Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

1998-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

2013-03-01

The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Connor, Charles

2014-05-01

Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations: Methods and Examples in Site Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-07-01

To provide guidance on the protection of nuclear installations against the effects of volcanoes, the IAEA published in 2012 IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. SSG-21 addresses hazards relating to volcanic phenomena, and provides recommendations and general guidance for evaluation of these hazards. Unlike seismic hazard assessments, models for volcanic hazard assessment have not undergone decades of review, evaluation and testing for suitability in evaluating hazards at proposed nuclear installations. Currently in volcanology, scientific developments and detailed methodologies to model volcanic phenomena are evolving rapidly.This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in SSG-21. Although SSG-21 develops a logical framework for conducting a volcanic hazard assessment, this publication demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations in SSG-21 through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations

UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

2014-05-01

Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

Volcanic risk: the responsibility of science in communication

Science.gov (United States)

Piccione, Caterina

2013-04-01

The knowledge of the places where we live comes both from the experience handed down from one generation to the other and from scientific knowledge. In some cases, natural risks are "invisible", such as earthquakes, in some other cases, natural risks are seemingly "invisible", such as a wall in danger of collapse or a valley in a flood zone. And besides all this, there is volcanic risk, where the power of the forces of nature appears in all its beauty and majesty. The possibility to see volcanoes, to perceive their changes, to observe them closely and the need to live with them, makes it very important for the population living in these areas to have an adequate knowledge of the risk, a knowledge that should be based on scientific research. In Italy the experience of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in the Vesuvio area, in the Aeolian Islands and around Etna shows how vital it is to make people aware of volcanic risk. Thanks to the support of the scientific community, the population can develop the best possible coexistence with volcanoes and with the risk they represent. These are extreme situations, but they are the starting point for educational and informative activities continuing to evolve and upgrade in parallel to the availability of new technologies and media and the progress of research that INGV has been conducting for years through specific projects. The scientific community and individual researchers have the ethical duty to share with the community the knowledge on risk, a responsibility that becomes especially important in those areas affected by volcanic risk. It is from this educational action that depends on the awareness of the populations with regard to the risk they are exposed to, that results in a responsible behavior in case of emergency, and that becomes the main variable for the safety of communities coexisting with active volcanoes.

Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde, through a participatory approach: which outcome?

Science.gov (United States)

Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

2014-09-01

This research paper presents the outcomes of Work Package 5 (socio-economical vulnerability assessment and community-based disaster risk reduction) of the MIAVITA (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) research programme conducted on Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 years (May 2010 to January 2012), of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km wide caldera of the volcano inside Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the programme included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people to volcanic threats is linked to daily access to sources of livelihood, especially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk to their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such an objective, a participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participatory aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability of (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties in involving more

Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Antonio

2016-04-01

Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tullio Ricci

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

Erionite and other fibrous zeolites in volcanic environments: the need for a risk assessment in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Cavallo, A.; Rimoldi, B.

2012-04-01

In many European countries in the '90s there was a significant increase in mortality linked to mesothelioma, a cancer of the lung, involving pleural, pericardial and peritoneal mesothelial cells, which unfortunately has no cure at present. Though most of these cases have been attributed to t asbestos, in Italy at least 17% of cases of mesothelioma is still not fully explained. In the years between 1990 and 2000, it was discovered that the inhalation of erionite fibers (a zeolite group mineral, that can be found in altered volcanic rocks) was the cause of a regional epidemic of mesothelioma in some villages of Cappadocia (Turkey). Erionite, in fact, was recently included in Class 1 (highly carcinogenic) by the World Health Organization, up to 800 times more carcinogenic than asbestos; on the other hand, little is known about the toxicity of other fibrous zeolites, commonly intergrown with erionite, such as offretite and mordenite. Erionite was reported in different regions of Italy; nevertheless, a systematic mapping of its distribution, the quantification of its presence in rocks and data about airborne fibers are still missing. We carried out first preliminary sampling in Veneto, in Tertiary volcanic rocks, mainly hydrothermally altered basalts. The first mineralogical investigations by means of XRPD, SEM-EDS and OM confirmed the presence of small amounts of erionite and abundant fibrous offretite, in vugs of basaltic rocks. Intergrowths and overgrowths with other fibrous minerals are quite common, and the morphological-chemical similarities among these zeolites pose a special analytical problem, with the need of combining different techniques. Our first findings, combined with the fact that zeolites are important industrial minerals, emphasize the need of a risk assessment in Italy and Europe, because there are no systematic studies on the distribution of erionite or similar fibrous zeolites in the environment. The knowledge of the epidemiology of mesothelioma

The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2008-03-01

This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political

Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

Reducing volcanic risk on Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde, through a participatory approach: which out coming?

Science.gov (United States)

Texier-Teixeira, P.; Chouraqui, F.; Perrillat-Collomb, A.; Lavigne, F.; Cadag, J. R.; Grancher, D.

2013-11-01

This research paper presents the outcomes of the Work Package 5 (Socio-economical Vulnerability Assessment and Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction) of the MIAVITA Research Program (MItigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) conducted in Fogo Volcano, Cape-Verde. The study lasted for almost 3 yr (May 2010-January 2012) of which most of the time was spent in the village of Chã das Caldeiras, situated within the 9 km-wide caldera of the volcano inside the Fogo Natural Park. The objectives of the program included assessment of the vulnerability of the community at risk in terms of livelihoods, access to resources, and power relations between the local people and the different public and private institutions. These are important factors that need to be investigated in order to understand the root causes of vulnerability of the local people. This case study shows that the voluntary exposure of people at volcanic threats is linked with daily access to sources of livelihood specially agriculture and tourism. This is despite the perception of people of the risk on their lives and properties. In order to counter the factors of vulnerability, the study also aimed to identify and enhance local capacities. To achieve such objective, a Participatory 3-Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) activity was conducted to facilitate the dialogue between the local people and the different stakeholders as well as to prepare plans and measures to reduce volcanic risk. The P3DM was a half success considering that it has not yet led to an operational plan which takes into account the local capacities. The main reasons included (1) the non-participative aspect of the project at the beginning which should have identified priorities for people and let them lead the project to ensure the sustainability (2) deep conflicts within the community which complicated the focus group discussions around the 3-D map, and the difficulties to involve more marginalized people

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

Science.gov (United States)

Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang

1994-01-01

Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP)

Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

2015-04-01

Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

Seismic and volcanic risk in the Azores: reasons to stay in endangered places

OpenAIRE

Arroz, Ana Margarida Moura; Palos, Ana Cristina Pires; Rego, Isabel Estrela

2008-01-01

SRA 2008 Annual Meeting "Risk Analysis: The Science and the Art", Boston, Massachusetts, Sunday, 7 December 2008 to Wednesday, 10 December 2008. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions have been regular phenomena throughout the Azores' six centuries of history. In spite of the knowledge already gathered by local historians and Earth sciences researchers, there are no scientific data on the socio-cultural dimensions of volcanic and seismic risks. A study – TOPOI METUS. Social cosmographies of d...

Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang.

1992-01-01

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85 x 10 -6 /yr, 1.26 x 10 -5 /yr). Also, using these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10 4 years is (1.0 x 10 -3 , 6.7 x 10 -3 ), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruce M. Crowe; Frank V. Perry; Greg A. Valentine; Lynn M. Bowker

1998-12-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

2015-12-01

Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

2010-09-01

The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2013-12-01

This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

1997-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

2016-04-01

In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

2016-12-01

Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

2015-05-01

The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

2017-07-25

In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

Major-element geochemistry of the Silent Canyon--Black Mountain peralkaline volcanic centers, northwestern Nevada Test Site: applications to an assessment of renewed volcanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Sargent, K.A.

1979-01-01

The Silent Canyon and Black Mountain volcanic centers are located in the northern part of the Nevada Test Site. The Silent Canyon volcanic center is a buried cauldron complex of Miocene age (13 to 15 m.y.). Black Mountain volcanic center is an elliptical-shaped cauldron complex of late Miocene age. The lavas and tuffs of the two centers comprise a subalkaline-peralkaline association. Rock types range from quartz normative subalkaline trachyte and rhyolite to peralkaline commendite. The Gold Flat Member of the Thirsty Canyon Tuff (Black Mountain) is a pantellerite. The major-element geochemistry of the Black Mountain--Silent Canyon volcanic centers differ in the total range and distribution of SiO 2 , contents, the degree of peralkalinity (molecular Na 2 O + K 2 O > Al 2 O 3 ) and in the values of total iron and alumina through the range of rock types. These differences indicate that the suites were unrelated and evolved from differing magma bodies. The Black Mountain volcanic cycle represents a renewed phase of volcanism following cessation of the Timber Mountain--Silent Canyon volcanic cycles. Consequently, there is a small but numerically incalculable probability of recurrence of Black Mountain-type volcanism within the Nevada Test Site region. This represents a potential risk with respect to deep geologic storage of high-level radioactive waste at the Nevada Test Site

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Becerril

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Risk assessment of natural disasters in the course of selection of nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Weicheng; Ai Guigen

1995-01-01

Natural disasters are calamities which bring about enormous damage to human beings and their accommodations and equipment. Based on the research of disaster risk and example study of volcanism, we tried to carry out the risk assessment of natural disasters which potentially occur in the candidate area of nuclear waste disposal by three steps of analyses, defining the most frequent occurring area of disasters, determining the parameters of risk assessment and dividing the most dangerous site and risk grades

Assessment and Evaluation of Volcanic Rocks Used as Construction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessment and Evaluation of Volcanic Rocks Used as Construction Materials in the City of Addis Ababa. ... So, field observation and sample collection for laboratory investigations were conducted on six selected target areas of the city periphery. In doing so, the compressive strength, open porosity, water absorption and ...

Residentś risk perception of and response to SO2 risk in east Iceland during the volcanic eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun 2014-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún

2016-04-01

Many Icelandic communities are exposed to volcanic eruptions every two to three years. In order to reduce risk and enhance resilience in communities exposed to volcanic hazards, involvement of local communities is essential during all phases of disaster management, from prevention and preparedness, to response and recovery. Preparedness plans for volcanic eruptions are in place for many of the volcanic hazards in Iceland especially evacuation of residents due to immediate threat from glacial outburst floods from sub-glacial eruptions. Some of the recent risks associated with volcanic eruptions have had a slow onset (volcanic gas) while others have had a sudden onset (volcanic ash). The risks are both linked to air quality in inhabited areas and dispersal are highly dependent on prevailing winds so timely forecast and modelling is needed in order to inform the population about the risk. Without preparedness plans many communities in Iceland were exposed to an unanticipated volcanic gas risks from Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in 2014-2015 during an eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun. With no system in place to measure the highly toxic gas from the eruption, the Environmental Agency, The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management and the Directorate of Health set up a system with over 40 handheld gas detectors and online links to 7 detectors around Iceland to monitor the gas. The defined health limit of SO2 is 350 μg/m3 for one hour, while 2600 μg/m3 for 15 minutes for working outdoors. Nevertheless, some communities in Iceland experienced much higher values and the highest measured concentration in communities during the eruption was 21.000 μg/m3. When the concentration of SO2 reached the level of >1000 μg/m3 a warning was issued and SMS text messages were sent to all mobile phones in the affected area. In order to engage with residents during the eruption the Civil Protection and local authorities, Directorate of Health, scientist and specialists

A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

2013-04-01

Approximately 10% of the world's population lives within 100 km of historically active volcanoes. Consequently, considerable critical infrastructure is at risk of being affected by volcanic eruptions, where critical infrastructure includes: electricity and wastewater networks; water supply systems; transport routes; communications; and buildings. Appropriate risk management strategies are required to minimise the risk to infrastructure, which necessitates detailed understanding of both volcanic hazards and infrastructure parameters and vulnerabilities. To address this, we are developing a database of the physical impacts and vulnerability of critical infrastructure observed during/following historic eruptions, placed in the context of event-specific volcanic hazard and infrastructure parameters. Our database considers: volcanic hazard parameters for each case study eruption (tephra thickness, dynamic pressure of PDCs, etc.); inventory of infrastructure elements present within the study area (geographical extent, age, etc.); the type and number of impacts and disruption caused to particular infrastructure sectors; and the quantified assessment of the vulnerability of built environments. Data have been compiled from a wide range of literature, focussing in particular on impact assessment studies which document in detail the damage sustained by critical infrastructure during a given eruption. We are creating a new vulnerability ranking to quantify the vulnerability of built environments affected by volcanic eruptions. The ranking is based upon a range of physical impacts and service disruption criteria, and is assigned to each case study. This ranking will permit comparison of vulnerabilities between case studies as well as indicate expected vulnerability during future eruptions. We are also developing hazard intensity thresholds indicating when specific damage states are expected for different critical infrastructure sectors. Finally, we have developed a data quality

ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

2016-08-01

Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

Assessment of the atmospheric impact of volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Sigurdsson, H.

1988-01-01

The dominant global impact of volcanic activity is likely to be related to the effects of volcanic gases on the Earth's atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions from individual volcanic arc eruptions are likely to cause increases in the stratospheric optical depth that result in surface landmass temperature decline of 2 to 3 K for less than a decade. Trachytic and intermediate magmas are much more effective in this regard than high-silica magmas, and may also lead to extensive ozone depletion due to effect of halogens and magmatic water. Given the assumed relationship between arc volcanism and subduction rate, and the relatively small variation in global spreading rates in the geologic record, it is unlikely that the rates of arc volcanism have varied greatly during the Cenozoic. Hotspot related basaltic fissure eruptions in the subaerial environment have a higher mass yield of sulfur, but lofting of the valcanic aerosol to levels above the tropopause is required for a climate impact. High-latitude events, such as the Laki 1783 eruption can easily penetrate the tropopause and enter the stratosphere, but formation of a stratospheric volcanic aerosol form low-latitude effusive basaltic eruptions is problematical, due to the elevated low-latitude tropopause. Due to the high sulfur content of hotspot-derived basaltic magmas, their very high mass eruption rates and the episodic behavior, hotspots must be regarded as potentially major modifiers of Earth's climate through the action of their volcanic volatiles on the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere.

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

ASI-Volcanic Risk System (SRV): a pilot project to develop EO data processing modules and products for volcanic activity monitoring, first results.

Science.gov (United States)

Silvestri, M.; Musacchio, M.; Buongiorno, M. F.; Dini, L.

2009-04-01

The Project called Sistema Rischio Vulcanico (SRV) is funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in the frame of the National Space Plan 2003-2005 under the Earth Observations section for natural risks management. The SRV Project is coordinated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) which is responsible at national level for the volcanic monitoring. The project philosophy is to implement, by incremental versions, specific modules which allow to process, store and visualize through Web GIS tools geophysical parameters suitable for volcanic risk management. The ASI-SRV is devoted to the development of an integrated system based on Earth Observation (EO) data to respond to specific needs of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) and improve the monitoring of Italian active volcanoes during all the risk phases (Pre Crisis, Crisis and Post Crisis). The ASI-SRV system provides support to risk managers during the different volcanic activity phases and its results are addressed to the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC). SRV provides the capability to manage the import many different EO data into the system, it maintains a repository where the acquired data have to be stored and generates selected volcanic products. The processing modules for EO Optical sensors data are based on procedures jointly developed by INGV and University of Modena. This procedures allow to estimate a number of parameters such as: surface thermal proprieties, gas, aerosol and ash emissions and to characterize the volcanic products in terms of composition and geometry. For the analysis of the surface thermal characteristics, the available algorithms allow to extract information during the prevention phase and during the Warning and Crisis phase. In the prevention phase the thermal analysis is directed to the identification of temperature variation on volcanic structure which may indicate a change in the volcanic activity state. At the moment the only sensor that

Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2015-04-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

CERN Document Server

Bevilacqua, Andrea

2016-01-01

This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

2014-05-01

In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

2017-12-01

Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-10-15

This publication provides comprehensive and updated guidance for site evaluation in relation to volcanic hazards. It includes recommendations on assessing the volcanic hazards at a nuclear installation site, in order to identify and characterize, in a comprehensive manner, all potentially hazardous phenomena that may be associated with future volcanic events. It describes how some of these volcanic phenomena may affect the acceptability of the selected site, resulting in exclusion of a site or determining the corresponding design basis parameters for the installation. This Safety Guide is applicable to both existing and new sites, and a graded approach is recommended to cater for all types of nuclear installations. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of volcanic hazard assessment; 3. General recommendations; 4. Necessary information and investigations (database); 5. Screening of volcanic hazards; 6. Site specific volcanic hazard assessment; 7. Nuclear installations other than nuclear power plants; 8. Monitoring and preparation for response; 9. Management system for volcanic hazard assessment; Annex I: Volcanic hazard scenarios; Annex II: Worldwide sources of information.

Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

2016-04-01

The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1980-08-01

An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.

1979-01-01

Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Zuccaro

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

1997-09-23

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

2009-12-01

Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Marrero

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

2014-12-01

Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

2001-01-01

Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Landeg, O.

Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

2017-04-01

This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

Managing the effects of accelerated glacial melting on volcanic collapse and debris flows: Planchon-Peteroa Volcano, Southern Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Tormey, Daniel

2010-11-01

Glaciated mountains are among the most sensitive environments to climatic changes, and recent work has shown that large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes. With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth's most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life. This paper illustrates these effects in well-studied settings, focusing on the end-Pleistocene to Holocene glaciovolcanic growth and destruction of the cone of the active volcano Planchon-Peteroa in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at latitude 35° 15' S, along the border between Chile and Argentina. The development of the volcano over the last 14,000 years illustrates how glacial melting and magmatic activity can trigger landslides and sector collapses. Planchon had a large sector collapse that produced a highly mobile and erosive debris avalanche 11,000 years BP, and other slope instabilities during the end-Pleistocene/early Holocene deglaciation. The summit amphitheater left after the sector collapse was subject to alternating periods of glaciation and melting-induced lake formation. Breaching of the moraine dams then formed lahars and landslides originating at the western edge of the summit amphitheater, and the deposits are preserved along the western flank of the volcano. Deep incision of moraine deposits further down the western slope of the volcano indicates that the lahars and landslides were water-rich and had high erosive power. As illustrated by Planchon-Peteroa, the interplay among glacial growth and melting, magmatic activity, and slope stability is complex, but must be accounted for in volcanic hazard assessment. Planchon-Peteroa currently has the southernmost temperate zone

The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rougier, Jonathan; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Brown, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude-frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude-frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions' (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

2016-04-01

In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

2014-12-01

Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.

2004-01-01

Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai'i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Huala??lai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults ( n =462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Huala??lai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an 'unrealistic optimism bias' and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as

Risks associated with volcanic ash fallout from Mt.Etna with reference to industrial filtration systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Ancione, Giuseppa; Salzano, Ernesto; Maschio, Giuseppe

2013-01-01

The recent eruption of the Icelandic volcano has focused the worldwide attention on volcanic ash effects for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities. This paper aims to study of technological (industrial) accidental scenarios triggered by ash fallout and, more specifically, to define and quantify the potential damage on filtration systems. Malfunctions due to the filter clogging and service interruptions caused by the rupture of the filtering surface have been analysed in order to define the vulnerability of the equipment to such damages. Results are given in terms of threshold values of deposit on the filtering surface and exceedance probability curves of ash concentrations and the duration of the ash emission. This data can be easily implemented in the standard risk assessment with the aim to include the estimation of Natural-Technological (Na-Tech) hazards

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

2000-01-01

, 1999, 2000, 2001; Hildreth and Fierstein, 2000), only half of which had been named previously—the four stratovolcanoes Mounts Katmai, Mageik, Martin, and Griggs; the cone cluster called Trident Volcano; Snowy Mountain; and the three lava domes Novarupta, Mount Cerberus, and Falling Mountain. The most recent eruptions were from Trident Volcano (1953–74), but there have been at least eight other, probably larger, explosive events from the volcanoes of this area in the past 10,000 years. This report summarizes what has been learned about the volcanic histories and styles of eruption of all these volcanoes. Many large earthquakes occurred before and during the 1912 eruption, and the cluster of Katmai volcanoes remains seismically active. Because we expect an increase in seismicity before eruptions, seismic monitoring efforts to detect volcanic unrest and procedures for eruption notification and dissemination of information are included in this report. Most at risk from future eruptions of the Katmai volcanic cluster are (1) air-traffic corridors of the North Pacific, including those approaching Anchorage, one of the Pacific’s busiest international airports, (2) several regional airports and military air bases, (3) fisheries and navigation on the Naknek Lake system and Shelikof Strait, (4) pristine wildlife habitat, particularly that of the Alaskan brown bear, and (5) tourist facilities in and near Katmai National Park.

Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

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Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

Environmental and anthropogenic factors affecting the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash in vitro

Science.gov (United States)

Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Damby, David E.; Ayris, Paul M.; Barošová, Hana; Geers, Christoph; Petri-Fink, Alke; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Clift, Martin J. D.

2016-04-01

Human exposure to inhalable volcanic ash particles following an eruption is a health concern, as respirable-sized particles can potentially contribute towards adverse respiratory health effects, such as the onset or exacerbation of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Although there is substantial information on the mineralogical properties of volcanic ash that may influence its biological reactivity, knowledge as to how external factors, such as air pollution, contribute to and augment the potential reactivity is limited. To determine the respiratory effects of volcanic particle interactions with anthropogenic pollution and volcanic gases we will experimentally assess: (i) physicochemical characteristics of volcanic ash relevant to respiratory toxicity; (ii) the effects of simultaneously inhaling anthropogenic pollution (i.e. diesel exhaust particles (DEP)) and volcanic ash (of different origins); (iii) alteration of volcanic ash toxicity following interaction with volcanic gases. In order to gain a first understanding of the biological impact of the respirable fraction of volcanic ash when inhaled with DEP in vitro, we used a sophisticated 3D triple cell co-culture model of the human alveolar epithelial tissue barrier. The multi-cellular system was exposed to DEP [0.02 mg/mL] and then exposed to either a single or repeated dose of well-characterised respirable volcanic ash (0.26 ± 0.09 or 0.89 ± 0.29 μg/cm2, respectively) from the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat for a period of 24 hours using a pseudo-air liquid interface approach. Cultures were subsequently assessed for adverse biological endpoints including cytotoxicity, oxidative stress and (pro)-inflammatory responses. Results indicated that the combination of DEP and respirable volcanic ash at sub-lethal concentrations incited a significant release of pro-inflammatory markers that was greater than the response for either DEP or volcanic ash, independently. Further work is planned, to determine if

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

2010-11-01

A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

2014-12-01

Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

Mus musculus bone fluoride concentration as a useful biomarker for risk assessment of skeletal fluorosis in volcanic areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Linhares, Diana; Camarinho, Ricardo; Garcia, Patrícia Ventura; Rodrigues, Armindo Dos Santos

2018-08-01

Fluoride is often found in elevated concentrations in volcanic areas due to the release of magmatic fluorine as hydrogen fluorine through volcanic degassing. The exposure to high levels of fluoride can affect the processes of bone formation and resorption causing skeletal fluorosis, a pathology that can easily be mistaken for other skeletal diseases. In this study, we aimed to determine if fluoride concentration in the femoral bone of wild populations of the house mouse (Mus musculus) is a good biomarker of exposure to active volcanic environments naturally enriched in fluoride, allowing their use in biomonitoring programs. The fluoride concentration of the whole femoral bone of 9 mice from Furnas (5 males and 4 females) and 33 mice from Rabo de Peixe (16 males and 17 females) was measured by the potentiometric method with a fluoride ion selective electrode. Fluoride in bones was significantly higher in the mice from Furnas when compared with the mice from Rabo de Peixe (616.5 ± 129.3 μg F/g vs. 253.8 ± 10.5 μg F/g). Accumulation rates were also significantly higher in the mice collected in Furnas when compared with Rabo de Peixe individuals (3.84 ± 0.52 μg F/day vs. 1.22 ± 0.06 μg F/day). The results demonstrate a significant association between exposure to fluoride in the active volcanic environment and fluoride content in bone, revealing that bone fluoride concentration is a suitable biomarker of chronic environmental exposure to fluoride. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geology and petrology of the basalts of Crater Flat: applications to volcanic risk assessment for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaniman, D.; Crowe, B.

1981-06-01

Volcanic hazard studies of the south-central Great Basin, Nevada, are being conducted for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. This report presents the results of field and petrologic studies of the basalts of Crater Flat, a sequence of Pliocene to Quaternary-age volcanic centers located near the southwestern part of the Nevada Test Site. Crater Flat is one of several basaltic fields constituting a north-northeast-trending volcanic belt of Late Cenozoic age extending from southern Death Valley, California, through the Nevada Test Site region to central Nevada. The basalts of Crater Flat are divided into three distinct volcanic cycles. The cycles are characterized by eruption of basalt magma of hawaiite composition that formed cinder cone clusters and associated lava flows. Total volume of erupted magma for respective cycles is given. The basalts of Crater Flat are sparsely to moderately porphyritic; the major phenocryst phase is olivine, with lesser amounts of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and rare amphibole. The consistent recurrence of evolved hawaiite magmas in all three cycles points to crystal fractionation from more primitive magmas at depth. A possible major transition in mantle source regions through time may be indicated by a transition from normal to Rb-depleted, Sr-enriched hawaiites in the younger basaltic cycles. The recurrence of small volumes of hawaiite magma at Crater Flat supports assumptions required for probability modeling of future volcanic activity and provides a basis for estimating the effects of volcanic disruption of a repository site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site region. Preliminary data suggest that successive basalt cycles at Crater Flat may be of decreasing volume but recurring more frequently

VOLCANIC TSUNAMI GENERATING SOURCE MECHANISMS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Pararas-Carayannis

2004-01-01

ée on Martinique, of Soufriere on St. Vincent and of the Kick’em Jenny underwater volcano near Grenada and provides an overall risk assessment of tsunami generation from volcanic sources in the Caribbean region.

Toward Assessing the Causes of Volcanic Diversity in the Cascades Arc

Science.gov (United States)

Till, C. B.; Kent, A. J.; Abers, G. A.; Pitcher, B.; Janiszewski, H. A.; Schmandt, B.

2017-12-01

A fundamental unanswered question in subduction system science is the cause of the observed diversity in volcanic arc style at an arc-segment to whole-arc scale. Specifically, we have yet to distinguish the predominant mantle and crustal processes responsible for the diversity of arc volcanic phenomenon, including the presence of central volcanoes vs. dispersed volcanism; episodicity in volcanic fluxes in time and space; variations in magma chemistry; and differences in the extent of magmatic focusing. Here we present a thought experiment using currently available data to estimate the relative role of crustal magmatic processes in producing the observed variations in Cascades arc volcanism. A compilation of available major element compositions of Quaternary arc volcanism and estimates of eruptive volumes are used to examine variations in the composition of arc magmas along strike. We then calculate the Quaternary volcanic heat flux into the crust, assuming steady state, required to produce the observed distribution of compositions via crystallization of mantle-derived primitive magmas vs. crustal melting using experiment constraints on possible liquid lines of descent and crustal melting scenarios. For pure crystallization, heat input into the crust scales with silica content, with dacitic to rhyolite compositions producing significantly greater latent heat relative to basalts to andesites. In contrast, the heat required to melt lower crustal amphibolite decreases with increasing silica and is likely provided by the latent heat of crystallization. Thus we develop maximum and minimum estimates for heat added to the crust at a given SiO2 range. When volumes are considered, we find that the average Quaternary volcanic heat flux at latitudes south of South Sister to be more than twice that to the north. Distributed mafic volcanism produces only a quarter to half the heat flux calculated for the main edifices at a given latitude because of their lesser eruptive volumes

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

Volcanic hazards of North Island, New Zealand-overview

Science.gov (United States)

Dibble, R. R.; Nairn, I. A.; Neall, V. E.

1985-10-01

In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km 3 are credible.

Education as a key objective of the interdisciplinary volcanic risk mitigation strategy VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE for developing resilient and sustainable areas around Vesuvius

Science.gov (United States)

Dobran, F.; Imperatrice, A.

2017-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE requires the achievement of 5 key objectives for Summa-Vesuvius area: (1) Development of temporary settlements for the inhabitants close to their native homeland until the volcanic crisis subsides; (2) Division of the danger zone into an exclusion nucleus that prohibits all future human settlements and discourages the existing ones, a resilience belt that houses most of the current populations, and a sustainable area beyond the resilience belt that allows for sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of resilience belt citizens following the volcanic crises; (3) Development of built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone by utilizing plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, global volcanic simulator, and dynamic structural analysis; (4) Implementation of volcanic risk information and education campaigns for different risk areas surrounding the volcano; and (5) Production of a memorandum of understanding between the authorities and scientific communities, and production of periodic progress reports for keeping the populations informed on the developments leading to the realization of the above objectives.For the past 20 years we have devoted considerable efforts towards the achievement of educational objectives. We worked with local volunteers and social and cultural organizations and with our colleagues delivered over 200 public and school seminars in 15 communities around Vesuvius, organized 2 international scientific meetings for allowing the public and high school children to interact directly with the scientists working on this volcano, and established numerous contacts with school teachers for helping them engage their students on Vesuvius from the scientific, artistic, social, and cultural perspectives. Every year GVES has been the promoter of Vesuvius area manifestations where the school children have the opportunities to expose their works on this volcano and

UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry

2005-01-01

holes are planned with the goal of sampling each geographic subpopulation of magnetic anomalies in the region (Figure 1). This will result in a more complete characterization of the location, age, volume and composition of buried basaltic features for the purpose of updating the volcanic hazard assessment. Smith and Keenan (2005) suggested that volcanic hazard estimates might be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than estimated by the DOE expert elicitation in 1996, based on (1) a proposed relationship between recurrence rates in the YMR and the Reveille-Lunar Crater volcanic field to the north, and (2) the implication that a number of so-far-undiscovered buried volcanoes would have a significant impact on hazard estimates. This article presents the new aeromagnetic data and an interpretation of the data that suggests magnetic anomalies nearest the proposed repository site represent buried Miocene basalt that will likely have only a minor impact on the volcanic hazard

Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-05-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

Update of the volcanic risk map of Colima volcano, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nuñez Cornu, F. J.; Marquez-Azua, B.

2010-12-01

The Colima volcano, located in western Mexico (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W) began its current eruptive process in February 10, 1999. This event was the basis for the development of two volcanic hazard maps: one for ballistics (rock fall) lahars, and another one for ash fall. During the period of 2003 to 2008 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-Plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano thanks to the low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time The current volcanic activity has triggered ballistic projections, pyroclastic and ash flows, and lahars, all have exceeded the maps limits established in 1999. Vulnerable elements within these areas have gradually changed due to the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano. On the slopes of the northwest side, new blue agave Tequilana weber and avocado orchard crops have emerged along with important production of greenhouse tomato, alfalfa and fruit (citrus) crops that will eventually be processed and dried for exportation to the United States and Europe. Also, in addition to the above, large expanses of corn and sugar cane have been planted on the slopes of the volcano since the nineteenth century. The increased agricultural activity has had a direct impact in the reduction of the available forest land area. Coinciding with this increased activity, the 0.8% growth population during the period of 2000 - 2005, - due to the construction of the Guadalajara-Colima highway-, also increased this impact. The growth in vulnerability changed the level of risk with respect to the one identified in the year 1999 (Suarez, 2000), thus motivating us to perform an update to the risk map at 1:25,000 using vector models of the INEGI, SPOT images of different dates, and fieldwork done in order

Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

2013-12-01

Volatiles in magmas are the driving force of volcanic eruptions and quantification of volcanic gas flux and composition is important for the volcano monitoring. Recently we developed a portable gas sensor system (Multi-GAS) to quantify the volcanic gas composition by measuring volcanic plumes and obtained volcanic gas compositions of actively degassing volcanoes. As the Multi-GAS measures variation of volcanic gas component concentrations in the pumped air (volcanic plume), we need to bring the apparatus into the volcanic plume. Commonly the observer brings the apparatus to the summit crater by himself but such measurements are not possible under conditions of high risk of volcanic eruption or difficulty to approach the summit due to topography etc. In order to overcome these difficulties, volcanic plume measurements were performed by using manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. The volcanic plume measurements by manned aerial vehicles, however, are also not possible under high risk of eruption. The strict regulation against the modification of the aircraft, such as installing sampling pipes, also causes difficulty due to the high cost. Application of the UAVs for the volcanic plume measurements has a big advantage to avoid these problems. The Multi-GAS consists of IR-CO2 and H2O gas analyzer, SO2-H2O chemical sensors and H2 semiconductor sensor and the total weight ranges 3-6 kg including batteries. The necessary conditions of the UAV for the volcanic plumes measurements with the Multi-GAS are the payloads larger than 3 kg, maximum altitude larger than the plume height and installation of the sampling pipe without contamination of the exhaust gases, as the exhaust gases contain high concentrations of H2, SO2 and CO2. Up to now, three different types of UAVs were applied for the measurements; Kite-plane (Sky Remote) at Miyakejima operated by JMA, Unmanned airplane (Air Photo Service) at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano, and Unmanned helicopter (Yamaha) at Sakurajima

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

2017-12-01

Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2009-08-22

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

Screening criteria of volcanic hazards aspect in the NPP site evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Siwhan

2013-01-01

Studies have been conducted on the completeness of regulation in Indonesia particularly on volcanic hazards aspects in the evaluation of nuclear power plant site. Volcanic hazard aspect needed to identify potential external hazards that may endanger the safety of the operation of nuclear power plants. There are four stages for evaluating volcanic hazards, which are initial assessment, characterization sources of volcanic activity in the future, screening volcanic hazards and assessment of capable volcanic hazards. This paper discuss the third stage of the general evaluation which is the screening procedure of volcanic hazards. BAPETEN Chairman Regulation No. 2 Year of 2008 has only one screening criteria for missile volcanic phenomena, so it required screening criteria for other hazard phenomena that are pyroclastic flow density; lava flows; avalanche debris materials; lava; opening hole new eruptions, volcano missile; tsunamis; ground deformation; and hydrothermal system and ground water anomaly. (author)

Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

2014-06-01

The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

The Perception of Volcanic Risk in Kona Communities from Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Hawai`i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

2002-12-01

Hawai`i's coastal communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards as a consequence of increasing population and infrastructure. Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e., western side of the island) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes. The former has erupted thirty-nine times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during six of these, but last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualalai last erupted in c. 1800. The most recent eruptions at each volcano were damaging to society, but future eruptions would exact much greater impacts. The second largest city on the island, several resort complexes, and an international airport are located within 15 km of vents. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources, a potential for relatively fast moving lavas, and the relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high school students and their parents, and the greater adult public (n=462). Using this data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception and perceptions as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average less than two-thirds of residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualalai could erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in under three hours. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community. Not unexpectedly, individual preparedness measures were found to be limited to simple tasks, while measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes were seldom adopted. Respondents exhibit an "unrealistic optimism bias" and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions rests primarily with officials. Hazard

Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

2009-01-01

In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

Volcanic hazards to airports

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

2009-01-01

, Tungurahua in Ecuador, Mt. Etna in Italy, Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea, Mt. Spurr and Mt. St. Helens in the USA, Ruapehu in New Zealand, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, and Anatahan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (part of the USA). Ten countries - USA, Indonesia, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea, Italy, New Zealand, Philippines, Mexico, Japan, and United Kingdom - have the highest volcanic hazard and/or vulnerability measures for airports. The adverse impacts of volcanic eruptions on airports can be mitigated by preparedness and forewarning. Methods that have been used to forewarn airports of volcanic activity include real-time detection of explosive volcanic activity, forecasts of ash dispersion and deposition, and detection of approaching ash clouds using ground-based Doppler radar. Given the demonstrated vulnerability of airports to disruption from volcanic activity, at-risk airports should develop operational plans for ashfall events, and volcano-monitoring agencies should provide timely forewarning of imminent volcanic-ash hazards directly to airport operators. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

1983-03-01

Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

Volcanic hazards of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and adjacent areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hackett, W.R.; Smith, R.P.

