The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Krueger, Arlin J.

1999-01-01

The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

Screening criteria of volcanic hazards aspect in the NPP site evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Siwhan

2013-01-01

Studies have been conducted on the completeness of regulation in Indonesia particularly on volcanic hazards aspects in the evaluation of nuclear power plant site. Volcanic hazard aspect needed to identify potential external hazards that may endanger the safety of the operation of nuclear power plants. There are four stages for evaluating volcanic hazards, which are initial assessment, characterization sources of volcanic activity in the future, screening volcanic hazards and assessment of capable volcanic hazards. This paper discuss the third stage of the general evaluation which is the screening procedure of volcanic hazards. BAPETEN Chairman Regulation No. 2 Year of 2008 has only one screening criteria for missile volcanic phenomena, so it required screening criteria for other hazard phenomena that are pyroclastic flow density; lava flows; avalanche debris materials; lava; opening hole new eruptions, volcano missile; tsunamis; ground deformation; and hydrothermal system and ground water anomaly. (author)

Volcanic hazards of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and adjacent areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hackett, W.R.; Smith, R.P.

1994-12-01

Potential volcanic hazards are assessed, and hazard zone maps are developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and adjacent areas. The basis of the hazards assessment and mapping is the past volcanic history of the INEL region, and the apparent similarity of INEL volcanism with equivalent, well-studied phenomena in other regions of active volcanism, particularly Hawaii and Iceland. The most significant hazards to INEL facilities are associated with basaltic volcanism, chiefly lava flows, which move slowly and mainly threaten property by inundation or burning. Related hazards are volcanic gases and tephra, and ground disturbance associated with the ascent of magma under the volcanic zones. Several volcanic zones are identified in the INEL area. These zones contain most of the volcanic vents and fissures of the region and are inferred to be the most probable sites of future INEL volcanism. Volcanic-recurrence estimates are given for each of the volcanic zones based on geochronology of the lavas, together with the results of field and petrographic investigations concerning the cogenetic relationships of INEL volcanic deposits and associated magma intrusion. Annual probabilities of basaltic volcanism within the INEL volcanic zones range from 6.2 x 10 -5 per year (average 16,000-year interval between eruptions) for the axial volcanic zone near the southern INEL boundary and the Arco volcanic-rift zone near the western INEL boundary, to 1 x 10 -5 per year (average 100,000-year interval between eruptions) for the Howe-East Butte volcanic rift zone, a geologically old and poorly defined feature of the central portion of INEL. Three volcanic hazard zone maps are developed for the INEL area: lava flow hazard zones, a tephra (volcanic ash) and gas hazard zone, and a ground-deformation hazard zone. The maps are useful in land-use planning, site selection, and safety analysis

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

2015-12-01

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

2013-04-01

Approximately 10% of the world's population lives within 100 km of historically active volcanoes. Consequently, considerable critical infrastructure is at risk of being affected by volcanic eruptions, where critical infrastructure includes: electricity and wastewater networks; water supply systems; transport routes; communications; and buildings. Appropriate risk management strategies are required to minimise the risk to infrastructure, which necessitates detailed understanding of both volcanic hazards and infrastructure parameters and vulnerabilities. To address this, we are developing a database of the physical impacts and vulnerability of critical infrastructure observed during/following historic eruptions, placed in the context of event-specific volcanic hazard and infrastructure parameters. Our database considers: volcanic hazard parameters for each case study eruption (tephra thickness, dynamic pressure of PDCs, etc.); inventory of infrastructure elements present within the study area (geographical extent, age, etc.); the type and number of impacts and disruption caused to particular infrastructure sectors; and the quantified assessment of the vulnerability of built environments. Data have been compiled from a wide range of literature, focussing in particular on impact assessment studies which document in detail the damage sustained by critical infrastructure during a given eruption. We are creating a new vulnerability ranking to quantify the vulnerability of built environments affected by volcanic eruptions. The ranking is based upon a range of physical impacts and service disruption criteria, and is assigned to each case study. This ranking will permit comparison of vulnerabilities between case studies as well as indicate expected vulnerability during future eruptions. We are also developing hazard intensity thresholds indicating when specific damage states are expected for different critical infrastructure sectors. Finally, we have developed a data quality

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit

Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

2015-12-01

Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (concern on epidemiological monitoring. In 2011 the volcanic complex Puyehue - Cordon Caulle eruption produced ashfall through plumes that reached densely populated cities like San Carlos de Bariloche and Buenos Aires. Farther away in South Africa and New Zealand ash plumes forced airlines to cancel local and international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population

Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

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Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

2001-01-01

Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations: Methods and Examples in Site Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-07-01

To provide guidance on the protection of nuclear installations against the effects of volcanoes, the IAEA published in 2012 IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. SSG-21 addresses hazards relating to volcanic phenomena, and provides recommendations and general guidance for evaluation of these hazards. Unlike seismic hazard assessments, models for volcanic hazard assessment have not undergone decades of review, evaluation and testing for suitability in evaluating hazards at proposed nuclear installations. Currently in volcanology, scientific developments and detailed methodologies to model volcanic phenomena are evolving rapidly.This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in SSG-21. Although SSG-21 develops a logical framework for conducting a volcanic hazard assessment, this publication demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations in SSG-21 through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

2014-05-01

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R. I.

2009-12-01

Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Antonio

2016-04-01

Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

2001-01-01

The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sea Eun Cho

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Connor, Charles

2014-05-01

Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Data

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Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)....

Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, David P.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McNutt, Stephen R.

2017-01-01

The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO2�

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants Program Summary - API

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP, CFDA Number: 97.039) provides grants to States and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures...

Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

2012-12-01

The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

Analysis on the Capacity Building Efforts for Mitigating Volcanic Risks during 2010 Eruption of Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SARI BAHAGIARTI KUSUMAYUDHA

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes on the World erupted again during October to November 2010. Its climax activities happened on 5th November at 00.10 pm, with different type of eruption from Mount Merapi of last 50 years. Ordinary, Mount Merapi activity starts from lava dome development, followed by dome collapse to create pyroclastic flow. This specific character of eruption is called Merapi type. The pyroclastic flows at that time killed 341 people and buried many villages on the southeastern slope, while the secondary hazard of lahar destroyed many other human settlements and infrastructures on the western slope of the volcano. Actually, capacity building program in the areas of around Mount Merapi has been established since more than 15 years ago. In most villages, there are community associations that well trained on volcanic hazard mitigation and early warning system. The association name is Association of Mountains Belt of Merapi. Map of Mount Merapi hazards was also already set by the Center of Volcanology and Geologic Disaster Mitigation. Unfortunately, human are not able to order the nature. The character of Mount Merapi eruption in the year 2010 was inconsistent. There was much higher gas pressure, much longer distant of pyroclastic flow, and much greater volume of volcanic material poured from the crater. This made people and stake holders very astonished in handling the evacuation. However, a socio-cultural factor in this respect is that the local people and agriculturists view Mount Merapi as a God which gives them fertile soil and water for agriculture and are reluctant to move away even under an impending threat of a volcanic hazard. This mind-set of people is a challenge in capacity building as the people prefer in-situ protective measures rather than moving away.

A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

2017-12-01

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

Volcanic hazards and public response

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Donald W.

1988-05-01

Although scientific understanding of volcanoes is advancing, eruptions continue to take a substantial toll of life and property. Some of these losses could be reduced by better advance preparation, more effective flow of information between scientists and public officials, and better understanding of volcanic behavior by all segments of the public. The greatest losses generally occur at volcanoes that erupt infrequently where people are not accustomed to dealing with them. Scientists sometimes tend to feel that the blame for poor decisions in emergency management lies chiefly with officials or journalists because of their failure to understand the threat. However, the underlying problem embraces a set of more complex issues comprising three pervasive factors. The first factor is the volcano: signals given by restless volcanoes are often ambiguous and difficult to interpret, especially at long-quiescent volcanoes. The second factor is people: people confront hazardous volcanoes in widely divergent ways, and many have difficulty in dealing with the uncertainties inherent in volcanic unrest. The third factor is the scientists: volcanologists correctly place their highest priority on monitoring and hazard assessment, but they sometimes fail to explain clearly their conclusions to responsible officials and the public, which may lead to inadequate public response. Of all groups in society, volcanologists have the clearest understanding of the hazards and vagaries of volcanic activity; they thereby assume an ethical obligation to convey effectively their knowledge to benefit all of society. If society resists, their obligation nevertheless remains. They must use the same ingenuity and creativity in dealing with information for the public that they use in solving scientific problems. When this falls short, even excellent scientific results may be nullified.

Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Malheiro, A.

2006-08-01

The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

2007-05-01

During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2015-04-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards: Part II. Validation of satellite-derived Volcanic Sulphur Dioxide Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Koukouli, MariLiza; Balis, Dimitris; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Clarisse, Lieven; Carboni, Elisa; Hedelt, Pascal; Spinetti, Claudia; Theys, Nicolas; Tampellini, Lucia; Zehner, Claus

2014-05-01

The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in the spring of 2010 turned the attention of both the public and the scientific community to the susceptibility of the European airspace to the outflows of large volcanic eruptions. The ash-rich plume from Eyjafjallajökull drifted towards Europe and caused major disruptions of European air traffic for several weeks affecting the everyday life of millions of people and with a strong economic impact. This unparalleled situation revealed limitations in the decision making process due to the lack of information on the tolerance to ash of commercial aircraft engines as well as limitations in the ash monitoring and prediction capabilities. The European Space Agency project Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards, was introduced to facilitate the development of an optimal End-to-End System for Volcanic Ash Plume Monitoring and Prediction. This system is based on comprehensive satellite-derived ash plume and sulphur dioxide [SO2] level estimates, as well as a widespread validation using supplementary satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements. The validation of volcanic SO2 levels extracted from the sensors GOME-2/MetopA and IASI/MetopA are shown here with emphasis on the total column observed right before, during and after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions. Co-located ground-based Brewer Spectrophotometer data extracted from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, WOUDC, were compared to the different satellite estimates. The findings are presented at length, alongside a comprehensive discussion of future scenarios.

Volcanic air pollution hazards in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

2017-04-20

Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other air pollutants emitted from Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i react with oxygen, atmospheric moisture, and sunlight to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog can negatively affect human health and agriculture, and acid rain can contaminate household water supplies by leaching metals from building and plumbing materials in rooftop rainwater-catchment systems. U.S. Geological Survey scientists, along with health professionals and local government officials are working together to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

WHC natural phenomena hazards mitigation implementation plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conrads, T.J.

1996-09-11

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature which pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado),snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strike are examples of NPH at Hanford. It is the policy of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct and operate DOE facilitiesso that workers, the public and the environment are protected from NPH and other hazards. During 1993 DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) transmitted DOE Order 5480.28, ``Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation,`` to Westinghouse Hanford COmpany (WHC) for compliance. The Order includes rigorous new NPH criteria for the design of new DOE facilities as well as for the evaluation and upgrade of existing DOE facilities. In 1995 DOE issued Order 420.1, ``Facility Safety`` which contains the same NPH requirements and invokes the same applicable standards as Order 5480.28. It will supersede Order 5480.28 when an in-force date for Order 420.1 is established through contract revision. Activities will be planned and accomplished in four phases: Mobilization; Prioritization; Evaluation; and Upgrade. The basis for the graded approach is the designation of facilities/structures into one of five performance categories based upon safety function, mission and cost. This Implementation Plan develops the program for the Prioritization Phase, as well as an overall strategy for the implemention of DOE Order 5480.2B.

Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan M. Lindsay

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick ‘em Jenny and Ronde/Caille, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past ~10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that

76 FR 61070 - Disaster Assistance; Hazard Mitigation Grant Program

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-03

...) to revise the categories of projects eligible for funding under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP). The NPRM proposed to define eligible mitigation activities under the HMGP to include minor flood... FEMA-2011-0004] RIN 1660-AA02;Formerly 3067-AC69 Disaster Assistance; Hazard Mitigation Grant Program...

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

2017-06-01

We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Stirling

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

Coping with volcanic hazards; a global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R.I.

1990-01-01

Compared to some other natural hazards-such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides- volcanic hazards strike infrequently. However, in populated areas , even very small eruptions can wreak havoc and cause widespread devastation. For example, the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia ejected only about 3 percent of the volume of ash produced during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Yet, the mudflows triggered by this tiny eruption killed more than 25,000 people.

Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

2015-04-01

Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

1983-03-01

Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

Snow avalanche hazards and mitigation in the United States

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Ground Failure Hazards Mitigation Research; Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council; Bloom, Floyd E

1990-01-01

... Failure Hazards Mitigation Research Division of Natural Hazard Mitigation Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.1990 i Copyrighttrue Please breaks inserted. are Page files. accidentally typesetting been have may original from the errors not typographic original ...

Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Bebbington, Mark S.

2015-05-01

The idea of a volcanic field `boundary' is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a `hard' boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the `gaps' between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

Fluor Daniel Hanford implementation plan for DOE Order 5480.28. Natural phenomena hazards mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrads, T.J.

1997-01-01

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public, or the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strikes are examples of NPH that could occur at the Hanford Site. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) policy requires facilities to be designed, constructed, and operated in a manner that protects workers, the public, and the environment from hazards caused by natural phenomena. DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, includes rigorous new natural phenomena criteria for the design of new DOE facilities, as well as for the evaluation and, if necessary, upgrade of existing DOE facilities. The Order was transmitted to Westinghouse Hanford Company in 1993 for compliance and is also identified in the Project Hanford Management Contract, Section J, Appendix C. Criteria and requirements of DOE Order 5480.28 are included in five standards, the last of which, DOE-STD-1023, was released in fiscal year 1996. Because the Order was released before all of its required standards were released, enforcement of the Order was waived pending release of the last standard and determination of an in-force date by DOE Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL). Agreement also was reached between the Management and Operations Contractor and DOE-RL that the Order would become enforceable for new structures, systems, and components (SSCS) 60 days following issue of a new order-based design criteria in HNF-PRO-97, Engineering Design and Evaluation. The order also requires that commitments addressing existing SSCs be included in an implementation plan that is to be issued 1 year following the release of the last standard. Subsequently, WHC-SP-1175, Westinghouse Hanford Company Implementation Plan for DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, Rev. 0, was issued in November 1996, and this document, HNF-SP-1175, Fluor Daniel Hanford

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

Assessment of Muria geochemistry evolution and related to volcanic hazard to NPP site at Muria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basuki Wibowo; June Mellawati; Heni Susiati

2011-01-01

Study of geochemistry evolution aspect in Mt. Muria cycle to predict the level of volcanic hazards posed in the future on Muria nuclear power plant site was conducted. The purpose of the study was to determine the Muria geochemistry condition, tectonic patterns and to predict the level of volcanic hazard in the future on Muria nuclear power plant sites. The methodology used is the collection of secondary data on the complex geochemical conditions Muria volcanic in their life cycle, perform correlation geochemical cycle in its path towards conditions that most likely experienced tectonic, volcanic, and interpretation of the hazard posed. The study shows that geochemical conditions in Muria Volcano complex composed of potassium, low-yield product predicted high-temperature molten magma (decompression) and high potassium levels (compression). Pattern of tectonic decompression geochemical conditions associated with low potassium in Muria old, while the pattern of tectonic compression geochemical conditions associated with high potassium in young Muria. The level of volcanic hazard in the future indicated by the nature of non capable of Mt. Muria. (author)

Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

2014-12-01

Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

Rainfall-triggered landslides, anthropogenic hazards, and mitigation strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. C. Larsen

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Rainfall-triggered landslides are part of a natural process of hillslope erosion that can result in catastrophic loss of life and extensive property damage in mountainous, densely populated areas. As global population expansion on or near steep hillslopes continues, the human and economic costs associated with landslides will increase. Landslide hazard mitigation strategies generally involve hazard assessment mapping, warning systems, control structures, and regional landslide planning and policy development. To be sustainable, hazard mitigation requires that management of natural resources is closely connected to local economic and social interests. A successful strategy is dependent on a combination of multi-disciplinary scientific and engineering approaches, and the political will to take action at the local community to national scale.

Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Van Eaton, Alexa; Amigo, Álvaro; Bertin, Daniel; Mastin, Larry G.; Giacosa, Raúl E; González, Jerónimo; Valderrama, Oscar; Fontijn, Karen; Behnke, Sonja A

2016-01-01

Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

2016-02-01

During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Douglas R.; Polk, James D.

2005-01-01

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off

UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry

2005-01-01

Basaltic volcanism poses a potential hazard to the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository because multiple episodes of basaltic volcanism have occurred in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) in the past 11 Ma. Intervals between eruptive episodes average about 1 Ma. Three episodes have occurred in the Quaternary at approximately 1.1 Ma (5 volcanoes), 350 ka (2 volcanoes), and 80 ka (1 volcano). Because Yucca Mountain lies within the Basin and Range Province, a significant portion of the pre-Quaternary volcanic history of the YMR may be buried in alluvial-filled basins. An exceptionally high-resolution aeromagnetic survey and subsequent drilling program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began in 2004 and is gathering data that will enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene and Miocene volcanism in the region (Figure 1). DOE has convened a ten-member expert panel of earth scientists that will use the information gathered to update probabilistic volcanic hazard estimates originally obtained by expert elicitation in 1996. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-trending ridges of eastward-tilted fault blocks that are bounded by north to northeast-trending normal faults. Topographic basins filled with up to 500 m of alluvium surround it to the east, south and west. In the past several decades, nearly 50 holes have been drilled in these basins, mainly for Yucca Mountain Project Site Characterization and the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program. Several of these drill holes have penetrated relatively deeply buried (300-400 m) Miocene basalt; a Pliocene basalt dated at 3.8 Ma was encountered at a relatively shallow depth (100 m) in the northern Amargosa Desert (Anomaly B in Figure 1). The current drilling program is the first to specifically target and characterize buried basalt. Based on the new aeromagnetic survey and previous air and ground magnetic surveys (Connor et al. 2000; O'Leary et al. 2002), at least eight drill

Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrads, T.J.

1998-01-01

This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

Collaborative Monitoring and Hazard Mitigation at Fuego Volcano, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Lyons, J. J.; Bluth, G. J.; Rose, W. I.; Patrick, M.; Johnson, J. B.; Stix, J.

2007-05-01

A portable, digital sensor network has been installed to closely monitor changing activity at Fuego volcano, which takes advantage of an international collaborative effort among Guatemala, U.S. and Canadian universities, and the Peace Corps. The goal of this effort is to improve the understanding shallow internal processes, and consequently to more effectively mitigate volcanic hazards. Fuego volcano has had more than 60 historical eruptions and nearly-continuous activity make it an ideal laboratory to study volcanic processes. Close monitoring is needed to identify base-line activity, and rapidly identify and disseminate changes in the activity which might threaten nearby communities. The sensor network is comprised of a miniature DOAS ultraviolet spectrometer fitted with a system for automated plume scans, a digital video camera, and two seismo-acoustic stations and portable dataloggers. These sensors are on loan from scientists who visited Fuego during short field seasons and donated use of their sensors to a resident Peace Corps Masters International student from Michigan Technological University for extended data collection. The sensor network is based around the local volcano observatory maintained by Instituto National de Sismologia, Vulcanologia, Metrologia e Hidrologia (INSIVUMEH). INSIVUMEH provides local support and historical knowledge of Fuego activity as well as a secure location for storage of scientific equipment, data processing, and charging of the batteries that power the sensors. The complete sensor network came online in mid-February 2007 and here we present preliminary results from concurrent gas, seismic, and acoustic monitoring of activity from Fuego volcano.

Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

2010-09-01

The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

Third DOE natural phenomena hazards mitigation conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This conference on Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation has been organized into 15 presentation, panel, and poster sessions. The sessions included an overview of activities at DOE Headquarters; natural phenomena hazards tasks underway for DOE; two sessions on codes, standards, orders, criteria, and guidelines; two sessions on seismic hazards; equipment qualification; wind; PRA and margin assessments; modifications, retrofit, and restart; underground structures with a panel discussion; seismic analysis; seismic evaluation and design; and a poster session. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program - Property Acquisitions

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — HMGP provides grants to states and local governments to implement long-term hazard mitigation measures after a major disaster declaration. The HMGP is one of three...

ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

2016-08-01

Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

1990-07-01

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

2015-04-01

Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-05-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

Chronology of the 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano, Japan: geological background, mechanism of volcanic unrest and disaster mitigation measures during the crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Mannen, Kazutaka; Yukutake, Yohei; Kikugawa, George; Harada, Masatake; Itadera, Kazuhiro; Takenaka, Jun

2018-04-01

The 2015 eruption of Hakone volcano was a very small phreatic eruption, with total erupted ash estimated to be in the order of only 102 m3 and ballistic blocks reaching less than 30 m from the vent. Precursors, however, had been recognized at least 2 months before the eruption and mitigation measures were taken by the local governments well in advance. In this paper, the course of precursors, the eruption and the post-eruptive volcanic activity are reviewed, and a preliminary model for the magma-hydrothermal process that caused the unrest and eruption is proposed. Also, mitigation measures taken during the unrest and eruption are summarized and discussed. The first precursors observed were an inflation of the deep source and deep low-frequency earthquakes in early April 2015; an earthquake swarm then started in late April. On May 3, steam wells in Owakudani, the largest fumarolic area on the volcano, started to blowout. Seismicity reached its maximum in mid-May and gradually decreased; however, at 7:32 local time on June 29, a shallow open crack was formed just beneath Owakudani as inferred from sudden tilt change and InSAR analysis. The same day mud flows and/or debris flows likely started before 11:00 and ash emission began at about 12:30. The volcanic unrest and the eruption of 2015 can be interpreted as a pressure increase in the hydrothermal system, which was triggered by magma replenishment to a deep magma chamber. Such a pressure increase was also inferred from the 2001 unrest and other minor unrests of Hakone volcano during the twenty-first century. In fact, monitoring of repeated periods of unrest enabled alerting prior to the 2015 eruption. However, since open crack formation seems to occur haphazardly, eruption prediction remains impossible and evacuation in the early phase of volcanic unrest is the only way to mitigate volcanic hazard.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

2009-12-01

Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

Hazard Potential of Volcanic Flank Collapses Raised by New Megatsunami Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Ramalho, R. S.; Winckler, G.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Hipólito, A.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.; Schaefer, J. M.

2015-12-01

Large-scale gravitational flank collapses of steep volcanic islands are hypothetically capable of triggering megatsunamis with highly catastrophic effects. Yet evidence for the existence and impact of collapsed-triggered megatsunamis and their run-up heights remains scarce and/or is highly contentious. Therefore a considerable debate still exists over the potential magnitude of collapse-triggered tsunamis and their inherent hazard. In particular, doubts still remain whether or not large-scale flank failures typically generate enough volume flux to result in megatsunamis, or alternatively operate by slow-moving or multiple smaller episodic failures with much lower tsunamigenic potential. Here we show that one of the tallest and most active oceanic volcanoes on Earth - Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands - collapsed catastrophically and triggered a megatsunami with devastating near-field effects ~73,000 years ago. Our deductions are based on the recent discovery and cosmogenic 3He dating of tsunamigenic deposits - comprising fields of stranded megaclasts, chaotic conglomerates, and sand sheets - found on the adjacent Santiago Island, which attest to the impact of this megatsunami and document wave run-up heights exceeding 270 m. The evidence reported here implies that Fogo's flank failure involved at least one sudden and voluminous event that resulted in a megatsunami, in contrast to what has been suggested before. Our work thus provides another line of evidence that large-scale flank failures at steep volcanic islands may indeed happen catastrophically and are capable of triggering tsunamis of enormous height and energy. This new line of evidence therefore reinforces the hazard potential of volcanic island collapses and stands as a warning that such hazard should not be underestimated, particularly in areas where volcanic island edifices are close to other islands or to highly populated continental margins.

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Gunkel

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO₂ occur, and an accumulation of CO₂ in the deep water body must be taken into account.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO₂ degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of

Transport and Reactivity of Decontaminants to Provide Hazard Mitigation of Chemical Warfare Agents from Materials

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Transport and Reactivity of Decontaminants to Provide Hazard Mitigation of Chemical Warfare Agents from Materials 5a...directions for future decontamination formulation approaches. 15. SUBJECT TERMS GD HD Decontamination Hazard mitigation VX Chemical warfare agent... DECONTAMINANTS TO PROVIDE HAZARD MITIGATION OF CHEMICAL WARFARE AGENTS FROM MATERIALS 1. INTRODUCTION Decontamination of materials is the

The price of safety: costs for mitigating and coping with Alpine hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Thieken, A. H.

2013-10-01

Due to limited public budgets and the need to economize, the analysis of costs of hazard mitigation and emergency management of natural hazards becomes increasingly important for public natural hazard and risk management. In recent years there has been a growing body of literature on the estimation of losses which supported to help to determine benefits of measures in terms of prevented losses. On the contrary, the costs of mitigation are hardly addressed. This paper thus aims to shed some light on expenses for mitigation and emergency services. For this, we analysed the annual costs of mitigation efforts in four regions/countries of the Alpine Arc: Bavaria (Germany), Tyrol (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy) and Switzerland. On the basis of PPP values (purchasing power parities), annual expenses on public safety ranged from EUR 44 per capita in the Free State of Bavaria to EUR 216 in the Autonomous Province of South Tyrol. To analyse the (variable) costs for emergency services in case of an event, we used detailed data from the 2005 floods in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria) as well as aggregated data from the 2002 floods in Germany. The analysis revealed that multi-hazards, the occurrence and intermixture of different natural hazard processes, contribute to increasing emergency costs. Based on these findings, research gaps and recommendations for costing Alpine natural hazards are discussed.

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. Volume II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Wohletz, K.H.; Vaniman, D.T.; Gladney, E.; Bower, N.

1986-01-01

Volcanic hazard investigations during FY 1984 focused on five topics: the emplacement mechanism of shallow basalt intrusions, geochemical trends through time for volcanic fields of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone, the possibility of bimodal basalt-rhyolite volcanism, the age and process of enrichment for incompatible elements in young basalts of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region, and the possibility of hydrovolcanic activity. The stress regime of Yucca Mountain may favor formation of shallow basalt intrusions. However, combined field and drill-hole studies suggest shallow basalt intrusions are rare in the geologic record of the southern Great Basin. The geochemical patterns of basaltic volcanism through time in the NTS region provide no evidence for evolution toward a large-volume volcanic field or increases in future rates of volcanism. Existing data are consistent with a declining volcanic system comparable to the late stages of the southern Death Valley volcanic field. The hazards of bimodal volcanism in this area are judged to be low. The source of a 6-Myr pumice discovered in alluvial deposits of Crater Flat has not been found. Geochemical studies show that the enrichment of trace elements in the younger rift basalts must be related to an enrichment of their mantle source rocks. This geochemical enrichment event, which may have been metasomatic alteration, predates the basalts of the silicic episode and is, therefore, not a young event. Studies of crater dimensions of hydrovolcanic landforms indicate that the worst case scenario (exhumation of a repository at Yucca Mountain by hydrovolcanic explosions) is unlikely. Theoretical models of melt-water vapor explosions, particularly the thermal detonation model, suggest hydrovolcanic explosion are possible at Yucca Mountain. 80 refs., 21 figs., 5 tabs

Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, R.C.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) Data

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL). The...

FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Repetitive Flood Claims (RFC) Data

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Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Repetitive Flood Claims (RFC). The...

Mitigation of the most hazardous tank at the Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reynolds, D.A.

1994-09-01

Various tanks at the Hanford Site have been declared to be unresolved safety problems. This means that the tank has the potential to be beyond the limits covered by the current safety documentation. Tank 241-SY-101 poses the greatest hazard. The waste stored in this tank has periodically released hydrogen gas which exceeds the lower flammable limits. A mixer pump was installed in this tank to stir the waste. Stirring the waste would allow the hydrogen to be released slowly in a controlled manner and mitigate the hazard associated with this tank. The testing of this mixer pump is reported in this document. The mixer pump has been successful in controlling the hydrogen concentration in the tank dome to below the flammable limit which has mitigated the hazardous gas releases

Washington Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, T. J.; Schelling, J.

2012-12-01

Washington State has participated in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) since its inception in 1995. We have participated in the tsunami inundation hazard mapping, evacuation planning, education, and outreach efforts that generally characterize the NTHMP efforts. We have also investigated hazards of significant interest to the Pacific Northwest. The hazard from locally generated earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone, which threatens tsunami inundation in less than hour following a magnitude 9 earthquake, creates special problems for low-lying accretionary shoreforms in Washington, such as the spits of Long Beach and Ocean Shores, where high ground is not accessible within the limited time available for evacuation. To ameliorate this problem, we convened a panel of the Applied Technology Council to develop guidelines for construction of facilities for vertical evacuation from tsunamis, published as FEMA 646, now incorporated in the International Building Code as Appendix M. We followed this with a program called Project Safe Haven (http://www.facebook.com/ProjectSafeHaven) to site such facilities along the Washington coast in appropriate locations and appropriate designs to blend with the local communities, as chosen by the citizens. This has now been completed for the entire outer coast of Washington. In conjunction with this effort, we have evaluated the potential for earthquake-induced ground failures in and near tsunami hazard zones to help develop cost estimates for these structures and to establish appropriate tsunami evacuation routes and evacuation assembly areas that are likely to to be available after a major subduction zone earthquake. We intend to continue these geotechnical evaluations for all tsunami hazard zones in Washington.

Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

2012-12-01

The Ceboruco Volcano (21° 7.688 N, 104° 30.773 W) is located in the northwestern part of the Tepic-Zacoalco graben. Its volcanic activity can be divided in four eruptive cycles differentiated by their VEI and chemical variations as well. As a result of andesitic effusive activity, the "paleo-Ceboruco" edifice was constructed during the first cycle. The end of this cycle is defined by a plinian eruption (VEI between 3 and 4) which occurred some 1020 years ago and formed the external caldera. During the second cycle an andesitic dome built up in the interior of the caldera. The dome collapsed and formed the internal caldera. The third cycle is represented by andesitic lava flows which partially cover the northern and south-southwestern part of the edifice. The last cycle is represented by the andesitic lava flows of the nineteenth century located in the southwestern flank of the volcano. Actually, moderate fumarolic activity occurs in the upper part of the volcano showing temperatures ranging between 20° and 120°C. Some volcanic high frequency tremors have also been registered near the edifice. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 1998, where we identify with SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east sides of the Ceboruco volcano. The population inhabiting the area is 70,224 people in 2010, concentrated in 107 localities and growing at an annual rate of 0.37%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by highway, high road, railroad, and the construction of new highway to Puerto Vallarta, which is built in the southeast sector of the volcano and electrical infrastructure that connect the Cajon and Yesca Dams to Guadalajara city. The most important economic activity in the area is agriculture, with crops of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum), corn, and jamaica

Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards and success stories in disaster prevention and mitigation in the Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

2016-04-01

The Philippines, being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property in the country. In 2011, after tropical storm Washi devastated cities in southern Philippines, the Department of Science and Technology put in place a responsive program to warn and give communities hours-in-advance lead-time to prepare for imminent hazards and use advanced science and technology to enhance geohazard maps for more effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Since its launch, there have been many success stories on the use of Project NOAH, which after Typhoon Haiyan was integrated into the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) system of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the government agency tasked to prepare for, and respond to, natural calamities. Learning from past disasters, NDRRMC now issues warnings, through scientific advise from DOST-Project NOAH and PAGASA (Philippine Weather Bureau) that are hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound. Severe weather events in 2015 generated dangerous hazard phenomena such as widespread floods and massive debris flows, which if not for timely, accessible and understandable warnings, could have turned into disasters. We call these events as "disasters that did not happen". The innovative warning system of the Philippine government has so far proven effective in addressing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and can be employed elsewhere in the world.

Volcanic-Ash Hazards to Aviation—Changes and Challenges since the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, M.; Tupper, A.; Mastin, L. G.; Lechner, P.

2012-12-01

In response to the severe disruptions to civil aviation that resulted from atmospheric transport of ash from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) quickly formed the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF), charging it to support the accelerated development of a global risk-management framework for volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. Recognizing the need for scientifically based advice on best methods to detect ash in the atmosphere and depict zones of hazardous airspace, the IVATF sought input from the global scientific community, primarily by means of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group which was established in May 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics to serve as a scientific resource for ICAO. The IVATF finished its work in June 2012 (see http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/ivatf/Pages/default.aspx for a record of its results). A major science-based outcome is that production of charts depicting areas of airspace expected to have specific ash-concentration values (e.g. 4 mg/cu. m) will not be required of the world's nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). The VAACs are responsible for issuing warning information to the aviation sector regarding ash-cloud position and expected movement. Forecast concentrations in these charts are based primarily on dispersion models that have at least an order of magnitude in uncertainty in their output and therefore do not delineate hazardous airspace with the level of confidence needed by the aviation sector. The recommended approach to improving model-forecast accuracy is to assimilate diverse observations (e.g., satellite thermal-infrared measurements, lidar, radar, direct airborne sampling, visual sightings, etc.) into model simulations; doing that during an eruption in the demanding environment of aviation operations is a substantial challenge. A

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Sobradelo

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

75 FR 29569 - Recovery Policy RP9526.1, Hazard Mitigation Funding Under Section 406 (Stafford Act)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-26

...] Recovery Policy RP9526.1, Hazard Mitigation Funding Under Section 406 (Stafford Act) AGENCY: Federal... the final Recovery Policy RP9526.1, Hazard Mitigation Funding Under Section 406 (Stafford Act), which... mitigation discretionary funding available under Section 406 of the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and...

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

Science.gov (United States)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

The 3D Elevation Program—Landslide recognition, hazard assessment, and mitigation support

Science.gov (United States)

Lukas, Vicki; Carswell, Jr., William J.

2017-01-27

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Program conducts landslide hazard assessments, pursues landslide investigations and forecasts, provides technical assistance to respond to landslide emergencies, and engages in outreach. All of these activities benefit from the availability of high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) elevation information in the form of light detection and ranging (lidar) data and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) data. Research on landslide processes addresses critical questions of where and when landslides are likely to occur as well as their size, speed, and effects. This understanding informs the development of methods and tools for hazard assessment and situational awareness used to guide efforts to avoid or mitigate landslide impacts. Such research is essential for the USGS to provide improved information on landslide potential associated with severe storms, earthquakes, volcanic activity, coastal wave erosion, and wildfire burn areas.Decisionmakers in government and the private sector increasingly depend on information the USGS provides before, during, and following disasters so that communities can live, work, travel, and build safely. The USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) provides the programmatic infrastructure to generate and supply lidar-derived superior terrain data to address landslide applications and a wide range of other urgent needs nationwide. By providing data to users, 3DEP reduces users’ costs and risks and allows them to concentrate on their mission objectives. 3DEP includes (1) data acquisition partnerships that leverage funding, (2) contracts with experienced private mapping firms, (3) technical expertise, lidar data standards, and specifications, and (4) most important, public access to high-quality 3D elevation data.

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

2014-05-01

Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

2014-12-01

Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ya. D. Muraviev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification

Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

2011-12-01

Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heggie, Travis W

2009-09-01

Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-01-01

Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 μm) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 μm fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 μm fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash (∼ 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM 4 concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been closely linked

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-07-01

Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 {mu}m) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 {mu}m fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 {mu}m fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash ({approx} 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM{sub 4} concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been

The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giulio Zuccaro

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

Second DOE natural phenomena hazards mitigation conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

This conference has been organized into ten presentation sessions which include an overview of the DOE Natural Phenomena Guidelines, Seismic Analysis, Seismic Design, Modifying Existing Facilities, DOE Orders, Codes, and Standards (2 sessions), Seismic Hazard (2 sessions), and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (2 sessions). Two poster sessions were also included in the program to provide a different forum for communication of ideas. Over the past fourteen years, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Nuclear Systems Safety Program, has been working with the US Department of Energy, Office of Safety Appraisals and their predecessors in the area of natural phenomena hazards. During this time we have developed seismic, extreme wind/tornado, and flood hazard models for DOE sites in the United States. Guidelines for designing and evaluating DOE facilities for natural phenomena have been developed and are in interim use throughout the DOE community. A series of state-of-the practice manuals have also been developed to aid the designers. All of this material is listed in the Natural Phenomena Hazards Bibliography included in these proceedings. This conference provides a mechanism to disseminate current information on natural phenomena hazards and their mitigation. It provides an opportunity to bring together members of the DOE community to discuss current projects, to share information, and to hear practicing members of the structural engineering community discuss their experiences from past natural phenomena, future trends, and any changes to building codes. Each paper or poster presented is included in these proceedings. We have also included material related to the luncheon and dinner talks

United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

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Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

2017-07-25

In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

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Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

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Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Development Of Training Curriculum In Improving Community-Based Geological Hazard Mitigation Competency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rusman Rusman

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide training curriculum model in improving community-based geological hazard mitigation competency. The goal was achieved through research and development method, is divided into three main stages. First, applied need analysis as the introduction. Second, developed the curriculum model. Third, tested the curriculum model in order to explore the curriculum effectiveness in improving the competency for mitigation measurement related to geological hazard. This study showed that the training curriculum model, which is developed based on the result of need analysis, is effective to improve the participant’s competency. The result of pre-post test shows that the improvement of the participant’s cognitive aspect.  The significant improvement is identified in the training competency showing the effectiveness of Test II in improving the participant’s practical competency to carry out the training. Some factors that support the training curriculum model development related to community-based Landslides management are: (a the public servant’s competency for geological hazard mitigation; (b the motivation of the community who becomes the volunteer; and (c support from the decision maker. On the other hand, the inhibitors are the lack of competency for training related to geological field, the lack of educational background and knowledge of geology and landslides, and the lack of time.

Contrasting styles of post-caldera volcanism along the Main Ethiopian Rift: Implications for contemporary volcanic hazards

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Fontijn, Karen; McNamara, Keri; Zafu Tadesse, Amdemichael; Pyle, David M.; Dessalegn, Firawalin; Hutchison, William; Mather, Tamsin A.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

2018-05-01

The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER, 7-9°N) is the type example of a magma-assisted continental rift. The rift axis is populated with regularly spaced silicic caldera complexes and central stratovolcanoes, interspersed with large fields of small mafic scoria cones. The recent (latest Pleistocene to Holocene) history of volcanism in the MER is poorly known, and no eruptions have occurred in the living memory of the local population. Assessment of contemporary volcanic hazards and associated risk is primarily based on the study of the most recent eruptive products, typically those emplaced within the last 10-20 ky. We integrate new and published field observations and geochemical data on tephra deposits from the main Late Quaternary volcanic centres in the central MER to assess contemporary volcanic hazards. Most central volcanoes in the MER host large mid-Pleistocene calderas, with typical diameters of 5-15 km, and associated ignimbrites of trachyte and peralkaline rhyolite composition. In contrast, post-caldera activity at most centres comprises eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas as obsidian flows, domes and pumice cones. The frequency and magnitude of events varies between individual volcanoes. Some volcanoes have predominantly erupted obsidian lava flows in their most recent post-caldera stage (Fentale), whereas other have had up to 3 moderate-scale (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions per millennium (Aluto). At some volcanoes we find evidence for multiple large explosive eruptions (Corbetti, Bora-Baricha, Boset-Bericha) which have deposited several centimetres to metres of pumice and ash in currently densely populated regions. This new overview has important implications when assessing the present-day volcanic hazard in this rapidly developing region. Supplementary Table 2 Main Ethiopian Rift outcrop localities with brief description of geology. All coordinates in Latitude - Longitude, WGS84 datum. Sample names (as listed in Supplementary Table 3a) follow outcrop name

National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

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,; ,

2007-01-01

International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) International Airways Volcano Watch. This plan defines agency responsibilities, provides a comprehensive description of an interagency standard for volcanic ash products and their formats, describes the agency backup procedures for operational products, and outlines the actions to be taken by each agency following an occurrence of a volcanic eruption that subsequently affects and impacts aviation services. Since our most recent International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, volcanic ash-related product and service activities have grown considerably along with partnerships and alliances throughout the aviation community. In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environment Prediction began running the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model in place of the Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion (VAFTAD) model, upgrading support to the volcanic ash advisory community. Today, improvements to the HYSPLIT model are ongoing based on recommendations by the OFCM-sponsored Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models and the Joint Action Group for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (Research and Development Plan). Two international workshops on volcanic ash have already taken place, noticeable improvements and innovations in education, training, and outreach have been made, and federal and public education and training programs on volcanic ash-related products, services, and procedures iv continue to evolve. For example, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and other academic institutions, volcanic ash hazard and mitigation training has been incorporated into aviation meteorology courses. As an essential next step, our volcanic ash-related efforts in the near term will be centered on the development of an interagency implementation plan to

Natural Hazards, Second Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Rouhban, Badaoui

Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

On a Possible Unified Scaling Law for Volcanic Eruption Durations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cannavò, Flavio; Nunnari, Giuseppe

2016-03-01

Volcanoes constitute dissipative systems with many degrees of freedom. Their eruptions are the result of complex processes that involve interacting chemical-physical systems. At present, due to the complexity of involved phenomena and to the lack of precise measurements, both analytical and numerical models are unable to simultaneously include the main processes involved in eruptions thus making forecasts of volcanic dynamics rather unreliable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of some eruption parameters, such as the duration, could be a key factor in natural hazard estimation and mitigation. Analyzing a large database with most of all the known volcanic eruptions, we have determined that the duration of eruptions seems to be described by a universal distribution which characterizes eruption duration dynamics. In particular, this paper presents a plausible global power-law distribution of durations of volcanic eruptions that holds worldwide for different volcanic environments. We also introduce a new, simple and realistic pipe model that can follow the same found empirical distribution. Since the proposed model belongs to the family of the self-organized systems it may support the hypothesis that simple mechanisms can lead naturally to the emergent complexity in volcanic behaviour.

Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

2009-01-01

Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

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Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

2017-12-01

Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

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Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

2015-12-01

Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

2015-04-01

Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

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Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2013-01-01

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists

New Science Applications Within the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.; Forson, C. K.; Horrillo, J. J.; Nicolsky, D.

2017-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a collaborative State and Federal program which supports consistent and cost effective tsunami preparedness and mitigation activities at a community level. The NTHMP is developing a new five-year Strategic Plan based on the 2017 Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act as well as recommendations the 2017 NTHMP External Review Panel. Many NTHMP activities are based on the best available scientific methods through the NTHMP Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS). The primary activities for the MMS member States are to characterize significant tsunami sources, numerically model those sources, and create tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning. This work remains a focus for many unmapped coastlines. With the lessons learned from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis, where both immediate risks and long-term recovery issues where recognized, the NTHMP MMS is expanding efforts into other areas that address community resilience. Tsunami evacuation modeling based on both pedestrian and vehicular modes of transportation are being developed by NTHMP States. Products include tools for the public to create personal evacuation maps. New tsunami response planning tools are being developed for both maritime and coastal communities. Maritime planning includes tsunami current-hazard maps for in-harbor and offshore response activities. Multi-tiered tsunami evacuation plans are being developed in some states to address local- versus distant-source tsunamis, as well as real-time evacuation plans, or "playbooks," for distant-source tsunamis forecasted to be less than the worst-case flood event. Products to assist community mitigation and recovery are being developed at a State level. Harbor Improvement Reports, which evaluate the impacts of currents, sediment, and debris on harbor infrastructure, include direct mitigation activities for Local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Building code updates in the

Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity

Science.gov (United States)

Lirer, Lucio; Petrosino, Paola; Alberico, Ines; Postiglione, Immacolata

2001-02-01

Distributions of pyroclastic deposits from the main explosive events at Somma-Vesuvio during the 8,000-year B.P.-A.D. 1906 time-span have been analysed to provide maps of volcanic hazard for long-term eruption forecasting. In order to define hazard ratings, the spatial distributions and loads (kg/m2) exerted by the fall deposits on the roofs of buildings have been considered. A load higher than 300 kg/m2 is defined as destructive. The relationship load/frequency (the latter defined as the number of times that an area has been impacted by the deposition of fall deposits) is considered to be a suitable parameter for differentiating among areas according to hazard rating. Using past fall deposit distributions as the basis for future eruptive scenarios, the total area that could be affected by the products of a future Vesuvio explosive eruption is 1,500 km2. The perivolcanic area (274 km2) has the greatest hazard rating because it could be buried by pyroclastic flow deposits thicker than 0.5 m and up to several tens of metres in thickness. Currently, the perivolcanic area also has the highest risk because of the high exposed value, mainly arising from the high population density.

The Global Framework for Providing Information about Volcanic-Ash Hazards to International Air Navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Romero, R. W.; Guffanti, M.

2009-12-01

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) created the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) in 1987 to establish a requirement for international dissemination of information about airborne ash hazards to safe air navigation. The IAVW is a set of operational protocols and guidelines that member countries agree to follow in order to implement a global, multi-faceted program to support the strategy of ash-cloud avoidance. Under the IAVW, the elements of eruption reporting, ash-cloud detecting, and forecasting expected cloud dispersion are coordinated to culminate in warnings sent to air traffic controllers, dispatchers, and pilots about the whereabouts of ash clouds. Nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) established under the IAVW have the responsibility for detecting the presence of ash in the atmosphere, primarily by looking at imagery from civilian meteorological satellites, and providing advisories about the location and movement of ash clouds to aviation meteorological offices and other aviation users. Volcano Observatories also are a vital part of the IAVW, as evidenced by the recent introduction of a universal message format for reporting the status of volcanic activity, including precursory unrest, to aviation users. Since 2003, the IAVW has been overseen by a standing group of scientific, technical, and regulatory experts that assists ICAO in the development of standards and other regulatory material related to volcanic ash. Some specific problems related to the implementation of the IAVW include: the lack of implementation of SIGMET (warning to aircraft in flight) provisions and delayed notifications of volcanic eruptions. Expected future challenges and developments involve the improvement in early notifications of volcanic eruptions, the consolidation of the issuance of SIGMETs, and the possibility of determining a “safe” concentration of volcanic ash.

Non-Volcanic release of CO2 in Italy: quantification, conceptual models and gas hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Chiodini, G.; Cardellini, C.; Caliro, S.; Avino, R.

2011-12-01

Central and South Italy are characterized by the presence of many reservoirs naturally recharged by CO2 of deep provenance. In the western sector, the reservoirs feed hundreds of gas emissions at the surface. Many studies in the last years were devoted to (i) elaborating a map of CO2 Earth degassing of the region; (ii) to asses the gas hazard; (iii) to develop methods suitable for the measurement of the gas fluxes from different types of emissions; (iv) to elaborate the conceptual model of Earth degassing and its relation with the seismic activity of the region and (v) to develop physical numerical models of CO2 air dispersion. The main results obtained are: 1) A general, regional map of CO2 Earth degassing in Central Italy has been elaborated. The total flux of CO2 in the area has been estimated in ~ 10 Mt/a which are released to the atmosphere trough numerous dangerous gas emissions or by degassing spring waters (~ 10 % of the CO2 globally estimated to be released by the Earth trough volcanic activity). 2) An on line, open access, georeferenced database of the main CO2 emissions (~ 250) was settled up (http://googas.ov.ingv.it). CO2 flux > 100 t/d characterise 14% of the degassing sites while CO2 fluxes from 100 t/d to 10 t/d have been estimated for about 35% of the gas emissions. 3) The sites of the gas emissions are not suitable for life: the gas causes many accidents to animals and people. In order to mitigate the gas hazard a specific model of CO2 air dispersion has been developed and applied to the main degassing sites. A relevant application regarded Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Apennines, which is the largest natural emission of low temperature CO2 rich gases, from non-volcanic environment, ever measured in the Earth (˜2000 t/d). Under low wind conditions, the gas flows along a narrow natural channel producing a persistent gas river which has killed over a period of time many people and animals. The application of the physical numerical model allowed us to

Characteristics of Large Low-frequency Debris Flow Hazards and Mitigation Strategies

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WANG Shige

2005-01-01

A low-frequency debris flow took place in the north coastal range of Venezuela on Dec. 16, 1999,and scientists all over the world paid attention to this catastrophe. Four characteristics of low-frequency debris hazard are discussed: long return period and extreme catastrophe, special rare triggering factors,difficulty in distinguishing and a series of small hazards subsequent to the catastrophe. Different measures, such as preventing, forecast - warning,engineering, can be used for mitigating and controlling the catastrophe. In engineering practice, it is a key that large silt-trap dams are used to control rare large debris flow. A kind of low dam with cheap cost can be used to replace high dam in developing countries. A planning for controlling debris flow hazard in Cerro Grande stream of Venezuela is presented at the end of this paper.

Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2008-01-01

Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

2016-12-01

Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

“Points requiring elucidation” about Hawaiian volcanism: Chapter 24

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Michael P.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

2015-01-01

Hawaiian volcanoes, which are easily accessed and observed at close range, are among the most studied on the planet and have spurred great advances in the geosciences, from understanding deep Earth processes to forecasting volcanic eruptions. More than a century of continuous observation and study of Hawai‘i's volcanoes has also sharpened focus on those questions that remain unanswered. Although there is good evidence that volcanism in Hawai‘i is the result of a high-temperature upwelling plume from the mantle, the source composition and dynamics of the plume are controversial. Eruptions at the surface build the volcanoes of Hawai‘i, but important topics, including how the volcanoes grow and collapse and how magma is stored and transported, continue to be subjects of intense research. Forecasting volcanic activity is based mostly on pattern recognition, but determining and predicting the nature of eruptions, especially in serving the critical needs of hazards mitigation, require more realistic models and a greater understanding of what drives eruptive activity. These needs may be addressed by better integration among disciplines as well as by developing dynamic physics- and chemistry-based models that more thoroughly relate the physiochemical behavior of Hawaiian volcanism, from the deep Earth to the surface, to geological, geochemical, and geophysical data.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

Science.gov (United States)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the

Introducing Geoscience Students to Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Hazards: The example of Tephra2 on VHub.org

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leah M. Courtland

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The Tephra2 numerical model for tephra fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions is specifically designed to enable students to probe ideas in model literacy, including code validation and verification, the role of simplifying assumptions, and the concepts of uncertainty and forecasting. This numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials. The VHub.org resource provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2. We present a strategy for using this model to introduce university students to key concepts in the use and evaluation of Tephra2 for probabilistic forecasting of volcanic hazards. Through this critical examination students are encouraged to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models. Although the model and applications are intended for use in both introductory and advanced geoscience courses, they could easily be adapted to work in other disciplines, such as astronomy, physics, computational methods, data analysis, or computer science.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

2000-01-01

The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

Looking before we leap: an ongoing, quantative investigation of asteroid and comet impact hazard mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2010-01-01

There are many outstanding questions about the correct response to an asteroid or comet impact threat on Earth. Nuclear munitions are currently thought to be the most efficient method of delivering an impact-preventing impulse to a potentially hazardous object (PHO). However, there are major uncertainties about the response of PHOs to a nuclear burst, and the most appropriate ways to use nuclear munitions for hazard mitigation.

77 FR 24505 - Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-24

...] Hazard Mitigation Assistance for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings AGENCY... for Wind Retrofit Projects for Existing Residential Buildings. DATES: Comments must be received by... must include the agency name and docket ID. Regardless of the method used for submitting comments or...

Advances in Remote Sensing Approaches for Hazard Mitigation and Natural Resource Protection in Pacific Latin America: A Workshop for Advanced Graduate Students, Post- Doctoral Researchers, and Junior Faculty

Science.gov (United States)

Gierke, J. S.; Rose, W. I.; Waite, G. P.; Palma, J. L.; Gross, E. L.

2008-12-01

Though much of the developing world has the potential to gain significantly from remote sensing techniques in terms of public health and safety, they often lack resources for advancing the development and practice of remote sensing. All countries share a mutual interest in furthering remote sensing capabilities for natural hazard mitigation and resource development. With National Science Foundation support from the Partnerships in International Research and Education program, we are developing a new educational system of applied research and engineering for advancing collaborative linkages among agencies and institutions in Pacific Latin American countries (to date: Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Ecuador) in the development of remote sensing tools for hazard mitigation and water resources management. The project aims to prepare students for careers in science and engineering through their efforts to solve suites of problems needing creative solutions: collaboration with foreign agencies; living abroad immersed in different cultures; and adapting their academic training to contend with potentially difficult field conditions and limited resources. The ultimate goal of integrating research with education is to encourage cross-disciplinary, creative, and critical thinking in problem solving and foster the ability to deal with uncertainty in analyzing problems and designing appropriate solutions. In addition to traditional approaches for graduate and undergraduate research, we have built new educational systems of applied research and engineering: (1) the Peace Corp/Master's International program in Natural Hazards which features a 2-year field assignment during service in the U.S. Peace Corps, (2) the Michigan Tech Enterprise program for undergraduates, which gives teams of students from different disciplines the opportunity to work for three years in a business-like setting to solve real-world problems, and (3) a unique university exchange

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

An establishment on the hazard mitigation system of large scale landslides for Zengwen reservoir watershed management in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Huang, Meng-Hsuan; Yu, Chia-Ching

2016-04-01

Extremely heavy rainfall with accumulated rainfall amount more than 2900mm within continuous 3 day event occurred at southern Taiwan has been recognized as a serious natural hazard caused by Morakot typhoon in august, 2009. Very destructive large scale landslides and debris flows were induced by this heavy rainfall event. According to the satellite image processing and monitoring project was conducted by Soil & Water Conservation Bureau after Morakot typhoon. More than 10904 sites of landslide with total sliding area of 18113 ha were significantly found by this project. Also, the field investigation on all landslide areas were executed by this research on the basis of disaster type, scale and location related to the topographic condition, colluvium soil characteristics, bedrock formation and geological structure after Morakot hazard. The mechanism, characteristics and behavior of this large scale landslide combined with debris flow disasters are analyzed and Investigated to rule out the interaction of factors concerned above and identify the disaster extent of rainfall induced landslide during the period of this study. In order to reduce the disaster risk of large scale landslide and debris flow, the adaption strategy of hazard mitigation system should be set up as soon as possible and taken into consideration of slope land conservation, landslide control countermeasure planning, disaster database establishment, environment impact analysis and disaster risk assessment respectively. As a result, this 3-year research has been focused on the field investigation by using GPS/GIS/RS integration, mechanism and behavior study regarding to the rainfall induced landslide occurrence, disaster database and hazard mitigation system establishment. In fact, this project has become an important issue which was seriously concerned by the government and people live in Taiwan. Hopefully, all results come from this research can be used as a guidance for the disaster prevention and

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2016-04-01

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

Automated detection and cataloging of global explosive volcanism using the International Monitoring System infrasound network

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, Robin S.; Green, David N.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Shearer, Peter M.; Fee, David; Mialle, Pierrick; Ceranna, Lars

2017-04-01

We experiment with a new method to search systematically through multiyear data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network to identify explosive volcanic eruption signals originating anywhere on Earth. Detecting, quantifying, and cataloging the global occurrence of explosive volcanism helps toward several goals in Earth sciences and has direct applications in volcanic hazard mitigation. We combine infrasound signal association across multiple stations with source location using a brute-force, grid-search, cross-bearings approach. The algorithm corrects for a background prior rate of coherent unwanted infrasound signals (clutter) in a global grid, without needing to screen array processing detection lists from individual stations prior to association. We develop the algorithm using case studies of explosive eruptions: 2008 Kasatochi, Alaska; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kurile Islands; and 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. We apply the method to global IMS infrasound data from 2005-2010 to construct a preliminary acoustic catalog that emphasizes sustained explosive volcanic activity (long-duration signals or sequences of impulsive transients lasting hours to days). This work represents a step toward the goal of integrating IMS infrasound data products into global volcanic eruption early warning and notification systems. Additionally, a better understanding of volcanic signal detection and location with the IMS helps improve operational event detection, discrimination, and association capabilities.

Planning ahead for asteroid and comet hazard mitigation, phase 1: parameter space exploration and scenario modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plesko, Catherine S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Clement, R Ryan [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Weaver, Robert P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bradley, Paul A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huebner, Walter F [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2009-01-01

The mitigation of impact hazards resulting from Earth-approaching asteroids and comets has received much attention in the popular press. However, many questions remain about the near-term and long-term, feasibility and appropriate application of all proposed methods. Recent and ongoing ground- and space-based observations of small solar-system body composition and dynamics have revolutionized our understanding of these bodies (e.g., Ryan (2000), Fujiwara et al. (2006), and Jedicke et al. (2006)). Ongoing increases in computing power and algorithm sophistication make it possible to calculate the response of these inhomogeneous objects to proposed mitigation techniques. Here we present the first phase of a comprehensive hazard mitigation planning effort undertaken by Southwest Research Institute and Los Alamos National Laboratory. We begin by reviewing the parameter space of the object's physical and chemical composition and trajectory. We then use the radiation hydrocode RAGE (Gittings et al. 2008), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport (see Clement et al., this conference), and N-body dynamics codes to explore the effects these variations in object properties have on the coupling of energy into the object from a variety of mitigation techniques, including deflection and disruption by nuclear and conventional munitions, and a kinetic impactor.

Geoethical issues in long-term assessment of geohazards and related mitigation policies

Science.gov (United States)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto

2015-04-01

Long-term assessment of large-impact and relatively (or very) infrequent geohazards like earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is nowadays a common practice for geoscientists and many groups have been and are involved in producing global and regional hazard maps in response of an increasing demand of the society. Though the societal needs are the basic motivations for such studies, often this aspect is not pondered enough and a lack of communication between geoscientists and the society might be a serious limit to the effective exploitation of the hazard assessment products and to the development of adequate mitigation policies. This paper is an analysis of the role of geoscientists in the process of the production of long-term assessments of dangerous natural phenomena (such as mapping of seismic, tsunami and volcanic hazards), with special emphasis given to the role of communicators and disseminators (with respect to the general public, to authorities, to restricted specialized audiences…), but also of providers of active support to the planners who should be given key elements for making decision. Geoethics imposes geoscientists to take clear and full responsibilities on the products resulting from their assessments, but also to be aware that these products are valuable insofar they are scientifically sound, known, understandable, and utilizable by a wide universe of users.

The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

2015-12-01

Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

CERN Document Server

Bevilacqua, Andrea

2016-01-01

This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

2008-09-01

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

2011-12-01

Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

Volcanic ash and aviation–The challenges of real-time, global communication of a natural hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Lechner, Peter; Tupper, Andrew C.; Guffanti, Marianne C.; Loughlin, Sue; Casadevall, Thomas

2017-01-01

More than 30 years after the first major aircraft encounters with volcanic ash over Indonesia in 1982, it remains challenging to inform aircraft in flight of the exact location of potentially dangerous ash clouds on their flight path, particularly shortly after the eruption has occurred. The difficulties include reliably forecasting and detecting the onset of significant explosive eruptions on a global basis, observing the dispersal of eruption clouds in real time, capturing their complex structure and constituents in atmospheric transport models, describing these observations and modelling results in a manner suitable for aviation users, delivering timely warning messages to the cockpit, flight planners and air traffic management systems, and the need for scientific development in order to undertake operational enhancements. The framework under which these issues are managed is the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ICAO outlines in its standards and recommended practices (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2014) the basic volcanic monitoring and communication that is necessary at volcano observatories in Member States (countries). However, not all volcanoes are monitored and not all countries with volcanoes have mandated volcano observatories or equivalents. To add to the efforts of volcano observatories, a system of Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Traffic Management Area Control Centres, and nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are responsible for observing, analysing, forecasting and communicating the aviation hazard (airborne ash), using agreed techniques and messages in defined formats. Continuous improvement of the IAVW framework is overseen by expert groups representing the operators of the system, the user community, and the science community. The IAVW represents a unique marriage of two scientific disciplines - volcanology and meteorology - with the

Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2010-01-01

The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

2016-01-01

A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

2008-10-01

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

Experimental constraints on forecasting the location of volcanic eruptions from pre-eruptive surface deformation

Science.gov (United States)

Guldstrand, Frank; Galland, Olivier; Hallot, Erwan; Burchardt, Steffi

2018-02-01

Volcanic eruptions pose a threat to lives and property when volcano flanks and surroundings are densely populated. The local impact of an eruption depends firstly on its location, whether it occurs near a volcano summit, or down on the flanks. Then forecasting, with a defined accuracy, the location of a potential, imminent eruption would significantly improve the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Currently, the conventional volcano monitoring methods based on the analysis of surface deformation assesses whether a volcano may erupt but are not implemented to locate imminent eruptions in real time. Here we show how surface deformation induced by ascending eruptive feeders can be used to forecast the eruption location through a simple geometrical analysis. Our analysis builds on the results of 33 scaled laboratory experiments simulating magma intrusions in a brittle crust, during which the intrusion-induced surface deformation was systematically monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. In all the experiments, surface deformation preceding the eruptions resulted in systematic uplift, regardless of the intrusion shape. The analysis of the surface deformation patterns leads to the definition of a vector between the centre of the uplifted zone and the point of maximum uplift, which systematically acted as a precursor to the eruption’s location. The temporal evolution of this vector indicated the direction in which the subsequent eruption would occur and ultimately the location itself, irrespective of the feeder shapes. Our findings represent a new approach on how surface deformation on active volcanoes could be analysed and used prior to an eruption with a real potential to improve hazard mitigation.

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Wilkinson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Sathnur, Ashwini

2017-04-01

Validation of the Existing products of the Remote Sensing instruments Review Comment Number 1 Ground - based instruments and space - based instruments are available for remote sensing of the Volcanic eruptions. Review Comment Number 2 The sunlight spectrum appears over the volcanic geographic area. This sunlight is reflected with the image of the volcano geographic area, to the satellite. The satellite captures this emitted spectrum of the image and further calculates the occurrences of the volcanic eruption. Review Comment Number 3 This computation system derives the presence and detection of sulphur dioxide and Volcanic Ash in the emitted spectrum. The temperature of the volcanic region is also measured. If these inputs derive the possibility of occurrence of an eruption, then the data is manually captured by the system for further usage and hazard mitigation. Review Comment Number 4 The instrument is particularly important in capturing the volcanogenic signal. This capturing operation should be carried out during the appropriate time of the day. This is carried out ideally at the time of the day when the reflected image spectra is best available. Capturing the data is not advisable to be performed at the night time, as the sunlight spectra is at its minimum. This would lead to erroneous data interpretation, as there is no sunlight for reflection of the volcanic region. Thus leading to the least capture of the emitted light spectra. Review Comment Number 5 An ideal area coverage of the spectrometer is mandatory. This is basically for the purpose of capturing the right area of data, in order to precisely derive the occurrence of a volcanic eruption. The larger the spatial resolution, there would be a higher capture of the geographic region, and this would lead to a lesser precise data capture. This would lead to missing details in the data capture. Review Comment Number 6 Ideal qualities for the remote sensing instrument are mentioned below:- Minimum "false

ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION OF X-RAY HAZARD GENERATED FROM HIGH INTENSITY LASER-TARGET INTERACTIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qiu, R.; Liu, J.C.; Prinz, A.A.; Rokni, S.H.; Woods, M.; Xia, Z.; /SLAC

2011-03-21

Interaction of a high intensity laser with matter may generate an ionizing radiation hazard. Very limited studies have been made, however, on the laser-induced radiation protection issue. This work reviews available literature on the physics and characteristics of laser-induced X-ray hazards. Important aspects include the laser-to-electron energy conversion efficiency, electron angular distribution, electron energy spectrum and effective temperature, and bremsstrahlung production of X-rays in the target. The possible X-ray dose rates for several femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser systems used at SLAC, including the short pulse laser system for the Matter in Extreme Conditions Instrument (peak power 4 TW and peak intensity 2.4 x 10{sup 18} W/cm{sup 2}) were analysed. A graded approach to mitigate the laser-induced X-ray hazard with a combination of engineered and administrative controls is also proposed.

Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

2014-05-01

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

Fault propagation folds induced by gravitational failure and slumping of the Central Costa Rica volcanic range: Implications for large terrestrial and Martian volcanic edifices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgia, A.; Burr, J.; Montero, W.; Morales, L.D.; Alvarado, G.E.

1990-01-01

Long sublinear ridges and related scarps located at the base of large volcanic structures are frequently interpreted as normal faults associated with extensional regional stress. In contrast, the ridges bordering the Central Costa Rica volcanic range (CCRVR) are the topographic expression of hanging wall asymmetric angular anticlines overlying low-angle thrust faults at the base of the range. These faults formed by gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of the range due to the weight of the volcanic edifices and were perhaps triggered by the intrusion of magma over the past 20,000 years. These anticlines are hypothesized to occur along the base of the volcano, where the thrust faults ramp up toward the sea bottom. Ridges and scarps between 2,000 and 5,000 m below sea level are interpreted as the topographic expression of these folds. The authors further suggest that the scarps of the CCRVR and valid scaled terrestrial analogs of the perimeter scarp of the Martian volcano Olympus Mons. They suggest that the crust below Olympus Mons has failed under the load of the volcano, triggering the radial slumping of the flanks of the volcano on basal thrusts. The thrusting would have, in turn, formed the anticlinal ridges and scarps that surround the edifice. The thrust faults may extend all the way to the base of the Martian crust (about 40 km), and they may have been active until almost the end of the volcanic activity. They suggest that gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of volcanoes is a process common to most large volcanic edifices. In the CCRVR this slumping of the flanks is a slow intermittent process, but it could evolve to rapid massive avalanching leading to catastrophic eruptions. Thus monitoring of uplift and displacement of the folds related to the slump tectonics could become an additional effective method for mitigating volcanic hazards

Time-Dependent Risk Estimation and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation Actions

Science.gov (United States)

van Stiphout, T.; Wiemer, S.; Marzocchi, W.

2009-04-01

Earthquakes strongly cluster in space and time. Consequently, the most dangerous time is right after a moderate earthquake has happened, because their is a ‘high' (i.e., 2-5 percent) probability that this event will be followed by a subsequent aftershock which happens to be as large or larger than the initiating event. The seismic hazard during this time-period exceeds the background probability significantly and by several orders of magnitude. Scientists have developed increasingly accurate forecast models that model this time-dependent hazard, and such models are currently being validated in prospective testing. However, this probabilistic information in the hazard space is difficult to digest for decision makers, the media and general public. Here, we introduce a possible bridge between seismology and decision makers (authorities, civil defense) by proposing a more objective way to estimate time-dependent risk assessment. Short Term Earthquake Risk assessment (STEER) combines aftershock hazard and loss assessments. We use site-specific information on site effects and building class distribution and combine this with existing loss models to compute site specific time-dependent risk curves (probability of exceedance for fatalities, injuries, damages etc). We show the effect of uncertainties in the different components using Monte Carlo Simulations of the input parameters. This time-dependent risk curves can act as a decision support. We extend the STEER approach by introducing a Cost-Benefit approach for certain mitigation actions after a medium-sized earthquake. Such Cost-Benefit approaches have been recently developed for volcanic risk assessment to rationalize precautionary evacuations in densely inhabitated areas threatened by volcanoes. Here we extend the concept to time-dependent probabilistic seismic risk assessment. For the Cost-Benefit analysis of mitigation actions we calculate the ratio between the cost for the mitigation actions and the cost of the

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Z.

2008-12-01

The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

New Approaches to Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Demonstrated in Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Priest, G. R.; Rizzo, A.; Madin, I.; Lyles Smith, R.; Stimely, L.

2012-12-01

Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and Oregon Emergency Management collaborated over the last four years to increase tsunami preparedness for residents and visitors to the Oregon coast. Utilizing support from the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP), new approaches to outreach and tsunami hazard assessment were developed and then applied. Hazard assessment was approached by first doing two pilot studies aimed at calibrating theoretical models to direct observations of tsunami inundation gleaned from the historical and prehistoric (paleoseismic/paleotsunami) data. The results of these studies were then submitted to peer-reviewed journals and translated into 1:10,000-12,000-scale inundation maps. The inundation maps utilize a powerful new tsunami model, SELFE, developed by Joseph Zhang at the Oregon Health & Science University. SELFE uses unstructured computational grids and parallel processing technique to achieve fast accurate simulation of tsunami interactions with fine-scale coastal morphology. The inundation maps were simplified into tsunami evacuation zones accessed as map brochures and an interactive mapping portal at http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/. Unique in the world are new evacuation maps that show separate evacuation zones for distant versus locally generated tsunamis. The brochure maps explain that evacuation time is four hours or more for distant tsunamis but 15-20 minutes for local tsunamis that are invariably accompanied by strong ground shaking. Since distant tsunamis occur much more frequently than local tsunamis, the two-zone maps avoid needless over evacuation (and expense) caused by one-zone maps. Inundation mapping for the entire Oregon coast will be complete by ~2014. Educational outreach was accomplished first by doing a pilot study to measure effectiveness of various approaches using before and after polling and then applying the most effective methods. In descending order, the most effective

Violent Explosive Eruptions in the Ararat Valley, Armenia and Associated Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Charles; Gevorgyan, Hripsime; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Jrbashyan, Ruben; Ghukasyan, Yura

2016-04-01

volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley based on numerical simulations. Our work is important as Ararat Valley host the capital city of Yerevan (population ˜ 1.4 million) and also the currently operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant at Metsamor. References Keskin,2003. GRL 30, 1-4; Neill et al., 2015 Chemical Geology, 403, p. 24-41; Skolbeltsyn et al. 2014. Tectonics 33, 207-221.

Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

2018-05-09

Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

Assessing the costs of hazard mitigation through landscape interventions in the urban structure

Science.gov (United States)

Bostenaru-Dan, Maria; Aldea Mendes, Diana; Panagopoulos, Thomas

2014-05-01

In this paper we look at an issue rarely approached, the economic efficiency of natural hazard risk mitigation. The urban scale at which a natural hazard can impact leads to the importance of urban planning strategy in risk management. However, usually natural, engineering, and social sciences deal with it, and the role of architecture and urban planning is neglected. Climate change can lead to risks related to increased floods, desertification, sea level rise among others. Reducing the sealed surfaces in cities through green spaces in the crowded centres can mitigate them, and can be foreseen in restructuration plans in presence or absence of disasters. For this purpose we reviewed the role of green spaces and community centres such as churches in games, which can build the core for restructuration efforts, as also field and archive studies show. We look at the way ICT can contribute to organize the information from the building survey to economic computations in direct modeling or through games. The roles of game theory, agent based modeling and networks and urban public policies in designing decision systems for risk management are discussed. Games rules are at the same time supported by our field and archive studies, as well as research by design. Also we take into consideration at a rare element, which is the role of landscape planning, through the inclusion of green elements in reconstruction after the natural and man-made disasters, or in restructuration efforts to mitigate climate change. Apart of existing old city tissue also landscape can be endangered by speculation and therefore it is vital to highlight its high economic value, also in this particular case. As ICOMOS highlights for the 2014 congress, heritage and landscape are two sides of the same coin. Landscape can become or be connected to a community centre, the first being necessary for building a settlement, the second raising its value, or can build connections between landmarks in urban routes

Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift System

Science.gov (United States)

Balagizi, Charles M.; Kies, Antoine; Kasereka, Marcellin M.; Tedesco, Dario; Yalire, Mathieu M.; McCausland, Wendy A.

2018-01-01

recently published information about Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes and Lake Kivu. We also present maps of mazuku and fractures in Goma, describe the volcanic eruption history with hazard assessment and mitigation implications, and consider social realities useful for an integrated risk management strategy.

Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

Science.gov (United States)

Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

2016-04-01

The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

Variational data assimilation of satellite observations to estimate volcanic ash emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, S.

2017-01-01

Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the

Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

Science.gov (United States)

Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

2014-05-01

Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volcano will be presented. Simulations are made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a high resolution digital elevation map of Montserrat. Simulations with an idealised topography have also been examined, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the Tropics. The model was initialised with soundings from representative days of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season. The heated volcanic dome changes the orographic flow response significantly, depending upon the atmospheric conditions and the magnitude of the dome surface temperature anomaly. The flow regime and qualitative characteristic features, such orographic clouds and rainfall patterns, can all change significantly. For example, the orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased dome temperatures. The implications of these changes on the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards, such as lahars, will be discussed.

The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

2017-07-01

Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

Experimental Constraints on Forecasting the Location of Volcanic Eruptions from Pre-eruptive Surface Deformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Guldstrand

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions pose a threat to lives and property when volcano flanks and surroundings are densely populated. The local impact of an eruption depends firstly on its location, whether it occurs near a volcano summit, or down on the flanks. Then forecasting, with a defined accuracy, the location of a potential, imminent eruption would significantly improve the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Currently, the conventional volcano monitoring methods based on the analysis of surface deformation assesses whether a volcano may erupt but are not implemented to locate imminent eruptions in real time. Here we show how surface deformation induced by ascending eruptive feeders can be used to forecast the eruption location through a simple geometrical analysis. Our analysis builds on the results of 33 scaled laboratory experiments simulating the emplacement of viscous magma intrusions in a brittle, cohesive Coulomb crust under lithostatic stress conditions. The intrusion-induced surface deformation was systematically monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. In all the experiments, surface deformation preceding the eruptions resulted in systematic uplift, regardless of the intrusion shape. The analysis of the surface deformation patterns leads to the definition of a vector between the center of the uplifted area and the point of maximum uplift, which systematically acted as a precursor to the eruption's location. The temporal evolution of this vector indicated the direction in which the subsequent eruption would occur and ultimately the location itself, irrespective of the feeder shapes. Our findings represent a new approach on how surface deformation on active volcanoes that are not in active rifts could be analysed and used prior to an eruption with a real potential to improve hazard mitigation.

Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Applegate, D.

2010-12-01

This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

A Possible Paradigm for the Mitigation of the Adverse Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Aswathanarayana, U.

2001-05-01

The proneness of a country or region to a given natural hazard depends upon its geographical location, physiography, geological and structural setting, landuse/landcover situation, and biophysical and socioeconomic environments (e.g. cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, earthquakes in Turkey, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa). While the natural hazards themselves cannot be prevented, it is possible to mitigate their adverse effects, by a knowledge-based, environmentally-sustainable approach, involving the stakeholder communities: (i) by being prepared: on the basis of the understanding of the land conditions which are prone to a given hazard and the processes which could culminate in damage to life and property (e.g. planting of dense-rooted vegetation belts to protect against landslides in the earthquake-prone areas), (ii) by avoiding improper anthropogenic activities that may exacerbate a hazard (e.g. deforestation accentuating the floods and droughts), and (iii) by putting a hazard to a beneficial use, where possible (groundwater recharging of flood waters), etc. Mitigation strategies need to be custom-made for each country/region by integrating the biophysical and socioeconomic components. The proposed paradigm is illustrated in respect of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), which is based on the adoption of three approaches: (i) Typology approach, involving the interpretation of remotely sensed data, to predict (say) temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, (ii) "black box" approach, whereby the potential environmental consequences of an EWE are projected on the basis of previously known case histories, and (iii) Information Technology approach, to translate advanced technical information in the form of "virtual" do-it-yourself steps understandable to lay public.

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails & Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage raft empennage.

Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

2014-05-01

In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

2013-12-01

Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

2005-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

Mitigation of Flood Hazards Through Modification of Urban Channels and Floodplains

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Stephens, T.

2017-12-01

Small urban watersheds with high percent impervious cover and dense road and storm-drain networks are highly responsive to short-duration high-intensity rainfall events that lead to flash floods. The Baltimore metropolitan area has some of the flashiest urban watersheds in the conterminous U.S., high frequency of channel incision in affected areas, and a large number of watershed restoration projects designed to restore ecosystem services through reconnection of the channel with the floodplain. A question of key importance in these and other urban watersheds is to what extent we can mitigate flood hazards and urban stream syndrome through restoration activities that modify the channel and valley floor. Local and state governments have invested resources in repairing damage caused by extreme events like the July 30, 2016 Ellicott City flood in the Tiber River watershed, as well as more frequent high flows in other local urban streams. Recent reports have investigated how much flood mitigation may be achieved through modification of the channel and floodplain to enhance short-term storage of flood waters on the valley floor or in other subsurface structures, as compared with increasing stormwater management in the headwaters. Ongoing research conducted as part of the UWIN (Urban Water Innovation Network) program utilizes high-resolution topographic point clouds derived by processing of photographs from hand-held cameras or video frames from drone overflights. These are used both to track geomorphic change and to assess flood response with 2d hydraulic modeling tools under alternative mitigation scenarios. Assessment metrics include variations in inundation extent, water depth, hydrograph attenuation, and temporal and spatial characteristics of the 2d depth-averaged velocity field. Examples from diverse urban watersheds are presented to illustrate the range of anticipated outcomes and potential constraints on the effectiveness of downstream vs. headwater mitigation

Preface of special issue on ;tectonics, volcanism and geo-energy in East Asia;

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Sheng-Rong; Chen, Cheng-Hong; Ryu, Byong-Jae; Lin, Saulwood

2017-11-01

The East Asia, from north to south, including Russia, China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia etc., is one of the most active tectonic and natural hazardous regions in the world. The subduction and collision zones, such as the Pacific Plate subducting into the Japan Arc and the Philippine Sea, and the Philippine Sea Plate subducting into the Eurasia Plate, and the collision zones of the Philippine Sea Plate with the Asian continental margin in the Taiwan mountain belt, and the India Plate with the Eurasia Plate in Himalaya mountain belts, distribute widely in this region. It is also the most densely populated areas in the world. More than two billion people (one/third populations of the world) live in East Asia. Most of disastrous natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and debris flows induced by floods occur frequently and cause many building collapses and causalities in this area. Geoscientists, therefore, must seriously consider and endeavor for mitigations of the natural hazards and reduction of the properties lose and human death.

Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

2009-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

Success in transmitting hazard science

Science.gov (United States)

Price, J. G.; Garside, T.

2010-12-01

Money motivates mitigation. An example of success in communicating scientific information about hazards, coupled with information about available money, is the follow-up action by local governments to actually mitigate. The Nevada Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee helps local governments prepare competitive proposals for federal funds to reduce risks from natural hazards. Composed of volunteers with expertise in emergency management, building standards, and earthquake, flood, and wildfire hazards, the committee advises the Nevada Division of Emergency Management on (1) the content of the State’s hazard mitigation plan and (2) projects that have been proposed by local governments and state agencies for funding from various post- and pre-disaster hazard mitigation programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Local governments must have FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plans in place before they can receive this funding. The committee has been meeting quarterly with elected and appointed county officials, at their offices, to encourage them to update their mitigation plans and apply for this funding. We have settled on a format that includes the county’s giving the committee an overview of its infrastructure, hazards, and preparedness. The committee explains the process for applying for mitigation grants and presents the latest information that we have about earthquake hazards, including locations of nearby active faults, historical seismicity, geodetic strain, loss-estimation modeling, scenarios, and documents about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Much of the county-specific information is available on the web. The presentations have been well received, in part because the committee makes the effort to go to their communities, and in part because the committee is helping them attract federal funds for local mitigation of not only earthquake hazards but also floods (including canal breaches) and wildfires, the other major concerns in

Mitigation of Hydrogen Hazards in Severe Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-07-01

Consideration of severe accidents in nuclear power plants is an essential component of the defence in depth approach in nuclear safety. Severe accidents have very low probabilities of occurring, but may have significant consequences resulting from the degradation of nuclear fuel. The generation of hydrogen and the risk of hydrogen combustion, as well as other phenomena leading to overpressurization of the reactor containment in case of severe accidents, represent complex safety issues in relation to accident management. The combustion of hydrogen, produced primarily as a result of heated zirconium metal reacting with steam, can create short term overpressure or detonation forces that may exceed the strength of the containment structure. An understanding of these phenomena is crucial for planning and implementing effective accident management measures. Analysis of all the issues relating to hydrogen risk is an important step for any measure that is aimed at the prevention or mitigation of hydrogen combustion in reactor containments. The main objective of this publication is to contribute to the implementation of IAEA Safety Standards, in particular, two IAEA Safety Requirements: Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design and Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Operation. These Requirements publications discuss computational analysis of severe accidents and accident management programmes in nuclear power plants. Specifically with regard to the risk posed by hydrogen in nuclear power reactors, computational analysis of severe accidents considers hydrogen sources, hydrogen distribution, hydrogen combustion and control and mitigation measures for hydrogen, while accident management programmes are aimed at mitigating hydrogen hazards in reactor containments.

Torrential Flood Hazards Assessment, Management, And Mitigation, In Wadi Aday, Muscat Area, Sultanate Of Oman, A GIS and RS Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SalehI, A.S.; AI-Hatrushi, S.M.

2009-01-01

Flash flood hazard of Wadi Aday threaten human activities in an important urban area of Muscat City, the capital of Sultanate of Oman. To evaluate and mitigate these floods; Remote Sensing (IKONOS Images), Topographic and Cadastral maps, data of rainfall, floods and other data sources have been used under a GIS environment and manipulated. The study determined the areas under the flood risk, and clarified the risk class and degree for each of human activities object in the lower part of Wadi Aday. In order to mitigate the flood hazards, and to utilize the floods water in such extreme hot desert; the study suggested: establishing two dams and artificial channel added to some methods that reduce the erosion on canyon reach road

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

The future of volcanic ash-aircraft interactions from technical and policy perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Casadevall, T. J.; Guffanti, M.

2010-12-01

growth in the risks facing aviation operation owing to volcanic ash hazard (http://www2.icao.int/en/anb/met-aim/met/ivatf/Documents/Final.Alltext.pdf) Modifications of international procedures for air traffic management, a new assessment of equipment vulnerability, and efforts to detect and to more precisely forecast the distribution and concentration of volcanic ash are underway. These efforts will result in modification and updating of current practices for advising and warning pilots and airspace managers about volcanic ash, and also in better understandings of the threat volcanic ash presents to aviation operations. While technical and policy changes will help improve flight safety, there continues to be a role for earth scientists to work with the aviation community to improve monitoring of volcanoes, especially in remote regions, and in understanding of explosive volcanic processes. A paramount need continues for improved communications amongst all of the scientific and technical parties to address and successfully mitigate the risks of volcanic ash to aviation operations.

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

Field Guide for Testing Existing Photovoltaic Systems for Ground Faults and Installing Equipment to Mitigate Fire Hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brooks, William [Brooks Engineering, Vacaville, CA (United States); Basso, Thomas [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coddington, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-10-01

Ground faults and arc faults are the two most common reasons for fires in photovoltaic (PV) arrays and methods exist that can mitigate the hazards. This report provides field procedures for testing PV arrays for ground faults, and for implementing high resolution ground fault and arc fault detectors in existing and new PV system designs.

The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

2001-12-01

The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

Eruptive dynamics and hazards associated with obsidian bearing ignimbrites of the Geghama Volcanic Highland, Central Armenia: a textural insight

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Zoe; Manning, Christina J.

2017-04-01

The Geghama Volcanic highland in central Armenia is an ideal setting to study the young ( 750-25 ka [1]) volcanism that characterises the Lesser Caucasus region. The volcanism in the area is bimodal in composition: the eastern highlands are dominated by numerous monogenetic scoria cones, whilst the west shows more evolved volcanism centered on two obsidian bearing, polygenetic domes (Hatis and Gutanasar) [2]. Activity at Hatis and Gutanasar is thought to have spanned 550ka-200ka [3] and produced a range of products including obsidian flows, ignimbrites and basaltic scoria cones, consistent with long lived and complex magma storage systems. During a similar time period there is evidence for the presence of hominin groups in the surrounding region [3] and it is likely that at least some of the volcanic activity at Hatis and Gutanasar impacted on their distribution [4]. A better understanding of the eruptive behaviour of these volcanoes during this period could therefore shed light on the effect of volcanic activity on the dispersal of man through this period. Whilst large regional studies have striven to better understand the timing and source of volcanism in Armenia, there have been few detailed studies on single volcanoes. Obsidian is ubiquitous within the volcanic material of both Gutanasar and Hatis as lava flows, dome deposits and within ignimbrites. This study aims to better understand the eruptive history of Gutanasar, with specific focus upon the determination of the petrogenetic history of obsidian lenses observed within the ignimbrite deposits. Identification of these obsidians as the result of welding or in-situ melting will help constrain eruptive volumes and flow thickness, important for the reconstruction of palaeo-volcanic hazards. In order to interpret how this obsidian was deposited, macro textural analysis is combined with micro textural measurements of microlite crystals. Quantitative measurements of microlites in obsidian can provide significant

[Effects of volcanic eruptions on environment and health].

Science.gov (United States)

Zuskin, Eugenija; Mustajbegović, Jadranka; Doko Jelinić, Jagoda; Pucarin-Cvetković, Jasna; Milosević, Milan

2007-12-01

Volcanoes pose a threat to almost half a billion people; today there are approximately 500 active volcanoes on Earth, and every year there are 10 to 40 volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions produce hazardous effects for the environment, climate, and the health of the exposed persons, and are associated with the deterioration of social and economic conditions. Along with magma and steam (H2O), the following gases surface in the environment: carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), carbon sulphide (CS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen bromide (HBr) and various organic compounds, as well as heavy metals (mercury, lead, gold).Their unfavourable effects depend on the distance from a volcano, on magma viscosity, and on gas concentrations. The hazards closer to the volcano include pyroclastic flows, flows of mud, gases and steam, earthquakes, blasts of air, and tsunamis. Among the hazards in distant areas are the effects of toxic volcanic ashes and problems of the respiratory system, eyes and skin, as well as psychological effects, injuries, transport and communication problems, waste disposal and water supplies issues, collapse of buildings and power outage. Further effects are the deterioration of water quality, fewer periods of rain, crop damages, and the destruction of vegetation. During volcanic eruptions and their immediate aftermath, increased respiratory system morbidity has been observed as well as mortality among those affected by volcanic eruptions. Unfavourable health effects could partly be prevented by timely application of safety measures.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against

Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

Science.gov (United States)

A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

2017-09-01

The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Volcanic Infrasound - A technical topic communicated in an entertaining way

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlow, Isaac

2017-04-01

Volcanic Infrasound is a 9-minute film about using infrasound waves to detect and measure volcanic eruptions as they unfold. The film was made by an interdisciplinary team of filmmakers and scientists for a general audience. The movie explains the basic facts of using infrasound to detect volcanic activity, and it also shows volcano researchers as they install infrasound sensors in a natural reserve in the middle of the city. This is the first in a series of films that seek to address natural hazards of relevance to Singapore, a country shielded from violent hazards. This presentation reviews the science communication techniques and assumptions used to develop and produce this entertaining scientific documentary short. Trailer: https://vimeo.com/192206460

Variations in community exposure to lahar hazards from multiple volcanoes in Washington State (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Diefenbach, Angela K.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Understanding how communities are vulnerable to lahar hazards provides critical input for effective design and implementation of volcano hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies. Past vulnerability assessments have focused largely on hazards posed by a single volcano, even though communities and officials in many parts of the world must plan for and contend with hazards associated with multiple volcanoes. To better understand community vulnerability in regions with multiple volcanic threats, we characterize and compare variations in community exposure to lahar hazards associated with five active volcanoes in Washington State, USA—Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount Adams and Mount St. Helens—each having the potential to generate catastrophic lahars that could strike communities tens of kilometers downstream. We use geospatial datasets that represent various population indicators (e.g., land cover, residents, employees, tourists) along with mapped lahar-hazard boundaries at each volcano to determine the distributions of populations within communities that occupy lahar-prone areas. We estimate that Washington lahar-hazard zones collectively contain 191,555 residents, 108,719 employees, 433 public venues that attract visitors, and 354 dependent-care facilities that house individuals that will need assistance to evacuate. We find that population exposure varies considerably across the State both in type (e.g., residential, tourist, employee) and distribution of people (e.g., urban to rural). We develop composite lahar-exposure indices to identify communities most at-risk and communities throughout the State who share common issues of vulnerability to lahar-hazards. We find that although lahars are a regional hazard that will impact communities in different ways there are commonalities in community exposure across multiple volcanoes. Results will aid emergency managers, local officials, and the public in educating at-risk populations and developing

Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

2009-05-01

Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

Earth Hazards Consortium: a Unique Approach to Student-Centered Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, C. P.; Granados, H. D.; Durant, A.; Wolf, R. E.; Girard, G.; Javier, I. H.; Cisneros, M.; Rose, W.; Sánchez, S. S.; Stix, J.

2006-12-01

The Earth Hazards (EHaz) consortium consists of six research-based universities in the United States (Michigan Technological University, University at Buffalo), Canada (McGill University, Simon Fraser University) and México (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Universidad de Colima) funded by the U.S. Department of Education, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, and the Secretaría de Educación Pública of México, as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The objective of the consortium is to expose students to a wide variety of scientific and cultural perspectives in the mitigation of geological natural hazards in North America. This four year program is multi-faceted, including student exchanges, graduate level, web-based courses in volcanology, and intensive group field trips. In 2005 to 2006, a total of 27 students were mobilized among the three countries. In this first year, the videoconferencing course focused on caldera supervolcanoes with weekly discussion leaders from various fields of volcanology. At the end of the course the students participated in a field trip to Long Valley and Yellowstone calderas. Also during the first year of the program, México hosted an International Course on Volcanic Hazards Map Construction. The course was attended by graduate students from Mexico and the United States, included lectures from noted guest speakers, and involved a field trip to Popocatepetl volcano. A student survey demonstrated that during the videoconferencing the students benefited by the weekly interaction with well- known volcanologists at the top of their field. Students who participated in the field trip benefited from an outstanding opportunity to link the theoretical concepts covered during the course with the field aspects of supervolcano systems, as well as the opportunity to network amongst their peers. Feedback from students who went abroad indicates that the program provided support for internship opportunities

LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Gallo

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

procedure, each household was chosen randomly and entirely by chance with the same probability of being chosen at any stage during the sampling process. To facilitate our interpretation, all results were spatially analyzed using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Our results indicate that the community of Motozintla is higly exposed to floods, landslides and earthquakes and to a lesser extent to the impact of a volcanic eruption. The locality has a high level of structural vulnerability to the main identified hazards (floods and landslides). About 70% of the families has a daily income below 11 USD. Approximately 66% of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan. Another major observation is that the community organization for disaster prevention is practically nonexistent. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support decision makers in Mexico, and particularly from the sate of Chiapas, in the development of an integrated comprenhensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program in this region.

Recent Progress in Understanding Natural-Hazards-Generated TEC Perturbations: Measurements and Modeling Results

Science.gov (United States)

Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Langley, R. B.

2015-12-01

Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface.We will show examples for early detection of natural hazards generated ionospheric signatures using ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will also discuss recent results from the U.S. Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation Network (READI) exercises utilizing our algorithms. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage. It is also expected that ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of existing natural hazards warning systems.

Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

2013-04-01

In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

Trace Element Geochemistry of Basaltic Tephra in Maar Cores; Implications for Centre Correlation, Field Evolution, and Mantle Source Characteristics of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, J. L.; Leonard, G.; Timm, C.; Wilson, C. J. N.; Neil, H.; Millet, M. A.

2014-12-01

Establishing volcanic hazard and risk management strategies hinges on a detailed understanding of the type, timing and tephra dispersal of past eruptions. In order to unravel the pyroclastic eruption history of a volcanic field, genetic links between the deposits and eruption source centre need to be established. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; New Zealand) has been active for ca. 200 kyr and comprises ca. 53 individual centres covering an area of ca. 360km2. These centres show a range of sizes and eruptive styles from maar craters and tuff rings, to scoria cones and lava flows consistent with both phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions. Superimposition of the metropolitan area of Auckland (ca. 1.4 million inhabitants) on the volcanic field makes it critically important to assess the characteristics of the volcanic activity, on which to base assessment and management of the consequent hazards. Here we present a geochemical approach for correlating tephra deposits to their source centres. To acquire the most complete stratigraphic record of pyroclastic events, maar crater cores from different locations, covering various depths and thus ages across the field were selected. Magnetic susceptibility and x-ray density scanning of the cores was used to identify the basaltic tephra horizons, which were sampled and in-situ analysis of individual shards undertaken for major and trace elements using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS techniques, respectively. Our results show that tephra shard trace element ratios are comparable and complementary to the AVF whole rock database. The use of specific trace element ratios (e.g. Gd/Yb vs. Zr/Yb) allows us to fingerprint and cross correlate tephra horizons between cores and, when coupled with newly acquired 40Ar-39Ar age dating and eruption size estimates, correlate horizons to their source centres. This integrated style of study can provide valuable information to help volcanic hazard management and forecasting, and mitigation of related risks.

Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

2005-12-01

The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

Volcanic Risk Perception and Preparedness in Communities within the Mount Baker and Glacier Peak Lahar Hazard Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2014-12-01

A community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from natural hazards depends on both the physical characteristics of the hazard and the community's inherent resilience. Resilience is shaped by a number of factors including the residents' perception of and preparedness for a natural hazard as well as the level of institutional preparedness. This study examines perception of and preparedness for lahar hazards from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak in Washington's Skagit Valley. Through an online survey, this study isolates the influence of specific variables (e.g., knowledge, past experience, scientific background, trust in various information sources, occupation, self-efficacy, sense of community) on risk perception and explores reasons behind the frequent disconnect between perception and preparedness. We anticipate that individuals with more extensive education in the sciences, especially geology or earth science, foster greater trust in scientists and a more accurate knowledge, understanding, and perception of the volcanic hazards in their community. Additionally, little research exists examining the extent to which first responders and leaders in response-related institutions prepare on a personal level. Since these individuals work toward community preparedness professionally, we hypothesize that they will be more prepared at home than members of the general public. Finally, the Skagit Valley has a significant history of flooding. We expect that the need to respond to and recover from frequent flooding creates a community with an inherently higher level of preparedness for other hazards such as lahars. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of what controls risk perception and the interplay between perception and preparedness. At a broader level, this study provides local and state-level emergency managers information to evaluate and improve response capabilities and communication with the public and key institutions in order to

Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

Individual risk evaluation and interventions for mitigation in the transportation of hazardous goods: a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rada Elena Cristina

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The transport of hazardous substances is an economic activity essential for goods’ transference chain. However, the risk in transporting hazardous materials is related to the occur of accidents causing environmental damages and public health dangerous consequences. A quite recent Italian example is the Viareggio accident (2010, which involved a train with tank cars containing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG which caused more than thirty deaths. This paper describes the safety state in the Varese district (an area of northern Italy with a very high population density and industrial activities, with the aim at comparing the current situation (considering the risks due to the transportation of hazardous materials on the main motorways and main national roads with a potential scenario that introduces a few mitigating interventions, such as a partial conversion from road haulage to rail transport. This comparison can be accomplished by developing the existing intermodal platforms and implementing new ones in strategic areas.

Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

2014-06-01

The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tullio Ricci

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

2014-12-01

Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

Bike Helmets and Black Riders: Experiential Approaches to Helping Students Understand Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S. A.; Kley, J.; Hindle, D.; Friedrich, A. M.

2014-12-01

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? These topics are challenging because they are far from normal experience, in that they involve rare events and large sums. To help students in natural hazard classes conceptualize them, we pose tough and thought-provoking questions about complex issues involved and explore them together via lectures, videos, field trips, and in-class and homework questions. We discuss analogous examples from the students' experiences, drawing on a new book "Playing Against Nature, Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World". Asking whether they wear bicycle helmets and why or why not shows the cultural perception of risk. Individual students' responses vary, and the overall results vary dramatically between the US, UK, and Germany. Challenges in hazard assessment in an uncertain world are illustrated by asking German students whether they buy a ticket on public transportation - accepting a known cost - or "ride black" - not paying but risking a heavy fine if caught. We explore the challenge of balancing mitigation costs and benefits via the question "If you were a student in Los Angeles, how much more would you pay in rent each month to live in an earthquake-safe building?" Students learn that interdisciplinary thinking is needed, and that due to both uncertainties and sociocultural factors, no unique or right strategies exist for a particular community, much the less all communities. However, we can seek robust policies that give sensible results given

TSUNAMI HAZARD MITIGATION AND THE NOAA NATIONAL WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James R. Hubbard

2002-01-01

Full Text Available With the renewed interest in regional Tsunami Warning Systems and the potential tsunami threats throughout the Caribbean and West coast of the United States, the National Ocean Service (NOS, National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON consisting of 175 primary stations, is well situated to play a role in the National Hazard Mitigation effort. In addition, information regarding local mean sea level trends and GPS derived geodetic datum relationships at numerous coastal locations is readily available for tsunami hazard assessment and mapping applications.Tsunami inundation maps and modeling are just two of the more important products which may be derived from NWLON data. In addition to the seven water level gauges that are hardwired into the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WClATWC, NOS has a significant number of gauges with real-time satellite telemetry capabilities located along the Pacific Northwest coastline, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. These gauges, in concert with near shore buoy systems, have the potential for increasing the effectiveness of the existing tsunami warning system.The recent expansion of the Caribbean Sea Level Gauge Network through the NOS regional partnerships with Central American and Caribbean countries have opened an opportunity for a basin-wide tsunami warning network in a region which is ill prepared for a major tsunami event.

Mitigation of hydrogen hazards in water cooled power reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-02-01

Past considerations of hydrogen generated in containment buildings have tended to focus attention on design basis accidents (DBAs) where the extent of the in-core metal-water reaction is limited at low values by the operation of the emergency core cooling systems (ECCS). The radiolysis of water in the core and in the containment sump, together with the possible corrosion of metals and paints in the containment, are all relatively slow processes. Therefore, in DBAs the time scale involved for the generation of hydrogen allows sufficient time for initiation of measures to control the amount of hydrogen in the containment atmosphere and to prevent any burning. Provisions have been made in most plants to keep the local hydrogen concentration below its flammability limit (4% of volume) by means of mixing devices and thermal recombiners. Severe accidents, involving large scale core degradation and possibly even core concrete interactions, raise the possibility of hydrogen release rates greatly exceeding the capacity of conventional DBA hydrogen control measures. The accident at Three Mile Island illustrated the potential of unmitigated hydrogen accumulation to escalate the potential consequences of a severe accident. In a severe accident scenario, local high hydrogen concentrations can be reached in a short time, leading to flammable gas mixtures in containment. Another possibility is that local high steam concentrations will initially create an inert atmosphere and prevent burning for a limited time. While such temporary inerting provides additional time for mixing (dilution) of the hydrogen with containment air, depending on the quantity of hydrogen released, it prevents early intervention by deliberate ignition and sets up conditions for more severe combustion hazards after steam condensation eventually occurs, e.g., by spray initiation or the long term cooling down of the containment atmosphere. As the foregoing example indicates, analysis of the hydrogen threat in

Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, L.; Glicken, H.; Ui, T.

1987-01-01

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of

Hazard Map of the Poás Volcano

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Barrantes Castillo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Poás volcano presents a series of hazards to the lives and activities of the communities in its surroundings; these hazards include ash fall, volcanic gases, ballistic projection, pyroclastic flows, lahars and lava flows. In the study described in this article, risks were zoned and integrated to form combined hazard maps for later use in territorial planning processes. With respect to methodology, the study was based on a heuristic approximation, which was supported with cartographic, geomorphological, and historical impact criteria to achieve a suitable product in terms of scale and ease of interpretation. These maps present greater detail and integration than other works and cartographies of volcanic hazards in Costa Rica.

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

Science.gov (United States)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: a natural laboratory for studying basaltic volcanism: Chapter 1 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, Robert I.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Brantley, Steven R.; Neal, Christina A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe.

Natural Hazard Resilience - A Large-scale Transdisciplinary "National Science Challenge" for New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The National Science Challenges are initiatives to address the most important public science issues that face New Zealand with long-term funding and the combined strength of a coordinated science-sector behind them. Eleven major topics are tackled, across our human, natural and built environments. In the "Resilience Challenge" we address New Zealand's natural hazards. Alongside severe metrological threats, New Zealand also faces one of the highest levels of earthquake and volcanic hazard in the world. Resilience is a hotly discussed concept, here, we take the view: Resilience encapsulates the features of a system to anticipate threats, acknowledge there will be impacts (no matter how prepared we are), quickly pick up the pieces, as well as learn and adapt from the experience to better absorb and rebound from future shocks. Our research must encompass innovation in building and lifelines engineering, planning and regulation, emergency management practice, alongside understanding how our natural hazard systems work, how we monitor them and how our communities/governance/industries can be influenced and encouraged (e.g., via economic incentives) to develop and implement resilience practice. This is a complex interwoven mix of areas and is best addressed through case-study areas where researchers and the users of the research can jointly identify problems and co-develop science solutions. I will highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of this coordinated approach to an all-hazard, all-country problem, using the example of the Resilience Challenge approach after its first two and a half years of operation. Key issues include balancing investment into high-profile (and often high consequence), but rare hazards against the frequent "monthly" hazards that collectively occupy regional and local governance. Also, it is clear that despite increasingly sophisticated hazard and hazard mitigation knowledge being generated in engineering and social areas, a range of policy

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

1997-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

Seveso II directive in prevention and mitigation of consequences of chemical terrorism, safety management systems in hazardous installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klicek, M.

2009-01-01

Mayor accidents caused by hazardous substances are great threat to public. The consequences are often very severe with great number of injured people or even deaths and a great material damage. Statistic data shows that the main cause of accidents in hazardous installations is 'human factor', including the possibility of terrorist attack, or classic military operations. In order to ensure effective chemical safety, the actions should be taken by industry, public authorities, communities and other stake holders to prevent industrial accidents. Safety should be an integral part of the business activities of an enterprise, and all hazardous installations should strive to reach the ultimate goal of zero incidents. Safety management systems (SMS) should include appropriate technology and processes, as well as establishing an effective organisational structure. To mitigate consequences of accidents, emergency planning, land-use planning and risk communication is necessary. Adequate response in the event of accident should limit adverse consequences to health, environment and property. Follow-up actions are needed to learn from the accidents and other unexpected events, in order to reduce future incidents. In this paper the author will discus the implementing of SEVESO II directive in obtaining two main goals: major accident prevention and mitigation of consequences for men and environment in case of possible terrorist actions or military activities. Some Croatian experiences in implementing of UNEP APELL Programme, and its connection with SEVESO II directive will be shown.(author)

Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

2017-04-01

Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit

In-flight dynamics of volcanic ballistic projectiles

Science.gov (United States)

Taddeucci, J.; Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, M. A.; Cruz-Vázquez, O.; Del Bello, E.; Scarlato, P.; Ricci, T.

2017-09-01

Centimeter to meter-sized volcanic ballistic projectiles from explosive eruptions jeopardize people and properties kilometers from the volcano, but they also provide information about the past eruptions. Traditionally, projectile trajectory is modeled using simplified ballistic theory, accounting for gravity and drag forces only and assuming simply shaped projectiles free moving through air. Recently, collisions between projectiles and interactions with plumes are starting to be considered. Besides theory, experimental studies and field mapping have so far dominated volcanic projectile research, with only limited observations. High-speed, high-definition imaging now offers a new spatial and temporal scale of observation that we use to illuminate projectile dynamics. In-flight collisions commonly affect the size, shape, trajectory, and rotation of projectiles according to both projectile nature (ductile bomb versus brittle block) and the location and timing of collisions. These, in turn, are controlled by ejection pulses occurring at the vent. In-flight tearing and fragmentation characterize large bombs, which often break on landing, both factors concurring to decrease the average grain size of the resulting deposits. Complex rotation and spinning are ubiquitous features of projectiles, and the related Magnus effect may deviate projectile trajectory by tens of degrees. A new relationship is derived, linking projectile velocity and size with the size of the resulting impact crater. Finally, apparent drag coefficient values, obtained for selected projectiles, mostly range from 1 to 7, higher than expected, reflecting complex projectile dynamics. These new perspectives will impact projectile hazard mitigation and the interpretation of projectile deposits from past eruptions, both on Earth and on other planets.

44 CFR 78.5 - Flood Mitigation Plan development.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.5 Flood Mitigation Plan development. A Flood Mitigation Plan will articulate a...

Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Verrier, M.

2011-12-01

As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation

Subsurface Fire Hazards Technical Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Logan, R.C.

1999-01-01

The results from this report are preliminary and cannot be used as input into documents supporting procurement, fabrication, or construction. This technical report identifies fire hazards and proposes their mitigation for the subsurface repository fire protection system. The proposed mitigation establishes the minimum level of fire protection to meet NRC regulations, DOE fire protection orders, that ensure fire containment, adequate life safety provisions, and minimize property loss. Equipment requiring automatic fire suppression systems is identified. The subsurface fire hazards that are identified can be adequately mitigated

Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

2014-10-01

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice

Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

2009-01-01

In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

2017-12-01

Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

VHub - Cyberinfrastructure for volcano eruption and hazards modeling and simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Valentine, G. A.; Jones, M. D.; Bursik, M. I.; Calder, E. S.; Gallo, S. M.; Connor, C.; Carn, S. A.; Rose, W. I.; Moore-Russo, D. A.; Renschler, C. S.; Pitman, B.; Sheridan, M. F.

2009-12-01

Volcanic risk is increasing as populations grow in active volcanic regions, and as national economies become increasingly intertwined. In addition to their significance to risk, volcanic eruption processes form a class of multiphase fluid dynamics with rich physics on many length and time scales. Risk significance, physics complexity, and the coupling of models to complex dynamic spatial datasets all demand the development of advanced computational techniques and interdisciplinary approaches to understand and forecast eruption dynamics. Innovative cyberinfrastructure is needed to enable global collaboration and novel scientific creativity, while simultaneously enabling computational thinking in real-world risk mitigation decisions - an environment where quality control, documentation, and traceability are key factors. Supported by NSF, we are developing a virtual organization, referred to as VHub, to address this need. Overarching goals of the VHub project are: Dissemination. Make advanced modeling and simulation capabilities and key data sets readily available to researchers, students, and practitioners around the world. Collaboration. Provide a mechanism for participants not only to be users but also co-developers of modeling capabilities, and contributors of experimental and observational data sets for use in modeling and simulation, in a collaborative environment that reaches far beyond local work groups. Comparison. Facilitate comparison between different models in order to provide the practitioners with guidance for choosing the "right" model, depending upon the intended use, and provide a platform for multi-model analysis of specific problems and incorporation into probabilistic assessments. Application. Greatly accelerate access and application of a wide range of modeling tools and related data sets to agencies around the world that are charged with hazard planning, mitigation, and response. Education. Provide resources that will promote the training of the

Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2007-01-01

In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 “bald-earth” topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results.

GIS-Based emergency and evacuation planning for volcanic hazards in New Zealand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cole, J. W.; Sabel, C. E.; Blumenthal, E.

2005-01-01

(reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from CIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity...... in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active...... volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent...

Occupational Health Hazards among Healthcare Workers in Kampala, Uganda

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawlance Ndejjo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To assess the occupational health hazards faced by healthcare workers and the mitigation measures. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional study utilizing quantitative data collection methods among 200 respondents who worked in 8 major health facilities in Kampala. Results. Overall, 50.0% of respondents reported experiencing an occupational health hazard. Among these, 39.5% experienced biological hazards while 31.5% experienced nonbiological hazards. Predictors for experiencing hazards included not wearing the necessary personal protective equipment (PPE, working overtime, job related pressures, and working in multiple health facilities. Control measures to mitigate hazards were availing separate areas and containers to store medical waste and provision of safety tools and equipment. Conclusion. Healthcare workers in this setting experience several hazards in their workplaces. Associated factors include not wearing all necessary protective equipment, working overtime, experiencing work related pressures, and working in multiple facilities. Interventions should be instituted to mitigate the hazards. Specifically PPE supply gaps, job related pressures, and complacence in adhering to mitigation measures should be addressed.

Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

2009-12-01

study was completed to help improve volcanic ash detection, forecast models and warnings and to assist policy makers and the airlines to refine preparatory measures for the prevention of future volcanic ash encounters. It’s overarching objective is not only to reduce the potentially catastrophic loss of aircraft and human life posed by the volcanic ash hazard, but more often to mitigate the economic impact from flight delays and cancellations. In that vein, this project supports Sub Goal 3A of the NASA Strategic Plan, “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.”

Neotectonics of Graciosa island (Azores: a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of a volcanic area in a complex geodynamic setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Hipólito

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Graciosa is a mid-Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic island that lies in a complex plate boundary between the North American, Eurasian, and Nubian plates. Large fault scarps displace the oldest (Middle Pleistocene volcanic units, but in the younger areas recent volcanism (Holocene to Upper Pleistocene conceals the surface expression of faulting, limiting neotectonic observations. The large displacement accumulated by the older volcanic units when compared with the younger formations suggests a variability of deformation rates and the possibility of alternating periods of higher and lower tectonic deformation rates; this would increase the recurrence interval of surface rupturing earthquakes. Nevertheless, in historical times a few destructive earthquakes affected the island attesting for its seismic hazard. Regarding the structural data, two main fault systems, incompatible with a single stress field, were identified at Graciosa Island. Thus, it is proposed that the region is affected by two alternating stress fields. The stress field #1 corresponds to the regional stress regime proposed by several authors for the interplate shear zone that constitutes the Azorean segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. It is suggested that the stress field #2 will act when the area under the influence of the regional stress field #1 narrows as a result of variations in the differential spreading rates north and south of Azores. The islands closer to the edge of the sheared region will temporarily come under the influence of a different (external stress field (stress field #2. Such data support the concept that, in the Azores, the Eurasia-Nubia boundary corresponds to a complex and wide deformation zone, variable in time.

Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

Science.gov (United States)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

2008-01-01

More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

Estimation of volcanic ash emissions using trajectory-based 4D-Var data assimilation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, S.; Lin, X.; Heemink, A.W.; Fu, G.; Segers, A.J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore,

San Miguel Volcanic Seismic and Structure in Central America: Insight into the Physical Processes of Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A.; Konter, J. G.

2010-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and - 88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. In general, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We initially locate events using automated routines and focus on analyzing local events. We then relocate each seismic event by hand-picking P-wave arrivals, and later refine these picks using waveform cross correlation. Using a double difference earthquake location algorithm (HypoDD), we identify a set of earthquakes that vertically align beneath the edifice of the volcano, suggesting that we have identified a magma conduit feeding the volcano. We also apply a double-difference earthquake tomography approach (tomoDD) to investigate the volcano’s plumbing system. Our preliminary results show the extent of the magma chamber that also aligns with some horizontal seismicity. Overall, this volcano is very active and presents a significant hazard to the region.

WOVOdat Design Document: The Schema, Table Descriptions, and Create Table Statements for the Database of Worldwide Volcanic Unrest (WOVOdat Version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Venezky, Dina Y.; Newhall, Christopher G.

2007-01-01

WOVOdat Overview During periods of volcanic unrest, the ability to forecast near future activity has been a primary concern for human populations living near volcanoes. Our ability to forecast future activity and mitigate hazards is based on knowledge of previous activity at the volcano exhibiting unrest and knowledge of previous activity at similar volcanoes. A small set of experts with past experience are often involved in forecasting. We need to both preserve the knowledge the experts use and continue to investigate volcanic data to make better forecasts. Advances in instrumentation, networking, and data storage technologies have greatly increased our ability to collect volcanic data and share observations with our colleagues. The wealth of data creates numerous opportunities for gaining a better understanding of magmatic conditions and processes, if the data can be easily accessed for comparison. To allow for comparison of volcanic unrest data, we are creating a central database called WOVOdat. WOVOdat will contain a subset of time-series and geo-referenced data from each WOVO observatory in common and easily accessible formats. WOVOdat is being created for volcano experts in charge of forecasting volcanic activity, scientists investigating volcanic processes, and the public. The types of queries each of these groups might ask range from, 'What volcanoes were active in November of 2002?' and 'What are the relationships between tectonic earthquakes and volcanic processes?' to complex analyses of volcanic unrest to determine what future activity might occur. A new structure for storing and accessing our data was needed to examine processes across a wide range of volcanologic conditions. WOVOdat provides this new structure using relationships to connect the data parameters such that searches can be created for analogs of unrest. The subset of data that will fill WOVOdat will continue to be collected by the observatories, who will remain the primary archives of raw

The Lanzarote Geodynamic Laboratory: new capabilities for monitoring of volcanic activity at Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Arnoso, J.; Vélez, E. J.; Soler, V.; Montesinos, F. G.; Benavent, M.

2012-04-01

manifestations at the surface level, and to compare geodynamic processes associated with an active area of the Earth's crust. In turn, the results obtained can provide new inputs for studying precursor of volcanic activity and also contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation. The LGL aims to be a permanent status of renewal, using new technologies for data recording and real time transmission, as well as for testing new sensors, scientific equipment and observational techniques related to monitoring and observation of volcanic activity. All these capabilities are necessary when high-resolution ground based observations must provide us the basis for studying the sources of volcanic deformation. The laboratory is thus open to support and to enhance the collaboration among scientists, as well as national and international institutions involved in research at active volcanic areas.

The California Hazards Institute

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

Probing Aircraft Flight Test Hazard Mitigation for the Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Research Team . Volume 2; Appendices

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The Alternative Fuel Effects on Contrails and Cruise Emissions (ACCESS) Project Integration Manager requested in July 2012 that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) form a team to independently assess aircraft structural failure hazards associated with the ACCESS experiment and to identify potential flight test hazard mitigations to ensure flight safety. The ACCESS Project Integration Manager subsequently requested that the assessment scope be focused predominantly on structural failure risks to the aircraft empennage (horizontal and vertical tail). This report contains the Appendices to Volume I.

Can hazard risk be communicated through a virtual experience?

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, J T

1997-09-01

Cyberspace, defined by William Gibson as a consensual hallucination, now refers to all computer-generated interactive environments. Virtual reality, one of a class of interactive cyberspaces, allows us to create and interact directly with objects not available in the everyday world. Despite successes in the entertainment and aviation industries, this technology has been called a 'solution in search of a problem'. The purpose of this commentary is to suggest such a problem: the inability to acquire experience with a hazard to motivate mitigation. Direct experience with a hazard has been demonstrated as a powerful incentive to adopt mitigation measures. While we lack the ability to summon hazard events at will in order to gain access to that experience, a virtual environment can provide an arena where potential victims are exposed to a hazard's effects. Immersion as an active participant within the hazard event through virtual reality may stimulate users to undertake mitigation steps that might otherwise remain undone. This paper details the possible direction in which virtual reality may be applied to hazards mitigation through a discussion of the technology, the role of hazard experience, the creation of a hazard stimulation and the issues constraining implementation.

Volcanic geomorphology using TanDEM-X

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Michael; Kubanek, Julia

2016-04-01

Topography is perhaps the most fundamental dataset for any volcano, yet is surprisingly difficult to collect, especially during the course of an eruption. For example, photogrammetry and lidar are time-intensive and often expensive, and they cannot be employed when the surface is obscured by clouds. Ground-based surveys can operate in poor weather but have poor spatial resolution and may expose personnel to hazardous conditions. Repeat passes of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data provide excellent spatial resolution, but topography in areas of surface change (from vegetation swaying in the wind to physical changes in the landscape) between radar passes cannot be imaged. The German Space Agency's TanDEM-X satellite system, however, solves this issue by simultaneously acquiring SAR data of the surface using a pair of orbiting satellites, thereby removing temporal change as a complicating factor in SAR-based topographic mapping. TanDEM-X measurements have demonstrated exceptional value in mapping the topography of volcanic environments in as-yet limited applications. The data provide excellent resolution (down to ~3-m pixel size) and are useful for updating topographic data at volcanoes where surface change has occurred since the most recent topographic dataset was collected. Such data can be used for applications ranging from correcting radar interferograms for topography, to modeling flow pathways in support of hazards mitigation. The most valuable contributions, however, relate to calculating volume changes related to eruptive activity. For example, limited datasets have provided critical measurements of lava dome growth and collapse at volcanoes including Merapi (Indonesia), Colima (Mexico), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and of basaltic lava flow emplacement at Tolbachik (Kamchatka), Etna (Italy), and Kīlauea (Hawai`i). With topographic data spanning an eruption, it is possible to calculate eruption rates - information that might not otherwise be available

eVADE: Volcanic Ash Detection Raman LIDAR, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

Volcanic Ash Detection Using Raman LIDAR: "VADER", Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

OpenAIRE

Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

2012-01-01

The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Pierson, Thomas C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

2014-01-01

Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

Assessment of volcanic and geothermal activity in the Pasco Basin and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1980-01-01

Event network analyses indicate the most likely volcanic hazard to the Pasco Basin is influx of ash fall tephra from source areas in the Cascade Range. Less likely, but still notable, is the possibility of water flooding the Pasco Basin as a result of volcanic damming of one or more major drainages in the region. The least probable hazards include (1) influx of ash flows from eruptions in the Cascade Range or the Basin and Range Province, (2) renewed flood basalt volcanism, and (3) breaching of a repository by a dike or fissure. It is highly unlikely that volcanism will pose a direct threat to the integrity of any nuclear waste repositories in the Pasco Basin. Low-temperature geothermal water (20 degrees--90 degrees C) is present at random locations within the Pasco Basin and vicinity. This water may represent a potential resource only for direct heating purposes. Available data indicate no geothermal reservoirs with temperatures high enough and depths shallow enough for economical production of electricity are present within the Pasco Basin. 70 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

2013-03-01

The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

Deriving spatial patterns from a novel database of volcanic rock geochemistry in the Virunga Volcanic Province, East African Rift

Science.gov (United States)

Poppe, Sam; Barette, Florian; Smets, Benoît; Benbakkar, Mhammed; Kervyn, Matthieu

2016-04-01

eruption of 1957 belongs to these primitive clusters and is the only known to have erupted outside the current rift valley in historical times. We thus infer there is a distributed hazard of vent opening susceptibility additional to the susceptibility associated with the main Virunga edifices. This study suggests that the statistical analysis of such geochemical database may help to understand complex volcanic plumbing systems and the spatial distribution of volcanic hazards in active and poorly known volcanic areas such as the Virunga Volcanic Province.

Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

2010-05-01

Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Science.gov (United States)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

2004-10-01

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

Science.gov (United States)

Paris, Raphaël

2015-10-28

Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

1995-07-01

In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

44 CFR 78.6 - Flood Mitigation Plan approval process.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flood Mitigation Plan..., DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE § 78.6 Flood Mitigation Plan approval process. The State POC will forward all Flood...

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

Science.gov (United States)

Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

2014-12-01

A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

Remote Sensing for Hazard Mitigation and Resource Protection in Pacific Latin America: New NSF sponsored initiative at Michigan Tech.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, W. I.; Bluth, G. J.; Gierke, J. S.; Gross, E.

2005-12-01

Though much of the developing world has the potential to gain significantly from remote sensing techniques in terms of public health and safety and, eventually, economic development, they lack the resources required to advance the development and practice of remote sensing. Both developed and developing countries share a mutual interest in furthering remote sensing capabilities for natural hazard mitigation and resource development, and this common commitment creates a solid foundation upon which to build an integrated education and research project. This will prepare students for careers in science and engineering through their efforts to solve a suite of problems needing creative solutions: collaboration with foreign agencies; living abroad immersed in different cultures; and adapting their academic training to contend with potentially difficult field conditions and limited resources. This project makes two important advances: (1) We intend to develop the first formal linkage among geoscience agencies from four Pacific Latin American countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Ecuador), focusing on the collaborative development of remote sensing tools for hazard mitigation and water resource development; (2) We will build a new educational system of applied research and engineering, using two existing educational programs at Michigan Tech: a new Peace Corp/Master's International (PC/MI) program in Natural Hazards which features a 2-year field assignment, and an "Enterprise" program for undergraduates, which gives teams of geoengineering students the opportunity to work for three years in a business-like setting to solve real-world problems This project will involve 1-2 post-doctoral researchers, 3 Ph.D., 9 PC/MI, and roughly 20 undergraduate students each year.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-09-11

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

,

2010-01-01

The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption.

15 CFR 923.25 - Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Shoreline erosion/mitigation planning... erosion/mitigation planning. (a) The management program must include a planning process for assessing the... planning process may be within the broader context of coastal hazard mitigation planning. (b) The basic...

Web-Based Geospatial Tools to Address Hazard Mitigation, Natural Resource Management, and Other Societal Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Hearn,, Paul P.

2009-01-01

Federal, State, and local government agencies in the United States face a broad range of issues on a daily basis. Among these are natural hazard mitigation, homeland security, emergency response, economic and community development, water supply, and health and safety services. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) helps decision makers address these issues by providing natural hazard assessments, information on energy, mineral, water and biological resources, maps, and other geospatial information. Increasingly, decision makers at all levels are challenged not by the lack of information, but by the absence of effective tools to synthesize the large volume of data available, and to utilize the data to frame policy options in a straightforward and understandable manner. While geographic information system (GIS) technology has been widely applied to this end, systems with the necessary analytical power have been usable only by trained operators. The USGS is addressing the need for more accessible, manageable data tools by developing a suite of Web-based geospatial applications that will incorporate USGS and cooperating partner data into the decision making process for a variety of critical issues. Examples of Web-based geospatial tools being used to address societal issues follow.

Assessment of indirect losses and costs of emergency for project planning of alpine hazard mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Amenda, Lisa; Pfurtscheller, Clemens

2013-04-01

By virtue of augmented settling in hazardous areas and increased asset values, natural disasters such as floods, landslides and rockfalls cause high economic losses in Alpine lateral valleys. Especially in small municipalities, indirect losses, mainly stemming from a breakdown of transport networks, and costs of emergency can reach critical levels. A quantification of these losses is necessary to estimate the worthiness of mitigation measures, to determine the appropriate level of disaster assistance and to improve risk management strategies. There are comprehensive approaches available for assessing direct losses. However, indirect losses and costs of emergency are widely not assessed and the empirical basis for estimating these costs is weak. To address the resulting uncertainties of project appraisals, a standardized methodology has been developed dealing with issues of local economic effects and emergency efforts needed. In our approach, the cost-benefit-analysis for technical mitigation of the Austrian Torrent and Avalanche Control (TAC) will be optimized and extended using the 2005-debris flow as a design event, which struggled a small town in the upper Inn valley in southwest Tyrol (Austria). Thereby, 84 buildings were affected, 430 people were evacuated and due to this, the TAC implemented protection measures for 3.75 million Euros. Upgrading the method of the TAC and analyzing to what extent the cost-benefit-ratio is about to change, is one of the main objectives of this study. For estimating short-run indirect effects and costs of emergency on the local level, data was collected via questionnaires, field mapping, guided interviews, as well as intense literature research. According to this, up-to-date calculation methods were evolved and the cost-benefit-analysis of TAC was recalculated with these new-implemented results. The cost-benefit-ratio will be more precise and specific and hence, the decision, which mitigation alternative will be carried out

Earth Hazards Consortium: a Novel Approach to Student Education in Geoscience

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, C. P.; Delgado Granados, H.; Escobar Wolf, R.; Durant, A.; Girard, G.; Calder, E.; Dominguez, T.; Roberge, J.; Rose, W.; Stix, J.; Varley, N.; Williams-Jones, G.; Hernandez Javier, I.; Salinas Sanchez, S.

2007-05-01

The Earth Hazards (Ehaz) consortium consists of six research-based universities in the United States (Michigan Technological University, University of New York at Buffalo), Canada (McGill University, Simon Fraser University) and Mexico (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Universidad de Colima) funded by the U.S. Department of Education, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, and the Secretaría de Educación Pública of Mexico, as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The objective of the consortium is to expose students to a wide variety of scientific and cultural perspectives in the mitigation of geological natural hazards in North America. This four-year program is multi-faceted, including student exchanges, graduate level, web-based courses in volcanology, and intensive group field trips. In 2005 to 2006, a total of 27 students were mobilized among the three countries. In this first year, the videoconferencing course focused on caldera "Supervolcanoes" with weekly discussion leaders from various fields of volcanology. At the end of the course the students participated in a field trip to Long Valley and Yellowstone calderas. Also during the first year of the program, Mexico hosted an International Course on Volcanic Hazards Map Construction. The course was attended by graduate students from Mexico and the United States, included lectures from noted guest speakers, and involved a field trip to Popocatépetl volcano. The multi-university course focus for 2007 is Volcanic Edifice Failure with a field trip planned in August 2007 to the Cascades and Western Canada. A student survey from 2006 demonstrated that (1) during the videoconferencing the students benefited by the weekly interaction with well-known volcanologists at the top of their field, (2) the field trip provided an outstanding opportunity for participants to link the theoretical concepts covered during the course with the field aspects of supervolcano systems, as well as the

Volcanic Characteristics of Kueishantao in Northeast Taiwan and Their Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Lung Chiu

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Kueishantao (KST is a small offshore volcanic island located at the southernmost part of the Okinawa Trough. In this study, we conducted a detailed mapping incorporating the new high resolution LiDAR DTM laser scanning device to accurately construct a volcanic sequence. A new 1/5000 geological map was established. One primary volcanic cone, composed of layers of both lava flows and pyroclastic rocks constituted the major edifice of KST. The other minor volcanic cone, which consists of volcanic lapillis and blocks, is seated to the east of the main cone. The escarped and nearly straight coast in the southern part of the KST indicates that the volcano suffered a large post-volcanic edifice collapse erasing nearly one half of the volume of both volcanic cones. The increase in the abundance of the xenoliths of sedimentary rocks from the lower to the upper part of the volcanic sequence indicates that the formation of volcanic rocks of the KST involved an intensification of crustal contamination. The possibility of volcanic eruption can not be excluded in the future based on the present thermolu¬minescene age data of 7 ka. The associated eruptive ash fall and tsunami induced by the further collapse of the KST volcanic edifice might have great influence to the adjacent inland. Thus, long-term monitoring of volcanic activities around KST should be required for future hazard assessments.

Education as a key objective of the interdisciplinary volcanic risk mitigation strategy VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE for developing resilient and sustainable areas around Vesuvius

Science.gov (United States)

Dobran, F.; Imperatrice, A.

2017-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE requires the achievement of 5 key objectives for Summa-Vesuvius area: (1) Development of temporary settlements for the inhabitants close to their native homeland until the volcanic crisis subsides; (2) Division of the danger zone into an exclusion nucleus that prohibits all future human settlements and discourages the existing ones, a resilience belt that houses most of the current populations, and a sustainable area beyond the resilience belt that allows for sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of resilience belt citizens following the volcanic crises; (3) Development of built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone by utilizing plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, global volcanic simulator, and dynamic structural analysis; (4) Implementation of volcanic risk information and education campaigns for different risk areas surrounding the volcano; and (5) Production of a memorandum of understanding between the authorities and scientific communities, and production of periodic progress reports for keeping the populations informed on the developments leading to the realization of the above objectives.For the past 20 years we have devoted considerable efforts towards the achievement of educational objectives. We worked with local volunteers and social and cultural organizations and with our colleagues delivered over 200 public and school seminars in 15 communities around Vesuvius, organized 2 international scientific meetings for allowing the public and high school children to interact directly with the scientists working on this volcano, and established numerous contacts with school teachers for helping them engage their students on Vesuvius from the scientific, artistic, social, and cultural perspectives. Every year GVES has been the promoter of Vesuvius area manifestations where the school children have the opportunities to expose their works on this volcano and

Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Challenges in understanding, modelling, and mitigating Lake Outburst Flood Hazard: experiences from Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Mergili, Martin; Schneider, Demian; Andres, Norina; Worni, Raphael; Gruber, Fabian; Schneider, Jean F.

2010-05-01

Lake Outburst Floods can evolve from complex process chains like avalanches of rock or ice that produce flood waves in a lake which may overtop and eventually breach glacial, morainic, landslide, or artificial dams. Rising lake levels can lead to progressive incision and destabilization of a dam, to enhanced ground water flow (piping), or even to hydrostatic failure of ice dams which can cause sudden outflow of accumulated water. These events often have a highly destructive potential because a large amount of water is released in a short time, with a high capacity to erode loose debris, leading to a powerful debris flow with a long travel distance. The best-known example of a lake outburst flood is the Vajont event (Northern Italy, 1963), where a landslide rushed into an artificial lake which spilled over and caused a flood leading to almost 2000 fatalities. Hazards from the failure of landslide dams are often (not always) fairly manageable: most breaches occur in the first few days or weeks after the landslide event and the rapid construction of a spillway - though problematic - has solved some hazardous situations (e.g. in the case of Hattian landslide in 2005 in Pakistan). Older dams, like Usoi dam (Lake Sarez) in Tajikistan, are usually fairly stable, though landsildes into the lakes may create floodwaves overtopping and eventually weakening the dams. The analysis and the mitigation of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard remains a challenge. A number of GLOFs resulting in fatalities and severe damage have occurred during the previous decades, particularly in the Himalayas and in the mountains of Central Asia (Pamir, Tien Shan). The source area is usually far away from the area of impact and events occur at very long intervals or as singularities, so that the population at risk is usually not prepared. Even though potentially hazardous lakes can be identified relatively easily with remote sensing and field work, modeling and predicting of GLOFs (and also

A perspective multidisciplinary geological approach for mitigation of effects due to the asbestos hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Vignaroli, Gianluca; Rossetti, Federico; Belardi, Girolamo; Billi, Andrea

2010-05-01

during rock fragmentation). Accordingly, we are confident that definition of an analytical protocol based on the geological attributes of the asbestos-bearing rocks may constitute a propaedeutical tool to evaluate the asbestos hazard in natural environments. This approach may have important implications for mitigation effects of the asbestos hazard from the medical field to the engineering operations.

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

2015-04-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

Geomorphological insights on human-volcano interactions and use of volcanic materials in pre-Hispanic cultures of Costa Rica through the Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz, Paulo; Mana, Sara; Gutiérrez, Amalia; Alarcón, Gerardo; Garro, José; Soto, Gerardo J.

2018-02-01

Critical Zones in tropical environments, especially near active volcanoes, are rich in resources such as water, food and construction materials. In Central America, people have lived near volcanic centers for thousands of years and learned to take advantage of these resources. Understanding how pre-Hispanic societies lived in this type of Critical Zones and interacted with volcanoes, provides us with insights on how to reduce the negative impact derived from volcanic activity in modern cities. In this multidisciplinary approach we focus on two case studies in Costa Rica near Poás and Turrialba volcanoes, which are currently active, in order to obtain a comprehensive view of human-volcano interactions through time. We use a methodology based on historical accounts, geological and archaeological fieldwork, geomorphological characterization based on remote sensing techniques and past (pre-Hispanic), and present land use analysis. The northern Poás region represents a case of a poorly developed pre-Hispanic society, which subsisted mainly on hunting and gathering activities, had no permanent settlements and was probably affected by the activity of the Hule and Río Cuarto maars. In spite of their vulnerability and lack of infrastructure, they used geomorphology to their advantage, achieving natural protection. Conversely, the Guayabo National Monument near Turrialba Volcano represents a cultural peak in pre-Hispanic societies in Costa Rica. Archaeological remains and structures at this site indicate that this society had a good understanding of physical and geological processes and was therefore able to take advantage of natural resources for water and food supply, construction, and protection as well as hazard prevention and mitigation. The use of new technologies, some accessible and low-cost such as Google Earth and others with restricted access and higher costs such as LiDAR, allowed us to complete a rapid and efficient characterization of land use and

Mitigating flood exposure

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

2013-01-01

Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

Earth and water resources and hazards in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Charles G.; Fary, R.W.; Guffanti, Marianne; Laura, Della; Lee, M.P.; Masters, C.D.; Miller, R.L.; Quinones-Marques, Ferdinand; Peebles, R.W.; Reinemund, J.A.; Russ, D.P.

1984-01-01

Long-range economic development in Central America will depend in large part on production of indigenous mineral, energy, and water resources and on mitigation of the disastrous effects of geologic and hydrologic hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods. The region has six world-class metal mines at present as well as additional evidence of widespread mineralization. Systematic investigations using modern mineral exploration techniques should reveal more mineral deposits suitable for development. Widespread evidence of lignite and geothermal resources suggests that intensive studies could identify producible energy sources in most Central American countries. Water supply and water quality vary greatly from country to country. Local problems of ground- and surface-water availability and of contamination create a need for systematic programs to provide better hydrologic data, capital improvements, and management. Disastrous earthquakes have destroyed or severely damaged many cities in Central America. Volcanic eruptions, landslides, mudflows, and floods have devastated most of the Pacific side of Central America at one time or another. A regional approach to earthquake, volcano, and flood-risk analysis and monitoring, using modern technology and concepts, would provide the facilities and means for acquiring knowledge necessary to reduce future losses. All Central American countries need to strengthen institutions and programs dealing with earth and water resources and natural hazards. Some of these needs may be satisfied through existing or pending projects and technical and economic assistance from U.S. or other sources. The need for a comprehensive study of the natural resources of Central America and the requirements for their development is evident. The U.S. Caribbean Basin Initiative offers both an excellent opportunity for a regional approach to these pervasive problems and an opportunity for international cooperation.

The Identification of Filters and Interdependencies for Effective Resource Allocation: Coupling the Mitigation of Natural Hazards to Economic Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Agar, S. M.; Kunreuther, H.

2005-12-01

Policy formulation for the mitigation and management of risks posed by natural hazards requires that governments confront difficult decisions for resource allocation and be able to justify their spending. Governments also need to recognize when spending offers little improvement and the circumstances in which relatively small amounts of spending can make substantial differences. Because natural hazards can have detrimental impacts on local and regional economies, patterns of economic development can also be affected by spending decisions for disaster mitigation. This paper argues that by mapping interdependencies among physical, social and economic factors, governments can improve resource allocation to mitigate the risks of natural hazards while improving economic development on local and regional scales. Case studies of natural hazards in Turkey have been used to explore specific "filters" that act to modify short- and long-term outcomes. Pre-event filters can prevent an event from becoming a natural disaster or change a routine event into a disaster. Post-event filters affect both short and long-term recovery and development. Some filters cannot be easily modified by spending (e.g., rural-urban migration) but others (e.g., land-use practices) provide realistic spending targets. Net social benefits derived from spending, however, will also depend on the ways by which filters are linked, or so-called "interdependencies". A single weak link in an interdependent system, such as a power grid, can trigger a cascade of failures. Similarly, weak links in social and commercial networks can send waves of disruption through communities. Conversely, by understanding the positive impacts of interdependencies, spending can be targeted to maximize net social benefits while mitigating risks and improving economic development. Detailed information on public spending was not available for this study but case studies illustrate how networks of interdependent filters can modify

Hydrothermal Liquefaction Treatment Hazard Analysis Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-09-12

Hazard analyses were performed to evaluate the modular hydrothermal liquefaction treatment system. The hazard assessment process was performed in 2 stages. An initial assessment utilizing Hazard Identification and Preliminary Hazards Analysis (PHA) techniques identified areas with significant or unique hazards (process safety-related hazards) that fall outside of the normal operating envelope of PNNL and warranted additional analysis. The subsequent assessment was based on a qualitative What-If analysis. The analysis was augmented, as necessary, by additional quantitative analysis for scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy with the potential for affecting the public. The following selected hazardous scenarios received increased attention: •Scenarios involving a release of hazardous material or energy, controls were identified in the What-If analysis table that prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release. •Scenarios with significant consequences that could impact personnel outside the immediate operations area, quantitative analyses were performed to determine the potential magnitude of the scenario. The set of “critical controls” were identified for these scenarios (see Section 4) which prevent the occurrence or mitigate the effects of the release of events with significant consequences.

Optimal likelihood-based matching of volcanic sources and deposits in the Auckland Volcanic Field

Science.gov (United States)

Kawabata, Emily; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Wang, Ting

2016-09-01

In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracted from the Auckland Volcanic Field, underlying the 1.4 million-population city of Auckland. We examine here the problem of matching these dated deposits to the volcanoes that produced them. The simplest issue is separation in time, which is handled by simulating prior volcano age sequences from direct dates where known, thinned via ordering constraints between the volcanoes. The subproblem of varying deposition thicknesses (which may be zero) at five locations of known distance and azimuth is quantified using a statistical attenuation model for the volcanic ash thickness. These elements are combined with other constraints, from widespread fingerprinted ash layers that separate eruptions and time-censoring of the records, into a likelihood that was optimized via linear programming. A second linear program was used to optimize over the Monte-Carlo simulated set of prior age profiles to determine the best overall match and consequent volcano age assignments. Considering all 20 matches, and the multiple factors of age, direction, and size/distance simultaneously, results in some non-intuitive assignments which would not be produced by single factor analyses. Compared with earlier work, the results provide better age control on a number of smaller centers such as Little Rangitoto, Otuataua, Taylors Hill, Wiri Mountain, Green Hill, Otara Hill, Hampton Park and Mt Cambria. Spatio-temporal hazard estimates are updated on the basis of the new ordering, which suggest that the scale of the 'flare-up' around 30 ka, while still highly significant, was less than previously thought.

Local and remote infrasound from explosive volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, R. S.; Fee, D.; LE Pichon, A.

2014-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large volumes of ash into heavily travelled air corridors and thus pose a significant societal and economic hazard. In remote volcanic regions, satellite data are sometimes the only technology available to observe volcanic eruptions and constrain ash-release parameters for aviation safety. Infrasound (acoustic waves ~0.01-20 Hz) data fill this critical observational gap, providing ground-based data for remote volcanic eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most powerful sources of infrasound observed on earth, with recordings routinely made at ranges of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Advances in infrasound technology and the efficient propagation of infrasound in the atmosphere therefore greatly enhance our ability to monitor volcanoes in remote regions such as the North Pacific Ocean. Infrasound data can be exploited to detect, locate, and provide detailed chronologies of the timing of explosive volcanic eruptions for use in ash transport and dispersal models. We highlight results from case studies of multiple eruptions recorded by the International Monitoring System and dedicated regional infrasound networks (2008 Kasatochi, Alaska, USA; 2008 Okmok, Alaska, USA; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kuriles, Russian Federation; 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Icleand) and show how infrasound is currently used in volcano monitoring. We also present progress towards characterizing and modeling the variability in source mechanisms of infrasound from explosive eruptions using dedicated local infrasound field deployments at volcanoes Karymsky, Russian Federation and Sakurajima, Japan.

Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

2017-04-01

This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Scollo

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV. The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii running models of tephra dispersal, iii plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

1998-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul D.; Stewart, Iain

2016-07-01

This paper presents the findings from a study aimed at understanding whether video games (or serious games) can be effective in enhancing volcanic hazard education and communication. Using the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, we have developed a video game - St. Vincent's Volcano - for use in existing volcano education and outreach sessions. Its twin aims are to improve residents' knowledge of potential future eruptive hazards (ash fall, pyroclastic flows and lahars) and to integrate traditional methods of education in a more interactive manner. Here, we discuss the process of game development including concept design through to the final implementation on St. Vincent. Preliminary results obtained from the final implementation (through pre- and post-test knowledge quizzes) for both student and adult participants provide indications that a video game of this style may be effective in improving a learner's knowledge. Both groups of participants demonstrated a post-test increase in their knowledge quiz score of 9.3 % for adults and 8.3 % for students and, when plotted as learning gains (Hake, 1998), show similar overall improvements (0.11 for adults and 0.09 for students). These preliminary findings may provide a sound foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. This paper also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study.

Geoethics implications in volcanic hazards in Argentina: 24 years of uninterrupted ash-fall

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, Elizabeth I.; Violante, Roberto A.; Uber, Silvia M.; Vázquez Herrera, Marcelo

2016-04-01

The impact of falling ash reaches all human activities, has effects on human and animal health and is subject to climate and ecosystem of the affected regions. From 1991 until 2015 (24 years), more than 5 eruptions with VEI ≥ 4 in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes occurred; pyroclastic, dust and volcanic ash were deposited (mostly) in Argentina. A recurring situation during eruptions of Hudson (1991), Chaiten (2008), Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) and Calbuco (2015) volcanoes was the accumulation, storage and dump of volcanic ash in depressed areas, beaches, lakes, ditches, storm drains, areas of landfills and transfer stations. The issues that this practice has taken are varied: pollution of aquifers, changes in geomorphology and water courses, usually in "inconspicuous" zones, often in places where there are precarious population or high poverty settlements. The consequences are not immediate but the effects in the mid and long term bring serious drawbacks. On the contrary, a good example of intelligent management of the volcanic impact occurred many years before, during the eruption of Descabezado Grande (Quizapu) volcano in 1932. In that case, and as an example, the city of Trenque Lauquen, located nearly 770 km east of the volcano, decided a communitarian task of collection and burial of the ashfall in small areas, this was a very successful performance. The Quizapu ash plumes transported by the Westerlies (winds) covered with a blanket of volcanic ash the city, ashfall also reached the capital cities of Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Uruguay (Montevideo). Also, the bagging process of volcanic ash with reinforced plastics was an example of Good Practice in the management of the emergency. This allowed the entire affected community to take advantage of this "mineral resource" and contributes to achieving collective and participatory work leading to commercialization and sustainability of these products availed as fertilizers, granular base for ceramics and

A drill-hole geodatabase as a tool to investigate geological hazard in Napoli Urban Area

Science.gov (United States)

Albericoa, I.; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.

2003-04-01

Geological investigations in urban areas are complicated by the absence of good outcrops and field exposures, as a result of the density of civil buildings and railway and road network. On the other side, in urban areas geological investigation represents a basic tool to decisional support for the management of present private buildings and public works and for the planning of new ones. This is much more true in urban areas very exposed to geological hazard (volcanic, hydrogeological, seismic) where the high exposed value greatly rises the risk. The methodology to deal with the geological hazard in urban areas here presented is the reconstruction of buried geological formations deduced by drill-holes stratigraphy.The test area is represented by the whole municipality of Napoli city, that proves very apt to the investigation of the hazard in urban areas since it stands over an active volcanic area, comprised between the Campi Flegrei volcanic field and the Somma-Vesuvio district, that both gave explosive and effusive activity through the last centuries. Besides, the extension of the main part of the city constrained between the coastline and the belt of volcanic hills together with the presence of loose material due to pyroclastic activity makes the alluvional events an other hazardous phenomenon for the city. The performed up datable drill-holes geodata-base for the city of Napoli at present contains the record of about 800 holes stratigraphy, collected through the main public and private bodies, reflecting the drill-holes surveys made along the last 50 years before constructing the main railways, roads and aqueduct network. Drill-holes data have been interpreted and can now be read under various viewpoints (geological, lithological, volcanological); the present work presents the first results of the geological hazard investigation. The investigation of buried stratigraphy in the eastern area allows to identify the presence of pyroclastic flow deposits from Somma

Characterising volcanic cycles at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Time series analysis of multi-parameter satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Flower, Verity J. B.; Carn, Simon A.

2015-10-01

The identification of cyclic volcanic activity can elucidate underlying eruption dynamics and aid volcanic hazard mitigation. Whilst satellite datasets are often analysed individually, here we exploit the multi-platform NASA A-Train satellite constellation to cross-correlate cyclical signals identified using complementary measurement techniques at Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. In this paper we present a Multi-taper (MTM) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of coincident SO2 and thermal infrared (TIR) satellite measurements at SHV facilitating the identification of cyclical volcanic behaviour. These measurements were collected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (respectively) in the A-Train. We identify a correlating cycle in both the OMI and MODIS data (54-58 days), with this multi-week feature attributable to episodes of dome growth. The 50 day cycles were also identified in ground-based SO2 data at SHV, confirming the validity of our analysis and further corroborating the presence of this cycle at the volcano. In addition a 12 day cycle was identified in the OMI data, previously attributed to variable lava effusion rates on shorter timescales. OMI data also display a one week (7-8 days) cycle attributable to cyclical variations in viewing angle resulting from the orbital characteristics of the Aura satellite. Longer period cycles possibly relating to magma intrusion were identified in the OMI record (102-, 121-, and 159 days); in addition to a 238-day cycle identified in the MODIS data corresponding to periodic destabilisation of the lava dome. Through the analysis of reconstructions generated from cycles identified in the OMI and MODIS data, periods of unrest were identified, including the major dome collapse of 20th May 2006 and significant explosive event of 3rd January 2009. Our analysis confirms the potential for identification of cyclical volcanic activity through combined

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

2015-01-01

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

49 CFR 195.579 - What must I do to mitigate internal corrosion?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false What must I do to mitigate internal corrosion? 195... SAFETY TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS LIQUIDS BY PIPELINE Corrosion Control § 195.579 What must I do to mitigate internal corrosion? (a) General. If you transport any hazardous liquid or carbon dioxide that...

Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies: 1992--1993 annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The annual report of the Center for Volcanic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, reprints and a Master of Science thesis that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1992 and February 1, 1994. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that have direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics include: (1) polygenetic/polycyclic volcanism in Crater Flat, Nevada; (2) the role of the mantle during crustal extension; (3) the detailed geology of Crater Flat, Nevada; (4) Pliocene volcanoes in the Reveille Range, south-central Nevada; (5) estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruptions. This topic is being studied by Dr. C.H. Ho at UNLV. The report contains copies of these individual papers as they were presented in various conference proceedings

Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, Natalia I.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca H.; Blake, Daniel M.; Davies, Alistair J.; Hayes, Josh L.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas M.; Castelino, Renella; Kennedy, Ben M.; Muspratt, Scott; Woods, Richard

2017-04-01

What happens when a city has a volcanic eruption within its boundaries? To explore the consequences of this rare but potentially catastrophic combination, we develop a detailed multi-hazard scenario of an Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) eruption; the AVF underlies New Zealand's largest city, Auckland. We start with an existing AVF unrest scenario sequence and develop it through a month-long hypothetical eruption based on geologic investigations of the AVF and historic similar eruptions from around the world. We devise a credible eruption sequence and include all volcanic hazards that could occur in an AVF eruption. In consultation with Civil Defence and Emergency Management staff, we create a series of evacuation maps for before, during, and after the hypothetical eruption sequence. Our result is a versatile scenario with many possible applications, developed further in companion papers that explore eruption consequences on transportation and water networks. However, here we illustrate one application: evaluating the consequences of an eruption on electricity service provision. In a collaborative approach between scientists and electricity service providers, we evaluate the impact of the hypothetical eruption to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. We then evaluate how the impacted network functions, accounting for network adaptations (e.g., diverting power away from evacuated areas), site access, and restoration factors. We present a series of regional maps showing areas with full service, rolling outages, and no power as a result of the eruption. This illustrative example demonstrates how a detailed scenario can be used to further understand the ramifications of urban volcanism on local and regional populations, and highlights the importance of looking beyond damage to explore the consequences of volcanism.

Stratigrafi gunung api daerah Bandung Selatan, Jawa Barat

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sutikno Bronto

2014-06-01

Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.17014/ijog.vol1no2.20064The aim of this volcano stratigraphic study is to understand the historic relationship of each volcanoes in the South Bandung area. Methods used in this study are landsat analyses, fi eldwork, petrographic studies, and radiometric dating. Physiographically, South Bandung is composed of mountaineous area, hilly area, and high plain of Pangalengan and Bandung itself. Based on volcanic stratigraphy, volcanic rocks there are divided into eleven rock units, nine of them are identifi ed their volcanic sources, having Pliocene to Quaternary ages. The presence of subsurface Miocene volcanic rocks supports the super imposed volcanisms from Tertiary to Quaternary in this area. Mineral resources of sulphide metals are found in the central facies of Soreang, Kuda, and Dogdog volcanoes. Whereas, geologic hazards covering tectonic earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides also threaten this area. Mineral explorations and hazard mitigations are necessary to the presence of mineral resources and geologic hazard potential.  

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

Modeling of hydrothermal circulation applied to active volcanic areas. The case of Vulcano (Italy)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todesco, M. [Dip. Scienze della Terra, Posa (Italy)

1995-03-01

Modeling of fluid and heat flows through porous media has been diffusely applied up to date to the study of geothermal reservoirs. Much less has been done to apply the same methodology to the study of active volcanoes and of the associated volcanic hazard. Hydrothermal systems provide direct information on dormant eruptive centers and significant insights on their state of activity and current evolution. For this reason, the evaluation of volcanic hazard is also based on monitoring of hydrothermal activity. Such monitoring, however, provides measurements of surface parameters, such as fluid temperature or composition, that often are only representative of the shallower portion of the system. The interpretation of these data in terms of global functioning of the hydrothermal circulation can therefore be highly misleading. Numerical modeling of hydrothermal activity provides a physical approach to the description of fluid circulation and can contribute to its understanding and to the interpretation of monitoring data. In this work, the TOUGH2 simulator has been applied to study the hydrothermal activity at Vulcano (Italy). Simulations involved an axisymmetric domain heated from below, and focused on the effects of permeability distribution and carbon dioxide. Results are consistent with the present knowledge of the volcanic system and suggest that permeability distribution plays a major role in the evolution of fluid circulation. This parameter should be considered in the interpretation of monitoring data and in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at Vulcano.

A critical analysis of hazard resilience measures within sustainability assessment frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, Elizabeth C.; Sattler, Meredith; Friedland, Carol J.

2014-01-01

Today, numerous sustainability assessment frameworks (SAFs) exist to guide designers in achieving sustainable performance in the design of structures and communities. SAFs are beneficial in educating users and are useful tools for incorporating sustainability strategies into planning, design, and construction; however, there is currently a substantial gap in the ability of existing SAFs to incorporate hazard resistance and hazard mitigation in the broader context of sustainable design. This paper analyzes the incorporation of hazard resistant design and hazard mitigation strategies within SAFs via a multi-level analysis of eleven SAFs. The SAFs analyzed range in scale of application (i.e. building, site, community). Three levels of analysis are presented: (1) macro-level analysis comparing the number of measures strictly addressing resilience versus sustainability, (2) meso-level analysis of the coverage of types of hazards within SAFs (e.g. flood, fire), and (3) micro-level analysis of SAF measures connected to flood-related hazard resilience. The results demonstrate that hazard resistance and hazard mitigation do not figure prominently in the intent of SAFs and that weaknesses in resilience coverage exist that have the potential to lead to the design of structures and communities that are still highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme events. - Highlights: • Sustainability assessment frameworks (SAFs) were analyzed for resilience coverage • Hazard resistance and mitigation do not figure prominently in the intent of SAFs • Approximately 75% of SAFs analyzed address three or fewer hazards • Lack of economic measures within SAFs could impact resilience and sustainability • Resilience measures for flood hazards are not consistently included in SAFs

A critical analysis of hazard resilience measures within sustainability assessment frameworks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthews, Elizabeth C., E-mail: echiso1@lsu.edu [Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Sattler, Meredith, E-mail: msattler@lsu.edu [School of Architecture, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA (United States); Friedland, Carol J., E-mail: friedland@lsu.edu [Bert S. Turner Department of Construction Management, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA (United States)

2014-11-15

Today, numerous sustainability assessment frameworks (SAFs) exist to guide designers in achieving sustainable performance in the design of structures and communities. SAFs are beneficial in educating users and are useful tools for incorporating sustainability strategies into planning, design, and construction; however, there is currently a substantial gap in the ability of existing SAFs to incorporate hazard resistance and hazard mitigation in the broader context of sustainable design. This paper analyzes the incorporation of hazard resistant design and hazard mitigation strategies within SAFs via a multi-level analysis of eleven SAFs. The SAFs analyzed range in scale of application (i.e. building, site, community). Three levels of analysis are presented: (1) macro-level analysis comparing the number of measures strictly addressing resilience versus sustainability, (2) meso-level analysis of the coverage of types of hazards within SAFs (e.g. flood, fire), and (3) micro-level analysis of SAF measures connected to flood-related hazard resilience. The results demonstrate that hazard resistance and hazard mitigation do not figure prominently in the intent of SAFs and that weaknesses in resilience coverage exist that have the potential to lead to the design of structures and communities that are still highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme events. - Highlights: • Sustainability assessment frameworks (SAFs) were analyzed for resilience coverage • Hazard resistance and mitigation do not figure prominently in the intent of SAFs • Approximately 75% of SAFs analyzed address three or fewer hazards • Lack of economic measures within SAFs could impact resilience and sustainability • Resilience measures for flood hazards are not consistently included in SAFs.

Geologic aspects of seismic hazards assessment at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, southeastern Idaho

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.P.; Hackett, W.R.; Rodgers, D.W.

1989-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), located on the northwestern side of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), lies in an area influenced by two distinct geologic provinces. The ESRP province is a northeast-trending zone of late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism which transects the northwest-trending, block-fault mountain ranges of the Basin and Range province. An understanding of the interaction of these two provinces is important for realistic geologic hazards assessment. Of particular importance for seismic hazards analysis is the relationship of volcanic rift zones on the ESRP to basin-and-range faults north of the plain. The Arco Rift Zone, a 20-km-long belt of deformation and volcanism on the plain just west of the INEL, is colinear with the basin-and-range Lost River fault. Recent field studies have demonstrated that Arco Rift Zone deformation is typical of that induced by dike injection in other volcanic rift zones. The deformation is characterized by a predominance of dilational fissuring with less extensive development of faults and grabens. Cumulative vertical displacements over the past 0.6 Ma are an order of magnitude lower than those associated with the Arco Segment of the Lost River fault to the northwest. The evidence suggests that the northeast-directed extension that produces the block fault mountains of the Basin and Range is expressed by dike injection and volcanic rift zone development in the ESRP. Seismicity associated with dike injection during rift zone development is typically of low magnitude and would represent only minor hazard compared to that associated with the block faulting. Since the ESRP responds to extension in a manner distinct from basin-and-range faulting, it is not appropriate to consider the volcanic rift zones as extensions of basin-and-range faults for seismic hazard analysis

Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

Science.gov (United States)

Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

2016-04-01

Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code

Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

2016-01-01

To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

Steve Ostro and the Near-Earth Asteroid Impact Hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, Clark R.

2009-09-01

The late Steve Ostro, whose scientific interests in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) primarily related to his planetary radar research in the 1980s, soon became an expert on the impact hazard. He quickly realized that radar provided perspectives on close-approaching NEAs that were both very precise as well as complementary to traditional astrometry, enabling good predictions of future orbits and collision probabilities extending for centuries into the future. He also was among the few astronomers who considered the profound issues raised by this newly recognized hazard and by early suggestions of how to mitigate the hazard. With Carl Sagan, Ostro articulated the "deflection dilemma" and other potential low-probability but real dangers of mitigation technologies that might be more serious than the low-probability impact hazard itself. Yet Ostro maintained a deep interest in developing responsible mitigation technologies, in educating the public about the nature of the impact hazard, and in learning more about the population of threatening bodies, especially using the revealing techniques of delay-doppler radar mapping of NEAs and their satellites.

Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

OpenAIRE

Di Mai, R.; Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.; Petrillo, Z.; Piscitelli, S.; Siniscalchi, A.; Veneruso, M.

1997-01-01

We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, wh...

Rapid laccolith intrusion driven by explosive volcanic eruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Jonathan M; Cordonnier, Benoit; Schipper, C Ian; Tuffen, Hugh; Baumann, Tobias S; Feisel, Yves

2016-11-23

Magmatic intrusions and volcanic eruptions are intimately related phenomena. Shallow magma intrusion builds subsurface reservoirs that are drained by volcanic eruptions. Thus, the long-held view is that intrusions must precede and feed eruptions. Here we show that explosive eruptions can also cause magma intrusion. We provide an account of a rapidly emplaced laccolith during the 2011 rhyolite eruption of Cordón Caulle, Chile. Remote sensing indicates that an intrusion began after eruption onset and caused severe (>200 m) uplift over 1 month. Digital terrain models resolve a laccolith-shaped body ∼0.8 km 3 . Deformation and conduit flow models indicate laccolith depths of only ∼20-200 m and overpressures (∼1-10 MPa) that likely stemmed from conduit blockage. Our results show that explosive eruptions may rapidly force significant quantities of magma in the crust to build laccoliths. These iconic intrusions can thus be interpreted as eruptive features that pose unique and previously unrecognized volcanic hazards.

78 FR 52955 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-27

... community that the Deputy Associate Administrator for Mitigation reconsider the changes. The flood hazard...; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1349] Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency... modification of Base Flood Elevations (BFEs), base flood depths, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundaries or...

On the use of UAVs at active volcanoes: a case study from Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, M.; Chigna, G.; Wood, K.; Richardson, T.; Liu, E.; Schellenberg, B.; Thomas, H.; Naismith, A.

2017-12-01

Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala, is one of Central America's most active systems. More than one hundred thousand people live within ten kilometres of the summit, many of them in profound poverty. Both the summit region and the volcano's steep sided valleys present significant access challenges, mostly associated with unacceptably high risk. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer the opportunity to observe, map and quantify emissions of tephra, gas, lava and heat flux and, using structure from motion algorithms, model dynamic topography. During recent campaigns, the team have completed observations of changes in the summit morphology immediately prior a paroxysmal eruption, mapped the key drainage systems after the fifth of May 2017 eruption and sampled the plume for tephra and gases using a range of onboard instruments. I will present the group's findings within a broader context of hazard mitigation and physical volcanology, and discuss the future of UAVs in volcano monitoring and research.

Source-to-sink sediment transfers, environmental engineering and hazard mitigation in the steep Var River catchment, French Riviera, southeastern France

Science.gov (United States)

Anthony, Edward J.; Julian, Maurice

1999-12-01

Steep coastal margins are potentially subject to mass wasting processes involving notable landslide activity and sediment evacuation downstream by steep-gradient streams. Sediment transfer from short source-to-sink segments, coupled with mountain hydrological regimes, regulate patterns of river channel aggradation and coastal sediment supply in such geomorphic settings. On the steep French Riviera margin, sediment transfers from existing landslides or from various minor mass wasting processes to stream channels may result following bursts of heavy, concentrated rainfall. High-magnitude flooding and massive sediment transport downstream are generally related to unpredictable extreme rainfalls. Both mass movements and channel sediment storage pose serious hazards to downvalley settlements and infrastructure. A consideration of channel sediment storage patterns in the Var River catchment, the most important catchment in this area, highlights two important shortcomings relative to environmental engineering and hazard mitigation practices. In the first place, the appreciation of geomorphic processes is rather poor. This is illustrated by the undersized nature of engineering works constructed to mitigate hazards in the upstream bedload-dominated channels, and by the unforeseen effects that ten rock dams, constructed in the early 1970s, have had on downstream and coastal sediment storage and on sediment dispersal patterns and, consequently, valley flooding. Secondly, planners and environmental engineers have lacked foresight in valley and coastal management issues on this steep setting, notably as regards the reclaimed areas of the lower Var channel and delta liable to flooding. Urbanization and transport and environmental engineering works have progressively affected patterns of storage and transport of fine-grained sediments in the lower Var channel and delta. Meanwhile the problems raised by these changes have not been adequately addressed in terms of scientific

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster's mitigation communication and education strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani

2015-04-01

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won't be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia.

44 CFR 201.4 - Standard State Mitigation Plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... resources to reducing the effects of natural hazards. (b) Planning process. An effective planning process is... location of all natural hazards that can affect the State, including information on previous occurrences of... updating the plan. (ii) A system for monitoring implementation of mitigation measures and project closeouts...

Imaging volcanic CO2 and SO2

Science.gov (United States)

Gabrieli, A.; Wright, R.; Lucey, P. G.; Porter, J. N.

2017-12-01

Detecting and quantifying volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions is of relevance to volcanologists. Changes in the amount and composition of gases that volcanoes emit are related to subsurface magma movements and the probability of eruptions. Volcanic gases and related acidic aerosols are also an important atmospheric pollution source that create environmental health hazards for people, animals, plants, and infrastructures. For these reasons, it is important to measure emissions from volcanic plumes during both day and night. We present image measurements of the volcanic plume at Kīlauea volcano, HI, and flux derivation, using a newly developed 8-14 um hyperspectral imaging spectrometer, the Thermal Hyperspectral Imager (THI). THI is capable of acquiring images of the scene it views from which spectra can be derived from each pixel. Each spectrum contains 50 wavelength samples between 8 and 14 um where CO2 and SO2 volcanic gases have diagnostic absorption/emission features respectively at 8.6 and 14 um. Plume radiance measurements were carried out both during the day and the night by using both the lava lake in the Halema'uma'u crater as a hot source and the sky as a cold background to detect respectively the spectral signatures of volcanic CO2 and SO2 gases. CO2 and SO2 path-concentrations were then obtained from the spectral radiance measurements using a new Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)-based inversion algorithm, which was developed as part of this project. Volcanic emission fluxes were determined by combining the path measurements with wind observations, derived directly from the images. Several hours long time-series of volcanic emission fluxes will be presented and the SO2 conversion rates into aerosols will be discussed. The new imaging and inversion technique, discussed here, are novel allowing for continuous CO2 and SO2 plume mapping during both day and night.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Preliminary review and summary of the potential for tectonic, seismic, and volcanic activity at the Nevada Test Site defense waste disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metcalf, L.A.

1983-03-01

A change from compressional to extensional tectonics, which occurred about 17 m.y. ago, marks the emergence of the present tectonic regime in the southern Great Basin. Crustal extension is continuing at the present time, oriented in a NW-SE direction in the NTS region. Concurrently with the onset of crustal extension a system of NW- and NE-trending shear zones developed, along which mutual offset has occurred. Present seismic and tectonic activity in the NTS region is concentrated along the intersections of the shear zones and in areas of deep basin formation. Natural historic seismicity of the NTS region has been low to moderate. Seismic hazard assessments suggest a maximum magnitude 6-7 earthquake, associated with a maximum peak acceleration of 0.7 to 0.9 g, is probable for the NTS. A return period of 12,700 to 15,000 y for the maximum peak acceleration indicates a relatively low seismic hazard. Silicic volcanism in the NTS region was active from 16 to 6 m.y. ago, followed by a transition to basaltic volcanism. The tectonic settings most favorable for Quaternary basaltic activity are areas of young basin-range extension, caldera ring fracture zones, and intersections of conjugate shear zones. Probability calculations for the Yucca Mountain waste repository result in a volcanic disruption hazard of 10 - 8 to 10 - 9 /y. This value is extremely low and is probably representative of the hazard at Frenchman Flat. However, due to its tectonic setting, Frenchman Flat may be an area conducive to future basaltic volcanism; further investigation is needed to properly assess volcanic hazard

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Marrero

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Natural Hazards Image Database

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazards. Research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for...

Flood Hazard Recurrence Frequencies for the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.F.

2001-01-01

Department of Energy (DOE) regulations outline the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this report is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines, as a function of water elevation, the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves provide basis to avoid unnecessary facility upgrades, to establish appropriate design criteria for new facilities, and to develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method based on precipitation, basin runoff and open channel hydraulics was developed to determine probabilistic flood hazard curves for the Savannah River Site. The calculated flood hazard curves show that the probabilities of flooding existing SRS major facilities are significantly less than 1.E-05 per year

A web-based tool for ranking landslide mitigation measures

Science.gov (United States)

Lacasse, S.; Vaciago, G.; Choi, Y. J.; Kalsnes, B.

2012-04-01

As part of the research done in the European project SafeLand "Living with landslide risk in Europe: Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies", a compendium of structural and non-structural mitigation measures for different landslide types in Europe was prepared, and the measures were assembled into a web-based "toolbox". Emphasis was placed on providing a rational and flexible framework applicable to existing and future mitigation measures. The purpose of web-based toolbox is to assist decision-making and to guide the user in the choice of the most appropriate mitigation measures. The mitigation measures were classified into three categories, describing whether the mitigation measures addressed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability or the elements at risk themselves. The measures considered include structural measures reducing hazard and non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences (or vulnerability and exposure of elements at risk). The structural measures include surface protection and control of surface erosion; measures modifying the slope geometry and/or mass distribution; measures modifying surface water regime - surface drainage; measures mo¬difying groundwater regime - deep drainage; measured modifying the mechanical charac¬teristics of unstable mass; transfer of loads to more competent strata; retaining structures (to modify slope geometry and/or to transfer stress to compe¬tent layer); deviating the path of landslide debris; dissipating the energy of debris flows; and arresting and containing landslide debris or rock fall. The non-structural mitigation measures, reducing either the hazard or the consequences: early warning systems; restricting or discouraging construction activities; increasing resistance or coping capacity of elements at risk; relocation of elements at risk; sharing of risk through insurance. The measures are described in the toolbox with fact sheets providing a

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulidis, Alexandros P; Phillips, Jeremy C; Renfrew, Ian A; Barclay, Jenni; Hogg, Andrew; Jenkins, Susanna F; Robertson, Richard; Pyle, David M

2018-05-02

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

Volcanic Hazards Associated with the NE Sector of Tacaná Volcano, Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, S. R.; Saucedo, R.; Macias, J.; Arce, J.; Garcia-Palomo, A.; Mora, J.; Scolamacchia, T.

2003-12-01

Tacaná volcano, with a height of 4,030 m above sea level, straddles the southern Mexico/Guatemala border. Last active in 1986, when there was a small phreatic event with a duration of a few days, this volcano presents an impending hazard to over 250,000 people. The NE sector of the volcano reveals the violent volcanic history of Tacaná that may be indicative of a serious potential risk to the area. Its earliest pyroclastic history appears to consist of fall, flow, and surge deposits, together with lavas, that have formed megablocks within a series of old debris avalanche deposits. This sector collapse event is overlain by a sequence of pumice fall and ash flow deposits, of which the youngest, less-altered pumice fall deposit shows a minimum thickness of > 4 m, with a dispersal axis trending toward the NE. A second debris avalanche deposit, separated from the above deposits by a paleosoil, is dominated by megablocks of lava and scoriaceous dome material. The current topography around the northeastern flank of the volcano is determined by a third, and most recent debris avalanche deposit, a thick (> 20 m) sequence of six block and ash flows dated at around 16,000 years BP, each separated by 1-10 cm thick ash cloud surge deposit, together with secondary lahar deposits. These are followed by a at least 4 lava flows that extend 2 km down the flank of the volcano. It appears that the most recent pyroclastic event at Tacaná is also recorded in this sector of the volcano: above the block and ash flows occurs a > 1 m thick ash flow unit that can be seen at least 5 km from the vent. Lastly, the Santa Maria Ash fall deposit, produced in 1902, has capped most of the deposits at Tacaná.

Assisted Living Facilities, Locations of Assisted Living Facilities identifed visually and placed on the Medical Multi-Hazard Mitigation layer., Published in 2006, 1:1200 (1in=100ft) scale, Noble County Government.

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Local Govt | GIS Inventory — Assisted Living Facilities dataset current as of 2006. Locations of Assisted Living Facilities identifed visually and placed on the Medical Multi-Hazard Mitigation...

Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

Science.gov (United States)

Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

2008-01-01

Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

30 years in the life of an active submarine volcano: The evolution of Kick-`em-Jenny and implications for hazard in the southern Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R. W.; Berry, C.; Henstock, T.; Collier, J.; Dondin, F. J. Y.; Latchman, J. L.; Robertson, R. E. A.

2017-12-01

Effective monitoring is an essential part of the process of identifying and mitigating volcanic hazards. In the submarine environment this task is made all the more difficult with observations typically limited to land-based seismic networks and infrequent shipboard surveys. Since announcing itself to the world in 1939, the Kick-`em-Jenny (KeJ) volcano, 8km off of the north coast of Grenada, has been the source of 13 episodes of T-phase recordings. These distinctive seismic signals, often coincident with heightened seismicity, have been interpreted as extrusive eruptions with a mean recurrence interval of 5-6 years. Visual confirmation of these episodes is rare and many would be unknown without the seismic evidence. By conducting new bathymetric surveys in 2016 and 2017 and reprocessing 3 further legacy data sets spanning more than 30 years and several such events we are able to present a clearer picture of the development of KeJ through time. The final bathymetric grids produced have a cell size of just 5m and, for the more modern surveys, a vertical accuracy on the order of 1m. These grids easily demonstrate the correlation between T-phase episodes and morphological changes at the volcano's edifice. In the time-period of observation we document a clear construction deficit at KeJ with only 5.75x106m3 of material added through constructive volcanism, while 5 times this amount is lost through landslides and volcanic dome collapse. The peak depth of KeJ now sits at 196m b.s.l., the lowest recorded since 1966. Limited recent magma production means that KeJ may be susceptible to larger eruptions with longer repeat times than those covered in our study. These larger eruptions would pose a more significant local hazard than the small scale volcanic events observed in recent decades. We conclude that T-phase recordings are likely to have a more varied origin than previously discussed, and are unlikely to be solely the result of extrusive submarine eruptions. This

Spreading of Somma-Vesuvio Volcanic Complex: is the Hazard for Plinian Eruptions being reduced?

Science.gov (United States)

Borgia, A.; Tizzani, P.; Solaro, G.; Luongo, G.; Fusi, N.

2003-12-01

Contrary to what is the common knowledge, a detailed structural study of active faulting and rifting of the summit area of Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex, combined with INSAR, levelling data and seismic profiling at sea suggests that the present-day long-term dynamic behaviour of the complex and of its summit caldera is characterized by volcanic spreading. The structural evolution is controlled by a number of asymmetric, intersecting leaf-grabens. The boundary faults of these grabens intersect at different angles the Somma caldera walls generating a set of wedge-horsts. While normal faulting characterizes the Somma caldera walls, the lavas of the past 150 years, infilling the caldera, have been rifted all around the southern, eastern and northern base of Vesuvio's cone, which, in turn, is being displaced seaward. Associated to the subsidence and extension of the summit area, relative uplift occurs along the coast; in addition, deformation of recent sediments 6-18 km offshore also indicate compression and uplift, which appears to be unrelated to regional tectonics. A preliminary evaluation indicates that rifting of the lavas is in the order of 1-2 mm/a with a southwestward average direction of displacement. Based on these data, we suggest that a wide sector of Somma-Vesuvio is spreading on its plastic sedimentary substratum, which have been identified by drilling. Volcanic spreading appears to have controlled the magmatic evolution and the energy decrease of major historic explosive eruptions since 79 AD. If our interpretation is correct, major plinian eruptions should not occur in the near future. On the other hand, rifting around the caldera suggests that volcanic activity could soon be renewed.

Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management: an outcome from MIAVITA project

Science.gov (United States)

Bignami, Christian; Bosi, Vittorio; Costantini, Licia; Cristiani, Chiara; Lavigne, Franck; Thierry, Pierre

2013-04-01

Volcanic eruptions are one of the most impressive, violent and dramatic agents of change on Earth, threatening hundreds of millions of people. The crises management implies a strong cooperation among the main stakeholders (e.g., civil protection authorities, scientific institutions, operational forces). Considering the great amount of different actions required during the whole volcanic cycle (e.g., preparedness, unrest phase, crisis management, resilience), the role and responsibilities of stakeholders should be clarified in advance. In particular, the role of scientists, fundamental in all the phases, should be well discussed with the other stakeholders and well defined, for every country. This will allow a better management and response, and contribute to avoid misunderstanding. The new "Handbook for Volcanic Risk Management" issued by the MIAVITA European project, funded by the European Commission (Mitigate and Assess risk from Volcanic Impact on Terrain and human Activities) gives a contribution to that. Indeed, this handbook aims at synthesizing the acquired knowledge on volcanic risk management, such as prevention, preparedness, mitigation, intervention, crisis management and resilience, in a practical and useful way. It promotes the creation of an ideal bridge between different actors involved in risk management, improving and facilitating interactions among authorities and scientists. This work is based on current scientific research and the shared experience of the different MIAVITA project partners as well as on international good practices previously recommended. The handbook is composed of six sections. The first one briefly explains the global volcanic context and the principles of corresponding risk management. Section 2 contains a description of volcanic phenomena, damage and understanding size and effects that can be expected. Sections 3, 4 and 5 meet preparation and prevention issues and describe actions to be undertaken during the response phase

Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

2011-12-01

Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.

2009-01-01

The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age activity, unrest, that do not culminate in eruptions. Monitoring volcanic activity in the United States is the responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and is accomplished with academic, Federal, and State partners. The VHP supports five Volcano Observatories - the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the exception of HVO, which was established in 1912, the U.S. Volcano Observatories have been established in the past 27 years in response to specific volcanic eruptions or sustained levels of unrest. As understanding of volcanic activity and hazards has grown over the years, so have the extent and types of monitoring networks and techniques available to detect early signs of anomalous volcanic behavior. This increased capability is providing us with a more accurate gauge of volcanic activity in the United States. The purpose of this report is to (1) document the range of volcanic activity that U.S. Volcano Observatories have dealt with, beginning with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, (2) describe some overall characteristics of the activity, and (3) serve as a quick reference to pertinent published literature on the eruptions and unrest documented in this report.

Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

2016-11-10

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

Using fine-scale fuel measurements to assess wildland fuels, potential fire behavior and hazard mitigation treatments in the southeastern USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ottmar, Roger D.; Blake, John I.; Crolly, William T.

2012-01-01

The inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fuelbeds in forests of the southeastern United States may require fine scale fuel measurements for providing reliable fire hazard and fuel treatment effectiveness estimates. In a series of five papers, an intensive, fine scale fuel inventory from the Savanna River Site in the southeastern United States is used for building fuelbeds and mapping fire behavior potential, evaluating fuel treatment options for effectiveness, and providing a comparative analysis of landscape modeled fire behavior using three different data sources including the Fuel Characteristic Classification System, LANDFIRE, and the Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment. The research demonstrates that fine scale fuel measurements associated with fuel inventories repeated over time can be used to assess broad scale wildland fire potential and hazard mitigation treatment effectiveness in the southeastern USA and similar fire prone regions. Additional investigations will be needed to modify and improve these processes and capture the true potential of these fine scale data sets for fire and fuel management planning.

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster’s mitigation communication and education strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani

2015-01-01

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won’t be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia

Vernacular design based on sustainable disaster’s mitigation communication and education strategy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mansoor, Alvanov Zpalanzani, E-mail: nova.zp@gmail.com, E-mail: alvanov@fsrd.itb.ac.id [Visual Communication Design Study Program, Faculty of Art and Design, Institut Teknologi Bandung Jalan Ganesa No. 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

Indonesia is located between three active tectonic plates, which are prone to natural disasters such as earthquake, volcanic eruption, and also giant tidal wave-tsunami. Adequate infrastructure plays an important role in disaster mitigation, yet without good public awareness, the mitigation process won’t be succeeded. The absence of awareness can lead to infrastructure mistreatment. Several reports on lack of understanding or misinterpretation of disaster mitigation especially from rural and coastal communities need to be solved, especially from communication aspects. This is an interdisciplinary study on disaster mitigation communication design and education strategy from visual communication design studies paradigm. This paper depicts research results which applying vernacular design base to elaborate sustainable mitigation communication and education strategy on various visual media and social campaigns. This paper also describes several design approaches which may becomes way to elaborate sustainable awareness and understanding on disaster mitigation among rural and coastal communities in Indonesia.

Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, São Miguel, Azores

Science.gov (United States)

Dibben, Christopher; Chester, David K.

1999-09-01

The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of São Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents ( n=50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation.

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2015-01-01

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major

Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Siniscalchi

1997-06-01

Full Text Available We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, where intense unrest phenomena have long been recorded.

Introducing Meta-models for a More Efficient Hazard Mitigation Strategy with Rockfall Protection Barriers

Science.gov (United States)

Toe, David; Mentani, Alessio; Govoni, Laura; Bourrier, Franck; Gottardi, Guido; Lambert, Stéphane

2018-04-01

The paper presents a new approach to assess the effecctiveness of rockfall protection barriers, accounting for the wide variety of impact conditions observed on natural sites. This approach makes use of meta-models, considering a widely used rockfall barrier type and was developed from on FE simulation results. Six input parameters relevant to the block impact conditions have been considered. Two meta-models were developed concerning the barrier capability either of stopping the block or in reducing its kinetic energy. The outcome of the parameters range on the meta-model accuracy has been also investigated. The results of the study reveal that the meta-models are effective in reproducing with accuracy the response of the barrier to any impact conditions, providing a formidable tool to support the design of these structures. Furthermore, allowing to accommodate the effects of the impact conditions on the prediction of the block-barrier interaction, the approach can be successfully used in combination with rockfall trajectory simulation tools to improve rockfall quantitative hazard assessment and optimise rockfall mitigation strategies.

Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

Science.gov (United States)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

2015-04-01

Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be

Software safety hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lawrence, J.D.

1996-02-01

Techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of analog-based electronic protection systems that serve to mitigate hazards in process control systems have been developed over many years, and are reasonably well understood. An example is the protection system in a nuclear power plant. The extension of these techniques to systems which include digital computers is not well developed, and there is little consensus among software engineering experts and safety experts on how to analyze such systems. One possible technique is to extend hazard analysis to include digital computer-based systems. Software is frequently overlooked during system hazard analyses, but this is unacceptable when the software is in control of a potentially hazardous operation. In such cases, hazard analysis should be extended to fully cover the software. A method for performing software hazard analysis is proposed in this paper

Managing the effects of accelerated glacial melting on volcanic collapse and debris flows: Planchon-Peteroa Volcano, Southern Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Tormey, Daniel

2010-11-01

Glaciated mountains are among the most sensitive environments to climatic changes, and recent work has shown that large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes. With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth's most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life. This paper illustrates these effects in well-studied settings, focusing on the end-Pleistocene to Holocene glaciovolcanic growth and destruction of the cone of the active volcano Planchon-Peteroa in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at latitude 35° 15' S, along the border between Chile and Argentina. The development of the volcano over the last 14,000 years illustrates how glacial melting and magmatic activity can trigger landslides and sector collapses. Planchon had a large sector collapse that produced a highly mobile and erosive debris avalanche 11,000 years BP, and other slope instabilities during the end-Pleistocene/early Holocene deglaciation. The summit amphitheater left after the sector collapse was subject to alternating periods of glaciation and melting-induced lake formation. Breaching of the moraine dams then formed lahars and landslides originating at the western edge of the summit amphitheater, and the deposits are preserved along the western flank of the volcano. Deep incision of moraine deposits further down the western slope of the volcano indicates that the lahars and landslides were water-rich and had high erosive power. As illustrated by Planchon-Peteroa, the interplay among glacial growth and melting, magmatic activity, and slope stability is complex, but must be accounted for in volcanic hazard assessment. Planchon-Peteroa currently has the southernmost temperate zone

Inferring the effects of compositional boundary layers on crystal nucleation, growth textures, and mineral chemistry in natural volcanic tephras through submicron-resolution imaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georg F. Zellmer

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Crystal nucleation and growth are first order processes captured in volcanic rocks and record important information about the rates of magmatic processes and chemical evolution of magmas during their ascent and eruption. We have studied glass-rich andesitic tephras from the Central Plateau of the Southern Taupo Volcanic Zone by electron- and ion-microbeam imaging techniques to investigate down to sub-micrometre scale the potential effects of compositional boundary layers (CBLs of melt around crystals on the nucleation and growth of mineral phases and the chemistry of crystal growth zones. We find that CBLs may influence the types of mineral phases nucleating and growing, and growth textures such as the development of swallowtails. The chemistry of the CBLs also has the capacity to trigger intermittent overgrowths of nanometre-scale bands of different phases in rapidly growing crystals, resulting in what we refer to as cryptic phase zoning. The existence of cryptic phase zoning has implications for the interpretation of microprobe compositional data, and the resulting inferences made on the conditions of magmatic evolution. Identification of cryptic phase zoning may in future lead to more accurate thermobarometric estimates and thus geospeedometric constraints. In future, a more quantitative characterization of CBL formation and its effects on crystal nucleation and growth may contribute to a better understanding of melt rheology and magma ascent processes at the onset of explosive volcanic eruptions, and will likely be of benefit to hazard mitigation efforts.

The scientific management of volcanic crises

Science.gov (United States)

Marzocchi, Warner; Newhall, Christopher; Woo, Gordon

2012-12-01

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Marcato

2012-06-01

Full Text Available For some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis.

In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works.

The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists.

Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina)

Science.gov (United States)

Marcato, G.; Bossi, G.; Rivelli, F.; Borgatti, L.

2012-06-01

For some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis. In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works. The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists.

Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Geological Hazards (DRAFT)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staub, W.P.

1994-06-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed Regis. 5925638) withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 575433) of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications and open-file reports. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift, and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis). First, overviews of volcanic and earthquake activity, and details of offshore geologic hazards is provided for the Hawaiian Islands. Then, a more detailed discussion of onshore geologic hazards is presented with special emphasis on the southern third of Hawaii and the east rift

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.F.

1999-01-01

'A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods.'

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

1997-09-23

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

OpenAIRE

Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

2013-01-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.

2004-01-01

Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai'i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Huala??lai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults ( n =462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Huala??lai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an 'unrealistic optimism bias' and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as

Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

2002-03-01

Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

The seismic project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Oppenheimer, D.H.; Bittenbinder, A.N.; Bogaert, B.M.; Buland, R.P.; Dietz, L.D.; Hansen, R.A.; Malone, S.D.; McCreery, C.S.; Sokolowski, T.J.; Whitmore, P.M.; Weaver, C.S.

2005-01-01

In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years. ?? Springer 2005.

Multi-hazard approaches to civil infrastructure engineering

CERN Document Server

LaFave, James

2016-01-01

This collection focuses on the development of novel approaches to address one of the most pressing challenges of civil engineering, namely the mitigation of natural hazards. Numerous engineering books to date have focused on, and illustrate considerable progress toward, mitigation of individual hazards (earthquakes, wind, and so forth.). The current volume addresses concerns related to overall safety, sustainability and resilience of the built environment when subject to multiple hazards: natural disaster events that are concurrent and either correlated (e.g., wind and surge); uncorrelated (e.g., earthquake and flood); cascading (e.g., fire following earthquake); or uncorrelated and occurring at different times (e.g., wind and earthquake). The authors examine a range of specific topics including methodologies for vulnerability assessment of structures, new techniques to reduce the system demands through control systems; instrumentation, monitoring and condition assessment of structures and foundations; new te...

Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

2015-04-01

Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

Visualizing Volcanic Clouds in the Atmosphere and Their Impact on Air Traffic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunther, Tobias; Schulze, Maik; Friederici, Anke; Theisel, Holger

2016-01-01

Volcanic eruptions are not only hazardous in the direct vicinity of a volcano, but they also affect the climate and air travel for great distances. This article sheds light on the Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro eruptions in 2011. The authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of Nabro's sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. The results here were developed for the 2014 IEEE Scientific Visualization Contest, which centers around the fusion of multiple satellite data modalities to reconstruct and assess the movement of volcanic ash and sulfate aerosol emissions. Using data from three volcanic eruptions that occurred in the span of approximately three weeks, the authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. This video provides animations of the reconstructed ash clouds. https://youtu.be/D9DvJ5AvZAs.

Fourth DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Conference: Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Volume II of the proceedings covers sessions IX - XIV. The general topics of the presented papers are: volcanoes, piping and components, waste tanks, probabilistic seismic hazards, geological and geotechnical aspects, equipment, codes and standards, analysis, and upgrades. Individual papers are indexed separately. (GH)

Digging Our Own Holes: Institutional Perspectives on Seismic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S.; Tomasello, J.

2005-12-01

It has been observed that there are no true students of the earth; instead, we each dig our own holes and sit in them. A similar situation arises in attempts to assess the hazards of earthquakes and other natural disasters and to develop strategies to mitigate them. Ideally, we would like to look at the interests of society as a whole and develop strategies that best balance hazard mitigation with alternative uses of resources. Doing so, however, is difficult for several reasons. First, estimating seismic hazards requires assumptions about the size, recurrence, and shaking from future earthquakes, none of which are well known. Second, we have to chose a definition of seismic hazard, which is even more arbitrary and at least as significant about future earthquakes. Third, mitigating the risks involves economic and policy issues as well as the scientific one of estimating the hazard itself and the engineering one of designing safe structures. As a result, different public and private organizations with different institutional perspectives naturally adopt different approaches. Most organizations have a single focus. For example, those focusing on economic development tend to discount hazards, whereas emergency management groups tend to accentuate them. Organizations with quasi-regulatory duties (BSSC, FEMA, USGS) focus on reducing losses in future earthquakes without considering the cost of mitigation measures or how this use of resources should be balanced with alternative uses of resources that could mitigate other losses. Some organizations, however, must confront these tradeoffs directly because they allocate resources internally. Hence hospitals implicitly trade off more earthquake resistant construction with treating uninsured patients, highway departments balance stronger bridges with other safety improvements, and schools balance safer buildings with after school programs. These choices are complicated by the fact that such infrastructure typically has longer

The onset of the volcanism in the Ciomadul Volcanic Dome Complex (Eastern Carpathians): Eruption chronology and magma type variation

Science.gov (United States)

Molnár, Kata; Harangi, Szabolcs; Lukács, Réka; Dunkl, István; Schmitt, Axel K.; Kiss, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Seghedi, Ioan

2018-04-01

volcanic eruptions were often separated by prolonged (ca. 100 to 200 kyr) quiescence periods. Demonstration of recurrence of volcanism even after such long dormancy has to be considered in assessing volcanic hazards, particularly in seemingly inactive volcanic areas, where no Holocene eruptions occurred. The term of 'volcanoes with Potentially Active Magma Storage' illustrates the potential of volcanic rejuvenation for such long-dormant volcanoes with the existence of melt-bearing crustal magma body.

A novel process for introducing a new intraoperative program: a multidisciplinary paradigm for mitigating hazards and improving patient safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Paz, Jose M; Mark, Lynette J; Herzer, Kurt R; Michelson, James D; Grogan, Kelly L; Herman, Joseph; Hunt, David; Wardlow, Linda; Armour, Elwood P; Pronovost, Peter J

2009-01-01

Since the Institute of Medicine's report, To Err is Human, was published, numerous interventions have been designed and implemented to correct the defects that lead to medical errors and adverse events; however, most efforts were largely reactive. Safety, communication, team performance, and efficiency are areas of care that attract a great deal of attention, especially regarding the introduction of new technologies, techniques, and procedures. We describe a multidisciplinary process that was implemented at our hospital to identify and mitigate hazards before the introduction of a new technique: high-dose-rate intraoperative radiation therapy, (HDR-IORT). A multidisciplinary team of surgeons, anesthesiologists, radiation oncologists, physicists, nurses, hospital risk managers, and equipment specialists used a structured process that included in situ clinical simulation to uncover concerns among care providers and to prospectively identify and mitigate defects for patients who would undergo surgery using the HDR-IORT technique. We identified and corrected 20 defects in the simulated patient care process before application to actual patients. Subsequently, eight patients underwent surgery using the HDR-IORT technique with no recurrence of simulation-identified or unanticipated defects. Multiple benefits were derived from the use of this systematic process to introduce the HDR-IORT technique; namely, the safety and efficiency of care for this select patient population was optimized, and this process mitigated harmful or adverse events before the inclusion of actual patients. Further work is needed, but the process outlined in this paper can be universally applied to the introduction of any new technologies, treatments, or procedures.

Historic hydrovolcanism at Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for eruption hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrazzi, Dario; Németh, Károly; Geyer, Adelina; Álvarez-Valero, Antonio M.; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Bartolini, Stefania

2018-01-01

Deception Island (Antarctica) is the southernmost island of the South Shetland Archipelago in the South Atlantic. Volcanic activity since the eighteenth century, along with the latest volcanic unrest episodes in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, demonstrates that the volcanic system is still active and that future eruptions are likely. Despite its remote location, the South Shetland Islands are an important touristic destination during the austral summer. In addition, they host several research stations and three summer field camps. Deception Island is characterised by a Quaternary caldera system with a post-caldera succession and is considered to be part of an active, dispersed (monogenetic), volcanic field. Historical post-caldera volcanism on Deception Island involves monogenetic small-volume (VEI 2-3) eruptions such forming cones and various types of hydrovolcanic edifices. The scientific stations on the island were destroyed, or severely damaged, during the eruptions in 1967, 1969, and 1970 mainly due to explosive activity triggered by the interaction of rising (or erupting) magma with surface water, shallow groundwater, and ice. We conducted a detailed revision (field petrology and geochemistry) of the historical hydrovolcanic post-caldera eruptions of Deception Island with the aim to understand the dynamics of magma-water interaction, as well as characterise the most likely eruptive scenarios from future eruptions. We specifically focused on the Crimson Hill (estimated age between 1825 and 1829), and Kroner Lake (estimated age between 1829 and 1912) eruptions and 1967, 1969, and 1970 events by describing the eruption mechanisms related to the island's hydrovolcanic activity. Data suggest that the main hazards posed by volcanism on the island are due to fallout, ballistic blocks and bombs, and subordinate, dilute PDCs. In addition, Deception Island can be divided into five areas of expected activity due to magma-water interaction, providing additional

Flood hazard assessment for the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.F.

2000-01-01

A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

Flood Hazard Assessment for the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, K.F.

2000-01-01

A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curves for certain Savannah River Site (SRS) facilities. This paper presents the method used to determine the probabilistic flood elevation curve for F-Area due to runoff from the Upper Three Runs basin. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 420.1, Facility Safety, outlines the requirements for Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing DOE facilities. The NPH considered in this paper is flooding. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve defines as a function of water elevation the annual probability of occurrence or the return period in years. Based on facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curves and the nature of facility operations (e.g., involving hazardous or radioactive materials), facility managers can design permanent or temporary devices to prevent the propagation of flood on site, and develop emergency preparedness plans to mitigate the consequences of floods. A method was developed to determine the probabilistic flood hazard curves for SRS facilities. The flood hazard curves for the SRS F-Area due to flooding in the Upper Three Runs basin are presented in this paper

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

Residentś risk perception of and response to SO2 risk in east Iceland during the volcanic eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun 2014-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún

2016-04-01

Many Icelandic communities are exposed to volcanic eruptions every two to three years. In order to reduce risk and enhance resilience in communities exposed to volcanic hazards, involvement of local communities is essential during all phases of disaster management, from prevention and preparedness, to response and recovery. Preparedness plans for volcanic eruptions are in place for many of the volcanic hazards in Iceland especially evacuation of residents due to immediate threat from glacial outburst floods from sub-glacial eruptions. Some of the recent risks associated with volcanic eruptions have had a slow onset (volcanic gas) while others have had a sudden onset (volcanic ash). The risks are both linked to air quality in inhabited areas and dispersal are highly dependent on prevailing winds so timely forecast and modelling is needed in order to inform the population about the risk. Without preparedness plans many communities in Iceland were exposed to an unanticipated volcanic gas risks from Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in 2014-2015 during an eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun. With no system in place to measure the highly toxic gas from the eruption, the Environmental Agency, The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management and the Directorate of Health set up a system with over 40 handheld gas detectors and online links to 7 detectors around Iceland to monitor the gas. The defined health limit of SO2 is 350 μg/m3 for one hour, while 2600 μg/m3 for 15 minutes for working outdoors. Nevertheless, some communities in Iceland experienced much higher values and the highest measured concentration in communities during the eruption was 21.000 μg/m3. When the concentration of SO2 reached the level of >1000 μg/m3 a warning was issued and SMS text messages were sent to all mobile phones in the affected area. In order to engage with residents during the eruption the Civil Protection and local authorities, Directorate of Health, scientist and specialists

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

2012-12-01

An abundance of hazardous effects including ash fall out, basaltic lava flows and poisonous volcanic gas have been documented at active volcanic centers (e.g. Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand; Bebbington and Cronin 2011) and have been inferred using tools such as geologic mapping and geochemical analyses for prehistoric eruptions (e.g. Cerro Negro, Nicaragua; Hill et al. 1995; McKnight and Williams 1997). The Cascades volcanic history is also dominated by prehistoric eruptions; however the associated hazards have yet to be studied in-depth. Short recurrence rates of cinder cone volcanism (1x10-5 to 5x10-4 events/yr; Smid et al. 2009) likely intensify the probability of human experience with cinder cone hazards. Hence, it is important to understand the effects that cinder cone volcanism can have on communities near the Cascades. In this study, we estimate volatile fluxes of prehistoric Cascade cinder cone eruptions by analyzing olivine-hosted melt inclusions and rapidly quenched tephra matrix glass. The melt inclusions provide pre-eruptive volatile concentrations whereas tephra groundmass glass provides post-eruptive volatile concentrations. By comparing initial and final concentrations we can determine the amounts of sulfur, chlorine and fluorine released into the atmosphere. We have analyzed S, Cl and F concentrations in melt inclusions from cinder cones in the Central Oregon Cascades (Collier Cone, Yapoah Crater, Four-in-One Fissure, Garrison Butte) and in Northern California near Mt. Lassen (Cinder Cone, Basalt of Old Railroad Grade, Basalt of Highway 44). Analyses of volatiles in melt inclusions and matrix glasses were done using the Cameca SX100 electron microprobe at the University of Oregon. Melt inclusions and matrix glass were run under 15kV, 50nA, and 10μm-beam conditions. For F analyses, a use of an LTAP crystal and relatively long counting times (160 sec. on peak) resulted in good analytical precision. Preliminary results for melt inclusions from

Observation of the volcanic plume of Eyjafjallajoekull over continental Europe by MAX-DOAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, S.; Bobrowski, N.; Friess, U.; Platt, U. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); Flentje, H. [DWD, Hohenpeissenberg (Germany); Hoermann, C.; Sihler, H. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); MPI, Mainz (Germany); Kern, C. [USGS, Vancouver (Canada); Wagner, T. [MPI, Mainz (Germany)

2011-07-01

The recent eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull Volcano (Iceland) and the emitted ash plume which disrupted commercial air traffic over Europe has led to an exhaustive debate on how to improve our ability to quantitatively determine the ash load in the atmosphere as a function of time and geographical location. Satellite instruments detecting ash and SO{sub 2} and ground-based LIDAR stations can help constrain atmospheric transport and meteorology models used to predict ash dispersion. However, MAX-DOAS represents an additional tool with considerable potential for the quantitative detection of elevated volcanic ash and SO{sub 2} plumes. It performs especially well during weather conditions in which satellites and LIDARs are impeded in their effectiveness, e.g. in the case of dense clouds above or below the plume, respectively. Here, the advantages and disadvantages of the DOAS technique are discussed, and its potential for monitoring of volcanic ash hazards explored. Results of ash and SO{sub 2} measurements of the Eyjafjallajoekull plume as it passed over Heidelberg are presented as an example of a positive detection of a highly diluted volcanic plume. Their low cost and complementary nature makes MAX-DOAS a promising technology in the field of aviation hazard detection and management.

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

Science.gov (United States)

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

Hazard screening application guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-06-01

The basic purpose of hazard screening is to group precesses, facilities, and proposed modifications according to the magnitude of their hazards so as to determine the need for and extent of follow on safety analysis. A hazard is defined as a material, energy source, or operation that has the potential to cause injury or illness in human beings. The purpose of this document is to give guidance and provide standard methods for performing hazard screening. Hazard screening is applied to new and existing facilities and processes as well as to proposed modifications to existing facilities and processes. The hazard screening process evaluates an identified hazards in terms of the effects on people, both on-site and off-site. The process uses bounding analyses with no credit given for mitigation of an accident with the exception of certain containers meeting DOT specifications. The process is restricted to human safety issues only. Environmental effects are addressed by the environmental program. Interfaces with environmental organizations will be established in order to share information

Use of Space Technology in Flood Mitigation (Western Province, Zambia)

Science.gov (United States)

Mulando, A.

2001-05-01

Disasters, by definition are events that appear suddenly and with little warning. They are usually short lived, with extreme events bringing death, injury and destruction of buildings and communications. Their aftermath can be as damaging as their physical effects through destruction of sanitation and water supplies, destruction of housing and breakdown of transport for food, temporary shelter and emergency services. Since floods are one of the natural disasters which endanger both life and property, it becomes vital to know its extents and where the hazards exists. Flood disasters manifest natural processes on a larger scale and information provided by Remote Sensing is a most appropriate input to analysis of actual events and investigations of potential risks. An analytical and qualitative image processing and interpretation of Remotely Sensed data as well as other data such as rainfall, population, settlements not to mention but a few should be used to derive good mitigation strategies. Since mitigation is the cornerstone of emergency management, it therefore becomes a sustained action that will reduce or eliminate long term risks to people and property from natural hazards such as floods and their effects. This will definitely involve keeping of homes and other sensitive structures away from flood plains. Promotion of sound land use planning based on this known hazard, "FLOODS" is one such form of mitigation that can be applied in flood affected areas within flood plain. Therefore future mitigation technologies and procedures should increasingly be based on the use of flood extent information provided by Remote Sensing Satellites like the NOAA AVHRR as well as information on the designated flood hazard and risk areas.

Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

2003-07-01

Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

Modelling the dynamics and hazards of explosive eruptions: Where we are now, and confronting the next challenges (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Neri, Augusto

2017-04-01

Understanding of explosive eruption dynamics and assessment of their hazards continue to represent challenging issues to the present-day volcanology community. This is largely due to the complex and diverse nature of the phenomena, and the variability and unpredictability of volcanic processes. Nevertheless, important and continuing progress has been made in the last few decades in understanding fundamental processes and in forecasting the occurrences of these phenomena, thanks to significant advances in field, experimental and theoretical modeling investigations. For over four decades, for example, volcanologists have made major progress in the description of the nature of explosive eruptions, considerably aided by the development, improvement, and application of physical-mathematical models. Integral steady-state homogeneous flow models were first used to investigate the different controlling mechanisms and to infer the genesis and evolution of the phenomena. Through continuous improvements and quantum-leap developments, a variety of transient, 3D, multiphase flow models of volcanic phenomena now can implement state-of-the-art formulations of the underlying physics, new-generation analytical and experimental data, as well as high-performance computational techniques. These numerical models have proved to be able to provide key insights in the understanding of the dynamics of explosive eruptions (e.g. convective plumes, collapsing columns, pyroclastic density currents, short-lived explosions, etc.), as well as to represent a valuable tool in the quantification of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards. Simplified models based on a reduction of the system complexity have been also proved useful, combined with Monte Carlo and statistical methods, to generate quantitative probabilistic hazard maps at different space and time scales, some including the quantification of important sources of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the development of physical models

Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

2013-11-01

One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

A geologic and anthropogenic journey from the Precambrian to the new energy economy through the San Juan volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Yager, Douglas B.; Burchell,; Johnson, Raymond H.

2010-01-01

The San Juan volcanic field comprises 25,000 km2 of intermediate composition mid-Tertiary volcanic rocks and dacitic to rhyolitic calderas including the San Juan–Uncompahgre and La Garita caldera-forming super-volcanoes. The region is famous for the geological, ecological, hydrological, archeological, and climatological diversity. These characteristics supported ancestral Puebloan populations. The area is also important for its mineral wealth that once fueled local economic vitality. Today, mitigating and/or investigating the impacts of mining and establishing the region as a climate base station are the focuses of ongoing research. Studies include advanced water treatment, the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of propylitic bedrock for use in mine-lands cleanup, and the use of soil amendments including biochar from beetle-kill pines. Biochar aids soil productivity and revegetation by incorporation into soils to improve moisture retention, reduce erosion, and support the natural terrestrial carbon sequestration (NTS) potential of volcanic soils to help offset atmospheric CO2 emissions. This field trip will examine the volcano-tectonic and cultural history of the San Juan volcanic field as well as its geologic structures, economic mineral deposits and impacts, recent mitigation measures, and associated climate research. Field trip stops will include a visit to (1) the Summitville Superfund site to explore quartz alunite-Au mineralization, and associated alteration and new water-quality mitigation strategies; (2) the historic Creede epithermal-polymetallic–vein district with remarkably preserved resurgent calderas, keystone-graben, and moat sediments; (3) the historic mining town of Silverton located in the nested San Juan–Silverton caldera complex that exhibits base-metal Au-Ag mineralization; and (4) the site of ANC and NTS studies. En route back to Denver, we will traverse Grand Mesa, a high NTS area with Neogene basalt-derived soils and will enjoy a soak

Geohazards (floods and landslides in the Ndop plain, Cameroon volcanic line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wotchoko Pierre

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The Ndop Plain, located along the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL, is a volcano-tectonic plain, formed by a series of tectonic movements, volcanic eruptions and sedimentation phases. Floods (annually and landslides (occasionally occur with devastating environmental effects. However, this plain attracts a lot of inhabitants owing to its fertile alluvial soils. With demographic explosion in the plain, the inhabitants (143,000 people tend to farm and inhabit new zones which are prone to these geohazards. In this paper, we use field observations, laboratory analyses, satellite imagery and complementary methods using appropriate software to establish hazard (flood and landslide maps of the Ndop Plain. Natural factors as well as anthropogenic factors are considered.

Modelling Multi Hazard Mapping in Semarang City Using GIS-Fuzzy Method

Science.gov (United States)

Nugraha, A. L.; Awaluddin, M.; Sasmito, B.

2018-02-01

One important aspect of disaster mitigation planning is hazard mapping. Hazard mapping can provide spatial information on the distribution of locations that are threatened by disaster. Semarang City as the capital of Central Java Province is one of the cities with high natural disaster intensity. Frequent natural disasters Semarang city is tidal flood, floods, landslides, and droughts. Therefore, Semarang City needs spatial information by doing multi hazard mapping to support disaster mitigation planning in Semarang City. Multi Hazards map modelling can be derived from parameters such as slope maps, rainfall, land use, and soil types. This modelling is done by using GIS method with scoring and overlay technique. However, the accuracy of modelling would be better if the GIS method is combined with Fuzzy Logic techniques to provide a good classification in determining disaster threats. The Fuzzy-GIS method will build a multi hazards map of Semarang city can deliver results with good accuracy and with appropriate threat class spread so as to provide disaster information for disaster mitigation planning of Semarang city. from the multi-hazard modelling using GIS-Fuzzy can be known type of membership that has a good accuracy is the type of membership Gauss with RMSE of 0.404 the smallest of the other membership and VAF value of 72.909% of the largest of the other membership.

Environmental legislation as the legal framework for mitigating natural hazards in Spain

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Garrido, Jesús; Arana, Estanislao; Jiménez Soto, Ignacio; Delgado, José

2015-04-01

In Spain, the socioeconomic losses due to natural hazards (floods, earthquakes or landslides) are considerable, and the indirect costs associated with them are rarely considered because they are very difficult to evaluate. The prevention of losses due to natural hazards is more economic and efficient through legislation and spatial planning rather than through structural measures, such as walls, anchorages or structural reinforcements. However, there isn't a Spanish natural hazards law and national and regional sector legislation make only sparse mention of them. After 1978, when the Spanish Constitution was enacted, the Autonomous Communities (Spanish regions) were able to legislate according to the different competences (urban planning, environment or civil protection), which were established in the Constitution. In the 1990's, the Civil Protection legislation (national law and regional civil protection tools) dealt specifically with natural hazards (floods, earthquakes and volcanoes), but this was before any soil, seismic or hydrological studies were recommended in the national sector legislation. On the other hand, some Autonomous Communities referred to natural hazards in the Environmental Impact Assessment legislation (EIA) and also in the spatial and urban planning legislation and tools. The National Land Act, enacted in 1998, established, for the first time, that those lands exposed to natural hazards should be classified as non-developable. The Spanish recast text of the Land Act, enacted by Royal Legislative Decree 2/2008, requires that a natural hazards map be included in the Environmental Sustainability Report (ESR), which is compulsory for all master plans, according to the provisions set out by Act 9/2006, known as Spanish Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Consequently, the environmental legislation, after the aforementioned transposition of the SEA European Directive 2001/42/EC, is the legal framework to prevent losses due to natural hazards

Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

Science.gov (United States)

Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

2012-12-01

Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

Months between rejuvenation and volcanic eruption at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Till, Christy B.; Vazquez, Jorge A.; Boyce, Jeremy W

2015-01-01

Rejuvenation of previously intruded silicic magma is an important process leading to effusive rhyolite, which is the most common product of volcanism at calderas with protracted histories of eruption and unrest such as Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Valles, USA. Although orders of magnitude smaller in volume than rare caldera-forming super-eruptions, these relatively frequent effusions of rhyolite are comparable to the largest eruptions of the 20th century and pose a considerable volcanic hazard. However, the physical pathway from rejuvenation to eruption of silicic magma is unclear particularly because the time between reheating of a subvolcanic intrusion and eruption is poorly quantified. This study uses geospeedometry of trace element profiles with nanometer resolution in sanidine crystals to reveal that Yellowstone’s most recent volcanic cycle began when remobilization of a near- or sub-solidus silicic magma occurred less than 10 months prior to eruption, following a 220,000 year period of volcanic repose. Our results reveal a geologically rapid timescale for rejuvenation and effusion of ~3 km3 of high-silica rhyolite lava even after protracted cooling of the subvolcanic system, which is consistent with recent physical modeling that predict a timescale of several years or less. Future renewal of rhyolitic volcanism at Yellowstone is likely to require an energetic intrusion of mafic or silicic magma into the shallow subvolcanic reservoir and could rapidly generate an eruptible rhyolite on timescales similar to those documented here.

How well do radon mitigation strategies work?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matson, N.

1992-01-01

Naturally occurring radon in homes can't be completely avoided, but it can be minimized. Indoor air quality researchers compared results of six popular ways to mitigate radon in houses in the Spokane River Valley and New Jersey. Over the course of the past decade, Americans have become aware of the health hazards from radon, a naturally occurring gas that can enter a home through a variety of pathways from the surrounding terrain. Recent research carried out at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) and elsewhere suggests that radon mitigation is feasible but requires long-term monitoring to ensure lasting effectiveness. These studies compare the selection, installation, and performance evaluations of several common radon mitigation strategies

Effects of volcanic deposit disaggregation on exposed water composition

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Back, W. E.; Genareau, K. D.

2016-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions produce a variety of hazards. Pyroclastic material can be introduced to water through ash fallout, pyroclastic flows entering water bodies, and/or lahars. Remobilization of tephras can occur soon after eruption or centuries later, introducing additional pyroclastic material into the environment. Introduction of pyroclastic material may alter the dissolved element concentration and pH of exposed waters, potentially impacting drinking water supplies, agriculture, and ecology. This study focuses on the long-term impacts of volcanic deposits on water composition due to the mechanical breakup of volcanic deposits over time. Preliminary work has shown that mechanical milling of volcanic deposits will cause significant increases in dissolved element concentrations, conductivity, and pH of aqueous solutions. Pyroclastic material from seven eruptions sites was collected, mechanically milled to produce grain sizes Soufriere Hills, Ruapehu), mafic (Lathrop Wells) and ultramafic (mantle xenoliths) volcanic deposits. Lathrop Wells has an average bulk concentration of 49.15 wt.% SiO2, 6.11 wt. % MgO, and 8.39 wt. % CaO and produces leachate concentrations of 85.69 mg/kg for Ca and 37.22 mg/kg for Mg. Taupo and Valles Caldera samples have a bulk concentration of 72.9 wt.% SiO2, 0.59 wt. % MgO, and 1.48 wt. % CaO, and produces leachate concentrations of 4.08 mg/kg for Ca and 1.56 mg/kg for Mg. Similar testing will be conducted on the intermediate and ultramafic samples to test the hypothesis that bulk magma composition and mineralogy will directly relate to the increased dissolved element concentration of exposed waters. The measured effects on aqueous solutions will aid in evaluation of impacts to marine and freshwater systems exposed to volcanic deposits.

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

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Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

2016-07-01

Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

Volcanism on Io

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ashley Gerard

2014-03-01

Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

Volcanic harzards studies tailored to future populations and facilities: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keating, Gordon N.; Perry, Frank V.; Harrington, Charles; Krier, Don; Valentine, Greg A.; Gaffney, Edward; Cline, Mike

2004-01-01

The evaluation of impacts of potential volcanic eruptions on populations and facilities far in the future may involve detailed volcanological studies that differ from traditional hazards analyses. The proximity of Quaternary volcanoes to a proposed repository for disposal of the USA's high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has required in-depth study of probability and consequences of basaltic igneous activity. Because of the underground nature of the repository, evaluation of the potential effects of dike intrusion and interaction with the waste packages stored in underground tunnels (dnfts) as well as effects of eruption and ash dispersal have been important. These studies include analyses of dike propagation, dike-drift intersection, flow of magma into dnfts, heat and volcanic gas migration, atmospheric dispersal of tephra, and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra by surficial processes. Unlike traditional volcanic hazards studies that focus on impacts on housing, transportation, communications, etc. (to name a small subset), the igneous consequences studies at Yucca Mountain have focused on evaluation of igneous impacts on nuclear waste packages and implications for enhanced radioactive dose on a hypothetical future ((le) 10000 yrs) local population. Potential exposure pathways include groundwater (affected by in-situ degradation of waste packages by igneous heat and corrosion) and inhalation, ingestion, and external exposure due to deposition and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra

Procedure for Prioritization of Natural Phenomena Hazards Evaluations for Existing DOE Facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Conrads, T.J., Westinghouse Hanford

1996-05-07

This document describes the procedure to be used for the prioritization for natural phenomena hazards evaluations of existing DOE facilities in conformance with DOE Order 5480.28, `Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation.`

FMECA application to Rainfall Hazard prevention in olive trees growings

Science.gov (United States)

Buendia-Buendía, F. S.; Bermudez, R.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.

2010-05-01

The FMECA (Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis) is a broadly extended System Safety tool applied in industries as Aerospace in order to prevent hazards. This methodology studies the different failure modes of a system and try to mitigate them in a systematic procedure. In this paper this tool is applied in order to mitigate economical impact hazards derived from Rainfalls to olive trees growing in Granada (Spain), understanding hazard from the System Safety perspective (Any real or potential condition that can cause injury, illness, or death to personnel; damage to or loss of a system, equipment or property; or damage to the environment). The work includes a brief introduction to the System Safety and FMECA methodologies, applying then these concepts to analyze the Olive trees as a system and identify the hazards during the different stages of the whole life cycle plant production.

Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

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Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

2017-05-15

Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

2010-11-01

A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

Human uses of forested watersheds and riparian corridors: hazard mitigation as an ecosystem service, with examples from Panama, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, M. C.

2015-12-01

Humans have long favored settlement along rivers for access to water supply for drinking and agriculture, for transport corridors, and for food sources. Additionally, settlement in or near montane forests include benefits such as food sources, wood supply, esthetic values, and high quality water resources derived from watersheds where upstream human disturbance and environmental degradation is generally reduced. However, the advantages afforded by these riparian and montane settings pose episodic risks for communities located there as floods, landslides, and wildfires cause loss of life, destroy infrastructure, and damage or destroy crops. A basic understanding of flood probability and magnitude as well as hillslope stability by residents in these environments can mitigate these risks. Early humans presumably developed some degree of knowledge about these risks by means of their long periods of occupation in these environments and their observations of seasonal and storm rainfall patterns and river discharge, which became more refined as agriculture developed over the past 10,000 years. Modern global urbanization, particularly in regions of rapid economic growth, has resulted in much of this "organic" knowledge being lost, as rural populations move into megacities, many of which encroach on floodplains and mountain fronts. Moreover, the most likely occupants of these hazardous locations are often economically constrained, increasing their vulnerabity. Effective stewardship of river floodplains and upstream montane forests yields a key ecosystem service, which in addition to the well-known services, ie. water, hydroelectric energy, etc., provides a risk mitigation service, by reducing hazard and vulnerability. Puerto Rico, Panama, and Venezuela illustrate a range of practices and results, providing useful examples for planners and land use managers.