WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcanic risk mitigation

  1. The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Zuccaro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

  2. Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

  3. Volcanic risk: mitigation of lava flow invasion hazard through optimized barrier configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scifoni, S.; Coltelli, M.; Marsella, M.; Napoleoni, Q.; Del Negro, C.; Proietti, C.; Vicari, A.

    2009-04-01

    In order to mitigate the destructive effects of lava flows along volcanic slopes, the building of artificial barriers is a fundamental action for controlling and slowing down the lava flow advance, as experienced during a few recent eruptions of Etna. The simulated lava path can be used to define an optimize project to locate the work but for a timely action it is also necessary to quickly construct a barrier. Therefore this work investigates different type of engineering work that can be adopted to build up a lava containing barrier for improving the efficiency of the structure. From the analysis of historical cases it is clear that barriers were generally constructed by building up earth, lava blocks and incoherent, low density material. This solution implies complex operational constraints and logistical problems that justify the effort of looking for alternative design. Moreover for optimizing the barrier construction an alternative project of gabion-made barrier was here proposed. In this way the volume of mobilized material is lower than that for a earth barrier, thus reducing the time needed for build up the structure. A second crucial aspect to be considered is the geometry of the barrier which, is one of the few parameters that can be modulated, the others being linked to the morphological and topographical characteristics of the ground. Once the walls have been realized, it may be necessary to be able to expand the structure vertically. The use of gabion has many advantages over loose riprap (earthen walls) owing to their modularity and capability to be stacked in various shapes. Furthermore, the elements which are not inundated by lava can be removed and rapidly used for other barriers. The combination between numerical simulations and gabions will allow a quicker mitigation of risk on lava flows and this is an important aspect for a civil protection intervention in emergency cases.

  4. Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna

    2013-04-01

    Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.

  5. Monitoring volcanic activity with satellite remote sensing to reduce aviation hazard and mitigate the risk: application to the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic activity across the North Pacific (NOPAC) occurs on a daily basis and as such monitoring needs to occur on a 24 hour, 365 days a year basis. The risk to the local population and aviation traffic is too high for this not to happen. Given the size and remoteness of the NOPAC region, satellite remote sensing has become an invaluable tool to monitor the ground activity from the regions volcanoes as well as observe, detect and analyze the volcanic ash clouds that transverse across the Pacific. Here, we describe the satellite data collection, data analysis, real-time alert/alarm systems, observational database and nearly 20-year archive of both automated and manual observations of volcanic activity. We provide examples of where satellite remote sensing has detected precursory activity at volcanoes, prior to the volcanic eruption, as well as different types of eruptive behavior that can be inferred from the time series data. Additionally, we illustrate how the remote sensing data be used to detect volcanic ash in the atmosphere, with some of the pro's and con's to the method as applied to the NOPAC, and how the data can be used with other volcano monitoring techniques, such as seismic monitoring and infrasound, to provide a more complete understanding of a volcanoes behavior. We focus on several large volcanic events across the region, since our archive started in 1993, and show how the system can detect both these large scale events as well as the smaller in size but higher in frequency type events. It's all about how to reduce the risk, improve scenario planning and situational awareness and at the same time providing the best and most reliable hazard assessment from any volcanic activity.

  6. Analysis on the Capacity Building Efforts for Mitigating Volcanic Risks during 2010 Eruption of Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SARI BAHAGIARTI KUSUMAYUDHA

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes on the World erupted again during October to November 2010. Its climax activities happened on 5th November at 00.10 pm, with different type of eruption from Mount Merapi of last 50 years. Ordinary, Mount Merapi activity starts from lava dome development, followed by dome collapse to create pyroclastic flow. This specific character of eruption is called Merapi type. The pyroclastic flows at that time killed 341 people and buried many villages on the southeastern slope, while the secondary hazard of lahar destroyed many other human settlements and infrastructures on the western slope of the volcano. Actually, capacity building program in the areas of around Mount Merapi has been established since more than 15 years ago. In most villages, there are community associations that well trained on volcanic hazard mitigation and early warning system. The association name is Association of Mountains Belt of Merapi. Map of Mount Merapi hazards was also already set by the Center of Volcanology and Geologic Disaster Mitigation. Unfortunately, human are not able to order the nature. The character of Mount Merapi eruption in the year 2010 was inconsistent. There was much higher gas pressure, much longer distant of pyroclastic flow, and much greater volume of volcanic material poured from the crater. This made people and stake holders very astonished in handling the evacuation. However, a socio-cultural factor in this respect is that the local people and agriculturists view Mount Merapi as a God which gives them fertile soil and water for agriculture and are reluctant to move away even under an impending threat of a volcanic hazard. This mind-set of people is a challenge in capacity building as the people prefer in-situ protective measures rather than moving away.

  7. Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquarè, F A; Tormey, D; Vezzoli, L; Okrostsvaridze, A; Tutberidze, B

    2011-07-01

    In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision

  8. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  9. Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: Progress and problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.

    1989-05-01

    At the beginning of the twentieth century, volcanology began to emerge as a modern science as a result of increased interest in eruptive phenomena following some of the worst volcanic disasters in recorded history: Krakatau (Indonesia) in 1883 and Mont Pelée (Martinique), Soufrière (St. Vincent), and Santa María (Guatemala) in 1902. Volcanology is again experiencing a period of heightened public awareness and scientific growth in the 1980s, the worst period since 1902 in terms of volcanic disasters and crises. A review of hazards mitigation approaches and techniques indicates that significant advances have been made in hazards assessment, volcano monitoring, and eruption forecasting. For example, the remarkable accuracy of the predictions of dome-building events at Mount St. Helens since June 1980 is unprecedented. Yet a predictive capability for more voluminous and explosive eruptions still has not been achieved. Studies of magma-induced seismicity and ground deformation continue to provide the most systematic and reliable data for early detection of precursors to eruptions and shallow intrusions. In addition, some other geophysical monitoring techniques and geochemical methods have been refined and are being more widely applied and tested. Comparison of the four major volcanic disasters of the 1980s (Mount St. Helens, U.S.A. (1980), El Chichón, Mexico (1982); Galunggung, Indonesia (1982); and Nevado del Ruíz, Colombia (1985) illustrates the importance of predisaster geoscience studies, volcanic hazards assessments, volcano monitoring, contingency planning, and effective communications between scientists and authorities. The death toll (>22,000) from the Ruíz catastrophe probably could have been greatly reduced; the reasons for the tragically ineffective implementation of evacuation measures are still unclear and puzzling in view of the fact that sufficient warnings were given. The most pressing problem in the mitigation of volcanic and associated hazards on

  10. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M. [Los Alamos National Lab., Las Vegas, NV (United States); Picard, R.; Valentine, G. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Perry, F.V. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1992-03-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km{sup 2} area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10{sup {minus}8} to 10{sup {minus}10} yr{sup {minus}1 2}. The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site.

  11. California's Vulnerability to Volcanic Hazards: What's at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, M.; Wood, N. J.; Dinitz, L.

    2015-12-01

    California is a leader in comprehensive planning for devastating earthquakes, landslides, floods, and tsunamis. Far less attention, however, has focused on the potentially devastating impact of volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the State about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault Zone. At least 10 eruptions have occurred in the past 1,000 years—most recently in northern California (Lassen Peak 1914 to 1917)—and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable. The likelihood of renewed volcanism in California is about one in a few hundred to one in a few thousand annually. Eight young volcanoes, ranked as Moderate to Very High Threat [1] are dispersed throughout the State. Partially molten rock (magma) resides beneath at least seven of these—Medicine Lake Volcano, Mount Shasta, Lassen Volcanic Center, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, Long Valley Volcanic Region, Coso Volcanic Field, and Salton Buttes— causing earthquakes, toxic gas emissions, hydrothermal activity, and (or) ground deformation. Understanding the hazards and identifying what is at risk are the first steps in building community resilience to volcanic disasters. This study, prepared in collaboration with the State of California Governor's Office of Emergency Management and the California Geological Survey, provides a broad perspective on the State's exposure to volcano hazards by integrating mapped volcano hazard zones with geospatial data on at-risk populations, infrastructure, and resources. The study reveals that ~ 16 million acres fall within California's volcano hazard zones, along with ~ 190 thousand permanent and 22 million transitory populations. Additionally, far-field disruption to key water delivery systems, agriculture, utilities, and air traffic is likely. Further site- and sector-specific analyses will lead to improved hazard mitigation efforts and more effective disaster response and recovery. [1] "Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities

  12. Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: an outcome from MIAVITA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bignami, Christian; Bosi, Vittorio; Costantini, Licia; Cristiani, Chiara; Lavigne, Franck; Thierry, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    Volcanic eruptions are one of the most impressive, violent and dramatic agents of change on Earth, threatening hundreds of millions of people. The crises management implies a strong cooperation among the main stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities, scientific institutions, operational forces). Considering the great amount of different actions required during the whole volcanic cycle (e.g., preparedness, unrest phase, crisis management, resilience), the role and responsibilities of stakeholders should be clarified in advance. In particular, the role of scientists, fundamental in all the phases, should be well discussed with the other stakeholders and well defined, for every country. This will allow a better management and response, and contribute to avoid misunderstanding. The new "Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management" issued by the MIAVITA European project, funded by the European Commission (Mitigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) gives a contribution to that. Indeed, this handbook aims at synthesizing the acquired knowledge on volcanic risk management, such as prevention, preparedness, mitigation, intervention, crisis management and resilience, in a practical and useful way. It promotes the creation of an ideal bridge between different actors involved in risk management, improving and facilitating interactions among authorities and scientists. This work is based on current scientific research and the shared experience of the different MIAVITA project partners as well as on international good practices previously recommended. The handbook is composed of six sections. The first one briefly explains the global volcanic context and the principles of corresponding risk management. Section 2 contains a description of volcanic phenomena, damage and understanding size and effects that can be expected. Sections 3, 4 and 5 meet preparation and prevention issues and describe actions to be undertaken during the response phase

  13. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  14. Risk mitigation in spaceborne lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Yngve; Reinhold, Elmar; Wernham, Denny; Endemann, Martin; Jost, Michael; Armandillo, Errico; Riede, Wolfgang; Schröder, Helmut; Allenspacher, Paul

    2006-04-01

    Spaceborne lidars carry much promise for Earth observation and interplanetary missions to measure atmospheric parameters (wind velocity, optical extinction or species concentrations) and planet topologies. As the first European lidar mission, the European Space Agency is developing a Doppler wind lidar, ALADIN, to be launched on board ADM-Aeolus in 2008. ALADIN is a pulsed laser, emitting about 120 mJ of pulse energy in the UV. The mission duration is envisaged to be three years, which corresponds to several billion emitted pulses, thus imposing very stringent criteria on the longevity of the system. Laser-induced damage is one of the most significant issues here, in particular since laser-induced damage in space vacuum is still poorly understood. The European Space Agency has therefore established a test campaign to measure the power handling of all the instrument optics with laboratories in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France participating. Measurements are conducted at three wavelengths (1064nm, 532nm and 355nm) and with the introduction of several contaminants. The presentation covers laser-induced damage risk mitigation, the ESA test campaign and some test results.

  15. Mission design considerations for nuclear risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stancati, Mike; Collins, John

    1993-01-01

    Strategies for the mitigation of the nuclear risk associated with two specific mission operations are discussed. These operations are the safe return of nuclear thermal propulsion reactors to earth orbit and the disposal of lunar/Mars spacecraft reactors.

  16. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    precipitation, as well as magmatic activity and eruptions. (3) Risk of collapse begins with initial magmatic activity and increases as intrusion proceeds. An archetypal debris flow from volcanic terrain occurred in Colombia with a tectonic earthquake (M 6.4) in 1994. The Rio Piez conveyed a catastrophic wave of debris flow over 100 kilometers, coalesced from multiple slides of surflcial material weakened both by weathering and by hydrothermal alteration in a large strato- volcano. Similar seismogenic flows occurred in Mexico in 1920 (M -6.5), Chile in 1960 (M 9.2), and Ecuador in 1987 (M 6.1 and 6.9). Velocities of wave fronts in two examples were 60 to 90 km/hr (17-25 meters per second) over the initial 30 kilometers. Volcano flank and sector collapses may produce untransformed debris avalanches, as occurred initially at Mount St. Helens in 1980. However, at least as common is direct transformation of the failed mass to a debris flow. At two other volcanoes in the Cascade Range-- Mount Rainier and Mount Baker--rapid transformation and high mobility were typical of most of at least 15 Holocene flows. This danger exists downstream from many stratovolcanoes worldwide; the population at risk is near 150,000 and increasing at Mount Rainier. The first step in preventing future catastrophes is documenting past flows. Deposits of some debris flows, however, can be mistaken for those of less-mobile debris avalanches on the basis of mounds formed by buoyed megaclasts. Megaclasts may record only the proximal phase of a debris flow that began as a debris avalanche. Runout may have extended much farther, and thus furore flow mobility may be underestimated. Processes and behaviors of megaclast-bearing paleoflows are best inferred from the intermegaclast matrix. Mitigation strategy can respond to volcanic flows regardless of type and trigger by: (1) Avoidance: Limit settlement in flow pathways to numbers that can be evacuated after event warnings (flow is occurring). (2) Instrumental even

  17. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  18. Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

    2016-01-01

    Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

  19. Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.; Ricci, T.

    2008-05-01

    A volcanic risk perception study of the population residing near Vesuvius was carried out between May and July, 2006. A total of 3600 questionnaires with 45 items were distributed to students, their parents and the general population. The largest number of surveys (2812) were distributed in the 18 towns of the Red Zone, the area nearest to the volcano that is exposed to pyroclastic flow hazards and whose 550,000 residents, according to the civil protection emergency plan (in operation since 1995), should be evacuated in case of an eruption crisis. The remaining 788 questionnaires were distributed in 3 additional towns and 3 neighborhoods of Naples, all within the Yellow Zone, which is an area exposed to pyroclastic fallout hazards. A total of 2655 surveys were returned, resulting in a response rate of 73.7%. Results indicated that people have a realistic view of the risk: they think that an eruption is likely, that it will have serious consequences for their towns and for themselves and their families and they are quite worried about the threat. However, several other social, economic, and security-related issues were listed as a problem more often than Vesuvius. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of knowledge about the emergency plan, a lack of confidence in the plan's success and in public officials and low feelings of self-efficacy. People want to be more deeply involved in public discussions with scientists and civil protection officials on emergency planning and individual preparedness measures. It is clear from the results that a major education-information effort is still needed to improve the public's knowledge, confidence and self-efficacy, thereby improving their collective and individual capability to positively face a future volcanic emergency.

  20. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

  1. Earthquake and Volcanic Hazard Mitigation and Capacity Building in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, A.

    2012-04-01

    The East African Rift System (EARS) is a classic example of active continental rifting, and a natural laboratory setting to study initiation and early stage evolution of continental rifts. The EARS is at different stages of development that varies from relatively matured rift (16 mm/yr) in the Afar to a weakly extended Okavango Delta in the south with predicted opening velocity < 3 mm/yr. Recent studies in the region helped researchers to highlight the length and timescales of magmatism and faulting, the partitioning of strain between faulting and magmatism, and their implications for the development of along-axis segmentation. Although the human resource and instrument coverage is sparse in the continent, our understanding of rift processes and deep structure has improved in the last decade after the advent of space geodesy and broadband seismology. The recent major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mega dike intrusions that occurred along the EARS attracted several earth scientist teams across the globe. However, most African countries traversed by the rift do not have the full capacity to monitor and mitigate earthquake and volcanic hazards. Few monitoring facilities exist in some countries, and the data acquisition is rarely available in real-time for mitigation purpose. Many sub-Saharan Africa governments are currently focused on achieving the millennium development goals with massive infrastructure development scheme and urbanization while impending natural hazards of such nature are severely overlooked. Collaborations with overseas researchers and other joint efforts by the international community are opportunities to be used by African institutions to best utilize limited resources and to mitigate earthquake and volcano hazards.

  2. Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

    2008-05-01

    Understanding how people perceive risk has become increasingly important for improving risk communication and reducing risk associated conflicts. This paper builds upon findings, methodologies and lessons learned from other fields to help understand differences between scientists, authorities and the public. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyse underlying attitudes and judgements during an ongoing volcanic crisis on the Caribbean Island of Montserrat. Specific differences between the public, authorities and scientists were found to have been responsible for misunderstandings and misinterpretations of information and roles, resulting in differing perceptions of acceptable risk. Difficulties in the articulation and understanding of uncertainties pertaining to the volcanic risk led to a situation in which the roles of hazard monitoring, risk communication and public protection became confused. In addition, social, economic and political forces were found to have distorted risk messages, leading to a public reliance upon informal information networks. The implications of these findings for volcanic risk management and communication are discussed.

  3. Mitigating Systemic Risks in Future Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manzalini, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and associated functional controllers in a continuous and dynamic game of cooperation - competition. Methodology foresees defining and associating utility functions to these controllers and elaborating a global utility function (as a function of the controllers' utility functions) for the overall network. It is conjectured that the optimization of the global utility function ensures network stability and security evaluations. Paper concludes arguing that self-governance (with limited human intervention) is possible provided that proper local, global control rules are coded into these utility functions optimization processes.

  4. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  5. United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

    2017-07-25

    In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

  6. Industrial Risk Communication and Conflict Mitigation Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmelo Di Mauro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Lombardy is one of the most densely populated and industrialized regions in Europe, where nearly 280 Seveso sites are located. The issue of risk communication, as set by the European Seveso Directive is therefore of high relevance in this region. Nevertheless, the Lombardy Region Authorities consider that the implementation of the Directive’s provisions is too weak. Therefore, the Lombardy Region financed an exploratory research in November 2009 and all the research activities ended in February 2011. (Éupolis Lombardia 2011. The research was conducted in order to estimate the existing gaps in risk communication, the subsequent conflicts and to evaluate how to improve the participation of the population in the emergency preparedness activities. The main goal of the project was to improve the communication of risk to the population exposed to industrial risks, hence to mitigate the related social conflict on the basis of an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies industrial organizations and the population. The project was supported by a multidisciplinary research group, which investigated the following aspects:- the regional activities regarding the risk communication at local level;- the nature and status of the main stakeholders groups’ perception of the industrial risks and the existing conflicts, collected through interviews and groups’ discussions;- the analysis of the gaps and ways of improvement related to an effective strategy of communication between industry, population and emergency services. A forum involving all the institutional stakeholders was set to discuss this issue.The paper reports the main results of the research and illustrates the potential strategies to improve the risk communication and the population participation and preparedness for the Lombardy Region. The results showed that the level of risk perception of the population in Lombardy is still too low to define a program of communication

  7. Adaptation, mitigation and risk-taking in climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auerswald, Heike; Thum, Marcel [Technical Univ. Dresden (Germany). Faculty of Business and Economics; Konrad, Kai A. [Max-Planck-Insitute, Muenchen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    The future consequences of climate change are highly uncertain. Today, the exact size of possible future damages are widely unknown. Governments try to cope with these risks by investing in mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation aims at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions whereas adaptation reduces the follow-up costs of climate change. In contrast to the existing literature, we explicitly model the decision of risk-averse governments on mitigation and adaptation policies. Furthermore we also consider the interaction of the two strategies. Mitigation efforts of a single country trigger crowding out as other countries will reduce their mitigation efforts. We show that, under fairly mild conditions, a unilateral increase in mitigation efforts of a single country can even increase global emissions. In contrast, a unilateral commitment to large adaptation efforts benefits the single country and may reduce the global risk from climate change at the expense of other countries. (orig.)

  8. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  9. Aerosols Monitoring Network to Create a Volcanic ASH Risk Management System in Argentina and Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quel Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two main decisions were made in Argentina to mitigate the impact of the recent volcanic activity in de country basically affected by the presence of volcanic ash in the air and deposited over the Argentinean territory. The first one was to create a risk management commission were this risk between others were studied, and second to develop new ground based remote sensing technologies to be able to identify and inform the risk close to the airports. In addition the Japanese government program for Science and Technology joint Research Partnership between Argentina, Chile and Japan for Sustainable Development (SATREPS accepted to fund this cooperation due to the potential future utilization of the research outcomes to the benefit of the society. This work present the actual achievements and expected advance of these projects that try to joint efforts between national and international agencies as well as countries on behalf of a better understanding of the risks and a joint collaboration on the mitigation of suspended ashes impact over the aerial navigation.

  10. Aerosols Monitoring Network to Create a Volcanic ASH Risk Management System in Argentina and Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quel, Eduardo; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Otero, Lidia; Jin, Yoshitaka; Ristori, Pablo; Nishizawa, Tomoaki; González, Francisco; Papandrea, Sebastián; Shimizu, Atsushi; Mizuno, Akira

    2016-06-01

    Two main decisions were made in Argentina to mitigate the impact of the recent volcanic activity in de country basically affected by the presence of volcanic ash in the air and deposited over the Argentinean territory. The first one was to create a risk management commission were this risk between others were studied, and second to develop new ground based remote sensing technologies to be able to identify and inform the risk close to the airports. In addition the Japanese government program for Science and Technology joint Research Partnership between Argentina, Chile and Japan for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) accepted to fund this cooperation due to the potential future utilization of the research outcomes to the benefit of the society. This work present the actual achievements and expected advance of these projects that try to joint efforts between national and international agencies as well as countries on behalf of a better understanding of the risks and a joint collaboration on the mitigation of suspended ashes impact over the aerial navigation.

  11. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  12. Phishing Techniques and Mitigating the Associated Security Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc A. Rader

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Organizations invest heavily in technicalcontrols for their Information Assurance (IA infrastructure.These technical controls mitigate and reduce the risk of damage caused by outsider attacks. Mostorganizations rely on training to mitigate and reduce risk of non-technical attacks such as socialengineering. Organizations lump IA training into small modules that personnel typically rush throughbecause the training programs lack enough depth and creativity to keep a trainee engaged. The key toretaining knowledge is making the information memorable. This paper describes common and emergingattack vectors and how to lower and mitigate the associated risks.

  13. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  14. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Kälin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  15. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  16. Volcanic risk: the responsibility of science in communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccione, Caterina

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the places where we live comes both from the experience handed down from one generation to the other and from scientific knowledge. In some cases, natural risks are "invisible", such as earthquakes, in some other cases, natural risks are seemingly "invisible", such as a wall in danger of collapse or a valley in a flood zone. And besides all this, there is volcanic risk, where the power of the forces of nature appears in all its beauty and majesty. The possibility to see volcanoes, to perceive their changes, to observe them closely and the need to live with them, makes it very important for the population living in these areas to have an adequate knowledge of the risk, a knowledge that should be based on scientific research. In Italy the experience of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in the Vesuvio area, in the Aeolian Islands and around Etna shows how vital it is to make people aware of volcanic risk. Thanks to the support of the scientific community, the population can develop the best possible coexistence with volcanoes and with the risk they represent. These are extreme situations, but they are the starting point for educational and informative activities continuing to evolve and upgrade in parallel to the availability of new technologies and media and the progress of research that INGV has been conducting for years through specific projects. The scientific community and individual researchers have the ethical duty to share with the community the knowledge on risk, a responsibility that becomes especially important in those areas affected by volcanic risk. It is from this educational action that depends on the awareness of the populations with regard to the risk they are exposed to, that results in a responsible behavior in case of emergency, and that becomes the main variable for the safety of communities coexisting with active volcanoes.

  17. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  18. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

  19. Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

    2013-03-01

    The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

  20. Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

  1. Willingness of Homeowners to Mitigate Climate Risk through Insurance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. [Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. [Institute of Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in certain regions due to an increase in both precipitation and sea level rise. In addition, socio-economic scenarios project an increase in urbanization in flood prone areas, which results in a higher damage potential. The combined effect of climate and land use change on flood risks requires innovative adaptation policies to cope with rising risks. Increasingly, attention is paid to the role insurance can play in mitigating damage by providing incentives to policyholders to undertake damage reducing measures. The willingness of homeowners in the Netherlands to undertake measures that mitigate flood damage in exchange for benefits on hypothetical flood insurance policies is examined using surveys. The results indicate that many homeowners are willing to undertake investments in mitigation. In particular, approximately two-thirds are willing to invest in water barriers in exchange for a premium reduction and about a fifth are willing to replace floor types that are vulnerable to flooding with water resistant floor types. Furthermore, about a quarter is willing to move central heating installations to floors safe against flooding in favor of a reduction in the insurance premium. Estimates of the effectiveness of these mitigation measures to limit potential flood damage in the river delta indicate that prevented damage could be substantial, namely in the order of 1 billion euro or larger. Reductions in (absolute) flood risk due to mitigation are especially large under climate change. A probit model indicates that responsibilities for compensating flood damage, risk perceptions, and geographical characteristics are important determinants in the decision to undertake mitigation.

  2. Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H. [Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. [ICREA, Department of Economics and Economic History, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change is projected to increase flood risks in certain regions due to an increase in both precipitation and sea level rise. In addition, socio-economic scenarios project an increase in urbanization in flood prone areas, which results in a higher damage potential. The combined effect of climate and land use change on flood risks requires innovative adaptation policies to cope with rising risks. Increasingly, attention is paid to the role insurance can play in mitigating damage by providing incentives to policyholders to undertake damage reducing measures. The willingness of homeowners in the Netherlands to undertake measures that mitigate flood damage in exchange for benefits on hypothetical flood insurance policies is examined using surveys. The results indicate that many homeowners are willing to make investments in mitigation. In particular, approximately two-thirds are willing to invest in water barriers in exchange for a premium reduction and about a fifth are willing to replace floor types that are vulnerable to flooding with water resistant floor types. Furthermore, about a quarter are willing to move central heating installations to floors safe against flooding in favor of a reduction in the insurance premium. Estimates of the effectiveness of these mitigation measures to limit potential flood damage in the river delta indicate that prevented damage could be substantial, namely in the order of 1 billion euro or larger. Reductions in (absolute) flood risk due to mitigation are especially large under climate change. A probit model indicates that existing arrangements for compensating flood damage, risk awareness and perceptions, and geographical characteristics are important determinants in the decision to undertake mitigation. (author)

  3. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  4. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  5. MITIGATING INNOVATION RISKS CONCERNING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY INSTRUMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available As protection of innovation is possible using a variety of intellectual property instruments, the current paper aims at emphasizing the vulnerabilities of these instruments in order to facilitate the right choice in terms of protection, exploitation and dissemination of innovation. Based on a review of the intellectual property instruments and their related risk factors, the study identifies and formulates specific proactive strategies which arise from the fact that an instrument alone does not allow for effective protection, exploitation and dissemination and oftentimes the owners of innovation should combine traditional and alternative instruments. Therefore, the results of this analysis represent a helpful tool for managers in the decisional process.

  6. A New Technique for Mitigating Risk on US College Campuses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Stephanie; White, Rebecca J.; Hertz, Giles

    2008-01-01

    High-profile criminal acts continue to plague United States (US) college campuses despite recent efforts to implement more aggressive risk mitigation practices, such as criminal background checks. Despite these efforts, incidents such as the most recent shootings at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University continue to demonstrate that,…

  7. Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde, through a participatory approach: which out coming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

    2013-11-01

    This research paper presents the outcomes of the Work Package 5 (Socio-economical Vulnerability Assessment and Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction) of the MIAVITA Research Program (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) conducted in Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 yr (May 2010-January 2012) of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km-wide caldera of the volcano inside the Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the program included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people at volcanic threats is linked with daily access to sources of livelihood specially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk on their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such objective, a Participatory 3-Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participative aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties to involve more marginalized people

  8. Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde, through a participatory approach: which outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

    2014-09-01

    This research paper presents the outcomes of Work Package 5 (socio-economical vulnerability assessment and community-based disaster risk reduction) of the MIAVITA (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) research programme conducted on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 years (May 2010 to January 2012), of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km wide caldera of the volcano inside Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the programme included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people to volcanic threats is linked to daily access to sources of livelihood, especially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk to their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such an objective, a participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participatory aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability of (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties in involving more

  9. Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde, through a participatory approach: which out coming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Texier-Teixeira

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This research paper presents the outcomes of the Work Package 5 (Socio-economical Vulnerability Assessment and Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction of the MIAVITA Research Program (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities conducted in Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 yr (May 2010–January 2012 of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km-wide caldera of the volcano inside the Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the program included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people at volcanic threats is linked with daily access to sources of livelihood specially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk on their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such objective, a Participatory 3-Dimensional Mapping (P3DM activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1 the non-participative aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability (2 deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties to involve more

  10. Personality, risk cognitions and motivation related to demand of risk mitigation in transport among Norwegians

    OpenAIRE

    Nordfjærn, Trond; Rundmo, Torbjørn

    2014-01-01

    There is insufficient knowledge regarding the role of personality traits, transport-related risk cognitions and safety motivation for demand for transport risk mitigation. The aim of this study is to test a model aimed to predict public demand for transport risk mitigation by these psychological risk constructs. A mailed self-completion questionnaire survey was conducted in a random sample of the Norwegian population aged 18–65 years obtained from the Norwegian population registry (n...

  11. Transfusion-related acute lung injury risk mitigation: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otrock, Z K; Liu, C; Grossman, B J

    2017-09-25

    Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a life-threatening complication of transfusion. Greater understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome has much improved during the last two decades. Plasma-containing components from female donors with leucocyte antibodies were responsible for the majority of TRALI fatalities before mitigation strategies were implemented. Over the past 15 years, measures to mitigate risk for TRALI have been implemented worldwide and they continued to evolve with time. The AABB requires that all plasma containing components and whole blood for transfusion must be collected from men, women who have not been pregnant, or women who have tested negative for human leucocyte antigen antibodies. Although the incidence of TRALI has decreased following the institution of TRALI mitigation strategies, TRALI is still the most common cause of transfusion-associated death in the United States. In this review, we focus on TRALI risk mitigation strategies. We describe the measures taken by blood collection facilities to reduce the risk of TRALI in the United States, Canada and European countries. We also review the literature for the effectiveness of these measures. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  12. Social risk mitigation project: to mitigate proverty or to protect rich from poor?

    OpenAIRE

    ÇULHA ZABCI, Filiz

    2003-01-01

    Social Risk Mitigation Project, which was put into effect in Turkey alter the February 2001economic crisis is analyzed in this paper. This project was introduced in the aftermath of the crisis in a widespread poverty and unemployment environment and it is in accordance with the poverty a1leviationprogram which is developed in the World Bank\\\\'s 2000/2001 World Development Report. It is quite interesting that there was a prevalent discussion on the risk of a \\\\"socialturmiol\\\\" in Turkey just ...

  13. How to associate with volcanoes. Mitigation of volcanic hazards; Kazan tono tsukiaikata. Kazan saigai wo doyatte herasuka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawabe, Y. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1997-08-01

    This paper describes how to deal with volcanic hazards. Basaltic lave such as in the Kilauea volcano flows quickly, while andesite lava such as in Mt. Asama and Mt. Sakurajima in Japan flows slowly. The pyroclastic flow in the Unzen area was a flow of high-temperature lava, pumice stones and gas driven to a high speed by gravity. The flow is so dangerous as it flows so quickly as allowing no time to escape from. Pyroclastic fall-outs and volcanic gases also give damages of different forms. Mountain collapse and debris avalanche in which a volcanic mountain collapses by eruption and earthquake acting as a trigger can also cause a large disaster. A debris flow may also do the same. Knowing the history of volcanic activities by making geological surveys may help judge what type of eruptive activities is prone to occur. On the other hand, the current conditions must be kept observed by performing seismic observations. Eruption itself, a large-scale lava flow and a pyroclastic flow cannot be prevented by using any hardware technique. Software measures are important to utilize more adequately areas and soil natures with high risks. The National Land Agency has prepared recently a guideline for making hazard prediction maps. It is important that both the administration and general residents utilize this guideline. 11 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. Earthquake risk mitigation projects in central asia and india

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausler, E.; Petal, M.; Tobin, T.; Tucker, B.; Gupta, M.; Sharma, A.; Shaw, R.

    2003-04-01

    In the fall of 2002, GeoHazards International (GHI), a California-based nonprofit organization, launched two 3-year projects, each funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, to improve the earthquake risk management of 23 cities in Central Asia and India. The objectives of these projects are to: * Assess the earthquake risk of each city, * Identify the most effective risk mitigation options for each city, * Raise awareness of that risk and those mitigation options, and * Initiate mitigation activities in some of these cities. A critical characteristic of these projects is that leaders of each local community will be deeply involved in realizing all four objectives. GHI will work with, in addition to local authorities, national government, academic and non-governmental organizations. In India, GHI’s partners are the Disaster Management Planning Hyogo Office, United Nations Centre for Regional Development (UNCRD) of Kobe, Japan, and the Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society (SEEDS), of Delhi, India. In India, we will work in 20 cities that were chosen, in a February 1, 2002 workshop (sponsored by Munich Reinsurance Company) in Delhi; the cities were selected by Indian earthquake professionals on the basis of the cities’ population, hazard, and economic, cultural and political significance. In Central Asia, we will focus on Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Dushanbe, Tadzhikistan; and Almaty, Kazakstan. GHI and its partners are looking for other organizations that would like to collaborate on these projects.

  15. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José I. Barredo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly, it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does the risk. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment of spatial trends provide planners with powerful tools for territorial decision making. However, until recently this type of model has been largely neglected in strategic planning for flood risk mitigation. Thus, ex-ante assessment of flood risk is an innovative application of land use change models. The aim of this paper is to propose a flood risk mitigation approach using exposure scenarios. The methodology is applied in the Pordenone province in northern Italy. In the past 50 years Pordenone has suffered several heavy floods, the disastrous consequences of which demonstrated the vulnerability of the area. Results of this study confirm that the main driving force of increased flood risk is found in new urban developments in flood-prone areas.

  16. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency...... perspective. Design/methodology/approach: An exploratory case study of a truck manufacturer and its supply network is conducted over a two year period. Data consists predominantly of semi-structured interviews, observations and workshops with the case organisation. Findings: The findings of the study indicate...... that behavior-based controls, combined with information, are a key contributory factor in mitigating risk within triadic network structures. Research limitations/implications: This research is limited to one in-depth case study, within the truck industry. Whilst this represents an appropriate approach given...

  17. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  18. Can Marriage Education Mitigate the Risks Associated with Premarital Cohabitation?

    OpenAIRE

    Rhoades, Galena K.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.; Allen, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., “pre-commitment cohabitation”) for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between pre-commitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before ...

  19. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Temitope Egbelakin; Suzanne Wilkinson; Jason Ingham

    2015-01-01

    The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behavi...

  20. Strategic Material Shortfall Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    contracts, could be added to the existing mix . Market 40 responses to supply and demand shocks could be modeled more explicitly as could...Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 4850...Risk Mitigation Optimization Model (OPTIM-SM) James S. Thomason, Project Leader D. Sean Barnett James P. Bell Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz iii

  1. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  2. The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

    2017-07-01

    Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

  3. Mitigating the Risk of Transfusion-Transmitted Dengue in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Rooks

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Dengue viruses (DENV 1–4 are a risk to transfusion safety, with several transfusion-transmitted (TT cases reported globally. DENV 1–4 are endemic in over 100 countries, with seasonal outbreaks occurring in northeastern Australia. To mitigate TT-DENV risk in Australia, fresh blood components are not manufactured from donors returning from any area (domestic/overseas with known dengue transmission. Alternatively, TT-DENV risk may be mitigated using an appropriate blood donor screening assay. We aimed to determine the rate of dengue infection in donors during dengue outbreaks in Australia. Plasma samples were collected from blood donors during local dengue outbreaks. All samples were tested for the presence of DENV RNA and selected samples were tested for DENV antigen (nonstructural protein 1, NS1 with two assays. No donors residing in high risk areas had detectable levels of DENV RNA or NS1 and no cases of DENV viremia were detected in blood donors residing in areas of Australia experiencing DENV outbreaks. Definitive conclusions could not be drawn from this study; however, the lack of detection of DENV RNA or antigen in donations suggests that the current risk of TT-DENV is low and maintaining the fresh component restriction for “at-risk” donors is appropriate.

  4. Toward an Integrated Solution to Mitigate the Impact of Volcanic Ash to Aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, John J.; Dezitter, Fabien; Fairlie, T. Duncan; Krotkov, Nickolay; Lekki, John; Lindsay, Francis; Pavolonis, Mike; Pieri, David; Prata, Fred; Vernier, Jean-Paul

    2015-01-01

    The science community is making a concerted effort to improve the reliability of dispersion models for the forecasting of volcanic ash plumes. Toward this end, it has been observed that the assimilation of diverse, accurate and frequent surface, airborne and satellite observations of the source and distal ash plumes may hold the key. Various international research organizations and operational agencies make these observations using a variety of active and passive remote sensing systems and use them to initialize atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models. These observation systems range from surface LIDAR and ceilometers, to airborne radiometers and nephelometers, to satellite radiometers, multi-spectral imagers, LIDAR and UV-photometers. None of these systems alone is a panacea, however, their synergistic application holds great promise toward solving this complex problem. Additionally, the aeronautical and science communities are working to better understand the quantitative thresholds and tolerances of aviation systems to volcanic ash to better inform scientists of the accuracy requirements for dispersion model forecasts. A number of the most recent and promising efforts in all of these area are discussed in this presentation.

  5. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra

    2015-08-15

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  7. People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: vulnerability and risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jóhannesdóttir

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Residents in the village of Vík and in the farming community of Álftaver in southern Iceland are living with the threat of volcanic hazards. The highly active subglacial volcano Katla has erupted approximately twice per century since the beginning of settlement around 874 AD. The last major eruption was in 1918 and Katla has recently entered an agitated stage. The purpose of this research was to (1 review residents' responses in relation to vulnerability, (2 examine their risk perception, preparedness and mitigation in relation to an eruption of Katla, and (3 investigate the public and the representative of the local authorities and emergency manager's knowledge of the official evacuation plan. In 2004, we conducted in-depth, face-to-face interviews with local residents using a snowball sample technique. All participants were permanent residents of the two communities, between the ages of 25–95 and most had lived in the area their entire lives. Regardless of the residents' knowledge about past volcanic activity of Katla and the associated future risk, many residents were doubtful about the imminent eruption forecast by scientists and they believed that the volcano is no longer active. In both communities, different social, cultural and economic factors played a central role in how people perceived natural hazards and how they dealt with the fact that their lives and livelihoods could be at risk. The participants had good knowledge about the existing evacuation plan and had participated in evacuation exercises. However, they had not made personal mitigation or preparedness plans in the event of a future eruption. In contrast to the residents of Vík, the inhabitants in Álftaver are concerned about the evacuation process and found it very confusing; they neither found the emergency plan nor the proposed methods for risk communication relevant for their farming community. The perception of the inhabitants, especially in Álftaver, does not

  8. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    Open marine net pens facilitate virus and sea lice transfer, occasionally leading to infections and outbreaks of disease in farmed salmon. A review of 3 salmon pathogens (infectious salmon anaemia virus [ISAV], salmon alphavirus [SAV] and the salmon louse Lepeophtheirus salmonis) shows...... that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

  9. Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiorucci

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.

  10. Update of the volcanic risk map of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nuñez Cornu, F. J.; Marquez-Azua, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Colima volcano, located in western Mexico (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W) began its current eruptive process in February 10, 1999. This event was the basis for the development of two volcanic hazard maps: one for ballistics (rock fall) lahars, and another one for ash fall. During the period of 2003 to 2008 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-Plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano thanks to the low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time The current volcanic activity has triggered ballistic projections, pyroclastic and ash flows, and lahars, all have exceeded the maps limits established in 1999. Vulnerable elements within these areas have gradually changed due to the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano. On the slopes of the northwest side, new blue agave Tequilana weber and avocado orchard crops have emerged along with important production of greenhouse tomato, alfalfa and fruit (citrus) crops that will eventually be processed and dried for exportation to the United States and Europe. Also, in addition to the above, large expanses of corn and sugar cane have been planted on the slopes of the volcano since the nineteenth century. The increased agricultural activity has had a direct impact in the reduction of the available forest land area. Coinciding with this increased activity, the 0.8% growth population during the period of 2000 - 2005, - due to the construction of the Guadalajara-Colima highway-, also increased this impact. The growth in vulnerability changed the level of risk with respect to the one identified in the year 1999 (Suarez, 2000), thus motivating us to perform an update to the risk map at 1:25,000 using vector models of the INEGI, SPOT images of different dates, and fieldwork done in order

  11. Volcanic hazard and risk assessment in a multi-source volcanic area: the example of Napoli city (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Alberico

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The possible emplacement of pyroclastic fall and flow products from Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio represents a threat for the population living in Napoli city. For this area, the volcanic hazard was always partially investigated to define the hazard related to the Campi Flegrei or to the Somma-Vesuvio activity one at a time. A new volcanic hazard and risk assessment, at the municipality scale, as a vital tool for decision-making about territorial management and future planning, is presented here.

    In order to assess the hazard related to the explosive activity of both sources, we integrated the results of field studies and numerical simulations, to evaluate the future possibility for Napoli to be hit by the products of an explosive eruption. This is defined for the Somma Vesuvio central volcano through the sum of "field frequency" based on the thickness and distribution of past deposits (Lirer et al., 2001, and for the Campi Flegrei volcanic field by suitably processing simulated events based on numerical modelling (Alberico et al., 2002; Costa et al., 2009. Aiming at volcanic risk assessment, the hazard areas were joined with the exposure map, considered for our purposes as the economical value of artefacts exposed to hazard. We defined four risk classes, and argued that the medium and low-very low risk classes have the largest extent in Napoli municipality, whereas only few zones located in the eastern part of the city and in the westernmost coastal area show a high risk, owing to the correspondence of high economical value and high hazard.

  12. Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

  13. Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandimarte, Luigia; Brath, Armando; Castellarin, Attilio; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di

    It is sadly known that over the past decades Isla Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) has been exposed to the devastating passage of several hurricanes and tropical storms. Territories that are economically weak and extremely poor in terms of natural resources have been shaken by severe flood events that caused the loss of thousands of human lives, displacement of people and damage to the environment. On May 24th 2004, the flooding of the trans-boundary river Soliette killed over 1000 Haitian and Dominican people, wiping out villages and leaving behind desolation and poverty. After this catastrophic flood event, the General Direction for Development and Cooperation of the Italian Department of Foreign Affairs funded through the Istituto Italo-Latino Americano (IILA, www.iila.org) an international cooperation initiative (ICI), coordinated and directed by the University of Bologna. The ICI involved Haitian and Dominican institutions and was twofold: (a) institutional capacity building on flood risk management and mitigation measures and policies; (b) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the May 2004 flood event aimed at formulating a suitable and affordable flood risk mitigation plan, consisting of structural and non-structural measures.

  14. Seismic and volcanic risk studies - western Gulf of Alaska

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The objectives of this research are to evaluate geologic hazards to offshore petroleum development due to earthquake and volcanic activity in the lower Cook Inlet,...

  15. Global Warming. Risk Perception and Risk-Mitigating Behavior in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohe, M.; Ikeda, S. [School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University (Japan)

    2005-10-15

    Global warming is a major concern for the Japanese public. However, because the influence of global environmental risks, particularly global warming, is long-term and widespread, it seems difficult for the public to recognize it as a familiar and important problem that necessitates firm action. This study attempts to determine the causal structure promoting risk-mitigating behavior with regard to global warming, using Covariance Structure Analysis (CSA) with data from a survey of a subset of the Japanese population. There are four main stages in the process of decision-making for personal actions; concerns and values, risk perception, mitigating behavior intention, and personal actions. Support for environmental policies has three stages: concerns and values, risk perceptions, and mitigating behavior intentions. Our results suggest that improved access to information concerning the risks associated with global warming in particular, and environmental issues in general, will be sufficient to effectively accelerate the public's participation in policy decisions, by translating their intentions for risk-mitigating into practical actions. Increased knowledge through improved access to information should improve the interaction between the public and environmental policy-makers in Japan.

  16. QUALITY BASED CREDIT RISK MITIGATION FOR BANK PERFORMANCE ENHANCEMENT: EMPIRIC STUDY IN AN INDONESIAN BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nini Avieni

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing controversy over whether risk mitigation inherently enhances business performance. The aim of this paper is to settle the controversy, and provide insights roles of risk mitigation on corporate strategy. Author examined implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system at one of Indonesia banks.  Based on responses from 112 credit analysts and database of business units performance indicators, this research showed a relationship between the implication of Lean Six Sigma at credit risk mitigation system and unit bank's performance. Quality Based Credit Risk Mitigation which is credit risk mitigation using Lean Six Sigma system will enhance business units’ performance through improvement in credit quality and credit process efficiency.

  17. Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

  18. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  19. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  20. Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

    2003-05-01

    Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

  1. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  2. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  3. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  4. Potential of lactic acid bacteria in aflatoxin risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlberg, Sara H; Joutsjoki, Vesa; Korhonen, Hannu J

    2015-08-17

    Aflatoxins (AF) are ubiquitous mycotoxins contaminating food and feed. Consumption of contaminated food and feed can cause a severe health risk to humans and animals. A novel biological method could reduce the health risks of aflatoxins through inhibiting mold growth and binding aflatoxins. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are commonly used in fermented food production. LAB are known to inhibit mold growth and, to some extent, to bind aflatoxins in different matrices. Reduced mold growth and aflatoxin production may be caused by competition for nutrients between bacterial cells and fungi. Most likely, binding of aflatoxins depends on environmental conditions and is strain-specific. Killed bacteria cells possess consistently better binding abilities for aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) than viable cells. Lactobacilli especially are relatively well studied and provide noticeable possibilities in binding of aflatoxin B1 and M1 in food. It seems that binding is reversible and that bound aflatoxins are released later on (Haskard et al., 2001; Peltonen et al., 2001). This literature review suggests that novel biological methods, such as lactic acid bacteria, show potential in mitigating toxic effects of aflatoxins in food and feed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  6. Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaillard, Jean-Christophe

    2008-05-01

    The literature on people's response to volcanic hazards tends to be split between two paradigms. The first argues that the choice of adjustment depends on how people perceive rare and extreme volcanic phenomena and the associated risk. The second considers that people's behavior in the face of natural hazards is constrained by social, economic and political forces beyond their control. The present paper addresses both paradigms and demonstrates that, in order to understand people's behavior in the face of volcanic threats, volcanic risk perception has to be balanced with non-hazard related factors and structural constraints. These conclusions are based on a case study of Mt. Pinatubo and the lingering threat of lahars from the 1991 eruption. Drawing on the results of a questionnaire-based survey and additional interviews with key informants, it is shown that a high perception of risk does not stop people from choosing to forms of living that put them at high threat from lahars. Furthermore, the paper argues that insufficient opportunity for making a livelihood in resettlement centers and strong attachment to native villages push people back to the banks of lahar channels. Everyday hazards of poverty and the threat to cultural heritage weighed heavier than this seasonal natural hazard. In other words, in a context of economic and social hardship, risk perception of volcanic hazards is necessarily balanced with other risk perceptions. This study does not argue that risk perception is unimportant for understanding people's adjustment to volcanic environments but rather stresses the need for placing it in its larger and daily contexts which are independent of volcanic hazards.

  7. The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Wilkinson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

  8. Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

  9. Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

    2016-04-01

    "Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

  10. Conception of a method for the creation of volcanic risk index maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bion, P.; Van Wyk de Vries, B.; Valentine, G.

    2012-04-01

    Risk index maps are a variant of risk maps, having the advantage of containing unique kinds of information - levels of risk spatially represented - and can therefore be a more effective communication tool than traditional risk maps. Nevertheless, despite their apparent simplicity, their achievement is the result of a complex risk analysis, requiring the consideration of multidisciplinary indicators, expressing different parameters of the physical and human dimensions of the environment and their interactions. The risk index is obtained in three main stages: the definition of hazard and vulnerability indicators, the transformation of the indicators into subindices through mathematical processes (formulation, standardization, weighting), and the combination of the subindices into a final index. As of now, only few attempts of risk quantification have been done, related to landslide, flood or seismic hazards, and those linked to volcanic hazards are very incomplete because of the specificities and complexities of these kinds of events and their effects. Volcanic hazards have the particularity of being of different types, moreover all events can combine together or be combined with other external events (e.g. meteorological), and they can reach and therefore affect extensive areas by different phenomena. The methodology developed here assesses risk levels in regions potentially impacted by volcanic hazards. It incorporates volcanic hazard specificities and nuances of "vulnerability" by integrating the diversity of the environmental components. It analyses the natural and human strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which are located within the areas potentially "at risk". Consequently, it considers negative but also positive indicators (respectively aggravating and improving the potential consequences), which can be internal but also external to the volcanic hazards. The approach also considers a temporal variability of the events and their direct or

  11. Can marriage education mitigate the risks associated with premarital cohabitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J; Allen, Elizabeth S

    2015-06-01

    This study tested whether relationship education (i.e., the Prevention and Relationship Education Program; PREP) can mitigate the risk of having cohabited before making a mutual commitment to marry (i.e., "precommitment cohabitation") for marital distress and divorce. Using data from a study of PREP for married couples in the U.S. Army (N = 662 couples), we found that there was a significant association between precommitment cohabitation and lower marital satisfaction and dedication before random assignment to intervention. After intervention, this precommitment cohabitation effect was only apparent in the control group. Specifically, significant interactions between intervention condition and cohabitation history indicated that for the control group, but not the PREP group, precommitment cohabitation was associated with lower dedication as well as declines in marital satisfaction and increases in negative communication over time. Furthermore, those with precommitment cohabitation were more likely to divorce by the 2-year follow-up only in the control group; there were no differences in divorce based on premarital cohabitation history in the PREP group. These findings are discussed in light of current research on cohabitation and relationship education; potential implications are also considered.

  12. Risk Mitigation Testing with the BepiColombo MPO SADA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemann, J.; Heinrich, B.; Skulicz, A.; Madsen, M.; Weisenstein, W.; Modugno, F.; Althaus, F.; Panhofer, T.; Osterseher, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Solar Array (SA) Drive Assembly (SADA) for the BepiColombo mission is being developed and qualified at RUAG Space Zürich (RSSZ). The system is consisting of the Solar Array Drive Mechanism (SADM) and the Solar Array Drive Electronics (SADE) which is subcontracted to RUAG Space Austria (RSA).This paper deals with the risk mitigation activities and the lesson learnt from this development. In specific following topics substantiated by bread board (BB) test results will be addressed in detail:Slipring Bread Board Test: Verification of lifetime and electrical performance of carbon brush technology Potentiometer BB Tests: Focus on lifetime verification (> 650000 revolution) and accuracy requirement SADM EM BB Test: Subcomponent (front-bearing and gearbox) characterization; complete test campaign equivalent to QM test.EM SADM/ SADE Combined Test: Verification of combined performance (accuracy, torque margin) and micro-vibration testing of SADA systemSADE Bread Board Test: Parameter optimization; Test campaign equivalent to QM testThe main improvements identified in frame of BB testing and already implemented in the SADM EM/QM and SADE EQM are:• Improved preload device for gearbox• Improved motor ball-bearing assembly• Position sensor improvements• Calibration process for potentiometer• SADE motor controller optimization toachieve required running smoothness• Overall improvement of test equipment.

  13. New strategies for volcanic hazard and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Biasse, Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most intense and majestic display of natu- re’s power that can dramatically impact the Earth system and our modern societies. The recent 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull demonstrated how eruptions of moderate size can impact modern globalised societies. Most of the European airspace was closed for a week and the air traffic over the North Atlantic was interrupted. 313 airports were closed, 104,000 flights cancelled, 10 million passengers stranded, causing a...

  14. Mount Rainier: learning to live with volcanic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driedger, C.L.; Scott, K.M.

    2002-01-01

    Mount Rainier in Washington state is an active volcano reaching more than 2.7 miles (14,410 feet) above sea level. Its majestic edifice looms over expanding suburbs in the valleys that lead to nearby Puget Sound. USGS research over the last several decades indicates that Mount Rainier has been the source of many volcanic mudflows (lahars) that buried areas now densely populated. Now the USGS is working cooperatively with local communities to help people live more safely with the volcano.

  15. Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.; Alberico, I.

    2010-05-01

    In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.

  16. Global Volcano Model: progress towards an international co-ordinated network for volcanic hazard and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin, Susan

    2013-04-01

    GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. GVM is a network that aims to co-ordinate and integrate the efforts of the international volcanology community. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM. Activities currently include: design and development of databases of volcano data, volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards; establishment of methodologies for analysis of the data (e.g. hazard and exposure indices) to inform risk assessment; development of complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM acts through establishing task forces to deliver explicit deliverables in finite periods of time. GVM has a task force to deliver a global assessment of volcanic risk for UN ISDR, a task force for indices, and a task force for volcano deformation from satellite observations. GVM is organising a Volcano Best Practices workshop in 2013. A recent product of GVM is a global database on large magnitude explosive eruptions. There is ongoing work to develop databases on debris avalanches, lava dome hazards and ash hazard. GVM aims to develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

  17. Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

    2008-01-01

    More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

  18. Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

  19. Government audits in practice: how to mitigate RAC risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocato, Lori

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the current movement by Recovery Audit Contractors to target physician practices and recommends a variety of steps providers should take to mitigate the expense and staff inconvenience of audits.

  20. Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population are aware about the governmental commitment to assume a strategic planning for mitigation, facing a volcanic emergency. Recently, university undergraduate students from Chile and Argentina are networking to acquire the skills needed for a better preparedness to the next volcanic eruption.

  1. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a speci......This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices...... in higher risks, which can lead to significant cost-overruns and large delays in schedule [Oehmen et al. 2012, Cantarelli et al. 2010, Flyvbjerg et al. 2003, GAO 2006]. Program success depends on four dimensions: delivery capability, organizational capability, marketing capability and innovative capability...

  2. CFD analysis of dense gas dispersion in indoor environment for risk assessment and risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, M; Jayanti, S; Swaminathan, T

    2012-03-30

    Environmental risks are inherent in the operation of any complex chemical process industry. The indoor release of hazardous chemicals that are denser than air is a topic of special concern, since dense clouds tend to persist at ground level or human breath level which leads to a magnification of their harmful potential. In the present work, we propose a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based model for indoor risk assessment considering accidental release of a sustained, small, undetected leak of a dense toxic gas (chlorine) in an industrial indoor environment. Results from simulations show that the denser chlorine gas spreads like a liquid and flows all along the floor. At the same time, its concentration at a point away from the ground level increases slowly, thus showing that both stratification and dilution effects are present as the dense gas spreads. The implications of this spreading pattern from a risk assessment and risk mitigation point of view are discussed.

  3. Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. ... the Niger Delta, there is need for establishment of coastal management zone authority, land-use ... building codes, flood forecasting and warning systems, flood insurance and ...

  4. Risk mitigation by public utility commissions: New tools for an old role

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wirick, D.W.

    1997-11-01

    Risk mitigation by public utility commissions is discussed in the context of the regulatory environment. Traditional utility regulation is presented as a mechanism for risk reduction, with deregulation interpreted as a willingness of utilities and consumers to assume more risk. A detailed analysis of systematic and unsystematic risk in competitive utility markets is presented, and risk reduction techniques are described in depth. The paper concludes with several recommendations for regulation to help manage the higher risk resulting from deregulation.

  5. Volcanic Risk Perception in Five Communities Located near the Chichón Volcano, Northern Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, F.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2010-12-01

    The Chichón volcano (17° 19’ N and 93° 15’ W) is located in the state of Chiapas, Mexico. This volcano is classified by UNESCO as one of the ten most dangerous volcanos in the world. The eruptions of March and April in 1982 affected at least 51 communities located in the surroundings of the volcano and caused the death of about 2000 people. In this work we evaluate the risk perception in five communities highly populated: Juárez, Ostuacán, Pichucalco, Reforma and Sunuapa. We selected these communities because they have a high possibility to be affected by a volcanic eruption in the future. Our survey was carried out during February and March 2006. A total of 222 families were interviewed using a questionnaire to measure risk perception. These questionnaires retrieved general information as how long people had been living there and their reasons to do so; their experiences during the 1982 events, their opinion about the authorities participation and their perception of volcanic risk; the plans of the community for disaster prevention and mitigation. Some of the most important results are: (1). People perceive a very low volcanic risk and the 70% of interviewees believe that a new eruption in the future is almost improbable because it happened in 1982. This result is particularly interesting because, according to the state government, more than 100,000 inhabitants will be directly affected in case of a new similar eruption; (2). About 95% of the population do not know the current activity of the volcano and consider that the authorities do not inform properly to their communities; (3). The response of the authorities during the events of 1982 was ranked as deficient mainly because they were unable provide shelters, storage facilities, food as well as medicine and health care access; (4). Approximately 60% of the community will accept to be re-located again in case of a new eruption; (5). About 70% of the population will not accept to be re-located because

  6. Special Issue: Risk Management Challenges: Mitigate the Risk from Natural Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Paton

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Within minutes of the March 2011 earthquake in Japan, news media provided unprecedented coverage of an unfolding natural catastrophe. Events such as this place natural disasters firmly in the public eye but only for a short time. It falls to the research community to learn the lessons offered by these events and turn them into opportunities for developing more effective risk management and mitigation strategies and identifying the factors that contribute to the vulnerability and resilience of communities and response and recovery agencies. Disasters such as the Japanese tsunami also highlight the ever-present need for systematic, rigorous research into the risk posed by natural hazards and how these risks can be managed. Of course it is vital to ensure that the findings from such research endeavours are disseminated to those who can use the findings.

  7. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  8. Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

    2009-04-01

    Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although

  9. The Minimum Balance at Risk: A Proposal to Mitigate the Systemic Risks Posed by Money Market Funds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Patrick E. McCabe; Marco Cipriani; Michael Holscher; Antoine Martin

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a proposal for money market fund (MMF) reform to mitigate the systemic risk and externalities that arise from the funds' vulnerability to runs and to protect shareholders who do not redeem quickly when runs occur...

  10. Polo pony injuries: player-owner reported risk, perception, mitigation and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inness, C M; Morgan, K L

    2015-07-01

    Polo, one of the world's oldest sports, is unique in merging human skill and balance with animal agility and performance in a contact sport. These modern-day 'centaurs' offer medical, dental and veterinary scientists an unrivalled, if quirky, opportunity to collaborate. Collection of epidemiological data on injuries to UK polo riders and ponies is the first step. To measure the reported risk and risk factors for injuries to UK polo ponies, their perception and mitigation by player-owners. A retrospective cohort design and telephone interviews were used. Data on equine injuries, preseason training and risk perception were collected from a random sample of player-owners using a structured questionnaire. Injuries were defined as requiring veterinary treatment. Frequencies were represented as percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Risk factors for injuries were identified by univariable and multivariable analyses. The cumulative incidence of player-owner-reported injury was 10.6% (95% CI 8.4-12.7). Tendon injuries were most common (4.3%; 95% CI 2.9-5.7), followed by wounds and splints. The only risk factor was stabling all season (odds ratio 4.79; 95% CI 1.46-15.73). Tendon injuries were perceived as the major risk and hard ground the most important risk factor. Risk mitigation practices were bandaging before exercise (45.7%; 95% CI 34.8-56.5), checking tendons (84.0%; 95% CI 76.0-91.9), cold hosing (40.7%; 95% CI 30.0-51.4), bandaging (38.3%; 95% CI 27.7-48.9) and using clays and coolants after exercise (24.7%; 15.3-34.1). Cuts and wounds were considered most frequent by only 2.5% (95% CI 0.0-3.6) of players but were the second most common injury, accounting for 21.6% of veterinary treatments. Splints accounted for 12.5% of injuries. The risk of injury to polo ponies is similar to that in the general horse population; musculoskeletal injuries, particularly tendon injuries, are most common, followed by wounds and splints. The association between stabling and

  11. An Interdisciplinary Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment, Risk Perception and Social Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, H. N.

    2011-12-01

    During a volcanic crisis there often exists a gap in communication among scientists, decision makers and members of the affected community. While the physical processes of these events are of scientific interest and may be well understood by the scientists involved, it is the communication of the risk and possible consequences to human population within the hazard zone that is most important during the actual time of a crisis. The use of hazard maps is often an integral tool employed by scientists to communicate risk to decision makers and the general public; unfortunately, in regions that are commonly affected by volcanic events, volcanic hazard maps may be too abstract for use by the general public. The objective of this paper is to open a discussion about an interdisciplinary approach to risk communication using a four-pronged methodology: 1) identification of multiple communities that have experienced a volcanic crisis over the last 20years and an examination of the events, decisions, responses and outcomes before, during and after; 2) participatory mapping and hazards assessments with community members and decision makers to define a community's geospatial orientation relative to the hazard source; 3) develop new or modify and incorporate existing hazard educational curricula; and 4) integrate a GIS and cartographic component that will produce quality maps that communicate both hazard and risk based on spatial and social variables. The long term goal is to develop a model that will allow us to effectively identify vulnerable populations, communicate risk and map both the hazard and the associated risk in a manner that can be interpreted at all levels in the decision making process.

  12. The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

    2015-12-01

    Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

  13. Best practices for mitigating soiling risk on PV power plants

    KAUST Repository

    AlDowsari, A.

    2015-09-24

    Solar power generates proven, predictable and economical energy and new innovations have made solar PV power plants easy to deploy, integrate and maintain. Areas with large solar energy potential are among the dustiest in the world. At first glance, solar would be a natural fit in many of these environments but humidity, airborne dust, and wind of these regions often bring high soiling rates that can accumulate to reduce performance by up to 10% per month on average, where soiling can be a major loss factor that affects the energy yield for PV plants especially in humid and dusty climates. Therefore, to achieve the desired performance ratio and obtain stable generation, mitigation solutions are proposed to overcome dust issues that affect the performance of PV plants. This makes PV module cleaning a key component for long-term plant performance and sustainable profitability. In this paper, a review of the mechanisms and mitigation solutions to overcome soiling on solar installations using real-world testing and verification is investigated with emphasis on dry type cleaning methods. © 2014 IEEE.

  14. A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

  15. Industrialized watersheds have elevated risk and limited opportunities to mitigate risk through water trading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila M.W. Reddy

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Businesses are increasingly concerned about water scarcity and its financial impacts, as well as competing needs of other stakeholders and ecosystems. Industrialized watersheds may be at more serious risk from water scarcity than previously understood because industrial and municipal users have inelastic demand and a high value for water. Previous water risk assessments have failed to sufficiently capture these economic aspects of water risk. We illustrate how hydro-economic modeling can be used to improve water risk assessments at a basin scale and we apply the methodology to the industrialized Brazos River Basin (85% municipal and industrial withdrawals and consider implications for The Dow Chemical Company׳s Freeport Operations in Texas, US. Brazos water right holders pay only operating and maintenance costs for water during normal periods; however, when shortages occur, leasing stored water or reducing production may be the only mitigation option in the short-run. Modeling of water shortages and the theoretical cost of leasing water under nine combined scenarios of demand growth and climate change suggests that water lease prices to industry could increase by 9–13X. At best, a more developed water rights and storage lease market could result in lower lease prices (2–3X; however, given that transactions would be limited it is more likely that prices would still increase by 4–13X. These results suggest that markets are unlikely to be a robust solution for the Brazos because, in contrast to other watersheds in the Western US, there is little reliable water to trade from low value users (agricultural to high value users (industry and municipalities. Looking at demand trends across the contiguous US as an indicator of water risk, 2% of watersheds have municipal and industrial demands that outstrip total surface and ground water supplies and in these watersheds industry has historically paid higher lease prices for water. This study

  16. SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT AND ITS MITIGATION IN A FOOD INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Diabat, Ali; Kannan, Prof. Govindan; Panikar, Vinay

    2011-01-01

    Abstract The food supply chain is the domain in this work which suffers a lot of uncertainty in its functioning. The paper discusses the various research works in the area of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The main objective of the proposed work is to create a model which analyzes the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) tool. The types of risks are clustered in five categories and the risk mitigation is discuss...

  17. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    OpenAIRE

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; Graswinckel, M. F.; M.R. de Baar

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies...

  18. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

    2015-01-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

  19. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; M. F. Graswinckel,; M.R. de Baar,

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This

  20. Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation Techniques in Microfinance Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Elena Fuior; Veronica Mîrzac

    2008-01-01

    Many borrowing microfinance institutions (MFIs) are not adequately managing their exposure to foreign exchange rate risk. The microfinance industry has increased its awareness and understanding of foreign exchange risk, however, there has not been any significant actions taken at the industry level. The best solution for an MFI is to avoid foreign exchange risk altogether and fund itself in local currency. There a number of strategies to accomplish this: Borrow from your local bank; Negotiate...

  1. Land Use Scenario Modeling for Flood Risk Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    It is generally accepted that flood risk has been increasing in Europe in the last decades. Accordingly it becomes a priority to better understand its drivers and mechanisms. Flood risk is evaluated on the basis of three factors: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. If one of these factors increases, then so does risk. Urban expansion and associated land use dynamics are recognised as one of the main causes of increased flood risk in Europe. Land use change models used for ex-ante assessment o...

  2. Risk assessment of the impact of future volcanic eruptions on direct normal irradiance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Blanc, Philippe; Vignola, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from Plinian volcanic eruptions affect the solar surface irradiance forcing by scattering the solar radiation as it passes through the Earth atmosphere. Since these aerosols have high single scattering albedos they mostly affect direct normal irradiances (DNI). The effect on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is less because some of the scattered irradiance reaches the surface as diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and adds to the GHI. DNI is the essential input to concentrating solar thermal electric power (CSP/STE) and concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) plants. Therefore, an assessment of the future potential variability in the DNI resource caused by Plinian volcanic eruptions is desirable. Based on investigations of the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions, the microphysical, and thereby optical, properties of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols are well known. Given these, radiative transfer computations of the DNI resource can be made. The DNI resource includes forward scattered irradiance within the acceptance angle of a given CSP/STE or CPV plant. The rarity of Plinian eruptions poses a challenge for assessing the statistical risk of future eruptions and its potential of risk in the electricity production. Here we present and discuss methods to account for these potential volcanic eruptions for technical and economical studies including scenarios with very high probability of exceedance (e.g. P99 scenarios) for risk assessment of DNI-based solar power projects.

  3. Involving end users to mitigate risk in IS development projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amrit, C.; Hillegersberg, van J.; Diest, van B.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the authors aim to gain insight into the relationship between user participation modes and project risk factors, and then they constructed a model that can be used to determine how user participation can be successfully applied in ISD projects with a given set of risk factors. The auth

  4. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  5. The interest of cartography for a better perception and management of volcanic risk: From scientific to social representations: The case of Mt. Pelée volcano, Martinique (Lesser Antilles)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leone, Frédéric; Lesales, Thierry

    2009-10-01

    The study develops an innovative GIS-based integrated approach for the assessment of a comprehensive volcanic risk. This is based on a four-step methodology which has been developed at Mt. Pelée volcano, in Martinique, a French island in the Lesser Antilles. The first stage of the methodological framework integrates the spatial extent of volcanic hazards for a maximal credible eruptive scenario. The second stage covers an assessment of the elements (especially the buildings) that may be affected in the event of an eruption and defines their level of damages by given volcanic hazards. A computerized analysis leads to the definition of an index for the risk of total loss in a 500-meter grid. The third stage consists of designing regulative land use maps which should orient and limit the occupation of areas exposed to severe hazards. Finally, the fourth stage, based on survey data, includes a spatial assessment of collective representations for a future eruption by the surrounding communities. These maps turn out to be powerful communication tools which help planners and disaster authorities in mitigating damages from volcanic hazards. They can contribute to enhance the perception of volcanic risk in Martinique.

  6. Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

    2016-04-01

    In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

  7. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  8. Evaluating and mitigating fracture risk in established rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Matthew B; Saag, Kenneth G

    2015-01-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis are predisposed to systemic bone loss, and they are at an increased risk of fractures. Although there are similarities in the patient demographics between rheumatoid arthritis patients and the general population of osteoporosis patients, there are factors, particularly the use of glucocorticoids, which are specific to rheumatoid arthritis. These factors can lead to an increased risk of bone loss and fracture. Given that fractures are often very debilitating, especially in elderly patients, it is of paramount importance for the practicing rheumatologist to be aware of ways to reduce the risk of fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review discusses currently available modalities for fracture risk assessment as well as pharmacologic and lifestyle interventions available to treat and prevent bone loss in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

  9. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  10. Air Force is Developing Risk-Mitigation Strategies to Manage Potential Loss of the RD-180 Engine (REDACTED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-05

    Mitigation Study; however, they developed risk -mitigation strategies to manage the potential loss of the RD-180 engine. Therefore, we are not making...Force is Developing Risk -Mitigation Strategies to Manage Potential Loss of the RD-180 Engine (Report No. DODIG-2015-086) We are providing the enclosed...for liquid oxygenihydrocarbon-fueled rocket engine technology risk reduction. Partially ~) SAF/AQ slated il was premature to choose aspecific engine

  11. Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

    2016-10-01

    Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

  12. Risk and return of project-based climate change mitigation: a portfolio approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurikka, H. [Helsinki University of Technology (Finland). Laboratory for Energy Economics and Power Plant Engineering; Springer, U. [ECOPLAN, Bern (Switzerland)

    2003-10-01

    We present a framework for evaluating the risks of investments in climate change mitigation projects to generate emission credits. Risk factors that influence the quantity of emission credits are identified for six project types. Since not all project types are affected by the same factors, diversification is a viable risk reduction strategy. We propose a methodology for quantifying risk and return of such investments, discuss data requirements, and illustrate it using a sample of voluntary projects. In our sample, the returns of an optimally diversified low-risk portfolio are up to 10 times higher than those of single projects, holding risk exposure constant. (author)

  13. Using Derivative Contracts to Mitigate Water Utility Financial Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Characklis, G. W.; Zeff, H.

    2012-12-01

    As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit, utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs, such as outdoor water use restrictions, for ensuring reliability during drought. However, a significant fraction of water utility income is often derived from the volumetric sale of water, and such restrictions can lead to substantial revenue losses. Given that many utilities set prices at levels commensurate with recovering costs, these revenue losses can leave them financially vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls during drought. This work explores approaches for mitigating drought-related revenue losses through the use of third-party financial insurance contracts based on weather derivatives. Two different types of contracts are developed, and their efficacy is compared against two more traditional forms of financial hedging used by water utilities: drought surcharges and contingency funds (i.e. self insurance). Strategies involving each of these approaches, as well as their use in combination, are applied under conditions facing the water utility serving Durham, North Carolina. A multi-reservoir model provides information on the scale and timing of droughts, with the financial effects of these events simulated using detailed data derived from utility billing records. Results suggest that third-party derivative contracts, either independently or in combination with more traditional hedging tools (i.e. surcharges, contingency funds), can provide an effective means of reducing a utility's financial vulnerability to drought.

  14. MITIGATE - Deliverable D2.2 - Evidence-driven maritime supply chain risk assessment approach

    OpenAIRE

    Polemi, Nineta; Papastergiou, Spyridon; Karantzias, Athanassios; Georgiakodis, Fotios; Patsakis, Constantinos; Ntrigkogias, Christos; Schauer, Stefan; Latzenhofer, Martin; König, Sandra; Göllner, Johannes; Buhl, Reiner; FIEDLER, Ralf; Bosse, Claudia; Mouratidis, Haris; Pavlidis, Michalis

    2016-01-01

    Deliverable 2.2 reports the outcomes of tasks T2.3 “Specifications of Mathematical Instruments, Risk and Assurance Models” and T2.4 “Evidence-Driven Maritime Supply Chain Risk Assessment (g-MSRA) Specifications” of work package WP2. The document identifies three methodologies and frameworks; viz. Secure Tropos, AECID and MEDUSA, that are deemed relevant to the project and provided input in the formulation of the MITIGATE methodology or can be exploited in the implementation phase of the MITIG...

  15. Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

    2010-11-01

    A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

  16. To protect or abandon: a participatory process on landslide risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scolobig, A.; Bayer, J.; Cascini, L.; Ferlisi, S.

    2012-04-01

    With escalating costs of landslide risk mitigation and relief, a challenge for local authorities is to develop landslide risk mitigation measures that are viewed as efficient, feasible and fair by the many stakeholders involved. Innovative measures and the participation of stakeholders in the decision making process are essential elements in developing effective strategies to deal with the ever-changing spatial and temporal patterns of landslide risk. A stakeholder-led policy process, however, can face many social and economic challenges. One of the most difficult is deciding between costly protection measures or relocating homes. Particularly in areas with high population density, protection works are often not built because of economic/environmental constraints or private interests of the local residents. At the same time it not always possible to relocate households even if the costs are deemed less than protecting them. These issues turned out to be crucial in a recent participatory process for selecting risk mitigation measures in the town of Nocera Inferiore, Southern Italy, which experienced a landslide in 2005 causing three fatalities. The paper reports on this process which was structured in a series of meetings with a group of selected residents and several parallel activities open to the public. The preparatory work included semi-structured interviews carried out with key local stakeholders and a public survey eliciting residents' views on landslide risk mitigation. After describing the background of the landslide risk management problem in Nocera Inferiore, the paper focuses on three packages of risk mitigation measures (each of them not exceeding a total cost of 7 million Euro, namely the available funds) and the key trade-offs that emerged during the meetings with the residents. The participants reached a unanimous consensus on fundamental priorities, i.e. the improvement of the warning system, the implementation of an integrated system of monitoring

  17. A virtual community and cyberinfrastructure for collaboration in volcano research and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.

    2012-12-01

    VHub (short for VolcanoHub, and accessible at vhub.org) is an online platform for collaboration in research and training related to volcanoes, the hazards they pose, and risk mitigation. The underlying concept is to provide a mechanism that enables workers to share information with colleagues around the globe; VHub and similar hub technologies could prove very powerful in collaborating and communicating about circum-Pacific volcanic hazards. Collaboration occurs around several different points: (1) modeling and simulation; (2) data sharing; (3) education and training; (4) volcano observatories; and (5) project-specific groups. VHub promotes modeling and simulation in two ways: (1) some models can be implemented on VHub for online execution. This eliminates the need to download and compile a code on a local computer. VHub can provide a central "warehouse" for such models that should result in broader dissemination. VHub also provides a platform that supports the more complex CFD models by enabling the sharing of code development and problem-solving knowledge, benchmarking datasets, and the development of validation exercises. VHub also provides a platform for sharing of data and datasets. The VHub development team is implementing the iRODS data sharing middleware (see irods.org). iRODS allows a researcher to access data that are located at participating data sources around the world (a "cloud" of data) as if the data were housed in a single virtual database. Education and training is another important use of the VHub platform. Audio-video recordings of seminars, PowerPoint slide sets, and educational simulations are all items that can be placed onto VHub for use by the community or by selected collaborators. An important point is that the "manager" of a given educational resource (or any other resource, such as a dataset or a model) can control the privacy of that resource, ranging from private (only accessible by, and known to, specific collaborators) to completely

  18. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  19. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

  20. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  1. Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gehl

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on deterministic adverse event input, which are applied to the case study of an effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.. The use of an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption.

  2. Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... optimization methods focus on mitigation of geological risks related to the long-term net present value (NPV). A major drawback of such methods is that the time-dependent and exceedingly growing uncertainty of oil prices implies that long-term predictions become highly unreliable. Conventional methods...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...

  3. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

  4. Operation Risk Mitigation On Halal Meat Supply Chain Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansur, Agus; Farida, Ayu; Ulil Albab, Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    Business owner of perishable goods such as meats has barriers to meet the demand of worldwide shipping. One of potential risk is damage resulting in decreased quality product, while the product selection criteria not only focus on quality. As the development of health issues and needs, halal meats is not only considered by the Muslim consumer but also consumer globally. In addition, they have to pay attention to the possible risk that might occur during the logistic operations so as they prevent loss if they fail to deal with the problem and risk properly. Quality Function Development proposed to identify what consumer’s need as well as to analyse the condition of market in the future. The study is conducted in the context of business owner’s feelings based on their obstacles. It also aims to unravel the expectations and perceptions of owners with interrelated issues such as halal meats with each affecting on the other multidirectional ways. This study has revealed new insights for policy makers, logistics service providers, and practitioners whose decisions might impact the industry.

  5. International collaboration towards a global analysis of volcanic hazards and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin, Susan; Duncan, Melanie; Volcano Model Network, Global

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 800 million people live within 100km of an active volcano and such environments are often subject to multiple natural hazards. Volcanic eruptions and related volcanic hazards are less frequent than many other natural hazards but when they occur they can have immediate and long-lived impacts so it is important that they are not overlooked in a multi-risk assessment. Based on experiences to date, it's clear that natural hazards communities need to address a series of challenges in order to move to a multi-hazard approach to risk assessment. Firstly, the need to further develop synergies and coordination within our own communities at local to global scales. Secondly, we must collaborate and identify opportunities for harmonisation across natural hazards communities: for instance, by ensuring our databases are accessible and meet certain standards, a variety of users will be then able to contribute and access data. Thirdly, identifying the scale and breadth of multi-risk assessments needs to be co-defined with decision-makers, which will constrain the relevant potential cascading/compounding hazards to consider. Fourthly, and related to all previous points, multi-risk assessments require multi-risk knowledge, requiring interdisciplinary perspectives, as well as discipline specific expertise. The Global Volcano Model network (GVM) is a growing international network of (public and private) institutions and organisations, which have the collective aim of identifying and reducing volcanic risks. GVM's values embody collaboration, scientific excellence, open-access (wherever possible) and, above all, public good. GVM highlights and builds on the best research available within the volcanological community, drawing on the work of IAVCEI Commissions and other research initiatives. It also builds on the local knowledge of volcano observatories and collaborating scientists, ensuring that global efforts are underpinned by local evidence. Some of GVM's most

  6. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  7. Hypnotic Medications and Suicide: Risk, Mechanisms, Mitigation, and the FDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, W Vaughn; Benca, Ruth M; Rosenquist, Peter B; Riley, Mary Anne; McCloud, Laryssa; Newman, Jill C; Case, Doug; Rumble, Meredith; Krystal, Andrew D

    2017-01-01

    Insomnia is associated with increased risk for suicide. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has mandated that warnings regarding suicide be included in the prescribing information for hypnotic medications. The authors conducted a review of the evidence for and against the claim that hypnotics increase the risk of suicide. This review focused on modern, FDA-approved hypnotics, beginning with the introduction of benzodiazepines, limiting its findings to adults. PubMed and Web of Science were searched, crossing the terms "suicide" and "suicidal" with each of the modern FDA-approved hypnotics. The FDA web site was searched for postmarketing safety reviews, and the FDA was contacted with requests to provide detailed case reports for hypnotic-related suicide deaths reported through its Adverse Event Reporting System. Epidemiological studies show that hypnotics are associated with an increased risk for suicide. However, none of these studies adequately controlled for depression or other psychiatric disorders that may be linked with insomnia. Suicide deaths have been reported from single-agent hypnotic overdoses. A separate concern is that benzodiazepine receptor agonist hypnotics can cause parasomnias, which in rare cases may lead to suicidal ideation or suicidal behavior in persons who were not known to be suicidal. On the other hand, ongoing research is testing whether treatment of insomnia may reduce suicidality in adults with depression. The review findings indicate that hypnotic medications are associated with suicidal ideation. Future studies should be designed to assess whether increases in suicidality result from CNS impairments from a given hypnotic medication or whether such medication decreases suicidality because of improvements in insomnia.

  8. Investigating the formal countermeasures and informal strategies used to mitigate SPAD risk in train driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naweed, Anjum; Rainbird, Sophia; Chapman, Janine

    2015-01-01

    Various countermeasures are used to mitigate signal passed at danger (SPAD) events on railways, yet they continue. While risk factors that destabilise cognitive processes have been identified, less has been published on the relationship between these factors and the informal strategies that drivers themselves adopt to reduce individual SPAD risk. This study aimed to address this gap and used a participative approach to collect and thematically analyse data from 28 drivers across eight rail organisations in Australia and New Zealand. The results showed not all formal countermeasures were considered effective, and identified several informal strategies. These aimed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain connectedness to signals. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk. This paper explores the relationship between the established risks and identified strategies towards evaluating the utility of formal and informal mitigations. The research has application to the investigation of collision risk in all transport domains. Practitioner Summary: A participative approach was used to investigate SPAD mitigation techniques in train driving, and to explore risk-strategy relationship dynamics. Several informal strategies designed to reduce task disruption, service distortion and maintain signal connectedness were identified. While some evidenced redundancies in the task and cab, others did not reduce baseline risk.

  9. Assessing and mitigating risks of engineering programs with lean management techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritz, A.; Oehmen, Josef; Rebentisch, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices for a speci......This paper investigates the use of lean management techniques as a risk mitigation approach for large-scale engineering programs. The key research questions are how lean best practices with the highest risk mitigation potential are identified, how the most relevant lean best practices...... for a specific program are identified and how the effort for implementation of these lean best practices is estimated. Large-scale engineering programs have as results usually complex technical products or systems such as airplanes, satellites (GPS) or software programs, immense infrastructure efforts like...... [Shao and Müller 2011, Shao et al. 2012]. To incorporate these capabilities and to manage the obviously difficult entity of a program, a variety of standards and guidance books have been published. The two most prominent ones are Managing Successful Programs (MSP) and The Standard for Program Management...

  10. Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments

    OpenAIRE

    Matsukawa, Tomoko; Habeck, Odo

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the Review of Risk Mitigation Instruments for Infrastructure Financing and Recent Trends and Developments is to provide a concise yet comprehensive guide as well as reference information for practitioners of infrastructure financing, including private sector financiers and developing country officials. The work is also intended as a reference for institutions offering (or ...

  11. Environmental Satellites: Planning Required to Mitigate Near-Term Risks and Ensure Long-Term Continuity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-29

    work together. For example, climate measurements have allowed scientists to better understand the effect of deforestation on how the earth absorbs...development activities. Until the transition risks are effectively mitigated, and unless components are able to continue scheduled development, it...observations such as greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide), aerosol and dust particles, and moisture concentration. When these data are

  12. 76 FR 14413 - Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential Procoagulant Activity in Immune Globulin...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-16

    ...) pathophysiology of arterial and venous thrombosis in this context; (3) research to identify specific procoagulant...) the role of activated Coagulation Factor XIa in IGIV-associated thrombosis; (6) test methods for... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Risk Mitigation Strategies To Address Potential...

  13. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Roderick F. Zimba

    2014-05-12

    May 12, 2014 ... PhD, is affiliated to the Department of Educational Psychology and Inclusive Education at the University of ..... values and measures that could be taken to mitigate the risk factors. .... observed in the eyes, gestures, facial expressions and voices of the young ..... opment Community region and elsewhere.

  14. Mitigation of the hydrogen risk in fusion reactors; Mitigation du risque hydrogene dans les reacteurs de fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maruejouls, C.; Robin, J.C. [CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. d' Etudes des Reacteurs; Arnould, F.; Bachellerie, E. [Technicatome DI SEPS, 13 - Aix en Provence (France); Latge, C. [CEA Cadarache, Dept. d' Etudes des Dechets DED, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Laurent, A. [Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine, Lab. des Sciences du Genie Chimique, 54 - Nancy (France)

    2001-07-01

    The rupture of the first wall and the intrusion of water vapor inside the torus, is one of the major accident that can occur in a thermonuclear fusion reactor. In this situation, water oxidizes the beryllium of the wall and the reaction produces hydrogen with a strong risk of explosion inside the reactor. In order to mitigate this risk, a process based on the reduction of metal oxides (MnO{sub 2}, Ag{sub 2}O) has been developed. The aim of this study is the determination of the kinetics of this reduction reaction. A mixture of both oxides has been deposited on the surface of porous balls for an experiment on fixed beds. The modeling of the phenomenon is based on the equations used in heterogenous catalysis and the experimental determination of the kinetics of the reaction is performed with the CIGNE test-facility. The velocity of the reduction reaction is deduced from the remaining amount of hydrogen in the test-gas (N{sub 2} with 1 to 2% of H{sub 2}) after it has been flowed on the oxides coated balls of the fixed bed. (J.S.)

  15. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2014-07-01

    The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  16. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

  17. CAESAR: An Initiative of Public Service for Collision Risks Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, Francois; Moury, Monique; Beaumet, Gregory

    2013-09-01

    This paper starts by describing the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using CSM data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2-step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for Middle Man role.After describing the Middle Man concept, it introduces the French response CAESAR and the need for collaborative work environment which is implied by Middle Man concept. It includes a description of the environment put in place for CAESAR (secure website and dedicated tools), the content of the service, and the condition for the distribution of the CNES software JAC and the advantages for subscribers.

  18. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  19. An Efficient Approach towards Mitigating Soft Errors Risks

    CERN Document Server

    Sadi, Muhammad Sheikh; Uddin, Md Nazim; Jürjens, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Smaller feature size, higher clock frequency and lower power consumption are of core concerns of today's nano-technology, which has been resulted by continuous downscaling of CMOS technologies. The resultant 'device shrinking' reduces the soft error tolerance of the VLSI circuits, as very little energy is needed to change their states. Safety critical systems are very sensitive to soft errors. A bit flip due to soft error can change the value of critical variable and consequently the system control flow can completely be changed which leads to system failure. To minimize soft error risks, a novel methodology is proposed to detect and recover from soft errors considering only 'critical code blocks' and 'critical variables' rather than considering all variables and/or blocks in the whole program. The proposed method shortens space and time overhead in comparison to existing dominant approaches.

  20. Leveraging New Technology for Data-Driven Risk Mitigation and Management : Selected Examples and Summaries

    OpenAIRE

    Khokhar, Tariq

    2013-01-01

    This report asserts that in the last decade, technologies have emerged that make the collection, analysis, and distribution of data faster, cheaper, and possible in places where it wasn’t before, and novel applications that combine these technologies and the data they produce, along with new analytical techniques, change the mitigation, management, and evaluation of responses to risk. Individuals can leverage the same technologies to take informed risks and pursue opportunities. The timelines...

  1. Residentś risk perception of and response to SO2 risk in east Iceland during the volcanic eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun 2014-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún

    2016-04-01

    organized special community meetings in the affected areas in order to inform and advise the inhabitants about consequences and preparedness of the SO2 risks. Here, we present the results from a survey conducted in both urban and rural communities east of the eruption site in order to investigate residentś perception and understanding of the risk, the efficiency of information and communication from officials during the eruption as well as the potential health effects from the SO2 pollution. In depth interviews were carried out with local authorities, Civil Protection officials and inhabitants in the SO2 affected areas with the aim to investigate their mitigation measures, response, and exposure during the eruption. It is important to identify public risk perception and their understanding of the pollution, and recognize factors that influence their preparedness during periods of heavy pollution in order to increase the society's resilience to volcanic risk.

  2. To Risk or Not to Risk: Anxiety and the Calibration between Risk Perception and Danger Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

  3. Identifying and mitigating risks for agricultural injury associated with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Nathan; Janssen, Ian; Hagel, Louise; Dosman, James; Lawson, Joshua; Trask, Catherine; Pickett, William

    2016-12-01

    In some occupational contexts overweight and obesity have been identified as risk factors for injury. The purpose of this study was to examine this hypothesis within farm work environments and then to identify specific opportunities for environmental modification as a preventive strategy. Data on farm-related injuries, height and weight used to calculate body mass index (BMI), and demographic characteristics were from the Phase 2 baseline survey of the Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort; a large cross-sectional mail-based survey conducted in Saskatchewan, Canada from January through May 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between BMI and injury. Injury narratives were explored qualitatively. Findings were inconsistent and differed according to gender. Among women (n = 927), having overweight (adjusted OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.29 to 6.70) but not obesity (1.10; 95% CI: 0.35 to 3.43) was associated with an increased odds of incurring a farm-related injury. No strong or statistically significant effects were observed for men (n = 1406) with overweight or obesity. While injury-related challenges associated with obesity have been addressed in other occupational settings via modification of the worksite, such strategies are challenging to implement in farm settings because of the diversity of work tasks and associated hazards. We conclude that the acute effects of overweight in terms of injury do require consideration in agricultural populations, but these should also be viewed with a differentiation based on gender.

  4. Nanopesticides and nanofertilizers: emerging contaminants or opportunities for risk mitigation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie eKah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called nanopesticides and nanofertilizers. In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices.This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  5. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called “nanopesticides” and “nanofertilizers.” In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals. PMID:26636068

  6. Nanopesticides and Nanofertilizers: Emerging Contaminants or Opportunities for Risk Mitigation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kah, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called "nanopesticides" and "nanofertilizers." In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices. This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial) questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  7. Identifying and mitigating risks for agricultural injury associated with obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan King

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In some occupational contexts overweight and obesity have been identified as risk factors for injury. The purpose of this study was to examine this hypothesis within farm work environments and then to identify specific opportunities for environmental modification as a preventive strategy. Data on farm-related injuries, height and weight used to calculate body mass index (BMI, and demographic characteristics were from the Phase 2 baseline survey of the Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort; a large cross-sectional mail-based survey conducted in Saskatchewan, Canada from January through May 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between BMI and injury. Injury narratives were explored qualitatively. Findings were inconsistent and differed according to gender. Among women (n = 927, having overweight (adjusted OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.29 to 6.70 but not obesity (1.10; 95% CI: 0.35 to 3.43 was associated with an increased odds of incurring a farm-related injury. No strong or statistically significant effects were observed for men (n = 1406 with overweight or obesity. While injury-related challenges associated with obesity have been addressed in other occupational settings via modification of the worksite, such strategies are challenging to implement in farm settings because of the diversity of work tasks and associated hazards. We conclude that the acute effects of overweight in terms of injury do require consideration in agricultural populations, but these should also be viewed with a differentiation based on gender.

  8. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  9. Mitigating the risk of food handling in the home-delivered meal program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namkung, Young; Ismail, Joseph A; Almanza, Barbara A; Nelson, Douglas C

    2007-02-01

    The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the length of time between packing and delivery of home-delivered meals, and the extent of foodborne illness risk to the elderly. Procedures to mitigate that risk were also evaluated. Researchers surveyed 95 drivers from home-delivered meal preparation sites in six states across the United States to determine the average length of time that passed during packing, loading, leaving, and delivery. The efficiency of various risk mitigation methods were evaluated and used to adjust the actual delivery time. Total average delivery time from packing to last delivery was 1.92 hours. This study suggests that the risk associated with the actual 1.92 hours of total delivery time could be mitigated to represent approximately 1.55 hours of effective time with proper packing and holding conditions. This methodology proposes a single measure for evaluating the effectiveness of various handling procedures associated with distributing home-delivered meals, which can be utilized to evaluate overall risk when combined with in-house preparation and client-handling behaviors.

  10. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  11. Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

    2009-04-01

    Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) Dohy.Faied@masters.isunet.edu While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. VIDA also offers substantial educational potential: the framework includes a centralized clearinghouse for volcanology data which could support education at a variety of levels. Basic geophysical data, satellite maps, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

  12. A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcorn, R.; Panter, K. S.; Gorsevski, P.; Ye, X.

    2013-05-01

    The Jemez Volcanic field in New Mexico is best known for the two cataclysmic eruptions that formed the Valles Caldera and deposited the Bandelier tuff at 1.61 and 1.25 Ma. This was followed by a period of small-scale activity limited to within the moat until ~ 55 ka when plinian eruptions sourced from the El Cajete crater dispersed tephra well beyond the caldera wall. These deposits include the El Cajete pyroclastic beds and the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Following the eruption of the Banco Bonito lava flow at ~40 ka, the Valles caldera has lain dormant. However, there is potential for future activity and it is prudent to assess the risk to the surrounding area and consider possible mitigation strategies well before a disaster strikes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic hazards tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows [1] and to assess the social and economic vulnerability of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fall deposits originating from the El Cajete crater are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by [2]. The change in the axial orientation of fall deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at two other vent locations determined from probability distributions of structural features. The resulting hazard maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fall, PDCs and lava flows, indicating areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk. To assess hazard preparedness, social vulnerability is evaluated for all census-designated places (CDP) within the study site. Based on methods by [3], twenty

  13. Volcanic hazards to airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

    2009-01-01

    , Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries - USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom - have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

  14. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

  15. Documenting the Intangible and the Use of "collective Memory" as a Tool for Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekim, Z.; Güney, E. E.; Vatan, M.

    2017-08-01

    Increasing immigration activities due to globalized economies, political conflicts, wars and disasters of the recent years not only had a serious impact on the tangible heritage fabric, but also on the intangible values of heritage sites. With the challenges of managing drastic changes the field of heritage is faced with in mind, this paper proposes a documentation strategy that utilizes "collective memory" as a tool for risk mitigation of culturally diverse sites. Intangible and tangible values of two cases studies, from Turkey and Canada, are studied in a comparative way to create a methodology for the use of collected data on "collective memory and identity" in risk mitigation and managing change as a living value of the site.

  16. Risk mitigation in the implementation of AMTs: A guiding framework for future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhaskar Nagar

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The fast industrial development increases different types of risks for the industries. Many risk factors are inherent in the implementation of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs. Industries are developing methodologies for risk prevention and protection. The present research focuses to identify various risks that could influence the implementation of AMTs, and develop a framework to mitigate them. For this framework, interpretive structural modeling(ISM has been used to depict the relationship and priority among the various risks. This research provides a path for managers and indicates the dominant risks on the basis of higher driving power. Also, this research classifies the relationship among various risks in AMTs implementation according to their driving power and dependence. The risks have been categorized into four categories as autonomous risks, linkage risks, dependent risks and independent risks. The proposed hierarchal model would help the management to effectively handle and develop strategies against the risks and hence new and latest technologies can be adopted with ease and effectiveness.

  17. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Chun [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu (China); Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); Jia, Hui-Hui [State High-Tech Industrial Innovation Center, Shenzhen 518057, Guangdong (China); Wang, Jun-Jian, E-mail: junjian.wang@utoronto.ca [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

  18. Cost-effective alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in drinking water and enhancing ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, B. A.; Kandulu, J. M.

    2009-08-01

    Under the multibarrier paradigm, water quality management barriers that mitigate risk to consumers are required at multiple points from the catchment to the tap. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis of 13 catchment- and treatment-based management alternatives for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in the Myponga water supply catchment, South Australia. A broad range of costs and benefits are identified and valued, including setup, operation and maintenance, and opportunity costs, and benefits for ecosystem services including water quality, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and farm production services. The results suggest that the cost-effectiveness of investment in water quality management can be substantially enhanced by considering the costs of management and the benefits for ecosystem services, in addition to Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness of investment in management alternatives is dependent upon the desired level of Cryptosporidium removal effectiveness by both the catchment and treatment barriers. The combination of a spatially targeted 25% restriction in water course access of nondairy cattle and treatment by enhanced coagulation provides the most (net) cost-effective Cryptosporidium risk mitigation strategy. This combination may achieve 0.614 log removal at a net cost of A0.7 million and (net) cost-effectiveness of A1.14 million per log removal. Additional risk mitigation can be achieved through the addition of ultraviolet irradiation treatment, higher levels of water course access restriction for cattle, and the adoption of dung beetles in the catchment. Economic valuation of a range of costs and benefits of management priorities can support cost-effective water quality management investment decisions and inform elements of policy design such as cost-sharing arrangements and spatial targeting.

  19. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  20. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trowsdale, R. [EPCOR Power Development Corp. (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance.

  1. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  2. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: what motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  3. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety: Two Cognitive Pathways to Task Avoidance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Ilona M; Dunlop, Patrick D; Skinner, Timothy C; Morrison, David L

    2016-02-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single study to date has examined the influence of these traits and processes together. Examining them simultaneously is necessary to gain an integrated understanding of their relationship with risk-mitigating behaviors. We therefore examined these traits and mediators in relation to wildfire preparedness in a two-wave field study among residents of wildfire-prone areas in Western Australia (total N = 223). Structural equation modeling results showed that indecisiveness uniquely predicted preparedness, with higher indecisiveness predicting lower preparedness. This relationship was fully mediated by perceived control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction. This shows how the lack of performing risk-mitigating behaviors can result from distinct cognitive processes that are linked to distinct personality traits. It also highlights how simultaneous examination of multiple pathways to behavior creates a fuller understanding of its antecedents.

  4. Residual flood-risk: assessing the effectiveness of alternative large-scale mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    The EU Flood Directive (2007/60/CE) requires institutions and public bodies, in order to formulate robust flood-risk management strategies for large European rivers, to address several fundamental tasks. For instance, they have to address the problem of flood-risk mitigation from a global perspective (i.e., entire middle-lower river reaches) by identifying critical reaches, inundation areas and corresponding overflow volumes. To this aim, we focus on the identification of large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies for the middle-lower reach of the Po river, the longest Italian river and the largest in terms of streamflow. We refer to the so-called residual flood-risk and in particular to its portion referring to the possibility to experience events associated with larger return periods than the reference one (e.g. ~200 years in our case). In particular, being a further levee heightening not technically viable nor economically conceivable for the case study, the study develops and tests the applicability of a quasi-2D hydraulic model for the identification of large-scale flood-risk mitigation strategies relative to a 500-year flood event. In particular, we consider and model in the study different geometrical configurations of the main embankment system for a ~400km reach stretching from Isola S.Antonio to the Po river delta in the Adriatic Sea: overtopping without levee breaching, overtopping and natural levee breaching, overtopping and forced levee breaching. The simulations enable the assessment of the overflowed volumes and water depths on flooded areas. Expected damages are estimated using simplified graphical tools, which we termed "Vulnerability Hypsometric Curves" (HVCs) and report the extent of the area for a given land use category that is located below a certain elevation. The analysis aims at finding the optimal configuration that minimizes the expected damages in the areas prone to flood. The outcomes of our study indicate that coupling a large

  5. DEVELOPING SOFT MEASURES FOR FLOOD RISK MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN ROMANIA: PUBLIC INFORMING AND AWARENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LILIANA ZAHARIA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights, firstly, some general aspects concerning flood risk adaptation measures, especially those aiming public informing/education and awareness. Secondly, the paper is focused on Romania and presents: the legislative and action general framework on climate change adaptation and flood risk management; potential measures for flood risk mitigation and adaptation, with special focus on public informing/ communication and education actions; institutions and tools for public informing on flood risk in Romania. Finally, some examples of actions aiming flood risk informing/education and awareness at local scale (Tecuci City in Galaţi County, and the communes of Vulturu and Năneşti in Vrancea County are presented.

  6. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  7. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, de J.L.; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk asses

  8. Mitigating cascades in sandpile models: an immunization strategy for systemic risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scala, Antonio; Zlatić, Vinko; Caldarelli, Guido; D'Agostino, Gregorio

    2016-10-01

    We use a simple model of distress propagation (the sandpile model) to show how financial systems are naturally subject to the risk of systemic failures. Taking into account possible network structures among financial institutions, we investigate if simple policies can limit financial distress propagation to avoid system-wide crises, i.e. to dampen systemic risk. We therefore compare different immunization policies (i.e. targeted helps to financial institutions) and find that the information coming from the network topology allows to mitigate systemic cascades by targeting just few institutions.

  9. Decision-Support System for Mitigating Long-Term Flood Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, H. R.; van Delden, H.; Newman, J. P.; Riddell, G. A.; Zecchin, A. C.; Dandy, G. C.; Newland, C. P.

    2015-12-01

    Long-term flood risk in urban areas is expected to increase as a result of a number of factors, such as an increase in the severity of flood events due to the impact of climate change and the exposure of a larger number of people to flooding as a result of population growth. In order to facilitate the development of long-term flood mitigation plans, a framework for a decision-support system (DSS) is presented in this paper. The framework consists of an integrated model (see Figure) consisting of dynamic, spatially distributed land-use and flood inundation models. It also enables the impact of various flood mitigation strategies to be assessed, such as spatial planning, land management, structural measures (e.g. levees, changes in building codes), and community education. The framework considers a number of external drivers that are represented in the form of long-term planning scenarios. These include the impact of climate drivers on the extent of flooding via the flood inundation model and the impact of population and economic drivers on the size and distribution of the population via the land use allocation model. Using this framework, a DSS is being developed and applied to the Greater Adelaide region of South Australia. This DSS includes an intuitive, user-friendly interface for enabling different planning scenarios and mitigation portfolios to be selected, as well as temporal changes in flood risk maps under each of these scenarios to be observed. Changes in flood risk maps are investigated over a 30-year period with climate drivers represented by different representative concentration pathways, population drivers represented by different population projections and economic drivers represented by different employment rates. The impact of different combinations of mitigation measures is also investigated. The results indicate that climate, population and economic drivers have a significant impact on the temporal evolution of flood risk for the case study area

  10. Principles of volcanic risk metrics: Theory and the case study of Mount Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Woo, Gordon

    2009-03-01

    Despite volcanic risk having been defined quantitatively more than 30 years ago, this risk has been managed without being effectively measured. The recent substantial progress in quantifying eruption probability paves the way for a new era of rational science-based volcano risk management, based on what may be termed "volcanic risk metrics" (VRM). In this paper, we propose the basic principles of VRM, based on coupling probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting with cost-benefit analysis. The VRM strategy has the potential to rationalize decision making across a broad spectrum of volcanological questions. When should the call for evacuation be made? What early preparations should be made for a volcano crisis? Is it worthwhile waiting longer? What areas should be covered by an emergency plan? During unrest, what areas of a large volcanic field or caldera should be evacuated, and when? The VRM strategy has the paramount advantage of providing a set of quantitative and transparent rules that can be established well in advance of a crisis, optimizing and clarifying decision-making procedures. It enables volcanologists to apply all their scientific knowledge and observational information to assist authorities in quantifying the positive and negative risk implications of any decision.

  11. Assessing volcanic risk in regions with low frequency eruptions: the Laacher See case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riede, Felix; Blong, Russell

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 13,000 years ago, the Laacher See volcano located in present-day western Germany (East Eifel volcanic field, Rhenish Shield) erupted cataclysmically and, to-date, for the last time. In addition to the near-vent destruction wrought by pyroclastic flows and massive tephra deposition, a swath of airfall ash covered Europe from the Alps to the Baltic. Mofettes in the caldera lake as well as tomography studies clearly reveal the presence of a still-active hot spot in the Eifel suggestive of the possibility of renewed activity. Previous studies have focused on the near-vent situation and on unraveling the eruption sequence. Archive legacy data harvested from a variety of disciplinary and often obscure sources (palynology, pedology, archaeology, geological grey literature) now provide new insights into the medial, distal and ultra-distal distribution of Laacher See fallout. This tephra-fall distribution and its utility as a chronostratigraphic marker at archaeological sites allow a detailed reconstruction of contemporaneous human impacts. At the same time, tephra samples collected from sites across northern Europe also reveal the causal contributions of different hazard phenomena (dental abrasion, vegetation impacts, health hazards). Given the high density of key infrastructure installations and of population in the region, risk calculations using the recently proposed Volcanic Risk Coefficient (VRC) place the Laacher See volcano on par with many more active and routinely monitored volcanoes (e.g. Teide, Ischia) - despite the Laacher See's long repose period. Indeed, the lack of prior exposure of Western European populations, coupled with the large number of countries likely to be affected by any future eruption would further aggravate any given impact. The data extant now could be used to construct robust Realistic Disaster Scenarios, and to improve outreach efforts aimed at raising awareness of this major volcano in the heart of Europe.

  12. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  13. A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

  14. Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

    2014-05-01

    Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

  15. Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation... will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep and highly stressed mines and in areas vulnerable to natural earthquakes. 2. To develop human and technical capacity in South Africa...

  16. Fusion characteristics of volcanic ash relevant to aviation hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenjia; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Damby, David E.; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Cimarelli, Corrado; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2014-04-01

    The fusion dynamics of volcanic ash strongly impacts deposition in hot parts of jet engines. In this study, we investigate the sintering behavior of volcanic ash using natural ash of intermediate composition, erupted in 2012 at Santiaguito Volcano, Guatemala. A material science procedure was followed in which we monitored the geometrical evolution of cylindrical-shaped volcanic ash compact upon heating from 50 to 1400°C in a heating microscope. Combined morphological, mineralogical, and rheological analyses helped define the evolution of volcanic ash during fusion and sintering and constrain their sticking potential as well as their ability to flow at characteristic temperatures. For the ash investigated, 1240°C marks the onset of adhesion and flowability. The much higher fusibility of ash compared to that of typical test sands demonstrates for the need of a more extensive fusion characterization of volcanic ash in order to mitigate the risk posed on jet engine operation.

  17. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs in solid organ transplantation: the promises of information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsapepas, Demetra S; McKeen, Jaclyn T; Martin, Spencer T; Walker-McDermott, Jennifer K; Yang, Alex; Hirsch, Jamie; Mohan, Sumit; Tiwari, Ruchi

    2014-10-01

    Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) required by the Food and Drug Administration are implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing safe use throughout the life of a pharmaceutical agent. Healthcare organizations have begun to adopt information technologies with clinical decision support (CDS) to ensure safe use of medications. Systems have been expanded and customized to also ensure compliance with regulatory standards. End users who are unfamiliar with particular medication use provisions are at risk of unknowingly inappropriately fulfilling specific components. Institution-specific customization of vendor-provided CDS is useful to enhance provider awareness and ensure compliance with standards. Integration of health information technology systems to fulfill REMS requirements is novel and important to ensure consistency as healthcare standards evolve.

  18. Pets' Impact on Your Patients' Health: Leveraging Benefits and Mitigating Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Kate; Barton, Luisa; Darling, Marcia; Antao, Viola; Kim, Florence A; Monavvari, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Over two thirds of Americans live with pets and consider them important members of the family. Pets benefit human health (zooeyia) in 4 ways: as builders of social capital, as agents of harm reduction, as motivators for healthy behavior change, and as potential participants in treatment plans. Conversely, pets can present risks to their owners. They are potential sources of zoonotic disease and injury. Pets can also challenge a family's prioritization of financial and social resources. To activate the benefits of zooeyia and appropriately calibrate and mitigate zoonotic risk, physicians first need to know about the pets in their patients' families. Asking about pets is a simple and feasible approach to assess patients' environmental history and social capital. Asking about pets is a nonthreatening way to build rapport and demonstrates an interest in the whole family, which can improve the physician-patient therapeutic alliance. Physicians can use an interprofessional, collaborative approach with veterinarians to address zoonotic health risks and leverage zooeyia.

  19. Relevance of Fukushima Nuclear Accident to India: Nuclear Radiation Risk and Interventions to Mitigate Adverse Fallout

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadav Kapil, Varshney Neha, Aslesh OP, Karmakar MG, Pandav Chandrakant S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The environmental radiation release from Fukushima nuclear power following tsunami in Japan has once again highlighted the omnipotent risk of radiation injury in the today’s world. India is at a real risk from radiation fallout both due to nuclear power plant accidents and nuclear warfare threat. The risk from nuclear radiation accident in India is further increased by the region being endemic for iodine deficiency as adverse effects following nuclear radiation fallout like thyroid cancer is significantly higher in iodine deficient populations .There is need to institute disaster preparedness measures to mitigate the damage in case of a nuclear accident. Interventions to control adverse fallout of nuclear radiation include evacuation, sheltering and food controls as well as iodine prophylaxis

  20. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control.

  1. Calculating and Mitigating the Risk of a Cut Glove to a Space Walking Astronaut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2013-01-01

    One of the high risk operations on the International Space Station (ISS) is conducting a space walk, or an Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA). Threats to the space walking crew include airlock failures, space suit failures, and strikes from micro ]meteoroids and orbital debris (MM/OD). There are risks of becoming untethered from the space station, being pinched between the robotic arm and a piece of equipment, tearing your suit on a sharp edge, and other human errors that can be catastrophic. For decades NASA identified and tried to control sharp edges on external structure and equipment by design; however a new and unexpected source of sharp edges has since become apparent. Until recently, one of the underappreciated environmental risks was damage to EVA gloves during a spacewalk. The ISS has some elements which have been flying in the environment of space for over 14 years. It has and continues to be bombarded with MM/OD strikes that have created small, sharp craters all over the structure, including the dedicated EVA handrails and surrounding structure. These craters are capable of cutting through several layers of the EVA gloves. Starting in 2006, five EVA crewmembers reported cuts in their gloves so large they rendered the gloves unusable and in some cases cut the spacewalk short for the safety of the crew. This new hazard took engineers and managers by surprise. NASA has set out to mitigate this risk to safety and operations by redesigning the spacesuit gloves to be more resilient and designing a clamp to isolate MM/OD strikes on handrails, and is considering the necessity of an additional tool to repair strikes on non ]handrail surfaces (such as a file). This paper will address how the ISS Risk Team quantified an estimate of the MM/OD damage to the ISS, and the resulting likelihood of sustaining a cut glove in order to measure the effectiveness of the solutions being investigated to mitigate this risk to the mission and crew.

  2. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  3. Zoning and compartmentalisation as risk mitigation measures: an example from poultry production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratananakorn, L; Wilson, D

    2011-04-01

    This paper discusses the application of compartmentalisation in the Thai commercial poultry industry. The concept was adopted to address Thailand's inability to export fresh poultry meat because of endemic avian influenza. Owing to the nature of compartmentalisation, implementation required a strong partnership between government and the private sector (the Thai poultry exporters). The paper describes the processes implemented to ensure that appropriate risk mitigation measures were in place and to guarantee the continued biosecurity of the compartments. Other Members of the World Organisation for Animal Health may be able to adapt the compartment system used in Thailand to their own similar situations and the formal international recognition of such systems would be beneficial.

  4. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  5. Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  6. Tradeoffs in Risk and Return of Financial Hedging Solutions to Mitigate Drought-Related Financial Risks for Water Utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.

    2016-12-01

    Financial hedging solutions have been examined as tools for effectively mitigating water scarcity related financial risks for water utilities, and have become more prevalent as conservation (resulting in reduced revenues) and water transfers (resulting in increased costs) play larger roles in drought management. Individualized financial contracts (i.e. designed for a single utility) provide evidence of the potential benefits of financial hedging. However, individualized contracts require substantial time and information to develop, limiting their widespread implementation. More generalized contracts have also shown promise, and would allow the benefits of risk pooling to be more effectively realized, resulting in less expensive contracts. Risk pooling reduces the probability of an insurer making payouts that deviate significantly from the mean, but given that the financial risks of drought are spatially correlated amongst utilities, these more extreme "fat tail" risks remain. Any group offering these hedging contracts, whether a third-party insurer or a "mutual" comprised of many utilities, will need to balance the costs (i.e. additional risk) and benefits (i.e. returns) of alternative approaches to managing the extreme risks (e.g. through insurance layers). The balance of these different approaches will vary depending on the risk pool being considered, including the number, size and exposure of the participating utilities. This work first establishes a baseline of the tradeoffs between risk and expected return in insuring against the financial risks of water scarcity without alternative hedging approaches for water utilities across all climate divisions of the United States. Then various scenarios are analyzed to provide insight into how to maximize returns for risk pooling portfolios at various risk levels through balancing different insurance layers and hedging approaches. This analysis will provide valuable information for designing optimal financial risk

  7. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  8. Reactions to children's transgressions in at-risk caregivers: does mitigating information, type of transgression, or caregiver directive matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Lauren M; Skowronski, John J; Crouch, Julie L; Milner, Joel S; Zengel, Bettina

    2014-05-01

    This study examined whether caregivers who exhibit high risk for child physical abuse differ from low-risk caregivers in reactions to transgressing children. Caregivers read vignettes describing child transgressions. These vignettes varied in: (a) the type of transgression described (moral, conventional, personal), (b) presentation of transgression-mitigating information (present, absent), and (c) whether a directive to avoid the transgression was in the vignette (yes, no). After reading each vignette, caregivers provided ratings reflecting their: (a) perceptions of transgression wrongness, (b) internal attributions about the transgressing child, (c) perceptions of the transgressing child's hostile intent, (d) own expected negative post-transgression affect, and (e) perceived likelihood of responding to the transgression with discipline that displayed power assertion and/or induction. For moral transgressions (cruelty, dishonesty, hostility, or greed), mitigating information reduced caregiver expectations that they would feel negative affect and, subsequent to the transgression, use disciplinary strategies that display power assertion. These mitigating effects were smaller among at-risk caregivers than among low-risk caregivers. Moreover, when transgressions disobeyed a directive, among low-risk caregivers, mitigating information reduced the expectation that responses to transgressions would include inductive disciplinary strategies, but it did not do so among at-risk caregivers. In certain circumstances, compared to low-risk caregivers, at-risk caregivers expect to be relatively unaffected by transgression-mitigating information. These results suggest that interventions that increase an at-risk caregiver's ability to properly assess and integrate mitigating information may play a role in reducing the caregiver's risk of child physical abuse.

  9. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  10. Pharmacovigilance risk mitigation plans: action in public health to promote the safe use of medication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botelho, Stephanie Ferreira; Reis, Adriano Max Moreira

    2015-12-01

    Risk mitigation plans (RMP) are an innovative and important strategy for monitoring the sanitary risks of medication. The scope of the study was to identify RMPs for drugs registered with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the actions to minimize risks established by the Brazilian Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) and the manufacturers of these drugs. This is a quantitative and descriptive study including a survey together with the pharmaceutical industries and research on sites and databases of Anvisa, the FDA and pharmaceutical industries. Forty drugs with RMPs filed with the FDA were also registered with Anvisa. Only 4 laboratories (10f%) reported RMPs developed in Brazil. Safety information for 15 drugs (37.5%) were located on the Anvisa site. In 91.4% of Brazilian user package leaflets there is safety information equivalent to actions to promote safe use described in RMPs available on the FDA website. The actions of communication on drug safety and sanitary risk of drugs needs to be expanded by Anvisa. The RMP is an important strategy in public health for managing new risks, monitoring known risks and, especially, for promoting the safe use of medication.

  11. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hicks

    2013-12-01

    analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4 evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  12. Individual risk evaluation and interventions for mitigation in the transportation of hazardous goods: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rada Elena Cristina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The transport of hazardous substances is an economic activity essential for goods’ transference chain. However, the risk in transporting hazardous materials is related to the occur of accidents causing environmental damages and public health dangerous consequences. A quite recent Italian example is the Viareggio accident (2010, which involved a train with tank cars containing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG which caused more than thirty deaths. This paper describes the safety state in the Varese district (an area of northern Italy with a very high population density and industrial activities, with the aim at comparing the current situation (considering the risks due to the transportation of hazardous materials on the main motorways and main national roads with a potential scenario that introduces a few mitigating interventions, such as a partial conversion from road haulage to rail transport. This comparison can be accomplished by developing the existing intermodal platforms and implementing new ones in strategic areas.

  13. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  14. Using Robust Decision Making to Assess and Mitigate the Risks of Natural Hazards in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, N.; Lempert, R. J.; Peyraud, S.

    2012-12-01

    flood risk. Finally, it demonstrates how an adaptive management strategy that evolves over time and implements management options in response to new information can more effectively mitigate risks from natural disasters than can static policies.; A scatter plot of risk to the poor and non-poor in 1000 different scenarios under eight different risk management options (differentiated by color).

  15. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed.

  16. Bromo volcano area as human-environment system: interaction of volcanic eruption, local knowledge, risk perception and adaptation strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachri, Syamsul; Stötter, Johann; Sartohadi, Junun

    2013-04-01

    People in the Bromo area (located within Tengger Caldera) have learn to live with the threat of volcanic hazard since this volcano is categorized as an active volcano in Indonesia. During 2010, the eruption intensity increased yielding heavy ash fall and glowing rock fragments. A significant risk is also presented by mass movement which reaches areas up to 25 km from the crater. As a result of the 2010 eruption, 12 houses were destroyed, 25 houses collapsed and there were severe also effects on agriculture and the livestock sector. This paper focuses on understanding the interaction of Bromo volcanic eruption processes and their social responses. The specific aims are to 1) identify the 2010 eruption of Bromo 2) examine the human-volcano relationship within Bromo area in general, and 3) investigate the local knowledge related to hazard, risk perception and their adaptation strategies in specific. In-depth interviews with 33 informants from four districts nearest to the crater included local people and authorities were carried out. The survey focused on farmers, key persons (dukun), students and teachers in order to understand how people respond to Bromo eruption. The results show that the eruption in 2010 was unusual as it took continued for nine months, the longest period in Bromo history. The type of eruption was phreatomagmatic producing material dominated by ash to fine sand. This kind of sediment typically belongs to Tengger mountain eruptions which had produced vast explosions in the past. Furthermore, two years after the eruption, the interviewed people explained that local knowledge and their experiences with volcanic activity do not influence their risk perception. Dealing with this eruption, people in the Bromo area applied 'lumbung desa' (traditional saving systems) and mutual aid activity for surviving the volcanic eruption. Keywords: Human-environment system, local knowledge, risk perception, adaptation strategies, Bromo Volcano Indonesia

  17. Applications of nuclear safety probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear security for optimized risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, S.K.; Harvey, S.B. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Critical infrastructure assets such as nuclear power generating stations are potential targets for malevolent acts. Probabilistic methodologies can be applied to evaluate the real-time security risk based upon intelligence and threat levels. By employing this approach, the application of security forces and other protective measures can be optimized. Existing probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) methodologies and tools employed. in the nuclear industry can be adapted to security applications for this purpose. Existing PSA models can also be adapted and enhanced to consider total plant risk, due to nuclear safety risks as well as security risks. By creating a Probabilistic Security Model (PSM), safety and security practitioners can maximize the safety and security of the plant while minimizing the significant costs associated with security upgrades and security forces. (author)

  18. Structural Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Low- to Mid-Rise Residential Buildings in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasim A. Korkmaz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available China has experienced major earthquakes recently. The 2014 Ludian earthquake struck Ludian County, Yunnan, (Mw = 6.1 on 3 August, 2014. On April 20th 2013, Ya’an earthquake (Mw = 6.9, on April 14th 2010, Qinghai earthquake (Mw = 7.1, on July 9th 2009, Yunnan earthquake (Mw = 6.0, and on May 12th 2008, Sichuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9 struck China. Among these disasters, the most devastating, the Sichuan earthquake, resulted in the collapse of 5 million buildings and damage to more than 21 million. Human loss was also high with over 60,000 people dead, 360,000 injured, and more than 14 million people displaced. South-west China lies in an area that is prone to earthquakes. In 1970, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Yunnan with 15,000 lost. This study presents a detailed risk assessment for a structural risk assessment and mitigation for low- to mid-rise residential buildings for China. The risk assessment, through seismic hazard assessment approaches, evaluates the impact of the disasters for integrated structural health monitoring. Among the results of the investigation, relations and links between safety and risk are defined.

  19. Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    STEWART Mark G

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure,and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis,the procedure can be used to optimise blastmitigation strategies.The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which,when subjected to blast loading,has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants.Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios.The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling,glazing response and glazing failure criteria.Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building.The paper shows an illustrative exampie of how this information,when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria,can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

  20. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  1. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P R; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and - the notoriously unknown - physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  2. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  3. Alternatives to Crop Insurance for Mitigating Hydrologic Risk in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Gorski, G.; Wood, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    Corn and soybean production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin can be limited by either excess or shortage of water, often in the same year within the same watershed. Most producers indemnify themselves against these hazards through the Federal crop insurance program, which is heavily subsidized, thus discouraging expenditures on other forms of risk mitigation. The cost is not trivial, amounting to more than 60 billion USD over the past 15 years. Examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records at the 8-digit scale suggests that inter-annual hydrologic variability in the region is increasing, particularly in an area stretching from NW IL through much of IA and southern MN. Analysis of crop insurance statistics shows that these same watersheds exhibit the highest frequency of coincident claims for yield losses to both excess water and drought within the same year. An emphasis on development of water management strategies to increase landscape storage and subsequent reuse through supplemental irrigation in this region could reduce the cost of the crop insurance program and stabilize yield. However, we also note that analysis of yield data from USDA-NASS shows that interannual yield variability at the watershed scale is much more muted than the indemnity data suggest, indicating that adverse selection is probably a factor in the crop insurance marketplace. Consequently, we propose that hydrologic mitigation practices may be most cost-effective if they are carefully targeted, using topographic, soil, and meteorological data, in combination with more site-specificity in crop insurance data.

  4. Post-mitigation impact risk assessment for NASA's DART kinetic impactor mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; DART, AIM

    2016-10-01

    Field-testing kinetic impactors to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) is essential to better understand the challenges of future asteroid impact threat mitigation. The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment mission (AIDA, Cheng et al. 2016), a collaborative effort between NASA and ESA, offers a timely opportunity to validate kinetic impact deflection strategies. Although the main goal of NASA's kinetic impactor (DART) is to change the circumprimary orbit of (65803) Didymos' moonlet, the imparted momentum will also slightly change the heliocentric orbit of the whole binary asteroid system. Given the high degree of non-linearity of the near-Earth dynamical environment, however, even a small change in initial conditions can affect long term predictions of the encounter distances between Didymos and the Earth. Belonging to the dynamical class of PHAs, (65803) Didymos has several encounters with the Earth over the upcoming decades, some of which are closer than 20 lunar distances. In order to confirm that no planetary safety issues arise as a consequence of DART, we conducted a post-mitigation impact risk assessment (PMIRA, Eggl et al. 2015) for the currently foreseen DART impact trajectories. In this contribution we present the latest PMIRA results and discuss the role of ESA's AIM spacecraft in reducing uncertainties arising in the deflection process.

  5. Sentinel alert sounds the alarm on worker fatigue; hospitals urged to mitigate risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Noting that there is a documented link between worker fatigue and adverse events, the Joint Commission has issued a Sentinel Alert, urging health care organizations to focus on the issue and make sure that policies and procedures are in place to mitigate risks. Experts advise hospital leaders to monitor worker shifts and make sure that people are able to leave work as scheduled when their shifts have concluded. Limit health care workers to no more than three consecutive days of 12-hour shifts, especially if these shifts are at night. Scrutinize handoff procedures so that worker fatigue does not lead to errors during this potentially hazardous time. Make sure that distractions are at a minimum during these transitions, and that patient information is conveyed in both verbal and in written form.

  6. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier.

  7. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  8. Effect of Wind Intermittency on the Electric Grid: Mitigating the Risk of Energy Deficits

    CERN Document Server

    George, Sam O; Nguyen, Scott V

    2010-01-01

    Successful implementation of California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating 33 percent renewable energy generation by 2020 requires inclusion of a robust strategy to mitigate increased risk of energy deficits (blackouts) due to short time-scale (sub 1 hour) intermittencies in renewable energy sources. Of these RPS sources, wind energy has the fastest growth rate--over 25% year-over-year. If these growth trends continue, wind energy could make up 15 percent of California's energy portfolio by 2016 (wRPS15). However, the hour-to-hour variations in wind energy (speed) will create large hourly energy deficits that require installation of other, more predictable, compensation generation capacity and infrastructure. Compensating for the energy deficits of wRPS15 could potentially cost tens of billions in additional dollar-expenditure for fossil and / or nuclear generation capacity. There is a real possibility that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions will miss the California ...

  9. Enhancing sediment flux control and natural hazard risk mitigation through a structured conceptual planning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoni, S.; Vignoli, G.; Mazzorana, B.

    2017-08-01

    Sediment fluxes from mountain rivers contribute to shape the geomorphologic features of lowland rivers and to establish the physical basis for an optimal set of ecosystem functions and related services to people. Through significant public funding, the hydro-morphological regimes of mountain rivers in the European Alps have been progressively altered over the last century, with the aim to provide a safe dwelling space, to boost transport, mobility and to support economic growth. We claim that the underlying planning weaknesses contribute to determine these inefficient resource allocations, since flood risk is still high and the ecosystem services are far from being optimal. Hence, with the overall aim to enhance sediment flux control and hazard risk mitigation in such heavily modified alpine streams, we propose a structured design workflow which guides the planner through system analysis and synthesis. As a first step the proposed workflow sets the relevant planning goals and assesses the protection structure functionality. Then a methodology is proposed to achieve the goals. This methodology consists in characterising the hydrologic basin of interest and the sediment availability and determining the sediment connectivity to channels. The focus is set on the detailed analysis of existing river cross sections where the sediment continuity is interrupted (e.g. slit and check dams). By retaining relevant sediment volumes these structures prevent the reactivation of hydro-morphological and associated ecological functionalities. Since their actual performance can be unsatisfying with respect to flood risk mitigation (e.g. mainly old structures), we introduce specific efficiency indicators as a support for the conceptual design stage to quantify effects related to sediment flux control and risk management. The proposed planning approach is then applied to the Gadria system (stream, slit dam, retention basin and culvert), located in South Tyrol, Italy. This case study

  10. Volcanic risk metrics at Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand: some background to a probabilistic eruption forecasting scheme and a cost/benefit analysis at an open conduit volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, Gill; Sandri, Laura; Lindsay, Jan; Scott, Brad; Sherburn, Steve; Jolly, Art; Fournier, Nico; Keys, Harry; Marzocchi, Warner

    2010-05-01

    setting up BET_EF for Mt Ruapehu we are forced to define quantitatively what the background activity is. This will result in a quantitative evaluation of what changes in long time monitored parameters may influence the probability of future eruptions. The slopes of Mt Ruapehu host the largest ski area in North Island, New Zealand. Lahars have been generated as a result of several eruptions in the last 50 years, and some of these have reached the ski runs in a very short time frame (around 90 seconds from the beginning of the eruption). In the light of these potentially hazardous lahars, we use the output probabilities provided by BET_EF in a practical and rational decision scheme recently proposed by Marzocchi and Woo (2009) based on a cost/benefit analysis (CBA). In such scheme, a C/L ratio is computed, based on the costs (C) of practical mitigation actions to reduce risk (e.g., a public warning scheme and other means of raising awareness, and a call for a temporary and/or partial closure of the ski area) and on the potential loss (L) if no mitigation action is taken and an eruption occurs causing lahars down the ski fields. By comparing the probability of eruption-driven lahars and the C/L ratio, it is possible to define the most rational mitigation actions that can be taken to reduce the risk to skiers, snowboarders and staff on skifield. As BET_EF probability of eruption changes dynamically as updated monitoring data are received, the authorities can decide, at any specific point in time, what is the best action according to the current monitoring of the volcano. In this respect, CBA represents a bridge linking scientific output (probabilities) and Decision Makers (practical mitigation actions).

  11. Multidisciplinary approach to increasing Resilience in communities versus the hydrogeological and volcanic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avvisati, Gala; Colucci, Orazio; Marotta, Enrica; Masucci, Armando; Nave, Rosella; Peluso, Rosario; Tomasone, Mario

    2017-04-01

    A given area may be exposed to different natural hazards, such as landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic events etc. which could affect usual human activities at many levels. The goal of our work is to increase the resilience level in communities exposed to natural hazards through an innovative and multidisciplinary research approach integrating engineering, geological, medical and sociological skills. We are going to use an analytical approach to consider simultaneously the Natural Environment and their dwellers, taking into account the sanitary protocols. We'll start by studying the hazards to which the Natural Environment could be exposed evaluating the deriving risks level trough technical studies. For each scenario it's vital to assess the defining aspects such as magnitude and frequency, through a statistical analysis of the specific data-bases in possession of relevant Authorities in charge. Regarding the Inhabitants, it's also vital to analyse the dwellers Risk Perception and their Historical Resilience through a sociological and psychological approach, in order to define the specific information and education program on natural risks. This study is of particular relevance, as even the most advanced risk management plan could fail if locals are not aware and informed about it. A correct disaster management policy must consider the medics role as paramount. Emergency first aid and emergency medicine are to be considered specific field of partitioning, and to be seen as the most appropriate way to deal with a dire situation, especially when the resources vs. magnitude of event ratio is low. The study of best practices helping to improve the resilience and reaction of areas exposed to different natural hazards with different socio-cultural layers is hence crucial. A possible model is to directly involve the residents into controlling the environment and improving/detailing the risks' and emergency areas mapping. These make the population more aware of both

  12. Design of an expert system for mitigating trace element toxicity in cancer risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna Kumar, P T; Vinod, P T; Phoha, Vir V; Iyengar, S S; Iyengar, Puneeth

    2013-01-01

    Cancer risk management involves obliterating excess concentration of cancer causing trace elements by the natural immune system and hence intake of nutritious diet is of paramount importance. Human diet should consist of essential macronutrients that have to be consumed in large quantities and trace elements are to be consumed in very little amount. As some of these trace elements are causative factors for various types of cancer and build up at the expense of macronutrients, cancer risk management of these trace elements should be based on their initial concentration in the blood of each individual and not on their tolerable upper intake level. We propose an information theory based Expert System (ES) for estimating the lowest limit of toxicity association between the trace elements and the macronutrients. Such an estimate would enable the physician to prescribe required medication containing the macronutrients to annul the toxicity of cancer risk trace elements. The lowest limit of toxicity association is achieved by minimizing the correlated information of the concentration correlation matrix using the concept of Mutual Information (MI) and an algorithm based on a Technique of Determinant Inequalities (TDI) developed by the authors. The novelty of our ES is that it provides the lowest limit of toxicity profile for all trace elements in the blood not restricted to a group of compounds having similar structure. We demonstrate the superiority our algorithm over Principal Component Analysis in mitigating trace element toxicity in blood samples.

  13. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  14. A Risk-Based Strategy for Evaluating Mitigation Options for Process-Formed Compounds in Food: Workshop Proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Paul; Brorby, Gregory P; Krishan, Mansi

    2016-05-01

    Processing (eg, cooking, grinding, drying) has changed the composition of food throughout the course of human history; however, awareness of process-formed compounds, and the potential need to mitigate exposure to those compounds, is a relatively recent phenomenon. In May 2015, the North American Branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America) Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety held a workshop on the risk-based process for mitigation of process-formed compounds. This workshop aimed to gain alignment from academia, government, and industry on a risk-based process for proactively assessing the need for and benefit of mitigation of process-formed compounds, including criteria to objectively assess the impact of mitigation as well as research needed to support this process. Workshop participants provided real-time feedback on a draft framework in the form of a decision tree developed by the ILSI North America Technical Committee on Food and Chemical Safety to a panel of experts, and they discussed the importance of communicating the value of such a process to the larger scientific community and, ultimately, the public. The outcome of the workshop was a decision tree that can be used by the scientific community and could form the basis of a global approach to assessing the risks associated with mitigation of process-formed compounds.

  15. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Fournier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

  16. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

  17. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support

  18. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  19. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiv Shankar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  20. Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centofantia, Tiziana; McConnell, Laura L.; Chaney, Rufus L.; Beyer, W. Nelson; Andradea, Natasha A.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Torrents, Alba; Nguyen, Anh; Anderson, Marya O.; Novak, J. M.; Jackson, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues to Lumbricus terrestris L. relative to the unamended control soil was assessed using 4-L soil microcosms with and without plant cover in a 48-day experiment. The use of aged dairy manure compost and biosolids compost was found to be effective, especially in the planted treatments, at lowering the bioavailability factor (BAF) by 18–39%; however, BAF results for DDT in the unplanted soil treatments were unaffected or increased. The pine chip biochar utilized in this experiment was ineffective at lower the BAF of pesticides in the soil. The US EPA Soil Screening Level approach was used with our measured values. Addition of 10% of the aged dairy manure compost reduced the average hazard quotient values to below 1.0 for DDT + DDE and dieldrin. Results indicate this sustainable approach is appropriate to minimize risks to wildlife in areas of marginal organochlorine pesticide contamination. Application of this remediation approach has potential for use internationally in areas where historical pesticide contamination of soils remains a threat to wildlife populations.

  1. Seismic Microzonation Study in Tabriz Metropolitan City for Earthquake Risk Mitigation x

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebad Ghanbari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Azerbaijan is the site of convergent plate collisions along the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Brittle faults in the Azerbaijan area are mostly Cenozoic in or younger. The data presented demonstrate clearly that geological structures are commonly repeated at all scales from outcrop to regional. Several regional earthquakes have been strongly felt and caused damages in and around Tabriz during history. Urban seismic risk is increasing with population growth and encroachment of vulnerable built in environment into areas susceptible seismic hazard. Seismic -hazard assessment an estimate of ground motion at the site of interest, taking into account instrumental and historical earthquake records, information on tectonics, geology, and attenuation characteristics of seismic waves Tabriz is important industrial city of Iran. It has a very high population density about 2.000000 people in area just 90 km2 . The main objective of the Tabriz seismic instrumentation and microzonation study was to carry out and propose new building in Tabriz and suburbs in order to apply these criteria its development programs and determine the potential for damage to existing constructions during earthquake motions, and finally earthquake risk mitigation assessment.

  2. Unconventional oil and gas spills: Risks, mitigation priorities, and state reporting requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Lauren A.; Konschnik, Katherine E.; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O.; Kiesecker, Joseph M.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James

    2017-01-01

    Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2–16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m3. Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool (http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

  3. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  4. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater. PMID:25374935

  5. Supporting Technology at GRC to Mitigate Risk as Stirling Power Conversion Transitions to Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Jeffrey G.; Thieme, Lanny G.; Wong, Wayne A.

    2009-01-01

    Stirling power conversion technology has been reaching more advanced levels of maturity during its development for space power applications. The current effort is in support of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC), Sunpower Inc., and the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs) to convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. Of paramount importance is the reliability of the power system and as a part of this, the Stirling power convertors. GRC has established a supporting technology effort with tasks in the areas of reliability, convertor testing, high-temperature materials, structures, advanced analysis, organics, and permanent magnets. The project utilizes the matrix system at GRC to make use of resident experts in each of the aforementioned fields. Each task is intended to reduce risk and enhance reliability of the convertor as this technology transitions toward flight status. This paper will provide an overview of each task, outline the recent efforts and accomplishments, and show how they mitigate risk and impact the reliability of the ASC s and ultimately, the ASRG.

  6. Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

    2009-07-01

    Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

  7. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  8. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

  9. Influence of regulatory uncertainty on capacity investments – Are investments in new technologies a risk mitigation measure?

    OpenAIRE

    Schwark, Bastian

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the investment decisions of power companies is vital for a regulator as particularly deficient investments in generation capacity could jeopardize the market in the long run. Considering potential risks that could hamper investments, the paper focuses on regulatory uncertainty and firms’ behavior to mitigate risk. The question of how uncertainty influences investment decisions has been explained by a number of researchers. In the specific case of regulatory uncertainty it is ag...

  10. An examination of the resettlement program at Mayon Volcano: what can we learn for sustainable volcanic risk reduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usamah, Muhibuddin; Haynes, Katharine

    2012-05-01

    This paper investigates a resettlement program for communities impacted by volcanic hazards from Mayon volcano in the Philippines. Two resettlement sites are selected, the first FVR-FNM village (named after President Fidel V. Ramos and Mayor Florencio N. Munoz) was settled after the 1993 eruption. The second, Bungkaras Village, was settled after the 2006 eruption and associated typhoon Reming lahar event. These two sites were selected in order to explore the process of relocation over the short and longer term, although the main focus of the study is in the more recently settled Bungkaras Village. The overall aim is to determine if exposure to volcanic hazards has decreased without adding to vulnerability through loss of livelihood, community and culture, and exposure to new risks. A mixed method qualitative approach was utilized including semistructured interviews, participant observations, and a participatory workshop. This enabled an in-depth understanding of life and the challenges faced at the resettlement sites vis-à-vis the original settlements. In order to document the process of site selection, planning, and building, semistructured interviews were conducted with key government officials, emergency managers, and donors of the resettlement projects. This research demonstrates that a volcanic resettlement program must be directed by meaningful consultation with the impacted community who also share in the decision making. Successful resettlement must consider aspects of livelihood security, house design, and the availability of public and lifeline facilities.

  11. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

    2015-03-01

    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented.

  12. Laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy does not completely mitigate increased perioperative risks in elderly patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, May C; Croome, Kristopher P; Shubert, Christopher R; Farnell, Michael B; Truty, Mark J; Que, Florencia G; Reid-Lombardo, KMarie; Smoot, Rory L; Nagorney, David M; Kendrick, Michael L

    2015-01-01

    Background Elderly patients undergoing open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD) are at increased risk for surgical morbidity and mortality. Whether totally laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (TLPD) mitigates these risks has not been evaluated. Methods A retrospective review of outcomes in patients submitted to pancreatoduodenectomy during 2007–2014 was conducted (n = 860). Outcomes in elderly patients (aged ≥70 years) were compared with those in non-elderly patients with respect to risk-adjusted postoperative morbidity and mortality. Differences in outcomes between patients submitted to OPD and TLPD, respectively, were evaluated in the elderly subgroup. Results In elderly patients, the incidences of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 3.21, P < 0.001), respiratory events (OR 1.68, P = 0.04), delayed gastric emptying (DGE) (OR 1.73, P = 0.003), increased length of stay (LoS, 1 additional day) (P < 0.001), discharge disposition other than home (OR 8.14, P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 1.48, P = 0.05) were greater than in non-elderly patients. Morbidity and mortality did not differ between the OPD and TLPD subgroups of elderly patients. In elderly patients, OPD was associated with increased DGE (OR 1.80, P = 0.03), LoS (1 additional day; P < 0.001) and blood transfusion (OR 2.89, P < 0.001) compared with TLPD. Conclusions Elderly patients undergoing TLPD experience rates of mortality, morbidity and cardiorespiratory events similar to those in patients submitted to OPD. In elderly patients, TLPD offers benefits by decreasing DGE, LoS and blood transfusion requirements. PMID:26294338

  13. Ground Data System Risk Mitigation Techniques for Faster, Better, Cheaper Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catena, John J.; Saylor, Rick; Casasanta, Ralph; Weikel, Craig; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    With the advent of faster, cheaper, and better missions, NASA Projects acknowledged that a higher level of risk was inherent and accepted with this approach. It was incumbent however upon each component of the Project whether spacecraft, payload, launch vehicle, or ground data system to ensure that the mission would nevertheless be an unqualified success. The Small Explorer (SMEX) program's ground data system (GDS) team developed risk mitigation techniques to achieve these goals starting in 1989. These techniques have evolved through the SMEX series of missions and are practiced today under the Triana program. These techniques are: (1) Mission Team Organization--empowerment of a closeknit ground data system team comprising system engineering, software engineering, testing, and flight operations personnel; (2) Common Spacecraft Test and Operational Control System--utilization of the pre-launch spacecraft integration system as the post-launch ground data system on-orbit command and control system; (3) Utilization of operations personnel in pre-launch testing--making the flight operations team an integrated member of the spacecraft testing activities at the beginning of the spacecraft fabrication phase; (4) Consolidated Test Team--combined system, mission readiness and operations testing to optimize test opportunities with the ground system and spacecraft; and (5). Reuse of Spacecraft, Systems and People--reuse of people, software and on-orbit spacecraft throughout the SMEX mission series. The SMEX ground system development approach for faster, cheaper, better missions has been very successful. This paper will discuss these risk management techniques in the areas of ground data system design, implementation, test, and operational readiness.

  14. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  15. Angular Impact Mitigation system for bicycle helmets to reduce head acceleration and risk of traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kirk; Dau, Nathan; Feist, Florian; Deck, Caroline; Willinger, Rémy; Madey, Steven M; Bottlang, Michael

    2013-10-01

    Angular acceleration of the head is a known cause of traumatic brain injury (TBI), but contemporary bicycle helmets lack dedicated mechanisms to mitigate angular acceleration. A novel Angular Impact Mitigation (AIM) system for bicycle helmets has been developed that employs an elastically suspended aluminum honeycomb liner to absorb linear acceleration in normal impacts as well as angular acceleration in oblique impacts. This study tested bicycle helmets with and without AIM technology to comparatively assess impact mitigation. Normal impact tests were performed to measure linear head acceleration. Oblique impact tests were performed to measure angular head acceleration and neck loading. Furthermore, acceleration histories of oblique impacts were analyzed in a computational head model to predict the resulting risk of TBI in the form of concussion and diffuse axonal injury (DAI). Compared to standard helmets, AIM helmets resulted in a 14% reduction in peak linear acceleration (pbicycle helmet, and may enhance prevention of bicycle-related TBI. Further research is required.

  16. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  17. Scientific Opinion on animal health risk mitigation treatments as regards imports of animal casings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available

    Salting with NaCl for 30 days is a well-established and accepted procedure in the casings industry and it has been the standard animal health risk mitigation treatment prescribed in EU legislation for many years. This opinion reviews (i improvements in the NaCl treatment that would lead to an increased level of safety to avoid transmission of animal pathogens, (ii alternative treatments that could have been developed giving equivalent or better results in the inactivation of relevant pathogens, and (iii provides an assessment of the phosphate-salt treatment recommended by OIE for foot and mouth disease virus, in particular if it could be considered safe as regards the elimination of other animal pathogens. The rate of inactivation of viruses was highly dependent on temperature for both NaCl and phosphate-NaCl treatment. Treatment with phosphate-NaCl mixture leads to faster inactivation than treatment with NaCl salt alone. Brucella species are readily inactivated by NaCl salting, but mycobacteriamay survive beyond 30 days in intestines in conditions similar to those used for salting of casings. It is recommended that casings should be treated at 20 °C for 30 days to achieve effective inactivation of animal pathogens. Several other treatments have been applied to casings with the aim of inactivating infectious agents, but none of them have been extensively investigated with viruses relevant for animal health.

  18. International approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff in mitigating flood and environmental risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballard Bridget Woods

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares and contrasts a number of international approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff from new development and redevelopment, known as sustainable drainage systems (SuDS or low impact development (LID. The paper provides a commentary on the progress and current status of national standards for SuDS in the UK to control the frequency, flow rate and volume of runoff from both frequent and extreme rainfall events, and the best practice design criteria presented in the revised UK CIRIA SuDS Manual, published in November 2015. The paper then compares these design criteria and standards with those developed and applied in China, USA, France and Germany and also looks at the drivers behind their development. The benefits of these different approaches are assessed in the context of flood risk mitigation, climate resilience and wider environmental protection objectives, including water quality, morphology and ecology. The paper also reviews the design approaches promoted by the new SuDS Manual and internationally for delivering additional benefits for urban spaces (such as recreation, visual character, education and economic growth through multi-functional urban design.

  19. Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions.

  20. Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Robert; Cruz, Angela; Bors, Karen

    2004-01-01

    Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

  1. Short-term Reservoir Optimization by Stochastic Optimization for Mitigation Downstream Flood Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanenberg, Dirk; Assis Dos Reis, Alberto; Kuwajima, Julio; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Mainardi Fan, Fernando

    2014-05-01

    An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage capacities, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components for assessing optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to stochastic optimization procedures based on the non-adaptive Sample Average Approximation (SAA) approach and an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization with underlying scenario trees. These techniques are used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. The framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Três Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2, an installed capacity of 396 MW and operation restrictions due to downstream flood risk. The focus of our discussion is the impact of sparsely available ground data, forecast uncertainty and its consideration in the optimization procedure. We compare the performance of the above mentioned optimization techniques and conclude the superiority of the stochastic methods.

  2. The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai'i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, B.F.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.

    2004-01-01

    Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai'i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Huala??lai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults ( n =462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Huala??lai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an 'unrealistic optimism bias' and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as

  3. Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation

  4. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2009-07-01

    rate.



    Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions: not only are they socially and technically attainable, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labor force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but they are also economically sustainable.

  5. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    , using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

    Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

  6. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-07-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a

  7. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-02-01

    regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live) interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but also economically sustainable.

  8. The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program: Working with International Partners to Reduce the Risk from Volcanic Eruptions Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayberry, G. C.; Pallister, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) is a joint effort between USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). OFDA leads and coordinates disaster responses overseas for the U.S. government and is a unique stakeholder concerned with volcano disaster risk reduction as an international humanitarian assistance donor. One year after the tragic eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in 1985, OFDA began funding USGS to implement VDAP. VDAP's mission is to reduce the loss of life and property and limit the economic impact from foreign volcano crises, thereby preventing such crises from becoming disasters. VDAP fulfills this mission and complements OFDA's humanitarian assistance by providing crisis response, capacity-building, technical training, and hazard assessments to developing countries before, during, and after eruptions. During the past 30 years, VDAP has responded to more than 27 major volcanic crises, built capacity in 12+ countries, and helped counterparts save tens of thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in property. VDAP responses have evolved as host-country capabilities have grown, but the pace of work has not diminished; as a result of VDAP's work at 27 volcanoes in fiscal year 2014, more than 1.3 million people who could have been impacted by volcanic activity benefitted from VDAP assistance, 11 geological policies were modified, 188 scientists were trained, and several successful eruption forecasts were made. VDAP is developing new initiatives to help counterparts monitor volcanoes and communicate volcanic risk. These include developing the Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) to learn from compiled crisis data from 30 years of VDAP responses, creating event trees to forecast eruptions at restless volcanoes, and exploring the use of unmanned aerial systems for monitoring. The use of these new methods, along with traditional VDAP assistance, has improved VDAP

  9. Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Habib, Shahid; da Silva, Arlindo; Hughes, Eric; Yang, Kai; Brentzel, Kelvin; Seftor, Colin; Li, Jason Y.; Schneider, David; Guffanti, Marianne; Hoffman, Robert L.; Myers, Tim; Tamminen, Johanna; Hassinen, Seppo

    2014-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions can inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, posing a substantial risk to aviation safety. Ingesting near-real time and Direct Readout satellite volcanic cloud data is vital for improving reliability of volcanic ash forecasts and mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation and the economy. NASA volcanic products from the Ozone Monitoring Insrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite have been incorporated into Decision Support Systems of many operational agencies. With the Aura mission approaching its 10th anniversary, there is an urgent need to replace OMI data with those from the next generation operational NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The data provided from these instruments are being incorporated into forecasting models to provide quantitative ash forecasts for air traffic management. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the volcanic near-real time and Direct Readout data products from the new Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite (OMPS) ultraviolet sensor onboard SNPP for monitoring and forecasting volcanic clouds. The transition of NASA data production to our operational partners is outlined. Satellite observations are used to constrain volcanic cloud simulations and improve estimates of eruption parameters, resulting in more accurate forecasts. This is demonstrated for the 2012 eruption of Copahue. Volcanic eruptions are modeled using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. A hindcast of the disruptive eruption from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull is used to estimate aviation re-routing costs using Metron Aviation's ATM Tools.

  10. "Canary Islands, a volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean": a 7 year effort of public awareness on volcano hazards and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Fátima; Calvo, David; Pérez, Nemesio M.; Padrón, Eleazar; Melián, Gladys; Padilla, Germán; Barrancos, José; Hernández, Pedro A.; Asensio-Ramos, María; Alonso, Mar

    2016-04-01

    "Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" is an educational program born from the need to inform and educate citizens residing in the Canary Islands on the various hazards associated to volcanic phenomena. The Canary Islands is the only territory of Spain that hosts active volcanism, as is shown by the 16 historical eruptions that have occurred throughout this territory, being the last one a submarine eruption taking place on October 12, 2011, offshore El Hierro Island. In the last 7 years, ITER as well as INVOLCAN have been performing an educative program focused on educating to the population about the benefits of a volcanic territory, volcanic hazards, how to reduce volcanic risk and the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands. "Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" consists of three units, the first two dedicated to the IAVCEI/UNESCO videos "Understanding Volcanic Hazards" and "Reducing Volcanic Risk" and the third one dedicated to the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands, as well as some other aspects of the volcanic phenomena. Generally the three units are shown consecutively on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This educative program has been roaming all around the 88 municipalities of the archipelago since this initiative started in 2008. The total number of attendees since then amounts to 18,911 people. The increase of assistance was constant until 2011, with annual percentages of 7.8, 17.1 and 20.9 respectively, regarding to ratio assistant/municipality. Despite the heterogeneity of the audience, the main audience is related to aged people of 45 years and older. This could be related to the memories of the recent eruptions occurred at La Palma Island in 1949 and 1971. It is important to point out that many of those people attending the educative program are representatives of local government (i.e. civil protection). Regarding the interest of the audience, the educational program attendees have

  11. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

    2017-04-01

    In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

  12. Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alix, A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

  13. A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcorn, Rebecca; Panter, Kurt S.; Gorsevski, Pece V.

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic hazard tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows and to assess the social and economic vulnerabilities of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fallout deposits originating from the El Cajete crater within the Valles Caldera, Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011). The change in the axial orientation of fallout deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at a second vent location determined from probability distributions of structural features. The resulting hazard simulation maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fallout, PDCs and lava flows, indicating areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk.

  14. A conceptual model of geological risk in the Ischia Island (Italy): highlights on volcanic history, seismicity and flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlino, Stefano; Cubellis, Elena; Iannuzzi, Raffaello; Luongo, Giuseppe

    2010-05-01

    During the last eight centuries the island of Ischia was hit by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and floods producing heavy damages and numerous fatalities. Since the last twenty century the Ischia population is grown very fast, nowadays more than 56.000 people live in the island and 4 million of people visit it during the year, thus this area is characterised as an high geological risk territory. The island is here presented as an interesting "laboratory" for volcanic, seismic and hydrogeological risks assessment, from which to draw lessons for planning in risk areas. Ischia is a volcanic field, formed by the succession of effusive and explosive eruptions which formed lavas, welded and loose pyroclastic rocks. The succession of rock layers, with different permeability, promotes, during heavy rainfall, the formation of flows with high kinetic energy, which can produce devastating landslides. In this context, the remarkable development of settlements in the island, occurred in recent times, and the lack of planning that bring attention to the vulnerability of the area, have produced an exponential risk increase. Eruptions, earthquakes, flooding occurred in the island of Ischia in the past, have produced a wealth literature about catastrophic natural events. In general, the accounts of the events were recorded by various means, such as: newspaper, property disputes, historical and sociological analysis, poetic or artistic works, scientific analysis. As regard volcanism, earthquakes, tsunamis, there are myths, legends, historical documents, archaeological findings and results of recent surveys. Documented descriptions of historical eruptive events are only available for the last eruption of 1301-1302, while there are records for eruptive events in the early centuries of the Christian Age. More comprehensive accounts are available about historical seismicity. Information and documentations are available since the 1228 earthquake. However, more detailed and useful

  15. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

  16. RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility

  17. Application of Chance-Constrained Stochastic Optimization for Mitigating Downstream Flood Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Assis dos Reis, Alberto

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting is a growing field in the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. The assessment of uncertainty over the prediction horizon provides added value to the operational flow forecasting system. It provides probabilistic inflow forecasts which, combined with decision support systems, determine optimum release strategies. One way of doing this is through scenario tree-based stochastic optimization. The representation of the ensemble forecasted is converted into a scenario-tree and optimized based on an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization. Typical inequality constraints applied over this problem require a full compliance of each ensemble's trajectory and neglect the uncertainty distribution. We propose the application of chance constrained optimization to overcome such problem, allowing a more flexible approach that does not depend on the number of ensembles but rather on the distribution of uncertainty. This technique is used to compute release trajectories of the reservoirs over a finite forecast horizon of up to 14 days by integrating a nonlinear gradient-based optimization algorithm and a model of the water system. The latter consists of simulation components for pool routing and kinematic or diffusive wave models for the downstream river reaches including a simulation mode and a reverse adjoint mode for the efficient computation of first-order derivatives. This framework has been implemented for a reservoir system operated by the Brazilian Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais S.A. (CEMIG). We present results obtained for the operation of the Tres Marias reservoir in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais with a catchment area of near 55,000 km2. The focus of our discussion is the impact of chance constrains on the optimization procedure and its flexibility for extending the number of ensemble forecasts thus providing a more accurate representation of uncertainty. We compare the

  18. Observational Studies of Earthquake Preparation and Generation to Mitigate Seismic Risks in Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrheim, R. J.; Ogasawara, H.; Nakatani, M.; Milev, A.; Cichowicz, A.; Kawakata, H.; Yabe, Y.; Murakami, O.; Naoi, M. M.; Moriya, H.; Satoh, T.

    2011-12-01

    We provide a status report on a 5-year project to monitor in-situ fault instability and strong motion in South African gold mines. The project has two main aims: (1) To learn more about earthquake preparation and generation mechanisms by deploying dense arrays of high-sensitivity sensors within rock volumes where mining is likely to induce significant seismic activity. (2) To upgrade the South African national surface seismic network in the mining districts. This knowledge will contribute to efforts to upgrade schemes of seismic hazard assessment and to limit and mitigate the seismic risks in deep mines. As of 31 July 2011, 46 boreholes totalling 1.9 km in length had been drilled at project sites at Ezulwini, Moab-Khotsong and Driefontein gold mines. Several dozen more holes are still to be drilled. Acoustic emission sensors, strain- and tiltmeters, and controlled seismic sources are being installed to monitor the deformation of the rock mass, the accumulation of damage during the preparation phase, and changes in dynamic stress as the rupture front propagates. These data will be integrated with measurements of stope closure, stope strong motion, seismic data recorded by the mine-wide network, and stress modelling. Preliminary results will be reported at AGU meeting. The project is endorsed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the South African government. It is funded by the JST-JICA program for Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable development (SATREPS, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the Council for Geoscience, the University of the Witwatersrand and the Department of Science and Technology. The contributions of Seismogen CC, OHMS Ltd, AnglogoldAshanti Rock Engineering Applied Research Group, First Uranium, the Gold Fields Seismic Department and the Institute of Mine Seismology are gratefully acknowledged.

  19. The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeg, O.

    Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

  20. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  1. Computation of Material Demand in the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-01

    Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process Eleanor L. Schwartz James S. Thomason, Project Leader INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES 4850 Mark Center Drive Alexandria...the Risk Assessment and Mitigation Framework for Strategic Materials (RAMF-SM) Process Eleanor L. Schwartz James S. Thomason, Project Leader iii...Inter-industry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM), College Park , MD, 2001. Meade, Douglas S., et al. ILIAD. Inter-industry

  2. FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES* Farmers’ Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults

    OpenAIRE

    DOVER, SALLY E.; Buys, David R.; ALLOCCA, SALLY; Locher, Julie L.

    2013-01-01

    Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population.

  3. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  4. The ICDP-CFDDP Project: Understanding caldera dynamics and mitigating the extreme risk of the most urbanised volcano in the World

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Carlino, Stefano; Somma, Renato; Piochi, Monica; Di Vito, Mauro; Isaia, Roberto; De Vita, Sandro; Sacchi, Marco; Josè Jurado, Maria; Wiersberg, Thomas; Kueck, Jochem; Molisso, Flavia; Erzinger, Joerge; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Gudmundsson, Agust; Burg, Jean Pierre; Zappone, Alba; Hill, David P.

    2013-04-01

    The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project (CFDDP) entered the operative phase during the second half of 2012, with the pilot hole drilling. The Project was initiated to address two kinds of problems: 1) purely volcanological, to understand in detail the dynamics of the most explosive and yet mostly unknown volcanism on the Earth with the potential to generate global catastrophes, and 2) to mitigate the highest volcanic risk in the World, namely the one associated with the metropolitan area of Naples where more than 3,000,000 people are exposed to extreme risk. The CFDDP Project offers the only direct means to understand the physics driving the on-going ground uplift affecting the area since at least six centuries, through in situ and laboratory measurements of rock rheology and permeability. In particular, direct investigation at depth by drilling is essential for understanding the extent that shallow magma intrusion is involved in the uplift of 15 to 20 m accumulated over the last centuries. Such a high cumulative uplift corresponds to 1-10 km3 of new magma intruded into the system, depending on details of the model used. Such an erupted volume should be conservatively assumed as the worst scenario for a future eruption. This corresponds to a massive eruption, largest than any other one after the caldera-forming Yellow Tuff eruption of 15,000 y BP and not much smaller than that, which would anyway require evacuation of some millions people. An alternative possibility is that the cumulative uplift is mostly due to shallow geothermal perturbations as described in several recent publications. Both possibilities, each with widely differing hazard implications, rely strongly on as yet poorly known conditions at depth beneath the caldera. It is thus crucial to discriminate between these two opposing possibilities in order to clarify the worst scenario for a future eruption and to provide an invaluable tool for civil defence at this densely populated area. This

  5. Evaluation of Risk from Volcanic Ashfalls at the Los Tuxtlas Region, Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espindola, J. M.; Godinez, M. L.; Zamora-Camacho, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Los Tuxtlas region is an area in the eastern Mexican State of Veracruz, located over the Tuxtla volcanic field and surroundings. This field is composed of 353 distinct cones, 4 large composite volcanoes, and 42 maars. Eruptive activity in the TVF began in the late Miocene, underwent a quiescent period approximately 2.6-0.8 Ma, and continues into historic times with the most recent eruptions occurring at San Martín Tuxtla volcano in 1640 and 1793. Due to the historical occurrence of these eruptions, the volcano is considered hazardous. Although no casualties were derived from those eruptions, the population in the area has grown at a fast pace and a similar eruption occurring today would cause enormous social problems. According to INEGI, the country's organism in charge of demographic studies, there are some 200,000 people settled 20 km around the volcano. Furthermore, since the volcanic field is basaltic, the magma's transfer time from depth to surface is short, and volcanic eruptions such as that of 1793 occur without much warning time. These aspects point out to the need for an estimation of the effects of a similar eruption in our days. Espindola et al. (2010; JVGR, 197, 188-208) estimated the isopachs of the ash deposited during that eruption of 1793; we used these isopachs to the 1 cm contour to evaluate some of those effects. The 1 cm isopach spans an area of 541 km2 of which 385 km2 is grazing lands and plantations, more than 149 km2 are covered by dense vegetation and 5 km2 are occupied by settlements of various sizes. There are about 34 km of paved roads that are also the main communication access to the southern State of Veracruz. These figures are a basis for the estimation of the cost of the assistance to the region in case of an eruption and the elaboration of plan of contingency in case of eruption.

  6. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  7. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

    2014-03-01

    This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

  8. Risk mitigation by waste-based permeable reactive barriers for groundwater pollution control at e-waste recycling sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beiyuan, Jingzi; Tsang, Daniel C W; Yip, Alex C K; Zhang, Weihua; Ok, Yong Sik; Li, Xiang-Dong

    2017-02-01

    Permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) have proved to be a promising passive treatment to control groundwater contamination and associated human health risks. This study explored the potential use of low-cost adsorbents as PRBs media and assessed their longevity and risk mitigation against leaching of acidic rainfall through an e-waste recycling site, of which Cu, Zn, and Pb were the major contaminants. Batch adsorption experiments suggested a higher adsorption capacity of inorganic industrial by-products [acid mine drainage sludge (AMDS) and coal fly ash (CFA)] and carbonaceous recycled products [food waste compost (FWC) and wood-derived biochar] compared to natural inorganic minerals (limestone and apatite). Continuous leaching tests of sand columns with 10 wt% low-cost adsorbents were then conducted to mimic the field situation of acidic rainfall infiltration through e-waste-contaminated soils (collected from Qingyuan, China) by using synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) solution. In general, Zn leached out first, followed by Cu, and finally delayed breakthrough of Pb. In the worst-case scenario (e.g., at initial concentrations equal to 50-fold of average SPLP result), the columns with limestone, apatite, AMDS, or biochar were effective for a relatively short period of about 20-40 pore volumes of leaching, after which Cu breakthrough caused non-cancer risk concern and later-stage Pb leaching considerably increased both non-cancer and lifetime cancer risk associated with portable use of contaminated water. In contrast, the columns with CFA or FWC successfully mitigated overall risks to an acceptable level for a prolonged period of 100-200 pore volumes. Therefore, with proper selection of low-cost adsorbents (or their mixture), waste-based PRBs is a technically feasible and economically viable solution to mitigate human health risk due to contaminated groundwater at e-waste recycling sites.

  9. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj

  10. Hyper-velocity impact risk assessment and mitigation strategies in the context of future X-ray astronomy missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perinati, Emanuele; Rott, Martin; Santangelo, Andrea; Tenzer, Chris

    2017-06-01

    Future X-ray astronomy missions will be based on instruments with apertures much larger than those used up to now. Therefore, the risk posed by hyper-velocity dust grains in the space environment to the onboard instrumentation will increase, especially when a larger aperture is combined with a longer focal length. Starting from the lessons learned from the XMM and Swift satellites, we review the question of hyper-velocity impacts and discuss the expected impact-rate, risk of damage and possible mitigation strategies in the context of LOFT, eROSITA and ATHENA.

  11. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States). Dept. of Mathematical Sciences

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  12. The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Saile, Lynn; Freire de Carvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be

  13. Automated, reproducible delineation of zones at risk from inundation by large volcanic debris flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Steve P.; Iverson, Richard M.

    1997-01-01

    Large debris flows can pose hazards to people and property downstream from volcanoes. We have developed a rapid, reproducible, objective, and inexpensive method to delineate distal debris-flow hazard zones. Our method employs the results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry of volcanic debris flows (lahars) to predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume. We use a range of specified lahar volumes to evaluate A and B. In a Geographic Information System (GIS) we employ the resulting range of predicted A and B to delineate gradations in inundation hazard, which is highest near the volcano and along valley thalwegs and diminishes as distances from the volcano and elevations above valley floors increase. Comparison of our computer-generated hazard maps with those constructed using traditional, field-based methods indicates that our method can provide an accurate means of delineating lahar hazard zones.

  14. Dissemination of well water arsenic results to homeowners in Central Maine: Influences on mitigation behavior and continued risks for exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, Sara V.; Marvinney, Robert G.; Johnston, Robert A.; Yang, Qiang; Zheng, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Private wells in the United States are unregulated for drinking water standards and are the homeowner’s responsibility to test and treat. Testing for water quality parameters such as arsenic (As) is a crucial first step for homeowners to take protective actions. This study seeks to identify key behavioral factors influencing homeowners’ decisions to take action after receiving well As test results. A January 2013 survey of central Maine households (n=386, 73% response) who were notified 3–7 years earlier that their well water contained As above 10 μg/L found that 43% of households report installing As treatment systems. Another 30% report taking other mitigation actions such as drinking bottled water because of the As, but the remaining 27% of households did not act. Well water As level appears to be a motivation for mitigation: 31% of households with well water level between 10 and 50 μg/L did not act, compared to 13% of households with well water > 50 μg/L. Belief that the untreated water is not safe to drink (risk) and that reducing drinking water As would increase home value (instrumental attitude) were identified as significant predictors of mitigating As. Mitigating As exposure is associated with less worry about the As level (affective attitude), possibly because those acting to reduce exposure feel less worried about As. Use of a treatment system specifically was significantly predicted by confidence that one can maintain a treatment system, even if there are additional costs (self-efficacy). An assessment of As treatment systems used by 68 of these households with well water As >10 μg/L followed up with in August-November 2013 found that 15% of treatment units failed to produce water below As 10 μg/L, suggesting there are continued risks for exposure even after the decision is made to treat. PMID:24726512

  15. Geologic carbon sequestration as a global strategy to mitigate CO2 emissions: Sustainability and environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, C.M.

    2011-04-01

    when low-carbon energy is considered cheap enough to replace fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one such bridging technology (1). CCS has been the focus of an increasing amount of research over the last 15-20 years and is the subject of a comprehensive IPCC report that thoroughly covers the subject (1). CCS is currently being carried out in several countries around the world in conjunction with natural gas extraction (e.g., 2, 3) and enhanced oil recovery (17). Despite this progress, widespread deployment of CCS remains the subject of research and future plans rather than present action on the scale needed to mitigate emissions from the perspective of climate change. The reasons for delay in deploying CCS more widely are concerns about cost (18), regulatory and legal uncertainty (19), and potential environmental impacts (21). This chapter discusses the long-term (decadal) sustainability and environmental hazards associated with the geologic CO{sub 2} storage (GCS) component of large-scale CCS (e.g., 20). Discussion here barely touches on capture and transport of CO{sub 2} which will occur above ground and which are similar to existing engineering, chemical processing, and pipeline transport activities and are therefore easier to evaluate with respect to risk assessment and feasibility. The focus of this chapter is on the more uncertain part of CCS, namely geologic storage. The primary concern for sustainability of GCS is whether there is sufficient capacity in sedimentary basins worldwide to contain the large of amounts of CO{sub 2} needed to address climate change. But there is also a link between sustainability and environmental impacts. Specifically, if GCS is found to cause unacceptable impacts that are considered worse than its climate-change mitigation benefits, the approach will not be widely adopted. Hence, GCS has elements of sustainability insofar as capacity of the subsurface for CO{sub 2} is concerned, and also in terms of whether the

  16. Risks and Mitigating Factors in Decisions to Accept Students with Criminal Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodersen, Miriam; Swick, Danielle; Richman, Jack

    2009-01-01

    Social work educators have few guidelines to help them evaluate master's of social work applicants with criminal records. This study surveyed 280 field supervisors and asked them to rate their likelihood of rejecting a student with a criminal record depending on crime type and mitigating factors. Results found that supervisors' perception of risk…

  17. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic : modeling the risks and health-economic impacts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Milne, George; Nelson, E. Anthony S.; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P.

    2010-01-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic infl

  18. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  19. Hard Sludge Formation in Modern Steam Generators of Nuclear Power Plants Formation, Risks and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strohmer, F.

    2013-07-01

    This article will discuss the physical and chemical reasons for the increased tendency to form hard sludge on the secondary side of modern nuclear steam generators (SG). The mechanism of hard sludge induced denting will be explained. Moreover, advice on operation and maintenance to mitigate hard sludge formation and denting damages will be presented.

  20. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  1. Intelligent system for risk mitigation Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available the accumulation of experiences in project design, and the emergence of standards organizations and engaged in planning and administration of the same, have allowed their development has become an activity planned and controlled. Risk management during the life cycle of software development is a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

    La acumulación de experiencias en la concepción de proyectos, el surgimiento de organizaciones y estándares dedicados a la planificación y administración de los mismos, han permitido que su desarrollo se haya convertido en una actividad planificada y controlada. La gestión de riesgos es un proceso complejo estrechamente vinculado al dominio que tenga el equipo de desarrollo sobre el tema. De su correcta gestión dependerán gran parte de los resultados, teniendo en cuenta las ventajas que tanto tecnológicas como económicas reportará para el equipo de desarrollo la mitigación de los mismos. Los riesgos han de analizarse para propiciar el

  2. Sistema Inteligente de Mitigación de Riesgos Intelligent system for risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadira Ruiz Constanten

    2012-09-01

    a complex process closely linked to the domain with the development team on the subject. In its correct management will depend largely on the results, taking into account both technological advantages for the team will bring economic development, mitigating them. To have a tool that automates this, streamline the decision-making process, is essential. In Artificial Intelligence there are different knowledge-based techniques that allow solution of problems in different ways. One of the most common techniques is knowledge Based Systems, which are computer systems that use domain knowledge to solve problems pertaining to this. This solution is essentially the same as that obtained by a person experienced in the problem domain. It is of great importance to use the advantages provided by this type of systems for developing applications to streamline the process of managing risks. To this will be discussed in this article, showing that facilitates the use of minimal resources and higher quality.

  3. Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

    1996-01-01

    An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

  4. Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2016-01-01

    Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

  5. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  6. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-02-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

  7. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  8. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    PETRONE, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua.


    ...

  9. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    OpenAIRE

    PETRONE, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-01-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on the autochthonal plants suitable for these kinds of interventions and on the economic efficiency of the interventions is essential for the dissemination of such techniques. The present paper is focused on these two issues as related to the realization of various typologies of soil bioengineering works in the humid tropics ...

  10. Palaeoclimate: Volcanism caused ancient global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, Katrin J.; Bralower, Timothy J.

    2017-08-01

    A study confirms that volcanism set off one of Earth's fastest global-warming events. But the release of greenhouse gases was slow enough for negative feedbacks to mitigate impacts such as ocean acidification. See Letter p.573

  11. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  12. Thermal study of payload module for the next-generation infrared space telescope SPICA in risk mitigation phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinozaki, Keisuke; Sato, Yoichi; Sawada, Kenichiro; Ando, Makiko; Sugita, Hiroyuki; Yamawaki, Toshihiko; Mizutani, Tadahito; Komatsu, Keiji; Okazaki, Shun; Ogawa, Hiroyuki; Nakagawa, Takao; Matsuhara, Hideo; Takada, Makoto; Okabayashi, Akinobu; Tsunematsu, Shoji; Narasaki, Katsuhiro

    2014-08-01

    The Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA) is a pre-project of JAXA in collaboration with ESA to be launched around 2025. The SPICA mission is to be launched into a halo orbit around the second Lagrangian point in the Sun-Earth system, which allows us to use effective radiant cooling in combination with a mechanical cooling system in order to cool a 3m large IR telescope below 6K. The use of 4K / 1K-class Joule-Thomson coolers is proposed in order to cool the telescope and provide a 4K / 1K temperature region for Focal Plane Instruments (FPIs). This paper introduces details of the thermal design study for the SPICA payload module in the Risk-Mitigation-Phase (RMP), in which the activity is focused on mitigating the mission's highest risks. As the result of the RMP activity, most of all the goals have been fully satisfied and the thermal design of the payload module has been dramatically improved.

  13. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Adam David; Osborn, Douglas; Jones, Katherine A; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Cohn, Brian; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; DeMenno, Mercy; Thomas, Maikael A.; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Parks, Ethan Rutledge; Jeantete, Brian A

    2017-09-01

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

  14. Implications of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) programs for managed care pharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Gaurang; Chon, Ashley; Johnson, Nik; Kidder, Phyllis A; Lee, Peter; Leung, Kevin; Ma, Ingrid; Ness, Stacey; Sampsel, Elizabeth; Schlaifer, Marissa; Seifert, Randall; Sternaman, Debora B

    2012-04-01

    In the last 2 decades, health care management has been challenged by more aggressive therapy, the increased number of specialty medications, and more stringent guidelines to monitor adverse events or health risk. To promote patient safety, various communication requirements are mandated to increase the risk awareness of patients and physicians. These include black-box warnings, "Dear Health Care Provider" letters, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Talk Papers, MedGuides, and Risk Minimization Action Plans (RiskMAPs).

  15. Building Better Volcanic Hazard Maps Through Scientific and Stakeholder Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Calder, E.

    2015-12-01

    All across the world information about natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunami is shared and communicated using maps that show which locations are potentially exposed to hazards of varying intensities. Unlike earthquakes and tsunami, which typically produce one dominant hazardous phenomenon (ground shaking and inundation, respectively) volcanic eruptions can produce a wide variety of phenomena that range from near-vent (e.g. pyroclastic flows, ground shaking) to distal (e.g. volcanic ash, inundation via tsunami), and that vary in intensity depending on the type and location of the volcano. This complexity poses challenges in depicting volcanic hazard on a map, and to date there has been no consistent approach, with a wide range of hazard maps produced and little evaluation of their relative efficacy. Moreover, in traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map that is then presented to stakeholders. This one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication does not necessarily translate into effective hazard education, or, as tragically demonstrated by Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia in 1985, its use in risk mitigation by civil authorities. Furthermore, messages taken away from a hazard map can be strongly influenced by its visual design. Thus, hazard maps are more likely to be useful, usable and used if relevant stakeholders are engaged during the hazard map process to ensure a) the map is designed in a relevant way and b) the map takes into account how users interpret and read different map features and designs. The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk has recently launched a Hazard Mapping Working Group to collate some of these experiences in graphically depicting volcanic hazard from around the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean, with the aim of preparing some Considerations for Producing Volcanic Hazard Maps that may help map makers in the future.

  16. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  17. The asteroid and comet impact hazard: risk assessment and mitigation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gritzner, Christian; Dürfeld, Kai; Kasper, Jan; Fasoulas, Stefanos

    2006-08-01

    The impact of extraterrestrial matter onto Earth is a continuous process. On average, some 50,000 tons of dust are delivered to our planet every year. While objects smaller than about 30 m mainly disintegrate in the Earth's atmosphere, larger ones can penetrate through it and cause damage on the ground. When an object of hundreds of meters in diameter impacts an ocean, a tsunami is created that can devastate coastal cities. Further, if a km-sized object hit the Earth it would cause a global catastrophe due to the transport of enormous amounts of dust and vapour into the atmosphere resulting in a change in the Earth's climate. This article gives an overview of the near-Earth asteroid and comet (near-Earth object-NEO) impact hazard and the NEO search programmes which are gathering important data on these objects. It also points out options for impact hazard mitigation by using deflection systems. It further discusses the critical constraints for NEO deflection strategies and systems as well as mitigation and evacuation costs and benefits. Recommendations are given for future activities to solve the NEO impact hazard problem.

  18. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2016-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half. PMID:27713927

  19. Relative Impacts of Mitigation, Temperature, and Precipitation on 21st-Century Megadrought Risk in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2015-01-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  20. Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ault, Toby R; Mankin, Justin S; Cook, Benjamin I; Smerdon, Jason E

    2016-10-01

    Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

  1. Deliberating A Contract Type Based Risk Mitigation Strategy For South African Defense Acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    certainty and risk. The strategy will provide for each particular phase of the acquisition process a recommended contract-type, either cost ...commissioning phase as technology, cost and schedule risks are low . This is in line with the proposed contract strategy in Figure 10...possibility of applying a contract-type based strategy to manage acquisition program costs and schedule risks for the South African (SA) Department of

  2. Power grid operation in a market environment economic efficiency and risk mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book examines both system operation and market operation perspectives, focusing on the interaction between the two. It incorporates up-to-date field experiences, presents challenges, and summarizes the latest theoretic advancements to address those challenges. The book is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the fundamentals of integrated system and market operations, including market power mitigation, market efficiency evaluation, and the implications of operation practices in energy markets. The second part discusses developing technologies to strengthen the use of the grid in energy markets. System volatility and economic impact introduced by the intermittency of wind and solar generation are also addressed. The third part focuses on stochastic applications, exploring new approaches of handling uncerta nty in Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) as well as the reserves needed for power system operation. The fourth part provides ongoing efforts of utilizing transmission facilities ...

  3. Modeling transport and aggregation of volcanic ash particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Durant, Adam

    2010-05-01

    A complete description of ash aggregation processes in volcanic clouds is an very arduous task and the full coupling of ash transport and ash aggregation models is still computationally prohibitive. A large fraction of fine ash injected in the atmosphere during explosive eruptions aggregate because of complex interactions of surface liquid layers, electrostatic forces, and differences in settling velocities. The formation of aggregates of size and density different from those of the primary particles dramatically changes the sedimentation dynamics and results in lower atmospheric residence times of ash particles and in the formation of secondary maxima of tephra deposit. Volcanic ash transport models should include a full aggregation model accounting for all particle class interaction. However this approach would require prohibitive computational times. Here we present a simplified model for wet aggregation that accounts for both atmospheric and volcanic water transport. The aggregation model assumes a fractal relationship for the number of primary particles in aggregates, average efficiencies factors, and collision frequency functions accounting for Brownian motion, laminar and turbulent fluid shear, and differential settling velocity. We implemented the aggregation model in the WRF+FALL3D coupled modelling system and applied it to different eruptions where aggregation has been recognized to play an important role, such as the August and September 1992 Crater Peak eruptions and the 1980 Mt St Helens eruption. Moreover, understanding aggregation processes in volcanic clouds will contribute to mitigate the risks related with volcanic ash transport and sedimentation.

  4. Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D. W.

    2016-12-01

    The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

  5. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Mining-induced earthquakes pose a risk to workers in deep mines, while natural earthquakes pose a risk to people living close to plate boundaries and even in stable continental regions. A 5-year Japan-SA collaborative project "Observational studies...

  6. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization.

  7. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

    2016-12-01

    Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation

  8. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events, flood water routing in downstream areas, and flood risk reduction, providing a unified framework for addressing a variety of flood related events. Numerical, statistical and constraint based method...

  9. Sources of iteration and a risk mitigation methodology in semiconductor new product development projects

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Evan

    2014-01-01

    peer-reviewed Iteration is the major source of risk in semiconductor New Product Development (NPD) projects, occurring in approximately 90% of projects and causing on average approximately 30% schedule slippage. As such, iteration risk in semiconductor NPD projects is a very important issue that needs to be addressed. NPD projects bring specific challenges for a company due to the innate uncertainty involved in producing a new product. One major consequence of the inherent uncertainty invo...

  10. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters.

  11. Cluster Analysis of vents in monogenetic volcanic fields, Lunar Crater Volcanic Field (Nevada)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadini, A.; Cortes, J. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Johnson, P. J.; Tibaldi, A.; Bonali, F. L.

    2012-12-01

    Monogenetic volcanic fields pose a serious risk to human activities and settlements due to their high occurrence around the world and because of the type of eruptive activity that they exhibit. The need of adequate tools to better undertake volcanic hazard assessment for volcanic fields, especially from a spatial point of view, is of key importance at the time of mitigate such hazard. Among these tools, a better understanding of the spatial distribution of cones and vents and any structural/tectonical relationship are essential to understand the plumbing system of the field and thus help to predict the likelihood location of future eruptions. In this study we have developed a spatial methodology, which is the combination of various methodologies developed for volcanic textures and other clustering goals [1,2], to study the clustering of volcanic vents and their relation with structural features from satellite images. The methodology first involves the statistical identification and removal of spatial outliers using a predictive elliptical area [2] and the generation of randomly distributed points in the same predictive area. A comparison of the Near Neighbor Distance (NND) between the generated data and the data measured in a volcanic field is used to determine whether the vents are clustered or not. If the vents are clustered, a combination of hierarchical clustering and K-means [3] is then used to identify the clusters and their related vents. Results are then further constrained with the study of lineaments and other structural features that can be affected and related with the clusters. The methodology was tested in the Lunar Crater Volcanic Field, Nevada (USA) and successfully has helped to identify tectonically controlled lineaments from those that are resultant of geomorphological processes such the drainage control imposed by the cone clusters. Theoretical approaches has been developed before to constrain the plumbing of a volcanic field [4], however these

  12. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  13. Abstracts of Main EssaysThe" Middle Way" of Philosophy and the Mitigation of Thought Risk

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    He Lai Philosophy is of double characters, which means it contains the thought risk of " self-alienation". The thought risk of philosophy is rooted in two extreme trends, namely "the desire to be god's words" and "the let- alone of self-dwarfing". To give up the deep-rooted arrogance and the desire for control and at the same time undertake its duty courageously in a modern society, which is the "Middle way of philosophy". Only through this way, philosophy will avoid the fate of self alienation and its thought risk and prove to be the positive strength to push forward the free life of human being.

  14. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  15. PRESS40: a project for involving students in active seismic risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnaba, Carla; Contessi, Elisa; Rosa Girardi, Maria

    2016-04-01

    To memorialize the anniversary of the 1976 Friuli earthquake, the Istituto Statale di Istruzione Superiore "Magrini Marchetti" in Gemona del Friuli (NE Italy), with the collaboration of the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), has promoted the PRESS40 Project (Prevenzione Sismica nella Scuola a 40 anni dal terremoto del Friuli, that in English sounds like "Seismic Prevention at School 40 years later the Friuli earthquake"). The project has developed in the 2015-2016 school year, starting from the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake, and it aims to disseminate historical memory, seismic culture and awareness of seismic safety in the young generations, too often unconscious of past experiences, as recent seismic hazard perception tests have demonstrated. The basic idea of the PRESS40 Project is to involve the students in experimental activities to be active part of the seismic mitigation process. The Project is divided into two main parts, the first one in which students learn-receive knowledge from researchers, and the second one in which they teach-bring knowledge to younger students. In the first part of the project, 75 students of the "Magrini Marchetti" school acquired new geophysical data, covering the 23 municipalities from which they come from. These municipalities represent a wide area affected by the 1976 Friuli earthquake. In each locality a significant site was examined, represented by a school area. At least, 127 measurements of ambient noise have been acquired. Data processing and interpretation of all the results are still going on, under the supervision of OGS researchers.The second part of the project is planned for the early spring, when the students will present the results of geophysical survey to the younger ones of the monitored schools and to the citizens in occasion of events to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Friuli earthquake.

  16. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of differ...

  17. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different erupt...

  18. Performance of Built Environment in the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and its Implications on Seismic Risk Mitigation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, D. C.

    2015-12-01

    effective risk mitigation strategies, it is unfortunate that societies are not adequately prepared due to lack of implementation and, therefore, the seismic risk in the region capable of large to great earthquakes has risen to unacceptable levels which may lead to a large-scale disaster, if not mitigated.

  19. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  20. The mitigating influence of volunteer work on risk of long-term unemployment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovski, Erik; Dencker-Larsen, Sofie; Holm, Anders

    ,796 individuals of working age. The survey data is linked to administrative registers with individual level data on unemployment. A combination of detailed controls, lagged dependent variables, and instrumental variable regression is used in order to determine cause and effect. Our findings show that volunteers...... generally do not have a statistically significantly reduced risk or rate of unemployment....

  1. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  2. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  3. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  4. Mitigating the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency: the case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, J.F.; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, A.Y.; Mekonnen, M.M.; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on esti

  5. Cooperative Crisis Management and Avian Influenza. A Risk Assessment Guide for International Contagious Disease Prevention and Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    commercial poultry production facilities, areas in the community where poultry are produced in backyards , and markets where live poultry are sold. Third...goal towards diminishing the risk of avian influenza to humans and poultry ” along with “approaches and implementation plans for the control of...as in the case of avian influenza, where poultry workers and persons who keep small domestic flocks of chickens are at higher risk for exposure from

  6. Risk identification and risk mitigation during metro station construction by enlarging shield tunnel combined with cut-and-cover method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational ...

  7. Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2017-02-20

    The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  8. Engineering Biochar Hydrophobicity to Mitigate Risk of Top-Soil Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, T. J.; Dean, M. R.; Hockaday, W. C.; Masiello, C. A.

    2009-12-01

    The pyrolysis of biomass is a net carbon negative method of sequestering atmospheric carbon as recalcitrant black carbon. The resulting solid product, called biochar, is likely to improve agricultural soils when used as a soil conditioner in sustainable land management practice. Biochar has been shown to improve crop yields, improve water-holding capacity in sandy soils, increase cation exchange capacity (CEC), and retain nutrients from fertilization longer than soils unamended with biochar. Biochar undoubtedly has high potential as both a carbon management tool and a tool to increase global food production. However, little is understood about possible side effects of biochar in agricultural soils such as ecosystem toxicity, interactions with biota, and modification of soil hydrologic properties, such as permeability. The hydrophobicity of a soil determines how easily precipitation can permeate soil pores. Water that fails to permeate is redirected as runoff, responsible for the detachment and transport of nutrient-rich topsoil particles. Mitigating top-soil erosion is an important aspect of sustainable land management. Biochar, primarily composed of condensed aromatic structures, is a hydrophobic material and incorporating it into agricultural soils may act to alter soil hydrology through multiple avenues. These include a likely increase in soil water-holding capacity (a positive outcome) and a potential increase in soil hydrophobicity (a negative outcome). In an effort to understand how to engineer reduced biochar hydrophobicity, we investigated the hydrophobicity of biochars as a function of biomass feedstock, pyrolysis temperatures, and post-pyrolysis chemical treatments. We used Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) and Molarity of an Ethanol Drop (MED) tests to measure hydrophobicity, and FTIR, CPMAS-NMR, and N2-BET to probe the surface chemistry, bulk chemistry, and surface area of various biochars, respectively. We used post-pyrolysis chemical treatments of

  9. Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

  10. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  11. Mitigating the Health Risks of Dining Out: The Need for Standardized Portion Sizes in Restaurants

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Deborah A.; Story, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Because restaurants routinely serve food with more calories than people need, dining out represents a risk factor for overweight, obesity and other diet-related chronic diseases. Most people lack the capacity to judge the caloric content of food and there is limited evidence that people make use of calorie-labeling information when it is available. Standardized portion sizes would not preclude people from eating as much as they want, but would make the amount they are getting fully transparen...

  12. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    OpenAIRE

    Schyns, Joep F.; Arwa Hamaideh; Arjen Y. Hoekstra; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Marlou Schyns

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water sca...

  13. Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies : Suppliers and Retailers in the Swedish Organic Food Market

    OpenAIRE

    Bocquillon, Grégoire; Ekallam, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: Consumer interest and demand for healthy and ecologically produced local food has led to a high market demand that local production cannot meet. Product attributes of perishability and short life cycles ensure that even local supply chains are challenging to manage. This increases potential for risks occurrence in an Organic Food Supply Chain (OFSC) especially with unreliable supply of products. Small and established food retailers import organic food products from across...

  14. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  15. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of censored microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, P; Geeraerd, A H; Uyttendaele, M; Van Impe, J F

    2011-06-01

    Microbiological contamination data often is censored because of the presence of non-detects or because measurement outcomes are known only to be smaller than, greater than, or between certain boundary values imposed by the laboratory procedures. Therefore, it is not straightforward to fit distributions that summarize contamination data for use in quantitative microbiological risk assessment, especially when variability and uncertainty are to be characterized separately. In this paper, distributions are fit using Bayesian analysis, and results are compared to results obtained with a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation and the non-parametric bootstrap method. The Bayesian model is also extended hierarchically to estimate the effects of the individual elements of a covariate such as, for example, on a national level, the food processing company where the analyzed food samples were processed, or, on an international level, the geographical origin of contamination data. Including this extra information allows a risk assessor to differentiate between several scenario's and increase the specificity of the estimate of risk of illness, or compare different scenario's to each other. Furthermore, inference is made on the predictive importance of several different covariates while taking into account uncertainty, allowing to indicate which covariates are influential factors determining contamination.

  16. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  17. Techniques to Assess and Mitigate the Environmental Risk Posed by use of Airguns: Recent Advances from Academic Research Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, P. J.; Tyack, P. L.; Johnson, M. P.; Madsen, P. T.; King, R.

    2006-05-01

    There is considerable uncertainty about the ways in which marine mammals might react to noise, the biological significance of reactions, and the effectiveness of planning and real-time mitigation techniques. A planning tool commonly used to assess environmental risk of acoustic activities uses simulations to predict acoustic exposures received by animals, and translates exposure to response using a dose-response function to yield an estimate of the undesired impact on a population. Recent advances show promise to convert this planning tool into a real-time mitigation tool, using Bayesian statistical methods. In this approach, being developed for use by the British Navy, the environmental risk simulation is updated continuously during field operations. The distribution of exposure, set initially based on animal density, is updated in real-time using animal sensing data or environmental data known to correlate with the absence or presence of marine mammals. This conditional probability of animal presence should therefore be more accurate than prior probabilities used during planning, which enables a more accurate and quantitative assessment of both the impact of activities and reduction of impact via mitigation decisions. Two key areas of uncertainty in addition to animal presence/absence are 1.) how biologically-relevant behaviours are affected by exposure to noise, and 2.) whether animals avoid loud noise sources, which is the basis of ramp-up as a mitigation tool. With support from MMS and industry partners, we assessed foraging behaviour and avoidance movements of 8 tagged sperm whales in the Gulf of Mexico during experimental exposure to airguns. The whale that was approached most closely prolonged a surface resting bout hours longer than typical, but resumed foraging immediately after the airguns ceased, suggesting avoidance of deep diving necessary for foraging near active airguns. Behavioral indices of foraging rate (echolocation buzzes produced during prey

  18. National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; ,

    2007-01-01

    The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

  19. Downgrading Complexity in the Exxon Valdez Crisis: Using Information as a Risk Mitigation Tool in Complex Adaptive Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric Snow

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available

     

    In a high-stakes crisis environment, trial and error can be too costly an approach. The Exxon Valdez oil spill provides an example of how complex adaptive systems can have simple, preventable problems and complex, unpredictable problems can come together with disastrous consequences. Not every possible contingency can be accounted for. However, research and experience can be applied to mitigate these types of risks by using information to reduce or "downgrade" the complexity of the contributing situations. The Cynefin contexts of complexity can be used to assess problems when they arise. Downgrading the level of complexity for a given problem can turn formerly complex or complicated situations into simple ones that require less knowledge and resources to resolve and can reduce the risk of failure. The possibility and consequences of failure may remain, but downgraded complexity can reduce the likelihood of this failure and make problems more manageable when they do occur.

  20. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  1. Mitigating the health risks of dining out: the need for standardized portion sizes in restaurants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Deborah A; Story, Mary

    2014-04-01

    Because restaurants routinely serve food with more calories than people need, dining out represents a risk factor for overweight, obesity, and other diet-related chronic diseases. Most people lack the capacity to judge the caloric content of food and there is limited evidence that people make use of calorie-labeling information when it is available. Standardized portion sizes would not preclude people from eating as much as they want, but would make the amount they are getting fully transparent. We describe the potential benefits and means of implementing a system of standardized portion sizes that might facilitate a healthier diet among the US population.

  2. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  3. A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    W. Marzocchi; Sandri, L.; Furlan, C

    2006-01-01

    Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees o...

  4. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley-Forster, Patricia K; Pergolizzi, Joseph V; Taylor, Robert; Axford-Gatley, Robert A; Sellers, Edward M

    2013-12-04

    Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.

  5. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  6. Risk security and soil loss mitigation: the EU case study of the Sufalnet Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Rigillo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Former and abandoned landfills represent a good opportunity for producing new impervious surfaces for the urban environment, contrasting soil loss (specially the agricultural one and improving the recovery of brownfield. From such perspective, landfill redevelopment could be intended as the beginning of a new life cycle for the site, corresponding to a kick off action for achieving environmental and socio-economic development. This is the purpose of the Sufalnet Project (Sustainable Use of Former and Abandoned Landfill that defines a new approach for landfill redevelopment in form of model strategy by which reducing both the risk of the project failure and of the environmental pollution. Model strategy acts as cultural device for managing redevelop- ment process and its complexity.

  7. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  8. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain

  9. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally

  10. Geodetic Monitoring System Operating On Neapolitan Volcanic Area (southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingue, F.; Ov-Geodesy Team

    volcanic high risk, is monitored also by dense geodetic networks using different methods: levelling, GPS, tiltmeter, tide-gauge, gravimetry, INSAR. Each of the collected data contributes to volcanic sources modelling, thus to the eruptive scenarios definition and the risk mitigation. Here the geodetic surveillance system in the Neapolitan area is described in detail and the main results obtained in the last years are shown and discussed.

  11. Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

    2014-12-01

    With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

  12. Genome privacy: challenges, technical approaches to mitigate risk, and ethical considerations in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Singh, Siddharth; Marmor, Rebecca; Bonomi, Luca; Fox, Dov; Dow, Michelle; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

    2017-01-01

    Accessing and integrating human genomic data with phenotypes are important for biomedical research. Making genomic data accessible for research purposes, however, must be handled carefully to avoid leakage of sensitive individual information to unauthorized parties and improper use of data. In this article, we focus on data sharing within the scope of data accessibility for research. Current common practices to gain biomedical data access are strictly rule based, without a clear and quantitative measurement of the risk of privacy breaches. In addition, several types of studies require privacy-preserving linkage of genotype and phenotype information across different locations (e.g., genotypes stored in a sequencing facility and phenotypes stored in an electronic health record) to accelerate discoveries. The computer science community has developed a spectrum of techniques for data privacy and confidentiality protection, many of which have yet to be tested on real-world problems. In this article, we discuss clinical, technical, and ethical aspects of genome data privacy and confidentiality in the United States, as well as potential solutions for privacy-preserving genotype-phenotype linkage in biomedical research. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  13. NCCN Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies White Paper: Recommendations for Stakeholders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Philip E; Dahlman, George; Eng, Kirby; Garg, Rekha; Gottlieb, Scott; Hoffman, James M; Howell, Peyton; Jahanzeb, Mohammad; Johnson, Shirley; Mackler, Emily; Rubino, Mark; Sarokhan, Brenda; Marc Stewart, F; Tyler, Tim; Vose, Julie M; Weinstein, Sharon; Li, Edward C; Demartino, Jessica

    2010-09-01

    REMS are a particularly important issue for oncology and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN). A disproportionate number of drugs with complex REMS are used in patients with cancer or hematologic disorders. REMS policies and processes within oncology may act as a model for other clinical areas. A breadth of experience and access to a wide knowledge base exists within oncology that will ensure appropriate development and consideration of the practical implications of REMS. NCCN is uniquely positioned to assume a leadership role in this process given its status as the arbiter of high-quality cancer care based on its world-leading institutions and clinicians. Notwithstanding the potential benefits, the successful design, implementation, and analysis of the FDA's recent requirement for REMS for some high-risk drugs and biologics will present significant challenges for stakeholders, including patients, providers, cancer centers, manufacturers, payors, health information technology vendors, and regulatory agencies. To provide guidance to these stakeholders regarding REMS challenges, the NCCN assembled a work group comprised of thought leaders from NCCN Member Institutions and other outside experts. The Work Group identified challenges across the REMS spectrum, including the areas of standardization, development and assessment of REMS programs, medication guides, provider knowledge and impact on prescribing, provider burden and compensation, and incorporation of REMS into clinical practice.

  14. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stöβlein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  15. Proactive inventory policy intervention to mitigate risk within cooperative supply chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Kurano

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory paper will investigate the concept of supply chain risk management involving supplier monitoring within a cooperative supply chain. Inventory levels and stockouts are the key metrics. Key to this concept is the assumptions that (1 out-of-control supplier situations are causal triggers for downstream supply chain disruptions, (2 these triggers can potentially be predicted using statistical process monitoring tools, and (3 carrying excess inventory only when needed is preferable as opposed to carrying excess inventory on a continual basis. Simulation experimentation will be used to explore several supplier monitoring strategies based on statistical runs tests, specifically "runs up and down" and/or "runs above and below" tests. The sensitivity of these tests in detecting non-random supplier behavior will be explored and their performance will be investigated relative to stock-outs and inventory levels. Finally, the effects of production capacity and yield rate will be examined. Results indicate out-of-control supplier signals can be detected beforehand and stock-outs can be significantly reduced by dynamically adjusting inventory levels. The largest benefit occurs when both runs tests are used together and when the supplier has sufficient production capacity to respond to downstream demand (i.e., safety stock increases. When supplier capacity is limited, the highest benefit is achieved when yield rates are high and, thus, yield loss does not increase supplier production requirements beyond its available capacity.

  16. Mitigating Reputational Risks - A Proposal With A Knowledge-Based Stakeholder Information Leitstand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Stöβlein

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The Internet plays a crucial role in the communication strategy of organizations. However, information is often distributed at the "wrong" time and does not always satisfy the particular requirements of key customers, suppliers, governments, shareholders or financial analysts. Serious mistakes might not only create negative sequela, for example, stakeholders remain unsatisfied, downgrade their opinions about products and companies, and subsequently make 'wrong' decisions. Such mistakes could also have tremendous effects on the primary objectives of an enterprise, e.g., the reputation suffers and subsequently the share price plunges. In this paper, we present how companies can take advantage of actively providing targeted information with a knowledge-based Stakeholder Information Leitstand (information planning and control center. It helps executives stabilize relationships with key customers, journalists, politicians, investors, and assists in promoting trust and enhancing reputation, especially in times of risk situations. We focus on the design phase of the system, and propose that current decision support systems could be enriched with "business content", i.e. predefined situation-oriented and individualized information categories and messages.

  17. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann; Hartmann, Nanna Isabella Bloch;

    2009-01-01

    The use of nanoscaled particles in environmental remediation is gaining increasing amounts of attention in recent years, including the use of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI) for soil and groundwater remediation. The main advantages of its use include high degrees of reactivity towards a wide....... Furthermore, we estimate and compare the span between probable environmental concentrations from its use in the field and concentrations which have been shown to cause adverse effects in laboratory settings. This is in light of the challenges that quantitative risk assessments face for nZVI and other...

  18. "Last mile" challenges to in situ volcanic data transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. B. D. Fonseca

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Scientists play a key role in volcanic risk mitigation, but rely heavily on fast access to data acquired in the vicinity of an active volcano. Hazardous volcanoes are often located in remote areas were telecommunications infrastructure is fragile. Besides being exposed directly to the volcanic hazard, the infrastructure in such remote areas can suffer also from "last mile" limitations derived from lack of market demand for data transmission services. In this paper, we report on the findings of FP7 MIAVITA project in the topic of volcanic data transmission. We draw on the contribution of partners from emergent or developing countries to identify the main bottlenecks and fragilities. We present also the results of an experiment conducted in Fogo island, Cape Verde, to test the availability of VSAT services adequate for volcanic monitoring. We warn against the false sense of security resulting from increasingly ubiquitous connectivity, and point out the lack of reliability of many consumer-type services, particularly during emergencies when such services are likely to crash due to excess of demand from the public. Finally, we propose guidelines and recommend best practices for the design of volcanic monitoring networks in what concerns data transmission. In particular, we advise that the data transmission equipment close to the exposed area should be owned, operated and maintained by the volcanic monitoring institution. We exemplify with the setup of the Fogo telemetric interface, which uses low-power licence-free radio modems to reach a robust point of entry into the public network at a suitable distance from the volcano.

  19. Groundwater and urbanisation, risks and mitigation: The case for the city of Windhoek, Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapani, B. S.

    The City of Windhoek is underlain by the Kuiseb Schist, locally known as the “Windhoek Schist” and amphibolites. In the low-lying parts of the Windhoek valley, gravels and sands are present. The Windhoek schist has several lithologies, dominated by garnet-muscovite-chlorite-biotite schist, with distinctive cleavage. This pervasive cleavage renders the underlying lithology permeable to fluids percolating from the surface into the aquifer. Other minor lithologies are trachytes, metarhyolites and quartzites found to the east of the city. The amphibolite is part of the Matchless belt, and traverses the city in a NE-SW fashion. When weathered, it forms a perfect aquiclude. North-south and northeast-southwest trending faults with a few splays cut across the Kuiseb Schist. The faults play a significant role in increasing the fracture density of the fissile schist. The faults are the major links that form channels between the surface and the aquifer below. The city of Windhoek uses the aquifer both as a source of fresh water and as a storage facility. The recharge areas of the aquifer lie to the east and south- to southeast of the city in the vicinity of the suburb of Kleine Kuppe. The soil horizon over the Windhoek schist is very shallow and most buildings are built directly on bedrock. The thin soil horizon makes the aquifer prone to pollution, caused either by accidents such as spills or by carelessness due to unsupervised dumping. The fissility and fracture density of the schist imply that leakage of surface waters, phenols, septic-tank spills, sewer-bursts, chemical and industrial contaminants and other such materials can reach the aquifer in unusually high rainfall years. The effects of fuels and oils are much more adverse, as they may remain in soils for long periods. The rapid urbanization and building of informal settlements without sewage reticulation has increased the risk of pollution to the Windhoek aquifer. The close monitoring of sewage pipes, filling

  20. COMPACT: The role of soil management in mitigating catchment flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattison, Ian; Coates, Victoria; Frost, Matthew; Demirci, Emrah

    2017-04-01

    This paper reports a new NERC funded research project which addresses the impact of agricultural soil compaction on surface runoff and catchment scale flood risk. The intensification of agriculture, through increasing the number of animals in pasture, and the use of larger, heavier machinery for arable farming, over the past 50 years or so is hypothesised to have had an impact on the severity and frequency of flooding. These land management practices cause soil compaction, which reduces the rate of rainfall infiltration and the volume of water that can be stored within the sub-surface. This results in more rainfall being partitioned into the faster surface runoff pathway into rivers and potentially causing flooding downstream. However, the level of soil compaction is highly heterogeneous over space and time. This is because different animals i.e. cattle, sheep and horses, exert different loads on the soil and are kept at different densities. Furthermore, farm animals are known to exhibit behaviour whereby certain parts of the field are moved over more frequently than others. The same is the case in arable farming practices, whereby ploughing forms tramlines or wheelings, which are more compacted. Different forms of management practice ranging from zero-tillage to conventional cultivation exert different pressures on the soil at different times of year. However, very little is known about this variability of soil compaction levels at the sub-field level and land under different management practices. This research aims to quantify this sub-field variation in compaction severity and depths through using novel Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and Animal tracking GPS technology. Combining these with more conventional soil property tests, including bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity and using a penetrometer will allow relationships with frequency of load to be developed over different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, X-Ray CT scanning will reveal the

  1. Toward an operational neuroethical risk analysis and mitigation paradigm for emerging neuroscience and technology (neuroS/T).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, James

    2017-01-01

    Research in neuroscience and neurotechnology (neuroS/T) is progressing at a rapid pace with translational applications both in medicine, and more widely in the social milieu. Current and projected neuroS/T research and its applications evoke a number of neuroethicolegal and social issues (NELSI). This paper defines inherent and derivative NELSI of current and near-term neuroS/T development and engagement, and provides an overview of our group's ongoing work to develop a systematized approach to their address. Our proposed operational neuroethical risk assessment and mitigation paradigm (ONRAMP) is presented, which entails querying, framing, and modeling patterns and trajectories of neuroS/T research and translational uses, and the NELSI generated by such advancements and their applications. Extant ethical methods are addressed, with suggestion toward possible revision or re-formulation to meet the needs and exigencies fostered by neuroS/T and resultant NELSI in multi-cultural contexts. The relevance and importance of multi-disciplinary expertise in focusing upon NELSI is discussed, and the need for neuroethics education toward cultivating such a cadre of expertise is emphasized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A Contribution to Mitigating Seismic Risk in the Bay Area: The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) GPS Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houlie, N.; Romanowicz, B.; Hellweg, P.

    2007-05-01

    In the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), two million people live in a geologically complex, tectonically active region that has experienced several historic earthquakes, including the 1868 Hayward, the 1906 San Francisco, and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Geodetic measurements, which are especially useful for detecting deformation and strain on deep structures throughout the seismic cycle, show that Bay Area deformation is both spatially complex and varying with time. Increasingly, GPS data can also be used in real time to complement seismic data in providing robust real-time earthquake information, and, potentially, early warning. The Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network of permanent, continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers monitors crustal deformation in the Bay Area and northern California. BARD is a network collocated with several seismic networks (BDSN, NHFN, mini-PBO) operating in Northern California. As the local determination of magnitude is problematic for large earthquakes, the GPS will provide strong constraints on rupture geometry and amount of slip along the slipping fault. Thus, the collocation of all the networks will help mitigate earthquake- related risks associated with an earthquake in the SFBA or in northern California.

  3. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fournier, Marie; Larrue, Corinne; Alexander, Meghan; Hegger, D.L.T.; bakker, marloes; Pettersson, Maria; Crabbé, Ann; Mees, Hannelore; Chorynski, Adam

    2016-01-01

    Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood

  4. A process-based model for the definition of hydrological alert systems in landslide risk mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Floris

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The definition of hydrological alert systems for rainfall-induced landslides is strongly related to a deep knowledge of the geological and geomorphological features of the territory. Climatic conditions, spatial and temporal evolution of the phenomena and characterization of landslide triggering, together with propagation mechanisms, are the key elements to be considered. Critical steps for the development of the systems consist of the identification of the hydrological variable related to landslide triggering and of the minimum rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence.

    In this paper we report the results from a process-based model to define a hydrological alert system for the Val di Maso Landslide, located in the northeastern Italian Alps and included in the Vicenza Province (Veneto region, NE Italy. The instability occurred in November 2010, due to an exceptional rainfall event that hit the Vicenza Province and the entire NE Italy. Up to 500 mm in 3-day cumulated rainfall generated large flood conditions and triggered hundreds of landslides. During the flood, the Soil Protection Division of the Vicenza Province received more than 500 warnings of instability phenomena. The complexity of the event and the high level of risk to infrastructure and private buildings are the main reasons for deepening the specific phenomenon occurred at Val di Maso.

    Empirical and physically-based models have been used to identify the minimum rainfall threshold for the occurrence of instability phenomena in the crown area of Val di Maso landslide, where a retrogressive evolution by multiple rotational slides is expected. Empirical models helped in the identification and in the evaluation of recurrence of critical rainfall events, while physically-based modelling was essential to verify the effects on the slope stability of determined rainfall depths. Empirical relationships between rainfall and landslide consist of the calculation of rainfall

  5. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, D. K.; Gisladottir, G.; Dominey-Howes, D.

    2009-02-01

    Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used

  6. Mitigating Cybersecurity Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Rachel V; Kass, Joseph S

    2017-04-01

    Cybersecurity issues and their impact on compliance with the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) Act are becoming more of an enforcement focus for a variety of government agencies, including the US Department of Health and Human Services, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Department of Justice. In the case presented in this article, a nurse in a neurology practice opted to speak with a patient about human immunodeficiency virus testing procedures in a manner audible to others in the waiting room. Computer screens with patient information were visible to anyone approaching a desk, the staff had not been trained on cybersecurity issues, and malware infected the computers used in the practice. In light of these circumstances and the launch of Phase 2 of the HIPAA Audit Program by the US Department of Health and Human Services Office for Civil Rights, the neurology practice must consider the following questions. First, could the gaps in the technical, administrative, and physical requirements of HIPAA and the HITECH Act result in an adverse audit and penalties? Second, what course of action does the law mandate in response to a ransomware attack?

  7. Navy Force Structure: Sustainable Plan and Comprehensive Assessment Needed to Mitigate Long-Term Risks to Ships Assigned to Overseas Homeports

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    surface combatant tailored for land attack and littoral warfare. The Navy plans to build three of these ships and estimates initial operating...homeported in Rota, Spain; however, it has not determined how—or whether—it will apply a more sustainable schedule to its 36 surface and amphibious ships...NAVY FORCE STRUCTURE Sustainable Plan and Comprehensive Assessment Needed to Mitigate Long-Term Risks to Ships

  8. Volcanic gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Kenneth A.; Gerlach, Terrance M.

    1995-01-01

    In Roman mythology, Vulcan, the god of fire, was said to have made tools and weapons for the other gods in his workshop at Olympus. Throughout history, volcanoes have frequently been identified with Vulcan and other mythological figures. Scientists now know that the “smoke" from volcanoes, once attributed by poets to be from Vulcan’s forge, is actually volcanic gas naturally released from both active and many inactive volcanoes. The molten rock, or magma, that lies beneath volcanoes and fuels eruptions, contains abundant gases that are released to the surface before, during, and after eruptions. These gases range from relatively benign low-temperature steam to thick hot clouds of choking sulfurous fume jetting from the earth. Water vapor is typically the most abundant volcanic gas, followed by carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Other volcanic gases are hydrogen sulfide, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, hydrofluoric acid, and other trace gases and volatile metals. The concentrations of these gas species can vary considerably from one volcano to the next.

  9. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  10. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  11. Coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures of hydro-meteorological risks: the importance of establishing a link between emergency management and spatial planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prenger-Berninghoff, Kathrin; Cortes, V. Juliette; Aye, Zar Chi; Sprague, Teresa

    2013-04-01

    The management of natural hazards involves, as generally known, the four stages of the risk management cycle: Prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, the mitigation of disasters can be performed in terms of short-term and long-term purposes. Whereas emergency management or civil protection helps to strengthen a community's capacity to be better prepared for natural hazards and to better respond in case a disaster strikes, thus addressing the short-term perspective, spatial planning serves long-term planning goals and can therefore implement long-term prevention measures. A purposefully applied risk mitigation strategy requires coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation measures and thus an effective coordination of emergency management and spatial planning. Several actors are involved in risk management and should consequently be linked throughout the whole risk management cycle. However, these actors, partly because of a historically fragmented administrative system, are hardly connected to each other, with spatial planning only having a negligible role compared to other actors1, a problem to which Young (2002) referred to as the "problem of interplay". In contrast, information transfer and decision-taking happen at the same time and are not coordinated among different actors. This applies to the prevention and preparedness phase as well as to the recovery phase, which basically constitutes the prevention phase for the next disaster2. Since investments in both risk prevention and emergency preparedness and response are considered necessary, a better coordination of the two approaches is required. In this regard, Decision Support Systems (DSS) can be useful in order to provide support in the decision-making aspect of risk management. The research work currently undertaken examines the problem of interplay in the four case study areas of the Marie Curie ITN, CHANGES3. The link between different risk management actors will be explored

  12. DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an

  13. GOSAT/TANSO-FTS Measurement of Volcanic and Geothermal CO2 Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwandner, Florian M.; Carn, Simon A.; Newhall, Christopher G.

    2010-05-01

    Approximately one tenth of the Earth's human population lives in direct reach of volcanic hazards. Being able to provide sufficiently early and scientifically sound warning is a key to volcanic hazard mitigation. Quantitative time-series monitoring of volcanic CO2 emissions will likely play a key role in such early warning activities in the future. Impending volcanic eruptions or any potentially disastrous activity that involves movement of magma in the subsurface, is often preceded by an early increase of CO2 emissions. Conventionally, volcanic CO2 monitoring is done either in campaigns of soil emission measurements (grid of one-time measuring points) that are labor intensive and slow, or by ground-based remote FTIR measurements in emission plumes. These methods are not easily available at all sites of potential activity and prohibitively costly to employ on a large number of volcanoes. In addition, both of these ground-based approaches pose a significant risk to the workers conducting these measurements. Some aircraft-based measurements have been conducted as well in the past, however these are limited by the usually meager funding situation of individual observatories, the hazard such flights pose to equipment and crew, and by the inaccessibility of parts of the plume due to ash hazards. The core motivation for this study is therefore to develop a method for volcanic CO2 monitoring from space that will provide sufficient coverage, resolution, and data quality for an application to quantitative time series monitoring and correlation with other available datasets, from a safe distance and with potentially global reach. In summary, the purpose of the proposed research is to quantify volcanic CO2 emissions using satellite-borne observations. Quantitative estimates will be useful for warning of impending volcanic eruptions, and assessing the contribution of volcanic CO2 to global GHG. Our approach encompasses method development and testing for the detection of

  14. Wetlands Mitigation Banking Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-07-01

    the financial risk associated with are normally established in advance, mitigation permitted activities. banks eliminate the lag time between loss and...management natural state or to an enhanced condition and techniques. None of the traditional wetlands begin to amass bankable credits has also been management

  15. Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

  16. A Systems Engineering Process for Selecting Technologies to Mitigate the Risk of Operating Rotorcraft in Degraded Visual Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Rotorcraft in Degraded Visual Environments 6. AUTHOR(S) T.A. Dellert, C.C. Bivens, S. Balestrini-Robinson, PhD., J.M. Zentner, Ph.D. and IVl.D. Hopkins 3...their ability to mitigate the gaps. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Degraded Visual Environment; Design of Experiments, Functional Needs Analysis, Usable /cue...Environment, Systems Engineering, Pilot Vehicle Interface, Rotorcraft operations. Brownout, Reduced Visibility, Handling Qualities, Flight Controls

  17. Data-driven identification of structural alerts for mitigating the risk of drug-induced human liver injuries

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ruifeng; Yu, Xueping; Wallqvist, Anders

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of structural alerts to de-prioritize compounds with undesirable features as drug candidates has been gaining in popularity. Hundreds of molecular structural moieties have been proposed as structural alerts. An emerging issue is that strict application of these alerts will result in a significant reduction of the chemistry space for new drug discovery, as more than half of the oral drugs on the market match at least one of the alerts. To mitigate this issue, we propose to a...

  18. Geomorphological Characterization of Atenquique Basin in the Eastern Sector of the Volcan-Nevado-Colima, Jalisco, Mexico, As an Input to the Risk Assessment of Debris Flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Pena, S.; Suarez-Plascencia, C.

    2014-12-01

    The Atenquique river basin drains the eastern sector of the Volcanic Complex (VC) Volcan-Nevado de Colima, located on the border of the states of Jalisco and Colima. To use the digital geomorphological analysis 1:50000 scale mapping provided by INEGI and Landsat images, manipulating it in ArcGIS 10.2 developing the DEM that was the basis for morphometric characterization. The results show that the basin is divided into five sub-basins, with the main Atenquique (SAT) and Arroyo Seco (SAS), calculating the compactness coefficient (Kc) and the coefficient of sinuosity indicate that SAT is the most prone to floods due to straight and slightly sinuous channels. However, the density of dissection shows a more developed drainage network on the SAT, with slopes up to 84° and 600 m deep. The drainage basin has its source at an altitude of 4260 m and its mouth is in the Tuxpan River at 1040 m, which has a relative height of 2800 m; has a funnel-shaped elongated west-east, its outstanding average in the sector are Mountain 44° and 10° the piedmont. The SAT has a total area of 81.8 km2, with a dendritic river network, where the first order streams reach an 82.99%, and second order streams are the 13.4% of the total, these values show that most of the slopes of the basin have incipient development valleys and steep slopes. The basin has had 3 debris flows in recent 58 years; these are formed by large volumes of rock and mud that covered the town of Atenquique and paper mill located at the mouth of the Tuxpan River, caused deaths and significant economic damage. Its genesis is associated with the end of the summer rainy season, so he also worked in the hydrological analysis in order to determine the volume of runoff in the basin. The results of this work are used as input for the determining the risk levels in the study area, and may also be used by the municipality of Tuxpan, in order to define policies to manage risk and reduce future risks to the industrial town of

  19. Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

  20. Partial Cold Treatment of Citrus Fruit for Export Risk Mitigation for Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) as Part of a Systems Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, S D; Kirkman, W; Albertyn, S; Love, C N; Coetzee, J A; Hattingh, V

    2016-08-01

    Some of South Africa's citrus export markets require mandatory postharvest cold treatment of citrus fruit as a phytosanitary risk mitigation treatment for Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). An alternative to this may be partial cold treatment as one of the final steps in a systems approach to mitigate phytosanitary risk. Consequently, the efficacy of such partial cold treatments was evaluated. It was first determined that a 2°C cold treatment was significantly more effective against fourth and fifth instars (the most cold-tolerant instars) than treatments at 3°C and 4°C for a duration of 18 d. Secondly, it was determined that 2°C for 18 d and 1°C for 16 d were similarly effective, but both treatments were significantly more effective than 1°C for 14 d. Mean mortality of fourth and fifth instars treated with 2°C for 18 d in seven replicates from four trials was 99.94%. Finally, it was determined that the inability of the majority of surviving larvae to develop to adulthood would further increase the efficacy of a 2°C for 18 d treatment to 99.96%. Inclusion of reproductive nonviability of survivors increased mortality to 99.99%.

  1. Landscape-scale accessibility of livestock to tigers: implications of spatial grain for modeling predation risk to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Jena, Jyotirmay; Schmitz, Oswald J

    2015-03-01

    Innovative conservation tools are greatly needed to reduce livelihood losses and wildlife declines resulting from human-carnivore conflict. Spatial risk modeling is an emerging method for assessing the spatial patterns of predator-prey interactions, with applications for mitigating carnivore attacks on livestock. Large carnivores that ambush prey attack and kill over small areas, requiring models at fine spatial grains to predict livestock depredation hot spots. To detect the best resolution for predicting where carnivores access livestock, we examined the spatial attributes associated with livestock killed by tigers in Kanha Tiger Reserve, India, using risk models generated at 20, 100, and 200-m spatial grains. We analyzed land-use, human presence, and vegetation structure variables at 138 kill sites and 439 random sites to identify key landscape attributes where livestock were vulnerable to tigers. Land-use and human presence variables contributed strongly to predation risk models, with most variables showing high relative importance (≥0.85) at all spatial grains. The risk of a tiger killing livestock increased near dense forests and near the boundary of the park core zone where human presence is restricted. Risk was nonlinearly related to human infrastructure and open vegetation, with the greatest risk occurring 1.2 km from roads, 1.1 km from villages, and 8.0 km from scrubland. Kill sites were characterized by denser, patchier, and more complex vegetation with lower visibility than random sites. Risk maps revealed high-risk hot spots inside of the core zone boundary and in several patches in the human-dominated buffer zone. Validation against known kills revealed predictive accuracy for only the 20 m model, the resolution best representing the kill stage of hunting for large carnivores that ambush prey, like the tiger. Results demonstrate that risk models developed at fine spatial grains can offer accurate guidance on landscape attributes livestock should

  2. Volcanic activity: a review for health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhall, C G; Fruchter, J S

    1986-03-01

    Volcanoes erupt magma (molten rock containing variable amounts of solid crystals, dissolved volatiles, and gas bubbles) along with pulverized pre-existing rock (ripped from the walls of the vent and conduit). The resulting volcanic rocks vary in their physical and chemical characteristics, e.g., degree of fragmentation, sizes and shapes of fragments, minerals present, ratio of crystals to glass, and major and trace elements composition. Variability in the properties of magma, and in the relative roles of magmatic volatiles and groundwater in driving an eruption, determine to a great extent the type of an eruption; variability in the type of an eruption in turn influences the physical characteristics and distribution of the eruption products. The principal volcanic hazards are: ash and larger fragments that rain down from an explosion cloud (airfall tephra and ballistic fragments); flows of hot ash, blocks, and gases down the slopes of a volcano (pyroclastic flows); "mudflows" (debris flows); lava flows; and concentrations of volcanic gases in topographic depressions. Progress in volcanology is bringing improved long- and short-range forecasts of volcanic activity, and thus more options for mitigation of hazards. Collaboration between health professionals and volcanologists helps to mitigate health hazards of volcanic activity.

  3. Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

    2016-04-01

    Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

  4. Understanding volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Somma, Renato; Moretti, Roberto

    2017-05-01

    Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative modeling and scientific drilling are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei, and the results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the roles of magma intrusion and geothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

  5. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields

    OpenAIRE

    Bartolini, Stefania

    2014-01-01

    [eng] One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology, which represents a significant socio-economic implication, is to conduct hazard assessment in active volcanic systems. These volcanological studies are aimed at hazard that allows to constructing hazard maps and simulating different eruptive scenarios, and are mainly addressed to contribute to territorial planning, definition of emergency plans or managing volcanic crisis. The impact of a natural event, as a volcanic eruption, can s...

  6. REIMR - A Process for Utilizing Liquid Rocket Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk in Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, RIchard O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). One of the primary results of this study was the identification of the Fundamental Root Causes that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future propulsion system development efforts, such as that which is currently envisioned in the field of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTF). This paper will discuss the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided in the development of an NTP system

  7. Managing and Mitigating the Health Risks of Climate Change: Calling for Evidence-Informed Policy and Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Ebi, Kristie; Olsen, Jorn

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Climate change affects many natural and social systems and processes that are essential for life. It disrupts the Earth’s life-support systems that underpin the world’s capacity to supply adequate food and fresh water, and it disturbs the eco-physical buffering against natural disasters. Epidemiologists need to develop and improve research and monitoring programs to better understand the scale and immediacy of the threat of climate change to human health and to act within a much larger and more comprehensive framework. To address one of the greatest environmental issues of our lifetime, the scientific and policy-making communities should work together to formulate evidence-informed public policy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to its inevitable impacts in this generation and, more importantly, in future generations to come. PMID:27689449

  8. A correlation of long term effects and radiation quality in the progeny of bystander cells after microbeam radiations: The experimental study of radiotherapy for cancer risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autsavapromporn, N.; Konishi, T.; Liu, C.; Plante, I.; Funayama, T.; Usami, N.; Azzam, EI; Suzuki, M.

    2017-06-01

    The goal of this study is to investigate the role of radiation quality and gap junction intercellular communication (GJIC) in the propagation of delayed stressful effects in the progeny of bystander human skin fibroblasts cultures (NB1RGB). Briefly, confluent NB1RGB cells in the presence and absence of gap junction inhibitor (AGA) were exposed to ionizing radiation (IR) with a different linear energy transfer (LET) either 5.35 keV X rays (LET ∼6 keV/μm) or 18.3 MeV/u carbon (LET ∼103 keV/μm) microbeam radiations. Following 20 populations post-irradiation, the progeny of bystander NB1RGB cells were harvested and assayed for several of biological endpoints. Our results showed that expression of stressful effects in the progeny of bystander cells is dependent on LET. The progeny of bystander cells exposed to low-LET X rays showed the persistence of oxidative stress and it was correlated with the increased mutant fraction. Such effect were not observed after high-LET carbon ions. Interestingly, inhibition of GJIC mitigated the toxic effects in the progeny of bystander cells. Together, the results contribute to the understanding of the fundamental radiation biology relating to the high-LET carbon ions to mitigate cancer risk after radiotherapy. Furthermore, GJIC be considered as a critical mediator in the bystander mutagenic effect.

  9. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Becerril

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted in the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how, the spatial probability (where and the temporal probability (when of an eruption on the island. By studying the past eruptive behavior of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs. Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result is the first total qualitative volcanic hazard map of the island.

  10. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-07-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

  11. The use of questionnaires for acquiring information on public perception of natural hazards and risk mitigation – a review of current knowledge and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Questionnaires are popular and fundamental tools for acquiring information on public knowledge and perception of natural hazards. Questionnaires can provide valuable information to emergency management agencies for developing risk management procedures. Although many natural hazards researchers describe results generated from questionnaires, few explain the techniques used for their development and implementation. Methodological detail should include, as a minimum, response format (open/closed questions, mode of delivery, sampling technique, response rate and access to the questionnaire to allow reproduction of or comparison with similar studies. This article reviews current knowledge and practice for developing and implementing questionnaires. Key features include questionnaire design, delivery mode, sampling techniques and data analysis. In order to illustrate these aspects, a case study examines methods chosen for the development and implementation of questionnaires used to obtain information on knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards in a tourist region in southern Iceland. Face-to-face interviews highlighted certain issues with respect to question structure and sequence. Recommendations are made to overcome these problems before the questionnaires are applied in future research projects. In conclusion, basic steps that should be disclosed in the literature are provided as a checklist to ensure that reliable, replicable and valid results are produced from questionnaire based hazard knowledge and risk perception research.

  12. Diarrhoeal Health Risks Attributable to Water-Borne-Pathogens in Arsenic-Mitigated Drinking Water in West Bengal are Largely Independent of the Microbiological Quality of the Supplied Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debapriya Mondal

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing discussion about the possibility of arsenic mitigation measures in Bengal and similar areas leading to undesirable substitution of water-borne-pathogen attributable risks pathogens for risks attributable to arsenic, in part because of uncertainties in relative pathogen concentrations in supplied and end-use water. We try to resolve this discussion, by assessing the relative contributions of water supply and end-user practices to water-borne-pathogen-attributable risks for arsenic mitigation options in a groundwater arsenic impacted area of West Bengal. Paired supplied arsenic-mitigated water and end-use drinking water samples from 102 households were collected and analyzed for arsenic and thermally tolerant coliforms [TTC], used as a proxy for microbiological water quality, We then estimated the DALYs related to key sequelae, diarrheal diseases and cancers, arising from water-borne pathogens and arsenic respectively. We found [TTC] in end-use drinking water to depend only weakly on [TTC] in source-water. End-user practices far outweighed the microbiological quality of supplied water in determining diarrheal disease burden. [TTC] in source water was calculated to contribute <1% of total diarrheal disease burden. No substantial demonstrable pathogen-for-arsenic risk substitution attributable to specific arsenic mitigation of supplied waters was observed, illustrating the benefits of arsenic mitigation measures in the area studied.

  13. Arctic Risk Management (ARMNet) Network: Linking Risk Management Practitioners and Researchers Across the Arctic Regions of Canada and Alaska To Improve Risk, Emergency and Disaster Preparedness and Mitigation Through Comparative Analysis and Applied Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garland, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) was conceived as a trans-disciplinary hub to encourage and facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among American and Canadian academics and practitioners actively engaged in the research, management and mitigation of risks, emergencies and disasters in the Arctic regions. Its aim is to assist regional decision-makers through the sharing of applied research and best practices and to support greater inter-operability and bilateral collaboration through improved networking, joint exercises, workshops, teleconferences, radio programs, and virtual communications (eg. webinars). Most importantly, ARMNet is a clearinghouse for all information related to the management of the frequent hazards of Arctic climate and geography in North America, including new and emerging challenges arising from climate change, increased maritime polar traffic and expanding economic development in the region. ARMNet is an outcome of the Arctic Observing Network (AON) for Long Term Observations, Governance, and Management Discussions, www.arcus.org/search-program. The AON goals continue with CRIOS (www.ariesnonprofit.com/ARIESprojects.php) and coastal erosion research (www.ariesnonprofit.com/webinarCoastalErosion.php) led by the North Slope Borough Risk Management Office with assistance from ARIES (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.). The constituency for ARMNet will include all northern academics and researchers, Arctic-based corporations, First Responders (FRs), Emergency Management Offices (EMOs) and Risk Management Offices (RMOs), military, Coast Guard, northern police forces, Search and Rescue (SAR) associations, boroughs, territories and communities throughout the Arctic. This presentation will be of interest to all those engaged in Arctic affairs, describe the genesis of ARMNet and present the results of stakeholder meetings and webinars designed to guide the next stages of the Project.

  14. Department of Energy--Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Geothermal Program: Geothermal Risk Mitigation Strategies Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None, None

    2008-02-15

    An overview of general financial issues for renewable energy investments; geothermal energy investment barriers and risks; and recommendations for incentives and instruments to be considered to stimulate investment in geothermal energy development.

  15. Visualising volcanic gas plumes with virtual globes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, T. E.; Burton, M.; Pyle, D. M.; Caltabiano, T.

    2009-09-01

    The recent availability of small, cheap ultraviolet spectrometers has facilitated the rapid deployment of automated networks of scanning instruments at several volcanoes, measuring volcanic SO 2 gas flux at high frequency. These networks open up a range of other applications, including tomographic reconstruction of the gas distribution which is of potential use for both risk mitigation, particularly to air traffic, and environmental impact modelling. Here we present a methodology for visualising reconstructed plumes using virtual globes, such as Google Earth, which allows animations of the evolution of the gas plume to be displayed and easily shared on a common platform. We detail the process used to convert tomographically reconstructed cross-sections into animated gas plume models, describe how this process is automated and present results from the scanning network around Mt. Etna, Sicily. We achieved an average rate of one frame every 12 min, providing a good visual representation of the plume which can be examined from all angles. In creating these models, an approximation to turbulent diffusion in the atmosphere was required. To this end we derived the value of the turbulent diffusion coefficient for quiescent conditions near Etna to be around 200- 500m2s-1.

  16. Analysis of Hydrogen Risk Mitigation System for Severe Accidents of EU-APR1400 Using MAAP4 code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mun Soo; Suh, Jung Soo; Bae, Byoung Hwan [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    According to the EUR (European Utility Requirements for LWR Nuclear Power Plants), it is mandatory that the HMS (Hydrogen Mitigation System) of the Eu-APR1400 should be equipped with a passive or automatic hydrogen control system. Considering this requirement, a PAR (Passive Autocatalytic Recombiner) system was adopted for the HMS of the Eu-APR1400. This passive HMS should be evaluated carefully in order to ensure that the HMS has adequate capacity to control hydrogen concentrations during severe accident conditions and to show that the system can satisfy the design requirements of the EUR. In this paper, analyses were carried out to examine the effectiveness of the HMS incorporated into the Eu- APR1400 design. These analyses were performed using the MAAP (Modular Accident Analysis Program) 4 code. in order to identify whether the HMS could control the average hydrogen concentrations in the containment, such that the concentration would not exceed 10 percent by volume: the analyses also considered whether there was the possibility of inadvertent hydrogen combustion in such processes as FA (Flame Acceleration) and DDT (Deflagration to Detonation Transition)

  17. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  18. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

  19. Monitoring and modelling for landslide risk mitigation and reduction. The case study of San Benedetto Ullano (Northern Calabria - Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terranova, Oreste G.; Greco, Venanzio R.; Gariano, Stefano L.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Caloiero, Paola; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    On 28 January 2009, a large rock slide in weathered metamorphic rocks activated at San Benedetto Ullano, triggered by abundant and prolonged rainfall. A detailed geomorphological survey, with periodic inspections during the entire phase of mobilization, was promptly started. Benchmarks were placed along fractures opened on the margins of the landslide, and measurements of surface movements were carried out by a team of volunteers. In addition, a network of real-time monitoring extensometers was implemented, combined with a meteorological station. Surveys and monitoring data allowed to implement an embryonic decisional support system (DSS) to handle the emergency [1]. Between February and April, the landslide showed minor displacements, with a retrogressive type of activity distribution, plus a tendency of enlargement towards the flanks. In early May, the first crisis ended up: the landslide extended for ca. 600 m in length, with an average width of ca. 130 m. Mobilization only involved minor displacements (few decimetres) at the margin of the village, affecting a depth of 15-35 meters along the longitudinal profile. A geological-technical scheme of the slope was drawn, based on data from a set of five exploratory wells, equipped with four inclinometers and one piezometer. Parametric, limit-equilibrium parametric analyses were then performed with respect to fluctuations of the water table: accordingly, the first activation of the landslide was expected - as actually observed - in the central portion of the slope when groundwater table approaches the surface [2]. Thanks to the DSS, further activations occurred in the following years could be properly managed by the Major through closing of roads and evacuation of houses. In fact, between 31 January and 1 February 2010, again due to abundant rainfall, the beginning of a new phase of mobilization was announced by the monitoring network. On 10 February, new mitigation measures were issued; on 11 February, slope

  20. Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

    2009-01-01

    Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

  1. PEMODELAN OPTIMASI MITIGASI RISIKO RANTAI PASOK PRODUK/KOMODITAS JAGUNG Optimization Model Of Corn Supply Chain Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suharjito Suharjito

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Besides more complexes, the agricultural product supply chain also was probabilistic, dynamic and higher dependencies. This happened because of the agricultural product was easy broken, the process of planting, the growth and the harvesting depended the season, the yield had variety form and measurement, and the agricultural product was bulky so that the agricultural product was difficult to be handled. The height of the dependency level and the complexity from the supply chain network of the agricultural product made this chain to be more susceptible to the disturbance. The risk of failure for the supply chain could be happen internally (the relations between the organization and the network of the supplier and externally (between the network of the supplier and its environment. Therefore, the needs for supply chain risk management to avoid a result that can continuously occur at any point in the supply network. The purpose of this study was to describe a model of evaluation and risk management supply chain of agricultural products. Model could identify risks of every level of supply chain and provide solutions that can be done to minimize them. The index value of risk on farm level was 26 % higher than the risk at the level of collector (8.78 % and distributors (8.31 %. The model can optimize farmers’ planting schedules to reduce supply risk and price, while also optimizing the selection of suppliers at the level of collectors and distributors with the consideration of minimizing risk and optimizing profits.   Keywords: Risk evaluation, supply chain management, corn supply risk commodity   ABSTRAK   Selain lebih kompleks, rantai pasok produk pertanian juga bersifat probabilistik, dinamis dan kebergantungan yang tinggi. Hal ini terjadi karena produk pertanian bersifat mudah rusak, proses penanaman, pertumbuhan dan pemanenan tergantung musim, hasil panen memiliki bentuk dan ukuran yang bervariasi, dan produk pertanian bersifat kamba

  2. Impact and effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies on the insurability of nanomaterial production: evidences from industrial case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamaschi, Enrico; Murphy, Finbarr; Poland, Craig A; Mullins, Martin; Costa, Anna L; McAlea, Eamonn; Tran, Lang; Tofail, Syed A M

    2015-01-01

    Workers involved in producing nanomaterials or using nanomaterials in manufacturing plants are likely to have earlier and higher exposure to manufactured/engineered nanomaterials (ENM) than the general population. This is because both the volume handled and the probability of the effluence of 'free' nanoparticles from the handled volume are much higher during a production process than at any other stage in the lifecycle of nanomaterials and nanotechnology-enabled products. Risk assessment (RA) techniques using control banding (CB) as a framework for risk transfer represents a robust theory but further progress on implementing the model is required so that risk can be transferred to insurance companies. Following a review of RA in general and hazard measurement in particular, we subject a Structural Alert Scheme methodology to three industrial case studies using ZrO2 , TiO2 , and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT). The materials are tested in a pristine state and in a remediated (coated) state, and the respective emission and hazard rates are tested alongside the material performance as originally designed. To our knowledge, this is the first such implementation of a CB RA in conjunction with an ENM performance test and offers both manufacturers and underwriters an insight into future applications.

  3. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  4. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  5. High Spatial Resolution Thermal Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  6. Remote Sensing of the Urban Heat Island Effect: Assessment of Risks to Human Health and Development of Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Laymon, Charles A.; Crosson, William; Howell, Burgess F.; Gillani, Noor V.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The growth of cities, both in population and in areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80% of the world's population will live in cities. One of the more egregious side effects of urbanization is the deterioration in air quality as a result of increased vehicular traffic, industrialization and related activities. In the United States alone, under the more stringent air quality guidelines established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1997, nearly 300 counties in 34 states will not meet the new air quality standards for ground level ozone. The mitigation of one the physical/environmental characteristics of urbanization known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, is now being looked at more closely as a possible way to bring down ground level ozone levels in cities and assist states in improving air quality. The UHI results from the replacement of "natural" land covers (e.g., trees, grass) with urban land surface types, such as pavement and buildings. Heat stored in these surfaces is released into the air and results in a "dome" of elevated air temperatures that presides over cities. The effect of this dome of elevated air temperatures is known as the UHI, which is most prevalent about 2-3 hours after sunset on days with intense solar radiation and calm winds. Given the local and regional impacts of the UHI, there are significant potential affects on human health, particularly as related to heat stress and ozone on body temperature regulation and on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. In this study we are using airborne and satellite remote sensing data to analyze how differences in the urban landscape influence or drive the development of the UHI over four U.S. cities. Additionally, we are assessing what the potential impact is on risks to human health, and developing mitigation strategies to make urban areas more environmentally sustainable.

  7. Changes in misuse and abuse of prescription opioids following implementation of Extended-Release and Long-Acting Opioid Analgesic Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucher Bartelson, Becki; Le Lait, M Claire; Green, Jody L; Cepeda, M Soledad; Coplan, Paul M; Maziere, Jean-Yves; Wedin, Gregory P; Dart, Richard C

    2017-07-31

    An unintended consequence of extended-release (ER) and long-acting (LA) prescription opioids is that these formulations can be more attractive to abusers than immediate-release (IR) formulations. The US Food and Drug Administration recognized these risks and approved the ER/LA Opioid Analgesic Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (ER/LA REMS), which has a goal of reducing opioid misuse and abuse and their associated consequences. The primary objective of this analysis is to determine whether ER/LA REMS implementation was associated with decreased reports of misuse and abuse. Data from the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(R)) System Poison Center Program were utilized. Poison center cases are assigned a reason for exposure, a medical outcome, and a level of health care received. Rates adjusted for population and drug utilization were analyzed over time. RADARS System Poison Center Program data indicate a notable decrease in ER/LA opioid rates of intentional abuse and misuse as well as major medical outcomes or hospitalizations following implementation of the ER/LA REMS. While similar decreases were observed for the IR prescription opioid group, the decreasing rate for the ER/LA opioids exceeded the decreasing rates for the IR prescription opioids and was distinctly different than that for the prescription stimulants, indicating that the ER/LA REMS program may have had an additional effect on decreases in opioid abuse and intentional misuse beyond secular trends. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Intrinsic bacterial burden associated with intensive care unit hospital beds: effects of disinfection on population recovery and mitigation of potential infection risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attaway, Hubert H; Fairey, Sarah; Steed, Lisa L; Salgado, Cassandra D; Michels, Harold T; Schmidt, Michael G

    2012-12-01

    Commonly touched items are likely reservoirs from which patients, health care workers, and visitors may encounter and transfer microbes. A quantitative assessment was conducted of the risk represented by the intrinsic bacterial burden associated with bed rails in a medical intensive care unit (MICU), and how disinfection might mitigate this risk. Bacteria present on the rails from 36 patient beds in the MICU were sampled immediately before cleaning and at 0.5, 2.5, 4.5, and 6.5 hours after cleaning. Beds were sanitized with either a bottled disinfectant (BD; CaviCide) or an automated bulk-diluted disinfectant (ABDD; Virex II 256). The majority of bacteria recovered from the bed rails in the MICU were staphylococci, but not methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Vancomycin-resistant enterococci were recovered from 3 beds. Bottled disinfectant reduced the average bacterial burden on the rails by 99%. However, the burden rebounded to 30% of that found before disinfection by 6.5 hours after disinfection. ABDD reduced the burden by an average of 45%, but levels rebounded within 2.5 hours. The effectiveness of both disinfectants was reflected in median reductions to burden of 98% for BD and 95% for ABDD. Cleaning with hospital-approved disinfectants reduced the intrinsic bacterial burden on bed rail surfaces by up to 99%, although the population, principally staphylococci, rebounded quickly to predisinfection levels. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. A cost–benefit analysis of mitigation options for optimal management of risks posed by flow-like phenomena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Narasimhan, Harikrishna; Ferlisi, Settimio; Cascini, Leonardo

    2016-01-01

    Decisions associated with life safety risk management of natural hazards can involve significant potential consequences for public safety. Given possible limitations to available societal resources, it is therefore necessary to establish a clear and rational basis for the allocation of resources......) (Nathwani et al. in Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method. University of Waterloo, Waterloo, 1997; Nathwani et al. in Engineering decisions for life quality: how safe is safe enough? Springer, London, 2009). A case study involving the cost–benefit analysis of selected packages of measures...

  10. Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R. I.

    2009-12-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

  11. Volcanism and associated hazards: The Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.I.

    2009-01-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

  12. Airborne Infectious Agents and Other Pollutants in Automobiles for Domestic Use: Potential Health Impacts and Approaches to Risk Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed A. Sattar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The world total of passenger cars is expected to go from the current one billion to >2.5 billion by 2050. Cars for domestic use account for ~74% of the world’s yearly production of motorized vehicles. In North America, ~80% of the commuters use their own car with another 5.6% travelling as passengers. With the current life-expectancy of 78.6 years, the average North American spends 4.3 years driving a car! This equates to driving 101 minutes/day with a lifetime driving distance of nearly 1.3 million km inside the confined and often shared space of the car with exposure to a mix of potentially harmful pathogens, allergens, endotoxins, particulates, and volatile organics. Such risks may increase in proportion to the unprecedented upsurge in the numbers of family cars globally. Though new technologies may reduce the levels of air pollution from car exhausts and other sources, they are unlikely to impact our in-car exposure to pathogens. Can commercial in-car air decontamination devices reduce the risk from airborne infections and other pollutants? We lack scientifically rigorous protocols to verify the claims of such devices. Here we discuss the essentials of a customized aerobiology facility and test protocols to assess such devices under field-relevant conditions.

  13. Identifying and Mitigating the Impact of the Budget Control Act on High Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base: Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    measured by the likelihood of losing critical capabilities and the consequences of that loss High Risk Industrial Base Sectors & Tiers Likelihood...Risk Sectors and Tiers of the Defense Industrial Base : Assessment Approach to Industrial Base Risks Lirio Avilés, Engineer, MIBP, OUSD(AT&L) Sally...Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=`Ü~åÖÉ= - 326 - Panel 10. Assessing Industrial Base Implications of a Constrained Fiscal Climate Wednesday, May 4, 2016 3:30 p.m. – 5

  14. Compensation in Flood Risk Management with a Focus on Shifts in Compensation Regimes Regarding Prevention, Mitigation and Disaster Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willemijn van Doorn-Hoekveld

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In the Netherlands, the history of water management and water safety especially, goes back centuries. Compensation of damage caused by lawful acts of an administrative body (no-fault liability is developed mostly in the field of water management and has quite a long history as well. The compensation of no-fault liability in the Netherlands since its introduction has been part of public law and not of civil law. This does not mean that the administration cannot be held liable for wrongful actions, in which case private law is applied. There is a strict distinction between wrongful and lawful acts of the administration: both can cause damage, but the way they are compensated differs: for lawful acts, public law is applied and for wrongful acts civil law (tort law is applied. This article only considers public law, because it is the most important branch of law for the compensation of damage caused in the field of water safety. The field of water safety and flood risk management has seen many new developments, of which integration is the latest one. However, the course of flood risk management tends towards more segmentation of responsibilities. No-fault liability and other questions of compensation are also areas that are developing towards more integration. Assessment of  no-fault liability in the field of water safety management cannot be made without taking into consideration the historical development of the responsibility of the state for water management tasks in general. In this contribution, the author addresses the historical development of responsibilities of the state for water management tasks, recent developments in this area and the system of no-fault liability regarding measures to prevent flooding.

  15. Friction in volcanic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Jackie E.; Lavallée, Yan

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic landscapes are amongst the most dynamic on Earth and, as such, are particularly susceptible to failure and frictional processes. In rocks, damage accumulation is frequently accompanied by the release of seismic energy, which has been shown to accelerate in the approach to failure on both a field and laboratory scale. The point at which failure occurs is highly dependent upon strain-rate, which also dictates the slip-zone properties that pertain beyond failure, in scenarios such as sector collapse and pyroclastic flows as well as the ascent of viscous magma. High-velocity rotary shear (HVR) experiments have provided new opportunities to overcome the grand challenge of understanding faulting processes during volcanic phenomena. Work on granular ash material demonstrates that at ambient temperatures, ash gouge behaves according to Byerlee's rule at low slip velocities, but is slip-weakening, becoming increasingly lubricating as slip ensues. In absence of ash along a slip plane, rock-rock friction induces cataclasis and heating which, if sufficient, may induce melting (producing pseudotachylyte) and importantly, vesiculation. The viscosity of the melt, so generated, controls the subsequent lubrication or resistance to slip along the fault plane thanks to non-Newtonian suspension rheology. The shear-thinning behaviour and viscoelasticity of frictional melts yield a tendency for extremely unstable slip, and occurrence of frictional melt fragmentation. This velocity-dependence acts as an important feedback mechanism on the slip plane, in addition to the bulk composition, mineralogy and glass content of the magma, that all influence frictional behaviour. During sector collapse events and in pyroclastic density currents it is the frictional properties of the rocks and ash that, in-part, control the run-out distance and associated risk. In addition, friction plays an important role in the eruption of viscous magmas: In the conduit, the rheology of magma is integral

  16. A multi-data stream assimilation framework for the assessment of volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Patricia M.; Pettijohn, J. Cory

    2016-01-01

    Active volcanoes pose a constant risk to populations living in their vicinity. Significant effort has been spent to increase monitoring and data collection campaigns to mitigate potential volcano disasters. To utilize these datasets to their fullest extent, a new generation of model-data fusion techniques is required that combine multiple, disparate observations of volcanic activity with cutting-edge modeling techniques to provide efficient assessment of volcanic unrest. The purpose of this paper is to develop a data assimilation framework for volcano applications. Specifically, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is adapted to assimilate GPS and InSAR data into viscoelastic, time-forward, finite element models of an evolving magma system to provide model forecasts and error estimations. Since the goal of this investigation is to provide a methodological framework, our efforts are focused on theoretical development and synthetic tests to illustrate the effectiveness of the EnKF and its applicability in physical volcanology. The synthetic tests provide two critical results: (1) a proof of concept for using the EnKF for multi dataset assimilation in investigations of volcanic activity; and (2) the comparison of spatially limited, but temporally dense, GPS data with temporally limited InSAR observations for evaluating magma chamber dynamics during periods of volcanic unrest. Results indicate that the temporally dense information provided by GPS observations results in faster convergence and more accurate model predictions. However, most importantly, the synthetic tests illustrate that the EnKF is able to swiftly respond to data updates by changing the model forecast trajectory to match incoming observations. The synthetic results demonstrate a great potential for utilizing the EnKF model-data fusion method to assess volcanic unrest and provide model forecasts. The development of these new techniques provides: (1) a framework for future applications of rapid data

  17. The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

  18. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although

  19. Lessons for tsunami risk mitigation from recent events occured in Chile: research findings for alerting and evacuation from interdisciplinary perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cienfuegos, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Leon, J.; Gonzalez, G.; Repetto, P.; Urrutia, A.; Tomita, T.; Orellana, V.

    2016-12-01

    In the wake of the 2010 tsunami that hit Chile, a major public effort to promote interdisciplinary disaster reseach was undertaken by the Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (Conicyt) allocating funds to create the Center for Integrated Research on Natural Risks Management (CIGIDEN). This effort has been key in promoting associativity between national and international research teams in order to transform the frequent occurrence of extreme events that affect Chile into an opportunity for interdisciplinary research. In this presentation we will summarize some of the fundamental research findings regarding tsunami forecasting, alerting, and evacuation processes based on interdisciplinary field work campaigns and modeling efforts conducted in the wake of the three most recent destructive events that hit Chile in 2010, 2014, and 2015. One of the main results that we shall emphatize from these findings, is that while research and operational efforts to model and forecast tsunamis are important, technological positivisms should not undermine educational efforts that have proved to be effective in reducing casualties due to tsunamis in the near field. Indeed, in recent events that hit Chile, first tsunami waves reached the adjacent generation zones in time scales comparable with the required time for data gathering and modeling even for the most sophisticated early warning tsunami algorithms currently available. The latter emphasizes self-evacuation from coastal areas, while forecasting and monitoring tsunami hazards remain very important for alerting more distant areas, and are essential for alert cancelling especially when shelf and embayment resonance, and edge wave propagation may produce destructive late tsunami arrivals several hours after the nucleation of the earthquake. By combining some of the recent evidence we have gathered in Chile on seismic source uncertainities (both epistemic and aleatoric), tsunami hydrodynamics, the response

  20. Decision support for mitigating the risk of tree induced transmission line failure in utility rights-of-way.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H M; Camp, A E

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility's (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation's power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  1. Risk mitigation for children exposed to drugs during gestation: A critical role for animal preclinical behavioral testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucker, Irving

    2017-06-01

    Many drugs with unknown safety profiles are administered to pregnant women, placing their offspring at risk. I assessed whether behavioral outcomes for children exposed during gestation to antidepressants, anxiolytics, anti-seizure, analgesic, anti-nausea and sedative medications can be predicted by more extensive animal studies than are part of the FDA approval process. Human plus rodent data were available for only 8 of 33 CNS-active drugs examined. Similar behavioral and cognitive deficits, including autism and ADHD emerged in human offspring and in animal models of these disorders after exposure to fluoxetine, valproic acid, carbamazepine, phenytoin, phenobarbital and acetaminophen. Rodent data helpful in identifying and predicting adverse effects of prenatal drug exposure in children were first generated many years after drugs were FDA-approved and administered to pregnant women. I recommend that enhanced behavioral testing of rodent offspring exposed to drugs prenatally should begin during preclinical drug evaluation and continue during Phase I clinical trials, with findings communicated to physicians and patients in drug labels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Decision Support for Mitigating the Risk of Tree Induced Transmission Line Failure in Utility Rights-of-Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, H. M.; Camp, A. E.

    2010-02-01

    Vegetation management is a critical component of rights-of-way (ROW) maintenance for preventing electrical outages and safety hazards resulting from tree contact with conductors during storms. Northeast Utility’s (NU) transmission lines are a critical element of the nation’s power grid; NU is therefore under scrutiny from federal agencies charged with protecting the electrical transmission infrastructure of the United States. We developed a decision support system to focus right-of-way maintenance and minimize the potential for a tree fall episode that disables transmission capacity across the state of Connecticut. We used field data on tree characteristics to develop a system for identifying hazard trees (HTs) in the field using limited equipment to manage Connecticut power line ROW. Results from this study indicated that the tree height-to-diameter ratio, total tree height, and live crown ratio were the key characteristics that differentiated potential risk trees (danger trees) from trees with a high probability of tree fall (HTs). Products from this research can be transferred to adaptive right-of-way management, and the methods we used have great potential for future application to other regions of the United States and elsewhere where tree failure can disrupt electrical power.

  3. Social and structural violence and power relations in mitigating HIV risk of drug-using women in survival sex work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Kate; Kerr, Thomas; Allinott, Shari; Chettiar, Jill; Shoveller, Jean; Tyndall, Mark W

    2008-02-01

    High rates of violence among street-level sex workers have been described across the globe, while in cities across Canada the disappearance and victimization of drug-using women in survival sex work is ongoing. Given the pervasive levels of violence faced by sex workers over the last decades, and extensive harm reduction and HIV prevention efforts operating in Vancouver, Canada, this research aimed to explore the role of social and structural violence and power relations in shaping the HIV risk environment and prevention practices of women in survival sex work. Through a participatory-action research project, a series of focus group discussions were conceptualized and co-facilitated by sex workers, community and research partners with a total of 46 women in early 2006. Based on thematic, content and theoretical analysis, the following key factors were seen to both directly and indirectly mediate women's agency and access to resources, and ability to practice HIV prevention and harm reduction: at the micro-level, boyfriends as pimps and the 'everyday violence' of bad dates; at the meso-level, a lack of safe places to take dates, and adverse impacts of local policing; and at the macro-level, dopesickness and the need to sell sex for drugs. Analysis of the narratives and daily lived experiences of women sex workers highlight the urgent need for a renewed HIV prevention strategy that moves beyond a solely individual-level focus to structural and environmental interventions, including legal reforms, that facilitate 'enabling environments' for HIV prevention.

  4. Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

    2016-12-01

    The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

  5. The Curious Case of the PDF Converter that Likes Mozart: Dissecting and Mitigating the Privacy Risk of Personal Cloud Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harkous Hamza

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Third party apps that work on top of personal cloud services, such as Google Drive and Drop-box, require access to the user’s data in order to provide some functionality. Through detailed analysis of a hundred popular Google Drive apps from Google’s Chrome store, we discover that the existing permission model is quite often misused: around two-thirds of analyzed apps are over-privileged, i.e., they access more data than is needed for them to function. In this work, we analyze three different permission models that aim to discourage users from installing over-privileged apps. In experiments with 210 real users, we discover that the most successful permission model is our novel ensemble method that we call Far-reaching Insights. Far-reaching Insights inform the users about the data-driven insights that apps can make about them (e.g., their topics of interest, collaboration and activity patterns etc. Thus, they seek to bridge the gap between what third parties can actually know about users and users’ perception of their privacy leakage. The efficacy of Far-reaching Insights in bridging this gap is demonstrated by our results, as Far-reaching Insights prove to be, on average, twice as effective as the current model in discouraging users from installing over-privileged apps. In an effort to promote general privacy awareness, we deployed PrivySeal, a publicly available privacy-focused app store that uses Far-reaching Insights. Based on the knowledge extracted from data of the store’s users (over 115 gigabytes of Google Drive data from 1440 users with 662 installed apps, we also delineate the ecosystem for 3rd party cloud apps from the standpoint of developers and cloud providers. Finally, we present several general recommendations that can guide other future works in the area of privacy for the cloud. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first work that tackles the privacy risk posed by 3rd party apps on cloud platforms in such depth.

  6. Case Study of Risk Mitigation Based on Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) Testing for the International Space Station (ISS) Node 2 Module

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, James Mike; Clanton, Stephen Edward

    2004-01-01

    Within the pressurized elements of the International Space Station (ISS), requirements exist to ensure a safe, habitable environment for the crew. In order to provide this environment, thermal control components work in conjunction with software controls to provide heat rejection for subsystem avionics equipment, for the environmental control system and for experiment payloads. It is essential to ISS operations, mission success and crew safety that necessary testing incorporates the extreme conditions to ensure proper performance. This paper provides a general description and methodology applied to thermal related Hardware/Software Integration (HSI) tests for the ISS Node 2 module. A detailed test plan was developed and implemented with two objectives: the first was for risk mitigation of the thermal control algorithms and software qualification, and the second was for data collection which will substantiate thermalhydraulic models of the Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS). Analytical models are utilized to determine on-orbit performance for conditions and scenarios where the simulation of actual on-orbit system performance is limited by test configuration constraints. Node 2 IATCS HSI activities were performed at the Alenia Spazio facility in Torino, Italy with participation from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Alenia Spazio, Jacobs Engineering Sverdrup (JE Sverdrup) and Boeing.

  7. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites.

  8. Minimizing risks and monitoring safety of an antenatal care intervention to mitigate domestic violence among young Indian women: The Dil Mil trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Suneeta; Subbiah, Kalyani; Chandra, Prabha; Srinivasan, Krishnamachari

    2012-11-01

    Domestic violence - physical, psychological, or sexual abuse perpetrated against women by one or more family members - is highly prevalent in India. However, relatively little research has been conducted on interventions with the potential to mitigate domestic violence and its adverse health consequences, and few resources exist to guide safety planning and monitoring in the context of intervention research. Dil Mil is a promising women's empowerment-based intervention developed in India that engages with young women (daughters-in-law) and their mothers-in-law to mitigate domestic violence and related adverse health outcomes. This paper describes the design of a randomized controlled trial of Dil Mil in Bengaluru, India, with a focus on strategies used to minimize study-related risks and monitor safety. A phase 2 randomized controlled trial using a parallel comparison of the Dil Mil intervention versus standard care will be implemented in three public primary health centers in Bengaluru. Young pregnant women in the first or second trimester of pregnancy will be recruited from antenatal services at study health centers and through community outreach. If eligible and willing, their mother-in-law will also be recruited. Once enrolled, dyads will participate in a baseline interview and then randomized either to the control arm and receive standard care or to the intervention arm and receive standard care plus the Dil Mil intervention. Additional evaluations will be conducted at 3 months and 6 months postpartum. Data will be analyzed to examine the feasibility and safety of the intervention and the effect of the intervention on intermediary outcomes (the empowerment of daughters-in-law and mothers-in-law), incidence of domestic violence among daughters-in-law, and health outcomes including perceived quality of life, psychosocial status and maternal and infant health outcomes. This study offers approaches that may help guide safety planning and monitoring in other

  9. Minimizing risks and monitoring safety of an antenatal care intervention to mitigate domestic violence among young Indian women: The Dil Mil trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnan Suneeta

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Domestic violence - physical, psychological, or sexual abuse perpetrated against women by one or more family members – is highly prevalent in India. However, relatively little research has been conducted on interventions with the potential to mitigate domestic violence and its adverse health consequences, and few resources exist to guide safety planning and monitoring in the context of intervention research. Dil Mil is a promising women’s empowerment-based intervention developed in India that engages with young women (daughters-in-law and their mothers-in-law to mitigate domestic violence and related adverse health outcomes. This paper describes the design of a randomized controlled trial of Dil Mil in Bengaluru, India, with a focus on strategies used to minimize study-related risks and monitor safety. Methods/design A phase 2 randomized controlled trial using a parallel comparison of the Dil Mil intervention versus standard care will be implemented in three public primary health centers in Bengaluru. Young pregnant women in the first or second trimester of pregnancy will be recruited from antenatal services at study health centers and through community outreach. If eligible and willing, their mother-in-law will also be recruited. Once enrolled, dyads will participate in a baseline interview and then randomized either to the control arm and receive standard care or to the intervention arm and receive standard care plus the Dil Mil intervention. Additional evaluations will be conducted at 3 months and 6 months postpartum. Data will be analyzed to examine the feasibility and safety of the intervention and the effect of the intervention on intermediary outcomes (the empowerment of daughters-in-law and mothers-in-law, incidence of domestic violence among daughters-in-law, and health outcomes including perceived quality of life, psychosocial status and maternal and infant health outcomes. Discussion This study offers

  10. Spatio-temporal occurrence of eruptions in El Hierro (Canary Islands). Sequential steps for long-term volcanic hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; María Morales, José; Galindo, Inés; Geyer, Adelina

    2014-05-01

    Long term volcanic hazard assessment requires the attainment of several sequential steps, including the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios to get qualitative and representative results. Volcanic hazard assessment has not been yet systematically conducted in the Canary Islands, in spite of being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest and latest island affected by an eruption in the Canary Islands. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how), the spatial probability (where), and the temporal probability (when) on the island. Looking at the past eruptive behavior of the island, and assuming future eruptive patterns will be similar, we try to identify the most likely set of volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards that could occur in the future (eg. lava flows, pyroclastic fallout, and pyroclastic density currents) and estimate their probability of occurrence. The final result shows the first volcanic hazard map of the island. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of long term volcanic hazard at El Hierro Island with regard to previous studies. The obtained results should represent the main pillars on which to build risk mitigation programs as it is required for territorial planning and to develop emergency plans. This research was partially funded by IGME, CSIC and the European Commission (FT7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: "VUELCO"), and MINECO grant GL2011-16144-E.

  11. Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2010-05-01

    and benefits of mitigation actions have to be evaluated and compared, weighting them with the probability of occurrence of a specific threatening volcanic event. An action should be taken when the benefit of that action outweighs the costs. It is worth remarking that this strategy does not guarantee to recommend a decision that we would have taken with the benefit of hindsight. However, this strategy will be successful over the long-tem. Furthermore, it has the overwhelming advantage of providing a quantitative decision rule that is set before any emergency, and thus it will be justifiable at any stage of the process. In our present application, we are trying to set up a cost-benefit scheme for the call of an evacuation to protect people in the Auckland Volcanic Field against base surge invasion. Considering the heterogeneity of the urban environment and the size of the region at risk, we propose a cost-benefit scheme that is space dependent, to take into account higher costs when an eruption threatens sensible sites for the city and/or the nation, such as the international airport or the harbour. Finally, we compare our findings with the present Contingency Plan for Auckland.

  12. Mitigating amphibian chytridiomycosis in nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Trenton W. J.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Martel, An; Pasmans, Frank; Muths, Erin L.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Weldon, Che; Fisher, Matthew C.; Bosch, Jaime

    2016-01-01

    Amphibians across the planet face the threat of population decline and extirpation caused by the disease chytridiomycosis. Despite consensus that the fungal pathogens responsible for the disease are conservation issues, strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are, at best, nascent. Reducing risk associated with the movement of amphibians, non-amphibian vectors and other sources of infection remains the first line of defence and a primary objective when mitigating the threat of disease in wildlife. Amphibian-associated chytridiomycete fungi and chytridiomycosis are already widespread, though, and we therefore focus on discussing options for mitigating the threats once disease emergence has occurred in wild amphibian populations. All strategies have shortcomings that need to be overcome before implementation, including stronger efforts towards understanding and addressing ethical and legal considerations. Even if these issues can be dealt with, all currently available approaches, or those under discussion, are unlikely to yield the desired conservation outcome of disease mitigation. The decision process for establishing mitigation strategies requires integrated thinking that assesses disease mitigation options critically and embeds them within more comprehensive strategies for the conservation of amphibian populations, communities and ecosystems.

  13. Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

    2013-12-01

    Volatiles in magmas are the driving force of volcanic eruptions and quantification of volcanic gas flux and composition is important for the volcano monitoring. Recently we developed a portable gas sensor system (Multi-GAS) to quantify the volcanic gas composition by measuring volcanic plumes and obtained volcanic gas compositions of actively degassing volcanoes. As the Multi-GAS measures variation of volcanic gas component concentrations in the pumped air (volcanic plume), we need to bring the apparatus into the volcanic plume. Commonly the observer brings the apparatus to the summit crater by himself but such measurements are not possible under conditions of high risk of volcanic eruption or difficulty to approach the summit due to topography etc. In order to overcome these difficulties, volcanic plume measurements were performed by using manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. The volcanic plume measurements by manned aerial vehicles, however, are also not possible under high risk of eruption. The strict regulation against the modification of the aircraft, such as installing sampling pipes, also causes difficulty due to the high cost. Application of the UAVs for the volcanic plume measurements has a big advantage to avoid these problems. The Multi-GAS consists of IR-CO2 and H2O gas analyzer, SO2-H2O chemical sensors and H2 semiconductor sensor and the total weight ranges 3-6 kg including batteries. The necessary conditions of the UAV for the volcanic plumes measurements with the Multi-GAS are the payloads larger than 3 kg, maximum altitude larger than the plume height and installation of the sampling pipe without contamination of the exhaust gases, as the exhaust gases contain high concentrations of H2, SO2 and CO2. Up to now, three different types of UAVs were applied for the measurements; Kite-plane (Sky Remote) at Miyakejima operated by JMA, Unmanned airplane (Air Photo Service) at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano, and Unmanned helicopter (Yamaha) at Sakurajima

  14. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  15. Assessing and optimizing the performance of infrasound networks to monitor volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tailpied, Dorianne; Le Pichon, Alexis; Marchetti, Emanuele; Assink, Jelle; Vergniolle, Sylvie

    2017-01-01

    We propose a numerical modeling technique based on a frequency-dependent attenuation relation to assess, quantify and optimize the performance of any arbitrary infrasound network to monitor explosive sources such as volcanic eruptions. Simulations are further enhanced by including realistic sources and propagation effects. We apply our approach to both hemispheres by considering the Euro-Mediterranean and the Eastern Australian regions. In these regions, we use quasi-permanent infrasound signals from Mt. Etna recorded in Tunisia and from Mt. Yasur recorded in New Caledonia. These well-instrumented volcanoes offer a unique opportunity to validate our attenuation model. In particular, accurate comparisons between near- and far-field recordings demonstrate the potential of the proposed methodology to remotely monitor volcanoes. A good agreement is found between modeled and observed results, especially when incorporating representative 10 m s-1 wind perturbations in the atmospheric specifications according to previous campaign measurements. To optimize the network layout in order to ensure the best monitoring of the volcanoes, we proceed through a grid search to find optimum locations of an additional array. We show that adding one array at an appropriate location in both regions under study could significantly improve detections half of the year. The application of the proposed methodology can provide in near real-time a realistic confidence level of volcanic eruption detections, useful to mitigate the risk of aircrafts encountering volcanic ash.

  16. Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

    2014-05-01

    In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

  17. Multi-scale earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland and countermeasures for the preparedness, mitigation, and management: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z.; Jiang, C.; Ma, T.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland exhibit multi-scale characteristics. Temporal scales from centuries to months, spatial scales from the whole mainland to specific engineering structures, and energy scales from great disastrous earthquakes to small earthquakes causing social disturbance and economic loss, feature the complexity of earthquake disasters. Coping with such complex challenge, several research and application projects have been undertaken since recent years. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake contributed much to the launching and conducting of these projects. Understandings of the scientific problems and technical approaches taken in the mainstream studies in the Chinese mainland have no significant difference from those in the international scientific communities, albeit using of some of the terminologies have "cultural differences" - for instance, in the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the terminology "earthquake forecast/prediction (study)" is generally used in a much broader sense, mainly indicating time-dependent seismic hazard at different spatio-temporal scales. Several scientific products have been produced serving the society in different forms. These scientific products have unique academic merits due to the long-term persistence feature and the forward forecast nature, which are all essential for the evaluation of the technical performance and the falsification of the scientific ideas. On the other hand, using the language of the "actor network theory (ANT)" in science studies (or the sociology of science), at present, the hierarchical "actors' network", making the science transformed to the actions of the public and government for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of multi-scale earthquake disasters, is still in need of careful construction and improvement.

  18. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  19. The Yucca Mountain probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)] [and others

    1996-12-01

    The Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was conducted to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. The PVHA project is one of the first major expert judgment studies that DOE has authorized for technical assessments related to the Yucca Mountain project. The judgments of members of a ten-person expert panel were elicited to ensure that a wide range of approaches were considered for the hazard analysis. The results of the individual elicitations were then combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of alternative scientific interpretations. This assessment, which focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption.

  20. Assessing volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain using expert judgment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Nesbit, J. [Department of Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-01

    A study to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, termed the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, is being sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This assessment, which is focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will eventually provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption. To ensure that a wide range of approaches are considered in the hazard analysis, judgments of members of an expert panel will be elicited. The results of the individual elicitations will be combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of scientific interpretations. This paper outlines the hazard model components and the procedures for eliciting expert judgments.