WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcanic hazard predictions

  1. Volcanic hazards to airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

    2009-01-01

    Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies

  2. Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

    1996-01-01

    An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

  3. Volcanic hazards in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, William I.; Bluth, Gregg J.S.; Carr, Michael J.; Ewert, John W.; Patino, Lina C.; Vallance, James W.

    2006-01-01

    This volume is a sampling of current scientific work about volcanoes in Central America with specific application to hazards. The papers reflect a variety of international and interdisciplinary collaborations and employ new methods. The book will be of interest to a broad cross section of scientists, especially volcanologists. The volume also will interest students who aspire to work in the field of volcano hazards mitigation or who may want to work in one of Earth’s most volcanically active areas.

  4. Volcanic hazards and public response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Donald W.

    1988-05-01

    Although scientific understanding of volcanoes is advancing, eruptions continue to take a substantial toll of life and property. Some of these losses could be reduced by better advance preparation, more effective flow of information between scientists and public officials, and better understanding of volcanic behavior by all segments of the public. The greatest losses generally occur at volcanoes that erupt infrequently where people are not accustomed to dealing with them. Scientists sometimes tend to feel that the blame for poor decisions in emergency management lies chiefly with officials or journalists because of their failure to understand the threat. However, the underlying problem embraces a set of more complex issues comprising three pervasive factors. The first factor is the volcano: signals given by restless volcanoes are often ambiguous and difficult to interpret, especially at long-quiescent volcanoes. The second factor is people: people confront hazardous volcanoes in widely divergent ways, and many have difficulty in dealing with the uncertainties inherent in volcanic unrest. The third factor is the scientists: volcanologists correctly place their highest priority on monitoring and hazard assessment, but they sometimes fail to explain clearly their conclusions to responsible officials and the public, which may lead to inadequate public response. Of all groups in society, volcanologists have the clearest understanding of the hazards and vagaries of volcanic activity; they thereby assume an ethical obligation to convey effectively their knowledge to benefit all of society. If society resists, their obligation nevertheless remains. They must use the same ingenuity and creativity in dealing with information for the public that they use in solving scientific problems. When this falls short, even excellent scientific results may be nullified.

  5. Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

  6. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

  7. Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R. I.

    2009-12-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant

  8. Coping with volcanic hazards; a global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.I.

    1990-01-01

    Compared to some other natural hazards-such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides- volcanic hazards strike infrequently. However, in populated areas , even very small eruptions can wreak havoc and cause widespread devastation. For example, the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia ejected only about 3 percent of the volume of ash produced during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Yet, the mudflows triggered by this tiny eruption killed more than 25,000 people.

  9. Volcanic air pollution hazards in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

    2017-04-20

    Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other air pollutants emitted from Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i react with oxygen, atmospheric moisture, and sunlight to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog can negatively affect human health and agriculture, and acid rain can contaminate household water supplies by leaching metals from building and plumbing materials in rooftop rainwater-catchment systems. U.S. Geological Survey scientists, along with health professionals and local government officials are working together to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

  10. Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

  11. Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-10-15

    This publication provides comprehensive and updated guidance for site evaluation in relation to volcanic hazards. It includes recommendations on assessing the volcanic hazards at a nuclear installation site, in order to identify and characterize, in a comprehensive manner, all potentially hazardous phenomena that may be associated with future volcanic events. It describes how some of these volcanic phenomena may affect the acceptability of the selected site, resulting in exclusion of a site or determining the corresponding design basis parameters for the installation. This Safety Guide is applicable to both existing and new sites, and a graded approach is recommended to cater for all types of nuclear installations. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of volcanic hazard assessment; 3. General recommendations; 4. Necessary information and investigations (database); 5. Screening of volcanic hazards; 6. Site specific volcanic hazard assessment; 7. Nuclear installations other than nuclear power plants; 8. Monitoring and preparation for response; 9. Management system for volcanic hazard assessment; Annex I: Volcanic hazard scenarios; Annex II: Worldwide sources of information.

  12. Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

    2016-04-01

    Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

  13. Volcanic hazards of North Island, New Zealand-overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, R. R.; Nairn, I. A.; Neall, V. E.

    1985-10-01

    In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km 3 are credible.

  14. Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

  15. Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit

  16. Assessment of Muria geochemistry evolution and related to volcanic hazard to NPP site at Muria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basuki Wibowo; June Mellawati; Heni Susiati

    2011-01-01

    Study of geochemistry evolution aspect in Mt. Muria cycle to predict the level of volcanic hazards posed in the future on Muria nuclear power plant site was conducted. The purpose of the study was to determine the Muria geochemistry condition, tectonic patterns and to predict the level of volcanic hazard in the future on Muria nuclear power plant sites. The methodology used is the collection of secondary data on the complex geochemical conditions Muria volcanic in their life cycle, perform correlation geochemical cycle in its path towards conditions that most likely experienced tectonic, volcanic, and interpretation of the hazard posed. The study shows that geochemical conditions in Muria Volcano complex composed of potassium, low-yield product predicted high-temperature molten magma (decompression) and high potassium levels (compression). Pattern of tectonic decompression geochemical conditions associated with low potassium in Muria old, while the pattern of tectonic compression geochemical conditions associated with high potassium in young Muria. The level of volcanic hazard in the future indicated by the nature of non capable of Mt. Muria. (author)

  17. Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

    1989-01-01

    Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

  18. Screening criteria of volcanic hazards aspect in the NPP site evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Siwhan

    2013-01-01

    Studies have been conducted on the completeness of regulation in Indonesia particularly on volcanic hazards aspects in the evaluation of nuclear power plant site. Volcanic hazard aspect needed to identify potential external hazards that may endanger the safety of the operation of nuclear power plants. There are four stages for evaluating volcanic hazards, which are initial assessment, characterization sources of volcanic activity in the future, screening volcanic hazards and assessment of capable volcanic hazards. This paper discuss the third stage of the general evaluation which is the screening procedure of volcanic hazards. BAPETEN Chairman Regulation No. 2 Year of 2008 has only one screening criteria for missile volcanic phenomena, so it required screening criteria for other hazard phenomena that are pyroclastic flow density; lava flows; avalanche debris materials; lava; opening hole new eruptions, volcano missile; tsunamis; ground deformation; and hydrothermal system and ground water anomaly. (author)

  19. Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

  20. Volcanic hazards of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and adjacent areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hackett, W.R.; Smith, R.P.

    1994-12-01

    Potential volcanic hazards are assessed, and hazard zone maps are developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and adjacent areas. The basis of the hazards assessment and mapping is the past volcanic history of the INEL region, and the apparent similarity of INEL volcanism with equivalent, well-studied phenomena in other regions of active volcanism, particularly Hawaii and Iceland. The most significant hazards to INEL facilities are associated with basaltic volcanism, chiefly lava flows, which move slowly and mainly threaten property by inundation or burning. Related hazards are volcanic gases and tephra, and ground disturbance associated with the ascent of magma under the volcanic zones. Several volcanic zones are identified in the INEL area. These zones contain most of the volcanic vents and fissures of the region and are inferred to be the most probable sites of future INEL volcanism. Volcanic-recurrence estimates are given for each of the volcanic zones based on geochronology of the lavas, together with the results of field and petrographic investigations concerning the cogenetic relationships of INEL volcanic deposits and associated magma intrusion. Annual probabilities of basaltic volcanism within the INEL volcanic zones range from 6.2 x 10 -5 per year (average 16,000-year interval between eruptions) for the axial volcanic zone near the southern INEL boundary and the Arco volcanic-rift zone near the western INEL boundary, to 1 x 10 -5 per year (average 100,000-year interval between eruptions) for the Howe-East Butte volcanic rift zone, a geologically old and poorly defined feature of the central portion of INEL. Three volcanic hazard zone maps are developed for the INEL area: lava flow hazard zones, a tephra (volcanic ash) and gas hazard zone, and a ground-deformation hazard zone. The maps are useful in land-use planning, site selection, and safety analysis

  1. Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

    2015-04-01

    Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

  2. Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2015-05-01

    The idea of a volcanic field `boundary' is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a `hard' boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the `gaps' between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

  3. The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Arlin J.

    1999-01-01

    The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

  4. Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

    1990-07-01

    Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

  5. Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

  6. The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinji Takarada

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

  7. Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan M. Lindsay

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick ‘em Jenny and Ronde/Caille, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past ~10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that

  8. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

  9. Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, David P.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McNutt, Stephen R.

    2017-01-01

    The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO2

  10. UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

  11. Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations: Methods and Examples in Site Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    To provide guidance on the protection of nuclear installations against the effects of volcanoes, the IAEA published in 2012 IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. SSG-21 addresses hazards relating to volcanic phenomena, and provides recommendations and general guidance for evaluation of these hazards. Unlike seismic hazard assessments, models for volcanic hazard assessment have not undergone decades of review, evaluation and testing for suitability in evaluating hazards at proposed nuclear installations. Currently in volcanology, scientific developments and detailed methodologies to model volcanic phenomena are evolving rapidly.This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in SSG-21. Although SSG-21 develops a logical framework for conducting a volcanic hazard assessment, this publication demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations in SSG-21 through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations

  12. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  13. Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

    2015-04-01

    Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

  14. Improved prediction and tracking of volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Larry G.; Webley, Peter

    2009-01-01

    During the past 30??years, more than 100 airplanes have inadvertently flown through clouds of volcanic ash from erupting volcanoes. Such encounters have caused millions of dollars in damage to the aircraft and have endangered the lives of tens of thousands of passengers. In a few severe cases, total engine failure resulted when ash was ingested into turbines and coating turbine blades. These incidents have prompted the establishment of cooperative efforts by the International Civil Aviation Organization and the volcanological community to provide rapid notification of eruptive activity, and to monitor and forecast the trajectories of ash clouds so that they can be avoided by air traffic. Ash-cloud properties such as plume height, ash concentration, and three-dimensional ash distribution have been monitored through non-conventional remote sensing techniques that are under active development. Forecasting the trajectories of ash clouds has required the development of volcanic ash transport and dispersion models that can calculate the path of an ash cloud over the scale of a continent or a hemisphere. Volcanological inputs to these models, such as plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, ash distribution with altitude, and grain-size distribution, must be assigned in real time during an event, often with limited observations. Databases and protocols are currently being developed that allow for rapid assignment of such source parameters. In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  15. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2017-07-01

    Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  16. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Becerril

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  17. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  18. Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, L.; Glicken, H.; Ui, T.

    1987-01-01

    Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of

  19. Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

    2016-02-01

    During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

  20. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

    1983-03-01

    Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

  1. Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

  2. Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

    2010-09-01

    The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

  3. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  4. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Wohletz, K.H.; Vaniman, D.T.; Gladney, E.; Bower, N.

    1986-01-01

    Volcanic hazard investigations during FY 1984 focused on five topics: the emplacement mechanism of shallow basalt intrusions, geochemical trends through time for volcanic fields of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone, the possibility of bimodal basalt-rhyolite volcanism, the age and process of enrichment for incompatible elements in young basalts of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region, and the possibility of hydrovolcanic activity. The stress regime of Yucca Mountain may favor formation of shallow basalt intrusions. However, combined field and drill-hole studies suggest shallow basalt intrusions are rare in the geologic record of the southern Great Basin. The geochemical patterns of basaltic volcanism through time in the NTS region provide no evidence for evolution toward a large-volume volcanic field or increases in future rates of volcanism. Existing data are consistent with a declining volcanic system comparable to the late stages of the southern Death Valley volcanic field. The hazards of bimodal volcanism in this area are judged to be low. The source of a 6-Myr pumice discovered in alluvial deposits of Crater Flat has not been found. Geochemical studies show that the enrichment of trace elements in the younger rift basalts must be related to an enrichment of their mantle source rocks. This geochemical enrichment event, which may have been metasomatic alteration, predates the basalts of the silicic episode and is, therefore, not a young event. Studies of crater dimensions of hydrovolcanic landforms indicate that the worst case scenario (exhumation of a repository at Yucca Mountain by hydrovolcanic explosions) is unlikely. Theoretical models of melt-water vapor explosions, particularly the thermal detonation model, suggest hydrovolcanic explosion are possible at Yucca Mountain. 80 refs., 21 figs., 5 tabs

  5. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  6. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-07-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

  7. A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

    2017-12-01

    Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

  8. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

    2017-06-01

    We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  9. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  10. Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

    2014-12-01

    Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

  11. Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

  12. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

    2014-05-01

    The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  13. UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F.V. Perry

    2005-01-01

    Basaltic volcanism poses a potential hazard to the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository because multiple episodes of basaltic volcanism have occurred in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) in the past 11 Ma. Intervals between eruptive episodes average about 1 Ma. Three episodes have occurred in the Quaternary at approximately 1.1 Ma (5 volcanoes), 350 ka (2 volcanoes), and 80 ka (1 volcano). Because Yucca Mountain lies within the Basin and Range Province, a significant portion of the pre-Quaternary volcanic history of the YMR may be buried in alluvial-filled basins. An exceptionally high-resolution aeromagnetic survey and subsequent drilling program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began in 2004 and is gathering data that will enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene and Miocene volcanism in the region (Figure 1). DOE has convened a ten-member expert panel of earth scientists that will use the information gathered to update probabilistic volcanic hazard estimates originally obtained by expert elicitation in 1996. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-trending ridges of eastward-tilted fault blocks that are bounded by north to northeast-trending normal faults. Topographic basins filled with up to 500 m of alluvium surround it to the east, south and west. In the past several decades, nearly 50 holes have been drilled in these basins, mainly for Yucca Mountain Project Site Characterization and the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program. Several of these drill holes have penetrated relatively deeply buried (300-400 m) Miocene basalt; a Pliocene basalt dated at 3.8 Ma was encountered at a relatively shallow depth (100 m) in the northern Amargosa Desert (Anomaly B in Figure 1). The current drilling program is the first to specifically target and characterize buried basalt. Based on the new aeromagnetic survey and previous air and ground magnetic surveys (Connor et al. 2000; O'Leary et al. 2002), at least eight drill

  14. Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (concern on epidemiological monitoring. In 2011 the volcanic complex Puyehue - Cordon Caulle eruption produced ashfall through plumes that reached densely populated cities like San Carlos de Bariloche and Buenos Aires. Farther away in South Africa and New Zealand ash plumes forced airlines to cancel local and international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population

  15. Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2016-04-01

    The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

  16. A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

    2013-04-01

    Approximately 10% of the world's population lives within 100 km of historically active volcanoes. Consequently, considerable critical infrastructure is at risk of being affected by volcanic eruptions, where critical infrastructure includes: electricity and wastewater networks; water supply systems; transport routes; communications; and buildings. Appropriate risk management strategies are required to minimise the risk to infrastructure, which necessitates detailed understanding of both volcanic hazards and infrastructure parameters and vulnerabilities. To address this, we are developing a database of the physical impacts and vulnerability of critical infrastructure observed during/following historic eruptions, placed in the context of event-specific volcanic hazard and infrastructure parameters. Our database considers: volcanic hazard parameters for each case study eruption (tephra thickness, dynamic pressure of PDCs, etc.); inventory of infrastructure elements present within the study area (geographical extent, age, etc.); the type and number of impacts and disruption caused to particular infrastructure sectors; and the quantified assessment of the vulnerability of built environments. Data have been compiled from a wide range of literature, focussing in particular on impact assessment studies which document in detail the damage sustained by critical infrastructure during a given eruption. We are creating a new vulnerability ranking to quantify the vulnerability of built environments affected by volcanic eruptions. The ranking is based upon a range of physical impacts and service disruption criteria, and is assigned to each case study. This ranking will permit comparison of vulnerabilities between case studies as well as indicate expected vulnerability during future eruptions. We are also developing hazard intensity thresholds indicating when specific damage states are expected for different critical infrastructure sectors. Finally, we have developed a data quality

  17. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya. D. Muraviev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

  18. Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-12-01

    During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

  19. Hazard Potential of Volcanic Flank Collapses Raised by New Megatsunami Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, R. S.; Winckler, G.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Hipólito, A.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Large-scale gravitational flank collapses of steep volcanic islands are hypothetically capable of triggering megatsunamis with highly catastrophic effects. Yet evidence for the existence and impact of collapsed-triggered megatsunamis and their run-up heights remains scarce and/or is highly contentious. Therefore a considerable debate still exists over the potential magnitude of collapse-triggered tsunamis and their inherent hazard. In particular, doubts still remain whether or not large-scale flank failures typically generate enough volume flux to result in megatsunamis, or alternatively operate by slow-moving or multiple smaller episodic failures with much lower tsunamigenic potential. Here we show that one of the tallest and most active oceanic volcanoes on Earth - Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands - collapsed catastrophically and triggered a megatsunami with devastating near-field effects ~73,000 years ago. Our deductions are based on the recent discovery and cosmogenic 3He dating of tsunamigenic deposits - comprising fields of stranded megaclasts, chaotic conglomerates, and sand sheets - found on the adjacent Santiago Island, which attest to the impact of this megatsunami and document wave run-up heights exceeding 270 m. The evidence reported here implies that Fogo's flank failure involved at least one sudden and voluminous event that resulted in a megatsunami, in contrast to what has been suggested before. Our work thus provides another line of evidence that large-scale flank failures at steep volcanic islands may indeed happen catastrophically and are capable of triggering tsunamis of enormous height and energy. This new line of evidence therefore reinforces the hazard potential of volcanic island collapses and stands as a warning that such hazard should not be underestimated, particularly in areas where volcanic island edifices are close to other islands or to highly populated continental margins.

  20. Volcanic stratigraphy and geochemistry of the Soufrière Volcanic Centre, Saint Lucia with implications for volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Jan M.; Trumbull, Robert B.; Schmitt, Axel K.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Shane, Phil A.; Howe, Tracy M.

    2013-05-01

    The Soufrière Volcanic Complex (SVC), Saint Lucia, represents one of the largest silicic centres in the Lesser Antilles arc. It comprises extensive pumiceous pyroclastic flow deposits, lava flows as well as Peléan-style domes and dome collapse block-and-ash-flow deposits. These deposits occur within and around the Qualibou Depression, a ~ 10-km diameter wide sector collapse structure. To date, vent locations for SVC pyroclastic deposits and their relationship to the sector collapse have been unclear because of limited stratigraphic correlation and few radiometric ages. In this study we reconstruct the geologic history of the SVC in light of new and recently published (U-Th)/He, U-Th and U-Pb zircon chronostratigraphic data, aided by mineralogical and geochemical correlation. Compositionally, SVC deposits are monotonous medium-K, calc-alkaline rocks with 61.6 to 67.7 wt.% SiO2 and display similar trace element abundances. Combined U-Th and (U-Th)/He zircon dating together with 14C ages and mineral fingerprinting reveals significant explosive eruptions at 640, 515, 265, 104, 60 and 40 ka (producing deposits previously grouped together as the "Choiseul" unit) and at 20 ka (Belfond unit). The mineralogically and geochemically distinct Belfond unit is a large, valley-filling pumiceous pyroclastic flow deposit distributed to the north, northeast, south and southeast of the Qualibou Depression that was probably deposited during a single plinian eruption. The unit previously referred to as ‘Choiseul tuff' is much less well defined. The typical Choiseul unit comprises a series of yellowish-white, crystal-poor, non-welded pumiceous pyroclastic deposits cropping out to the north and southeast of the Qualibou depression; however its age is poorly constrained. A number of other units previously mapped as Choiseul can be distinguished based on age, and in some cases mineral and whole rock chemistry. Pyroclastic deposits at Micoud (640 ± 19 ka), Bellevue (264 ± 8 ka), Anse

  1. The Global Framework for Providing Information about Volcanic-Ash Hazards to International Air Navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, R. W.; Guffanti, M.

    2009-12-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) created the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) in 1987 to establish a requirement for international dissemination of information about airborne ash hazards to safe air navigation. The IAVW is a set of operational protocols and guidelines that member countries agree to follow in order to implement a global, multi-faceted program to support the strategy of ash-cloud avoidance. Under the IAVW, the elements of eruption reporting, ash-cloud detecting, and forecasting expected cloud dispersion are coordinated to culminate in warnings sent to air traffic controllers, dispatchers, and pilots about the whereabouts of ash clouds. Nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) established under the IAVW have the responsibility for detecting the presence of ash in the atmosphere, primarily by looking at imagery from civilian meteorological satellites, and providing advisories about the location and movement of ash clouds to aviation meteorological offices and other aviation users. Volcano Observatories also are a vital part of the IAVW, as evidenced by the recent introduction of a universal message format for reporting the status of volcanic activity, including precursory unrest, to aviation users. Since 2003, the IAVW has been overseen by a standing group of scientific, technical, and regulatory experts that assists ICAO in the development of standards and other regulatory material related to volcanic ash. Some specific problems related to the implementation of the IAVW include: the lack of implementation of SIGMET (warning to aircraft in flight) provisions and delayed notifications of volcanic eruptions. Expected future challenges and developments involve the improvement in early notifications of volcanic eruptions, the consolidation of the issuance of SIGMETs, and the possibility of determining a “safe” concentration of volcanic ash.

  2. Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

    2016-12-01

    Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

  3. Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Ceboruco Volcano (21° 7.688 N, 104° 30.773 W) is located in the northwestern part of the Tepic-Zacoalco graben. Its volcanic activity can be divided in four eruptive cycles differentiated by their VEI and chemical variations as well. As a result of andesitic effusive activity, the "paleo-Ceboruco" edifice was constructed during the first cycle. The end of this cycle is defined by a plinian eruption (VEI between 3 and 4) which occurred some 1020 years ago and formed the external caldera. During the second cycle an andesitic dome built up in the interior of the caldera. The dome collapsed and formed the internal caldera. The third cycle is represented by andesitic lava flows which partially cover the northern and south-southwestern part of the edifice. The last cycle is represented by the andesitic lava flows of the nineteenth century located in the southwestern flank of the volcano. Actually, moderate fumarolic activity occurs in the upper part of the volcano showing temperatures ranging between 20° and 120°C. Some volcanic high frequency tremors have also been registered near the edifice. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 1998, where we identify with SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east sides of the Ceboruco volcano. The population inhabiting the area is 70,224 people in 2010, concentrated in 107 localities and growing at an annual rate of 0.37%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by highway, high road, railroad, and the construction of new highway to Puerto Vallarta, which is built in the southeast sector of the volcano and electrical infrastructure that connect the Cajon and Yesca Dams to Guadalajara city. The most important economic activity in the area is agriculture, with crops of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum), corn, and jamaica

  4. Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gunkel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account.

    Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

  5. Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

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    Sea Eun Cho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

  6. Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malheiro, A.

    2006-08-01

    The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

  7. Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggie, Travis W

    2009-09-01

    Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

  8. Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

  9. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  10. Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sobradelo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

  11. Contrasting styles of post-caldera volcanism along the Main Ethiopian Rift: Implications for contemporary volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontijn, Karen; McNamara, Keri; Zafu Tadesse, Amdemichael; Pyle, David M.; Dessalegn, Firawalin; Hutchison, William; Mather, Tamsin A.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

    2018-05-01

    The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER, 7-9°N) is the type example of a magma-assisted continental rift. The rift axis is populated with regularly spaced silicic caldera complexes and central stratovolcanoes, interspersed with large fields of small mafic scoria cones. The recent (latest Pleistocene to Holocene) history of volcanism in the MER is poorly known, and no eruptions have occurred in the living memory of the local population. Assessment of contemporary volcanic hazards and associated risk is primarily based on the study of the most recent eruptive products, typically those emplaced within the last 10-20 ky. We integrate new and published field observations and geochemical data on tephra deposits from the main Late Quaternary volcanic centres in the central MER to assess contemporary volcanic hazards. Most central volcanoes in the MER host large mid-Pleistocene calderas, with typical diameters of 5-15 km, and associated ignimbrites of trachyte and peralkaline rhyolite composition. In contrast, post-caldera activity at most centres comprises eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas as obsidian flows, domes and pumice cones. The frequency and magnitude of events varies between individual volcanoes. Some volcanoes have predominantly erupted obsidian lava flows in their most recent post-caldera stage (Fentale), whereas other have had up to 3 moderate-scale (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions per millennium (Aluto). At some volcanoes we find evidence for multiple large explosive eruptions (Corbetti, Bora-Baricha, Boset-Bericha) which have deposited several centimetres to metres of pumice and ash in currently densely populated regions. This new overview has important implications when assessing the present-day volcanic hazard in this rapidly developing region. Supplementary Table 2 Main Ethiopian Rift outcrop localities with brief description of geology. All coordinates in Latitude - Longitude, WGS84 datum. Sample names (as listed in Supplementary Table 3a) follow outcrop name

  12. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  13. Earth Girl Volcano: An Interactive Casual Game about Complex Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlow, I.

    2017-12-01

    Earth Girl Volcano is an interactive casual strategy game for disaster preparedness. The project is designed for mainstream audiences, particularly for children, as an engaging and fun way to learn about volcano hazards, monitoring, and mitigation strategies. The game is deceptively simple but it provides a toolbox to address practically all volcanic hazards ranging from gas and ash fall to pyroclastic flows, lava and lahars. This presentation shows the basic dynamic to explore the area, assess the risk, choose the best-suited tools and execute a mitigation strategy within the available budget. This game is a real-time simulation of a crowd evacuation that allows players to intervene before and during the disaster.

  14. Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

  15. A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

  16. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

  17. Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirer, Lucio; Petrosino, Paola; Alberico, Ines; Postiglione, Immacolata

    2001-02-01

    Distributions of pyroclastic deposits from the main explosive events at Somma-Vesuvio during the 8,000-year B.P.-A.D. 1906 time-span have been analysed to provide maps of volcanic hazard for long-term eruption forecasting. In order to define hazard ratings, the spatial distributions and loads (kg/m2) exerted by the fall deposits on the roofs of buildings have been considered. A load higher than 300 kg/m2 is defined as destructive. The relationship load/frequency (the latter defined as the number of times that an area has been impacted by the deposition of fall deposits) is considered to be a suitable parameter for differentiating among areas according to hazard rating. Using past fall deposit distributions as the basis for future eruptive scenarios, the total area that could be affected by the products of a future Vesuvio explosive eruption is 1,500 km2. The perivolcanic area (274 km2) has the greatest hazard rating because it could be buried by pyroclastic flow deposits thicker than 0.5 m and up to several tens of metres in thickness. Currently, the perivolcanic area also has the highest risk because of the high exposed value, mainly arising from the high population density.

  18. Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwell, Claire Judith

    2002-01-01

    Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 μm) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 μm fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 μm fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash (∼ 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM 4 concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been closely linked

  19. Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horwell, Claire Judith

    2002-07-01

    Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 {mu}m) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 {mu}m fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 {mu}m fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash ({approx} 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM{sub 4} concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been

  20. ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

    2016-08-01

    Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

  1. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

    2000-01-01

    The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

  2. Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

    2014-05-01

    Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volcano will be presented. Simulations are made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a high resolution digital elevation map of Montserrat. Simulations with an idealised topography have also been examined, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the Tropics. The model was initialised with soundings from representative days of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season. The heated volcanic dome changes the orographic flow response significantly, depending upon the atmospheric conditions and the magnitude of the dome surface temperature anomaly. The flow regime and qualitative characteristic features, such orographic clouds and rainfall patterns, can all change significantly. For example, the orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased dome temperatures. The implications of these changes on the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards, such as lahars, will be discussed.

  3. Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

    CERN Document Server

    Bevilacqua, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

  4. Violent Explosive Eruptions in the Ararat Valley, Armenia and Associated Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliksetian, Khachatur; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Charles; Gevorgyan, Hripsime; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Jrbashyan, Ruben; Ghukasyan, Yura

    2016-04-01

    volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley based on numerical simulations. Our work is important as Ararat Valley host the capital city of Yerevan (population ˜ 1.4 million) and also the currently operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant at Metsamor. References Keskin,2003. GRL 30, 1-4; Neill et al., 2015 Chemical Geology, 403, p. 24-41; Skolbeltsyn et al. 2014. Tectonics 33, 207-221.

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Hazards Outlook

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Prediction Center releases a US Hazards Outlook daily, Monday through Friday. The product highlights regions of anticipated hazardous weather during the...

  6. Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

    2014-10-01

    . Hazard maps were integral to science communication during the crisis, but there is limited international best practice information available on hazard maps as communication devices, as most volcanic hazard mapping literature is concerned with defining hazard zones. We propose that hazard maps are only as good as the communications framework and inter-agency relationships in which they are embedded, and we document in detail the crisis hazard map development process. We distinguish crisis hazard maps from background hazard maps and ashfall prediction maps, illustrating the complementary nature of these three distinct communication mechanisms. We highlight issues that arose and implications for the development of future maps.

  7. Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

    2008-10-01

    The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

  8. Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2010-05-01

    One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

  9. Spatial prediction of landslide hazard using discriminant analysis and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter V. Gorsevski; Paul Gessler; Randy B. Foltz

    2000-01-01

    Environmental attributes relevant for spatial prediction of landslides triggered by rain and snowmelt events were derived from digital elevation model (DEM). Those data in conjunction with statistics and geographic information system (GIS) provided a detailed basis for spatial prediction of landslide hazard. The spatial prediction of landslide hazard in this paper is...

  10. Non-Volcanic release of CO2 in Italy: quantification, conceptual models and gas hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiodini, G.; Cardellini, C.; Caliro, S.; Avino, R.