1994-12-01

Potential volcanic hazards are assessed, and hazard zone maps are developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and adjacent areas. The basis of the hazards assessment and mapping is the past volcanic history of the INEL region, and the apparent similarity of INEL volcanism with equivalent, well-studied phenomena in other regions of active volcanism, particularly Hawaii and Iceland. The most significant hazards to INEL facilities are associated with basaltic volcanism, chiefly lava flows, which move slowly and mainly threaten property by inundation or burning. Related hazards are volcanic gases and tephra, and ground disturbance associated with the ascent of magma under the volcanic zones. Several volcanic zones are identified in the INEL area. These zones contain most of the volcanic vents and fissures of the region and are inferred to be the most probable sites of future INEL volcanism. Volcanic-recurrence estimates are given for each of the volcanic zones based on geochronology of the lavas, together with the results of field and petrographic investigations concerning the cogenetic relationships of INEL volcanic deposits and associated magma intrusion. Annual probabilities of basaltic volcanism within the INEL volcanic zones range from 6.2 x 10 -5 per year (average 16,000-year interval between eruptions) for the axial volcanic zone near the southern INEL boundary and the Arco volcanic-rift zone near the western INEL boundary, to 1 x 10 -5 per year (average 100,000-year interval between eruptions) for the Howe-East Butte volcanic rift zone, a geologically old and poorly defined feature of the central portion of INEL. Three volcanic hazard zone maps are developed for the INEL area: lava flow hazard zones, a tephra (volcanic ash) and gas hazard zone, and a ground-deformation hazard zone. The maps are useful in land-use planning, site selection, and safety analysis

Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

2015-12-01

Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (concern on epidemiological monitoring. In 2011 the volcanic complex Puyehue - Cordon Caulle eruption produced ashfall through plumes that reached densely populated cities like San Carlos de Bariloche and Buenos Aires. Farther away in South Africa and New Zealand ash plumes forced airlines to cancel local and international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population

Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

2018-05-09

Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

The VeTOOLS Project: an example of how to strengthen collaboration between scientists and Civil Protections in disaster risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Marti, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Becerril, Laura

2016-04-01

VeTOOLS is a project funded by the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), and aims at creating an integrated software platform specially designed to assess and manage volcanic risk. The project facilitates interaction and cooperation between scientists and Civil Protection Agencies in order to share, unify, and exchange procedures, methodologies and technologies to effectively reduce the impacts of volcanic disasters. The project aims at 1) improving and developing volcanic risk assessment and management capacities in active volcanic regions; 2) developing universal methodologies, scenario definitions, response strategies and alert protocols to cope with the full range of volcanic threats; 4) improving quantitative methods and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment; and 5) defining thresholds and protocols for civil protection. With these objectives, the VeTOOLS project points to two of the Sendai Framework resolutions for implementing it: i) Provide guidance on methodologies and standards for risk assessments, disaster risk modelling and the use of data; ii) Promote and support the availability and application of science and technology to decision-making, and offers a good example on how a close collaboration between science and civil protection is an effective way to contribute to DRR. European Commission ECHO Grant SI2.695524

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-01-01

to bio-reactivity and toxicity of dusts within the lung. The surface reactivity of volcanic ash was studied for the first time, to determine if it is capable of producing surface and/or free radicals. Concentrations of hydroxyl radicals are found to be high in respirable volcanic ash in comparison to a known toxic mineral, being 2-3 times higher than a quartz standard. The concentration of free radicals are found to be similar in samples with high and very low cristobalite content. Cristobalite, alone, shows no production of hydroxyl or surface radicals. It is possible, however, that crystalline silica is involved in different mechanisms of toxicity, involving other radicals and pathways. The main cause of high radical productivity is shown to be reduced iron ions (Fe 2+ ) on the surface of ferromagnesian minerals which are known to be particularly reactive in the lung. A new hazard has, therefore, been identified: iron is a major factor that must be considered when assessing the respiratory health hazard of volcanic dusts. (author)

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-07-01

closely linked to bio-reactivity and toxicity of dusts within the lung. The surface reactivity of volcanic ash was studied for the first time, to determine if it is capable of producing surface and/or free radicals. Concentrations of hydroxyl radicals are found to be high in respirable volcanic ash in comparison to a known toxic mineral, being 2-3 times higher than a quartz standard. The concentration of free radicals are found to be similar in samples with high and very low cristobalite content. Cristobalite, alone, shows no production of hydroxyl or surface radicals. It is possible, however, that crystalline silica is involved in different mechanisms of toxicity, involving other radicals and pathways. The main cause of high radical productivity is shown to be reduced iron ions (Fe{sup 2+}) on the surface of ferromagnesian minerals which are known to be particularly reactive in the lung. A new hazard has, therefore, been identified: iron is a major factor that must be considered when assessing the respiratory health hazard of volcanic dusts. (author)

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R. I.

2009-12-01

Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant

Assessing individual and organizational response to volcanic crisis and unrest at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Reeves, Ashleigh; Gregg, Chris; Lindell, Michael; Prater, Carla; Joyner, Timothy; Eggert, Sarah

2017-04-01

both written messages and graphic illustrations, placed pressure on HVO to provide information at a faster rate than in previous eruptions. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty about volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate protective action recommendations. A series of interviews and mental model exercises were conducted with local, state, and federal stakeholders to understand their needs in volcano crises. Current knowledge of local risk communication and mitigation efforts as well as stakeholders' experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis were identified. Stakeholders included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis— traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers and firefighters. We are also assessing factors that influence household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations, such as evacuation, and their attitudes toward hazard mitigation efforts, such as lava diversion strategies. Collectively, these studies will provide a detailed evaluation of important risk communication and risk management issues at both household and organizational levels and insight about uncertainties that influence the outcome of volcanic crises.

Quantitative volcanic susceptibility analysis of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands based on kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process

Science.gov (United States)

Galindo, I.; Romero, M. C.; Sánchez, N.; Morales, J. M.

2016-06-01

Risk management stakeholders in high-populated volcanic islands should be provided with the latest high-quality volcanic information. We present here the first volcanic susceptibility map of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands and their submarine flanks based on updated chronostratigraphical and volcano structural data, as well as on the geomorphological analysis of the bathymetric data of the submarine flanks. The role of the structural elements in the volcanic susceptibility analysis has been reviewed: vents have been considered since they indicate where previous eruptions took place; eruptive fissures provide information about the stress field as they are the superficial expression of the dyke conduit; eroded dykes have been discarded since they are single non-feeder dykes intruded in deep parts of Miocene-Pliocene volcanic edifices; main faults have been taken into account only in those cases where they could modified the superficial movement of magma. The application of kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process for the volcanic susceptibility assessment has been applied successfully to Lanzarote and could be applied to other fissure volcanic fields worldwide since the results provide information about the probable area where an eruption could take place but also about the main direction of the probable volcanic fissures.

Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

Science.gov (United States)

Papale, Paolo

2018-05-01

Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

NOVAC - Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change: Data archiving and management

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, T.; Kern, C.; Vogel, L.; Platt, U.; Johansson, M.; Galle, B.

2009-12-01

The potential for volcanic risk assessment using real-time gas emissions data and the recognized power of sharing data from multiple eruptive centers were the motivation for a European Union FP6 Research Program project entitled NOVAC: Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change. Starting in 2005, a worldwide network of permanent scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instruments was installed at 26 volcanoes around the world. These ground-based remote sensing instruments record the characteristic absorption of volcanic gas emissions (e.g. SO2, BrO) in the ultra-violet wavelength region. A real-time DOAS retrieval was implemented to evaluate the measured spectra, thus providing the respective observatories with gas emission data which can be used for volcanic risk assessment and hazard prediction. Observatory personnel at each partner institution were trained on technical and scientific aspects of the DOAS technique, and a central database was created to allow the exchange of data and ideas between all partners. A bilateral benefit for volcano observatories as well as scientific institutions (e.g. universities and research centers) resulted. Volcano observatories were provided with leading edge technology for measuring volcanic SO2 emission fluxes, and now use this technology for monitoring and risk assessment, while the involved universities and research centers are working on global studies and characterizing the atmospheric impact of the observed gas emissions. The NOVAC database takes into account that project members use the database in a variety of different ways. Therefore, the data is structured in layers, the top of which contains basic information about each instrument. The second layer contains evaluated emission data such as SO2 column densities, SO2 emission fluxes, and BrO/SO2 ratios. The lowest layer contains all spectra measured by the individual instruments. Online since the middle of 2006, the NOVAC database

Volcanism on Io

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ashley Gerard

2014-03-01

Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

Chemistry of ash-leachates to monitor volcanic activity: An application to Popocatepetl volcano, central Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Armienta, M.A., E-mail: victoria@geofisica.unam.mx [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Circuito Exterior, C.U., Mexico 04510 D.F. (Mexico); De la Cruz-Reyna, S. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Circuito Exterior, C.U., Mexico 04510 D.F. (Mexico); Soler, A. [Grup de Mineralogia Aplicada i Medi Ambient, Dep. Cristal.lografia, Mineralogia i Diposits Minerals, Fac. Geologia, Universidad de Barcelona (Spain); Cruz, O.; Ceniceros, N.; Aguayo, A. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica, Circuito Exterior, C.U., Mexico 04510 D.F. (Mexico)

2010-08-15

Monitoring volcanic activity and assessing volcanic risk in an on-going eruption is a problem that requires the maximum possible independent data to reduce uncertainty. A quick, relatively simple and inexpensive method to follow the development of an eruption and to complement other monitoring parameters is the chemical analysis of ash leachates, particularly in the case of eruptions related to dome emplacement. Here, the systematic analysis of SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, Cl{sup -} and F{sup -} concentrations in ash leachates is proposed as a valuable tool for volcanic activity monitoring. However, some results must be carefully assessed, as is the case for S/Cl ratios, since eruption of hydrothermally altered material may be confused with degassing of incoming magma. Sulfur isotopes help to identify SO{sub 4} produced by hydrothermal processes from magmatic SO{sub 2}. Lower S isotopic values correlated with higher F{sup -} percentages represent a better indicator of fresh magmatic influence that may lead to stronger eruptions and emplacement of new lava domes. Additionally, multivariate statistical analysis helps to identify different eruption characteristics, provided that the analyses are made over a long enough time to sample different stages of an eruption.

Chemistry of ash-leachates to monitor volcanic activity: An application to Popocatepetl volcano, central Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armienta, M.A.; De la Cruz-Reyna, S.; Soler, A.; Cruz, O.; Ceniceros, N.; Aguayo, A.

2010-01-01

Monitoring volcanic activity and assessing volcanic risk in an on-going eruption is a problem that requires the maximum possible independent data to reduce uncertainty. A quick, relatively simple and inexpensive method to follow the development of an eruption and to complement other monitoring parameters is the chemical analysis of ash leachates, particularly in the case of eruptions related to dome emplacement. Here, the systematic analysis of SO 4 2- , Cl - and F - concentrations in ash leachates is proposed as a valuable tool for volcanic activity monitoring. However, some results must be carefully assessed, as is the case for S/Cl ratios, since eruption of hydrothermally altered material may be confused with degassing of incoming magma. Sulfur isotopes help to identify SO 4 produced by hydrothermal processes from magmatic SO 2 . Lower S isotopic values correlated with higher F - percentages represent a better indicator of fresh magmatic influence that may lead to stronger eruptions and emplacement of new lava domes. Additionally, multivariate statistical analysis helps to identify different eruption characteristics, provided that the analyses are made over a long enough time to sample different stages of an eruption.

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit

Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2015-01-01

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major

Assessment of volcanic and geothermal activity in the Pasco Basin and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1980-01-01

Event network analyses indicate the most likely volcanic hazard to the Pasco Basin is influx of ash fall tephra from source areas in the Cascade Range. Less likely, but still notable, is the possibility of water flooding the Pasco Basin as a result of volcanic damming of one or more major drainages in the region. The least probable hazards include (1) influx of ash flows from eruptions in the Cascade Range or the Basin and Range Province, (2) renewed flood basalt volcanism, and (3) breaching of a repository by a dike or fissure. It is highly unlikely that volcanism will pose a direct threat to the integrity of any nuclear waste repositories in the Pasco Basin. Low-temperature geothermal water (20 degrees--90 degrees C) is present at random locations within the Pasco Basin and vicinity. This water may represent a potential resource only for direct heating purposes. Available data indicate no geothermal reservoirs with temperatures high enough and depths shallow enough for economical production of electricity are present within the Pasco Basin. 70 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

The Lathrop Wells volcanic center

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Morley, R.

1992-01-01

The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is located 20 km south of the potential Yucca Mountain site, at the south end of the Yucca Mountain range. This paper discusses a detailed Study Plan which was prepared describing planned geochronology and field studies to assess the chronology of the Lathrop Wells volcanic center and other Quaternary volcanic centers in the region. A paper was published discussing the geomorphic and soil evidence for a late Pleistocene or Holoceno age for the main cone of the center. The purpose of this paper was to expose the ideas concerning the age of the Lathrop Wells center to scientific scrutiny. Additionally, field evidence was described suggesting the Lathrop Wells center may have formed from multiple eruptive events with significant intervals of no activity between events. This interpretation breaks with established convention in the volcanological literature that small volume basalt centers are monogenetic

QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

2013-11-01

One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

The future of volcanic ash-aircraft interactions from technical and policy perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Casadevall, T. J.; Guffanti, M.

2010-12-01

growth in the risks facing aviation operation owing to volcanic ash hazard (http://www2.icao.int/en/anb/met-aim/met/ivatf/Documents/Final.Alltext.pdf) Modifications of international procedures for air traffic management, a new assessment of equipment vulnerability, and efforts to detect and to more precisely forecast the distribution and concentration of volcanic ash are underway. These efforts will result in modification and updating of current practices for advising and warning pilots and airspace managers about volcanic ash, and also in better understandings of the threat volcanic ash presents to aviation operations. While technical and policy changes will help improve flight safety, there continues to be a role for earth scientists to work with the aviation community to improve monitoring of volcanoes, especially in remote regions, and in understanding of explosive volcanic processes. A paramount need continues for improved communications amongst all of the scientific and technical parties to address and successfully mitigate the risks of volcanic ash to aviation operations.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Lidar detection of carbon dioxide in volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Santoro, Simone; Parracino, Stefano; Maio, Giovanni; Del Franco, Mario; Aiuppa, Alessandro

2015-06-01

Volcanic gases give information on magmatic processes. In particular, anomalous releases of carbon dioxide precede volcanic eruptions. Up to now, this gas has been measured in volcanic plumes with conventional measurements that imply the severe risks of local sampling and can last many hours. For these reasons and for the great advantages of laser sensing, the thorough development of volcanic lidar has been undertaken at the Diagnostics and Metrology Laboratory (UTAPRAD-DIM) of the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA). In fact, lidar profiling allows one to scan remotely volcanic plumes in a fast and continuous way, and with high spatial and temporal resolution. Two differential absorption lidar instruments will be presented in this paper: BILLI (BrIdge voLcanic LIdar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser, double grating dye laser, difference frequency mixing (DFM) and optical parametric amplifier (OPA), and VULLI (VULcamed Lidar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser and optical parametric oscillator (OPO). The first one is funded by the ERC (European Research Council) project BRIDGE and the second one by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) project VULCAMED. While VULLI has not yet been tested in a volcanic site, BILLI scanned the gas emitted by Pozzuoli Solfatara (Campi Flegrei volcanic area, Naples, Italy) during a field campaign carried out from 13 to 17 October 2014. Carbon dioxide concentration maps were retrieved remotely in few minutes in the crater area. Lidar measurements were in good agreement with well-established techniques, based on different operating principles. To our knowledge, it is the first time that carbon dioxide in a volcanic plume is retrieved by lidar, representing the first direct measurement of this kind ever performed on an active volcano and showing the high potential of laser remote sensing in geophysical research.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Modelling ground deformation patterns associated with volcanic processes at the Okataina Volcanic Centre

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, L.; Cas, R.; Fournier, N.; Ailleres, L.

