A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

Volcanic hazards of North Island, New Zealand-overview

Science.gov (United States)

Dibble, R. R.; Nairn, I. A.; Neall, V. E.

1985-10-01

In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km 3 are credible.

Time-Dependent Risk Estimation and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation Actions

Science.gov (United States)

van Stiphout, T.; Wiemer, S.; Marzocchi, W.

2009-04-01

Earthquakes strongly cluster in space and time. Consequently, the most dangerous time is right after a moderate earthquake has happened, because their is a ‘high' (i.e., 2-5 percent) probability that this event will be followed by a subsequent aftershock which happens to be as large or larger than the initiating event. The seismic hazard during this time-period exceeds the background probability significantly and by several orders of magnitude. Scientists have developed increasingly accurate forecast models that model this time-dependent hazard, and such models are currently being validated in prospective testing. However, this probabilistic information in the hazard space is difficult to digest for decision makers, the media and general public. Here, we introduce a possible bridge between seismology and decision makers (authorities, civil defense) by proposing a more objective way to estimate time-dependent risk assessment. Short Term Earthquake Risk assessment (STEER) combines aftershock hazard and loss assessments. We use site-specific information on site effects and building class distribution and combine this with existing loss models to compute site specific time-dependent risk curves (probability of exceedance for fatalities, injuries, damages etc). We show the effect of uncertainties in the different components using Monte Carlo Simulations of the input parameters. This time-dependent risk curves can act as a decision support. We extend the STEER approach by introducing a Cost-Benefit approach for certain mitigation actions after a medium-sized earthquake. Such Cost-Benefit approaches have been recently developed for volcanic risk assessment to rationalize precautionary evacuations in densely inhabitated areas threatened by volcanoes. Here we extend the concept to time-dependent probabilistic seismic risk assessment. For the Cost-Benefit analysis of mitigation actions we calculate the ratio between the cost for the mitigation actions and the cost of the

Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

2001-01-01

The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

Volcanic risk; Risque volcanique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

1995-12-31

This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles` volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs.

Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, R. S.

2009-12-01

A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Wilkinson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

2001-01-01

precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

Residentś risk perception of and response to SO2 risk in east Iceland during the volcanic eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun 2014-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún

2016-04-01

organized special community meetings in the affected areas in order to inform and advise the inhabitants about consequences and preparedness of the SO2 risks. Here, we present the results from a survey conducted in both urban and rural communities east of the eruption site in order to investigate residentś perception and understanding of the risk, the efficiency of information and communication from officials during the eruption as well as the potential health effects from the SO2 pollution. In depth interviews were carried out with local authorities, Civil Protection officials and inhabitants in the SO2 affected areas with the aim to investigate their mitigation measures, response, and exposure during the eruption. It is important to identify public risk perception and their understanding of the pollution, and recognize factors that influence their preparedness during periods of heavy pollution in order to increase the society's resilience to volcanic risk.

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2005-01-01

In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

Science.gov (United States)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

2008-01-01

More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

2013-03-01

The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde, through a participatory approach: which outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

2014-09-01

This research paper presents the outcomes of Work Package 5 (socio-economical vulnerability assessment and community-based disaster risk reduction) of the MIAVITA (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) research programme conducted on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 years (May 2010 to January 2012), of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km wide caldera of the volcano inside Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the programme included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people to volcanic threats is linked to daily access to sources of livelihood, especially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk to their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such an objective, a participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participatory aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability of (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties in involving more

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

Volcanic risk: the responsibility of science in communication

Science.gov (United States)

Piccione, Caterina

2013-04-01

The knowledge of the places where we live comes both from the experience handed down from one generation to the other and from scientific knowledge. In some cases, natural risks are "invisible", such as earthquakes, in some other cases, natural risks are seemingly "invisible", such as a wall in danger of collapse or a valley in a flood zone. And besides all this, there is volcanic risk, where the power of the forces of nature appears in all its beauty and majesty. The possibility to see volcanoes, to perceive their changes, to observe them closely and the need to live with them, makes it very important for the population living in these areas to have an adequate knowledge of the risk, a knowledge that should be based on scientific research. In Italy the experience of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in the Vesuvio area, in the Aeolian Islands and around Etna shows how vital it is to make people aware of volcanic risk. Thanks to the support of the scientific community, the population can develop the best possible coexistence with volcanoes and with the risk they represent. These are extreme situations, but they are the starting point for educational and informative activities continuing to evolve and upgrade in parallel to the availability of new technologies and media and the progress of research that INGV has been conducting for years through specific projects. The scientific community and individual researchers have the ethical duty to share with the community the knowledge on risk, a responsibility that becomes especially important in those areas affected by volcanic risk. It is from this educational action that depends on the awareness of the populations with regard to the risk they are exposed to, that results in a responsible behavior in case of emergency, and that becomes the main variable for the safety of communities coexisting with active volcanoes.

Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde, through a participatory approach: which out coming?

Science.gov (United States)

Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

2013-11-01

This research paper presents the outcomes of the Work Package 5 (Socio-economical Vulnerability Assessment and Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction) of the MIAVITA Research Program (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) conducted in Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 yr (May 2010-January 2012) of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km-wide caldera of the volcano inside the Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the program included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people at volcanic threats is linked with daily access to sources of livelihood specially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk on their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such objective, a Participatory 3-Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participative aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties to involve more marginalized people

Education as a key objective of the interdisciplinary volcanic risk mitigation strategy VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE for developing resilient and sustainable areas around Vesuvius

Science.gov (United States)

Dobran, F.; Imperatrice, A.

2017-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE requires the achievement of 5 key objectives for Summa-Vesuvius area: (1) Development of temporary settlements for the inhabitants close to their native homeland until the volcanic crisis subsides; (2) Division of the danger zone into an exclusion nucleus that prohibits all future human settlements and discourages the existing ones, a resilience belt that houses most of the current populations, and a sustainable area beyond the resilience belt that allows for sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of resilience belt citizens following the volcanic crises; (3) Development of built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone by utilizing plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, global volcanic simulator, and dynamic structural analysis; (4) Implementation of volcanic risk information and education campaigns for different risk areas surrounding the volcano; and (5) Production of a memorandum of understanding between the authorities and scientific communities, and production of periodic progress reports for keeping the populations informed on the developments leading to the realization of the above objectives.For the past 20 years we have devoted considerable efforts towards the achievement of educational objectives. We worked with local volunteers and social and cultural organizations and with our colleagues delivered over 200 public and school seminars in 15 communities around Vesuvius, organized 2 international scientific meetings for allowing the public and high school children to interact directly with the scientists working on this volcano, and established numerous contacts with school teachers for helping them engage their students on Vesuvius from the scientific, artistic, social, and cultural perspectives. Every year GVES has been the promoter of Vesuvius area manifestations where the school children have the opportunities to expose their works on this volcano and

Chronology of the 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano, Japan: geological background, mechanism of volcanic unrest and disaster mitigation measures during the crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Mannen, Kazutaka; Yukutake, Yohei; Kikugawa, George; Harada, Masatake; Itadera, Kazuhiro; Takenaka, Jun

2018-04-01

The 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano was a very small phreatic eruption, with total erupted ash estimated to be in the order of only 102 m3 and ballistic blocks reaching less than 30 m from the vent. Precursors, however, had been recognized at least 2 months before the eruption and mitigation measures were taken by the local governments well in advance. In this paper, the course of precursors, the eruption and the post-eruptive volcanic activity are reviewed, and a preliminary model for the magma-hydrothermal process that caused the unrest and eruption is proposed. Also, mitigation measures taken during the unrest and eruption are summarized and discussed. The first precursors observed were an inflation of the deep source and deep low-frequency earthquakes in early April 2015; an earthquake swarm then started in late April. On May 3, steam wells in Owakudani, the largest fumarolic area on the volcano, started to blowout. Seismicity reached its maximum in mid-May and gradually decreased; however, at 7:32 local time on June 29, a shallow open crack was formed just beneath Owakudani as inferred from sudden tilt change and InSAR analysis. The same day mud flows and/or debris flows likely started before 11:00 and ash emission began at about 12:30. The volcanic unrest and the eruption of 2015 can be interpreted as a pressure increase in the hydrothermal system, which was triggered by magma replenishment to a deep magma chamber. Such a pressure increase was also inferred from the 2001 unrest and other minor unrests of Hakone volcano during the twenty-first century. In fact, monitoring of repeated periods of unrest enabled alerting prior to the 2015 eruption. However, since open crack formation seems to occur haphazardly, eruption prediction remains impossible and evacuation in the early phase of volcanic unrest is the only way to mitigate volcanic hazard.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2008-03-01

This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political

Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2015-04-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Schimmerling, W.

2004-01-01

Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

2016-01-01

Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

Risk Mitigation of Emerging Zoonoses: Hendra Virus and Non-Vaccinating Horse Owners.

Science.gov (United States)

Manyweathers, J; Field, H; Jordan, D; Longnecker, N; Agho, K; Smith, C; Taylor, M

2017-12-01

Hendra virus was identified in horses and humans in 1994, in Queensland, Australia. Flying foxes are the natural host. Horses are thought to acquire infection by direct or indirect contact with infected flying fox urine. Humans are infected from close contact with infected horses. To reduce risk of infection in horses and humans, Australian horse owners are encouraged to vaccinate horses against the virus and adopt property risk mitigation practices that focus on reducing flying fox horse contact and contamination of horses' environment with flying fox bodily fluids. This study investigates uptake of four Hendra virus risk mitigation practices in a sample of non- and partially vaccinating horse owners living close to previous Hendra virus cases. Protection motivation theory was used to develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perception and coping factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices. An online survey was administered via Facebook pages of veterinary clinics close to previous Hendra virus cases. Factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices were investigated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Belief that a risk mitigation practice would be effective in reducing Hendra virus risk was significantly associated with the uptake of that practice. Issues around the practicality of implementing risk mitigation practices were found to be the greatest barrier to uptake. Factors that relate to risk immediacy, such as nearby infection, were identified as more likely to trigger uptake of risk mitigation practices. The role of veterinarians in supporting Hendra risk mitigation was identified as more influential than that of respected others or friends. Findings from this study are being used to assist stakeholders in Australia responsible for promotion of risk mitigation practice in identifying additional pathways and reliable influencing factors that could be utilized for engaging and communicating with horse

INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Temitope Egbelakin

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation. .

Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

2013-01-01

Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

2015-12-01

are aware about the governmental commitment to assume a strategic planning for mitigation, facing a volcanic emergency. Recently, university undergraduate students from Chile and Argentina are networking to acquire the skills needed for a better preparedness to the next volcanic eruption.

Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (5

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matić Vesna

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (3

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matić Vesna

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (6

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matić Vesna

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

Seismic and volcanic risk in the Azores: reasons to stay in endangered places

OpenAIRE

Arroz, Ana Margarida Moura; Palos, Ana Cristina Pires; Rego, Isabel Estrela

2008-01-01

SRA 2008 Annual Meeting "Risk Analysis: The Science and the Art", Boston, Massachusetts, Sunday, 7 December 2008 to Wednesday, 10 December 2008. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have been regular phenomena throughout the Azores' six centuries of history. In spite of the knowledge already gathered by local historians and Earth sciences researchers, there are no scientific data on the socio-cultural dimensions of volcanic and seismic risks. A study – TOPOI METUS. Social cosmographies of d...

Making the decision to mitigate risk

Science.gov (United States)

Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

2007-01-01

Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

2013-01-01

The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goede, A.P.H.; Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de

2010-01-01

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

1996-01-01

An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

Science.gov (United States)

Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

2015-01-01

Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarlo, Antonella

2008-01-01

The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a

Earth Girl Volcano: An Interactive Casual Game about Complex Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlow, I.

2017-12-01

Earth Girl Volcano is an interactive casual strategy game for disaster preparedness. The project is designed for mainstream audiences, particularly for children, as an engaging and fun way to learn about volcano hazards, monitoring, and mitigation strategies. The game is deceptively simple but it provides a toolbox to address practically all volcanic hazards ranging from gas and ash fall to pyroclastic flows, lava and lahars. This presentation shows the basic dynamic to explore the area, assess the risk, choose the best-suited tools and execute a mitigation strategy within the available budget. This game is a real-time simulation of a crowd evacuation that allows players to intervene before and during the disaster.

Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

2003-07-01

Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

Volcanic hazards to airports

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

2009-01-01

, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries - USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom - have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

The scientific management of volcanic crises

Science.gov (United States)

Marzocchi, Warner; Newhall, Christopher; Woo, Gordon

2012-12-01

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2013-12-01

This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

2013-04-01

index to address the varying data quality between source reports. An auxiliary aim of this database is to provide guidelines for researchers for what impact data should be collected following an eruption. As a repository of infrastructure impact data, our database will be a valuable resource for researchers and organisations engaged in volcanic risk assessment, vulnerability studies and development of mitigation strategies.

Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

2016-04-01

In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

2012-09-01

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

2014-12-01

Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jasper Mbachu

2014-12-01

Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. K. Bird

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

The future of volcanic ash-aircraft interactions from technical and policy perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Casadevall, T. J.; Guffanti, M.

2010-12-01

growth in the risks facing aviation operation owing to volcanic ash hazard (http://www2.icao.int/en/anb/met-aim/met/ivatf/Documents/Final.Alltext.pdf) Modifications of international procedures for air traffic management, a new assessment of equipment vulnerability, and efforts to detect and to more precisely forecast the distribution and concentration of volcanic ash are underway. These efforts will result in modification and updating of current practices for advising and warning pilots and airspace managers about volcanic ash, and also in better understandings of the threat volcanic ash presents to aviation operations. While technical and policy changes will help improve flight safety, there continues to be a role for earth scientists to work with the aviation community to improve monitoring of volcanoes, especially in remote regions, and in understanding of explosive volcanic processes. A paramount need continues for improved communications amongst all of the scientific and technical parties to address and successfully mitigate the risks of volcanic ash to aviation operations.

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

2018-04-01

Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Gilliam, David P.

2004-01-01

A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Kälin

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

Mitigating flood exposure: Reducing disaster risk and trauma signature.

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city's worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods . We applied the "trauma signature analysis" (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results . Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion . In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

2014-07-01

Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

Science.gov (United States)

Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

Science.gov (United States)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

Science.gov (United States)

Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

2009-01-01

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Geiger, Karl

2010-05-01

Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

2009-01-01

Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

Science.gov (United States)

Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

2015-08-01

Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted

ASI-Volcanic Risk System (SRV): a pilot project to develop EO data processing modules and products for volcanic activity monitoring, first results.

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestri, M.; Musacchio, M.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Dini, L.

2009-04-01

The Project called Sistema Rischio Vulcanico (SRV) is funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in the frame of the National Space Plan 2003-2005 under the Earth Observations section for natural risks management. The SRV Project is coordinated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) which is responsible at national level for the volcanic monitoring. The project philosophy is to implement, by incremental versions, specific modules which allow to process, store and visualize through Web GIS tools geophysical parameters suitable for volcanic risk management. The ASI-SRV is devoted to the development of an integrated system based on Earth Observation (EO) data to respond to specific needs of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) and improve the monitoring of Italian active volcanoes during all the risk phases (Pre Crisis, Crisis and Post Crisis). The ASI-SRV system provides support to risk managers during the different volcanic activity phases and its results are addressed to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). SRV provides the capability to manage the import many different EO data into the system, it maintains a repository where the acquired data have to be stored and generates selected volcanic products. The processing modules for EO Optical sensors data are based on procedures jointly developed by INGV and University of Modena. This procedures allow to estimate a number of parameters such as: surface thermal proprieties, gas, aerosol and ash emissions and to characterize the volcanic products in terms of composition and geometry. For the analysis of the surface thermal characteristics, the available algorithms allow to extract information during the prevention phase and during the Warning and Crisis phase. In the prevention phase the thermal analysis is directed to the identification of temperature variation on volcanic structure which may indicate a change in the volcanic activity state. At the moment the only sensor that

Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

Science.gov (United States)

M. Hurteau; M. North

2010-01-01

Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

2015-12-01

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

2014-05-01

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel

2006-01-01

The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high. Rainwater was of good quality in the monsoon but deteriorated in the dry season. Deep tubewells showed microbial contamination in the monsoon but not in the dry season and was the only technology to approach the World Health Organization's reference level of risk of 10-6 DALYs. A few dugwells and one pond-sand filter showed arsenic in excess of 50 μg/L. The findings suggest that deep tubewells and rainwater harvesting provide safer water than dugwells and pond-sand filters and should be the preferred options. PMID:17366776

Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

2017-12-01

Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-03

...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

2014-11-01

One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-01-28

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO₂ injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO₂ injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO₂ storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO₂-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

2017-12-01

Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

Science.gov (United States)

Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

2018-01-01

In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

Science.gov (United States)

Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

Science.gov (United States)

Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

2014-07-01

The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

2011-07-01

The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

2016-04-01

Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

2005-02-01

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

1998-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hickey, James; Gottsmann, Joachim; Nakamichi, Haruhisa; Iguchi, Masato

2016-01-01

Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide. PMID:27619897

Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickey, James; Gottsmann, Joachim; Nakamichi, Haruhisa; Iguchi, Masato

2016-09-13

Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide.

Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; M. F. Graswinckel,; M.R. de Baar,

2010-01-01

A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1980-08-01

An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

Value of Earth Observation for Risk Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Pearlman, F.; Shapiro, C. D.; Grasso, M.; Pearlman, J.; Adkins, J. E.; Pindilli, E.; Geppi, D.

2017-12-01

Societal benefits flowing from Earth observation are intuitively obvious as we use the information to assess natural hazards (such as storm tracks), water resources (such as flooding and droughts in coastal and riverine systems), ecosystem vitality and other dynamics that impact the health and economic well being of our population. The most powerful confirmation of these benefits would come from quantifying the impact and showing direct quantitative links in the value chain from data to decisions. However, our ability to identify and quantify those benefits is challenging. The impact of geospatial data on these types of decisions is not well characterized and assigning a true value to the observations on a broad scale across disciplines still remains to be done in a systematic way. This presentation provides the outcomes of a workshop held in October 2017 as a side event of the GEO Plenary that addressed research on economic methodologies for quantification of impacts. To achieve practical outputs during the meeting, the workshop focused on the use and value of Earth observations in risk mitigation including: ecosystem impacts, weather events, and other natural and manmade hazards. Case studies on approaches were discussed and will be part of this presentation. The presentation will also include the exchange of lessons learned and a discussion of gaps in the current understanding of the use and value of earth observation information for risk mitigation.

Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards: Part II. Validation of satellite-derived Volcanic Sulphur Dioxide Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Koukouli, MariLiza; Balis, Dimitris; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Clarisse, Lieven; Carboni, Elisa; Hedelt, Pascal; Spinetti, Claudia; Theys, Nicolas; Tampellini, Lucia; Zehner, Claus

2014-05-01

The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in the spring of 2010 turned the attention of both the public and the scientific community to the susceptibility of the European airspace to the outflows of large volcanic eruptions. The ash-rich plume from Eyjafjallajökull drifted towards Europe and caused major disruptions of European air traffic for several weeks affecting the everyday life of millions of people and with a strong economic impact. This unparalleled situation revealed limitations in the decision making process due to the lack of information on the tolerance to ash of commercial aircraft engines as well as limitations in the ash monitoring and prediction capabilities. The European Space Agency project Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards, was introduced to facilitate the development of an optimal End-to-End System for Volcanic Ash Plume Monitoring and Prediction. This system is based on comprehensive satellite-derived ash plume and sulphur dioxide [SO2] level estimates, as well as a widespread validation using supplementary satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements. The validation of volcanic SO2 levels extracted from the sensors GOME-2/MetopA and IASI/MetopA are shown here with emphasis on the total column observed right before, during and after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions. Co-located ground-based Brewer Spectrophotometer data extracted from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, WOUDC, were compared to the different satellite estimates. The findings are presented at length, alongside a comprehensive discussion of future scenarios.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-05-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John W.

2011-01-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John W. Collins

2011-09-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1979-01-01

Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

and benefits of mitigation actions have to be evaluated and compared, weighting them with the probability of occurrence of a specific threatening volcanic event. An action should be taken when the benefit of that action outweighs the costs. It is worth remarking that this strategy does not guarantee to recommend a decision that we would have taken with the benefit of hindsight. However, this strategy will be successful over the long-tem. Furthermore, it has the overwhelming advantage of providing a quantitative decision rule that is set before any emergency, and thus it will be justifiable at any stage of the process. In our present application, we are trying to set up a cost-benefit scheme for the call of an evacuation to protect people in the Auckland Volcanic Field against base surge invasion. Considering the heterogeneity of the urban environment and the size of the region at risk, we propose a cost-benefit scheme that is space dependent, to take into account higher costs when an eruption threatens sensible sites for the city and/or the nation, such as the international airport or the harbour. Finally, we compare our findings with the present Contingency Plan for Auckland.

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2015-01-01

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major

Polo pony injuries: player-owner reported risk, perception, mitigation and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Inness, C M; Morgan, K L

2015-07-01

Polo, one of the world's oldest sports, is unique in merging human skill and balance with animal agility and performance in a contact sport. These modern-day 'centaurs' offer medical, dental and veterinary scientists an unrivalled, if quirky, opportunity to collaborate. Collection of epidemiological data on injuries to UK polo riders and ponies is the first step. To measure the reported risk and risk factors for injuries to UK polo ponies, their perception and mitigation by player-owners. A retrospective cohort design and telephone interviews were used. Data on equine injuries, preseason training and risk perception were collected from a random sample of player-owners using a structured questionnaire. Injuries were defined as requiring veterinary treatment. Frequencies were represented as percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Risk factors for injuries were identified by univariable and multivariable analyses. The cumulative incidence of player-owner-reported injury was 10.6% (95% CI 8.4-12.7). Tendon injuries were most common (4.3%; 95% CI 2.9-5.7), followed by wounds and splints. The only risk factor was stabling all season (odds ratio 4.79; 95% CI 1.46-15.73). Tendon injuries were perceived as the major risk and hard ground the most important risk factor. Risk mitigation practices were bandaging before exercise (45.7%; 95% CI 34.8-56.5), checking tendons (84.0%; 95% CI 76.0-91.9), cold hosing (40.7%; 95% CI 30.0-51.4), bandaging (38.3%; 95% CI 27.7-48.9) and using clays and coolants after exercise (24.7%; 15.3-34.1). Cuts and wounds were considered most frequent by only 2.5% (95% CI 0.0-3.6) of players but were the second most common injury, accounting for 21.6% of veterinary treatments. Splints accounted for 12.5% of injuries. The risk of injury to polo ponies is similar to that in the general horse population; musculoskeletal injuries, particularly tendon injuries, are most common, followed by wounds and splints. The association between stabling and

Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suryanto

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

2014-12-01

Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Centofanti, Tiziana; McConnell, Laura L.; Chaney, Rufus L.; Beyer, W. Nelson; Andrade, Natasha A.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Torrents, Alba; Nguyen, Anh; Anderson, Marya O.; Novak, Jeffrey M.

2016-01-01

Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues to Lumbricus terrestris L. relative to the unamended control soil was assessed using 4-L soil microcosms with and without plant cover in a 48-day experiment. The use of aged dairy manure compost and biosolids compost was found to be effective, especially in the planted treatments, at lowering the bioavailability factor (BAF) by 18–39%; however, BAF results for DDT in the unplanted soil treatments were unaffected or increased. The pine chip biochar utilized in this experiment was ineffective at lower the BAF of pesticides in the soil. The US EPA Soil Screening Level approach was used with our measured values. Addition of 10% of the aged dairy manure compost reduced the average hazard quotient values to below 1.0 for DDT + DDE and dieldrin. Results indicate this sustainable approach is appropriate to minimize risks to wildlife in areas of marginal organochlorine pesticide contamination. Application of this remediation approach has potential for use internationally in areas where historical pesticide contamination of soils remains a threat to wildlife populations. - Highlights: • Historical applications of organochlorine pesticides are a risk to local ecosystems. • Low cost and sustainable mitigation measures are needed to reduce risks. • Organic matter rich amendments were added to contaminated soil. • Earthworms microcosms were used to measure bioaccumulation factors. • Aged composts were most effective at mitigating risks to ecosystems. - Incorporation of aged dairy manure and biosolids compost amendments is an effective, low cost approach to mitigate risks to terrestrial wildlife from organochlorine pesticides in soils.

Volcanic hazards in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, William I.; Bluth, Gregg J.S.; Carr, Michael J.; Ewert, John W.; Patino, Lina C.; Vallance, James W.

2006-01-01

This volume is a sampling of current scientific work about volcanoes in Central America with specific application to hazards. The papers reflect a variety of international and interdisciplinary collaborations and employ new methods. The book will be of interest to a broad cross section of scientists, especially volcanologists. The volume also will interest students who aspire to work in the field of volcano hazards mitigation or who may want to work in one of Earth’s most volcanically active areas.

Using the Steel Vessel Material-Cost Index to Mitigate Shipbuilder Risk

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Keating, Edward G; Murphy, Robert; Schank, John F; Birkler, John

2008-01-01

This paper describes how the US Navy structures fixed-price and fixed-price, incentive-fee shipbuilding contracts and how labor- and material-cost indexes can mitigate shipbuilder risk in either type of contract...

Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

2014-01-01

Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency pers...

Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

Science.gov (United States)

2009-10-01

The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear-waste repository in the southern Great Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Carr, W.J.

1980-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies of the southern Great Basin are being conducted on behalf of the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations program. Current work is chiefly concerned with characterizing the geology, chronology, and tectonic setting of Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism in the Nevada Test Site region, and assessing volcanic risk through consequence and probability studies, particularly with respect to a potential site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site. Young ( - 6 volcanic events per year. Based on this rate, the annual probability of disruption of a 10-km 2 repository located within a 25-km radius circle centered at Yucca Mountain, southwestern Nevada Test Site, is 10 - 8 . A larger area, 50-km radius, yields a disruption probability of 10 - 9 per year. Current tectonic zonation studies of the southern Great Basin will reduce the calculated probabilities of basaltic eruption for certain areas. 21 references, 3 figures

Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

2013-04-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

Science.gov (United States)

Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

2012-04-01

The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... a false sense of security to flood plain dwellers and thereby encouraging investments in flood prone areas.

Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

2011-01-01

CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.

Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

2015-03-01

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

Science.gov (United States)

,; ,

2007-01-01

The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

INVITED ARTICLE James M. Hughes and Mary E. Wilson, Section Editors Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical...for risk mitigation. Few data on the epidemiology of infectious diseases occurring among traveling health care workers (HCWs) exist. Surveillance... Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.

2004-01-01

Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai'i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Huala??lai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults ( n =462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Huala??lai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an 'unrealistic optimism bias' and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

On a Possible Unified Scaling Law for Volcanic Eruption Durations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cannavò, Flavio; Nunnari, Giuseppe

2016-03-01

Volcanoes constitute dissipative systems with many degrees of freedom. Their eruptions are the result of complex processes that involve interacting chemical-physical systems. At present, due to the complexity of involved phenomena and to the lack of precise measurements, both analytical and numerical models are unable to simultaneously include the main processes involved in eruptions thus making forecasts of volcanic dynamics rather unreliable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of some eruption parameters, such as the duration, could be a key factor in natural hazard estimation and mitigation. Analyzing a large database with most of all the known volcanic eruptions, we have determined that the duration of eruptions seems to be described by a universal distribution which characterizes eruption duration dynamics. In particular, this paper presents a plausible global power-law distribution of durations of volcanic eruptions that holds worldwide for different volcanic environments. We also introduce a new, simple and realistic pipe model that can follow the same found empirical distribution. Since the proposed model belongs to the family of the self-organized systems it may support the hypothesis that simple mechanisms can lead naturally to the emergent complexity in volcanic behaviour.

The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Krueger, Arlin J.

1999-01-01

The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

2015-01-01

that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance....... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-09-01

High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

CERN Document Server

Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

2014-01-01

This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies

OpenAIRE

Lankoande, Mariam D.; Yoder, Jonathan K.; Wandschneider, Philip R.

2006-01-01

Contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management cost-sharing programs are becoming more prevalent in western states. This paper develops a model to examine the incentive effects of these two mechanisms for private investment in wildfire risk mitigation. The model shows that contingent insurance contracts strengthen incentives for risk mitigation relative to pooled contracts and subsidies induce more risk mitigation effort by reducing margin private costs of mitigation. With pooled insurance...

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nurses' Perceptions of Implementing Fall Prevention Interventions to Mitigate Patient-Specific Fall Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret; Ripley, Robert; Titler, Marita G

2016-08-01

Evidence-based (EB) fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors are readily available but not routinely used in practice. Few studies have examined nurses' perceptions about both the use of these EB interventions and implementation strategies designed to promote their adoption. This article reports qualitative findings of nurses' perceptions about use of EB fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks, and implementation strategies to promote use of these interventions. The findings revealed five major themes: before-study fall prevention practices, use of EB fall prevention interventions tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors, beneficial implementation strategies, overall impact on approach to fall prevention, and challenges These findings are useful to guide nurses' engagement and use of EB fall prevention practices tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors. © The Author(s) 2016.

Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

2010-11-01

A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

Mitigating construction safety risks using prevention through design.

Science.gov (United States)

Gangolells, Marta; Casals, Miquel; Forcada, Núria; Roca, Xavier; Fuertes, Alba

2010-04-01

Research and practice have demonstrated that decisions made prior to work at construction sites can influence construction worker safety. However, it has also been argued that most architects and design engineers possess neither the knowledge of construction safety nor the knowledge of construction processes necessary to effectively perform Construction Hazards Prevention through Design (CHPtD). This paper introduces a quantitative methodology that supports designers by providing a way to evaluate the safety-related performance of residential construction designs using a risk analysis-based approach. The methodology compares the overall safety risk level of various construction designs and ranks the significance of the various safety risks of each of these designs. The methodology also compares the absolute importance of a particular safety risk in various construction designs. Because the methodology identifies the relevance of each safety risk at a particular site prior to the construction stage, significant risks are highlighted in advance. Thus, a range of measures for mitigating safety risks can then be implemented during on-site construction. The methodology is specially worthwhile for designers, who can compare construction techniques and systems during the design phase and determine the corresponding level of safety risk without their creative talents being restricted. By using this methodology, construction companies can improve their on-site safety performance. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Presenting Numerical Modelling of Explosive Volcanic Eruption to a General Public

Science.gov (United States)

Demaria, C.; Todesco, M.; Neri, A.; Blasi, G.

2001-12-01

Numerical modeling of explosive volcanic eruptions has been widely applied, during the last decades, to study pyroclastic flows dispersion along volcano's flanks and to evaluate their impact on urban areas. Results from these transient multi-phase and multi-component simulations are often reproduced in form of computer animations, representing the spatial and temporal evolution of relevant flow variables (such as temperature, or particle concentration). Despite being a sophisticated, technical tool to analyze and share modeling results within the scientific community, these animations truly look like colorful cartoons showing an erupting volcano and are especially suited to be shown to a general public. Thanks to their particular appeal, and to the large interest usually risen by exploding volcanoes, these animations have been presented several times on television and magazines and are currently displayed in a permanent exposition, at the Vesuvius Observatory in Naples. This work represents an effort to produce an accompanying tool for these animations, capable of explaining to a large audience the scientific meaning of what can otherwise look as a graphical exercise. Dealing with research aimed at the study of dangerous, explosive volcanoes, improving the general understanding of these scientific results plays an important role as far as risk perception is concerned. An educated population has better chances to follow an appropriate behavior, i.e.: one that could lead, on the long period, to a reduction of the potential risk. In this sense, a correct divulgation of scientific results, while improving the confidence of the population in the scientific community, should belong to the strategies adopted to mitigate volcanic risk. Due to the relevance of the long term final goal of such divulgation experiment, this work represents an interdisciplinary effort, combining scientific expertise and specific competence from the modern communication science and risk

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

Erionite and other fibrous zeolites in volcanic environments: the need for a risk assessment in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Cavallo, A.; Rimoldi, B.

2012-04-01

linked to erionite in Italy is extremely scarce: INAIL, through its database of occupational diseases, can provide essential information for epidemiological research. An effective risk assessment in Italy will require coordinated actions from government agencies, local health authorities, Universities and research centers, in order to record the actual presence of fibrous zeolites, recognizing mineral species and quantifying their abundance in rock deposits. The different geological conditions through time of volcanic deposits will be compared with an updated "database" on the physical-chemical-geological conditions of formation of zeolites. In sites where the presence of fibrous zeolites has been validated by laboratory tests, we will proceed with accurate field surveys and sampling campaigns, in order to determine detailed geological-stratigraphic and structural features, and resolving precisely the thickness, areal extent and volume of lithostratigraphic units containing these minerals. These data will be entered into a GIS to produce a result that can be used immediately and in the long-period by research institutes, local authorities and regional agencies for environmental protection. In sites where the presence of hazardous fibrous minerals has been validated, we will plan airborne fibers sampling campaigns, and we will assess the extent of airborne dispersion produced by natural agents and by man activity. In the case that these sites host active mining or quarrying activities, we will quantify the airborne fibers contamination at workplaces and propose measures for environmental risk mitigation.

Japanese-South African collaboration to mitigate seismic risks in deep gold mines

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Ogasawara, H

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Japanese-South African collaborative project entitled "Observational study to mitigate seismic risks in mines". The project will build on previous studies carried out by Japanese seismologists in South African mines, and will develop human and instrumental...

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

Science.gov (United States)

Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

2014-03-01

To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.

Risks mitigation in the poulty sub-sector in Oyo state: A case study of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Risks and uncertainties associated with agricultural business have to a great extent undermined the productivity and sustainability of the agricultural sector by reducing the availability of institutional credit for investment in agriculture. Hence, this article examined the risks mitigating functions of the Nigerian Agricultural ...

Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

Science.gov (United States)

James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

2014-01-01

Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster's mitigation communication and education strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani

2015-04-01

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won't be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia.

Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

Science.gov (United States)

Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

2017-01-01

The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

jen

ABSTRACT: The study has the major objective of evaluating flood risk mitigation strategies in the Niger. Delta, a coastal region of Nigeria that suffers from perennial flooding. The Raper argues that the structural methods of flood control tends to give a false sense of security to flood plain dwellers and thereby encouraging.

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

2013-01-01

To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

2008-01-01

Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

2016-01-01

Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Hincks, T. K.; Aspinall, W. P.; Baxter, P. J.; Searl, A.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Woo, G.

2006-01-01

Frequent ash fallout from long-lived eruptions (with active phases greater than 5 years) may lead to local populations experiencing unacceptably high cumulative exposures to respirable particulate matter. Ash from Montserrat has been shown to contain significant levels of cristobalite and other reactive agents that are associated with an increased risk of developing pneumoconiosis (including silicosis) and other long-term health problems. There are a number of difficulties associated with estimating risks in populations due to uncertain and wide ranging individual exposures, change in behaviour with time and the natural variation in individual response. Present estimates of risk in workers and other population groups are simplifications based on a limited number of exposure measurements taken on Montserrat (1996-1999), and exposure-response curves from epidemiological studies of coal workers exposed to siliceous dust. In this paper we present a method for calculating the long-term cumulative exposure to cristobalite from volcanic ash by Monte Carlo simulation. Code has been written to generate synthetic time series for volcanic activity, rainfall, ash deposition and erosion to give daily ash deposit values and cristobalite fraction at a range of locations. The daily mean personal exposure for PM10 and cristobalite is obtained by sampling from a probability distribution, with distribution parameters dependent on occupation, ground deposit depth and daily weather conditions. Output from multiple runs is processed to calculate the exceedance probability for cumulative exposure over a range of occupation types, locations and exposure periods. Results are interpreted in terms of current occupational standards, and epidemiological exposure-response functions for silicosis are applied to quantify the long-term health risk. Assuming continuing volcanic activity, median risk of silicosis (profusion 1/0 or higher) for an average adult after 20 years continuous exposure is

Update of the volcanic risk map of Colima volcano, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nuñez Cornu, F. J.; Marquez-Azua, B.

2010-12-01

The Colima volcano, located in western Mexico (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W) began its current eruptive process in February 10, 1999. This event was the basis for the development of two volcanic hazard maps: one for ballistics (rock fall) lahars, and another one for ash fall. During the period of 2003 to 2008 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-Plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano thanks to the low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time The current volcanic activity has triggered ballistic projections, pyroclastic and ash flows, and lahars, all have exceeded the maps limits established in 1999. Vulnerable elements within these areas have gradually changed due to the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano. On the slopes of the northwest side, new blue agave Tequilana weber and avocado orchard crops have emerged along with important production of greenhouse tomato, alfalfa and fruit (citrus) crops that will eventually be processed and dried for exportation to the United States and Europe. Also, in addition to the above, large expanses of corn and sugar cane have been planted on the slopes of the volcano since the nineteenth century. The increased agricultural activity has had a direct impact in the reduction of the available forest land area. Coinciding with this increased activity, the 0.8% growth population during the period of 2000 - 2005, - due to the construction of the Guadalajara-Colima highway-, also increased this impact. The growth in vulnerability changed the level of risk with respect to the one identified in the year 1999 (Suarez, 2000), thus motivating us to perform an update to the risk map at 1:25,000 using vector models of the INEGI, SPOT images of different dates, and fieldwork done in order

“Points requiring elucidation” about Hawaiian volcanism: Chapter 24

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Michael P.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

2015-01-01

Hawaiian volcanoes, which are easily accessed and observed at close range, are among the most studied on the planet and have spurred great advances in the geosciences, from understanding deep Earth processes to forecasting volcanic eruptions. More than a century of continuous observation and study of Hawai‘i's volcanoes has also sharpened focus on those questions that remain unanswered. Although there is good evidence that volcanism in Hawai‘i is the result of a high-temperature upwelling plume from the mantle, the source composition and dynamics of the plume are controversial. Eruptions at the surface build the volcanoes of Hawai‘i, but important topics, including how the volcanoes grow and collapse and how magma is stored and transported, continue to be subjects of intense research. Forecasting volcanic activity is based mostly on pattern recognition, but determining and predicting the nature of eruptions, especially in serving the critical needs of hazards mitigation, require more realistic models and a greater understanding of what drives eruptive activity. These needs may be addressed by better integration among disciplines as well as by developing dynamic physics- and chemistry-based models that more thoroughly relate the physiochemical behavior of Hawaiian volcanism, from the deep Earth to the surface, to geological, geochemical, and geophysical data.