    2011-12-01

    Central and South Italy are characterized by the presence of many reservoirs naturally recharged by CO2 of deep provenance. In the western sector, the reservoirs feed hundreds of gas emissions at the surface. Many studies in the last years were devoted to (i) elaborating a map of CO2 Earth degassing of the region; (ii) to asses the gas hazard; (iii) to develop methods suitable for the measurement of the gas fluxes from different types of emissions; (iv) to elaborate the conceptual model of Earth degassing and its relation with the seismic activity of the region and (v) to develop physical numerical models of CO2 air dispersion. The main results obtained are: 1) A general, regional map of CO2 Earth degassing in Central Italy has been elaborated. The total flux of CO2 in the area has been estimated in ~ 10 Mt/a which are released to the atmosphere trough numerous dangerous gas emissions or by degassing spring waters (~ 10 % of the CO2 globally estimated to be released by the Earth trough volcanic activity). 2) An on line, open access, georeferenced database of the main CO2 emissions (~ 250) was settled up (http://googas.ov.ingv.it). CO2 flux > 100 t/d characterise 14% of the degassing sites while CO2 fluxes from 100 t/d to 10 t/d have been estimated for about 35% of the gas emissions. 3) The sites of the gas emissions are not suitable for life: the gas causes many accidents to animals and people. In order to mitigate the gas hazard a specific model of CO2 air dispersion has been developed and applied to the main degassing sites. A relevant application regarded Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Apennines, which is the largest natural emission of low temperature CO2 rich gases, from non-volcanic environment, ever measured in the Earth (˜2000 t/d). Under low wind conditions, the gas flows along a narrow natural channel producing a persistent gas river which has killed over a period of time many people and animals. The application of the physical numerical model allowed us to

  11. A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

  12. Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

  13. Precursors predicted by artificial neural networks for mass balance calculations: Quantifying hydrothermal alteration in volcanic rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trépanier, Sylvain; Mathieu, Lucie; Daigneault, Réal; Faure, Stéphane

    2016-04-01

    This study proposes an artificial neural networks-based method for predicting the unaltered (precursor) chemical compositions of hydrothermally altered volcanic rock. The method aims at predicting precursor's major components contents (SiO2, FeOT, MgO, CaO, Na2O, and K2O). The prediction is based on ratios of elements generally immobile during alteration processes; i.e. Zr, TiO2, Al2O3, Y, Nb, Th, and Cr, which are provided as inputs to the neural networks. Multi-layer perceptron neural networks were trained on a large dataset of least-altered volcanic rock samples that document a wide range of volcanic rock types, tectonic settings and ages. The precursors thus predicted are then used to perform mass balance calculations. Various statistics were calculated to validate the predictions of precursors' major components, which indicate that, overall, the predictions are precise and accurate. For example, rank-based correlation coefficients were calculated to compare predicted and analysed values from a least-altered test dataset that had not been used to train the networks. Coefficients over 0.87 were obtained for all components, except for Na2O (0.77), indicating that predictions for alkali might be less performant. Also, predictions are performant for most volcanic rock compositions, except for ultra-K rocks. The proposed method provides an easy and rapid solution to the often difficult task of determining appropriate volcanic precursor compositions to rocks modified by hydrothermal alteration. It is intended for large volcanic rock databases and is most useful, for example, to mineral exploration performed in complex or poorly known volcanic settings. The method is implemented as a simple C++ console program.

  14. Volcanic Hazards Associated with the NE Sector of Tacaná Volcano, Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, S. R.; Saucedo, R.; Macias, J.; Arce, J.; Garcia-Palomo, A.; Mora, J.; Scolamacchia, T.

    2003-12-01

    Tacaná volcano, with a height of 4,030 m above sea level, straddles the southern Mexico/Guatemala border. Last active in 1986, when there was a small phreatic event with a duration of a few days, this volcano presents an impending hazard to over 250,000 people. The NE sector of the volcano reveals the violent volcanic history of Tacaná that may be indicative of a serious potential risk to the area. Its earliest pyroclastic history appears to consist of fall, flow, and surge deposits, together with lavas, that have formed megablocks within a series of old debris avalanche deposits. This sector collapse event is overlain by a sequence of pumice fall and ash flow deposits, of which the youngest, less-altered pumice fall deposit shows a minimum thickness of > 4 m, with a dispersal axis trending toward the NE. A second debris avalanche deposit, separated from the above deposits by a paleosoil, is dominated by megablocks of lava and scoriaceous dome material. The current topography around the northeastern flank of the volcano is determined by a third, and most recent debris avalanche deposit, a thick (> 20 m) sequence of six block and ash flows dated at around 16,000 years BP, each separated by 1-10 cm thick ash cloud surge deposit, together with secondary lahar deposits. These are followed by a at least 4 lava flows that extend 2 km down the flank of the volcano. It appears that the most recent pyroclastic event at Tacaná is also recorded in this sector of the volcano: above the block and ash flows occurs a > 1 m thick ash flow unit that can be seen at least 5 km from the vent. Lastly, the Santa Maria Ash fall deposit, produced in 1902, has capped most of the deposits at Tacaná.

  15. The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. R.

    1998-09-01

    The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

  16. Eruptive dynamics and hazards associated with obsidian bearing ignimbrites of the Geghama Volcanic Highland, Central Armenia: a textural insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Zoe; Manning, Christina J.

    2017-04-01

    The Geghama Volcanic highland in central Armenia is an ideal setting to study the young ( 750-25 ka [1]) volcanism that characterises the Lesser Caucasus region. The volcanism in the area is bimodal in composition: the eastern highlands are dominated by numerous monogenetic scoria cones, whilst the west shows more evolved volcanism centered on two obsidian bearing, polygenetic domes (Hatis and Gutanasar) [2]. Activity at Hatis and Gutanasar is thought to have spanned 550ka-200ka [3] and produced a range of products including obsidian flows, ignimbrites and basaltic scoria cones, consistent with long lived and complex magma storage systems. During a similar time period there is evidence for the presence of hominin groups in the surrounding region [3] and it is likely that at least some of the volcanic activity at Hatis and Gutanasar impacted on their distribution [4]. A better understanding of the eruptive behaviour of these volcanoes during this period could therefore shed light on the effect of volcanic activity on the dispersal of man through this period. Whilst large regional studies have striven to better understand the timing and source of volcanism in Armenia, there have been few detailed studies on single volcanoes. Obsidian is ubiquitous within the volcanic material of both Gutanasar and Hatis as lava flows, dome deposits and within ignimbrites. This study aims to better understand the eruptive history of Gutanasar, with specific focus upon the determination of the petrogenetic history of obsidian lenses observed within the ignimbrite deposits. Identification of these obsidians as the result of welding or in-situ melting will help constrain eruptive volumes and flow thickness, important for the reconstruction of palaeo-volcanic hazards. In order to interpret how this obsidian was deposited, macro textural analysis is combined with micro textural measurements of microlite crystals. Quantitative measurements of microlites in obsidian can provide significant

  17. Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eaton, Alexa; Amigo, Álvaro; Bertin, Daniel; Mastin, Larry G.; Giacosa, Raúl E; González, Jerónimo; Valderrama, Oscar; Fontijn, Karen; Behnke, Sonja A

    2016-01-01

    Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

  18. Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

  19. Deformation in volcanic areas: a numerical approach for their prediction in Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands); Deformaciones en areas volcanicas: una aproximacin numerica para su prediccion en el volcan Teide (Tenerife, Islas Canarias)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charco, M.; Galan del Sastre, P.

    2011-07-01

    Active volcanic areas study comprises both, observation of physical changes in the natural media and the interpretation of such changes. Nowadays, the application of spatial geodetic techniques, such as GPS (Global Positioning System) or InSAR (Interferometry with Synthetic Aperture Radar), for deformation understanding in volcanic areas, revolutionizes our view of this geodetic signals. Deformation of the Earth's surface reflects tectonic, magmatic and hydrothermal processes at depth. In this way, the prediction of volcanic deformation through physical modelling provides a link between the observation and depth interior processes that could be crucial for volcanic hazards assessment. In this work, we develop a numerical model for elastic deformation study. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used for the implementation of the numerical model. FEM allows to take into account different morphology, structural characteristics and the mechanical heterogeneities of the medium. Numerical simulations of deformation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) taking into account different medium hypothesis allow us to conclude that the accuracy of the predictions depends on how well the natural system is described. (Author) 22 refs.

  20. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  1. Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 “bald-earth” topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results.

  2. Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards: Part II. Validation of satellite-derived Volcanic Sulphur Dioxide Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koukouli, MariLiza; Balis, Dimitris; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Clarisse, Lieven; Carboni, Elisa; Hedelt, Pascal; Spinetti, Claudia; Theys, Nicolas; Tampellini, Lucia; Zehner, Claus

    2014-05-01

    The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in the spring of 2010 turned the attention of both the public and the scientific community to the susceptibility of the European airspace to the outflows of large volcanic eruptions. The ash-rich plume from Eyjafjallajökull drifted towards Europe and caused major disruptions of European air traffic for several weeks affecting the everyday life of millions of people and with a strong economic impact. This unparalleled situation revealed limitations in the decision making process due to the lack of information on the tolerance to ash of commercial aircraft engines as well as limitations in the ash monitoring and prediction capabilities. The European Space Agency project Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards, was introduced to facilitate the development of an optimal End-to-End System for Volcanic Ash Plume Monitoring and Prediction. This system is based on comprehensive satellite-derived ash plume and sulphur dioxide [SO2] level estimates, as well as a widespread validation using supplementary satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements. The validation of volcanic SO2 levels extracted from the sensors GOME-2/MetopA and IASI/MetopA are shown here with emphasis on the total column observed right before, during and after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions. Co-located ground-based Brewer Spectrophotometer data extracted from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, WOUDC, were compared to the different satellite estimates. The findings are presented at length, alongside a comprehensive discussion of future scenarios.

  3. GIS-Based emergency and evacuation planning for volcanic hazards in New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, J. W.; Sabel, C. E.; Blumenthal, E.

    2005-01-01

    (reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from CIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity...... in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active...... volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent...

  4. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  5. Introducing Geoscience Students to Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Hazards: The example of Tephra2 on VHub.org

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah M. Courtland

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Tephra2 numerical model for tephra fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions is specifically designed to enable students to probe ideas in model literacy, including code validation and verification, the role of simplifying assumptions, and the concepts of uncertainty and forecasting. This numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials. The VHub.org resource provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2. We present a strategy for using this model to introduce university students to key concepts in the use and evaluation of Tephra2 for probabilistic forecasting of volcanic hazards. Through this critical examination students are encouraged to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models. Although the model and applications are intended for use in both introductory and advanced geoscience courses, they could easily be adapted to work in other disciplines, such as astronomy, physics, computational methods, data analysis, or computer science.

  6. Neotectonics of Graciosa island (Azores: a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of a volcanic area in a complex geodynamic setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Hipólito

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Graciosa is a mid-Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic island that lies in a complex plate boundary between the North American, Eurasian, and Nubian plates. Large fault scarps displace the oldest (Middle Pleistocene volcanic units, but in the younger areas recent volcanism (Holocene to Upper Pleistocene conceals the surface expression of faulting, limiting neotectonic observations. The large displacement accumulated by the older volcanic units when compared with the younger formations suggests a variability of deformation rates and the possibility of alternating periods of higher and lower tectonic deformation rates; this would increase the recurrence interval of surface rupturing earthquakes. Nevertheless, in historical times a few destructive earthquakes affected the island attesting for its seismic hazard. Regarding the structural data, two main fault systems, incompatible with a single stress field, were identified at Graciosa Island. Thus, it is proposed that the region is affected by two alternating stress fields. The stress field #1 corresponds to the regional stress regime proposed by several authors for the interplate shear zone that constitutes the Azorean segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. It is suggested that the stress field #2 will act when the area under the influence of the regional stress field #1 narrows as a result of variations in the differential spreading rates north and south of Azores. The islands closer to the edge of the sheared region will temporarily come under the influence of a different (external stress field (stress field #2. Such data support the concept that, in the Azores, the Eurasia-Nubia boundary corresponds to a complex and wide deformation zone, variable in time.

  7. Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

    2017-04-01

    This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

  8. Volcanic Risk Perception and Preparedness in Communities within the Mount Baker and Glacier Peak Lahar Hazard Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    A community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from natural hazards depends on both the physical characteristics of the hazard and the community's inherent resilience. Resilience is shaped by a number of factors including the residents' perception of and preparedness for a natural hazard as well as the level of institutional preparedness. This study examines perception of and preparedness for lahar hazards from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak in Washington's Skagit Valley. Through an online survey, this study isolates the influence of specific variables (e.g., knowledge, past experience, scientific background, trust in various information sources, occupation, self-efficacy, sense of community) on risk perception and explores reasons behind the frequent disconnect between perception and preparedness. We anticipate that individuals with more extensive education in the sciences, especially geology or earth science, foster greater trust in scientists and a more accurate knowledge, understanding, and perception of the volcanic hazards in their community. Additionally, little research exists examining the extent to which first responders and leaders in response-related institutions prepare on a personal level. Since these individuals work toward community preparedness professionally, we hypothesize that they will be more prepared at home than members of the general public. Finally, the Skagit Valley has a significant history of flooding. We expect that the need to respond to and recover from frequent flooding creates a community with an inherently higher level of preparedness for other hazards such as lahars. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of what controls risk perception and the interplay between perception and preparedness. At a broader level, this study provides local and state-level emergency managers information to evaluate and improve response capabilities and communication with the public and key institutions in order to

  9. Volcanic ash and aviation–The challenges of real-time, global communication of a natural hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, Peter; Tupper, Andrew C.; Guffanti, Marianne C.; Loughlin, Sue; Casadevall, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    More than 30 years after the first major aircraft encounters with volcanic ash over Indonesia in 1982, it remains challenging to inform aircraft in flight of the exact location of potentially dangerous ash clouds on their flight path, particularly shortly after the eruption has occurred. The difficulties include reliably forecasting and detecting the onset of significant explosive eruptions on a global basis, observing the dispersal of eruption clouds in real time, capturing their complex structure and constituents in atmospheric transport models, describing these observations and modelling results in a manner suitable for aviation users, delivering timely warning messages to the cockpit, flight planners and air traffic management systems, and the need for scientific development in order to undertake operational enhancements. The framework under which these issues are managed is the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ICAO outlines in its standards and recommended practices (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2014) the basic volcanic monitoring and communication that is necessary at volcano observatories in Member States (countries). However, not all volcanoes are monitored and not all countries with volcanoes have mandated volcano observatories or equivalents. To add to the efforts of volcano observatories, a system of Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Traffic Management Area Control Centres, and nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are responsible for observing, analysing, forecasting and communicating the aviation hazard (airborne ash), using agreed techniques and messages in defined formats. Continuous improvement of the IAVW framework is overseen by expert groups representing the operators of the system, the user community, and the science community. The IAVW represents a unique marriage of two scientific disciplines - volcanology and meteorology - with the

  10. Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

    2017-12-01

    Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

  11. Spreading of Somma-Vesuvio Volcanic Complex: is the Hazard for Plinian Eruptions being reduced?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgia, A.; Tizzani, P.; Solaro, G.; Luongo, G.; Fusi, N.

    2003-12-01

    Contrary to what is the common knowledge, a detailed structural study of active faulting and rifting of the summit area of Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex, combined with INSAR, levelling data and seismic profiling at sea suggests that the present-day long-term dynamic behaviour of the complex and of its summit caldera is characterized by volcanic spreading. The structural evolution is controlled by a number of asymmetric, intersecting leaf-grabens. The boundary faults of these grabens intersect at different angles the Somma caldera walls generating a set of wedge-horsts. While normal faulting characterizes the Somma caldera walls, the lavas of the past 150 years, infilling the caldera, have been rifted all around the southern, eastern and northern base of Vesuvio's cone, which, in turn, is being displaced seaward. Associated to the subsidence and extension of the summit area, relative uplift occurs along the coast; in addition, deformation of recent sediments 6-18 km offshore also indicate compression and uplift, which appears to be unrelated to regional tectonics. A preliminary evaluation indicates that rifting of the lavas is in the order of 1-2 mm/a with a southwestward average direction of displacement. Based on these data, we suggest that a wide sector of Somma-Vesuvio is spreading on its plastic sedimentary substratum, which have been identified by drilling. Volcanic spreading appears to have controlled the magmatic evolution and the energy decrease of major historic explosive eruptions since 79 AD. If our interpretation is correct, major plinian eruptions should not occur in the near future. On the other hand, rifting around the caldera suggests that volcanic activity could soon be renewed.

  12. Geoethics implications in volcanic hazards in Argentina: 24 years of uninterrupted ash-fall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Elizabeth I.; Violante, Roberto A.; Uber, Silvia M.; Vázquez Herrera, Marcelo

    2016-04-01

    The impact of falling ash reaches all human activities, has effects on human and animal health and is subject to climate and ecosystem of the affected regions. From 1991 until 2015 (24 years), more than 5 eruptions with VEI ≥ 4 in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes occurred; pyroclastic, dust and volcanic ash were deposited (mostly) in Argentina. A recurring situation during eruptions of Hudson (1991), Chaiten (2008), Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) and Calbuco (2015) volcanoes was the accumulation, storage and dump of volcanic ash in depressed areas, beaches, lakes, ditches, storm drains, areas of landfills and transfer stations. The issues that this practice has taken are varied: pollution of aquifers, changes in geomorphology and water courses, usually in "inconspicuous" zones, often in places where there are precarious population or high poverty settlements. The consequences are not immediate but the effects in the mid and long term bring serious drawbacks. On the contrary, a good example of intelligent management of the volcanic impact occurred many years before, during the eruption of Descabezado Grande (Quizapu) volcano in 1932. In that case, and as an example, the city of Trenque Lauquen, located nearly 770 km east of the volcano, decided a communitarian task of collection and burial of the ashfall in small areas, this was a very successful performance. The Quizapu ash plumes transported by the Westerlies (winds) covered with a blanket of volcanic ash the city, ashfall also reached the capital cities of Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Uruguay (Montevideo). Also, the bagging process of volcanic ash with reinforced plastics was an example of Good Practice in the management of the emergency. This allowed the entire affected community to take advantage of this "mineral resource" and contributes to achieving collective and participatory work leading to commercialization and sustainability of these products availed as fertilizers, granular base for ceramics and

  13. Volcanic-Ash Hazards to Aviation—Changes and Challenges since the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Tupper, A.; Mastin, L. G.; Lechner, P.

    2012-12-01

    In response to the severe disruptions to civil aviation that resulted from atmospheric transport of ash from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) quickly formed the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF), charging it to support the accelerated development of a global risk-management framework for volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. Recognizing the need for scientifically based advice on best methods to detect ash in the atmosphere and depict zones of hazardous airspace, the IVATF sought input from the global scientific community, primarily by means of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group which was established in May 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics to serve as a scientific resource for ICAO. The IVATF finished its work in June 2012 (see http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/ivatf/Pages/default.aspx for a record of its results). A major science-based outcome is that production of charts depicting areas of airspace expected to have specific ash-concentration values (e.g. 4 mg/cu. m) will not be required of the world's nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). The VAACs are responsible for issuing warning information to the aviation sector regarding ash-cloud position and expected movement. Forecast concentrations in these charts are based primarily on dispersion models that have at least an order of magnitude in uncertainty in their output and therefore do not delineate hazardous airspace with the level of confidence needed by the aviation sector. The recommended approach to improving model-forecast accuracy is to assimilate diverse observations (e.g., satellite thermal-infrared measurements, lidar, radar, direct airborne sampling, visual sightings, etc.) into model simulations; doing that during an eruption in the demanding environment of aviation operations is a substantial challenge. A

  14. Improving volcanic ash predictions with the HYSPLIT dispersion model by assimilating MODIS satellite retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Tianfeng; Crawford, Alice; Stunder, Barbara; Pavolonis, Michael J.; Draxler, Roland; Stein, Ariel

    2017-02-01

    Currently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) runs the HYSPLIT dispersion model with a unit mass release rate to predict the transport and dispersion of volcanic ash. The model predictions provide information for the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) to issue advisories to meteorological watch offices, area control centers, flight information centers, and others. This research aims to provide quantitative forecasts of ash distributions generated by objectively and optimally estimating the volcanic ash source strengths, vertical distribution, and temporal variations using an observation-modeling inversion technique. In this top-down approach, a cost functional is defined to quantify the differences between the model predictions and the satellite measurements of column-integrated ash concentrations weighted by the model and observation uncertainties. Minimizing this cost functional by adjusting the sources provides the volcanic ash emission estimates. As an example, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite retrievals of the 2008 Kasatochi volcanic ash clouds are used to test the HYSPLIT volcanic ash inverse system. Because the satellite retrievals include the ash cloud top height but not the bottom height, there are different model diagnostic choices for comparing the model results with the observed mass loadings. Three options are presented and tested. Although the emission estimates vary significantly with different options, the subsequent model predictions with the different release estimates all show decent skill when evaluated against the unassimilated satellite observations at later times. Among the three options, integrating over three model layers yields slightly better results than integrating from the surface up to the observed volcanic ash cloud top or using a single model layer. Inverse tests also show that including the ash-free region to constrain the model is not

  15. Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)

    2014-08-15

    Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

  16. Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

    2018-06-01

    The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

  17. Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairweather, Ian; Crabtree, Robert; Hager, Stacey

    2008-01-01

    ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

  18. Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul D.; Stewart, Iain

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents the findings from a study aimed at understanding whether video games (or serious games) can be effective in enhancing volcanic hazard education and communication. Using the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, we have developed a video game - St. Vincent's Volcano - for use in existing volcano education and outreach sessions. Its twin aims are to improve residents' knowledge of potential future eruptive hazards (ash fall, pyroclastic flows and lahars) and to integrate traditional methods of education in a more interactive manner. Here, we discuss the process of game development including concept design through to the final implementation on St. Vincent. Preliminary results obtained from the final implementation (through pre- and post-test knowledge quizzes) for both student and adult participants provide indications that a video game of this style may be effective in improving a learner's knowledge. Both groups of participants demonstrated a post-test increase in their knowledge quiz score of 9.3 % for adults and 8.3 % for students and, when plotted as learning gains (Hake, 1998), show similar overall improvements (0.11 for adults and 0.09 for students). These preliminary findings may provide a sound foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. This paper also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study.

  19. Multivariate Models for Prediction of Human Skin Sensitization Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M.; Allen, David; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Kleinstreuer, Nicole

    2016-01-01

    One of ICCVAM’s top priorities is the development and evaluation of non-animal approaches to identify potential skin sensitizers. The complexity of biological events necessary to produce skin sensitization suggests that no single alternative method will replace the currently accepted animal tests. ICCVAM is evaluating an integrated approach to testing and assessment based on the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization that uses machine learning approaches to predict human skin sensitization hazard. We combined data from three in chemico or in vitro assays—the direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT), and KeratinoSens™ assay—six physicochemical properties, and an in silico read-across prediction of skin sensitization hazard into 12 variable groups. The variable groups were evaluated using two machine learning approaches, logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM), to predict human skin sensitization hazard. Models were trained on 72 substances and tested on an external set of 24 substances. The six models (three LR and three SVM) with the highest accuracy (92%) used: (1) DPRA, h-CLAT, and read-across; (2) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, and KeratinoSens; or (3) DPRA, h-CLAT, read-across, KeratinoSens, and log P. The models performed better at predicting human skin sensitization hazard than the murine local lymph node assay (accuracy = 88%), any of the alternative methods alone (accuracy = 63–79%), or test batteries combining data from the individual methods (accuracy = 75%). These results suggest that computational methods are promising tools to effectively identify potential human skin sensitizers without animal testing. PMID:27480324

  20. Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, B. D.; Gravley, D.; Clarke, A. B.; Bloomberg, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    The most dangerous phenomena associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions are dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These are turbulent, ground-hugging sediment gravity currents that travel radially away from the explosive center at up to 100 m/s. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, consists of approximately 50 eruptive centers, at least 39 of which have had explosive phreatomagmatic behaviour. A primary concern for future AVF eruptions is the impact of dilute PDCs in and around the Auckland area. We combine field observations from the Maungataketake tuff ring, which has one of the best exposures of dilute PDC deposits in the AVF, with a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, steady-state, depth-averaged dilute PDC (modified from Bursik and Woods, 1996 Bull Volcanol 58:175-193). The model allows us to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact on societal infrastructure of dilute PDCs from a future AVF eruption. The lower portion of the Maungataketake tuff ring pyroclastic deposits contains trunks, limbs and fragments of Podocarp trees (strength of the wood, we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) of 10-75 kPa are necessary to topple trees of this size and composition. Thus the two main criteria for model success based on the field evidence include (a) Pdyn must be >10 kPa nearer than 0.9 km to the vent, and 35 kPa can be expected within 3 km from source, ensuring complete destruction of the area; Pdyn > 15 kPa up to 5 km from source, resulting in heavy structural damage to most buildings and near destruction of weaker buildings; and Pdyn <10 kPa at ~6 km from source, resulting in severe damage to weaker structures at least up to this distance. This exercise illustrates our ability to combine field measurements with numerical techniques to explore controlling parameters of dilute PDC dynamics. These tools can be used to understand and estimate the damage potential and

  1. Assessment of volcanic and tectonic hazards to high level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallmann, P.C.; Miller, I.; Kossik, R.

    1993-01-01

    Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a computer program (RIP) for performing probabilistic total system performance assessment and site characterization strategy evaluation which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and to guide characterization activities. The performance assessment model incorporated in RIP has three basic component models: (1) waste package behavior, (2) radionuclide transport pathways, and (3) disruptive events. Classes of disruptive events are specified in RIP by (1) a disruption rate (events/yr.), (2) open-quotes event descriptorsclose quotes which describe event characteristics and magnitude, and (3) the consequences associated with an event. One of the strengths of RIP is its flexibility, which allows it to evaluate different sites and conceptual models. Examples of seismic and volcanic disruptive event models constructed by GAI for Yucca Mountain are presented. Analysis of the results of these models indicates that for the simulated models, neither of these event classes significantly impacts the performance of the proposed repository over a 10,000 year time span

  2. Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2017-04-01

    The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

  3. Real-time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, N. A.; Hughes, E. J.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Seftor, C. J.; Brentzel, K. W.; Hassinen, S.; Heinrichs, T. A.; Schneider, D. J.; Hoffman, R.; Myers, T.; Flynn, L. E.; Niu, J.; Theys, N.; Brenot, H. H.

    2016-12-01

    within the model. The GEOS-5 simulations provide qualitative forecasts, which locate the extent of regions hazardous to aviation. Air traffic flow algorithms have been developed by Metron Aviation to use GEOS-5 volcanic simulations to determine the most cost-effective rerouting paths around hazardous volcanic clouds.

  4. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  5. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  6. Visual motion perception predicts driving hazard perception ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacherez, Philippe; Au, Sandra; Wood, Joanne M

    2014-02-01

    To examine the basis of previous findings of an association between indices of driving safety and visual motion sensitivity and to examine whether this association could be explained by low-level changes in visual function. A total of 36 visually normal participants (aged 19-80 years) completed a battery of standard vision tests including visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and automated visual fields and two tests of motion perception including sensitivity for movement of a drifting Gabor stimulus and sensitivity for displacement in a random dot kinematogram (Dmin ). Participants also completed a hazard perception test (HPT), which measured participants' response times to hazards embedded in video recordings of real-world driving, which has been shown to be linked to crash risk. Dmin for the random dot stimulus ranged from -0.88 to -0.12 log minutes of arc, and the minimum drift rate for the Gabor stimulus ranged from 0.01 to 0.35 cycles per second. Both measures of motion sensitivity significantly predicted response times on the HPT. In addition, while the relationship involving the HPT and motion sensitivity for the random dot kinematogram was partially explained by the other visual function measures, the relationship with sensitivity for detection of the drifting Gabor stimulus remained significant even after controlling for these variables. These findings suggest that motion perception plays an important role in the visual perception of driving-relevant hazards independent of other areas of visual function and should be further explored as a predictive test of driving safety. Future research should explore the causes of reduced motion perception to develop better interventions to improve road safety. © 2012 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2012 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  7. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2014-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

  8. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  9. Earthquake Prediction Research In Iceland, Applications For Hazard Assessments and Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.

    Earthquake prediction research in Iceland, applications for hazard assessments and warnings. The first multinational earthquake prediction research project in Iceland was the Eu- ropean Council encouraged SIL project of the Nordic countries, 1988-1995. The path selected for this research was to study the physics of crustal processes leading to earth- quakes. It was considered that small earthquakes, down to magnitude zero, were the most significant for this purpose, because of the detailed information which they pro- vide both in time and space. The test area for the project was the earthquake prone region of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The PRENLAB and PRENLAB-2 projects, 1996-2000 supported by the European Union were a direct continuation of the SIL project, but with a more multidisciplinary approach. PRENLAB stands for "Earthquake prediction research in a natural labo- ratory". The basic objective was to advance our understanding in general on where, when and how dangerous NH10earthquake motion might strike. Methods were devel- oped to study crustal processes and conditions, by microearthquake information, by continuous GPS, InSAR, theoretical modelling, fault mapping and paleoseismology. New algorithms were developed for short term warnings. A very useful short term warning was issued twice in the year 2000, one for a sudden start of an eruption in Volcano Hekla February 26, and the other 25 hours before a second (in a sequence of two) magnitude 6.6 (Ms) earthquake in the South Iceland seismic zone in June 21, with the correct location and approximate size. A formal short term warning, although not going to the public, was also issued before a magnitude 5 earthquake in November 1998. In the presentation it will be shortly described what these warnings were based on. A general hazard assessmnets was presented in scientific journals 10-15 years ago assessing within a few kilometers the location of the faults of the two 2000 earthquakes and suggesting

  10. A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

    2016-06-16

    A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

  11. Improved Near Real Time WRF-Chem Volcanic Emission Prediction and Impacts of Ash Aerosol on Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuefer, M.; Webley, P. W.; Hirtl, M.

    2017-12-01

    We use the numerical Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to investigate the regional effects of volcanic aerosol on weather. A lot of observational data have become available since the Icelandic eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in spring 2010. The observed plume characteristics and meteorological data have been exploited for volcanic WRF-Chem case studies. We concluded that the Eyjafjallajökull ash plume resulted in significant direct aerosol effects altering the state of the atmosphere over large parts of Europe. The WRF-Chem model runs show near surface temperature differences up to 3ºC, altered vertical stability, changed pressure- and wind fields within the atmosphere loaded with ash aerosol. The modeled results have been evaluated with lidar network data, and ground and balloon based observations all over Europe. Besides case studies, we use WRF-Chem to build an improved volcanic ash decision support system that NOAA can use within the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) system. Realistic eruption source parameter (ESP) estimates are a main challenge in predicting volcanic emission dispersion in near real time. We implemented historic ESP into the WRF-Chem preprocessing routine, which can be used as a first estimate to assess a volcanic plume once eruption activity is reported. In a second step, a range of varying plume heights has been associated with the different ash variables within WRF-Chem, resulting in an assembly of different plume scenarios within one WRF-Chem model run. Once there is plume information available from ground or satellite observations, the forecaster has the option to select the corresponding ash variable that best matches the observations. In addition we added an automatic domain generation tool to create near real time WRF-Chem model runs anywhere on the globe by reducing computing expenses at the same time.

  12. Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

  13. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  14. Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

    2002-03-01

    Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

  15. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

  16. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-09-11

    The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

  17. Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

    2017-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

  18. Spatial prediction models for landslide hazards: review, comparison and evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Brenning

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The predictive power of logistic regression, support vector machines and bootstrap-aggregated classification trees (bagging, double-bagging is compared using misclassification error rates on independent test data sets. Based on a resampling approach that takes into account spatial autocorrelation, error rates for predicting 'present' and 'future' landslides are estimated within and outside the training area. In a case study from the Ecuadorian Andes, logistic regression with stepwise backward variable selection yields lowest error rates and demonstrates the best generalization capabilities. The evaluation outside the training area reveals that tree-based methods tend to overfit the data.

  19. Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

  20. Evaluating the hazard from Siding Spring dust: Models and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christou, A.

    2014-12-01

    Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will pass at a distance of ~140 thousand km (9e-4 AU) - about a third of a lunar distance - from the centre of Mars, closer to this planet than any known comet has come to the Earth since records began. Closest approach is expected to occur at 18:30 UT on the 19th October. This provides an opportunity for a ``free'' flyby of a different type of comet than those investigated by spacecraft so far, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko currently under scrutiny by the Rosetta spacecraft. At the same time, the passage of the comet through Martian space will create the opportunity to study the reaction of the planet's upper atmosphere to a known natural perturbation. The flip-side of the coin is the risk to Mars-orbiting assets, both existing (NASA's Mars Odyssey & Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and ESA's Mars Express) and in transit (NASA's MAVEN and ISRO's Mangalyaan) by high-speed cometary dust potentially impacting spacecraft surfaces. Much work has already gone into assessing this hazard and devising mitigating measures in the precious little warning time given to characterise this object until Mars encounter. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of how the meteoroid stream and comet coma dust impact models evolved since the comet's discovery and discuss lessons learned should similar circumstances arise in the future.

  1. Validating predictions made by a thermo-mechanical model of melt segregation in sub-volcanic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roele, Katarina; Jackson, Matthew; Morgan, Joanna

    2014-05-01

    A quantitative understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of melt distribution in the crust is crucial in providing insights into the development of sub-volcanic crustal stratigraphy and composition. This work aims to relate numerical models that describe the base of volcanic systems with geophysical observations. Recent modelling has shown that the repetitive emplacement of mantle-derived basaltic sills, at the base of the lower crust, acts as a heat source for anatectic melt generation, buoyancy-driven melt segregation and mobilisation. These processes form the lowermost architecture of complex sub-volcanic networks as upward migrating melt produces high melt fraction layers. These 'porosity waves' are separated by zones with high compaction rates and have distinctive polybaric chemical signatures that suggest mixed crust and mantle origins. A thermo-mechanical model produced by Solano et al in 2012 has been used to predict the temperatures and melt fractions of successive high porosity layers within the crust. This model was used as it accounts for the dynamic evolution of melt during segregation and migration through the crust; a significant process that has been neglected in previous models. The results were used to input starting compositions for each of the layers into the rhyolite-MELTS thermodynamic simulation. MELTS then determined the approximate bulk composition of the layers once they had cooled and solidified. The mean seismic wave velocities of the polymineralic layers were then calculated using the relevant Voight-Reuss-Hill mixture rules, whilst accounting for the pressure and temperature dependence of seismic wave velocity. The predicted results were then compared with real examples of reflectivity for areas including the UK, where lower crustal layering is observed. A comparison between the impedance contrasts at compositional boundaries is presented as it confirms the extent to which modelling is able to make predictions that are

  2. Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

    1998-01-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

  3. Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations: Ground Motion Prediction Equations and Site Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    The objective of this publication is to provide the state-of-the-art practice and detailed technical elements related to ground motion evaluation by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and site response in the context of seismic hazard assessments as recommended in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The publication includes the basics of GMPEs, ground motion simulation, selection and adjustment of GMPEs, site characterization, and modelling of site response in order to improve seismic hazard assessment. The text aims at delineating the most important aspects of these topics (including current practices, criticalities and open problems) within a coherent framework. In particular, attention has been devoted to filling conceptual gaps. It is written as a reference text for trained users who are responsible for planning preparatory seismic hazard analyses for siting of all nuclear installations and/or providing constraints for anti-seismic design and retrofitting of existing structures

  4. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  5. Volcanic stratigraphy: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martí, Joan; Groppelli, Gianluca; Brum da Silveira, Antonio

    2018-05-01

    Volcanic stratigraphy is a fundamental component of geological mapping in volcanic areas as it yields the basic criteria and essential data for identifying the spatial and temporal relationships between volcanic products and intra/inter-eruptive processes (earth-surface, tectonic and climatic), which in turn provides greater understanding of the geological evolution of a region. Establishing precise stratigraphic relationships in volcanic successions is not only essential for understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes and for predicting how they might behave in the future, but is also critical for establishing guidelines for exploring economic and energy resources associated with volcanic systems or for reconstructing the evolution of sedimentary basins in which volcanism has played a significant role. Like classical stratigraphy, volcanic stratigraphy should also be defined using a systematic methodology that can provide an organised and comprehensive description of the temporal and spatial evolution of volcanic terrain. This review explores different methods employed in studies of volcanic stratigraphy, examines four case studies that use differing stratigraphic approaches, and recommends methods for using systematic volcanic stratigraphy based on the application of the concepts of traditional stratigraphy but adapted to the needs of volcanological environment.

  6. The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

  7. Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

    2016-01-01

    A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

  8. A combined field and numerical approach to understanding dilute pyroclastic density current dynamics and hazard potential: Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Brittany D.; Gravley, Darren M.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Bloomberg, Simon H.; Agustin-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly

    2014-04-01

    The most dangerous and deadly hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; Auckland, New Zealand) are those related to volcanic base surges - dilute, ground-hugging, particle laden currents with dynamic pressures capable of severe to complete structural damage. We use the well-exposed base surge deposits of the Maungataketake tuff ring (Manukau coast, Auckland), to reconstruct flow dynamics and destructive potential of base surges produced during the eruption. The initial base surge(s) snapped trees up to 0.5 m in diameter near their base as far as 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this distance the trees were encapsulated and buried by the surge in growth position. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) in excess of 12-35 kPa are necessary to cause the observed damage. Next we develop a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to determine the damage potential of the base surges produced during the early phases of the eruption and explore the implications of this potential on future eruptions in the region. We find that initial conditions with velocities on the order of 65 m s- 1, bulk density of 38 kg m- 3 and initial, near-vent current thicknesses of 60 m reproduce the field-based Pdyn estimates and runout distances. A sensitivity analysis revealed that lower initial bulk densities result in shorter run-out distances, more rapid deceleration of the current and lower dynamic pressures. Initial velocity does not have a strong influence on run-out distance, although higher initial velocity and slope slightly decrease runout distance due to higher rates of atmospheric entrainment. Using this model we determine that for base surges with runout distances of up to 4 km, complete destruction can be expected within 0.5 km from the vent, moderate destruction can be expected up to 2 km, but much

  9. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  10. Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael King

    Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

  11. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  12. Studies of crustal structure, seismic precursors to volcanic eruptions and earthquake hazard in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mavonga, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, civil wars in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo have caused massive social disruptions, which have been exacerbated by volcanic and earthquake disasters. Seismic data were gathered and analysed as part...

  13. Recent advances in prediction of emission of hazardous air pollutants from coal-fired power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senior, C.L.; Helble, J.J.; Sarofim, A.F.

    2000-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants are a primary source of mercury discharge into the atmosphere along with fine particulates containing arsenic, selenium, cadmium, and other hazardous air pollutants. Information regarding the speciation of these toxic metals is necessary to accurately predict their atmospheric transport and fate in the environment. New predictive tools have been developed to allow utilities to better estimate the emissions of toxic metals from coal-fired power plants. These prediction equations are based on fundamental physics and chemistry and can be applied to a wide variety of fuel types and combustion conditions. The models have significantly improved the ability to predict the emissions of air toxic metals in fine particulate and gas-phase mercury. In this study, the models were successfully tested using measured mercury speciation and mass balance information collected from coal-fired power plants

  14. Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwater, Terrill

    1993-01-01

    Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

  15. Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis in Mortality Prediction of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babińska Magdalena

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of incorrect assessment of mortality risk factors in a group of patients affected by acute coronary syndrome, due to the lack of hazard proportionality in the Cox regression model. One hundred and fifty consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and no age limit were enrolled. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed. The proportional hazard assumptions were verified using Schoenfeld residuals, χ2 test and rank correlation coefficient t between residuals and time. In the total group of 150 patients, 33 (22.0% deaths from any cause were registered in the follow-up time period of 64 months. The non-survivors were significantly older and had increased prevalence of diabetes and erythrocyturia, longer history of coronary artery disease, higher concentrations of serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, glucose, C-reactive protein (CRP, homocysteine and B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, and lower concentrations of serum sodium. No significant differences in echocardiography parameters were observed between groups. The following factors were risk of death factors and fulfilled the proportional hazard assumption in the univariable model: smoking, occurrence of diabetes and anaemia, duration of coronary artery disease, and abnormal serum concentrations of uric acid, sodium, homocysteine, cystatin C and NT-proBNP, while in the multivariable model, the risk of death factors were: smoking and elevated concentrations of homocysteine and NT-proBNP. The study has demonstrated that violation of the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox regression model may lead to creating a false model that does not include only time-independent predictive factors.

  16. National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; ,

    2007-01-01

    International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) International Airways Volcano Watch. This plan defines agency responsibilities, provides a comprehensive description of an interagency standard for volcanic ash products and their formats, describes the agency backup procedures for operational products, and outlines the actions to be taken by each agency following an occurrence of a volcanic eruption that subsequently affects and impacts aviation services. Since our most recent International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, volcanic ash-related product and service activities have grown considerably along with partnerships and alliances throughout the aviation community. In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environment Prediction began running the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model in place of the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion (VAFTAD) model, upgrading support to the volcanic ash advisory community. Today, improvements to the HYSPLIT model are ongoing based on recommendations by the OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models and the Joint Action Group for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (Research and Development Plan). Two international workshops on volcanic ash have already taken place, noticeable improvements and innovations in education, training, and outreach have been made, and federal and public education and training programs on volcanic ash-related products, services, and procedures iv continue to evolve. For example, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and other academic institutions, volcanic ash hazard and mitigation training has been incorporated into aviation meteorology courses. As an essential next step, our volcanic ash-related efforts in the near term will be centered on the development of an interagency implementation plan to

  17. Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Siebert, L.; Hubbard, B.; Sheridan, M.F.; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

    2006-01-01

    The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic

  18. SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

    1997-01-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

  19. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  20. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  1. Use of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUCKLEY, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This report provides background information on the implementation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software package at the Savannah River Site for atmospheric modeling. Developed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), HPAC is actually a suite of models that allows for various modes of release of radiological, chemical and biological agents, generates interpolated meteorological data fields based on inputted meteorology, and transports the material using a tested transport and diffusion model. A discussion of meteorological data availability for direct use by HPAC is given, and is important for applications to emergency response. An evaluation of the data input methodology for a release from SRS is examined, as well as an application to the World Trade Center attacks in New York City in September 2001. Benefits of the newer versions of HPAC now in use are then discussed. These include access to more meteorological data sources and improved graphical cap abilities. The HPAC software package is another tool to help the Atmospheric Technologies Group (ATG) provide atmospheric transport and dispersion predictions in the event of hazardous atmospheric releases

  2. Hazard Forecasting by MRI: A Prediction Algorithm of the First Kind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, C.

    2003-12-01

    Seismic gaps do not tell us when and where the next earthquake is due. We present new results on limited earthquake hazard prediction at plate boundaries. Our algorithm quantifies earthquake hazard in seismic gaps. The prediction window found for M7 is on the order of 50 km by 20 years (Lomnitz, 1996a). The earth is unstable with respect to small perturbations of the initial conditions. A prediction of the first kind is an estimate of the time evolution of a complex system with fixed boundary conditions in response to changes in the initial state, for example, weather prediction (Edward Lorenz, 1975; Hasselmann, 2002). We use the catalog of large world earthquakes as a proxy for the initial conditions. The MRI algorithm simulates the response of the system to updating the catalog. After a local stress transient dP the entropy decays as (grad dP)2 due to transient flows directed toward the epicenter. Healing is the thermodynamic process which resets the state of stress. It proceeds as a power law from the rupture boundary inwards, as in a wound. The half-life of a rupture is defined as the healing time which shrinks the size of a scar by half. Healed segments of plate boundary can rupture again. From observations in Chile, Mexico and Japan we find that the half-life of a seismic rupture is about 20 years, in agreement with seismic gap observations. The moment ratio MR is defined as the contrast between the cumulative regional moment release and the local moment deficiency at time t along the plate boundary. The procedure is called MRI. The findings: (1) MRI works; (2) major earthquakes match prominent peaks in the MRI graph; (3) important events (Central Chile 1985; Mexico 1985; Kobe 1995) match MRI peaks which began to emerge 10 to 20 years before the earthquake; (4) The emergence of peaks in MRI depends on earlier ruptures that occurred, not adjacent to but at 10 to 20 fault lengths from the epicentral region, in agreement with triggering effects. The hazard

  3. Natural Hazards, Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhban, Badaoui

    Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

  4. Operational and contractual impacts in E and P offshore during predicted natural hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benevides, Paulo Roberto Correa de Sa e [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Generally, when E and P operators using DP (Dynamic Positioning) are advised previously of a possible natural hazard occurrence, usually they consider it like an emergency situation and their main action is oriented only to prepare the first response and use the 'force majeure' argumentation to protect itself from any additional responsibility. When the natural phenomenon actually happens, the expenses due to the losses will be accepted because it was already considered in its budget as 'Losses due to accident' and it will be shared by the partners of the project according to the correspondent contractual terms. This paper describes real cases of the evolution of predictions for natural hazards in offshore basins in Brazil, Western Africa and Gulf of Mexico where PETROBRAS and many other oil companies have used DP operations. It proposes some alternative procedures through the BCM (Business Continuity Management) to manage natural crisis instead of the common use of the traditional 'force majeure' argumentation. (author)

  5. Predictions of asteroid hazard to the Earth for the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrov, Nikita; Sokolov, Leonid; Polyakhova, Elena; Oskina, Kristina

    2018-05-01

    Early detection and investigation of possible collisions and close approaches of asteroids with the Earth are necessary to exept the asteroid-comet hazard. The difficulty of prediction of close approaches and collisions associated with resonant returns after encounters with the Earth due to loss of precision in these encounters. The main research object is asteroid Apophis (99942), for which we found many possible orbits of impacts associated with resonant returns. It is shown that the early orbit change of Apophis allows to avoid main impacts, associated with resonant returns. Such a change of the orbit, in principle, is feasible. We also study the possible impacts with the Ground asteroid 2015 RN35. We present 21 possible collisions in this century, including 7 collisions with large gaps presented in NASA website. The results of observations by the telescope ZA-320M at Pulkovo Obser-vatory of the three near-Earth asteroids, namely, 7822, 20826, 68216, two of which 7822 and 68216 are potentially hazardous, are presented.

  6. Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauer, Barbara

    2018-01-01

    Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited.The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO2). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses.Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

  7. Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David E; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara

    2018-07-01

    Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited. The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm 2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm 2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO 2 ). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses. Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

  8. A brief peripheral motion contrast threshold test predicts older drivers' hazardous behaviors in simulated driving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Steven; Woods-Fry, Heather; Collin, Charles A; Gagnon, Sylvain; Voloaca, Misha; Grant, John; Rosenthal, Ted; Allen, Wade

    2015-05-01

    Our research group has previously demonstrated that the peripheral motion contrast threshold (PMCT) test predicts older drivers' self-report accident risk, as well as simulated driving performance. However, the PMCT is too lengthy to be a part of a battery of tests to assess fitness to drive. Therefore, we have developed a new version of this test, which takes under two minutes to administer. We assessed the motion contrast thresholds of 24 younger drivers (19-32) and 25 older drivers (65-83) with both the PMCT-10min and the PMCT-2min test and investigated if thresholds were associated with measures of simulated driving performance. Younger participants had significantly lower motion contrast thresholds than older participants and there were no significant correlations between younger participants' thresholds and any measures of driving performance. The PMCT-10min and the PMCT-2min thresholds of older drivers' predicted simulated crash risk, as well as the minimum distance of approach to all hazards. This suggests that our tests of motion processing can help predict the risk of collision or near collision in older drivers. Thresholds were also correlated with the total lane deviation time, suggesting a deficiency in processing of peripheral flow and delayed detection of adjacent cars. The PMCT-2min is an improved version of a previously validated test, and it has the potential to help assess older drivers' fitness to drive. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Numerical Simulations as Tool to Predict Chemical and Radiological Hazardous Diffusion in Case of Nonconventional Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Ciparisse

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations are widely used nowadays to predict the behaviour of fluids in pure research and in industrial applications. This approach makes it possible to get quantitatively meaningful results, often in good agreement with the experimental ones. The aim of this paper is to show how CFD calculations can help to understand the time evolution of two possible CBRNe (Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear-explosive events: (1 hazardous dust mobilization due to the interaction between a jet of air and a metallic powder in case of a LOVA (Loss Of Vacuum Accidents that is one of the possible accidents that can occur in experimental nuclear fusion plants; (2 toxic gas release in atmosphere. The scenario analysed in the paper has consequences similar to those expected in case of a release of dangerous substances (chemical or radioactive in enclosed or open environment during nonconventional events (like accidents or man-made or natural disasters.

  10. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  11. Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce M. Crowe; Frank V. Perry; Greg A. Valentine; Lynn M. Bowker

    1998-12-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is

  12. Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellón, Juan Ángel; de Dios Luna, Juan; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Motrico, Emma; GildeGómez-Barragán, María Josefa; Torres-González, Francisco; Montón-Franco, Carmen; Sánchez-Celaya, Marta; Díaz-Barreiros, Miguel Ángel; Vicens, Catalina; Moreno-Peral, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers. To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT. From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9. The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  13. Study on integrated approach of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling System based on GIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Lijuan; Huang Shunxiang; Wang Xinming

    2012-01-01

    The issue of nuclear safety becomes the attention focus of international society after the nuclear accident happened in Fukushima. Aiming at the requirements of the prevention and controlling of Nuclear Accident establishment of Nuclear Accident Hazard Predicting, Warning and optimized Controlling System (NAPWS) is a imperative project that our country and army are desiderating, which includes multiple fields of subject as nuclear physics, atmospheric science, security science, computer science and geographical information technology, etc. Multiplatform, multi-system and multi-mode are integrated effectively based on GIS, accordingly the Predicting, Warning, and Optimized Controlling technology System of Nuclear Accident Hazard is established. (authors)

  14. Wave climate change, coastline response and hazard prediction in New South Wales, Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, Ian D.; Verdon, Danielle; Cowell, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Considerable research effort has been directed towards understanding and the gross prediction of shoreline response to sea level rise (eg. Cowell ef a/. 2003a, b). In contrast, synoptic prediction of changes in the planform configuration of shorelines in response to changes in wind and wave climates over many decades has been limited by the lack of geohistorical data on shoreline alignment evolution and long time series of wave climate. This paper presents new data sets on monthly mean wave direction variability based on: a. Waverider buoy data; b. a reconstruction of monthly mid-shelf wave direction, 1877 to 2002 AD from historical MSLP data (Goodwin 2005); and c. a multi-decadal reconstruction of wave direction, in association with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode of climate variability, covering the past millennium. A model of coastline response to the wave climate variability is presented for northern and central New South Wales (NSW) for decadal to multi-decadal time scales, and is based on instrumental and geohistorical data. The sensitivity of the coastline position and alignment, and beach state to mean and extreme wave climate changes is demonstrated (e.g. Goodwin et al. 2006). State changes in geometric shoreline alignment rotation, sand volume (progradation/recession) for NSW and mean wave direction, are shown to be in agreement with the low-frequency change in Pacific-wide climate. Synoptic typing of climate patterns using Self Organised Mapping methods is used to downscale CSIRO GCM output for this century. The synoptic types are correlated to instrumental wave climate data and coastal behaviour. The shifts in downscaled synoptic types for 2030 and 2070 AD are then used as the basis for predicting mean wave climate changes, coastal behaviour and hazards along the NSW coastline. The associated coastal hazards relate to the definition of coastal land loss through rising sea levels and shoreline

  15. Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

    2008-01-01

    Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

  16. Thermal regime of the lithosphere and prediction of seismic hazard in the Caspian region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, L.E.; Solodilov, L.N.; Kondorskaya, N.V.; Gasanov, A.G; Panahi, B.M.

    2002-01-01

    Full text : Prediction of seicmicity is one of elements of ecology hazard warning. In this collective research, it is elaborated in three directions : quantitative estimate of regional faults by level of seismic activity; ascertainment of space position of earthquake risk zones, determination of high seismic potential sites for the period of the next 3-5 years. During elaboration of prediction, it takes into account that peculiar feature all over the is determined by relationship of about 90 percent of earthquake hypocenters and released energy of seismic waves with elactic-brittle ayer of the lithosphere. Concetration of earthquakes epicenters is established predominantly in zones of complex structure of elastic-brittle layer where gradient of it thickness is 20-30 km. Directions of hypocenters migration in the plastic-viscous layer reveal a space position of seismic dangerous zones. All this provides a necessity for generalization of data on location of earthquakes epicenters; determination of their magnitudes, space position of regional faults and heat flow with calculation of thermal regime being made for clarification of the lithosphere and elastic-brittle thickness variations separately. General analysis includes a calculation of released seismic wave energy and determination of peculiar features of its distribution in the entire region and also studies of hypocenters migration in the plastic-viscous layer of the litosphere in time.

  17. Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Dar A.; Church, Richard; Ustin, Susan L.; Brass, James A. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated

  18. Recent and Hazardous Volcanic Activity Along the NW Rift Zone of Piton De La Fournaise Volcano, La Réunion Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walther, G.; Frese, I.; Di Muro, A.; Kueppers, U.; Michon, L.; Metrich, N.

    2014-12-01

    Shield volcanoes are a common feature of basaltic volcanism. Their volcanic activity is often confined to a summit crater area and rift systems, both characterized by constructive (scoria and cinder cones; lava flows) and destructive (pit craters; caldera collapse) phenomena. Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) shield volcano (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) is an ideal place to study these differences in eruptive behaviour. Besides the frequent eruptions in the central Enclos Fouqué caldera, hundreds of eruptive vents opened along three main rift zones cutting the edifice during the last 50 kyrs. Two short rift zones are characterized by weak seismicity and lateral magma transport at shallow depth (above sea level). Here we focus on the third and largest rift zone (15km wide, 20 km long), which extends in a north-westerly direction between PdF and nearby Piton des Neiges volcanic complex. It is typified by deep seismicity (up to 30 km), emitting mostly primitive magmas, testifying of high fluid pressures (up to 5 kbar) and large-volume eruptions. We present new field data (including stratigraphic logs, a geological map of the area, C-14 dating and geochemical analyses of the eruption products) on one of the youngest (~6kyrs) and largest lava field (Trous Blancs eruption). It extends for 24km from a height of 1800 m asl, passing Le Tampon and Saint Pierre cities, until reaching the coast. The source area of this huge lava flow has been identified in an alignment of four previously unidentified pit craters. The eruption initiated with intense fountaining activity, producing a m-thick bed of loose black scoria, which becomes densely welded in its upper part; followed by an alternation of volume rich lava effusions and strombolian activity, resulting in the emplacement of meter-thick, massive units of olivine-basalt alternating with coarse scoria beds in the proximal area. Activity ended with the emplacement of a dm-thick bed of glassy, dense scoria and a stratified lithic

  19. Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

  20. Months between rejuvenation and volcanic eruption at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Till, Christy B.; Vazquez, Jorge A.; Boyce, Jeremy W

    2015-01-01

    Rejuvenation of previously intruded silicic magma is an important process leading to effusive rhyolite, which is the most common product of volcanism at calderas with protracted histories of eruption and unrest such as Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Valles, USA. Although orders of magnitude smaller in volume than rare caldera-forming super-eruptions, these relatively frequent effusions of rhyolite are comparable to the largest eruptions of the 20th century and pose a considerable volcanic hazard. However, the physical pathway from rejuvenation to eruption of silicic magma is unclear particularly because the time between reheating of a subvolcanic intrusion and eruption is poorly quantified. This study uses geospeedometry of trace element profiles with nanometer resolution in sanidine crystals to reveal that Yellowstone’s most recent volcanic cycle began when remobilization of a near- or sub-solidus silicic magma occurred less than 10 months prior to eruption, following a 220,000 year period of volcanic repose. Our results reveal a geologically rapid timescale for rejuvenation and effusion of ~3 km3 of high-silica rhyolite lava even after protracted cooling of the subvolcanic system, which is consistent with recent physical modeling that predict a timescale of several years or less. Future renewal of rhyolitic volcanism at Yellowstone is likely to require an energetic intrusion of mafic or silicic magma into the shallow subvolcanic reservoir and could rapidly generate an eruptible rhyolite on timescales similar to those documented here.

  1. Hazard responses in the pre-industrial era: vulnerability and resilience of traditional societies to volcanic disasters and the implications for present-day disaster planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangster, Heather

    2014-05-01

    A major research frontier in the study of natural hazard research involves unravelling the ways in which societies have reacted historically to disasters, and how such responses influence current policies of disaster reduction. For societies it is common to classify responses to natural hazards into: pre-industrial (folk); industrial; and post-industrial (comprehensive) responses. Pre-industrial societies are characterised by: a pre-dominantly rural location; an agricultural economic focus; artisan handicrafts rather than industrial production, parochialism, with people rarely travelling outside their local area and being little affected by external events and a feudal or semi-feudal social structure. In the past, hazard assessment focused on the physical processes that produced extreme and potentially damaging occurrences, however from the middle of the twenty-first century research into natural hazards has been cast within a framework defined by the polarities (or opposites) of vulnerability and resilience, subject to a blend of unique environmental, social, economic and cultural forces in hazardous areas, that either increase or decrease the impact of extreme events on a given society. In the past decade research of this type has been facilitated by a 'revolution' of source materials across a range of languages and in a variety of electronic formats (e.g. official archives; major contemporary and near-contemporary publications - often available as reprints; national and international newspapers of record; newsreel-films; and, photographs) and in the introduction of more reliable translation software (e.g. Systrans) that provides far more scope to the researcher in the study of natural hazards than was the case even a few years ago. Knowledge of hazard responses in the pre-industrial era is, not only important in its own right because it reveals indigenous strategies of coping, but also informs present-day disaster planners about how people have reacted to past

  2. The response of local residents to a chemical hazard warning: Prediction of behavioral intentions in France, Greece and the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiegman, O.; Komilis, Egli; Cadet, Bernard; Boer, Hendrik; Gutteling, Jan M.

    1993-01-01

    In this study Greek, French and Dutch residents of a hazardous chemical complex were confronted with a simulated warning scenario for an industrial accident and intended functional and dysfunctional behaviours were measured. Intended functional behaviours were poorly predicted by our model, while

  3. Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

    2015-04-01

    Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location

  4. Moving the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability to a Distributed, Portable Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, RW

    2002-09-05

    The Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) has been re-engineered from a Windows application with tight binding between computation and a graphical user interface (GUI) to a new distributed object architecture. The key goals of this new architecture are platform portability, extensibility, deployment flexibility, client-server operations, easy integration with other systems, and support for a new map-based GUI. Selection of Java as the development and runtime environment is the major factor in achieving each of the goals, platform portability in particular. Portability is further enforced by allowing only Java components in the client. Extensibility is achieved via Java's dynamic binding and class loading capabilities and a design by interface approach. HPAC supports deployment on a standalone host, as a heavy client in client-server mode with data stored on the client but calculations performed on the server host, and as a thin client with data and calculations on the server host. The principle architectural element supporting deployment flexibility is the use of Universal Resource Locators (URLs) for all file references. Java WebStart{trademark} is used for thin client deployment. Although there were many choices for the object distribution mechanism, the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) was chosen to support HPAC client server operation. HPAC complies with version 2.0 of the CORBA standard and does not assume support for pass-by-value method arguments. Execution in standalone mode is expedited by having most server objects run in the same process as client objects, thereby bypassing CORBA object transport. HPAC provides four levels for access by other tools and systems, starting with a Windows library providing transport and dispersion (T&D) calculations and output generation, detailed and more abstract sets of CORBA services, and reusable Java components.

  5. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  6. Atmospheric dispersion prediction and source estimation of hazardous gas using artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization and expectation maximization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Sihang; Chen, Bin; Wang, Rongxiao; Zhu, Zhengqiu; Wang, Yuan; Qiu, Xiaogang

    2018-04-01

    Hazardous gas leak accident has posed a potential threat to human beings. Predicting atmospheric dispersion and estimating its source become increasingly important in emergency management. Current dispersion prediction and source estimation models cannot satisfy the requirement of emergency management because they are not equipped with high efficiency and accuracy at the same time. In this paper, we develop a fast and accurate dispersion prediction and source estimation method based on artificial neural network (ANN), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and expectation maximization (EM). The novel method uses a large amount of pre-determined scenarios to train the ANN for dispersion prediction, so that the ANN can predict concentration distribution accurately and efficiently. PSO and EM are applied for estimating the source parameters, which can effectively accelerate the process of convergence. The method is verified by the Indianapolis field study with a SF6 release source. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

  7. Variational data assimilation of satellite observations to estimate volcanic ash emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, S.

    2017-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the

  8. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  9. Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wen Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944 exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault are short.

  10. “Points requiring elucidation” about Hawaiian volcanism: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian volcanoes, which are easily accessed and observed at close range, are among the most studied on the planet and have spurred great advances in the geosciences, from understanding deep Earth processes to forecasting volcanic eruptions. More than a century of continuous observation and study of Hawai‘i's volcanoes has also sharpened focus on those questions that remain unanswered. Although there is good evidence that volcanism in Hawai‘i is the result of a high-temperature upwelling plume from the mantle, the source composition and dynamics of the plume are controversial. Eruptions at the surface build the volcanoes of Hawai‘i, but important topics, including how the volcanoes grow and collapse and how magma is stored and transported, continue to be subjects of intense research. Forecasting volcanic activity is based mostly on pattern recognition, but determining and predicting the nature of eruptions, especially in serving the critical needs of hazards mitigation, require more realistic models and a greater understanding of what drives eruptive activity. These needs may be addressed by better integration among disciplines as well as by developing dynamic physics- and chemistry-based models that more thoroughly relate the physiochemical behavior of Hawaiian volcanism, from the deep Earth to the surface, to geological, geochemical, and geophysical data.

  11. Improved Methods for Predicting Property Prices in Hazard Prone Dynamic Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, Koen; Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung

    Property prices are affected by changing market conditions, incomes and preferences of people. Price trends in natural hazard zones may shift significantly and abruptly after a disaster signalling structural systemic changes in property markets. It challenges accurate market assessments of property

  12. An application of the perpendicular moisture index for the prediction of fire hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maffei, C.; Menenti, M.

    2014-01-01

    Various factors contribute to forest fire hazard, and among them vegetation moisture is the one that dictates susceptibility to fire ignition and propagation. The scientific community has developed a number of spectral indices based on remote sensing measurements in the optical domain for the

  13. Remote sensing estimation of vegetation moisture for the prediction of fire hazard

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maffei, C.; Menenti, M.

    2013-01-01

    Various factors contribute to forest fire hazard, and among them vegetation moisture is the one that dictates susceptibility to fire ignition and propagation. The scientific community has developed a number of spectral indexes based on remote sensing measurements in the optical domain for the

  14. SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

    1997-09-23

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

  15. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  16. Induction and pruning of classification rules for prediction of microseismic hazards in coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, M. [Silesian Technical University, Gliwice (Poland)

    2011-06-15

    The paper presents results of application of a rule induction and pruning algorithm for classification of a microseismic hazard state in coal mines. Due to imbalanced distribution of examples describing states 'hazardous' and 'safe', the special algorithm was used for induction and rule pruning. The algorithm selects optimal parameters' values influencing rule induction and pruning based on training and tuning sets. A rule quality measure which decides about a form and classification abilities of rules that are induced is the basic parameter of the algorithm. The specificity and sensitivity of a classifier were used to evaluate its quality. Conducted tests show that the admitted method of rules induction and classifier's quality evaluation enables to get better results of classification of microseismic hazards than by methods currently used in mining practice. Results obtained by the rules-based classifier were also compared with results got by a decision tree induction algorithm and by a neuro-fuzzy system.

  17. Fluency of pharmaceutical drug names predicts perceived hazardousness, assumed side effects and willingness to buy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohle, Simone; Siegrist, Michael

    2014-10-01

    The impact of pharmaceutical drug names on people's evaluations and behavioural intentions is still uncertain. According to the representativeness heuristic, evaluations should be more positive for complex drug names; in contrast, fluency theory suggests that evaluations should be more positive for simple drug names. Results of three experimental studies showed that complex drug names were perceived as more hazardous than simple drug names and negatively influenced willingness to buy. The results are of particular importance given the fact that there is a worldwide trend to make more drugs available for self-medication. © The Author(s) 2013.

  18. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  19. Chemical agnostic hazard prediction: Statistical inference of toxicity pathways - data for Figure 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset comprises one SigmaPlot 13 file containing measured survival data and survival data predicted from the model coefficients selected by the LASSO...

  20. Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

    2008-01-01

    The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens and presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including

  1. Volcanic features of Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

  2. A new body shape index predicts mortality hazard independently of body mass index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y Krakauer

    Full Text Available Obesity, typically quantified in terms of Body Mass Index (BMI exceeding threshold values, is considered a leading cause of premature death worldwide. For given body size (BMI, it is recognized that risk is also affected by body shape, particularly as a marker of abdominal fat deposits. Waist circumference (WC is used as a risk indicator supplementary to BMI, but the high correlation of WC with BMI makes it hard to isolate the added value of WC.We considered a USA population sample of 14,105 non-pregnant adults (age ≥ 18 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 1999-2004 with follow-up for mortality averaging 5 yr (828 deaths. We developed A Body Shape Index (ABSI based on WC adjusted for height and weight: ABSI ≡ WC/(BMI(2/3height(1/2. ABSI had little correlation with height, weight, or BMI. Death rates increased approximately exponentially with above average baseline ABSI (overall regression coefficient of +33% per standard deviation of ABSI [95% confidence interval: +20%-+48%, whereas elevated death rates were found for both high and low values of BMI and WC. 22% (8%-41% of the population mortality hazard was attributable to high ABSI, compared to 15% (3%-30% for BMI and 15% (4%-29% for WC. The association of death rate with ABSI held even when adjusted for other known risk factors including smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, and serum cholesterol. ABSI correlation with mortality hazard held across the range of age, sex, and BMI, and for both white and black ethnicities (but not for Mexican ethnicity, and was not weakened by excluding deaths from the first 3 yr of follow-up.Body shape, as measured by ABSI, appears to be a substantial risk factor for premature mortality in the general population derivable from basic clinical measurements. ABSI expresses the excess risk from high WC in a convenient form that is complementary to BMI and to other known risk factors.

  3. Predictive teratology: teratogenic risk-hazard identification partnered in the discovery process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Augustine-Rauch, K A

    2008-11-01

    Unexpected teratogenicity is ranked as one of the most prevalent causes for toxicity-related attrition of drug candidates. Without proactive assessment, the liability tends to be identified relatively late in drug development, following significant investment in compound and engagement in pre clinical and clinical studies. When unexpected teratogenicity occurs in pre-clinical development, three principle questions arise: Can clinical trials that include women of child bearing populations be initiated? Will all compounds in this pharmacological class produce the same liability? Could this effect be related to the chemical structure resulting in undesirable off-target adverse effects? The first question is typically addressed at the time of the unexpected finding and involves considering the nature of the teratogenicity, whether or not maternal toxicity could have had a role in onset, human exposure margins and therapeutic indication. The latter two questions can be addressed proactively, earlier in the discovery process as drug target profiling and lead compound optimization is taking place. Such proactive approaches include thorough assessment of the literature for identification of potential liabilities and follow-up work that can be conducted on the level of target expression and functional characterization using molecular biology and developmental model systems. Developmental model systems can also be applied in the form of in vitro teratogenicity screens, and show potential for effective hazard identification or issue resolution on the level of characterizing teratogenic mechanism. This review discusses approaches that can be applied for proactive assessment of compounds for teratogenic liability.

  4. Volcanic Characteristics of Kueishantao in Northeast Taiwan and Their Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Lung Chiu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Kueishantao (KST is a small offshore volcanic island located at the southernmost part of the Okinawa Trough. In this study, we conducted a detailed mapping incorporating the new high resolution LiDAR DTM laser scanning device to accurately construct a volcanic sequence. A new 1/5000 geological map was established. One primary volcanic cone, composed of layers of both lava flows and pyroclastic rocks constituted the major edifice of KST. The other minor volcanic cone, which consists of volcanic lapillis and blocks, is seated to the east of the main cone. The escarped and nearly straight coast in the southern part of the KST indicates that the volcano suffered a large post-volcanic edifice collapse erasing nearly one half of the volume of both volcanic cones. The increase in the abundance of the xenoliths of sedimentary rocks from the lower to the upper part of the volcanic sequence indicates that the formation of volcanic rocks of the KST involved an intensification of crustal contamination. The possibility of volcanic eruption can not be excluded in the future based on the present thermolu¬minescene age data of 7 ka. The associated eruptive ash fall and tsunami induced by the further collapse of the KST volcanic edifice might have great influence to the adjacent inland. Thus, long-term monitoring of volcanic activities around KST should be required for future hazard assessments.

  5. Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Hussein; Olsson, Gert; Magnusson, Magnus; Evander, Magnus; Hörnfeldt, Birger; Ecke, Frauke

    2017-07-26

    To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3-4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly. We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 - year time-series (fall 2003-2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007-2010 and 2015). The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful. Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in

  6. Development of a high-fidelity numerical model for hazard prediction in the urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lien, F.S.; Yee, E.; Ji, H.; Keats, A.; Hsieh, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    The release of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agents by terrorists or rogue states in a North American city (densely populated urban centre) and the subsequent exposure, deposition, and contamination are emerging threats in an uncertain world. The transport, dispersion, deposition, and fate of a CBRN agent released in an urban environment is an extremely complex problem that encompasses potentially multiple space and time scales. The availability of high-fidelity, time-dependent models for the prediction of a CBRN agent's movement and fate in a complex urban environment can provide the strongest technical and scientific foundation for support of Canada's more broadly based effort at advancing counter-terrorism planning and operational capabilities. The objective of this paper is to report the progress of developing and validating an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale, multi-physics modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool required to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions (based on the strongest technical and scientific foundations) in order to minimize the consequences of a CBRN incident based on a pre-determined decision making framework. (author)

  7. eVADE: Volcanic Ash Detection Raman LIDAR, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

  8. Volcanic Ash Detection Using Raman LIDAR: "VADER", Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

  9. A comparative analysis of hazard models for predicting debris flows in Madison County, VA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrissey, Meghan M.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Morgan, Benjamin A.

    2001-01-01

    During the rainstorm of June 27, 1995, roughly 330-750 mm of rain fell within a sixteen-hour period, initiating floods and over 600 debris flows in a small area (130 km2) of Madison County, Virginia. Field studies showed that the majority (70%) of these debris flows initiated with a thickness of 0.5 to 3.0 m in colluvium on slopes from 17 o to 41 o (Wieczorek et al., 2000). This paper evaluated and compared the approaches of SINMAP, LISA, and Iverson's (2000) transient response model for slope stability analysis by applying each model to the landslide data from Madison County. Of these three stability models, only Iverson's transient response model evaluated stability conditions as a function of time and depth. Iverson?s model would be the preferred method of the three models to evaluate landslide hazards on a regional scale in areas prone to rain-induced landslides as it considers both the transient and spatial response of pore pressure in its calculation of slope stability. The stability calculation used in SINMAP and LISA is similar and utilizes probability distribution functions for certain parameters. Unlike SINMAP that only considers soil cohesion, internal friction angle and rainfall-rate distributions, LISA allows the use of distributed data for all parameters, so it is the preferred model to evaluate slope stability over SINMAP. Results from all three models suggested similar soil and hydrologic properties for triggering the landslides that occurred during the 1995 storm in Madison County, Virginia. The colluvium probably had cohesion of less than 2KPa. The root-soil system is above the failure plane and consequently root strength and tree surcharge had negligible effect on slope stability. The result that the final location of the water table was near the ground surface is supported by the water budget analysis of the rainstorm conducted by Smith et al. (1996).

  10. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  11. A Dynamic Hydrology-Critical Zone Framework for Rainfall-triggered Landslide Hazard Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dialynas, Y. G.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Bras, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    Watershed-scale coupled hydrologic-stability models are still in their early stages, and are characterized by important limitations: (a) either they assume steady-state or quasi-dynamic watershed hydrology, or (b) they simulate landslide occurrence based on a simple one-dimensional stability criterion. Here we develop a three-dimensional landslide prediction framework, based on a coupled hydrologic-slope stability model and incorporation of the influence of deep critical zone processes (i.e., flow through weathered bedrock and exfiltration to the colluvium) for more accurate prediction of the timing, location, and extent of landslides. Specifically, a watershed-scale slope stability model that systematically accounts for the contribution of driving and resisting forces in three-dimensional hillslope segments was coupled with a spatially-explicit and physically-based hydrologic model. The landslide prediction framework considers critical zone processes and structure, and explicitly accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of surface and subsurface properties that control slope stability, including soil and weathered bedrock hydrological and mechanical characteristics, vegetation, and slope morphology. To test performance, the model was applied in landslide-prone sites in the US, the hydrology of which has been extensively studied. Results showed that both rainfall infiltration in the soil and groundwater exfiltration exert a strong control on the timing and magnitude of landslide occurrence. We demonstrate the extent to which three-dimensional slope destabilizing factors, which are modulated by dynamic hydrologic conditions in the soil-bedrock column, control landslide initiation at the watershed scale.

  12. Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

    2009-01-01

    In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

  13. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Raphaël

    2015-10-28

    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

  14. Logistic Regression for Seismically Induced Landslide Predictions: Using Uniform Hazard and Geophysical Layers as Predictor Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowicki, M. A.; Hearne, M.; Thompson, E.; Wald, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Seismically induced landslides present a costly and often fatal threats in many mountainous regions. Substantial effort has been invested to understand where seismically induced landslides may occur in the future. Both slope-stability methods and, more recently, statistical approaches to the problem are described throughout the literature. Though some regional efforts have succeeded, no uniformly agreed-upon method is available for predicting the likelihood and spatial extent of seismically induced landslides. For use in the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, we would like to routinely make such estimates, in near-real time, around the globe. Here we use the recently produced USGS ShakeMap Atlas of historic earthquakes to develop an empirical landslide probability model. We focus on recent events, yet include any digitally-mapped landslide inventories for which well-constrained ShakeMaps are also available. We combine these uniform estimates of the input shaking (e.g., peak acceleration and velocity) with broadly available susceptibility proxies, such as topographic slope and surface geology. The resulting database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence with logistic regression. The landslide database includes observations from the Northridge, California (1994); Wenchuan, China (2008); ChiChi, Taiwan (1999); and Chuetsu, Japan (2004) earthquakes; we also provide ShakeMaps for moderate-sized events without landslide for proper model testing and training. The performance of the regression model is assessed with both statistical goodness-of-fit metrics and a qualitative review of whether or not the model is able to capture the spatial extent of landslides for each event. Part of our goal is to determine which variables can be employed based on globally-available data or proxies, and whether or not modeling results from one region are transferrable to

  15. Friction in volcanic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Jackie E.; Lavallée, Yan

    2016-04-01

    to eruption behaviour and during ascent magma behaves in an increasingly rock-like manner as it degasses and crystallises. This character aids the development of shear zones in the conduit, producing fault surfaces that host gouge, cataclasite and pseudotachylyte and which control the last hundreds of meters of ascent by frictional slip. Recent work has shown that the occurrence of vesiculation of gas bubbles modifies the rheology of frictional melt and in extreme cases can trigger eruption style to switch from effusive to explosive activity. Hence it is of vital importance to recognise the frictional behaviour of volcanic rocks and magmas to understand the continuation of an eruption and associated hazards.

  16. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wittenberg, Andrew; Zeng, Fanrong

    2009-01-01

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean

  17. Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

    2014-05-01

    In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

  18. State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of tectonism and volcanism on a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    Most estimates of the time required for safe isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 years. For such long time spans, it is necessary to assess the potential effects of geologic processes such as volcanism and tectonic activity on the integrity of geologic repositories. Predictions of geologic phenomena can be based on probabilistic models, which assume a random distribution of events. The necessary historic and geologic records are rarely available to provide an adequate data base for such predictions. The observed distribution of volcanic and tectonic activity is not random, and appears to be controlled by extremely complex deterministic processes. The advent of global plate tectonic theory in the past two decades has been a giant step toward understanding these processes. At each potential repository site, volcanic and tectonic processes should be evaluated to provide the most thorough possible understanding of those deterministic processes. Based on this knowledge, judgements will have to be made as to whether or not the volcanic and tectonic processes pose unacceptable risk to the integrity of the repository. This report describes the potential hazards associated with volcanism and tectonism, and the means for evaluating these processes

  19. A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

  20. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  1. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    headquarters until 9 p.m.: families, school classes with and without teachers, civil protection groups, journalists. This initiative, built up in a few weeks, had a very large feedback, also due to the media highlighting the presumed prediction. Although we could not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake in central Italy (with effects in Rome) we tried to explain the meaning of short term earthquake prediction vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Despite many people remained with the fear (many decided to take a day off and leave the town or stay in public parks), we contributed to reduce this feeling and therefore the social cost of this strange Roman day. Moreover, another lesson learned is that these (fortunately sporadic) circumstances, when people's attention is high, are important opportunities for science communication. We thank all the INGV colleagues who contributed to the May 11 Open Day, in particular the Press Office, the Educational and Outreach laboratory, the Graphics Laboratory and SissaMedialab. P.S. no large earthquake happened

  2. Local and remote infrasound from explosive volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matoza, R. S.; Fee, D.; LE Pichon, A.

    2014-12-01

    Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large volumes of ash into heavily travelled air corridors and thus pose a significant societal and economic hazard. In remote volcanic regions, satellite data are sometimes the only technology available to observe volcanic eruptions and constrain ash-release parameters for aviation safety. Infrasound (acoustic waves ~0.01-20 Hz) data fill this critical observational gap, providing ground-based data for remote volcanic eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most powerful sources of infrasound observed on earth, with recordings routinely made at ranges of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Advances in infrasound technology and the efficient propagation of infrasound in the atmosphere therefore greatly enhance our ability to monitor volcanoes in remote regions such as the North Pacific Ocean. Infrasound data can be exploited to detect, locate, and provide detailed chronologies of the timing of explosive volcanic eruptions for use in ash transport and dispersal models. We highlight results from case studies of multiple eruptions recorded by the International Monitoring System and dedicated regional infrasound networks (2008 Kasatochi, Alaska, USA; 2008 Okmok, Alaska, USA; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kuriles, Russian Federation; 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Icleand) and show how infrasound is currently used in volcano monitoring. We also present progress towards characterizing and modeling the variability in source mechanisms of infrasound from explosive eruptions using dedicated local infrasound field deployments at volcanoes Karymsky, Russian Federation and Sakurajima, Japan.

  3. Imaging volcanic CO2 and SO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrieli, A.; Wright, R.; Lucey, P. G.; Porter, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Detecting and quantifying volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions is of relevance to volcanologists. Changes in the amount and composition of gases that volcanoes emit are related to subsurface magma movements and the probability of eruptions. Volcanic gases and related acidic aerosols are also an important atmospheric pollution source that create environmental health hazards for people, animals, plants, and infrastructures. For these reasons, it is important to measure emissions from volcanic plumes during both day and night. We present image measurements of the volcanic plume at Kīlauea volcano, HI, and flux derivation, using a newly developed 8-14 um hyperspectral imaging spectrometer, the Thermal Hyperspectral Imager (THI). THI is capable of acquiring images of the scene it views from which spectra can be derived from each pixel. Each spectrum contains 50 wavelength samples between 8 and 14 um where CO2 and SO2 volcanic gases have diagnostic absorption/emission features respectively at 8.6 and 14 um. Plume radiance measurements were carried out both during the day and the night by using both the lava lake in the Halema'uma'u crater as a hot source and the sky as a cold background to detect respectively the spectral signatures of volcanic CO2 and SO2 gases. CO2 and SO2 path-concentrations were then obtained from the spectral radiance measurements using a new Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)-based inversion algorithm, which was developed as part of this project. Volcanic emission fluxes were determined by combining the path measurements with wind observations, derived directly from the images. Several hours long time-series of volcanic emission fluxes will be presented and the SO2 conversion rates into aerosols will be discussed. The new imaging and inversion technique, discussed here, are novel allowing for continuous CO2 and SO2 plume mapping during both day and night.

  4. Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathnur, Ashwini

    2017-04-01

    " positives. Cost - free data made available. Minimum band - width problem. Rapid communication system. Validation and Requirements of the New products of the Remote Sensing instruments The qualities of the existing products would be present in the new products also. Along with these qualities, newly devised additional qualities are also required in order to build an advanced remote sensing instrument. The new additional requirements are mentioned below:- Review Comment Number 1 Enlarging the spatial resolution so that the volcanic plumes erupting from the early volcanic eruption is captured by the remote sensing instrument. This spatial resolution data capture would involve better video and camera facilities on the remote sensing instrument. Review Comment Number 2 Capturing the traces of carbon, carbonic acid and water vapour, along with the existing product's capture of sulphur dioxide and volcanic Ash. Review Comment Number 3 Creating an additional module in the instrument to derive the functionality of forecasting a volcanic eruption. This new forecast model should be able to predict the occurrences of volcanic eruption several months in advance. This is basically to create mechanisms for providing early solutions to the problems of mitigation of volcanic hazards. Review Comment Number 4 Creating additional features in the remote sensing instrument to enable the automatic transfer of forecasted eruptions of volcanoes, to the disaster relief operations team. This transfer of information is to be performed automatically, without any request raised from the relief operations team, for the predicted forecast information. This is for the purpose of receiving the information at the right - time, thus eliminating any possibility of occurrences of errors during hazard management.

  5. Levels of and changes in life satisfaction predict mortality hazards: Disentangling the role of physical health, perceived control, and social orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülür, Gizem; Heckhausen, Jutta; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Infurna, Frank J; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2017-09-01

    It is well documented that well-being typically evinces precipitous decrements at the end of life. However, research has primarily taken a postdictive approach by knowing the outcome (date of death) and aligning, in retrospect, how well-being has changed for people with documented death events. In the present study, we made use of a predictive approach by examining whether and how levels of and changes in life satisfaction prospectively predict mortality hazards and delineate the role of contributing factors, including health, perceived control, and social orientation. To do so, we applied shared parameter growth-survival models to 20-year longitudinal data from 10,597 participants (n = 1,560 [15%] deceased; age at baseline: M = 44 years, SD = 17, range = 18-98 years) from the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study. Our findings showed that lower levels and steeper declines of life satisfaction each uniquely predicted higher mortality risks. Results also revealed moderating effects of age and perceived control: Life satisfaction levels and changes had stronger predictive effects for mortality hazards among older adults. Perceived control was associated with lower mortality hazards; however, this effect was diminished for those who experienced accelerated life satisfaction decline. Variance decomposition suggests that predictive effects of life satisfaction trajectories were partially unique (3%-6%) and partially shared with physical health, perceived control, and social orientation (17%-19%). Our discussion focuses on the strengths and challenges of a predictive approach to link developmental changes (in life satisfaction) to mortality hazards, and considers implications of our findings for healthy aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

    2009-05-01

    Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

  7. Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

    2010-01-01

    Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

  8. Observation of the volcanic plume of Eyjafjallajoekull over continental Europe by MAX-DOAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, S.; Bobrowski, N.; Friess, U.; Platt, U. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); Flentje, H. [DWD, Hohenpeissenberg (Germany); Hoermann, C.; Sihler, H. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); MPI, Mainz (Germany); Kern, C. [USGS, Vancouver (Canada); Wagner, T. [MPI, Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    The recent eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull Volcano (Iceland) and the emitted ash plume which disrupted commercial air traffic over Europe has led to an exhaustive debate on how to improve our ability to quantitatively determine the ash load in the atmosphere as a function of time and geographical location. Satellite instruments detecting ash and SO{sub 2} and ground-based LIDAR stations can help constrain atmospheric transport and meteorology models used to predict ash dispersion. However, MAX-DOAS represents an additional tool with considerable potential for the quantitative detection of elevated volcanic ash and SO{sub 2} plumes. It performs especially well during weather conditions in which satellites and LIDARs are impeded in their effectiveness, e.g. in the case of dense clouds above or below the plume, respectively. Here, the advantages and disadvantages of the DOAS technique are discussed, and its potential for monitoring of volcanic ash hazards explored. Results of ash and SO{sub 2} measurements of the Eyjafjallajoekull plume as it passed over Heidelberg are presented as an example of a positive detection of a highly diluted volcanic plume. Their low cost and complementary nature makes MAX-DOAS a promising technology in the field of aviation hazard detection and management.

  9. Evaluation of model-predicted hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) near a mid-sized U.S. airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vennam, Lakshmi Pradeepa; Vizuete, William; Arunachalam, Saravanan

    2015-10-01

    Accurate modeling of aircraft-emitted pollutants in the vicinity of airports is essential to study the impact on local air quality and to answer policy and health-impact related issues. To quantify air quality impacts of airport-related hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), we carried out a fine-scale (4 × 4 km horizontal resolution) Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) model simulation at the T.F. Green airport in Providence (PVD), Rhode Island. We considered temporally and spatially resolved aircraft emissions from the new Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). These model predictions were then evaluated with observations from a field campaign focused on assessing HAPs near the PVD airport. The annual normalized mean error (NME) was in the range of 36-70% normalized mean error for all HAPs except for acrolein (>70%). The addition of highly resolved aircraft emissions showed only marginally incremental improvements in performance (1-2% decrease in NME) of some HAPs (formaldehyde, xylene). When compared to a coarser 36 × 36 km grid resolution, the 4 × 4 km grid resolution did improve performance by up to 5-20% NME for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde. The change in power setting (from traditional International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 7% to observation studies based 4%) doubled the aircraft idling emissions of HAPs, but led to only a 2% decrease in NME. Overall modeled aircraft-attributable contributions are in the range of 0.5-28% near a mid-sized airport grid-cell with maximum impacts seen only within 4-16 km from the airport grid-cell. Comparison of CMAQ predictions with HAP estimates from EPA's National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) did show similar annual mean concentrations and equally poor performance. Current estimates of HAPs for PVD are a challenge for modeling systems and refinements in our ability to simulate aircraft emissions have made only incremental improvements. Even with unrealistic increases in HAPs aviation emissions the model

  10. Paleomagnetically inferred ages of a cluster of Holocene monogenetic eruptions in the Tacámbaro-Puruarán area (Michoacán, México): Implications for volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahgoub, Ahmed Nasser; Böhnel, Harald; Siebe, Claus; Salinas, Sergio; Guilbaud, Marie-Noëlle

    2017-11-01

    The paleomagnetic dating procedure was applied to a cluster of four partly overlapping monogenetic Holocene volcanoes and associated lava flows, namely La Tinaja, La Palma, Mesa La Muerta, and Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro, located in the Tacámbaro-Puruarán area, at the southeastern margin of the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field. For this purpose, 21 sites distributed as far apart as possible from each other were sampled to obtain a well-averaged mean paleomagnetic direction for each single lava flow. For intensity determinations, double-heating Thellier experiments using the IZZI protocol were conducted on 55 selected samples. La Tinaja is the oldest of these flows and was dated by the 14C method at 5115 ± 130 years BP (cal 4184-3655 BCE). It is stratigraphically underneath the other three flows with Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro lava flow being the youngest. The paleomagnetic dating procedure was applied using the Matlab archaeo-dating tool in couple with the geomagnetic field model SHA.DIF.14k. Accordingly, for La Tinaja several possible age ranges were obtained, of which the range 3650-3480 BCE is closest to the 14C age. Paleomagnetic dating on La Palma produced a unique age range of 3220-2880 BCE. Two ages ranges of 2240-2070 BCE and 760-630 BCE were obtained for Mesa La Muerta and a well-constrained age of 420-320 BCE for Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro. Although systematic archaeological excavations have so far not been carried out in this area, it is possible that the younger eruptions were contemporary to local human occupation. Our paleomagnetic dates indicate that all four eruptions, although closely clustered in space, occurred separately in time with varying recurrence intervals ranging between 300 and 2300 years. This finding should be considered when constraining the nature of the magmatic plumbing system and developing a strategy aimed at reducing risk in the volcanically active Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field, where several young monogenetic volcano

  11. Volcanism on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley Gerard

    2014-03-01

    Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

  12. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  13. Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1998-01-01

    This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

  14. A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

  15. Use of short-term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glass, L.R.; Jones, T.D.; Easterly, C.E.; Walsh, P.J.

    1990-10-01

    It has been hypothesized that results from short-term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Historically, the validity of the short-term tests has been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long-term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used to assist in isolating those compounds which may represent a more significant toxicologic hazard than others. In contrast, the goal of this research is to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short-term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation. Chemicals were selected mostly from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC); a few other chemicals commonly recognized as hazardous were included. Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on 52 chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short-term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short-term tests systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may contribute to increased carcinogenesis in humans as a result of occupational or environmental exposures. 177 refs., 8 tabs

  16. Use of short-term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glass, L.R.; Jones, T.D.; Easterly, C.E.; Walsh, P.J.

    1990-10-01

    It has been hypothesized that results from short-term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Historically, the validity of the short-term tests has been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long-term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used to assist in isolating those compounds which may represent a more significant toxicologic hazard than others. In contrast, the goal of this research is to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short-term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation. Chemicals were selected mostly from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC); a few other chemicals commonly recognized as hazardous were included. Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on 52 chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short-term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short-term tests systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may contribute to increased carcinogenesis in humans as a result of occupational or environmental exposures. 177 refs., 8 tabs.

  17. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Vinicius M. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Muratov, Eugene [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Laboratory of Theoretical Chemistry, A.V. Bogatsky Physical-Chemical Institute NAS of Ukraine, Odessa 65080 (Ukraine); Fourches, Denis [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole [ILS/Contractor Supporting the NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM), P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Andrade, Carolina H. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Tropsha, Alexander, E-mail: alex_tropsha@unc.edu [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using Random Forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers was 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR Toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the Scorecard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin sensitization dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin sensitization. • Developed models have higher prediction accuracy than OECD QSAR Toolbox. • Putative

  18. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using Random Forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers was 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR Toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the Scorecard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin sensitization dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin sensitization. • Developed models have higher prediction accuracy than OECD QSAR Toolbox. • Putative

  19. The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

  20. Volcanic Rocks and Features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanoes have contributed significantly to the formation of the surface of our planet. Volcanism produced the crust we live on and most of the air we breathe. The...

  1. Martian volcanism: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carr, M.H.

    1987-01-01

    Martian volcanism is reviewed. It is emphasized that lava plains constitute the major type of effusive flow, and can be differentiated by morphologic characteristics. Shield volcanoes, domes, and patera constitute the major constructional landforms, and recent work has suggested that explosive activity and resulting pyroclastic deposits may have been involved with formation of some of the small shields. Analysis of morphology, presumed composition, and spectroscopic data all indicate that Martian volcanism was dominantly basaltic in composition

  2. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  3. LAV@HAZARD: a Web-GIS Framework for Real-Time Forecasting of Lava Flow Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.

    2014-12-01

    Crucial to lava flow hazard assessment is the development of tools for real-time prediction of flow paths, flow advance rates, and final flow lengths. Accurate prediction of flow paths and advance rates requires not only rapid assessment of eruption conditions (especially effusion rate) but also improved models of lava flow emplacement. Here we present the LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, which combines spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations for real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards. By using satellite-derived discharge rates to drive a lava flow emplacement model, LAV@HAZARD allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We take advantage of the flexibility of the HOTSAT thermal monitoring system to process satellite images coming from sensors with different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions. HOTSAT was designed to ingest infrared satellite data acquired by the MODIS and SEVIRI sensors to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux and discharge rate. We use LAV@HAZARD to merge this output with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths and to update, in a timely manner, flow simulations. Thus, any significant changes in lava discharge rate are included in the predictions. A significant benefit in terms of computational speed was obtained thanks to the parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs). All this useful information has been gathered into the LAV@HAZARD platform which, due to the high degree of interactivity, allows generation of easily readable maps and a fast way to explore alternative scenarios. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this framework using a variety of case studies pertaining to Mt Etna, Sicily. Although this study was conducted on Mt Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas around the world.

  4. Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

    1995-07-01

    In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

  5. A Comparison of Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software Dose-Rate Contour Plots to a Sample of Local Fallout Data From Test Detonations in the Continental United States, 1945 - 1962

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chancellor, Richard W

    2005-01-01

    A comparison of Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software dose-rate contour plots to a sample of local nuclear fallout data from test detonations in the continental United States, 1945 - 1962, is performed...

  6. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  7. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches; Modelisation de la rupture sismique, prediction du mouvement fort, et evaluation de l'alea sismique: approches fondamentale et appliquee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berge-Thierry, C

    2007-05-15

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  8. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms—the hazards considered in this plan. There are numerous other hazards of societal importance that are considered either only peripherally or not at all in this Strategy because they are either in another of the USGS strategic science plans (such as drought) or not in the overall mission of the USGS (such as tornados).

  9. Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Scollo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV. The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii running models of tephra dispersal, iii plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

  10. Estimation of volcanic ash emissions using trajectory-based 4D-Var data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, S.; Lin, X.; Heemink, A.W.; Fu, G.; Segers, A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore,

  11. Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

    2014-06-01

    The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

  12. Using faults for PSHA in a volcanic context: the Etna case (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Gee, Robin; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    At Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy), recurrent volcano-tectonic earthquakes affect the urbanised areas, with an overall population of about 400,000 and with important infrastructures and lifelines. For this reason, seismic hazard analyses have been undertaken in the last decade focusing on the capability of local faults to generate damaging earthquakes especially in the short-term (30-5 yrs); these results have to be intended as complementary to the regulatory seismic hazard maps, and devoted to establish priority in the seismic retrofitting of the exposed municipalities. Starting from past experience, in the framework of the V3 Project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Defense we performed a fully probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by using an original definition of seismic sources and ground-motion prediction equations specifically derived for this volcanic area; calculations are referred to a new brand topographic surface (Mt. Etna reaches more than 3,000 m in elevation, in less than 20 km from the coast), and to both Poissonian and time-dependent occurrence models. We present at first the process of defining seismic sources that includes individual faults, seismic zones and gridded seismicity; they are obtained by integrating geological field data with long-term (the historical macroseismic catalogue) and short-term earthquake data (the instrumental catalogue). The analysis of the Frequency Magnitude Distribution identifies areas in the volcanic complex, with a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship representative of different dynamic processes. Then, we discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults estimated by using a purely geologic approach. This analysis has been carried out through the software code FISH, a Matlab® tool developed to turn fault data representative of the seismogenic process into hazard models. The utilization of a magnitude-size scaling relationship

  13. Volcanic Infrasound - A technical topic communicated in an entertaining way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlow, Isaac

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic Infrasound is a 9-minute film about using infrasound waves to detect and measure volcanic eruptions as they unfold. The film was made by an interdisciplinary team of filmmakers and scientists for a general audience. The movie explains the basic facts of using infrasound to detect volcanic activity, and it also shows volcano researchers as they install infrasound sensors in a natural reserve in the middle of the city. This is the first in a series of films that seek to address natural hazards of relevance to Singapore, a country shielded from violent hazards. This presentation reviews the science communication techniques and assumptions used to develop and produce this entertaining scientific documentary short. Trailer: https://vimeo.com/192206460

  14. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk"? submarine study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

    2003-03-01

    There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 1011 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  15. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

    2003-06-01

    There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  16. Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: 'Kursk' submarine study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baklanov

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.. Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1 probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2 forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

  17. Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, M.

    2009-04-01

    The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

  18. Global time-size distribution of volcanic eruptions on Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papale, Paolo

    2018-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions differ enormously in their size and impacts, ranging from quiet lava flow effusions along the volcano flanks to colossal events with the potential to affect our entire civilization. Knowledge of the time and size distribution of volcanic eruptions is of obvious relevance for understanding the dynamics and behavior of the Earth system, as well as for defining global volcanic risk. From the analysis of recent global databases of volcanic eruptions extending back to more than 2 million years, I show here that the return times of eruptions with similar magnitude follow an exponential distribution. The associated relative frequency of eruptions with different magnitude displays a power law, scale-invariant distribution over at least six orders of magnitude. These results suggest that similar mechanisms subtend to explosive eruptions from small to colossal, raising concerns on the theoretical possibility to predict the magnitude and impact of impending volcanic eruptions.

  19. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Outstanding Research Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan

    2016-04-01

    Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. Based on observations after major eruptions of the past and experiments with numerical models of the climate system, we understand much about their climatic impact, but there are also a number of unanswered questions. Volcanic eruptions produce global cooling, and are an important natural cause of interannual, interdecadal, and even centennial-scale climate change. One of the most interesting volcanic effects is the "winter warming" of Northern Hemisphere continents following major tropical eruptions. During the winter in the Northern Hemisphere following every large tropical eruption of the past century, surface air temperatures over North America, Europe, and East Asia were warmer than normal, while they were colder over Greenland and the Middle East. This pattern and the coincident atmospheric circulation correspond to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While this response is observed after recent major eruptions, most state-of-the-art climate models have trouble simulating winter warming. Why? High latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, while also producing global cooling, do not have the same impact on atmospheric dynamics. Both tropical and high latitude eruptions can weaken the Indian and African summer monsoon, and the effects can be seen in past records of flow in the Nile and Niger Rivers. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade have had a small effect on global temperature trends. Some important outstanding research questions include: How much seasonal, annual, and decadal predictability is possible following a large volcanic eruption? Do

  20. Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chemicals can still harm human health and the environment. When you throw these substances away, they become hazardous waste. Some hazardous wastes come from products in our homes. Our garbage can include such hazardous wastes as old batteries, bug spray cans and paint thinner. U.S. residents ...

  1. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Greco

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS, namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  2. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Roberto; Pagano, Luca

    2017-12-01

    To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  3. Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2010-01-01

    The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption.

  4. Fluids in volcanic and geothermal systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigvaldason, Gudmundur E.

    Mineral buffers control the composition of most volatile components of magmas and dissolved species in geothermal fluids. The only element which occurs in significant quantities in volcanic and geothermal fluids and is not controlled by mineral buffers is chlorine. It is argued that in absence of marine influence, geothermal fluids reflect the chlorine content of associated magmatic fluids. The chlorine content of oceanic volcanic rocks has a positive correlation with elements, which are believed to indicate a heterogenous source region. Since the source is generally believed to be the Earth's mantle, the implication is that the mantle is heterogenous with regard to chlorine and other volatiles. Such heterogeneities would have important consequences for genesis and distribution of ore. All major magma types of the oceanic environment occur in Iceland. Their spatial distribution is closely related to a volcanotectonic pattern, suggesting crustal control. A geophysical model of crustal accretion in a rift zone is used in conjunction with classical petrology to predict geochemical processes in a rift zone crust. The model has two kinematic parameters-drift rate and subsidence rate-which combined describe trajectories of mass particles deposited on the surface. When considering in conjunction with thermal gradients of the rift zone a series of metamorphic reactions and chemical fractionation processes are bound to occur, eventually resulting in a layering of the oceanic crust. The physical parameters result in a derived variable, rift zone residence time, which depends on the width of a rift zone. Long residence times in a wide rift zone lead to multistage recycling of material. Other properties of the model, based on geometric arrangement of productive fissure swarms within a rift zone, explain off-rift volcanism as directly related to rift zone processes, either as plate trapped magmatic domains or a transgressive thermal anomaly into an older crust. Off

  5. Predictive modeling of hazardous waste landfill total above-ground biomass using passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Brian Christopher

    This dissertation assessed remotely sensed data and geospatial modeling technique(s) to map the spatial distribution of total above-ground biomass present on the surface of the Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) hazardous waste landfill. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, regression kriging, and tree-structured regression were employed to model the empirical relationship between in-situ measured Bahia (Paspalum notatum Flugge) and Centipede [Eremochloa ophiuroides (Munro) Hack.] grass biomass against an assortment of explanatory variables extracted from fine spatial resolution passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data. Explanatory variables included: (1) discrete channels of visible, near-infrared (NIR), and short-wave infrared (SWIR) reflectance, (2) spectral vegetation indices (SVI), (3) spectral mixture analysis (SMA) modeled fractions, (4) narrow-band derivative-based vegetation indices, and (5) LIDAR derived topographic variables (i.e. elevation, slope, and aspect). Results showed that a linear combination of the first- (1DZ_DGVI), second- (2DZ_DGVI), and third-derivative of green vegetation indices (3DZ_DGVI) calculated from hyperspectral data recorded over the 400--960 nm wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum explained the largest percentage of statistical variation (R2 = 0.5184) in the total above-ground biomass measurements. In general, the topographic variables did not correlate well with the MWMF biomass data, accounting for less than five percent of the statistical variation. It was concluded that tree-structured regression represented the optimum geospatial modeling technique due to a combination of model performance and efficiency/flexibility factors.

  6. Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

    2018-05-09

    Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

  7. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using random forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers were 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the ScoreCard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. PMID:25560674

  8. Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshida, Kiyoshi

    2010-01-01

    Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

  9. Predictive diagnosis of radiation hazard and therapeutic sensitivity by polymorphic marker. Individualized dedicare standing on genome diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imai, Takashi

    2009-01-01

    In the field of cancer treatment, genome analysis can contribute to individualized medicare. For the purpose of practical application of the analysis in clinic, the author and coworkers have studied the relationships between the SNP on 118 candidate genetic regions related with radiation sensitivity and late effect of carbon ion radiotherapy (CIR), dysuria, in patients with prostate cancer, of which process and result hitherto are presented here. Subjects are 197 patients, most of whom were enrolled in the phase II clinical trial, and 227 healthy volunteers. Patients received CIR with total dose of 66.0 GyE at 20 fr./5 weeks, and were divided in two groups of the training 132 cases (grade 0 and 1 dysuria 3 months after CIR was observed in 109 and 23 cases, respectively), and subsequent test 65 cases (grade 0 and 1 or more, 56 and 9) for prediction. In the training set, analysis of AUC-ROC (area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic) revealed that 5 SNP markers of SART1, ID3, EPDR1, PAH and XRCC6 among analyzed genes were correlated with the dysuria. The prediction was shown to be true in the test set. In total 32 patients with the dysuria, 29 cases (90.6%) were found to have more than 3 risk genotypes above. Analysis in the whole patients thus revealed that there were about 30% of false positive cases, but 11.5% of them were found to have the late effect 6 months after CIR. Thus, genomic diagnosis will be a much more useful tool for individualized medicare not only in prediction of the late effect risk described here but also in selection of therapeutic modality involving the heavy ion radiotherapy. (K.T.)

  10. The California Hazards Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

  11. Backprojection of volcanic tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haney, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    Backprojection has become a powerful tool for imaging the rupture process of global earthquakes. We demonstrate the ability of backprojection to illuminate and track volcanic sources as well. We apply the method to the seismic network from Okmok Volcano, Alaska, at the time of an escalation in tremor during the 2008 eruption. Although we are able to focus the wavefield close to the location of the active cone, the network array response lacks sufficient resolution to reveal kilometer-scale changes in tremor location. By deconvolving the response in successive backprojection images, we enhance resolution and find that the tremor source moved toward an intracaldera lake prior to its escalation. The increased tremor therefore resulted from magma-water interaction, in agreement with the overall phreatomagmatic character of the eruption. Imaging of eruption tremor shows that time reversal methods, such as backprojection, can provide new insights into the temporal evolution of volcanic sources.

  12. Volcanic eruptions on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strom, R. G.; Schneider, N. M.; Terrile, R. J.; Hansen, C.; Cook, A. F.

    1981-01-01

    Nine eruption plumes which were observed during the Voyager 1 encounter with Io are discussed. During the Voyager 2 encounter, four months later, eight of the eruptions were still active although the largest became inactive sometime between the two encounters. Plumes range in height from 60 to over 300 km with corresponding ejection velocities of 0.5 to 1.0 km/s and plume sources are located on several plains and consist of fissures or calderas. The shape and brightness distribution together with the pattern of the surface deposition on a plume 3 is simulated by a ballistic model with a constant ejection velocity of 0.5 km/s and ejection angles which vary from 0-55 deg. The distribution of active and recent eruptions is concentrated in the equatorial regions and indicates that volcanic activity is more frequent and intense in the equatorial regions than in the polar regions. Due to the geologic setting of certain plume sources and large reservoirs of volatiles required for the active eruptions, it is concluded that sulfur volcanism rather than silicate volcanism is the most likely driving mechanism for the eruption plumes.

  13. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to

  14. Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

  15. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peruzza, Laura; Azzaro, Raffaele; Gee, Robin; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Pace, Bruno; Pagani, Marco; Panzera, Francesco; Ordaz, Mario; Suarez, Miguel Leonardo; Tusa, Giuseppina

    2017-11-01

    This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017) and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude-scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014). Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent) and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M > 6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M risk reduction.

  16. The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeg, O.

    Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

  17. Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

  18. Identification and hazard prediction of tattoo pigments by means of pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiver, Ines; Hutzler, Christoph; Andree, Sarah; Laux, Peter; Luch, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    The implementation of regulation for tattoo ink ingredients across Europe has generated the need for analytical methods suitable to identify prohibited compounds. Common challenges of this subject are the poor solubility and the lack of volatility for most pigments and polymers applied in tattoo inks. Here, we present pyrolysis coupled to online gas chromatography and electron impact ionization mass spectrometry (py-GC/MS) as quick and reliable tool for pigment identification using both purified pigments and tattoo ink formulations. Some 36 organic pigments frequently used in tattoo inks were subjected to py-GC/MS with the aim to establish a pyrogram library. To cross-validate pigment identification, 28 commercially available tattoo inks as well as 18 self-made pigment mixtures were analyzed. Pyrograms of inks and mixtures were evaluated by two different means to work out the most reliable and fastest strategy for an otherwise rather time-consuming data review. Using this approach, the declaration of tattoo pigments currently used on the market could be verified. The pyrolysis library presented here is also assumed suitable to predict decomposition patterns of pigments when affected by other degradation scenarios, such as sunlight exposure or laser irradiation. Thus, the consumers' risk associated with the exposure to toxicologically relevant substances that originate from pigment decomposition in the dermal layers of the skin can be assessed. Differentiation between more or less harmful pigments for this field of application now will become feasible.

  19. Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

  20. Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

    2014-05-01

    The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

  1. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  2. Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

    1995-02-01

    Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

  3. Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

    1995-02-01

    Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

  4. Radiation hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, L.

    1979-01-01

    On a scientific basis and with the aid of realistic examples, the author gives a popular introduction to an understanding and judgment of the public discussion over radiation hazards: Uses and hazards of X-ray examinations, biological radiation effects, civilisation risks in comparison, origins and explanation of radiation protection regulations. (orig.) [de

  5. Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

  6. ASH REDISTRIBUTION FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. Pelletier; S. deLong; M.L. Cline; C. Harrington; G. Keating

    2005-01-01

    The redistribution of contaminated tephra by hillslope, fluvial, and pedologic processes is a poorly-constrained but important aspect of evaluating the radiological dose from an unlikely volcanic eruption at Yucca Mountain (YM). To better evaluate this hazard, we developed a spatially distributed, numerical model of tephra redistribution that integrates contaminated tephra from hill slopes and active channels, mixes it with clean sediment in the channel system, distributes it on the fan, and migrates it into the soil column. The model is coupled with an atmospheric dispersion model that predicts the deposition of radioactive waste-contaminated tephra at specified grid points. The redistribution model begins in the upper Fortymile Wash drainage basin where it integrates the tephra deposited on steep slopes and active channel beds within a GIS framework. The Fortymile Wash drainage basin is the focus of this model because tephra from only this basin reaches the Fortymile Wash alluvial fan by fluvial processes, and it is on this fan where the radiological dose to a hypothetical individual is compared to the regulatory standard (via additional biosphere models). The dilution effect of flood scour, mixing, and re-deposition within the upper basin is modeled using a dilution-mixing model widely used in the contaminant-transport literature. The accuracy of this model is established by comparing the model prediction with tephra concentrations measured in channels draining the Lathrop Wells volcanic center. The model combines the contaminated tephra transported from the upper basin with the tephra deposited directly on the fan as primary fallout. On the Fortymile Wash fan, channels and interchannel-divide areas are divided on the basis of soil-geomorphic mapping according to whether they are Holocene or Pleistocene in age. This approach allows the model to incorporate the effects of channel migration on the fan within the past 10,000 yr. The model treats the redistribution

  7. Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

    2004-10-01

    Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

  8. Observations of volcanic plumes using small balloon soundings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voemel, H.

    2015-12-01

    Eruptions of volcanoes are very difficult to predict and for practical purposes may occur at any time. Any observing system intending to observe volcanic eruptions has to be ready at any time. Due to transport time scales, emissions of large volcanic eruptions, in particular injections into the stratosphere, may be detected at locations far from the volcano within days to weeks after the eruption. These emissions may be observed using small balloon soundings at dedicated sites. Here we present observations of particles of the Icelandic Grimsvotn eruption at the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg, Germany in the months following the eruption and observations of opportunity of other volcanic particle events. We also present observations of the emissions of SO2 from the Turrialba volcano at San Jose, Costa Rica. We argue that dedicated sites for routine observations of the clean and perturbed atmosphere using small sounding balloons are an important element in the detection and quantification of emissions from future volcanic eruptions.

  9. Volcanic Origin of Alkali Halides on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, L.; Fegley, B., Jr.

    2003-01-01

    The recent observation of NaCl (gas) on Io confirms our earlier prediction that NaCl is produced volcanically. Here we extend our calculations by modeling thermochemical equilibrium of O, S, Li, Na, K, Rb, Cs, F, Cl, Br, and I as a function of temperature and pressure in a Pele-like volcanic gas with O/S/Na/Cl/K = 1.518/1/0.05/0.04/0.005 and CI chondritic ratios of the other (as yet unobserved) alkalis and halogens. For reference, the nominal temperature and pressure for Pele is 1760 plus or minus 210 K and 0.01 bars based on Galileo data and modeling.

  10. [Effects of volcanic eruptions on environment and health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuskin, Eugenija; Mustajbegović, Jadranka; Doko Jelinić, Jagoda; Pucarin-Cvetković, Jasna; Milosević, Milan

    2007-12-01

    Volcanoes pose a threat to almost half a billion people; today there are approximately 500 active volcanoes on Earth, and every year there are 10 to 40 volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions produce hazardous effects for the environment, climate, and the health of the exposed persons, and are associated with the deterioration of social and economic conditions. Along with magma and steam (H2O), the following gases surface in the environment: carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), carbon sulphide (CS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen bromide (HBr) and various organic compounds, as well as heavy metals (mercury, lead, gold).Their unfavourable effects depend on the distance from a volcano, on magma viscosity, and on gas concentrations. The hazards closer to the volcano include pyroclastic flows, flows of mud, gases and steam, earthquakes, blasts of air, and tsunamis. Among the hazards in distant areas are the effects of toxic volcanic ashes and problems of the respiratory system, eyes and skin, as well as psychological effects, injuries, transport and communication problems, waste disposal and water supplies issues, collapse of buildings and power outage. Further effects are the deterioration of water quality, fewer periods of rain, crop damages, and the destruction of vegetation. During volcanic eruptions and their immediate aftermath, increased respiratory system morbidity has been observed as well as mortality among those affected by volcanic eruptions. Unfavourable health effects could partly be prevented by timely application of safety measures.

  11. Volcanic risk; Risque volcanique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles` volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs.

  12. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

  13. Novel technologies and an overall strategy to allow hazard assessment and risk prediction of chemicals, cosmetics, and drugs with animal-free methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leist, Marcel; Lidbury, Brett A; Yang, Chihae; Hayden, Patrick J; Kelm, Jens M; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Detroyer, Ann; Meunier, Jean R; Rathman, James F; Jackson, George R; Stolper, Gina; Hasiwa, Nina

    2012-01-01

    Several alternative methods to replace animal experiments have been accepted by legal bodies. An even larger number of tests are under development or already in use for non-regulatory applications or for the generation of information stored in proprietary knowledge bases. The next step for the use of the different in vitro methods is their combination into integrated testing strategies (ITS) to get closer to the overall goal of predictive "in vitro-based risk evaluation processes." We introduce here a conceptual framework as the basis for future ITS and their use for risk evaluation without animal experiments. The framework allows incorporation of both individual tests and already integrated approaches. Illustrative examples for elements to be incorporated are drawn from the session "Innovative technologies" at the 8th World Congress on Alternatives and Animal Use in the Life Sciences, held in Montreal, 2011. For instance, LUHMES cells (conditionally immortalized human neurons) were presented as an example for a 2D cell system. The novel 3D platform developed by InSphero was chosen as an example for the design and use of scaffold-free, organotypic microtissues. The identification of critical pathways of toxicity (PoT) may be facilitated by approaches exemplified by the MatTek 3D model for human epithelial tissues with engineered toxicological reporter functions. The important role of in silico methods and of modeling based on various pre-existing data is demonstrated by Altamira's comprehensive approach to predicting a molecule's potential for skin irritancy. A final example demonstrates how natural variation in human genetics may be overcome using data analytic (pattern recognition) techniques borrowed from computer science and statistics. The overall hazard and risk assessment strategy integrating these different examples has been compiled in a graphical work flow.

  14. Atmospheric fate and transport of fine volcanic ash: Does particle shape matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, C. M.; Allard, M. P.; Klewicki, J.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Mulukutla, G.; Genareau, K.; Sahagian, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Volcanic ash presents hazards to infrastructure, agriculture, and human and animal health. In particular, given the economic importance of intercontinental aviation, understanding how long ash is suspended in the atmosphere, and how far it is transported has taken on greater importance. Airborne ash abrades the exteriors of aircraft, enters modern jet engines and melts while coating interior engine parts causing damage and potential failure. The time fine ash stays in the atmosphere depends on its terminal velocity. Existing models of ash terminal velocities are based on smooth, quasi-spherical particles characterized by Stokes velocity. Ash particles, however, violate the various assumptions upon which Stokes flow and associated models are based. Ash particles are non-spherical and can have complex surface and internal structure. This suggests that particle shape may be one reason that models fail to accurately predict removal rates of fine particles from volcanic ash clouds. The present research seeks to better parameterize predictive models for ash particle terminal velocities, diffusivity, and dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer. The fundamental hypothesis being tested is that particle shape irreducibly impacts the fate and transport properties of fine volcanic ash. Pilot studies, incorporating modeling and experiments, are being conducted to test this hypothesis. Specifically, a statistical model has been developed that can account for actual volcanic ash size distributions, complex ash particle geometry, and geometry variability. Experimental results are used to systematically validate and improve the model. The experiments are being conducted at the Flow Physics Facility (FPF) at UNH. Terminal velocities and dispersion properties of fine ash are characterized using still air drop experiments in an unconstrained open space using a homogenized mix of source particles. Dispersion and sedimentation dynamics are quantified using particle image

  15. The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Wilkinson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

  16. On a Possible Unified Scaling Law for Volcanic Eruption Durations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannavò, Flavio; Nunnari, Giuseppe

    2016-03-01

    Volcanoes constitute dissipative systems with many degrees of freedom. Their eruptions are the result of complex processes that involve interacting chemical-physical systems. At present, due to the complexity of involved phenomena and to the lack of precise measurements, both analytical and numerical models are unable to simultaneously include the main processes involved in eruptions thus making forecasts of volcanic dynamics rather unreliable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of some eruption parameters, such as the duration, could be a key factor in natural hazard estimation and mitigation. Analyzing a large database with most of all the known volcanic eruptions, we have determined that the duration of eruptions seems to be described by a universal distribution which characterizes eruption duration dynamics. In particular, this paper presents a plausible global power-law distribution of durations of volcanic eruptions that holds worldwide for different volcanic environments. We also introduce a new, simple and realistic pipe model that can follow the same found empirical distribution. Since the proposed model belongs to the family of the self-organized systems it may support the hypothesis that simple mechanisms can lead naturally to the emergent complexity in volcanic behaviour.

  17. Hazardous materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... substances that could harm human health or the environment. Hazardous means dangerous, so these materials must be ... M. is also a founding member of Hi-Ethics and subscribes to the principles of the Health ...

  18. ''Hazardous'' terminology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, J.

    1991-01-01

    A number of terms (e.g., ''hazardous chemicals,'' ''hazardous materials,'' ''hazardous waste,'' and similar nomenclature) refer to substances that are subject to regulation under one or more federal environmental laws. State laws and regulations also provide additional, similar, or identical terminology that may be confused with the federally defined terms. Many of these terms appear synonymous, and it easy to use them interchangeably. However, in a regulatory context, inappropriate use of narrowly defined terms can lead to confusion about the substances referred to, the statutory provisions that apply, and the regulatory requirements for compliance under the applicable federal statutes. This information Brief provides regulatory definitions, a brief discussion of compliance requirements, and references for the precise terminology that should be used when referring to ''hazardous'' substances regulated under federal environmental laws. A companion CERCLA Information Brief (EH-231-004/0191) addresses ''toxic'' nomenclature

  19. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.

  20. Welding hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Welding technology is advancing rapidly in the developed countries and has converted into a science. Welding involving the use of electricity include resistance welding. Welding shops are opened in residential area, which was causing safety hazards, particularly the teenagers and children who eagerly see the welding arc with their naked eyes. There are radiation hazards from ultra violet rays which irritate the skin, eye irritation. Welding arc light of such intensity could damage the eyes. (Orig./A.B.)

  1. The onset of the volcanism in the Ciomadul Volcanic Dome Complex (Eastern Carpathians): Eruption chronology and magma type variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnár, Kata; Harangi, Szabolcs; Lukács, Réka; Dunkl, István; Schmitt, Axel K.; Kiss, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Seghedi, Ioan

    2018-04-01

    volcanic eruptions were often separated by prolonged (ca. 100 to 200 kyr) quiescence periods. Demonstration of recurrence of volcanism even after such long dormancy has to be considered in assessing volcanic hazards, particularly in seemingly inactive volcanic areas, where no Holocene eruptions occurred. The term of 'volcanoes with Potentially Active Magma Storage' illustrates the potential of volcanic rejuvenation for such long-dormant volcanoes with the existence of melt-bearing crustal magma body.

  2. Volcanic Ash Data Assimilation System for Atmospheric Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, K.; Shimbori, T.; Sato, E.; Tokumoto, T.; Hayashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has two operations for volcanic ash forecasts, which are Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast (VAFF) and Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA). In these operations, the forecasts are calculated by atmospheric transport models including the advection process, the turbulent diffusion process, the gravitational fall process and the deposition process (wet/dry). The initial distribution of volcanic ash in the models is the most important but uncertain factor. In operations, the model of Suzuki (1983) with many empirical assumptions is adopted to the initial distribution. This adversely affects the reconstruction of actual eruption plumes.We are developing a volcanic ash data assimilation system using weather radars and meteorological satellite observation, in order to improve the initial distribution of the atmospheric transport models. Our data assimilation system is based on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation method (3D-Var). Analysis variables are ash concentration and size distribution parameters which are mutually independent. The radar observation is expected to provide three-dimensional parameters such as ash concentration and parameters of ash particle size distribution. On the other hand, the satellite observation is anticipated to provide two-dimensional parameters of ash clouds such as mass loading, top height and particle effective radius. In this study, we estimate the thickness of ash clouds using vertical wind shear of JMA numerical weather prediction, and apply for the volcanic ash data assimilation system.

  3. Optimal likelihood-based matching of volcanic sources and deposits in the Auckland Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabata, Emily; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Wang, Ting

    2016-09-01

    In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracted from the Auckland Volcanic Field, underlying the 1.4 million-population city of Auckland. We examine here the problem of matching these dated deposits to the volcanoes that produced them. The simplest issue is separation in time, which is handled by simulating prior volcano age sequences from direct dates where known, thinned via ordering constraints between the volcanoes. The subproblem of varying deposition thicknesses (which may be zero) at five locations of known distance and azimuth is quantified using a statistical attenuation model for the volcanic ash thickness. These elements are combined with other constraints, from widespread fingerprinted ash layers that separate eruptions and time-censoring of the records, into a likelihood that was optimized via linear programming. A second linear program was used to optimize over the Monte-Carlo simulated set of prior age profiles to determine the best overall match and consequent volcano age assignments. Considering all 20 matches, and the multiple factors of age, direction, and size/distance simultaneously, results in some non-intuitive assignments which would not be produced by single factor analyses. Compared with earlier work, the results provide better age control on a number of smaller centers such as Little Rangitoto, Otuataua, Taylors Hill, Wiri Mountain, Green Hill, Otara Hill, Hampton Park and Mt Cambria. Spatio-temporal hazard estimates are updated on the basis of the new ordering, which suggest that the scale of the 'flare-up' around 30 ka, while still highly significant, was less than previously thought.

  4. Closer look at lunar volcanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaniman, D.T.; Heiken, G.; Taylor, G.J.

    1984-01-01

    Although the American Apollo and Soviet Luna missions concentrated on mare basalt samples, major questions remain about lunar volcanism. Lunar field work will be indispensable for resolving the scientific questions about ages, compositions, and eruption processes of lunar volcanism. From a utilitarian standpoint, a better knowledge of lunar volcanism will also yield profitable returns in lunar base construction (e.g., exploitation of rille or lava-tube structures) and in access to materials such as volatile elements, pure glass, or ilmenite for lunar industry

  5. Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

  6. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: a natural laboratory for studying basaltic volcanism: Chapter 1 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Brantley, Steven R.; Neal, Christina A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe.

  7. Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

  8. Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-04-10

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.  Created: 4/10/2007 by CDC National Center for Environmental Health.   Date Released: 4/13/2007.

  10. In situ Volcanic Plume Monitoring with small Unmanned Aerial Systems for Cal/Val of Satellite Remote Sensing Data: CARTA-UAV 2013 Mission (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, J. A.; Pieri, D. C.; Bland, G.; Fladeland, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    The development of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) with a variety of sensor packages, enables in situ and proximal remote sensing measurements of volcanic plumes. Using Costa Rican volcanoes as a Natural Laboratory, the University of Costa Rica as host institution, in collaboration with four NASA centers, have started an initiative to develop low-cost, field-deployable airborne platforms to perform volcanic gas & ash plume research, and in-situ volcanic monitoring in general, in conjunction with orbital assets and state-of-the-art models of plume transport and composition. Several gas sensors have been deployed into the active plume of Turrialba Volcano including a miniature mass spectrometer, and an electrochemical SO2 sensor system with temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and GPS sensors. Several different airborne platforms such as manned research aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, tethered balloons, as well as man-portable in-situ ground truth systems are being used for this research. Remote sensing data is also collected from the ASTER and OMI spaceborne instruments and compared with in situ data. The CARTA-UAV 2013 Mission deployment and follow up measurements successfully demonstrated a path to study and visualize gaseous volcanic emissions using mass spectrometer and gas sensor based instrumentation in harsh environment conditions to correlate in situ ground/airborne data with remote sensing satellite data for calibration and validation purposes. The deployment of such technology improves on our current capabilities to detect, analyze, monitor, model, and predict hazards presented to aircraft by volcanogenic ash clouds from active and impending volcanic eruptions.

  11. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for Consumption (AUDIT-C is more useful than pre-existing laboratory tests for predicting hazardous drinking: a cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideki Fujii

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to screen for alcohol consumption and drinking customs in a standardized manner. The aim of this study was 1 to investigate whether the AUDIT score is useful for predicting hazardous drinking using optimal cutoff scores and 2 to use multivariate analysis to evaluate whether the AUDIT score was more useful than pre-existing laboratory tests for predicting hazardous drinking. Methods A cross-sectional study using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT was conducted in 334 outpatients who consulted our internal medicine department. The patients completed self-reported questionnaires and underwent a diagnostic interview, physical examination, and laboratory testing. Results Forty (23 % male patients reported daily alcohol consumption ≥ 40 g, and 16 (10 % female patients reported consumption ≥ 20 g. The optimal cutoff values of hazardous drinking were calculated using a 10-fold cross validation, resulting in an optimal AUDIT score cutoff of 8.2, with a sensitivity of 95.5 %, specificity of 87.0 %, false positive rate of 13.0 %, false negative rate of 4.5 %, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97. Multivariate analysis revealed that the most popular short version of the AUDIT consisting solely of its three consumption items (AUDIT-C and patient sex were significantly associated with hazardous drinking. The aspartate transaminase (AST/alanine transaminase (ALT ratio and mean corpuscular volume (MCV were weakly significant. Conclusions This study showed that the AUDIT score and particularly the AUDIT-C score were more useful than the AST/ALT ratio and MCV for predicting hazardous drinking.

  12. Volcanology: Volcanic bipolar disorder explained

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jellinek, Mark

    2014-02-01

    Eruptions come in a range of magnitudes. Numerical simulations and laboratory experiments show that rare, giant super-eruptions and smaller, more frequent events reflect a transition in the essential driving forces for volcanism.

  13. Lidar sounding of volcanic plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorani, Luca; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Angelini, Federico; Borelli, Rodolfo; Del Franco, Mario; Murra, Daniele; Pistilli, Marco; Puiu, Adriana; Santoro, Simone

    2013-10-01

    Accurate knowledge of gas composition in volcanic plumes has high scientific and societal value. On the one hand, it gives information on the geophysical processes taking place inside volcanos; on the other hand, it provides alert on possible eruptions. For this reasons, it has been suggested to monitor volcanic plumes by lidar. In particular, one of the aims of the FP7 ERC project BRIDGE is the measurement of CO2 concentration in volcanic gases by differential absorption lidar. This is a very challenging task due to the harsh environment, the narrowness and weakness of the CO2 absorption lines and the difficulty to procure a suitable laser source. This paper, after a review on remote sensing of volcanic plumes, reports on the current progress of the lidar system.

  14. Modelling ground deformation patterns associated with volcanic processes at the Okataina Volcanic Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, L.; Cas, R.; Fournier, N.; Ailleres, L.

    2017-09-01

    The Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is one of two large active rhyolite centres in the modern Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the North Island of New Zealand. It is located in a complex section of the Taupo rift, a tectonically active section of the TVZ. The most recent volcanic unrest at the OVC includes the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions. Current monitoring activity at the OVC includes the use of continuous GPS receivers (cGPS), lake levelling and seismographs. The ground deformation patterns preceding volcanic activity the OVC are poorly constrained and restricted to predictions from basic modelling and comparison to other volcanoes worldwide. A better understanding of the deformation patterns preceding renewed volcanic activity is essential to determine if observed deformation is related to volcanic, tectonic or hydrothermal processes. Such an understanding also means that the ability of the present day cGPS network to detect these deformation patterns can also be assessed. The research presented here uses the finite element (FE) modelling technique to investigate ground deformation patterns associated with magma accumulation and diking processes at the OVC in greater detail. A number of FE models are produced and tested using Pylith software and incorporate characteristics of the 1315 CE Kaharoa and 1886 Tarawera eruptions, summarised from the existing body of research literature. The influence of a simple ring fault structure at the OVC on the modelled deformation is evaluated. The ability of the present-day continuous GPS (cGPS) GeoNet monitoring network to detect or observe the modelled deformation is also considered. The results show the modelled horizontal and vertical displacement fields have a number of key features, which include prominent lobe based regions extending northwest and southeast of the OVC. The results also show that the ring fault structure increases the magnitude of the displacements inside the caldera, in particular in the

  15. Volcanic eruption plumes on Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.; Masursky, H.; Hansen, C.

    1979-01-01

    The detection of an umbrella-shaped plume extending about 280 km above the bright limb of Io was one of the most important discoveries made during the Voyager 1 encounter with the jovian system. This discovery proves that Io is volcanically active at present, and the number and magnitude of these eruptions indicate that Io is the most volcanically active body so far discovered in the Solar System. Preliminary analyses of these eruptive plumes are presented. (U.K.)

  16. Volcanic crisis in

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mgs. Víctor Manuel Pérez Martínez

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is the result of an investigation which is focussed on some deontological aspects of the scientificjournalism. In the first place it gives a theoretical vision about science, journalism, internet and including some reflectionsabout the deontological principles in handling the information about science and technology. This focus is useful as it formsthe base of an investigation where we deal with the information about a possible ”volcanic crisis” in El Teide during the years2004-2005 done by the digital newspaper” El Dïa” a canarian newspaper from Tenerife. The work required the revision of theinformation which was published and a followed analysis of its context. It was used the digital version with the purpose ofvisualizing the news which was published. It was also compared with a printed version, with local cover but divulged theinformation to the public who was most affected by this particular news. The results give rise to some questions regardinghow the information is given to a topic which is of local interest as well as national and international interest due to therepercussions in the social, economical and tourist field (the tourist field is the main industrial sector in Tenerife by receivingthis type of news.

  17. Effects of volcanic deposit disaggregation on exposed water composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Back, W. E.; Genareau, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    Explosive volcanic eruptions produce a variety of hazards. Pyroclastic material can be introduced to water through ash fallout, pyroclastic flows entering water bodies, and/or lahars. Remobilization of tephras can occur soon after eruption or centuries later, introducing additional pyroclastic material into the environment. Introduction of pyroclastic material may alter the dissolved element concentration and pH of exposed waters, potentially impacting drinking water supplies, agriculture, and ecology. This study focuses on the long-term impacts of volcanic deposits on water composition due to the mechanical breakup of volcanic deposits over time. Preliminary work has shown that mechanical milling of volcanic deposits will cause significant increases in dissolved element concentrations, conductivity, and pH of aqueous solutions. Pyroclastic material from seven eruptions sites was collected, mechanically milled to produce grain sizes Soufriere Hills, Ruapehu), mafic (Lathrop Wells) and ultramafic (mantle xenoliths) volcanic deposits. Lathrop Wells has an average bulk concentration of 49.15 wt.% SiO2, 6.11 wt. % MgO, and 8.39 wt. % CaO and produces leachate concentrations of 85.69 mg/kg for Ca and 37.22 mg/kg for Mg. Taupo and Valles Caldera samples have a bulk concentration of 72.9 wt.% SiO2, 0.59 wt. % MgO, and 1.48 wt. % CaO, and produces leachate concentrations of 4.08 mg/kg for Ca and 1.56 mg/kg for Mg. Similar testing will be conducted on the intermediate and ultramafic samples to test the hypothesis that bulk magma composition and mineralogy will directly relate to the increased dissolved element concentration of exposed waters. The measured effects on aqueous solutions will aid in evaluation of impacts to marine and freshwater systems exposed to volcanic deposits.

  18. United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

    2017-07-25

    In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

  19. Radioactive hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gill, J.R.

    1980-01-01

    The use of radioactive substances in hospital laboratories is discussed and the attendant hazards and necessary precautions examined. The new legislation under the Health and Safety at Work Act which, it is proposed, will replace existing legal requirements in the field of health and safety at work by a system of regulations and approved codes of practice designed to maintain or improve the standards of health, safety and welfare already established, is considered with particular reference to protection against ionising radiations. (UK)

  20. Deriving spatial patterns from a novel database of volcanic rock geochemistry in the Virunga Volcanic Province, East African Rift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Sam; Barette, Florian; Smets, Benoît; Benbakkar, Mhammed; Kervyn, Matthieu

    2016-04-01

    eruption of 1957 belongs to these primitive clusters and is the only known to have erupted outside the current rift valley in historical times. We thus infer there is a distributed hazard of vent opening susceptibility additional to the susceptibility associated with the main Virunga edifices. This study suggests that the statistical analysis of such geochemical database may help to understand complex volcanic plumbing systems and the spatial distribution of volcanic hazards in active and poorly known volcanic areas such as the Virunga Volcanic Province.

  1. Volcanic geomorphology using TanDEM-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael; Kubanek, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Topography is perhaps the most fundamental dataset for any volcano, yet is surprisingly difficult to collect, especially during the course of an eruption. For example, photogrammetry and lidar are time-intensive and often expensive, and they cannot be employed when the surface is obscured by clouds. Ground-based surveys can operate in poor weather but have poor spatial resolution and may expose personnel to hazardous conditions. Repeat passes of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data provide excellent spatial resolution, but topography in areas of surface change (from vegetation swaying in the wind to physical changes in the landscape) between radar passes cannot be imaged. The German Space Agency's TanDEM-X satellite system, however, solves this issue by simultaneously acquiring SAR data of the surface using a pair of orbiting satellites, thereby removing temporal change as a complicating factor in SAR-based topographic mapping. TanDEM-X measurements have demonstrated exceptional value in mapping the topography of volcanic environments in as-yet limited applications. The data provide excellent resolution (down to ~3-m pixel size) and are useful for updating topographic data at volcanoes where surface change has occurred since the most recent topographic dataset was collected. Such data can be used for applications ranging from correcting radar interferograms for topography, to modeling flow pathways in support of hazards mitigation. The most valuable contributions, however, relate to calculating volume changes related to eruptive activity. For example, limited datasets have provided critical measurements of lava dome growth and collapse at volcanoes including Merapi (Indonesia), Colima (Mexico), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and of basaltic lava flow emplacement at Tolbachik (Kamchatka), Etna (Italy), and Kīlauea (Hawai`i). With topographic data spanning an eruption, it is possible to calculate eruption rates - information that might not otherwise be available

  2. Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.

    2009-01-01

    The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age activity, unrest, that do not culminate in eruptions. Monitoring volcanic activity in the United States is the responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and is accomplished with academic, Federal, and State partners. The VHP supports five Volcano Observatories - the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the exception of HVO, which was established in 1912, the U.S. Volcano Observatories have been established in the past 27 years in response to specific volcanic eruptions or sustained levels of unrest. As understanding of volcanic activity and hazards has grown over the years, so have the extent and types of monitoring networks and techniques available to detect early signs of anomalous volcanic behavior. This increased capability is providing us with a more accurate gauge of volcanic activity in the United States. The purpose of this report is to (1) document the range of volcanic activity that U.S. Volcano Observatories have dealt with, beginning with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, (2) describe some overall characteristics of the activity, and (3) serve as a quick reference to pertinent published literature on the eruptions and unrest documented in this report.

  3. Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Fu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved.

  4. Adsorption of 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid onto Volcanic Ash Soils:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ei Ei Mon

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the linear adsorption coefficient (Kd for soils plays a vital role to predict fate and transport of pesticides in the soil-water environment. In this study, we measured Kd values for 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D adsorption onto Japanese volcanic ash soils with different amount of soil organic matter (SOM in batch experiments under different pH conditions. All measurements followed well both linear and Freundlich adsorption isotherms. Strong correlations were found between measured Kd values and pH as well as SOM. The 2,4-D adsorption increased with decreasing pH and with increasing SOM. Based on the data, a predictive Kd equation for volcanic ash soils, log (Kd = 2.04 - 0.37 pH + 0.91 log (SOM, was obtained by the multiple regression analysis. The predictive Kd equation was tested against measured 2,4-D sorption data for other volcanic ash soils and normal mineral soils from literature. The proposed Kd equation well predicted Kd values for other volcanic ash soils and slightly over- or under-predicted Kd values for normal mineral soils. The proposed Kd equation performed well against volcanic ash soils from different sites and countries, and is therefore recommended for predicting Kd values at different pH and SOM conditions for volcanic ash soils when calculating and predicting 2,4-D mobility and fate in soil and groundwater.

  5. Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

  6. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  7. Rate of volcanism on Venus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fegley, B. Jr.; Prinn, R.G.

    1988-07-01

    The maintenance of the global H 2 SO 4 clouds on Venus requires volcanism to replenish the atmospheric SO 2 which is continually being removed from the atmosphere by reaction with calcium minerals on the surface of Venus. The first laboratory measurements of the rate of one such reaction, between SO 2 and calcite (CaCO 3 ) to form anhydrite (CaSO 4 ), are reported. If the rate of this reaction is representative of the SO 2 reaction rate at the Venus surface, then we estimate that all SO 2 in the Venus atmosphere (and thus the H 2 SO 4 clouds) will be removed in 1.9 million years unless the lost SO 2 is replenished by volcanism. The required rate of volcanism ranges from about 0.4 to about 11 cu km of magma erupted per year, depending on the assumed sulfur content of the erupted material. If this material has the same composition as the Venus surface at the Venera 13, 14 and Vega 2 landing sites, then the required rate of volcanism is about 1 cu km per year. This independent geochemically estimated rate can be used to determine if either (or neither) of the two discordant (2 cu km/year vs. 200 to 300 cu km/year) geophysically estimated rates is correct. The geochemically estimated rate also suggests that Venus is less volcanically active than the Earth

  8. How Did Climate and Humans Respond to Past Volcanic Eruptions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, Matthew; Ludlow, Francis; Legrande, Allegra N.

    2016-01-01

    To predict and prepare for future climate change, scientists are striving to understand how global-scale climatic change manifests itself on regional scales and also how societies adapt or don't to sometimes subtle and complex climatic changes. In this regard, the strongest volcanic eruptions of the past are powerful test cases, showcasing how the broad climate system responds to sudden changes in radiative forcing and how societies have responded to the resulting climatic shocks. These issues were at the heart of the inaugural workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Working Group, convened in June 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y. The 3-day meeting gathered approximately 50 researchers, who presented work intertwining the history of volcanic eruptions and the physical processes that connect eruptions with human and natural systems on a global scale.

  9. Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

    OpenAIRE

    Di Mai, R.; Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.; Petrillo, Z.; Piscitelli, S.; Siniscalchi, A.; Veneruso, M.

    1997-01-01

    We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, wh...

  10. Atmospheric dispersion simulations of volcanic gas from Miyake Island by SPEEDI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Furuno, Akiko; Terada, Hiroaki; Umeyama, Nobuaki; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Chino, Masamichi

    2001-03-01

    Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is advancing the study for prediction of material circulation in the environment to cope with environmental pollution, based on SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of SPEEDI), which are originally developed aiming at real-time prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive substances accidentally released from nuclear facility. As a part of this study, dispersion simulation of volcanic gas erupted from Miyake Island is put into practice. After the stench incident at the west Kanto District on 28 August 2000 caused by volcanic gas from Miyake Island, the following simulations dealing with atmospheric dispersion of volcanic gas from Miyake Island have been carried out. (1) Retrospective simulation to analyze examine the mechanism of the transport of high concentration volcanic gas to the west Kanto District on 28 August and to estimate the release amount of volcanic gas. (2) Retrospective simulation to analyze the mechanism of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kansai districts in a case of stench incident on 13 September. (3) Automated real-time simulation from the acquisition of meteorological data to the output of figures for operational prediction of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kanto districts. This report describes the details of these studies. (author)

  11. Volcanic Eruptions in Kamchatka

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Sheveluch Stratovolcano Click on the image for full resolution TIFF Klyuchevskoy Stratovolcano Click on the image for full resolution TIFF One of the most volcanically active regions of the world is the Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Siberia, Russia. It is not uncommon for several volcanoes to be erupting at the same time. On April 26, 2007, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radioneter (ASTER) on NASA's Terra spacecraft captured these images of the Klyuchevskoy and Sheveluch stratovolcanoes, erupting simultaneously, and 80 kilometers (50 miles) apart. Over Klyuchevskoy, the thermal infrared data (overlaid in red) indicates that two open-channel lava flows are descending the northwest flank of the volcano. Also visible is an ash-and-water plume extending to the east. Sheveluch volcano is partially cloud-covered. The hot flows highlighted in red come from a lava dome at the summit. They are avalanches of material from the dome, and pyroclastic flows. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra spacecraft. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and

  12. A comparison of volcanic eruption processes on Earth, Moon, Mars, Io and Venus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, L.; Lancaster Univ.; Head, J.W. III

    1983-01-01

    The silicate planets and satellites display a wide range of physical, chemical and atmospheric characteristics which may influence the nature of volcanism, a major geological process common to the evolution of the surfaces of these bodies. Consideration of the process of magma ascent and eruption from first principles allows predictions to be made concerning volcanic eruption styles and expected landforms and deposits on each planetary body. Examination of actual landforms and deposits in light of these predictions leads to a better understanding of the nature of volcanic eruption processes and outlines outstanding problems. (author)

  13. Evaluation of In Vitro Biotransformation Using HepaRG Cells to Improve High-Throughput Chemical Hazard Prediction: A Toxicogenomics Analysis (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPA’s ToxCast program has generated a wealth of data in >600 in vitro assayson a library of 1060 environmentally relevant chemicals and failed pharmaceuticals to facilitate hazard identification. An inherent criticism of many in vitro-based strategies is the inability of a...

  14. Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies: 1992--1993 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The annual report of the Center for Volcanic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, reprints and a Master of Science thesis that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1992 and February 1, 1994. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that have direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics include: (1) polygenetic/polycyclic volcanism in Crater Flat, Nevada; (2) the role of the mantle during crustal extension; (3) the detailed geology of Crater Flat, Nevada; (4) Pliocene volcanoes in the Reveille Range, south-central Nevada; (5) estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruptions. This topic is being studied by Dr. C.H. Ho at UNLV. The report contains copies of these individual papers as they were presented in various conference proceedings

  15. Satellite-based detection of volcanic sulphur dioxide from recent eruptions in Central and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Loyola

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can emit large amounts of rock fragments and fine particles (ash into the atmosphere, as well as several gases, including sulphur dioxide (SO2. These ejecta and emissions are a major natural hazard, not only to the local population, but also to the infrastructure in the vicinity of volcanoes and to aviation. Here, we describe a methodology to retrieve quantitative information about volcanic SO2 plumes from satellite-borne measurements in the UV/Visible spectral range. The combination of a satellite-based SO2 detection scheme and a state-of-the-art 3D trajectory model enables us to confirm the volcanic origin of trace gas signals and to estimate the plume height and the effective emission height. This is demonstrated by case-studies for four selected volcanic eruptions in South and Central America, using the GOME, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 instruments.

  16. Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1989-01-01

    The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

  17. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Morley, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is located 20 km south of the potential Yucca Mountain site, at the south end of the Yucca Mountain range. This paper discusses a detailed Study Plan which was prepared describing planned geochronology and field studies to assess the chronology of the Lathrop Wells volcanic center and other Quaternary volcanic centers in the region. A paper was published discussing the geomorphic and soil evidence for a late Pleistocene or Holoceno age for the main cone of the center. The purpose of this paper was to expose the ideas concerning the age of the Lathrop Wells center to scientific scrutiny. Additionally, field evidence was described suggesting the Lathrop Wells center may have formed from multiple eruptive events with significant intervals of no activity between events. This interpretation breaks with established convention in the volcanological literature that small volume basalt centers are monogenetic

  18. Hazard Map of the Poás Volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Barrantes Castillo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Poás volcano presents a series of hazards to the lives and activities of the communities in its surroundings; these hazards include ash fall, volcanic gases, ballistic projection, pyroclastic flows, lahars and lava flows. In the study described in this article, risks were zoned and integrated to form combined hazard maps for later use in territorial planning processes. With respect to methodology, the study was based on a heuristic approximation, which was supported with cartographic, geomorphological, and historical impact criteria to achieve a suitable product in terms of scale and ease of interpretation. These maps present greater detail and integration than other works and cartographies of volcanic hazards in Costa Rica.

  19. Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

    2016-01-01

    To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

  20. Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

    2008-01-01

    More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

  1. Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

    2005-12-01

    The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

  2. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

  3. Tsunami hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  4. Tsunami hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  5. The Volcanism Ontology (VO): a model of the volcanic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, J.; Babaie, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    We have modeled a part of the complex material and process entities and properties of the volcanic system in the Volcanism Ontology (VO) applying several top-level ontologies such as Basic Formal Ontology (BFO), SWEET, and Ontology of Physics for Biology (OPB) within a single framework. The continuant concepts in BFO describe features with instances that persist as wholes through time and have qualities (attributes) that may change (e.g., state, composition, and location). In VO, the continuants include lava, volcanic rock, and volcano. The occurrent concepts in BFO include processes, their temporal boundaries, and the spatio-temporal regions within which they occur. In VO, these include eruption (process), the onset of pyroclastic flow (temporal boundary), and the space and time span of the crystallization of lava in a lava tube (spatio-temporal region). These processes can be of physical (e.g., debris flow, crystallization, injection), atmospheric (e.g., vapor emission, ash particles blocking solar radiation), hydrological (e.g., diffusion of water vapor, hot spring), thermal (e.g., cooling of lava) and other types. The properties (predicates) relate continuants to other continuants, occurrents to continuants, and occurrents to occurrents. The ontology also models other concepts such as laboratory and field procedures by volcanologists, sampling by sensors, and the type of instruments applied in monitoring volcanic activity. When deployed on the web, VO will be used to explicitly and formally annotate data and information collected by volcanologists based on domain knowledge. This will enable the integration of global volcanic data and improve the interoperability of software that deal with such data.

  6. Candidate constructional volcanic edifices on Mercury

    OpenAIRE

    Wright, J.; Rothery, D. A.; Balme, M. R.; Conway, S. J.

    2018-01-01

    [Introduction] Studies using MESSENGER data suggest that Mercury’s crust is predominantly a product of effusive volcanism that occurred in the first billion years following the planet’s formation. Despite this planet-wide effusive volcanism, no constructional volcanic edifices, characterized by a topographic rise, have hitherto been robustly identified on Mercury, whereas constructional volcanoes are common on other planetary bodies in the solar system with volcanic histories. Here, we descri...

  7. Applications of the PUFF model to forecasts of volcanic clouds dispersal from Etna and Vesuvio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniele, P.; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.; Spinelli, N.; Peterson, R.

    2009-05-01

    PUFF is a numerical volcanic ash tracking model developed to simulate the behaviour of ash clouds in the atmosphere. The model uses wind field data provided by meteorological models and adds dispersion and sedimentation physics to predict the evolution of the cloud once it reaches thermodynamic equilibrium with the atmosphere. The software is intended for use in emergency response situations during an eruption to quickly forecast the position and trajectory of the ash cloud in the near (˜1-72 h) future. In this paper, we describe the first application of the PUFF model in forecasting volcanic ash dispersion from the Etna and Vesuvio volcanoes. We simulated the daily occurrence of an eruptive event of Etna utilizing ash cloud parameters describing the paroxysm of 22nd July 1998 and wind field data for the 1st September 2005-31st December 2005 time span from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at the approximate location of the Etna volcano (38N 15E). The results show that volcanic ash particles are dispersed in a range of directions in response to changing wind field at various altitudes and that the ash clouds are mainly dispersed toward the east and southeast, although the exact trajectory is highly variable, and can change within a few hours. We tested the sensitivity of the model to the mean particle grain size and found that an increased concentration of ash particles in the atmosphere results when the mean grain size is decreased. Similarly, a dramatic variation in dispersion results when the logarithmic standard deviation of the particle-size distribution is changed. Additionally, we simulated the occurrence of an eruptive event at both Etna and Vesuvio, using the same parameters describing the initial volcanic plume, and wind field data recorded for 1st September 2005, at approximately 38N 15E for Etna and 41N 14E for Vesuvio. The comparison of the two simulations indicates that identical eruptions occurring at the same time at the two volcanic centres

  8. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1979-01-01

    Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

  9. Electrostatic hazards

    CERN Document Server

    Luttgens, Günter; Luttgens, Gnter; Luttgens, G Nter

    1997-01-01

    In the US, UK and Europe there is in excess of one notifiable dust or electrostatic explosion every day of the year. This clearly makes the hazards associated with the handling of materials subject to either cause or react to electrostatic discharge of vital importance to anyone associated with their handling or industrial bulk use. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the dangers of static electricity and how to avoid them. It will prove invaluable to safety managers and professionals, as well as all personnel involved in the activities concerned, in the chemical, agricultural, pharmaceutical and petrochemical process industries. The book makes extended use of case studies to illustrate the principles being expounded, thereby making it far more open, accessible and attractive to the practitioner in industry than the highly theoretical texts which are also available. The authors have many years' experience in the area behind them, including the professional teaching of the content provided here. Günte...

  10. Human hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delpla, M.; Vignes, S.; Wolber, G.

    1976-01-01

    Among health hazards from ionizing radiations, a distinction is made of observed, likely and theoretical risks. Theoretical risks, derived from extrapolation of observations on sublethal exposures to low doses may frighten. However, they have nothing in common with reality as shown for instance, by the study of carcinogenesis risks at Nagasaki. By extrapolation to low doses, theoretical mutation risks are derived by geneticians from the observation of some characters especially deleterious in the progeny of parents exposed to sublethal doses. One cannot agree when by calculation they express a population exposure by a shift of its genetic balance with an increase of the proportion of disabled individuals. As a matter of fact, experimental exposure of successive generations of laboratory animals shows no accumulation of deleterious genes, sublethal doses excepted. Large nuclear plants should not be overwhelmed by horrible charges on sanitary grounds, whereas small sources have but too often shown they may originate mortal risks [fr

  11. San Miguel Volcanic Seismic and Structure in Central America: Insight into the Physical Processes of Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A.; Konter, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and - 88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. In general, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We initially locate events using automated routines and focus on analyzing local events. We then relocate each seismic event by hand-picking P-wave arrivals, and later refine these picks using waveform cross correlation. Using a double difference earthquake location algorithm (HypoDD), we identify a set of earthquakes that vertically align beneath the edifice of the volcano, suggesting that we have identified a magma conduit feeding the volcano. We also apply a double-difference earthquake tomography approach (tomoDD) to investigate the volcano’s plumbing system. Our preliminary results show the extent of the magma chamber that also aligns with some horizontal seismicity. Overall, this volcano is very active and presents a significant hazard to the region.

  12. Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

    2013-03-01

    The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

  13. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N_2–CO_2–H_2O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO_2 outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H_2 can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N_2–CO_2–H_2O–H_2) can be sustained as long as volcanic H_2 output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H_2 warming is reduced in dense H_2O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H_2 atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  14. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa, E-mail: rmr277@cornell.edu [Carl Sagan Institute, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO{sub 2} outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H{sub 2} can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O–H{sub 2}) can be sustained as long as volcanic H{sub 2} output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H{sub 2} warming is reduced in dense H{sub 2}O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H{sub 2} atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  15. Volcanic Eruption: Students Develop a Contingency Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisinger, Philipp; Wittlich, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Dangerous, loud, sensational, exciting - natural hazards have what it takes to get students attention around the globe. Arising interest is the first step to develop an intrinsic motivation to learn about the matter and endure the hardships that students might discover along the way of the unit. Natural hazards thereby establish a close-knit connection between physical and anthropological geography through analyzing the hazardous event and its consequences for the people living in the affected area. Following a general principle of didactics we start searching right on our doorsteps to offer students the possibility to gain knowledge on the familiar and later transfer it to the unknown example. Even in Southwest Germany - a region that is rather known for its wine than its volcanic activity - we can find a potentially hazardous region. The "Laacher See" volcano (a caldera lake) in northern Rhineland-Palatinate is according to Prof. H.U. Schminke a "potentially active volcano" . Its activity can be proven by seismic activities, or experienced when visiting the lake's southeastern shore, where carbondioxid and sulphur gases from the underlying magma chamber still bubble up. The Laacher See is part of a range of volcanoes (classified from 'potentially active' to 'no longer active') of the East Eifel Volcanic Field. Precariously the Laacher See is located closely to the densely populated agglomerations of Cologne (NE, distance: 45 km) and the former capital Bonn (NE: 35km), as well as Koblenz (E: 24km) and the Rhine river. Apart from that, the towns of Andernach (E: 8km ± 30 000 inhabitants) and Mayen (SW: 11km ±20 000 inhabitants) and many smaller towns and villages are nearby due to economic reasons. The number of people affected by a possible eruption easily exceeds two million people considering the range as prime measurement. The underlying danger, as projected in a simulation presented by Prof. Schminke, is a lava stream running down the Brohltal valley

  16. Chronology of the 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano, Japan: geological background, mechanism of volcanic unrest and disaster mitigation measures during the crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannen, Kazutaka; Yukutake, Yohei; Kikugawa, George; Harada, Masatake; Itadera, Kazuhiro; Takenaka, Jun

    2018-04-01

    The 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano was a very small phreatic eruption, with total erupted ash estimated to be in the order of only 102 m3 and ballistic blocks reaching less than 30 m from the vent. Precursors, however, had been recognized at least 2 months before the eruption and mitigation measures were taken by the local governments well in advance. In this paper, the course of precursors, the eruption and the post-eruptive volcanic activity are reviewed, and a preliminary model for the magma-hydrothermal process that caused the unrest and eruption is proposed. Also, mitigation measures taken during the unrest and eruption are summarized and discussed. The first precursors observed were an inflation of the deep source and deep low-frequency earthquakes in early April 2015; an earthquake swarm then started in late April. On May 3, steam wells in Owakudani, the largest fumarolic area on the volcano, started to blowout. Seismicity reached its maximum in mid-May and gradually decreased; however, at 7:32 local time on June 29, a shallow open crack was formed just beneath Owakudani as inferred from sudden tilt change and InSAR analysis. The same day mud flows and/or debris flows likely started before 11:00 and ash emission began at about 12:30. The volcanic unrest and the eruption of 2015 can be interpreted as a pressure increase in the hydrothermal system, which was triggered by magma replenishment to a deep magma chamber. Such a pressure increase was also inferred from the 2001 unrest and other minor unrests of Hakone volcano during the twenty-first century. In fact, monitoring of repeated periods of unrest enabled alerting prior to the 2015 eruption. However, since open crack formation seems to occur haphazardly, eruption prediction remains impossible and evacuation in the early phase of volcanic unrest is the only way to mitigate volcanic hazard.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  17. Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yen, B.C.

    1988-01-01

    Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

  18. A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

  19. Volcanology and hazards of phreatomagmatic basaltic eruptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Johanne

    Iceland is one of the most active terrestrial volcanic regions on Earth with an average of more than 20 eruptions per century. Around 80% of all events are tephra generating explosive eruptions, but less than 10 % of all known tephra layers have been mapped. Recent hazard assessment models show...... that the two key parameters for hazard assessment modeling are total grain size distribution (TGSD) and eruptive style. These two parameters have been determined for even fewer eruptive events in Iceland. One of the most hazardous volcanoes in Iceland is Katla and no data set of TGSD or other eruptive...... parameters exist. Katla has not erupted for 99 years, but at least 2 of the 20 eruptions since the settlement of Iceland in 871 have reached Northern Europe as visible tephra fall. These eruptions occurred in 1755 and 1625 and remain enigmatic both in terms of actual size and eruption dynamics. This work...

  20. Inferring Shallow Subsurface Density Structure from Surface and Underground Gravity Measurements: Calibrating Models for Relatively Undeformed Volcanic Strata at the Jemez Volcanic Field, New Mexico, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Mousumi; Lewis, Megan; Johnson, Alex; George, Nicolas; Rowe, Charlotte; Guardincerri, Elena

    2018-03-01

    Imaging shallow subsurface density structure is an important goal in a variety of applications, from hydrogeology to seismic and volcanic hazard assessment. We assess the effectiveness of surface and subsurface gravity measurements in estimating the density structure of a well-characterized rock volume: the mesa (a small, flat-topped plateau) upon which the town of Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA is located. Our gravity measurements were made on the mesa surface above a horizontal tunnel and underground, within the tunnel. We demonstrate that, in the absence of other geophysical data such as seismic data or muon attenuation, subsurface (tunnel) gravity measurements are critical to accurately recovering geologic structure. Without the tunnel data, our resolution is limited to roughly the surface gravity station spacing, but by including the tunnel data we can resolve structure to a depth of 10 times the surface gravity station spacing. Densities were obtained using both forward modeling and a Bayesian inverse modeling approach, incorporating relevant constraints from geologic observations. We find that Bayesian inversion, with geologically relevant prior, is a superior approach to the forward models in terms of both robustness and efficiency and correctly predicts the orientation and elevation of important geologic features.

  1. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

    2013-01-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

  2. A GIS based approach for the prediction of the dam break flood hazard – A case study of Zardezas reservoir “Skikda, Algeria”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derdous Oussama

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The construction of dams in rivers can offer many advantages, however the consequences resulting from their failure could result in major damage, including loss of life and property destruction. To mitigate the threats of dam break it is essential to appreciate the characteristics of the potential flood in realistic manner. In this study an approach based on the integration of hydraulic modelling and GIS has been used to assess the risks resulting from a potential failure of Zardezas dam, a concrete dam located in Skikda, in the North East of Algeria. HEC-GeoRAS within GIS was used to extract geometric information from a digital elevation model and then imported into HEC-RAS. Flow simulation of the dam break was performed using HEC-RAS and results were mapped using the GIS. Finally, a flood hazard map based on water depth and flow velocity maps was created in GIS environment. According to this map the potential failure of Zardezas dam will place a large number in people in danger. The present study has shown that Application of Geographical Information System (GIS techniques in integration with hydraulic modelling can significantly reduce the time and the resources required to forecast potential dam break flood hazard which can play a crucial role in improving both flood disaster management and land use planning downstream of dams.

  3. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  4. Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2013-01-01

    Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists

  5. Rapid laccolith intrusion driven by explosive volcanic eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jonathan M; Cordonnier, Benoit; Schipper, C Ian; Tuffen, Hugh; Baumann, Tobias S; Feisel, Yves

    2016-11-23

    Magmatic intrusions and volcanic eruptions are intimately related phenomena. Shallow magma intrusion builds subsurface reservoirs that are drained by volcanic eruptions. Thus, the long-held view is that intrusions must precede and feed eruptions. Here we show that explosive eruptions can also cause magma intrusion. We provide an account of a rapidly emplaced laccolith during the 2011 rhyolite eruption of Cordón Caulle, Chile. Remote sensing indicates that an intrusion began after eruption onset and caused severe (>200 m) uplift over 1 month. Digital terrain models resolve a laccolith-shaped body ∼0.8 km 3 . Deformation and conduit flow models indicate laccolith depths of only ∼20-200 m and overpressures (∼1-10 MPa) that likely stemmed from conduit blockage. Our results show that explosive eruptions may rapidly force significant quantities of magma in the crust to build laccoliths. These iconic intrusions can thus be interpreted as eruptive features that pose unique and previously unrecognized volcanic hazards.

  6. Modeling lunar volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housley, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    Simple physical arguments are used to show that basaltic volcanos on different planetary bodies would fountain to the same height if the mole fraction of gas in the magma scaled with the acceleration of gravity. It is suggested that the actual eruption velocities and fountain heights are controlled by the velocities of sound in the two phase gas/liquid flows. These velocities are in turn determined by the gas contents in the magma. Predicted characteristics of Hawaiian volcanos are in excellent accord with observations. Assuming that the only gas in lunar volcano is the CO which would be produced if the observed Fe metal in lunar basalts resulted from graphite reduction, lunar volcanos would fountain vigorously, but not as spectacularly as their terrestrial counterparts. The volatile trace metals, halogens, and sulfur released would be transported over the entire moon by the transient atmosphere. Orange and black glass type pyroclastic materials would be transported in sufficient amounts to produce the observed dark mantle deposits.

  7. Modeling of hydrothermal circulation applied to active volcanic areas. The case of Vulcano (Italy)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todesco, M. [Dip. Scienze della Terra, Posa (Italy)

    1995-03-01

    Modeling of fluid and heat flows through porous media has been diffusely applied up to date to the study of geothermal reservoirs. Much less has been done to apply the same methodology to the study of active volcanoes and of the associated volcanic hazard. Hydrothermal systems provide direct information on dormant eruptive centers and significant insights on their state of activity and current evolution. For this reason, the evaluation of volcanic hazard is also based on monitoring of hydrothermal activity. Such monitoring, however, provides measurements of surface parameters, such as fluid temperature or composition, that often are only representative of the shallower portion of the system. The interpretation of these data in terms of global functioning of the hydrothermal circulation can therefore be highly misleading. Numerical modeling of hydrothermal activity provides a physical approach to the description of fluid circulation and can contribute to its understanding and to the interpretation of monitoring data. In this work, the TOUGH2 simulator has been applied to study the hydrothermal activity at Vulcano (Italy). Simulations involved an axisymmetric domain heated from below, and focused on the effects of permeability distribution and carbon dioxide. Results are consistent with the present knowledge of the volcanic system and suggest that permeability distribution plays a major role in the evolution of fluid circulation. This parameter should be considered in the interpretation of monitoring data and in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at Vulcano.

  8. Can rain cause volcanic eruptions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Larry G.

    1993-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are renowned for their violence and destructive power. This power comes ultimately from the heat and pressure of molten rock and its contained gases. Therefore we rarely consider the possibility that meteoric phenomena, like rainfall, could promote or inhibit their occurrence. Yet from time to time observers have suggested that weather may affect volcanic activity. In the late 1800's, for example, one of the first geologists to visit the island of Hawaii, J.D. Dana, speculated that rainfall influenced the occurrence of eruptions there. In the early 1900's, volcanologists suggested that some eruptions from Mount Lassen, Calif., were caused by the infiltration of snowmelt into the volcano's hot summit. Most such associations have not been provable because of lack of information; others have been dismissed after careful evaluation of the evidence.

  9. Automated detection and cataloging of global explosive volcanism using the International Monitoring System infrasound network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matoza, Robin S.; Green, David N.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Shearer, Peter M.; Fee, David; Mialle, Pierrick; Ceranna, Lars

    2017-04-01

    We experiment with a new method to search systematically through multiyear data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network to identify explosive volcanic eruption signals originating anywhere on Earth. Detecting, quantifying, and cataloging the global occurrence of explosive volcanism helps toward several goals in Earth sciences and has direct applications in volcanic hazard mitigation. We combine infrasound signal association across multiple stations with source location using a brute-force, grid-search, cross-bearings approach. The algorithm corrects for a background prior rate of coherent unwanted infrasound signals (clutter) in a global grid, without needing to screen array processing detection lists from individual stations prior to association. We develop the algorithm using case studies of explosive eruptions: 2008 Kasatochi, Alaska; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kurile Islands; and 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. We apply the method to global IMS infrasound data from 2005-2010 to construct a preliminary acoustic catalog that emphasizes sustained explosive volcanic activity (long-duration signals or sequences of impulsive transients lasting hours to days). This work represents a step toward the goal of integrating IMS infrasound data products into global volcanic eruption early warning and notification systems. Additionally, a better understanding of volcanic signal detection and location with the IMS helps improve operational event detection, discrimination, and association capabilities.

  10. The Lanzarote Geodynamic Laboratory: new capabilities for monitoring of volcanic activity at Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnoso, J.; Vélez, E. J.; Soler, V.; Montesinos, F. G.; Benavent, M.

    2012-04-01

    manifestations at the surface level, and to compare geodynamic processes associated with an active area of the Earth's crust. In turn, the results obtained can provide new inputs for studying precursor of volcanic activity and also contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation. The LGL aims to be a permanent status of renewal, using new technologies for data recording and real time transmission, as well as for testing new sensors, scientific equipment and observational techniques related to monitoring and observation of volcanic activity. All these capabilities are necessary when high-resolution ground based observations must provide us the basis for studying the sources of volcanic deformation. The laboratory is thus open to support and to enhance the collaboration among scientists, as well as national and international institutions involved in research at active volcanic areas.

  11. Major hazards onshore and offshore

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This symposium continues the tradition of bringing together papers on a topic of current interest and importance in terms of process safety - in this case, Major Hazards Onshore and Offshore. Lord Cullen in his report on the Piper Alpha disaster has, in effect, suggested that the experience gained in the control of major hazards onshore during the 1980s should be applied to improve safety offshore during the 1990s. This major three-day symposium reviews what has been learned so far with regard to major hazards and considers its present and future applications both onshore and offshore. The topics covered in the programme are wide ranging and deal with all aspects of legislation, the application of regulations, techniques for evaluating hazards and prescribing safety measures in design, construction and operation, the importance of the human factors, and recent technical developments in protective measures, relief venting and predicting the consequences of fires and explosions. (author)

  12. Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

    2018-05-02

    Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

  13. Volcanic deformation in the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S.; Fournier, T.; Pritchard, M.

    2009-05-01

    We present the results from an InSAR survey of volcanic activity in South America. We use data from the Japanese Space Agency's ALOS L-band radar satellite from 2006-2009. The L-band instrument provides better coherence in densely vegetated regions, compared to the shorter wave length C-band data. The survey reveals volcano related deformation in regions, north, central and southern, of the Andes volcanic arc. Since observations are limited to the austral summer, comprehensive coverage of all volcanoes is not possible. Yet, our combined observations reveal volcanic/hydrothermal deformation at Lonquimay, Llaima, Laguna del Maule, and Chaitén volcanoes, extend deformation measurements at Copahue, and illustrate temporal complexity to the previously described deformation at Cerro Hudson and Cordón Caulle. No precursory deformation is apparent before the large Chaitén eruption (VEI_5) of 2 May 2008, (at least before 16 April) suggesting rapid magma movement from depth at this long dormant volcano. Subsidence at Ticsani Volcano occurred coincident with an earthquake swarm in the same region.

  14. Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

    2013-08-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg-1) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg-1). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark—in pyroclastic wounds—and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg-1) and bark (6.0 μg kg-1) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

  15. Source mechanism of volcanic tremor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrick, M.G.; Qamar, A.; St. Lawrence, W.F.

    1982-10-10

    Low-frequency (<10 Hz) volcanic earthquakes originate at a wide range of depths and occur before, during, and after magmatic eruptions. The characteristics of these earthquakes suggest that they are not typical tectonic events. Physically analogous processes occur in hydraulic fracturing of rock formations, low-frequency icequakes in temperate glaciers, and autoresonance in hydroelectric power stations. We propose that unsteady fluid flow in volcanic conduits is the common source mechanism of low-frequency volcanic earthquakes (tremor). The fluid dynamic source mechanism explains low-frequency earthquakes of arbitrary duration, magnitude, and depth of origin, as unsteady flow is independent of physical properties of the fluid and conduit. Fluid transients occur in both low-viscosity gases and high-viscosity liquids. A fluid transient analysis can be formulated as generally as is warranted by knowledge of the composition and physical properties of the fluid, material properties, geometry and roughness of the conduit, and boundary conditions. To demonstrate the analytical potential of the fluid dynamic theory, we consider a single-phase fluid, a melt of Mount Hood andesite at 1250/sup 0/C, in which significant pressure and velocity variations occur only in the longitudinal direction. Further simplification of the conservation of mass and momentum equations presents an eigenvalue problem that is solved to determine the natural frequencies and associated damping of flow and pressure oscillations.

  16. Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

    2013-08-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg(-1)) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg(-1)). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark-in pyroclastic wounds-and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg(-1)) and bark (6.0 μg kg(-1)) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

  17. Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

  18. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1980-08-01

    An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

  19. A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

    2013-12-01

    Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

  20. Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

    2017-12-01

    Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

  1. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tullio Ricci

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

  2. QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

    2013-11-01

    One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

  3. Hazard classification methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brereton, S.J.

    1996-01-01

    This document outlines the hazard classification methodology used to determine the hazard classification of the NIF LTAB, OAB, and the support facilities on the basis of radionuclides and chemicals. The hazard classification determines the safety analysis requirements for a facility

  4. Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

    2017-12-01

    Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

  5. Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Geological Hazards (DRAFT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.

    1994-06-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed Regis. 5925638) withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 575433) of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications and open-file reports. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift, and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis). First, overviews of volcanic and earthquake activity, and details of offshore geologic hazards is provided for the Hawaiian Islands. Then, a more detailed discussion of onshore geologic hazards is presented with special emphasis on the southern third of Hawaii and the east rift

  6. NOVAC - Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change: Data archiving and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, T.; Kern, C.; Vogel, L.; Platt, U.; Johansson, M.; Galle, B.

    2009-12-01

    The potential for volcanic risk assessment using real-time gas emissions data and the recognized power of sharing data from multiple eruptive centers were the motivation for a European Union FP6 Research Program project entitled NOVAC: Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change. Starting in 2005, a worldwide network of permanent scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instruments was installed at 26 volcanoes around the world. These ground-based remote sensing instruments record the characteristic absorption of volcanic gas emissions (e.g. SO2, BrO) in the ultra-violet wavelength region. A real-time DOAS retrieval was implemented to evaluate the measured spectra, thus providing the respective observatories with gas emission data which can be used for volcanic risk assessment and hazard prediction. Observatory personnel at each partner institution were trained on technical and scientific aspects of the DOAS technique, and a central database was created to allow the exchange of data and ideas between all partners. A bilateral benefit for volcano observatories as well as scientific institutions (e.g. universities and research centers) resulted. Volcano observatories were provided with leading edge technology for measuring volcanic SO2 emission fluxes, and now use this technology for monitoring and risk assessment, while the involved universities and research centers are working on global studies and characterizing the atmospheric impact of the observed gas emissions. The NOVAC database takes into account that project members use the database in a variety of different ways. Therefore, the data is structured in layers, the top of which contains basic information about each instrument. The second layer contains evaluated emission data such as SO2 column densities, SO2 emission fluxes, and BrO/SO2 ratios. The lowest layer contains all spectra measured by the individual instruments. Online since the middle of 2006, the NOVAC database

  7. When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Peruzza

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017 and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude–scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014. Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M  >  6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M  <  6 local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, which dominate the hazard at the short- to mid-term exposure times considered

  8. A framework for the use of single-chemical transcriptomics data in predicting the hazards associated with complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Kuo, Byron; Yauk, Carole L; White, Paul A; Halappanavar, Sabina

    2017-07-01

    The assumption of additivity applied in the risk assessment of environmental mixtures containing carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was investigated using transcriptomics. MutaTMMouse were gavaged for 28 days with three doses of eight individual PAHs, two defined mixtures of PAHs, or coal tar, an environmentally ubiquitous complex mixture of PAHs. Microarrays were used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in lung tissue collected 3 days post-exposure. Cancer-related pathways perturbed by the individual or mixtures of PAHs were identified, and dose-response modeling of the DEGs was conducted to calculate gene/pathway benchmark doses (BMDs). Individual PAH-induced pathway perturbations (the median gene expression changes for all genes in a pathway relative to controls) and pathway BMDs were applied to models of additivity [i.e., concentration addition (CA), generalized concentration addition (GCA), and independent action (IA)] to generate predicted pathway-specific dose-response curves for each PAH mixture. The predicted and observed pathway dose-response curves were compared to assess the sensitivity of different additivity models. Transcriptomics-based additivity calculation showed that IA accurately predicted the pathway perturbations induced by all mixtures of PAHs. CA did not support the additivity assumption for the defined mixtures; however, GCA improved the CA predictions. Moreover, pathway BMDs derived for coal tar were comparable to BMDs derived from previously published coal tar-induced mouse lung tumor incidence data. These results suggest that in the absence of tumor incidence data, individual chemical-induced transcriptomics changes associated with cancer can be used to investigate the assumption of additivity and to predict the carcinogenic potential of a mixture.

  9. Role of Atmospheric Chemistry in the Climate Impacts of Stratospheric Volcanic Injections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrande, Allegra N.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    The climate impact of a volcanic eruption is known to be dependent on the size, location and timing of the eruption. However, the chemistry and composition of the volcanic plume also control its impact on climate. It is not just sulfur dioxide gas, but also the coincident emissions of water, halogens and ash that influence the radiative and climate forcing of an eruption. Improvements in the capability of models to capture aerosol microphysics, and the inclusion of chemistry and aerosol microphysics modules in Earth system models, allow us to evaluate the interaction of composition and chemistry within volcanic plumes in a new way. These modeling efforts also illustrate the role of water vapor in controlling the chemical evolution, and hence climate impacts, of the plume. A growing realization of the importance of the chemical composition of volcanic plumes is leading to a more sophisticated and realistic representation of volcanic forcing in climate simulations, which in turn aids in reconciling simulations and proxy reconstructions of the climate impacts of past volcanic eruptions. More sophisticated simulations are expected to help, eventually, with predictions of the impact on the Earth system of any future large volcanic eruptions.

  10. The role of social networks and media receptivity in predicting age of smoking initiation: a proportional hazards model of risk and protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, J B; Chen, X

    1999-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of adolescent smoking demonstrates the need to identify factors associated with early smoking initiation. Previous studies have shown that smoking by social network members and receptivity to pro-tobacco marketing are associated with smoking among adolescents. It is not clear, however, whether these variables also are associated with the age of smoking initiation. Using data from 10,030 California adolescents, this study identified significant correlates of age of smoking initiation using bivariate methods and a multivariate proportional hazards model. Age of smoking initiation was earlier among those adolescents whose friends, siblings, or parents were smokers, and among those adolescents who had a favorite tobacco advertisement, had received tobacco promotional items, or would be willing to use tobacco promotional items. Results suggest that the smoking behavior of social network members and pro-tobacco media influences are important determinants of age of smoking initiation. Because early smoking initiation is associated with higher levels of addiction in adulthood, tobacco control programs should attempt to counter these influences.

  11. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  12. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  13. Thermal vesiculation during volcanic eruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B; Johnson, Jeffrey B; Cimarelli, Corrado; Hornby, Adrian J; Kendrick, Jackie E; von Aulock, Felix W; Kennedy, Ben M; Andrews, Benjamin J; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Rhodes, Emma; Chigna, Gustavo

    2015-12-24

    Terrestrial volcanic eruptions are the consequence of magmas ascending to the surface of the Earth. This ascent is driven by buoyancy forces, which are enhanced by bubble nucleation and growth (vesiculation) that reduce the density of magma. The development of vesicularity also greatly reduces the 'strength' of magma, a material parameter controlling fragmentation and thus the explosive potential of the liquid rock. The development of vesicularity in magmas has until now been viewed (both thermodynamically and kinetically) in terms of the pressure dependence of the solubility of water in the magma, and its role in driving gas saturation, exsolution and expansion during decompression. In contrast, the possible effects of the well documented negative temperature dependence of solubility of water in magma has largely been ignored. Recently, petrological constraints have demonstrated that considerable heating of magma may indeed be a common result of the latent heat of crystallization as well as viscous and frictional heating in areas of strain localization. Here we present field and experimental observations of magma vesiculation and fragmentation resulting from heating (rather than decompression). Textural analysis of volcanic ash from Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala reveals the presence of chemically heterogeneous filaments hosting micrometre-scale vesicles. The textures mirror those developed by disequilibrium melting induced via rapid heating during fault friction experiments, demonstrating that friction can generate sufficient heat to induce melting and vesiculation of hydrated silicic magma. Consideration of the experimentally determined temperature and pressure dependence of water solubility in magma reveals that, for many ascent paths, exsolution may be more efficiently achieved by heating than by decompression. We conclude that the thermal path experienced by magma during ascent strongly controls degassing, vesiculation, magma strength and the effusive

  14. Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

    2016-04-01

    The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall

  15. Submarine earthquake rupture, active faulting and volcanism along the major Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone and implications for seismic hazard assessment in the Patagonian Andes Ruptura sísmica submarina, tectónica y volcanismo activo a lo largo de la Falla Liquiñe-Ofqui e implicancias para el peligro sísmico en los Andes patagónicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Vargas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ in the Patagonian Andes is an active major transpressional intra-arc fault system along which Quaternary faulting and volcanism develop. Subaerial and submarine geomorphologic and structural characterization of latest Pleistocene-Holocene faults and monogenetic volcanoes allows us to assess geological cartography of active faults and the kinematic model for recent tectonics during postglacial times, since 12,000 cal. years BP. This allows increasing the basic geological knowledge necessary for determining the seismic hazard associated with cortical structures in the Aysén region in southern Chile. Fault cartography and field observations suggest dominant dextral-reverse strike slip along north-south and locally NNW-striking faults, dextral-normal strike slip along NE to NNE- striking faults, and sinistral strike slip along east-west faults. This kinematics is consistent with regional SW-NE shortening in the context of a major transpressional fault zone. Holocene and even historic monogenetic and sub-aquatic volcanism occurred in this tectonic setting in a close spatial relationship and probably favored by the activity and local architecture of faults. Submarine fault scarps and deformed sediments observed at the bottom of the Aysén Fjord were associated with the destructive April 2007 Mw6.2 earthquake located along the LOFZ. Our observations show that this earthquake occurred along dextral 15-20 km long N-S structure named Punta Cola Fault (PCF. This fault system is located some kilometres to the east of the main N-S Río Cuervo Fault (RCF. Most of the epicentres of the seismic swarm during 2007 were located along or in between both structures. The study area is a transference zone between N-S regional branches of the LOFZ. The cartography of fault segments proposed here together with geophysical and geologic data suggest that large earthquakes Mw6.2-6.5 can be typically expected along most of the active

  16. Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

  17. Optimal selection of the time of hazardous operations, and prediction of consequences of atmospheric releases of harmful matter: the 'Kursk' submarine study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklanov, A.; Havskov Sorensen, J.; Mahura, A.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: There are objects and events with higher than normal risks of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.) during certain periods. Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and may take place during transportation of waste or during various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is presented including two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach can be applied during the preparation stage, and the second during the operation stage. The methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the 'Kursk' nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137 Cs) show that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allow identifying the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, forecasts of possible consequences during phases of high and medium risks are performed based on a unit hypothetical release, e.g. 1 Bq. The analysis shows possible deposition fractions of 10 -11 Bq/m 2 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10 -12 -10 -13 Bq/m 2 for the remote areas of Scandinavia and Northwest Russia. The methodology may be applied to any potentially dangerous object involving a risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature. In the present paper, the methodology is applied to the handling of the

  18. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  19. Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear-waste repository in the southern Great Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Carr, W.J.

    1980-01-01

    Volcanic hazard studies of the southern Great Basin are being conducted on behalf of the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations program. Current work is chiefly concerned with characterizing the geology, chronology, and tectonic setting of Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism in the Nevada Test Site region, and assessing volcanic risk through consequence and probability studies, particularly with respect to a potential site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site. Young ( - 6 volcanic events per year. Based on this rate, the annual probability of disruption of a 10-km 2 repository located within a 25-km radius circle centered at Yucca Mountain, southwestern Nevada Test Site, is 10 - 8 . A larger area, 50-km radius, yields a disruption probability of 10 - 9 per year. Current tectonic zonation studies of the southern Great Basin will reduce the calculated probabilities of basaltic eruption for certain areas. 21 references, 3 figures

  20. Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, Natalia I.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca H.; Blake, Daniel M.; Davies, Alistair J.; Hayes, Josh L.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas M.; Castelino, Renella; Kennedy, Ben M.; Muspratt, Scott; Woods, Richard

    2017-04-01

    What happens when a city has a volcanic eruption within its boundaries? To explore the consequences of this rare but potentially catastrophic combination, we develop a detailed multi-hazard scenario of an Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) eruption; the AVF underlies New Zealand's largest city, Auckland. We start with an existing AVF unrest scenario sequence and develop it through a month-long hypothetical eruption based on geologic investigations of the AVF and historic similar eruptions from around the world. We devise a credible eruption sequence and include all volcanic hazards that could occur in an AVF eruption. In consultation with Civil Defence and Emergency Management staff, we create a series of evacuation maps for before, during, and after the hypothetical eruption sequence. Our result is a versatile scenario with many possible applications, developed further in companion papers that explore eruption consequences on transportation and water networks. However, here we illustrate one application: evaluating the consequences of an eruption on electricity service provision. In a collaborative approach between scientists and electricity service providers, we evaluate the impact of the hypothetical eruption to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. We then evaluate how the impacted network functions, accounting for network adaptations (e.g., diverting power away from evacuated areas), site access, and restoration factors. We present a series of regional maps showing areas with full service, rolling outages, and no power as a result of the eruption. This illustrative example demonstrates how a detailed scenario can be used to further understand the ramifications of urban volcanism on local and regional populations, and highlights the importance of looking beyond damage to explore the consequences of volcanism.

  1. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  2. Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid based upon the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction's (IRI) Weighted Anomaly...

  3. Electrostatic phenomena in volcanic eruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lane, S J; James, M R; Gilbert, J S, E-mail: s.lane@lancaster.ac.uk [Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ (United Kingdom)

    2011-06-23

    Electrostatic phenomena have long been associated with the explosive eruption of volcanoes. Lightning generated in volcanic plumes is a spectacular atmospheric electrical event that requires development of large potential gradients over distances of up to kilometres. This process begins as hydrated liquid rock (magma) ascends towards Earth's surface. Pressure reduction causes water supersaturation in the magma and the development of bubbles of supercritical water, where deeper than c. 1000 m, and water vapour at shallower depths that drives flow expansion. The generation of high strain rates in the expanding bubbly magma can cause it to fracture in a brittle manner, as deformation relaxation timescales are exceeded. The brittle fracture provides the initial charge separation mechanism, known as fractoemission. The resulting mixture of charged silicate particles and ions evolves over time, generating macro-scale potential gradients in the atmosphere and driving processes such as particle aggregation. For the silicate particles, aggregation driven by electrostatic effects is most significant for particles smaller than c. 100 {mu}m. Aggregation acts to change the effective aerodynamic behaviour of silicate particles, thus altering the sedimentation rates of particles from volcanic plumes from the atmosphere. The presence of liquid phases also promotes aggregation processes and lightning.

  4. Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: A Real-Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) Designed for the Operational Prediction of Hazardous Aviation Turbulence Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lux, Kevin M.; Cetola, Jeffrey D.; Huffman, Allan W.; Riordan, Allen J.; Slusser, Sarah W.; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Charney, Joseph J.; Waight, Kenneth T.

    2004-01-01

    Real-time prediction of environments predisposed to producing moderate-severe aviation turbulence is studied. We describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real time on a university work station in support of NASA Langley Research Center s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products, including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally, there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross-section plot products are provided from 16 000 to 46 000 ft in 2000-ft intervals. Products are available every 3 hours at the 60- and 30-km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15-km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.

  5. Assessment of volcanic and geothermal activity in the Pasco Basin and vicinity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    Event network analyses indicate the most likely volcanic hazard to the Pasco Basin is influx of ash fall tephra from source areas in the Cascade Range. Less likely, but still notable, is the possibility of water flooding the Pasco Basin as a result of volcanic damming of one or more major drainages in the region. The least probable hazards include (1) influx of ash flows from eruptions in the Cascade Range or the Basin and Range Province, (2) renewed flood basalt volcanism, and (3) breaching of a repository by a dike or fissure. It is highly unlikely that volcanism will pose a direct threat to the integrity of any nuclear waste repositories in the Pasco Basin. Low-temperature geothermal water (20 degrees--90 degrees C) is present at random locations within the Pasco Basin and vicinity. This water may represent a potential resource only for direct heating purposes. Available data indicate no geothermal reservoirs with temperatures high enough and depths shallow enough for economical production of electricity are present within the Pasco Basin. 70 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  6. Multi-disciplinary approach in volcanic areas: case study of Kamchatka, Far East of Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Elena

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic ash is associated with a considerable proportion of the Earth's land surface. At the same time, it is estimated that 15% of the land surface is affected by permafrost and glacial ice. As a consequences volcanic ash may play an important role in the aggradation and degradation of cold regions (Kellerer-Pirklbauer et al., 2007; Froese et al., 2008). An understanding of the influence of volcanic ash on these frozen areas allows for more accurate prediction of their stability in the future and provides a better knowledge of the factors affecting past climates, soils and soil stability. Vital to making accurate predictions is an understanding of the thermal properties of volcanic ash (Juen et al., 2013). For example, even for the same region of Kamchatka in eastern Russia volcanic ash may have not only different ages, different chemical composition of the glass, but also different weathering stages, mineralogical composition, and water saturation, furthermore, these ashes may be permanently frozen or unfrozen, all of which may affect their thermal properties (Kuznetsova & Motenko, 2014). These differences might be the reason why the critical thickness of tephra, at which the effect on ice and snow is rather insulating than ablative, for the volcanic material from different volcanoes may vary so much. The determined values of critical thickness deviate from 24 mm reported by Driedger (1980) for the glaciers at Mt. St. Helens, USA, and by (Manville et al., 2000) for tephra erupted in 1996 by Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand, to weathering and new minerals formation (e.g. allophane, palagonite). The special properties of volcanic ash are critically reviewed particularly in relation to recent research in Kamchatka in the Far East of Russia. Of particular importance are the thermal properties and the unfrozen water contents of ash layers and the rate at which the weathering of volcanic glass takes place.

  7. Temporal evolution of the Roccamonfina volcanic complex (Pleistocene), Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouchon, V.; Gillot, P. Y.; Quidelleur, X.; Chiesa, S.; Floris, B.

    2008-10-01

    The Roccamonfina volcanic complex (RVC), in southern Italy, is an Early to Middle Pleistocene stratovolcano sharing temporal and morphological characteristics with the Somma-Vesuvius and the Alban Hills; both being associated with high volcanic hazard for the cities of Naples and Rome, respectively. The RVC is important for the understanding of volcanic evolution in the Roman and Campanian volcanic provinces. We report a comprehensive study of its evolution based on morphological, geochemical and K-Ar geochronological data. The RVC was active from c.a. 550 ka to 150 ka. Its evolution is divided into five stages, defining a volcanic pulse recurrence time of c.a. 90-100 kyr. The two initial stages, consisted in the construction of two successive stratovolcanoes of the tephrite-phonolite, namely "High-K series". The first stage was terminated by a major plinian eruption emplacing the trachytic Rio Rava pumices at 439 ± 9 ka. At the end of the second stage, the last High-K series stratovolcano was destroyed by a large sector collapse and the emplacement of the Brown Leucitic Tuff (BLT) at 353 ± 5 ka. The central caldera of the RVC is the result of the overlapping of the Rio Rava and of the BLT explosions. The plinian eruption of the BLT is related to the emptying of a stratified, deep-seated HKS magma chamber during the upwelling of K series (KS) magma, marking a major geochemical transition and plumbing system re-organization. The following stage was responsible for the emplacement of the Lower White Trachytic Tuff at 331 ± 2 ka, and of basaltic-trachytic effusive products erupted through the main vent. The subsequent activity was mainly restricted to the emplacement of basaltic-shoshonitic parasitic cones and lava flows, and of minor subplinian deposits of the Upper White Trachytic Tuff between 275 and 230 ka. The northern crater is most probably a maar that formed by the phreatomagmatic explosion of the Yellow Trachytic Tuff at 230 ka. The latest stage of

  8. Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, R.G.; Gregory, R.T.; Brown, G.F.

    2016-01-01

    The Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia cover about 90,000 km2, one of the largest areas of alkali olivine basalt in the world. These volcanic rocks are in 13 separate fields near the eastern coast of the Red Sea and in the western Arabian Peninsula highlands from Syria southward to the Yemen Arab Republic.

  9. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

  10. Quaternary basaltic volcanism in the Payenia volcanic province, Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søager, Nina

    primitive basalts and trachybasalts but also more evolved samples from the retroarc region and the larger volcanoes Payún Matrú and Payún Liso are presented. The samples cover a broad range of compositions from intraplate lavas similar to ocean island basalts to arc andesites. A common feature found...... are isotopically similar to the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone arc rocks and their mantle source possibly resembled the source of South Atlantic N-MORB prior to addition of fluids and melts from the subduction channel. However, it must have been more enriched than the estimates of depleted upper mantle from...... the lithosphere is thinnest and possibly in areas of elevated mantle temperatures. The pyroxenite melts formed at deeper levels react with the surrounding peridotite and thereby changes composition leading to eruption of melts which experienced variable degrees of melt-peridotite interaction. This can presumably...

  11. Fault propagation folds induced by gravitational failure and slumping of the Central Costa Rica volcanic range: Implications for large terrestrial and Martian volcanic edifices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgia, A.; Burr, J.; Montero, W.; Morales, L.D.; Alvarado, G.E.

    1990-01-01

    Long sublinear ridges and related scarps located at the base of large volcanic structures are frequently interpreted as normal faults associated with extensional regional stress. In contrast, the ridges bordering the Central Costa Rica volcanic range (CCRVR) are the topographic expression of hanging wall asymmetric angular anticlines overlying low-angle thrust faults at the base of the range. These faults formed by gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of the range due to the weight of the volcanic edifices and were perhaps triggered by the intrusion of magma over the past 20,000 years. These anticlines are hypothesized to occur along the base of the volcano, where the thrust faults ramp up toward the sea bottom. Ridges and scarps between 2,000 and 5,000 m below sea level are interpreted as the topographic expression of these folds. The authors further suggest that the scarps of the CCRVR and valid scaled terrestrial analogs of the perimeter scarp of the Martian volcano Olympus Mons. They suggest that the crust below Olympus Mons has failed under the load of the volcano, triggering the radial slumping of the flanks of the volcano on basal thrusts. The thrusting would have, in turn, formed the anticlinal ridges and scarps that surround the edifice. The thrust faults may extend all the way to the base of the Martian crust (about 40 km), and they may have been active until almost the end of the volcanic activity. They suggest that gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of volcanoes is a process common to most large volcanic edifices. In the CCRVR this slumping of the flanks is a slow intermittent process, but it could evolve to rapid massive avalanching leading to catastrophic eruptions. Thus monitoring of uplift and displacement of the folds related to the slump tectonics could become an additional effective method for mitigating volcanic hazards

  12. Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

  13. Visualizing Volcanic Clouds in the Atmosphere and Their Impact on Air Traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, Tobias; Schulze, Maik; Friederici, Anke; Theisel, Holger

    2016-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are not only hazardous in the direct vicinity of a volcano, but they also affect the climate and air travel for great distances. This article sheds light on the Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro eruptions in 2011. The authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of Nabro's sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. The results here were developed for the 2014 IEEE Scientific Visualization Contest, which centers around the fusion of multiple satellite data modalities to reconstruct and assess the movement of volcanic ash and sulfate aerosol emissions. Using data from three volcanic eruptions that occurred in the span of approximately three weeks, the authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. This video provides animations of the reconstructed ash clouds. https://youtu.be/D9DvJ5AvZAs.

  14. PREDICTION OF AEROSOL HAZARDS ARISING FROM THE OPENING OF AN ANTHRAX-TAINTED LETTER IN AN OPEN OFFICE ENVIRONMENT USING COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FUE-SANG LIEN

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Early experimental work, conducted at Defence R&D Canada–Suffield, measured and characterized the personal and environmental contamination associated with simulated anthrax-tainted letters under a number of different scenarios in order to obtain a better understanding of the physical and biological processes for detecting, assessing, and formulating potential mitigation strategies for managing the risks associated with opening an anthrax-tainted letter. These experimental investigations have been extended in the present study to simulate numerically the contamination from the opening of anthrax-tainted letters in an open office environment using computational fluid dynamics (CFD. A quantity of 0.1 g of Bacillus atropheus (formerly referred to as Bacillus subtilis var globigii (BG spores in dry powder form, which was used here as a surrogate species for Bacillus anthracis (anthrax, was released from an opened letter in the experiment. The accuracy of the model for prediction of the spatial distribution of BG spores in the office from the opened letter is assessed qualitatively (and to the extent possible, quantitatively by detailed comparison with measured BG concentrations obtained under a number of different scenarios, some involving people moving within the office. The observed discrepancy between the numerical predictions and experimental measurements of concentration was probably the result of a number of physical processes which were not accounted for in the numerical simulation. These include air flow leakage from cracks and crevices of the building shell; the dispersion of BG spores in the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC system; and, the effect of deposition and re-suspension of BG spores from various surfaces in the office environment.

  15. Historic hydrovolcanism at Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for eruption hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Németh, Károly; Geyer, Adelina; Álvarez-Valero, Antonio M.; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Bartolini, Stefania

    2018-01-01

    Deception Island (Antarctica) is the southernmost island of the South Shetland Archipelago in the South Atlantic. Volcanic activity since the eighteenth century, along with the latest volcanic unrest episodes in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, demonstrates that the volcanic system is still active and that future eruptions are likely. Despite its remote location, the South Shetland Islands are an important touristic destination during the austral summer. In addition, they host several research stations and three summer field camps. Deception Island is characterised by a Quaternary caldera system with a post-caldera succession and is considered to be part of an active, dispersed (monogenetic), volcanic field. Historical post-caldera volcanism on Deception Island involves monogenetic small-volume (VEI 2-3) eruptions such forming cones and various types of hydrovolcanic edifices. The scientific stations on the island were destroyed, or severely damaged, during the eruptions in 1967, 1969, and 1970 mainly due to explosive activity triggered by the interaction of rising (or erupting) magma with surface water, shallow groundwater, and ice. We conducted a detailed revision (field petrology and geochemistry) of the historical hydrovolcanic post-caldera eruptions of Deception Island with the aim to understand the dynamics of magma-water interaction, as well as characterise the most likely eruptive scenarios from future eruptions. We specifically focused on the Crimson Hill (estimated age between 1825 and 1829), and Kroner Lake (estimated age between 1829 and 1912) eruptions and 1967, 1969, and 1970 events by describing the eruption mechanisms related to the island's hydrovolcanic activity. Data suggest that the main hazards posed by volcanism on the island are due to fallout, ballistic blocks and bombs, and subordinate, dilute PDCs. In addition, Deception Island can be divided into five areas of expected activity due to magma-water interaction, providing additional

  16. In Situ Observations and Sampling of Volcanic Emissions with Unmanned Aircraft: A NASA/UCR Case Study at Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, David; Diaz, Jorge Andres; Bland, Geoffrey; Fladeland, Matthew; Madrigal, Yetty; Corrales, Ernesto; Alan, Alfredo; Alegria, Oscar; Realmuto, Vincent; Miles, Ted

    2011-01-01

    Burgeoning new technology in the design and development of robotic aircraft-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)-presents unprecedented opportunities for the volcanology community to observe, measure, and sample eruption plumes and drifting volcanic clouds in situ. While manned aircraft can sample dilute parts of such emissions, demonstrated hazards to air breathing, and most particularly turbine, engines preclude penetration of the zones of highest ash concentrations. Such areas within plumes are often of highest interest with respect to boundary conditions of applicable mass-loading retrieval models, as well as Lagrangian, Eulerian, and hybrid transport models used by hazard responders to predict plume trajectories, particularly in the context of airborne hazards. Before the 2010 Ejyafyallajokull eruption in Iceland, ICAO zero-ash-tolerance rules were typically followed, particularly for relatively uncrowded Pacific Rim airspace, and over North and South America, where often diversion of aircraft around ash plumes and clouds was practical. The 2010 eruption in Iceland radically changed the paradigm, in that critical airspace over continental Europe and the United Kingdom were summarily shut by local civil aviation authorities and EURO CONTROL. A strong desire emerged for better real-time knowledge of ash cloud characteristics, particularly ash concentrations, and especially for validation of orbital multispectral imaging. UAV platforms appear to provide a viable adjunct, if not a primary source, of such in situ data for volcanic plumes and drifting volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions, with prompt and comprehensive application to aviation safety and to the basic science of volcanology. Current work is underway in Costa Rica at Turrialba volcano by the authors, with the goal of developing and testing new small, economical UAV platforms, with miniaturized instrument payloads, within a volcanic plume. We are underway with bi-monthly deployments of tethered SO2-sondes

  17. Geomorphological Approach for Regional Zoning In The Merapi Volcanic Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Langgeng Wahyu Santosa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Geomorphologial approach can be used as the basic for identifying and analyzing the natural resources potentials, especially in volcanic landscape. Based on its geomorphology, Merapi volcanic landscape can be divided into 5 morphological units, i.e.: volcanic cone, volcanic slope, volcanic foot, volcanic foot plain, and fluvio-volcanic plain. Each of these morphological units has specific characteristic and natural resources potential. Based on the condition of geomorphology, the regional zoning can be compiled to support the land use planning and to maintain the conservation of environmental function in the Merapi Volcanic area.

  18. Biological and environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budinger, T.F.

    1987-01-01

    This chapter examines the biophysics of static and oscillating magnetic fields interacting with human tissue. The known or predicted efforts concern implants such as surgical clips and pacemakers, and there are potential heating effects if the radiofrequency (RF) exposure is excessive. Guidelines have been presented by various health advisory organizations in the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and Germany. Present instrumentation specifications and uses generally fall within these guidelines, which are intended to be advisories and not limits, at least in the United States. But interest in the use of fields beyond 2 T and the use of rapidly switched gradients and RF power deposition beyond the limits of the present guidelines necessitate continuing biophysical studies and investigations of adverse effects. The potential health hazards are presented under three categories: static field, time-varying fields of the gradient system, and time-varying fields of the magnetic RF system

  19. Large Volcanic Rises on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smrekar, Suzanne E.; Kiefer, Walter S.; Stofan, Ellen R.

    1997-01-01

    Large volcanic rises on Venus have been interpreted as hotspots, or the surface manifestation of mantle upwelling, on the basis of their broad topographic rises, abundant volcanism, and large positive gravity anomalies. Hotspots offer an important opportunity to study the behavior of the lithosphere in response to mantle forces. In addition to the four previously known hotspots, Atla, Bell, Beta, and western Eistla Regiones, five new probable hotspots, Dione, central Eistla, eastern Eistla, Imdr, and Themis, have been identified in the Magellan radar, gravity and topography data. These nine regions exhibit a wider range of volcano-tectonic characteristics than previously recognized for venusian hotspots, and have been classified as rift-dominated (Atla, Beta), coronae-dominated (central and eastern Eistla, Themis), or volcano-dominated (Bell, Dione, western Eistla, Imdr). The apparent depths of compensation for these regions ranges from 65 to 260 km. New estimates of the elastic thickness, using the 90 deg and order spherical harmonic field, are 15-40 km at Bell Regio, and 25 km at western Eistla Regio. Phillips et al. find a value of 30 km at Atla Regio. Numerous models of lithospheric and mantle behavior have been proposed to interpret the gravity and topography signature of the hotspots, with most studies focusing on Atla or Beta Regiones. Convective models with Earth-like parameters result in estimates of the thickness of the thermal lithosphere of approximately 100 km. Models of stagnant lid convection or thermal thinning infer the thickness of the thermal lithosphere to be 300 km or more. Without additional constraints, any of the model fits are equally valid. The thinner thermal lithosphere estimates are most consistent with the volcanic and tectonic characteristics of the hotspots. Estimates of the thermal gradient based on estimates of the elastic thickness also support a relatively thin lithosphere (Phillips et al.). The advantage of larger estimates of

  20. Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

    2009-12-01

    study was completed to help improve volcanic ash detection, forecast models and warnings and to assist policy makers and the airlines to refine preparatory measures for the prevention of future volcanic ash encounters. It’s overarching objective is not only to reduce the potentially catastrophic loss of aircraft and human life posed by the volcanic ash hazard, but more often to mitigate the economic impact from flight delays and cancellations. In that vein, this project supports Sub Goal 3A of the NASA Strategic Plan, “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.”

  1. δ18O and δD variations in some volcanic lakes on the Cameroon Volcanic Line (West-Africa: generating isotopic baseline data for volcano monitoring and surveillance in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    . Issa

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on geo-anthropological and geochemical studies, catastrophes similar to the unprecedented gas explosions in the mid-1980s from the Cameroonian killer lakes Nyos and Monoun, might occur in any of the 37 other lakes located along the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL. Because people could suffer loss and desolation from predictable catastrophes in the future, monitoring/surveillance policies must be established. Due to their location, crater lakes integrate the geochemical processes that develop in the Earth’s crust due to magmatic activities. Therefore, monitoring the surface manifestations of those deep seated and/or hydrothermal processes might reveal increases/decreases in magmatic activities. The anomalous changes in a volcanic lake induced by mixing with exogenous fluids that have a specific δ18O and δD compositional fingerprint (magmatic, metamorphic, etc. could be utilized to predict volcanic hazards. If the steady state of a lake environment and the external and intrinsic parameters that control its hydrodynamics are clearly identified and reasonably understood, the anomalous evolutionary processes that compromise its stability can be identified. This study attempts to collect the δ18O and δD data from 17 Cameroonian lakes to help establish a volcano-related monitoring/surveillance network. This work identifies the processes that control the isotopic composition of the lakes and assesses the intra-/inter- and spatial δ18O/δD variations. Almost all of the lakes contain meteoric water. These lakes are mostly isotopically stratified; epilimnia is generally more positive than the hypolimnia. However, although the rainfall is gradually depleted in heavy isotopes when moving from the South to the North due to the latitude effect, the lakes become more enriched (0.6‰/100 km due to evaporation. The evaluated impact of several parameters on the isotopic variation suggests that the hydrological setting may play an important, albeit not

  2. Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Siniscalchi

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, where intense unrest phenomena have long been recorded.

  3. Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Geological hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.; Reed, R.M.

    1995-03-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent US Geological Survey (USGS) publications and USGS open-file reports related to this project. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis).

  4. Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

    2010-11-01

    A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

  5. Dinasour extinction and volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gledhill, J. A.

    There is at present some controversy about the reason for the mass extinction of dinosaurs and other forms of life at the end of the Cretaceous. A suggestion by Alvarez et al. [1980] that this was due to the collision of the earth with a meteorite 10 km or so in diameter has excited considerable interest [Silver and Schultz, 1982] and also some criticism [Stanley, 1984]. A recent publication [Wood, 1984] describing the catastrophic effects of a relatively minor lava flow in Iceland suggests that intense volcanic activity could have played a large part in the extinctions. In this letter it is pointed out that the Deccan lava flows in India took place in the appropriate time and may well have been of sufficient magnitude to be a major factor in the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary catastrophe.

  6. Geophysics in the monitoring of natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arafin, S.

    2005-01-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions strike every year, killing thousands of people and destroying property worth billions of dollars. Some of these can be a surprise like the 2004 Asian Tsunami. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides are usually grouped into what are termed 'geo-hazards'. Because mud volcanoes do not pose any serious threat to human life and property, they are the least studied of all geo-hazards. However, the 1997 explosive eruption of the Piparo mud volcano in Trinidad, West Indies caught many scientists and planners by surprise. It was the strongest eruption of a mud volcano ever recorded, causing extensive damage to the small town of Piparo. A description of the 1997 eruption of the Piparo mud volcano and the associated land deformation, together with a three-dimensional gravity modeling of the gravitational anomaly of the nearby Tabaquite mud volcano have been presented. From the modeling, the geometry of the mud volcano has been deciphered, and it has been shown that a large, dynamic density contrast exists at the Tabaquite volcano. The existence of a large dynamic density contrast indicates that the gravity method can be used as a potential tool for monitoring mud volcanoes. (author)

  7. Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation (BanD-AID)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusche, J.; Shum, C. K.; Jenkins, C. J.; Chen, J.; Guo, J.; Hossain, F.; Braun, B.; Calmant, S.; Ballu, V.; Papa, F.; Kuhn, M.; Ahmed, R.; Khan, Z. H.; Hossain, M.; Bernzen, A.; Dai, C.; Jia, Y.; Krien, Y.; Kuo, C. Y.; Liibusk, A.; Shang, K.; Testut, L.; Tseng, K. H.; Uebbing, B.; Rietbroek, R.; Valty, P.; Wan, J.

    2016-12-01

    As a low-lying and the largest coastal deltaic region in the world, Bangladesh already faces tremendous vulnerability. Accelerated sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have exacerbated Bangladesh's coastal vulnerability. Climate change has further intensified these risks with increasing temperatures, greater rainfall volatility, and increased incidence of intensified cyclones, in addition to its seasonal transboundary monsoonal flooding. Our Belmont Forum/IGFA G8 project BanD-AiD, http://Belmont-BanDAiD.org, or http://Blemont-SeaLevel.org, comprises of an international cross-disciplinary team including stakeholders in Bangladesh, aims at a joint assessment of the physical and social science knowledge of the physical and social dynamics which govern coastal vulnerability and societal resilience in Bangladesh. We have built a prototype observational system, following the Belmont Challenge identified Earth System Analysis & Prediction System (ESAPS) for the Bangladesh Delta, to achieve the physical science objectives of the project. The prototype observational system is exportable to other regions of the world. We studied the physical causes of relative sea-level rise in coastal Bangladesh, with the goal to separate and quantify land subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise signals at adequate spatial scales using contemporary space geodetic and remote sensing data. We used a social and natural science integrative approach to investigate the various social and economic drivers behind land use change, population increase migration and community resilience to understand the social dynamics of this complex region and to forecast likely and alternative scenarios for maintaining the societal resilience of this vital region which currently houses a quarter of Bangladesh's 160 million people.

  8. Mass movement processes associated with volcanic structures in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Carlos Valerio

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Mexico City, one of the most populated areas of the world, has been affected by various hazards of natural origin, such as subsidence and cracking of the soil, seismicity, floods and mass movement processes (MMPs. Owing to the lack of space on the plain, in recent years urban growth has been concentrated particularly on the slopes of the surrounding mountain ranges, and this has significantly modified the dynamics of the relief as well as the hydrogeological conditions. The specific character of natural susceptibility to mass movements is strongly dependent on the geological–structural and morphological characteristics of the volcanic bodies that form the mountainous relief. This natural susceptibility, combined with the characteristics of vulnerability of the society, creates risk conditions that can generate severe consequences for the population and the economy. Hence, based on an inventory of mass movement processes comprising 95 data points, the present study aimed to achieve a zoning of the areas susceptible to these processes, as well as to characterize the mechanisms of instability in the volcanic structures that form the relief of the area in question. The results of this work clearly show the role of the lithology, the mode of emplacement and the morpho–structural characteristics of the volcanic structures, in the types of mass movement processes. In addition, it identifies the diverse activities of anthropogenic origin that favour slope instability in the zone: deforestation and burning of rubbish, felling of timber on the slopes for building infrastructure and dwellings, leakages of water, vibrations of vehicles, rotating machinery and the use of explosives in mining works, overloading the heads of the slopes, disturbance of the geohydrological regime, generation of rubbish tips, terracing of the slopes for cultivation, inadequate building regulations, and the use of counterproductive or ineffectual stabilization measures.

  9. Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

    2015-12-01

    The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

  10. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

  11. Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan Morzel, Lisa Ann; Shanks, W. C. Pat; Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Farrell, Jamie M.; Robinson, Joel E.

    2017-11-20

    Yellowstone National Park, a nearly 9,000 km2 (~3,468 mi2) area, was preserved in 1872 as the world’s first national park for its unique, extraordinary, and magnificent natural features. Rimmed by a crescent of older mountainous terrain, Yellowstone National Park has at its core the Quaternary Yellowstone Plateau, an undulating landscape shaped by forces of late Cenozoic explosive and effusive volcanism, on-going tectonism, glaciation, and hydrothermal activity. The Yellowstone Caldera is the centerpiece of the Yellowstone Plateau. The Yellowstone Plateau lies at the most northeastern front of the 17-Ma Yellowstone hot spot track, one of the few places on Earth where time-transgressive processes on continental crust can be observed in the volcanic and tectonic (faulting and uplift) record at the rate and direction predicted by plate motion. Over six days, this field trip presents an intensive overview into volcanism, tectonism, and hydrothermal activity on the Yellowstone Plateau (fig. 1). Field stops are linked directly to conceptual models related to monitoring of the various volcanic, geochemical, hydrothermal, and tectonic aspects of the greater Yellowstone system. Recent interest in young and possible future volcanism at Yellowstone as well as new discoveries and synthesis of previous studies, (for example, tomographic, deformation, gas, aeromagnetic, bathymetric, and seismic surveys), provide a framework in which to discuss volcanic, hydrothermal, and seismic activity in this dynamic region.

  12. Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley G.; Doubleday, Joshua R.; Chien, Steve A.

    2013-01-01

    In a volcanic emergency, time is of the essence. It is vital to quantify eruption parameters (thermal emission, effusion rate, location of activity) and distribute this information as quickly as possible to decision-makers in order to enable effective evaluation of eruption-related risk and hazard. The goal of this work was to automate and streamline processing of spacecraft hyperspectral data, automate product generation, and automate distribution of products. Visible and Short-Wave Infrared Images of volcanic eruption in Iceland in May 2010." class="caption" align="right">The software rapidly processes hyperspectral data, correcting for incident sunlight where necessary, and atmospheric transmission; detects thermally anomalous pixels; fits data with model black-body thermal emission spectra to determine radiant flux; calculates atmospheric convection thermal removal; and then calculates total heat loss. From these results, an estimation of effusion rate is made. Maps are generated of thermal emission and location (see figure). Products are posted online, and relevant parties notified. Effusion rate data are added to historical record and plotted to identify spikes in activity for persistently active eruptions. The entire process from start to end is autonomous. Future spacecraft, especially those in deep space, can react to detection of transient processes without the need to communicate with Earth, thus increasing science return. Terrestrially, this removes the need for human intervention.

  13. Microgravity change as a precursor to volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rymer, Hazel

    1994-07-01

    In recent decades, systematic microgravity studies over some 20 active volcanoes in Central America, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Papua New Guinea and the USA have provided valuable data on sub-surface mass redistribution associated with volcanic activity. Concurrent data on ground deformation are essential to the unambiguous interpretation of gravity changes. In some instances, gravity and elevation vary along the free-air or Bouguer gradients, implying that there has been no sub-surface mass or density change, respectively. Where there are residual gravity changes after correction for elevation changes, magma movements in sub-surface chambers, feeder systems, vents and fissures (dykes) or water table variations are proposed. Although detailed interpretations depend on local circumstances and the calculations depend on source geometry, in general, the smallest residual gravity changes are associated with eruptions from volatile-poor basaltic vents and at extensional rift zones, whereas the highest residual values occur at explosive, subduction-related stratocones built from volatile-rich andesitic magma. The most intriguing, yet difficult, data to interpret derive from large-volume, infrequently erupting volcanic systems where caldera unrest is now becoming well documented and the ultimate hazards are most severe. Mass increases during inflation followed by limited mass loss during subsequent deflation typify these structures.

  14. Seismic tremors and magma wagging during explosive volcanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jellinek, A Mark; Bercovici, David

    2011-02-24

    Volcanic tremor is a ubiquitous feature of explosive eruptions. This oscillation persists for minutes to weeks and is characterized by a remarkably narrow band of frequencies from about 0.5 Hz to 7 Hz (refs 1-4). Before major eruptions, tremor can occur in concert with increased gas flux and related ground deformation. Volcanic tremor is thus of particular value for eruption forecasting. Most models for volcanic tremor rely on specific properties of the geometry, structure and constitution of volcanic conduits as well as the gas content of the erupting magma. Because neither the initial structure nor the evolution of the magma-conduit system will be the same from one volcano to the next, it is surprising that tremor characteristics are so consistent among different volcanoes. Indeed, this universality of tremor properties remains a major enigma. Here we employ the contemporary view that silicic magma rises in the conduit as a columnar plug surrounded by a highly vesicular annulus of sheared bubbles. We demonstrate that, for most geologically relevant conditions, the magma column will oscillate or 'wag' against the restoring 'gas-spring' force of the annulus at observed tremor frequencies. In contrast to previous models, the magma-wagging oscillation is relatively insensitive to the conduit structure and geometry, which explains the narrow band of tremor frequencies observed around the world. Moreover, the model predicts that as an eruption proceeds there will be an upward drift in both the maximum frequency and the total signal frequency bandwidth, the nature of which depends on the explosivity of the eruption, as is often observed.

  15. The frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions in Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelley, Patrick L; Newhall, Christopher G; Bradley, Kyle E

    There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from erupti