2017-09-01

The Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is one of two large active rhyolite centres in the modern Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the North Island of New Zealand. It is located in a complex section of the Taupo rift, a tectonically active section of the TVZ. The most recent volcanic unrest at the OVC includes the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions. Current monitoring activity at the OVC includes the use of continuous GPS receivers (cGPS), lake levelling and seismographs. The ground deformation patterns preceding volcanic activity the OVC are poorly constrained and restricted to predictions from basic modelling and comparison to other volcanoes worldwide. A better understanding of the deformation patterns preceding renewed volcanic activity is essential to determine if observed deformation is related to volcanic, tectonic or hydrothermal processes. Such an understanding also means that the ability of the present day cGPS network to detect these deformation patterns can also be assessed. The research presented here uses the finite element (FE) modelling technique to investigate ground deformation patterns associated with magma accumulation and diking processes at the OVC in greater detail. A number of FE models are produced and tested using Pylith software and incorporate characteristics of the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions, summarised from the existing body of research literature. The influence of a simple ring fault structure at the OVC on the modelled deformation is evaluated. The ability of the present-day continuous GPS (cGPS) GeoNet monitoring network to detect or observe the modelled deformation is also considered. The results show the modelled horizontal and vertical displacement fields have a number of key features, which include prominent lobe based regions extending northwest and southeast of the OVC. The results also show that the ring fault structure increases the magnitude of the displacements inside the caldera, in particular in the

State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of tectonism and volcanism on a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

Most estimates of the time required for safe isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 years. For such long time spans, it is necessary to assess the potential effects of geologic processes such as volcanism and tectonic activity on the integrity of geologic repositories. Predictions of geologic phenomena can be based on probabilistic models, which assume a random distribution of events. The necessary historic and geologic records are rarely available to provide an adequate data base for such predictions. The observed distribution of volcanic and tectonic activity is not random, and appears to be controlled by extremely complex deterministic processes. The advent of global plate tectonic theory in the past two decades has been a giant step toward understanding these processes. At each potential repository site, volcanic and tectonic processes should be evaluated to provide the most thorough possible understanding of those deterministic processes. Based on this knowledge, judgements will have to be made as to whether or not the volcanic and tectonic processes pose unacceptable risk to the integrity of the repository. This report describes the potential hazards associated with volcanism and tectonism, and the means for evaluating these processes

Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ya. D. Muraviev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Volcanic Characteristics of Kueishantao in Northeast Taiwan and Their Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Lung Chiu

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Kueishantao (KST is a small offshore volcanic island located at the southernmost part of the Okinawa Trough. In this study, we conducted a detailed mapping incorporating the new high resolution LiDAR DTM laser scanning device to accurately construct a volcanic sequence. A new 1/5000 geological map was established. One primary volcanic cone, composed of layers of both lava flows and pyroclastic rocks constituted the major edifice of KST. The other minor volcanic cone, which consists of volcanic lapillis and blocks, is seated to the east of the main cone. The escarped and nearly straight coast in the southern part of the KST indicates that the volcano suffered a large post-volcanic edifice collapse erasing nearly one half of the volume of both volcanic cones. The increase in the abundance of the xenoliths of sedimentary rocks from the lower to the upper part of the volcanic sequence indicates that the formation of volcanic rocks of the KST involved an intensification of crustal contamination. The possibility of volcanic eruption can not be excluded in the future based on the present thermolu¬minescene age data of 7 ka. The associated eruptive ash fall and tsunami induced by the further collapse of the KST volcanic edifice might have great influence to the adjacent inland. Thus, long-term monitoring of volcanic activities around KST should be required for future hazard assessments.

Volcanic stratigraphy: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Martí, Joan; Groppelli, Gianluca; Brum da Silveira, Antonio

2018-05-01

Volcanic stratigraphy is a fundamental component of geological mapping in volcanic areas as it yields the basic criteria and essential data for identifying the spatial and temporal relationships between volcanic products and intra/inter-eruptive processes (earth-surface, tectonic and climatic), which in turn provides greater understanding of the geological evolution of a region. Establishing precise stratigraphic relationships in volcanic successions is not only essential for understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes and for predicting how they might behave in the future, but is also critical for establishing guidelines for exploring economic and energy resources associated with volcanic systems or for reconstructing the evolution of sedimentary basins in which volcanism has played a significant role. Like classical stratigraphy, volcanic stratigraphy should also be defined using a systematic methodology that can provide an organised and comprehensive description of the temporal and spatial evolution of volcanic terrain. This review explores different methods employed in studies of volcanic stratigraphy, examines four case studies that use differing stratigraphic approaches, and recommends methods for using systematic volcanic stratigraphy based on the application of the concepts of traditional stratigraphy but adapted to the needs of volcanological environment.

Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2010-01-01

The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

The Origin of Widespread Long-lived Volcanism Across the Galapagos Volcanic Province

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, J. M.; Stoffers, P.; Wijbrans, J. R.; Worthington, T. J.

2005-12-01

40Ar/39Ar ages for rocks dredged (SO144 PAGANINI expedition) and drilled (DSDP) from the Galapagos Volcanic Province (Cocos, Carnegie, Coiba and Malpelo aseismic ridges and associated seamounts) show evidence of 1) increasing age with distance from the Galapagos Archipelago, 2) long-lived episodic volcanism at many locations, and 3) broad overlapping regions of coeval volcanism. The widespread nature of synchronous volcanism across the Galapagos Volcanic Province (GVP) suggests a correspondingly large Galapagos hotspot melting anomaly (O'Connor et al., 2004). Development of the GVP via Cocos and Nazca plate migration and divergence over this broad melting anomaly would explain continued multiple phases of volcanism over millions of years following the initial onset of hotspot volcanism. The question arising from these observations is whether long-lived GVP episodic volcanism is equivalent to `rejuvenescent' or a `post-erosional' phase of volcanism that occurs hundreds of thousands or million years after the main shield-building phase documented on many mid-plate seamount chains, most notably along the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain? Thus, investigating the process responsible for long-lived episodic GVP volcanism provides the opportunity to evaluate this little understood process of rejuvenation in a physical setting very different to the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain (i.e. on/near spreading axis versus mid-plate). We consider here timing and geochemical information to test the various geodynamic models proposed to explain the origin of GVP hotspot volcanism, especially the possibility of rejuvenated phases that erupt long after initial shield-building.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

Multidisciplinary approach to increasing Resilience in communities versus the hydrogeological and volcanic risk

Science.gov (United States)

Avvisati, Gala; Colucci, Orazio; Marotta, Enrica; Masucci, Armando; Nave, Rosella; Peluso, Rosario; Tomasone, Mario

2017-04-01

A given area may be exposed to different natural hazards, such as landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic events etc. which could affect usual human activities at many levels. The goal of our work is to increase the resilience level in communities exposed to natural hazards through an innovative and multidisciplinary research approach integrating engineering, geological, medical and sociological skills. We are going to use an analytical approach to consider simultaneously the Natural Environment and their dwellers, taking into account the sanitary protocols. We'll start by studying the hazards to which the Natural Environment could be exposed evaluating the deriving risks level trough technical studies. For each scenario it's vital to assess the defining aspects such as magnitude and frequency, through a statistical analysis of the specific data-bases in possession of relevant Authorities in charge. Regarding the Inhabitants, it's also vital to analyse the dwellers Risk Perception and their Historical Resilience through a sociological and psychological approach, in order to define the specific information and education program on natural risks. This study is of particular relevance, as even the most advanced risk management plan could fail if locals are not aware and informed about it. A correct disaster management policy must consider the medics role as paramount. Emergency first aid and emergency medicine are to be considered specific field of partitioning, and to be seen as the most appropriate way to deal with a dire situation, especially when the resources vs. magnitude of event ratio is low. The study of best practices helping to improve the resilience and reaction of areas exposed to different natural hazards with different socio-cultural layers is hence crucial. A possible model is to directly involve the residents into controlling the environment and improving/detailing the risks' and emergency areas mapping. These make the population more aware of both

Volcanic rises on Venus: Geology, formation, and sequence of evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Senske, D. A.; Stofan, E. R.; Bindschadler, D. L.; Smrekar, S. E.

1993-01-01

Large centers of volcanism on Venus are concentrated primarily in the equatorial region of the planet and are associated with regional topographic rises. Analysis of both radar images and geophysical data suggest that these uplands are sites of mantle upwelling. Magellan radar imaging provides a globally contiguous data set from which the geology of these regions is evaluated and compared. In addition, high resolution gravity data currently being collected provide a basis to assess the relationship between these uplands and processes in the planet's interior. Studies of the geology of the three largest volcanic highlands (Beta Regio, Atla Regio, Western Eistla Regio) show them to be distinct, having a range of volcanic and tectonic characteristics. In addition to these large areas, a number of smaller uplands are identified and are being analyzed (Bell Regio, Imdr Regio, Dione Regio (Ushas, Innini, and Hathor Montes), and Themis Regio). To understand better the mechanisms by which these volcanic rises form and evolve, we assess their geologic and geophysical characteristics.

Volcanic features of Io

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.

1979-01-01

The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Geomorphological Characterization of Atenquique Basin in the Eastern Sector of the Volcan-Nevado-Colima, Jalisco, Mexico, As an Input to the Risk Assessment of Debris Flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Pena, S.; Suarez-Plascencia, C.

2014-12-01

The Atenquique river basin drains the eastern sector of the Volcanic Complex (VC) Volcan-Nevado de Colima, located on the border of the states of Jalisco and Colima. To use the digital geomorphological analysis 1:50000 scale mapping provided by INEGI and Landsat images, manipulating it in ArcGIS 10.2 developing the DEM that was the basis for morphometric characterization. The results show that the basin is divided into five sub-basins, with the main Atenquique (SAT) and Arroyo Seco (SAS), calculating the compactness coefficient (Kc) and the coefficient of sinuosity indicate that SAT is the most prone to floods due to straight and slightly sinuous channels. However, the density of dissection shows a more developed drainage network on the SAT, with slopes up to 84° and 600 m deep. The drainage basin has its source at an altitude of 4260 m and its mouth is in the Tuxpan River at 1040 m, which has a relative height of 2800 m; has a funnel-shaped elongated west-east, its outstanding average in the sector are Mountain 44° and 10° the piedmont. The SAT has a total area of 81.8 km2, with a dendritic river network, where the first order streams reach an 82.99%, and second order streams are the 13.4% of the total, these values show that most of the slopes of the basin have incipient development valleys and steep slopes. The basin has had 3 debris flows in recent 58 years; these are formed by large volumes of rock and mud that covered the town of Atenquique and paper mill located at the mouth of the Tuxpan River, caused deaths and significant economic damage. Its genesis is associated with the end of the summer rainy season, so he also worked in the hydrological analysis in order to determine the volume of runoff in the basin. The results of this work are used as input for the determining the risk levels in the study area, and may also be used by the municipality of Tuxpan, in order to define policies to manage risk and reduce future risks to the industrial town of

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Assessment of volcanic and tectonic hazards to high level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallmann, P.C.; Miller, I.; Kossik, R.

1993-01-01

Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a computer program (RIP) for performing probabilistic total system performance assessment and site characterization strategy evaluation which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and to guide characterization activities. The performance assessment model incorporated in RIP has three basic component models: (1) waste package behavior, (2) radionuclide transport pathways, and (3) disruptive events. Classes of disruptive events are specified in RIP by (1) a disruption rate (events/yr.), (2) open-quotes event descriptorsclose quotes which describe event characteristics and magnitude, and (3) the consequences associated with an event. One of the strengths of RIP is its flexibility, which allows it to evaluate different sites and conceptual models. Examples of seismic and volcanic disruptive event models constructed by GAI for Yucca Mountain are presented. Analysis of the results of these models indicates that for the simulated models, neither of these event classes significantly impacts the performance of the proposed repository over a 10,000 year time span

Assessment of Muria geochemistry evolution and related to volcanic hazard to NPP site at Muria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basuki Wibowo; June Mellawati; Heni Susiati

2011-01-01

Study of geochemistry evolution aspect in Mt. Muria cycle to predict the level of volcanic hazards posed in the future on Muria nuclear power plant site was conducted. The purpose of the study was to determine the Muria geochemistry condition, tectonic patterns and to predict the level of volcanic hazard in the future on Muria nuclear power plant sites. The methodology used is the collection of secondary data on the complex geochemical conditions Muria volcanic in their life cycle, perform correlation geochemical cycle in its path towards conditions that most likely experienced tectonic, volcanic, and interpretation of the hazard posed. The study shows that geochemical conditions in Muria Volcano complex composed of potassium, low-yield product predicted high-temperature molten magma (decompression) and high potassium levels (compression). Pattern of tectonic decompression geochemical conditions associated with low potassium in Muria old, while the pattern of tectonic compression geochemical conditions associated with high potassium in young Muria. The level of volcanic hazard in the future indicated by the nature of non capable of Mt. Muria. (author)

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. K. Bird

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Large-scale volcanism associated with coronae on Venus

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, K. Magee; Head, James W.

1993-01-01

The formation and evolution of coronae on Venus are thought to be the result of mantle upwellings against the crust and lithosphere and subsequent gravitational relaxation. A variety of other features on Venus have been linked to processes associated with mantle upwelling, including shield volcanoes on large regional rises such as Beta, Atla and Western Eistla Regiones and extensive flow fields such as Mylitta and Kaiwan Fluctus near the Lada Terra/Lavinia Planitia boundary. Of these features, coronae appear to possess the smallest amounts of associated volcanism, although volcanism associated with coronae has only been qualitatively examined. An initial survey of coronae based on recent Magellan data indicated that only 9 percent of all coronae are associated with substantial amounts of volcanism, including interior calderas or edifices greater than 50 km in diameter and extensive, exterior radial flow fields. Sixty-eight percent of all coronae were found to have lesser amounts of volcanism, including interior flooding and associated volcanic domes and small shields; the remaining coronae were considered deficient in associated volcanism. It is possible that coronae are related to mantle plumes or diapirs that are lower in volume or in partial melt than those associated with the large shields or flow fields. Regional tectonics or variations in local crustal and thermal structure may also be significant in determining the amount of volcanism produced from an upwelling. It is also possible that flow fields associated with some coronae are sheet-like in nature and may not be readily identified. If coronae are associated with volcanic flow fields, then they may be a significant contributor to plains formation on Venus, as they number over 300 and are widely distributed across the planet. As a continuation of our analysis of large-scale volcanism on Venus, we have reexamined the known population of coronae and assessed quantitatively the scale of volcanism associated

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

2015-04-01

Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

Sources of Quaternary volcanism in the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, Madagascar

Science.gov (United States)

Rasoazanamparany, C.; Widom, E.; Kuentz, D. C.; Raharimahefa, T.; Rakotondrazafy, F. M. A.; Rakotondravelo, K. M.

2017-12-01

We present new major and trace element and Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope data for Quaternary basaltic lavas and tephra from the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, representing the most recent volcanism in Madagascar. Mafic magmas from Itasy and Ankaratra exhibit significant inter- and intra-volcanic field geochemical heterogeneity. The Itasy eruptive products range in composition from foidite to phonotephrite whereas Ankaratra lavas range from basanite to trachybasalts. Trace element signatures of samples from both volcanic fields are very similar to those of ocean island basalts (OIB), with significant enrichment in Nb and Ta, depletion in Rb, Cs, and K, and relatively high Nb/U and Ce/Pb. However, the Itasy volcanic rocks show enrichment relative to those of Ankaratra in most incompatible elements, indicative of a more enriched source and/or lower degrees of partial melting. Significant inter- and intra-volcanic field heterogeneity is also observed in Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope signatures. The Itasy volcanic rocks generally have less radiogenic Sr and Nd isotopic ratios but more radiogenic Pb isotopic signatures than the Ankaratra volcanic field. Together, the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic rocks form a well-defined negative correlation in Sr vs. Pb isotopes that could be attributed to lithospheric contamination or variable degrees of mixing between distinct mantle sources. However, the lack of correlation between isotopes and indices of crustal contamination (e.g. MgO and Nb/U) are inconsistent with shallow lithospheric contamination, and instead suggest mixing between compositionally distinct mantle sources. Furthermore, although Sr-Pb isotope systematics are apparently consistent with mixing between two different sources, distinct trends in Sr vs. Nd isotopes displayed by samples from Itasy and Ankaratra, respectively, argue for more complex source mixing involving three or more sources. The current data demonstrate that although the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

Science.gov (United States)

,; ,

2007-01-01

The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response:Application to Manizales, Colombia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gabriel A.Bernal; Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Daniela Zuloaga; Julián Tristancho; Diana González; Omar-Dar(i)o Cardona

2017-01-01

The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment,developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales,Colombia,are presented in this article.This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models.A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic,landslide,and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards.Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered.The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants,which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur.The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Contrasting styles of post-caldera volcanism along the Main Ethiopian Rift: Implications for contemporary volcanic hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Fontijn, Karen; McNamara, Keri; Zafu Tadesse, Amdemichael; Pyle, David M.; Dessalegn, Firawalin; Hutchison, William; Mather, Tamsin A.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

2018-05-01

The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER, 7-9°N) is the type example of a magma-assisted continental rift. The rift axis is populated with regularly spaced silicic caldera complexes and central stratovolcanoes, interspersed with large fields of small mafic scoria cones. The recent (latest Pleistocene to Holocene) history of volcanism in the MER is poorly known, and no eruptions have occurred in the living memory of the local population. Assessment of contemporary volcanic hazards and associated risk is primarily based on the study of the most recent eruptive products, typically those emplaced within the last 10-20 ky. We integrate new and published field observations and geochemical data on tephra deposits from the main Late Quaternary volcanic centres in the central MER to assess contemporary volcanic hazards. Most central volcanoes in the MER host large mid-Pleistocene calderas, with typical diameters of 5-15 km, and associated ignimbrites of trachyte and peralkaline rhyolite composition. In contrast, post-caldera activity at most centres comprises eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas as obsidian flows, domes and pumice cones. The frequency and magnitude of events varies between individual volcanoes. Some volcanoes have predominantly erupted obsidian lava flows in their most recent post-caldera stage (Fentale), whereas other have had up to 3 moderate-scale (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions per millennium (Aluto). At some volcanoes we find evidence for multiple large explosive eruptions (Corbetti, Bora-Baricha, Boset-Bericha) which have deposited several centimetres to metres of pumice and ash in currently densely populated regions. This new overview has important implications when assessing the present-day volcanic hazard in this rapidly developing region. Supplementary Table 2 Main Ethiopian Rift outcrop localities with brief description of geology. All coordinates in Latitude - Longitude, WGS84 datum. Sample names (as listed in Supplementary Table 3a) follow outcrop name

Estimation of volcanic ash emissions using trajectory-based 4D-Var data assimilation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, S.; Lin, X.; Heemink, A.W.; Fu, G.; Segers, A.J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore,

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

2016-11-10

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Siebert, L.; Hubbard, B.; Sheridan, M.F.; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2006-01-01

Belt. However, critical pore water pressure from extraordinary amounts of rainfall associated with hurricanes or other meteorological perturbation cannot be ruled out, particularly for smaller volume collapses. There are examples in the area of small seismogenic debris flows that have occurred in historical times, showing that these processes are not uncommon. Assessing the stability conditions of major volcanic edifices that have experienced catastrophic sector collapses is crucial for forecasting future events. This is particularly true for the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt, where in many cases no magmatic activity was associated with the collapse. Therefore, edifice failure could occur again without any precursory warning. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

2016-04-01

Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

The Cerg-C: A Specialisation Certificate in Geological and Climate Related Risk of the University of Geneva, Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Bonadonna, C.; Consuegra, D.; Duvernay, B.; Fäh, D.; Frischknecht, C.; Gregg, C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Lateltin, O.; Menoni, S.; Franco, R.; Rosi, M.

2014-12-01

The essence of our work at CERG-C (www.unige.ch/hazards) is to train participants, coming from around the world and with various academic and professional backgrounds, to incorporate risk science related to natural hazards into everyday life in an attempt to reduce losses in disasters. Principle components include training participants to assess risk, from hazard to vulnerability, and communicate effectively with government agencies, media, public and private sectors before, during and after natural disasters. Nine weeks of training involve 5 weeks of lectures in Geneva (in English), 2 weeks of field immersion and 2 weeks of exams. Participant experience culminates in completion of an independent research memoir carried out over an additional 6 months. The course is divided into five modules: the risk management module, which includes humanities and social sciences and brings together a multi-disciplinary team of experts to provide participants with tools they can use to assess hazard, vulnerability and risk and provide solutions to risk management issues in their own countries; and four thematic risk modules, i.e., volcanic risk, seismic risk, landslide risk, and flood and climate related risk. As part of the volcanic risk module we also carry out a role-play exercise at the elementary school in Vulcano Island, Italy in collaboration with the Italian Civil Protection with the double goal of sensitizing the CERG-C participants on the importance of training hazard and risk at an early stage in people's life as well as to raise awareness in the local population on topics such as the evaluation of volcanic hazards and risk, management of a volcanic crisis, and the importance of the collaboration between citizens and official institutions, such as the Civil Protection. The CERG-C has been training international graduate students and practitioners since 1988 on a yearly basis. To date, 350 participants have been trained from 80 countries, representing a great

Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Bioavailability and cellular effects of metals on Lumbricus terrestris inhabiting volcanic soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amaral, Andre; Soto, Manu; Cunha, Regina; Marigomez, Ionan; Rodrigues, Armindo

2006-01-01

Whether the radial thickness (RT) of the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium of earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris) reflects the bioavailability of metals in soils was investigated in two areas, one with active volcanism (Furnas) and another with no volcanic activity since 3 million years ago (Santa Maria), in the Azores. Metal contents in soil samples and earthworms from the two areas were analyzed. Autometallography and measurements of the RT were performed in the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium. Earthworms from the active volcanic area demonstrated lower RT of chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium as well as higher levels of bioavailable metals, especially Zn and Cd. Comparison of bioavailable metal contents between both areas suggests a higher risk for uptake of potentially toxic metals in the active volcanic area than in the non-active volcanic area, which is reflected by the lower RT of the chloragogenous tissue and intestinal epithelium in the former. - In earthworms, differences in the chloragogenous tissue morphometry may be related to the bioavailability of metals in soils

An indoor air quality assessment for vulnerable populations exposed to volcanic vog from Kilauea Volcano.

Science.gov (United States)

Longo, Bernadette M; Yang, Wei; Green, Joshua B; Longo, Anthony A; Harris, Merylin; Bibilone, Renwick

2010-01-01

The Ka'u District of Hawaii is exposed to sulfurous air pollution called vog from the ongoing eruption of Kilauea Volcano. Increased volcanic activity in 2008 prompted an indoor air quality assessment of the district's hospital and schools. All indoor sulfur dioxide concentrations were above the World Health Organization's average 24-hour recommendation. Indoor penetration ratios were up to 94% of ambient levels and dependent upon building construction or the use of air-conditioning. Health-promotion efforts for vulnerable populations at the hospital and schools are under way to improve indoor air quality and respond to those affected by vog exposure.

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

The onset of the volcanism in the Ciomadul Volcanic Dome Complex (Eastern Carpathians): Eruption chronology and magma type variation

Science.gov (United States)

Molnár, Kata; Harangi, Szabolcs; Lukács, Réka; Dunkl, István; Schmitt, Axel K.; Kiss, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Seghedi, Ioan

2018-04-01

volcanic eruptions were often separated by prolonged (ca. 100 to 200 kyr) quiescence periods. Demonstration of recurrence of volcanism even after such long dormancy has to be considered in assessing volcanic hazards, particularly in seemingly inactive volcanic areas, where no Holocene eruptions occurred. The term of 'volcanoes with Potentially Active Magma Storage' illustrates the potential of volcanic rejuvenation for such long-dormant volcanoes with the existence of melt-bearing crustal magma body.

Freshwater molluscs from volcanic areas as model organisms to assess adaptation to metal chronic pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaldibar, Benat; Rodrigues, Armindo; Lopes, Marco; Amaral, Andre; Marigomez, Ionan; Soto, Manu

2006-01-01

Cellular biomarkers of exposure and biological effects were measured in digestive gland of snails (Physa acuta) sampled in sites with and without active volcanism in Sao Miguel Island (Azores). Metal content in digestive cell lysosomes was determined by image analysis after autometallography (AMG) as volume density of autometallographed black silver deposits (Vv BSD ). Lysosomal structural changes (lysosomal volume, surface and numerical densities - Vv LYS, Sv LYS and Nv LYS- , and surface-to-volume ratio - S/V LYS -) were quantified by image analysis, after demonstration of β-glucuronidase activity, on digestive gland cryotome sections. Additional chemical analyses (atomic absorption spectrophotometry) were done in the digestive gland of snails. The highest metal concentrations were found in snails from the active volcanic site, which agreed with high intralysomal Vv BSD . Digestive cell lysosomes in snails inhabiting sites with active volcanism resembled a typical stress situation (enlarged and less numerous lysosomes). In conclusion, the biomarkers used in this work can be applied to detect changes in metal bioavailability due to chronic exposure to metals (volcanism), in combination with chemical analyses

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

2016-04-01

Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

Atmospheric aerosol dispersion models and their applications to environmental risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Mazur

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Numerical models of dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are widely used to forecast the spread of contaminants in the air and to analyze the effects of this phenomenon. The aim of the study is to investigate the possibilities and the quality of diagnosis and prediction of atmospheric transport of aerosols in the air using the dispersion model of atmospheric pollutants, developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMWM in Warsaw. Material and methods. A model of the dispersion of atmospheric pollutants, linked with meteorological models in a diagnostic mode, was used to simulate the transport of the cloud of aerosols released during the crash near the town of Ożydiw (Ukraine and of volcanic ash – during the volcanic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland. Results. Possible directions of dispersion of pollutants in the air and its concentration in the atmosphere and deposition to the soil were assessed. The analysis of temporal variability of concentrations of aerosols in the atmosphere confirmed that the model developed at IMWM is an effective tool for diagnosis of air quality in the area of Poland as well as for determination of exposure duration to the aerosol clouds for different weather scenarios. Conclusions. The results are a confirmation of the thesis, that because in the environmental risk assessment, an important element is not only current information on the level of pollution concentrations, but also the time of exposure to pollution and forecast of these elements, and consequently the predicted effects on man or the environment in general; so it is necessary to use forecasting tools, similar to presented application. The dispersion model described in the paper is an operational tool for description, analysis and forecasting of emergency situations in case of emissions of hazardous substances.

The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

2001-12-01

The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

Trace Element Geochemistry of Basaltic Tephra in Maar Cores; Implications for Centre Correlation, Field Evolution, and Mantle Source Characteristics of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, J. L.; Leonard, G.; Timm, C.; Wilson, C. J. N.; Neil, H.; Millet, M. A.

2014-12-01

Establishing volcanic hazard and risk management strategies hinges on a detailed understanding of the type, timing and tephra dispersal of past eruptions. In order to unravel the pyroclastic eruption history of a volcanic field, genetic links between the deposits and eruption source centre need to be established. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; New Zealand) has been active for ca. 200 kyr and comprises ca. 53 individual centres covering an area of ca. 360km2. These centres show a range of sizes and eruptive styles from maar craters and tuff rings, to scoria cones and lava flows consistent with both phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions. Superimposition of the metropolitan area of Auckland (ca. 1.4 million inhabitants) on the volcanic field makes it critically important to assess the characteristics of the volcanic activity, on which to base assessment and management of the consequent hazards. Here we present a geochemical approach for correlating tephra deposits to their source centres. To acquire the most complete stratigraphic record of pyroclastic events, maar crater cores from different locations, covering various depths and thus ages across the field were selected. Magnetic susceptibility and x-ray density scanning of the cores was used to identify the basaltic tephra horizons, which were sampled and in-situ analysis of individual shards undertaken for major and trace elements using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS techniques, respectively. Our results show that tephra shard trace element ratios are comparable and complementary to the AVF whole rock database. The use of specific trace element ratios (e.g. Gd/Yb vs. Zr/Yb) allows us to fingerprint and cross correlate tephra horizons between cores and, when coupled with newly acquired 40Ar-39Ar age dating and eruption size estimates, correlate horizons to their source centres. This integrated style of study can provide valuable information to help volcanic hazard management and forecasting, and mitigation of related risks.

Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solidum, Dr. Renato U.

2009-01-01

The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

Melt zones beneath five volcanic complexes in California: an assessment of shallow magma occurrences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldstein, N.E.; Flexser, S.

1984-12-01

Recent geological and geophysical data for five magma-hydrothermal systems were studied for the purpose of developing estimates for the depth, volume and location of magma beneath each area. The areas studied were: (1) Salton Trough, (2) The Geysers-Clear Lake, (3) Long Valley caldera, (4) Coso volcanic field, and (5) Medicine Lake volcano, all located in California and all selected on the basis of recent volcanic activity and published indications of crustal melt zones. 23 figs.

Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

2016-01-01

To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Gunkel

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO₂ occur, and an accumulation of CO₂ in the deep water body must be taken into account.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO₂ degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

Natural radioactivity in volcanic ash from Mt. Pinatubo eruption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duran, E.B.; De Vera, C.M.; Garcia, T.Y.; Dela Cruz, F.M.; Esguerra, L.V.; Castaneda, S.S.

1992-01-01

Last June 15, 1991, a major pyroclastic eruption occurred from Mt. Pinatubo volcano located in Zambales, Central Luzon. The radiological impact of this eruption was assessed based on the concentrations of the principal naturally occurring radionuclides observed in volcanic ash. The volcanic ash samples were collected from locations which are within 50-km radius of Mt. Pinatubo at various times after the eruption. The mean activity concentrations in Bq/kg wet weight of the natural radionuclides in volcanic ash were as follows: 12.6 for 238 U, 14.0 for 232 Th and 330 for 40 K. These values are significantly higher than the mean activity concentrations of these radionuclides observed in topsoil in the same provinces before the eruption. This suggests that with the deposition of large quantities of volcanic ash and lahar in Central Luzon and concomitant topographic changes, the distribution and quantities of radionuclides which gave rise to terrestrial radiation may have also changed. Outdoor radon concentrations measured three days and later after the eruption were within normal background values. (auth.). 4 refs.; 5 tabs.; 1 fig

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Earth Girl Volcano: An Interactive Casual Game about Complex Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlow, I.

2017-12-01

Earth Girl Volcano is an interactive casual strategy game for disaster preparedness. The project is designed for mainstream audiences, particularly for children, as an engaging and fun way to learn about volcano hazards, monitoring, and mitigation strategies. The game is deceptively simple but it provides a toolbox to address practically all volcanic hazards ranging from gas and ash fall to pyroclastic flows, lava and lahars. This presentation shows the basic dynamic to explore the area, assess the risk, choose the best-suited tools and execute a mitigation strategy within the available budget. This game is a real-time simulation of a crowd evacuation that allows players to intervene before and during the disaster.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Volcano-tectonic evolution of a linear volcanic ridge (Pico-Faial Ridge, Azores Triple Junction) assessed by paleomagnetic studies

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Pedro F.; Henry, Bernard; Marques, Fernando O.; Hildenbrand, Anthony; Lopes, Ana; Madureira, Pedro; Madeira, José; Nunes, João C.; Roxerová, Zuzana

2018-02-01

The morphology of volcanic oceanic islands results from the interplay between constructive and destructive processes, and tectonics. In this study, the analysis of the paleomagnetic directions obtained on well-dated volcanic rocks is used as a tool to assess tilting related to tectonics and large-scale volcano instability along the Pico-Faial linear volcanic ridge (Azores Triple Junction, Central-North Atlantic). For this purpose, 530 specimens from 46 lava flows and one dyke from Pico and Faial islands were submitted to thermal and alternating magnetic fields demagnetizations. Detailed rock magnetic analyses, including thermomagnetic analyses and classical high magnetic field experiments revealed titanomagnetites with different Ti-content as the primary magnetic carrier, capable of recording stable remanent magnetizations. In both islands, the paleomagnetic analysis yields a Characteristic Remanent Magnetization, which presents island mean direction with normal and reversed polarities in agreement with the islands location and the age of the studied lava flows, indicating a primary thermo-remanent magnetization. Field observations and paleomagnetic data show that lava flows were emplaced on pre-existing slopes and were later affected by significant tilting. In Faial Island, magmatic inflation and normal faults making up an island-scale graben, can be responsible for the tilting. In Pico Island, inflation related to magma intrusion during flow emplacement can be at the origin of the inferred tilting, whereas gradual downward movement of the SE flank by slumping processes appears mostly translational.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

2015-12-01

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

2013-08-01

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg-1) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg-1). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark—in pyroclastic wounds—and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg-1) and bark (6.0 μg kg-1) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

2013-08-01

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg(-1)) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg(-1)). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark-in pyroclastic wounds-and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg(-1)) and bark (6.0 μg kg(-1)) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

2017-12-01

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

Mechanism of formation of volcanic bombs: insights from a pilot study of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and preliminary assessment of analytical models

Science.gov (United States)

Cañón-Tapia, Edgardo

2017-07-01

Volcanic bombs and achneliths are a special type of pyroclastic fragments formed by mildly explosive volcanic eruptions. Models explaining the general shapes of those particles can be divided in two broad categories. The most popular envisages the acquisition of shapes of volcanic bombs as the result of the rush of air acting on a fluid clot during flight, and it includes many variants. The less commonly quoted model envisages their shapes as the result of forces acting at the moment of ejection of liquid from the magma pool in the conduit, experiencing an almost negligible modification through its travel through air. Quantitative evidence supporting either of those two models is limited. In this work, I explore the extent to which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) might be useful in the study of mechanisms of formation of volcanic bombs by comparing measurements made on two spindle and two bread-crusted bombs. The results of this pilot study reveal that the degree of anisotropy of spindle bombs is larger, and their principal susceptibility axes are better clustered than on bread-crusted bombs. Also, the orientation of the principal susceptibility axes is consistent with two specific models (one of the in-flight variants and the general ejection model). Consequently, the reported AMS measurements, albeit limited in number, indicate that it is reasonable to focus attention on only two specific models to explain the acquisition of the shapes of volcanic bombs. Based on a parallel theoretical assessment of analytical models, a third alternative is outlined, envisaging volcanic bomb formation as a two-stage process that involves the bursting of large ( m) gas bubbles on the surface of a magma pond. The new model advanced here is also consistent with the reported AMS results, and constitutes a working hypothesis that should be tested by future studies richer in data. Fortunately, since this work also establishes that AMS can be used to determine magnetic

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

The Volcanism Ontology (VO): a model of the volcanic system

Science.gov (United States)

Myer, J.; Babaie, H. A.

2017-12-01

We have modeled a part of the complex material and process entities and properties of the volcanic system in the Volcanism Ontology (VO) applying several top-level ontologies such as Basic Formal Ontology (BFO), SWEET, and Ontology of Physics for Biology (OPB) within a single framework. The continuant concepts in BFO describe features with instances that persist as wholes through time and have qualities (attributes) that may change (e.g., state, composition, and location). In VO, the continuants include lava, volcanic rock, and volcano. The occurrent concepts in BFO include processes, their temporal boundaries, and the spatio-temporal regions within which they occur. In VO, these include eruption (process), the onset of pyroclastic flow (temporal boundary), and the space and time span of the crystallization of lava in a lava tube (spatio-temporal region). These processes can be of physical (e.g., debris flow, crystallization, injection), atmospheric (e.g., vapor emission, ash particles blocking solar radiation), hydrological (e.g., diffusion of water vapor, hot spring), thermal (e.g., cooling of lava) and other types. The properties (predicates) relate continuants to other continuants, occurrents to continuants, and occurrents to occurrents. The ontology also models other concepts such as laboratory and field procedures by volcanologists, sampling by sensors, and the type of instruments applied in monitoring volcanic activity. When deployed on the web, VO will be used to explicitly and formally annotate data and information collected by volcanologists based on domain knowledge. This will enable the integration of global volcanic data and improve the interoperability of software that deal with such data.

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Selective extraction methods for aluminium, iron and organic carbon from montane volcanic ash soils

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, B.; Tonneijck, F.H.; Verstraten, J.M.

2011-01-01

Montane volcanic ash soils contain disproportionate amounts of soil organic carbon and thereby play an often underestimated role in the global carbon cycle. Given the central role of Al and Fe in stabilizing organic matter in volcanic ash soils, we assessed various extraction methods of Al, Fe, and

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wittenberg, Andrew; Zeng, Fanrong

2009-01-01

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Candidate constructional volcanic edifices on Mercury

OpenAIRE

Wright, J.; Rothery, D. A.; Balme, M. R.; Conway, S. J.

2018-01-01

[Introduction] Studies using MESSENGER data suggest that Mercury’s crust is predominantly a product of effusive volcanism that occurred in the first billion years following the planet’s formation. Despite this planet-wide effusive volcanism, no constructional volcanic edifices, characterized by a topographic rise, have hitherto been robustly identified on Mercury, whereas constructional volcanoes are common on other planetary bodies in the solar system with volcanic histories. Here, we descri...

Cooling Rates of Lunar Volcanic Glass Beads

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Hejiu; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Zhang, Youxue; Peslier, Anne; Lange, Rebecca; Dingwell, Donald; Neal, Clive

2016-01-01

It is widely accepted that the Apollo 15 green and Apollo 17 orange glass beads are of volcanic origin. The diffusion profiles of volatiles in these glass beads are believed to be due to degassing during eruption (Saal et al., 2008). The degree of degassing depends on the initial temperature and cooling rate. Therefore, the estimations of volatiles in parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits depend on melt cooling rates. Furthermore, lunar glass beads may have cooled in volcanic environments on the moon. Therefore, the cooling rates may be used to assess the atmospheric condition in an early moon, when volcanic activities were common. The cooling rates of glasses can be inferred from direct heat capacity measurements on the glasses themselves (Wilding et al., 1995, 1996a,b). This method does not require knowledge of glass cooling environments and has been applied to calculate the cooling rates of natural silicate glasses formed in different terrestrial environments. We have carried out heat capacity measurements on hand-picked lunar glass beads using a Netzsch DSC 404C Pegasus differential scanning calorimeter at University of Munich. Our preliminary results suggest that the cooling rate of Apollo 17 orange glass beads may be 12 K/min, based on the correlation between temperature of the heat capacity curve peak in the glass transition range and glass cooling rate. The results imply that the parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits may have contained more water initially than the early estimations (Saal et al., 2008), which used higher cooling rates, 60-180 K/min in the modeling. Furthermore, lunar volcanic glass beads could have been cooled in a hot gaseous medium released from volcanic eruptions, not during free flight. Therefore, our results may shed light on atmospheric condition in an early moon.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

2009-01-01

Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

The scientific management of volcanic crises

Science.gov (United States)

Marzocchi, Warner; Newhall, Christopher; Woo, Gordon

2012-12-01

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

Science.gov (United States)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Using Volcanic Lightning Measurements to Discern Variations in Explosive Volcanic Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Behnke, S. A.; Thomas, R. J.; McNutt, S. R.; Edens, H. E.; Krehbiel, P. R.; Rison, W.

2013-12-01

VHF observations of volcanic lightning have been made during the recent eruptions of Augustine Volcano (2006, Alaska, USA), Redoubt Volcano (2009, Alaska, USA), and Eyjafjallajökull (2010, Iceland). These show that electrical activity occurs both on small scales at the vent of the volcano, concurrent with an eruptive event and on large scales throughout the eruption column during and subsequent to an eruptive event. The small-scale discharges at the vent of the volcano are often referred to as 'vent discharges' and are on the order of 10-100 meters in length and occur at rates on the order of 1000 per second. The high rate of vent discharges produces a distinct VHF signature that is sometimes referred to as 'continuous RF' radiation. VHF radiation from vent discharges has been observed at sensors placed as far as 100 km from the volcano. VHF and infrasound measurements have shown that vent discharges occur simultaneously with the onset of eruption, making their detection an unambiguous indicator of explosive volcanic activity. The fact that vent discharges are observed concurrent with explosive volcanic activity indicates that volcanic ejecta are charged upon eruption. VHF observations have shown that the intensity of vent discharges varies between eruptive events, suggesting that fluctuations in eruptive processes affect the electrification processes giving rise to vent discharges. These fluctuations may be variations in eruptive vigor or variations in the type of eruption; however, the data obtained so far do not show a clear relationship between eruption parameters and the intensity or occurrence of vent discharges. Further study is needed to clarify the link between vent discharges and eruptive behavior, such as more detailed lightning observations concurrent with tephra measurements and other measures of eruptive strength. Observations of vent discharges, and volcanic lightning observations in general, are a valuable tool for volcano monitoring, providing a

Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

2009-12-01

The dispersion of volcanic ash during the March 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt created the potential for major problems for aviation. Mt. Redoubt is located 110 km west-southwest of Alaska Airlines hub in Anchorage. It last erupted in 1990 and caused an estimated $101 million cost to the aviation industry (Waythomas, 1998). This study was conducted to assist in improving warning systems, policy and procedures for addressing the impact of volcanic ash on aviation. The study had two primary components. First, the altitude and extent of SO2 dispersion was determined through analysis of synoptic meteorological conditions and satellite imagery. Second, impacts on aviation from the volcanic ash dispersion were investigated. OMI SO2 column measurements were employed to assess the altitude and extent of SO2 dispersion of volcanic ash. To accomplish this, OMI data were assimilated with CALIPSO backscatter profiles, geopotential height plots, and HYSPLIT forward model trajectories. Volcanic Ash Advisories were compared to airport and pilot reports to assess aviation impacts. The eruption produced a complex dispersion of volcanic ash. Volcanic ash altitudes estimated for 23 March 2009 indicate that the majority of the plume remained at approximately 8 km, although reports indicate that the initial plume may have reached as high as18 km (60,000 ft). A low pressure system which passed over the eruption area appears to have entrained most of the ash at approximately 8 km, however the CALIPSO satellite indicates that dispersion also extended to 10 km and 16 km. Atmospheric patterns suggest dispersion at approximately 3 km near Hudson Bay. Analysis of 25 March 2009 indicates that much of the ash plume was dispersed at higher altitudes, where CALIPSO data locates the stratospheric ash plume at approximately 14 km above mean sea level. By the time the eruptions had subsided in April, Alaska Airlines had cancelled 295 flights and disrupted the flights of over 20,000 passengers. This

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. F. Tjiputra

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with a business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller eruptions similar to Pinatubo in amplitude, but set to occur frequently, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before it returns to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades, and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. Our climate-carbon feedback analysis shows that future volcanic eruptions induce positive feedbacks (i.e., more carbon sink on both the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle. The feedback signal on the ocean is consistently smaller than the terrestrial counterpart and the feedback strength is proportionally related to the frequency of the volcanic eruption events. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45 % increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO₂ gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by a reduced CO₂ partial pressure gradient between the ocean and the atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even

Real-time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

Science.gov (United States)

Krotkov, N. A.; Hughes, E. J.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Seftor, C. J.; Brentzel, K. W.; Hassinen, S.; Heinrichs, T. A.; Schneider, D. J.; Hoffman, R.; Myers, T.; Flynn, L. E.; Niu, J.; Theys, N.; Brenot, H. H.

2016-12-01

We will discuss progress of the NASA ASP project, which promotes the use of satellite volcanic SO2 (VSO2) and Ash (VA) data, and forecasting tools that enhance VA Decision Support Systems (DSS) at the VA Advisory Centers (VAACs) for prompt aviation warnings. The goals are: (1) transition NASA algorithms to NOAA for global NRT processing and integration into DSS at Washington VAAC for operational users and public dissemination; (2) Utilize Direct Broadcast capability of the Aura and SNPP satellites to process Direct Readout (DR) data at two high latitude locations in Finland and Fairbanks, Alaska to enhance VA DSS in Europe and at USGS's Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) and Alaska-VAAC; (3) Improve global Eulerian model-based VA/VSO2 forecasting and risk/cost assessments with Metron Aviation. Our global NRT OMI and OMPS data have been fully integrated into European Support to Aviation Control Service and NOAA operational web sites. We are transitioning OMPS processing to our partners at NOAA/NESDIS to integrate into operational processing environment. NASA's Suomi NPP Ozone Science Team, in conjunction with GSFC's Direct Readout Laboratory (DRL), have implemented Version 2 of the OMPS real-time DR processing package to generate VSO2 and VA products at the Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) and the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The system provides real-time coverage over some of the most congested airspace and over many of the most active volcanoes in the world. The OMPS real time capability is now publicly available via DRL's IPOPP package. We use satellite observations to define volcanic source term estimates in the NASA GOES-5 model, which was updated allowing for the simulation of VA and VSO2 clouds. Column SO2 observations from SNPP/OMPS provide an initial estimate of the total cloud SO2 mass, and are used with backward transport analysis to make an initial cloud height estimate. Later VSO2 observations are used to "nudge" the SO2 mass

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Volcanic glass signatures in spectroscopic survey of newly proposed lunar pyroclastic deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Besse, S.; Sunshine, J.M.; Gaddis, L.R.

2014-01-01

Moon Mineralogy Mapper spectroscopic observations are used to assess the mineralogy of five sites that have recently been proposed to include lunar dark mantle deposits (DMDs). Volcanic glasses have, for the first time, clearly been identified at the location of three of the proposed pyroclastic deposits. This is the first time that volcanic glasses have been identified at such a small scale on the lunar surface from remote sensing observations. Deposits at Birt E, Schluter, and Walther A appear to be glassy DMDs. Deposits at Birt E and Schluter show (1) morphological evidence suggesting a likely vent and (2) mineralogical evidence indicative of the presence of volcanic glasses. The Walther A deposits, although they show no morphological evidence of vents, have the spectroscopic characteristics diagnostic of volcanic glasses. The deposits of the Freundlich-Sharonov basin are separated in two areas: (1) the Buys-Ballot deposits lack mineralogical and morphological evidence and thus are found to be associated with mare volcanism not with DMDs and (2) the Anderson crater deposits, which do not exhibit glassy DMD signatures, but they appear to be associated with possible vent structures and so may be classifiable as DMDs. Finally, dark deposits near the crater Kopff are found to be associated with likely mare volcanism and not associated with DMDs. The spectral identification of volcanic glass seen in many of the potential DMDs is a strong indicator of their pyroclastic origin.

Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Bebbington, Mark S.

2015-05-01

The idea of a volcanic field `boundary' is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a `hard' boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the `gaps' between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach II: Insights into transportation network damage and functionality

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Daniel M.; Deligne, Natalia I.; Wilson, Thomas M.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Woods, Richard

2017-06-01

Transportation networks are critical infrastructure in urban environments. Before, during and following volcanic activity, these networks can incur direct and indirect impacts, which subsequently reduces the Level-of-Service available to transportation end-users. Additionally, reductions in service can arise from management strategies including evacuation zoning, causing additional complications for transportation end-users and operators. Here, we develop metrics that incorporate Level-of-Service for transportation end-users as the key measure of vulnerability for multi-hazard volcanic impact and risk assessments. A hypothetical eruption scenario recently developed for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, is applied to describe potential impacts of a small basaltic eruption on different transportation modes, namely road, rail, and activities at airports and ports. We demonstrate how the new metrics can be applied at specific locations worldwide by considering the geophysical hazard sequence and evacuation zones in this scenario, a process that was strongly informed by consultation with transportation infrastructure providers and emergency management officials. We also discuss the potential implications of modified hazard sequences (e.g. different wind profiles during the scenario, and unrest with no resulting eruption) on transportation vulnerability and population displacement. The vent area of the eruption scenario used in our study is located north of the Māngere Bridge suburb of Auckland. The volcanic activity in the scenario progresses from seismic unrest, through phreatomagmatic explosions generating pyroclastic surges to a magmatic phase generating a scoria cone and lava flows. We find that most physical damage to transportation networks occurs from pyroclastic surges during the initial stages of the eruption. However, the most extensive service reduction across all networks occurs 6 days prior to the eruption onset, largely attributed to the

Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

2015-04-01

Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

Soil CO2 flux baseline in an urban monogenetic volcanic field: the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Mazot, Agnès; Smid, Elaine R.; Schwendenmann, Luitgard; Delgado-Granados, Hugo; Lindsay, Jan

2013-11-01

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a dormant monogenetic basaltic field located in Auckland, New Zealand. Though soil gas CO2 fluxes are routinely used to monitor volcanic regions, there have been no published studies of soil CO2 flux or soil gas CO2 concentrations in the AVF to date or many other monogenetic fields worldwide. We measured soil gas CO2 fluxes and soil gas CO2 concentrations in 2010 and 2012 in varying settings, seasons, and times of day to establish a baseline soil CO2 flux and to determine the major sources of and controlling influences on Auckland's soil CO2 flux. Soil CO2 flux measurements varied from 0 to 203 g m-2 day-1, with an average of 27.1 g m-2 day-1. Higher fluxes were attributed to varying land use properties (e.g., landfill). Using a graphical statistical approach, two populations of CO2 fluxes were identified. Isotope analyses of δ13CO2 confirmed that the source of CO2 in the AVF is biogenic with no volcanic component. These data may be used to assist with eruption forecasting in the event of precursory activity in the AVF, and highlight the importance of knowing land use history when assessing soil gas CO2 fluxes in urban environments.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Atla Regio, Venus: Geology and origin of a major equatorial volcanic rise

Science.gov (United States)

Senske, D. A.; Head, James W., III

1992-01-01

Regional volcanic rises form a major part of the highlands in the equatorial region of Venus. These broad domical uplands, 1000 to 3000 km across, contain centers of volcanism forming large edifices and are associated with extension and rifting. Two classes of rises are observed: (1) those that are dominated by tectonism, acting as major centers for converging rifts such as Beta Regio and Alta Regio, and are termed tectonic junctions; and (2) those forming uplands characterized primarily by large-scale volcanism forming edifices. Western Eistla Regio and Bell Regio, where zones of extension and rifting are less developed. Within this second class of features the edifices are typically found at the end of a single rift, or are associated with a linear belt of deformation. We examine the geologic characteristics of the tectonic junction at Alta Regio, concentrating on documenting the styles of volcanism and assessing mechanisms for the formation of regional topography.

Visualizing Volcanic Clouds in the Atmosphere and Their Impact on Air Traffic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunther, Tobias; Schulze, Maik; Friederici, Anke; Theisel, Holger

2016-01-01

Volcanic eruptions are not only hazardous in the direct vicinity of a volcano, but they also affect the climate and air travel for great distances. This article sheds light on the Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro eruptions in 2011. The authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of Nabro's sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. The results here were developed for the 2014 IEEE Scientific Visualization Contest, which centers around the fusion of multiple satellite data modalities to reconstruct and assess the movement of volcanic ash and sulfate aerosol emissions. Using data from three volcanic eruptions that occurred in the span of approximately three weeks, the authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. This video provides animations of the reconstructed ash clouds. https://youtu.be/D9DvJ5AvZAs.

Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

2009-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Closer look at lunar volcanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaniman, D.T.; Heiken, G.; Taylor, G.J.

1984-01-01

Although the American Apollo and Soviet Luna missions concentrated on mare basalt samples, major questions remain about lunar volcanism. Lunar field work will be indispensable for resolving the scientific questions about ages, compositions, and eruption processes of lunar volcanism. From a utilitarian standpoint, a better knowledge of lunar volcanism will also yield profitable returns in lunar base construction (e.g., exploitation of rille or lava-tube structures) and in access to materials such as volatile elements, pure glass, or ilmenite for lunar industry

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Lidar sounding of volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Angelini, Federico; Borelli, Rodolfo; Del Franco, Mario; Murra, Daniele; Pistilli, Marco; Puiu, Adriana; Santoro, Simone

2013-10-01

Accurate knowledge of gas composition in volcanic plumes has high scientific and societal value. On the one hand, it gives information on the geophysical processes taking place inside volcanos; on the other hand, it provides alert on possible eruptions. For this reasons, it has been suggested to monitor volcanic plumes by lidar. In particular, one of the aims of the FP7 ERC project BRIDGE is the measurement of CO2 concentration in volcanic gases by differential absorption lidar. This is a very challenging task due to the harsh environment, the narrowness and weakness of the CO2 absorption lines and the difficulty to procure a suitable laser source. This paper, after a review on remote sensing of volcanic plumes, reports on the current progress of the lidar system.

Gas measurements from the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment suggest possible along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Aiuppa, A.; Robidoux, P.; Tamburello, G.; Conde, V.; Galle, B.; Avard, G.; Bagnato, E.; De Moor, J. M.; Martínez, M.; Muñóz, A.

2014-12-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of the CO2 output from arc volcanism requires a precise understanding of the potential along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry, and ultimately of the magmatic gas signature of each individual arc segment. In an attempt to more fully constrain the magmatic gas signature of the Central America Volcanic Arc (CAVA), we present here the results of a volcanic gas survey performed during March and April 2013 at five degassing volcanoes within the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment (CNVS). Observations of the volcanic gas plume made with a multicomponent gas analyzer system (Multi-GAS) have allowed characterization of the CO2/SO2-ratio signature of the plumes at Poás (0.30±0.06, mean ± SD), Rincón de la Vieja (27.0±15.3), and Turrialba (2.2±0.8) in Costa Rica, and at Telica (3.0±0.9) and San Cristóbal (4.2±1.3) in Nicaragua (all ratios on molar basis). By scaling these plume compositions to simultaneously measured SO2 fluxes, we estimate that the CO2 outputs at CNVS volcanoes range from low (25.5±11.0 tons/day at Poás) to moderate (918 to 1270 tons/day at Turrialba). These results add a new information to the still fragmentary volcanic CO2 output data set, and allow estimating the total CO2 output from the CNVS at 2835±1364 tons/day. Our novel results, with previously available information about gas emissions in Central America, are suggestive of distinct volcanic gas CO2/ST (= SO2 + H2S)-ratio signature for magmatic volatiles in Nicaragua (∼3) relative to Costa Rica (∼0.5-1.0). We also provide additional evidence for the earlier theory relating the CO2-richer signature of Nicaragua volcanism to increased contributions from slab-derived fluids, relative to more-MORB-like volcanism in Costa Rica. The sizeable along-arc variations in magmatic gas chemistry that the present study has suggested indicate that additional gas observations are urgently needed to more-precisely confine the volcanic CO2 from the CAVA, and from

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Structural control of monogenetic volcanism in the Garrotxa volcanic field (Northeastern Spain) from gravity and self-potential measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Barde-Cabusson, S.; Gottsmann, J.; Martí, J.; Bolós, X.; Camacho, A. G.; Geyer, A.; Planagumà, Ll.; Ronchin, E.; Sánchez, A.

2014-01-01

We report new geophysical observations on the distribution of subsurface structures associated with monogenetic volcanism in the Garrotxa volcanic field (Northern Spain). As part of the Catalan Volcanic Zone, this Quaternary volcanic field is associated with the European rifts system. It contains the most recent and best preserved volcanic edifices of the Catalan Volcanic Zone with 38 monogenetic volcanoes identified in the Garrotxa Natural Park. We conducted new gravimetric and self-potential surveys to enhance our understanding of the relationship between the local geology and the spatial distribution of the monogenetic volcanoes. The main finding of this study is that the central part of the volcanic field is dominated by a broad negative Bouguer anomaly of around -0.5 mGal, within which a series of gravity minima are found with amplitudes of up to -2.3 mGal. Inverse modelling of the Bouguer data suggests that surficial low-density material dominates the volcanic field, most likely associated with effusive and explosive surface deposits. In contrast, an arcuate cluster of gravity minima to the NW of the Croscat volcano, the youngest volcano of this zone, is modelled by vertically extended low-density bodies, which we interpret as a complex ensemble of fault damage zones and the roots of young scoria cones. A ground-water infiltration zone identified by a self-potential anomaly is associated with a steep horizontal Bouguer gravity gradient and interpreted as a fault zone and/or magmatic fissure, which fed the most recent volcanic activity in the Garrotxa. Gravimetric and self-potential data are well correlated and indicate a control on the locations of scoria cones by NNE-SSW and NNW-SSE striking tectonic features, which intersect the main structural boundaries of the study area to the north and south. Our interpretation of the data is that faults facilitated magma ascent to the surface. Our findings have major implications for understanding the relationship

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

1995-07-01

In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Geophysical expression of caldera related volcanism, structures and mineralization in the McDermitt volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Rytuba, J. J.; Blakely, R. J.; Moring, B.; Miller, R.

2013-12-01

The High Rock, Lake Owyhee, and McDermitt volcanic fields, consisting of regionally extensive ash flow tuffs and associated calderas, developed in NW Nevada and SE Oregon following eruption of the ca. 16.7 Ma Steens flood basalt. The first ash flow, the Tuff of Oregon Canyon, erupted from the McDermitt volcanic field at 16.5Ma. It is chemically zoned from peralkaline rhyolite to dacite with trace element ratios that distinguish it from other ash flow tuffs. The source caldera, based on tuff distribution, thickness, and size of lithic fragments, is in the area in which the McDermitt caldera (16.3 Ma) subsequently formed. Gravity and magnetic anomalies are associated with some but not all of the calderas. The White Horse caldera (15.6 Ma), the youngest caldera in the McDermitt volcanic field has the best geophysical expression, with both aeromagnetic and gravity lows coinciding with the caldera. Detailed aeromagnetic and gravity surveys of the McDermitt caldera, combined with geology and radiometric surveys, provides insight into the complexities of caldera collapse, resurgence, post collapse volcanism, and hydrothermal mineralization. The McDermitt caldera is among the most mineralized calderas in the world, whereas other calderas in these three Mid Miocene volcanic fields do not contain important hydrothermal ore deposits, despite having similar age and chemistry. The McDermitt caldera is host to Hg, U, and Li deposits and potentially significant resources of Ga, Sb, and REE. The geophysical data indicate that post-caldera collapse intrusions were important in formation of the hydrothermal systems. An aeromagnetic low along the E caldera margin reflects an intrusion at a depth of 2 km associated with the near-surface McDermitt-hot-spring-type Hg-Sb deposit, and the deeper level, high-sulfidation Ga-REE occurrence. The Li deposits on the W side of the caldera are associated with a series of low amplitude, small diameter aeromagnetic anomalies that form a continuous

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David E; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara

2018-07-01

Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited. The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm 2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm 2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO 2 ). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses. Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface

Science.gov (United States)

Tomasek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauer, Barbara

2018-01-01

Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited.The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO2). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses.Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

BYMUR software: a free and open source tool for quantifying and visualizing multi-risk analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo

2013-04-01

The BYMUR software aims to provide an easy-to-use open source tool for both computing multi-risk and managing/visualizing/comparing all the inputs (e.g. hazard, fragilities and exposure) as well as the corresponding results (e.g. risk curves, risk indexes). For all inputs, a complete management of inter-model epistemic uncertainty is considered. The BYMUR software will be one of the final products provided by the homonymous ByMuR project (http://bymur.bo.ingv.it/) funded by Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR), focused to (i) provide a quantitative and objective general method for a comprehensive long-term multi-risk analysis in a given area, accounting for inter-model epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian methodologies, and (ii) apply the methodology to seismic, volcanic and tsunami risks in Naples (Italy). More specifically, the BYMUR software will be able to separately account for the probabilistic hazard assessment of different kind of hazardous phenomena, the relative (time-dependent/independent) vulnerabilities and exposure data, and their possible (predefined) interactions: the software will analyze these inputs and will use them to estimate both single- and multi- risk associated to a specific target area. In addition, it will be possible to connect the software to further tools (e.g., a full hazard analysis), allowing a dynamic I/O of results. The use of Python programming language guarantees that the final software will be open source and platform independent. Moreover, thanks to the integration of some most popular and rich-featured Python scientific modules (Numpy, Matplotlib, Scipy) with the wxPython graphical user toolkit, the final tool will be equipped with a comprehensive Graphical User Interface (GUI) able to control and visualize (in the form of tables, maps and/or plots) any stage of the multi-risk analysis. The additional features of importing/exporting data in MySQL databases and/or standard XML formats (for

Does exposure to lahars risk affect people's risk-preferences and other attitudes? Field data from incentivized experiments and surveys in Arequipa - Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Heitz, C.; Bchir, M. A.; Willinger, M.

2012-04-01

Many individuals are exposed to risks which are either difficult to insure or hard to mitigate, such as tsunamis, floods, volcanic eruption,... Little is known about how exposure to such risks shapes individuals' risk-preferences. Are they more (less) risk-averse than people who are unexposed to such hazard risk? We provide empirical evidence about this question for the case of individuals exposed to lahars risk. Lahars are sediments laden flows from volcanic origin. We compare the risk-attitude of people exposed - versus non-exposed ones - to lahars risk. The originality of our approach is that we combine standard survey data to behavioural data collected by means of incentivized experiments. We collected data in various locations of the city of Arequipa (Peru), a densely populated area down the volcano El Misti. Participants in our experiment were identified as (non-)exposed to lahars risk based on risk zoning. Our survey questionnaire allows us to compare assessed exposure and the perceived exposure. We elicit risk-preference, time-preference, and trusting behaviour (a measure of social capital) for each respondent in addition to standard survey data. Our field experiment involved a total of 209 respondents from exposed and non-exposed areas. While respondents endow legitimacy in risk reduction (more than 74%) to a national authority (Defensa Civil) in charge of the management of risk in the city, more than 64% of them consider that they are not sufficiently informed about the behaviours to adopt in case of a disaster. Respondents are therefore poorly motivated to adopt initiatives of self-protection (23%) and express instead high expectations with respect to authorities' actions for decreasing their vulnerability (73%). The experimental data show that participants who live in exposed areas are not significantly more risk-averse than those living in non-exposed ones. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in time-preference between exposed and non

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Volcanic hazards and public response

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Donald W.

1988-05-01

Although scientific understanding of volcanoes is advancing, eruptions continue to take a substantial toll of life and property. Some of these losses could be reduced by better advance preparation, more effective flow of information between scientists and public officials, and better understanding of volcanic behavior by all segments of the public. The greatest losses generally occur at volcanoes that erupt infrequently where people are not accustomed to dealing with them. Scientists sometimes tend to feel that the blame for poor decisions in emergency management lies chiefly with officials or journalists because of their failure to understand the threat. However, the underlying problem embraces a set of more complex issues comprising three pervasive factors. The first factor is the volcano: signals given by restless volcanoes are often ambiguous and difficult to interpret, especially at long-quiescent volcanoes. The second factor is people: people confront hazardous volcanoes in widely divergent ways, and many have difficulty in dealing with the uncertainties inherent in volcanic unrest. The third factor is the scientists: volcanologists correctly place their highest priority on monitoring and hazard assessment, but they sometimes fail to explain clearly their conclusions to responsible officials and the public, which may lead to inadequate public response. Of all groups in society, volcanologists have the clearest understanding of the hazards and vagaries of volcanic activity; they thereby assume an ethical obligation to convey effectively their knowledge to benefit all of society. If society resists, their obligation nevertheless remains. They must use the same ingenuity and creativity in dealing with information for the public that they use in solving scientific problems. When this falls short, even excellent scientific results may be nullified.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Presence of soil gas and indoor Radon in volcanic areas located in Latium and Campania Regions, Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buccheri, G.; Addonizio, P.; Rinaldini, A.

2017-01-01

In Italy, radon highest concentrations concern all Tyrrhenian belt. The abundant distribution of the radioactive elements in Latium and in Campania, often accompanied by emissions of endogenic gas (CO_2, CO and H_2S), is strictly related to quaternary alkali-potassic volcanism. This article reports about connection between Radon presence and geology (which also influences the most used building materials) within two active areas in Latium and Campania Regions (Italy). Colli Albani are located in Latium. This area is considered as a quiescent volcano, whose last eruptive phase dates back to 41-36 kya, with deposition of Peperino di Albano, a lithoid granular tuff that Romans commonly used as a building and decorative material (lapis albanus). Campania is the second Region of Italy as for population (and more than 50 % of its 6 million of inhabitants are concentrated in the Province of Naples), and volcanism is mainly connected there to the presence of a deep and large volcanic complex, related to a mantle anomaly. INAIL is busy in research activity for evaluation and management of risk for health at workplaces, connected to exposure to indoor radon, taking into account of active laws. Starting from knowledge about geologic activity in Latium and in Campania, the aim of INAIL research activity is estimation of hazard, because of Rn, CO_2 and other endogenic toxic gases, at workplaces located in both Regions. In order to estimate risk from Radon, INAIL carried out soil gas measurements in Alban Hills area, and one more series of Radon measurements has been planned downtown in Naples, where many commercial and artisanal activities are located underground (mainly in tuffaceous buildings). According to the indications provided by the Directive 2013/59/Euratom, INAIL measurements will be aimed to realize Radon Potential Maps (RPM), that may help Italian Institutions to identify hazard areas, realize an effective territorial plan and to assess health risk. (authors)

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Estimating Losses from Volcanic Ash in case of a Mt. Baekdu Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Soonyoung; Yoon, Seong-Min; Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong

2014-05-01

We will present the preliminary result of economic losses in South Korea in case of a Mt. Baedu eruption. The Korean peninsula has Mt. Baekdu in North Korea, which will soon enter an active phase, according to volcanologists. The anticipated eruption will be explosive given the viscous and grassy silica-rich magma, and is expected to be one of the largest in recent millennia. We aim to assess the impacts of this eruption to South Korea and help government prepare for the volcanic disasters. In particular, the economic impact from volcanic ash is estimated given the distance from Mt. Baedu to South Korea. In order to scientifically estimate losses from volcanic ash, we need volcanic ash thickness, inventory database, and damage functions between ash thickness and damage ratios for each inventory item. We use the volcanic ash thickness calculated by other research groups in Korea, and they estimated the ash thickness for each eruption scenario using average wind fields. Damage functions are built using the historical damage data in the world, and inventory database is obtained from available digital maps in Korea. According to the preliminary results, the economic impact from volcanic ash is not significant because the ash is rarely deposited in South Korea under general weather conditions. However, the ash can impact human health and environment. Also worst case scenarios can have the significant economic impacts in Korea, and may result in global issues. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-3] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Mercury and Iodine systematics of volcanic arc fluids

Science.gov (United States)

Varekamp, J. C.; Kading, T.; Fehn, U.; Lu, Z.

2008-12-01

The mantle has low Mercury and Iodine concentrations, but these elements occur in volcanic gases and hydrothermal fluids at ppb (Hg) and ppm (Iodine) levels. Possibly, the Hg and Iodine concentrations in volcanic fluids reflect subducted sediment sources in arc magmas. Iodine is a biophilic element, and I129/I values indicate that subducted sediment (especially organic matter) is an important Iodine source for arc magmas. It is uncertain if this is true for Hg as well, although in the surface environment Hg is commonly associated with organic matter. We present 60 new analyses of Hg and I in fluids from volcanoes in Central America, New Zealand, Japan, and the Cascades. A first assessment suggests that Iodine is released to some degree in the early stage of subduction in the forearc, whereas Hg may be released largely below the main volcanic arc. Isotope and trace element signatures of volcanic rocks of the investigated volcanoes show no simple correlation with Hg or Iodine abundances. The acid hot spring fluids of Copahue volcano (Argentina) carried ~ 200 ppt Hg in January 1999, ~80 ppt Hg in March 2008, and 90 ppt Hg in the crater lake in March 1997. The dissolved Hg fluxes from the Copahue hydrothermal system are ~300 gr Hg/year in 1999 and ~130 gr Hg/year in 2008. The bulk hydrothermal Hg flux (particle bound+dissolved) in 2008 was ~ 350 gr Hg/year. The potential Mercury evasion from these hydrothermal spring fluids into the air has not yet been incorporated in these estimates.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Global volcanic emissions: budgets, plume chemistry and impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mather, T. A.

2012-12-01

Over the past few decades our understanding of global volcanic degassing budgets, plume chemistry and the impacts of volcanic emissions on our atmosphere and environment has been revolutionized. Global volcanic emissions budgets are needed if we are to make effective use of regional and global atmospheric models in order to understand the consequences of volcanic degassing on global environmental evolution. Traditionally volcanic SO2 budgets have been the best constrained but recent efforts have seen improvements in the quantification of the budgets of other environmentally important chemical species such as CO2, the halogens (including Br and I) and trace metals (including measurements relevant to trace metal atmospheric lifetimes and bioavailability). Recent measurements of reactive trace gas species in volcanic plumes have offered intriguing hints at the chemistry occurring in the hot environment at volcanic vents and during electrical discharges in ash-rich volcanic plumes. These reactive trace species have important consequences for gas plume chemistry and impacts, for example, in terms of the global fixed nitrogen budget, volcanically induced ozone destruction and particle fluxes to the atmosphere. Volcanically initiated atmospheric chemistry was likely to have been particularly important before biological (and latterly anthropogenic) processes started to dominate many geochemical cycles, with important consequences in terms of the evolution of the nitrogen cycle and the role of particles in modulating the Earth's climate. There are still many challenges and open questions to be addressed in this fascinating area of science.

Initial results from the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia project: Microearthquakes in the northern Harrat Rahat monogenetic volcanic field, Madinah, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Kenedi, C. L.; Alvarez, M. G.; Abdelwahed, M. F.; Aboud, E.; Lindsay, J. M.; Mokhtar, T. A.; Moufti, M. R.