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

2018-05-02

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

2013-12-01

Volatiles in magmas are the driving force of volcanic eruptions and quantification of volcanic gas flux and composition is important for the volcano monitoring. Recently we developed a portable gas sensor system (Multi-GAS) to quantify the volcanic gas composition by measuring volcanic plumes and obtained volcanic gas compositions of actively degassing volcanoes. As the Multi-GAS measures variation of volcanic gas component concentrations in the pumped air (volcanic plume), we need to bring the apparatus into the volcanic plume. Commonly the observer brings the apparatus to the summit crater by himself but such measurements are not possible under conditions of high risk of volcanic eruption or difficulty to approach the summit due to topography etc. In order to overcome these difficulties, volcanic plume measurements were performed by using manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. The volcanic plume measurements by manned aerial vehicles, however, are also not possible under high risk of eruption. The strict regulation against the modification of the aircraft, such as installing sampling pipes, also causes difficulty due to the high cost. Application of the UAVs for the volcanic plume measurements has a big advantage to avoid these problems. The Multi-GAS consists of IR-CO2 and H2O gas analyzer, SO2-H2O chemical sensors and H2 semiconductor sensor and the total weight ranges 3-6 kg including batteries. The necessary conditions of the UAV for the volcanic plumes measurements with the Multi-GAS are the payloads larger than 3 kg, maximum altitude larger than the plume height and installation of the sampling pipe without contamination of the exhaust gases, as the exhaust gases contain high concentrations of H2, SO2 and CO2. Up to now, three different types of UAVs were applied for the measurements; Kite-plane (Sky Remote) at Miyakejima operated by JMA, Unmanned airplane (Air Photo Service) at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano, and Unmanned helicopter (Yamaha) at Sakurajima

Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

2014-05-01

In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

The use of management controls to mitigate risk in strategic alliances: Field and survey evidence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anderson, S.W.; Christ, M.; Dekker, H.C.; Sedatole, K.L.

2014-01-01

Transaction cost economics (TCE) theory is widely used to study the governance and management control practices used to mitigate interfirm alliance risk. Following Williamson (1985, 1991), empirical studies typically measure transaction characteristics that proxy for risk in alliances (e.g., asset

Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alix, A.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

2010-01-01

The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruce M. Crowe; Frank V. Perry; Greg A. Valentine; Lynn M. Bowker

1998-12-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster’s mitigation communication and education strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani

2015-01-01

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won’t be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster’s mitigation communication and education strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani, E-mail: nova.zp@gmail.com, E-mail: alvanov@fsrd.itb.ac.id [Visual Communication Design Study Program, Faculty of Art and Design, Institut Teknologi Bandung Jalan Ganesa No. 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won’t be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia.

[Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

2011-10-01

The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

2015-01-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

2011-12-01

Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

Health care worker decompression sickness: incidence, risk and mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Richard

2017-01-01

Inadvertent exposure to radiation, chemical agents and biological factors are well recognized hazards associated with the health care delivery system. Less well appreciated yet no less harmful is risk of decompression sickness in those who accompany patients as inside attendants (IAs) during provision of hyperbaric oxygen therapy. Unlike the above hazards where avoidance is practiced, IA exposure to decompression sickness risk is unavoidable. While overall incidence is low, when calculated as number of cases over number of exposures or potential for a case during any given exposure, employee cumulative risk, defined here as number of cases over number of IAs, or risk that an IA may suffer a case, is not. Commonly, this unique occupational environmental injury responds favorably to therapeutic recompression and a period of recuperation. There are, however, permanent and career-ending consequences, and at least two nurses have succumbed to their decompression insults. The intent of this paper is to heighten awareness of hyperbaric attendant decompression sickness. It will serve as a review of reported cases and reconcile incidence against largely ignored individual worker risk. Mitigation strategies are summarized and an approach to more precisely identify risk factors that might prompt development of consensus screening standards is proposed. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Becerril

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caddy, D.G.

1993-01-01

In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

The Perception of Volcanic Risk in Kona Communities from Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Hawai`i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

2002-12-01

Hawai`i's coastal communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards as a consequence of increasing population and infrastructure. Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e., western side of the island) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes. The former has erupted thirty-nine times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during six of these, but last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualalai last erupted in c. 1800. The most recent eruptions at each volcano were damaging to society, but future eruptions would exact much greater impacts. The second largest city on the island, several resort complexes, and an international airport are located within 15 km of vents. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources, a potential for relatively fast moving lavas, and the relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high school students and their parents, and the greater adult public (n=462). Using this data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception and perceptions as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average less than two-thirds of residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualalai could erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in under three hours. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community. Not unexpectedly, individual preparedness measures were found to be limited to simple tasks, while measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes were seldom adopted. Respondents exhibit an "unrealistic optimism bias" and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions rests primarily with officials. Hazard

A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2012-01-01

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual

Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

2009-01-01

In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cao, Chun [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu (China); Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); Jia, Hui-Hui [State High-Tech Industrial Innovation Center, Shenzhen 518057, Guangdong (China); Wang, Jun-Jian, E-mail: junjian.wang@utoronto.ca [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto M1C 1A4 (Canada)

2016-08-01

Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

2016-01-01

Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Ian G J

2018-05-16

The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

Science.gov (United States)

Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

2014-01-01

The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

2005-01-01

Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Malheiro, A.

2006-08-01

The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Markus Liebig

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie Fournier

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

2018-05-09

Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlock, Kate M.

2011-01-01

Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer

Science.gov (United States)

Stransky, Arnaud; Chevalier, Laurent; Dubuc, Francois; Conde-Reis, Alain; Ledoux, Alain; Miramont, Philippe; Johansson, Leif

2010-08-01

In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang.

1992-01-01

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85 x 10 -6 /yr, 1.26 x 10 -5 /yr). Also, using these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10 4 years is (1.0 x 10 -3 , 6.7 x 10 -3 ), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

Science.gov (United States)

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suryanto Suryanto

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake-resistant building, control ability, income level, classifi cation of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the fi ndings were consistent with the expected utility theory. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso

Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sea Eun Cho

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

2005-01-01

natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

Fault propagation folds induced by gravitational failure and slumping of the Central Costa Rica volcanic range: Implications for large terrestrial and Martian volcanic edifices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgia, A.; Burr, J.; Montero, W.; Morales, L.D.; Alvarado, G.E.

1990-01-01

Long sublinear ridges and related scarps located at the base of large volcanic structures are frequently interpreted as normal faults associated with extensional regional stress. In contrast, the ridges bordering the Central Costa Rica volcanic range (CCRVR) are the topographic expression of hanging wall asymmetric angular anticlines overlying low-angle thrust faults at the base of the range. These faults formed by gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of the range due to the weight of the volcanic edifices and were perhaps triggered by the intrusion of magma over the past 20,000 years. These anticlines are hypothesized to occur along the base of the volcano, where the thrust faults ramp up toward the sea bottom. Ridges and scarps between 2,000 and 5,000 m below sea level are interpreted as the topographic expression of these folds. The authors further suggest that the scarps of the CCRVR and valid scaled terrestrial analogs of the perimeter scarp of the Martian volcano Olympus Mons. They suggest that the crust below Olympus Mons has failed under the load of the volcano, triggering the radial slumping of the flanks of the volcano on basal thrusts. The thrusting would have, in turn, formed the anticlinal ridges and scarps that surround the edifice. The thrust faults may extend all the way to the base of the Martian crust (about 40 km), and they may have been active until almost the end of the volcanic activity. They suggest that gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of volcanoes is a process common to most large volcanic edifices. In the CCRVR this slumping of the flanks is a slow intermittent process, but it could evolve to rapid massive avalanching leading to catastrophic eruptions. Thus monitoring of uplift and displacement of the folds related to the slump tectonics could become an additional effective method for mitigating volcanic hazards

Automated detection and cataloging of global explosive volcanism using the International Monitoring System infrasound network

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, Robin S.; Green, David N.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Shearer, Peter M.; Fee, David; Mialle, Pierrick; Ceranna, Lars

2017-04-01

We experiment with a new method to search systematically through multiyear data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network to identify explosive volcanic eruption signals originating anywhere on Earth. Detecting, quantifying, and cataloging the global occurrence of explosive volcanism helps toward several goals in Earth sciences and has direct applications in volcanic hazard mitigation. We combine infrasound signal association across multiple stations with source location using a brute-force, grid-search, cross-bearings approach. The algorithm corrects for a background prior rate of coherent unwanted infrasound signals (clutter) in a global grid, without needing to screen array processing detection lists from individual stations prior to association. We develop the algorithm using case studies of explosive eruptions: 2008 Kasatochi, Alaska; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kurile Islands; and 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. We apply the method to global IMS infrasound data from 2005-2010 to construct a preliminary acoustic catalog that emphasizes sustained explosive volcanic activity (long-duration signals or sequences of impulsive transients lasting hours to days). This work represents a step toward the goal of integrating IMS infrasound data products into global volcanic eruption early warning and notification systems. Additionally, a better understanding of volcanic signal detection and location with the IMS helps improve operational event detection, discrimination, and association capabilities.

Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

2013-06-01

The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R. I.

2009-12-01

Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant

Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2016-01-01

Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...... of time, economical risks are implicitly addressed by balancing short-term and long-term objectives throughout the reservoir life. Open-loop simulations of a two-phase synthetic reservoir demonstrate that TE methods may significantly improve short-term risk measures such as expected return, standard...

Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

Papale, Paolo

2018-05-01

Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

A geologic and anthropogenic journey from the Precambrian to the new energy economy through the San Juan volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Yager, Douglas B.; Burchell,; Johnson, Raymond H.

2010-01-01

The San Juan volcanic field comprises 25,000 km2 of intermediate composition mid-Tertiary volcanic rocks and dacitic to rhyolitic calderas including the San Juan–Uncompahgre and La Garita caldera-forming super-volcanoes. The region is famous for the geological, ecological, hydrological, archeological, and climatological diversity. These characteristics supported ancestral Puebloan populations. The area is also important for its mineral wealth that once fueled local economic vitality. Today, mitigating and/or investigating the impacts of mining and establishing the region as a climate base station are the focuses of ongoing research. Studies include advanced water treatment, the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of propylitic bedrock for use in mine-lands cleanup, and the use of soil amendments including biochar from beetle-kill pines. Biochar aids soil productivity and revegetation by incorporation into soils to improve moisture retention, reduce erosion, and support the natural terrestrial carbon sequestration (NTS) potential of volcanic soils to help offset atmospheric CO2 emissions. This field trip will examine the volcano-tectonic and cultural history of the San Juan volcanic field as well as its geologic structures, economic mineral deposits and impacts, recent mitigation measures, and associated climate research. Field trip stops will include a visit to (1) the Summitville Superfund site to explore quartz alunite-Au mineralization, and associated alteration and new water-quality mitigation strategies; (2) the historic Creede epithermal-polymetallic–vein district with remarkably preserved resurgent calderas, keystone-graben, and moat sediments; (3) the historic mining town of Silverton located in the nested San Juan–Silverton caldera complex that exhibits base-metal Au-Ag mineralization; and (4) the site of ANC and NTS studies. En route back to Denver, we will traverse Grand Mesa, a high NTS area with Neogene basalt-derived soils and will enjoy a soak

Does exposure to lahars risk affect people's risk-preferences and other attitudes? Field data from incentivized experiments and surveys in Arequipa - Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Heitz, C.; Bchir, M. A.; Willinger, M.

2012-04-01

Many individuals are exposed to risks which are either difficult to insure or hard to mitigate, such as tsunamis, floods, volcanic eruption,... Little is known about how exposure to such risks shapes individuals' risk-preferences. Are they more (less) risk-averse than people who are unexposed to such hazard risk? We provide empirical evidence about this question for the case of individuals exposed to lahars risk. Lahars are sediments laden flows from volcanic origin. We compare the risk-attitude of people exposed - versus non-exposed ones - to lahars risk. The originality of our approach is that we combine standard survey data to behavioural data collected by means of incentivized experiments. We collected data in various locations of the city of Arequipa (Peru), a densely populated area down the volcano El Misti. Participants in our experiment were identified as (non-)exposed to lahars risk based on risk zoning. Our survey questionnaire allows us to compare assessed exposure and the perceived exposure. We elicit risk-preference, time-preference, and trusting behaviour (a measure of social capital) for each respondent in addition to standard survey data. Our field experiment involved a total of 209 respondents from exposed and non-exposed areas. While respondents endow legitimacy in risk reduction (more than 74%) to a national authority (Defensa Civil) in charge of the management of risk in the city, more than 64% of them consider that they are not sufficiently informed about the behaviours to adopt in case of a disaster. Respondents are therefore poorly motivated to adopt initiatives of self-protection (23%) and express instead high expectations with respect to authorities' actions for decreasing their vulnerability (73%). The experimental data show that participants who live in exposed areas are not significantly more risk-averse than those living in non-exposed ones. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in time-preference between exposed and non

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Wei [Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Tian, Fuqiang [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Yang, Kun [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Sothea, Khem [Mekong Institute of Cambodia, Phnom Penh Cambodia

2017-10-25

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

[Socio-psychological and ecological aspects within the system of nuclear radiation risk mitigation].

Science.gov (United States)

Davydov, B I; Ushakov, I B; Zuev, V G

2004-01-01

The authors bring into light several aspects of nuclear radiation risks, i.e. physical safety of nuclear technologies and ecology, place of operator within the nuclear radiation safety system (proficiency, protective culture, safety guides) and consider approaches to the human factor quantification within the system of mitigation of risks from nuclear technologies, and IAEA recommendations on probable risk estimation. Future investigations should be aimed at extension of the radiation sensitivity threshold, personnel selection as by psychological so genetic testing for immunity to ionizing radiation, development of pharmachemical and physical protectors and methods of enhancing nonspecific resistance to extreme, including radiation, environments, and building of radiation event simulators for training.

Patient-stated preferences regarding volume-related risk mitigation strategies for hemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Flythe, Jennifer E; Mangione, Thomas W; Brunelli, Steven M; Curhan, Gary C

2014-08-07

Larger weight gain and higher ultrafiltration rates have been associated with poorer outcomes among patients on dialysis. Dietary restrictions reduce fluid-related risk; however, adherence is challenging. Alternative fluid mitigation strategies include treatment time extension, more frequent dialysis, adjunct peritoneal dialysis, and wearable ultrafiltration devices. No data regarding patient preferences for fluid management exist. A survey was designed, tested, and administered to assess patient-stated preferences regarding fluid mitigation. A written survey concerning fluid-related symptoms, patient and treatment characteristics, and fluid management preferences was developed. The cross-sectional survey was completed by 600 patients on hemodialysis at 18 geographically diverse ambulatory facilities. Comparisons of patient willingness to engage in volume mitigation strategies across fluid symptom burden, dietary restriction experience, and patient characteristics were performed. Final analyses included 588 surveys. Overall, if allowed to liberalize fluid intake, 44.6% of patients were willing to extend treatment time by 15 minutes. Willingness to extend treatment time was incrementally less for longer treatment extensions; 12.2% of patients were willing to add a fourth weekly treatment session, and 13.5% of patients were willing to participate in nocturnal dialysis three nights per week. Patients more bothered by their fluid restrictions (versus less bothered) were more willing to engage in fluid mitigation strategies. Demographic characteristics and symptoms, such as cramping and dyspnea, were not consistently associated with willingness to engage in the proposed strategies. More than 25% of patients were unsure of their dry weights and typical interdialytic weight gains. Patients were generally averse to treatment time extension>15 minutes. Patients more bothered (versus less bothered) by their prescribed fluid restrictions were more willing to engage in volume

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

2012-02-01

The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

Volcanism on Io

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ashley Gerard

2014-03-01

Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

Trace Element Geochemistry of Basaltic Tephra in Maar Cores; Implications for Centre Correlation, Field Evolution, and Mantle Source Characteristics of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, J. L.; Leonard, G.; Timm, C.; Wilson, C. J. N.; Neil, H.; Millet, M. A.

2014-12-01

Establishing volcanic hazard and risk management strategies hinges on a detailed understanding of the type, timing and tephra dispersal of past eruptions. In order to unravel the pyroclastic eruption history of a volcanic field, genetic links between the deposits and eruption source centre need to be established. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; New Zealand) has been active for ca. 200 kyr and comprises ca. 53 individual centres covering an area of ca. 360km2. These centres show a range of sizes and eruptive styles from maar craters and tuff rings, to scoria cones and lava flows consistent with both phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions. Superimposition of the metropolitan area of Auckland (ca. 1.4 million inhabitants) on the volcanic field makes it critically important to assess the characteristics of the volcanic activity, on which to base assessment and management of the consequent hazards. Here we present a geochemical approach for correlating tephra deposits to their source centres. To acquire the most complete stratigraphic record of pyroclastic events, maar crater cores from different locations, covering various depths and thus ages across the field were selected. Magnetic susceptibility and x-ray density scanning of the cores was used to identify the basaltic tephra horizons, which were sampled and in-situ analysis of individual shards undertaken for major and trace elements using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS techniques, respectively. Our results show that tephra shard trace element ratios are comparable and complementary to the AVF whole rock database. The use of specific trace element ratios (e.g. Gd/Yb vs. Zr/Yb) allows us to fingerprint and cross correlate tephra horizons between cores and, when coupled with newly acquired 40Ar-39Ar age dating and eruption size estimates, correlate horizons to their source centres. This integrated style of study can provide valuable information to help volcanic hazard management and forecasting, and mitigation of related risks.

Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

2018-02-01

Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Major-element geochemistry of the Silent Canyon--Black Mountain peralkaline volcanic centers, northwestern Nevada Test Site: applications to an assessment of renewed volcanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Sargent, K.A.

1979-01-01

The Silent Canyon and Black Mountain volcanic centers are located in the northern part of the Nevada Test Site. The Silent Canyon volcanic center is a buried cauldron complex of Miocene age (13 to 15 m.y.). Black Mountain volcanic center is an elliptical-shaped cauldron complex of late Miocene age. The lavas and tuffs of the two centers comprise a subalkaline-peralkaline association. Rock types range from quartz normative subalkaline trachyte and rhyolite to peralkaline commendite. The Gold Flat Member of the Thirsty Canyon Tuff (Black Mountain) is a pantellerite. The major-element geochemistry of the Black Mountain--Silent Canyon volcanic centers differ in the total range and distribution of SiO 2 , contents, the degree of peralkalinity (molecular Na 2 O + K 2 O > Al 2 O 3 ) and in the values of total iron and alumina through the range of rock types. These differences indicate that the suites were unrelated and evolved from differing magma bodies. The Black Mountain volcanic cycle represents a renewed phase of volcanism following cessation of the Timber Mountain--Silent Canyon volcanic cycles. Consequently, there is a small but numerically incalculable probability of recurrence of Black Mountain-type volcanism within the Nevada Test Site region. This represents a potential risk with respect to deep geologic storage of high-level radioactive waste at the Nevada Test Site

HOW MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS USE LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta Iftinchi

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In their international activities multinational corporations (MNCs face various risks. Political risk is one of them. Expropriations, transfer and convertibility restrictions, breach of contracts, acts of terrorism, domestic political violence or other adverse regulatory changes and/or negative government action represent forms of political risks. Incorporating political risk in their risk management strategies becomes a necessity for MNCs in their search for profits and new markets. This article presents how MNCs use lobbying and advocacy as means to engage with governments and politicians in the country of origin (home country, in the country where a MNC has operations (host country or at international level (by creating ties with international organisations in order to mitigate political risks. The case of Repsol and its investment in Argentina is used to demonstrate the application of such tools. The article presents two limitations that might determine the success or failure of MNCs’ lobbying and advocacy activities: governments' unpredictable views towards MNCs and reputational risks. The article has also identified a main difficulty in identifying and examining MNCs way of using lobbying and advocacy to engage with government officials and politicians. This difficulty comes from the informal character of such contacts which makes lobbying and advocacy almost impossible to identify.

