Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

2010-09-01

The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Connor, Charles

2014-05-01

Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, David P.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McNutt, Stephen R.

2017-01-01

The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO2�

Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

Science.gov (United States)

Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

2010-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

Volcanic hazards of North Island, New Zealand-overview

Science.gov (United States)

Dibble, R. R.; Nairn, I. A.; Neall, V. E.

1985-10-01

In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km 3 are credible.

Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

2014-12-01

For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

Volcanic hazards in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, William I.; Bluth, Gregg J.S.; Carr, Michael J.; Ewert, John W.; Patino, Lina C.; Vallance, James W.

2006-01-01

This volume is a sampling of current scientific work about volcanoes in Central America with specific application to hazards. The papers reflect a variety of international and interdisciplinary collaborations and employ new methods. The book will be of interest to a broad cross section of scientists, especially volcanologists. The volume also will interest students who aspire to work in the field of volcano hazards mitigation or who may want to work in one of Earth’s most volcanically active areas.

The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

2001-12-01

The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

2015-12-01

Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

2016-02-01

During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

Volcanic air pollution hazards in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

2017-04-20

Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other air pollutants emitted from Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i react with oxygen, atmospheric moisture, and sunlight to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog can negatively affect human health and agriculture, and acid rain can contaminate household water supplies by leaching metals from building and plumbing materials in rooftop rainwater-catchment systems. U.S. Geological Survey scientists, along with health professionals and local government officials are working together to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Becerril

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

1990-07-01

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

2017-06-01

We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Stirling

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry

2005-01-01

Basaltic volcanism poses a potential hazard to the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository because multiple episodes of basaltic volcanism have occurred in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) in the past 11 Ma. Intervals between eruptive episodes average about 1 Ma. Three episodes have occurred in the Quaternary at approximately 1.1 Ma (5 volcanoes), 350 ka (2 volcanoes), and 80 ka (1 volcano). Because Yucca Mountain lies within the Basin and Range Province, a significant portion of the pre-Quaternary volcanic history of the YMR may be buried in alluvial-filled basins. An exceptionally high-resolution aeromagnetic survey and subsequent drilling program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began in 2004 and is gathering data that will enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene and Miocene volcanism in the region (Figure 1). DOE has convened a ten-member expert panel of earth scientists that will use the information gathered to update probabilistic volcanic hazard estimates originally obtained by expert elicitation in 1996. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-trending ridges of eastward-tilted fault blocks that are bounded by north to northeast-trending normal faults. Topographic basins filled with up to 500 m of alluvium surround it to the east, south and west. In the past several decades, nearly 50 holes have been drilled in these basins, mainly for Yucca Mountain Project Site Characterization and the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program. Several of these drill holes have penetrated relatively deeply buried (300-400 m) Miocene basalt; a Pliocene basalt dated at 3.8 Ma was encountered at a relatively shallow depth (100 m) in the northern Amargosa Desert (Anomaly B in Figure 1). The current drilling program is the first to specifically target and characterize buried basalt. Based on the new aeromagnetic survey and previous air and ground magnetic surveys (Connor et al. 2000; O'Leary et al. 2002), at least eight drill

Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

2016-04-01

Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

Coping with volcanic hazards; a global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R.I.

1990-01-01

Compared to some other natural hazards-such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides- volcanic hazards strike infrequently. However, in populated areas , even very small eruptions can wreak havoc and cause widespread devastation. For example, the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia ejected only about 3 percent of the volume of ash produced during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Yet, the mudflows triggered by this tiny eruption killed more than 25,000 people.

Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

2015-04-01

Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

1983-03-01

Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

Science.gov (United States)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Bebbington, Mark S.

2015-05-01

The idea of a volcanic field `boundary' is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a `hard' boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the `gaps' between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

Assessment of Muria geochemistry evolution and related to volcanic hazard to NPP site at Muria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basuki Wibowo; June Mellawati; Heni Susiati

2011-01-01

Study of geochemistry evolution aspect in Mt. Muria cycle to predict the level of volcanic hazards posed in the future on Muria nuclear power plant site was conducted. The purpose of the study was to determine the Muria geochemistry condition, tectonic patterns and to predict the level of volcanic hazard in the future on Muria nuclear power plant sites. The methodology used is the collection of secondary data on the complex geochemical conditions Muria volcanic in their life cycle, perform correlation geochemical cycle in its path towards conditions that most likely experienced tectonic, volcanic, and interpretation of the hazard posed. The study shows that geochemical conditions in Muria Volcano complex composed of potassium, low-yield product predicted high-temperature molten magma (decompression) and high potassium levels (compression). Pattern of tectonic decompression geochemical conditions associated with low potassium in Muria old, while the pattern of tectonic compression geochemical conditions associated with high potassium in young Muria. The level of volcanic hazard in the future indicated by the nature of non capable of Mt. Muria. (author)

Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

2014-12-01

Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

2012-12-01

(Hibiscus sabdariffa). Recently it has established tomato and green pepper crops in greenhouses. The regional commercial activities are concentrated in the localities of Ixtlán, Jala and Ahuacatlán. The updated hazard maps are: a) Hazard map of pyroclastic flows, b) Hazard map of lahars and debris flow, and c) Hazard map of ash-fall. The cartographic and database information obtained will be the basis for updating the Operational Plan of the Ceboruco Volcano by the State Civil & Fire Protection Unit of Nayarit, Mexico, and the urban development plans of surrounding municipalities, in order to reduce their vulnerability to the hazards of the volcanic activity.

Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

1989-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

2013-04-01

Approximately 10% of the world's population lives within 100 km of historically active volcanoes. Consequently, considerable critical infrastructure is at risk of being affected by volcanic eruptions, where critical infrastructure includes: electricity and wastewater networks; water supply systems; transport routes; communications; and buildings. Appropriate risk management strategies are required to minimise the risk to infrastructure, which necessitates detailed understanding of both volcanic hazards and infrastructure parameters and vulnerabilities. To address this, we are developing a database of the physical impacts and vulnerability of critical infrastructure observed during/following historic eruptions, placed in the context of event-specific volcanic hazard and infrastructure parameters. Our database considers: volcanic hazard parameters for each case study eruption (tephra thickness, dynamic pressure of PDCs, etc.); inventory of infrastructure elements present within the study area (geographical extent, age, etc.); the type and number of impacts and disruption caused to particular infrastructure sectors; and the quantified assessment of the vulnerability of built environments. Data have been compiled from a wide range of literature, focussing in particular on impact assessment studies which document in detail the damage sustained by critical infrastructure during a given eruption. We are creating a new vulnerability ranking to quantify the vulnerability of built environments affected by volcanic eruptions. The ranking is based upon a range of physical impacts and service disruption criteria, and is assigned to each case study. This ranking will permit comparison of vulnerabilities between case studies as well as indicate expected vulnerability during future eruptions. We are also developing hazard intensity thresholds indicating when specific damage states are expected for different critical infrastructure sectors. Finally, we have developed a data quality

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

2015-12-01

Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (concern on epidemiological monitoring. In 2011 the volcanic complex Puyehue - Cordon Caulle eruption produced ashfall through plumes that reached densely populated cities like San Carlos de Bariloche and Buenos Aires. Farther away in South Africa and New Zealand ash plumes forced airlines to cancel local and international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population

Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ya. D. Muraviev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

2016-08-01

Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

2014-05-01

Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

2011-12-01

Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Krueger, Arlin J.

1999-01-01

The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

2015-04-01

Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

Hazard Potential of Volcanic Flank Collapses Raised by New Megatsunami Evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Ramalho, R. S.; Winckler, G.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Hipólito, A.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.; Schaefer, J. M.

2015-12-01

Large-scale gravitational flank collapses of steep volcanic islands are hypothetically capable of triggering megatsunamis with highly catastrophic effects. Yet evidence for the existence and impact of collapsed-triggered megatsunamis and their run-up heights remains scarce and/or is highly contentious. Therefore a considerable debate still exists over the potential magnitude of collapse-triggered tsunamis and their inherent hazard. In particular, doubts still remain whether or not large-scale flank failures typically generate enough volume flux to result in megatsunamis, or alternatively operate by slow-moving or multiple smaller episodic failures with much lower tsunamigenic potential. Here we show that one of the tallest and most active oceanic volcanoes on Earth - Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands - collapsed catastrophically and triggered a megatsunami with devastating near-field effects ~73,000 years ago. Our deductions are based on the recent discovery and cosmogenic 3He dating of tsunamigenic deposits - comprising fields of stranded megaclasts, chaotic conglomerates, and sand sheets - found on the adjacent Santiago Island, which attest to the impact of this megatsunami and document wave run-up heights exceeding 270 m. The evidence reported here implies that Fogo's flank failure involved at least one sudden and voluminous event that resulted in a megatsunami, in contrast to what has been suggested before. Our work thus provides another line of evidence that large-scale flank failures at steep volcanic islands may indeed happen catastrophically and are capable of triggering tsunamis of enormous height and energy. This new line of evidence therefore reinforces the hazard potential of volcanic island collapses and stands as a warning that such hazard should not be underestimated, particularly in areas where volcanic island edifices are close to other islands or to highly populated continental margins.

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Gunkel

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO₂ occur, and an accumulation of CO₂ in the deep water body must be taken into account.

Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO₂ degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

2014-05-01

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. Volume II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Wohletz, K.H.; Vaniman, D.T.; Gladney, E.; Bower, N.

1986-01-01

Volcanic hazard investigations during FY 1984 focused on five topics: the emplacement mechanism of shallow basalt intrusions, geochemical trends through time for volcanic fields of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone, the possibility of bimodal basalt-rhyolite volcanism, the age and process of enrichment for incompatible elements in young basalts of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region, and the possibility of hydrovolcanic activity. The stress regime of Yucca Mountain may favor formation of shallow basalt intrusions. However, combined field and drill-hole studies suggest shallow basalt intrusions are rare in the geologic record of the southern Great Basin. The geochemical patterns of basaltic volcanism through time in the NTS region provide no evidence for evolution toward a large-volume volcanic field or increases in future rates of volcanism. Existing data are consistent with a declining volcanic system comparable to the late stages of the southern Death Valley volcanic field. The hazards of bimodal volcanism in this area are judged to be low. The source of a 6-Myr pumice discovered in alluvial deposits of Crater Flat has not been found. Geochemical studies show that the enrichment of trace elements in the younger rift basalts must be related to an enrichment of their mantle source rocks. This geochemical enrichment event, which may have been metasomatic alteration, predates the basalts of the silicic episode and is, therefore, not a young event. Studies of crater dimensions of hydrovolcanic landforms indicate that the worst case scenario (exhumation of a repository at Yucca Mountain by hydrovolcanic explosions) is unlikely. Theoretical models of melt-water vapor explosions, particularly the thermal detonation model, suggest hydrovolcanic explosion are possible at Yucca Mountain. 80 refs., 21 figs., 5 tabs

Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

2014-05-01

Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

2017-12-01

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Sobradelo

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

Science.gov (United States)

Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

2007-05-01

During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

Variational data assimilation of satellite observations to estimate volcanic ash emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, S.

2017-01-01

Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

2014-12-01

Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

Science.gov (United States)

Malheiro, A.

2006-08-01

The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heggie, Travis W

2009-09-01

Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

Earth Girl Volcano: An Interactive Casual Game about Complex Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlow, I.

2017-12-01

Earth Girl Volcano is an interactive casual strategy game for disaster preparedness. The project is designed for mainstream audiences, particularly for children, as an engaging and fun way to learn about volcano hazards, monitoring, and mitigation strategies. The game is deceptively simple but it provides a toolbox to address practically all volcanic hazards ranging from gas and ash fall to pyroclastic flows, lava and lahars. This presentation shows the basic dynamic to explore the area, assess the risk, choose the best-suited tools and execute a mitigation strategy within the available budget. This game is a real-time simulation of a crowd evacuation that allows players to intervene before and during the disaster.

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-01-01

Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 μm) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 μm fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 μm fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash (∼ 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM 4 concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been closely linked

Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horwell, Claire Judith

2002-07-01

Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 {mu}m) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 {mu}m fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 {mu}m fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash ({approx} 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM{sub 4} concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been

Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

2017-04-01

-economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sea Eun Cho

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

Volcanic ash and aviation–The challenges of real-time, global communication of a natural hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Lechner, Peter; Tupper, Andrew C.; Guffanti, Marianne C.; Loughlin, Sue; Casadevall, Thomas

2017-01-01

More than 30 years after the first major aircraft encounters with volcanic ash over Indonesia in 1982, it remains challenging to inform aircraft in flight of the exact location of potentially dangerous ash clouds on their flight path, particularly shortly after the eruption has occurred. The difficulties include reliably forecasting and detecting the onset of significant explosive eruptions on a global basis, observing the dispersal of eruption clouds in real time, capturing their complex structure and constituents in atmospheric transport models, describing these observations and modelling results in a manner suitable for aviation users, delivering timely warning messages to the cockpit, flight planners and air traffic management systems, and the need for scientific development in order to undertake operational enhancements. The framework under which these issues are managed is the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ICAO outlines in its standards and recommended practices (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2014) the basic volcanic monitoring and communication that is necessary at volcano observatories in Member States (countries). However, not all volcanoes are monitored and not all countries with volcanoes have mandated volcano observatories or equivalents. To add to the efforts of volcano observatories, a system of Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Traffic Management Area Control Centres, and nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are responsible for observing, analysing, forecasting and communicating the aviation hazard (airborne ash), using agreed techniques and messages in defined formats. Continuous improvement of the IAVW framework is overseen by expert groups representing the operators of the system, the user community, and the science community. The IAVW represents a unique marriage of two scientific disciplines - volcanology and meteorology - with the

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

2000-01-01

The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

2017-04-01

The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

Volcanic-Ash Hazards to Aviation—Changes and Challenges since the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Guffanti, M.; Tupper, A.; Mastin, L. G.; Lechner, P.

2012-12-01

In response to the severe disruptions to civil aviation that resulted from atmospheric transport of ash from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) quickly formed the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF), charging it to support the accelerated development of a global risk-management framework for volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. Recognizing the need for scientifically based advice on best methods to detect ash in the atmosphere and depict zones of hazardous airspace, the IVATF sought input from the global scientific community, primarily by means of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group which was established in May 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics to serve as a scientific resource for ICAO. The IVATF finished its work in June 2012 (see http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/ivatf/Pages/default.aspx for a record of its results). A major science-based outcome is that production of charts depicting areas of airspace expected to have specific ash-concentration values (e.g. 4 mg/cu. m) will not be required of the world's nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). The VAACs are responsible for issuing warning information to the aviation sector regarding ash-cloud position and expected movement. Forecast concentrations in these charts are based primarily on dispersion models that have at least an order of magnitude in uncertainty in their output and therefore do not delineate hazardous airspace with the level of confidence needed by the aviation sector. The recommended approach to improving model-forecast accuracy is to assimilate diverse observations (e.g., satellite thermal-infrared measurements, lidar, radar, direct airborne sampling, visual sightings, etc.) into model simulations; doing that during an eruption in the demanding environment of aviation operations is a substantial challenge. A

Contrasting styles of post-caldera volcanism along the Main Ethiopian Rift: Implications for contemporary volcanic hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Fontijn, Karen; McNamara, Keri; Zafu Tadesse, Amdemichael; Pyle, David M.; Dessalegn, Firawalin; Hutchison, William; Mather, Tamsin A.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

2018-05-01

The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER, 7-9°N) is the type example of a magma-assisted continental rift. The rift axis is populated with regularly spaced silicic caldera complexes and central stratovolcanoes, interspersed with large fields of small mafic scoria cones. The recent (latest Pleistocene to Holocene) history of volcanism in the MER is poorly known, and no eruptions have occurred in the living memory of the local population. Assessment of contemporary volcanic hazards and associated risk is primarily based on the study of the most recent eruptive products, typically those emplaced within the last 10-20 ky. We integrate new and published field observations and geochemical data on tephra deposits from the main Late Quaternary volcanic centres in the central MER to assess contemporary volcanic hazards. Most central volcanoes in the MER host large mid-Pleistocene calderas, with typical diameters of 5-15 km, and associated ignimbrites of trachyte and peralkaline rhyolite composition. In contrast, post-caldera activity at most centres comprises eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas as obsidian flows, domes and pumice cones. The frequency and magnitude of events varies between individual volcanoes. Some volcanoes have predominantly erupted obsidian lava flows in their most recent post-caldera stage (Fentale), whereas other have had up to 3 moderate-scale (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions per millennium (Aluto). At some volcanoes we find evidence for multiple large explosive eruptions (Corbetti, Bora-Baricha, Boset-Bericha) which have deposited several centimetres to metres of pumice and ash in currently densely populated regions. This new overview has important implications when assessing the present-day volcanic hazard in this rapidly developing region. Supplementary Table 2 Main Ethiopian Rift outcrop localities with brief description of geology. All coordinates in Latitude - Longitude, WGS84 datum. Sample names (as listed in Supplementary Table 3a) follow outcrop name

The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily Wilkinson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

2009-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

Science.gov (United States)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2015-04-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

Volcanic Risk Perception and Preparedness in Communities within the Mount Baker and Glacier Peak Lahar Hazard Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2014-12-01

A community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from natural hazards depends on both the physical characteristics of the hazard and the community's inherent resilience. Resilience is shaped by a number of factors including the residents' perception of and preparedness for a natural hazard as well as the level of institutional preparedness. This study examines perception of and preparedness for lahar hazards from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak in Washington's Skagit Valley. Through an online survey, this study isolates the influence of specific variables (e.g., knowledge, past experience, scientific background, trust in various information sources, occupation, self-efficacy, sense of community) on risk perception and explores reasons behind the frequent disconnect between perception and preparedness. We anticipate that individuals with more extensive education in the sciences, especially geology or earth science, foster greater trust in scientists and a more accurate knowledge, understanding, and perception of the volcanic hazards in their community. Additionally, little research exists examining the extent to which first responders and leaders in response-related institutions prepare on a personal level. Since these individuals work toward community preparedness professionally, we hypothesize that they will be more prepared at home than members of the general public. Finally, the Skagit Valley has a significant history of flooding. We expect that the need to respond to and recover from frequent flooding creates a community with an inherently higher level of preparedness for other hazards such as lahars. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of what controls risk perception and the interplay between perception and preparedness. At a broader level, this study provides local and state-level emergency managers information to evaluate and improve response capabilities and communication with the public and key institutions in order to

A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

2015-04-01

Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity

Science.gov (United States)

Lirer, Lucio; Petrosino, Paola; Alberico, Ines; Postiglione, Immacolata

2001-02-01

Distributions of pyroclastic deposits from the main explosive events at Somma-Vesuvio during the 8,000-year B.P.-A.D. 1906 time-span have been analysed to provide maps of volcanic hazard for long-term eruption forecasting. In order to define hazard ratings, the spatial distributions and loads (kg/m2) exerted by the fall deposits on the roofs of buildings have been considered. A load higher than 300 kg/m2 is defined as destructive. The relationship load/frequency (the latter defined as the number of times that an area has been impacted by the deposition of fall deposits) is considered to be a suitable parameter for differentiating among areas according to hazard rating. Using past fall deposit distributions as the basis for future eruptive scenarios, the total area that could be affected by the products of a future Vesuvio explosive eruption is 1,500 km2. The perivolcanic area (274 km2) has the greatest hazard rating because it could be buried by pyroclastic flow deposits thicker than 0.5 m and up to several tens of metres in thickness. Currently, the perivolcanic area also has the highest risk because of the high exposed value, mainly arising from the high population density.

National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

Science.gov (United States)

,; ,

2007-01-01

The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

2014-10-01

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice

LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Gallo

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2008-01-01

Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

2009-05-01

Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

2016-12-01

Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

2005-12-01

The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

GIS-Based emergency and evacuation planning for volcanic hazards in New Zealand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cole, J. W.; Sabel, C. E.; Blumenthal, E.

2005-01-01

(reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from CIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity...... in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active...... volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent...

Introducing Geoscience Students to Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Hazards: The example of Tephra2 on VHub.org

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leah M. Courtland

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The Tephra2 numerical model for tephra fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions is specifically designed to enable students to probe ideas in model literacy, including code validation and verification, the role of simplifying assumptions, and the concepts of uncertainty and forecasting. This numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials. The VHub.org resource provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2. We present a strategy for using this model to introduce university students to key concepts in the use and evaluation of Tephra2 for probabilistic forecasting of volcanic hazards. Through this critical examination students are encouraged to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models. Although the model and applications are intended for use in both introductory and advanced geoscience courses, they could easily be adapted to work in other disciplines, such as astronomy, physics, computational methods, data analysis, or computer science.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: a natural laboratory for studying basaltic volcanism: Chapter 1 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, Robert I.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Brantley, Steven R.; Neal, Christina A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe.

Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

2013-03-01

enough information about the possible effects of an eruption. In addition, residents' sense of community was significantly positively correlated with both confidence in local authorities and Civil Protection as well as residents' feelings of self efficacy regarding their ability to protect themselves from a potential eruption. These results indicate that most residents of Campi Flegrei, while aware of the volcanic threat posed by Vesuvio, are not familiar with more local volcanic hazards in their area. This, coupled with little knowledge about the Emergency Plan and the very low level of information residents have about the effects of a possible eruption, suggests that authorities, in collaboration with the scientific community, should direct their efforts to better educate and inform the population about volcanic hazards and the Emergency Plan, and that such efforts could be facilitated by trying to encourage stronger community bonds.

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

Science.gov (United States)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2016-04-01

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

CERN Document Server

Bevilacqua, Andrea

2016-01-01

This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

2008-09-01

The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

Science.gov (United States)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

2016-04-01

Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

Science.gov (United States)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

OpenAIRE

Di Mai, R.; Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.; Petrillo, Z.; Piscitelli, S.; Siniscalchi, A.; Veneruso, M.

1997-01-01

We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, wh...

Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2010-01-01

The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

2016-01-01

A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

2008-10-01

The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

2017-04-01

Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

2017-07-25

In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

2015-01-01

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toshida, Kiyoshi

2010-01-01

Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-05-01

Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Science.gov (United States)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

2004-10-01

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

Violent Explosive Eruptions in the Ararat Valley, Armenia and Associated Volcanic Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Meliksetian, Khachatur; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Charles; Gevorgyan, Hripsime; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Jrbashyan, Ruben; Ghukasyan, Yura

2016-04-01

volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley based on numerical simulations. Our work is important as Ararat Valley host the capital city of Yerevan (population ˜ 1.4 million) and also the currently operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant at Metsamor. References Keskin,2003. GRL 30, 1-4; Neill et al., 2015 Chemical Geology, 403, p. 24-41; Skolbeltsyn et al. 2014. Tectonics 33, 207-221.

Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Geological Hazards (DRAFT)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staub, W.P.

1994-06-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed Regis. 5925638) withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 575433) of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications and open-file reports. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift, and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis). First, overviews of volcanic and earthquake activity, and details of offshore geologic hazards is provided for the Hawaiian Islands. Then, a more detailed discussion of onshore geologic hazards is presented with special emphasis on the southern third of Hawaii and the east rift

Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

2018-05-09

Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Siniscalchi

1997-06-01

Full Text Available We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, where intense unrest phenomena have long been recorded.

Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

Science.gov (United States)

Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

2014-05-01

Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volcano will be presented. Simulations are made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a high resolution digital elevation map of Montserrat. Simulations with an idealised topography have also been examined, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the Tropics. The model was initialised with soundings from representative days of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season. The heated volcanic dome changes the orographic flow response significantly, depending upon the atmospheric conditions and the magnitude of the dome surface temperature anomaly. The flow regime and qualitative characteristic features, such orographic clouds and rainfall patterns, can all change significantly. For example, the orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased dome temperatures. The implications of these changes on the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards, such as lahars, will be discussed.

Informing Workers of Chemical Hazards: The OSHA Hazard Communication Standard.

Science.gov (United States)

American Chemical Society, Washington, DC.

Practical information on how to implement a chemical-related safety program is outlined in this publication. Highlights of the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administrations (OSHA) Hazard Communication Standard are presented and explained. These include: (1) hazard communication requirements (consisting of warning labels, material safety…

Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Van Eaton, Alexa; Amigo, Álvaro; Bertin, Daniel; Mastin, Larry G.; Giacosa, Raúl E; González, Jerónimo; Valderrama, Oscar; Fontijn, Karen; Behnke, Sonja A

2016-01-01

Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

2014-05-01

In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

2005-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

2009-01-01

Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

Science.gov (United States)

Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

2015-12-01

Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

2017-12-01

Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

2010-11-01

A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

Health and safety information program for hazardous materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Brien, M.P.; Fallon, N.J.; Kuehner, A.V.

1979-01-01

The system is used as a management tool in several safety and health programs. It is used to: trace the use of hazardous materials and to determine monitoring needs; inform the occupational physician of the potential health problems associated with materials ordered by a given individual; inform the fire and rescue group of hazardous materials in a given building; provide waste disposal recommendations to the hazardous waste management group; assist the hazardous materials shipping coordinator in identifying materials which are regulated by the Department of Transportation; and guide management decisions in the area of recognizing and rectifying unsafe conditions. The information system has been expanded from a manual effort to provide a brief description of health hazards of chemicals used at the lab to a computerized health and safety information system which serves the needs of all personnel who may encounter the material in the course of their work. The system has been designed to provide information needed to control the potential problems associated with a hazardous material up to the time that it is consumed in a given operation or is sent to the waste disposal facility

Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

Science.gov (United States)

A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

2017-09-01

The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling of hydrothermal circulation applied to active volcanic areas. The case of Vulcano (Italy)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todesco, M. [Dip. Scienze della Terra, Posa (Italy)

1995-03-01

Modeling of fluid and heat flows through porous media has been diffusely applied up to date to the study of geothermal reservoirs. Much less has been done to apply the same methodology to the study of active volcanoes and of the associated volcanic hazard. Hydrothermal systems provide direct information on dormant eruptive centers and significant insights on their state of activity and current evolution. For this reason, the evaluation of volcanic hazard is also based on monitoring of hydrothermal activity. Such monitoring, however, provides measurements of surface parameters, such as fluid temperature or composition, that often are only representative of the shallower portion of the system. The interpretation of these data in terms of global functioning of the hydrothermal circulation can therefore be highly misleading. Numerical modeling of hydrothermal activity provides a physical approach to the description of fluid circulation and can contribute to its understanding and to the interpretation of monitoring data. In this work, the TOUGH2 simulator has been applied to study the hydrothermal activity at Vulcano (Italy). Simulations involved an axisymmetric domain heated from below, and focused on the effects of permeability distribution and carbon dioxide. Results are consistent with the present knowledge of the volcanic system and suggest that permeability distribution plays a major role in the evolution of fluid circulation. This parameter should be considered in the interpretation of monitoring data and in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at Vulcano.

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Information about public networks is also recorded in order to give an overall idea of the built environment condition of the island. The vulnerability assessment of the technical systems describes the potential damages that could stress systems like electricity supply, water distribution, communication networks or transport systems. These damages can also be described as function disruption of the system. The important aspect is not only the physical capacity of a system to resist, but also its capacity to continue functioning. The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. Six different hazard scenarios have been identified based on a detailed stratigraphic work. The urbanization on Vulcano took place in the 1980s with no real planning and its population mostly subsists on tourism. Our preliminary results show that Vulcano is not characterized by a great variability of architectural typologies and construction materials. Three main types of buildings are present (masonry with concrete frame, masonry with manufactured stone units, masonry with hollow clay bricks) and no statistically significant trends were found between physical and morphological characteristics. The recent signs of volcanic unrest combined with a complex vulnerability of the island due to an uncontrolled urban development and a significant seasonal variation of the exposed population in summer months result in a high volcanic risk. As a result, Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model and to

Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

2001-01-01

Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards: Part II. Validation of satellite-derived Volcanic Sulphur Dioxide Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Koukouli, MariLiza; Balis, Dimitris; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Clarisse, Lieven; Carboni, Elisa; Hedelt, Pascal; Spinetti, Claudia; Theys, Nicolas; Tampellini, Lucia; Zehner, Claus

2014-05-01

The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in the spring of 2010 turned the attention of both the public and the scientific community to the susceptibility of the European airspace to the outflows of large volcanic eruptions. The ash-rich plume from Eyjafjallajökull drifted towards Europe and caused major disruptions of European air traffic for several weeks affecting the everyday life of millions of people and with a strong economic impact. This unparalleled situation revealed limitations in the decision making process due to the lack of information on the tolerance to ash of commercial aircraft engines as well as limitations in the ash monitoring and prediction capabilities. The European Space Agency project Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards, was introduced to facilitate the development of an optimal End-to-End System for Volcanic Ash Plume Monitoring and Prediction. This system is based on comprehensive satellite-derived ash plume and sulphur dioxide [SO2] level estimates, as well as a widespread validation using supplementary satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements. The validation of volcanic SO2 levels extracted from the sensors GOME-2/MetopA and IASI/MetopA are shown here with emphasis on the total column observed right before, during and after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions. Co-located ground-based Brewer Spectrophotometer data extracted from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, WOUDC, were compared to the different satellite estimates. The findings are presented at length, alongside a comprehensive discussion of future scenarios.

Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

2011-12-01

Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

Eruptive dynamics and hazards associated with obsidian bearing ignimbrites of the Geghama Volcanic Highland, Central Armenia: a textural insight

Science.gov (United States)

Matthews, Zoe; Manning, Christina J.

2017-04-01

The Geghama Volcanic highland in central Armenia is an ideal setting to study the young ( 750-25 ka [1]) volcanism that characterises the Lesser Caucasus region. The volcanism in the area is bimodal in composition: the eastern highlands are dominated by numerous monogenetic scoria cones, whilst the west shows more evolved volcanism centered on two obsidian bearing, polygenetic domes (Hatis and Gutanasar) [2]. Activity at Hatis and Gutanasar is thought to have spanned 550ka-200ka [3] and produced a range of products including obsidian flows, ignimbrites and basaltic scoria cones, consistent with long lived and complex magma storage systems. During a similar time period there is evidence for the presence of hominin groups in the surrounding region [3] and it is likely that at least some of the volcanic activity at Hatis and Gutanasar impacted on their distribution [4]. A better understanding of the eruptive behaviour of these volcanoes during this period could therefore shed light on the effect of volcanic activity on the dispersal of man through this period. Whilst large regional studies have striven to better understand the timing and source of volcanism in Armenia, there have been few detailed studies on single volcanoes. Obsidian is ubiquitous within the volcanic material of both Gutanasar and Hatis as lava flows, dome deposits and within ignimbrites. This study aims to better understand the eruptive history of Gutanasar, with specific focus upon the determination of the petrogenetic history of obsidian lenses observed within the ignimbrite deposits. Identification of these obsidians as the result of welding or in-situ melting will help constrain eruptive volumes and flow thickness, important for the reconstruction of palaeo-volcanic hazards. In order to interpret how this obsidian was deposited, macro textural analysis is combined with micro textural measurements of microlite crystals. Quantitative measurements of microlites in obsidian can provide significant

[Effects of volcanic eruptions on environment and health].

Science.gov (United States)

Zuskin, Eugenija; Mustajbegović, Jadranka; Doko Jelinić, Jagoda; Pucarin-Cvetković, Jasna; Milosević, Milan

2007-12-01

Volcanoes pose a threat to almost half a billion people; today there are approximately 500 active volcanoes on Earth, and every year there are 10 to 40 volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions produce hazardous effects for the environment, climate, and the health of the exposed persons, and are associated with the deterioration of social and economic conditions. Along with magma and steam (H2O), the following gases surface in the environment: carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), carbon sulphide (CS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen bromide (HBr) and various organic compounds, as well as heavy metals (mercury, lead, gold).Their unfavourable effects depend on the distance from a volcano, on magma viscosity, and on gas concentrations. The hazards closer to the volcano include pyroclastic flows, flows of mud, gases and steam, earthquakes, blasts of air, and tsunamis. Among the hazards in distant areas are the effects of toxic volcanic ashes and problems of the respiratory system, eyes and skin, as well as psychological effects, injuries, transport and communication problems, waste disposal and water supplies issues, collapse of buildings and power outage. Further effects are the deterioration of water quality, fewer periods of rain, crop damages, and the destruction of vegetation. During volcanic eruptions and their immediate aftermath, increased respiratory system morbidity has been observed as well as mortality among those affected by volcanic eruptions. Unfavourable health effects could partly be prevented by timely application of safety measures.

Volcanic Infrasound - A technical topic communicated in an entertaining way

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlow, Isaac

2017-04-01

Volcanic Infrasound is a 9-minute film about using infrasound waves to detect and measure volcanic eruptions as they unfold. The film was made by an interdisciplinary team of filmmakers and scientists for a general audience. The movie explains the basic facts of using infrasound to detect volcanic activity, and it also shows volcano researchers as they install infrasound sensors in a natural reserve in the middle of the city. This is the first in a series of films that seek to address natural hazards of relevance to Singapore, a country shielded from violent hazards. This presentation reviews the science communication techniques and assumptions used to develop and produce this entertaining scientific documentary short. Trailer: https://vimeo.com/192206460

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

Science.gov (United States)

Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Landeg, O.

Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

Science.gov (United States)

Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

2015-04-01

Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

2014-06-01

The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

77 FR 59675 - Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard Reevaluation

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-28

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2012-0222] Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard... was needed in the areas of seismic and flooding design, and emergency preparedness. In addition to... licensees reevaluate flooding hazards at nuclear power plant sites using updated flooding hazard information...

Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, L.; Glicken, H.; Ui, T.

1987-01-01

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of

Hazard Map of the Poás Volcano

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Barrantes Castillo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Poás volcano presents a series of hazards to the lives and activities of the communities in its surroundings; these hazards include ash fall, volcanic gases, ballistic projection, pyroclastic flows, lahars and lava flows. In the study described in this article, risks were zoned and integrated to form combined hazard maps for later use in territorial planning processes. With respect to methodology, the study was based on a heuristic approximation, which was supported with cartographic, geomorphological, and historical impact criteria to achieve a suitable product in terms of scale and ease of interpretation. These maps present greater detail and integration than other works and cartographies of volcanic hazards in Costa Rica.

National information network and database system of hazardous waste management in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma Hongchang [National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

1996-12-31

Industries in China generate large volumes of hazardous waste, which makes it essential for the nation to pay more attention to hazardous waste management. National laws and regulations, waste surveys, and manifest tracking and permission systems have been initiated. Some centralized hazardous waste disposal facilities are under construction. China`s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) has also obtained valuable information on hazardous waste management from developed countries. To effectively share this information with local environmental protection bureaus, NEPA developed a national information network and database system for hazardous waste management. This information network will have such functions as information collection, inquiry, and connection. The long-term objective is to establish and develop a national and local hazardous waste management information network. This network will significantly help decision makers and researchers because it will be easy to obtain information (e.g., experiences of developed countries in hazardous waste management) to enhance hazardous waste management in China. The information network consists of five parts: technology consulting, import-export management, regulation inquiry, waste survey, and literature inquiry.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

1997-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

Toxics Release Inventory Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) Dataset

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) dataset contains hazard information about the chemicals reported in TRI. Users can...

Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Geological hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Staub, W.P.; Reed, R.M.

1995-03-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent US Geological Survey (USGS) publications and USGS open-file reports related to this project. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis).

Satellite-based detection of volcanic sulphur dioxide from recent eruptions in Central and South America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Loyola

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can emit large amounts of rock fragments and fine particles (ash into the atmosphere, as well as several gases, including sulphur dioxide (SO₂. These ejecta and emissions are a major natural hazard, not only to the local population, but also to the infrastructure in the vicinity of volcanoes and to aviation. Here, we describe a methodology to retrieve quantitative information about volcanic SO₂ plumes from satellite-borne measurements in the UV/Visible spectral range. The combination of a satellite-based SO₂ detection scheme and a state-of-the-art 3D trajectory model enables us to confirm the volcanic origin of trace gas signals and to estimate the plume height and the effective emission height. This is demonstrated by case-studies for four selected volcanic eruptions in South and Central America, using the GOME, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 instruments.

Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

2011-12-01

(rockfall) and pyroclastic flows, b) Hazard map of lahars and debris flow, and c) Hazard map of ash-fall. The cartographic and database information obtained will be the basis for updating the Operational Plan of the Colima Volcano by the State Civil & Fire Protection Unit of Jalisco, Mexico, and the urban development plans of surrounding municipalities, in order to reduce their vulnerability to the hazards of the volcanic activity.

A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

2014-11-01

One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

2009-01-01

In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

2017-12-01

Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2007-01-01

In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 “bald-earth” topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results.

Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Sathnur, Ashwini

2017-04-01

" positives. Cost - free data made available. Minimum band - width problem. Rapid communication system. Validation and Requirements of the New products of the Remote Sensing instruments The qualities of the existing products would be present in the new products also. Along with these qualities, newly devised additional qualities are also required in order to build an advanced remote sensing instrument. The new additional requirements are mentioned below:- Review Comment Number 1 Enlarging the spatial resolution so that the volcanic plumes erupting from the early volcanic eruption is captured by the remote sensing instrument. This spatial resolution data capture would involve better video and camera facilities on the remote sensing instrument. Review Comment Number 2 Capturing the traces of carbon, carbonic acid and water vapour, along with the existing product's capture of sulphur dioxide and volcanic Ash. Review Comment Number 3 Creating an additional module in the instrument to derive the functionality of forecasting a volcanic eruption. This new forecast model should be able to predict the occurrences of volcanic eruption several months in advance. This is basically to create mechanisms for providing early solutions to the problems of mitigation of volcanic hazards. Review Comment Number 4 Creating additional features in the remote sensing instrument to enable the automatic transfer of forecasted eruptions of volcanoes, to the disaster relief operations team. This transfer of information is to be performed automatically, without any request raised from the relief operations team, for the predicted forecast information. This is for the purpose of receiving the information at the right - time, thus eliminating any possibility of occurrences of errors during hazard management.

QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

2013-11-01

One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

Neotectonics of Graciosa island (Azores: a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of a volcanic area in a complex geodynamic setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Hipólito

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Graciosa is a mid-Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic island that lies in a complex plate boundary between the North American, Eurasian, and Nubian plates. Large fault scarps displace the oldest (Middle Pleistocene volcanic units, but in the younger areas recent volcanism (Holocene to Upper Pleistocene conceals the surface expression of faulting, limiting neotectonic observations. The large displacement accumulated by the older volcanic units when compared with the younger formations suggests a variability of deformation rates and the possibility of alternating periods of higher and lower tectonic deformation rates; this would increase the recurrence interval of surface rupturing earthquakes. Nevertheless, in historical times a few destructive earthquakes affected the island attesting for its seismic hazard. Regarding the structural data, two main fault systems, incompatible with a single stress field, were identified at Graciosa Island. Thus, it is proposed that the region is affected by two alternating stress fields. The stress field #1 corresponds to the regional stress regime proposed by several authors for the interplate shear zone that constitutes the Azorean segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. It is suggested that the stress field #2 will act when the area under the influence of the regional stress field #1 narrows as a result of variations in the differential spreading rates north and south of Azores. The islands closer to the edge of the sheared region will temporarily come under the influence of a different (external stress field (stress field #2. Such data support the concept that, in the Azores, the Eurasia-Nubia boundary corresponds to a complex and wide deformation zone, variable in time.

Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

Science.gov (United States)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

2008-01-01

More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

Estimation of volcanic ash emissions using trajectory-based 4D-Var data assimilation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lu, S.; Lin, X.; Heemink, A.W.; Fu, G.; Segers, A.J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore,

Volcano alert level systems: managing the challenges of effective volcanic crisis communication

Science.gov (United States)

Fearnley, C. J.; Beaven, S.

2018-05-01

Over the last four decades, volcano observatories have adopted a number of different communication strategies for the dissemination of information on changes in volcanic behaviour and potential hazards to a wide range of user groups. These commonly include a standardised volcano alert level system (VALS), used in conjunction with other uni-valent communication techniques (such as information statements, reports and maps) and multi-directional techniques (such as meetings and telephone calls). This research, based on interviews and observation conducted 2007-2009 at the five US Geological Survey (USGS) volcano observatories, and including some of the key users of the VALS, argues for the importance of understanding how communicating volcanic hazard information takes place as an everyday social practice, focusing on the challenges of working across the boundaries between the scientific and decision-making communities. It is now widely accepted that the effective use, value and deployment of information across science-policy interfaces of this kind depend on three criteria: the scientific credibility of the information, its relevance to the needs of stakeholders and the legitimacy of both the information and the processes that produced it. Translation and two-way communication are required to ensure that all involved understand what information is credible and relevant. Findings indicate that whilst VALS play a role in raising awareness of an unfolding situation, supplementary communication techniques are crucial in facilitating situational understanding of that situation, and the uncertainties inherent to its scientific assessment, as well as in facilitating specific responses. In consequence, `best practice' recommendations eschew further standardisation, and focus on the in situ cultivation of dialogue between scientists and stakeholders as a means of ensuring that information, and the processes through which it is produced are perceived to be legitimate by all

San Miguel Volcanic Seismic and Structure in Central America: Insight into the Physical Processes of Volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Patlan, E.; Velasco, A.; Konter, J. G.

2010-12-01

The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and - 88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. In general, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We initially locate events using automated routines and focus on analyzing local events. We then relocate each seismic event by hand-picking P-wave arrivals, and later refine these picks using waveform cross correlation. Using a double difference earthquake location algorithm (HypoDD), we identify a set of earthquakes that vertically align beneath the edifice of the volcano, suggesting that we have identified a magma conduit feeding the volcano. We also apply a double-difference earthquake tomography approach (tomoDD) to investigate the volcano’s plumbing system. Our preliminary results show the extent of the magma chamber that also aligns with some horizontal seismicity. Overall, this volcano is very active and presents a significant hazard to the region.

77 FR 65417 - Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard Reevaluation

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-26

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2012-0261] Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard... flooding hazard reanalysis in response to enclosure 2 of a March 12, 2012, information request. DATES... evaluation of whether further regulatory action was needed in the areas of seismic and flooding design, and...

Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift System

Science.gov (United States)

Balagizi, Charles M.; Kies, Antoine; Kasereka, Marcellin M.; Tedesco, Dario; Yalire, Mathieu M.; McCausland, Wendy A.

2018-01-01

recently published information about Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes and Lake Kivu. We also present maps of mazuku and fractures in Goma, describe the volcanic eruption history with hazard assessment and mitigation implications, and consider social realities useful for an integrated risk management strategy.

Non-Volcanic release of CO2 in Italy: quantification, conceptual models and gas hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Chiodini, G.; Cardellini, C.; Caliro, S.; Avino, R.

2011-12-01

Central and South Italy are characterized by the presence of many reservoirs naturally recharged by CO2 of deep provenance. In the western sector, the reservoirs feed hundreds of gas emissions at the surface. Many studies in the last years were devoted to (i) elaborating a map of CO2 Earth degassing of the region; (ii) to asses the gas hazard; (iii) to develop methods suitable for the measurement of the gas fluxes from different types of emissions; (iv) to elaborate the conceptual model of Earth degassing and its relation with the seismic activity of the region and (v) to develop physical numerical models of CO2 air dispersion. The main results obtained are: 1) A general, regional map of CO2 Earth degassing in Central Italy has been elaborated. The total flux of CO2 in the area has been estimated in ~ 10 Mt/a which are released to the atmosphere trough numerous dangerous gas emissions or by degassing spring waters (~ 10 % of the CO2 globally estimated to be released by the Earth trough volcanic activity). 2) An on line, open access, georeferenced database of the main CO2 emissions (~ 250) was settled up (http://googas.ov.ingv.it). CO2 flux > 100 t/d characterise 14% of the degassing sites while CO2 fluxes from 100 t/d to 10 t/d have been estimated for about 35% of the gas emissions. 3) The sites of the gas emissions are not suitable for life: the gas causes many accidents to animals and people. In order to mitigate the gas hazard a specific model of CO2 air dispersion has been developed and applied to the main degassing sites. A relevant application regarded Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Apennines, which is the largest natural emission of low temperature CO2 rich gases, from non-volcanic environment, ever measured in the Earth (˜2000 t/d). Under low wind conditions, the gas flows along a narrow natural channel producing a persistent gas river which has killed over a period of time many people and animals. The application of the physical numerical model allowed us to

eVADE: Volcanic Ash Detection Raman LIDAR, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

Volcanic Ash Detection Using Raman LIDAR: "VADER", Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

Haz-Map: Information on Hazardous Chemicals and Occupational Diseases

Science.gov (United States)

... Help Glossary References About Us Search Hazardous Agents Occupational Diseases High Risk Jobs Non-Occupational Activities Industries Job ... Findings Haz-Map®: Information on Hazardous Chemicals and Occupational Diseases by Jay A. Brown, M.D., M.P. ...

Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai'i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, D.A.

2004-01-01

Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai'i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Huala??lai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults ( n =462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Huala??lai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an 'unrealistic optimism bias' and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as

Assessment of volcanic and geothermal activity in the Pasco Basin and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, J.D.

1980-01-01

Event network analyses indicate the most likely volcanic hazard to the Pasco Basin is influx of ash fall tephra from source areas in the Cascade Range. Less likely, but still notable, is the possibility of water flooding the Pasco Basin as a result of volcanic damming of one or more major drainages in the region. The least probable hazards include (1) influx of ash flows from eruptions in the Cascade Range or the Basin and Range Province, (2) renewed flood basalt volcanism, and (3) breaching of a repository by a dike or fissure. It is highly unlikely that volcanism will pose a direct threat to the integrity of any nuclear waste repositories in the Pasco Basin. Low-temperature geothermal water (20 degrees--90 degrees C) is present at random locations within the Pasco Basin and vicinity. This water may represent a potential resource only for direct heating purposes. Available data indicate no geothermal reservoirs with temperatures high enough and depths shallow enough for economical production of electricity are present within the Pasco Basin. 70 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

2013-12-01

Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrads, T.J.

1998-01-01

This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

78 FR 24439 - Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard Reevaluation

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-25

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2013-0073] Compliance With Information Request, Flooding Hazard... Estimating Flooding Hazards due to Dam Failure.'' This draft JLD-ISG provides guidance acceptable to the NRC staff for reevaluating flooding hazards due to dam failure for the purpose of responding to enclosure 2...

Deriving spatial patterns from a novel database of volcanic rock geochemistry in the Virunga Volcanic Province, East African Rift

Science.gov (United States)

Poppe, Sam; Barette, Florian; Smets, Benoît; Benbakkar, Mhammed; Kervyn, Matthieu

2016-04-01

eruption of 1957 belongs to these primitive clusters and is the only known to have erupted outside the current rift valley in historical times. We thus infer there is a distributed hazard of vent opening susceptibility additional to the susceptibility associated with the main Virunga edifices. This study suggests that the statistical analysis of such geochemical database may help to understand complex volcanic plumbing systems and the spatial distribution of volcanic hazards in active and poorly known volcanic areas such as the Virunga Volcanic Province.

Linking emerging hazardous waste technologies with the electronic information era

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, B.E.; Suk, W.A. [National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Blackard, B. [Technology Planning and Management Corp., Durham, NC (United States)

1996-12-31

In looking to the future and the development of new approaches or strategies for managing hazardous waste, it is important to understand and appreciate the factors that have contributed to current successful approaches. In the United States, several events in the last two decades have had a significant impact in advancing remediation of hazardous waste, including environmental legislation, legislative reforms on licensing federally funded research, and electronic transfer of information. Similar activities also have occurred on a global level. While each of these areas is significant, the electronic exchange of information has no national boundaries and has become an active part of major hazardous waste research and management programs. It is important to realize that any group or society that is developing a comprehensive program in hazardous waste management should be able to take advantage of this advanced approach in the dissemination of information. 6 refs., 1 tab.

Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

Science.gov (United States)

Paris, Raphaël

2015-10-28

Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

1995-07-01

In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2013-12-01

This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

Health information technologies : From hazardous to the dark side

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saunders, C.; Rutkowski, Anne; Pluyter, J.R.; Spanjers, R.

This article explores the effects of health information technologies (HIT) in operating rooms (ORs). When functioning well, HIT are a boon to mankind. However, HIT in the OR also create hazards for patients for a number of interrelated reasons. We introduce 5 interrelated components of hazard

The Origin of Widespread Long-lived Volcanism Across the Galapagos Volcanic Province

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, J. M.; Stoffers, P.; Wijbrans, J. R.; Worthington, T. J.

2005-12-01

40Ar/39Ar ages for rocks dredged (SO144 PAGANINI expedition) and drilled (DSDP) from the Galapagos Volcanic Province (Cocos, Carnegie, Coiba and Malpelo aseismic ridges and associated seamounts) show evidence of 1) increasing age with distance from the Galapagos Archipelago, 2) long-lived episodic volcanism at many locations, and 3) broad overlapping regions of coeval volcanism. The widespread nature of synchronous volcanism across the Galapagos Volcanic Province (GVP) suggests a correspondingly large Galapagos hotspot melting anomaly (O'Connor et al., 2004). Development of the GVP via Cocos and Nazca plate migration and divergence over this broad melting anomaly would explain continued multiple phases of volcanism over millions of years following the initial onset of hotspot volcanism. The question arising from these observations is whether long-lived GVP episodic volcanism is equivalent to `rejuvenescent' or a `post-erosional' phase of volcanism that occurs hundreds of thousands or million years after the main shield-building phase documented on many mid-plate seamount chains, most notably along the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain? Thus, investigating the process responsible for long-lived episodic GVP volcanism provides the opportunity to evaluate this little understood process of rejuvenation in a physical setting very different to the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain (i.e. on/near spreading axis versus mid-plate). We consider here timing and geochemical information to test the various geodynamic models proposed to explain the origin of GVP hotspot volcanism, especially the possibility of rejuvenated phases that erupt long after initial shield-building.

Connecting Hazard Analysts and Risk Managers to Sensor Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Hosford, Steven; Douglas, John; Serrano, Jean-Jacques; Coraboeuf, Damien; Comte, Jérémie

2008-06-11

Hazard analysts and risk managers of natural perils, such as earthquakes, landslides and floods, need to access information from sensor networks surveying their regions of interest. However, currently information about these networks is difficult to obtain and is available in varying formats, thereby restricting accesses and consequently possibly leading to decision-making based on limited information. As a response to this issue, state-of-the-art interoperable catalogues are being currently developed within the framework of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) workplan. This article provides an overview of the prototype catalogue that was developed to improve access to information about the sensor networks surveying geological hazards (geohazards), such as earthquakes, landslides and volcanoes.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-09-11

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

,

2010-01-01

The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption.

Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

2015-12-01

Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

Volcanic Characteristics of Kueishantao in Northeast Taiwan and Their Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Lung Chiu

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Kueishantao (KST is a small offshore volcanic island located at the southernmost part of the Okinawa Trough. In this study, we conducted a detailed mapping incorporating the new high resolution LiDAR DTM laser scanning device to accurately construct a volcanic sequence. A new 1/5000 geological map was established. One primary volcanic cone, composed of layers of both lava flows and pyroclastic rocks constituted the major edifice of KST. The other minor volcanic cone, which consists of volcanic lapillis and blocks, is seated to the east of the main cone. The escarped and nearly straight coast in the southern part of the KST indicates that the volcano suffered a large post-volcanic edifice collapse erasing nearly one half of the volume of both volcanic cones. The increase in the abundance of the xenoliths of sedimentary rocks from the lower to the upper part of the volcanic sequence indicates that the formation of volcanic rocks of the KST involved an intensification of crustal contamination. The possibility of volcanic eruption can not be excluded in the future based on the present thermolu¬minescene age data of 7 ka. The associated eruptive ash fall and tsunami induced by the further collapse of the KST volcanic edifice might have great influence to the adjacent inland. Thus, long-term monitoring of volcanic activities around KST should be required for future hazard assessments.

A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Tierz

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Volcanic water-sediment flows, commonly known as lahars, can often pose a higher threat to population and infrastructure than primary volcanic hazardous processes such as tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs. Lahars are volcaniclastic flows of water, volcanic debris and entrained sediments that can travel long distances from their source, causing severe damage by impact and burial. Lahars are frequently triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall occurring after explosive eruptions, and their occurrence depends on numerous factors including the spatio-temporal rainfall characteristics, the spatial distribution and hydraulic properties of the tephra deposit, and the pre- and post-eruption topography. Modeling (and forecasting such a complex system requires the quantification of aleatory variability in the lahar triggering and propagation. To fulfill this goal, we develop a novel framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment, based on coupling a versatile probabilistic model for lahar triggering (a Bayesian Belief Network: Multihaz with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow. Multihaz allows us to estimate the probability of lahars of different volumes occurring by merging varied information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and, crucially, probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and PDCs. LaharFlow propagates the aleatory variability modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars. We apply our framework to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy because: (1 the volcano is strongly lahar-prone based on its previous activity, (2 there are many possible source areas for lahars, and (3 there is high density of population nearby. Our results indicate that the size of the eruption preceding the lahar occurrence and the spatial distribution of tephra accumulation have a paramount role in the lahar

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2013-01-01

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists

Using an information system to meet Hazardous Waste Management needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, J.J. Jr.; Howe, R.E.; Townsend, S.L.; Maloy, D.T.; Kochhar, R.K.

1995-02-01

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a large quantity RCRA hazardous waste generator. LLNL also generates low level and transuranic radioactive waste that is managed in accordance with the Department of Energy (DOE) orders. The mixed low level and mixed transuranic waste generated must be managed to comply with both RCRA regulations and DOE orders. LLNL's hazardous and radioactive waste generation is comprised of 900 generators who contribute to nearly two hundred waste streams. LLNL has a permitted EPA treatment and storage (TSD) facility for handling RCRA hazardous waste that is operated by LLNL's Hazardous Waste Management (HWM) division. In HWM we have developed an information system, the Total Waste Management System (TWMS), to replace an inadequate ''cradle to grave'' tracking of all the waste types described above. The goals of this system are to facilitate the safe handling and storage of these hazardous wastes, provide compliance with the regulations and serve as an informational tool to help HWM manage and dispose of these wastes in a cost effective manner

Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

2016-04-12

Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

Optimal likelihood-based matching of volcanic sources and deposits in the Auckland Volcanic Field

Science.gov (United States)

Kawabata, Emily; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Wang, Ting

2016-09-01

In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracted from the Auckland Volcanic Field, underlying the 1.4 million-population city of Auckland. We examine here the problem of matching these dated deposits to the volcanoes that produced them. The simplest issue is separation in time, which is handled by simulating prior volcano age sequences from direct dates where known, thinned via ordering constraints between the volcanoes. The subproblem of varying deposition thicknesses (which may be zero) at five locations of known distance and azimuth is quantified using a statistical attenuation model for the volcanic ash thickness. These elements are combined with other constraints, from widespread fingerprinted ash layers that separate eruptions and time-censoring of the records, into a likelihood that was optimized via linear programming. A second linear program was used to optimize over the Monte-Carlo simulated set of prior age profiles to determine the best overall match and consequent volcano age assignments. Considering all 20 matches, and the multiple factors of age, direction, and size/distance simultaneously, results in some non-intuitive assignments which would not be produced by single factor analyses. Compared with earlier work, the results provide better age control on a number of smaller centers such as Little Rangitoto, Otuataua, Taylors Hill, Wiri Mountain, Green Hill, Otara Hill, Hampton Park and Mt Cambria. Spatio-temporal hazard estimates are updated on the basis of the new ordering, which suggest that the scale of the 'flare-up' around 30 ka, while still highly significant, was less than previously thought.

Local and remote infrasound from explosive volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, R. S.; Fee, D.; LE Pichon, A.

2014-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large volumes of ash into heavily travelled air corridors and thus pose a significant societal and economic hazard. In remote volcanic regions, satellite data are sometimes the only technology available to observe volcanic eruptions and constrain ash-release parameters for aviation safety. Infrasound (acoustic waves ~0.01-20 Hz) data fill this critical observational gap, providing ground-based data for remote volcanic eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most powerful sources of infrasound observed on earth, with recordings routinely made at ranges of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Advances in infrasound technology and the efficient propagation of infrasound in the atmosphere therefore greatly enhance our ability to monitor volcanoes in remote regions such as the North Pacific Ocean. Infrasound data can be exploited to detect, locate, and provide detailed chronologies of the timing of explosive volcanic eruptions for use in ash transport and dispersal models. We highlight results from case studies of multiple eruptions recorded by the International Monitoring System and dedicated regional infrasound networks (2008 Kasatochi, Alaska, USA; 2008 Okmok, Alaska, USA; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kuriles, Russian Federation; 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Icleand) and show how infrasound is currently used in volcano monitoring. We also present progress towards characterizing and modeling the variability in source mechanisms of infrasound from explosive eruptions using dedicated local infrasound field deployments at volcanoes Karymsky, Russian Federation and Sakurajima, Japan.

Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

2017-04-01

This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Scollo

2009-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV. The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii running models of tephra dispersal, iii plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

procedure, each household was chosen randomly and entirely by chance with the same probability of being chosen at any stage during the sampling process. To facilitate our interpretation, all results were spatially analyzed using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Our results indicate that the community of Motozintla is higly exposed to floods, landslides and earthquakes and to a lesser extent to the impact of a volcanic eruption. The locality has a high level of structural vulnerability to the main identified hazards (floods and landslides). About 70% of the families has a daily income below 11 USD. Approximately 66% of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan. Another major observation is that the community organization for disaster prevention is practically nonexistent. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support decision makers in Mexico, and particularly from the sate of Chiapas, in the development of an integrated comprenhensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program in this region.

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

1998-01-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul D.; Stewart, Iain

2016-07-01

This paper presents the findings from a study aimed at understanding whether video games (or serious games) can be effective in enhancing volcanic hazard education and communication. Using the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, we have developed a video game - St. Vincent's Volcano - for use in existing volcano education and outreach sessions. Its twin aims are to improve residents' knowledge of potential future eruptive hazards (ash fall, pyroclastic flows and lahars) and to integrate traditional methods of education in a more interactive manner. Here, we discuss the process of game development including concept design through to the final implementation on St. Vincent. Preliminary results obtained from the final implementation (through pre- and post-test knowledge quizzes) for both student and adult participants provide indications that a video game of this style may be effective in improving a learner's knowledge. Both groups of participants demonstrated a post-test increase in their knowledge quiz score of 9.3 % for adults and 8.3 % for students and, when plotted as learning gains (Hake, 1998), show similar overall improvements (0.11 for adults and 0.09 for students). These preliminary findings may provide a sound foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. This paper also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study.

Geoethics implications in volcanic hazards in Argentina: 24 years of uninterrupted ash-fall

Science.gov (United States)

Rovere, Elizabeth I.; Violante, Roberto A.; Uber, Silvia M.; Vázquez Herrera, Marcelo

2016-04-01

The impact of falling ash reaches all human activities, has effects on human and animal health and is subject to climate and ecosystem of the affected regions. From 1991 until 2015 (24 years), more than 5 eruptions with VEI ≥ 4 in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes occurred; pyroclastic, dust and volcanic ash were deposited (mostly) in Argentina. A recurring situation during eruptions of Hudson (1991), Chaiten (2008), Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) and Calbuco (2015) volcanoes was the accumulation, storage and dump of volcanic ash in depressed areas, beaches, lakes, ditches, storm drains, areas of landfills and transfer stations. The issues that this practice has taken are varied: pollution of aquifers, changes in geomorphology and water courses, usually in "inconspicuous" zones, often in places where there are precarious population or high poverty settlements. The consequences are not immediate but the effects in the mid and long term bring serious drawbacks. On the contrary, a good example of intelligent management of the volcanic impact occurred many years before, during the eruption of Descabezado Grande (Quizapu) volcano in 1932. In that case, and as an example, the city of Trenque Lauquen, located nearly 770 km east of the volcano, decided a communitarian task of collection and burial of the ashfall in small areas, this was a very successful performance. The Quizapu ash plumes transported by the Westerlies (winds) covered with a blanket of volcanic ash the city, ashfall also reached the capital cities of Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Uruguay (Montevideo). Also, the bagging process of volcanic ash with reinforced plastics was an example of Good Practice in the management of the emergency. This allowed the entire affected community to take advantage of this "mineral resource" and contributes to achieving collective and participatory work leading to commercialization and sustainability of these products availed as fertilizers, granular base for ceramics and

A drill-hole geodatabase as a tool to investigate geological hazard in Napoli Urban Area

Science.gov (United States)

Albericoa, I.; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.

2003-04-01

Geological investigations in urban areas are complicated by the absence of good outcrops and field exposures, as a result of the density of civil buildings and railway and road network. On the other side, in urban areas geological investigation represents a basic tool to decisional support for the management of present private buildings and public works and for the planning of new ones. This is much more true in urban areas very exposed to geological hazard (volcanic, hydrogeological, seismic) where the high exposed value greatly rises the risk. The methodology to deal with the geological hazard in urban areas here presented is the reconstruction of buried geological formations deduced by drill-holes stratigraphy.The test area is represented by the whole municipality of Napoli city, that proves very apt to the investigation of the hazard in urban areas since it stands over an active volcanic area, comprised between the Campi Flegrei volcanic field and the Somma-Vesuvio district, that both gave explosive and effusive activity through the last centuries. Besides, the extension of the main part of the city constrained between the coastline and the belt of volcanic hills together with the presence of loose material due to pyroclastic activity makes the alluvional events an other hazardous phenomenon for the city. The performed up datable drill-holes geodata-base for the city of Napoli at present contains the record of about 800 holes stratigraphy, collected through the main public and private bodies, reflecting the drill-holes surveys made along the last 50 years before constructing the main railways, roads and aqueduct network. Drill-holes data have been interpreted and can now be read under various viewpoints (geological, lithological, volcanological); the present work presents the first results of the geological hazard investigation. The investigation of buried stratigraphy in the eastern area allows to identify the presence of pyroclastic flow deposits from Somma

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

Science.gov (United States)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

2016-12-01

The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

Hazardous materials management using a Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kjeldgaard, E.; Fish, J.; Campbell, D.; Freshour, N.; Hammond, B.; Bray, O. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hollingsworth, M. [Ogden Environmental & Energy Services Co., Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-03-01

Hazardous materials management includes interactions among materials, personnel, facilities, hazards, and processes of various groups within a DOE site`s environmental, safety & health (ES&H) and line organizations. Although each group is charged with addressing a particular aspect of these properties and interactions, the information it requires must be gathered into a coherent set of common data for accurate and consistent hazardous material management and regulatory reporting. It is these common data requirements which the Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS) is designed to satisfy. CGTIS collects information at the point at which a process begins or a material enters a facility, and maintains that information, for hazards management and regulatory reporting, throughout the entire life-cycle by providing direct on-line links to a site`s multitude of data bases to bring information together into one common data model.

Hazardous materials management using a Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjeldgaard, E.; Fish, J.; Campbell, D.; Freshour, N.; Hammond, B.; Bray, O.; Hollingsworth, M.

1995-03-01

Hazardous materials management includes interactions among materials, personnel, facilities, hazards, and processes of various groups within a DOE site's environmental, safety ampersand health (ES ampersand H) and line organizations. Although each group is charged with addressing a particular aspect of these properties and interactions, the information it requires must be gathered into a coherent set of common data for accurate and consistent hazardous material management and regulatory reporting. It is these common data requirements which the Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS) is designed to satisfy. CGTIS collects information at the point at which a process begins or a material enters a facility, and maintains that information, for hazards management and regulatory reporting, throughout the entire life-cycle by providing direct on-line links to a site's multitude of data bases to bring information together into one common data model

Real-time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

Science.gov (United States)

Krotkov, N. A.; Hughes, E. J.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Seftor, C. J.; Brentzel, K. W.; Hassinen, S.; Heinrichs, T. A.; Schneider, D. J.; Hoffman, R.; Myers, T.; Flynn, L. E.; Niu, J.; Theys, N.; Brenot, H. H.

2016-12-01

We will discuss progress of the NASA ASP project, which promotes the use of satellite volcanic SO2 (VSO2) and Ash (VA) data, and forecasting tools that enhance VA Decision Support Systems (DSS) at the VA Advisory Centers (VAACs) for prompt aviation warnings. The goals are: (1) transition NASA algorithms to NOAA for global NRT processing and integration into DSS at Washington VAAC for operational users and public dissemination; (2) Utilize Direct Broadcast capability of the Aura and SNPP satellites to process Direct Readout (DR) data at two high latitude locations in Finland and Fairbanks, Alaska to enhance VA DSS in Europe and at USGS's Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) and Alaska-VAAC; (3) Improve global Eulerian model-based VA/VSO2 forecasting and risk/cost assessments with Metron Aviation. Our global NRT OMI and OMPS data have been fully integrated into European Support to Aviation Control Service and NOAA operational web sites. We are transitioning OMPS processing to our partners at NOAA/NESDIS to integrate into operational processing environment. NASA's Suomi NPP Ozone Science Team, in conjunction with GSFC's Direct Readout Laboratory (DRL), have implemented Version 2 of the OMPS real-time DR processing package to generate VSO2 and VA products at the Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA) and the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). The system provides real-time coverage over some of the most congested airspace and over many of the most active volcanoes in the world. The OMPS real time capability is now publicly available via DRL's IPOPP package. We use satellite observations to define volcanic source term estimates in the NASA GOES-5 model, which was updated allowing for the simulation of VA and VSO2 clouds. Column SO2 observations from SNPP/OMPS provide an initial estimate of the total cloud SO2 mass, and are used with backward transport analysis to make an initial cloud height estimate. Later VSO2 observations are used to "nudge" the SO2 mass

Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies: 1992--1993 annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

The annual report of the Center for Volcanic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, reprints and a Master of Science thesis that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1992 and February 1, 1994. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that have direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics include: (1) polygenetic/polycyclic volcanism in Crater Flat, Nevada; (2) the role of the mantle during crustal extension; (3) the detailed geology of Crater Flat, Nevada; (4) Pliocene volcanoes in the Reveille Range, south-central Nevada; (5) estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruptions. This topic is being studied by Dr. C.H. Ho at UNLV. The report contains copies of these individual papers as they were presented in various conference proceedings

Natural hazards science strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2012-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, Natalia I.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca H.; Blake, Daniel M.; Davies, Alistair J.; Hayes, Josh L.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas M.; Castelino, Renella; Kennedy, Ben M.; Muspratt, Scott; Woods, Richard

2017-04-01

What happens when a city has a volcanic eruption within its boundaries? To explore the consequences of this rare but potentially catastrophic combination, we develop a detailed multi-hazard scenario of an Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) eruption; the AVF underlies New Zealand's largest city, Auckland. We start with an existing AVF unrest scenario sequence and develop it through a month-long hypothetical eruption based on geologic investigations of the AVF and historic similar eruptions from around the world. We devise a credible eruption sequence and include all volcanic hazards that could occur in an AVF eruption. In consultation with Civil Defence and Emergency Management staff, we create a series of evacuation maps for before, during, and after the hypothetical eruption sequence. Our result is a versatile scenario with many possible applications, developed further in companion papers that explore eruption consequences on transportation and water networks. However, here we illustrate one application: evaluating the consequences of an eruption on electricity service provision. In a collaborative approach between scientists and electricity service providers, we evaluate the impact of the hypothetical eruption to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. We then evaluate how the impacted network functions, accounting for network adaptations (e.g., diverting power away from evacuated areas), site access, and restoration factors. We present a series of regional maps showing areas with full service, rolling outages, and no power as a result of the eruption. This illustrative example demonstrates how a detailed scenario can be used to further understand the ramifications of urban volcanism on local and regional populations, and highlights the importance of looking beyond damage to explore the consequences of volcanism.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

Science.gov (United States)

Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

LAV@HAZARD: a Web-GIS Framework for Real-Time Forecasting of Lava Flow Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.

2014-12-01

Crucial to lava flow hazard assessment is the development of tools for real-time prediction of flow paths, flow advance rates, and final flow lengths. Accurate prediction of flow paths and advance rates requires not only rapid assessment of eruption conditions (especially effusion rate) but also improved models of lava flow emplacement. Here we present the LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, which combines spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations for real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards. By using satellite-derived discharge rates to drive a lava flow emplacement model, LAV@HAZARD allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We take advantage of the flexibility of the HOTSAT thermal monitoring system to process satellite images coming from sensors with different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions. HOTSAT was designed to ingest infrared satellite data acquired by the MODIS and SEVIRI sensors to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux and discharge rate. We use LAV@HAZARD to merge this output with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths and to update, in a timely manner, flow simulations. Thus, any significant changes in lava discharge rate are included in the predictions. A significant benefit in terms of computational speed was obtained thanks to the parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs). All this useful information has been gathered into the LAV@HAZARD platform which, due to the high degree of interactivity, allows generation of easily readable maps and a fast way to explore alternative scenarios. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this framework using a variety of case studies pertaining to Mt Etna, Sicily. Although this study was conducted on Mt Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas around the world.

Geologic aspects of seismic hazards assessment at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, southeastern Idaho

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.P.; Hackett, W.R.; Rodgers, D.W.

1989-01-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), located on the northwestern side of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), lies in an area influenced by two distinct geologic provinces. The ESRP province is a northeast-trending zone of late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism which transects the northwest-trending, block-fault mountain ranges of the Basin and Range province. An understanding of the interaction of these two provinces is important for realistic geologic hazards assessment. Of particular importance for seismic hazards analysis is the relationship of volcanic rift zones on the ESRP to basin-and-range faults north of the plain. The Arco Rift Zone, a 20-km-long belt of deformation and volcanism on the plain just west of the INEL, is colinear with the basin-and-range Lost River fault. Recent field studies have demonstrated that Arco Rift Zone deformation is typical of that induced by dike injection in other volcanic rift zones. The deformation is characterized by a predominance of dilational fissuring with less extensive development of faults and grabens. Cumulative vertical displacements over the past 0.6 Ma are an order of magnitude lower than those associated with the Arco Segment of the Lost River fault to the northwest. The evidence suggests that the northeast-directed extension that produces the block fault mountains of the Basin and Range is expressed by dike injection and volcanic rift zone development in the ESRP. Seismicity associated with dike injection during rift zone development is typically of low magnitude and would represent only minor hazard compared to that associated with the block faulting. Since the ESRP responds to extension in a manner distinct from basin-and-range faulting, it is not appropriate to consider the volcanic rift zones as extensions of basin-and-range faults for seismic hazard analysis

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

J-SHIS - an integrated system for knowing seismic hazard information in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Azuma, H.; Fujiwara, H.; Kawai, S.; Hao, K. X.; Morikawa, N.

2015-12-01

An integrated system of Japan seismic hazard information station (J-SHIS) was established in 2005 for issuing and exchanging information of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan that are based on seismic hazard assessment (SHA). A simplified app, also named J-SHIS, for smartphones is popularly used in Japan based on the integrated system of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/map/?lang=en. "Smartphone tells hazard" is realized on a cellphone, a tablet and/or a PC. At a given spot, the comprehensive information of SHA map can be easily obtained as below: 1) A SHA probability at given intensity (JMA=5-, 5+, 6-, 6+) within 30 years. 2) A site amplification factor varies within 0.5 ~ 3.0 and expectation is 1 based on surface geology map information. 3) A depth of seismic basement down to ~3,000m based on deeper borehole and geological structure. 4) Scenario earthquake maps: By choosing an active fault, one got the average case for different parameters of the modeling. Then choose a case, you got the shaking map of intensity with color scale. "Seismic Hazard Karte tells more hazard" is another app based on website of http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/labs/karte/. (1) For every mesh of 250m x 250m, professional service SHA information is provided over national-world. (2) With five ranks for eight items, comprehensive SHA information could be delivered. (3) Site amplification factor with an average index is given. (4) Deeper geologic structure modeling is provided with borehole profiling. (5) A SHA probability is assessed within 30 and/or 50 years for the given site. (6) Seismic Hazard curves are given for earthquake sources from inland active fault, subduction zone, undetermined and their summarization. (7) The JMA seismic intensities are assessed in long-term averaged periods of 500-years to ~100,000 years. The app of J-SHIS can be downloaded freely from http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp/app-jshis.

The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

Science.gov (United States)

Gottsmann, J.

2012-04-01

Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

2016-01-01

To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

Managing uncertainty: Lessons from volcanic lava disruption of transportation infrastructure in Puna, Hawaii.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

A recent lava flow in Puna, Hawaii, threatened to close one of the major highways serving the region. This article provides background information on the volcanic hazards and describes events, responses, and challenges associated with managing a complex, long-duration disaster. In addition to the need to better understand geologic hazards and threats, there is a need for timely information and effective response and recovery of transportation infrastructure. This requires coordination and sharing of information between scientists, emergency managers, transportation planners, government agencies, and community organizations. Transportation assets play a critical role in terms of problem definition, response, and recovery. The challenges with managing a long-duration event include: (1) determining when a sufficient threat level exists to close roads; (2) identifying transportation alternatives; (3) assessing impacts on communities including the direct threats to homes, businesses, structures, and infrastructure; (4) engaging communities in planning and deliberation of choices and alternatives; and (5) managing uncertainties and different reactions to hazards, threats, and risks. The transportation planning process provides a pathway for addressing initial community concerns. Focusing not just on roadways but also on travel behavior before, during, and after disasters is a vital aspect of building resilience. The experience in Puna with the volcano crisis is relevant to other communities seeking to adapt and manage long-term threats such as climate change, sea level risk, and other long-duration events.

Rapid laccolith intrusion driven by explosive volcanic eruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro, Jonathan M; Cordonnier, Benoit; Schipper, C Ian; Tuffen, Hugh; Baumann, Tobias S; Feisel, Yves

2016-11-23

Magmatic intrusions and volcanic eruptions are intimately related phenomena. Shallow magma intrusion builds subsurface reservoirs that are drained by volcanic eruptions. Thus, the long-held view is that intrusions must precede and feed eruptions. Here we show that explosive eruptions can also cause magma intrusion. We provide an account of a rapidly emplaced laccolith during the 2011 rhyolite eruption of Cordón Caulle, Chile. Remote sensing indicates that an intrusion began after eruption onset and caused severe (>200 m) uplift over 1 month. Digital terrain models resolve a laccolith-shaped body ∼0.8 km 3 . Deformation and conduit flow models indicate laccolith depths of only ∼20-200 m and overpressures (∼1-10 MPa) that likely stemmed from conduit blockage. Our results show that explosive eruptions may rapidly force significant quantities of magma in the crust to build laccoliths. These iconic intrusions can thus be interpreted as eruptive features that pose unique and previously unrecognized volcanic hazards.

Trace Element Geochemistry of Basaltic Tephra in Maar Cores; Implications for Centre Correlation, Field Evolution, and Mantle Source Characteristics of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, J. L.; Leonard, G.; Timm, C.; Wilson, C. J. N.; Neil, H.; Millet, M. A.

2014-12-01

Establishing volcanic hazard and risk management strategies hinges on a detailed understanding of the type, timing and tephra dispersal of past eruptions. In order to unravel the pyroclastic eruption history of a volcanic field, genetic links between the deposits and eruption source centre need to be established. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; New Zealand) has been active for ca. 200 kyr and comprises ca. 53 individual centres covering an area of ca. 360km2. These centres show a range of sizes and eruptive styles from maar craters and tuff rings, to scoria cones and lava flows consistent with both phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions. Superimposition of the metropolitan area of Auckland (ca. 1.4 million inhabitants) on the volcanic field makes it critically important to assess the characteristics of the volcanic activity, on which to base assessment and management of the consequent hazards. Here we present a geochemical approach for correlating tephra deposits to their source centres. To acquire the most complete stratigraphic record of pyroclastic events, maar crater cores from different locations, covering various depths and thus ages across the field were selected. Magnetic susceptibility and x-ray density scanning of the cores was used to identify the basaltic tephra horizons, which were sampled and in-situ analysis of individual shards undertaken for major and trace elements using EPMA and LA-ICP-MS techniques, respectively. Our results show that tephra shard trace element ratios are comparable and complementary to the AVF whole rock database. The use of specific trace element ratios (e.g. Gd/Yb vs. Zr/Yb) allows us to fingerprint and cross correlate tephra horizons between cores and, when coupled with newly acquired 40Ar-39Ar age dating and eruption size estimates, correlate horizons to their source centres. This integrated style of study can provide valuable information to help volcanic hazard management and forecasting, and mitigation of related risks.

Imaging volcanic CO2 and SO2

Science.gov (United States)

Gabrieli, A.; Wright, R.; Lucey, P. G.; Porter, J. N.

2017-12-01

Detecting and quantifying volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions is of relevance to volcanologists. Changes in the amount and composition of gases that volcanoes emit are related to subsurface magma movements and the probability of eruptions. Volcanic gases and related acidic aerosols are also an important atmospheric pollution source that create environmental health hazards for people, animals, plants, and infrastructures. For these reasons, it is important to measure emissions from volcanic plumes during both day and night. We present image measurements of the volcanic plume at Kīlauea volcano, HI, and flux derivation, using a newly developed 8-14 um hyperspectral imaging spectrometer, the Thermal Hyperspectral Imager (THI). THI is capable of acquiring images of the scene it views from which spectra can be derived from each pixel. Each spectrum contains 50 wavelength samples between 8 and 14 um where CO2 and SO2 volcanic gases have diagnostic absorption/emission features respectively at 8.6 and 14 um. Plume radiance measurements were carried out both during the day and the night by using both the lava lake in the Halema'uma'u crater as a hot source and the sky as a cold background to detect respectively the spectral signatures of volcanic CO2 and SO2 gases. CO2 and SO2 path-concentrations were then obtained from the spectral radiance measurements using a new Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)-based inversion algorithm, which was developed as part of this project. Volcanic emission fluxes were determined by combining the path measurements with wind observations, derived directly from the images. Several hours long time-series of volcanic emission fluxes will be presented and the SO2 conversion rates into aerosols will be discussed. The new imaging and inversion technique, discussed here, are novel allowing for continuous CO2 and SO2 plume mapping during both day and night.

Preliminary review and summary of the potential for tectonic, seismic, and volcanic activity at the Nevada Test Site defense waste disposal site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metcalf, L.A.

1983-03-01

A change from compressional to extensional tectonics, which occurred about 17 m.y. ago, marks the emergence of the present tectonic regime in the southern Great Basin. Crustal extension is continuing at the present time, oriented in a NW-SE direction in the NTS region. Concurrently with the onset of crustal extension a system of NW- and NE-trending shear zones developed, along which mutual offset has occurred. Present seismic and tectonic activity in the NTS region is concentrated along the intersections of the shear zones and in areas of deep basin formation. Natural historic seismicity of the NTS region has been low to moderate. Seismic hazard assessments suggest a maximum magnitude 6-7 earthquake, associated with a maximum peak acceleration of 0.7 to 0.9 g, is probable for the NTS. A return period of 12,700 to 15,000 y for the maximum peak acceleration indicates a relatively low seismic hazard. Silicic volcanism in the NTS region was active from 16 to 6 m.y. ago, followed by a transition to basaltic volcanism. The tectonic settings most favorable for Quaternary basaltic activity are areas of young basin-range extension, caldera ring fracture zones, and intersections of conjugate shear zones. Probability calculations for the Yucca Mountain waste repository result in a volcanic disruption hazard of 10 - 8 to 10 - 9 /y. This value is extremely low and is probably representative of the hazard at Frenchman Flat. However, due to its tectonic setting, Frenchman Flat may be an area conducive to future basaltic volcanism; further investigation is needed to properly assess volcanic hazard

Resolving the architecture of monogenetic feeder systems from exposures of extinct volcanic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Muirhead, J.; Van Eaton, A. R.; Re, G.; White, J. D. L.; Ort, M. H.

2016-12-01

Monogenetic volcanic fields pose hazards to a number of major cities worldwide. During an eruption, the evolution of the intrusive feeder network modulates eruption behavior and location, as well as the warning signs of impending activity. However, historical examples of monogenetic eruptions are rare, particularly those monitored with the modern tools required to constrain the geometry and interconnectivity of subsurface intrusive feeders (e.g., InSAR, GPS). Geologic exposures in extinct fields around the Colorado Plateau provide clues to the geometry of shallow intrusions (<1000 m depth) that feed monogenetic volcanoes. We present field- and satellite-based observations of exposed intrusions in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field (Arizona), which reveal that many eruptions were fed by interconnected dike-sill systems. Results from the Hopi Buttes show that volcanic cone alignment studies are biased to the identification of dike intrusions, and thereby neglect the important contributions of sills to shallow feeder systems. For example, estimates of intruded volumes in fields exhumed by uplift and erosion in Utah and Arizona show that sills make up 30 - 92% of the shallow intruded volume within 1000 m of the paleosurface. By transporting magma toward and away from eruptive conduits, these sills likely played a role in modulating eruption styles (e.g., explosive vs effusive) and controlling lateral vent migrations. Sill transitions at Hopi Buttes would have produced detectable surface uplifts, and illustrate the importance of geological studies for informing interpretations of geodetic and seismological data during volcanic crises.

On a Possible Unified Scaling Law for Volcanic Eruption Durations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cannavò, Flavio; Nunnari, Giuseppe

2016-03-01

Volcanoes constitute dissipative systems with many degrees of freedom. Their eruptions are the result of complex processes that involve interacting chemical-physical systems. At present, due to the complexity of involved phenomena and to the lack of precise measurements, both analytical and numerical models are unable to simultaneously include the main processes involved in eruptions thus making forecasts of volcanic dynamics rather unreliable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of some eruption parameters, such as the duration, could be a key factor in natural hazard estimation and mitigation. Analyzing a large database with most of all the known volcanic eruptions, we have determined that the duration of eruptions seems to be described by a universal distribution which characterizes eruption duration dynamics. In particular, this paper presents a plausible global power-law distribution of durations of volcanic eruptions that holds worldwide for different volcanic environments. We also introduce a new, simple and realistic pipe model that can follow the same found empirical distribution. Since the proposed model belongs to the family of the self-organized systems it may support the hypothesis that simple mechanisms can lead naturally to the emergent complexity in volcanic behaviour.

Lidar sounding of volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Angelini, Federico; Borelli, Rodolfo; Del Franco, Mario; Murra, Daniele; Pistilli, Marco; Puiu, Adriana; Santoro, Simone

2013-10-01

Accurate knowledge of gas composition in volcanic plumes has high scientific and societal value. On the one hand, it gives information on the geophysical processes taking place inside volcanos; on the other hand, it provides alert on possible eruptions. For this reasons, it has been suggested to monitor volcanic plumes by lidar. In particular, one of the aims of the FP7 ERC project BRIDGE is the measurement of CO2 concentration in volcanic gases by differential absorption lidar. This is a very challenging task due to the harsh environment, the narrowness and weakness of the CO2 absorption lines and the difficulty to procure a suitable laser source. This paper, after a review on remote sensing of volcanic plumes, reports on the current progress of the lidar system.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

1995-02-01

Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Marrero

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

Influences on the variability of eruption sequences and style transitions in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Kereszturi, Gábor; Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; Procter, Jonathan; Agustín-Flores, Javier

2014-10-01

Monogenetic basaltic volcanism is characterised by a complex array of eruptive behaviours, reflecting spatial and temporal variability of the magmatic properties (e.g. composition, eruptive volume, magma flux) as well as environmental factors at the vent site (e.g. availability of water, country rock geology, faulting). These combine to produce changes in eruption style over brief periods (minutes to days) in many eruption episodes. Monogenetic eruptions in some volcanic fields often start with a phreatomagmatic vent-opening phase that later transforms into "dry" magmatic explosive or effusive activity, with a strong variation in the duration and importance of this first phase. Such an eruption sequence pattern occurred in 83% of the known eruption in the 0.25 My-old Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand. In this investigation, the eruptive volumes were compared with the sequences of eruption styles preserved in the pyroclastic record at each volcano of the AVF, as well as environmental influencing factors, such as distribution and thickness of water-saturated semi- to unconsolidated sediments, topographic position, distances from known fault lines. The AVF showed that there is no correlation between ejecta ring volumes and environmental influencing factors that is valid for the entire AVF. In contrary, using a set of comparisons of single volcanoes with well-known and documented sequences, resultant eruption sequences could be explained by predominant patterns of the environment in which these volcanoes were erupted. Based on the spatial variability of these environmental factors, a first-order susceptibility hazard map was constructed for the AVF that forecasts areas of largest likelihood for phreatomagmatic eruptions by overlaying topographical and shallow geological information. Combining detailed phase-by-phase breakdowns of eruptive volumes and the event sequences of the AVF, along with the new susceptibility map, more realistic eruption scenarios can be

Estimating volume of deposits associated with landslides on volcanic landscapes in the SW flank of the volcano Pico de Orizaba, Puebla-Veracruz

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Legorreta Paulín

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Landslides that occur along river systems are very common and have the potential to cause harm to human, to its infrastructure or affect their socio-economic activity. This dynamic is magnified in territories where morphological contrasts are very marked; as in the border between the mountains and subhorizontal land. This is especially true for volcanic terrains where volcanic activity can trigger voluminous landslides along stream systems by sector and flank collapse and where high seasonal rainfall on terrains covered by poorly consolidated materials produces small but hazardous landslides and debris flows that occur continually along stream systems during the volcanic repose periods. Those type of landslides can deliver volumes of hundreds and millions cubic meters that create a potentially hazardous situation for people and property down the valleys. The study of landslides in volcanic terrains through a Geographic Information System (GIS and under a geomorphological criterion, have allowed to develop a comprehensive methodology linked to the development of multi-temporal inventory, with susceptibility and volume estimation of displaced material. The aim of this research is to develop a method (protocol for landslide susceptibility and landslide volume assessment of potentially unstable volcanic landscapes in order to be helpful in mitigating landslide damages to human settlements. Pico de Orizaba volcano is the highest volcano in Mexico. The volcano has been affected by large flank collapse landslides throughout its geological history. These events have partially destroyed the cone as it happened in Bezymianny volcano and St. Elena volcano. In this volcano, the risk associated with landslide and debris flows, is increased by the growing of human settlements along the hillslopes and by the subsistence agriculture, and deforestation. This situation is favored by a volcanic calm that has lasted 147 years, approximate. These conditions create a

Gas measurements from the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment suggest possible along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Aiuppa, A.; Robidoux, P.; Tamburello, G.; Conde, V.; Galle, B.; Avard, G.; Bagnato, E.; De Moor, J. M.; Martínez, M.; Muñóz, A.

2014-12-01

Obtaining accurate estimates of the CO2 output from arc volcanism requires a precise understanding of the potential along-arc variations in volcanic gas chemistry, and ultimately of the magmatic gas signature of each individual arc segment. In an attempt to more fully constrain the magmatic gas signature of the Central America Volcanic Arc (CAVA), we present here the results of a volcanic gas survey performed during March and April 2013 at five degassing volcanoes within the Costa Rica-Nicaragua volcanic segment (CNVS). Observations of the volcanic gas plume made with a multicomponent gas analyzer system (Multi-GAS) have allowed characterization of the CO2/SO2-ratio signature of the plumes at Poás (0.30±0.06, mean ± SD), Rincón de la Vieja (27.0±15.3), and Turrialba (2.2±0.8) in Costa Rica, and at Telica (3.0±0.9) and San Cristóbal (4.2±1.3) in Nicaragua (all ratios on molar basis). By scaling these plume compositions to simultaneously measured SO2 fluxes, we estimate that the CO2 outputs at CNVS volcanoes range from low (25.5±11.0 tons/day at Poás) to moderate (918 to 1270 tons/day at Turrialba). These results add a new information to the still fragmentary volcanic CO2 output data set, and allow estimating the total CO2 output from the CNVS at 2835±1364 tons/day. Our novel results, with previously available information about gas emissions in Central America, are suggestive of distinct volcanic gas CO2/ST (= SO2 + H2S)-ratio signature for magmatic volatiles in Nicaragua (∼3) relative to Costa Rica (∼0.5-1.0). We also provide additional evidence for the earlier theory relating the CO2-richer signature of Nicaragua volcanism to increased contributions from slab-derived fluids, relative to more-MORB-like volcanism in Costa Rica. The sizeable along-arc variations in magmatic gas chemistry that the present study has suggested indicate that additional gas observations are urgently needed to more-precisely confine the volcanic CO2 from the CAVA, and from

Natural Hazards, Second Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Rouhban, Badaoui

Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

Volcanic Hazards Associated with the NE Sector of Tacaná Volcano, Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, S. R.; Saucedo, R.; Macias, J.; Arce, J.; Garcia-Palomo, A.; Mora, J.; Scolamacchia, T.

2003-12-01

Tacaná volcano, with a height of 4,030 m above sea level, straddles the southern Mexico/Guatemala border. Last active in 1986, when there was a small phreatic event with a duration of a few days, this volcano presents an impending hazard to over 250,000 people. The NE sector of the volcano reveals the violent volcanic history of Tacaná that may be indicative of a serious potential risk to the area. Its earliest pyroclastic history appears to consist of fall, flow, and surge deposits, together with lavas, that have formed megablocks within a series of old debris avalanche deposits. This sector collapse event is overlain by a sequence of pumice fall and ash flow deposits, of which the youngest, less-altered pumice fall deposit shows a minimum thickness of > 4 m, with a dispersal axis trending toward the NE. A second debris avalanche deposit, separated from the above deposits by a paleosoil, is dominated by megablocks of lava and scoriaceous dome material. The current topography around the northeastern flank of the volcano is determined by a third, and most recent debris avalanche deposit, a thick (> 20 m) sequence of six block and ash flows dated at around 16,000 years BP, each separated by 1-10 cm thick ash cloud surge deposit, together with secondary lahar deposits. These are followed by a at least 4 lava flows that extend 2 km down the flank of the volcano. It appears that the most recent pyroclastic event at Tacaná is also recorded in this sector of the volcano: above the block and ash flows occurs a > 1 m thick ash flow unit that can be seen at least 5 km from the vent. Lastly, the Santa Maria Ash fall deposit, produced in 1902, has capped most of the deposits at Tacaná.

Spreading of Somma-Vesuvio Volcanic Complex: is the Hazard for Plinian Eruptions being reduced?

Science.gov (United States)

Borgia, A.; Tizzani, P.; Solaro, G.; Luongo, G.; Fusi, N.

2003-12-01

Contrary to what is the common knowledge, a detailed structural study of active faulting and rifting of the summit area of Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex, combined with INSAR, levelling data and seismic profiling at sea suggests that the present-day long-term dynamic behaviour of the complex and of its summit caldera is characterized by volcanic spreading. The structural evolution is controlled by a number of asymmetric, intersecting leaf-grabens. The boundary faults of these grabens intersect at different angles the Somma caldera walls generating a set of wedge-horsts. While normal faulting characterizes the Somma caldera walls, the lavas of the past 150 years, infilling the caldera, have been rifted all around the southern, eastern and northern base of Vesuvio's cone, which, in turn, is being displaced seaward. Associated to the subsidence and extension of the summit area, relative uplift occurs along the coast; in addition, deformation of recent sediments 6-18 km offshore also indicate compression and uplift, which appears to be unrelated to regional tectonics. A preliminary evaluation indicates that rifting of the lavas is in the order of 1-2 mm/a with a southwestward average direction of displacement. Based on these data, we suggest that a wide sector of Somma-Vesuvio is spreading on its plastic sedimentary substratum, which have been identified by drilling. Volcanic spreading appears to have controlled the magmatic evolution and the energy decrease of major historic explosive eruptions since 79 AD. If our interpretation is correct, major plinian eruptions should not occur in the near future. On the other hand, rifting around the caldera suggests that volcanic activity could soon be renewed.

Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.

2009-01-01

The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age activity, unrest, that do not culminate in eruptions. Monitoring volcanic activity in the United States is the responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and is accomplished with academic, Federal, and State partners. The VHP supports five Volcano Observatories - the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the exception of HVO, which was established in 1912, the U.S. Volcano Observatories have been established in the past 27 years in response to specific volcanic eruptions or sustained levels of unrest. As understanding of volcanic activity and hazards has grown over the years, so have the extent and types of monitoring networks and techniques available to detect early signs of anomalous volcanic behavior. This increased capability is providing us with a more accurate gauge of volcanic activity in the United States. The purpose of this report is to (1) document the range of volcanic activity that U.S. Volcano Observatories have dealt with, beginning with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, (2) describe some overall characteristics of the activity, and (3) serve as a quick reference to pertinent published literature on the eruptions and unrest documented in this report.

Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

2016-11-10

Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

When the hazard you're monitoring is the least of your troubles… the early days of a ubiquitous computing citizen science initiative on active volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

van Manen, S. M.; Richards, M.; Seaton, R.; Cameron, I.; Avard, G.; Martinez, M.

2014-12-01

Approximately 500 million people live in close proximity to one or more of the world's 1500 active volcanoes, and this number is set to increase through population growth. The corresponding human, social, environmental and economic costs of volcanic activity are likewise set to rise. Monitoring of active volcanoes is imperative to minimize the impact of volcanic activity. However, people's responses towards risk are not just determined by objective scientific information, but also by socio-cognitive factors such as hazard salience; risk perception; anxiety levels and sense of self efficacy. This project aims to take a citizen science approach to the monitoring of hazardous volcanic gases: a low-cost automated ubiquitous technology station will increase spatial and temporal data resolution while providing citizens access to relevant, accurate, timely and local information. This means a single data stream can be used to develop a better understanding of volcanic degassing and raise levels of hazard salience and increase feelings of self efficacy. A year and two prototypes into the project, this work presents the lessons learnt to date. Careful consideration was given to the station design in light of the harsh conditions it may encounter. Once the first prototypes were built, results from the initial lab tests were encouraging. Yet it wasn't until the stations were taken into the field that unexpected challenges were encountered: humans. During the very first field trial the prototype was vandalised, our second attempt was thwarted by customs and courier services. As a result, we've had to be flexible in our approach and adapt our strategy and station design in response to these events, which will eventually result in a better outcome. However, this case study serves as a reminder of the importance of considering factors beyond the equipment, data, interpretation and involvement of the public, when planning and implementing a citizen science initiative.

Role of Social Media and Networking in Volcanic Crises and Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Sennert, S.; Klemetti, E. W.; Bird, D. K.

2016-12-01

The growth of social media as a primary and often preferred news source has led to the rapid dissemination of information about volcanic eruptions and potential volcanic crises as they begin, evolve, and end. This information comes from a variety of sources: news organisations, emergency management personnel, individuals (both members of the public and official representatives), and volcano monitoring agencies. Once posted, this information is easily shared, increasing the reach to a much broader population than more traditional forms of media, such as radio and newspapers. The onset and popularity of social media as a vehicle for dissemination of eruption information points toward the need to systematically incorporate social media into the official channels that volcano observatories use to distribute activity statements, forecasts, and images. We explore two examples of projects that collect/disseminate information regarding volcanic crises and eruptive activity via social media sources; the Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report (WVAR), which summarizes new and on-going volcanic activity globally and on a weekly basis, and Eruptions, a blog that discusses eruptions as well as other volcanic topics. Based on these experiences, recommendations are made to volcanic observatories in relation to the use of social media as a communication tool. These recommendations include: using social media as a two-way dialogue to communicate and receive information directly from the public and other sources; stating that the social media account is from an official source; and posting types of information that users want to see such as images, videos, and figures.

Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, São Miguel, Azores

Science.gov (United States)

Dibben, Christopher; Chester, David K.

1999-09-01

The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of São Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents ( n=50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation.

Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tullio Ricci

2013-11-01

Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

The Volcanism Ontology (VO): a model of the volcanic system

Science.gov (United States)

Myer, J.; Babaie, H. A.

2017-12-01

We have modeled a part of the complex material and process entities and properties of the volcanic system in the Volcanism Ontology (VO) applying several top-level ontologies such as Basic Formal Ontology (BFO), SWEET, and Ontology of Physics for Biology (OPB) within a single framework. The continuant concepts in BFO describe features with instances that persist as wholes through time and have qualities (attributes) that may change (e.g., state, composition, and location). In VO, the continuants include lava, volcanic rock, and volcano. The occurrent concepts in BFO include processes, their temporal boundaries, and the spatio-temporal regions within which they occur. In VO, these include eruption (process), the onset of pyroclastic flow (temporal boundary), and the space and time span of the crystallization of lava in a lava tube (spatio-temporal region). These processes can be of physical (e.g., debris flow, crystallization, injection), atmospheric (e.g., vapor emission, ash particles blocking solar radiation), hydrological (e.g., diffusion of water vapor, hot spring), thermal (e.g., cooling of lava) and other types. The properties (predicates) relate continuants to other continuants, occurrents to continuants, and occurrents to occurrents. The ontology also models other concepts such as laboratory and field procedures by volcanologists, sampling by sensors, and the type of instruments applied in monitoring volcanic activity. When deployed on the web, VO will be used to explicitly and formally annotate data and information collected by volcanologists based on domain knowledge. This will enable the integration of global volcanic data and improve the interoperability of software that deal with such data.

Hydrocarbon Reservoir Identification in Volcanic Zone by using Magnetotelluric and Geochemistry Information

Science.gov (United States)

Firda, S. I.; Permadi, A. N.; Supriyanto; Suwardi, B. N.

2018-03-01

The resistivity of Magnetotelluric (MT) data show the resistivity mapping in the volcanic reservoir zone and the geochemistry information for confirm the reservoir and source rock formation. In this research, we used 132 data points divided with two line at exploration area. We used several steps to make the resistivity mapping. There are time series correction, crosspower correction, then inversion of Magnetotelluric (MT) data. Line-2 and line-3 show anomaly geological condition with Gabon fault. The geology structure from the resistivity mapping show the fault and the geological formation with the geological rock data mapping distribution. The geochemistry information show the maturity of source rock formation. According to core sample analysis information, we get the visual porosity for reservoir rock formation in several geological structure. Based on that, we make the geological modelling where the potential reservoir and the source rock around our interest area.

Managing the effects of accelerated glacial melting on volcanic collapse and debris flows: Planchon-Peteroa Volcano, Southern Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Tormey, Daniel

2010-11-01

Glaciated mountains are among the most sensitive environments to climatic changes, and recent work has shown that large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes. With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth's most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life. This paper illustrates these effects in well-studied settings, focusing on the end-Pleistocene to Holocene glaciovolcanic growth and destruction of the cone of the active volcano Planchon-Peteroa in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at latitude 35° 15' S, along the border between Chile and Argentina. The development of the volcano over the last 14,000 years illustrates how glacial melting and magmatic activity can trigger landslides and sector collapses. Planchon had a large sector collapse that produced a highly mobile and erosive debris avalanche 11,000 years BP, and other slope instabilities during the end-Pleistocene/early Holocene deglaciation. The summit amphitheater left after the sector collapse was subject to alternating periods of glaciation and melting-induced lake formation. Breaching of the moraine dams then formed lahars and landslides originating at the western edge of the summit amphitheater, and the deposits are preserved along the western flank of the volcano. Deep incision of moraine deposits further down the western slope of the volcano indicates that the lahars and landslides were water-rich and had high erosive power. As illustrated by Planchon-Peteroa, the interplay among glacial growth and melting, magmatic activity, and slope stability is complex, but must be accounted for in volcanic hazard assessment. Planchon-Peteroa currently has the southernmost temperate zone

The right to know and the duty to disclose hazard information.

Science.gov (United States)

Baram, M S

1984-04-01

In late 1983, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) promulgated its final rule on "hazard communication," establishing the right of workers in manufacturing industries to information about chemical hazards, and the duty of importers and manufacturers to disclose such information. Baram reviews areas where the new, limited OSHA regulation conflicts with existing local, state, and federal laws, many of which are more stringent and more protective of worker and community health. He suggests steps that could be taken to avoid the extensive litigation that might result from the potential preemptive effect of the new OSHA rule.

Microphysical Properties of Alaskan Volcanic Ash

Science.gov (United States)

Puthukkudy, A.; Espinosa, R.; Rocha Lima, A.; Remer, L.; Colarco, P. R.; Whelley, P.; Krotkov, N. A.; Young, K.; Dubovik, O.; Wallace, K.; Martins, J. V.

2017-12-01

Volcanic ash has the potential to cause a variety of severe problems for human health and the environment. Therefore, effective monitoring of the dispersion and fallout from volcanic ash clouds and characterization of the aerosol particle properties are essential. One way to acquire information from volcanic clouds is through satellite remote sensing: such images have greater coverage than ground-based observations and can present a "big picture" perspective. A challenge of remote sensing is that assumptions of certain properties of the target are often a pre-requisite for making accurate and quantitative retrievals. For example, detailed information about size distribution, sphericity, and optical properties of the constituent matter is needed or must be assumed. The same kind of information is also needed for atmospheric transport models to properly simulate the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash. Presented here is a laboratory method to determine the microphysical and optical properties of volcanic ash samples collected from two Alaskan volcanoes with markedly different compositions. Our method uses a Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph) and a system that re-suspends the particles in an air flow. The PI-Neph measures angular light scattering and polarization of the re-suspended particles from 3o to 175o in scattering angle, with an angular resolution of 1o . Primary measurements include phase function and polarized phase function at three wavelengths (445nm, 532nm, and 661nm). Size distribution, sphericity, and complex refractive index are retrieved indirectly from the PI-Neph measurements using the GRASP (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) inversion algorithm. We report the results of this method applied to samples from the Mt. Okmok (2008) and Mt. Katmai (1912) volcanic eruptions. To our knowledge, this is the first time direct measurements of phase matrix elements of ash from Mt. Okmok and Mt. Katmai have been reported. Retrieved

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

1997-09-23

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

OpenAIRE

Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

2013-01-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

2002-03-01

Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Convertito, Vincenzo; Zollo, Aldo

2011-08-01

In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982-1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.

Exploring Geology on the World-Wide Web--Volcanoes and Volcanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Schimmrich, Steven Henry; Gore, Pamela J. W.

1996-01-01

Focuses on sites on the World Wide Web that offer information about volcanoes. Web sites are classified into areas of Global Volcano Information, Volcanoes in Hawaii, Volcanoes in Alaska, Volcanoes in the Cascades, European and Icelandic Volcanoes, Extraterrestrial Volcanism, Volcanic Ash and Weather, and Volcano Resource Directories. Suggestions…

“Points requiring elucidation” about Hawaiian volcanism: Chapter 24

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Michael P.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

2015-01-01

Hawaiian volcanoes, which are easily accessed and observed at close range, are among the most studied on the planet and have spurred great advances in the geosciences, from understanding deep Earth processes to forecasting volcanic eruptions. More than a century of continuous observation and study of Hawai‘i's volcanoes has also sharpened focus on those questions that remain unanswered. Although there is good evidence that volcanism in Hawai‘i is the result of a high-temperature upwelling plume from the mantle, the source composition and dynamics of the plume are controversial. Eruptions at the surface build the volcanoes of Hawai‘i, but important topics, including how the volcanoes grow and collapse and how magma is stored and transported, continue to be subjects of intense research. Forecasting volcanic activity is based mostly on pattern recognition, but determining and predicting the nature of eruptions, especially in serving the critical needs of hazards mitigation, require more realistic models and a greater understanding of what drives eruptive activity. These needs may be addressed by better integration among disciplines as well as by developing dynamic physics- and chemistry-based models that more thoroughly relate the physiochemical behavior of Hawaiian volcanism, from the deep Earth to the surface, to geological, geochemical, and geophysical data.

Visualizing Volcanic Clouds in the Atmosphere and Their Impact on Air Traffic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunther, Tobias; Schulze, Maik; Friederici, Anke; Theisel, Holger

2016-01-01

Volcanic eruptions are not only hazardous in the direct vicinity of a volcano, but they also affect the climate and air travel for great distances. This article sheds light on the Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro eruptions in 2011. The authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of Nabro's sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. The results here were developed for the 2014 IEEE Scientific Visualization Contest, which centers around the fusion of multiple satellite data modalities to reconstruct and assess the movement of volcanic ash and sulfate aerosol emissions. Using data from three volcanic eruptions that occurred in the span of approximately three weeks, the authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. This video provides animations of the reconstructed ash clouds. https://youtu.be/D9DvJ5AvZAs.

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

The onset of the volcanism in the Ciomadul Volcanic Dome Complex (Eastern Carpathians): Eruption chronology and magma type variation

Science.gov (United States)

Molnár, Kata; Harangi, Szabolcs; Lukács, Réka; Dunkl, István; Schmitt, Axel K.; Kiss, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Seghedi, Ioan

2018-04-01

volcanic eruptions were often separated by prolonged (ca. 100 to 200 kyr) quiescence periods. Demonstration of recurrence of volcanism even after such long dormancy has to be considered in assessing volcanic hazards, particularly in seemingly inactive volcanic areas, where no Holocene eruptions occurred. The term of 'volcanoes with Potentially Active Magma Storage' illustrates the potential of volcanic rejuvenation for such long-dormant volcanoes with the existence of melt-bearing crustal magma body.

Historic hydrovolcanism at Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for eruption hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrazzi, Dario; Németh, Károly; Geyer, Adelina; Álvarez-Valero, Antonio M.; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Bartolini, Stefania

2018-01-01

Deception Island (Antarctica) is the southernmost island of the South Shetland Archipelago in the South Atlantic. Volcanic activity since the eighteenth century, along with the latest volcanic unrest episodes in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, demonstrates that the volcanic system is still active and that future eruptions are likely. Despite its remote location, the South Shetland Islands are an important touristic destination during the austral summer. In addition, they host several research stations and three summer field camps. Deception Island is characterised by a Quaternary caldera system with a post-caldera succession and is considered to be part of an active, dispersed (monogenetic), volcanic field. Historical post-caldera volcanism on Deception Island involves monogenetic small-volume (VEI 2-3) eruptions such forming cones and various types of hydrovolcanic edifices. The scientific stations on the island were destroyed, or severely damaged, during the eruptions in 1967, 1969, and 1970 mainly due to explosive activity triggered by the interaction of rising (or erupting) magma with surface water, shallow groundwater, and ice. We conducted a detailed revision (field petrology and geochemistry) of the historical hydrovolcanic post-caldera eruptions of Deception Island with the aim to understand the dynamics of magma-water interaction, as well as characterise the most likely eruptive scenarios from future eruptions. We specifically focused on the Crimson Hill (estimated age between 1825 and 1829), and Kroner Lake (estimated age between 1829 and 1912) eruptions and 1967, 1969, and 1970 events by describing the eruption mechanisms related to the island's hydrovolcanic activity. Data suggest that the main hazards posed by volcanism on the island are due to fallout, ballistic blocks and bombs, and subordinate, dilute PDCs. In addition, Deception Island can be divided into five areas of expected activity due to magma-water interaction, providing additional

Volcanic geomorphology using TanDEM-X

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Michael; Kubanek, Julia

2016-04-01

Topography is perhaps the most fundamental dataset for any volcano, yet is surprisingly difficult to collect, especially during the course of an eruption. For example, photogrammetry and lidar are time-intensive and often expensive, and they cannot be employed when the surface is obscured by clouds. Ground-based surveys can operate in poor weather but have poor spatial resolution and may expose personnel to hazardous conditions. Repeat passes of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data provide excellent spatial resolution, but topography in areas of surface change (from vegetation swaying in the wind to physical changes in the landscape) between radar passes cannot be imaged. The German Space Agency's TanDEM-X satellite system, however, solves this issue by simultaneously acquiring SAR data of the surface using a pair of orbiting satellites, thereby removing temporal change as a complicating factor in SAR-based topographic mapping. TanDEM-X measurements have demonstrated exceptional value in mapping the topography of volcanic environments in as-yet limited applications. The data provide excellent resolution (down to ~3-m pixel size) and are useful for updating topographic data at volcanoes where surface change has occurred since the most recent topographic dataset was collected. Such data can be used for applications ranging from correcting radar interferograms for topography, to modeling flow pathways in support of hazards mitigation. The most valuable contributions, however, relate to calculating volume changes related to eruptive activity. For example, limited datasets have provided critical measurements of lava dome growth and collapse at volcanoes including Merapi (Indonesia), Colima (Mexico), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and of basaltic lava flow emplacement at Tolbachik (Kamchatka), Etna (Italy), and Kīlauea (Hawai`i). With topographic data spanning an eruption, it is possible to calculate eruption rates - information that might not otherwise be available

Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

2012-12-01

An abundance of hazardous effects including ash fall out, basaltic lava flows and poisonous volcanic gas have been documented at active volcanic centers (e.g. Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand; Bebbington and Cronin 2011) and have been inferred using tools such as geologic mapping and geochemical analyses for prehistoric eruptions (e.g. Cerro Negro, Nicaragua; Hill et al. 1995; McKnight and Williams 1997). The Cascades volcanic history is also dominated by prehistoric eruptions; however the associated hazards have yet to be studied in-depth. Short recurrence rates of cinder cone volcanism (1x10-5 to 5x10-4 events/yr; Smid et al. 2009) likely intensify the probability of human experience with cinder cone hazards. Hence, it is important to understand the effects that cinder cone volcanism can have on communities near the Cascades. In this study, we estimate volatile fluxes of prehistoric Cascade cinder cone eruptions by analyzing olivine-hosted melt inclusions and rapidly quenched tephra matrix glass. The melt inclusions provide pre-eruptive volatile concentrations whereas tephra groundmass glass provides post-eruptive volatile concentrations. By comparing initial and final concentrations we can determine the amounts of sulfur, chlorine and fluorine released into the atmosphere. We have analyzed S, Cl and F concentrations in melt inclusions from cinder cones in the Central Oregon Cascades (Collier Cone, Yapoah Crater, Four-in-One Fissure, Garrison Butte) and in Northern California near Mt. Lassen (Cinder Cone, Basalt of Old Railroad Grade, Basalt of Highway 44). Analyses of volatiles in melt inclusions and matrix glasses were done using the Cameca SX100 electron microprobe at the University of Oregon. Melt inclusions and matrix glass were run under 15kV, 50nA, and 10μm-beam conditions. For F analyses, a use of an LTAP crystal and relatively long counting times (160 sec. on peak) resulted in good analytical precision. Preliminary results for melt inclusions from

Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ashley G.; Doubleday, Joshua R.; Chien, Steve A.

2013-01-01

In a volcanic emergency, time is of the essence. It is vital to quantify eruption parameters (thermal emission, effusion rate, location of activity) and distribute this information as quickly as possible to decision-makers in order to enable effective evaluation of eruption-related risk and hazard. The goal of this work was to automate and streamline processing of spacecraft hyperspectral data, automate product generation, and automate distribution of products. Visible and Short-Wave Infrared Images of volcanic eruption in Iceland in May 2010." class="caption" align="right">The software rapidly processes hyperspectral data, correcting for incident sunlight where necessary, and atmospheric transmission; detects thermally anomalous pixels; fits data with model black-body thermal emission spectra to determine radiant flux; calculates atmospheric convection thermal removal; and then calculates total heat loss. From these results, an estimation of effusion rate is made. Maps are generated of thermal emission and location (see figure). Products are posted online, and relevant parties notified. Effusion rate data are added to historical record and plotted to identify spikes in activity for persistently active eruptions. The entire process from start to end is autonomous. Future spacecraft, especially those in deep space, can react to detection of transient processes without the need to communicate with Earth, thus increasing science return. Terrestrially, this removes the need for human intervention.

Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Treatment Building Safety Information Document (SID)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fatell, L.B.; Woolsey, G.B.

1993-01-01

This Safety Information Document (SID) provides a description and analysis of operations for the Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Disposal Facility Treatment Building (the Treatment Building). The Treatment Building has been classified as a moderate hazard facility, and the level of analysis performed and the methodology used are based on that classification. Preliminary design of the Treatment Building has identified the need for two separate buildings for waste treatment processes. The term Treatment Building applies to all these facilities. The evaluation of safety for the Treatment Building is accomplished in part by the identification of hazards associated with the facility and the analysis of the facility's response to postulated events involving those hazards. The events are analyzed in terms of the facility features that minimize the causes of such events, the quantitative determination of the consequences, and the ability of the facility to cope with each event should it occur. The SID presents the methodology, assumptions, and results of the systematic evaluation of hazards associated with operation of the Treatment Building. The SID also addresses the spectrum of postulated credible events, involving those hazards, that could occur. Facility features important to safety are identified and discussed in the SID. The SID identifies hazards and reports the analysis of the spectrum of credible postulated events that can result in the following consequences: Personnel exposure to radiation; Radioactive material release to the environment; Personnel exposure to hazardous chemicals; Hazardous chemical release to the environment; Events leading to an onsite/offsite fatality; and Significant damage to government property. The SID addresses the consequences to the onsite and offsite populations resulting from postulated credible events and the safety features in place to control and mitigate the consequences

Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Treatment Building Safety Information Document (SID)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fatell, L.B.; Woolsey, G.B.

1993-04-15

This Safety Information Document (SID) provides a description and analysis of operations for the Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Disposal Facility Treatment Building (the Treatment Building). The Treatment Building has been classified as a moderate hazard facility, and the level of analysis performed and the methodology used are based on that classification. Preliminary design of the Treatment Building has identified the need for two separate buildings for waste treatment processes. The term Treatment Building applies to all these facilities. The evaluation of safety for the Treatment Building is accomplished in part by the identification of hazards associated with the facility and the analysis of the facility`s response to postulated events involving those hazards. The events are analyzed in terms of the facility features that minimize the causes of such events, the quantitative determination of the consequences, and the ability of the facility to cope with each event should it occur. The SID presents the methodology, assumptions, and results of the systematic evaluation of hazards associated with operation of the Treatment Building. The SID also addresses the spectrum of postulated credible events, involving those hazards, that could occur. Facility features important to safety are identified and discussed in the SID. The SID identifies hazards and reports the analysis of the spectrum of credible postulated events that can result in the following consequences: Personnel exposure to radiation; Radioactive material release to the environment; Personnel exposure to hazardous chemicals; Hazardous chemical release to the environment; Events leading to an onsite/offsite fatality; and Significant damage to government property. The SID addresses the consequences to the onsite and offsite populations resulting from postulated credible events and the safety features in place to control and mitigate the consequences.

Observation of the volcanic plume of Eyjafjallajoekull over continental Europe by MAX-DOAS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, S.; Bobrowski, N.; Friess, U.; Platt, U. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); Flentje, H. [DWD, Hohenpeissenberg (Germany); Hoermann, C.; Sihler, H. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); MPI, Mainz (Germany); Kern, C. [USGS, Vancouver (Canada); Wagner, T. [MPI, Mainz (Germany)

2011-07-01

The recent eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull Volcano (Iceland) and the emitted ash plume which disrupted commercial air traffic over Europe has led to an exhaustive debate on how to improve our ability to quantitatively determine the ash load in the atmosphere as a function of time and geographical location. Satellite instruments detecting ash and SO{sub 2} and ground-based LIDAR stations can help constrain atmospheric transport and meteorology models used to predict ash dispersion. However, MAX-DOAS represents an additional tool with considerable potential for the quantitative detection of elevated volcanic ash and SO{sub 2} plumes. It performs especially well during weather conditions in which satellites and LIDARs are impeded in their effectiveness, e.g. in the case of dense clouds above or below the plume, respectively. Here, the advantages and disadvantages of the DOAS technique are discussed, and its potential for monitoring of volcanic ash hazards explored. Results of ash and SO{sub 2} measurements of the Eyjafjallajoekull plume as it passed over Heidelberg are presented as an example of a positive detection of a highly diluted volcanic plume. Their low cost and complementary nature makes MAX-DOAS a promising technology in the field of aviation hazard detection and management.

Geothermal Prospecting with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Technologies in Xilingol Volcanic Field in the Eastern Inner Mongolia, NE China

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, F.; Huang, S.; Xiong, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Cheng, Y.

2013-05-01

Geothermal energy is a renewable and low-carbon energy source independent of climate change. It is most abundant in Cenozoic volcanic areas where high temperature can be obtained within a relatively shallow depth. Like other geological resources, geothermal resource prospecting and exploration require a good understanding of the host media. Remote sensing (RS) has the advantages of high spatial and temporal resolution and broad spatial coverage over the conventional geological and geophysical prospecting, while geographical information system (GIS) has intuitive, flexible, and convenient characteristics. In this study, we apply RS and GIS technics in prospecting the geothermal energy potential in Xilingol, a Cenozoic volcanic field in the eastern Inner Mongolia, NE China. Landsat TM/ETM+ multi-temporal images taken under clear-sky conditions, digital elevation model (DEM) data, and other auxiliary data including geological maps of 1:2,500,000 and 1:200,000 scales are used in this study. The land surface temperature (LST) of the study area is retrieved from the Landsat images with the single-channel algorithm on the platform of ENVI developed by ITT Visual Information Solutions. Information of linear and circular geological structure is then extracted from the LST maps and compared to the existing geological data. Several useful technologies such as principal component analysis (PCA), vegetation suppression technique, multi-temporal comparative analysis, and 3D Surface View based on DEM data are used to further enable a better visual geologic interpretation with the Landsat imagery of Xilingol. The Preliminary results show that major faults in the study area are mainly NE and NNE oriented. Several major volcanism controlling faults and Cenozoic volcanic eruption centers have been recognized from the linear and circular structures in the remote images. Seven areas have been identified as potential targets for further prospecting geothermal energy based on the visual

Global volcanic earthquake swarm database and preliminary analysis of volcanic earthquake swarm duration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. R. McNutt

1996-06-01

Full Text Available Global data from 1979 to 1989 pertaining to volcanic earthquake swarms have been compiled into a custom-designed relational database. The database is composed of three sections: 1 a section containing general information on volcanoes, 2 a section containing earthquake swarm data (such as dates of swarm occurrence and durations, and 3 a section containing eruption information. The most abundant and reliable parameter, duration of volcanic earthquake swarms, was chosen for preliminary analysis. The distribution of all swarm durations was found to have a geometric mean of 5.5 days. Precursory swarms were then separated from those not associated with eruptions. The geometric mean precursory swarm duration was 8 days whereas the geometric mean duration of swarms not associated with eruptive activity was 3.5 days. Two groups of precursory swarms are apparent when duration is compared with the eruption repose time. Swarms with durations shorter than 4 months showed no clear relationship with the eruption repose time. However, the second group, lasting longer than 4 months, showed a significant positive correlation with the log10 of the eruption repose period. The two groups suggest that different suites of physical processes are involved in the generation of volcanic earthquake swarms.

Role of social media and networking in volcanic crises and communication

Science.gov (United States)

Sennert, Sally K.; Klemetti, Erik W.; Bird, Deanne

2017-01-01

The growth of social media as a primary and often preferred news source has contributed to the rapid dissemination of information about volcanic eruptions and potential volcanic crises as an eruption begins. Information about volcanic activity comes from a variety of sources: news organisations, emergency management personnel, individuals (both public and official) and volcano monitoring agencies. Once posted, this information is easily shared, increasing the reach to a much broader population than the original audience. The onset and popularity of social media as a vehicle for eruption information dissemination has presented many benefits as well as challenges, and points towards a need for a more unified system for information. This includes volcano observatories using social media as an official channels to distribute activity statements, forecasts and predictions on social media, in addition to the archiving of images and data activity. This chapter looks at two examples of projects that collect / disseminate information regarding volcanic crises and eruptive activity utilizing social media sources. Based on those examples, recommendations are made to volcanic observatories in relation to the use of social media as a two-way communication tool. These recommendations include: using social media as a two-way dialogue to communicate and receive information directly from the public and other sources; stating that the social media account is from an official source; and, posting types of information that the public are seeking such as images, videos and figures.

Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GRAVES, C.E.

2001-01-01

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field

Prioritization of natural phenomena hazards evaluations for CHG facilities

CERN Document Server

Graves, C E

2001-01-01

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment by potential damage to structures, systems and components (SSCs). Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), flood, volcanic eruption, lightning strike, or extreme cold or heat are examples of NPH. This document outlines the method used to prioritize buildings for inspection following an NPH event and contains the priority list for CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG) buildings. Once an NPH event occurs and the Hanford Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, this document will be used by the EOC to assign building inspections for the trained evaluators, barring any information from the field.

Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach II: Insights into transportation network damage and functionality

Science.gov (United States)

Blake, Daniel M.; Deligne, Natalia I.; Wilson, Thomas M.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Woods, Richard

2017-06-01

Transportation networks are critical infrastructure in urban environments. Before, during and following volcanic activity, these networks can incur direct and indirect impacts, which subsequently reduces the Level-of-Service available to transportation end-users. Additionally, reductions in service can arise from management strategies including evacuation zoning, causing additional complications for transportation end-users and operators. Here, we develop metrics that incorporate Level-of-Service for transportation end-users as the key measure of vulnerability for multi-hazard volcanic impact and risk assessments. A hypothetical eruption scenario recently developed for the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, is applied to describe potential impacts of a small basaltic eruption on different transportation modes, namely road, rail, and activities at airports and ports. We demonstrate how the new metrics can be applied at specific locations worldwide by considering the geophysical hazard sequence and evacuation zones in this scenario, a process that was strongly informed by consultation with transportation infrastructure providers and emergency management officials. We also discuss the potential implications of modified hazard sequences (e.g. different wind profiles during the scenario, and unrest with no resulting eruption) on transportation vulnerability and population displacement. The vent area of the eruption scenario used in our study is located north of the Māngere Bridge suburb of Auckland. The volcanic activity in the scenario progresses from seismic unrest, through phreatomagmatic explosions generating pyroclastic surges to a magmatic phase generating a scoria cone and lava flows. We find that most physical damage to transportation networks occurs from pyroclastic surges during the initial stages of the eruption. However, the most extensive service reduction across all networks occurs 6 days prior to the eruption onset, largely attributed to the

Social Media: Gateway to Public Preparedness and Understanding of GeoHazards

Science.gov (United States)

Ballmann, J. E.; Bohon, W.; Bartel, B. A.

2016-12-01

The clear, timely communication of natural hazards information is critical to providing the public with the tools and information they need to make informed decisions before, during, and after events such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. For the geohazards community, this is a multi-sector collaboration involving partners from national, state, and local governments, businesses, educational organizations, non-profit groups, and scientific institutions, for the benefit and participation of the whole community. Communications channels must be clear, consistent, and unified for the sake of maximum reach. One method of public communication that has proven to be particularly effective in disseminating hazards-related information is social media. The broad social and geographic reach of social media coupled with its ubiquitous use in all age groups makes it a powerful way to reach large segments of the population. Social media is already widely used by mass media and scientific organizations to communicate science and hazards. However, it is important that science organizations present a united and clear message, particularly about hazards preparation and response. The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), UNAVCO, and the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) have created a Joint Social Media Task Force. The objective of this collaboration is 1) to build social media communities and improve the reach of science messaging, 2) to create and present consistent and clear messaging across social media platforms and regional facilities, 3) to promote outstanding products and educational information , 4) to assist and collaborate in regional, national and international efforts (TweetChats, Reddit fora, ShakeOut, etc.) and 5) to assist and support the efforts of FEMA, the USGS and other partner organizations during crisis situations. Here, we outline the difficulties and successes of creating such an alliance and provide a road map

In-flight dynamics of volcanic ballistic projectiles

Science.gov (United States)

Taddeucci, J.; Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, M. A.; Cruz-Vázquez, O.; Del Bello, E.; Scarlato, P.; Ricci, T.

2017-09-01

Centimeter to meter-sized volcanic ballistic projectiles from explosive eruptions jeopardize people and properties kilometers from the volcano, but they also provide information about the past eruptions. Traditionally, projectile trajectory is modeled using simplified ballistic theory, accounting for gravity and drag forces only and assuming simply shaped projectiles free moving through air. Recently, collisions between projectiles and interactions with plumes are starting to be considered. Besides theory, experimental studies and field mapping have so far dominated volcanic projectile research, with only limited observations. High-speed, high-definition imaging now offers a new spatial and temporal scale of observation that we use to illuminate projectile dynamics. In-flight collisions commonly affect the size, shape, trajectory, and rotation of projectiles according to both projectile nature (ductile bomb versus brittle block) and the location and timing of collisions. These, in turn, are controlled by ejection pulses occurring at the vent. In-flight tearing and fragmentation characterize large bombs, which often break on landing, both factors concurring to decrease the average grain size of the resulting deposits. Complex rotation and spinning are ubiquitous features of projectiles, and the related Magnus effect may deviate projectile trajectory by tens of degrees. A new relationship is derived, linking projectile velocity and size with the size of the resulting impact crater. Finally, apparent drag coefficient values, obtained for selected projectiles, mostly range from 1 to 7, higher than expected, reflecting complex projectile dynamics. These new perspectives will impact projectile hazard mitigation and the interpretation of projectile deposits from past eruptions, both on Earth and on other planets.

Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

2012-01-01

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

Residentś risk perception of and response to SO2 risk in east Iceland during the volcanic eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun 2014-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Jóhannesdóttir, Guðrún

2016-04-01

Many Icelandic communities are exposed to volcanic eruptions every two to three years. In order to reduce risk and enhance resilience in communities exposed to volcanic hazards, involvement of local communities is essential during all phases of disaster management, from prevention and preparedness, to response and recovery. Preparedness plans for volcanic eruptions are in place for many of the volcanic hazards in Iceland especially evacuation of residents due to immediate threat from glacial outburst floods from sub-glacial eruptions. Some of the recent risks associated with volcanic eruptions have had a slow onset (volcanic gas) while others have had a sudden onset (volcanic ash). The risks are both linked to air quality in inhabited areas and dispersal are highly dependent on prevailing winds so timely forecast and modelling is needed in order to inform the population about the risk. Without preparedness plans many communities in Iceland were exposed to an unanticipated volcanic gas risks from Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in 2014-2015 during an eruption in Bárðarbunga/Holuhraun. With no system in place to measure the highly toxic gas from the eruption, the Environmental Agency, The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management and the Directorate of Health set up a system with over 40 handheld gas detectors and online links to 7 detectors around Iceland to monitor the gas. The defined health limit of SO2 is 350 μg/m3 for one hour, while 2600 μg/m3 for 15 minutes for working outdoors. Nevertheless, some communities in Iceland experienced much higher values and the highest measured concentration in communities during the eruption was 21.000 μg/m3. When the concentration of SO2 reached the level of >1000 μg/m3 a warning was issued and SMS text messages were sent to all mobile phones in the affected area. In order to engage with residents during the eruption the Civil Protection and local authorities, Directorate of Health, scientist and specialists

Geohazards (floods and landslides in the Ndop plain, Cameroon volcanic line

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wotchoko Pierre

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The Ndop Plain, located along the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL, is a volcano-tectonic plain, formed by a series of tectonic movements, volcanic eruptions and sedimentation phases. Floods (annually and landslides (occasionally occur with devastating environmental effects. However, this plain attracts a lot of inhabitants owing to its fertile alluvial soils. With demographic explosion in the plain, the inhabitants (143,000 people tend to farm and inhabit new zones which are prone to these geohazards. In this paper, we use field observations, laboratory analyses, satellite imagery and complementary methods using appropriate software to establish hazard (flood and landslide maps of the Ndop Plain. Natural factors as well as anthropogenic factors are considered.

Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

2010-12-01

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

Science.gov (United States)

Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

2012-12-01

Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

Months between rejuvenation and volcanic eruption at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

Science.gov (United States)

Till, Christy B.; Vazquez, Jorge A.; Boyce, Jeremy W

2015-01-01

Rejuvenation of previously intruded silicic magma is an important process leading to effusive rhyolite, which is the most common product of volcanism at calderas with protracted histories of eruption and unrest such as Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Valles, USA. Although orders of magnitude smaller in volume than rare caldera-forming super-eruptions, these relatively frequent effusions of rhyolite are comparable to the largest eruptions of the 20th century and pose a considerable volcanic hazard. However, the physical pathway from rejuvenation to eruption of silicic magma is unclear particularly because the time between reheating of a subvolcanic intrusion and eruption is poorly quantified. This study uses geospeedometry of trace element profiles with nanometer resolution in sanidine crystals to reveal that Yellowstone’s most recent volcanic cycle began when remobilization of a near- or sub-solidus silicic magma occurred less than 10 months prior to eruption, following a 220,000 year period of volcanic repose. Our results reveal a geologically rapid timescale for rejuvenation and effusion of ~3 km3 of high-silica rhyolite lava even after protracted cooling of the subvolcanic system, which is consistent with recent physical modeling that predict a timescale of several years or less. Future renewal of rhyolitic volcanism at Yellowstone is likely to require an energetic intrusion of mafic or silicic magma into the shallow subvolcanic reservoir and could rapidly generate an eruptible rhyolite on timescales similar to those documented here.

Mapping local knowledge of hazards to inform research, practice and policy in the Americas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, Ashley; Eosco, Gina; Norton, Todd; Ruiz, Jorge; Tate, Eric; Weathers, Melinda

2011-01-01

Hazards are fundamentally understood and experienced spatially; therefore, it is not surprising that hazards research, management, communication, and policy have relied heavily on spatial representations using geomatics tools such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). As powerful and useful as these tools have been, they tend to privilege the collection and utilization of quantifiable data at the expense of qualitative data (e.g., experiential local knowledge). Local knowledge has been increasingly used both to challenge and to supplement mapping strategies, although less so in the realm of hazards than in other areas such as natural resource management. In this paper, we propose a unique framework for taking these approaches one-step further through the development of a knowledge management system that integrates local knowledge of hazards with spatial visualization tools. First, we discuss relevant literature related to current tools and practices for visualizing hazard information. Next we propose a methodology for mapping mental models of individuals. Finally, we discuss the potential applications of such a framework for hazards research, practice, and policy, as well as discuss the challenges associated with this framework.

Effects of volcanic deposit disaggregation on exposed water composition

Science.gov (United States)

Back, W. E.; Genareau, K. D.

2016-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions produce a variety of hazards. Pyroclastic material can be introduced to water through ash fallout, pyroclastic flows entering water bodies, and/or lahars. Remobilization of tephras can occur soon after eruption or centuries later, introducing additional pyroclastic material into the environment. Introduction of pyroclastic material may alter the dissolved element concentration and pH of exposed waters, potentially impacting drinking water supplies, agriculture, and ecology. This study focuses on the long-term impacts of volcanic deposits on water composition due to the mechanical breakup of volcanic deposits over time. Preliminary work has shown that mechanical milling of volcanic deposits will cause significant increases in dissolved element concentrations, conductivity, and pH of aqueous solutions. Pyroclastic material from seven eruptions sites was collected, mechanically milled to produce grain sizes Soufriere Hills, Ruapehu), mafic (Lathrop Wells) and ultramafic (mantle xenoliths) volcanic deposits. Lathrop Wells has an average bulk concentration of 49.15 wt.% SiO2, 6.11 wt. % MgO, and 8.39 wt. % CaO and produces leachate concentrations of 85.69 mg/kg for Ca and 37.22 mg/kg for Mg. Taupo and Valles Caldera samples have a bulk concentration of 72.9 wt.% SiO2, 0.59 wt. % MgO, and 1.48 wt. % CaO, and produces leachate concentrations of 4.08 mg/kg for Ca and 1.56 mg/kg for Mg. Similar testing will be conducted on the intermediate and ultramafic samples to test the hypothesis that bulk magma composition and mineralogy will directly relate to the increased dissolved element concentration of exposed waters. The measured effects on aqueous solutions will aid in evaluation of impacts to marine and freshwater systems exposed to volcanic deposits.

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

2016-07-01

Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rampino, Michael R.

1991-01-01

Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

Volcanism on Io

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Ashley Gerard

2014-03-01

Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

Waste management facilities cost information for transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feizollahi, F.; Shropshire, D.; Burton, D.

1995-06-01

This report contains cost information on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Complex waste streams that will be addressed by DOE in the programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS) project. It describes the results of the task commissioned by DOE to develop cost information for transportation of radioactive and hazardous waste. It contains transportation costs for most types of DOE waste streams: low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), alpha LLW and alpha MLLW, Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) LLW and DOE equivalent waste, transuranic (TRU) waste, spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and hazardous waste. Unit rates for transportation of contact-handled ( 200 mrem/hr contact dose) radioactive waste are estimated. Land transportation of radioactive and hazardous waste is subject to regulations promulgated by DOE, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and state and local agencies. The cost estimates in this report assume compliance with applicable regulations

Waste management facilities cost information for transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feizollahi, F.; Shropshire, D.; Burton, D.

1995-06-01

This report contains cost information on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Complex waste streams that will be addressed by DOE in the programmatic environmental impact statement (PEIS) project. It describes the results of the task commissioned by DOE to develop cost information for transportation of radioactive and hazardous waste. It contains transportation costs for most types of DOE waste streams: low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), alpha LLW and alpha MLLW, Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) LLW and DOE equivalent waste, transuranic (TRU) waste, spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and hazardous waste. Unit rates for transportation of contact-handled (<200 mrem/hr contact dose) and remote-handled (>200 mrem/hr contact dose) radioactive waste are estimated. Land transportation of radioactive and hazardous waste is subject to regulations promulgated by DOE, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and state and local agencies. The cost estimates in this report assume compliance with applicable regulations.

Volcanic harzards studies tailored to future populations and facilities: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keating, Gordon N.; Perry, Frank V.; Harrington, Charles; Krier, Don; Valentine, Greg A.; Gaffney, Edward; Cline, Mike

2004-01-01

The evaluation of impacts of potential volcanic eruptions on populations and facilities far in the future may involve detailed volcanological studies that differ from traditional hazards analyses. The proximity of Quaternary volcanoes to a proposed repository for disposal of the USA's high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has required in-depth study of probability and consequences of basaltic igneous activity. Because of the underground nature of the repository, evaluation of the potential effects of dike intrusion and interaction with the waste packages stored in underground tunnels (dnfts) as well as effects of eruption and ash dispersal have been important. These studies include analyses of dike propagation, dike-drift intersection, flow of magma into dnfts, heat and volcanic gas migration, atmospheric dispersal of tephra, and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra by surficial processes. Unlike traditional volcanic hazards studies that focus on impacts on housing, transportation, communications, etc. (to name a small subset), the igneous consequences studies at Yucca Mountain have focused on evaluation of igneous impacts on nuclear waste packages and implications for enhanced radioactive dose on a hypothetical future ((le) 10000 yrs) local population. Potential exposure pathways include groundwater (affected by in-situ degradation of waste packages by igneous heat and corrosion) and inhalation, ingestion, and external exposure due to deposition and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra

Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

2017-12-01

Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

Fault propagation folds induced by gravitational failure and slumping of the Central Costa Rica volcanic range: Implications for large terrestrial and Martian volcanic edifices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgia, A.; Burr, J.; Montero, W.; Morales, L.D.; Alvarado, G.E.

1990-01-01

Long sublinear ridges and related scarps located at the base of large volcanic structures are frequently interpreted as normal faults associated with extensional regional stress. In contrast, the ridges bordering the Central Costa Rica volcanic range (CCRVR) are the topographic expression of hanging wall asymmetric angular anticlines overlying low-angle thrust faults at the base of the range. These faults formed by gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of the range due to the weight of the volcanic edifices and were perhaps triggered by the intrusion of magma over the past 20,000 years. These anticlines are hypothesized to occur along the base of the volcano, where the thrust faults ramp up toward the sea bottom. Ridges and scarps between 2,000 and 5,000 m below sea level are interpreted as the topographic expression of these folds. The authors further suggest that the scarps of the CCRVR and valid scaled terrestrial analogs of the perimeter scarp of the Martian volcano Olympus Mons. They suggest that the crust below Olympus Mons has failed under the load of the volcano, triggering the radial slumping of the flanks of the volcano on basal thrusts. The thrusting would have, in turn, formed the anticlinal ridges and scarps that surround the edifice. The thrust faults may extend all the way to the base of the Martian crust (about 40 km), and they may have been active until almost the end of the volcanic activity. They suggest that gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of volcanoes is a process common to most large volcanic edifices. In the CCRVR this slumping of the flanks is a slow intermittent process, but it could evolve to rapid massive avalanching leading to catastrophic eruptions. Thus monitoring of uplift and displacement of the folds related to the slump tectonics could become an additional effective method for mitigating volcanic hazards

Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

Science.gov (United States)

García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

2016-05-01

Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

2015-12-01

The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

Detection and characterization of volcanic ash plumes over Lille during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mortier

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Routine sun-photometer and micro-lidar measurements were performed in Lille, northern France, in April and May 2010 during the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption. The impact of such an eruption emphasized significance of hazards for human activities and importance of observations of the volcanic aerosol particles. This paper presents the main results of a joint micro-lidar/sun-photometer analysis performed in Lille, where volcanic ash plumes were observed during at least 22 days, whenever weather conditions permitted. Aerosol properties retrieved from automatic sun-photometer measurements (AERONET were strongly changed during the volcanic aerosol plumes transport over Lille. In most cases, the aerosol optical depth (AOD increased, whereas Ångström exponent decreased, thus indicating coarse-mode dominance in the volume size distribution. Moreover, the non-spherical fraction retrieved by AERONET significantly increased. The real part of the complex refractive index was up to 1.55 at 440 nm during the eruption, compared to background data of about 1.46 before the eruption. Collocated lidar data revealed that several aerosol layers were present between 2 and 5 km, all originating from the Iceland region as confirmed by backward trajectories. The volcanic ash AOD was derived from lidar extinction profiles and sun-photometer AOD, and its maximum was estimated around 0.37 at 532 nm on 18 April 2010. This value was observed at an altitude of 1700 m and corresponds to an ash mass concentration (AMC slightly higher than 1000 μg m−3 (±50%. An effective lidar ratio of ash particles of 48 sr was retrieved at 532 nm for 17 April during the early stages of the eruption, a value which agrees with several other studies carried out on this topic. Even though the accuracy of the retrievals is not as high as that obtained from reference multiwavelength lidar systems, this study demonstrates the opportunity of micro-lidar and sun-photometer joint data

User perception and interpretation of tornado probabilistic hazard information: Comparison of four graphical designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans

2017-11-01

Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated detection and cataloging of global explosive volcanism using the International Monitoring System infrasound network

Science.gov (United States)

Matoza, Robin S.; Green, David N.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Shearer, Peter M.; Fee, David; Mialle, Pierrick; Ceranna, Lars

2017-04-01

We experiment with a new method to search systematically through multiyear data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network to identify explosive volcanic eruption signals originating anywhere on Earth. Detecting, quantifying, and cataloging the global occurrence of explosive volcanism helps toward several goals in Earth sciences and has direct applications in volcanic hazard mitigation. We combine infrasound signal association across multiple stations with source location using a brute-force, grid-search, cross-bearings approach. The algorithm corrects for a background prior rate of coherent unwanted infrasound signals (clutter) in a global grid, without needing to screen array processing detection lists from individual stations prior to association. We develop the algorithm using case studies of explosive eruptions: 2008 Kasatochi, Alaska; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kurile Islands; and 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. We apply the method to global IMS infrasound data from 2005-2010 to construct a preliminary acoustic catalog that emphasizes sustained explosive volcanic activity (long-duration signals or sequences of impulsive transients lasting hours to days). This work represents a step toward the goal of integrating IMS infrasound data products into global volcanic eruption early warning and notification systems. Additionally, a better understanding of volcanic signal detection and location with the IMS helps improve operational event detection, discrimination, and association capabilities.

Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeuring, Jelmer

2011-01-01

Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

Deformation in volcanic areas: a numerical approach for their prediction in Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands); Deformaciones en areas volcanicas: una aproximacin numerica para su prediccion en el volcan Teide (Tenerife, Islas Canarias)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charco, M.; Galan del Sastre, P.

2011-07-01

Active volcanic areas study comprises both, observation of physical changes in the natural media and the interpretation of such changes. Nowadays, the application of spatial geodetic techniques, such as GPS (Global Positioning System) or InSAR (Interferometry with Synthetic Aperture Radar), for deformation understanding in volcanic areas, revolutionizes our view of this geodetic signals. Deformation of the Earth's surface reflects tectonic, magmatic and hydrothermal processes at depth. In this way, the prediction of volcanic deformation through physical modelling provides a link between the observation and depth interior processes that could be crucial for volcanic hazards assessment. In this work, we develop a numerical model for elastic deformation study. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used for the implementation of the numerical model. FEM allows to take into account different morphology, structural characteristics and the mechanical heterogeneities of the medium. Numerical simulations of deformation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) taking into account different medium hypothesis allow us to conclude that the accuracy of the predictions depends on how well the natural system is described. (Author) 22 refs.

The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Rougier, Jonathan; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Brown, Sarah K.

2018-01-01

For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude-frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude-frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions' (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

Information System Hazard Analysis: A Method for Identifying Technology-induced Latent Errors for Safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Jens H; Mason-Blakley, Fieran; Price, Morgan

2015-01-01

Many health information and communication technologies (ICT) are safety-critical; moreover, reports of technology-induced adverse events related to them are plentiful in the literature. Despite repeated criticism and calls to action, recent data collected by the Institute of Medicine (IOM) and other organization do not indicate significant improvements with respect to the safety of health ICT systems. A large part of the industry still operates on a reactive "break & patch" model; the application of pro-active, systematic hazard analysis methods for engineering ICT that produce "safe by design" products is sparse. This paper applies one such method: Information System Hazard Analysis (ISHA). ISHA adapts and combines hazard analysis techniques from other safety-critical domains and customizes them for ICT. We provide an overview of the steps involved in ISHA and describe.

Reducing risk from lahar hazards: concepts, case studies, and roles for scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Pierson, Thomas C.; Wood, Nathan J.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

2014-01-01

Lahars are rapid flows of mud-rock slurries that can occur without warning and catastrophically impact areas more than 100 km downstream of source volcanoes. Strategies to mitigate the potential for damage or loss from lahars fall into four basic categories: (1) avoidance of lahar hazards through land-use planning; (2) modification of lahar hazards through engineered protection structures; (3) lahar warning systems to enable evacuations; and (4) effective response to and recovery from lahars when they do occur. Successful application of any of these strategies requires an accurate understanding and assessment of the hazard, an understanding of the applicability and limitations of the strategy, and thorough planning. The human and institutional components leading to successful application can be even more important: engagement of all stakeholders in hazard education and risk-reduction planning; good communication of hazard and risk information among scientists, emergency managers, elected officials, and the at-risk public during crisis and non-crisis periods; sustained response training; and adequate funding for risk-reduction efforts. This paper reviews a number of methods for lahar-hazard risk reduction, examines the limitations and tradeoffs, and provides real-world examples of their application in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and in other volcanic regions of the world. An overriding theme is that lahar-hazard risk reduction cannot be effectively accomplished without the active, impartial involvement of volcano scientists, who are willing to assume educational, interpretive, and advisory roles to work in partnership with elected officials, emergency managers, and vulnerable communities.

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, G. [RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T. [ERRA, Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, L. [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

2013-07-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.; Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T.; Camarinopoulos, L.; Schubert, B.

2013-01-01

External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

Volcanic stratigraphy: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Martí, Joan; Groppelli, Gianluca; Brum da Silveira, Antonio

2018-05-01

Volcanic stratigraphy is a fundamental component of geological mapping in volcanic areas as it yields the basic criteria and essential data for identifying the spatial and temporal relationships between volcanic products and intra/inter-eruptive processes (earth-surface, tectonic and climatic), which in turn provides greater understanding of the geological evolution of a region. Establishing precise stratigraphic relationships in volcanic successions is not only essential for understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes and for predicting how they might behave in the future, but is also critical for establishing guidelines for exploring economic and energy resources associated with volcanic systems or for reconstructing the evolution of sedimentary basins in which volcanism has played a significant role. Like classical stratigraphy, volcanic stratigraphy should also be defined using a systematic methodology that can provide an organised and comprehensive description of the temporal and spatial evolution of volcanic terrain. This review explores different methods employed in studies of volcanic stratigraphy, examines four case studies that use differing stratigraphic approaches, and recommends methods for using systematic volcanic stratigraphy based on the application of the concepts of traditional stratigraphy but adapted to the needs of volcanological environment.

The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

2017-07-01

Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

Volcanic Eruption: Students Develop a Contingency Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Meisinger, Philipp; Wittlich, Christian

2013-04-01

, causing a blockage and afflux of the Rhine, which, due to the given conditions of a very narrow valley, would lead to excessive flooding affecting even the greater Rhine-Main-region. Not to mention the consequences of a pyroclastic flow, dropping volcanic bombs and further hazardous/disastrous consequences. In comparison to other "potentially active" or "active volcanoes", e.g. the Vesuvius, the Laacher See is scarcely monitored and according to recent publications poorly analyzed in terms of contingency and evacuation plans. This offers space for critical analysis and creative solutions to an existing problem. Short: We need geographers and their knowledge to provide help. Given these facts, the Laacher See could be the layout for a very interesting geography project bringing together previously gained knowledge and understanding of volcanic activities, their destructive powers, consequences and risks in case of an eruption in combination with their topographical characteristics. Your students thereby act the role of a geoscientist developing contingency plans and evacuation zones for the greater Laacher See area. This involves a detailed analysis of the topographical characteristics based on (classic) topographic maps or online via the use of a GIS (e.g. Google maps). In a second step students enlist the possible consequences they already know according to their range and copy them onto a transparency layer on the topographic map. Using such a layer technique students add population density, important topographic features and maybe even anticipated wind directions to their map. The information density and the specific layout of this map are thereby only determined by the student's previous knowledge, their personal abilities and skills and the amount of time provided. This offers the opportunities to even differentiate the task within your group and provide support adjusted to the individual students level. On the basis of their own thematic map your students should be

Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

2013-12-01

volcano operated by ERI, Tokyo University. In all cases, we could estimated volcanic gas compositions, such as CO2/SO2 ratios, but also found out that it is necessary to improve the techniques to avoid the contamination of the exhaust gases and to approach more concentrated part of the plume. It was also revealed that the aerial measurements have an advantage of the stable background. The error of the volcanic gas composition estimates are largely due to the large fluctuation of the atmospheric H2O and CO2 concentrations near the ground. The stable atmospheric background obtained by the UAV measurements enables accurate estimate of the volcanic gas compositions. One of the most successful measurements was that on May 18, 2011 at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano during repeating Vulcanian eruption stage. The major component composition was obtained as H2O=97, CO2=1.5, SO2=0.2, H2S=0.24, H2=0.006 mol%; the high CO2 contents suggests relatively deep source of the magma degassing and the apparent equilibrium temperature obtained as 400°C indicates that the gas was cooled during ascent to the surface. The volcanic plume measurement with UAV will become an important tool for the volcano monitoring that provides important information to understand eruption processes.

Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruce M. Crowe; Frank V. Perry; Greg A. Valentine; Lynn M. Bowker

1998-12-01

This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is

The attenuation of seismic intensity in the Etna region and comparison with other Italian volcanic districts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Tuvè

2006-06-01

Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the intensity attenuation in the Etna and other Italian volcanic districts, was performed using the most recent and complete intensity datasets. Attenuation laws were derived through empirical models fitting ?I (the difference between epicentral I0 and site Ix intensities average values versus hypocentral site distances by the least-square method. The huge amount of data available for the Etna area allowed us to elaborate bi-linear and logarithmic attenuation models, also taking source effects into account. Furthermore, the coefficients of the Grandori formulation have been re-calculated to verify the ones previously defined for seismic hazard purposes. Among the tested relationships, the logarithmic one is simple and fairly stable, so it was also adopted for the other volcanic Italian areas. The analysis showed different attenuation trends: on the one hand, Etna and Ischia show the highest decay of intensity (?I=4 in the first 20 km; on the contrary, the Aeolian Islands and Albani Hills present a slight intensity attenuation (?I=2 at 20 km from the hypocentre; finally, Vesuvius seems to have an intermediate behaviour between the two groups. The proposed regionalization gives a significantly better image of near-field damage in volcanic regions and is easily applicable to probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

Using faults for PSHA in a volcanic context: the Etna case (Southern Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Gee, Robin; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

At Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy), recurrent volcano-tectonic earthquakes affect the urbanised areas, with an overall population of about 400,000 and with important infrastructures and lifelines. For this reason, seismic hazard analyses have been undertaken in the last decade focusing on the capability of local faults to generate damaging earthquakes especially in the short-term (30-5 yrs); these results have to be intended as complementary to the regulatory seismic hazard maps, and devoted to establish priority in the seismic retrofitting of the exposed municipalities. Starting from past experience, in the framework of the V3 Project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Defense we performed a fully probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by using an original definition of seismic sources and ground-motion prediction equations specifically derived for this volcanic area; calculations are referred to a new brand topographic surface (Mt. Etna reaches more than 3,000 m in elevation, in less than 20 km from the coast), and to both Poissonian and time-dependent occurrence models. We present at first the process of defining seismic sources that includes individual faults, seismic zones and gridded seismicity; they are obtained by integrating geological field data with long-term (the historical macroseismic catalogue) and short-term earthquake data (the instrumental catalogue). The analysis of the Frequency Magnitude Distribution identifies areas in the volcanic complex, with a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship representative of different dynamic processes. Then, we discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults estimated by using a purely geologic approach. This analysis has been carried out through the software code FISH, a Matlab® tool developed to turn fault data representative of the seismogenic process into hazard models. The utilization of a magnitude-size scaling relationship

DomeHaz, a Global Hazards Database: Understanding Cyclic Dome-forming Eruptions, Contributions to Hazard Assessments, and Potential for Future Use and Integration with Existing Cyberinfrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Ogburn, S. E.; Calder, E.; Loughlin, S.

2013-12-01

cyclicity of dome growth and pauses, the difficulty in defining eruptions at cyclically active lava domes, the identification of patterns in eruptive frequency between volcanoes of differing composition, the relationship between extrusion rates and large explosions, and the timing of large explosions in relation to dome growth. Where possible, we link these global observations to conceptual and physical models of volcanic processes. We also investigate the production of decision trees from the database for hazard analysis. Continuation of this work will include the completion of a relational database, which will be continuously maintained and updated as part of the Global Volcano Model (GVM) project. We envision DomeHaz being linked to other databases such as the mass-flows database FlowDat, and the Smithsonian GVP catalog of eruptions. A key component in creating a robust cyberinfrastructure is high-quality and complete data sets provided by the community and compiled into databases, which ideally exist as part of an informational network. This paper serves as a call for participation from individuals, research groups, and monitoring bodies for generating a global database on the hazards associated with lava dome eruptions.

Lunar cryptomaria: Physical characteristics, distribution, and implications for ancient volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Whitten, Jennifer L.; Head, James W.

2015-02-01

Cryptomaria, lunar volcanic deposits obscured by crater and basin impact ejecta, can provide important information about the thermal and volcanic history of the Moon. The timing of cryptomare deposition has implications for the duration and flux of mare basalt volcanism. In addition, knowing the distribution of cryptomaria can provide information about mantle convection and lunar magma ocean solidification. Here we use multiple datasets (e.g., M3, LOLA, LROC, Diviner) to undertake a global analysis to identify the general characteristics (e.g., topography, surface roughness, rock abundance, albedo, etc.) of lunar light plains in order to better distinguish between ancient volcanic deposits (cryptomaria) and impact basin and crater ejecta deposits. We find 20 discrete regions of cryptomaria, covering approximately 2% of the Moon, which increase the total area covered by mare volcanism to 18% of the lunar surface. Comparisons of light plains deposits indicate that the two deposit types (volcanic and impact-produced) are best distinguished by mineralogic data. On the basis of cryptomaria locations, the distribution of mare volcanism does not appear to have changed in the time prior to its exposed mare basalt distribution. There are several hypotheses explaining the distribution of mare basalts, which include the influence of crustal thickness, mantle convection patterns, asymmetric distribution of source regions, KREEP distribution, and the influence of a proposed Procellarum impact basin. The paucity of farside mare basalts means that multiple factors, such as crustal thickness variations and mantle convection, are likely to play a role in mare basalt emplacement.

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project

Science.gov (United States)

Ogburn, Sarah; Harpel, Chris; Pesicek, Jeremy; Wellik, Jay; Pallister, John; Wright, Heather

2016-04-01

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the U.S. Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) with the goal of enhancing VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The EFIS project seeks to: (1) Move away from relying on the collective memory to probability estimation using databases (2) Create databases useful for pattern recognition and for answering common VDAP questions; e.g. how commonly does unrest lead to eruption? how commonly do phreatic eruptions portend magmatic eruptions and what is the range of antecedence times? (3) Create generic probabilistic event trees using global data for different volcano 'types' (4) Create background, volcano-specific, probabilistic event trees for frequently active or particularly hazardous volcanoes in advance of a crisis (5) Quantify and communicate uncertainty in probabilities A major component of the project is the global EFIS relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest, including the timing of phreatic eruptions, column heights, eruptive products, etc. and will be initially populated using chronicles of eruptive activity from Alaskan volcanic eruptions in the GeoDIVA database (Cameron et al. 2013). This database module allows us to query across other global databases such as the WOVOdat database of monitoring data and the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database of eruptive histories and volcano information. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also serves as a request for feedback from the community.

Self-potential anomalies in some Italian volcanic areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Silenziario

1996-06-01

Full Text Available The study of Self-Potential (SP space and time variations in volcanic areas may provide useful information on both the geometrical structure of the volcanic apparatuses and the dynamical behaviour of the feeding and uprising systems. In this paper, the results obtained on the islands of Vulcano (Eolian arc and Ponza (Pontine archipelago and on the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complex are shown. On the island of Vulcano and on the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius apparatus areal SP surveys were performed with the aim of evidencing anomalies closely associated to the zones of major volcanic activity. On the island of Vulcano a profile across the fumaroles along the crater rim of the Fossa Cone was also carried out in order to have a direct relationship between fumarolic fracture migration and flow rate and SP anomaly space and time variations. The areal survey on the island of Ponza, which is considered an inactive area, is assumed as a reference test with which to compare the amplitude and pattern of the anomalies in the active areas. A tentative interpretation of the SP anomalies in volcanic areas is suggested in terms of electrokinetic phenomena, related to the movement of fluids of both volcanic and non-volcanic origin.

Volcanic features of Io

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.

1979-01-01

The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)

2014-08-15

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Brand, B. D.; Gravley, D.; Clarke, A. B.; Bloomberg, S. H.

2012-12-01

The most dangerous phenomena associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions are dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These are turbulent, ground-hugging sediment gravity currents that travel radially away from the explosive center at up to 100 m/s. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, consists of approximately 50 eruptive centers, at least 39 of which have had explosive phreatomagmatic behaviour. A primary concern for future AVF eruptions is the impact of dilute PDCs in and around the Auckland area. We combine field observations from the Maungataketake tuff ring, which has one of the best exposures of dilute PDC deposits in the AVF, with a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, steady-state, depth-averaged dilute PDC (modified from Bursik and Woods, 1996 Bull Volcanol 58:175-193). The model allows us to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact on societal infrastructure of dilute PDCs from a future AVF eruption. The lower portion of the Maungataketake tuff ring pyroclastic deposits contains trunks, limbs and fragments of Podocarp trees (strength of the wood, we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) of 10-75 kPa are necessary to topple trees of this size and composition. Thus the two main criteria for model success based on the field evidence include (a) Pdyn must be >10 kPa nearer than 0.9 km to the vent, and 35 kPa can be expected within 3 km from source, ensuring complete destruction of the area; Pdyn > 15 kPa up to 5 km from source, resulting in heavy structural damage to most buildings and near destruction of weaker buildings; and Pdyn <10 kPa at ~6 km from source, resulting in severe damage to weaker structures at least up to this distance. This exercise illustrates our ability to combine field measurements with numerical techniques to explore controlling parameters of dilute PDC dynamics. These tools can be used to understand and estimate the damage potential and

Geophysics in the monitoring of natural hazards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arafin, S.

2005-01-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions strike every year, killing thousands of people and destroying property worth billions of dollars. Some of these can be a surprise like the 2004 Asian Tsunami. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides are usually grouped into what are termed 'geo-hazards'. Because mud volcanoes do not pose any serious threat to human life and property, they are the least studied of all geo-hazards. However, the 1997 explosive eruption of the Piparo mud volcano in Trinidad, West Indies caught many scientists and planners by surprise. It was the strongest eruption of a mud volcano ever recorded, causing extensive damage to the small town of Piparo. A description of the 1997 eruption of the Piparo mud volcano and the associated land deformation, together with a three-dimensional gravity modeling of the gravitational anomaly of the nearby Tabaquite mud volcano have been presented. From the modeling, the geometry of the mud volcano has been deciphered, and it has been shown that a large, dynamic density contrast exists at the Tabaquite volcano. The existence of a large dynamic density contrast indicates that the gravity method can be used as a potential tool for monitoring mud volcanoes. (author)

The 3D Elevation Program—Landslide recognition, hazard assessment, and mitigation support

Science.gov (United States)

Lukas, Vicki; Carswell, Jr., William J.

2017-01-27

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Program conducts landslide hazard assessments, pursues landslide investigations and forecasts, provides technical assistance to respond to landslide emergencies, and engages in outreach. All of these activities benefit from the availability of high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) elevation information in the form of light detection and ranging (lidar) data and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) data. Research on landslide processes addresses critical questions of where and when landslides are likely to occur as well as their size, speed, and effects. This understanding informs the development of methods and tools for hazard assessment and situational awareness used to guide efforts to avoid or mitigate landslide impacts. Such research is essential for the USGS to provide improved information on landslide potential associated with severe storms, earthquakes, volcanic activity, coastal wave erosion, and wildfire burn areas.Decisionmakers in government and the private sector increasingly depend on information the USGS provides before, during, and following disasters so that communities can live, work, travel, and build safely. The USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) provides the programmatic infrastructure to generate and supply lidar-derived superior terrain data to address landslide applications and a wide range of other urgent needs nationwide. By providing data to users, 3DEP reduces users’ costs and risks and allows them to concentrate on their mission objectives. 3DEP includes (1) data acquisition partnerships that leverage funding, (2) contracts with experienced private mapping firms, (3) technical expertise, lidar data standards, and specifications, and (4) most important, public access to high-quality 3D elevation data.

Residential and service-population exposure to multiple natural hazards in the Mount Hood region of Clackamas County, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Mathie, Amy M.; Wood, Nathan

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to document residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards in the rural communities of Clackamas County, Oregon, near Mount Hood. The Mount Hood region of Clackamas County has a long history of natural events that have impacted its small, tourism-based communities. To support preparedness and emergency-management planning in the region, a geospatial analysis of population exposure was used to determine the number and type of residents and service populations in flood-, wildfire-, and volcano-related hazard zones. Service populations are a mix of residents and tourists temporarily benefitting from local services, such as retail, education, or recreation. In this study, service population includes day-use visitors at recreational sites, overnight visitors at hotels and resorts, children at schools, and community-center visitors. Although the heavily-forested, rural landscape suggests few people are in the area, there are seasonal peaks of thousands of visitors to the region. “Intelligent” dasymetric mapping efforts using 30-meter resolution land-cover imagery and U.S. Census Bureau data proved ineffective at adequately capturing either the spatial distribution or magnitude of population at risk. Consequently, an address-point-based hybrid dasymetric methodology of assigning population to the physical location of buildings mapped with a global positioning system was employed. The resulting maps of the population (1) provide more precise spatial distributions for hazard-vulnerability assessments, (2) depict appropriate clustering due to higher density structures, such as apartment complexes and multi-unit commercial buildings, and (3) provide new information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of people utilizing services within the study area. Estimates of population exposure to flooding, wildfire, and volcanic hazards were determined by using overlay analysis in a geographic information system

Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear-waste repository in the southern Great Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Carr, W.J.

1980-01-01

Volcanic hazard studies of the southern Great Basin are being conducted on behalf of the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations program. Current work is chiefly concerned with characterizing the geology, chronology, and tectonic setting of Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism in the Nevada Test Site region, and assessing volcanic risk through consequence and probability studies, particularly with respect to a potential site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site. Young ( - 6 volcanic events per year. Based on this rate, the annual probability of disruption of a 10-km 2 repository located within a 25-km radius circle centered at Yucca Mountain, southwestern Nevada Test Site, is 10 - 8 . A larger area, 50-km radius, yields a disruption probability of 10 - 9 per year. Current tectonic zonation studies of the southern Great Basin will reduce the calculated probabilities of basaltic eruption for certain areas. 21 references, 3 figures

Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Siebert, L.; Hubbard, B.; Sheridan, M.F.; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2006-01-01

The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic

Lidar detection of carbon dioxide in volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorani, Luca; Santoro, Simone; Parracino, Stefano; Maio, Giovanni; Del Franco, Mario; Aiuppa, Alessandro

2015-06-01

Volcanic gases give information on magmatic processes. In particular, anomalous releases of carbon dioxide precede volcanic eruptions. Up to now, this gas has been measured in volcanic plumes with conventional measurements that imply the severe risks of local sampling and can last many hours. For these reasons and for the great advantages of laser sensing, the thorough development of volcanic lidar has been undertaken at the Diagnostics and Metrology Laboratory (UTAPRAD-DIM) of the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA). In fact, lidar profiling allows one to scan remotely volcanic plumes in a fast and continuous way, and with high spatial and temporal resolution. Two differential absorption lidar instruments will be presented in this paper: BILLI (BrIdge voLcanic LIdar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser, double grating dye laser, difference frequency mixing (DFM) and optical parametric amplifier (OPA), and VULLI (VULcamed Lidar), based on injection seeded Nd:YAG laser and optical parametric oscillator (OPO). The first one is funded by the ERC (European Research Council) project BRIDGE and the second one by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund) project VULCAMED. While VULLI has not yet been tested in a volcanic site, BILLI scanned the gas emitted by Pozzuoli Solfatara (Campi Flegrei volcanic area, Naples, Italy) during a field campaign carried out from 13 to 17 October 2014. Carbon dioxide concentration maps were retrieved remotely in few minutes in the crater area. Lidar measurements were in good agreement with well-established techniques, based on different operating principles. To our knowledge, it is the first time that carbon dioxide in a volcanic plume is retrieved by lidar, representing the first direct measurement of this kind ever performed on an active volcano and showing the high potential of laser remote sensing in geophysical research.

Delineation of a volcanic ash body using electrical resistivity profiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xia, Jianghai; Ludvigson, Greg; Miller, Richard D; Mayer, Lindsay; Haj, Adel

2010-01-01

Four lines of electrical resistivity profiling (ERP) were performed to define the extent of a shallow Quaternary volcanic ash deposit being mined in the United States. Inversion results of ERP proved suitable for defining the thickness and lateral extent of the volcanic ash deposit at this testing site. These interpretations were confirmed by shallow borehole drilling. The model sensitivity information indicates that inverted models possess sufficient resolving power down to a depth of 7 m and are fairly consistent in terms of horizontal resolution along the four ERP lines. The bottom of most of the volcanic ash deposit in the study area is less than 7 m in depth. Based on synthesis of the ERP and drill information, the limits of the mineable ash bed resources were clearly defined. Moreover, by integrating the ERP results with a minimal number of optimally placed borings, the volume of the volcanic ash deposit was established at a lesser cost, and with greater accuracy than would be possible with a traditionally designed grid drilling programme

A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, Chih-Hsiang

1994-01-01

Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP)

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy - Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

Science.gov (United States)

Peruzza, Laura; Azzaro, Raffaele; Gee, Robin; D'Amico, Salvatore; Langer, Horst; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Pace, Bruno; Pagani, Marco; Panzera, Francesco; Ordaz, Mario; Suarez, Miguel Leonardo; Tusa, Giuseppina

2017-11-01

This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017) and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude-scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014). Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent) and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M > 6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M risk reduction.

Earth Hazards Consortium: a Unique Approach to Student-Centered Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, C. P.; Granados, H. D.; Durant, A.; Wolf, R. E.; Girard, G.; Javier, I. H.; Cisneros, M.; Rose, W.; Sánchez, S. S.; Stix, J.

2006-12-01

The Earth Hazards (EHaz) consortium consists of six research-based universities in the United States (Michigan Technological University, University at Buffalo), Canada (McGill University, Simon Fraser University) and México (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Universidad de Colima) funded by the U.S. Department of Education, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, and the Secretaría de Educación Pública of México, as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The objective of the consortium is to expose students to a wide variety of scientific and cultural perspectives in the mitigation of geological natural hazards in North America. This four year program is multi-faceted, including student exchanges, graduate level, web-based courses in volcanology, and intensive group field trips. In 2005 to 2006, a total of 27 students were mobilized among the three countries. In this first year, the videoconferencing course focused on caldera supervolcanoes with weekly discussion leaders from various fields of volcanology. At the end of the course the students participated in a field trip to Long Valley and Yellowstone calderas. Also during the first year of the program, México hosted an International Course on Volcanic Hazards Map Construction. The course was attended by graduate students from Mexico and the United States, included lectures from noted guest speakers, and involved a field trip to Popocatepetl volcano. A student survey demonstrated that during the videoconferencing the students benefited by the weekly interaction with well- known volcanologists at the top of their field. Students who participated in the field trip benefited from an outstanding opportunity to link the theoretical concepts covered during the course with the field aspects of supervolcano systems, as well as the opportunity to network amongst their peers. Feedback from students who went abroad indicates that the program provided support for internship opportunities

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

2012-01-01

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

Waste management facilities cost information for hazardous waste. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.; Sherick, M.; Biagi, C.

1995-06-01

This report contains preconceptual designs and planning level life-cycle cost estimates for managing hazardous waste. The report's information on treatment, storage, and disposal modules can be integrated to develop total life-cycle costs for various waste management options. A procedure to guide the US Department of Energy and its contractor personnel in the use of cost estimation data is also summarized in this report

The Perception of Volcanic Risk in Kona Communities from Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Hawai`i

Science.gov (United States)

Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

2002-12-01

Hawai`i's coastal communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards as a consequence of increasing population and infrastructure. Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e., western side of the island) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes. The former has erupted thirty-nine times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during six of these, but last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualalai last erupted in c. 1800. The most recent eruptions at each volcano were damaging to society, but future eruptions would exact much greater impacts. The second largest city on the island, several resort complexes, and an international airport are located within 15 km of vents. Society's proximity to potential eruptive sources, a potential for relatively fast moving lavas, and the relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high school students and their parents, and the greater adult public (n=462). Using this data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception and perceptions as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average less than two-thirds of residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualalai could erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in under three hours. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent's community. Not unexpectedly, individual preparedness measures were found to be limited to simple tasks, while measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes were seldom adopted. Respondents exhibit an "unrealistic optimism bias" and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions rests primarily with officials. Hazard

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards in the Mount Jefferson Region, Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Walder, J.S.; Gardner, C.A.; Conrey, R.M.; Fisher, B.J.

2008-01-01

Mount Jefferson has erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, with its last eruptive episode during the last major glaciation which culminated about 15,000 years ago. Geologic evidence shows that Mount Jefferson is capable of large explosive eruptions. The largest such eruption occurred between 35,000 and 100,000 years ago. If Mount Jefferson erupts again, areas close to the eruptive vent will be severely affected, and even areas tens of kilometers (tens of miles) downstream along river valleys or hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) downwind may be at risk. Numerous small volcanoes occupy the area between Mount Jefferson and Mount Hood to the north, and between Mount Jefferson and the Three Sisters region to the south. These small volcanoes tend not to pose the far-reaching hazards associated with Mount Jefferson, but are nonetheless locally important. A concern at Mount Jefferson, but not at the smaller volcanoes, is the possibility that small-to-moderate sized landslides could occur even during periods of no volcanic activity. Such landslides may transform as they move into lahars (watery flows of rock, mud, and debris) that can inundate areas far downstream. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layer used to produce the Mount Jefferson volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 99-24 (Walder and others, 1999) is included in this data set. Both proximal and distal hazard zones were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various volcano hazard areas around the mountain.

Debris Avalanches and Debris Flows Transformed from Collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, México.

Science.gov (United States)

Capra, L.; Macias, J.; Scott, K.; Abrams, M.; Garduño, V.

2001-12-01

Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene time. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlated with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and north-east, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The different mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the case of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). Both debris-avalanches and debris-flows are volcanic hazards that occur from both active volcanoes, as well as those that are inactive or dormant volcanoes, and may by triggered by earthquakes, precipitation, or simple gravity. There will be no precursory warning in such non-volcanic cases.

Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, R.C.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fu, G.; Heemink, A.; Lu, S.; Segers, A.; Weber, K.; Lin, H.X.

2016-01-01

The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain,

Analysis on the Capacity Building Efforts for Mitigating Volcanic Risks during 2010 Eruption of Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SARI BAHAGIARTI KUSUMAYUDHA

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Mount Merapi is one of the most active volcanoes on the World erupted again during October to November 2010. Its climax activities happened on 5th November at 00.10 pm, with different type of eruption from Mount Merapi of last 50 years. Ordinary, Mount Merapi activity starts from lava dome development, followed by dome collapse to create pyroclastic flow. This specific character of eruption is called Merapi type. The pyroclastic flows at that time killed 341 people and buried many villages on the southeastern slope, while the secondary hazard of lahar destroyed many other human settlements and infrastructures on the western slope of the volcano. Actually, capacity building program in the areas of around Mount Merapi has been established since more than 15 years ago. In most villages, there are community associations that well trained on volcanic hazard mitigation and early warning system. The association name is Association of Mountains Belt of Merapi. Map of Mount Merapi hazards was also already set by the Center of Volcanology and Geologic Disaster Mitigation. Unfortunately, human are not able to order the nature. The character of Mount Merapi eruption in the year 2010 was inconsistent. There was much higher gas pressure, much longer distant of pyroclastic flow, and much greater volume of volcanic material poured from the crater. This made people and stake holders very astonished in handling the evacuation. However, a socio-cultural factor in this respect is that the local people and agriculturists view Mount Merapi as a God which gives them fertile soil and water for agriculture and are reluctant to move away even under an impending threat of a volcanic hazard. This mind-set of people is a challenge in capacity building as the people prefer in-situ protective measures rather than moving away.

Volcanology and hazards of phreatomagmatic basaltic eruptions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmith, Johanne

Iceland is one of the most active terrestrial volcanic regions on Earth with an average of more than 20 eruptions per century. Around 80% of all events are tephra generating explosive eruptions, but less than 10 % of all known tephra layers have been mapped. Recent hazard assessment models show...... that the two key parameters for hazard assessment modeling are total grain size distribution (TGSD) and eruptive style. These two parameters have been determined for even fewer eruptive events in Iceland. One of the most hazardous volcanoes in Iceland is Katla and no data set of TGSD or other eruptive...... parameters exist. Katla has not erupted for 99 years, but at least 2 of the 20 eruptions since the settlement of Iceland in 871 have reached Northern Europe as visible tephra fall. These eruptions occurred in 1755 and 1625 and remain enigmatic both in terms of actual size and eruption dynamics. This work...

Sources of Quaternary volcanism in the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, Madagascar

Science.gov (United States)

Rasoazanamparany, C.; Widom, E.; Kuentz, D. C.; Raharimahefa, T.; Rakotondrazafy, F. M. A.; Rakotondravelo, K. M.

2017-12-01

We present new major and trace element and Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope data for Quaternary basaltic lavas and tephra from the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, representing the most recent volcanism in Madagascar. Mafic magmas from Itasy and Ankaratra exhibit significant inter- and intra-volcanic field geochemical heterogeneity. The Itasy eruptive products range in composition from foidite to phonotephrite whereas Ankaratra lavas range from basanite to trachybasalts. Trace element signatures of samples from both volcanic fields are very similar to those of ocean island basalts (OIB), with significant enrichment in Nb and Ta, depletion in Rb, Cs, and K, and relatively high Nb/U and Ce/Pb. However, the Itasy volcanic rocks show enrichment relative to those of Ankaratra in most incompatible elements, indicative of a more enriched source and/or lower degrees of partial melting. Significant inter- and intra-volcanic field heterogeneity is also observed in Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope signatures. The Itasy volcanic rocks generally have less radiogenic Sr and Nd isotopic ratios but more radiogenic Pb isotopic signatures than the Ankaratra volcanic field. Together, the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic rocks form a well-defined negative correlation in Sr vs. Pb isotopes that could be attributed to lithospheric contamination or variable degrees of mixing between distinct mantle sources. However, the lack of correlation between isotopes and indices of crustal contamination (e.g. MgO and Nb/U) are inconsistent with shallow lithospheric contamination, and instead suggest mixing between compositionally distinct mantle sources. Furthermore, although Sr-Pb isotope systematics are apparently consistent with mixing between two different sources, distinct trends in Sr vs. Nd isotopes displayed by samples from Itasy and Ankaratra, respectively, argue for more complex source mixing involving three or more sources. The current data demonstrate that although the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic

Can rain cause volcanic eruptions?

Science.gov (United States)

Mastin, Larry G.

1993-01-01

Volcanic eruptions are renowned for their violence and destructive power. This power comes ultimately from the heat and pressure of molten rock and its contained gases. Therefore we rarely consider the possibility that meteoric phenomena, like rainfall, could promote or inhibit their occurrence. Yet from time to time observers have suggested that weather may affect volcanic activity. In the late 1800's, for example, one of the first geologists to visit the island of Hawaii, J.D. Dana, speculated that rainfall influenced the occurrence of eruptions there. In the early 1900's, volcanologists suggested that some eruptions from Mount Lassen, Calif., were caused by the infiltration of snowmelt into the volcano's hot summit. Most such associations have not been provable because of lack of information; others have been dismissed after careful evaluation of the evidence.

The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2008-03-01

This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political

One hundred volatile years of volcanic gas studies at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: Chapter 7 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Sutton, A.J.; Elias, Tamar; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

The first volcanic gas studies in Hawai‘i, beginning in 1912, established that volatile emissions from Kīlauea Volcano contained mostly water vapor, in addition to carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. This straightforward discovery overturned a popular volatile theory of the day and, in the same action, helped affirm Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr.’s, vision of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) as a preeminent place to study volcanic processes. Decades later, the environmental movement produced a watershed of quantitative analytical tools that, after being tested at Kīlauea, became part of the regular monitoring effort at HVO. The resulting volatile emission and fumarole chemistry datasets are some of the most extensive on the planet. These data indicate that magma from the mantle enters the shallow magmatic system of Kīlauea sufficiently oversaturated in CO2 to produce turbulent flow. Passive degassing at Kīlauea’s summit that occurred from 1983 through 2007 yielded CO2-depleted, but SO2- and H2O-rich, rift eruptive gases. Beginning with the 2008 summit eruption, magma reaching the East Rift Zone eruption site became depleted of much of its volatile content at the summit eruptive vent before transport to Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. The volatile emissions of Hawaiian volcanoes are halogen-poor, relative to those of other basaltic systems. Information gained regarding intrinsic gas solubilities at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, as well as the pressure-controlled nature of gas release, have provided useful tools for tracking eruptive activity. Regular CO2-emission-rate measurements at Kīlauea’s summit, together with surface-deformation and other data, detected an increase in deep magma supply more than a year before a corresponding surge in effusive activity. Correspondingly, HVO routinely uses SO2 emissions to study shallow eruptive processes and effusion rates. HVO gas studies and Kīlauea’s long-running East Rift Zone eruption also demonstrate that volatile emissions can

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

2017-01-01

The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

2005-01-01

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of tectonism and volcanism on a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

Most estimates of the time required for safe isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 years. For such long time spans, it is necessary to assess the potential effects of geologic processes such as volcanism and tectonic activity on the integrity of geologic repositories. Predictions of geologic phenomena can be based on probabilistic models, which assume a random distribution of events. The necessary historic and geologic records are rarely available to provide an adequate data base for such predictions. The observed distribution of volcanic and tectonic activity is not random, and appears to be controlled by extremely complex deterministic processes. The advent of global plate tectonic theory in the past two decades has been a giant step toward understanding these processes. At each potential repository site, volcanic and tectonic processes should be evaluated to provide the most thorough possible understanding of those deterministic processes. Based on this knowledge, judgements will have to be made as to whether or not the volcanic and tectonic processes pose unacceptable risk to the integrity of the repository. This report describes the potential hazards associated with volcanism and tectonism, and the means for evaluating these processes

Geothermal and volcanism in west Java

Science.gov (United States)

Setiawan, I.; Indarto, S.; Sudarsono; Fauzi I, A.; Yuliyanti, A.; Lintjewas, L.; Alkausar, A.; Jakah

2018-02-01

Indonesian active volcanoes extend from Sumatra, Jawa, Bali, Lombok, Flores, North Sulawesi, and Halmahera. The volcanic arc hosts 276 volcanoes with 29 GWe of geothermal resources. Considering a wide distribution of geothermal potency, geothermal research is very important to be carried out especially to tackle high energy demand in Indonesia as an alternative energy sources aside from fossil fuel. Geothermal potency associated with volcanoes-hosted in West Java can be found in the West Java segment of Sunda Arc that is parallel with the subduction. The subduction of Indo-Australian oceanic plate beneath the Eurasian continental plate results in various volcanic products in a wide range of geochemical and mineralogical characteristics. The geochemical and mineralogical characteristics of volcanic and magmatic rocks associated with geothermal systems are ill-defined. Comprehensive study of geochemical signatures, mineralogical properties, and isotopes analysis might lead to the understanding of how large geothermal fields are found in West Java compared to ones in Central and East Java. The result can also provoke some valuable impacts on Java tectonic evolution and can suggest the key information for geothermal exploration enhancement.

A Volcano Exploration Project Pu`u `O`o (VEPP) Exercise: Is Kilauea in Volcanic Unrest? (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, S. Y.

2010-12-01

Volcanic activity captures the interest and imagination of students at all stages in their education. Analysis of real data collected on active volcanoes can further serve to engage students in higher-level inquiry into the complicated physical processes associated with volcanic eruptions. This exercise takes advantage of both student fascination with volcanoes and the recognized benefits of incorporating real, internet-accessible data to achieve its goals of enabling students to: 1) navigate a scientific website; 2) describe the physical events that produce volcano monitoring data; 3) identify patterns in geophysical time-series and distinguish anomalies preceding and synchronous with eruptive events; 4) compare and contrast geophysical time series and 5) integrate diverse data sets to assess the eruptive state of Kilauea volcano. All data come from the VEPP website (vepp.wr.usgs.gov) which provides background information on the historic activity and volcano monitoring methods as well as near-real time volcano monitoring data from the Pu`u `O`o eruptive vent on Kilauea Volcano. This exercise, designed for geology majors, has students initially work individually to acquire basic skills with volcano monitoring data interpretation and then together in a jigsaw activity to unravel the events leading up to and culminating in the July 2007 volcanic episode. Based on patterns established prior to the July 2007 event, students examine real-time volcano monitoring data to evaluate the present activity level of Kilauea volcano. This exercise will be used for the first time in an upper division Geologic Hazards class in fall 2010 and lessons learned including an exercise assessment will be presented.

Information requirements for the Department of Energy Defense Programs' hazardous and mixed wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herron, S.A.

1987-01-01

This document contains viewgraphs from a presentation made to the DOE Low-Level Waste Management Conference in Denver, Colorado. The presentation described information and data base systems that describe hazardous and mixed waste treatment, storage, and disposal

Notification: Audit of Security Categorization for EPA Systems That Handle Hazardous Material Information

Science.gov (United States)

Project #OA-FY18-0089, January 8, 2018. The OIG plans to begin preliminary research to determine whether the EPA classified the sensitivity of data for systems that handle hazardous waste material information as prescribed by NIST.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against

The effect of the sea on hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei: a preliminary approach through the use of pyPHaz, an open tool to analyze and visualize probabilistic hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo

2014-05-01

Campi Flegrei (CF) is a large volcanic field located west of the Gulf of Naples, characterized by a wide and almost circular caldera which is partially submerged beneath the Gulf of Pozzuoli. It is known that the magma-water interaction is a key element to determine the character of submarine eruptions and their impact on the surrounding areas, but this phenomenon is still not well understood and it is rarely considered in hazard assessment. The aim of the present work is to present a preliminary study of the effect of the sea on the tephra fall hazard from CF on the municipality of Naples, by introducing a variability in the probability of tephra production according to the eruptive scale (defined on the basis of the erupted volume) and the depth of the opening submerged vents. Four different Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) models have been defined through the application of the model BET_VH at CF, by accounting for different modeling procedures and assumptions for the submerged part of the caldera. In particular, we take into account: 1) the effect of the sea as null, i.e. as if the water were not present; 2) the effect of the sea as a cap that totally blocks the explosivity of eruptions and consequently the tephra production; 3) an ensemble model between the two models described at the previous points 1) and 2); 4) a variable probability of tephra production depending on the depth of the submerged vent. The PVHA models are then input to pyPHaz, a tool developed and designed at INGV to visualize, analyze and merge into ensemble models PVHA's results and, potentially, any other kind of probabilistic hazard assessment, both natural and anthropic, in order to evaluate the importance of considering a variability among subaerial and submerged vents on tephra fallout hazard from CF in Naples. The analysis is preliminary and does not pretend to be exhaustive, but on one hand it represents a starting point for future works; on the other hand, it is a good

A risk-informed framework for establishing a beyond design basis safety basis for external hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amico, P. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Baltimore, MD (United States); Anoba, R. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Raleigh, NC (United States); Najafi, B. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Los Gatos, CA (United States)

2014-07-01

The events at Fukushima Daiichi taught us that meeting a deterministic design basis requirement for external hazards does not assure that the risk is low. As observed at the plant, the two primary reasons for this are failure cliffs above the design basis event and that combined hazard effects are not considered in design. Because the possible combinations of design basis exceedences and external hazard combinations are very large and complex, an approach focusing only on the most important ones is needed. For this reason, a risk informed approach is the most effective approach, which is discussed in this paper. (author)

From hot rocks to glowing avalanches: Numerical modelling of gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents and hazard maps at the Stromboli volcano (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Salvatici, Teresa; Di Roberto, Alessio; Di Traglia, Federico; Bisson, Marina; Morelli, Stefano; Fidolini, Francesco; Bertagnini, Antonella; Pompilio, Massimo; Hungr, Oldrich; Casagli, Nicola

2016-11-01

Gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can be produced by the collapse of volcanic crater rims or due to the gravitational instability of materials deposited in proximal areas during explosive activity. These types of PDCs, which are also known as ;glowing avalanches;, have been directly observed, and their deposits have been widely identified on the flanks of several volcanoes that are fed by mafic to intermediate magmas. In this research, the suitability of landslide numerical models for simulating gravity-induced PDCs to provide hazard assessments was tested. This work also presents the results of a back-analysis of three events that occurred in 1906, 1930 and 1944 at the Stromboli volcano by applying a depth-averaged 3D numerical code named DAN-3D. The model assumes a frictional internal rheology and a variable basal rheology (i.e., frictional, Voellmy and plastic). The numerical modelling was able to reproduce the gravity-induced PDCs' extension and deposit thicknesses to an order of magnitude of that reported in the literature. The best results when compared with field data were obtained using a Voellmy model with a frictional coefficient of f = 0.19 and a turbulence parameter ξ = 1000 m s- 1. The results highlight the suitability of this numerical code, which is generally used for landslides, to reproduce the destructive potential of these events in volcanic environments and to obtain information on hazards connected with explosive-related, mass-wasting phenomena in Stromboli Island and at volcanic systems characterized by similar phenomena.

When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 2: Computational implementation and first results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Peruzza

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the model implementation and presents results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for the Mt. Etna volcanic region in Sicily, Italy, considering local volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Working in a volcanic region presents new challenges not typically faced in standard PSHA, which are broadly due to the nature of the local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, the cone shape of the volcano and the attenuation properties of seismic waves in the volcanic region. These have been accounted for through the development of a seismic source model that integrates data from different disciplines (historical and instrumental earthquake datasets, tectonic data, etc.; presented in Part 1, by Azzaro et al., 2017 and through the development and software implementation of original tools for the computation, such as a new ground-motion prediction equation and magnitude–scaling relationship specifically derived for this volcanic area, and the capability to account for the surficial topography in the hazard calculation, which influences source-to-site distances. Hazard calculations have been carried out after updating the most recent releases of two widely used PSHA software packages (CRISIS, as in Ordaz et al., 2013; the OpenQuake engine, as in Pagani et al., 2014. Results are computed for short- to mid-term exposure times (10 % probability of exceedance in 5 and 30 years, Poisson and time dependent and spectral amplitudes of engineering interest. A preliminary exploration of the impact of site-specific response is also presented for the densely inhabited Etna's eastern flank, and the change in expected ground motion is finally commented on. These results do not account for M  >  6 regional seismogenic sources which control the hazard at long return periods. However, by focusing on the impact of M  <  6 local volcano-tectonic earthquakes, which dominate the hazard at the short- to mid-term exposure times considered

Atmospheric dispersion simulations of volcanic gas from Miyake Island by SPEEDI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Furuno, Akiko; Terada, Hiroaki; Umeyama, Nobuaki; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Chino, Masamichi

2001-03-01

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute is advancing the study for prediction of material circulation in the environment to cope with environmental pollution, based on SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) and WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of SPEEDI), which are originally developed aiming at real-time prediction of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive substances accidentally released from nuclear facility. As a part of this study, dispersion simulation of volcanic gas erupted from Miyake Island is put into practice. After the stench incident at the west Kanto District on 28 August 2000 caused by volcanic gas from Miyake Island, the following simulations dealing with atmospheric dispersion of volcanic gas from Miyake Island have been carried out. (1) Retrospective simulation to analyze examine the mechanism of the transport of high concentration volcanic gas to the west Kanto District on 28 August and to estimate the release amount of volcanic gas. (2) Retrospective simulation to analyze the mechanism of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kansai districts in a case of stench incident on 13 September. (3) Automated real-time simulation from the acquisition of meteorological data to the output of figures for operational prediction of the transport of volcanic gas to Tokai and Kanto districts. This report describes the details of these studies. (author)

Deformation of a Volcanic Edifice by Pore Pressurization: An Analog Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hyman, D.; Bursik, M. I.

2015-12-01

Volcanic flank destabilization, preceded by pressurization-induced surface deformation or weakening, presents a significant hazard at stratovolcanoes with ample supply of magmatic volatiles or preexisting hydrothermal systems as in Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions, respectively. Deformation is also an important sign of the nature of unrest at large calderas such as Long Valley, USA. Previous studies of volcanic inflation have focused primarily on the role of ascending magma. Relatively few studies have centered on surface deformation caused by pressurization from other volcanic fluids, including exsolved volatiles and pressurized hydrothermal systems. Most investigations of pore-pressurization have focused on numerical modelling of pore pressure transients. In analog experiments presented here, pore-filling fluids are injected into the base of a damp sand medium without exceeding dike propagating pressures, simulating the pressurization and bulk-permeable flow of volatile fluids through volcanic systems. The experiments examine surface deformation from a range of source depths and pressures as well as edifice geometries. 3D imaging is possible through use of the Microsoft® Kinect™ sensor, which allows for the generation of high-resolution, high frame rate, lab-scale Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). After initial processing to increase signal-to-noise ratio, surface deformation is measured using the DEM time-series generated by the Kinect™. Analysis of preliminary experiments suggests that inflation is possible up to approx. 10 % of pressure source depth. We also show that the Kinect™ sensor is useful in analog volcanological studies, an environment to which it is well-suited.

Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2017-12-01

Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

2009-12-01

Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

2009-12-01

study was completed to help improve volcanic ash detection, forecast models and warnings and to assist policy makers and the airlines to refine preparatory measures for the prevention of future volcanic ash encounters. It’s overarching objective is not only to reduce the potentially catastrophic loss of aircraft and human life posed by the volcanic ash hazard, but more often to mitigate the economic impact from flight delays and cancellations. In that vein, this project supports Sub Goal 3A of the NASA Strategic Plan, “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.”

Geomechanical characterization of volcanic rocks using empirical systems and data mining techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Miranda

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This paper tries to characterize volcanic rocks through the development and application of an empirical geomechanical system. Geotechnical information was collected from the samples from several Atlantic Ocean islands including Madeira, Azores and Canarias archipelagos. An empirical rock classification system termed as the volcanic rock system (VRS is developed and presented in detail. Results using the VRS are compared with those obtained using the traditional rock mass rating (RMR system. Data mining (DM techniques are applied to a database of volcanic rock geomechanical information from the islands. Different algorithms were developed and consequently approaches were followed for predicting rock mass classes using the VRS and RMR classification systems. Finally, some conclusions are drawn with emphasis on the fact that a better performance was achieved using attributes from VRS.

Quantitative volcanic susceptibility analysis of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands based on kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process

Science.gov (United States)

Galindo, I.; Romero, M. C.; Sánchez, N.; Morales, J. M.

2016-06-01

Risk management stakeholders in high-populated volcanic islands should be provided with the latest high-quality volcanic information. We present here the first volcanic susceptibility map of Lanzarote and Chinijo Islands and their submarine flanks based on updated chronostratigraphical and volcano structural data, as well as on the geomorphological analysis of the bathymetric data of the submarine flanks. The role of the structural elements in the volcanic susceptibility analysis has been reviewed: vents have been considered since they indicate where previous eruptions took place; eruptive fissures provide information about the stress field as they are the superficial expression of the dyke conduit; eroded dykes have been discarded since they are single non-feeder dykes intruded in deep parts of Miocene-Pliocene volcanic edifices; main faults have been taken into account only in those cases where they could modified the superficial movement of magma. The application of kernel density estimation via a linear diffusion process for the volcanic susceptibility assessment has been applied successfully to Lanzarote and could be applied to other fissure volcanic fields worldwide since the results provide information about the probable area where an eruption could take place but also about the main direction of the probable volcanic fissures.

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

Science.gov (United States)

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2015-01-01

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major

Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-03-01

Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-10-01

Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

Recent Progress in Understanding Natural-Hazards-Generated TEC Perturbations: Measurements and Modeling Results

Science.gov (United States)

Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Langley, R. B.

2015-12-01

Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface.We will show examples for early detection of natural hazards generated ionospheric signatures using ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will also discuss recent results from the U.S. Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation Network (READI) exercises utilizing our algorithms. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage. It is also expected that ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of existing natural hazards warning systems.

Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2017-07-26

This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

''Hazardous'' terminology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powers, J.

1991-01-01

A number of terms (e.g., ''hazardous chemicals,'' ''hazardous materials,'' ''hazardous waste,'' and similar nomenclature) refer to substances that are subject to regulation under one or more federal environmental laws. State laws and regulations also provide additional, similar, or identical terminology that may be confused with the federally defined terms. Many of these terms appear synonymous, and it easy to use them interchangeably. However, in a regulatory context, inappropriate use of narrowly defined terms can lead to confusion about the substances referred to, the statutory provisions that apply, and the regulatory requirements for compliance under the applicable federal statutes. This information Brief provides regulatory definitions, a brief discussion of compliance requirements, and references for the precise terminology that should be used when referring to ''hazardous'' substances regulated under federal environmental laws. A companion CERCLA Information Brief (EH-231-004/0191) addresses ''toxic'' nomenclature

Creation of a common information system on the Republic of Kazakhstan radiation hazardous objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kadyrzhanov, K.K.; Kuterbekov, K.A.; Lukashenko, S.N.; Morenko, V.S.; Glushchenko, V.N.

2005-01-01

Works on creation of a common information system on the Republic of Kazakhstan territory radiation hazardous objects for providing of radiation situation control and stewardship decision making under nature-conservative measures conducting are considered. The information system is forming on the base of up-to-date GIS system - ArcGIS - and incorporates two databases - geographical and attributive

3-D high-speed imaging of volcanic bomb trajectory in basaltic explosive eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Gaudin, D.; Taddeucci, J; Houghton, Bruce F.; Orr, Tim R.; Andronico, D.; Del Bello, E.; Kueppers, U.; Ricci, T.; Scarlato, P.

2016-01-01

Imaging, in general, and high speed imaging in particular are important emerging tools for the study of explosive volcanic eruptions. However, traditional 2-D video observations cannot measure volcanic ejecta motion toward and away from the camera, strongly hindering our capability to fully determine crucial hazard-related parameters such as explosion directionality and pyroclasts' absolute velocity. In this paper, we use up to three synchronized high-speed cameras to reconstruct pyroclasts trajectories in three dimensions. Classical stereographic techniques are adapted to overcome the difficult observation conditions of active volcanic vents, including the large number of overlapping pyroclasts which may change shape in flight, variable lighting and clouding conditions, and lack of direct access to the target. In particular, we use a laser rangefinder to measure the geometry of the filming setup and manually track pyroclasts on the videos. This method reduces uncertainties to 10° in azimuth and dip angle of the pyroclasts, and down to 20% in the absolute velocity estimation. We demonstrate the potential of this approach by three examples: the development of an explosion at Stromboli, a bubble burst at Halema'uma'u lava lake, and an in-flight collision between two bombs at Stromboli.

Toward risk assessment 2.0: Safety supervisory control and model-based hazard monitoring for risk-informed safety interventions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Favarò, Francesca M.; Saleh, Joseph H.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a staple in the engineering risk community, and it has become to some extent synonymous with the entire quantitative risk assessment undertaking. Limitations of PRA continue to occupy researchers, and workarounds are often proposed. After a brief review of this literature, we propose to address some of PRA's limitations by developing a novel framework and analytical tools for model-based system safety, or safety supervisory control, to guide safety interventions and support a dynamic approach to risk assessment and accident prevention. Our work shifts the emphasis from the pervading probabilistic mindset in risk assessment toward the notions of danger indices and hazard temporal contingency. The framework and tools here developed are grounded in Control Theory and make use of the state-space formalism in modeling dynamical systems. We show that the use of state variables enables the definition of metrics for accident escalation, termed hazard levels or danger indices, which measure the “proximity” of the system state to adverse events, and we illustrate the development of such indices. Monitoring of the hazard levels provides diagnostic information to support both on-line and off-line safety interventions. For example, we show how the application of the proposed tools to a rejected takeoff scenario provides new insight to support pilots’ go/no-go decisions. Furthermore, we augment the traditional state-space equations with a hazard equation and use the latter to estimate the times at which critical thresholds for the hazard level are (b)reached. This estimation process provides important prognostic information and produces a proxy for a time-to-accident metric or advance notice for an impending adverse event. The ability to estimate these two hazard coordinates, danger index and time-to-accident, offers many possibilities for informing system control strategies and improving accident prevention and risk mitigation

Mauna Loa--history, hazards and risk of living with the world's largest volcano

Science.gov (United States)

Trusdell, Frank A.

2012-01-01

Mauna Loa on the Island Hawaiʻi is the world’s largest volcano. People residing on its flanks face many hazards that come with living on or near an active volcano, including lava flows, explosive eruptions, volcanic smog, damaging earthquakes, and local tsunami (giant seawaves). The County of Hawaiʻi (Island of Hawaiʻi) is the fastest growing County in the State of Hawaii. Its expanding population and increasing development mean that risk from volcano hazards will continue to grow. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) closely monitor and study Mauna Loa Volcano to enable timely warning of hazardous activity and help protect lives and property.

Application of ASAR-ENVISAT Data for Monitoring Andean Volcanic Activity : Results From Lastarria-Azufre Volcanic Complex (Chile-Argentina)

Science.gov (United States)

Froger, J.; Remy, D.; Bonvalot, S.; Franco Guerra, M.

2005-12-01

Since the pioneer study on Mount Etna by Massonnet et al., in 1995, several works have illustrated the promising potentiality of Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (INSAR) for the monitoring of volcanoes. In the case of wide, remote or hazardous volcanic areas, in particular, INSAR represents a safer and more economic way to acquire measurements than from ground based geodetic networks. Here we present the preliminary results of an interferometric survey made with ASAR-ENVISAT data on a selection of South American volcanoes where deformation signals had been previously evidenced or are expected. An interesting result is the detection of a present-day active ground deformation on the Azufre-Lastarria area (Chile-Argentina) indicating that process, identified during 1998-2000 by Pritchard and Simmons (2004) from ERS data, is still active. The phase signal visible on ASAR interferograms (03/2003-06/2005) is roughly elliptical with a 45 km NNE-SSW major axis. Its amplitude increases as a function of time and is compatible with ground uplift in the line of sight of the satellite. The ASAR time series (up to 840 days, 7 ASAR images) indicates variable deformation rate that might confirm the hypothesis of a non uniform deformation process. We investigated the origin and the significance of the deformation using various source modelling strategies (analytical and numerical). The observed deformation can be explained by the infilling of an elliptical magmatic reservoir lying between 7 and 10 km depth. The deformation could represent the first stage of a new caldera forming as it is correlated with a large, although subtle, topographic depression surrounded by a crown of monogenetic centers. A short wavelength inflation has also been detected on Lastaria volcano. It could result from the on-going infilling of a small subsurface magmatic reservoir, eventually supplied by the deeper one. All these observations point out the need of a closer monitoring of this area in

The Lanzarote Geodynamic Laboratory: new capabilities for monitoring of volcanic activity at Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Arnoso, J.; Vélez, E. J.; Soler, V.; Montesinos, F. G.; Benavent, M.

2012-04-01

manifestations at the surface level, and to compare geodynamic processes associated with an active area of the Earth's crust. In turn, the results obtained can provide new inputs for studying precursor of volcanic activity and also contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation. The LGL aims to be a permanent status of renewal, using new technologies for data recording and real time transmission, as well as for testing new sensors, scientific equipment and observational techniques related to monitoring and observation of volcanic activity. All these capabilities are necessary when high-resolution ground based observations must provide us the basis for studying the sources of volcanic deformation. The laboratory is thus open to support and to enhance the collaboration among scientists, as well as national and international institutions involved in research at active volcanic areas.

Center for volcanic and tectonic studies, Department of Geoscience, Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV. Annual report No. 69, October 1, 1991--September 30, 1992

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, E.I.

1992-01-01

The annual report of the Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, maps, and reprints that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1991 and December 31, 1992. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that had direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics included: (1) The role of the mantle during regional extension. (2) The structural controls and emplacement mechanisms of Pliocene/Quaternary basaltic centers and dikes. (3) The detailed geochemistry of individual volcanic centers in Crater Flat, Nevada. (4) Estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruption (this topic is being studied by Dr. C-H. Ho at UNLV)

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

2015-04-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

Biomimetic thermal barrier coating in jet engine to resist volcanic ash deposition

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Wenjia; Major, Zsuzsanna; Schulz, Uwe; Muth, Tobias; Lavallée, Yan; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-04-01

The threat of volcanic ash to aviation safety is attracting extensive attention when several commercial jet aircraft were damaged after flying through volcanic ash clouds from the May 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helen in Washington, U.S. and especially after the air traffic disruption in 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. A major hazard presented by volcanic ash to aircraft is linked to the wetting and spreading of molten ash droplets on engine component surfaces. Due to the fact ash has a lower melting point, around 1100 °C, than the gas temperature in the hot section (between 1400 to 2000 °C), this cause the ash to melt and potentially stick to the internal components (e.g., combustor and turbine blades), this cause the ash to melt and potentially stick to the internal components of the engine creating, substantial damage or even engine failure after ingestion. Here, inspiring form the natural surface of lotus leaf (exhibiting extreme water repellency, known as 'lotus effect'), we firstly create the multifunctional surface thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) by producing a hierarchical structure with femtosecond laser pulses. In detail, we investigate the effect of one of primary femtosecond laser irradiation process parameter (scanning speed) on the hydrophobicity of water droplets onto the two kinds of TBCs fabricated by electron-beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) and air plasma spray (APS), respectively as well as their corresponding to morphology. It is found that, comparison with the original surface (without femtosecond laser ablation), all of the irradiated samples demonstrate more significant hydrophobic properties due to nanostructuring. On the basis of these preliminary room-temperature results, the wettability of volcanic ash droplets will be analysed at the high temperature to constrain the potential impact of volcanic ash on the jet engines.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our

Characteristics and management of the 2006-2008 volcanic crisis at the Ubinas volcano (Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Rivera, Marco; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Mariño, Jersy; Berolatti, Rossemary; Fuentes, José

2010-12-01

Ubinas volcano is located 75 km East of Arequipa and ca. 5000 people are living within 12 km from the summit. This composite cone is considered the most active volcano in southern Peru owing to its 24 low to moderate magnitude (VEI 1-3) eruptions in the past 500 years. The onset of the most recent eruptive episode occurred on 27 March 2006, following 8 months of heightened fumarolic activity. Vulcanian explosions occurred between 14 April 2006 and September 2007, at a time ejecting blocks up to 40 cm in diameter to distances of 2 km. Ash columns commonly rose to 3.5 km above the caldera rim and dispersed fine ash and aerosols to distances of 80 km between April 2006 and April 2007. Until April 2007, the total volume of ash was estimated at 0.004 km 3, suggesting that the volume of fresh magma was small. Ash fallout has affected residents, livestock, water supplies, and crop cultivation within an area of ca. 100 km 2 around the volcano. Continuous degassing and intermittent mild vulcanian explosions lasted until the end of 2008. Shortly after the initial explosions on mid April 2006 that spread ash fallout within 7 km of the volcano, an integrated Scientific Committee including three Peruvian institutes affiliated to the Regional Committee of Civil Defense for Moquegua, aided by members of the international cooperation, worked together to: i) elaborate and publish volcanic hazard maps; ii) inform and educate the population; and iii) advise regional authorities in regard to the management of the volcanic crisis and the preparation of contingency plans. Although the 2006-2008 volcanic crisis has been moderate, its management has been a difficult task even though less than 5000 people now live around the Ubinas volcano. However, the successful management has provided experience and skills to the scientific community. This volcanic crisis was not the first one that Peru has experienced but the 2006-2008 experience is the first long-lasting crisis that the Peruvian civil

Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

2014-05-01

Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

Science.gov (United States)

Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

2015-05-01

The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

An Earthquake Information Service with Free and Open Source Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, M.; Stender, V.; Jüngling, S.

2015-12-01

At the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, the working group Earthquakes and Volcano Physics examines the spatiotemporal behavior of earthquakes. In this context also the hazards of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are explored. The aim is to collect related information after the occurrence of such extreme event and make them available for science and partly to the public as quickly as possible. However, the overall objective of this research is to reduce the geological risks that emanate from such natural hazards. In order to meet the stated objectives and to get a quick overview about the seismicity of a particular region and to compare the situation to historical events, a comprehensive visualization was desired. Based on the web-accessible data from the famous GFZ GEOFON network a user-friendly web mapping application was realized. Further, this web service integrates historical and current earthquake information from the USGS earthquake database, and more historical events from various other catalogues like Pacheco, International Seismological Centre (ISC) and more. This compilation of sources is unique in Earth sciences. Additionally, information about historical and current occurrences of volcanic eruptions and tsunamis are also retrievable. Another special feature in the application is the containment of times via a time shifting tool. Users can interactively vary the visualization by moving the time slider. Furthermore, the application was realized by using the newest JavaScript libraries which enables the application to run in all sizes of displays and devices. Our contribution will present the making of, the architecture behind, and few examples of the look and feel of this application.

Volcanoes of México: An Interactive CD-ROM From the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program

Science.gov (United States)

Siebert, L.; Kimberly, P.; Calvin, C.; Luhr, J. F.; Kysar, G.

2002-12-01

The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program is nearing completion of an interactive CD-ROM, the Volcanoes of México. This CD is the second in a series sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Geothermal Technologies to collate Smithsonian data on Quaternary volcanism as a resource for the geothermal community. It also has utility for those concerned with volcanic hazard and risk mitgation as well as an educational tool for those interested in Mexican volcanism. We acknowledge the significant contributions of many Mexican volcanologists to the eruption reports, data, and images contained in this CD, in particular those contributions of the Centro Nacional de Prevencion de Desastres (CENAPRED), the Colima Volcano Observatory of the University of Colima, and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The Volcanoes of México CD has a format similar to that of an earlier Smithsonian CD, the Volcanoes of Indonesia, but also shows Pleistocene volcanic centers and additional data on geothermal sites. A clickable map of México shows both Holocene and Pleistocene volcanic centers and provides access to individual pages on 67 volcanoes ranging from Cerro Prieto in Baja California to Tacaná on the Guatemalan border. These include geographic and geologic data on individual volcanoes (as well as a brief paragraph summarizing the geologic history) along with tabular eruption chronologies, eruptive characteristics, and eruptive volumes, when known. Volcano data are accessible from both geographical and alphabetical searches. A major component of the CD is more than 400 digitized images illustrating the morphology of volcanic centers and eruption processes and deposits, providing a dramatic visual primer to the country's volcanoes. Images of specific eruptions can be directly linked to from the eruption chronology tables. The Volcanoes of México CD includes monthly reports and associated figures and tables cataloging volcanic activity in M�

Microgravity change as a precursor to volcanic activity

Science.gov (United States)

Rymer, Hazel

1994-07-01

In recent decades, systematic microgravity studies over some 20 active volcanoes in Central America, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Papua New Guinea and the USA have provided valuable data on sub-surface mass redistribution associated with volcanic activity. Concurrent data on ground deformation are essential to the unambiguous interpretation of gravity changes. In some instances, gravity and elevation vary along the free-air or Bouguer gradients, implying that there has been no sub-surface mass or density change, respectively. Where there are residual gravity changes after correction for elevation changes, magma movements in sub-surface chambers, feeder systems, vents and fissures (dykes) or water table variations are proposed. Although detailed interpretations depend on local circumstances and the calculations depend on source geometry, in general, the smallest residual gravity changes are associated with eruptions from volatile-poor basaltic vents and at extensional rift zones, whereas the highest residual values occur at explosive, subduction-related stratocones built from volatile-rich andesitic magma. The most intriguing, yet difficult, data to interpret derive from large-volume, infrequently erupting volcanic systems where caldera unrest is now becoming well documented and the ultimate hazards are most severe. Mass increases during inflation followed by limited mass loss during subsequent deflation typify these structures.

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

2009-08-22

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

Localization of Volcanic Activity: Topographic Effects on Dike Propagation, Eruption and COnduit Formation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

E.S. Gaffney; B. Damjanac

2006-05-12

Magma flow in a dike rising in a crack whose strike runs from a highland or a ridge to an adjacent lowland has been modeled to determine the effect of topography on the flow. It is found that there is a distinct tendency for the flow to be diverted away from the highland end of the strike toward the lowland. Separation of the geometric effect of the topography from its effect on lateral confining stresses on the crack indicates that both contribute to the effect but that the effect of stress is less important. Although this analysis explains a tendency for volcanic eruptions to occur in low lands, it does not preclude eruptions on highlands. The particular configuration modeled mimics topography around the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, so that the results may indicate some reduction in the volcanic hazard to the site.

Localization of Volcanic Activity: Topographic Effects on Dike Propagation, Eruption and Conduit Formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

E.S. Gaffney; B. Damjanac

2006-01-01

Magma flow in a dike rising in a crack whose strike runs from a highland or a ridge to an adjacent lowland has been modeled to determine the effect of topography on the flow. It is found that there is a distinct tendency for the flow to be diverted away from the highland end of the strike toward the lowland. Separation of the geometric effect of the topography from its effect on lateral confining stresses on the crack indicates that both contribute to the effect but that the effect of stress is less important. Although this analysis explains a tendency for volcanic eruptions to occur in low lands, it does not preclude eruptions on highlands. The particular configuration modeled mimics topography around the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, so that the results may indicate some reduction in the volcanic hazard to the site

Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

2014-12-01

Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

A multidisciplinary system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

Science.gov (United States)

Coltelli, Mauro; Prestifilippo, Michele; Spata, Gaetano; Scollo, Simona; Andronico, Daniele

2010-05-01

One of the most active volcanoes in the world is Mt. Etna, in Italy, characterized by frequent explosive activity from the central craters and from fractures opened along the volcano flanks which, during the last years, caused several damages to aviation and forced the closure of the Catania International Airport. To give precise warning to the aviation authorities and air traffic controller and to assist the work of VAACs, a novel system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, was developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Catania, the managing institution for the surveillance of Etna volcano. Monitoring is carried out using multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite able to track the volcanic plume with a high time resolution, visual and thermal cameras used to monitor the explosive activity, three continuous wave X-band disdrometers which detect ash dispersal and fallout, sounding balloons used to evaluate the atmospheric fields, and finally field data collected after the end of the eruptive event needed to extrapolate important features of explosive activity. Forecasting is carried out daily using automatic procedures which download weather forecast data obtained by meteorological mesoscale models from the Italian Air Force national Meteorological Office and from the hydrometeorological service of ARPA-SIM; run four different tephra dispersal models using input parameters obtained by the analysis of the deposits collected after few hours since the eruptive event similar to 22 July 1998, 21-24 July 2001 and 2002-03 Etna eruptions; plot hazard maps on ground and in air and finally publish them on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. The system has been already tested successfully during several explosive events occurring at Etna in 2006, 2007 and 2008. These events produced eruption

Environmental Product Development Combining the Life Cycle Perspective with Chemical Hazard Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Askham, Cecilia

in the design or redesign process. This thesis concerns marrying the life cycle perspective with chemical hazard information, in order to advance the practice of environmental product development, and hence takes further steps towards sustainable development. The need to consider the full value chain...... for the life cycle of products meant that systems theory and systems engineering principles were important in this work. Life cycle assessment methodology was important for assessing environmental impacts for case products. The new European regulation for chemicals (REACH) provided the main driver......Concerns regarding the short- and long-term detrimental effects of chemicals on human health and ecosystems have made the minimisation of chemical hazards a vitally important issue. If sustainable development is to be achieved, environmental efficient products (and product life cycles...

The California Hazards Institute

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

Model-based aviation advice on distal volcanic ash clouds by assimilating aircraft in situ measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Fu

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved.

[Information content of immunologic parameters in the evaluation of the effects of hazardous substances].

Science.gov (United States)

Litovskaia, A V; Sadovskiĭ, V V; Vifleemskiĭ, A B

1995-01-01

Clinical and immunologic examination including 1 and 2 level tests covered 429 staffers of chemical enterprises and 1122 of those engaged into microbiological synthesis of proteins, both the groups exposed to some irritating gases and isocyanates. Using calculation of Kulbak's criterion, the studies selected informative parameters to diagnose immune disturbances caused by occupational hazards. For integral evaluation of immune state, the authors applied general immunologic parameter, meanings of which can serve as criteria for early diagnosis of various immune disorders and for definition of risk groups among industrial workers exposed to occupational biologic and chemical hazards.

Education as a key objective of the interdisciplinary volcanic risk mitigation strategy VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE for developing resilient and sustainable areas around Vesuvius

Science.gov (United States)

Dobran, F.; Imperatrice, A.

2017-12-01

VESUVIUS PENTALOGUE requires the achievement of 5 key objectives for Summa-Vesuvius area: (1) Development of temporary settlements for the inhabitants close to their native homeland until the volcanic crisis subsides; (2) Division of the danger zone into an exclusion nucleus that prohibits all future human settlements and discourages the existing ones, a resilience belt that houses most of the current populations, and a sustainable area beyond the resilience belt that allows for sustainable practices and temporary resettlements of resilience belt citizens following the volcanic crises; (3) Development of built environment construction codes for the population of the danger zone by utilizing plinian eruption scenarios, scenario-based seismic hazard assessment and zonation, global volcanic simulator, and dynamic structural analysis; (4) Implementation of volcanic risk information and education campaigns for different risk areas surrounding the volcano; and (5) Production of a memorandum of understanding between the authorities and scientific communities, and production of periodic progress reports for keeping the populations informed on the developments leading to the realization of the above objectives.For the past 20 years we have devoted considerable efforts towards the achievement of educational objectives. We worked with local volunteers and social and cultural organizations and with our colleagues delivered over 200 public and school seminars in 15 communities around Vesuvius, organized 2 international scientific meetings for allowing the public and high school children to interact directly with the scientists working on this volcano, and established numerous contacts with school teachers for helping them engage their students on Vesuvius from the scientific, artistic, social, and cultural perspectives. Every year GVES has been the promoter of Vesuvius area manifestations where the school children have the opportunities to expose their works on this volcano and

Assessment of volcanic and tectonic hazards to high level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallmann, P.C.; Miller, I.; Kossik, R.

1993-01-01

Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a computer program (RIP) for performing probabilistic total system performance assessment and site characterization strategy evaluation which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and to guide characterization activities. The performance assessment model incorporated in RIP has three basic component models: (1) waste package behavior, (2) radionuclide transport pathways, and (3) disruptive events. Classes of disruptive events are specified in RIP by (1) a disruption rate (events/yr.), (2) open-quotes event descriptorsclose quotes which describe event characteristics and magnitude, and (3) the consequences associated with an event. One of the strengths of RIP is its flexibility, which allows it to evaluate different sites and conceptual models. Examples of seismic and volcanic disruptive event models constructed by GAI for Yucca Mountain are presented. Analysis of the results of these models indicates that for the simulated models, neither of these event classes significantly impacts the performance of the proposed repository over a 10,000 year time span

Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

2009-04-01

Similar to many megacities in the world, Dhaka is regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. Greater Dhaka is expected to grow from 13.5 million inhabitants in 2007 to 22 million inhabitants by 2025. The vast majority of this growth will take place in informal settlements. Due to the setting of Greater Dhaka in a deltaic plain, the sprawl of slums is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other flood-prone areas. Slum dwellers and informal businesses are vulnerable, but have somehow learned to cope with seasonal floods and developed specific adaptation strategies. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, however, would put considerable stress on the adaptability of the social and economic system. DhakaHazard, a joint research project of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Bonn and the Department of Geography at the University of Cologne, takes up these issues in an interdisciplinary approach. The project, which begun in November 2008, aims to achieve two main objectives: To link analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies to models on future climate change and weather extremes. To estimate more accurately the future frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and floods which are crucial for the future adaptability of informal systems. To fulfill these objectives, scientists at the Meteorological Institute are studying the evolution of natural hazards in Bangladesh, while researchers at the Department of Geography are undertaking the task of assessing these hazards from a social point of view. More specifically, the meteorologists are identifying global and regional weather conditions resulting in flooding of the Greater Dhaka region, while possible variations in flood-inducing weather patterns are analyzed by evaluating their frequency and magnitude

Geologic mapping as a prerequisite to hazardous waste facility siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaMoreaux, P.E.

1993-01-01

The nation's welfare is based on its capability to develop the mineral, water, and energy resources of the land. In addition, these resources must be developed with adequate consideration of environmental impact and the future welfare of the country. Geologic maps are an absolute necessity in the discovery and development of natural resources; for managing radioactive, toxic, and hazardous wastes; and for the assessment of hazards and risks such as those associated with volcanic action, earthquakes, landslides, and subsidence. Geologic maps are the basis for depicting rocks and rock materials, minerals, coal, oil, and water at or near the earth's surface. Hazardous waste facility projects require the preparation of detailed geologic maps. Throughout most of the USA, this type of mapping detail is not available. If these maps were available, it is estimated that the duration of an individual project could be reduced by at least one-fourth (1/4). Therefore, adequate site-specific mapping is required if one is to eliminate environmental problems associated with hazardous, toxic, radioactive, and municipal waste sites

Natural Environmental Hazards Reflected in High-Altitude Patagonian Lake Sediments (lake Caviahue, Argentina)

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Anne; Scharf, Burkhard; von Tümpling, Wolf; Pirrung, Michael

2009-03-01

Two 6-m long sediment cores drilled in the two basins of Lake Caviahue give new evidence of the impact of natural hazards such as ash fallouts linked to nearby volcanic eruptions in the ecologically sensitive environment of the high-altitude region of the Argentinan Patagonian Andes. The two cores show distinct signals of changes in autochthonous productivity and terrigenous input into the lake from ash fallout as well as from river load and shore erosion. Multiproxy records of the sediments indicate whether these changes can be related to volcanic activity. High values of magnetic susceptibility in the cores reflect periods of basaltic ash fallouts during eruptions of the nearby Copahue Volcano. The southern basin is located in the prevalent direction of ash fallouts and has been affected by these volcanic inputs more intensely than the northern basin of the lake. In contrast, sedimentation and authochthonous productivity in the northern basin are strongly affected by fluvial inputs such as suspended river load and acidic stream waters.

78 FR 44625 - Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-24

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne... to ``OMB Control No. 2900--NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire... health effects of service members' exposure to toxic airborne chemicals and fumes caused by open burn...

Hazardous Waste: Learn the Basics of Hazardous Waste

Science.gov (United States)

... Need More Information on Hazardous Waste? The RCRA Orientation Manual provides introductory information on the solid and ... and Security Notice Connect. Data.gov Inspector General Jobs Newsroom Open Government Regulations.gov Subscribe USA.gov ...

Volcanic signals in oceans

KAUST Repository

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wittenberg, Andrew; Zeng, Fanrong

2009-01-01

Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean

The use of Remote Sensing for the Study of the Relationships Between Tectonics and Volcanism

Science.gov (United States)

Chorowicz, J.; Dhont, D.; Yanev, Y.; Bardintzeff, J.

2004-12-01

Observations of geometric relationships between tectonics and volcanism is a fruitful approach in geology. On the one hand analysis of the distribution and types of volcanic vents provides information on the geodynamics. On the other hand tectonic analysis explains the location of volcanics vents. Volcanic edifices often result from regional scale deformation, forming open structures constituting preferred pathways for the rise of magmas. Analysis of the shape and the distribution of vents can consequently provide data on the regional deformation. Remote sensing imagery gives synoptic views of the earth surface allowing the analysis of landforms of still active tectonic and volcanic features. Shape and distribution of volcanic vents, together with recent tectonic patterns are best observed by satellite data and Digital Elevation Models than in the field. The use of radar scenes for the study of the structural relationships between tectonic and volcanic features is particularly efficient because these data express sensitive changes in the morphology. In various selected areas, we show that volcanic edifices are located on tension fractures responsible for fissure eruptions, volcanic linear clusters and elongate volcanoes. Different types of volcanic emplacements can be also distinguished such as tail-crack or horse-tail features, and releasing bend basins along strike-slip faults. Caldera complexes seem to be associated to horse-tail type fault terminations. At a regional scale, the distribution of volcanic vents and their relationships with the faults is able to explain the occurrence of volcanism in collisional areas.

Geomechanical characterization of volcanic rocks using empirical systems and data mining techniques

OpenAIRE

T. Miranda; L.R. Sousa; A.T. Gomes; J. Tinoco; C. Ferreira

2018-01-01

This paper tries to characterize volcanic rocks through the development and application of an empirical geomechanical system. Geotechnical information was collected from the samples from several Atlantic Ocean islands including Madeira, Azores and Canarias archipelagos. An empirical rock classification system termed as the volcanic rock system (VRS) is developed and presented in detail. Results using the VRS are compared with those obtained using the traditional rock mass rating (RMR) system....

Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciro Del Negro

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lava-flow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.