2012-12-01

An 8-station borehole seismic research array is recording microearthquake data in northern Harrat Rahat. This recently active monogenetic volcanic field lies southeast of the Islamic holy city of Madinah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The VORiSA seismographs are operated in collaboration between King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah and the Institute of Earth Science and Engineering, University of Auckland, in New Zealand. The goal of the VORiSA project is to evaluate the seismic and volcanic hazard around Madinah. To this end, we will evaluate the local earthquake activity including the extent to which local earthquakes are tectonic or volcanic. We also will use seismicity to understand the subsurface structure. The analytical goals of the seismic research array are the following: (1) Calculate a new seismic velocity model, (2) Map subsurface structures using seismic tomography, and (3) Explore for fracture zones using shear wave splitting analysis. As compared to seismographs installed on the surface, borehole seismometers detect smaller and more numerous microearthquake signals. The sensitivity and location of the borehole sensors in the VORiSA array are designed to detect these weak signals. The array has a total aperture of 17 km with station spacing at 5 - 10 km. The seismometers are housed in IESE model S21g-2.0, two Hz, 3-component borehole sondes. Sensor depths range from 107 - 121 m. The data acquisition system at each stand-alone station consists of a Reftek 130-01, 6-channel, 24 bit data logger which records at 250 samples per second. The power source is a deep cycle battery with solar recharge. Local temperatures reach extremes of 0° to 50°C, so the battery and recorder are contained in a specially designed underground vault. The vault also provides security in the remote and sparsely populated volcanic field. Recording began on 31 March 2012. An average of one earthquake every three days suggests that currently this is not a highly seismic area. However

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Geomorphological Approach for Regional Zoning In The Merapi Volcanic Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Langgeng Wahyu Santosa

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Geomorphologial approach can be used as the basic for identifying and analyzing the natural resources potentials, especially in volcanic landscape. Based on its geomorphology, Merapi volcanic landscape can be divided into 5 morphological units, i.e.: volcanic cone, volcanic slope, volcanic foot, volcanic foot plain, and fluvio-volcanic plain. Each of these morphological units has specific characteristic and natural resources potential. Based on the condition of geomorphology, the regional zoning can be compiled to support the land use planning and to maintain the conservation of environmental function in the Merapi Volcanic area.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.

2017-11-01

Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.

Transition of neogene arc volcanism in central-western Hokkaido, viewed from K-Ar ages, style of volcanic activity, and bulk rock chemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hirose, Wataru; Iwasaki, Miyuki; Nakagawa, Mitsuhiro [Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan)

2000-02-01

Spatial and temporal variations in late Cenozoic volcanism of southwestern Hokkaido at the northern end of NE-Japan arc have been clarified by 261 K-Ar and 76 FT ages including 49 newly determined K-Ar ages, volcanic stratigraphy, physical volcanology and whole-rock geochemistry. Arc volcanism characterized by rocks with low-Ti and Nb, and by across-arc increase in K{sub 2}O content in these rocks has continued at least since 12 Ma. Based on volcanic stratigraphy, physical volcanology and whole-rock geochemistry, volcanism after 12 Ma can be subdivided into 4 stages, 12-5, 5-1.7, and 1.7-0 Ma. The volcanism from 12 Ma to 5 Ma extended northward widely compared with distribution of Quaternary arc volcanism (1.7-0 Ma). This suggests that the arc trench junction between Kuril and NE-Japan arc's trenches was located about 100 km northward from the present position. Since around 5 Ma until 1.7 Ma, different type of volcanism under local extension field, characterized by a group of monogenetic volcanoes of alkali basalt and shield volcanoes of calc-alkaline andesite, had occurred at northern end of the volcanic region (Takikawa-Mashike region). During and after this volcanism, the northern edge of arc volcanism in the area has migrated southward. This suggests that the trench junction has migrated about 100 km southward since {approx}5 Ma. The quaternary arc volcanism (1.7-0 Ma) has been restricted at the southern part of the region. The volcanism since 12 Ma might be influenced by oblique subduction of Pacific plate beneath Kuril arc, resulting in the formation of local back arc basin at the junction and to southward migration of the trench junction. (author)

Volcanic instability: the effects of internal pressurisation and consideration of rock mass properties

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, M.; Petford, N.; Bromhead, E. N.

2003-04-01

Since the events at mount St Helens during May 1980, there has been considerable attention focused on the mechanisms and consequences of volcanic edifice collapse. As a result catastrophic edifice failure is now recognised as perhaps the most socially devastating natural disaster associated with volcanic activity. The tendency of volcanic edifices to fail appears ubiquitous behaviour, and a number of failure precursors and more importantly triggers have been suggested, of which magmagenic (e.g. thermal and mechanical pore pressure increases) and seismogenic (e.g. tectonic or volcanic earthquakes) are common. Despite the increased interest in this field, large-scale, deep seated catastrophic edifice failure has still only be successfully modelled in the most extreme of cases, which does not account for the volume of field evidence of edifice collapse. One possible reason for this is the way that pore pressures are considered. For pore fluids that are entering the system from the surface (e.g. rain water) there is a set volume and therefore a set pressure that the system can accommodate, as once the edifice becomes saturated, any new fluids to fall on the surface of the edifice simply run off. If we consider internal pore fluid pressurisation from magmatic gasses, then the pressurising fluid is already in the system and the only limit to how much pressure can be accommodated is the strength of the edifice itself. The failure to fully consider the strength and deformability of a rock mass compared to an intact laboratory sample of a volcanic rock may result in a misleading assessment of edifice strength. An intact laboratory sample of basalt may yield a strength of 100--350 MPa (from uniaxial compression tests), a volcanic edifice however is not an intact rock, and is cut through by many discontinuities, including; faults, fractures and layering from discrete lava flows. A better approximation of the true strength can be determined from the rock mass rating (RMR

Slab dehydration in Cascadia and its relationship to volcanism, seismicity, and non-volcanic tremor

Science.gov (United States)

Delph, J. R.; Levander, A.; Niu, F.

2017-12-01

The characteristics of subduction beneath the Pacific Northwest (Cascadia) are variable along strike, leading to the segmentation of Cascadia into 3 general zones: Klamath, Siletzia, and Wrangelia. These zones show marked differences in tremor density, earthquake density, seismicity rates, and the locus and amount of volcanism in the subduction-related volcanic arc. To better understand what controls these variations, we have constructed a 3D shear-wave velocity model of the upper 80 km along the Cascadia margin from the joint inversion of CCP-derived receiver functions and ambient noise surface wave data using 900 temporary and permanent broadband seismic stations. With this model, we can investigate variations in the seismic structure of the downgoing oceanic lithosphere and overlying mantle wedge, the character of the crust-mantle transition beneath the volcanic arc, and local to regional variations in crustal structure. From these results, we infer the presence and distribution of fluids released from the subducting slab and how they affect the seismic structure of the overriding lithosphere. In the Klamath and Wrangelia zones, high seismicity rates in the subducting plate and high tremor density correlate with low shear velocities in the overriding plate's forearc and relatively little arc volcanism. While the cause of tremor is debated, intermediate depth earthquakes are generally thought to be due to metamorphic dehydration reactions resulting from the dewatering of the downgoing slab. Thus, the seismic characteristics of these zones combined with rather sparse arc volcanism may indicate that the slab has largely dewatered by the time it reaches sub-arc depths. Some of the water released during earthquakes (and possibly tremor) may percolate into the overriding plate, leading to slow seismic velocities in the forearc. In contrast, Siletzia shows relatively low seismicity rates and tremor density, with relatively higher shear velocities in the forearc

Sediment transport in headwaters of a volcanic catchment—Kamchatka Peninsula case study

Science.gov (United States)

Chalov, Sergey R.; Tsyplenkov, Anatolii S.; Pietron, Jan; Chalova, Aleksandra S.; Shkolnyi, Danila I.; Jarsjö, Jerker; Maerker, Michael

2017-09-01

Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring causes that the governing processes and patterns in these areas are rarely well understood. In this study, spatiotemporal water discharge and sediment transport from upstream sources was investigated in one of the numerous headwater catchments located in the lahar valleys of the Kamchatka Peninsula Sukhaya Elizovskaya River near Avachinskii and Koryakskii volcanoes. Three different subcatchments and corresponding channel types (wandering rivers within lahar valleys, mountain rivers within volcanic slopes and rivers within submountain terrains) were identified in the studied area. Our measurements from different periods of observations between years 2012-2014 showed that the studied catchment was characterized by extreme diurnal fluctuation of water discharges and sediment loads that were influenced by snowmelt patterns and high infiltration rates of the easily erodible lahar deposits. The highest recorded sediment loads were up to 9•104 mg/L which was related to an increase of two orders of magnitude within a one day of observations. Additionally, to get a quantitative estimate of the spatial distribution of the eroded material in the volcanic substrates we applied an empirical soil erosion and sediment yield model-modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE). The modeling results showed that even if the applications of the universal erosion model to different non-agricultural areas (e.g., volcanic catchments) can lead to irrelevant results, the MUSLE model delivered might be acceptable for non-lahar areas of the studied volcanic catchment. Overall the results of our study increase our understanding of the hydrology and associated sediment transport for prediction of risk management within headwater volcanic catchments.

Seismological evidence for a sub-volcanic arc mantle wedge beneath the Denali volcanic gap, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D.E.; Pasyanos, M.E.

2002-01-01

Arc volcanism in Alaska is strongly correlated with the 100 km depth contour of the western Aluetian Wadati-Benioff zone. Above the eastern portion of the Wadati-Benioff zone however, there is a distinct lack of volcanism (the Denali volcanic gap). We observe high Poisson's ratio values (0.29-0.33) over the entire length of the Alaskan subduction zone mantle wedge based on regional variations of Pn and Sn velocities. High Poisson's ratios at this depth (40-70 km), adjacent to the subducting slab, are attributed to melting of mantle-wedge peridotites, caused by fluids liberated from the subducting oceanic crust and sediments. Observations of high values of Poisson's ratio, beneath the Denali volcanic gap suggest that the mantle wedge contains melted material that is unable to reach the surface. We suggest that its inability to migrate through the overlying crust is due to increased compression in the crust at the northern apex of the curved Denali fault.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heggie, Travis W

2009-09-01

Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Volcanic Gases and Hot Spring Water to Evaluate the Volcanic Activity of the Mt. Baekdusan

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, S. H.; Lee, S.; Chang, C.

2017-12-01

This study performed the analysis on the volcanic gases and hot spring waters from the Julong hot spring at Mt. Baekdu, also known as Changbaishan on the North Korea(DPRK)-China border, during the period from July 2015 to August 2016. Also, we confirmed the errors that HCO3- concentrations of hot spring waters in the previous study (Lee et al. 2014) and tried to improve the problem. Dissolved CO2 in hot spring waters was analyzed using gas chromatograph in Lee et al.(2014). Improving this, from 2015, we used TOC-IC to analysis dissolved CO2. Also, we analyzed the Na2CO3 standard solutions of different concentrations using GC, and confirmed the correlation between the analytical concentrations and the real concentrations. However, because the analytical results of the Julong hot spring water were in discord with the estimated values based on this correlation, we can't estimate the HCO3-concentrations of 2014 samples. During the period of study, CO2/CH4 ratios in volcanic gases are gradually decreased, and this can be interpreted in two different ways. The first interpretation is that the conditions inside the volcanic edifice are changing into more reduction condition, and carbon in volcanic gases become more favorable to distribute into CH4 or CO than CO2. The second interpretation is that the interaction between volcanic gases and water becomes greater than past, and the concentrations of CO2which have much higher solubility in water decreased, relatively. In general, the effect of scrubbing of volcanic gas is strengthened during the quiet periods of volcanic activity rather than active periods. Meanwhile, the analysis of hot spring waters was done on the anion of acidic gases species, the major cations, and some trace elements (As, Cd, Re).This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-3060.

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

2016-02-01

During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Timing and compositional evolution of Late Pleistocene to Holocene volcanism within the Harrat Rahat volcanic field, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Stelten, M. E.; Downs, D. T.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Harrat Rahat is one of the largest ( 20,000 km2) of 15 active Cenozoic volcanic fields that stretch 3,000 km along the western Arabian Peninsula from Yemen to Syria. The Harrat Rahat volcanic field is 310 km long (N-S) by 75 km wide (E-W), and is dominated by alkalic basalts with minor hawaiite, mugearite, benmoreite, and trachyte eruptives. The timing of volcanism within greater Harrat Rahat is poorly constrained, but field relations and geochronology indicate that northern Harrat Rahat hosted the most recent eruptions. To better constrain the timing and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat during this recent phase, we present 743 geochemical analyses, 144 40Ar/39Ar ages, and 9 36Cl exposure ages for volcanic strata from northernmost Harrat Rahat. These data demonstrate that volcanism has been ongoing from at least 1.2 Ma to the present, with the most recent eruption known from historical accounts at 1256 CE. Basalt has erupted persistently from 1.2 Ma to the present, but more evolved volcanism has been episodic. Benmoreite erupted at 1.1 Ma and between 550 to 400 ka. Trachytic volcanism has only occurred over the past 150 ka, with the most recent eruption at 5 ka. Aside from the well-documented basaltic eruption at 1256 CE, prior workers interpreted 6 additional basaltic eruptions during the Holocene. However, our 36Cl exposure ages demonstrate that these erupted between 60 to 13 ka. Interestingly, in the northern part of our field area, where the spatial density of volcanic vents is low, young volcanism (<150 ka) is dominated by basaltic eruptions. Conversely, young volcanism in the southern part of our field area, where volcanic vent density is high, is dominated by trachyte. This observation is consistent with a process wherein the time-integrated effects of basaltic influx into the crust in the south produced a mafic intrusive complex, through which younger basaltic magmas cannot ascend. Instead, these magmas stall and produce trachyte, likely through

Mud volcanism of South-Caspian depression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aliyev, A.A.

2002-01-01

Full text : South-Caspian depression is presented by area of large warping with thick (more than 25 km) sedimentary series and with wide development of mud volcanism. This depression is unique according to its number of mud volcanoes and intensity of their eruptions. There are about 400 mud volcanoes in this area, which is more than than a half of all volcanoes of the planet. Among them - 220 are continental, more 170 are marine, defined by different methods in the South-Caspian aquatorium. As a result of mudvolcanic activity islands, banks, shoals and underwater ridges are formed in marine conditions. Depths of underwater volcanoes vary from few meters to 900 m as the height of cones are different too. Marine mud volcanoes in geological history of Caspian sea evolution and in its recent history had and important significance. Activity of mud volcanoes in sea conditions lead to the formation of positive elements of relief. Products of ejection take part in the formation of microrelief of surrounding areas of sea bottom influence upon its dynamics and composition of bottom sediments. The carried out comparative analysis of mud volcanism manifestation both onshore and offshore showed the basic differences and similarities in morphology of volcanoes and geology-geochemical peculiarities of eruption products. New data on tectonics of mud volcanism development has been obtained over recent years. Mud volcanoes of South-Caspian depression are studied for assessment and oil-gas content of deep-seated deposits. Geochemical method of search of oil and gas deposits in mudvolcanic areas had been worked out.

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2014-01-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.

2014-10-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

The Ngorongoro Volcanic Highland and its relationships to volcanic deposits at Olduvai Gorge and East African Rift volcanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollel, Godwin F; Swisher, Carl C

2012-08-01

The Ngorongoro Volcanic Highland (NVH), situated adjacent and to the east of Olduvai Gorge in northern Tanzania, is the source of the immense quantities of lava, ignimbrite, air fall ash, and volcaniclastic debris that occur interbedded in the Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary deposits in the Laetoli and Olduvai areas. These volcanics have proven crucial to unraveling stratigraphic correlations, the age of these successions, the archaeological and paleontological remains, as well as the source materials from which the bulk of the stone tools were manufactured. The NVH towers some 2,000 m above the Olduvai and Laetoli landscapes, affecting local climate, run-off, and providing varying elevation - climate controlled ecosystem, habitats, and riparian corridors extending into the Olduvai and Laetoli lowlands. The NVH also plays a crucial role in addressing the genesis and history of East African Rift (EAR) magmatism in northern Tanzania. In this contribution, we provide age and petrochemical compositions of the major NVH centers: Lemagurut, basalt to benmorite, 2.4-2.2 Ma; Satiman, tephrite to phonolite, 4.6-3.5 Ma; Oldeani, basalt to trachyandesite, 1.6-1.5 Ma; Ngorongoro, basalt to rhyolite, 2.3-2.0 Ma; Olmoti, basalt to trachyte, 2.0-1.8 Ma; Embagai, nephelinite to phonolite, 1.2-0.6 Ma; and Engelosin, phonolite, 3-2.7 Ma. We then discuss how these correlate in time and composition with volcanics preserved at Olduvai Gorge. Finally, we place this into context with our current understanding as to the eruptive history of the NVH and relationship to East African Rift volcanism. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

2015-01-01

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Martian volcanism: A review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, M.H.

1987-01-01

Martian volcanism is reviewed. It is emphasized that lava plains constitute the major type of effusive flow, and can be differentiated by morphologic characteristics. Shield volcanoes, domes, and patera constitute the major constructional landforms, and recent work has suggested that explosive activity and resulting pyroclastic deposits may have been involved with formation of some of the small shields. Analysis of morphology, presumed composition, and spectroscopic data all indicate that Martian volcanism was dominantly basaltic in composition

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

Science.gov (United States)

Stothers, Richard B.

1989-01-01

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

2013-04-01

In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese