Earth orientation parameters from VLBI determined with a Kalman filter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Karbon

2017-11-01

We prove that the Kalman filter is more than on par with the classical least squares method and that it is a valuable alternative, especially on the advent of the VLBI2010 Global Observing System and within the GGOS frame work.

ERP Estimation using a Kalman Filter in VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Karbon, M.; Soja, B.; Nilsson, T.; Heinkelmann, R.; Liu, L.; Lu, C.; Mora-Diaz, J. A.; Raposo-Pulido, V.; Xu, M.; Schuh, H.

2014-12-01

Geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is one of the primary space geodetic techniques, providing the full set of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), and it is unique for observing long term Universal Time (UT1). For applications such as satellite-based navigation and positioning, accurate and continuous ERP obtained in near real-time are essential. They also allow the precise tracking of interplanetary spacecraft. One of the goals of VGOS (VLBI Global Observing System) is to provide such near real-time ERP. With the launch of this next generation VLBI system, the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) increased its efforts not only to reach 1 mm accuracy on a global scale but also to reduce the time span between the collection of VLBI observations and the availability of the final results substantially. Project VLBI-ART contributes to these objectives by implementing an elaborate Kalman filter, which represents a perfect tool for analyzing VLBI data in quasi real-time. The goal is to implement it in the GFZ version of the Vienna VLBI Software (VieVS) as a completely automated tool, i.e., with no need for human interaction. Here we present the methodology and first results of Kalman filtered EOP from VLBI data.

Applying Kalman filtering to investigate tropospheric effects in VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Soja, Benedikt; Nilsson, Tobias; Karbon, Maria; Heinkelmann, Robert; Liu, Li; Lu, Cuixian; Andres Mora-Diaz, Julian; Raposo-Pulido, Virginia; Xu, Minghui; Schuh, Harald

2014-05-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) currently provides results, e.g., estimates of the tropospheric delays, with a delay of more than two weeks. In the future, with the coming VLBI2010 Global Observing System (VGOS) and increased usage of electronic data transfer, it is planned that the time between observations and results is decreased. This may, for instance, allow the integration of VLBI-derived tropospheric delays into numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, future VLBI analysis software packages need to be able to process the observational data autonomously in near real-time. For this purpose, we have extended the Vienna VLBI Software (VieVS) by a Kalman filter module. This presentation describes the filter and discusses its application for tropospheric studies. Instead of estimating zenith wet delays as piece-wise linear functions in a least-squares adjustment, the Kalman filter allows for more sophisticated stochastic modeling. We start with a random walk process to model the time-dependent behavior of the zenith wet delays. Other possible approaches include the stochastic model described by turbulence theory, e.g. the model by Treuhaft and Lanyi (1987). Different variance-covariance matrices of the prediction error, depending on the time of the year and the geographic latitude, have been tested. In winter and closer to the poles, lower variances and covariances are appropriate. The horizontal variations in tropospheric delays have been investigated by comparing three different strategies: assumption of a horizontally stratified troposphere, using north and south gradients modeled, e.g., as Gauss-Markov processes, and applying a turbulence model assuming correlations between observations in different azimuths. By conducting Monte-Carlo simulations of current standard VLBI networks and of future VGOS networks, the different tropospheric modeling strategies are investigated. For this purpose, we use the simulator module of VieVS which takes into

Methodology for the combination of sub-daily Earth rotation from GPS and VLBI observations

Science.gov (United States)

Artz, T.; Bernhard, L.; Nothnagel, A.; Steigenberger, P.; Tesmer, S.

2012-03-01

A combination procedure of Earth orientation parameters from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations was developed on the basis of homogeneous normal equation systems. The emphasis and purpose of the combination was the determination of sub-daily polar motion (PM) and universal time (UT1) for a long time-span of 13 years. Time series with an hourly resolution and a model for tidal variations of PM and UT1-TAI (dUT1) were estimated. In both cases, 14-day nutation corrections were estimated simultaneously with the ERPs. Due to the combination procedure, it was warranted that the strengths of both techniques were preserved. At the same time, only a minimum of de-correlating or stabilizing constraints were necessary. Hereby, a PM time series was determined, whose precision is mainly dominated by GPS observations. However, this setup benefits from the fact that VLBI delivered nutation and dUT1 estimates at the same time. An even bigger enhancement can be seen for the dUT1 estimation, where the high-frequency variations are provided by GPS, while the long term trend is defined by VLBI. The estimated combined tidal PM and dUT1 model was predominantly determined from the GPS observations. Overall, the combined tidal model for the first time completely comprises the geometrical benefits of VLBI and GPS observations. In terms of root mean squared (RMS) differences, the tidal amplitudes agree with other empirical single-technique tidal models below 4 μ as in PM and 0.25 μ s in dUT1. The noise floor of the tidal ERP model was investigated in three ways resulting in about 1 μ as for diurnal PM and 0.07 μ s for diurnal dUT1 while the semi-diurnal components have a slightly better accuracy.

Supernova research with VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Bartel, Norbert; Bietenholz, Michael F.

2016-06-01

Core-collapse supernovae have been monitored with VLBI from shortly after the explosion to many years thereafter. Radio emission is produced as the ejecta hit the stellar wind left over from the dyingstar. Images show the details of the interaction as the shock front expands into the circumstellar medium. Measurements of the velocity and deceleration of the expansion provide information on both the ejecta and the circumstellar medium. VLBI observations can also search for the stellar remnant of the explosion, a neutron star or a black hole. Combining the transverse expansion rate with the radial expansion rate from optical spectra allows a geometric determination of the distance to the host galaxy. We will present results from recent VLBI observations, focus on their interpretations, and show updated movies of supernovae from soon after their explosion to the present.

Tropospheric Delay from VLBI and GNSS Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Gubanov, V. S.

2018-02-01

Using an updated version of the QUASAR software package developed at the Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, we have processed the VLBI observations within the international CONT14 program (May 6-20, 2014), in which a global network of 17 stations was involved (a total of 250 000 observations). The package update concerned the optimization of data structure and the refinement of stochastic models for the random variations in wet tropospheric delay and atomic clock difference. The main goal of this paper is to compare the VLBI determinations of the tropospheric delay with its independent determinations using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). We show that both these determinations agree well between themselves only in the case of a global analysis of the VLBI observations, where the VLBI station coordinates are also refined, along with the tropospheric delay and the clock synchronization and Earth orientation parameters. If, alternatively, the station coordinates are insufficiently accurate and are not refined from VLBI observations, then it is appropriate not to determine the tropospheric delay from these observations, but to take it from the publicly accessible independent GNSS data. However, this requires that the VLBI and GNSS techniques operate simultaneously at a common observing site. We have established the shortcomings of the universally accepted method of stabilizing the global solution associated with the absence of a criterion for choosing reference stations and radio sources. Two ways of their elimination are proposed: (i) introducing a coordinated list of weight factors for the errors in the coordinates of such stations and sources into the stabilization algorithm and (ii) adopting a coordinated list of stations and sources the refinement of whose coordinates is not required at all for a certain time.

THE IMPACT OF FREQUENCY STANDARDS ON COHERENCE IN VLBI AT THE HIGHEST FREQUENCIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rioja, M.; Dodson, R. [ICRAR, University of Western Australia, Perth (Australia); Asaki, Y. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuou, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Hartnett, J. [School of Physics, University of Western Australia, Perth (Australia); Tingay, S., E-mail: maria.rioja@icrar.org [ICRAR, Curtin University, Perth (Australia)

2012-10-01

We have carried out full imaging simulation studies to explore the impact of frequency standards in millimeter and submillimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), focusing on the coherence time and sensitivity. In particular, we compare the performance of the H-maser, traditionally used in VLBI, to that of ultra-stable cryocooled sapphire oscillators over a range of observing frequencies, weather conditions, and analysis strategies. Our simulations show that at the highest frequencies, the losses induced by H-maser instabilities are comparable to those from high-quality tropospheric conditions. We find significant benefits in replacing H-masers with cryocooled sapphire oscillator based frequency references in VLBI observations at frequencies above 175 GHz in sites which have the best weather conditions; at 350 GHz we estimate a 20%-40% increase in sensitivity over that obtained when the sites have H-masers, for coherence losses of 20%-10%, respectively. Maximum benefits are to be expected by using co-located Water Vapor Radiometers for atmospheric correction. In this case, we estimate a 60%-120% increase in sensitivity over the H-maser at 350 GHz.

VLBI observations of the nuclei of a mixed sample of bright galaxies and quasars at 327 MHz

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ananthakrishnan, S.; Kulkarni, V.K.

1989-01-01

The first VLBI observations using the Ooty telescope are presented. An array consisting of telescopes at Ooty (India), Crimea (USSR), Torun (Poland), Westerbork (Netherlands) and Jodrell Bank (United Kingdom) was operated in 1983 December at a frequency of 327 MHz. Nearby galaxies, compact quasars and SS433 were observed in this pilot experiment. Most of the galaxies were found to be well resolved. The structure of SS433 (visible only on the shortest baseline) is consistent with that obtained in previous high-frequency VLBI work. The visibilities of the compact quasars indicate that large-scale scattering may be taking place in the interplanetary medium. (author)

First mm-VLBI Observations between the TRAO 14-m and the NRO 45-m Telescopes: Observations of 86 GHz SiO Masers in VY Canis Majoris

Science.gov (United States)

Shibata, Katsunori M.; Chung, Hyung-Soo; Kameno, Seiji; Roh, Duk-Gyoo; Umemoto, Tomofumi; Kim, Kwang-Dong; Asada, Keiichi; Han, Seog-Tae; Mochizuki, Nanako; Cho, Se-Hyung; Sawada-Satoh, Satoko; Kim, Hyun-Goo; Bushimata, Takeshi; Minh, Young Chol; Miyaji, Takeshi; Kuno, Nario; Mikoshiba, Hiroshi; Sunada, Kazuyoshi; Inoue, Makoto; Kobayashi, Hideyuki

2004-06-01

We have made VLBI observations at 86GHz using a 1000-km baseline between Korea and Japan with successful detections of SiO v = 1, J = 2 - 1 maser emissions from VY CMa and Orion KL in 2001 June. This was the first VLBI result for this baseline and the first astronomical VLBI observation for the Korean telescope. Since then, we observed SiO v = 1, J = 2 - 1 maser emission in VY CMa in 2002 January and 2003 February and derived the distributions of the maser emissions. Our results show that the maser emissions extend over 2-4 stellar radii, and were within the inner radius of the dust shell. We observed other SiO maser sources and continuum sources, and 86-GHz continuum emissions were detected from three continuum sources. It was verified that this baseline has a performance comparable to the most sensitive baseline in the VLBA and the CMVA, and is capable of investigating the proper motions of maser features in circumstellar envelopes using monitoring observations.

Integration of Reference Frames Using VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Chopo; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has the unique potential to integrate the terrestrial and celestial reference frames through simultaneous estimation of positions and velocities of approx. 40 active VLBI stations and a similar number of stations/sites with sufficient historical data, the position and position stability of approx. 150 well-observed extragalactic radio sources and another approx. 500 sources distributed fairly uniformly on the sky, and the time series of the five parameters that specify the relative orientation of the two frames. The full realization of this potential is limited by a number of factors including the temporal and spatial distribution of the stations, uneven distribution of observations over the sources and the sky, variations in source structure, modeling of the solid/fluid Earth and troposphere, logistical restrictions on the daily observing network size, and differing strategies for optimizing analysis for TRF, for CRF and for EOP. The current status of separately optimized and integrated VLBI analysis will be discussed.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2014 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Baver, Karen D. (Editor); Behrend, Dirk (Editor); Armstrong, Kyla L. (Editor)

2015-01-01

IVS is an international collaboration of organizations which operate or support Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) components. The goals are: 1. To provide a service to support geodetic, geophysical and astrometric research and operational activities. 2. To promote research and development activities in all aspects of the geodetic and astrometric VLBI technique. 3. To interact with the community of users of VLBI products and to integrate VLBI into a global Earth observing system.

Two-Component Structure of the Radio Source 0014+813 from VLBI Observations within the CONT14 Program

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, O. A.; Lopez, Yu. R.

2018-03-01

We consider a method of reconstructing the structure delay of extended radio sources without constructing their radio images. The residuals derived after the adjustment of geodetic VLBI observations are used for this purpose. We show that the simplest model of a radio source consisting of two point components can be represented by four parameters (the angular separation of the components, the mutual orientation relative to the poleward direction, the flux-density ratio, and the spectral index difference) that are determined for each baseline of a multi-baseline VLBI network. The efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by estimating the coordinates of the radio source 0014+813 observed during the two-week CONT14 program organized by the International VLBI Service (IVS) in May 2014. Large systematic deviations have been detected in the residuals of the observations for the radio source 0014+813. The averaged characteristics of the radio structure of 0014+813 at a frequency of 8.4 GHz can be calculated from these deviations. Our modeling using four parameters has confirmed that the source consists of two components at an angular separation of 0.5 mas in the north-south direction. Using the structure delay when adjusting the CONT14 observations leads to a correction of the average declination estimate for the radio source 0014+813 by 0.070 mas.

Proceedings of the Sixth General Meeting of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, Dirk (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2010-01-01

This volume is the proceedings of the sixth General Meeting of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS), held in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, February 7-13, 2010. The contents of this volume also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/gm2010. The keynote of the sixth GM was the new perspectives of the next generation VLBI system under the theme "VLBI2010: From Vision to Reality". The goal of the meeting was to provide an interesting and informative program for a wide cross-section of IVS members, including station operators, program managers, and analysts. This volume contains 88 papers. All papers were edited by the editors for usage of the English language, form, and minor content-related issues.

Approaching the event horizon: 1.3mmλ VLBI of SgrA*

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doeleman, Sheperd

2008-01-01

Advances in VLBI instrumentation now allow wideband recording that significantly increases the sensitivity of short wavelength VLBI observations. Observations of the super-massive black hole candidate at the center of the Milky Way, SgrA*, with short wavelength VLBI reduces the scattering effects of the intervening interstellar medium, allowing observations with angular resolution comparable to the apparent size of the event horizon of the putative black hole. Observations in April 2007 at a wavelength of 1.3mm on a three station VLBI array have now confirmed structure in SgrA* on scales of just a few Schwarzschild radii. When modeled as a circular Gaussian, the fitted diameter of SgrA* is 37 μas (+16,-10; 3σ), which is smaller than the expected apparent size of the event horizon of the Galactic Center black hole. These observations demonstrate that mm/sub-mm VLBI is poised to open a new window onto the study of black hole physics via high angular resolution observations of the Galactic Center.

Detection of Intrinsic Source Structure at ∼3 Schwarzschild Radii with Millimeter-VLBI Observations of SAGITTARIUS A*

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Ru-Sen; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Roy, Alan L.; Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Johnson, Michael D.; Akiyama, Kazunori; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Alef, Walter; Asada, Keiichi; Beaudoin, Christopher; Bertarini, Alessandra; Blackburn, Lindy; Blundell, Ray; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Brinkerink, Christiaan; Broderick, Avery E.; Cappallo, Roger; Crew, Geoffrey B.; Dexter, Jason; Dexter, Matt; Falcke, Heino; Freund, Robert; Friberg, Per; Greer, Christopher H.; Gurwell, Mark A.; Ho, Paul T. P.; Honma, Mareki; Inoue, Makoto; Kim, Junhan; Lamb, James; Lindqvist, Michael; Macmahon, David; Marrone, Daniel P.; Martí-Vidal, Ivan; Menten, Karl M.; Moran, James M.; Nagar, Neil M.; Plambeck, Richard L.; Primiani, Rurik A.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Ros, Eduardo; Rottmann, Helge; SooHoo, Jason; Spilker, Justin; Stone, Jordan; Strittmatter, Peter; Tilanus, Remo P. J.; Titus, Michael; Vertatschitsch, Laura; Wagner, Jan; Weintroub, Jonathan; Wright, Melvyn; Young, Ken H.; Zensus, J. Anton; Ziurys, Lucy M.

2018-05-01

We report results from very long baseline interferometric (VLBI) observations of the supermassive black hole in the Galactic center, Sgr A*, at 1.3 mm (230 GHz). The observations were performed in 2013 March using six VLBI stations in Hawaii, California, Arizona, and Chile. Compared to earlier observations, the addition of the APEX telescope in Chile almost doubles the longest baseline length in the array, provides additional uv coverage in the N–S direction, and leads to a spatial resolution of ∼30 μas (∼3 Schwarzschild radii) for Sgr A*. The source is detected even at the longest baselines with visibility amplitudes of ∼4%–13% of the total flux density. We argue that such flux densities cannot result from interstellar refractive scattering alone, but indicate the presence of compact intrinsic source structure on scales of ∼3 Schwarzschild radii. The measured nonzero closure phases rule out point-symmetric emission. We discuss our results in the context of simple geometric models that capture the basic characteristics and brightness distributions of disk- and jet-dominated models and show that both can reproduce the observed data. Common to these models are the brightness asymmetry, the orientation, and characteristic sizes, which are comparable to the expected size of the black hole shadow. Future 1.3 mm VLBI observations with an expanded array and better sensitivity will allow more detailed imaging of the horizon-scale structure and bear the potential for a deep insight into the physical processes at the black hole boundary.

Search for Binary Black Hole Candidates from the VLBI Images of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2016-01-27

Jan 27, 2016 ... We have searched the core-jet pairs in the VLBI scales (< 1 kpc), from several VLBI catalogues, and found out 5 possible Binary Black Hole (BBH) candidates. We present here the search results and analyse the candidates preliminarily. We plan to study with multi-band VLBI observation. We also plan to ...

VLBI Technology Development at SHAO

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiuzhong; Shu, Fengchun; Xiang, Ying; Zhu, Renjie; Xu, Zhijun; Chen, Zhong; Zheng, Weimin; Luo, Jintao; Wu, Yajun

2010-01-01

VLBI technology development made significant progress at SHAO in the last few years. The development status of the Chinese DBBC, the software and FPGA-based correlators, and the new VLBI antenna, as well as VLBI applications are summarized in this paper.

Collaborative VLBI experiments with Radioastron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D.L.; Preston, R.A.; Jordan, J.F.; Linfield, R.P.

1987-01-01

The USSR is planning to launch a 10-m radio telescope into earth orbit for use in VLBI observations. This mission (Radioastron) will be the first opportunity for astronomically important VLBI experiments with baselines much longer than can be obtained between telescopes on the earth. This paper describes the potential scientific advantages of combining data from the orbiting telescope with data from some of the very sensitive radio telescopes in western Europe, Australia, Japan, and the U.S. The advantages of using NASA's Space Network telescopes to track the Radioastron spacecraft when it is not visible from Soviet tracking stations are considered

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

Mark III VLBI observations of the nucleus of M81 at 2.3 and 8.3 GHz

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartel, N.; Corey, B.E.; Shapiro, I.I.; Rogers, A.E.E.; Whitney, A.R.; Preston, R.A.

1982-01-01

The authors report here on simultaneous VLBI observations made with the Mark III system at 2.3 and 8.3 GHz. Observations on 14 and 16 March 1981 utilized the 100 m diameter telescope in Effelsberg, W. Germany (MPIR); the 43 m telescope at Green Bank, WV (NRAO); and the 40 m telescope near Big Pine, CA (OVRO). (Auth.)

EVIDENCE FOR LOW BLACK HOLE SPIN AND PHYSICALLY MOTIVATED ACCRETION MODELS FROM MILLIMETER-VLBI OBSERVATIONS OF SAGITTARIUS A*

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broderick, Avery E [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Fish, Vincent L; Doeleman, Sheperd S [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Haystack Observatory, Route 40, Westford, MA 01886 (United States); Loeb, Abraham [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard University, Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2011-07-10

Millimeter very long baseline interferometry (mm-VLBI) provides the novel capacity to probe the emission region of a handful of supermassive black holes on sub-horizon scales. For Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, this provides access to the region in the immediate vicinity of the horizon. Broderick et al. have already shown that by leveraging spectral and polarization information as well as accretion theory, it is possible to extract accretion-model parameters (including black hole spin) from mm-VLBI experiments containing only a handful of telescopes. Here we repeat this analysis with the most recent mm-VLBI data, considering a class of aligned, radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) models. We find that the combined data set rules out symmetric models for Sgr A*'s flux distribution at the 3.9{sigma} level, strongly favoring length-to-width ratios of roughly 2.4:1. More importantly, we find that physically motivated accretion flow models provide a significantly better fit to the mm-VLBI observations than phenomenological models, at the 2.9{sigma} level. This implies that not only is mm-VLBI presently capable of distinguishing between potential physical models for Sgr A*'s emission, but further that it is sensitive to the strong gravitational lensing associated with the propagation of photons near the black hole. Based upon this analysis we find that the most probable magnitude, viewing angle, and position angle for the black hole spin are a = 0.0{sup +0.64+0.86}, {theta}=68{sup o+5o+9o}{sub -20}{sup o}{sub -28}{sup o}, and {xi}=-52{sup o+17o+33o}{sub -15}{sup o}{sub -24}{sup o} east of north, where the errors quoted are the 1{sigma} and 2{sigma} uncertainties.

EVIDENCE FOR LOW BLACK HOLE SPIN AND PHYSICALLY MOTIVATED ACCRETION MODELS FROM MILLIMETER-VLBI OBSERVATIONS OF SAGITTARIUS A*

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broderick, Avery E.; Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Loeb, Abraham

2011-01-01

Millimeter very long baseline interferometry (mm-VLBI) provides the novel capacity to probe the emission region of a handful of supermassive black holes on sub-horizon scales. For Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, this provides access to the region in the immediate vicinity of the horizon. Broderick et al. have already shown that by leveraging spectral and polarization information as well as accretion theory, it is possible to extract accretion-model parameters (including black hole spin) from mm-VLBI experiments containing only a handful of telescopes. Here we repeat this analysis with the most recent mm-VLBI data, considering a class of aligned, radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) models. We find that the combined data set rules out symmetric models for Sgr A*'s flux distribution at the 3.9σ level, strongly favoring length-to-width ratios of roughly 2.4:1. More importantly, we find that physically motivated accretion flow models provide a significantly better fit to the mm-VLBI observations than phenomenological models, at the 2.9σ level. This implies that not only is mm-VLBI presently capable of distinguishing between potential physical models for Sgr A*'s emission, but further that it is sensitive to the strong gravitational lensing associated with the propagation of photons near the black hole. Based upon this analysis we find that the most probable magnitude, viewing angle, and position angle for the black hole spin are a = 0.0 +0.64+0.86 , θ=68 o+5 o +9 o -20 o -28 o , and ξ=-52 o+17 o +33 o -15 o -24 o east of north, where the errors quoted are the 1σ and 2σ uncertainties.

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

OpenAIRE

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

18 centimeter VLBI observations of the quasar NRAO 140 during and after a low-frequency outburst

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marscher, A.P.; Broderick, J.J.; Padrielli, L.; Bartel, N.; Romney, J.D.; Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Univ., Blacksburg; CNR, Istituto di Radioastronomia, Bologna, Italy; Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA; Natitonal Radio Astronomy Observatory, Charlottesville, VA)

1987-01-01

VLBI and spectra observations have been used to identify the specific site of a low-frequency outburst in the quasar NRAO 140. The properties of the low-frequency variability in the quasar are compared with the predictions of several models. The refractive scintillation model alone does not account for the source's properties. 32 references

VLBI OBSERVATIONS OF THE JET IN M 87 DURING THE VERY HIGH ENERGY {gamma}-RAY FLARE IN 2010 APRIL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hada, Kazuhiro; Giroletti, Marcello; Giovannini, Gabriele [INAF Istituto di Radioastronomia, via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Kino, Motoki; Nagai, Hiroshi [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Doi, Akihiro [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara 252-5210 (Japan); Hagiwara, Yoshiaki; Honma, Mareki; Kawaguchi, Noriyuki [Department of Astronomical Science, Graduate University for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI), 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

2012-11-20

We report on the detailed radio status of the M 87 jet during the very high energy (VHE) {gamma}-ray flaring event in 2010 April, obtained from high-resolution, multi-frequency, phase-referencing Very Long Baseline Array observations. We especially focus on the properties of the jet base (the radio core) and the peculiar knot HST-1, which are currently favored as the {gamma}-ray emitting sites. During the VHE flaring event, the HST-1 region remains stable in terms of its structure and flux density in the optically thin regime above 2 GHz, being consistent with no signs of enhanced activities reported at X-ray for this feature. The radio core shows an inverted spectrum at least up to 43 GHz during this event. Astrometry of the core position, which is specified as {approx}20 R {sub s} from the central engine in our previous study, shows that the core position is stable on a level of 4 R {sub s}. The core at 43 and 22 GHz tends to show slightly ({approx}10%) higher flux level near the date of the VHE flux peak compared with the epochs before/after the event. The size of the 43 GHz core is estimated to be {approx}17 R {sub s}, which is close to the size of the emitting region suggested from the observed timescale of rapid variability at VHE. These results tend to favor the scenario that the VHE {gamma}-ray flare in 2010 April is associated with the radio core.

Design of VLBI Array in South America

Science.gov (United States)

Carrara, E. A.; Abraham, Z.

1990-11-01

RESUMEN. Estudiamos la localizaci6n 6ptima de estaciones de \\ ras' en territorlo brasileno. Con una red VLBI de estaciones reales y ficti- cias simulamos observaciones. Se usan los datos generados de estps ex- perimentos para obtener Ia distribuci6n de brillo de radiofuentes fic- ticias por medlo de tecaicas de mapeo bIbrido. Se concluye que l mejor localizaci6n de estacionee'VLBI futuras, tomando en cuenta las estacio- nes de EUA y de Europa, se encuentra en el Norte-Noreste de razll. El analisis de los datos se hizo con los programas de CALTECH, los cuales estan instalados en una computadora VAX del Departamento de Astronomla del Instituto Astron6mico y Geoflsico de la Universidad de Sa"'o Paulo. ABSTRACT: In this work we study the optimum localization for future VLBI stations in the Brazilian territory. With a VLBI network of real and fictitious stations we make simulations of observations. The data generated in these experiments are used to obtain brightness distribution of a fictitious radio source by the hybrid mapping techniques. We conclude that the best localization of a future VLBI station taking into account the addition of US and European Stations, is roughly in North-Northeast sites in Brazil. The analysis of the data is made with the software of CALTECH, which is installed in the VAX computer of the Astronomy Department of Instituto e Geofisico - USP. Key `{` : INSTRUMENTS - INTERFEROMETRY

Uses of the ICRF and implications for future VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Chopo

2006-01-01

Since its inception on 1 Jan 1998, the fundamental ICRF has been set by the VLBI positions of 212 "defining" extragalactic radio sources. In all there are approx.3000 sources with usefully accurate (< few mas) positions consistent with the ICRF. The uses of the ICRF include fundamental astrometry, monitoring of Earth orientation, and spacecraft navigation. For fundamental astrometry, stability and accuracy are most important, and realizations at different frequencies must be in proper registration. However, there is no preferred frequency, and the GAIA mission has the potential for an optical ICRF with 500,000 objects at the 50 microarcsec level some time after the planned 2011 launch. The radio ICRF should be properly prepared for a transition to assure long term stability and consistency. Earth orientation monitoring requires objects attached to the solid Earth, and VLBI will continue to be the fundamental technique. For this purpose it is essential that the new VLBI stations contemplated in the VLBI20l0 report be capable of observing a sufficiently large and well-distributed set of stable sources, and identifying these sources is an on-going effort. Spacecraft navigation by differential VLBI is planned using the Ka-band telemetry signal, and work has begun towards an ICRF realization suitable for this purpose. The balancing of different needs related to the VLBI ICRF will be discussed.

Love numbers for the long-period tides estimated by VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Krásná, Hana; Böhm, Johannes; Haas, Rüdiger; Schuh, Harald

2013-04-01

Love and Shida numbers are proportionality factors characterizing the deformation of the anelastic Earth which arises as a response to external forces from the Moon and Sun. The increasing precision and quality of the Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements allow determining those parameters. In particular, the long history of the VLBI data enables the estimation of Love and Shida numbers at the low frequencies of the tidal waves including the periods from 14 days to 18.6 years. In this study we analyse 27 years of VLBI measurements (1984.0 - 2011.0) following the recent IERS Conventions 2010. In several global solutions, we estimate the complex Love and Shida numbers of the solid Earth tides for the main long-period tidal waves. Furthermore, we determine the Love and Shida numbers of the rotational deformation due to polar motion, the so-called pole tide. We also focus on station displacement where still some deficiencies in the long-period signal modelling can be seen.

Estimation of solid earth tidal parameters and FCN with VLBI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krásná, H.

2012-01-01

Measurements of a space-geodetic technique VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) are influenced by a variety of processes which have to be modelled and put as a priori information into the analysis of the space-geodetic data. The increasing accuracy of the VLBI measurements allows access to these parameters and provides possibilities to validate them directly from the measured data. The gravitational attraction of the Moon and the Sun causes deformation of the Earth's surface which can reach several decimetres in radial direction during a day. The displacement is a function of the so-called Love and Shida numbers. Due to the present accuracy of the VLBI measurements the parameters have to be specified as complex numbers, where the imaginary parts describe the anelasticity of the Earth's mantle. Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish between the single tides within the various frequency bands. In this thesis, complex Love and Shida numbers of twelve diurnal and five long-period tides included in the solid Earth tidal displacement modelling are estimated directly from the 27 years of VLBI measurements (1984.0 - 2011.0). In this work, the period of the Free Core Nutation (FCN) is estimated which shows up in the frequency dependent solid Earth tidal displacement as well as in a nutation model describing the motion of the Earth's axis in space. The FCN period in both models is treated as a single parameter and it is estimated in a rigorous global adjustment of the VLBI data. The obtained value of -431.18 ± 0.10 sidereal days differs slightly from the conventional value -431.39 sidereal days given in IERS Conventions 2010. An empirical FCN model based on variable amplitude and phase is determined, whose parameters are estimated in yearly steps directly within VLBI global solutions. (author) [de

Single-dish and VLBI observations of Cygnus X-3 during the 2016 giant flare episode

Science.gov (United States)

Egron, E.; Pellizzoni, A.; Giroletti, M.; Righini, S.; Stagni, M.; Orlati, A.; Migoni, C.; Melis, A.; Concu, R.; Barbas, L.; Buttaccio, S.; Cassaro, P.; De Vicente, P.; Gawroński, M. P.; Lindqvist, M.; Maccaferri, G.; Stanghellini, C.; Wolak, P.; Yang, J.; Navarrini, A.; Loru, S.; Pilia, M.; Bachetti, M.; Iacolina, M. N.; Buttu, M.; Corbel, S.; Rodriguez, J.; Markoff, S.; Wilms, J.; Pottschmidt, K.; Cadolle Bel, M.; Kalemci, E.; Belloni, T.; Grinberg, V.; Marongiu, M.; Vargiu, G. P.; Trois, A.

2017-11-01

In 2016 September, the microquasar Cygnus X-3 underwent a giant radio flare, which was monitored for 6 d with the Medicina Radio Astronomical Station and the Sardinia Radio Telescope. Long observations were performed in order to follow the evolution of the flare on an hourly scale, covering six frequency ranges from 1.5 to 25.6 GHz. The radio emission reached a maximum of 13.2 ± 0.7 Jy at 7.2 GHz and 10 ± 1 Jy at 18.6 GHz. Rapid flux variations were observed at high radio frequencies at the peak of the flare, together with rapid evolution of the spectral index: α steepened from 0.3 to 0.6 (with Sν ∝ ν-α) within 5 h. This is the first time that such fast variations are observed, giving support to the evolution from optically thick to optically thin plasmons in expansion moving outward from the core. Based on the Italian network (Noto, Medicina and SRT) and extended to the European antennas (Torun, Yebes, Onsala), very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations were triggered at 22 GHz on five different occasions, four times prior to the giant flare, and once during its decay phase. Flux variations of 2 h duration were recorded during the first session. They correspond to a mini-flare that occurred close to the core 10 d before the onset of the giant flare. From the latest VLBI observation we infer that 4 d after the flare peak the jet emission was extended over 30 mas.

GPU Based Software Correlators - Perspectives for VLBI2010

Science.gov (United States)

Hobiger, Thomas; Kimura, Moritaka; Takefuji, Kazuhiro; Oyama, Tomoaki; Koyama, Yasuhiro; Kondo, Tetsuro; Gotoh, Tadahiro; Amagai, Jun

2010-01-01

Caused by historical separation and driven by the requirements of the PC gaming industry, Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) have evolved to massive parallel processing systems which entered the area of non-graphic related applications. Although a single processing core on the GPU is much slower and provides less functionality than its counterpart on the CPU, the huge number of these small processing entities outperforms the classical processors when the application can be parallelized. Thus, in recent years various radio astronomical projects have started to make use of this technology either to realize the correlator on this platform or to establish the post-processing pipeline with GPUs. Therefore, the feasibility of GPUs as a choice for a VLBI correlator is being investigated, including pros and cons of this technology. Additionally, a GPU based software correlator will be reviewed with respect to energy consumption/GFlop/sec and cost/GFlop/sec.

Using TDRSS as an orbiting VLBI observatory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ulvestad, J.S.

1987-01-01

The procedures and results of experimental VLBI astronomical observations performed using TDRSE, the first deployed satellite of the NASA TDRSS, as one of the network telescopes are reviewed. The other two elements of the VLBI network were the high-sensitivity 64-m antennas of the NASA DSN in Australia and of ISAS in Japan, with a 25-m Japanese antenna used to check their performance. The E configuration of the Mark III recording system at White Sands was used to record seven contiguous 2-MHz channels centered at 2.27799 GHz during five 3-h periods in July-August 1986. Although satellite pointing failures and ground-station problems limited the number of useful observations to six, interferometric fringes of the sources were obtained in all of these observations, demonstrating the feasibility of the approach. 6 references

Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software (VieVS) for Geodesy and Astrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, Johannes; Böhm, Sigrid; Boisits, Janina; Girdiuk, Anastasiia; Gruber, Jakob; Hellerschmied, Andreas; Krásná, Hana; Landskron, Daniel; Madzak, Matthias; Mayer, David; McCallum, Jamie; McCallum, Lucia; Schartner, Matthias; Teke, Kamil

2018-04-01

The Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software (VieVS) is state-of-the-art Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) analysis software for geodesy and astrometry. VieVS has been developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien) since 2008, where it is used for research purposes and for teaching space geodetic techniques. In the past decade, it has been successfully applied on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations for the determination of celestial and terrestrial reference frames as well as for the estimation of celestial pole offsets, universal Time (UT1-UTC), and polar motion based on least-squares adjustment. Furthermore, VieVS is equipped with tools for scheduling and simulating VLBI observations to extragalactic radio sources as well as to satellites and spacecraft, features which proved to be very useful for a variety of applications. VieVS is now available as version 3.0 and we do provide the software to all interested persons and institutions. A wiki with more information about VieVS is available at http://vievswiki.geo.tuwien.ac.at/.

Refined discrete and empirical horizontal gradients in VLBI analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Landskron, Daniel; Böhm, Johannes

2018-02-01

Missing or incorrect consideration of azimuthal asymmetry of troposphere delays is a considerable error source in space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) or Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). So-called horizontal troposphere gradients are generally utilized for modeling such azimuthal variations and are particularly required for observations at low elevation angles. Apart from estimating the gradients within the data analysis, which has become common practice in space geodetic techniques, there is also the possibility to determine the gradients beforehand from different data sources than the actual observations. Using ray-tracing through Numerical Weather Models (NWMs), we determined discrete gradient values referred to as GRAD for VLBI observations, based on the standard gradient model by Chen and Herring (J Geophys Res 102(B9):20489-20502, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB01739) and also for new, higher-order gradient models. These gradients are produced on the same data basis as the Vienna Mapping Functions 3 (VMF3) (Landskron and Böhm in J Geod, 2017.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-017-1066-2), so they can also be regarded as the VMF3 gradients as they are fully consistent with each other. From VLBI analyses of the Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software (VieVS), it becomes evident that baseline length repeatabilities (BLRs) are improved on average by 5% when using a priori gradients GRAD instead of estimating the gradients. The reason for this improvement is that the gradient estimation yields poor results for VLBI sessions with a small number of observations, while the GRAD a priori gradients are unaffected from this. We also developed a new empirical gradient model applicable for any time and location on Earth, which is included in the Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model. Although being able to describe only the systematic component of azimuthal asymmetry and no short-term variations at all, even these

Meter-wavelength VLBI. III. Pulsars

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vandenberg, N.R.; Clark, T.A.; Clark, W.C.; Erickson, W.C.; Resch, G.M.; Broderick, J.J.

1976-01-01

The results and analysis of observations of pulsars, especially the Crab Nebula pulsar, taken during a series of meter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiments are discussed. Based on a crude 144 MHz visibility curve which is consistent with a Gaussian brightness distribution, the measured visibilities at 196, 111, and 74 MHz were interpreted to yield apparent angular diameters (at half-power) of 0 .03 +- 0 .01, 0 .07 +- 0 .01, and 0 .18 +- 0 .01, respectively. These sizes scale approximately as wavelength-squared, and the 74 MHz size agrees with recent observations using interplanetary scintillation techniques.The VLBI-measured total flux densities lie on the extrapolation from higher frequencies of the pulsing flux densities. Variations in the total flux density up to 25 percent were observed. A lack of fine structure other than the pulsar in the nebula is indicated by our simple visibility curves. The pulse shapes observed with the interferometer are similar to single-dish measurements at 196 MHz but reveal a steady, nonpulsing component at 111 MHz. The ratio of pulsing to total power was approximately equal to one-half but varied with time. No pulsing power was detected at 74 MHz. It was found that four strong, low-dispersion pulsars were only slightly resolved

Postglacial Rebound from VLBI Geodesy: On Establishing Vertical Reference

Science.gov (United States)

Argus, Donald F.

1996-01-01

Difficulty in establishing a reference frame fixed to the earth's interior complicates the measurement of the vertical (radial) motions of the surface. I propose that a useful reference frame for vertical motions is that found by minimizing differences between vertical motions observed with VLBI [Ma and Ryan] and predictions from postglacial rebound predictions [Peltier]. The optimal translation of the geocenter is 1.7mm/year toward 36degN, 111degE when determined from the motions of 10 VLBI sites. This translation gives a better fit of observations to predictions than does the VLBI reference frame used by Ma and Ryan, but the improvement is statistically insignificant. The root mean square of differences decreases 20% to 0.73 mm/yr and the correlation coefficient increases from 0.76 to 0.87. Postglacial rebound is evident in the uplift of points in Sweden and Ontario that were beneath the ancient ice sheets of Fennoscandia and Canada, and in the subsidence of points in the northeastern U.S., Germany, and Alaska that were around the periphery of the ancient ice sheets.

VLBI and GPS-based Time-Transfer Using CONT08 Data

Science.gov (United States)

Rieck, Carsten; Haas, Ruediger; Jaldehag, Kenneth; Jahansson, Jan

2010-01-01

One important prerequisite for geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is the use of frequency standards with excellent short term stability. This makes VLBI stations, which are often co-located with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiving stations, interesting for studies of time- and frequency-transfer techniques. We present an assessment of VLBI time-transfer based on the data of the two week long consecutive IVS CONT08 VLBI campaign by using GPS Carrier Phase (GPSCP). CONT08 was a 15 day long campaign in August 2008 that involved eleven VLBI stations on five continents. For CONT08 we estimated the worst case VLBI frequency link stability between the stations of Onsala and Wettzell to 1e-15 at one day. Comparisons with GPSCP confirm the VLBI results. We also identify time-transfer related challenges of the VLBI technique as used today.

The African VLBI network project

Science.gov (United States)

Loots, Anita

2015-01-01

The AVN is one of the most significant vehicles through which capacity development in Africa for SKA participation will be realized. It is a forerunner to the long baseline Phase 2 component of the mid-frequency SKA. Besides the 26m HartRAO telescope in South Africa, Ghana is expected to be the first to establish a VLBI-capable telescope through conversion of a redundant 32m telecommunications system near Accra. The most widely used receivers in the EVN are L-band and C-band (5 GHz). L-band is divided into a low band around the hydrogen (HI) line frequency of 1420 MHz, and a high band covering the hydroxyl line frequencies of 1612-1720 MHz. The high band is much more commonly used for VLBI as it provides more bandwidth. For the AVN, the methanol maser line at 6668 MHz is a key target for the initial receiver and the related 12178MHz methanol maser line also seen in star-forming regions a potential future Ku-band receiver. In the potential future band around 22GHz(K-band), water masers in star-forming regions and meg-maser galaxies at 22.235 GHz are targets, as are other radio continuum sources such as AGNs. The AVN system will include 5GHz and 6.668GHz receiver systems with recommendation to partner countries that the first upgrade should be L-band receivers. The original satellite telecommunications feed horns cover 3.8 - 6.4 GHz and should work at 5 GHz and operation at 6.668 GHz for the methanol maser is yet to be verified. The first light science will be conducted in the 6.7 GHz methanol maser band. Telescopes developed for the AVN will initially join other global networks for VLBI. When at least four VLBI-capable telescopes are operational on the continent, it will be possible to initiate stand-alone AVN VLBI. Each country where an AVN telescope becomes operational will have its own single-dish observing program. Capacity building to run an observatory includes the establishment of competent core essential observatory staff in partner countries who can train

MARBLE (Multiple Antenna Radio-interferometry for Baseline Length Evaluation): Development of a Compact VLBI System for Calibrating GNSS and Electronic Distance Measurement Devices

Science.gov (United States)

Ichikawa, R.; Ishii, A.; Takiguchi, H.; Kimura, M.; Sekido, M.; Takefuji, K.; Ujihara, H.; Hanado, Y.; Koyama, Y.; Kondo, T.; Kurihara, S.; Kokado, K.; Kawabata, R.; Nozawa, K.; Mukai, Y.; Kuroda, J.; Ishihara, M.; Matsuzaka, S.

2012-12-01

We are developing a compact VLBI system with a 1.6-m diameter aperture dish in order to provide reference baseline lengths for calibration. The reference baselines are used to validate surveying instruments such as GPS and EDM and is maintained by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI). The compact VLBI system will be installed at both ends of the reference baseline. Since the system is not sensitive enough to detect fringes between the two small dishes, we have designed a new observation concept including one large dish station. We can detect two group delays between each compact VLBI system and the large dish station based on conventional VLBI measurement. A group delay between the two compact dishes can be indirectly calculated using a simple equation. We named the idea "Multiple Antenna Radio-interferometry for Baseline Length Evaluation", or MARBLE system. The compact VLBI system is easy transportable and consists of the compact dish, a new wide-band front-end system, azimuth and elevation drive units, an IF down-converter unit, an antenna control unit (ACU), a counterweight, and a monument pillar. Each drive unit is equipped with a zero-backlash harmonic drive gearing component. A monument pillar is designed to mount typical geodetic GNSS antennas easily and an offset between the GNSS antenna reference point. The location of the azimuth-elevation crossing point of the VLBI system is precisely determined with an uncertainty of less than 0.2 mm. We have carried out seven geodetic VLBI experiments on the Kashima-Tsukuba baseline (about 54 km) using the two prototypes of the compact VLBI system between December 2009 and December 2010. The average baseline length and repeatability of the experiments is 54184874.0 ± 2.4 mm. The results are well consistent with those obtained by GPS measurements. In addition, we are now planning to use the compact VLBI system for precise time and frequency comparison between separated locations.

Positioning Reduction of Deep Space Probes Based on VLBI Tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Qiao, S. B.

2011-11-01

In the background of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Project and the Yinghuo Project, through theoretical analysis, algorithm study, software development, data simulation, real data processing and so on, the positioning reductions of the European lunar satellite Smart-1 and Mars Express (MEX) satellite, as well as the Chinese Chang'e-1 (CE-1) and Chang'e-2 (CE-2) satellites are accomplished by using VLBI and USB tracking data in this dissertation. The progress is made in various aspects including the development of theoretical model, the construction of observation equation, the analysis of the condition of normal equation, the selection and determination of the constraint, the analysis of data simulation, the detection of outliers in observations, the maintenance of the stability of the solution of parameters, the development of the practical software system, the processing of the real tracking data and so on. The details of the research progress in this dissertation are written as follows: (1) The algorithm is analyzed concerning the positioning reduction of the deep spacecraft based on VLBI tracking data. Through data simulation, it is analyzed for the effects of the bias in predicted orbit, the white noises and systematic errors in VLBI delays, and USB ranges on the positioning reduction of spacecraft. Results show that it is preferable to suppress the dispersion of positioning data points by applying the constraint of geocentric distance of spacecraft when there are only VLBI tracking data. The positioning solution is a biased estimate via observations of three VLBI stations. For the case of four tracking stations, the uncertainty of the constraint should be in accordance with the bias in the predicted orbit. White noises in delays and ranges mainly result in dispersion of the sequence of positioning data points. If there is the systematic error of observations, the systematic offset of the positioning results is caused, and there are trend jumps in the shape of

The effect of meteorological data on atmospheric pressure loading corrections in VLBI data analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Balidakis, Kyriakos; Glaser, Susanne; Karbon, Maria; Soja, Benedikt; Nilsson, Tobias; Lu, Cuixian; Anderson, James; Liu, Li; Andres Mora-Diaz, Julian; Raposo-Pulido, Virginia; Xu, Minghui; Heinkelmann, Robert; Schuh, Harald

2015-04-01

Earth's crustal deformation is a manifestation of numerous geophysical processes, which entail the atmosphere and ocean general circulation and tidal attraction, climate change, and the hydrological circle. The present study deals with the elastic deformations induced by atmospheric pressure variations. At geodetic sites, APL (Atmospheric Pressure Loading) results in displacements covering a wide range of temporal scales which is undesirable when rigorous geodetic/geophysical analysis is intended. Hence, it is of paramount importance that the APL signal are removed at the observation level in the space geodetic data analysis. In this study, elastic non-tidal components of loading displacements were calculated in the local topocentric frame for all VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) stations with respect to the center-of-figure of the solid Earth surface and the center-of-mass of the total Earth system. The response of the Earth to the load variation at the surface was computed by convolving Farrell Green's function with the homogenized in situ surface pressure observations (in the time span 1979-2014) after the subtraction of the reference pressure and the S1, S2 and S3 thermal tidal signals. The reference pressure was calculated through a hypsometric adjustment of the absolute pressure level determined from World Meteorological Organization stations in the vicinity of each VLBI observatory. The tidal contribution was calculated following the 2010 International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service conventions. Afterwards, this approach was implemented into the VLBI software VieVS@GFZ and the entirety of available VLBI sessions was analyzed. We rationalize our new approach on the basis that the potential error budget is substantially reduced, since several common errors are not applicable in our approach, e.g. those due to the finite resolution of NWM (Numerical Weather Models), the accuracy of the orography model necessary for adjusting the former as

1.3 mm WAVELENGTH VLBI OF SAGITTARIUS A*: DETECTION OF TIME-VARIABLE EMISSION ON EVENT HORIZON SCALES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Beaudoin, Christopher; Bolin, David E.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Blundell, Ray; Gurwell, Mark A.; Moran, James M.; Primiani, Rurik; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Plambeck, Richard; Chamberlin, Richard; Freund, Robert; Friberg, Per; Honma, Mareki; Oyama, Tomoaki; Inoue, Makoto; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Lamb, James; Marrone, Daniel P.

2011-01-01

Sagittarius A*, the ∼4 x 10 6 M sun black hole candidate at the Galactic center, can be studied on Schwarzschild radius scales with (sub)millimeter wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). We report on 1.3 mm wavelength observations of Sgr A* using a VLBI array consisting of the JCMT on Mauna Kea, the Arizona Radio Observatory's Submillimeter Telescope on Mt. Graham in Arizona, and two telescopes of the CARMA array at Cedar Flat in California. Both Sgr A* and the quasar calibrator 1924-292 were observed over three consecutive nights, and both sources were clearly detected on all baselines. For the first time, we are able to extract 1.3 mm VLBI interferometer phase information on Sgr A* through measurement of closure phase on the triangle of baselines. On the third night of observing, the correlated flux density of Sgr A* on all VLBI baselines increased relative to the first two nights, providing strong evidence for time-variable change on scales of a few Schwarzschild radii. These results suggest that future VLBI observations with greater sensitivity and additional baselines will play a valuable role in determining the structure of emission near the event horizon of Sgr A*.

A Global Terrestrial Reference Frame from simulated VLBI and SLR data in view of GGOS

Science.gov (United States)

Glaser, Susanne; König, Rolf; Ampatzidis, Dimitrios; Nilsson, Tobias; Heinkelmann, Robert; Flechtner, Frank; Schuh, Harald

2017-07-01

In this study, we assess the impact of two combination strategies, namely local ties (LT) and global ties (GT), on the datum realization of Global Terrestrial Reference Frames in view of the Global Geodetic Observing System requiring 1 mm-accuracy. Simulated Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data over a 7 year time span was used. The LT results show that the geodetic datum can be best transferred if the precision of the LT is at least 1 mm. Investigating different numbers of LT, the lack of co-located sites on the southern hemisphere is evidenced by differences of 9 mm in translation and rotation compared to the solution using all available LT. For the GT, the combination applying all Earth rotation parameters (ERP), such as pole coordinates and UT1-UTC, indicates that the rotation around the Z axis cannot be adequately transferred from VLBI to SLR within the combination. Applying exclusively the pole coordinates as GT, we show that the datum can be transferred with mm-accuracy within the combination. Furthermore, adding artificial stations in Tahiti and Nigeria to the current VLBI network results in an improvement in station positions by 13 and 12%, respectively, and in ERP by 17 and 11%, respectively. Extending to every day VLBI observations leads to 65% better ERP estimates compared to usual twice-weekly VLBI observations.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry. Delivering high-quality products and embarking on observations of the next generation

Science.gov (United States)

Nothnagel, A.; Artz, T.; Behrend, D.; Malkin, Z.

2017-07-01

The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) regularly produces high-quality Earth orientation parameters from observing sessions employing extensive networks or individual baselines. The master schedule is designed according to the telescope days committed by the stations and by the need for dense sampling of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP). In the pre-2011 era, the network constellations with their number of telescopes participating were limited by the playback and baseline capabilities of the hardware (Mark4) correlators. This limitation was overcome by the advent of software correlators, which can now accommodate many more playback units in a flexible configuration. In this paper, we describe the current operations of the IVS with special emphasis on the quality of the polar motion results since these are the only EOP components which can be validated against independent benchmarks. The polar motion results provided by the IVS have improved continuously over the years, now providing an agreement with IGS results at the level of 20-25 μas in a WRMS sense. At the end of the paper, an outlook is given for the realization of the VLBI Global Observing System.

Status and Prospects for Combined GPS LOD and VLBI UT1 Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Senior, K.; Kouba, J.; Ray, J.

2010-01-01

A Kalman filter was developed to combine VLBI estimates of UT1-TAI with biased length of day (LOD) estimates from GPS. The VLBI results are the analyses of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center group from 24-hr multi-station observing sessions several times per week and the nearly daily 1-hr single-baseline sessions. Daily GPS LOD estimates from the International GNSS Service (IGS) are combined with the VLBI UT1-TAI by modeling the natural excitation of LOD as the integral of a white noise process (i.e., as a random walk) and the UT1 variations as the integration of LOD, similar to the method described by Morabito et al. (1988). To account for GPS technique errors, which express themselves mostly as temporally correlated biases in the LOD measurements, a Gauss-Markov model has been added to assimilate the IGS data, together with a fortnightly sinusoidal term to capture errors in the IGS treatments of tidal effects. Evaluated against independent atmospheric and oceanic axial angular momentum (AAM + OAM) excitations and compared to other UT1/LOD combinations, ours performs best overall in terms of lowest RMS residual and highest correlation with (AAM + OAM) over sliding intervals down to 3 d. The IERS 05C04 and Bulletin A combinations show strong high-frequency smoothing and other problems. Until modified, the JPL SPACE series suffered in the high frequencies from not including any GPS-based LODs. We find, surprisingly, that further improvements are possible in the Kalman filter combination by selective rejection of some VLBI data. The best combined results are obtained by excluding all the 1-hr single-baseline UT1 data as well as those 24-hr UT1 measurements with formal errors greater than 5 μs (about 18% of the multi-baseline sessions). A rescaling of the VLBI formal errors, rather than rejection, was not an effective strategy. These results suggest that the UT1 errors of the 1-hr and weaker 24-hr VLBI sessions are non-Gaussian and more heterogeneous than expected

ostglacial rebound from VLBI Geodesy: On Establishing Vertical Reference

Science.gov (United States)

Argus, Donald .

1996-01-01

I propose that a useful reference frame for vertical motions is that found by minimizing differences between vertical motions observed with VLBI [Ma and Ryan, 1995] and predictions from postglacial rebound predictions [Peltier, 1995].

Astrometry VLBI in Space (AVS)

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Li-Jen; Reyes, George

1995-01-01

This paper describes a proposal for a new space radio astronomy mission for astrometry using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) called Astrometry VLBI in Space (AVS). The ultimate goals of AVS are improving the accuracy of radio astrometry measurements to the microarcsecond level in one epoch of measurements and improving the accuracy of the transformation between the inertial radio and optical coordinate reference frames. This study will also assess the impact of this mission on astrophysics astrometry and geophysics.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2004 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, Dirk (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2005-01-01

Contents include the following: Combination Studies using the Cont02 Campaign. Coordinating Center report. Analysis coordinator report. Network coordinator report. IVS Technology coordinator report. Algonquin Radio observatory. Fortaleza Station report for 2004. Gilmore Creek Geophysical Observatory. Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical observatory. Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory (HartRAO). Hbart, Mt Pleasant, station report for 2004. Kashima 34m Radio Telescope. Kashima and Koganei 11-m VLBI Stations. Kokee Park Geophysical Observatory. Matera GGS VLBI Station. The Medicina Station status report. Report of the Mizusawa 10m Telescope. Noto Station Activity. NYAL Ny-Alesund 20 metre Antenna. German Antarctic receiving Station (GARS) O'higgins. The IVS network station Onsala space Observatory. Sheshan VLBI Station report for 2004. 10 Years of Geodetic Experiments at the Simeiz VLBI Station. Svetloe RAdio Astronomical Observatory. JARE Syowa Station 11-m Antenna, Antarctica. Geodetic Observatory TIGO in Concepcion. Tsukuba 32-m VLBI Station. Nanshan VLBI Station Report. Westford Antenna. Fundamental-station Wettzell 20m Radiotelescope. Observatorio Astroonomico Nacional Yebes. Yellowknife Observatory. The Bonn Geodetic VLBI Operation Center. CORE Operation Center Report. U.S. Naval Observatory Operation Center. The Bonn Astro/Geo Mark IV Correlator.

DSN Beowulf Cluster-Based VLBI Correlator

Science.gov (United States)

Rogstad, Stephen P.; Jongeling, Andre P.; Finley, Susan G.; White, Leslie A.; Lanyi, Gabor E.; Clark, John E.; Goodhart, Charles E.

2009-01-01

The NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) requires a broadband VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) correlator to process data routinely taken as part of the VLBI source Catalogue Maintenance and Enhancement task (CAT M&E) and the Time and Earth Motion Precision Observations task (TEMPO). The data provided by these measurements are a crucial ingredient in the formation of precision deep-space navigation models. In addition, a VLBI correlator is needed to provide support for other VLBI related activities for both internal and external customers. The JPL VLBI Correlator (JVC) was designed, developed, and delivered to the DSN as a successor to the legacy Block II Correlator. The JVC is a full-capability VLBI correlator that uses software processes running on multiple computers to cross-correlate two-antenna broadband noise data. Components of this new system (see Figure 1) consist of Linux PCs integrated into a Beowulf Cluster, an existing Mark5 data storage system, a RAID array, an existing software correlator package (SoftC) originally developed for Delta DOR Navigation processing, and various custom- developed software processes and scripts. Parallel processing on the JVC is achieved by assigning slave nodes of the Beowulf cluster to process separate scans in parallel until all scans have been processed. Due to the single stream sequential playback of the Mark5 data, some ramp-up time is required before all nodes can have access to required scan data. Core functions of each processing step are accomplished using optimized C programs. The coordination and execution of these programs across the cluster is accomplished using Pearl scripts, PostgreSQL commands, and a handful of miscellaneous system utilities. Mark5 data modules are loaded on Mark5 Data systems playback units, one per station. Data processing is started when the operator scans the Mark5 systems and runs a script that reads various configuration files and then creates an experiment-dependent status database

VLBI detection of the internal shocks in nova V959 Mon

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J.; Paragi, Z.; O'Brien, T.; Chomiuk, L.; Linford, J. D.

V959 Mon is a classical nova detected at GeV gamma-ray wavelengths on 2012 June 19. While classical novae are now routinely detected in gamma-rays, the origin of the shocks that produce relativistic particles has remained unknown. We carried out electronic European VLBI Network (e-EVN) observations that revealed a pair of compact synchrotron emission features in V959 Mon on 2012 Sep 18. Since synchrotron emission requires strong shocks as well, we identify these features as the location where the gamma rays were produced. We also detected the extended ejecta in the follow-up EVN observations. They expanded much faster in East-West direction than the compact knots detected in the aforementioned e-EVN measurements. By comparing the VLBI results with lower resolution images obtained using e-MERLIN and the VLA - as reported by Chomiuk et al. (2014) - it appears that 1) influenced by the binary orbit, the nova ejecta was highly asymmetric with a dense and slow outflow in the equatorial plane and low-density and faster ejecta along the poles; and 2) the VLBI knots were related to shocks formed in the interaction region of these outflows.

DETECTING FLARING STRUCTURES IN SAGITTARIUS A* WITH HIGH-FREQUENCY VLBI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Fish, Vincent L.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Broderick, Avery E.; Loeb, Abraham

2009-01-01

The super-massive black hole candidate, Sagittarius A*, exhibits variability from radio to X-ray wavelengths on timescales that correspond to <10 Schwarzschild radii. We survey the potential of millimeter wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to detect and constrain time-variable structures that could give rise to such variations, focusing on a model in which an orbiting hot spot is embedded in an accretion disk. Nonimaging algorithms are developed that use interferometric closure quantities to test for periodicity, and applied to an ensemble of hot spot models that sample a range of parameter space. We find that structural periodicity in a wide range of cases can be detected on most potential VLBI arrays using modern VLBI instrumentation. Future enhancements of millimeter/submillimeter VLBI arrays including phased-array processors to aggregate VLBI station collecting area, increased bandwidth recording, and addition of new VLBI sites all significantly aid periodicity detection. The methods described herein can be applied to other models of Sagittarius A*, including jet outflows and magnetohydrodynamic accretion simulations.

CDDIS_VLBI_products_positions

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Station positions and velocity solutions in Software INdependent EXchange (SINEX) format derived from analysis of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data....

An Experiment on Radio Location of Objects in the Near-Earth Space with VLBI in 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nechaeva M.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available An experiment on radar location of space debris objects using of the method of VLBI was carried out in April, 2012. The radar VLBI experiment consisted in irradiation of some space debris objects (4 rocket stages and 5 inactive satellites with a signal of the transmitter with RT-70 in Evpatoria, Ukraine. Reflected signals were received by a complex of radio telescopes in the VLBI mode. The following VLBI stations took part in the observations: Ventspils (RT-32, Urumqi (RT-25, Medicina (RT-32 and Simeiz (RT-22. The experiment included measurements of the Doppler frequency shift and the delay for orbit refining, and measurements of the rotation period and sizes of objects by the amplitudes of output interferometer signals. The cross-correlation of VLBI-data is performed at a correlator NIRFI-4 of Radiophysical Research Institute (Nizhny Novgorod. Preliminary data processing resulted in the series of Doppler frequency shifts, which comprised the information on radial velocities of the objects. Some results of the experiment are presented.

Electron content near the lunar surface using dual-frequency VLBI tracking data in a single lunar orbiter mission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Na; Ping, Jin-Song

2015-01-01

In VLBI observations of Vstar, a subsatellite of the Japanese lunar mission SELENE, there were opportunities for lunar grazing occultation when Vstar was very close to the limb of the Moon. This kind of chance made it possible to probe the thin plasma layer above the Moon's surface as a meaningful by-product of VLBI, by using the radio occultation method with coherent radio waves from the S/X bands. The dual-frequency measurements were carried out at Earth-based VLBI stations. In the line-of-sight direction between the satellite and the ground-based tracking station where VLBI measurements were made, the effects of the terrestrial ionosphere, interplanetary plasma and the thin lunar ionosphere mixed together in the combined observables of dual-frequency Doppler shift and phase shift. To separate the variation of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) near the surface of the Moon from the mixed signal, the influences of the terrestrial ionosphere and interplanetary plasma have been removed by using an extrapolation method based on a short-term trend. The lunar TEC is estimated from the dual-frequency observation for Vstar from UT 22:18 to UT 22:20 on 2008 June 28 at several tracking stations. The TEC results obtained from VLBI sites are identical, however, they are not as remarkable as the result obtained at the Usuda deep space tracking station. (paper)

Complex demodulation in VLBI estimation of high frequency Earth rotation components

Science.gov (United States)

Böhm, S.; Brzeziński, A.; Schuh, H.

2012-12-01

The spectrum of high frequency Earth rotation variations contains strong harmonic signal components mainly excited by ocean tides along with much weaker non-harmonic fluctuations driven by irregular processes like the diurnal thermal tides in the atmosphere and oceans. In order to properly investigate non-harmonic phenomena a representation in time domain is inevitable. We present a method, operating in time domain, which is easily applicable within Earth rotation estimation from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). It enables the determination of diurnal and subdiurnal variations, and is still effective with merely diurnal parameter sampling. The features of complex demodulation are used in an extended parameterization of polar motion and universal time which was implemented into a dedicated version of the Vienna VLBI Software VieVS. The functionality of the approach was evaluated by comparing amplitudes and phases of harmonic variations at tidal periods (diurnal/semidiurnal), derived from demodulated Earth rotation parameters (ERP), estimated from hourly resolved VLBI ERP time series and taken from a recently published VLBI ERP model to the terms of the conventional model for ocean tidal effects in Earth rotation recommended by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service (IERS). The three sets of tidal terms derived from VLBI observations extensively agree among each other within the three-sigma level of the demodulation approach, which is below 6 μas for polar motion and universal time. They also coincide in terms of differences to the IERS model, where significant deviations primarily for several major tidal terms are apparent. An additional spectral analysis of the as well estimated demodulated ERP series of the ter- and quarterdiurnal frequency bands did not reveal any significant signal structure. The complex demodulation applied in VLBI parameter estimation could be demonstrated a suitable procedure for the reliable reproduction of

DETECTING CHANGING POLARIZATION STRUCTURES IN SAGITTARIUS A* WITH HIGH FREQUENCY VLBI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Broderick, Avery E.; Loeb, Abraham

2009-01-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to 6 M sun black hole. In previous work, we demonstrated the potential for total-intensity (sub)millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to detect time-variable-and periodic-source structure changes in the Sgr A* black hole system using nonimaging analyses. Here, we extend this work to include full polarimetric VLBI observations. We simulate full-polarization (sub)millimeter VLBI data of Sgr A* using a hot spot model that is embedded within an accretion disk, with emphasis on nonimaging polarimetric data products that are robust against calibration errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

DETECTING CHANGING POLARIZATION STRUCTURES IN SAGITTARIUS A* WITH HIGH FREQUENCY VLBI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fish, Vincent L; Doeleman, Sheperd S; Rogers, Alan E. E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Haystack Observatory, Route 40, Westford, MA 01886 (United States); Broderick, Avery E [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Loeb, Abraham [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard University, Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2009-12-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to <10 Schwarzschild radii of the presumed 4 x 10{sup 6} M {sub sun} black hole. In previous work, we demonstrated the potential for total-intensity (sub)millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to detect time-variable-and periodic-source structure changes in the Sgr A* black hole system using nonimaging analyses. Here, we extend this work to include full polarimetric VLBI observations. We simulate full-polarization (sub)millimeter VLBI data of Sgr A* using a hot spot model that is embedded within an accretion disk, with emphasis on nonimaging polarimetric data products that are robust against calibration errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

POSSIBLE DETECTION OF APPARENT SUPERLUMINAL INWARD MOTION IN MARKARIAN 421 AFTER THE GIANT X-RAY FLARE IN 2010 FEBRUARY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niinuma, K. [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi 753-8511 (Japan); Kino, M.; Oyama, T. [Mizusawa VLBI Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Nagai, H. [ALMA-J Project, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Isobe, N. [Institute of Space and Astronautics, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara 252-5210 (Japan); Gabanyi, K. E. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Research Group for Physical Geodesy and Geodynamics, FOMI Satellite Geodetic Observatory Budapest, 1592 Budapest (Hungary); Hada, K. [INAF Istituto di Radioastronomia, via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Koyama, S. [Department of Astronomy, University of Tokyo, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8654 (Japan); Asada, K. [Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Fujisawa, K., E-mail: niinuma@yamaguchi-u.ac.jp [Research Institute for Time Studies, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi 753-8511 (Japan)

2012-11-10

We report on the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) follow-up observations using the Japanese VLBI Network array at 22 GHz for the largest X-ray flare of TeV blazar Mrk 421 that occurred in 2010 mid-February. The total of five epochs of observations were performed at intervals of about 20 days between 2010 March 7 and May 31. No newborn component associated with the flare was seen directly in the total intensity images obtained by our multi-epoch VLBI observations. However, one jet component located at {approx}1 mas northwest from the core was able to be identified, and its proper motion can be measured as -1.66 {+-} 0.46 mas yr{sup -1}, which corresponds to an apparent velocity of -3.48 {+-} 0.97c. Here, this negative velocity indicates that the jet component was apparently moving toward the core. As the most plausible explanation, we discuss that the apparent negative velocity was possibly caused by the ejection of a new component, which could not be resolved with our observations. In this case, the obtained Doppler factor of the new component is around 10-20, which is consistent with the ones typically estimated by model fittings of spectral energy distribution for this source.

THE APPLICATION OF MULTIVIEW METHODS FOR HIGH-PRECISION ASTROMETRIC SPACE VLBI AT LOW FREQUENCIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dodson, R.; Rioja, M.; Imai, H. [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, M468, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, Western Australia 6009 (Australia); Asaki, Y. [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuou, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Hong, X.-Y.; Shen, Z., E-mail: richard.dodson@icrar.org [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, CAS, 200030 Shanghai (China)

2013-06-15

High-precision astrometric space very long baseline interferometry (S-VLBI) at the low end of the conventional frequency range, i.e., 20 cm, is a requirement for a number of high-priority science goals. These are headlined by obtaining trigonometric parallax distances to pulsars in pulsar-black hole pairs and OH masers anywhere in the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. We propose a solution for the most difficult technical problems in S-VLBI by the MultiView approach where multiple sources, separated by several degrees on the sky, are observed simultaneously. We simulated a number of challenging S-VLBI configurations, with orbit errors up to 8 m in size and with ionospheric atmospheres consistent with poor conditions. In these simulations we performed MultiView analysis to achieve the required science goals. This approach removes the need for beam switching requiring a Control Moment Gyro, and the space and ground infrastructure required for high-quality orbit reconstruction of a space-based radio telescope. This will dramatically reduce the complexity of S-VLBI missions which implement the phase-referencing technique.

THE APPLICATION OF MULTIVIEW METHODS FOR HIGH-PRECISION ASTROMETRIC SPACE VLBI AT LOW FREQUENCIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodson, R.; Rioja, M.; Imai, H.; Asaki, Y.; Hong, X.-Y.; Shen, Z.

2013-01-01

High-precision astrometric space very long baseline interferometry (S-VLBI) at the low end of the conventional frequency range, i.e., 20 cm, is a requirement for a number of high-priority science goals. These are headlined by obtaining trigonometric parallax distances to pulsars in pulsar-black hole pairs and OH masers anywhere in the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. We propose a solution for the most difficult technical problems in S-VLBI by the MultiView approach where multiple sources, separated by several degrees on the sky, are observed simultaneously. We simulated a number of challenging S-VLBI configurations, with orbit errors up to 8 m in size and with ionospheric atmospheres consistent with poor conditions. In these simulations we performed MultiView analysis to achieve the required science goals. This approach removes the need for beam switching requiring a Control Moment Gyro, and the space and ground infrastructure required for high-quality orbit reconstruction of a space-based radio telescope. This will dramatically reduce the complexity of S-VLBI missions which implement the phase-referencing technique.

VLBI imaging of CTA 102

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wehrle, A.E.; Cohen, M.

1989-01-01

The object CTA 102, a low-frequency variable quasar, was observed with a VLBI Global Array in 1987.5 and 1988.5 at 5.0 GHz. The structure is complex, with three compact components along a line at PA = 157 deg, and several extended, ill-defined components east of the southernmost compact component. The components have no detectable relative motions, with mu less than 0.5 mas/yr along the main axis. This contrasts with the observation reported by Baath (1987), who found mu = 0.65 + or - 0.15 mas/yr at 932 MHz, which is exceptionally high. The new upper limit allows CTA 102 to be in the normal range of superluminal sources. 11 refs

Multifrequency radio VLBI observations of the superluminal low-frequency variable quasar NRAO 140

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marscher, A.P.; Broderick, J.J.

1985-01-01

VLBI maps of the quasar NRAO 140 at three wavelengths: 18, 6, and 2.8 cm are presented. The source consists of a jetlike structure delineated by a nearly colinear series of components which are progressively more compact toward the northwestern end of the source. The multifrequency observations make it possible to dissect accurately the spectrum of the source, which leads to an affirmation of the previously reported Compton problem and superluminal motion. The Compton problem requires relativistic motion with Doppler factor delta greater than 3.7. One of the components is separating from the core at a rate of 0.15 milliarcsec/yr, which translates to an apparent velocity between 4c and 13c, depending on the values of H(0) and q(0). The energy in relativistic electrons in one of the components far exceeds the energy in magnetic field, but the total energy requirement need not exceed approximately 10 to the 54th ergs. 27 references

The Potential for a Ka-band (32 GHz) Worldwide VLBI Network

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, C. S.; Bach, U.; Colomer, F.; Garcia-Miro, C.; Gomez-Gonzalez, J.; Gulyaev, S.; Horiuchi, S.; Ichikawa, R.; Kraus, A.; Kronschnabl, G.;

General Relativistic Theory of the VLBI Time Delay in the Gravitational Field of Moving Bodies

Science.gov (United States)

Kopeikin, Sergei

2003-01-01

The general relativistic theory of the gravitational VLBI experiment conducted on September 8, 2002 by Fomalont and Kopeikin is explained. Equations of radio waves (light) propagating from the quasar to the observer are integrated in the time-dependent gravitational field of the solar system by making use of either retarded or advanced solutions of the Einstein field equations. This mathematical technique separates explicitly the effects associated with the propagation of gravity from those associated with light in the integral expression for the relativistic VLBI time delay of light. We prove that the relativistic correction to the Shapiro time delay, discovered by Kopeikin (ApJ, 556, L1, 2001), changes sign if one retains direction of the light propagation but replaces the retarded for the advanced solution of the Einstein equations. Hence, this correction is associated with the propagation of gravity. The VLBI observation measured its speed, and that the retarded solution is the correct one.

Optimizing the African VLBI Network for Astronomy and Geodesy

Science.gov (United States)

de Witt, A.; Mayer, D.; MacLeod, G.; Combrinck, L.; Petrov, L.; Nickola, M.

2016-12-01

The African VLBI Network will be a pan-African network of radio telescopes comprised of converted redundant satellite Earth-station antennas and new purpose-built radio telescopes. The first of these antennas, in Ghana, is currently being converted to a radio telescope and current funding is estimated to permit the conversion of two more antennas in Africa. These antennas will initially be equipped with a 5-GHz and 6.7-GHz receiver and the next receiver likely to be fitted is a 1.4-1.7-GHz receiver. While it would be advantageous for the AVN antennas to be able to participate also in geodetic and astrometric VLBI observations, there is no funding currently for this. In this paper we re-visit the scientific justifications for the AVN in an attempt to optimize the AVN for each science case, both astronomical and geodetic.

The Tropospheric Products of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Heinkelmann, Robert; Schwatke, Christian

2010-01-01

The IVS runs two tropospheric products: The IVS tropospheric parameter rapid combination monitors the zenith wet delay (ZWD) and zenith total delay (ZTD) of the rapid turnaround sessions R1 and R4. Goal of the combination is the identification and the exclusion of outliers by comparison and the assessment of the precision of current VLBI solutions in terms of tropospheric parameters. The rapid combination is done on a weekly basis four weeks after the observation files are released on IVS Data Centers. Since tropospheric and geodetic parameters, such as vertical station components, can significantly correlate, the consistency of the ZTD can be a measure of the consistency of the corresponding TRF as well. The ZWD mainly rely on accurate atmospheric pressure data. Thus, besides estimation techniques, modeling and analyst s noise, ZWD reflects differences in the atmospheric pressure data applied to the VLBI analysis. The second product, called tropospheric parameter long-term combination, aims for an accurate determination of climatological signals, such as trends of the atmospheric water vapor observed by VLBI. Therefore, the long-term homogeneity of atmospheric pressure data plays a crucial role for this product. The paper reviews the methods applied and results achieved so far and describes the new maintenance through DGFI.

An Improved Empirical Harmonic Model of the Celestial Intermediate Pole Offsets from a Global VLBI Solution

Science.gov (United States)

Belda, Santiago; Heinkelmann, Robert; Ferrándiz, José M.; Karbon, Maria; Nilsson, Tobias; Schuh, Harald

2017-10-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is the only space geodetic technique capable of measuring all the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) accurately and simultaneously. Modeling the Earth's rotational motion in space within the stringent consistency goals of the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) makes VLBI observations essential for constraining the rotation theories. However, the inaccuracy of early VLBI data and the outdated products could cause non-compliance with these goals. In this paper, we perform a global VLBI analysis of sessions with different processing settings to determine a new set of empirical corrections to the precession offsets and rates, and to the amplitudes of a wide set of terms included in the IAU 2006/2000A precession-nutation theory. We discuss the results in terms of consistency, systematic errors, and physics of the Earth. We find that the largest improvements w.r.t. the values from IAU 2006/2000A precession-nutation theory are associated with the longest periods (e.g., 18.6-yr nutation). A statistical analysis of the residuals shows that the provided corrections attain an error reduction at the level of 15 μas. Additionally, including a Free Core Nutation (FCN) model into a priori Celestial Pole Offsets (CPOs) provides the lowest Weighted Root Mean Square (WRMS) of residuals. We show that the CPO estimates are quite insensitive to TRF choice, but slightly sensitive to the a priori EOP and the inclusion of different VLBI sessions. Finally, the remaining residuals reveal two apparent retrograde signals with periods of nearly 2069 and 1034 days.

Monitoring of Earth Rotation by VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Ma., Chopo; Macmillan, D. S.

2000-01-01

Monitoring Earth rotation with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has unique potential because of direct access to the Celestial Reference System (CRF and Terrestrial Reference System (TRF) and the feasibility of re-analyzing the entire data set. While formal precision of better than 0.045 mas for pole and 0.002 ms for UT 1 has been seen in the best 24-hr data, the accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) time series as a whole is subject to logistical, operational, analytical and conceptual constraints. The current issues related to the VLBI data set and the CORE program for greater time resolution such as analysis consistency, network jitter and reference frame stability will be discussed.

On an Allan variance approach to classify VLBI radio-sources on the basis of their astrometric stability

Science.gov (United States)

Gattano, C.; Lambert, S.; Bizouard, C.

2017-12-01

In the context of selecting sources defining the celestial reference frame, we compute astrometric time series of all VLBI radio-sources from observations in the International VLBI Service database. The time series are then analyzed with Allan variance in order to estimate the astrometric stability. From results, we establish a new classification that takes into account the whole multi-time scales information. The algorithm is flexible on the definition of ``stable source" through an adjustable threshold.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2001-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2000 Annual Report of the International Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2000 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period March 1, 1999, through December 31, 2000. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2000.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2004 General Meeting Proceedings

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2004-01-01

This volume is the proceedings of the third General Meeting of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astromctry IVS), held in Otlawa, Canada, February 9-11,2004. The keynote of the third GM was visions for the next decade following the main theme of "Today's Results and Tomorrow's Vision". with a recognition that the outstanding VLBI results available today are the foundation and motivation for the next generation VLBI system requirements. The goal of the meeting was to provide an interesting and informative program for a wide cross section of IVS members, including station operators, program managers, and analysts.

Application of ray-traced tropospheric slant delays to geodetic VLBI analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmeister, Armin; Böhm, Johannes

2017-08-01

The correction of tropospheric influences via so-called path delays is critical for the analysis of observations from space geodetic techniques like the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). In standard VLBI analysis, the a priori slant path delays are determined using the concept of zenith delays, mapping functions and gradients. The a priori use of ray-traced delays, i.e., tropospheric slant path delays determined with the technique of ray-tracing through the meteorological data of numerical weather models (NWM), serves as an alternative way of correcting the influences of the troposphere on the VLBI observations within the analysis. In the presented research, the application of ray-traced delays to the VLBI analysis of sessions in a time span of 16.5 years is investigated. Ray-traced delays have been determined with program RADIATE (see Hofmeister in Ph.D. thesis, Department of Geodesy and Geophysics, Faculty of Mathematics and Geoinformation, Technische Universität Wien. http://resolver.obvsg.at/urn:nbn:at:at-ubtuw:1-3444, 2016) utilizing meteorological data provided by NWM of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In comparison with a standard VLBI analysis, which includes the tropospheric gradient estimation, the application of the ray-traced delays to an analysis, which uses the same parameterization except for the a priori slant path delay handling and the used wet mapping factors for the zenith wet delay (ZWD) estimation, improves the baseline length repeatability (BLR) at 55.9% of the baselines at sub-mm level. If no tropospheric gradients are estimated within the compared analyses, 90.6% of all baselines benefit from the application of the ray-traced delays, which leads to an average improvement of the BLR of 1 mm. The effects of the ray-traced delays on the terrestrial reference frame are also investigated. A separate assessment of the RADIATE ray-traced delays is carried out by comparison to the ray-traced delays from the

The simulation of lunar gravity field recovery from D-VLBI of Chang’E-1 and SELENE lunar orbiters

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Jianguo; Ping, Jingsong; Matsumoto, K.; Li, Fei

2008-07-01

The lunar gravity field is a foundation to study the lunar interior structure, and to recover the evolution history of the Moon. It is still an open and key topic for lunar science. For above mentioned reasons, it becomes one of the important scientific objectives of recent lunar missions, such as KAGUYA (SELENE) the Japanese lunar mission and Chang’E-1, the Chinese lunar mission. The Chang’E-1 and the SELENE were successfully launched in 2007. It is estimated that these two missions can fly around the Moon longer than 6 months simultaneously. In these two missions, the Chinese new VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) network will be applied for precise orbit determination (POD) by using a differential VLBI (D-VLBI) method during the mission period. The same-beam D-VLBI technique will contribute to recover the lunar gravity field together with other conventional observables, i.e. R&RR (Range and Range Rate) and multi-way Doppler. Taking VLBI tracking conditions into consideration and using the GEODYNII/SOVLE software of GSFC/NASA/USA [Rowlands, D.D., Marshall, J.A., Mccarthy, J., et al. GEODYN II System Description, vols. 1 5. Contractor Report, Hughes STX Corp. Greenbelt, MD, 1997; Ullman, R.E. SOLVE program: mathematical formulation and guide to user input, Hughes/STX Contractor Report, Contract NAS5-31760. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, 1994], we simulated the lunar gravity field recovering ability with and without D-VLBI between the Chang’E-1 and SELENE main satellite. The cases of overlapped flying and tracking period of 30 days, 60 days and 90 days have been analyzed, respectively. The results show that D-VLBI tracking between two lunar satellites can improve the gravity field recovery remarkably. The results and methods introduced in this paper will benefit the actual missions.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2004-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2003 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the permanent components of IVS. The IVS 2003 Annual Report documents the work of the IVS components for the calendar year 2003, our fifih year of existence. The reports describe changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. Many thanks to all IVS components who contributed to this Annual Report. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2OO3

Operational radio interferometry observation network (ORION) mobile VLBI station. [for NASA Crustal Dynamics Project

Science.gov (United States)

Renzetti, N. A.; Vegos, C. J.; Parks, G. S.; Sniffin, R. W.; Gannon, D. L.; Nishimura, H. G.; Clements, P. A.; Mckinney, R. P.; Menninger, F. J.; Vandenberg, N. R.

1983-01-01

The design and current status of the ORION mobile VLBI station is described. The station consists of a five-meter antenna, a receiving and recording system installed in a mobile antenna transporter, and an electronics transporter. The station is designed for field operation by a two-person crew at the rate of two sites per week. The various subsystems are described in detail, including the antenna, housing facilities for electronics and crew, microwave equipment, receiver, data acquisition subsystem, frequency and timing subsystem, phase calibration, monitoring and control, water vapor radiometer, and communications.

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

2005-07-15

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

2005-07-01

Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Possible systematics in the VLBI catalogs as seen from Gaia

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, N.; Zhu, Z.; Liu, J.-C.

2018-01-01

Aims: In order to investigate the systematic errors in the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) positions of extragalactic sources (quasars) and the global differences between Gaia and VLBI catalogs, we use the first data release of Gaia (Gaia DR1) quasar positions as the reference and study the positional offsets of the second realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2) and the Goddard VLBI solution 2016a (gsf2016a) catalogs. Methods: We select a sample of 1032 common sources among three catalogs and adopt two methods to represent the systematics: considering the differential orientation (offset) and declination bias; analyzing with the vector spherical harmonics (VSH) functions. Results: Between two VLBI catalogs and Gaia DR1, we find that: i) the estimated orientation is consistent with the alignment accuracy of Gaia DR1 to ICRF, of 0.1 mas, but the southern and northern hemispheres show opposite orientations; ii) the declination bias in the southern hemisphere between Gaia DR1 and ICRF2 is estimated to be +152 μas, much larger than that between Gaia DR1 and gsf2016a which is +34 μas. Between two VLBI catalogs, we find that: i) the rotation component shows that ICRF2 and gsf2016a are generally consistent within 30 μas; ii) the glide component and quadrupole component report two declination-dependent offsets: dipolar deformation of +50 μas along the Z-axis, and quadrupolar deformation of -50 μas that would induce a pattern of sin2δ. Conclusions: The significant declination bias between Gaia DR1 and ICRF2 catalogs reported in previous studies is possibly attributed to the systematic errors of ICRF2 in the southern hemisphere. The global differences between ICRF2 and gsf2016a catalogs imply that possible, mainly declination-dependent systematics exit in the VLBI positions and need further investigations in the future Gaia data release and the next generation of ICRF.

Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-02-01

Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

Multi-technique approach for deriving a VLBI signal extra-path variation model induced by gravity: the example of Medicina

Science.gov (United States)

Sarti, P.; Abbondanza, C.; Negusini, M.; Vittuari, L.

2009-09-01

During the measurement sessions gravity might induce significant deformations in large VLBI telescopes. If neglected or mismodelled, these deformations might bias the phase of the incoming signal thus corrupting the estimate of some crucial geodetic parameters (e.g. the height component of VLBI Reference Point). This paper describes a multi-technique approach implemented for measuring and quantifying the gravity-dependent deformations experienced by the 32-m diameter VLBI antenna of Medicina (Northern Italy). Such an approach integrates three different methods: Terrestrial Triangulations and Trilaterations (TTT), Laser Scanning (LS) and a Finite Element Model (FEM) of the antenna. The combination of the observations performed with these methods allows to accurately define an elevation-dependent model of the signal path variation which appears to be, for the Medicina telescope, non negligible. In the range [0,90] deg the signal path increases monotonically by almost 2 cm. The effect of such a variation has not been introduced in actual VLBI analysis yet; nevertheless this is the task we are going to pursue in the very next future.

ESTIMATING THE PARAMETERS OF SAGITTARIUS A*'s ACCRETION FLOW VIA MILLIMETER VLBI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broderick, Avery E [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, 60 St. George St., Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Fish, Vincent L; Doeleman, Sheperd S [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Haystack Observatory, Route 40, Westford, MA 01886 (United States); Loeb, Abraham [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard University, Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden St., Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2009-05-20

Recent millimeter-VLBI observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) have, for the first time, directly probed distances comparable to the horizon scale of a black hole. This provides unprecedented access to the environment immediately around the horizon of an accreting black hole. We leverage both existing spectral and polarization measurements and our present understanding of accretion theory to produce a suite of generic radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF) models of Sgr A*, which we then fit to these recent millimeter-VLBI observations. We find that if the accretion flow onto Sgr A* is well described by an RIAF model, the orientation and magnitude of the black hole's spin are constrained to a two-dimensional surface in the spin, inclination, position angle parameter space. For each of these, we find the likeliest values and their 1{sigma} and 2{sigma} errors to be a = 0{sup +0.4+0.7}, {theta}=50{sup o+10{sup o}}{sup +30{sup o}}{sub -10{sup o}}{sub -10{sup o}}, and {xi}=-20{sup o+31{sup o}}{sup +107{sup o}}{sub -16{sup o}}{sub -29{sup o}}, when the resulting probability distribution is marginalized over the others. The most probable combination is a = 0{sup +0.2+0.4}, {theta}=90{sup o}{sub -40{sup o}}{sub -50{sup o}}, and {xi}=-14{sup o+7{sup o}}{sup +11{sup o}}{sub -7{sup o}}{sub -11{sup o}}, though the uncertainties on these are very strongly correlated, and high probability configurations exist for a variety of inclination angles above 30 deg. and spins below 0.99. Nevertheless, this demonstrates the ability millimeter-VLBI observations, even with only a few stations, to significantly constrain the properties of Sgr A*.

Engineering processes for the African VLBI network

Science.gov (United States)

Thondikulam, Venkatasubramani L.; Loots, Anita; Gaylard, Michael

2013-04-01

The African VLBI Network (AVN) is an initiative by the SKA-SA and HartRAO, business units of the National Research Foundation (NRF), Department of Science and Technology (DST), South Africa. The aim is to fill the existing gap of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI)-capable radio telescopes in the African continent by a combination of new build as well as conversion of large redundant telecommunication antennas through an Inter-Governmental collaborative programme in Science and Technology. The issue of human capital development in the Continent in the techniques of radio astronomy engineering and science is a strong force to drive the project and is expected to contribute significantly to the success of Square Kilometer Array (SKA) in the Continent.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: VLBI Ecliptic Plane Survey: VEPS-1 (Shu+, 2017)

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, F.; Petrov, L.; Jiang, W.; Xia, B.; Jiang, T.; Cui, Y.; Takefuji, K.; McCallum, J.; Lovell, J.; Yi, S.-O.; Hao, L.; Yang, W.; Zhang, H.; Chen, Z.; Li, J.

2017-08-01

We began observations in the search mode in 2015 February. The participating stations included the three core stations of the Chinese VLBI Network (CVN): seshan25, kunming, and urumqi. Depending on the participating stations, the longest baseline length in each session can be varied from 3200km to 9800km. Our observations were performed at a 2048Mbps data rate, with 16 Intermediate Frequency (IF) channels and 2-bit sampling. The first eight IFs of 32MHz bandwidth were distributed in the range of [8.188, 8.444]GHz, and the remaining eight IFs of 32MHz bandwidth were in the range of [8.700, 8.956]GHz. Table 1: Summary of the VLBI Ecliptic Plane Survey (VEPS) observations in search mode: --------------------------------------------------- Date Dur. Code Stations Number of (Y/M/D) (h) Targets --------------------------------------------------- 2015 Feb 13 24 VEPS01 ShKmUr 293 2015 Feb 14 24 VEPS02 ShKmUr 338 2015 Apr 23 24 VEPS03 UrKv 300 2015 Apr 24 24 VEPS04 ShKmUrKv 400 2015 Aug 10 25 VEPS05 ShKmKvHo 252 2015 Aug 19 25 VEPS06 ShKmKvHo 277 2016 Mar 02 24 VEPS07 ShKmUrKb 333 2016 Mar 11 24 VEPS08 ShKmUrKb 477 2016 May 13 24 VEPS09 ShUrHo 291 2016 May 14 22 VEPS10 ShUrKv 322 2016 Jul 06 24 VEPS11 ShUrKb 307 2016 Sep 02 23 VEPS12 ShUr 424 2016 Sep 03 23 VEPS13 ShKmUr 344 --------------------------------------------------- Sh=Seshan25; Km=Kunming; Ur=Urumqi; Kv=Sejong; Kb=Kashim34; Ho=Hobart26. --------------------------------------------------- We ran two absolute astrometry dual-band VLBA programs that targeted ecliptic plane compact radio sources: the dedicated survey of weak ecliptic plane calibrators with the VLBA BS250 program in 2016 March-May, and the VLBA Calibrator Survey 9 (VCS-9) in 2015 August-2016 September. The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) runs a number of VLBI observing programs. We made an attempt to improve the coordinates of some VEPS sources detected in the search mode and provide additional measurements of telescope

Application of Geodetic VLBI Data to Obtaining Long-Term Light Curves for Astrophysics

Science.gov (United States)

Kijima, Masachika

2010-01-01

The long-term light curve is important to research on binary black holes and disk instability in AGNs. The light curves have been drawn mainly using single dish data provided by the University of Michigan Radio Observatory and the Metsahovi Radio Observatory. Hence, thus far, we have to research on limited sources. I attempt to draw light curves using VLBI data for those sources that have not been monitored by any observatories with single dish. I developed software, analyzed all geodetic VLBI data available at the IVS Data Centers, and drew the light curves at 8 GHz. In this report, I show the tentative results for two AGNs. I compared two light curves of 4C39.25, which were drawn based on single dish data and on VLBI data. I confirmed that the two light curves were consistent. Furthermore, I succeeded in drawing the light curve of 0454-234 with VLBI data, which has not been monitored by any observatory with single dish. In this report, I suggest that the geodetic VLBI archive data is useful to obtain the long-term light curves at radio bands for astrophysics.

Automated and dynamic scheduling for geodetic VLBI - A simulation study for AuScope and global networks

Science.gov (United States)

Iles, E. J.; McCallum, L.; Lovell, J. E. J.; McCallum, J. N.

2018-02-01

As we move into the next era of geodetic VLBI, the scheduling process is one focus for improvement in terms of increased flexibility and the ability to react with changing conditions. A range of simulations were conducted to ascertain the impact of scheduling on geodetic results such as Earth Orientation Parameters (EOPs) and station coordinates. The potential capabilities of new automated scheduling modes were also simulated, using the so-called 'dynamic scheduling' technique. The primary aim was to improve efficiency for both cost and time without losing geodetic precision, particularly to maximise the uses of the Australian AuScope VLBI array. We show that short breaks in observation will not significantly degrade the results of a typical 24 h experiment, whereas simply shortening observing time degrades precision exponentially. We also confirm the new automated, dynamic scheduling mode is capable of producing the same standard of result as a traditional schedule, with close to real-time flexibility. Further, it is possible to use the dynamic scheduler to augment the 3 station Australian AuScope array and thereby attain EOPs of the current global precision with only intermittent contribution from 2 additional stations. We thus confirm automated, dynamic scheduling bears great potential for flexibility and automation in line with aims for future continuous VLBI operations.

VLBI TRF Combination Using GNSS Software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Younghee Kwak

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Space geodetic techniques can be used to obtain precise shape and rotation information of the Earth. To achieve this, the representative combination solution of each space geodetic technique has to be produced, and then those solutions need to be combined. In this study, the representative combination solution of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI, which is one of the space geodetic techniques, was produced, and the variations in the position coordinate of each station during 7 years were analyzed. Products from five analysis centers of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS were used as the input data, and Bernese 5.0, which is the global navigation satellite system (GNSS data processing software, was used. The analysis of the coordinate time series for the 43 VLBI stations indicated that the latitude component error was about 15.6 mm, the longitude component error was about 37.7 mm, and the height component error was about 30.9 mm, with respect to the reference frame, International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2008 (ITRF2008. The velocity vector of the 42 stations excluding the YEBES station showed a magnitude difference of 7.3 mm/yr (30.2% and a direction difference of 13.8° (3.8%, with respect to ITRF2008. Among these, the 10 stations in Europe showed a magnitude difference of 7.8 mm/yr (30.3% and a direction difference of 3.7° (1.0%, while the 14 stations in North America showed a magnitude difference of 2.7 mm/yr (15.8% and a direction difference of 10.3° (2.9%.

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2007 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, D. (Editor); Baver, K. D. (Editor)

2008-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2007 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2007 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2007. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2007.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2008 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, Dirk; Baver, Karen D.

2009-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2008 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2008 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2008. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2008.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2011 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Baver, Karen D. (Editor); Behrend, Dirk

2012-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2011 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2011 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2011. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2011.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2005 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, Dirk (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2006-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2005 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the components of IVS. The 2005 Annual Report documents the work of these IVS components over the period January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2005. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2005.

Astrometry VLBI in Space (AVS

Science.gov (United States)

Altunin, V.; Alekseev, V.; Akim, E.; Eubanks, M.; Kingham, K.; Treuhaft, R.; Sukhanov, K.

1995-01-01

A proposed new space radio astronomy mission for astrometry is described. The Astrometry VLBI (very long baseline) in Space (AVS) nominal mission includes two identical spacecraft, each with a 4-m antenna sending data to a 70-m ground station. The goals of AVS are improving astrometry accuracy to the microarcsecond level and improving the accuracy of the transformation between the inertial radio and optical coordinate reference frames.

Constraints on the Mass and Location of Planet 9 set by Range and VLBI Observations of Cassini

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Robert Arthur; Folkner, William; Park, Ryan; Williams, James

2018-04-01

Batygin and Brown, 2016 AJ, found that Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) with well determined orbits having periods greater than 4000 years are apsidally aligned. They attribute this orbital clustering to the existence of a distant planet, Planet 9, well beyond Neptune, with a mass roughly ten times that of Earth. If such a planet exists, it would affect the motion of the known solar system planets, in particular Saturn, which is well observed with radiometric ranging from the Cassini spacecraft and VLBI observations of Cassini. The current planetary ephemerides do not account for the postulated Planet 9, yet their fit to the observational data shows no obvious effect that could be attributed to neglecting that planet. However, it is possible that the effect could be absorbed by the estimated parameters used to determine the ephemerides. Those parameters include the planetary orbital elements, mass of the Sun, and the masses of the asteroids that perturb the Martian orbit. We recently updated the Cassini data set and extended it through the end of the mssion in 2017 September. We analyze the sensitivity of these data to the tidal perturbations caused by the postulated Planet 9 for a range of positions on the sky and tidal parameters (the ratio of the mass of Planet 9 to the cube of its distance from Saturn). We determine an upper bound on the tidal parameter and the most probable directions consistent with the observational data.

Digital Base Band Converter As Radar Vlbi Backend / Dbbc Kā Ciparošanas Sistēma Radara Vlbi Novērojumiem

Science.gov (United States)

Tuccari, G.; Bezrukovs, Vl.; Nechaeva, M.

2012-12-01

A digital base band converter (DBBC) system has been developed by the Istituto di Radioastronomia (Noto, Italy) for increasing the sensitivity of European VLBI Network (EVN) by expanding the full observed bandwidth using numerical methods. The output data rate of this VLBI-backend is raised from 1 to 4 Gbps for each radiotelescope. All operations related to the signal processing (frequency translation, amplification, frequency generation with local oscillators, etc.) are transferred to the digital domain, which allows - in addition to well-known advantages coming from digital technologies - achieving better repeatability, precision, simplicity, etc. The maximum input band of DBBC system is 3.5 GHz, and the instantaneous bandwidth is up to 1 GHz for each radio frequency/intermediate frequency (RF/IF) out of the eight possible. This backend is a highly powerful platform for other radioastronomy applications, and a number of additional so-called personalities have been developed and used. This includes PFB (polyphase filter bank) receivers and Spectra for high resolution spectroscopy. An additional new development with the same aim - to use the DBBC system as a multi-purpose backend - is related to the bi-static radar observations including Radar VLBI. In such observations it is possible to study the population of space debris, with detection of even centimetre class fragments. A powerful transmitter is used to illuminate the sky region to be analyzed, and the echoes coming from known or unknown objects are reflected to one or more groundbased telescopes thus producing a single-dish or interferometric detection. The DBBC Radar VLBI personality is able to realize a high-resolution spectrum analysis, maintaining in the central area the echo signal at the expected frequency including the Doppler shift of frequency. For extremely weak signals a very large integration time is needed, so for this personality different input parameters are provided. The realtime information

SHARP - V. Modelling gravitationally-lensed radio arcs imaged with global VLBI observations

Science.gov (United States)

Spingola, C.; McKean, J. P.; Auger, M. W.; Fassnacht, C. D.; Koopmans, L. V. E.; Lagattuta, D. J.; Vegetti, S.

2018-05-01

We present milliarcsecond (mas) angular resolution observations of the gravitationally lensed radio source MG J0751+2716 (at z = 3.2) obtained with global Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) at 1.65 GHz. The background object is highly resolved in the tangential and radial directions, showing evidence of both compact and extended structure across several gravitational arcs that are 200 to 600 mas in size. By identifying compact sub-components in the multiple images, we constrain the mass distribution of the foreground z = 0.35 gravitational lens using analytic models for the main deflector [power-law elliptical mass model; ρ(r)∝r-γ, where γ = 2 corresponds to isothermal] and for the members of the galaxy group. Moreover, our mass models with and without the group find an inner mass-density slope steeper than isothermal for the main lensing galaxy, with γ1 = 2.08 ± 0.02 and γ2 = 2.16 ± 0.02 at the 4.2σ level and 6.8σ level, respectively, at the Einstein radius (b1 = 0.4025 ± 0.0008 and b2 = 0.307 ± 0.002 arcsec, respectively). We find randomly distributed image position residuals of about 3 mas, which are much larger that the measurement errors (40 μas on average). This suggests that at the mas level, the assumption of a smooth mass distribution fails, requiring additional structure in the model. However, given the environment of the lensing galaxy, it is not clear whether this extra mass is in the form of sub-haloes within the lens or along the line of sight, or from a more complex halo for the galaxy group.

Future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

. USDA Forest Service.

2012-01-01

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA) mandates a periodic assessment of the conditions and trends of the Nation's renewable resources on forests and rangelands. The RPA Assessment includes projections of resource conditions and trends 50 years into the future. The 2010 RPA Assessment used a set of future scenarios to provide a...

Ionospheric Response to the Total Solar Eclipse of 22 July 2009 as Deduced from VLBI and GPS Data

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, L.; Shu, F. C.; Zheng, W. M.; Kondo, T.; Ichikawa, R.; Hasegawa, S.; Sekido, M.

2010-01-01

A total solar eclipse occurred over China at latitudes of about 30 N on the morning of 22 July 2009, providing a unique opportunity to investigate the influence of the sun on the earth's upper ionosphere. GPS observations from Shanghai GPS Local Network and VLBI observations from stations Shanghai, Urumqi, and Kashima were used to observe the response of TEC to the total solar eclipse. From the GPS data reduction, the sudden decrease of TEC at the time of the eclipse, amounting to 2.8 TECU, and gradual increase of TEC after the eclipse were found by analyzing the diurnal variations. More distinctly, the variations of TEC were studied along individual satellite passes. The delay in reaching the minimum level of TEC with the maximum phase of eclipse was 5-10 min. Besides, we also compared the ionospheric activity derived from different VLBI stations with the GPS results and found a strong correlation between them.

The New Generation Russian VLBI Network

Science.gov (United States)

Finkelstein, Andrey; Ipatov, Alexander; Smolentsev, Sergey; Mardyshkin, Vyacheslav; Fedotov, Leonid; Surkis, Igor; Ivanov, Dmitrij; Gayazov, Iskander

2010-01-01

This paper deals with a new project of the Russian VLBI Network dedicated for Universal Time determinations in quasi on-line mode. The basic principles of the network design and location of antennas are explained. Variants of constructing receiving devices, digital data acquisition system, and phase calibration system are specially considered. The frequency ranges and expected values of noise temperature are given.

Round-Trip System Available to Measure Path Length Variation in Korea VLBI System for Geodesy

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Hongjong; Kondo, Tetsuro; Lee, Jinoo; Kim, Tuhwan; Kim, Myungho; Kim, Suchul; Park, Jinsik; Ju, Hyunhee

2010-01-01

The construction project of Korea Geodetic VLBI officially started in October 2008. The construction of all systems will be completed by the end of 2011. The project was named Korea VLBI system for Geodesy (KVG), and its main purpose is to maintain the Korea Geodetic Datum. In case of the KVG system, an observation room with an H-maser frequency standard is located in a building separated from the antenna by several tens of meters. Therefore KVG system will adopt a so-called round-trip system to transmit reference signals to the antenna with reduction of the effect of path length variations. KVG s round-trip system is designed not only to use either metal or optical fiber cables, but also to measure path length variations directly. We present this unique round trip system for KVG.

Preliminary design work on a DSN VLBI correlator. [Deep Space Network

Science.gov (United States)

Lushbaugh, W. A.; Layland, J. W.

1978-01-01

The Deep Space Network is in the process of fielding high-density digital instrumentation recorders for support of the Pioneer Venus 1978 entry experiment and other related tasks. It has long been obvious that these recorders would also serve well as the recording medium for very long base interferometry (VLBI) experiments with relatively weak radio sources, provided that a suitable correlation processor for these tape recordings could be established. The overall design and current status of a VLBI correlator designed to mate with these tape recorders are described.

VLBI-derived troposphere parameters during CONT08

Science.gov (United States)

Heinkelmann, R.; Böhm, J.; Bolotin, S.; Engelhardt, G.; Haas, R.; Lanotte, R.; MacMillan, D. S.; Negusini, M.; Skurikhina, E.; Titov, O.; Schuh, H.

2011-07-01

Time-series of zenith wet and total troposphere delays as well as north and east gradients are compared, and zenith total delays ( ZTD) are combined on the level of parameter estimates. Input data sets are provided by ten Analysis Centers (ACs) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for the CONT08 campaign (12-26 August 2008). The inconsistent usage of meteorological data and models, such as mapping functions, causes systematics among the ACs, and differing parameterizations and constraints add noise to the troposphere parameter estimates. The empirical standard deviation of ZTD among the ACs with regard to an unweighted mean is 4.6 mm. The ratio of the analysis noise to the observation noise assessed by the operator/software impact (OSI) model is about 2.5. These and other effects have to be accounted for to improve the intra-technique combination of VLBI-derived troposphere parameters. While the largest systematics caused by inconsistent usage of meteorological data can be avoided and the application of different mapping functions can be considered by applying empirical corrections, the noise has to be modeled in the stochastic model of intra-technique combination. The application of different stochastic models shows no significant effects on the combined parameters but results in different mean formal errors: the mean formal errors of the combined ZTD are 2.3 mm (unweighted), 4.4 mm (diagonal), 8.6 mm [variance component (VC) estimation], and 8.6 mm (operator/software impact, OSI). On the one hand, the OSI model, i.e. the inclusion of off-diagonal elements in the cofactor-matrix, considers the reapplication of observations yielding a factor of about two for mean formal errors as compared to the diagonal approach. On the other hand, the combination based on VC estimation shows large differences among the VCs and exhibits a comparable scaling of formal errors. Thus, for the combination of troposphere parameters a combination of the two

SAND: an automated VLBI imaging and analysing pipeline - I. Stripping component trajectories

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, M.; Collioud, A.; Charlot, P.

2018-02-01

We present our implementation of an automated very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data-reduction pipeline that is dedicated to interferometric data imaging and analysis. The pipeline can handle massive VLBI data efficiently, which makes it an appropriate tool to investigate multi-epoch multiband VLBI data. Compared to traditional manual data reduction, our pipeline provides more objective results as less human interference is involved. The source extraction is carried out in the image plane, while deconvolution and model fitting are performed in both the image plane and the uv plane for parallel comparison. The output from the pipeline includes catalogues of CLEANed images and reconstructed models, polarization maps, proper motion estimates, core light curves and multiband spectra. We have developed a regression STRIP algorithm to automatically detect linear or non-linear patterns in the jet component trajectories. This algorithm offers an objective method to match jet components at different epochs and to determine their proper motions.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2013 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Baver, Karen D.; Behrend, Dirk; Armstrong, Kyla L.

2014-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2013 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the permanent components of IVS. The IVS 2013 Annual Report documents the work of the IVS components for the calendar year 2013, our fifteenth year of existence. The reports describe changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. Many thanks to all IVS components who contributed to this Annual Report. With the exception of the first section and the last section, the contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2013.

Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

2017-02-15

During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

Science.gov (United States)

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

VLBI OBSERVATION OF MICROQUASAR CYG X-3 DURING AN X-RAY STATE TRANSITION FROM SOFT TO HARD IN THE 2007 MAY-JUNE FLARE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jeong-Sook; Kim, Sang Joon [School of Space Science, Kyunghee University, Seocheon-dong, Giheung-si, Gyeonggi-do 446-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Soon-Wook [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdaero, Yuseong, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Kurayama, Tomoharu [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-35 Korimoto, Kagoshima, Kagoshima 890-0065 (Japan); Honma, Mareki [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Sasao, Tetsuo, E-mail: evony@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: skim@kasi.re.kr [Yaeyama Star Club, Ookawa, Ishigaki, Okinawa 904-0022 (Japan)

2013-07-20

We present a radio observation of microquasar Cyg X-3 during an X-ray state transition from ultrasoft to hard state in the 2007 May-June flare using the VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry at 22 GHz. During the transition, a short-lived mini-flare of {approx}< 3 hr was detected prior to the major flare. In such a transition, a jet ejection is believed to occur, but there have been no direct observations to support it. An analysis of Gaussian fits to the observed visibility amplitudes shows a time variation of the source axis, or a structural change, during the mini-flare. Our model fits, together with other multiwavelength observations in the radio, soft, and hard X-rays, and the shock-in-jet models for other flaring activities at GHz wavebands, suggest a high possibility of synchrotron flares during the mini-flare, indicative of a predominant contribution from jet activity. Therefore, the mini-flare with an associated structural change is indicative of a jet ejection event in the state transition from ultrasoft to hard state.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2012 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Baver, Karen D.; Behrend, Dirk; Armstrong, Kyla L.

2013-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2012 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the permanent components of IVS. The IVS 2012 Annual Report documents the work of the IVS components for the calendar year 2012, our fourteenth year of existence. The reports describe changes, activities, and progress ofthe IVS. Many thanks to all IVS components who contributed to this Annual Report. With the exception of the first section and parts of the last section (described below), the contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS Web site athttp:ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2012

On the Impact of Inhomogeneities in Meteorological Data on VLBI Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Balidakis, Kyriakos; Heinkelmann, Robert; Phogat, Apurva; Soja, Benedikt; Glaser, Susanne; Nilsson, Tobias; Karbon, Maria; Schuh, Harald

2016-12-01

In this study, we address the issue of the quality of meteorological data employed for VLBI data analysis. We use data from six numerical weather models (NWMs) to form references on which the homogenization process is based. We explore the impact of the choice of NWM as well as the way to extract data from it. Among our findings is that data from the surface fields of NWMs are not suitable for either geodetic analysis or homogenization efforts, whether they are in their original form or after they have been compensated for the height difference between the orography of the NWM and the actual elevation. The reason lies in the fact that for 77% of the VLBI stations a height bias larger than 2.5 mm appears, as well as an average bias in the zenith wet delay estimates of 12.2 mm. Should the proposed extraction approach be followed, the difference between operational and reanalysis NWMs is not significant for such an application. Our conclusions are based on the analysis of VLBI data over 13 years.

Earth Rotation Parameters from DSN VLBI: 1996

Science.gov (United States)

Steppe, J. A.; Oliveau, S. H.; Sovers, O. J.

1996-01-01

A despcription of the DSN VLBI data set and of most aspects of the data analysis can be found in the IERS Technical Note 17, pp. R-19 to R-32 (see also IERS Technical Note 19, pp. R-21 to R-27). The main changes in this year's analysis form last year's are simply due to including another year's data.

Constraints on the Mass and Location of Planet 9 set by Range and VLBI Observations of Spacecraft at Saturn

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, Robert A.; Folkner, William M.; Park, Ryan S.; Williams, James G.

2017-06-01

Batygin and Brown, 2016 AJ, found that all Kuiper belt objects (KBOs) with well determined orbits having periods greater than 4000 years share nearly the same orbital plane and are apsidally aligned. They attribute this orbital clustering to the existence of a distant planet, Planet 9, well beyond Neptune, with a mass roughly ten times that of Earth. If such a planet exists, it would affect the motion of the known solar system planets, in particular Saturn, which is well observed with radiometric ranging from the Voyager and Cassini spacecraft and VLBI observations of Cassini. The current planetary ephemerides do not account for the postulated Planet 9, yet their fit to the observational data shows no obvious effect that could be attributed to neglecting that planet. However, it is possible that the effect could be absorbed by the estimated parameters used to determine the ephemerides. Those parameters include the planetary orbital elements, mass of the Sun, and the masses of the asteroids that perturb the Martian orbit. We recently updated the Voyager and Cassini data sets and extended the latter through 2017 March. We analyze the sensitivity of these data to the tidal perturbations caused by Planet 9 for a range of positions on the sky and tidal parameters (the ratio of the mass of Planet 9 to the cube of its distance from Saturn). We determine an upper bound on the tidal parameter and the most probable directions consistent with the observational data.

THE BENEFITS OF VLBI ASTROMETRY TO PULSAR TIMING ARRAY SEARCHES FOR GRAVITATIONAL RADIATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Madison, D. R.; Chatterjee, S.; Cordes, J. M. [Department of Astronomy and Center for Radiophysics and Space Research, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850 (United States)

2013-11-10

Precision astrometry is an integral component of successful pulsar timing campaigns. Astrometric parameters are commonly derived by fitting them as parameters of a timing model to a series of pulse times of arrival (TOAs). TOAs measured to microsecond precision over spans of several years can yield position measurements with sub-milliarcsecond precision. However, timing-based astrometry can become biased if a pulsar displays any red spin noise or a red signal produced by the stochastic gravitational wave background. We investigate how noise of different spectral types is absorbed by timing models, leading to significant estimation biases in the astrometric parameters. We find that commonly used techniques for fitting timing models in the presence of red noise (Cholesky whitening) prevent the absorption of noise into the timing model remarkably well if the time baseline of observations exceeds several years, but are inadequate for dealing with shorter pulsar data sets. Independent of timing, pulsar-optimized very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) is capable of providing position estimates precise to the sub-milliarcsecond levels needed for high-precision timing. In order to make VLBI astrometric parameters useful in pulsar timing models, the transformation between the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) and the dynamical solar system ephemeris used for pulsar timing must be constrained to within a few microarcseconds. We compute a transformation between the ICRF and pulsar timing frames and quantitatively discuss how the transformation will improve in coming years. We find that incorporating VLBI astrometry into the timing models of pulsars for which only a couple of years of timing data exist will lead to more realistic assessments of red spin noise and could enhance the amplitude of gravitational wave signatures in post-fit timing residuals by factors of 20 or more.

Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2001-01-01

visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

SN 1986J VLBI. IV. The Nature of the Central Component

Science.gov (United States)

Bietenholz, Michael F.; Bartel, Norbert

2017-12-01

We report on Very Large Array measurements between 1 and 45 GHz of the evolving radio spectral energy distribution (SED) of SN 1986J, made in conjunction with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) imaging. The SED of SN 1986J is unique among supernovae, and shows an inversion point and a high-frequency turnover. Both are due to the central component seen in the VLBI images, and both are progressing downward in frequency with time. The optically thin spectral index of the central component is almost the same as that of the shell. We fit a simple model to the evolving SED consisting of an optically thin shell and a partly absorbed central component. The evolution of the SED is consistent with that of a homologously expanding system. Both components are fading, but the shell is fading more rapidly. We conclude that the central component is physically inside the expanding shell, and not a surface hotspot central only in projection. Our observations are consistent with the central component being due to interaction of the shock with the dense and highly structured circumstellar medium that resulted from a period of common-envelope evolution of the progenitor. However, a young pulsar-wind nebula or emission from an accreting black hole can also not be ruled out at this point.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry: 2000 General Meeting Proceedings

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2000-01-01

This volume is the proceedings of the first General Meeting of the International Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS), held in Koetzting, Germany, February 21-24, 2000. The content of this volume also appears on the IVS web site at: http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/gm2000. The goal of the program committee for the General Meeting was to provide an interesting and informative program for a wide cross section of IVS members, including station operators, program managers, and analysts. The program included reports, tutorials, invited and contributed papers, and poster presentations. The tutorial papers should be particularly useful references because each one provides an overview and introduction to a topic relevant to VLBI.

NASA Space Geodesy Program: GSFC data analysis, 1993. VLBI geodetic results 1979 - 1992

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Chopo; Ryan, James W.; Caprette, Douglas S.

1994-01-01

The Goddard VLBI group reports the results of analyzing Mark 3 data sets acquired from 110 fixed and mobile observing sites through the end of 1992 and available to the Space Geodesy Program. Two large solutions were used to obtain site positions, site velocities, baseline evolution for 474 baselines, earth rotation parameters, nutation offsets, and radio source positions. Site velocities are presented in both geocentric Cartesian and topocentric coordinates. Baseline evolution is plotted for the 89 baselines that were observed in 1992 and positions at 1988.0 are presented for all fixed stations and mobile sites. Positions are also presented for quasar radio sources used in the solutions.

Prospect of Continuous VLBI Measurement of Earth Rotation in Monitoring Geophysical Fluids

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Ma, Chopo; Clark, Thomas

1998-01-01

Large-scale mass transports in the geophysical fluids of the Earth system excite Earth's rotational variations in both length-of-day and polar motion. The excitation process is via the conservation of angular momentum. Therefore Earth rotation observations contain information about the integrated angular momentum (consisting of both the mass term and the motion term) of the geophysical fluids, which include atmosphere, hydrosphere, mantle, and the outer and inner cores. Such global information is often important and otherwise unattainable depending on the nature of the mass transport, its magnitude and time scale. The last few years have seen great advances in VLBI measurement of Earth rotation in precision and temporal resolution. These advances have opened new. areas in geophysical fluid studies, such as oceanic tidal angular momentum, atmospheric tides, Earth librations, and rapid atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations. Precision of 10 microseconds in UTI and 200 microarcseconds in polar motion can now be achieved on hourly basis. Building upon this heritage, the multi-network geodetic VLBI project, Continuous Observation of the Rotation of the Earth (CORE), promises to further these studies and to make possible studies on elusive but tell-tale geophysical processes such as oscillatory modes in the core and in the atmosphere. Currently the early phase of CORE is underway. Within a few years into the new mellinnium, the upcoming space gravity missions (such as GRACE) will measure the temporal variations in Earth's gravitational field, thus providing complementary information to that from Earth rotation study for a better understanding of global geophysical fluid processes.

Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2013-06-15

Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry: 1999 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor)

1999-01-01

This volume of reports is the 1999 Annual Report of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry -IVS. The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic community who constitute the components of IVS. The 1999 Annual Report documents the work of the IVS components for the year ending March 1, 1999, the official inauguration date of IVS. As the newest of the space technique services, IVS decided to publish this Annual Report as a reference to our organization and its components. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS website at: http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/arl999. The IVS 1999 Annual Report will be a valuable reference for information about IVS and its components. This Annual Report will serve as a baseline from which we can measure the anticipated progress of IVS in coming years.

Frequent VLBI Monitoring on Parsec-Scales of 450+ Extragalactic FERMI Sources at 8 and 32 GHz

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Christopher S.; Majid, W. A.; Romero-Wolf, A.; García-Mirí, C.; Horiuchi, S.; Snedeker, L. G.; Sotuela, I.

2012-10-01

Executive Summary: An existing Ka-band (32 GHz, 9mm) catalog of 450+ sources is being monitored every 6-10 weeks on Giga-lambda baselines. These observations are sensitive to parsec scale activity in the AGN cores providing unique tests of gamma ray emission models. Abstract: The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has now released the 2nd catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources (2FGL) derived from the first 24 months of mission science data with 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range. 1017 of 1873 sources at high Galactic latitude (abs(b) > 10 degrees) are associated statistically with active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Parsec-scale VLBI measurements play an important role in characterizing the nature of the candidate AGNs by providing crucial extra information to improve the probability of correct identification - VLBI filters out objects which do not host strong compact jets at parsec scale. We are carrying out regular VLBI monitoring of 450+ compact extragalactic sources using Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-meter antennas over intercontinental baselines simultaneously at 8 and 32 GHz. In addition to precision astrometric measurements of AGN compact cores used to maintain the JPL extragalactic reference frame, this program has the potential to provide regular simultaneous flux density measurements at 8 and 32 GHz with precision level of ~20%. By providing measurements on both East-West and North-South baselines with large antennas and Gbit/s recording capability, our program can probe sources down to a flux limit of 30 mJy (10-sigma), potentially increasing the sample to a fainter population of sources. In these regards, our program complements well existing northern and southern hemisphere VLBI monitoring programs, by providing flux measurements at 32 GHz, covering a fainter population sample, and by filling the gap for sources in the -20 to -45 degree declination range. Further, our program also provides additional flexibility for

A comparative study of amplitude calibrations for the East Asia VLBI Network: A priori and template spectrum methods

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Ilje; Jung, Taehyun; Zhao, Guang-Yao; Akiyama, Kazunori; Sawada-Satoh, Satoko; Kino, Motoki; Byun, Do-Young; Sohn, Bong Won; Shibata, Katsunori M.; Hirota, Tomoya; Niinuma, Kotaro; Yonekura, Yoshinori; Fujisawa, Kenta; Oyama, Tomoaki

2017-12-01

We present the results of a comparative study of amplitude calibrations for the East Asia VLBI Network (EAVN) at 22 and 43 GHz using two different methods of an "a priori" and a "template spectrum", particularly on lower declination sources. Using observational data sets of early EAVN observations, we investigated the elevation-dependence of the gain values at seven stations of the KaVA (KVN and VERA Array) and three additional telescopes in Japan (Takahagi 32 m, Yamaguchi 32 m, and Nobeyama 45 m). By comparing the independently obtained gain values based on these two methods, we found that the gain values from each method were consistent within 10% at elevations higher than 10°. We also found that the total flux densities of two images produced from the different amplitude calibrations were in agreement within 10% at both 22 and 43 GHz. By using the template spectrum method, furthermore, the additional radio telescopes can participate in KaVA (i.e., EAVN), giving a notable sensitivity increase. Therefore, our results will constrain the detailed conditions in order to measure the VLBI amplitude reliably using EAVN, and discuss the potential of possible expansion to telescopes comprising EAVN.

A Three-decade X-band VLBI Study of 3CR Lobe-dominated Quasar Nuclei

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hough David H.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available We report X-band VLBI observations of several 3CR lobe-dominated quasar nuclei from 1981 to 2010, mostly obtained with the NRAO VLBA. The goal is to follow flux density outbursts and to fully determine the jet morphology and kinematics on 1-100 pc scales. In 3C207, the core region has flux outbursts at mean intervals of ~7 yr; one of these is actually a double outburst from a stationary true core and a swinging component ~0.5 mas apart. The position angle (PA of the swinging component varies by ~40°, while the PA values of the jet components span ~25°. The jet extends to ~25 mas. Average superluminal speeds are ~10c. One component shows apparent acceleration from 7c to 14c at 2-3 mas from the true core, in a jet recollimation zone that redirects the flow toward PA ~90°. Individual jet components expand until reaching the recollimation zone. In 3C263 and other objects, some of the same phenomena are seen, including ejection of jet components over a range in PA, superluminal motion, and apparent acceleration, but to a lesser degree. Possible physical interpretations involving beaming, orientation, projection, precession, and magnetic effects are discussed.

THE 2010 VERY HIGH ENERGY {gamma}-RAY FLARE AND 10 YEARS OF MULTI-WAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS OF M 87

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abramowski, A. [Institut fuer Experimentalphysik, Universitaet Hamburg, Luruper Chaussee 149, D 22761 Hamburg (Germany); Acero, F. [Laboratoire Univers et Particules de Montpellier, Universite Montpellier 2, CNRS/IN2P3, CC 72, Place Eugene Bataillon, F-34095 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France); Aharonian, F.; Bernloehr, K.; Bochow, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik, P.O. Box 103980, D 69029 Heidelberg (Germany); Akhperjanian, A. G. [National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, 24 Marshall Baghramian Avenue, 0019 Yerevan (Armenia); Anton, G.; Balzer, A. [Physikalisches Institut, Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str. 1, D 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Barnacka, A. [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, ul. Bartycka 18, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland); Barres de Almeida, U. [Department of Physics, University of Durham, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Becherini, Y. [Astroparticule et Cosmologie (APC), CNRS, Universite Paris 7 Denis Diderot, 10, rue Alice Domon et Leonie Duquet, F-75205 Paris Cedex 13 (France); Becker, J. [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Lehrstuhl IV: Weltraum und Astrophysik, Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum, D 44780 Bochum (Germany); Behera, B. [Landessternwarte, Universitaet Heidelberg, Koenigstuhl, D 69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Birsin, E. [Institut fuer Physik, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, D 12489 Berlin (Germany); Biteau, J. [Laboratoire Leprince-Ringuet, Ecole Polytechnique, CNRS/IN2P3, F-91128 Palaiseau (France); Boisson, C. [LUTH, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Universite Paris Diderot, 5 Place Jules Janssen, 92190 Meudon (France); Bolmont, J. [LPNHE, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie Paris 6, Universite Denis Diderot Paris 7, CNRS/IN2P3, 4 Place Jussieu, F-75252, Paris Cedex 5 (France); Bordas, P., E-mail: martin.raue@desy.de [Institut fuer Astronomie und Astrophysik, Universitaet Tuebingen, Sand 1, D 72076 Tuebingen (Germany); Collaboration: H.E.S.S. Collaboration; MAGIC Collaboration; VERITAS Collaboration; and others

2012-02-20

) light curve of M 87, spanning from radio to VHE and including data from Hubble Space Telescope, Liverpool Telescope, Very Large Array, and European VLBI Network, is used to further investigate the origin of the VHE {gamma}-ray emission. No unique, common MWL signature of the three VHE flares has been identified. In the outer kiloparsec jet region, in particular in HST-1, no enhanced MWL activity was detected in 2008 and 2010, disfavoring it as the origin of the VHE flares during these years. Shortly after two of the three flares (2008 and 2010), the X-ray core was observed to be at a higher flux level than its characteristic range (determined from more than 60 monitoring observations: 2002-2009). In 2005, the strong flux dominance of HST-1 could have suppressed the detection of such a feature. Published models for VHE {gamma}-ray emission from M 87 are reviewed in the light of the new data.

Rigorous Combination of GNSS and VLBI: How it Improves Earth Orientation and Reference Frames

Science.gov (United States)

Lambert, S. B.; Richard, J. Y.; Bizouard, C.; Becker, O.

2017-12-01

Current reference series (C04) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) are produced by a weighted combination of Earth orientation parameters (EOP) time series built up by combination centers of each technique (VLBI, GNSS, Laser ranging, DORIS). In the future, we plan to derive EOP from a rigorous combination of the normal equation systems of the four techniques.We present here the results of a rigorous combination of VLBI and GNSS pre-reduced, constraint-free, normal equations with the DYNAMO geodetic analysis software package developed and maintained by the French GRGS (Groupe de Recherche en GeÌodeÌsie Spatiale). The used normal equations are those produced separately by the IVS and IGS combination centers to which we apply our own minimal constraints.We address the usefulness of such a method with respect to the classical, a posteriori, combination method, and we show whether EOP determinations are improved.Especially, we implement external validations of the EOP series based on comparison with geophysical excitation and examination of the covariance matrices. Finally, we address the potential of the technique for the next generation celestial reference frames, which are currently determined by VLBI only.

VLBI-simulations for the estimation of degree-three Love and Shida numbers h3 and l3

Science.gov (United States)

Mendes Cerveira, P. J.; Boehm, J.; Wresnik, J.; Spicakova, H.; Schuh, H.

2007-12-01

For the displacement due to solid Earth tides, the IERS Conventions 2003 recommend several corrections to nominal values. One of these corrections is the in-phase contribution by using the real Love and Shida numbers h3 and l3 at all degree-3 tides, where only the contribution of the moon is relevant. The maximum predicted radial displacement is in the order of 1.7 mm. The nominal values are 0.292 for h3, and 0.015 for l3, respectively. Using realistic station and source catalogues, we simulated VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) group time delays, with a white noise going up to 2 cm, and taking into account the solid Earth tides displacement. Goal of this study was to investigate whether degree-3 Love and Shida numbers can be unambiguously determined from VLBI observations. Therefore, several setups w.r.t., e.g., station constellation, cutoff angle, time span, sampling interval, and different levels of white noise were tested. Attention was put into the separability and correlation between the degree-2 and degree-3 Love and Shida numbers.

Prospects for UT1 Measurements from VLBI Intensive Sessions

Science.gov (United States)

Boehm, Johannes; Nilsson, Tobias; Schuh, Harald

2010-01-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensives are one-hour single baseline sessions to provide Universal Time (UT1) in near real-time up to a delay of three days if a site is not e-transferring the observational data. Due to the importance of UT1 estimates for the prediction of Earth orientation parameters, as well as any kind of navigation on Earth or in space, there is not only the need to improve the timeliness of the results but also their accuracy. We identify the asymmetry of the tropospheric delays as the major error source, and we provide two strategies to improve the results, in particular of those Intensives which include the station Tsukuba in Japan with its large tropospheric variation. We find an improvement when (1) using ray-traced delays from a numerical weather model, and (2) when estimating tropospheric gradients within the analysis of Intensive sessions. The improvement is shown in terms of reduction of rms of length-of-day estimates w.r.t. those derived from Global Positioning System observations

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry 2000 Annual Report

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, N. R. (Editor); Baver, K. D. (Editor); Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This volume of reports is the 2000 Annual Report of the International Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). The individual reports were contributed by VLBI groups in the international geodetic and astrometric community who constitute the permanent components of IVS. The IVS 2000 Annual Report documents the work of the IVS components for the period March 1, 1999 (the official inauguration date of IVS) through December 31, 2000. The reports document changes, activities, and progress of the IVS. The entire contents of this Annual Report also appear on the IVS web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/ar2000. This book and the web site are organized as follows: (1) The first section contains general information about IVS, a map showing the location of the components, information about the Directing Board members, and the report of the IVS Chair; (2) The second section of Special Reports contains a status report of the IVS Working Group on GPS phase center mapping, a reproduction of the resolution making IVS a Service of the International Astronomical Union (IAU), and a reprint of the VLBI Standard Interface (VSI); (3) The next seven sections hold the component reports from the Coordinators, Network Stations, Operation Centers, Correlators, Data Centers, Analysis Centers, and Technology Development Centers; and (4) The last section includes reference information about IVS: the Terms of Reference, the lists of Member and Affiliated organizations, the IVS Associate Member list, a complete list of IVS components, the list of institutions contributing to this report, and a list of acronyms. The 2000 Annual Report demonstrates the vitality of the IVS and the outstanding progress we have made during our first 22 months.

Use of GPS TEC Maps for Calibrating Single Band VLBI Sessions

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, David

2010-01-01

GPS TEC ionosphere maps were first applied to a series of K and Q band VLBA astrometry sessions to try to eliminate a declination bias in estimated source positions. Their usage has been expanded to calibrate X-band only VLBI observations as well. At K-band, approx.60% of the declination bias appears to be removed with the application of GPS ionosphere calibrations. At X-band however, it appears that up to 90% or more of the declination bias is removed, with a corresponding increase in RA and declination uncertainties of approx.0.5 mas. GPS ionosphere calibrations may be very useful for improving the estimated positions of the X-only and S-only sources in the VCS and RDV sessions.

VLA and low-frequency VLBI observations of the radio source 0503 + 467 - Austere constraints on interstellar scattering in two media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spangler, S.R.; Fey, A.L.; Cordes, J.M.; Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY)

1987-01-01

The radio source 0503 + 467 lies near the Galactic plane (l = 161.0 deg, b = 3.7 deg) and at the edge of the supernova remnant (SNR) HB 9. The VLA observations show that it has a spectrum typical of a compact extragalactic radio source. The resultant small angular size of the source makes it an excellent probe of turbulence in two media: the diffuse, or type A, component of interstellar turbulence and a hypothesized region of hydromagnetic turbulence upstream of the supernova remnant. An eight-station VLBI experiment at 326 MHz indicates that the source is less than about 20 milliarcseconds (mas) in angular diameter. A value of 16 mas is most appropriate as an upper limit to the interstellar scattering contribution to the measured angular size. The implications of this upper limit are twofold. First, the galactocentric radial scale to the type-A turbulence is probably less than or equal to about 6 kpc. Second, no evidence is seen for shock-associated turbulence upstream of HB 9. The measurements make it possible to constrain a parameter which is a function of the rms density fluctuation in the upstream region, the outer scale to the density turbulence, and the thickness of SNR foreshock region. 14 references

Imaging VLBI polarimetry data from Active Galactic Nuclei using the Maximum Entropy Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Coughlan Colm P.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Mapping the relativistic jets emanating from AGN requires the use of a deconvolution algorithm to account for the effects of missing baseline spacings. The CLEAN algorithm is the most commonly used algorithm in VLBI imaging today and is suitable for imaging polarisation data. The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM is presented as an alternative with some advantages over the CLEAN algorithm, including better spatial resolution and a more rigorous and unbiased approach to deconvolution. We have developed a MEM code suitable for deconvolving VLBI polarisation data. Monte Carlo simulations investigating the performance of CLEAN and the MEM code on a variety of source types are being carried out. Real polarisation (VLBA data taken at multiple wavelengths have also been deconvolved using MEM, and several of the resulting polarisation and Faraday rotation maps are presented and discussed.

Long-term millimeter VLBI monitoring of M 87 with KVN at milliarcsecond resolution: nuclear spectrum

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Sang-Sung; Hodgson, Jeffrey A.; Algaba, Juan-Carlos; Zhao, Guang-Yao; Kino, Motoki; Byun, Do-Young; Kang, Sincheol

2018-02-01

We study the centimeter- to millimeter-wavelength synchrotron spectrum of the core of the radio galaxy M 87 at ≲0.8 mas 110Rs spatial scales using four years of fully simultaneous, multi-frequency VLBI data obtained by the Korean VLBI Network (KVN). We find a core spectral index α of ≳‑0.37 (S ∝ ν+α) between 22 and 129 GHz. By combining resolution-matched flux measurements from the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) at 15 GHz and taking the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 230 GHz core flux measurements in epochs 2009 and 2012 as lower limits, we find evidence of a nearly flat core spectrum across 15 and 129 GHz, which could naturally connect the 230 GHz VLBI core flux. The extremely flat spectrum is a strong indication that the jet base does not consist of a simple homogeneous plasma, but of inhomogeneous multi-energy components, with at least one component with the turn-over frequency ≳ 100 GHz. The spectral shape can be qualitatively explained if both the strongly (compact, optically thick at >100 GHz) and the relatively weakly magnetized (more extended, optically thin at <100 GHz) plasma components are colocated in the footprint of the relativistic jet.

Connecting VLBI and Gaia celestial reference frames

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zinovy Malkin

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The current state of the link problem between radio and optical celestial reference frames is considered.The main objectives of the investigations in this direction during the next few years are the preparation of a comparisonand the mutual orientation and rotation between the optical it Gaia Celestial Reference Frame (GCRFand the 3rd generation radio International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3, obtained from VLBI observations.Both systems, ideally, should be a realization of the ICRS (International Celestial Reference System at micro-arcsecond level accuracy.Therefore, the link accuracy between the ICRF and GCRF should be obtained with similar error level, which is not a trivial taskdue to relatively large systematic and random errors in source positions at different frequency bands.In this paper, a brief overview of recent work on the GCRF--ICRF link is presented.Additional possibilities to improve the GCRF--ICRF link accuracy are discussed.The suggestion is made to use astrometric radio sources with optical magnitude to 20$^m$ rather than to 18$^m$ as currently plannedfor the GCRF--ICRF link.In addition, the use of radio stars is also a prospective method to obtain independent and accurate orientation between the Gaia frame and the ICRF.

Connecting VLBI and Gaia Celestial Reference Frames

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malkin, Zinovy, E-mail: malkin@gao.spb.ru [Department of Radio Astronomy Research, The Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Institute of Earth Sciences, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Astronomy and Cosmic Geodesy Department, Kazan Federal University, Kazan (Russian Federation)

2016-09-12

The current state of the link problem between radio and optical celestial reference frames is considered. The main objectives of the investigations in this direction during the next few years are the preparation of a comparison and the mutual orientation and rotation between the optical Gaia Celestial Reference Frame (GCRF) and the 3rd generation radio International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3), obtained from VLBI observations. Both systems, ideally, should be a realization of the ICRS (International Celestial Reference System) at micro-arcsecond level accuracy. Therefore, the link accuracy between the ICRF and GCRF should be obtained with similar error level, which is not a trivial task due to relatively large systematic and random errors in source positions at different frequency bands. In this paper, a brief overview of recent work on the GCRF–ICRF link is presented. Additional possibilities to improve the GCRF–ICRF link accuracy are discussed. The suggestion is made to use astrometric radio sources with optical magnitude to 20{sup m} rather than to 18{sup m} as currently planned for the GCRF–ICRF link. In addition, the use of radio stars is also a prospective method to obtain independent and accurate orientation between the Gaia frame and the ICRF.

Astrometria diferencial de precision con VLBI el triangulo de Draco (y estudios de SN1993J)

Science.gov (United States)

Ros, E.

1997-11-01

The Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) technique provides unprecedented resolutions in astronomy. In this PhD we show progress in the study of high precision phase-delay differential astrometry through observations of the radio source triangle formed by the BL-Lac objects 1803+784 and 2007+777, and the QSO 1928+738, in the Northern constellation of Draco (the Dragon), from observations carried out on 20/21 November 1991 with an intercontinental interferometric array simultaneously at the frequencies of 2.3 and 8.4 GHz. We have determined the angular separations among the three radio sources with submilliarcsecond accuracy from a weighted least squares analysis of the differential phase delay from the three celestial bodies. Our present work introduces important advances with respect to previous astrometric studies, carried out over radio source pairs separated by smaller angular distances. We have consistently modeled the parameters involved in an astrometric VLBI observation, in order to reproduce the differential phase observed for radio sources separated by almost 7o on the sky. We have demonstrated the possibility of phase-connection over these angular distances at 8.4 GHz, even at an epoch of a maximum in the solar activity. After the phase-connection we have corrected the effects of the extended structure of the radio source and of the ionosphere. This last correction is one of the main technical achievements of this thesis: it is possible to remove the ionospheric contribution with independent measurements of the ionosphere total electron content obtained at Global Positioning Systems (GPS) sites the VLBI observing stations. The triangular geometry introduces constraints in parameter space that allow a better estimation of the angular separations among the radio sources. It is possible to test the consistency of the astrometric results through the Sky-Closure, defined as the circular sum of the angular separations of the three radio sources, determined

El Nino, La Nina and VLBI Measured LOD

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Thomas A.; Gipson, J. M.; Ma, C.

1998-01-01

VLBI is one of the most important techniques for measuring Earth orientation parameters (EOP), and is unique in its ability to make high accuracy measurements of UT1, and its time derivative, which is related to changes in the length of day, conventionally called LOD. These measurements of EOP give constraints on geophysical models of the solid-Earth, atmosphere and oceans. Changes in EOP are due either to external torques from gravitational forces, or to the exchange of angular momentum between the Earth, atmosphere and oceans. The effect of the external torques is strictly harmonic and nature, and is therefore easy to remove. We analyze an LOD time series derived from VLBI measurements with the goal of comparing this to predictions from AAM, and various ENSO indices. Previous work by ourselves and other investigators demonstrated a high degree of coherence between atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and EOP. We continue to see this. As the angular momentum of the atmosphere increases, the rate of rotation of the Earth decreases, and vice versa. The signature of the ENSO is particularly strong. At the peak of the 1982-83 El Nino increased LOD by almost 1 ms. This was subsequently followed by a reduction in LOD of 0.75 ms. At its peak, in February of 1998, the 1997-98 El Nino increased LOD by 0.8 msec. As predicted at the 1998 Spring AGU, this has been followed by an abrupt decrease in LOD which is currently -0.4 ms. At this time (August, 1998) the current ENSO continues to develop in new and unexpected ways. We plan to update our analysis with all data available prior to the Fall AGU.

Motion and properties of nuclear radio components in Seyfert galaxies seen with VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Middelberg, E.; Roy, A. L.; Nagar, N. M.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Norris, R. P.; Wilson, A. S.; Falcke, H.; Colbert, E. J. M.; Witzel, A.; Fricke, K. J.

2004-04-01

We report EVN, MERLIN and VLBA observations at 18 cm, 6 cm and 3.6 cm of the Seyfert galaxies NGC 7674, NGC 5506, NGC 2110 and Mrk 1210 to study their structure and proper motions on pc scales and to add some constraints on the many possible causes of the radio-quietness of Seyferts. The component configurations in NGC 7674 and NGC 2110 are simple, linear structures, whereas the configurations in NGC 5506 and Mrk 1210 have multiple components with no clear axis of symmetry. We suggest that NGC 7674 is a low-luminosity compact symmetric object. Comparing the images at different epochs, we find a proper motion in NGC 7674 of (0.92±0.07) c between the two central components separated by 282 pc and, in NGC 5506, we find a 3 σ upper limit of 0.50 c for the components separated by 3.8 pc. Our results confirm and extend earlier work showing that the outward motion of radio components in Seyfert galaxies is non-relativistic on pc scales. We briefly discuss whether this non-relativistic motion is intrinsic to the jet-formation process or results from deceleration of an initially relativistic jet by interaction with the pc or sub-pc scale interstellar medium. We combined our sample with a list compiled from the literature of VLBI observations made of Seyfert galaxies, and found that most Seyfert nuclei have at least one flat-spectrum component on the VLBI scale, which was not seen in the spectral indices measured at arcsec resolution. We found also that the bimodal alignment of pc and kpc radio structures displayed by radio galaxies and quasars is not displayed by this sample of Seyferts, which shows a uniform distribution of misalignment between 0° and 90°. The frequent misalignment could result from jet precession or from deflection of the jet by interaction with gas in the interstellar medium.

Verification of the astrometric performance of the Korean VLBI network, using comparative SFPR studies with the VLBA AT 14/7 mm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rioja, María J.; Dodson, Richard; Jung, TaeHyun; Sohn, Bong Won; Byun, Do-Young; Cho, Se-Hyung; Lee, Sang-Sung; Kim, Jongsoo; Kim, Kee-Tae; Oh, Chung Sik; Han, Seog-Tae; Je, Do-Heung; Chung, Moon-Hee; Wi, Seog-Oh; Kang, Jiman; Lee, Jung-Won; Chung, Hyunsoo; Kim, Hyo Ryoung; Kim, Hyun-Goo [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daedeokdae-ro 776, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Agudo, Iván, E-mail: maria.rioja@icrar.org [Joint Institute for VLBI in Europe, Postbus 2, NL-7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); and others

2014-11-01

The Korean VLBI Network (KVN) is a new millimeter VLBI dedicated array with the capability to simultaneously observe at multiple frequencies, up to 129 GHz. The innovative multi-channel receivers present significant benefits for astrometric measurements in the frequency domain. The aim of this work is to verify the astrometric performance of the KVN using a comparative study with the VLBA, a well-established instrument. For that purpose, we carried out nearly contemporaneous observations with the KVN and the VLBA, at 14/7 mm, in 2013 April. The KVN observations consisted of simultaneous dual frequency observations, while the VLBA used fast frequency switching observations. We used the Source Frequency Phase Referencing technique for the observational and analysis strategy. We find that having simultaneous observations results in superior compensation for all atmospheric terms in the observables, in addition to offering other significant benefits for astrometric analysis. We have compared the KVN astrometry measurements to those from the VLBA. We find that the structure blending effects introduce dominant systematic astrometric shifts, and these need to be taken into account. We have tested multiple analytical routes to characterize the impact of the low-resolution effects for extended sources in the astrometric measurements. The results from the analysis of the KVN and full VLBA data sets agree within 2σ of the thermal error estimate. We interpret the discrepancy as arising from the different resolutions. We find that the KVN provides astrometric results with excellent agreement, within 1σ, when compared to a VLBA configuration that has a similar resolution. Therefore, this comparative study verifies the astrometric performance of the KVN using SFPR at 14/7 mm, and validates the KVN as an astrometric instrument.

VLBI observations of the quasars CTD20 (0234+285), OJ248 (0827+243), and 4C19.44 (1354+195), and the millimeter-x-ray connection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marscher, A.P.; Broderick, J.J.

1983-01-01

We have obtained limited VLBI data on the quasars CTD20, OJ248, and 4C19.44 at 2.8 cm. CTD20 was also observed at 6 and 18 cm. All three sources contain multicomponent structure, and rather large fractions of the 2.8-cm flux densities arise in unresolved regions. All of the radio flux density of CTD20 originates in compact components. 4C19.44 is dominated at low frequencies by a steep-spectrum component which exceeds about 7 mas in size. Above 2 GHz the spectrum is flat and variable owing to several compact components. CTD20 and OJ248 belong to a sample of millimeter-excess quasars which were shown by Owen, Helfand, and Spangler to have highly predictable ratios of 90 GHz to 2-keV flux densities. A self-Compton explanation of this relationship is supported by the existence of unresolved radio components. However, the rapid 90-GHz variability of OJ248 and other quasars with strong millimeter emission should destroy the observed tight correlation except under special circumstances. A synchrotron origin of the radio-to-x-ray emission requires that any variations in the radio should be time delayed relative to the x ray

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Observations and the Wolf-Rayet evolutionary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firmani, C.

1982-01-01

Results of a statistical analysis of massive stars and of WR stars show general agreement with the scenario that identifies the majority of the WR stars with the He-burning evolutionary phases. The duplicity, the morphological properties and the galactic distribution of the WR stars are valuable pieces of evidence that suggest correlations between the different WR types and the ''channels'' defined in the scenario. A rough analysis of the ''traffic through each channel'' is attempted. (Auth.)

NASA Space Geodesy Program: GSFC data analysis, 1992. Crustal Dynamics Project VLBI geodetic results, 1979 - 1991

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, J. W.; Ma, C.; Caprette, D. S.

1993-01-01

The Goddard VLBI group reports the results of analyzing 1648 Mark 3 data sets acquired from fixed and mobile observing sites through the end of 1991, and available to the Crustal Dynamics Project. Two large solutions were used to obtain Earth rotation parameters, nutation offsets, radio source positions, site positions, site velocities, and baseline evolution. Site positions are tabulated on a yearly basis for 1979 to 1995, inclusive. Site velocities are presented in both geocentric Cartesian and topocentric coordinates. Baseline evolution is plotted for 200 baselines, and individual length determinations are presented for an additional 356 baselines. This report includes 155 quasar radio sources, 96 fixed stations and mobile sites, and 556 baselines.

Teaching childbirth with high-fidelity simulation. Is it better observing the scenario during the briefing session?

Science.gov (United States)

Cuerva, Marcos J; Piñel, Carlos S; Martin, Lourdes; Espinosa, Jose A; Corral, Octavio J; Mendoza, Nicolás

2018-02-12

The design of optimal courses for obstetric undergraduate teaching is a relevant question. This study evaluates two different designs of simulator-based learning activity on childbirth with regard to respect to the patient, obstetric manoeuvres, interpretation of cardiotocography tracings (CTG) and infection prevention. This randomised experimental study which differs in the content of their briefing sessions consisted of two groups of undergraduate students, who performed two simulator-based learning activities on childbirth. The first briefing session included the observations of a properly performed scenario according to Spanish clinical practice guidelines on care in normal childbirth by the teachers whereas the second group did not include the observations of a properly performed scenario, and the students observed it only after the simulation process. The group that observed a properly performed scenario after the simulation obtained worse grades during the simulation, but better grades during the debriefing and evaluation. Simulator use in childbirth may be more fruitful when the medical students observe correct performance at the completion of the scenario compared to that at the start of the scenario. Impact statement What is already known on this subject? There is a scarcity of literature about the design of optimal high-fidelity simulation training in childbirth. It is known that preparing simulator-based learning activities is a complex process. Simulator-based learning includes the following steps: briefing, simulation, debriefing and evaluation. The most important part of high-fidelity simulations is the debriefing. A good briefing and simulation are of high relevance in order to have a fruitful debriefing session. What do the results of this study add? Our study describes a full simulator-based learning activity on childbirth that can be reproduced in similar facilities. The findings of this study add that high-fidelity simulation training in

VLBI FOR GRAVITY PROBE B. IV. A NEW ASTROMETRIC ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE AND A COMPARISON WITH RESULTS FROM OTHER TECHNIQUES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lebach, D. E.; Ratner, M. I.; Shapiro, I. I.; Bartel, N.; Bietenholz, M. F.; Lederman, J. I.; Ransom, R. R.; Campbell, R. M.; Gordon, D.; Lestrade, J.-F.

2012-01-01

When very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations are used to determine the position or motion of a radio source relative to reference sources nearby on the sky, the astrometric information is usually obtained via (1) phase-referenced maps or (2) parametric model fits to measured fringe phases or multiband delays. In this paper, we describe a 'merged' analysis technique which combines some of the most important advantages of these other two approaches. In particular, our merged technique combines the superior model-correction capabilities of parametric model fits with the ability of phase-referenced maps to yield astrometric measurements of sources that are too weak to be used in parametric model fits. We compare the results from this merged technique with the results from phase-referenced maps and from parametric model fits in the analysis of astrometric VLBI observations of the radio-bright star IM Pegasi (HR 8703) and the radio source B2252+172 nearby on the sky. In these studies we use central-core components of radio sources 3C 454.3 and B2250+194 as our positional references. We obtain astrometric results for IM Peg with our merged technique even when the source is too weak to be used in parametric model fits, and we find that our merged technique yields astrometric results superior to the phase-referenced mapping technique. We used our merged technique to estimate the proper motion and other astrometric parameters of IM Peg in support of the NASA/Stanford Gravity Probe B mission.

Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc Scenario with Observations of FR II Sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek, E-mail: krusinek@camk.edu.pl [Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw (Poland)

2017-10-12

The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R){sup 2} dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

PRE-DISCOVERY OBSERVATIONS OF DISRUPTING ASTEROID P/2010 A2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jewitt, David; Stuart, Joseph S.; Li Jing

2011-01-01

Solar system object P/2010 A2 is the first-noticed example of the aftermath of a recently disrupted asteroid, probably resulting from a collision. Nearly a year elapsed between its inferred initiation in early 2009 and its eventual detection in early 2010. Here, we use new observations to assess the factors underlying the visibility, especially to understand the delayed discovery. We present pre-discovery observations from the LINEAR telescope and set limits to the early-time brightness from SOHO and STEREO satellite coronagraphic images. Consideration of the circumstances of discovery of P/2010 A2 suggests that similar objects must be common, and that future all-sky surveys will reveal them in large numbers.

Detecting Changing Polarization Structures in Sagittarius A* with High Frequency VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Broderick, Avery E.; Loeb, Abraham; Rogers, Alan E. E.

2009-12-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

Science.gov (United States)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

1993-01-01

We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

First Results of the VLBI Experiment on Radar Location of the Asteroid 2012 DA14

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nechaeva M.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An international VLBI experiment on radio location of the asteroid 2012 DA14 was organized on 2013 February 15–16, during its flyby close to Earth. The purpose of observations was to investigate and specify orbital parameters of the asteroid, as well as to evaluate its rotation period and other characteristics. The irradiation of the asteroid was performed by the RT-70 transmitter at Evpatoria (Crimea, Ukraine, while the reflected signals were successfully accepted by the two 32 m radio telescopes at Medicina (Bologna, Italy and Irbene (Ventspils, Latvia. Processing and interpretation of the data were performed both in the Radiophysical Research Institute at Nizhny Novgorod and in the Ventspils International Radio Astronomy Center. The first results of this experiment are presented and discussed.

Observational tests of open strings in braneworld scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freese, Katherine; Lewis, Matthew J.; Schaar, Jan Pieter van der

2003-01-01

We consider some consequences of describing the gauge and matter degrees of freedom in our universe by open strings, as suggested by the braneworld scenario. We focus on changes in causal structure described by the open string metric and investigate their observational implications. The causal structure is described not by the usual metric g μν , but instead by the open string metric, that incorporates the electromagnetic background and the NS-NS two-form, G μν = g μν -(2 π α') 2 (F 2 ) μν. The speed of light on the brane is now slower when propagating along directions transverse to electromagnetic fields or NS-NS two-forms, so that Lorentz invariance is explicitly broken. We describe experiments designed to detect the predicted variations in the open string causal structure on the brane: interferometric laboratory based experiments, experiments exploiting astrophysical electromagnetic fields, and experiments that rely on modification to special relativity. We show that current technology cannot probe beyond open string lengths of 10 -13 cm, corresponding to MeV string scales. We also point out that in a braneworld scenario, constraints on large scale electromagnetic fields together with a modest phenomenological bound on the NS-NS two-form naturally lead to a bound on the scale of canonical noncommutativity that is two orders of magnitude below the string length. We show that theoretical constraints on the NS-NS two-form bound the scale of noncommutativity to be well below the Planck length, (vertical barθvertical bar max )(1/2) -35 cm x (TeV/stringscale) 2 . (author)

Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsvetanov, P.

1990-01-01

The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

Remote Control and Monitoring of VLBI Experiments by Smartphones

Science.gov (United States)

Ruztort, C. H.; Hase, H.; Zapata, O.; Pedreros, F.

2012-12-01

For the remote control and monitoring of VLBI operations, we developed a software optimized for smartphones. This is a new tool based on a client-server architecture with a Web interface optimized for smartphone screens and cellphone networks. The server uses variables of the Field System and its station specific parameters stored in the shared memory. The client running on the smartphone by a Web interface analyzes and visualizes the current status of the radio telescope, receiver, schedule, and recorder. In addition, it allows commands to be sent remotely to the Field System computer and displays the log entries. The user has full access to the entire operation process, which is important in emergency cases. The software also integrates a webcam interface.

INTERFEROMETRIC MONITORING OF GAMMA-RAY BRIGHT AGNs. I. THE RESULTS OF SINGLE-EPOCH MULTIFREQUENCY OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang-Sung; Wajima, Kiyoaki; Algaba, Juan-Carlos; Zhao, Guang-Yao; Hodgson, Jeffrey A.; Byun, Do-Young; Kang, Sincheol; Kim, Soon-Wook; Kino, Motoki [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Dae-Won; Park, Jongho; Kim, Jae-Young; Trippe, Sascha [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Miyazaki, Atsushi [Japan Space Forum, 3-2-1, Kandasurugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-0062 Japan (Japan); Kim, Jeong-Sook, E-mail: sslee@kasi.re.kr [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2211 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 1818588 (Japan)

2016-11-01

We present results of single-epoch very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of gamma-ray bright active galactic nuclei (AGNs) using the Korean VLBI Network (KVN) at the 22, 43, 86, and 129 GHz bands, which are part of a KVN key science program, Interferometric Monitoring of Gamma-Ray Bright AGNs. We selected a total of 34 radio-loud AGNs of which 30 sources are gamma-ray bright AGNs with flux densities of >6 × 10{sup −10} ph cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. Single-epoch multifrequency VLBI observations of the target sources were conducted during a 24 hr session on 2013 November 19 and 20. All observed sources were detected and imaged at all frequency bands, with or without a frequency phase transfer technique, which enabled the imaging of 12 faint sources at 129 GHz, except for one source. Many of the target sources are resolved on milliarcsecond scales, yielding a core-jet structure, with the VLBI core dominating the synchrotron emission on a milliarcsecond scale. CLEAN flux densities of the target sources are 0.43–28 Jy, 0.32–21 Jy, 0.18–11 Jy, and 0.35–8.0 Jy in the 22, 43, 86, and 129 GHz bands, respectively. Spectra of the target sources become steeper at higher frequency, with spectral index means of −0.40, −0.62, and −1.00 in the 22–43 GHz, 43–86 GHz and 86–129 GHz bands, respectively, implying that the target sources become optically thin at higher frequencies (e.g., 86–129 GHz).

Imaging Simulations for the Korean VLBI Network (KVN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae-Hyun Jung

2005-03-01

Full Text Available The Korean VLBI Network (KVN will open a new field of research in astronomy, geodesy and earth science using the newest three 21m radio telescopes. This will expand our ability to look at the Universe in the millimeter regime. Imaging capability of radio interferometry is highly dependent upon the antenna configuration, source size, declination and the shape of target. In this paper, imaging simulations are carried out with the KVN system configuration. Five test images were used which were a point source, multi-point sources, a uniform sphere with two different sizes compared to the synthesis beam of the KVN and a Very Large Array (VLA image of Cygnus A. The declination for the full time simulation was set as +60 degrees and the observation time range was --6 to +6 hours around transit. Simulations have been done at 22GHz, one of the KVN observation frequency. All these simulations and data reductions have been run with the Astronomical Image Processing System (AIPS software package. As the KVN array has a resolution of about 6 mas (milli arcsecond at 22GHz, in case of model source being approximately the beam size or smaller, the ratio of peak intensity over RMS shows about 10000:1 and 5000:1. The other case in which model source is larger than the beam size, this ratio shows very low range of about 115:1 and 34:1. This is due to the lack of short baselines and the small number of antenna. We compare the coordinates of the model images with those of the cleaned images. The result shows mostly perfect correspondence except in the case of the 12mas uniform sphere. Therefore, the main astronomical targets for the KVN will be the compact sources and the KVN will have an excellent performance in the astrometry for these sources.

Russian State Time and Earth Rotation Service: Observations, Eop Series, Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufman, M.; Pasynok, S.

2010-01-01

Russian State Time, Frequency and Earth Rotation Service provides the official EOP data and time for use in scientific, technical and metrological works in Russia. The observations of GLONASS and GPS on 30 stations in Russia, and also the Russian and worldwide observations data of VLBI (35 stations) and SLR (20 stations) are used now. To these three series of EOP the data calculated in two other Russian analysis centers are added: IAA (VLBI, GPS and SLR series) and MCC (SLR). Joint processing of these 7 series is carried out every day (the operational EOP data for the last day and the predicted values for 50 days). The EOP values are weekly refined and systematic errors of every individual series are corrected. The combined results become accessible on the VNIIFTRI server (ftp.imvp.ru) approximately at 6h UT daily.

The future value of smart grids in the German electricity system. A model-based scenario analysis from 2010 to 2030; Der zukuenftige Wert von Smart Grids im deutschen Stromsystem. Eine modellgestuetzte Szenarienanalyse von 2010 bis 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koch, Matthias; Bauknecht, Dierk; Heinemann, Christoph [Oeko-Institut e.V., Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

2012-07-01

Within the E-Energy project eTelligence the effects of decentralized flexibility, provided by smart grids, have been evaluated for Germany within a model based scenario analysis for the time horizon 2010 to 2030. The observed effects include the dispatch of conventional power plants as well as the integration of renewable energies in the electricity system. The model results show to what extent decentralized flexibility can be used to integrate additional electricity supply from renewable energies, which has to be curtailed otherwise. Costs and CO{sub 2} emissions from power plants as well as the average electricity spot market price decrease at the same time. Furthermore it becomes apparent that the benefit from smart grids increases with the development of variable renewable energies, depending on the development of other flexibility options. (orig.)

Integrating Simulation Scenarios and Clinical Practices Guided by Concepts of Translational Medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Jing; Huang, Si-min; Li, Ze-jian; Feng, Lie; Lu, Chun-ting

2018-01-01

Purpose: To develop a novel method for closely and effectively integrating simulation scenarios and clinical practices to improve clinical skills training in the concepts of translational medicine. Methods: Forty-two and 38 third-year medical students in the classes of 2010 and 2009 at Jinan University were selected as an observation group and a…

A VLBI resolution of the Pleiades distance controversy.

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Carl; Reid, Mark J; Mioduszewski, Amy J; Stauffer, John R; Bower, Geoffrey C

2014-08-29

Because of its proximity and its youth, the Pleiades open cluster of stars has been extensively studied and serves as a cornerstone for our understanding of the physical properties of young stars. This role is called into question by the "Pleiades distance controversy," wherein the cluster distance of 120.2 ± 1.5 parsecs (pc) as measured by the optical space astrometry mission Hipparcos is significantly different from the distance of 133.5 ± 1.2 pc derived with other techniques. We present an absolute trigonometric parallax distance measurement to the Pleiades cluster that uses very long baseline radio interferometry (VLBI). This distance of 136.2 ± 1.2 pc is the most accurate and precise yet presented for the cluster and is incompatible with the Hipparcos distance determination. Our results cement existing astrophysical models for Pleiades-age stars. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Analysis of observations of the dwarf nova pegasi 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Shimansky, V. V.; Mitrofanova, A. A.; Borisov, N. V.; Gabdeev, M. M.

2013-06-01

Analysis of photometric and spectroscopic observations of GSC 02197-00886 at the outburst maximum (on May 8, 2010) and at the stage of relaxation towards the quiescent (on August 4, 2010) was performed. Radiation of an optically thick accretion disc with a hot boundary layer dominates the spectra, which are consistent with the spectra of a WZ Sge-type dwarf novae. In the relaxation phase, an optically thin accretion disc with radiation in the HI and HeI emission lines is observed against the background of the absorption spectrum of a white dwarf. The parameters of GSC 02197-00886, which were determined by combining the radial velocities of the components with the assumption that the secondary component is close to mainsequence stars, differ significantly from the parameters that characterize other WZ Sge-type systems. We hypothesize that the secondary component was excited in the course of the outburst and experienced long-lasting relaxation towards the main-sequence state.

Streamflow predictions under climate scenarios in the Boulder Creek Watershed at Orodell

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Q.; Williams, M. W.; Livneh, B.

2016-12-01

Mountainous areas have complex geological features and climatic variability, which limit our ability to simulate and predict hydrologic processes, especially in face to a changing climate. Hydrologic models can improve our understanding of land surface water and energy budgets in these regions. In this study, a distributed physically-based hydrologic model is applied to the Boulder Creek Watershed, USA to study streamflow conditions under future climatic scenarios. Model parameters were adjusted using observed streamflow data at 1/16th degree resolution, with a NSE value of 0.69. The results from CMIP5 models can give a general range of streamflow conditions under different climatic scenarios. Two scenarios are being applied, including the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. RCP 8.5 has higher emission concentrations than RCP 4.5, but not very significant in the period of study. Using pair t-test and Mann-Whitney test at specific grid cells to compare modeled and observed climate data, four CMIP5 models were chosen to predict streamflow from 2010 to 2025. Of the four models, two models predicted increased precipitation, while the other two models predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased minimum and maximum temperature in RCP 4.5. Average streamflow decreased by 2% 14%, while maximum SWE varies from -7% to +210% from 2010 to 2025, relative to 2006 to 2010. In RCP 8.5, three models predicted increased precipitation, while the other one model predicted decreased precipitation, and the four models predicted increased maximum and minimum temperature. Besides one model, the other three models predicted increased average streamflow by 3.5% 32%, which results from the higher increasing magnitude in precipitation. Maximum SWE varies by 6% 55% higher than that from 2006 to 2010. This study shows that average daily maximum and minimum temperature will increase toward 2025 from different climate models, while average streamflow will decrease in RCP 4

EVN observations of low-luminosity flat-spectrum active galactic nuclei

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Caccianiga, A; Marcha, MJM; Thean, A; Dennett-Thorpe, J

2001-01-01

We present and discuss the results of very-long baseline interferometry (VLBI, EVN) observations of three low-luminosity (P-5GHz <10(25) W Hz(-1)) broad emission line active galactic nuclei (AGNs) carefully selected from a sample of flat-spectrum radio sources (CLASS). Based on the total and the

3 mm GMVA Observations of Total and Polarized Emission from Blazar and Radio Galaxy Core Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Casadio

2017-10-01

Full Text Available We present total and linearly polarized 3 mm Global mm-VLBI Array (GMVA; mm-VLBI: Very Long Baseline Interferometry observations at millimetre wavelengths images of a sample of blazars and radio galaxies from the VLBA-BU-BLAZAR 7 mm monitoring program designed to probe the innermost regions of active galactic nuclei (AGN jets and locate the sites of gamma-ray emission observed by the Fermi-LAT. The lower opacity at 3 mm and improved angular resolution—on the order of 50 microarcseconds—allow us to distinguish features in the jet not visible in the 7 mm VLBA data. We also compare two different methods used for the calibration of instrumental polarisation and we analyze the resulting images for some of the sources in the sample.

MULTIBAND OPTICAL OBSERVATION OF THE P/2010 A2 DUST TAIL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Junhan [303-201, Mokdong Apartment, Mok-5-dong, Yangcheon-gu, Seoul 158-753 (Korea, Republic of); Ishiguro, Masateru [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Silim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Hanayama, Hidekazu [Ishigakijima Astronomical Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Ishigaki, Okinawa 907-0024 (Japan); Hasegawa, Sunao; Usui, Fumihiko; Sarugaku, Yuki [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Yanagisawa, Kenshi [Okayama Astrophysical Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Asaguchi, Okayama 719-0232 (Japan); Watanabe, Jun-ichi [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Yoshida, Michitoshi, E-mail: ishiguro@astro.snu.ac.kr [Hiroshima Astrophysical Science Center, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan)

2012-02-10

An inner main-belt asteroid, P/2010 A2, was discovered on 2010 January 6. Based on its orbital elements, it is considered that the asteroid belongs to the Flora collisional family, where S-type asteroids are common, while showing a comet-like dust tail. Although analysis of images taken by the Hubble Space Telescope and Rosetta spacecraft suggested that the dust tail resulted from a recent head-on collision between asteroids, an alternative idea of ice sublimation was suggested based on the morphological fitting of ground-based images. Here, we report a multiband observation of P/2010 A2 made on 2010 January with a 105 cm telescope at the Ishigakijima Astronomical Observatory. Three broadband filters, g', R{sub c} , and I{sub c} , were employed for the observation. The unique multiband data reveal that the reflectance spectrum of the P/2010 A2 dust tail resembles that of an Sq-type asteroid or that of ordinary chondrites rather than that of an S-type asteroid. Due to the large error of the measurement, the reflectance spectrum also resembles the spectra of C-type asteroids, even though C-type asteroids are uncommon in the Flora family. The reflectances relative to the g' band (470 nm) are 1.096 {+-} 0.046 at the R{sub c} band (650 nm) and 1.131 {+-} 0.061 at the I{sub c} band (800 nm). We hypothesize that the parent body of P/2010 A2 was originally S-type but was then shattered upon collision into scattering fresh chondritic particles from the interior, thus forming the dust tail.

RADIOASTRON OBSERVATIONS OF THE QUASAR 3C273: A CHALLENGE TO THE BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE LIMIT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kovalev, Y. Y.; Kardashev, N. S.; Voitsik, P. A.; Kovalev, Yu. A.; Lisakov, M. M.; Sokolovsky, K. V. [Astro Space Center of Lebedev Physical Institute, Profsoyuznaya 84/32, 117997 Moscow (Russian Federation); Kellermann, K. I. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 520 Edgemont Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903-2475 (United States); Lobanov, A. P.; Zensus, J. A.; Anderson, J. M.; Bach, U.; Kraus, A. [Max-Planck-Institute for Radio Astronomy, Auf dem Hügel 69, D-53121 (Germany); Johnson, M. D. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Gurvits, L. I. [Joint Institute for VLBI ERIC, P.O. Box 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Jauncey, D. L. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Sciences, Epping, NSW 1710 (Australia); Ghigo, F. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Rt. 28/92, Green Bank, WV 24944-0002 (United States); Ghosh, T.; Salter, C. J. [Arecibo Observatory, NAIC, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, Puerto Rico, PR 00612 (United States); Petrov, L. Yu. [Astrogeo Center, 7312 Sportsman Drive, Falls Church, VA 22043 (United States); Romney, J. D. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box O, 1003 Lopezville Road, Socorro, NM 87801-0387 (United States)

2016-03-20

Inverse Compton cooling limits the brightness temperature of the radiating plasma to a maximum of 10{sup 11.5} K. Relativistic boosting can increase its observed value, but apparent brightness temperatures much in excess of 10{sup 13} K are inaccessible using ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) at any wavelength. We present observations of the quasar 3C 273, made with the space VLBI mission RadioAstron on baselines up to 171,000 km, which directly reveal the presence of angular structure as small as 26 μas (2.7 light months) and brightness temperature in excess of 10{sup 13} K. These measurements challenge our understanding of the non-thermal continuum emission in the vicinity of supermassive black holes and require a much higher Doppler factor than what is determined from jet apparent kinematics.

Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Medicina-Noto VLBI observation of SN2013ej

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolovsky, K.; Giroletti, M.; Stagni, M.; Nanni, M.; Mahabal, A.

2013-08-01

We used the 32m radio telescopes of Istituto di Radioastronomia (INAF-IRA) in Medicina and Noto as a two-element very long baseline interferometer to search for a possible radio counterpart of SN2013ej, a type IIP supernova (CBET #3606, ATel #5228, #5229, #5230, #5237, #5243) in M74. The observations were conducted at 6.7 GHz on 2013 July 31.3 UT, 6 days after the first optical detection reported in CBET #3609.

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

2016-01-01

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

Development of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) techniques in New Zealand: Array simulation, image synthesis and analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Weston, S. D.

2008-04-01

This thesis presents the design and development of a process to model Very Long Base Line Interferometry (VLBI) aperture synthesis antenna arrays. In line with the Auckland University of Technology (AUT) Institute for Radiophysics and Space Research (IRSR) aims to develop the knowledge, skills and experience within New Zealand, extensive use of existing radio astronomical software has been incorporated into the process namely AIPS (Astronomical Imaging Processing System), MIRIAD (a radio interferometry data reduction package) and DIFMAP (a program for synthesis imaging of visibility data from interferometer arrays of radio telescopes). This process has been used to model various antenna array configurations for two proposed New Zealand sites for antenna in a VLBI array configuration with existing Australian facilities and a passable antenna at Scott Base in Antarctica; and the results are presented in an attempt to demonstrate the improvement to be gained by joint trans-Tasman VLBI observation. It is hoped these results and process will assist the planning and placement of proposed New Zealand radio telescopes for cooperation with groups such as the Australian Long Baseline Array (LBA), others in the Pacific Rim and possibly globally; also potential future involvement of New Zealand with the SKA. The developed process has also been used to model a phased building schedule for the SKA in Australia and the addition of two antennas in New Zealand. This has been presented to the wider astronomical community via the Royal Astronomical Society of New Zealand Journal, and is summarized in this thesis with some additional material. A new measure of quality ("figure of merit") for comparing the original model image and final CLEAN images by utilizing normalized 2-D cross correlation is evaluated as an alternative to the existing subjective visual operator image comparison undertaken to date by other groups. This new unit of measure is then used ! in the presentation of the

A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

2010-01-01

Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

Scenarios for power production with biomass in the Finnish forest industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nousiainen, I.K.; Malinen, H.O.; Villa, A.O.

1997-01-01

This study presents three scenarios for power production with biomass in Finnish pulp and paper mills. The basic scenario assumes that the production capacity in the forest industry increases as in the past. The green energy scenario assumes that there is a strong demand from the market for sustainable green energy production. The maximum scenario assumes that the production capacity of chemical pulp increases significantly and the use of wood raw material extends to the maximum level. According to the basic scenario the use of biofuels in the pulp and paper mills will increase from starting level, 3.24 Mtoe in 1992, to 5.07 Mtoe by the year 2010. The utilization potential of biofuels will increase to 5.45 Mtoe in green energy and to 6.43 Mtoe in the maximum biofuels scenario. The power production with biomass will increase from the starting level, 572 MW in 1992, to 930 MW in the basic, to 1 100 MW in the green energy and to 1 670 MW in the maximum biofuels scenario by the year 2010. (author)

The 2010 Saturn's Great White Spot: Observations and models

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.

2011-12-01

On December 5, 2010, a major storm erupted in Saturn's northern hemisphere at a planetographic latitude of 37.7 deg [1]. These phenomena are known as "Great White Spots" (GWS) and they have been observed once per Saturn year since the first case confidently reported in 1876. The last event occurred at Saturn's Equator in 1990 [2]. A GWS differs from similar smaller-scale storms in that it generates a planetary-scale disturbance that spreads zonally spanning the whole latitude band. We report on the evolution and motions of the 2010 GWS and its associated disturbance during the months following the outbreak, based mainly on high quality images obtained in the visual range submitted to the International Outer Planet Watch PVOL database [3], with the 1m telescope at Pic-du-Midi Observatory and the 2.2 m telescope at Calar Alto Observatory. The GWS "head source" extinguished by June 2011 implying that it survived about 6 months. Since this source is assumed to be produced by water moist convection, a reservoir of water vapor must exist at a depth of 10 bar and at the same time a disturbance producing the necessary convergence to trigger the ascending motions. The high temporal sampling and coverage allowed us to study the dynamics of the GWS in detail and the multi-wavelength observations provide information on its cloud top structure. We present non-linear simulations using the EPIC code of the evolution of the potential vorticity generated by a continuous Gaussian heat source extending from 10 bar to about 1 bar, that compare extraordinary well to the observed cloud field evolution. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07. The presentation is done on behalf of the team listed in Reference [1]. [1]Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 475, 71-74 (2011) [2]Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 353, 397-401 (1991) [3]Hueso R., et al., Planet. Space Sci., 58, 1152-1159 (2010).

Beyond the usual mapping functions in GPS, VLBI and Deep Space tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Barriot, Jean-Pierre; Serafini, Jonathan; Sichoix, Lydie

2014-05-01

We describe here a new algorithm to model the water contents of the atmosphere (including ZWD) from GPS slant wet delays relative to a single receiver. We first make the assumption that the water vapor contents are mainly governed by a scale height (exponential law), and secondly that the departures from this decaying exponential can be mapped as a set of low degree 3D Zernike functions (w.r.t. space) and Tchebyshev polynomials (w.r.t. time.) We compare this new algorithm with previous algorithms known as mapping functions in GPS, VLBI and Deep Space tracking and give an example with data acquired over a one day time span at the Geodesy Observatory of Tahiti.

A Static Displacement Monitoring System for VLBI Antenna Using Close-Range Photogrammetry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyukgil Kim

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, a static displacement monitoring program was developed to maintain the accurate performance of a Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI antenna by monitoring its structural stability. The monitoring program was designed to measure static displacement, among the many displacements of the antenna’s main reflector, which can directly affect its performance. The program measures the position of a monitored object with mm-level accuracy through close-range photogrammetry that uses high-resolution Charge Coupled Device (CCD cameras. The developed program will be used to evaluate the structural soundness of an antenna based on continuous displacement measurements, which can also be used as basic data for repair and reinforcement work in the future.

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

The Extragalactic Lens VLBI Imaging Survey (ELVIS): Investigating galaxy cores and black holes with gravitational lens central images

Science.gov (United States)

Boyce, Edward R.

This thesis describes the Extragalactic Lens VLBI Imaging Survey (ELVIS), a search for central images in gravitational lenses. We present the first four ELVIS targets, for which we have radio VLBI observations with resolutions of a few milli-arcseconds and sensitivities of 15 - 38mJy. For PMN J1838-3427, CLASS B0739+366 and CLASS B0445+123 we have not detected any central images, but have set stringent upper limits on their flux densities. For CLASS B2319+051 we have made a tentative detection of a third radio source, which may be either a central image or radio emission from the lens galaxy. Using the upper limits on the central image flux densities, we gain new information about the matter distributions in the lens galaxies of these systems. We fit a broken power law model for the matter profile, and constrain the allowed break radii and inner index of this model. To demagnify the central images to the observed level the matter profiles must be slightly shallower than or steeper than isothermal, which is consistent with previous studies of early type galaxy profiles. The presence of a super-massive black hole weakens the constraints somewhat, but the profiles are still close to isothermal. Relative to previous work, we reduce the maximum sizes of shallow cores by factors of 2 to 3, and raise the indices of r 0( r -g central cusps by g = 0.05 - 0.35. If we take the source in B2319+051 to be a central image, then we select a narrow band of allowed break radii and inner indices, finding that a constant density core has size 150--380 pc, and a pure power law has index g = 1.5 - 1.67. Our constraints still allow sufficiently shallow profiles that some super-massive black holes may form central image pairs rather than eliminating the central image, and these image pairs may be detected with future instruments. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)

Least cost 100% renewable electricity scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliston, Ben; MacGill, Iain; Diesendorf, Mark

2013-01-01

Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario

Radio observations of the γ-ray quasar 0528+134. Superluminal motion and an extreme scattering event.

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, M.; Reich, W.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Standke, K.; Britzen, S.; Reuter, H. P.; Reich, P.; Schlickeiser, R.; Fiedler, R. L.; Waltman, E. B.; Ghigo, F. D.; Johnston, K. J.

1995-11-01

We report on multifrequency radio observations made with the Effelsberg 100-m telescope, the IRAM 30-m telescope and the Green Bank Interferometer between 1992 and 1994 of the γ-ray quasar 0528+134. We present a new VLBI based map of 0528+134 at 22GHz with sub-mas angular resolution observed in November 1992. At that time the source was in a phase of brightening at all of our observing frequencies above 3GHz. The increase of brightness may be related to activity in the unresolved core component of the quasar. The VLBI map at 22GHz (epoch 1992.85) shows a one-sided core jet structure of ~5mas length. A new component close to the core indicates an apparent transverse velocity of β_app_object of the AGN and that a remnant of this outburst moved further outward in the jet until it became optically thin at radio frequencies after a few months. During the flare in July 1993 we observed with the Effelsberg 100-m telescope an unusually strong decrease of the flux density by about 50% at 4.75GHz and 10.55GHz and slightly less at 2.695GHz. This behaviour is also seen in the monitoring data at 2.25GHz and 8.3GHz taken with the Green Bank Interferometer (NRL-GBI). The event lasted less than three days at the higher frequencies and more than two weeks at 2.25GHz. For the case that this event is related to the intense radio flare some geometrical effects like a small variation of the viewing angle of the quasars jet orientated very close to the line of sight are considered, but found to be an unlikely explanation for the observed behaviour. Alternatively, an extreme scattering event by a small dense plasma cloud in the line of sight is able to match the observed time lag in the lightcurves if we take into account the mas-structure of the source and different spectra of the components on the basis of their brightness in the VLBI maps. The importance of interstellar scattering is stressed as 0528+134 is seen in the direction of the dark cloud Barnard 30 located at 400pc distance

BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios, E-mail: junhankim@email.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher J. Cifelli

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

A two-level approach to VLBI terrestrial and celestial reference frames using both least-squares adjustment and Kalman filter algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Soja, B.; Krasna, H.; Boehm, J.; Gross, R. S.; Abbondanza, C.; Chin, T. M.; Heflin, M. B.; Parker, J. W.; Wu, X.

2017-12-01

The most recent realizations of the ITRS include several innovations, two of which are especially relevant to this study. On the one hand, the IERS ITRS combination center at DGFI-TUM introduced a two-level approach with DTRF2014, consisting of a classical deterministic frame based on normal equations and an optional coordinate time series of non-tidal displacements calculated from geophysical loading models. On the other hand, the JTRF2014 by the combination center at JPL is a time series representation of the ITRF determined by Kalman filtering. Both the JTRF2014 and the second level of the DTRF2014 are thus able to take into account short-term variations in the station coordinates. In this study, based on VLBI data, we combine these two approaches, applying them to the determination of both terrestrial and celestial reference frames. Our product has two levels like DTRF2014, with the second level being a Kalman filter solution like JTRF2014. First, we compute a classical TRF and CRF in a global least-squares adjustment by stacking normal equations from 5446 VLBI sessions between 1979 and 2016 using the Vienna VLBI and Satellite Software VieVS (solution level 1). Next, we obtain coordinate residuals from the global adjustment by applying the level-1 TRF and CRF in the single-session analysis and estimating coordinate offsets. These residuals are fed into a Kalman filter and smoother, taking into account the stochastic properties of the individual stations and radio sources. The resulting coordinate time series (solution level 2) serve as an additional layer representing irregular variations not considered in the first level of our approach. Both levels of our solution are implemented in VieVS in order to test their individual and combined performance regarding the repeatabilities of estimated baseline lengths, EOP, and radio source coordinates.

Fiscal 2000 survey on electrical power supply system for the purpose of reducing greenhouse effect gas. Three scenarios for spread of distributed power generation by 2010; 2000 nendo onshitsu koka gas sakugen no tame no denryoku kyokyu system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. 2010 nen made no bunsangata dengen fukyu ni kansuru mittsu no scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-03-01

An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)

Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Sun Jeong

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Long-term mass variations from SLR, VLBI and GPS data

Science.gov (United States)

Luceri, Vincenza; Sciarretta, Cecilia; Bianco, Giuseppe

2013-04-01

The second-degree geopotential coefficients reflect the behaviour of the Earth's inertia tensor of order 2 which describes the main mass variations of our planet impacting polar motion and length of day (EOP). SLR, VLBI and GPS allow the estimation of those variations, either directly in the case of SLR through its dynamics, and indirectly, for all the three geodetic techniques, by deriving excitation functions from the EOP estimations. The geodetic estimates include the influence of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, both from their mass and motion components, which can be modelled using the atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta variations. The different C21, S21 and C20 geodetic time series are compared in order to evaluate their coherence and their response to the mass variations after the removal of the motion terms. Moreover, the residual signal contents of the geodetic values, deprived by the atmospheric and oceanic mass and motion components, will be investigated.

High-resolution observations of quasars from the Parkes +- 40 sample

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, R.S.; Spencer, R.E.; Stannard, D.; Baath, L.B.

1979-01-01

VLBI observations of 20 compact quasars have been made between Jodrell Bank and Onsala at a frequency of 1666 MHz. Twelve of the quasars have inverted or peaked spectra at centimetre wavelengths and these are all unresolved, having angular diameters of < 0.015 arcsec. Two out of five quasars with overall flat spectra are partially resolved on this scale size, as are three steep-spectrum quasars. (author)

MU head echo observations of the 2010 Geminids: radiant, orbit, and meteor flux observing biases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Kero

2013-03-01

Full Text Available We report Geminid meteor head echo observations with the high-power large-aperture (HPLA Shigaraki middle and upper atmosphere (MU radar in Japan (34.85° N, 136.10° E. The MU radar observation campaign was conducted from 13 December 2010, 08:00 UTC to 15 December, 20:00 UTC and resulted in 48 h of radar data. A total of ~ 270 Geminids were observed among ~ 8800 meteor head echoes with precisely determined orbits. The Geminid head echo activity is consistent with an earlier peak than the visual Geminid activity determined by the International Meteor Organization (IMO. The observed flux of Geminids is a factor of ~ 3 lower than the previously reported flux of the 2009 Orionids measured with an identical MU~radar setup. We use the observed flux ratio to discuss the relation between the head echo mass–velocity selection effect, the mass distribution indices of meteor showers and the mass threshold of the MU radar.

EurObserv'ER's 2010 wind power barometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-01-01

For the first time in 20 years, the growth of the global wind power market faltered, stumbling by 5.8% to 35.7 GW in 2010. On one hand, the North American market has taken a knock while the European market has slowed down, on the other hand, Asian market growth has crept up steadily and now has a grip on more than half the global market. At the end of 2010 we had 194.5 GW of wind power installed across the world among which 84.3 GW installed in the European Union. Germany and Spain lead the European Union list for installed wind power with respectively 27.21 GW and 20.68 GW but when this capacity is divided by the population, Denmark ranks first with 686, 6 kW/1000 inhabitants followed by Spain with 449.6 KW/1000 inhabitants. 2010 was a record year for offshore wind power. The offshore share of the total wind power market rose to 12.2% in 2010. First available estimates indicate that the European Union's wind energy electricity output for 2010 should reach 147 TWh, which is an 11.2% rise on 2009. In 2010, the global leading manufacturer is probably Chinese. Back to 2009, the top 4 wind turbines suppliers were Vestas (Denmark), GE Wind (Usa), Sinovel (China) and Enercon (Germany). (A.C.)

Projection Models 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

Active galactic nuclei cores in infrared-faint radio sources. Very long baseline interferometry observations using the Very Long Baseline Array

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog, A.; Middelberg, E.; Norris, R. P.; Spitler, L. R.; Deller, A. T.; Collier, J. D.; Parker, Q. A.

2015-06-01

Context. Infrared-faint radio sources (IFRS) form a new class of galaxies characterised by radio flux densities between tenths and tens of mJy and faint or absent infrared counterparts. It has been suggested that these objects are radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at significant redshifts (z ≳ 2). Aims: Whereas the high redshifts of IFRS have been recently confirmed based on spectroscopic data, the evidence for the presence of AGNs in IFRS is mainly indirect. So far, only two AGNs have been unquestionably confirmed in IFRS based on very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations. In this work, we test the hypothesis that IFRS contain AGNs in a large sample of sources using VLBI. Methods: We observed 57 IFRS with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) down to a detection sensitivity in the sub-mJy regime and detected compact cores in 35 sources. Results: Our VLBA detections increase the number of VLBI-detected IFRS from 2 to 37 and provide strong evidence that most - if not all - IFRS contain AGNs. We find that IFRS have a marginally higher VLBI detection fraction than randomly selected sources with mJy flux densities at arcsec-scales. Moreover, our data provide a positive correlation between compactness - defined as the ratio of milliarcsec- to arcsec-scale flux density - and redshift for IFRS, but suggest a decreasing mean compactness with increasing arcsec-scale radio flux density. Based on these findings, we suggest that IFRS tend to contain young AGNs whose jets have not formed yet or have not expanded, equivalent to very compact objects. We found two IFRS that are resolved into two components. The two components are spatially separated by a few hundred milliarcseconds in both cases. They might be components of one AGN, a binary black hole, or the result of gravitational lensing.

Elemental GCR Observations during the 2009-2010 Solar Minimum Period

Science.gov (United States)

Lave, K. A.; Israel, M. H.; Binns, W. R.; Christian, E. R.; Cummings, A. C.; Davis, A. J.; deNolfo, G. A.; Leske, R. A.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Stone, E. C.;

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

Science.gov (United States)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2000-01-01

Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

The nature of extragalactic radio-jets from high-resolution radio-interferometric observations

OpenAIRE

Perucho, Manel

2014-01-01

Extragalactic jets are a common feature of radio-loud active galaxies. The nature of the observed jets in relation to the bulk flow is still unclear. In particular it is not clear whether the observations of parsec-scale jets using the very long baseline interferometric technique (VLBI) reveal wave-like structures that develop and propagate along the jet, or trace the jet flow itself. In this contribution I review the evidence collected during the last years showing that the ridge-lines of he...

2005 Generation Adequacy Report on the electricity supply-demand balance in France. Update of results up to 2010 - June 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

As part of the missions assigned to it by law, RTE has completed a partial update, looking ahead to 2010, of the Generation Adequacy Report on the balance between the supply and demand for electricity, originally published in October 2005. This update takes account of known developments in generation supply during the course of 2005, in particular the growth of wind farms and combined cycle projects. The basic hypotheses used to predict possible consumption levels remain the same as those employed in the previous report. The weak growth in electricity consumption observed in 2005 can be attributed to a depressed economic climate - GDP grew by only 1.2% in 2005 - mainly affecting energy intensive industries; Residential and Commercial sectors consumption went on a continuous upwards trend. A longer period of observation is required to confirm or refute any eventual change in the longer term. Whilst awaiting further information that can be used as confirmation, this update has been carried out based on scenarios R1-R2-R3 produced for the 2005 Generation Adequacy Report. On the generation side, an initial scenario referred to as 'base case supply' is designed to identify future changes in requirements compared with existing generating facilities. It only takes account of projects that are currently in the process of being built. These include mainly wind farms begun in 2005, and the re-entry into service of four fuel-oil plants. A second scenario, referred to as 'committed projects', is based on a plausible projection for the development of wind generating facilities, with 4 GW installed by 2010, and the entry into service of three combined cycle gas turbine plants by the same year, without specifying precisely which ones will be built from among the range of projects announced. Under the 'base case supply' scenario along with the 'median demand' scenario, the risk of a shortfall or loss of load occurring exceeds the acceptable

Astrometrically registered simultaneous observations of the 22 GHz H{sub 2}O and 43 GHz SiO masers toward R Leonis Minoris using KVN and source/frequency phase referencing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dodson, Richard; Rioja, María J.; Jung, Tae-Hyun; Sohn, Bong-Won; Byun, Do-Young; Cho, Se-Hyung; Lee, Sang-Sung; Kim, Jongsoo; Kim, Kee-Tae; Oh, Chung-Sik; Han, Seog-Tae; Je, Do-Heung; Chung, Moon-Hee; Wi, Seog-Oh; Kang, Jiman; Lee, Jung-Won; Chung, Hyunsoo; Kim, Hyo-Ryoung; Kim, Hyun-Goo; Lee, Chang-Hoon, E-mail: rdodson@kasi.re.kr [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daedeokdae-ro 776, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); and others

2014-11-01

Oxygen-rich asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars can be intense emitters of SiO (v = 1 and 2, J = 1 → 0) and H{sub 2}O maser lines at 43 and 22 GHz, respectively. Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of the maser emission provide a unique tool to probe the innermost layers of the circumstellar envelopes in AGB stars. Nevertheless, the difficulties in achieving astrometrically aligned H{sub 2}O and v = 1 and v = 2 SiO maser maps have traditionally limited the physical constraints that can be placed on the SiO maser pumping mechanism. We present phase-referenced simultaneous spectral-line VLBI images for the SiO v = 1 and v = 2, J = 1 → 0, and H{sub 2}O maser emission around the AGB star R LMi, obtained from the Korean VLBI Network (KVN). The simultaneous multi-channel receivers of the KVN offer great possibilities for astrometry in the frequency domain. With this facility, we have produced images with bona fide absolute astrometric registration between high-frequency maser transitions of different species to provide the positions of the H{sub 2}O maser emission and the center of the SiO maser emission, hence reducing the uncertainty in the proper motions for R LMi by an order of magnitude over that from Hipparcos. This is the first successful demonstration of source frequency phase referencing for millimeter VLBI spectral-line observations and also where the ratio between the frequencies is not an integer.

Very long baseline interferometric observations of the hydroxyl masers in VY Canis Majoris

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, M. J.; Muhleman, D. O.

1978-01-01

Results are presented for spectral-line VLBI observations of the OH emission from VY CMa. The main-line (1665 and 1667 MHz) emission was mapped with an angular resolution of 0.02 arcsec by analyzing interferometer phase data. The main-line emission comes from many maser components of apparent size less than 0.03 arcsec which are separated by up to 0.5 arcsec. New maser features near the center of the OH spectra were detected and found to lie within the region encompassed by the low-velocity OH emission. The 1612-MHz emission was mapped by Fourier inversion of the VLBI data from two baselines. All spatially isolated maser components appeared smaller than 0.15 arcsec; however, the maser emission is very complex at most velocities. Maser components within a velocity range of 1.3 km/s are often separated by more than 1 arcsec, while components more than 10 km/s apart in each emission complex are often coincident to 0.2 arcsec.

Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

2012-01-01

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foerster, G.

2002-07-01

Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

Development of the Phase-up Technology of the Radio Telescopes: 6.7 GHz Methanol Maser Observations with Phased Hitachi 32 m and Takahagi 32 m Radio Telescopes

Science.gov (United States)

Takefuji, K.; Sugiyama, K.; Yonekura, Y.; Saito, T.; Fujisawa, K.; Kondo, T.

2017-11-01

For the sake of high-sensitivity 6.7 GHz methanol maser observations, we developed a new technology for coherently combining the two signals from the Hitachi 32 m radio telescope and the Takahagi 32 m radio telescope of the Japanese Very long baseline interferometer Network (JVN), where the two telescopes were separated by about 260 m. After the two telescopes were phased as a twofold larger single telescope, the mean signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the 6.7 GHz methanol masers observed by the phased telescopes was improved to 1.254-fold higher than that of the single dish, through a very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment on the 50 km baseline of the Kashima 34 m telescope and the 1000 km baseline of the Yamaguchi 32 m telescope. Furthermore, we compared the S/Ns of the 6.7 GHz maser spectra for two methods. One is a VLBI method and the other is the newly developed digital position switching that is a similar technology to that used in noise-canceling headphones. Finally, we confirmed that the mean S/N of method of the digital position switching (ON-OFF) was 1.597-fold higher than that of the VLBI method.

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

2010-09-01

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO 2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO 2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO 2 and NO x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO 2 control scenario, and the 2010 NO x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.

Forecasting South Africa's performance at the 2010 Commonwealth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives. This paper predicts South Africa's performance at the Delhi 2010 Commonwealth Games. Methods. Potential scenarios are developed based on South Africa's previous performances. Results. South Africa will win up to 15 gold medals and 43 medals in total. Conclusions. After Delhi 2010, the actual results ...

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Project 2010 For Dummies

CERN Document Server

Muir, Nancy C

2010-01-01

A friendly reference guide to Microsoft Project, the leading enterprise project management software. As project management software, Microsoft Project allows you to oversee your business activities effectively. You can manage resources, share project info, perform modeling and scenario analysis, and standardize reporting processes. This easy-to-understand guide is completely updated to cover the latest changes and newest enhancements to Project 2010 and shows you how to get Project 2010 to work for you. After an introduction to basic project management concepts, you'll discover the mechanics o

1969 - 2010: Multicolor Photometric Observations of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars

Science.gov (United States)

Philip, A. G. Davis

2010-05-01

From 1969 to 2010 I have been involved in a photometric study of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch stars. I started by making Stromgren four-color observations at Kitt Peak National Observatory and then Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. I had taken spectral plates of all my selected areas on which I marked all the A-type stars. These stars were then observed photometrically. New FHB stars could be identified by their large c1 indices, caused by their greater (u-b) colors. Later four new filters were added ( U V B S ). With Richard Boyle of the Vatican Observatory we observed on Mt. Graham (Arizona) on the Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope.We plan follow-up observations of the new FHB stars found.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

IVS Organization

Science.gov (United States)

2004-01-01

International VLBI Service (IVS) is an international collaboration of organizations which operate or support Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) components. The goals are: To provide a service to support geodetic, geophysical and astrometric research and operational activities. To promote research and development activities in all aspects of the geodetic and astrometric VLBI technique. To interact with the community of users of VLBI products and to integrate VLBI into a global Earth observing system.

Energy [R]evolution 2010-a sustainable world energy outlook

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teske, S.; Pregger, T.; Simon, S.; Naegler, T.; Graus, W.H.J.; Lins, C.

2011-01-01

The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to

IVS: Current Status and Future Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Behrend, D.; Nothnagel, A.; Petrachenko, W. T.; Tuccari, G.

2016-12-01

The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) is a globally operating service that coordinates and performs Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) activities through its constituent components. The VLBI activities are associated with the creation, provision, dissemination, and archiving of relevant VLBI data and products. The products mostly pertain to the determination of the celestial and terrestrial reference frames, the Earth orientation parameters (EOP), atmospheric parameters as well as other ancillary parameters. The IVS observational network currently consists of about 40 radio telescopes worldwide. Subsets of these telescopes (8-12 stations) participate in 24-hour observing sessions that are run several times per week and in 1-hour intensive sessions for UT1 determination every day. The current VLBI network was developed mainly in the 1970s and 1980s. A number of factors, including aging infrastructure and demanding new scientific requirements, started to challenge its future sustainability and relevance. In response, the IVS and other groups developed and started implementing the next generation VLBI system, called VGOS (VLBI Global Observing System), at existing and new sites. The VGOS network is expected to reach maturity in the early 2020s. We describe the current status, progress, and anticipated prospects of geodetic/astrometric VLBI and the IVS.

International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry: General Meeting Proceedings

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberg, Nancy R. (Editor); Baver, Karen D. (Editor)

2002-01-01

This volume contains the proceedings of the second General Meeting of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS), held in Tsukuba, Japan, February 4-7, 2002. The contents of this volume also appear on the IVS Web site at http://ivscc.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications/gm2002. The key-note of the second GM was prospectives for the future, in keeping with the re-organization of the IAG around the motivation of geodesy as 'an old science with a dynamic future' and noting that providing reference frames for Earth system science that are consistent over decades on the highest accuracy level will provide a challenging role for IVS. The goal of the meeting was to provide an interesting and informative program for a wide cross section of IVS members, including station operators, program managers, and analysts. This volume contains 72 papers and five abstracts of papers presented at the GM. The volume also includes reports about three splinter meetings held in conjunction with the GM: a mini-TOW (Technical Operations Workshop), the third IVS Analysis Workshop and a meeting of the analysis working group on geophysical modeling.

Atmospheric pressure loading parameters from very long baseline interferometry observations

Science.gov (United States)

Macmillan, D. S.; Gipson, John M.

1994-01-01

Atmospheric mass loading produces a primarily vertical displacement of the Earth's crust. This displacement is correlated with surface pressure and is large enough to be detected by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) measurements. Using the measured surface pressure at VLBI stations, we have estimated the atmospheric loading term for each station location directly from VLBI data acquired from 1979 to 1992. Our estimates of the vertical sensitivity to change in pressure range from 0 to -0.6 mm/mbar depending on the station. These estimates agree with inverted barometer model calculations (Manabe et al., 1991; vanDam and Herring, 1994) of the vertical displacement sensitivity computed by convolving actual pressure distributions with loading Green's functions. The pressure sensitivity tends to be smaller for stations near the coast, which is consistent with the inverted barometer hypothesis. Applying this estimated pressure loading correction in standard VLBI geodetic analysis improves the repeatability of estimated lengths of 25 out of 37 baselines that were measured at least 50 times. In a root-sum-square (rss) sense, the improvement generally increases with baseline length at a rate of about 0.3 to 0.6 ppb depending on whether the baseline stations are close to the coast. For the 5998-km baseline from Westford, Massachusetts, to Wettzell, Germany, the rss improvement is about 3.6 mm out of 11.0 mm. The average rss reduction of the vertical scatter for inland stations ranges from 2.7 to 5.4 mm.

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.N

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Maser observation in VY CMa with VERA

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Yoon Kyung

We present the results of multi-epoch VERA (VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry) observations of H2O masers at 22 GHz and ^28SiO masers at 43 GHz in the supergiant VY Canis Majoris (hereafter, VY CMa). We estimate the inner motion of H2O masers over 6 months and that of SiO masers over 1 month. Using the inner motion, we calculated the statistical parallax of VY CMa. The size of the emitting region for ^28SiO masers is R_SiO ~1.81-2.89 R_* and it is consistent with the previous study.

Scenarios of future energy intensities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

The Bologna complete sample of nearby radio sources. II. Phase referenced observations of faint nuclear sources

Science.gov (United States)

Liuzzo, E.; Giovannini, G.; Giroletti, M.; Taylor, G. B.

2009-10-01

Aims: To study statistical properties of different classes of sources, it is necessary to observe a sample that is free of selection effects. To do this, we initiated a project to observe a complete sample of radio galaxies selected from the B2 Catalogue of Radio Sources and the Third Cambridge Revised Catalogue (3CR), with no selection constraint on the nuclear properties. We named this sample “the Bologna Complete Sample” (BCS). Methods: We present new VLBI observations at 5 and 1.6 GHz for 33 sources drawn from a sample not biased toward orientation. By combining these data with those in the literature, information on the parsec-scale morphology is available for a total of 76 of 94 radio sources with a range in radio power and kiloparsec-scale morphologies. Results: The fraction of two-sided sources at milliarcsecond resolution is high (30%), compared to the fraction found in VLBI surveys selected at centimeter wavelengths, as expected from the predictions of unified models. The parsec-scale jets are generally found to be straight and to line up with the kiloparsec-scale jets. A few peculiar sources are discussed in detail. Tables 1-4 are only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

THE SOURCE STRUCTURE OF 0642+449 DETECTED FROM THE CONT14 OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Ming H.; Wang, Guang L. [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 80 Nandan Raod, 200030, Shanghai (China); Heinkelmann, Robert; Anderson, James M.; Mora-Diaz, Julian; Schuh, Harald, E-mail: mhxu@shao.ac.cn [DeutschesGeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2016-11-01

The CONT14 campaign with state-of-the-art very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data has observed the source 0642+449 with about 1000 observables each day during a continuous observing period of 15 days, providing tens of thousands of closure delays—the sum of the delays around a closed loop of baselines. The closure delay is independent of the instrumental and propagation delays and provides valuable additional information about the source structure. We demonstrate the use of this new “observable” for the determination of the structure in the radio source 0642+449. This source, as one of the defining sources in the second realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame, is found to have two point-like components with a relative position offset of −426 microarcseconds ( μ as) in R.A. and −66 μ as in decl. The two components are almost equally bright, with a flux-density ratio of 0.92. The standard deviation of closure delays for source 0642+449 was reduced from 139 to 90 ps by using this two-component model. Closure delays larger than 1 ns are found to be related to the source structure, demonstrating that structure effects for a source with this simple structure could be up to tens of nanoseconds. The method described in this paper does not rely on a priori source structure information, such as knowledge of source structure determined from direct (Fourier) imaging of the same observations or observations at other epochs. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more effective determination of the structure effect in VLBI observations.

THE SOURCE STRUCTURE OF 0642+449 DETECTED FROM THE CONT14 OBSERVATIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Ming H.; Wang, Guang L.; Heinkelmann, Robert; Anderson, James M.; Mora-Diaz, Julian; Schuh, Harald

2016-01-01

The CONT14 campaign with state-of-the-art very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data has observed the source 0642+449 with about 1000 observables each day during a continuous observing period of 15 days, providing tens of thousands of closure delays—the sum of the delays around a closed loop of baselines. The closure delay is independent of the instrumental and propagation delays and provides valuable additional information about the source structure. We demonstrate the use of this new “observable” for the determination of the structure in the radio source 0642+449. This source, as one of the defining sources in the second realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame, is found to have two point-like components with a relative position offset of −426 microarcseconds ( μ as) in R.A. and −66 μ as in decl. The two components are almost equally bright, with a flux-density ratio of 0.92. The standard deviation of closure delays for source 0642+449 was reduced from 139 to 90 ps by using this two-component model. Closure delays larger than 1 ns are found to be related to the source structure, demonstrating that structure effects for a source with this simple structure could be up to tens of nanoseconds. The method described in this paper does not rely on a priori source structure information, such as knowledge of source structure determined from direct (Fourier) imaging of the same observations or observations at other epochs. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more effective determination of the structure effect in VLBI observations.

Freight transport in 2010 : An exploration of future prices and quality of freight transport in three scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Runhaar, H.A.C.; Kuipers, Bart; Heijden, R.E.C.M. van der; Melody, W.H.

2001-01-01

Background Central to this report is the question what effects government policy can have on rates, transit times, and the reliability of freight transport. In this context, two policy scenarios were examined: one scenario where all social costs that are currently ‘external’, are passed on to

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2014-01-01

This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Jinglan; Li, Xiangzhi; Zhaojie, Cui

2010-11-01

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Solar Energetic Particle Event of 2010 August 14: Connectivity with the Solar Source Inferred from Multiple Spacecraft Observations and Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lario, D.; Kwon, R.-Y.; Raouafi, N. E. [The Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Richardson, I. G.; Thompson, B. J.; Rosenvinge, T. T. von; Mays, M. L.; Mäkelä, P. A.; Xie, H.; Thakur, N. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Bain, H. M. [Space Sciences Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 7 Gauss Way, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Zhang, M.; Zhao, L. [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States); Cane, H. V. [Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia); Papaioannou, A. [Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, GR-15 236 Penteli (Greece); Riley, P., E-mail: david.lario@jhuapl.edu [Predictive Science, 9990 Mesa Rim Road, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121 (United States)

2017-03-20

We analyze one of the first solar energetic particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 24 observed at widely separated spacecraft in order to assess the reliability of models currently used to determine the connectivity between the sources of SEPs at the Sun and spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. This SEP event was observed on 2010 August 14 by near-Earth spacecraft, STEREO-A (∼80° west of Earth) and STEREO-B (∼72° east of Earth). In contrast to near-Earth spacecraft, the footpoints of the nominal magnetic field lines connecting STEREO-A and STEREO-B with the Sun were separated from the region where the parent fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) originated by ∼88° and ∼47° in longitude, respectively. We discuss the properties of the phenomena associated with this solar eruption. Extreme ultraviolet and white-light images are used to specify the extent of the associated CME-driven coronal shock. We then assess whether the SEPs observed at the three heliospheric locations were accelerated by this shock or whether transport mechanisms in the corona and/or interplanetary space provide an alternative explanation for the arrival of particles at the poorly connected spacecraft. A possible scenario consistent with the observations indicates that the observation of SEPs at STEREO-B and near Earth resulted from particle injection by the CME shock onto the field lines connecting to these spacecraft, whereas SEPs reached STEREO-A mostly via cross-field diffusive transport processes. The successes, limitations, and uncertainties of the methods used to resolve the connection between the acceleration sites of SEPs and the spacecraft are evaluated.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

2013-12-01

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’s and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing details are

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giraud, P.N.

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO 2 emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

2009-01-01

We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

IEA World Energy Outlook 2010-A comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khatib, Hisham

2011-01-01

The World Energy Outlook 2010 is a comprehensive energy report issued by the IEA. It is rewritten annually to reflect the world's changing energy and economy realities; it also introduces new issues relevant to the energy sector. This year it dealt with Caspian Energy, Energy Poverty and Energy Subsidies. WEO is controversial in few aspects; it still promotes a 450 Scenario which has become out of reach. This year however it introduced a more realistic New Policies Scenario which will need a lot of good will and investments to accomplish. Governmental policies are going to chart future energy sector performance; increasingly this is becoming decided by non-OECD countries. A more pragmatic future energy outlook is needed to reflect developing countries priorities for growth and utilization of local resources and how to accommodate this with abatement priorities through energy efficiency measures and technologies. - Research highlights: → We critically review the findings of the IEA - World Energy Outlook 2010. → The main '450 Scenario' is no longer realistic. → Some of the other indicators like the Energy Development Index are also critically reviewed and improvements proposed.

Long-Term and Rapid Radio Variability of the Blazar 3C 454.3 in 2010-2017

Science.gov (United States)

Gorshkov, A. G.; Ipatov, A. V.; Ipatova, I. A.; Konnikova, V. K.; Mardyshkin, V. V.; Mingaliev, M. G.; Kharinov, M. A.

2018-03-01

The article presents the results of observations of the blazar 3C 454.3 (J2253+1608), obtained in 2010-2017 on the RATAN-600 radio telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory at 4.6, 8.2, 11.2, and 21.7 GHz and on the 32-m Zelenchuk and Badary radio telescopes of the Quasar VLBI Network of the Institute of Applied Astronomy at 4.84 and 8.57 GHz. Long-term variability of the radio emission is studied, as well as variability on time scales of several days and intraday variability (IDV). Two flares were observed in the long-term light curve, in 2010 and in 2015-2017. The flux density at 21.7 GHz increased by a factor of ten during these flares. The delay in the maximum of the first flare at 4.85 GHz relative to the maximum at 21.7 GHz was six months. The time scale for variability on the descending branch of the first flare at 21.7 GHz was τvar = 1.2 yrs, yielding an upper limit on the linear size of the emitting region of 0.4 pc, corresponding to an angular size of 0.06 mas. The brightness temperature during the flare exceeded the Compton limit, implying a Doppler factor δ = 3.5, consistent with the known presence of a relativistic jet oriented close to the line of sight. No significant variability on time scales from several days to several weeks was found in five sets of daily observations carried out over 120 days. IDV was detected at 8.57 GHz on the 32-m telescopes in 30 of 61 successful observing sessions, with the presence of IDV correlated with the maxima of flares. The characteristic time scale for the IDV was from two to ten hours. A number of IDV light curves show the presence of a time delay in the maxima in the light curves for simultaneous observations carried out on the Badary and Zelenchuk antennas, which are widely separated in longitude. This demonstrates that the IDV most like arises in the interstellar medium.

A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

2015-01-01

A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

Climate data used to study the potential impacts of climate change on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050) in the Philippines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, A.; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, S.D.; Maroulis, J.; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, C.J.

2016-01-01

The collection contains downscaled ERA-Interim and climate scenario data, derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5), for the Philippines. ERA-Interim (1979-2010) is the reanalysis dataset used to generate climate data in the absence of actual climate observations.

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2015-04-01

Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

OBSERVATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF MAIN-BELT COMET P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hsieh, Henry H.; Yang Bin; Haghighipour, Nader; Jedicke, Robert; Wainscoat, Richard J.; Denneau, Larry; Kaluna, Heather M.; Kleyna, Jan [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu HI 96822 (United States); Novakovic, Bojan [Department of Astronomy, Faculty of Mathematics, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 16, 11000 Belgrade (Serbia); Abe, Shinsuke; Chen Wenping; Ip, Wing; Kinoshita, Daisuke [Institute of Astronomy, National Central University, 300 Jhongda Rd, Jhongli 32001, Taiwan (China); Fitzsimmons, Alan; Lacerda, Pedro [Astronomy Research Centre, Queens University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Granvik, Mikael [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 64, 00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Grav, Tommy [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Knight, Matthew M. [Lowell Observatory, 1400 West Mars Hill Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States); Lisse, Carey M. [Planetary Exploration Group, Space Department, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Maclennan, Eric, E-mail: hsieh@ifa.hawaii.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northern Arizona University, 602 South Humphreys Street, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 (United States); and others

2012-05-15

We present observations of the recently discovered comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope (operated by the MiNDSTEp consortium) at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed to be present from 2010 August through 2011 February, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from 2010 December through 2011 August. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between 2010 August and December, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H{sub R} = 17.9 {+-} 0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of {approx}0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p = 0.05. Comparing the observed scattering surface areas of the dust coma to that of the nucleus when P/La Sagra was active, we find dust-to-nucleus area ratios of A{sub d} /A{sub N} = 30-60, comparable to those computed for fellow main-belt comets 238P/Read and P/2008 R1 (Garradd), and one to two orders of magnitude larger than for two other main-belt comets (133P/Elst-Pizarro and 176P/LINEAR). Using optical spectroscopy to search for CN emission, we do not detect any conclusive evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q{sub CN} < 6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 23} mol s{sup -1}, from which we infer an H{sub 2}O production rate of Q{sub H{sub 2O}} < 10{sup 26} mol s{sup -1}. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr

OBSERVATIONAL AND DYNAMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF MAIN-BELT COMET P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, Henry H.; Yang Bin; Haghighipour, Nader; Jedicke, Robert; Wainscoat, Richard J.; Denneau, Larry; Kaluna, Heather M.; Kleyna, Jan; Novaković, Bojan; Abe, Shinsuke; Chen Wenping; Ip, Wing; Kinoshita, Daisuke; Fitzsimmons, Alan; Lacerda, Pedro; Granvik, Mikael; Grav, Tommy; Knight, Matthew M.; Lisse, Carey M.; Maclennan, Eric

2012-01-01

We present observations of the recently discovered comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope (operated by the MiNDSTEp consortium) at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed to be present from 2010 August through 2011 February, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from 2010 December through 2011 August. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between 2010 August and December, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H R = 17.9 ± 0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ∼0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p = 0.05. Comparing the observed scattering surface areas of the dust coma to that of the nucleus when P/La Sagra was active, we find dust-to-nucleus area ratios of A d /A N = 30-60, comparable to those computed for fellow main-belt comets 238P/Read and P/2008 R1 (Garradd), and one to two orders of magnitude larger than for two other main-belt comets (133P/Elst-Pizarro and 176P/LINEAR). Using optical spectroscopy to search for CN emission, we do not detect any conclusive evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q CN 23 mol s –1 , from which we infer an H 2 O production rate of Q H 2 O 26 mol s –1 . Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is

Observations of bunch-by-bunch losses in the 2010 LHC proton physics operation

CERN Document Server

Papotti, G

2011-01-01

This document summarizes the bunch-by-bunch loss observations carried out during the 2010 proton physics run at the LHC. These observations proved beneficial to the improvement of operations, in particular in the early days of nominal intensity per bunch operation: then the plots initiated the removal of the tune split and motivated the modification of a filling scheme to remove parasitic encounters that heightened the losses on selected bunches. Along with plots from sample physics fills, summary plots for the year are shown. The colour coding is always chosen so to highlight the dependence of the losses on the filling scheme.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

1969 to 2010: Multicolor Photometric Observations of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars

Science.gov (United States)

Philip, A. G. D.

2011-04-01

From 1969 to 2010 I have been involved in a photometric study of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars and published several papers on this topic in BOTT from 1967 thru 1972. I started by making Strömgren four-color observations at Kitt Peak National Observatory and then at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. I had taken spectral plates of all my selected areas on which I marked all the A-type stars. These stars were then observed photometrically. New FHB stars could be identified by their large c indices, caused by their greater (u-b) colors. Later four new filters were added (U, V, B, S). With Richard Boyle of the Vatican Observatory we observed on Mt. Graham (Arizona) on the Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope. We are making follow-up observations of the new FHB stars found.

Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

2014-01-01

The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Recurring OH Flares towards o Ceti - I. Location and structure of the 1990s' and 2010s' events

Science.gov (United States)

Etoka, S.; Gérard, E.; Richards, A. M. S.; Engels, D.; Brand, J.; Le Bertre, T.

2017-06-01

We present the analysis of the onset of the new 2010s OH flaring event detected in the OH ground-state main line at 1665 MHz towards o Ceti and compare its characteristics with those of the 1990s' flaring event. This is based on a series of complementary single-dish and interferometric observations both in OH and H2O obtained with the Nançay Radio telescope, the Medicina and Effelsberg Telescopes, the European VLBI Network and (e)Multi-Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network. We compare the overall characteristics of o Ceti's flaring events with those that have been observed towards other thin-shell Miras, and explore the implication of these events with respect to the standard OH circumstellar-envelope model. The role of binarity in the specific characteristics of o Ceti's flaring events is also investigated. The flaring regions are found to be less than ˜400 ± 40 mas (I.e. ≤40 ± 4 au) either side of o Ceti, with seemingly no preferential location with respect to the direction to the companion Mira B. Contrary to the usual expectation that the OH maser zone is located outside the H2O maser zone, the coincidence of the H2O and OH maser velocities suggests that both emissions arise at similar distances from the star. The OH flaring characteristics of Mira are similar to those observed in various Mira variables before, supporting the earlier results that the regions where the transient OH maser emission occurs are different from the standard OH maser zone.

Improvements in Total Column Ozone in GEOSCCM and Comparisons with a New Ozone-Depleting Substances Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.

2014-01-01

The evolution of ozone is examined in the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) using old and new ozone-depleting substances (ODS) scenarios. This version of GEOSCCM includes a representation of the quasi-biennial oscillation, a more realistic implementation of ozone chemistry at high solar zenith angles, an improved air/sea roughness parameterization, and an extra 5 parts per trillion of CH3Br to account for brominated very short-lived substances. Together these additions improve the representation of ozone compared to observations. This improved version of GEOSCCM was used to simulate the ozone evolution for the A1 2010 and the newStratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) 2013 ODS scenario derived using the SPARC Lifetimes Report 2013. This new ODS scenario results in a maximum Cltot increase of 65 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), decreasing slightly to 60 pptv by 2100. Approximately 72% of the increase is due to the longer lifetime of CFC-11. The quasi-global (60degS-60degN) total column ozone difference is relatively small and less than 1Dobson unit on average and consistent with the 3-4% larger 2050-2080 average Cly in the new SPARC 2013 scenario. Over high latitudes, this small change in Cly compared to the relatively large natural variabilitymakes it not possible to discern a significant impact on ozone in the second half of the 21st century in a single set of simulations.

Simulated and observed 2010 floodwater elevations in the Pawcatuck and Wood Rivers, Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Straub, David E.; Smith, Thor E.

2014-01-01

Heavy, persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe flooding that set, or nearly set, peaks of record for streamflows and water levels at many long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Rhode Island. In response to this flood, hydraulic models of Pawcatuck River (26.9 miles) and Wood River (11.6 miles) were updated from the most recent approved U.S. Department of Homeland Security-Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance study (FIS) to simulate water-surface elevations (WSEs) for specified flows and boundary conditions. The hydraulic models were updated to Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using steady-state simulations and incorporate new field-survey data at structures, high resolution land-surface elevation data, and updated flood flows from a related study. The models were used to simulate the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood, which is the AEP determined for the 2010 flood in the Pawcatuck and Wood Rivers. The simulated WSEs were compared to high-water mark (HWM) elevation data obtained in a related study following the March–April 2010 flood, which included 39 HWMs along the Pawcatuck River and 11 HWMs along the Wood River. The 2010 peak flow generally was larger than the 0.2-percent AEP flow, which, in part, resulted in the FIS and updated model WSEs to be lower than the 2010 HWMs. The 2010 HWMs for the Pawcatuck River averaged about 1.6 feet (ft) higher than the 0.2-percent AEP WSEs simulated in the updated model and 2.5 ft higher than the WSEs in the FIS. The 2010 HWMs for the Wood River averaged about 1.3 ft higher than the WSEs simulated in the updated model and 2.5 ft higher than the WSEs in the FIS. The improved agreement of the updated simulated water elevations to observed 2010 HWMs provides a measure of the hydraulic model performance, which indicates the updated models better represent flooding at other AEPs than the existing FIS models.

Multi-scale auroral observations in Apatity: winter 2010–2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. V. Kozelov

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Routine observations of the aurora are conducted in Apatity by a set of five cameras: (i all-sky TV camera Watec WAT-902K (1/2"CCD with Fujinon lens YV2.2 × 1.4A-SA2; (ii two monochromatic cameras Guppy F-044B NIR (1/2"CCD with Fujinon HF25HA-1B (1:1.4/25 mm lens for 18° field of view and glass filter 558 nm; (iii two color cameras Guppy F-044C NIR (1/2"CCD with Fujinon DF6HA-1B (1:1.2/6 mm lens for 67° field of view. The observational complex is aimed at investigating spatial structure of the aurora, its scaling properties, and vertical distribution in the rayed forms. The cameras were installed on the main building of the Apatity division of the Polar Geophysical Institute and at the Apatity stratospheric range. The distance between these sites is nearly 4 km, so the identical monochromatic cameras can be used as a stereoscopic system. All cameras are accessible and operated remotely via Internet. For 2010–2011 winter season the equipment was upgraded by special blocks of GPS-time triggering, temperature control and motorized pan-tilt rotation mounts. This paper presents the equipment, samples of observed events and the web-site with access to available data previews.

Project 2010 Bible

CERN Document Server

Marmel, Elaine

2010-01-01

A comprehensive reference on the latest version of the leading enterprise project management software: Microsoft Project 2010. Microsoft Project allows users to manage business activities effectively by sharing project information, performing modeling and scenario analyses, standardizizing reporting processes, and more. This soup-to-nuts reference covers both the professional and standard versions of the latest iteration of Microsoft Project, as well as Project Server, so that you can efficiently manage your business projects. Veteran author Elaine Marmel begins with an overview of project man

Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian J. Peters

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Scenario guidance handbook for emergency-preparedness exercises at nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laughlin, G.J.; Martin, G.F.; Desrosiers, A.E.

1983-01-01

As part of the Emergency Preparedness Implementation Appraisal Program conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the technical assistance of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), emergency preparedness exercises are observed on an annual basis at all licensed reactor facilities. One of the significant findings to arise from these observations was that a large number of the commonly observed problems originated in the design of the scenarios used as a basis for each exercise. In an effort to help eliminate some of these problems a scenario guidance handbook has been generated by PNL for the NRC to assist nuclear power plant licensees in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises

Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goni, M.R.

1996-01-01

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D. Danny

2014-01-01

This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

Energy forecasts for France. A scenario having a particular tendency; Perspectives energetiques pour la France. Un scenario tendanciel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-03-01

This document presents in a synthetic form a description of the energy tendency ( supplies and demands) for 2010-2020. This description has been requested by the Direction of the Energy and the raw materials (DGEMP), from may to december 1999. The proposed scenario is based on a simulation and hypothesis which don't take into account the future policy and regulations as for example the decisions of the fight program against the climatic change. Tables and graphs are provided. (A.L.B.)

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

2011-01-01

combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

Infrared observations of circumstellar ammonia in OH/IR supergiants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaren, R.A.; Betz, A.L.

1980-01-01

Ammonia has been detected in the circumstellar envelopes of VY Canis Majoris, VX Sagittarii, and IRC+10420 by means of several absorption lines in the ν 2 vibration-rotation band near 950 cm -1 . The line profiles are well resolved (0.2 km s -1 resolution) and show the gas being accelerated to terminal expansion velocities near 30 km s -1 . The observations reveal a method for determining the position of the central star on VLBI maps of OH maser emission to an accuracy of approx.0''.2. A firm lower limit of 2 x 10 15 cm -2 is obtained for the NH 3 column density in VY Canis Majoris

VLBI OBSERVATIONS OF THE NEARBY TYPE IIb SUPERNOVA 2011dh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bietenholz, M. F.; Brunthaler, A.; Soderberg, A. M.; Zauderer, B.; Krauss, M.; Chomiuk, L.; Rupen, M. P.; Bartel, N.

2012-01-01

We report on phase-referenced very long baseline interferometry radio observations of the Type IIb supernova 2011dh, at times t = 83 days and 179 days after the explosion and at frequencies, respectively, of 22.2 and 8.4 GHz. We detected SN 2011dh at both epochs. At the first epoch only an upper limit on SN 2011dh's angular size was obtained, but at the second epoch, we determine the angular radius of SN 2011dh's radio emission to be 0.25 ± 0.08 mas by fitting a spherical shell model directly to the visibility measurements. At a distance of 8.4 Mpc, this angular radius corresponds to a time-averaged (since t = 0) expansion velocity of the forward shock of 21, 000 ± 7000 km s –1 . Our measured values of the radius of the emission region are in excellent agreement with those derived from fitting synchrotron self-absorbed models to the radio spectral energy distribution, providing strong confirmation for the latter method of estimating the radius. We find that SN 2011dh's radius evolves in a power-law fashion, with R∝t 0.92±0.10 .

An embedded circumnuclear disk in Mrk 273

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klockner, HR; Baan, WA

Radio observations using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and the Westerbork interferometer have been carried out to study the hydroxyl Megamaser emission in Mrk 273 at different spatial resolutions. Line and continuum observations were carried out by the European VLBI network (EVN) at 1.6

A search for AGN activity in Infrared-Faint Radio Sources (IFRS)

Science.gov (United States)

Lenc, Emil; Middelberg, Enno; Norris, Ray; Mao, Minnie

2010-04-01

We propose to observe a large sample of radio sources from the ATLAS (Australia Telescope Large Area Survey) source catalogue with the LBA, to determine their compactness. The sample consists of 36 sources with no counterpart in the co-located SWIRE survey (3.6 um to 160 um), carried out with the Spitzer Space Telescope. This rare class of sources, dubber Infrared-Faint Radio Sources (IFRS), is inconsistent with current galaxy evolution models. VLBI observations are an essential way to obtain further clues on what these objects are and why they are hidden from infrared observations. We will measure the flux densities on long baselines to determine their compactness. Only five IFRS have been previously targeted with VLBI observations (resulting in two detections). We propose using single baseline (Parkes-ATCA) eVLBI observations with the LBA at 1 Gbps to maximise sensitivity. With the observations proposed here we will increase the number of VLBI-observed IFRS from 5 to 36, allowing us to draw statistical conclusions about this intriguing new class of objects.

Hadronic origin of the TeV flare of M87 in April 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sahu, Sarira [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Circuito Exterior, C.U., A., Postal 70-543, Mexico, DF (Mexico); Palacios, Eddie [Universidad Veracruzana, Facultad de Fisica e Inteligencia Artificial, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

2015-02-01

M87 is a giant radio galaxy with FR-I morphology. It underwent three episodes of TeV flaring in recent years with the strongest one in April 2010 which was jointly monitored by MAGIC, VERITAS and H.E.S.S. We explain its spectral energy distribution in the energy range 0.3-5 TeV by assuming that the flaring occurs in the innermost region of the jet. In this region the low energy SSC photons serve as the target for the Fermi-accelerated high energy protons of energy ≤30 TeV to form a delta resonance. The TeV photons are produced from the subsequent decay of the delta resonance to neutral pions. In this scenario the observed TeV flux of April 2010 flare is fitted very well. (orig.)

Hadronic origin of the TeV flare of M87 in April 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahu, Sarira; Palacios, Eddie

2015-01-01

M87 is a giant radio galaxy with FR-I morphology. It underwent three episodes of TeV flaring in recent years with the strongest one in April 2010 which was jointly monitored by MAGIC, VERITAS and H.E.S.S. We explain its spectral energy distribution in the energy range 0.3-5 TeV by assuming that the flaring occurs in the innermost region of the jet. In this region the low energy SSC photons serve as the target for the Fermi-accelerated high energy protons of energy ≤30 TeV to form a delta resonance. The TeV photons are produced from the subsequent decay of the delta resonance to neutral pions. In this scenario the observed TeV flux of April 2010 flare is fitted very well. (orig.)

Oil markets to 2010: the impact of non-Opec oil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enav, Peter

1998-09-01

This report provides an in-depth assessment of oil development scenarios in every non-Opec oil producing country from 1998 to 2010, in addition to evaluating the extent and direction of future oil trade for Opec and non-Opec countries alike. It re-assesses world oil consumption patterns in light of the Asian financial crisis, providing a concise yet comprehensive coverage of an often-neglected oil production group. The oil market development scenario is analysed in each country, with detailed consideration of the major players providing historical production, consumption, import and export data; current oil balance - production, imports and exports; an assessment of oil development policy; analysis of potential development obstacles considering regulatory, financial, political and environmental issues; oil production and consumption projections to 2010, by type; and import and export projections to 2010, by destination and source. More than 80 tables supplying essential statistics on the world's non-Opec markets accompany the report, with maps and schematic diagrams showing existing and potential infrastructure and fields. (Author)

Observations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Synolakis, C. E.; Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J. C.; Barrientos, S. E.

2010-12-01

On 27 February 2010, a magnitude Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred just off the coast of Chile, 100km N of Concepción, causing substantial damage and loss of life on Chile’s mainland and the Juan Fernandez archipelago. The tsunami accounts for 124 victims out of about 500 fatalities. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from past tsunamis such as the giant 1960 event and tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The majority of the tsunami victims were tourists staying overnight in low lying camp grounds along the coast. A multi-disciplinary ITST was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment per established protocols. The 3-25 March ITST covered an 800km stretch of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín in various subgroups the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter Island), while Mocha Island was surveyed 21-23 May, 2010. The collected survey data includes more than 400 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum runup of 29m on a coastal bluff at Constitución and 23 m on marine terraces on Mocha. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile’s mainland both at local and regional scales. Inundation and damage also occurred several kilometers inland along rivers. Observations from the Chile tsunami are compared against the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The tsunamigenic seafloor displacements were partially characterized based on coastal uplift measurements along a 100 km stretch of coastline between Caleta Chome and Punta Morguilla. More than 2 m vertical uplift were measured on Santa Maria Island. Coastal uplift measurements in Chile are compared with tectonic land level changes

Climate change scenario data for the national parks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, D.

2003-01-01

This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

2012-06-01

Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

2006-01-01

performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario......  The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor.  In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... are used for update, however, in our proposed selective track splitting filter less number of observations are used for track update.  Much of the previous performance work [1] has been done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, which were...

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Annual energy outlook 1994: With projections to 2010

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-01-01

The Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projects and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based for the first time on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the latest in a series of computer-based energy modeling systems used over the past 2 decades by EIA and its predecessor organization, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze and forecast energy consumption and supply in the midterm period (about 20 years). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1994 and 1995 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1994). Forecast tables for 2000, 2005, and 2010 for each of the five scenarios examined in the AEO94 are provided in Appendices A through E. The five scenarios include a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO94 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly described the NEMS and the major AEO94 forecast assumptions. Appendix H summarizes the key results for the five scenarios.

The scientific activities of CERN and budget estimates for the years 2003-2010 - preliminary orientations

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

This paper presents preliminary orientations for the Long-Term Plan 2003-2010. It focuses on choices in the scientific programme, savings, organisational measures and financial scenarios to deal with the cost increase of the LHC project. The paper is presented for discussion. The outcome of this discussion, as well as the observations and recommendations of the External Review Committee, which started its work while this paper was in preparation, will be taken into account for the plan which the Management is preparing for June 2002.

The scientific activities of CERN and budget estimates for the years 2003-2010 - Preliminary orientations

CERN Document Server

2002-01-01

This paper presents preliminary orientations for the Long-Term Plan 2003-2010. It focuses on choices in the scientific programme, savings, organisational measures and financial scenarios to deal with the cost increase of the LHC project. The paper is presented for discussion. The outcome of this discussion, as well as the observations and recommendations of the External Review Committee, which started its work while this paper was in preparation, will be taken into account for the plan which the Management is preparing for June 2002.

PHOTOMETRY OF VARIABLE STARS FROM DOME A, ANTARCTICA: RESULTS FROM THE 2010 OBSERVING SEASON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Lingzhi; Zhu, Zonghong [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Macri, Lucas M.; Wang, Lifan [Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Ashley, Michael C. B.; Lawrence, Jon S.; Luong-Van, Daniel; Storey, John W. V. [School of Physics, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052 (Australia); Cui, Xiangqun; Feng, Long-Long; Gong, Xuefei; Liu, Qiang; Shang, Zhaohui; Yang, Huigen; Yang, Ji; Yuan, Xiangyan; Zhou, Xu; Zhu, Zhenxi [Chinese Center for Antarctic Astronomy, Nanjing 210008 (China); Pennypacker, Carl R. [Center for Astrophysics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States); York, Donald G., E-mail: wanglingzhi@bao.ac.cn [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics and Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

2013-12-01

We present results from a season of observations with the Chinese Small Telescope ARray, obtained over 183 days of the 2010 Antarctic winter. We carried out high-cadence time-series aperture photometry of 9125 stars with i ∼< 15.3 mag located in a 23 deg{sup 2} region centered on the south celestial pole. We identified 188 variable stars, including 67 new objects relative to our 2008 observations, thanks to broader synoptic coverage, a deeper magnitude limit, and a larger field of view. We used the photometric data set to derive site statistics from Dome A. Based on two years of observations, we find that extinction due to clouds at this site is less than 0.1 and 0.4 mag during 45% and 75% of the dark time, respectively.

Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation...

Infrared observations of circumstellar ammonia in OH/IR supergiants

Science.gov (United States)

Mclaren, R. A.; Betz, A. L.

1980-01-01

Ammonia has been detected in the circumstellar envelopes of VY Canis Majoris, VX Sagittarii, and IRC +10420 by means of several absorption lines in the nu-2 vibration-rotation band near 950 kaysers. The line profiles are well resolved (0.2 km/sec resolution) and show the gas being accelerated to terminal expansion velocities near 30 km/sec. The observations reveal a method for determining the position of the central star on VLBI maps of OH maser emission to an accuracy of approximately 0.2 arcsec. A firm lower limit of 2 x 10 to the 15th/sq cm is obtained for the NH3 column density in VY Canis Majoris.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gasparrini, Antonio; Guo, Yuming; Sera, Francesco; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Huber, Veronika; Tong, Shilu; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline; Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario; Lavigne, Eric; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidong; Osorio, Samuel; Kyselý, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Jaakkola, Jouni J K; Ryti, Niilo R I; Pascal, Mathilde; Goodman, Patrick G; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Hurtado-Diaz, Magali; Cesar Cruz, Julio; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Iñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Ragettli, Martina S; Guo, Yue Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Bell, Michelle L; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Hajat, Shakoor; Haines, Andy; Armstrong, Ben

2017-12-01

Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat

Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

2013-01-01

Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

2018-04-01

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

Research on decommissioning of nuclear facilities 2. Study on optimum scenario using the AHP (Joint research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibahara, Yuji; Morishita, Yoshitsugu; Ishigami, Tsutomu; Yanagihara, Satoshi; Arita, Yuji

2013-01-01

To implement a decommissioning project reasonably, it is necessary and important to calculate project management data beforehand as well as to select an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated. Little study on the subject of selecting an optimum scenario has been carried out, and it is one of the most important issues in terms of decision making. In FY 2009, Japan Atomic Energy Agency and University of Fukui launched the joint research of a decision making method which is important to determine a decommissioning plan. The purpose of this research is to formulate a methodology for selecting an optimum dismantling scenario among various scenarios postulated based on calculated results of project management data for FUGEN. Project management data for several dismantling scenarios postulated at FUGEN were evaluated based on actual dismantling work for feedwater heater at FUGEN, and an optimum scenario was discussed using the AHP, one of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Methods. This report describes the results of the joint research in FY 2010. (author)

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

2015-01-01

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

Impact of quasar proper motions on the alignment between the International Celestial Reference Frame and the Gaia reference frame

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.-C.; Malkin, Z.; Zhu, Z.

2018-03-01

The International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) is currently realized by the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic sources with the zero proper motion assumption, while Gaia will observe proper motions of these distant and faint objects to an accuracy of tens of microarcseconds per year. This paper investigates the difference between VLBI and Gaia quasar proper motions and it aims to understand the impact of quasar proper motions on the alignment of the ICRF and Gaia reference frame. We use the latest time series data of source coordinates from the International VLBI Service analysis centres operated at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSF2017) and Paris observatory (OPA2017), as well as the Gaia auxiliary quasar solution containing 2191 high-probability optical counterparts of the ICRF2 sources. The linear proper motions in right ascension and declination of VLBI sources are derived by least-squares fits while the proper motions for Gaia sources are simulated taking into account the acceleration of the Solar system barycentre and realistic uncertainties depending on the source brightness. The individual and global features of source proper motions in GSF2017 and OPA2017 VLBI data are found to be inconsistent, which may result from differences in VLBI observations, data reduction and analysis. A comparison of the VLBI and Gaia proper motions shows that the accuracies of the components of rotation and glide between the two systems are 2-4 μas yr- 1 based on about 600 common sources. For the future alignment of the ICRF and Gaia reference frames at different wavelengths, the proper motions of quasars must necessarily be considered.

The Medicina Station Status Report

Science.gov (United States)

Orfei, Alessandro; Orlati, Andrea; Maccaferri, Giuseppe

2013-01-01

General information about the Medicina Radio Astronomy Station, the 32-m antenna status, and the staff in charge of the VLBI observations is provided. In 2012, the data from geodetic VLBI observations were acquired using the Mark 5A recording system with good results. Updates of the hardware were performed and are briefly described.

Scientific data and climate scenarios. Study report nr 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alex, Bastien; Baillat, Alice; Francois Gemenne; Jean Jouzel

2017-05-01

The objective of this report is to present climate evolutions and their impacts according to two warming scenarios: a 2 degree increase of the average surface temperature by 2100 (i.e. the most optimistic IPCC scenario), and a 5 degree increase by 2100 (the most pessimistic scenario). As far as possible, physical, social and economic, and health impacts are assessed by 2030 and 2050. The authors notice that the differences between both scenarios are hardly discernible by 2030, but more obviously by 2050. After a brief recall on IPCC scenarios, a first part addresses the evolutions of the world climate by considering the atmosphere (temperature increase, modification of precipitation regimes), seas and oceans (temperature, currents and thermal circulation, ocean acidification, seal level rise), extreme climate events (observations and trends, main impacts on populations and infrastructures), and the cryo-sphere (observations and impacts). The second part discusses regional predictions in terms of trends and impacts for metropolitan France and its overseas territories, for Africa, and for the Asia-Pacific region. The last part briefly discusses the possibly necessary evolution of the typology chosen to determine sources of vulnerability and the level of exposure to different risks. Many appendices propose more detailed presentations on specific issues and examples. A summarised version of the report is also provided

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Simulated and observed 2010 floodwater elevations in selected river reaches in the Pawtuxet River Basin, Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Olson, Scott A.; Flynn, Robert H.; Strauch, Kellan R.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2014-01-01

Heavy, persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe flooding that set, or nearly set, peaks of record for streamflows and water levels at many long-term streamgages in Rhode Island. In response to this event, hydraulic models were updated for selected reaches covering about 56 river miles in the Pawtuxet River Basin to simulate water-surface elevations (WSEs) at specified flows and boundary conditions. Reaches modeled included the main stem of the Pawtuxet River, the North and South Branches of the Pawtuxet River, Pocasset River, Simmons Brook, Dry Brook, Meshanticut Brook, Furnace Hill Brook, Flat River, Quidneck Brook, and two unnamed tributaries referred to as South Branch Pawtuxet River Tributary A1 and Tributary A2. All the hydraulic models were updated to Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) version 4.1.0 using steady-state simulations. Updates to the models included incorporation of new field-survey data at structures, high resolution land-surface elevation data, and updated flood flows from a related study. The models were assessed using high-water marks (HWMs) obtained in a related study following the March– April 2010 flood and the simulated water levels at the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP), which is the estimated AEP of the 2010 flood in the basin. HWMs were obtained at 110 sites along the main stem of the Pawtuxet River, the North and South Branches of the Pawtuxet River, Pocasset River, Simmons Brook, Furnace Hill Brook, Flat River, and Quidneck Brook. Differences between the 2010 HWM elevations and the simulated 0.2-percent AEP WSEs from flood insurance studies (FISs) and the updated models developed in this study varied with most differences attributed to the magnitude of the 0.2-percent AEP flows. WSEs from the updated models generally are in closer agreement with the observed 2010 HWMs than with the FIS WSEs. The improved agreement of the updated simulated water elevations to

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

Science.gov (United States)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Galaxy clustering and small-scale CBR anisotropy constraints on galaxy origin scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lucchin, F.

1986-01-01

The problem of the origin of cosmic structures (galaxies, galaxy clusters,......) represents the crossroads of the modern cosmology: it is correlated both with the theoretical model of the very early universe and with most of the present observational data. In this context, galaxy origin scenarios are reviewed. The cosmological relevance of the observed clustering properties of the universe is outlined. The observational constraints, due to small-scale cosmic background radiation (CBR) anisotropies, on galaxy origin scenarios are discussed. (author)

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

2013-12-01

The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

Jet outflow and gamma-ray emission correlations in S5 0716+714

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rani, B.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Marscher, A. P.

2014-01-01

Here, using millimeter very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of the BL Lac object S5 0716+714 from August 2008 to September 2013, we investigate variations in the core flux density and orientation of the sub-parsec scale jet, i.e. position angle. The γ-ray data obtained by the Fermi Large Area Telescope are used to investigate the high-energy flux variations over the same time period. For the first time in any blazar, we report a significant correlation between the γ-ray flux variations and the position angle variations in the VLBI jet. The cross-correlation analysis also indicates a positive correlation such that the mm-VLBI core flux density variations are delayed with respect to the γ-ray flux by 82±32 days. This suggests that the high-energy emission is coming from a region located ≥(3.8±1.9) parsecs upstream of the mm-VLBI core (closer to the central black hole). Lastly, these results imply that the observed inner jet morphology has a strong connection with the observed γ-ray flares.

Chang'e 3 and Jade Rabbit's: observations and the landing zone

Science.gov (United States)

Ping, Jinsong

Chang’E-3 was launched and landed on the near side of the Moon in December 2013. It is realizing the 2nd phase of Chinese lunar scientific exploration projects. Together with the various in-situ optical observations around the landing sites, the mission carried 4 kinds of radio science experiments, cover the various lunar scientific disciplines as well as lunar surface radio astronomy studies. The key payloads onboard the lander and rover include the near ultraviolet telescope, extreme ultraviolet cameras, ground penetrating radar, very low frequency radio spectrum analyzer, which have not been used in earlier lunar landing missions. Optical spectrometer, Alpha Paticle X-ray spectrometer and Gama Ray spectrometer is also used. The mission is using extreme ultraviolet camera to observe the sun activity and geomagnetic disturbances on geo-space plasma layer of extreme ultraviolet radiation, studying space weather in the plasma layer role in the process; the mission also carries the first time lunar base optical astronomical observations. Most importantly, the topography, landforms and geological structure has been explored in detail. Additionally, the very precise Earth-Moon radio phase ranging technique was firstly tested and realized in this mission. It may increase the study of lunar dyanmics together with LLR technique. Similar to Luna-Glob landers, together with the VLBI radio beacons, the radio transponders are also set on the Chang’E-3. Transponder will receive the uplink X band radio wave transmitted from the two newly constructed Chinese deep space stations, where the high quality hydrogen maser atomic clocks have been used as local time and frequency standard. Radio science receivers have been developed by updating the multi-channel open loop Doppler receiver developed for VLBI and Doppler tracking in Yinghuo-1 and Phobos-Glob Martian missions. This experiment will improve the study of lunar dynamics, by means of measuring the lunar physical liberations

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

2007-04-15

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

2015-01-01

Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

Four-dimensional distribution of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic cloud over Europe observed by EARLINET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Pappalardo

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April–May 2010 represents a "natural experiment" to study the impact of volcanic emissions on a continental scale. For the first time, quantitative data about the presence, altitude, and layering of the volcanic cloud, in conjunction with optical information, are available for most parts of Europe derived from the observations by the European Aerosol Research Lidar NETwork (EARLINET. Based on multi-wavelength Raman lidar systems, EARLINET is the only instrument worldwide that is able to provide dense time series of high-quality optical data to be used for aerosol typing and for the retrieval of particle microphysical properties as a function of altitude. In this work we show the four-dimensional (4-D distribution of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic cloud in the troposphere over Europe as observed by EARLINET during the entire volcanic event (15 April–26 May 2010. All optical properties directly measured (backscatter, extinction, and particle linear depolarization ratio are stored in the EARLINET database available at http://www.earlinet.org. A specific relational database providing the volcanic mask over Europe, realized ad hoc for this specific event, has been developed and is available on request at http://www.earlinet.org. During the first days after the eruption, volcanic particles were detected over Central Europe within a wide range of altitudes, from the upper troposphere down to the local planetary boundary layer (PBL. After 19 April 2010, volcanic particles were detected over southern and south-eastern Europe. During the first half of May (5–15 May, material emitted by the Eyjafjallajökull volcano was detected over Spain and Portugal and then over the Mediterranean and the Balkans. The last observations of the event were recorded until 25 May in Central Europe and in the Eastern Mediterranean area. The 4-D distribution of volcanic aerosol layering and optical properties on

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Projection of the gases emissions of greenhouse effect (GEI), Colombia 1998-2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez B, Fabio; Rodriguez M, Humberto

1999-01-01

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions baseline scenario 1998-2010 was developed from the energy and no-energy sector projections. This study considered the same greenhouse gases as the 1990 inventory. One of the major findings is the increase in the participation share of the energy sector from 31% in 1990 up to 72% in 2010, while the non-energy sector decrease its share from 69% to 28% in the same period the total emissions increase from 167 mt/year in 1990 to 174 mt/year in 2010, an increase of only 4%

Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

2010-12-15

The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and Associated Resource Decoupling: 2010-2050.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Chuanbin; Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E

2018-02-06

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) methodology has previously been developed to assess the intensity of anthropogenic extraction of biomass resources. However, there is limited analysis concerning future trends of HANPP. Here we present four scenarios for global biomass demand and HANPP harv (the most key component of HANPP) from 2010 to 2050 by incorporating data on expanded historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood material, and fuelwood). The results show that the biomass demand has the lowest value in the equitability world scenario (an egalitarian vision) and the highest value in the security foremost scenario (an isolationist vision). The biomass demand for food and materials increases over time, while fuelwood demand decreases over time. Global HANPP harv rises to between 8.5 and 10.1 Pg C/yr in 2050 in the four scenarios, 14-35% above its value in 2010, and some 50% of HANPP harv is calculated to be crop residues, wood residues, and food losses in the future. HANPP harv in developing regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) increases faster than that in more-developed regions (North America and Europe), due to urbanization, population growth, and increasing income. Decoupling of HANPP harv and socioeconomic development is also discussed in this work.

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Multi-Satellite Orbit Determination Using Interferometric Observables with RF Localization Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Geeraert, Jeroen L.

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) specifically same-beam interferometry (SBI), and dual-satellite geolocation are two fields of research not previously connected. This is due to the different application of each field, SBI is used for relative interplanetary navigation of two satellites while dual-satellite geolocation is used to locate the source of a radio frequency (RF) signal. In this dissertation however, we leverage both fields to create a novel method for multi-satellite orbit determination (OD) using time difference of arrival (TDOA) and frequency difference of arrival (FDOA) measurements. The measurements are double differenced between the satellites and the stations, in so doing, many of the common errors are canceled which can significantly improve measurement precision. Provided with this novel OD technique, the observability is first analyzed to determine the benefits and limitations of this method. In all but a few scenarios the measurements successfully reduce the covariance when examining the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB). Reduced observability is encountered with geostationary satellites as their motion with respect to the stations is limited, especially when only one baseline is used. However, when using satellite pairs with greater relative motion with respect to the stations, even satellites that are close to, but not exactly in a geostationary orbit can be estimated accurately. We find that in a strong majority of cases the OD technique provides lower uncertainties and solutions far more accurate than using conventional OD observables such as range and range-rate while also not being affected by common errors and biases. We specifically examine GEO-GEO, GEO-MEO, and GEO-LEO dual-satellite estimation cases. The work is further extended by developing a relative navigation scenario where the chief satellite is assumed to have perfect knowledge, or some small amount of uncertainty considered but not estimated, while estimating the deputy

Beginning SharePoint 2010 Building Business Solutions with SharePoint

CERN Document Server

Perran, Amanda; Mason, Jennifer; Rogers, Laura

2010-01-01

Two SharePoint MVPs provide the ultimate introduction to SharePoint 2010Beginning SharePoint 2010: Building Team Solutions with SharePoint provides information workers and site managers with extensive knowledge and expert advice, empowering them to become SharePoint champions within their organizations.Provides expansive coverage of SharePoint topics, as well as specialty areas such as forms, excel services, records management, and web content managementDetails realistic usage scenarios, and includes practice examples that highlight best practices for configuration and customizationIncludes de

Very Long Baseline Interferometry: Dependencies on Frequency Stability

Science.gov (United States)

Nothnagel, Axel; Nilsson, Tobias; Schuh, Harald

2018-04-01

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) is a differential technique observing radiation of compact extra-galactic radio sources with pairs of radio telescopes. For these observations, the frequency standards at the telescopes need to have very high stability. In this article we discuss why this is, and we investigate exactly how precise the frequency standards need to be. Four areas where good clock performance is needed are considered: coherence, geodetic parameter estimation, correlator synchronization, and UT1 determination. We show that in order to ensure the highest accuracy of VLBI, stability similar to that of a hydrogen maser is needed for time-scales up to a few hours. In the article, we are considering both traditional VLBI where extra-galactic radio sources are observed, as well as observation of man-made artificial radio sources emitted by satellites or spacecrafts.

The Impact of Tourism on Curaçao’s Economy: A Scenario Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liselotte Jelsma

2011-06-01

Full Text Available As of 2010, Curaçao is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The government wants to support tourism development. However, various development strategies are possible. This article presents four scenarios of marketing and investment strategies that will affect the number of tourists from The Netherlands and North America (USA and Canada in different ways. A multiplier model was used to calculate the economic impacts of the four scenarios. By doing so, this article shows how the government’s decision to support particular marketing and investment strategies may have certain outcomes for the number of jobs in Curaçao’s tourism industry.

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Metre-wavelength fine structure in 30 extragalactic radio sources with sizes of a few arcsec

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banhatti, D.G.; Ananthakrishnan, S.; Pramesh Rao, A.

1983-01-01

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations at 327 MHz of an unbiased sample of 30 extragalactic radio sources having overall sizes between 1 and 4 arcsec, and flux densities greater than 1 Jy at 327 MHz are reported. From VLBI observations, these sources have been reported to contain compact components of sizes < approx.= to 0.02 arcsec contributing on an average about 25 per cent of the total emission at 5 HGz. The IPS observations show that about 45 per cent of the total emission at 327 MHz arises from structures of sizes between 0.05 and 0.5 arcsec (corresponding typically to 0.5 to 5 kpc). A comparison of the VLBI and IPS results indicates that the VLBI and IPS components probably refer to the same physical features in these sources. (author)

Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Vera-Aguilera

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

Observations of runoff and sediment and dissolved loads from the Greenland Ice Sheet at Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland, 2007 to 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hasholt, Bent; Mikkelsen, Andreas Peter Bech; Nielsen, Morten Holtegaard

2012-01-01

Observations from 2007 to 2010 of runoff, sediment and solute delivery from a segment of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the proglacial landscape draining into the fjord at Kangerlussuaq are presented. The observations include at least three jökulhlaups and extreme recordings from 2010...... previously published for 2007 and 2008. The average effective erosion from the catchment was 0.28 mm (min. 0.18 and max. 0.45 mm). The erosion is larger than indicated from most other locations along the GrIS, but in the same order of magnitude as erosion in other glaciated areas at the same latitude, e.......g. Norway. The sandur in the proglacial area acts as a sediment sink for a lot of the sediments from the GrIS....

A Study on the Development of Playback Control Software for Mark5B VSI System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. J. Oh

2010-06-01

Full Text Available We developed the playback control software for a high-speed playback system which is a component of the Korea-Japan Joint VLBI Correlator (KJJVC. The Mark5B system, which is a recorder and playback system used in the Korean VLBI Network (KVN, has two kinds of operation mode. That is to say, the station unit (SU mode, which is for the present Mark4 system, and the VSI mode, which is for the new VLBI standard interface (VSI system. The software for SU is already developed and widely used in the Mark4 type VLBI system, but the software for VSI has only been developed for recording. The new VLBI system is designed with a VSI interface for compatibility between different systems. Therefore, the playback control software development of the VSI mode is needed for KVN. In this work, we developed the playback control software of the Mark5B VSI mode. The developed playback control software consists of an application part for data playing back, a data input/output part for the VSI board, a module for the StreamStor RAID board, and a user interface part, including an observation time control part. To verify the performance of developed playback control software, the playback and correlation experiments were performed using the real observation data in Mark5B system and KJJVC. To check the observation time control, the data playback experiment was performed between the Mark5B and Raw VLBI Data Buffer (RVDB systems. Through the experimental results, we confirmed the performance of developed playback control software in the Mark5B VSI mode.

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Report for 2012 from the Bordeaux IVS Analysis Center

Science.gov (United States)

Charlot, Patrick; Bellanger, Antoine; Bouffet, Romuald; Bourda, Geraldine; Collioud, Arnaud; Baudry, Alain

2013-01-01

This report summarizes the activities of the Bordeaux IVS Analysis Center during the year 2012. The work focused on (i) regular analysis of the IVS-R1 and IVS-R4 sessions with the GINS software package; (ii) systematic VLBI imaging of the RDV sessions and calculation of the corresponding source structure index and compactness values; (iii) investigation of the correlation between astrometric position instabilities and source structure variations; and (iv) continuation of our VLBI observational program to identify optically-bright radio sources suitable for the link with the future Gaia frame. Also of importance is the 11th European VLBI Network Symposium, which we organized last October in Bordeaux and which drew much attention from the European and International VLBI communities.

Analysis of Brazilian SHP policy and its regulation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiago Filho, Geraldo Lucio; Rocha Galhardo, Camila; Cassia Barbosa, Adriana de; Mambeli Barros, Regina; Gracas Braga da Silva, Fernando das

2011-01-01

This article presents the main regulatory changes that occurred in the Brazilian power sector in 2009, along with the impacts these changes caused on the market, especially related to small hydropower (<30 MW). This study addresses regulatory issues based on inventory studies and records of basic projects, changes related to the compensation of the assured energy of SHPs in the Brazilian energy reallocation market, the socio-economic impact resulting from the construction of SHPs, SHPs in alternative resource auctions and finally the general outlook for the growth scenario for SHPs in Brazil according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). The overall conclusions of this investigation were that the 2008/2009 biennium was a period of great changes in the regulation of small hydropower plants in Brazil, and the SHP market has shown maturity. Additionally, despite SHP being a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry, in recent years, they have experienced policy disincentives caused by changes to rules that inhibit their growth. - Highlights: → Main regulatory changes in Brazilian Power Sector that have occurred in 2009. → The impact of these changes caused on market, especially about SHPs (<30 MW). → The Brazilian growth scenario for SHPs according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). → 2008/2009 biennium was a period of changes in the Brazilian regulation of SHPs. → SHP is a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry.

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

) current oil prices, (3) externally generated oil price forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oil prices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High Oil Price and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

Fortaleza Station Report for 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufmann, Pierre; Pereira de Lucena, A. Macilio; Sombra da Silva, Adeildo

2013-01-01

This is a brief report about the activities carried out at the Fortaleza geodetic VLBI station (ROEN: R´adio Observat´orio Espacial do Nordeste), located in Eus´ebio, CE, Brazil, during the period from January until December 2012. The observing activities were resumed in May after the major maintenance that comprised the azimuth bearing replacement. The total observational experiments consisted of 103 VLBI sessions and continuous GPS monitoring recordings.

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

VizieR Online Data Catalog: The VLBA Extragalactic Proper Motion Catalog (Truebenbach+, 2017)

Science.gov (United States)

Truebenbach, A. E.; Darling, J.

2017-11-01

We created our catalog of extragalactic radio proper motions using the 2017a Goddard VLBI global solution. The 2017a solution is computed from more than 30 years of dual-band VLBI observations --1979 August 3 to 2017 March 27. We also observed 28 objects with either no redshift or a "questionable" Optical Characteristic of Astrometric Radio Sources (OCARS; Malkin 2016ARep...60..996M) redshift at the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5m telescope and/or at Gemini North. We conducted observations on the 3.5m telescope at Apache Point Observatory with the Dual Imaging Spectrograph (DIS) from 2015 April 18 to 2016 June 30. We chose two objects for additional observations with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph-North (GMOS-N) at Gemini North Observatory. 2021+317 was observed on 2016 June 26 and 28, while 0420+417 was observed on 2016 November 8 and 26. We also observed 42 radio sources with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) in the X-band (3.6cm/8.3GHz). Our targets had all been previously observed by VLBI. Our VLBA observations were conducted in two campaigns from 2015 September to 2016 January and 2016 October to November. The final extragalactic proper motion catalog (created primarily from archival Goddard VLBI data, with redshifts obtained from OCARS) contains 713 proper motions with average uncertainties of 24μas/yr. (5 data files).

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the

The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

2013-04-01

Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, Rainer

2013-01-01

The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

Observations and Impacts from the 2010 Chilean and 2011 Japanese Tsunamis in California (USA)

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Rick I.; Admire, Amanda R.; Borrero, Jose C.; Dengler, Lori A.; Legg, Mark R.; Lynett, Patrick; McCrink, Timothy P.; Miller, Kevin M.; Ritchie, Andy; Sterling, Kara; Whitmore, Paul M.

2013-06-01

The coast of California was significantly impacted by two recent teletsunami events, one originating off the coast of Chile on February 27, 2010 and the other off Japan on March 11, 2011. These tsunamis caused extensive inundation and damage along the coast of their respective source regions. For the 2010 tsunami, the NOAA West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center issued a state-wide Tsunami Advisory based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes ranging from 0.18 to 1.43 m with the highest amplitudes predicted for central and southern California. For the 2011 tsunami, a Tsunami Warning was issued north of Point Conception and a Tsunami Advisory south of that location, with forecasted amplitudes ranging from 0.3 to 2.5 m, the highest expected for Crescent City. Because both teletsunamis arrived during low tide, the potential for significant inundation of dry land was greatly reduced during both events. However, both events created rapid water-level fluctuations and strong currents within harbors and along beaches, causing extensive damage in a number of harbors and challenging emergency managers in coastal jurisdictions. Field personnel were deployed prior to each tsunami to observe and measure physical effects at the coast. Post-event survey teams and questionnaires were used to gather information from both a physical effects and emergency response perspective. During the 2010 tsunami, a maximum tsunami amplitude of 1.2 m was observed at Pismo Beach, and over 3-million worth of damage to boats and docks occurred in nearly a dozen harbors, most significantly in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Mission Bay, and northern Shelter Island in San Diego Bay. During the 2011 tsunami, the maximum amplitude was measured at 2.47 m in Crescent City Harbor with over 50-million in damage to two dozen harbors. Those most significantly affected were Crescent City, Noyo River, Santa Cruz, Moss Landing, and southern Shelter Island. During both events, people on docks and near the ocean became at risk to

Tungsten transport in JET H-mode plasmas in hybrid scenario, experimental observations and modelling

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Angioni, C.; Mantica, P.; Pütterich, T.; Valisa, M.; Baruzzo, M.; Belli, A.E.; Belo, P.; Casson, F.J.; Challis, C.; Drewelow, P.; Giroud, C.; Hawkes, N.; Hender, T.C.; Hobirk, J.; Koskela, T.; Lauro Taroni, L.; Maggi, C.F.; Mlynář, Jan; Odstrčil, T.; Reinke, M.L.; Romanelli, M.

2014-01-01

Roč. 54, č. 8 (2014), 083028-083028 ISSN 0029-5515 Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : heavy impurity transport * H-mode hybrid scenario * neoclassical and turbulent transport Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 3.062, year: 2014 http://iopscience.iop.org/0029-5515/54/8/083028/pdf/0029-5515_54_8_083028.pdf

Summer sea ice characteristics and morphology in the Pacific Arctic sector as observed during the CHINARE 2010 cruise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Xie

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In the summer of 2010, atmosphere–ice–ocean interaction was studied aboard the icebreaker R/V Xuelong during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE, in the sea ice zone of the Pacific Arctic sector between 150° W and 180° W up to 88.5° N. The expedition lasted from 21 July to 28 August and comprised of ice observations and measurements along the cruise track, 8 short-term stations and one 12-day drift station. Ship-based observations of ice thickness and concentration are compared with ice thickness measured by an electromagnetic induction device (EM31 mounted off the ship's side and ice concentrations obtained from AMSR-E. It is found that the modal thickness from ship-based visual observations matches well with the modal thickness from the mounted EM31. A grid of 8 profiles of ice thickness measurements (four repeats was conducted at the 12-day drift station in the central Arctic (~ 86°50´ N–87°20´ N and an average melt rate of 2 cm day−1, primarily bottom melt, was found. As compared with the 2005 data from the Healy/Oden Trans-Arctic Expedition (HOTRAX for the same sector but ~ 20 days later (9 August to 10 September, the summer 2010 was first-year ice dominant (vs. the multi-year ice dominant in 2005, 70% or less in mean ice concentration (vs. 90% in 2005, and 94–114 cm in mean ice thickness (vs. 150 cm in 2005. Those changes suggest the continuation of ice thinning, less concentration, and younger ice for the summer sea ice in the sector since 2007 when a record minimum sea ice extent was observed. Overall, the measurements provide a valuable dataset of sea ice morphological properties over the Arctic Pacific Sector in summer 2010 and can be used as a benchmark for measurements of future changes.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Energetic perspectives for France at the 2010-2020 vista

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavergne, R.

1998-01-01

The 'Energy 2010-2020' group from the French general survey commission has carried out a two-years study for the forecasting of the evolution of the French energy consumption from today up to the year 2020. Three scenarios were considered which correspond to contrasted policies and behaviours of the economical agents: market competition (S1), increased participation of public authorities in industrial and economic policies (S2), environmental protection priority (S3). Identical macro-economical basic hypotheses were used in all scenarios to determine: the annual growth rate of automotive fuel taxes, the sectoral analysis of energy consumption (industry, residential, agriculture, transports), the primary energy consumption (solid mineral fuels, petroleum, natural gas, electricity, renewable energies), market shares and national production. Three questions remain to be clarified: are the scenarios too optimistic? How to evaluate the security of supplies? And how to carry out our engagements concerning the emissions of greenhouse gases? (J.S.)

Solar System Observations with the James Webb Space Telescope

Science.gov (United States)

Norwood, James; Hammel, Heidi; Milam, Stefanie; Stansberry, John; Lunine, Jonathan; Chanover, Nancy; Hines, Dean; Sonneborn, George; Tiscareno, Matthew; Brown, Michael;

Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

2016-02-01

This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

Study of atmospheric and oceanic excitations in the motion of Earth's spin axis in space

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vondrák, Jan; Ron, Cyril

2010-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 1 (2010), s. 19-28 ISSN 1214-9705 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC506; GA ČR GA205/08/0908 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10030501 Keywords : Earth orientation * nutation * geophysical excitation * VLBI Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 0.452, year: 2010 http://www.irsm.cas.c

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

INTERSTELLAR GAS FLOW PARAMETERS DERIVED FROM INTERSTELLAR BOUNDARY EXPLORER-Lo OBSERVATIONS IN 2009 AND 2010: ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Möbius, E.; Bochsler, P.; Heirtzler, D.; Kucharek, H.; Lee, M. A.; Leonard, T.; Schwadron, N. A.; Wu, X.; Petersen, L.; Valovcin, D.; Wurz, P.; Bzowski, M.; Kubiak, M. A.; Fuselier, S. A.; Crew, G.; Vanderspek, R.; McComas, D. J.; Saul, L.

2012-01-01

Neutral atom imaging of the interstellar gas flow in the inner heliosphere provides the most detailed information on physical conditions of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) and its interaction with the heliosphere. The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) measured neutral H, He, O, and Ne for three years. We compare the He and combined O+Ne flow distributions for two interstellar flow passages in 2009 and 2010 with an analytical calculation, which is simplified because the IBEX orientation provides observations at almost exactly the perihelion of the gas trajectories. This method allows separate determination of the key ISM parameters: inflow speed, longitude, and latitude, as well as temperature. A combined optimization, as in complementary approaches, is thus not necessary. Based on the observed peak position and width in longitude and latitude, inflow speed, latitude, and temperature are found as a function of inflow longitude. The latter is then constrained by the variation of the observed flow latitude as a function of observer longitude and by the ratio of the widths of the distribution in longitude and latitude. Identical results are found for 2009 and 2010: an He flow vector somewhat outside previous determinations (λ ISM∞ = 79. 0 0+3. 0 0(–3. 0 5), β ISM∞ = –4. 0 9 ± 0. 0 2, V ISM∞ 23.5 + 3.0(–2.0) km s –1 , T He = 5000-8200 K), suggesting a larger inflow longitude and lower speed. The O+Ne temperature range, T O+Ne = 5300-9000 K, is found to be close to the upper range for He and consistent with an isothermal medium for all species within current uncertainties.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Dynamics of Saturn’s 2010 Great White Spot from high-resolution Cassini ISS observations

Science.gov (United States)

Hueso, Ricardo; Sánchez-Lavega, A.; del Río-Gaztelurrutia, T.

2012-10-01

On December 5th 2010 a storm erupted in Saturn’s North Temperate latitudes which were experiencing early spring season. The storm quickly developed to a planet-wide disturbance of the Great White Spot type. The ISS instrument onboard Cassini acquired its first images of the storm on 23th December 2010 and performed repeated observations with a variety of spatial resolutions over the nearly 10 months period the storm continued active. Here we present an analysis of two of the image sequences with better spatial resolution of the mature storm when it was fully developed and very active. We used an image correlation algorithm to measure the cloud motions obtained from images separated 20 minutes and obtained 16,000 wind tracers in a domain of 60 degrees longitude per 20 degrees in latitude. Intense zonal and meridional motions accompanied the storm and reached values of 120 m/s in particular regions of the active storm. The storm released a chain of anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices at planetocentric latitudes of 36° and 32° respectively. The short time difference between the images results in estimated wind uncertainties of 15 m/s that did not allow to perform a complete analysis of the turbulence and kinetic spectrum of the motions. We identify locations of the updrafts and link those with the morphology in different observing filters. The global behaviour of the storm was examined in images separated by 10 hours confirming the intensity of the winds and the global behaviour of the vortices. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Spanish MICIIN project AYA2009-10701 with FEDER funds, by Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and by Universidad País Vasco UPV/EHU through program UFI11/55.

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasaoglu, Guzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

2012-01-01

The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO 2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO 2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO 2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO 2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35–57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29–51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles. - Highlights: ► Power-train penetration scenarios for 2010–2050 passenger road transport in Europe. ► A dedicated tool is developed to analyse H 2 production and distribution mix till 2050. ► Alternative vehicles can drastically reduce CO 2 emissions and energy demand. ► Electric vehicles could become cost competitive to conventional vehicles by 2030. ► Policies needed to create adequate momentum and guarantee decarbonised transport.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

The long-term effect of climate change on productivity of winter wheat in Denmark: a scenario analysis using three crop models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Baby, Sanmohan

2017-01-01

) A1B emission scenario for the 21st century using three process-based models; A 20-year set (1991–2010) of observed daily climate data from Aarslev, Denmark was used to form the baseline, from which the RCM data were generated. The simulation of crop growth was performed with increasing carbon...... dioxide (CO2) levels and under continuous mono-cropping system at different N input rates. Results indicated that grain yield and grain N will be reduced in the future despite increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While the increased N input may increase yield, it will not increase grain N...

Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C.E.; Park, J.M.; Yi, Sumin; Kim, J.Y.; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A.C.C.

2009-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; β N above 3, H 98 (y, 2) up to 2.0, f BS up to 0.76 and f NI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q min is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

2007-05-15

Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

1994-01-01

The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

Scenario of research on Food Service in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávia Milagres CAMPOS

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: The present study aims to investigate the scenario of research on Food Service in Brazil based on the Stricto Sensu Graduate Programs in Nutrition, research groups, and scientific production. Methods: A search of the research lines including studies related to this topic and the researchers engaged in those studies was conducted. The research groups were identified on the Directory of Research Groups in Brazil website and the profile of the scientific production was based on articles included in the Scientific Electronic Library Online database. Articles published in international journals that were related to research lines focused on food production were also searched and analyzed. Results: The search identified only two graduate programs with research lines that describe the food production as the object of study although 13 graduate programs carry out research related to Food Service, especially focused on nutritional and sanitary aspects of food. The same trend was observed in the national articles. The internationalization of these two research line results from the academic publication in 22 different journals over the past 5 years. Thirty five professors were identified and most of them hold a PhD in Food Science and Technology. The number of research groups increased from two in 2000 to twenty nine in 2010. Conclusion: The inclusion of Food Service in graduate programs is still limited. The main trend observed is towards a closer relationship with Food Science and Technology in terms of the lines of research, professional qualification, and published studies.

Analyses on the Changes of Grazing Capacity in the Three-River Headwaters Region of China under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongrong Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available On the livestock production in the Three-River Headwaters region (TRHR in the macrocontext of climatic change, this study analyzed the possible changing trends of the net primary productivity (NPP of local grasslands under four RCPs scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 during 2010–2030 with the model estimation, and the grass yield and theoretical grazing capacity under each scenario were further qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that the grassland productivity in the TRHR will be unstable under all the four scenarios. The grassland productivity will be greatly influenced by the fluctuations of precipitation and the temperature fluctuations will also play an important role during some periods. The local grassland productivity will decrease to some degree during 2010–2020 and then will fluctuate and increase slowly during 2020–2030.The theoretical grazing capacity was analyzed in this study and calculated on the basis of the grass yield. The result indicates that the theoretical grazing capacity ranges from 4 million sheep to 5 million sheep under the four scenarios and it can provide quantitative information reference for decision making on how to determine the reasonable grazing capacity, promote the sustainable development of grasslands, and so forth.

ASITA 2010 e l'importanza dell'informazione Geografica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Leonardi

2010-03-01

Full Text Available ASITA 2010 Flood in north-east, securing the 'locomotive of Italy'. Irreversible collapse, due to heavy rains and lack of proper management of funds allocated and weighted. Cranes and rooftops are occupied by protesters demanding the right to work, the right to education, the right to know the truth about the unsolved mysteries. The economic crisis keeps stalling the country. This is the scenario in which took place the 14th Conference of ASITA (Brescia - 9 / 12 November 2010, whose themes concern all aspects of local knowledge at the service of citizens and whose presenters, technicians, researchers could avoid some environmental disasters, economic geology, and then that beset the peninsula, if only there were a true disclosure of geographic information.

Twin-Telescope Wettzell (TTW)

Science.gov (United States)

Hase, H.; Dassing, R.; Kronschnabl, G.; Schlüter, W.; Schwarz, W.; Lauber, P.; Kilger, R.

2007-07-01

delay measurements, Mark 5 Memo #043, MIT Haystack Observatory. Rogers, A.E.E. (2006). Some thoughts on the calibration of broadband geodetic VLBI, Mark 5 Memo #044, MIT Haystack Observatory. Rothacher M. (2006). GGOS: the IAG contribution to Earth observation, IGS Workshop 2006 "Perspectives and Visions for 2010 and beyond", May 8-12, Darmstadt, Germany Weinreb, S., Mandi, H. (2006). Pattern and Noise Tests of ETS-Lindgren 3164-05 Quadridge/Vivaldi Antenna, California Institute of Technology. Weinreb, S. (2007). Broadband feeds, E-mail, January. Welch, Wm. J. (2005). The Allen Telescope Array, URSI, UC Berkeley, January.

Solar thermal barometer - EurObserv'ER - May 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-05-01

In 2008, the European solar thermal market put on a strong spurt only to mark time in 2009 with about 4.2 million m 2 installed, which is 443708 m 2 less year-on-year. The economic crisis has had a ripple effect on the European market in the shape of the Euro crisis at the beginning of May, so the slump seems set to continue on into 2010

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

An outburst scenario for the X-ray spectral variability in 3C 111

Science.gov (United States)

Tombesi, F.; Reeves, J. N.; Reynolds, C. S.; García, J.; Lohfink, A.

2013-09-01

We present a combined Suzaku and Swift BAT broad-band E = 0.6-200 keV spectral analysis of three 3C 111 observations obtained in 2010. The data are well described with an absorbed power-law continuum and a weak (R ≃ 0.2) cold reflection component from distant material. We constrain the continuum cutoff at EC ≃ 150-200 keV, which is in accordance with X-ray Comptonization corona models and supports claims that the jet emission is only dominant at much higher energies. Fe XXVI Lyα emission and absorption lines are also present in the first and second observations, respectively. The modelling and interpretation of the emission line is complex and we explore three possibilities. If originating from ionized-disc reflection, this should be emitted at rin ≥ 50 rg or, in the lamp-post configuration, the illuminating source should be at a height of h ≥ 30 rg above the black hole. Alternatively, the line could be modelled with a hot collisionally ionized plasma with temperature kT = 22.0^{+6.1}_{-3.2} keV or a photoionized plasma with log ξ = 4.52^{+0.10}_{-0.16} erg s-1 cm and column density NH > 3 × 1023 cm-2. However, the first and second scenarios are less favoured on statistical and physical grounds, respectively. The blueshifted absorption line in the second observation can be modelled as an ultrafast outflow (UFO) with ionization parameter log ξ = 4.47^{+0.76}_{-0.04} erg s-1 cm, column density N_H = (5.3^{+1.8}_{-1.3})× 10^{22} cm-2 and outflow velocity vout = 0.104 ± 0.006c. Interestingly, the parameters of the photoionized emission model remarkably match those of the absorbing UFO, supporting the possibility that the same material could be responsible for both emission and absorption. We suggest an outburst scenario in which an accretion disc wind, initially lying out of the line of sight and observed in emission, then crosses our view to the source and it is observed in absorption as a mildly relativistic UFO.

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

The impact of economic recession on CO2 emissions: a large diminution in 2009, what evolution for 2010-2011?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

Based on the evolution of economic growth, of the GDP, and of CO 2 emissions over the past years, and on the observation of the relationship between these data and indicators, and within the context of an economic recession which should result in a reduction of activity and therefore of CO 2 emissions, this paper tries to define scenarios for 2010 and 2011. The author outlines that some other factors may influence these evolutions, for instance the climate conditions, but also the reduction of investments which could result in a slowdown of the diffusion of new technologies and the improvement of energy efficiency

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Monika E.; Isaac, George A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Heckman, Ivan; Reid, Janti

2014-01-01

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.

Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

2012-03-01

This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

Biofuels barometer - EurObserv'ER - July 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-07-01

12.1 Mtoe of biofuels consumed in the transport sector in the EU in 2009. European Union biofuel use for transport reached the 12 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) threshold during 2009, heralding a further drop in the pace of the sector's growth, which rose by only 18.7% between 2008 and 2009 - just 1.9 mtoe of consumption over the previous year. The biofuel incorporation rate in all fuels used by transport in the EU is unlikely to pass 4% in 2009, which is a very long way short of the 5.75% goal for 2010 set in the 2003 European biofuel directive, which would require around 18 mtoe of biofuel use

Effects of stochastic energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krey, Volker; Martinsen, Dag; Wagner, Hermann-Josef

2007-01-01

In view of the currently observed energy prices, recent price scenarios, which have been very moderate until 2004, also tend to favor high future energy prices. Having a large impact on energy-economic scenarios, we incorporate uncertain energy prices into an energy systems model by including a stochastic risk function. Energy systems models are frequently used to aid scenario analysis in energy-related studies. The impact of uncertain energy prices on the supply structures and the interaction with measures in the demand sectors is the focus of the present paper. For the illustration of the methodological approach, scenarios for four EU countries are presented. Including the stochastic risk function, elements of high energy price scenarios can be found in scenarios with a moderate future development of energy prices. In contrast to scenarios with stochastic investment costs for a limited number of technologies, the inclusion of stochastic energy prices directly affects all parts of the energy system. Robust elements of hedging strategies include increasing utilization of domestic energy carriers, the use of CHP and district heat and the application of additional energy-saving measures in the end-use sectors. Region-specific technology portfolios, i.e., different hedging options, can cause growing energy exchange between the regions in comparison with the deterministic case. (author)

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2017-10-31

Groundwater withdrawals from the Upper Cretaceous-age Middendorf aquifer in South Carolina have created a large, regional cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Middendorf aquifer in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, South Carolina. Groundwater-level declines of as much as 249 feet have been observed in wells over the past 125 years and are a result of groundwater use for public water supply, irrigation, and private industry. To address the concerns of users of the Middendorf aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mount Pleasant Waterworks (MPW), recalibrated an existing groundwater-flow model to incorporate additional groundwater-use and water-level data since 2008. This recalibration process consisted of a technique of parameter estimation that uses regularized inversion and employs “pilot points” for spatial hydraulic property characterization. The groundwater-flow system of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-2000.After the model recalibration, the following six predictive water-management scenarios were created to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area: Scenario 1—maximize MPW reverse-osmosis plant capacity by increasing groundwater withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), which was the amount withdrawn in 2015, to 8.58 Mgal/d; Scenario 2—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 0.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 3—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 1.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 4—maximize MPW well capacity by increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 10.16 Mgal

A fresh look into the interacting dark matter scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Escudero, Miguel; Lopez-Honorez, Laura; Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Villanueva-Domingo, Pablo

2018-06-01

The elastic scattering between dark matter particles and radiation represents an attractive possibility to solve a number of discrepancies between observations and standard cold dark matter predictions, as the induced collisional damping would imply a suppression of small-scale structures. We consider this scenario and confront it with measurements of the ionization history of the Universe at several redshifts and with recent estimates of the counts of Milky Way satellite galaxies. We derive a conservative upper bound on the dark matter-photon elastic scattering cross section of σγ DM non-cold dark matter candidates, such as interacting and warm dark matter scenarios. Let us emphasize that bounds of similar magnitude to the ones obtained here could be also derived for models with dark matter-neutrino interactions and would be as constraining as the tightest limits on such scenarios.

Microsoft SharePoint 2010 Administration Real World Skills for MCITP Certification and Beyond (Exam 70-668)

CERN Document Server

Carpenter, Tom

2011-01-01

Delivers the information that SharePoint 2010 administrators in the field need most This book shows you how to design, deploy, and implement a SharePoint 2010 environment, providing practical skills and real-world techniques and scenarios you'll be able to apply on the job. You'll not only thoroughly learn SharePoint 2010, but you'll also get up to speed on business continuity and solutions. In addition, those preparing for the MCITP: SharePoint 2010 Administration certification exam 70-668 will find thorough coverage of all exam objectives.Shows you how to design, deploy, administer, and main

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Anthropogenic Contribution to the Southeast Pacific Precipitation Decline and Recent (2010-2015) Mega-Drought in Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Boisier, J. P.

2015-12-01

Within the large uncertainties in the precipitation response to the anthropogenic climate forcing, the projections towards dryer conditions in the southeast Pacific sector and west bound of southern South America represent a particularly robust signature in climate model simulations. A rainfall decline of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than those simulated has been observed in Chile during the last decades, but the causes of this trend have never been formally attributed. With this purpose, we analyze local rain-gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble both of fully-coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations. In concomitance with large-scale circulation changes, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation explains about 50% of the rainfall trend observed since 1979 in central Chile. Our results also indicate that the remaining fraction of the observed drying is unlikely (p Chile since 2010, emerges as a realistic scenario for this region under the current socio-economic pathway.

Theoretical Developments in Decision Field Theory: Comment on Tsetsos, Usher, and Chater (2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Hotaling, Jared M.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Li, Jiyun

2010-01-01

Tsetsos, Usher, and Chater (2010) presented several criticisms of decision field theory (DFT) involving its distance function, instability under externally controlled stopping times, and lack of robustness to various multialternative choice scenarios. Here, we counter those claims with a specification of a distance function based on the…

LUPUS I observations from the 2010 flight of the Balloon-borne large aperture submillimeter telescope for polarimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, Tristan G.; Chapman, Nicholas L.; Novak, Giles; Ade, Peter A. R.; Hargrave, Peter C.; Nutter, David; Angilè, Francesco E.; Devlin, Mark J.; Klein, Jeffrey; Benton, Steven J.; Fissel, Laura M.; Gandilo, Natalie N.; Netterfield, Calvin B.; Chapin, Edward L.; Fukui, Yasuo; Gundersen, Joshua O.; Korotkov, Andrei L.; Moncelsi, Lorenzo; Mroczkowski, Tony K.; Olmi, Luca

2014-01-01

The Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope for Polarimetry (BLASTPol) was created by adding polarimetric capability to the BLAST experiment that was flown in 2003, 2005, and 2006. BLASTPol inherited BLAST's 1.8 m primary and its Herschel/SPIRE heritage focal plane that allows simultaneous observation at 250, 350, and 500 μm. We flew BLASTPol in 2010 and again in 2012. Both were long duration Antarctic flights. Here we present polarimetry of the nearby filamentary dark cloud Lupus I obtained during the 2010 flight. Despite limitations imposed by the effects of a damaged optical component, we were able to clearly detect submillimeter polarization on degree scales. We compare the resulting BLASTPol magnetic field map with a similar map made via optical polarimetry. (The optical data were published in 1998 by J. Rizzo and collaborators.) The two maps partially overlap and are reasonably consistent with one another. We compare these magnetic field maps to the orientations of filaments in Lupus I, and we find that the dominant filament in the cloud is approximately perpendicular to the large-scale field, while secondary filaments appear to run parallel to the magnetic fields in their vicinities. This is similar to what is observed in Serpens South via near-IR polarimetry, and consistent with what is seen in MHD simulations by F. Nakamura and Z. Li.

LUPUS I observations from the 2010 flight of the Balloon-borne large aperture submillimeter telescope for polarimetry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matthews, Tristan G.; Chapman, Nicholas L.; Novak, Giles [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States); Ade, Peter A. R.; Hargrave, Peter C.; Nutter, David [Cardiff University, School of Physics and Astronomy, Queens Buildings, The Parade, Cardiff, CF24 3AA (United Kingdom); Angilè, Francesco E.; Devlin, Mark J.; Klein, Jeffrey [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Benton, Steven J.; Fissel, Laura M.; Gandilo, Natalie N.; Netterfield, Calvin B. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3H4 (Canada); Chapin, Edward L. [XMM SOC, ESAC, Apartado 78, E-28691 Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid (Spain); Fukui, Yasuo [Department of Physics, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan); Gundersen, Joshua O. [Department of Physics, University of Miami, 1320 Campo Sano Drive, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (United States); Korotkov, Andrei L. [Department of Physics, Brown University, 182 Hope Street, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Moncelsi, Lorenzo; Mroczkowski, Tony K. [California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Olmi, Luca [University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras Campus, Physics Department, Box 23343, UPR station, San Juan (Puerto Rico); and others

2014-04-01

The Balloon-borne Large Aperture Submillimeter Telescope for Polarimetry (BLASTPol) was created by adding polarimetric capability to the BLAST experiment that was flown in 2003, 2005, and 2006. BLASTPol inherited BLAST's 1.8 m primary and its Herschel/SPIRE heritage focal plane that allows simultaneous observation at 250, 350, and 500 μm. We flew BLASTPol in 2010 and again in 2012. Both were long duration Antarctic flights. Here we present polarimetry of the nearby filamentary dark cloud Lupus I obtained during the 2010 flight. Despite limitations imposed by the effects of a damaged optical component, we were able to clearly detect submillimeter polarization on degree scales. We compare the resulting BLASTPol magnetic field map with a similar map made via optical polarimetry. (The optical data were published in 1998 by J. Rizzo and collaborators.) The two maps partially overlap and are reasonably consistent with one another. We compare these magnetic field maps to the orientations of filaments in Lupus I, and we find that the dominant filament in the cloud is approximately perpendicular to the large-scale field, while secondary filaments appear to run parallel to the magnetic fields in their vicinities. This is similar to what is observed in Serpens South via near-IR polarimetry, and consistent with what is seen in MHD simulations by F. Nakamura and Z. Li.

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

Effect of lunar gravity models on Chang'E-2 orbit determination using VLBI tracking data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erhu Wei

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The precise orbit determination of Chang'E-2 is the most important issue for successful mission and scientific applications, while the lunar gravity field model with big uncertainties has large effect on Chang'E-2 orbit determination. Recently, several new gravity models have been produced using the latest lunar satellites tracking data, such as LP165P, SGM150J, GL0900D and GRGM900C. In this paper, the four gravity models mentioned above were evaluated through the power spectra analysis, admittance and coherence analysis. Effect of four lunar gravity models on Chang'E-2 orbit determination performance is investigated and assessed using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI tracking data. The overlap orbit analysis, the posteriori data residual, and the orbit prediction are used to evaluate the orbit precision between successive arcs. The LP165P model has better orbit overlap performance than the SGM150J model for Chang'E-2100 km × 100 km orbit and the SGM150J model performs better for Chang'E-2100 km × 15 km orbit, while GL0900D and GRGM900C have the best orbit overlap results for the two types of Chang'E-2 orbit. For the orbit prediction, GRGM900C has the best orbit prediction performance in the four models.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1998-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

1997-12-31

The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Projection of electrical demand in Argentina for the period from 1993 through 2010 mark of economic reform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goni, Margarita R.; Gonzalez, Enrique

1996-01-01

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios has been presented . The period 1993-2010 is analysed and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministry of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described different rates of growth and electrical energy uses

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

Science.gov (United States)

Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

2011-04-01

Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Effect of pesticide fate parameters and their uncertainty on the selection of 'worst-case' scenarios of pesticide leaching to groundwater.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanderborght, Jan; Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Vereecken, Harry

2011-03-01

For the registration of pesticides in the European Union, model simulations for worst-case scenarios are used to demonstrate that leaching concentrations to groundwater do not exceed a critical threshold. A worst-case scenario is a combination of soil and climate properties for which predicted leaching concentrations are higher than a certain percentile of the spatial concentration distribution within a region. The derivation of scenarios is complicated by uncertainty about soil and pesticide fate parameters. As the ranking of climate and soil property combinations according to predicted leaching concentrations is different for different pesticides, the worst-case scenario for one pesticide may misrepresent the worst case for another pesticide, which leads to 'scenario uncertainty'. Pesticide fate parameter uncertainty led to higher concentrations in the higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions, especially for distributions in smaller and more homogeneous regions. The effect of pesticide fate parameter uncertainty on the spatial concentration distribution was small when compared with the uncertainty of local concentration predictions and with the scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty in pesticide fate parameters and scenario uncertainty can be accounted for using higher percentiles of spatial concentration distributions and considering a range of pesticides for the scenario selection. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

From Wagons to Race Cars, At Least Now We Have A Chassis

Science.gov (United States)

Morrow, A. L.

2003-12-01

For the past 30 years Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) has provided astronomers with the most accurate measurements to date of both distant radio sources as well as the tectonic plates. The resolutions attainable through VLBI are orders of magnitude better than other instruments. In order to transmit radio signals collected at different sites to a correlator for processing the VLBI data was stored on magnetic tapes, and then the magnetic tapes were shipped through the mail to the central processing site. This was not only arduous and inefficient, it was also costly. Now this means of shipment can be replaced by global high speed networks. This means of transmission is called e-VLBI. New protocols must be developed so e-VLBI can become a proficient high bandwidth background user. The protocol agreed upon uses a Real-time Transport Protocol (RTP) framework to preserve timing information and synchronization. The RTP is then transported using the Internet User Datagram Protocol (UDP) with RTP Control Protocol (RTCP) monitoring the networks performance. When this protocol is fully functional astronomers will be able to observe all over the world and receive results in real time.

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

Science.gov (United States)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre

2010-01-01

Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...... as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

2018-09-01

To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and Macroeconomic Analysis of an 'Acceptable' Low-Carbon Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

2016-01-01

Two observations motivate our research: the lack of acceptability of climate policies and the deficit of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of low-carbon scenarios. Both constitute a barrier to decision-making and slow the energy transition. To overcome these limitations, we have scripted a scenario using a co-development method involving 30 stakeholders from civil society and the private and public sectors. Stakeholders contributed significantly to the methodology by requesting data transparency, sensitivity tests and the clarification of economic and financial impacts. We incorporated the set of policies regarded as acceptable into the Imaclim-R model. The resulting scenario cuts CO_2 emissions by 68 % in 2050, an outcome close to the 75 % reduction target. The measures are beneficial to employment and economic growth, except in the short term. These findings provide solid foundations to build acceptable decarbonization pathways

Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

2015-01-01

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

2006-07-15

the total mitigation potential can be assumed to be up to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.The most favourable mitigation scenario was High landfill gas recovery scenario where increased rates of landfill gas recovery were assumed in developed and developing countries. In developing countries CDM type activities have appeared to be favourable mechanisms to stimulate this development. Due to the time lag in the emissions from landfills, the impact of increased recycling and incineration in mitigating the emissions from the waste sector is seen more slowly than that of landfill gas recovery. According to the calculations of economic potentials, one third of global CH{sub 4} emissions from landfills could be reduced at zero to negative costs in 2030. Below 10.20 USD/t CO{sub 2} eq, more than half of the emissions could be reduced. The economic maximum potential would be approximately 75% in 2030 when compared with the Baseline, but due to the time lag between waste disposal and emissions, this would be reached only if measures with very high marginal cost levels could be implemented in 2010. These assessments of potentials based on specific assumptions are appropriate for generalized global comparisons; however, more accurate assessment of the potentials would need more detailed consideration of regional and local conditions. (orig.)

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

2010-01-01

The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

2008-01-01

The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

Mesospheric signatures observed during 2010 minor stratospheric warming at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W)

Science.gov (United States)

Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Hong, Junseok; Kim, Jeong-Han; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Chandran, A.; Rao, S. V. B.; Riggin, Dennis

2016-03-01

A minor stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. Among the three warming events, the signature of mesosphere response was detected only for the September event in the mesospheric wind dataset from both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W) and Rothera (68°S, 68°W), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW event, as has been observed in the 2002 major SSW. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with stratospheric warmings are found in temperatures measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Simulations of specified dynamics version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) are able to reproduce these observed features. The mesospheric wind field was found to differ significantly from that of normal years probably due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSW. From the wavelet analysis of wind data of both stations, we find that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere. Our study provides evidence that minor SSWs in SH can result in significant effects on the mesospheric dynamics as in the northern hemisphere.

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Supply and demand of diesel engine for 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-03-01

This document takes stock on the diesel engine situation in France, in order to define the future policy for 2010. The first part is a state of the art concerning the description and characteristics of the diesel, the diesel production in refineries, the biofuels, the supply and demand. The second part details the evolutions, the investments and the fiscality impacts. The last part concludes on the necessity of a fiscal neutrality and on the fact that no new refinery is justified in France. It proposes different scenario of the imports evolution. (A.L.B.)

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Extreme ozone depletion in the 2010–2011 Arctic winter stratosphere as observed by MIPAS/ENVISAT using a 2-D tomographic approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Arnone

2012-10-01

Full Text Available We present observations of the 2010–2011 Arctic winter stratosphere from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS onboard ENVISAT. Limb sounding infrared measurements were taken by MIPAS during the Northern polar winter and into the subsequent spring, giving a continuous vertically resolved view of the Arctic dynamics, chemistry and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs. We adopted a 2-D tomographic retrieval approach to account for the strong horizontal inhomogeneity of the atmosphere present under vortex conditions, self-consistently comparing 2011 to the 2-D analysis of 2003–2010. Unlike most Arctic winters, 2011 was characterized by a strong stratospheric vortex lasting until early April. Lower stratospheric temperatures persistently remained below the threshold for PSC formation, extending the PSC season up to mid-March, resulting in significant chlorine activation leading to ozone destruction. On 3 January 2011, PSCs were detected up to 30.5 ± 0.9 km altitude, representing the highest PSCs ever reported in the Arctic. Through inspection of MIPAS spectra, 83% of PSCs were identified as supercooled ternary solution (STS or STS mixed with nitric acid trihydrate (NAT, 17% formed mostly by NAT particles, and only two cases by ice. In the lower stratosphere at potential temperature 450 K, vortex average ozone showed a daily depletion rate reaching 100 ppbv day⁻¹. In early April at 18 km altitude, 10% of vortex measurements displayed total depletion of ozone, and vortex average values dropped to 0.6 ppmv. This corresponds to a chemical loss from early winter greater than 80%. Ozone loss was accompanied by activation of ClO, associated depletion of its reservoir ClONO₂, and significant denitrification, which further delayed the recovery of ozone in spring. Once the PSC season halted, ClO was reconverted primarily into ClONO₂. Compared to MIPAS observed 2003–2010 Arctic average values

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-08-06

In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yimingniyazi, W.

2007-01-01

In this thesis we study the relic density n χ of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles χ in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles χ to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where χ particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T 0 of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the χ number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T 0 , assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T 0 ≥m χ /23, where m χ is the mass of χ. Second, we discuss the χ density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the χ annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T ∝m χ /20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

2006-01-01

We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

Energy Revolution. A Sustainable Pathway to a Clean Energy Future for Europe. A European Energy Scenario for EU-25

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teske, S.; Baker, C.

2005-09-01

Greenpeace and the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment of the German Aerospace Center (DLR),have developed a blueprint for the EU energy supply that shows how Europe can lead the way to a sustainable pathway to a clean energy future. The Greenpeace energy revolution scenario demonstrates that phasing out nuclear power and massively reducing CO2-emissions is possible. The scenario comes close to a fossil fuels phase-out by aiming for a 80% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050.The pathway in this scenario achieves this phase-out in a relatively short time-frame without using technological options (such as 'clean coal') that are ultimately dead ends, deflecting resources from the real solutions offered by renewable energy. Whilst there are many technical options that will allow us to meet short-term EU Kyoto targets (-8% GHG by 2010), these may have limited long-term potential. The Greenpeace Energy Revolution Scenario shows that in the long run, renewable energy will be cheaper than conventional energy sources and reduce EU's dependence from world market prices from imported fossil and nuclear fuels.The rapid growth of renewable energy technologies will lead to a large investment in new technologies.This dynamic market growth will result in a shift of employment opportunities from conventional energy-related industries to new occupational fields in the renewable energy industry. Renewable energy is expected to provide about 700,000 jobs in the field of electricity generation from renewable energy sources by 2010

Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deque, M.

2007-01-01

Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Observations of middle atmospheric H2O and O3 during the 2010 major sudden stratospheric warming by a network of microwave radiometers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Kämpfer

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In this study, we present middle atmospheric water vapor (H2O and ozone (O3 measurements obtained by ground-based microwave radiometers at three European locations in Bern (47° N, Onsala (57° N and Sodankylä (67° N during Northern winter 2009/2010. In January 2010, a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurred in the Northern Hemisphere whose signatures are evident in the ground-based observations of H2O and O3. The observed anomalies in H2O and O3 are mostly explained by the relative location of the polar vortex with respect to the measurement locations. The SSW started on 26 January 2010 and was most pronounced by the end of January. The zonal mean temperature in the middle stratosphere (10 hPa increased by approximately 25 Kelvin within a few days. The stratospheric vortex weakened during the SSW and shifted towards Europe. In the mesosphere, the vortex broke down, which lead to large scale mixing of polar and midlatitudinal air. After the warming, the polar vortex in the stratosphere split into two weaker vortices and in the mesosphere, a new, pole-centered vortex formed with maximum wind speed of 70 m s−1 at approximately 40° N. The shift of the stratospheric vortex towards Europe was observed in Bern as an increase in stratospheric H2O and a decrease in O3. The breakdown of the mesospheric vortex during the SSW was observed at Onsala and Sodankylä as a sudden increase in mesospheric H2O. The following large-scale descent inside the newly formed mesospheric vortex was well captured by the H2O observations in Sodankylä. In order to combine the H2O observations from the three different locations, we applied the trajectory mapping technique on our H2O observations to derive synoptic scale maps of the H2O distribution. Based on our observations and the 3-D wind field, this method allows determining the approximate development of the stratospheric and mesospheric polar vortex and demonstrates the potential of a network of ground

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

A multiwavelength and multiscale study of Luminous and Ultraluminous Infrared Galaxies in the local Universe

Science.gov (United States)

Herrero-Illana, Rubén

2014-10-01

an exploratory study where, using the Paschen! emission, we developed a method to isolate the two main component of the radio emission at 8.4 GHz: thermal and non-thermal (synchrotron). This decomposition allowed us to differentiate the ages at different regions, yielding to a better understanding of starburst processes. We also studied the massive star formation in the most luminous nearby LIRG, Arp 299, through the study of supernovae (SNe), both in its most luminous nucleus (Arp 299-A) and in its surroundings. We used radio data from the e-MERLIN interferometer, obtained for the LIRGI project (PIs: J. Conway & M.A. Perez-Torres), to discover the radio counterpart of supernova SN2010P. We used additional radio data at four frequencies, for a total of 13 epochs, and modeled the light curve of SN2010P, which allowed us to type it as a IIb, i.e., a stripped-envelope core-collapse supernova. Another supernova (SN2010O) exploded in the system a few days earlier, but did not show any radio emission despite our several attempts to detect it at different epochs. This radio-silence in late time observations is probably due to its rapid evolution, compatible with a Type Ib supernova. Regarding the study of SNe in the nuclear region of Arp 299-A, we used very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) radio techniques. We analyzed several epochs spanning 2.5 years using the European VLBI Network (EVN), which permitted us to confirm 25 compact sources, most of them SNe or SN remnants, and allowed us to derive a core-collapse SN rate of !0.8 SNyr-1, compatible with previous studies. We also found that most of the star formation in Arp 299-A is taking place in the inner 150 parsecs. Our final approach to the study of (U)LIRGs consists of the use of radio-VLBI techniques aimed at resolving the innermost regions of these galaxies, where massive and violent starbursts are taking place, and where their interaction with AGN is more evident. Since radio is not affected by dust extinction and

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general