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Sample records for volatile electricity market

  1. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  2. Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

    2007-01-01

    Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

  3. Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

  4. Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna

    2009-01-01

    By using a novel approach in this paper, (λ,σ 2 )-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news

  5. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Masao [Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6 T 1Z2 (Canada)]. E-mail: masao.nakamura@sauder.ubc.ca; Nakashima, Tomoaki [Powerex Corp., Vancouver, BC, V6C 2X8 (Canada); Niimura, Takahide [TNC Systems Technologies, Burnaby, BC, V5 H 2W4 (Canada)

    2006-09-15

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power.

  6. Electricity markets volatility: estimates, regularities and risk management applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Masao; Nakashima, Tomoaki; Niimura, Takahide

    2006-01-01

    The recent deregulation of the market for electric power in many parts of the US and Canada has expanded the set of potential tools for managing the types of risks faced by both generators and consumers of electric power. In particular manufacturing and other firms whose operations are powered by electricity now face, on a continuing basis, the engineering management decisions concerning whether they should buy or produce electricity, and if they are to buy or sell electricity, what types of contracts are optimum. These types of risk management decisions typically involve futures, forwards, options and other financial derivatives. The price and volatility of electric power are known to play an essential role in determining which of these instruments should be used. However, electricity as a commodity possesses certain special features not shared by other commodities and hence its risk properties are not yet well understood. In this paper we consider and test certain hypotheses about the properties of electricity price using recent market data. We find that electricity prices possess certain volatility and other systematic properties that can be characterized by the type and method of delivery of electricity. These properties can be used by firms in formulating their optimal demand and supply schedules of electric power

  7. Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2008-01-01

    Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719-740] Volatility Impulse Response Function(VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be an indication of market efficiency. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizon. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that extreme events are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy is based on option prices which themselves depend on the volatility level. (authors)

  8. Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility : evidence from Alberta's deregulated markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serletis, A.; Shahmoradi, A.

    2005-01-01

    A number of innovative methods for modelling spot wholesale electricity prices have recently been developed. However, these models have primarily used a univariate time series approach to the analysis of electricity prices. This paper specified and estimated a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period between January 1996 to November 2004 from Alberta's spot power and natural gas markets. The primary objective of the model was to investigate the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices. It was noted that the model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price changes, and also for the separate examination of the effects of the volatility of anticipated and unanticipated changes in natural gas and electricity prices. Section 2 of the paper provided a description of the model used to test for causality between natural gas and electricity price changes, while section 3 discussed the data and presented the empirical results. It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between natural gas and electricity price changes. However, neither anticipated nor unanticipated natural gas price volatility causes electricity price changes. Anticipated electricity price volatility has a causal effect on natural gas. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  9. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Price fluctuations that partially comove with demand are a specific feature inherent to liberalized electricity markets. The regulatory authority in Great Britain, however, believed that sometimes electricity prices were significantly higher than what was expected and, therefore, introduced price-cap regulation and divestment series. In this study, I analyze how the introduced institutional changes and regulatory reforms affected the dynamics of daily electricity prices in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market during 1990–2001. This research finds that the introduction of price-cap regulation did achieve the goal of lowering the price level at the cost of higher price volatility. Later, the first series of divestments is found to be successful at lowering price volatility, which however happens at the cost of a higher price level. Finally, this study also documents that the second series of divestments was more successful at lowering both the price level and volatility. - Author-Highlights: • The impact of regulation on the dynamics of electricity prices is examined. • Price-cap regulation has decreased the level at the cost of higher volatility. • The first series of divestments has reversed the trade-off. • The reversed trade-off is explained as an indication of tacit collusion. • The second series of divestments is found generally successful

  10. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  11. Excessive price reduction and extreme volatility in wind dominant electricity markets; solutions and emerging challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe; Mousavi, Omid Alizadeh

    2013-01-01

    High intermittency in the nature of wind power emphasize conceptual revising in the mechanisms of electricity markets with high wind power penetration levels. This paper introduces overmuch price reduction and high price volatility as two adverse consequences in future wind dominant electricity...... is developed. The paper indicates discriminatory pricing approach can be beneficial in high penetration of wind power because it alleviates high price variations and spikiness in one hand and prevents overmuch price reduction in wind dominant electricity markets on the other hand....... markets. While high price volatility imposes elevated risk levels for both electricity suppliers and consumers, excessive price reduction of electricity is a disincentive for investment in new generation capacity and might jeopardizes system adequacy in long term. A comparative study between marginal...

  12. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  13. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

  14. Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility : evidence from Alberta's deregulated markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, A.; Shahmoradi, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Economics

    2005-03-01

    A number of innovative methods for modelling spot wholesale electricity prices have recently been developed. However, these models have primarily used a univariate time series approach to the analysis of electricity prices. This paper specified and estimated a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period between January 1996 to November 2004 from Alberta's spot power and natural gas markets. The primary objective of the model was to investigate the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices. It was noted that the model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price changes, and also for the separate examination of the effects of the volatility of anticipated and unanticipated changes in natural gas and electricity prices. Section 2 of the paper provided a description of the model used to test for causality between natural gas and electricity price changes, while section 3 discussed the data and presented the empirical results. It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between natural gas and electricity price changes. However, neither anticipated nor unanticipated natural gas price volatility causes electricity price changes. Anticipated electricity price volatility has a causal effect on natural gas. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  15. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  16. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  17. How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auer, Benjamin R.

    2016-01-01

    Based on a dynamic model for the high/low range of electricity prices, this article analyses the effects of Germany's green energy policy on the volatility of the electricity market. Using European Energy Exchange data from 2000 to 2015, we find rather high volatility in the years 2000–2009 but also that the weekly price range has significantly declined in the period following the year 2009. This period is characterised by active regulation under the Energy Industry Law (EnWG), the EU Emissions Trading Directive (ETD) and the Renewable Energy Law (EEG). In contrast to the preceding period, price jumps are smaller and less frequent (especially for day-time hours), implying that current policy measures are effective in promoting renewable energies while simultaneously upholding electricity market stability. This is because the regulations strive towards a more and more flexible and market-oriented structure which allows better integration of renewable energies and supports an efficient alignment of renewable electricity supply with demand. - Highlights: • We estimate a CARR model for German electricity price data. • We augment the model by dummies capturing important regulations. • We find a significant decline in the price range after the year 2009. • This implies effective price stabilisation by German energy policy.

  18. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  19. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  20. The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

    OpenAIRE

    Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

  1. Alberta's electricity forwards market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, D.

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlined how the province of Alberta is starting over with a wholesale electricity market. Wholesalers have retreated back to the real-time market. The Watt-Ex standard market design position paper, issued in October 2002, examines wholesale market issues. The author notes that the biggest constraint to competitive electricity market is the reliance on real-time markets to price a good portion of transactions. Doing so, creates extreme price volatility and ineffective price signals because demand and supply have only a limited ability to respond to prices

  2. Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh

    2011-01-01

    This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

  3. Understanding Financial Market Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. Loosely speaking, volatility is defined as the average magnitude of fluctuations observed in some phenomenon over

  4. Loss aversion and price volatility as determinants of attitude towards and preference for variable price in the Swedish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juliusson, E. Asgeir; Gamble, Amelie; Gaerling, Tommy

    2007-01-01

    The results of a survey of a random sample of 488 Swedish residents showed that a positive attitude towards and preference for a variable price agreement with the incumbent electricity supplier was negatively affected by loss aversion, and a positive attitude also negatively affected by beliefs about price volatility. Although correlated with attitude and preference, age, education, and current choice of a variable price agreement had no independent effects. Income and current electricity costs had no effects. (author)

  5. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  6. Observability of market daily volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

    2016-02-01

    We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.

  7. Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 3 (2015), s. 309-329 ISSN 0195-6574 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA14-24129S Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Asymmetry * Petroleum markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.662, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0438407.pdf

  8. Decoding restricted participation in sequential electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knaut, Andreas; Paschmann, Martin

    2017-06-15

    Restricted participation in sequential markets may cause high price volatility and welfare losses. In this paper we therefore analyze the drivers of restricted participation in the German intraday auction which is a short-term electricity market with quarter-hourly products. Applying a fundamental electricity market model with 15-minute temporal resolution, we identify the lack of sub-hourly market coupling being the most relevant driver of restricted participation. We derive a proxy for price volatility and find that full market coupling may trigger quarter-hourly price volatility to decrease by a factor close to four.

  9. Market Survey Turkey. Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-12-01

    The present market survey presents the Turkish power market and derives business opportunities and prospects for Dutch trade and industry. This market survey has been carried out for the following four, from time to time overlapping, sectors that have been identified by EVD as potential opportunities for Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SME): renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity generation, electricity distribution

  10. Cost Linkages Transmit Volatility Across Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen; Schaur, Georg

    We present and test a model relating a firm's idiosyncratic cost, its exporting status, and the volatilities of its domestic and export sales. In prior models of trade, supply costs for domestic and exports were linear and thus additively separable. We introduce a nonlinear cost function in order...... to link the domestic and export supply costs. This theoretical contribution has two new implications for the exporting firm. First, the demand volatility in the foreign market now directly affects the firm's domestic sales volatility. Second, firms hedge domestic demand volatility with exports. The model...... has several testable predictions. First, larger firms have lower total and domestic sales volatilities. Second, foreign market volatility increases domestic sales volatilities for exporters. Third, exporters allocate output across both markets in order to reduce total sales volatility. We find...

  11. The price of fixed income market volatility

    CERN Document Server

    Mele, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

  12. Volatility Mean Reversion and the Market Price of Volatility Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boswijk, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper analyzes sources of derivative pricing errors in a stochastic volatility model estimated on stock return data. It is shown that such pricing errors may reflect the existence of a market price of volatility risk, but also may be caused by estimation errors due to a slow mean reversion in

  13. Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen

    2018-03-01

    This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

  14. Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2008-01-01

    We provide empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the period 1969 to 1996.

  15. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  16. Unified electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2011-01-01

    A unified European electricity market means a unification and harmonisation of functioning of the national electricity market into one European Market or into one entity. It gives an opportunity to Slovenske elektrarne to open room for their wider activity within Europe where common rules for cross-boarder trade and markets functioning will apply. (author)

  17. Investor attention and FX market volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Goddard, John; Kita, Arben; Wang, Qingwei

    2015-01-01

    We study the relationship between investors’ active attention, measured by a Google search volume index (SVI), and the dynamics of currency prices. Investor attention is correlated with the trading activities of large FX market participants. Investor attention comoves with comtemporaneous FX market volatility and predicts subsequent FX market volatility, after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. In addition, investor attention is related to the currency risk premium. Our results sugge...

  18. Electricity market 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-09-01

    The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment.

  19. Electricity market 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-09-01

    The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment

  20. Electricity market 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

    2000-08-01

    The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment.

  1. Electricity market 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

    2000-08-01

    The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

  2. The electricity market 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. We now have a common Nordic electricity market that includes all of the Nordic countries, with the exception of Iceland. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and increased trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish Energy Agency is the supervisory authority specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of 'The Electricity Market 2003' publication is to meet the need for generalized and easily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. The publication also includes summaries of the information from recent years concerning power generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

  3. Essays on electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rud, Linda

    2009-07-01

    The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

  4. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2009-01-01

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  5. Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

    2009-01-15

    This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

  6. Future Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    The changing face of energy production in Europe necessitates a rethink in the way that electricity markets are structured. The ‘5s’ (Future Electricity Markets) project is a multi-disciplinary project that is looking to challenge the current approach to the design and operation of electricity...

  7. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

    2018-01-01

    In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

  8. Risk management and portfolio optimization in volatile energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Ramly, Z.

    2002-01-01

    Characteristics of competitive markets, especially as they relate to the deregulated electricity market, are explained in terms of pricing, contracting, operation, the types of physical and financial products and services, and procurement decisions. The importance of market monitoring, organization monitoring and analysis, the understanding of market dynamics and the impacts of market data, price volatility and risk, and how they affect and are used in decision making are reviewed in some detail. A variety of proprietary task-specific power tools such as the ZE Data Manager, ZE XML Importer, ZE Market Analyzer, ZE Forward Price Models, ZE Trade Manager, and ZE Credit Risk Manager are described, and their application demonstrated. The inter-relatedness of price volatility and risk is discussed, along with the need to understand, monitor, quantify and deal with it on a continuous basis

  9. Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

  10. Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, L.

    2003-01-01

    This paper quantifies the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and US market to 13 local European equity markets.I develop a shock spillover model that decomposes local unexpected returns into a country speciffic shock, a regional European

  11. The volatility of stock market prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  12. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  13. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  14. Electric glass capturing markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wikman, K.; Wikstroem, T.

    1996-11-01

    Electric glass has found its place on the construction market. In public buildings, electrically heatable windows are becoming the leading option for large glass walls. Studies on detached houses, both new and renovated, show that floor heating combined with electrically heatable windowpanes is the best choice with respect to resident`s comfort. (orig.)

  15. Essays on electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rud, Linda

    2009-07-01

    The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

  16. Electricity marketing and retailing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanlon, C.

    2001-01-01

    ECNG Inc. is a full service provider of independent and objective energy advice and management services to industrial, commercial and institutional end-users of all forms of energy. ECNG manages 10 per cent of the Ontario gas market and expects a 10 per cent share of electricity (14 TWh). ECNG has a balanced portfolio with expertise in both petroleum and electricity sectors. The company has also dealt extensively with retailers, marketers, wholesalers and suppliers on issues regarding deregulation

  17. Exploring heterogeneous market hypothesis using realized volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Isa, Zaidi; Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the heterogeneous market hypothesis using high frequency data. The cascaded heterogeneous trading activities with different time durations are modelled by the heterogeneous autoregressive framework. The empirical study indicated the presence of long memory behaviour and predictability elements in the financial time series which supported heterogeneous market hypothesis. Besides the common sum-of-square intraday realized volatility, we also advocated two power variation realized volatilities in forecast evaluation and risk measurement in order to overcome the possible abrupt jumps during the credit crisis. Finally, the empirical results are used in determining the market risk using the value-at-risk approach. The findings of this study have implications for informationally market efficiency analysis, portfolio strategies and risk managements.

  18. The electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    After a first part proposing predictions for electricity production and consumption for 2016, for the turnovers of electricity suppliers and producers, an indication of important recent important events regarding enterprises belonging to the sector, and a dashboard of the sector activity, an annual report proposes a detailed overview of trends and of the competition context for the electricity market. It identifies the main market opportunities for electricity suppliers, identifies eight determining factors for the sector activity, gives an overview of the sector context evolution between 2004 and 2014 (temperatures, rainfalls, manufacturing industry production, housing and office building stock, projected housing and office building). It analyses the evolution of the sector activity by presenting and commenting various activity indicators and financial performance of electricity producers. It analyses the sector economic structure: evolution of the economic fabric, presentation of various structural characteristics (cross-border exchanges, production capacities per energy source, nuclear plant fleet, thermal plant fleet, location, electricity supply market). It proposes a presentation of the various actors and of their respective market shares, and presentations of groups, electricity suppliers, and electricity producers. It indicates highlights and presents various rankings of the main enterprises in 2014

  19. Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

    OpenAIRE

    Dimpfl, Thomas; Jank, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices’ realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market...

  20. Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2007-08-01

    Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

  1. Stock Market Volatility: Examining North America, Europe and Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Gamini Premaratne; Lakshmi Bala

    2004-01-01

    An understanding of volatility in stock markets is important for determining the cost of capital and for assessing investment and leverage decisions as volatility is synonymous with risk. Substantial changes in volatility of financial markets are capable of having significant negative effects on risk averse investors. Using daily returns from 1992 to 2002, we investigate volatility co-movement between the Singapore stock market and the markets of US, UK, Hong Kong and Japan. In order to gauge...

  2. The European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-01-01

    The creation of a single European market also will have its effects on the power and electricity sector. Expectations tied to this abandonment of borders on the electricity market are different: some hope for a reduction of energy costs, others fear safeguarded supplies to be at risk. It cannot be fully judged at present what the situation will be on a strongly integrated, European power and electricity market, and the brochure in hand is intended to present a first survey of the situation from the perspective of the power industry and energy policy, concentrating on main aspects. The survey is compiled in the form of reprints of journal articles written on this topic by a number of well-known German experts in the field. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  4. Bulgarian electricity market restructuring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganev, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The energy sector in Bulgaria has undergone major restructuring in recent years. It faces the dual challenges of achieving regulatory stability to attract private investors, and creating a functioning competition energy market. As of the EU Accession in 2007, Bulgaria has fully liberalized power and gas markets. The 2003 Energy Law establishes the energy sector legal framework and sets the basis for creation of a transparent and predictable regulatory environment where the key regulatory responsibilities are vested with the State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (SEWRC). The energy sector experienced significant problems in the first half of 2007 due to lost production capacities and regulatory failures on the electricity market. Excess price regulations on the market of electricity supplies to household, coupled with insufficient liberalization of imports and exports, create unfavorable conditions for power producers and large electricity users. The energy regulator has tried to achieve several incompatible targets as of July 1, 2007 for maintaining low electricity prices for households in response to political pressure, low power generation prices amid rising input costs, and market opening in compliance with EU regulations. (author)

  5. Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baumöhl, E.; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, S.; Výrost, T.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 490, č. 1 (2018), s. 1555-1574 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Shock transmission * Stock markets * Granger causality network * Financial crisis * Spatial regression Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.243, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/E/kocenda-0487923.pdf

  6. Stock Market Volatility around National Elections

    OpenAIRE

    Bialkowski, Jedrzej; Gottschalk, Katrin; Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the countryspecific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coalitio...

  7. Transmission : roadway to a competitive electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thon, S. [AltaLink L.P., AB (Canada)

    2002-07-01

    Having a variety of suppliers, marketers and retailers is the key to developing a successful electricity market which is more competitive on pricing, with less price volatility, more innovative customer products and higher levels of customer services. Some areas of Alberta are developing their own power markets with limited capacity to interact. These include Pincher Creek, Empress, Calgary, Edmonton, and Fort McMurray. It was noted that increasing transmission capacity is the key to ensuring a bigger and more competitive electricity market. Transmission constraints only encourage a small number of suppliers to control the market. The current cost of transmission capacity accounts for less than 5 per cent of an average residential customer's bill, but it plays a major role in providing more choice to competitive electricity suppliers. Developing more transmission capacity will create an even more competitive market that benefits both consumers and suppliers. Prices in Alberta have been very volatile in the past couple of years because of supply and demand issues, and there is a need to increase market liquidity. Alberta's Transmission Administrator is looking to expand the transmission network to alleviate constraints and to lower the cost of power generation, regardless of location. These expansions are not expected to affect customers' bills by more than 2 to 3 per cent. Such transmission concerns are being felt all over North America. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the United States also recognizes the link between transmission and creating a competitive electricity market.

  8. Renewables in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ordoudis, Christos; Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    Electricity is nowadays commonly exchanged through electricity markets, designed in a context where dispatchable generators, with non-negligible marginal costs, were dominating. By depending primarily on conventional (fossil, hydro and nuclear) power generation based on marginal pricing...... not designed to take into account the uncertainty brought by the substantial variability and limited predictability associated with stochastic sources, most notably wind power and solar energy. Due to these developments, the need for decision making models able to account for the uncertainty introduced by high...... from renewables, and on the adaption of electricity market designs and power system operations to the aforementioned characteristics of renewables. Additionally, the aim of the research group is supplemented by providing the appropriate frameworks for secure future investments in the field...

  9. Volatility in the California power market: source, methodology and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahlgren, R.W.; Liu, C.-C.; Lawarree, J.

    2001-01-01

    Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for price risk management for electric utilities. Recent methods in California provide examples of lessons that can be applied to other markets worldwide. Value-at-Risk (VAR), a method for quantifying risk exposure in the financial industry, is introduced as a technique that is applicable to quantifying price risk exposure in power systems. The methodology for applying VAR using changes in prices from corresponding hours on previous periods to understand how the hourly VAR entity is exposed when the power system is obligated to serve a load and does not have a contract for supply. The VAR methodology introduced is then applied to a sample company in California that is serving a 100 MW load. Proposed remedies for the problems observed in the competitive California electric power industry are introduced. (Author)

  10. Electricity markets theories and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Electricity Markets: Theories and Applications offers students and practitioners a clear understanding of the fundamental concepts of the economic theories, particularly microeconomic theories, as well as information on some advanced optimization methods of electricity markets. The authors--noted experts in the field--cover the basic drivers for the transformation of the electricity industry in both the United States and around the world and discuss the fundamentals of power system operation, electricity market design and structures, and electricity market operations. The text also explores advanced topics of power system operations and electricity market design and structure including zonal versus nodal pricing, market performance and market power issues, transmission pricing, and the emerging problems electricity markets face in smart grid and micro-grid environments. The authors also examine system planning under the context of electricity market regime. They explain the new ways to solve problems with t...

  11. The electricity market 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2002' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment. The market price of electricity is affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices, availability of water, and the power and energy balances of the various countries. The availability of water in Norway and Sweden has been very good in recent years, which has had a major influence on the price. 1996 was a dry year, which led to a high system price on Nord Pool. The price of electricity then dropped and has remained at a relatively low level up to the year 2001. The price of electricity rose during the spring of 2001 and remained at a higher level also during the summer months. The main reason was that the availability of water was lower than normal in Norway during the early part of the year. This created a higher demand for imported electricity in Norway and caused some apprehension that the year would be dry. The total price of electricity to the end users has not followed the system price development. The total cost of electricity to the end consumers consists of three items, i.e. the price of electricity, the network charges and

  12. The electricity market 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-10-01

    The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2002' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment. The market price of electricity is affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices, availability of water, and the power and energy balances of the various countries. The availability of water in Norway and Sweden has been very good in recent years, which has had a major influence on the price. 1996 was a dry year, which led to a high system price on Nord Pool. The price of electricity then dropped and has remained at a relatively low level up to the year 2001. The price of electricity rose during the spring of 2001 and remained at a higher level also during the summer months. The main reason was that the availability of water was lower than normal in Norway during the early part of the year. This created a higher demand for imported electricity in Norway and caused some apprehension that the year would be dry. The total price of electricity to the end users has not followed the system price development. The total cost of electricity to the end consumers consists of three items, i.e. the price of electricity, the network

  13. Power generation investment in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Most IEA countries are liberalizing their electricity markets, shifting the responsibility for financing new investment in power generation to private investors. No longer able to automatically pass on costs to consumers, and with future prices of electricity uncertain, investors face a much riskier environment for investment in electricity infrastructure. This report looks at how investors have responded to the need to internalize investment risk in power generation. While capital and total costs remain the parameters shaping investment choices, the value of technologies which can be installed quickly and operated flexibly is increasingly appreciated. Investors are also managing risk by greater use of contracting, by acquiring retail businesses, and through mergers with natural gas suppliers. While liberalization was supposed to limit government intervention in the electricity market, volatile electricity prices have put pressure on governments to intervene and limit such prices. This study looks at several cases of volatile prices in IEA countries' electricity markets, and finds that while market prices can be a sufficient incentive for new investment in peak capacity, government intervention into the market to limit prices may undermine such investment

  14. What went wrong in California's electricity market?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikeung Woo

    2001-01-01

    The California electricity market reform promised to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices. Frequent capacity shortages and the ensuing rolling black-outs, price spikes, and large price volatility since Summer 2000 raise a simple but substantive question: what went wrong? The answer to this question will help countries contemplating electricity market reform not to commit similar mistakes. We find the answer by identifying the major factors that have turned the California dream into a nightmare. Such factors include poor market design, market power, sustained demand growth not matched by new capacity, rising marginal cost, and financial insolvency. Proposed remedies include an alternative market settlement process, long-term contract, fast licensing and siting process for new generation and transmission, conservation and energy-efficiency, distributed resources, rate options, and debt restructuring. The California experience suggests that a reversible regulatory reform is a safe alternative to an irreversible market reform. (Author)

  15. Electricity marketing and retailing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilby, M.

    2001-01-01

    Canadian Metering Services provides metrology expertise to power producers and has more than 40 years experience in the industry. The company is privately and nationally accredited in Canada and is an expert in data communications. This power point presentation focused on issues regarding prices and price stability. Graphs were included with the presentation which depicted the profiles of winners and losers in electricity marketing and retailing. The presentation also discussed the benefits of a market surveillance panel, AMV, and MDMA and how to go about choosing them. tabs., figs

  16. Electricity marketing and retailing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilby, M. [Canadian Meter Services, Toronto ON (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    Canadian Metering Services provides metrology expertise to power producers and has more than 40 years experience in the industry. The company is privately and nationally accredited in Canada and is an expert in data communications. This power point presentation focused on issues regarding prices and price stability. Graphs were included with the presentation which depicted the profiles of winners and losers in electricity marketing and retailing. The presentation also discussed the benefits of a market surveillance panel, AMV, and MDMA and how to go about choosing them. tabs., figs.

  17. Markets for utility electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brooks, D.B.

    1990-01-01

    Every analysis of energy use, no matter what the sector or the country, has shown enormous opportunities for cost-effective conservation. Such opportunities should be identified and pursued wherever they appear. Because of its capital intensity and balance-of-payments implications on the supply side, and its potential to improve industrial efficiency and quality of life on the demand side, nowhere are such opportunities more critical than with electricity. Indeed, given the large and unsatisfied demand for electricity in those markets where it can be used efficiently, to ignore those opportunities is to invite ever more serious energy supply and demand problems. (author). 34 refs., 3 tabs., 1 appendix

  18. A novel approach to electricity market education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karjalainen, R.; Viljainen, S.; Partanen, J.

    2007-01-01

    The special characteristics of the competitive Nordic electricity markets were discussed with particular references to the challenges of operating an open power market. Electricity prices in Norway are highly volatile and difficult to estimate because the demand for electricity depends highly on temperature, while the supply of electricity is influenced by water reservoir levels and the price of carbon dioxide allowances. An innovative approach to power engineering education was proposed in an effort to provide power engineering students at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) with skills that are needed for open electricity markets. In addition to the basic power engineering skills, these include an understand of risk management, financing, sales and marketing. The approach was based on developing theoretical and practical teaching methods that are applied in power engineering education at LUT. The practical learning methods played a key role in the development of a Power Exchange Game which was based on the operation of the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. During the game, student teams used their knowledge and acted as portfolio managers of electric utilities where they analyzed and made decisions regarding the operation in the Nordic electricity market. Upon completion of the game, students were expected analyze their own performance in a final report. Most of the students considered the course an effective and interesting way to study the operation of electricity markets. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  19. Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

    2018-02-01

    Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

  20. Overview of Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cochran, Jaquelin M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute; Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Laboratory; Levin, Todd [Argonne National Laboratory

    2018-02-15

    This chapter provides a comprehensive review of four key electricity markets: energy markets (day-ahead and real-time markets); ancillary service markets; financial transmission rights markets; capacity markets. It also discusses how the outcomes of each of these markets may be impacted by the introduction of high penetrations of variable generation. Furthermore, the chapter examines considerations needed to ensure that wholesale market designs are inclusive of emerging technologies, such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.

  1. Housing market volatility in the OECD area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    2014-01-01

    Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash flow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the jajority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia play...... an important role in accounting for housing market volatility. Bivariate cross-country correlations and principal components analyses indicate that part of the return movements have a common factor among the majority of countries. We explain the results in terms of global changes in credit constraints...

  2. Market research for electric utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shippee, G.

    1999-01-01

    Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to

  3. Designing competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, H.P.; Huntington, H.

    1998-01-01

    This volume of papers, originally presented at Stanford in March 1997 in a conference sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, examines several questions about the restructuring and deregulation of electricity markets. Its stated goal is to present guiding principles for evaluating proposals to restructure the US electric power industry. While a collection of essays is perhaps not the best place to lay out guiding principles, the volume does contain a great deal of learning about restructuring. The first essay is a reprint of Paul Joskow's excellent article in the ''Journal of Economic Perspectives''. An essay by William Hogan on the debate between zonal and locational pricing is next. Paul Kleindorfer lists the various governance schemes which other countries that have restructured have used to govern system operation, access to the market for power, and transmission ownership and pricing. One difficulty with the book, as well as the debate in the US, is that it fails to draw adequately upon the international experience. Shmuel Oren lays out the potential areas over which an ISO could have authority. The chapter by Stephen Rassenti and Vernon Smith that bilateral trading should never be allowed, implying that a mandatory pool should be established. A reduction in regulation may increase the incentives for technological innovation. Martin Baughman suggests a number of ways by which costs of transmitting and storing electricity may be reduced. Robert Wilson returns to the volume with a chapter on institutional design. To end the volume, Hung-Po Chao and Stephen Peck present an extension of their earlier work in the ''Journal of Regulatory Economics'' showing how markets for transmission rights would work in a transmission grid of three points

  4. Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rios, J. L.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

  5. Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Ai Jun

    2013-01-01

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

  6. Marketing of electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaerling, A.; Thoegersen, J.

    2001-01-01

    Substituting electric vehicles for traditional ones could reduce local pollution and greenhouse emissions from the transportation system. However, these societal benefits come at high costs to the owner of the EV in terms of price, driving range, availability, loading capacity, speed and acceleration. In addition, the usability of an EV is hampered by the lack of an infrastructure for recharging. Such a product hardly sells itself to potential customers. Besides supportive national policies, skillful marketing is needed to get it accepted and diffused throughout society. This paper outlines a two-phase strategy for the marketing of EVs based on a discussion of current and expected future characteristics of EVs and on a review of research on early adopters. (author)

  7. Slovenian and Spanish electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bregar, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Spanish electricity market has served as a basic model in the construction of the electricity market in Slovenia. However, in the final phase of its development additional solutions were adopted from other European and worldwide electricity markets. The electricity market thus obtained is in some aspects more complex and in others simpler with regard to the original model. This article describes two of the new solutions on the Slovenian electricity market: the introduction of numerous standardized electric energy products (Band, Peak, Off-peak, Hourly power etc.) to be traded on completely separate markets, and the introduction of continuous, real-time type trading on all of them but the hourly market.(author)

  8. Market power and storage in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skaar, Jostein

    2004-05-01

    Market power in liberalised electricity markets dominated by hydropower is analyzed in four chapters. The existing literature on competition in hydropower markets is briefly presented and examined. Chapter 1 discusses the effects of market power in the context of acquisitions in a situation where transmission capacity is constrained. Chapter 2 and 3 elaborate on the issue of competition and market power when water inflow is uncertain, and finally Chapter 4 focuses on the supply function equilibrium model in the context of a hydropower market

  9. The Nordic financial electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-11-15

    NordREG is a cooperation of the Nordic energy regulators. The mission is to actively promote legal and institutional framework and conditions necessary for developing the Nordic and European electricity markets. The financial market is an important market for market participants to mitigate their risks. By providing tools for risk management, the financial market contributes to the efficient functioning of both wholesale and end-user markets. NordREG decided during 2009 to undertake a study on the Nordic financial electricity market. The aim of the report is to consider whether any improvements can be made to further increase the efficiency of the Nordic financial electricity market in order to secure an optimal price setting in the wholesale and the end-user markets

  10. Market research for electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shippee, G.

    1999-12-01

    Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to.

  11. Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

  12. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  13. Bitcoin Market Volatility Analysis Using Grand Canonical Minority Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Ortisi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose to use the Grand Canonical Minority Game (GCMG, a highly simplified financial market model as a model of bitcoin market to show how the lack of an income for “miners”, similar to yield earned by bond holders, could be a structural reason for high volatility of bitcoin price in a reference currency. Coherently with present analysis, the introduction of future contracts on bitcoin would have the effect of reducing the overall market volatility.

  14. Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

  15. Volatility of an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulkarni, V.; Deo, N.

    2006-07-01

    We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE index for the three-year period 2000- 2002. Random matrix analysis is carried out using daily returns of 70 stocks for several time windows of 85 days in 2001 to (i) do a brief comparative analysis with statistics of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations, in time regimes of different volatilities. While a bulk of eigenvalues falls within RMT bounds in all the time periods, we see that the largest (deviating) eigenvalue correlates well with the volatility of the index, the corresponding eigenvector clearly shows a shift in the distribution of its components from volatile to less volatile periods and verifies the qualitative association between participation and volatility (ii) observe that the Inverse participation ratio for the last eigenvector is sensitive to market fluctuations (the two quantities are observed to anti correlate significantly) (iii) set up a variability index, V whose temporal evolution is found to be significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index. MIRAMAR (author)

  16. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  17. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  18. Design choices for electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vries, Laurens

    2007-07-01

    Ten years after the first European Electricity Directive, the goal of creating a single European electricity market has not been reached, despite concerted efforts by the EU and certain member states to continue with the reforms. The policy of subsidiarity for many aspects of market design has as a consequence that member countries are implementing a variety of different market designs and are implementing the reforms at varying speeds. The Florence regulatory process, which was intended to provide a bottom-up approach for coordination and harmonization, has effectively stalled and been replaced by a series of 'mini fora' in which smaller groups of countries work on integrating their markets. At the same time, the European electricity supply industry is facing some significant challenges. This paper investigates the different choices that can be made in the design of electricity markets, how they relate to each other and how they relate to the policy goals. (auth)

  19. Electricity market dynamics: Oligopolistic competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

    2006-01-01

    Presently, electricity markets are characterized by a small number of suppliers with distributed resources. These market suppliers can easily be identified because their geographic location is known. Essentially, two or three of them compete for leading the market whereas the rest of them follow. Hence, it is necessary to study the market structure as ologopolistic competition rather than perfect competition. This paper studies market producer decisions in a dynamic sequential framework by using discrete event system simulation (DESS) also known as discrete control theory. Two-player ologopolistic market structure is presented in this paper. (author)

  20. Electricity marketing and retailing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, E.

    2001-01-01

    This power point presentation outlined the values of wholesale and retail marketing of natural gas to offer choice to all Canadians. The initial wholesale market dealt with physical bilaterals, financial bilaterals and transmission rights, while the mature wholesale market deals with futures contracts, reserve markets, dispatchable loads, swaps, trades and emissions trading. Wholesale prices include debt reduction charges, transmission charges transformation charges, ancillary charges, and independent market operator (IMO) fees. Retail rates offered by local distribution companies (LDC) include distribution charges, adjustments to SSS, and distribution losses. The role of marketers is to provide consumers with what they want, which is annual fixed rates with aggregation and load profiling as well as billing and procurement services

  1. The challenges of the electricity trade in liberalised markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wanzek, S.

    2001-01-01

    As a consequence of the electricity market liberalization a new market emerged allowing electricity to be traded as a commodity. The structure of the electricity companies has to be adopted in the new market model and the regulatory framework has to ensure a level playing field for the participants in the market. Trading has taken on considerable strategic significance for all market participants. The price of electricity is becoming more and more volatile. In this paper the targets, forms and lessons E. ON's electricity trade are discussed. In addition, the impacts of successful trading and obtained experiences are analysed. At the end an outlook for electricity trade in East and South-East Europe is given. (author)

  2. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  3. The economics of electricity markets

    CERN Document Server

    Biggar, Darryl R

    2014-01-01

    With the transition to liberalized electricity markets in many countries, the shift to more environmentally sustainable forms of power generation and increasing penetration of electric vehicles and smart appliances, a fundamental understanding of the economic principles underpinning the electricity industry is vital. Using clarity and precision, the authors successfully explain economic theory of all liberalized electricity market types from a cross-disciplinary engineering and policy perspective. No prior engineering knowledge or economics expertise is assumed in introducing key ideas such as nodal pricing, optimal dispatch and efficient pricing or in extending those models to areas including investment, risk management and the handling of contingencies. Key features: Comprehensively covers the principles of all liberalized electricity market types, including the US, Europe, New Zealand and Australia. Provides up to date coverage of research and policy iss es, including design of financial transmission rig...

  4. Competition in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, W.

    1996-01-01

    This article examines expanded wholesale and retail competition and the effect that they are likely to have on the electric power industry. The author believes that expanded wholesale competition is good and will bring immediate benefit to all electric consumers; however, based on the experience of the natural gas industry and the electric power industry in California and other parts of the world, the author counsels caution in moving toward expanded retail competition

  5. Study on electricity markets in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra FLOREA

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we detail about the components of the wholesale electricity market in Romania: Market for Bilateral Contracts (Central Market with continuous double negotiation of bilateral electric energy contracts (CM - OTC, Centralized Market for bilateral electric energy contracts, Day-Ahead Market (DAM, Inter-Daily Market (IM, Balancing Market (BM, Centralized Market for universal service (CMUS. In addition, for each type of market we generated diagrams with the main business processes.

  6. Reforming the Russian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valladares, Mayra Rodriguez

    1999-08-01

    Contains Executive Summary and Chapters on: Overview; Russian energy markets; Evolution of the power sector; The electricity market; Regulation and proposed reforms; Politics in the power sector; Economics of the power sector; Regional differences; Foreign involvement; Valuation and company management; Conclusions. (Author)

  7. Investigate Volatility Jumps in Chinese Stock Index Future and Spot Markets Based on Realized Volatility

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang qiang

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate Chinese stock index future and spot market's volatility jumps characteristics by using recentlydeveloped jumpstest(Barndorff-Nielsenand Shephard,2004).Thedataisoneyearhigh frequencydatafromthe period19/04/2012 to 19/04/2013. The empirical results show two important points. Firstly, the logarithm of adjusted realized volatility shows a high degree of autocorrelation and folows a normal distribution nearly perfect. These characteristics show a potential high forecast ability. Secondly,thedailyrealizedvolatilityjumpsshowalowdegreeofautocorrealtionbutwithsignificantvolatilityclusters.Ingeneral,thejumps component has a low percentage in realized volatility estimation for both future and spot market. On average, there is one significant jumpswithinevery ten continue trading days.Spotmarkets showshigherdegree of jumps,anda rapidly jumpscharacterises.It implies that jumps may transmission from spot to future market, and spot market dominate future market at some degree.

  8. Adaptive Sniping for Volatile and Stable Continuous Double Auction Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toft, I. E.; Bagnall, A. J.

    This paper introduces a new adaptive sniping agent for the Continuous Double Auction. We begin by analysing the performance of the well known Kaplan sniper in two extremes of market conditions. We generate volatile and stable market conditions using the well known Zero Intelligence-Constrained agent and a new zero-intelligence agent Small Increment (SI). ZI-C agents submit random but profitable bids/offers and cause high volatility in prices and individual trader performance. Our new zero-intelligence agent, SI, makes small random adjustments to the outstanding bid/offer and hence is more cautious than ZI-C. We present results for SI in self-play and then analyse Kaplan in volatile and stable markets. We demonstrate that the non-adaptive Kaplan sniper can be configured to suit either market conditions, but no single configuration is performs well across both market types. We believe that in a dynamic auction environment where current or future market conditions cannot be predicted a viable sniping strategy should adapt its behaviour to suit prevailing market conditions. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Sniper (AS) agent for the CDA. AS traders classify sniping opportunities using a statistical model of market activity and adjust their classification thresholds using a Widrow-Hoff adapted search. Our AS agent requires little configuration, and outperforms the original Kaplan sniper in volatile and stable markets, and in a mixed trader type scenario that includes adaptive strategies from the literature.

  9. Electric power and gas markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    These two days organized by EFE in Paris, dealt with the european market of the gas and the electrical power. The first day developed the actual situation and the tendencies. The french market deregulation, the possibility of a united market and the energy transportation sector are discussed. The second day dealt with the new commercial technologies, the convergence of Gas and Electricity and the competing in a change world, the opportunities of the NTIC (new technologies of the information and communication). (A.L.B.)

  10. Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Conejo, Antonio J.; Madsen, Henrik

    in the electricity market. • The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units. This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced...... such as: • The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production. • The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes. • The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units. • The development of mechanisms to counteract...

  11. Essays on restructured electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Emma Leah

    This dissertation focuses on the performance of restructured electricity markets in the United States. In chapter 1, I study bidder-specific offer caps ("BSOCs") which are used to mitigate market power in three wholesale electricity markets. The price of electricity is determined through multi-unit uniform price auctions and BSOCs impose an upper limit, which is increasing in marginal cost, on each generator's bid. I apply BSOCs in both the uniform and discriminatory price auctions and characterize the equilibria in a two firm model with stochastic demand. BSOCs unambiguously increase expected production efficiency in the uniform price auction and they can increase the expected profit of the generator with the lower cap. Chapter 2, coauthored with Ramteen Sioshansi, Ph.D., compares two types of uniform price auction formats used in wholesale electricity markets, centrally committed markets and self committed markets. In centrally committed markets, generators submit two-part bids consisting of a fixed startup cost and a variable (per MWh) energy cost, and the auctioneer ensures that no generator operates at a loss. Generators in self committed markets must incorporate their startup costs into their one part energy bids. We derive Nash equilibria for both the centrally and self committed electricity markets in a model with two symmetric generators with nonconvex costs and deterministic demand. Using a numerical example, we demonstrate that if the caps on the bid elements are chosen appropriately, the two market designs are equivalent in terms of generator revenues and settlement costs. Regulators and prominent academic experts believe that electric restructuring polices have stifled investment in new generation capacity. In chapter 3 I seek to determine whether these fears are supported by empirical evidence. I examine both total investment in megawatts and the number of new investments across regions that adopted different electric restructuring policies to

  12. Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula-multifractal volatility approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wang; Wei, Yu; Lang, Qiaoqi; Lin, Yu; Liu, Maojuan

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach based on the multifractal volatility method (MFV) to study the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. From recent studies, which reveal that multifractal characteristics exist in both developed and emerging financial markets, according to the econophysics literature we could draw conclusions as follows: Firstly, we estimate volatility using the multifractal volatility method, and find out that the MFV method performs best among other volatility models, such as GARCH-type and realized volatility models. Secondly, we analyze the tail dependence structure between the U.S. and Chinese stock market. The estimated static copula results for the entire period show that the SJC copula performs best, indicating asymmetric characteristics of the tail dependence structure. The estimated dynamic copula results show that the time-varying t copula achieves the best performance, which means the symmetry dynamic t copula is also a good choice, for it is easy to estimate and is able to depict both the upper and lower tail dependence structure. Finally, with the results of the previous two steps, we analyze the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. The empirical results show that the subprime mortgage crisis started in the U.S. and that its stock market has had an obvious contagion effect on the Chinese stock market. Our empirical results should/might be useful for investors allocating their portfolios.

  13. Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Amram (Ron)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important

  14. Electricity marketing and retailing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandre, L.

    2001-01-01

    PremStar Metering Inc. is a division of PremStar Energy Canada. In addition to providing full-service meter and data services PremStar Metering provides collection, validation, analysis and billing services, working closely with the Ontario Energy Board, independent market operator (IMO) and Measurements Canada. This presentation addressed the market power mitigation agreement (MPMA) as well as issues dealing with wholesale competition seen mostly in the power generation sector. It was noted that the goal of the MPMA is to promote competition in the marketplace. Issues regarding the short term revenue limitation and the long term generation limitation of the MPMA were also discussed. figs

  15. Marketing of electric vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gärling, Anita; Thøgersen, John

    In this paper, an outline of a two-phased strategy for the targeted marketing of EVs is developed based, first, on a discussion of the current and expected future characteristics of EVs and, second, on a review of research on the characteristics of early adopters of new products....

  16. New electric power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zorzoli, G.B.

    1992-01-01

    In a trend analysis of methods of energy production and use, this paper cites forecasted significant gains in efficiency through the use of combined cycles for heat and power production, and rapidly falling costs of solar and wind power plants. A technical/economic feasibility analysis is then performed on the future use of electric vehicles in Italy. Here, the paper cites the possible benefits in terms of energy conservation and air pollution abatement. A review is made of current progress in research efforts aimed at reducing electric battery sizing, weight and recharging constraints

  17. Electricity market players subgroup report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borison, A.

    1990-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine competition in the electric power industry from an ''industrial organization'' point of view. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 describes the ''industrial organization'' approach used to analyze the electric power market. Industrial organization emphasizes specific market performance criteria, and the impact of market structure and behavior on performance. Chapter 3 identifies the participants in the electric power market, grouped primarily into regulated producers, unregulated producers, and consumers. Chapter 4 describes the varieties of electric power competition, organized along two dimensions: producer competition and consumer competition. Chapters 5 and 6 identify the issues raised by competition along the two dimensions. These issues include efficiency, equity, quality, and stability. Chapters 7 through 9 describe market structure, behavior and performance in three competitive scenarios: minimum competition, maximum competition, and moderate competition. Market structure, behavior and performance are discussed, and the issues raised in Chapters 5 and 6 are discussed in detail. Chapter 10 provides conclusions about ''winners and losers'' and identifies issues that require further study

  18. Cohesiveness in financial news and its relation to market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Smuc, Tomislav

    2014-05-22

    Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets.

  19. Cohesiveness in Financial News and its Relation to Market Volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Šmuc, Tomislav

    2014-01-01

    Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets. PMID:24849598

  20. Electricity market under change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-11-01

    The electric power sector of the countries and their many problems are described. Statistical data on supply and demand pieces, primary energy use et cetera are given. A brief overview of the economical situation, and a discussion of nuclear power safety in the area are presented. (34 refs., 7 figs., 37 tabs.)

  1. Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobinaite, Viktorija; Juozapaviciene, Aldona; Staniewski, Marcin; Szczepankowski, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this article is to better understand the processes of electricity market price formation in Poland and Lithuania through an analysis of the features (volatility and spikes) of Lithuanian and Polish day-ahead electricity market prices and to assess how acquired electricity price features could affect the achievement of the main goals of the national energy policy. The following indicators have been calculated to determine electricity market price volatility: the oscillation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, an adjusted coefficient of variation, the standard deviation indicator, the daily velocity indicator (based on the overall average price) and the daily velocity indicator (based on the daily average price). Critical values for electricity market price have been calculated to evaluate price spikes. This analysis reveals that electricity market-price volatility is moderate in Poland and high in Lithuania. Electricity price spikes have been an observable phenomenon both in Lithuanian and in Polish day-ahead electricity markets, but they are more common in Lithuania, encompassing 3.15% of the time period analysed in Poland and 4.68% of the time period analysed in Lithuania. Volatile, spiking and increasing electricity prices in day-ahead electricity markets in Lithuania and Poland create preconditions and substantiate the relevance of implementation of the national energy policies and measures. - Highlights: • Moderate and seasonal volatility. • spiking market price and. • stable average price

  2. Electricity costs in liberalized market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkans, J.; Junghans, G.

    2006-01-01

    In the liberalized electricity market the flexible demand determines the operation of power plants. Under market conditions the producers are forced to compete, and their power plants are normally loaded in order of increasing prices. The electricity costs consist of fixed and variable components, and the competition among producers simulates minimization of both the components. Considering the fixed costs (including maintenance, depreciation, capital costs and other permanent costs not depending on production) to be known, the total electricity costs in different operating conditions are based on the economic characteristics and the equipment load of a power plant. The paper describes the method for determination of electricity costs for condensing thermal power plants with permanent steam take-off for regeneration purposes and adjustable steam take-off for the needs of local heat energy consumers. The marginal costs for CHP plants are determined considering a number of different steam take-off from a turbine. At the electricity cost determination, auxiliary services also are taken into account. These can be reduced by adjusting the rotational speed of electric motors. The paper also shows how to determine the electricity costs for gas turbines, combined cycle gas turbines, and nuclear power plants. The position of hydro power plants among other PPs in the free market is also analysed. (authors)

  3. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  4. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeyu Zheng

    Full Text Available Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  5. Asymmetric volatility connectedness on the forex market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 77, č. 1 (2017), s. 39-56 ISSN 0261-5606 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-14179S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : volatility * connectedness * asymmetric effects Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Finance Impact factor: 1.853, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/barunik-0478477.pdf

  6. Volatility Informed Trading in the Options Market: Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Pathak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the trading activity in options market based on information about expected future volatility in spot market. We employ Common Implied Volatility as a measure of expected volatility and options volume and changes in Open Interests as measures of options trading activity. We first test for simultaneous information flow in the two markets using multiple regression technique. Next, we test for information based or hedge based use of options using Trivariate Vector-auto Regression framework. We further consider the classes of options moneyness and the market trends in our analysis to examine if the trader’s preference of options changes with change in description of options intrinsic value and market environment. We use daily closing data of S&P CNX Nifty Index options traded on National Stock Exchange, India. We, for the most part, find negative and significant relationship in contemporaneous regression suggesting active trading by arbitrageurs. A feedback relationship is observed in vector auto regression analysis suggesting that options are traded in India for both information based trading and hedging purposes. We also observe the relationship to be varying when market trends and classes of options moneyness are considered. This indicates that traders are not indifferent in their choice of trading venue when market conditions and factors change. The results of this study are helpful for traders in managing the risk and return of their portfolio based on volatility forecast. This study is distinctive as it examines the scarcely researched area of volatility informed trading in an emerging market set up.

  7. Comparative Study between Two Market Clearing Schemes in Wind Dominant Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

    2015-01-01

    High price volatility and excessive price reduction are introduced as two emerging problems in wind dominant electricity markets. In this study, an agent-based simulation methodology is employed to investigate the impact of two pricing mechanisms, uniform and pay-as-bid, on the mentioned problems....... According to the proposed agent-based approach, electricity market agents (here generation units) learn from their previous bidding experience to obtain maximum financial. A comparative study is then conducted to investigate the impact of mentioned pricing schemes on price volatility and average price level....... It is shown that these two pricing mechanisms cause different bidding behaviours for the generation units. This study suggests that this change in market agent behaviour, modifies the overall price volatility and system average price. The results indicate that a pay-as-bid pricing mechanism can alleviate...

  8. Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios

    2008-01-01

    Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)

  9. THE VOLATILITY OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET – A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mester Ioana Teodora

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, the financial markets have been subject to significant fluctuations of their financial actives. These spectacular movements have revived the interest, in the academic circles and policy makers and regulation and control authorities as well, for the financial market volatility. The analysis of these phenomena is justified by the fact that the stock exchange chocks have significant effects on the financial stability and they can lead to serious consequences in the real economy.

  10. Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bubák, V.; Kočenda, Evžen; Žikeš, F.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 11 (2011), s. 2829-2841 ISSN 0378-4266 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange markets * volatility * spillovers Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.600, year: 2011

  11. The liberalization of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lepage, H.; Boucher, M.

    2001-01-01

    Since the end of the 1980s, the electric industry is changing. Privatization, vertical disintegrations, deregulation, restructuring, market openness are models which cause the world to question the regulated model inspired from natural monopolistic theories that are emerging in many parts of the industrialized world. Why are we witnessing these changes? What makes competitiveness possible in an industry where it was always assumed that market forces could not be relied upon? How do these markets function? On what basis and with what rules? What lessons can be learned from the experiments now taking place? This document updates this complex economic process, which proved irreversible, despite badly thought out deregulation in California and other locales. The authors explain the changes that have taken place in the electricity industry in the United States since the First World War and compares experiences with deregulation in Canada, Europe and Australia. The public monopoly being exercised by Hydro-Quebec in Quebec is examined in detail and avenues for changes in the context of liberalization of electricity markets in North America are discussed. refs., figs

  12. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

    2017-01-01

    The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

  13. Virtual Enterprises, Mobile Markets and Volatile Customers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.P.H. Jaspers (Ferdinand); W. Hulsink (Wim); J.J.M. Theeuwes (Myrte)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractRecently, several new mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) have entered the European mobile telecommunications markets. These service providers do not own a mobile network, but instead they buy capacity from other companies. Because these virtual operators do not possess an

  14. The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, R.; Auer, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

  15. Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

    2016-01-01

    electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

  16. Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erie Febrian

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

  17. Volatility Spillovers in Capesize Forward Freight Agreement Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxing Gong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is to investigate spillovers in the Capesize forward freight agreements (FFAs markets before and after the global financial crisis. The paper chooses four Capesize voyage routes FFAs (C3, C4, C5, and C7, two time-charter routes FFAs (BCIT/C average, BPI T/C average, and spot rates as research subjects, covering the periods 3 January 2006 to 24 December 2015. This paper applies Volatility Spillover Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (VS-MSV model to analyze volatility spillover effects and estimates the parameters via software of Bayesian inference using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS, the deviance information criterion (DIC used for goodness-of-fit model. The results suggest that there are volatility spillover effects in certain Capesize FFAs routes, and the effects from spot rates to FFAs take place before crisis, yet they are bilateral after crisis. With the development of shipping markets, the correlations between FFAs and spot rate are enhanced, and it seems that the effects depend on market information and traders’ behavior. So practitioners could make decisions according to the spillovers.

  18. Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Dexiang; Liu, Jing; Ma, Feng; Chen, Wang

    2017-09-01

    In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.

  19. Capacity competition in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crampes, Claude; Creti, Anna

    2005-01-01

    The article analyzed a two-stage game where capacity constrained electricity generators first choose how much capacity they make available and then compete in a uniform-rice auction. It is studied how capacity withholding can be used strategically to enforce market power and how uniform auctions in the price game change the results of capacity constrained competition models. The uniform auction procedure gives strong incentives to capacity restriction. At equilibrium, however, power shortage never occurs. Though auctions in electricity markets have already been studied by several economists, yet an important feature of spot trading is the capacity availability decision. In fact, for technical reasons, such as equipment maintenance or failures, the installed capacity may not work at maximum operating level and the spot market rules oblige generators to announce which plants they are willing to use and simultaneously their offer prices. Beside technical reasons, the so-called 'capacity declarations' also offer a strategic instrument for firms: by restricting capacity, operators can benefit from scarcity rents. Assessing whether generators withhold capacity is an intriguing issue for real electricity markets, though proving it is a difficult task. Several theoretical papers show that generators are able to keep wholesale prices high as compared to their generation costs. In our model, a generator is not obliged to declare all installed capacity as available, but decides on the amount of MW of electricity that is available. Hence the available capacity is an endogenous variable while the installed one is exogenous. The distinction between installed capacities and 'available' capacities allows to explain clearly whether generators exert market power by declaring unavailable some production units. Although we find multiple sub game perfect equilibria that cannot be eliminated by Pareto-dominance, all the outcomes are characterized by market price at the highest

  20. Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

    We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

  1. Social Welfare implications of demand response programs in competitive electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boisvert, Richard N.; Neenan, Bernard F.

    2003-08-01

    The price volatility exhibited by wholesale electricity markets has stymied the movement to restructure the industry, and may derail it altogether. Market designers argue that prices are superior to regulation for directing long-term investments to the proper location and function, and that price volatility is a natural manifestation of a robustly competitive market. However, episodes of prices that soar to previously unimaginable heights try customers' patience and cause policy makers to reconsider if the prize is worth the consequences.

  2. Wholesale electricity market indicators - December 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    The wholesale electricity markets indicators publication aims to provide general monitoring indicators about: wholesale electricity prices, electricity trade between France and neighboring countries, fuel prices, availability and capacity of power generation means, and grid interconnections

  3. Wholesale electricity markets indicators - September 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-09-01

    The wholesale electricity markets indicators publication aims to provide general monitoring indicators about: wholesale electricity prices, electricity trade between France and neighboring countries, fuel prices, availability and capacity of power generation means, and grid interconnections

  4. The restructuring of the Ontario electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doucet, J.A.

    1999-01-01

    A summary of the current status of the deregulation of the electricity market in Ontario was presented. To follow global deregulation trends, the Ontario Government has embarked on a considerable restructuring of the Ontario electricity market. The monopoly position of Ontario Hydro has been removed by restructuring the provincial utility into two separate companies, GENCO and SERVCO, which will be responsible for the generation and transmission and distribution of electricity, respectively. Other mechanisms put in place to favour a free and competitive market for electricity in the province, such as the arrival on the market of other electricity producers, and the establishment of the independent market operator, are also discussed. 2 tabs

  5. Integrating gas and electric markets and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitmore, C.S.

    1998-01-01

    The issues determining what energy companies must do to compete in an increasingly competitive energy market and what regulators must do to ensure fairness in competition were discussed. The similarities of gas and electric markets, and the factors driving their integration were highlighted. The importance of communications and customer service in the energy market and the nature of market power in the gas and electric industries was described. Three reasons were given why gas/electric mergers will be beneficial: (1) operating efficiency, (2) applying gas experience to electric markets, and (3) opportunity to exercise market power. Potential regulatory problems were also reviewed

  6. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  7. Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taly I

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

  8. The North American electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, I.

    1999-01-01

    The wide ranging changes that will drive the evolution of the North American electricity industry in the future are discussed. Deregulation and the advent of competition in both the United States and Canada are the principal forces that will change the shape of the electricity market, bringing new players and new forms of doing business into the marketplace. A review of the current state of the business shows that especially in the United States where deregulation began earlier than in Canada, independent generators already constitute a multi-billion dollar industry. Non-utility generation capacity is about seven per cent of total U.S. capacity and accounts for about 10 per cent of total U. S. electricity supply, including imports. Examples from other industries clearly show that restructuring and the breakup of vertically integrated industries could be accomplished much faster than anticipated, that a decrease in prices followed rapidly as products became more like commodities, and that decreasing prices fostered product differentiation and competition. Major legislation affecting the electric power industry in the U.S. and Canada (U.S. National Energy Policy Act 1992, Alberta Electric Utilities Act 1995, Ontario Energy Competition Act 1998) decreeing open access transmission, unbundling of generation, transmission and ancillary services, and promoting competition, and the impacts of these legislative actions are also reviewed. The most visible impact is the explosion that can be seen in power marketing and energy trading on a scale unimaginable only a few short years ago, where the total volume of trade may be worth multiples of the value of the underlying commodity. At the same time, there is concern about the reliability of the system, and thus making it imperative to find new ways to manage reliability. Various suggestions are made as to how increased reliability of supply could be achieved by better management, new standards and better enforcement of

  9. Interconnections and market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj

    2012-01-01

    Interconnections can be an effective way to increase competition and improve market integration in concentrated wholesale electricity markets with limited number of participants. This paper examines the potential for interconnections and increasing market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market (SEM). We use a time-varying Kalman filter technique to assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other large, mature and interconnected wholesale electricity markets in Europe including Great Britain (GB). The results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17% indicating potential to improve market integration via increased interconnector capacity. The results indicate that liquidity of wholesale markets might be a crucial factor in the market integration process while our results remain inconclusive in determining whether increased trade of renewables can improve market integration. - Highlights: ► We assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other EU electricity markets. ► Our results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. ► We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17%.

  10. Dynamics of electricity market correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

    2009-06-01

    Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

  11. The international electricity market infrastructure-insight from the nordic electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Zheng; Prljaca, Zerina; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to provide an overview of an international electricity market for the emerging market players to understand and manipulate their roles and relationships in the market by analyzing the former, present, and future Nordic electricity market. The emerging market players...... and their relationships are also discussed in the paper. This paper outlines several suggestions for the future Nordic electricity market development. Furthermore, this paper provides a recommendation for countries interested in participating and developing the cross-national electricity markets with the discussion...... of the historical development of the Nordic electricity market....

  12. Volatility in financial markets: The impact of the global financial crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Valls Ruiz, Natàlia

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on...

  13. Deregulation of Electricity Market and Drivers of Demand for Electrical Energy in Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bojnec Štefan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates deregulation of electricity market focusing on electricity prices and drivers of demand for electrical energy in industry in Slovenia. The patterns in evolution of real electricity price developments and the three main components of the electricity price are calculated: liberalized market share for purchased electricity price, regulated infrastructure share for use of electricity network grids and mandatory state charges in the sale of electricity (duty, excise duty and value-added tax. To calculate the real value of electricity prices, producer price index of industrial commodities for electricity prices in industry is used as deflator and implicit deflator of gross domestic product for the size of the economy. In the empirical econometric part is used regression analysis for the amount electricity consumption in the industry depending on the real gross domestic product, direct and cross-price elasticity for natural gas prices in the industry. The results confirmed volatility in real electricity price developments with their increasing tendency and the increasing share of different taxes and state charges in the electricity prices for industry. Demand for electrical energy in industry is positively associated with gross domestic product and price of natural gas as substitute for electrical energy in industry use, and negatively associated with prices of electrical energy for industry.

  14. Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Atkins

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

  15. Th european market of the electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This document presents the CRE (commission of the Electric power Control) progress report concerning the first july 2000 to the 30 june 2001. Three main subjects are discussed, illustrated by economic data and graphs: the electric power european market, the french market control and the CRE. A special interest is given to the deregulation of the market and its consequences. (A.L.B.)

  16. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti AREKAR

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

  17. Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shapira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

  18. Liquidity in the Dutch wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newbery, D.; Von der Fehr, N.H.; Van Damme, E.

    2003-05-01

    Industry concerns over perceived reductions in the liquidity of the Dutch wholesale electricity market led the DTe to ask the Market Surveillance Committee (MSC) to examine recent developments. This report starts with a generic examination of wholesale power markets and liquidity and its measurement. An overview of the Dutch wholesale electricity market and its constituent segments follows together with a summary of events and opinions connected to liquidity that have been reported in the trade press. Sources of information on market liquidity are then reviewed. Participation in the market is analysed before examining each market segment and this analysis and the earlier sections are then drawn together in conclusions and recommendations

  19. Electric vehicles in imperfect electricity markets: The case of Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schill, Wolf-Peter

    2011-01-01

    We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the impacts of a hypothetical fleet of plug-in electric vehicles on the imperfectly competitive German electricity market. Electric vehicles bring both additional demand and additional storage capacity to the market. We determine the effects on prices, welfare, and electricity generation for various cases with different players in charge of vehicle operations. Vehicle loading increases generator profits, but decreases consumer surplus in the power market. If excess vehicle batteries can be used for storage, welfare results are reversed: generating firms suffer from the price-smoothing effect of additional storage, whereas power consumers benefit despite increasing overall demand. Strategic players tend to under-utilize the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet, which may have negative welfare implications. In contrast, we find a market power-mitigating effect of electric vehicle recharging on oligopolistic generators. Overall, electric vehicles are unlikely to be a relevant source of market power in Germany in the foreseeable future. - Highlights: → We study the effect of electric vehicles on an imperfectly competitive electricity market. → We apply a game-theoretic model to the German market. → There is a market power-mitigating effect of vehicle loading on oligopolistic generating firms. → Consumers benefit from electric vehicles if excess battery capacity can be used for grid storage. → Electric vehicles are unlikely to be a source of market power in Germany in the near future.

  20. Electric power market regulations in UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Federico, G.; Napolano, L.

    2000-01-01

    The wholesale electricity market in UK is being radically reformed, with the abolition of a centralised market (the Pool) and the introduction of a system based around bilateral trading and real-time balancing (NETA), with the aim of increasing competition in the sector. This article analyses the English experience to draw some implications on the relationship between market design, market structure and market power, and to provide some insights for the design of the future Italian market [it

  1. The power to choose. Demand response in liberalized electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Highly volatile electricity prices are becoming a more frequent and unwanted characteristic of modern electricity wholesale markets. But low demand elasticity, mainly the result of a lack of incentives and consumers' inability to control demand, means that consumer behaviour is not reflected in the cost of energy. This study analyses the impact of price-responsive demand and shows how pricing, policy and technology can be used to inform consumer behaviour and choice. Informed choice and market-based valuation of electricity supply will ensure liberalized markets are competitive, efficient, less volatile and able to provide long term security of supply. Significant benefits will occur even if only 5% of customers become responsive to price-incentives and information. And customers will respond to well designed programs, thereby developing a role in ensuring efficient price formulation for electricity. This study analyses the economic, efficiency and security benefits and identifies the changes in electricity tariffs and the network infrastructure needed to achieve greater demand response

  2. Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

  3. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  4. Balancing renewable on intra day electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sokol, R.; Bems, J.

    2012-01-01

    Intra day electricity markets contribute to facilitate transition from conventional sources to renewable which need to be balanced on real-time basic due to the unpredictable nature of weather. This paper describes the way from regional electricity markets to a single pan-european market model which is target model of the European Commission. Single liquid intra day electricity market where market participants can balance their portfolios is prerequisite to a full utilisation of renewable power sources and a solution for some problems experienced by TSOs with loop and parallel flows from neighbouring countries. Integrated German and French intra day electricity market which uses Flexible Intra day Trading Scheme is described in this paper as a market which could be extended further to the CEE region with very poor liquidity of its local intra day markets. (Authors)

  5. Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asgari, Mohammad Hossein; Monsef, Hassan

    2010-01-01

    The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran's electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector's ownership in Iran's power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran's power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007-March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran's electricity market are also mentioned.

  6. Forward Volatility Contract Pricing in the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Magalhães Manteiga

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work we consider the pricing of a special class of volatility derivatives, the so-called variance swaps. The fair value of a variance swap is equal to the expected value of the realized variance of the underlying of the swap during the lifetime of the contract. It is shown how this expected value can be computed by means of an exotic option with logarithmic pay-off. We show how to statically replicate this pay-off in terms of a basket of synthetic vanilla call and put options. We apply this construction to the TNLP4 ticker of BOVESPA and synthetize a basket with pure exposure to volatility using actual market prices.

  7. Electricity market design and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boschi, Federico; Cervigni, Guido

    2005-01-01

    We show that each wholesale electricity market design trades-off between efficiency and liquidity. Efficiency requires that the product traded in the wholesale market closely reflect the physical features of electricity. Liquidity requires standardization of the products that ore traded on the wholesale market. We stress that Iiquidity comes at a cost since an excessive degree of standardization may lead to significant inefficiencies and forge wealth transfers among market participants [it

  8. Electricity market design for the future

    OpenAIRE

    robinson, david; Keay, Malcolm

    2017-01-01

    This paper explains why current electricity markets are not fit for purpose and propose a new market design. Electricity markets operating today were designed for the technical and economic conditions of the 1990's. These conditions have changed substantially, especially with increased penetration of intermittent renewables and the growing potential for distributed energy resources and consumer involvement. Today's markets are incompatible with these trends. They do not provide h...

  9. Market power in electricity markets: Beyond concentration measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borenstein, S.; Bushnell, J.; Knittel, C.R.

    1999-01-01

    The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the US and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures. In this paper, the authors discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and they propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. The authors discuss results from previous studies they have performed, and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. They close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results

  10. Power exchange game in the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyykko, S.; Partanen, J.; Viljainen, S.; Lassila, J.; Honkapuro, S.; Tahvanainen, K.

    2006-01-01

    Since it is not economically reasonable to build parallel electricity networks, in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark, electricity distribution is protected by monopoly. However, electricity production and selling have been opened up to competition by connecting the transmission networks of these countries together, and it is possible to produce electricity where it is cheapest. A common electricity power market, called Nord Pool, has been created where electricity can be bought, sold or used as an exchange product. In order to help students understand the operation of electricity markets and the use of different electricity exchange products, the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University developed a scheme in which the theory can be used in practice. In the scheme, students are given the responsibility to manage the electricity markets of power companies in order analyze, plan and make decisions, which are skills required on the open power markets. The paper provided an introduction to the electricity markets in Nordic countries and discussed Nord Pool and its products. Information about education at the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University of Technology was also presented. The paper also provided details of the power exchange scheme on the electricity markets. 6 refs., 17 figs

  11. New Brunswick electricity market rules : summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-02-01

    The electricity market rules for New Brunswick were reviewed with particular reference to two broad classifications. The first classification is based on the roles and responsibilities of the system operator (SO) in facilitating the Bilateral Contract market, as well as the role of market participants in participating in the Bilateral Contract market. The second classification is based on the roles and responsibilities of each of the SO, market participants and transmitters in maintaining the reliability of the integrated electricity system and ensuring a secure supply of electricity for consumers in New Brunswick. The market rules consist of 10 chapters entitled: (1) introduction to the market rules and administrative rules of general application, (2) market participation and the use of the SO-controlled grid, (3) market administration, (4) technical and connection requirements, testing and commissioning, (5) system reliability, (6) operational requirements, (7) settlement, (8) connection of new or modified facilities, (9) transmission system planning, investment and operation, and (10) definitions and interpretation

  12. Retail competition in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Defeuilley, Christophe

    2009-01-01

    The introduction of competition into retail electricity supply gave rise to great expectations. However, to date, its performance has proven less than stellar, owing primarily to the theoretical concepts underpinning this reform, which draw heavily on the Austrian school. Neither consumers' decision processes nor this sector's technical paradigm were adequately accounted for, leading to an uncorrect estimation of the expected impact of opening to competition. Short- and medium-term prospects for the evolution of retail markets must be reconsidered from the perspective of greater stability: not a generalization of competition, but rather a persistent segmentation between active and inactive clients; not a large and rapid diffusion of radical innovations in commercialisation, with the potential for undermining the incumbents' positions

  13. Retail competition in electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Defeuilley, Christophe [LARSEN and EDF R and D, Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2009-02-15

    The introduction of competition into retail electricity supply gave rise to great expectations. However, to date, its performance has proven less than stellar, owing primarily to the theoretical concepts underpinning this reform, which draw heavily on the Austrian school. Neither consumers' decision processes nor this sector's technical paradigm were adequately accounted for, leading to an uncorrect estimation of the expected impact of opening to competition. Short- and medium-term prospects for the evolution of retail markets must be reconsidered from the perspective of greater stability: not a generalization of competition, but rather a persistent segmentation between active and inactive clients; not a large and rapid diffusion of radical innovations in commercialisation, with the potential for undermining the incumbents' positions. (author)

  14. Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

    2013-01-01

    Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

  15. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

  16. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

  17. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

  18. Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hernandez, M.A.; Gardebroek, C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. The estimation results indicate a higher

  19. The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. McNelis

    1993-01-01

    This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...

  20. Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tian, Jiarong

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major r...

  1. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  2. What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

    2011-01-01

    The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

  3. Entropy: A new measure of stock market volatility?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentes, Sonia R.; Menezes, Rui

    2012-11-01

    When uncertainty dominates understanding stock market volatility is vital. There are a number of reasons for that. On one hand, substantial changes in volatility of financial market returns are capable of having significant negative effects on risk averse investors. In addition, such changes can also impact on consumption patterns, corporate capital investment decisions and macroeconomic variables. Arguably, volatility is one of the most important concepts in the whole finance theory. In the traditional approach this phenomenon has been addressed based on the concept of standard-deviation (or variance) from which all the famous ARCH type models - Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models- depart. In this context, volatility is often used to describe dispersion from an expected value, price or model. The variability of traded prices from their sample mean is only an example. Although as a measure of uncertainty and risk standard-deviation is very popular since it is simple and easy to calculate it has long been recognized that it is not fully satisfactory. The main reason for that lies in the fact that it is severely affected by extreme values. This may suggest that this is not a closed issue. Bearing on the above we might conclude that many other questions might arise while addressing this subject. One of outstanding importance, from which more sophisticated analysis can be carried out, is how to evaluate volatility, after all? If the standard-deviation has some drawbacks shall we still rely on it? Shall we look for an alternative measure? In searching for this shall we consider the insight of other domains of knowledge? In this paper we specifically address if the concept of entropy, originally developed in physics by Clausius in the XIX century, which can constitute an effective alternative. Basically, what we try to understand is, which are the potentialities of entropy compared to the standard deviation. But why entropy? The answer lies on the fact

  4. Electricity market risk management using forward contracts with bilateral options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, T.S.; Yu, C.W.; Wong, K.P.; Zhang, S.H.

    2003-01-01

    Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for risk management arrangements. A new electricity forward contract with bilateral financial options is introduced, which allows both seller and buyer to take advantage of flexibility in generation and consumption to obtain monetary benefits while simultaneously removing the risk of market price fluctuations. The option theory is incorporated to formulate the contract price. The strike prices of options are derived from solving an equilibrium model in which both the buyer and the seller aim to maximise their own profit. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed optional forward contract presents a more equitable and reasonable payoff structure that allows the buyer and seller to earn a larger overall expected benefit, and the contractual arrangement supports efficiency in economic dispatch of electricity production and consumption. The insights obtained from these results will be helpful to participants in the contractual decision-making process. (Author)

  5. Restructuring in the Electricity Markets and Structural Transformation in Turkish Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Electricity markets are changed over from monopolistic to competitive structure. In many countries liberalization process in electricity markets began after 1980. In this study models for restructuring the electricity markets are explained with the natural monopoly and its regulation which is discussed in economic theory over many years. Then structural transformation in Turkish Electricity Market is explained within the legal arrangament framework and in liberalization process of electricity markets current state of Turkey is evaluated. In Turkey, the reform process in electricity market began with the liberalization of production and ıt is contiuned to change the design of the wholesale market. There has been significant progress for energy exchange by the establishment of EPİAŞ with the Electricity Market Law Numbered 6446 in 2013.

  6. PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Karahan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

  7. Risk management in a competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

    2007-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, it is necessary and important to develop an appropriate risk management scheme for trade with full utilization of the multi-market environment in order to maximize participants' benefits and minimize the corresponding risks. Based on the analyses to trading environments and risks in the electricity market, a layered framework of risk management for electric energy trading is proposed in this paper. Simulation results confirmed that trading among multiple markets is helpful to reduce the complete risk, and VaR provides a useful approach to judge whether the formed risk-control scheme is acceptable. (author)

  8. Optimal electricity market for wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holttinen, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper is about electricity market operation when looking from the wind power producers' point of view. The focus in on market time horizons: how many hours there is between the closing and delivering the bids. The case is for the Nordic countries, the Nordpool electricity market and the Danish wind power production. Real data from year 2001 was used to study the benefits of a more flexible market to wind power producer. As a result of reduced regulating market costs from better hourly predictions to the market, wind power producer would gain up to 8% more if the time between market bids and delivery was shortened from the day ahead Elspot market (hourly bids by noon for 12-36 h ahead). An after sales market where surplus or deficit production could be traded 2 h before delivery could benefit the producer almost as much, gaining 7%

  9. The intra- and interstate excess market return for low- and high-volatility level

    OpenAIRE

    Poon, Gary

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a method to estimate the market risk premium that accounts for shifts in investment opportunities by explicitly modeling the volaiility level. This method decomposes the market risk premium into two components., the expected risk premium within the volatility state and risk premium associate with an unexpected change in volatility state. I find that the expected risk premium within the state is negatively related to the market volatility, which is consistent with empirical...

  10. Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Pun Lee

    2004-01-01

    In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases. (author)

  11. Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, P.-L.

    2004-01-01

    In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases

  12. Technology mix configuration in liberalized electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro-Rodriguez, F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the evolution of technology mix in the electricity industry when investment choices are left to private investors. In particular, possible failures and investment biases in recent liberalized electricity markets are presented. In addition, the main regulatory mechanisms used in practice and their effects are analyzed. Finally, this paper explores the government intervention in technology choices in the Spanish electricity market from the beginning of the liberalization process. While some regulatory rules have adequacy complemented the market functioning, others have distorted the electricity price, which is the reference to signal right investments. (Author) 13 refs

  13. Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

  14. Does wind energy mitigate market power in deregulated electricity markets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Moshe, Ori; Rubin, Ofir D.

    2015-01-01

    A rich body of literature suggests that there is an inverse relationship between wind power penetration rate into the electricity market and electricity prices, but it is unclear whether these observations can be generalized. Therefore, in this paper we seek to analytically characterize market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. For this purpose, we expand a recently developed theoretical framework to facilitate flexibility in modeling the structure of the electric industry with respect to the degree of market concentration and diversification in the ownership of wind power capacity. The analytical results and their attendant numerical illustrations indicate that the introduction of wind energy into the market does not always depress electricity prices. Such a drop in electricity prices is likely to occur when the number of firms is large enough or the ownership of wind energy is sufficiently diversified, or most often a combination of the two. Importantly, our study defines the circumstances in which the question of which type of firm invests in wind power capacity is crucial for market prices. - Highlights: • Studies show that electricity prices decrease with increased wind power capacity. • We investigate market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. • Average prices for wind energy are systematically lower than average market prices. • Conventional generation firms may increase market power by investing in wind farms. • Energy policy should seek to diversify the ownership of wind power capacity

  15. Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Jenny; Gaio, Alberto; Pfluger, Benjamin; Ragwitz, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the “missing money problem” in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme. - Highlights: •Renewable support schemes matter regarding the impact on electricity markets. •Market-oriented support schemes reduce the impact on electricity markets. •More flexible electricity systems reduce the need for market participation. •Sliding premiums combine market integration with a productive risk allocation.

  16. The value of electricity storage in energy-only electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, D.; Forcey, T.; Sandiford, M.

    2015-12-01

    Price volatility and the prospect of increasing renewable energy generation have raised interest in the potential opportunities for storage technologies in energy-only electricity markets. In this paper we explore the value of a price-taking storage device in such a market, the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia. Our analysis suggests that under optimal operation, there is little value in having more than six hours of storage in this market. However, the inability to perfectly forecast wholesale prices, particularly extreme price spikes, may warrant some additional storage. We found that storage devices effectively provide a similar service as peak generators (such as Open Cycle Gas Turbines) and are similarly dependent on and exposed to extreme price events, with revenue for a merchant generator highly skewed to a few days of the year. In contrast to previous studies, this results in the round trip efficiency of the storage being relatively insignificant. Financing using hedging strategies similar to a peak generator effectively reduces the variability of revenue and exposure of storage to extreme prices. Our case study demonstrates that storage may have a competitive advantage over other peaking generators on the NEM, due to its ability to earn revenue outside of extreme peak events. As a consequence the outlook for storage options on the NEM is dependent on volatility, in turn dependent on capacity requirements. Further to this, increased integration of renewable energy may both depend on storage and improve the outlook for storage in technologies in electricity markets.

  17. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  18. Financial instruments help producers hedge gas deals in volatile market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawnin, J.N.; Kupiec, S.L.

    1993-01-01

    The Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) of 1978 and more recently the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Order 636 have changed gas marketing from a totally regulated industry to one that responds to free-market forces. The stable but controlled market in which producers once sold gas has become highly competitive and more efficient. Consequently, prices have become more volatile; they respond more quickly than they did before to changes in supply of and demand for natural gas. Prior to deregulation of the natural gas industry, producers had fewer marketing options than they do today. Under a typical gas sales contract, producers sold gas to the nearest pipeline at regulated prices, which remained relatively stable along the interstate distribution chain. The system, however, failed to generate adequate supply of gas. In an effort to realign supply and demand, Congress initiated the deregulation of natural gas with NGPA, which phased out most wellhead price controls. A series of FERC actions culminating in Order 636 extended the process. Now, independent producers can sell gas directly to end users. Under Order 636, interstate pipelines no longer offer merchant services to gas customers. The paper discusses the change in risk profiles, price protection, futures and options, hedged exposure, setting price floors, off-exchange contracts, risk considerations, types of risks, business controls, back office controls, and credit monitoring

  19. Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Priyanka Singh; Brajesh Kumar; Pandey, Ajay

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates interdependence of fifteen world indices including an Indian market index in terms of return and volatility spillover effect. Interdependence of Indian stock market with other fourteen world markets in terms of long run integration, short run dependence (return spillover) and volatility spillover are investigated. These markets are that of are Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and U...

  20. Load As A Reliability Resource in the Restructured Electricity Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kueck, J.D.

    2002-06-10

    Recent electricity price spikes are painful reminders of the value that meaningful demand-side responses could bring to the restructuring US electricity system. Review of the aggregate offers made by suppliers confirms that even a modest increase in demand elasticity could dramatically reduce these extremes in price volatility. There is a strong need for dramatically increased customer participation in these markets to enhance system reliability and reduce price volatility. Indeed, allowing customers to manage their loads in response to system conditions might be thought of as the ultimate reliability resource. Most would agree that meaningful demand-side responses to price are the hallmark of a well-functioning competitive market [1]. Yet, in today's markets for electricity, little or no such response is evident. The reason is simple: customers currently do not experience directly the time-varying costs of their consumption decisions. Consequently, they have no incentive to modify these decisions in ways that might enhance system reliability or improve the efficiency of the markets in which electricity is traded. Increased customer participation is a necessary step in the evolution toward more efficient markets for electricity and ancillary services. This scoping report provides a three-part assessment of the current status of efforts to enhance the ability of customer's load to participate in competitive markets with a specific focus on the role of customer loads in enhancing electricity system reliability. First, this report considers the definitions of electricity-reliability-enhancing ancillary services (Section 2) and a preliminary assessment of the ability of customer's loads to provide these services. Second, is a review a variety of programs in which load has been called on as a system reliability resource (Section 3). These experiences, drawn from both past and current utility and ISO programs, focus on programs triggered by system

  1. Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

    2012-01-01

    In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

  2. Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson, G.S.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented

  3. Stochastic volatility and multi-dimensional modeling in the European energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vos, Linda

    2012-07-01

    In energy prices there is evidence for stochastic volatility. Stochastic volatility has effect on the price of path-dependent options and therefore has to be modeled properly. We introduced a multi-dimensional non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model with leverage which can be used in energy pricing. It captures special features of energy prices like price spikes, mean-reversion, stochastic volatility and inverse leverage. Moreover it allows modeling dependencies between different commodities.The derived forward price dynamics based on this multi-variate spot price model, provides a very flexible structure. It includes cotango, backwardation and hump shape forward curves.Alternatively energy prices could be modeled by a 2-factor model consisting of a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process and a non-stationary trend models by a Levy process. Also this model is able to capture special features like price spikes, mean reversion and the low frequency dynamics in the market. An robust L1-filter is introduced to filter out the states of the CARMA process. When applying to German electricity EEX exchange data an overall negative risk-premium is found. However close to delivery a positive risk-premium is observed.(Author)

  4. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  5. Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

    2006-01-01

    In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

  6. The European green electricity markets in 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meibom, Peter; Skytte, Klaus

    2003-01-01

    The market shares of different electricity producing renewable energy technologies in the green electricity markets in EU, and the size and prices obtained on these markets depends strongly on the market designs and support policies governing the development of these markets. These issues have been analysed with the use of the ADMIRE REBUS model. Costs data for all significant electricity producing renewable energy technologies and data on the sizes of the renewable energy resources in the EU are combined with different national development of the support policies for green electricity in the different EU countries towards a common EU market in 2010. The model simulates the operation of each green electricity market in EU and the interaction between the markets. Model results show that in a harmonized EU wide tradable green certificate system starting from 2010, i.e. in a system without technology-specific support, wind power will be the most competitive technology, but power plants using different types of biomass will also gain a large share of the market. To reach the indicative EU targets for RES-E production in 2010 a TGC price of 5.6 eurocents is necessary in addition to a physical power price of 2.2 eurocents. (au)

  7. Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arciniegas, I.; Barrett, C.; Marathe, A.

    2003-01-01

    The recent California's energy crisis has raised doubts about the benefits of energy deregulation. While it is true that the California electricity market is in turmoil, other electricity markets like the Pennsylvania-NewJersey-Maryland (PJM) are doing fine. This paper assesses the mark of efficiency reached by the electricity markets in California, New York, and PJM. It also compares the degree of efficiency across markets (forward vs. real time) and across time. No significant differences between the California and PJM electricity markets were discovered in the year of California's energy crisis (2000) using the co-integration tests. This research suggests that differences in price behavior between these two markets during 2000 did not arise from differences in efficiency. According to our analysis and measures of efficiency, PJM and California electricity markets are more efficient than the New York market. Also, as these markets become more mature over time, their efficiency level goes up. We also found evidence that a multi-settlement scheduling system leads to higher efficiency. (author)

  8. Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

    CERN Document Server

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

  9. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  10. An options model for electric power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Kanchan; Ramesh, V.C.

    1997-01-01

    The international electric utility industry is undergoing a radical transformation from an essentially regulated and monopolistic industry to an industry made uncertain with impending deregulation and the advent of competitive forces. This paper investigates the development of an options market for bulk power trading in a market setup while considering power system planning and operational constraints and/or requirements. In so doing it considers the different market based financial derivative instruments while can be used to trade electrical power in bulk and examines how established tools such as Optimal Power Flow (OPF) may be applied in helping to develop a price for bulk power transactions under a market based setup. (Author)

  11. In search of the perfect electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, L.; Correlje, A.

    2008-01-01

    Nearly twelve years after the first electricity directive (Directive 96/92/EC), the European electricity sector is still fragmented along national borders. Within national or regional markets, competition has generally not developed as much as had been expected. The authors argue that progress is possible, but that we also have to learn to accept the inevitable imperfections of the integration process. Two questions are addressed in this article: (1) Why is every market designed in a different way?; and (2) How can the integration of European power markets be furthered, given the current diversity of market designs?

  12. Asynchronous decentralized method for interconnected electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Anni; Joo, Sung-Kwan; Song, Kyung-Bin; Kim, Jin-Ho; Lee, Kisung

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an asynchronous decentralized method to solve the optimization problem of interconnected electricity markets. The proposed method decomposes the optimization problem of combined electricity markets into individual optimization problems. The impact of neighboring markets' information is included in the objective function of the individual market optimization problem by the standard Lagrangian relaxation method. Most decentralized optimization methods use synchronous models of communication to exchange updated market information among markets during the iterative process. In this paper, however, the solutions of the individual optimization problems are coordinated through an asynchronous communication model until they converge to the global optimal solution of combined markets. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed asynchronous method over the existing synchronous methods. (author)

  13. Use of demand response in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Sri Niwas; Østergaard, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    Demand response (DR) can provide sufficient measure, if implemented successfully, to provide economic, secure and stable supply to the customers even under the variability of the generated output from renewable energy source such as wind and solar. However, there are several issues to be analyzed...... before DR implementation. This paper critically examines the present practices of the DR in the various electricity markets existing in the world including Europe. The prospect of DR in various market levels such as day-ahead (spot) market, hour-ahead market, real time/regulating market and ancillary...... market is analyzed. This paper also addresses the key issues and challenges in the implementation of DR in the electricity markets....

  14. Combined scheduling of electricity and heat in a microgrid with volatile wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Lizhong; Yang, Guang Ya; Xu, Zhao

    2011-01-01

    An optimization model is developed for scheduling electricity and heat production in a microgrid under a day-ahead market environment considering the operation constraints and the volatility of wind power generation. The model optimizes the total operation costs from energy and heating consumption...... into a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Numerical simulations present the efficacy of the proposed model for day-ahead scheduling of a microgrid with wind penetration under the deregulated environment. © 2011 State Grid Electrtic Resarch Institute Press....

  15. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  16. Electricity market readiness plan : Ontario Energy Board

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-03-01

    This document informs electric power market participants of the Ontario Energy Board's newly developed market readiness plan and target timelines that local distribution companies (LDCs) must meet for retail marketing. The Ontario Energy Board's plan incorporates relevant independent market operator (IMO)-administered market milestones with retail market readiness targeted for September 2001. The market readiness framework involves a self-certification process for LDCs by August 10, 2001, through which the Board will be able to monitor progress and assess the feasibility of meeting the target timelines. For retail market readiness, all LDCs will have to calculate settlement costs, produce unbundled bills, provide standard supply service, change suppliers and accommodate retail transactions. LDCs must be either authorized participants in the IMO-administered market or become retail customers of their host LDC. Unbundled bills will include itemized charges for energy price, transmission, distribution and debt retirement charge. 1 tab., 1 fig

  17. Gas and electricity 2001: new market mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    This document brings together 15 testimonies of experts about the opening of gas and electricity markets: 1 - from the opening of the electricity market to the future deregulation of the gas market: what are the new rules of the world energy market? Gaz de France's strategy in front of the opening of the market. The problem of the gas supplies in Europe in the framework of the opening of markets; 2 - Is the access to the network the same for everybody: the regulation authority as catalyst of the electricity market; the technical network constraints and the conditions of access to the transport and interconnections; the regulatory and contractual framework of the access to interconnections; how a foreign producer can warrant the supply of electricity in France; 3 - which global offer and which new services to be supplied to clients today: what is the global offer of a new actor? Power supply and associated services: what is the global offer of new actors to answer the client's needs? 4 - What are the expectations and choices of consumers in a de-regulated environment; definitions and implementations of new European strategies of purchase: how the purchaser work has changed? 5 - What is the place of the energy trade: the implementation of the electricity stock exchange in France: Powernext. How to manage risks associated to a gas/electricity assets portfolio? (J.S.)

  18. Determining market boundaries in the electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godde, Anne

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to develop a method of determining market boundaries in preparation of identifying all the competitive forces which a company in the electricity sector must address and deciding on this basis whether it has a dominant position in the market. The study focused in particular on current developments in the German electricity sector, this being the only way to permit a demarcation that accurately reflects the true economic situation. First the question was addressed whether a determination of market boundaries is at all necessary for performing a competitive analysis and in what specific constellations they could play a role. Giving due consideration to the special features of the electricity sector the most preferable market demarcation methods were applied to individual areas of the electricity sector that are of competitive relevance. Efforts were directed at arriving at market boundaries most conducive to the goal of identifying those competitive forces which a company in the electricity sector must address. For this purpose a critical assessment was undertaken of established market demarcation practices in Europe and Germany in order to determine whether ''classical'' market demarcation methods could be applied or whether modifications were needed on account of special features of market structure. The author also describes and discusses alternatives to the established market demarcation methods. She also elucidates methods of determining the boundaries of markets that have emerged as a result of recent developments in the electricity sector, for example through the growth of electricity production from renewable resources, or which are still in the process of formation.

  19. Competition policies on the electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubois, U.

    2008-01-01

    This article puts forward a critical analysis of European competition instruments and practices in terms of market power on the electricity wholesale markets. Due to the speck nature of electrical activities, competition policies come up against difficulties of market power identification at first, since there is no model for detecting perfectly the potential or real exertion of market power in this sector. What is more, since competition authorities rely on specific intervention methods, their ability to limit the exertion of market power is relatively low. For a large number of their interventions involves controlling concentrations. In the light of this double phenomenon, this article discusses some recent developments of European competition policies on the electricity wholesale markets. The sector inquiry of 2007 seems to mark the start of a new competition policy practice in the electricity sector. The initiative and decision-making power now seem to be nesting mainly at a European level where action is not only to be found in terms of controlling mergers and acquisitions, but also stretches to involve an in-depth evaluation of the way the different markets work. This action is manifested in decisions to investigate some companies as well as legislative proposals in the framework of the third package. Thus we are moving towards a greater monitoring of electricity markets using more formal supervision instruments and on a more continuous basis. (author)

  20. Stock Price Informativeness and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Jingrong Lin; Khondkar Karim; Clairmont Carter

    2014-01-01

    This study attempts to address two research questions on the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness. First, whether idiosyncratic return volatility is a valid proxy for stock price informativeness in emerging markets, and if it is, whether there exists a monotonic relationship between the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness throughout the whole sample. We find that the idiosyncratic return volatility reflects the stock price informativeness...

  1. Assessing the options for a competitive electricity market in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tishler, A.; Newman, J.; Spekterman, I.; Woo, C.K.

    2008-01-01

    In July 2006, the Israeli government affirmed its 2003 decision to reform the Israeli electricity industry, currently dominated by the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC), a government-owned vertically integrated electric utility. The reform calls for the deregulation and privatization of the generation and customer service segments of the industry, leaving transmission and distribution (T and D) regulated to provide open access to all end-users. This paper projects the performance of the post-reform market structure for the period 2007-2030 relative to that of the status quo. The post-reform generation market's prices are determined according to the Cournot conjecture. To mitigate excessive price volatility and surges, the generation market also includes a firm that is contracted to make peak electricity sales to customers at a pre-determined price, only when the competitive price exceeds the pre-determined level. Our results show (a) the post-reform retail prices for end-users will exceed those under the status quo; (b) the post-reform profits may not be sufficient to keep firms operating combined cycle generation units financially viable; and (c) the net benefit from deregulating the electricity sector in Israel will most likely be negative. (author)

  2. Hedging with futures: an application of GARCH to european electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    G. Zanotti; G. Gabbi; M. Geranio

    2009-01-01

    European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio esti...

  3. Electricity market design of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peek, Markus; Diels, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The transformation of the power generation system, to one in which renewable energies will form a cornerstone, will change the requirements for all market actors. To achieve the goals of the German Energiewende ('energy transition'), greater flexibility in production and consumption is of particular importance. Flexibility enables the cost-effective integration of the fluctuating actual feed-in of renewable energies. On the one hand, the technical options for reducing existing technical inflexibilities are given to a considerable extent. On the other hand, analyses of the transnational compensation effects of load and renewable energy supply (RES) feed-in show that flexibility requirements can be reduced significantly in a common electricity market. Electricity markets in which there is open technological competition are an appropriate instrument for the flexibilization of the power supply system. In the short term, the mechanisms of competitive electricity markets ensure an efficient synchronization of supply and demand. Over the medium and long term, the market creates efficient incentives to adapt the generation system and the behavior of consumers to future needs, resulting from the changes in the residual load structure. But at the same time, in recent years the occurrence of negative electricity prices in situations with significantly positive residual loads show that flexibility restraints exist. The causes of these restraints are at least partly due to the market design or the regulatory framework. On the one hand, there are barriers to market entry and, on the other hand, price signals from the electricity markets do not reach all market actors or reach them distortedly. To enable the cost effective development of the different flexibility options in an open technology competition, restraints resulting from market design and the regulatory framework (e. g. in the framework of grid charges, the market and product design of control power markets

  4. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  5. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  6. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  7. Grid Integration of Electric Vehicles in Open Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    congestion management scenario within electric distribution networks •optimal EV charging management with the fleet operator concept and smart charging management •EV battery technology, modelling and tests •the use of EVs for balancing power fluctuations from renewable energy sources, looking at power......Presenting the policy drivers, benefits and challenges for grid integration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the open electricity market environment, this book provides a comprehensive overview of existing electricity markets and demonstrates how EVs are integrated into these different markets...... of the technologies for EV integration, this volume is informative for research professors and graduate students in power systems; it will also appeal to EV manufacturers, regulators, EV market professionals, energy providers and traders, mobility providers, EV charging station companies, and policy makers....

  8. Electricity regulation and electricity market reforms in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngan, H.W.

    2010-01-01

    The electricity industry of China has been in a process of reforms since the 1980s. This paper gives a review on the three main stages of reforms in China so as to trace out key features of various reform measures including those for power investment financing, the separation between government and power enterprises, and the division between power generation firms and power grids. The findings suggest that further regulatory change in China's electricity market reform is necessary when integration of the electricity markets and increased competition are paving the way ahead for a market-oriented structure. Prospective electricity regulation in the form of a strong legal system and effective institutions that protect market competition and promote appropriate incentives for efficiency are suggested in the paper. (author)

  9. Pricing of electricity tariffs in competitive markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.; Raesaenen, M.

    1999-01-01

    In many countries electricity supply business has been opened for competition. In this paper we analyze the problem of pricing of electricity tariffs in these open markets, when both the customers' electricity consumption and the market price are stochastic processes. Specifically, we focus on regular tariff contracts which do not have explicit amounts of consumption units defined in the contracts. Therefore the valuation process of these contracts differs from the valuation of electricity futures and options. The results show that the more there is uncertainty about the customer's consumption, the higher the fixed charge of the tariff contract should be. Finally, we analyze the indication of our results to the different methods for estimating the customer's consumption in the competitive markets. Since the consumption uncertainties enter into the tariff prices, the analysis indicates that the deterministic standard load curves do not provide efficient methods for evaluating the customers' consumption in competitive markets

  10. Environmental policies in competitive electricity markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langestraat, R.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis we model and analyze several environmental policies in an existing mathematical representation of a perfectly competitive electricity market. We contribute to the literature by theoretically and numerically establishing a number of effects of environmental policies on investment

  11. Electricity market opening and electricity generation system's expansion in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosnjek, Z.; Vidmar, M.; Bregar, Z.

    2000-01-01

    Slovenia is rapidly adopting the European Union (EU) legislation to make itself ready to be admitted the fifteen EU member countries. In the area of energy or electricity supply industry, Slovenia has consequently enforced the Energy law, which in its essence follows the idea of the Directive 96/92/EC. Globally, the Directive defines common rules of the internal electricity market within EU. Any EU member country is responsible for assuring a competitive electricity market and implementing corresponding instruments as foreseen by the Directive. The share of the national market opening is calculated on the basis of eligible customers' consumption versus the overall consumption in a particular member country. Also, the Directive defines the rate of the electricity market opening. It is interesting to note that the EU member countries have been opening their national electricity markets at a greater speed than specified by the Directive. The overall Slovenian Electricity Supply Industry shall have to adapt itself to new imperatives, whereby the greatest changes will by all means take place in the area of electricity generation. As the reaction of eligible domestic market customers is quite unpredictable, the direct electricity import from foreign countries can only be estimated on a variant basis. EU countries that have deregulated their electricity market have been, step by step, gaining valuable experiences. The majority of them show a considerable pressure on having prices of the EPS generation sector reduced. A similar development can by all means be expected in Slovenia, too. it is expected that the major burden of the electricity market liberalisation and electric power interconnecting within EU will be carried by the EPS generation sector. The analyses of developed variants show that the burden, imposed by the transition onto the market economy, will be predominantly carried by the coal fired electricity supply industry. Further development of electricity

  12. Generation capacity adequacy in interdependent electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cepeda, Mauricio; Finon, Dominique

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the practical problems related to long-term security of supply in regional electricity markets with transmission constraints. Differences between regulatory policies and market designs in terms of generation adequacy policies may distort the normal functioning of the neighboring markets, as well as the reliability of supply. We test the effect of heterogeneous regulatory design between two interdependent markets: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. We rely on a long-term market simulation model in system dynamics that characterizes expansion decision in a competitive regime. The results show that differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. We examine both the short and long terms effect, and how free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other. The main finding is that the lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. - Research highlights: → We model the long-term dynamic of two interdependent markets. → We examine both the short and long terms effect of heterogeneous regulatory design: energy-only market, price-capped market without capacity mechanisms and price-capped markets with forward capacity contracts obligation. → Differences in market designs affect both price and reliability of supply in the two markets. → Lack of harmonization between local markets in policies to ensure capacity adequacy may lead to undesirable side effects. → Free-riding may occur where capacity adequacy policies are adopted in one market but not the other.

  13. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  14. Fostering renewable electricity markets in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingate, M.; Hamrin, J.; Kvale, L.; Alatorre, C.

    2007-04-01

    This paper provided an overview of key market demand and supply drivers for the renewable electricity in Canada, the United States and Mexico. The aim of the paper was to assist North American governments in supporting the development of renewable electricity by addressing barriers that currently contribute to higher costs as well as challenges related to policy implementation. The paper outlined regulatory mandates and discussed issues related to voluntary purchases, and financial incentives. Current policy frameworks for renewable electricity were also examined. Opportunities for developing the renewable electricity market North America were explored. Wind power environmental standards were reviewed. Various green pricing schemes were discussed. The paper also included recommendations for the current electricity market as well as for members of the North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation. 84 refs., 4 tabs., 7 figs

  15. Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

  16. Independent regulatory authorities in European electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Anders; Pedersen, Lene Holm; Sorensen, Eva Moll; Olsen, Ole Jess

    2006-01-01

    Liberalisation of the electricity market has taken place in most European countries within the last decade. It is considered a precondition of successful liberalisation to establish so-called independent regulatory authorities. In this article, we compare the status and practice of them in 16 European countries, and discuss the relationship between the organisation of the regulation and the market outcome

  17. Electric utilities strategies in final energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianchi, A.

    2000-01-01

    In rapidly changing markets, electric utilities pay growing attention to customers and service. They are aware that competition needs strategies capable of transforming and strengthening the privileged position resulting from the knowledge of the market. Moreover, this aspect is the link between different value chains to describe new multi utility approaches [it

  18. Essays on wholesale auctions in deregulated electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltaduonis, Rimvydas

    2007-12-01

    The early experience in the restructured electric power markets raised several issues, including price spikes, inefficiency, security, and the overall relationship of market clearing prices to generation costs. Unsatisfactory outcomes in these markets are thought to have resulted in part from strategic generator behaviors encouraged by inappropriate market design features. In this dissertation, I examine the performance of three auction mechanisms for wholesale power markets - Offer Cost Minimization auction, Payment Cost Minimization auction and Simple-Offer auction - when electricity suppliers act strategically. A Payment Cost Minimization auction has been proposed as an alternative to the traditional Offer Cost Minimization auction with the intention to solve the problem of inflated wholesale electricity prices. Efficiency concerns for this proposal were voiced due to insights predicated on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using a game theoretic approach and an experimental method, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices that they are willing to sell at, but also the start-up fees, which are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that the complex structure of the offers leaves considerable room for strategic behavior, which consequently leads to anti-competitive and inefficient market outcomes. In the last chapter of my dissertation, I use laboratory experiments to contrast the performance of two complex-offer auctions against the performance of a simple-offer auction, in which the sellers have to recover all their generation costs - fixed and variable - through a uniform market-clearing price. I find that a simple-offer auction significantly reduces consumer prices and lowers price volatility. It mitigates anti-competitive effects

  19. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  20. Electricity Market Manipulation: How Behavioral Modeling Can Help Market Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallo, Giulia [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-12-18

    The question of how to best design electricity markets to integrate variable and uncertain renewable energy resources is becoming increasingly important as more renewable energy is added to electric power systems. Current markets were designed based on a set of assumptions that are not always valid in scenarios of high penetrations of renewables. In a future where renewables might have a larger impact on market mechanisms as well as financial outcomes, there is a need for modeling tools and power system modeling software that can provide policy makers and industry actors with more realistic representations of wholesale markets. One option includes using agent-based modeling frameworks. This paper discusses how key elements of current and future wholesale power markets can be modeled using an agent-based approach and how this approach may become a useful paradigm that researchers can employ when studying and planning for power systems of the future.

  1. Defining electricity markets. An arbitrage cost approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleit, A.N.

    2001-01-01

    Market definition is a crucial component of antitrust policy. There is, however, no universally accepted method of carrying out market definition. While several approaches have been presented in the literature, each has its share of drawbacks. This paper suggests that a modeling technique based upon the theory of arbitrage is well suited to answering this question. After the empirical approach is presented, it is used to calculate antitrust market definitions between electricity hubs in the American West

  2. Restructuring Electricity Markets when Demand is Uncertain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette; Buehler, Stefan

    2006-01-01

    We examine the effects of reorganizing electricity markets on capacity investments, retail prices and welfare when demand is uncertain. We study the following market configurations: (i) integrated monopoly, (ii) integrated duopoly with wholesale trade, and (iii) separated duopoly with wholesale...... trade. Assuming that wholesale prices can react to changes in retail prices (but not vice versa), we find that generators install sufficient capacity to serve retail demand in each market configuration, thus avoiding blackouts. Furthermore, aggregate capacity levels and retail prices...

  3. Opportunities for electricity storage in deregulating markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graves, F.; Jenkin, T.; Murphy, D.

    1999-01-01

    This article addresses the value of electricity storage and its ability to take advantage of emerging energy arbitrage opportunities: buying power when it is inexpensive, and reselling it at a higher price. The focus of this article is on electricity markets and the opportunities they present for a merchant storage device, rather than on storage technologies themselves. There are a number of existing and emerging storage technologies: pumped hydro, various batteries, compressed air energy storage (CAES), superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES), flywheels--even conventional hydro has storage-like properties. However, all these technologies operated on the same basic principle of exploiting short-term differentials in electricity prices: buy low, sell high (a strategy that is actually meaningful in electricity markets, unlike in financial markets). The object of this article is to develop and demonstrate a means for assessing the potential value of storage in different electricity markets, rather than to attempt to assess the prospects of a particular technology. The approach taken here is to look at price data from a number of actual electricity markets to determine what opportunities they might offer to a generic storage device. A storage technology is described here by its basic performance parameters--charge and generate capacity, energy inventory limits, and efficiency--which are sufficient to assess the basic economic potential of storage in a given market. The authors look primarily at US markets, but also compare and contrast findings with the situation in foreign markets in the U.K., Norway, Canada, and Australia, and discuss how market structure can influence the value of storage. Moreover, the authors use empirically observed relationships between hourly and 5 x 16 blocked prices to infer a rule for adjusting the value of storage assets in regions where only blocked price information is available

  4. The electricity markets around the Baltic Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-12-01

    A thorough description of the electric power markets in the countries surrounding the Baltic sea is given in this book. Environmental problems and regulations and nuclear power are surveyed. Factors that may affect an expanded trade of electricity between the countries are analyzed

  5. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  6. A Big Data Approach to Analyzing Market Volatility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Kesheng [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bethel, E. Wes [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Gu, Ming [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Leinweber, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Ruebel, Oliver [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2013-06-05

    Understanding the microstructure of the financial market requires the processing of a vast amount of data related to individual trades, and sometimes even multiple levels of quotes. Analyzing such a large volume of data requires tremendous computing power that is not easily available to financial academics and regulators. Fortunately, public funded High Performance Computing (HPC) power is widely available at the National Laboratories in the US. In this paper we demonstrate that the HPC resource and the techniques for data-intensive sciences can be used to greatly accelerate the computation of an early warning indicator called Volume-synchronized Probability of Informed trading (VPIN). The test data used in this study contains five and a half year's worth of trading data for about 100 most liquid futures contracts, includes about 3 billion trades, and takes 140GB as text files. By using (1) a more efficient file format for storing the trading records, (2) more effective data structures and algorithms, and (3) parallelizing the computations, we are able to explore 16,000 different ways of computing VPIN in less than 20 hours on a 32-core IBM DataPlex machine. Our test demonstrates that a modest computer is sufficient to monitor a vast number of trading activities in real-time – an ability that could be valuable to regulators. Our test results also confirm that VPIN is a strong predictor of liquidity-induced volatility. With appropriate parameter choices, the false positive rates are about 7% averaged over all the futures contracts in the test data set. More specifically, when VPIN values rise above a threshold (CDF > 0.99), the volatility in the subsequent time windows is higher than the average in 93% of the cases.

  7. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  8. Market study on the Mexican market for electrical distribution equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    A brief historical survey of the development of the Mexican electric power sector is presented, along with an overview of the state of the Mexican economy since the late 1980s and the present characteristics of the Mexican electricity sector. The Mexican market for electric power generation and distribution equipment is then assessed, from the perspective of Canadian suppliers and manufacturers intending to enter this market. Projected consumption of electrical generation and distribution equipment in Mexico for 1994 is estimated at US$1,035,600,000 ($719.4 million in production, $356.9 million in imports, and $40.7 million in exports). This market increased 12.3% in 1990, and since power demand in Mexico has been growing faster than growth in capacity, it is possible that investments in the electricity sector will grow at faster rates. Items which are traditionally imported include nuclear reactors and related equipment, boilers, turbines, power breakers, valves, coal and ash handling equipment, relays, automatic controls, and chemical treatment equipment. The USA has the greatest share of the import market with 35%, followed by Japan (22%), Switzerland (18%), and Germany (13%). Canadian exports have concentrated on distribution equipment and only totalled $1.7 million in 1990. Electricity is distributed to some 16.6 million users over a national interconnected system having total installed capacity of 30,513 MW in 1991. There are plans to increase capacity by 9.7 GW by 1994 and another 37.4-47.8 GW between 1995 and 2010. Projections of electricity needs by region are listed along with the new power plants targeted for investment. Market liberalization and lowering of tariffs have made the Mexican market more accessible to exporters. 8 tabs

  9. Volatility of Stock Markets (an Analysis of South Asian and G8 Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to make an analysis of volatility of stock markets between South Asian Stock Markets and Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries. This study important for the investors whose want to invest in stock markets. This study helps investors to determine what stock market is more volatile. To make the analysis three South Asian stock markets and Group of Eight countries stock markets are selected. South Asian stock markets indexes include KSE 100 (Pakistan, SENSEX (India, ASPI (Sri Lanka, CAC 40 (France, DAX (Germany, S &P / TSX Composite (Canada, FTSE MIB (Italy, RTS (Russia, Nikkei 225 (Japan, S & P 500 (USA and FTSE 100 (UK. Data is collected from the period of January 1st 2005 to August 31st 2015. ARCH and GARCH model is used to analyze the volatility of South Asian Stock Markets and stock markets of Group of Eight Countries. The findings show that South Asian Stock Markets are less volatile while Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries are high volatile. This study is useful for investment institutions and portfolio managers because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data.

  10. Electricity pricing and load dispatching in deregulated electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geerli; Niioka, S.; Yokoyama, R.

    2003-01-01

    A rapid move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly alter the structure of electricity pricing and system operation. In this paper, we consider a game of negotiation in the electricity market, involving electric utilities, independent power producers (IPPs) and large-scale customers. We analyze the two-level game strategies for the negotiation process between utilities, IPPs and customers. These have been previously recognized as a way to come up with a rational decision for competitive markets, in which players intend to maximize their own profits. The derived operation rules based on competition can be viewed as an extension of the conventional equal incremental cost method for the deregulated power system. The proposed approach was applied to several systems to verify its effectiveness. (Author)

  11. Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    diffusion models in marketing research use fairly simple demand models. In this paper we discuss the problem of predicting market shares for new products and suggest a method that combines advanced choice models with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to gain......Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models...... are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market over time through a diffusion process. However, typical...

  12. Lithuanian way of reforms to electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacauskas, A.

    2002-01-01

    Lithuania has inherited a structure of the energy industry, which originally has been developed not for the country, as an independent state, but according to the provisions of the former USSR energy policy, covering energy demand of whole region, including the Baltic countries, Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia. The Lithuanian power system is interconnected by high voltage power lines and operates in parallel with Latvian, Estonian, Russian and Belarus power systems. During twelve years of independence the power sector passed significant changes from a vertically integrated monopoly to some separate power companies and meets EU requirements to an internal electricity market. The main issues of reforms: transparency of costs, commercial relations in power sector, fulfilment of the Electricity Directive 96/92/EU. The Lithuanian electricity market is small and inefficient. Current reforms of a power sector are directed to create the common Baltic electricity market. (author)

  13. Electricity prices in the Finnish retail market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehto, Eero

    2011-01-01

    This study focuses, firstly, on the pricing of electricity in the Finnish retail market. In particular, the impact of the ownership structure on prices is tested empirically. Secondly, the influence of low-cost electricity sources on retail prices is considered. The question about whether the average fuel costs rather than the wholesale price determine the retail prices is thus addressed. The supply side behaviour characterised may explain the passivity of client activity in the seemingly competitive Finnish market. - Research highlights: → Ownership has a strong impact on retail prices in the Finnish electricity market. → Locally owned companies' rates are 5-15 per cent lower than investor owned companies' rates. → Own low cost acquisition of electricity helps local firms to keep prices at low levels.

  14. The electricity market in transition: a decoding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde; Schwarz, Virginie; Chapon, Antoine; Fouquet, Doerte; Joos, Marine; Jedliczka, Marc; Siess, Damien

    2015-01-01

    A set of article proposes a discussion of the main challenges for energy transition for the architecture of the European electricity market, an interview of the responsible of the energy department within the French ministry of ecology (she addresses the issues of market, electricity system, renewable energies), a discussion of the first lessons learned from the integration of renewable energies in the electricity market, a comment on hazardous evolutions for independent producers, a discussion of the pilot stage for bidding in Germany, a discussion of false ideas and true challenges in the relationship between demand management and integration, a comment on the evolution towards a complete reform of the support system for renewable energies, and a discussion of the perspectives beyond 40 per cent of renewable energies in the French electricity mix

  15. French dissatisfactions on the European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glachant, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    The author first notices that the French electricity professional consumers are dissatisfied with the results of the creation of the European domestic electricity market in 1997: price increase either on bills or on the wholesale markets, and even more price increases are to come. The author proposes to examine several issues: what has been done during the 6 or 7 past years, that is since the California crisis in 2000-2001, to put the European electrical reforms on a virtuous track? Have the basic market economy principles been respected to protect competitiveness of all energy consumer professionals? How and why the French government or EDF will make us pay gas, coal or CO 2 emission permits like in England or Germany whereas the French electricity production has mainly (90 or 95 per cent) a nuclear or hydraulic origin?

  16. Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachmann, Georg

    2008-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector has led to a common European market for electricity. Based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of wholesale electricity prices in 2002-2006, we reject the assumption of full market integration. For several pairs of countries, the weaker hypothesis of (bilateral) convergence is accepted based on unit root tests (KPSS and ADF) and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations. This indicates that the efforts to develop a single European market for electricity were so far only partially successful. We show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross-border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials. Empirically, our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature. (author)

  17. Stock Markets Volatility Spillovers during Financial Crises : A DCC-MGARCH with Skew-t Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Bala, Dahiru A.; Takimoto, Taro

    2016-01-01

    We investigate stock markets volatility spillovers in selected emerging and major developed markets using multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models [namely; DVECH, CCC-MGARCH, CCC-VARMA-(A)MGARCH, VAR-EGARCH, BEKK-(A)MGARCH, DCC-MGARCH (with Gaussian and t distributions) and DCC-with-skew-t density]. The paper analyses the impacts of recent global financial crisis (2007{2009) on stock market volatility and examines their dynamic interactions using several MGARCH model variants. Structural break dete...

  18. Investor’s Sentiments and Stock Market Volatility: an empirical evidence from emerging stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mobeen Ur Rehman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of efficient market hypothesis has prevailed the financial markets for a long time which says that the prices of the securities reflect all available information. This approach was mainly followed by the rational investors but with the passage of time, the concept of behavioral finance emerged due to some of the major global financial crashes. This concept states that there are investors trading in the market making decisions on the basis of sentiments not on any fundamental information. Such class of traders is called the noise traders and they are mainly responsible for any disruption in the returns of the securities. In this paper we will try to find whether these sentiments of the investors affect the returns of the securities listed on the Karachi stock exchange. We will use the investor sentiment index that uses the six proxies the data on which has been collected mainly from the Karachi stock exchange. Volatility of the stock market returns will be calculated and regressed with the sentimental equation discussed above as the independent variable. This study will help us to find out the extent to which these sentiments influence the stock market returns in weak form efficient market and also it will help us to identify the presence of such irrational noise traders in our financial market.

  19. Quantifying multiscale inefficiency in electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uritskaya, Olga Y. [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, and Department of Economics and Management, St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-11-15

    One of the basic features of efficient markets is the absence of correlations between price increments over any time scale leading to random walk-type behavior of prices. In this paper, we propose a new approach for measuring deviations from the efficient market state based on an analysis of scale-dependent fractal exponent characterizing correlations at different time scales. The approach is applied to two electricity markets, Alberta and Mid Columbia (Mid-C), as well as to the AECO Alberta natural gas market (for purposes of providing a comparison between storable and non-storable commodities). We show that price fluctuations in all studied markets are not efficient, with electricity prices exhibiting complex multiscale correlated behavior not captured by monofractal methods used in previous studies. (author)

  20. Quantifying multiscale inefficiency in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uritskaya, Olga Y.; Serletis, Apostolos

    2008-01-01

    One of the basic features of efficient markets is the absence of correlations between price increments over any time scale leading to random walk-type behavior of prices. In this paper, we propose a new approach for measuring deviations from the efficient market state based on an analysis of scale-dependent fractal exponent characterizing correlations at different time scales. The approach is applied to two electricity markets, Alberta and Mid Columbia (Mid-C), as well as to the AECO Alberta natural gas market (for purposes of providing a comparison between storable and non-storable commodities). We show that price fluctuations in all studied markets are not efficient, with electricity prices exhibiting complex multiscale correlated behavior not captured by monofractal methods used in previous studies. (author)

  1. Nordic Market report 2010. Development in the Nordic Electricity Market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-07-15

    The Nordic region is characterized by a unique mix of generation sources, with a very high share of hydropower. Hydropower accounts for virtually all of the Norwegian and nearly half of the Swedish generation capacity, making the level of precipitation vital when calculating and analysing potential generation levels. Climatic conditions such as, significantly colder winters than any other European country also influence consumption in the Nordic region, as many households are electrically heated. Overall electricity consumption in the Nordic region in 2009 was marked by decreasing consumption in every market - from a decrease of 1,5% in Denmark to a decrease of 5,5% in Finland. The Nordic transmission grid connects almost the entire region into one synchronous power system enabling increased security of supply as well as a more efficient use of the generation capacity, but congestion occurs. Congestions between the Nord Pool bidding areas are handled through market splitting, while internal congestions in general are handled through counter trade or by reducing interconnector capacity at the bidding area borders. The key future challenge for transmission network operations both in the Nordic area, and as well on the European level will be to facilitate the functioning of the pan-European wholesale electricity markets. The Nordic wholesale power market is well functioning. The volume traded at Nord Pool in 2009 was about the same share of total consumption as that of 2008. Although trading at Nord Pool is voluntary, significantly more power is traded on the power exchange than bilaterally. During 2009 average spot prices at Nord Pool were lower than prices in 2008 due to both lower demand and generation costs for thermal power plants for most of 2009. The Nordic retail markets are essentially four separate markets, influenced by national differences, but work on integration has started. Throughout 2009 retail prices in the Nordic region were lower than in 2008

  2. Electric markets and services of the system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carbajo, A.

    2007-01-01

    Electricity cannot be stored in significant quantities and requires generation and demand be balanced instantly in order to control the frequency. This means that the electric system must be equipped with specific devices in order to ensure this dynamic balance. Of the services required by the electric system, some are mandatory for the generators, while others are voluntary, these last ones being those supplied under market schemes. On the other hand, the commitment of the Spanish electric system to incorporate a significant volume of renewable energy, due to its intermittent properties, demands that these adjustment services use a greater volume of this energy in order to ensure the reliability of the system at all times. Finally, securing the Iberian electric market implies that there might be variations in these services - not only in the volume but also in their characteristics. (Author)

  3. Management of electricity markets in European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamfir, A.; Florescu, M.S.

    2007-01-01

    The challenges facing energy markets in Europe were discussed with particular reference to the need to integrate and interconnect national energy markets. The Romanian power market evolution since 2000 was also analyzed, taking into account the fact that the strategic objective of the Romanian Government is to assume the role of Regional Exchange in the South-East European region. A common approach to energy is needed to enable the European Union (EU) to compete in global markets, to improve sustainability in the EU and to secure energy supply. An overall framework is needed in order to achieve these objectives. This paper presented the general measures needed to complete the internal gas and electricity markets in Europe. It also proposed measures to ensure that the EU's internal energy market guarantees security of supply and solidarity between Member States. The guiding principles that an approach to information management and market transparency should be based on were described. The authors suggested that an integrated and competitive electricity and gas markets should be established to promote efficient energy services and diversify the energy mix. The measures needed in order to achieve the goal of a genuine single market at EU level were described along with the actions needed to stimulate investments in infrastructure and generation capacity. Measures to prevent or manage energy supply crises were also proposed. 4 refs., 1 tab

  4. Design and analysis of electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

    Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency

  5. Energy subsidies in California's electricity market deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritschel, Alexander; Smestad, G.P.

    2003-01-01

    Deregulation and re-regulation of California's electricity market not only failed in terms of anticipated cost reductions, improved customer service and higher competition, it also led to the introduction of various additional energy subsidies. This paper analyzes California's electricity market deregulation process from a subsidy viewpoint. Under deregulation in California, investor-owned utilities were not allowed to pass their energy procurement costs fully on to their customers, and therefore subsequently, and inevitably, ran into severe financial problems. Such retail price regulation is an energy subsidy that is both economically and environmentally unfavorable, because it veils true price signals to electricity consumers and, in this way, discourages energy conservation. Other policies implemented in California that represent perverse energy subsidies are the purchase of power by the state of California, the suspension of retail competition, and the potential misuse of money from the recovery of stranded costs. Many interventions implemented by the state to smooth out the impacts of the energy crisis insulated electricity consumers from market realities, supported the existing structure of California's electricity market, which is predominantly based on fossil fuels, and suppressed market incentives to improve energy conservation

  6. Time-dependent correlations in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Escarela-Perez, Rafael

    2010-01-01

    In the last years, many electricity markets were subjected to deregulated operation where prices are set by the action of market participants. In this form, producers and consumers rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. A basic feature of efficient market hypothesis is the absence of correlations between price increments over any time scale leading to random walk-type behavior of prices, so arbitrage is not possible. However, recent studies have suggested that this is not the case and correlations are present in the behavior of diverse electricity markets. In this paper, a temporal quantification of electricity market correlations is made by means of detrended fluctuation and Allan analyses. The approach is applied to two Canadian electricity markets, Ontario and Alberta. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices, exhibiting complex time-dependent behavior with lower correlations in winter while higher in summer. Relatively steady annual cycles in demand but unstable cycles in prices are detected. On the other hand, the more significant nonlinear effects (measured in terms of a multifractality index) are found for winter months, while the converse behavior is displayed during the summer period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that nonlinear recursive models (e.g., feedback NNs) should be used for accurate day-ahead price estimation. In contrast, linear models can suffice for demand forecasting purposes. (author)

  7. Detrending the realized volatility in the global FX market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Anatoly B.

    2009-05-01

    There has been growing interest in realized volatility (RV) of financial assets that is calculated using intra-day returns. The choice of optimal time grid for these calculations is not trivial and generally requires analysis of RV dependence on the grid spacing (so-called RV signature). Typical RV signatures have a maximum at the finest time grid spacing available, which is attributed to the microstructure effects. This maximum decays into a plateau at lower frequencies, which implies (almost) stationary return variance. We found that the RV signatures in the modern global FX market may have no plateau or even have a maximum at lower frequencies. Simple averaging methods used to address the microstructure effects in equities have no practical effect on the FX RV signatures. We show that local detrending of the high-frequency FX rate samples yields RV signatures with a pronounced plateau. This implies that FX rates can be described with a Brownian motion having non-stationary trend and stationary variance. We point at a role of algorithmic trading as a possible cause of micro-trends in FX rates.

  8. Measuring market performance in restructured electricity markets: An empirical analysis of the PJM energy market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Russell Jay

    2002-09-01

    Today the electric industry in the U.S. is transitioning to competitive markets for wholesale electricity. Independent system operators (ISOs) now manage broad regional markets for electrical energy in several areas of the U.S. A recent rulemaking by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) encourages the development of regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and restructured competitive wholesale electricity markets nationwide. To date, the transition to competitive wholesale markets has not been easy. The increased reliance on market forces coupled with unusually high electricity demand for some periods have created conditions amenable to market power abuse in many regions throughout the U.S. In the summer of 1999, hot and humid summer conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia pushed peak demand in the PJM Interconnection to record levels. These demand conditions coincided with the introduction of market-based pricing in the wholesale electricity market. Prices for electricity increased on average by 55 percent, and reached the $1,000/MWh range. This study examines the extent to which generator market power raised prices above competitive levels in the PJM Interconnection during the summer of 1999. It simulates hourly market-clearing prices assuming competitive market behavior and compares these prices with observed market prices in computing price markups over the April 1-August 31, 1999 period. The results of the simulation analysis are supported with an examination of actual generator bid data of incumbent generators. Price markups averaged 14.7 percent above expected marginal cost over the 5-month period for all non-transmission-constrained hours. The evidence presented suggests that the June and July monthly markups were strongly influenced by generator market power as price inelastic peak demand approached the electricity generation capacity constraint of the market. While this analysis of the

  9. Linking market interaction intensity of 3D Ising type financial model with market volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wen; Ke, Jinchuan; Wang, Jun; Feng, Ling

    2016-11-01

    Microscopic interaction models in physics have been used to investigate the complex phenomena of economic systems. The simple interactions involved can lead to complex behaviors and help the understanding of mechanisms in the financial market at a systemic level. This article aims to develop a financial time series model through 3D (three-dimensional) Ising dynamic system which is widely used as an interacting spins model to explain the ferromagnetism in physics. Through Monte Carlo simulations of the financial model and numerical analysis for both the simulation return time series and historical return data of Hushen 300 (HS300) index in Chinese stock market, we show that despite its simplicity, this model displays stylized facts similar to that seen in real financial market. We demonstrate a possible underlying link between volatility fluctuations of real stock market and the change in interaction strengths of market participants in the financial model. In particular, our stochastic interaction strength in our model demonstrates that the real market may be consistently operating near the critical point of the system.

  10. Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

  11. Essays on environmental regulations in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yanming

    Reducing the Greenhouse Gas pollution and promoting energy efficiency among consumers' energy use have been major public policy issues recently. Currently, both the United States and the European Union have set up explicit percentage requirements that require energy generators or consumers to undertake a certain percentage of their energy production or consumption from renewable sources. To achieve their renewable targets, the Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) system has been introduced in their electricity markets. Moreover, in order to promote energy conservation and achieve energy efficiency targets, price policies and price changes derived from environmental regulations have played a more important role in reducing electricity consumption. My research studies problems associated with these policy implementations. In Chapter 1, I analyze a competitive electricity market with two countries operated under a common TGC system. By using geometric illustrations, I compare the two countries' welfare when the renewable quota is chosen optimally under the common certificate market with three different situations. The policy recommendation is that when the value of damage parameter is sufficiently small, full integration with a TGC market is welfare superior to full integration of an all fossil-fuel based market with an optimal emissions standard. In Chapter 2, by analyzing a stylized theoretical model and numerical examples, I investigate the performance of the optimal renewables policy under full separation and full integration scenarios for two countries' electricity markets operated under TGC systems. In my third chapter, I look at residential electricity consumption responsiveness to increases of electricity price in the U.S. and the different effect of a price increase on electricity use for states of different income levels. My analysis reveals that raising the energy price in the short run will not give consumers much incentive to adjust their appliances and make

  12. Harmonizing electricity markets with physics : real time performance monitoring using grid-3PTM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budhraja, V.S.

    2003-01-01

    The Electric Power Group, LLC provides management and strategic consulting services for the electric power industry, with special emphasis on industry restructuring, competitive electricity markets, grid operations and reliability, power technologies, venture investments and start-ups. The Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions involves national laboratories, universities, and industry partners in researching, developing, and commercializing electric reliability technology solutions to protect and enhance the reliability of the American electric power system under the emerging competitive electricity market structure. Physics differentiate electric markets from other markets: there is real-time balancing, no storage, interconnected network, and power flows governed by physics. Some issues affecting both grid reliability and market issues are difficult to separate, such as security and congestion management, voltage management, reserves, frequency volatility, and others. The author examined the following investment challenges facing the electricity market: grid solutions, market solutions, and technology solutions. The real time performance monitoring and prediction platform, grid-3P was described and applications discussed, such as ACE-frequency monitoring, performance monitoring for automatic generation control (AGC) and frequency response, voltage/VAR monitoring, stability monitoring using phasor technology, and market monitoring. figs

  13. Electrical connections: Iran's power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2000-01-01

    Attention is drawn to business opportunities in Iran, a middle-eastern country that is still in the process of rebuilding its power generating capacity in the wake of its eight-year-long war with Iraq. In reviewing opportunities to tap into this market , the article lists a number of factors that must be considered before rushing to follow the current. One of these factors is the U.S. trade embargo against Iran. Under this embargo Canada does not allow the re-export of goods of U.S. origin from Canada to Iran. The complex character of doing business in Iran by foreign companies must also be considered. Nevertheless,, those who are well prepared to face the restrictions and are willing to take the time to learn about the 'Iranian way' may receive considerable help from the Export Development Corporation, including financing and insurance on a case-by-case basis. The Canadian government's program for export market development also offers direct financial assistance to Canadian exporters in an effort to reduce the risk of entering a foreign market. The Canadian Embassy in Tehran can also provide useful advice and assistance. There is also http://exportsource.gc.ca., Team Canada Inc.'s on-line resource that may be consulted for export information

  14. Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vo, Minh T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

  15. Towards electricity markets accommodating uncertain offers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    formulation of an electricity market, based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) reduces the impact of poor estimates for both the stochastic producers and the system operator. We introduce a simulation setting which first demonstrates that impact and then proceed to illustrate the main features......The use of renewable energy sources of energy and in particular wind and solar has been on the rise over the last decades with plans to increase it even more. Such developments introduce significant challenges in existing power systems and can result in high electricity prices and costly...... infrastructure investments. In this paper we propose a new electricity market mechanism whereby the uncertain and dynamic nature of wind power and other stochastic sources is embedded in the market mechanism itself, by modelling producers’ bids as probabilistic estimates. An extension on the bilevel programming...

  16. The reform of the Swedish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petsala, B.

    1995-01-01

    The objective of the ongoing reform of deregulation of the electricity market in Sweden is to create and improve the prerequisites for more efficient use of the generation and distribution, thus bringing about a more efficient price building. Similar reforms take place in the other Nordic countries. As a result of these changes the possibilities for international trade in electricity increases considerably. Tendencies towards concentration of production and distribution as well as increased vertical integration make it important for the State to monitor the development and if necessary suggest measures to counteract possible undesired effects. The national character of the former electricity market does no longer constitute a restriction to trade and the power companies already operate in each other's market. (author). 2 figs., 4 tabs., 6 refs

  17. Liberalization of electricity markets and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yajima, Masayuki

    2004-01-01

    Liberalization of electricity markets begun in England in 1990 and became the trends of the times. Its effects on the energy security and atomic power generation are discussed. On the effects on energy security, change of construction of fuel of power generation, decrease of fuel feed by high efficiency of power generation, decrease of fuel stock by pressure of cost-cutting, increase of import rate of electricity, increase of power consumption with decrease of power cost, flexibility of supply contract, diversification of service, international cooperation on energy security and mutual dependence relation by international investment are discussed. On the effects of liberalization on the electricity markets, characteristics of nuclear power generation, risk of investment, effects of introduction of competition on development of the existing and new nuclear power generation, relation between development of nuclear power generation and market failure and what the government should do for development of nuclear power generation are discussed. (S.Y.)

  18. The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

  19. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  20. Dynamics of the Croatian electricity market opening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesut, D.; Zeljko, M.; Zutobradic, S.

    2003-01-01

    Customer eligibility is regulated by the Law on Electricity Market and its Article 23 (Official Gazette 79/01). Eligibility is understood as a possible supplier choice. To ensure the eligible status, annual demand should exceed 40 GWh. The category of customers that has gained the eligibility status based on the Law on Electricity Market makes out a total of around 7 percent of the annual electric energy consumption in Croatia. Thus, it can be said that electricity market openness in Croatia lies somewhat below 10 percent. According to the already mentioned Article 23, paragraph 4, the Government may determine annual demand threshold lowering as a condition to grant the eligibility status. According to the Law on Gas Market from 2001, the category of eligible gas customers in Croatia includes all electricity generators who use gas, regardless of the annual gas consumption, and other customers whose annual consumption exceeds 100 million m3. In 2002 there were seven such customers and they participated with 1,374,160,000 m3, i.e. 51 percent in the total gas consumption. As INA is the sole natural gas producer in Croatia with a long-term contract on the supply line lease for the transportation of Russian gas, it is also the only supplier of natural gas. Therefore, in 2002 each eligible customer bought gas from INA. Issues related to this field are: what kind of dynamics should one proceed with toward further energy market opening in Croatia? How large is this share of electricity, i.e. gas consumption in Croatia? What are the prerequisites, both organisational and technical, for this kind of market opening? (author)

  1. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  2. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  3. Simultaneous Volatility Transmissions and Spillover Effects: US and Hong Kong Stock and Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard Gannon

    2004-01-01

    Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15 minute sampled data from this medium sized Asia Pacific equity and der...

  4. Marketing wholesale electricity in British Columbia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moghadam, B. [Powerex, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2002-03-14

    An open access wholesale transmission tariff (WTS) has been in place in British Columbia since 1997, and wholesale electricity can be sold to wholesale purchasers by independent producers located within the province. Customers range from municipalities to British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro), to Powerex, to UtiliCorp Networks Corporation (UNC). Provided that the necessary approvals and transmission services have been acquired, the energy may be transmitted anywhere in Canada or the United States. The generation and sale of electricity within British Columbia and the United States is subject to government and regulatory approvals. Several buyers and sellers that come together to trade a product are part of a hub. The largest such hub in the Pacific Northwest is called the Mid-Columbia (Mid-C) hub in Washington. The commodity is traded in 25 MW standard blocks. The credit requirements of the purchaser must be satisfied by the generating party. BC Hydro wholesale transmission service can be purchased by any wholesale power marketer or generator to transmit the power to market. It is imperative that scheduling personnel be available at all times. The Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) insists that an operating reserve of 5 per cent hydro generation and 7 per cent thermal generation to support the electrical system in the face of an emergency be available for the electricity marketed through the hub. Powerex has been successful since 1988 in the marketing of electricity throughout the WSCC. An example was provided to help make the rules a bit easier to comprehend. refs.

  5. Marketing wholesale electricity in British Columbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moghadam, B.

    2002-01-01

    An open access wholesale transmission tariff (WTS) has been in place in British Columbia since 1997, and wholesale electricity can be sold to wholesale purchasers by independent producers located within the province. Customers range from municipalities to British Columbia Hydro (BC Hydro), to Powerex, to UtiliCorp Networks Corporation (UNC). Provided that the necessary approvals and transmission services have been acquired, the energy may be transmitted anywhere in Canada or the United States. The generation and sale of electricity within British Columbia and the United States is subject to government and regulatory approvals. Several buyers and sellers that come together to trade a product are part of a hub. The largest such hub in the Pacific Northwest is called the Mid-Columbia (Mid-C) hub in Washington. The commodity is traded in 25 MW standard blocks. The credit requirements of the purchaser must be satisfied by the generating party. BC Hydro wholesale transmission service can be purchased by any wholesale power marketer or generator to transmit the power to market. It is imperative that scheduling personnel be available at all times. The Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) insists that an operating reserve of 5 per cent hydro generation and 7 per cent thermal generation to support the electrical system in the face of an emergency be available for the electricity marketed through the hub. Powerex has been successful since 1988 in the marketing of electricity throughout the WSCC. An example was provided to help make the rules a bit easier to comprehend. refs

  6. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  7. How to Organize Electricity Savings in a Liberalized Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The basic idea of Integrated Ressource Planning is described and it is demonstrated how this is in conflict with the sub-optimizing necessary in a liberalized market. Afterwards are outlined how the measuring of savings energy consumption constitutes a fundamental problem. Finally are dicussed...... the future actors in the electricity sector and their roles in implementing electricity savings, followed by some proposals for an energy policy....

  8. The electricity market reinvention by regional renewal

    OpenAIRE

    Fontaine, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Just one hundred years ago, electricity was classified as a luxury good. Since renewable energies entered the German market 25 years ago, they slowly started to change some fundamental conditions. The ubiquity of electrical devices in our daily life is not something we think about anymore in the industrialised world. It has become as normal as breathing. Yet unlike air, power has to be obtained and distributed. The constant availability of current is therefore not a given thing, but something...

  9. European internal electricity market. What next?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrov, K.; Hewicker, C.; Boisseleau, F.; Nabuurs, P.

    2007-01-01

    2006 has been a very active year in the development of electricity markets worldwide. In Europe the liberalisation process was moving forward driven by the European Directives implemented in the EU states. Together with security of supply and environmental protection, implementation of competitive energy markets has also been one of the main objectives of EU energy policy. A competitive internal market for electricity has been progressively implemented across the European Union since 1999-2000. This process aims at increasing competition in electricity generation and supply leading to enhanced efficiency, which is closely associated with lower production costs and ultimately lower electricity prices. The sector inquiry and the country reviews conducted by the European Commission (EC) during 2006 showed that progress has been achieved. However, there are still a number of issues that need to be resolved in order to achieve an adequately operating internal electricity market. The EC energy package from 10th January 2007 is a set of concrete proposals for action in the energy field and arises in reaction to the Green Paper published on 8th March 2006. The Green Paper 'A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy', on the one hand, identified the main problems that the European energy sector faces and, on the other hand, suggested possible actions to meet key objectives, including security of supply, environmental sustainability and competitiveness towards a unified European Energy Policy. The motivation of the EC package is the need to identify new measures or a strengthening of existing measures to reach the targets and their underlying objectives. The EC package deals with the main issues on energy policy (renewable electricity, internal electricity and gas market, sector competition, sustainable power generation from fossil fuels, nuclear energy, gas and electricity infrastructures and energy technology) and an action plan for energy

  10. Measuring and Forecasting Financial Market Volatility using High-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Bannouh (Karim)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis dissertation consists of three studies on the use of intraday asset price data for accurate measurement and forecasting of financial market volatility. Chapter 2 proposes a refined heuristic bias-correction for the two time scales realized range-based volatility estimator in the

  11. On Volatility Swaps for Stock Market Forecast: Application Example CAC 40 French Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halim Zeghdoudi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps under Heston model (1993. To this end, we apply this model to the empirical financial data: CAC 40 French Index. More precisely, we make an application example for stock market forecast: CAC 40 French Index to price swap on the volatility using GARCH(1,1 model.

  12. Modelling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for USA, UK and China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); J. Tian (Jiarong)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns

  13. Market power and technological bias in electricity generation markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twomey, Paul; Neuhoff, Karsten

    2005-01-01

    It is difficult or very costly to avoid all market power in electricity markets. A recurring response is that a limited amount of market power is accepted with the justification that it is necessary to produce revenues to cover some of the fixed costs. It is assumed that all market participants benefit equally from the increased prices. However, this assumption is not satisfied if different production technologies are used. We assess the case of a generation mix of conventional generation and intermittent generation with exogenously varying production levels. If all output is sold in the spot market, then intermittent generation benefits less from market power than conventional generation. If forward contracts or option contracts are signed, then market power might be reduced but the bias against returns to intermittent generators persists. Thus allowing some level of market power as a means of encouraging investment in new generation may result in a bias against intermittent technologies or increase the costs of strategic deployment to achieve renewable quotas. (Author)

  14. Correlations and clustering in wholesale electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tianyu; Caravelli, Francesco; Ududec, Cozmin

    2018-02-01

    We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and introduce a type of correlation function based on event synchronization for spiky time series, and another based on string correlations of location names provided by the markets. This allows us to reconstruct aspects of the locational structure of the grid.

  15. Empowering Customer Choice in Electricity Markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Timely and effective deployment of demand response could greatly increase power system flexibility, electricity security and market efficiency. Considerable progress has been made in recent years to harness demand response. However, most of this potential remains to be developed. The paper draws from IEA experience to identify barriers to demand response, and possible enablers that can encourage more timely and effective demand response including cost reflective pricing, retail market reform, and improved load control and metering equipment. Governments have a key role to play in developing and implementing the policy, legal, regulatory and market frameworks needed to empower customer choice and accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective demand response.

  16. Correlations and clustering in wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Tianyu; Caravelli, Francesco; Ududec, Cozmin

    2017-01-01

    We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and introduce a type of correlation function based on event synchronization for spiky time series, and another based on string correlations of location names provided by the markets. As a result, this allows us to reconstruct aspects of the locational structure of the grid.

  17. Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

  18. Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  19. Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2006); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  20. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  1. Auction game in electric power market place

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, J.; Sheble, G.

    1996-01-01

    The power industry in the US is presently an evolving changing business environment. While planning to meet future peak demand is still a concern, the efficient utilization of existing generation and transmission resources is fast becoming a primary interest. This interest suggests a move from cost-based market operations to price based market operations. Auction market structure is one of the various ways to perform price based operation. Such a market place would be very new and challenging to all players of the electric power industry. This paper describes an overview of the new business environment. The paper presents a detailed description of the auction game. The trading objectives in the bidding game are defined. The framework of auction process is described by defining the rules to play the game. Finally, strategies for market players are discussed

  2. The Nordic electricity market towards 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aune, Finn Roar; Johnsen, Tor Arnt

    2001-01-01

    This article opens by examining the development of the Nordic power market in the 1990s. It tries to establish that the power market is a complex one. The market conditions vary greatly from one region to another and over time, and there is varying degree of integration among the regional markets. Thus, analyses of policy and political measures must be based on a detailed computational tool. In the SAMRAM project ''Power trade and Transmission'', such a computational model has been established, Normod-T. The article describes the principle features of the model and uses it to study the development of the Nordic power market toward the year 2010. It further analyses the impact of building gas power plants in Norway and of establishing a new cable for transmission of electric power between Norway and Germany

  3. Feed-in tariff and market electricity price comparison. The case of cogeneration units in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uran, Vedran; Krajcar, Slavko

    2009-01-01

    In August 2007, the Government of the Republic of Croatia instituted a feed-in tariff system, requiring the Croatian Electricity Market Operator (HROTE) to off-take the electricity produced from renewable energy sources or cogeneration units fueled by natural gas. Analysis of the off-take electricity price range, which depends on the net electrical output and electricity market trends, indicates that it is more cost effective for cogeneration units greater than 1 MW to sell their electricity on the exchange market. This was confirmed by developing a mathematical model to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio of a cogeneration unit. This ratio represents the relation between the profit spread, i.e. the difference between the profit generated from selling the electricity on the exchange market and the profit made from dispatching the electricity to HROTE, as well as the total investment costs. The model can be applied for changes in certain parameters, such as the net electrical output, volatility and spot electricity price. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the most probable cost-effectiveness ratio and average future electricity price. Together with these two economic parameters and market price analysis, it is possible to calculate and calibrate an acceptable off-take electricity price. (author)

  4. Security of Supply in Australia's National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, Sebastian

    2005-06-01

    This paper discusses the experience with an energy-only market in Australia, focusing on investment and price outcomes since market commencement. Looking back at the changes in the market since it commenced in 1998, it is fair to say that the energy-only market design has been a success so far. Demand has increased steadily, but this has been matched with new investment in generation and networks. The availability and efficiency of existing plant has also increased substantially. As a result of these gains, prices have come down and are less volatile, and the reliability and security of the market has been consolidated. Compared with 1989-90, the industry delivered more electricity (an increase of 45 per cent), to more customers (an increase of 26 per cent), and with less than half the number of employees. Industrial and residential energy users have enjoyed decreased prices, thanks to a combination of increased generation and network investment, and greater competition. Despite these successes, there is scope for further reform of the NEM to aid further improvements in the market's performance. We have seen how successful the energy-only market has been in signalling new investment in peaking generation, but there is still a question as to the effectiveness of the market in signalling baseload investment. In any case, future challenges will involve ensuring that market arrangements are conducive to new investment. Indeed, following recent reviews of the Australian energy market by Australian statutory bodies, there is a consensus view that the further reform is required to improve investment signals. The 2002 Review of Australian Energy Markets recommended structural reform of the New South Wales electricity industry and the removal of ETEF. In February this year, the Productivity Commission recommended disaggregation of the generation sector in New South Wales, and took the further step of recommending that the New South Wales government should consider

  5. How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between electricity and carbon allowance prices in the year-ahead energy markets of France, Germany, United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, during Phase II of the EU ETS. VAR and Granger-causality methods are used to analyze causal interfaces, whereas the volatility of electricity prices is studied with basic and asymmetric AR-GARCH models. Among the main results, the marginal rate at which carbon prices feed into electricity prices is shown to be ca. 135% in the EEX and Nord Pool markets, where electricity and carbon prices display bidirectional causality, and 109% in the UK. Therefore, generators in these markets internalized the cost of freely allotted emission allowances into their electricity prices considerably more than the proportionate increase in costs justified by effective carbon intensity. Moreover, electricity prices in France are found to Granger-cause the carbon price. This study also shows how European electricity prices are deeply linked to coal prices among other factors, both in terms of levels and volatility, regardless of the underlying fuel mix, and that coal was marginally more profitable than gas for electricity generation. EU policies aimed at increasing the carbon price are likely to be crucial in limiting the externalities involved in the transition to a low-carbon system. - Highlights: • The interactions between electricity and carbon prices during Phase II are investigated. • This work also studies the determinants of EU electricity price levels and volatilities. • Nord Pool, APX UK and EEX carbon cost pass-through rates emphasize low electricity market competitiveness. • Powernext electricity prices Granger-cause the Phase II carbon price. • Coal was marginally more profitable than gas during Phase II

  6. Optimal Charge control of Electric Vehicles in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lan, Tian; Hu, Junjie; Wu, Guang

    2011-01-01

    Environment constraints, petroleum scarcity, high price on fuel resources and recent advancements in battery technology have led to emergence of Electric Vehicles (EVs). As increasing numbers of EVs enter the electricity market, these extra loads may cause peak load and need to be properly...... controlled. In this paper, an algorithm is presented for every individual vehicles to minimize the charging cost while satisfying the vehicle owner’s requirements. The algorithm is based on a given future electricity prices and uses dynamic programming. Optimization aims to find the economically optimal...... solution for each vehicle....

  7. Stock Market Integration and Volatility Spillover:India and its Major Asian Counterparts

    OpenAIRE

    Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath; Mishra, Dr. R. K.

    2008-01-01

    Return and volatility spillover among Indian stock market with that of 12 other developed and emerging Asian countries over a period from November 1997 to April 2008 is studied. Daily opening and closing prices of all major equity indices from the sample countries are examined by applying the GARCH model [Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986)] to explore the possibility of stock market integration and volatility spillover among India and its major Asian counterparties. Apart from different degre...

  8. Role of Non-Volatile Memories in Automotive and IoT Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Standard Manufacturing Supply Long Term Short to Medium Term Density Up to 16MB Up to 2MB IO Configuration Up to x128 Up to x32 Design for Test...Role of Non-Volatile Memories in Automotive and IoT Markets Vipin Tiwari Director, Business Development and Product Marketing SST – A Wholly Own...microcontrollers (MCU) and certainly one of the most challenging elements to master. This paper addresses the role of non-volatile memories for

  9. Load profiles analysis for electricity market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Porumb

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of electric power system transition towards smart grids, and the adoption of the electric market schemes, electric utilities are facing the need of a better load profiles understanding for their customers. In this work, some key objectives were addresses, such as definition of the mathematical model for calculating the hourly energy specific, identification of the three target groups for users who have developed consumer profiles, definition of the two types of significant load and assessment of the impact of using consumer profiles on users.

  10. Predictability of Wave Energy and Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chozas, Julia Fernandez

    2012-01-01

    The articlw addresses an important challenge ahead the integration of the electricity generated by wave energy conversion technologies into the electric grid. Particularly, it looks into the role of wave energy within the day-ahead electricity market. For that the predictability of the theoretical...... power outputs of three wave energy technologies in the Danish North Sea are examined. The simultaneous and co-located forecast and buoy-measured wave parameters at Hanstholm, Denmark, during a non-consecutive autumn and winter 3-month period form the basis of the investigation. The objective...

  11. Nordic market report 2009 : Development in the Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The Nordic region is characterized by a unique mix of generation sources where the high share of hydropower, representing virtually all of the Norwegian and nearly half of the Swedish generation capacity, has a great influence on the market. The level of precipitation is thus vital when calculating and analysing potential generation levels. In addition, the Nordic region has significantly colder winters than any other European country, influencing the consumption as many households are electrically heated. In 2008 the overall electricity consumption in the Nordic region was slightly higher - 1.6 per cent - than in 2007. During periods of peak consumption the Nordic power system proved sufficient to ensure security of supply without restrictions on consumption. The Nordic region operates almost entirely as one synchronous power system through transmission grid. The continuous reinforcement of the Nordic transmission grid has enabled an increased security of supply as well as a more efficient use of the generation capacity. Increasing cross border power flows strain the transmission lines and increases the demand for transmission capacity. Possible congestions occurring between the Nord Pool bidding areas are handled through market splitting, while internal congestions in general are handled through counter trade or by reducing interconnector capacity at the bidding area borders. The Nordic wholesale power market is a well functioning electricity market. Trade at Nord Pool has increased steadily since it was established in 1993. Although trading at Nord Pool Spot is voluntary, significantly more physical power is now traded on the power exchange than bilaterally - from 42 per cent of total Nordic consumption in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2008. During 2008 average spot prices at Nord Pool were considerably higher (approximately 60 per cent) than prices in 2007. The Nordic retail markets are essentially four separate markets, influenced by national differences, but work on

  12. Nordic market report 2009. Development in the Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-15

    The Nordic region is characterized by a unique mix of generation sources where the high share of hydropower, representing virtually all of the Norwegian and nearly half of the Swedish generation capacity, has a great influence on the market. The level of precipitation is thus vital when calculating and analysing potential generation levels. In addition, the Nordic region has significantly colder winters than any other European country, influencing the consumption as many households are electrically heated. In 2008 the overall electricity consumption in the Nordic region was slightly higher - 1.6 per cent - than in 2007. During periods of peak consumption the Nordic power system proved sufficient to ensure security of supply without restrictions on consumption. The Nordic region operates almost entirely as one synchronous power system through transmission grid. The continuous reinforcement of the Nordic transmission grid has enabled an increased security of supply as well as a more efficient use of the generation capacity. Increasing cross border power flows strain the transmission lines and increases the demand for transmission capacity. Possible congestions occurring between the Nord Pool bidding areas are handled through market splitting, while internal congestions in general are handled through counter trade or by reducing interconnector capacity at the bidding area borders. The Nordic wholesale power market is a well functioning electricity market. Trade at Nord Pool has increased steadily since it was established in 1993. Although trading at Nord Pool Spot is voluntary, significantly more physical power is now traded on the power exchange than bilaterally - from 42 per cent of total Nordic consumption in 2004 to 76 per cent in 2008. During 2008 average spot prices at Nord Pool were considerably higher (approximately 60 per cent) than prices in 2007. The Nordic retail markets are essentially four separate markets, influenced by national differences, but work on

  13. Redesign Electricity Market for the Next Generation Power System of Renewable Energy and Distributed Storage Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic time-series based method to simulate the volatility of intermittent renewable generation and distributed storage devices along timeline. The proposed method can calculate the optimal timeline for different electricity markets and power systems. In practice......, the proposed method is potentially useful for designing market rules and evaluating different design options. Following works is underway on application and simulation of proposed method using the realistic distribution system of Bornholm Island in Denmark....

  14. Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

  15. Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

  16. Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

  17. Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

  18. Independent regulatory authorities in European electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Ole Jess; Larsen, Anders; Sørensen, Eva Moll

    2006-01-01

    Liberalisation of the electricity market has taken place in most European countries within the last decade. It is considered a precondition of successful liberalisation to establish so-called independent regulatory authorities. In this article, we compare the status and practice of them in 16...

  19. Electric vehicles: Market survey. Marktuebersicht Elektrofahrzeuge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baur, A.

    1993-01-01

    In the context of this article a tabular list of electric vehicles is shown, which are licensed and available on the German market. This contains one- to two-seated light-weight vehicles with ordinary serial bodyworks as well as transporters and busses. (BWI)

  20. Market analysis green electricity. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reichmuth, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    In the present study the volume of the German market for green energy will be analyzed for its functionality, barriers and also its development perspectives. Besides an evaluation of actual literature sources, elaborate interviews of electricity suppliers (green energy suppliers) were realized.

  1. Optimal DG placement in deregulated electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautam, Durga; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents two new methodologies for optimal placement of distributed generation (DG) in an optimal power flow (OPF) based wholesale electricity market. DG is assumed to participate in real time wholesale electricity market. The problem of optimal placement, including size, is formulated for two different objectives, namely, social welfare maximization and profit maximization. The candidate locations for DG placement are identified on the basis of locational marginal price (LMP). Obtained as lagrangian multiplier associated with active power flow equation for each node, LMP gives the short run marginal cost (SRMC) of electricity. Consumer payment, evaluated as a product of LMP and load at each load bus, is proposed as another ranking to identify candidate nodes for DG placement. The proposed rankings bridges engineering aspects of system operation and economic aspects of market operation and act as good indicators for the placement of DG, especially in a market environment. In order to provide a scenario of variety of DGs available in the market, several cost characteristics are assumed. For each DG cost characteristic, an optimal placement and size is identified for each of the objectives. The proposed methodology is tested in a modified IEEE 14 bus test system. (author)

  2. Towards a regional electricity market in Southeast Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichord, R.F. Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Historical evolution of the region's electric power policy is overviewed. The regional characteristics of Southern Europe's electric power market are summarized. The reform indicators of the region's electricity markets are discussed. The status of privatization is presented. Factors in developing regional electricity market are considered. (R.P.)

  3. Electricity market liberalisation - the German model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, W.

    2002-01-01

    This article discusses the experience gained as a result of the opening of the German electricity market - not only from the national but also from European and international points of view. The history of electricity market liberalisation in Germany is described and the market's structure is compared with that of Switzerland. Both the advantages and disadvantages that have been brought about by liberalisation are discussed as well as the role of state regulation. Certain problem areas still to be tackled are discussed, such those in the areas of cartels, possibilities of supplier-change and tariffs. Also, liberalisation in the context of the European Union's efforts in this area are discussed, especially with respect to the consideration of differing structures in the various member countries of the Union

  4. Long Memory in STOCK Market Volatility: the International Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chunxia; Hu, Sen; Xia, Bingying; Wang, Rui

    2012-08-01

    It is still a hot topic to catch the auto-dependence behavior of volatility. Here, based on the measurement of average volatility, under different observation window size, we investigated the dependence of successive volatility of several main stock indices and their simulated GARCH(1, 1) model, there were obvious linear auto-dependence in the logarithm of volatility under a small observation window size and nonlinear auto-dependence under a big observation. After calculating the correlation and mutual information of the logarithm of volatility for Dow Jones Industrial Average during different periods, we find that some influential events can change the correlation structure and the volatilities of different periods have distinct influence on that of the remote future. Besides, GARCH model could produce similar behavior of dependence as real data and long memory property. But our analyses show that the auto-dependence of volatility in GARCH is different from that in real data, and the long memory is undervalued by GARCH.

  5. Demand-controlling marketing of electric utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raffee, H; Fritz, W

    1980-01-01

    In situations like the shortage of energy resources the particular autonomy of the users concerning energy demand raises more and more aggravating problems for the electric utilities (EU) and, last not least, for society (i.e. the peak-load problem, threatening bottlenecks in the supply situation). Thus the requirement for a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU with the help of which the individual demand should be influenced in the following manner is legitimate. The article discusses the targets, strategies, and instruments of marketing performed by the EU under the aspect of their efficiency concerning demand control. The discussion leads to e.g. the following results: that a marketing strategy for the sensible, responsible, and efficent use of energy, in the long-term, serves both the interests of the users and the interests of the EU; that such a marketing programme can have the required controlling effects especially with the help of strategies like market segmentation and cooperation. The discussion makes also clear that a demand-controlling marketing strategy of the EU can hardly be realized without a considerable change within the organization of the EU on one hand and, on the other, without expanding the marketing programme toward a marketing strategy of balance.

  6. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

  7. Electricity market design for the prosumer era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parag, Yael; Sovacool, Benjamin K.

    2016-04-01

    Prosumers are agents that both consume and produce energy. With the growth in small and medium-sized agents using solar photovoltaic panels, smart meters, vehicle-to-grid electric automobiles, home batteries and other ‘smart’ devices, prosuming offers the potential for consumers and vehicle owners to re-evaluate their energy practices. As the number of prosumers increases, the electric utility sector of today is likely to undergo significant changes over the coming decades, offering possibilities for greening of the system, but also bringing many unknowns and risks that need to be identified and managed. To develop strategies for the future, policymakers and planners need knowledge of how prosumers could be integrated effectively and efficiently into competitive electricity markets. Here we identify and discuss three promising potential prosumer markets related to prosumer grid integration, peer-to-peer models and prosumer community groups. We also caution against optimism by laying out a series of caveats and complexities.

  8. Renewable energy promotion in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlgemuth, Norbert

    1999-01-01

    The opening of electricity markets to competition involves fundamental structural changes in the electricity supply industry. There is, however, doubt that the new industrial organisation will provide the right price signals that will ensure that renewable energy options will be adopted. Therefore, one of the numerous challenges in the energy industry restructuring process is to ensure that renewable energy has a fair opportunity to compete with other supply resources. This paper presents mechanisms to promote the use of renewable energy in competitive electricity markets. These mechanisms include the Non Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFFO), the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) and the Systems Benefit Charge (SBC). The paper discusses merits and disadvantages of these mechanisms, given the experience made in the United States and the United Kingdom. (author)

  9. Volatility in the Housing Market: Evidence on Risk and Return in theLondon Sub-market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Cook

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of volatility in housing market analysis is reconsidered via examinaton ofthe risk-return relationship in the London housing market is examined. In addition to providing thefirst empirical results for the relationship between risk (as measured by volatility and returns forthis submarket, the analysis offers a more general message to empiricists via a detailed and explicitevaluation of the impact of empirical design decisions upon inferences. In particular, the negativerisk-return relationship discussed frequently in the housing market literature is examined and shown todepend upon typically overlooked decisions concerning components of the empirical framework fromwhich statistical inferences are drawn.

  10. Papers of a Canadian Institute conference : Western electricity markets forum : Are you prepared for regulatory restructuring and standard market design?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This forum on western electricity markets presented the latest information concerning several challenges facing the electricity markets of both Western Canada and the United States. Corporate leaders and industry regulators addressed a number of issues. Among them, the California Independent System Operator presented its views on the Standard Market Design initiative which has the potential to alter the dynamics of power markets in Canada and the United States. The creation of a new International Organization for Standardization (ISO) structure for Alberta's deregulated power markets was discussed by both the Power Pool of Alberta and the Alberta Department of Energy. The outlook for electricity price volatility in the west was examined in a presentation by BP Energy Canada. The prospect for transmission links between Alberta and other western states and provinces was the topic of presentations made by ATCO Electric and AltaLink. The future of the power generation in Alberta was discussed by TransAlta, EPCOR, and ENMAX. In addition, there were two case studies presented from the California Energy Commission and the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) of Ontario concerning the progress made to date on electricity deregulation. A look at lessons to be learned from other jurisdictions was also included. A total of sixteen presentations were made at this forum, of which five have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

    We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US...... economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market...... volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany....

  12. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  13. Nuclear power within liberalised electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kidd, Stephen W.

    2002-01-01

    Competition between various methods of generating electricity in liberalised markets means that all power plants must be cost-effective. The price of electricity from nuclear power includes all waste disposal and decommissioning costs, unlike other electricity generating technologies. Most existing nuclear power plants are likely to prosper under electricity liberalization. Many will receive operating life extensions and be able to compete in the electricity market for many years to come. Investment costs are particularly heavy for nuclear plants. Capital expenditure appraisal methodologies mean that such plants suffer financial disadvantages in times of high interest rates. Low and stable fuel costs are the prime advantage of nuclear plants against other sources of generating electricity. There will be significant demand for new generating capacity, both incremental and replacement, in the next 20 years. Under present conditions, where there is access to a stable and cheap supply of piped gas, nuclear and coal plants find it difficult to compete against gas-fired plants. The nuclear industry is addressing the need for new reactor designs, offering significant capital and operating cost reductions from the previous generation of reactors. This development and the need for carbon abatement on a worldwide basis offers nuclear plants a further economic advantage against alternative technologies. (author)

  14. EU Emission Allowances and the stock market Evidence from the electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes - to our best knowledge - the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our results suggest that EU Emission Allowance (EUA) price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms: EUA price changes and stock returns of the most important European electricity corporations are shown to be positively related. This effect does not work asymmetrically, so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to EUA appreciations in comparison to depreciations. The carbon market effect is shown to be both time- and country-specific: It is particularly strong for the period of EUA market shock in early 2006, and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered. Stock market reactions to EUA volatility could not be shown. (author)

  15. An Alternative Estimation of Market Volatility based on Fuzzy Transform

    OpenAIRE

    Troiano, Luigi; Villa, Elena Mejuto; Kriplani, Pravesh

    2017-01-01

    Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the application of fuzzy transform and its inverse as an alternative measure of volatility. The measure obtained is compatible with the definition of risk measure given by Luce. A comparison with standard definition is performed by considering the NIFTY 50 stock...

  16. International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility for emerging markets

    OpenAIRE

    Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Fabio; Spagnolo, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility, using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis eight Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Hong Kong, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan) over the period 1993:01-2012:11, and estimating a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model. We find that net equity (bond) inflows drive the exchange rate to a high (low) volatility state. ...

  17. Forecasting volatility in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets.

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Ming

    2011-01-01

    This paper analyses the forecasting performance of historical volatility models and GARCH-class models of Shenzhen component index, Shanghai composite index and Hang Seng index at weekly and daily frequency under both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Under symmetric loss functions exclude Theil-U and HR, results suggest that historical volatility models provide a much better forecast than GARCH-class models both in weekly and daily frequency. Under asymmetric loss functions historical...

  18. Electricity and gas market observatory 1. Quarter 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market). B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31. 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale gas market (Main steps in the French Wholesale gas market, Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market) C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  19. How to obtain high returns with lower volatility in emerging markets?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipun Agarwal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Emerging markets equity indexes are usually seen as high return with a high degree of volatility associated with them. However, this should not be the case, if you choose high-quality firms that have increasing returns and lower volatility. The intent of this paper is to introduce the risk weighted alpha (RWA indexation method that helps identify stocks that have stable increasing returns with lower volatility. In order to review this method in the context of emerging markets scenario, this paper takes the example of the Sensex index listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE that comprises India’s top 30 stocks by market capitalisation. Results show that some stocks like Hindustan Lever do show increasing returns and lower volatility. The RWA Sensex index outperforms the BSE Sensex index, while still maintaining a beta that is the same as that in the BSE Sensex index.

  20. Essays on competition in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

    The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

  1. On the evaluation of market power and market dominance-The Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellmer, Stefan; Warell, Linda

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies different concentration and dominance measures using structural indexes used to initially screen the competitive situation in a market. The Nordic and Swedish electricity markets are used as the empirical cases. Market concentration issues in the Nordic electricity market in general and in Sweden in particular have been, at least in initial screenings, approached by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). This article uses an alternative measure to HHI, which is based on market shares of the two largest firms in the market. The results shows that only the Swedish wholesale market has a firm that can be regarded as dominant, but only during very short periods. The results from a hypothetical merger between the second and third largest company in the Swedish wholesale market shows that when the dominant position of the largest firm is reduced, by increasing the size of the second largest firm, the threshold value indicates that competition actually will increase (contradicting to the HHI).

  2. Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  3. A Study of Demand Response Effect of Thermal Storage Air-Conditioning Systems in Consideration of Electricity Market Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omagari, Yuko; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

    This paper evaluates the economic impact of the introduction of customer-owned Thermal Storage Air-conditioning (TSA) systems, in an electricity market, from the viewpoint of the load service entity. We perform simulations on the condition that several thousand customers install TSA systems and shift peak demand in an electricity market by one percent. Our numerical results indicate that the purchase cost of the LSE was reduced through load management of customers with TSA systems. The introduction of TSA systems also reduced the volatility of market clearing price and reduced the whole-trade cost in an electricity market.

  4. Modelling electricity forward markets by ambit fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Fred Espen Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper proposes a new modelling framework for electricity forward markets, which is based on ambit fields. The new model can capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. One of the main differences to the traditional models lies in the fact that we do not model the dynamics......, but the forward price directly, where we focus on models which are stationary in time. We give a detailed account on the probabilistic properties of the new model and we discuss martingale conditions and change of measure within the new model class. Also, we derive a model for the spot price which is obtained...

  5. Risk-minimisation in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tegner, Martin; Ernstsen, Rune Ramsdal; Skajaa, Anders

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses risk management of fixed price, unspecified consumption contracts in energy markets. We model the joint dynamics of the spot-price and the consumption of electricity, study expected loss minimisation for different loss measures, and derive optimal static hedge strategies based...... on forward contracts. The strategies are implemented empirically and compared to a benchmark strategy widely used by the industry. On 2012–2014 Nordic market data, the suggested hedges significantly outperform the benchmark: The realised cumulative profit-and-losses are greater for almost every single one...

  6. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...

  7. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

  8. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  9. Testing the Relationship between Interest Rates Volatility and Market Capitalization: the case of Mauritius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edesiri Godsday Okoro

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper tests the relationship between interest rates volatility and market capitalization in Mauritius. Using annual time series data sourced from the Financial Services Commission Annual Statistical Bulletin of Mauritius during the period 2006 through 2010, data of interest rates volatility and market capitalization were estimated in a non-linear model using the Vector Auto-regression technique. The study found that interest rates volatility has significant effect on the level of market capitalization although a negative effect. This implies a negative relationship between interest rates volatility and market capitalization. Thus, if market capitalization is affected by interest rates, then the economy becomes highly susceptible to volatile external distress. This indicates some dangers for the economic survival of Mauritius. It was on this note that we recommended an effective policy aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic variable like interest rates, focusing at the same time on alternative measures of promoting market capitalization if aggregate economic growth must be harnessed. Policymakers should design the optimal policy mix that would help the nation cope efficiently with the economic and social costs of the external distress accompanying higher and dwindling interest rates in Mauritius.

  10. 2008 Annual Report of SGCC on Electricity Market Transactions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    On April 14,2009,the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) held the press conference in Beijing on electricity market transactions and then released the "2008 Annual Report of SGCC on Electricity Market Transactions".

  11. Capacity choices in liberalised electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro-Rodriguez, Fidel; Marin, Pedro L.; Siotis, Georges

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of investment in electricity generation in the context of a liberalised market. We use the main results derived from a theoretical model where firms invest strategically to simulate the Spanish electricity system with real-world data. Our results indicate that, under reasonable parameter constellations regarding the number of agents, the level of capacity resulting from private decisions falls well short of the social optimum. Last, we show that two regulatory mechanisms that have been used to generate additional incentives for private agents to install capacity (capacity payment and price-adder) are ineffective and/or prohibitively costly.

  12. Electricity market liberalisation: a difficult undertaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graber, W.

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the options available for the implementation of discrimination-free cost allocation for the transport of energy in a liberalised Swiss electricity market. The advantages and disadvantages of two models - the distance-dependent 'path' model and the connection-point model - are discussed. Experience already gained in Germany, England, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Austria is discussed. The structure of the Swiss electricity grid with its seven tiers is looked at. The methods of splitting the transport costs between producers and consumers and also between the various layers of the grid are examined and functions for the matching of load and production are discussed

  13. Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

  14. Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

  15. Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

  16. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  17. Electricity and gas market observatory. 3. Quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. The present observatory is including residential customer's statistics. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  18. VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Panagiotou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

  19. Electricity Markets Ontology to Support MASCEM's Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Gabriel; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2016-01-01

    the several issues related to these systems, including the involved players that act in this domain. To take better advantage of these systems, their integration is mandatory. The main contribution of this paper is the development of the Electricity Markets Ontology, which integrates the essential concepts...... necessary to interpret all the available information related to electricity markets, while enabling an easier cooperation and adequate communication between related systems. Additionally, the concepts and rules defined by this ontology can be extended and complemented according to the needs of other......Power systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. The increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Multi-agent based simulation platforms have proven to be a good option to study...

  20. Flexibility-enabling Contracts in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boscan, Luis; Poudineh, Rahmatallah

    As the share of intermittent renewable energy increases in the generation mix, power systems are exposed to greater levels of uncertainty and risk, which requires planners, policy and business decision makers to incentivise flexibility, that is: their adaptability to unforeseen variations....... Additionally, along with traditional sources, which already enable flexibility, a number of business models, such as thermostat-based demand response, aggregators and small storage providers, are emerging in electricity markets and expected to constitute important sources of flexibility in future decentralised...... power systems. However, due to presence of high transaction costs, relative to the size of resource, the emerging small resources cannot directly participate in an organised electricity market and/or compete. This paper asks the fundamental question of how should the provision of flexibility, as a multi...

  1. Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

    1996-01-01

    In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

  2. Insuring unit failures in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineda, S.; Conejo, A.J.; Carrion, M.

    2010-01-01

    An electric energy producer participates in futures markets in the hope of hedging the risk of trading in the pool. However, this producer is required to supply the energy associated with all its signed forward contracts even if some of its units are forced out due to unexpected failures. In this case, the producer must purchase some of the energy needed to meet its futures market commitments in the pool, which may result in high losses if the pool prices happen to be higher than the forward contract prices. To mitigate these losses, the producer can take out insurance against the forced outages of its units. Using a stochastic programming model, this paper analyzes the convenience of signing an insurance against unit failure by an electric energy producer and its impact on forward contracting decisions. Results from a realistic case study are provided and analyzed.

  3. Bootstrapping pre-averaged realized volatility under market microstructure noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hounyo, Ulrich; Goncalves, Sílvia; Meddahi, Nour

    The main contribution of this paper is to propose a bootstrap method for inference on integrated volatility based on the pre-averaging approach of Jacod et al. (2009), where the pre-averaging is done over all possible overlapping blocks of consecutive observations. The overlapping nature of the pre......-averaged returns implies that these are kn-dependent with kn growing slowly with the sample size n. This motivates the application of a blockwise bootstrap method. We show that the "blocks of blocks" bootstrap method suggested by Politis and Romano (1992) (and further studied by Bühlmann and Künsch (1995......)) is valid only when volatility is constant. The failure of the blocks of blocks bootstrap is due to the heterogeneity of the squared pre-averaged returns when volatility is stochastic. To preserve both the dependence and the heterogeneity of squared pre-averaged returns, we propose a novel procedure...

  4. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Vehviläinen, Iivo

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price mo...

  5. Demand Response Within Current Electricity Wholesale Market Design

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Gutierrez, Ariana Isabel; De Jonghe, Cedric; Six, Daan; Belmans, Ronnie

    2013-01-01

    The introduction of intermittent energy resources calls for the ability to modulate consumption patterns according to electricity availability. This paper provides a brief overview of the main electricity market design characteristics and places demand response within the framework of the existing timeline of market operation. The main differences between electricity markets lie in the price formation mechanisms where some markets pay-as- cleared and some pay- as- bid for the electricity tran...

  6. Volatility forecasting for low-volatility portfolio selection in the US and the Korean equity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Saejoon

    2018-01-01

    We consider the problem of low-volatility portfolio selection which has been the subject of extensive research in the field of portfolio selection. To improve the currently existing techniques that rely purely on past information to select low-volatility portfolios, this paper investigates the use of time series regression techniques that make forecasts of future volatility to select the portfolios. In particular, for the first time, the utility of support vector regression and its enhancements as portfolio selection techniques is provided. It is shown that our regression-based portfolio selection provides attractive outperformances compared to the benchmark index and the portfolio defined by a well-known strategy on the data-sets of the S&P 500 and the KOSPI 200.

  7. The properties of realized volatility and realized correlation: Evidence from the Indian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos; Vortelinos, Dimitrios I.; Saha, Shrabani

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the properties of realized volatility and correlation series in the Indian stock market by employing daily data converting to monthly frequency of five different stock indices from January 2, 2006 to November 30, 2014. Using non-parametric estimation technique the properties examined include normality, long-memory, asymmetries, jumps, and heterogeneity. The realized volatility is a useful technique which provides a relatively accurate measure of volatility based on the actual variance which is beneficial for asset management in particular for non-speculative funds. The results show that realized volatility and correlation series are not normally distributed, with some evidence of persistence. Asymmetries are also evident in both volatilities and correlations. Both jumps and heterogeneity properties are significant; whereas, the former is more significant than the latter. The findings show that properties of volatilities and correlations in Indian stock market have similarities as that show in the stock markets in developed countries such as the stock market in the United States which is more prevalent for speculative business traders.

  8. Electricity markets. Investment, performance and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, B.

    1998-01-01

    The impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment appraisal is addressed in this comprehensive treatment of the restructuring of the electricity supply industry. Demonstrating that the classical approach to generation investment appraisal is no longer valid, a new approach is developed using three economic models to represent differing market conditions. Highlighting the impact on the organisation of the utilities and their suppliers, this book offers essential advice for survival in the deregulated environment worldwide. (author)

  9. The creation of a global electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DePinto, D.; Anderson, A.

    1998-01-01

    The global embrace of market-based economics has led to significant growth and prosperity resulting in increased needs for electricity. The burgeoning demand for energy has created requirements for capital investment at time when the state-owned energy companies cannot provide it. Governments, busy trying to find ways to manage already inflated debt burdens, have little capacity for funding the capital needed to expand energy production. In these strategic industries, governments are beginning to embrace the principles of free market capitalism and private ownership, recognizing the significant benefits to be realized: reduced national deficits, a more efficient energy sector, access to foreign capital, greater internal capital generation, and more energy to fuel economic growth. This is driving the governments to embrace privatization and is creating a market for the sale of electric utilities. On the other side of this equation are the fast developing global electric companies that are prepared to expand in both developing and developed countries through significant acquisitions of either companies or strategic assets. This scenario is further enhanced as the Independent Power Developers chase projects from Brazil to China and bring competition to the development of new generation. Never before has there been such a movement to the complete transformation of the energy industry. Countries on every continent are exploring how they can reform and restructure the energy sector. The analysis will address: Global transformation sweeping the various regions of the world; Impact on developers and the strategy required for success; Global electric companies and their impact on the transformation process; and Future of the electric power industry: Will it bring the world closer together?

  10. Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shijie

    The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

  11. Electricity market competition and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varley, C.; Paffenbarger, J.

    1999-01-01

    Throughout the world, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries' governments are promoting competitive electricity markets. In particular, there is a move away from administrative price-setting by government institutions to market price-setting through the introduction of competition. Today this is often focused on competition in generation. However, competition among final electricity suppliers and distributors to provide effective consumer choice is a further step that governments are likely to pursue as experience with market reform grows. This competitive environment will undoubtedly impact upon the nuclear generation industry. Competition will provide an opportunity to reinvigorate nuclear power; it will improve the transparency of energy policy-making and the policy framework for nuclear power; it will spur innovation in existing plants and help prospects for new plant build; and provide a strong impetus for cost reduction and innovation. This paper discusses these issues in detail. It looks at the potential benefits and challenges to the nuclear generation industry arising from an increasingly competitive market. (author)

  12. Bulgarian electricity market and the large-scale industrial customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, P.; Kanev, K.; Dyankov, M.; Minkov, N.

    2003-01-01

    The paper focuses on a brief overview of the Bulgarian Electricity Market Design and steps toward its development, as well as on preliminary analyses for market opening and influence of large industrial customers to system and market operation. (author)

  13. Reforming European electricity industries: to each, his own ''single market''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glachant, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    National transpositions of the European directive on domestic electricity markets have maintained a degree of diversity; and this also characterizes the other conditions for accessing national electricity markets (physical, commercial, industrial and capital access). As a look at the prices of electricity shows, these national markets do not operate in a single way Europe-wide. Furthermore, electricity companies - key actors in this competition - differ widely from each other in size, electrical potential, investment portfolios and strategies for growth. (authors)

  14. Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. Quarter 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  15. Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at March 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the first quarter 2008); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  16. Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at December 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31. 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  17. The Effect of Divestitures in the German Electricity Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weigt, H.; Willems, Bert

    2011-01-01

    In the most liberalized electricity markets, abuse of market power is a concern related to oligopolistic market structures, flaws in market architecture, and the specific characteristics of electricity generation and demand. Several methods have been suggested to improve the competitiveness of the

  18. The Effect of Divestitures in the German Electricity Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weigt, H.; Willems, Bert

    2011-01-01

    In most liberalized electricity markets, abuse of market power is a concern related to oligopolistic market structures, flaws in market architecture, and the specific characteristics of electricity generation and demand. Several methods have been suggested to improve the competitiveness of the

  19. Price volatility and banking in green certificate markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amundsen, Eirik Schrøder; Baldursson, Fridrik M.; Mortensen, Jørgen Birk

    2006-01-01

    the paper shows that the introduction of banking of GCs may reduce price volatility considerably and lead to increased social surplus. Banking lowers average prices and is therefore not necessarily to the benefit of 'green producers'. Prooposed price bounds on GC-prices will reduce the importance of banking...

  20. Response Asymmetry in Spillover Volatility: an Empirical Study in the Indonesia and Singapore Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Siti Saadah

    2013-01-01

    Following the blueprint of the ASEAN integration 2015, the integration of the financial markets in this region will increase. This study investigates the existence of a volatility spillover from the Singaporean stock market into Indonesia, including its transmission pattern. Singapore, as an advanced country in the ASEAN region, has played an important role as the information leader in the market of this region, so that it is very possible that the shocks in the Singapore’s stock mark...

  1. Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. Quarter 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). The present observatory is dedicated only to eligible customers before 1 July 2007, i.e. non-residential customers. Statistics related to residential customers will be published in the next observatory (1 December 2007). Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking fact of the second quarter 2007); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

  2. Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

    OpenAIRE

    Dahiru A. Bala; Taro Takimoto

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs) using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH) models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009) on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs) are lower compared w...

  3. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  4. Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

    2006-01-01

    The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

  5. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  6. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-01-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  7. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  8. Green light for the opening of the French electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alary-Grall, L.

    2000-01-01

    The French market of electricity is progressively opening to competitiveness. A recent act of parliament allows main industrialists to choose their electricity suppliers, this choice concerns only one third of the electricity market. A regulatory authority has been set up to assure a fair competition and a fair access to the French distribution network for electricity producers. (A.C.)

  9. Realistic electricity market simulator for energy and economic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.; Contreras, Javier; Conejo, Antonio J.; Martin-Flores, Raul

    2007-01-01

    Electricity market simulators have become a useful tool to train engineers in the power industry. With the maturing of electricity markets throughout the world, there is a need for sophisticated software tools that can replicate the actual behavior of power markets. In most of these markets, power producers/consumers submit production/demand bids and the Market Operator clears the market producing a single price per hour. What makes markets different from each other are the bidding rules and the clearing algorithms to balance the market. This paper presents a realistic simulator of the day-ahead electricity market of mainland Spain. All the rules that govern this market are modeled. This simulator can be used either to train employees by power companies or to teach electricity markets courses in universities. To illustrate the tool, several realistic case studies are presented and discussed. (author)

  10. Electricity Markets, Smart Grids and Smart Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcey, Jonathan M.

    A smart grid is an electricity network that accommodates two-way power flows, and utilizes two-way communications and increased measurement, in order to provide more information to customers and aid in the development of a more efficient electricity market. The current electrical network is outdated and has many shortcomings relating to power flows, inefficient electricity markets, generation/supply balance, a lack of information for the consumer and insufficient consumer interaction with electricity markets. Many of these challenges can be addressed with a smart grid, but there remain significant barriers to the implementation of a smart grid. This paper proposes a novel method for the development of a smart grid utilizing a bottom up approach (starting with smart buildings/campuses) with the goal of providing the framework and infrastructure necessary for a smart grid instead of the more traditional approach (installing many smart meters and hoping a smart grid emerges). This novel approach involves combining deterministic and statistical methods in order to accurately estimate building electricity use down to the device level. It provides model users with a cheaper alternative to energy audits and extensive sensor networks (the current methods of quantifying electrical use at this level) which increases their ability to modify energy consumption and respond to price signals The results of this method are promising, but they are still preliminary. As a result, there is still room for improvement. On days when there were no missing or inaccurate data, this approach has R2 of about 0.84, sometimes as high as 0.94 when compared to measured results. However, there were many days where missing data brought overall accuracy down significantly. In addition, the development and implementation of the calibration process is still underway and some functional additions must be made in order to maximize accuracy. The calibration process must be completed before a reliable

  11. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  12. Effects of interruptible load program on equilibrium outcomes of electricity markets with wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Xuena; Zhang, Shaohua; Li, Xue [Shanghai Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Power Station Automation Technology

    2013-07-01

    High wind power penetration presents a lot of challenges to the flexibility and reliability of power system operation. In this environment, various demand response (DR) programs have got much attention. As an effective measure of demand response programs, interruptible load (IL) programs have been widely used in electricity markets. This paper addresses the problem of impacts of the IL programs on the equilibrium outcomes of electricity wholesale markets with wind power. A Cournot equilibrium model of wholesale markets with wind power is presented, in which IL programs is included by a market demand model. The introduction of the IL programs leads to a non-smooth equilibrium problem. To solve this equilibrium problem, a novel solution method is proposed. Numerical examples show that IL programs can lower market price and its volatility significantly, facilitate the integration of wind power.

  13. Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy and agricultural commodities and markets have been examined extensively, albeit separately, for a number of years. In the energy literature, the returns, volatility and volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, among alternative energy commodities, such as oil, gasoline and ethanol across different markets, have been analysed using a variety of univariate and multivariate models, estimation techniques, data sets, and time frequencies. A similar comment applies to the separate theoretical and empirical analysis of a wide range of agricultural commodities and markets. Given the recent interest and emphasis in bio-fuels and green energy, especially bio-ethanol, which is derived from a range of agricultural products, it is not surprising that there is a topical and developing literature on the spillovers between energy and agricultural markets. Modelling and testing spillovers between the energy and agricultural markets has typically been based on estimating multivariate conditional volatility models, specifically the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC models. A serious technical deficiency is that the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimates (QMLE of a Full BEKK matrix, which is typically estimated in examining volatility spillover effects, has no asymptotic properties, except by assumption, so that no valid statistical test of volatility spillovers is possible. Some papers in the literature have used the DCC model to test for volatility spillovers. However, it is well known in the financial econometrics literature that the DCC model has no regularity conditions, and that the QMLE of the parameters of DCC has no asymptotic properties, so that there is no valid statistical testing of volatility spillovers. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the theory and practice in testing for volatility spillovers

  14. Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

    OpenAIRE

    Qingyou Yan; Chao Qin; Mingjian Nie; Le Yang

    2018-01-01

    Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was construct...

  15. Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Bui Quang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

  16. Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Shamiri, Ahmed; Shaari, Abu Hassan; Isa, Zaidi

    2007-01-01

    Being able to choose most suitable volatility model and distribution specification is a more demanding task. This paper introduce an analyzing procedure using the Kullback-Leibler information criteria (KLIC) as a statistical tool to evaluate and compare the predictive abilities of possibly misspecified density forecast models. The main advantage of this statistical tool is that we use the censored likelihood functions to compute the tail minimum of the KLIC, to compare the performance of a de...

  17. The benefits of integrating European electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newbery, David; Strbac, Goran; Viehoff, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission's Target Electricity Model (TEM) aims to integrate EU electricity markets. This paper estimates the potential benefit of coupling interconnectors to increase the efficiency of trading day-ahead, intra-day and balancing services across borders. Further gains are possible by eliminating unscheduled flows and avoiding the curtailment of renewables with better market design. In the short run the gains could be as high as €3.9 billion/yr, more than 100% of the current gains from trade. About one-quarter of this total comes from day-ahead coupling and another third from shared balancing. If shared balancing is so valuable, completing the TEM becomes more urgent, and regulators should ensure these gains are paid to interconnectors to make the needed investment in the cross-border links more commercially profitable. - Highlights: •The benefits from day-ahead market coupling are €1 bn/yr. •Intra-day and balancing benefits add a further €1.3 bn/yr. •Total benefits including removing unscheduled flows could be €3.4 bn/yr. •Sharing balancing and reserves is high priority. •Rewarding interconnectors for all services reduces barriers to expansion.

  18. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  19. Methods for Estimation of Market Power in Electric Power Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcik, M.; Oleinikova, I.; Junghans, G.; Kolcun, M.

    2012-01-01

    The article is related to a topical issue of the newly-arisen market power phenomenon in the electric power industry. The authors point out to the importance of effective instruments and methods for credible estimation of the market power on liberalized electricity market as well as the forms and consequences of market power abuse. The fundamental principles and methods of the market power estimation are given along with the most common relevant indicators. Furthermore, in the work a proposal for determination of the relevant market place taking into account the specific features of power system and a theoretical example of estimating the residual supply index (RSI) in the electricity market are given.

  20. Incomplete Continuous-time Securities Markets with Stochastic Income Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    We derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium interest rate and market price of risk processes in an incomplete continuous-time market with uncertainty generated by Brownian motions. The economy has a finite number of heterogeneous exponential utility investors, who receive partially...

  1. Market prices for solar electricity in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2006-01-01

    The Ontario electricity supply is facing considerable challenges while demand is increasing due to a growing population and increased economic growth needs. In response to these challenges, the government of Ontario established the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) in 2004 to ensure adequate, reliable and secure electricity supply and resources in Ontario. The OPA has also engaged in activities to facilitate the diversification of sources of electricity supply by promoting the use of cleaner energy sources and technologies, including alternative energy sources and renewable energy. The purpose of this paper was to advance discussions regarding the contribution that solar PV can make to Ontario's supply mix. In particular, it determined the value of the electricity that would have been produced by a PV system located in Waterloo, Ontario under the following 4 pricing regimes: (1) the conventional small user tariff system currently in place in Ontario, (2) the time-of-use pricing system that is voluntarily available to those who have smart meters installed in their facilities, (3) the spot market, hourly prices, to which some of Ontario's largest electricity users are exposed, and (4) the recently-proposed rate for standard offer contracts for PV systems. The study showed that a solar PV system that produces 3,000 kWh of electricity over the course of a year would generate different revenue amounts, ranging from the smallest amount of approximately $174.00 to $1,260.00, depending on the pricing regime. The pricing regime that reflects real, time-of-day electricity prices appears to be most advantageous to solar PV systems. It was recommended that additional work is needed regarding the other benefits of solar PV, such as avoided capacity/generation needs, avoided transmission and distribution cost and losses, environmental benefits, and job creation. 3 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs

  2. Effects of Daylight Saving Time changes on stock market volatility: a reply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet

    2011-12-01

    There is a rich array of evidence that suggests that changes in sleeping patterns affect an individual's decision-making processes. A nationwide sleeping-pattern change happens twice a year when the Daylight Saving Time (DST) change occurs. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi argued in 2000 that a DST change lowers stock market returns. This study presents evidence that DST changes affect the relationship between stock market return and volatility. Empirical evidence suggests that the positive relationship between return and volatility becomes negative on the Mondays following DST changes.

  3. Strategies for Charging Electric Vehicles in the Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Nina; Pantuso, Giovanni; Iversen, Jan Emil Banning

    2015-01-01

    . We show that all vehicle owners will benefit from acting more intelligently on the energy market. Furthermore, the high value of the stochastic solution shows that, in case the regulating price differs from the expected, the solution to the deterministic problem becomes infeasible.......This paper analyses different charging strategies for a fleet of electric vehicles. Along with increasing the realism of the strategies, the opportunity for acting on the regulating market is also included. We test the value of a vehicle owner that can choose when and how to charge; by presenting...... optimally in response to predicted spot prices, and – in some settings – additional gains from using the up and down regulating prices. Particularly, strategies are chosen from uncontrolled charging through deterministic optimization, to modelling the charging and bidding problem with stochastic programming...

  4. Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jung-Yeon; Ahn, Nam-Sung; Yoon, Yong-Beum; Koh, Kyung-Ho; Bunn, Derek W.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a model-based analysis of the effects of various capacity incentive systems on new investment in the Korean electricity market. The restructuring process in Korea allocated power generation to six firms, competing within a wholesale market, albeit strictly on a cost basis. Because of this cost-based pool, capacity payments were also introduced to encourage new investment. However, it is an open question whether the current fixed capacity payment scheme is enough to secure resource adequacy, and consideration is being given to alternative mechanisms such as the use of LOLP. Using a detailed market simulation model, based on system dynamics, we compare these approaches in terms of how they may influence the investors' decisions and thereby determine the system reserve margin. The simulation results suggest that there may be serious problems in staying with the current fixed capacity payments in order to achieve resource adequacy. In contrast, an LOLP-based capacity mechanism may, in the longer term, increase the reserve margin compared with a fixed capacity payment. More generally, this paper indicates how crucial the effective modeling of the investment behavior of the independent power producers is for adequate policy support, even if they only constitute a fringe in a substantially centrally influenced market

  5. Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    David Brown

    2018-01-01

    Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market.There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure wo...

  6. Markets and pricing for interruptible electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gedra, T.W.; Varaiya, P.P.

    1993-01-01

    The authors propose a market for interruptible, or callable, forward contracts for electric power, in which the consumer grants the power supplier the right to interrupt a given unit of load in return for a price discount. The callable forward contracts are traded continuously until the time of use. This allows recourse for those customers with uncertain demand, while risk-averse consumers can minimize their price risk by purchasing early. Callable forward contracts are simple in form, and can be directly incorporated into the utility's economic dispatch procedure

  7. Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.

    2013-01-01

    We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further......, the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations...

  8. Nuclear power in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Economic deregulation in the power sector raises new challenges for the prospects of nuclear power. A key issue is to assess whether nuclear power can be competitive in a de-regulated electricity market. Other important considerations include safety, nuclear liability and insurance, the nuclear power infrastructure, and health and environmental protection. This study, conducted by a group of experts from twelve OECD Member countries and three international organisations, provides a review and analysis of these issues, as related to both existing and future nuclear power plants. It will be of particular interest to energy analysts, as well as to policy makers in the nuclear and government sectors. (author)

  9. Nodal pricing in a coupled electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a pricing model for an electricity market with a hybrid congestion management method, i.e. part of the system applies a nodal pricing scheme and the rest applies a zonal pricing scheme. The model clears the zonal and nodal pricing areas simultaneously. The nodal pricing area is affected by the changes in the zonal pricing area since it is directly connected to the zonal pricing area by commercial trading. The model is tested on a 13-node power system. Within the area t...

  10. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  11. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

    2010-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  12. Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

  13. Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

    2016-11-01

    We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

  14. Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haixia, Wu; Shiping, Li

    2013-01-01

    Price volatility spillovers among China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets are analyzed based on weekly price data from September 5, 2003 to August 31, 2012, employing the univariate EGARCH model and the BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008. In the overall sample period, the results simultaneously provide strong evidence that there exist unidirectional spillover effects from the crude oil market to the corn and fuel ethanol markets, and double-directional spillovers between the corn market and the fuel ethanol market. However, the spillover effects from the corn and fuel ethanol markets to the crude oil market are not significant. -- Highlights: •Employing univariate EGARCH model and BEKK-MVGARCH model, respectively. Unidirectional spillover effects from crude oil market to corn and fuel ethanol markets. •Double-directional spillovers between corn market and fuel ethanol market. •The spillover effects from corn and fuel ethanol markets to crude oil market are not significant. •The empirical results indicate a higher interaction among crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets after September, 2008

  15. Leverage effect in financial markets: the retarded volatility model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchaud, J P; Matacz, A; Potters, M

    2001-11-26

    We investigate quantitatively the so-called "leverage effect," which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks this correlation is moderate and decays over 50 days, while for stock indices it is much stronger but decays faster. For individual stocks the magnitude of this correlation has a universal value that can be rationalized in terms of a new "retarded" model which interpolates between a purely additive and a purely multiplicative stochastic process. For stock indices a specific amplification phenomenon seems to be necessary to account for the observed amplitude of the effect.

  16. U.S. Renewable Electricity Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US green energy market is broken up into two main groups: the mandatory markets including state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and voluntary markets, also referred to as green power markets.  This page delineates this two markets.

  17. From Market Uncertainty to Policy Uncertainty for Investment in Power Generation: Real Options for NPP on Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomsic, Zeljko

    2014-01-01

    In the electricity sector, market participants must make decisions about capacity choice in a situation of radical uncertainty about future market conditions. Sector is normally characterised by non-storability and periodic and stochastic demand fluctuations. In these cases capacity determination is a decision for the long term, whereas production is adjusted in the short run. Capacities need to be installed well in advance (decision for investment even earlier because of long construction time and even longer in case of NPP to prepare all needed legal, financial and physical infrastructure), at times when firms face considerable demand and cost uncertainty when choosing their capacity. Paper looks on the main contributions in investment planning under uncertainty, in particular in the electricity market for capital intensive investments like NPP. The relationship between market and non-market factors (recent UK policy example) in determining investment signals in competitive electricity markets was analysed. Paper analyse the ability of competitive electricity markets to deliver the desired quantity and type of generation capacity and also investigates the variety of market imperfections operating in electricity generation and their impact on long-term dynamics for generation capacity, the most capital-intensive of the liberalised functions in the electricity supply industry. Paper analyses how price formation influences investment signals. Today, investment decisions are made by several operators that act independently. Number of factors (including market power, wholesale price volatility, lack of liquidity in the wholesale and financial market, policy and regulatory risks etc.) contribute to polluting the price signal and generating sub-optimal behaviour. Climate change policies can easily distort market signals, insulating renewables generation from market dynamics. This in turn reduces the proportion of the market that is effectively opened to competitive

  18. Electricity trade under financial market supervision; Der Stromhandel unter Finanzmarktaufsicht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagena, Martin

    2011-07-01

    With the competitive opening of the electricity market at European and national level, the goods electricity became a freely traded commodity. The author of the contribution under consideration describes the legal consequences related to financial market for trading electricity in the context of the current Directive 2004/39/EC now under consideration of the commodity futures trading in its representational scope. The statements clearly indicate that the power market is a goods market with its own laws and not a classical financial market. It considers what characteristics exist in electricity trading and whether and how they are considered for regulatory purposes.

  19. The influence of volatility spill-overs and market beta on portfolio construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Heymans

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study adds to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT by providing an additional measure to market beta in constructing a more efficient investment portfolio. The additional measure analyses the volatility spill-over effects among stocks within the same portfolio. Using intraday stock returns from five top-40 listed stocks on the JSE between July 2008 and April 2010, volatility spill-over effects were estimated with a residual- based test (aggregate shock [AS] model framework. It is shown that when a particular stock attracted fewer volatility spill-over effects from the other stocks in the portfolio, the overall portfolio volatility decreased as well. In most cases market beta showcased similar results. Therefore, in order to construct a more efficient risk- adjusted portfolio, one requires both a portfolio that has a unit correlation with the market (beta-based, and stocks that showcase the least amount of volatility spill-over effects amongst one another. These results might assist portfolio managers to construct lower mean variance portfolios.

  20. Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamagami, Tomoki

    Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

  1. Liberalization of the Flemish market for electricity and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In this first report of the Flemish Regulating Institute for the Electricity and Natural Gas Market (VREG) only attention is paid to the market for electricity. Every 3 months a state of the art will be given of the liberalization process of the energy market in Flanders [nl

  2. The electricity market in Croatia and eligible customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucic, D.; Baric, A.; Tomasic-Skevin, S.

    2003-01-01

    The paper first presents the model and main characteristics of the Croatian electricity market concerning eligible customers. The first phase of the market opening and the estimated inclusion of eligible customers as well as independent suppliers are also described. Presumed steps of opening of the electricity market are given.(author)

  3. Energy market for energy. Natural gas and electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Scherpenzeel, H.; De Boer, I.

    2000-10-01

    The aim of the title market study is to provide insight into the energy market in Argentina for the Dutch industry and business sector, focusing on the structure of the natural gas and electricity sector and the market for equipment for the production and processing of natural gas and equipment for electricity generation

  4. Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

    2009-01-01

    Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

  5. On the volatility-volume relationship in energy futures markets using intra-day data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between trading volume and price volatility in the crude oil and natural gas futures markets when using high-frequency data. By regressing various realized volatility measures (with/without jumps) on trading volume and trading frequency, our results feature a contemporaneous and largely positive relationship. Furthermore, we test whether the volatility-volume relationship is symmetric for energy futures by considering positive and negative realized semi-variance. We show that (i) an asymmetric volatility-volume relationship indeed exists, (ii) trading volume and trading frequency significantly affect negative and positive realized semi-variance, and (iii) the information content of negative realized semi-variance is higher than for positive realized semi-variance. (authors)

  6. Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Abdul Qayyum; Saba Anwa

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the linkages between the monetary policy and the stock market in Pakistan. The estimation technique employed includes Engle Granger two step procedure and the bivariate EGARCH method. The results indicate that any change in the monetary policy stance have a significant impact on the volatility of the stock market. Thus contributing to the ongoing debate in the monetary policy rule literature regarding the proactive and reactive approach.

  7. Risk management of power supply in open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rinta-Runsala, E.; Kiviniemi, J.

    1999-12-01

    The open electricity market has increased the need of risk management in electric utilities. In this publication the concepts of risk assessment and measures mostly concentrating on market risks for power supply companies are reported. An essential past of the risk management includes the electricity derivates and trade

  8. Design of reactive power procurement in deregulated electricity market

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reactive power management is different in the deregulated electricity market of various countries. In this paper, a novel reactive power procurement model is proposed, which ensure secure and reliable operation of deregulated electricity market. Various issues of reactive power management in the deregulated electricity ...

  9. Comovements of Returns and Volatility in International Stock Markets: A High-Frequency Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piplack, J.; Beine, M.; Candelon, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes common factors in the continuous volatility component, co-extreme and co-jump behavior of a sample of stock market indices. In order to identify those components in stock price processes during a trading day we use high-frequency data and techniques. We show that in most of the

  10. Price and volatility transmissions between natural gas, fertilizer, and corn markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, Xiaoli Liao; Trujillo-Barrera, Andrés; Wiggins, Seth

    2016-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price and volatility transmission between natural gas, fertilizer (ammonia), and corn markets, an issue that has been traditionally ignored in the literature despite its significant importance. Design/methodology/approach – The authors

  11. Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gontis, V.; Havlin, S.; Kononovicius, A.; Podobnik, B.; Stanley, H. E.

    2016-11-01

    We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive macroscopic equations based on the microscopic herding interactions of agents and find that they are able to reproduce various stylized facts of different markets and different assets with the same set of model parameters. We show that the power-law properties and the scaling of return intervals and other financial variables have a similar origin and could be a result of a general class of non-linear stochastic differential equations derived from a master equation of an agent system that is coupled by herding interactions. Specifically, we find that this approach enables us to recover the volatility return interval statistics as well as volatility probability and spectral densities for the NYSE and FOREX markets, for different assets, and for different time-scales. We find also that the historical S&P500 monthly series exhibits the same volatility return interval properties recovered by our proposed model. Our statistical results suggest that human herding is so strong that it persists even when other evolving fluctuations perturbate the financial system.

  12. Hedging strategies in energy markets: the case of electricity retailers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boroumand, Raphael Homayoun; Goutte, Stephane; Porcher, Simon; Porcher, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    As market intermediaries, electricity retailers buy electricity from the wholesale market or self-generate for re(sale) on the retail market. Electricity retailers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any time of the day until they actually turn switches on. While demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets, retailers generally rely on storage to manage demand uncertainty. On electricity markets, retailers are exposed to joint quantity and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical singularity of electricity as a commodity. In the literature on electricity markets, few articles deals on intra-day hedging portfolios to manage joint price and quantity risk whereas electricity markets are hourly markets. The contributions of the article are twofold. First, we define through a VaR and CVaR model optimal portfolios for specific hours (3 a.m., 6 a.m.,...,12 p.m.) based on electricity market data from 2001 to 2011 for the French market. We prove that the optimal hedging strategy differs depending on the cluster hour. Secondly, we demonstrate the significantly superior efficiency of intra-day hedging portfolios over daily (therefore weekly and yearly) portfolios. Over a decade (2001-2011), our results clearly show that the losses of an optimal daily portfolio are at least nine times higher than the losses of optimal intra-day portfolios. (authors)

  13. Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanin, Maria Eugenia; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria; Violante, Francesco

    the fitness of the model, we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process. We improve the model's performance by introducing a time-varying jump probability that is explained by two variables: the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the European Commission...... periods. Thus, authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability....

  14. Incomplete Continuous-Time Securities Markets with Stochastic Income Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper

    In an incomplete continuous-time securities market governed by Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium risk-free rate and equity premium processes. The economy has a finite number of heterogeneous exponential utility investors, who receive partially unspanned income ...

  15. Policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Patricia; Van Ackere, Ann

    2009-01-01

    Capacity of supply is a crucial matter in electricity markets as it directly influences reliability of supply, price volatility and blackout risk. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market and the impact of different policies such as nuclear phaseout and management of electricity exchanges - imports and exports - policies. This article develops the conceptualization model presented in [Ochoa, P., 2007b. Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: a system dynamics analysis of likely market responses. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 41 (4):336-349.]. We build a system dynamics model based on the dynamics of capacity expansion explained in the latter paper and present and analyse different scenarios. We conclude that international electricity exchanges are important for the Swiss market as they help to lower costs and to increase the income of the utility companies; however, we illustrate the need for explicit policies for managing imports and exports of electricity to avoid import dependence from neighbouring countries. (author)

  16. Engineering Electricity Markets for a Decarbonized Energy System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jenle, Rasmus Ploug; Pallesen, Trine

    Decarbonization of the Danish electricity sector has recently been sought achieved through the introduction of a novel retail electricity market, named EcoGrid, designed to create price responsive consumers. By following the market design process undertaken by engineers at the Technical Universit...... of introducing synthetic markets as means of governance.......Decarbonization of the Danish electricity sector has recently been sought achieved through the introduction of a novel retail electricity market, named EcoGrid, designed to create price responsive consumers. By following the market design process undertaken by engineers at the Technical University...... of Denmark, the analysis addresses the question: how do engineers make markets? The answer to this question as presented here is: engineers design control systems. By tracing the origins of EcoGrid, this paper documents the governing of electricity consumers through a ‘synthetic market’, i.e. a market...

  17. The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinemann, Ronald

    2014-01-01

    One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

  18. The new electricity trading arrangements: prospects for market development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    1999-09-01

    This Briefing Paper from OXERA argues that the OFGEM proposals will not solve the fundamental market problems and might even make things worse. They focus too narrowly on the technical design of one small part of the market (the Balancing Mechanism and associated imbalance settlement process), without considering the market context and dynamics. OXERA argues that the central emphasis of the White Paper was misplaced: reform of the electricity trading arrangements, the basis of the government's strategy, will not solve the upstream and downstream market problems. The Briefing Paper includes analysis of: the structure and operation of the proposed new electricity trading arrangements; risk in the electricity wholesale market, and the responses of market participants; the interaction between the new trading arrangements and other energy market developments - in particular, vertical integration between generators and suppliers; energy supply competition, and wider government policy; the prospects for market development under the new electricity trading arrangements. (author)

  19. Micro-economic analysis of the physical constrained markets: game theory application to competitive electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bompard, E.; Ma, Y. C.; Ragazzi, E.

    2006-03-01

    Competition has been introduced in the electricity markets with the goal of reducing prices and improving efficiency. The basic idea which stays behind this choice is that, in competitive markets, a greater quantity of the good is exchanged at a lower price, leading to higher market efficiency. Electricity markets are pretty different from other commodities mainly due to the physical constraints related to the network structure that may impact the market performance. The network structure of the system on which the economic transactions need to be undertaken poses strict physical and operational constraints. Strategic interactions among producers that game the market with the objective of maximizing their producer surplus must be taken into account when modeling competitive electricity markets. The physical constraints, specific of the electricity markets, provide additional opportunity of gaming to the market players. Game theory provides a tool to model such a context. This paper discussed the application of game theory to physical constrained electricity markets with the goal of providing tools for assessing the market performance and pinpointing the critical network constraints that may impact the market efficiency. The basic models of game theory specifically designed to represent the electricity markets will be presented. IEEE30 bus test system of the constrained electricity market will be discussed to show the network impacts on the market performances in presence of strategic bidding behavior of the producers.

  20. Micro-economic analysis of the physical constrained markets: game theory application to competitive electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bompard, E.; Ma, Y.C. [Politecnico di Torino, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Torino (Italy); Ragazzi, E. [CERIS, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth, CNR, National Research Council, Moncalieri, TO (Italy)

    2006-03-15

    Competition has been introduced in the electricity markets with the goal of reducing prices and improving efficiency. The basic idea which stays behind this choice is that, in competitive markets, a greater quantity of the good is exchanged at a lower price, leading to higher market efficiency. Electricity markets are pretty different from other commodities mainly due to the physical constraints related to the network structure that may impact the market performance. The network structure of the system on which the economic transactions needs to be undertaken poses strict physical and operational constraints. Strategic interactions among producers that game the market with the objective of maximizing their producer surplus must be taken into account when modeling competitive electricity markets. The physical constraints, specific of the electricity markets, provide additional opportunity of gaming to the market players. Game theory provides a tool to model such a context. This paper discussed the application of game theory to physical constrained electricity markets with the goal of providing tools for assessing the market performance and pinpointing the critical network constraints that may impact the market efficiency. The basic models of game theory specifically designed to represent the electricity markets will be presented. IEEE30 bus test system of the constrained electricity market will be discussed to show the network impacts on the market performances in presence of strategic bidding behavior of the producers. (authors)

  1. More Colleges Lock in Energy Rates to Avoid Volatile Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Scott

    2009-01-01

    In July, when energy prices were sky-high and some pundits were predicting a continued rise, Charles Riordan, facilities director at Loyola College of Maryland, and his colleagues locked in a chunk of their electricity prices--about a quarter of the college's consumption--to cover the next two years. Now that energy prices have fallen, the…

  2. Competition ambiguities. Electricite de France and the electricity market liberalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boiteux, M.

    2007-04-01

    The European Union decided to open the electricity market to the competition and the last step will be in July 2007. Meanwhile the first part, the opening to big consumers, is a deception. The market saw an increase of the electricity prices. The author explains the effects of the liberalization, presenting the inevitable limits of the competition, the disappointing evaluation, the historical aspects of the electric market facing the today situation. (A.L.B.)

  3. An empirical analysis of freight rate and vessel price volatility transmission in global dry bulk shipping market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Dai

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Global dry bulk shipping market is an important element of global economy and trade. Since newbuilding and secondhand vessels are often traded as assets and the freight rate is the key determinant of vessel price, it is important for shipping market participants to understand the market dynamics and price transmission mechanism over time to make suitable strategic decisions. To address this issue, a multi-variate GARCH model was applied in this paper to explore the volatility spillover effects across the vessel markets (including newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets and freight market. Specifically, the BEKK parameterization of the multi-variate GARCH model (BEKK GARCH was proposed to capture the volatility transmission effect from the freight market, newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets in the global dry bulk shipping industry. Empirical results reveal that significant volatility transmission effects exist in each market sector, i.e. capesize, panamax, handymax and handysize. Besides, the market volatility transmission mechanism varies among different vessel types. Moreover, some bilateral effects are found in the dry bulk shipping market, showing that lagged variances could affect the current variance in a counterpart market, regardless of the volatility transmission. A simple ratio is proposed to guide investors optimizing their portfolio allocations. The findings in this paper could provide unique insights for investors to understand the market and hedge their portfolios well.

  4. The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

  5. Information Uncertainty in Electricity Markets: Introducing Probabilistic Offers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    We propose a shift from the current paradigm of electricity markets treating stochastic producers similarly to conventional ones in terms of their offers. We argue that the producers’ offers should be probabilistic to reflect the limited predictability of renewable energy generation, while we...... should design market mechanisms to accommodate such offers. We argue that the transition from deterministic offers is a natural next step in electricity markets, by analytically proving our proposal’s equivalence with a two-price conventional market....

  6. Applicability Analysis of Bidding Strategy in Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou Suyan; Chen Fei; Qiao Yahui; Zhang Wenzhe; Zhang Kaifeng; Yuan Kun; Dai Xuemei

    2017-01-01

    With the development of the electricity market, competition has been introduced in the generation side. It is the overall development trend of the electricity market reformulation to optimize the allocation of different resources through bidding. Therefore, it is significant to research the bidding strategies of the generation companies and the large consumers. This paper reviews the existing research methods of bidding strategy. According to the different market mechanisms, the market partic...

  7. Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

    2012-07-01

    Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

  8. Electricity market models and RES integration: The Greek case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simoglou, Christos K.; Biskas, Pandelis N.; Vagropoulos, Stylianos I.; Bakirtzis, Anastasios G.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an extensive analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on an hour-by-hour simulation considering five different RES technologies, namely wind, PV, small hydro, biomass and CHP with emphasis on PV integration. The impact of RES penetration on the electricity market operation is evaluated under two different models regarding the organization of the Greek wholesale day-ahead electricity market: a mandatory power pool for year 2014 (current market design) and a power exchange for the period 2015–2020 (Target Model). An integrated software tool is used for the simulation of the current and the future day-ahead market clearing algorithm of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Simulation results indicate the impact of the anticipated large-scale RES integration, in conjunction with each market model, on specific indicators of the Greek electricity market in the long-term. - Highlights: • Analysis of the Greek electricity market for the next 7-year period (2014–2020) based on hour-by-hour simulation. • Five different RES technologies are considered with emphasis on PV integration. • A power pool (for 2014) and a power exchange (for 2015–2020) are considered. • Various market indicators are used for the analysis of the impact of the RES integration on the Greek electricity market. • Two alternative tariff schemes for the compensation of the new ground-mounted PV units from 2015 onwards are investigated

  9. Production inefficiency of electricity markets with hydro generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philpott, Andy; Guan, Ziming; Khazaei, Javad; Zakeri, Golbon

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market designs that decentralize decision making for participants can lead to inefficiencies in the presence of nonconvexity or missing markets. This has been shown in the case of unit-commitment problems that can make a decentralized market equilibrium less efficient than a centrally planned solution. Less attention has been focused on systems with large amounts of hydro-electric generation. We describe the results of an empirical study of the New Zealand wholesale electricity market that attempts to quantify production efficiency losses by comparing market outcomes with a counterfactual central plan. (author)

  10. RESTRUCTURED ELECTRICITY MARKETS: Three States' Experiences in Adding Generating Capacity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...., restructured electricity markets by shifting from service provided through a regulated monopoly-the local electric utility-to service provided through open competition among the local utility and its competitors...

  11. Intensity of Price and Volatility Spillover Effects in Asia-Pacific Basin Equity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sazali Abidin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the intensity of price and volatility spillover effects in five major stock markets within the Asia Pacific basin region with a particular emphasis in the spillover effects between Australia and China. VAR(5 model is used for measuring the return spillover while AR/VAR model with exogenous variables is employed for measuring the effects of same day returns on return spillover. .In modelling the volatility spillover, we employ AR/GARCH model which also incorporates the same day effects. Results of both return and volatility spillover provide evidence that there are significant spillover effects across different markets in the Asia-Pacific region and as well as between Australia and China. This study also provides support to the view that a market is most affected by other markets that opens/closes just before it. The main contribution of this paper is the confirmation of spillover effects between markets in the region, in particular, the interdependence between Australia and China which may have evolved only recently and thus have received relatively little research attention to date.

  12. Organisation development possibilities of Croatian electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toljan, I.

    1999-01-01

    Organisational development of the European Union members' power sector is defined by the obligatory legislative document D irectives 92/96 EC, 19.12.1996 . The development goal is a natural monopoly decrease and introduction of competition, having in mind environmental protection which will enable sustainable development of each member. This would provide the European economy to become globally more competitive and to protect macro economic stability more efficiently. The EU members are allowed to make their own decisions regarding the mode of implementation they will use to establish the organisation of electricity market. Non-members of EU are also involved in defining future changes. Developed non-members are more efficient in that process and promptly follow all changes. Transition countries, among them also Croatia, are trying to adjust to such demands, with different success. The aim of this paper is analyse the current Croatian power system and the possibilities if its modernisation. (author)

  13. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  14. Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

    2013-01-01

    The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

  15. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 2. Quarter 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-06-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  16. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 4. Quarter 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-12-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  17. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 1. Quarter 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-03-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  18. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 1. Quarter 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-03-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  19. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 3. Quarter 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-09-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  20. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 4. Quarter 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-12-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  1. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 1. Quarter 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  2. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 2. Quarter 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  3. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 3. Quarter 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-09-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  4. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 3. Quarter 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-09-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  5. Retail markets. Electricity and natural gas retail markets Observatory 4. Quarter 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-12-01

    The retail markets Observatory aims to provide general monitoring indicators of electricity and natural gas retail markets in France. This Observatory is updated on a Quarterly basis and published on CRE's web site (www.cre.fr). The first part of the report summarises the highlights of the electricity market (situation, market shares, suppliers, sales, dynamic analysis, regulated prices). The natural gas market is detailed in the second part

  6. True or spurious long memory in volatility: Further evidence on the energy futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charfeddine, Lanouar

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to investigate whether the long memory behavior observed in many volatility energy futures markets series is a spurious behavior or not. For this purpose, we employ a wide variety of advanced volatility models that allow for long memory and/or structural changes: the GARCH(1,1), the FIGARCH(1,d,1), the Adaptative-GARCH(1,1,k), and the Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) models. To compare forecasting ability of these models, we use out-of-sample forecasting performance. Using the crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and propane volatility futures energy time series with 1-month and 3-month maturities, we found that five out of the eight time series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. For these series, dates of breaks coincide with some major economics and financial events. For the three other time series, we found strong evidence of long memory in volatility. - Highlights: • This paper investigates the long memory properties of the futures energy volatility. • We estimate a variety of GARCH-class of models. • The Adaptative-FIGARCH(1,d,1,k) model has been used to account for both long memory and breaks. • 5 out of the 8 futures energy series are characterized by both long memory and structural breaks. • The 3 other series are characterized by only long range dependence in volatility

  7. Strategies for Charging Electric Vehicles in the Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Juul

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses different charging strategies for a fleet of electric vehicles. Along with increasing the realism of the strategies, the opportunity for acting on the regulating market is also included. We test the value of a vehicle owner that can choose when and how to charge; by presenting a model of four alternative charging strategies. We think of them as increasing in sophistication from dumb via delayed to deterministic and stochastic model-based charging. We show that 29% of the total savings from ‘dumb’ are due to delayed charging and that substantial additional gains come charging optimally in response to predicted spot prices, and – in some settings – additional gains from using the up and down regulating prices. Particularly, strategies are chosen from uncontrolled charging through deterministic optimization, to modelling the charging and bidding problem with stochastic programming. We show that all vehicle owners will benefit from acting more intelligently on the energy market. Furthermore, the high value of the stochastic solution shows that, in case the regulating price differs from the expected, the solution to the deterministic problem becomes infeasible.

  8. Obstacles to the use of natural gas in electric markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lynch, M.M.

    1992-01-01

    A brief overview of the New England Electric System (NEES) and its current and planned natural gas fired generation is presented. Some statistics are given that indicate that electric generation is the biggest growth market for natural gas, underscoring the importance of overcoming the obstacles to the use of gas in electric generation markets. What is seen as the major obstacles to gas use in the electric power industry and some ways to overcome these obstacles are reviewed

  9. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097

  10. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  11. How the physical electricity markets will work in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, P.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of how the physical electricity markets in Ontario will operate was the focus of this presentation. Principal topics addressed included a definition of the physical market, (a mechanism through which the terms and conditions, including price, for the physical exchange of a commodity are established, and delivery is realized); a discussion on the role of the Independent Market Operator; wholesale and retail electricity markets; retail market proposals; the staging of congestion pricing; and the life cycle of physical transactions and payments. Market price components were summarized, and a typical transaction from bids and offers to billing and fund transfer was illustrated

  12. Failing electricity markets: should we shoot the pools?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, Richard

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the electricity reforms in California and in England and Wales. In both cases, a centralised spot market played a major role, and both markets have now been abolished. This paper argues that their disappearance is not evidence that future electricity restructuring should avoid the use of spot markets. Instead, the problems in England and Wales were largely due to market power. In California, problems arising from market power and a tightening demand-supply balance were turned into a disaster because the spot market had not been backed up by hedging contracts. (Author)

  13. Reforming British Columbia's electricity market: A way forward. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    This report begins with background on developments in electricity market structure and customer access, recent electricity market developments in British Columbia, factors driving change in that market, key elements of electricity market reform, and the work of the task force appointed to propose such reform. It then presents a consensus proposal for reform from the task force. The proposal has four major elements: Increasing customer access; transition toward a vertically de-integrated market structure; ensuring that social values associated with the existing electricity market are protected and enhanced; and environmental concerns (increasing energy efficiency and favoring the development of environmentally desirable electricity generation technologies). Finally, the proposals are evaluated against the task force terms of reference. Includes glossary

  14. Measuring the relationship between intraday returns, volatility spill-overs and market beta during financial distress / Wayne Peter Brewer

    OpenAIRE

    Brewer, Wayne Peter

    2013-01-01

    The modelling of volatility has long been seminal to finance and risk management in general, as it provides information on the spread of portfolio returns. In order to reduce the overall volatility of a stock portfolio, modern portfolio theory (MPT), within an efficient market hypothesis (EMH) framework, dictates that a well-diversified portfolio should have a market beta of one (thereafter adjusted for risk preference), and thus move in sync with a benchmark market portfolio. Such a stock po...

  15. Asymmetry Effects in Volatility on the Major European Stock Markets: the EGARCH Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Olbrys

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric impact of innovations on volatility in the case of the largest European stock markets in the United Kingdom, France and Germany by using the EGARCH based approach. The sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2016, and it includes the 2007 U.S. subprime crisis. The robustness analysis of empirical results is provided with respect to the whole sample and three adjacent subsamples, each of equal size: 1 the pre-crisis, 2 the Global Financial Crisis (GFC and 3 the post-crisis periods. The GFC periods are formally detected by using a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. Moreover, the common trading window procedure is employed to avoid the nonsynchronous trading problem in the group of investigated markets and to get the overlapping information set. We estimate univariate EGARCH models based on daily percentage logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes: FTSE100 (London, CAC40 (Paris, and DAX (Frankfurt. Pronounced negative asymmetry effects in volatility are presented in the case of all markets and are rather robust to the choice of the period. Our findings are consistent with the literature and suggest that the major European stock markets are more sensitive to ’bad’ than ‘good’ news.

  16. Alternate entropy measure for assessing volatility in financial markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bose, Ranjan; Hamacher, Kay

    2012-11-01

    We propose two alternate information theoretical approaches to assess non-Gaussian fluctuations in the return dynamics of financial markets. Specifically, we use superinformation, which is a measure of the disorder of the entropy of time series. We argue on theoretical grounds on its usefulness and show that it can be applied effectively for analyzing returns. A study of stock market data for over five years has been carried out using this approach. We show how superinformation helps to identify and classify important signals in the time series. The financial crisis of 2008 comes out very clearly in the superinformation plots. In addition, we introduce the super mutual information. Distinct super mutual information signatures are observed that might be used to mitigate idiosyncratic risk. The universality of our approach has been tested by carrying out the analysis for the 100 stocks listed in S&P100 index. The average superinformation values for the S&P100 stocks correlates very well with the VIX.

  17. The electric power market in Europe. The stakes and forecasts of the market reconfiguration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This study takes stock on the eight main european electric power markets. It provides data on the electric power sector, knowledge on the european market competition, it analyzes the european companies mastership and management, the market reconfiguration, it evaluates and compares the financial performance of the sector leaders. (A.L.B.)

  18. Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic price information flows among U.S. electricity wholesale spot prices and the prices of the major electricity generation fuel sources, natural gas, uranium, coal, and crude oil, are studied. Multivariate time series methods applied to weekly price data show that in contemporaneous time peak electricity prices move natural gas prices, which in turn influence crude oil. In the long run, price is discovered in the fuel sources market (except uranium), as these prices are weakly exogenous in a reduced rank regression representation of these energy prices.

  19. Studies in market-based electric power trade and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hope, Einar

    2000-01-01

    This is a compilation of articles written by the author during the last fifteen years. Most of the articles are related to the reform of the Norwegian electric power market. This reform led to the Energy Act of 1990 and to the subsequent development of the power markets. Some of the sections are in Norwegian, some in English. The sections discuss (1) Markets for electricity trade in Norway, (2) Economic incentives and public firm behaviour, (3) Market alternatives to the present forms of occasional power trade, (4) Socio-economic considerations about electricity pricing, (5) Scenarios for market based power trade in Norway, (6) Markets for electricity: economic reform of the Norwegian electricity industry, (7) The Norwegian power market, (8) A common Nordic energy market?, (9) Organization of supply markets for natural gas in Europe, (10) The extent of the central grid, (11) Optimum regulation of grid monopolies in the power trade, (12) Power markets and competition policy, (13) Deregulation of the Norwegian power sector, (14) designing a market based system for the Icelandic electricity industry and (15) regulation regimes for the power sector

  20. Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

    2004-01-01

    Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

  1. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  2. The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

  3. A day-ahead market for electricity in Alberta : is there a case to be made?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fronimos, P.

    2006-01-01

    Following the success of the introduction of competition in several heavily regulated industries in the 1980s and 1990s, traditional utilities were broken up and markets were introduced for their respective services. Some of these markets evolved into complex structures with multiple sub-markets for installed capacity, energy, transmission and for all types of reserves. Electricity submarkets now operate in a similar manner in different timeframes comprising two settlement systems: the Day Ahead (DA) market, operating a day ahead of the actual generation and consumption of electricity and one that operates in real time, the Real-Time (RT) or Balancing market. This paper explored the case for a binding DA market for electricity in Alberta, by looking at the challenges facing the marketplace and examining how using a DA market would affect them. This paper hypothesized that a correctly designed and implemented, financially binding DA market would enhance the fidelity of the price signal in Alberta by providing an information rich environment for participants and the system operator. The paper defined and discussed both types of settlement systems. It then discussed the DA market in Alberta in terms of risk management, reliability, price fidelity and demand response. It was noted that some of the benefits of using a DA market could also be achieved by improvements to the existing market. Alberta faces several challenges, such as merit order instability and price volatility which are likely due to market design and operations rather than the inherent inability of a power exchange to address them. 31 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  4. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  5. Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

  6. How to benefit from a common European electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringler, Philipp; Keles, Dogan; Fichtner, Wolf

    2017-01-01

    The realization of an Internal Electricity Market in Europe is currently, on the one hand, progressing, in particular thanks to the wide-spread implementation of market coupling solutions for cross-border congestion management. On the other hand, diverging national market designs pose a threat to the continuation of this process. Given the challenges to electricity market design in a multi-regional context, we analyze how different design aspects, namely cross-border congestion management and capacity mechanisms, affect welfare and generation adequacy in Europe. In doing so, we rely on an agent-based simulation model for electricity wholesale markets which we apply within several numerical, computational case studies for the region of Central Western Europe (2012–2030). Our results confirm the benefits of market coupling in terms of welfare as well as generation adequacy. Furthermore, we find indications that coordinating market designs across regions supports these targets. Therefore, we recommend that European energy policy forms a stable, transparent regulatory framework with cross-border market coupling as an integral component. In this context, energy policy targets should be clearly defined and operationalized, which also needs to consider potential conflicts between them. Finally, electricity market designs need to be coordinated among states to benefit most from a common European market. - Highlights: • European electricity markets at crossroads given diverging market designs • Simulation of CWE Market Coupling using an agent-based model. • Welfare and adequacy gains from European market coupling and new interconnections. • Conflicts between energy policy targets to be considered in market design. • Coordination key to further strengthen integration of electricity markets in Europe.

  7. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  8. The Brazilian electric power market: historic and forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho Afonso, C.A. de; Azevedo, J.B.L. de

    1992-01-01

    A historical analysis of electric power market evolution in Brazil and in their regions during 1950 to 1990, is described, showing the forecasting for the next ten years. Some considerations about population, energy conservation and industrial consumers are also presented, including statistical data of the electrical power market. (C.G.C.)

  9. Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); C. Huurman; R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The

  10. Risk and investment management in liberalized electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jacob Kjærgaard

    2005-01-01

    markets affects the nancial risk related to different decision problems within the areas of risk management and investments in liberalized electricity markets. Focus is on applied microeconomics and analyzes of the interplay between market design parameters and the technical characteristics...... of the electricity system. Theory, literature and introduction to speci c problem areas related to risk management and investments is provided in two separate introductory chapters. Contributions to research within specific problems areas is then subsequently provided by five research papers. The two topics...... are relatively broad, however the two chapters and ve papers all share analyzes of nancial risk in liberalized electricity markets as a common underlying theme. The risk management part of the thesis focusses on modelling and measurement of financial risk in electricity markets. Key topics are electricity price...

  11. Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Sánchez

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The action consists of moving with small kicks a tin of cola refresh -without Brand-from a point of the city up to other one. During the path I avoid bollards, the slope differences between sidewalks, pedestrians, parked motorcycles, etc. Volatility wants to say exactly that the money is getting lost. That the money is losing by gentlemen and by ladies who are neither financial sharks, nor big businessmen… or similarly, but ingenuous people, as you or as me, who walk down the street.

  12. Retail competition in electricity markets. Expectations, outcomes and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Littlechild, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    In 'Retail competition in electricity markets' (Energy Policy, 37(2), February 2009, Pages 377-386) it is argued by Defeuilly that the introduction of retail competition into electricity markets gave rise to great expectations that it failed to meet, and that this was primarily the fault of Austrian economic thinking. The main purpose of this note is to explain why both of these propositions are incorrect. A few further comments challenge his subsequent suggestion that the competitive process in electricity is so constrained by the limitations of consumer decision-making and electricity technology as to cast doubt on the policy of opening the retail market to competition

  13. Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Intraday Evidence from Indian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Paital

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between stock return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spread within the scope of mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH and sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH in the Indian stock market using high frequency 5-minute data set over the period of 2 July 2012 to 31 December 2012. This is the first kind of study in India using bid-ask spread as an additional information variable along with trading volume to investigate the relationship with stock return volatility. Our empirical findings provide evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between return volatility and trading volume, and also between return volatility and bid-ask spread. Moreover, the results of Granger causality test show that the information content of trading volume and bid-ask spread are useful for predicting stock return volatility. Our results indicate that information arrival to investors tends to follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. This finding is consistent with the sequential information arrival hypothesis and contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

  14. Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiyan Mo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model.

  15. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  16. Electricity and gas market Observatory - 1. Quarter of 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    The purpose of the Observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. Since 2013, it also covers the wholesale CO 2 market. This Observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr)

  17. Applicability Analysis of Bidding Strategy in Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Suyan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the electricity market, competition has been introduced in the generation side. It is the overall development trend of the electricity market reformulation to optimize the allocation of different resources through bidding. Therefore, it is significant to research the bidding strategies of the generation companies and the large consumers. This paper reviews the existing research methods of bidding strategy. According to the different market mechanisms, the market participators will choose different bidding strategies based on their own cases. We analyze the applicability of bidding strategies under the different conditions, and give suggestions on how to select bidding strategy for the different market participators under different conditions.

  18. Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

    2018-03-01

    The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

  19. Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henney, A.; Keers, G.

    1998-01-01

    The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

  20. Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnstable, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap