WorldWideScience

Sample records for vlbi2010 observing scenario

  1. The RAEGE VLBI2010 radiotelescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sust, Eberhard; López Fernández, José Antonio

    2012-09-01

    The goal of the RAEGE (Red Atlantica Estaciones Geodinamicas Espaciales) project is the establishment of a Spanish-Portuguese network of geodynamical and spatial geodesy stations by the installation and operation of four fundamental geodetic / astronomical stations provided with radio telescopes located at - Yebes, close to Madrid / Spain - Tenerife, Canary Islands / Spain - Santa Maria, Azores Islands / Portugal. VLBI 2010 radiotelescopes are belonging to a new generation of radiotelescopes suitable for high precision geodetical earth observation and measurements, that shall allow to built up a high precision global reference system. The design of the radiotelescopes has been finished by MT Mechatronics in summer 2011 and currently three radiotelescopes are being manufactured. The first one is scheduled for installation in summer 2012 at Yebes Observatory close to Madrid.

  2. VLBI2010 Receiver Back End Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrachenko, Bill

    2013-01-01

    VLBI2010 requires a receiver back-end to convert analog RF signals from the receiver front end into channelized digital data streams to be recorded or transmitted electronically. The back end functions are typically performed in two steps: conversion of analog RF inputs into IF bands (see Table 2), and conversion of IF bands into channelized digital data streams (see Tables 1a, 1b and 1c). The latter IF systems are now completely digital and generically referred to as digital back ends (DBEs). In Table 2 two RF conversion systems are compared, and in Tables 1a, 1b, and 1c nine DBE systems are compared. Since DBE designs are advancing rapidly, the data in these tables are only guaranteed to be current near the update date of this document.

  3. New VLBI2010 scheduling strategies and implications on the terrestrial reference frames.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jing; Böhm, Johannes; Nilsson, Tobias; Krásná, Hana; Böhm, Sigrid; Schuh, Harald

    In connection with the work for the next generation VLBI2010 Global Observing System (VGOS) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry, a new scheduling package (Vie_Sched) has been developed at the Vienna University of Technology as a part of the Vienna VLBI Software. In addition to the classical station-based approach it is equipped with a new scheduling strategy based on the radio sources to be observed. We introduce different configurations of source-based scheduling options and investigate the implications on present and future VLBI2010 geodetic schedules. By comparison to existing VLBI schedules of the continuous campaign CONT11, we find that the source-based approach with two sources has a performance similar to the station-based approach in terms of number of observations, sky coverage, and geodetic parameters. For an artificial 16 station VLBI2010 network, the source-based approach with four sources provides an improved distribution of source observations on the celestial sphere. Monte Carlo simulations yield slightly better repeatabilities of station coordinates with the source-based approach with two sources or four sources than the classical strategy. The new VLBI scheduling software with its alternative scheduling strategy offers a promising option with respect to applications of the VGOS.

  4. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  5. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  6. All Sky Survey Mission Observing Scenario Strategy

    CERN Document Server

    Spangelo, Sara C; Unwin, Stephen C; Bock, Jamie J

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a general observing strategy for missions performing all-sky surveys, where a single spacecraft maps the celestial sphere subject to realistic constraints. The strategy is flexible such that targeted observations and variable coverage requirements can be achieved. This paper focuses on missions operating in Low Earth Orbit, where the thermal and stray-light constraints due to the Sun, Earth, and Moon result in interacting and dynamic constraints. The approach is applicable to broader mission classes, such as those that operate in different orbits or that survey the Earth. First, the instrument and spacecraft configuration is optimized to enable visibility of the targeted observations throughout the year. Second, a constraint-based high-level strategy is presented for scheduling throughout the year subject to a simplified subset of the constraints. Third, a heuristic-based scheduling algorithm is developed to assign the all-sky observations over short planning horizons. The constraint-based...

  7. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation...

  8. Observable predictions of generalised inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Elliston, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Inflation is an early period of accelerated cosmic expansion, thought to be sourced by high energy physics. A key task today is to use the influx of increasingly precise observational data to constrain the plethora of inflationary models suggested by fundamental theories of interactions. This requires a robust theoretical framework for quantifying the predictions of such models; helping to develop such a framework is the aim of this thesis. We provide the first complete quantization of subhorizon perturbations for the well-motivated class of multi-field inflationary models with a non-trivial field metric, which we show may yield interesting signatures in the bispectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). The subsequent evolution of perturbations in the superhorizon epoch is then considered, via a covariant extension of the transport formalism. To develop intuition about the relationship between inflationary dynamics and the evolution of cosmic observables, we investigate analytic approximations of super...

  9. Assessment of Simulated Emergency Scenarios: Are Trained Observers Necessary?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noveanu, Juliane; Amsler, Felix; Ummenhofer, Wolfgang; von Wyl, Thomas; Zuercher, Mathias

    2017-01-01

    Simulation-based medical training is associated with superior educational outcomes and improved cost efficiency. Self- and peer-assessment may be a cost-effective and flexible alternative to expert-led assessment. We compared accuracy of self- and peer-assessment of untrained raters using basic evaluation tools to expert assessment using advanced validation tools including validated questionnaires and post hoc video-based analysis. Twenty-eight simulated emergency airway management scenarios were observed and video-recorded for further assessment. Participants consisted of 28 emergency physicians who were involved in four different airway management scenarios with different roles: One scenario as a team leader, one as an assisting team member, and two as an observer. Non-technical skills (NTS) and technical skills (TS) were analyzed by three independent groups: 1) the performing team (PT) consisted of the two emergency physicians acting either in the role of team leader or team member (self-assessment); 2) the observing team (OT), consisted of two of the participating emergency physicians not involved in the current clinical scenario (peer-assessment) and assessment occurred during (OT) or directly after (PT) the simulation without prior specific interpretational training but using standardized questionnaires; and 3) the expert team (ET) consisted of two specifically trained external observers (one psychologist and one emergency physician) using video-assisted objective assessment combined with standardized questionnaires. Intragroup reliability demonstrated by intra-class correlation (ICC) was moderate to good for TS (ICC 0.42(*)) and NTS (ICC 0.55(*)) in PT and moderate to good for TS (ICC 0.41(*)) or poor for NTS (ICC 0.27) in OT. ET showed an excellent intragroup reliability for both TS (ICC 0.78(*)) and NTS (ICC 0.81(*)). Interrater reliability was significantly different between ET and PT and between ET and OT for both TS and NTS. There was no difference

  10. Observational evidence for an inside-out substorm onset scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    We present observations which provide strong support for a substorm onset scenario in which a localized inner magnetospheric instability developed first and was later followed by the development of a Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL) farther down-tail. Specifically, we find that the onset began as a localized brightening of an intensified growth phase arc which developed as a periodic series of arc-aligned (i.e. azimuthally arrayed) bright spots. As the disturbance grew, it evolved into vortical structures that propagated poleward and eventually morphed into an east-west aligned arc system at the poleward edge of the auroral substorm bulge. The auroral intensification shows an exponential growth with an estimated e-folding time of around 188 seconds (linear growth rate, {gamma} of 5.33 x 10{sup -3} s{sup -1}). During the initial breakup, no obvious distortions of auroral forms to the north were observed. However, during the expansion phase, intensifications of the poleward boundary of the expanding bulge were observed together with the equatorward ejection of auroral streamers into the bulge. A strong particle injection was observed at geosynchronous orbit, but was delayed by several minutes relative to onsel. Ground magnetometer data also shows a two phase development of mid-latitude positive H-bays, with a quasi-linear increase in H between the onset and the injection. We conclude that this event provides strong evidence in favor of the so-called 'inside-out' substorm onset scenario in which the near Earth region activates first followed at a later time by the formation of a near-to-mid tail substorm X-line. The ballooning instability is discussed as a likely mechanism for the initial onset.

  11. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  12. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  13. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  14. Use of a checklist during observation of a simulated cardiac arrest scenario does not improve time to CPR and defibrillation over observation alone for subsequent scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilley, Stuart J; Weiland, Tracey J; O'Brien, Robert; Cunningham, Neil J; Van Dijk, Julian E; Mahoney, Rosie M; Williams, Matthew J

    2015-01-01

    Immersive simulation is a common mode of education for medical students. Observation of clinical simulations prior to participation is believed to be beneficial, though this is often a passive process. Active observation may be more beneficial. The hypothesis tested in this study was that the active use of a simple checklist during observation of an immersive simulation would result in better participant performance in a subsequent scenario compared with passive observation alone. Medical students were randomized to either passive or active (with checklist) observation of an immersive simulation involving cardiac arrest prior to participating in their own simulation. Performance measures included time to cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and time to defibrillation and were compared between first and second scenarios as well as between passive and active observers. Seventy-nine simulations involving 232 students were conducted. Mean time to CPR was 18 seconds (SD = 11.6) for those using the checklist and 24 seconds (SD = 15.8) for those who observed passively (M difference = 6 seconds), t(35) = 1.46, p =.153. Time to defibrillation was 94 seconds (SD = 26.4) for those using the checklist and 92 seconds (SD = 23.8) for those who observed passively (M difference = -2 seconds), t(38) =.21, p =.837. Time to CPR was 24 seconds (SD = 15.8) for passive observers and 31 seconds (SD = 21.0; M difference = 7 seconds), t(35) = 1.13, p =.265, for their first scenario counterparts. Time to CPR was 18 seconds (SD = 11.6) for active observers and 36 seconds (SD = 26.2; M difference = 18 seconds), t(24) = 2.81, p =.010, for their first scenario counterparts. Time to defibrillation was 92 seconds (SD = 23.8) for passive observers and 125 seconds (SD = 32.2; M difference = 33 seconds), t(33) = 3.63, p =.001, for their first scenario counterparts. Time to defibrillation was 94 seconds (SD = 26.4) for the active observers and 132 seconds (SD = 52.9; M difference = 38 seconds), t(28

  15. Recent observational constraints on generalized Chaplygin gas in UDME scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, P.

    2017-03-01

    Recent observational predictions suggest that our Universe is passing through an accelerating phase in the recent past. This acceleration may be realized with the negatively pressured dark energy. Generalized Chaplygin gas may be suitable to describe the evolution of the Universe as a candidate of unified dark matter energy (UDME) model. Its EoS parameters are constrained using (i) dimensionless age parameter ( H 0 t 0) and (ii) the observed Hubble ( H( z)- z) data (OHD) + baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data + cosmic microwave background (CMB) shift data + supernovae (Union2.1) data. Dimensionless age parameter puts loose bounds on the EoS parameters. Best-fit values of the EoS parameters H 0, A s and α ( A s and α are defined in the energy density for generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) and in EoS) are then determined from OHD + BAO + CMB + Union2.1 data and contours are drawn to obtain their allowed range of values. The present age of the Universe ( t 0) and the present Hubble parameter ( H 0) have been estimated with 1 σ confidence level. Best-fit values of deceleration parameter ( q), squared sound speed (cs2) and EoS parameter ( ω) of this model are then determined. It is seen that GCG satisfactorily accommodates an accelerating phase and structure formation phase.

  16. Recent observational constraints on generalized Chaplygin gas in UDME scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P THAKUR

    2017-03-01

    Recent observational predictions suggest that our Universe is passing through an accelerating phase in the recent past. This acceleration may be realized with the negatively pressured dark energy. Generalized Chaplygin gas may be suitable to describe the evolution of the Universe as a candidate of unified dark matterenergy (UDME) model. Its EoS parameters are constrained using (i) dimensionless age parameter ($H_{0}t_{0}$) and (ii) the observed Hubble (H(z) − z) data (OHD) + baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data + cosmic microwavebackground (CMB) shift data + supernovae (Union2.1) data. Dimensionless age parameter puts loose bounds on the EoS parameters. Best-fit values of the EoS parameters $H_{0}, A_{s}$ and $\\alpha$ ($A_{s}$ and $\\alpha$ are defined in the energy density for generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) and in EoS) are then determined from OHD+BAO+CMB+Union2.1 data and contours are drawn to obtain their allowed range of values. The present age of the Universe ($t_0$) and the present Hubble parameter ($H_0$) have been estimated with 1σ confidence level. Best-fit values of deceleration parameter (q), squared sound speed ($c^{2}_{s}$ ) and EoS parameter ($\\omega$) of this model are then determined. It is seen that GCG satisfactorily accommodates an accelerating phase and structure formation phase.

  17. Towards disruptions in Earth observation? New Earth Observation systems and markets evolution: Possible scenarios and impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Gil; Claverie, Alain; Pasco, Xavier; Darnis, Jean-Pierre; de Maupeou, Benoît; Lafaye, Murielle; Morel, Eric

    2017-08-01

    This paper reviews the trends in Earth observation (EO) and the possible impacts on markets of the new initiatives, launched either by existing providers of EO data or by new players, privately funded. After a presentation of the existing models, the paper discusses the new approaches, addressing both commercial and institutional markets. New concepts for the very high resolution markets, in Europe and in the US, are the main focus of this analysis. Two complementary perspectives are summarised: on the one hand, the type of system and its operational performance and, on the other, the related business models, concepts of operation and ownership schemes.

  18. The diffusion-induced nova scenario. CK Vul and PB 8 as possible observational counterparts

    CERN Document Server

    Bertolami, Marcelo M Miller; Olano, Carlos; Jimenez, Noelia

    2011-01-01

    We propose a scenario for the formation of DA white dwarfs with very thin helium buffers. For these stars we explore the possible occurrence of diffusion-induced CNO- flashes, during their early cooling stage. In order to obtain very thin helium buffers, we simulate the formation of low mass remnants through an AGB final/late thermal pulse (AFTP/LTP scenario). Then we calculate the consequent white dwarf cooling evolution by means of a consistent treatment of element diffusion and nuclear burning. Based on physically sounding white dwarf models, we find that the range of helium buffer masses for these diffusion-induced novas to occur is significantly smaller than that predicted by the only previous study of this scenario. As a matter of fact, we find that these flashes do occur only in some low-mass (M C>O by mass fractions. Contrary to previous speculations we show that these events are not recurrent and do not change substantially the final H-content of the cool (DA) white dwarf. (Abridged)

  19. Sensitivity of soil moisture analyses to contrasting background and observation error scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Sabater, Joaquín; de Rosnay, Patricia; Albergel, Clément; Isaksen, Lars

    2017-04-01

    Soil moisture is a crucial variable for numerical weather prediction. Accurate, global initialization of soil moisture is obtained through data assimilation systems. However analyses depend largely on the way observations and background errors are defined. In this paper a wide range of short experiments with contrasted specification of the observation error and soil moisture background were conducted. As observations, screen-level variables and brightness temperatures from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission were used. The region of interest was North America given the good availability of in-situ observations. The impact of these experiments on soil moisture and the atmospheric layer near the surface were evaluated. The results highlighted the importance of assimilating sensitive observations to soil moisture for air temperature and humidity forecasts. The benefits on the soil water content were more noticeable with increasing the SMOS observation error and with the introduction of soil texture dependency in the soil moisture background error.

  20. Testing the Dark Matter Scenario for PeV Neutrinos Observed in IceCube

    CERN Document Server

    Murase, Kohta; Ando, Shin'ichiro; Ahlers, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Late time decay of very heavy dark matter is considered as one of the possible explanations for diffuse PeV neutrinos observed in IceCube. We consider implications of multimessenger constraints, and show that proposed models are marginally consistent with the diffuse gamma-ray background data. Critical tests are possible by a detailed analysis and identification of the sub-TeV isotropic diffuse gamma-ray data observed by Fermi and future observations of sub-PeV gamma-rays by observatories like HAWC or Tibet AS+MD. In addition, with several-year observations by next-generation telescopes such as IceCube-Gen2, muon neutrino searches for nearby clusters such as the Virgo cluster should allow us to rule out or support the dark matter models, independently of gamma-ray and anisotropy tests.

  1. Testing the Dark Matter Scenario for PeV Neutrinos Observed in IceCube.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murase, Kohta; Laha, Ranjan; Ando, Shin'ichiro; Ahlers, Markus

    2015-08-14

    Late time decay of very heavy dark matter is considered as one of the possible explanations for diffuse PeV neutrinos observed in IceCube. We consider implications of multimessenger constraints, and show that proposed models are marginally consistent with the diffuse γ-ray background data. Critical tests are possible by a detailed analysis and identification of the sub-TeV isotropic diffuse γ-ray data observed by Fermi and future observations of sub-PeV γ rays by observatories like HAWC or Tibet AS+MD. In addition, with several-year observations by next-generation telescopes such as IceCube-Gen2, muon neutrino searches for nearby dark matter halos such as the Virgo cluster should allow us to rule out or support the dark matter models, independently of γ-ray and anisotropy tests.

  2. Are observations of the galaxy cluster A1689 consistent with a neutrino dark matter scenario?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuizen, T.M.; Morandi, A.

    2013-01-01

    Recent weak and strong lensing data of the galaxy cluster A1689 are modelled by dark fermions that are quantum degenerate within some core. The gas density, deduced from X-ray observations up to 1 Mpc and obeying a cored power law, is taken as input, while the galaxy mass density is modelled. An add

  3. Testing the Dark Matter Scenario for PeV Neutrinos Observed in IceCube

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murase, K.; Laha, R.; Ando, S.; Ahlers, M.

    2015-01-01

    Late time decay of very heavy dark matter is considered as one of the possible explanations for diffuse PeV neutrinos observed in IceCube. We consider implications of multimessenger constraints, and show that proposed models are marginally consistent with the diffuse gamma-ray background data. Criti

  4. An observational overview of the millisecond magnetar scenario for long and short gamma-ray bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Paul; Gompertz, Ben

    2016-07-01

    The standard model for GRBs involves either the collapse of a massive star or the merger of a compact binary system resulting in a black hole which accretes for a brief period of time. An alternative model is to form a magnetar, which survives for a while at least powering the emission. I will discuss some recent attempts to fit a magnetar model, including the effects of spindown and propellering, to the high-energy data for some GRBs. I will also show how energy injection from a magnetar could be tested using radio observations

  5. Fast earthward flows, electron cyclotron harmonic waves, and diffuse auroras: Conjunctive observations and a synthesized scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Jun; Ni, B.; Spanswick, E.; Kubyshkina, M.; Donovan, E. F.; Uritsky, V. M.; Thorne, R. M.; Angelopoulos, V.

    2011-12-01

    We present in this paper multi-instrumental observations and analyses of fast earthward flows, electrostatic electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves, and diffuse auroras, during 8-9 UT on February 5, 2009. The event began with a series of fast earthward flows detected on mid-tail probe THEMIS-C. Subsequently, magnetic dipolarizations and strong ECH wave intensifications were observed on THEMIS-D/E probes at L ˜ 11 in the equatorial plasma sheet. Concurrently, Ground optical instruments detected diffuse auroral intensifications in the region surrounding the ionospheric footprints of the THEMIS probes. Together with the theoretical simulation performed by Ni et al. (2011e), we establish a causal conjunction between the ECH waves and diffuse auroras for the reported event. We also propose that the ECH wave and diffuse auroral intensification were likely triggered by the fast flow activity from the mid-tail and its resulting magnetic dipolarization. We discuss possible mechanisms linking the fast flow and its associated dipolarization to the intensification of ECH wave and diffuse aurora in the outer magnetosphere.

  6. A possible phase separation scenario observed in perovskite manganites under high pressure

    CERN Document Server

    Wang Xin; Pan Yue Wu; Zou Guang Tian

    2002-01-01

    Energy-dispersive x-ray diffraction measurements have been carried out in the perovskite La sub 0 sub . sub 5 Ca sub 0 sub . sub 5 MnO sub 3 and bismuth-doped La sub 0 sub . sub 2 sub 5 Bi sub 0 sub . sub 2 sub 5 Ca sub 0 sub . sub 5 MnO sub 3 under hydrostatic pressure in a diamond cell. On the substitution of La sup 3 sup + ion with Bi sup 3 sup + ion, a shoulder peak appears in the observed main peak of La sub 0 sub . sub 2 sub 5 Bi sub 0 sub . sub 2 sub 5 Ca sub 0 sub . sub 5 MnO sub 3 at 43.9 GPa, but not in that of La sub 0 sub . sub 5 Ca sub 0 sub . sub 5 MnO sub 3 with the pressure up to 45.9 GPa. This phenomenon can be explained by a number of discrete clusters that are simultaneously present in the sample, due to the pressure enhanced interactions between charge, orbital and coupling with the lattice distortion coming from the unique 6s sup 2 lone-pair characteristics of Bi sup 3 sup +.

  7. Cosmological Simulations of the Preheating Scenario for Galaxy Cluster Formation: Comparison to Analytic Models and Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Younger, Joshua D

    2007-01-01

    We perform a set of non--radiative cosmological simulations of a preheated intracluster medium in which the entropy of the gas was uniformly boosted at high redshift. The results of these simulations are used first to test the current analytic techniques of preheating via entropy input in the smooth accretion limit. When the unmodified profile is taken directly from simulations, we find that this model is in excellent agreement with the results of our simulations. This suggests that preheated efficiently smoothes the accreted gas, and therefore a shift in the unmodified profile is a good approximation even with a realistic accretion history. When we examine the simulation results in detail, we do not find strong evidence for entropy amplification, at least for the high-redshift preheating model adopted here. In the second section of the paper, we compare the results of the preheating simulations to recent observations. We show -- in agreement with previous work -- that for a reasonable amount of preheating, a...

  8. Cloud cover climatologies in the Mediterranean obtained from satellites, surface observations, reanalyses, and CMIP5 simulations: validation and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Norris, Joel R.

    2016-07-01

    Clouds are an important regulator of climate due to their connection to the water balance of the atmosphere and their interaction with solar and infrared radiation. In this study, monthly total cloud cover (TCC) records from different sources have been inter-compared on annual and seasonal basis for the Mediterranean region and the period 1984-2005. Specifically, gridded databases from satellite projects (ISCCP, CLARA, PATMOS-x), from reanalysis products (ERA-Interim, MERRA), and from surface observations over land (EECRA) and ocean (ICOADS) have been examined. Then, simulations from 44 climate runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 corresponding to the historical scenario have been compared against the observations. Overall, we find good agreement between the mean values of TCC estimated from the three satellite products and from surface observations, while reanalysis products show much lower values across the region. Nevertheless, all datasets show similar behavior regarding the annual cycle of TCC. In addition, our results indicate an underestimation of TCC from climate model simulations as compared to the satellite products, especially during summertime, although the annual cycle is well simulated by most models. This result is quite general and apparently independent of the cloud parameterizations included in each particular model. Equally, similar results are obtained if the ISCCP simulator included in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package is considered, despite only few models provide the post-processed results. Finally, GCM projections of TCC over the Mediterranean are presented. These projections predict a reduction of TCC during the 21st century in the Mediterranean. Specifically, for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5) the projected relative rate of TCC decrease is larger than 10 % by the end of the century.

  9. GPU Based Software Correlators - Perspectives for VLBI2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobiger, Thomas; Kimura, Moritaka; Takefuji, Kazuhiro; Oyama, Tomoaki; Koyama, Yasuhiro; Kondo, Tetsuro; Gotoh, Tadahiro; Amagai, Jun

    2010-01-01

    Caused by historical separation and driven by the requirements of the PC gaming industry, Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) have evolved to massive parallel processing systems which entered the area of non-graphic related applications. Although a single processing core on the GPU is much slower and provides less functionality than its counterpart on the CPU, the huge number of these small processing entities outperforms the classical processors when the application can be parallelized. Thus, in recent years various radio astronomical projects have started to make use of this technology either to realize the correlator on this platform or to establish the post-processing pipeline with GPUs. Therefore, the feasibility of GPUs as a choice for a VLBI correlator is being investigated, including pros and cons of this technology. Additionally, a GPU based software correlator will be reviewed with respect to energy consumption/GFlop/sec and cost/GFlop/sec.

  10. Prediction of Root Zone Soil Moisture using Remote Sensing Products and In-Situ Observation under Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, G.; Panda, R. K.; Mohanty, B.

    2015-12-01

    Prediction of root zone soil moisture status at field level is vital for developing efficient agricultural water management schemes. In this study, root zone soil moisture was estimated across the Rana watershed in Eastern India, by assimilation of near-surface soil moisture estimate from SMOS satellite into a physically-based Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) model. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique coupled with SWAP model was used for assimilating the satellite soil moisture observation at different spatial scales. The universal triangle concept and artificial intelligence techniques were applied to disaggregate the SMOS satellite monitored near-surface soil moisture at a 40 km resolution to finer scale (1 km resolution), using higher spatial resolution of MODIS derived vegetation indices (NDVI) and land surface temperature (Ts). The disaggregated surface soil moisture were compared to ground-based measurements in diverse landscape using portable impedance probe and gravimetric samples. Simulated root zone soil moisture were compared with continuous soil moisture profile measurements at three monitoring stations. In addition, the impact of projected climate change on root zone soil moisture were also evaluated. The climate change projections of rainfall were analyzed for the Rana watershed from statistically downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The long-term root zone soil moisture dynamics were estimated by including a rainfall generator of likely scenarios. The predicted long term root zone soil moisture status at finer scale can help in developing efficient agricultural water management schemes to increase crop production, which lead to enhance the water use efficiency.

  11. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  12. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  13. Exploring binary-neutron-star-merger scenario of short-gamma-ray bursts by gravitational-wave observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiuchi, Kenta; Sekiguchi, Yuichiro; Shibata, Masaru; Taniguchi, Keisuke

    2010-04-09

    We elucidate the feature of gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary-neutron-star merger collapsing to a black hole by general relativistic simulation. We show that GW spectrum imprints the coalescence dynamics, formation process of disk, equation of state for neutron stars, total masses, and mass ratio. A formation mechanism of the central engine of short-gamma-ray bursts, which are likely to be composed of a black hole and surrounding disk, therefore could be constrained by GW observation.

  14. Observing the very low surface brightness dwarfs in a deep field in the VIRGO cluster: constraints on dark matter scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menci, N.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Paris, D.; Fontana, A.; Pentericci, L.

    2017-08-01

    We report the discovery of 11 very faint (r ≲ 23), low surface brightness (μr ≲ 27 mag/arcsec2) dwarf galaxies in one deep field in the Virgo cluster, obtained by the prime focus cameras (LBC) at the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT). These extend our previous sample to reach a total number of 27 galaxies in a field of just 0.17 deg2 located at a median distance of 390 kpc from the cluster centre. The association of such galaxies with the Virgo cluster is supported by their separate position in the central surface brightness - total magnitude plane with respect to the background galaxies of similar total magnitude. For a significant fraction (26%) of the sample, the association to the cluster is confirmed by spectroscopic follow-up. We show that the mere abundance of satellite galaxies corresponding to our observed number in the target field provides extremely tight constraints on dark matter models with suppressed power spectrum compared to the cold dark matter case, independently of the galaxy luminosity distribution. In particular, the requirement that the observed number of satellite galaxies not exceed the predicted abundance of dark matter sub-halos yields a limit of mX ≥ 3 keV at 1-σ and mX ≥ 2.3 keV at 2-σ confidence level for the mass of thermal warm dark matter particles. Such a limit is competitive with other limits set by the abundance of ultra-faint satellite galaxies in the Milky Way, is completely independent of baryon physics involved in galaxy formation, and has the potentiality for appreciable improvements with future observations. We extend our analysis to dark matter models based on sterile neutrinos, showing that our observations set tight constraints on the combination of sterile neutrino mass mν and mixing parameter sin2(2θ). We discuss the robustness of our results with respect to systematics. Based on observations made at the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) at Mt. Graham (Arizona, USA).

  15. SCIAMACHY observed changes in the column mixing ratio of methane over the Indian region and a comparison with global scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavitha, M.; Nair, Prabha R.

    2017-10-01

    The trends in the column averaged mixing ratio of methane (XCH4) over the Indian region during 2003-2009 periods were studied using the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) observations. Considering the sensor degradation, the trends were analyzed for 2003 to 2005 and 2006 to 2009 separately. Over India, the trend in XCH4 varied from 5.2 to 7.6 ppb per year after 2005, exhibiting a 2-4 fold increase compared to 2003-2005. While the increase over Northern parts of India is attributed to increasing CH4 emissions from rice cultivation and livestock population, those over Southern regions are due to increased oil and gas mining activities. A comparison of these trends with those over most of the hotspot regions over the globe revealed that those regions exhibited higher growth rates of XCH4 compared to Indian regions during 2006-2009. The seasonal patterns of XCH4 and near-surface CH4 at selected global network stations were also examined in detail. This analysis revealed hemispheric difference and varying seasonal patterns suggesting the inhomogeneous vertical distribution of CH4. The observed differences in the seasonal patterns of near-surface CH4 and XCH4 suggest that the surface emissions need not replicate at higher altitudes due to long-range transport, the boundary layer meteorology and lifetime of CH4 in the atmosphere.

  16. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  17. Testing different scenarios of emissions from global fossil fuel production using a multi-decadal record of simulated and observed ethane data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, L. B.; Butenhoff, C. L.; Rice, A. L.; Kahlil, A.

    2016-12-01

    Ethane is emitted with methane and other trace gases in the production of oil and natural gas during drilling, venting, flaring, and from infrastructure leaks during storage and distribution. Fugitive emissions from oil and gas production are one of the largest anthropogenic sources of ethane and methane and contribute significantly to global trends in their atmospheric burdens. The climate advantage of replacing coal with natural gas in energy portfolios depends critically on methane leakage rates. Because gas fluxes vary widely across production fields and distribution networks, efforts to estimate national and global rates of emissions using bottom-up accounting methods face significant challenges. Recent studies of firn and surface observations show a marked decline in global atmospheric ethane in the 1980s and 1990s which have been interpreted as a decline in fossil fuel ethane emissions. However, this conclusion is contradicted by some bottom-up emissions inventories and global inversions of isotopic methane which find fossil fuel emissions have been flat or increased during this time with a decline in biomass burning emissions. To investigate the temporal record of ethane emissions further, we use four decades (1982 - 2015) of surface air observations of ethane from three sampling networks to test competing ethane emissions scenarios evaluated with the three-dimensional atmospheric chemical-transport model GEOS-Chem. Because ethane's main sources (fossil fuel production, biomass and biofuel burning) have different spatial footprints, we hypothesize that temporal trends for each source, if they exist, will leave unique signatures in the latitudinal distribution of ethane over time. We use GEOS-Chem to predict the source latitudinal trend signatures and assess the ability of the observational ethane record to eliminate different emissions scenarios, providing insight into the recent history of fugitive emissions from fossil fuel production.

  18. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  19. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  20. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  1. Fellow use of medical jargon correlates inversely with patient and observer perceptions of professionalism: results of a rheumatology OSCE (ROSCE) using challenging patient scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Jessica R; Aizer, Juliet; Bass, Anne R; Blanco, Irene; Davidson, Anne; Dwyer, Edward; Fields, Theodore R; Huang, Wei-Ti; Kang, Jane S; Kerr, Leslie D; Krasnokutsky-Samuels, Svetlana; Lazaro, Deana M; Schwartzman-Morris, Julie S; Paget, Stephen A; Pillinger, Michael H

    2016-08-01

    The NYC Rheumatology Objective Structured Clinical Examination (NYC-ROSCE) is held annually to assess fellow competencies. We recently redesigned our OSCE to better assess subspecialty trainee communication skills and professionalism by developing scenarios in which the patients encountered were psychosocially or medically complex. The objective of this study is to identify which types of verbal and non-verbal skills are most important in the perception of professionalism in the patient-physician interaction. The 2012-2013 NYC-ROSCEs included a total of 53 fellows: 55 MD evaluators from 7 NYC rheumatology training programs (Hospital for Special Surgery-Weill Cornell (HSS), SUNY/Downstate, NYU, Einstein, Columbia, Mount Sinai, and North Shore/Long Island Jewish (NSLIJ)), and 55 professional actors/standardized patients participated in 5 stations. Quantitative fellow performance assessments were made on the following: maintaining composure; partnering with the patient; honesty; professionalism; empathy; and accountability. Free-text comments were solicited regarding specific strengths and weaknesses. A total of 53/53 eligible (100 %) fellows were evaluated. MD evaluators rated fellows lower for professionalism than did the standardized patients (6.8 ± 0.6 vs. 7.4 ± 0.8, p = 0.05), suggesting that physicians and patients view professionalism somewhat differently. Fellow self-evaluations for professionalism (6.6 ± 1.2) were concordant with those of the MD evaluators. Ratings of empathy by fellows themselves (6.6 ± 1.0), MD evaluators (6.6 ± 0.7), and standardized patients (6.6 ± 1.1) agreed closely. Jargon use, frequently cited by evaluators, showed a moderate association with lower professionalism ratings by both MD evaluators and patients. Psychosocially challenging patient encounters in the NYC-ROSCE permitted critical assessment of the patient-centered traits contributing to impressions of professionalism and indicate that

  2. Multi-wavelength Observations of the Gas-rich Host Galaxy of PDS 456: a New Challenge for the ULIRG-to-QSO Transition Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Yun, M S; Frayer, D T; Tilanus, R P J; Yun, Min S.

    2004-01-01

    We report new K-band, radio continuum, and CO (1-0) imaging observations and 850 micron photometric observations of PDS 456, the most luminous QSO in the local universe (z<0.3). The 0.6'' resolution K-band image obtained using the Keck telescope shows three compact K~16.5 (M(K)~ -21) sources at a projected distance of ~10 kpc to the southwest, and the host galaxy of PDS 456 may be interacting or merging with one or more companions. The observations using the OVRO millimeter array has revealed a narrow CO (1-0) line (FWHM = 181 km/s) centered at z=0.1849, and 9 x 10^9 solar mass of molecular gas mass is inferred. Radio continuum luminosity is nearly an order of magnitude larger than expected from its FIR luminosity, and the radio source, unresolved by the 2" beam of the VLA, is dominated by the AGN activity. Our 850 micron photometric observations suggest that the cold dust content of the host galaxy is less than one half of the amount in Arp 220. Its SED has both a QSO-like and a ULIRG-like nature, and the...

  3. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  4. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  5. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nord 2009]. Figure 1 shows the relationship between mission thread scenarios and QA scenarios. Mission thread scenarios contain steps that...Execute Health Severe Immediate Observed Flash Flood "No Special Handling" Actual Assess Meteorological Severe Expected Likely Tsunami "No Special...projects.shtm#6 (2011). CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 | 49 [ Nord 2009] Nord , R.; Bergey, J.; Blanchette, S.; & Klein, M. “The Impact of Conducting ATAM

  6. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  7. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  8. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  9. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  10. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  11. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  12. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  13. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  14. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  15. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  16. Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patell, Hilla

    2016-01-01

    In order to achieve the goal of observation, preparation of the adult, the observer, is necessary. This preparation, says Hilla Patell, requires us to "have an appreciation of the significance of the child's spontaneous activities and a more thorough understanding of the child's needs." She discusses the growth of both the desire to…

  17. Observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kripalani, Lakshmi A.

    2016-01-01

    The adult who is inexperienced in the art of observation may, even with the best intentions, react to a child's behavior in a way that hinders instead of helping the child's development. Kripalani outlines the need for training and practice in observation in order to "understand the needs of the children and...to understand how to remove…

  18. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  19. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  1. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  2. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  3. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  4. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  5. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  6. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  7. ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barklow, T; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision...

  8. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  9. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  10. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  12. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  13. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  14. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  15. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  16. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  17. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  18. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  19. Selecting Supersymmetric String Scenarios From Sparticle Spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Allanach, Benjamin C; Quevedo, Fernando

    2002-01-01

    We approach the following question: if supersymmetry is discovered, how can we select among different supersymmetric extensions of the Standard Model? In particular, we perform an analysis of the sparticle spectrum in low-energy string effective theories, asking which observables best distinguish various scenarios. We examine scenarios differing by the fundamental string scale and concentrate on GUT and intermediate scale models. We scan over all parameters (two goldstino angles, tan beta and the gravitino mass) in each scenario, finding ratios of sparticle masses that provide the maximum discrimination between them. The necessary accuracy for discrimination is determined in each case. We find that the required accuracy on various sparticle mass ratios is at the few percent level, a precision that may be achieved in future linear colliders. We place phenomenological constraints on the parameter space and determine the supersymmetric contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment.

  20. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Christian T; Liddle, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyse its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become non-relativistic, and change the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order $0.1$ typically. If the branching ratio is below about $10^{-4}$ it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  1. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  2. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  3. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...... into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon....

  4. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  5. Bell scenarios with communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brask, J. B.; Chaves, R.

    2017-03-01

    Classical and quantum physics provide fundamentally different predictions about experiments with separate observers that do not communicate, a phenomenon known as quantum nonlocality. This insight is a key element of our present understanding of quantum physics, and also enables a number of information processing protocols with security beyond what is classically attainable. Relaxing the pivotal assumption of no communication leads to new insights into the nature quantum correlations, and may enable new applications where security can be established under less strict assumptions. Here, we study such relaxations where different forms of communication are allowed. We consider communication of inputs, outputs, and of a message between the parties. Using several measures, we study how much communication is required for classical models to reproduce quantum or general no-signalling correlations, as well as how quantum models can be augmented with classical communication to reproduce no-signalling correlations.

  6. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  7. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  8. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  9. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  10. Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian;

    2009-01-01

    subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking......We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...

  11. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Naoya [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L., E-mail: nkobayas@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: erickcek@physics.unc.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H8 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  12. Rolling in the Modulated Reheating Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Erickcek, Adrienne L

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheated scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  13. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    The determination of climate policy is a decision under uncertainty. The uncertainty in future climate change impacts is large, as is the uncertainty in the costs of potential policies. Rational and economically efficient policy choices will therefore seek to balance the expected marginal costs with the expected marginal benefits. This approach requires that the risks of future climate change be assessed. The decision process need not be formal or quantitative for descriptions of the risks to be useful. Whatever the decision procedure, a useful starting point is to have as accurate a description of climate risks as possible. Given the goal of describing uncertainty in future climate change, we need to characterize the uncertainty in the main causes of uncertainty in climate impacts. One of the major drivers of uncertainty in future climate change is the uncertainty in future emissions, both of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important species such as sulfur dioxide. In turn, the drivers of uncertainty in emissions are uncertainties in the determinants of the rate of economic growth and in the technologies of production and how those technologies will change over time. This project uses historical experience and observations from a large number of countries to construct statistical descriptions of variability and correlation in labor productivity growth and in AEEI. The observed variability then provides a basis for constructing probability distributions for these drivers. The variance of uncertainty in growth rates can be further modified by expert judgment if it is believed that future variability will differ from the past. But often, expert judgment is more readily applied to projected median or expected paths through time. Analysis of past variance and covariance provides initial assumptions about future uncertainty for quantities that are less intuitive and difficult for experts to estimate, and these variances can be normalized and then applied to mean

  14. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  15. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  16. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  17. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  18. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  19. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  20. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  1. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  2. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  3. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  4. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  5. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are discussed: the limits to growth (the great tragedy and demise); sustainable development and ecological modernization (hope and innovation); and the Anthrop...

  6. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  7. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  8. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  9. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  10. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  11. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  12. Distinguishing new physics scenarios with polarized electron and positron beams

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A A Pankov; N Paver; A V Tsytrinov

    2007-11-01

    Contact-like nonstandard interactions can be revealed only through deviations of observables from the standard model (SM) predictions. We consider a number of such nonstandard scenarios, and discuss their identification as sources of deviations in fermion-pair production processes at the international linear collider (ILC), if they were observed. We emphasize the role of - and + polarization in enhancing the identification reaches.

  13. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  14. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  15. Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Observations and Statistically Downscaled Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This archive contains daily statistically downscaled climate projections and simulated land surface water and energy fluxes for the western United States and...

  16. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  17. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  18. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  19. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  20. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  1. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  2. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  3. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  4. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  5. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  6. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  7. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  8. Quest for potentials in the quintessence scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Hara, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    The time variation of the equation of state $w$ for quintessence scenario with a scalar field as dark energy is studied up to the third derivative ($d^3w/da^3$) with respect to the scale factor $a$, in order to predict the future observations and specify the scalar potential parameters with the observables. The third derivative of $w$ for general potential $V$ is derived and applied to several types of potentials. They are the inverse power-law ($V=M^{4+\\alpha}/Q^{\\alpha}$), the exponential ($V=M^4\\exp{(\\beta M/Q)}$), the cosine ($V=M^4(\\cos (Q/f)+1)$) and the Gaussian types ($V=M^4\\exp(-Q^2/\\sigma^2)$), which are prototypical potentials for the freezing and thawing models. If the parameter number for a potential form is $ n$, it is necessary to find at least for $n+2$ independent observations to identify the potential form and the evolution of the scalar field ($Q$ and $ \\dot{Q} $). Such observations would be the values of $ \\Omega_Q, w, dw/da. \\cdots $, and $ dw^n/da^n$. Since four of the above mentioned po...

  9. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  10. Multiple spin-state scenarios in organometallic reactivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dzik, W.I.; Böhmer, W.; de Bruin, B.; Swart, M.; Costas, M.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter gives an overview of the different spin-state crossing scenarios affecting the reactivity of organometallic compounds. It focuses on the effects of crossing spin states in a number of elementary reactions typically observed for organometallic compounds, such as ligand exchange,

  11. The development of the German energy market until 2030-A critical survey of selected scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keles, Dogan, E-mail: dogan.keles@kit.ed [Chair of Energy Economics, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76187 Karlsruhe (Germany); Moest, Dominik [Chair of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, Technische Universitaet Dresden (Germany); Fichtner, Wolf [Chair of Energy Economics, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76187 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: 'moderate', 'climate protection' and 'resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices'. Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust. - Research Highlights: {yields}German energy demand and electricity generation decreases in all energy scenarios. {yields}Strong growth of renewable energies within the primary energy demand. {yields}Some scenarios are less objective containing subjective or ideological assumptions. {yields}Iterative process during scenario generation leads to more robust scenarios.

  12. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  13. Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao

    This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from...... the system characteristics of environment uncertainties, complex process interactions, quantitative timing constraints, partial observability and combinations thereof. We make timed extensions to live sequence chart (LSC) such that the inter-process behaviors and scenario-based requirements of concurrent...

  14. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  15. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  16. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  17. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  18. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  19. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  20. An Interacting Two-Fluid Scenario for Quintom Dark Energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xin

    2005-01-01

    The Quintom dark energy is a proposal that explains the recent observations that mildly favor the equation of state of dark energy w crossing -1 near the past. The Quintom model is often constructed by two scalar fields, where one is the quintessence field and another is the phantom field. The cosmological implication of the coupling of the two fields of the dark energy is out of question worth investigating. However, the consideration of the coupling in the field scenario is somewhat complex thus we propose an interacting two-fluid Quintom scenario for simplicity. The interaction between the two components is parametrized by a constant η in this scenario. The cosmological implications of this parametrization are investigated in detail in this paper. Also, a diagnostic for this model is performed by using the statefinder pairs {s, r} and {q, r}.

  1. Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, J. M.; Brown, R. A.; Fu, J. S.; Hunt, W. F.

    2014-11-01

    The effect of climate change on stormwater controls is largely unknown. Evaluating such effects is important for understanding how well resiliency can be built into urban watersheds by implementing these systems. Bioretention areas with varied media depths, in situ soil types, drainage configurations, and surface infiltration capabilities have previously been monitored, modelled, and calibrated using the continuous simulation model, DRAINMOD. In this study, data from downscaled climate projections for 2055 through 2058 were utilized in these models to evaluate changes in system hydrologic function under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results were compared to those generated using a “Base” scenario of observed data from 2001 to 2004. The results showed a modest change in the overall water balance of the system. In particular, the frequency and magnitude of overflow from the systems substantially increased under the climate change scenarios. As this represents an increase in the amount of uncontrolled, untreated runoff from the contributing watersheds, it is of particular concern. Further modelling showed that between 9.0 and 31.0 cm of additional storage would be required under the climate change scenarios to restrict annual overflow to that of the base scenario. Bioretention surface storage volume and infiltration rate appeared important in determining a system's ability to cope with increased yearly rainfall and higher rainfall magnitudes. As climate change effects vary based on location, similar studies should be performed in other locations to determine localized effects on stormwater controls.

  2. Dispersion scenarios over complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Mikkelsen, T.; Moreno, J.

    1993-01-01

    A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series of simul......A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series...... are suitable for subsequent comparison with observed mean dispersion data when they become available....

  3. Quenching of high-pT hadrons: Alternative scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kopeliovich, B Z; Schmidt, Ivan

    2008-01-01

    A new scenario, alternative to energy loss, for the observed suppression of high-pT hadrons observed at RHIC is proposed. In the limit of a very dense medium crated in nuclear collisions the mean free-path of the produced (pre)hadron vanishes, and and the nuclear suppression, R_{AA} is completely controlled by the production length. The RHIC data are well explained in a parameter free way, and predictions for LHC are provided.

  4. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E. [Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Polytekhnicheskaya 26, 194021 St.-Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  5. Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario; Temperature et precipitations extremes sur la france dans un scenario de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

  6. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  7. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  8. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  9. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  10. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  11. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  12. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  13. Dispersion scenarios over complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Mikkelsen, T.; Moreno, J.

    1993-01-01

    A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series of simul......A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series...

  14. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  15. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  16. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  17. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  18. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  19. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  20. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  1. Would contact with extraterrestrials benefit or harm humanity? A scenario analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baum, Seth D; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn D; 10.1016/j.actaastro.2010.10.012

    2011-01-01

    While humanity has not yet observed any extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), contact with ETI remains possible. Contact could occur through a broad range of scenarios could occur that have varying consequences for humanity. However, many discussions of this question assume that contact will follow a particular scenario that derives from the hopes and fears of the author. In this paper, we analyze a broad range of contact scenarios in terms of whether contact with ETI would benefit or harm humanity. This type of broad analysis can help us prepare for actual contact with ETI even if the details of contact do not fully resemble any specific scenario.

  2. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    . The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

  3. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  4. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  5. A Hadronic Scenario for the Galactic Ridge

    CERN Document Server

    Gaggero, Daniele; Marinelli, Antonio; Urbano, Alfredo; Valli, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Several observations from Fermi-LAT, up to few hundred GeV, and from H.E.S.S., up to $\\sim$ 10 TeV, reported an intense $\\gamma$-ray emission from the inner part of the Galactic plane. After the subtraction of point-like contributions, the remaining $\\gamma$-ray spectrum can provide important hints about the cosmic-ray (CR) population in that region. In particular, the diffuse spectrum measured by both Fermi-LAT and H.E.S.S. in the Galactic Ridge is significantly harder with respect to the rest of the Galaxy. These results were recently interpreted in terms of a comprehensive CR transport model which, adopting a spatial dependent diffusion coefficient and convective velocity, reproduces Fermi-LAT results on the whole sky as well as local CR spectra. We showed as that model predicts a significantly harder neutrino diffuse emission compared to conventional scenarios: The predicted signal is able to account for a significant fraction of the astrophysical flux measured by IceCube. In this contribution, we use the...

  6. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  7. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  8. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  9. Ensemble simulations for the RCP8.5-Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The mean climatic development for Germany was investigated within the period 2031/60 in comparison to the situation in the observational period 1981/2010. The RCP8.5-Scenario of the IPCC was used because it reflects the actual CO2-emissions very well. On this basis the temperature trend for Germany was estimated using 21 GCM runs up to the year 2100. This temperature trend was the driving force for the statistical regional climate model STARS. 100 ensemble runs of the model STARS were compared with the scenario period and with the observational period. Temperature, precipitation, climatic water balance and some additional parameters were analyzed. One important result is the change in the distribution of precipitation in Germany during the year – decrease in summer, increase in winter. Finally the future climate development leads to a negative climatic water balance over the whole year.

  10. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  11. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  12. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  13. Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub

    2010-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., & Kurvers, H. J. (2010, 23 March). Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation during a workshop with Sector5, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands; iCoper.

  14. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology...

  15. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed...

  16. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  17. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  18. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  19. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  20. Model Learning for Probabilistic Simulation on Rare Events and Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-06

    observed data only. This is a problem called covariate shift in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the underestimation of our...fall records causing the events/scenarios. This is called a covariate shift problem in statistics . We need to calibrate the probability to avoid the...their causes and consequences. Their probabilities are also quantitatively provided based on the mathematically rigorous and probabilistic inference

  1. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  2. Nitrogen use scenario in India

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    A.; P.; Gupta

    2005-01-01

    Nitrogen is one of the major plant nutrients without which the agricultural production is not possible. Nitrogen use in Indian agriculture was nearly 55000 tons in 1950-1951 that increased to 11.31 million tons in 2001-2002. The total food production of the country has also experienced the similar increase from 50.83 to 222 million tons in the respective years. Interestingly the N fertilizer consumption of India remained almost constant during the last six years indicating the possibility of reducing N consumption. The highest N consumption is in North zone owing to the introduction of rice-wheat cropping system followed by West, South and East.The N use efficiency has been reported to be varying between 30% to 50% depending on the crops and the management. But in most of the cases, N use efficiency has been calculated based on the total N removed by the crops (above ground part only) ignoring the N content left in the roots. It has been observed in controlled experiments that the total N uptake by roots varied from 18% to 44% of the total N removed by the above ground parts, i.e. grain and straw. If the root N is also accounted, the N use efficiency will be higher than reported. The management of other organic sources has to be improved so as to increase the fertilizer use efficiency as well as to check the direct release of N in the atmosphere. In this review all these issues will be dealt.

  3. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission is currently in phase B and the launch is planned for 2011.

  4. Changes in Stratospheric ClO and HCl Concentrations Under Diff erent Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    In this study, comparison of model results and satellite observations reveals that the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-3) reasonably well reproduced the distributions and seasonal vari-ations of ClO and HCl concentrations. In three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1), the ClO, Cl, ClONO2, and HCl concentrations would gradually decrease with time as emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS) steadily decrease. The rates of the changes in the ClO, Cl, ClONO2, and HCl concentrations are diff erent in the same emission scenario and the rates of change in the same composition concentration are diff erent for diff erent emission scenarios. The ClO, Cl, and ClONO2 concentrations de-crease fastest in scenario A2, next fastest in scenario A1B, and slowest in scenario B1. In contrast, the HCl concentration decreases fastest in scenario B1. The ozone concentration recovers quickly, and is highest in scenario A2. The results show that a rapid decrease in the ClO concentration is an important reason for the accelerated recovery of the ozone layer in scenario A2.

  5. Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doyle, E J; Budny, R V; DeBoo, J C; Ferron, J R; Jackson, G L; Luce, T C; Murakami, M; Osborne, T H; Park, J; Politzer, P A; Reimerdes, H; Casper, T A; Challis, C D; Groebner, R J; Holcomb, C T; Hyatt, A W; La Haye, R J; McKee, G R; Petrie, T W; Petty, C C; Rhodes, T L; Shafer, M W; Snyder, P B; Strait, E J; Wade, M R; Wang, G; West, W P; Zeng, L

    2008-10-13

    The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for {beta}{sub N} and H{sub 98}, have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of {ge} 400 MW of fusion power production and Q {ge} 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification.

  6. Spatial precision vs large scale uncertainties in climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Potuznikova, K.

    2009-04-01

    In assessing climate change impacts on various weather dependent processes, weather series representing changed climate are required as an input to the impact models (for example crop growth models). In producing these series, the weather generator (WG) is often employed: WG parameters are derived from the observed series and then modified using the climate change scenario, which defines changes in the relevant climatic characteristics. These scenarios use to be derived either from GCM or RCM simulations. An advantage of using RCMs (with respect to using GCMs) consists in higher spatial resolution of simulated processes and thereby in higher spatial precision of RCM-based climate change scenario. On the other hand, advantage of using GCM-based scenarios consists in larger number of available GCM simulations, which allows to better account for the uncertainty in larger-scale patterns of climate change. This contribution aims to contribute to the discussion on the usefulness of RCMs in developing the climate change scenarios. To show the significancy of high resolution RCM based spatial signal in changes in relevant climatic characteristics, this signal will be compared with the uncertainty in GCM-simulated larger scale patterns of change. The former RCM-based signal will be derived from the RCM simulations made for the PRUDENCE project, the latter GCM based uncertainty will be based on simulations from a larger number of GCMs. The results will be shown in terms of maps for a whole Europe. Acknowledgements: The study is supported by 6th FP EU research project CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and GAAV grant agency (project IAA300420806 - "PRASCE").

  7. Computational studies of origins of life scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Damien Cherian

    processes we know today. We study a proposed origins of life scenario involving the clay montmorillonite, as well as a generalized form of a charged surface, and their catalytic role in forming oligonucleotides from activated mononucleotides. Clay and mineral surfaces are important for concentrating the reactants and for promoting nucleotide polymerization reactions. Using classical molecular dynamics methods we provide atomic details of reactant conformations prior to polynucleotide formation, lending insight into previously reported experimental observations of this phenomenon. The simulations clarify the catalytic role of metal ions, demonstrate that reactions leading to correct linkages take place primarily in the interlayer, and explain the observed sequence selectivity in the elongation of the chain. The study comparing reaction probabilities involving L- and D- chiral forms of the reactants has found enhancement of homochiral over heterochiral products when catalyzed by montmorillonite. Finally, we shift our perspective on the problem of the origins of life, by considering a modern biological reaction which is essential to all forms of life today: the charging of tRNA with correct amino acids according to their anticodons. These reactions are performed by amino-acyl tRNA synthetases (AARSs), and are essential for enforcing the genetic code. While studies involving the PR and code optimality apply to a more error-prone epoch of early biology, possibly forming "statistical proteins" whose sequence is determined probabilistically by a loose mechanism of assignment of amino acids based on (possibly) PR, the mechanisms that charge tRNA today are highly refined to charge only the correct amino acid to a tRNA, and are thus essential for the high-fidelity translation mechanism present in all living cells. To gain some insight into how the charging reaction may have come about, we apply quantum chemical methods to a problem of modern biology to gain a further understanding of

  8. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  9. Flare Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benz Arnold O.

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Solar flares are observed at all wavelengths from decameter radio waves to gamma-rays at 100 MeV. This review focuses on recent observations in EUV, soft and hard X-rays, white light, and radio waves. Space missions such as RHESSI, Yohkoh, TRACE, and SOHO have enlarged widely the observational base. They have revealed a number of surprises: Coronal sources appear before the hard X-ray emission in chromospheric footpoints, major flare acceleration sites appear to be independent of coronal mass ejections (CMEs, electrons, and ions may be accelerated at different sites, there are at least 3 different magnetic topologies, and basic characteristics vary from small to large flares. Recent progress also includes improved insights into the flare energy partition, on the location(s of energy release, tests of energy release scenarios and particle acceleration. The interplay of observations with theory is important to deduce the geometry and to disentangle the various processes involved. There is increasing evidence supporting reconnection of magnetic field lines as the basic cause. While this process has become generally accepted as the trigger, it is still controversial how it converts a considerable fraction of the energy into non-thermal particles. Flare-like processes may be responsible for large-scale restructuring of the magnetic field in the corona as well as for its heating. Large flares influence interplanetary space and substantially affect the Earth’s lower ionosphere. While flare scenarios have slowly converged over the past decades, every new observation still reveals major unexpected results, demonstrating that solar flares, after 150 years since their discovery, remain a complex problem of astrophysics including major unsolved questions.

  10. Two Different Bifurcation Scenarios in Neural Firing Rhythms Discovered in Biological Experiments by Adjusting Two Parameters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WV Xiao-Bo; MO Juan; YANG Ming-Hao; ZHENG Qiao-Hua; GU Hua-Guang; HEN Wei

    2008-01-01

    @@ Two different bifurcation scenarios, one is novel and the other is relatively simpler, in the transition procedures of neural firing patterns are studied in biological experiments on a neural pacemaker by adjusting two parameters. The experimental observations are simulated with a relevant theoretical model neuron. The deterministic non-periodic firing pattern lying within the novel bifurcation scenario is suggested to be a new case of chaos, which has not been observed in previous neurodynamical experiments.

  11. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  12. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  13. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  14. Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2014-01-01

    In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... the intrinsic propagation mechanisms of the urban environment (far-field) can contribute to the distortion of the radiation pattern observed in a practical deployment scenario, especially when comparing it to the antenna pattern provided by the manufacturer and typically measured in free space. This paper...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

  15. Matter Bounce Scenario in F(T) gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Haro, Jaume

    2015-01-01

    It is shown that teleparallel $F(T)$ theories of gravity combined with holonomy corrected Loop Quantum Cosmology (LQC) support a Matter Bounce Scenario (MBS) which is a potential alternative to the inflationary paradigm. The Matter Bounce Scenario is reviewed and, according to the current observational data provided by PLANCK's team, we have summarized all the conditions that it has to satisfy in order to be a viable alternative to inflation, such as to provide a theoretical value of the spectral index and its running compatible with the latest PLANCK data, to have a reheating process via gravitational particle production, or to predict some signatures in the non-gaussianities of the power spectrum. The calculation of the power spectrum for scalar perturbations and the ratio of tensor to scalar perturbations has been done, in the simplest case of an exact matter dominated background, for both holonomy corrected LQC and teleparallel $F(T)$ gravity. Finally, we have discussed the challenges (essentially, dealin...

  16. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...... optimization sets for corresponding optimization problems is useful in a power system context. Generating and evaluating such spacetime scenarios is difficult. While quite a number of proposals have appeared in the literature, a gap between methodological proposals and actual usage in operational and planning...... studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open...

  17. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    have accepted both functional foods and genetically modified foods. They have confidence in modern food production and believe they are well informed and have a realistic picture of how to produce modern foods. The last scenario 'Tight spending' is based on a lower disposable income and extensive......What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...

  18. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  19. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...... events and uncertainties, especially on long-term horizons such as 25-50 years ahead. In order to deal with these uncertainties, complexities and long-term challenges as well as to influence developments pro-actively, scenario planning is increasingly applied in both policy making and knowledge brokerage....... Scenarios can reveal uncertainties, can help prepare for unexpected changes and highlight crucial decisions to be taken today. Scenarios can offer a clearer picture of the present and visions for the future, can help to identify key driving forces and their trends as well as as-sess potential outcomes...

  20. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...... with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...

  1. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  2. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  3. Relic abundance of WIMPs in non-standard cosmological scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yimingniyazi, W.

    2007-08-06

    In this thesis we study the relic density n{sub {chi}} of non--relativistic long--lived or stable particles {chi} in various non--standard cosmological scenarios. First, we discuss the relic density in the non--standard cosmological scenario in which the temperature is too low for the particles {chi} to achieve full chemical equilibrium. We also investigated the case where {chi} particles are non--thermally produced from the decay of heavier particles in addition to the usual thermal production. In low temperature scenario, we calculate the relic abundance starting from arbitrary initial temperatures T{sub 0} of the radiation--dominated epoch and derive approximate solutions for the temperature dependence of the relic density which can accurately reproduces numerical results when full thermal equilibrium is not achieved. If full equilibrium is reached, our ansatz no longer reproduces the correct temperature dependence of the {chi} number density. However, we can contrive a semi-analytic formula which gives the correct final relic density, to an accuracy of about 3% or better, for all cross sections and initial temperatures. We also derive the lower bound on the initial temperature T{sub 0}, assuming that the relic particle accounts for the dark matter energy density in the universe. The observed cold dark matter abundance constrains the initial temperature T{sub 0} {>=}m{sub {chi}}/23, where m{sub {chi}} is the mass of {chi}. Second, we discuss the {chi} density in the scenario where the the Hubble parameter is modified. Even in this case, an approximate formula similar to the standard one is found to be capable of predicting the final relic abundance correctly. Choosing the {chi} annihilation cross section such that the observed cold dark matter abundance is reproduced in standard cosmology, we constrain possible modifications of the expansion rate at T {proportional_to}m{sub {chi}}/20, well before Big Bang Nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

  4. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  5. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  6. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  7. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  8. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  9. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  10. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  11. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  12. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  13. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

  14. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  16. The core-degenerate scenario for the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, B.; Zhou, W.-H.; Zuo, Z.-Y.; Li, Y.-B.; Luo, X.; Zhang, J.-J.; Liu, D.-D.; Wu, C.-Y.

    2017-02-01

    The origin of the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is still uncertain. The core-degenerate (CD) scenario has been proposed as an alternative way for the production of SNe Ia. In this scenario, SNe Ia are formed at the final stage of common-envelope evolution from a merger of a carbon-oxygen white dwarf (CO WD) with the CO core of an asymptotic giant branch companion. However, the birthrates of SNe Ia from this scenario are still not well determined. In this work, we performed a detailed investigation on the CD scenario based on a binary population synthesis approach. The SN Ia delay times from this scenario are basically in the range of 90-2500 Myr, mainly contributing to the observed SNe Ia with short and intermediate delay times, although this scenario can also produce some old SNe Ia. Meanwhile, our work indicates that the Galactic birthrates of SNe Ia from this scenario are not more than 20 per cent of total SNe Ia due to more careful treatment of mass transfer. Although the SN Ia birthrates in this work are lower than those in Ilkov & Soker, the CD scenario cannot be ruled out as a viable mechanism for the formation of SNe Ia. Especially, SNe Ia with circumstellar material from this scenario contribute to 0.7-10 per cent of total SNe Ia, which means that the CD scenario can reproduce the observed birthrates of SNe Ia like PTF 11kx. We also found that SNe Ia happen systemically earlier for a high value of metallicity and their birthrates increase with metallicity.

  17. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  18. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  19. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  20. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubert, B.; Rosegrant, M.; Boekel, van M.A.J.S.; Ortiz, R.

    2010-01-01

    This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the sce

  1. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  2. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  3. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar...

  4. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  5. Scenario simulation of water security in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUYANG Zhi-yun; ZHAO Tong-qian; WANG Ru-song; Leif S(O)RLUND; ZHANG Qiao-xian

    2004-01-01

    Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.

  6. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  7. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...

  8. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  9. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant clust

  10. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  11. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  12. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows...

  13. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  14. Demografische modellen voor scenario-onderzoek

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT

    1991-01-01

    A demographic model is described that has been used in scenario-research for calculating future population numbers. The demographic model developed is a discrete Markov-model. It calculates the changes in the Netherlands population numbers for each year successively. the model is specially develo

  15. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with varyin

  16. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  17. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  18. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  19. CIVILIZATION SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Kharin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern world plays an important role civilization factor. In this connection beforeRussiaa task stands forming of civilization identity. A problem consists in that, that exists a few scenarios of civilization development. To their consideration and this article is devoted.

  20. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  1. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  2. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  3. Hydrodynamical simulations of a compact source scenario for G2

    CERN Document Server

    Ballone, A; Burkert, A; Gillessen, S; Genzel, R; Fritz, T K; Eisenhauer, F; Pfuhl, O; Ott, T

    2013-01-01

    The origin of the dense gas cloud G2 discovered in the Galactic Center (Gillessen et al. 2012) is still a debated puzzle. G2 might be a diffuse cloud or the result of an outflow from an invisible star embedded in it. We present here detailed simulations of the evolution of winds on G2's orbit. We find that the hydrodynamic interaction with the hot atmosphere present in the Galactic Center and the extreme gravitational field of the supermassive black hole must be taken in account when modeling such a source scenario. We find that the hydrodynamic interaction with the hot atmosphere present in the Galactic Center and the extreme gravitational field of the supermassive black hole must be taken in account when modeling such a source scenario. We also find that in this scenario most of the Br\\gamma\\ luminosity is expected to come from the highly filamentary densest shocked wind material. G2's observational properties can be used to constrain the properties of the outflow and our best model has a mass outflow rate ...

  4. Attractor scenarios and superluminal signals in k-essence cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Kang, Jin U; Winitzki, Sergei

    2007-01-01

    Cosmological scenarios with k-essence are invoked in order to explain the observed late-time acceleration of the universe. These scenarios avoid the need for fine-tuned initial conditions (the "coincidence problem") because of the attractor-like dynamics of the k-essence field \\phi. It was recently shown that all k-essence scenarios with Lagrangians p=L(X)/\\phi^2, necessarily involve an epoch where perturbations of \\phi propagate faster than light (the "no-go theorem"). We carry out a comprehensive study of attractor-like cosmological solutions ("trackers") involving a k-essence scalar field \\phi and another matter component. The result of this study is a complete classification of k-essence Lagrangians that admit asymptotically stable tracking solutions, among all Lagrangians of the form p=K(\\phi)L(X) . Using this classification, we select the class of models that describe the late-time acceleration and avoid the coincidence problem through the tracking mechanism. An analogous "no-go theorem" still holds for...

  5. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    González Paula LM

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998, trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent

  6. Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

      The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor.  In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario...

  7. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  8. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  9. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  10. Triple Higgs Coupling as a Probe of the Twin-Peak Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Ahriche, Amine; Nasri, Salah

    2015-01-01

    In this letter, we investigate the case of a twin peak around the observed 125 GeV scalar resonance, using di-Higgs production processes at both LHC and $e^{+}e^{-}$ Linear Colliders. We show that the triple Higgs couplings play an important role to identify this scenario; and also that this scenario is surely distinguishable from any Standard Model extension by extra massive particles which might modify the triple Higgs coupling.

  11. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  12. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  13. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  14. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  15. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  16. Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Adolfo Sierra Romero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

  17. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in general as well as in the context of the CORPUS project. Moreover, it reviews recent examples of scenario building approaches in the sustainable food domain. The potential roles and applications of different types of scenarios such as backcasting or quantitative models and their benefit for policy making......Over the last few decades, considerable changes in food consumption – such as eating habits, dietary changes, availability and accessability of food – have taken place. These are mainly due to an increase in productivity of the food sector, a greater diversity in product choices and a decrease...... in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...

  18. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  19. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...... management systems. The study focuses on Europe in terms of waste composition and exchange with the energy system. The waste management systems modeled are described with respect to waste composition, waste management technologies, mass flows and energy exchange in the systems. Results are first presented...

  20. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  1. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  2. Visualization in sporting contexts : the team scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Kazmi, Aqeel H.; O'Grady, Michael J; O'Hare, G. M. P. (Greg M. P.)

    2011-01-01

    Wearable sensor systems require an interactive and communicative interface for the user to interpret data in a meaningful way. The development of adaptive personalization features in a visualization tool for such systems can convey a more meaningful picture to the user of the system. In this paper, a visualization tool called Visualization in Team Scenarios (VTS), which can be used by a coach to monitor an athlete’s physiological parameters, is presented. The VTS has been implemented with a w...

  3. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  4. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  5. Conditional Reasoning: Scenario or context effects

    OpenAIRE

    Valiña, Mª Dolores; Seoane, Gloria; Ghering, Sonnya; Ferraces, Mª José; Fernández-Rey, Xosé

    1992-01-01

    This paper study the importance of contextual factors in reasoning with conditional inference tasks. In this experiment subjects were given conditional sentences in the context of narrative texts, Short stories about scenarios of the daily life were described in this texts. The experiment manipulated: a) context (causal or promises/threats), b) degree of factual relation between antecedent and consequent of conditional (deterministic, probabilistic or without relation), c) congruence betwe...

  6. New procedure of generation of action scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniszewski, Michał; Wereszczyński, Kamil; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Fernes, Daniel; Segen, Jakub; Kulbacki, Marek; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2017-07-01

    Algorithms of tracking and action recognition are still under development and many problems still have to be solved. New methods are usually tested on available benchmarks with defined actions and human behavior however such approach has many limitations. For that reason the authors proposed new procedure of generating random action instances using on graph-based scenarios. Such idea can be applied in creation of different datasets as well as in simulations.

  7. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  8. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  9. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  10. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  11. R-modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gusakov, Mikhail E; Kantor, Elena M

    2016-01-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of millisecond pulsars (MSPs); and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at internal temperatures $T^\\infty\\sim 10^8$ K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here we argue, that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b) requires enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, $T^\\infty\\sim(1-2)\\times 10^7$ K. Observati...

  12. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  13. The core-degenerate scenario for the progenitors of type Ia supernovae

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Bo; Zuo, Zhaoyu; Li, Yinbi; Luo, Xia; Zhang, Jujia; Liu, Dongdong; Wu, Chengyuan

    2016-01-01

    The origin of the progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is still uncertain. The core-degenerate (CD) scenario has been proposed as an alternative way for the production of SNe Ia. In this scenario, SNe Ia are formed at the final stage of common-envelope evolution from a merger of a carbon-oxygen white dwarf (CO WD) with the CO core of an asymptotic giant branch companion. However, the birthrates of SNe Ia from this scenario are still not well determined. In this work, we performed a detailed investigation on the CD scenario based on a binary population synthesis approach. The SN Ia delay times from this scenario are basically in the range of 90Myr-2500Myr, mainly contributing to the observed SNe Ia with short and intermediate delay times although this scenario can also produce some old SNe Ia. Meanwhile, our work indicates that the Galactic birthrates of SNe Ia from this scenario are no more than 20% of total SNe Ia due to more careful treatment of mass transfer. Although the SN Ia birthrates in the pres...

  14. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  15. Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

  16. The Hubble Space Telescope UV Legacy Survey of Galactic Globular Clusters. V. Constraints on Formation Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Renzini, A; Cassisi, S; King, I R; Milone, A P; Ventura, P; Anderson, J; Bedin, L R; Bellini, A; Brown, T M; Piotto, G; van der Marel, R P; Barbuy, B; Dalessandro, E; Hidalgo, S; Marino, A F; Ortolani, S; Salaris, M; Sarajedini, A

    2015-01-01

    We build on the evidence provided by our Legacy Survey of Galactic globular clusters (GC) to submit to a crucial test four scenarios currently entertained for the formation of multiple stellar generations in GCs. The observational constraints on multiple generations to be fulfilled are manifold, including GC specificity, ubiquity, variety, predominance, discreteness, supernova avoidance, p-capture processing, helium enrichment and mass budget. We argue that scenarios appealing to supermassive stars, fast rotating massive stars and massive interactive binaries violate in an irreparable fashion two or more among such constraints. Also the scenario appealing to AGB stars as producers of the material for next generation stars encounters severe difficulties, specifically concerning the mass budget problem and the detailed chemical composition of second generation stars. We qualitatively explore ways possibly allowing one to save the AGB scenario, specifically appealing to a possible revision of the cross section o...

  17. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  18. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  19. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  20. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  1. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  2. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Linde, A; Vikman, A

    2009-01-01

    In a recent paper arXiv:0910.2230, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in arXiv:0910.2230 are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  3. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  4. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  5. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  6. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazeia, D; Menezes, R; Olmo, Gonzalo J; Rubiera-Garcia, D

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein's theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  7. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...

  8. The teaching profession: scenarios, profiles and tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Palomero Fernández

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the special issue of the Revista Electrónica Interuniversitaria de Formación del Profesorado, 35, volumen 13 (4 entitled The teaching profession: Scenarios, profiles and tendencies. It contains contributions from authors affiliated to twenty-eight different institutions across five countries: Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru. The twenty-eight articles included are followed by a number of PhD thesis summaries and book reviews, whose general framework is that of the teaching profession.

  9. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...

  10. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...... the inferred privacy region is a random set obtained by an adversary who only knows the anchor and the points received from the server, where the adversary ‘does the best' to infer the possible locations of the user. Probabilistic results related to the communication cost and the inferred privacy region...

  11. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  12. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  13. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  14. Observing participating observation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering

    2011-01-01

    Current methodology concerning participating observation in general leaves the act of observation unobserved. Approaching participating observation from systems theory offers fundamental new insights into the topic. Observation is always participation. There is no way to escape becoming...... as the idea of the naïve observer becomes a void. Not recognizing and observing oneself as observer and co-producer of empirical data simply leaves the process of observation as the major unobserved absorber of contingency in data production based on participating observation....

  15. Observing participating observation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering

    2010-01-01

    Current methodology concerning participating observation in general leaves the act of observation unobserved. Approaching participating observation from systems theory offers fundamental new insights into the topic. Observation is always participation. There is no way to escape becoming...... as the idea of the naïve observer becomes a void. Not recognizing and observing oneself as observer and co-producer of empirical data simply leaves the process of observation as the major unobserved absorber of contingency in data production based on participating observation....

  16. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  17. Numerical Simulation Study of the Sanchiao Fault Earthquake Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi-Min; Lee, Shiann-Jong

    2015-04-01

    Sanchiao fault is a western boundary fault of the Taipei basin located in northern Taiwan, close to the densely populated Taipei metropolitan area. Recent study indicated that there is about 40 km of the fault trace extended to the marine area offshore northern Taiwan. Combining the marine and terrestrial parts, the total fault length of Sanchiao fault could be nearly 70 kilometers which implies that this fault has potential to produce a big earthquake. In this study, we analyze several Sanchiao fault earthquake scenarios based on the recipe for predicting strong ground motion. The characterized source parameters include fault length, rupture area, seismic moment, asperity, and slip pattern on the fault plane. According to the assumption of the characterized source model, Sanchiao fault has been inferred to have the potential to produce an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 7.0. Three-dimensional seismic simulation results based upon spectral-element method (SEM) indicate that peak ground acceleration (PGA) is significantly stronger along the fault trace. The basin effect also plays an important role when wave propagates in the Taipei basin which cause seismic wave amplified and prolong the shaking for a very long time. Among all rupture scenarios, the rupture propagated from north to south is the most serious one. Owing to the rupture directivity as well as the basin effects, large PGA (>1g) was observed in the Taipei basin, especially in the northwest side. The results of these scenario earthquake simulations will provide important physically-based numerical data for earthquake mitigation and seismic hazard assessment.

  18. Observing participating observation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering

    2011-01-01

    Current methodology concerning participating observation in general leaves the act of observation unobserved. Approaching participating observation from systems theory offers fundamental new insights into the topic. Observation is always participation. There is no way to escape becoming...... a participant and, as such, co-producer of the observed phenomenon. There is no such thing as a neutral or objective description. As observation deals with differences and process meaning, all descriptions are reconstructions and interpretations of the observed. Hence, the idea of neutral descriptions as well...... as the idea of the naïve observer becomes a void. Not recognizing and observing oneself as observer and co-producer of empirical data simply leaves the process of observation as the major unobserved absorber of contingency in data production based on participating observation....

  19. Observing participating observation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Tina Bering

    2010-01-01

    Current methodology concerning participating observation in general leaves the act of observation unobserved. Approaching participating observation from systems theory offers fundamental new insights into the topic. Observation is always participation. There is no way to escape becoming...... a participant and, as such, co-producer of the observed phenomenon. There is no such thing as a neutral or objective description. As observation deals with differences and process meaning, all descriptions are re-constructions and interpretations of the observed. Hence, the idea of neutral descriptions as well...... as the idea of the naïve observer becomes a void. Not recognizing and observing oneself as observer and co-producer of empirical data simply leaves the process of observation as the major unobserved absorber of contingency in data production based on participating observation....

  20. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  1. Robustness of WLO-scenarios; Bestendigheid van WLO-scenario's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilbers, H.; Snellen, D.

    2010-12-15

    Developments in demography, economy and mobility have been showing major fluctuations in the last decade. As a result the question rose whether the WLO future scenarios, which provide an important basis for the spatial policy of the Dutch government, are still usable. This turns out to be the case. Most of the fluctuations of recent years are still within the margins of the sketched scenarios. [Dutch] De ontwikkelingen in demografie, economie en mobiliteit vertonen de laatste tien jaar grote schommelingen. Daarmee rees de vraag of de WLO-toekomstscenario's, die een belangrijke basis vormen voor het ruimtelijk beleid van de rijksoverheid, nog steeds bruikbaar zijn. Dat blijkt zo te zijn. De schommelingen van de laatste jaren vallen merendeels nog steeds binnen de marges van de geschetste scenario's.

  2. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wächter Petra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30–40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  3. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  4. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  5. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  6. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  7. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  8. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  9. Scenarios for the South African Water Sector in 2025; Presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Funke, Nicola S

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available do to ensure they have the scenario information they need to make important decisions at their disposal? • Develop scenarios when needed • Engage with science councils, research organisations and boundary organisations to access latest relevant...

  10. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  11. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  12. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  13. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I......), often fail to meaningfullyconnect with the situation, decision-makers or concerns at hand, and tend to lean towardsexperts. Some of these new mediated practices shift away from more technocratic models ofparticipation that often display an impoverish understanding of the co-production of technologyand...

  14. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  15. Scenario-building considerations for financial planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, S.; Carino, D.

    1994-12-31

    The construction of scenarios is an essential model-building step in stochastic programming. When a discrete sample of scenarios is chosen to represent a continuity of potential outcomes, scenario choice can impact both solution speed and quality. For financial planning models, techniques are discussed that ensure a scenario set matches moments of the continuous distribution and improvements in solution speed and quality are investigated.

  16. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a simulation study on the generation of a random scenario for the performance of track splitting algorithm on a digital signal processor.  Much of the previous work [1] was done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios...

  17. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  18. Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

  19. Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Ashley B; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

  20. Necrobiosis lipoidica: A clinicopathological study in the Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Necrobiosis lipoidica (NL is a chronic granulomatous dermatitis that is commonly associated with diabetes mellitus. Most of the current knowledge about this entity is from western literature. Aims: This study evaluates the clinicohistological features of NL in an Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed clinical features, associated comorbidities, and biopsies of all patients with NL over a period of one year. Results: Five cases of NL were seen during the duration of the study. The preliminary clinical diagnosis ranged from sarcoidosis to tinea incognito. The commonest clinical presentation in the Indian scenario was of asymptomatic erythematous to skin-colored plaques and nodules on the shins with or without central atrophy. The most common site of involvement was the shin (3 of 5 patients. NL was associated with Diabetes mellitus in only two cases, both of whom were male patients. On histology, various patterns of inflammation were seen including the palisading, interstitial, and mixed granulomatous infiltrates. One patient had sarcoidal granulomas in association with an interstitial pattern. Features seen consistently in all cases include perivascular lymphoplasmacytic infiltrates, interstitial lymphocytic infiltrates, and fibroplasia. Interstitial mucin deposition was not observed in any of the biopsies. Conclusion: The diagnosis of NL was missed in most cases due to the rarity of the disease, absence of concomitant diabetes, and atypical presentations. Histology was a useful tool in clinching the diagnosis.

  1. Neutrinos from Type Ia Supernovae: The Gravitationally Confined Detonation Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Wright, Warren P; Ohlmann, Sebastian T; Roepke, Friedrich K; Scholberg, Kate; Seitenzahl, Ivo R

    2016-01-01

    Despite their use as cosmological distance indicators and their importance in the chemical evolution of Galaxies, the unequivocal identification of the progenitor systems and explosion mechanism of normal Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) remains elusive. The leading hypothesis is that such a supernova is a thermonuclear explosion of a carbon-oxygen white dwarf but the exact explosion mechanism is still a matter of debate. Observation of a Galactic SN Ia would be of immense value in answering the many open questions related to these events. One potentially useful source of information about the explosion mechanism and progenitor is the neutrino signal. In this paper we compute the expected neutrino signal from a Gravitationally Confined Detonation (GCD) explosion scenario for a SN~Ia and show how the flux at Earth contains features in time and energy unique to this scenario. We then calculate the expected event rates in the Super-K, Hyper-K, JUNO, DUNE, and IceCube detectors and find both Hyper-K and IceCube would se...

  2. New inflationary scenarios from D7-brane dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraus, Sebastian

    2014-11-26

    We analyze whether a D7-brane position modulus in Type IIB string compactifications can be a suitable inflaton candidate. To this end, we study two rather different scenarios: In the first, the inflaton is associated with the distance of two D7-branes. Inflation is driven by a brane-flux-induced D-term energy and proceeds as the branes approach each other. It ends in a tachyonic instability. This model thus represents a string-theoretic version of D-term hybrid inflation. In the second model, the inflaton is the position modulus of a single D7-brane. During inflation this modulus traverses a large distance in Planck units. This is possible due to a monodromy in field space. The brane displacement leads to a continuously changing F-term energy which drives (chaotic) inflation. We explicitly analyze the intricate interplay of each scenario with moduli stabilization. In particular, since Kaehler moduli are fixed by higher-order terms in the scalar potential, their masses are typically relatively small. We demonstrate that, nonetheless, in our models the inflaton potential does not upset Kaehler moduli stabilization. Finally, we show that both models can be in agreement with the most recent cosmological observations, while their implications for the size of the tensor-to-scalar ratio are very different.

  3. GNSS Reliability Testing in Signal-Degraded Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Angrisano

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiconstellation satellite navigation is critical in signal-degraded environments where signals are strongly corrupted. In this case, the use of a single GNSS system does not guarantee an accurate and continuous positioning. A possible approach to solve this problem is the use of multiconstellation receivers that provide additional measurements and allows robust reliability testing; in this work, a GPS/GLONASS combination is considered. In urban scenario, a modification of the classical RAIM technique is necessary taking into account frequent multiple blunders. The FDE schemes analysed are the “Observation Subset Testing,” “Forward-Backward Method,” and “Danish Method”; they are obtained by combining different basic statistical tests. The considered FDE methods are modified to optimize their behaviour in urban scenario. Specifically a preliminary check is implemented to screen out bad geometries. Moreover, a large blunder could cause multiple test failures; hence, a separability index is implemented to avoid the incorrect exclusion of blunder-free measurements. Testing the RAIM algorithms of GPS/GLONASS combination to verify the benefits relative to GPS only case is a main target of this work too. The performance of these methods is compared in terms of RMS and maximum error for the horizontal and vertical components of position and velocity.

  4. Evolution of dwarf galaxies simulated in the cosmological LCDM scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Samaniego, Alejandro; Colin, Pedro; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Valenzuela, Octavio

    2014-03-01

    We present results from numerical simulations of low-mass galaxies with the aim to explore the way their stellar masses are assembled. We analyze how the mass assembly histories of the parent halo determine the growth of their host galaxy and its implications on the current paradigm of formation and evolution of low-mass structures in the LCDM scenario. We have found that low-mass galaxies simulated in this scenario assemble their stellar masses following roughly the dark matter halo assembly, which seems to be in tension with the downsizing trend suggested by current observational inferences. We show that there is no more room to increase the strength of feedback from astrophysical processes in order to deviate strongly the stellar mass assembly from the dark halo one, as has been recently invoked to solve some of the potential issues faced by CDM-based simulations of dwarf galaxies. Alejandro González acknowledges finacial support from UNAM, Fundacion UNAM, and the APS to attend this meeting.

  5. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    with economic and regulatory influences differently from other sources. The shifting stock of vessels from new-builds serving primary markets in one region to aging vessel technologies serving secondary markets produces substantial differences in future activity projections. This is compounded by the emissions differences between vessels on liner schedules and ships with similar technologies operating on charter or spot-market bases. Different rates of change drive growth among vessel types differently, so regional pattern shifts will occur, and need to be forecast or depicted in scenarios. Regulatory pathways are emerging with less clarity, but affect regional marine inputs. Scientists who measure emissions need to engage engineering principles of combustion, economics principles of supply and demand, and policy inputs to produce inventories that are more coherent, and more useful to the emerging purposes. Moreover, advanced studies (e.g., inverse modeling, source attribution, and control scenario validation) require design of “closure experiments”, where modeling of inventory measurements and modeled ambient impacts is corroborated and reconciled with field stack measurements and field observation campaigns. The most recent shipping inventories and scenarios are now providing details that recognize and address these issues.

  6. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  7. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  8. A scenario based project portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Pourahmadi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

  9. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  10. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...... the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), which has a lot of parallels with the MOLAND approach, known from various research applications. As we are new to land use modelling, this exercise should also illustrate the possibilities of non-modelling experts to elaborate a practical...

  11. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  12. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  13. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....

  14. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Turok, N G; Turok, Neil; Seinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the Cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflat...

  15. Distributed Function Computation in Asymmetric Communication Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Agnihotri, Samar

    2009-01-01

    We consider the distributed function computation problem in asymmetric communication scenarios, where the sink computes some deterministic function of the data split among N correlated informants. The distributed function computation problem is addressed as a generalization of distributed source coding (DSC) problem. We are mainly interested in minimizing the number of informant bits required, in the worst-case, to allow the sink to exactly compute the function. We provide a constructive solution for this in terms of an interactive communication protocol and prove its optimality. The proposed protocol also allows us to compute the worst-case achievable rate-region for the computation of any function. We define two classes of functions: lossy and lossless. We show that, in general, the lossy functions can be computed at the sink with fewer number of informant bits than the DSC problem, while computation of the lossless functions requires as many informant bits as the DSC problem.

  16. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows....... It jointly performs congestion control and inter-cell interference avoidance by means of a utility describing the cell's channel. Centralized and uncoordinated schemes are studied. The first is defined as an integer linear program, while the second builds on the best channel utility developed for the first...... and combines it with a stochastic admission process. Based on simulation evaluation, it is shown that uncoordinated is near-optimal, while providing a viable solution for uncoordinated small cell deployments. Finally, the best utility developed proved better than the traditional power allocation....

  17. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...... development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...

  18. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  19. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-08-09

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulkarni Dhananjay M

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease.

  1. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  2. Inhomogeneous reheating scenario with DBI fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng

    2010-08-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed cs from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL is independent of cs. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  3. The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saueressig, Frank [Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Asymptotic safety offers the possibility that gravity constitutes a consistent and predictive quantum field theory within Wilsons generalized framework of renormalization. The key ingredient of this scenario is a non-trivial fixed point of the gravitational renormalization group flow which governs the UV behavior of the theory. The fixed point itself thereby guarantees the absence of unphysical UV divergences while its associated finite-dimensional UV-critical surface ensures the predictivity of the resulting quantum theory. This talk summarizes the evidence for the existence of such a fixed point, which emerged from the flow equation for the effective average action, the gravitational beta-functions in 2+{epsilon} dimensions, the 2-Killing vector reduction of the gravitational path-integral and lattice simulations. Possible phenomenological consequences are discussed in detail.

  4. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  5. Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai-Yuan; Wu Pu-Xun; Yu Hong-Wei

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton-Jacobi formalism,where the Friedmann equation has the form of H2 =ρ + ε√2ρ0ρ or H2 =ρ + ερ2/2σ,with ε =+ 1.We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential.However,in the case of a-ρ2 correction to the standard cosmology with ρ < σ,the existence of an attractor solution requires (σ-ρ)/φ2 > 1.Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology,which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction.Thus,the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

  6. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  7. Inhomogeneous Reheating Scenario with DBI fields

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Sheng

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed $c_s$ from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{NL}$ is independent of $c_s$. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  10. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  11. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  12. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Darabi, F. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Research Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics of Maragha (RIAAM), Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheykhi, A. [College of Sciences, Shiraz University, Physics Department and Biruni Observatory, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} where N{sub bulk} and N{sub sur} are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper,we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} - N{sub extr} where N{sub extr} is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N{sub sur} and N{sub bulk} are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields. (orig.)

  13. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  14. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  15. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  16. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  17. First Gravitational-Wave Burst GW150914. Part I. Scenario Machine Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lipunov, V M; Gorbovskoy, E; Tiurina, N; Balanutsa, P; Kuznetsov, A

    2016-01-01

    The Advanced LIGO observatory recently reported the first direct detection of gravitational waves predicted by Einstein (1916). The detection of the event confirmed the main prediction of the pop- ulation synthesis performed with the Scenario Machine and formulated in the title of the paper by Lipunov, Postnov & Prokhorov (1997b): "First LIGO events: binary black holes merging". We dis- cuss the parameters of black holes and event rates predicted different binary scenario evolution. We give simple explanation of the big difference between detected black holes masses and mean black hole mass statistic from observations X-ray Nova systems. Proximity of the mass components GW150914 is good agreement with the observed mass ratio distribution in massive binary systems, which usually used in Scenario Machine calculations for massive binaries.

  18. The first gravitational-wave burst GW150914, as predicted by the scenario machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipunov, V. M.; Kornilov, V.; Gorbovskoy, E.; Tiurina, N.; Balanutsa, P.; Kuznetsov, A.

    2017-02-01

    The Advanced LIGO observatory recently reported (Abbott et al., 2016a) the first direct detection of gravitational waves predicted by Einstein (1916). The detection of this event was predicted in 1997 on the basis of the Scenario Machine population synthesis calculations (Lipunov et al., 1997b) Now we discuss the parameters of binary black holes and event rates predicted by different scenarios of binary evolution. We give a simple explanation of the big difference between detected black hole masses and the mean black hole masses observed in of X-ray Nova systems. The proximity of the masses of the components of GW150914 is in good agreement with the observed initial mass ratio distribution in massive binary systems, as is used in Scenario Machine calculations for massive binaries.

  19. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  20. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...

  1. Heteronuclear Efimov scenario with positive intraspecies scattering lengths

    CERN Document Server

    Ulmanis, Juris; Pires, Rico; Kuhnle, Eva D; Wang, Yujun; Greene, Chris H; Weidemüller, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    We investigate theoretically and experimentally the heteronuclear Efimov scenario for a three-body system that consists of two bosons and one distinguishable particle with repulsive intraspecies interactions. The three-body parameter at the three-body scattering threshold and the scaling factor between consecutive Efimov resonances are found to be controlled by the scattering length between the two bosons, approximately independent of short-range physics. We observe two excited-state Efimov resonances in the three-body recombination spectra of an ultracold mixture of fermionic $^6 $Li and bosonic $^{133} $Cs atoms close to a Li-Cs Feshbach resonance, where the Cs-Cs interaction is repulsive. Deviation of the obtained scaling factor of 4.0(3) from the universal prediction of 4.9 and the absence of the ground state Efimov resonance shed new light on the interpretation of the universality and the discrete scaling behavior of heteronuclear Efimov physics.

  2. Fine-tuning challenges for the matter bounce scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Levy, Aaron M

    2016-01-01

    A bouncing universe with a long period of contraction during which the average density is pressureless (the same equation of state as matter) as cosmologically observable scales exit the Hubble horizon has been proposed as an explanation for producing a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations. A well-known problem with this scenario is that, unless suppressed, the energy density associated with anisotropy grows faster than that of the pressureless matter, so the matter-like phase is unstable. Previous models introduce an ekpyrotic phase after the matter-like phase to prevent the anisotropy from generating chaotic mixmaster behavior. In this work, though, we point out that, unless the anisotropy is suppressed first, the matter-like phase will never start and that suppressing the anisotropy requires extraordinary, exponential fine-tuning.

  3. Slow-roll inflationary scenario in the maximally extended background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asgari, Ali A.; Abbassi, Amir H. [Tarbiat Modares University, Department of Physics, School of Sciences, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    During the inflationary epoch, the geometry of the universe may be described by a quasi-de Sitter space. On the other hand, the maximally extended de Sitter metric in the comoving coordinates accords with a special FLRW model with positive spatial curvature; therefore, the focus of the present paper is on the positively curved inflationary paradigm, for which we first of all derive the power spectra of comoving curvature perturbation and primordial gravitational waves in a positively curved FLRW universe according to the slowly rolling inflationary scenario. It can be shown that the curvature spectral index in this model automatically has a small negative running parameter, compatible with observational measurements. Afterwards, by taking into account the curvature factor, it investigates the relative amplitude of the scalar and tensor perturbations, clarifying that the tensor-scalar ratio for this model, against the spatially flat one, directly depends on the wavelength of the perturbative modes. (orig.)

  4. Slow-roll inflationary scenario in the maximally extended background

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asgari, Ali A.; Abbassi, Amir H., E-mail: ahabbasi@modares.ac.ir [Department of Physics, School of Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14155-4838, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-11-21

    During the inflationary epoch, the geometry of the universe may be described by a quasi-de Sitter space. On the other hand, the maximally extended de Sitter metric in the comoving coordinates accords with a special FLRW model with positive spatial curvature; therefore, the focus of the present paper is on the positively curved inflationary paradigm, for which we first of all derive the power spectra of comoving curvature perturbation and primordial gravitational waves in a positively curved FLRW universe according to the slowly rolling inflationary scenario. It can be shown that the curvature spectral index in this model automatically has a small negative running parameter, compatible with observational measurements. Afterwards, by taking into account the curvature factor, it investigates the relative amplitude of the scalar and tensor perturbations, clarifying that the tensor–scalar ratio for this model, against the spatially flat one, directly depends on the wavelength of the perturbative modes.

  5. Heteronuclear Efimov Scenario with Positive Intraspecies Scattering Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulmanis, Juris; Häfner, Stephan; Pires, Rico; Kuhnle, Eva D.; Wang, Yujun; Greene, Chris H.; Weidemüller, Matthias

    2016-10-01

    We investigate theoretically and experimentally the heteronuclear Efimov scenario for a three-body system that consists of two bosons and one distinguishable particle with positive intraspecies scattering lengths. The three-body parameter at the three-body scattering threshold and the scaling factor between consecutive Efimov resonances are found to be controlled by the scattering length between the two bosons, approximately independent of short-range physics. We observe two excited-state Efimov resonances in the three-body recombination spectra of an ultracold mixture of fermionic 6Li 6 and bosonic 113Cs atoms close to a Li-Cs Feshbach resonance, where the Cs-Cs interaction is positive. Deviation of the obtained scaling factor of 4.0(3) from the universal prediction of 4.9 and the absence of the ground state Efimov resonance shed new light on the interpretation of the universality and the discrete scaling behavior of heteronuclear Efimov physics.

  6. A "Domain Wall" Scenario for the AdS/QCD

    CERN Document Server

    Shuryak, Edward

    2007-01-01

    We propose a scenario for bottom-up gravity dual picture of QCD-like theories, which consists of two near-AdS$_5$ domains separated by the "domain wall" at which the effective coupling relatively rapidly switches from small perturbative value at its UV side to strong at its IR side. The proposed mechanism for this jump is related to instantons, which are located at/near this wall. We further argue that in the limit of large number of colors $N_c\\to\\infty$ the "domain wall" is becoming a singularity. The instanton liquid model is reformulated in $AdS_5$ language, where instantons became point-like quark vertices on the domain wall. Among applications one may consider lowest mesons as collective vibrations of this "wall". We suggest that the "wall" can be observed in a strong-to-weak transitions of various QCD processes and provide estimate for jump magnitude for various exclusive processes.

  7. A minimal three generation seesaw scenario for LSND

    CERN Document Server

    Brahmachari, B; Mohapatra, Rabindra N; Brahmachari, Biswajoy; Choubey, Sandhya; Mohapatra, Rabindra N.

    2002-01-01

    We show that in the minimal three generation seesaw models for neutrinos, the presence of leptonic $(L_e+L_{\\mu}-L_{\\tau})\\times S_2$ symmetry leads to one of the right handed neutrinos remaining massless. This state can then be identified with the sterile neutrino required for a simultaneous understanding of solar, atmospheric and LSND observations. We present a gauge model where the presence of higher dimensional operators originating from Planck scale physics lead to a realistic 2+2 mixed scenario that fits all oscillation data. The model predicts a range for the mixing angle $U_{e3}$ and an effective mass for neutrinos emitted in tritium decay, which can be used to test this model.

  8. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    León-Montiel, R de J; Moya-Cessa, H M; Torres, J P

    2015-01-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compo...

  9. Modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary model in braneworld scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila; Mohsaneen, Sidra

    2016-05-01

    We investigate the modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary regime in the brane-world framework in the presence of standard and tachyon scalar fields. We consider the intermediate inflationary scenario and construct the slow-roll parameters, e-folding numbers, spectral index, scalar and tensor power spectra, tensor to scalar ratio for both scalar field models. We develop the ns - N and r - N planes and concluded that ns˜eq96^{+0.5}_{-0.5} and r≤0.0016 for N˜eq60^{+5}_{-5} in both cases of scalar field models as well as for all values of m. These constraints are consistent with observational data such as WMAP7, WMAP9 and Planck data.

  10. Properties of disk galaxies in a hierarchical formation scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Avila-Reese, V

    2000-01-01

    We used galaxy evolutionary models in a hierarchical inside-out formation scenario to study the origin of the main properties and correlations of disk galaxies. We found that most of these properties and correlations are the result of three (cosmological) initial factors and their dispersions: the virial mass, the halo mass aggregation history (MAH), and the angular momentum given through the spin parameter \\lambda. The MAH determines mainly the halo structure and the color indexes while \\lambda determines mainly the surface brightness and the bulge-to-disk ratio. We calculated star formation (SF) using a gravitational instability criterion and a self-regulation mechanism in the turbulent ISM. The efficiency of SF in this model is almost independent from the mass. We show that the luminosity-dependent dust absorption empirically determined by Wang & Heckman explains the observed color-magnitude and color Tully-Fisher (TF) relations without the necessity of introducing a mass-dependent SF efficiency. The d...

  11. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  12. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  13. How plausible are the proposed formation scenarios of CEMP-r/s stars?

    CERN Document Server

    Abate, Carlo; Liu, Zheng-Wei

    2016-01-01

    CEMP-$r/s$ stars are metal-poor stars with enhanced abundances of carbon and heavy elements associated with the slow ($s$-) and rapid ($r$-) neutron-capture process. It is believed that carbon and $s$-elements were accreted from the wind of an AGB primary star, a scenario that is generally accepted to explain the formation of CEMP stars that are only enhanced in $s$-elements (CEMP-$s$ stars). The origin of $r$-element-enrichment in CEMP-$r/s$ stars is debated and many formation scenarios have been put forward. We aim to determine the likelihood of the scenarios proposed to explain the formation of CEMP-$r/s$ stars. We calculate the frequency of CEMP-$r/s$ stars among CEMP-$s$ stars for a variety of scenarios, and we compare it with that determined from an observed sample of CEMP-$r/s$ stars collected from the literature. The theoretical frequency of CEMP-$r/s$ stars predicted in most scenarios underestimates the observed ratio by at least a factor of 5. If the enrichments in $s$- and $r$-elements are independ...

  14. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  15. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  16. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  17. Observer's observables. Residual diffeomorphisms

    CERN Document Server

    Duch, Paweł; Świeżewski, Jedrzej

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the fate of diffeomorphisms when the radial gauge is imposed in canonical general relativity. As shown elsewhere, the radial gauge is closely related to the observer's observables. These observables are invariant under a large subgroup of diffeomorphisms which results in their usefulness for canonical general relativity. There are, however, some diffeomorphisms, called residual diffeomorphisms, which might be "observed" by the observer as they do not preserve her observables. The present paper is devoted to the analysis of these diffeomorphisms in the case of the spatial and spacetime radial gauges. Although the residual diffeomorphisms do not form a subgroup of all diffeomorphisms, we show that their induced action in the phase space does form a group. We find the generators of the induced transformations and compute the structure functions of the algebras they form. The obtained algebras are deformations of the algebra of the Euclidean group and the algebra of the Poincar\\'e group in the spat...

  18. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  19. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  20. New Physics scenarios in light of new and old flavour data

    CERN Document Server

    Carlucci, Maria Valentina

    2012-01-01

    The flavour observables currently in the spotlight because of the recent experimental updates or because of the presence of tensions with the Standard Model predictions are reviewed in their main aspects. These quantities suggest the development of a particular strategy for testing the viability of Beyond Standard Model scenarios that is applied for a qualitative analysis of different patterns of flavour violation.

  1. Nonmonotonous concentration behaviour of T sub c in Van-Hove scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kozlov, A N

    2002-01-01

    Dependence of T sub c on doping in the Hubbard model with a low- repulsion in the range of carrier concentration, where the Cooper amplitude depends on the system vicinity to spin density wave transition, is considered. It is shown that in the Van Hove scenario in the range of optimal doping nonmonotonous dependence of T sub c on carrier concentration is observed

  2. Hepatotoxicity and the present herbal hepatoprotective scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyankar Dey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the metabolic and physiological processes of our body as well as the detoxification of various drugs and xenobiotic chemicals occur in the liver. During this detoxification process, the reactive chemical intermediates damage the liver severely. There are several commercially available drugs, consumption of which results in idiosyncratic drug reaction mediated hepatotoxicity. Drug induced hepatotoxicity is a burning problem in this regard and several drugs are withdrawn from the market due to their hepatotoxic nature. Today, worldwide search of non-hepatotoxic drugs, especially potent hepatoprotective drugs have led towards the screening of numerous herbal products. Pharmaceutical companies and scientific communities have started to consider the therapeutic efficiency of the plant-based hepatoprotective remedies. Different herbs are mentioned in various ethnopharmacological practices possessing hepatoprotective capacities and around the globe, such herbs are still used by people to cure certain liver diseases. Therefore, we have documented the various aspects of hepatotoxicity and an overview on the current scenario of the hepatoprotective herbal remedies.

  3. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  4. General Relativistic Simulations of the Collapsar Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    DeBrye, N; Aloy, M A; Font, J A

    2013-01-01

    We are exploring the viability of the collapsar model for long-soft gamma-ray bursts. For this we perform state-of-the-art general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in a dynamically evolving space-time with the CoCoNuT code. We start from massive low metallicity stellar models evolved up to core gravitational instability, and then follow the subsequent evolution until the system collapses forming a compact remnant. A preliminary study of the collapse outcome is performed by varying the typical parameters of the scenario, such as the initial stellar mass, metallicity, and rotational profile of the stellar progenitor. 1D models (without rotation) have been used to test our newly developed neutrino leakage scheme. This is a fundamental piece of our approach as it allows the central remnant (in all cases considered, a metastable high-mass neutron star) to cool down, eventually collapsing to a black hole. In two dimensions, we show that sufficiently fast rotating cores lead to the formation of Kerr black holes...

  5. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  6. Dynamical scenarios for chromosome bi-orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-06-18

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly.

  7. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  8. Future Scenario of Renewable Energy in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kumar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review about future scenario of renewable energy in India.Energy is a vital input for economic and social development of any country. With increasing industrialand agricultural activities in the country, the demand for energy is also rising. Solar, wind and biomassare accepted as dependable and widely available renewable sources of energy. To meet the energy requirement for such a fast growingeconomy, India will require an assured supply of 3–5 times more energy than the total energy consumedtoday. The renewable energy is one of the options to meet this requirement Energy is the prime mover of economic growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. Future economic growth crucially depends on the long-term availability of energy from sources that are affordable, accessible and environmentally friendly. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. This paper presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India. In this paper evaluation of current energy policies for conquering the obstructions and implementing renewables for the future is also been presented.

  9. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  10. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  11. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seng Pei Liew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 σ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain g˜→gχ˜1,20→gZG˜′ becomes dominant, where χ˜1,20 and G˜′ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as mg˜∼1000 GeV, mχ˜1,20∼800 GeV and mG˜′∼600 GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  12. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  13. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  14. Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

    2016-06-22

    Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  16. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  17. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  18. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure

  19. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  20. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  1. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  2. Redesigning and Reframing Educational Scenarios for Minecraft Within Mother Tongue Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanghøj, Thorkild; Hautopp, Heidi; Jessen, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    to “survive” on a deserted island. The empirical data mainly consist of classroom observations collected and analysed using an ethnographically inspired approach to discourse analysis. The data analysis is based on theoretical perspectives on scenario‐based education, which assumes that the educational use...... of game scenarios can be understood as a dynamic interplay of different domains and knowledge practices. In this way, the educational use of The Mysterious Island is understood as socially negotiated translations between the knowledge practices of the Robinsonade‐based game scenario, the knowledge...

  3. Accretion-Ejection Instability and a "Magnetic Flood" scenario for GRS 1915+105

    CERN Document Server

    Tagger, M

    1999-01-01

    We present an instability, occurring in the inner region of magnetized accretion disks, which seems to be a good candidate to explain the low-frequency QPO observed in many X-ray binaries. We then briefly show how, in the remarkable case of the microquasar GRS 1915+105, identifying this QPO with our instability leads to a scenario for the $\\sim$ 30 mn cycles of this source. In this scenario the cycles are controlled by the build-up of magnetic flux in the disk.

  4. Sensitivity of alpha-particle-driven Alfven eigenmodes to q-profile variation in ITER scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Rodrigues, P; Fazendeiro, L; Ferreira, J; Coelho, R; Nabais, F; Borba, D; Polevoi, N F Loureiro A R; Pinches, S D; Sharapov, S E

    2016-01-01

    An hybrid ideal-MHD/drift-kinetic approach to assess the stability of alpha-particle-driven Alfven eigenmodes in burning plasmas is used to show that certain foreseen ITER scenarios, namely the $I_\\mathrm{p} = 15$ MA baseline scenario with very low and broad core magnetic shear, are sensitive to small changes in the background magnetic equilibrium. Slight perturbations (of the order of 1%) in the total plasma current are seen to cause large variations in the growth rate, toroidal mode number, and radial location of the most unstable eigenmodes found. The observed sensitivity is shown to proceed from the very low magnetic shear values attained throughout the plasma core.

  5. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  6. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

    2017-02-01

    This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067–82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method’s ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

  7. Scenario-based radiation therapy margins for patient setup, organ motion, and particle range uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokrantz, Rasmus; Fredriksson, Albin

    2017-02-21

    This work extends and validates the scenario-based generalization of margins presented in Fredriksson and Bokrantz (2016 Phys. Med. Biol. 61 2067-82). Scenario-based margins are, in their original form, a method for robust planning under setup uncertainty where the sum of a plan evaluation criterion over a set of scenarios is optimized. The voxelwise penalties in the summands are weighted by a distribution of coefficients defined such that the method is mathematically equivalent to the use of conventional geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. The purpose of this work is to extend scenario-based margins to general types of geometric uncertainty and to validate their use on clinical cases. Specifically, we outline how to incorporate density heterogeneity in the calculation of coefficients and demonstrate the extended method's ability to safeguard against setup errors, organ motion, and range shifts (and combinations thereof). For a water phantom with a high-density slab partly covering the target, the extended form of scenario-based margins method led to improved target coverage robustness compared to the original method. At most minor differences in robustness were, however, observed between the extended and original method for a prostate and two lung patients, all treated with intensity-modulated proton therapy, yielding evidence that the calculation of weighting coefficients is generally insensitive to tissue heterogeneities. The scenario-based margins were, furthermore, verified to provide a comparable level of robustness to expected value and worst case optimization while circumventing some known shortcomings of these methods.

  8. Modelling of hybrid scenario: from present-day experiments towards ITER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litaudon, X.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Artaud, J. F.; Belo, P.; Bizarro, João P. S.; Casper, T.; Citrin, J.; Fable, E.; Ferreira, J.; Garcia, J.; Garzotti, L.; Giruzzi, G.; Hobirk, J.; Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Imbeaux, F.; Joffrin, E.; Koechl, F.; Liu, F.; Lönnroth, J.; Moreau, D.; Parail, V.; Schneider, M.; Snyder, P. B.; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET-EFDA; the EU-ITM ITER Scenario Modelling Group

    2013-07-01

    The ‘hybrid’ scenario is an attractive operating scenario for ITER since it combines long plasma duration with the reliability of the reference H-mode regime. We review the recent European modelling effort carried out within the Integrated Scenario Modelling group which aims at (i) understanding the underlying physics of the hybrid regime in ASDEX-Upgrade and JET and (ii) extrapolating them towards ITER. JET and ASDEX-Upgrade hybrid scenarios performed under different experimental conditions have been simulated in an interpretative and predictive way in order to address the current profile dynamics and its link with core confinement, the relative importance of magnetic shear, s, and E × B flow shear on the core turbulence, pedestal stability and H-L transition. The correlation of the improved confinement with an increased s/q at outer radii observed in JET and ASDEX-Upgrade discharges is consistent with the predictions based on the GLF23 model applied in the simulations of the ion and electron kinetic profiles. Projections to ITER hybrid scenarios have been carried out focusing on optimization of the heating/current drive schemes to reach and ultimately control the desired plasma equilibrium using ITER actuators. Firstly, access condition to the hybrid-like q-profiles during the current ramp-up phase has been investigated. Secondly, from the interpreted role of the s/q ratio, ITER hybrid scenario flat-top performance has been optimized through tailoring the q-profile shape and pedestal conditions. EPED predictions of pedestal pressure and width have been used as constraints in the interpretative modelling while the core heat transport is predicted by GLF23. Finally, model-based approach for real-time control of advanced tokamak scenarios has been applied to ITER hybrid regime for simultaneous magnetic and kinetic profile control.

  9. Responses of urban heat island in Atlanta to different land-use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Peng; Weng, Qihao

    2017-06-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) effect changes heat and water cycles in urban areas, and has been accused of elevating energy consumption, deteriorating living environment, and increasing mortality rates. Understanding various UHI effects necessitates a systematic modeling approach. A major problem in UHI simulations is that urban areas were either considered to have only one category of land use/cover or outdated in land use/cover patterns due to the lack of high resolution data. Therefore, this study aims at integrating up-to-date remotely sensed land use/cover data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF/UCM)/Urban Canopy Model modeling systems to simulate surface temperature patterns in Atlanta, Georgia. In addition, three land-use scenarios, i.e., spontaneous scenario (SS), concentrated scenario (CS), and local policy scenario (LPS), were designed and incorporated into the modeling. Five numerical experiments were conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore the impact of urbanization-induced land-cover changes on temperature patterns. Land use and land-cover patterns under all three scenarios suggested that urban growth would continue through in-filling development and outward expansion. Compared to temperature simulations in 2011, temperature maps corresponding to the three urban growth scenarios showed warmer and cooler temperature patterns outside and inside the urban core, respectively. Analysis of the mean diurnal temperature cycle suggested that the highest temperature difference of 3.9 K was observed between 2011 and the LPS, and occurred around 22:00 local time. Overall, the simulations showed different UHI effects respond to the land-use scenarios in the summer. It is recommended for urban managers and policy makers to reflect on the potential impacts of alternative urban growth policies on thermal environment.

  10. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  11. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and pr...

  12. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  13. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  14. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  15. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  16. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  17. LIG1 polymorphisms: the Indian scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amit Kumar Mitra; Ashok Singh; Indian Genome Variation Consortium; Srikanta Kumar Rath

    2014-08-01

    Elucidation of the genetic diversity and relatedness of the subpopulations of India may provide a unique resource for future analysis of genetic association of several critical community-specific complex diseases.We performed a comprehensive exploration of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the gene DNA ligase 1 (LIG1) among a multiethnic panel of Indian subpopulations representative of the ethnic, linguistic and geographical diversity of India using a two-stage design involving DNA resequencing-based SNP discovery followed by SNP validation using sequenom-based genotyping. Thirty SNPs were identified in LIG1 gene using DNA resequencing including three promoter SNPs and one coding SNP. Following SNP validation, the SNPs rs20580/C19008A and rs3730862/C8804T were found to have the most widespread prevalence with noticeable variations in minor allele frequencies both between the Indian subpopulation groups and also from those reported on other major world populations. Subsequently, SNPs found in Indian subpopulations were analysed using bioinformatics-based approaches and compared with SNP data available on major world populations. Further, we also performed genotype–phenotype association analysis of LIG1 SNPs with publicly available data on LIG1 mRNA expression in HapMap samples. Results showed polymorphisms in LIG1 affect its expression and may therefore change its function. Our results stress upon the uniqueness of the Indian population with respect to the worldwide scenario and suggest that any epidemiological study undertaken on the global population should take this distinctiveness in consideration and avoid making generalized conclusions.

  18. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  19. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  20. Comprehensive Set of Misalignment Scenarios for the CMS Tracker

    CERN Document Server

    Lampen, Tapio; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schmidt, Alexander; Weber, Markus

    2008-01-01

    New misalignment scenarios are implemented for the CMS Tracker as a set of working hypotheses for simulation studies. Educated guesses of random misalignments are applied to various geometrical structures. $\\chi ^{2}$-invariant deformations are not simulated. The new scenarios are called as SurveyLASOnly, SurveyLASCosmics, $10\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$, $100\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ and $1000\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ scenarios, and they correspond approximately to the respective situation. Details of the scenarios and a list of possible future improvements are discussed. The impact on track reconstruction performance and Z mass reconstruction are also discussed.

  1. Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henrique M. Pereira; Paul W. Leadley; Vânia Proença; Rob Alkemade; Jörn P. W. Scharlemann; Juan F. Fernandez-Manjarrés; Miguel B. Araújo; Patricia Balvanera; Reinette Biggs; William W. L. Cheung; Louise Chini; H. David Cooper; Eric L. Gilman; Sylvie Guénette; George C. Hurtt; Henry P. Huntington; Georgina M. Mace; Thierry Oberdorff; Carmen Revenga; Patrícia Rodrigues; Robert J. Scholes; Ussif Rashid Sumaila; Matt Walpole

    2010-01-01

    .... We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts...

  2. The role of emotions for moral judgments depends on the type of emotion and moral scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugazio, Giuseppe; Lamm, Claus; Singer, Tania

    2012-06-01

    Emotions seem to play a critical role in moral judgment. However, the way in which emotions exert their influence on moral judgments is still poorly understood. This study proposes a novel theoretical approach suggesting that emotions influence moral judgments based on their motivational dimension. We tested the effects of two types of induced emotions with equal valence but with different motivational implications (anger and disgust), and four types of moral scenarios (disgust-related, impersonal, personal, and beliefs) on moral judgments. We hypothesized and found that approach motivation associated with anger would make moral judgments more permissible, while disgust, associated with withdrawal motivation, would make them less permissible. Moreover, these effects varied as a function of the type of scenario: the induced emotions only affected moral judgments concerning impersonal and personal scenarios, while we observed no effects for the other scenarios. These findings suggest that emotions can play an important role in moral judgment, but that their specific effects depend upon the type of emotion induced. Furthermore, induced emotion effects were more prevalent for moral decisions in personal and impersonal scenarios, possibly because these require the performance of an action rather than making an abstract judgment. We conclude that the effects of induced emotions on moral judgments can be predicted by taking their motivational dimension into account. This finding has important implications for moral psychology, as it points toward a previously overlooked mechanism linking emotions to moral judgments.

  3. Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise de Cuffa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

  4. Late decaying 2-component dark matter scenario as an explanation of the AMS-02 positron excess

    CERN Document Server

    Buch, Jatan; Rentala, Vikram

    2016-01-01

    The long standing anomaly in the positron flux as measured by the PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments could potentially be explained by dark matter annihilations. This scenario typically requires a large "boost factor" to be consistent with a thermal relic dark matter candidate produced via freeze-out. However, such an explanation has been considered to be disfavored by constraints from CMB observations on energy deposition during the recombination epoch. In this work, we construct a scenario for late-decaying two-component dark matter (LD2DM) with almost degenerate dark matter species. We show that such a scenario can explain the observed AMS-02 positron flux through an annihilation of the lighter dark matter species, while avoiding CMB constraints. The observed relic density can be correctly reproduced as well, with simple s-wave annihilation cross-sections. We demonstrate that the scenario is robust, subject to constraints from structure formation and CMB constraints on late-time energy depositions during the co...

  5. WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUBJECTED TO BIAS CORRECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mourato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961–1990 and scenario (2071–2100 periods. At southern Portu gal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temp eratures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct inpu t of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Dire ct Forcing and Hybrid are analysed and their performances in water availability impac t studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variab ility is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variabi lity, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff pro jections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff d ecrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shor tage that is already experienc ed. The overall annual reduction varies between –80% and –35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delt a Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between –80% and –5 2%.

  6. Relic Abundance in Secluded Dark Matter Scenario with Massive Mediator

    CERN Document Server

    Okawa, Shohei; Yamanaka, Masato

    2016-01-01

    The relic abundance of the dark matter (DM) particle $d$ is studied in a secluded DM scenario, in which the $d$ number decreasing process dominantly occurs not through the pair annihilation of $d$ into the standard model particles, but via the $dd \\to mm$ scattering process with a subsequently decaying mediator particle $m$. It is pointed out that the cosmologically observed relic abundance of DM can be accomplished even with a massive mediator having a mass $m_m$ non-negligibly heavy compared with the DM particle mass $m_d$. In the degenerated $d$-$m$ case ($m_d=m_m$), the DM relic abundance is realized by adjusting the $dd \\to mm$ scattering amplitude large enough and by choosing an appropriate mediator particle life-time. The DM evolution in the early universe exhibits characteristic "terrace" behavior, or two-step number density decreasing behavior, having a "fake" freeze-out at the first step. Based on these observations, a novel possibility of the DM model buildings is introduced in which the mediator p...

  7. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  8. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  9. MSSM Higgs Boson Searches at the LHC: Benchmark Scenarios after the Discovery of a Higgs-like Particle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Stål, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known mh-max scenario, and a modified scenario (mh-mod), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the MA-tan \\beta\\ plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h to \\gamma\\gamma\\ at large tan \\beta. We also suggest a \\tau-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the \\mu\\ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H to hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-MH scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  10. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  11. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Md Akram Hussain

    2013-01-01

    other major cancer programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR′B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  12. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  13. Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de Jilske Olda; Kok, Kasper; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine

    2017-01-01

    Literature critiques current predictive scenario approaches applied in the forest sector. Backcasting -a means to create normative scenarios- seems promising, but sparsely used. Combining backcasting with exploratory scenarios (combined scenario approach) seems appropriate to address these

  14. Emotion Categorisation of Body Expressions in Narrative Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina P. Volkova

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Humans can recognise emotions expressed through body motion with high accuracy even when the stimuli are impoverished. However, most of the research on body motion has relied on exaggerated displays of emotions. In this paper we present two experiments where we investigated whether emotional body expressions could be recognised when they were recorded during natural narration. Our actors were free to use their entire body, face and voice to express emotions, but our resulting visual stimuli used only the upper body motion trajectories in the form of animated stick figures. Observers were asked to perform an emotion recognition task on short motion sequences using a large and balanced set of emotions (amusement, joy, pride, relief, surprise, anger, disgust, fear, sadness, shame and neutral. Even with only upper body motion available, our results show recognition accuracy significantly above chance level and high consistency rates among observers. In our first experiment, that used more classic emotion induction setup, all emotions were well recognised. In the second study that employed narrations, four basic emotion categories (joy, anger, fear and sadness, three non-basic emotion categories (amusement, pride and shame and the neutral category were recognised above chance. Interestingly, especially in the second experiment, observers showed a bias towards anger when recognising the motion sequences for emotions. We discovered that similarities between motion sequences across the emotions along such properties as mean motion speed, number of peaks in the motion trajectory and mean motion span can explain a large percent of the variation in observers' responses. Overall, our results show that upper body motion is informative for emotion recognition in narrative scenarios.

  15. Singular vector decomposition for sensitivity analyses of tropospheric chemical scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goris, N.; Elbern, H.

    2011-06-01

    Observations of the chemical state of the atmosphere typically provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their insufficient temporal and spatial density. Therefore the measurement configurations need to be optimised to get a best possible state estimate. One possibility to optimise the state estimate is provided by observation targeting of sensitive system states, to identify measurement configurations of best value for forecast improvements. In recent years, numerical weather prediction adapted singular vector analysis with respect to initial values as a novel method to identify sensitive states. In the present work, this technique is transferred from meteorological to chemical forecast. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as controlling variables. More precisely uncertainties in the amplitude of the diurnal profile of emissions are analysed, yielding emission factors as target variables. Singular vector analysis is extended to allow for projected target variables not only at final time but also at initial time. Further, special operators are introduced, which consider the combined influence of groups of chemical species. As a preparation for targeted observation calculations, the concept of adaptive observations is studied with a chemistry box model. For a set of six different scenarios, the VOC versus NOx limitation of the ozone formation is investigated. Results reveal, that the singular vectors are strongly dependent on start time and length of the simulation. As expected, singular vectors with initial values as target variables tend to be more sensitive to initial values, while emission factors as target variables are more sensitive to simulation length. Further, the particular importance of chemical compounds differs strongly between absolute and relative error growth.

  16. Singular vector decomposition for sensitivity analyses of tropospheric chemical scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Goris

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Observations of the chemical state of the atmosphere typically provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their insufficient temporal and spatial density. Therefore the measurement configurations need to be optimised to get a best possible state estimate. One possibility to optimise the state estimate is provided by observation targeting of sensitive system states, to identify measurement configurations of best value for forecast improvements. In recent years, numerical weather prediction adapted singular vector analysis with respect to initial values as a novel method to identify sensitive states. In the present work, this technique is transferred from meteorological to chemical forecast. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as controlling variables. More precisely uncertainties in the amplitude of the diurnal profile of emissions are analysed, yielding emission factors as target variables. Singular vector analysis is extended to allow for projected target variables not only at final time but also at initial time. Further, special operators are introduced, which consider the combined influence of groups of chemical species.

    As a preparation for targeted observation calculations, the concept of adaptive observations is studied with a chemistry box model. For a set of six different scenarios, the VOC versus NOx limitation of the ozone formation is investigated. Results reveal, that the singular vectors are strongly dependent on start time and length of the simulation. As expected, singular vectors with initial values as target variables tend to be more sensitive to initial values, while emission factors as target variables are more sensitive to simulation length. Further, the particular importance of chemical compounds differs strongly between absolute and relative error growth.

  17. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  18. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  19. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  20. Safety restraint systems in heavy truck rollover scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaats, P.M.A.; Coo, P.J.A. de

    2003-01-01

    Safety restraint systems have been widely applied in the passenger car industry. The heavy truck industry has followed along, integrating the seat belts in the seat system. The effectiveness of seat belts, in particular in rollover scenarios, was studied for a number of heavy truck rollover scenario

  1. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinette Biggs

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.

  2. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.; Raudsepp-Hearne, C.; Atkinson-Palombo, C.; Bohensky, E.; Boyd, E.; Cundill, G.; Fox, H.; Ingram, S.; Kok, K.; Spehar, S.; Tengö, M.; Timmer, D.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experien

  3. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various

  4. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  5. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  6. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  7. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edeling, W.N., E-mail: W.N.Edeling@tudelft.nl [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands); Cinnella, P., E-mail: P.Cinnella@ensam.eu [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Dwight, R.P., E-mail: R.P.Dwight@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  8. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  9. Scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Khan; L. Miranda Sara; J. Sydenstricker-Neto; C. Sutherland; M. Hordijk

    2015-01-01

    Scenario building and related analysis is useful in several fields, ranging from military and business planning to its more recent applications in addressing global challenges such as climate change or economic crises. This chapter provides an overview of scenario building in urban governance. It in

  10. Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.; Deursen, van W.; Beek, van E.; Beersma, J.; Erdbrink, C.D.; Os, van A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current a

  11. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  12. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård;

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...

  13. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  14. Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

    This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

  15. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various exist

  16. An Approach to Scenario Analysis, Generation and Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Van Zuylen, H.J.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents an operation-oriented approach for traffic management scenario generation, analysis and evaluation. We start taking a few most applied scenarios from a traffic control centre, analysing each component and structure of the whole, and evaluating the impact of each component and s

  17. SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King-Clayton, L.M.; Chapman, N.A. [QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom); Kautsky, F. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Svensson, N.O. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology; Marsily, G. de [Univ. VI Paris (France); Ledoux, E. [Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)

    1995-12-01

    The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.

  18. A Sustainable Energy Scenario for the United States: Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessa Meyers

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a scenario depicting life in the United States in the year 2050. The scenario is designed to achieve energy sustainability: fossil fuels and corn ethanol have been replaced by other sustainable and inexhaustible energy sources. The scenario describes the disappearance of the suburbs, replaced by a mix of high density urban centers and low density eco-communities. A suite of advanced technologies and significant social changes underpin the scenario. Analysis of the energy implications inherent in the scenario suggest that total US energy consumption would be around 100 quads in 2050, approximately the same as in the year 2010 despite a forecasted population increase of 130 million.

  19. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  20. Wireless Sensor Networks: Performance Analysis in Indoor Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the performance of realistic wireless sensor networks in indoor scenarios. Most of the considered networks are formed by nodes using the Zigbee communication protocol. For comparison, we also analyze networks based on the proprietary standard Z-Wave. Two main groups of network scenarios are proposed: (i scenarios with direct transmissions between the remote nodes and the network coordinator, and (ii scenarios with routers, which relay the packets between the remote nodes and the coordinator. The sensor networks of interest are evaluated considering different performance metrics. In particular, we show how the received signal strength indication (RSSI behaves in the considered scenarios. Then, the network behavior is characterized in terms of end-to-end delay and throughput. In order to confirm the experiments, analytical and simulation results are also derived.

  1. Innovation Design of Persimmon Processing Equipment Driven by Future Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Xiao-fei; Su, Xiu-juan; Guan, Lei; Zhang, Wei-she

    2017-07-01

    This article aims to discuss the methods of innovative by future scenarios design, to help the designers be more effective of the design of persimmon processing machinery. By analyzing the persimmon traditional processing process, conceiving persimmon processing future scenarios and using the UXD and Morphological matrix, it can get the comprehensive function schemes. It Select the most optimal schemes which match the future scenarios best by illustrating the schematic design of the rotary-light Dried-persimmon Processing Machinery. It is feasible and effective to carry out the scenario design research and construct the reasonable future scenario, and combine the function analysis method to carry on the product plan innovation and the development.

  2. Characterising large scenario earthquakes and their influence on NDSHA maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magrin, Andrea; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2016-04-01

    The neo-deterministic approach to seismic zoning, NDSHA, relies on physically sound modelling of ground shaking from a large set of credible scenario earthquakes, which can be defined based on seismic history and seismotectonics, as well as incorporating information from a wide set of geological and geophysical data (e.g. morphostructural features and present day deformation processes identified by Earth observations). NDSHA is based on the calculation of complete synthetic seismograms; hence it does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. ground motion prediction equations). From the set of synthetic seismograms, maps of seismic hazard that describe the maximum of different ground shaking parameters at the bedrock can be produced. As a rule, the NDSHA, defines the hazard as the envelope ground shaking at the site, computed from all of the defined seismic sources; accordingly, the simplest outcome of this method is a map where the maximum of a given seismic parameter is associated to each site. In this way, the standard NDSHA maps permit to account for the largest observed or credible earthquake sources identified in the region in a quite straightforward manner. This study aims to assess the influence of unavoidable uncertainties in the characterisation of large scenario earthquakes on the NDSHA estimates. The treatment of uncertainties is performed by sensitivity analyses for key modelling parameters and accounts for the uncertainty in the prediction of fault radiation and in the use of Green's function for a given medium. Results from sensitivity analyses with respect to the definition of possible seismic sources are discussed. A key parameter is the magnitude of seismic sources used in the simulation, which is based on information from earthquake catalogue, seismogenic zones and seismogenic nodes. The largest part of the existing Italian catalogues is based on macroseismic intensities, a rough estimate of the error in peak values of ground motion can

  3. Impacts of climate change scenarios on runoff regimes in the southern Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Barontini

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change scenarios on the runoff regime in the Italian Alpine area was investigated. A preliminary analysis of the output of three Global Circulation Models (PCM, HADCM, ECHAM was needed to select IPCC-based scenarios for the 2000–2099 period. Two basins, 1840 and 236 km2 in size, respectively, and with different glaciated areas and storage capacity of reservoirs were selected as case studies. The PCM model, the one capable to better reproduce the observed rainfall regime in the investigated area, with the IPCC SRES A2 scenario was adopted for the meteorological forcing. On average for the two basins, an increase of annual precipitation of about 3% is expected for the 2050 scenario and should not significantly vary at the end of this century compared to present conditions. At the same time temperature should increase of 1.1°C in 2050 and 2.4°C for 2090. Because of the coarse resolution of the climate models' output, the statistics of the simulated rainy days and daily precipitation were adapted to the scale of the two selected basins using a modified version of the multiplicative cascade β-model, proposed in the literature to explain the statistics of intermittent fully developed turbulence. As regards to land cover, glaciated areas are decreased, in the future scenarios, according to the Kuhn's concept of equilibrium line adaptation to climate fluctuations. The tree-line altitude is increased, according to the observed trend since the end of the Little Ice Age: thus boundary conditions for evapotranspiration changed. The resulting meteorological variables and hydrological parameters were used to run the WATFLOOD hydrological model in order to assess the changes of runoff regimes in the two watersheds. A decrease of about 7% of annual runoff volume for the 2050 scenario and of 13% for the 2090 scenario was estimated, on average, at the outlet of the Oglio river basin, the largest one. In

  4. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  5. Binary interactions as a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Dengkai; Li, Lifang

    2014-01-01

    Observations revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs) that exhibit wide abundance variations and multiple sequences in Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We present a scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs. In this scenario, initial GCs are single-generation clusters, and our model predicts that the abundance anomalous stars observed in GCs are the merged stars and the accretor stars produced by binary interactions, which are rapidly rotating stars at the moment of their formation and are more massive than normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. We find that due to their own evolution, these rapidly rotating stars have different surface abundances, effective temperatures and luminosities from normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. The stellar population with binaries can reproduce two important observational evidences of multiple stellar populations, the Na-O anticorrelation and the multiple sequences in HR diagram. Thi...

  6. Sparticles in Motion - getting to the line in compressed scenarios with the Recursive Jigsaw Reconstruction

    CERN Document Server

    Jackson, Paul; Santoni, Marco

    2016-01-01

    The observation of light super-partners from a supersymmetric extension to the Standard Model is an intensely sought-after experimental outcome, providing an explanation for the stabilization of the electroweak scale and indicating the existence of new particles which could be consistent with dark matter phenomenology. For compressed scenarios, where sparticle spectra mass-splittings are small and decay products carry low momenta, dedicated techniques are required in all searches for supersymmetry. In this paper we suggest an approach for these analyses based on the concept of Recursive Jigsaw Reconstruction, decomposing each event into a basis of complementary observables, for cases where strong initial state radiation has sufficient transverse momentum to elicit the recoil of any final state sparticles. We introduce a collection of kinematic observables which can be used to probe compressed scenarios, in particular exploiting the correlation between missing momentum and that of radiative jets. As an example...

  7. European scenarios for exposure of soil organisms to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Egsmose, Mark; Gardi, Ciro; Klein, Michael; Vanderborght, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Standardised exposure scenarios play an important role in European pesticide authorisation procedures (a scenario is a combination of climate, weather and crop data to be used in exposure models). The European Food Safety Authority developed such scenarios for the assessment of exposure of soil organisms to pesticides. Scenarios were needed for both the concentration in total soil and for the concentration in the liquid phase. The goal of the exposure assessment is the 90th percentile of the exposure concentration in the area of agricultural use of a pesticide in each of three regulatory European zones (North, Centre and South). A statistical approach was adopted to find scenarios that are consistent with this exposure goal. Scenario development began with the simulation of the concentration distribution in the entire area of use by means of a simple analytical model. In the subsequent two steps, procedures were applied to account for parameter uncertainty and scenario uncertainty (i.e. the likelihood that a scenario that is derived for one pesticide is not conservative enough for another pesticide). In the final step, the six scenarios were selected by defining their average air temperature, soil organic-matter content and their soil textural class. Organic matter of the selected scenarios decreased in the order North-Centre-South. Because organic matter has a different effect on the concentration in total soil than it has on the concentration in the liquid phase, the concentration in total soil decreased in the order North-Centre-South whereas the concentration in the liquid phase decreased in the opposite order. The concentration differences between the three regulatory zones appeared to be no more than a factor of two. These differences were comparatively small in view of the considerable differences in climate and soil properties between the three zones.

  8. Developing climate change scenarios for Tamil Nadu, India using MAGICC/SCENGEN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeganathan, Anushiya; Andimuthu, Ramachandran

    2013-11-01

    This paper describes the projection of climate change scenarios under increased greenhouse gas emissions, using the results of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 dataset. A score is given to every model based on global and regional performance. Four out of 20 general circulation models (GCMs) were selected based on skill in predicting observed annual temperature and precipitation conditions. The ensemble of these four models shows superiority over the individual model scores. These models were subjected to increases in future anthropogenic radiative forcings for constructing climate change scenarios. Future climate scenarios for Tamil Nadu were developed with MAGICC/SCENGEN software. Model results show both temperature and precipitation increases under increased greenhouse gas scenarios. Northeast and northwest parts of Tamil Nadu show a greater increase in temperature and precipitation. Seasonally, the maximum rise in temperature occurred during the MAM season, followed by DJF, JJA, and SON. Decreasing trends of precipitation were observed during DJF and MAM.

  9. Numerical GPR Imaging through Directional Antenna Systems in Complex Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comite, Davide; Murgia, Federica; Barbara, Martina; Catapano, Ilaria; Soldovieri, Francesco; Galli, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    The capability of imaging hidden targets and interfaces in non-accessible and complex scenarios is a topic of increasing interest for several practical applications, such as civil engineering, geophysics, and planetary explorations [1]. In this frame, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) has been proven as an efficient and reliable technique, also thanks to the development of effective imaging procedures based on linear modeling of the scattering phenomenon, which is usually considered as activated by ideal sources [1],[2]. Actually, such modeling simplifications are rarely verified in typical operative scenarios, when a number of heterogeneous targets can interact each other and with the surrounding environment, producing undesired contributions such as clutter and ghosts targets. From a physical viewpoint, these phenomena are mainly due to multipath contributions at the receiving antenna system, and different solutions have been proposed to mitigate these effects on the final image reconstruction (see, e.g., [2] and references therein). In this work we investigate on the possible improvements achievable when the directional features of the transmitting antenna system are taken into account in the imaging algorithm. Following and extending the recent investigations illustrated in [2] and [3], we consider in particular arrays of antennas, made by arbitrary types of elements, as activating the scattering phenomenon: hence, the effects of neglecting or accounting for the inherent directional radiation of the considered array are investigated as regards the accuracy of the final reconstruction of targets. Taking into account the resolution losses linked to the relevant synthetic aperture, we analyze the possibility of improving the quality of imaging, mitigating the presence of spurious contributions. By implementing a 'synthetic setup' that analyzes the scenarios under test through different electromagnetic CAD tools (mainly CST Microwave Studio and gprMax), it has been

  10. The Interactive Scenario Scanner (ISS): a Tool to Suppport the Dialogue between Science and Policy on Scenario Development; Version 1

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk MM; Janssen MA; MNV

    1997-01-01

    Om lange termijn beleidsopties voor voor klimaatverandering te verkennen is er behoefte aan de ontwikkeling en evaluatie van lange termijn emissie scenario's. Om beleidsrelevant te zijn moet bij de scenario's een onderscheid gemaakt worden tussen wereldregio's op basis van hun ont

  11. Properties of Disk Galaxies in a Hierarchical Formation Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Firmani, Claudio

    2000-04-01

    We used galaxy evolutionary models in a hierarchical inside-out disk formation scenario to study the origin of the main local and global properties of disk galaxies as well as their correlations. We found that most of these properties and correlations are the result of three (cosmological) initial factors and their dispersions: the virial mass, the halo mass aggregation history (MAH), and the angular momentum given through the spin parameter lambda. The MAH determines mainly the halo structure and the integral color indexes while Lambda determines mainly the surface brightness and the bulge-to-disk ratio. We calculated star formation (SF) using a gravitational instability criterion and a self-regulation mechanism in the disk turbulent ISM. The efficiency of SF in this model is almost independent from the mass. We show that the luminosity- dependent dust absorption empirically determined by Wang & Heckman explains the observed color-magnitude and color Tully-Fisher (TF) relations without the necessity of introducing a mass-dependent SF efficiency. The disks in centrifugal equilibrium form within growing cold dark matter halos with a gas accretion rate proportional to the rate of the MAH. The disks present exponential surface density and brightness profiles, negative radial color index gradients, and nearly flat rotation curves. We also calculated the secular formation of a bulge due to gravitational instabilities in the stellar disk. The intensive properties of our models agree with the observational data and the trends of the Hubble sequence are reproduced. The predicted infrared TF and luminosity-radius relations also agree with observations. The main shortcomings of our inside-out hierarchical models are the excessive radial color gradients and the dark halo dominion in the rotation curve decompositions.

  12. Epidemiological and Economic Evaluation of Alternative On-Farm Management Scenarios for Ovine Footrot in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Zingg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Footrot is a multifactorial infectious disease mostly affecting sheep, caused by the bacteria Dichelobacter nodosus. It causes painful feet lesions resulting in animal welfare issues, weight loss, and reduced wool production, which leads to a considerable economic burden in animal production. In Switzerland, the disease is endemic and mandatory coordinated control programs exist only in some parts of the country. This study aimed to compare two nationwide control strategies and a no intervention scenario with the current situation, and to quantify their net economic effect. This was done by sequential application of a maximum entropy model (MEM, epidemiological simulation, and calculation of net economic effect using the net present value method. Building upon data from a questionnaire, the MEM revealed a nationwide footrot prevalence of 40.2%. Regional prevalence values were used as inputs for the epidemiological model. Under the application of the nationwide coordinated control program without (scenario B and with (scenario C improved diagnostics [polymerase chain reaction (PCR test], the Swiss-wide prevalence decreased within 10 years to 14 and 5%, respectively. Contrary, an increase to 48% prevalence was observed when terminating the current control strategies (scenario D. Management costs included labor and material costs. Management benefits included reduction of fattening time and improved animal welfare, which is valued by Swiss consumers and therefore reduces societal costs. The net economic effect of the alternative scenarios B and C was positive, the one of scenario D was negative and over a period of 17 years quantified at CHF 422.3, 538.3, and −172.3 million (1 CHF = 1.040 US$, respectively. This implies that a systematic Swiss-wide management program under the application of the PCR diagnostic test is the most recommendable strategy for a cost-effective control of footrot in Switzerland.

  13. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  14. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    In geosciences, as well as in astrophysics, direct observations of a studied physical system and objects are not always accessible. Instead, indirect observations have to be used in order to obtain information about the unknown system, which leads to an inverse problem. Such geoscientific inverse...... to this problem, which leads to a smooth solution with no geological realism. Moreover, such a optimization-based framework does not allow introducing realistic geological prior information (due to a vectorial normed space structure). This thesis focuses on a more sophisticated approach based on a probabilistic...... problem, which may considerably reduce the computationally cost related to such problems. Moreover, the probabilistic formulation of the inverse problem allows the use of geologically more realistic prior information that leads to solutions to the inverse problem with a higher degree of geological realism...

  15. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO{sub 2} reduction in the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Kevin L. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Mander, Sarah L. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)], E-mail: s.mander@manchester.ac.uk; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Agnolucci, Paolo [Policy Studies Institute, London (United Kingdom); Ekins, Paul [Kings College, London (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO{sub 2} emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO{sub 2} emissions is achievable, even when all CO{sub 2} sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.

  16. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios. Part 2. Scenarios for a 60% CO{sub 2} reduction in the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Kevin L.; Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Shackley, Simon [The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Agnolucci, Paolo [The Policy Studies Institute, London (United Kingdom); Ekins, Paul [Kings College, London (United Kingdom)

    2008-10-15

    This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO{sub 2} emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO{sub 2} emissions is achievable, even when all CO{sub 2} sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria. (author)

  17. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  18. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jerome; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, James A.; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  19. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1.

  20. Soil Tillage Systems and Wheat Yield under Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieranna Servadio

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the effects of three different main preparatory tillage operations: ploughing at 0.4 m (P40 and 0.20 m (P20 depth and harrowing at 0.20 m depth (MT were investigated. The tillage operations were carried out at two different times, as the soil water content increased over time from rainfall: (low, 58% (LH and high, 80% (HH of field capacity. Results obtained from the soil monitoring carried out before and after tillage showed high values of soil strength in terms of Penetration resistance and shear strength particularly in deeper soil layers at lower water content. During tillage, fossil-fuel energy requirements for P40 LH and P20 LH were 25% and 35% higher, respectively, with respect to the HH treatments and tractor slip was very high (P40 LH = 32.4% with respect to the P40 HH treatment (16%. Soil water content significantly influenced tractor performance during soil ploughing at 0.40 m depth but no effect was observed for the MT treatment. The highly significant linear relations between grain yield and soil penetration resistance highlight how soil strength may be good indicator of soil productivity. We conclude that ploughing soil to a 0.20 m depth or harrowing soil to a 0.20 m depth is suitable for this type of soil under climate change scenarios.

  1. Vehicle tracking and classification in challenging scenarios via slice sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nieto, Marcos; Unzueta, Luis; Barandiaran, Javier; Cortés, Andoni; Otaegui, Oihana; Sánchez, Pedro

    2011-12-01

    This article introduces a 3D vehicle tracking system in a traffic surveillance environment devised for shadow tolling applications. It has been specially designed to operate in real time with high correct detection and classification rates. The system is capable of providing accurate and robust results in challenging road scenarios, with rain, traffic jams, casted shadows in sunny days at sunrise and sunset times, etc. A Bayesian inference method has been designed to generate estimates of multiple variable objects entering and exiting the scene. This framework allows easily mixing different nature information, gathering in a single step observation models, calibration, motion priors and interaction models. The inference of results is carried out with a novel optimization procedure that generates estimates of the maxima of the posterior distribution combining concepts from Gibbs and slice sampling. Experimental tests have shown excellent results for traffic-flow video surveillance applications that can be used to classify vehicles according to their length, width, and height. Therefore, this vision-based system can be seen as a good substitute to existing inductive loop detectors.

  2. The sparkling Universe: a scenario for cosmic void motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccarelli, Laura; Ruiz, Andrés N.; Lares, Marcelo; Paz, Dante J.; Maldonado, Victoria E.; Luparello, Heliana E.; Garcia Lambas, Diego

    2016-10-01

    Cosmic voids are prominent features of the Universe, encoding relevant information of the growth and evolution of structure through their dynamics. Here, we perform a statistical study of the global motion of cosmic voids using both a numerical simulation and observational data. Their relation to large-scale mass flows and the physical effects that drive those motions. We analyse the bulk motions of voids, finding void mean bulk velocities in the range 300-400 km s-1, depending on void size and the large-scale environment. Statistically, small voids move faster, and voids in relatively higher density environments have higher bulk velocities. Also, we find large-scale overdensities (underdensities) along (opposite to) the void motion direction, suggesting that void motions respond to a pull-push mechanism. Our analysis suggests that their relative motions are generated by large-scale density fluctuations. In agreement with linear theory, voids embedded in low (high) density regions mutually recede (attract) each other, providing the general mechanism to understand the bimodal behaviour of void motions. We have also inferred void motions in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey using linear theory, finding that their estimated motions are in qualitatively agreement with the results of the simulation. Our results suggest a scenario of galaxies and galaxy systems flowing away from void centres with the additional, and more relevant, contribution of the void bulk motion to the total velocity.

  3. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Hebecker, Arthur; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T

    2014-01-01

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation ($\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of $\\Delta N_{\\rm eff}$. It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields. The latter decay channel avoids the most stringent constraints of the sequestered setting. Nevertheless, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small "by accident" as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised ...

  4. Z-Burst Scenario for the Highest Energy Cosmic Rays

    CERN Document Server

    Fodor, Z; Ringwald, Andreas

    2002-01-01

    The origin of highest energy cosmic rays is yet unknown. An appealing possibility is the so-called Z-burst scenario, in which a large fraction of these cosmic rays are decay products of Z bosons produced in the scattering of ultrahigh energy neutrinos on cosmological relic neutrinos. The comparison between the observed and predicted spectra constrains the mass of the heaviest neutrino. The required neutrino mass is fairly robust against variations of the presently unknown quantities, such as the amount of relic neutrino clustering, the universal photon radio background and the extragalactic magnetic field. Considering different possibilities for the ordinary cosmic rays the required neutrino masses are determined. In the most plausible case that the ordinary cosmic rays are of extragalactic origin and the universal radio background is strong enough to suppress high energy photons, the required neutrino mass is 0.08 eV < m_nu < 0.40 eV. The required ultrahigh energy neutrino flux should be detected in th...

  5. Null Geodesics in Brane World Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Li-Feng; ZHANG Yuan-Zhong

    2004-01-01

    We study the null bulk geodesic motion in the brane world in which the bulk metric has an un-stabilized extra spatial dimension. We find that the null bulk geodesic motion as observed on the 3-brane with Z2 symmetry would be a timelike geodesic motion even though there exists an extra non-gravitational force in contrast with the case of the stabilized extra spatial dimension. In other words the presence of the extra non-gravitational force would not violate thc Z2 symmetry.

  6. Quantum gravity extension of the inflationary scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agullo, Ivan; Ashtekar, Abhay; Nelson, William

    2012-12-21

    Since the standard inflationary paradigm is based on quantum field theory on classical space-times, it excludes the Planck era. Using techniques from loop quantum gravity, the paradigm is extended to a self-consistent theory from the Planck scale to the onset of slow roll inflation, covering some 11 orders of magnitude in energy density and curvature. This preinflationary dynamics also opens a small window for novel effects, e.g., a source for non-Gaussianities, which could extend the reach of cosmological observations to the deep Planck regime of the early Universe.

  7. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  8. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    of a policyholder as active and disabled, respectively, are low at the same time, and (c) mortality intensities of the policyholders in a portfolio are low at the same time. The set from which the worst-case scenario is taken reflects the dependence structure and allows us to relate the worst-case scenario...... and the techniques are non-standard in control theory, exactly because our worst-case scenario is deterministic and not adapted to the stochastic development of the portfolio. The formalistic results are exemplified in a series of numerical studies....

  9. Primordial Gravitational Waves Induced by Magnetic Fields in Ekpyrotic Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Asuka

    2016-01-01

    Both inflationary and ekpyrotic scenarios can account for the origin of the large scale structure of the universe. It is often said that detecting primordial gravitational waves is the key to distinguish both scenarios. We show that this is not true if the gauge kinetic function is present in the ekpyrotic scenario. In fact, primordial gravitational waves sourced by the gauge field can be produced in an ekpyrotic universe. We also study scalar fluctuations sourced by the gauge field and show that it is negligible compared to primordial gravitational waves. This comes from the fact that the fast roll condition holds in ekpyrotic models.

  10. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-15

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www

  11. Full steady state LH scenarios in Tore Supra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazarian-Vibert, F.; Litaudon, X.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d`Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee

    1995-12-31

    Lower Hybrid discharge have been realised in Tore Supra using feed-back control of the primary circuit voltage such that the loop voltage was maintained exactly to zero near the plasma surface. This new scenario allows the plasma current to float and quickly reach an equilibrium value determined by the current drive efficiency and Lower Hybrid power. Recent experimental results show that, with the new constant flux scenario the coupled plasma and primary currents reach a steady state in less than 10 s which is a good agreement with theoretical expectations. A complete analysis of this scenario is presented. (authors). 8 refs., 3 figs.

  12. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  13. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  14. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    , which perhaps explains the increasing popularity of scenario analysis in business and other organizations. An institutionalised usage of scenario planning can shape a company's ability to act rather than to react in a volatile environment. Emerging weak signals (i.e. indicators of change) can...... be intercepted at a much earlier point in time. Decoding weak signals can prevent sudden emergency situations to occur or it can turn into unexpected opportunities ready to be taken advantage of ahead of compe-titors (Schoemaker, 1995). However, a scenario is not an end in itself. Only when it is used to help...

  15. Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ruiz, José M.; López-Moreno, J. Ignacio; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Lasanta–Martínez, Teodoro; Beguería, Santiago

    2011-04-01

    Mediterranean areas of both southern Europe and North Africa are subject to dramatic changes that will affect the sustainability, quantity, quality, and management of water resources. Most climate models forecast an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation at the end of the 21st century. This will enhance stress on natural forests and shrubs, and will result in more water consumption, evapotranspiration, and probably interception, which will affect the surface water balance and the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater flow. As a consequence, soil water content will decline, saturation conditions will be increasingly rare and restricted to periods in winter and spring, and snow accumulation and melting will change, especially in the mid-mountain areas. Future land management will be characterized by forest and shrub expansion in most Mediterranean mountain areas, as a consequence of farmland and grazing abandonment, with increasing human pressure localized only in some places (ski resort and urbanized of valley floors). In the lowlands, particularly in the coastal fringe, increasing water demand will occur as a consequence of expansion of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas, and tourist resorts. Future scenarios for water resources in the Mediterranean region suggest (1) a progressive decline in the average streamflow (already observed in many rivers since the 1980s), including a decline in the frequency and magnitude of the most frequent floods due to the expansion of forests; (2) changes in important river regime characteristics, including an earlier decline in high flows from snowmelt in spring, an intensification of low flows in summer, and more irregular discharges in winter; (3) changes in reservoir inputs and management, including lower available discharges from dams to meet the water demand from irrigated and urban areas. Most reservoirs in mountain areas will be

  16. A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faqih, A.

    2017-03-01

    Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

  17. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  18. Runaway Massive Binaries and Cluster Ejection Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    McSwain, M V; Boyajian, T S; Grundstrom, E D; Roberts, M S E; Ransom, Scott M.; Boyajian, Tabetha S.; Grundstrom, Erika D.

    2006-01-01

    The production of runaway massive binaries offers key insights into the evolution of close binary stars and open clusters. The stars HD 14633 and HD 15137 are rare examples of such runaway systems, and in this work we investigate the mechanism by which they were ejected from their parent open cluster, NGC 654. We discuss observational characteristics that can be used to distinguish supernova ejected systems from those ejected by dynamical interactions, and we present the results of a new radio pulsar search of these systems as well as estimates of their predicted X-ray flux assuming that each binary contains a compact object. Since neither pulsars nor X-ray emission are observed in these systems, we cannot conclude that these binaries contain compact companions. We also consider whether they may have been ejected by dynamical interactions in the dense environment where they formed, and our simulations of four-body interactions suggest that a dynamical origin is possible but unlikely. We recommend further X-ra...

  19. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Semenov, Mikhail A; Nishimori, Motoki; Ishigooka, Yasushi; Kuwagata, Tsuneo

    2012-03-13

    We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981-2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile-quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081-2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.

  20. Broadband Ground Motion Estimates for Scenario Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, R. W.

    2006-12-01

    Using broadband (0-10 Hz) simulation procedures, we are assessing the ground motions that could be generated by different earthquake scenarios occurring on major strike-slip faults of the San Francisco Bay region. These simulations explicitly account for several important ground motion features, including rupture directivity, 3D basin response, and the depletion of high frequency ground motions that occurs for surface rupturing events. This work compliments ongoing USGS efforts to quantify the ground shaking hazards throughout the San Francisco Bay region. These efforts involve development and testing of a 3D velocity model for northern California (USGS Bay Area Velocity Model, version 05.1.0) using observations from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, characterization of 1906 rupture scenarios and ground motions, and the development and analysis of rupture scenarios on other Bay Area faults. The adequacy of the simulation model has been tested using ground motion data recorded during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and by comparison with the reported intensity data from the 1906 earthquake. Comparisons of the simulated broadband (0-10 Hz) ground motions with the recorded motions for the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrate that the modeling procedure matches the observations without significant bias over a broad range of frequencies, site types, and propagation distances. The Loma Prieta rupture model is based on a wavenumber-squared refinement of the Wald et al (1991) slip distribution, with the rupture velocity set at 75 percent of the local shear wave velocity and a Kostrov-type slip function having a rise time of about 1.4 sec. Simulations of 1906 scenario ruptures indicate very strong directivity effects to the north and south of the assumed epicenter, adjacent to San Francisco. We are currently analyzing additional earthquake scenarios on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek and San Andreas faults in order to provide a more comprehensive framework for assessing