Mitigating flood exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

2015-04-01

Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

Assessing individual and organizational response to volcanic crisis and unrest at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Reeves, Ashleigh; Gregg, Chris; Lindell, Michael; Prater, Carla; Joyner, Timothy; Eggert, Sarah

2017-04-01

both written messages and graphic illustrations, placed pressure on HVO to provide information at a faster rate than in previous eruptions. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty about volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate protective action recommendations. A series of interviews and mental model exercises were conducted with local, state, and federal stakeholders to understand their needs in volcano crises. Current knowledge of local risk communication and mitigation efforts as well as stakeholders' experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis were identified. Stakeholders included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis— traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers and firefighters. We are also assessing factors that influence household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations, such as evacuation, and their attitudes toward hazard mitigation efforts, such as lava diversion strategies. Collectively, these studies will provide a detailed evaluation of important risk communication and risk management issues at both household and organizational levels and insight about uncertainties that influence the outcome of volcanic crises.

Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

Science.gov (United States)

van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

2016-04-01

Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

Lidar detection of carbon dioxide in volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Santoro, Simone; Parracino, Stefano; Maio, Giovanni; Del Franco, Mario; Aiuppa, Alessandro

2015-06-01

Volcanic gases give information on magmatic processes. In particular, anomalous releases of carbon dioxide precede volcanic eruptions. Up to now, this gas has been measured in volcanic plumes with conventional measurements that imply the severe risks of local sampling and can last many hours. For these reasons and for the great advantages of laser sensing, the thorough development of volcanic lidar has been undertaken at the Diagnostics and Metrology Laboratory (UTAPRAD-DIM) of the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA). In fact, lidar profiling allows one to scan remotely volcanic plumes in a fast and continuous way, and with high spatial and temporal resolution. Two differential absorption lidar instruments will be presented in this paper: BILLI (BrIdge voLcanic LIdar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser, double grating dye laser, difference frequency mixing (DFM) and optical parametric amplifier (OPA), and VULLI (VULcamed Lidar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser and optical parametric oscillator (OPO). The first one is funded by the ERC (European Research Council) project BRIDGE and the second one by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) project VULCAMED. While VULLI has not yet been tested in a volcanic site, BILLI scanned the gas emitted by Pozzuoli Solfatara (Campi Flegrei volcanic area, Naples, Italy) during a field campaign carried out from 13 to 17 October 2014. Carbon dioxide concentration maps were retrieved remotely in few minutes in the crater area. Lidar measurements were in good agreement with well-established techniques, based on different operating principles. To our knowledge, it is the first time that carbon dioxide in a volcanic plume is retrieved by lidar, representing the first direct measurement of this kind ever performed on an active volcano and showing the high potential of laser remote sensing in geophysical research.

A Combined Methodology for Landslide Risk Mitigation in Basilicata Region by Using LIDAR Technique and Rockfall Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Colangelo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Rockfalls represent a significant geohazards along the SS18 road of Basilicata Region, Italy. The management of these rockfall hazards and the mitigation of the risk require innovative approaches and technologies. This paper discusses a hazard assessment strategy and risk mitigation for rockfalls in a section of SS118, along the coast of Maratea, using LIDAR technique and spatial modelling. Historical rockfall records were used to calibrate the physical characteristics of the rockfall processes. The results of the simulations were used to define the intervention actions and engineering strategy for the mitigation of the phenomena. Within two months, 260 linear meters of high-energy rockfall barriers for impact energies up to 3000 kJ were installed. After that, according to road authority, the SS18 road was opened in a safe condition. The results represent a valid cognitive support to choose the most appropriate technical solution for topography strengthening and an example of good practice for the cooperation between innovative technologies and field emergency management.

Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2013-10-01

Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy M. Larson

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

2010-09-01

The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ► Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ► Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ► Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from this new operating environment.

International study of risk-mitigating factors and in-flight allergic reactions to peanut and tree nut.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenhawt, Matthew; MacGillivray, Fiona; Batty, Geraldine; Said, Maria; Weiss, Christopher

2013-03-01

Three studies have analyzed in-flight peanut/tree nut reactions, although the studies were conducted exclusively among Americans. We studied the international in-flight experience and determined the efficacy of certain risk-mitigation strategies. A 47-question on-line survey was distributed through the websites and social media outlets of the member organizations of the Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Alliance. Both persons reporting an in-flight reaction and nonreactors were surveyed to assess details of air travel preparation and any reported reaction. Data were analyzed to determine the association among flying behaviors, reported reactions, and nationality. We found that 349 reactions were reported among 3273 respondents from 11 countries; 13.3% received epinephrine as treatment. Flight crews were notified about 50.1% of reactions. Sixty-nine percent of all respondents reported making a preflight accommodation request, although just 55% of reactors did so compared with 71.6% of nonreactors (P airline pillows or blankets, requested a buffer zone, requested other passengers not consume peanut/tree nut-containing products, or reported not consuming airline-provided food had significantly lower adjusted odds of reporting a reaction. In-flight peanut and tree nut reactions occur internationally. Epinephrine was sparsely used to treat reactions. We identified 8 risk-mitigating behaviors associated with lower odds of a reported reaction. Future study is necessary to further validate the effectiveness of these passenger-initiated risk-mitigating behaviors. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven

2013-03-01

To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the

A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

2017-12-01

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Landeg, O.

Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Volcanic stratigraphy: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Martí, Joan; Groppelli, Gianluca; Brum da Silveira, Antonio

2018-05-01

Volcanic stratigraphy is a fundamental component of geological mapping in volcanic areas as it yields the basic criteria and essential data for identifying the spatial and temporal relationships between volcanic products and intra/inter-eruptive processes (earth-surface, tectonic and climatic), which in turn provides greater understanding of the geological evolution of a region. Establishing precise stratigraphic relationships in volcanic successions is not only essential for understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes and for predicting how they might behave in the future, but is also critical for establishing guidelines for exploring economic and energy resources associated with volcanic systems or for reconstructing the evolution of sedimentary basins in which volcanism has played a significant role. Like classical stratigraphy, volcanic stratigraphy should also be defined using a systematic methodology that can provide an organised and comprehensive description of the temporal and spatial evolution of volcanic terrain. This review explores different methods employed in studies of volcanic stratigraphy, examines four case studies that use differing stratigraphic approaches, and recommends methods for using systematic volcanic stratigraphy based on the application of the concepts of traditional stratigraphy but adapted to the needs of volcanological environment.

The Origin of Widespread Long-lived Volcanism Across the Galapagos Volcanic Province

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, J. M.; Stoffers, P.; Wijbrans, J. R.; Worthington, T. J.

2005-12-01

40Ar/39Ar ages for rocks dredged (SO144 PAGANINI expedition) and drilled (DSDP) from the Galapagos Volcanic Province (Cocos, Carnegie, Coiba and Malpelo aseismic ridges and associated seamounts) show evidence of 1) increasing age with distance from the Galapagos Archipelago, 2) long-lived episodic volcanism at many locations, and 3) broad overlapping regions of coeval volcanism. The widespread nature of synchronous volcanism across the Galapagos Volcanic Province (GVP) suggests a correspondingly large Galapagos hotspot melting anomaly (O'Connor et al., 2004). Development of the GVP via Cocos and Nazca plate migration and divergence over this broad melting anomaly would explain continued multiple phases of volcanism over millions of years following the initial onset of hotspot volcanism. The question arising from these observations is whether long-lived GVP episodic volcanism is equivalent to `rejuvenescent' or a `post-erosional' phase of volcanism that occurs hundreds of thousands or million years after the main shield-building phase documented on many mid-plate seamount chains, most notably along the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain? Thus, investigating the process responsible for long-lived episodic GVP volcanism provides the opportunity to evaluate this little understood process of rejuvenation in a physical setting very different to the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain (i.e. on/near spreading axis versus mid-plate). We consider here timing and geochemical information to test the various geodynamic models proposed to explain the origin of GVP hotspot volcanism, especially the possibility of rejuvenated phases that erupt long after initial shield-building.

Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trowsdale, R.

2006-01-01

This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

OpenAIRE

Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

2012-01-01

The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Marrero

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

2016-04-01

"Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Violeta Iftinchi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

2013-03-01

To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

McKinley, David

2008-01-01

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

Volcanic features of Io

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.

1979-01-01

The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

2013-04-01

In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

2014-12-01

For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

Health care workers and researchers traveling to developing-world clinical settings: disease transmission risk and mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Kortepeter, Mark G; Seaworth, Barbara J; Tasker, Sybil A; Burgess, Timothy H; Coldren, Rodney L; Aronson, Naomi E

2010-12-01

With the recent emphasis on funding and training opportunities for global health and humanitarian aid and the increased interest in the field, many health care workers and medical researchers are traveling from resource-replete to resource-limited settings. This type of travel brings unique disease risks not routinely considered for the business or vacationing traveler. This review provides practical advice for this special population of travelers, targeted to specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis), with suggestions for risk mitigation.

Volcanic risk metrics at Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand: some background to a probabilistic eruption forecasting scheme and a cost/benefit analysis at an open conduit volcano

Science.gov (United States)

Jolly, Gill; Sandri, Laura; Lindsay, Jan; Scott, Brad; Sherburn, Steve; Jolly, Art; Fournier, Nico; Keys, Harry; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

setting up BET_EF for Mt Ruapehu we are forced to define quantitatively what the background activity is. This will result in a quantitative evaluation of what changes in long time monitored parameters may influence the probability of future eruptions. The slopes of Mt Ruapehu host the largest ski area in North Island, New Zealand. Lahars have been generated as a result of several eruptions in the last 50 years, and some of these have reached the ski runs in a very short time frame (around 90 seconds from the beginning of the eruption). In the light of these potentially hazardous lahars, we use the output probabilities provided by BET_EF in a practical and rational decision scheme recently proposed by Marzocchi and Woo (2009) based on a cost/benefit analysis (CBA). In such scheme, a C/L ratio is computed, based on the costs (C) of practical mitigation actions to reduce risk (e.g., a public warning scheme and other means of raising awareness, and a call for a temporary and/or partial closure of the ski area) and on the potential loss (L) if no mitigation action is taken and an eruption occurs causing lahars down the ski fields. By comparing the probability of eruption-driven lahars and the C/L ratio, it is possible to define the most rational mitigation actions that can be taken to reduce the risk to skiers, snowboarders and staff on skifield. As BET_EF probability of eruption changes dynamically as updated monitoring data are received, the authorities can decide, at any specific point in time, what is the best action according to the current monitoring of the volcano. In this respect, CBA represents a bridge linking scientific output (probabilities) and Decision Makers (practical mitigation actions).

Surface temperature monitoring by integrating satellite data and ground thermal camera network on Solfatara Crater in Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Buongiorno, M. F.; Musacchio, M.; Silvestri, M.; Vilardo, G.; Sansivero, F.; caPUTO, T.; bellucci Sessa, E.; Pieri, D. C.

2017-12-01

Current satellite missions providing imagery in the TIR region at high spatial resolution offer the possibility to estimate the surface temperature in volcanic area contributing in understanding the ongoing phenomena to mitigate the volcanic risk when population are exposed. The Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Italy) is part of the Napolitan volcanic district and its monitored by INGV ground networks including thermal cameras. TIRS on LANDSAT and ASTER on NASA-TERRA provide thermal IR channels to monitor the evolution of the surface temperatures on Campi Flegrei area. The spatial resolution of the TIR data is 100 m for LANDSAT8 and 90 m for ASTER, temporal resolution is 16 days for both satellites. TIRNet network has been developed by INGV for long-term volcanic surveillance of the Flegrei Fields through the acquisition of thermal infrared images. The system is currently comprised of 5 permanent stations equipped with FLIR A645SC thermo cameras with a 640x480 resolution IR sensor. To improve the systematic use of satellite data in the monitor procedures of Volcanic Observatories a suitable integration and validation strategy is needed, also considering that current satellite missions do not provide TIR data with optimal characteristics to observe small thermal anomalies that may indicate changes in the volcanic activity. The presented procedure has been applied to the analysis of Solfatara Crater and is based on 2 different steps: 1) parallel processing chains to produce ground temperature data both from satellite and ground cameras; 2) data integration and comparison. The ground cameras images generally correspond to views of portion of the crater slopes characterized by significant thermal anomalies due to fumarole fields. In order to compare the satellite and ground cameras it has been necessary to take into account the observation geometries. All thermal images of the TIRNet have been georeferenced to the UTM WGS84 system, a regular grid of 30x30 meters has been

Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

2015-06-01

The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

2016-04-01

The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

1997-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

2003-05-01

Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

Science.gov (United States)

Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

2009-04-01

ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

Sandstone Relief Geohazards and their Mitigation: Rock Fall Risk Management in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vařilová, Zuzana; Zvelebil, J.

2005-01-01

Roč. 44, - (2005), s. 53-58 ISSN 1682-5519. [Sandstone Landscapes in Europe. Past, Present and Future. International Conference on Sandstone Landscapes /2./. Vianden, 25.05.2005-28.05.2005] Keywords : sandstones * rock-slope instability * rock fall * risk evalution and mitigation * monitoring net * remedial works Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation

VOLCANIC TSUNAMI GENERATING SOURCE MECHANISMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Pararas-Carayannis

2004-01-01

ée on Martinique, of Soufriere on St. Vincent and of the Kick’em Jenny underwater volcano near Grenada and provides an overall risk assessment of tsunami generation from volcanic sources in the Caribbean region.

Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

2009-12-01

study was completed to help improve volcanic ash detection, forecast models and warnings and to assist policy makers and the airlines to refine preparatory measures for the prevention of future volcanic ash encounters. It’s overarching objective is not only to reduce the potentially catastrophic loss of aircraft and human life posed by the volcanic ash hazard, but more often to mitigate the economic impact from flight delays and cancellations. In that vein, this project supports Sub Goal 3A of the NASA Strategic Plan, “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.”

The reordering urban community participation. A strategy for the prevention and mitigation of risk by geological phenomena: Case of implementation in Medellin, Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rendon R; Albeiro de J; Arcila G Alberto; Durango R, German

2007-01-01

In this article, it is showed the fulfilled methodology by the municipality of Medellin-Colombia and its results, at the Picacho sector, for the risk prevention and mitigation of rock fall It is formulated and developed a project for urban rearrangement, in which the community participation is the transverse component at the planning- management, risk prevention- mitigation, legalization of land's possession, housing improvement- relocation, and urban infrastructure. The most important results were a) the improvement of quality's life for residents, benefiting directly about 2,500 people and indirectly about 24,000, with one investment near 3.6 dollar millions; b) construction of social web and membership sense; c) better governance and better state-community relation; and d) risk reduction of rock fall As the main conclusion it is expounded that the community participation at all stages of the project and the concept that the risk is non resolved problem of the development are two determining elements so that urban rearrangement may be, in many cases, the better option for the risk prevention and mitigation of geological phenomena in urban areas of unmannerly development, rather than one massive relocation of the population

APhoRISM FP7 project: the Multi-platform volcanic Ash Cloud Estimation (MACE) infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Merucci, Luca; Corradini, Stefano; Bignami, Christian; Stramondo, Salvatore

2014-05-01

APHORISM is an FP7 project that aims to develop innovative products to support the management and mitigation of the volcanic and the seismic crisis. Satellite and ground measurements will be managed in a novel manner to provide new and improved products in terms of accuracy and quality of information. The Multi-platform volcanic Ash Cloud Estimation (MACE) infrastructure will exploit the complementarity between geostationary, and polar satellite sensors and ground measurements to improve the ash detection and retrieval and to fully characterize the volcanic ash clouds from source to the atmosphere. The basic idea behind the proposed method consists to manage in a novel manner, the volcanic ash retrievals at the space-time scale of typical geostationary observations using both the polar satellite estimations and in-situ measurements. The typical ash thermal infrared (TIR) retrieval will be integrated by using a wider spectral range from visible (VIS) to microwave (MW) and the ash detection will be extended also in case of cloudy atmosphere or steam plumes. All the MACE ash products will be tested on three recent eruptions representative of different eruption styles in different clear or cloudy atmospheric conditions: Eyjafjallajokull (Iceland) 2010, Grimsvotn (Iceland) 2011 and Etna (Italy) 2011-2012. The MACE infrastructure will be suitable to be implemented in the next generation of ESA Sentinels satellite missions.

Development of mobile sensor for volcanic observation "HOMURA": Test campaigns for a long-term operation

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, K.; Iwahori, K.; Ito, K.; Sagi, H.

2016-12-01

Unmanned robots are useful to observe volcanic phenomena near active volcanic vents, to learn symptoms and transitions of eruptions, and to mitigate volcanic disasters. We have been trying to develop a practical UGV robot for flexible observation of active volcanic vents. We named this system "Homura". In this presentation, we report results of test campaigns of Homura for observation in a volcanic field. We have developed a prototype of Homura, which is a small robot vehicle with six wheels (75 x 43 x 31 cm and a weight of about 12 kg). It is remotely controlled with mobile phone radio waves; it can move in volcanic fields and send real time data of sensors (camera and gas sensors) equipped in the vehicle to the base station. Homura has a small solar panel (4 W). Power consumption of Homura is about 4 W in operation of sensors and less than 0.1 W in idle state, so that Homura can work outdoors for a long time by intermittent operation.We carried out two test campaigns of Homura at Iwo-yama to examine if Homura can work for a few month in natural volcanic fields (however, it had no solar panel in these campaigns). Iwo-yama is one of craters in the Kirishima volcanic field, SW Japan; the area within 1 km from the crater was an off-limit area from Oct., 2014 to May, 2015 and from Feb. to Mar., 2016 because of strong volcanic seismicity. On Feb. 19th, 2015 and Mar. 7th, 2016, we carried and put Homura at the rim of the crater. Unfortunately, mobile phone connectivity was not entirely stable around Iwo-yama. Then, we did not move Homura and only obtain real time data of the sensors. In the two campaigns, we operated Homura at our office for a few hours every day for 49 and 37 days, respectively. Although the weather was often bad (rain, fog, or cold temperature) during the campaigns, Homura perfectly worked. The results of these campaigns indicate that Homura is useful as s simple monitoring station in volcanic fields where mobile phone connection is available.

Sources of Quaternary volcanism in the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, Madagascar

Science.gov (United States)

Rasoazanamparany, C.; Widom, E.; Kuentz, D. C.; Raharimahefa, T.; Rakotondrazafy, F. M. A.; Rakotondravelo, K. M.

2017-12-01

We present new major and trace element and Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope data for Quaternary basaltic lavas and tephra from the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, representing the most recent volcanism in Madagascar. Mafic magmas from Itasy and Ankaratra exhibit significant inter- and intra-volcanic field geochemical heterogeneity. The Itasy eruptive products range in composition from foidite to phonotephrite whereas Ankaratra lavas range from basanite to trachybasalts. Trace element signatures of samples from both volcanic fields are very similar to those of ocean island basalts (OIB), with significant enrichment in Nb and Ta, depletion in Rb, Cs, and K, and relatively high Nb/U and Ce/Pb. However, the Itasy volcanic rocks show enrichment relative to those of Ankaratra in most incompatible elements, indicative of a more enriched source and/or lower degrees of partial melting. Significant inter- and intra-volcanic field heterogeneity is also observed in Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope signatures. The Itasy volcanic rocks generally have less radiogenic Sr and Nd isotopic ratios but more radiogenic Pb isotopic signatures than the Ankaratra volcanic field. Together, the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic rocks form a well-defined negative correlation in Sr vs. Pb isotopes that could be attributed to lithospheric contamination or variable degrees of mixing between distinct mantle sources. However, the lack of correlation between isotopes and indices of crustal contamination (e.g. MgO and Nb/U) are inconsistent with shallow lithospheric contamination, and instead suggest mixing between compositionally distinct mantle sources. Furthermore, although Sr-Pb isotope systematics are apparently consistent with mixing between two different sources, distinct trends in Sr vs. Nd isotopes displayed by samples from Itasy and Ankaratra, respectively, argue for more complex source mixing involving three or more sources. The current data demonstrate that although the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a

A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang

1994-01-01

Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP)

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2013-01-01

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists

On the use of UAVs at active volcanoes: a case study from Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, M.; Chigna, G.; Wood, K.; Richardson, T.; Liu, E.; Schellenberg, B.; Thomas, H.; Naismith, A.

2017-12-01

Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala, is one of Central America's most active systems. More than one hundred thousand people live within ten kilometres of the summit, many of them in profound poverty. Both the summit region and the volcano's steep sided valleys present significant access challenges, mostly associated with unacceptably high risk. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer the opportunity to observe, map and quantify emissions of tephra, gas, lava and heat flux and, using structure from motion algorithms, model dynamic topography. During recent campaigns, the team have completed observations of changes in the summit morphology immediately prior a paroxysmal eruption, mapped the key drainage systems after the fifth of May 2017 eruption and sampled the plume for tephra and gases using a range of onboard instruments. I will present the group's findings within a broader context of hazard mitigation and physical volcanology, and discuss the future of UAVs in volcano monitoring and research.

Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

The Lanzarote Geodynamic Laboratory: new capabilities for monitoring of volcanic activity at Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Arnoso, J.; Vélez, E. J.; Soler, V.; Montesinos, F. G.; Benavent, M.

2012-04-01

manifestations at the surface level, and to compare geodynamic processes associated with an active area of the Earth's crust. In turn, the results obtained can provide new inputs for studying precursor of volcanic activity and also contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation. The LGL aims to be a permanent status of renewal, using new technologies for data recording and real time transmission, as well as for testing new sensors, scientific equipment and observational techniques related to monitoring and observation of volcanic activity. All these capabilities are necessary when high-resolution ground based observations must provide us the basis for studying the sources of volcanic deformation. The laboratory is thus open to support and to enhance the collaboration among scientists, as well as national and international institutions involved in research at active volcanic areas.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Gurung, S.

2017-12-01

Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river

A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

2013-12-01

Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Sathnur, Ashwini

2017-04-01

Validation of the Existing products of the Remote Sensing instruments Review Comment Number 1 Ground - based instruments and space - based instruments are available for remote sensing of the Volcanic eruptions. Review Comment Number 2 The sunlight spectrum appears over the volcanic geographic area. This sunlight is reflected with the image of the volcano geographic area, to the satellite. The satellite captures this emitted spectrum of the image and further calculates the occurrences of the volcanic eruption. Review Comment Number 3 This computation system derives the presence and detection of sulphur dioxide and Volcanic Ash in the emitted spectrum. The temperature of the volcanic region is also measured. If these inputs derive the possibility of occurrence of an eruption, then the data is manually captured by the system for further usage and hazard mitigation. Review Comment Number 4 The instrument is particularly important in capturing the volcanogenic signal. This capturing operation should be carried out during the appropriate time of the day. This is carried out ideally at the time of the day when the reflected image spectra is best available. Capturing the data is not advisable to be performed at the night time, as the sunlight spectra is at its minimum. This would lead to erroneous data interpretation, as there is no sunlight for reflection of the volcanic region. Thus leading to the least capture of the emitted light spectra. Review Comment Number 5 An ideal area coverage of the spectrometer is mandatory. This is basically for the purpose of capturing the right area of data, in order to precisely derive the occurrence of a volcanic eruption. The larger the spatial resolution, there would be a higher capture of the geographic region, and this would lead to a lesser precise data capture. This would lead to missing details in the data capture. Review Comment Number 6 Ideal qualities for the remote sensing instrument are mentioned below:- Minimum "false

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

2016-11-10

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

Bioavailability and cellular effects of metals on Lumbricus terrestris inhabiting volcanic soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amaral, Andre; Soto, Manu; Cunha, Regina; Marigomez, Ionan; Rodrigues, Armindo

2006-01-01

Whether the radial thickness (RT) of the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium of earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris) reflects the bioavailability of metals in soils was investigated in two areas, one with active volcanism (Furnas) and another with no volcanic activity since 3 million years ago (Santa Maria), in the Azores. Metal contents in soil samples and earthworms from the two areas were analyzed. Autometallography and measurements of the RT were performed in the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium. Earthworms from the active volcanic area demonstrated lower RT of chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium as well as higher levels of bioavailable metals, especially Zn and Cd. Comparison of bioavailable metal contents between both areas suggests a higher risk for uptake of potentially toxic metals in the active volcanic area than in the non-active volcanic area, which is reflected by the lower RT of the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium in the former. - In earthworms, differences in the chloragogenous tissue morphometry may be related to the bioavailability of metals in soils

A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

2015-04-01

Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

Science.gov (United States)

Bustamante, Michele L; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Alonso, Elisa

2018-01-02

Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).

Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Debapriya Mondal

2014-04-01

Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

2012-01-01

Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rougier, Jonathan; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Brown, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude-frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude-frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions' (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

2001-12-01

The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

OpenAIRE

A. Heidari

2009-01-01

Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possi...

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off

Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solidum, Dr. Renato U.

2009-01-01

The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabardi, Steven

2011-07-01

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Dichmann, Donald

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

Science.gov (United States)

Garner, Trenton W. J.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin L.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C.; Bosch, Jaime

2016-01-01

Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Gunkel

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO₂ occur, and an accumulation of CO₂ in the deep water body must be taken into account.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO₂ degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

2016-01-01

We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier.

MSBIS: A Multi-Step Biomedical Informatics Screening Approach for Identifying Medications that Mitigate the Risks of Metoclopramide-Induced Tardive Dyskinesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dong Xu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA placed a black box warning on metoclopramide (MCP due to the increased risks and prevalence of tardive dyskinesia (TD. In this study, we developed a multi-step biomedical informatics screening (MSBIS approach leveraging publicly available bioactivity and drug safety data to identify concomitant drugs that mitigate the risks of MCP-induced TD. MSBIS includes (1 TargetSearch (http://dxulab.org/software bioinformatics scoring for drug anticholinergic activity using CHEMBL bioactivity data; (2 unadjusted odds ratio (UOR scoring for indications of TD-mitigating effects using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS; (3 adjusted odds ratio (AOR re-scoring by removing the effect of cofounding factors (age, gender, reporting year; (4 logistic regression (LR coefficient scoring for confirming the best TD-mitigating drug candidates. Drugs with increasing TD protective potential and statistical significance were obtained at each screening step. Fentanyl is identified as the most promising drug against MCP-induced TD (coefficient: −2.68; p-value < 0.01. The discovery is supported by clinical reports that patients fully recovered from MCP-induced TD after fentanyl-induced general anesthesia. Loperamide is identified as a potent mitigating drug against a broader range of drug-induced movement disorders through pharmacokinetic modifications. Using drug-induced TD as an example, we demonstrated that MSBIS is an efficient in silico tool for unknown drug-drug interaction detection, drug repurposing, and combination therapy design.

MSBIS: A Multi-Step Biomedical Informatics Screening Approach for Identifying Medications that Mitigate the Risks of Metoclopramide-Induced Tardive Dyskinesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Dong; Ham, Alexandrea G; Tivis, Rickey D; Caylor, Matthew L; Tao, Aoxiang; Flynn, Steve T; Economen, Peter J; Dang, Hung K; Johnson, Royal W; Culbertson, Vaughn L

2017-12-01

In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placed a black box warning on metoclopramide (MCP) due to the increased risks and prevalence of tardive dyskinesia (TD). In this study, we developed a multi-step biomedical informatics screening (MSBIS) approach leveraging publicly available bioactivity and drug safety data to identify concomitant drugs that mitigate the risks of MCP-induced TD. MSBIS includes (1) TargetSearch (http://dxulab.org/software) bioinformatics scoring for drug anticholinergic activity using CHEMBL bioactivity data; (2) unadjusted odds ratio (UOR) scoring for indications of TD-mitigating effects using the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS); (3) adjusted odds ratio (AOR) re-scoring by removing the effect of cofounding factors (age, gender, reporting year); (4) logistic regression (LR) coefficient scoring for confirming the best TD-mitigating drug candidates. Drugs with increasing TD protective potential and statistical significance were obtained at each screening step. Fentanyl is identified as the most promising drug against MCP-induced TD (coefficient: -2.68; p-valueTD after fentanyl-induced general anesthesia. Loperamide is identified as a potent mitigating drug against a broader range of drug-induced movement disorders through pharmacokinetic modifications. Using drug-induced TD as an example, we demonstrated that MSBIS is an efficient in silico tool for unknown drug-drug interaction detection, drug repurposing, and combination therapy design. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

Science.gov (United States)

Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau

2018-03-01

Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated with the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on offline coupled modeling systems in which meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated with the offline modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the offline coupling strategy are compared against those from an online forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors due to the offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional offline forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios in which the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for real-time advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally

Risks associated with volcanic ash fallout from Mt.Etna with reference to industrial filtration systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Ancione, Giuseppa; Salzano, Ernesto; Maschio, Giuseppe

2013-01-01

The recent eruption of the Icelandic volcano has focused the worldwide attention on volcanic ash effects for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities. This paper aims to study of technological (industrial) accidental scenarios triggered by ash fallout and, more specifically, to define and quantify the potential damage on filtration systems. Malfunctions due to the filter clogging and service interruptions caused by the rupture of the filtering surface have been analysed in order to define the vulnerability of the equipment to such damages. Results are given in terms of threshold values of deposit on the filtering surface and exceedance probability curves of ash concentrations and the duration of the ash emission. This data can be easily implemented in the standard risk assessment with the aim to include the estimation of Natural-Technological (Na-Tech) hazards

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2009-08-22

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

Enhancing sediment flux control and natural hazard risk mitigation through a structured conceptual planning approach

Science.gov (United States)

Simoni, S.; Vignoli, G.; Mazzorana, B.

2017-08-01

Sediment fluxes from mountain rivers contribute to shape the geomorphologic features of lowland rivers and to establish the physical basis for an optimal set of ecosystem functions and related services to people. Through significant public funding, the hydro-morphological regimes of mountain rivers in the European Alps have been progressively altered over the last century, with the aim to provide a safe dwelling space, to boost transport, mobility and to support economic growth. We claim that the underlying planning weaknesses contribute to determine these inefficient resource allocations, since flood risk is still high and the ecosystem services are far from being optimal. Hence, with the overall aim to enhance sediment flux control and hazard risk mitigation in such heavily modified alpine streams, we propose a structured design workflow which guides the planner through system analysis and synthesis. As a first step the proposed workflow sets the relevant planning goals and assesses the protection structure functionality. Then a methodology is proposed to achieve the goals. This methodology consists in characterising the hydrologic basin of interest and the sediment availability and determining the sediment connectivity to channels. The focus is set on the detailed analysis of existing river cross sections where the sediment continuity is interrupted (e.g. slit and check dams). By retaining relevant sediment volumes these structures prevent the reactivation of hydro-morphological and associated ecological functionalities. Since their actual performance can be unsatisfying with respect to flood risk mitigation (e.g. mainly old structures), we introduce specific efficiency indicators as a support for the conceptual design stage to quantify effects related to sediment flux control and risk management. The proposed planning approach is then applied to the Gadria system (stream, slit dam, retention basin and culvert), located in South Tyrol, Italy. This case study

Workshop in adaptation and mitigation strategies - approaching global warming: A review of the adaptation and mitigation perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morrisette, P.M.

1992-01-01

The debate within the scientific, policy, and environmental communities on what, if anything, to do about global warming appears to be focused on whether to adapt to climate change in the future or to mitigate climate change in the present. As the issue has become increasingly politicized, the debate over these two approaches has become polarized. The two approaches, however, are not mutually exclusive; in fact, there is much common ground between them. But differences can be found in how proponents of each approach view the risks of global climate change and the values that underpin these perceptions of risk. In this paper, the author will briefly outline the progression of global warming from an obscure scientific concern into a leading international political issue. The author will also review some previous efforts by social scientists to assess attitudes and positions on global warming. He will then examine in detail the adaptation and mitigation perspectives and assess how they differ on the basis of different conceptions of uncertainty and risk, equity, and technology. Finally, he will examine the adaptation and mitigation approaches from the perspective of developing countries

Volcanic Ash and SO2 Monitoring Using Suomi NPP Direct Broadcast OMPS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Brentzel, K. W.; Habib, S.; Hassinen, S.; Heinrichs, T. A.; Schneider, D. J.

2014-12-01

NASA's Suomi NPP Ozone Science Team, in conjunction with Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Direct Readout Laboratory, developed the capability of processing, in real-time, direct readout (DR) data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) to perform SO2 and Aerosol Index (AI) retrievals. The ability to retrieve this information from real-time processing of DR data was originally developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura spacecraft and is used by Volcano Observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) charged with mapping ash clouds from volcanic eruptions and providing predictions/forecasts about where the ash will go. The resulting real-time SO2 and AI products help to mitigate the effects of eruptions such as the ones from Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland and Puyehue-Cordón Caulle in Chile, which cause massive disruptions to airline flight routes for weeks as airlines struggle to avoid ash clouds that could cause engine failure, deeply pitted windshields impossible to see through, and other catastrophic events. We will discuss the implementation of real-time processing of OMPS DR data by both the Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) and the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), which provide real-time coverage over some of the most congested airspace and over many of the most active volcanoes in the world, and show examples of OMPS DR processing results from recent volcanic eruptions.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash in vitro

Science.gov (United States)

Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Damby, David E.; Ayris, Paul M.; Barošová, Hana; Geers, Christoph; Petri-Fink, Alke; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Clift, Martin J. D.

2016-04-01

this effect is maintained for ash exposure concurrent with complete vehicle exhaust, containing both particulate and gaseous components, as well as with samples exposed to an experimentally-simulated volcanic plume environment. It is envisaged that the findings of this study will provide a better understanding of the potential risk posed by combined exposure to urban pollution and volcanic ash towards human health.

Geomorphological insights on human-volcano interactions and use of volcanic materials in pre-Hispanic cultures of Costa Rica through the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Paulo; Mana, Sara; Gutiérrez, Amalia; Alarcón, Gerardo; Garro, José; Soto, Gerardo J.

2018-02-01

Critical Zones in tropical environments, especially near active volcanoes, are rich in resources such as water, food and construction materials. In Central America, people have lived near volcanic centers for thousands of years and learned to take advantage of these resources. Understanding how pre-Hispanic societies lived in this type of Critical Zones and interacted with volcanoes, provides us with insights on how to reduce the negative impact derived from volcanic activity in modern cities. In this multidisciplinary approach we focus on two case studies in Costa Rica near Poás and Turrialba volcanoes, which are currently active, in order to obtain a comprehensive view of human-volcano interactions through time. We use a methodology based on historical accounts, geological and archaeological fieldwork, geomorphological characterization based on remote sensing techniques and past (pre-Hispanic), and present land use analysis. The northern Poás region represents a case of a poorly developed pre-Hispanic society, which subsisted mainly on hunting and gathering activities, had no permanent settlements and was probably affected by the activity of the Hule and Río Cuarto maars. In spite of their vulnerability and lack of infrastructure, they used geomorphology to their advantage, achieving natural protection. Conversely, the Guayabo National Monument near Turrialba Volcano represents a cultural peak in pre-Hispanic societies in Costa Rica. Archaeological remains and structures at this site indicate that this society had a good understanding of physical and geological processes and was therefore able to take advantage of natural resources for water and food supply, construction, and protection as well as hazard prevention and mitigation. The use of new technologies, some accessible and low-cost such as Google Earth and others with restricted access and higher costs such as LiDAR, allowed us to complete a rapid and efficient characterization of land use and

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

2014-05-01

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

The Volcanism Ontology (VO): a model of the volcanic system

Science.gov (United States)

Myer, J.; Babaie, H. A.

2017-12-01

We have modeled a part of the complex material and process entities and properties of the volcanic system in the Volcanism Ontology (VO) applying several top-level ontologies such as Basic Formal Ontology (BFO), SWEET, and Ontology of Physics for Biology (OPB) within a single framework. The continuant concepts in BFO describe features with instances that persist as wholes through time and have qualities (attributes) that may change (e.g., state, composition, and location). In VO, the continuants include lava, volcanic rock, and volcano. The occurrent concepts in BFO include processes, their temporal boundaries, and the spatio-temporal regions within which they occur. In VO, these include eruption (process), the onset of pyroclastic flow (temporal boundary), and the space and time span of the crystallization of lava in a lava tube (spatio-temporal region). These processes can be of physical (e.g., debris flow, crystallization, injection), atmospheric (e.g., vapor emission, ash particles blocking solar radiation), hydrological (e.g., diffusion of water vapor, hot spring), thermal (e.g., cooling of lava) and other types. The properties (predicates) relate continuants to other continuants, occurrents to continuants, and occurrents to occurrents. The ontology also models other concepts such as laboratory and field procedures by volcanologists, sampling by sensors, and the type of instruments applied in monitoring volcanic activity. When deployed on the web, VO will be used to explicitly and formally annotate data and information collected by volcanologists based on domain knowledge. This will enable the integration of global volcanic data and improve the interoperability of software that deal with such data.

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Sobradelo

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed.

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wittenberg, Andrew; Zeng, Fanrong

2009-01-01

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Brilly

2005-01-01

Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

Urban flood perceptions and mitigative behaviours: Peterborough, Edmonton, and Toronto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandink, D.

2009-01-01

This abstract presents research from two studies investigating urban flood perceptions and mitigative behaviours of private individuals in Canada. The first study, completed in July, 2006, investigated perceptions of overland flooding and sewer backup resulting from extreme rainfall events in Peterborough, Ontario. The second, completed in November, 2007, investigated sewer backup perceptions of homeowners in Edmonton, Alberta and Toronto, Ontario. The research studies sought to explore: Hazard and risk perceptions of individuals affected by overland flooding and sewer backup; Knowledge of mitigative options, and mitigative actions taken by individual residents to reduce the risk of basement flood damage; Attributions of responsibility for urban flood damages; Awareness of municipal actions designed to reduce urban flood risk; Satisfaction with the cost sharing tools of insurance and government relief.

Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2013-01-01

Insights into flood mitigation behaviour are important because of the ongoing shift to risk-based flood management approaches in Europe and worldwide, which envisage a contribution from flood-prone households to risk reduction. The recent literature on factors that influence flood mitigation

Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Durrheim, RJ

2010-10-01

Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation.... 3. To upgrade the South African national seismic network. The project is carried out under the auspices of the SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) program "Countermeasures towards Global Issues through...

Risk evaluation of the alternate-3A modification to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR-4, MARK-II power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papazoglou, I.A.; Bari, R.A.; Karol, R.; Shiu, K.

1983-01-01

The authors present a risk evaluation of the ATWS Alternate 3A modification proposed by NRC staff in NUREG-0460 to the ATWS prevention/mitigation system in a BWR nuclear power plant. The evaluation is done relative to three risk indices: the frequency of core damage, the expected early fatalities, and the expected latent fatalities. The ATWS prevention tree includes: the mechanical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the electrical subsystem of the reactor protection system, the recirculation pump trip and the Alternate Rod Insertion System. The mitigation tree includes: standby liquid control system, opening of the relief valves, reclosing the relief valves, failure of coolant injection, inadvertent actuation of the automatic depressurization system, inadvertent operation of high-pressure injection system and containment heat removal

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

In-flight dynamics of volcanic ballistic projectiles

Science.gov (United States)

Taddeucci, J.; Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, M. A.; Cruz-Vázquez, O.; Del Bello, E.; Scarlato, P.; Ricci, T.

2017-09-01

Centimeter to meter-sized volcanic ballistic projectiles from explosive eruptions jeopardize people and properties kilometers from the volcano, but they also provide information about the past eruptions. Traditionally, projectile trajectory is modeled using simplified ballistic theory, accounting for gravity and drag forces only and assuming simply shaped projectiles free moving through air. Recently, collisions between projectiles and interactions with plumes are starting to be considered. Besides theory, experimental studies and field mapping have so far dominated volcanic projectile research, with only limited observations. High-speed, high-definition imaging now offers a new spatial and temporal scale of observation that we use to illuminate projectile dynamics. In-flight collisions commonly affect the size, shape, trajectory, and rotation of projectiles according to both projectile nature (ductile bomb versus brittle block) and the location and timing of collisions. These, in turn, are controlled by ejection pulses occurring at the vent. In-flight tearing and fragmentation characterize large bombs, which often break on landing, both factors concurring to decrease the average grain size of the resulting deposits. Complex rotation and spinning are ubiquitous features of projectiles, and the related Magnus effect may deviate projectile trajectory by tens of degrees. A new relationship is derived, linking projectile velocity and size with the size of the resulting impact crater. Finally, apparent drag coefficient values, obtained for selected projectiles, mostly range from 1 to 7, higher than expected, reflecting complex projectile dynamics. These new perspectives will impact projectile hazard mitigation and the interpretation of projectile deposits from past eruptions, both on Earth and on other planets.

Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

2015-04-01

Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

Candidate constructional volcanic edifices on Mercury

OpenAIRE

Wright, J.; Rothery, D. A.; Balme, M. R.; Conway, S. J.

2018-01-01

[Introduction] Studies using MESSENGER data suggest that Mercury’s crust is predominantly a product of effusive volcanism that occurred in the first billion years following the planet’s formation. Despite this planet-wide effusive volcanism, no constructional volcanic edifices, characterized by a topographic rise, have hitherto been robustly identified on Mercury, whereas constructional volcanoes are common on other planetary bodies in the solar system with volcanic histories. Here, we descri...

Preventable and mitigable adverse events in cancer care: Measuring risk and harm across the continuum.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipitz-Snyderman, Allison; Pfister, David; Classen, David; Atoria, Coral L; Killen, Aileen; Epstein, Andrew S; Anderson, Christopher; Fortier, Elizabeth; Weingart, Saul N

2017-12-01

Patient safety is a critical concern in clinical oncology, but the ability to measure adverse events (AEs) across cancer care is limited by a narrow focus on treatment-related toxicities. The objective of this study was to assess the nature and extent of AEs among cancer patients across inpatient and outpatient settings. This was a retrospective cohort study of 400 adult patients selected by stratified random sampling who had breast (n = 128), colorectal (n = 136), or lung cancer (n = 136) treated at a comprehensive cancer center in 2012. Candidate AEs, or injuries due to medical care, were identified by trained nurse reviewers over the course of 1 year from medical records and safety-reporting databases. Physicians determined the AE harm severity and the likelihood of preventability and harm mitigation. The 400-patient sample represented 133,358 days of follow-up. Three hundred four AEs were identified for an overall rate of 2.3 events per 1000 patient days (91.2 per 1000 inpatient days and 0.9 per 1000 outpatient days). Thirty-four percent of the patients had 1 or more AEs (95% confidence interval, 29%-39%), and 16% of the patients had 1 or more preventable or mitigable AEs (95% confidence interval, 13%-20%). The AE rate for patients with breast cancer was lower than the rate for patients with colorectal or lung cancer (P ≤ .001). The preventable or mitigable AE rate was 0.9 per 1000 patient days. Six percent of AEs and 4% of preventable AEs resulted in serious harm. Examples included lymphedema, abscess, and renal failure. A heavy burden of AEs, including preventable or mitigable events, has been identified. Future research should examine risk factors and improvement strategies for reducing their burden. Cancer 2017;123:4728-4736. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Territorial prevention of natural disasters. Campania Region: a high risk territory. Studies by PLINIVS Centre and open issues

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Zuccaro

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The safety of the territory and the environment is a theme much discussed, but often not in organic and competent way. PLINIVS study centre has been studying for several years the impact of potentially disastrous events on the territory and has produced analysis models and scenery simulation of main natural risks regarding Campania territory (seismic, hydrogeological, volcanic, meteo-marine risks, etc.. Knowing the risk, and quantifying it, is important in order to single out critical aspects of the territory (threats and to intervene through mitigation measures and eventually a modern Plan of Civil Protection. Therefore the plan becomes a dynamic process able to control rhythmically the state of the risk and the safety level of the territory, and spatial planning should avail itself of the fundamental contribution of knowledge offered by these tools.

Experimental constraints on forecasting the location of volcanic eruptions from pre-eruptive surface deformation

Science.gov (United States)

Guldstrand, Frank; Galland, Olivier; Hallot, Erwan; Burchardt, Steffi

2018-02-01

Volcanic eruptions pose a threat to lives and property when volcano flanks and surroundings are densely populated. The local impact of an eruption depends firstly on its location, whether it occurs near a volcano summit, or down on the flanks. Then forecasting, with a defined accuracy, the location of a potential, imminent eruption would significantly improve the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Currently, the conventional volcano monitoring methods based on the analysis of surface deformation assesses whether a volcano may erupt but are not implemented to locate imminent eruptions in real time. Here we show how surface deformation induced by ascending eruptive feeders can be used to forecast the eruption location through a simple geometrical analysis. Our analysis builds on the results of 33 scaled laboratory experiments simulating magma intrusions in a brittle crust, during which the intrusion-induced surface deformation was systematically monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. In all the experiments, surface deformation preceding the eruptions resulted in systematic uplift, regardless of the intrusion shape. The analysis of the surface deformation patterns leads to the definition of a vector between the centre of the uplifted zone and the point of maximum uplift, which systematically acted as a precursor to the eruption’s location. The temporal evolution of this vector indicated the direction in which the subsequent eruption would occur and ultimately the location itself, irrespective of the feeder shapes. Our findings represent a new approach on how surface deformation on active volcanoes could be analysed and used prior to an eruption with a real potential to improve hazard mitigation.

A New Breed of Database System: Volcano Global Risk Identification and Analysis Project (VOGRIPA)

Science.gov (United States)

Crosweller, H. S.; Sparks, R. S.; Siebert, L.

2009-12-01

VOGRIPA originated as part of the Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) that is being co-ordinated from the Earth Institute of Columbia University under the auspices of the United Nations and World Bank. GRIP is a five-year programme aiming at improving global knowledge about risk from natural hazards and is part of the international response to the catastrophic 2004 Asian tsunami. VOGRIPA is also a formal IAVCEI project. The objectives of VOGRIPA are to create a global database of volcanic activity, hazards and vulnerability information that can be analysed to identify locations at high risk from volcanism, gaps in knowledge about hazards and risk, and will allow scientists and disaster managers at specific locations to analyse risk within a global context of systematic information. It is this added scope of risk and vulnerability as well as hazard which sets VOGRIPA apart from most previous databases. The University of Bristol is the central coordinating centre for the project, which is an international partnership including the Smithsonian Institution, the Geological Survey of Japan, the Earth Observatory of Singapore (Chris Newhall), the British Geological Survey, the University of Buffalo (SUNY) and Munich Re. The partnership is intended to grow and any individuals or institutions who are able to contribute resources to VOGRIPA objectives are welcome to participate. Work has already begun (funded principally by Munich Re) on populating a database of large magnitude explosive eruptions reaching back to the Quaternary, with extreme-value statistics being used to evaluate the magnitude-frequency relationship of such events, and also an assessment of how the quality of records affect the results. The following 4 years of funding from the European Research Council for VOGRIPA will be used to establish further international collaborations in order to develop different aspects of the database, with the data being accessible online once it is sufficiently

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

1983-03-01

Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

Social impact mitigation and nuclear waste repository siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peelle, E.

1980-01-01

Some aspects of the socioeconomic impacts of siting, constructing, and operating radioactive waste repositories in rural areas are discussed. These include public perceptions of high risk and uncertainty; limited benefits and no incentives; dissociations of costs and benefits; remoteness and inaccessibility of the decision making process for large energy facilities; no institutions to provide protection and accountability for those who may be affected by the siting; the fact that not all risks or impacts are fully mitigable; and constraints on DOE's present ability or authority to mitigate impacts

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Value/impact analysis for evaluating alternative mitigation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Catton, I.; Castle, J.N.; Dooley, J.L.; Hammond, R.P.

1988-01-01

Methods are developed for assessing the cost effectiveness of proposed systems and strategies for mitigating the consequences of severe nuclear accidents. Such mitigation systems consist mostly of devices for improving the ability of a reactor containment to survive such an accident and retain all radioactive materials. Value/impact analysis is applied to the system with and without mitigation, using the population dose averted by mitigation as the value of benefit, and the dollar cost of the containment improvements as the impact. Other considerations affecting such analyses include ways of monetizing public health risk, economic discounting, and the effect of interdiction policy and other post-accident recovery costs

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

Science.gov (United States)

Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES Farmers' Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Dover, Sally E; Buys, David R; Allocca, Sally; Locher, Julie L

2013-01-01

Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population.

Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank eSterck

2016-05-01

Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

2016-01-01

There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

Using Volcanic Lightning Measurements to Discern Variations in Explosive Volcanic Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Behnke, S. A.; Thomas, R. J.; McNutt, S. R.; Edens, H. E.; Krehbiel, P. R.; Rison, W.

2013-12-01

VHF observations of volcanic lightning have been made during the recent eruptions of Augustine Volcano (2006, Alaska, USA), Redoubt Volcano (2009, Alaska, USA), and Eyjafjallajökull (2010, Iceland). These show that electrical activity occurs both on small scales at the vent of the volcano, concurrent with an eruptive event and on large scales throughout the eruption column during and subsequent to an eruptive event. The small-scale discharges at the vent of the volcano are often referred to as 'vent discharges' and are on the order of 10-100 meters in length and occur at rates on the order of 1000 per second. The high rate of vent discharges produces a distinct VHF signature that is sometimes referred to as 'continuous RF' radiation. VHF radiation from vent discharges has been observed at sensors placed as far as 100 km from the volcano. VHF and infrasound measurements have shown that vent discharges occur simultaneously with the onset of eruption, making their detection an unambiguous indicator of explosive volcanic activity. The fact that vent discharges are observed concurrent with explosive volcanic activity indicates that volcanic ejecta are charged upon eruption. VHF observations have shown that the intensity of vent discharges varies between eruptive events, suggesting that fluctuations in eruptive processes affect the electrification processes giving rise to vent discharges. These fluctuations may be variations in eruptive vigor or variations in the type of eruption; however, the data obtained so far do not show a clear relationship between eruption parameters and the intensity or occurrence of vent discharges. Further study is needed to clarify the link between vent discharges and eruptive behavior, such as more detailed lightning observations concurrent with tephra measurements and other measures of eruptive strength. Observations of vent discharges, and volcanic lightning observations in general, are a valuable tool for volcano monitoring, providing a

Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment

Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

Science.gov (United States)

Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

2009-09-01

The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

Managing the effects of accelerated glacial melting on volcanic collapse and debris flows: Planchon-Peteroa Volcano, Southern Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Tormey, Daniel

2010-11-01

Glaciated mountains are among the most sensitive environments to climatic changes, and recent work has shown that large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes. With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth's most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life. This paper illustrates these effects in well-studied settings, focusing on the end-Pleistocene to Holocene glaciovolcanic growth and destruction of the cone of the active volcano Planchon-Peteroa in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at latitude 35° 15' S, along the border between Chile and Argentina. The development of the volcano over the last 14,000 years illustrates how glacial melting and magmatic activity can trigger landslides and sector collapses. Planchon had a large sector collapse that produced a highly mobile and erosive debris avalanche 11,000 years BP, and other slope instabilities during the end-Pleistocene/early Holocene deglaciation. The summit amphitheater left after the sector collapse was subject to alternating periods of glaciation and melting-induced lake formation. Breaching of the moraine dams then formed lahars and landslides originating at the western edge of the summit amphitheater, and the deposits are preserved along the western flank of the volcano. Deep incision of moraine deposits further down the western slope of the volcano indicates that the lahars and landslides were water-rich and had high erosive power. As illustrated by Planchon-Peteroa, the interplay among glacial growth and melting, magmatic activity, and slope stability is complex, but must be accounted for in volcanic hazard assessment. Planchon-Peteroa currently has the southernmost temperate zone

Psychological aspects in a volcanic crisis: El Hierro Island eruption (October, 2011).

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, P.; Llinares, A.; Garcia, A.; Marrero, J. M.; Ortiz, R.

2012-04-01

The recent eruption on the El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has shown that Psychology plays an important role in the emergence management of a natural phenomenon. However, Psychology continues to have no social coverage it deserves in the mitigation of the effects before, during and after the occurrence of a natural phenomenon. Keep in mind that an unresolved psychological problem involves an individual and collective mismatch may become unrecoverable. The population of El Hierro has been under a state of alert since July 2011, when seismic activity begins, until the occurrence of submarine eruption in October 2011 that is held for more than three months. During this period the inhabitants of the small island have gone through different emotional states ranging from confusion to disappointment. A volcanic eruption occurs not unexpectedly, allowing to have a time of preparation / action before the disaster. From the psychological point of view people from El Hierro Island have responded to different stages of the same natural process. Although the island of El Hierro is of volcanic origin, the population has no historical memory since the last eruption occurred in 1793. Therefore, the educational system does not adequately address the formation in volcanic risk. As a result people feel embarrassment when the seismovolcanic crisis begins, although no earthquakes felt. As an intermediate stage, when the earthquakes are felt by the population, scientists and operational Emergency Plan care to inform and prepare actions in case of a possible eruption. The population feel safe despite the concerns expressed by not knowing where, how and when the eruption will occur. Once started the submarine eruption, taking into account that all the actions (evacuation, relocation, etc.) have worked well and that both their basic needs and security are covered there are new states of mind. These new emotional states ranging from disenchantment with the phenomenology of the

MSBIS: A Multi-Step Biomedical Informatics Screening Approach for Identifying Medications that Mitigate the Risks of Metoclopramide-Induced Tardive Dyskinesia

OpenAIRE

Dong Xu; Alexandrea G. Ham; Rickey D. Tivis; Matthew L. Caylor; Aoxiang Tao; Steve T. Flynn; Peter J. Economen; Hung K. Dang; Royal W. Johnson; Vaughn L. Culbertson

2017-01-01

In 2009 the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) placed a black box warning on metoclopramide (MCP) due to the increased risks and prevalence of tardive dyskinesia (TD). In this study, we developed a multi-step biomedical informatics screening (MSBIS) approach leveraging publicly available bioactivity and drug safety data to identify concomitant drugs that mitigate the risks of MCP-induced TD. MSBIS includes (1) TargetSearch (http://dxulab.org/software) bioinformatics scoring for drug anti...

Knowledge, risk perception and mitigation measures towards Ebola virus disease by potentially exposed bushmeat handlers in north-central Nigeria: Any critical gap?

Science.gov (United States)

Alhaji, N B; Yatswako, S; Oddoh, E Y

2018-02-01

The bushmeat industry has been a topic of increasing importance among public health officials for its influence on zoonotic diseases transmission, such as Ebola virus disease (EVD), a rare and severe infectious disease of humans and non-human primates. This survey assessed knowledge/awareness, risk perceptions and mitigation practices towards EVD among bushmeat handlers in north-central Nigeria. These characteristics are premise to level of preparedness against appropriate risk prevention and control. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study was conducted between January and December 2015 on 395 bushmeat handlers. Descriptive and analytical statistical analyses were performed using Epi-Info 3.5.3 software, and p knowledge than the hunters. Handlers with tertiary education were more likely (OR 3.22; 95% CI: 1.56-6.67) to possess significant satisfactory knowledge/awareness about EVD. Also, vendors were more likely (OR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.01-3.42) to practice satisfactory mitigation measures than the hunters. Only handlers with tertiary education were more likely (OR 2.48; 95% CI: 1.26-4.89) to significantly practice satisfactory mitigation measures against EVD. Although most of the handlers possessed significant knowledge/awareness about EVD, few applied mitigation measures against its infection, which is the challenging gap. There is a need for collaborations between the public health, veterinary and wildlife authorities in the provision of health information to bushmeat handlers on better management of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic viral diseases of wildlife origin. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Structural Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Low- to Mid-Rise Residential Buildings in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasim A. Korkmaz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available China has experienced major earthquakes recently. The 2014 Ludian earthquake struck Ludian County, Yunnan, (Mw = 6.1 on 3 August, 2014. On April 20th 2013, Ya’an earthquake (Mw = 6.9, on April 14th 2010, Qinghai earthquake (Mw = 7.1, on July 9th 2009, Yunnan earthquake (Mw = 6.0, and on May 12th 2008, Sichuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9 struck China. Among these disasters, the most devastating, the Sichuan earthquake, resulted in the collapse of 5 million buildings and damage to more than 21 million. Human loss was also high with over 60,000 people dead, 360,000 injured, and more than 14 million people displaced. South-west China lies in an area that is prone to earthquakes. In 1970, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Yunnan with 15,000 lost. This study presents a detailed risk assessment for a structural risk assessment and mitigation for low- to mid-rise residential buildings for China. The risk assessment, through seismic hazard assessment approaches, evaluates the impact of the disasters for integrated structural health monitoring. Among the results of the investigation, relations and links between safety and risk are defined.

Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Heidari

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

CERN Document Server

Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

2012-01-01

This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

2015-04-01

Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

44 CFR 201.7 - Tribal Mitigation Plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... initiatives. (2) A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to... significant, even if they cannot be valued in monetary terms. (3) A mitigation strategy that provides the Indian tribal government's blueprint for reducing the potential losses identified in the risk assessment...

Risk Mitigation Testing with the BepiColombo MPO SADA

Science.gov (United States)

Zemann, J.; Heinrich, B.; Skulicz, A.; Madsen, M.; Weisenstein, W.; Modugno, F.; Althaus, F.; Panhofer, T.; Osterseher, G.

2013-09-01

A Solar Array (SA) Drive Assembly (SADA) for the BepiColombo mission is being developed and qualified at RUAG Space Zürich (RSSZ). The system is consisting of the Solar Array Drive Mechanism (SADM) and the Solar Array Drive Electronics (SADE) which is subcontracted to RUAG Space Austria (RSA).This paper deals with the risk mitigation activities and the lesson learnt from this development. In specific following topics substantiated by bread board (BB) test results will be addressed in detail:Slipring Bread Board Test: Verification of lifetime and electrical performance of carbon brush technology Potentiometer BB Tests: Focus on lifetime verification (> 650000 revolution) and accuracy requirement SADM EM BB Test: Subcomponent (front-bearing and gearbox) characterization; complete test campaign equivalent to QM test.EM SADM/ SADE Combined Test: Verification of combined performance (accuracy, torque margin) and micro-vibration testing of SADA systemSADE Bread Board Test: Parameter optimization; Test campaign equivalent to QM testThe main improvements identified in frame of BB testing and already implemented in the SADM EM/QM and SADE EQM are:• Improved preload device for gearbox• Improved motor ball-bearing assembly• Position sensor improvements• Calibration process for potentiometer• SADE motor controller optimization toachieve required running smoothness• Overall improvement of test equipment.

Closer look at lunar volcanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaniman, D.T.; Heiken, G.; Taylor, G.J.

1984-01-01

Although the American Apollo and Soviet Luna missions concentrated on mare basalt samples, major questions remain about lunar volcanism. Lunar field work will be indispensable for resolving the scientific questions about ages, compositions, and eruption processes of lunar volcanism. From a utilitarian standpoint, a better knowledge of lunar volcanism will also yield profitable returns in lunar base construction (e.g., exploitation of rille or lava-tube structures) and in access to materials such as volatile elements, pure glass, or ilmenite for lunar industry

Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible

Science.gov (United States)

Shue, Henry

2018-05-01

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation. This article is part of the themed issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Mitigation gambles: uncertainty, urgency and the last gamble possible.

Science.gov (United States)

Shue, Henry

2018-05-13

A rejection by current generations of more ambitious mitigation of carbon emissions inflicts on future generations inherently objectionable risks about which they have no choice. Any gains through savings from less ambitious mitigation, which are relatively minor, would accrue to current generations, and all losses, which are relatively major, would fall on future generations. This mitigation gamble is especially unjustifiable because it imposes a risk of unlimited losses until carbon emissions cease. Ultimate physical collapses remain possible. Much more ominous is prior social collapse from political struggles over conflicting responses to threatened physical collapse. The two most plausible objections to the thesis that less ambitious mitigation is unjustifiable rely, respectively, on the claim that negative emissions will allow a later recovery from a temporary overshoot in emissions and on the claim that ambitious mitigation is incompatible with poverty alleviation that depends on inexpensive fossil fuels. Neither objection stands up. Reliance on negative emissions later instead of ambitious mitigation now permits the passing of tipping points for irreversible change meanwhile, and non-carbon energy is rapidly becoming price competitive in developing countries like India that are committed to poverty alleviation.This article is part of the themed issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

2014-06-01

The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

Lidar sounding of volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Angelini, Federico; Borelli, Rodolfo; Del Franco, Mario; Murra, Daniele; Pistilli, Marco; Puiu, Adriana; Santoro, Simone

2013-10-01

Accurate knowledge of gas composition in volcanic plumes has high scientific and societal value. On the one hand, it gives information on the geophysical processes taking place inside volcanos; on the other hand, it provides alert on possible eruptions. For this reasons, it has been suggested to monitor volcanic plumes by lidar. In particular, one of the aims of the FP7 ERC project BRIDGE is the measurement of CO2 concentration in volcanic gases by differential absorption lidar. This is a very challenging task due to the harsh environment, the narrowness and weakness of the CO2 absorption lines and the difficulty to procure a suitable laser source. This paper, after a review on remote sensing of volcanic plumes, reports on the current progress of the lidar system.

Gas measurements from the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment suggest possible along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Aiuppa, A.; Robidoux, P.; Tamburello, G.; Conde, V.; Galle, B.; Avard, G.; Bagnato, E.; De Moor, J. M.; Martínez, M.; Muñóz, A.

2014-12-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of the CO2 output from arc volcanism requires a precise understanding of the potential along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry, and ultimately of the magmatic gas signature of each individual arc segment. In an attempt to more fully constrain the magmatic gas signature of the Central America Volcanic Arc (CAVA), we present here the results of a volcanic gas survey performed during March and April 2013 at five degassing volcanoes within the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment (CNVS). Observations of the volcanic gas plume made with a multicomponent gas analyzer system (Multi-GAS) have allowed characterization of the CO2/SO2-ratio signature of the plumes at Poás (0.30±0.06, mean ± SD), Rincón de la Vieja (27.0±15.3), and Turrialba (2.2±0.8) in Costa Rica, and at Telica (3.0±0.9) and San Cristóbal (4.2±1.3) in Nicaragua (all ratios on molar basis). By scaling these plume compositions to simultaneously measured SO2 fluxes, we estimate that the CO2 outputs at CNVS volcanoes range from low (25.5±11.0 tons/day at Poás) to moderate (918 to 1270 tons/day at Turrialba). These results add a new information to the still fragmentary volcanic CO2 output data set, and allow estimating the total CO2 output from the CNVS at 2835±1364 tons/day. Our novel results, with previously available information about gas emissions in Central America, are suggestive of distinct volcanic gas CO2/ST (= SO2 + H2S)-ratio signature for magmatic volatiles in Nicaragua (∼3) relative to Costa Rica (∼0.5-1.0). We also provide additional evidence for the earlier theory relating the CO2-richer signature of Nicaragua volcanism to increased contributions from slab-derived fluids, relative to more-MORB-like volcanism in Costa Rica. The sizeable along-arc variations in magmatic gas chemistry that the present study has suggested indicate that additional gas observations are urgently needed to more-precisely confine the volcanic CO2 from the CAVA, and from

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support

Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Van Eaton, Alexa; Amigo, Álvaro; Bertin, Daniel; Mastin, Larry G.; Giacosa, Raúl E; González, Jerónimo; Valderrama, Oscar; Fontijn, Karen; Behnke, Sonja A

2016-01-01

Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

Experimental Constraints on Forecasting the Location of Volcanic Eruptions from Pre-eruptive Surface Deformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Guldstrand

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions pose a threat to lives and property when volcano flanks and surroundings are densely populated. The local impact of an eruption depends firstly on its location, whether it occurs near a volcano summit, or down on the flanks. Then forecasting, with a defined accuracy, the location of a potential, imminent eruption would significantly improve the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Currently, the conventional volcano monitoring methods based on the analysis of surface deformation assesses whether a volcano may erupt but are not implemented to locate imminent eruptions in real time. Here we show how surface deformation induced by ascending eruptive feeders can be used to forecast the eruption location through a simple geometrical analysis. Our analysis builds on the results of 33 scaled laboratory experiments simulating the emplacement of viscous magma intrusions in a brittle, cohesive Coulomb crust under lithostatic stress conditions. The intrusion-induced surface deformation was systematically monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. In all the experiments, surface deformation preceding the eruptions resulted in systematic uplift, regardless of the intrusion shape. The analysis of the surface deformation patterns leads to the definition of a vector between the center of the uplifted area and the point of maximum uplift, which systematically acted as a precursor to the eruption's location. The temporal evolution of this vector indicated the direction in which the subsequent eruption would occur and ultimately the location itself, irrespective of the feeder shapes. Our findings represent a new approach on how surface deformation on active volcanoes that are not in active rifts could be analysed and used prior to an eruption with a real potential to improve hazard mitigation.

Structural control of monogenetic volcanism in the Garrotxa volcanic field (Northeastern Spain) from gravity and self-potential measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Barde-Cabusson, S.; Gottsmann, J.; Martí, J.; Bolós, X.; Camacho, A. G.; Geyer, A.; Planagumà, Ll.; Ronchin, E.; Sánchez, A.

2014-01-01

We report new geophysical observations on the distribution of subsurface structures associated with monogenetic volcanism in the Garrotxa volcanic field (Northern Spain). As part of the Catalan Volcanic Zone, this Quaternary volcanic field is associated with the European rifts system. It contains the most recent and best preserved volcanic edifices of the Catalan Volcanic Zone with 38 monogenetic volcanoes identified in the Garrotxa Natural Park. We conducted new gravimetric and self-potential surveys to enhance our understanding of the relationship between the local geology and the spatial distribution of the monogenetic volcanoes. The main finding of this study is that the central part of the volcanic field is dominated by a broad negative Bouguer anomaly of around -0.5 mGal, within which a series of gravity minima are found with amplitudes of up to -2.3 mGal. Inverse modelling of the Bouguer data suggests that surficial low-density material dominates the volcanic field, most likely associated with effusive and explosive surface deposits. In contrast, an arcuate cluster of gravity minima to the NW of the Croscat volcano, the youngest volcano of this zone, is modelled by vertically extended low-density bodies, which we interpret as a complex ensemble of fault damage zones and the roots of young scoria cones. A ground-water infiltration zone identified by a self-potential anomaly is associated with a steep horizontal Bouguer gravity gradient and interpreted as a fault zone and/or magmatic fissure, which fed the most recent volcanic activity in the Garrotxa. Gravimetric and self-potential data are well correlated and indicate a control on the locations of scoria cones by NNE-SSW and NNW-SSE striking tectonic features, which intersect the main structural boundaries of the study area to the north and south. Our interpretation of the data is that faults facilitated magma ascent to the surface. Our findings have major implications for understanding the relationship

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

1997-09-23

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-10-15

This publication provides comprehensive and updated guidance for site evaluation in relation to volcanic hazards. It includes recommendations on assessing the volcanic hazards at a nuclear installation site, in order to identify and characterize, in a comprehensive manner, all potentially hazardous phenomena that may be associated with future volcanic events. It describes how some of these volcanic phenomena may affect the acceptability of the selected site, resulting in exclusion of a site or determining the corresponding design basis parameters for the installation. This Safety Guide is applicable to both existing and new sites, and a graded approach is recommended to cater for all types of nuclear installations. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of volcanic hazard assessment; 3. General recommendations; 4. Necessary information and investigations (database); 5. Screening of volcanic hazards; 6. Site specific volcanic hazard assessment; 7. Nuclear installations other than nuclear power plants; 8. Monitoring and preparation for response; 9. Management system for volcanic hazard assessment; Annex I: Volcanic hazard scenarios; Annex II: Worldwide sources of information.

Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

1995-07-01

In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

Geophysical expression of caldera related volcanism, structures and mineralization in the McDermitt volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Rytuba, J. J.; Blakely, R. J.; Moring, B.; Miller, R.

2013-12-01

The High Rock, Lake Owyhee, and McDermitt volcanic fields, consisting of regionally extensive ash flow tuffs and associated calderas, developed in NW Nevada and SE Oregon following eruption of the ca. 16.7 Ma Steens flood basalt. The first ash flow, the Tuff of Oregon Canyon, erupted from the McDermitt volcanic field at 16.5Ma. It is chemically zoned from peralkaline rhyolite to dacite with trace element ratios that distinguish it from other ash flow tuffs. The source caldera, based on tuff distribution, thickness, and size of lithic fragments, is in the area in which the McDermitt caldera (16.3 Ma) subsequently formed. Gravity and magnetic anomalies are associated with some but not all of the calderas. The White Horse caldera (15.6 Ma), the youngest caldera in the McDermitt volcanic field has the best geophysical expression, with both aeromagnetic and gravity lows coinciding with the caldera. Detailed aeromagnetic and gravity surveys of the McDermitt caldera, combined with geology and radiometric surveys, provides insight into the complexities of caldera collapse, resurgence, post collapse volcanism, and hydrothermal mineralization. The McDermitt caldera is among the most mineralized calderas in the world, whereas other calderas in these three Mid Miocene volcanic fields do not contain important hydrothermal ore deposits, despite having similar age and chemistry. The McDermitt caldera is host to Hg, U, and Li deposits and potentially significant resources of Ga, Sb, and REE. The geophysical data indicate that post-caldera collapse intrusions were important in formation of the hydrothermal systems. An aeromagnetic low along the E caldera margin reflects an intrusion at a depth of 2 km associated with the near-surface McDermitt-hot-spring-type Hg-Sb deposit, and the deeper level, high-sulfidation Ga-REE occurrence. The Li deposits on the W side of the caldera are associated with a series of low amplitude, small diameter aeromagnetic anomalies that form a continuous

Insurability and mitigation of flood losses in private households in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Thieken, Annegret H; Petrow, Theresia; Kreibich, Heidi; Merz, Bruno

2006-04-01

In Germany, flood insurance is provided by private insurers as a supplement to building or contents insurance. This article presents the results of a survey of insurance companies with regard to eligibility conditions for flood insurance changes after August 2002, when a severe flood caused 1.8 billion euro of insured losses in the Elbe and the Danube catchment areas, and the general role of insurance in flood risk management in Germany. Besides insurance coverage, governmental funding and public donations played an important role in loss compensation after the August 2002 flood. Therefore, this article also analyzes flood loss compensation, risk awareness, and mitigation in insured and uninsured private households. Insured households received loss compensation earlier. They also showed slightly better risk awareness and mitigation strategies. Appropriate incentives should be combined with flood insurance in order to strengthen future private flood loss mitigation. However, there is some evidence that the surveyed insurance companies do little to encourage precautionary measures. To overcome this problem, flood hazards and mitigation strategies should be better communicated to both insurance companies and property owners.

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still

Encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds; A compilation of known incidents, 1953-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, Marianne; Casadevall, Thomas J.; Budding, Karin

2010-01-01

, infrequent events. Moderate-size (Volcanic Explosivity Index 3) eruptions are responsible for nearly half of the damaging encounters. Vigilance is required during the early phases of eruptive activity when data about ash emission may be the most limited and warning capabilities the most strained, yet the risk the greatest. The risk-mitigation strategy for minimizing damaging encounters continues to rely on the combination of real-time volcano monitoring and rapid eruption reporting, detection and tracking of ash clouds in the atmosphere using satellite-based sensors, dispersion modeling to forecast expected ash-cloud movement, and global dissemination of specialized warning messages. To obtain the entire Data Series 545 report, download the text file and appendixes 1-4, which are available as separate files. Click on the links at right. Please Send Updates We hope that publication of this compilation will encourage more reporting of encounters by the aviation industry and civil aviation authorities. We actively seek corrections and additions to the information presented here. Persons who have corrections or additional data pertaining to incidents already in the database or who have data about previously unreported incidents are urged to contact the authors.

Modelling ground deformation patterns associated with volcanic processes at the Okataina Volcanic Centre

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, L.; Cas, R.; Fournier, N.; Ailleres, L.

2017-09-01

The Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is one of two large active rhyolite centres in the modern Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the North Island of New Zealand. It is located in a complex section of the Taupo rift, a tectonically active section of the TVZ. The most recent volcanic unrest at the OVC includes the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions. Current monitoring activity at the OVC includes the use of continuous GPS receivers (cGPS), lake levelling and seismographs. The ground deformation patterns preceding volcanic activity the OVC are poorly constrained and restricted to predictions from basic modelling and comparison to other volcanoes worldwide. A better understanding of the deformation patterns preceding renewed volcanic activity is essential to determine if observed deformation is related to volcanic, tectonic or hydrothermal processes. Such an understanding also means that the ability of the present day cGPS network to detect these deformation patterns can also be assessed. The research presented here uses the finite element (FE) modelling technique to investigate ground deformation patterns associated with magma accumulation and diking processes at the OVC in greater detail. A number of FE models are produced and tested using Pylith software and incorporate characteristics of the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions, summarised from the existing body of research literature. The influence of a simple ring fault structure at the OVC on the modelled deformation is evaluated. The ability of the present-day continuous GPS (cGPS) GeoNet monitoring network to detect or observe the modelled deformation is also considered. The results show the modelled horizontal and vertical displacement fields have a number of key features, which include prominent lobe based regions extending northwest and southeast of the OVC. The results also show that the ring fault structure increases the magnitude of the displacements inside the caldera, in particular in the

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

2015-01-01

We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

2017-03-07

Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

Preliminary Field Tests and Long-Term Monitoring as a Method of Design Risk Mitigation: A Case Study of Gdańsk Deepwater Container Terminal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miśkiewicz Mikołaj

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Appropriate risk assessment plays a fundamental role in the design. . The authors propose a possible method of design risk mitigation, which follows recommendations included in Eurocode 7. The so-called “Observational Method” (OM can produce savings in costs and programmes on engineering projects without compromising safety. The case study presented is a complex design solution that deals with the heavy foundations of a gantry crane beam as one of the elements of a Deepwater Container Terminal extension. The paper presents a detailed process of the design of the rear crane beam being a part of the brand new berth, together with its static analysis, as well as the long-term results of observations, which have revealed the real performance of the marine structure. The case presented is based on excessive preliminary field tests and technical monitoring of the structure, and is an example of a successful OM implementation and design risk mitigation.

WOVOdat Design Document: The Schema, Table Descriptions, and Create Table Statements for the Database of Worldwide Volcanic Unrest (WOVOdat Version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Venezky, Dina Y.; Newhall, Christopher G.

2007-01-01

WOVOdat Overview During periods of volcanic unrest, the ability to forecast near future activity has been a primary concern for human populations living near volcanoes. Our ability to forecast future activity and mitigate hazards is based on knowledge of previous activity at the volcano exhibiting unrest and knowledge of previous activity at similar volcanoes. A small set of experts with past experience are often involved in forecasting. We need to both preserve the knowledge the experts use and continue to investigate volcanic data to make better forecasts. Advances in instrumentation, networking, and data storage technologies have greatly increased our ability to collect volcanic data and share observations with our colleagues. The wealth of data creates numerous opportunities for gaining a better understanding of magmatic conditions and processes, if the data can be easily accessed for comparison. To allow for comparison of volcanic unrest data, we are creating a central database called WOVOdat. WOVOdat will contain a subset of time-series and geo-referenced data from each WOVO observatory in common and easily accessible formats. WOVOdat is being created for volcano experts in charge of forecasting volcanic activity, scientists investigating volcanic processes, and the public. The types of queries each of these groups might ask range from, 'What volcanoes were active in November of 2002?' and 'What are the relationships between tectonic earthquakes and volcanic processes?' to complex analyses of volcanic unrest to determine what future activity might occur. A new structure for storing and accessing our data was needed to examine processes across a wide range of volcanologic conditions. WOVOdat provides this new structure using relationships to connect the data parameters such that searches can be created for analogs of unrest. The subset of data that will fill WOVOdat will continue to be collected by the observatories, who will remain the primary archives of raw

Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

2014-12-01

Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joep F. Schyns

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mather, T. A.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

Quantitative volcanic susceptibility analysis of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands based on kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process

Science.gov (United States)

Galindo, I.; Romero, M. C.; Sánchez, N.; Morales, J. M.

2016-06-01

Risk management stakeholders in high-populated volcanic islands should be provided with the latest high-quality volcanic information. We present here the first volcanic susceptibility map of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands and their submarine flanks based on updated chronostratigraphical and volcano structural data, as well as on the geomorphological analysis of the bathymetric data of the submarine flanks. The role of the structural elements in the volcanic susceptibility analysis has been reviewed: vents have been considered since they indicate where previous eruptions took place; eruptive fissures provide information about the stress field as they are the superficial expression of the dyke conduit; eroded dykes have been discarded since they are single non-feeder dykes intruded in deep parts of Miocene-Pliocene volcanic edifices; main faults have been taken into account only in those cases where they could modified the superficial movement of magma. The application of kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process for the volcanic susceptibility assessment has been applied successfully to Lanzarote and could be applied to other fissure volcanic fields worldwide since the results provide information about the probable area where an eruption could take place but also about the main direction of the probable volcanic fissures.

Initial results from the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia project: Microearthquakes in the northern Harrat Rahat monogenetic volcanic field, Madinah, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Kenedi, C. L.; Alvarez, M. G.; Abdelwahed, M. F.; Aboud, E.; Lindsay, J. M.; Mokhtar, T. A.; Moufti, M. R.

2012-12-01

An 8-station borehole seismic research array is recording microearthquake data in northern Harrat Rahat. This recently active monogenetic volcanic field lies southeast of the Islamic holy city of Madinah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The VORiSA seismographs are operated in collaboration between King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and the Institute of Earth Science and Engineering, University of Auckland, in New Zealand. The goal of the VORiSA project is to evaluate the seismic and volcanic hazard around Madinah. To this end, we will evaluate the local earthquake activity including the extent to which local earthquakes are tectonic or volcanic. We also will use seismicity to understand the subsurface structure. The analytical goals of the seismic research array are the following: (1) Calculate a new seismic velocity model, (2) Map subsurface structures using seismic tomography, and (3) Explore for fracture zones using shear wave splitting analysis. As compared to seismographs installed on the surface, borehole seismometers detect smaller and more numerous microearthquake signals. The sensitivity and location of the borehole sensors in the VORiSA array are designed to detect these weak signals. The array has a total aperture of 17 km with station spacing at 5 - 10 km. The seismometers are housed in IESE model S21g-2.0, two Hz, 3-component borehole sondes. Sensor depths range from 107 - 121 m. The data acquisition system at each stand-alone station consists of a Reftek 130-01, 6-channel, 24 bit data logger which records at 250 samples per second. The power source is a deep cycle battery with solar recharge. Local temperatures reach extremes of 0° to 50°C, so the battery and recorder are contained in a specially designed underground vault. The vault also provides security in the remote and sparsely populated volcanic field. Recording began on 31 March 2012. An average of one earthquake every three days suggests that currently this is not a highly seismic area. However

Geomorphological Approach for Regional Zoning In The Merapi Volcanic Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Langgeng Wahyu Santosa

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Geomorphologial approach can be used as the basic for identifying and analyzing the natural resources potentials, especially in volcanic landscape. Based on its geomorphology, Merapi volcanic landscape can be divided into 5 morphological units, i.e.: volcanic cone, volcanic slope, volcanic foot, volcanic foot plain, and fluvio-volcanic plain. Each of these morphological units has specific characteristic and natural resources potential. Based on the condition of geomorphology, the regional zoning can be compiled to support the land use planning and to maintain the conservation of environmental function in the Merapi Volcanic area.

Mitigation of severe accidents in light water reactors: Chapter 8

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Catton, I.

1983-01-01

As part of the NRC program on degraded core and core-melt accidents beyond the design basis, the work presented here focuses on containment mitigation systems. Included are studies aimed at estimating the risk reduction potential for filtered-vented containment systems, passive containment heat removal systems, and features to mitigate against hydrogen burns and base mat penetration. Specific aspects of mitigation for Zion, Indian Poin and Limerick plants are considered. For Zion, consideration of a filtered-vented containment system and a passive containment heat removal system was considered. For Indian Point, the use of heat pipes for passive heat removal was considered. Lastly, for Limerick a low-volume filtered venting system was found to provide a risk reduction factor on the order of 17, when based on man-rem reduction

Transition of neogene arc volcanism in central-western Hokkaido, viewed from K-Ar ages, style of volcanic activity, and bulk rock chemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirose, Wataru; Iwasaki, Miyuki; Nakagawa, Mitsuhiro [Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan)

2000-02-01

Spatial and temporal variations in late Cenozoic volcanism of southwestern Hokkaido at the northern end of NE-Japan arc have been clarified by 261 K-Ar and 76 FT ages including 49 newly determined K-Ar ages, volcanic stratigraphy, physical volcanology and whole-rock geochemistry. Arc volcanism characterized by rocks with low-Ti and Nb, and by across-arc increase in K{sub 2}O content in these rocks has continued at least since 12 Ma. Based on volcanic stratigraphy, physical volcanology and whole-rock geochemistry, volcanism after 12 Ma can be subdivided into 4 stages, 12-5, 5-1.7, and 1.7-0 Ma. The volcanism from 12 Ma to 5 Ma extended northward widely compared with distribution of Quaternary arc volcanism (1.7-0 Ma). This suggests that the arc trench junction between Kuril and NE-Japan arc's trenches was located about 100 km northward from the present position. Since around 5 Ma until 1.7 Ma, different type of volcanism under local extension field, characterized by a group of monogenetic volcanoes of alkali basalt and shield volcanoes of calc-alkaline andesite, had occurred at northern end of the volcanic region (Takikawa-Mashike region). During and after this volcanism, the northern edge of arc volcanism in the area has migrated southward. This suggests that the trench junction has migrated about 100 km southward since {approx}5 Ma. The quaternary arc volcanism (1.7-0 Ma) has been restricted at the southern part of the region. The volcanism since 12 Ma might be influenced by oblique subduction of Pacific plate beneath Kuril arc, resulting in the formation of local back arc basin at the junction and to southward migration of the trench junction. (author)

Slab dehydration in Cascadia and its relationship to volcanism, seismicity, and non-volcanic tremor

Science.gov (United States)

Delph, J. R.; Levander, A.; Niu, F.

2017-12-01

The characteristics of subduction beneath the Pacific Northwest (Cascadia) are variable along strike, leading to the segmentation of Cascadia into 3 general zones: Klamath, Siletzia, and Wrangelia. These zones show marked differences in tremor density, earthquake density, seismicity rates, and the locus and amount of volcanism in the subduction-related volcanic arc. To better understand what controls these variations, we have constructed a 3D shear-wave velocity model of the upper 80 km along the Cascadia margin from the joint inversion of CCP-derived receiver functions and ambient noise surface wave data using 900 temporary and permanent broadband seismic stations. With this model, we can investigate variations in the seismic structure of the downgoing oceanic lithosphere and overlying mantle wedge, the character of the crust-mantle transition beneath the volcanic arc, and local to regional variations in crustal structure. From these results, we infer the presence and distribution of fluids released from the subducting slab and how they affect the seismic structure of the overriding lithosphere. In the Klamath and Wrangelia zones, high seismicity rates in the subducting plate and high tremor density correlate with low shear velocities in the overriding plate's forearc and relatively little arc volcanism. While the cause of tremor is debated, intermediate depth earthquakes are generally thought to be due to metamorphic dehydration reactions resulting from the dewatering of the downgoing slab. Thus, the seismic characteristics of these zones combined with rather sparse arc volcanism may indicate that the slab has largely dewatered by the time it reaches sub-arc depths. Some of the water released during earthquakes (and possibly tremor) may percolate into the overriding plate, leading to slow seismic velocities in the forearc. In contrast, Siletzia shows relatively low seismicity rates and tremor density, with relatively higher shear velocities in the forearc

Sediment transport in headwaters of a volcanic catchment—Kamchatka Peninsula case study

Science.gov (United States)

Chalov, Sergey R.; Tsyplenkov, Anatolii S.; Pietron, Jan; Chalova, Aleksandra S.; Shkolnyi, Danila I.; Jarsjö, Jerker; Maerker, Michael

2017-09-01

Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring causes that the governing processes and patterns in these areas are rarely well understood. In this study, spatiotemporal water discharge and sediment transport from upstream sources was investigated in one of the numerous headwater catchments located in the lahar valleys of the Kamchatka Peninsula Sukhaya Elizovskaya River near Avachinskii and Koryakskii volcanoes. Three different subcatchments and corresponding channel types (wandering rivers within lahar valleys, mountain rivers within volcanic slopes and rivers within submountain terrains) were identified in the studied area. Our measurements from different periods of observations between years 2012-2014 showed that the studied catchment was characterized by extreme diurnal fluctuation of water discharges and sediment loads that were influenced by snowmelt patterns and high infiltration rates of the easily erodible lahar deposits. The highest recorded sediment loads were up to 9•104 mg/L which was related to an increase of two orders of magnitude within a one day of observations. Additionally, to get a quantitative estimate of the spatial distribution of the eroded material in the volcanic substrates we applied an empirical soil erosion and sediment yield model-modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE). The modeling results showed that even if the applications of the universal erosion model to different non-agricultural areas (e.g., volcanic catchments) can lead to irrelevant results, the MUSLE model delivered might be acceptable for non-lahar areas of the studied volcanic catchment. Overall the results of our study increase our understanding of the hydrology and associated sediment transport for prediction of risk management within headwater volcanic catchments.

Seismological evidence for a sub-volcanic arc mantle wedge beneath the Denali volcanic gap, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D.E.; Pasyanos, M.E.

2002-01-01

Arc volcanism in Alaska is strongly correlated with the 100 km depth contour of the western Aluetian Wadati-Benioff zone. Above the eastern portion of the Wadati-Benioff zone however, there is a distinct lack of volcanism (the Denali volcanic gap). We observe high Poisson's ratio values (0.29-0.33) over the entire length of the Alaskan subduction zone mantle wedge based on regional variations of Pn and Sn velocities. High Poisson's ratios at this depth (40-70 km), adjacent to the subducting slab, are attributed to melting of mantle-wedge peridotites, caused by fluids liberated from the subducting oceanic crust and sediments. Observations of high values of Poisson's ratio, beneath the Denali volcanic gap suggest that the mantle wedge contains melted material that is unable to reach the surface. We suggest that its inability to migrate through the overlying crust is due to increased compression in the crust at the northern apex of the curved Denali fault.

Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heggie, Travis W

2009-09-01

Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

Volcanic Gases and Hot Spring Water to Evaluate the Volcanic Activity of the Mt. Baekdusan

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Yun, S. H.; Lee, S.; Chang, C.

2017-12-01

This study performed the analysis on the volcanic gases and hot spring waters from the Julong hot spring at Mt. Baekdu, also known as Changbaishan on the North Korea(DPRK)-China border, during the period from July 2015 to August 2016. Also, we confirmed the errors that HCO3- concentrations of hot spring waters in the previous study (Lee et al. 2014) and tried to improve the problem. Dissolved CO2 in hot spring waters was analyzed using gas chromatograph in Lee et al.(2014). Improving this, from 2015, we used TOC-IC to analysis dissolved CO2. Also, we analyzed the Na2CO3 standard solutions of different concentrations using GC, and confirmed the correlation between the analytical concentrations and the real concentrations. However, because the analytical results of the Julong hot spring water were in discord with the estimated values based on this correlation, we can't estimate the HCO3-concentrations of 2014 samples. During the period of study, CO2/CH4 ratios in volcanic gases are gradually decreased, and this can be interpreted in two different ways. The first interpretation is that the conditions inside the volcanic edifice are changing into more reduction condition, and carbon in volcanic gases become more favorable to distribute into CH4 or CO than CO2. The second interpretation is that the interaction between volcanic gases and water becomes greater than past, and the concentrations of CO2which have much higher solubility in water decreased, relatively. In general, the effect of scrubbing of volcanic gas is strengthened during the quiet periods of volcanic activity rather than active periods. Meanwhile, the analysis of hot spring waters was done on the anion of acidic gases species, the major cations, and some trace elements (As, Cd, Re).This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-3060.

Characterising volcanic cycles at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Time series analysis of multi-parameter satellite data

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Flower, Verity J. B.; Carn, Simon A.

2015-10-01

The identification of cyclic volcanic activity can elucidate underlying eruption dynamics and aid volcanic hazard mitigation. Whilst satellite datasets are often analysed individually, here we exploit the multi-platform NASA A-Train satellite constellation to cross-correlate cyclical signals identified using complementary measurement techniques at Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. In this paper we present a Multi-taper (MTM) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of coincident SO2 and thermal infrared (TIR) satellite measurements at SHV facilitating the identification of cyclical volcanic behaviour. These measurements were collected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (respectively) in the A-Train. We identify a correlating cycle in both the OMI and MODIS data (54-58 days), with this multi-week feature attributable to episodes of dome growth. The 50 day cycles were also identified in ground-based SO2 data at SHV, confirming the validity of our analysis and further corroborating the presence of this cycle at the volcano. In addition a 12 day cycle was identified in the OMI data, previously attributed to variable lava effusion rates on shorter timescales. OMI data also display a one week (7-8 days) cycle attributable to cyclical variations in viewing angle resulting from the orbital characteristics of the Aura satellite. Longer period cycles possibly relating to magma intrusion were identified in the OMI record (102-, 121-, and 159 days); in addition to a 238-day cycle identified in the MODIS data corresponding to periodic destabilisation of the lava dome. Through the analysis of reconstructions generated from cycles identified in the OMI and MODIS data, periods of unrest were identified, including the major dome collapse of 20th May 2006 and significant explosive event of 3rd January 2009. Our analysis confirms the potential for identification of cyclical volcanic activity through combined

Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

Science.gov (United States)

Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

2014-10-01

In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

Timing and compositional evolution of Late Pleistocene to Holocene volcanism within the Harrat Rahat volcanic field, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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Stelten, M. E.; Downs, D. T.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Harrat Rahat is one of the largest ( 20,000 km2) of 15 active Cenozoic volcanic fields that stretch 3,000 km along the western Arabian Peninsula from Yemen to Syria. The Harrat Rahat volcanic field is 310 km long (N-S) by 75 km wide (E-W), and is dominated by alkalic basalts with minor hawaiite, mugearite, benmoreite, and trachyte eruptives. The timing of volcanism within greater Harrat Rahat is poorly constrained, but field relations and geochronology indicate that northern Harrat Rahat hosted the most recent eruptions. To better constrain the timing and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat during this recent phase, we present 743 geochemical analyses, 144 40Ar/39Ar ages, and 9 36Cl exposure ages for volcanic strata from northernmost Harrat Rahat. These data demonstrate that volcanism has been ongoing from at least 1.2 Ma to the present, with the most recent eruption known from historical accounts at 1256 CE. Basalt has erupted persistently from 1.2 Ma to the present, but more evolved volcanism has been episodic. Benmoreite erupted at 1.1 Ma and between 550 to 400 ka. Trachytic volcanism has only occurred over the past 150 ka, with the most recent eruption at 5 ka. Aside from the well-documented basaltic eruption at 1256 CE, prior workers interpreted 6 additional basaltic eruptions during the Holocene. However, our 36Cl exposure ages demonstrate that these erupted between 60 to 13 ka. Interestingly, in the northern part of our field area, where the spatial density of volcanic vents is low, young volcanism (<150 ka) is dominated by basaltic eruptions. Conversely, young volcanism in the southern part of our field area, where volcanic vent density is high, is dominated by trachyte. This observation is consistent with a process wherein the time-integrated effects of basaltic influx into the crust in the south produced a mafic intrusive complex, through which younger basaltic magmas cannot ascend. Instead, these magmas stall and produce trachyte, likely through

Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative LNG vapor-mitigation measures. Topical report, September 14, 1987-January 15, 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atallah, S.

1992-01-01

A generalized methodology is presented for comparing the costs and safety benefits of alternative hazard mitigation measures for a large LNG vapor release. The procedure involves the quantification of the risk to the public before and after the application of LNG vapor mitigation measures. In the study, risk was defined as the product of the annual accident frequency, estimated from a fault tree analysis, and the severity of the accident. Severity was measured in terms of the number of people who may be exposed to 2.5% or higher concentration. The ratios of the annual costs of the various mitigation measures to their safety benefits (as determined by the differences between the risk before and after mitigation measure implementation), were then used to identify the most cost-effective approaches to vapor cloud mitigation

A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athanasios Podaras

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

The Ngorongoro Volcanic Highland and its relationships to volcanic deposits at Olduvai Gorge and East African Rift volcanism.

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Mollel, Godwin F; Swisher, Carl C

2012-08-01

The Ngorongoro Volcanic Highland (NVH), situated adjacent and to the east of Olduvai Gorge in northern Tanzania, is the source of the immense quantities of lava, ignimbrite, air fall ash, and volcaniclastic debris that occur interbedded in the Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary deposits in the Laetoli and Olduvai areas. These volcanics have proven crucial to unraveling stratigraphic correlations, the age of these successions, the archaeological and paleontological remains, as well as the source materials from which the bulk of the stone tools were manufactured. The NVH towers some 2,000 m above the Olduvai and Laetoli landscapes, affecting local climate, run-off, and providing varying elevation - climate controlled ecosystem, habitats, and riparian corridors extending into the Olduvai and Laetoli lowlands. The NVH also plays a crucial role in addressing the genesis and history of East African Rift (EAR) magmatism in northern Tanzania. In this contribution, we provide age and petrochemical compositions of the major NVH centers: Lemagurut, basalt to benmorite, 2.4-2.2 Ma; Satiman, tephrite to phonolite, 4.6-3.5 Ma; Oldeani, basalt to trachyandesite, 1.6-1.5 Ma; Ngorongoro, basalt to rhyolite, 2.3-2.0 Ma; Olmoti, basalt to trachyte, 2.0-1.8 Ma; Embagai, nephelinite to phonolite, 1.2-0.6 Ma; and Engelosin, phonolite, 3-2.7 Ma. We then discuss how these correlate in time and composition with volcanics preserved at Olduvai Gorge. Finally, we place this into context with our current understanding as to the eruptive history of the NVH and relationship to East African Rift volcanism. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MAFALDA: An early warning modeling tool to forecast volcanic ash dispersal and deposition

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

2008-12-01

Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a Web-based early warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling and Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF, that couples the column ascent phase with the ash cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the Web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2-D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

2015-01-01

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

2014-05-01

Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

2010-02-15

In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching