Oil and stock market volatility: A multivariate stochastic volatility perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh

2011-01-01

This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility structure in an attempt to extract information intertwined in both markets for risk prediction. It offers four major findings. First, the stock and oil futures prices are inter-related. Their correlation follows a time-varying dynamic process and tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. Second, conditioned on the past information, the volatility in each market is very persistent, i.e., it varies in a predictable manner. Third, there is inter-market dependence in volatility. Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. In other words, conditioned on the persistence and the past volatility in their respective markets, the past volatility of the stock (oil futures) market also has predictive power over the future volatility of the oil futures (stock) market. Finally, the model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry. - Research Highlights: → This paper models the volatility of stock and oil futures markets using the multivariate stochastic volatility model. → The correlation between the two markets follows a time-varying dynamic process which tends to increase when the markets are more volatile. → The volatility in each market is very persistent. → Innovations that hit either market can affect the volatility in the other market. → The model produces more accurate Value-at-Risk estimates than other benchmarks commonly used in the financial industry.

The Price and Volatility Dynamics in the Swedish-Norwegian Renewable Electricity Certificate MarketA Study of Spillover Effects and Regulatory changes

OpenAIRE

Finell, Philip; Hiller, Maria

2016-01-01

The market for renewable electricity certificates (REC) is the primary support system for renewable energy in Sweden and Norway. Regulatory uncertainty and equity markets have previously been proven to impact the volatility of the REC spot contract. As policy makers, renewable electricity investors and other stakeholders aim for profitability and efficient regulation, additional insights of the dynamics in the  REC market is needed. This study examines regulatory uncertainty on both REC spot ...

Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bobinaite, Viktorija; Juozapaviciene, Aldona; Staniewski, Marcin; Szczepankowski, Piotr

2013-01-01

The goal of this article is to better understand the processes of electricity market price formation in Poland and Lithuania through an analysis of the features (volatility and spikes) of Lithuanian and Polish day-ahead electricity market prices and to assess how acquired electricity price features could affect the achievement of the main goals of the national energy policy. The following indicators have been calculated to determine electricity market price volatility: the oscillation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, an adjusted coefficient of variation, the standard deviation indicator, the daily velocity indicator (based on the overall average price) and the daily velocity indicator (based on the daily average price). Critical values for electricity market price have been calculated to evaluate price spikes. This analysis reveals that electricity market-price volatility is moderate in Poland and high in Lithuania. Electricity price spikes have been an observable phenomenon both in Lithuanian and in Polish day-ahead electricity markets, but they are more common in Lithuania, encompassing 3.15% of the time period analysed in Poland and 4.68% of the time period analysed in Lithuania. Volatile, spiking and increasing electricity prices in day-ahead electricity markets in Lithuania and Poland create preconditions and substantiate the relevance of implementation of the national energy policies and measures. - Highlights: • Moderate and seasonal volatility. • spiking market price and. • stable average price

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Comparative Study between Two Market Clearing Schemes in Wind Dominant Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

2015-01-01

High price volatility and excessive price reduction are introduced as two emerging problems in wind dominant electricity markets. In this study, an agent-based simulation methodology is employed to investigate the impact of two pricing mechanisms, uniform and pay-as-bid, on the mentioned problems....... According to the proposed agent-based approach, electricity market agents (here generation units) learn from their previous bidding experience to obtain maximum financial. A comparative study is then conducted to investigate the impact of mentioned pricing schemes on price volatility and average price level....... It is shown that these two pricing mechanisms cause different bidding behaviours for the generation units. This study suggests that this change in market agent behaviour, modifies the overall price volatility and system average price. The results indicate that a pay-as-bid pricing mechanism can alleviate...

Risk management and portfolio optimization in volatile energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Ramly, Z.

2002-01-01

Characteristics of competitive markets, especially as they relate to the deregulated electricity market, are explained in terms of pricing, contracting, operation, the types of physical and financial products and services, and procurement decisions. The importance of market monitoring, organization monitoring and analysis, the understanding of market dynamics and the impacts of market data, price volatility and risk, and how they affect and are used in decision making are reviewed in some detail. A variety of proprietary task-specific power tools such as the ZE Data Manager, ZE XML Importer, ZE Market Analyzer, ZE Forward Price Models, ZE Trade Manager, and ZE Credit Risk Manager are described, and their application demonstrated. The inter-relatedness of price volatility and risk is discussed, along with the need to understand, monitor, quantify and deal with it on a continuous basis

Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

2005-01-01

Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

Does NVIX matter for market volatility? Evidence from Asia-Pacific markets

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Zhi; Fang, Tong; Yin, Libo

2018-02-01

Forecasting financial market volatility is an important issue in the area of econophysics, and revealing the determinants of the market volatility has drawn much attentions of the academics. In order to better predict market volatilities, we use news-based implied volatility (NVIX) to measure uncertainty, and examine the predictive power of NVIX on the stock market volatility in both long and short-term among Asia-Pacific markets via GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that NVIX does not well explain long-term volatility variants in the full sample period, and it is positively associated with market volatility through a subsample analysis starting from the Financial Crisis. We also find that NVIX is more efficient in determining short-term volatility than the long-term volatility, indicating that the impact of NVIX is short-lived and information that investors concern could be quickly reflected in the stock market volatilities.

The challenges of the electricity trade in liberalised markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wanzek, S.

2001-01-01

As a consequence of the electricity market liberalization a new market emerged allowing electricity to be traded as a commodity. The structure of the electricity companies has to be adopted in the new market model and the regulatory framework has to ensure a level playing field for the participants in the market. Trading has taken on considerable strategic significance for all market participants. The price of electricity is becoming more and more volatile. In this paper the targets, forms and lessons E. ON's electricity trade are discussed. In addition, the impacts of successful trading and obtained experiences are analysed. At the end an outlook for electricity trade in East and South-East Europe is given. (author)

Cost Linkages Transmit Volatility Across Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen; Schaur, Georg

We present and test a model relating a firm's idiosyncratic cost, its exporting status, and the volatilities of its domestic and export sales. In prior models of trade, supply costs for domestic and exports were linear and thus additively separable. We introduce a nonlinear cost function in order...... to link the domestic and export supply costs. This theoretical contribution has two new implications for the exporting firm. First, the demand volatility in the foreign market now directly affects the firm's domestic sales volatility. Second, firms hedge domestic demand volatility with exports. The model...... has several testable predictions. First, larger firms have lower total and domestic sales volatilities. Second, foreign market volatility increases domestic sales volatilities for exporters. Third, exporters allocate output across both markets in order to reduce total sales volatility. We find...

Transmission : roadway to a competitive electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thon, S. [AltaLink L.P., AB (Canada)

2002-07-01

Having a variety of suppliers, marketers and retailers is the key to developing a successful electricity market which is more competitive on pricing, with less price volatility, more innovative customer products and higher levels of customer services. Some areas of Alberta are developing their own power markets with limited capacity to interact. These include Pincher Creek, Empress, Calgary, Edmonton, and Fort McMurray. It was noted that increasing transmission capacity is the key to ensuring a bigger and more competitive electricity market. Transmission constraints only encourage a small number of suppliers to control the market. The current cost of transmission capacity accounts for less than 5 per cent of an average residential customer's bill, but it plays a major role in providing more choice to competitive electricity suppliers. Developing more transmission capacity will create an even more competitive market that benefits both consumers and suppliers. Prices in Alberta have been very volatile in the past couple of years because of supply and demand issues, and there is a need to increase market liquidity. Alberta's Transmission Administrator is looking to expand the transmission network to alleviate constraints and to lower the cost of power generation, regardless of location. These expansions are not expected to affect customers' bills by more than 2 to 3 per cent. Such transmission concerns are being felt all over North America. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in the United States also recognizes the link between transmission and creating a competitive electricity market.

Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Wen

2018-03-01

This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

The power to choose. Demand response in liberalized electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

Highly volatile electricity prices are becoming a more frequent and unwanted characteristic of modern electricity wholesale markets. But low demand elasticity, mainly the result of a lack of incentives and consumers' inability to control demand, means that consumer behaviour is not reflected in the cost of energy. This study analyses the impact of price-responsive demand and shows how pricing, policy and technology can be used to inform consumer behaviour and choice. Informed choice and market-based valuation of electricity supply will ensure liberalized markets are competitive, efficient, less volatile and able to provide long term security of supply. Significant benefits will occur even if only 5% of customers become responsive to price-incentives and information. And customers will respond to well designed programs, thereby developing a role in ensuring efficient price formulation for electricity. This study analyses the economic, efficiency and security benefits and identifies the changes in electricity tariffs and the network infrastructure needed to achieve greater demand response

Volatility persistence in crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charles, Amélie; Darné, Olivier

2014-01-01

Financial market participants and policy-makers can benefit from a better understanding of how shocks can affect volatility over time. This study assesses the impact of structural changes and outliers on volatility persistence of three crude oil markets – Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – between January 2, 1985 and June 17, 2011. We identify outliers using a new semi-parametric test based on conditional heteroscedasticity models. These large shocks can be associated with particular event patterns, such as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, the Operation Desert Storm, the Operation Desert Fox, and the Global Financial Crisis as well as OPEC announcements on production reduction or US announcements on crude inventories. We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of the equation governing volatility dynamics; (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models (GARCH, IGARCH, FIGARCH and HYGARCH); and (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility, and thus the estimation of the persistence of the volatility. Therefore, taking into account the outliers on the volatility modelling process may improve the understanding of volatility in crude oil markets. - Highlights: • We study the impact of outliers on volatility persistence of crude oil markets. • We identify outliers and patches of outliers due to specific events. • We show that outliers can bias (i) the estimates of the parameters of GARCH models, (ii) the regularity and non-negativity conditions of GARCH-type models, (iii) the detection of structural breaks in volatility of crude oil markets

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Baumöhl, Eduard; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš

2018-01-01

In our network analysis of 40 developed, emerging and frontier stock markets during the 2006-2014 period, we describe and model volatility spillovers during both the global financial crisis and tranquil periods. The resulting market interconnectedness is depicted by fitting a spatial model incorporating several exogenous characteristics. We document the presence of significant temporal proximity effects between markets and somewhat weaker temporal effects with regard to the US equity market - volatility spillovers decrease when markets are characterized by greater temporal proximity. Volatility spillovers also present a high degree of interconnectedness, which is measured by high spatial autocorrelation. This finding is confirmed by spatial regression models showing that indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects; i.e., market-related changes in 'neighboring' markets (within a network) affect volatility spillovers more than changes in the given market alone, suggesting that spatial effects simply cannot be ignored when modeling stock market relationships. Our results also link spillovers of escalating magnitude with increasing market size, market liquidity and economic openness.

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

2010-01-01

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2010-12-15

Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

The value of electricity storage in energy-only electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

McConnell, D.; Forcey, T.; Sandiford, M.

2015-12-01

Price volatility and the prospect of increasing renewable energy generation have raised interest in the potential opportunities for storage technologies in energy-only electricity markets. In this paper we explore the value of a price-taking storage device in such a market, the National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia. Our analysis suggests that under optimal operation, there is little value in having more than six hours of storage in this market. However, the inability to perfectly forecast wholesale prices, particularly extreme price spikes, may warrant some additional storage. We found that storage devices effectively provide a similar service as peak generators (such as Open Cycle Gas Turbines) and are similarly dependent on and exposed to extreme price events, with revenue for a merchant generator highly skewed to a few days of the year. In contrast to previous studies, this results in the round trip efficiency of the storage being relatively insignificant. Financing using hedging strategies similar to a peak generator effectively reduces the variability of revenue and exposure of storage to extreme prices. Our case study demonstrates that storage may have a competitive advantage over other peaking generators on the NEM, due to its ability to earn revenue outside of extreme peak events. As a consequence the outlook for storage options on the NEM is dependent on volatility, in turn dependent on capacity requirements. Further to this, increased integration of renewable energy may both depend on storage and improve the outlook for storage in technologies in electricity markets.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeyu Zheng

Full Text Available Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

Observability of market daily volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Petroni, Filippo; Serva, Maurizio

2016-02-01

We study the price dynamics of 65 stocks from the Dow Jones Composite Average from 1973 to 2014. We show that it is possible to define a Daily Market Volatility σ(t) which is directly observable from data. This quantity is usually indirectly defined by r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) where the r(t) are the daily returns of the market index and the ω(t) are i.i.d. random variables with vanishing average and unitary variance. The relation r(t) = σ(t) ω(t) alone is unable to give an operative definition of the index volatility, which remains unobservable. On the contrary, we show that using the whole information available in the market, the index volatility can be operatively defined and detected.

Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson, G.S.

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented

The volatility of stock market prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiller, R J

1987-01-02

If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatice Karahan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

2008-01-01

We provide empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the period 1969 to 1996.

Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

2013-01-01

Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: the case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

2013-01-01

Roč. 60, September (2013), s. 81-90 ISSN 0301-4215 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : conditional volatility * electricity prices * regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.696, year: 2013

Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

2006-01-01

This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

How competitive are EU electricity markets? An assessment of ETS Phase II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castagneto-Gissey, Giorgio

2014-01-01

This paper studies the interactions between electricity and carbon allowance prices in the year-ahead energy markets of France, Germany, United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, during Phase II of the EU ETS. VAR and Granger-causality methods are used to analyze causal interfaces, whereas the volatility of electricity prices is studied with basic and asymmetric AR-GARCH models. Among the main results, the marginal rate at which carbon prices feed into electricity prices is shown to be ca. 135% in the EEX and Nord Pool markets, where electricity and carbon prices display bidirectional causality, and 109% in the UK. Therefore, generators in these markets internalized the cost of freely allotted emission allowances into their electricity prices considerably more than the proportionate increase in costs justified by effective carbon intensity. Moreover, electricity prices in France are found to Granger-cause the carbon price. This study also shows how European electricity prices are deeply linked to coal prices among other factors, both in terms of levels and volatility, regardless of the underlying fuel mix, and that coal was marginally more profitable than gas for electricity generation. EU policies aimed at increasing the carbon price are likely to be crucial in limiting the externalities involved in the transition to a low-carbon system. - Highlights: • The interactions between electricity and carbon prices during Phase II are investigated. • This work also studies the determinants of EU electricity price levels and volatilities. • Nord Pool, APX UK and EEX carbon cost pass-through rates emphasize low electricity market competitiveness. • Powernext electricity prices Granger-cause the Phase II carbon price. • Coal was marginally more profitable than gas during Phase II

Social Welfare implications of demand response programs in competitive electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boisvert, Richard N.; Neenan, Bernard F.

2003-08-01

The price volatility exhibited by wholesale electricity markets has stymied the movement to restructure the industry, and may derail it altogether. Market designers argue that prices are superior to regulation for directing long-term investments to the proper location and function, and that price volatility is a natural manifestation of a robustly competitive market. However, episodes of prices that soar to previously unimaginable heights try customers' patience and cause policy makers to reconsider if the prize is worth the consequences.

Investor attention and FX market volatility

OpenAIRE

Goddard, John; Kita, Arben; Wang, Qingwei

2015-01-01

We study the relationship between investors’ active attention, measured by a Google search volume index (SVI), and the dynamics of currency prices. Investor attention is correlated with the trading activities of large FX market participants. Investor attention comoves with comtemporaneous FX market volatility and predicts subsequent FX market volatility, after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. In addition, investor attention is related to the currency risk premium. Our results sugge...

Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula-multifractal volatility approach

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wang; Wei, Yu; Lang, Qiaoqi; Lin, Yu; Liu, Maojuan

2014-03-01

In this paper, we propose a new approach based on the multifractal volatility method (MFV) to study the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. From recent studies, which reveal that multifractal characteristics exist in both developed and emerging financial markets, according to the econophysics literature we could draw conclusions as follows: Firstly, we estimate volatility using the multifractal volatility method, and find out that the MFV method performs best among other volatility models, such as GARCH-type and realized volatility models. Secondly, we analyze the tail dependence structure between the U.S. and Chinese stock market. The estimated static copula results for the entire period show that the SJC copula performs best, indicating asymmetric characteristics of the tail dependence structure. The estimated dynamic copula results show that the time-varying t copula achieves the best performance, which means the symmetry dynamic t copula is also a good choice, for it is easy to estimate and is able to depict both the upper and lower tail dependence structure. Finally, with the results of the previous two steps, we analyze the contagion effect between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. The empirical results show that the subprime mortgage crisis started in the U.S. and that its stock market has had an obvious contagion effect on the Chinese stock market. Our empirical results should/might be useful for investors allocating their portfolios.

A novel approach to electricity market education

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karjalainen, R.; Viljainen, S.; Partanen, J.

2007-01-01

The special characteristics of the competitive Nordic electricity markets were discussed with particular references to the challenges of operating an open power market. Electricity prices in Norway are highly volatile and difficult to estimate because the demand for electricity depends highly on temperature, while the supply of electricity is influenced by water reservoir levels and the price of carbon dioxide allowances. An innovative approach to power engineering education was proposed in an effort to provide power engineering students at Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) with skills that are needed for open electricity markets. In addition to the basic power engineering skills, these include an understand of risk management, financing, sales and marketing. The approach was based on developing theoretical and practical teaching methods that are applied in power engineering education at LUT. The practical learning methods played a key role in the development of a Power Exchange Game which was based on the operation of the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. During the game, student teams used their knowledge and acted as portfolio managers of electric utilities where they analyzed and made decisions regarding the operation in the Nordic electricity market. Upon completion of the game, students were expected analyze their own performance in a final report. Most of the students considered the course an effective and interesting way to study the operation of electricity markets. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

What went wrong in California's electricity market?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikeung Woo

2001-01-01

The California electricity market reform promised to deliver reliable service at low and stable prices. Frequent capacity shortages and the ensuing rolling black-outs, price spikes, and large price volatility since Summer 2000 raise a simple but substantive question: what went wrong? The answer to this question will help countries contemplating electricity market reform not to commit similar mistakes. We find the answer by identifying the major factors that have turned the California dream into a nightmare. Such factors include poor market design, market power, sustained demand growth not matched by new capacity, rising marginal cost, and financial insolvency. Proposed remedies include an alternative market settlement process, long-term contract, fast licensing and siting process for new generation and transmission, conservation and energy-efficiency, distributed resources, rate options, and debt restructuring. The California experience suggests that a reversible regulatory reform is a safe alternative to an irreversible market reform. (Author)

Stock Market Volatility: Examining North America, Europe and Asia

OpenAIRE

Gamini Premaratne; Lakshmi Bala

2004-01-01

An understanding of volatility in stock markets is important for determining the cost of capital and for assessing investment and leverage decisions as volatility is synonymous with risk. Substantial changes in volatility of financial markets are capable of having significant negative effects on risk averse investors. Using daily returns from 1992 to 2002, we investigate volatility co-movement between the Singapore stock market and the markets of US, UK, Hong Kong and Japan. In order to gauge...

Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

OpenAIRE

Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

2004-01-01

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

The price of fixed income market volatility

CERN Document Server

Mele, Antonio

2015-01-01

Fixed income volatility and equity volatility evolve heterogeneously over time, co-moving disproportionately during periods of global imbalances and each reacting to events of different nature. While the methodology for options-based "model-free" pricing of equity volatility has been known for some time, little is known about analogous methodologies for pricing various fixed income volatilities. This book fills this gap and provides a unified evaluation framework of fixed income volatility while dealing with disparate markets such as interest-rate swaps, government bonds, time-deposits and credit. It develops model-free, forward looking indexes of fixed-income volatility that match different quoting conventions across various markets, and uncovers subtle yet important pitfalls arising from naïve superimpositions of the standard equity volatility methodology when pricing various fixed income volatilities. The ultimate goal of the authors´ efforts is to make interest rate volatility standardization a valuable...

Volatility in the California power market: source, methodology and recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahlgren, R.W.; Liu, C.-C.; Lawarree, J.

2001-01-01

Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for price risk management for electric utilities. Recent methods in California provide examples of lessons that can be applied to other markets worldwide. Value-at-Risk (VAR), a method for quantifying risk exposure in the financial industry, is introduced as a technique that is applicable to quantifying price risk exposure in power systems. The methodology for applying VAR using changes in prices from corresponding hours on previous periods to understand how the hourly VAR entity is exposed when the power system is obligated to serve a load and does not have a contract for supply. The VAR methodology introduced is then applied to a sample company in California that is serving a 100 MW load. Proposed remedies for the problems observed in the competitive California electric power industry are introduced. (Author)

Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios

2008-01-01

Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)

Impact of renewables on electricity markets – Do support schemes matter?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, Jenny; Gaio, Alberto; Pfluger, Benjamin; Ragwitz, Mario

2016-01-01

Rising renewable shares influence electricity markets in several ways: among others, average market prices are reduced and price volatility increases. Therefore, the “missing money problem” in energy-only electricity markets is more likely to occur in systems with high renewable shares. Nevertheless, renewables are supported in many countries due to their expected benefits. The kind of support instrument can however influence the degree to which renewables influence the market. While fixed feed-in tariffs lead to higher market impacts, more market-oriented support schemes such as market premiums, quota systems and capacity-based payments decrease the extent to which markets are affected. This paper analyzes the market impacts of different support schemes. For this purpose, a new module is added to an existing bottom-up simulation model of the electricity market. In addition, different degrees of flexibility in the electricity system are considered. A case study for Germany is used to derive policy recommendations regarding the choice of support scheme. - Highlights: •Renewable support schemes matter regarding the impact on electricity markets. •Market-oriented support schemes reduce the impact on electricity markets. •More flexible electricity systems reduce the need for market participation. •Sliding premiums combine market integration with a productive risk allocation.

Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?

OpenAIRE

Dimpfl, Thomas; Jank, Stephan

2011-01-01

This paper studies the dynamics of stock market volatility and retail investor attention measured by internet search queries. We find a strong co-movement of stock market indices’ realized volatility and the search queries for their names. Furthermore, Granger causality is bi-directional: high searches follow high volatility, and high volatility follows high searches. Using the latter feedback effect to predict volatility we find that search queries contain additional information about market...

Volatility Mean Reversion and the Market Price of Volatility Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boswijk, H.P.

2001-01-01

This paper analyzes sources of derivative pricing errors in a stochastic volatility model estimated on stock return data. It is shown that such pricing errors may reflect the existence of a market price of volatility risk, but also may be caused by estimation errors due to a slow mean reversion in

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min

2009-01-01

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sang Hoon [Department of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, 660-701 (Korea); Kang, Sang-Mok; Yoon, Seong-Min [Department of Economics, Pusan National University, Busan, 609-735 (Korea)

2009-01-15

This article investigates the efficacy of a volatility model for three crude oil markets - Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - with regard to its ability to forecast and identify volatility stylized facts, in particular volatility persistence or long memory. In this context, we assess persistence in the volatility of the three crude oil prices using conditional volatility models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models are better equipped to capture persistence than are the GARCH and IGARCH models. The CGARCH and FIGARCH models also provide superior performance in out-of-sample volatility forecasts. We conclude that the CGARCH and FIGARCH models are useful for modeling and forecasting persistence in the volatility of crude oil prices. (author)

Hedging with futures: an application of GARCH to european electricity markets

OpenAIRE

G. Zanotti; G. Gabbi; M. Geranio

2009-01-01

European electricity markets have been subject to a broad deregulation process in the last few decades. We analyse hedging policies implemented through different hedge ratios estimation. More specifically we compare naïve, ordinary least squares, and GARCH conditional variance and correlations models to test if GARCH models lead to higher variance reduction in a context of high time varying volatility as the case of electricity markets. Our results show that the choice of the hedge ratio esti...

The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.

2006-01-01

This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

Load As A Reliability Resource in the Restructured Electricity Market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kueck, J.D.

2002-06-10

Recent electricity price spikes are painful reminders of the value that meaningful demand-side responses could bring to the restructuring US electricity system. Review of the aggregate offers made by suppliers confirms that even a modest increase in demand elasticity could dramatically reduce these extremes in price volatility. There is a strong need for dramatically increased customer participation in these markets to enhance system reliability and reduce price volatility. Indeed, allowing customers to manage their loads in response to system conditions might be thought of as the ultimate reliability resource. Most would agree that meaningful demand-side responses to price are the hallmark of a well-functioning competitive market [1]. Yet, in today's markets for electricity, little or no such response is evident. The reason is simple: customers currently do not experience directly the time-varying costs of their consumption decisions. Consequently, they have no incentive to modify these decisions in ways that might enhance system reliability or improve the efficiency of the markets in which electricity is traded. Increased customer participation is a necessary step in the evolution toward more efficient markets for electricity and ancillary services. This scoping report provides a three-part assessment of the current status of efforts to enhance the ability of customer's load to participate in competitive markets with a specific focus on the role of customer loads in enhancing electricity system reliability. First, this report considers the definitions of electricity-reliability-enhancing ancillary services (Section 2) and a preliminary assessment of the ability of customer's loads to provide these services. Second, is a review a variety of programs in which load has been called on as a system reliability resource (Section 3). These experiences, drawn from both past and current utility and ISO programs, focus on programs triggered by system

Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

2016-01-01

electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hou, Ai Jun

2013-01-01

The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

Science.gov (United States)

Popova, Julia

2008-10-01

This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

Investigate Volatility Jumps in Chinese Stock Index Future and Spot Markets Based on Realized Volatility

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhang qiang

2014-01-01

This paper aims to investigate Chinese stock index future and spot market's volatility jumps characteristics by using recentlydeveloped jumpstest(Barndorff-Nielsenand Shephard,2004).Thedataisoneyearhigh frequencydatafromthe period19/04/2012 to 19/04/2013. The empirical results show two important points. Firstly, the logarithm of adjusted realized volatility shows a high degree of autocorrelation and folows a normal distribution nearly perfect. These characteristics show a potential high forecast ability. Secondly,thedailyrealizedvolatilityjumpsshowalowdegreeofautocorrealtionbutwithsignificantvolatilityclusters.Ingeneral,thejumps component has a low percentage in realized volatility estimation for both future and spot market. On average, there is one significant jumpswithinevery ten continue trading days.Spotmarkets showshigherdegree of jumps,anda rapidly jumpscharacterises.It implies that jumps may transmission from spot to future market, and spot market dominate future market at some degree.

Volatility Forecasting Models and Market Co-Integration: A Study on South-East Asian Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erie Febrian

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Volatility forecasting is an imperative research field in financial markets and crucial component in most financial decisions. Nevertheless, which model should be used to assess volatility remains a complex issue as different volatility models result in different volatility approximations. The concern becomes more complicated when one tries to use the forecasting for asset distribution and risk management purposes in the linked regional markets. This paper aims at observing the effectiveness of the contending models of statistical and econometric volatility forecasting in the three South-east Asian prominent capital markets, i.e. STI, KLSE, and JKSE. In this paper, we evaluate eleven different models based on two classes of evaluation measures, i.e. symmetric and asymmetric error statistics, following Kumar's (2006 framework. We employ 10-year data as in sample and 6-month data as out of sample to construct and test the models, consecutively. The resulting superior methods, which are selected based on the out of sample forecasts and some evaluation measures in the respective markets, are then used to assess the markets cointegration. We find that the best volatility forecasting models for JKSE, KLSE, and STI are GARCH (2,1, GARCH(3,1, and GARCH (1,1, respectively. We also find that international portfolio investors cannot benefit from diversification among these three equity markets as they are cointegrated.

Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higgs, Helen

2009-01-01

This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

Harmonizing electricity markets with physics : real time performance monitoring using grid-3PTM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budhraja, V.S.

2003-01-01

The Electric Power Group, LLC provides management and strategic consulting services for the electric power industry, with special emphasis on industry restructuring, competitive electricity markets, grid operations and reliability, power technologies, venture investments and start-ups. The Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions involves national laboratories, universities, and industry partners in researching, developing, and commercializing electric reliability technology solutions to protect and enhance the reliability of the American electric power system under the emerging competitive electricity market structure. Physics differentiate electric markets from other markets: there is real-time balancing, no storage, interconnected network, and power flows governed by physics. Some issues affecting both grid reliability and market issues are difficult to separate, such as security and congestion management, voltage management, reserves, frequency volatility, and others. The author examined the following investment challenges facing the electricity market: grid solutions, market solutions, and technology solutions. The real time performance monitoring and prediction platform, grid-3P was described and applications discussed, such as ACE-frequency monitoring, performance monitoring for automatic generation control (AGC) and frequency response, voltage/VAR monitoring, stability monitoring using phasor technology, and market monitoring. figs

Exploring heterogeneous market hypothesis using realized volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Wen Cheong; Isa, Zaidi; Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari

2013-04-01

This study investigates the heterogeneous market hypothesis using high frequency data. The cascaded heterogeneous trading activities with different time durations are modelled by the heterogeneous autoregressive framework. The empirical study indicated the presence of long memory behaviour and predictability elements in the financial time series which supported heterogeneous market hypothesis. Besides the common sum-of-square intraday realized volatility, we also advocated two power variation realized volatilities in forecast evaluation and risk measurement in order to overcome the possible abrupt jumps during the credit crisis. Finally, the empirical results are used in determining the market risk using the value-at-risk approach. The findings of this study have implications for informationally market efficiency analysis, portfolio strategies and risk managements.

Volatility in financial markets: The impact of the global financial crisis

OpenAIRE

Valls Ruiz, Natàlia

2014-01-01

This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on...

EU Emission Allowances and the stock market Evidence from the electricity industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oberndorfer, Ulrich

2009-01-01

This paper constitutes - to our best knowledge - the first econometric analysis on stock market effects of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Our results suggest that EU Emission Allowance (EUA) price developments matter to the stock performance of electricity firms: EUA price changes and stock returns of the most important European electricity corporations are shown to be positively related. This effect does not work asymmetrically, so that stock markets do not seem to react differently to EUA appreciations in comparison to depreciations. The carbon market effect is shown to be both time- and country-specific: It is particularly strong for the period of EUA market shock in early 2006, and differs with respect to the countries where the electricity corporations analysed are headquartered. Stock market reactions to EUA volatility could not be shown. (author)

Volatility of an Indian stock market: A random matrix approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulkarni, V.; Deo, N.

2006-07-01

We examine volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of aspects like participation, synchronization of stocks and quantification of volatility using the random matrix approach. Volatility pattern of the market is found using the BSE index for the three-year period 2000- 2002. Random matrix analysis is carried out using daily returns of 70 stocks for several time windows of 85 days in 2001 to (i) do a brief comparative analysis with statistics of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the matrix C of correlations between price fluctuations, in time regimes of different volatilities. While a bulk of eigenvalues falls within RMT bounds in all the time periods, we see that the largest (deviating) eigenvalue correlates well with the volatility of the index, the corresponding eigenvector clearly shows a shift in the distribution of its components from volatile to less volatile periods and verifies the qualitative association between participation and volatility (ii) observe that the Inverse participation ratio for the last eigenvector is sensitive to market fluctuations (the two quantities are observed to anti correlate significantly) (iii) set up a variability index, V whose temporal evolution is found to be significantly correlated with the volatility of the overall market index. MIRAMAR (author)

Deregulation of Electricity Market and Drivers of Demand for Electrical Energy in Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojnec Štefan

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates deregulation of electricity market focusing on electricity prices and drivers of demand for electrical energy in industry in Slovenia. The patterns in evolution of real electricity price developments and the three main components of the electricity price are calculated: liberalized market share for purchased electricity price, regulated infrastructure share for use of electricity network grids and mandatory state charges in the sale of electricity (duty, excise duty and value-added tax. To calculate the real value of electricity prices, producer price index of industrial commodities for electricity prices in industry is used as deflator and implicit deflator of gross domestic product for the size of the economy. In the empirical econometric part is used regression analysis for the amount electricity consumption in the industry depending on the real gross domestic product, direct and cross-price elasticity for natural gas prices in the industry. The results confirmed volatility in real electricity price developments with their increasing tendency and the increasing share of different taxes and state charges in the electricity prices for industry. Demand for electrical energy in industry is positively associated with gross domestic product and price of natural gas as substitute for electrical energy in industry use, and negatively associated with prices of electrical energy for industry.

Electricity market 2001

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-09-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment.

Electricity market 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-09-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have had a common electricity market since 1996. The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2001' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment

Policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ochoa, Patricia; Van Ackere, Ann

2009-01-01

Capacity of supply is a crucial matter in electricity markets as it directly influences reliability of supply, price volatility and blackout risk. In this paper, we analyse the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market and the impact of different policies such as nuclear phaseout and management of electricity exchanges - imports and exports - policies. This article develops the conceptualization model presented in [Ochoa, P., 2007b. Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: a system dynamics analysis of likely market responses. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 41 (4):336-349.]. We build a system dynamics model based on the dynamics of capacity expansion explained in the latter paper and present and analyse different scenarios. We conclude that international electricity exchanges are important for the Swiss market as they help to lower costs and to increase the income of the utility companies; however, we illustrate the need for explicit policies for managing imports and exports of electricity to avoid import dependence from neighbouring countries. (author)

Electricity market 2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

2000-08-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment.

Electricity market 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korsfeldt, T.; Petsala, B.

2000-08-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. Sweden, Norway and Finland have a common electricity market since 1996.The work of also reforming the Danish electricity market was begun in the year 2000. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition,to give the consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and expanded trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish National Energy Administration is the supervisory authority as specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and to regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of the present publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic markets.The publication includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

The international electricity market infrastructure-insight from the nordic electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Zheng; Prljaca, Zerina; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

2016-01-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of an international electricity market for the emerging market players to understand and manipulate their roles and relationships in the market by analyzing the former, present, and future Nordic electricity market. The emerging market players...... and their relationships are also discussed in the paper. This paper outlines several suggestions for the future Nordic electricity market development. Furthermore, this paper provides a recommendation for countries interested in participating and developing the cross-national electricity markets with the discussion...... of the historical development of the Nordic electricity market....

Volatility Spillovers in Capesize Forward Freight Agreement Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxing Gong

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is to investigate spillovers in the Capesize forward freight agreements (FFAs markets before and after the global financial crisis. The paper chooses four Capesize voyage routes FFAs (C3, C4, C5, and C7, two time-charter routes FFAs (BCIT/C average, BPI T/C average, and spot rates as research subjects, covering the periods 3 January 2006 to 24 December 2015. This paper applies Volatility Spillover Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (VS-MSV model to analyze volatility spillover effects and estimates the parameters via software of Bayesian inference using Gibbs Sampling (BUGS, the deviance information criterion (DIC used for goodness-of-fit model. The results suggest that there are volatility spillover effects in certain Capesize FFAs routes, and the effects from spot rates to FFAs take place before crisis, yet they are bilateral after crisis. With the development of shipping markets, the correlations between FFAs and spot rate are enhanced, and it seems that the effects depend on market information and traders’ behavior. So practitioners could make decisions according to the spillovers.

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in the Iran electricity market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bigdeli, N.; Afshar, K.; Amjady, N.

2009-01-01

Market data analysis and short-term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered in this paper. The data analysis procedure includes both correlation and predictability analysis of the most important load and price indices. The employed data are the experimental time series from Iran electricity market in its real size and is long enough to make it possible to take properties such as non-stationarity of market into account. For predictability analysis, the bifurcation diagrams and recurrence plots of the data have been investigated. The results of these analyses indicate existence of deterministic chaos in addition to non-stationarity property of the system which implies short-term predictability. In the next step, two artificial neural networks have been developed for forecasting the two price indices in Iran's electricity market. The models' input sets are selected regarding four aspects: the correlation properties of the available data, the critiques of Iran's electricity market, a proper convergence rate in case of sudden variations in the market price behavior, and the omission of cumulative forecasting errors. The simulation results based on experimental data from Iran electricity market are representative of good performance of the developed neural networks in coping with and forecasting of the market behavior, even in the case of severe volatility in the market price indices. (author)

Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

2013-01-01

This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalid Nainar, S.M.

1993-01-01

This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oberndorfer, Ulrich

2009-01-01

This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

Volatility Informed Trading in the Options Market: Evidence from India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajesh Pathak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the trading activity in options market based on information about expected future volatility in spot market. We employ Common Implied Volatility as a measure of expected volatility and options volume and changes in Open Interests as measures of options trading activity. We first test for simultaneous information flow in the two markets using multiple regression technique. Next, we test for information based or hedge based use of options using Trivariate Vector-auto Regression framework. We further consider the classes of options moneyness and the market trends in our analysis to examine if the trader’s preference of options changes with change in description of options intrinsic value and market environment. We use daily closing data of S&P CNX Nifty Index options traded on National Stock Exchange, India. We, for the most part, find negative and significant relationship in contemporaneous regression suggesting active trading by arbitrageurs. A feedback relationship is observed in vector auto regression analysis suggesting that options are traded in India for both information based trading and hedging purposes. We also observe the relationship to be varying when market trends and classes of options moneyness are considered. This indicates that traders are not indifferent in their choice of trading venue when market conditions and factors change. The results of this study are helpful for traders in managing the risk and return of their portfolio based on volatility forecast. This study is distinctive as it examines the scarcely researched area of volatility informed trading in an emerging market set up.

Bitcoin Market Volatility Analysis Using Grand Canonical Minority Game

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matteo Ortisi

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we propose to use the Grand Canonical Minority Game (GCMG, a highly simplified financial market model as a model of bitcoin market to show how the lack of an income for “miners”, similar to yield earned by bond holders, could be a structural reason for high volatility of bitcoin price in a reference currency. Coherently with present analysis, the introduction of future contracts on bitcoin would have the effect of reducing the overall market volatility.

Restructuring in the Electricity Markets and Structural Transformation in Turkish Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Electricity markets are changed over from monopolistic to competitive structure. In many countries liberalization process in electricity markets began after 1980. In this study models for restructuring the electricity markets are explained with the natural monopoly and its regulation which is discussed in economic theory over many years. Then structural transformation in Turkish Electricity Market is explained within the legal arrangament framework and in liberalization process of electricity markets current state of Turkey is evaluated. In Turkey, the reform process in electricity market began with the liberalization of production and ıt is contiuned to change the design of the wholesale market. There has been significant progress for energy exchange by the establishment of EPİAŞ with the Electricity Market Law Numbered 6446 in 2013.

Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baele, L.

2003-01-01

This paper quantifies the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and US market to 13 local European equity markets.I develop a shock spillover model that decomposes local unexpected returns into a country speciffic shock, a regional European

Low-Frequency Volatility in China’s Gold Futures Market and Its Macroeconomic Determinants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Song Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We extract low- and high-frequency volatility from China’s Shanghai gold futures market using an asymmetric Spline-GARCH (ASP-GARCH model. We then regress monthly low-frequency volatility on selected monthly macroeconomic indicators to study the impact of macroeconomy on gold futures market and to test for excess volatility. Our main result is volatility in China’s Shanghai gold futures market resulting from both macroeconomic fluctuations and investor behaviour. Chinese Consumer Price Index Volatility and US dollar volatility are the two main determinants of low-frequency gold volatility. We also find significant evidence of excess volatility, which can in part be explained in terms of loss-aversive investor behaviour.

Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

2007-08-01

Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

Stochastic volatility and multi-dimensional modeling in the European energy market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vos, Linda

2012-07-01

In energy prices there is evidence for stochastic volatility. Stochastic volatility has effect on the price of path-dependent options and therefore has to be modeled properly. We introduced a multi-dimensional non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model with leverage which can be used in energy pricing. It captures special features of energy prices like price spikes, mean-reversion, stochastic volatility and inverse leverage. Moreover it allows modeling dependencies between different commodities.The derived forward price dynamics based on this multi-variate spot price model, provides a very flexible structure. It includes cotango, backwardation and hump shape forward curves.Alternatively energy prices could be modeled by a 2-factor model consisting of a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process and a non-stationary trend models by a Levy process. Also this model is able to capture special features like price spikes, mean reversion and the low frequency dynamics in the market. An robust L1-filter is introduced to filter out the states of the CARMA process. When applying to German electricity EEX exchange data an overall negative risk-premium is found. However close to delivery a positive risk-premium is observed.(Author)

Adaptive Sniping for Volatile and Stable Continuous Double Auction Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Toft, I. E.; Bagnall, A. J.

This paper introduces a new adaptive sniping agent for the Continuous Double Auction. We begin by analysing the performance of the well known Kaplan sniper in two extremes of market conditions. We generate volatile and stable market conditions using the well known Zero Intelligence-Constrained agent and a new zero-intelligence agent Small Increment (SI). ZI-C agents submit random but profitable bids/offers and cause high volatility in prices and individual trader performance. Our new zero-intelligence agent, SI, makes small random adjustments to the outstanding bid/offer and hence is more cautious than ZI-C. We present results for SI in self-play and then analyse Kaplan in volatile and stable markets. We demonstrate that the non-adaptive Kaplan sniper can be configured to suit either market conditions, but no single configuration is performs well across both market types. We believe that in a dynamic auction environment where current or future market conditions cannot be predicted a viable sniping strategy should adapt its behaviour to suit prevailing market conditions. To this end, we propose the Adaptive Sniper (AS) agent for the CDA. AS traders classify sniping opportunities using a statistical model of market activity and adjust their classification thresholds using a Widrow-Hoff adapted search. Our AS agent requires little configuration, and outperforms the original Kaplan sniper in volatile and stable markets, and in a mixed trader type scenario that includes adaptive strategies from the literature.

Volatility of Stock Markets (an Analysis of South Asian and G8 Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Mansoor Baig

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to make an analysis of volatility of stock markets between South Asian Stock Markets and Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries. This study important for the investors whose want to invest in stock markets. This study helps investors to determine what stock market is more volatile. To make the analysis three South Asian stock markets and Group of Eight countries stock markets are selected. South Asian stock markets indexes include KSE 100 (Pakistan, SENSEX (India, ASPI (Sri Lanka, CAC 40 (France, DAX (Germany, S &P / TSX Composite (Canada, FTSE MIB (Italy, RTS (Russia, Nikkei 225 (Japan, S & P 500 (USA and FTSE 100 (UK. Data is collected from the period of January 1st 2005 to August 31st 2015. ARCH and GARCH model is used to analyze the volatility of South Asian Stock Markets and stock markets of Group of Eight Countries. The findings show that South Asian Stock Markets are less volatile while Stock Markets of Group of Eight Countries are high volatile. This study is useful for investment institutions and portfolio managers because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data.

Assessing the options for a competitive electricity market in Israel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tishler, A.; Newman, J.; Spekterman, I.; Woo, C.K.

2008-01-01

In July 2006, the Israeli government affirmed its 2003 decision to reform the Israeli electricity industry, currently dominated by the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC), a government-owned vertically integrated electric utility. The reform calls for the deregulation and privatization of the generation and customer service segments of the industry, leaving transmission and distribution (T and D) regulated to provide open access to all end-users. This paper projects the performance of the post-reform market structure for the period 2007-2030 relative to that of the status quo. The post-reform generation market's prices are determined according to the Cournot conjecture. To mitigate excessive price volatility and surges, the generation market also includes a firm that is contracted to make peak electricity sales to customers at a pre-determined price, only when the competitive price exceeds the pre-determined level. Our results show (a) the post-reform retail prices for end-users will exceed those under the status quo; (b) the post-reform profits may not be sufficient to keep firms operating combined cycle generation units financially viable; and (c) the net benefit from deregulating the electricity sector in Israel will most likely be negative. (author)

Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

2004-01-01

Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš

2015-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 3 (2015), s. 309-329 ISSN 0195-6574 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA14-24129S Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Asymmetry * Petroleum markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.662, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0438407.pdf

The electricity market 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The electricity markets in the Nordic countries have undergone major changes since the electricity market reform work was started in the early 1990s. We now have a common Nordic electricity market that includes all of the Nordic countries, with the exception of Iceland. The objective of the electricity market reform is to introduce increased competition, to give consumers greater freedom of choice and also, by open and increased trade in electricity, create the conditions for efficient pricing. The Swedish Energy Agency is the supervisory authority specified in the Electricity Act, and one of the tasks entrusted to it by the Government is to follow developments on the electricity market and regularly compile and report current market information. The purpose of 'The Electricity Market 2003' publication is to meet the need for generalized and easily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. The publication also includes summaries of the information from recent years concerning power generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment

Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

2011-01-01

This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

A Study of Demand Response Effect of Thermal Storage Air-Conditioning Systems in Consideration of Electricity Market Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Omagari, Yuko; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

This paper evaluates the economic impact of the introduction of customer-owned Thermal Storage Air-conditioning (TSA) systems, in an electricity market, from the viewpoint of the load service entity. We perform simulations on the condition that several thousand customers install TSA systems and shift peak demand in an electricity market by one percent. Our numerical results indicate that the purchase cost of the LSE was reduced through load management of customers with TSA systems. The introduction of TSA systems also reduced the volatility of market clearing price and reduced the whole-trade cost in an electricity market.

How to analyze the supply and demand balance to predict future volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willis, K.

2002-01-01

The impact of electricity price volatility with a focus on supply and demand is discussed. Factors that influence volatility and the impact of volatility on market participants are also highlighted. It is this author's view that despite initial difficulties and customary inefficiencies (not unusual in a new market), the market performed as might have been expected and government interference in the market was not necessary. As far as market participants are concerned, they must be vigilant at all times because of the millisecond time horizons; an understanding of market volatility and its key drivers are absolutely essential to proper management of risks inherent in the market. An understanding of the relationship between supply and demand and volatility is important. Just as important, or even more so, is an appreciation of the delicate nature of this relationship and the dynamics behind it. Consequently, one must apply the same rigor that is used to analyze supply and demand in the electricity market to other market fundamentals such as the natural gas market, interconnections, generation fuel sources, regulatory actions and market rules. A three-step process, involving a review of history to develop the relationships, supply and demand forecasts and scenario planning, is proposed for use in analyzing supply and demand to predict future volatility. Irrespective of the sophistication of analytical tools, the most important determinant to success in the electricity market is for market players to perceive the earliest signs of a changing market landscape and respond to them with lightning speed

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Stock Market Volatility and Correlation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asgharian, Hossein; Christiansen, Charlotte; Hou, Ai Jun

We use Baker, Bloom, and Davis’s (2016) economic policy uncertainty indices in combination with the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach to investigate long-run stock market volatility and correlation, primarily for the US and UK. Long-run US–UK stock market correlation depends positively on US...... economic policy uncertainty shocks. The dependence is asymmetric, with only positive shocks - increasing uncertainty - being of importance. The US long-run stock market volatility depends significantly on US economic policy uncertainty shocks but not on UK shocks, while the UK long-run stock market...... volatility depends significantly on both. Allowing for US economic policy uncertainty shocks improves the out-of-sample forecasting of US–UK stock market correlation and enhances portfolio performance. Similar results apply to the long-run correlation between the US and Canada, China, and Germany....

Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh T.

2009-01-01

This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

Market completeness. How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willems, Bert; Morbee, Joris

2010-01-01

The high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to 'crowding-out' of physical investments because firms' limited risk-taking capabilities are being used to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete. (author)

Papers of a Canadian Institute conference : Western electricity markets forum : Are you prepared for regulatory restructuring and standard market design?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This forum on western electricity markets presented the latest information concerning several challenges facing the electricity markets of both Western Canada and the United States. Corporate leaders and industry regulators addressed a number of issues. Among them, the California Independent System Operator presented its views on the Standard Market Design initiative which has the potential to alter the dynamics of power markets in Canada and the United States. The creation of a new International Organization for Standardization (ISO) structure for Alberta's deregulated power markets was discussed by both the Power Pool of Alberta and the Alberta Department of Energy. The outlook for electricity price volatility in the west was examined in a presentation by BP Energy Canada. The prospect for transmission links between Alberta and other western states and provinces was the topic of presentations made by ATCO Electric and AltaLink. The future of the power generation in Alberta was discussed by TransAlta, EPCOR, and ENMAX. In addition, there were two case studies presented from the California Energy Commission and the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) of Ontario concerning the progress made to date on electricity deregulation. A look at lessons to be learned from other jurisdictions was also included. A total of sixteen presentations were made at this forum, of which five have been indexed separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs

Market Survey Turkey. Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-12-01

The present market survey presents the Turkish power market and derives business opportunities and prospects for Dutch trade and industry. This market survey has been carried out for the following four, from time to time overlapping, sectors that have been identified by EVD as potential opportunities for Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SME): renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity generation, electricity distribution

Feed-in tariff and market electricity price comparison. The case of cogeneration units in Croatia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uran, Vedran; Krajcar, Slavko

2009-01-01

In August 2007, the Government of the Republic of Croatia instituted a feed-in tariff system, requiring the Croatian Electricity Market Operator (HROTE) to off-take the electricity produced from renewable energy sources or cogeneration units fueled by natural gas. Analysis of the off-take electricity price range, which depends on the net electrical output and electricity market trends, indicates that it is more cost effective for cogeneration units greater than 1 MW to sell their electricity on the exchange market. This was confirmed by developing a mathematical model to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio of a cogeneration unit. This ratio represents the relation between the profit spread, i.e. the difference between the profit generated from selling the electricity on the exchange market and the profit made from dispatching the electricity to HROTE, as well as the total investment costs. The model can be applied for changes in certain parameters, such as the net electrical output, volatility and spot electricity price. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the most probable cost-effectiveness ratio and average future electricity price. Together with these two economic parameters and market price analysis, it is possible to calculate and calibrate an acceptable off-take electricity price. (author)

Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

1997-12-31

Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

2018-02-01

This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

Unified electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2011-01-01

A unified European electricity market means a unification and harmonisation of functioning of the national electricity market into one European Market or into one entity. It gives an opportunity to Slovenske elektrarne to open room for their wider activity within Europe where common rules for cross-boarder trade and markets functioning will apply. (author)

Essays on wholesale auctions in deregulated electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Baltaduonis, Rimvydas

2007-12-01

The early experience in the restructured electric power markets raised several issues, including price spikes, inefficiency, security, and the overall relationship of market clearing prices to generation costs. Unsatisfactory outcomes in these markets are thought to have resulted in part from strategic generator behaviors encouraged by inappropriate market design features. In this dissertation, I examine the performance of three auction mechanisms for wholesale power markets - Offer Cost Minimization auction, Payment Cost Minimization auction and Simple-Offer auction - when electricity suppliers act strategically. A Payment Cost Minimization auction has been proposed as an alternative to the traditional Offer Cost Minimization auction with the intention to solve the problem of inflated wholesale electricity prices. Efficiency concerns for this proposal were voiced due to insights predicated on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using a game theoretic approach and an experimental method, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices that they are willing to sell at, but also the start-up fees, which are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that the complex structure of the offers leaves considerable room for strategic behavior, which consequently leads to anti-competitive and inefficient market outcomes. In the last chapter of my dissertation, I use laboratory experiments to contrast the performance of two complex-offer auctions against the performance of a simple-offer auction, in which the sellers have to recover all their generation costs - fixed and variable - through a uniform market-clearing price. I find that a simple-offer auction significantly reduces consumer prices and lowers price volatility. It mitigates anti-competitive effects

From Market Uncertainty to Policy Uncertainty for Investment in Power Generation: Real Options for NPP on Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, Zeljko

2014-01-01

In the electricity sector, market participants must make decisions about capacity choice in a situation of radical uncertainty about future market conditions. Sector is normally characterised by non-storability and periodic and stochastic demand fluctuations. In these cases capacity determination is a decision for the long term, whereas production is adjusted in the short run. Capacities need to be installed well in advance (decision for investment even earlier because of long construction time and even longer in case of NPP to prepare all needed legal, financial and physical infrastructure), at times when firms face considerable demand and cost uncertainty when choosing their capacity. Paper looks on the main contributions in investment planning under uncertainty, in particular in the electricity market for capital intensive investments like NPP. The relationship between market and non-market factors (recent UK policy example) in determining investment signals in competitive electricity markets was analysed. Paper analyse the ability of competitive electricity markets to deliver the desired quantity and type of generation capacity and also investigates the variety of market imperfections operating in electricity generation and their impact on long-term dynamics for generation capacity, the most capital-intensive of the liberalised functions in the electricity supply industry. Paper analyses how price formation influences investment signals. Today, investment decisions are made by several operators that act independently. Number of factors (including market power, wholesale price volatility, lack of liquidity in the wholesale and financial market, policy and regulatory risks etc.) contribute to polluting the price signal and generating sub-optimal behaviour. Climate change policies can easily distort market signals, insulating renewables generation from market dynamics. This in turn reduces the proportion of the market that is effectively opened to competitive

Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

2015-01-01

This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

The intra- and interstate excess market return for low- and high-volatility level

OpenAIRE

Poon, Gary

2006-01-01

This paper provides a method to estimate the market risk premium that accounts for shifts in investment opportunities by explicitly modeling the volaiility level. This method decomposes the market risk premium into two components., the expected risk premium within the volatility state and risk premium associate with an unexpected change in volatility state. I find that the expected risk premium within the state is negatively related to the market volatility, which is consistent with empirical...

Essays on electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rud, Linda

2009-07-01

The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

Essays on electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rud, Linda

2009-07-01

The report covers several topics of electricity markets: The first essay, 'Selected Topics on Early Electricity Market Design in Norway' studies market design issues in establishing the market-based Norwegian electricity market. Essays 2-4 focus on issues of network congestion: 'Capacity Charges: A Price Adjustment Process for Managing Congestion in Electricity Transmission Networks' presents the capacity charge approach for managing transmission constraints in electricity networks. 'Understanding the Stochastics of Nodal Prices: Price Processes in a Constrained Network' seeks a further understanding of stochastic nodal prices processes. 'Investment Evaluation in a Constrained Electricity Network with Stochastic Nodal Price Processes' studies how the interaction of the competitive market and the capacitated network affects the evaluation of investments under uncertainty, and points out potential pitfalls of evaluation. In the last essay, 'A Newsboy Model Perspective on the Power Market: The Case of a Wind Power Producer' we discuss aspects of optimal bidding for a wind power producer. (Author)

Future Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre

2015-01-01

The changing face of energy production in Europe necessitates a rethink in the way that electricity markets are structured. The ‘5s’ (Future Electricity Markets) project is a multi-disciplinary project that is looking to challenge the current approach to the design and operation of electricity...

Electricity markets theories and applications

CERN Document Server

Lin, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Electricity Markets: Theories and Applications offers students and practitioners a clear understanding of the fundamental concepts of the economic theories, particularly microeconomic theories, as well as information on some advanced optimization methods of electricity markets. The authors--noted experts in the field--cover the basic drivers for the transformation of the electricity industry in both the United States and around the world and discuss the fundamentals of power system operation, electricity market design and structures, and electricity market operations. The text also explores advanced topics of power system operations and electricity market design and structure including zonal versus nodal pricing, market performance and market power issues, transmission pricing, and the emerging problems electricity markets face in smart grid and micro-grid environments. The authors also examine system planning under the context of electricity market regime. They explain the new ways to solve problems with t...

Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

2007-01-01

A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

Electricity market risk management using forward contracts with bilateral options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, T.S.; Yu, C.W.; Wong, K.P.; Zhang, S.H.

2003-01-01

Extreme short-term price volatility in competitive electricity markets creates the need for risk management arrangements. A new electricity forward contract with bilateral financial options is introduced, which allows both seller and buyer to take advantage of flexibility in generation and consumption to obtain monetary benefits while simultaneously removing the risk of market price fluctuations. The option theory is incorporated to formulate the contract price. The strike prices of options are derived from solving an equilibrium model in which both the buyer and the seller aim to maximise their own profit. Theoretical analysis shows that the proposed optional forward contract presents a more equitable and reasonable payoff structure that allows the buyer and seller to earn a larger overall expected benefit, and the contractual arrangement supports efficiency in economic dispatch of electricity production and consumption. The insights obtained from these results will be helpful to participants in the contractual decision-making process. (Author)

Volatility in the Housing Market: Evidence on Risk and Return in theLondon Sub-market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve Cook

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The impact of volatility in housing market analysis is reconsidered via examinaton ofthe risk-return relationship in the London housing market is examined. In addition to providing thefirst empirical results for the relationship between risk (as measured by volatility and returns forthis submarket, the analysis offers a more general message to empiricists via a detailed and explicitevaluation of the impact of empirical design decisions upon inferences. In particular, the negativerisk-return relationship discussed frequently in the housing market literature is examined and shown todepend upon typically overlooked decisions concerning components of the empirical framework fromwhich statistical inferences are drawn.

How to obtain high returns with lower volatility in emerging markets?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nipun Agarwal

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Emerging markets equity indexes are usually seen as high return with a high degree of volatility associated with them. However, this should not be the case, if you choose high-quality firms that have increasing returns and lower volatility. The intent of this paper is to introduce the risk weighted alpha (RWA indexation method that helps identify stocks that have stable increasing returns with lower volatility. In order to review this method in the context of emerging markets scenario, this paper takes the example of the Sensex index listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE that comprises India’s top 30 stocks by market capitalisation. Results show that some stocks like Hindustan Lever do show increasing returns and lower volatility. The RWA Sensex index outperforms the BSE Sensex index, while still maintaining a beta that is the same as that in the BSE Sensex index.

The European power industry : asymmetries and price volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isabel, M.; Soares, R.T.

2005-01-01

A time series model was used to obtain empirical evidence on the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. The model was based on a single market operator and 2 system operators. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to model and forecast conditional variances related to the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. A correlogram analysis was used to model the processes behind the time series. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were used to demonstrate that the the derived electricity spot price series was not a random walk. Lags in various areas were attributed to the fact that a large proportion of electricity is consumed by industry. Weekly cycles justified values presented by a lags multiple of 7. Results of the modelling study showed that the method can be used in the risk management of electricity portfolios as well as in the pricing and hedging of different types of derivatives in electricity markets. It was concluded that further work is needed to reduce instability and asymmetries between generators, consumers and regulators. 16 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs

The electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

After a first part proposing predictions for electricity production and consumption for 2016, for the turnovers of electricity suppliers and producers, an indication of important recent important events regarding enterprises belonging to the sector, and a dashboard of the sector activity, an annual report proposes a detailed overview of trends and of the competition context for the electricity market. It identifies the main market opportunities for electricity suppliers, identifies eight determining factors for the sector activity, gives an overview of the sector context evolution between 2004 and 2014 (temperatures, rainfalls, manufacturing industry production, housing and office building stock, projected housing and office building). It analyses the evolution of the sector activity by presenting and commenting various activity indicators and financial performance of electricity producers. It analyses the sector economic structure: evolution of the economic fabric, presentation of various structural characteristics (cross-border exchanges, production capacities per energy source, nuclear plant fleet, thermal plant fleet, location, electricity supply market). It proposes a presentation of the various actors and of their respective market shares, and presentations of groups, electricity suppliers, and electricity producers. It indicates highlights and presents various rankings of the main enterprises in 2014

Slovenian and Spanish electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bregar, Z.

2004-01-01

Spanish electricity market has served as a basic model in the construction of the electricity market in Slovenia. However, in the final phase of its development additional solutions were adopted from other European and worldwide electricity markets. The electricity market thus obtained is in some aspects more complex and in others simpler with regard to the original model. This article describes two of the new solutions on the Slovenian electricity market: the introduction of numerous standardized electric energy products (Band, Peak, Off-peak, Hourly power etc.) to be traded on completely separate markets, and the introduction of continuous, real-time type trading on all of them but the hourly market.(author)

Transitional rates, risk and the Ontario wholesale power market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rothman, M.

2001-01-01

Navigant Consulting is a large investor-owned management consulting firm specializing in energy-based and other networked and regulated industries across Canada. The company works with clients to create delivery and protect shareholder value in the face of uncertainty and change. This presentation discussed the issue of price volatility in competitive electricity markets. The points to keep in mind for pricing in competitive power markets is that: (1) electricity should be generated simultaneously with use, (2) rates in administered markets are average over some time period, (3) competitive pool markets do not average costs, (4) in competitive pool markets, prices are set in very short (hourly or less) intervals, (5) prices in competitive markets are more volatile than in administered markets for both economic and market structure reasons, and (6) the degree of volatility and price levels can change quickly. The Ontario power market was also discussed with reference to price volatility in Ontario and what this means for electricity customers. tabs., figs

Cohesiveness in financial news and its relation to market volatility.

Science.gov (United States)

Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Smuc, Tomislav

2014-05-22

Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets.

Cohesiveness in Financial News and its Relation to Market Volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Piškorec, Matija; Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Novak, Petra Kralj; Mozetič, Igor; Grčar, Miha; Vodenska, Irena; Šmuc, Tomislav

2014-01-01

Motivated by recent financial crises, significant research efforts have been put into studying contagion effects and herding behaviour in financial markets. Much less has been said regarding the influence of financial news on financial markets. We propose a novel measure of collective behaviour based on financial news on the Web, the News Cohesiveness Index (NCI), and we demonstrate that the index can be used as a financial market volatility indicator. We evaluate the NCI using financial documents from large Web news sources on a daily basis from October 2011 to July 2013 and analyse the interplay between financial markets and finance-related news. We hypothesise that strong cohesion in financial news reflects movements in the financial markets. Our results indicate that cohesiveness in financial news is highly correlated with and driven by volatility in financial markets. PMID:24849598

Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adedoyin I. Lawal

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

Combined scheduling of electricity and heat in a microgrid with volatile wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Lizhong; Yang, Guang Ya; Xu, Zhao

2011-01-01

An optimization model is developed for scheduling electricity and heat production in a microgrid under a day-ahead market environment considering the operation constraints and the volatility of wind power generation. The model optimizes the total operation costs from energy and heating consumption...... into a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem. Numerical simulations present the efficacy of the proposed model for day-ahead scheduling of a microgrid with wind penetration under the deregulated environment. © 2011 State Grid Electrtic Resarch Institute Press....

Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2009-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

Effects of interruptible load program on equilibrium outcomes of electricity markets with wind power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An, Xuena; Zhang, Shaohua; Li, Xue [Shanghai Univ. (China). Key Lab. of Power Station Automation Technology

2013-07-01

High wind power penetration presents a lot of challenges to the flexibility and reliability of power system operation. In this environment, various demand response (DR) programs have got much attention. As an effective measure of demand response programs, interruptible load (IL) programs have been widely used in electricity markets. This paper addresses the problem of impacts of the IL programs on the equilibrium outcomes of electricity wholesale markets with wind power. A Cournot equilibrium model of wholesale markets with wind power is presented, in which IL programs is included by a market demand model. The introduction of the IL programs leads to a non-smooth equilibrium problem. To solve this equilibrium problem, a novel solution method is proposed. Numerical examples show that IL programs can lower market price and its volatility significantly, facilitate the integration of wind power.

The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastianin, Andrea; Conti, Francesca; Manera, Matteo

2016-01-01

We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. We identify the causes underlying oil price shocks and gauge the impacts that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility. We show that stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. On the contrary, demand shocks impact significantly on the volatility of the G7 stock markets. Our results suggest that economic policies and financial regulation activities designed to mitigate the adverse effects of unexpected oil price movements should be designed by looking at the source of the oil price shocks. - Highlights: • Effects of oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 countries. • Econometric identification of the different causes of oil shocks. • Stock market volatility does not respond to oil supply shocks. • Demand shocks impact significantly on stock market volatility. • Policy measures should be designed by considering the source of oil shocks.

The influence of volatility spill-overs and market beta on portfolio construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Heymans

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This study adds to Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT by providing an additional measure to market beta in constructing a more efficient investment portfolio. The additional measure analyses the volatility spill-over effects among stocks within the same portfolio. Using intraday stock returns from five top-40 listed stocks on the JSE between July 2008 and April 2010, volatility spill-over effects were estimated with a residual- based test (aggregate shock [AS] model framework. It is shown that when a particular stock attracted fewer volatility spill-over effects from the other stocks in the portfolio, the overall portfolio volatility decreased as well. In most cases market beta showcased similar results. Therefore, in order to construct a more efficient risk- adjusted portfolio, one requires both a portfolio that has a unit correlation with the market (beta-based, and stocks that showcase the least amount of volatility spill-over effects amongst one another. These results might assist portfolio managers to construct lower mean variance portfolios.

Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market

OpenAIRE

Priyanka Singh; Brajesh Kumar; Pandey, Ajay

2008-01-01

This paper investigates interdependence of fifteen world indices including an Indian market index in terms of return and volatility spillover effect. Interdependence of Indian stock market with other fourteen world markets in terms of long run integration, short run dependence (return spillover) and volatility spillover are investigated. These markets are that of are Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and U...

"Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

OpenAIRE

Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

2009-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tansuchat, Roengchai

2010-01-01

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Analyzing and forecasting volatility spillovers, asymmetries and hedging in major oil markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Chia-Lin [Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taichung, 250 Kuo Kuang Road, National Chung Hsing University Taichung 402 (China); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Tansuchat, Roengchai [Faculty of Economics, Maejo University (Thailand)

2010-11-15

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia-Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover and asymmetric effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the constant conditional correlation (CCC), vector ARMA-GARCH (VARMA-GARCH) and vector ARMA-asymmetric GARCH (VARMA-AGARCH) models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecast conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends. Moreover, the optimal hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights of crude oil across different assets and market portfolios are evaluated in order to provide important policy implications for risk management in crude oil markets. (author)

Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

Science.gov (United States)

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-11-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Measuring and Forecasting Financial Market Volatility using High-Frequency Data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

K. Bannouh (Karim)

2013-01-01

textabstractThis dissertation consists of three studies on the use of intraday asset price data for accurate measurement and forecasting of financial market volatility. Chapter 2 proposes a refined heuristic bias-correction for the two time scales realized range-based volatility estimator in the

Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

2013-01-01

This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.

2012-01-01

This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher

Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hernandez, M.A.; Gardebroek, C.

2012-01-01

This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. The estimation results indicate a higher

Testing the Relationship between Interest Rates Volatility and Market Capitalization: the case of Mauritius

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edesiri Godsday Okoro

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper tests the relationship between interest rates volatility and market capitalization in Mauritius. Using annual time series data sourced from the Financial Services Commission Annual Statistical Bulletin of Mauritius during the period 2006 through 2010, data of interest rates volatility and market capitalization were estimated in a non-linear model using the Vector Auto-regression technique. The study found that interest rates volatility has significant effect on the level of market capitalization although a negative effect. This implies a negative relationship between interest rates volatility and market capitalization. Thus, if market capitalization is affected by interest rates, then the economy becomes highly susceptible to volatile external distress. This indicates some dangers for the economic survival of Mauritius. It was on this note that we recommended an effective policy aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic variable like interest rates, focusing at the same time on alternative measures of promoting market capitalization if aggregate economic growth must be harnessed. Policymakers should design the optimal policy mix that would help the nation cope efficiently with the economic and social costs of the external distress accompanying higher and dwindling interest rates in Mauritius.

The properties of realized volatility and realized correlation: Evidence from the Indian stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos; Vortelinos, Dimitrios I.; Saha, Shrabani

2018-02-01

This paper investigates the properties of realized volatility and correlation series in the Indian stock market by employing daily data converting to monthly frequency of five different stock indices from January 2, 2006 to November 30, 2014. Using non-parametric estimation technique the properties examined include normality, long-memory, asymmetries, jumps, and heterogeneity. The realized volatility is a useful technique which provides a relatively accurate measure of volatility based on the actual variance which is beneficial for asset management in particular for non-speculative funds. The results show that realized volatility and correlation series are not normally distributed, with some evidence of persistence. Asymmetries are also evident in both volatilities and correlations. Both jumps and heterogeneity properties are significant; whereas, the former is more significant than the latter. The findings show that properties of volatilities and correlations in Indian stock market have similarities as that show in the stock markets in developed countries such as the stock market in the United States which is more prevalent for speculative business traders.

Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

An integrated ant colony optimization approach to compare strategies of clearing market in electricity markets. Agent-based simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Maleki-Shoja, B.; Skandari, M.R.

2010-01-01

In this paper, an innovative model of agent based simulation, based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm is proposed in order to compare three available strategies of clearing wholesale electricity markets, i.e. uniform, pay-as-bid, and generalized Vickrey rules. The supply side actors of the power market are modeled as adaptive agents who learn how to bid strategically to optimize their profit through indirect interaction with other actors of the market. The proposed model is proper for bidding functions with high number of dimensions and enables modelers to avoid curse of dimensionality as dimension grows. Test systems are then used to study the behavior of each pricing rule under different degrees of competition and heterogeneity. Finally, the pricing rules are comprehensively compared using different economic criteria such as average cleared price, efficiency of allocation, and price volatility. Also, principle component analysis (PCA) is used to rank and select the best price rule. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study that uses ACO for assessing strategies of wholesale electricity market. (author)

Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taly I

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

Market power analysis for the Iranian electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asgari, Mohammad Hossein; Monsef, Hassan

2010-01-01

The market power problem in Iranian electricity market is addressed in this study. This paper by using various structural indices of market power and reviewing market results analyzes the intensity of competition in Iran's electricity market and examines whether this market is functioning at an appropriate level of efficiency. In this article the most well-known indices of market power are calculated in two approaches for two different scenarios (current situation and future outlook of generation sector's ownership in Iran's power industry). Comparing the results of these scenarios promises more competitive market for the second scenario. Calculating Residual Supply Index for Iran's power market shows despite admissible values of concentration ratios, due to supply scarcity during periods when the demand is close to the total available capacity, some suppliers can exercise market power even with a relatively small market share. The most important price and load indices like weighted average prices and load/price duration curves of Iranian electricity market during March 2007-March 2008 are also analyzed in this paper. These results imply the existence of economic withholding. The main limiting factors of competition and significant implemented countermeasures for market power mitigation in Iran's electricity market are also mentioned.

Characteristics of the prices of operating reserves and regulation services in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Peng; Zareipour, Hamidreza; Rosehart, William D.

2011-01-01

In this paper, characteristics of the prices of reserves and regulation services in the Ontario, New York and ERCOT electricity markets are studied. More specifically, price variability, price jumps, long-range correlation, and non-linearity of the prices are analyzed using the available measures in the literature. For the Ontario electricity market, the prices of 10-min spinning, 10-min non-spinning, and 30-min operating reserves for the period May 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007 are analyzed. For the New York market, prices of the same reserves plus regulation service are studied for the period February 5, 2005 to December 31, 2008. For the ERCOT market, we analyze the prices of responsive reserve, regulation up and regulation down services, for the period January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2009. The studied characteristics of operating reserve and regulation prices are also compared with those of energy prices. The findings of this paper show that the studied reserve and regulation prices feature extreme volatility, more frequent jumps and spikes, different peak price occurrence time, and lower predictability, compared to the energy prices. - Research highlights: → We examine various statistical characteristics of reserve and regulation prices. → We compare characteristics of reserve and regulation and energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices feature different patterns from energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices are more dispersive and volatile than energy price.

Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

OpenAIRE

Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

2017-01-01

The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

Role of Non-Volatile Memories in Automotive and IoT Markets

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-01

Standard Manufacturing Supply Long Term Short to Medium Term Density Up to 16MB Up to 2MB IO Configuration Up to x128 Up to x32 Design for Test...Role of Non-Volatile Memories in Automotive and IoT Markets Vipin Tiwari Director, Business Development and Product Marketing SST – A Wholly Own...microcontrollers (MCU) and certainly one of the most challenging elements to master. This paper addresses the role of non-volatile memories for

Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

OpenAIRE

Dahiru A. Bala; Taro Takimoto

2017-01-01

This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs) using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH) models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009) on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs) are lower compared w...

Restructured electric power systems analysis of electricity markets with equilibrium models

CERN Document Server

2010-01-01

Electricity market deregulation is driving the power energy production from a monopolistic structure into a competitive market environment. The development of electricity markets has necessitated the need to analyze market behavior and power. Restructured Electric Power Systems reviews the latest developments in electricity market equilibrium models and discusses the application of such models in the practical analysis and assessment of electricity markets.

Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agya Atabani Adi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanachote Boonvorachote

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

Regime jumps in electricity prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

2003-01-01

textabstractMany countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe

Volatility Spillovers from the Chinese Stock Market to Economic Neighbours

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Amram (Ron)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and USA. China’s increasing integration into the global market may have important

Wholesale electricity markets in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rios, J. L.

2010-01-01

Electricity Wholesale Markets provide efficient operation of power stations, facilitate hedging instruments for generators and retailers and deliver price signals for new investments. Despite having a common regulatory framework at European level whose last aim is a single electricity market, Wholesale markets have been unevenly developed in each Member State. The evolution form a spot-based market towards a forward-based market needs a certain level of liquidity, transparency and regulatory stability. Interconnections are the key element to promote the integration of electricity markets. To facilitate this, European Regional Initiatives have pushed regulatory harmonization between countries and market coupling projects. (Author)

Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirti AREKAR

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Tian, Jiarong

2016-01-01

textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major r...

Study on electricity markets in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandra FLOREA

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we detail about the components of the wholesale electricity market in Romania: Market for Bilateral Contracts (Central Market with continuous double negotiation of bilateral electric energy contracts (CM - OTC, Centralized Market for bilateral electric energy contracts, Day-Ahead Market (DAM, Inter-Daily Market (IM, Balancing Market (BM, Centralized Market for universal service (CMUS. In addition, for each type of market we generated diagrams with the main business processes.

Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Lin Chang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Energy and agricultural commodities and markets have been examined extensively, albeit separately, for a number of years. In the energy literature, the returns, volatility and volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, among alternative energy commodities, such as oil, gasoline and ethanol across different markets, have been analysed using a variety of univariate and multivariate models, estimation techniques, data sets, and time frequencies. A similar comment applies to the separate theoretical and empirical analysis of a wide range of agricultural commodities and markets. Given the recent interest and emphasis in bio-fuels and green energy, especially bio-ethanol, which is derived from a range of agricultural products, it is not surprising that there is a topical and developing literature on the spillovers between energy and agricultural markets. Modelling and testing spillovers between the energy and agricultural markets has typically been based on estimating multivariate conditional volatility models, specifically the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC models. A serious technical deficiency is that the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimates (QMLE of a Full BEKK matrix, which is typically estimated in examining volatility spillover effects, has no asymptotic properties, except by assumption, so that no valid statistical test of volatility spillovers is possible. Some papers in the literature have used the DCC model to test for volatility spillovers. However, it is well known in the financial econometrics literature that the DCC model has no regularity conditions, and that the QMLE of the parameters of DCC has no asymptotic properties, so that there is no valid statistical testing of volatility spillovers. The purpose of the paper is to evaluate the theory and practice in testing for volatility spillovers

Value-at-Risk for South-East Asian Stock Markets: Stochastic Volatility vs. GARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Bui Quang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This study compares the performance of several methods to calculate the Value-at-Risk of the six main ASEAN stock markets. We use filtered historical simulations, GARCH models, and stochastic volatility models. The out-of-sample performance is analyzed by various backtesting procedures. We find that simpler models fail to produce sufficient Value-at-Risk forecasts, which appears to stem from several econometric properties of the return distributions. With stochastic volatility models, we obtain better Value-at-Risk forecasts compared to GARCH. The quality varies over forecasting horizons and across markets. This indicates that, despite a regional proximity and homogeneity of the markets, index volatilities are driven by different factors.

Modeling long-term dynamics of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsina, Fernando; Garces, Francisco; Haubrich, H.-J.

2006-01-01

In the last decade, many countries have restructured their electricity industries by introducing competition in their power generation sectors. Although some restructuring has been regarded as successful, the short experience accumulated with liberalized power markets does not allow making any founded assertion about their long-term behavior. Long-term prices and long-term supply reliability are now center of interest. This concerns firms considering investments in generation capacity and regulatory authorities interested in assuring the long-term supply adequacy and the stability of power markets. In order to gain significant insight into the long-term behavior of liberalized power markets, in this paper, a simulation model based on system dynamics is proposed and the underlying mathematical formulations extensively discussed. Unlike classical market models based on the assumption that market outcomes replicate the results of a centrally made optimization, the approach presented here focuses on replicating the system structure of power markets and the logic of relationships among system components in order to derive its dynamical response. The simulations suggest that there might be serious problems to adjust early enough the generation capacity necessary to maintain stable reserve margins, and consequently, stable long-term price levels. Because of feedback loops embedded in the structure of power markets and the existence of some time lags, the long-term market development might exhibit a quite volatile behavior. By varying some exogenous inputs, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to assess the influence of these factors on the long-run market dynamics

The Nordic financial electricity market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-11-15

NordREG is a cooperation of the Nordic energy regulators. The mission is to actively promote legal and institutional framework and conditions necessary for developing the Nordic and European electricity markets. The financial market is an important market for market participants to mitigate their risks. By providing tools for risk management, the financial market contributes to the efficient functioning of both wholesale and end-user markets. NordREG decided during 2009 to undertake a study on the Nordic financial electricity market. The aim of the report is to consider whether any improvements can be made to further increase the efficiency of the Nordic financial electricity market in order to secure an optimal price setting in the wholesale and the end-user markets

Market power in electricity markets: Beyond concentration measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borenstein, S.; Bushnell, J.; Knittel, C.R.

1999-01-01

The wave of electricity market restructuring both within the US and abroad has brought the issue of horizontal market power to the forefront of energy policy. Traditionally, estimation and prediction of market power has relied heavily on concentration measures. In this paper, the authors discuss the weaknesses of concentration measures as a viable measure of market power in the electricity industry, and they propose an alternative method based on market simulations that take advantage of existing plant level data. The authors discuss results from previous studies they have performed, and present new results that allow for the detection of threshold demand levels where market power is likely to be a problem. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of that recent divestitures in the California electricity market will have on estimated market power. They close with a discussion of the policy implications of the results

Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

Science.gov (United States)

Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

2010-04-01

The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

Electric vehicles in imperfect electricity markets: The case of Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schill, Wolf-Peter

2011-01-01

We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the impacts of a hypothetical fleet of plug-in electric vehicles on the imperfectly competitive German electricity market. Electric vehicles bring both additional demand and additional storage capacity to the market. We determine the effects on prices, welfare, and electricity generation for various cases with different players in charge of vehicle operations. Vehicle loading increases generator profits, but decreases consumer surplus in the power market. If excess vehicle batteries can be used for storage, welfare results are reversed: generating firms suffer from the price-smoothing effect of additional storage, whereas power consumers benefit despite increasing overall demand. Strategic players tend to under-utilize the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet, which may have negative welfare implications. In contrast, we find a market power-mitigating effect of electric vehicle recharging on oligopolistic generators. Overall, electric vehicles are unlikely to be a relevant source of market power in Germany in the foreseeable future. - Highlights: → We study the effect of electric vehicles on an imperfectly competitive electricity market. → We apply a game-theoretic model to the German market. → There is a market power-mitigating effect of vehicle loading on oligopolistic generating firms. → Consumers benefit from electric vehicles if excess battery capacity can be used for grid storage. → Electric vehicles are unlikely to be a source of market power in Germany in the near future.

Essays on restructured electricity markets

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Emma Leah

This dissertation focuses on the performance of restructured electricity markets in the United States. In chapter 1, I study bidder-specific offer caps ("BSOCs") which are used to mitigate market power in three wholesale electricity markets. The price of electricity is determined through multi-unit uniform price auctions and BSOCs impose an upper limit, which is increasing in marginal cost, on each generator's bid. I apply BSOCs in both the uniform and discriminatory price auctions and characterize the equilibria in a two firm model with stochastic demand. BSOCs unambiguously increase expected production efficiency in the uniform price auction and they can increase the expected profit of the generator with the lower cap. Chapter 2, coauthored with Ramteen Sioshansi, Ph.D., compares two types of uniform price auction formats used in wholesale electricity markets, centrally committed markets and self committed markets. In centrally committed markets, generators submit two-part bids consisting of a fixed startup cost and a variable (per MWh) energy cost, and the auctioneer ensures that no generator operates at a loss. Generators in self committed markets must incorporate their startup costs into their one part energy bids. We derive Nash equilibria for both the centrally and self committed electricity markets in a model with two symmetric generators with nonconvex costs and deterministic demand. Using a numerical example, we demonstrate that if the caps on the bid elements are chosen appropriately, the two market designs are equivalent in terms of generator revenues and settlement costs. Regulators and prominent academic experts believe that electric restructuring polices have stifled investment in new generation capacity. In chapter 3 I seek to determine whether these fears are supported by empirical evidence. I examine both total investment in megawatts and the number of new investments across regions that adopted different electric restructuring policies to

Electricity regulation and electricity market reforms in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngan, H.W.

2010-01-01

The electricity industry of China has been in a process of reforms since the 1980s. This paper gives a review on the three main stages of reforms in China so as to trace out key features of various reform measures including those for power investment financing, the separation between government and power enterprises, and the division between power generation firms and power grids. The findings suggest that further regulatory change in China's electricity market reform is necessary when integration of the electricity markets and increased competition are paving the way ahead for a market-oriented structure. Prospective electricity regulation in the form of a strong legal system and effective institutions that protect market competition and promote appropriate incentives for efficiency are suggested in the paper. (author)

The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Bent Jesper

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

Generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Ning

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a statistical and econometric model to analyze the generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market. The generator level bidding data show very strong persistence in generators' grouping choices over time. Using dynamic random effect ordered probit model, we find that persistence is characterized by positive state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence is more important than unobserved heterogeneity. The finding of true state dependence suggests a scope for economic policy intervention. If NYISO can implement an effective policy to switch generators from higher price groups to lower price groups, the effect is likely to be lasting. As a result, the market price can be lowered in the long-run. Generators' offered capacity is estimated by a two-stage sample selection model. The estimated results show that generators in higher-priced groups tend to withhold their capacity strategically to push up market prices. It further confirms the importance of an effective policy to turn generators into lower price groups in order to mitigate unexpected price spikes. The simulated market prices based on our estimated aggregate supply curve can replicate most volatility of actual DA market prices. Applying our models to different demand assumptions, we find that demand conditions can affect market prices significantly. It validates the importance of introducing demand side management during the restructure of electricity industry. (author)

An empirical analysis of freight rate and vessel price volatility transmission in global dry bulk shipping market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Dai

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Global dry bulk shipping market is an important element of global economy and trade. Since newbuilding and secondhand vessels are often traded as assets and the freight rate is the key determinant of vessel price, it is important for shipping market participants to understand the market dynamics and price transmission mechanism over time to make suitable strategic decisions. To address this issue, a multi-variate GARCH model was applied in this paper to explore the volatility spillover effects across the vessel markets (including newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets and freight market. Specifically, the BEKK parameterization of the multi-variate GARCH model (BEKK GARCH was proposed to capture the volatility transmission effect from the freight market, newbuilding and secondhand vessel markets in the global dry bulk shipping industry. Empirical results reveal that significant volatility transmission effects exist in each market sector, i.e. capesize, panamax, handymax and handysize. Besides, the market volatility transmission mechanism varies among different vessel types. Moreover, some bilateral effects are found in the dry bulk shipping market, showing that lagged variances could affect the current variance in a counterpart market, regardless of the volatility transmission. A simple ratio is proposed to guide investors optimizing their portfolio allocations. The findings in this paper could provide unique insights for investors to understand the market and hedge their portfolios well.

Stock markets volatility spillovers during financial crises: A DCC-MGARCH with skewed-t density approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dahiru A. Bala

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates stock returns volatility spillovers in emerging and developed markets (DMs using multivariate-GARCH (MGARCH models and their variants. In addition, we analyse the impacts of global financial crisis (2007–2009 on stock market volatility interactions and modify the BEKK-MGARCH-type models by including financial crisis dummies to assess their impact on volatilities and spillovers. Major findings reveal that correlations among emerging markets (EMs are lower compared with correlations among DMs and increase during financial crises. Furthermore, we detect evidence of volatility spillovers and observe that own-volatility spillovers are higher than cross-volatility spillovers for EMs suggesting that shocks have not been substantially transmitted among EMs compared to DMs. We also find significant asymmetric behaviour in DMs while weak evidence is detected for EMs. Finally, the DCC-with-skewed-t density model provided improved diagnostics compared to other models partly due to its taking into account fat tails and skewed features often present in financial returns.

VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE EXTRA VIRGIN OLIVE OIL MARKETS OF THE MEDITERRANEAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios Panagiotou

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the existence and magnitude of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Spain and Greece. These three Mediterranean countries are responsible for 95% of olive oil production within the European Union and they account for more than 50% of olive oil exports worldwide. In order to measure the degree of volatility transmission between these countries we estimate a vector error correction model along with the BEKK parameterization of a Multivariate Generalized Conditional Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH model. The empirical results reveal the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects suggesting this way the existence of volatility spillovers between the extra virgin olive oil markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. ARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Spain and Italy. GARCH effects are the biggest in magnitude for the market between Greece and Italy.

Bulgarian electricity market restructuring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganev, Peter

2009-01-01

The energy sector in Bulgaria has undergone major restructuring in recent years. It faces the dual challenges of achieving regulatory stability to attract private investors, and creating a functioning competition energy market. As of the EU Accession in 2007, Bulgaria has fully liberalized power and gas markets. The 2003 Energy Law establishes the energy sector legal framework and sets the basis for creation of a transparent and predictable regulatory environment where the key regulatory responsibilities are vested with the State Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (SEWRC). The energy sector experienced significant problems in the first half of 2007 due to lost production capacities and regulatory failures on the electricity market. Excess price regulations on the market of electricity supplies to household, coupled with insufficient liberalization of imports and exports, create unfavorable conditions for power producers and large electricity users. The energy regulator has tried to achieve several incompatible targets as of July 1, 2007 for maintaining low electricity prices for households in response to political pressure, low power generation prices amid rising input costs, and market opening in compliance with EU regulations. (author)

Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

2013-01-01

Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

2010-01-01

This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Hertel, Thomas W; Scherer, Martin; Verma, Monika

2012-07-01

Recent price spikes(1,2) have raised concern that climate change could increase food insecurity by reducing grain yields in the coming decades(3,4). However, commodity price volatility is also influenced by other factors(5,6), which may either exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change. Here we show that US corn price volatility exhibits higher sensitivity to near-term climate change than to energy policy influences or agriculture-energy market integration, and that the presence of a biofuels mandate enhances the sensitivity to climate change by more than 50%. The climate change impact is driven primarily by intensification of severe hot conditions in the primary corn-growing region of the US, which causes US corn price volatility to increase sharply in response to global warming projected over the next three decades. Closer integration of agriculture and energy markets moderates the effects of climate change, unless the biofuels mandate becomes binding, in which case corn price volatility is instead exacerbated. However, in spite of the substantial impact on US corn price volatility, we find relatively small impact on food prices. Our findings highlight the critical importance of interactions between energy policies, energy-agriculture linkages, and climate change.

Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

2009-01-01

Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

Stock Market Integration and Volatility Spillover:India and its Major Asian Counterparts

OpenAIRE

Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath; Mishra, Dr. R. K.

2008-01-01

Return and volatility spillover among Indian stock market with that of 12 other developed and emerging Asian countries over a period from November 1997 to April 2008 is studied. Daily opening and closing prices of all major equity indices from the sample countries are examined by applying the GARCH model [Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986)] to explore the possibility of stock market integration and volatility spillover among India and its major Asian counterparties. Apart from different degre...

Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

Lahmiri, Salim

In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

Redesign Electricity Market for the Next Generation Power System of Renewable Energy and Distributed Storage Technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob

2010-01-01

This paper proposes a stochastic time-series based method to simulate the volatility of intermittent renewable generation and distributed storage devices along timeline. The proposed method can calculate the optimal timeline for different electricity markets and power systems. In practice......, the proposed method is potentially useful for designing market rules and evaluating different design options. Following works is underway on application and simulation of proposed method using the realistic distribution system of Bornholm Island in Denmark....

The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

2017-09-01

Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

Stock Markets Volatility Spillovers during Financial Crises : A DCC-MGARCH with Skew-t Approach

OpenAIRE

Bala, Dahiru A.; Takimoto, Taro

2016-01-01

We investigate stock markets volatility spillovers in selected emerging and major developed markets using multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models [namely; DVECH, CCC-MGARCH, CCC-VARMA-(A)MGARCH, VAR-EGARCH, BEKK-(A)MGARCH, DCC-MGARCH (with Gaussian and t distributions) and DCC-with-skew-t density]. The paper analyses the impacts of recent global financial crisis (2007{2009) on stock market volatility and examines their dynamic interactions using several MGARCH model variants. Structural break dete...

Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hojin Lee

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

Intensity of Price and Volatility Spillover Effects in Asia-Pacific Basin Equity Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sazali Abidin

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the intensity of price and volatility spillover effects in five major stock markets within the Asia Pacific basin region with a particular emphasis in the spillover effects between Australia and China. VAR(5 model is used for measuring the return spillover while AR/VAR model with exogenous variables is employed for measuring the effects of same day returns on return spillover. .In modelling the volatility spillover, we employ AR/GARCH model which also incorporates the same day effects. Results of both return and volatility spillover provide evidence that there are significant spillover effects across different markets in the Asia-Pacific region and as well as between Australia and China. This study also provides support to the view that a market is most affected by other markets that opens/closes just before it. The main contribution of this paper is the confirmation of spillover effects between markets in the region, in particular, the interdependence between Australia and China which may have evolved only recently and thus have received relatively little research attention to date.

The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities

OpenAIRE

Paul D. McNelis

1993-01-01

This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...

Stock Market Volatility around National Elections

OpenAIRE

Bialkowski, Jedrzej; Gottschalk, Katrin; Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr

2006-01-01

This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the countryspecific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coalitio...

Interconnections and market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj

2012-01-01

Interconnections can be an effective way to increase competition and improve market integration in concentrated wholesale electricity markets with limited number of participants. This paper examines the potential for interconnections and increasing market integration in the Irish Single Electricity Market (SEM). We use a time-varying Kalman filter technique to assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other large, mature and interconnected wholesale electricity markets in Europe including Great Britain (GB). The results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17% indicating potential to improve market integration via increased interconnector capacity. The results indicate that liquidity of wholesale markets might be a crucial factor in the market integration process while our results remain inconclusive in determining whether increased trade of renewables can improve market integration. - Highlights: ► We assess the degree of market integration between SEM and other EU electricity markets. ► Our results indicate no market integration between SEM and other European markets except for Elspot and GB. ► We show that the current state of market integration between SEM and GB is just 17%.

What can price volatility tell us about market efficiency? Conditional heteroscedasticity in historical commodity price series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Földvári, P.; van Leeuwen, B.

2011-01-01

The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price

Price volatility, hedging and variable risk premium in the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad Jalali-Naini; Maryam Kazemi Manesh

2006-01-01

The crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Such characteristics imply that the oil market is a promising area for testing volatility models. Testing and predicting volatility using ARCH and GARCH models have grown in the literature. A useful application of the volatility models is in the formulation of hedging strategies. In this paper we compare the optimal hedge ratio for the crude oil using the classical minimum risk approach and use ARCH to incorporate the effect of heteroskedasticity in the residuals on the hedge ratio. In addition, we test for the existence of a variable risk premium in the crude oil market. We find that, assuming rational expectations, there is a non-zero risk premium. We test for the variability of the risk premia and find evidence in its support when we employed a multivariate GARCH model. (author)

Security of Supply in Australia's National Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, Sebastian

2005-06-01

This paper discusses the experience with an energy-only market in Australia, focusing on investment and price outcomes since market commencement. Looking back at the changes in the market since it commenced in 1998, it is fair to say that the energy-only market design has been a success so far. Demand has increased steadily, but this has been matched with new investment in generation and networks. The availability and efficiency of existing plant has also increased substantially. As a result of these gains, prices have come down and are less volatile, and the reliability and security of the market has been consolidated. Compared with 1989-90, the industry delivered more electricity (an increase of 45 per cent), to more customers (an increase of 26 per cent), and with less than half the number of employees. Industrial and residential energy users have enjoyed decreased prices, thanks to a combination of increased generation and network investment, and greater competition. Despite these successes, there is scope for further reform of the NEM to aid further improvements in the market's performance. We have seen how successful the energy-only market has been in signalling new investment in peaking generation, but there is still a question as to the effectiveness of the market in signalling baseload investment. In any case, future challenges will involve ensuring that market arrangements are conducive to new investment. Indeed, following recent reviews of the Australian energy market by Australian statutory bodies, there is a consensus view that the further reform is required to improve investment signals. The 2002 Review of Australian Energy Markets recommended structural reform of the New South Wales electricity industry and the removal of ETEF. In February this year, the Productivity Commission recommended disaggregation of the generation sector in New South Wales, and took the further step of recommending that the New South Wales government should consider

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. quarter 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. quarter 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter; The gas market; The retail gas market: The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

Electricity market price spike analysis by a hybrid data model and feature selection technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2010-01-01

In a competitive electricity market, energy price forecasting is an important activity for both suppliers and consumers. For this reason, many techniques have been proposed to predict electricity market prices in the recent years. However, electricity price is a complex volatile signal owning many spikes. Most of electricity price forecast techniques focus on the normal price prediction, while price spike forecast is a different and more complex prediction process. Price spike forecasting has two main aspects: prediction of price spike occurrence and value. In this paper, a novel technique for price spike occurrence prediction is presented composed of a new hybrid data model, a novel feature selection technique and an efficient forecast engine. The hybrid data model includes both wavelet and time domain variables as well as calendar indicators, comprising a large candidate input set. The set is refined by the proposed feature selection technique evaluating both relevancy and redundancy of the candidate inputs. The forecast engine is a probabilistic neural network, which are fed by the selected candidate inputs of the feature selection technique and predict price spike occurrence. The efficiency of the whole proposed method for price spike occurrence forecasting is evaluated by means of real data from the Queensland and PJM electricity markets. (author)

Market research for electric utilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shippee, G.

1999-01-01

Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to

Stock Price Informativeness and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

OpenAIRE

Karen Jingrong Lin; Khondkar Karim; Clairmont Carter

2014-01-01

This study attempts to address two research questions on the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness. First, whether idiosyncratic return volatility is a valid proxy for stock price informativeness in emerging markets, and if it is, whether there exists a monotonic relationship between the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness throughout the whole sample. We find that the idiosyncratic return volatility reflects the stock price informativeness...

Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bubák, V.; Kočenda, Evžen; Žikeš, F.

2011-01-01

Roč. 35, č. 11 (2011), s. 2829-2841 ISSN 0378-4266 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP403/11/0020; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange markets * volatility * spillovers Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.600, year: 2011

Market research for electric utilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shippee, G.

1999-12-01

Marketing research is increasing in importance as utilities become more marketing oriented. Marketing research managers need to maintain autonomy from the marketing director or ad agency and make sure their work is relevant to the utility's operation. This article will outline a model marketing research program for an electric utility. While a utility may not conduct each and every type of research described, the programs presented offer a smorgasbord of activities which successful electric utility marketers often use or have access to.

Effects of Daylight Saving Time changes on stock market volatility: a reply.

Science.gov (United States)

Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet

2011-12-01

There is a rich array of evidence that suggests that changes in sleeping patterns affect an individual's decision-making processes. A nationwide sleeping-pattern change happens twice a year when the Daylight Saving Time (DST) change occurs. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi argued in 2000 that a DST change lowers stock market returns. This study presents evidence that DST changes affect the relationship between stock market return and volatility. Empirical evidence suggests that the positive relationship between return and volatility becomes negative on the Mondays following DST changes.

Stochastic model of financial markets reproducing scaling and memory in volatility return intervals

Science.gov (United States)

Gontis, V.; Havlin, S.; Kononovicius, A.; Podobnik, B.; Stanley, H. E.

2016-11-01

We investigate the volatility return intervals in the NYSE and FOREX markets. We explain previous empirical findings using a model based on the interacting agent hypothesis instead of the widely-used efficient market hypothesis. We derive macroscopic equations based on the microscopic herding interactions of agents and find that they are able to reproduce various stylized facts of different markets and different assets with the same set of model parameters. We show that the power-law properties and the scaling of return intervals and other financial variables have a similar origin and could be a result of a general class of non-linear stochastic differential equations derived from a master equation of an agent system that is coupled by herding interactions. Specifically, we find that this approach enables us to recover the volatility return interval statistics as well as volatility probability and spectral densities for the NYSE and FOREX markets, for different assets, and for different time-scales. We find also that the historical S&P500 monthly series exhibits the same volatility return interval properties recovered by our proposed model. Our statistical results suggest that human herding is so strong that it persists even when other evolving fluctuations perturbate the financial system.

Outlook for electricity markets 2005-2006 : an energy market assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-06-01

The National Energy Board monitors the supply of electricity as well as its demand in both domestic and export markets. This document was produced in response to a survey with power generation, transmission and distribution companies, marketers, end-users, environmental groups and government agencies who demonstrated the need for more short-and medium-term energy market assessments to supplement the Board's longer term energy analysis. It on the short-term (2005-2006) issues that can have a long-term effect on the electricity sector. The document presents an analysis of Canadian electricity markets with particular focus on the main drivers affecting current trends in generation, demand, prices, infrastructure additions, and inter-regional and international trade. Current restructuring activities in Canada's electricity industry were also described along with the close relationship between the electricity sectors in Canada and the United States which stems from the integrated nature of the North American power grid. A regional market assessment and a summary was provided for each of Canada's provinces and territories with reference to market structure and current market developments. It was revealed that Canada's electricity markets have developed along provincial or regional boundaries. Utilities have tried to provide adequate and reliable electricity supply, environmental sustainability and acceptable electricity prices. It was concluded that supply is adequate in all regions in the short-term, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. Alternative and renewable resource and demand management are becoming more important in addressing air quality issues and supply adequacy. Since uncertainty may delay investment and development of new infrastructure, utilities may be forced to increase electricity prices. It was suggested that interprovincial energy transfers should be further explored. Five recommendations were presented to address the key

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on June 30, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

2008-01-01

This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

2001-01-01

textabstractElectricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 1. 2007 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at April 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). It completes the information already published by CRE: - practical information for eligible customers: consumer guide, list of suppliers, - communications regarding markets running; CRE's annual activity report. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2006); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Traded volumes on the French wholesale electricity market and comparison with European markets, Prices on the French wholesale electricity market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the 4. 2006 quarter); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The eligible customer segments and their respective weights, Status at January 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

Loss aversion and price volatility as determinants of attitude towards and preference for variable price in the Swedish electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juliusson, E. Asgeir; Gamble, Amelie; Gaerling, Tommy

2007-01-01

The results of a survey of a random sample of 488 Swedish residents showed that a positive attitude towards and preference for a variable price agreement with the incumbent electricity supplier was negatively affected by loss aversion, and a positive attitude also negatively affected by beliefs about price volatility. Although correlated with attitude and preference, age, education, and current choice of a variable price agreement had no independent effects. Income and current electricity costs had no effects. (author)

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity market opening and electricity generation system's expansion in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosnjek, Z.; Vidmar, M.; Bregar, Z.

2000-01-01

Slovenia is rapidly adopting the European Union (EU) legislation to make itself ready to be admitted the fifteen EU member countries. In the area of energy or electricity supply industry, Slovenia has consequently enforced the Energy law, which in its essence follows the idea of the Directive 96/92/EC. Globally, the Directive defines common rules of the internal electricity market within EU. Any EU member country is responsible for assuring a competitive electricity market and implementing corresponding instruments as foreseen by the Directive. The share of the national market opening is calculated on the basis of eligible customers' consumption versus the overall consumption in a particular member country. Also, the Directive defines the rate of the electricity market opening. It is interesting to note that the EU member countries have been opening their national electricity markets at a greater speed than specified by the Directive. The overall Slovenian Electricity Supply Industry shall have to adapt itself to new imperatives, whereby the greatest changes will by all means take place in the area of electricity generation. As the reaction of eligible domestic market customers is quite unpredictable, the direct electricity import from foreign countries can only be estimated on a variant basis. EU countries that have deregulated their electricity market have been, step by step, gaining valuable experiences. The majority of them show a considerable pressure on having prices of the EPS generation sector reduced. A similar development can by all means be expected in Slovenia, too. it is expected that the major burden of the electricity market liberalisation and electric power interconnecting within EU will be carried by the EPS generation sector. The analyses of developed variants show that the burden, imposed by the transition onto the market economy, will be predominantly carried by the coal fired electricity supply industry. Further development of electricity

Electricity and gas market observatory. 3. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1 of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. The present observatory is including residential customer's statistics. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on September 30, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 3. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Grid Integration of Electric Vehicles in Open Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

congestion management scenario within electric distribution networks •optimal EV charging management with the fleet operator concept and smart charging management •EV battery technology, modelling and tests •the use of EVs for balancing power fluctuations from renewable energy sources, looking at power......Presenting the policy drivers, benefits and challenges for grid integration of electric vehicles (EVs) in the open electricity market environment, this book provides a comprehensive overview of existing electricity markets and demonstrates how EVs are integrated into these different markets...... of the technologies for EV integration, this volume is informative for research professors and graduate students in power systems; it will also appeal to EV manufacturers, regulators, EV market professionals, energy providers and traders, mobility providers, EV charging station companies, and policy makers....

Electricity market players subgroup report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borison, A.

1990-03-01

The purpose of this study is to examine competition in the electric power industry from an ''industrial organization'' point of view. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Chapter 2 describes the ''industrial organization'' approach used to analyze the electric power market. Industrial organization emphasizes specific market performance criteria, and the impact of market structure and behavior on performance. Chapter 3 identifies the participants in the electric power market, grouped primarily into regulated producers, unregulated producers, and consumers. Chapter 4 describes the varieties of electric power competition, organized along two dimensions: producer competition and consumer competition. Chapters 5 and 6 identify the issues raised by competition along the two dimensions. These issues include efficiency, equity, quality, and stability. Chapters 7 through 9 describe market structure, behavior and performance in three competitive scenarios: minimum competition, maximum competition, and moderate competition. Market structure, behavior and performance are discussed, and the issues raised in Chapters 5 and 6 are discussed in detail. Chapter 10 provides conclusions about ''winners and losers'' and identifies issues that require further study

Volatility Discovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Scherrer, Cristina; Papailias, Fotis

The price discovery literature investigates how homogenous securities traded on different markets incorporate information into prices. We take this literature one step further and investigate how these markets contribute to stochastic volatility (volatility discovery). We formally show...... that the realized measures from homogenous securities share a fractional stochastic trend, which is a combination of the price and volatility discovery measures. Furthermore, we show that volatility discovery is associated with the way that market participants process information arrival (market sensitivity......). Finally, we compute volatility discovery for 30 actively traded stocks in the U.S. and report that Nyse and Arca dominate Nasdaq....

Probabilistic numerical methods for high-dimensional stochastic control and valuation problems on electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langrene, Nicolas

2014-01-01

This thesis deals with the numerical solution of general stochastic control problems, with notable applications for electricity markets. We first propose a structural model for the price of electricity, allowing for price spikes well above the marginal fuel price under strained market conditions. This model allows to price and partially hedge electricity derivatives, using fuel forwards as hedging instruments. Then, we propose an algorithm, which combines Monte-Carlo simulations with local basis regressions, to solve general optimal switching problems. A comprehensive rate of convergence of the method is provided. Moreover, we manage to make the algorithm parsimonious in memory (and hence suitable for high dimensional problems) by generalizing to this framework a memory reduction method that avoids the storage of the sample paths. We illustrate this on the problem of investments in new power plants (our structural power price model allowing the new plants to impact the price of electricity). Finally, we study more general stochastic control problems (the control can be continuous and impact the drift and volatility of the state process), the solutions of which belong to the class of fully nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, and can be handled via constrained Backward Stochastic Differential Equations, for which we develop a backward algorithm based on control randomization and parametric optimizations. A rate of convergence between the constraPned BSDE and its discrete version is provided, as well as an estimate of the optimal control. This algorithm is then applied to the problem of super replication of options under uncertain volatilities (and correlations). (author)

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. quarter 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

Since July 1, 2004, all electricity and gas consumers can be eligible according to their consumption site, as long as all or part of the electricity or gas consumed is designed for non-residential use. The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web-site (www.cre.fr). It presents: The electricity market; The retail electricity market: Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007; The wholesale electricity market: Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking facts of the second quarter 2007; The gas market; The retail gas market: The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1. 2007; The wholesale gas market: Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe,The wholesale market in France. Some glossaries are attached to the document: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary; Specific electricity market observatory glossary; Specific gas market observatory glossary.

Electricity and gas market observatory. 1. Quarter 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at March 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2008, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2008); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the first quarter 2008); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory. 4. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status at December 31, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on December 31. 2007, Dynamic analysis: 4. Quarter 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Striking fact of the fourth quarter 2007); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Electricity and gas market observatory 1. Quarter 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). Since the 1. of July 2007, all customers can choose their gas and electricity suppliers. Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31, 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market). B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, Customer segments and their respective weight, Status on March 31. 2009, Dynamic analysis: 1. Quarter 2009), The wholesale gas market (Main steps in the French Wholesale gas market, Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Concentration of the French gas market) C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

A research of the development of electricity and natural gas markets and the experiences gained from implementation of the electricity and natural gas market laws

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, P.E.; Pakkanen, M.; Naervae, T.; Hernesniemi, L.; Partanen, J.; Viljainen, S.; Honkapuro, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Jylhae, R.

2007-01-01

supply' to smaller customers. Generally and maybe surprisingly unbundling has tended to clearly increase electricity retail prices and their volatility, though it is too early to separately estimate the impact of the law changes on unbundling. Limitation of obligation to supply has not significantly influenced electricity prices. Public offer price information is believed to make different electricity suppliers' prices more similar to each other and possibly also higher. In the gas market, the recent developments have resulted mainly from other factors besides the legislative changes that came into force in the beginning of 2005. The legislative changes had perhaps the strongest impact on the supervision of the reasonableness of gas distribution pricing. However, it would be premature to evaluate the consequences of the new regulatory system at this stage because the new system has been in place only since the beginning of the year 2006. The recently adopted regulation principles in the gas distribution sector are largely determined based on the experiences obtained within the electricity distribution sector. In future, however, an approach that takes into account the structure and special characteristics of the Finnish gas markets is required when developing gas sector regulation. (orig.)

Design choices for electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Vries, Laurens

2007-07-01

Ten years after the first European Electricity Directive, the goal of creating a single European electricity market has not been reached, despite concerted efforts by the EU and certain member states to continue with the reforms. The policy of subsidiarity for many aspects of market design has as a consequence that member countries are implementing a variety of different market designs and are implementing the reforms at varying speeds. The Florence regulatory process, which was intended to provide a bottom-up approach for coordination and harmonization, has effectively stalled and been replaced by a series of 'mini fora' in which smaller groups of countries work on integrating their markets. At the same time, the European electricity supply industry is facing some significant challenges. This paper investigates the different choices that can be made in the design of electricity markets, how they relate to each other and how they relate to the policy goals. (auth)

Investigation of the Greek Stock Exchange volatility and the impact of foreign markets from 2007 to 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolaos Sariannidis

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this paper - The current paper aims to analyze the impact of the debt crisis on the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility. The research also examines the impact of powerful foreign capital markets on the Greek Stock Exchange market, the seasonality returns (Day-of-the-Week effect and the volatility structure. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis of data is made by employing the GARCH models, and more specifically the GJR-GARCH model. Findings - The results of the GJR-GARCH model demonstrate that the debt crisis and, therefore, its consequences increase the FTSE / ASE 20 index volatility and the Greek market does not react asymmetrically to negative information. In addition, the results indicate the importance of foreign markets in shaping the first moment of the FTSE / ASE 20 index and the presence of the Reverse Day of the Week effect. Research limitations/implications - The implication of volatility measurement is vital in determining the cost for investment, security pricing markets, hedging and other trading strategies, and also for regulatory policies conducted within financial markets. Originality/value - The paper may prove helpful to regulatory authorities, investors and financial analysts to understand the structure and behavior of volatility in a small stock exchange market under crisis.

A day-ahead market for electricity in Alberta : is there a case to be made?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fronimos, P.

2006-01-01

Following the success of the introduction of competition in several heavily regulated industries in the 1980s and 1990s, traditional utilities were broken up and markets were introduced for their respective services. Some of these markets evolved into complex structures with multiple sub-markets for installed capacity, energy, transmission and for all types of reserves. Electricity submarkets now operate in a similar manner in different timeframes comprising two settlement systems: the Day Ahead (DA) market, operating a day ahead of the actual generation and consumption of electricity and one that operates in real time, the Real-Time (RT) or Balancing market. This paper explored the case for a binding DA market for electricity in Alberta, by looking at the challenges facing the marketplace and examining how using a DA market would affect them. This paper hypothesized that a correctly designed and implemented, financially binding DA market would enhance the fidelity of the price signal in Alberta by providing an information rich environment for participants and the system operator. The paper defined and discussed both types of settlement systems. It then discussed the DA market in Alberta in terms of risk management, reliability, price fidelity and demand response. It was noted that some of the benefits of using a DA market could also be achieved by improvements to the existing market. Alberta faces several challenges, such as merit order instability and price volatility which are likely due to market design and operations rather than the inherent inability of a power exchange to address them. 31 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

Volatility forecasting and value-at-risk estimation in emerging markets: the case of the stock market index portfolio in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lumengo Bonga-Bonga

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Accurate modelling of volatility is important as it relates to the forecasting of Value-at-Risk (VaR. The RiskMetrics model to forecast volatility is the benchmark in the financial sector. In an important regulatory innovation, the Basel Committee has proposed the use of an internal method for modelling VaR instead of the strict use of the benchmark model. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of RiskMetrics in comparison to other models of volatility forecasting, such as some family classes of the Generalised Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models, in forecasting the VaR in emerging markets. This paper makes use of the stock market index portfolio, the All-Share Index, as a case study to evaluate the market risk in emerging markets. The paper underlines the importance of asymmetric behaviour for VaR forecasting in emerging markets’ economies.

Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baumöhl, E.; Kočenda, Evžen; Lyócsa, S.; Výrost, T.

2018-01-01

Roč. 490, č. 1 (2018), s. 1555-1574 ISSN 0378-4371 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Volatility spillovers * Shock transmission * Stock markets * Granger causality network * Financial crisis * Spatial regression Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.243, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2018/E/kocenda-0487923.pdf

Danish Energy Agency. Trial of electric cars - third stage. Possibilities and barriers for use of electric cars and symbiosis between electric cars, volatile wind energy and Smart Grid; Energistyrelsen. Forsoegsordning med el-biler - tredje runde. Muligheder og barrierer for anvendelse af el-biler og symbiose mellem el-biler, volatil vindenergi og Smart Grid

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buchwaldt-Nissen, S.; Thorsager Jakobsen, K.

2011-06-15

The aim of the study is to analyse the possibilities and barriers of using electric vehicles (EVs) by comparing Danish and other countries' EV prices and their components and by analysing the price development of the charging stations. Trends of business models for EVs are analysed and their life-time cost is compared. The symbiosis between EVs, volatile wind power and smart grid and the impact on the energy system is investigated. This is done by analysing driving and charging data from the trial started by the Danish Energy Agency, in order to identify the users' charging pattern. The charging pattern is coupled to data from the electric power market and EV market data to identify the value of intelligent EV fleet control and the integration potential of EVs in relation to usage of surplus volatile wind power in 2020. The results of the analyses show that if the EVs are not charged in an intelligent way, there is a risk that they have a negative effect on the power distribution grid at the time of day where the electricity consumption is the highest. Unintelligent charging means that the EVs start charging immediately when connected to the charger. Intelligent charging means Smart Grid, where the vehicles are charged at times of the day when the power demand is low and when power is produced by e.g. wind power plants. The report also concludes that, although EVs are exempt from levies in Denmark, EVs are still expensive compared to petrol and diesel cars and EVs in other countries. This is a barrier against a market penetration in Denmark. (LN)

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Brown

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market.There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure would not attract sufficient investment from conventional generation (e.g., natural gas due to the increased penetration of zero marginal cost renewable generation. As a result, the Alberta government has chosen to transition to a capacity market. For consumers, a capacity market aims to ensure there is sufficient investment in new generation capacity to “keep the lights on” and reduce price swings in the wholesale market. The capacity market will also help the province meet its goals for attracting investors and transitioning away from its dependence on coal-fired electricity generation.However, a switchover is not as simple as it sounds. In an energy-only market, firms are paid solely based on the provision of electricity in hourly wholesale markets. In capacity markets, electricity-generating firms are also paid for providing generation capacity, reflecting the potential to provide electricity at some point in the future. While capacity markets can help ensure there is a reliable supply of electricity, there are several challenges in the implementation of capacity markets. This paper discusses the motivation for the adoption of capacity markets, highlights challenges regulators face when implementing this market design in the context of Alberta, and summarizes the key trade-offs associated with energy-only versus capacity market designs.Relative to an energy-only market, a capacity market is more complex and requires that regulators specify numerous

The European electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

The creation of a single European market also will have its effects on the power and electricity sector. Expectations tied to this abandonment of borders on the electricity market are different: some hope for a reduction of energy costs, others fear safeguarded supplies to be at risk. It cannot be fully judged at present what the situation will be on a strongly integrated, European power and electricity market, and the brochure in hand is intended to present a first survey of the situation from the perspective of the power industry and energy policy, concentrating on main aspects. The survey is compiled in the form of reprints of journal articles written on this topic by a number of well-known German experts in the field. (orig./HP) [de

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

OpenAIRE

David Brown

2018-01-01

Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market.There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure wo...

Power exchange game in the electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyykko, S.; Partanen, J.; Viljainen, S.; Lassila, J.; Honkapuro, S.; Tahvanainen, K.

2006-01-01

Since it is not economically reasonable to build parallel electricity networks, in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark, electricity distribution is protected by monopoly. However, electricity production and selling have been opened up to competition by connecting the transmission networks of these countries together, and it is possible to produce electricity where it is cheapest. A common electricity power market, called Nord Pool, has been created where electricity can be bought, sold or used as an exchange product. In order to help students understand the operation of electricity markets and the use of different electricity exchange products, the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University developed a scheme in which the theory can be used in practice. In the scheme, students are given the responsibility to manage the electricity markets of power companies in order analyze, plan and make decisions, which are skills required on the open power markets. The paper provided an introduction to the electricity markets in Nordic countries and discussed Nord Pool and its products. Information about education at the Department of Electrical Engineering at Lappeenranta University of Technology was also presented. The paper also provided details of the power exchange scheme on the electricity markets. 6 refs., 17 figs

The green electricity market model. Proposal for an optional, cost-neutral direct marketing model for supplying electricity customers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinemann, Ronald

2014-01-01

One of the main goals of the Renewable Energy Law (EEG) is the market integration of renewable energy resources. For this purpose it has introduced compulsory direct marketing on the basis of a moving market premium. At the same time the green electricity privilege, a regulation which made it possible for customers to be supplied with electricity from EEG plants, has been abolished without substitution with effect from 1 August 2014. This means that, aside from other direct marketing channels, which will not be economically viable save for in a few exceptional cases, it will no longer be possible in future to sell electricity from EEG plants to electricity customers under the designation ''electricity from renewable energy''. The reason for this is that electricity sold under the market premium model can no longer justifiably be said to originate from renewable energy. As a consequence, almost all green electricity products sold in Germany carry a foreign green electricity certificate.

Does wind energy mitigate market power in deregulated electricity markets?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Moshe, Ori; Rubin, Ofir D.

2015-01-01

A rich body of literature suggests that there is an inverse relationship between wind power penetration rate into the electricity market and electricity prices, but it is unclear whether these observations can be generalized. Therefore, in this paper we seek to analytically characterize market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. For this purpose, we expand a recently developed theoretical framework to facilitate flexibility in modeling the structure of the electric industry with respect to the degree of market concentration and diversification in the ownership of wind power capacity. The analytical results and their attendant numerical illustrations indicate that the introduction of wind energy into the market does not always depress electricity prices. Such a drop in electricity prices is likely to occur when the number of firms is large enough or the ownership of wind energy is sufficiently diversified, or most often a combination of the two. Importantly, our study defines the circumstances in which the question of which type of firm invests in wind power capacity is crucial for market prices. - Highlights: • Studies show that electricity prices decrease with increased wind power capacity. • We investigate market conditions that give rise to this inverse relationship. • Average prices for wind energy are systematically lower than average market prices. • Conventional generation firms may increase market power by investing in wind farms. • Energy policy should seek to diversify the ownership of wind power capacity

Measuring market performance in restructured electricity markets: An empirical analysis of the PJM energy market

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Russell Jay

2002-09-01

Today the electric industry in the U.S. is transitioning to competitive markets for wholesale electricity. Independent system operators (ISOs) now manage broad regional markets for electrical energy in several areas of the U.S. A recent rulemaking by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) encourages the development of regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and restructured competitive wholesale electricity markets nationwide. To date, the transition to competitive wholesale markets has not been easy. The increased reliance on market forces coupled with unusually high electricity demand for some periods have created conditions amenable to market power abuse in many regions throughout the U.S. In the summer of 1999, hot and humid summer conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia pushed peak demand in the PJM Interconnection to record levels. These demand conditions coincided with the introduction of market-based pricing in the wholesale electricity market. Prices for electricity increased on average by 55 percent, and reached the $1,000/MWh range. This study examines the extent to which generator market power raised prices above competitive levels in the PJM Interconnection during the summer of 1999. It simulates hourly market-clearing prices assuming competitive market behavior and compares these prices with observed market prices in computing price markups over the April 1-August 31, 1999 period. The results of the simulation analysis are supported with an examination of actual generator bid data of incumbent generators. Price markups averaged 14.7 percent above expected marginal cost over the 5-month period for all non-transmission-constrained hours. The evidence presented suggests that the June and July monthly markups were strongly influenced by generator market power as price inelastic peak demand approached the electricity generation capacity constraint of the market. While this analysis of the

Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, Pun Lee

2004-01-01

In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases. (author)

Hong Kong's electricity market beyond 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lam, P.-L.

2004-01-01

In Hong Kong, electricity is supplied by two private utilities: Hongkong Electric and CLP Power (CLP). Both are regulated under the Scheme of Control (SOC). The SOC is a formal, long-term regulatory contract of 15 years, signed between a private firm and the Hong Kong Government. Under the SOC, the two electric utilities are subject to both rate-of-return control and price control. The current scheme will expire by 2008. In this paper, we propose a gradual and cautious approach to the introduction of market reform into the electricity industry in Hong Kong. For regulated markets, the government should consider replacing the SOC with performance-based regulation for wire businesses and the non-contestable market. For competitive markets, the government should consider introducing competitive tendering for new sources in the generation market and liberalising the supply market in phases

An Economic Evalution of Demand-side Energy Storage Systems by using a Multi-agent based Electricity Market

Science.gov (United States)

Furusawa, Ken; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

Opened wholesale electric power market in April 2005, deregulation of electric power industry in Japan has faced a new competitive environment. In the new environment, Independent Power Producer (: IPP), Power Producer and Supplier (: PPS), Load Service Entity (: LSE) and electric utility can trade electric energy through both bilateral contracts and single-price auction at the electricity market. In general, the market clearing price (: MCP) is largely changed by amount of total load demand in the market. The influence may cause price spike, and consequently the volatility of MCP will make LSEs and their customers to face a risk of revenue and cost. DSM is attracted as a means of load leveling, and has effect on decreasing MCP at peak load period. Introducing Energy Storage systems (: ES) is one of DSM in order to change demand profile at customer-side. In case that customers decrease their own demand at jumped MCP, a bidding strategy of generating companies may be changed their strategy. As a result, MCP is changed through such complex mechanism. In this paper the authors evaluate MCP by multi-agent. It is considered that customer-side ES has an effect on MCP fluctuation. Through numerical examples, this paper evaluates the influence on MCP by controlling customer-side ES corresponding to variation of MCP.

Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Escalante

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

Forward Volatility Contract Pricing in the Brazilian Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandro Magalhães Manteiga

2004-06-01

Full Text Available In this work we consider the pricing of a special class of volatility derivatives, the so-called variance swaps. The fair value of a variance swap is equal to the expected value of the realized variance of the underlying of the swap during the lifetime of the contract. It is shown how this expected value can be computed by means of an exotic option with logarithmic pay-off. We show how to statically replicate this pay-off in terms of a basket of synthetic vanilla call and put options. We apply this construction to the TNLP4 ticker of BOVESPA and synthetize a basket with pure exposure to volatility using actual market prices.

Integrating gas and electric markets and regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whitmore, C.S.

1998-01-01

The issues determining what energy companies must do to compete in an increasingly competitive energy market and what regulators must do to ensure fairness in competition were discussed. The similarities of gas and electric markets, and the factors driving their integration were highlighted. The importance of communications and customer service in the energy market and the nature of market power in the gas and electric industries was described. Three reasons were given why gas/electric mergers will be beneficial: (1) operating efficiency, (2) applying gas experience to electric markets, and (3) opportunity to exercise market power. Potential regulatory problems were also reviewed

Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

2010-01-01

textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Singh Amanjot

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyritsis, Evangelos; Andersson, Jonas; Serletis, Apostolos

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in Germany. We use daily data from 2010 to 2015, a period with profound modifications in the German electricity market, the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources, as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy. In the context of a GARCH-in-Mean model, we show that both solar and wind power Granger cause electricity prices, that solar power generation reduces the volatility of electricity prices by scaling down the use of peak-load power plants, and that wind power generation increases the volatility of electricity prices by challenging electricity market flexibility. - Highlights: • We model the impact of solar and wind power generation on day-ahead electricity prices. • We discuss the different nature of renewables in relation to market design. • We explore the impact of renewables on the distributional properties of electricity prices. • Solar and wind reduce electricity prices but affect price volatility in the opposite way. • Solar decreases the probability of electricity price spikes, while wind increases it.

Electricity and gas market observatory. 2. Quarter 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

The purpose of the observatory is to provide the general public with indicators for monitoring market deregulation. It both covers the wholesale and retail electricity and gas markets in Metropolitan France. This observatory is updated every three months and data are available on CRE web site (www.cre.fr). The present observatory is dedicated only to eligible customers before 1 July 2007, i.e. non-residential customers. Statistics related to residential customers will be published in the next observatory (1 December 2007). Content: A - The electricity market: The retail electricity market (Introduction, Non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007, Dynamic analysis: 2. Quarter 2007); The wholesale electricity market (Introduction, Wholesale market activity in France, Wholesale market activity in France, Prices on the French wholesale market and European comparison, Import and export volumes, Concentration of the French electricity market, Striking fact of the second quarter 2007); B - The gas market: The retail gas market (Introduction, The non-residential customer segments and their respective weights, Status at July 1, 2007); The wholesale gas market (Gas pricing and gas markets in Europe, The wholesale market in France); C - Appendices: Electricity and gas market observatories combined glossary, Specific electricity market observatory glossary, Specific gas market observatory glossary

Optimal Charging of Electric Vehicles with Trading on the Intraday Electricity Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilham Naharudinsyah

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Trading on the energy market is a possible way to reduce the electricity costs of charging electric vehicles at public charging stations. In many European countries, it is possible to trade electricity until shortly before the period of delivery on so called intraday electricity markets. In the present work, the potential for reducing the electricity costs by trading on the intraday market is investigated using the example of the German market. Based on simulations, the authors reveal that by optimizing the charging schedule together with the trading on the intraday electricity market, the costs can be reduced by around 8% compared to purchasing all the required energy from the energy supplier. By allowing the charging station operator to resell the energy to the intraday electricity market, an additional cost reduction of around 1% can be achieved. Besides the potential cost savings, the impacts of the trading unit and of the lead time of the intraday electricity market on the costs are investigated. The authors reveal that the achievable electricity costs can be strongly affected by the lead time, while the trading unit has only a minor effect on the costs.

The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

OpenAIRE

Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

2014-01-01

This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

The economics of electricity markets

CERN Document Server

Biggar, Darryl R

2014-01-01

With the transition to liberalized electricity markets in many countries, the shift to more environmentally sustainable forms of power generation and increasing penetration of electric vehicles and smart appliances, a fundamental understanding of the economic principles underpinning the electricity industry is vital. Using clarity and precision, the authors successfully explain economic theory of all liberalized electricity market types from a cross-disciplinary engineering and policy perspective. No prior engineering knowledge or economics expertise is assumed in introducing key ideas such as nodal pricing, optimal dispatch and efficient pricing or in extending those models to areas including investment, risk management and the handling of contingencies. Key features: Comprehensively covers the principles of all liberalized electricity market types, including the US, Europe, New Zealand and Australia. Provides up to date coverage of research and policy iss es, including design of financial transmission rig...

Strategy of investment in electricity sources--Market value of a power plant and the electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

Bartnik, R.; Hnydiuk-Stefan, A.; Buryn, Z.

2017-11-01

This paper reports the results of the investment strategy analysis in different electricity sources. New methodology and theory of calculating the market value of the power plant and value of the electricity market supplied by it are presented. The financial gain forms the most important criteria in the assessment of an investment by an investor. An investment strategy has to involve a careful analysis of each considered project in order that the right decision and selection will be made while various components of the projects will be considered. The latter primarily includes the aspects of risk and uncertainty. Profitability of an investment in the electricity sources (as well as others) is offered by the measures applicable for the assessment of the economic effectiveness of an investment based on calculations e.g. power plant market value and the value of the electricity that is supplied by a power plant. The values of such measures decide on an investment strategy in the energy sources. This paper contains analysis of exemplary calculations results of power plant market value and the electricity market value supplied by it.

The restructuring of the Ontario electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doucet, J.A.

1999-01-01

A summary of the current status of the deregulation of the electricity market in Ontario was presented. To follow global deregulation trends, the Ontario Government has embarked on a considerable restructuring of the Ontario electricity market. The monopoly position of Ontario Hydro has been removed by restructuring the provincial utility into two separate companies, GENCO and SERVCO, which will be responsible for the generation and transmission and distribution of electricity, respectively. Other mechanisms put in place to favour a free and competitive market for electricity in the province, such as the arrival on the market of other electricity producers, and the establishment of the independent market operator, are also discussed. 2 tabs

Market power and storage in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skaar, Jostein

2004-05-01

Market power in liberalised electricity markets dominated by hydropower is analyzed in four chapters. The existing literature on competition in hydropower markets is briefly presented and examined. Chapter 1 discusses the effects of market power in the context of acquisitions in a situation where transmission capacity is constrained. Chapter 2 and 3 elaborate on the issue of competition and market power when water inflow is uncertain, and finally Chapter 4 focuses on the supply function equilibrium model in the context of a hydropower market

Assessing the efficiency of US electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arciniegas, I.; Barrett, C.; Marathe, A.

2003-01-01

The recent California's energy crisis has raised doubts about the benefits of energy deregulation. While it is true that the California electricity market is in turmoil, other electricity markets like the Pennsylvania-NewJersey-Maryland (PJM) are doing fine. This paper assesses the mark of efficiency reached by the electricity markets in California, New York, and PJM. It also compares the degree of efficiency across markets (forward vs. real time) and across time. No significant differences between the California and PJM electricity markets were discovered in the year of California's energy crisis (2000) using the co-integration tests. This research suggests that differences in price behavior between these two markets during 2000 did not arise from differences in efficiency. According to our analysis and measures of efficiency, PJM and California electricity markets are more efficient than the New York market. Also, as these markets become more mature over time, their efficiency level goes up. We also found evidence that a multi-settlement scheduling system leads to higher efficiency. (author)

Latent Integrated Stochastic Volatility, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility: A State Space Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bach, Christian; Christensen, Bent Jesper

process is downward biased. Implied volatility performs better than any of the alternative realized measures when forecasting future integrated volatility. The results are largely similar across the stock market (S&P 500), bond market (30-year U.S. T-bond), and foreign currency exchange market ($/£ )....

Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

1998-01-01

Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area

Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

1998-01-01

Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area.

New Brunswick electricity market rules : summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-02-01

The electricity market rules for New Brunswick were reviewed with particular reference to two broad classifications. The first classification is based on the roles and responsibilities of the system operator (SO) in facilitating the Bilateral Contract market, as well as the role of market participants in participating in the Bilateral Contract market. The second classification is based on the roles and responsibilities of each of the SO, market participants and transmitters in maintaining the reliability of the integrated electricity system and ensuring a secure supply of electricity for consumers in New Brunswick. The market rules consist of 10 chapters entitled: (1) introduction to the market rules and administrative rules of general application, (2) market participation and the use of the SO-controlled grid, (3) market administration, (4) technical and connection requirements, testing and commissioning, (5) system reliability, (6) operational requirements, (7) settlement, (8) connection of new or modified facilities, (9) transmission system planning, investment and operation, and (10) definitions and interpretation

Competition policies on the electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubois, U.

2008-01-01

This article puts forward a critical analysis of European competition instruments and practices in terms of market power on the electricity wholesale markets. Due to the speck nature of electrical activities, competition policies come up against difficulties of market power identification at first, since there is no model for detecting perfectly the potential or real exertion of market power in this sector. What is more, since competition authorities rely on specific intervention methods, their ability to limit the exertion of market power is relatively low. For a large number of their interventions involves controlling concentrations. In the light of this double phenomenon, this article discusses some recent developments of European competition policies on the electricity wholesale markets. The sector inquiry of 2007 seems to mark the start of a new competition policy practice in the electricity sector. The initiative and decision-making power now seem to be nesting mainly at a European level where action is not only to be found in terms of controlling mergers and acquisitions, but also stretches to involve an in-depth evaluation of the way the different markets work. This action is manifested in decisions to investigate some companies as well as legislative proposals in the framework of the third package. Thus we are moving towards a greater monitoring of electricity markets using more formal supervision instruments and on a more continuous basis. (author)

Electricity pricing and load dispatching in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geerli; Niioka, S.; Yokoyama, R.

2003-01-01

A rapid move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly alter the structure of electricity pricing and system operation. In this paper, we consider a game of negotiation in the electricity market, involving electric utilities, independent power producers (IPPs) and large-scale customers. We analyze the two-level game strategies for the negotiation process between utilities, IPPs and customers. These have been previously recognized as a way to come up with a rational decision for competitive markets, in which players intend to maximize their own profits. The derived operation rules based on competition can be viewed as an extension of the conventional equal incremental cost method for the deregulated power system. The proposed approach was applied to several systems to verify its effectiveness. (Author)

Balancing renewable on intra day electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sokol, R.; Bems, J.

2012-01-01

Intra day electricity markets contribute to facilitate transition from conventional sources to renewable which need to be balanced on real-time basic due to the unpredictable nature of weather. This paper describes the way from regional electricity markets to a single pan-european market model which is target model of the European Commission. Single liquid intra day electricity market where market participants can balance their portfolios is prerequisite to a full utilisation of renewable power sources and a solution for some problems experienced by TSOs with loop and parallel flows from neighbouring countries. Integrated German and French intra day electricity market which uses Flexible Intra day Trading Scheme is described in this paper as a market which could be extended further to the CEE region with very poor liquidity of its local intra day markets. (Authors)

Volatility-constrained multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis: Cross-correlation among Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Minjia; Li, Qingchen

2017-04-01

This study focuses on multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of the different volatility intervals of Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets. A volatility-constrained multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (VC-MF-DCCA) method is proposed to study the volatility conductivity of Mainland China, US, and Hong Kong stock markets. Empirical results indicate that fluctuation may be related to important activities in real markets. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) stock market is more influential than the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) stock market. Furthermore, the SCI stock market is more influential than the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market. The conductivity between the HSI and SCI stock markets is the strongest. HSI was the most influential market in the large fluctuation interval of 1991 to 2014. The autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average method is used to verify the validity of VC-MF-DCCA. Results show that VC-MF-DCCA is effective.

The electricity market 2002

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The purpose of the 'Electricity market 2002' publication is to meet the need for generalized and readily accessible information on the conditions on the Nordic market. Iceland is not included in the description. The publication also includes summaries of information from recent years concerning electricity generation and utilization in the Nordic countries, the structure of the electricity market from the players' perspective, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and in Northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic and other countries, and the impact of the electricity sector on the environment. The publication contains data on electricity generation and use during the past years, structure of the electricity market, trade in electricity in the Nordic countries and northern Europe, electricity prices in the Nordic countries and other countries as well as impact of electricity generation system on the environment. The market price of electricity is affected by a number of factors, including fuel prices, availability of water, and the power and energy balances of the various countries. The availability of water in Norway and Sweden has been very good in recent years, which has had a major influence on the price. 1996 was a dry year, which led to a high system price on Nord Pool. The price of electricity then dropped and has remained at a relatively low level up to the year 2001. The price of electricity rose during the spring of 2001 and remained at a higher level also during the summer months. The main reason was that the availability of water was lower than normal in Norway during the early part of the year. This created a higher demand for imported electricity in Norway and caused some apprehension that the year would be dry. The total price of electricity to the end users has not followed the system price development. The total cost of electricity to the end consumers consists of three items, i.e. the price of electricity, the network

Development needs of the electricity market. Final report by the working group on the five-year revision of the electricity market act

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The opening of the Finnish electricity market was started by the Electricity Market Act that entered into force in 1995. The Act abolished the obstructions to competition in electricity production, foreign trade and sales. To guarantee the functioning of the electricity market in practice, the electricity network operators were obliged to gradually open up their networks for the use of other parties operating on the market. Finland has liberated her electricity market in the forefront and ahead of the prescribed time in relation to the obligations laid down in the EC Directive concerning common rules for the internal market in electricity. The working group has studied the development needs of the electricity market in the light of experience gained during the validity of the Electricity Market Act. As a general conclusion, the working group states that the Finnish electricity market is functioning in an appropriate manner and that there is no reason to essentially change the model chosen for the opening of the electricity market. The working group makes several proposals for actions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of the electricity market. According to the view of the working group, electricity users, production plants and distribution network operators should be authorised to construct a 110-440 kV connection line of their own to a 110 kV network or grid. Following the working group's proposal, the regulation concerning electricity retailers would be extended over to electricity vendors operating as retailers in a real-estate network. To guarantee the functioning of competition on the small-scale consumers' electricity market, the working group suggests that the customers would be entitled during one year to one change of vendor for which no separate fee would be collected. The working group proposes that construction authorisation conditions pertaining to border lines should be specified so that one condition for granting an authorisation would

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium

Assessing Volatilities of Monetary Policy and their Effects on the Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M Shabri Abd Majid

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to empirically assess the volatilities of the monetary policy instruments and their effects on the Indonesian Islamic and conventional stock market. The changes in exchange rate, interest rates, and money supply and their effects on the stock markets are investigated using the using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity frameworks. As a big-open economy, the capital market of Indonesia is vulnerable to the global monetary shocks changes, thus the US federal funds rate is also incorporated into the GARCH model. The study documented that, with the exception of the US interest rate, the volatilities of all monetary policy variables of interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply were documented affecting the volatilities of both Islamic and conventional stock markets. These findings imply that the volatilities of Islamic and conventional stock markets have similar determinants, thus to stabilize the markets, the investigated monetary policy variables should be controlled for by the policy-makers. Any monetary policy design imposed by the policy-makers would have a similar effect on both conventional and Islamic stocks in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.7352

Electricity marketing and retailing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanlon, C.

2001-01-01

ECNG Inc. is a full service provider of independent and objective energy advice and management services to industrial, commercial and institutional end-users of all forms of energy. ECNG manages 10 per cent of the Ontario gas market and expects a 10 per cent share of electricity (14 TWh). ECNG has a balanced portfolio with expertise in both petroleum and electricity sectors. The company has also dealt extensively with retailers, marketers, wholesalers and suppliers on issues regarding deregulation

Intermittently renewable energy, optimal capacity mix and prices in a deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milstein, Irena; Tishler, Asher

2011-01-01

This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). In the first stage of the model (game), when only the probability distribution functions of future daily electricity demand and sunshine are known, producers maximize their expected profits by determining the CCGT and PV capacity to be constructed. In the second stage, once daily demand and sunshine conditions become known, each producer selects the daily production by each technology, taking the capacities of both technologies as given, and subject to the availability of the PV capacity, which can be used only if the sun is shining. Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price. Thus, when considering the promotion of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions, regulators should assess the behavior of the electricity market, particularly with respect to characteristics of renewable technologies and demand and supply uncertainties. - Research Highlights: → This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. → We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as CCGT and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). →Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. → A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price.

Analysis of competition and market power in the wholesale electricity market in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, Umesh Kumar; Thampy, Ashok

2011-01-01

The electricity reforms were initiated in India with the objective of promoting competition in the electricity market. In order to promote competition, the Electricity Act 2003 was enacted and various policy initiatives were taken by the Government of India. Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) also facilitated competition through the regulatory framework of availability based tariff, Indian Electricity Grid Code, open access in inter-state transmission, inter-state trading and power exchanges. Despite these initiatives, electricity prices increased in the Wholesale Electricity Market in India (WEMI). This paper analyses the market structure and competitiveness in the WEMI. There are, of course, various potential reasons for the rise in the electricity price. This paper seeks to investigate, if market power was one of the reasons for increase in market prices. Concentration ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Supply Margin Assessment, and Residual Supply Index have been used to measure market power. This paper also uses the price-cost mark-up to examine, if exercise of market power led to higher margins. The analysis suggests that market power of firms may be part of the reason for the increase in electricity prices in WEMI. The study suggests various measures to increase competition in the WEMI.

Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herguera, Inigo

2000-01-01

The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

Determining market boundaries in the electricity sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Godde, Anne

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to develop a method of determining market boundaries in preparation of identifying all the competitive forces which a company in the electricity sector must address and deciding on this basis whether it has a dominant position in the market. The study focused in particular on current developments in the German electricity sector, this being the only way to permit a demarcation that accurately reflects the true economic situation. First the question was addressed whether a determination of market boundaries is at all necessary for performing a competitive analysis and in what specific constellations they could play a role. Giving due consideration to the special features of the electricity sector the most preferable market demarcation methods were applied to individual areas of the electricity sector that are of competitive relevance. Efforts were directed at arriving at market boundaries most conducive to the goal of identifying those competitive forces which a company in the electricity sector must address. For this purpose a critical assessment was undertaken of established market demarcation practices in Europe and Germany in order to determine whether ''classical'' market demarcation methods could be applied or whether modifications were needed on account of special features of market structure. The author also describes and discusses alternatives to the established market demarcation methods. She also elucidates methods of determining the boundaries of markets that have emerged as a result of recent developments in the electricity sector, for example through the growth of electricity production from renewable resources, or which are still in the process of formation.

Empirical assessment of market power in the Alberta wholesale electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu, F.

2007-01-01

In the 1990s, many countries began to unbundle regulated electricity monopolies into generation, transmission, distribution and retail companies. Transmission and distribution services remained regulated, but generation and retail services were open for competition. Wholesale and retail electricity markets were created. This paper presented a newly developed competitiveness index specifically for the Alberta market through a simple and standard economic approach. The Alberta Electric Utilities Act came into effect in January 1996. This paper described how the Alberta wholesale electricity market works and demonstrated how to model market power in the electricity market. In this study, power generating companies in Alberta were divided into 2 groups. The first group contained the 5 largest firms called strategic firms, while the other group contained the small generating companies called non-strategic firms or the competitive fringe. In the sample years 2003 and 2004, strategic firms withheld capacity when price was above marginal cost and behaved within the range of competitive pricing. They were more likely to price competitively than to use unilateral market power prices. In addition, firms had higher price-cost margins during the off-peak season. This paper explained in detail the reason for this unusual off-peak pattern. The index to measure a firm's strategic behaviour in the Alberta electricity market was developed according to price-cost margin data where firm-behaviour effect was distinguished from the demand-elasticity effect. It was concluded that policy-makers and regulations should consider the magnitude and source of market power when designing market structure, rules and trading practices. 9 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

Electricity market design and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boschi, Federico; Cervigni, Guido

2005-01-01

We show that each wholesale electricity market design trades-off between efficiency and liquidity. Efficiency requires that the product traded in the wholesale market closely reflect the physical features of electricity. Liquidity requires standardization of the products that ore traded on the wholesale market. We stress that Iiquidity comes at a cost since an excessive degree of standardization may lead to significant inefficiencies and forge wealth transfers among market participants [it

Electricity market design for the future

OpenAIRE

robinson, david; Keay, Malcolm

2017-01-01

This paper explains why current electricity markets are not fit for purpose and propose a new market design. Electricity markets operating today were designed for the technical and economic conditions of the 1990's. These conditions have changed substantially, especially with increased penetration of intermittent renewables and the growing potential for distributed energy resources and consumer involvement. Today's markets are incompatible with these trends. They do not provide h...

Level Shifts in Volatility and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Bent Jesper; de Magistris, Paolo Santucci

We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization to the mult......We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization...... to the multivariate case of the univariate level shift technique by Lu and Perron (2008). An application to the S&P500 index and a simulation experiment show that the recently documented empirical properties of strong persistence in volatility and forecastability of future realized volatility from current implied...... volatility, which have been interpreted as long memory (or fractional integration) in volatility and fractional cointegration between implied and realized volatility, are accounted for by occasional common level shifts....

An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okičić Jasmina

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

Forecasting the Electricity Demand and Market Shares in Retail Electricity Market Based on System Dynamics and Markov Chain

OpenAIRE

Qingyou Yan; Chao Qin; Mingjian Nie; Le Yang

2018-01-01

Due to the deregulation of retail electricity market, consumers can choose retail electric suppliers freely, and market entities are facing fierce competition because of the increasing number of new entrants. Under these circumstances, forecasting the changes in all market entities, when market share stabilized, is important for suppliers making marketing decisions. In this paper, a market share forecasting model was established based on Markov chain, and a system dynamics model was construct...

Portfolio optimization in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Min; Wu, Felix F.

2007-01-01

In a competitive electricity market, Generation companies (Gencos) face price risk and delivery risk that affect their profitability. Risk management is an important and essential part in the Genco's decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is considered. The problem of energy allocation between spot markets and bilateral contracts is formulated as a general portfolio optimization problem with a risk-free asset and n risky assets. Historical data of the PJM electricity market are used to demonstrate the approach. (author)

E-laboratories : agent-based modeling of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

North, M.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Macal, C.; Thimmapuram, P.; Veselka, T.

2002-01-01

Electricity markets are complex adaptive systems that operate under a wide range of rules that span a variety of time scales. These rules are imposed both from above by society and below by physics. Many electricity markets are undergoing or are about to undergo a transition from centrally regulated systems to decentralized markets. Furthermore, several electricity markets have recently undergone this transition with extremely unsatisfactory results, most notably in California. These high stakes transitions require the introduction of largely untested regulatory structures. Suitable laboratories that can be used to test regulatory structures before they are applied to real systems are needed. Agent-based models can provide such electronic laboratories or ''e-laboratories.'' To better understand the requirements of an electricity market e-laboratory, a live electricity market simulation was created. This experience helped to shape the development of the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive Systems (EMCAS) model. To explore EMCAS' potential as an e-laboratory, several variations of the live simulation were created. These variations probed the possible effects of changing power plant outages and price setting rules on electricity market prices

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retail electricity providers for the day-ahead market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Faria, Pedro; Ramos, Sergio; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita

2015-01-01

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand. - Highlights: • Asset-light electricity retail providers subject to financial risks. • Incentive-based demand response program to manage the financial risks. • Maximizing the payoff of electricity retail providers in day-ahead market. • Mixed integer nonlinear programming to manage the risks

Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

Towards a regional electricity market in Southeast Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ichord, R.F. Jr.

2002-01-01

Historical evolution of the region's electric power policy is overviewed. The regional characteristics of Southern Europe's electric power market are summarized. The reform indicators of the region's electricity markets are discussed. The status of privatization is presented. Factors in developing regional electricity market are considered. (R.P.)

THE VOLATILITY OF THE FINANCIAL MARKET – A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mester Ioana Teodora

2008-05-01

Full Text Available During the last years, the financial markets have been subject to significant fluctuations of their financial actives. These spectacular movements have revived the interest, in the academic circles and policy makers and regulation and control authorities as well, for the financial market volatility. The analysis of these phenomena is justified by the fact that the stock exchange chocks have significant effects on the financial stability and they can lead to serious consequences in the real economy.

The French wholesale electricity, natural gas and CO2 markets in 2010-2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-10-01

CRE's mission of monitoring wholesale markets aims to ensure that wholesale market energy prices are consistent with the technical and economic fundamentals of these markets. In particular, CRE strives to verify that no market power is exercised in such a way that a participant abuses its situation to attain abnormal prices, notably with regard to its costs. During 2010, the volumes traded on the intermediated wholesale electricity markets declined by 7% compared to 2009, mainly on the futures markets. The availability of production facilities, in particular nuclear plants, significantly increased and market volatility declined. The average spot price of electricity increased by 10.4% in 2010 compared to 2009, to euro 47.5 /MWh. The average peak price increased by 1.3% in 2010 to euro 59.0 /MWh. Prices for calendar products (Y+1) went from euro 51.7 /MWh on average in 2009 to euro 52.4 /MWh in 2010. These increases mainly reflect the resumption in consumption following the recovery in economic activity and the severe weather conditions in 2010. Since the beginning of 2010, the recovery in availability of nuclear production facilities has contributed to improving the French electricity trade balance at the borders. The expansion of the trilateral coupling (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands) to Germany and, more recently, the German moratorium on nuclear production of electricity has had effects on the European wholesale electricity markets. French term contracts prices are now below German prices. The transparency of the market has increased, notably due to the publication of unplanned outages at production sites within 30 minutes since the end of 2010. On the wholesale gas markets, volumes traded increased significantly in 2010 and in the first six months of 2011. This development extends the dynamic already observed in 2009. The context is still marked by a discrepancy between gas prices on the market and the price of long-term contracts indexed to oil

Electric glass capturing markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wikman, K.; Wikstroem, T.

1996-11-01

Electric glass has found its place on the construction market. In public buildings, electrically heatable windows are becoming the leading option for large glass walls. Studies on detached houses, both new and renovated, show that floor heating combined with electrically heatable windowpanes is the best choice with respect to resident`s comfort. (orig.)

Financial news predicts stock market volatility better than close price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Atkins

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The behaviour of time series data from financial markets is influenced by a rich mixture of quantitative information from the dynamics of the system, captured in its past behaviour, and qualitative information about the underlying fundamentals arriving via various forms of news feeds. Pattern recognition of financial data using an effective combination of these two types of information is of much interest nowadays, and is addressed in several academic disciplines as well as by practitioners. Recent literature has focused much effort on the use of news-derived information to predict the direction of movement of a stock, i.e. posed as a classification problem, or the precise value of a future asset price, i.e. posed as a regression problem. Here, we show that information extracted from news sources is better at predicting the direction of underlying asset volatility movement, or its second order statistics, rather than its direction of price movement. We show empirical results by constructing machine learning models of Latent Dirichlet Allocation to represent information from news feeds, and simple naïve Bayes classifiers to predict the direction of movements. Empirical results show that the average directional prediction accuracy for volatility, on arrival of new information, is 56%, while that of the asset close price is no better than random at 49%. We evaluate these results using a range of stocks and stock indices in the US market, using a reliable news source as input. We conclude that volatility movements are more predictable than asset price movements when using financial news as machine learning input, and hence could potentially be exploited in pricing derivatives contracts via quantifying volatility. Keywords: Machine learning, Natural language processing, Volatility forecasting, Technical analysis, Computational finance

Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Hamagami, Tomoki

Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

2011-12-01

In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

Volatility Degree Forecasting of Stock Market by Stochastic Time Strength Neural Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haiyan Mo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In view of the applications of artificial neural networks in economic and financial forecasting, a stochastic time strength function is introduced in the backpropagation neural network model to predict the fluctuations of stock price changes. In this model, stochastic time strength function gives a weight for each historical datum and makes the model have the effect of random movement, and then we investigate and forecast the behavior of volatility degrees of returns for the Chinese stock market indexes and some global market indexes. The empirical research is performed in testing the prediction effect of SSE, SZSE, HSI, DJIA, IXIC, and S&P 500 with different selected volatility degrees in the established model.

Electric power and gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

These two days organized by EFE in Paris, dealt with the european market of the gas and the electrical power. The first day developed the actual situation and the tendencies. The french market deregulation, the possibility of a united market and the energy transportation sector are discussed. The second day dealt with the new commercial technologies, the convergence of Gas and Electricity and the competing in a change world, the opportunities of the NTIC (new technologies of the information and communication). (A.L.B.)

The European green electricity markets in 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meibom, Peter; Skytte, Klaus

2003-01-01

The market shares of different electricity producing renewable energy technologies in the green electricity markets in EU, and the size and prices obtained on these markets depends strongly on the market designs and support policies governing the development of these markets. These issues have been analysed with the use of the ADMIRE REBUS model. Costs data for all significant electricity producing renewable energy technologies and data on the sizes of the renewable energy resources in the EU are combined with different national development of the support policies for green electricity in the different EU countries towards a common EU market in 2010. The model simulates the operation of each green electricity market in EU and the interaction between the markets. Model results show that in a harmonized EU wide tradable green certificate system starting from 2010, i.e. in a system without technology-specific support, wind power will be the most competitive technology, but power plants using different types of biomass will also gain a large share of the market. To reach the indicative EU targets for RES-E production in 2010 a TGC price of 5.6 eurocents is necessary in addition to a physical power price of 2.2 eurocents. (au)

Market Monitor, development of the wholesale trade market of electricity 2006. Results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeulen, M.; Mulder, M.; Van den Reek, W.; Thomeer, G.; De Kleijn, M.

2007-12-01

The Office of Energy Regulation carries out its legal task by means of a monitor, a practical tool to assess and analyze the wholesale market for electricity. Monitoring of the wholesale electricity market concerns continuous, accurate and structured following of developments in the market. The aim is to identify in time signals from the market that could lead to a decrease of competition and transparency. The starting point of the monitor for the wholesale electricity market is the selection of indicators which give insight in real competition, liquidity and transparency [nl

Information Acquisition and Excessive Risk: Impact of Policy Rate and Market Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volha Audzei

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Excessive risk-taking of financial agents drew a lot of attention in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Low interest rates and subdued market volatility during the Great Moderation are sometimes blamed for stimulating risk-taking and leading to the recent financial crisis. In recent years, with many central banks around the world conducting the policy of low interest rates and mitigating market risks, it has been debatable whether this policy contributes to the building up of another credit boom. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on information acquisition by the financial agents. We build a theoretical model which captures excessive risk taking in response to changes in policy rate and market volatility. This excessive risk takes the form of an increased risk appetite of the agents, but also of decreased incentives to acquire information about risky assets. As a result, with market risk being reduced, agents tend to acquire more risk in their portfolios then they would with the higher market risk. The same forces increase portfolio risk when the safe interest rate is falling. The robustness of the results is considered with different learning rules.

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, Monika; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hertel, Thomas

2014-01-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%. (letter)

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

2014-05-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

2010-01-01

Ancillary services are necessary for maintaining the security and reliability of power systems and constitute an important part of trade in competitive electricity markets. Spinning Reserve (SR) is one of the most important ancillary services for saving power system stability and integrity in response to contingencies and disturbances that continuously occur in the power systems. Hence, an accurate day-ahead forecast of SR requirement helps the Independent System Operator (ISO) to conduct a reliable and economic operation of the power system. However, SR signal has complex, non-stationary and volatile behavior along the time domain and depends greatly on system load. In this paper, a new hybrid forecast engine is proposed for SR requirement prediction. The proposed forecast engine has an iterative training mechanism composed of Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) learning algorithm and Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), implemented on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The proposed forecast methodology is examined by means of real data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and the California ISO (CAISO) controlled grid. The obtained forecast results are presented and compared with those of the other SR forecast methods. (author)

A new spinning reserve requirement forecast method for deregulated electricity markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid [Department of Electrical Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan (Iran)

2010-06-15

Ancillary services are necessary for maintaining the security and reliability of power systems and constitute an important part of trade in competitive electricity markets. Spinning Reserve (SR) is one of the most important ancillary services for saving power system stability and integrity in response to contingencies and disturbances that continuously occur in the power systems. Hence, an accurate day-ahead forecast of SR requirement helps the Independent System Operator (ISO) to conduct a reliable and economic operation of the power system. However, SR signal has complex, non-stationary and volatile behavior along the time domain and depends greatly on system load. In this paper, a new hybrid forecast engine is proposed for SR requirement prediction. The proposed forecast engine has an iterative training mechanism composed of Levenberg-Marquadt (LM) learning algorithm and Real Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), implemented on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network. The proposed forecast methodology is examined by means of real data of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market and the California ISO (CAISO) controlled grid. The obtained forecast results are presented and compared with those of the other SR forecast methods. (author)

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission`s subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry`s efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets.

Economic-efficiency considerations in restructuring electric markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, L.J.

1996-12-01

In response to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's subsequent rulemaking on transmission access, many states are exploring options to restructure their electric industries. In their deliberations on restructuring, policymakers should consider (1) the reliability of the electric system; (2) income-distribution effects on ratepayers and utilities; (3) social consequences such as effects on energy conservation, renewable energy, and the environment; and (4) economic efficiency. We address economic-efficiency considerations in this study. Economic efficiency is important because it is one of the primary reasons that policymakers should consider restructuring in the first place: improving the electric-industry's efficiency lowers costs and, hence, electric prices. In this study, we look at the sources of (in)efficiency in existing and proposed electric markets with the objective of guiding policymakers to design efficient electric markets. The advantages of a competitive market are well known: it leads to lower costs for the utility, lower prices for consumers, more product choices, better customer service, and often the need for less regulation by federal and state agencies. In the short run, firms who cannot produce at the market-clearing price are forced to leave the industry, ensuring that customers have the lowest price possible. In the long run, competition promotes innovation and lower costs. The physical and institutional characteristics of the U.S. electric industry, however, could be impediments to attaining efficiently run, competitive markets. Because of these characteristics, there are multiple sources of efficiencies and inefficiencies in existing electric markets, and there will be multiple sources in restructured ones. The objective of policymakers should not be to trade one set of inefficiencies in existing electric markets for another set in restructured markets

Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vaishali S. Dhingra

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nader Naifar

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

The role of nuclear power plants in the wholesale electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, J. c.; Alonso, J.; Gonzalez, A.; Gonzalez, R.

2009-01-01

The Spanish electricity market has been running foe eleven years and its rules and procedures have proven compatible with a safe and stable operation of the nuclear power plants, helped by a wide portfolio of technologies in the Spanish system. In the near future, two issues emerge as a potential threat: the increase in renewable (mainly wind) production and its volatility and the development of new network infrastructure around the plants owned by third parties. Stricter rules on network development and operation and greater respect to the plants operational needs have to be pushed forward by the industry to succeed in life extension programs. (Author)

Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Shapira

2011-06-01

Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

Electricity costs in liberalized market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barkans, J.; Junghans, G.

2006-01-01

In the liberalized electricity market the flexible demand determines the operation of power plants. Under market conditions the producers are forced to compete, and their power plants are normally loaded in order of increasing prices. The electricity costs consist of fixed and variable components, and the competition among producers simulates minimization of both the components. Considering the fixed costs (including maintenance, depreciation, capital costs and other permanent costs not depending on production) to be known, the total electricity costs in different operating conditions are based on the economic characteristics and the equipment load of a power plant. The paper describes the method for determination of electricity costs for condensing thermal power plants with permanent steam take-off for regeneration purposes and adjustable steam take-off for the needs of local heat energy consumers. The marginal costs for CHP plants are determined considering a number of different steam take-off from a turbine. At the electricity cost determination, auxiliary services also are taken into account. These can be reduced by adjusting the rotational speed of electric motors. The paper also shows how to determine the electricity costs for gas turbines, combined cycle gas turbines, and nuclear power plants. The position of hydro power plants among other PPs in the free market is also analysed. (authors)

Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)

2001-01-01

We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.

Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaughan, S.; Patterson, Z.; Miller, P.; Block, G.

2002-06-01

The Secretariat of the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) was responsible for the preparation of this working paper that identifies key issues related to the evolving electricity sector and the environment. It was decided to approach the topics from an anecdotal or case-by-case basis, as the issues are very complex and the scope wide. There are ongoing discussions concerning principles, design, rules, institutional structure and consequences pertaining to the introduction of free markets in the electricity sector. Efficiency gains will be realised over time, as was argued in the paper by advocates of the competitive electricity markets in both the United States and Canada. Marginal decreases in electricity prices resulting from greater choice are also expected, in addition to the price decreases resulting from the efficiency gains. The authors warned that these benefits belong to the theoretical field, as only a small fraction of customers have switched to alternate providers in those jurisdictions where customer choice is allowed. The case of California was discussed, with its greatly increased volatility in wholesale electricity markets to illustrate how price increases have overwhelmed the expected price reductions from increased efficiency. Eight different sections were created in this paper to properly address all the issues. An overview of the current electricity sector, from the perspective of installed capacity, generation and fuel mix in North America was provided in Section One. The environmental context of electricity generation, with the focus on criteria air pollutants and non-air environmental impacts was discussed in Section Two. The various scenarios concerning electricity supply and demand, with forecasts to 2010 and 2020 were included in Section Three, in addition to a discussion related to New Generating capacity data to 2007. Possible environmental impacts of this new generating capacity was examined in Section Four, while in Section

Demand Response Within Current Electricity Wholesale Market Design

OpenAIRE

Ramos Gutierrez, Ariana Isabel; De Jonghe, Cedric; Six, Daan; Belmans, Ronnie

2013-01-01

The introduction of intermittent energy resources calls for the ability to modulate consumption patterns according to electricity availability. This paper provides a brief overview of the main electricity market design characteristics and places demand response within the framework of the existing timeline of market operation. The main differences between electricity markets lie in the price formation mechanisms where some markets pay-as- cleared and some pay- as- bid for the electricity tran...

Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales González, Juan Miguel; Conejo, Antonio J.; Madsen, Henrik

in the electricity market. • The development of procedures to enable demand response and to facilitate the integration of stochastic renewable units. This book is written in a modular and tutorial manner and includes many illustrative examples to facilitate its comprehension. It is intended for advanced...... such as: • The modeling and forecasting of stochastic renewable power production. • The characterization of the impact of renewable production on market outcomes. • The clearing of electricity markets with high penetration of stochastic renewable units. • The development of mechanisms to counteract...

Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?

Science.gov (United States)

Mei, Dexiang; Liu, Jing; Ma, Feng; Chen, Wang

2017-09-01

In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.

Market study on the Mexican market for electrical distribution equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

A brief historical survey of the development of the Mexican electric power sector is presented, along with an overview of the state of the Mexican economy since the late 1980s and the present characteristics of the Mexican electricity sector. The Mexican market for electric power generation and distribution equipment is then assessed, from the perspective of Canadian suppliers and manufacturers intending to enter this market. Projected consumption of electrical generation and distribution equipment in Mexico for 1994 is estimated at US$1,035,600,000 ($719.4 million in production, $356.9 million in imports, and $40.7 million in exports). This market increased 12.3% in 1990, and since power demand in Mexico has been growing faster than growth in capacity, it is possible that investments in the electricity sector will grow at faster rates. Items which are traditionally imported include nuclear reactors and related equipment, boilers, turbines, power breakers, valves, coal and ash handling equipment, relays, automatic controls, and chemical treatment equipment. The USA has the greatest share of the import market with 35%, followed by Japan (22%), Switzerland (18%), and Germany (13%). Canadian exports have concentrated on distribution equipment and only totalled $1.7 million in 1990. Electricity is distributed to some 16.6 million users over a national interconnected system having total installed capacity of 30,513 MW in 1991. There are plans to increase capacity by 9.7 GW by 1994 and another 37.4-47.8 GW between 1995 and 2010. Projections of electricity needs by region are listed along with the new power plants targeted for investment. Market liberalization and lowering of tariffs have made the Mexican market more accessible to exporters. 8 tabs

Electricity market design of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peek, Markus; Diels, Robert

2016-01-01

The transformation of the power generation system, to one in which renewable energies will form a cornerstone, will change the requirements for all market actors. To achieve the goals of the German Energiewende ('energy transition'), greater flexibility in production and consumption is of particular importance. Flexibility enables the cost-effective integration of the fluctuating actual feed-in of renewable energies. On the one hand, the technical options for reducing existing technical inflexibilities are given to a considerable extent. On the other hand, analyses of the transnational compensation effects of load and renewable energy supply (RES) feed-in show that flexibility requirements can be reduced significantly in a common electricity market. Electricity markets in which there is open technological competition are an appropriate instrument for the flexibilization of the power supply system. In the short term, the mechanisms of competitive electricity markets ensure an efficient synchronization of supply and demand. Over the medium and long term, the market creates efficient incentives to adapt the generation system and the behavior of consumers to future needs, resulting from the changes in the residual load structure. But at the same time, in recent years the occurrence of negative electricity prices in situations with significantly positive residual loads show that flexibility restraints exist. The causes of these restraints are at least partly due to the market design or the regulatory framework. On the one hand, there are barriers to market entry and, on the other hand, price signals from the electricity markets do not reach all market actors or reach them distortedly. To enable the cost effective development of the different flexibility options in an open technology competition, restraints resulting from market design and the regulatory framework (e. g. in the framework of grid charges, the market and product design of control power markets

Engineering Electricity Markets for a Decarbonized Energy System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jenle, Rasmus Ploug; Pallesen, Trine

Decarbonization of the Danish electricity sector has recently been sought achieved through the introduction of a novel retail electricity market, named EcoGrid, designed to create price responsive consumers. By following the market design process undertaken by engineers at the Technical Universit...... of introducing synthetic markets as means of governance.......Decarbonization of the Danish electricity sector has recently been sought achieved through the introduction of a novel retail electricity market, named EcoGrid, designed to create price responsive consumers. By following the market design process undertaken by engineers at the Technical University...... of Denmark, the analysis addresses the question: how do engineers make markets? The answer to this question as presented here is: engineers design control systems. By tracing the origins of EcoGrid, this paper documents the governing of electricity consumers through a ‘synthetic market’, i.e. a market...

Market surveillance in Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chandler, H.

2002-01-01

On May 1, 2002 both wholesale and retail electricity markets in Ontario were opened to competition. Wholesale electricity market sales of 150 TWh were valued at over $11 billion with 27,500 MW in service installed capacity and 4,000 to 6,000 MW import/export capability with strong interconnections to the Quebec, the Midwest and the Northeast. The key players in Ontario's electricity market are the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), the Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO), Ontario Power Generation, and Hydro One. The OEB regulatory framework includes licensing and front line, daily monitoring of whole sale market. Serious capacity problems in Ontario have manifested themselves in tight supply and demand situations and highly volatile prices. The paper included graphs of available reserves for 1996 to 2002, HOEP trends and frequency, HOEP comparison, and a sensitivity to demand forecast. 1 tab., 6 figs

Overview of Wholesale Electricity Markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cochran, Jaquelin M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ela, Erik [Electric Power Research Institute; Botterud, Audun [Argonne National Laboratory; Levin, Todd [Argonne National Laboratory

2018-02-15

This chapter provides a comprehensive review of four key electricity markets: energy markets (day-ahead and real-time markets); ancillary service markets; financial transmission rights markets; capacity markets. It also discusses how the outcomes of each of these markets may be impacted by the introduction of high penetrations of variable generation. Furthermore, the chapter examines considerations needed to ensure that wholesale market designs are inclusive of emerging technologies, such as demand response, distributed generation, and distributed storage.

The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravn, H.F.

2004-01-01

The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

Renewables in Electricity Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ordoudis, Christos; Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

2014-01-01

Electricity is nowadays commonly exchanged through electricity markets, designed in a context where dispatchable generators, with non-negligible marginal costs, were dominating. By depending primarily on conventional (fossil, hydro and nuclear) power generation based on marginal pricing...... not designed to take into account the uncertainty brought by the substantial variability and limited predictability associated with stochastic sources, most notably wind power and solar energy. Due to these developments, the need for decision making models able to account for the uncertainty introduced by high...... from renewables, and on the adaption of electricity market designs and power system operations to the aforementioned characteristics of renewables. Additionally, the aim of the research group is supplemented by providing the appropriate frameworks for secure future investments in the field...

Housing market volatility in the OECD area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

2014-01-01

Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash flow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the jajority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia play...... an important role in accounting for housing market volatility. Bivariate cross-country correlations and principal components analyses indicate that part of the return movements have a common factor among the majority of countries. We explain the results in terms of global changes in credit constraints...

Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

2008-03-01

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

Gas and electricity 2001: new market mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

This document brings together 15 testimonies of experts about the opening of gas and electricity markets: 1 - from the opening of the electricity market to the future deregulation of the gas market: what are the new rules of the world energy market? Gaz de France's strategy in front of the opening of the market. The problem of the gas supplies in Europe in the framework of the opening of markets; 2 - Is the access to the network the same for everybody: the regulation authority as catalyst of the electricity market; the technical network constraints and the conditions of access to the transport and interconnections; the regulatory and contractual framework of the access to interconnections; how a foreign producer can warrant the supply of electricity in France; 3 - which global offer and which new services to be supplied to clients today: what is the global offer of a new actor? Power supply and associated services: what is the global offer of new actors to answer the client's needs? 4 - What are the expectations and choices of consumers in a de-regulated environment; definitions and implementations of new European strategies of purchase: how the purchaser work has changed? 5 - What is the place of the energy trade: the implementation of the electricity stock exchange in France: Powernext. How to manage risks associated to a gas/electricity assets portfolio? (J.S.)

High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

2016-01-01

of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

Modelling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for USA, UK and China

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); J. Tian (Jiarong)

2016-01-01

textabstractThe primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns

Market power in deregulated electricity markets : a review of the recent experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mullin, K.; Trebilcock, M.

2003-01-01

Traditionally, the electric power industry has been headed by vertically integrated monopolies that combined power generation, transmission, distribution and retail components of electricity supply. Electric utilities were generally publicly owned and subjected to rate-of-return regulation. The industry in many jurisdictions is now being unbundled with the advent of new generation technology that has led the way for small generation facilities to produce competitively priced electricity and enter the electricity market. Regulators have recognized that private monopolies had little incentive to minimize costs resulting in inefficient operation of the utility. The challenge lies in designing a system that truly promotes competitive markets. This presentation examined the characteristics of market power and described the experiences of several jurisdictions in dealing with possible market power abuse. The presentation also presented lessons learned in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, New Zealand, Alberta, and Ontario that could be applied to future electricity markets. In conclusion, the authors state that governments should use caution when implementing across-the-board price caps, because doing so discourages new investment in generation capacity.152 refs

On Volatility Swaps for Stock Market Forecast: Application Example CAC 40 French Index