WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcanic hazard information

  1. Integrating Community Volcanic Hazard Mapping, Geographic Information Systems, and Modeling to Reduce Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajo Sanchez, Jorge V.

    This dissertation is composed of an introductory chapter and three papers about vulnerability and volcanic hazard maps with emphasis on lahars. The introductory chapter reviews definitions of the term vulnerability by the social and natural hazard community and it provides a new definition of hazard vulnerability that includes social and natural hazard factors. The first paper explains how the Community Volcanic Hazard Map (CVHM) is used for vulnerability analysis and explains in detail a new methodology to obtain valuable information about ethnophysiographic differences, hazards, and landscape knowledge of communities in the area of interest: the Canton Buenos Aires situated on the northern flank of the Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano, El Salvador. The second paper is about creating a lahar hazard map in data poor environments by generating a landslide inventory and obtaining potential volumes of dry material that can potentially be carried by lahars. The third paper introduces an innovative lahar hazard map integrating information generated by the previous two papers. It shows the differences in hazard maps created by the communities and experts both visually as well as quantitatively. This new, integrated hazard map was presented to the community with positive feedback and acceptance. The dissertation concludes with a summary chapter on the results and recommendations.

  2. Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

    1996-01-01

    An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

  3. Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

    2014-05-01

    Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

  4. Volcanic hazards to airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

    2009-01-01

    Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies

  5. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields

    OpenAIRE

    Bartolini, Stefania

    2014-01-01

    [eng] One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology, which represents a significant socio-economic implication, is to conduct hazard assessment in active volcanic systems. These volcanological studies are aimed at hazard that allows to constructing hazard maps and simulating different eruptive scenarios, and are mainly addressed to contribute to territorial planning, definition of emergency plans or managing volcanic crisis. The impact of a natural event, as a volcanic eruption, can s...

  6. The Global Framework for Providing Information about Volcanic-Ash Hazards to International Air Navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, R. W.; Guffanti, M.

    2009-12-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) created the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) in 1987 to establish a requirement for international dissemination of information about airborne ash hazards to safe air navigation. The IAVW is a set of operational protocols and guidelines that member countries agree to follow in order to implement a global, multi-faceted program to support the strategy of ash-cloud avoidance. Under the IAVW, the elements of eruption reporting, ash-cloud detecting, and forecasting expected cloud dispersion are coordinated to culminate in warnings sent to air traffic controllers, dispatchers, and pilots about the whereabouts of ash clouds. Nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) established under the IAVW have the responsibility for detecting the presence of ash in the atmosphere, primarily by looking at imagery from civilian meteorological satellites, and providing advisories about the location and movement of ash clouds to aviation meteorological offices and other aviation users. Volcano Observatories also are a vital part of the IAVW, as evidenced by the recent introduction of a universal message format for reporting the status of volcanic activity, including precursory unrest, to aviation users. Since 2003, the IAVW has been overseen by a standing group of scientific, technical, and regulatory experts that assists ICAO in the development of standards and other regulatory material related to volcanic ash. Some specific problems related to the implementation of the IAVW include: the lack of implementation of SIGMET (warning to aircraft in flight) provisions and delayed notifications of volcanic eruptions. Expected future challenges and developments involve the improvement in early notifications of volcanic eruptions, the consolidation of the issuance of SIGMETs, and the possibility of determining a “safe” concentration of volcanic ash.

  7. Application of Geographical Information Systems to Lahar Hazard Assessment on an Active Volcanic System

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Lahars (highly dynamic mixtures of volcanic debris and water) have been responsible for some of the most serious volcanic disasters and have killed tens of thousands of people in recent decades. Despite considerable lahar model development in the sciences, many research tools have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application on an active volcanic system where it is difficult to obtain field measurements. In addition, geographic information systems are tools that offer a great potenti...

  8. Models of volcanic eruption hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wohletz, K.H.

    1992-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions pose an ever present but poorly constrained hazard to life and property for geothermal installations in volcanic areas. Because eruptions occur sporadically and may limit field access, quantitative and systematic field studies of eruptions are difficult to complete. Circumventing this difficulty, laboratory models and numerical simulations are pivotal in building our understanding of eruptions. For example, the results of fuel-coolant interaction experiments show that magma-water interaction controls many eruption styles. Applying these results, increasing numbers of field studies now document and interpret the role of external water eruptions. Similarly, numerical simulations solve the fundamental physics of high-speed fluid flow and give quantitative predictions that elucidate the complexities of pyroclastic flows and surges. A primary goal of these models is to guide geologists in searching for critical field relationships and making their interpretations. Coupled with field work, modeling is beginning to allow more quantitative and predictive volcanic hazard assessments.

  9. Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA, which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions" recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene.

    The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru. The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (<0.05 km3 in 1985 of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia killed about 25 000 people – the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent

  10. Volcanic hazards on the Island of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullineaux, Donal Ray; Peterson, Donald W.

    1974-01-01

    identify sites where either overall risk or risk from some specific hazard is relatively high, and to identify areas in which there is a threat to lives as well as to property. The report further can serve as a basis for warning persons about hazards in areas most likely to be affected by volcanic eruptions. Perhaps most important, however, the report provides basic information needed for zoning to control future land use.

  11. A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    W. Marzocchi; Sandri, L.; Furlan, C

    2006-01-01

    Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees o...

  12. Building Better Volcanic Hazard Maps Through Scientific and Stakeholder Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Calder, E.

    2015-12-01

    All across the world information about natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunami is shared and communicated using maps that show which locations are potentially exposed to hazards of varying intensities. Unlike earthquakes and tsunami, which typically produce one dominant hazardous phenomenon (ground shaking and inundation, respectively) volcanic eruptions can produce a wide variety of phenomena that range from near-vent (e.g. pyroclastic flows, ground shaking) to distal (e.g. volcanic ash, inundation via tsunami), and that vary in intensity depending on the type and location of the volcano. This complexity poses challenges in depicting volcanic hazard on a map, and to date there has been no consistent approach, with a wide range of hazard maps produced and little evaluation of their relative efficacy. Moreover, in traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map that is then presented to stakeholders. This one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication does not necessarily translate into effective hazard education, or, as tragically demonstrated by Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia in 1985, its use in risk mitigation by civil authorities. Furthermore, messages taken away from a hazard map can be strongly influenced by its visual design. Thus, hazard maps are more likely to be useful, usable and used if relevant stakeholders are engaged during the hazard map process to ensure a) the map is designed in a relevant way and b) the map takes into account how users interpret and read different map features and designs. The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk has recently launched a Hazard Mapping Working Group to collate some of these experiences in graphically depicting volcanic hazard from around the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean, with the aim of preparing some Considerations for Producing Volcanic Hazard Maps that may help map makers in the future.

  13. Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit

  14. Volcanic hazard assessment at Deception Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Geyer, A.; Martí, J.

    2012-04-01

    Deception Island is the most active volcano of the South Shetland Islands (Antarctica) with more than twenty eruptions recognised over the past two centuries. The island was formed on the expansion axis of the Central Bransfield Strait and its evolution consists of constructive and destructive phases. A first a shield phase was followed by the construction of a central edifice and formation of the caldera with a final monogenetic volcanism along the caldera rim. The post-caldera magma composition varies from andesitic-basaltic to dacitic. The activity is characterised by monogenetic eruptions of low volume and short duration. The eruptions show a variable degree of explosivity, strombolian or phreatomagmatic, with a VEI 2 to 4, which have generated a wide variety of pyroclastic deposits and lavas. It is remarkable how many phases of phreatic explosive eruptions are associated to the emission of large ballistic blocks. Tephra record preserved in the glacier ice of Livingston Island or in marine sediments show the explosive power of the phreatomagmatic phases and the wide dispersal of its finest products in a great variety of directions of the prevailing winds. Also it is important to highlight the presence of different lahar deposits associated with some of these eruptions. In this contribution we present the guidelines to conduct a short-term and long-term volcanic hazard assessment at Deception Island. We apply probabilistic methods to estimate the susceptibility, statistical techniques to determine the eruption recurrence and eruptive scenario, and reproduce the effects of historical eruptions too. Volcanic hazard maps and scenarios are obtained using a Voris-based model tool (Felpeto et al., 2007) in a free Geographical Information System (GIS), a Quantum GIS.

  15. Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R. I.

    2009-12-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

  16. Volcanism and associated hazards: The Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.I.

    2009-01-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

  17. Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

    2011-01-01

    More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

  18. Volcanic air pollution hazards in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

    2017-04-20

    Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other air pollutants emitted from Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i react with oxygen, atmospheric moisture, and sunlight to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog can negatively affect human health and agriculture, and acid rain can contaminate household water supplies by leaching metals from building and plumbing materials in rooftop rainwater-catchment systems. U.S. Geological Survey scientists, along with health professionals and local government officials are working together to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

  19. Volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crandell, Dwight Raymond; Mullineaux, Donal Ray

    1967-01-01

    Mount Rainier is a large stratovolcano of andesitic rock in the Cascade Range of western Washington. Although the volcano as it now stands was almost completely formed before the last major glaciation, geologic formations record a variety of events that have occurred at the volcano in postglacial time. Repetition of some of these events today without warning would result in property damage and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. It is appropriate, therefore, to examine the extent, frequency, and apparent origin of these phenomena and to attempt to predict the effects on man of similar events in the future. The present report was prompted by a contrast that we noted during a study of surficial geologic deposits in Mount Rainier National Park, between the present tranquil landscape adjacent to the volcano and the violent events that shaped parts of that same landscape in the recent past. Natural catastrophes that have geologic causes - such as eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, and floods - all too often are disastrous primarily because man has not understood and made allowance for the geologic environment he occupies. Assessment of the potential hazards of a volcanic environment is especially difficult, for prediction of the time and kind of volcanic activity is still an imperfect art, even at active volcanoes whose behavior has been closely observed for many years. Qualified predictions, however, can be used to plan ways in which hazards to life and property can be minimized. The prediction of eruptions is handicapped because volcanism results from conditions far beneath the surface of the earth, where the causative factors cannot be seen and, for the most part, cannot be measured. Consequently, long-range predictions at Mount Rainier can be based only on the past behavior of the volcano, as revealed by study of the deposits that resulted from previous eruptions. Predictions of this sort, of course, cannot be specific as to time and locale of future events, and

  20. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, D. K.; Gisladottir, G.; Dominey-Howes, D.

    2009-02-01

    Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used

  1. Assessing volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain using expert judgment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Nesbit, J. [Department of Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-01

    A study to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, termed the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, is being sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This assessment, which is focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will eventually provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption. To ensure that a wide range of approaches are considered in the hazard analysis, judgments of members of an expert panel will be elicited. The results of the individual elicitations will be combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of scientific interpretations. This paper outlines the hazard model components and the procedures for eliciting expert judgments.

  2. Volcanic hazards at Atitlan volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haapala, J.M.; Escobar Wolf, R.; Vallance, James W.; Rose, William I.; Griswold, J.P.; Schilling, S.P.; Ewert, J.W.; Mota, M.

    2006-01-01

    Atitlan Volcano is in the Guatemalan Highlands, along a west-northwest trending chain of volcanoes parallel to the mid-American trench. The volcano perches on the southern rim of the Atitlan caldera, which contains Lake Atitlan. Since the major caldera-forming eruption 85 thousand years ago (ka), three stratovolcanoes--San Pedro, Toliman, and Atitlan--have formed in and around the caldera. Atitlan is the youngest and most active of the three volcanoes. Atitlan Volcano is a composite volcano, with a steep-sided, symmetrical cone comprising alternating layers of lava flows, volcanic ash, cinders, blocks, and bombs. Eruptions of Atitlan began more than 10 ka [1] and, since the arrival of the Spanish in the mid-1400's, eruptions have occurred in six eruptive clusters (1469, 1505, 1579, 1663, 1717, 1826-1856). Owing to its distance from population centers and the limited written record from 200 to 500 years ago, only an incomplete sample of the volcano's behavior is documented prior to the 1800's. The geologic record provides a more complete sample of the volcano's behavior since the 19th century. Geologic and historical data suggest that the intensity and pattern of activity at Atitlan Volcano is similar to that of Fuego Volcano, 44 km to the east, where active eruptions have been observed throughout the historical period. Because of Atitlan's moderately explosive nature and frequency of eruptions, there is a need for local and regional hazard planning and mitigation efforts. Tourism has flourished in the area; economic pressure has pushed agricultural activity higher up the slopes of Atitlan and closer to the source of possible future volcanic activity. This report summarizes the hazards posed by Atitlan Volcano in the event of renewed activity but does not imply that an eruption is imminent. However, the recognition of potential activity will facilitate hazard and emergency preparedness.

  3. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  4. The Yucca Mountain probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)] [and others

    1996-12-01

    The Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was conducted to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. The PVHA project is one of the first major expert judgment studies that DOE has authorized for technical assessments related to the Yucca Mountain project. The judgments of members of a ten-person expert panel were elicited to ensure that a wide range of approaches were considered for the hazard analysis. The results of the individual elicitations were then combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of alternative scientific interpretations. This assessment, which focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption.

  5. Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

    2016-04-01

    Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

  6. Volcanic hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera

    OpenAIRE

    Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L; C. Troise; S. Rossano; Panizza, A; G. De Natale

    2006-01-01

    Previous and new results from probabilistic approaches based on available volcanological data from real eruptions of Campi Flegrei, are assembled in a comprehensive assessment of volcanic hazards at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to compare the volcanic hazards related to the different types of events. Hazard maps based on a very wide set of numerical simulations, produced using field and laboratory data as input parameters relative to the whole range of fallout and pyrocl...

  7. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  8. Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

  9. Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

    2010-09-01

    The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

  10. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

  11. Volcanic hazard impacts to critical infrastructure: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, G.; Wilson, T. M.; Deligne, N. I.; Cole, J. W.

    2014-10-01

    Effective natural hazard risk assessment requires the characterisation of both hazards and vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Volcanic hazard assessment is at an advanced state and is a considerable focus of volcanic scientific inquiry, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analysing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. This paper reviews documented disruption and physical damage of critical infrastructure elements resulting from four volcanic hazards (tephra fall, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lahars) of eruptions in the last 100 years. We define critical infrastructure as including energy sector infrastructure, water supply and wastewater networks, transportation routes, communications, and critical components. Common trends of impacts and vulnerabilities are summarised, which can be used to assess and reduce volcanic risk for future eruptions. In general, tephra falls cause disruption to these infrastructure sectors, reducing their functionality, whilst flow hazards (pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lahars) are more destructive causing considerable permanent damage. Volcanic risk assessment should include quantification of vulnerabilities and we challenge the volcanology community to address this through the implementation of a standardised vulnerability assessment methodology and the development and use of fragility functions, as has been successfully implemented in other natural hazard fields.

  12. Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

  13. Global Volcano Model: progress towards an international co-ordinated network for volcanic hazard and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin, Susan

    2013-04-01

    GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. GVM is a network that aims to co-ordinate and integrate the efforts of the international volcanology community. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM. Activities currently include: design and development of databases of volcano data, volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards; establishment of methodologies for analysis of the data (e.g. hazard and exposure indices) to inform risk assessment; development of complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM acts through establishing task forces to deliver explicit deliverables in finite periods of time. GVM has a task force to deliver a global assessment of volcanic risk for UN ISDR, a task force for indices, and a task force for volcano deformation from satellite observations. GVM is organising a Volcano Best Practices workshop in 2013. A recent product of GVM is a global database on large magnitude explosive eruptions. There is ongoing work to develop databases on debris avalanches, lava dome hazards and ash hazard. GVM aims to develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

  14. California's Vulnerability to Volcanic Hazards: What's at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, M.; Wood, N. J.; Dinitz, L.

    2015-12-01

    California is a leader in comprehensive planning for devastating earthquakes, landslides, floods, and tsunamis. Far less attention, however, has focused on the potentially devastating impact of volcanic eruptions, despite the fact that they occur in the State about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault Zone. At least 10 eruptions have occurred in the past 1,000 years—most recently in northern California (Lassen Peak 1914 to 1917)—and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable. The likelihood of renewed volcanism in California is about one in a few hundred to one in a few thousand annually. Eight young volcanoes, ranked as Moderate to Very High Threat [1] are dispersed throughout the State. Partially molten rock (magma) resides beneath at least seven of these—Medicine Lake Volcano, Mount Shasta, Lassen Volcanic Center, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, Long Valley Volcanic Region, Coso Volcanic Field, and Salton Buttes— causing earthquakes, toxic gas emissions, hydrothermal activity, and (or) ground deformation. Understanding the hazards and identifying what is at risk are the first steps in building community resilience to volcanic disasters. This study, prepared in collaboration with the State of California Governor's Office of Emergency Management and the California Geological Survey, provides a broad perspective on the State's exposure to volcano hazards by integrating mapped volcano hazard zones with geospatial data on at-risk populations, infrastructure, and resources. The study reveals that ~ 16 million acres fall within California's volcano hazard zones, along with ~ 190 thousand permanent and 22 million transitory populations. Additionally, far-field disruption to key water delivery systems, agriculture, utilities, and air traffic is likely. Further site- and sector-specific analyses will lead to improved hazard mitigation efforts and more effective disaster response and recovery. [1] "Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities

  15. Probabilistic estimation of long-term volcanic hazard with assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaquet, O.; Lantuéjoul, C.; Goto, J.

    2012-08-01

    Risk assessments in relation to the siting of potential geological repositories require the estimation of long-term volcanic hazard. Owing to their tectonic situation, many industrial regions around the world are concerned by such evaluation. For sites near volcanically active regions, the prevailing source of uncertainty is long-term volcanic hazard. The complexity and non-linearity of volcanic processes, the space-time variability in terms of distribution and intensity for volcanic events and the limited amount of information make probabilistic estimation of volcanic hazard ineluctable. The needs for reliable methodologies for volcanic and tectonic hazard assessments in Japan have stimulated the development of specific stochastic models for improving uncertainty characterization. A conditional Cox process with a multivariate potential was developed for the assimilation of geophysics and tectonic data (gravity data, GPS strain rate data and active faults). The theoretical basis and concepts of the proposed model are given and a methodological illustration is provided using data from the island of Kyushu.

  16. Melting Behavior of Volcanic Ash relevant to Aviation Ash Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, W.; Hess, K.; Lavallee, Y.; Cimarelli, C.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Volcanic ash is one of the major hazards caused by volcanic eruptions. In particular, the threat to aviation from airborne volcanic ash has been widely recognized and documented. In the past 12 years, more than 60 modern jet airplanes, mostly jumbo jets, have been damaged by drifting clouds of volcanic ash that have contaminated air routes and airport facilities. Seven of these encounters are known to have caused in-flight loss of engine power to jumbo jets carrying a total of more than 2000 passengers. The primary cause of engine thrust loss is that the glass in volcanic ash particles is generated at temperatures far lower than the temperatures in the combustion chamber of a jet engine ( i.e. > 1600 oC) and when the molten volcanic ash particles leave this hottest section of the engine, the resolidified molten volcanic ash particles will be accumulated on the turbine nozzle guide vanes, which reduced the effective flow of air through the engine ultimately causing failure. Thus, it is essential to investigate the melting process and subsequent deposition behavior of volcanic ash under gas turbine conditions. Although few research studies that investigated the deposition behavior of volcanic ash at the high temperature are to be found in public domain, to the best our knowledge, no work addresses the formation of molten volcanic ash. In this work, volcanic ash produced by Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala in November 8, 2012 was selected for study because of their recent activity and potential hazard to aircraft safety. We used the method of accessing the behavior of deposit-forming impurities in high temperature boiler plants on the basis of observations of the change in shape and size of a cylindrical coal ash to study the sintering and fusion phenomena as well as determine the volcanic ash melting behavior by using characteristic temperatures by means of hot stage microscope (HSM), different thermal analysis (DTA) and Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) to

  17. UPDATE TO THE PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS, YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K.J. Coppersmith

    2005-09-14

    A probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis (PVHA) was conducted in 1996 for the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Based on data gathered by the Yucca Mountain Project over the course of about 15 years, the analysis integrated the judgments of a panel of ten volcanic experts using methods of formal expert elicitation. PVHA resulted in a probability distribution of the annual frequency of a dike intersecting the repository, which ranges from 10E-7 to 10E-10 (mean 1.6 x 10E-8). The analysis incorporates assessments of the future locations, rates, and types of volcanic dikes that could intersect the repository, which lies about 300 m below the surface. A particular focus of the analysis is the quantification of uncertainties. Since the 1996 PVHA, additional aeromagnetic data have been collected in the Yucca Mountain region, including a high-resolution low-altitude survey. A number of anomalies have been identified within alluvial areas and modeling suggests that some of these may represent buried eruptive centers (basaltic cinder cones). A program is currently underway to drill several of the anomalies to gain information on their origin and, if basalt, their age and composition. To update the PVHA in light of the new aeromagnetic and drilling data as well as other advancements in volcanic hazard modeling over the past decade, the expert panel has been reconvened and the expert elicitation process has been fully restarted. The analysis requires assessments of the spatial distribution of igneous events, temporal distributions, and geometries and characteristics of future events (both intrusive and extrusive). The assessments are for future time periods of 10,000 years and 1,000,000 years. Uncertainties are being quantified in both the conceptual models that define these elements as well as in the parameters for the models. The expert elicitation process is centered around a series of workshops that focus on the available data; alternative approaches to

  18. Volcanic hazard on Deception Island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Geyer, A.; Martí, J.; Pedrazzi, D.; Aguirre-Díaz, G.

    2014-09-01

    Deception Island is the most active volcano in the South Shetland Islands and has been the scene of more than twenty identified eruptions over the past two centuries. In this contribution we present the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for this volcanic island. The research is based on the use of probabilistic methods and statistical techniques to estimate volcanic susceptibility, eruption recurrence and the most likely future eruptive scenarios. We perform a statistical analysis of the time series of past eruptions and the spatial extent of their products, including lava flows, fallout, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. The Bayesian event tree statistical method HASSET is applied to calculate eruption recurrence, while the QVAST tool is used in an analysis of past activity to calculate the possibility that new vents will open (volcanic susceptibility). On the basis of these calculations, we identify a number of significant scenarios using the GIS-based VORIS 2.0.1 and LAHARZ software and evaluate the potential extent of the main volcanic hazards to be expected on the island. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of volcanic hazard on Deception Island and the results obtained are potentially useful for long-term emergency planning.

  19. An assessment of future volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackett, W.R. [WRH Associates, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Preliminary results and methods of a volcanic-hazards assessment for the proposed high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain are given. The most significant hazards are potential intersection of the repository by a basaltic dike, or structural disruption associated with dike intrusion. Two approaches are taken, which give similar results: homogeneous volcanic-source zones and spatial smoothing. The preliminary computed probabilities of intersection of the Yucca Mountain repository by a basaltic dike are in the range 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -8} per year.

  20. Volcanic hazard mapping for development planning

    OpenAIRE

    Dunkley, P.N.; Young, S. R.

    2000-01-01

    It is estimated that more than 500 million people are at risk from the hazards posed by volcanoes. The potential therefore exists for major loss of life and damage to property in a number of regions, especially where large urban areas occur in proximity to dangerous volcanoes. As population pressures intensify, hazardous areas are likely to become increasingly developed, so raising the level of risk. In the case of major eruptions, losses to property, infrastructure and economic activity c...

  1. G-EVER Activities and the Next-generation Volcanic Hazard Assessment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) is a consortium of Asia-Pacific geohazard research institutes that was established in 2012. G-EVER aims to formulate strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. G-EVER is working on enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information on the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The 1st G-EVER International Symposium was held in Tsukuba, Japan in March 11, 2013. The 2nd Symposium is scheduled in Sendai, Tohoku Japan, in Oct. 19-20, 2013. Currently, 4 working groups were proposed in the G-EVER Consortium. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment WG is developing a useful system for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is based on volcanic eruption history datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Volcanic eruption histories including precursor phenomena leading to major eruptions of active volcanoes are very important for future prediction of volcanic eruptions. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and types, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. Proposing international standards on how to estimate the volume of volcanic products is important to make a high quality volcanic eruption database. Spatial distribution database of volcanic products (e.g. tephra and pyroclastic flow distributions), encoded into a GIS based database is necessary for more precise area and volume estimation and risk assessments. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represents a subset of possible future scenarios. Therefore, numerical simulations with controlled parameters are needed for more precise volcanic eruption

  2. UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

  3. Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.; Harrington, C. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA); Turrin, B.; Champion, D. [US Geological Survey (US); Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C. [New Mexico Univ., Albuquerque, NM (USA)

    1989-12-31

    Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located between 8 and 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10-8 to 10-10 yr-1. These bounds are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evolution of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: Many of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity, The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 105 yrs, There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene. The authors classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 103 to 105 yrs. magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes.

  4. Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

    1989-05-01

    Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10{sup {minus}8} to 10{sup {minus}10} yr{sup {minus}1}. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10{sup 5} yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10{sup 3} to 10{sup 5} yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs.

  5. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of differ...

  6. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different erupt...

  7. Volcanic hazards of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and adjacent areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackett, W.R. [WRH Associates, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Smith, R.P. [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Potential volcanic hazards are assessed, and hazard zone maps are developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and adjacent areas. The basis of the hazards assessment and mapping is the past volcanic history of the INEL region, and the apparent similarity of INEL volcanism with equivalent, well-studied phenomena in other regions of active volcanism, particularly Hawaii and Iceland. The most significant hazards to INEL facilities are associated with basaltic volcanism, chiefly lava flows, which move slowly and mainly threaten property by inundation or burning. Related hazards are volcanic gases and tephra, and ground disturbance associated with the ascent of magma under the volcanic zones. Several volcanic zones are identified in the INEL area. These zones contain most of the volcanic vents and fissures of the region and are inferred to be the most probable sites of future INEL volcanism. Volcanic-recurrence estimates are given for each of the volcanic zones based on geochronology of the lavas, together with the results of field and petrographic investigations concerning the cogenetic relationships of INEL volcanic deposits and associated magma intrusion. Annual probabilities of basaltic volcanism within the INEL volcanic zones range from 6.2 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} per year (average 16,000-year interval between eruptions) for the axial volcanic zone near the southern INEL boundary and the Arco volcanic-rift zone near the western INEL boundary, to 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} per year (average 100,000-year interval between eruptions) for the Howe-East Butte volcanic rift zone, a geologically old and poorly defined feature of the central portion of INEL. Three volcanic hazard zone maps are developed for the INEL area: lava flow hazard zones, a tephra (volcanic ash) and gas hazard zone, and a ground-deformation hazard zone. The maps are useful in land-use planning, site selection, and safety analysis.

  8. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Becerril

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted in the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how, the spatial probability (where and the temporal probability (when of an eruption on the island. By studying the past eruptive behavior of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs. Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result is the first total qualitative volcanic hazard map of the island.

  9. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-07-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

  10. Volcanic Hazard Maps; the results and progress made by the IAVCEI Hazard Map working group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Lindsay, Jan; Wright, Heather

    2017-04-01

    The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk set up a working group on Hazard Maps in 2014. Since then, the group has led or co-organised three major workshops, and organized two thematic conference sessions. In particular we have initiated a series of workshops, named the "State of the Hazard Map" which we plan to continue (the first was held at COV8 (State of the Hazard Map 1) and second at COV9 (State of the Hazard Map 2) and the third will be held at IAVCEI General Assembly in Portland. The broad aim of these activities is to work towards an IAVCEI-endorsed considerations or guidelines document for volcanic hazard map generation. The workshops have brought together people from around the world working on volcanic hazard maps, and have had four primary objectives: 1) to review (and collect further data on) the diverse variety of methods and rationales currently used to develop maps; 2) to openly discuss approaches and experiences regarding how hazard maps are interpreted and used by different groups; 3) to discuss and prepare the IAVCEI Guidelines document; and lastly, 4) Discuss options for finalizing, publishing and disseminating the Guidelines document (e.g. wiki, report, open-source publication). This presentation will provide an update of the results and outcomes of those initiatives. This includes brief outcomes of the reviews undertaken, a survey that has been constructed in order to gather additional data, the planned structure for the guidelines documents and a summary of the key findings to date. The majority of the participants of these activities so far have come from volcano observatories or geological surveys, as these institutions commonly have primary responsibility for making operational hazard map. It is important however that others in the scientific community that work on quantification of volcanic hazard contribute to these guidelines. We therefore invite interested parties to become involved.

  11. A method for multi-hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas: an example from Kanlaon (Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Neri

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Hazard mapping in poorly known volcanic areas is complex since much evidence of volcanic and non-volcanic hazards is often hidden by vegetation and alteration. In this paper, we propose a semi-quantitative method based on hazard event tree and multi-hazard map constructions developed in the frame of the FP7 MIAVITA project. We applied this method to the Kanlaon volcano (Philippines, which is characterized by poor geologic and historical records. We combine updated geological (long-term and historical (short-term data, building an event tree for the main types of hazardous events at Kanlaon and their potential frequencies. We then propose an updated multi-hazard map for Kanlaon, which may serve as a working base map in the case of future unrest. The obtained results extend the information already contained in previous volcanic hazard maps of Kanlaon, highlighting (i an extensive, potentially active ~5 km long summit area striking north–south, (ii new morphological features on the eastern flank of the volcano, prone to receiving volcanic products expanding from the summit, and (iii important riverbeds that may potentially accumulate devastating mudflows. This preliminary study constitutes a basis that may help local civil defence authorities in making more informed land use planning decisions and in anticipating future risk/hazards at Kanlaon. This multi-hazard mapping method may also be applied to other poorly known active volcanoes.

  12. Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: Progress and problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.

    1989-05-01

    At the beginning of the twentieth century, volcanology began to emerge as a modern science as a result of increased interest in eruptive phenomena following some of the worst volcanic disasters in recorded history: Krakatau (Indonesia) in 1883 and Mont Pelée (Martinique), Soufrière (St. Vincent), and Santa María (Guatemala) in 1902. Volcanology is again experiencing a period of heightened public awareness and scientific growth in the 1980s, the worst period since 1902 in terms of volcanic disasters and crises. A review of hazards mitigation approaches and techniques indicates that significant advances have been made in hazards assessment, volcano monitoring, and eruption forecasting. For example, the remarkable accuracy of the predictions of dome-building events at Mount St. Helens since June 1980 is unprecedented. Yet a predictive capability for more voluminous and explosive eruptions still has not been achieved. Studies of magma-induced seismicity and ground deformation continue to provide the most systematic and reliable data for early detection of precursors to eruptions and shallow intrusions. In addition, some other geophysical monitoring techniques and geochemical methods have been refined and are being more widely applied and tested. Comparison of the four major volcanic disasters of the 1980s (Mount St. Helens, U.S.A. (1980), El Chichón, Mexico (1982); Galunggung, Indonesia (1982); and Nevado del Ruíz, Colombia (1985) illustrates the importance of predisaster geoscience studies, volcanic hazards assessments, volcano monitoring, contingency planning, and effective communications between scientists and authorities. The death toll (>22,000) from the Ruíz catastrophe probably could have been greatly reduced; the reasons for the tragically ineffective implementation of evacuation measures are still unclear and puzzling in view of the fact that sufficient warnings were given. The most pressing problem in the mitigation of volcanic and associated hazards on

  13. Results of the probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Youngs, R.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    1996-12-01

    The Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), has been conducted to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. The methodology for the PVHA project is summarized in Coppersmith and others (this volume). The judgments of ten earth scientists who were members of an expert panel were elicited to ensure that a wide range of approaches were considered. Each expert identified one or more approaches for assessing the hazard and they quantified their uncertainties in models and parameter values. Aggregated results are expressed as a probability distribution on the annual frequency of intersecting the proposed repository block. This paper presents some of the key results of the PVHA assessments. These results are preliminary; the final report for the study is planned to be submitted to DOE in April 1996.

  14. Hazardous indoor CO2 concentrations in volcanic environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viveiros, Fátima; Gaspar, João L; Ferreira, Teresa; Silva, Catarina

    2016-07-01

    Carbon dioxide is one of the main soil gases released silently and permanently in diffuse degassing areas, both in volcanic and non-volcanic zones. In the volcanic islands of the Azores (Portugal) several villages are located over diffuse degassing areas. Lethal indoor CO2 concentrations (higher than 10 vol %) were measured in a shelter located at Furnas village, inside the caldera of the quiescent Furnas Volcano (S. Miguel Island). Hazardous CO2 concentrations were detected not only underground, but also at the ground floor level. Multivariate regression analysis was applied to the CO2 and environmental time series recorded between April 2008 and March 2010 at Furnas village. The results show that about 30% of the indoor CO2 variation is explained by environmental variables, namely barometric pressure, soil water content and wind speed. The highest indoor CO2 concentrations were recorded during bad weather conditions, characterized by low barometric pressure together with rainfall periods and high wind speed. In addition to the spike-like changes observed on the CO2 time series, long-term oscillations were also identified and appeared to represent seasonal variations. In fact, indoor CO2 concentrations were higher during winter period when compared to the dry summer months. Considering the permanent emission of CO2 in various volcanic regions of the world, CO2 hazard maps are crucial and need to be accounted by the land-use planners and authorities.

  15. The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Arlin J.

    1999-01-01

    The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

  16. Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

    2015-01-01

    One of the most challenging aspects of managing a volcanic crisis is the interpretation of the monitoring data, so as to anticipate to the evolution of the unrest and implement timely mitigation actions. An unrest episode may include different stages or time intervals of increasing activity that may or may not precede a volcanic eruption, depending on the causes of the unrest (magmatic, geothermal or tectonic). Therefore, one of the main goals in monitoring volcanic unrest is to forecast whether or not such increase of activity will end up with an eruption, and if this is the case, how, when, and where this eruption will take place. As an alternative method to expert elicitation for assessing and merging monitoring data and relevant past information, we present a probabilistic method to transform precursory activity into the probability of experiencing a significant variation by the next time interval (i.e. the next step in the unrest), given its preceding evolution, and by further estimating the probability of the occurrence of a particular eruptive scenario combining monitoring and past data. With the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic crisis as a reference, we have developed such a method to assess short-term volcanic hazard using Bayesian inference.

  17. Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Sandri, Laura; Gasparini, Paolo; Newhall, Christopher; Boschi, Enzo

    2004-11-01

    We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained.

  18. Insight of the fusion behavior of volcanic ash: Implications for Volcanic ash Hazards to Aircraft Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenjia; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Küppers, Ulrich; Scheu, Bettina; Cimarelli, Corrado; Lavallée, Yan; Sohyun, Park; Gattermann, Ulf; Müller, Dirk; Dingwell, Donald Bruce

    2014-05-01

    The interaction of volcanic ash with jet turbines during via ingestion of ash into engines operating at supra-volcanic temperatures is widely recognized as a potentially fatal hazard for jet aircraft. In the past 12 years, more than 60 modern jet airplanes, mostly jumbo jets, have been damaged by drifting clouds of volcanic ash that have contaminated air routes and airport facilities. Seven of these encounters are known to have caused in flight loss of engine power to jumbo jets carrying a total of more than 2000 passengers. The fusibility of volcanic ash is believed to impact strongly its deposition in the hotter parts of jet engines. Despite this, explicit investigation of ash sintering using standardized techniques is in its infancy. Volcanic ash may vary widely in its physical state and chemical composition between and even within explosive volcanic eruptions. Thus a comparative study of the fusibility of ash which involves a standard recognized techniques would be highly desirable. In this work, nine samples of fine ash, deposited from co-pyroclastic offrom nine different volcanoes which cover a broad range of chemical composition, were investigated. Eight of them were collected from 2001-2009 eruptions. Because of the currently elevated level of eruptive activity and its potential hazards to aircraft safety and the remaining one sample was collected from a 12,121 ± 114 yr B.P. eruption. We used the method of accessing the behavior of deposit-forming impurities in high temperature boiler plants on the basis of observations of the change in shape and size of a cylindrical coal ash to study the fusion phenomena as well as determine the volcanic ash melting behavior by defining four characteristic temperatures (shrinkage temperature, deformation temperature, hemispherical temperature, and flow temperature) by means of heating microscope instrument and different thermal analysis methods. Here, we find that there are similar sticking ability and flow behavior of

  19. The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

  20. BET-VH: A Probabilistic Tool for Long- and Short-Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Selva, J.; Sandri, L.

    2005-12-01

    The purpose of this work is to present the probabilistic code BET-VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard) for long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment. BET-VH follows the probabilistic scheme recently published by Marzocchi et al. (2004; Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., vol. 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB003155), and it includes the fuzzy logic to minimize the effects of the choice of some particular thresholds of the model. In brief, BET-VH is based on a Bayesian approach applied to an Event Tree scheme that produces the probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested, using all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The general sequence is to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, to modify that using data. The procedure deals with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a formal way, through the estimation of probability distributions at each node of the Event Tree. In order to illustrate the potentiality of BET-VH in managing emergencies and in land use planning, we present applications of the code to some explosive volcanoes.

  1. Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, David P.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McNutt, Stephen R.

    2017-01-01

    The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO2

  2. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  3. Experimental evidence links volcanic particle characteristics to pyroclastic flow hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dellino, Pierfrancesco; Büttner, Ralf; Dioguardi, Fabio; Doronzo, Domenico M.; La Volpe, Luigi; Mele, Daniela; Sonder, Ingo; Sulpizio, Roberto; Zimanowski, Bernd

    2010-06-01

    Pyroclastic flows represent the most hazardous events of explosive volcanism, one striking example being the famous historical eruption of Vesuvius that destroyed Pompeii (AD 79). Much of our knowledge of the mechanics of pyroclastic flows comes from theoretical models and numerical simulations. Valuable data are also stored in the geological record of past eruptions, including the particles contained in pyroclastic deposits, but the deposit characteristics are rarely used for quantifying the destructive potential of pyroclastic flows. By means of experiments, we validate a model that is based on data from pyroclastic deposits. The model allows the reconstruction of the current's fluid-dynamic behaviour. Model results are consistent with measured values of dynamic pressure in the experiments, and allow the quantification of the damage potential of pyroclastic flows.

  4. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  5. Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-12-01

    During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

  6. UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F.V. Perry

    2005-10-13

    Basaltic volcanism poses a potential hazard to the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository because multiple episodes of basaltic volcanism have occurred in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) in the past 11 Ma. Intervals between eruptive episodes average about 1 Ma. Three episodes have occurred in the Quaternary at approximately 1.1 Ma (5 volcanoes), 350 ka (2 volcanoes), and 80 ka (1 volcano). Because Yucca Mountain lies within the Basin and Range Province, a significant portion of the pre-Quaternary volcanic history of the YMR may be buried in alluvial-filled basins. An exceptionally high-resolution aeromagnetic survey and subsequent drilling program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began in 2004 and is gathering data that will enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene and Miocene volcanism in the region (Figure 1). DOE has convened a ten-member expert panel of earth scientists that will use the information gathered to update probabilistic volcanic hazard estimates originally obtained by expert elicitation in 1996. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-trending ridges of eastward-tilted fault blocks that are bounded by north to northeast-trending normal faults. Topographic basins filled with up to 500 m of alluvium surround it to the east, south and west. In the past several decades, nearly 50 holes have been drilled in these basins, mainly for Yucca Mountain Project Site Characterization and the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program. Several of these drill holes have penetrated relatively deeply buried (300-400 m) Miocene basalt; a Pliocene basalt dated at 3.8 Ma was encountered at a relatively shallow depth (100 m) in the northern Amargosa Desert (Anomaly B in Figure 1). The current drilling program is the first to specifically target and characterize buried basalt. Based on the new aeromagnetic survey and previous air and ground magnetic surveys (Connor et al. 2000; O'Leary et al. 2002), at least eight

  7. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya. D. Muraviev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

  8. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  9. Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos, Tenerife (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, J.; Spence, R.; Calogero, E.; Ordoñez, A.; Felpeto, A.; Baxter, P.

    2008-12-01

    Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).

  10. Geophysics of Volcanic Landslide Hazards: The Inside Story

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, C.; Deszcz-Pan, M.; Bedrosian, P. A.

    2013-05-01

    Flank collapses of volcanoes pose significant potential hazards, including triggering lahars, eruptions, and tsunamis. Significant controls on the stability of volcanoes are the distribution of hydrothermal alteration and the location of groundwater. Groundwater position, abundance, and flow rates within a volcano affect the transmission of fluid pressure and the transport of mass and heat. Interaction of groundwater with acid magmatic gases can lead to hydrothermal alteration that mechanically weakens rocks and makes them prone to failure and flank collapse. Therefore, detecting the presence and volume of hydrothermally altered rocks and shallow ground water is critical for evaluating landslide hazards. High-resolution helicopter magnetic and electromagnetic (HEM) data collected over the rugged, ice-covered Mount Adams, Mount Baker, Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens (Washington) and Mount Iliamna (Alaska) volcanoes, reveal the distribution of alteration, water and ice thickness essential to evaluating volcanic landslide hazards. These data, combined with geological mapping, other geophysical data and rock property measurements, indicate the presence of appreciable thicknesses (>500 m) of water-saturated hydrothermally altered rock west of the modern summit of Mount Rainier in the Sunset Amphitheater region and in the central core of Mount Adams north of the summit. Water-saturated alteration at Mount Baker is restricted to thinner (glaciers on Mount Iliamna. Removal of ice and snow during eruptions and landslide can result in lahars and floods. Ice thickness measurements critical for flood and mudflow hazards studies are very sparse on most volcanoes. The HEM data are used to estimate ice thickness over portions of Mount Baker and Mount Adams volcanoes. The best estimates for ice thickness are obtained over relatively low resistivity (<600 ohm-m) ground for the main ice cap on Mount Adams and over most of the summit of Mount Baker. The modeled distribution of

  11. Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    (Hibiscus sabdariffa). Recently it has established tomato and green pepper crops in greenhouses. The regional commercial activities are concentrated in the localities of Ixtlán, Jala and Ahuacatlán. The updated hazard maps are: a) Hazard map of pyroclastic flows, b) Hazard map of lahars and debris flow, and c) Hazard map of ash-fall. The cartographic and database information obtained will be the basis for updating the Operational Plan of the Ceboruco Volcano by the State Civil & Fire Protection Unit of Nayarit, Mexico, and the urban development plans of surrounding municipalities, in order to reduce their vulnerability to the hazards of the volcanic activity.

  12. Felsic volcanism in a basic shield (El Hierro, Canary Islands). Implications in terms of volcanic hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Becerril Carretero, Laura; Martí Molist, Joan; Meletlidis, Stavros; Galindo Jiménez, Inés

    2014-05-01

    the style and the spatial extent of the studied eruption, a future event with similar characteristics would have a serious impact on the population, infrastructures, and economy of the island of El Hierro. For this reason it is clearly of great importance to assess the potential volcanic hazard on the island. This research was partially funded by the MINECO grant CGL2011-16144-E and the European Commission (FT7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: "VUELCO").

  13. Spatio-temporal occurrence of eruptions in El Hierro (Canary Islands). Sequential steps for long-term volcanic hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; María Morales, José; Galindo, Inés; Geyer, Adelina

    2014-05-01

    Long term volcanic hazard assessment requires the attainment of several sequential steps, including the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios to get qualitative and representative results. Volcanic hazard assessment has not been yet systematically conducted in the Canary Islands, in spite of being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest and latest island affected by an eruption in the Canary Islands. We analyze the past eruptive activity (how), the spatial probability (where), and the temporal probability (when) on the island. Looking at the past eruptive behavior of the island, and assuming future eruptive patterns will be similar, we try to identify the most likely set of volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards that could occur in the future (eg. lava flows, pyroclastic fallout, and pyroclastic density currents) and estimate their probability of occurrence. The final result shows the first volcanic hazard map of the island. This study represents a step forward in the evaluation of long term volcanic hazard at El Hierro Island with regard to previous studies. The obtained results should represent the main pillars on which to build risk mitigation programs as it is required for territorial planning and to develop emergency plans. This research was partially funded by IGME, CSIC and the European Commission (FT7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: "VUELCO"), and MINECO grant GL2011-16144-E.

  14. Volcanic hazard and risk assessment in a multi-source volcanic area: the example of Napoli city (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Alberico

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The possible emplacement of pyroclastic fall and flow products from Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio represents a threat for the population living in Napoli city. For this area, the volcanic hazard was always partially investigated to define the hazard related to the Campi Flegrei or to the Somma-Vesuvio activity one at a time. A new volcanic hazard and risk assessment, at the municipality scale, as a vital tool for decision-making about territorial management and future planning, is presented here.

    In order to assess the hazard related to the explosive activity of both sources, we integrated the results of field studies and numerical simulations, to evaluate the future possibility for Napoli to be hit by the products of an explosive eruption. This is defined for the Somma Vesuvio central volcano through the sum of "field frequency" based on the thickness and distribution of past deposits (Lirer et al., 2001, and for the Campi Flegrei volcanic field by suitably processing simulated events based on numerical modelling (Alberico et al., 2002; Costa et al., 2009. Aiming at volcanic risk assessment, the hazard areas were joined with the exposure map, considered for our purposes as the economical value of artefacts exposed to hazard. We defined four risk classes, and argued that the medium and low-very low risk classes have the largest extent in Napoli municipality, whereas only few zones located in the eastern part of the city and in the westernmost coastal area show a high risk, owing to the correspondence of high economical value and high hazard.

  15. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2017-07-01

    Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  16. Fusion characteristics of volcanic ash relevant to aviation hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenjia; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Damby, David E.; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Cimarelli, Corrado; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2014-04-01

    The fusion dynamics of volcanic ash strongly impacts deposition in hot parts of jet engines. In this study, we investigate the sintering behavior of volcanic ash using natural ash of intermediate composition, erupted in 2012 at Santiaguito Volcano, Guatemala. A material science procedure was followed in which we monitored the geometrical evolution of cylindrical-shaped volcanic ash compact upon heating from 50 to 1400°C in a heating microscope. Combined morphological, mineralogical, and rheological analyses helped define the evolution of volcanic ash during fusion and sintering and constrain their sticking potential as well as their ability to flow at characteristic temperatures. For the ash investigated, 1240°C marks the onset of adhesion and flowability. The much higher fusibility of ash compared to that of typical test sands demonstrates for the need of a more extensive fusion characterization of volcanic ash in order to mitigate the risk posed on jet engine operation.

  17. First-order estimate of the Canary Islands plate-scale stress field: Implications for volcanic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, A.; Martí, J.; Villaseñor, A.

    2016-06-01

    In volcanic areas, the existing stress field is a key parameter controlling magma generation, location and geometry of the magmatic plumbing systems and the distribution of the resulting volcanism at surface. Therefore, knowing the stress configuration in the lithosphere at any scale (i.e. local, regional and plate-scale) is fundamental to understand the distribution of volcanism and, subsequently, to interpret volcanic unrest and potential tectonic controls of future eruptions. The objective of the present work is to provide a first-order estimate of the plate-scale tectonic stresses acting on the Canary Islands, one of the largest active intraplate volcanic regions of the World. In order to obtain the orientation of the minimum and maximum horizontal compressive stresses, we perform a series of 2D finite element models of plate scale kinematics assuming plane stress approximation. Results obtained are used to develop a regional model, which takes into account recognized archipelago-scale structural discontinuities. Maximum horizontal compressive stress directions obtained are compared with available stress, geological and geodynamic data. The methodology used may be easily applied to other active volcanic regions, where a first order approach of their plate/regional stresses can be essential information to be used as input data for volcanic hazard assessment models.

  18. PyBetVH: A Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Anne Thompson, Mary

    2015-06-01

    PyBetVH is a completely new, free, open-source and cross-platform software implementation of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH), a tool for estimating the probability of any magmatic hazardous phenomenon occurring in a selected time frame, accounting for all the uncertainties. New capabilities of this implementation include the ability to calculate hazard curves which describe the distribution of the exceedance probability as a function of intensity (e.g., tephra load) on a grid of points covering the target area. The computed hazard curves are (i) absolute (accounting for the probability of eruption in a given time frame, and for all the possible vent locations and eruptive sizes) and (ii) Bayesian (computed at different percentiles, in order to quantify the epistemic uncertainty). Such curves allow representation of the full information contained in the probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) and are well suited to become a main input to quantitative risk analyses. PyBetVH allows for interactive visualization of both the computed hazard curves, and the corresponding Bayesian hazard/probability maps. PyBetVH is designed to minimize the efforts of end users, making PVHA results accessible to people who may be less experienced in probabilistic methodologies, e.g. decision makers. The broad compatibility of Python language has also allowed PyBetVH to be installed on the VHub cyber-infrastructure, where it can be run online or downloaded at no cost. PyBetVH can be used to assess any type of magmatic hazard from any volcano. Here we illustrate how to perform a PVHA through PyBetVH using the example of analyzing tephra fallout from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), New Zealand, and highlight the range of outputs that the tool can generate.

  19. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments of Pyroclastic Density Currents: ongoing practices and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Ramona Stefanescu, Elena; Patra, Abani; Marzocchi, Warner; Costa, Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Explosive volcanoes and, especially, Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) pose an enormous threat to populations living in the surroundings of volcanic areas. Difficulties in the modeling of PDCs are related to (i) very complex and stochastic physical processes, intrinsic to their occurrence, and (ii) to a lack of knowledge about how these processes actually form and evolve. This means that there are deep uncertainties (namely, of aleatory nature due to point (i) above, and of epistemic nature due to point (ii) above) associated to the study and forecast of PDCs. Consequently, the assessment of their hazard is better described in terms of probabilistic approaches rather than by deterministic ones. What is actually done to assess probabilistic hazard from PDCs is to couple deterministic simulators with statistical techniques that can, eventually, supply probabilities and inform about the uncertainties involved. In this work, some examples of both PDC numerical simulators (Energy Cone and TITAN2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo sampling -MC-, Polynomial Chaos Quadrature -PCQ- and Bayesian Linear Emulation -BLE-) are presented, and their advantages, limitations and future potential are underlined. The key point in choosing a specific method leans on the balance between its related computational cost, the physical reliability of the simulator and the pursued target of the hazard analysis (type of PDCs considered, time-scale selected for the analysis, particular guidelines received from decision-making agencies, etc.). Although current numerical and statistical techniques have brought important advances in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment from PDCs, some of them may be further applicable to more sophisticated simulators. In addition, forthcoming improvements could be focused on three main multidisciplinary directions: 1) Validate the simulators frequently used (through comparison with PDC deposits and other simulators), 2) Decrease

  20. Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, L.; Glicken, H.; Ui, T.

    1987-01-01

    Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of

  1. Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevilacqua, Andrea; Isaia, Roberto; Neri, Augusto; Vitale, Stefano; Aspinall, Willy P.; Bisson, Marina; Flandoli, Franco; Baxter, Peter J.; Bertagnini, Antonella; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Iannuzzi, Enrico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro

    2015-04-01

    Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.

  2. A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

  3. Collaborative studies target volcanic hazards in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bluth, Gregg J. S.; Rose, William I.

    Central America is the second-most consistently active volcanic zone on Earth, after Indonesia. Centuries of volcanic activity have produced a spectacular landscape of collapsed calderas, debris flows, and thick blankets of pyroclastic materials. Volcanic activity dominates the history, culture, and daily life of Central American countries.January 2002 marked the third consecutive year in which a diverse group of volcanologists and geophysicists conducted focused field studies in Central America. This type of multi-institutional collaboration reflects the growing involvement of a number of U.S. and non-U.S. universities, and of other organizations, in Guatemala and El Salvador (Table 1).

  4. Hazard assessment of explosive volcanism at Somma-Vesuvius

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    G. Mastrolorenzo; L. Pappalardo

    2010-01-01

    ...) class, in the Vesuvius area and its surroundings including Naples. Particularly, eruptions with VEI 3 would produce a fallout hazard within about 10 km mostly east of the volcano and a PDC hazard within about 2 km from the crater...

  5. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  6. Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

  7. ThinkHazard! - Linking natural hazard information to decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, B.; Fraser, S. A.; Simpson, A.; Balog, S.; Murnane, R. J.; Deparday, V.

    2016-12-01

    Development projects, from construction of schools, hospitals, bridges, or dams, to new agricultural programs are often at risk of being adversely affected by natural hazards in their design lifetime. The design of such projects must consider disaster and climate risks to ensure investment is sustainable and "disaster and climate proofed". A significant challenge for those who want incorporate climate and disaster risk into projects, is accessing appropriate and understandable information on which risks exist and how to reduce these risks. The result is that too few development projects properly consider the full range of hazards present, and are at high risk of being left unprepared down the line. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery has developed ThinkHazard!, an open-source, simple yet robust, online hazard screening tool providing hazard level at a user's specified location, for eight hazards. We describe the structure and development of ThinkHazard!, which is intended to be the first source of information for project managers unfamiliar with all the potential hazards in their project location, acting as a stepping stone or gateway to accessing more detailed information to incorporate disaster risk management in their projects.

  8. Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory, and the recent volcanic eruption of El Hierro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

    2012-04-01

    The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 years, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterise the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. Shortly after the publication of this method an eruption in the island of El Hierro took place for the first time in historical times, supporting our method and contributing towards the validation of

  9. Volcanic Hazard Map as a Tool of City Planning: Experiences at Galeras Volcano and the county of Pasto, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvache, M. L.

    2001-12-01

    Large populated areas located near active volcanoes emphasize the importance to take effective actions towards risk reduction. A volcanic hazard map is believed to be the first step in order to inform government officials, private institutions and community about the danger that poses a particular volcano. The hazard map is a tool that must be used to evaluate risk and elaborate risk map. The risk map must be used by decision makers to take measurements about the land-use accordingly with the hazard present in the area and to prepare contingency plans. In 1998 and 1999 the Colombian government pass a law, where every county of the country has to have a plan of land-use and development (POT) for the following 10 years. The POT must consider natural hazard and risk such as seismicity, landslide and volcanic activity. Without the plan, the county will not receive any economical support from the central government. In the county of Pasto, the largest city in the influence zone of Galeras volcano, the hazard map has been used to promote educational plan in schools, increasing public awareness of Galeras and its hazard, advise and persuade decision makers to consider Galeras hazard in the city development plans. On the other hand, the hazard map has been mistaken as a risk map and it has originated opposition due to the measurements taken as a consequence of the map. This presentation deal with the gain experience of using the hazard map as a tool of information and planing and the confrontation that any decision implies with political, social and economic interest.

  10. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  11. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. Volume II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M.; Wohletz, K.H.; Vaniman, D.T.; Gladney, E.; Bower, N.

    1986-01-01

    Volcanic hazard investigations during FY 1984 focused on five topics: the emplacement mechanism of shallow basalt intrusions, geochemical trends through time for volcanic fields of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone, the possibility of bimodal basalt-rhyolite volcanism, the age and process of enrichment for incompatible elements in young basalts of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region, and the possibility of hydrovolcanic activity. The stress regime of Yucca Mountain may favor formation of shallow basalt intrusions. However, combined field and drill-hole studies suggest shallow basalt intrusions are rare in the geologic record of the southern Great Basin. The geochemical patterns of basaltic volcanism through time in the NTS region provide no evidence for evolution toward a large-volume volcanic field or increases in future rates of volcanism. Existing data are consistent with a declining volcanic system comparable to the late stages of the southern Death Valley volcanic field. The hazards of bimodal volcanism in this area are judged to be low. The source of a 6-Myr pumice discovered in alluvial deposits of Crater Flat has not been found. Geochemical studies show that the enrichment of trace elements in the younger rift basalts must be related to an enrichment of their mantle source rocks. This geochemical enrichment event, which may have been metasomatic alteration, predates the basalts of the silicic episode and is, therefore, not a young event. Studies of crater dimensions of hydrovolcanic landforms indicate that the worst case scenario (exhumation of a repository at Yucca Mountain by hydrovolcanic explosions) is unlikely. Theoretical models of melt-water vapor explosions, particularly the thermal detonation model, suggest hydrovolcanic explosion are possible at Yucca Mountain. 80 refs., 21 figs., 5 tabs.

  12. Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2010-05-01

    One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

  13. New strategies for volcanic hazard and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Biasse, Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most intense and majestic display of natu- re’s power that can dramatically impact the Earth system and our modern societies. The recent 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull demonstrated how eruptions of moderate size can impact modern globalised societies. Most of the European airspace was closed for a week and the air traffic over the North Atlantic was interrupted. 313 airports were closed, 104,000 flights cancelled, 10 million passengers stranded, causing a...

  14. Hazard assessment of explosive volcanism at Somma-Vesuvius

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    G. Mastrolorenzo; L. Pappalardo

    2010-01-01

      A probabilistic approach based on the available volcanological data on past Somma-Vesuvius eruptions has been developed to produce hazard-zone maps for fallout, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs...

  15. Detecting river sediments to assess hazardous materials at volcanic lake using advanced remote sensing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saepuloh, Asep; Fitrianingtyas, Chintya

    2016-05-01

    The Toba Caldera formed from large depression of Quaternary volcanism is a remarkable feature at the Earth surface. The last Toba super eruptions were recorded around 73 ka and produced the Youngest Toba Tuff about 2,800 km3. Since then, there is no record of significant volcanic seismicity at Toba Volcanic Complex (TVC). However, the hydrothermal activities are still on going as presented by the existence of hot springs and alteration zones at the northwest caldera. The hydrothermal fluids probably containing some chemical compositions mixed with surficial water pollutant and contaminated the Toba Lake. Therefore, an environmental issues related to the existence of chemical composition and degradation of water clearness in the lake had been raised in the local community. The pollutant sources are debatable between natural and anthropogenic influences because some human activities grow rapidly at and around the lake such as hotels, tourisms, husbandry, aquaculture, as well as urbanization. Therefore, obtaining correct information about the source materials floating at the surface of the Toba Lake is crucial for environmental and hazard mitigation purposes. Overcoming the problem, we presented this paper to assess the source possibility of floating materials at Toba Lake, especially from natural sources such as hydrothermal activities of TVC and river stream sediments. The Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) techniques using atmospherically corrected of Landsat-8 and colour composite of Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) were used to map the distribution of floating materials. The seven ground truth points were used to confirm the correctness of proposed method. Based on the SAM and PolSAR techniques, we could detect the interface of hydrothermal fluid at the lake surfaces. Various distributions of stream sediment were also detected from the river mouth to the lake. The influence possibilities of the upwelling process from the bottom floor of Toba Lake were also

  16. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

    1983-03-01

    Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt (<4 Myr) of the NTS region and southern Death Valley area, California, indicate an enrichment in incompatible elements, with the exception of rubidium. The conditional probability of recurring basaltic volcanism and disruption of a repository by that event is bounded by the range of 10{sup -8} to 10{sup -10} as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes.

  17. People's behaviour in the face of volcanic hazards: Perspectives from Javanese communities, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavigne, Franck; De Coster, Benjamin; Juvin, Nancy; Flohic, François; Gaillard, Jean-Christophe; Texier, Pauline; Morin, Julie; Sartohadi, Junun

    2008-05-01

    This paper is concerned with the way in which the Indonesian people living on the slopes or near active volcanoes behave in the face of volcanic threats. It explores the role of three factors in the shaping of this behaviour, e.g. risk perception, cultural beliefs and socio-economic constraints. The paper is mainly based on field data collected during the last 5 years on four volcanoes in Central Java, namely Sumbing, Sindoro, Dieng, and Merapi. The common assumption that hazard knowledge, risk perception and people's behaviour are closely related and conditional on volcanic activity is debatable in the Indonesian context. Factors that play a role in hazard knowledge—e.g. basic knowledge of volcanic processes, personal experience of volcanic crisis, time lapsed since the last volcanic eruption, etc.—differ from those that influence risk perception. Indeed, local people often underestimate the scientifically or statistically estimated risk. This poor risk perception is characterized by an approximate personal representation of the volcanic processes, an excess of trust in concrete countermeasures, the presence of a physical-visual obstructions, or cultural beliefs related to former eruptions. In addition, the commonly-acknowledged factors that influence hazard knowledge and/or risk perception may be at odds with the non hazard-related factors that prompt or force people to live in or to exploit areas at risk. These factors may be either socio-cultural—e.g., attachment to place, cultural beliefs, etc.—or social and socio-economical —e.g., standard of living, strength of people's livelihoods, well-being. These factors are fundamental in explaining the short-term behaviour in the face of a developing threat during a volcanic crisis.

  18. An Interdisciplinary Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment, Risk Perception and Social Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, H. N.

    2011-12-01

    During a volcanic crisis there often exists a gap in communication among scientists, decision makers and members of the affected community. While the physical processes of these events are of scientific interest and may be well understood by the scientists involved, it is the communication of the risk and possible consequences to human population within the hazard zone that is most important during the actual time of a crisis. The use of hazard maps is often an integral tool employed by scientists to communicate risk to decision makers and the general public; unfortunately, in regions that are commonly affected by volcanic events, volcanic hazard maps may be too abstract for use by the general public. The objective of this paper is to open a discussion about an interdisciplinary approach to risk communication using a four-pronged methodology: 1) identification of multiple communities that have experienced a volcanic crisis over the last 20years and an examination of the events, decisions, responses and outcomes before, during and after; 2) participatory mapping and hazards assessments with community members and decision makers to define a community's geospatial orientation relative to the hazard source; 3) develop new or modify and incorporate existing hazard educational curricula; and 4) integrate a GIS and cartographic component that will produce quality maps that communicate both hazard and risk based on spatial and social variables. The long term goal is to develop a model that will allow us to effectively identify vulnerable populations, communicate risk and map both the hazard and the associated risk in a manner that can be interpreted at all levels in the decision making process.

  19. Preliminary overview map of volcanic hazards in the 48 conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullineaux, D.R.

    1976-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and related phenomena can be expected to occur in the Western United States, and in some places are potentially hazardous enough to be considered in longe-range land-use planning. But the immediate risk from volcanic hazards is low because eruptions are so infrequent in the conterminous United States that few, if any, occur during any one person 1s lifetime. Furthermore, severely destructive effects of eruptions, other than extremely rare ones of catastrophic scale, probably would be limited to areas within a few tens of kilometers downvalley or downwind from a volcano. Thus, the area seriously endangered by any one eruption would be only a very small part of the Western United States. The accompanying map identifies areas in which volcanic hazards pose some degree of risk, and shows that the problem is virtually limited to the far western States. The map also shows the possible areal distribution of several kinds of dangerous eruptive events and indicates the relative likelihood of their occurrence at various volcanoes. The kinds of events described here as hazards are those that can occur suddenly and with little or no warning; they do not include long-term geologic processes. Table 1 summarizes the origin and some characteristics of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena. The map is diagrammatic. It does not show the specific location of the next expected eruption , because such an event cannot be reliably predicted . Instead, the map shows general areas or zones that, over a long period of time, are relatively likely to be affected in one or more places by various kinds of hazardous volcanic events. However, only a small part of one of these areas would be affected by any single eruption.

  20. Effect of gas emissions from Tianchi volcano (NE China) on environment and its potential volcanic hazards

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO; Zhengfu; LIU; Jiaqi; HAN; Jingtai; HE; Huaiyu; DAI; Guoliang; YOU; Haitao

    2006-01-01

    The Tianchi volcano in the Changbai Mountains is located on the boundary between China and North Korea. There are many times of eruptions of the Tianchi volcano during the Holocene. One of its large eruptions occurred around 1000 years ago dated by 14C method and historical records. Composition of products of the largest Tianchi volcanic eruption studied is characterized by comenditic Plinian fallout and unwelded ignimbrite, which are mainly distributed in China and North Korea. Caldera is about 4.4 km long and 3.4 km wide, which had filled with water (e.g. Tianchi Lake). The Tianchi volcanic cone is about 2700 m high above sea level. The Tianchi Lake is located on the summit of the volcanic cone, that is also highest peak of the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China. This study analyzed Cl, F, S and H2O concentrations of melt inclusions in the phenocryst minerals (anorthoclase and quartz) and co-existing matrix glasses using the electron microprobe and estimated environmental effect of Tianchi volcanic gases. The authors proposed a new method to evaluate future eruption of active volcano and estimate potential volcanic hazards based on contents of volatile emissions. Using this method, we made a perspective of future volcanic hazard in this region.

  1. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  2. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

    2000-01-01

    The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

  3. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  4. Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

    2014-12-01

    Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

  5. Hazards posed by distal ash transport and sedimentation from extreme volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahagian, D. L.; Proussevitch, A. A.; White, C. M.; Klewicki, J.

    2016-12-01

    Volcanic ash injected into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere poses a significant hazard to aviation and human security as a result of extreme, explosive eruptions. These have occurred in the recent geologic past, and are expected to occur again, now that modern society and its infrastructure is far more vulnerable than ever before. Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and sedimentation of Ash particles is controlled by fundamentally different processes than control other particles normally transported in the atmosphere due to their complex internal and external morphology. It is thus necessary to elucidate the fundamental processes of particle-fluid interactions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, where most air traffic resides, and thereby enhance the capability of volcanic ash transport models to predict the ash concentration in distal regions that pose aviation and other hazards. Current Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models use simplistic stokes settling velocities for larger ash particles, and treat smaller ash particles (that are a large part of the hazard) merely as passive tracers. By incorporating the dynamics of fine ash particle-atmosphere interactions into existing VATD models provides the foundation for a much more accurate assessment framework applied to the hazard posed by specific future extreme eruptions, and thus dramatically reduce both the risk to air traffic and the cost of airport and flight closures, in addition to human health, water quality, agricultural, infrastructure hazards, as well as ice cap albedo and short term climate impacts.

  6. Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

  7. Combining observations and model simulations to reduce the hazard of Etna volcanic ash plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scollo, Simona; Boselli, Antonella; Coltelli, Mauro; Leto, Giuseppe; Pisani, Gianluca; Prestifilippo, Michele; Spinelli, Nicola; Wang, Xuan; Zanmar Sanchez, Ricardo

    2014-05-01

    Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world with a recent activity characterized by powerful lava fountains that produce several kilometres high eruption columns and disperse volcanic ash in the atmosphere. It is well known that, to improve the volcanic ash dispersal forecast of an ongoing explosive eruption, input parameters used by volcanic ash dispersal models should be measured during the eruption. In this work, in order to better quantify the volcanic ash dispersal, we use data from the video-surveillance system of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, and from the lidar system together with a volcanic ash dispersal model. In detail, the visible camera installed in Catania, 27 km from the vent is able to evaluate the evolution of column height with time. The Lidar, installed at the "M.G. Fracastoro" astrophysical observatory (14.97° E, 37.69° N) of the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica in Catania, located at a distance of 7 km from the Etna summit craters, uses a frequency doubled Nd:YAG laser source operating at a 532-nm wavelength, with a repetition rate of 1 kHz. Backscattering and depolarization values measured by the Lidar system can give, with a certain degree of uncertainty, an estimation of volcanic ash concentration in atmosphere. The 12 August 2011 activity is considered a perfect test case because volcanic plume was retrieved by both camera and Lidar. We evaluated the mass eruption rate from the column height and used best fit procedures comparing simulated volcanic ash concentrations with those extracted by the Lidar data. During this event, powerful lava fountains were well visible at about 08:30 GMT and a sustained eruption column was produced since about 08:55 GMT. Ash emission completely ceased around 11:30 GMT. The proposed approach is an attempt to produce more robust ash dispersal forecasts reducing the hazard to air traffic during Etna volcanic crisis.

  8. Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population are aware about the governmental commitment to assume a strategic planning for mitigation, facing a volcanic emergency. Recently, university undergraduate students from Chile and Argentina are networking to acquire the skills needed for a better preparedness to the next volcanic eruption.

  9. Global Assessment of Volcanic Debris Hazards from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Hazard (slope stability) assessment for different sectors of volcano edifices was successfully obtained from volcanoes in North and South America. The assessment entailed Hyperion images to locate portions of the volcano that were hydrothermally altered to clay rich rocks with zones that were also rich in alunite and other minerals. The identified altered rock zones were field checked and sampled. The rock strength of these zones was calculated from the field and laboratory measurements. Volcano modeling utilizing the distinct element method and limit equilibrium technique, with the calculated strength data was used to assess stability and deformation of the edifice. Modeling results give indications of possible failure volumes, velocities and direction. The models show the crucial role hydrothermally weak rock plays in reducing the strength o the volcano edifice and the rapid identification of weak rock through remote sensing techniques. Volcanoes were assessed in the Cascade Range (USA), Mexico, and Chile (ongoing).

  10. Volcanic hazard assessment in the Phlegraean Fields: A contribution based on stratigraphic and historical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosi, M.; Santacroce, R. (Universita di Pisa (Italy) Gruppo Nazionale per la Vulcanologia, Roma (Italy))

    1984-01-01

    Phenomena occurring since 1982 in the Phlegraean fields, interpreted as precursors of a potential renewal of volcanic activity, have forced the authors to anticipate some conclusions of a volcanic-hazard study based on the reconstruction of past eruptions in the area, to serve as basis for civil defense preparedness plans. The eruptive history of the Phlegraean Fields suggests a progressive decrease with time in the strength of eruptive phenomena paralleling a migration of vents towards the center of the Phlegraean caldera. Studies concerning the volcanic risk zonation were therefore concentrated on activities during the last 4,500 years and two eruptions (Monte Nuovo and Agnano Monte Spina), that occurred in 1538 and 4,400 years B.P., respectively were selected as the reference eruptions from which possible eruption scenarios were drawn.

  11. International collaboration towards a global analysis of volcanic hazards and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin, Susan; Duncan, Melanie; Volcano Model Network, Global

    2017-04-01

    Approximately 800 million people live within 100km of an active volcano and such environments are often subject to multiple natural hazards. Volcanic eruptions and related volcanic hazards are less frequent than many other natural hazards but when they occur they can have immediate and long-lived impacts so it is important that they are not overlooked in a multi-risk assessment. Based on experiences to date, it's clear that natural hazards communities need to address a series of challenges in order to move to a multi-hazard approach to risk assessment. Firstly, the need to further develop synergies and coordination within our own communities at local to global scales. Secondly, we must collaborate and identify opportunities for harmonisation across natural hazards communities: for instance, by ensuring our databases are accessible and meet certain standards, a variety of users will be then able to contribute and access data. Thirdly, identifying the scale and breadth of multi-risk assessments needs to be co-defined with decision-makers, which will constrain the relevant potential cascading/compounding hazards to consider. Fourthly, and related to all previous points, multi-risk assessments require multi-risk knowledge, requiring interdisciplinary perspectives, as well as discipline specific expertise. The Global Volcano Model network (GVM) is a growing international network of (public and private) institutions and organisations, which have the collective aim of identifying and reducing volcanic risks. GVM's values embody collaboration, scientific excellence, open-access (wherever possible) and, above all, public good. GVM highlights and builds on the best research available within the volcanological community, drawing on the work of IAVCEI Commissions and other research initiatives. It also builds on the local knowledge of volcano observatories and collaborating scientists, ensuring that global efforts are underpinned by local evidence. Some of GVM's most

  12. Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

  13. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

    2014-05-01

    The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  14. An Assessment of the Volcanic Hazards on the Island of Heimaey, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, R.

    2005-12-01

    The Vestmannaeyjar Islands, off the southern coast of Iceland, mark the most recent area of activity in the southward propagation of the East Volcanic Zone. The eruptions of the islands of Surtsey in 1963 to 1967 and of Heimaey in 1973 indicate a phase of increased activity. The Vestmannaeyjar Islands are thought to be developing into the central (composite) volcano within the volcanic system of the same name. The magma of the 1973 Heimaey eruption is of the same general composition, although slightly more evolved, as that of the 1963 Surtsey eruption. Increased volcanic activity in the area automatically creates increased risk to the island of Heimaey with a population of 5300. Thus a study of the evolution of the island up to and including the 1973 eruption was carried out and a hazard map compiled for the island. The hazard map encapsulates the areas of highest risk, as well as alternative evacuation routes from the island. The logistics of an evacuation of the island are an issue that needs to be addressed; following the favorable evacuation during the 1973 eruption, a false sense of security could be said to be in place. The study also looked at the awareness of the population and their education as regards the volcanic hazards in the area. The hazard map for the island recognizes that a future eruption could be further away from the populated areas of the island, though this does alter the risk involved. A future eruption could occur to the northeast of the island, in which case it would block the natural harbor. Aside from evacuation in an emergency, further questions arise from this study in relation to the future of the island and its predominant fishing industry. The main conclusions of the study are, first, that the people of the island feel that an imminent eruption of the Katla Volcano on the mainland poses perhaps the only future volcanic hazard. Katla Volcano being on the mainland, its future eruption will not much affect them. A second main

  15. Volcanic-Ash Hazards to Aviation—Changes and Challenges since the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Tupper, A.; Mastin, L. G.; Lechner, P.

    2012-12-01

    In response to the severe disruptions to civil aviation that resulted from atmospheric transport of ash from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) quickly formed the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF), charging it to support the accelerated development of a global risk-management framework for volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. Recognizing the need for scientifically based advice on best methods to detect ash in the atmosphere and depict zones of hazardous airspace, the IVATF sought input from the global scientific community, primarily by means of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group which was established in May 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics to serve as a scientific resource for ICAO. The IVATF finished its work in June 2012 (see http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/ivatf/Pages/default.aspx for a record of its results). A major science-based outcome is that production of charts depicting areas of airspace expected to have specific ash-concentration values (e.g. 4 mg/cu. m) will not be required of the world's nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). The VAACs are responsible for issuing warning information to the aviation sector regarding ash-cloud position and expected movement. Forecast concentrations in these charts are based primarily on dispersion models that have at least an order of magnitude in uncertainty in their output and therefore do not delineate hazardous airspace with the level of confidence needed by the aviation sector. The recommended approach to improving model-forecast accuracy is to assimilate diverse observations (e.g., satellite thermal-infrared measurements, lidar, radar, direct airborne sampling, visual sightings, etc.) into model simulations; doing that during an eruption in the demanding environment of aviation operations is a substantial challenge. A

  16. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, Miguel A.; Delgado-Granados, Hugo; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2012-11-01

    During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles' maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum "launching" conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  17. Volcanic hazard mapping in the Philippines using remote sensing and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Siefko; Fernandez-Alonso, Max; Kervyn, Francois; Bornas, Mariton

    1998-12-01

    One of the 22 active volcanoes in the Philippines is Mt. Bulusan. The volcano erupted more than 15 times recent history, but the majority of these eruptions were mild phreatic eruptions. Field evidence shows however that Bulusan is capable of producing lava flows, domes, pyroclastic currents and lahars. Bulusan therefore poses a potentially major risk to the dense population at the footslopes of the volcano. Hence the volcano is constantly monitored with seismic equipment. To mitigate the potential hazards posed by this volcano, a volcanic hazard mapping program has been undertaken. Because of lacking existing geological and geographical data, it was decided to use optical and radar remote sensing techniques to acquire additional data. A GIS database was created at a medium scale, which was used as a reference for the development of preliminary hazard maps for each of the volcanic hazards that have been identified. An elementary approach, making use of the 'Energy cone' concept, was followed to outline the areas subject to potential pyroclastic flows and surges. Lava- and lahar flow path predictions were made based on the Digital Terrain Model (DTM).

  18. Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2016-04-01

    The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

  19. The Volcanic Hazards Simulation: Students behaving expert-like when faced with challenging, authentic tasks during a simulated Volcanic Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohaney, J. A.; kennedy, B.; Brogt, E.; Gravley, D.; Wilson, T.; O'Steen, B.

    2011-12-01

    This qualitative study investigates behaviors and experiences of upper-year geosciences undergraduate students during an intensive role-play simulation, in which the students interpret geological data streams and manage a volcanic crisis event. We present the development of the simulation, its academic tasks, (group) role assignment strategies and planned facilitator interventions over three iterations. We aim to develop and balance an authentic, intensive and highly engaging capstone activity for volcanology and geo-hazard courses. Interview data were collected from academic and professional experts in the fields of Volcanology and Hazard Management (n=11) in order to characterize expertise in the field, characteristics of key roles in the simulation, and to validate the authenticity of tasks and scenarios. In each iteration, observations and student artifacts were collected (total student participants: 68) along with interviews (n=36) and semi-structured, open-ended questionnaires (n=26). Our analysis of these data indicates that increasing the structure (i.e. organization, role-specific tasks and responsibilities) lessens non-productive group dynamics, which allows for an increase in difficulty of academic tasks within the simulation without increasing the cognitive load on students. Under these conditions, students exhibit professional expert-like behaviours, in particular in the quality of decision-making, communication skills and task-efficiency. In addition to illustrating the value of using this simulation to teach geosciences concepts, this study has implications for many complex situated-learning activities.

  20. Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sea Eun Cho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

  1. "Canary Islands, a volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean": a 7 year effort of public awareness on volcano hazards and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Fátima; Calvo, David; Pérez, Nemesio M.; Padrón, Eleazar; Melián, Gladys; Padilla, Germán; Barrancos, José; Hernández, Pedro A.; Asensio-Ramos, María; Alonso, Mar

    2016-04-01

    "Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" is an educational program born from the need to inform and educate citizens residing in the Canary Islands on the various hazards associated to volcanic phenomena. The Canary Islands is the only territory of Spain that hosts active volcanism, as is shown by the 16 historical eruptions that have occurred throughout this territory, being the last one a submarine eruption taking place on October 12, 2011, offshore El Hierro Island. In the last 7 years, ITER as well as INVOLCAN have been performing an educative program focused on educating to the population about the benefits of a volcanic territory, volcanic hazards, how to reduce volcanic risk and the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands. "Canary Islands: A volcanic window in the Atlantic Ocean" consists of three units, the first two dedicated to the IAVCEI/UNESCO videos "Understanding Volcanic Hazards" and "Reducing Volcanic Risk" and the third one dedicated to the management of volcanic risk in the Canary Islands, as well as some other aspects of the volcanic phenomena. Generally the three units are shown consecutively on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This educative program has been roaming all around the 88 municipalities of the archipelago since this initiative started in 2008. The total number of attendees since then amounts to 18,911 people. The increase of assistance was constant until 2011, with annual percentages of 7.8, 17.1 and 20.9 respectively, regarding to ratio assistant/municipality. Despite the heterogeneity of the audience, the main audience is related to aged people of 45 years and older. This could be related to the memories of the recent eruptions occurred at La Palma Island in 1949 and 1971. It is important to point out that many of those people attending the educative program are representatives of local government (i.e. civil protection). Regarding the interest of the audience, the educational program attendees have

  2. Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gunkel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account.

    Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

  3. An updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayona, J. A., Sr.; Suarez, G.; Zuniga, R. R.; Jaimes, M. Á.

    2014-12-01

    The Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt is the volcanic arc located in Central Mexico. This zone is not as seismically active as some other regions in Mexico, such as the subduction zone along the Pacific coast. However, there is evidence of major historical earthquakes (M > 7) occurring on the volcanic belt near densely populated cities such as Mexico City, Guadalajara and Morelia. Furthermore, almost 50% of the population of the country lives in cities and towns located on the Volcanic Belt. Using empirical magnitude-Intensity regressions, data obtained from historical descriptions of earthquakes were calibrated with instrumental data to determine their moment magnitude in order to create a complete seismic catalogue of this geological province. We propose a methodology to solve the problem of merging both historical and instrumental datasets. The method consists of dividing our catalogue into three different segments, according to the temporary nature and magnitude of our records. This segmentation was made considering the cut-off magnitude of our catalogue. In this way, we determined three Gutenberg-Richter distributions and correlated them geometrical and statistically. Based on the local seismic sources and using Bayesian statistics as well as appropriate seismic waves attenuation models, we generate seismic hazard maps that would be useful for more than 40 million people that live in the zone.

  4. Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

  5. Fractal analysis of experimentally generated pyroclasts: A tool for volcanic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perugini, Diego; Kueppers, Ulrich

    2012-06-01

    Rapid decompression experiments on natural volcanic rocks mimick explosive eruptions. Fragment size distributions (FSD) of such experimentally generated pyroclasts are investigated using fractal geometry. The fractal dimension of fragmentation, D, of FSD is measured for samples from Unzen (Japan) and Popocatépetl (Mexico) volcanoes. Results show that: (i) FSD are fractal and can be quantified by measuring D values; (ii) D increases linearly with potential energy for fragmentation (PEF) and, thus, with increasing applied pressure; (iii) the rate of increase of D with PEF depends on open porosity: the higher the open porosity, the lower the increase of D with PEF; (iv) at comparable open porosity, samples display a similar behavior for any rock composition. The method proposed here has the potential to become a standard routine to estimate eruptive energy of past and recent eruptions using values of D and open porosity, providing an important step towards volcanic hazard assessment.

  6. Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggie, Travis W

    2009-09-01

    Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

  7. Investigating volcanic hazard in Cape Verde Islands through geophysical monitoring: network description and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, B.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.

    2014-02-01

    We describe a new geophysical network deployed in the Cape Verde Archipelago for the assessment and monitoring of volcanic hazards as well as the first results from the network. Across the archipelago, the ages of volcanic activity range from ca. 20 Ma to present. In general, older islands are in the east and younger ones are in the west, but there is no clear age progression of eruptive activity as widely separated islands have erupted contemporaneously on geological timescales. The overall magmatic rate is low, and there are indications that eruptive activity is episodic, with intervals between episodes of intense activity ranging from 1 to 4 Ma. Although only Fogo Island has experienced eruptions (mainly effusive) in the historic period (last 550 yr), Brava and Santo Antão have experienced numerous geologically recent eruptions, including violent explosive eruptions, and show felt seismic activity and geothermal activity. Evidence for recent volcanism in the other islands is more limited and the emphasis has therefore been on monitoring of the three critical islands of Fogo, Brava and Santo Antão, where volcanic hazard levels are highest. Geophysical monitoring of all three islands is now in operation. The first results show that on Fogo, the seismic activity is dominated by hydrothermal events and volcano-tectonic events that may be related to settling of the edifice after the 1995 eruption; in Brava by volcano-tectonic events (mostly offshore), and in Santo Antão by volcano-tectonic events, medium-frequency events and harmonic tremor. Both in Brava and in Santo Antão, the recorded seismicity indicates that relatively shallow magmatic systems are present and causing deformation of the edifices that may include episodes of dike intrusion.

  8. Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

    2011-10-01

    The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose

  9. Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sobradelo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

  10. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka)

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows)» has been deve...

  11. GIS-Based emergency and evacuation planning for volcanic hazards in New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, J. W.; Sabel, C. E.; Blumenthal, E.

    2005-01-01

    in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active...... (reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from CIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity...... volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent...

  12. Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Carrasco-Núñez, Gerardo

    2002-03-01

    Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.

  13. UQ -- Fast Surrogates Key to New Methodologies in an Operational and Research Volcanic Hazard Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, C. G.; Stefanescu, R. E. R.; Patra, A. K.; Bursik, M. I.; Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Jones, M.; Singla, P.; Singh, T.; Pitman, E. B.; Morton, D.; Webley, P.

    2014-12-01

    As the decision to construct a hazard map is frequently precipitated by the sudden initiation of activity at a volcano that was previously considered dormant, timely completion of the map is imperative. This prohibits the calculation of probabilities through direct sampling of a numerical ash-transport and dispersion model. In developing a probabilistic forecast for ash cloud locations following an explosive volcanic eruption, we construct a number of possible meta-models (a model of the simulator) to act as fast surrogates for the time-expensive model. We will illustrate the new fast surrogates based on both polynomial chaos and multilevel sparse representations that have allowed us to conduct the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in a timely fashion. These surrogates allow orders of magnitude improvement in cost associated with UQ, and are likely to have a major impact in many related domains.This work will be part of an operational and research volcanic forecasting system (see the Webley et al companion presentation) moving towards using ensembles of eruption source parameters and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs), rather than single deterministic forecasts, to drive the ash cloud forecasting systems. This involves using an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) as input to an ash transport and dispersion model, such as PUFF, to produce ash cloud predictions, which will be supported by a Decision Support System. Simulation ensembles with different input volcanic source parameters are intelligently chosen to predict the average and higher-order moments of the output correctly.

  14. Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

    2015-04-01

    Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

  15. Volcanic hazard assessment for disposal of high-level radioactive waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1986-12-31

    Volcanic hazards are evaluated through risk assessment, which is a product of probability and consequences. These studies have been completed for a potential waste disposal site in the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Cenozoic volcanism of the NTS region is divided into three distinct episodes. The youngest episode, 3.7 to 0.3 m.y., comprises scattered, monogenetic Strombolian centers of small volume (<1 km{sup 3}). Rates of volcanic activity for the NTS region are estimated to be about 10{sup -6} event/yr, based on vent counts through time and calculation of rates of magma production. The conditional probability of disruption of the possible waste disposal site at the NTS by basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10{sup -8} to 10{sup -10} yr{sup -1}. Consequences, expressed as radiological release levels, were evaluated by assuming disruption of a repository by basaltic magmas fed along narrow dikes. Limits are placed on the volume of waste material incorporated in magma by analogy to the abundance of lithic fragments in basalt scoria and lava. These consequences would be increased if rising magma encountered water and produced magma/water vapor explosions, which can eject large volumes of country rock. Such a mechanism would be important only if the vapor explosions excavated a crater to repository depths (380 m) - an unlikely event, based on the dimensions of hydrovolcanic craters. The total expected release from disruption of a repository by basaltic magma for a 10{sup 4}-yr period is 1.8 Ci for spent fuel and 1.3 Ci for high-level waste. 34 references.

  16. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

  17. Earthquake and Volcanic Hazard Mitigation and Capacity Building in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, A.

    2012-04-01

    The East African Rift System (EARS) is a classic example of active continental rifting, and a natural laboratory setting to study initiation and early stage evolution of continental rifts. The EARS is at different stages of development that varies from relatively matured rift (16 mm/yr) in the Afar to a weakly extended Okavango Delta in the south with predicted opening velocity < 3 mm/yr. Recent studies in the region helped researchers to highlight the length and timescales of magmatism and faulting, the partitioning of strain between faulting and magmatism, and their implications for the development of along-axis segmentation. Although the human resource and instrument coverage is sparse in the continent, our understanding of rift processes and deep structure has improved in the last decade after the advent of space geodesy and broadband seismology. The recent major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mega dike intrusions that occurred along the EARS attracted several earth scientist teams across the globe. However, most African countries traversed by the rift do not have the full capacity to monitor and mitigate earthquake and volcanic hazards. Few monitoring facilities exist in some countries, and the data acquisition is rarely available in real-time for mitigation purpose. Many sub-Saharan Africa governments are currently focused on achieving the millennium development goals with massive infrastructure development scheme and urbanization while impending natural hazards of such nature are severely overlooked. Collaborations with overseas researchers and other joint efforts by the international community are opportunities to be used by African institutions to best utilize limited resources and to mitigate earthquake and volcano hazards.

  18. Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

    2014-10-01

    New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice

  19. Volcanic hazards: extent and severity of potential tephra hazard interpreted from layer Yn from Mount St. Helens, Washington (Abstract)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullineaux, D.R.

    1977-02-01

    Volcanoes in the conterminous United States erupt infrequently but represent a significant potential hazard. Tephra eruptions can affect broader areas and reach population centers at greater distances from a volcano than any other kind of volcanic event. Lava flows, pyroclastic flows, mudflows, and floods can be more hazardous, but they seldom extend beyond a volcano except along valleys. Severity of risk from tephra depends in part on rate of fall and grain size, but mainly on thickness. Rates of fall from future eruptions in the Cascade Range must be estimated from historic eruptions elsewhere; potential grain sizes and thicknesses can be judged from past tephra eruptions of the Cascade volcanoes themselves. Pumice layer Yn, erupted by Mount St. Helens about BC 2000, exemplifies an extensive and thick tephra resulting from a single eruptive pulse of a Cascade volcano; in thickness and volume it resembles tephra of the type Plinian eruption of Vesuvius in Italy in 79 AD. Layer Yn trends NNE from Mount St. Helens in a long narrow lobe that is much thicker at any given distance than if the layer had formed a wide lobe. On broad ridges where it should be nearly unaffected by thickening or erosion, its present (compacted) thickness is as much as 70 cm at about 50 km from the volcano, 20 cm at 100 km, and 5 cm at about 280 km. Future eruptions like that of layer Yn could produce similar thicknesses in any easterly direction between about NNE and SSE downwind from Mount St. Helens or any other explosive Cascade volcano. Weaker winds toward the west indicate that potential thicknesses are less in westerly directions.

  20. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  1. ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

    2016-08-01

    Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

  2. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  3. Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadbetter, Susan J.; Hort, Matthew C.

    2011-01-01

    Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour 'explosive' eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption. Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.

  4. Developing Sustainable Modeling Software and Necessary Data Repository for Volcanic Hazard Analysis -- Some Lessons Learnt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patra, A. K.; Connor, C.; Webley, P.; Jones, M.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, L.; Gallo, S.; Bursik, M. I.; Valentine, G.; Hughes, C. G.; Aghakhani, H.; Renschler, C. S.; Kosar, T.

    2014-12-01

    We report here on an effort to improve the sustainability, robustness and usability of the core modeling and simulation tools housed in the collaboratory VHub.org and used in the study of complex volcanic behavior. In particular, we focus on tools that support large scale mass flows (TITAN2D), ash deposition/transport and dispersal (Tephra2 and PUFF), and lava flows (Lava2). These tools have become very popular in the community especially due to the availability of an online usage modality. The redevelopment of the tools ot take advantage of new hardware and software advances was a primary thrust for the effort. However, as we start work we have reoriented the effort to also take advantage of significant new opportunities for supporting the complex workflows and use of distributed data resources that will enable effective and efficient hazard analysis.

  5. Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

    CERN Document Server

    Bevilacqua, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

  6. Physical Volcanology and Hazard Analysis of a Young Volcanic Field: Black Rock Desert, Utah, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintz, A. R.

    2009-05-01

    The Black Rock Desert volcanic field, located in west-central Utah, consists of ~30 small-volume monogenetic volcanoes with compositions ranging from small rhyolite domes to large basaltic lava flow fields. The field has exhibited bimodal volcanism for > 9 Ma with the most recent eruption of Ice Springs volcano ˜ 600 yrs ago. Together this eruptive history along with ongoing geothermal activity attests to the usefulness of a hazard assessment. The likelihood of a future eruption in this area has been calculated to be ˜ 8% over the next 1 Ka (95% confidence). However, many aspects of this field such as the explosivity and nature of many of these eruptions are not well known. The physical volcanology of the Tabernacle Hill volcano, suggests a complicated episodic eruption that may have lasted up to 50 yrs. The initial phreatomagmatic eruptions at Tabernacle Hill are reported to have begun ~14 Ka. This initial eruptive phase produced a tuff cone approximately 150 m high and 1.5 km in diameter with distinct bedding layers. Recent mapping and sampling of Tabernacle Hill's lava field, tuff cone and intra-crater deposits were aimed at better constraining the eruptive history, physical volcanology, and explosive energy associated with this eruption. Blocks ejected during the eruption were mapped and analyzed to yield minimum muzzle velocities of 60 - 70 meters per second. These velocities were used in conjunction with an estimated shallow depth of explosion to calculate an energy yield of ˜ 0.5 kT.

  7. Environmental hazards of fluoride in volcanic ash: a case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Shane J.; Neall, V. E.; Lecointre, J. A.; Hedley, M. J.; Loganathan, P.

    2003-03-01

    The vent-hosted hydrothermal system of Ruapehu volcano is normally covered by a c. 10 million m 3 acidic crater lake where volcanic gases accumulate. Through analysis of eruption observations, granulometry, mineralogy and chemistry of volcanic ash from the 1995-1996 Ruapehu eruptions we report on the varying influences on environmental hazards associated with the deposits. All measured parameters are more dependent on the eruptive style than on distance from the vent. Early phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruption phases from crater lakes similar to that on Ruapehu are likely to contain the greatest concentrations of environmentally significant elements, especially sulphur and fluoride. These elements are contained within altered xenolithic material extracted from the hydrothermal system by steam explosions, as well as in residue hydrothermal fluids adsorbed on to particle surfaces. In particular, total F in the ash may be enriched by a factor of 6 relative to original magmatic contents, although immediately soluble F does not show such dramatic increases. Highly soluble NaF and CaSiF 6 phases, demonstrated to be the carriers of 'available' F in purely magmatic eruptive systems, are probably not dominant in the products of phreatomagmatic eruptions through hydrothermal systems. Instead, slowly soluble compounds such as CaF 2, AlF 3 and Ca 5(PO 4) 3F dominate. Fluoride in these phases is released over longer periods, where only one third is leached in a single 24-h water extraction. This implies that estimation of soluble F in such ashes based on a single leach leads to underestimation of the F impact, especially of a potential longer-term environmental hazard. In addition, a large proportion of the total F in the ash is apparently soluble in the digestive system of grazing animals. In the Ruapehu case this led to several thousand sheep deaths from fluorosis.

  8. Time correlation by palaeomagnetism of the 1631 eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Volcanological and volcanic hazard implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carracedo, J. C.; Principe, C.; Rosi, M.; Soler, V.

    1993-11-01

    The 1631 eruption of Mount Vesuvius was the most destructive episode in the recent volcanic history of Vesuvius and the last in which large pyroclastic flows were emitted. The controversy about whether lava flows were also generated in this eruption, as sustained in the mapping by Le Hon (1866) and by the interpretation by some authors (Burri et al., 1975; Rolandi et al., 1991) of eyewitness accounts, is important not only for a better understanding of the eruption but also for the implications in the prediction of volcanic hazards of this volcano, set in an overpopulated area with more than 3 million people potentially at risk. Short-period palaeomagnetic techniques (secular variation curve) have been applied to correlate lava flows interpreted as produced in the event of 1631 with the pyroclastic flow of this same eruption and other lava flows unquestionably emitted prior to this eruptive event. The model that best fits the results obtained suggests that the presumed 1631 lava flows were not the result of a single eruptive event but were, in fact, produced by several different eruptions. These lava flows also have a better palaeomagnetic correlation with the medieval lava flows than with the pyroclastic flow of 1631, whose juvenile pumice clasts have a well-defined single component magnetization that fits in the expected corresponding position of the secular variation curve for that age. The palaeomagnetic characteristics of the 1631 pyroclastic flow are compatible with a "hot" depositional temperature (apparently above the Curie point of magnetite, 585 °C) for the juvenile pumice fragments (magmatic fraction) and a "cold" deposition for the non-magmatic fraction. This suggests the lack of thermal equilibration during transport of the larger clasts, probably due to the short distance travelled by the pyroclastic flows. The main volcanological and volcanic hazard issues of this work are that the 1631 event was entirely explosive and that pyroclastic flow activity

  9. Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

    2008-10-01

    The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

  10. The role of petrology in defining volcanic hazards and designing monitoring systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, I. E.; Turner, M. B.; Price, R. C.; Cronin, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Petrology is the study of magmatic systems; physical volcanology investigates processes of eruption. Physical volcanology provides the pre-eminent underpinning of the practical business of defining hazard scenarios, planning mitigation and designing monitoring strategies. Recent research in a variety of volcanic settings has demonstrated an important link between the petrologic processes that at a fundamental level drive the behavior of volcanoes and the processes that determine the eruptive style of a volcano. Together these define the hazards that arise from volcanic eruptions. Petrological studies of volcanoes are typically based on a study of lava because coherent rock is less vulnerable to weathering and alteration and is more durable in the geological record. Pyroclastic materials are commonly friable and glassy, are more easily eroded, and are more difficult to use in the analytical techniques that have become the staple basis of petrological studies. However, pyroclastic materials represent a complementary but different part of the magmatic story and it is only by integrating both effusive and explosive components of an eruption sequence that a complete picture of the behavior of the system feeding a volcano can be gained. Andesitic strato-cones are made up of a cone-building facies consisting mainly of primary magmatic products and usually dominated by lava flows because pyroclastic material is easily eroded from the slopes of a steep cone. The surrounding ring plain facies includes primary pyroclastic deposits but is typically dominated by redistributed material in the form of debris flow and lahar deposits together with reworked fluvial material. The deposits of each of these two facies are assembled on different time scales and they contain different aspects of the record of the evolution of the magmatic system that gave rise to them. An important practical consequence of this is that different parts of the geochemical record of the system can occur in

  11. Spatial analysis of the Los Tuxtlas Volcanic Field (LTVF) and hazard implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieron, K.; Alvarez, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Tuxtlas volcanic field (LTVF) is located in the southern part of Veracruz state (Mexico) adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico and consists of 4 large volcanic edifices, 3 of them considered inactive and the active San Martin shield volcano. The monogenetic volcanoes belonging to the younger series are represented by hundreds of scoria cones and tens of maars and tuff cones, all of which show ages less than 50,000 years. In comparison to other monogenetic fields, the scoria cone density is quite elevated with 0.2 cones/km2, although the highest scoria cone density can be observed along narrow zones corresponding to the main NW-SE fault system where it reaches 0.7 cones/km2. Scoria cones occur as single edifices and in clusters and show individual edifice volumes of 0.0009 km3 to 0.2 km3, cone heights varying between 21.39 m and 299.21 m. Lava flows associated to scoria cones originate especially along the main NW-SE trending main fault and present run out distances up to 11 kilometers. Only few radiocarbon and Ar-Ar dates exist for the LTVF, mostly because of the high cone density and dense vegetation of the Los Tuxtlas region. Therefore, morphological parameters were used to estimate relative ages. In consequence, the scoria cones can be subdivided into four age groups; the members of each group do not seem to follow any particular trend and are rather scattered throughout the field. The explosive (or wet) equivalents of the mainly basaltic strombolian scoria cones are explosion craters, such as maars and tuff cones, show the highest concentration along the border of the two main geological units to the S of the area with the highest scoria cone concentration. Although the relatively small scale strombolian eruptions associated to scoria cone emplacement do not represent a considerable hazard for the surrounding population, lava flows can easily extent to the main urban zones accommodating about 262,384 inhabitants. Within the area prone to maar formation, the hazard

  12. Hazard assessment at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Joan; Sobradelo, Rosa; Felpeto, Alicia

    2010-05-01

    Mid to long-term hazard assessment is conducted at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex as a first step to evaluate volcanic risk in Tenerife, a densely populated island that is one of the biggest tourist destinations in Europe. Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes started to grow up in the interior of the Las Cañadas caldera, in the central part of Tenerife, about 190 ka ago, after the formation of the youngest sector of the caldera. Since then they have produced more than 150 km3 of rocks which represent a complete basanite to phonolite series. Eruptive activity at Teide-Pico Viejo complex has been traditionally considered as mostly effusive, but new field data has revealed that explosive activity of phonolitic and basaltic magmas, including plinian and subplinian eruptions and the generation of a wide range of PDCs, has also been significant, particularly during the last 30 ka. Most of the Teide products have been emplaced towards the north, inside the Icod and La Orotava valleys, or at the interior of the caldera, while towards the south the caldera wall has stopped the emplacement of such products from going further. The last eruption from the Teide-Pico Viejo central vents, the Lavas Negras eruption, took place about 1000 years ago, but younger eruptive episodes have occurred along the flanks of these stratovolcanoes. Despite the occurrence of numerous eruptions during the last 30 ka and the existence of unequivocal signs of activity in historical times (fumaroles, seismicity) and, even, a clear unrest episode that started in 2004 and is still ongoing, Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes have not been considered as a major threat by some scientists and also by the local authorities who have dedicated minimum attention to them in the recently approved regional emergency plan. If this view prevails it is obvious that risk mitigation in Tenerife will not succeed. In order to contribute to change that view on the danger potential of Teide-Pico Viejo, and to insist on the

  13. The VORISA Project: An Integrated Approach to Assessing Volcanic Hazard and Risk in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, J. M.; Moufti, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has numerous large monogenetic volcanic fields, known locally as 'Harrat'. The largest of these, Harrat Rahat, produced a basaltic fissure eruption in 1256 AD with lava flows travelling within 20 km of the Islamic holy city Al-Madinah. With over 900 visible basaltic and trachytic vents and periodic seismic swarms indicating stalled eruptions, an understanding of the risk of future eruptions in this volcanic field is vital. To systematically address this need we developed the Volcanic Risk in Saudi Arabia (VORISA) Project, a 3-year, multi-disciplinary international research collaboration that integrates geological, geophysical, hazard and risk studies. Detailed mapping and geochemical studies are being combined with new and existing age determinations to determine the style and sequence of events during past basaltic and trachytic eruptions. Data from gravity and magnetotelluric surveys are being integrated with microearthquake data from an 8-station borehole seismic research array to geophysically characterise the structure and nature of the crust, and thus constrain possible physical controls on magma propagation. All available data are being synthesised in hazard models to determine patterns in eruption frequency, magnitude, and style of past activity, as well as the probable location and style of a future event. Combined with geospatial vulnerability data, these hazard models, which include a reconstruction of the 1256 AD eruption, enable us to calculate and communicate volcanic risk to the city of Al-Madinah.

  14. Evaluating effusive volcanic hazard from thermal remote-sensing: insight from analogue experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garel, Fanny; Kaminski, Edouard; Tait, Steve; Limare, Angela

    2014-05-01

    During an effusive volcanic eruption, crisis management is mainly based on the prediction of lava flow advance. The spreading of a lava flow depends mainly on its rheology and on the effusion rate, and can be modeled as a gravity current. A thermal proxy, based on the power radiated by lava flows and measured by remote-sensing, has been quite widely used in the literature to evaluate the effusion rate in near real-time. But firm physical bases are still lacking for such modeling to be used to assess robustly the time variation of the effusion rate. To gain a better understanding of the physical processes underlying lava flow advance and to better assess the validity of thermal proxies, we have performed and analysed analogue experiments using a solidifying wax material. Two aspects of volcanic hazard mitigation are studied: (i) how supply rate relates to surface thermal signal, and (ii) how flow advance relates to supply rate. We find that, for material injected at a constant rate, flow advance is discontinuous and occurs through a succession of stagnation phases and overflows. Stagnation phases are longer for lower supply rates, whereas flows with higher supply rates are less affected by solidification. The total radiated power also grows by stages, but the signal radiated by the hottest and liquid part of the flow reaches a quasi-steady state after some time. This plateau value is shown to scale with the theoretical thermal response of an isoviscous gravity current. The experimental scaling yields satisfying estimates of the effusion rate from the total radiated power measured on a range of basaltic lava flows. However, even though lava lava flow effusion rate can be estimated, our experiments show that prediction of lava advance remains difficult due to chaotic emplacement of solidifying flows.

  15. People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: vulnerability and risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jóhannesdóttir

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Residents in the village of Vík and in the farming community of Álftaver in southern Iceland are living with the threat of volcanic hazards. The highly active subglacial volcano Katla has erupted approximately twice per century since the beginning of settlement around 874 AD. The last major eruption was in 1918 and Katla has recently entered an agitated stage. The purpose of this research was to (1 review residents' responses in relation to vulnerability, (2 examine their risk perception, preparedness and mitigation in relation to an eruption of Katla, and (3 investigate the public and the representative of the local authorities and emergency manager's knowledge of the official evacuation plan. In 2004, we conducted in-depth, face-to-face interviews with local residents using a snowball sample technique. All participants were permanent residents of the two communities, between the ages of 25–95 and most had lived in the area their entire lives. Regardless of the residents' knowledge about past volcanic activity of Katla and the associated future risk, many residents were doubtful about the imminent eruption forecast by scientists and they believed that the volcano is no longer active. In both communities, different social, cultural and economic factors played a central role in how people perceived natural hazards and how they dealt with the fact that their lives and livelihoods could be at risk. The participants had good knowledge about the existing evacuation plan and had participated in evacuation exercises. However, they had not made personal mitigation or preparedness plans in the event of a future eruption. In contrast to the residents of Vík, the inhabitants in Álftaver are concerned about the evacuation process and found it very confusing; they neither found the emergency plan nor the proposed methods for risk communication relevant for their farming community. The perception of the inhabitants, especially in Álftaver, does not

  16. Information systems to manage historical data for natural hazards assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, G.; Guidoboni, E.

    2003-04-01

    Over the last few decades, historical data have become increasingly important in the different sectors dealing with the mitigation of greater natural hazards. By historical data we mean both the instrumental ones, above all those of the last 100 years, and the descriptive ones that generally cover very broad chronological ranges. Suffice it to think, for example, that in countries with ancient cultural traditions like Italy, the catalogue of strong earthquakes has been extended to embrace the last 2,500 years. In this sector, important methodological contributions have come from a multidisciplinary approach to research and the processing of historical information concerning: earthquakes, volcanic eruption, floods, landslides, geochemical data, seismographic data, etc.. Sophisticated and in-depth finalised historical research can make huge quantities of information available, while the development of dedicated information systems can allow for the efficient as well as flexible organisation of both descriptive and parametric data. The honing of the appropriate interfaces also allows the original data to be tapped and even processed in line with the kind of end-user. Thus, by means of an efficient and targeted organisation of the data, the demands of scientific documentation and dissemination can be satisfied. The databases presented here have been developed by SGA over the last twenty years within the scope of the research for the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology and other Italian research bodies. There is a cognitive synergy between the various databases, as a knowledge of the different geophysical phenomena that share the same spatial-temporal frame encourages a combined understanding of the phenomena themselves. The uniformity of approach in the information technology database structure and in the management procedures has been developed in order to enhance the scientific benefits of this synergy.

  17. Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Zaccarelli, Lucia; Di Vito, Mauro Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto; Marzocchi, Warner

    2016-11-01

    Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are gravity-driven hot mixtures of gas and volcanic particles which can propagate at high speed and cover distances up to several tens of kilometers around a given volcano. Therefore, they pose a severe hazard to the surroundings of explosive volcanoes able to produce such phenomena. Despite this threat, probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of PDCs is still in an early stage of development. PVHA is rooted in the quantification of the large uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) which characterize volcanic hazard analyses. This quantification typically requires a big dataset of hazard footprints obtained from numerical simulations of the physical process. For PDCs, numerical models range from very sophisticated (not useful for PVHA because of their very long runtimes) to very simple models (criticized because of their highly simplified physics). We present here a systematic and robust validation testing of a simple PDC model, the energy cone (EC), to unravel whether it can be applied to PVHA of PDCs. Using past PDC deposits at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), we assess the ability of EC to capture the values and variability in some relevant variables for hazard assessment, i.e., area of PDC invasion and maximum runout. In terms of area of invasion, the highest Jaccard coefficients range from 0.33 to 0.86 which indicates an equal or better performance compared to other volcanic mass-flow models. The p values for the observed maximum runouts vary from 0.003 to 0.44. Finally, the frequencies of PDC arrival computed from the EC are similar to those determined from the spatial distribution of past PDC deposits, with high PDC-arrival frequencies over an ˜8-km radius from the crater area at Somma-Vesuvius and around the Astroni crater at Campi Flegrei. The insights derived from our validation tests seem to indicate that the EC is a suitable candidate to compute PVHA of PDCs.

  18. The Geologic Basis for Volcanic Hazard Assessment for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F. Perry

    2002-10-15

    Studies of volcanic risk to the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain have been ongoing for 25 years. These studies are required because three episodes of small-volume, alkalic basaltic volcanism have occurred within 50 km of Yucca Mountain during the Quaternary. Probabilistic hazard estimates for the proposed repository depend on the recurrence rate and spatial distribution of past episodes of volcanism in the region. Several independent research groups have published estimates of the annual probability of a future volcanic disruption of the proposed repository, most of which fall in the range of 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -9} per year; similar conclusions were reached. through an extensive expert elicitation sponsored by the Department of Energy in 1995-1996. The estimated probability values are dominated by a regional recurrence rate of 10{sup -5} to 10{sup -6} volcanic events per year (equating to recurrence intervals of several hundred thousand years). The recurrence rate, as well as the spatial density of volcanoes, is low compared to most other basaltic volcanic fields in the western United States, factors that may be related to both the tectonic history of the region and a lithospheric mantle source that is relatively cold and not prone to melting. The link between volcanism and tectonism in the Yucca Mountain region is not well understood beyond a general association between volcanism and regional extension, although areas of locally high extension within the region may control the location of some volcanoes. Recently, new geologic data or hypotheses have emerged that could potentially increase past estimates of the recurrence rate, and thus the probability of repository disruption. These are (1) hypothesized episodes of anomalously high strain rate, (2) hypothesized presence of a regional mantle hotspot, and (3) new aeromagnetic data suggesting as many as twelve previously unrecognized volcanoes buried in alluvial-filled basins near

  19. International Studies of Hazardous Groundwater/Surface Water Exchange in the Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami Affected Areas of Kamchatka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontar, Y. A.; Gusiakov, V. K.; Izbekov, P. E.; Gordeev, E.; Titov, V. V.; Verstraeten, I. M.; Pinegina, T. K.; Tsadikovsky, E. I.; Heilweil, V. M.; Gingerich, S. B.

    2012-12-01

    During the US-Russia Geohazards Workshop held July 17-19, 2012 in Moscow, Russia the international research effort was asked to identify cooperative actions for disaster risk reduction, focusing on extreme geophysical events. As a part of this recommendation the PIRE project was developed to understand, quantify, forecast and protect the coastal zone aquifers and inland water resources of Kamchatka (Russia) and its ecosystems affected by the November 4, 1952 Kamchatka tsunami (Khalatyrka Beach near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy) and the January 2, 1996 Karymskiy volcano eruption and the lake tsunami. This project brings together teams from U.S. universities and research institutions located in Russia. The research consortium was briefed on recent technical developments and will utilize samples secured via major international volcanic and tsunami programs for the purpose of advancing the study of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the volcanic eruption and tsunami affected coastal areas and inland lakes of Kamchatka. We plan to accomplish this project by developing and applying the next generation of field sampling, remote sensing, laboratory techniques and mathematical tools to study groundwater-surface water interaction processes and SGD. We will develop a field and modeling approach to define SGD environment, key controls, and influence of volcano eruption and tsunami, which will provide a framework for making recommendations to combat contamination. This is valuable for politicians, water resource managers and decision-makers and for the volcano eruption and tsunami affected region water supply and water quality of Kamchatka. Data mining and results of our field work will be compiled for spatial modeling by Geo-Information System (GIS) using 3-D Earth Systems Visualization Lab. The field and model results will be communicated to interested stakeholders via an interactive web site. This will allow computation of SGD spatial patterns. In addition, thanks to the

  20. How to associate with volcanoes. Mitigation of volcanic hazards; Kazan tono tsukiaikata. Kazan saigai wo doyatte herasuka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawabe, Y. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1997-08-01

    This paper describes how to deal with volcanic hazards. Basaltic lave such as in the Kilauea volcano flows quickly, while andesite lava such as in Mt. Asama and Mt. Sakurajima in Japan flows slowly. The pyroclastic flow in the Unzen area was a flow of high-temperature lava, pumice stones and gas driven to a high speed by gravity. The flow is so dangerous as it flows so quickly as allowing no time to escape from. Pyroclastic fall-outs and volcanic gases also give damages of different forms. Mountain collapse and debris avalanche in which a volcanic mountain collapses by eruption and earthquake acting as a trigger can also cause a large disaster. A debris flow may also do the same. Knowing the history of volcanic activities by making geological surveys may help judge what type of eruptive activities is prone to occur. On the other hand, the current conditions must be kept observed by performing seismic observations. Eruption itself, a large-scale lava flow and a pyroclastic flow cannot be prevented by using any hardware technique. Software measures are important to utilize more adequately areas and soil natures with high risks. The National Land Agency has prepared recently a guideline for making hazard prediction maps. It is important that both the administration and general residents utilize this guideline. 11 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  1. Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

  2. Monitoring volcanic activity with satellite remote sensing to reduce aviation hazard and mitigate the risk: application to the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic activity across the North Pacific (NOPAC) occurs on a daily basis and as such monitoring needs to occur on a 24 hour, 365 days a year basis. The risk to the local population and aviation traffic is too high for this not to happen. Given the size and remoteness of the NOPAC region, satellite remote sensing has become an invaluable tool to monitor the ground activity from the regions volcanoes as well as observe, detect and analyze the volcanic ash clouds that transverse across the Pacific. Here, we describe the satellite data collection, data analysis, real-time alert/alarm systems, observational database and nearly 20-year archive of both automated and manual observations of volcanic activity. We provide examples of where satellite remote sensing has detected precursory activity at volcanoes, prior to the volcanic eruption, as well as different types of eruptive behavior that can be inferred from the time series data. Additionally, we illustrate how the remote sensing data be used to detect volcanic ash in the atmosphere, with some of the pro's and con's to the method as applied to the NOPAC, and how the data can be used with other volcano monitoring techniques, such as seismic monitoring and infrasound, to provide a more complete understanding of a volcanoes behavior. We focus on several large volcanic events across the region, since our archive started in 1993, and show how the system can detect both these large scale events as well as the smaller in size but higher in frequency type events. It's all about how to reduce the risk, improve scenario planning and situational awareness and at the same time providing the best and most reliable hazard assessment from any volcanic activity.

  3. Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della Seta, Marta; Marotta, Enrica; Orsi, Giovanni; de Vita, Sandro; Sansivero, Fabio; Fredi, Paola

    2012-01-01

    Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island's coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.

  4. A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

  5. Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.; Alberico, I.

    2010-05-01

    In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources. The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale. A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure, assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation planning.

  6. The structure of volcanic cristobalite in relation to its toxicity; relevance for the variable crystalline silica hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horwell Claire J

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Respirable crystalline silica (RCS continues to pose a risk to human health worldwide. Its variable toxicity depends on inherent characteristics and external factors which influence surface chemistry. Significant population exposure to RCS occurs during volcanic eruptions, where ashfall may cover hundreds of square km and exposure may last years. Occupational exposure also occurs through mining of volcanic deposits. The primary source of RCS from volcanoes is through collapse and fragmentation of lava domes within which cristobalite is mass produced. After 30 years of research, it is still not clear if volcanic ash is a chronic respiratory health hazard. Toxicological assays have shown that cristobalite-rich ash is less toxic than expected. We investigate the reasons for this by determining the physicochemical/structural characteristics which may modify the pathogenicity of volcanic RCS. Four theories are considered: 1 the reactivity of particle surfaces is reduced due to co-substitutions of Al and Na for Si in the cristobalite structure; 2 particles consist of aggregates of cristobalite and other phases, restricting the surface area of cristobalite available for reactions in the lung; 3 the cristobalite surface is occluded by an annealed rim; 4 dissolution of other volcanic particles affects the surfaces of RCS in the lung. Methods The composition of volcanic cristobalite crystals was quantified by electron microprobe and differences in composition assessed by Welch’s two sample t-test. Sections of dome-rock and ash particles were imaged by scanning and transmission electron microscopy, and elemental compositions of rims determined by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Results Volcanic cristobalite contains up to 4 wt. % combined Al2O3 and Na2O. Most cristobalite-bearing ash particles contain adhered materials such as feldspar and glass. No annealed rims were observed. Conclusions The composition of volcanic

  7. Using a ballistic-caprock model for developing a volcanic projectiles hazard map at Santorini caldera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinou, Konstantinos

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic Ballistic Projectiles (VBPs) are rock/magma fragments of variable size that are ejected from active vents during explosive eruptions. VBPs follow almost parabolic trajectories that are influenced by gravity and drag forces before they reach their impact point on the Earth's surface. Owing to their high temperature and kinetic energies, VBPs can potentially cause human casualties, severe damage to buildings as well as trigger fires. Since the Minoan eruption the Santorini caldera has produced several smaller (VEI = 2-3) vulcanian eruptions, the last of which occurred in 1950, while in 2011 it also experienced significant deformation/seismicity even though no eruption eventually occurred. In this work, an eruptive model appropriate for vulcanian eruptions is used to estimate initial conditions (ejection height, velocity) for VBPs assuming a broad range of gas concentration/overpressure in the vent. These initial conditions are then inserted into a ballistic model for the purpose of calculating the maximum range of VBPs for different VBP sizes (0.35-3 m), varying drag coefficient as a function of VBP speed and varying air density as a function of altitude. In agreement with previous studies a zone of reduced drag is also included in the ballistic calculations that is determined based on the size of vents that were active in the Kameni islands during previous eruptions (< 1 km). Results show that the horizontal range of VBPs varies between 0.9-3 km and greatly depends on gas concentration, the extent of the reduced drag zone and the size of VBP. Hazard maps are then constructed by taking into account the maximum horizontal range values as well as potential locations of eruptive vents along a NE-SW direction around the Kameni islands (the so-called "Kameni line").

  8. ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

  9. Volcanic Stratigraphy and Potential Hazards of the Chihsingshan Volcano Subgroup in the Tatun Volcano Group, Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wei Tsai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chihsingshan Volcano Subgroup (CVSG is one of the most important landforms located within the Tatun Volcano Group in northern Taiwan. Based on a Digital Terrain Model, contour maps and field investigations, the CVSG can be divided into four types of volcanic landforms: (1 a strato- or composite volcano, Chihsingshan; (2 domes, the Shamaoshan and a hidden unit; (3 lava cones, the Baiyunshan and the Hsiaotsaoshan; and (4 a scoria cone, the Chikushan. Meanwhile, many small craters are distributed linearly along two northeast trending normal-fault systems. The occurrences are predominantly lava flows with subsidiary fall deposits, pyroclastic flows, and lahars in which at least twenty layers of lava flow in the CVSG can be recognized. Among them, 16 layers in the Chihsingshan volcano, named as C1 - C16, two in the Baiyunshan, B1 - B2, and two in the Hsiaotsaoshan, H1 - H2. Our study suggests that the potential volcanic hazards include lava and pyroclastic flows and simultaneous or subsequent lahars, if the Chihsingshan erupts in a similar manner as in the past. A volcanic hazard zonation map can be constructed for the purpose of mitigation assuming the future eruptive center and eruptive volume.

  10. Health information technologies : From hazardous to the dark side

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saunders, C.; Rutkowski, Anne; Pluyter, J.R.; Spanjers, R.

    This article explores the effects of health information technologies (HIT) in operating rooms (ORs). When functioning well, HIT are a boon to mankind. However, HIT in the OR also create hazards for patients for a number of interrelated reasons. We introduce 5 interrelated components of hazard

  11. Volcanic eruptions, hazardous ash clouds and visualization tools for accessing real-time infrared remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webley, P.; Dehn, J.; Dean, K. G.; Macfarlane, S.

    2010-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions are a global hazard, affecting local infrastructure, impacting airports and hindering the aviation community, as seen in Europe during Spring 2010 from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in Iceland. Here, we show how remote sensing data is used through web-based interfaces for monitoring volcanic activity, both ground based thermal signals and airborne ash clouds. These ‘web tools’, http://avo.images.alaska.edu/, provide timely availability of polar orbiting and geostationary data from US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration and Japanese Meteorological Agency satellites for the North Pacific (NOPAC) region. This data is used operationally by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) for monitoring volcanic activity, especially at remote volcanoes and generates ‘alarms’ of any detected volcanic activity and ash clouds. The webtools allow the remote sensing team of AVO to easily perform their twice daily monitoring shifts. The web tools also assist the National Weather Service, Alaska and Kamchatkan Volcanic Emergency Response Team, Russia in their operational duties. Users are able to detect ash clouds, measure the distance from the source, area and signal strength. Within the web tools, there are 40 x 40 km datasets centered on each volcano and a searchable database of all acquired data from 1993 until present with the ability to produce time series data per volcano. Additionally, a data center illustrates the acquired data across the NOPAC within the last 48 hours, http://avo.images.alaska.edu/tools/datacenter/. We will illustrate new visualization tools allowing users to display the satellite imagery within Google Earth/Maps, and ArcGIS Explorer both as static maps and time-animated imagery. We will show these tools in real-time as well as examples of past large volcanic eruptions. In the future, we will develop the tools to produce real-time ash retrievals, run volcanic ash dispersion

  12. Using Websites to Convey Scientific Uncertainties for Volcanic Processes and Potential Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venezky, D. Y.; Lowenstern, J. B.; Hill, D. P.

    2005-12-01

    The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) and Long Valley Observatory (LVO) websites have greatly increased the public's awareness and access to information about scientific uncertainties for volcanic processes by communicating at multiple levels of understanding and varied levels of detail. Our websites serve a broad audience ranging from visitors unaware of the calderas, to lay volcano enthusiasts, to scientists, federal agencies, and emergency managers. Both Yellowstone and Long Valley are highly visited tourist attractions with histories of caldera-forming eruptions large enough to alter global climate temporarily. Although it is much more likely that future activity would be on a small scale at either volcano, we are constantly posed questions about low-probability, high-impact events such as the caldera-forming eruption depicted in the recent BBC/Discovery movie, "Supervolcano". YVO and LVO website objectives include: providing monitoring data, explaining the likelihood of future events, summarizing research results, helping media provide reliable information, and expanding on information presented by the media. Providing detailed current information is a crucial website component as the public often searches online to augment information gained from often cryptic pronouncements by the media. In May 2005, for example, YVO saw an order of magnitude increase in page requests on the day MSNBC ran the misleading headline, "Yellowstone eruption threat high." The headline referred not to current events but a general rating of Yellowstone as one of 37 "high threat" volcanoes in the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System report. As websites become a more dominant source of information, we continuously revise our communication plans to make the most of this evolving medium. Because the internet gives equal access to all information providers, we find ourselves competing with various "doomsday" websites that sensationalize and distort the current understanding of

  13. A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcorn, Rebecca; Panter, Kurt S.; Gorsevski, Pece V.

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic hazard tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows and to assess the social and economic vulnerabilities of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fallout deposits originating from the El Cajete crater within the Valles Caldera, Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by Wolff et al. (2011). The change in the axial orientation of fallout deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at a second vent location determined from probability distributions of structural features. The resulting hazard simulation maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fallout, PDCs and lava flows, indicating areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk.

  14. Internal structure and volcanic hazard potential of Mt Tongariro, New Zealand, from 3D gravity and magnetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Craig A.; Williams-Jones, Glyn

    2016-06-01

    A new 3D geophysical model of the Mt Tongariro Volcanic Massif (TgVM), New Zealand, provides a high resolution view of the volcano's internal structure and hydrothermal system, from which we derive implications for volcanic hazards. Geologically constrained 3D inversions of potential field data provides a greater level of insight into the volcanic structure than is possible from unconstrained models. A complex region of gravity highs and lows (± 6 mGal) is set within a broader, ~ 20 mGal gravity low. A magnetic high (1300 nT) is associated with Mt Ngauruhoe, while a substantial, thick, demagnetised area occurs to the north, coincident with a gravity low and interpreted as representing the hydrothermal system. The hydrothermal system is constrained to the west by major faults, interpreted as an impermeable barrier to fluid migration and extends to basement depth. These faults are considered low probability areas for future eruption sites, as there is little to indicate they have acted as magmatic pathways. Where the hydrothermal system coincides with steep topographic slopes, an increased likelihood of landslides is present and the newly delineated hydrothermal system maps the area most likely to have phreatic eruptions. Such eruptions, while small on a global scale, are important hazards at the TgVM as it is a popular hiking area with hundreds of visitors per day in close proximity to eruption sites. The model shows that the volume of volcanic material erupted over the lifespan of the TgVM is five to six times greater than previous estimates, suggesting a higher rate of magma supply, in line with global rates of andesite production. We suggest that our model of physical property distribution can be used to provide constraints for other models of dynamic geophysical processes occurring at the TgVM.

  15. Eruptive dynamics and hazards associated with obsidian bearing ignimbrites of the Geghama Volcanic Highland, Central Armenia: a textural insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Zoe; Manning, Christina J.

    2017-04-01

    The Geghama Volcanic highland in central Armenia is an ideal setting to study the young ( 750-25 ka [1]) volcanism that characterises the Lesser Caucasus region. The volcanism in the area is bimodal in composition: the eastern highlands are dominated by numerous monogenetic scoria cones, whilst the west shows more evolved volcanism centered on two obsidian bearing, polygenetic domes (Hatis and Gutanasar) [2]. Activity at Hatis and Gutanasar is thought to have spanned 550ka-200ka [3] and produced a range of products including obsidian flows, ignimbrites and basaltic scoria cones, consistent with long lived and complex magma storage systems. During a similar time period there is evidence for the presence of hominin groups in the surrounding region [3] and it is likely that at least some of the volcanic activity at Hatis and Gutanasar impacted on their distribution [4]. A better understanding of the eruptive behaviour of these volcanoes during this period could therefore shed light on the effect of volcanic activity on the dispersal of man through this period. Whilst large regional studies have striven to better understand the timing and source of volcanism in Armenia, there have been few detailed studies on single volcanoes. Obsidian is ubiquitous within the volcanic material of both Gutanasar and Hatis as lava flows, dome deposits and within ignimbrites. This study aims to better understand the eruptive history of Gutanasar, with specific focus upon the determination of the petrogenetic history of obsidian lenses observed within the ignimbrite deposits. Identification of these obsidians as the result of welding or in-situ melting will help constrain eruptive volumes and flow thickness, important for the reconstruction of palaeo-volcanic hazards. In order to interpret how this obsidian was deposited, macro textural analysis is combined with micro textural measurements of microlite crystals. Quantitative measurements of microlites in obsidian can provide significant

  16. Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, John; Barton, Nick; Blockley, Simon; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Cullen, Victoria L; Davies, William; Gamble, Clive; Grant, Katharine; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert; Lane, Christine S; Lee, Sharen; Lewis, Mark; MacLeod, Alison; Menzies, Martin; Müller, Wolfgang; Pollard, Mark; Price, Catherine; Roberts, Andrew P; Rohling, Eelco J; Satow, Chris; Smith, Victoria C; Stringer, Chris B; Tomlinson, Emma L; White, Dustin; Albert, Paul; Arienzo, Ilenia; Barker, Graeme; Boric, Dusan; Carandente, Antonio; Civetta, Lucia; Ferrier, Catherine; Guadelli, Jean-Luc; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Koumouzelis, Margarita; Müller, Ulrich C; Orsi, Giovanni; Pross, Jörg; Rosi, Mauro; Shalamanov-Korobar, Ljiljiana; Sirakov, Nikolay; Tzedakis, Polychronis C

    2012-08-21

    Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results confirm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters.

  17. Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, John; Barton, Nick; Blockley, Simon; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Cullen, Victoria L.; Davies, William; Gamble, Clive; Grant, Katharine; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert; Lane, Christine S.; Lee, Sharen; Lewis, Mark; MacLeod, Alison; Menzies, Martin; Müller, Wolfgang; Pollard, Mark; Price, Catherine; Roberts, Andrew P.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Satow, Chris; Smith, Victoria C.; Stringer, Chris B.; Tomlinson, Emma L.; White, Dustin; Albert, Paul; Arienzo, Ilenia; Barker, Graeme; Borić, Dušan; Carandente, Antonio; Civetta, Lucia; Ferrier, Catherine; Guadelli, Jean-Luc; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Koumouzelis, Margarita; Müller, Ulrich C.; Orsi, Giovanni; Pross, Jörg; Rosi, Mauro; Shalamanov-Korobar, Ljiljiana; Sirakov, Nikolay; Tzedakis, Polychronis C.

    2012-01-01

    Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results confirm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters. PMID:22826222

  18. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before and during eruptions: BET_VHst for Mt. Etna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Scollo, Simona; Costa, Antonio; Brancato, Alfonso; Prestifilippo, Michele

    2015-04-01

    Tephra dispersal, even in small amounts, may heavily affect public health and critical infrastructures, such as airports, train and road networks, and electric power supply systems. Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at managing and mitigating the risk posed by activity during volcanic crises and during eruptions. Short-term PVHA (over time intervals in the order of hours to few days) must account for rapidly changing information coming from the monitoring system, as well as, updated wind forecast, and they must be accomplished in near-real-time. In addition, while during unrest the primary goal is to forecast potential eruptions, during eruptions it is also fundamental to correctly account for the real-time status of the eruption and of tephra dispersal, as well as its potential evolution in the short-term. Here, we present a preliminary application of BET_VHst model (Selva et al. 2014) for Mt. Etna. The model has its roots into present state deterministic procedure, and it deals with the large uncertainty that such procedures typically ignore, like uncertainty on the potential position of the vent and eruptive size, on the possible evolution of volcanological input during ongoing eruptions, as well as, on wind field. Uncertainty is treated by making use of Bayesian inference, alternative modeling procedures for tephra dispersal, and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  19. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  20. Using high-precision 40Ar/39Ar geochronology to understand volcanic hazards within the Rio Grande rift and along the Jemez lineament, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerer, M. J.; McIntosh, W. C.; Heizler, M. T.; Lafferty, J.

    2014-12-01

    High-precision Ar/Ar ages were generated for late Quaternary volcanic fields in the Rio Grande rift and along the Jemez Lineament, New Mexico, to assess the time-space patterns of volcanism and begin quantifying volcanic hazards for the region. The published chronology of most late Quaternary volcanic centers in the region is not sufficiently precise, accurate, or complete for a comprehensive volcanic hazard assessment. Ar/Ar ages generated as part of this study were determined using the high-sensitivity, multi-collector ARGUS VI mass spectrometer, which provides about an order of magnitude more precise isotopic measurements compared to older generation, single-detector mass spectrometers. Ar/Ar ages suggest an apparent increase in eruption frequency during the late Quaternary within the Raton-Clayton volcanic field, northeastern NM. Only four volcanoes erupted between 426±8 and 97±3 ka. Contrastingly, four volcanoes erupted between 55±2 and 32±5 ka. This last eruptive phase displays a west to east migration of volcanism, has repose periods of 0 to 17 ka, and an average recurrence rate of 1 eruption per 5750 ka. The Zuni-Bandera volcanic field, west-central NM, is composed of the ~100 late Quaternary basaltic vents. Preliminary results suggest that most of the Chain of Craters, the largest and oldest part of the Zuni-Bandera field, erupted between ~100 and 250 ka. Volcanism then migrated to the east, where published ages indicate at least seven eruptions between 50 and 3 ka. Both volcanic fields display a west to east migration of volcanism during the last ~500 ka, although the pattern is more pronounced in the Zuni-Bandera field. A reassessment of low-precision published ages for other late Quaternary volcanic fields in region indicates that most fields display a similar west to east migration of volcanism during the last ~500 ka. One possible mechanism to explain the observed patterns of volcanism is the westward migration of the North American plate relative

  1. Volcanic debris flows in developing countries - The extreme need for public education and awareness of debris-flow hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; ,

    2003-01-01

    In many developing countries, volcanic debris flows pose a significant societal risk owing to the distribution of dense populations that commonly live on or near a volcano. At many volcanoes, modest volume (up to 500,000 m 3) debris flows are relatively common (multiple times per century) and typically flow at least 5 km along established drainages. Owing to typical debris-flow velocities there is little time for authorities to provide effective warning of the occurrence of a debris flow to populations within 10 km of a source area. Therefore, people living, working, or recreating along channels that drain volcanoes must learn to recognize potentially hazardous conditions, be aware of the extent of debris-flow hazard zones, and be prepared to evacuate to safer ground when hazardous conditions develop rather than await official warnings or intervention. Debris-flow-modeling and hazard-assessment studies must be augmented with public education programs that emphasize recognizing conditions favorable for triggering landslides and debris flows if effective hazard mitigation is to succeed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

  2. Linking emerging hazardous waste technologies with the electronic information era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, B.E.; Suk, W.A. [National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Blackard, B. [Technology Planning and Management Corp., Durham, NC (United States)

    1996-12-31

    In looking to the future and the development of new approaches or strategies for managing hazardous waste, it is important to understand and appreciate the factors that have contributed to current successful approaches. In the United States, several events in the last two decades have had a significant impact in advancing remediation of hazardous waste, including environmental legislation, legislative reforms on licensing federally funded research, and electronic transfer of information. Similar activities also have occurred on a global level. While each of these areas is significant, the electronic exchange of information has no national boundaries and has become an active part of major hazardous waste research and management programs. It is important to realize that any group or society that is developing a comprehensive program in hazardous waste management should be able to take advantage of this advanced approach in the dissemination of information. 6 refs., 1 tab.

  3. Health and safety information program for hazardous materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, M.P.; Fallon, N.J.; Kuehner, A.V.

    1979-01-01

    The system is used as a management tool in several safety and health programs. It is used to: trace the use of hazardous materials and to determine monitoring needs; inform the occupational physician of the potential health problems associated with materials ordered by a given individual; inform the fire and rescue group of hazardous materials in a given building; provide waste disposal recommendations to the hazardous waste management group; assist the hazardous materials shipping coordinator in identifying materials which are regulated by the Department of Transportation; and guide management decisions in the area of recognizing and rectifying unsafe conditions. The information system has been expanded from a manual effort to provide a brief description of health hazards of chemicals used at the lab to a computerized health and safety information system which serves the needs of all personnel who may encounter the material in the course of their work. The system has been designed to provide information needed to control the potential problems associated with a hazardous material up to the time that it is consumed in a given operation or is sent to the waste disposal facility.

  4. Stratigraphy, geomorphology, geochemistry and hazard implications of the Nejapa Volcanic Field, western Managua, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avellán, Denis Ramón; Macías, José Luis; Pardo, Natalia; Scolamacchia, Teresa; Rodriguez, Dionisio

    2012-02-01

    The Nejapa Volcanic Field (NVF) is located on the western outskirts of Managua, Nicaragua. It consists of at least 30 volcanic structures emplaced along the N-S Nejapa fault, which represents the western active edge of the Managua Graben. The study area covers the central and southern parts of the volcanic field. We document the basic geomorphology, stratigraphy, chemistry and evolution of 17 monogenetic volcanic structures: Ticomo (A, B, C, D and E); Altos de Ticomo; Nejapa; San Patricio; Nejapa-Norte; Motastepe; El Hormigón; La Embajada; Asososca; Satélite; Refinería; and Cuesta El Plomo (A and B). Stratigraphy aided by radiocarbon dating suggests that 23 eruptions have occurred in the area during the past ~ 34,000 years. Fifteen of these eruptions originated in the volcanic field between ~ 28,500 and 2,130 yr BP with recurrence intervals varying from 400 to 7,000 yr. Most of these eruptions were phreatomagmatic with minor strombolian and fissural lava flow events. A future eruption along the fault might be of a phreatomagmatic type posing a serious threat to the more than 500,000 inhabitants in western Managua.

  5. Volcanic hazard in Mexico: a comprehensive on-line database for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manea, Marina; Constantin Manea, Vlad; Capra, Lucia; Bonasia, Rosanna

    2013-04-01

    Researchers are currently working on several key aspects of the Mexican volcanoes, such as remote sensing, field data of old and recent volcaniclastic deposits, structural framework, monitoring (rainfall data and visual observation of lahars), and laboratory experiment (analogue models and numerical simulations - fall3D, titan2D). Each investigation is focused on specific processes, but it is fundamental to visualize the global status of the volcano in order to understand its behavior and to mitigate future hazards. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline represents a novel initiative aimed to collect, on a systematic basis, the complete set of data obtained so far on the volcanoes, and to continuously update the database with new data. All the information is compiled from published works and updated frequently. Maps, such as the geological map of the Mexican volcanos and the associated hazard zonation, as well as point data, such as stratigraphic sections, sedimentology and diagrams of rainfall intensities, are presented in Google Earth format in order to be easily accessed by the scientific community and the general public. An important section of this online database is the presentation of numerical simulations results for ash dispersion associated with the principal Mexican active volcanoes. Daily prediction of ash flow dispersion (based on real-time data from CENAPRED and the Mexican Meteorological Service), as well as large-scale high-resolution subduction simulations performed on HORUS (the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory's supercomputer) represent a central part of the Mexican Volcanos @nline database. The Mexican Volcanoes @nline database is maintained by the Computational Geodynamics Laboratory and it is based entirely on Open Source software. The website can be visited at: http://www.geociencias.unam.mx/mexican_volcanoes.

  6. Late-Pleistocene to precolumbian behind-the-arc mafic volcanism in the eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt; implications for future hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, Lee; Carrasco-Núñez, Gerardo

    2002-06-01

    initially produced the high effusion rate, short-duration Toxtlacuaya alkaline aa lava flow from the southeastern crater. This 12-km-long hawaiite (average 50.5% SiO 2) flow was followed by extrusion of the calc-alkaline Rı´o Naolinco lava flow from the northwestern crater. This large-volume (˜1.3 km 3) tube-fed basaltic pahoehoe flow (average SiO 2 49%) traveled 50 km. Inferred effusion rates suggest emplacement over a decade-long period. Flows of all three age groups are transected by Highway 140 and the railway that form major transportation arteries between Jalapa and Puebla. This area has not previously been considered to be at volcanic risk, but volcanism here has continued into precolumbian time. Future eruptions of similar magnitude and location to those documented here could pose significant hazards to transportation corridors and to densely populated areas in and to the north of Jalapa. Slight variations in vent locations could produce future flows down one or more of more than a half dozen drainages with widely varying population densities.

  7. Neotectonics of Graciosa island (Azores: a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of a volcanic area in a complex geodynamic setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Hipólito

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Graciosa is a mid-Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic island that lies in a complex plate boundary between the North American, Eurasian, and Nubian plates. Large fault scarps displace the oldest (Middle Pleistocene volcanic units, but in the younger areas recent volcanism (Holocene to Upper Pleistocene conceals the surface expression of faulting, limiting neotectonic observations. The large displacement accumulated by the older volcanic units when compared with the younger formations suggests a variability of deformation rates and the possibility of alternating periods of higher and lower tectonic deformation rates; this would increase the recurrence interval of surface rupturing earthquakes. Nevertheless, in historical times a few destructive earthquakes affected the island attesting for its seismic hazard. Regarding the structural data, two main fault systems, incompatible with a single stress field, were identified at Graciosa Island. Thus, it is proposed that the region is affected by two alternating stress fields. The stress field #1 corresponds to the regional stress regime proposed by several authors for the interplate shear zone that constitutes the Azorean segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. It is suggested that the stress field #2 will act when the area under the influence of the regional stress field #1 narrows as a result of variations in the differential spreading rates north and south of Azores. The islands closer to the edge of the sheared region will temporarily come under the influence of a different (external stress field (stress field #2. Such data support the concept that, in the Azores, the Eurasia-Nubia boundary corresponds to a complex and wide deformation zone, variable in time.

  8. Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

    2017-04-01

    This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

  9. Hazard assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal from a violent Strombolian eruption at Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Naples, Italy: implications on civil aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulpizio, Roberto; Folch, Arnau; Costa, Antonio; Scaini, Chiara; Dellino, Pierfrancesco

    2012-11-01

    Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38 %) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7 days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2 mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment

  10. Landslide hazard and risk assessment for Ambon city using landslide inventory and geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souisa, Matheus; Hendrajaya, Lilik; Handayani, Gunawan

    2016-08-01

    Ambon Island is a volcanic islands arc and included in the territory of the archipelago of small islands are associated with subduction zones that have a degree of high vulnerability to natural disasters, such as erosion and landslides on the slopes of certain conditions. Landslides that occur various in the city of Ambon, usually occurs during the rainy season so that the impacts that occur not only occurs on site but also off site with amount of large sedimentation. This paper presents the application of digital image analysis techniques and tools Geographic Information Systems to describe the degree of landslide hazard and risk areas in locations Ambon City, Moluccas. The cause of the landslide is analyzed through various thematic layers attribute data for the study area. Landslide hazard zonation assessment is done by using historical data, while the landslide risk analysis is done by using the results of landslide hazard assessment and socioeconomic factors by using geospatial models. The risk assessment of landslides can be used to estimate the risk to the population, property and infrastructure. The study results in the form of a map of landslide hazard and the risk of landslides that act to support urban spatial planning based on disaster mitigation.

  11. Understanding volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Somma, Renato; Moretti, Roberto

    2017-05-01

    Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative modeling and scientific drilling are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei, and the results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the roles of magma intrusion and geothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

  12. Tube coalescence in the Jingfudong lava tube and implications for lava flow hazard of Tengchong volcanism

    OpenAIRE

    Zhengquan Chen; Yongshun Liu; Haiquan Wei; Jiandong Xu; Wenfeng Guo

    2016-01-01

    Tube-fed structure occurs as a general phenomenon in Tengchong basic lavas, such as lava tubes, lava plugs and tube-related collapse depressions. We deduced the development of Laoguipo lava flows, which is the longest lava tube (Jingfudong lava tube) evolved in Tengchong volcanic area. Following the detailed documentation of the tube morphology of the Jingfudong lava tube, we propose that the Jingfudong lava tube was formed through vertical coalescence of at least three tubes. The coalescence...

  13. Geoethics implications in volcanic hazards in Argentina: 24 years of uninterrupted ash-fall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Elizabeth I.; Violante, Roberto A.; Uber, Silvia M.; Vázquez Herrera, Marcelo

    2016-04-01

    The impact of falling ash reaches all human activities, has effects on human and animal health and is subject to climate and ecosystem of the affected regions. From 1991 until 2015 (24 years), more than 5 eruptions with VEI ≥ 4 in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes occurred; pyroclastic, dust and volcanic ash were deposited (mostly) in Argentina. A recurring situation during eruptions of Hudson (1991), Chaiten (2008), Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) and Calbuco (2015) volcanoes was the accumulation, storage and dump of volcanic ash in depressed areas, beaches, lakes, ditches, storm drains, areas of landfills and transfer stations. The issues that this practice has taken are varied: pollution of aquifers, changes in geomorphology and water courses, usually in "inconspicuous" zones, often in places where there are precarious population or high poverty settlements. The consequences are not immediate but the effects in the mid and long term bring serious drawbacks. On the contrary, a good example of intelligent management of the volcanic impact occurred many years before, during the eruption of Descabezado Grande (Quizapu) volcano in 1932. In that case, and as an example, the city of Trenque Lauquen, located nearly 770 km east of the volcano, decided a communitarian task of collection and burial of the ashfall in small areas, this was a very successful performance. The Quizapu ash plumes transported by the Westerlies (winds) covered with a blanket of volcanic ash the city, ashfall also reached the capital cities of Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Uruguay (Montevideo). Also, the bagging process of volcanic ash with reinforced plastics was an example of Good Practice in the management of the emergency. This allowed the entire affected community to take advantage of this "mineral resource" and contributes to achieving collective and participatory work leading to commercialization and sustainability of these products availed as fertilizers, granular base for ceramics and

  14. Volcanology and volcanic activity with a primary focus on potential hazard impacts for the Hawaii geothermal project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, R.B. [Federal Center, Denver, CO (United States); Delaney, P.T. [2255 North Gemini Drive, Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Kauahikaua, J.P. [Geological Survey, Hawaii National Park, HI (United States). Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

    1993-10-01

    This annotated bibliography reviews published references about potential volcanic hazards on the Island of Hawaii that are pertinent to drilling and operating geothermal wells. The first two sections of this annotated bibliography list the most important publications that describe eruptions of Kilauea volcano, with special emphasis on activity in and near the designated geothermal subzones. References about historic eruptions from Mauna Loa`s northeast rift zone, as well as the most recent activity on the southern flank of dormant Mauna Kea, adjacent to the Humu`ula Saddle are described. The last section of this annotated bibliography lists the most important publications that describe and analyze deformations of the surface of Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes.

  15. Possible asphyxiation from carbon dioxide of a cross-country skier in eastern California: a deadly volcanic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, P M

    2000-01-01

    This report describes an incident in which exceedingly high levels of carbon dioxide may have contributed to the death of a skier in eastern California. A cross-country skier was found dead inside a large, mostly covered snow cave, 1 day after he was reported missing. The autopsy report suggests that the skier died of acute pulmonary edema consistent with asphyxiation; carbon dioxide measurements inside the hole in which he was found reached 70%. This area is known for having a high carbon dioxide flux attributed to degassing of a large body of magma (molten rock) 10 to 20 km beneath the ski area. The literature describes many incidents of fatal carbon dioxide exposures associated with volcanic systems in other parts of the world. We believe this case represents the first reported death associated with volcanically produced carbon dioxide in the United States. Disaster and wilderness medicine specialists should be aware of and plan for this potential health hazard associated with active volcanoes.

  16. A new view into the Cascadia subduction zone and volcanic arc: Implications for earthquake hazards along the Washington margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.; Trehu, A.M.; Luetgert, J.H.; Miller, K.; Kilbride, F.; Wells, R.E.; Fisher, M.A.; Flueh, E.; ten Brink, U.S.; Christensen, N.I.

    1998-01-01

    In light of suggestions that the Cascadia subduction margin may pose a significant seismic hazard for the highly populated Pacific Northwest region of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Research Center for Marine Geosciences (GEOMAR), and university collaborators collected and interpreted a 530-km-long wide-angle onshore-offshore seismic transect across the subduction zone and volcanic arc to study the major structures that contribute to seismogenic deformation. We observed (1) an increase in the dip of the Juan de Fuca slab from 2??-7?? to 12?? where it encounters a 20-km-thick block of the Siletz terrane or other accreted oceanic crust, (2) a distinct transition from Siletz crust into Cascade arc crust that coincides with the Mount St. Helens seismic zone, supporting the idea that the mafic Siletz block focuses seismic deformation at its edges, and (3) a crustal root (35-45 km deep) beneath the Cascade Range, with thinner crust (30-35 km) east of the volcanic arc beneath the Columbia Plateau flood basalt province. From the measured crustal structure and subduction geometry, we identify two zones that may concentrate future seismic activity: (1) a broad (because of the shallow dip), possibly locked part of the interplate contact that extends from ???25 km depth beneath the coastline to perhaps as far west as the deformation front ???120 km offshore and (2) a crustal zone at the eastern boundary between the Siletz terrane and the Cascade Range.

  17. Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)

    2014-08-15

    Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

  18. Combining long- and short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2012-04-01

    By using BET_VH, we propose a quantitative probabilistic hazard assessment for base surge impact in Auckland, New Zealand. Base surges resulting from phreatomagmatic eruptions are among the most dangerous phenomena likely to be associated with the initial phase of a future eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. The assessment is done both in the long-term and in a specific short-term case study, i.e. the simulated pre-eruptive unrest episode during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national civil defence exercise. The most important factors to account for are the uncertainties in the vent location (expected for a volcanic field) and in the run-out distance of base surges. Here, we propose a statistical model of base surge run-out distance based on deposits from past eruptions in Auckland and in analogous volcanoes. We then combine our hazard assessment with an analysis of the costs and benefits of evacuating people (on a 1 × 1-km cell grid). In addition to stressing the practical importance of a cost-benefit analysis in creating a bridge between volcanologists and decision makers, our study highlights some important points. First, in the Exercise Ruaumoko application, the evacuation call seems to be required as soon as the unrest phase is clear; additionally, the evacuation area is much larger than what is recommended in the current contingency plan. Secondly, the evacuation area changes in size with time, due to a reduction in the uncertainty in the vent location and increase in the probability of eruption. It is the tradeoff between these two factors that dictates which cells must be evacuated, and when, thus determining the ultimate size and shape of the area to be evacuated.

  19. Cleanup delays at hazardous waste sites: an incomplete information game

    OpenAIRE

    Rausser, Gordon C.; Simon, Leo K.; Zhao, Jinhua

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies the incentives facing Potentially Responsible Parties at a hazardous waste site to promote excessive investigation of the site and thus postpone the beginning of the remediation phase of the cleanup. We model the problem as an incomplete information, simultaneous-move game between PRPs. We assume that PRP's liability shares are predetermined. Each PRP's type is its private information about the precision of its own records relating to the site. A strategy for a PRP is a fun...

  20. Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul D.; Stewart, Iain

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents the findings from a study aimed at understanding whether video games (or serious games) can be effective in enhancing volcanic hazard education and communication. Using the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, we have developed a video game - St. Vincent's Volcano - for use in existing volcano education and outreach sessions. Its twin aims are to improve residents' knowledge of potential future eruptive hazards (ash fall, pyroclastic flows and lahars) and to integrate traditional methods of education in a more interactive manner. Here, we discuss the process of game development including concept design through to the final implementation on St. Vincent. Preliminary results obtained from the final implementation (through pre- and post-test knowledge quizzes) for both student and adult participants provide indications that a video game of this style may be effective in improving a learner's knowledge. Both groups of participants demonstrated a post-test increase in their knowledge quiz score of 9.3 % for adults and 8.3 % for students and, when plotted as learning gains (Hake, 1998), show similar overall improvements (0.11 for adults and 0.09 for students). These preliminary findings may provide a sound foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. This paper also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study.

  1. Geographical information system approaches for hazard mapping of dilute lahars on Montserrat, West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnell, A. R.; Barclay, J.; Herd, R. A.; Phillips, J. C.; Lovett, A. A.; Cole, P.

    2012-08-01

    Many research tools for lahar hazard assessment have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application to an active volcanic system where field measurements are challenging to obtain. Two simple routing models, with minimal data demands and implemented in a geographical information system (GIS), were applied to dilute lahars originating from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Single-direction flow routing by path of steepest descent, commonly used for simulating normal stream-flow, was tested against LAHARZ, an established lahar model calibrated for debris flows, for ability to replicate the main flow routes. Comparing the ways in which these models capture observed changes, and how the different modelled paths deviate can also provide an indication of where dilute lahars, do not follow behaviour expected from single-phase flow models. Data were collected over two field seasons and provide (1) an overview of gross morphological change after one rainy season, (2) details of dominant channels at the time of measurement, and (3) order of magnitude estimates of individual flow volumes. Modelling results suggested both GIS-based predictive tools had associated benefits. Dominant flow routes observed in the field were generally well-predicted using the hydrological approach with a consideration of elevation error, while LAHARZ was comparatively more successful at mapping lahar dispersion and was better suited to long-term hazard assessment. This research suggests that end-member models can have utility for first-order dilute lahar hazard mapping.

  2. Managing a Monogenetic Volcanic Field As a World Heritage Nomination: Implications for Science, Outreach, and Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olive-Garcia, C.; van Wyk de Vries, B.

    2014-12-01

    Monogenetic volcanoes form a large proportion of the world's volcanoes. They are in all tectonic environments and thus provide a significant link to understand fundamental geological processes such as plate tectonics. The Chaîne des Puys - Limagne fault World Heritage nomination is a prime example of this link where monogenetic volcanism, continental rifting, uplift and erosion are highlighted, and are made understandable to the lay person, though the actions on over 80 aligned monogenetic volcanoes. Such geoheritage is essential for monogenetic and other geological risks to be communicated to the wider public. The current scientific interest on monogenetic volcanoes is quite recent, and because of this, and probably their global distribution but small size, they have not received their due importance from a geoheritage standpoint. Some individual sites and some fields are protected and developed as attractions, but there has been no coherent global strategy for defining monogenetic heritage, or for linking sites. This is starting through the monogenetic commission of IAVCEI, and with wider participation of the IUGS and other bodies. The Chaîne des Puys - Limagne Fault UNESCO project is an example of how public awareness, at a global scale, and be increased through geoheritage. This is done integrating local stakeholders: population, industry, science, landscapers, artists, sports, government. This builds on existing protection and sustainable activities, integrating them with education programs. The result is to create a populace that 'thinks geological', and which leads visitors to also become geologically aware. This is helped by a monogenetic landscape that is easily readable and by links made to other geological sites around the world. We will explain how this process is ongoing. The project started over 35 years ago, and is a long-term vision to develop geological understanding and protection of this unique monogenetic and tectono-volcanic site.

  3. Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Núñez, Gerardo; Díaz-Castellón, Rodolfo; Rodríguez, Sergio Raúl

    2007-02-01

    In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 "bald-earth" topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results. In general all three datasets, with spatial resolution of 90 m or better, were capable of resolving debris flow and lahar deposits at least 3 × 10 6 m 3 in volume or larger. Canopy- and slope-related height errors in the ASTER and SRTM DEMs limit their utility for measuring valley-filling cross-sectional area and deriving flow magnitude for the smallest deposits using a cross-sectional area to volume scaling equation. Height errors in the ASTER and SRTM DEMs also causes problems in resolving stream valley hydrography which controls lahar flow paths and stream valley morphology which controls lahar filling capacity. However, both of the two spaceborne DEM datasets are better than DTED-1 at resolving fine details in stream hydrography and erosional morphologies of volcaniclastics preserved in the valleys around the more humid, eastern flanks of the volcanic range. The results of LAHARZ flow inundation modeling using all three DEMs as inputs are remarkably similar and co-validate one another. For example, at Citlaltépetl all lahar simulations show that the city of Orizaba is the most vulnerable to flows similar in magnitude to, or larger than, one that occurred in 1920. Many of the other cities and towns illustrated are built higher up on terrace deposits of older debris flows, and are safe from all but

  4. D Visualization of Volcanic Ash Dispersion Prediction with Spatial Information Open Platform in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, J.; Kim, T.

    2016-06-01

    Visualization of disaster dispersion prediction enables decision makers and civilian to prepare disaster and to reduce the damage by showing the realistic simulation results. With advances of GIS technology and the theory of volcanic disaster prediction algorithm, the predicted disaster dispersions are displayed in spatial information. However, most of volcanic ash dispersion predictions are displayed in 2D. 2D visualization has a limitation to understand the realistic dispersion prediction since its height could be presented only by colour. Especially for volcanic ash, 3D visualization of dispersion prediction is essential since it could bring out big aircraft accident. In this paper, we deals with 3D visualization techniques of volcanic ash dispersion prediction with spatial information open platform in Korea. First, time-series volcanic ash 3D position and concentrations are calculated with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model and Modified Fall3D algorithm. For 3D visualization, we propose three techniques; those are 'Cube in the air', 'Cube in the cube', and 'Semi-transparent plane in the air' methods. In the 'Cube in the Air', which locates the semitransparent cubes having different color depends on its particle concentration. Big cube is not realistic when it is zoomed. Therefore, cube is divided into small cube with Octree algorithm. That is 'Cube in the Cube' algorithm. For more realistic visualization, we apply 'Semi-transparent Volcanic Ash Plane' which shows the ash as fog. The results are displayed in the 'V-world' which is a spatial information open platform implemented by Korean government. Proposed techniques were adopted in Volcanic Disaster Response System implemented by Korean Ministry of Public Safety and Security.

  5. Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

  6. Volcanic-ash hazard to aviation during the 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Ewert, J.W.; Gallina, G.M.; Bluth, G.J.S.; Swanson, G.L.

    2005-01-01

    Within the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Anatahan is one of nine active subaerial volcanoes that pose hazards to major air-traffic routes from airborne volcanic ash. The 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano affected the region's aviation operations for 3 days in May 2003. On the first day of the eruption (10 May 2003), two international flights from Saipan to Japan were cancelled, and several flights implemented ash-avoidance procedures. On 13 May 2003, a high-altitude flight through volcanic gas was reported, with no perceptible damage to the aircraft. TOMS and MODIS analysis of satellite data strongly suggests that no significant ash and only minor amounts of SO2 were involved in the incident, consistent with crew observations. On 23 May 2003, airport operations were disrupted when tropical-cyclone winds dispersed ash to the south, dusting Saipan with light ashfall and causing flight cancellations there and at Guam 320 km south of the volcano. Operational (near-real-time) monitoring of ash clouds produced by Anatahan has been conducted since the first day of the eruption on 10 May 2003 by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC). The VAAC was among the first groups outside of the immediate area of the volcano to detect and report on the unexpected eruption of Anatahan. After being contacted about an unusual cloud by National Weather Service forecasters in Guam at 1235 UTC on 10 May 2003, the VAAC analyzed GOES 9 images, confirming Anatahan as the likely source of an ash cloud and estimating that the eruption began at about 0730 UTC. The VAAC issued its first Volcanic Ash Advisory for Anatahan at 1300 UTC on 10 May 2003 more than 5 h after the start of the eruption, the delay reflecting the difficulty of detecting and confirming a surprise eruption at a remote volcano with no in situ real-time geophysical monitoring. The initial eruption plume reached 10.7-13.4 km (35,000-44,000 ft), well into jet cruise altitudes

  7. Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, B. D.; Gravley, D.; Clarke, A. B.; Bloomberg, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    The most dangerous phenomena associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions are dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These are turbulent, ground-hugging sediment gravity currents that travel radially away from the explosive center at up to 100 m/s. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, consists of approximately 50 eruptive centers, at least 39 of which have had explosive phreatomagmatic behaviour. A primary concern for future AVF eruptions is the impact of dilute PDCs in and around the Auckland area. We combine field observations from the Maungataketake tuff ring, which has one of the best exposures of dilute PDC deposits in the AVF, with a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, steady-state, depth-averaged dilute PDC (modified from Bursik and Woods, 1996 Bull Volcanol 58:175-193). The model allows us to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact on societal infrastructure of dilute PDCs from a future AVF eruption. The lower portion of the Maungataketake tuff ring pyroclastic deposits contains trunks, limbs and fragments of Podocarp trees (strength of the wood, we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) of 10-75 kPa are necessary to topple trees of this size and composition. Thus the two main criteria for model success based on the field evidence include (a) Pdyn must be >10 kPa nearer than 0.9 km to the vent, and 35 kPa can be expected within 3 km from source, ensuring complete destruction of the area; Pdyn > 15 kPa up to 5 km from source, resulting in heavy structural damage to most buildings and near destruction of weaker buildings; and Pdyn <10 kPa at ~6 km from source, resulting in severe damage to weaker structures at least up to this distance. This exercise illustrates our ability to combine field measurements with numerical techniques to explore controlling parameters of dilute PDC dynamics. These tools can be used to understand and estimate the damage potential and

  8. La Yeguada volcanic complex in the Republic of Panama: an assessment of the geologic hazards using 40ar/39ar geochronology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karinne L. Knutsen

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: La Yeguada volcanic complex is one of three Quaternary volcanic centers in Panama. To assess potential geologic hazards, new samples were analyzed using argon analysis (40Ar/39Ar , and obtained the following: the most recent eruption occurred approximately 32,000 years ago at the Media Luna cinder cone; the youngest dated eruption from the main dome complex occurred 357 ± 19 ka, producing the Castillo dome unit; Cerro Picacho, a separate dacite dome 1.5 km east of the main complex is 4.47 ± 0.23 Ma; and the El Satro Pyroclastic Flow unit surrounds the northern portion of the volcanic complex is 11.26 ± 0.17 Ma. No Holocene (10,000 years ago to present activity is recorded at the La Yeguada volcanic complex and therefore, it is unlikely to produce another eruption. The main geologic hazard at the La Yeguada volcanic complex is from landslides coming off the many steep slopes.

  9. Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating road hazard information using road side infrastructures in VANETs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, M A; Anand, Sheila

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating information about fixed road hazards such as road blocks, tree fall, boulders on road, snow pile up, landslide, road maintenance work and other obstacles to the vehicles approaching the hazardous location. The proposed work focuses on dissemination of hazard messages on highways with sparse traffic. The vehicle coming across the hazard would report the presence of the hazard. It is proposed to use Road Side fixed infrastructure Units for reliable and timely delivery of hazard messages to vehicles. The vehicles can then take appropriate safety action to avoid the hazardous location. The proposed protocol has been implemented and tested using SUMO simulator to generate road traffic and NS 2.33 network simulator to analyze the performance of DHRP. The performance of the proposed protocol was also compared with simple flooding protocol and the results are presented.

  10. Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2017-04-01

    The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

  11. Environmental Factor{trademark} system: RCRA hazardous waste handler information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Environmental Factor{trademark} RCRA Hazardous Waste Handler Information on CD-ROM unleashes the invaluable information found in two key EPA data sources on hazardous waste handlers and offers cradle-to-grave waste tracking. It`s easy to search and display: (1) Permit status, design capacity and compliance history for facilities found in the EPA Resource Conservation and Recovery Information System (RCRIS) program tracking database; (2) Detailed information on hazardous wastes generation, management and minimization by companies who are large quantity generators, and (3) Data on the waste management practices of treatment, storage and disposal (TSD) facilities from the EPA Biennial Reporting System which is collected every other year. Environmental Factor`s powerful database retrieval system lets you: (1) Search for RCRA facilities by permit type, SIC code, waste codes, corrective action or violation information, TSD status, generator and transporter status and more; (2) View compliance information -- dates of evaluation, violation, enforcement and corrective action; (3) Lookup facilities by waste processing categories of marketing, transporting, processing and energy recovery; (4) Use owner/operator information and names, titles and telephone numbers of project managers for prospecting; and (5) Browse detailed data on TSD facility and large quantity generators` activities such as onsite waste treatment, disposal, or recycling, offsite waste received, and waste generation and management. The product contains databases, search and retrieval software on two CD-ROMs, an installation diskette and User`s Guide. Environmental Factor has online context-sensitive help from any screen and a printed User`s Guide describing installation and step-by-step procedures for searching, retrieving and exporting. Hotline support is also available for no additional charge.

  12. A GIS-based volcanic hazard and risk assessment of eruptions sourced within Valles Caldera, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcorn, R.; Panter, K. S.; Gorsevski, P.; Ye, X.

    2013-05-01

    The Jemez Volcanic field in New Mexico is best known for the two cataclysmic eruptions that formed the Valles Caldera and deposited the Bandelier tuff at 1.61 and 1.25 Ma. This was followed by a period of small-scale activity limited to within the moat until ~ 55 ka when plinian eruptions sourced from the El Cajete crater dispersed tephra well beyond the caldera wall. These deposits include the El Cajete pyroclastic beds and the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Following the eruption of the Banco Bonito lava flow at ~40 ka, the Valles caldera has lain dormant. However, there is potential for future activity and it is prudent to assess the risk to the surrounding area and consider possible mitigation strategies well before a disaster strikes. The objective of this study is to evaluate the spatial extent of a possible future eruption using a GIS-based volcanic hazards tool designed to simulate pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) as well as lava flows [1] and to assess the social and economic vulnerability of the area at risk. Simulated pyroclastic fall deposits originating from the El Cajete crater are calibrated to isopach and lithic isopleth maps of the Lower and Upper El Cajete as constructed by [2]. The change in the axial orientation of fall deposits between the Lower and Upper El Cajete is best matched using seasonal variations in wind speed and direction based on modern atmospheric records. The calibration of PDCs is based on the distribution and run-out of the Battleship Rock Ignimbrite. Once calibrated, hazards are simulated at two other vent locations determined from probability distributions of structural features. The resulting hazard maps show the potential distribution of pyroclastic fall, PDCs and lava flows, indicating areas to the S/SE of Valles Caldera to be at greatest risk. To assess hazard preparedness, social vulnerability is evaluated for all census-designated places (CDP) within the study site. Based on methods by [3], twenty

  13. Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

    2017-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

  14. Volcanic risk: mitigation of lava flow invasion hazard through optimized barrier configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scifoni, S.; Coltelli, M.; Marsella, M.; Napoleoni, Q.; Del Negro, C.; Proietti, C.; Vicari, A.

    2009-04-01

    In order to mitigate the destructive effects of lava flows along volcanic slopes, the building of artificial barriers is a fundamental action for controlling and slowing down the lava flow advance, as experienced during a few recent eruptions of Etna. The simulated lava path can be used to define an optimize project to locate the work but for a timely action it is also necessary to quickly construct a barrier. Therefore this work investigates different type of engineering work that can be adopted to build up a lava containing barrier for improving the efficiency of the structure. From the analysis of historical cases it is clear that barriers were generally constructed by building up earth, lava blocks and incoherent, low density material. This solution implies complex operational constraints and logistical problems that justify the effort of looking for alternative design. Moreover for optimizing the barrier construction an alternative project of gabion-made barrier was here proposed. In this way the volume of mobilized material is lower than that for a earth barrier, thus reducing the time needed for build up the structure. A second crucial aspect to be considered is the geometry of the barrier which, is one of the few parameters that can be modulated, the others being linked to the morphological and topographical characteristics of the ground. Once the walls have been realized, it may be necessary to be able to expand the structure vertically. The use of gabion has many advantages over loose riprap (earthen walls) owing to their modularity and capability to be stacked in various shapes. Furthermore, the elements which are not inundated by lava can be removed and rapidly used for other barriers. The combination between numerical simulations and gabions will allow a quicker mitigation of risk on lava flows and this is an important aspect for a civil protection intervention in emergency cases.

  15. Science at the policy interface: volcano-monitoring technologies and volcanic hazard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Amy; Oppenheimer, Clive; Bravo, Michael

    2012-07-01

    This paper discusses results from a survey of volcanologists carried out on the Volcano Listserv during late 2008 and early 2009. In particular, it examines the status of volcano monitoring technologies and their relative perceived value at persistently and potentially active volcanoes. It also examines the role of different types of knowledge in hazard assessment on active volcanoes, as reported by scientists engaged in this area, and interviewees with experience from the current eruption on Montserrat. Conclusions are drawn about the current state of monitoring and the likely future research directions, and also about the roles of expertise and experience in risk assessment on active volcanoes; while local knowledge is important, it must be balanced with fresh ideas and expertise in a combination of disciplines to produce an advisory context that is conducive to high-level scientific discussion.

  16. Application of computer-assisted mapping to volcanic hazard evaluation of surge eruptions: Vulcano, lipari, and vesuvius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, Michael F.; Malin, Michael C.

    1983-09-01

    A previously developed computer-assisted model has been applied to several pyroclastic-surge eruptions at three active volcanoes in Italy. Model hazard maps created for various vent locations, eruption types, and mass production rates reasonably reproduced pyroclastic-surge deposits from several recent eruptions on Vulcano, Lipari, and Vesuvius. Small-scale phreatic eruptions on the island of Vulcano (e.g. the 1727 explosion of Forgia Vecchia) pose a limited but serious threat to the village of Porto. The most dangerous zone affected by this type of eruption follows a NNW fissure system between Fossa and Vulcanello. Moderate-sized eruptions on Vulcano, such as those associated with the present Fossa Crater are a much more serious threat to Porto as well as the entire area within the caldera surrounding the cone. The less frequent surge eruptions on Lipari have been even more violent. The extreme mobility of surges like those produced from Monte Guardia (approx. 20,000 y.b.p.) and Monte Pilato would not only threaten the entire island of Lipari, but also the northern part of neighboring Vulcano. Eruptions at Vesuvius with energy and efficiency similar to that of the May 18, 1980 blast of Mount St. Helens would be still more destructive because of the great initial elevation of the summit vent. In addition, surge eruptions at Vesuvius are generally part of more complex eruption cycles that involve several other types of volcanic phenomena including Plinian fall and pyroclastic flows.

  17. Toxics Release Inventory Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) Dataset

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) Chemical Hazard Information Profiles (TRI-CHIP) dataset contains hazard information about the chemicals reported in TRI. Users can...

  18. Frequency of damage by external hazards based on geographical information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, G. [RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin (Germany); Camarinopoulos, A.; Karali, T. [ERRA, Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, L. [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighborhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. In all cases, some accident is a necessary condition for a hazard. Another probabilistic element is the probability of ignition. If transport causes the explosion, the location of the accident will influence the consequences. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. In order to avoid unnecessarily pessimistic approaches, geographical information can be used in addition to local weather statistics. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. This information can be used to find frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. A probabilistic model has been developed. It is based on: - A joint probability density function for wind direction and wind speed, which has been estimated from local weather statistics, - Frequency of hazards for neighboring plants and various types of traffic, - Statistics on the amounts and types of explosive materials, - The model has been implemented using one numerical integrations method and two variants of Monte Carlo method. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Northern Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. In its present form, it makes use of design criteria specific for nuclear power plants, but these could be replaced by different criteria. (orig.)

  19. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  20. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  1. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-02-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green-yellow-red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  2. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

  3. Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

    2017-09-01

    The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, Augusto; Bevilacqua, Andrea; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Aspinall, Willy P.; Bisson, Marina; Flandoli, Franco; Baxter, Peter J.; Bertagnini, Antonella; Iannuzzi, Enrico; Orsucci, Simone; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Vitale, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    Campi Flegrei (CF) is an example of an active caldera containing densely populated settlements at very high risk of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). We present here an innovative method for assessing background spatial PDC hazard in a caldera setting with probabilistic invasion maps conditional on the occurrence of an explosive event. The method encompasses the probabilistic assessment of potential vent opening positions, derived in the companion paper, combined with inferences about the spatial density distribution of PDC invasion areas from a simplified flow model, informed by reconstruction of deposits from eruptions in the last 15 ka. The flow model describes the PDC kinematics and accounts for main effects of topography on flow propagation. Structured expert elicitation is used to incorporate certain sources of epistemic uncertainty, and a Monte Carlo approach is adopted to produce a set of probabilistic hazard maps for the whole CF area. Our findings show that, in case of eruption, almost the entire caldera is exposed to invasion with a mean probability of at least 5%, with peaks greater than 50% in some central areas. Some areas outside the caldera are also exposed to this danger, with mean probabilities of invasion of the order of 5-10%. Our analysis suggests that these probability estimates have location-specific uncertainties which can be substantial. The results prove to be robust with respect to alternative elicitation models and allow the influence on hazard mapping of different sources of uncertainty, and of theoretical and numerical assumptions, to be quantified.

  5. 78 FR 54956 - Agency Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ... AFFAIRS Agency Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment....rennie@va.gov . Please refer to ``OMB Control No. 2900-NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire.'' SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard...

  6. Natural Hazards and Disaster Information on the Internet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, John A.

    1997-01-01

    Provides brief descriptions of Internet sites for teachers wishing to access various hazard warnings, satellite images, hazard vulnerability maps, reports, and other data concerning geophysical, hydrologic, and meteorological hazards. Includes suggested classroom strategies and references to past articles in the "Journal of Geography" containing…

  7. 78 FR 44625 - Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-24

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment.... 2900--NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire,'' in...

  8. Geospatial Information is the Cornerstone of Effective Hazards Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Every day there are hundreds of natural disasters world-wide. Some are dramatic, whereas others are barely noticeable. A natural disaster is commonly defined as a natural event with catastrophic consequences for living things in the vicinity. Those events include earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, tsunami, volcanoes, and wildfires. Man-made disasters are events that are caused by man either intentionally or by accident, and that directly or indirectly threaten public health and well-being. These occurrences span the spectrum from terrorist attacks to accidental oil spills. To assist in responding to natural and potential man-made disasters, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has established the Geospatial Information Response Team (GIRT) (http://www.usgs.gov/emergency/). The primary purpose of the GIRT is to ensure rapid coordination and availability of geospatial information for effective response by emergency responders, and land and resource managers, and for scientific analysis. The GIRT is responsible for establishing monitoring procedures for geospatial data acquisition, processing, and archiving; discovery, access, and delivery of data; anticipating geospatial needs; and providing relevant geospatial products and services. The GIRT is focused on supporting programs, offices, other agencies, and the public in mission response to hazards. The GIRT will leverage the USGS Geospatial Liaison Network and partnerships with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), and Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to coordinate the provisioning and deployment of USGS geospatial data, products, services, and equipment. The USGS geospatial liaisons will coordinate geospatial information sharing with State, local, and tribal governments, and ensure geospatial liaison back-up support procedures are in place. The GIRT will coordinate disposition of USGS staff in support of DHS response center activities as requested by DHS. The GIRT

  9. Multivariate factorial analysis to design a robust batch leaching test to assess the volcanic ash geochemical hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggieri, Flavia; Gil, Raúl A; Fernandez-Turiel, Jose-Luis; Saavedra, Julio; Gimeno, Domingo; Lobo, Agustin; Martinez, Luis D; Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Alejandro

    2012-04-30

    A method to obtain robust information on short term leaching behaviour of volcanic ashes has been developed independently on the sample age. A mixed factorial design (MFD) was employed as a multivariate strategy for the evaluation of the effects of selected control factors and their interactions (amount of sample (A), contact time (B), and liquid to solid ratio or L/S (C)) on the leaching process of selected metals (Na, K, Mg, Ca, Si, Al, V, Mn, Fe, and Co) and anions (Cl(-) and SO(4)(2-)). Box plots of the data acquired were used to evaluate the reproducibility achieved at different experimental conditions. Both the amount of sample (A) and leaching time (B) had a significant effect on the element stripping whereas the L/S ratio influenced only few elements. The lowest dispersion values have been observed when 1.0 g was leached with an L/S ratio equal to 10, shaking during 4 h. The entire method is completed within few hours, and it is simple, feasible and reliable in laboratory conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. "Curso de Vulcanología General": Web-education efforts on volcanic hazards for the Latin American region from Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Hugo

    2016-04-01

    Education of volcanic hazards is a never-ending task in countries where volcanoes erupt very frequently as they do in the Latin American region (LAR). Eleven countries in the LAR have active volcanoes within their territories and some volcanoes are located in between countries so the volcanic hazards associated to the eruption of those volcanoes affect more than one country. Besides, countries without volcanoes within their territory (i. e. Belize, Honduras or Brazil) can be impacted as well. Personnel working at several volcano observatories in the LAR need training in Volcanology and, more importantly, in Volcanic Hazards. Unfortunately, Volcanology is a discipline that is not taught at universities of some countries. Even worse, Earth Sciences are not even taught at high education centers in some countries of the LAR. Thus, there is an important need for the acquisition of volcanological knowledge by the personnel working at volcano observatories but there are no possibilities for them to study at their countries or they are impended for travel abroad for training. The international course: "Curso de Vulcanología General" taught from Mexico City at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) has been successfully implemented and has been active over the last five years. Nearly 700 students have participated in this course although only ~150 have been awarded the certificate UNAM grants to the students who have concluded the course successfully. This course has been sponsored by UNAM, ALVO (Latin American Volcanological Association) and IAVCEI (International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior). More than 50 lecturers from LAR, Europe and US have been involved in these courses. Here, Reflections on the course, the opportunities sparkled, the educational tools, benefits, statistics and virtues of the course are presented.

  11. 78 FR 33894 - Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-05

    ... Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire) Activity: Comment Request... forms of information technology. Title: Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...@va.gov . Please refer to ``OMB Control No. 2900-NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard...

  12. Gas emission from diffuse degassing structures (DDS) of the Cameroon volcanic line (CVL): Implications for the prevention of CO2-related hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issa; Ohba, T.; Chako Tchamabé, B.; Padrón, E.; Hernández, P.; Eneke Takem, E. G.; Barrancos, J.; Sighomnoun, D.; Ooki, S.; Nkamdjou, Sigha; Kusakabe, M.; Yoshida, Y.; Dionis, S.

    2014-08-01

    In the mid-1980s, lakes Nyos and Monoun violently released massive gas, mainly magmatic CO2 killing about 1800 people. Subsequent geochemical surveys and social studies indicate that lakes Nyos and Monoun event is cyclic in nature and may occur anywhere in the about 37 other volcanic lakes located in the corridor of the Cameroon volcanic line (CVL). This potential threat motivated us to check if, alike Nyos and Monoun, the internal dynamic of the other lakes is also controlled by inputs of deep-seated-derived CO2 and attempt to measure and provide comprehensive insights on the passive gas emission along the CVL. This knowledge shall contribute to the prevention of volcanic lake-related hazards in Cameroon and the refinement of the Global Carbon Cycle. We used in situ fixation and dry gas phase sampling methods to determine CO2 origin and the concentration, and the accumulation chamber technique to measure diffuse CO2 emission from nine lakes and on soil at Nyos Valley and Mount Manenguba Caldera. The results suggest that, although in minor concentrations (compared to Nyos and Monoun), ranging from 0.56 mmol kg- 1 to 8.75 mmol kg- 1, the bottom waters of some lakes also contain measurable magmatic CO2 with δ13C varies from - 4.42‰ to - 9.16‰ vs. PDB. That finding implies that, under certain circumstances, e.g. increase to volcanic and/or tectonic activities along the CVL, the concerned lakes could develop a Nyos-type behavioural scheme. The diffuse gas emission results indicate that the nine surveyed lakes release approximately 3.69 ± 0.37 kt km- 2 yr- 1 of CO2 to the atmosphere; extrapolation to the approximately 39 volcanic lakes located on the CVL yields an approximate CO2 output of 27.37 ± 0.5 kt km- 2 yr- 1, representing 0.023% of the global CO2 output from volcanic lakes. In addition to the precedent value, the gas removal operation in lakes Nyos and Monoun released approximately 2.52 ± 0.46 × 108 mol km- 2 yr- 1 CO2 to the atmosphere from January

  13. Estimation of volcanic ash emissions with satellite data: The inclusion of mass loading and plume height information in modified 4D-Var

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Sha; Lin, Hai Xiang; Heemink, Arnold; Segers, Arjo; Fu, Guangliang

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic ash forecasting is a critical tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as injection height, total emission mass and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Satellite instrument is a powerful tool to monitor volcanic aerosol evolution and satellite total-column data has been integrated in the modeling process to achieve a better initial condition for the forecasting. However, the use of total-column data,which has no vertical resolution, usually leads to an ill-conditioned problem and ineffective estimation of emission parameters. Fortunately, techniques to retrieve the information of total ash mass loading and injection height from satellite data has been developed recently. It provides a new possibility to increase the accuracy of estimation results by integrating them into data assimilation systems. In this work we propose a modified 4D-Var approach which seek the vertical emission distribution by observing ash cloud transport patterns from satellite total-ash-columns data, and two ways of including the information of mass loading and plume height in the assimilation process. The modified 4D-Var based on trajectory statistics forms a reformulated cost function which computes the total difference between observed ash columns and a linear combination of simulated ensemble columns coupled with a priori emission knowledge ('background' term). The ensembles are generated by a volcanic ash transport model with the tracer released form different layers. Experiment shows such straightforward method does not always guarantee the identification of injection height with a short assimilation time window, and additional information of injection height is needed to correct the solution. We propose two tricks to incorporate the information: 1. add extra terms containing the information to the cost function as restriction term; 2. generate a

  14. Quantify landslide exposure in areas with limited hazard information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellicani, R.; Spilotro, G.; Van Westen, C. J.

    2012-04-01

    In Daunia region, located in the North-western part of Apulia (Southern Italy), landslides are the main source of damage to properties in the urban centers of the area, involving especially transportation system and the foundation stability of buildings. In the last 50 years, the growing demand for physical development of these unstable minor hillside and mountain centers has produced a very rapid expansion of built-up areas, often with poor planning of urban and territorial infrastructures, and invasion of the agricultural soil. Because of the expansion of the built-up towards not safe areas, human activities such as deforestation or excavation of slopes for road cuts and building sites, etc., have become important triggers for landslide occurrence. In the study area, the probability of occurrence of landslides is very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. Because the main limitations concern the availability of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance and landslide magnitude, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. Given these limitations in data availability and details, a qualitative exposure map has been produced and combined with a landslide susceptibility map, both generated using a spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) procedure in a GIS system, for obtaining the qualitative landslide risk map. The qualitative analysis has been provided the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to have a better definition of the risk level in the Daunia territory, the quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out. For transforming these information on economic consequences into landslide risk quantification, it was necessary to assume the temporal

  15. National information network and database system of hazardous waste management in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma Hongchang [National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

    1996-12-31

    Industries in China generate large volumes of hazardous waste, which makes it essential for the nation to pay more attention to hazardous waste management. National laws and regulations, waste surveys, and manifest tracking and permission systems have been initiated. Some centralized hazardous waste disposal facilities are under construction. China`s National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) has also obtained valuable information on hazardous waste management from developed countries. To effectively share this information with local environmental protection bureaus, NEPA developed a national information network and database system for hazardous waste management. This information network will have such functions as information collection, inquiry, and connection. The long-term objective is to establish and develop a national and local hazardous waste management information network. This network will significantly help decision makers and researchers because it will be easy to obtain information (e.g., experiences of developed countries in hazardous waste management) to enhance hazardous waste management in China. The information network consists of five parts: technology consulting, import-export management, regulation inquiry, waste survey, and literature inquiry.

  16. Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer

    2011-01-01

    Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

  17. Protecting against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer

    2011-01-01

    Protection against natural hazards - Information seeking behaviour in anticipation of severe weather events Severe weather events can have considerable impact on society, including tourism organisations and tourists. Providing accurate and timely information about possible risks due to environmental

  18. The Hazard Evaluation System and Information Service: A Physician's Resource in Toxicology and Occupational Medicine

    OpenAIRE

    Hooper, Kim

    1982-01-01

    Hazard evaluation is an emerging science. The Hazard Evaluation System and Information Service (HESIS), part of California's program in preventive occupational health, is a resource for clinicians who wish to stay abreast of the relationship between toxicology and occupational health. For example, advances in assays for cancer or reproductive effects in test animals enable us to identify with greater confidence significant cancer or reproductive hazards among the increasing variety of workpla...

  19. Hazardous materials management using a Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjeldgaard, E.; Fish, J.; Campbell, D.; Freshour, N.; Hammond, B.; Bray, O. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hollingsworth, M. [Ogden Environmental & Energy Services Co., Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-03-01

    Hazardous materials management includes interactions among materials, personnel, facilities, hazards, and processes of various groups within a DOE site`s environmental, safety & health (ES&H) and line organizations. Although each group is charged with addressing a particular aspect of these properties and interactions, the information it requires must be gathered into a coherent set of common data for accurate and consistent hazardous material management and regulatory reporting. It is these common data requirements which the Cradle-to-Grave Tracking and Information System (CGTIS) is designed to satisfy. CGTIS collects information at the point at which a process begins or a material enters a facility, and maintains that information, for hazards management and regulatory reporting, throughout the entire life-cycle by providing direct on-line links to a site`s multitude of data bases to bring information together into one common data model.

  20. An assessment of gas emanation hazard using a geographic information system and geostatistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astorri, F; Beaubien, S E; Ciotoli, G; Lombardi, S

    2002-03-01

    This paper describes the use of geostatistical analysis and GIS techniques to assess gas emanation hazards. The Mt. Vulsini volcanic district was selected for this study because of the wide range of natural phenomena locally present that affect gas migration in the near surface. In addition, soil gas samples that were collected in this area should allow for a calibration between the generated risk/hazard models and the measured distribution of toxic gas species at surface. The approach used during this study consisted of three general stages. First data were digitally organized into thematic layers, then software functions in the GIS program "ArcView" were used to compare and correlate these various layers, and then finally the produced "potential-risk" map was compared with radon soil gas data in order to validate the model and/or to select zones for further, more-detailed soil gas investigations.

  1. The use of geographical information systems for disaster risk reduction strategies: a case study of Volcan de Colima, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landeg, O.

    Contemporary disaster risk management requires the analysis of vulnerability and hazard exposure, which is imperative at Volcan de Colima (VdC), Mexico, due to the predicted, large-magnitude eruption forecast to occur before 2025. The methods used to gauge social vulnerability included the development and application of proxies to census records, the undertaking of a building vulnerability survey and the spatial mapping of civil and emergency infrastructure. Hazard exposure was assessed using primary modelling of laharic events and the digitalisation of secondary data sources detailing the modelled extent of pyroclastic flows and tephra deposition associated with a large-magnitude (VEI 5) eruption at VdC. The undertaking and analysis of a risk perception survey of the population enabled an understanding of the cognitive behaviour of residents towards the volcanic risk. In comparison to the published hazard map, the GIS analysis highlighted an underestimation of lahar hazard on the western flank of VdC and the regional tephra hazard. Vulnerability analysis identified three communities where social deprivation is relatively high, and those with significant elderly and transient populations near the volcano. Furthermore, recognition of the possibility of an eruption in the near future was found to be low across the study region. These results also contributed to the analysis of emergency management procedures and the preparedness of the regional authorities. This multidisciplinary research programme demonstrates the success of applying a GIS platform to varied integrative spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, ascertaining the impact of future activity at VdC upon its surrounding populations permits the evaluation of emergency preparedness and disaster risk reduction strategies.

  2. 77 FR 31005 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; 2013 Hazardous...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-24

    ... EPA Docket Center homepage at http://www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT... conduct a survey of hazardous waste generation at least every two years. The report, known as...

  3. Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

    2002-03-01

    Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

  4. The use of questionnaires for acquiring information on public perception of natural hazards and risk mitigation – a review of current knowledge and practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Questionnaires are popular and fundamental tools for acquiring information on public knowledge and perception of natural hazards. Questionnaires can provide valuable information to emergency management agencies for developing risk management procedures. Although many natural hazards researchers describe results generated from questionnaires, few explain the techniques used for their development and implementation. Methodological detail should include, as a minimum, response format (open/closed questions, mode of delivery, sampling technique, response rate and access to the questionnaire to allow reproduction of or comparison with similar studies. This article reviews current knowledge and practice for developing and implementing questionnaires. Key features include questionnaire design, delivery mode, sampling techniques and data analysis. In order to illustrate these aspects, a case study examines methods chosen for the development and implementation of questionnaires used to obtain information on knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards in a tourist region in southern Iceland. Face-to-face interviews highlighted certain issues with respect to question structure and sequence. Recommendations are made to overcome these problems before the questionnaires are applied in future research projects. In conclusion, basic steps that should be disclosed in the literature are provided as a checklist to ensure that reliable, replicable and valid results are produced from questionnaire based hazard knowledge and risk perception research.

  5. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    -economic conditions tending to influence longer term well-being and recovery. The volcanological community includes almost 100 Volcano Observatories worldwide, the official institutions responsible for monitoring volcanoes. They may be dedicated institutions, or operate from national institutions (geological surveys, universities, met agencies). They have a key role in early warning, forecasting and long term hazard assessment (often in the form of volcanic hazards maps). The complexity of volcanic systems means that once unrest begins there are multiple potential eruptive outcomes and short term forecasts can change rapidly. This local knowledge of individual volcanoes underpins hazard and risk assessments developed at national, regional and global scales. Combining this local expertise with the knowledge of the international research community (including interdisciplinary perspectives) creates a powerful partnership. A collaborative approach is therefore needed to develop effective volcanic risk assessments at regional to global scale. The World Organisation of Volcano Observatories is a Commission of IAVCEI, alongside other Commissions such as 'Hazard and Risk' (with an active working group on volcanic hazards maps) and the 'Cities and Volcanoes' Commission. The Global Volcano Model network is a collaborative initiative developing hazards and risk information at national to global scales, underpinned by local expertise. Partners include IAVCEI, Smithsonian Institution, International Volcanic Health Hazard Network, VHub and other initiatives and institutions.

  6. Information specificity and hazard risk potential as moderators of trust asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Mathew P; Richard Eiser, J

    2005-10-01

    Trust in risk managers appears to be an important antecedent of public acceptance for many hazards. However, such trust may be fragile since research suggests that negative performance information has a greater impact than positive performance information (Slovic, 1993). Closer examination of these findings suggests two potential moderators of this valence-related asymmetry-information specificity and hazard risk potential. First, we predicted that the asymmetry would be less evident for low versus high specificity information (risk management policies vs. concrete events). Second, we predicted that it would also be less evident for a low- versus high-risk hazard (pharmaceutical vs. nuclear industry). Study 1 reanalyzed Slovic's original trust asymmetry data for the nuclear industry. In line with Prediction 1, trust asymmetry was less evident for policy than event-related information. Using a new set of items with more clearly defined levels of specificity, Study 2 replicated and extended these findings for the high-risk hazard (nuclear power). In line with Prediction 2, trust asymmetry was even less evident for the low-risk hazard (pharmaceuticals). Positive policies in this industry actually had a greater impact on trust than negative ones, in contrast to previous findings. Results support an information diagnosticity account of earlier findings and suggest that trust in risk managers may be more robust than previously believed.

  7. Development of the method of landslide hazard assessment on areas of highways in terms of fuzzy information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Леонід Іванович Нефьодов

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Factors of landslide hazard on areas of highways have been analyzed. The main steps of fuzzy inference method are described. The method of landslide hazard assessment on areas of highways in terms of fuzzy information has been developed. The example of landslide hazard assessment on areas of highways in terms of fuzzy information in Matlab has been provided.

  8. Information technology in schools: Should the product be marked hazardous?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Olson

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available The power and the hazard go together. By means of ICT we can do more quickly and comprehensively what we could only do more slowly before. And if aspects of what we were doing before were problematic, they will be even more so thanks to the amplification provided by ICT. The amplifying power of ICT is one of the central themes of this paper. If instruction is routine and boring, computers can make it much more so. If products for schools were driven by commercial considerations before, they can be much more so with ICT - the investments are much higher. If schools had ways of monitoring teachers and children before, computers enhance that many times. If technologies were thought to drive what happens in schools before, ICT magnifies that potential many times. In short, computers allow us to do what we did before only more so - so if we did not do well before IT, we may well do worse with it. Or we may do better. We need to keep these questions open. The biggest danger is that in the rush to conform to visions of ICT we may stop asking them. We need a dialogue. The desire for dialogue has, however, frustrated many ICT advocates who see it as a form of resistance to change (Ameral, 1983; Papert, 2001; Yelland, 2002. From a philosophical point of view, we need a dialogue that considers the techniques of practices and the goods that such practices seek, as Macintyre (1981 and Strike (nd point out. Practices involve skills and techniques - which do not once and for all define the practice and which over time change the practice as the goals of practice - in this case teaching - change over time.In the first part of this paper I look at how ICT has come to play such a dominant role in schooling. Over the last 20 years we see a continuous press to adopt this technology. What we do not see is a debate about the plusses and minuses of computers in schools based on experience. This is a cause for concern. In the second part of the paper I look at what

  9. Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

  10. Information profiles on potential occupational hazards: Aminoazobenzenes. Draft report (Second)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-11-01

    Information profiles were prepared for the following aminoazobenzenes: 4-aminoazobenzene, 4-aminoazobenzene-3, 4'-disulfonic acid, 4-aminoazobenzene-3, 4'-disulfonic acid-disodium salt, 4-aminoazobenzene hydrochloride, 4'-aminoazobenzene-4-sulfonic acid, 4'-aminoazobenzene-4-sulfonic acid-sodium salt, ortho-aminoazotoluene, ortho-aminoazotoluene hydrochloride, C.I.-Disperse-Orange-3, C.I.-Disperse-Red-1, C.I.-Disperse-Red-5, C.I.-Disperse-Red-17, C.I.-Disperse-Yellow-3, chrysodine, 2,4-diaminoazobenzene, and N,N,-diethylaminoazobenze. Information suggested that these compounds were only mildly toxic following acute exposure. Organ damage was noted in the liver, kidneys, and spleen following subchronic or chronic exposure. After metabolic activation in the Ames assay, positive findings were obtained for 4-aminoazobenzene, chrysodine and ortho-animoazotoluene. Aminoazobenzenes, 4-aminoazobenzenes, chrysodine and ortho-aminoazotoluene have tested positively in carcinogenicity studies using laboratory mice. Ortho-aminoazotoluene crossed the placenta and increased tumor incidence in the F1 generation.

  11. Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

    2009-05-01

    Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

  12. Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Treatment Building Safety Information Document (SID)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatell, L.B.; Woolsey, G.B.

    1993-04-15

    This Safety Information Document (SID) provides a description and analysis of operations for the Hazardous Waste/Mixed Waste Disposal Facility Treatment Building (the Treatment Building). The Treatment Building has been classified as a moderate hazard facility, and the level of analysis performed and the methodology used are based on that classification. Preliminary design of the Treatment Building has identified the need for two separate buildings for waste treatment processes. The term Treatment Building applies to all these facilities. The evaluation of safety for the Treatment Building is accomplished in part by the identification of hazards associated with the facility and the analysis of the facility`s response to postulated events involving those hazards. The events are analyzed in terms of the facility features that minimize the causes of such events, the quantitative determination of the consequences, and the ability of the facility to cope with each event should it occur. The SID presents the methodology, assumptions, and results of the systematic evaluation of hazards associated with operation of the Treatment Building. The SID also addresses the spectrum of postulated credible events, involving those hazards, that could occur. Facility features important to safety are identified and discussed in the SID. The SID identifies hazards and reports the analysis of the spectrum of credible postulated events that can result in the following consequences: Personnel exposure to radiation; Radioactive material release to the environment; Personnel exposure to hazardous chemicals; Hazardous chemical release to the environment; Events leading to an onsite/offsite fatality; and Significant damage to government property. The SID addresses the consequences to the onsite and offsite populations resulting from postulated credible events and the safety features in place to control and mitigate the consequences.

  13. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  14. Testing a model-driven Geographical Information System for risk assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew; Latutrie, Benjamin; Andredakis, Ioannis; De Groeve, Tom; Langlois, Eric; van Wyk de Vries, Benjamin; Del Negro, Ciro; Favalli, Massimiliano; Fujita, Eisuke; Kelfoun, Karim; Rongo, Rocco

    2016-04-01

    RED-SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modeling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. It is an informal working group that has evolved around the philosophy of combining global scientific resources, in the realm of physical volcanology, remote sensing and modeling, to better define and limit uncertainty. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. The main recommendation of the workshop in terms of modeling was that there is a pressing need for "real-time input of reliable Time-Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) data with regular up-dates of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) if modeling is to be effective; the DEMs can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community." We thus set up a test to explore (i) which model source terms are needed, (ii) how they can be provided and updated, and (iii) how can models be run and applied in an ensemble approach. The test used two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaîne des Puys (Auvergne, France), for which a prototype Geographical Information System (GIS) was set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. This system drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building-type. After defining lava flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), five operational lava flow emplacement models were run (DOWNFLOW, FLOWGO, LAVASIM, MAGFLOW and VOLCFLOW) to produce a projection for likelihood of impact for all pixels within the area covered by the GIS, based on agreement between models. The test thus aimed not to assess the model output, but instead to examine overlapping output. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced. The exercise identified several

  15. Hazard responses in the pre-industrial era: vulnerability and resilience of traditional societies to volcanic disasters and the implications for present-day disaster planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangster, Heather

    2014-05-01

    A major research frontier in the study of natural hazard research involves unravelling the ways in which societies have reacted historically to disasters, and how such responses influence current policies of disaster reduction. For societies it is common to classify responses to natural hazards into: pre-industrial (folk); industrial; and post-industrial (comprehensive) responses. Pre-industrial societies are characterised by: a pre-dominantly rural location; an agricultural economic focus; artisan handicrafts rather than industrial production, parochialism, with people rarely travelling outside their local area and being little affected by external events and a feudal or semi-feudal social structure. In the past, hazard assessment focused on the physical processes that produced extreme and potentially damaging occurrences, however from the middle of the twenty-first century research into natural hazards has been cast within a framework defined by the polarities (or opposites) of vulnerability and resilience, subject to a blend of unique environmental, social, economic and cultural forces in hazardous areas, that either increase or decrease the impact of extreme events on a given society. In the past decade research of this type has been facilitated by a 'revolution' of source materials across a range of languages and in a variety of electronic formats (e.g. official archives; major contemporary and near-contemporary publications - often available as reprints; national and international newspapers of record; newsreel-films; and, photographs) and in the introduction of more reliable translation software (e.g. Systrans) that provides far more scope to the researcher in the study of natural hazards than was the case even a few years ago. Knowledge of hazard responses in the pre-industrial era is, not only important in its own right because it reveals indigenous strategies of coping, but also informs present-day disaster planners about how people have reacted to past

  16. Improving aviation safety with information visualization: Airflow hazard display for helicopter pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragon, Cecilia Rodriguez

    Many aircraft accidents each year are caused by encounters with airflow hazards near the ground, such as vortices or other turbulence. While such hazards frequently pose problems to fixed-wing aircraft, they are especially dangerous to helicopters, whose pilots often have to operate into confined areas or under operationally stressful conditions. Pilots are often unaware of these invisible hazards while simultaneously attending to other aspects of aircraft operation close to the ground. Recent advances in aviation sensor technology offer the potential for aircraft-based sensors that can gather large amounts of airflow velocity data in real time. This development is likely to lead to the production of onboard detection systems that can convey detailed, specific information about imminent airflow hazards to pilots. A user interface is required that can present extensive amounts of data to the pilot in a useful manner in real time, yet not distract from the pilot's primary task of flying the aircraft. In this dissertation, we address the question of how best to present safety-critical visual information to a cognitively overloaded user in real time. We designed an airflow hazard visualization system according to user-centered design principles, implemented the system in a high fidelity, aerodynamically realistic rotorcraft flight simulator, and evaluated it via usability studies with experienced military and civilian helicopter pilots. We gathered both subjective data from the pilots' evaluations of the visualizations, and objective data from the pilots' performance during the landing simulations. Our study demonstrated that information visualization of airflow hazards, when presented to helicopter pilots in the simulator, dramatically improved their ability to land safely under turbulent conditions. Although we focused on one particular aviation application, the results may be relevant to user interfaces and information visualization in other safety

  17. Information asymmetries and moral hazards in financal activities: problems and ways of overcoming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлія Михайлівна Коваленко

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the nature and problems of information asymmetry in financial activities. The influence of moral hazard on the functioning of financial corporations in the world is determined. The current problems of national public finances related to rescue financial corporations in crisis and post-crisis periods are analyzed. The measures to ensure transparency of financial activities are proposed

  18. 75 FR 40839 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazard Analysis...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-14

    ... procedures to fruit and vegetable juice processing. HACCP is a preventative system of hazard control that can be used by all food processors to ensure the safety of their products to consumers. A HACCP system of... and recordkeeping are essential parts of any HACCP system. The information collection requirements...

  19. 78 FR 69689 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazard Analysis...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-20

    ... principles to the processing of fruit and vegetable juices. HACCP is a preventive system of hazard control... regulations for the efficient enforcement of that act. The rationale in establishing an HACCP system of... development and recordkeeping are essential parts of any HACCP system. The information collection...

  20. Identifying hazard parameter to develop quantitative and dynamic hazard map of an active volcano in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suminar, Wulan; Saepuloh, Asep; Meilano, Irwan

    2016-05-01

    Analysis of hazard assessment to active volcanoes is crucial for risk management. The hazard map of volcano provides information to decision makers and communities before, during, and after volcanic crisis. The rapid and accurate hazard assessment, especially to an active volcano is necessary to be developed for better mitigation on the time of volcanic crises in Indonesia. In this paper, we identified the hazard parameters to develop quantitative and dynamic hazard map of an active volcano. The Guntur volcano in Garut Region, West Java, Indonesia was selected as study area due population are resided adjacent to active volcanoes. The development of infrastructures, especially related to tourism at the eastern flank from the Summit, are growing rapidly. The remote sensing and field investigation approaches were used to obtain hazard parameters spatially. We developed a quantitative and dynamic algorithm to map spatially hazard potential of volcano based on index overlay technique. There were identified five volcano hazard parameters based on Landsat 8 and ASTER imageries: volcanic products including pyroclastic fallout, pyroclastic flows, lava and lahar, slope topography, surface brightness temperature, and vegetation density. Following this proposed technique, the hazard parameters were extracted, indexed, and calculated to produce spatial hazard values at and around Guntur Volcano. Based on this method, the hazard potential of low vegetation density is higher than high vegetation density. Furthermore, the slope topography, surface brightness temperature, and fragmental volcanic product such as pyroclastics influenced to the spatial hazard value significantly. Further study to this proposed approach will be aimed for effective and efficient analyses of volcano risk assessment.

  1. User perception and interpretation of tornado probabilistic hazard information: Comparison of four graphical designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans

    2017-11-01

    Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas, Robert; Harrison, Matthew; Barredo, José I.; Thomas, Florian; Llorente Isidro, Miguel; Cerba, Otakar; Pfeiffer, Manuela

    2014-05-01

    The vast amount of information and data necessary for comprehensive hazard and risk assessment presents many challenges regarding the lack of accessibility, comparability, quality, organisation and dissemination of natural hazards spatial data. In order to mitigate these limitations an interoperable framework has been developed in the framework of the development of legally binding Implementing rules of the EU INSPIRE Directive1* aiming at the establishment of the European Spatial Data Infrastructure. The interoperability framework is described in the Data Specification on Natural risk zones - Technical Guidelines (DS) document2* that was finalized and published on 10.12. 2013. This framework provides means for facilitating access, integration, harmonisation and dissemination of natural hazard data from different domains and sources. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the interoperable framework developed in the DS and highlights the key aspects of the interoperability to the various natural hazards communities. Secondly, the paper "translates" into common language the main features and potentiality of the interoperable framework of the DS for a wider audience of scientists and practitioners in the natural hazards domain. Further in this paper the main five aspects of the interoperable framework will be presented. First, the issue of a common terminology for the natural hazards domain will be addressed. A common data model to facilitate cross domain data integration will follow secondly. Thirdly, the common methodology developed to provide qualitative or quantitative assessments of natural hazards will be presented. Fourthly, the extensible classification schema for natural hazards developed from a literature review and key reference documents from the contributing community of practice will be shown. Finally, the applicability of the interoperable framework for the various stakeholder groups will be also

  3. Hazards Assessment of Regional Debris Flows Based on Geographic Information Science

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG Xiaobo; GUI Peng

    2007-01-01

    Supported by the spatial analysis feature of geographic information science and assessment model of regional debris flows, hazards degrees of the debris flows in the Upper Yangtze River Watershed (UYRW) are divided into five grades based on grid cell. The area of no danger, light danger, medium danger, severe danger and extreme severe danger regions respectively are 278 000, 288 000, 217 000, 127 000, 15 000 km2. Furthermore, the counties in the UYRW are classified into four classes based on the hazards degrees in each county. The number of severe danger, medium danger, light danger and no danger counties respectively are 49, 82, 77 and 105. The assessment results will be provided for the hazards forecasting and mitigation in the UYRW and ongoing regionalization of Main Function Regions in China as data and technique framework.

  4. Availability of information about airborne hazardous releases from animal feeding operations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyler J S Smith

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Air from animal feeding operations (AFOs has been shown to transport numerous contaminants of public health concern. While federal statutes like the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA generally require that facilities report hazardous releases, AFOs have been exempted from most of these requirements by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA. We assessed the availability of information about AFO airborne hazardous releases following these exemptions. METHODS: We submitted public records requests to 7 states overlapping with or adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay watershed for reports of hazardous releases made by AFOs under EPCRA. From the records received, we calculated the proportion of AFOs in each state for which ≥1 reports were available. We also determined the availability of specific types of information required under EPCRA. The numbers of AFOs permitted under the Clean Water Act (CWA or analogous state laws, as determined from permitting databases obtained from states, were used as denominators. RESULTS: We received both EPCRA reports and permitting databases from 4 of 7 states. Across these 4 states, the mean proportion of AFOs for which ≥1 EPCRA reports were available was 15% (range: 2-33%. The mean proportions of AFOs for which the name or identity of the substance released, ≥1 estimates of quantity released, and information about nearby population density and sensitive populations were available were 15% (range: 2-33%, 8% (range: 0-22%, and 14% (range: 2-8%, respectively. DISCUSSION: These results suggest that information about the airborne hazardous releases of a large majority of AFOs is not available under federal law in the states that we investigated. While the results cannot be attributed to specific factors by this method, attention to multiple factors, including revision of the EPA's exemptions, may increase the availability of information relevant to the health of populations

  5. Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, M.; Day, S. J.; Teeuw, R. M.; Solana, C.; Sensky, T.

    2014-12-01

    This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education.Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

  6. Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

    2015-04-01

    This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

  7. A combined field and numerical approach to understanding dilute pyroclastic density current dynamics and hazard potential: Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Brittany D.; Gravley, Darren M.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Bloomberg, Simon H.; Agustin-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly

    2014-04-01

    The most dangerous and deadly hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; Auckland, New Zealand) are those related to volcanic base surges - dilute, ground-hugging, particle laden currents with dynamic pressures capable of severe to complete structural damage. We use the well-exposed base surge deposits of the Maungataketake tuff ring (Manukau coast, Auckland), to reconstruct flow dynamics and destructive potential of base surges produced during the eruption. The initial base surge(s) snapped trees up to 0.5 m in diameter near their base as far as 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this distance the trees were encapsulated and buried by the surge in growth position. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) in excess of 12-35 kPa are necessary to cause the observed damage. Next we develop a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to determine the damage potential of the base surges produced during the early phases of the eruption and explore the implications of this potential on future eruptions in the region. We find that initial conditions with velocities on the order of 65 m s- 1, bulk density of 38 kg m- 3 and initial, near-vent current thicknesses of 60 m reproduce the field-based Pdyn estimates and runout distances. A sensitivity analysis revealed that lower initial bulk densities result in shorter run-out distances, more rapid deceleration of the current and lower dynamic pressures. Initial velocity does not have a strong influence on run-out distance, although higher initial velocity and slope slightly decrease runout distance due to higher rates of atmospheric entrainment. Using this model we determine that for base surges with runout distances of up to 4 km, complete destruction can be expected within 0.5 km from the vent, moderate destruction can be expected up to 2 km, but much

  8. Hazard information management during the autumn 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens volcano, Washington: Chapter 24 in A volcano rekindled: the renewed eruption of Mount St. Helens, 2004-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driedger, Carolyn L.; Neal, Christina A.; Knappenberger, Tom H.; Needham, Deborah H.; Harper, Robert B.; Steele, William P.; Sherrod, David R.; Scott, William E.; Stauffer, Peter H.

    2008-01-01

    The 2004 reawakening of Mount St. Helens quickly caught the attention of government agencies as well as the international news media and the public. Immediate concerns focused on a repeat of the catastrophic landslide and blast event of May 18, 1980, which remains a vivid memory for many individuals. Within several days of the onset of accelerating seismicity, media inquiries increased exponentially. Personnel at the U.S. Geological Survey, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and the Gifford Pinchot National Forest soon handled hundreds of press inquiries and held several press briefings per day. About one week into the event, a Joint Information Center was established to help maintain a consistent hazard message and to provide a centralized information source about volcanic activity, hazards, area closures, and media briefings. Scientists, public-affairs specialists, and personnel from emergency-management, health, public-safety, and land-management agencies answered phones, helped in press briefings and interviews, and managed media access to colleagues working on science and safety issues. For scientists, in addition to managing the cycle of daily fieldwork, challenges included (1) balancing accurate interpretations of data under crisis conditions with the need to share information quickly, (2) articulating uncertainties for a variety of volcanic scenarios, (3) minimizing scientific jargon, and (4) frequently updating and effectively distributing talking points. Success of hazard information management during a volcanic crisis depends largely on scientists’ clarity of communication and thorough preplanning among interagency partners. All parties must commit to after-action evaluation and improvement of communication plans, incorporating lessons learned during each event.

  9. The hazard evaluation system and information service: a physician's resource in toxicology and occupational medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, K

    1982-12-01

    Hazard evaluation is an emerging science. The Hazard Evaluation System and Information Service (HESIS), part of California's program in preventive occupational health, is a resource for clinicians who wish to stay abreast of the relationship between toxicology and occupational health. For example, advances in assays for cancer or reproductive effects in test animals enable us to identify with greater confidence significant cancer or reproductive hazards among the increasing variety of workplace exposures. Occupational experiences with dibromochloropropane (DBCP), Kepone, bis(chloromethyl) ether, benzidine and vinyl chloride demonstrate the shortcomings of relying on human data. The latency period of cancer, limited sensitivity of epidemiologic studies and severity of effects require us to use animal test data to evaluate the potential cancer and reproductive risks of workplace substances. HESIS gives appropriate weight to experimental data in hazard evaluations of chemicals such as ethylene oxide, ethylene dibromide, polychlorinated biphenyls and the glycol ethers. A similar approach is apparent in the California Department of Health Services' recently released Carcinogen Identification Policy.

  10. Studies of crustal structure, seismic precursors to volcanic eruptions and earthquake hazard in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mavonga, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, civil wars in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo have caused massive social disruptions, which have been exacerbated by volcanic and earthquake disasters. Seismic data were gathered and analysed as part...

  11. A Decade of Volcanic Observations from Aura and the A-Train

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carn, Simon A.; Krotkov, Nickolay Anatoly; Yang, Kai; Krueger, Arlin J.; Hughes, Eric J.; Wang, Jun; Flower, Verity; Telling, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Aura observations have made many seminal contributions to volcanology. Prior to the Aura launch, satellite observations of volcanic degassing (e.g., from TOMS) were mostly restricted to large eruptions. However, the vast majority of volcanic gases are released during quiescent 'passive' degassing between eruptions. The improved sensitivity of Aura OMI permitted the first daily, space-borne measurements of passive volcanic SO2 degassing, providing improved constraints on the source locations and magnitude of global SO2 emissions for input to atmospheric chemistry and climate models. As a result of this unique sensitivity to volcanic activity, OMI data were also the first satellite SO2 measurements to be routinely used for volcano monitoring at several volcano observatories worldwide. Furthermore, the Aura OMI SO2 data also offer unprecedented sensitivity to volcanic clouds in the UTLS, elucidating the transport, fate and lifetime of volcanic SO2 and providing critical input to aviation hazard mitigation efforts. Another major advance has been the improved vertical resolution of volcanic clouds made possible by synergy between Aura and other A-Train instruments (e.g., AIRS, CALIPSO, CloudSat), advanced UV SO2 altitude retrievals, and inverse trajectory modeling of detailed SO2 cloud maps. This altitude information is crucial for climate models and aviation hazards. We will review some of the highlights of a decade of Aura observations of volcanic activity and look ahead to the future of volcanic observations from space.

  12. Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

    2014-12-01

    The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern

  13. Coproduction of flood hazard assessment with public participation geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, W. H.; Houston, D.; Schubert, J.; Basolo, V.; Feldman, D.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.; Karlin, B.; Goodrich, K.; Contreras, S.; Reyes, A.; Serrano, K.; Luke, A.

    2015-12-01

    While advances in computing have enabled the development of more precise and accurate flood models, there is growing interest in the role of crowdsourced local knowledge in flood modeling and flood hazard assessment. In an effort to incorporate the "wisdom of the crowd" in the identification and mitigation of flood hazard, this public participation geographic information system (PPGIS) study leveraged tablet computers and cloud computing to collect mental maps of flooding from 166 households in Newport Beach, California. The mental maps were analyzed using GIS techniques and compared with professional hydrodynamic model of coastal flooding. The results revealed varying levels of agreement between residents' mental maps and professional model of flood risk in regions with different personal and contextual characteristics. The quantification of agreement using composite indices can help validate professional models, and can also alert planners and decisionmakers of the need to increase flood awareness among specific populations.

  14. Using Remotely Sensed Information for Near Real-Time Landslide Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Peters-Lidard, Christa

    2013-01-01

    The increasing availability of remotely sensed precipitation and surface products provides a unique opportunity to explore how landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment may be approached at larger spatial scales with higher resolution remote sensing products. A prototype global landslide hazard assessment framework has been developed to evaluate how landslide susceptibility and satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used to identify potential landslide conditions in near-real time. Preliminary analysis of this algorithm suggests that forecasting errors are geographically variable due to the resolution and accuracy of the current susceptibility map and the application of satellite-based rainfall estimates. This research is currently working to improve the algorithm through considering higher spatial and temporal resolution landslide susceptibility information and testing different rainfall triggering thresholds, antecedent rainfall scenarios, and various surface products at regional and global scales.

  15. Environmental Product Development Combining the Life Cycle Perspective with Chemical Hazard Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Askham, Cecilia

    Concerns regarding the short- and long-term detrimental effects of chemicals on human health and ecosystems have made the minimisation of chemical hazards a vitally important issue. If sustainable development is to be achieved, environmental efficient products (and product life cycles......) are essential. Many life cycle assessments of product systems are performed without the inclusion of toxicity data and indicators. Ecodesign processes for products are often based upon just one, or very few, environmental indicators. Regulatory issues are sometimes addressed in an ad hoc fashion, often late...... in the design or redesign process. This thesis concerns marrying the life cycle perspective with chemical hazard information, in order to advance the practice of environmental product development, and hence takes further steps towards sustainable development. The need to consider the full value chain...

  16. Development of Visualisations for Multi-Hazard Environments in Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2015-04-01

    Here we present an adaptation of global interacting hazard matrices for the purpose of improving disaster risk reduction in multi-hazard environments of Guatemala. Guatemala is associated with multiple natural hazards, including volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, mass movements and floods. These processes are often not independent and it is therefore important to consider and understand the ways by which they interact to generate cascades or networks of natural hazard events. We first present a review of such hazard interactions and hazard chains in Guatemala, focusing on the volcanic environments around Pacaya, Fuego and Santiaguito. Interactions discussed are those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards. Consideration is also given to interactions where two hazards combine to trigger a third hazard, or two concurring hazards result in impacts greater than the sum of components. Second, we utilise and adapt global interacting hazard matrices designed to understand and communicate information about interactions. We explore the use of this hazard visualisation framework within the more regional Guatemalan context. Twenty-one semi-structured interviews, and a workshop with 16 participants, were held with hazard and civil protection professionals in Guatemala to solicit feedback on: (i) how visualisations with a global focus can be modified for use in Guatemala, (ii) possible end users for such visualisations, and (iii) participants' understanding of hazard interactions and their opinion of community understanding of these themes. Core ideas that emerged from these interviews were (i) the importance of such tools in rapid response, preparedness and community education, (ii) the appropriate scales for visualisation development, in order to have maximum impact, and (iii) the need to integrate anthropic factors to fully understand hazard cascades. It is hoped that the development of improved tools to understand natural hazard

  17. Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaillard, Jean-Christophe

    2008-05-01

    The literature on people's response to volcanic hazards tends to be split between two paradigms. The first argues that the choice of adjustment depends on how people perceive rare and extreme volcanic phenomena and the associated risk. The second considers that people's behavior in the face of natural hazards is constrained by social, economic and political forces beyond their control. The present paper addresses both paradigms and demonstrates that, in order to understand people's behavior in the face of volcanic threats, volcanic risk perception has to be balanced with non-hazard related factors and structural constraints. These conclusions are based on a case study of Mt. Pinatubo and the lingering threat of lahars from the 1991 eruption. Drawing on the results of a questionnaire-based survey and additional interviews with key informants, it is shown that a high perception of risk does not stop people from choosing to forms of living that put them at high threat from lahars. Furthermore, the paper argues that insufficient opportunity for making a livelihood in resettlement centers and strong attachment to native villages push people back to the banks of lahar channels. Everyday hazards of poverty and the threat to cultural heritage weighed heavier than this seasonal natural hazard. In other words, in a context of economic and social hardship, risk perception of volcanic hazards is necessarily balanced with other risk perceptions. This study does not argue that risk perception is unimportant for understanding people's adjustment to volcanic environments but rather stresses the need for placing it in its larger and daily contexts which are independent of volcanic hazards.

  18. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jr., Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research - founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes - can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H-SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

  19. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jr., Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

  20. Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Siebert, L.; Hubbard, B.; Sheridan, M.F.; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

    2006-01-01

    The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic

  1. Developing a simplified geographical information system approach to dilute lahar modelling for rapid hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnell, A. R.; Phillips, J. C.; Barclay, J.; Herd, R. A.; Lovett, A. A.; Cole, P. D.

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we present a geographical information system (GIS)-based approach to enable the estimation of lahar features important to rapid hazard assessment (including flow routes, velocities and travel times). Our method represents a simplified first stage in extending the utility of widely used existing GIS-based inundation models, such as LAHARZ, to provide estimates of flow speeds. LAHARZ is used to determine the spatial distribution of a lahar of constant volume, and for a given cell in a GIS grid, a single-direction flow routing technique incorporating the effect of surface roughness directs the flow according to steepest descent. The speed of flow passing through a cell is determined from coupling the flow depth, change in elevation and roughness using Manning's formula, and in areas where there is little elevation difference, flow is routed to locally maximum increase in velocity. Application of this methodology to lahars on Montserrat, West Indies, yielded support for this GIS-based approach as a hazard assessment tool through tests on small volume (5,000-125,000 m3) dilute lahars (consistent with application of Manning's law). Dominant flow paths were mapped, and for the first time in this study area, velocities (magnitudes and spatial distribution) and average travel times were estimated for a range of lahar volumes. Flow depth approximations were also made using (modified) LAHARZ, and these refined the input to Manning's formula. Flow depths were verified within an order of magnitude by field observations, and velocity predictions were broadly consistent with proxy measurements and published data. Forecasts from this coupled method can operate on short to mid-term timescales for hazard management. The methodology has potential to provide a rapid preliminary hazard assessment in similar systems where data acquisition may be difficult.

  2. New Insights Into Volcanic Hazards in Western Mexico: Multiple Cone-Building Episodes at Arc Stratovolcanoes Revealed by 40Ar/39Ar Geochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H. M.; Lewis-Kenedi, K.; Lange, R. A.; Hall, C. M.; Delgado-Granados, H.

    2003-12-01

    The detailed eruptive histories of two andesitic stratocones, Volcáns Ceboruco and Tequila, in the western Mexican arc have been documented using 40Ar/39Ar geochronology. The volumes of these volcanoes were obtained with mapping, airphotos, and digital elevation models. The age and volume data constrain the rate and duration of major cone-building events, which bears on the longevity of the underlying upper-crustal magma chambers that fed the eruptions. The results indicate that at each stratovolcano there were two discrete cone-building events, separated by a hiatus. At V. Tequila, six samples from the edifice yielded dates (196 +/- 8, 196 +/- 19, 178 +/- 8, 191 +/- 13, 216 +/- 11, and 198 +/- 11 ka; errors are 1 sigma) with a mean eruption age of 196 +/- 12 ka. Thus the bulk of the main edifice ( ˜31 km3) erupted within 24 kyrs (at the 2 sigma level), leading to a cone-building rate of > 1.3 km3/kyr. After a hiatus of ˜110 kyrs, ˜14 km3 of andesite erupted along the NW and SE flanks of V. Tequila at 90 +/- 19 ka. The last activity at V. Tequila produced a ˜2 km3 parasitic cone at ˜60 ka. Since an eruption has not occurred in the last 60 kyrs, V. Tequila is often considered an extinct volcano. This may be the view held by the > 75,000 inhabitants of the town of Tequila located on the northern flanks. A similar history of two discrete cone-building events is found at V. Ceboruco, ˜75 km to the NW. Seven samples taken from various parts of the edifice, including the inner caldera wall, indicate an initial cone-building event at ˜45 ka in which ˜37 km3 of andesite erupted. After a hiatus of nearly 44 kyrs, a second eruptive period began ˜1000 years ago. The first eruption to occur after the hiatus was Plinian and released 3-4 km3 of dacite. In the last 1 kyr, 9.5 km3 of andesite and dacite erupted effusively, culminating in the historic 1870 flow. The sobering conclusion, in terms of volcanic hazards assessment, is that the only Plinian eruption to occur

  3. Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-07-26

    This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

  4. Assessing the volcanic hazard for Rome: 40Ar/39Ar and In-SAR constraints on the most recent eruptive activity and present-day uplift at Colli Albani Volcanic District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marra, F.; Gaeta, M.; Giaccio, B.; Jicha, B. R.; Palladino, D. M.; Polcari, M.; Sottili, G.; Taddeucci, J.; Florindo, F.; Stramondo, S.

    2016-07-01

    We present new 40Ar/39Ar data which allow us to refine the recurrence time for the most recent eruptive activity occurred at Colli Albani Volcanic District (CAVD) and constrain its geographic area. Time elapsed since the last eruption (36 kyr) overruns the recurrence time (31 kyr) in the last 100 kyr. New interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, covering the years 1993-2010, reveal ongoing inflation with maximum uplift rates (>2 mm/yr) in the area hosting the most recent (<200 ka) vents, suggesting that the observed uplift might be caused by magma injection within the youngest plumbing system. Finally, we frame the present deformation within the structural pattern of the area of Rome, characterized by 50 m of regional uplift since 200 ka and by geologic evidence for a recent (<2000 years) switch of the local stress-field, highlighting that the precursors of a new phase of volcanic activity are likely occurring at the CAVD.

  5. Hazardous Waste Clean-Up Information (CLU-IN) On-line Characterization and Remediation Databases Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    This fact sheet provides an overview of the 10 on-line characterization and remediation databases available on the Hazardous Waste Clean-Up Information (CLU-IN) website sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

  6. National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; ,

    2007-01-01

    The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

  7. Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

    2009-04-01

    Similar to many megacities in the world, Dhaka is regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. Greater Dhaka is expected to grow from 13.5 million inhabitants in 2007 to 22 million inhabitants by 2025. The vast majority of this growth will take place in informal settlements. Due to the setting of Greater Dhaka in a deltaic plain, the sprawl of slums is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other flood-prone areas. Slum dwellers and informal businesses are vulnerable, but have somehow learned to cope with seasonal floods and developed specific adaptation strategies. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, however, would put considerable stress on the adaptability of the social and economic system. DhakaHazard, a joint research project of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Bonn and the Department of Geography at the University of Cologne, takes up these issues in an interdisciplinary approach. The project, which begun in November 2008, aims to achieve two main objectives: To link analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies to models on future climate change and weather extremes. To estimate more accurately the future frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and floods which are crucial for the future adaptability of informal systems. To fulfill these objectives, scientists at the Meteorological Institute are studying the evolution of natural hazards in Bangladesh, while researchers at the Department of Geography are undertaking the task of assessing these hazards from a social point of view. More specifically, the meteorologists are identifying global and regional weather conditions resulting in flooding of the Greater Dhaka region, while possible variations in flood-inducing weather patterns are analyzed by evaluating their frequency and magnitude

  8. Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

    2008-05-01

    Understanding how people perceive risk has become increasingly important for improving risk communication and reducing risk associated conflicts. This paper builds upon findings, methodologies and lessons learned from other fields to help understand differences between scientists, authorities and the public. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyse underlying attitudes and judgements during an ongoing volcanic crisis on the Caribbean Island of Montserrat. Specific differences between the public, authorities and scientists were found to have been responsible for misunderstandings and misinterpretations of information and roles, resulting in differing perceptions of acceptable risk. Difficulties in the articulation and understanding of uncertainties pertaining to the volcanic risk led to a situation in which the roles of hazard monitoring, risk communication and public protection became confused. In addition, social, economic and political forces were found to have distorted risk messages, leading to a public reliance upon informal information networks. The implications of these findings for volcanic risk management and communication are discussed.

  9. Asymmetric Information in Iranian’s Health Insurance Market: Testing of Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfi, Farhad; Gorji, Hassan Abolghasem; Mahdavi, Ghadir; Hadian, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: Asymmetric information is one of the most important issues in insurance market which occurred due to inherent characteristics of one of the agents involved in insurance contracts; hence its management requires designing appropriate policies. This phenomenon can lead to the failure of insurance market via its two consequences, namely, adverse selection and moral hazard. Objective: This study was aimed to evaluate the status of asymmetric information in Iran’s health insurance market with respect to the demand for outpatient services. Materials/sPatients and Methods: This research is a cross sectional study conducted on households living in Iran. The data of the research was extracted from the information on household’s budget survey collected by the Statistical Center of Iran in 2012. In this study, the Generalized Method of Moment model was used and the status of adverse selection and moral hazard was evaluated through calculating the latent health status of individuals in each insurance category. To analyze the data, Excel, Eviews and stata11 software were used. Results: The estimation of parameters of the utility function of the demand for outpatient services (visit, medicine, and Para-clinical services) showed that households were more risk averse in the use of outpatient care than other goods and services. After estimating the health status of households based on their health insurance categories, the results showed that rural-insured people had the best health status and people with supplementary insurance had the worst health status. In addition, the comparison of the conditional distribution of latent health status approved the phenomenon of adverse selection in all insurance groups, with the exception of rural insurance. Moreover, calculation of the elasticity of medical expenses to reimbursement rate confirmed the existence of moral hazard phenomenon. Conclusions: Due to the existence of the phenomena of adverse selection and moral hazard

  10. Asymmetric Information in Iranian's Health Insurance Market: Testing of Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotfi, Farhad; Abolghasem Gorji, Hassan; Mahdavi, Ghadir; Hadian, Mohammad

    2015-04-19

    Asymmetric information is one of the most important issues in insurance market which occurred due to inherent characteristics of one of the agents involved in insurance contracts; hence its management requires designing appropriate policies. This phenomenon can lead to the failure of insurance market via its two consequences, namely, adverse selection and moral hazard. This study was aimed to evaluate the status of asymmetric information in Iran's health insurance market with respect to the demand for outpatient services. This research is a cross sectional study conducted on households living in Iran. The data of the research was extracted from the information on household's budget survey collected by the Statistical Center of Iran in 2012. In this study, the Generalized Method of Moment model was used and the status of adverse selection and moral hazard was evaluated through calculating the latent health status of individuals in each insurance category. To analyze the data, Excel, Eviews and stata11 software were used. The estimation of parameters of the utility function of the demand for outpatient services (visit, medicine, and Para-clinical services) showed that households were more risk averse in the use of outpatient care than other goods and services. After estimating the health status of households based on their health insurance categories, the results showed that rural-insured people had the best health status and people with supplementary insurance had the worst health status. In addition, the comparison of the conditional distribution of latent health status approved the phenomenon of adverse selection in all insurance groups, with the exception of rural insurance. Moreover, calculation of the elasticity of medical expenses to reimbursement rate confirmed the existence of moral hazard phenomenon. Due to the existence of the phenomena of adverse selection and moral hazard in most of health insurances categories, policymakers need to adjust contracts so

  11. Occupational health hazards related to informal recycling of E-waste in India: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayapradha Annamalai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The innovation in science and technology coupled with the change in lifestyle of an individual has made an incredible change in the electronic industry show casing an assorted range of new products every day to the world. India too has been impacted by this digital revolution where consumption of electronics goods grows at a rapid rate producing a large amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment. This substantial generation of electronic waste referred to as e-waste accompanied with the lack of stringent environmental laws and regulations for handling the hazardous e-waste has resulted in the cropping of number of informal sectors. Over 95% of the e-waste is treated and processed in the majority of urban slums of the country, where untrained workers carry out the dangerous procedures without personal protective equipment, which are detrimental not only to their health but also to the environment. This paper focuses on the occupational health hazards due to the informal recycling of e-waste and then proceeds to show the safe disposal methods for handling the large quantities of e-waste generated in this electronic era and thus finds a sustainable solution for the formal processing of e-waste.

  12. Occupational health hazards related to informal recycling of E-waste in India: An overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annamalai, Jayapradha

    2015-01-01

    The innovation in science and technology coupled with the change in lifestyle of an individual has made an incredible change in the electronic industry show casing an assorted range of new products every day to the world. India too has been impacted by this digital revolution where consumption of electronics goods grows at a rapid rate producing a large amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment. This substantial generation of electronic waste referred to as e-waste accompanied with the lack of stringent environmental laws and regulations for handling the hazardous e-waste has resulted in the cropping of number of informal sectors. Over 95% of the e-waste is treated and processed in the majority of urban slums of the country, where untrained workers carry out the dangerous procedures without personal protective equipment, which are detrimental not only to their health but also to the environment. This paper focuses on the occupational health hazards due to the informal recycling of e-waste and then proceeds to show the safe disposal methods for handling the large quantities of e-waste generated in this electronic era and thus finds a sustainable solution for the formal processing of e-waste.

  13. Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

    2004-10-01

    Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

  14. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  15. The use of social media and mobile device applications to disseminate natural hazard information by Natural Resources Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, A. L.; Ulmi, M.; Majewski, C.; Hayek, K.; Edwards, W.; McCormack, D. A.; Cole, R. T.; de Paor, D. R.

    2011-12-01

    Public expectation of near-instant and reliable information is constantly rising. Such expectation puts increasing demands on organizations charged with providing the public with information on hazard events in near-real-time, while ensuring quality and accuracy of content. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) has responded by augmenting existing methods for earthquake information distribution with new and varied methods for relaying natural hazards information. We profile tools now employed operationally by NRCan to distribute earthquake information to emergency measures organizations, news media and the public. Also presented will be an example of a smart-'phone application which includes several tools for natural hazard preparedness and response, supplemented with automated real-time alerts.

  16. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: a natural laboratory for studying basaltic volcanism: Chapter 1 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Brantley, Steven R.; Neal, Christina A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe.

  17. Risk-based personal emergency response plan under hazardous gas leakage: Optimal information dissemination and regional evacuation in metropolises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, N.; Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Duarte, M.

    2017-05-01

    Knowledge on the characteristics of regional evacuation based on optimal information dissemination in hazardous gas leakage in metropolises plays a critical role. We established a risk analysis model for residents combining optimal emergency information dissemination and evacuation simulation in order to guide residents to make appropriate personal emergency response plan in hazardous gas leakage. The model was developed considering eight influencing factors, type and flow rate of hazardous gas, location of leakage source, wind speed and direction, information acquirement time, leakage duration, state of window (open/closed), and personal inhalation. Using Beijing as a case study, we calculated the risk of all grids and people and also obtained the three-dimensional special risk distribution. Through the microcosmic personal evacuation simulation in different condition, detailed data were obtained to analyze personal decision-making. We found that residents who stay near to the leakage source had better stay at home because of high concentration of hazardous leakage on their evacuation route. Instead of evacuation, staying at home and adopting optimal stay plan is very efficient if residents can receive the emergency information before the hazardous gas totally dispersed. For people who lived far from leakage source, evacuation is usually a good choice because they have longer time to avoid high-concentration hazardous gas.

  18. The significance of SAR remote sensing in volcano-geology for hazard and resource potential mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saepuloh, Asep; Bakker, Erwin; Suminar, Wulan

    2017-07-01

    Geological mapping at volcanic terrain is crucial for providing accurate information related to the distribution of volcanic products and volcano-related structures. The volcano-geology map is basis information, not only for hazard mitigation related to volcanic activity, but also for resource exploration as well as scientific purposes. Therefore, the accurate detection and observation of volcanic products and their genetics are necessary for volcano-geology mapping. The classical problem at Torrid Zone such as cloud, dense vegetation, heavy weathering, and erosion usually hamper the detection and observation of volcanic products and their structures. Moreover, the stratigraphic of volcanic products generally follows paleo-topography which was buried by the products. Overcoming the problem, we exploited the applicability of remotely sensed data to provide the great assistance for field based observations at volcanic field in Indonesia. The Geomorphologic and Structural Features (GSF) of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are the selected parameters to define the distribution of the volcanic products. We explained about the significant of SAR identification to detect and interpret volcano-geology parameters such as eruption centers, volcanic products, depositional mechanisms, and volcanic structures especially at complex of volcanoes. The fall and flowing mechanisms controlled the depositional process were also analyzed to obtain the genetic of volcanic products. For young volcanoes, the quantitative techniques based on SAR surface roughness and polarized signatures are effective to identify volcanic formations and their sources. However, for old volcanoes the visual analyses of GSF is superior to identify the volcanic units and structures. We selected two volcanic complexes at Mts. Guntur and Malabar in West Java (Indonesia) presenting the young and old volcanic field characteristics under Torrid Zone condition.

  19. International Database of Volcanic Ash Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, K.; Cameron, C.; Wilson, T. M.; Jenkins, S.; Brown, S.; Leonard, G.; Deligne, N.; Stewart, C.

    2015-12-01

    Volcanic ash creates extensive impacts to people and property, yet we lack a global ash impacts catalog to organize, distribute, and archive this important information. Critical impact information is often stored in ephemeral news articles or other isolated resources, which cannot be queried or located easily. A global ash impacts database would improve 1) warning messages, 2) public and lifeline emergency preparation, and 3) eruption response and recovery. Ashfall can have varying consequences, such as disabling critical lifeline infrastructure (e.g. electrical generation and transmission, water supplies, telecommunications, aircraft and airports) or merely creating limited and expensive inconvenience to local communities. Impacts to the aviation sector can be a far-reaching global issue. The international volcanic ash impacts community formed a committee to develop a database to catalog the impacts of volcanic ash. We identify three user populations for this database: 1) research teams, who would use the database to assist in systematic collection, recording, and storage of ash impact data, and to prioritize impact assessment trips and lab experiments 2) volcanic risk assessment scientists who rely on impact data for assessments (especially vulnerability/fragility assessments); a complete dataset would have utility for global, regional, national and local scale risk assessments, and 3) citizen science volcanic hazard reporting. Publication of an international ash impacts database will encourage standardization and development of best practices for collecting and reporting impact information. Data entered will be highly categorized, searchable, and open source. Systematic cataloging of impact data will allow users to query the data and extract valuable information to aid in the development of improved emergency preparedness, response and recovery measures.

  20. [International Chemical Safety Cards: information source on hazards caused by chemical substances].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakulska, Daria; Czerczak, Sławomir

    2007-01-01

    International Chemical Safety Cards (ICSC) are produced by the International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) in collaboration with the European Commission and various IPCS-participating institutions in different countries. ICSCs disseminate essential information on chemicals to promote their safe production, transport and use. Application of standard terminology along with relevant criteria facilitates the comparison of risk related to different chemicals, which makes the cards a successful hazard-communication tool. Translation of the cards into various languages all over the world reflects the range of their growing use. A multi-stage compilation of information contained in ICSCs, based on the most up-to-date world literature and professional databases, assures its reliability. Their concise form makes them easy in everyday use as a source of information on chemical safety. The range of information contained in ICSCs corresponds to that provided by Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDS), however, the former are more concise and simpler. Although ICSCs have no legal status they may complement a 16-point MSDSs and help in the implementation of labeling and classification of chemicals according to the Globally Harmonized System.

  1. The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Wilkinson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

  2. Development of models to inform a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment for Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, Tom A.; Reeves, Helen J.; Dashwood, Claire; Pennington, Catherine; Freeborough, Katy; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Uhlemann, Sebastian S.; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Wilkinson, Paul B.

    2015-04-01

    The British Geological Survey (BGS) provides landside hazard information as part of its strategic role. This includes, among others, the issuing of a national Daily Landslide Hazard Assessment (DLHA) one of the hazards assessments issued by the Natural Hazard Partnership. A range of tools are currently under development to further develop reliability and enhance the granularity of these assessments. The BGS has three datasets that support and underpin this research; the National Landslide Database (NLD), the DiGMap mass movement layer and GeoSure. The NLD holds more than 16,500 records of landslides across Great Britain (GB) stored in an Oracle database that is accessible through an ESRI ® ArcGIS interface. DiGMap comprises a digital map layer with outlines of all landslides recorded by field geologists. GeoSure is a BGS product that assesses the potential for ground movement across GB in six layers, one of which is landslide potential. The GeoSure landslide potential layer incorporates information on conditioning factors, such as local geology, geotechnical parameters and topography. These are combined within a GIS to derive a map showing where a landslide may occur under favourable conditions (e.g. persistent wet conditions due to adverse weather). Different types of terrain will be affected by different modes of landsliding and a series of hierarchical landslide domains have been established capturing the spatial consistency of slope deformation response. Each landslide domain represents an area of similar physiographic and geological characteristics which has shaped the style of landsliding (recognising relic, active and potentially active processes). In turn, this enables development of regional thresholds that are relevant to characteristic landslides in these domains. The wet period from summer 2012 into early spring 2013 resulted in a surge of recorded landslides, particularly in SW England and S Wales. Approximations of regional effective precipitation

  3. Frequency of damage by external explosion hazards based on geographical information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, Guenter [Risa Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin-Charlottenburg (Germany); Camarinopoulos, Alexis; Theodora, Karali [Environment Reliability and Risk Analysis (ERRA), Athens (Greece); Camarinopoulos, Leonidas [Piraeus Univ. (Greece); Schubert, B. [VENE, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-05-15

    External explosions can significantly contribute to risk of damage for industrial plants. External explosions may origin from other plants in the neighbourhood, which store and operate with explosive substances, or from transport of such substances on road, rail, or water. If deflagration is involved, ignition will not necessarily occur at the place of the accident, but a cloud of a combustible gas-air mixture may develop, which will ignite at some distance depending on wind velocity. A probabilistic model has been developed to calculate frequencies of damage based on numerical integration or on Monte Carlo simulation. Geographical information systems provide map material for sites, roads, rail and rivers on a computer. Data has been collected and applied for a nuclear power plant in Germany as an example. The method, however, can be used for any type of plant subject to external explosion hazards. (orig.)

  4. Real time explosive hazard information sensing, processing, and communication for autonomous operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Versteeg, Roelof J; Few, Douglas A; Kinoshita, Robert A; Johnson, Doug; Linda, Ondrej

    2015-02-24

    Methods, computer readable media, and apparatuses provide robotic explosive hazard detection. A robot intelligence kernel (RIK) includes a dynamic autonomy structure with two or more autonomy levels between operator intervention and robot initiative A mine sensor and processing module (ESPM) operating separately from the RIK perceives environmental variables indicative of a mine using subsurface perceptors. The ESPM processes mine information to determine a likelihood of a presence of a mine. A robot can autonomously modify behavior responsive to an indication of a detected mine. The behavior is modified between detection of mines, detailed scanning and characterization of the mine, developing mine indication parameters, and resuming detection. Real time messages are passed between the RIK and the ESPM. A combination of ESPM bound messages and RIK bound messages cause the robot platform to switch between modes including a calibration mode, the mine detection mode, and the mine characterization mode.

  5. Real time explosive hazard information sensing, processing, and communication for autonomous operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Versteeg, Roelof J.; Few, Douglas A.; Kinoshita, Robert A.; Johnson, Douglas; Linda, Ondrej

    2015-12-15

    Methods, computer readable media, and apparatuses provide robotic explosive hazard detection. A robot intelligence kernel (RIK) includes a dynamic autonomy structure with two or more autonomy levels between operator intervention and robot initiative A mine sensor and processing module (ESPM) operating separately from the RIK perceives environmental variables indicative of a mine using subsurface perceptors. The ESPM processes mine information to determine a likelihood of a presence of a mine. A robot can autonomously modify behavior responsive to an indication of a detected mine. The behavior is modified between detection of mines, detailed scanning and characterization of the mine, developing mine indication parameters, and resuming detection. Real time messages are passed between the RIK and the ESPM. A combination of ESPM bound messages and RIK bound messages cause the robot platform to switch between modes including a calibration mode, the mine detection mode, and the mine characterization mode.

  6. 41 CFR 102-75.130 - If hazardous substance activity took place on the property, what specific information must an...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... activity took place on the property, what specific information must an agency include in the title report... substance activity took place on the property, the reporting agency must include information on the type and... Utilization of Excess Real Property Title Report § 102-75.130 If hazardous substance activity took place...

  7. Tourism, Volcanic Eruptions, and Information: Lessons for Crisis Management in National Parks, Costa Rica, 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aguirre, Juan Antonio

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcán Poás National Park, located in the central valley of Costa Rica, is the most visited and most economically important park in the country. Recently, a series of eruptions caused the park admin-istration to severely limit visitation for a period of approximately 3 weeks. This study examines the economic impact of this policy on the surrounding communities of Poasito and Fraijanes, which are reliant on tourists who stop in the towns on their way to or from the park. The social impact, as seen in the failure of park-community information sharing during this period of disaster management, is also investigated. Improving disaster management and planning both within and outside the park is found to be closely tied to improving the poor communication and lack of multi-stakeholder participation in park-community affairs. Both parties are responsible for improving the situation. To decrease vulnerability to physical disasters and their accompanying economic crises, the community needs to organize to illicit information and to diversify the type of tourism on which they are dependant. PNVP needs to initiate capacity-building activities in the community and include community information needs in their disaster management strategy.

  8. The United States national volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albersheim, Steven; Guffanti, Marianne

    2009-01-01

    Volcanic-ash clouds are a known hazard to aviation, requiring that aircraft be warned away from ash-contaminated airspace. The exposure of aviation to potential hazards from volcanoes in the United States is significant. In support of existing interagency operations to detect and track volcanic-ash clouds, the United States has prepared a National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation to strengthen the warning process in its airspace. The US National Plan documents the responsibilities, communication protocols, and prescribed hazard messages of the Federal Aviation Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Geological Survey, and Air Force Weather Agency. The plan introduces a new message format, a Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation, to provide clear, concise information about volcanic activity, including precursory unrest, to air-traffic controllers (for use in Notices to Airmen) and other aviation users. The plan is online at http://www.ofcm.gov/p35-nvaopa/pdf/FCM-P35-2007-NVAOPA.pdf. While the plan provides general operational practices, it remains the responsibility of the federal agencies involved to implement the described procedures through orders, directives, etc. Since the plan mirrors global guidelines of the International Civil Aviation Organization, it also provides an example that could be adapted by other countries.

  9. Volcanic eruptions observed with infrasound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jeffrey B.; Aster, Richard C.; Kyle, Philip R.

    2004-07-01

    Infrasonic airwaves produced by active volcanoes provide valuable insight into the eruption dynamics. Because the infrasonic pressure field may be directly associated with the flux rate of gas released at a volcanic vent, infrasound also enhances the efficacy of volcanic hazard monitoring and continuous studies of conduit processes. Here we present new results from Erebus, Fuego, and Villarrica volcanoes highlighting uses of infrasound for constraining quantitative eruption parameters, such as eruption duration, source mechanism, and explosive gas flux.

  10. How natural hazards influence Internet searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Adelina; Martí, Joan; Villaseñor, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    Effective dissemination of correct and easy-to-understand scientific information is one of the most imperative tasks of natural hazard assessment and risk management, being the media and the population the two fundamental groups of receptors. It has been observed how during the occurrence of hazardous natural phenomena, media and population desperately seek for information in all possible channels. Traditionally, these have been the radio and television, but over the past decades, the Internet has also become a significant information resource. Nevertheless, how the Internet search behavior changes during the occurrence of natural phenomena of significant societal impact (i.e. involving important human and/or economic losses) has never been analyzed so far. Focusing mainly on volcanism, we use here for the first time Internet search data provided by Google Trends to examine the search patterns of volcanology-related terms and how these may change during unrest periods or volcanic crises. Results obtained allow us to evaluate, at a global and local scale, the interest of society towards volcanological phenomena and its potential background knowledge of Earth Sciences. We show here how Internet search data turns to be a promising tool for the global and local monitoring of awareness and education background of society on natural phenomena in general, and volcanic hazards in particular.

  11. Inventing the Right to Know: Herbert Abrams's Efforts to Democratize Access to Workplace Health Hazard Information in the 1950s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derickson, Alan

    2016-02-01

    In the 1980s, the right-to-know movement won American workers unprecedented access to information about the health hazards they faced on the job. The precursors and origins of these initiatives to extend workplace democracy remain quite obscure. This study brings to light the efforts of one of the early proponents of wider dissemination of information related to hazard recognition and control. Through his work as a state public health official and as an advisor to organized labor in the 1950s, Herbert Abrams was a pioneer in advocating not only broader sharing of knowledge but also more expansive rights of workers and their organizations to act on that knowledge.

  12. The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Escuder-Bueno, I.; Altarejos-García, L.; Serrano-Lombillo, A.

    2014-02-01

    This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach - combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009-2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

  13. Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

    2015-04-01

    Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

  14. The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. T. Castillo-Rodríguez

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts and existing methods on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Traditionally, flood risk analyses have focused on specific site studies and qualitative or semi-quantitative approaches. However, in this context, a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards was still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach – combining pluvial, river flooding and dam failure, as applied to a case study: a urban area located downstream a dam under construction. Such methodology represents an upgrade of the methodological piece developed within the SUFRI project. This article shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved on decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

  15. Communicating Climate Hazards Information in the Urban Community to the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCalla, M. R.

    2004-12-01

    Climate simulations are predicting an overall warming of the atmosphere due to greenhouse gases. For example, CO2 allows sunlight to reach the earth and warm its surface, but it prevents a portion of this surface heat from escaping the atmosphere. This greenhouse effect can result in higher mean atmospheric temperatures near the Earth's surface. If these predictions are correct, changes in temperature can increase the power demand to cool urban building structures (homes, schools, offices, storage facilities, etc.). Similarly, the regional and seasonal temperature fluctuations due to climate oscillations (El Nino, for example) may also increase the power demand for heating and cooling. A warming climate (or cooling climate, for that matter) can also affect the available water for drinking, irrigation, and generating power, all of which impact the viability and sustainability of the urban community. Additionally, urban areas are expanding. Consequently, the distance between city and wildlands is decreasing. The wildland-urban interface often stresses biodiversity, forestation, and the urban area's ability to respond adequately to such climate-induced hazards as forest fires, flooding, and coastal erosion. Thus climate has an impact on humans and vice versa. How can scientists communicate the impact of climate on the urban community? What is the best way to communicate the information so that the public can (1) be informed and (2) make informed decisions? How well is the nexus between climate science and impacts on and benefits to decision makers understood? What is the best way to fully exploit that connection so that the public can develop intervention measures to support the urban community's response to climatic impacts? The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the express purpose of ensuring the effective use of federal

  16. Coastal Hazards Maps: Actionable Information for Communities Facing Sea-Level Rise (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibeaut, J. C.; Barraza, E.

    2010-12-01

    Barrier islands along the U.S. Gulf coast remain under increasing pressure from development. This development and redevelopment is occurring despite recent hurricanes, ongoing erosion, and sea-level rise. To lessen the impacts of these hazards, local governments need information in a form that is useful for informing the public, making policy, and enforcing development rules. We recently completed the Galveston Island Geohazards Map for the city of Galveston, Texas and are currently developing maps for the Mustang and South Padre Island communities. The maps show areas that vary in their susceptibility to, and function for, mitigating the effects of geological processes, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion and storm-surge flooding and washover. The current wetlands, beaches and dunes are mapped as having the highest geohazard potential both in terms of their exposure to hazardous conditions and their mitigating effects of those hazards for the rest of the island. These existing “critical environments” are generally protected under existing regulations. Importantly, however, the mapping recognizes that sea-level rise and shoreline retreat are changing the island; therefore, 60-year model projections of the effects of these changes are incorporated into the map. The areas that we project will become wetlands, beaches and dunes in the next 60 years are not protected. These areas are the most difficult to deal with from a policy point of view, yet we must address what happens there if real progress is to be made in how we live with sea-level rise. The geohazards maps draw on decades of geological knowledge of how barrier islands behave and put it in a form that is intuitive to the public and directly useful to planners. Some of the “messages” in the map include: leave salt marshes alone and give them room to migrate inland as sea level rises; set back and move development away from the shoreline to provide space for beaches and protective dunes

  17. Google Mapplets for Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefner, S. A.; Venezky, D. Y.

    2007-12-01

    The USGS Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Programs monitor, assess, and issue warnings of natural hazards. Users can access our hazards information through our web pages, RSS feeds, and now through USGS Mapplets. Mapplets allow third party data layers to be added on top of Google Maps (http://maps.google.com - My Maps tab). Mapplets are created by parsing a GeoRSS feed, which involves searching through an XML file for location data and plotting the associated information on a map. The new Mapplets allow users to view both real-time earthquakes and current volcanic activity on the same map for the first time. In addition, the USGS Mapplets have been added to Google's extensive collection of Mapplets, allowing users to add the types of information they want to see on their own customized maps. The Earthquake Mapplet plots the past week of earthquakes around the world, showing the location, time and magnitude. The Volcano Mapplet displays the latest U.S. volcano updates, including the current level of both ground-based and aviation hazards. Join us to discuss how Mapplets are made and how they can be used to create your own customized map.

  18. Kaohsiung Municipal Government: Feasibility study for Kaohsiung hazardous waste management plan. Executive summary. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-08-01

    The document is the Executive Summary of a report resulting from a feasibility study conducted for the Republic of China. The objective of the study was to: survey hazardous industrial wastes within Kaohsiung Municipality, analyze the feasibility for planning a hazardous waste treatment and disposal system, develop recommendations for waste minimization and transportation, and identify possible methods of private sector operation.

  19. Kaohsiung Municipal Government: Feasibility study for Kaohsiung Hazardous Waste Management Plan. English report. Export trade information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-08-01

    The report is the result of a feasibility study conducted for the Republic of China. The primary objectives of the study was to: survey hazardous industrial wastes within Kaohsiung Municipality, analyze the feasibility for the planning of a centralized hazardous waste treatment and disposal system, develop recommendations for waste minimization and transportation, and to identify possible methods of private sector operation.

  20. United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

    2017-07-25

    In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

  1. Digital geomorphological information for alpine hazard studies using laser altimetry data and GIS: With an example from Vorarlberg, Austria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seijmonsbergen, H.; Mikoś, M.; Hübel, J.; Koboltschnig, G.

    2008-01-01

    Detailed geomorphological information has proven beneficial for the spatial recognition and delineation of natural hazards such as rock fall, slides and debris flows in alpine ecosystems. New digital (semi-)automated mapping and availability of LiDAR altimetry data may improve the accessibility and

  2. Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity Mapping for Landslides Risk Analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, D. A. P.; Innaqa, S.; Safrilah

    2017-06-01

    This research analyzed the levels of disaster risk in the Citeureup sub-District, Bogor Regency, West Java, based on its potential hazard, vulnerability and capacity, using map to represent the results, then Miles and Huberman analytical techniques was used to analyze the qualitative interviews. The analysis conducted in this study is based on the concept of disaster risk by Wisner. The result shows that the Citeureup sub-District has medium-low risk of landslides. Of the 14 villages, three villages have a moderate risk level, namely Hambalang, Tajur, and Tangkil, or 49.58% of the total land area. Eleven villages have a low level of risk, namely Pasir Mukti, Sanja, Tarikolot, Gunung Sari, Puspasari, East Karang Asem, Citeureup, Leuwinutug, Sukahati, West Karang Asem West and Puspanegara, or 48.68% of the total land area, for high-risk areas only around 1.74%, which is part of Hambalang village. The analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) prove that areas with a high risk potential does not necessarily have a high level of risk. The capacity of the community plays an important role to minimize the risk of a region. Disaster risk reduction strategy is done by creating a safe condition, which intensified the movement of disaster risk reduction.

  3. Bring Hidden Hazards to the Publics Attention, Understanding, and Informed Decision by Coordinating Federal Education Initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.; Wei, M.; Jadin, J.

    2010-12-01

    In the 2010 National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices’ report on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change concluded; “Education and communication are among the most powerful tools the nation has to bring hidden hazards to public attention, understanding, and action.” They conclude that the “current and future students, the broader public, and policymakers need to understand the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to climate change, develop scientific thinking and problem-solving skills, and improve their ability to make informed decisions.” The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) works to integrate the climate related activities of these different agencies, with oversight from the Office of Science and Technology Policy and other White House offices. USGCRP’s focus is now on evaluating optimal strategies for addressing climate change risks, improving coordination among the Federal agencies, engaging stakeholders (including national policy leaders and local resource managers) on the research results to all and improving public understanding and decision-making related to global change. Implicit to these activities is the need to educate the public about the science of climate change and its consequences, as well as coordinate Federal investments related to climate change education. In a broader sense, the implementation of the proposed Interagency Taskforce on Climate Change Communication and Education will serve the evolving USGCRP mandates around cross-cutting, thematic elements, as recommended by the National Research Council (NRC, 2009) and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research Plan: An update to the 2003 Strategic Plan (USGCRP, 2008), to help the Federal government “capitalize on its investments and aid in the development of increased climate literacy for the Nation.” This session will update the participants on the work to date and the near term coordinated plans

  4. Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

  5. Conception of a method for the creation of volcanic risk index maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bion, P.; Van Wyk de Vries, B.; Valentine, G.

    2012-04-01

    Risk index maps are a variant of risk maps, having the advantage of containing unique kinds of information - levels of risk spatially represented - and can therefore be a more effective communication tool than traditional risk maps. Nevertheless, despite their apparent simplicity, their achievement is the result of a complex risk analysis, requiring the consideration of multidisciplinary indicators, expressing different parameters of the physical and human dimensions of the environment and their interactions. The risk index is obtained in three main stages: the definition of hazard and vulnerability indicators, the transformation of the indicators into subindices through mathematical processes (formulation, standardization, weighting), and the combination of the subindices into a final index. As of now, only few attempts of risk quantification have been done, related to landslide, flood or seismic hazards, and those linked to volcanic hazards are very incomplete because of the specificities and complexities of these kinds of events and their effects. Volcanic hazards have the particularity of being of different types, moreover all events can combine together or be combined with other external events (e.g. meteorological), and they can reach and therefore affect extensive areas by different phenomena. The methodology developed here assesses risk levels in regions potentially impacted by volcanic hazards. It incorporates volcanic hazard specificities and nuances of "vulnerability" by integrating the diversity of the environmental components. It analyses the natural and human strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which are located within the areas potentially "at risk". Consequently, it considers negative but also positive indicators (respectively aggravating and improving the potential consequences), which can be internal but also external to the volcanic hazards. The approach also considers a temporal variability of the events and their direct or

  6. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  7. Proposed Risk-Informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology for Complying with DOE Order 420.1C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kammerer, Annie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities must comply with DOE Order 420.1C Facility Safety, which requires that all such facilities review their natural phenomena hazards (NPH) assessments no less frequently than every ten years. The Order points the reader to Standard DOE-STD-1020-2012. In addition to providing a discussion of the applicable evaluation criteria, the Standard references other documents, including ANSI/ANS-2.29-2008 and NUREG-2117. These documents provide supporting criteria and approaches for evaluating the need to update an existing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). All of the documents are consistent at a high level regarding the general conceptual criteria that should be considered. However, none of the documents provides step-by-step detailed guidance on the required or recommended approach for evaluating the significance of new information and determining whether or not an existing PSHA should be updated. Further, all of the conceptual approaches and criteria given in these documents deal with changes that may have occurred in the knowledge base that might impact the inputs to the PSHA, the calculated hazard itself, or the technical basis for the hazard inputs. Given that the DOE Order is aimed at achieving and assuring the safety of nuclear facilities—which is a function not only of the level of the seismic hazard but also the capacity of the facility to withstand vibratory ground motions—the inclusion of risk information in the evaluation process would appear to be both prudent and in line with the objectives of the Order. The purpose of this white paper is to describe a risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA consistent with the DOE Order. While the development of the proposed methodology was undertaken as a result of assessments for specific SDC-3 facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and it is expected that the application at INL will provide a demonstration of the

  8. NASA Hazard Analysis Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews The NASA Hazard Analysis process. The contents include: 1) Significant Incidents and Close Calls in Human Spaceflight; 2) Subsystem Safety Engineering Through the Project Life Cycle; 3) The Risk Informed Design Process; 4) Types of NASA Hazard Analysis; 5) Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA); 6) Hazard Analysis Process; 7) Identify Hazardous Conditions; 8) Consider All Interfaces; 9) Work a Preliminary Hazard List; 10) NASA Generic Hazards List; and 11) Final Thoughts

  9. Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Jr., Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

  10. Oregon Hazard Explorer for Lifelines Program (OHELP): A web-based geographic information system tool for assessing potential Cascadia earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharifi Mood, M.; Olsen, M. J.; Gillins, D. T.; Javadnejad, F.

    2016-12-01

    The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) has the ability to generate earthquake as powerful as 9 moment magnitude creating great amount of damage to structures and facilities in Oregon. Series of deterministic earthquake analysis are performed for M9.0, M8.7, M8.4 and M8.1 presenting persistent, long lasting shaking associated with other geological threats such as ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction-induced ground deformations, fault rupture vertical displacement, tsunamis, etc. These ground deformation endangers urban structures, foundations, bridges, roadways, pipelines and other lifelines. Lifeline providers in Oregon, including private and public practices responsible for transportation, electric and gas utilities, water and wastewater, fuel, airports, and harbors face an aging infrastructure that was built prior to a full understanding of this extreme seismic risk. As recently experienced in Chile and Japan, a three to five minutes long earthquake scenario, expected in Oregon, necessities a whole different method of risk mitigation for these major lifelines than those created for shorter shakings from crustal earthquakes. A web-based geographic information system tool is developed to fully assess the potential hazard from the multiple threats impending from Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes in the region. The purpose of this website is to provide easy access to the latest and best available hazard information over the web, including work completed in the recent Oregon Resilience Plan (ORP) (OSSPAC, 2013) and other work completed by the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As a result, this tool is designated for engineers, planners, geologists, and others who need this information to help make appropriate decisions despite the fact that this web-GIS tool only needs minimal knowledge of GIS to work with.

  11. Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Geological Hazards (DRAFT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.

    1994-06-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed Regis. 5925638) withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 575433) of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications and open-file reports. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift, and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis). First, overviews of volcanic and earthquake activity, and details of offshore geologic hazards is provided for the Hawaiian Islands. Then, a more detailed discussion of onshore geologic hazards is presented with special emphasis on the southern third of Hawaii and the east rift

  12. Methods and means of information-analytical assessment of asteroid and comet hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulagin, V. P.; Shustov, B. M.; Kuznetsov, Yu. M.; Kaperko, A. F.; Bober, S. A.; Obolyaeva, N. M.; Naroenkov, S. A.; Shuvalov, V. V.; Svettsov, V. V.; Popova, O. P.; Glazachev, D. O.

    2016-12-01

    This paper contains a description of methods and software tools for creation of the informationanalytical system for monitoring hazardous space objects. The paper presents the structure of the system and a description of its functional components that enable rapid assessment of the NEO hazard and forecast of the effects of dangerous celestial bodies colliding with the Earth. The results of the system's operation regarding the modeling the motion of space objects are also included in this work.

  13. Proceedings of Conference V: communicating earthquake hazard reduction information: convened under auspices of National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program 22-24 May, 1978

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1978-01-01

    Under the Earthquake Hazard Reduction Act of 1977, the federal government is significantly increasing its effort "to reduce the risk of life and property from future earthquakes in the United States through the establishment and maintenance of an effective earthquake hazards reduction program". This prgoram is sponsored primarily by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Science Foundation and includes research by geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, engineers, sociologists, educators, and public policy experts. In the USGS program, there is a strong emphsis on effective communication of the results of research to a wide community of decision makers and users. This action is the key to implementation at all levels in federal, state, and local government, in the private sector, and on an individual basis. The U.S. Geological Survey convened a workshop involving approximately 65 people on May 22-24, 1978 in Denver, Colorado, to examine the communication problem. The purpose of the workshop was to evaluate critically the information-flow process for a number of past experiences, including:

  14. Exploring Hawaiian Volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Okubo, Paul G.; Hon, Ken

    2013-02-01

    In 1912 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Thomas A. Jaggar Jr. on the island of Hawaii. Driven by the devastation he observed while investigating the volcanic disasters of 1902 at Montagne Pelée in the Caribbean, Jaggar conducted a worldwide search and decided that Hawai`i provided an excellent natural laboratory for systematic study of earthquake and volcano processes toward better understanding of seismic and volcanic hazards. In the 100 years since HVO's founding, surveillance and investigation of Hawaiian volcanoes have spurred advances in volcano and seismic monitoring techniques, extended scientists' understanding of eruptive activity and processes, and contributed to development of global theories about hot spots and mantle plumes.

  15. Exploring Hawaiian volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Okubo, Paul G.; Hon, Ken

    2013-01-01

    In 1912 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Thomas A. Jaggar Jr. on the island of Hawaii. Driven by the devastation he observed while investigating the volcanic disasters of 1902 at Montagne Pelée in the Caribbean, Jaggar conducted a worldwide search and decided that Hawai‘i provided an excellent natural laboratory for systematic study of earthquake and volcano processes toward better understanding of seismic and volcanic hazards. In the 100 years since HVO’s founding, surveillance and investigation of Hawaiian volcanoes have spurred advances in volcano and seismic monitoring techniques, extended scientists’ understanding of eruptive activity and processes, and contributed to development of global theories about hot spots and mantle plumes.

  16. Satellite-based detection of volcanic sulphur dioxide from recent eruptions in Central and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Loyola

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can emit large amounts of rock fragments and fine particles (ash into the atmosphere, as well as several gases, including sulphur dioxide (SO2. These ejecta and emissions are a major natural hazard, not only to the local population, but also to the infrastructure in the vicinity of volcanoes and to aviation. Here, we describe a methodology to retrieve quantitative information about volcanic SO2 plumes from satellite-borne measurements in the UV/Visible spectral range. The combination of a satellite-based SO2 detection scheme and a state-of-the-art 3D trajectory model enables us to confirm the volcanic origin of trace gas signals and to estimate the plume height and the effective emission height. This is demonstrated by case-studies for four selected volcanic eruptions in South and Central America, using the GOME, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 instruments.

  17. Timing, origin and emplacement dynamics of mass flows offshore of SE Montserrat in the last 110 ka: implications for landslide and tsunami hazards, eruption history, and volcanic island evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Trofimovs, J.; Talling, P. J.; Fisher, J. K.; Sparks, R.S.J.; Watt, S.F.L.; Hart, M. B.; Smart, C.; Le Friant, A.; Cassidy, M.; Moreton, S.G.; Leng, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    Mass flows on volcanic islands generated by volcanic lava dome collapse and by larger volume flank collapse, can be highly dangerous locally and may generate tsunamis that threaten a wider area. It is therefore important to understand their frequency, emplacement dynamics and relationship to volcanic eruption cycles. The best record of mass flow on volcanic islands may be found offshore, where most material is deposited, and where intervening hemipelagic sediment aids dating. Here we analyse ...

  18. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  19. On the predictive information criteria for model determination in seismic hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varini, Elisa; Rotondi, Renata

    2016-04-01

    estimate, but it is hardly applicable to data which are not independent given parameters (Watanabe, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 2010). A solution is given by Ando and Tsay criterion where the joint density may be decomposed into the product of the conditional densities (Ando and Tsay, Int. J. Forecast., 2010). The above mentioned criteria are global summary measures of model performance, but more detailed analysis could be required to discover the reasons for poor global performance. In this latter case, a retrospective predictive analysis is performed on each individual observation. In this study we performed the Bayesian analysis of Italian data sets by four versions of a long-term hazard model known as the stress release model (Vere-Jones, J. Physics Earth, 1978; Bebbington and Harte, Geophys. J. Int., 2003; Varini and Rotondi, Environ. Ecol. Stat., 2015). Then we illustrate the results on their performance evaluated by Bayes Factor, predictive information criteria and retrospective predictive analysis.

  20. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  1. Relationship between earthquake and volcanic eruption inferred from historical records

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈洪洲; 高峰; 吴雪娟; 孟宪森

    2004-01-01

    A large number of seismic records are discovered for the first time in the historical materials about Wudalianchi volcanic group eruption in 1720~1721, which provides us with abundant volcanic earthquake information. Based on the written records, the relationship between earthquake and volcanic eruption is discussed in the paper. Furthermore it is pointed that earthquake swarm is an important indication of volcanic eruption. Therefore, monitoring volcanic earthquakes is of great significance for forecasting volcanic eruption.

  2. Volcanism on Mars. Chapter 41

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimbelman, J. R.; Garry, W. B.; Bleacher, J. E.; Crown, D. A.

    2015-01-01

    Spacecraft exploration has revealed abundant evidence that Mars possesses some of the most dramatic volcanic landforms found anywhere within the solar system. How did a planet half the size of Earth produce volcanoes like Olympus Mons, which is several times the size of the largest volcanoes on Earth? This question is an example of the kinds of issues currently being investigated as part of the space-age scientific endeavor called "comparative planetology." This chapter summarizes the basic information currently known about volcanism on Mars. The volcanoes on Mars appear to be broadly similar in overall morphology (although, often quite different in scale) to volcanic features on Earth, which suggests that Martian eruptive processes are not significantly different from the volcanic styles and processes on Earth. Martian volcanoes are found on terrains of different age, and Martian volcanic rocks are estimated to comprise more than 50% of the Martian surface. This is in contrast to volcanism on smaller bodies such as Earth's Moon, where volcanic activity was mainly confined to the first half of lunar history (see "Volcanism on the Moon"). Comparative planetology supports the concept that volcanism is the primary mechanism for a planetary body to get rid of its internal heat; smaller bodies tend to lose their internal heat more rapidly than larger bodies (although, Jupiter's moon Io appears to contradict this trend; Io's intense volcanic activity is powered by unique gravitational tidal forces within the Jovian system; see "Volcanism on Io"), so that volcanic activity on Mars would be expected to differ considerably from that found on Earth and the Moon.

  3. Discovery of an active shallow submarine silicic volcano in the northern Izu-Bonin Arc: volcanic structure and potential hazards of Oomurodashi Volcano (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, K.; Ishizuka, O.; Nichols, A. R.; Hirahara, Y.; Carey, R.; McIntosh, I. M.; Masaki, Y.; Kondo, R.; Miyairi, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Oomurodashi is a bathymetric high located ~20 km south of Izu-Oshima, an active volcanic island of the northern Izu-Bonin Arc. Using the 200 m bathymetric contour to define its summit dimensions, the diameter of Oomurodashi is ~20 km. Oomurodashi has been regarded as inactive, largely because it has a vast flat-topped summit at 100 - 150 meters below sea level (mbsl). During cruise NT07-15 of R/V Natsushima in 2007, we conducted a dive survey in a small crater, Oomuro Hole, located in the center of the flat-topped summit, using the remotely-operated vehicle (ROV) Hyper-Dolphin. The only heat flow measurement conducted on the floor of Oomuro Hole during the dive recorded an extremely high value of 4,200 mW/m2. Furthermore, ROV observations revealed that the southwestern wall of Oomuro Hole consists of fresh rhyolitic lavas. These findings suggest that Oomurodashi is in fact an active silicic submarine volcano. To confirm this hypothesis, we conducted detailed geological and geophysical ROV Hyper-Dolphin (cruise NT12-19). In addition to further ROV surveys, we carried out single-channel seismic (SCS) surveys across Oomurodashi in order to examine the shallow structures beneath the current edifice. The ROV surveys revealed numerous active hydrothermal vents on the floor of Oomuro Hole, at ~200 mbsl, with maximum water temperature measured at the hydrothermal vents reaching 194°C. We also conducted a much more detailed set of heat flow measurements across the floor of Oomuro Hole, detecting very high heat flows of up to 29,000 mW/m2. ROV observations revealed that the area surrounding Oomuro Hole on the flat-topped summit of Oomurodashi is covered by extensive fresh rhyolitic lava and pumice clasts with minimum biogenetic or manganese cover, suggesting recent eruption(s). These findings strongly indicate that Oomurodashi is an active silicic submarine volcano, with recent eruption(s) occurring from Oomuro Hole. Since the summit of Oomurodashi is in shallow water, it

  4. Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Geological hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.; Reed, R.M.

    1995-03-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent US Geological Survey (USGS) publications and USGS open-file reports related to this project. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis).

  5. 16 CFR 1115.12 - Information which should be reported; evaluating substantial product hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... in accordance with § 1115.11, about product use, experience, performance, design, or manufacture... of the product, and the population group exposed to the product (e.g., children, elderly, handicapped...; evaluating substantial product hazard. 1115.12 Section 1115.12 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT...

  6. Develop information and training aids to assist all employees to recognize frictional ignition hazards

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oberholzer, JW

    1998-07-01

    Full Text Available This report describes the process followed in establishing training aids to make employees aware of the dangers of frictional hazards. The actual outputs of the project are training aids that will be used by trainers to transfer the knowledge...

  7. The A.D. 1835 eruption of Volcán Cosigüina, Nicaragua: A guide for assessing local volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, William E.; Gardner, Cynthia A.; Devoli, Graziella; Alvarez, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    The January 1835 eruption of Volcán Cosigüina in northwestern Nicaragua was one of the largest and most explosive in Central America since Spanish colonization. We report on the results of reconnaissance stratigraphic studies and laboratory work aimed at better defining the distribution and character of deposits emplaced by the eruption as a means of developing a preliminary hazards assessment for future eruptions. On the lower flanks of the volcano, a basal tephra-fall deposit comprises either ash and fine lithic lapilli or, locally, dacitic pumice. An overlying tephra-fall deposit forms an extensive blanket of brown to gray andesitic scoria that is 35–60 cm thick at 5–10 km from the summit-caldera rim, except southwest of the volcano, where it is considerably thinner. The scoria fall produced the most voluminous deposit of the eruption and underlies pyroclastic-surge and -flow deposits that chiefly comprise gray andesitic scoria. In northern and southeastern sectors of the volcano, these flowage deposits form broad fans and valley fills that locally reach the Gulf of Fonseca. An arcuate ridge 2 km west of the caldera rim and a low ridge east of the caldera deflected pyroclastic flows northward and southeastward. Pyroclastic flows did not reach the lower west and southwest flanks, which instead received thick, fine-grained, accretionary-lapilli–rich ashfall deposits that probably derived chiefly from ash clouds elutriated from pyroclastic flows. We estimate the total bulk volume of erupted deposits to be ∼6 km3. Following the eruption, lahars inundated large portions of the lower flanks, and erosion of deposits and creation of new channels triggered rapid alluviation. Pre-1835 eruptions are poorly dated; however, scoria-fall, pyroclastic-flow, and lahar deposits record a penultimate eruption of smaller magnitude than that of 1835. It occurred a few centuries earlier—perhaps in the fifteenth century. An undated sequence of thick tephra-fall deposits on

  8. Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadini, A.; Bisson, M.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Bevilacqua, A.; Aspinall, W. P.

    2017-06-01

    This study presents new and revised data sets about the spatial distribution of past volcanic vents, eruptive fissures, and regional/local structures of the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic system (Italy). The innovative features of the study are the identification and quantification of important sources of uncertainty affecting interpretations of the data sets. In this regard, the spatial uncertainty of each feature is modeled by an uncertainty area, i.e., a geometric element typically represented by a polygon drawn around points or lines. The new data sets have been assembled as an updatable geodatabase that integrates and complements existing databases for Somma-Vesuvio. The data are organized into 4 data sets and stored as 11 feature classes (points and lines for feature locations and polygons for the associated uncertainty areas), totaling more than 1700 elements. More specifically, volcanic vent and eruptive fissure elements are subdivided into feature classes according to their associated eruptive styles: (i) Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions (i.e., large- or medium-scale explosive activity); (ii) violent Strombolian and continuous ash emission eruptions (i.e., small-scale explosive activity); and (iii) effusive eruptions (including eruptions from both parasitic vents and eruptive fissures). Regional and local structures (i.e., deep faults) are represented as linear feature classes. To support interpretation of the eruption data, additional data sets are provided for Somma-Vesuvio geological units and caldera morphological features. In the companion paper, the data presented here, and the associated uncertainties, are used to develop a first vent opening probability map for the Somma-Vesuvio caldera, with specific attention focused on large or medium explosive events.

  9. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Applications in Flood Hazards Management: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dano Umar Lawal

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to examine and review the various applications of GIS and remote sensing tools in flood disaster management as opposed to the conventional means of recording the hydrological parameters, which in many cases failed to capture an extreme event. In the recent years, GIS along with remote sensing has become the key tools in flood disaster monitoring and management. Advancement particularly in the area of remote sensing application has developed gradually from optical remote sensing to microwave or radar remote sensing, which has proved a profound capability of penetrating a clouded sky and provided all weather capabilities compared to the later (optical remote sensing in flood monitoring, mapping, and management. The main concern here is delineation of flood prone areas and development of flood hazard maps indicating the risk areas likely to be inundated by significant flooding along with the damageable objects maps for the flood susceptible areas. Actually, flood depth is always considered to be the basic aspect in flood hazard mapping, and therefore in determining or estimating the flood depth, a Digital Elevation Model data (DEM is considered to be the most appropriate means of determining the flood depth from a remotely sensed data or hydrological data. Accuracy of flood depth estimation depends mainly on the resolution of the DEM data in a flat terrain and in the regions that experiences monsoon seasons such as the developing countries of Asia where there is a high dependence on agriculture, which made any effort for flood estimation or flood hazard mapping difficult due to poor availability of high resolution DEM. More so the idea of Web-based GIS is gradually becoming a reality, which plays an important role in the flood hazard management. Therefore, this paper provides a review of applications of GIS and remote sensing technology in flood disaster monitoring and management.

  10. Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

  11. Open Source Web-Based Solutions for Disseminating and Analyzing Flood Hazard Information at the Community Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    -Santillan, M. M.-M.; Santillan, J. R.; Morales, E. M. O.

    2017-09-01

    We discuss in this paper the development, including the features and functionalities, of an open source web-based flood hazard information dissemination and analytical system called "Flood EViDEns". Flood EViDEns is short for "Flood Event Visualization and Damage Estimations", an application that was developed by the Caraga State University to address the needs of local disaster managers in the Caraga Region in Mindanao, Philippines in accessing timely and relevant flood hazard information before, during and after the occurrence of flood disasters at the community (i.e., barangay and household) level. The web application made use of various free/open source web mapping and visualization technologies (GeoServer, GeoDjango, OpenLayers, Bootstrap), various geospatial datasets including LiDAR-derived elevation and information products, hydro-meteorological data, and flood simulation models to visualize various scenarios of flooding and its associated damages to infrastructures. The Flood EViDEns application facilitates the release and utilization of this flood-related information through a user-friendly front end interface consisting of web map and tables. A public version of the application can be accessed at http://121.97.192.11:8082/"target="_blank">http://121.97.192.11:8082/. The application is currently expanded to cover additional sites in Mindanao, Philippines through the "Geo-informatics for the Systematic Assessment of Flood Effects and Risks for a Resilient Mindanao" or the "Geo-SAFER Mindanao" Program.

  12. Automated, reproducible delineation of zones at risk from inundation by large volcanic debris flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Steve P.; Iverson, Richard M.

    1997-01-01

    Large debris flows can pose hazards to people and property downstream from volcanoes. We have developed a rapid, reproducible, objective, and inexpensive method to delineate distal debris-flow hazard zones. Our method employs the results of scaling and statistical analyses of the geometry of volcanic debris flows (lahars) to predict inundated valley cross-sectional areas (A) and planimetric areas (B) as functions of lahar volume. We use a range of specified lahar volumes to evaluate A and B. In a Geographic Information System (GIS) we employ the resulting range of predicted A and B to delineate gradations in inundation hazard, which is highest near the volcano and along valley thalwegs and diminishes as distances from the volcano and elevations above valley floors increase. Comparison of our computer-generated hazard maps with those constructed using traditional, field-based methods indicates that our method can provide an accurate means of delineating lahar hazard zones.

  13. Flood Hazard Mapping by Using Geographic Information System and Hydraulic Model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahdettin Demir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, flood hazard maps were prepared for the Mert River Basin, Samsun, Turkey, by using GIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS. In this river basin, human life losses and a significant amount of property damages were experienced in 2012 flood. The preparation of flood risk maps employed in the study includes the following steps: (1 digitization of topographical data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS, (2 simulation of flood lows of different return periods using a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS, and (3 preparation of flood risk maps by integrating the results of (1 and (2.

  14. Volcanic gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Kenneth A.; Gerlach, Terrance M.

    1995-01-01

    In Roman mythology, Vulcan, the god of fire, was said to have made tools and weapons for the other gods in his workshop at Olympus. Throughout history, volcanoes have frequently been identified with Vulcan and other mythological figures. Scientists now know that the “smoke" from volcanoes, once attributed by poets to be from Vulcan’s forge, is actually volcanic gas naturally released from both active and many inactive volcanoes. The molten rock, or magma, that lies beneath volcanoes and fuels eruptions, contains abundant gases that are released to the surface before, during, and after eruptions. These gases range from relatively benign low-temperature steam to thick hot clouds of choking sulfurous fume jetting from the earth. Water vapor is typically the most abundant volcanic gas, followed by carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Other volcanic gases are hydrogen sulfide, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, hydrofluoric acid, and other trace gases and volatile metals. The concentrations of these gas species can vary considerably from one volcano to the next.

  15. Use of Geologic and Paleoflood Information for INL Probabilistic Flood Hazard Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostenaa, D.; O'Connell, D.; Creed, B.

    2009-05-01

    The Big Lost River is a western U.S., closed basin stream which flows through and terminates on the Idaho National Laboratory. Historic flows are highly regulated, and peak flows decline downstream through natural and anthropomorphic influences. Glaciated headwater regions were the source of Pleistocene outburst floods which traversed the site. A wide range of DOE facilities (including a nuclear research reactor) require flood stage estimates for flow exceedance probabilities over a range from 1/100/yr to 1/100,000/yr per DOE risk based standards. These risk management objectives required the integration of geologic and geomorphic paleoflood data into Bayesian non parametric flood frequency analyses that incorporated measurement uncertainties in gaged, historical, and paleoflood discharges and non exceedance bounds to produce fully probabilistic flood frequency estimates for annual exceedance probabilities of specific discharges of interest. Two-dimensional hydraulic flow modeling with scenarios for varied hydraulic parameters, infiltration, and culvert blockages on the site was conducted for a range of discharges from 13-700 m3/s. High-resolution topographic grids and two-dimensional flow modeling allowed detailed evaluation of the potential impacts of numerous secondary channels and flow paths resulting from flooding in extreme events. These results were used to construct stage probability curves for 15 key locations on the site consistent with DOE standards. These probability curves resulted from the systematic inclusion of contributions of uncertainty from flood sources, hydraulic modeling, and flood-frequency analyses. These products also provided a basis to develop weights for logic tree branches associated with infiltration and culvert performance scenarios to produce probabilistic inundation maps. The flood evaluation process was structured using Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee processes (NRC-NUREG/CR-6372) concepts, evaluating and integrating the

  16. 基于知识本体的过程安全分析信息标准化%Standardized information for process hazard analysis based on ontology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴重光; 许欣; 纳永良; 张卫华

    2012-01-01

    过程危险分析的主要目标是识别危险剧情.危险剧情能够表达团队“头脑风暴”安全评价过程也能表达评价结论.危险剧情的知识本体是标准化过程安全分析信息的准确描述.知识本体是概念表达的明确规范.依据设计知识本体所遵循的规则提出了一种过程安全分析信息标准化方法,称为剧情对象模型(scenario objectmodel,SOM).SOM能够表达安全分析信息的内容和结构,能够实施计算机自动推理和半定量计算.应用知识本体SOM有效实现了计算机辅助自动安全评价和安全信息的传递、复查和共享.%The principal objective of process hazard analysis is to identify hazard scenarios. Both the course of team brainstorming hazard evaluation and its result information can be expressed as hazard scenarios. Ontology of hazard scenarios is accurate expression of standardized process hazard analysis information. An ontology is an explicit specification of a conceptualization. According to design criteria for ontologies, a standardized process hazard analysis information called scenario object model (SOM) was proposed. SOM was used to represent contents and structures of hazard evaluation information. Computer automatic reasoning and semi-quantitative algorithms could be implemented on SOM. Computer-aided automatic hazard evaluation and transfer, auditing and sharing of safety information were realized effectively by using ontology SOM.

  17. Influence of Climate Change on Flood Hazard using Climate Informed Bayesian Hierarchical Model in Johnson Creek River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme events are proven to be affected by climate change, influencing hydrologic simulations for which stationarity is usually a main assumption. Studies have discussed that this assumption would lead to large bias in model estimations and higher flood hazard consequently. Getting inspired by the importance of non-stationarity, we determined how the exceedance probabilities have changed over time in Johnson Creek River, Oregon. This could help estimate the probability of failure of a structure that was primarily designed to resist less likely floods according to common practice. Therefore, we built a climate informed Bayesian hierarchical model and non-stationarity was considered in modeling framework. Principle component analysis shows that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Pacific Index (WPI) and Eastern Asia (EA) are mostly affecting stream flow in this river. We modeled flood extremes using peaks over threshold (POT) method rather than conventional annual maximum flood (AMF) mainly because it is possible to base the model on more information. We used available threshold selection methods to select a suitable threshold for the study area. Accounting for non-stationarity, model parameters vary through time with climate indices. We developed a couple of model scenarios and chose one which could best explain the variation in data based on performance measures. We also estimated return periods under non-stationarity condition. Results show that ignoring stationarity could increase the flood hazard up to four times which could increase the probability of an in-stream structure being overtopped.

  18. Caldera rim collapse: A hidden volcanic hazard

    OpenAIRE

    Merle, Olivier; Michon, Laurent; Bachèlery, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    International audience; Following the emblematic flank collapse of Mount St Helens in 1981, numerous models of flank sliding have been proposed. These models have allowed to largely improve the understanding of mechanisms involved in such landslides, which represent a tremendous risk for populations living around volcanoes. In this article, a new mode of landslide formation, related to buried calderas, is described. The model emphasizes the paramount importance of the hidden ring fault that, ...

  19. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  20. 76 FR 21410 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Hazard Communication (HazCom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-15

    ... the 21st floor. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mario Distasio, Chief of the Economic Analysis... information is necessary for the proper performance of the functions of the agency, including whether the... Public: Business or other for-profit. Cost to Federal Government: There are no costs to the...

  1. Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

  2. Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hagemeier-Klose

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey.

    The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

  3. Monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions using the GOME-2 instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedelt, Pascal; Valks, Pieter; Loyola, Diego

    2014-05-01

    This contribution focusses on the GOME-2 SO2 column products from the METOP-A and B satellites. The GOME-2 SO2 column product has been developed in the framework of EUMETSAT's Satellite Application Facility on Ozone and Atmospheric Chemistry Monitoring (O3M-SAF). Satellite-based remote sensing measurements of volcanic SO2 provide critical information for reducing volcanic hazards. Volcanic eruptions may bring ash and gases (e.g. SO2) high up into the atmosphere, where a long-range transport can occur. SO2 is an important indicator for volcanic activity and an excellent tracer for volcanic eruption clouds, especially if ash detection techniques fail. SO2 can affect aviation safety: In the cabin it can cause disease and respiratory symptoms, whereas in its hydrogenated form H2SO4 it is highly corrosive and can cause damage to jet engines as well as pitting of windscreens. We will present results for volcanic events retrieved from GOME-2 solar backscattered measurements in the UV wavelength region around 320nm using the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) method. SO2 columns are generated operationally by DLR with the GOME Data Processor (GDP) version 4.7 and are available in near-real-time, i.e. within two hours after sensing. Using data from both MetOp satellites allows for a daily global coverage. We will furthermore present current improvements to the GOME-2 SO2 column product.

  4. Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

    2010-11-01

    A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

  5. 75 FR 65625 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Hazardous Waste...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-26

    ...://www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm . FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Norma Abdul-Malik, Office of Solid...; telephone number: 703-308-8753; fax number: 703-308-8617; e-mail address: abdul-malik.norma@epa.gov...

  6. Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanyas, Hakan

    2017-01-01

    he U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

  7. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-04-10

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.  Created: 4/10/2007 by CDC National Center for Environmental Health.   Date Released: 4/13/2007.

  8. Aerial infrared surveys in the investigation of geothermal and volcanic heat sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    This factsheet briefly summarizes and clarifies the application of aerial infrared surveys in geophysical exploration for geothermal energy sources and environmental monitoring for potential volcanic hazards.

  9. Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Siniscalchi

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, where intense unrest phenomena have long been recorded.

  10. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  11. Volcan Reventador's Unusual Umbrella

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, P.; Gioia, G.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2005-12-01

    In the past two decades, field observations of the deposits of volcanoes have been supplemented by systemmatic, and sometimes, opportunistic photographic documentation. Two photographs of the umbrella of the December 3, 2002 eruption of Volcan Reventador, Ecuador, reveal a prominently scalloped umbrella that is unlike any umbrella previously documented on a volcanic column. The material in the umbrella was being swept off a descending pyroclastic flow, and was, therefore, a co-ignimbrite cloud. We propose that the scallops are the result of a turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability with no precedents in volcanology. We ascribe the rare loss of buoyancy that drives this instability to the fact that the Reventador column fed on a cool co-ignimbrite cloud. On the basis of the observed wavelength of the scallops, we estimate a value for the eddy viscosity of the umbrella of 4000 ~m2/s. This value is consistent with a previously obtained lower bound (200 ~m2/s, K. Wohletz, priv. comm., 2005). We do not know the fate of the material in the umbrella subsequent to the photos. The analysis suggests that the umbrella was negatively buoyant. Field work on the co-ignimbrite deposits might reveal whether or not the material reimpacted, and if so, where and whether or not this material was involved in the hazardous flows that affected the main oil pipeline across Ecuador.

  12. Numerical Simulation and Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Tephra Fallout at Jinlongdingzi Volcano, Longgang Volcanic Field in Jilin Province%龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于红梅; 许建东; 吴建平; 栾鹏; 赵波

    2013-01-01

    空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法.本文根据改进的Suzuki (1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序.通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性.根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图.本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据.%Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption. Numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. According to a modified 2D diffusion model of Suzuki (1983), we develop a tephra diffusion program that can run in Windows system. Based on previous data, we simulated the diffusion scope of Jinlongdingzi volcanic eruption, which is the latest eruption in Longgang volcanic field. The simulated results are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are suitable. By using wind profiles of ten years, 7021 simulations under different wind profile were carried out, and then probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout were constructed for tephra thickness thresholds of 1 cm and 0.5 cm. This study can provide an important scientific basis to the volcanic hazard analysis and risk mitigation plans countermeasure in Longgang volcanic area.

  13. 76 FR 31971 - New Agency Information Collection Activity Under OMB Review: Security Program for Hazardous...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-02

    ... Management and Budget (OMB) for review and approval under the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA). The ICR..., electronic, mechanical, or other technological collection techniques or other forms of information technology... the classroom training sessions will also be asked to complete an evaluation form on site, which...

  14. 78 FR 8699 - Pipeline Safety: Information Collection Activities, Revision to Annual Report for Hazardous...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-06

    .... PHMSA proposes to additionally collect information in PART D ``Miles of Steel Pipe by Corrosion Protection'' and PART E ``Miles of Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) Pipe'' by state. PHMSA believes that most... Request: Revision. Abstract: To ensure adequate public protection from exposure to potential...

  15. Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT), Russia: preventing the danger of volcanic eruptions to aviation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girina, O.; Neal, Ch.

    2012-04-01

    The Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) has been a collaborative project of scientists from the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, the Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Surveys, and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (IVS, KB GS and AVO). The purpose of KVERT is to reduce the risk of costly, damaging, and possibly deadly encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds. To reduce this risk, KVERT collects all possible volcanic information and issues eruption alerts to aviation and other emergency officials. KVERT was founded by Institute of Volcanic Geology and Geochemistry FED RAS in 1993 (in 2004, IVGG merged with the Institute of Volcanology to become IVS). KVERT analyzes volcano monitoring data (seismic, satellite, visual and video, and pilot reports), assigns the Aviation Color Code, and issues reports on eruptive activity and unrest at Kamchatkan (since 1993) and Northern Kurile (since 2003) volcanoes. KVERT receives seismic monitoring data from KB GS (the Laboratory for Seismic and Volcanic Activity). KB GS maintains telemetered seismic stations to investigate 11 of the most active volcanoes in Kamchatka. Data are received around the clock and analysts evaluate data each day for every monitored volcano. Satellite data are provided from several sources to KVERT. AVO conducts satellite analysis of the Kuriles, Kamchatka, and Alaska as part of it daily monitoring and sends the interpretation to KVERT staff. KVERT interprets MODIS and MTSAT images and processes AVHRR data to look for evidence of volcanic ash and thermal anomalies. KVERT obtains visual volcanic information from volcanologist's field trips, web-cameras that monitor Klyuchevskoy (established in 2000), Sheveluch (2002), Bezymianny (2003), Koryaksky (2009), Avachinsky (2009), Kizimen (2011), and Gorely (2011) volcanoes, and pilots. KVERT staff work closely with staff of AVO, AMC (Airport Meteorological Center) at Yelizovo Airport and the Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC), the

  16. The Hazard Notification System (HANS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snedigar, S. F.; Venezky, D. Y.

    2009-12-01

    The Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) has developed a Hazard Notification System (HANS) for distributing volcanic activity information collected by scientists to airlines, emergency services, and the general public. In the past year, data from HANS have been used by airlines to make decisions about diverting or canceling flights during the eruption of Mount Redoubt. HANS was developed to provide a single system that each of the five U.S. volcano observatories could use for communicating and storing volcanic information about the 160+ potentially active U.S. volcanoes. The data that cover ten tables and nearly 100 fields are now stored in similar formats, and the information can be released in styles requested by our agency partners, such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Currently, HANS has about 4500 reports stored; on average, two - three reports are added daily. HANS (at its most basic form) consists of a user interface for entering data into one of many release types (Daily Status Reports, Weekly Updates, Volcano Activity Notifications, etc.); a database holding previous releases as well as observatory information such as email address lists and volcano boilerplates; and a transmission system for formatting releases and sending them out by email or other web related system. The user interface to HANS is completely web based, providing access to our observatory scientists from any online PC. The underlying database stores the observatory information and drives the observatory and program websites' dynamic updates and archived information releases. HANS also runs scripts for generating several different feeds including the program home page Volcano Status Map. Each observatory has the capability of running an instance of HANS. There are currently three instances of HANS and each instance is synchronized to all other instances using a master-slave environment. Information can be entered on any node; slave nodes transmit data to the master node

  17. 41 CFR 102-75.135 - If no hazardous substance activity took place on the property, what specific information must an...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... substance activity took place on the property, what specific information must an agency include in the title... DISPOSAL Utilization of Excess Real Property Title Report § 102-75.135 If no hazardous substance activity took place on the property, what specific information must an agency include in the title report? If...

  18. The α-β phase transition in volcanic cristobalite.

    OpenAIRE

    Damby, D. E.; Llewellin, E.W.; Horwell, C. J.; Williamson, B.J.; Najorka, J; Cressey, G.; Carpenter, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Cristobalite is a common mineral in volcanic ash produced from dome-forming eruptions. Assessment of the respiratory hazard posed by volcanic ash requires understanding the nature of the cristobalite it contains. Volcanic cristobalite contains coupled substitutions of Al3+ and Na+ for Si4+; similar co-substitutions in synthetic cristobalite are known to modify the crystal structure, affecting the stability of the α and β forms and the observed transition between them. Here, for the first time...

  19. Volcanic Ash Detection Using Raman LIDAR: "VADER" Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

  20. Seismic and volcanic risk studies - western Gulf of Alaska

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The objectives of this research are to evaluate geologic hazards to offshore petroleum development due to earthquake and volcanic activity in the lower Cook Inlet,...

  1. A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

    2013-12-01

    Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

  2. Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.; Ricci, T.

    2008-05-01

    A volcanic risk perception study of the population residing near Vesuvius was carried out between May and July, 2006. A total of 3600 questionnaires with 45 items were distributed to students, their parents and the general population. The largest number of surveys (2812) were distributed in the 18 towns of the Red Zone, the area nearest to the volcano that is exposed to pyroclastic flow hazards and whose 550,000 residents, according to the civil protection emergency plan (in operation since 1995), should be evacuated in case of an eruption crisis. The remaining 788 questionnaires were distributed in 3 additional towns and 3 neighborhoods of Naples, all within the Yellow Zone, which is an area exposed to pyroclastic fallout hazards. A total of 2655 surveys were returned, resulting in a response rate of 73.7%. Results indicated that people have a realistic view of the risk: they think that an eruption is likely, that it will have serious consequences for their towns and for themselves and their families and they are quite worried about the threat. However, several other social, economic, and security-related issues were listed as a problem more often than Vesuvius. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of knowledge about the emergency plan, a lack of confidence in the plan's success and in public officials and low feelings of self-efficacy. People want to be more deeply involved in public discussions with scientists and civil protection officials on emergency planning and individual preparedness measures. It is clear from the results that a major education-information effort is still needed to improve the public's knowledge, confidence and self-efficacy, thereby improving their collective and individual capability to positively face a future volcanic emergency.

  3. Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

    2013-03-01

    enough information about the possible effects of an eruption. In addition, residents' sense of community was significantly positively correlated with both confidence in local authorities and Civil Protection as well as residents' feelings of self efficacy regarding their ability to protect themselves from a potential eruption. These results indicate that most residents of Campi Flegrei, while aware of the volcanic threat posed by Vesuvio, are not familiar with more local volcanic hazards in their area. This, coupled with little knowledge about the Emergency Plan and the very low level of information residents have about the effects of a possible eruption, suggests that authorities, in collaboration with the scientific community, should direct their efforts to better educate and inform the population about volcanic hazards and the Emergency Plan, and that such efforts could be facilitated by trying to encourage stronger community bonds.

  4. Hazard information management, interagency coordination, and impacts of the 2005-2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano: Chapter 28 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Christina A.; Murray, Thomas L.; Power, John A.; Adleman, Jennifer N.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Osiensky, Jeffery M.; Power, John A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.

    2010-01-01

    Dissemination of volcano-hazard information in coordination with other Federal, State, and local agencies is a primary responsibility of the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). During the 2005-6 eruption of Augustine Volcano in Alaska, AVO used existing interagency relationships and written protocols to provide hazard guidance before, during, and after eruptive events. The 2005-6 eruption was notable because of the potential for volcanogenic tsunami, which required establishment of a new procedure for alerts of possible landslide-induced tsunami in Cook Inlet. Despite repeated ash-cloud generating explosions and far-traveled ash clouds, impacts from the event were relatively minor. Primary economic losses occurred when air carriers chose to avoid flights into potentially unsafe conditions. Post-eruption evaluations by agencies involved in the response indicated weaknesses in information centralization and availability of specific information regarding ash fall hazards in real time.

  5. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    (rockfall) and pyroclastic flows, b) Hazard map of lahars and debris flow, and c) Hazard map of ash-fall. The cartographic and database information obtained will be the basis for updating the Operational Plan of the Colima Volcano by the State Civil & Fire Protection Unit of Jalisco, Mexico, and the urban development plans of surrounding municipalities, in order to reduce their vulnerability to the hazards of the volcanic activity.

  6. Volcanic activity: a review for health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhall, C G; Fruchter, J S

    1986-03-01

    Volcanoes erupt magma (molten rock containing variable amounts of solid crystals, dissolved volatiles, and gas bubbles) along with pulverized pre-existing rock (ripped from the walls of the vent and conduit). The resulting volcanic rocks vary in their physical and chemical characteristics, e.g., degree of fragmentation, sizes and shapes of fragments, minerals present, ratio of crystals to glass, and major and trace elements composition. Variability in the properties of magma, and in the relative roles of magmatic volatiles and groundwater in driving an eruption, determine to a great extent the type of an eruption; variability in the type of an eruption in turn influences the physical characteristics and distribution of the eruption products. The principal volcanic hazards are: ash and larger fragments that rain down from an explosion cloud (airfall tephra and ballistic fragments); flows of hot ash, blocks, and gases down the slopes of a volcano (pyroclastic flows); "mudflows" (debris flows); lava flows; and concentrations of volcanic gases in topographic depressions. Progress in volcanology is bringing improved long- and short-range forecasts of volcanic activity, and thus more options for mitigation of hazards. Collaboration between health professionals and volcanologists helps to mitigate health hazards of volcanic activity.

  7. Crustal and tectonic controls on large-explosive volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Tom; Caricchi, Luca

    2017-04-01

    Quantifying the frequency-Magnitude (f-M) relationship for volcanic eruptions is important to estimate volcanic hazard. Furthermore, understanding how this relationship varies between different groups of volcanoes can provide insights into the processes that control the size and rate of volcanic events. Using a Bayesian framework, which allows us to conceptualise the volcanic record as a series of individual and unique time series, associated by a common group behaviour, we identify variations in the size and rate of volcanism in different volcanic arcs. These variations in behaviour are linked to key parameters that include the motion of subduction, rate of subduction, age of the slab and thickness of the crust. The effects of these parameters on volcanism are interpreted in terms of variations in mantle productivity and the thermal efficiency of magma transfer in arc crustal systems. Understanding the link between subduction architecture, heat content of magmatic systems, and volcanic activity will serve to improve our capacity to quantify volcanic hazard in regions with limited geological and historical records of volcanic activity.

  8. Use of terrestrial laser scanning for engineering geological applications on volcanic rock slopes - an example from Madeira island (Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, H. T.; Fernandez-Steeger, T. M.; Wiatr, T.; Rodrigues, D.; Azzam, R.

    2011-03-01

    This study focuses on the adoption of a modern, widely-used Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) application to investigate volcanic rock slopes in Ribeira de João Gomes valley (Funchal, Madeira island). The TLS data acquisition in May and December 2008 provided information for a characterization of the volcanic environment, detailed structural analysis and detection of potentially unstable rock masses on a slope. Using this information, it was possible to determine specific parameters for numerical rockfall simulations such as average block size, shape or potential sources. By including additional data, such as surface roughness, the results from numerical rockfall simulations allowed us to classify different hazardous areas based on run-out distances, frequency of impacts and related kinetic energy. Afterwards, a monitoring of hazardous areas can be performed in order to establish a rockfall inventory.

  9. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Raphaël

    2015-10-28

    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

  10. The Relative Severity of Single Hazards within a Multi-Hazard Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

    2013-04-01

    Here we present a description of the relative severity of single hazards within a multi-hazard framework, compiled through examining, quantifying and ranking the extent to which individual hazards trigger or increase the probability of other hazards. Hazards are broken up into six major groupings (geophysical, hydrological, shallow earth processes, atmospheric, biophysical and space), with the interactions for 21 different hazard types examined. These interactions include both one primary hazard triggering a secondary hazard, and one primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring. We identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, >90 interactions. The number of hazard-type linkages are then summed for each hazard in terms of their influence (the number of times one hazard type triggers another type of hazard, or itself) and their sensitivity (the number of times one hazard type is triggered by other hazard types, or itself). The 21 different hazards are then ranked based on (i) influence and (ii) sensitivity. We found, by quantification and ranking of these hazards, that: (i) The strongest influencers (those triggering the most secondary hazards) are volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and storms, which when taken together trigger almost a third of the possible hazard interactions identified; (ii) The most sensitive hazards (those being triggered by the most primary hazards) are identified to be landslides, volcanic eruptions and floods; (iii) When sensitivity rankings are adjusted to take into account the differential likelihoods of different secondary hazards being triggered, the most sensitive hazards are found to be landslides, floods, earthquakes and ground heave. We believe that by determining the strongest influencing and the most sensitive hazards for specific spatial areas, the allocation of resources for mitigation measures might be done more effectively.

  11. The Albano multiple-maar center (Rome, Italy): an active volcanic area since 70 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freda, C.; Gaeta, M.; Karner, D. B.; Marra, F.; Renne, P. R.; Scarlato, P.; Taddeucci, J.

    2003-04-01

    The Albano multiple-maar center hosted the most recent activity of the Alban Hills Volcanic District. The determination of its petrochemical characteristics and its geochronology is therefore of great importance in order to evaluate the status of this volcanic area and to assess the possible volcanic hazard for Rome. Despite the detailed 40Ar/39Ar geochronologic history of the products of its activity, relatively poor information on the stratigraphy and the petrology of this volcanic center exists. In order to develop a detailed chronostratigraphy, petrology, and a more thorough knowledge of the eruptive mechanisms that characterized the recent activity of the Albano center, a joint research project is being conducted by scientists from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, the University of California at Berkeley, and the Berkeley Geochronology Center. Here we have studied the most complete stratigraphic section located within the northern crater rim of Albano, where most of the products are exposed. We have investigated proximal and distal outcrops, in order to correlate them to the units identified in the northern crater rim section. We will present our recently acquired geochronologic and petrochemical data, which indicates magma chamber recharge associated with this <70 ka volcanism.

  12. Contrasting origin of two clay-rich debris flows at Cayambe Volcanic Complex, Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detienne, M.; Delmelle, P.; Guevara, A.; Samaniego, P.; Opfergelt, S.; Mothes, P. A.

    2017-04-01

    We investigate the sedimentological and mineralogical properties of a debris flow deposit west of Cayambe Volcanic Complex, an ice-clad edifice in Ecuador. The deposit exhibits a matrix facies containing up to 16 wt% of clays. However, the stratigraphic relationship of the deposit with respect to the Canguahua Formation, a widespread indurated volcaniclastic material in the Ecuadorian inter-Andean Valley, and the deposit alteration mineralogy differ depending on location. Thus, two different deposits are identified. The Río Granobles debris flow deposit ( 1 km3) is characterised by the alteration mineral assemblage smectite + jarosite, and sulphur isotopic analyses point to a supergene hydrothermal alteration environment. This deposit probably derives from a debris avalanche initiated before 14-21 ka by collapse of a hydrothermally altered rock mass from the volcano summit. In contrast, the alteration mineralogy of the second debris flow deposit, which may itself comprise more than one unit, is dominated by halloysite + smectite and relates to a shallower and more recent (3200 m) volcanic soils. Our study reinforces the significance of hydrothermal alteration in weakening volcano flanks and in favouring rapid transformation of a volcanic debris avalanche into a clay-rich debris flow. It also demonstrates that mineralogical analysis provides crucial information for resolving the origin of a debris flow deposit in volcanic terrains. Finally, we posit that slope instability, promoted by ongoing subglacial hydrothermal alteration, remains a significant hazard at Cayambe Volcanic Complex.

  13. 40 CFR 270.22 - Specific part B information requirements for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... requirements for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste. 270.22 Section 270.22 Protection of... requirements for boilers and industrial furnaces burning hazardous waste. When an owner or operator of a cement... testing or trial or operational burns of similar boilers or industrial furnaces burning similar...

  14. Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, N. J.; Dacre, H. F.

    2016-01-01

    The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models. In this paper the fractions skill score has been used for the first time to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash. This objective measure of skill provides more information than traditional point-by-point metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale over which skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale over which a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The idealized scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200-700 (km)2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite-retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

  15. Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. J. Harvey

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD models. In this paper an objective metric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS. This measure of skill provides more information than traditional point-by-point metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale over which skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale over which a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700 km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

  16. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    CERN Document Server

    Grams, W H

    2000-01-01

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U S . Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for HNF-SD-WM-SAR-067, Tank Farms Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved Authorization Basis (AB) for the River Protection Project (RPP). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the Tank Farms FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The Hazard Analysis Database supports the preparation of Chapters 3 ,4 , and 5 of the Tank Farms FSAR and the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Analysis Database: Data from t...

  17. Issues for SME Credit Information DB Institutionsand Expectations for the Econophysics ---Scientific Economic Policies for Avoiding Moral Hazard---

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanabe, T.

    The CRD database, which has been accumulating financial data on SMEsover the ten years since its founding, and has gathered approximately 12 million records for around 2 million SMEs, approximately 3 million records for somewhere around 900,000 sole proprietors, also collected default data on these companies and sole proprietors. The CRD database's weakness is anonymity. Going forward, therefore, it appears the CRD Association is faced with questions concerning how it will enhance the attractiveness of its database whether new knowledge should be gained by using econophysics or other research approaches. We have already seen several examples of knowledge gained through econophysical analyses using the CRD database, and I would like to express my hope that we will eventually see greater application of the SME credit information database and econophysical analysis for the development of Japans SME policies which are scientific economic policies for avoiding moral hazard, and will expect elucidating risk scenarios for the global financial, natural disaster, and other shocks expected to happen with greater frequency. Therefore, the role played by econophysics will become increasingly important, and we have high expectations for the role to be played by the field of econophysics.

  18. Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

    2014-05-01

    In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

  19. Friction in volcanic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Jackie E.; Lavallée, Yan

    2016-04-01

    to eruption behaviour and during ascent magma behaves in an increasingly rock-like manner as it degasses and crystallises. This character aids the development of shear zones in the conduit, producing fault surfaces that host gouge, cataclasite and pseudotachylyte and which control the last hundreds of meters of ascent by frictional slip. Recent work has shown that the occurrence of vesiculation of gas bubbles modifies the rheology of frictional melt and in extreme cases can trigger eruption style to switch from effusive to explosive activity. Hence it is of vital importance to recognise the frictional behaviour of volcanic rocks and magmas to understand the continuation of an eruption and associated hazards.

  20. Turning the rumor of the May 11, 2011, earthquake prediction in Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concetta Nostro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A devastating earthquake was predicted to hit Rome on May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew on the internet and was amplified by the media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment, and this fed the credibility of the earthquake prediction. During the months preceding May 2011, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this prediction, by the inhabitants of Rome and by tourists. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, on May 11, 2011, the INGV decided to organize an Open Day at its headquarters in Rome, to inform the public about Italian seismicity and earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, to talk with journalists about this prediction, and to present the Open Day. During this ‘Day’, 13 new videos were also posted on our YouTube/INGVterremoti channel to explain earthquake processes and hazards, and to provide periodic updates on seismicity in Italy from the seismicity monitoring room. On May 11, 2011, the INGV headquarters was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors, from 10:00 am to 9:00 pm: families, students with and without teachers, civil protection groups, and many journalists. This initiative that was built up in a few weeks has had very large feedback, and was a great opportunity to talk with journalists and people about earthquake prediction, and more in general about the seismic risk in Italy.

  1. Volcanic ash melting under conditions relevant to ash turbine interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenjia; Lavallée, Yan; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Kueppers, Ulrich; Cimarelli, Corrado; Dingwell, Donald B

    2016-03-02

    The ingestion of volcanic ash by jet engines is widely recognized as a potentially fatal hazard for aircraft operation. The high temperatures (1,200-2,000 °C) typical of jet engines exacerbate the impact of ash by provoking its melting and sticking to turbine parts. Estimation of this potential hazard is complicated by the fact that chemical composition, which affects the temperature at which volcanic ash becomes liquid, can vary widely amongst volcanoes. Here, based on experiments, we parameterize ash behaviour and develop a model to predict melting and sticking conditions for its global compositional range. The results of our experiments confirm that the common use of sand or dust proxy is wholly inadequate for the prediction of the behaviour of volcanic ash, leading to overestimates of sticking temperature and thus severe underestimates of the thermal hazard. Our model can be used to assess the deposition probability of volcanic ash in jet engines.

  2. Compilation of Disruptions to Airports by Volcanic Activity (Version 1.0, 1944-2006)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Mayberry, Gari C.; Casadevall, Thomas J.; Wunderman, Richard

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. To more fully characterize the nature and scope of volcanic hazards to airports, we collected data on incidents of airports throughout the world that have been affected by volcanic activity, beginning in 1944 with the first documented instance of damage to modern aircraft and facilities in Naples, Italy, and extending through 2006. Information was gleaned from various sources, including news outlets, volcanological reports (particularly the Smithsonian Institution's Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network), and previous publications on the topic. This report presents the full compilation of the data collected. For each incident, information about the affected airport and the volcanic source has been compiled as a record in a Microsoft Access database. The database is incomplete in so far as incidents may not have not been reported or documented, but it does present a good sample from diverse parts of the world. Not included are en-route diversions to avoid airborne ash clouds at cruise altitudes. The database has been converted to a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. To make the PDF version of table 1 in this open-file report resemble the spreadsheet, order the PDF pages as 12, 17, 22; 13, 18, 23; 14, 19, 24; 15, 20, 25; and 16, 21, 26. Analysis of the database reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were impacted on 171 occasions from 1944 through 2006 by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. The number of affected airports (101) probably is better constrained than the number of incidents (171) because recurring disruptions at a given airport may have been lumped together or not reported by news agencies, whereas the initial disruption likely is noticed and reported and thus the airport correctly counted.

  3. Volcanic geomorphology using TanDEM-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael; Kubanek, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Topography is perhaps the most fundamental dataset for any volcano, yet is surprisingly difficult to collect, especially during the course of an eruption. For example, photogrammetry and lidar are time-intensive and often expensive, and they cannot be employed when the surface is obscured by clouds. Ground-based surveys can operate in poor weather but have poor spatial resolution and may expose personnel to hazardous conditions. Repeat passes of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data provide excellent spatial resolution, but topography in areas of surface change (from vegetation swaying in the wind to physical changes in the landscape) between radar passes cannot be imaged. The German Space Agency's TanDEM-X satellite system, however, solves this issue by simultaneously acquiring SAR data of the surface using a pair of orbiting satellites, thereby removing temporal change as a complicating factor in SAR-based topographic mapping. TanDEM-X measurements have demonstrated exceptional value in mapping the topography of volcanic environments in as-yet limited applications. The data provide excellent resolution (down to ~3-m pixel size) and are useful for updating topographic data at volcanoes where surface change has occurred since the most recent topographic dataset was collected. Such data can be used for applications ranging from correcting radar interferograms for topography, to modeling flow pathways in support of hazards mitigation. The most valuable contributions, however, relate to calculating volume changes related to eruptive activity. For example, limited datasets have provided critical measurements of lava dome growth and collapse at volcanoes including Merapi (Indonesia), Colima (Mexico), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and of basaltic lava flow emplacement at Tolbachik (Kamchatka), Etna (Italy), and Kīlauea (Hawai`i). With topographic data spanning an eruption, it is possible to calculate eruption rates - information that might not otherwise be available

  4. Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... you throw these substances away, they become hazardous waste. Some hazardous wastes come from products in our homes. Our garbage can include such hazardous wastes as old batteries, bug spray cans and paint ...

  5. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  6. Geochemical study for volcanic surveillance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Panichi, C.; La Ruffa, G. [Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, International Institute for Geothermal Research Ghezzano, PI (Italy)

    2000-07-01

    For years, geologists have been striving to reconstruct volcanic eruptions from the analysis of pyroclastic deposits and lava flows on the surface of the earth and in the oceans. This effort has produced valuable information on volcanic petrology and magma generation, separation, mixing, crystallisation, and interaction with water in phreatomagmatic and submarine eruptions. The volcanological process are tied to the dynamics of the earth's crust and lithosphere. The mantle, subducted oceanic crust, and continental crust contain different rock types and are sources of different magmas. Magmas consist primarily of completely or partially molten silicates containing volatile materials either dissolved in the melt or as bubbles of gas. The silicate and volatile portions affect the physical properties of magma and, therefore, the nature of a volcanic eruption.

  7. A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

  8. The Records of the Tectonic Evolution From the Volcanics in Qiangtang Basin, Tibet

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    He Zhonghua; Yang Deming; Li Cai; Pu Zhongyu

    2000-01-01

    The volcanism in Qiangtang Basin is very frequent due to the divergence and subduction of the various plates. The study indicates that these volcanics are formed in different tectonic settings: 1 )Hercynian volcanics are mainly basalts and are formed in the intraplate and intercontinental rift. 2 ) Indosinian volcanics markedly vary in the distribution and composition and reflect transitional MORB and island are environments respectively. 3) Yanshanian volcanics consist predominantly of basalts, andesites, dacites and rhyolites and are characterized by calc- alkaline volcanic suite, indicating island arc setting. 4)Himalayan volcanics are complicated and associated with intraplate orogency. The volcanism provides important tectonic information for recognizing the evolution of Qiangtang Basin.

  9. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  10. QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

    2013-11-01

    One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

  11. A Bayesian Seismic Hazard Analysis for the city of Naples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faenza, Licia; Pierdominici, Simona; Hainzl, Sebastian; Cinti, Francesca R.; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Perfetti, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In the last years many studies have been focused on determination and definition of the seismic, volcanic and tsunamogenic hazard in the city of Naples. The reason is that the town of Naples with its neighboring area is one of the most densely populated places in Italy. In addition, the risk is increased also by the type and condition of buildings and monuments in the city. It is crucial therefore to assess which active faults in Naples and surrounding area could trigger an earthquake able to shake and damage the urban area. We collect data from the most reliable and complete databases of macroseismic intensity records (from 79 AD to present). For each seismic event an active tectonic structure has been associated. Furthermore a set of active faults, well-known from geological investigations, located around the study area that they could shake the city, not associated with any earthquake, has been taken into account for our studies. This geological framework is the starting point for our Bayesian seismic hazard analysis for the city of Naples. We show the feasibility of formulating the hazard assessment procedure to include the information of past earthquakes into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This strategy allows on one hand to enlarge the information used in the evaluation of the hazard, from alternative models for the earthquake generation process to past shaking and on the other hand to explicitly account for all kinds of information and their uncertainties. The Bayesian scheme we propose is applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of Naples. We implement five different spatio-temporal models to parameterize the occurrence of earthquakes potentially dangerous for Naples. Subsequently we combine these hazard curves with ShakeMap of past earthquakes that have been felt in Naples. The results are posterior hazard assessment for three exposure times, e.g., 50, 10 and 5 years, in a dense grid that cover the municipality of Naples, considering bedrock soil

  12. Uranium series, volcanic rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, Jorge A.

    2014-01-01

    Application of U-series dating to volcanic rocks provides unique and valuable information about the absolute timing of crystallization and differentiation of magmas prior to eruption. The 238U–230Th and 230Th-226Ra methods are the most commonly employed for dating the crystallization of mafic to silicic magmas that erupt at volcanoes. Dates derived from the U–Th and Ra–Th methods reflect crystallization because diffusion of these elements at magmatic temperatures is sluggish (Cherniak 2010) and diffusive re-equilibration is insignificant over the timescales (less than or equal to 10^5 years) typically associated with pre-eruptive storage of nearly all magma compositions (Cooper and Reid 2008). Other dating methods based on elements that diffuse rapidly at magmatic temperatures, such as the 40Ar/39Ar and (U–Th)/He methods, yield dates for the cooling of magma at the time of eruption. Disequilibrium of some short-lived daughters of the uranium series such as 210Po may be fractionated by saturation of a volatile phase and can be employed to date magmatic gas loss that is synchronous with volcanic eruption (e.g., Rubin et al. 1994).

  13. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2014-07-01

    The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  14. Volunteered Geographic Information in Natural Hazard Analysis: A Systematic Literature Review of Current Approaches with a Focus on Preparedness and Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Klonner

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of new technologies, citizens can contribute to scientific research via Web 2.0 applications for collecting and distributing geospatial data. Integrating local knowledge, personal experience and up-to-date geoinformation indicates a promising approach for the theoretical framework and the methods of natural hazard analysis. Our systematic literature review aims at identifying current research and directions for future research in terms of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI within natural hazard analysis. Focusing on both the preparedness and mitigation phase results in eleven articles from two literature databases. A qualitative analysis for in-depth information extraction reveals auspicious approaches regarding community engagement and data fusion, but also important research gaps. Mainly based in Europe and North America, the analysed studies deal primarily with floods and forest fires, applying geodata collected by trained citizens who are improving their knowledge and making their own interpretations. Yet, there is still a lack of common scientific terms and concepts. Future research can use these findings for the adaptation of scientific models of natural hazard analysis in order to enable the fusion of data from technical sensors and VGI. The development of such general methods shall contribute to establishing the user integration into various contexts, such as natural hazard analysis.

  15. Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathnur, Ashwini

    2017-04-01

    " positives. Cost - free data made available. Minimum band - width problem. Rapid communication system. Validation and Requirements of the New products of the Remote Sensing instruments The qualities of the existing products would be present in the new products also. Along with these qualities, newly devised additional qualities are also required in order to build an advanced remote sensing instrument. The new additional requirements are mentioned below:- Review Comment Number 1 Enlarging the spatial resolution so that the volcanic plumes erupting from the early volcanic eruption is captured by the remote sensing instrument. This spatial resolution data capture would involve better video and camera facilities on the remote sensing instrument. Review Comment Number 2 Capturing the traces of carbon, carbonic acid and water vapour, along with the existing product's capture of sulphur dioxide and volcanic Ash. Review Comment Number 3 Creating an additional module in the instrument to derive the functionality of forecasting a volcanic eruption. This new forecast model should be able to predict the occurrences of volcanic eruption several months in advance. This is basically to create mechanisms for providing early solutions to the problems of mitigation of volcanic hazards. Review Comment Number 4 Creating additional features in the remote sensing instrument to enable the automatic transfer of forecasted eruptions of volcanoes, to the disaster relief operations team. This transfer of information is to be performed automatically, without any request raised from the relief operations team, for the predicted forecast information. This is for the purpose of receiving the information at the right - time, thus eliminating any possibility of occurrences of errors during hazard management.

  16. Review of research to inform the development of a hazard perception test for novice drivers in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Venter, Karien

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A driver constantly needs to be aware of his or her driving within a specific traffic environment. “Situational Awareness’ is the term used to describe the level of awareness drivers have to apply in the driving environment, specifically to hazards...

  17. Volcanic caves of East Africa - an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jim W. Simons

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous Tertiary to recent volcanoes are located in East Africa. Thus, much of the region is made up volcanic rock, which hosts the largest and greatest variety of East Africas caves. Exploration of volcanic caves has preoccupied members of Cave Exploration Group of East Africa (CEGEA for the past 30 years. The various publications edited by CEGEA are in this respect a treasure troves of speleological information. In the present paper an overview on the most important volcanic caves and areas are shortly reported.

  18. Characteristics of civil aviation atmospheric hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Robert E.; Montoya, J.; Richards, Mark A.; Galliano, J.

    1994-01-01

    Clear air turbulence, wake vortices, dry hail, and volcanic ash are hazards to civil aviation that have not been brought to the forefront of public attention by a catastrophic accident. However, these four hazards are responsible for major and minor injuries, emotional trauma, significant aircraft damage, and in route and terminal area inefficiency. Most injuries occur during clear air turbulence. There is significant aircraft damage for any volcanic ash encounter. Rolls induced by wake vortices occur near the ground. Dry hail often appears as an area of weak echo on the weather radar. This paper will present the meteorological, electromagnetic, and spatiotemporal characteristics of each hazard. A description of a typical aircraft encounter with each hazard will be given. Analyzed microwave and millimeter wave sensor systems to detect each hazard will be presented.

  19. Volcanic plumes fast detection: a methodological proposal for an integrated approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernabeo, R. Alberto; Tositti, Laura; Brattich, Erika

    2017-04-01

    , running and control of the territory in which public safety is or may be at risk, and with reference to all those subjects that require a continuous cyclical process of observation, evaluation and interpretation. At the same time, a better knowledge of the chemical properties of volcanic emissions is a must for the future expansion foreseen in the next coming years in air transportation, for the health hazards that a volcanic ash cloud poses around the world and for a better understanding of the reduction already observed in GPS/GNSS satellite signals anytime a volcanic cloud covers the sky (thus obscuring the signal used by the navigation systems of modern aircraft), with associated safety risks. In this paper we propose a multitasking experimental approach based on the integrated use of remote sensing, aerosol sampling and chemical speciation together with the use of drones/tethered balloons equipped with aerosol sensors aimed at providing all the information which have been collected partially so far. The study will also collect information about the 3D distribution of all the aerosol properties described before with the aim of determining and helping the vertical resolution of data from remote sensing.

  20. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  1. Volcanic Eruption: Students Develop a Contingency Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisinger, Philipp; Wittlich, Christian

    2013-04-01

    , causing a blockage and afflux of the Rhine, which, due to the given conditions of a very narrow valley, would lead to excessive flooding affecting even the greater Rhine-Main-region. Not to mention the consequences of a pyroclastic flow, dropping volcanic bombs and further hazardous/disastrous consequences. In comparison to other "potentially active" or "active volcanoes", e.g. the Vesuvius, the Laacher See is scarcely monitored and according to recent publications poorly analyzed in terms of contingency and evacuation plans. This offers space for critical analysis and creative solutions to an existing problem. Short: We need geographers and their knowledge to provide help. Given these facts, the Laacher See could be the layout for a very interesting geography project bringing together previously gained knowledge and understanding of volcanic activities, their destructive powers, consequences and risks in case of an eruption in combination with their topographical characteristics. Your students thereby act the role of a geoscientist developing contingency plans and evacuation zones for the greater Laacher See area. This involves a detailed analysis of the topographical characteristics based on (classic) topographic maps or online via the use of a GIS (e.g. Google maps). In a second step students enlist the possible consequences they already know according to their range and copy them onto a transparency layer on the topographic map. Using such a layer technique students add population density, important topographic features and maybe even anticipated wind directions to their map. The information density and the specific layout of this map are thereby only determined by the student's previous knowledge, their personal abilities and skills and the amount of time provided. This offers the opportunities to even differentiate the task within your group and provide support adjusted to the individual students level. On the basis of their own thematic map your students should be

  2. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    A devastating earthquake had been predicted for May 11, 2011 in Rome. This prediction was never released officially by anyone, but it grew up in the Internet and was amplified by media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, a planetary alignment was really expected and this contributed to give credibility to the earthquake prediction among people. During the previous months, INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this supposed prediction by Roman inhabitants and tourists. Given the considerable mediatic impact of this expected earthquake, INGV decided to organize an Open Day in its headquarter in Rome for people who wanted to learn more about the Italian seismicity and the earthquake as natural phenomenon. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, in which we talked about this prediction, we presented the Open Day, and we had a scientific discussion with journalists about the earthquake prediction and more in general on the real problem of seismic risk in Italy. About 40 journalists from newspapers, local and national tv's, press agencies and web news attended the Press Conference and hundreds of articles appeared in the following days, advertising the 11 May Open Day. The INGV opened to the public all day long (9am - 9pm) with the following program: i) meetings with INGV researchers to discuss scientific issues; ii) visits to the seismic monitoring room, open 24h/7 all year; iii) guided tours through interactive exhibitions on earthquakes and Earth's deep structure; iv) lectures on general topics from the social impact of rumors to seismic risk reduction; v) 13 new videos on channel YouTube.com/INGVterremoti to explain the earthquake process and give updates on various aspects of seismic monitoring in Italy; vi) distribution of books and brochures. Surprisingly, more than 3000 visitors came to visit INGV

  3. Cartography of flood hazard by overflowing rivers using hydraulic modeling and geographic information system: Oued El Harrach case (North of Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. W. Astite

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is the management of flood risk through the use of cartography of flood hazards by overflowing rivers. This cartography is developed using modern simulation tools namely the hydraulic model (HECRAS as well as the Geographic Information System (ArcGis. The study concerns Oued El Harrach (North of Algeria surrounding area which has been subject to several floods causing significant human and material damage. This loss is a consequence of the use flood zones as habitats for people. This can be avoided in the future by use the mapping of the spatial extent of the flood hazard on the land of the Oued El Harrach. Hence the importance of the cartography developed in this study as an essential tool for decision makers in prevention, protection and management of flood risks.

  4. Natural Hazards In Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Vera, M.

    2001-12-01

    Around the world more than 300 natural disasters occur each year, taking about 250,000 lives and directly affecting more than 200 million people. Natural hazards are complex and vary greatly in their frequency, speed of onset, duration and area affected. They are distinguished from extreme natural events, which are much more common and widespread, by their potential impacts on human societies. A natural disaster is the occurrence of a natural hazard on a large scale, involving great damage and, particularly in developing countries, great loss of life. The Basin of Mexico, whose central and southwestern parts are occupied by the urban area of Mexico City at the average altitude of 2,240 m above the sea level, is located on the southern edge of the Southern Plateau Central, on a segment of the Trans-Mexican Neovolcanic Belt that developed during Pliocene-Holocene times. The Basin of Mexico is a closed basin, which was created with the closing of the former Valley of Mexico because of basaltic-andesitic volcanism that formed the Sierra de Chichinautzin south of the city. The south-flowing drainage was obstructed and prompted the development of a lake that became gradually filled with sediments during the last 700,000 years. The lake fill accumulated unconformably over a terrain of severely dissected topography, which varies notably in thickness laterally. The major part of the urban area of Mexico City is built over these lake deposits, whereas the rest is built over alluvial material that forms the transition zone between the lake deposits and what constitutes the basement for the basin fill. In the present study, the effect of rain, fire and earthquakes onto Mexico City is evaluated. Rain risk was calculated using the most dangerous flood paths. The fire risk zones were determined by defining the vegetation areas with greater probability to catch fires. Earthquake hazards were determined by characterization of the zones that are vulnerable to damages produced by

  5. 2010 Volcanic activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Christina A.; Herrick, Julie; Girina, O.A.; Chibisova, Marina; Rybin, Alexander; McGimsey, Robert G.; Dixon, Jim

    2014-01-01

    The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest at 12 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2010. The most notable volcanic activity consisted of intermittent ash emissions from long-active Cleveland volcano in the Aleutian Islands. AVO staff also participated in hazard communication regarding eruptions or unrest at seven volcanoes in Russia as part of an ongoing collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

  6. From «information deluge» to explicit knowledge: how web technologies and web collaboration could support Natural Hazards Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Franco, Sabina; Rapisardi, Elena; Giardino, Marco

    2015-04-01

    In the last 20 years the debate on disasters preparedness and relief operations underlined the need to evolve from "war" against hazards to "preparedness" in order to decrease vulnerability [Wisner et al., 1994]. In this perspective the key word "resilience" fosters a cultural change that should drive the risk & emergency management towards a participatory dimension - involving scientific communities, experts, civil protection bodies, media, citizens, volunteers, civil society -: from protection (passive behaviour) to resilience, supporting a wide responsibility and proactive behaviour (Longstaff, Armstrong, Perrin, 2010). Without any doubt, recent disasters highlighted how the new media increase the information complexity; the internet and the web 2.0 have augmented information and data availability, however some critical points are arising: easy access to information, precision and reliability, that are at the centre of the current debate. The internet "information deluge" is a continuous and rather chaotic flow, hence how to give answer to the increasing need of clear, and trustworthy information on NH? How to share knowledge? How to support a citizen-science perspective? Which are the best practices to switch towards a new resilient information ecosystem? The challenge is to find models and tools to build an open and structured knowledge to facilitate the access to validated and reliable information, build a common understanding on NH and local risks, so to react and take the right decision in order to cope with and reduce the impact of disasters. The confusion and misunderstanding on natural disaster terms is often underestimated in its consequences. Terminology could be a source of ambiguity and terminology associated with identifying and communicating risk is a relatively new science (F.M. Christensen et al., 2003). It is needed to start back from «words», from their meaning and relations between concepts and terms, as precise comprehension allows a more

  7. A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Information about public networks is also recorded in order to give an overall idea of the built environment condition of the island. The vulnerability assessment of the technical systems describes the potential damages that could stress systems like electricity supply, water distribution, communication networks or transport systems. These damages can also be described as function disruption of the system. The important aspect is not only the physical capacity of a system to resist, but also its capacity to continue functioning. The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. Six different hazard scenarios have been identified based on a detailed stratigraphic work. The urbanization on Vulcano took place in the 1980s with no real planning and its population mostly subsists on tourism. Our preliminary results show that Vulcano is not characterized by a great variability of architectural typologies and construction materials. Three main types of buildings are present (masonry with concrete frame, masonry with manufactured stone units, masonry with hollow clay bricks) and no statistically significant trends were found between physical and morphological characteristics. The recent signs of volcanic unrest combined with a complex vulnerability of the island due to an uncontrolled urban development and a significant seasonal variation of the exposed population in summer months result in a high volcanic risk. As a result, Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model and to

  8. Technical-Information Products for a National Volcano Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Brantley, Steven R.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Nye, Christopher J.; Serafino, George N.; Siebert, Lee; Venezky, Dina Y.; Wald, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Technical outreach - distinct from general-interest and K-12 educational outreach - for volcanic hazards is aimed at providing usable scientific information about potential or ongoing volcanic activity to public officials, businesses, and individuals in support of their response, preparedness, and mitigation efforts. Within the context of a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) (Ewert et al., 2005), technical outreach is a critical process, transferring the benefits of enhanced monitoring and hazards research to key constituents who have to initiate actions or make policy decisions to lessen the hazardous impact of volcanic activity. This report discusses recommendations of the Technical-Information Products Working Group convened in 2006 as part of the NVEWS planning process. The basic charge to the Working Group was to identify a web-based, volcanological 'product line' for NVEWS to meet the specific hazard-information needs of technical users. Members of the Working Group were: *Marianne Guffanti (Chair), USGS, Reston VA *Steve Brantley, USGS, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory HI *Peter Cervelli, USGS, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage AK *Chris Nye, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and Alaska Volcano Observatory, Fairbanks AK *George Serafino, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs MD *Lee Siebert, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC *Dina Venezky, USGS, Volcano Hazards Team, Menlo Park CA *Lisa Wald, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Golden CO

  9. Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley G.; Doubleday, Joshua R.; Chien, Steve A.

    2013-01-01

    In a volcanic emergency, time is of the essence. It is vital to quantify eruption parameters (thermal emission, effusion rate, location of activity) and distribute this information as quickly as possible to decision-makers in order to enable effective evaluation of eruption-related risk and hazard. The goal of this work was to automate and streamline processing of spacecraft hyperspectral data, automate product generation, and automate distribution of products. Visible and Short-Wave Infrared Images of volcanic eruption in Iceland in May 2010." class="caption" align="right">The software rapidly processes hyperspectral data, correcting for incident sunlight where necessary, and atmospheric transmission; detects thermally anomalous pixels; fits data with model black-body thermal emission spectra to determine radiant flux; calculates atmospheric convection thermal removal; and then calculates total heat loss. From these results, an estimation of effusion rate is made. Maps are generated of thermal emission and location (see figure). Products are posted online, and relevant parties notified. Effusion rate data are added to historical record and plotted to identify spikes in activity for persistently active eruptions. The entire process from start to end is autonomous. Future spacecraft, especially those in deep space, can react to detection of transient processes without the need to communicate with Earth, thus increasing science return. Terrestrially, this removes the need for human intervention.

  10. Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

  11. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  12. Recent seismicity detection increase in the Santorini volcanic island complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouliaras, G.; Drakatos, G.; Makropoulos, K.; Melis, N. S.

    2012-04-01

    Santorini is the most active volcanic complex in the South Aegean Volcanic Arc. To improve the seismological network detectability of the seismicity in this region, the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) recently installed 4 portable seismological stations supplementary to the 3 permanent stations operating in the region. The addition of these stations has significantly improved the detectability and reporting of the local seismic activity in the NOA instrumental seismicity catalogue. In this study we analyze quantitatively the seismicity of the Santorini volcanic complex. The results indicate a recent significant reporting increase mainly for events of small magnitude and an increase in the seismicity rate by more than 100%. The mapping of the statistical significance of the rate change with the z-value method reveals that the rate increase exists primarily in the active fault zone perpendicular to the extensional tectonic stress regime that characterizes this region. The spatial distribution of the b-value around the volcanic complex indicates a low b-value distribution parallel to the extensional stress field, while the b-value cross section of the volcanic complex indicates relatively high b-values under the caldera and a significant b-value decrease with depth. These results are found to be in general agreement with the results from other volcanic regions and they encourage further investigations concerning the seismic and volcanic hazard and risk estimates for the Santorini volcanic complex using the NOA earthquake catalogue.

  13. Basaltic ignimbrites in monogenetic volcanism: the example of La Garrotxa volcanic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martí, J.; Planagumà, L. l.; Geyer, A.; Aguirre-Díaz, G.; Pedrazzi, D.; Bolós, X.

    2017-05-01

    pyroclastic products, which may extend several kilometres from source, has an important consequence for hazard assessment in these volcanic fields, which previously have been considered to present only minor hazards and risks.

  14. Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

    2013-12-01

    volcano operated by ERI, Tokyo University. In all cases, we could estimated volcanic gas compositions, such as CO2/SO2 ratios, but also found out that it is necessary to improve the techniques to avoid the contamination of the exhaust gases and to approach more concentrated part of the plume. It was also revealed that the aerial measurements have an advantage of the stable background. The error of the volcanic gas composition estimates are largely due to the large fluctuation of the atmospheric H2O and CO2 concentrations near the ground. The stable atmospheric background obtained by the UAV measurements enables accurate estimate of the volcanic gas compositions. One of the most successful measurements was that on May 18, 2011 at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano during repeating Vulcanian eruption stage. The major component composition was obtained as H2O=97, CO2=1.5, SO2=0.2, H2S=0.24, H2=0.006 mol%; the high CO2 contents suggests relatively deep source of the magma degassing and the apparent equilibrium temperature obtained as 400°C indicates that the gas was cooled during ascent to the surface. The volcanic plume measurement with UAV will become an important tool for the volcano monitoring that provides important information to understand eruption processes.

  15. An information system for the evaluation of hazardous waste sites in the real world or: What the heck is GIS, just give me a map!

    Energy Technology Data Exchange