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Sample records for video-based prediction assessments

  1. Video-based eye tracking for neuropsychiatric assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Sam; Stark, David E

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a video-based eye-tracking method, ideally deployed via a mobile device or laptop-based webcam, as a tool for measuring brain function. Eye movements and pupillary motility are tightly regulated by brain circuits, are subtly perturbed by many disease states, and are measurable using video-based methods. Quantitative measurement of eye movement by readily available webcams may enable early detection and diagnosis, as well as remote/serial monitoring, of neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. We successfully extracted computational and semantic features for 14 testing sessions, comprising 42 individual video blocks and approximately 17,000 image frames generated across several days of testing. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of collecting video-based eye-tracking data from a standard webcam in order to assess psychomotor function. Furthermore, we were able to demonstrate through systematic analysis of this data set that eye-tracking features (in particular, radial and tangential variance on a circular visual-tracking paradigm) predict performance on well-validated psychomotor tests. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Direct Observation vs. Video-Based Assessment in Flexible Cystoscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dagnaes-Hansen, Julia; Mahmood, Oria; Bube, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Direct observation in assessment of clinical skills is prone to bias, demands the observer to be present at a certain location at a specific time, and is time-consuming. Video-based assessment could remove the risk of bias, increase flexibility, and reduce the time spent on assessment....... This study investigated if video-based assessment was a reliable tool for cystoscopy and if direct observers were prone to bias compared with video-raters. DESIGN: This study was a blinded observational trial. Twenty medical students and 9 urologists were recorded during 2 cystoscopies and rated by a direct...... observer and subsequently by 2 blinded video-raters on a global rating scale (GRS) for cystoscopy. Both intrarater and interrater reliability were explored. Furthermore, direct observer bias was explored by a paired samples t-test. RESULTS: Intrarater reliability calculated by Pearson's r was 0...

  3. Assessing Perceptions of Interpersonal Behavior with a Video-Based Situational Judgment Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubovich, Juliya; Seybert, Jacob; Martin-Raugh, Michelle; Naemi, Bobby; Vega, Ronald P.; Roberts, Richard D.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate appraisal of others' behavior is critical for the production of skilled interpersonal behavior. We used an ecologically valid methodology, a video-based situational judgment test with true-false items, to assess the accuracy with which students (N = 947) perceive the interpersonal behavior of actors involved in workplace situations.…

  4. Video-based self-assessment: implementation and evaluation in an undergraduate nursing course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, M S; Son, Y J; Kim, Y S; Park, J H

    2009-08-01

    This research was performed to investigate the effects of video-based self-assessment on the ability of nursing students to accurately measure vital signs, their communication skills, and their satisfaction. This research was conducted between March 2007 and June 2007 as a quasi-experimental control-group, pretest-posttest design. The study population was composed of 40 second-year student nurses who enrolled in a fundamentals of nursing course of a college of nursing, Ajou University in Korea. Results of the research indicate that there was a statistically significant difference in exam scores for assessing long-term memory video-review group demonstrating higher scores. Student satisfaction was also significantly higher in the video-review group than in the control group. These results may suggest video-based self-assessment is a beneficial and effective instructional method of training undergraduate nursing students to develop awareness of their strengths and weaknesses, and to improve their clinical and communication skills.

  5. Measuring classroom management expertise (CME of teachers: A video-based assessment approach and statistical results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes König

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The study aims at developing and exploring a novel video-based assessment that captures classroom management expertise (CME of teachers and for which statistical results are provided. CME measurement is conceptualized by using four video clips that refer to typical classroom management situations in which teachers are heavily challenged (involving the challenges to manage transitions, instructional time, student behavior, and instructional feedback and by applying three cognitive demands posed on respondents when responding to test items related to the video clips (accuracy of perception, holistic perception, and justification of action. Research questions are raised regarding reliability, testlet effects (related to the four video clips applied for measurement, intercorrelations of cognitive demands, and criterion-related validity of the instrument. Evidence is provided that (1 using a video-based assessment CME can be measured in a reliable way, (2 the CME total score represents a general ability that is only slightly influenced by testlet effects related to the four video clips, (3 the three cognitive demands conceptualized for the measurement of CME are highly intercorrelated, and (4 the CME measure is positively correlated with declarative-conceptual general pedagogical knowledge (medium effect size, whereas it shows only small size correlations with non-cognitive teacher variables.

  6. Toward feasible, valid, and reliable video-based assessments of technical surgical skills in the operating room

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, R.; Grantcharov, T.; Moorthy, K.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To determine the feasibility, validity, inter-rater, and intertest reliability of 4 previously published video-based rating scales, for technical skills assessment on a benchmark laparoscopic procedure. Summary Background Data: Assessment of technical skills is crucial to the demonstra......Objective: To determine the feasibility, validity, inter-rater, and intertest reliability of 4 previously published video-based rating scales, for technical skills assessment on a benchmark laparoscopic procedure. Summary Background Data: Assessment of technical skills is crucial...... patients within 2 Academic Surgical Departments. All patients had a diagnosis of biliary colic. Surgical technical skills were rated posthoc in a blinded manner by 2 experienced observers on 4 video-based rating scales. The different scales used had been developed to assess generic or procedure...

  7. Physician assessment and management of complex colon polyps: a multicenter video-based survey study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz Aadam, A; Wani, Sachin; Kahi, Charles; Kaltenbach, Tonya; Oh, Young; Edmundowicz, Steven; Peng, Jie; Rademaker, Alfred; Patel, Swati; Kushnir, Vladimir; Venu, Mukund; Soetikno, Roy; Keswani, Rajesh N

    2014-09-01

    The management of complex colorectal polyps varies in practice. Accurate descriptions of the endoscopic appearance by using a standardized classification system (Paris classification) and size for complex colon polyps may guide subsequent providers regarding curative endoscopic resection vs. need for surgery. The accuracy of this assessment is not well defined. Furthermore, the factors associated with decisions for endoscopic vs. surgical management are unclear. To characterize the accuracy of physician assessment of polyp morphology, size, and suspicion for malignancy among physician subspecialists performing colonoscopy and colon surgery. In addition, we aimed to assess the influence of these polyp characteristics as well as physician type and patient demographics on recommendations for endoscopic vs. surgical resection of complex colorectal polyps. An online video-based survey was sent to gastroenterologists (GIs) and gastrointestinal surgeons affiliated with six tertiary academic centers. The survey consisted of high-definition video clips (30-60 s) of six complex colorectal polyps (one malignant) and clinical histories. Respondents were blinded to histology. Respondents were queried regarding polyp characteristics, suspicion for malignancy, and recommendations for resection. The survey response rate was 154/317 (49%). Seventy-eight percent of respondents were attending physicians (91 GIs and 29 surgeons) and 22% were GI trainees. Sixteen percent of respondents self-identified as specialists in complex polypectomy. Accurate estimation of polyp size was poor (28.4%) with moderate interobserver agreement (k=0.52). Accuracy for Paris classification was 47.5%, also with moderate interobserver agreement (k=0.48). Specialists in complex polypectomy were most accurate, whereas surgeons were the least accurate in assigning Paris classification (66.0 vs. 28.7%, Ppolyp morphology (polypoid vs. nonpolypoid), polyp location (right vs. left colon), or patient ASA class. In

  8. Can a video-based hazard perception test used for driver licensing predict crash involvement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horswill, Mark S; Hill, Andrew; Wetton, Mark

    2015-09-01

    In 2008, the state of Queensland in Australia introduced a video-based hazard perception test as part of the licensing process for new drivers. A key validity check for such a test is whether scores are associated with crash involvement. We present data demonstrating that drivers who failed the hazard perception test (based on a ROC curve-derived pass mark) were 25% [95% confidence interval (CI) 6%, 48%] more likely to be involved in an active crash (defined as a crash occurring while the driver's vehicle was moving but they were not engaged in parking or reversing) during a one year period following the test (controlling for driving exposure, age, and sex). Failing drivers were also 17% (95% CI 6%, 29%) more likely to have been involved in active crashes prior to the test, in the period since obtaining their provisional license. These data support the proposal that the hazard perception test is a valid measure of crash-related driving performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Recommendations to enhance constructivist-based learning in Interprofessional Education using video-based self-assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahmen, Uta; Schulze, Christine; Schindler, Claudia; Wick, Katharina; Schwartze, Dominique; Veit, Andrea; Smolenski, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Interprofessional collaboration is crucial to the optimization of patient care. This paper aims to provide recommendations for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with the core element of video-based self-assessment. A course for students in medicine, physiotherapy, and nursing was developed through interprofessional, cross-institutional collaboration. The course consisted of drawing on prior knowledge about the work done by each professional group in regard to a specific clinical scenario and an interprofessional treatment situation, filming a role play of this treatment situation, and a structured self-assessment of the role play. We evaluated the preparation and implementation of the three courses conducted thus far. Concrete recommendations for implementation were made based on evaluation sheets (students), open discussions (tutors, instructors, institutions) and recorded meeting minutes (project managers, project participants). Basic recommendations for implementation include: selecting appropriate criteria for self-assessment and a simulated situation that offers members of each professional group an equal opportunity to act in the role play. In terms of administrative implementation we recommend early coordination among the professions and educational institutions regarding the target groups, scheduling and attendance policy to ensure participant recruitment across all professions. Procedural planning should include developing teaching materials, such as the case vignette and treatment scenario, and providing technical equipment that can be operated intuitively in order to ensure efficient recording. These recommendations serve as an aid for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with video-based self-assessment at its core.

  10. Recommendations to enhance constructivist-based learning in Interprofessional Education using video-based self-assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahmen, Uta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Interprofessional collaboration is crucial to the optimization of patient care.Aim: This paper aims to provide recommendations for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with the core element of video-based self-assessment.Methodology: A course for students in medicine, physiotherapy, and nursing was developed through interprofessional, cross-institutional collaboration. The course consisted of We evaluated the preparation and implementation of the three courses conducted thus far. Concrete recommendations for implementation were made based on evaluation sheets (students, open discussions (tutors, instructors, institutions and recorded meeting minutes (project managers, project participants.Results: Basic recommendations for implementation include: selecting appropriate criteria for self-assessment and a simulated situation that offers members of each professional group an equal opportunity to act in the role play. In terms of administrative implementation we recommend early coordination among the professions and educational institutions regarding the target groups, scheduling and attendance policy to ensure participant recruitment across all professions. Procedural planning should include developing teaching materials, such as the case vignette and treatment scenario, and providing technical equipment that can be operated intuitively in order to ensure efficient recording.Conclusion: These recommendations serve as an aid for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with video-based self-assessment at its core.

  11. Using a Standardized Video-Based Assessment in a University Teacher Education Program to Examine Preservice Teachers Knowledge Related to Effective Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiens, Peter D.; Hessberg, Kevin; LoCasale-Crouch, Jennifer; DeCoster, Jamie

    2013-01-01

    The Video Assessment of Interactions and Learning (VAIL), a video-based assessment of teacher understanding of effective teaching strategies and behaviors, was administered to preservice teachers. Descriptive and regression analyzes were conducted to examine trends among participants and identify predictors at the individual level and program…

  12. Validity and applicability of a video-based animated tool to assess mobility in elderly Latin American populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Oliveira, Bruna Silva; Alvarado, Beatriz Eugenia; Curcio, Carmen Lucia; Rejeski, W Jack; Marsh, Anthony P; Ip, Edward H; Barnard, Ryan T; Guralnik, Jack M; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

    2014-10-01

    To assess the reliability and the validity of Portuguese- and Spanish-translated versions of the video-based short-form Mobility Assessment Tool in assessing self-reported mobility, and to provide evidence for the applicability of these videos in elderly Latin American populations as a complement to physical performance measures. The sample consisted of 300 elderly participants (150 from Brazil, 150 from Colombia) recruited at neighborhood social centers. Mobility was assessed with the Mobility Assessment Tool, and compared with the Short Physical Performance Battery score and self-reported functional limitations. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess associations among mobility assessment tools and health, and sociodemographic variables. A significant gradient of increasing Mobility Assessment Tool score with better physical function was observed for both self-reported and objective measures, and in each city. Associations between self-reported mobility and health were strong, and significant. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in women at both sites. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the Mobility Assessment Tool were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97) in Brazil and 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.91) in Colombia. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in Manizales than in Natal after adjustment by Short Physical Performance Battery, self-rated health and sex. These results provide evidence for high reliability and good validity of the Mobility Assessment Tool in its Spanish and Portuguese versions used in Latin American populations. In addition, the Mobility Assessment Tool can detect mobility differences related to environmental features that cannot be captured by objective performance measures. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  13. Assessment of blind source separation techniques for video-based cardiac pulse extraction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedekind, Daniel; Trumpp, Alexander; Gaetjen, Frederik; Rasche, Stefan; Matschke, Klaus; Malberg, Hagen; Zaunseder, Sebastian

    2017-03-01

    Blind source separation (BSS) aims at separating useful signal content from distortions. In the contactless acquisition of vital signs by means of the camera-based photoplethysmogram (cbPPG), BSS has evolved the most widely used approach to extract the cardiac pulse. Despite its frequent application, there is no consensus about the optimal usage of BSS and its general benefit. This contribution investigates the performance of BSS to enhance the cardiac pulse from cbPPGs in dependency to varying input data characteristics. The BSS input conditions are controlled by an automated spatial preselection routine of regions of interest. Input data of different characteristics (wavelength, dominant frequency, and signal quality) from 18 postoperative cardiovascular patients are processed with standard BSS techniques, namely principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The effect of BSS is assessed by the spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the cardiac pulse. The preselection of cbPPGs, appears beneficial providing higher SNR compared to standard cbPPGs. Both, PCA and ICA yielded better outcomes by using monochrome inputs (green wavelength) instead of inputs of different wavelengths. PCA outperforms ICA for more homogeneous input signals. Moreover, for high input SNR, the application of ICA using standard contrast is likely to decrease the SNR.

  14. Video-based rendering

    CERN Document Server

    Magnor, Marcus A

    2005-01-01

    Driven by consumer-market applications that enjoy steadily increasing economic importance, graphics hardware and rendering algorithms are a central focus of computer graphics research. Video-based rendering is an approach that aims to overcome the current bottleneck in the time-consuming modeling process and has applications in areas such as computer games, special effects, and interactive TV. This book offers an in-depth introduction to video-based rendering, a rapidly developing new interdisciplinary topic employing techniques from computer graphics, computer vision, and telecommunication en

  15. Video-based lectures: An emerging paradigm for teaching human ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Video-based teaching material is a rich and powerful medium being used in computer assisted learning. This paper aimed to assess the learning outcomes and student nurses' acceptance and satisfaction with the video-based lectures versus the traditional method of teaching human anatomy and physiology courses.

  16. Cultivating Opportunity Amid Crisis: Using Video-Based Assessment and Feedback to Support Parent-Child Relationships in Child Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Carla C.; Stacks, Ann M.; Rodgers, Andrea; Fox, Kate

    2017-01-01

    Infants, toddlers, and young children have unique needs when separated from their primary caregivers because of child abuse and neglect. Parents of these children often have their own histories of abuse and neglect and can benefit from assessments and interventions that bear in mind the effect caregiving histories have on present parenting. This…

  17. Low-cost uncalibrated video-based tool for tridimensional reconstruction oriented to assessment of chronic wounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas, Leslie; Treuillet, Sylvie; Valencia, Braulio; Llanos, Alejandro; Castañeda, Benjamín.

    2015-01-01

    Chronic wounds are a major problem worldwide which mainly affects to the geriatric population or patients with limited mobility. In tropical countries, Cutaneous Leishmaniasis(CL)s is also a cause for chronic wounds,being endemic in Peru in the 75% of the country. Therefore, the monitoring of these wounds represents a big challenge due to the remote location of the patients. This papers aims to develop a low-cost user-friendly technique to obtain a 3D reconstruction for chronic wounds oriented to clinical monitoring and assessment. The video is taken using a commercial hand-held video camera without the need of a rig. The algorithm has been specially designed for skin wounds which have certain characteristics in texture where techniques used in regular SFM applications with undefined edges wouldn't work. In addition, the technique has been developed using open source libraries. The 3D cloud point estimated allows the computation of metrics as volume, depth, superficial area which recently have been used by CL specialists showing good results in clinical assessment. Initial results in cork phantoms and CL wounds show an average distance error of less than 1mm when compared against models obtained with a industrial 3D laser scanner.

  18. Ongoing evaluation of video-based assessment of proctors' scoring of the fundamentals of laparoscopic surgery manual skills examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney, Deborah M; Brissman, Inga C; Gauger, Paul G

    2015-01-01

    In continued efforts to maintain standards required for high-stakes examination administration, Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons' Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery (FLS) program requires all prospective test proctors to complete the New FLS Proctor Workshop. As the FLS proctor pool and training evolves, the influence of experience on performance is not clear. In the previous work, we proposed that asynchronous web-based performances might be used to train proctors. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of proctors' ratings from asynchronous web-based performances by comparing the sensitivity and the specificity of ratings from proctors having varied experience levels. A sample of 42 (26% of all registered proctors) FLS proctors (recently trained novice, n = 15; intermediate, n = 20; and expert, n = 7) viewed 2 videotaped, laparoscopic-view FLS performances via the web. The first performance (error) contained 1 predetermined critical performance error in each of the 5 tasks (5 total errors), whereas the second performance (no error) contained no critical errors. For both the performances, participants noted time to complete each of the 5 tasks and any critical errors they observed (dichotomously scored). Participants also completed a demographic section that captured years of experience as a proctor. Using the Kruskal-Wallis test, we compared new trainee, intermediate, and expert proctors' recorded task times for both the performances. The sensitivity and the specificity values were also independently calculated using ratings from the error and the no error performances and then compared using the same test. There were no differences in recorded times across proctor groups for any of the tasks; p = 0.21 and 0.94. Rating sensitivity was 79% (novice), 75% (intermediate), and 83% (expert), with no significant differences across experience levels; p > 0.46. Following removal of the peg transfer task that had particularly low sensitivity

  19. The Use of Eye Tracking in Research on Video-Based Second Language (L2) Listening Assessment: A Comparison of Context Videos and Content Videos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvorov, Ruslan

    2015-01-01

    Investigating how visuals affect test takers' performance on video-based L2 listening tests has been the focus of many recent studies. While most existing research has been based on test scores and self-reported verbal data, few studies have examined test takers' viewing behavior (Ockey, 2007; Wagner, 2007, 2010a). To address this gap, in the…

  20. Interactivity in video-based models

    OpenAIRE

    Wouters, Pieter; Tabbers, Huib; Paas, Fred

    2007-01-01

    textabstractIn this review we argue that interactivity can be effective in video-based models to engage learners in relevant cognitive processes. We do not treat modeling as an isolated instructional method but adopted the social cognitive model of sequential skill acquisition in which learners start with observation and finish with independent, self-regulated performance. Moreover, we concur with the notion that interactivity should emphasize the cognitive processes that learners engage in w...

  1. Video-based face recognition via convolutional neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Tianlong; Ding, Chunhui; Karmoshi, Saleem; Zhu, Ming

    2017-06-01

    Face recognition has been widely studied recently while video-based face recognition still remains a challenging task because of the low quality and large intra-class variation of video captured face images. In this paper, we focus on two scenarios of video-based face recognition: 1)Still-to-Video(S2V) face recognition, i.e., querying a still face image against a gallery of video sequences; 2)Video-to-Still(V2S) face recognition, in contrast to S2V scenario. A novel method was proposed in this paper to transfer still and video face images to an Euclidean space by a carefully designed convolutional neural network, then Euclidean metrics are used to measure the distance between still and video images. Identities of still and video images that group as pairs are used as supervision. In the training stage, a joint loss function that measures the Euclidean distance between the predicted features of training pairs and expanding vectors of still images is optimized to minimize the intra-class variation while the inter-class variation is guaranteed due to the large margin of still images. Transferred features are finally learned via the designed convolutional neural network. Experiments are performed on COX face dataset. Experimental results show that our method achieves reliable performance compared with other state-of-the-art methods.

  2. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  3. Methodological Contributions to Video-Based Studies of Classroom Teaching and Learning: A Commentary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borko, Hilda

    2016-01-01

    In the past decade, there has been important progress in the development and validation of video-based instruments that enable the systematic assessment of teaching competence with large samples of teachers, across multiple settings and populations, and by researchers other than the developers. This commentary focuses on the methodological…

  4. TENTube: A video-based connection tool supporting competence development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Angehrn, Albert; Maxwell, Katrina

    2008-01-01

    Angehrn, A. A., & Maxwell, K. (2008). TENTube: A video-based connection tool supporting competence development. In H. W. Sligte & R. Koper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 4th TENCompetence Open Workshop. Empowering Learners for Lifelong Competence Development: pedagogical, organisational and

  5. Feedback in formative OSCEs: comparison between direct observation and video-based formats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noëlle Junod Perron

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Medical students at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland, have the opportunity to practice clinical skills with simulated patients during formative sessions in preparation for clerkships. These sessions are given in two formats: 1 direct observation of an encounter followed by verbal feedback (direct feedback and 2 subsequent review of the videotaped encounter by both student and supervisor (video-based feedback. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether content and process of feedback differed between both formats. Methods: In 2013, all second- and third-year medical students and clinical supervisors involved in formative sessions were asked to take part in the study. A sample of audiotaped feedback sessions involving supervisors who gave feedback in both formats were analyzed (content and process of the feedback using a 21-item feedback scale. Results: Forty-eight audiotaped feedback sessions involving 12 supervisors were analyzed (2 direct and 2 video-based sessions per supervisor. When adjusted for the length of feedback, there were significant differences in terms of content and process between both formats; the number of communication skills and clinical reasoning items addressed were higher in the video-based format (11.29 vs. 7.71, p=0.002 and 3.71 vs. 2.04, p=0.010, respectively. Supervisors engaged students more actively during the video-based sessions than during direct feedback sessions (self-assessment: 4.00 vs. 3.17, p=0.007; active problem-solving: 3.92 vs. 3.42, p=0.009. Students made similar observations and tended to consider that the video feedback was more useful for improving some clinical skills. Conclusion: Video-based feedback facilitates discussion of clinical reasoning, communication, and professionalism issues while at the same time actively engaging students. Different time and conceptual frameworks may explain observed differences. The choice of feedback format should depend on

  6. Design and Implementation of a Video-based Clinical Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, Connie A; Paulsen, Susan

    2007-12-01

    To (1) describe the development of a Video-based Clinical Examination (VCE) as a formal testing format to evaluate student ability to make an accurate pharmaceutical assessment and recommendation, and (2) determine student perception of the VCE testing format. Descriptive study of first-year pharmacy students. One hundred and twenty-nine students were included in the study. Students perceived that the VCE testing format provided a real life/interactive environment but felt rushed as the video segments of the patient/pharmacist interaction occurred quickly. Based on the findings of this project, we will continue to pursue further research related to validity, reliability and application of VCEs. However, the University of Colorado will continue to incorporate VCEs in the performance based evaluations in the Professional Skills Development 1 course, as it appears to be an effective stepping-stone for first-year students to begin developing their active listening, higher level learning and problem-solving skills. Results of this project will be shared with the faculty and curriculum committee at the University of Colorado School of Pharmacy to encourage further use and research of VCEs in other courses.

  7. Video-Based Surgical Learning: Improving Trainee Education and Preparation for Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Paulo; Carvalho, Nuno; Carvalho-Dias, Emanuel; João Costa, Manuel; Correia-Pinto, Jorge; Lima, Estevão

    2017-10-11

    Since the end of the XIX century, teaching of surgery has remained practically unaltered until now. With the dawn of video-assisted laparoscopy, surgery has faced new technical and learning challenges. Due to technological advances, from Internet access to portable electronic devices, the use of online resources is part of the educational armamentarium. In this respect, videos have already proven to be effective and useful, however the best way to benefit from these tools is still not clearly defined. To assess the importance of video-based learning, using an electronic questionnaire applied to residents and specialists of different surgical fields. Importance of video-based learning was assessed in a sample of 141 subjects, using a questionnaire distributed by a GoogleDoc online form. We found that 98.6% of the respondents have already used videos to prepare for surgery. When comparing video sources by formation status, residents were found to use Youtube significantly more often than specialists (p didactic illustrations and procedure narration than specialists (p < 0.001). On the other hand, specialists prized surgeon's technical skill and the presence of tips and tricks much more than residents (p < 0.001). Video-based learning is currently a hallmark of surgical preparation among residents and specialists working in Portugal. Based on these findings we believe that the creation of quality and scientifically accurate videos, and subsequent compilation in available video-libraries appears to be the future landscape for video-based learning. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Guangsheng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii annual water resources assessment, and (iii industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  9. A Course in Heterogeneous Catalysis Involving Video-Based Seminars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Mark G.

    1984-01-01

    A video-based format was used during a graduate seminar course designed to educate students on the nature of catalysis, to help transfer information among students working on similar problems, and to improve communication skills. The mechanics of and student reaction to this seminar course are discussed. (JN)

  10. Complementing Operating Room Teaching With Video-Based Coaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yue-Yung; Mazer, Laura M; Yule, Steven J; Arriaga, Alexander F; Greenberg, Caprice C; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Gawande, Atul A; Smink, Douglas S

    2017-04-01

    Surgical expertise demands technical and nontechnical skills. Traditionally, surgical trainees acquired these skills in the operating room; however, operative time for residents has decreased with duty hour restrictions. As in other professions, video analysis may help maximize the learning experience. To develop and evaluate a postoperative video-based coaching intervention for residents. In this mixed methods analysis, 10 senior (postgraduate year 4 and 5) residents were videorecorded operating with an attending surgeon at an academic tertiary care hospital. Each video formed the basis of a 1-hour one-on-one coaching session conducted by the operative attending; although a coaching framework was provided, participants determined the specific content collaboratively. Teaching points were identified in the operating room and the video-based coaching sessions; iterative inductive coding, followed by thematic analysis, was performed. Teaching points made in the operating room were compared with those in the video-based coaching sessions with respect to initiator, content, and teaching technique, adjusting for time. Among 10 cases, surgeons made more teaching points per unit time (63.0 vs 102.7 per hour) while coaching. Teaching in the video-based coaching sessions was more resident centered; attendings were more inquisitive about residents' learning needs (3.30 vs 0.28, P = .04), and residents took more initiative to direct their education (27% [198 of 729 teaching points] vs 17% [331 of 1977 teaching points], P coaching is a novel and feasible modality for supplementing intraoperative learning. Objective evaluation demonstrates that video-based coaching may be particularly useful for teaching higher-level concepts, such as decision making, and for individualizing instruction and feedback to each resident.

  11. Personality Assessment in Suicide Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyman, James R.; Eyman, Susanne Kohn

    1991-01-01

    Reviews the relevant research related to using the Rorschach, Thematic Apperception Test (TAT), and Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) in the assessment of suicidality. Uses a case illustration to show how a battery of psychological tests can be used to identify characteristics that make an individual vulnerable to suicidal…

  12. Using Concept Mapping in Video-Based Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ömer Faruk VURAL

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Video-based learning has been extensively incorporated to enhance instruction. The advanced communication technology has greatly increased the possibilities and relative value of delivering instructional video content in onlineeducation applications. Simple watching instructional video often results in poor learning outcomes. Therefore, current video-based learning resources are used in combination with other teaching methods. Concept mapping, one of teaching methods, can provide another form of this type of interactivity and may enhance the active learning capacity. The new learning tool, which consisted of video viewer, supporting text, and interactive concept map, was developed to investigate the effect of time spent interacting with the learning tool by creating concept maps relate to student achievement. The study results showed that there was no relationship found between student achievement and time spent interacting with the learning tool

  13. Video-based patient decision aids: A scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winston, Karin; Grendarova, Petra; Rabi, Doreen

    2017-10-18

    This study reviews the published literature on the use of video-based decision aids (DA) for patients. The authors describe the areas of medicine in which video-based patient DA have been evaluated, the medical decisions targeted, their reported impact, in which countries studies are being conducted, and publication trends. The literature review was conducted systematically using Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsychInfo, and Pubmed databases from inception to 2016. References of identified studies were reviewed, and hand-searches of relevant journals were conducted. 488 studies were included and organized based on predefined study characteristics. The most common decisions addressed were cancer screening, risk reduction, advance care planning, and adherence to provider recommendations. Most studies had sample sizes of fewer than 300, and most were performed in the United States. Outcomes were generally reported as positive. This field of study was relatively unknown before 1990s but the number of studies published annually continues to increase. Videos are largely positive interventions but there are significant remaining knowledge gaps including generalizability across populations. Clinicians should consider incorporating video-based DA in their patient interactions. Future research should focus on less studied areas and the mechanisms underlying effective patient decision aids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Effects of a Short Video-Based Resident-as-Teacher Training Toolkit on Resident Teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciotti, Hope A; Freret, Taylor S; Aluko, Ashley; McKeon, Bri Anne; Haviland, Miriam J; Newman, Lori R

    2017-10-01

    To pilot a short video-based resident-as-teacher training toolkit and assess its effect on resident teaching skills in clinical settings. A video-based resident-as-teacher training toolkit was previously developed by educational experts at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School. Residents were recruited from two academic hospitals, watched two videos from the toolkit ("Clinical Teaching Skills" and "Effective Clinical Supervision"), and completed an accompanying self-study guide. A novel assessment instrument for evaluating the effect of the toolkit on teaching was created through a modified Delphi process. Before and after the intervention, residents were observed leading a clinical teaching encounter and scored using the 15-item assessment instrument. The primary outcome of interest was the change in number of skills exhibited, which was assessed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Twenty-eight residents from two academic hospitals were enrolled, and 20 (71%) completed all phases of the study. More than one third of residents who volunteered to participate reported no prior formal teacher training. After completing two training modules, residents demonstrated a significant increase in the median number of teaching skills exhibited in a clinical teaching encounter, from 7.5 (interquartile range 6.5-9.5) to 10.0 (interquartile range 9.0-11.5; Passessed, there were significant improvements in asking for the learner's perspective (P=.01), providing feedback (P=.005), and encouraging questions (P=.046). Using a resident-as-teacher video-based toolkit was associated with improvements in teaching skills in residents from multiple specialties.

  15. Development opportunities of emotional intelligence with reflective strategies using video-based training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Pokorná

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Within nursing, Emotional intelligence (EI means the ability of nurses or nursing students to understand not only their own feelings and reactions, but also, and more importantly, the feelings and reactions of the patients in their care. EI plays an important part in forming successful human relationships as a part of emotional labour. Emotional labour is important in establishing therapeutic nurse–patient relationships but carries the risk of ‘burnout’ if prolonged or intense. Objective/Purpose: The assessment of students' views and perceptions of video-based training as an opportunity to develop emotional intelligence. Material and methods: Data about the video-based training in relation to EI were collected, after the completion of the reflection assignments, using semi-structured interviews and reflective sheets (ALACT model /acronym of the basic phases and steps/ - Action, Looking back on the action, Awareness of essential aspects, Creating alternative methods of action, Trial. The study included 46 students in total (post-graduate student Intensive care nurses in two sequential academic years (2012/13 n = 15 and 2013/14 n = 31. Results: The results showed that students in both cohorts considered video as an effective tool for carrying out self-evaluations and development of EI. The usefulness of video and peer-feedback for other reflection processes differed in students' view. Most students (80% appreciated the opportunity of viewing some unusual situations from clinical practice and appropriate ways of communicating. Some students (17% stated that they needed more time for similar teaching activities. Conclusion: 80% of all the students considered video-based training generally useful for all the reflection processes and improvement of EI; however they also indicated some limitations (i.e. time consuming teaching method. The study demonstrated that student-centric pedagogies and reflective activities on student learning

  16. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  17. Quantitative assessment of protein function prediction programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, B N; Steffens, M B R; Raittz, R T; Santos-Weiss, I C R; Marchaukoski, J N

    2015-12-21

    Fast prediction of protein function is essential for high-throughput sequencing analysis. Bioinformatic resources provide cheaper and faster techniques for function prediction and have helped to accelerate the process of protein sequence characterization. In this study, we assessed protein function prediction programs that accept amino acid sequences as input. We analyzed the classification, equality, and similarity between programs, and, additionally, compared program performance. The following programs were selected for our assessment: Blast2GO, InterProScan, PANTHER, Pfam, and ScanProsite. This selection was based on the high number of citations (over 500), fully automatic analysis, and the possibility of returning a single best classification per sequence. We tested these programs using 12 gold standard datasets from four different sources. The gold standard classification of the databases was based on expert analysis, the Protein Data Bank, or the Structure-Function Linkage Database. We found that the miss rate among the programs is globally over 50%. Furthermore, we observed little overlap in the correct predictions from each program. Therefore, a combination of multiple types of sources and methods, including experimental data, protein-protein interaction, and data mining, may be the best way to generate more reliable predictions and decrease the miss rate.

  18. ssessment of Learner Acceptance and Satisfaction with Video-Based Instructional Materials for Teaching Practical Skills at a Distance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Donkor

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available As video-based instructional materials become available to distance learners to learn practical skills at a distance, it is important to assess the instructional effectiveness of these materials and to understand how students respond to them. This paper is the second part of a larger exploratory study that assessed the instructional effectiveness of video-based instructional materials for teaching distance learners practical skills in block-laying and concreting and how learners respond to these instructional materials. Specifically, this paper aims to assess learners’ acceptance and satisfaction with the materials. It also aims to determine whether levels of learner satisfaction and acceptance differ according to study centres. Data were collected from 71 respondents at three study centres using a self-completion questionnaire comprising 17 Likert-type items. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and Scheffe’s post hoc test at a 0.05 level of significance. Learners appeared positive about their learning experiences with the use of video-based instructional materials to learn practical skills at a distance as they rated highly all the items assessing their acceptance and satisfaction. Results of item-by-item ANOVA regarding learner acceptance indicated that the respondents, categorized according to study centres, exhibited similar levels of acceptance for nine of the ten items. For learner satisfaction, there were no statistically significant differences for six of the seven items. Thus, learners of different study centres exhibited about the same level of acceptance and satisfaction.

  19. The role of imitation in video-based interventions for children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, C J; Moore, D W; Anderson, A; Dillenburger, K

    2013-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to bridge the gap between the corpus of imitation research and video-based intervention (VBI) research, and consider the impact imitation skills may be having on VBI outcomes and highlight potential areas for improving efficacy. A review of the imitation literature was conducted focusing on imitation skill deficits in children with autism followed by a critical review of the video modelling literature focusing on pre-intervention assessment of imitation skills and the impact imitation deficits may have on VBI outcomes. Children with autism have specific imitation deficits, which may impact VBI outcomes. Imitation training or procedural modifications made to videos may accommodate for these deficits. There are only six studies where VBI researchers have taken pre-intervention imitation assessments using an assortment of imitation measures. More research is required to develop a standardised multi-dimensional imitation assessment battery that can better inform VBI.

  20. On some methods for assessing earthquake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.; Peresan, A.

    2017-09-01

    A regional approach to the problem of assessing earthquake predictions inevitably faces a deficit of data. We point out some basic limits of assessment methods reported in the literature, considering the practical case of the performance of the CN pattern recognition method in the prediction of large Italian earthquakes. Along with the classical hypothesis testing, a new game approach, the so-called parimutuel gambling (PG) method, is examined. The PG, originally proposed for the evaluation of the probabilistic earthquake forecast, has been recently adapted for the case of 'alarm-based' CN prediction. The PG approach is a non-standard method; therefore it deserves careful examination and theoretical analysis. We show that the PG alarm-based version leads to an almost complete loss of information about predicted earthquakes (even for a large sample). As a result, any conclusions based on the alarm-based PG approach are not to be trusted. We also show that the original probabilistic PG approach does not necessarily identifies the genuine forecast correctly among competing seismicity rate models, even when applied to extensive data.

  1. Multiresolution coding for video-based service applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gharavi, Hami

    1995-12-01

    The video coding and distribution approach presented in this paper has two key characteristics that make it ideal for integration of video communication services over common broadband digital networks. The modular multi-resolution nature of the coding scheme provides the necessary flexibility to accommodate future advances in video technology as well as robust distribution over various network environments. This paper will present an efficient and scalable coding scheme for video communications. The scheme is capable of encoding and decoding video signals in a hierarchical, multilayer fashion to provide video at differing quality grades. Subsequently, the utilization of this approach to enable efficient bandwidth sharing and robust distribution of video signals in multipoint communications is presented. Coding and distribution architectures are discussed which include multi-party communications in a multi-window fashion within ATM environments. Furthermore, under the limited capabilities typical of wideband/broadband access networks, this architecture accommodates important video-based service applications such as Interactive Distance Learning.

  2. TENTube: A Video-based Connection Tool Supporting Competence Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert A Angehrn

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of knowledge management initiatives fail because they do not take sufficiently into account the emotional, psychological and social needs of individuals. Only if users see real value for themselves will they actively use and contribute their own knowledge to the system, and engage with other users. Connection dynamics can make this easier, and even enjoyable, by connecting people and bringing them closer through shared experiences such as playing a game together. A higher connectedness of people to other people, and to relevant knowledge assets, will motivate them to participate more actively and increase system usage. In this paper, we describe the design of TENTube, a video-based connection tool we are developing to support competence development. TENTube integrates rich profiling and network visualization and navigation with agent-enhanced game-like connection dynamics.

  3. Automatic Video-based Analysis of Human Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fihl, Preben

    The human motion contains valuable information in many situations and people frequently perform an unconscious analysis of the motion of other people to understand their actions, intentions, and state of mind. An automatic analysis of human motion will facilitate many applications and thus has...... received great interest from both industry and research communities. The focus of this thesis is on video-based analysis of human motion and the thesis presents work within three overall topics, namely foreground segmentation, action recognition, and human pose estimation. Foreground segmentation is often...... the first important step in the analysis of human motion. By separating foreground from background the subsequent analysis can be focused and efficient. This thesis presents a robust background subtraction method that can be initialized with foreground objects in the scene and is capable of handling...

  4. Video-based training to improve perceptual-cognitive decision-making performance of Australian football umpires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Paul; Mesagno, Christopher; Berry, Jason; Spittle, Michael; Harvey, Jack

    2017-03-04

    Decision-making is a central component of the in-game performance of Australian football umpires; however, current umpire training focuses largely on physiological development with decision-making skills development conducted via explicit lecture-style meetings with limited practice devoted to making actual decisions. Therefore, this study investigated the efficacy of a video-based training programme, aimed to provide a greater amount of contextualised visual experiences without explicit instruction, to improve decision-making skills of umpires. Australian football umpires (n = 52) were recruited from metropolitan and regional Division 1 competitions. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention or control group and classified according to previous umpire game experience (i.e., experienced; less experienced). The intervention group completed a 12-week video-based decision-making training programme, with decision-making performance assessed at pre-training, and 1-week retention and 3-week retention periods. The control group did not complete any video-based training. Results indicated a significant Group (intervention; Control) × Test interaction (F(1, 100) = 3.98; P = 0.02, partial ῆ(2) = 0.074), with follow-up pairwise comparisons indicating significant within-group differences over time for the intervention group. In addition, decision-making performance of the less experienced umpires in the intervention group significantly improved (F(2, 40) = 5.03, P = 0.01, partial ῆ(2) = 0.201). Thus, video-based training programmes may be a viable adjunct to current training programmes to hasten decision-making development, especially for less experienced umpires.

  5. Analysis of unstructured video based on camera motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdollahian, Golnaz; Delp, Edward J.

    2007-01-01

    Although considerable work has been done in management of "structured" video such as movies, sports, and television programs that has known scene structures, "unstructured" video analysis is still a challenging problem due to its unrestricted nature. The purpose of this paper is to address issues in the analysis of unstructured video and in particular video shot by a typical unprofessional user (i.e home video). We describe how one can make use of camera motion information for unstructured video analysis. A new concept, "camera viewing direction," is introduced as the building block of home video analysis. Motion displacement vectors are employed to temporally segment the video based on this concept. We then find the correspondence between the camera behavior with respect to the subjective importance of the information in each segment and describe how different patterns in the camera motion can indicate levels of interest in a particular object or scene. By extracting these patterns, the most representative frames, keyframes, for the scenes are determined and aggregated to summarize the video sequence.

  6. Video-based measurements for wireless capsule endoscope tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyrou, Evaggelos; Iakovidis, Dimitris K.

    2014-01-01

    The wireless capsule endoscope is a swallowable medical device equipped with a miniature camera enabling the visual examination of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. It wirelessly transmits thousands of images to an external video recording system, while its location and orientation are being tracked approximately by external sensor arrays. In this paper we investigate a video-based approach to tracking the capsule endoscope without requiring any external equipment. The proposed method involves extraction of speeded up robust features from video frames, registration of consecutive frames based on the random sample consensus algorithm, and estimation of the displacement and rotation of interest points within these frames. The results obtained by the application of this method on wireless capsule endoscopy videos indicate its effectiveness and improved performance over the state of the art. The findings of this research pave the way for a cost-effective localization and travel distance measurement of capsule endoscopes in the GI tract, which could contribute in the planning of more accurate surgical interventions.

  7. Assessing the fidelity of predictability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pegion, Kathy; DelSole, Timothy; Becker, Emily; Cicerone, Teresa

    2017-09-01

    Predictability is an intrinsic limit of the climate system due to uncertainty in initial conditions and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Estimates of predictability together with calculations of current prediction skill are used to define the gaps in our prediction capabilities, inform future model developments, and indicate to stakeholders the potential for making forecasts that can inform their decisions. The true predictability of the climate system is not known and must be estimated, typically using a perfect model estimate from an ensemble prediction system. However, different prediction systems can give different estimates of predictability. Can we determine which estimate of predictability is most representative of the true predictability of the climate system? We test three metrics as potential indicators of the fidelity of predictability estimates in an idealized framework—the spread-error relationship, autocorrelation and skill. Using the North American multi-model ensemble re-forecast database, we quantify whether these metrics accurately indicate a model's ability to properly estimate predictability. It is found that none of these metrics is a robust measure for determining whether a predictability estimate is realistic for El Nino-Southern oscillation events. For temperature and precipitation over land, errors in the spread-error ratio are related to errors in estimating predictability at the shortest lead-times, while skill is not related to predictability errors. The relationship between errors in the autocorrelation and errors in estimating predictability varies by lead-time and region.

  8. The Validity of Interpersonal Skills Assessment via Situational Judgment Tests for Predicting Academic Success and Job Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lievens, Filip; Sackett, Paul R.

    2012-01-01

    This study provides conceptual and empirical arguments why an assessment of applicants' procedural knowledge about interpersonal behavior via a video-based situational judgment test might be valid for academic and postacademic success criteria. Four cohorts of medical students (N = 723) were followed from admission to employment. Procedural…

  9. Detection of upscale-crop and partial manipulation in surveillance video based on sensor pattern noise

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hyun, Dai-Kyung; Ryu, Seung-Jin; Lee, Hae-Yeoun; Lee, Heung-Kyu

    2013-01-01

    .... Nevertheless, there is little research being done on forgery of surveillance videos. This paper proposes a forensic technique to detect forgeries of surveillance video based on sensor pattern noise (SPN...

  10. Video-based eyetracking methods and algorithms in head-mounted displays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Hong; Krishnaswamy, Prasanna; Rolland, Jannick P.

    2006-05-01

    Head pose is utilized to approximate a user’s line-of-sight for real-time image rendering and interaction in most of the 3D visualization applications using head-mounted displays (HMD). The eye often reaches an object of interest before the completion of most head movements. It is highly desirable to integrate eye-tracking capability into HMDs in various applications. While the added complexity of an eyetracked-HMD (ET-HMD) imposes challenges on designing a compact, portable, and robust system, the integration offers opportunities to improve eye tracking accuracy and robustness. In this paper, based on the modeling of an eye imaging and tracking system, we examine the challenges and identify parametric requirements for video-based pupil-glint tracking methods in an ET-HMD design, and predict how these parameters may affect the tracking accuracy, resolution, and robustness. We further present novel methods and associated algorithms that effectively improve eye-tracking accuracy and extend the tracking range.

  11. Assessment of protein disorder region predictions in CASP10

    KAUST Repository

    Monastyrskyy, Bohdan

    2013-11-22

    The article presents the assessment of disorder region predictions submitted to CASP10. The evaluation is based on the three measures tested in previous CASPs: (i) balanced accuracy, (ii) the Matthews correlation coefficient for the binary predictions, and (iii) the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of predictions using probability annotation. We also performed new analyses such as comparison of the submitted predictions with those obtained with a Naïve disorder prediction method and with predictions from the disorder prediction databases D2P2 and MobiDB. On average, the methods participating in CASP10 demonstrated slightly better performance than those in CASP9.

  12. Video-based instructions for surgical hand disinfection as a replacement for conventional tuition? A randomised, blind comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weber, Uwe

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Various different learning methods are available for planning tuition regarding the introduction to surgical hand disinfection. These learning methods should help to organise and deal with this topic. The use of a video film is an alternative to conventional tuition due to the real presentation possibilities of practical demonstration. Objective: This study examines by way of comparison which form of communication is more effective for learning and applying surgical hand disinfection for medical students in their first year of studies: video-based instruction or conventional tuition. Methodology: A total of 50 first-year medical students were randomly allocated either to the “Conventional Instruction” (CI study group or to the “Video-based Instruction” (VI study group. The conventional instruction was carried out by an experienced nurse preceptor/nurse educator for the operating theatre who taught the preparatory measures and the actual procedure in a two-minute lesson. The second group watched a two-minute video sequence with identical content. Afterwards, both groups demonstrated practically the knowledge they had acquired at an individual practical test station. The quality (a of the preparation and (b of the procedure as well as (c the quality of the results was assessed by 6 blind experts using a check list. The acceptability of the respective teaching method was also asked about using a questionnaire.Results: The group performance did not differ either in the preparation (=-78, <0.44 or in the quality (=-99, <0.34. With respect to performance, it was possible to demonstrate a strong treatment effect. In the practical (=-3.33, <0.002, =0.943 and in the total score (=-2.65, <0.011, =0.751, the group with video-based instruction achieved a significantly better result. In response to the question as to which of the two learning methods they would prefer, the significant majority (60.4% of students stated video instruction

  13. RCT of a Video-based Intervention Program for Caregivers of Patients with an Eating Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quadflieg, Norbert; Schädler, Daniela; Naab, Silke; Fichter, Manfred M

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial measuring the efficacy of a video-based skills training to decrease burden and psychological distress in caregivers of inpatients treated for an eating disorder in specialized hospital units. Two hundred eighty-five caregivers were randomized to either the video intervention (N = 147) or the control group (N = 138). Caregivers' primary outcomes were assessed via Eating Disorder Symptom Impact Scale, Accommodation and Enabling Scale and General Health Questionnaire-12 at baseline and three-months follow-up. Acceptability of the intervention was high. Receiving additional external professional help like psychotherapy or clinical counselling was identified as a moderator contributing to the efficacy of the intervention. Caregivers' burden (Eating Disorder Symptom Impact Scale) and psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire-12) were reduced by the intervention but not caregivers' accommodating behaviours (Accommodation and Enabling Scale). The video training is a promising approach and effective supplement for caregivers of patients with an eating disorder. Additional professional help to caregivers increases the effectiveness of the intervention. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  14. Video-Based Eye Tracking in Sex Research: A Systematic Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzlaff, Frederike; Briken, Peer; Dekker, Arne

    2015-12-21

    Although eye tracking has been used for decades, it has gained popularity in the area of sex research only recently. The aim of this article is to examine the potential merits of eye tracking for this field. We present a systematic review of the current use of video-based eye-tracking technology in this area, evaluate the findings, and identify future research opportunities. A total of 34 relevant studies published between 2006 and 2014 were identified for inclusion by means of online databases and other methods. We grouped them into three main areas of research: body perception and attractiveness, forensic research, and sexual orientation. Despite the methodological and theoretical differences across the studies, eye tracking has been shown to be a promising tool for sex research. The article suggests there is much potential for further studies to employ this technique because it is noninvasive and yet still allows for the assessment of both conscious and unconscious perceptional processes. Furthermore, eye tracking can be implemented in investigations of various theoretical backgrounds, ranging from biology to the social sciences.

  15. A video-based educational pilot for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) treatment: A randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Elyse M; Manalo, Iviensan F; Chen, Suephy C; Chen, Kuang-Ho; Stoff, Benjamin K

    2016-03-01

    Several treatment options exist for uncomplicated basal cell carcinoma. Standardized and effective informed consent is difficult in busy dermatology clinics. We investigated whether an educational video depicting 3 treatment options for uncomplicated basal cell carcinoma-excision, electrodessication and curettage, and topical therapy-before standard in-office informed consent affected patient knowledge and consent time compared with standard in-office consent alone. Patients were randomized to receive video education plus verbal discussion (video) or standard verbal discussion alone (control). Both groups completed baseline and final knowledge assessments. The primary outcome measure was change in knowledge scores between groups. Secondary outcomes were patient satisfaction, physician satisfaction, and informed consent time. In all, 32 eligible patients (16 control, 16 video) from an academic institution and affiliate Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center dermatology clinics participated. The video group had significantly greater gains in knowledge compared with the control group (mean ± SD: 9 ± 3.6 vs 2.9 ± 2.2) (P = .0048). There was no significant difference in total consent time between groups. Patients and physicians were highly satisfied with the video. Small sample size and slight methodological difference between recruitment sites are limitations. Video-based education for basal cell carcinoma improved patient knowledge with no additional physician time when compared with standard communication. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Relative Hidden Markov Models for Video-Based Evaluation of Motion Skills in Surgical Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Baoxin

    2015-06-01

    A proper temporal model is essential to analysis tasks involving sequential data. In computer-assisted surgical training, which is the focus of this study, obtaining accurate temporal models is a key step towards automated skill-rating. Conventional learning approaches can have only limited success in this domain due to insufficient amount of data with accurate labels. We propose a novel formulation termed Relative Hidden Markov Model and develop algorithms for obtaining a solution under this formulation. The method requires only relative ranking between input pairs, which are readily available from training sessions in the target application, hence alleviating the requirement on data labeling. The proposed algorithm learns a model from the training data so that the attribute under consideration is linked to the likelihood of the input, hence supporting comparing new sequences. For evaluation, synthetic data are first used to assess the performance of the approach, and then we experiment with real videos from a widely-adopted surgical training platform. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach provides a promising solution to video-based motion skill evaluation. To further illustrate the potential of generalizing the method to other applications of temporal analysis, we also report experiments on using our model on speech-based emotion recognition.

  17. Effect of Video-Based versus Personalized Instruction on Errors during Elastic Tubing Exercises for Musculoskeletal Pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kenneth Jay; Schraefel, M. C.; Brandt, M.

    2014-01-01

    Workplace interventions have shown beneficial results of resistance training for chronic pain in the neck, shoulder, and arm. However, studies have relied on experienced exercise instructors, which may not be an available resource at most workplaces. The objective of this study is to evaluate...... the technical performance level of upper limb rehabilitation exercises following video-based versus personalized exercise instruction. We recruited 38 laboratory technicians and office workers with neck/shoulder pain for a two-week exercise training period receiving either (1) personal and video or (2) video...... only instruction in four typical neck/shoulder/arm rehabilitation exercises using elastic tubing. At a 2-week follow-up, the participants' technical execution was assessed by two blinded physical therapists using a reliable error assessment tool. The error assessment was based on ordinal deviation...

  18. Audiovisual quality assessment and prediction for videotelephony

    CERN Document Server

    Belmudez, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The work presented in this book focuses on modeling audiovisual quality as perceived by the users of IP-based solutions for video communication like videotelephony. It also extends the current framework for the parametric prediction of audiovisual call quality. The book addresses several aspects related to the quality perception of entire video calls, namely, the quality estimation of the single audio and video modalities in an interactive context, the audiovisual quality integration of these modalities and the temporal pooling of short sample-based quality scores to account for the perceptual quality impact of time-varying degradations.

  19. The Coverage Problem in Video-Based Wireless Sensor Networks: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Affonso Guedes

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks typically consist of a great number of tiny low-cost electronic devices with limited sensing and computing capabilities which cooperatively communicate to collect some kind of information from an area of interest. When wireless nodes of such networks are equipped with a low-power camera, visual data can be retrieved, facilitating a new set of novel applications. The nature of video-based wireless sensor networks demands new algorithms and solutions, since traditional wireless sensor networks approaches are not feasible or even efficient for that specialized communication scenario. The coverage problem is a crucial issue of wireless sensor networks, requiring specific solutions when video-based sensors are employed. In this paper, it is surveyed the state of the art of this particular issue, regarding strategies, algorithms and general computational solutions. Open research areas are also discussed, envisaging promising investigation considering coverage in video-based wireless sensor networks.

  20. The coverage problem in video-based wireless sensor networks: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Daniel G; Guedes, Luiz Affonso

    2010-01-01

    Wireless sensor networks typically consist of a great number of tiny low-cost electronic devices with limited sensing and computing capabilities which cooperatively communicate to collect some kind of information from an area of interest. When wireless nodes of such networks are equipped with a low-power camera, visual data can be retrieved, facilitating a new set of novel applications. The nature of video-based wireless sensor networks demands new algorithms and solutions, since traditional wireless sensor networks approaches are not feasible or even efficient for that specialized communication scenario. The coverage problem is a crucial issue of wireless sensor networks, requiring specific solutions when video-based sensors are employed. In this paper, it is surveyed the state of the art of this particular issue, regarding strategies, algorithms and general computational solutions. Open research areas are also discussed, envisaging promising investigation considering coverage in video-based wireless sensor networks.

  1. Predicting Employee Retention through Preemployment Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrick, Ruth Z.; Raspiller, Edward E.

    2011-01-01

    Twenty-first century is seeing changes in the nature of work, the workforce, and employment practices. These changes, along with increased employer need to select employees who will have the best fit with particular jobs in order to increase return on investment, are leading employers toward greater use of preemployment assessments. The purpose of…

  2. Short communications A preliminary assessment of predictive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sci. 29,373-383. ROUX, C.Z. & SCHOLTZ,M.M., 1984. Breeding goals for optimal total life cycle production systems. Proc. 2nd Wrld. Congr. Sheep and Beef Cattle Breed., pp.44+464, Pretoria (lG-I9 April,l984). RUSSEL, A.J.F., DONEY, J.M. & GttNN, R.c., 1969. Subjective assessment of body fat in live sheep. J. Agric. Sci.

  3. A critical assessment of topologically associating domain prediction tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dali, Rola

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Topologically associating domains (TADs) have been proposed to be the basic unit of chromosome folding and have been shown to play key roles in genome organization and gene regulation. Several different tools are available for TAD prediction, but their properties have never been thoroughly assessed. In this manuscript, we compare the output of seven different TAD prediction tools on two published Hi-C data sets. TAD predictions varied greatly between tools in number, size distribution and other biological properties. Assessed against a manual annotation of TADs, individual TAD boundary predictions were found to be quite reliable, but their assembly into complete TAD structures was much less so. In addition, many tools were sensitive to sequencing depth and resolution of the interaction frequency matrix. This manuscript provides users and designers of TAD prediction tools with information that will help guide the choice of tools and the interpretation of their predictions. PMID:28334773

  4. Prediction of outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage : Timing of clinical assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Donkelaar, Carlina E.; Bakker, Nicolaas A.; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; Uyttenboogaart, Maarten; Metzemaekers, Jan D. M.; Eshghi, Omid S.; Mazuri, Aryan; Foumani, Mahrouz; Luijckx, Gert-Jan; Groen, Rob J. M.; van Dijk, J. Marc C.

    OBJECTIVE Currently, early prediction of outcome after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) lacks accuracy despite multiple studies addressing this issue. The clinical condition of the patient on admission as assessed using the World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grading scale is

  5. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Systematic Review of Video-Based Instruction Component and Parametric Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kyle D.; Aljehany, Mashal Salman; Altaf, Enas Mohammednour

    2017-01-01

    Video-based instruction (VBI) has a substantial amount of research supporting its use with individuals with autism spectrum disorder and other developmental disabilities. However, it has typically been implemented as a treatment package containing multiple interventions. Additionally, there are procedural variations of VBI. Thus, it is difficult…

  7. Open-Ended Interaction in Cooperative Pro-to-typing: A Video-based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Susanne; Grønbæk, Kaj; Trigg, Randal

    1991-01-01

    on a fine-grained video-based analysis of a single prototyping session, and focuses on the effects of an open-ended style of interaction between users and designers around a prototype. An analysis of focus shifts, initiative and storytelling during the session is brought to bear on the question of whether...

  8. Supporting Online Video-Based Correction for Language Learning through Markup-Based Video Editing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hada, Yoshiaki; Ogata, Hiroaki; Yano, Yoneo

    This paper focuses on an online video based correction system for language learning. The prototype system using the proposed model supports learning between a native English teacher and a non-native learner using a videoconference system. It extends the videoconference system so that it can record the conversation of a learning scene. If a teacher…

  9. The Impact of Video-Based Materials on Chinese-Speaking Learners' English Text Comprehension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Lu-Fang

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated whether video-based materials can facilitate second language learners' text comprehension at the levels of macrostructure and microstructure. Three classes inclusive of 98 Chinese-speaking university students joined this study. The three classes were randomly assigned to three treatment groups: on-screen text (T Group),…

  10. Validation of a Video-based Game-Understanding Test Procedure in Badminton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomqvist, Minna T.; Luhtanen, Pekka; Laakso, Lauri; Keskinen, Esko

    2000-01-01

    Reports the development and validation of video-based game-understanding tests in badminton for elementary and secondary students. The tests included different sequences that simulated actual game situations. Players had to solve tactical problems by selecting appropriate solutions and arguments for their decisions. Results suggest that the test…

  11. Student Activity and Profile Datasets from an Online Video-Based Collaborative Learning Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, Estefanía; Gértrudix, Manuel; Urquiza-Fuentes, Jaime; Haya, Pablo A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes two datasets extracted from a video-based educational experience using a social and collaborative platform. The length of the trial was 3 months. It involved 111 students from two different courses. Twenty-nine came from Computer Engineering (CE) course and 82 from Media and Communication (M&C) course. They were organised…

  12. Emotional Impact of a Video-Based Suicide Prevention Program on Suicidal Viewers and Suicide Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J.; Dhillon-Davis, Luther E.; Dhillon-Davis, Kieran K.

    2009-01-01

    In light of continuing concerns about iatrogenic effects associated with suicide prevention efforts utilizing video-based media, the impact of emotionally-charged videos on two vulnerable subgroups--suicidal viewers and suicide survivors--was explored. Following participation in routine suicide education as a part of the U.S. Air Force Suicide…

  13. Receiving Video-Based Feedback in Elite Ice-Hockey: A Player's Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Lee J.; Potrac, Paul; Groom, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper was to provide some rich insights into how an elite ice-hockey player responded to his coaches' pedagogical delivery of video-based feedback sessions. Data for this study were gathered through a series of in-depth, semi-structured interviews and a reflective log relating to those interviews. The interviews were transcribed…

  14. Improving Secondary School Students' Achievement and Retention in Biology through Video-Based Multimedia Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambari, Amosa Isiaka; Yaki, Akawo Angwal; Gana, Eli S.; Ughovwa, Queen Eguono

    2014-01-01

    The study examined the effects of video-based multimedia instruction on secondary school students' achievement and retention in biology. In Nigeria, 120 students (60 boys and 60 girls) were randomly selected from four secondary schools assigned either into one of three experimental groups: Animation + Narration; Animation + On-screen Text;…

  15. Video-Based Interaction, Negotiation for Comprehensibility, and Second Language Speech Learning: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kazuya; Akiyama, Yuka

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the impact of video-based conversational interaction on the longitudinal development (one academic semester) of second language production by college-level Japanese English-as-a-foreign-language learners. Students in the experimental group engaged in weekly dyadic conversation exchanges with native speakers in the United States…

  16. Student perceptions of a video-based blended learning approach for improving pediatric physical examination skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Ronny; Seitz, Anke; Bosse, Hans Martin; Lutz, Thomas; Huwendiek, Sören

    2016-11-01

    Physical examination skills are crucial for a medical doctor. The physical examination of children differs significantly from that of adults. Students often have only limited contact with pediatric patients to practice these skills. In order to improve the acquisition of pediatric physical examination skills during bedside teaching, we have developed a combined video-based training concept, subsequently evaluating its use and perception. Fifteen videos were compiled, demonstrating defined physical examination sequences in children of different ages. Students were encouraged to use these videos as preparation for bedside teaching during their pediatric clerkship. After bedside teaching, acceptance of this approach was evaluated using a 10-item survey, asking for the frequency of video use and the benefits to learning, self-confidence, and preparation of bedside teaching as well as the concluding OSCE. N=175 out of 299 students returned survey forms (58.5%). Students most frequently used videos, either illustrating complete examination sequences or corresponding focus examinations frequently assessed in the OSCE. Students perceived the videos as a helpful method of conveying the practical process and preparation for bedside teaching as well as the OSCE, and altogether considered them a worthwhile learning experience. Self-confidence at bedside teaching was enhanced by preparation with the videos. The demonstration of a defined standardized procedural sequence, explanatory comments, and demonstration of infrequent procedures and findings were perceived as particularly supportive. Long video segments, poor alignment with other curricular learning activities, and technical problems were perceived as less helpful. Students prefer an optional individual use of the videos, with easy technical access, thoughtful combination with the bedside teaching, and consecutive standardized practice of demonstrated procedures. Preparation with instructional videos combined with bedside

  17. Predictive validity of the Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Boocock, M.; Coenen, P.; Heuvel, S. van den; Bosch, T.

    2014-01-01

    The Hand Arm Risk assessment Method (HARM) is a simplified risk assessment method for determining musculoskeletal symptoms to the arm, neck and/or shoulder posed by hand-arm tasks of the upper body. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of HARM using data collected from a

  18. Facial Video-Based Photoplethysmography to Detect HRV at Rest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J; Ramos-Castro, J; Movellan, J; Parrado, E; Rodas, G; Capdevila, L

    2015-06-01

    Our aim is to demonstrate the usefulness of photoplethysmography (PPG) for analyzing heart rate variability (HRV) using a standard 5-min test at rest with paced breathing, comparing the results with real RR intervals and testing supine and sitting positions. Simultaneous recordings of R-R intervals were conducted with a Polar system and a non-contact PPG, based on facial video recording on 20 individuals. Data analysis and editing were performed with individually designated software for each instrument. Agreement on HRV parameters was assessed with concordance correlations, effect size from ANOVA and Bland and Altman plots. For supine position, differences between video and Polar systems showed a small effect size in most HRV parameters. For sitting position, these differences showed a moderate effect size in most HRV parameters. A new procedure, based on the pixels that contained more heart beat information, is proposed for improving the signal-to-noise ratio in the PPG video signal. Results were acceptable in both positions but better in the supine position. Our approach could be relevant for applications that require monitoring of stress or cardio-respiratory health, such as effort/recuperation states in sports. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. A Benchmark Dataset and Saliency-guided Stacked Autoencoders for Video-based Salient Object Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Xia, Changqun; Chen, Xiaowu

    2017-10-12

    Image-based salient object detection (SOD) has been extensively studied in past decades. However, video-based SOD is much less explored due to the lack of large-scale video datasets within which salient objects are unambiguously defined and annotated. Toward this end, this paper proposes a video-based SOD dataset that consists of 200 videos. In constructing the dataset, we manually annotate all objects and regions over 7,650 uniformly sampled keyframes and collect the eye-tracking data of 23 subjects who free-view all videos. From the user data, we find that salient objects in a video can be defined as objects that consistently pop-out throughout the video, and objects with such attributes can be unambiguously annotated by combining manually annotated object/region masks with eye-tracking data of multiple subjects. To the best of our knowledge, it is currently the largest dataset for videobased salient object detection. Based on this dataset, this paper proposes an unsupervised baseline approach for video-based SOD by using saliencyguided stacked autoencoders. In the proposed approach, multiple spatiotemporal saliency cues are first extracted at the pixel, superpixel and object levels. With these saliency cues, stacked autoencoders are constructed in an unsupervised manner that automatically infers a saliency score for each pixel by progressively encoding the high-dimensional saliency cues gathered from the pixel and its spatiotemporal neighbors. In experiments, the proposed unsupervised approach is compared with 31 state-of-the-art models on the proposed dataset and outperforms 30 of them, including 19 imagebased classic (unsupervised or non-deep learning) models, six image-based deep learning models, and five video-based unsupervised models. Moreover, benchmarking results show that the proposed dataset is very challenging and has the potential to boost the development of video-based SOD.

  20. Deep Cropping via Attention Box Prediction and Aesthetics Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

    2017-01-01

    We model the photo cropping problem as a cascade of attention box regression and aesthetic quality classification, based on deep learning. A neural network is designed that has two branches for predicting attention bounding box and analyzing aesthetics, respectively. The predicted attention box is treated as an initial crop window where a set of cropping candidates are generated around it, without missing important information. Then, aesthetics assessment is employed to select the final crop ...

  1. Video-Based Self-Observation as a Component of Developmental Teacher Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo A. Mercado

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the benefits to teacher evaluation when video-based self-observation is done by teachers as a vehicle for individual, reflective practice. We explore how it was applied systematically at the Instituto Cultural Peruano Norteamericano (ICPNA bi-national center in Lima, Peru among hundreds of English as a foreign language (EFL teachers in two institution-wide initiatives that have relied on self-observation through video professional development. In these cases, we provide a descriptive framework for each initiative as well as information on what was ultimately achieved by teachers, supervisors and the institution as a whole. We conclude with recommendations for implementing video-based self-evaluation.

  2. A video-based eye pupil detection system for diagnosing bipolar disorder

    OpenAIRE

    AKINCI, Gökay; Polat, Ediz; Koçak, Orhan Murat

    2012-01-01

    Eye pupil detection systems have become increasingly popular in image processing and computer vision applications in medical systems. In this study, a video-based eye pupil detection system is developed for diagnosing bipolar disorder. Bipolar disorder is a condition in which people experience changes in cognitive processes and abilities, including reduced attentional and executive capabilities and impaired memory. In order to detect these abnormal behaviors, a number of neuropsychologi...

  3. A Benchmark and Comparative Study of Video-Based Face Recognition on COX Face Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhiwu; Shan, Shiguang; Wang, Ruiping; Zhang, Haihong; Lao, Shihong; Kuerban, Alifu; Chen, Xilin

    2015-12-01

    Face recognition with still face images has been widely studied, while the research on video-based face recognition is inadequate relatively, especially in terms of benchmark datasets and comparisons. Real-world video-based face recognition applications require techniques for three distinct scenarios: 1) Videoto-Still (V2S); 2) Still-to-Video (S2V); and 3) Video-to-Video (V2V), respectively, taking video or still image as query or target. To the best of our knowledge, few datasets and evaluation protocols have benchmarked for all the three scenarios. In order to facilitate the study of this specific topic, this paper contributes a benchmarking and comparative study based on a newly collected still/video face database, named COX(1) Face DB. Specifically, we make three contributions. First, we collect and release a largescale still/video face database to simulate video surveillance with three different video-based face recognition scenarios (i.e., V2S, S2V, and V2V). Second, for benchmarking the three scenarios designed on our database, we review and experimentally compare a number of existing set-based methods. Third, we further propose a novel Point-to-Set Correlation Learning (PSCL) method, and experimentally show that it can be used as a promising baseline method for V2S/S2V face recognition on COX Face DB. Extensive experimental results clearly demonstrate that video-based face recognition needs more efforts, and our COX Face DB is a good benchmark database for evaluation.

  4. Is Video-Based Education an Effective Method in Surgical Education? A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmet, Akgul; Gamze, Kus; Rustem, Mustafaoglu; Sezen, Karaborklu Argut

    2018-02-12

    Visual signs draw more attention during the learning process. Video is one of the most effective tool including a lot of visual cues. This systematic review set out to explore the influence of video in surgical education. We reviewed the current evidence for the video-based surgical education methods, discuss the advantages and disadvantages on the teaching of technical and nontechnical surgical skills. This systematic review was conducted according to the guidelines defined in the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. The electronic databases: the Cochrane Library, Medline (PubMED), and ProQuest were searched from their inception to the 30 January 2016. The Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and keywords used were "video," "education," and "surgery." We analyzed all full-texts, randomised and nonrandomised clinical trials and observational studies including video-based education methods about any surgery. "Education" means a medical resident's or student's training and teaching process; not patients' education. We did not impose restrictions about language or publication date. A total of nine articles which met inclusion criteria were included. These trials enrolled 507 participants and the total number of participants per trial ranged from 10 to 172. Nearly all of the studies reviewed report significant knowledge gain from video-based education techniques. The findings of this systematic review provide fair to good quality studies to demonstrate significant gains in knowledge compared with traditional teaching. Additional video to simulator exercise or 3D animations has beneficial effects on training time, learning duration, acquisition of surgical skills, and trainee's satisfaction. Video-based education has potential for use in surgical education as trainees face significant barriers in their practice. This method is effective according to the recent literature. Video should be used in addition to standard techniques

  5. Two-Stream Transformer Networks for Video-based Face Alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hao; Lu, Jiwen; Feng, Jianjiang; Zhou, Jie

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a two-stream transformer networks (TSTN) approach for video-based face alignment. Unlike conventional image-based face alignment approaches which cannot explicitly model the temporal dependency in videos and motivated by the fact that consistent movements of facial landmarks usually occur across consecutive frames, our TSTN aims to capture the complementary information of both the spatial appearance on still frames and the temporal consistency information across frames. To achieve this, we develop a two-stream architecture, which decomposes the video-based face alignment into spatial and temporal streams accordingly. Specifically, the spatial stream aims to transform the facial image to the landmark positions by preserving the holistic facial shape structure. Accordingly, the temporal stream encodes the video input as active appearance codes, where the temporal consistency information across frames is captured to help shape refinements. Experimental results on the benchmarking video-based face alignment datasets show very competitive performance of our method in comparisons to the state-of-the-arts.

  6. Harnessing the power of personality assessment: subjective assessment predicts behaviour in horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ijichi, Carrie; Collins, Lisa M; Creighton, Emma; Elwood, Robert W

    2013-06-01

    Objective assessment of animal personality is typically time consuming, requiring the repeated measure of behavioural responses. By contrast, subjective assessment of personality allows information to be collected quickly by experienced caregivers. However, subjective assessment must predict behaviour to be valid. Comparisons of subjective assessments and behaviour have been made but often with methodological weaknesses and thus, limited success. Here we test the validity of a subjective assessment against a battery of behaviour tests in 146 horses (Equus caballus). Our first aim was to determine if subjective personality assessment could predict behaviour during behaviour testing. We made specific a priori predictions for how subjectively measured personality should relate to behaviour testing. We found that Extroversion predicted time to complete a handling test and refusal behaviour during this test. It also predicted minimum distance to a novel object. Neuroticism predicted how reactive an individual was to a sudden visual stimulus but not how quickly it recovered from this. Agreeableness did not predict any behaviour during testing. There were several unpredicted correlations between subjective measures and behaviour tests which we explore further. Our second aim was to combine data from the subjective assessment and behaviour tests to gain a more comprehensive understanding of personality. We found that the combination of methods provides new insights into horse behaviour. Furthermore, our data are consistent with the idea of horses showing different coping styles, a novel finding for this species. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Self-Control Assessments and Implications for Predicting Adolescent Offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Adam; Steinberg, Laurence; Frick, Paul J; Cauffman, Elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Although low self-control is consistently related to adolescent offending, it is unknown whether self-report measures or laboratory behavior tasks yield better predictive utility, or if a combination yields incremental predictive power. This is particularly important because developmental theory indicates that self-control is related to adolescent offending and, consequently, risk assessments rely on self-control measures. The present study (a) examines relationships between self-reported self-control on the Weinberger Adjustment Inventory with Go/No-Go response inhibition, and (b) compares the predictive utility of both assessment strategies for short- and long-term adolescent reoffending. It uses longitudinal data from the Crossroads Study of male, first-time adolescent offenders ages 13-17 (N = 930; 46 % Hispanic/Latino, 37 % Black/African-American, 15 % non-Hispanic White, 2 % other race). The results of the study indicate that the measures are largely unrelated, and that the self-report measure is a better indicator of both short- and long-term reoffending. The laboratory task measure does not add value to what is already predicted by the self-report measure. Implications for assessing self-control during adolescence and consequences of assessment strategy are discussed.

  8. Cognitive Neuro-Assessment In Nigerian Africans – Predictive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The neuro-cognitive assessment has evolved from traditional psychometric testing to computerized testing which is able to detect subtle cognitive changes. The objective of this study is to determine the predictive validity of a computerized cognitive test battery, the Iron Psychology (acronym FePsy) among Nigerian Africans ...

  9. Assessing the Accuracy of Prediction Algorithms for Classification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldi, P.; Brunak, Søren; Chauvin, Y.

    2000-01-01

    We provide a unified overview of methods that currently are widely used to assess the accuracy of prediction algorithms, from raw percentages, quadratic error measures and other distances, ann correlation coefficients, and to information theoretic measures such as relative entropy and mutual info...

  10. Coding Scheme for Assessment of Students’ Explanations and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihael Gojkošek

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the process of analyzing students’ explanations and predictions for interaction between brightness enhancement film and beam of white light, a need for objective and reliable assessment instrumentarose. Consequently, we developed a codingscheme that was mostly inspired by the rubrics for self-assessment of scientific abilities. In the paper we present the grading categories that were integrated in the coding scheme, and descriptions of criteria used for evaluation of students work. We report the results of reliability analysis of new assessment tool and present some examples of its application.

  11. Lagrangian Predictive Skill Assessment for the Deepwater Horizon Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipphardt, B. L.; Huntley, H. S.; Sulman, M.; Kirwan, A. D.

    2011-12-01

    The explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform produced enormous human, ecological, and economic impacts. At the same time this disaster provided an unprecedented amount of Lagrangian information on ocean processes, including a large number of surface and near-surface drifters deployed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as remotely sensed images of the surface oil slick. In addition several global and regional ocean model predictions were used to forecast the spill movements. These models generally exhibited large variations in the mesoscale flow near the Deepwater Horizon site, even though they all assimilated similar sets of ocean observations. This provides a unique opportunity to thoroughly assess model Lagrangian predictive skill. Here, the predictive skill of one model, a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), is evaluated using data from more than 80 drifter trajectories in the northern Gulf of Mexico. These trajectories are compared with maps of Lagrangian coherent structures, computed from near-surface model velocities, to determine whether the observations are consistent with the larger scale transport structure predicted by the model. We also discuss new metrics to assess model Lagrangian predictive skill of the plume movement.

  12. Assessment and Prediction of Natural Hazards from Satellite Imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Thomas W; Chu, Jasmine; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan

    2007-10-01

    Since 2000, there have been a number of spaceborne satellites that have changed the way we assess and predict natural hazards. These satellites are able to quantify physical geographic phenomena associated with the movements of the earth's surface (earthquakes, mass movements), water (floods, tsunamis, storms), and fire (wildfires). Most of these satellites contain active or passive sensors that can be utilized by the scientific community for the remote sensing of natural hazards over a number of spatial and temporal scales. The most useful satellite imagery for the assessment of earthquake damage comes from high-resolution (0.6 m to 1 m pixel size) passive sensors and moderate resolution active sensors that can quantify the vertical and horizontal movement of the earth's surface. High-resolution passive sensors have been used to successfully assess flood damage while predictive maps of flood vulnerability areas are possible based on physical variables collected from passive and active sensors. Recent moderate resolution sensors are able to provide near real time data on fires and provide quantitative data used in fire behavior models. Limitations currently exist due to atmospheric interference, pixel resolution, and revisit times. However, a number of new microsatellites and constellations of satellites will be launched in the next five years that contain increased resolution (0.5 m to 1 m pixel resolution for active sensors) and revisit times (daily ≤ 2.5 m resolution images from passive sensors) that will significantly improve our ability to assess and predict natural hazards from space.

  13. Content-aware video quality assessment: predicting human perception of quality using peak signal to noise ratio and spatial/temporal activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz-Jaramillo, B.; Niño-Castañeda, J.; Platiša, L.; Philips, W.

    2015-03-01

    Since the end-user of video-based systems is often a human observer, prediction of human perception of quality (HPoQ) is an important task for increasing the user satisfaction. Despite the large variety of objective video quality measures, one problem is the lack of generalizability. This is mainly due to the strong dependency between HPoQ and video content. Although this problem is well-known, few existing methods directly account for the influence of video content on HPoQ. This paper propose a new method to predict HPoQ by using simple distortion measures and introducing video content features in their computation. Our methodology is based on analyzing the level of spatio-temporal activity and combining HPoQ content related parameters with simple distortion measures. Our results show that even very simple distortion measures such as PSNR and simple spatio-temporal activity measures lead to good results. Results over four different public video quality databases show that the proposed methodology, while faster and simpler, is competitive with current state-of-the-art methods, i.e., correlations between objective and subjective assessment higher than 80% and it is only two times slower than PSNR.

  14. Is a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia as efficacious as a professionally administered treatment in breast cancer? Results of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savard, Josée; Ivers, Hans; Savard, Marie-Hélène; Morin, Charles M

    2014-08-01

    To assess the short-term efficacy of a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) as compared to a professionally administered CBT-I and to a no-treatment group. Randomized controlled trial. Radio-oncology department of a public hospital affiliated with Université Laval (CHU de Québec). Two hundred forty-two women with breast cancer who had received radiation therapy in the past 18 mo and who had insomnia symptoms or were using hypnotic medications were randomized to: (1) professionally administered CBT-I (PCBT-I; n = 81); (2) video-based CBT-I (VCBT-I; n = 80); and (3) no treatment (CTL; n = 81). PCBT-I composed of six weekly, individual sessions of approximately 50 min; VCBT-I composed of a 60-min animated video + six booklets. Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) total score and sleep parameters derived from a daily sleep diary and actigraphy, collected at pretreatment and posttreatment. PCBT-I and VCBT-I were associated with significantly greater sleep improvements, assessed subjectively, as compared to CTL. However, relative to VCBT-I, PCBT-I was associated with significantly greater improvements of insomnia severity, early morning awakenings, depression, fatigue, and dysfunctional beliefs about sleep. The remission rates of insomnia (ISI behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) using a video format appears to be a valuable treatment option, but face-to-face sessions remain the optimal format for administering CBT-I efficaciously in patients with breast cancer. Self-help interventions for insomnia may constitute an appropriate entry level as part of a stepped care model. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00674830. Savard J, Ivers H, Savard MH, Morin CM. Is a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia as efficacious as a professionally administered treatment in breast cancer? Results of a randomized controlled trial.

  15. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee......BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...

  16. Online video-based resistance training improves the physical capacity of junior basketball athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klusemann, Markus J; Pyne, David B; Fay, Tristan S; Drinkwater, Eric J

    2012-10-01

    Junior basketball athletes require a well-designed resistance training program to improve their physical development. Lack of expert supervision and resistance training in junior development pathways may be overcome by implementing an online video-based program. The aim of this study was to compare the magnitude of improvement (change) in physical performance and strength and functional movement patterns of junior basketball athletes using either a fully supervised or an online video-based resistance training program. Thirty-eight junior basketball athletes (males, n = 17; age, 14 ± 1 year; height, 1.79 ± 0.10 m; mass, 67 ± 12 kg; females, n = 21; age, 15 ± 1 year; height, 1.70 ± 0.07 m; mass, 62 ± 8 kg) were randomly assigned into a supervised resistance training group (SG, n = 13), video training group (VG, n = 13) or control group (CG, n = 12) and participated in a 6-week controlled experimental trial. Pre- and posttesting included measures of physical performance (20-m sprint, step-in vertical jump, agility, sit and reach, line drill, and Yo-Yo intermittent recovery level 1), strength (15 s push-up and pull-up), and functional movement screening (FMS). Both SG and VG achieved 3-5% ± 2-4% (mean ± 90% confidence limits) greater improvements in several physical performance measures (vertical jump height, 20-m sprint time, and Yo-Yo endurance performance) and a 28 ± 21% greater improvement in push-up strength compared with the CG. The SG attained substantially larger gains in FMS scores over both the VG (12 ± 10%) and CG (13 ± 8%). Video-based training appears to be a viable option to improve physical performance and strength in junior basketball athletes. Qualified supervision is recommended to improve functional movement patterns in junior athletes.

  17. A video-based system for hand-driven stop-motion animation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xiaoguang; Fu, Hongbo; Zheng, Hanlin; Liu, Ligang; Wang, Jue

    2013-01-01

    Stop-motion is a well-established animation technique but is often laborious and requires craft skills. A new video-based system can animate the vast majority of everyday objects in stop-motion style, more flexibly and intuitively. Animators can perform and capture motions continuously instead of breaking them into increments and shooting one still picture per increment. More important, the system permits direct hand manipulation without resorting to rigs, achieving more natural object control for beginners. The system's key component is two-phase keyframe-based capturing and processing, assisted by computer vision techniques. With this system, even amateurs can generate high-quality stop-motion animations.

  18. Effects of video-based, online education on behavioral and knowledge outcomes in sunscreen use: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, April W; Idriss, Nayla Z; Kim, Randie H

    2011-05-01

    To compare online video and pamphlet education at improving patient comprehension and adherence to sunscreen use, and to assess patient satisfaction with the two educational approaches. In a randomized controlled trial, 94 participants received either online, video-based education or pamphlet-based education that described the importance and proper use of sunscreen. Sun protective knowledge and sunscreen application behaviors were assessed at baseline and 12 weeks after group-specific intervention. Participants in both groups had similar levels of baseline sunscreen knowledge. Post-study analysis revealed significantly greater improvement in the knowledge scores from video group members compared to the pamphlet group (p=0.003). More importantly, video group participants reported greater sunscreen adherence (peducation vehicle more useful and appealing than the pamphlet group (peducational tool for teaching sun protective knowledge and encouraging sunscreen use than written materials. More effective patient educational methods to encourage sun protection activities, such as regular sunscreen use, have the potential to increase awareness and foster positive, preventative health behaviors against skin cancers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. On the proper use of Ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todini, Ezio; Coccia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Enrique

    2015-04-01

    uncertainty of the ensemble mean and that of the ensemble spread. The results of this new approach are illustrated by using data and forecasts from an operational real time flood forecasting. Coccia, G. and Todini, E. 2011. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the Model Conditional Processor approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3253-3274. doi:10.5194/hess-15-3253-2011. Krzysztofowicz, R. 1999 Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2739-2750. Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1155-1174. Reggiani, P., Renner, M., Weerts, A., and van Gelder, P., 2009. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system, Water Resour. Res., 45, W02428, doi:10.1029/2007WR006758. Todini E. 2004. Role and treatment of uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes 18(14), 2743_2746 Todini, E. 2008. A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. Intl. J. River Basin Management, 6(2): 123-137.

  20. Machinima and Video-Based Soft-Skills Training for Frontline Healthcare Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conkey, Curtis A; Bowers, Clint; Cannon-Bowers, Janis; Sanchez, Alicia

    2013-02-01

    Multimedia training methods have traditionally relied heavily on video-based technologies, and significant research has shown these to be very effective training tools. However, production of video is time and resource intensive. Machinima technologies are based on videogaming technology. Machinima technology allows videogame technology to be manipulated into unique scenarios based on entertainment or training and practice applications. Machinima is the converting of these unique scenarios into video vignettes that tell a story. These vignettes can be interconnected with branching points in much the same way that education videos are interconnected as vignettes between decision points. This study addressed the effectiveness of machinima-based soft-skills education using avatar actors versus the traditional video teaching application using human actors in the training of frontline healthcare workers. This research also investigated the difference between presence reactions when using avatar actor-produced video vignettes as compared with human actor-produced video vignettes. Results indicated that the difference in training and/or practice effectiveness is statistically insignificant for presence, interactivity, quality, and the skill of assertiveness. The skill of active listening presented a mixed result indicating the need for careful attention to detail in situations where body language and facial expressions are critical to communication. This study demonstrates that a significant opportunity exists for the exploitation of avatar actors in video-based instruction.

  1. Determining the Onset of Turbulent Flow Using Video Based Motion Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Robert; Lemley, Corey; French, Paul

    2007-04-01

    Recent advancements in computing technology have drastically improved the interface between computers and video equipment, thus allowing for the improvement of video-based motion analysis. However, analysis of video data remains susceptible to errors caused by lens distortion, angular distortion, descaling, and discretization. In previous work, methods were developed to correct for some of these errors. This paper presents several improvements to these corrections, as well as additional methods to increase accuracy, including: 1) improvement of the measurement of lens distortion, 2) automation of the lens distortion correction technique, 3) a simulation method to test the correction of lens distortion error, 4) creation of an algorithm to correct for angular distortion, and 5) refinement of a two camera system to correct for descaling error. The methods were tested in the context of the measurement of the air resistance force on a high-speed projectile. This allowed for the determination of the onset of turbulent flow. These significant improvements in accuracy have made video-based analysis an even more powerful tool for the study of motion.

  2. Video-based real-time on-street parking occupancy detection system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulan, Orhan; Loce, Robert P.; Wu, Wencheng; Wang, YaoRong; Bernal, Edgar A.; Fan, Zhigang

    2013-10-01

    Urban parking management is receiving significant attention due to its potential to reduce traffic congestion, fuel consumption, and emissions. Real-time parking occupancy detection is a critical component of on-street parking management systems, where occupancy information is relayed to drivers via smart phone apps, radio, Internet, on-road signs, or global positioning system auxiliary signals. Video-based parking occupancy detection systems can provide a cost-effective solution to the sensing task while providing additional functionality for traffic law enforcement and surveillance. We present a video-based on-street parking occupancy detection system that can operate in real time. Our system accounts for the inherent challenges that exist in on-street parking settings, including illumination changes, rain, shadows, occlusions, and camera motion. Our method utilizes several components from video processing and computer vision for motion detection, background subtraction, and vehicle detection. We also present three traffic law enforcement applications: parking angle violation detection, parking boundary violation detection, and exclusion zone violation detection, which can be integrated into the parking occupancy cameras as a value-added option. Our experimental results show that the proposed parking occupancy detection method performs in real-time at 5 frames/s and achieves better than 90% detection accuracy across several days of videos captured in a busy street block under various weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy, among others.

  3. Using video-based observation research methods in primary care health encounters to evaluate complex interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onur Asan

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of video-based observation research methods in primary care environment and highlight important methodological considerations and provide practical guidance for primary care and human factors researchers conducting video studies to understand patient–clinician interaction in primary care settings.Methods We reviewed studies in the literature which used video methods in health care research, and we also used our own experience based on the video studies we conducted in primary care settings.Results This paper highlighted the benefits of using video techniques, such as multi-channel recording and video coding, and compared “unmanned” video recording with the traditional observation method in primary care research. We proposed a list that can be followed step by step to conduct an effective video study in a primary care setting for a given problem. This paper also described obstacles, researchers should anticipate when using video recording methods in future studies.Conclusion With the new technological improvements, video-based observation research is becoming a promising method in primary care and HFE research. Video recording has been under-utilised as a data collection tool because of confidentiality and privacy issues. However, it has many benefits as opposed to traditional observations, and recent studies using video recording methods have introduced new research areas and approaches.

  4. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  5. Using video-based observation research methods in primary care health encounters to evaluate complex interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asan, Onur; Montague, Enid

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of video-based observation research methods in primary care environment and highlight important methodological considerations and provide practical guidance for primary care and human factors researchers conducting video studies to understand patient-clinician interaction in primary care settings. We reviewed studies in the literature which used video methods in health care research, and we also used our own experience based on the video studies we conducted in primary care settings. This paper highlighted the benefits of using video techniques, such as multi-channel recording and video coding, and compared "unmanned" video recording with the traditional observation method in primary care research. We proposed a list that can be followed step by step to conduct an effective video study in a primary care setting for a given problem. This paper also described obstacles, researchers should anticipate when using video recording methods in future studies. With the new technological improvements, video-based observation research is becoming a promising method in primary care and HFE research. Video recording has been under-utilised as a data collection tool because of confidentiality and privacy issues. However, it has many benefits as opposed to traditional observations, and recent studies using video recording methods have introduced new research areas and approaches.

  6. Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

  7. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  8. Was that CT? Assessing Computational Thinking Patterns through Video-Based Prompts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Krista Sekeres

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate student understanding and application of computational thinking patterns to novel situations. Over 500 students, who had just designed and programmed a Frogger-style game using the AgentSheets platform, responded to a newly developed video-prompt survey instrument administered in the Fall 2010 semester.…

  9. Using Video-Based Self-Assessment to Develop Effective Conferencing Skills

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Marcia Knoll

    2014-01-01

    .... However, it is the nature of the feedback given to the teacher and how it is delivered, using effective conferencing strategies and techniques, that will actually involve the teacher in understanding...

  10. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) [1] led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this study [2] we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. We do not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but we aim to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for ungauged catchments. [1] Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S., Gupta, V., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., et al. (2003). IAHS decade on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), 2003-2012: shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences. Hydrol. Sci. J. 48, 857-880. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.6.857.51421 [2] van Emmerik, T., Mulder, G., Eilander, D., Piet, M. and Savenije, H. (2015). Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

  11. Face Puzzle – Two new video-based tasks for measuring explicit and implicit aspects of facial emotion recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorit eKliemann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Recognizing others’ emotional states is crucial for effective social interaction. While most facial emotion recognition tasks use explicit prompts that trigger consciously controlled processing, emotional faces are almost exclusively processed implicitly in real life. Recent attempts in social cognition suggest a dual process perspective, whereby explicit and implicit processes largely operate independently. However, due to differences in methodology the direct comparison of implicit and explicit social cognition has remained a challenge.Here, we introduce a new tool to comparably measure implicit and explicit processing aspects comprising basic and complex emotions in facial expressions. We developed two video-based tasks with similar answer formats to assess performance in respective facial emotion recognition processes: Face Puzzle, implicit and explicit. To assess the tasks’ sensitivity to atypical social cognition and to infer interrelationship patterns between explicit and implicit processes in typical and atypical development, we included healthy adults (NT, n= 24 and adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD, n = 24.Item analyses yielded good reliability of the new tasks. Group-specific results indicated sensitivity to subtle social impairments in high-functioning ASD. Correlation analyses with established implicit and explicit socio-cognitive measures were further in favor of the tasks’ external validity. Between group comparisons provide first hints of differential relations between implicit and explicit aspects of facial emotion recognition processes in healthy compared to ASD participants. In addition, an increased magnitude of between group differences in the implicit task was found for a speed-accuracy composite measure. The new Face Puzzle tool thus provides two new tasks to separately assess explicit and implicit social functioning, for instance, to measure subtle impairments as well as potential improvements due to social

  12. Image and video based remote target localization and tracking on smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qia; Lobzhanidze, Alex; Jang, Hyun; Zeng, Wenjun; Shang, Yi; Yang, Jingyu

    2012-06-01

    Smartphones are becoming popular nowadays not only because of its communication functionality but also, more importantly, its powerful sensing and computing capability. In this paper, we describe a novel and accurate image and video based remote target localization and tracking system using the Android smartphones, by leveraging its built-in sensors such as camera, digital compass, GPS, etc. Even though many other distance estimation or localization devices are available, our all-in-one, easy-to-use localization and tracking system on low cost and commodity smartphones is first of its kind. Furthermore, smartphones' exclusive user-friendly interface has been effectively taken advantage of by our system to facilitate low complexity and high accuracy. Our experimental results show that our system works accurately and efficiently.

  13. Analysis of Video-Based Microscopic Particle Trajectories Using Kalman Filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Pei-Hsun; Agarwal, Ashutosh; Hess, Henry; Khargonekar, Pramod P.; Tseng, Yiider

    2010-01-01

    Abstract The fidelity of the trajectories obtained from video-based particle tracking determines the success of a variety of biophysical techniques, including in situ single cell particle tracking and in vitro motility assays. However, the image acquisition process is complicated by system noise, which causes positioning error in the trajectories derived from image analysis. Here, we explore the possibility of reducing the positioning error by the application of a Kalman filter, a powerful algorithm to estimate the state of a linear dynamic system from noisy measurements. We show that the optimal Kalman filter parameters can be determined in an appropriate experimental setting, and that the Kalman filter can markedly reduce the positioning error while retaining the intrinsic fluctuations of the dynamic process. We believe the Kalman filter can potentially serve as a powerful tool to infer a trajectory of ultra-high fidelity from noisy images, revealing the details of dynamic cellular processes. PMID:20550894

  14. A TBB-CUDA Implementation for Background Removal in a Video-Based Fire Detection System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel TBB-CUDA implementation for the acceleration of single-Gaussian distribution model, which is effective for background removal in the video-based fire detection system. In this framework, TBB mainly deals with initializing work of the estimated Gaussian model running on CPU, and CUDA performs background removal and adaption of the model running on GPU. This implementation can exploit the combined computation power of TBB-CUDA, which can be applied to the real-time environment. Over 220 video sequences are utilized in the experiments. The experimental results illustrate that TBB+CUDA can achieve a higher speedup than both TBB and CUDA. The proposed framework can effectively overcome the disadvantages of limited memory bandwidth and few execution units of CPU, and it reduces data transfer latency and memory latency between CPU and GPU.

  15. Temporal and spatial information extraction from videos based on the change in length of the shadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiayun; Zu, Jian; Wang, Likang

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, considering the atmospheric refractive index, we present an approach to extract the recording date and geo-location from videos, based on the alteration of the shadow length. The paper carefully takes different information (photographed date, the length of the selected object) of the given video into consideration and forms a comprehensive approach to extract the temporal and spatial information of the given video. On the basis of this approach, we analyze the shadow length data of a chosen object from a real video and extract the temporal and spatial information of the video. Compared with the actual information, the error is less than 1%, which proves the validity of our approach.

  16. Assessing predicted HIV-1 replicative capacity in a clinical setting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger D Kouyos

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available HIV-1 replicative capacity (RC provides a measure of within-host fitness and is determined in the context of phenotypic drug resistance testing. However it is unclear how these in-vitro measurements relate to in-vivo processes. Here we assess RCs in a clinical setting by combining a previously published machine-learning tool, which predicts RC values from partial pol sequences with genotypic and clinical data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The machine-learning tool is based on a training set consisting of 65000 RC measurements paired with their corresponding partial pol sequences. We find that predicted RC values (pRCs correlate significantly with the virus load measured in 2073 infected but drug naïve individuals. Furthermore, we find that, for 53 pairs of sequences, each pair sampled in the same infected individual, the pRC was significantly higher for the sequence sampled later in the infection and that the increase in pRC was also significantly correlated with the increase in plasma viral load and with the length of the time-interval between the sampling points. These findings indicate that selection within a patient favors the evolution of higher replicative capacities and that these in-vitro fitness measures are indicative of in-vivo HIV virus load.

  17. Predicting work Performance through selection interview ratings and Psychological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liziwe Nzama

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to establish whether selection interviews used in conjunction with psychological assessments of personality traits and cognitive functioning contribute to predicting work performance. The sample consisted of 102 managers who were appointed recently in a retail organisation. The independent variables were selection interview ratings obtained on the basis of structured competency-based interview schedules by interviewing panels, fve broad dimensions of personality defned by the Five Factor Model as measured by the 15 Factor Questionnaire (15FQ+, and cognitive processing variables (current level of work, potential level of work, and 12 processing competencies measured by the Cognitive Process Profle (CPP. Work performance was measured through annual performance ratings that focused on measurable outputs of performance objectives. Only two predictor variables correlated statistically signifcantly with the criterion variable, namely interview ratings (r = 0.31 and CPP Verbal Abstraction (r = 0.34. Following multiple regression, only these variables contributed signifcantly to predicting work performance, but only 17.8% of the variance of the criterion was accounted for.

  18. Assessment of simulation predictions of hydrocarbon pool fire tests.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luketa-Hanlin, Anay Josephine

    2010-04-01

    An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis is performed on the fuel regression rate model within SIERRA/Fuego by comparing to a series of hydrocarbon tests performed in the Thermal Test Complex. The fuels used for comparison for the fuel regression rate model include methanol, ethanol, JP8, and heptane. The recently implemented flamelet combustion model is also assessed with a limited comparison to data involving measurements of temperature and relative mole fractions within a 2-m diameter methanol pool fire. The comparison of the current fuel regression rate model to data without UQ indicates that the model over predicts the fuel regression rate by 65% for methanol, 63% for ethanol, 95% for JP8, and 15% for heptane. If a UQ analysis is performed incorporating a range of values for transmittance, reflectance, and heat flux at the surface the current model predicts fuel regression rates within 50% of measured values. An alternative model which uses specific heats at inlet and boiling temperatures respectively and does not approximate the sensible heat is also compared to data. The alternative model with UQ significantly improves the comparison to within 25% for all fuels except heptane. Even though the proposed alternative model provides better agreement to data, particularly for JP8 and ethanol (within 15%), there are still outstanding issues regarding significant uncertainties which include heat flux gauge measurement and placement, boiling at the fuel surface, large scale convective motion within the liquid, and semi-transparent behavior.

  19. [Is the suicidal risk assessment scale RSD of predictive value?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducher, J L; Terra, J L

    2006-10-01

    the efficacy of fluvoxamine in reducing the risk of recurrence of depression over 18 months, appears of particular interest. In this multicentre study, patients of both sexes were included, aged between 18 and 70 years, presenting a major depressive episode with a MADRS equal to a minimum of 25, and having had a minimum of two episodes of major depression within the last five years. The resulting analysis carried out on 103 patients showed a satisfactory concurrent validity between the suicidal risk assessment scale RSD and the items "suicide" of the MADRS (rho=0.79; p=0.0001) and the Hamilton Depression Scale (rho=0.70; p=0.0001), and fairly satisfactory concurrent validity with the depression degree assessed by the MADRS overall score (rho=0.40; p=0.0001). The short-term follow-up under treatment revealed enhanced sensitivity of the RSD versus the MADRS. The improvement in suicidal risk, assessed by the RSD, was faster than the improvement in depression, which is interesting from a clinical point of view. The medium-term follow-up tested the predictive validity of RSD and confirmed a greater level of suicidal risk from a score of 7 on the RSD, with the death by suicide of 2 subjects among the 15 who exhibited a score between 7 and 10 on the RSD on inclusion. On the other hand, no acting out, no attempted suicides, and no suicides were noted in the group of 88 subjects whose RSD was lower or equal to 6 on inclusion (p=0.02 using Fisher's exact test). Thus, the RSD appears of interest, from a clinical point of view, by providing a -diagnostic, or a scientific approach.

  20. Subjective global assessment: a reliable nutritional assessment tool to predict outcomes in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontes, Daniel; Generoso, Simone de Vasconcelos; Toulson Davisson Correia, Maria Isabel

    2014-04-01

    Nutritional assessment of critically ill patients has created controversy. However, it is well established that malnourished patients who are severely ill have worse outcomes than well-nourished patients. Therefore, assessing patients' nutritional status may be useful in predicting which patients may experience increased morbidity and mortality. One hundred eighty-five consecutively admitted patients were followed until discharge or death, and their nutritional status was evaluated using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) as well as anthropometric and laboratory methods. Agreement between the methods was measured using the Kappa coefficient. Malnutrition was highly prevalent (54%), according to SGA. Malnourished patients had significantly higher rates of readmission to the intensive care unit (ICU) (OR 2.27; CI 1.08-4.80) and mortality (OR 8.12; CI 2.94-22.42). The comparison of SGA with other tests used to assess nutritional status showed that the correlation between the methods ranged from poor to superficial. SGA, an inexpensive and quick nutritional assessment method conducted at the bedside, is a reliable tool for predicting outcomes in critically ill patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  1. The Effect of Video-Based Tasks in Listening Comprehension of Iranian Pre-Intermediate EFL Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarani, Abdullah; Behtash, Esmail Zare; Nezhad Arani, Saieed Moslemi

    2014-01-01

    This study aims at finding the effect of video-based tasks in improving the listening comprehension ability of Iranian pre-intermediate EFL (English Foreign Language) learners. After determining the level of learners, an experimental and control group, each of 20 participants, were nominated to contribute to the study. From the time the pre-test…

  2. Keeping Kids Safe from a Design Perspective: Ethical and Legal Guidelines for Designing a Video-Based App for Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zydney, Janet Mannheimer; Hooper, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Educators can use video to gain invaluable information about their students. A concern is that collecting videos online can create an increased security risk for children. The purpose of this article is to provide ethical and legal guidelines for designing video-based apps for mobile devices and the web. By reviewing the literature, law, and code…

  3. Including Students' Diverse Perspectives on Classroom Interactions into Video-Based Professional Development for Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogler, Anna-Marietha; Prediger, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Video is often used in professional development courses to sensitize mathematics teachers to students' thinking and issues of classroom interaction. This article presents an approach that incorporates students' perspectives on mathematics classroom interactions into video-based professional development in order to enhance teachers' reflection on…

  4. Investigating Students' Use and Adoption of "With-Video Assignments": Lessons Learnt for Video-Based Open Educational Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Ilias O.; Giannakos, Michail N.; Mikalef, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The use of video-based open educational resources is widespread, and includes multiple approaches to implementation. In this paper, the term "with-video assignments" is introduced to portray video learning resources enhanced with assignments. The goal of this study is to examine the factors that influence students' intention to adopt…

  5. In-person and video-based post-traumatic stress disorder treatment for veterans: a location-allocation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musdal, Hande; Shiner, Brian; Chen, Techieh; Ceyhan, Mehmet E; Watts, Bradley V; Benneyan, James

    2014-02-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with poor health but there is a gap between need and receipt of care. It is useful to understand where to optimally locate in-person care and where video-based PTSD care would be most useful to minimize access to care barriers, care outside the Veterans Affairs system, and total costs. We developed a service location systems engineering model based on 2010 to 2020 projected care needs for veterans across New England to help determine where to best locate and use in-person and video-based care. This analysis determined specific locations and capacities of each type of PTSD care relative to patient home locations to help inform allocation of mental health resources. Not surprisingly Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are well suited for in-person care, whereas some rural areas of Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire where in-patient services are infeasible could be better served by video-based care than external care, if the latter is even available. Results in New England alone suggest a potential $3,655,387 reduction in average annual total costs by shifting 9.73% of care to video-based treatment, with an average 12.6 miles travel distance for the remaining in-person care. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  6. Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Sienz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Retrospective prediction experiments have to be performed to estimate the skill of decadal prediction systems. These are necessarily restricted in the number due to the computational constraints. From weather and seasonal prediction it is known that the ensemble size is crucial to yield reliable predictions. Differences are expected for decadal predictions due to the differing time-scales of the involved processes and the longer prediction horizon. A conceptual model is applied that enables the systematic analysis of ensemble size dependencies in a framework close to that of decadal predictions. Differences are quantified in terms of the confidence intervals coverage and the power of statistical tests for prediction scores. In addition, the concepts are applied to decadal predicitions of the MiKlip Baseline1 system. It is shown that small ensemble, as well as hindcast sample sizes lead to biased test performances in a way that the detection of a present prediction skill is hampered. Experiments with ensemble sizes smaller than 10 are not recommended to evaluate decadal prediction skill or as basis for the prediction system developement. For regions with low signal-to-noise ratios much larger ensembles are required and it is shown that in this case successful decadal predictions are possible for the Central European summer temperatures.

  7. Assessing the performance of DNA barcoding using posterior predictive simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barley, Anthony J; Thomson, Robert C

    2016-05-01

    Accurate estimates of biodiversity are required for research in a broad array of biological subdisciplines including ecology, evolution, systematics, conservation and biodiversity science. The use of statistical models and genetic data, particularly DNA barcoding, has been suggested as an important tool for remedying the large gaps in our current understanding of biodiversity. However, the reliability of biodiversity estimates obtained using these approaches depends on how well the statistical models that are used describe the evolutionary process underlying the genetic data. In this study, we utilize data from the Barcode of Life Database and posterior predictive simulations to assess the performance of DNA barcoding under commonly used substitution models. We demonstrate that the success of DNA barcoding varies widely across DNA substitution models and that model choice has a substantial impact on the number of operational taxonomic units identified (changing results by ~4-31%). Additionally, we demonstrate that the widely followed practice of a priori assuming the Kimura 2-parameter model for DNA barcoding is statistically unjustified and should be avoided. Using both data-based and inference-based test statistics, we detect variation in model performance across taxonomic groups, clustering algorithms, genetic divergence thresholds and substitution models. Taken together, these results illustrate the importance of considering both model selection and model adequacy in studies quantifying biodiversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The Role of Focus Group Venue: A Comparative Study of Face-to-Face, Telephone, and Internet Video-Based Venues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gothberg, June E.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the equivalence or non-inferiority for comparisons of telephone focus group venue to face-to-face focus group venue, Internet video-based focus group venue to face-to-face focus group venue, and Internet video-based focus group venue to telephone focus group venue. Research questions examined the…

  9. Using learning analytics to evaluate a video-based lecture series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K H Vincent; Farooque, Pue; Leydon, Gary; Schwartz, Michael L; Sadler, R Mark; Moeller, Jeremy J

    2018-01-01

    The video-based lecture (VBL), an important component of the flipped classroom (FC) and massive open online course (MOOC) approaches to medical education, has primarily been evaluated through direct learner feedback. Evaluation may be enhanced through learner analytics (LA) - analysis of quantitative audience usage data generated by video-sharing platforms. We applied LA to an experimental series of ten VBLs on electroencephalography (EEG) interpretation, uploaded to YouTube in the model of a publicly accessible MOOC. Trends in view count; total percentage of video viewed and audience retention (AR) (percentage of viewers watching at a time point compared to the initial total) were examined. The pattern of average AR decline was characterized using regression analysis, revealing a uniform linear decline in viewership for each video, with no evidence of an optimal VBL length. Segments with transient increases in AR corresponded to those focused on core concepts, indicative of content requiring more detailed evaluation. We propose a model for applying LA at four levels: global, series, video, and feedback. LA may be a useful tool in evaluating a VBL series. Our proposed model combines analytics data and learner self-report for comprehensive evaluation.

  10. Improving Secondary School Students' Achievement and Retention in Biology Through Video-based Multimedia Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amosa Isiaka Gambari, PhD

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the effects of video-based multimedia instruction on secondary school students' achievement and retention in biology. In Nigeria, 120 students (60 boys and 60 girls were randomly selected from four secondary schools assigned either into one of three experimental groups: Animation + Narration; Animation + On-screen Text; Animation + Narration + On-screen Text or a control group. The pretest, posttest experimental, and control group design was adopted. A 50-item multiple-choice objective test termed Biology Achievement Test (BAT was used for collecting data. The validated BAT was tested for reliability using Kuder Richardson (KR20, which yielded 0.89. T-test, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA, and Scheffe’s post-hoc analysis were used in determining the significant differences among the four groups. The results showed that there was no statistically significant difference among the experimental groups. Generally, students under multimedia instruction performed better than their colleagues in the conventional teaching method. However, students in conventional teaching method had better retention than other groups.

  11. Evaluation of a video-based head motion tracking system for dedicated brain PET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, S.; Beylin, D.; Stepanov, P.; Stepanov, A.; Weinberg, I. N.; Schaeffer, S.; Zavarzin, V.; Shaposhnikov, D.; Smith, M. F.

    2015-03-01

    Unintentional head motion during Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data acquisition can degrade PET image quality and lead to artifacts. Poor patient compliance, head tremor, and coughing are examples of movement sources. Head motion due to patient non-compliance can be an issue with the rise of amyloid brain PET in dementia patients. To preserve PET image resolution and quantitative accuracy, head motion can be tracked and corrected in the image reconstruction algorithm. While fiducial markers can be used, a contactless approach is preferable. A video-based head motion tracking system for a dedicated portable brain PET scanner was developed. Four wide-angle cameras organized in two stereo pairs are used for capturing video of the patient's head during the PET data acquisition. Facial points are automatically tracked and used to determine the six degree of freedom head pose as a function of time. The presented work evaluated the newly designed tracking system using a head phantom and a moving American College of Radiology (ACR) phantom. The mean video-tracking error was 0.99±0.90 mm relative to the magnetic tracking device used as ground truth. Qualitative evaluation with the ACR phantom shows the advantage of the motion tracking application. The developed system is able to perform tracking with accuracy close to millimeter and can help to preserve resolution of brain PET images in presence of movements.

  12. A Video-Based Module for Teaching Communication Skills to Otolaryngology Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patki, Aniruddha; Puscas, Liana

    2015-01-01

    To determine whether instructional videos modeling examples of "good" and "bad" patient communication skills are useful as an educational tool for improving resident-patient communication. Retrospective study in which resident participants in the module gave survey responses indicating perceived utility of the exercise. Tertiary academic medical center. A total of 11 otolaryngology trainees from postgraduate year 1-5 who attended the course over 2 separate sessions and provided feedback on the benefits of the module. All 11 residents attended both sessions. Of 22 total survey responses, 21 found that the videos were "realistic and engaging" and were a true representation of commonly encountered clinical scenarios. Residents identified multiple themes and behaviors distinguishing "good" vs "bad" communication with patients and felt they could incorporate these into daily practice. A perceived weakness was the lack of opportunity for "role playing" with a video-based module as opposed to standardized patients. Instructional videos, when realistic, are useful for modeling effective patient communication skills for residents. By watching the videos, residents are able to identify specific techniques they can incorporate into their daily practice. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A prospective video-based analysis of injury situations in elite male football: football incident analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnason, Arni; Tenga, Albin; Engebretsen, Lars; Bahr, Roald

    2004-09-01

    The mechanisms for football injuries are largely unknown. To describe the characteristics of injury situations in elite male football using a video-based method called football incident analysis. Prospective cohort study. During the 1999 season, videotapes from 52 matches in the Icelandic elite football league were reviewed. Incidents (N = 95) were recorded when the match was interrupted by the referee because of a suspected injury. Team physical therapists recorded injuries prospectively (N = 28 time-loss injuries). Duels caused 84 of the incidents, mostly tackling duels (n = 54). The exposed player's attention appeared to be focused away from the opponent in 93% of the cases. The 3 main mechanisms observed were (1) breakdown attacks, tackling from the side or the front, attention focused on the ball (24%); (2) defensive tackling duels, attention focused on the ball or low ball control (20%); and (3) heading duels, attention focused on the ball in the air (13%). Most incidents and injuries occurred during breakdown attacks and when a player was involved in tackling duels. Player attention appeared to be focused mainly on the ball, not on the opponent challenging him to gain ball possession.

  14. Simplified Predictive Models for CO2 Sequestration Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Srikanta; RaviGanesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; Mooney, Douglas; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2014-05-01

    We present results from an ongoing research project that seeks to develop and validate a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The overall research goal is to provide tools for predicting: (a) injection well and formation pressure buildup, and (b) lateral and vertical CO2 plume migration. Simplified modeling approaches that are being developed in this research fall under three categories: (1) Simplified physics-based modeling (SPM), where only the most relevant physical processes are modeled, (2) Statistical-learning based modeling (SLM), where the simulator is replaced with a "response surface", and (3) Reduced-order method based modeling (RMM), where mathematical approximations reduce the computational burden. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. In the first category (SPM), we use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. In the second category (SLM), we develop statistical "proxy models" using the simulation domain described previously with two different approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface fit, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a Kriging metamodel fit using a quadratic trend and Gaussian correlation structure. For roughly the same number of

  15. An assessment on epitope prediction methods for protozoa genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Resende Daniela M

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epitope prediction using computational methods represents one of the most promising approaches to vaccine development. Reduction of time, cost, and the availability of completely sequenced genomes are key points and highly motivating regarding the use of reverse vaccinology. Parasites of genus Leishmania are widely spread and they are the etiologic agents of leishmaniasis. Currently, there is no efficient vaccine against this pathogen and the drug treatment is highly toxic. The lack of sufficiently large datasets of experimentally validated parasites epitopes represents a serious limitation, especially for trypanomatids genomes. In this work we highlight the predictive performances of several algorithms that were evaluated through the development of a MySQL database built with the purpose of: a evaluating individual algorithms prediction performances and their combination for CD8+ T cell epitopes, B-cell epitopes and subcellular localization by means of AUC (Area Under Curve performance and a threshold dependent method that employs a confusion matrix; b integrating data from experimentally validated and in silico predicted epitopes; and c integrating the subcellular localization predictions and experimental data. NetCTL, NetMHC, BepiPred, BCPred12, and AAP12 algorithms were used for in silico epitope prediction and WoLF PSORT, Sigcleave and TargetP for in silico subcellular localization prediction against trypanosomatid genomes. Results A database-driven epitope prediction method was developed with built-in functions that were capable of: a removing experimental data redundancy; b parsing algorithms predictions and storage experimental validated and predict data; and c evaluating algorithm performances. Results show that a better performance is achieved when the combined prediction is considered. This is particularly true for B cell epitope predictors, where the combined prediction of AAP12 and BCPred12 reached an AUC value

  16. The IntFOLD server: an integrated web resource for protein fold recognition, 3D model quality assessment, intrinsic disorder prediction, domain prediction and ligand binding site prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Daniel B; Buenavista, Maria T; Tetchner, Stuart J; McGuffin, Liam J

    2011-07-01

    The IntFOLD server is a novel independent server that integrates several cutting edge methods for the prediction of structure and function from sequence. Our guiding principles behind the server development were as follows: (i) to provide a simple unified resource that makes our prediction software accessible to all and (ii) to produce integrated output for predictions that can be easily interpreted. The output for predictions is presented as a simple table that summarizes all results graphically via plots and annotated 3D models. The raw machine readable data files for each set of predictions are also provided for developers, which comply with the Critical Assessment of Methods for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) data standards. The server comprises an integrated suite of five novel methods: nFOLD4, for tertiary structure prediction; ModFOLD 3.0, for model quality assessment; DISOclust 2.0, for disorder prediction; DomFOLD 2.0 for domain prediction; and FunFOLD 1.0, for ligand binding site prediction. Predictions from the IntFOLD server were found to be competitive in several categories in the recent CASP9 experiment. The IntFOLD server is available at the following web site: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/.

  17. Assessing the Predictability of Scheduled-Vehicle Travel Times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiesyte, Dalia; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    One of the most desired and challenging services in collective transport systems is the real-time prediction of the near-future travel times of scheduled vehicles, especially public buses, thus improving the experience of the transportation users, who may be able to better schedule their travel......, and also enabling system operators to perform real-time monitoring. While travel-time prediction has been researched extensively during the past decade, the accuracies of existing techniques fall short of what is desired, and proposed mathematical prediction models are often not transferable to other...... systems because the properties of the travel-time-related data of vehicles are highly context-dependent, making the models difficult to fit. We propose a framework for evaluating various predictability types of the data independently of the model, and we also compare predictability analysis results...

  18. Video-Based Learning vs Traditional Lecture for Instructing Emergency Medicine Residents in Disaster Medicine Principles of Mass Triage, Decontamination, and Personal Protective Equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Henry A; Trang, Karen; Chason, Kevin W; Biddinger, Paul D

    2018-01-10

    Introduction Great demands have been placed on disaster medicine educators. There is a need to develop innovative methods to educate Emergency Physicians in the ever-expanding body of disaster medicine knowledge. The authors sought to demonstrate that video-based learning (VBL) could be a promising alternative to traditional learning methods for teaching disaster medicine core competencies. Hypothesis/Problem The objective was to compare VBL to traditional lecture (TL) for instructing Emergency Medicine residents in the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP; Irving, Texas USA) disaster medicine core competencies of patient triage and decontamination. A randomized, controlled pilot study compared two methods of instruction for mass triage, decontamination, and personal protective equipment (PPE). Emergency Medicine resident learning was measured with a knowledge quiz, a Likert scale measuring comfort, and a practical exercise. An independent samples t-test compared the scoring of the VBL with the TL group. Twenty-six residents were randomized to VBL (n=13) or TL (n=13). Knowledge score improvement following video (14.9%) versus lecture (14.1%) did not differ significantly between the groups (P=.74). Comfort score improvement also did not differ (P=.64) between video (18.3%) and lecture groups (15.8%). In the practical skills assessment, the VBL group outperformed the TL group overall (70.4% vs 55.5%; PMedicine residents in the ACEP disaster medicine core competencies of patient triage and decontamination. Curtis HA , Trang K , Chason KW , Biddinger PD . Video-based learning vs traditional lecture for instructing emergency medicine residents in disaster medicine principles of mass triage, decontamination, and personal protective equipment.

  19. Predicting unit performance by assessing transformational and transactional leadership.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, Bernard M; Avolio, Bruce J; Jung, Dong I; Berson, Yair

    2003-04-01

    How do leadership ratings collected from units operating under stable conditions predict subsequent performance of those units operating under high stress and uncertainty? To examine this question, the authors calculated the predictive relationships for the transformational and transactional leadership of 72 light infantry rifle platoon leaders for ratings of unit potency, cohesion, and performance for U.S. Army platoons participating in combat simulation exercises. Both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership ratings of platoon leaders and sergeants positively predicted unit performance. The relationship of platoon leadership to performance was partially mediated through the unit's level of potency and cohesion. Implications, limitations, and future directions for leadership research are discussed.

  20. Developing model-making and model-breaking skills using direct measurement video-based activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonk, Matthew; Bohacek, Peter; Militello, Cheryl; Iverson, Ellen

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on student development of two important laboratory skills in the context of introductory college-level physics. The first skill, which we call model making, is the ability to analyze a phenomenon in a way that produces a quantitative multimodal model. The second skill, which we call model breaking, is the ability to critically evaluate if the behavior of a system is consistent with a given model. This study involved 116 introductory physics students in four different sections, each taught by a different instructor. All of the students within a given class section participated in the same instruction (including labs) with the exception of five activities performed throughout the semester. For those five activities, each class section was split into two groups; one group was scaffolded to focus on model-making skills and the other was scaffolded to focus on model-breaking skills. Both conditions involved direct measurement videos. In some cases, students could vary important experimental parameters within the video like mass, frequency, and tension. Data collected at the end of the semester indicate that students in the model-making treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-making skill despite the fact that both groups shared a common physical lab experience. Likewise, the model-breaking treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-breaking skill. This is important because it shows that direct measurement video-based instruction can help students acquire science-process skills, which are critical for scientists, and which are a key part of current science education approaches such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Advanced Placement Physics 1 course.

  1. Use of Geochemical Indices in Environmental Assessment of Soil; the Predictable and the Predictably Unpredictable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikkonen, Hannah; Clarke, Bradley; van de Graaff, Robert; Reichman, Suzie

    2016-04-01

    Geochemical correlations between common contaminants (Pb, Ni, As, Cr, Co and Zn) and earth metals, Fe and Mn, have been recommended as empirical tools to estimate "background" concentrations of metals in soil. A limited number of studies indicate that geochemical ratios between Pb, Ni, As, Cr, Co, V and Zn with scavenger metals Fe or Mn, are consistent between soils collected from different regions (Hamon et al. 2004, Myers and Thorbjornsen 2004). These studies have resulted in the incorporation of geochemical indices into Australian guidance, for derivation of ecological investigation levels for Ni, Cr, Cu and Zn. However, little research has been undertaken to assess the variation of geochemical patterns between soils derived from different parent materials or different weathering environments. A survey of background soils derived from four different parent materials, across Victoria, Australia, was undertaken, comprising collection of samples (n=640) from the surface (0 to 0.1 m) and sub-surface (0.3 to 0.6 m). Soil samples were collected from urban and rural areas of low disturbance, away from point sources of contamination. Samples were analysed for metals/metalloids and soil physical and chemical properties. Statistical review of results included regression and multivariate analysis. The results of the soil survey were compared against geochemical relationships reported within Australia and internationally. Compilation of results from this study and international data sets, indicates that geochemical relationships for metals Cr and V (in the format of log[Cr] = alog[Fe] +c) are predictable, not only between soils derived from different parent materials, but also between soils of different continents. Conversely, relationships between Zn and Fe, Pb and Fe, Cu and Fe, Co and Mn are variable, particularly within soils derived from alluvial sediments, which may have undergone periods of reducing conditions, resulting in dissociation from metal oxides. Broad

  2. Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried

    2011-01-01

    Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

  3. Student Teachers' Modeling of Acceleration Using a Video-Based Laboratory in Physics Education: A Multimodal Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Trudel

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory study intends to model kinematics learning of a pair of student teachers when exposed to prescribed teaching strategies in a video-based laboratory. Two student teachers were chosen from the Francophone B.Ed. program of the Faculty of Education of a Canadian university. The study method consisted of having the participants interact with a video-based laboratory to complete two activities for learning properties of acceleration in rectilinear motion. Time limits were placed on the learning activities during which the researcher collected detailed multimodal information from the student teachers' answers to questions, the graphs they produced from experimental data, and the videos taken during the learning sessions. As a result, we describe the learning approach each one followed, the evidence of conceptual change and the difficulties they face in tackling various aspects of the accelerated motion. We then specify advantages and limits of our research and propose recommendations for further study.

  4. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  5. Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2016-08-09

    Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. Copyright © 2016 Xavie et al.

  6. Preparing the foundations for video-based practice-placement support: establishing the role from a students’ perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Teri

    2012-01-01

    Currently, many placement-based health programme students within the UK are supported through face-to-face visits from university staff. Whilst cited in literature as being of value, the face-to-face nature of this contact is not supported. Alternatives including video-based communications methods offer the potential for cost effective, environmentally responsible support. However, in order to establish the fitness for purpose of alternative approaches, the content and purpose of current supp...

  7. Video-based feedback combined with reflective enquiry – An interactive model for movement awareness among nursing students

    OpenAIRE

    Sofia Backåberg; Mikael Rask; Christina Gummesson; David Brunt

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to describe an interactive model developed for movement awareness in a practical learning situation and to explore the use of video-based digital feedback and reflective enquiry in this model among nursing students. Sixteen students participated in individual interactive video sessions with a facilitator, who encouraged the students to reflect upon their own movements. Qualitative analysis showed that movement patterns were visualized, and that movement awareness and ...

  8. Predicting personal preferences in subjective video quality assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Jari

    2017-01-01

    the characteristics of each test sample are represented by a set of parameters, and the individual preferences are represented by weights for the parameters. According to the validation experiment performed on public visual quality databases annotated with raw individual scores, the proposed model can predict......In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the visual quality of a specific test sample (e.g. a video clip) experienced by a specific user, based on the ratings by other users for the same sample and the same user for other samples. A simple linear model and algorithm is presented, where...

  9. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  10. Predicting responsiveness to intervention in dyslexia using dynamic assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aravena, S.; Tijms, J.; Snellings, P.; van der Molen, M.W.

    In the current study we examined the value of a dynamic test for predicting responsiveness to reading intervention for children diagnosedwith dyslexia. The test consisted of a 20-minute training aimed at learning eight basic letter–speech sound correspondences within an artificial orthography,

  11. Assessment of PANC3 Score in Predicting Severity of Acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is inflammatory process of the pancreas associated with local and systemic complications. At present, there are lots of scores (such as Ransons, APACHE II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis) that help us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming ...

  12. Video-based self-review: comparing Google Glass and GoPro technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paro, John A M; Nazareli, Rahim; Gurjala, Anadev; Berger, Aaron; Lee, Gordon K

    2015-05-01

    Professionals in a variety of specialties use video-based review as a method of constant self-evaluation. We believe critical self-reflection will allow a surgical trainee to identify methods for improvement throughout residency and beyond. We have used 2 new popular technologies to evaluate their role in accomplishing the previously mentioned objectives. Our group investigated Google Glass and GoPro cameras. Medical students, residents, and faculty were invited to wear each of the devices during a scheduled operation. After the case, each participant was asked to comment on a number of features of the device including comfort, level of distraction/interference with operating, ease of video acquisition, and battery life. Software and hardware specifications were compiled and compared by the authors. A "proof-of-concept" was also performed using the video-conferencing abilities of Google Glass to perform a simulated flap check. The technical specifications of the 2 cameras favor GoPro over Google Glass. Glass records in 720p with 5-MP still shots, and the GoPro records in 1080p with 12-MP still shots. Our tests of battery life showed more than 2 hours of continuous video with GoPro, and less than 1 hour for Glass. Favorable features of Google Glass included comfort and relative ease of use; they could not comfortably wear loupes while operating, and would have preferred longer hands-free video recording. The GoPro was slightly more cumbersome and required a nonsterile team member to activate all pictures or video; however, loupes could be worn. Google Glass was successfully used in the hospital for a simulated flap check, with overall audio and video being transmitted--fine detail was lost, however. There are benefits and limitations to each of the devices tested. Google Glass is in its infancy and may gain a larger intraoperative role in the future. We plan to use Glass as a way for trainees to easily acquire intraoperative footage as a means to "review tape" and

  13. Risk assessment strategy for prediction of pathological hyperbilirubinemia in neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Deepak; Jain, Suksham; Dhir, Shashikant; Rani, Shikha

    2012-02-01

    To evaluate combined ability of clinical risk factors and transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) in predicting pathological hyperbilirubinemia (PHB) needing treatment during first week of life in healthy term and late preterm neonates. This prospective cohort study included healthy neonates with gestation ≥35 wk and birth weight ≥2000 g. TcB was measured with a multi-wavelength transcutaneous bilirubinometer (Bilichek®) at 30 ± 12 h of postnatal age. Follow-up was conducted as per American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines. For diagnosis of PHB, TcB was measured at each follow-up visit. Serum bilirubin was measured if TcB was >15 mg/dL or within 2 mg/dL of phototherapy cut-off. Among 462 neonates [birth weight (g; mean ± SD): 2711 ± 431, gestation (wk; median, IQR): 38 (37-39), male: 52%] enrolled in the study, 392 (84.9%) completed followup and PHB was observed in 65 (16.6%) neonates. Discriminant ability of risk model, including both clinical risk factors and TcB, was better than the risk models with clinical risk factors or TcB alone (c-statistic: 0.86 vs. 0.74 vs. 0.77). On logistic regression analysis risk factors found significant were TcB (OR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.4-1.9), gestation at birth (OR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.50-0.77) and primiparity (OR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.1-3.9). A risk prediction score was developed with these three risk factors as ordinal/dichotomous variables. Negative and positive predictive values for score 12 were 97% and 46%, respectively. Risk score consisting of TcB, gestation at birth and parity status was able to accurately predict pathological hyperbilirubinemia in derivation cohort of healthy term and late preterm north Indian neonates.

  14. An assessment of prediction tools to Norwegian debris flows

    OpenAIRE

    Frekhaug, Martine Holm

    2015-01-01

    The occurrence of debris flows in Norway is a challenge to settlement and infrastructure. Due to a high mobility, that causes long run-outs, they can lead to severe damages. This constitute a large cost to the Norwegian Water and Energy Directorate (NWED), the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) and the Norwegian National Rail Administration (NNRA). A predicted increase in precipitation during this century will most likely increase the frequency of debris flows. Thus, the need for ac...

  15. Using General Outcome Measures to Predict Student Performance on State-Mandated Assessments: An Applied Approach for Establishing Predictive Cutscores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Michael; Dufore, Emily; McDougal, James

    2012-01-01

    Cutscores for reading and math (general outcome measures) to predict passage on New York state-mandated assessments were created by using a freely available Excel workbook. The authors used linear regression to create the cutscores and diagnostic indicators were provided. A rationale and procedure for using this method is outlined. This method…

  16. A new measure-correlate-predict approach for resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    In order to find reasonable candidate site for wind farms, it is of great importance to be able to calculate the wind resource at potential sites. One way to solve this problem is to measure wind speed and direction at the site, and use these measurements to predict the resource. If the measurements at the potential site cover less than e.g. one year, which most likely will be the case, it is not possible to get a reliable estimate of the long-term resource, using this approach. If long-term measurements from e.g. some nearby meteorological station are available, however, then statistical methods can be used to find a relation between the measurements at the site and at the meteorological station. This relation can then be used to transform the long-term measurements to the potential site, and the resource can be calculated using the transformed measurements. Here, a varying-coefficient model, estimated using local regression, is applied in order to establish a relation between the measurements. The approach is evaluated using measurements from two sites, located approximately two kilometres apart, and the results show that the resource in this case can be predicted accurately, although this approach has serious shortcomings. (au)

  17. Prediction and assessment of depression rates in patients with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of the study is to assess, in advanced lung cancer patients, the frequency of depression and the related demographic and biomedical factors before diagnosis and after the initial treatment period. Seventy-nine patients from among 105 advanced lung cancer patients diagnosed between July 1994 and April 2003 in ...

  18. Assessment of single extraction methods for the prediction of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since the bioavailability of metals, their biological uptake and eco-toxicological effect on soil biota can be understood better in terms of their biogeochemical forms, the study assessed the effect of crude oil applied at rates, 0, 2, 5, and 10% on the fractional chemical forms and availability of some metals in soils from Usen, ...

  19. The Nature and Predictive Validity of a Benchmark Assessment Program in an American Indian School District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Beverly J. R.

    2013-01-01

    This mixed methods study explored the nature of a benchmark assessment program and how well the benchmark assessments predicted End-of-Grade (EOG) and End-of-Course (EOC) test scores in an American Indian school district. Five major themes were identified and used to develop a Dimensions of Benchmark Assessment Program Effectiveness model:…

  20. Predicting Students' Academic Achievement: Contributions of Perceptions of Classroom Assessment Tasks and Motivated Learning Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkharusi, Hussain

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Students are daily exposed to a variety of assessment tasks in the classroom. It has long been recognized that students' perceptions of the assessment tasks may influence student academic achievement. The present study aimed at predicting academic achievement in mathematics from perceptions of the assessment tasks after controlling…

  1. Video-Based Physiologic Monitoring During an Acute Hypoxic Challenge: Heart Rate, Respiratory Rate, and Oxygen Saturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, Paul S; Jacquel, Dominique; Foo, David M H; Antunes, André; Borg, Ulf R

    2017-09-01

    The physiologic information contained in the video photoplethysmogram is well documented. However, extracting this information during challenging conditions requires new analysis techniques to capture and process the video image streams to extract clinically useful physiologic parameters. We hypothesized that heart rate, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation trending can be evaluated accurately from video information during acute hypoxia. Video footage was acquired from multiple desaturation episodes during a porcine model of acute hypoxia using a standard visible light camera. A novel in-house algorithm was used to extract photoplethysmographic cardiac pulse and respiratory information from the video image streams and process it to extract a continuously reported video-based heart rate (HRvid), respiratory rate (RRvid), and oxygen saturation (SvidO2). This information was then compared with HR and oxygen saturation references from commercial pulse oximetry and the known rate of respiration from the ventilator. Eighty-eight minutes of data were acquired during 16 hypoxic episodes in 8 animals. A linear mixed-effects regression showed excellent responses relative to a nonhypoxic reference signal with slopes of 0.976 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.973-0.979) for HRvid; 1.135 (95% CI, 1.101-1.168) for RRvid, and 0.913 (95% CI, 0.905-0.920) for video-based oxygen saturation. These results were obtained while maintaining continuous uninterrupted vital sign monitoring for the entire study period. Video-based monitoring of HR, RR, and oxygen saturation may be performed with reasonable accuracy during acute hypoxic conditions in an anesthetized porcine hypoxia model using standard visible light camera equipment. However, the study was conducted during relatively low motion. A better understanding of the effect of motion and the effect of ambient light on the video photoplethysmogram may help refine this monitoring technology for use in the clinical environment.

  2. Psychometric assessment of human life history predicts health related behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Kruger

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Life History Theory is a powerful framework that can help promote understanding of variation in health-related behavioral patterns and why they vary consistent with environmental conditions. An organism's life history reflects tradeoffs made in the allocation of effort towards specific aspects of survival and reproduction across the lifespan. This study examines the relationship between psychological indicators of life history strategy and health related behaviors in a demographically representative sample in the Midwestern USA. Slower life histories predicted higher levels of health promoting behaviors and lower levels of health adverse behaviors, even when controlling for relevant socio-demographic factors. The analyses provide a strong test of the hypothesized relationship between life history and health behavior indicators, as life history variation co-varies with these socio-demographic factors. Traditional public health efforts may be reaching their limits of effectiveness in encouraging health-promoting behaviors. Integrating an evolutionary framework may revitalize behavioral health promotion efforts.

  3. Assessment and prediction of speech quality in telecommunications

    CERN Document Server

    Möller, Sebastian

    2000-01-01

    The quality of a telecommunication voice service is largely inftuenced by the quality of the transmission system. Nevertheless, the analysis, synthesis and prediction of quality should take into account its multidimensional aspects. Quality can be regarded as a point where the perceived characteristics and the desired or expected ones meet. A schematic is presented which classifies different entities which contribute to the quality of a service, taking into account conversational, user as weIl as service related contributions. Starting from this concept, perceptively relevant constituents of speech communication quality are identified. The perceptive factors result from ele­ ments of the transmission configuration. A simulation model is developed and implemented which allows the most relevant parameters of traditional trans­ mission configurations to be manipulated, in real time and for the conversation situation. Inputs into the simulation are instrumentally measurable quality elements commonly used in tra...

  4. Predicting Altruistic Behavior and Assessing Homophily: Evidence from the Sisterhood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Vernarelli

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The persistence of altruism throughout the evolutionary process has been explained by some on the basis of assortation, which requires the ability to detect dispositional altruism in others and voluntary interaction, resulting in altruism homophily. Numerous studies have identified the ability to detect dispositional altruism in strangers, but few have investigated this ability and altruism homophily in social networks. The purpose of this study is to provide additional evidence with regard to the ability to detect dispositional altruism among individuals who have repeated interactions in a collegiate social organization and the extent of altruism homophily. The results indicate that individuals possess an ability to predict dispositional altruism as measured by behavior in the dictator game and that this ability is a function of social closeness. However, the study does not support the hypothesis of an assortation process that results in altruism homophily.

  5. Can Nutritional Assessment Tools Predict Response to Nutritional Therapy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Chirag; Omer, Endashaw; Diamond, Sarah J; McClave, Stephen A

    2016-04-01

    Traditional tools and scoring systems for nutritional assessment have focused solely on parameters of poor nutritional status in the past, in an effort to define the elusive concept of malnutrition. Such tools fail to account for the contribution of disease severity to overall nutritional risk. High nutritional risk, caused by either deterioration of nutritional status or greater disease severity (or a combination of both factors), puts the patient in a metabolic stress state characterized by adverse outcome and increased complications. Newer scoring systems for determining nutritional risk, such as the Nutric Score and the Nutritional Risk Score-2002 have created a paradigm shift connecting assessment and treatment with quality outcome measures of success. Clinicians now have the opportunity to identify high risk patients through their initial assessment, provide adequate or sufficient nutrition therapy, and expect improved patient outcomes as a result. These concepts are supported by observational and prospective interventional trials. Greater clinical experience and refinement in these scoring systems are needed in the future to optimize patient response to nutrition therapy.

  6. Cohort study on predicting grades: is performance on early MBChB assessments predictive of later undergraduate grades?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleland, Jennifer A; Milne, Andrew; Sinclair, Hazel; Lee, Amanda J

    2008-07-01

    Timely intervention, based on early identification of poor performance, is likely to help weaker medical students improve their performance. We wished to identify if poor performance in degree assessments early in the medical degree predicts later undergraduate grades. If it does, this information could be used to signpost strategically placed supportive interventions for our students. We carried out a retrospective, observational study of anonymised databases of student assessment outcomes at the University of Aberdeen Medical School. Data were accessed for students who graduated in the years 2003-07 (n = 861). The main outcome measure was marks for summative degree assessments from the end of Year 2 to the end of Year 5. After adjustment for cohort, maturity, gender, funding source, intercalation and graduate status, poor performance (fail and borderline pass) in the Year 2 first semester written examination Principles of Medicine II was found to be a significant predictor of poor performance in all subsequent written examinations (all P Poor performance in the Year 3 objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) was a significant predictor of poor performance in Year 4 and 5 OSCEs. Relationships between essay-based summative assessments were not significantly predictive. Male gender appeared to significantly predict poor performance. Examinations taken as early as mid-Year 2 can be used to identify medical students who would benefit from intervention and support. Strategic delivery of appropriate intervention at this time may enable poorer students to perform better in subsequent examinations. We can then monitor the impact of remedial support on subsequent performance.

  7. Comprehensive geriatric assessment and comorbidities predict survival in geriatric oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denewet, Nathalie; De Breucker, Sandra; Luce, Sylvie; Kennes, Bernard; Higuet, Sandra; Pepersack, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    The comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) can detect geriatric problems and potentially improve survival, physical, and cognitive state of patients, as well as increase an older person's chances of staying at home longer. In older people, the number and severity of comorbidity increase with age and are an important determinant of survival. The aim of the study was to assess to which extent CGA and comorbidities could be seen as determinants of survival. This study analyzed data from two hospitals that included geriatric assessments of patients aged 70 years and more with cancer linked to mortality. Logistic regression was used to model survival predictors. Two hundred and five various cancer patients (47% females) with a median age of 79 were included. They presented with a lot of undiagnosed geriatric problems. Screening scales (G8, SEGA), cognitive, and psychological disorders, and low albumin levels appeared to be independent survival factors. A frailty profile classification was associated with higher mortality. The average comorbidity was graded 2 according to the Charlson scale. By the geriatric cumulative illness rating scale (CIRS-G), the arithmetic average number of affected organ systems was 5 (range 0-10) in all patients. Cardiovascular disorders were the most common comorbidity. Renal insufficiency and anaemia were negatively associated with survival. Old cancer patients present a lot of comorbidities and newly diagnosed geriatric problems. Several tools provide determinants of survival in old cancer patients. Prospective trials evaluating the utility of a CGA to guide interventions to improve quality of cancer care in older adults are justified.

  8. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rebecca Chaplin-kramer; Sarah Sim; Perrine Hamel; Benjamin Bryant; Ryan Noe; Carina Mueller; Giles Rigarlsford; Michal Kulak; Virginia Kowal; Richard Sharp; Julie Clavreul; Edward Price; Stephen Polasky; Mary Ruckelshaus; Gretchen Daily

    2017-01-01

    .... Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity...

  9. The importance of virulence prediction and gene networks in microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wassenaar, Gertrude Maria; Gamieldien, Junaid; Shatkin, JoAnne

    2007-01-01

    For microbial risk assessment, it is necessary to recognize and predict Virulence of bacterial pathogens, including their ability to contaminate foods. Hazard characterization requires data on strain variability regarding virulence and survival during food processing. Moreover, information on vir...

  10. Importance of environmental and biomass dynamics in predicting chemical exposure in ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morselli, M.; Semplice, M.; Leander, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Guardo, Di A.

    2015-01-01

    In ecological risk assessment, exposure is generally modelled assuming static conditions, herewith neglecting the potential role of emission, environmental and biomass dynamics in affecting bioavailable concentrations. In order to investigate the influence of such dynamics on predicted bioavailable

  11. Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

  12. Does the Mini Nutritional Assessment predict hospitalization outcomes in older people?

    OpenAIRE

    Van Nes, Marie‐Claire; Herrmann, François R.; Gold, Gabriel; Michel, Jean‐Pierre; Rizzoli, René,

    2017-01-01

    Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment is a validated clinical tool for the assessment of nutritional status in older people. Moderate to severe malnutrition is common in elderly patients in hospital and is associated with a poor outcome. Objectives: to determine whether the Mini Nutritional Assessment can predict the outcome of hospital stay in older individuals. Setting: a tertiary‐care geriatric hospital. Methods: we evaluated nutritional status using the Mini Nutritional Assessment i...

  13. CPO Prediction: Accuracy Assessment and Impact on UT1 Intensive Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2010-01-01

    The UT1 Intensive results heavily depend on the celestial pole offset (CPO) model used during data processing. Since accurate CPO values are available with a delay of two to four weeks, CPO predictions are necessarily applied to the UT1 Intensive data analysis, and errors in the predictions can influence the operational UT1 accuracy. In this paper we assess the real accuracy of CPO prediction using the actual IERS and PUL predictions made in 2007-2009. Also, results of operational processing were analyzed to investigate the actual impact of EOP prediction errors on the rapid UT1 results. It was found that the impact of CPO prediction errors is at a level of several microseconds, whereas the impact of the inaccuracy in the polar motion prediction may be about one order of magnitude larger for ultra-rapid UT1 results. The situation can be amended if the IERS Rapid solution will be updated more frequently.

  14. Application of a full body inertial measurement system in alpine skiing: a comparison with an optical video based system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Andreas; Edelmann-Nusser, Jürgen

    2010-11-01

    This study aims at determining the accuracy of a full body inertial measurement system in a real skiing environment in comparison with an optical video based system. Recent studies have shown the use of inertial measurement systems for the determination of kinematical parameters in alpine skiing. However, a quantitative validation of a full body inertial measurement system for the application in alpine skiing is so far not available. For the purpose of this study, a skier performed a test-run equipped with a full body inertial measurement system in combination with a DGPS. In addition, one turn of the test-run was analyzed by an optical video based system. With respect to the analyzed angles, a maximum mean difference of 4.9° was measured. No differences in the measured angles between the inertial measurement system and the combined usage with a DGPS were found. Concerning the determination of the skier's trajectory, an additional system (e.g., DGPS) must be used. As opposed to optical methods, the main advantages of the inertial measurement system are the determination of kinematical parameters without the limitation of restricted capture volume, and small time costs for the measurement preparation and data analysis.

  15. An Energy-Efficient and High-Quality Video Transmission Architecture in Wireless Video-Based Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghdasi, Hadi S.; Abbaspour, Maghsoud; Moghadam, Mohsen Ebrahimi; Samei, Yasaman

    2008-01-01

    Technological progress in the fields of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and wireless communications and also the availability of CMOS cameras, microphones and small-scale array sensors, which may ubiquitously capture multimedia content from the field, have fostered the development of low-cost limited resources Wireless Video-based Sensor Networks (WVSN). With regards to the constraints of video-based sensor nodes and wireless sensor networks, a supporting video stream is not easy to implement with the present sensor network protocols. In this paper, a thorough architecture is presented for video transmission over WVSN called Energy-efficient and high-Quality Video transmission Architecture (EQV-Architecture). This architecture influences three layers of communication protocol stack and considers wireless video sensor nodes constraints like limited process and energy resources while video quality is preserved in the receiver side. Application, transport, and network layers are the layers in which the compression protocol, transport protocol, and routing protocol are proposed respectively, also a dropping scheme is presented in network layer. Simulation results over various environments with dissimilar conditions revealed the effectiveness of the architecture in improving the lifetime of the network as well as preserving the video quality. PMID:27873772

  16. First Assessments of Predicted ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Thomas; Markus, Thorsten; Cook, William; Hancock, David; Brenner, Anita; Kelly, Brunt; DeMarco, Eugenia; Reed, Daniel; Walsh, Kaitlin

    2012-01-01

    The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in mid-2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (10 kHz), small footprint (10 m nominal ground diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise range to the earth's surface. Using green light (532 nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with the single beam of ICESat, while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. The six beams are arranged into three pairs of beams which allow slopes to measured on an orbit-by-orbit basis. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development, an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010. This simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was most recently deployed to Iceland in April 2012 and collected approx 85 hours of science data over land ice, sea ice, and calibration targets. MABEL uses a similar photon-counting measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects data in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared aligned across the direction of flight. By using NASA's ER-2 aircraft flying at 20km altitude, MABEL flies as close to space as is practical, and collects data through approx 95% of the atmosphere. We present background on the MABEL instrument, and data from the April 2012 deployment to Iceland. Among the 13 MABEL flights, we collected data over the Greenland ice sheet interior and outlet glaciers in the southwest and western Greenland, sea ice data over the Nares Strait and Greenland Sea, and a number of small glaciers and ice caps in Iceland and Svalbard

  17. A comparison of face to face and video-based education on attitude related to diet and fluids: Adherence in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi Moonaghi, Hossein; Hasanzadeh, Farzaneh; Shamsoddini, Somayyeh; Emamimoghadam, Zahra; Ebrahimzadeh, Saeed

    2012-07-01

    Adherence to diet and fluids is the cornerstone of patients undergoing hemodialysis. By informing hemodialysis patients we can help them have a proper diet and reduce mortality and complications of toxins. Face to face education is one of the most common methods of training in health care system. But advantages of video- based education are being simple and cost-effective, although this method is virtual. Seventy-five hemodialysis patients were divided randomly into face to face and video-based education groups. A training manual was designed based on Orem's self-care model. Content of training manual was same in both the groups. In the face to face group, 2 educational sessions were accomplished during dialysis with a 1-week time interval. In the video-based education group, a produced film, separated to 2 episodes was presented during dialysis with a 1-week time interval. An Attitude questionnaire was completed as a pretest and at the end of weeks 2 and 4. SPSS software version 11.5 was used for analysis. Attitudes about fluid and diet adherence at the end of weeks 2 and 4 are not significantly different in face to face or video-based education groups. The patients' attitude had a significant difference in face to face group between the 3 study phases (pre-, 2, and 4 weeks postintervention). The same results were obtained in 3 phases of video-based education group. Our findings showed that video-based education could be as effective as face to face method. It is recommended that more investment be devoted to video-based education.

  18. Predicting early academic success: HESI Admissions Assessment Exam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knauss, Parry J; Willson, Pamela

    2013-01-01

    Student retention is a major challenge for undergraduate nursing programs, with the highest attrition occurring in the first year of the nursing curriculum. Admission criteria have been studied extensively but usually as related to end-of-program outcomes such as National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses success. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between HESI Admission Assessment (A(2)) scores and academic performance in the 2 first-semester nursing courses of an associate degree program, Nursing-1 and Nursing-2. Findings indicated that the composite A(2) scores were strongly correlated with both Nursing-1 and Nursing-2 final course grades. Of the scores on the 4 component A(2) exams completed by the sample students (basic math skills, reading comprehension, vocabulary/general knowledge, and grammar), vocabulary/general knowledge scores had the strongest relationship to final course grades in both nursing courses. The authors concluded that A(2) scores facilitated evidence-based admission decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. New encouraging developments in contact prediction: Assessment of the CASP11 results

    KAUST Repository

    Monastyrskyy, Bohdan

    2015-10-01

    © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This article provides a report on the state-of-the-art in the prediction of intra-molecular residue-residue contacts in proteins based on the assessment of the predictions submitted to the CASP11 experiment. The assessment emphasis is placed on the accuracy in predicting long-range contacts. Twenty-nine groups participated in contact prediction in CASP11. At least eight of them used the recently developed evolutionary coupling techniques, with the top group (CONSIP2) reaching precision of 27% on target proteins that could not be modeled by homology. This result indicates a breakthrough in the development of methods based on the correlated mutation approach. Successful prediction of contacts was shown to be practically helpful in modeling three-dimensional structures; in particular target T0806 was modeled exceedingly well with accuracy not yet seen for ab initio targets of this size (>250 residues).

  20. The Utility of Risk Assessment Instruments for the Prediction of Recidivism in Sexual Homicide Perpetrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andreas; Rettenberger, Martin; Habermann, Niels; Berner, Wolfgang; Eher, Reinhard; Briken, Peer

    2012-01-01

    To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of…

  1. A comparison of the predictive properties of nine sex offender risk assessment instruments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smid, W.J.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Wever, E.C.; van Beek, D.J.

    2014-01-01

    Sex offender treatment is most effective when tailored to risk-need-responsivity principles, which dictate that treatment levels should match risk levels as assessed by structured risk assessment instruments. The predictive properties, missing values, and interrater agreement of the scores of 9

  2. Predicting Pre-Service Teachers' Intention of Implementing Peer Assessment for Low-Achieving Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Su Yon; Cho, Young Hoan

    2016-01-01

    Despite the benefits of peer assessment, many teachers are not willing to implement it, particularly for low-achieving students. This study used the theory of planned behaviour to predict pre-service teachers' intention to use peer assessment for low-achieving students. A total of 229 pre-service teachers in Singapore participated in the survey…

  3. Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lodewijks, H.P.B.; Doreleijers, T.A.H.; de Ruiter, C.; Borum, R.

    2008-01-01

    This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument,

  4. An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellucci, A.; Haarsma, R.; Gualdi, S.; Athanasiadis, P. J.; Caian, M.; Cassou, C.; Fernandez, E.; Germe, A.; Jungclaus, J.; Kröger, J.; Matei, D.; Müller, W.; Pohlmann, H.; Salas y Melia, D.; Sanchez, E.; Smith, D.; Terray, L.; Wyser, K.; Yang, S.

    2015-05-01

    A multi-model ensemble of decadal prediction experiments, performed in the framework of the EU-funded COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) Project following the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project protocol is examined. The ensemble combines a variety of dynamical models, initialization and perturbation strategies, as well as data assimilation products employed to constrain the initial state of the system. Taking advantage of the multi-model approach, several aspects of decadal climate predictions are assessed, including predictive skill, impact of the initialization strategy and the level of uncertainty characterizing the predicted fluctuations of key climate variables. The present analysis adds to the growing evidence that the current generation of climate models adequately initialized have significant skill in predicting years ahead not only the anthropogenic warming but also part of the internal variability of the climate system. An important finding is that the multi-model ensemble mean does generally outperform the individual forecasts, a well-documented result for seasonal forecasting, supporting the need to extend the multi-model framework to real-time decadal predictions in order to maximize the predictive capabilities of currently available decadal forecast systems. The multi-model perspective did also allow a more robust assessment of the impact of the initialization strategy on the quality of decadal predictions, providing hints of an improved forecast skill under full-value (with respect to anomaly) initialization in the near-term range, over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region. Finally, the consistency across the different model predictions was assessed. Specifically, different systems reveal a general agreement in predicting the near-term evolution of surface temperatures, displaying positive correlations between different decadal hindcasts over most of the global domain.

  5. Assessment of predictive dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment

    OpenAIRE

    Agnieszka Jankowska; Sławomir Czerczak; Małgorzata Kupczewska-Dobecka

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment is problematic, mainly as a result of the lack of measurement data on occupational exposure to chemicals. Due to common prevalence of occupational skin exposure and its health consequences it is necessary to look for efficient solutions allowing for reliable exposure assessment. The aim of the study is to present predictive models used to assess non-measured dermal exposure, as well as to acquaint Polish users with the princip...

  6. Preservice music teachers' predictions, perceptions, and assessment of students with special needs: the need for training in student assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanWeelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' levels of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders (EDBD) and students with acute cognitive delays (ACD). The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers' perceptions of all students' levels of mastery increased from prediction scores overall. Additionally, preservice teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' levels of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Implications for music therapists, as consultants in special education, are discussed.

  7. The application of predictive models in the environmental risk assessment of ECONOR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boxall, A B; Oakes, D; Ripley, P; Watts, C D

    2000-04-01

    Environmental risk assessment of products requires information on the physico-chemical properties, persistence and ecotoxicity of the product, its constituents and possible metabolic and degradation products. Experimental investigations are usually required to generate this information and consequently risk assessment can be costly and time consuming. One possible approach to minimising the amount of experimental testing is to supplement experimental data with data predicted using models such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs). Using these models, information can be generated based primarily on the knowledge of the chemical structure of the substance(s) under investigation. In this study predictive models were used to assess the environmental risk of the veterinary medicine, ECONOR which contains the active ingredient valnemulin. Available experimental data on the properties, degradability and ecotoxicity of valnemulin was supplemented with predicted data. Where possible, experimental data was used to validate the predicted approaches and this indicated that the predictions were accurate. Information on usage, properties and degradability was input to fate models to predict environmental concentrations (PECs) of valnemulin in soil, pore water and groundwater. Comparison of PECs with experimental and predicted ecotoxicity data for valnemulin indicated that that even under 'worst case' scenarios the environmental risk posed by valnemulin was low.

  8. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  9. Effect of Video-Based versus Personalized Instruction on Errors during Elastic Tubing Exercises for Musculoskeletal Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Jay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Workplace interventions have shown beneficial results of resistance training for chronic pain in the neck, shoulder, and arm. However, studies have relied on experienced exercise instructors, which may not be an available resource at most workplaces. The objective of this study is to evaluate the technical performance level of upper limb rehabilitation exercises following video-based versus personalized exercise instruction. We recruited 38 laboratory technicians and office workers with neck/shoulder pain for a two-week exercise training period receiving either (1 personal and video or (2 video only instruction in four typical neck/shoulder/arm rehabilitation exercises using elastic tubing. At a 2-week follow-up, the participants’ technical execution was assessed by two blinded physical therapists using a reliable error assessment tool. The error assessment was based on ordinal deviation of joint position from the ideal position of the shoulder, elbow, and wrist in a single plane by visual observation. Of the four exercises only unilateral shoulder external rotation had a higher normalized error score in the V group of 22.19 (9.30 to 12.64 (6.94 in the P group (P=0.002. For the remaining three exercises the normalized error score did not differ. In conclusion, when instructing simple exercises to reduce musculoskeletal pain the use of video material is a cost-effective solution that can be implemented easily in corporations with challenging work schedules not allowing for a fixed time of day to go see a personal trainer.

  10. Measuring eye movements during locomotion: filtering techniques for obtaining velocity signals from a video-based eye monitor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, V. E.; Thomas, C. W.; Zivotofsky, A. Z.; Leigh, R. J.

    1996-01-01

    Video-based eye-tracking systems are especially suited to studying eye movements during naturally occurring activities such as locomotion, but eye velocity records suffer from broad band noise that is not amenable to conventional filtering methods. We evaluated the effectiveness of combined median and moving-average filters by comparing prefiltered and postfiltered records made synchronously with a video eye-tracker and the magnetic search coil technique, which is relatively noise free. Root-mean-square noise was reduced by half, without distorting the eye velocity signal. To illustrate the practical use of this technique, we studied normal subjects and patients with deficient labyrinthine function and compared their ability to hold gaze on a visual target that moved with their heads (cancellation of the vestibulo-ocular reflex). Patients and normal subjects performed similarly during active head rotation but, during locomotion, patients held their eyes more steadily on the visual target than did subjects.

  11. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  12. Video-based heart rate monitoring across a range of skin pigmentations during an acute hypoxic challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, Paul S; Jacquel, Dominique; Foo, David M H; Borg, Ulf R

    2017-11-09

    The robust monitoring of heart rate from the video-photoplethysmogram (video-PPG) during challenging conditions requires new analysis techniques. The work reported here extends current research in this area by applying a motion tolerant algorithm to extract high quality video-PPGs from a cohort of subjects undergoing marked heart rate changes during a hypoxic challenge, and exhibiting a full range of skin pigmentation types. High uptimes in reported video-based heart rate (HRvid) were targeted, while retaining high accuracy in the results. Ten healthy volunteers were studied during a double desaturation hypoxic challenge. Video-PPGs were generated from the acquired video image stream and processed to generate heart rate. HRvid was compared to the pulse rate posted by a reference pulse oximeter device (HRp). Agreement between video-based heart rate and that provided by the pulse oximeter was as follows: Bias = - 0.21 bpm, RMSD = 2.15 bpm, least squares fit gradient = 1.00 (Pearson R = 0.99, p < 0.0001), with a 98.78% reporting uptime. The difference between the HRvid and HRp exceeded 5 and 10 bpm, for 3.59 and 0.35% of the reporting time respectively, and at no point did these differences exceed 25 bpm. Excellent agreement was found between the HRvid and HRp in a study covering the whole range of skin pigmentation types (Fitzpatrick scales I-VI), using standard room lighting and with moderate subject motion. Although promising, further work should include a larger cohort with multiple subjects per Fitzpatrick class combined with a more rigorous motion and lighting protocol.

  13. Anthropometric parameters of nutritional assessment as predictive factors of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) of hospitalized elderly patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leandro-Merhi, V A; De Aquino, J L Braga

    2011-03-01

    The objective of this study was to identify nutritional indicators that predict MNA (mini nutritional assessment) classification in hospitalized elderly patients. This cross-sectional study assessed the nutritional status of 109 elderly patients at the beginning of their hospital stay with anthropometric and laboratory indicators and the MNA. Habitual energy intake (HEI) was also determined. The assessed nutritional indicators were investigated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to verify if they can predict MNA classification. The odds ratio (OR) and its respective confidence interval (CI) of 95% were also calculated, and the significance level was set at 5% (p nutritional status of most patients (61.47%) was appropriate but 30.28% were at risk of malnourishment and 8.26% were malnourished. Statistical differences were found for those aged more than 70 years and for arm circumference, body mass index, calf circumference, triceps skinfold thickness and mid-arm muscle circumference. Initially, the predictive factors identified by univariate logistic regression were body mass index (BMI) (p=0.0001; OR=0.825), calf circumference (CC) (p=0.0026; OR=0.832), arm circumference (AC) (p classification. In the conditions of this study, first AC, then BMI and finally TST and MAMC together were capable of predicting MNA classification.

  14. Finnish Mathematics Teaching from a Reform Perspective: A Video-Based Case-Study Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Paul

    2013-01-01

    This article offers a qualitative analysis of videotaped mathematics lessons taught by four teachers in a provincial university city in Finland. My study is framed not only by Finnish success on Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) but also by the objectives of current mathematics education reform, which are consistent with PISA's…

  15. Facial Video based Detection of Physical Fatigue for Maximal Muscle Activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haque, Mohammad Ahsanul; Irani, Ramin; Nasrollahi, Kamal

    2016-01-01

    Physical fatigue reveals the health condition of a person at for example health checkup, fitness assessment or rehabilitation training. This paper presents an efficient noncontact system for detecting non-localized physi-cal fatigue from maximal muscle activity using facial videos acquired...

  16. Self-Directed Interactive Video-Based Instruction Versus Instructor-Led Teaching for Myanmar House Surgeons: A Randomized, Noninferiority Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lwin, Albert Thein; Lwin, Thein; Naing, Phyu; Oo, Yee; Kidd, David; Cerullo, Marcelo; Posen, Joshua; Hlaing, Kyaw; Yenokyan, Gayane; Thinn, Kyi Kyi; Soe, Zaw Wai; Stevens, Kent A

    2017-06-29

    To compare self-directed interactive video-based instruction (IVBI) with instructor-led teaching in the acquisition of basic surgical skills by House Surgeons at University of Medicine 1, Yangon. A prospective, 1:1 randomized controlled trial was conducted. Participants were randomized into 2 teaching arms: (1) self-directed IVBI or (2) instructor-led teaching. Self-directed IVBI participants were provided with a portable DVD player that could play, fast forward, rewind, and skip through skills modules. Participants in the instructor-led teaching group were taught in small groups by standardized instructors. Pretesting and posttesting of 1-handed knot tie, 2-handed knot tie, vertical mattress suture, and instrument tie was performed using the Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS). Students randomized to self-directed IVBI completed an exit survey to assess satisfaction. Demographic data were collected of all participants. University of Medicine 1, Yangon, Myanmar. Fifty participants were randomly selected from 78 eligible House Surgeons who were enrolled in their basic surgery rotation. Demographic characteristics and baseline skills were comparable in participants randomized to IVBI and instructor-led teaching. Mean OSATS score increased from pretest to posttest in both groups (p following statements on the exit survey: further expansion of IVBI into other skills modules and integration of IVBI into training curriculum. IVBI is noninferior to instructor-led teaching of surgical skills based on OSATS scores. House Surgeons highly rated self-directed IVBI. Self-directed IVBI has the potential to significantly reduce the personnel required for skills teaching and may serve as a long-term learning adjunct in low-resource settings. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Video-based coping skills to reduce health risk and improve psychological and physical well-being in Alzheimer's disease family caregivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Virginia P; Bishop-Fitzpatrick, Lauren; Lane, James D; Gwyther, Lisa P; Ballard, Edna L; Vendittelli, Analise P; Hutchins, Tiffany C; Williams, Redford B

    2010-11-01

    To determine whether video-based coping skills (VCS) training with telephone coaching reduces psychosocial and biological markers of distress in primary caregivers of a relative with Alzheimer's disease or related dementia (ADRD). A controlled clinical trial was conducted with 116 ADRD caregivers who were assigned, alternately as they qualified for the study, to a Wait List control condition or the VCS training arm in which they viewed two modules/week of a version of the Williams LifeSkills Video adapted for ADRD family care contexts, did the exercises and homework for each module presented in an accompanying Workbook, and received one telephone coaching call per week for 5 weeks on each week's two modules. Questionnaire-assessed depressive symptoms, state and trait anger and anxiety, perceived stress, hostility, caregiver self-efficacy, salivary cortisol across the day and before and after a stress protocol, and blood pressure and heart rate during a stress protocol were assessed before VCS training, 7 weeks after training was completed, and at 3 months' and 6 months' follow-up. Compared with controls, participants who received VCS training plus telephone coaching showed significantly greater improvements in depressive symptoms, trait anxiety, perceived stress, and average systolic and diastolic blood pressures that were maintained over the 6-month follow-up period. VCS training augmented by telephone coaching reduced psychosocial and biological indicators of distress in ADRD caregivers. Future studies should determine the long-term benefits to mental and physical health from this intervention. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; #NCT00396285.

  18. A Comparative Assessment of Predictive Accuracies of Conventional and Machine Learning Scoring Functions for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashtawy, Hossam M; Mahapatra, Nihar R

    2015-01-01

    Accurately predicting the binding affinities of large diverse sets of protein-ligand complexes efficiently is a key challenge in computational biomolecular science, with applications in drug discovery, chemical biology, and structural biology. Since a scoring function (SF) is used to score, rank, and identify potential drug leads, the fidelity with which it predicts the affinity of a ligand candidate for a protein's binding site has a significant bearing on the accuracy of virtual screening. Despite intense efforts in developing conventional SFs, which are either force-field based, knowledge-based, or empirical, their limited predictive accuracy has been a major roadblock toward cost-effective drug discovery. Therefore, in this work, we explore a range of novel SFs employing different machine-learning (ML) approaches in conjunction with a variety of physicochemical and geometrical features characterizing protein-ligand complexes. We assess the scoring accuracies of these new ML SFs as well as those of conventional SFs in the context of the 2007 and 2010 PDBbind benchmark datasets on both diverse and protein-family-specific test sets. We also investigate the influence of the size of the training dataset and the type and number of features used on scoring accuracy. We find that the best performing ML SF has a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.806 between predicted and measured binding affinities compared to 0.644 achieved by a state-of-the-art conventional SF. We also find that ML SFs benefit more than their conventional counterparts from increases in the number of features and the size of training dataset. In addition, they perform better on novel proteins that they were never trained on before.

  19. Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

    2017-11-29

    Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

  20. Assessment of blood glucose predictors: the prediction-error grid analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivananthan, Sampath; Naumova, Valeriya; Man, Chiara Dalla; Facchinetti, Andrea; Renard, Eric; Cobelli, Claudio; Pereverzyev, Sergei V

    2011-08-01

    Prediction of the future blood glucose (BG) evolution from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data is a promising direction in diabetes therapy management, and several glucose predictors have recently been proposed. This raises the problem of their assessment. There were attempts to use for such assessment the continuous glucose-error grid analysis (CG-EGA), originally developed for CGM devices. However, in the CG-EGA the BG rate of change is estimated from past BG readings, whereas predictors provide BG estimation ahead of time. Therefore, the original CG-EGA should be modified to assess predictors. Here we propose a new version of the CG-EGA, the Prediction-Error Grid Analysis (PRED-EGA). The analysis is based both on simulated data and on data from clinical trials, performed in the European FP7-project "DIAdvisor." Simulated data are used to test the ability of the analyzed CG-EGA modifications to capture erroneous predictions in controlled situation. Real data are used to show the impact of the different CG-EGA versions in the evaluation of a predictor. Using the data of 10 virtual and 10 real subjects and analyzing two different predictors, we demonstrate that the straightforward application of the CG-EGA does not adequately classify the prediction performance. For example, we observed that up to 70% of 20 min ahead predictions in the hyperglycemia region that are classified by this application as erroneous are, in fact, accurate. Moreover, for predictions during hypoglycemia the assessments produced by the straightforward application of the CG-EGA are not only too pessimistic (in up to 60% of cases), but this version is not able to detect real erroneous predictions. In contrast, the proposed modification of the CG-EGA, where the rate of change is estimated on the predicted BG profile, is an adequate metric for the assessment of predictions. We propose a new CG-EGA, the PRED-EGA, for the assessment of glucose predictors. The presented analysis shows that

  1. The weather roulette: assessing the economic value of seasonal wind speed predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christel, Isadora; Cortesi, Nicola; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Soret, Albert; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-04-01

    Climate prediction is an emerging and highly innovative research area. For the wind energy sector, predicting the future variability of wind resources over the coming weeks or seasons is especially relevant to quantify operation and maintenance logistic costs or to inform energy trading decision with potential cost savings and/or economic benefits. Recent advances in climate predictions have already shown that probabilistic forecasting can improve the current prediction practices, which are based in the use of retrospective climatology and the assumption that what happened in the past is the best estimation of future conditions. Energy decision makers now have this new set of climate services but, are they willing to use them? Our aim is to properly explain the potential economic benefits of adopting probabilistic predictions, compared with the current practice, by using the weather roulette methodology (Hagedorn & Smith, 2009). This methodology is a diagnostic tool created to inform in a more intuitive and relevant way about the skill and usefulness of a forecast in the decision making process, by providing an economic and financial oriented assessment of the benefits of using a particular forecast system. We have selected a region relevant to the energy stakeholders where the predictions of the EUPORIAS climate service prototype for the energy sector (RESILIENCE) are skillful. In this region, we have applied the weather roulette to compare the overall prediction success of RESILIENCE's predictions and climatology illustrating it as an effective interest rate, an economic term that is easier to understand for energy stakeholders.

  2. Assessment of Prediction Capabilities of COCOSYS and CFX Code for Simplified Containment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The acceptable accuracy for simulation of severe accident scenarios in containments of nuclear power plants is required to investigate the consequences of severe accidents and effectiveness of potential counter measures. For this purpose, the actual capability of CFX tool and COCOSYS code is assessed in prototypical geometries for simplified physical process-plume (due to a heat source under adiabatic and convection boundary condition, respectively. Results of the comparison under adiabatic boundary condition show that good agreement is obtained among the analytical solution, COCOSYS prediction, and CFX prediction for zone temperature. The general trend of the temperature distribution along the vertical direction predicted by COCOSYS agrees with the CFX prediction except in dome, and this phenomenon is predicted well by CFX and failed to be reproduced by COCOSYS. Both COCOSYS and CFX indicate that there is no temperature stratification inside dome. CFX prediction shows that temperature stratification area occurs beneath the dome and away from the heat source. Temperature stratification area under adiabatic boundary condition is bigger than that under convection boundary condition. The results indicate that the average temperature inside containment predicted with COCOSYS model is overestimated under adiabatic boundary condition, while it is underestimated under convection boundary condition compared to CFX prediction.

  3. Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

  4. Low-Complexity Multiple Description Coding of Video Based on 3D Block Transforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Norkin

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a multiple description (MD video coder based on three-dimensional (3D transforms. Two balanced descriptions are created from a video sequence. In the encoder, video sequence is represented in a form of coarse sequence approximation (shaper included in both descriptions and residual sequence (details which is split between two descriptions. The shaper is obtained by block-wise pruned 3D-DCT. The residual sequence is coded by 3D-DCT or hybrid, LOT+DCT, 3D-transform. The coding scheme is targeted to mobile devices. It has low computational complexity and improved robustness of transmission over unreliable networks. The coder is able to work at very low redundancies. The coding scheme is simple, yet it outperforms some MD coders based on motion-compensated prediction, especially in the low-redundancy region. The margin is up to 3 dB for reconstruction from one description.

  5. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Viglione

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This is the third of a three-part paper series through which we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. Whereas the two previous papers by Parajka et al. (2013 and Salinas et al. (2013 assess the regionalisation performance of hydrographs and hydrological extremes on the basis of a comprehensive literature review of thousands of case studies around the world, in this paper we jointly assess prediction performance of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent and rich dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-kriging, a geostatistical estimation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff time-series, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrographs. The predictive performance is assessed in terms of the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation (blind testing mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that, in Austria, the predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and for most signatures, it tends to increase with elevation for the regionalised rainfall–runoff model, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows in ungauged basins is the most difficult to estimate followed by the low flows. It also turns out that in this data-rich study in Austria, the geostatistical approach (Top-kriging generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model.

  6. Predicting Airport Screening Officers' Visual Search Competency With a Rapid Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitroff, Stephen R; Ericson, Justin M; Sharpe, Benjamin

    2017-11-01

    Objective The study's objective was to assess a new personnel selection and assessment tool for aviation security screeners. A mobile app was modified to create a tool, and the question was whether it could predict professional screeners' on-job performance. Background A variety of professions (airport security, radiology, the military, etc.) rely on visual search performance-being able to detect targets. Given the importance of such professions, it is necessary to maximize performance, and one means to do so is to select individuals who excel at visual search. A critical question is whether it is possible to predict search competency within a professional search environment. Method Professional searchers from the USA Transportation Security Administration (TSA) completed a rapid assessment on a tablet-based X-ray simulator (XRAY Screener, derived from the mobile technology app Airport Scanner; Kedlin Company). The assessment contained 72 trials that were simulated X-ray images of bags. Participants searched for prohibited items and tapped on them with their finger. Results Performance on the assessment significantly related to on-job performance measures for the TSA officers such that those who were better XRAY Screener performers were both more accurate and faster at the actual airport checkpoint. Conclusion XRAY Screener successfully predicted on-job performance for professional aviation security officers. While questions remain about the underlying cognitive mechanisms, this quick assessment was found to significantly predict on-job success for a task that relies on visual search performance. Application It may be possible to quickly assess an individual's visual search competency, which could help organizations select new hires and assess their current workforce.

  7. How Long Does Craving Predict Use of Methamphetamine? Assessment of Use One to Seven Weeks After the Assessment of Craving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gantt P. Galloway

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: This study lays the foundation for a clinical prediction model based on methamphetamine craving intensity and its ability to predict the presence or absence of within-treatment methamphetamine use.Design: We used a random effects logistic approach for estimating repeated-measures, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM using craving as the sole predictor of methamphetamine. A multivariate GLMM included craving, length of treatment, treatment assignment, and methamphetamine use the previous week as covariates to control for potential confounds. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC analyses to evaluate predictive accuracy. We investigated further whether methamphetamine craving predicted subsequent use more accurately at intervals more proximal to versus those more distal to assessment, examining one-week periods ending one to seven weeks after assessment of craving.Setting: The study was part of the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment (CSAT Methamphetamine Treatment Project (MTP.Subjects: Analyses were based on data from 691 methamphetamine dependent outpatients enrolled in the MTP.Measurements: Craving was assessed by self-report on a 0–100 scale. Self-reported methamphetamine use was toxicologically verified. Craving and drug use were assessed weekly for 8 weeks.Findings: In the univariate analysis craving predicted methamphetamine use in the week immediately following the craving report (p <0.0001, with subject-specific use increasing 0.38% for each one-point increase in craving on a 0–100 scale. In the multivariate analysis the probability of use decreased by 2.45% for each week in treatment, increased by 33.11% for previous methamphetamine use, and the probability of methamphetamine use still increased with craving, rising 0.28% for each one-point increase in craving score (all p <0.0001. Predictive accuracy was strongest at the one-week time-lag and declined in magnitude the more distal the assessment period

  8. How Long Does Craving Predict Use of Methamphetamine? Assessment of Use One to Seven Weeks after the Assessment of Craving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gantt P. Galloway

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims This study lays the foundation for a clinical prediction model based on methamphetamine craving intensity and its ability to predict the presence or absence of within-treatment methamphetamine use. Design We used a random effects logistic approach for estimating repeated-measures, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM using craving as the sole predictor of methamphetamine. A multivariate GLMM included craving, length of treatment, treatment assignment, and methamphetamine use the previous week as covariates to control for potential confounds. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC analyses to evaluate predictive accuracy. We investigated further whether methamphetamine craving predicted subsequent use more accurately at intervals more proximal to versus those more distal to assessment, examining one-week periods ending one to seven weeks after assessment of craving. Setting The study was part of the Center for Substance Abuse Treatment (CSAT Methamphetamine Treatment Project (MTP. Subjects Analyses were based on data from 691 methamphetamine dependent outpatients enrolled in the MTP. Measurements Craving was assessed by self-report on a 0–100 scale. Self-reported methamphetamine use was toxicologically verified. Craving and drug use were assessed weekly for 8 weeks. Findings In the univariate analysis craving predicted methamphetamine use in the week immediately following the craving report (p < 0.0001, with subject-specific use increasing 0.38% for each one-point increase in craving on a 0–100 scale. In the multivariate analysis the probability of use decreased by 2.45% for each week in treatment increased by 33.11% for previous methamphetamine use, and the probability of methamphetamine use still increased with craving, rising 0.28% for each one-point increase in craving score (all p < 0.0001. Predictive accuracy was strongest at the one-week time-lag and declined in magnitude the more distal the assessment period

  9. Performance of risk assessment instruments for predicting osteoporotic fracture risk: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayak, S; Edwards, D L; Saleh, A A; Greenspan, S L

    2014-01-01

    We systematically reviewed the literature on the performance of osteoporosis absolute fracture risk assessment instruments. Relatively few studies have evaluated the calibration of instruments in populations separate from their development cohorts, and findings are mixed. Many studies had methodological limitations making susceptibility to bias a concern. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature on the performance of osteoporosis clinical fracture risk assessment instruments for predicting absolute fracture risk, or calibration, in populations other than their derivation cohorts. We performed a systematic review, and MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and multiple other literature sources were searched. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied and data extracted, including information about study participants, study design, potential sources of bias, and predicted and observed fracture probabilities. A total of 19,949 unique records were identified for review. Fourteen studies met inclusion criteria. There was substantial heterogeneity among included studies. Six studies assessed the WHO's Fracture Risk Assessment (FRAX) instrument in five separate cohorts, and a variety of risk assessment instruments were evaluated in the remainder of the studies. Approximately half found good instrument calibration, with observed fracture probabilities being close to predicted probabilities for different risk categories. Studies that assessed the calibration of FRAX found mixed performance in different populations. A similar proportion of studies that evaluated simple risk assessment instruments (≤5 variables) found good calibration when compared with studies that assessed complex instruments (>5 variables). Many studies had methodological features making them susceptible to bias. Few studies have evaluated the performance or calibration of osteoporosis fracture risk assessment instruments in populations separate from their development cohorts

  10. Predicting Grades from an English Language Assessment: The Importance of Peeling the Onion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgeman, Brent; Cho, Yeonsuk; DiPietro, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Data from 787 international undergraduate students at an urban university in the United States were used to demonstrate the importance of separating a sample into meaningful subgroups in order to demonstrate the ability of an English language assessment to predict the first-year grade point average (GPA). For example, when all students were pooled…

  11. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  12. Combined Thoracic Ultrasound Assessment during a Successful Weaning Trial Predicts Postextubation Distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Stein; Ait Aissa, Dalinda; Cocquet, Pierre; Hoarau, Lucille; Ruiz, Jean; Ferre, Fabrice; Rousset, David; Mora, Michel; Mari, Arnaud; Fourcade, Olivier; Riu, Béatrice; Jaber, Samir; Bataille, Bénoît

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies suggest that isolated sonographic assessment of the respiratory, cardiac, or neuromuscular functions in mechanically ventilated patients may assist in identifying patients at risk of postextubation distress. The aim of the present study was to prospectively investigate the value of an integrated thoracic ultrasound evaluation, encompassing bedside respiratory, cardiac, and diaphragm sonographic data in predicting postextubation distress. Longitudinal ultrasound data from 136 patients who were extubated after passing a trial of pressure support ventilation were measured immediately after the start and at the end of this trial. In case of postextubation distress (31 of 136 patients), an additional combined ultrasound assessment was performed while the patient was still in acute respiratory failure. We applied machine-learning methods to improve the accuracy of the related predictive assessments. Overall, integrated thoracic ultrasound models accurately predict postextubation distress when applied to thoracic ultrasound data immediately recorded before the start and at the end of the trial of pressure support ventilation (learning sample area under the curve: start, 0.921; end, 0.951; test sample area under the curve: start, 0.972; end, 0.920). Among integrated thoracic ultrasound data, the recognition of lung interstitial edema and the increased telediastolic left ventricular pressure were the most relevant predictive factors. In addition, the use of thoracic ultrasound appeared to be highly accurate in identifying the causes of postextubation distress. The decision to attempt extubation could be significantly assisted by an integrative, dynamic, and fully bedside ultrasonographic assessment of cardiac, lung, and diaphragm functions.

  13. Predicting Academic Success with Early, Middle, and Late Semester Assessment of Student-Instructor Rapport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, William J.; Gillaspy, J. Arthur, Jr.; Hancock, Felecia

    2017-01-01

    We used a brief scale to measure student-instructor rapport and assessed the degree to which student's perceived rapport at the beginning, middle, and end of the semester predicted final course grades in a traditional course. Results showed a positive correlation between rapport scores and final grades such that rapport at each of the time points…

  14. About article "Construct and predictive validity of clinical caries diagnostic criteria assessing lesion activity."

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch, Jaap J. ten; Huysmans, Marie-Charlotte D.N.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Letter to the editor about article: Nyvad B, Machiulskiene V, Baelum V (2003). Construct and predictive validity of clinical caries diagnostic criteria assessing lesion activity. J Dent Res 82:117-122. Published in: J Dent Res 82(11):862-863, 2003

  15. Advancing individual tree biomass prediction: assessment and alternatives to the component ratio method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron Weiskittel; Jereme Frank; David Walker; Phil Radtke; David Macfarlane; James. Westfall

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of forest biomass and carbon is becoming important issues in the United States. However, estimating forest biomass and carbon is difficult and relies on empirically-derived regression equations. Based on recent findings from a national gap analysis and comprehensive assessment of the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (USFS-FIA) component...

  16. Using Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors to Predict Inpatient Aggression: Reliability and Validity of START Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmarais, Sarah L.; Nicholls, Tonia L.; Wilson, Catherine M.; Brink, Johann

    2012-01-01

    The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a relatively new structured professional judgment guide for the assessment and management of short-term risks associated with mental, substance use, and personality disorders. The scheme may be distinguished from other violence risk instruments because of its inclusion of 20 dynamic factors that are rated in terms of both vulnerability and strength. This study examined the reliability and validity of START assessments in predicting inpatient aggression. Research assistants completed START assessments for 120 male forensic psychiatric patients through review of hospital files. They additionally completed Historical-Clinical-Risk Management – 20 (HCR-20) and the Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) assessments. Outcome data was coded from hospital files for a 12-month follow-up period using the Overt Aggression Scale (OAS). START assessments evidenced excellent interrater reliability and demonstrated both predictive and incremental validity over the HCR-20 Historical subscale scores and PCL:SV total scores. Overall, results support the reliability and validity of START assessments, and use of the structured professional judgment approach more broadly, as well as the value of using dynamic risk and protective factors to assess violence risk. PMID:22250595

  17. Linear prediction of atmospheric wave-fronts for tomographic adaptive optics systems: modelling and robustness assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Kate; Correia, Carlos; Lardière, Olivier; Andersen, Dave; Bradley, Colin

    2015-01-15

    We use a theoretical framework to analytically assess temporal prediction error functions on von-Kármán turbulence when a zonal representation of wavefronts is assumed. The linear prediction models analyzed include auto-regressive of an order up to three, bilinear interpolation functions, and a minimum mean square error predictor. This is an extension of the authors' previously published work Correia et al. [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A31, 101 (2014)JOAOD61084-752910.1364/JOSAA.31.000101], in which the efficacy of various temporal prediction models was established. Here we examine the tolerance of these algorithms to specific forms of model errors, thus defining the expected change in behavior of the previous results under less ideal conditions. Results show that ±100% wind speed error and ±50  deg are tolerable before the best linear predictor delivers poorer performance than the no-prediction case.

  18. Assessment of basic human performance resources predicts operative performance of laparoscopic surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettman, Matthew T; Kondraske, George V; Traxer, Olivier; Ogan, Ken; Napper, Cheryl; Jones, Daniel B; Pearle, Margaret S; Cadeddu, Jeffrey A

    2003-09-01

    Interest in laparoscopic surgery has prompted development of educational programs designed to teach and assess laparoscopic skills. Although these programs are beneficial, because of the inherent demands imposed by laparoscopy some aspects of operative performance might not improve with practice. This suggests that innate ability could predict level of operative skill. Assessment of operative and technical potential to date has relied largely on subjective rather than objective criteria. In this study, the relationships between objective measures of human basic performance resources (BPRs) and laparoscopic performance were evaluated using Nonlinear Causal Resource Analysis (NCRA), a novel predictive and explanatory modeling approach based on General Systems Performance Theory. Twenty urology residents were voluntary enrolled. Thirteen validated BPRs were measured and analyzed relative to operative laparoscopic performance (assessed by two experts) of two porcine laparoscopic nephrectomies (LN). The laparoscopic procedure, representing a High Level Task (HLT), was evaluated using a modified Global Rating of Operative Performance Scale. NCRA models were devised to predict performance of the HLT laparoscopic nephrectomies based on BPRs and to determine the limiting performance resource. NCRA models predicted excellent agreement with actual operative performance, suggesting that measures of innate ability (or BPRs) predicted performance of laparoscopic nephrectomy. In 65%, the prediction by NCRA was near identical to the expert rating on the HLT. In 25% of cases, NCRA overpredicted performance; in 10%, NCRA underpredicted performance of the HLT compared to the subjective ratings. Neuromotor channel capacity was the most common performance-limiting resource. Preliminary findings suggest objective prediction of laparoscopic performance with limiting resource diagnostics for an individual surgeon is possible and practical using appropriate new measurement and modeling

  19. Predictive vs. empiric assessment of schistosomiasis: implications for treatment projections in Ghana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achille Kabore

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mapping the distribution of schistosomiasis is essential to determine where control programs should operate, but because it is impractical to assess infection prevalence in every potentially endemic community, model-based geostatistics (MBG is increasingly being used to predict prevalence and determine intervention strategies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To assess the accuracy of MBG predictions for Schistosoma haematobium infection in Ghana, school surveys were evaluated at 79 sites to yield empiric prevalence values that could be compared with values derived from recently published MBG predictions. Based on these findings schools were categorized according to WHO guidelines so that practical implications of any differences could be determined. Using the mean predicted values alone, 21 of the 25 empirically determined 'high-risk' schools requiring yearly praziquantel would have been undertreated and almost 20% of the remaining schools would have been treated despite empirically-determined absence of infection - translating into 28% of the children in the 79 schools being undertreated and 12% receiving treatment in the absence of any demonstrated need. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using the current predictive map for Ghana as a spatial decision support tool by aggregating prevalence estimates to the district level was clearly not adequate for guiding the national program, but the alternative of assessing each school in potentially endemic areas of Ghana or elsewhere is not at all feasible; modelling must be a tool complementary to empiric assessments. Thus for practical usefulness, predictive risk mapping should not be thought of as a one-time exercise but must, as in the current study, be an iterative process that incorporates empiric testing and model refining to create updated versions that meet the needs of disease control operational managers.

  20. Learners' Use of Communication Strategies in Text-Based and Video-Based Synchronous Computer-Mediated Communication Environments: Opportunities for Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Yu-Wan; Higgins, Steve

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the different learning opportunities enabled by text-based and video-based synchronous computer-mediated communication (SCMC) from an interactionist perspective. Six Chinese-speaking learners of English and six English-speaking learners of Chinese were paired up as tandem (reciprocal) learning dyads. Each dyad participated…

  1. Construct-driven development of a video-based situational judgment test for integrity : A study in a multi-ethnic police setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.A.L. de Meijer (Lonneke); M.Ph. Born (Marise); J. van Zielst (Jaap); H.T. van der Molen (Henk)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn a field study conducted in a multi-ethnic selection setting at the Dutch police, we examined the construct validity of a video-based situational judgment test (SJT) aimed to measure the construct of integrity. Integrity is of central importance to productive work performance of police

  2. Comparing Learning Outcomes of Video-Based E-Learning with Face-to-Face Lectures of Agricultural Engineering Courses in Korean Agricultural High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Youl; Kim, Soo-Wook; Cha, Seung-Bong; Nam, Min-Woo

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the effectiveness of e-learning by comparing the learning outcomes in conventional face-to-face lectures and e-learning methods. Two video-based e-learning contents were developed based on the rapid prototyping model and loaded onto the learning management system (LMS), which was available at http://www.greenehrd.com.…

  3. The Effect of Motion Analysis Activities in a Video-Based Laboratory in Students' Understanding of Position, Velocity and Frames of Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleza, Eugenia; Pappas, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we present the results of a qualitative research project on the effect of motion analysis activities in a Video-Based Laboratory (VBL) on students' understanding of position, velocity and frames of reference. The participants in our research were 48 pre-service teachers enrolled in Education Departments with no previous strong…

  4. Effects of Video-Based Cooperative, Competitive and Individualized Instructional Strategies on the Performance of Senior Secondary Schools Students in Geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gambari, Amosa Isiaka; Shittu, Ahmed Tajudeen; Daramola, Florence Olutunu; James, Moses

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the effects of video-based cooperative, competitive and individualized instructional strategies on the performance of senior secondary schools' students in geometry in Nigeria. It also examined the influence of gender on students' achievement. Pretest, posttest, experimental control group design was adopted for this study.…

  5. Pregnancy Prevention at Her Fingertips: A Text- and Mobile Video-Based Pilot Intervention to Promote Contraceptive Methods among College Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh-Buhi, Eric R.; Helmy, Hannah; Harsch, Kristin; Rella, Natalie; Godcharles, Cheryl; Ogunrunde, Adejoke; Lopez Castillo, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This paper reports on a pilot study evaluating the feasibility and acceptability of a text- and mobile video-based intervention to educate women and men attending college about non-daily contraception, with a particular focus on long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). A secondary objective is to describe the process of intervention…

  6. A video-based real-time adaptive vehicle-counting system for urban roads.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Liu

    Full Text Available In developing nations, many expanding cities are facing challenges that result from the overwhelming numbers of people and vehicles. Collecting real-time, reliable and precise traffic flow information is crucial for urban traffic management. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an adaptive model that can assess the real-time vehicle counts on urban roads using computer vision technologies. This paper proposes an automatic real-time background update algorithm for vehicle detection and an adaptive pattern for vehicle counting based on the virtual loop and detection line methods. In addition, a new robust detection method is introduced to monitor the real-time traffic congestion state of road section. A prototype system has been developed and installed on an urban road for testing. The results show that the system is robust, with a real-time counting accuracy exceeding 99% in most field scenarios.

  7. Use of a Measure of Reading Comprehension to Enhance Prediction on the State High Stakes Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Edward S; Solari, Emily; Petscher, Yaacov

    The current study examined the diagnostic accuracy of two screening measures of risk for future difficulties in reading comprehension, as well as the degree to which adding a screening measure of reading comprehension enhanced the prediction of Oral Reading Fluency to outcomes of student reading performance on the state high stakes assessment for grades 3 through 5. Data from fall and winter assessments of the DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and 4Sight Benchmark Assessment (4Sight) measures along with outcomes on the Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) across a total of 1000 students from 6 schools were examined using indices of diagnostic efficiency, ROC curve, and logistic regression analyses. Results showed that the addition of a measure of reading comprehension (4Sight) to DORF enhanced the decision making process for identifying students at risk for reading difficulties, especially for those students at higher elementary grades and those who achieved benchmark levels on the DORF. Although DORF alone showed a good level of prediction to the statewide assessment, the combination of the DORF plus 4Sight measures resulted consistently in the best predictive outcomes. Suggestions are made to consider alternative cut points for the DORF and 4Sight measures.

  8. [Eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure: assessment and development prediction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang; Zhu, Li-Qun; Zhang, Si-Wei; Zhang, Pei-Qi; Xu, Min-Lun; Bian, Xin-Min

    2012-11-01

    Based on the 'three critical points' theory of eco-fitness, and by using dynamic weighting and fitting methods, an assessment system for the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was constructed, and, taking Zhangqiu of Shandong Province, East China as a case, the eco-fitness of county-level agricultural leading industry structure was assessed and predicted. Due to the limited agro-ecological resources, the comprehensive eco-fitness index of four kinds of agricultural leading industry in Zhangqiu presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2010, but a downward trend from 2011 to 2015. The eco-fitness indices of oil crops and fruits would be negative in 2015. The applied research in Zhangqiu confirmed the validity of the assessment system constructed for the eco-fitness of county-level agriculture leading industry structure and the rationality of the prediction model.

  9. [Predictive value of three preoperative nutritional assessment methods in postoperative complications of gastrointestinal cancers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dong; He, Jun; Huang, Qiu-lin

    2013-11-01

    To compare the value of three preoperative nutritional assessment methods, European nutrition risk screening 2002(NRS 2002), mini-nutrition assessment(MNA) and subjective global assessment(SGA), in predicting postoperative complications of gastrointestinal cancer patients. A total of 235 patients with gastrointestinal cancers, including 31 esophageal cancers, 82 gastric cancers, and 122 colorectal cancers, in our hospital from January 2012 to June 2013 were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative nutritional status was evaluated with above 3 methods respectively. Postoperative complication rates were compared among different preoperative nutritional status. According to SGA score, the morbidity of severe-moderate, mild and no malnourished patients was 40.5%(17/42), 25.3%(22/87) and 14.2%(15/106) respectively(P0.05). Multiple regression analysis revealed that both SGA and MNA scores were predictive factors for the development of postoperative complications(both Pnutrition support.

  10. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP)-round IX

    KAUST Repository

    Moult, John

    2011-01-01

    This article is an introduction to the special issue of the journal PROTEINS, dedicated to the ninth Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to assess the state of the art in protein structure modeling. The article describes the conduct of the experiment, the categories of prediction included, and outlines the evaluation and assessment procedures. Methods for modeling protein structure continue to advance, although at a more modest pace than in the early CASP experiments. CASP developments of note are indications of improvement in model accuracy for some classes of target, an improved ability to choose the most accurate of a set of generated models, and evidence of improvement in accuracy for short "new fold" models. In addition, a new analysis of regions of models not derivable from the most obvious template structure has revealed better performance than expected.

  11. Video-based educational intervention associated with improved stroke literacy, self-efficacy, and patient satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mary Carter; Vahidy, Farhaan; Vu, Kim Y T; Sharrief, Anjail Z; Savitz, Sean I

    2017-01-01

    Interventions are needed to improve stroke literacy among recent stroke survivors. We developed an educational video for patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). A 5-minute stroke education video was shown to our AIS and ICH patients admitted from March to June 2015. Demographics and a 5-minute protocol Montreal Cognitive Assessment were also collected. Questions related to stroke knowledge, self-efficacy, and patient satisfaction were answered before, immediately after, and 30 days after the video. Among 250 screened, 102 patients consented, and 93 completed the video intervention. There was a significant difference between pre-video median knowledge score of 6 (IQR 4-7) and the post-video score of 7 (IQR 6-8; pvideo and the 30 day score of 7 (IQR 5-8; p = 0.04). There was a significant difference between the proportion of patients who were very certain in recognizing symptoms of a stroke pre- and post-video, which was maintained at 30-days (35.5% vs. 53.5%, p = 0.01; 35.5% vs. 54.4%, p = 0.02). The proportion who were "very satisfied" with their education post-video (74.2%) was significantly higher than pre-video (49.5%, pvideo was associated with improved stroke knowledge, self-efficacy in recognizing stroke symptoms, and satisfaction with education in hospitalized stroke patients, which was maintained at 30 days after discharge.

  12. The Comparative Instructional Effectiveness of Print-Based and Video-Based Instructional Materials for Teaching Practical Skills at a Distance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Donkor

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Print-based instructional materials have been more popular than any other medium for teaching practical skills during the delivery of technical and vocational education and training via distance learning. However, the approach has its shortcomings and in recent times alternatives have been sought. The comparative instructional effectiveness of one such alternative is the focus of this paper. The study sought to examine the instructional effectiveness of video-based instructional materials vis-à-vis traditional print-based instructional materials for teaching distance learners of a Block-Laying and Concreting practical skills programme. An experimental design was used and participants were randomly assigned to two treatment groups: Users of video-based instructional materials or users of print-based instructional materials. A researcher-designed performance test and an achievement test of 20 multiple-choice items were used to collect data from 34 participants who used print-based instructional materials and 35 participants who used video-based instructional materials to learn practical skills. The instruments were based on the instructional objectives of lessons on mortar and wall finish. Pilot test data for the achievement test yielded Cronbach’s alpha of 0.84. Descriptive statistics and t-test at a 0.05 level of significance were used to analyse the data. The results indicated that the two instructional materials were pedagogically equivalent in terms of theoretical knowledge acquired. Practical skills acquired, however, were significantly higher among users of video-based instructional materials. Finally, users of video-based instructional materials displayed significantly superior craftsmanship.

  13. Liver Stiffness Assessed by Shear Wave Elastography Predicts Postoperative Liver Failure in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yinghao; Zhou, Chenhao; Zhu, Guodong; Shi, Guoming; Zhu, Xiaodong; Huang, Cheng; Zhou, Jian; Fan, Jia; Ding, Hong; Ren, Ning; Sun, Hui-Chuan

    2017-09-01

    Cirrhosis increases a patient's risk of developing postoperative liver failure (PLF). Liver stiffness (LS), assessed by two-dimensional shear wave elastography (SWE), indicates liver fibrosis with high accuracy. Whether LS is superior to portal hypertension (PHT) in predicting PLF remains to be studied. The study enrolled 280 patients who underwent hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma from July 2015 to July 2016. All patients received preoperative assessments for LS, PHT, and serum markers of liver fibrosis in addition to other clinicopathological tests. Risk factors for grade A and grade B (or greater) PLF were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Fifty-five patients (19.6%) experienced PLF. The cutoff value of LS for predicting cirrhosis was 10.1 kPa. Multivariate analysis identified LS, hyaluronic acid, IV collagen, and the presence of splenomegaly as independent predictors of PLF. The cutoff value of LS for predicting PLF and grade B (or greater) PLF was 11.75 and 11.9 kPa, respectively. LS was superior to PHT in predicting PLF or greater than grade B PLF (0.72 vs. 0.60, 0.76 vs. 0.59, P < 0.05). LS measured by SWE can predict risk of PLF with greater accuracy than PHT.

  14. Nutritional assessment: comparison of clinical assessment and objective variables for the prediction of length of hospital stay and readmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeejeebhoy, Khursheed N; Keller, Heather; Gramlich, Leah; Allard, Johane P; Laporte, Manon; Duerksen, Donald R; Payette, Helene; Bernier, Paule; Vesnaver, Elisabeth; Davidson, Bridget; Teterina, Anastasia; Lou, Wendy

    2015-05-01

    Nutritional assessment commonly includes multiple nutrition indicators (NIs). To promote efficiency, a minimum set is needed for the diagnosis of malnutrition in the acute care setting. The objective was to compare the ability of different NIs to predict outcomes of length of hospital stay and readmission to refine the detection of malnutrition in acute care. This was a prospective cohort study of 1022 patients recruited from 18 acute care hospitals (academic and community), from 8 provinces across Canada, between 1 July 2010 and 28 February 2013. Participants were patients aged ≥18 y admitted to medical and surgical wards. NIs measured at admission were subjective global assessment (SGA; SGA A = well nourished, SGA B = mild or moderate malnutrition, and SGA C = severe malnutrition), Nutrition Risk Screening (2002), body weight, midarm and calf circumference, serum albumin, handgrip strength (HGS), and patient-self assessment of food intake. Logistic regression determined the independent effect of NIs on the outcomes of length of hospital stay (Nutrition.

  15. Puppy Temperament Assessments Predict Breed and American Kennel Club Group but Not Adult Temperament.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Lauren M; Skiver Thompson, Rebekah; Ha, James C

    2016-01-01

    Puppy assessments for companion dogs have shown mixed long-term reliability. Temperament is cited among the reasons for surrendering dogs to shelters. A puppy temperament test that reliably predicts adult behavior is one potential way to lower the number of dogs given to shelters. This study used a longitudinal design to assess temperament in puppies from 8 different breeds at 7 weeks old (n = 52) and 6 years old (n = 34) using modified temperament tests, physiological measures, and a follow-up questionnaire. For 7-week-old puppies, results revealed (a) puppy breed was predictable using 3 variables, (b) 4 American Kennel Club breed groups had some validity based on temperament, (c) temperament was variable within litters of puppies, and (d) certain measures of temperament were related to physiological measures (heart rate). Finally, puppy temperament assessments were reliable in predicting the scores of 2 of the 8 adult dog temperament measures. However, overall, the puppy temperament scores were unreliable in predicting adult temperament.

  16. Assessment of 3D Codes for Predicting Liner Attenuation in Flow Ducts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, W. R.; Nark, D. M.; Jones, M. G.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents comparisons of seven propagation codes for predicting liner attenuation in ducts with flow. The selected codes span the spectrum of methods available (finite element, parabolic approximation, and pseudo-time domain) and are collectively representative of the state-of-art in the liner industry. These codes are included because they have two-dimensional and three-dimensional versions and can be exported to NASA's Columbia Supercomputer. The basic assumptions, governing differential equations, boundary conditions, and numerical methods underlying each code are briefly reviewed and an assessment is performed based on two predefined metrics. The two metrics used in the assessment are the accuracy of the predicted attenuation and the amount of wall clock time to predict the attenuation. The assessment is performed over a range of frequencies, mean flow rates, and grazing flow liner impedances commonly used in the liner industry. The primary conclusions of the study are (1) predicted attenuations are in good agreement for rigid wall ducts, (2) the majority of codes compare well to each other and to approximate results from mode theory for soft wall ducts, (3) most codes compare well to measured data on a statistical basis, (4) only the finite element codes with cubic Hermite polynomials capture extremely large attenuations, and (5) wall clock time increases by an order of magnitude or more are observed for a three-dimensional code relative to the corresponding two-dimensional version of the same code.

  17. Factors predicting the outcome of disease activity assessment in Crohn's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stjernman, Henrik; Tysk, Curt; Almer, Sven; Ström, Magnus; Hjortswang, Henrik

    2009-12-01

    The Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) has become the gold standard for assessment of disease activity in CD. This study investigated the relationship between CDAI and the physicians' global assessment of disease activity (PGA) and whether different demographic and disease-related factors predict the outcome. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between CDAI and PGA obtained from 405 CD patients. Predictors of the CDAI and the PGA outcome were identified. The correlation between CDAI and PGA was moderate. In patients with CDAI >150, 72% of the total score were derived from the subjective variables. The regression coefficients were not significant for 3 of the CDAI variables. In regression analysis, C-reactive protein (CRP), stenosis, smoking, bowel resection, concomitant disease, and gender predicted the CDAI outcome. The PGA outcome was predicted only by CRP, stenosis, and fistula. The correlation between CDAI and PGA was moderate and the subjective variables had a high impact on CDAI. Factors with no obvious relation to inflammatory activity predicted the outcome of CDAI, but not PGA. In trials of CD therapies, separation of subjective (symptoms, well-being) from objective (endoscopy, inflammatory markers) variables should be considered in the assessment of disease activity. Copyright © 2009 Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc.

  18. Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form predicts exacerbation frequency in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, Masanori; Fujita, Yukio; Yamamoto, Yoshifumi; Yamauchi, Motoo; Tomoda, Koichi; Koyama, Noriko; Kimura, Hiroshi

    2014-11-01

    Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a major cause of morbidity, mortality and reduced health status. Thus, to predict and prevent exacerbations is essential for the management of COPD. The aims of this study were to determine whether nutritional status as assessed by the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form (MNA-SF) predicts COPD exacerbation and to compare the ability of the MNA-SF to predict COPD exacerbation with that of the COPD Assessment Test (CAT). Pulmonary function, the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale and body mass index (BMI) were evaluated in 60 stable patients with COPD (mean age, 72 years; mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 ), 51.1% predicted). The MNA-SF and CAT were also completed. Exacerbations were recorded prospectively for 1 year after the initial assessment. The mean MNA-SF score was 11.4 ± 2.4 (well nourished, 51%; at risk, 37%; and malnourished, 12%). The mean CAT score was 14.4 ± 7.5 (low impact, 37%; medium impact, 38%; high impact, 20%; and very high impact, 5%). The CAT scores were significantly associated with the mMRC scale and %FEV₁, but were not associated with BMI and the MNA-SF score. The exacerbation frequency was associated with the MNA-SF score but not with the CAT score. The MNA-SF predicts COPD exacerbation independently of the CAT. © 2014 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  19. A predictive assessment of genetic correlations between traits in chickens using markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Momen, Mehdi; Mehrgardi, Ahmad Ayatollahi; Sheikhy, Ayoub; Esmailizadeh, Ali; Fozi, Masood Asadi; Kranis, Andreas; Valente, Bruno D; Rosa, Guilherme J M; Gianola, Daniel

    2017-02-01

    Genomic selection has been successfully implemented in plant and animal breeding programs to shorten generation intervals and accelerate genetic progress per unit of time. In practice, genomic selection can be used to improve several correlated traits simultaneously via multiple-trait prediction, which exploits correlations between traits. However, few studies have explored multiple-trait genomic selection. Our aim was to infer genetic correlations between three traits measured in broiler chickens by exploring kinship matrices based on a linear combination of measures of pedigree and marker-based relatedness. A predictive assessment was used to gauge genetic correlations. A multivariate genomic best linear unbiased prediction model was designed to combine information from pedigree and genome-wide markers in order to assess genetic correlations between three complex traits in chickens, i.e. body weight at 35 days of age (BW), ultrasound area of breast meat (BM) and hen-house egg production (HHP). A dataset with 1351 birds that were genotyped with the 600 K Affymetrix platform was used. A kinship kernel (K) was constructed as K = λ G + (1 - λ)A, where A is the numerator relationship matrix, measuring pedigree-based relatedness, and G is a genomic relationship matrix. The weight (λ) assigned to each source of information varied over the grid λ = (0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1). Maximum likelihood estimates of heritability and genetic correlations were obtained at each λ, and the "optimum" λ was determined using cross-validation. Estimates of genetic correlations were affected by the weight placed on the source of information used to build K. For example, the genetic correlation between BW-HHP and BM-HHP changed markedly when λ varied from 0 (only A used for measuring relatedness) to 1 (only genomic information used). As λ increased, predictive correlations (correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values) increased and mean

  20. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  1. Assessing the accuracy of template-based structure prediction metaservers by comparison with structural genomics structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gront, Dominik; Grabowski, Marek; Zimmerman, Matthew D; Raynor, John; Tkaczuk, Karolina L; Minor, Wladek

    2012-12-01

    The explosion of the size of the universe of known protein sequences has stimulated two complementary approaches to structural mapping of these sequences: theoretical structure prediction and experimental determination by structural genomics (SG). In this work, we assess the accuracy of structure prediction by two automated template-based structure prediction metaservers (genesilico.pl and bioinfo.pl) by measuring the structural similarity of the predicted models to corresponding experimental models determined a posteriori. Of 199 targets chosen from SG programs, the metaservers predicted the structures of about a fourth of them "correctly." (In this case, "correct" was defined as placing more than 70 % of the alpha carbon atoms in the model within 2 Å of the experimentally determined positions.) Almost all of the targets that could be modeled to this accuracy were those with an available template in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) with more than 25 % sequence identity. The majority of those SG targets with lower sequence identity to structures in the PDB were not predicted by the metaservers with this accuracy. We also compared metaserver results to CASP8 results, finding that the models obtained by participants in the CASP competition were significantly better than those produced by the metaservers.

  2. Psychosocial assessments for young people: a systematic review examining acceptability, disclosure and engagement, and predictive utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, Sally; Rickwood, Debra

    2012-01-01

    Adolescence and young adulthood are often turbulent periods in a person's life. There are high rates of accidental deaths, suicide, mental health concerns, substance use, and sexual experimentation. Health care professionals need to conduct holistic assessments of clients in these developmental life stages to identify psychosocial risks and provide targeted early intervention and implement prevention strategies. The most useful psychosocial assessments for most health care professionals are those that can provide a complete picture of the young person's life and circumstances. This article identifies psychosocial assessment instruments that can be used as an initial assessment and engagement tool with the general population of young people presenting for health care. We review the psychometric properties of each of the instruments, determining what type of instrument is most acceptable to young people, whether any can increase disclosure and improve engagement between young people and health professionals, and whether they have predictive utility. The search strategy complied with the relevant sections of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 89 published articles were identified, covering 31 different assessment instruments. Results indicated that those that were self-administered were most acceptable to young people, although it is unclear whether pen-and-paper or computer formats were preferred. Most psychosocial assessments can improve rates of disclosure and enhance engagement between young people and health professionals; however, worryingly, we found evidence that clinicians did not always respond to some of the most serious identified risks. Only for one instrument was there any mention of predictive utility. Future research should employ longitudinal approaches to determine the predictive utility of psychosocial assessments and focus on whether the use of new technologies can improve rates of

  3. Psychosocial assessments for young people: a systematic review examining acceptability, disclosure and engagement, and predictive utility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradford S

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sally Bradford,1 Debra Rickwood1,21Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, 2Headspace National Youth Mental Health Foundation, North Melbourne, AustraliaAbstract: Adolescence and young adulthood are often turbulent periods in a person’s life. There are high rates of accidental deaths, suicide, mental health concerns, substance use, and sexual experimentation. Health care professionals need to conduct holistic assessments of clients in these developmental life stages to identify psychosocial risks and provide targeted early intervention and implement prevention strategies. The most useful psychosocial assessments for most health care professionals are those that can provide a complete picture of the young person’s life and circumstances. This article identifies psychosocial assessment instruments that can be used as an initial assessment and engagement tool with the general population of young people presenting for health care. We review the psychometric properties of each of the instruments, determining what type of instrument is most acceptable to young people, whether any can increase disclosure and improve engagement between young people and health professionals, and whether they have predictive utility. The search strategy complied with the relevant sections of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA statement. A total of 89 published articles were identified, covering 31 different assessment instruments. Results indicated that those that were self-administered were most acceptable to young people, although it is unclear whether pen-and-paper or computer formats were preferred. Most psychosocial assessments can improve rates of disclosure and enhance engagement between young people and health professionals; however, worryingly, we found evidence that clinicians did not always respond to some of the most serious identified risks. Only for one instrument was there any mention of

  4. A comparison of different functions for predicted protein model quality assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Fang, Huisheng

    2016-07-01

    In protein structure prediction, a considerable number of models are usually produced by either the Template-Based Method (TBM) or the ab initio prediction. The purpose of this study is to find the critical parameter in assessing the quality of the predicted models. A non-redundant template library was developed and 138 target sequences were modeled. The target sequences were all distant from the proteins in the template library and were aligned with template library proteins on the basis of the transformation matrix. The quality of each model was first assessed with QMEAN and its six parameters, which are C_β interaction energy (C_beta), all-atom pairwise energy (PE), solvation energy (SE), torsion angle energy (TAE), secondary structure agreement (SSA), and solvent accessibility agreement (SAE). Finally, the alignment score (score) was also used to assess the quality of model. Hence, a total of eight parameters ( i.e., QMEAN, C_beta, PE, SE, TAE, SSA, SAE, score) were independently used to assess the quality of each model. The results indicate that SSA is the best parameter to estimate the quality of the model.

  5. Approach and Evaluation of a Mobile Video-Based and Location-Based Augmented Reality Platform for Information Brokerage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastageeri, H.; Storz, M.; Koukofikis, A.; Knauth, S.; Coors, V.

    2016-09-01

    Providing mobile location-based information for pedestrians faces many challenges. On one hand the accuracy of localisation indoors and outdoors is restricted due to technical limitations of GPS and Beacons. Then again only a small display is available to display information as well as to develop a user interface. Plus, the software solution has to consider the hardware characteristics of mobile devices during the implementation process for aiming a performance with minimum latency. This paper describes our approach by including a combination of image tracking and GPS or Beacons to ensure orientation and precision of localisation. To communicate the information on Points of Interest (POIs), we decided to choose Augmented Reality (AR). For this concept of operations, we used besides the display also the acceleration and positions sensors as a user interface. This paper especially goes into detail on the optimization of the image tracking algorithms, the development of the video-based AR player for the Android platform and the evaluation of videos as an AR element in consideration of providing a good user experience. For setting up content for the POIs or even generate a tour we used and extended the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard Augmented Reality Markup Language (ARML).

  6. The use of video-based patient education for shared decision-making in the treatment of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomella, L G; Albertsen, P C; Benson, M C; Forman, J D; Soloway, M S

    2000-08-01

    Increased consumerism, patient empowerment, and autonomy are creating a health care revolution. In recent years, the public has become better informed and more sophisticated. An extraordinary amount of treatment advice from books, the media, and the Internet is available to patients today, although much of it is confusing or conflicting. Consequently, the traditional, paternalistic doctor-patient relationship is yielding to a more consumerist one. The new dynamic is based on a participatory ethic and a change in the balance of power. This shared decision-making creates a true partnership between professionals and patients, in which each contributes equally to decisions about treatment or care. Evidence suggests that in diseases such as prostate cancer, where there may be a number of appropriate treatment options for a particular patient, shared decision-making may lead to improved clinical and quality-of-life outcomes. This article explores the evolving relationship between the physician and patient, the pros and cons of shared decision-making, and the use of video technology in the clinical setting. The authors review the use of medical decision aids, including a video-based educational program called CHOICES, in the treatment of prostate cancer and other diseases.

  7. Preparing the foundations for video-based practice-placement support: establishing the role from a students’ perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teri Taylor

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently, many placement-based health programme students within the UK are supported through face-to-face visits from university staff. Whilst cited in literature as being of value, the face-to-face nature of this contact is not supported. Alternatives including video-based communications methods offer the potential for cost effective, environmentally responsible support. However, in order to establish the fitness for purpose of alternative approaches, the content and purpose of current support needs to be understood. This project aimed to investigate student perceptions of the ideal content and purpose of clinical support visits, and alternatives to the current face-to-face approach. Fifty-six Physiotherapy undergraduate students responded to questionnaires with a further nine participating in a follow-up focus group. Participants emphasised the value of the visit in guiding learning, ensuring progression and resolving arising issues, and highlighted concerns over alternative approaches. Focus group participants discussed the importance of personal and professional confidence in directing requirements for support, and went on to propose a menu of options for methods of communication. Whilst limited in some applications, video technologies may be one of the options. Overall, however, this project supports the need for consideration of individualised learning journeys within curriculum planning.

  8. An Energy-Efficient and High-Quality Video Transmission Architecture in Wireless Video-Based Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasaman Samei

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Technological progress in the fields of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS and wireless communications and also the availability of CMOS cameras, microphones and small-scale array sensors, which may ubiquitously capture multimedia content from the field, have fostered the development of low-cost limited resources Wireless Video-based Sensor Networks (WVSN. With regards to the constraints of videobased sensor nodes and wireless sensor networks, a supporting video stream is not easy to implement with the present sensor network protocols. In this paper, a thorough architecture is presented for video transmission over WVSN called Energy-efficient and high-Quality Video transmission Architecture (EQV-Architecture. This architecture influences three layers of communication protocol stack and considers wireless video sensor nodes constraints like limited process and energy resources while video quality is preserved in the receiver side. Application, transport, and network layers are the layers in which the compression protocol, transport protocol, and routing protocol are proposed respectively, also a dropping scheme is presented in network layer. Simulation results over various environments with dissimilar conditions revealed the effectiveness of the architecture in improving the lifetime of the network as well as preserving the video quality.

  9. An Energy-Efficient and High-Quality Video Transmission Architecture in Wireless Video-Based Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghdasi, Hadi S; Abbaspour, Maghsoud; Moghadam, Mohsen Ebrahimi; Samei, Yasaman

    2008-08-04

    Technological progress in the fields of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and wireless communications and also the availability of CMOS cameras, microphones and small-scale array sensors, which may ubiquitously capture multimedia content from the field, have fostered the development of low-cost limited resources Wireless Video-based Sensor Networks (WVSN). With regards to the constraints of videobased sensor nodes and wireless sensor networks, a supporting video stream is not easy to implement with the present sensor network protocols. In this paper, a thorough architecture is presented for video transmission over WVSN called Energy-efficient and high-Quality Video transmission Architecture (EQV-Architecture). This architecture influences three layers of communication protocol stack and considers wireless video sensor nodes constraints like limited process and energy resources while video quality is preserved in the receiver side. Application, transport, and network layers are the layers in which the compression protocol, transport protocol, and routing protocol are proposed respectively, also a dropping scheme is presented in network layer. Simulation results over various environments with dissimilar conditions revealed the effectiveness of the architecture in improving the lifetime of the network as well as preserving the video quality.

  10. APPROACH AND EVALUATION OF A MOBILE VIDEO-BASED AND LOCATION-BASED AUGMENTED REALITY PLATFORM FOR INFORMATION BROKERAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Dastageeri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Providing mobile location-based information for pedestrians faces many challenges. On one hand the accuracy of localisation indoors and outdoors is restricted due to technical limitations of GPS and Beacons. Then again only a small display is available to display information as well as to develop a user interface. Plus, the software solution has to consider the hardware characteristics of mobile devices during the implementation process for aiming a performance with minimum latency. This paper describes our approach by including a combination of image tracking and GPS or Beacons to ensure orientation and precision of localisation. To communicate the information on Points of Interest (POIs, we decided to choose Augmented Reality (AR. For this concept of operations, we used besides the display also the acceleration and positions sensors as a user interface. This paper especially goes into detail on the optimization of the image tracking algorithms, the development of the video-based AR player for the Android platform and the evaluation of videos as an AR element in consideration of providing a good user experience. For setting up content for the POIs or even generate a tour we used and extended the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC standard Augmented Reality Markup Language (ARML.

  11. Clinical Prediction Model and Tool for Assessing Risk of Persistent Pain After Breast Cancer Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meretoja, Tuomo J; Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Bruce, Julie

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Persistent pain after breast cancer surgery is a well-recognized problem, with moderate to severe pain affecting 15% to 20% of women at 1 year from surgery. Several risk factors for persistent pain have been recognized, but tools to identify high-risk patients and preventive interventions...... are missing. The aim was to develop a clinically applicable risk prediction tool. Methods The prediction models were developed and tested using three prospective data sets from Finland (n = 860), Denmark (n = 453), and Scotland (n = 231). Prediction models for persistent pain of moderate to severe intensity...... at 1 year postoperatively were developed by logistic regression analyses in the Finnish patient cohort. The models were tested in two independent cohorts from Denmark and Scotland by assessing the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC-AUCs). The outcome variable was moderate...

  12. Stem Cells, a New Generation Model for Predictive Nano Toxicological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suma, Remya Nirmal; Mohanan, Parayanthala Valappil

    2015-01-01

    With the recent advancement in nanoscience and nanotechnology, there is a growing demand for assessment of the toxicological effects of nano materials to humans and other biological systems. And a predictive toxicology approach that uses in vitro screening assays in conjunction with in vivo study results are widely employed in nano safety evaluation. In recent years stem cells have gained wide attention in the scientific community owing to their potential benefits for various applications in health care systems. Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that have high replicative potential and multilineage differentiation capacity. And therefore, stem cells could be exploited for developing in vitro model systems to study nanomaterials interaction with the biological systems and a potential tool to predict toxicity in humans. The details provided in this article will give an overview of optimizing stem cell technology in predicting the toxicity of nano materials the essential features of the article.

  13. Using Predictive Uncertainty Analysis to Assess Hydrologic Model Performance for a Watershed in Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannan, K. M.; Somor, A.

    2016-12-01

    A variety of statistics are used to assess watershed model performance but these statistics do not directly answer the question: what is the uncertainty of my prediction. Understanding predictive uncertainty is important when using a watershed model to develop a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). TMDLs are a key component of the US Clean Water Act and specify the amount of a pollutant that can enter a waterbody when the waterbody meets water quality criteria. TMDL developers use watershed models to estimate pollutant loads from nonpoint sources of pollution. We are developing a TMDL for bacteria impairments in a watershed in the Coastal Range of Oregon. We setup an HSPF model of the watershed and used the calibration software PEST to estimate HSPF hydrologic parameters and then perform predictive uncertainty analysis of stream flow. We used Monte-Carlo simulation to run the model with 1,000 different parameter sets and assess predictive uncertainty. In order to reduce the chance of specious parameter sets, we accounted for the relationships among parameter values by using mathematically-based regularization techniques and an estimate of the parameter covariance when generating random parameter sets. We used a novel approach to select flow data for predictive uncertainty analysis. We set aside flow data that occurred on days that bacteria samples were collected. We did not use these flows in the estimation of the model parameters. We calculated a percent uncertainty for each flow observation based 1,000 model runs. We also used several methods to visualize results with an emphasis on making the data accessible to both technical and general audiences. We will use the predictive uncertainty estimates in the next phase of our work, simulating bacteria fate and transport in the watershed.

  14. Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Jean E; Coyle, Joseph; Bogue, Conor; Spence, Liam D; Last, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Age estimation in living subjects is primarily achieved through assessment of a hand-wrist radiograph and comparison with a standard reference atlas. Recently, maturation of other regions of the skeleton has also been assessed in an attempt to refine the age estimates. The current study presents a method to predict bone age directly from the knee in a modern Irish sample. Ten maturity indicators (A-J) at the knee were examined from radiographs of 221 subjects (137 males; 84 females). Each indicator was assigned a maturity score. Scores for indicators A-G, H-J and A-J, respectively, were totalled to provide a cumulative maturity score for change in morphology of the epiphyses (AG), epiphyseal union (HJ) and the combination of both (AJ). Linear regression equations to predict age from the maturity scores (AG, HJ, AJ) were constructed for males and females. For males, equation-AJ demonstrated the greatest predictive capability (R(2)=0.775) while for females equation-HJ had the strongest capacity for prediction (R(2)=0.815). When equation-AJ for males and equation-HJ for females were applied to the current sample, the predicted age of 90% of subjects was within ±1.5 years of actual age for male subjects and within +2.0 to -1.9 years of actual age for female subjects. The regression formulae and associated charts represent the most contemporary method of age prediction currently available for an Irish population, and provide a further technique which can contribute to a multifactorial approach to age estimation in non-adults. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connor, Jean E

    2014-01-01

    Age estimation in living subjects is primarily achieved through assessment of a hand-wrist radiograph and comparison with a standard reference atlas. Recently, maturation of other regions of the skeleton has also been assessed in an attempt to refine the age estimates. The current study presents a method to predict bone age directly from the knee in a modern Irish sample. Ten maturity indicators (A-J) at the knee were examined from radiographs of 221 subjects (137 males; 84 females). Each indicator was assigned a maturity score. Scores for indicators A-G, H-J and A-J, respectively, were totalled to provide a cumulative maturity score for change in morphology of the epiphyses (AG), epiphyseal union (HJ) and the combination of both (AJ). Linear regression equations to predict age from the maturity scores (AG, HJ, AJ) were constructed for males and females. For males, equation-AJ demonstrated the greatest predictive capability (R(2)=0.775) while for females equation-HJ had the strongest capacity for prediction (R(2)=0.815). When equation-AJ for males and equation-HJ for females were applied to the current sample, the predicted age of 90% of subjects was within ±1.5 years of actual age for male subjects and within +2.0 to -1.9 years of actual age for female subjects. The regression formulae and associated charts represent the most contemporary method of age prediction currently available for an Irish population, and provide a further technique which can contribute to a multifactorial approach to age estimation in non-adults.

  16. Adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xue, Yusheng; Yu, Chen; Li, Kang

    2016-01-01

    A risk assessment based adaptive ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) method is proposed in this paper. The method first extracts features from the historical data, and split every wind power time series (WPTS) into several subsets defined by their stationary patterns. A WPTS that does...... not match with any of the stationary patterns is then included into a subset of non-stationary patterns. Every WPTS subset is then related to a USTWPP model which is specially selected and optimized offline based on the proposed risk assessment index. For on-line applications, the pattern of the last short...... WPTS is first recognized, and the relevant prediction model is applied for USTWPP. Experimental results confirm the efficacy of the proposed method....

  17. Predictive effectiveness of the police risk assessment in intimate partner violence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan José López-Ossorio

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available To prevent gender violence it was developed the protocol called Police Risk Assessment (VPR for use by professionals of the State Security Forces. This protocol is the core of VioGen System of the Spanish Interior Ministry and which applies to regulation in all reported gender violence situations. To assess the predictive effectiveness of the VPR, a prospective longitudinal study was performed followed for 3 and 6 months of 407 women who reported being victims of violence from their partner or former partner. The results obtained by logistic regression analysis provide an AUC = 0.71 for time intervals at risk for three months (P less than .003, with an odds ratio of 6.58 (95% CI: 1.899-22.835. VPR sensitivity was 85% and specificity was 53.7%. The results indicate that the VPR shows good predictive ability and suitable psychometric characteristics for the task for which it was designed.

  18. Assessment of predictive dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Jankowska

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment is problematic, mainly as a result of the lack of measurement data on occupational exposure to chemicals. Due to common prevalence of occupational skin exposure and its health consequences it is necessary to look for efficient solutions allowing for reliable exposure assessment. The aim of the study is to present predictive models used to assess non-measured dermal exposure, as well as to acquaint Polish users with the principles of the selected model functioning. This paper presents examples of models to assist the employer in the the assessment of occupational exposure associated with the skin contact with chemicals, developed in European Union (EU countries, as well as in countries outside the EU. Based on the literature data dermal exposure models EASE (Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure, COSHH Essentials (Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations, DREAM (Dermal Exposure Assessment Method, Stoffenmanager , ECETOC TRA (European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment, MEASE (Metal’s EASE, PHED (Pesticide Handlers Exposure Database, DERM (Dermal Exposure Ranking Method and RISKOFDERM (Risk Assessment of Occupational Dermal Exposure to Chemicals were briefly described. Moreover the characteristics of RISKOFDERM, guidelines for its use, information on input and output data were further detailed. Problem of full work shift dermal exposure assessment is described. An example of exposure assessment using RISKOFDERM and effectiveness evaluation to date were also presented. When no measurements are available, RISKOFDERM allows dermal exposure assessment and thus can improve the risk assessment quality and effectiveness of dermal risk management. Med Pr 2017;68(4:557–569

  19. [Assessment of predictive dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowska, Agnieszka; Czerczak, Sławomir; Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata

    2017-06-27

    Assessment of dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment is problematic, mainly as a result of the lack of measurement data on occupational exposure to chemicals. Due to common prevalence of occupational skin exposure and its health consequences it is necessary to look for efficient solutions allowing for reliable exposure assessment. The aim of the study is to present predictive models used to assess non-measured dermal exposure, as well as to acquaint Polish users with the principles of the selected model functioning. This paper presents examples of models to assist the employer in the the assessment of occupational exposure associated with the skin contact with chemicals, developed in European Union (EU) countries, as well as in countries outside the EU. Based on the literature data dermal exposure models EASE (Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure), COSHH Essentials (Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations), DREAM (Dermal Exposure Assessment Method), Stoffenmanager , ECETOC TRA (European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment), MEASE (Metal's EASE), PHED (Pesticide Handlers Exposure Database), DERM (Dermal Exposure Ranking Method) and RISKOFDERM (Risk Assessment of Occupational Dermal Exposure to Chemicals) were briefly described. Moreover the characteristics of RISKOFDERM, guidelines for its use, information on input and output data were further detailed. Problem of full work shift dermal exposure assessment is described. An example of exposure assessment using RISKOFDERM and effectiveness evaluation to date were also presented. When no measurements are available, RISKOFDERM allows dermal exposure assessment and thus can improve the risk assessment quality and effectiveness of dermal risk management. Med Pr 2017;68(4):557-569. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

  20. Quality Assessment of Predicted Protein Models Using Energies Calculated by the Fragment Molecular Orbital Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoncini, David; Nakata, Hiroya; Ogata, Koji; Nakamura, Shinichiro; Zhang, Kam Yj

    2015-02-01

    Protein structure prediction directly from sequences is a very challenging problem in computational biology. One of the most successful approaches employs stochastic conformational sampling to search an empirically derived energy function landscape for the global energy minimum state. Due to the errors in the empirically derived energy function, the lowest energy conformation may not be the best model. We have evaluated the use of energy calculated by the fragment molecular orbital method (FMO energy) to assess the quality of predicted models and its ability to identify the best model among an ensemble of predicted models. The fragment molecular orbital method implemented in GAMESS was used to calculate the FMO energy of predicted models. When tested on eight protein targets, we found that the model ranking based on FMO energies is better than that based on empirically derived energies when there is sufficient diversity among these models. This model diversity can be estimated prior to the FMO energy calculations. Our result demonstrates that the FMO energy calculated by the fragment molecular orbital method is a practical and promising measure for the assessment of protein model quality and the selection of the best protein model among many generated. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Assessment of Predictive Response Factors to Intragastric Balloon Therapy for the Treatment of Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeira, Eduardo; Madeira, Miguel; Guedes, Erika Paniago; Mafort, Thiago Thomaz; Neto, Leonardo Vieira; de Oliveira Moreira, Rodrigo; de Pinho, Paulo Roberto Alves; Lopes, Agnaldo José; Farias, Maria Lucia Fleiuss

    2016-03-01

    Obesity is a worldwide epidemic that is difficult to control with non-invasive treatments, which usually present poor results. In this context, the intragastric balloon (IGB) is an important tool that presents a mean body weight loss (BWL) estimated at approximately 12%, although individual responses are highly variable. This study assesses whether there are factors that can predict responses to IGB therapy either before or early after placement of the device. A total of 50 obese patients underwent insertion of IGB placed endoscopically, and patients were monitored for 6 months. The evaluated predictive factors involved general characteristics and psychological, social, and dyspeptic aspects, and the preliminary results obtained in the first month after balloon placement. The mean weight loss was 11.5%, and 48% of the participants presented BWL >10%. Among the factors analyzed before IGB placement, only advanced age (P = .04) and higher scores obtained in the social relationships domain of a shorter version of the World Health Organization's Quality of Life questionnaire (P = .02) were significant. Analysis of the factors evaluated after IGB placement revealed that the BWL amounts observed in week 2 (P = .001) and week 4 (P < .001) and the intensity of dyspeptic symptoms in week 2 (P < .001) were positive predictive factors. The assessment of predictive factors may help to manage patients with IGB.

  2. Geriatric Assessment Can Predict Outcomes of Endoscopic Surgery for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia in Elderly Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichon, Thomas; Lebdai, Souhil; Launay, Cyrille Patrice; Collet, Nadine; Chautard, Denis; Cerruti, Arnaud; Hoarau, Nicolas; Brassart, Eléna; Bigot, Pierre; Beauchet, Olivier; Azzouzi, Abdel-Rahmène; Culty, Thibaut

    2017-11-01

    Ojectives: Surgical management of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in elderly patients is associated with higher morbidity and mortality rate. This raises the question of benefice and risk balance. We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate the results of endoscopic surgery for BPH in elderly patients, according to geriatric assessment. We included prospectively 60 patients older than 75 years, with an indwelling catheter for acute or chronic retention, who were candidates to endoscopic surgery for BPH. Patients underwent the brief geriatric assessment (BGA) and the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) to classify them into three groups: "vigorous," "vulnerable," and "sick." Success was defined by the bladder catheter withdrawal after surgery. After geriatric assessment, 33 patients were classified in the "vigorous" group (55%), 25 in the "vulnerable" group (42%), and 2 in the "sick" group (3%). The success rate immediately after surgery was 85% and 41% in the "vigorous patient" group and the "vulnerable and sick" patient group, respectively (p Geriatric assessment can predict the outcome of endoscopic surgery for BPH for patients in retention older than 75 years. "Vulnerable and sick" patients had a higher risk to keep their indwelling catheter after the surgery compared with "vigorous" patients. The complication rate is also higher. The BGA can although predict a poor result of surgery when its score is equal or above 3/6.

  3. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  4. Assessing the translatability of drug projects: what needs to be scored to predict success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehling, Martin

    2009-07-01

    Drug development projects have high attrition rates, often because efficacy and safety issues have not been foreseen. More effective prediction of 'translational success' could therefore have a key role in addressing the widely acknowledged problems with weak drug development pipelines. Here, I discuss how a scoring system to systematically assess key determinants of translational success, such as biomarkers and animal and human data, could help identify deficiencies and potential improvements, and increase the reliability of portfolio risk estimates.

  5. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP) - round x

    KAUST Repository

    Moult, John

    2013-12-17

    This article is an introduction to the special issue of the journal PROTEINS, dedicated to the tenth Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to assess the state of the art in protein structure modeling. The article describes the conduct of the experiment, the categories of prediction included, and outlines the evaluation and assessment procedures. The 10 CASP experiments span almost 20 years of progress in the field of protein structure modeling, and there have been enormous advances in methods and model accuracy in that period. Notable in this round is the first sustained improvement of models with refinement methods, using molecular dynamics. For the first time, we tested the ability of modeling methods to make use of sparse experimental three-dimensional contact information, such as may be obtained from new experimental techniques, with encouraging results. On the other hand, new contact prediction methods, though holding considerable promise, have yet to make an impact in CASP testing. The nature of CASP targets has been changing in recent CASPs, reflecting shifts in experimental structural biology, with more irregular structures, more multi-domain and multi-subunit structures, and less standard versions of known folds. When allowance is made for these factors, we continue to see steady progress in the overall accuracy of models, particularly resulting from improvement of non-template regions.

  6. Preservice teachers' predictions, perceptions, and actual assessment of students with special needs in secondary general music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanweelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' level of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders, and students with acute cognitive delays. The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers perceptions of all students' level of mastery increased from predictions scores overall. Additionally, pre-service teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' level of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Finally, there was no correlation between how the preservice teachers thought students would perform, how they thought the students performed, and how the students actually performed based on assessment data.

  7. An Assessment of a Proposed Hybrid Neural Network for Daily Flow Prediction in Arid Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milad Jajarmizadeh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff simulation in hydrology using artificial intelligence presents the nonlinear relationships using neural networks. In this study, a hybrid network presented as a feedforward modular neural network (FF-MNN has been developed to predict the daily rainfall-runoff of the Roodan watershed at the southern part of Iran. This FF-MNN has three layers—input, hidden, and output. The hidden layer has two types of neural expert or module. Hydrometeorological data of the catchment were collected for 21 years. Heuristic method was used to develop the MNN for exploring daily flow generalization. Two training algorithms, namely, backpropagation with momentum and Levenberg-Marquardt, were used. Sigmoid and linear transfer functions were employed to explore the network’s optimum behavior. Cross-validation and predictive uncertainty assessments were carried out to protect overtiring and overparameterization, respectively. Results showed that the FF-MNN could satisfactorily predict stream flow during testing period. The Nash-Sutcliff coefficient, coefficient of determination, and root mean square error obtained using MNN during training and test periods were 0.85, 0.85, and 39.4 and 0.57, 0.58, and 32.2, respectively. The predictive uncertainties for both periods were 0.39 and 0.44, respectively. Generally, the study showed that the FF-MNN can give promising prediction for rainfall-runoff relations.

  8. Assessment of PANC3 score in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avreen Singh Shah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is inflammatory process of the pancreas associated with local and systemic complications. At present, there are lots of scores (such as Ransons, APACHE II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis that help us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming or require complex calculation and are costly. Material and Methods: PANC3 Scoring System is one of the better systems because the three criteria used (hematocrit, body mass index, and pleural effusion are simple, easy to assess, readily available, and economic. In this prospective study, 100 cases were evaluated to see the prospects of PANC3 scoring in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis as decided by modified Marshals score. Results: The results showed that PANC3 score had a 96.43% specificity, 75% sensitivity, 80% positive predictive value, and 95.29% negative predictive value. Conclusion: Hence, the PANC3 score is a cost-effective, promising score that helps in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis leading to prompt treatment and early referral to higher center.

  9. Predictive validity of the comprehensive basic science examination mean score for assessment of medical students' performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firouz Behboudi

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Background Medical education curriculum improvements can be achieved bye valuating students performance. Medical students have to pass two undergraduate comprehensive examinations, basic science and preinternship, in Iran. Purpose To measure validity of the students' mean score in comprehensive basic science exam (CBSE for predicting their performance in later curriculum phases. Methods This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 95 (38 women and 55 men Guilan medical university students. Their admission to the university was 81% by regional quota and 12% by shaheed and other organizations' share. They first enrolled in 1994 and were able to pass CBS£ at first try. Data on gender, regional quota, and average grades of CBS£, PC, and CPIE were collected by a questionnaire. The calculations were done by SPSS package. Results The correlation coefficient between CBS£ and CPIE mean scores (0.65 was higher than correlation coefficient between CBS£ and PC mean scores (0.49. The predictive validity of CBS£ average grade was significant for students' performance in CPIE; however, the predictive validity of CBSE mean scores for students I pe1jormance in PC was lower. Conclusion he students' mean score in CBSE can be a good denominator for their further admission. We recommend further research to assess the predictive validity for each one of the basic courses. Keywords predictive validity, comprehensive basic exam

  10. Using the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial and Borderline Features Scales to Predict Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Morey, Leslie C; Edens, John F

    2016-11-01

    A substantial amount of research has examined the developmental trajectory of antisocial behavior and, in particular, the relationship between antisocial behavior and maladaptive personality traits. However, research typically has not controlled for previous behavior (e.g., past violence) when examining the utility of personality measures, such as self-report scales of antisocial and borderline traits, in predicting future behavior (e.g., subsequent violence). Examination of the potential interactive effects of measures of both antisocial and borderline traits also is relatively rare in longitudinal research predicting adverse outcomes. The current study utilizes a large sample of youthful offenders ( N = 1,354) from the Pathways to Desistance project to examine the separate effects of the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial Features (ANT) and Borderline Features (BOR) scales in predicting future offending behavior as well as trends in other negative outcomes (e.g., substance abuse, violence, employment difficulties) over a 1-year follow-up period. In addition, an ANT × BOR interaction term was created to explore the predictive effects of secondary psychopathy. ANT and BOR both explained unique variance in the prediction of various negative outcomes even after controlling for past indicators of those same behaviors during the preceding year.

  11. Assessing the model transferability for prediction of transcription factor binding sites based on chromatin accessibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sheng; Zibetti, Cristina; Wan, Jun; Wang, Guohua; Blackshaw, Seth; Qian, Jiang

    2017-07-27

    Computational prediction of transcription factor (TF) binding sites in different cell types is challenging. Recent technology development allows us to determine the genome-wide chromatin accessibility in various cellular and developmental contexts. The chromatin accessibility profiles provide useful information in prediction of TF binding events in various physiological conditions. Furthermore, ChIP-Seq analysis was used to determine genome-wide binding sites for a range of different TFs in multiple cell types. Integration of these two types of genomic information can improve the prediction of TF binding events. We assessed to what extent a model built upon on other TFs and/or other cell types could be used to predict the binding sites of TFs of interest. A random forest model was built using a set of cell type-independent features such as specific sequences recognized by the TFs and evolutionary conservation, as well as cell type-specific features derived from chromatin accessibility data. Our analysis suggested that the models learned from other TFs and/or cell lines performed almost as well as the model learned from the target TF in the cell type of interest. Interestingly, models based on multiple TFs performed better than single-TF models. Finally, we proposed a universal model, BPAC, which was generated using ChIP-Seq data from multiple TFs in various cell types. Integrating chromatin accessibility information with sequence information improves prediction of TF binding.The prediction of TF binding is transferable across TFs and/or cell lines suggesting there are a set of universal "rules". A computational tool was developed to predict TF binding sites based on the universal "rules".

  12. Repeated assessments of symptom severity improve predictions for risk of death among patients with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutradhar, Rinku; Atzema, Clare; Seow, Hsien; Earle, Craig; Porter, Joan; Barbera, Lisa

    2014-12-01

    Although prior studies show the importance of self-reported symptom scores as predictors of cancer survival, most are based on scores recorded at a single point in time. To show that information on repeated assessments of symptom severity improves predictions for risk of death and to use updated symptom information for determining whether worsening of symptom scores is associated with a higher hazard of death. This was a province-based longitudinal study of adult outpatients who had a cancer diagnosis and had assessments of symptom severity. We implemented a time-to-death Cox model with a time-varying covariate for each symptom to account for changing symptom scores over time. This model was compared with that using only a time-fixed (baseline) covariate for each symptom. The regression coefficients of each model were derived based on a randomly selected 60% of patients, and then, the predictive performance of each model was assessed via concordance probabilities when applied to the remaining 40% of patients. This study had 66,112 patients diagnosed with cancer and more than 310,000 assessments of symptoms. The use of repeated assessments of symptom scores improved predictions for risk of death compared with using only baseline symptom scores. Increased pain and fatigue and reduced appetite were the strongest predictors for death. If available, researchers should consider including changing information on symptom scores, as opposed to only baseline information on symptom scores, when examining hazard of death among patients with cancer. Worsening of pain, fatigue, and appetite may be a flag for impending death. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Concurrent and Predictive Validity of Composite Methods to Assess Nutritional Status in Older Adults on Hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santin, Fernanda Galvão de Oliveira; Bigogno, Fernanda Guedes; Dias Rodrigues, Juliana Cordeiro; Cuppari, Lilian; Avesani, Carla Maria

    2016-01-01

    To assess the performance of subjective global assessment (SGA), malnutrition inflammation score (MIS), and mini nutritional assessment short-form (MNA-SF) in older adults on hemodialysis (HD) by evaluating their concurrent and predictive validity. An observational and prospective study including older adults on HD. Six dialysis units. We assessed 137 HD patients aged ≥60 years (71.7% male, 70.2 ± 7.2 years). The nutritional status was assessed by 7-point SGA, MIS and MNA-SF, and by objective methods. Patients were followed up for 14.5 (8; 26.3) months (median and interquartile) to assess survival. Protein energy wasting (PEW) was present in 63% of the patients when assessed by SGA, in 77% by MIS, and in 26% by MNA-SF. Most objective parameters of patients classified with PEW were lower (P nutritional status, but SGA and MIS were likely to perform better than MNA-SF. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Development of a video-based education and process change intervention to improve advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Nicholas; Johnson, Claire E; Saul, Peter; Waldron, Heidi; Chong, Jeffrey C; Hill, Anne-Marie; Hayes, Barbara

    2016-10-06

    Advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) decision-making and escalation of care discussions are variable in routine clinical practice. We aimed to explore physician barriers to advance CPR decision-making in an inpatient hospital setting and develop a pragmatic intervention to support clinicians to undertake and document routine advance care planning discussions. Two focus groups, which involved eight consultants and ten junior doctors, were conducted following a review of the current literature. A subsequent iterative consensus process developed two intervention elements: (i) an updated 'Goals of Patient Care' (GOPC) form and process; (ii) an education video and resources for teaching advance CPR decision-making and communication. A multidisciplinary group of health professionals and policy-makers with experience in systems development, education and research provided critical feedback. Three key themes emerged from the focus groups and the literature, which identified a structure for the intervention: (i) knowing what to say; (ii) knowing how to say it; (iii) wanting to say it. The themes informed the development of a video to provide education about advance CPR decision-making framework, improving communication and contextualising relevant clinical issues. Critical feedback assisted in refining the video and further guided development and evolution of a medical GOPC approach to discussing and recording medical treatment and advance care plans. Through an iterative process of consultation and review, video-based education and an expanded GOPC form and approach were developed to address physician and systemic barriers to advance CPR decision-making and documentation. Implementation and evaluation across hospital settings is required to examine utility and determine effect on quality of care.

  15. Selected static foot assessments do not predict medial longitudinal arch motion during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langley, Ben; Cramp, Mary; Morrison, Stewart C

    2015-01-01

    Static assessments of the foot are commonly advocated within the running community to classify the foot with a view to recommending the appropriate type of running shoe. The aim of this work was to determine whether selected static foot assessment could predict medial longitudinal arch (MLA) motion during running. Fifteen physically active males (27 ± 5 years, 1.77 ± 0.04 m, 80 ± 10 kg) participated in the study. Foot Posture Index (FPI-6), MLA angle and rearfoot angle were measured in a relaxed standing position. MLA motion was calculated using the position of retro-reflective markers tracked by a VICON motion analysis system, while participants ran barefoot on a treadmill at a self-selected pace (2.8 ± 0.5 m.s(-1)). Bivariate linear regression was used to determine whether the static measures predicted MLA deformation and MLA angles at initial contact, midsupport and toe off. All three foot classification measures were significant predictors of MLA angle at initial contact, midsupport and toe off (p static foot classification measures were significant predictors of MLA deformation during the stance phase of running. Selected static foot measures did not predict dynamic MLA deformation during running. Given that MLA deformation has theoretically been linked to running injuries, the clinical relevance of predicting MLA angle at discrete time points during the stance phase of running is questioned. These findings also question the validity of the selected static foot classification measures when looking to characterise the foot during running. This indicates that alternative means of assessing the foot to inform footwear selection are required.

  16. Assessment of the genomic prediction accuracy for feed efficiency traits in meat-type chickens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianfei; Luo, Chenglong; Wang, Jie; Ma, Jie; Shu, Dingming; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Su, Guosheng; Qu, Hao

    2017-01-01

    Feed represents the major cost of chicken production. Selection for improving feed utilization is a feasible way to reduce feed cost and greenhouse gas emissions. The objectives of this study were to investigate the efficiency of genomic prediction for feed conversion ratio (FCR), residual feed intake (RFI), average daily gain (ADG) and average daily feed intake (ADFI) and to assess the impact of selection for feed efficiency traits FCR and RFI on eviscerating percentage (EP), breast muscle percentage (BMP) and leg muscle percentage (LMP) in meat-type chickens. Genomic prediction was assessed using a 4-fold cross-validation for two validation scenarios. The first scenario was a random family sampling validation (CVF), and the second scenario was a random individual sampling validation (CVR). Variance components were estimated based on the genomic relationship built with single nucleotide polymorphism markers. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model. The accuracies of GEBV were evaluated in two ways: the correlation between GEBV and corrected phenotypic value divided by the square root of heritability, i.e., the correlation-based accuracy, and model-based theoretical accuracy. Breeding values were also predicted using a conventional pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction model in order to compare accuracies of genomic and conventional predictions. The heritability estimates of FCR and RFI were 0.29 and 0.50, respectively. The heritability estimates of ADG, ADFI, EP, BMP and LMP ranged from 0.34 to 0.53. In the CVF scenario, the correlation-based accuracy and the theoretical accuracy of genomic prediction for FCR were slightly higher than those for RFI. The correlation-based accuracies for FCR, RFI, ADG and ADFI were 0.360, 0.284, 0.574 and 0.520, respectively, and the model-based theoretical accuracies were 0.420, 0.414, 0.401 and 0.382, respectively. In the CVR scenario, the correlation

  17. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  18. The Comparative Instructional Effectiveness of Print-Based and Video-Based Instructional Materials for Teaching Practical Skills at a Distance

    OpenAIRE

    Francis Donkor

    2010-01-01

    Print-based instructional materials have been more popular than any other medium for teaching practical skills during the delivery of technical and vocational education and training via distance learning. However, the approach has its shortcomings and in recent times alternatives have been sought. The comparative instructional effectiveness of one such alternative is the focus of this paper. The study sought to examine the instructional effectiveness of video-based instructional materials vis...

  19. The effects of video-based and activity-based instruction on high school students' knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions related to seat belt use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tudor Griffith, III

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of video-based science instruction and accompanying activity-based instruction on the knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions of high school students' use of seat belts. Secondarily, the purpose was to determine order effects and interactions between the two treatments used in the study: video-based instruction and hands-on activity-based instruction. The study used Ajzen and Fishbein's theory of reasoned action to investigate the factors influencing high school students' behavioral intentions regarding seat belt use. This study used a pretest-posttest-posttest treatment design. Data were collected on 194 students in high school introductory biology and chemistry classes in Gainesville, Florida. Ten intact high school science classes (eight treatment and two control) took pretests and posttests measuring physics knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions toward seat belt use prior to and after participating in the two treatments. The treatment group students participated in at least 500 minutes of instructional time divided among five lessons over 10 instructional days. All participants were pretested on physics knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions toward seat belt use prior to two treatments. Treatment A was defined as participating in one 50-minute video-based instructional lesson. Treatment B was defined as participating in four hands-on science activities regarding crash-related physics concepts. Cronbach's coefficient alpha was used for analysis of the researcher-designed instruments, and ANOVA was used to analyze the data. The results of the analyses (p behavioral intentions regarding seat belts use. The treatment sequence did not result in significantly greater (p behavioral intentions regarding seat belt use. The results of this study indicate that video-based instruction and activity-based instruction can positively change knowledge and behavioral intentions related to seat belt

  20. A Large-Scale Assessment of Nucleic Acids Binding Site Prediction Programs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhichao Miao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Computational prediction of nucleic acid binding sites in proteins are necessary to disentangle functional mechanisms in most biological processes and to explore the binding mechanisms. Several strategies have been proposed, but the state-of-the-art approaches display a great diversity in i the definition of nucleic acid binding sites; ii the training and test datasets; iii the algorithmic methods for the prediction strategies; iv the performance measures and v the distribution and availability of the prediction programs. Here we report a large-scale assessment of 19 web servers and 3 stand-alone programs on 41 datasets including more than 5000 proteins derived from 3D structures of protein-nucleic acid complexes. Well-defined binary assessment criteria (specificity, sensitivity, precision, accuracy… are applied. We found that i the tools have been greatly improved over the years; ii some of the approaches suffer from theoretical defects and there is still room for sorting out the essential mechanisms of binding; iii RNA binding and DNA binding appear to follow similar driving forces and iv dataset bias may exist in some methods.

  1. Long Term Precipitation Patterns Assessment and Prediction over the Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkadiri, R.; Sultan, M.; Momm, H.; Elbayoumi, T.; Milewski, A.; Blair, Z.; Briana, V.

    2016-12-01

    We developed and applied an integrated approach to construct predictive tools with lead times of 1 to 24 months to forecast monthly precipitation amounts over the Mediterranean Basin. The study was applied over eight climatically different and homogeneous pilot sites. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and inter-correlate temporal remote sensing-based precipitation products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP], Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM [IMERG]) throughout the investigation period (1980 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); and (3) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, genetic algorithms) to extract relationships between the observed precipitation and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and use predictive tools to forecast monthly precipitation. Preliminary results indicate that by using the period from January 2006 until January 2016 for model testing and the period from January 1980 until December 2005 for model training, precipitation can be successfully predicted with lead times from 1 to 24 months over the test sites with an accuracy ranging between 52% and 98%. If our final efforts are successful, our findings could lead the way to the development and implementation of long-term water management scenarios for the Mediterranean region.

  2. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Assessing biological maturity: chronological age and the pubertal development scale predict free testosterone in adolescent males.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibberd, Elizabeth E; Hackney, Anthony C; Lane, Amy R; Myers, Joseph B

    2015-03-01

    Pubertal development status has implications for development of physical characteristics, performance, and injury risk in school-aged athletes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of non-invasive measures of biological maturity to predict salivary free testosterone. A total of 61 physically active males (ages 6-16) participated in this study. Participants had their anthropometrics measured, completed the Pubertal Development Scale (PDS), and reported their birthdays and the heights of their biological parents. Exact chronological age and percent of predicted height were calculated. Resting salivary samples were collected and assessed for free testosterone levels using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay procedures. Variables were entered into a stepwise linear regression to predict free testosterone. The regression model was statistically significant (R²=0.716, F₂,₆₁=74.2, pfree testosterone. Chronological age and PDS adequately predict salivary free testosterone levels in school-aged males and may be an appropriate tool to evaluate physical maturity in school-aged males quickly, cheaply, and accurately.

  4. Preoperative urodynamic assessment in patients with spinal cord lesions undergoing sphincterotomy: is success predictable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannek, Juergen; Hilfiker, Roger; Goecking, Konrad; Bersch, Ulf

    2009-01-01

    Sphincterotomy is a well-established therapeutic option in male patients with neurogenic bladder dysfunction and detrusor-sphincter-dyssynergia due to spinal cord lesions. Indication and prediction of treatment outcome, however, are mainly based on clinical parameters. We analyzed the clinical usefulness of preoperative urodynamic evaluation for the prediction of success in patients undergoing external sphincterotomy. In a retrospective study, residual urine, retrograde perfusion pressure (RESP) and detrusor leak point pressure (DLPP) in 62 male patients with spinal cord injury were assessed before sphincterotomy. Data were compared to surgical success evaluated by postoperative DLPP and residual urine. Sphincterotomy was successful in 85.4% of our patients. In multivariate analysis, both preoperative DLPP and RESP were superior to measurement of residual urine concerning prediction of surgical success. However, these differences were not statistically significant. To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate preoperative predictors for surgical success in patients undergoing sphincterotomy. Although urodynamic evaluation is strongly advised prior to surgery in patients with spinal cord lesions, it improves prediction of success only marginally. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Predictive validity of measurements of clinical competence using the team objective structured bedside assessment (TOSBA): assessing the clinical competence of final year medical students.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Meagher, Frances M

    2009-11-01

    The importance of valid and reliable assessment of student competence and performance is gaining increased recognition. Provision of valid patient-based formative assessment is an increasing challenge for clinical teachers in a busy hospital setting. A formative assessment tool that reliably predicts performance in the summative setting would be of value to both students and teachers.

  6. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steyerberg, Ewout W; Vickers, Andrew J; Cook, Nancy R

    2010-01-01

    The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver...... operating characteristic [ROC] curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration.Several new measures have recently been proposed that can be seen as refinements of discrimination measures, including variants of the c statistic for survival, reclassification tables, net reclassification improvement...... (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Moreover, decision-analytic measures have been proposed, including decision curves to plot the net benefit achieved by making decisions based on model predictions.We aimed to define the role of these relatively novel approaches in the evaluation...

  7. Developing methods to assess and predict the population level effects of environmental contaminants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emlen, J.M.; Springman, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies--assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants--moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

  8. Developing methods to assess and predict the population and community level effects of environmental contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emlen, John M.; Springman, Kathrine R.

    2007-01-01

    The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies—assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants—moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

  9. DMA Clinical Pilates Directional-Bias Assessment: Reliability and Predictive Validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulloch, Evelyn; Phillips, Craig; Sole, Gisela; Carman, Allan; Abbott, J Haxby

    2012-08-01

    Randomized, repeated-measures crossover design. To determine the interrater reliability of directional-bias assessment and to investigate its validity for predicting immediate changes in dynamic postural stability and muscle performance following directionally biased exercises. Directional bias in dynamic postural stability deficits may be associated with outcome following intervention. Two researchers independently assessed 33 participants, each with a history of more than 1 unilateral lower-limb injury, for directional bias. Interrater reliability was evaluated with the kappa coefficient and a prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted kappa coefficient. Participants were randomly allocated to perform matched-bias (MB) or unmatched-bias (UB) exercises first, in 2 crossover groups. Two outcome measures, time to stabilization and rebound hopping, were assessed before and following each exercise intervention, using a force plate. Crossover trial data were analyzed by t tests for period, interaction, and treatment effects, and repeated-measures analyses of variance were used to investigate differences between baseline, MB, and UB. Interrater reliability of directional-bias assessment was substantial (κ = 0.75; prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted κ = 0.76). Following MB exercises, medial/lateral time to stabilization and time on the ground during rebound hopping were significantly shorter (P = .01 and P = .05, respectively) compared with UB exercises. Compared with baseline, pairwise change in anterior/posterior time to stabilization (P = .008) improved following MB, whereas time in the air decreased following UB (P = .036). Directional-bias assessment demonstrates substantial reliability, and outcomes suggest validity for predicting immediate improvements following matched directionally biased exercises.

  10. Predicting return to work after subarachnoid hemorrhage using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallmark, Svante; Ronne-Engström, Elisabeth; Lundström, Erik

    2016-02-01

    Returning to work is a major issue for patients having had an aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). It is important, at an early stage, to identify the patients that are unlikely to return to work. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) at 6 months after ictus on return to work at 12 months. In this prospective study were 96 patients with SAH included in the acute phase. Cognitive functions were assessed at 6 months using the MoCA and return to work at 12 months. The predictive value of MoCA on return to work was analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as well as logistic regression. Of those that had work before the SAH, 52 % were working at 12 months after the ictus. These patients had scored significantly better on MoCA at 6 months (p = 0.01). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75. By using a cut-off on MoCA of work. Adding data from the acute phase to the MoCA in a logistic regression model increased the percentage of patients correctly classified as returned/not returned to work by 2 %. Returning to work is a major issue for SAH patients. It is important to identify factors that may interfere with a patient's ability to return to work, and address these issues appropriately. In our study, estimating cognitive functions at 6 months after SAH using the MoCA alone allowed us to predict return to work correctly in 68 % of the cases. We feel that this provides useful information in planning rehabilitation, but that other post-SAH symptoms have to be considered as well.

  11. Using manifold embedding for assessing and predicting protein interactions from high-throughput experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Zhu-Hong; Lei, Ying-Ke; Gui, Jie; Huang, De-Shuang; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2010-11-01

    High-throughput protein interaction data, with ever-increasing volume, are becoming the foundation of many biological discoveries, and thus high-quality protein-protein interaction (PPI) maps are critical for a deeper understanding of cellular processes. However, the unreliability and paucity of current available PPI data are key obstacles to the subsequent quantitative studies. It is therefore highly desirable to develop an approach to deal with these issues from the computational perspective. Most previous works for assessing and predicting protein interactions either need supporting evidences from multiple information resources or are severely impacted by the sparseness of PPI networks. We developed a robust manifold embedding technique for assessing the reliability of interactions and predicting new interactions, which purely utilizes the topological information of PPI networks and can work on a sparse input protein interactome without requiring additional information types. After transforming a given PPI network into a low-dimensional metric space using manifold embedding based on isometric feature mapping (ISOMAP), the problem of assessing and predicting protein interactions is recasted into the form of measuring similarity between points of its metric space. Then a reliability index, a likelihood indicating the interaction of two proteins, is assigned to each protein pair in the PPI networks based on the similarity between the points in the embedded space. Validation of the proposed method is performed with extensive experiments on densely connected and sparse PPI network of yeast, respectively. Results demonstrate that the interactions ranked top by our method have high-functional homogeneity and localization coherence, especially our method is very efficient for large sparse PPI network with which the traditional algorithms fail. Therefore, the proposed algorithm is a much more promising method to detect both false positive and false negative interactions

  12. Assessment of Euroscore and SAPS III as hospital mortality predicted in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos-Pañero, B; Sánchez-Casado, M; Castaño-Moreira, B; Paredes-Astillero, I; López-Almodóvar, L F; Bustos-Molina, F

    2017-05-01

    To perform an external validation of Euroscore I, Euroscore II and SAPS III. Retrospective cohort study over three years on all adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery. We reviewed the clinical data, following the patient until outcome or discharge from hospital (dead, alive). We computed the predicted mortality by Euroscore I (EI), II (EII) and SAPS III. The model validation was assessed by discrimination: area under curve ROC; and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). 866 patients were included. 62.5% of them male, with a median age of 69 years, 6.1% died during hospitalization. Predicted mortality: E I 7.94%, E II 3.54, SAPS III 12.1%. Area under curve (95% IC): E I 0.862 (0.812-0.912); E II 0.861 (0.806-0.915); SAPS III 0.692 (0.601-0.784). Hosmer-Lemeshow test: E I 14.0046 (P=.08164); E II 33.67 (P=.00004660); SAPS III 11.57 (P=.171). EII had good discrimination, but the calibration was not good with predicted mortality lower than the real mortality. E I showed the best discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to overestimate the mortality. SAPS III showed poor discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to greatly overestimate the predicted mortality. We saw no improvement in the predictive performance of EII over I and we reject the use of SAPS III in this kind of patient. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  13. Increased self-reported and objectively assessed physical activity predict sleep quality among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Christin; Brand, Serge; Feldmeth, Anne Karina; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Pühse, Uwe; Gerber, Markus

    2013-08-15

    Both scientists and the general public assume that physical activity (PA) is an effective, non-pharmacological approach to improvement in sleep quality. However, objective and reliable data on this relationship are scarce, particularly for adolescents. Therefore, the aims of the present study were to test the relationship by assessing both PA and sleep subjectively and objectively. A total of 56 adolescent vocational school students (Mean age=17.98, SD=1.36; 28 males, 28 females) participated in the study. Sleep and PA were subjectively assessed via questionnaires. Accelerometers objectively assessed PA, while sleep-EEG devices objectively assessed sleep. The data supported our prediction that adolescents with high PA levels would have longer TST, fewer wakening at night (WASO), fewer symptoms of insomnia, and higher sleep quality. However, gender influenced this pattern of results in that significant findings were only found between high self-reported PA levels and shorter perceived sleep onset latency (SOL). Though self-reported PA levels were a better predictor of good sleep than objectively assessed PA levels, gender was associated with sleep complaints; females reported more sleep complaints. Results indicate that among a non-clinical sample of adolescents increased PA is favorably associated with restoring sleep. Therefore, PA seems beneficial not only for physical and mental health, but also for sleep restoration. © 2013.

  14. Performance Assessment of the VSC Using Two Model Predictive Control Schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Al hasheem, Mohamed; Abdelhakim, Ahmed; Dragicevic, Tomislav

    2018-01-01

    and 2L-VSC efficiency. The results also demonstrate the performance of the system using carrier based pulse width modulation (CB-PWM). These findings have been validated for both linear and non-linear loads through experimental verification on 4 kW 2L-VSC prototype. It can be concluded that a comparable......Finite control set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) methods in different power electronics application are gaining high attention due to their simplicity and fast dynamics. This paper introduces an experimental assessment of the two-level three-phase voltage source converter (2L-VSC) using two...

  15. Predictive assessment on loss caused by dam break based on GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shengmei; Ning, Jing; Cao, Bo; Li, Bo

    2013-10-01

    The floods due to dam failure usually do great harm to human beings and social economy. The aim of this paper is to apply geographical information system (GIS) technology, and the loss estimation model to estimate the loss of the hypothetical dam break in Lushui reservoir basin. The general predictive loss evaluation scheme of dam-break flood is illustrated. The empirical formula method is used to determine the flood submerged region. The final loss assessment result is mapped out on GIS software. The result shows that the combination of GIS and loss estimation model can make the overall procedure for loss assessment efficient and effective, which could do favor to long-term basin flood control planning and disaster preparedness.

  16. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hanc, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-10-01

    The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality.At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed.A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality.The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group.

  17. Carbon dioxide heat transfer coefficients and pressure drops during flow boiling: Assessment of predictive methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mastrullo, R.; Mauro, A.W.; Rosato, A. [D.E.TE.C., Facolta di Ingegneria, Universita degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, p.le Tecchio 80, 80125 Napoli (Italy); Vanoli, G.P. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Universita degli Studi del Sannio, corso Garibaldi 107, Palazzo dell' Aquila Bosco Lucarelli, 82100 Benevento (Italy)

    2010-09-15

    Among the alternatives to the HCFCs and HFCs, carbon dioxide emerged as one of the most promising environmentally friendly refrigerants. In past years many works were carried out about CO{sub 2} flow boiling and very different two-phase flow characteristics from conventional fluids were found. In order to assess the best predictive methods for the evaluation of CO{sub 2} heat transfer coefficients and pressure gradients in macro-channels, in the current article a literature survey of works and a collection of the results of statistical comparisons available in literature are furnished. In addition the experimental data from University of Naples are used to run a deeper analysis. Both a statistical and a direct comparison against some of the most quoted predictive methods are carried out. Methods implemented both for low-medium pressure refrigerants and specifically developed for R744 are used in the comparison. Some general indications about the choice of the predictive methods dependently on the operating conditions are given. (author)

  18. Brief report on ecological momentary assessment: everyday states predict HIV prevention behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Paul F; McElwain, Catherine J; Bradley-Springer, Lucy A

    2016-01-04

    Prevention behaviors help persons living with HIV (PLWH) to avoid transmitting HIV, and psychological variables have been found to predict HIV prevention behaviors. These variables have typically been measured using retrospective questionnaires about average psychological states over a period of time, which are likely to be biased by selective recall and interpretation. Measuring the same variables as momentary states, in the day-to-day context where they actually occur, may reveal different relationships to behavior. 21 PLWH completed daily surveys about momentary states and prevention behaviors. Brief, validated measures were used to assess control beliefs, mood, stress, coping, social support, stigma, knowledge, and motivation. We used multilevel models to predict prevention behaviors from momentary states the previous day, while controlling for the effect of multiple observations from the same person over time. Participants reported a moderate overall level of HIV prevention behaviors during the 6-month study. Although lapses in prevention were infrequent, there was room for improvement. Control beliefs, mood, and motivation had significant prospective effects on HIV prevention behaviors, rs = 0.07-0.21. Stress and coping had effects approaching significance. Some momentary states predicted prevention behaviors, providing partial support for the motivational model. This finding supports past research showing effects of momentary states on behavior, and advances the science by testing multiple predictors. High within-sample diversity strengthened generalizability, but the overall sample size was small and the findings require replication. Future research should continue to examine the everyday experiences of PLWH as influences on their behavior.

  19. Longitudinal growth assessment for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in SGA-suspected fetuses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caradeux, Javier; Eixarch, Elisenda; Mazarico, Edurne; Basuki, Tri Rahmat; Gratacos, Eduard; Figueras, Francesc

    2017-08-07

    Fetal growth restriction (FGR) is associated with an increased risk of adverse perinatal outcome (APO). However, distinguishing this condition from smallness-for-gestational age remains elusive. A set of criteria has recently been proposed for such purpose, including the severity of smallness, Doppler parameters and growth velocity. To establish whether the use of growth velocity adds to Doppler evaluation in predicting APO among SGA-suspected fetuses. A prospective cohort of consecutive singleton pregnancies with late (diagnosis > 32.0 weeks) SGA (estimated fetal weight [EFW] SGA. Of them, 231 (48.9%) qualified as late FGR. Univariate analysis showed a significant trend towards higher frequency of EFW z-velocity in the lowest decile in pregnancies with APO (14.5% vs. 8.2%; p = 0.041). Nonetheless, the addition of z-velocity neither improved the association nor the prediction performance of standard criteria of FGR for the occurrence of APO. Longitudinal assessment of fetal growth by means of z-velocity did not have any independent predictive value for adverse perinatal outcome when used in combination with Doppler in SGA-suspected fetuses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. A Method to Assess Localized Impact of Better Floodplain Topography on Flood Risk Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy J.-P. Schumann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have highlighted the need for a higher accuracy global digital elevation model (DEM, mainly in river floodplains and deltas and along coastlines. In this paper, we present a method to infer the impact of a better DEM on applications and science using the Lower Zambezi basin as a use case. We propose an analysis based on a targeted observation algorithm to evaluate potential data acquisition subregions in terms of their impact on the prediction of flood risk over the entire study area. Consequently, it becomes trivial to rank these subregions in terms of their contribution to the overall accuracy of flood prediction. The improvement from better topography data may be expressed in terms of economic output and population affected, providing a multifaceted assessment of the value of acquiring better elevation data. Our results highlight the notion that having higher resolution measurements would improve our current large-scale flood inundation prediction capabilities in the Lower Zambezi by at least 30% and significantly reduce the number of people affected as well as the economic loss associated with high magnitude flooding. We believe this procedure to be simple enough to be applied to other regions where high quality topographic and hydrodynamic data are currently unavailable.

  1. Further Analysis of the Predictive Effects of a Free-Operant Competing Stimulus Assessment on Stereotypy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brogan, Kristen M; Rapp, John T; Sennott, Lisa A; Cook, Jennifer L; Swinkels, Erin

    2017-11-01

    We conducted five experiments to evaluate the predictive validity of a free-operant competing stimulus assessment (FOCSA). In Experiment 1, we showed that each participant's repetitive behavior persisted without social consequences. In Experiment 2, we used the FOCSA to identify high-preference, low-stereotypy (HP-LS) items for 11 participants and high-preference, high-stereotypy (HP-HS) items for nine participants. To validate the results of the FOCSAs (Experiment 3), we used a three-component multiple schedule to evaluate the immediate and subsequent effects of an HP-LS stimulus, an HP-HS stimulus, or both (in separate test sequences) on each participant's stereotypy. Results of Experiment 3 showed that the FOCSA correctly predicted the immediate effect of the HP-LS stimulus for 10 of 11 participants; however, the FOCSA predictions were less accurate for the HP-HS stimulus. Results of Experiment 4 showed that a differential reinforcement of other behavior procedure in which participants earned access to the HP-LS for omitting vocal stereotypy increased all five participants' latency to engaging in stereotypy; however, clinically significant omission durations were only achieved for one participant. Experiment 5 showed that differential reinforcement of alternative behavior in which participants earned access to the HP-LS stimulus contingent upon correct responses during discrete-trial training reduced targeted and nontargeted stereotypy and increased correct academic responding for all four participants. The potential utility of the FOCSA is discussed.

  2. PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 2: comparative assessment of prediction methods of human volume of distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Rhys Do; Jones, Hannah M; Rowland, Malcolm; Gibson, Christopher R; Yates, James W T; Chien, Jenny Y; Ring, Barbara J; Adkison, Kimberly K; Ku, M Sherry; He, Handan; Vuppugalla, Ragini; Marathe, Punit; Fischer, Volker; Dutta, Sandeep; Sinha, Vikash K; Björnsson, Thorir; Lavé, Thierry; Poulin, Patrick

    2011-10-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of various empirical, semimechanistic and mechanistic methodologies with and without protein binding corrections for the prediction of human volume of distribution at steady state (Vss ). PhRMA member companies contributed a set of blinded data from preclinical and clinical studies, and 18 drugs with intravenous clinical pharmacokinetics (PK) data were available for the analysis. In vivo and in vitro preclinical data were used to predict Vss by 24 different methods. Various statistical and outlier techniques were employed to assess the predictability of each method. There was not simply one method that predicts Vss accurately for all compounds. Across methods, the maximum success rate in predicting human Vss was 100%, 94%, and 78% of the compounds with predictions falling within tenfold, threefold, and twofold error, respectively, of the observed Vss . Generally, the methods that made use of in vivo preclinical data were more predictive than those methods that relied solely on in vitro data. However, for many compounds, in vivo data from only two species (generally rat and dog) were available and/or the required in vitro data were missing, which meant some methods could not be properly evaluated. It is recommended to initially use the in vitro tissue composition-based equations to predict Vss in preclinical species and humans, putting the assumptions and compound properties into context. As in vivo data become available, these predictions should be reassessed and rationalized to indicate the level of confidence (uncertainty) in the human Vss prediction. The top three methods that perform strongly at integrating in vivo data in this way were the Øie-Tozer, the rat -dog-human proportionality equation, and the lumped-PBPK approach. Overall, the scientific benefit of this study was to obtain greater characterization of predictions of human Vss from several methods available in the literature. Copyright

  3. The Value of Geriatric Assessments in Predicting Treatment Tolerance and All-Cause Mortality in Older Patients With Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Alinda G.; Smorenburg, Carolien H.; de Rooij, Sophia E.; van Munster, Barbara C.

    2012-01-01

    Background. Awareness of the use of geriatric assessments for older patients with cancer is increasing. The aim of this review is to summarize all available evidence on the association between geriatric assessments and relevant oncologic outcomes. Method. A systematic search was conducted in Medline and Embase of studies on geriatric assessment in oncology, focusing on the association between baseline assessment and outcome. Results. The literature search identified 2008 reports; 51 publications from 37 studies were selected for inclusion in the review. The quality of studies was heterogeneous and generally poor. A median of five geriatric conditions were assessed per study (interquartile range: 4–8). Little consistency was found in the results of the studies. Furthermore, different tools appear to be predictive depending on the outcome measure: frailty, nutritional status, and comorbidity assessed by the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics were predictive for all-cause mortality; frailty was predictive for toxicity of chemotherapy; cognitive impairment and activities of daily living impairment were predictive for chemotherapy completion; and instrumental activities of daily living impairment was predictive for perioperative complications. Conclusion. Although various geriatric conditions appear to be of some value in predicting outcome in elderly patients with cancer, the results are too inconsistent to guide treatment decisions. Further research is needed to elucidate the role of geriatric assessments in the oncologic decision-making process for these patients. PMID:22941970

  4. Analytical Model of Underground Train Induced Vibrations on Nearby Building Structures in Cameroon: Assessment and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezin Seba MINSILI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper was to assess and predict the effect of vibrations induced by an underground railway on nearby-existing buildings prior to the construction of projected new railway lines of the National Railway Master Plan of Cameroon and after upgrading of the railway conceded to CAMRAIL linking the two most densely populated cities of Cameroon: Douala and Yaoundé. With the source-transmitter-receiver mathematical model as the train-soil-structure interaction model, taking into account sub-model parameters such as type of the train-railway system, typical geotechnical conditions of the ground and the sensitivity of the nearby buildings, the analysis is carried out over the entire system using the dynamic finite element method in the time domain. This subdivision of the model is a powerful tool that allows to consider different alternatives of sub-models with different characteristics, and thus to determine any critical excessive vibration impact. Based on semi-empirical analytical results obtained from presented models, the present work assesses and predicts characteristics of traffic-induced vibrations as a function of time duration, intensity and vehicle speed, as well as their influence on buildings at different levels.

  5. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link,...... chronic diseases and mortality. A short, valid MMSE subscale, which was a powerful predictor of mortality especially among men, is attractive for research and clinical practice......., as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...... long intervals. The association persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, Body Mass Index, mobility, and comorbidity and was unaffected by self-reported specific chronic diseases in both men and women. In addition, disease related risk of mortality was substantially reduced...

  6. Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzav, Joel

    2011-06-01

    According to Austro-British philosopher Karl Popper, a system of theoretical claims is scientific only if it is methodologically falsifiable, i.e., only if systematic attempts to falsify or severely test the system are being carried out [Popper, 2005, pp. 20, 62]. He holds that a test of a theoretical system is severe if and only if it is a test of the applicability of the system to a case in which the system's failure is likely in light of background knowledge, i.e., in light of scientific assumptions other than those of the system being tested [Popper, 2002, p. 150]. Popper counts the 1919 tests of general relativity's then unlikely predictions of the deflection of light in the Sun's gravitational field as severe. An implication of Popper's above condition for being a scientific theoretical system is the injunction to assess theoretical systems in light of how well they have withstood severe testing. Applying this injunction to assessing the quality of climate model predictions (CMPs), including climate model projections, would involve assigning a quality to each CMP as a function of how well it has withstood severe tests allowed by its implications for past, present, and nearfuture climate or, alternatively, as a function of how well the models that generated the CMP have withstood severe tests of their suitability for generating the CMP.

  7. High resolution decadal precipitation predictions over the continental United States for impacts assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Kaustubh; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2017-10-01

    Unprecedented alterations in precipitation characteristics over the last century and especially in the last two decades have posed serious socio-economic problems to society in terms of hydro-meteorological extremes, in particular flooding and droughts. The origin of these alterations has its roots in changing climatic conditions; however, its threatening implications can only be dealt with through meticulous planning that is based on realistic and skillful decadal precipitation predictions (DPPs). Skillful DPPs represent a very challenging prospect because of the complexities associated with precipitation predictions. Because of the limited skill and coarse spatial resolution, the DPPs provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) fail to be directly applicable for impact assessment. Here, we focus on nine GCMs and quantify the seasonally and regionally averaged skill in DPPs over the continental United States. We address the problems pertaining to the limited skill and resolution by applying linear and kernel regression-based statistical downscaling approaches. For both the approaches, statistical relationships established over the calibration period (1961-1990) are applied to the retrospective and near future decadal predictions by GCMs to obtain DPPs at ∼4 km resolution. The skill is quantified across different metrics that evaluate potential skill, biases, long-term statistical properties, and uncertainty. Both the statistical approaches show improvements with respect to the raw GCM data, particularly in terms of the long-term statistical properties and uncertainty, irrespective of lead time. The outcome of the study is monthly DPPs from nine GCMs with 4-km spatial resolution, which can be used as a key input for impacts assessments.

  8. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  9. Predicting falls in community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review of task performance-based assessment tools

    OpenAIRE

    Power, Valerie; van de ven, Pepijn; Nelson, John; Clifford,Amanda M.

    2014-01-01

    peer-reviewed INTRODUCTION: Falls among community-dwelling older adults are a common yet often preventable occurrence. Clinicians frequently use task-based assessment tools to evaluate clients' balance and mobility with the aim of predicting falls and providing targeted fall prevention interventions, but no consensus exists on the optimum tool(s) to use for this purpose. This review aims to identify the task-based assessment tools that can best predict falls among community-dwelling older ...

  10. Critical Assessment of Methods of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) - Round XII.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moult, John; Fidelis, Krzysztof; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Schwede, Torsten; Tramontano, Anna

    2017-10-30

    This paper reports the outcome of the 12th round of Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP12), held in 2016. CASP is a community experiment to determine the state of the art in modeling protein structure from amino acid sequence. Participants are provided sequence information and in turn provide protein structure models and related information. Analysis of the submitted structures by independent assessors provides a comprehensive picture of the capabilities of current methods, and allows progress to be identified. This was again an exciting round of CASP, with significant advances in four areas: (i) The use of new methods for predicting three dimensional contacts led to a two-fold improvement in contact accuracy. (ii) As a consequence, model accuracy for proteins where no template was available improved dramatically. (iii) Models based on a structural template showed overall improvement in accuracy. (iv) Methods for estimating the accuracy of a model continued to improve. CASP continued to develop new areas: (i) Assessing methods for building quaternary structure models, including an expansion of the collaboration between CASP and CAPRI. (ii) Modeling with the aid of experimental data was extended to include SAXS data, as well as again using chemical crosslinking information. (iii) A team of assessors evaluated the suitability of models for a range of applications, including mutation interpretation, analysis of ligand binding properties, and identification of interfaces. This paper describes the experiment and summarizes the results. The rest of this special issue of PROTEINS contains papers describing CASP12 results and assessments in more detail. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Introduction: Assessment of aerothermodynamic flight prediction tools through ground and flight experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmisseur, John D.; Erbland, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This article provides an introduction and overview to the efforts of NATO Research and Technology Organization Task Group AVT-136, Assessment of Aerothermodynamic Flight Prediction Tools through Ground and Flight Experimentation. During the period of 2006-2010, AVT-136 coordinated international contributions to assess the state-of-the-art and research challenges for the prediction of critical aerothermodynamic flight phenomena based on the extrapolation of ground test and numerical simulation. To achieve this goal, efforts were organized around six scientific topic areas: (1) Noses and leading edges, (2) Shock Interactions and Control Surfaces, (3) Shock Layers and Radiation, (4) Boundary Layer Transition, (5) Gas-Surface Interactions, and (6) Base and Afterbody Flows. A key component of the AVT-136 strategy was comparison of state-of-the-art numerical simulations with data to be acquired from planned flight research programs. Although it was recognized from the onset of AVT-136 activities that reliance on flight research data yet to be collected posed a significant risk, the group concluded the substantial benefit to be derived from comparison of computational simulations with flight data warranted pursuit of such a program of work. Unfortunately, program delays and failures in the flight programs contributing to the AVT-136 effort prevented timely access to flight research data. Despite this setback, most of the scientific topic areas developed by the Task Group made significant progress in the assessment of current capabilities. Additionally, the activities of AVT-136 generated substantial interest within the international scientific research community and the work of the Task Group was prominently featured in a total of six invited sessions in European and American technical conferences. In addition to this overview, reviews of the state-of-the-art and research challenges identified by the six research thrusts of AVT-136 are also included in this special

  12. Validation of the multiplier method for leg-length predictions on a large European cohort and an assessment of the effect of physiological age on predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aird, J J; Cheesman, C L; Schade, A T; Monsell, F P

    2017-01-01

    The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) prospective cohort was used to determine the accuracy of the Paley multiplier method for predicting leg length. Using menarche as a proxy, physiological age was then used to increase the accuracy of the multiplier. Chronological age was corrected in female patients over the age of eight years with documented date of first menses. Final sub-ischial leg length and predicted final leg length were predicted for all data points. Good correlation was demonstrated between the Paley and ALSPAC data. The average error in prediction depended on the time of assessment, tending to improve as the child got older. It varied from 2.2 cm at the age of seven years to 1.8 cm at the age of 14 years. When chronological age was corrected, the accuracy of multiplier increased. Age correction of 50% improved multiplier predictions by up to 28%. There appears to have been no significant change in growth trajectories of the two populations who were chronologically separated by 40 years. While the Paley data were based on extracting trends from averaged data, the ALSPAC dataset provides descriptive statistics from which it is possible to compare populations and assess the accuracy of the multiplier method. The data suggest that the accuracy improves as the patient gets close to the average skeletal maturity but that results need to be interpreted in conjunction with a radiological assessment of the growth plates. The magnitude of the errors in prediction suggest that when using the multiplier, the clinician must remain vigilant and prepared to perform a contralateral epiphyseodisis if the prediction proves to be wrong. The data suggest a relationship between the multiplier and menarche. There appears to be a factorisation and when accounting for physiological age, one needs to correct by 50% of the difference between chronological and physiological age.

  13. The predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of the positive and negative predictive values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiu, Shang-Ying; Gatsonis, Constantine

    2008-07-13

    Binary test outcomes typically result from dichotomizing a continuous test variable, observable or latent. The effect of the threshold for test positivity on test sensitivity and specificity has been studied extensively in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. However, considerably less attention has been given to the study of the effect of the positivity threshold on the predictive value of a test. In this paper we present methods for the joint study of the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of diagnostic tests. We define the predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve that consists of all possible pairs of PPV and NPV as the threshold for test positivity varies. Unlike the simple trade-off between sensitivity and specificity exhibited in the ROC curve, the PROC curve displays what is often a complex interplay between PPV and NPV as the positivity threshold changes. We study the monotonicity and other geometric properties of the PROC curve and propose summary measures for the predictive performance of tests. We also formulate and discuss regression models for the estimation of the effects of covariates.

  14. Predicting Performance: A Comparison of University Supervisors' Predictions and Teacher Candidates' Scores on a Teaching Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandholtz, Judith Haymore; Shea, Lauren M.

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of teaching performance assessments has prompted a range of concerns. Some educators question whether these assessments provide information beyond what university supervisors gain through their formative evaluations and classroom observations of candidates. This research examines the relationship between supervisors' predictions…

  15. NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT IN PATIENTS PREDICTED TO MAJOR ABDOMINAL SURGERY AT THE GENERAL HOSPITAL CELJE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Novak

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Malnutrition has serious implications for recovery after surgery. Early detection of malnutrition with nutritional support minimizes postoperative complications. Nutritional assessment tools need to be simple and suitable for use in everyday practice. In our study we wanted to determine, how many patients might benefit from nutritional support.Methods. From April to August 1999 fifty consecutively admitted patients predicted to major abdominal surgery have been examined. We used Mini nutritional assessment (MNA, Buzby’s nutrition risk index (NRI, blood albumin level and weight loss in the last 3 months period prior to the examination, to assess nutritional status.Results. We examined 50 patients (27 males and 23 females, age 76.5 ± 16.5 and confirmed malnutrition in 40% of patients with MNA and serum albumin level. The increased risk for nutrition-associated complications was confirmed by NRI and weight loss in 44%.Conclusions. A confident diagnosis of malnutrition and increased risk for nutrition-associated complications can be established by using a combination of simple methods like MNA, NRI, weight loss and serum albumin level. Almost half of the patients admitted for major abdominal surgery in General hospital Celje suffer from malnutrition and they may benefit with early nutritional intervention.

  16. Risk assessment predictions of open dumping area after closure using Monte Carlo simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Radhi, Mohd Shahril Mat; Omar, Husaini

    2017-10-01

    Currently, there are many abandoned open dumping areas that were left without any proper mitigation measures. These open dumping areas could pose serious hazard to human and pollute the environment. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk assessment at the open dumping area after they has been closed using Monte Carlo Simulation method. The risk assessment exercise is conducted at the Kuala Lumpur dumping area. The rapid urbanisation of Kuala Lumpur coupled with increase in population lead to increase in waste generation. It leads to more dumping/landfill area in Kuala Lumpur. The first stage of this study involve the assessment of the dumping area and samples collections. It followed by measurement of settlement of dumping area using oedometer. The risk of the settlement is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation calculates the risk and the long-term settlement. The model simulation result shows that risk level of the Kuala Lumpur open dumping area ranges between Level III to Level IV i.e. between medium risk to high risk. These settlement (ΔH) is between 3 meters to 7 meters. Since the risk is between medium to high, it requires mitigation measures such as replacing the top waste soil with new sandy gravel soil. This will increase the strength of the soil and reduce the settlement.

  17. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  18. Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yu; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Grieneisen, Michael L; Zhang, Minghua; Di, Baofeng

    2017-11-01

    In China, ozone pollution shows an increasing trend and becomes the primary air pollutant in warm seasons. Leveraging the air quality monitoring network, a random forest model is developed to predict the daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations ([O3]MDA8) across China in 2015 for human exposure assessment. This model captures the observed spatiotemporal variations of [O3]MDA8 by using the data of meteorology, elevation, and recent-year emission inventories (cross-validation R(2) = 0.69 and RMSE = 26 μg/m(3)). Compared with chemical transport models that require a plenty of variables and expensive computation, the random forest model shows comparable or higher predictive performance based on only a handful of readily-available variables at much lower computational cost. The nationwide population-weighted [O3]MDA8 is predicted to be 84 ± 23 μg/m(3) annually, with the highest seasonal mean in the summer (103 ± 8 μg/m(3)). The summer [O3]MDA8 is predicted to be the highest in North China (125 ± 17 μg/m(3)). Approximately 58% of the population lives in areas with more than 100 nonattainment days ([O3]MDA8>100 μg/m(3)), and 12% of the population are exposed to [O3]MDA8>160 μg/m(3) (WHO Interim Target 1) for more than 30 days. As the most populous zones in China, the Beijing-Tianjin Metro, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Sichuan Basin are predicted to be at 154, 141, 124, and 98 nonattainment days, respectively. Effective controls of O3 pollution are urgently needed for the highly-populated zones, especially the Beijing-Tianjin Metro with seasonal [O3]MDA8 of 140 ± 29 μg/m(3) in summer. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first statistical modeling work of ambient O3 for China at the national level. This timely and extensively validated [O3]MDA8 dataset is valuable for refining epidemiological analyses on O3 pollution in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Coccia

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The work aims at discussing the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and flood emergency management, its relevance to improve the decision making process and the techniques to be used for its assessment.

    Real time flood forecasting requires taking into account predictive uncertainty for a number of reasons. Deterministic hydrological/hydraulic forecasts give useful information about real future events, but their predictions, as usually done in practice, cannot be taken and used as real future occurrences but rather used as pseudo-measurements of future occurrences in order to reduce the uncertainty of decision makers. Predictive Uncertainty (PU is in fact defined as the probability of occurrence of a future value of a predictand (such as water level, discharge or water volume conditional upon prior observations and knowledge as well as on all the information we can obtain on that specific future value from model forecasts. When dealing with commensurable quantities, as in the case of floods, PU must be quantified in terms of a probability distribution function which will be used by the emergency managers in their decision process in order to improve the quality and reliability of their decisions.

    After introducing the concept of PU, the presently available processors are introduced and discussed in terms of their benefits and limitations. In this work the Model Conditional Processor (MCP has been extended to the possibility of using two joint Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs, in order to improve adaptation to low and high flows.

    The paper concludes by showing the results of the application of the MCP on two case studies, the Po river in Italy and the Baron Fork river, OK, USA. In the Po river case the data provided by the Civil Protection of the Emilia Romagna region have been used to implement an operational example, where the predicted variable is the observed water level. In the Baron Fork River

  20. Understanding and predicting suicidality using a combined genomic and clinical risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niculescu, A B; Levey, D F; Phalen, P L; Le-Niculescu, H; Dainton, H D; Jain, N; Belanger, E; James, A; George, S; Weber, H; Graham, D L; Schweitzer, R; Ladd, T B; Learman, R; Niculescu, E M; Vanipenta, N P; Khan, F N; Mullen, J; Shankar, G; Cook, S; Humbert, C; Ballew, A; Yard, M; Gelbart, T; Shekhar, A; Schork, N J; Kurian, S M; Sandusky, G E; Salomon, D R

    2015-11-01

    show broad-spectrum predictive ability across psychiatric diagnoses. Indeed, the UP-Suicide was able to predict suicidal ideation across psychiatric diagnoses with an AUC of 92%. For bipolar disorder, it predicted suicidal ideation with an AUC of 98%, and future hospitalizations with an AUC of 94%. Of note, both types of tests we developed (blood biomarkers and clinical information apps) do not require asking the individual assessed if they have thoughts of suicide, as individuals who are truly suicidal often do not share that information with clinicians. We propose that the widespread use of such risk prediction tests as part of routine or targeted healthcare assessments will lead to early disease interception followed by preventive lifestyle modifications and proactive treatment.

  1. Video-based quantification of body movement during social interaction indicates the severity of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupper, Zeno; Ramseyer, Fabian; Hoffmann, Holger; Kalbermatten, Samuel; Tschacher, Wolfgang

    2010-08-01

    In schizophrenia, nonverbal behavior, including body movement, is of theoretical and clinical importance. Although reduced nonverbal expressiveness is a major component of the negative symptoms encountered in schizophrenia, few studies have objectively assessed body movement during social interaction. In the present study, 378 brief, videotaped role-play scenes involving 27 stabilized outpatients diagnosed with paranoid-type schizophrenia were analyzed using Motion Energy Analysis (MEA). This method enables the objective measuring of body movement in conjunction with ordinary video recordings. Correlations between movement parameters (percentage of time in movement, movement speed) and symptom ratings from independent PANSS interviews were calculated. Movement parameters proved to be highly reliable. In keeping with predictions, reduced movement and movement speed correlated with negative symptoms. Accordingly, in patients who exhibited noticeable movement for less than 20% of the observation time, prominent negative symptoms were highly probable. As a control measure, the percentage of movement exhibited by the patients during role-play scenes was compared to that of their normal interactants. Patients with negative symptoms differed from normal interactants by showing significantly reduced head and body movement. Two specific positive symptoms were possibly related to movement parameters: suspiciousness tended to correlate with reduced head movement, and the expression of unusual thought content tended to relate to increased movement. Overall, a close and theoretically meaningful association between the objective movement parameters and the symptom profiles was found. MEA appears to be an objective, reliable and valid method for quantifying nonverbal behavior, an aspect which may furnish new insights into the processes related to reduced expressiveness in schizophrenia. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Brain injury prediction: assessing the combined probability of concussion using linear and rotational head acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowson, Steven; Duma, Stefan M

    2013-05-01

    Recent research has suggested possible long term effects due to repetitive concussions, highlighting the importance of developing methods to accurately quantify concussion risk. This study introduces a new injury metric, the combined probability of concussion, which computes the overall risk of concussion based on the peak linear and rotational accelerations experienced by the head during impact. The combined probability of concussion is unique in that it determines the likelihood of sustaining a concussion for a given impact, regardless of whether the injury would be reported or not. The risk curve was derived from data collected from instrumented football players (63,011 impacts including 37 concussions), which was adjusted to account for the underreporting of concussion. The predictive capability of this new metric is compared to that of single biomechanical parameters. The capabilities of these parameters to accurately predict concussion incidence were evaluated using two separate datasets: the Head Impact Telemetry System (HITS) data and National Football League (NFL) data collected from impact reconstructions using dummies (58 impacts including 25 concussions). Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated, and all parameters were significantly better at predicting injury than random guessing. The combined probability of concussion had the greatest area under the curve for all datasets. In the HITS dataset, the combined probability of concussion and linear acceleration were significantly better predictors of concussion than rotational acceleration alone, but not different from each other. In the NFL dataset, there were no significant differences between parameters. The combined probability of concussion is a valuable method to assess concussion risk in a laboratory setting for evaluating product safety.

  3. Assessing fitness-for-duty and predicting performance with cognitive neurophysiological measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael E.; Gevins, Alan

    2005-05-01

    Progress is described in developing a novel test of neurocognitive status for fitness-for-duty testing. The Sustained Attention & Memory (SAM) test combines neurophysiologic (EEG) measures of brain activation with performance measures during a psychometric test of sustained attention and working memory, and then gauges changes in neurocognitive status relative to an individual"s normative baseline. In studies of the effects of common psychoactive substances that can affect job performance, including sedating antihistamines, caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, and prescription medications, test sensitivity was greater for the combined neurophysiological and performance measures than for task performance measures by themselves. The neurocognitive effects of overnight sleep deprivation were quite evident, and such effects predicted subsequent performance impairment on a flight simulator task. Sensitivity to diurnal circadian variations was also demonstrated. With further refinement and independent validation, the SAM Test may prove useful for assessing readiness-to-perform in high-asset personnel working in demanding, high risk situations.

  4. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  5. Predictive assessment of kidney functional recovery following ischemic injury using optical spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Rajesh N.; Pivetti, Christopher D.; Ramsamooj, Rajendra; Troppmann, Christoph; Demos, Stavros G.

    2017-05-01

    Functional changes in rat kidneys during the induced ischemic injury and recovery phases were explored using multimodal autofluorescence and light scattering imaging. The aim is to evaluate the use of noncontact optical signatures for rapid assessment of tissue function and viability. Specifically, autofluorescence images were acquired in vivo under 355, 325, and 266 nm illumination while light scattering images were collected at the excitation wavelengths as well as using relatively narrowband light centered at 500 nm. The images were simultaneously recorded using a multimodal optical imaging system. The signals were analyzed to obtain time constants, which were correlated to kidney dysfunction as determined by a subsequent survival study and histopathological analysis. Analysis of both the light scattering and autofluorescence images suggests that changes in tissue microstructure, fluorophore emission, and blood absorption spectral characteristics, coupled with vascular response, contribute to the behavior of the observed signal, which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer the ability to predict posttransplant kidney function.

  6. Effect of an online video-based intervention to increase HIV testing in men who have sex with men in Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magaly M Blas

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Although many men who have sex with men (MSM in Peru are unaware of their HIV status, they are frequent users of the Internet, and can be approached by that medium for promotion of HIV testing.We conducted an online randomized controlled trial to compare the effect of HIV-testing motivational videos versus standard public health text, both offered through a gay website. The videos were customized for two audiences based on self-identification: either gay or non-gay men. The outcomes evaluated were 'intention to get tested' and 'HIV testing at the clinic.'In the non-gay identified group, 97 men were randomly assigned to the video-based intervention and 90 to the text-based intervention. Non-gay identified participants randomized to the video-based intervention were more likely to report their intention of getting tested for HIV within the next 30 days (62.5% vs. 15.4%, Relative Risk (RR: 2.77, 95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.42-5.39. After a mean of 125.5 days of observation (range 42-209 days, 11 participants randomized to the video and none of the participants randomized to text attended our clinic requesting HIV testing (p = 0.001. In the gay-identified group, 142 men were randomized to the video-based intervention and 130 to the text-based intervention. Gay-identified participants randomized to the video were more likely to report intentions of getting an HIV test within 30 days, although not significantly (50% vs. 21.6%, RR: 1.54, 95% CI: 0.74-3.20. At the end of follow up, 8 participants who watched the video and 10 who read the text visited our clinic for HIV testing (Hazard Ratio: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.40-2.85.This study provides some evidence of the efficacy of a video-based online intervention in improving HIV testing among non-gay-identified MSM in Peru. This intervention may be adopted by institutions with websites oriented to motivate HIV testing among similar MSM populations.Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00751192.

  7. Hand Signs for Lip-syncing: The Emergence of a Gestural Language on Musical.ly as a Video-Based Equivalent to Emoji

    OpenAIRE

    Rettberg, Jill Walker

    2017-01-01

    Video-based communication is increasingly common online. This article looks at the hand signs that are used in lip-syncing videos on the app musical.ly and argues that they constitute a codified, non-verbal language of pictograms that is equivalent to emoji in text-based communication. Seeing the lip-syncing videos as performances allows us to situate the hand signs as the latest development in a long history of formalized gestures for theatrical performance. By recognizing this emergent gest...

  8. Towards Systematic Prediction of Urban Heat Islands: Grounding Measurements, Assessing Modeling Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jackson Voelkel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available While there exists extensive assessment of urban heat, we observe myriad methods for describing thermal distribution, factors that mediate temperatures, and potential impacts on urban populations. In addition, the limited spatial and temporal resolution of satellite-derived heat measurements may limit the capacity of decision makers to take effective actions for reducing mortalities in vulnerable populations whose locations require highly-refined measurements. Needed are high resolution spatial and temporal information for urban heat. In this study, we ask three questions: (1 how do urban heat islands vary throughout the day? (2 what statistical methods best explain the presence of temperatures at sub-meter spatial scales; and (3 what landscape features help to explain variation in urban heat islands? Using vehicle-based temperature measurements at three periods of the day in the Pacific Northwest city of Portland, Oregon (USA, we incorporate LiDAR-derived datasets, and evaluate three statistical techniques for modeling and predicting variation in temperatures during a heat wave. Our results indicate that the random forest technique best predicts temperatures, and that the evening model best explains the variation in temperature. The results suggest that ground-based measurements provide high levels of accuracy for describing the distribution of urban heat, its temporal variation, and specific locations where targeted interventions with communities can reduce mortalities from heat events.

  9. A physics-based approach for the assessment and prediction of shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, D.; Ran, Q.

    2011-12-01

    An infinite slope stability numerical model driven by the comprehensive physics-based Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM) is presented. In this approach, the failure plane is assumed to be parallel to the hydraulic gradient instead of the slope surface. The model is capable of considering complex topographic feature since no pre-processing of depression and flat area in the input DEM is needed. The presented model has been tested for a small catchment in Zhejiang Province, China, to estimate the shallow landslide susceptibility under different rainfall conditions. Three indicators, including the factor of safety, the area of landslides, and the volume of landslides, have been introduced in delineating and mapping landslides. Based on the three indicators, prediction curves with different landslides damage degree are given by the logit model. The results show that the presented approach is capable of estimating spatial and temporal variations for landslide susceptibilities at catchment scale, providing a valuable tool for the assessment and prediction of shallow landslide.

  10. Rapid in situ assessment for predicting soil quality using an algae-soaked disc seeding assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Sun-Hwa; Moon, Jongmin; Kim, Shin Woong; Kim, Hakyeong; Jeong, Seung-Woo; An, Youn-Joo

    2017-11-16

    The soil quality of remediated land is altered and this land consequently exerts unexpected biological effects on terrestrial organisms. Therefore, field evaluation of such land should be conducted using biological indicators. Algae are a promising new biological indicator since they are a food source for organisms in higher soil trophic levels and easily sampled from the soil. Field evaluation of soil characteristics is preferred to be testing in laboratory conditions because many biological effects cannot be duplicated during laboratory evaluations. Herein, we describe a convenient and rapid algae-soaked disc seeding assay for assessing soil quality in the field based on soil algae. The collection of algae is easy and rapid and the method predicts the short-term quality of contaminated, remediated, and amended farm and paddy soils. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is yet to be extensively evaluated, and the method cannot be applied to loamy sand soil in in situ evaluations. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is recommended for prediction of soil quality in in situ evaluations because it reflects all variations in the environment. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay will help to develop management strategies for in situ evaluation.

  11. Interactive Digital Serious Games for the Assessment, Rehabilitation, and Prediction of Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Kazmi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dementia is a serious, progressive, and often debilitating illness with no known cure, having a severe adverse effect on memory, behaviour, reasoning, and communication. A comprehensive review of current refereed research material in the use of games in this area is scarce and suffers from being orientated towards commercially available games or derivatives such as “Dr. Kawashima’s brain training.” There is much lesser concern for bespoke research grade alternatives. This review will attempt to assess the current state of the art in research orientated games for dementia, importantly identifying systems capable of prediction before the onset of the disease. It can be ascertained from the literature reviewed that there are clearly a large number of interactive computer game based mechanisms used for dementia. However, these are each highly intrusive in terms of affecting normal living and the patient is aware of being tested; furthermore their long-term or real benefits are unknown as is their effect over conventional tests. It is important to predict cognitive impairment at a stage early enough to maximise benefit from treatment and therapeutic intervention. Considering the availability, use, and increasing power of modern mobile smartphones, it is logically plausible to explore this platform for dementia healthcare.

  12. Assessment of hazard metrics for predicting field benthic invertebrate toxicity in the Detroit River, Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPhedran, Kerry N; Grgicak-Mannion, Alice; Paterson, Gord; Briggs, Ted; Ciborowski, Jan Jh; Haffner, G Douglas; Drouillard, Ken G

    2017-03-01

    Numerical sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) are frequently used to interpret site-specific sediment chemistry and predict potential toxicity to benthic communities. These SQGs are useful for a screening line of evidence (LOE) that can be combined with other LOEs in a full weight of evidence (WOE) assessment of impacted sites. Three common multichemical hazard quotient methods (probable effect concentration [PEC]-Qavg , PEC-Qmet , and PEC-Qsum ) and a novel (hazard score [HZD]) approach were used in conjunction with a consensus-based set of SQGs to evaluate the ability of different scoring metrics to predict the biological effects of sediment contamination under field conditions. Multivariate analyses were first used to categorize river sediments into distinct habitats based on a set of physicochemical parameters to include gravel, low and high flow sand, and silt. For high flow sand and gravel, no significant dose-response relationships between numerically dominant species and various toxicity metric scores were observed. Significant dose-response relationships were observed for chironomid abundances and toxicity scores in low flow sand and silt habitats. For silt habitats, the HZD scoring metric provided the best predictor of chironomid abundances compared to various PEC-Q methods according to goodness-of-fit tests. For low flow sand habitats, PEC-Qsum followed by HZD, provided the best predictors of chironomid abundance. Differences in apparent chironomid toxicity between the 2 habitats suggest habitat-specific differences in chemical bioavailability and indicator taxa sensitivity. Using an IBI method, the HZD, PEC-Qavg , and PEC-Qmet approaches provided reasonable correlations with calculated IBI values in both silt and low flow sand habitats but not for gravel or high flow sands. Computation differences between the various multi-chemical toxicity scoring metrics and how this contributes to bias in different estimates of chemical mixture toxicity scores are

  13. Can the alpha angle assessment of cam impingement predict acetabular cartilage delamination?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulé, Paul E; Hynes, Kelly; Parker, Gillian; Kemp, Kyle A

    2012-12-01

    Substantial acetabular cartilage damage is commonly present in patients suffering from femoral acetabular impingement (FAI). A better understanding of which patient is at risk of developing substantial cartilage damage is critical for establishing appropriate treatment guidelines. We asked: (1) Does the cam deformity severity in FAI as assessed by alpha angle predict acetabular cartilage delamination? And (2) what are the clinical and radiographic findings in patients with acetabular cartilage delamination? One hundred sixty-seven patients (129 males, 38 females) with a mean age of 38 years (range, 17-59 years) underwent joint preservation surgery for cam-type FAI. All data were collected prospectively. We assessed center-edge angle and Tönnis grade on AP radiographs and alpha angle on specialized lateral radiographs. Acetabular cartilage damage was assessed intraoperatively using the classification of Beck et al., with Type 3 and greater qualifying as delamination. For all hips, mean alpha angle was 65.5° (range, 41°-90°), and mean center-edge angle was 33.3° (range, 21°-52.5°). Patients with an alpha angle of 65° or greater had an odds ratio (OR) of 4.00 (95% CI, 1.26-12.71) of having Type 3 or greater damage. Increased age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07) and male sex (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.09-4.62) were associated with Type 3 or greater damage, while this was the opposite for acetabular coverage as assessed by center-edge angle (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-0.99). Patients with cam-type FAI and an alpha angle of 65° or more are at increased risk of substantial cartilage damage while increasing acetabular coverage appears to have a protective effect. Level III, prognostic study. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  14. The Predictive Validity of a Computer-Adaptive Assessment of Kindergarten and First-Grade Reading Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemens, Nathan H.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Luo, Wen; Cerda, Carissa; Blakely, Alane; Frosch, Jennifer; Gamez-Patience, Brenda; Jones, Meredith

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of a computer-adaptive assessment for measuring kindergarten reading skills using the STAR Early Literacy (SEL) test. The findings showed that the results of SEL assessments administered during the fall, winter, and spring of kindergarten were moderate and statistically significant predictors of year-end…

  15. Towards understanding and predicting suicidality in women: biomarkers and clinical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Niculescu, E M; Le-Niculescu, H; Dainton, H L; Phalen, P L; Ladd, T B; Weber, H; Belanger, E; Graham, D L; Khan, F N; Vanipenta, N P; Stage, E C; Ballew, A; Yard, M; Gelbart, T; Shekhar, A; Schork, N J; Kurian, S M; Sandusky, G E; Salomon, D R; Niculescu, A B

    2016-06-01

    Women are under-represented in research on suicidality to date. Although women have a lower rate of suicide completion than men, due in part to the less-violent methods used, they have a higher rate of suicide attempts. Our group has previously identified genomic (blood gene expression biomarkers) and clinical information (apps) predictors for suicidality in men. We now describe pilot studies in women. We used a powerful within-participant discovery approach to identify genes that change in expression between no suicidal ideation (no SI) and high suicidal ideation (high SI) states (n=12 participants out of a cohort of 51 women psychiatric participants followed longitudinally, with diagnoses of bipolar disorder, depression, schizoaffective disorder and schizophrenia). We then used a Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to prioritize the candidate biomarkers identified in the discovery step by using all the prior evidence in the field. Next, we validated for suicidal behavior the top-ranked biomarkers for SI, in a demographically matched cohort of women suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=6), by assessing which markers were stepwise changed from no SI to high SI to suicide completers. We then tested the 50 biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction in the validation step, as well as top increased and decreased biomarkers from the discovery and prioritization steps, in a completely independent test cohort of women psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of SI (n=33) and in a future follow-up cohort of psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of psychiatric hospitalizations due to suicidality (n=24). Additionally, we examined how two clinical instruments in the form of apps, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality (CFI-S) and Simplified Affective State Scale (SASS), previously tested in men, perform in women. The top CFI-S item distinguishing high SI from no SI states was the chronic stress of social isolation. We

  16. Prolonged impairment of deglutition in supratentorial ischaemic stroke: the predictive value of Parramatta Hospitals' Assessment of Dysphagia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kägi, Georg; Leisi, Natascha; Galovic, Marian; Müller-Baumberger, Marlise; Krammer, Werner; Weder, Bruno

    Up to 50% of ischaemic stroke patients show initial dysphagia, which may persist for months. Guidelines recommend switching nasogastric (NG) to percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) tube feeding at the second week after the stroke if impaired deglutition is expected for another 4 weeks. Precise prognostic criteria are lacking. We hypothesised that the Parramatta Hospitals' Assessment of Dysphagia (PAHD) performed 8 to 10 days after the stroke predicts impaired deglutition for another 4 weeks. After a first dysphagia assessment (buccolingual motor function, liquid and semisolid swallow tests, "two-out-of-six" scale) within 48 hours of onset, patients with a first hemispheric stroke and risk of aspiration, defined as a two-out-of-six scale score of ≥2 (dysphonia, dysarthria, abnormal gag reflex, abnormal volitional cough, cough / voice change after swallowing) were included and were assessed by a blinded rater using the PHAD. The same dysphagia assessments were repeated 8 to 10 days after the stroke (second assessment) and patients remained in the study if the two-out-of-six scale score remained ≥2. At a final evaluation by telephone after 4 weeks, impaired deglutition was assessed with the Bogenhausen dysphagia score (BODS-2). Exclusion criteria were infratentorial or recurrent stroke and pre-existing dysphagia. The primary objective was to define a threshold score and value of the PHAD at second assessment that predicted impaired deglutition as assessed with the BODS-2 (score ≥4) at the final evaluation. The secondary objective was to explore the value of the PHAD assessed within 48 hours to predict impaired deglutition (BODS-2 ≥4) at final evaluation. To evaluate the predictive value of the PHAD score assessed 8 to 10 days after stroke onset for impaired deglutition for another 4 weeks, we determined the area under the receiver operating curve (ROC AUC). Over a 1-year period, 29 out of 252 assessed patients remained at risk of aspiration after the

  17. Prediction of critical illness in elderly outpatients using elder risk assessment: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biehl, Michelle; Takahashi, Paul Y; Cha, Stephen S; Chaudhry, Rajeev; Gajic, Ognjen; Thorsteinsdottir, Bjorg

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Identifying patients at high risk of critical illness is necessary for the development and testing of strategies to prevent critical illness. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between high elder risk assessment (ERA) score and critical illness requiring intensive care and to see if the ERA can be used as a prediction tool to identify elderly patients at the primary care visit who are at high risk of critical illness. Methods A population-based historical cohort study was conducted in elderly patients (age >65 years) identified at the time of primary care visit in Rochester, MN, USA. Predictors including age, previous hospital days, and comorbid health conditions were identified from routine administrative data available in the electronic medical record. The main outcome was critical illness, defined as sepsis, need for mechanical ventilation, or death within 2 years of initial visit. Patients with an ERA score of 16 were considered to be at high risk. The discrimination of the ERA score was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Of the 13,457 eligible patients, 9,872 gave consent for medical record review and had full information on intensive care unit utilization. The mean age was 75.8 years (standard deviation ±7.6 years), and 58% were female, 94% were Caucasian, 62% were married, and 13% were living in nursing homes. In the overall group, 417 patients (4.2%) suffered from critical illness. In the 1,134 patients with ERA >16, 154 (14%) suffered from critical illness. An ERA score ≥16 predicted critical illness (odds ratio 6.35; 95% confidence interval 3.51–11.48). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75, which indicated good discrimination. Conclusion A simple model based on easily obtainable administrative data predicted critical illness in the next 2 years in elderly outpatients with up to 14% of the highest risk population suffering from critical illness

  18. Earthquake Prediction Research In Iceland, Applications For Hazard Assessments and Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.

    Earthquake prediction research in Iceland, applications for hazard assessments and warnings. The first multinational earthquake prediction research project in Iceland was the Eu- ropean Council encouraged SIL project of the Nordic countries, 1988-1995. The path selected for this research was to study the physics of crustal processes leading to earth- quakes. It was considered that small earthquakes, down to magnitude zero, were the most significant for this purpose, because of the detailed information which they pro- vide both in time and space. The test area for the project was the earthquake prone region of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The PRENLAB and PRENLAB-2 projects, 1996-2000 supported by the European Union were a direct continuation of the SIL project, but with a more multidisciplinary approach. PRENLAB stands for "Earthquake prediction research in a natural labo- ratory". The basic objective was to advance our understanding in general on where, when and how dangerous NH10earthquake motion might strike. Methods were devel- oped to study crustal processes and conditions, by microearthquake information, by continuous GPS, InSAR, theoretical modelling, fault mapping and paleoseismology. New algorithms were developed for short term warnings. A very useful short term warning was issued twice in the year 2000, one for a sudden start of an eruption in Volcano Hekla February 26, and the other 25 hours before a second (in a sequence of two) magnitude 6.6 (Ms) earthquake in the South Iceland seismic zone in June 21, with the correct location and approximate size. A formal short term warning, although not going to the public, was also issued before a magnitude 5 earthquake in November 1998. In the presentation it will be shortly described what these warnings were based on. A general hazard assessmnets was presented in scientific journals 10-15 years ago assessing within a few kilometers the location of the faults of the two 2000 earthquakes and suggesting

  19. PhRMA CPCDC initiative on predictive models of human pharmacokinetics, part 3: comparative assessement of prediction methods of human clearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Barbara J; Chien, Jenny Y; Adkison, Kimberly K; Jones, Hannah M; Rowland, Malcolm; Jones, Rhys Do; Yates, James W T; Ku, M Sherry; Gibson, Christopher R; He, Handan; Vuppugalla, Ragini; Marathe, Punit; Fischer, Volker; Dutta, Sandeep; Sinha, Vikash K; Björnsson, Thorir; Lavé, Thierry; Poulin, Patrick

    2011-10-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of various allometric and in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) methodologies with and without plasma protein binding corrections for the prediction of human intravenous (i.v.) clearance (CL). The objective was also to evaluate the IVIVE prediction methods with animal data. Methodologies were selected from the literature. Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America member companies contributed blinded datasets from preclinical and clinical studies for 108 compounds, among which 19 drugs had i.v. clinical pharmacokinetics data and were used in the analysis. In vivo and in vitro preclinical data were used to predict CL by 29 different methods. For many compounds, in vivo data from only two species (generally rat and dog) were available and/or the required in vitro data were missing, which meant some methods could not be properly evaluated. In addition, 66 methods of predicting oral (p.o.) area under the curve (AUCp.o. ) were evaluated for 107 compounds using rational combinations of i.v. CL and bioavailability (F), and direct scaling of observed p.o. CL from preclinical species. Various statistical and outlier techniques were employed to assess the predictability of each method. Across methods, the maximum success rate in predicting human CL for the 19 drugs was 100%, 94%, and 78% of the compounds with predictions falling within 10-fold, threefold, and twofold error, respectively, of the observed CL. In general, in vivo methods performed slightly better than IVIVE methods (at least in terms of measures of correlation and global concordance), with the fu intercept method and two-species-based allometry (rat-dog) being the best performing methods. IVIVE methods using microsomes (incorporating both plasma and microsomal binding) and hepatocytes (not incorporating binding) resulted in 75% and 78%, respectively, of the predictions falling within twofold error. IVIVE methods using other combinations of

  20. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Remote Sensing of Shallow Snow: Assessment and Possibilities for Improved Snow Depletion Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Helgason, W.

    2015-12-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been enthusiastically adopted by many earth scientists due to their ability to provide Digital Surface Models (DSM) and orthomosaics of unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These datasets have great potential to advance the prediction of snow hydrology in particular but have had little testing in areas of shallow snowcover. To assess the utility and possibilities of UAV data products for quantifying and predicting the properties and processes of shallow snowcovers, an intensive field campaign took place during the 2015 melt season in a prairie agricultural field in Saskatchewan, Canada. The wheat field with standing stubble (15-35cm) had little topographic relief, a shallow snow (peak <40cm) and became patchy as snowcovered area declined during melt. Over the 25-day melt period 24 flights were performed with a Sensefly Ebee UAV to map the 120 hectare area. Structure from motion techniques, as implemented in Postflight Terra 3D software, generated DSMs and orthomosaics at a 3.5 cm resolution. Orthomosaic analysis quantified snowcovered area at unprecedented accuracy and frequency allowing for new insights into the spatial characteristics of the snowcover depletion process. However, vertical errors of the DSMs were significant (root mean square error of 10-20cm) compared to snow depth, making any comparisons of DSMs too uncertain to be useful for estimating ablation directly. In contrast, the relative accuracy of the DSMs was sufficient to calculate a DSM roughness index that relates to the coefficient of variation of snow water equivalent (SWE), as measured from intensive ground measurements. The DSM roughness index alone can predict the shape of the snow depletion curve and, if used in conjunction with point measured or modelled SWE, can calculate the SWE frequency distribution and snowcover depletion. It is proposed that UAV derived surface roughness, in conjunction with point modelled or observed SWE can provide a

  1. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction: Progress and new directions in round XI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moult, John; Fidelis, Krzysztof; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Schwede, Torsten; Tramontano, Anna

    2016-09-01

    Modeling of protein structure from amino acid sequence now plays a major role in structural biology. Here we report new developments and progress from the CASP11 community experiment, assessing the state of the art in structure modeling. Notable points include the following: (1) New methods for predicting three dimensional contacts resulted in a few spectacular template free models in this CASP, whereas models based on sequence homology to proteins with experimental structure continue to be the most accurate. (2) Refinement of initial protein models, primarily using molecular dynamics related approaches, has now advanced to the point where the best methods can consistently (though slightly) improve nearly all models. (3) The use of relatively sparse NMR constraints dramatically improves the accuracy of models, and another type of sparse data, chemical crosslinking, introduced in this CASP, also shows promise for producing better models. (4) A new emphasis on modeling protein complexes, in collaboration with CAPRI, has produced interesting results, but also shows the need for more focus on this area. (5) Methods for estimating the accuracy of models have advanced to the point where they are of considerable practical use. (6) A first assessment demonstrates that models can sometimes successfully address biological questions that motivate experimental structure determination. (7) There is continuing progress in accuracy of modeling regions of structure not directly available by comparative modeling, while there is marginal or no progress in some other areas. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):4-14. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

    2015-06-01

    The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk assessment, life history strategies, and turtles: could declines be prevented or predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, J; Garber, S D

    1995-12-01

    The process of ecological risk assessment should involve the ability to predict adverse outcomes of particular environmental contaminants or human intrusions. Ecological risk assessment generally focuses on populations, communities, and ecosystems, rather than on individual health. We explore the importance of life history strategies of aquatic turtles to their risk from environmental contaminants and other human activities using three examples: the wood turtle Clemmys insculpta, a freshwater species; the diamondback terrapin Malaclemys terrapin, a littoral species; and marine turtles as a group. These turtles are partly herbivorous and are at low or intermediate levels on the food chain, yet are particularly vulnerable due to their life history strategies of being long-lived with relatively low survival of young. They suffer a variety of natural mortality factors that include predation, starvation, and disease, as well as inundation and destruction of nesting beaches and their eggs by storms. Yet they also face a number of anthropogenic hazards, including toxic chemicals and floatables (plastics); capture for food, other products, and pets; incidental mortality in fishing gear; disturbance while nesting or moving on land; injuries or death by collision with boats; and increased predator exposure because of humans. The three turtle species (or groups of species) examined have experienced these natural and anthropogenic pressures differentially, with resultant differences in the rates of population declines. Because they are lower on the food chain than other obligate carnivores, they are less vulnerable to toxics, and to date, toxics seem a relatively inconsequential environmental risk to turtles.

  4. Concentrations, input prediction and probabilistic biological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) along Gujarat coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosai, Haren B; Sachaniya, Bhumi K; Dudhagara, Dushyant R; Rajpara, Rahul K; Dave, Bharti P

    2017-08-11

    A comprehensive investigation was conducted in order to assess the levels of PAHs, their input prediction and potential risks to bacterial abundance and human health along Gujarat coastline. A total of 40 sediment samples were collected at quarterly intervals within a year from two contaminated sites-Alang-Sosiya Shipbreaking Yard (ASSBRY) and Navlakhi Port (NAV), situated at Gulf of Khambhat and Gulf of Kutch, respectively. The concentration of ΣPAHs ranged from 408.00 to 54240.45 ng g-1 dw, indicating heavy pollution of PAHs at both the contaminated sites. Furthermore, isomeric ratios and principal component analysis have revealed that inputs of PAHs at both contaminated sites were mixed-pyrogenic and petrogenic. Pearson co-relation test and regression analysis have disclosed Nap, Acel and Phe as major predictors for bacterial abundance at both contaminated sites. Significantly, cancer risk assessment of the PAHs has been exercised based on incremental lifetime cancer risks. Overall, index of cancer risk of PAHs for ASSBRY and NAV ranged from 4.11 × 10-6-2.11 × 10-5 and 9.08 × 10-6-4.50 × 10-3 indicating higher cancer risk at NAV compared to ASSBRY. The present findings provide baseline information that may help in developing advanced bioremediation and bioleaching strategies to minimize biological risk.

  5. Comparison of COPD Assessment Test and Clinical COPD Questionnaire to predict the risk of exacerbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo YS

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Yong Suk Jo,1 Ho Il Yoon,2 Deog Kyeom Kim,3 Chul-Gyu Yoo,1 Chang-Hoon Lee1 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, 2Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Gyeonggi, 3Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea Background and objective: Guidelines recommend the use of simple but comprehensive tools such as COPD Assessment Test (CAT and Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ to assess health status in COPD patients. We aimed to compare the ability of CAT and CCQ to predict exacerbation in COPD patients. Methods: We organized a multicenter prospective cohort study that included COPD patients. The relationships between CAT, CCQ, and other clinical measurements were analyzed by correlation analysis, and the impact of CAT and CCQ scores on exacerbation was analyzed by logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Among 121 COPD patients, CAT and CCQ score correlated with other symptom measures, lung function and exercise capacity as well. Compared with patients who did not experience exacerbation, those who experienced exacerbation (n=45; 38.2% exhibited more severe airflow limitation, were more likely to have a history of exacerbation in the year prior to enrollment, and demonstrated higher CAT scores. CCQ scores were not significantly associated with exacerbations. A CAT score of ≥15 was an independent risk factor for exacerbation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.40; 95% CI, 1.03–6.50; P=0.04. Furthermore, CAT scores of ≥15 demonstrated an increased predictive ability for exacerbation compared with currently accepted guidelines for the use of CAT (≥10 and CCQ (≥1 in the assessment of COPD

  6. Additional predictive value of nutritional status in the prognostic assessment of heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Rovere, M T; Maestri, R; Olmetti, F; Paganini, V; Riccardi, G; Riccardi, R; Pinna, G D; Traversi, E

    2017-03-01

    Nutritional status (NS) is not routinely assessed in HF. We sought to evaluate whether NS may be additive to a comprehensive pre-discharge evaluation based on a clinical score that includes BMI (MAGGIC) and on an index of functional capacity (six minute walking test, 6mWT) in HF patients. The CONUT (Controlling Nutritional Status) score (including serum albumin level, total cholesterol and lymphocyte count) was computed in 466 consecutive patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years, NYHA class 2.6 ± 0.6, LVEF 34 ± 11%, BMI 27.2 ± 4.5) who had pre-discharge MAGGIC and 6MWT. The endpoint was all-cause mortality. Mild or moderate undernourishment was present in 54% of patients with no differences across BMI strata. The 12-month event rate was 7.7%. Deceased patients had a more compromised NS (CONUT 2.8 ± 1.5 vs 1.7 ± 1.3, p assessment of NS, significantly improves prediction of 12-month mortality on top of the information provided by clinical evaluation and functional capacity and should be incorporated in the overall assessment of HF patients. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessment of Cell-Cycle Arrest Biomarkers to Predict Early and Delayed Acute Kidney Injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max Bell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To assess urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-2 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7 ([TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7], urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL, and urinary cystatin-C as acute kidney injury predictors (AKI exploring the association of nonrenal factors with elevated biomarker levels. Methods. We studied 94 patients with urine collected within 48 hours of ICU admission and no AKI at sampling. AKI was defined by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Predictive performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC curve. Associations between biomarkers and clinical factors were assessed by multivariate linear regression. Results. Overall, 19 patients (20% developed AKI within 48 hours. [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7], NGAL, or cystatin-C admission levels did not differ between patients without AKI and patients developing AKI. [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7], NGAL, and cystatin-C were poor AKI predictors (ROC areas 0.34–0.51. Diabetes was independently associated with higher [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7] levels (P=0.02 but AKI was not (P=0.24. Sepsis was independently associated with higher NGAL (P<0.001 and cystatin-C (P=0.003 levels. Conclusions. Urinary [TIMP-2]·[IGFBP7], NGAL, and cystatin-C should be used cautiously as AKI predictors in general ICU patients since urine levels of these biomarkers are affected by factors other than AKI and their performance can be poor.

  8. Structure and characteristics of landslide input data and consequences on landslide susceptibility assessment and prediction capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, S. C.; Zezere, J. L.; Garcia, R. A. C.; Piedade, A.

    2009-04-01

    For the territorial planning and management it is of crucial importance the knowledge of the landslide susceptibility, in order to minimize the physical damages and economic losses associated to a certain instability scenario. Resultant mitigation measures can only be effective if we were able to predict where future landslides will occur. In order to improve the quality of data driven landslide susceptibility assessment, recent research developed worldwide as been focused on some fundamental questions: What is the quality of landslide inventories? What is the most appropriate terrain-unit to adopt? What is the most reliable statistical model? What are the best tools to validate results? In contrast, little attention has been given in the literature to the consequences on the landslide susceptibility assessment resulting from the structure and characteristics of the landslide database. Under the assumption that the conditions that led to slope instability in the past are more likely to generate new instability in the future, the statistically-based landslide susceptibility evaluation for a specific area is based on the spatial correlation between a set of independent, predisposing landslide geo-environmental factors, and the distribution of past landslides, which are considered the dependent variable. Landslides are usually included in the susceptibility models as a single point or as a polygon representing the entire unstable area. The selection of the way landslide information enter into prediction models (point vs polygon) is frequently conditioned by software constrains, and surprisingly, the effects of this choice in landslide susceptibility results has not been made. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the quality of susceptibility results obtained for rotational slides in a 12 km2 test site located at north of Lisbon, Portugal considering: (i) the structure and characteristics of landslide input data; (ii) the capacity of different landslide inventories

  9. How does image noise affect actual and predicted human gaze allocation in assessing image quality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röhrbein, Florian; Goddard, Peter; Schneider, Michael; James, Georgina; Guo, Kun

    2015-07-01

    A central research question in natural vision is how to allocate fixation to extract informative cues for scene perception. With high quality images, psychological and computational studies have made significant progress to understand and predict human gaze allocation in scene exploration. However, it is unclear whether these findings can be generalised to degraded naturalistic visual inputs. In this eye-tracking and computational study, we methodically distorted both man-made and natural scenes with Gaussian low-pass filter, circular averaging filter and Additive Gaussian white noise, and monitored participants' gaze behaviour in assessing perceived image qualities. Compared with original high quality images, distorted images attracted fewer numbers of fixations but longer fixation durations, shorter saccade distance and stronger central fixation bias. This impact of image noise manipulation on gaze distribution was mainly determined by noise intensity rather than noise type, and was more pronounced for natural scenes than for man-made scenes. We furthered compared four high performing visual attention models in predicting human gaze allocation in degraded scenes, and found that model performance lacked human-like sensitivity to noise type and intensity, and was considerably worse than human performance measured as inter-observer variance. Furthermore, the central fixation bias is a major predictor for human gaze allocation, which becomes more prominent with increased noise intensity. Our results indicate a crucial role of external noise intensity in determining scene-viewing gaze behaviour, which should be considered in the development of realistic human-vision-inspired attention models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Changes of lung tumour volume on CT - prediction of the reliability of assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumont, Hubert; Souchet, Simon; Labatte, Jean Marc; Iannessi, Antoine; Tolcher, Anthony William

    2015-10-31

    For oncological evaluations, quantitative radiology gives clinicians significant insight into patients' response to therapy. In regard to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST), the classification of disease evolution partly consists in applying thresholds to the measurement of the relative change of tumour. In the case of tumour volumetry, response thresholds have not yet been established. This study proposes and validates a model for calculating thresholds for the detection of minimal tumour change when using the volume of pulmonary lesions on CT as imaging biomarker. Our work is based on the reliability analysis of tumour volume measurements documented by the Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance. Statistics of measurements were entered into a multi-parametric mathematical model of the relative changes derived from the Geary-Hinkley transformation. The consistency of the model was tested by comparing modelled thresholds against Monte Carlo simulations of tumour volume measurements with additive random error. The model has been validated by repeating measurements on real patient follow ups. For unchanged tumour volume, relying on a normal distribution of error, the agreement between model and simulations featured a type I error of 5.25%. Thus, we established that a threshold of 35% of volume reduction corresponds to a partial response (PR) and a 55% volume increase corresponds to progressive disease (PD). Changes between -35 and +55% are categorized as stable disease (SD). Tested on real clinical data, 97.1% [95.7; 98.0] of assessments fall into the range of variability predicted by our model of confidence interval. Our study indicates that the Geary Hinkley model, using published statistics, is appropriate to predict response thresholds for the volume of pulmonary lesions on CT.

  11. Prediction of critical illness in elderly outpatients using elder risk assessment: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biehl M

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Michelle Biehl,1 Paul Y Takahashi,2 Stephen S Cha,3 Rajeev Chaudhry,2 Ognjen Gajic,1 Bjorg Thorsteinsdottir2 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, 2Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, 3Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Rationale: Identifying patients at high risk of critical illness is necessary for the development and testing of strategies to prevent critical illness. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between high elder risk assessment (ERA score and critical illness requiring intensive care and to see if the ERA can be used as a prediction tool to identify elderly patients at the primary care visit who are at high risk of critical illness. Methods: A population-based historical cohort study was conducted in elderly patients (age >65 years identified at the time of primary care visit in Rochester, MN, USA. Predictors including age, previous hospital days, and comorbid health conditions were identified from routine administrative data available in the electronic medical record. The main outcome was critical illness, defined as sepsis, need for mechanical ventilation, or death within 2 years of initial visit. Patients with an ERA score of 16 were considered to be at high risk. The discrimination of the ERA score was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Of the 13,457 eligible patients, 9,872 gave consent for medical record review and had full information on intensive care unit utilization. The mean age was 75.8 years (standard deviation ±7.6 years, and 58% were female, 94% were Caucasian, 62% were married, and 13% were living in nursing homes. In the overall group, 417 patients (4.2% suffered from critical illness. In the 1,134 patients with ERA >16, 154 (14% suffered from critical illness. An ERA score ≥16 predicted critical illness (odds ratio 6.35; 95% confidence interval 3.51–11.48. The area under the

  12. Thin Slice Ratings of Client Characteristics in Intake Assessments: Predicting Symptom Change and Dropout in Cognitive Therapy for Depression

    OpenAIRE

    Sasso, Katherine E.; Strunk, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    Thin slice ratings of personality have been shown to predict a number of outcomes, but have yet to be examined in the context of psychotherapy. In a sample of 66 clients participating in cognitive therapy for depression, we examined the predictive utility of thin slice rated pre-treatment client traits. On the basis of short video clip excerpts (i.e., thin slices) of intake assessments, trained observers rated clients on personality characteristics and specific personality disorder (PD) trait...

  13. Prediction of Driving Ability in People with Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Using the Stroke Driver Screening Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    AKINWUNTAN, Abiodun Emmanuel; O'Connor, Christina; McGonegal, Erin; Turchi, Kristen; Smith, Suzanne; Williams, Mitzi; Wachtel, Jerry

    2012-01-01

    The ability to drive is often affected in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) because of the motor, visual, or cognitive deficits commonly associated with the condition. In this study, we investigated the accuracy with which the Stroke Driver Screening Assessment (SDSA), an established battery for the prediction of driving performance of stroke survivors, would predict driving performance of individuals with MS. Driving performance of 44 individuals with relapsing-remitting MS (mean ± SD...

  14. An Unobtrusive System to Measure, Assess, and Predict Cognitive Workload in Real-World Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracken, Bethany K.; Palmon, Noa; Elkin-Frankston, Seth; Irvin, Scott; Jenkins, Michael; Farry, Mike

    2017-01-01

    Across many careers, individuals face alternating periods of high and low attention and cognitive workload, which can result in impaired cognitive functioning and can be detrimental to job performance. For example, some professions (e.g., fire fighters, emergency medical personnel, doctors and nurses working in an emergency room, pilots) require long periods of low workload (boredom), followed by sudden, high-tempo operations during which they may be required to respond to an emergency and perform at peak cognitive levels. Conversely, other professions (e.g., air traffic controllers, market investors in financial industries, analysts) require long periods of high workload and multitasking during which the addition of just one more task results in cognitive overload resulting in mistakes. An unobtrusive system to measure, assess, and predict cognitive workload could warn individuals, their teammates, or their supervisors when steps should be taken to augment cognitive readiness. In this talk I will describe an approach to this problem that we have found to be successful across work domains including: (1) a suite of unobtrusive, field-ready neurophysiological, physiological, and behavioral sensors that are chosen to best suit the target environment; (2) custom algorithms and statistical techniques to process and time-align raw data originating from the sensor suite; (3) probabilistic and statistical models designed to interpret the data into the human state of interest (e.g., cognitive workload, attention, fatigue); (4) and machine-learning techniques to predict upcoming performance based on the current pattern of events, and (5) display of each piece of information depending on the needs of the target user who may or may not want to drill down into the functioning of the system to determine how conclusions about human state and performance are determined. I will then focus in on our experimental results from our custom functional near-infrared spectroscopy sensor

  15. Thin slice ratings of client characteristics in intake assessments: predicting symptom change and dropout in cognitive therapy for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasso, Katherine E; Strunk, Daniel R

    2013-08-01

    Thin slice ratings of personality have been shown to predict a number of outcomes, but have yet to be examined in the context of psychotherapy. In a sample of 66 clients participating in cognitive therapy for depression, we examined the predictive utility of thin slice rated pre-treatment client traits. On the basis of short video clip excerpts (i.e., thin slices) of intake assessments, trained observers rated clients on personality characteristics and specific personality disorder (PD) traits. Clients' therapy interest and neuroticism predicted lower odds of dropout. Ratings of extraversion predicted greater symptom change across treatment; ratings of clients' Avoidant and Schizoid PD traits predicted less marked symptom improvement. Ratings of agreeableness and likeability also predicted greater symptom change, but these relations were only significant in one of two analytic approaches used. Evidence for the predictive validity of thin slice ratings was generally stronger than that observed for self-reported PD traits and PD status. Moreover, these self-report and diagnostic assessments failed to account for the thin slice-outcome relations identified. Findings support the clinical utility of quick, thin slice impressions of clients, as these ratings could be used to identify clients with a high risk of dropout or poor treatment outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO) complementing the critical assessment of structure prediction in CASP12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jürgen; Barbato, Alessandro; Behringer, Dario; Studer, Gabriel; Roth, Steven; Bertoni, Martino; Mostaguir, Khaled; Gumienny, Rafal; Schwede, Torsten

    2018-03-01

    Every second year, the community experiment "Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction" (CASP) is conducting an independent blind assessment of structure prediction methods, providing a framework for comparing the performance of different approaches and discussing the latest developments in the field. Yet, developers of automated computational modeling methods clearly benefit from more frequent evaluations based on larger sets of data. The "Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)" platform complements the CASP experiment by conducting fully automated blind prediction assessments based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the PDB Protein Data Bank. CAMEO publishes weekly benchmarking results based on models collected during a 4-day prediction window, on average assessing ca. 100 targets during a time frame of 5 weeks. CAMEO benchmarking data is generated consistently for all participating methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to benchmark and cross-validate their method's performance, and directly refer to the benchmarking results in publications. In order to facilitate server development and promote shorter release cycles, CAMEO sends weekly email with submission statistics and low performance warnings. Many participants of CASP have successfully employed CAMEO when preparing their methods for upcoming community experiments. CAMEO offers a variety of scores to allow benchmarking diverse aspects of structure prediction methods. By introducing new scoring schemes, CAMEO facilitates new development in areas of active research, for example, modeling quaternary structure, complexes, or ligand binding sites. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  18. [Perspective of predictive toxicity assessment of in vivo repeated dose toxicity using structural activity relationship].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Atsushi

    2010-01-01

    Tens of thousands of existing chemicals have been widely used for manufacture, agriculture, household and other purposes in worldwide. Only approximately 10% of chemicals have been assessed for human health hazard. The health hazard assessment of residual large number of chemicals for which little or no information of their toxicity is available is urgently needed for public health. However, the conduct of traditional toxicity tests which involves using animals for all of these chemicals would be economically impractical and ethically unacceptable. (Quantitative) Structure-Activity Relationships [(Q)SARs] are expected as method to have the potential to estimate hazards of chemicals from their structure, while reducing time, cost and animal testing currently needed. Therefore, our studies have been focused on evaluation of available (Q)SAR systems for estimating in vivo repeated toxicity on the liver. The results from our preliminary analysis showed the distribution for LogP of the chemicals which have potential to induce liver toxicity was bell-shape and indicating the possibility to estimate liver toxicity of chemicals from their physicochemical property. We have developed (Q)SAR models to in vivo liver toxicity using three commercially available systems (DEREK, ADMEWorks and MultiCASE) as well as combinatorial use of publically available chemoinformatic tools (CDK, MOSS and WEKA). Distinct data-sets of the 28-day repeated dose toxicity test of new and existing chemicals evaluated in Japan were used for model development and performance test. The results that concordances of commercial systems and public tools were almost same which below 70% may suggest currently attainable knowledge of in silico estimation of complex biological process, though it possible to obtain complementary and enhanced performance by combining predictions from different programs. In future, the combinatorial application of in silico and in vitro tests might provide more accurate

  19. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  20. Assessing fit of alternative unidimensional polytomous IRT models using posterior predictive model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tongyun; Xie, Chao; Jiao, Hong

    2017-06-01

    This article explored the application of the posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) method in assessing fit for unidimensional polytomous item response theory (IRT) models, specifically the divide-by-total models (e.g., the generalized partial credit model). Previous research has primarily focused on using PPMC in model checking for unidimensional and multidimensional IRT models for dichotomous data, and has paid little attention to polytomous models. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to investigate the performance of PPMC in detecting different sources of misfit for the partial credit model family. Results showed that the PPMC method, in combination with appropriate discrepancy measures, had adequate power in detecting different sources of misfit for the partial credit model family. Global odds ratio and item total correlation exhibited specific patterns in detecting the absence of the slope parameter, whereas Yen's Q1 was found to be promising in the detection of misfit caused by the constant category intersection parameter constraint across items. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Mechanistic assessment of peptide reactivity assay to predict skin allergens with Kathon CG isothiazolinones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutschler, Julien; Giménez-Arnau, Elena; Foertsch, Leslie; Gerberick, G Frank; Lepoittevin, Jean-Pierre

    2009-04-01

    Assessment of skin sensitization hazard of chemicals currently depends on in vivo methods. Considering the forthcoming European Union ban on in vivo testing of cosmetic/toiletry ingredients, the search for alternative non-animal approaches is an urgent challenge for investigators today. For the skin sensitization end-point the concept of protein/peptide haptenation, that could reflect the chemical modification of skin proteins, crucial to form immunogenic structures, has been used to develop in vitro assays to predict the sensitization potential of new chemicals. Using glutathione and nucleophile-containing synthetic peptides we confirmed previously the possibility to screen for skin sensitization potential by measuring peptide depletion following incubation with a set of allergens and non-allergens. In this paper, additionally to our model development work, we performed mechanistic based studies to confirm the peptide reactivity concept under the specific conditions used for haptens in the screening assay as they were somewhat different from the ones expected to happen in vivo. Following the reactivity toward the peptides of 13C labelled MI and MCI, models of true haptens, we showed that the initial step leading to the biological end-point was similar regardless the conditions used even if final adducts could be different. This confirmed the validity of the peptide reactivity concept as well as the choice made to look at peptide depletion rather than at adduct formation.

  2. Preliminary assessment of a model to predict mold contamination based on microbial volatile organic compound profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBouf, Ryan F; Schuckers, Stephanie A; Rossner, Alan

    2010-08-01

    Identification of mold growth based on microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOCs) may be a viable alternative to current bioaerosol assessment methodologies. A feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to correlate MVOCs with bioaerosol levels in built environments. A cross-validation MATLAB script was developed to train the ANN and produce model results. Entech Bottle-Vacs were used to collect chemical grab samples at 10 locations in northern NY during 17 sampling periods from July 2006 to August 2007. Bioaerosol samples were collected concurrently with chemical samples. An Anderson N6 impactor was used in conjunction with malt extract agar and dichloran glycerol 18 to collect viable mold samples. Non-viable samples were collected with Air-O-Cell cassettes. Chemical samples and bioaerosol samples were used as model inputs and model targets, respectively. Previous researchers have suggested the use of MVOCs as indicators of mold growth without the use of a pattern recognition program limiting their success. The current proposed strategy implements a pattern recognition program making it instrumental for field applications. This paper demonstrates that FFBP ANN may be used in conjunction with chemical sampling in built environments to predict the presence of mold growth. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Optical Spectroscopy Approach for the Predictive Assessment of Kidney Functional Recovery Following Ischemic Injury

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raman, R N; Pivetti, C D; Rubenchik, A M; Matthews, D L; Troppmann, C; Demos, S G

    2010-02-11

    Tissue that has undergone significant yet unknown amount of ischemic injury is frequently encountered in organ transplantation and trauma clinics. With no reliable real-time method of assessing the degree of injury incurred in tissue, surgeons generally rely on visual observation which is subjective. In this work, we investigate the use of optical spectroscopy methods as a potentially more reliable approach. Previous work by various groups was strongly suggestive that tissue autofluorescence from NADH obtained under UV excitation is sensitive to metabolic response changes. To test and expand upon this concept, we monitored autofluorescence and light scattering intensities of injured vs. uninjured rat kidneys via multimodal imaging under 355 nm, 325 nm, and 266 nm excitation as well as scattering under 500 nm illumination. 355 nm excitation was used to probe mainly NADH, a metabolite, while 266 nm excitation was used to probe mainly tryptophan to correct for non-metabolic signal artifacts. The ratio of autofluorescence intensities derived under these two excitation wavelengths was calculated and its temporal profile was fit to a relaxation model. Time constants were extracted, and longer time constants were associated with kidney dysfunction. Analysis of both the autofluorescence and light scattering images suggests that changes in microstructure tissue morphology, blood absorption spectral characteristics, and pH contribute to the behavior of the observed signal which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer predictive capability.

  4. Importance of environmental and biomass dynamics in predicting chemical exposure in ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morselli, Melissa; Semplice, Matteo; De Laender, Frederik; Van den Brink, Paul J; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2015-09-01

    In ecological risk assessment, exposure is generally modelled assuming static conditions, herewith neglecting the potential role of emission, environmental and biomass dynamics in affecting bioavailable concentrations. In order to investigate the influence of such dynamics on predicted bioavailable concentrations, the spatially-resolved dynamic model "ChimERA fate" was developed, incorporating macrophyte and particulate/dissolved organic carbon (POC/DOC) dynamics into a water-sediment system. An evaluation against three case studies revealed a satisfying model performance. Illustrative simulations then highlighted the potential spatio-temporal variability of bioavailable concentrations after a pulsed emission of four chemicals in a system composed of a pond connected to its inflow and outflow streams. Changes in macrophyte biomass and POC/DOC levels caused exposure variations which were up to a factor of 4.5 in time and even more significant (several orders of magnitude) in space, especially for highly hydrophobic chemicals. ChimERA fate thus revealed to be a useful tool to investigate such variations and to identify those environmental and ecological conditions in which risk is expected to be highest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. The Importance of Prediction Model Validation and Assessment in Obesity and Nutrition Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanescu, Andrada E.; Li, Peng; George, Brandon; Brown, Andrew W.; Keith, Scott W.; Raju, Dheeraj; Allison, David B.

    2015-01-01

    Deriving statistical models to predict one variable from one or more other variables, or predictive modeling, is an important activity in obesity and nutrition research. To determine the quality of the model, it is necessary to quantify and report the predictive validity of the derived models. Conducting validation of the predictive measures provides essential information to the research community about the model. Unfortunately, many articles fail to account for the nearly inevitable reduction in predictive ability that occurs when a model derived on one dataset is applied to a new dataset. Under some circumstances, the predictive validity can be reduced to nearly zero. In this overview, we explain why reductions in predictive validity occur, define the metrics commonly used to estimate the predictive validity of a model (e.g., R2, mean squared error, sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic, concordance index), and describe methods to estimate the predictive validity (e.g., cross-validation, bootstrap, adjusted and shrunken R2). We emphasize that methods for estimating the expected reduction in predictive ability of a model in new samples are available and this expected reduction should always be reported when new predictive models are introduced. PMID:26449421

  6. Predicting Smoking Lapses in the First Week of Quitting: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolman, Catherine; Verboon, Peter; Thewissen, Vivianne; Boonen, Viviane; Soons, Karin; Jacobs, Nele

    2017-10-24

    This study focused on lapse shortly after an attempt to quit smoking. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies have mapped real-time situational factors that induce lapses in everyday life. However, the possible role of nonsmoking intention is disregarded in the dynamic context of daily life, whereas intention plays a key role in behavior change and shifts during smoking cessation. This study therefore aimed to capture the influence of intention on lapse, next to the known risk factors of negative affect, low self-efficacy, craving, positive outcome expectations towards smoking (POEs), being around smokers, and stress. It is hypothesized that scores on these factors shift during the day, especially shortly after quitting, which may induce lapse. Based on behavioral explanation models, intention is hypothesized to mediate the influence of the mentioned factors on lapse. An EMA study was conducted among 49 self-quitters in the first week of smoking cessation. Generalized Linear Mixed Model regression analyses revealed that low nonsmoking intentions, low self-efficacy, and being around smokers (estimates were, respectively, -0.303, -0.331, and 2.083) predicted lapse. Nonsmoking intention partially mediated the influence of self-efficacy on lapse. Nonsmoking intention was predicted by not being around smokers, high self-efficacy, and low POEs (estimates were, respectively, -0.353, 0.293, and -0.072). This small-scale EMA study confirms the importance of nonsmoking intention on lapse, next to self-efficacy and being around smokers. It adds insights into the mediating role of intention on the relationship between self-efficacy and lapse, and into the predictors of nonsmoking intention.This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used

  7. Verification Benchmarks to Assess the Implementation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Based Hemolysis Prediction Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin; Horner, Marc; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R

    2015-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to develop verification and validation (V&V) standards for using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in the evaluation of medical devices, we have developed idealized flow-based verification benchmarks to assess the implementation of commonly cited power-law based hemolysis models in CFD. Verification process ensures that all governing equations are solved correctly and the model is free of user and numerical errors. To perform verification for power-law based hemolysis modeling, analytical solutions for the Eulerian power-law blood damage model (which estimates hemolysis index (HI) as a function of shear stress and exposure time) were obtained for Couette and inclined Couette flow models, and for Newtonian and non-Newtonian pipe flow models. Subsequently, CFD simulations of fluid flow and HI were performed using Eulerian and three different Lagrangian-based hemolysis models and compared with the analytical solutions. For all the geometries, the blood damage results from the Eulerian-based CFD simulations matched the Eulerian analytical solutions within ∼1%, which indicates successful implementation of the Eulerian hemolysis model. Agreement between the Lagrangian and Eulerian models depended upon the choice of the hemolysis power-law constants. For the commonly used values of power-law constants (α  = 1.9-2.42 and β  = 0.65-0.80), in the absence of flow acceleration, most of the Lagrangian models matched the Eulerian results within 5%. In the presence of flow acceleration (inclined Couette flow), moderate differences (∼10%) were observed between the Lagrangian and Eulerian models. This difference increased to greater than 100% as the beta exponent decreased. These simplified flow problems can be used as standard benchmarks for verifying the implementation of blood damage predictive models in commercial and open-source CFD codes. The current study only used power-law model as an illustrative example to emphasize the need

  8. A Rat α-Fetoprotein Binding Activity Prediction Model to Facilitate Assessment of the Endocrine Disruption Potential of Environmental Chemicals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huixiao Hong

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Endocrine disruptors such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs, diethylstilbestrol (DES and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT are agents that interfere with the endocrine system and cause adverse health effects. Huge public health concern about endocrine disruptors has arisen. One of the mechanisms of endocrine disruption is through binding of endocrine disruptors with the hormone receptors in the target cells. Entrance of endocrine disruptors into target cells is the precondition of endocrine disruption. The binding capability of a chemical with proteins in the blood affects its entrance into the target cells and, thus, is very informative for the assessment of potential endocrine disruption of chemicals. α-fetoprotein is one of the major serum proteins that binds to a variety of chemicals such as estrogens. To better facilitate assessment of endocrine disruption of environmental chemicals, we developed a model for α-fetoprotein binding activity prediction using the novel pattern recognition method (Decision Forest and the molecular descriptors calculated from two-dimensional structures by Mold2 software. The predictive capability of the model has been evaluated through internal validation using 125 training chemicals (average balanced accuracy of 69% and external validations using 22 chemicals (balanced accuracy of 71%. Prediction confidence analysis revealed the model performed much better at high prediction confidence. Our results indicate that the model is useful (when predictions are in high confidence in endocrine disruption risk assessment of environmental chemicals though improvement by increasing number of training chemicals is needed.

  9. Measuring fall risk and predicting who will fall: clinimetric properties of four fall risk assessment tools for residential aged care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barker, Anna L; Nitz, Jennifer C; Low Choy, Nancy L; Haines, Terry

    2009-08-01

    The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to describe the clinimetric evaluation of four fall risk assessment tools (FRATs) recommended in best practice guidelines for use in residential aged care (RAC). Eighty-seven residents, mean age 81.59 years (SD +/-10.69), participated. The Falls Assessment Risk and Management Tool (FARAM), Peninsula Health Fall Risk Assessment Tool (PHFRAT), Queensland Fall Risk Assessment Tool (QFRAT), and Melbourne Fall Risk Assessment Tool (MFRAT) were completed at baseline, and 2 and 4 months, and falls occurring in the 6 months after the baseline assessment were recorded. Interrater agreement (kappa), predictive accuracy (survival analysis and Youden Index), and fit to the Rasch model were examined. Twelve-month fall history formed the predictive accuracy reference. Interrater risk classification agreement was high for the PHFRAT (small ka, Cyrillic = .84) and FARAM (small ka, Cyrillic = .81), and low for the QFRAT (small ka, Cyrillic = .51) and MFRAT (small ka, Cyrillic = .21). Survival analysis identified that 43%-66% of risk factors on each tool had no (p > .10) association with falls. No tool had higher predictive accuracy (Youden index) than the question, "has the resident fallen in past 12 months?" (p > .05). All tools did not exhibit fit to the Rasch model, invalidating summing of risk factor scores to provide an overall risk score. The studied tools have poor clinimetric properties, casting doubt about their usefulness for identifying fall risk factors for those most at risk for falling and measuring fall risk in RAC.

  10. Memory assessment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy to predict memory impairment after surgery: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra-Díaz, P; García-Casares, N

    2017-04-19

    Given that surgical treatment of refractory mesial temporal lobe epilepsy may cause memory impairment, determining which patients are eligible for surgery is essential. However, there is little agreement on which presurgical memory assessment methods are best able to predict memory outcome after surgery and identify those patients with a greater risk of surgery-induced memory decline. We conducted a systematic literature review to determine which presurgical memory assessment methods best predict memory outcome. The literature search of PubMed gathered articles published between January 2005 and December 2015 addressing pre- and postsurgical memory assessment in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy patients by means of neuropsychological testing, functional MRI, and other neuroimaging techniques. We obtained 178 articles, 31 of which were included in our review. Most of the studies used neuropsychological tests and fMRI; these methods are considered to have the greatest predictive ability for memory impairment. Other less frequently used techniques included the Wada test and FDG-PET. Current evidence supports performing a presurgical assessment of memory function using both neuropsychological tests and functional MRI to predict memory outcome after surgery. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessment of the prediction error in a large-scale application of a dynamic soil acidification model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kros, J.; Mol-Dijkstra, J.P.; Pebesma, E.J.

    2002-01-01

    The prediction error of a relatively simple soil acidification model (SMART2) was assessed before and after calibration, focussing on the aluminium and nitrate concentrations on a block scale. Although SMART2 is especially developed for application ona national to European scale, it still runs at a

  12. Examining the Predictive Validity of a Dynamic Assessment of Decoding to Forecast Response to Tier 2 Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Eunsoo; Compton, Donald L.; Fuchs, Douglas; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Bouton, Bobette

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the role of a dynamic assessment (DA) of decoding in predicting responsiveness to Tier 2 small-group tutoring in a response-to-intervention model. First grade students (n = 134) who did not show adequate progress in Tier 1 based on 6 weeks of progress monitoring received Tier 2 small-group tutoring in…

  13. Predictive Power of School Based Assessment Scores on Students' Achievement in Junior Secondary Certificate Examination (JSCE) in English and Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opara, Ijeoma M.; Onyekuru, Bruno U.; Njoku, Joyce U.

    2015-01-01

    The study investigated the predictive power of school based assessment scores on students' achievement in Junior Secondary Certificate Examination (JSCE) in English and Mathematics. Two hypotheses tested at 0.05 level of significance guided the study. The study adopted an ex-post facto research design. A sample of 250 students were randomly drawn…

  14. A Multimethod Assessment of Juvenile Psychopathy: Comparing the Predictive Utility of the PCL:YV, YPI, and NEO PRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauffman, Elizabeth; Kimonis, Eva R.; Dmitrieva, Julia; Monahan, Kathryn C.

    2009-01-01

    The current study compares 3 distinct approaches for measuring juvenile psychopathy and their utility for predicting short- and long-term recidivism among a sample of 1,170 serious male juvenile offenders. The assessment approaches compared a clinical interview method (the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Forth, Kosson, & Hare,…

  15. Does the Teacher Beat the Test? The Value of the Teacher’s Assessment in Predicting Student Ability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feron, E.; Schils, T.; ter Weel, B.

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates to what extent the subjective teacher’s assessment of children’s ability predicts children’s outcomes in the transition from primary to secondary school in terms of initial track allocation, track switching in the first three years of secondary education and subsequent

  16. Hospitalization for community-acquired febrile urinary tract infection: Validation and impact assessment of a clinical prediction rule

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stalenhoef, J.E. (Janneke E.); van der Starre, W.E. (Willize E.); A. Vollaard (Albert); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); Delfos, N.M. (Nathalie M.); E.M.S. Leyten (Eliane M. S.); Koster, T. (Ted); Ablij, H.C. (Hans C.); J.W. van 't Wout (Jan ); J.T. van Dissel (Jaap); C. van Nieuwkoop (Cees)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: There is a lack of severity assessment tools to identify adults presenting with febrile urinary tract infection (FUTI) at risk for complicated outcome and guide admission policy. We aimed to validate the Prediction Rule for Admission policy in Complicated urinary Tract

  17. Should clinicians use average or peak scores on a dynamic risk-assessment measure to most accurately predict inpatient aggression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Daffern, Michael; Ogloff, James R P

    2013-12-01

    Recent advancements in risk assessment have led to the development of dynamic risk-assessment measures that are predictive of inpatient aggression in the short term. However, there are several areas within this field that warrant further empirical investigation, including whether the average, maximum, or most recent risk state assessment is the most valid for predicting subsequent aggression in the medium term. This prospective study compared the predictive validity of three indices (i.e. mean score, peak score, and most recent single time-point rating) of the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression (DASA) for inpatient aggression. Daily risk ratings were completed for 60 psychiatric inpatients (from the acute wards of a forensic psychiatric hospital) for up to 6 months; a total of 1054 DASA ratings were obtained. Results showed that mean and peak scores on the DASA were better predictors of interpersonal violence, verbal threat, and any inpatient aggression than the DASA single time-point most recent ratings. Overall, the results support the use of the prior week's mean and peak scores to aid the prediction of inpatient aggression within inpatient forensic psychiatric settings in the short to medium term. These results also have practical implications for clinicians considering risk-management strategies and the scoring of clinically-relevant items on risk-assessment measures. © 2012 The Authors; International Journal of Mental Health Nursing © 2012 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  18. The predictive value of measures of social cognition for community functioning in schizophrenia : Implications for neuropsychological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijnenborg, G.H M; Withaar, F.K.; Evans, J.J; van den Bosch, R.J.; Timmerman, M.E.; Brouwer, W.H.

    The objective of this study was to examine the unique contribution of social cognition to the prediction of community functioning and to explore the relevance of social cognition for clinical practice. Forty-six schizophrenia patients and 53 healthy controls were assessed with tests of social

  19. Nursing intuition as an assessment tool in predicting severity of injury in trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cork, Lora L

    2014-01-01

    Emergency nurses assess patients using objective and subjective data. When the charge nurse takes report from a paramedic, another form of assessment occurs. By eliciting apt data and using trauma-scoring criteria, a decision to enact a "trauma code" occurs. Considering the cost and staff utilization, it is important for the charge nurse to make sound decisions when activating a trauma code. The objective of this study is to explore the validity of nurses' use of intuition in patients to predict the severity of their injuries, and whether it impacts their choice to institute a trauma code.The study design was a descriptive, quantitative, cross-sectional record review and cohort analysis. The setting was a rural Trauma Level III emergency department (ED) located 80 miles from the nearest Level I trauma center. Phase I was a convenience cluster sample of all charge nurses in an ED. Phase II was a collection of all trauma records from June 2010 to May 2012. The inclusion criterion for Phase I subjects was that all participants were currently working as ED charge nurses. Analysis for Phase I data consisted of evaluating demographic information provided in questions 1 through 6 in a questionnaire. For Phase II data, a power analysis using Cohen's d was performed to determine the sample size to be evaluated. On the basis of the 2012 trauma data, a total of 419 records needed to be assessed (confidence interval, 0.164; P nurses responded. Results showed an average of greater than 10 years of experience as an ED registered nurse, certification was equally yes and no, and highest level of education was at the BSN level. Phase II consisted of a review of 393 eligible medical files during the specified period. Because of the lack of sufficient data, 33 records were excluded. A total of 360 files remained with 109 in the "gut instinct" and 251 in the "other" category. A t test was performed using a 2-tailed test with an α value of .05. Results were a t-score of 0.02, and the

  20. Wind Resource Assessment in Complex Terrain with a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Karin; Serafin, Stefano; Grubišić, Vanda; Dorninger, Manfred; Zauner, Rudolf; Fink, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A crucial step in planning new wind farms is the estimation of the amount of wind energy that can be harvested in possible target sites. Wind resource assessment traditionally entails deployment of masts equipped for wind speed measurements at several heights for a reasonably long period of time. Simplified linear models of atmospheric flow are then used for a spatial extrapolation of point measurements to a wide area. While linear models have been successfully applied in the wind resource assessment in plains and offshore, their reliability in complex terrain is generally poor. This represents a major limitation to wind resource assessment in Austria, where high-altitude locations are being considered for new plant sites, given the higher frequency of sustained winds at such sites. The limitations of linear models stem from two key assumptions in their formulation, the neutral stratification and attached boundary-layer flow, both of which often break down in complex terrain. Consequently, an accurate modeling of near-surface flow over mountains requires the adoption of a NWP model with high horizontal and vertical resolution. This study explores the wind potential of a site in Styria in the North-Eastern Alps. The WRF model is used for simulations with a maximum horizontal resolution of 800 m. Three nested computational domains are defined, with the innermost one encompassing a stretch of the relatively broad Enns Valley, flanked by the main crest of the Alps in the south and the Nördliche Kalkalpen of similar height in the north. In addition to the simulation results, we use data from fourteen 10-m wind measurement sites (of which 7 are located within valleys and 5 near mountain tops) and from 2 masts with anemometers at several heights (at hillside locations) in an area of 1600 km2 around the target site. The potential for wind energy production is assessed using the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height. The capacity factor is also evaluated

  1. Predictive validity of the post-enrolment English language assessment tool for commencing undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glew, Paul J; Hillege, Sharon P; Salamonson, Yenna; Dixon, Kathleen; Good, Anthony; Lombardo, Lien

    2015-12-01

    Nursing students with English as an additional language (EAL) may underperform academically. The post-enrolment English language assessment (PELA) is used in literacy support, but its predictive validity in identifying those at risk of underperformance remains unknown. To validate a PELA, as a predictor of academic performance. Prospective survey design. The study was conducted at a university located in culturally and linguistically diverse areas of western Sydney, Australia. Commencing undergraduate nursing students who were Australian-born (n=1323, 49.6%) and born outside of Australia (n=1346, 50.4%) were recruited for this study. The 2669 (67% of 3957) participants provided consent and completed a first year nursing unit that focussed on developing literacy skills. Between 2010 and 2013, commencing students completed the PELA and English language acculturation scale (ELAS), a previously validated instrument. The grading levels of the PELA tool were: Level 1 (proficient), Level 2 (borderline), and Level 3 (poor, and requiring additional support). Participants with a PELA Level 2 or 3 were more likely to be: a) non-Australian-born (χ(2): 520.6, df: 2, planguage other than English at home (χ(2): 490.2, df: 2, passessment (χ(2): 40.2, df: 2, p<0.001); ii) final unit mark (χ(2): 218.6, df: 2, p<0.001), and attain a higher GPA (χ(2): 100.8, df: 2, p<0.001). The PELA is a useful screening tool in identifying commencing nursing students who are at risk of academic underachievement. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Moving the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability to a Distributed, Portable Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, RW

    2002-09-05

    The Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) has been re-engineered from a Windows application with tight binding between computation and a graphical user interface (GUI) to a new distributed object architecture. The key goals of this new architecture are platform portability, extensibility, deployment flexibility, client-server operations, easy integration with other systems, and support for a new map-based GUI. Selection of Java as the development and runtime environment is the major factor in achieving each of the goals, platform portability in particular. Portability is further enforced by allowing only Java components in the client. Extensibility is achieved via Java's dynamic binding and class loading capabilities and a design by interface approach. HPAC supports deployment on a standalone host, as a heavy client in client-server mode with data stored on the client but calculations performed on the server host, and as a thin client with data and calculations on the server host. The principle architectural element supporting deployment flexibility is the use of Universal Resource Locators (URLs) for all file references. Java WebStart{trademark} is used for thin client deployment. Although there were many choices for the object distribution mechanism, the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) was chosen to support HPAC client server operation. HPAC complies with version 2.0 of the CORBA standard and does not assume support for pass-by-value method arguments. Execution in standalone mode is expedited by having most server objects run in the same process as client objects, thereby bypassing CORBA object transport. HPAC provides four levels for access by other tools and systems, starting with a Windows library providing transport and dispersion (T&D) calculations and output generation, detailed and more abstract sets of CORBA services, and reusable Java components.

  3. Prediction of driving ability in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis using the stroke driver screening assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinwuntan, Abiodun Emmanuel; O'Connor, Christina; McGonegal, Erin; Turchi, Kristen; Smith, Suzanne; Williams, Mitzi; Wachtel, Jerry

    2012-01-01

    The ability to drive is often affected in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) because of the motor, visual, or cognitive deficits commonly associated with the condition. In this study, we investigated the accuracy with which the Stroke Driver Screening Assessment (SDSA), an established battery for the prediction of driving performance of stroke survivors, would predict driving performance of individuals with MS. Driving performance of 44 individuals with relapsing-remitting MS (mean ± SD age, 46 ± 11 years; 37 females and 7 males) who were currently driving at least once a month was predicted using their performance on the SDSA. Outcomes of a road test and the Useful Field of View (UFOV) test were used as measures of driving ability. Participants' performance on both the road and UFOV tests was predicted with more than 80% accuracy. The SDSA was more accurate in predicting who would pass the two tests than who would fail the tests. The SDSA battery appears to be a good predictor of driving performance of individuals with relapsing-remitting MS, especially those who have sufficient cognitive skills to continue driving. Larger studies are needed to definitively establish its predictive accuracy and confirm the validity of the predictions.

  4. First investigations to refine video-based IR thermography as a non-invasive tool to monitor the body temperature of calves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, G; Schmidt, M; Ammon, C

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a video-based infrared camera (IRC) was investigated as a tool to monitor the body temperature of calves. Body surface temperatures were measured contactless using videos from an IRC fixed at a certain location in the calf feeder. The body surface temperatures were analysed retrospectively at three larger areas: the head area (in front of the forehead), the body area (behind forehead) and the area of the entire animal. The rectal temperature served as a reference temperature and was measured with a digital thermometer at the corresponding time point. A total of nine calves (Holstein-Friesians, 8 to 35 weeks old) were examined. The average maximum temperatures of the area of the entire animal (mean±SD: 37.66±0.90°C) and the head area (37.64±0.86°C) were always higher than that of the body area (36.75±1.06°C). The temperatures of the head area and of the entire animal were very similar. However, the maximum temperatures as measured using IRC increased with an increase in calf rectal temperature. The maximum temperatures of each video picture for the entire visible body area of the calves appeared to be sufficient to measure the superficial body temperature. The advantage of the video-based IRC over conventional IR single-picture cameras is that more than one picture per animal can be analysed in a short period of time. This technique provides more data for analysis. Thus, this system shows potential as an indicator for continuous temperature measurements in calves.

  5. Mini nutritional assessment as a useful method of predicting the development of pressure ulcers in elderly inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yatabe, Midori S; Taguchi, Fumie; Ishida, Izumi; Sato, Atsuko; Kameda, Toshio; Ueno, Shuichi; Takano, Kozue; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi; Sanada, Hironobu; Yatabe, Junichi

    2013-10-01

    To determine the usefulness of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and plasma amino acid analysis in predicting the formation of pressure ulcers (PUs) in inpatients. Prospective, observational cohort study with a mean observation period of 62.2 ± 86.4 days. Intermediate and acute care wards of a hospital in rural Japan. Inpatients with an average age of 85.0 ± 7.6 (N = 422). Mini Nutritional Assessment, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Braden Scale (PU prognostic score), PU formation, and biochemical analysis including plasma amino acid concentrations. PUs developed in 7.1% of participants. A MNA score of less than 8 was more sensitive than a rating of moderate or severe malnourishment on the SGA combined with a Braden Scale score of less than 15 in predicting future PUs. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the MNA was superior to that of the Braden Scale. The Braden Scale nutrition subscore had the lowest AUC of the six Braden Scale subscores. Individuals who developed PUs had significantly lower plasma arginine concentrations than those who did not. Mini Nutritional Assessment was able to predict the development of PUs. A MNA score of less than 8 performed better than the SGA, Braden Scale, and plasma arginine levels in predicting PU development. Although lower plasma arginine concentration at time of admission was associated with PU development, the AUC for arginine was not significantly different from 0.50. The findings from this prospective study support the use of nutritional assessment in inpatients to predict PU risk and target appropriate interventions. © 2013, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2013, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Using Admission Assessments to Predict Final Grades in a College Music Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Andreas C.

    2014-01-01

    Entrance examinations and auditions are common admission procedures for college music programs, yet few researchers have attempted to look at the long-term predictive validity of such selection processes. In this study, archival data from 93 student records of a German music academy were used to predict development of musicianship skills over the…

  7. Intraoperative assessment of microperfusion with visible light spectroscopy for prediction of anastomotic leakage in colorectal anastomoses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karliczek, A.; Benaron, D. A.; Baas, P. C.; Zeebregts, C. J.; Wiggers, T.; van Dam, G. M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose Anastomotic leakage is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, there is no accurate tool to predict its occurrence. We evaluated the predictive value of visible light spectroscopy (VLS), a novel method to measure tissue oxygenation [saturated O(2) (StO(2))], for

  8. Combining turbulent kinetic energy and Haines Index predictions for fire-weather assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

    2007-01-01

    The 24- to 72-hour fire-weather predictions for different regions of the United States are now readily available from the regional Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS) that were established as part of the U.S. National Fire Plan. These predictions are based on daily real-time MM5 model simulations of atmospheric conditions and fire-...

  9. Nurses' Assessment of Rehabilitation Potential and Prediction of Functional Status at Discharge from Inpatient Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jamie S.; Grigsby, Jim; Teel, Cynthia S.; Kramer, Andrew M.

    2009-01-01

    The goals of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of nurses' predictions of rehabilitation potential in older adults admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities and to ascertain whether the addition of a measure of executive cognitive function would enhance predictive accuracy. Secondary analysis was performed on prospective data collected…

  10. A Crowdsourcing Approach to Developing and Assessing Prediction Algorithms for AML Prognosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noren, David P; Long, Byron L; Norel, Raquel; Rrhissorrakrai, Kahn; Hess, Kenneth; Hu, Chenyue Wendy; Bisberg, Alex J; Schultz, Andre; Engquist, Erik; Liu, Li; Lin, Xihui; Chen, Gregory M; Xie, Honglei; Hunter, Geoffrey A M; Boutros, Paul C; Stepanov, Oleg; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen H; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Kornblau, Steven; Qutub, Amina A

    2016-06-01

    Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) is a fatal hematological cancer. The genetic abnormalities underlying AML are extremely heterogeneous among patients, making prognosis and treatment selection very difficult. While clinical proteomics data has the potential to improve prognosis accuracy, thus far, the quantitative means to do so have yet to be developed. Here we report the results and insights gained from the DREAM 9 Acute Myeloid Prediction Outcome Prediction Challenge (AML-OPC), a crowdsourcing effort designed to promote the development of quantitative methods for AML prognosis prediction. We identify the most accurate and robust models in predicting patient response to therapy, remission duration, and overall survival. We further investigate patient response to therapy, a clinically actionable prediction, and find that patients that are classified as resistant to therapy are harder to predict than responsive patients across the 31 models submitted to the challenge. The top two performing models, which held a high sensitivity to these patients, substantially utilized the proteomics data to make predictions. Using these models, we also identify which signaling proteins were useful in predicting patient therapeutic response.

  11. Assessment of Predictive Markers of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Breast Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mallika Tewari

    2010-10-01

    Conclusion: Of all parameters examined, only the apoptosis-related genes (Bcl-2 and BAX seemed to exert some influence on the response to NACT, and neither by itself was sufficient to predict pCR; however, 50 patients is not sufficient to simultaneously analyse several predictive markers.

  12. World health organization disability assessment schedule 2.0 as an objective assessment tool for predicting return to work after a stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shih-Wei; Chi, Wen-Chou; Chang, Kwang-Hwa; Yen, Chia-Feng; Liao, Hua-Fang; Escorpizo, Reuben; Liou, Tsan-Hon

    2017-06-28

    To analyze whether World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 can be used as an objective assessment tool for predicting the return-to-work status of working-age patients with stroke. We obtained the data on 2963 patients disabled by stroke (age Bank of Persons with Disability for the July 2012-January 2014 period. Of these patients, 119 could return to work, whereas 2844 could not. Demographic data and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 standardized scores of patients with stroke who could return to work and those who could not (return to work and nonreturn-to-work groups, respectively) were analyzed and compared using the chi-squared and independent Student's t-tests. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to investigate the prediction accuracy for the return-to-work status, and the optimal cutoff point was determined using the Youden index. Binary logistic regression was employed to determine the predictors of the return-to-work status of patients with stroke. The World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 scores in all domains were lower in the return-to-work group than in the nonreturn-to-work group. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed moderate accuracy for all domain-specific scores [area under the curve, 0.6-0.8] and good accuracy for the summary scores of World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (area under the curve, >0.8). Binary logistic regression revealed that younger age, less severe stroke and standardized World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 summary scores below the cutoff points were predictors of the return to work status of working-age patients disabled by stroke. World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 can be used as an objective assessment tool for predicting the return-to-work status of working-age patients disabled by stroke. This tool can aid in establishing rehabilitation

  13. Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman

    2017-11-24

    To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.

  14. Social justice in education: how the function of selection in educational institutions predicts support for (non)egalitarian assessment practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autin, Frédérique; Batruch, Anatolia; Butera, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    Educational institutions are considered a keystone for the establishment of a meritocratic society. They supposedly serve two functions: an educational function that promotes learning for all, and a selection function that sorts individuals into different programs, and ultimately social positions, based on individual merit. We study how the function of selection relates to support for assessment practices known to harm vs. benefit lower status students, through the perceived justice principles underlying these practices. We study two assessment practices: normative assessment-focused on ranking and social comparison, known to hinder the success of lower status students-and formative assessment-focused on learning and improvement, known to benefit lower status students. Normative assessment is usually perceived as relying on an equity principle, with rewards being allocated based on merit and should thus appear as positively associated with the function of selection. Formative assessment is usually perceived as relying on corrective justice that aims to ensure equality of outcomes by considering students' needs, which makes it less suitable for the function of selection. A questionnaire measuring these constructs was administered to university students. Results showed that believing that education is intended to select the best students positively predicts support for normative assessment, through increased perception of its reliance on equity, and negatively predicts support for formative assessment, through reduced perception of its ability to establish corrective justice. This study suggests that the belief in the function of selection as inherent to educational institutions can contribute to the reproduction of social inequalities by preventing change from assessment practices known to disadvantage lower-status student, namely normative assessment, to more favorable practices, namely formative assessment, and by promoting matching beliefs in justice principles.

  15. Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rider, William J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Witkowski, Walter R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mousseau, Vincent Andrew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-04-13

    The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationally simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.

  16. The CERAD neuropsychological assessment battery total score detects and predicts Alzheimer disease dementia with high diagnostic accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsgruber, Steffen; Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Stein, Janine; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Köhler, Mirjam; Bachmann, Cadja; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Scherer, Martin; Maier, Wolfgang; Wagner, Michael

    2014-10-01

    To establish the diagnostic accuracy of the Total Score of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease neuropsychological assessment battery (CERAD-NP) both for cross-sectional discrimination of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia and short-term prediction of incident AD dementia. Longitudinal cohort study with two assessments at a 1.5-year interval. Primary care sample randomly recruited via medical record registries. As part of the German Study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia (AgeCoDe), a sample of elderly individuals (N = 1,606; mean age: 84 years) was assessed. Subjects were assessed with the CERAD-NP and followed up for 18 months (97.6% follow-up rate). Logistic regression and receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used to compare the diagnostic accuracy of the CERAD-NP Total Score (CTS) with that of single CERAD-NP scores and the Mini-Mental-State-Examination (MMSE) score. ROC curve analysis resulted in excellent (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.97) cross-sectional discrimination between non-AD and AD dementia subjects. Prediction of incident AD dementia with the CTS was also very good (AUC: 0.89), and was significantly better than prediction based on the MMSE. The cross-sectional results confirm that the CTS is a highly accurate diagnostic tool for detecting AD dementia in elderly primary care patients. In addition, we provide evidence that the CTS is also accurate for the prediction of incident AD dementia. These findings further support the validity of the CTS as an index of overall cognitive functioning for detection and prediction of AD dementia. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangri, Navdeep; Grams, Morgan E; Levey, Andrew S; Coresh, Josef; Appel, Lawrence J; Astor, Brad C; Chodick, Gabriel; Collins, Allan J; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Elley, C Raina; Evans, Marie; Garg, Amit X; Hallan, Stein I; Inker, Lesley A; Ito, Sadayoshi; Jee, Sun Ha; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kronenberg, Florian; Heerspink, Hiddo J Lambers; Marks, Angharad; Nadkarni, Girish N; Navaneethan, Sankar D; Nelson, Robert G; Titze, Stephanie; Sarnak, Mark J; Stengel, Benedicte; Woodward, Mark; Iseki, Kunitoshi

    2016-01-12

    Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk

  18. Life-Space Assessment Predicts Hospital Readmission in Home-Limited Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathi, Roya; Bacchetti, Peter; Haan, Mary N; Houston, Thomas K; Patel, Kanan; Ritchie, Christine S

    2017-05-01

    To describe the association between restricted life-space and characteristics of community-dwelling adults hospitalized for congestive heart failure (CHF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), to estimate the effect of hospitalization on postdischarge mobility, and to determine whether baseline restricted life-space predicts hospital readmission. Observational. Urban academic hospital that serves as a safety net for urban and rural populations with low resources and serves central and northern Alabama. Individuals with CHF or COPD hospitalized from home (N = 478). The Life-Space Assessment (LSA) measures mobility by asking about movement in situations ranging from within one's dwelling to beyond one's town. LSA scores below 60 correspond to "restricted life-space." Baseline LSA scores before admission were measured during an index hospitalization; follow-up LSA scores were determined over the telephone at 90 days. Participant characteristics were examined according to baseline restricted life-space using the chi-square test and Student's t-test. Each characteristic's association with restricted life-space was estimated uisng logistic regression. Of the participants, 372 (77.8%) were classified as having baseline restricted life-space. Baseline restricted life-space was associated with older age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.29 per decade, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17-1.42, P = .001), female sex (OR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.69-4.29, P race (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.00-2.41, P = .05), and having inadequate financial resources (OR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.22-3.38, P = .006). In the baseline unrestricted life-space group, 49.5% (n = 49) had restricted life-space at 90-day follow-up. Baseline restricted life-space was associated with greater odds of 90-day hospital readmission (unadjusted OR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.00-2.70, P = .05; adjusted OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.04-2.85, P = .03). Baseline restricted life-space was associated with greater risk of hospital readmission within 90

  19. Prediction uncertainty assessment of a systems biology model requires a sample of the full probability distribution of its parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon van Mourik

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-parameter models in systems biology are typically ‘sloppy’: some parameters or combinations of parameters may be hard to estimate from data, whereas others are not. One might expect that parameter uncertainty automatically leads to uncertain predictions, but this is not the case. We illustrate this by showing that the prediction uncertainty of each of six sloppy models varies enormously among different predictions. Statistical approximations of parameter uncertainty may lead to dramatic errors in prediction uncertainty estimation. We argue that prediction uncertainty assessment must therefore be performed on a per-prediction basis using a full computational uncertainty analysis. In practice this is feasible by providing a model with a sample or ensemble representing the distribution of its parameters. Within a Bayesian framework, such a sample may be generated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm that infers the parameter distribution based on experimental data. Matlab code for generating the sample (with the Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler and the subsequent uncertainty analysis using such a sample, is supplied as Supplemental Information.

  20. Prediction uncertainty assessment of a systems biology model requires a sample of the full probability distribution of its parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mourik, Simon; Ter Braak, Cajo; Stigter, Hans; Molenaar, Jaap

    2014-01-01

    Multi-parameter models in systems biology are typically 'sloppy': some parameters or combinations of parameters may be hard to estimate from data, whereas others are not. One might expect that parameter uncertainty automatically leads to uncertain predictions, but this is not the case. We illustrate this by showing that the prediction uncertainty of each of six sloppy models varies enormously among different predictions. Statistical approximations of parameter uncertainty may lead to dramatic errors in prediction uncertainty estimation. We argue that prediction uncertainty assessment must therefore be performed on a per-prediction basis using a full computational uncertainty analysis. In practice this is feasible by providing a model with a sample or ensemble representing the distribution of its parameters. Within a Bayesian framework, such a sample may be generated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that infers the parameter distribution based on experimental data. Matlab code for generating the sample (with the Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler) and the subsequent uncertainty analysis using such a sample, is supplied as Supplemental Information.

  1. About Using Predictive Models and Tools To Assess Chemicals under TSCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of EPA's effort to promote chemical safety, OPPT provides public access to predictive models and tools which can help inform the public on the hazards and risks of substances and improve chemical management decisions.

  2. Predictive Models and Tools for Assessing Chemicals under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has developed databases and predictive models to help evaluate the hazard, exposure, and risk of chemicals released to the environment and how workers, the general public, and the environment may be exposed to and affected by them.

  3. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  4. High-Speed Prediction for Real-Time Debris Risk Assessment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Our innovation is a high-speed method for the prediction of aerodynamic debris fields that employs an extensive database of generalized empirical equations coupled...

  5. Establishment of a Predictive In Vitro Assay for Assessment of the Hepatotoxic Potential of Oligonucleotide Drugs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sewing, Sabine; Boess, Franziska; Moisan, Annie; Bertinetti-Lapatki, Cristina; Minz, Tanja; Hedtjaern, Maj; Tessier, Yann; Schuler, Franz; Singer, Thomas; Roth, Adrian B

    2016-01-01

    .... The mechanisms of SSO induced liver toxicity are poorly understood, and up to now no preclinical in vitro model has been established that allows prediction of the hepatotoxicity risk of a given SSO...

  6. Model-data integration for predictive assessment of groundwater reactive transport systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carniato, L.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the evolution of groundwater contamination is a major concern for society, in particular when investments are made to remediate the contamination. Groundwater reactive transport models are valuable tools to integrate the available measurements in a consistent framework, improving our

  7. Time-dependent prediction degredation assessment of neural-networks-based TEC forecasting models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. D. Xenos

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available An estimation of the difference in TEC prediction accuracy achieved when the prediction varies from 1 h to 7 days in advance is described using classical neural networks. Hourly-daily Faraday-rotation derived TEC measurements from Florence are used. It is shown that the prediction accuracy for the examined dataset, though degrading when time span increases, is always high. In fact, when a relative prediction error margin of ± 10% is considered, the population percentage included therein is almost always well above the 55%. It is found that the results are highly dependent on season and the dataset wealth, whereas they highly depend on the foF2 - TEC variability difference and on hysteresis-like effect between these two ionospheric characteristics.

  8. [Prediction of psychosis by stepwise multilevel assessment--the Basel FePsy (Early Recognition of Psychosis)-Project].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riecher-Rössler, A; Aston, J; Borgwardt, S; Bugra, H; Fuhr, P; Gschwandtner, U; Koutsouleris, N; Pflueger, M; Tamagni, C; Radü, E-W; Rapp, C; Smieskova, R; Studerus, E; Walter, A; Zimmermann, R

    2013-05-01

    We have conducted various studies in Basel with the aim of improving the methods for the early detection of psychosis (Früherkennung von Psychosen, FePsy). From 1.3.2000 to 29.2.2004 234 individuals were screened using the Basel Screening Instrument for Psychosis (BSIP). 106 patients were identified as at risk for psychosis; out of these 53 remained in follow-up for up to 7 years (mean 5.4 years). The assessments were done with a specifically developed instrument for history taking, various scales for the psychopathology, assessments of neuropsychology and fine motor functioning, clinical and quantitative EEG, MRI of the brain, laboratory etc. Based on the BSIP alone, a relatively reliable prediction was possible: 21 (39.6%) of the individuals identified as at risk developed psychosis within the follow-up time. Post-hoc prediction could be improved to 81% by weighting psychopathology and including neuropsychology. Including the other domains obviously allows further improvements of prediction. The risk for psychosis should be assessed in a stepwise procedure. In a first step, a clinically oriented screening should be conducted. If an at-risk status is found, further assessments in various domains should be done in a specialised centre. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  9. Simplified predictive models for CO2 sequestration performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Ganesh, Priya [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Schuetter, Jared [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); He, Jincong [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Jin, Zhaoyang [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Durlofsky, Louis J. [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

  10. The Expanded FindCore Method for Identification of a Core Atom Set for Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, David A.; Grullon, Jennifer; Huang, Yuanpeng J.; Tejero, Roberto; Montelione, Gaetano T.

    2014-01-01

    Maximizing the scientific impact of NMR-based structure determination requires robust and statistically sound methods for assessing the precision of NMR-derived structures. In particular, a method to define a core atom set for calculating superimpositions and validating structure predictions is critical to the use of NMR-derived structures as targets in the CASP competition. FindCore (D.A. Snyder and G.T. Montelione PROTEINS 2005;59:673–686) is a superimposition independent method for identifying a core atom set, and partitioning that set into domains. However, as FindCore optimizes superimposition by sensitively excluding not-well-defined atoms, the FindCore core may not comprise all atoms suitable for use in certain applications of NMR structures, including the CASP assessment process. Adapting the FindCore approach to assess predicted models against experimental NMR structures in CASP10 required modification of the FindCore method. This paper describes conventions and a standard protocol to calculate an “Expanded FindCore” atom set suitable for validation and application in biological and biophysical contexts. A key application of the Expanded FindCore method is to identify a core set of atoms in the experimental NMR structure for which it makes sense to validate predicted protein structure models. We demonstrate the application of this Expanded FindCore method in characterizing well-defined regions of 18 NMR-derived CASP10 target structures. The Expanded FindCore protocol defines “expanded core atom sets” that match an expert’s intuition of which parts of the structure are sufficiently well-defined to use in assessing CASP model predictions. We also illustrate the impact of this analysis on the CASP GDT assessment scores. PMID:24327305

  11. Multi-dimensional scores to predict mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis undergoing lung transplantation assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jolene H; Al-Hejaili, Faris; Kandel, Sonja; Hirji, Alim; Shapera, Shane; Mura, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The heterogeneous progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) makes prognostication difficult and contributes to high mortality on the waitlist for lung transplantation (LTx). Multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic index [CPI], [Gender-Age-Physiology [GAP]; RIsk Stratification scorE [RISE]) demonstrated enhanced predictive power towards outcome in IPF. The lung allocation score (LAS) is a multi-dimensional tool commonly used to stratify patients assessed for LTx. We sought to investigate whether IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores predict mortality in patients with IPF assessed for LTx. The study included 302 patients with IPF who underwent a LTx assessment (2003-2014). Multi-dimensional scores were calculated. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality after assessment. LTx was considered as competing event in all analyses. At the end of the observation period, there were 134 transplants, 63 deaths, and 105 patients were alive without LTx. Multi-dimensional scores predicted mortality with accuracy similar to LAS, and superior to that of individual variables: area under the curve (AUC) for LAS was 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 86%); CPI 0.75 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 82%); GAP 0.67 (sensitivity 59%, specificity 74%); RISE 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 84%). A separate analysis conducted only in patients actively listed for LTx (n = 247; 50 deaths) yielded similar results. In patients with IPF assessed for LTx as well as in those actually listed, multi-dimensional scores predict mortality better than individual variables, and with accuracy similar to the LAS. If validated, multi-dimensional scores may serve as inexpensive tools to guide decisions on the timing of referral and listing for LTx. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Predictive validity of risk assessments in juvenile offenders: Comparing the SAVRY, PCL:YV, and YLS/CMI with unstructured clinical assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilterman, Ed L B; Nicholls, Tonia L; van Nieuwenhuizen, Chijs

    2014-06-01

    This study examined the validity and reliability of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) in a sample of Spanish adolescents with a community sanction (N = 105). Self-reported delinquency with a follow-up period of 1 year was used as the outcome measure. The predictive validity of the three measures was compared with the unstructured judgment of the juvenile's probation officer and the self-appraisal of the juvenile. The three measures showed moderate effect sizes, ranging from area under the curve (AUC) = .75 (SAVRY) to AUC = .72 (PCL:YV), in predicting juvenile reoffending. The two unstructured judgments had no significant predictive validity whereas the SAVRY had significantly higher predictive validity compared with both unstructured judgments. Finally, SAVRY protective factor total scores and SAVRY summary risk ratings did not add incremental validity over SAVRY risk total scores. The high base rates of both violent (65.4%) and general reoffending (81.9%) underline the need for further risk assessment and management research with this population. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. A systematic assessment of MHC class II peptide binding predictions and evaluation of a consensus approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The identification of MHC class II restricted peptide epitopes is an important goal in immunological research. A number of computational tools have been developed for this purpose, but there is a lack of large-scale systematic evaluation of their performance. Herein, we used a comprehensive dataset consisting of more than 10,000 previously unpublished MHC-peptide binding affinities, 29 peptide/MHC crystal structures, and 664 peptides experimentally tested for CD4+ T cell responses to systematically evaluate the performances of publicly available MHC class II binding prediction tools. While in selected instances the best tools were associated with AUC values up to 0.86, in general, class II predictions did not perform as well as historically noted for class I predictions. It appears that the ability of MHC class II molecules to bind variable length peptides, which requires the correct assignment of peptide binding cores, is a critical factor limiting the performance of existing prediction tools. To improve performance, we implemented a consensus prediction approach that combines methods with top performances. We show that this consensus approach achieved best overall performance. Finally, we make the large datasets used publicly available as a benchmark to facilitate further development of MHC class II binding peptide prediction methods.

  14. Assessment of Protein Side-Chain Conformation Prediction Methods in Different Residue Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Lenna X.; Kang, Xuejiao; Kihara, Daisuke

    2016-01-01

    Computational prediction of side-chain conformation is an important component of protein structure prediction. Accurate side-chain prediction is crucial for practical applications of protein structure models that need atomic detailed resolution such as protein and ligand design. We evaluated the accuracy of eight side-chain prediction methods in reproducing the side-chain conformations of experimentally solved structures deposited to the Protein Data Bank. Prediction accuracy was evaluated for a total of four different structural environments (buried, surface, interface, and membrane-spanning) in three different protein types (monomeric, multimeric, and membrane). Overall, the highest accuracy was observed for buried residues in monomeric and multimeric proteins. Notably, side-chains at protein interfaces and membrane-spanning regions were better predicted than surface residues even though the methods did not all use multimeric and membrane proteins for training. Thus, we conclude that the current methods are as practically useful for modeling protein docking interfaces and membrane-spanning regions as for modeling monomers. PMID:24619909

  15. Breeding Jatropha curcas by genomic selection: A pilot assessment of the accuracy of predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo de; Laviola, Bruno Galvêas; Alves, Alexandre Alonso; Rosado, Tatiana Barbosa; Bhering, Leonardo Lopes

    2017-01-01

    Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY) and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML); to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.

  16. The predictive value of aptitude assessment in laparoscopic surgery : a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramp, Kelvin H.; van Det, Marc J.; Hoff, Christiaan; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; ten Cate Hoedemaker, Henk O.; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E. N.

    ContextCurrent methods of assessing candidates for medical specialties that involve laparoscopic skills suffer from a lack of instruments to assess the ability to work in a minimally invasive surgery environment. ObjectivesA meta-analysis was conducted to investigate whether aptitude assessment can

  17. Social justice in education: How the function of selection in educational institutions predicts support for (nonegalitarian assessment practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédérique eAutin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Educational institutions are considered a keystone for the establishment of a meritocratic society. They supposedly serve two functions: an educational function that promotes learning for all, and a selection function that sorts individuals into different programs, and ultimately social positions, based on individual merit. We study how the function of selection relates to support for assessment practices known to harm vs. benefit lower status students, through the perceived justice principles underlying these practices. We study two assessment practices: normative assessment—focused on ranking and social comparison, known to hinder the success of lower status students—and formative assessment—focused on learning and improvement, known to benefit lower status students. Normative assessment is usually perceived as relying on an equity principle, with rewards being allocated based on merit and should thus appear as positively associated with the function of selection. Formative assessment is usually perceived as relying on corrective justice that aims to ensure equality of outcomes by considering students’ needs, which makes it less suitable for the function of selection. A questionnaire measuring these constructs was administered to university students. Results showed that believing that education is intended to select the best students positively predicts support for normative assessment, through increased perception of its reliance on equity, and negatively predicts support for formative assessment, through reduced perception of its ability to establish corrective justice. This study suggests that the belief in the function of selection as inherent to educational institutions can contribute to the reproduction of social inequalities by preventing change from assessment practices known to disadvantage lower-status student, namely normative assessment, to more favorable practices, namely formative assessment, and by promoting matching

  18. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Fu, X.; Liu, P. [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, IPRC, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kang, In-Sik; Kug, J.S. [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Shukla, J.; Jin, E.K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B. [George Mason University and COLA, Climate Dynamics Program, Calverton, MD (United States); Park, C.K. [APEC Climate Center, Busan (Korea); Kumar, A.; Schemm, J. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Cocke, S.; Krishnamurti, T. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Luo, J.J. [Frontier Research Center for Global Chnage, Yokohama (Japan); Zhou, T.; Wang, B. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Yun, W.T. [Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea); Alves, O. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Melburne (Australia); Lau, N.C.; Rosati, T.; Stern, W. [Princeton University, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States); Lau, W.; Pegion, P.; Schubert, S.; Suarez, M. [Godard Space Flight Center/NASA, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    2009-07-15

    We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980-2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models' MME for the period of 1981-2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Nino 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface

  19. Budi Iman Santoso Assessment (BISA: a model for predicting levator ani injury after vaginal delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi I. Santoso

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: There have been no attempts or studies to integrate various risk factors that can be utilized to predict levator ani injury caused by vaginal delivery. This study was aimed to establish an index measurement system by using various risk factors for predicting levator ani injury in vaginal delivery.Methods: A prospective cohort was conducted at two hospitals in Jakarta between 2010 and 2011. The subjects were nulipara pregnant women without levator ani injury during pregnancy and vaginal birth. Levator ani injury was evaluated using 4D USG during pregnancy and three months after delivery. The variables studied were age, body mass index, mode of delivery, fetal birth weight, episiotomy, perineum rupture and duration of second stage labor. Prediction model was analyzed using logistic regression analysis.Results: There were 182 recruited subjects of which 124 subjects were eligible and only 104 subjects could be analyzed. Incidence of levator ani injury at three months after delivery was 15.4% (95% CI: 8.6-23%. Two prediction models were obtained. The first consisted of fetal birth weight (OR= 5.36, 95% CI: 1.08-26.59, episiotomy (OR= 5.41, 95% CI: 0.94-31.18, and duration of second stage labor (OR= 15.27, 95% CI: 3.15-73.96. The second model consisted of duration of second stage labor (OR= 9.51, 95% CI: 1.23-68.10 and perineum rupture (OR= 142.70, 95% CI: 14.13-1440.78.Conclusion: Fetal birth weight, episiotomy and duration of second stage labor could predict levator ani injury for model 1; while the variables of prediction for model 2 were duration of second stage labor and perineum rupture. (Med J Indones. 2012;21:102-7Keywords: Levator ani, prediction model

  20. OPR-PPR, a Computer Program for Assessing Data Importance to Model Predictions Using Linear Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthew J. Tonkin; Claire R. Tiedeman; D. Matthew Ely; and Mary C. Hill

    2007-08-16

    The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one

  1. OPR-PPR, a Computer Program for Assessing Data Importance to Model Predictions Using Linear Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkin, Matthew J.; Tiedeman, Claire R.; Ely, D. Matthew; Hill, Mary C.

    2007-01-01

    The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one

  2. An Assessment of the Quality of Crop Yield Predictions under Different Degrees of Water Limitation in European Crop Producing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report on climate change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types of weather extreme events is likely to increase in a number of regions across the globe. The agricultural sector, which plays a crucial role for the livelihood of a large fraction of the world's population, is particularly vulnerable to extreme events due to its dependency on climate conditions.Process-based crop models play an important role for translating climate and weather information into agricultural forecasts, both at decadal time scales as part of climate impact assessments and shorter time scales, for examples for seasonal yield predictions as part of early warning systems for harvest failures. A variety of crop models exist, with different degrees of complexity, spatial and temporal resolutions, incorporated chemical, physical and biological processes and mathematical formulations of these processes. Furthermore, crop models differ with regard to the agro-climatic zones and crop types for which they were calibrated and validated. For these reasons, crop models can vary significantly with respect to their suitability for yield forecasts under different climate conditions, geographical regions and crop types.In this study, we assess the quality of crop yield predictions of the vegetation model LPJmL for four major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soy) under a range of water limitation conditions in Europe, using a high-resolution regional climate data set (0.1 ° x 0.1 °) covering the period 1989-2008. The aim of the study is to examine the degree of uncertainty of yield predictions for different agro-climatic zones and to identify the factors that influence the goodness-of-fit of model predictions. By this, we hope to provide input into further model improvements and to provide guidance for decision-makers on the suitability of yield predictions for different climatic regions within the European continent.

  3. Assessing the utility of a prognostication model to predict 1-year mortality in patients receiving radiation therapy for spinal metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Diana D; Chen, Yu-Hui; Lam, Tai Chung; Leonard, Dana; Balboni, Tracy Anne; Schoenfeld, Andrew; Skamene, Sonia; Cagney, Daniel N; Chi, John H; Cho, Charles H; Harris, Mitchel; Ferrone, Marco L; Hertan, Lauren M

    2017-10-12

    Predicting survival outcomes after radiation therapy alone for metastatic disease of the spine is a challenging task that is important to guiding treatment decisions (e.g., determining dose fractionation and intensity). The New England Spinal Metastasis Score (NESMS) was recently introduced and validated in independent cohorts as a tool to predict 1-year survival following surgery for spinal metastases. This metric is composed of 3 factors: pre-operative albumin, ambulatory status, and modified Bauer score, with the total score ranging from 0 to 3. The purpose of this study is to assess the applicability of the NESMS model to predict 1-year survival among patients treated with radiation therapy alone for spinal metastases. This study is a retrospective analysis. This sample included 290 patients who underwent conventional radiation therapy alone for spinal metastases. Patients' NESMS scores (comprised of ambulatory status, pre-treatment serum albumin, and modified Bauer score) were assessed as well as their 1-year overall survival rates following radiation for metastatic disease of the spine. This study is a single-institution retrospective analysis of 290 patients treated with conventional radiation alone for spinal metastases from 2008 to 2013. The predictive value of the NESMS was assessed using multivariable logistic regression modeling, adjusted for potential confounding variables. This analysis indicated that patients with lower NESMS scores had higher rates of 1-year mortality. Multivariable analysis demonstrated a strong association between lower NESMS scores and lower rates of survival. The NESMS score is a simple prognostic scheme that requires clinical data that is often readily available and has been validated in independent cohorts of surgical patients. This study serves to validate the utility of the NESMS composite score to predict 1-year mortality in patients treated with radiation alone for spinal metastases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All

  4. Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

    2016-12-01

    Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

  5. Towards Adaptive Educational Assessments: Predicting Student Performance using Temporal Stability and Data Analytics in Learning Management Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thakur, Gautam [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; McNair, Wade [ORNL; Sukumar, Sreenivas R [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Data-driven assessments and adaptive feedback are becoming a cornerstone research in educational data analytics and involve developing methods for exploring the unique types of data that come from the educational context. For example, predicting college student performance is crucial for both the students and educational institutions. It can support timely intervention to prevent students from failing a course, increasing efficacy of advising functions, and improving course completion rate. In this paper, we present our efforts in using data analytics that enable educationists to design novel data-driven assessment and feedback mechanisms. In order to achieve this objective, we investigate temporal stability of students grades and perform predictive analytics on academic data collected from 2009 through 2013 in one of the most commonly used learning management systems, called Moodle. First, we have identified the data features useful for assessments and predicting student outcomes such as students scores in homework assignments, quizzes, exams, in addition to their activities in discussion forums and their total Grade Point Average(GPA) at the same term they enrolled in the course. Second, time series models in both frequency and time domains are applied to characterize the progression as well as overall projections of the grades. In particular, the model analyzed the stability as well as fluctuation of grades among students during the collegiate years (from freshman to senior) and disciplines. Third, Logistic Regression and Neural Network predictive models are used to identify students as early as possible who are in danger of failing the course they are currently enrolled in. These models compute the likelihood of any given student failing (or passing) the current course. The time series analysis indicates that assessments and continuous feedback are critical for freshman and sophomores (even with easy courses) than for seniors, and those assessments may be

  6. Assessing the Impact of Tissue Target Concentration Data on Uncertainty in In Vivo Target Coverage Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, A; Luo, H; Chen, X; Singh, P; Bhattacharya, I; Jasper, P; Tolsma, J E; Jones, H M; Zutshi, A; Abraham, A K

    2016-10-01

    Understanding pharmacological target coverage is fundamental in drug discovery and development as it helps establish a sequence of research activities, from laboratory objectives to clinical doses. To this end, we evaluated the impact of tissue target concentration data on the level of confidence in tissue coverage predictions using a site of action (SoA) model for antibodies. By fitting the model to increasing amounts of synthetic tissue data and comparing the uncertainty in SoA coverage predictions, we confirmed that, in general, uncertainty decreases with longitudinal tissue data. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis showed that coverage is sensitive to experimentally identifiable parameters, such as baseline target concentration in plasma and target turnover half-life and fixing them reduces uncertainty in coverage predictions. Overall, our computational analysis indicates that measurement of baseline tissue target concentration reduces the uncertainty in coverage predictions and identifies target-related parameters that greatly impact the confidence in coverage predictions. © 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  7. The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie Riemer

    Full Text Available Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

  8. The Predictive Value of Early Behavioural Assessments in Pet Dogs – A Longitudinal Study from Neonates to Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

    2014-01-01

    Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2–10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40–50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited. PMID:25003341

  9. Prediction of lethal pulmonary hypoplasia by means fetal lung volume in skeletal dysplasias: a three-dimensional ultrasound assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carolina Amorim; Rezende, Guilherme de Castro; Araujo Júnior, Edward; Tonni, Gabriele; Pereira, Alamanda Kfoury

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the capacity of three-dimensional ultrasound (3DUS) for predicting lethality in fetuses with skeletal dysplasia. Twenty-four fetuses between 20 and 32 weeks of gestation were assessed. Bilateral lung volume scans were performed three times in each fetus during one ultrasound session. The virtual organ computer-aided analysis method was used to obtain a sequence of six sections of each lung around a fixed axis, and a rotation angle of 30° was adopted. Fetal lung volume measurements were analyzed according to the reference range. After birth, lung hypoplasia was diagnosed considering clinical and radiological criteria. Of all cases of skeletal dysplasia, 18 (75%) were lethal. Among the lethal cases, after postnatal diagnosis, four were osteogenesis imperfecta type II, three were thanatophoric dysplasia and two were campomelic dysplasia. The remaining nine cases remained without a definitive diagnosis. The accuracy of 3DUS in predicting lethality in fetuses with skeletal dysplasia was high, with a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100% and negative predictive value of 66.7%. The kappa index of 0.174 showed a good agreement between the possibility of lethality when the 3DUS volume measurement was altered and real lethality after birth (p lung volume measurement is a good predictor of lethal pulmonary hypoplasia in fetuses with skeletal dysplasia, with high accuracy.

  10. The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

    2014-01-01

    Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

  11. Predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Court Pre-Screen Assessment in the Netherlands: the development of a new scoring system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Stams, G.J.J.M.; Deković, M.; van der Laan, P.H.

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Pre-Screen Assessment (WSJCA pre-screen) in the Netherlands. Previous research conducted in the United States showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen to be modest, as is the case with the predictive validity

  12. Predictive Validity of the Washington State Juvenile Court Pre-Screen Assessment in the Netherlands : The Development of a New Scoring System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, Claudia E.; Stams, Geert Jan J. M.; Dekovic, Maja; van der Laan, Peter H.

    This study examined the predictive validity of the Washington State Juvenile Pre-Screen Assessment (WSJCA pre-screen) in the Netherlands. Previous research conducted in the United States showed the predictive validity of the WSJCA pre-screen to be modest, as is the case with the predictive validity

  13. Clinical judgement and geriatric assessment for predicting prognosis and chemotherapy completion in older patients with a hematological malignancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamaker, M E; Augschoell, J; Stauder, R

    2016-11-01

    Prior research has focused on comparing clinical judgment with geriatric assessments in identifying potentially unfit patients or the prognostic value of geriatric impairments. In this study, we set out to compare and combine geriatric impairments with clinical judgment in predicting mortality and non-completion of chemotherapy in older patients with a hematological malignancy. Between March 2004 and August 2014, a multi-dimensional geriatric assessment was performed in consecutive patients aged ≥65 years diagnosed with a hematological malignancy at the Innsbruck university hospital. Associations between geriatric assessment, clinical judgment (derived from initial treatment decision) and outcome (mortality, non-completion) were analyzed. Patient sample consisted of 157 patients, of which 37% was 80 + years of age. Aggressive non-Hodgkin lymphoma (29%), acute myeloid leukemia (27%) and myelodysplastic syndromes (20%) were most common diagnoses. Prevalence of an impaired geriatric assessment (i.e. impairments in ≥2 of eight assessed domains) was 71% and similar for patients receiving standard (71%) or attenuated treatment (72%). Clinical judgment was the strongest predictor of mortality (p = 0.003); addition of geriatric assessment allowed for further stratification of patients with a good (>75% one year survival), intermediate (50-60%) and poor prognosis (geriatric impairments further increased risk of mortality. Clinical judgment was greatly superior to geriatric assessment in identifying patients at risk for non-completion. The combination of clinical judgment and geriatric assessment allows for better prognostic stratification of patients compared to clinical judgment alone.

  14. Assessment and Validation of Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Molecular Atomization Energies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Katja; Montavon, Grégoire; Biegler, Franziska; Fazli, Siamac; Rupp, Matthias; Scheffler, Matthias; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole; Tkatchenko, Alexandre; Müller, Klaus-Robert

    2013-08-13

    The accurate and reliable prediction of properties of molecules typically requires computationally intensive quantum-chemical calculations. Recently, machine learning techniques applied to ab initio calculations have been proposed as an efficient approach for describing the energies of molecules in their given ground-state structure throughout chemical compound space (Rupp et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2012, 108, 058301). In this paper we outline a number of established machine learning techniques and investigate the influence of the molecular representation on the methods performance. The best methods achieve prediction errors of 3 kcal/mol for the atomization energies of a wide variety of molecules. Rationales for this performance improvement are given together with pitfalls and challenges when applying machine learning approaches to the prediction of quantum-mechanical observables.

  15. Uncertainty assessment of early flood warning driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Li, Zhijia; He, Yi; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Manful, Desmond; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    The Xinanjiang hydrological model is used in flood forecasting driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions. Uncertainties are inherent in both the ensemble weather predictions and the hydrological models. The study aims to study uncertainties originated from (1) the ensemble weather predictions and (2) the hydrological model. The study area is the Xixian catchment, upstream of the Huai River located in central east China. The catchment has a number of reservoirs which account for approximately 10% of the total catchment area. Reservoir water release plan is the key to a successful and reliable flood early warning and mitigation scheme. Different scenarios of reservoir releases are taken into account in this study. A benefit-cost analysis is carried out to estimate the overall value for money when an early warning is issued under various scenarios and probabilistic forecasts.

  16. Assessing GPCR homology models constructed from templates of various transmembrane sequence identities: Binding mode prediction and docking enrichment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loo, Jason S E; Emtage, Abigail L; Ng, Kar Weng; Yong, Alene S J; Doughty, Stephen W

    2018-03-01

    GPCR crystal structures have become more readily accessible in recent years. However, homology models of GPCRs continue to play an important role as many GPCR structures remain unsolved. The new crystal structures now available provide not only additional templates for homology modelling but also the opportunity to assess the performance of homology models against their respective crystal structures and gain insight into the performance of such models. In this study we have constructed homology models from templates of various transmembrane sequence identities for eight GPCR targets to better understand the relationship between transmembrane sequence identity and model quality. Model quality was assessed relative to the crystal structure in terms of structural accuracy as well as performance in two typical structure-based drug design applications: ligand binding pose prediction and docking enrichment in virtual screening. Crystal structures significantly outperformed homology models in both assessments. Accurate ligand binding pose prediction was possible but difficult to achieve using homology models, even with the use of induced fit docking. In virtual screening using homology models still conferred significant enrichment compared to random selection, with a clear benefit also observed in using models optimized through induced fit docking. Our results indicate that while homology models that are reasonably accurate structurally can be constructed, without significant refinement homology models will be outperformed by crystal structures in ligand binding pose prediction and docking enrichment regardless of the template used, primarily due to the extremely high level of structural accuracy needed for such applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk assessment and predicting outcomes in patients with depressive symptoms: A review of potential role of peripheral blood based biomarkers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhautesh Dinesh Jani

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Depression is one of the major global health challenges and a leading contributor of health related disability and costs. Depression is a heterogeneous disorder and current methods for assessing its severity in clinical practice rely on symptom count, however this approach is unreliable and inconsistent. The clinical evaluation of depressive symptoms is particularly challenging in primary care, where the majority of patients with depression are managed, due to the presence of co-morbidities. Current methods for risk assessment of depression do not accurately predict treatment response or clinical outcomes. Several biological pathways have been implicated in the pathophysiology of depression; however, accurate and predictive biomarkers remain elusive. We conducted a systematic review of the published evidence supporting the use of peripheral biomarkers to predict outcomes in depression, using Medline and Embase. Peripheral biomarkers in depression were found to be statistically significant predictors of mental health outcomes such as treatment response, poor outcome and symptom remission; and physical health outcomes such as increased incidence of cardiovascular events and deaths, and all-cause mortality. However, the available evidence has multiple methodological limitations which must be overcome to make any real clinical progress. Despite extensive research on the relationship of depression with peripheral biomarkers, its translational application in practice remains uncertain. In future, peripheral biomarkers identified with novel techniques and combining multiple biomarkers may have a potential role in depression risk assessment but further research is needed in this area.

  18. Use of citation analysis to predict the outcome of the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise for Unit of Assessment (UoA 61: Library and Information Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Holmes

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A citation study was carried out to predict the outcome of the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise. The correlation between scores achieved by academic departments in the UK in the 1996 Research Assessment Exercise, and the number of citations received by academics in those departments for articles published in the period 1994-2000, using the Institute for Scientific Information’s citation databases, was assessed. A citation study was carried out on all three hundred and thirty eight academics that teach in the UK library and information science schools. These authors between them received two thousand three hundred and one citations for articles they had published between 1994 and the present. The results were ranked by Department, and compared to the ratings awarded to the departments in the 1996 Higher Education Funding Council Research Assessment Exercise. On the assumption that RAE scores and citation counts are correlated, predictions were made for the likely RAE scores in the 2001 RAE. Comments were also made on the impact of staff movements from one Higher Education Institution to another.

  19. Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshall, Andrew G. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, (Australia); Hudson, Debra; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-12-15

    We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December-February (austral summer) and least realistic in March-May (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3 weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October-March. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3 weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. (orig.)

  20. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Auken, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Bamberg, Charlotte A. [City of Aarhus (Denmark); Christensen, Britt S.B. [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Clausen, Thomas [DHI, Hørsholm (Denmark); Dalgaard, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Effersø, Flemming [SkyTEM Aps, Beder (Denmark); Ernstsen, Vibeke [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Gertz, Flemming [Knowledge Center for Agriculture, Skejby (Denmark); Hansen, Anne Lausten [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); He, Xin [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Jacobsen, Brian H. [Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jensen, Karsten Høgh [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Koch, Julian [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Nilsson, Bertel [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Petersen, Christian [City of Odder (Denmark); De Schepper, Guillaume [Université Laval, Québec (Canada); Schamper, Cyril [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); and others

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  1. Validation assessment of risk tools to predict outcome after thrombolytic therapy for acute ischemic stroke

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Hooff, Robbert-Jan; Nieboer, Koenraad; De Smedt, Ann; Moens, Maarten; De Deyn, Peter Paul; De Keyser, Jacques; Brouns, Raf

    2014-01-01

    Objective: We evaluated the reliability of eight clinical prediction models for symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) and long-term functional outcome in stroke patients treated with thrombolytics according to clinical practice. Methods: In a cohort of 169 patients, 60 patients (35.5%)

  2. Critical assessment of tools to predict clinically insignificant prostate cancer at radical prostatectomy in contemporary men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chun, Felix K-H; Haese, Alexander; Ahyai, Sascha A; Walz, Jochen; Suardi, Nazareno; Capitanio, Umberto; Graefen, Markus; Erbersdobler, Andreas; Huland, Hartwig; Karakiewicz, Pierre I

    2008-08-15

    Overtreatment of prostate cancer (PCa) is a concern, especially in patients who might qualify for the diagnosis of insignificant prostate cancer (IPCa). The ability to identify IPCa prior to definitive therapy was tested. In a cohort of 1132 men a nomogram was developed to predict the probability of IPCa. Predictors consisted of prostate-specific antigen (PSA), clinical stage, biopsy Gleason sum, core cancer length and percentage of positive biopsy cores (percent positive cores). IPCa was defined as organ-confined PCa (OC) with tumor volume (TV) <0.5 cc and without Gleason 4 or 5 patterns. Finally, an external validation of the most accurate IPCa nomogram was performed in the same group. IPCa was pathologically confirmed in 65 (5.7%) men. The 200 bootstrap-corrected predictive accuracy of the new nomogram was 90% versus 81% for the older nomogram. However, in cutoff-based analyses of patients who were qualified by our and the older nomograms as high probability for IPCa, respectively 63% and 45% harbored aggressive PCa variants at radical prostatectomy (Gleason score 7-10, ECE, SVI, and/or LNI). Despite a high accuracy, currently available models for prediction of IPCa are incorrect in 10% to 20% of predictions. The rate of misclassification is even further inflated when specific cutoffs are used. As a consequence, extreme caution is advised when statistical tools are used to assign the diagnosis of IPCa. 2008 American Cancer Society

  3. Assessment of dual tasking has no clinical value for fall prediction in Parkinson's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, K.; Esselink, R.A.J.; Weiss, A.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Geurts, A.C.H.; Bloem, B.R.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the value of dual-task performance for the prediction of falls inpatients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Two hundred sixty three patients with PD (H&Y 1-3, 65.2 +/- 7.9 years)walked two times along a 10-m trajectory, both under single-task and dual-task

  4. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  5. Development of Predictive Relationships for Flood Hazard Assessments in Ungaged Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) is to develop predictive relationships for characterizing the flood hazard in ungaged basins...intervals to an hour. Temporal downscaling of 24-hour accumulated return period of rainfall intensity to an hourly rate was based on the Soil Conservation ...return period. (Source: METCON, Meteorological Connections LLC.) SOIL DATA: The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) United Nations world soil

  6. Assessment of cardiovascular reflexes is of limited value in predicting maximal +Gz-tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Lieshout, E. J.; van Lieshout, J. J.; Krol, J.; Simons, M.; Karemaker, J. M.

    1992-01-01

    The importance of +Gz-induced loss of consciousness as a major cause of inflight incapacitation emphasizes the need for predicting +Gz-tolerance and investigating its possible determinants. The cardiovascular changes from +Gz-stress are initially counteracted reflexly by the cardiovascular autonomic

  7. Interests, Work Values, and Occupations: Predicting Work Outcomes with the WorkKeys Fit Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaney, Kyle B.; Allen, Jeff; Casillas, Alex; Hanson, Mary Ann; Robbins, Steven B.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined whether a measure of person-environment (P-E) fit predicted worker ratings of work attitudes and supervisor ratings of performance. After combining extant data elements and expert ratings of interest and work value characteristics for each occupation in the O*NET system, the authors generated a "Fit Index"--involving profile…

  8. Trajectories of Psychosocial Problems in Adolescents Predicted by Findings From Early Well-Child Assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaspers, Merlijne; de Winter, Andrea F.; Huisman, Mark; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Stewart, Roy E.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To describe trajectories of emotional and behavioral problems in adolescents and to identify early indicators of these trajectories using data from routine well-child assessments at ages 0-4 years. Methods: Data from three assessment waves of adolescents (n = 1,816) of the TRAILS were used

  9. North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR): Reliability and Predictive Validity with Juvenile Offenders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.; Fraser, Mark W.; Day, Steven H.; Arnold, Elizabeth Mayfield

    2004-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment instruments are used increasingly in juvenile justice to classify youths according to their risk of recidivism. The purpose of this article is to describe the results of two studies of one instrument: the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR). In the first study, the inter-rater reliability of the risk assessment…

  10. Functional Assessment to Predict Capacity for Work in a Population of School-Leavers with Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagar, Kathy; Green, Janette; Gordon, Robert; Owen, Alan; Masso, Malcolm; Williams, Kathryn

    2006-01-01

    This study reports on an assessment system for school-leavers with disabilities to identify their capacity for work and the type of transition-to-work programme best suited to each person. Participants were 1,556 high school students in four cohorts who left school between 1999 and 2002. Each school-leaver was assessed by rehabilitation…

  11. Predicting adult pulmonary ventilation volume and wearing complianceby on-board accelerometry during personal level exposure assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodes, C. E.; Chillrud, S. N.; Haskell, W. L.; Intille, S. S.; Albinali, F.; Rosenberger, M. E.

    2012-09-01

    BackgroundMetabolic functions typically increase with human activity, but optimal methods to characterize activity levels for real-time predictions of ventilation volume (l min-1) during exposure assessments have not been available. Could tiny, triaxial accelerometers be incorporated into personal level monitors to define periods of acceptable wearing compliance, and allow the exposures (μg m-3) to be extended to potential doses in μg min-1 kg-1 of body weight? ObjectivesIn a pilot effort, we tested: 1) whether appropriately-processed accelerometer data could be utilized to predict compliance and in linear regressions to predict ventilation volumes in real-time as an on-board component of personal level exposure sensor systems, and 2) whether locating the exposure monitors on the chest in the breathing zone, provided comparable accelerometric data to other locations more typically utilized (waist, thigh, wrist, etc.). MethodsPrototype exposure monitors from RTI International and Columbia University were worn on the chest by a pilot cohort of adults while conducting an array of scripted activities (all ventilation volumes in-situ. For the subset of participants with complete data (n = 22), linear regressions were constructed (processed accelerometric variable versus ventilation rate) for each participant and exposure monitor type, and Pearson correlations computed to compare across scenarios. ResultsTriaxial accelerometer data were demonstrated to be adequately sensitive indicators for predicting exposure monitor wearing compliance. Strong linear correlations (R values from 0.77 to 0.99) were observed for all participants for both exposure sensor accelerometer variables against ventilation volume for recumbent, sedentary, and ambulatory activities with MET values ˜side wrist location (R = 0.57; p = 0.016). ConclusionsEven with a modest number of adult volunteers, the consistency and linearity of regression slopes for all subjects were very good with excellent

  12. Adapting Agriculture Platforms for Nutrition: A Case Study of a Participatory, Video-Based Agricultural Extension Platform in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suneetha Kadiyala

    Full Text Available Successful integration of nutrition interventions into large-scale development programmes from nutrition-relevant sectors, such as agriculture, can address critical underlying determinants of undernutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of on-going nutrition-specific activities. However, evidence on how this can be done is limited. This study examines the feasibility of delivering maternal, infant, and young child nutrition behaviour change communication through an innovative agricultural extension programme serving nutritionally vulnerable groups in rural India. The existing agriculture programme involves participatory production of low-cost videos promoting best practices and broad dissemination through village-level women's self-help groups. For the nutrition intervention, 10 videos promoting specific maternal, infant, and young child nutrition practices were produced and disseminated in 30 villages. A range of methods was used to collect data, including in-depth interviews with project staff, frontline health workers, and self-help group members and their families; structured observations of mediated video dissemination sessions; nutrition knowledge tests with project staff and self-help group members; and a social network questionnaire to assess diffusion of promoted nutrition messages. We found the nutrition intervention to be well-received by rural communities and viewed as complementary to existing frontline health services. However, compared to agriculture, nutrition content required more time, creativity, and technical support to develop and deliver. Experimentation with promoted nutrition behaviours was high, but sharing of information from the videos with non-viewers was limited. Key lessons learned include the benefits of and need for collaboration with existing health services; continued technical support for implementing partners; engagement with local cultural norms and beliefs; empowerment of women's group members

  13. Adapting Agriculture Platforms for Nutrition: A Case Study of a Participatory, Video-Based Agricultural Extension Platform in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiyala, Suneetha; Morgan, Emily H; Cyriac, Shruthi; Margolies, Amy; Roopnaraine, Terry

    2016-01-01

    Successful integration of nutrition interventions into large-scale development programmes from nutrition-relevant sectors, such as agriculture, can address critical underlying determinants of undernutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of on-going nutrition-specific activities. However, evidence on how this can be done is limited. This study examines the feasibility of delivering maternal, infant, and young child nutrition behaviour change communication through an innovative agricultural extension programme serving nutritionally vulnerable groups in rural India. The existing agriculture programme involves participatory production of low-cost videos promoting best practices and broad dissemination through village-level women's self-help groups. For the nutrition intervention, 10 videos promoting specific maternal, infant, and young child nutrition practices were produced and disseminated in 30 villages. A range of methods was used to collect data, including in-depth interviews with project staff, frontline health workers, and self-help group members and their families; structured observations of mediated video dissemination sessions; nutrition knowledge tests with project staff and self-help group members; and a social network questionnaire to assess diffusion of promoted nutrition messages. We found the nutrition intervention to be well-received by rural communities and viewed as complementary to existing frontline health services. However, compared to agriculture, nutrition content required more time, creativity, and technical support to develop and deliver. Experimentation with promoted nutrition behaviours was high, but sharing of information from the videos with non-viewers was limited. Key lessons learned include the benefits of and need for collaboration with existing health services; continued technical support for implementing partners; engagement with local cultural norms and beliefs; empowerment of women's group members to champion nutrition

  14. Factors predicting cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease patients. Role of subclinical atheromatosis extent assessed by vascular ultrasound.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M Valdivielso

    Full Text Available Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD have an increased incidence of cardiovascular events (CVE. The contribution of subclinical atheromatosis extent, including femoral arteries, to CVE in CKD patients has not been investigated. In this paper, we examine the prognostic value of subclinical atheromatosis extent, assessed as the number of arterial territories with plaque, in predicting the incidence of major and minor CVE. The NEFRONA is a multicenter, prospective cohorts study that recruited 2445 CKD subjects and 559 controls, free from previous cardiovascular disease, in 81 medical centers across Spain. The presence of atheroma plaque was assessed by arterial ultrasound in ten arterial territories (carotid and femoral. The predictive power of the presence or absence of atheroma plaque in any territory was compared with the quantification of atheroma extent as the number of territories with plaque. During the median follow up of 48 months, 216 CVE were reported. Factors predicting the incidence of CVE in the whole cohort were being male, CKD patient, lower levels of 25(OH vitamin D, higher levels of cholesterol and the extent of subclinical atheromatosis, yielding a higher concordance (C index than the presence or absence of plaque. In stratified analysis including specific factors of CKD patients not on dialysis, the variables predicting CVE were the same as in the whole cohort, plus higher levels of potassium. Again, the inclusion of the information about atheromatosis as number of territories with plaque, presented a higher C index than the presence or absence of plaque. In the dialysis population, significant variables were older age, diabetes, dialysis vintage and higher levels of cholesterol and phosphate. In this case the higher C index was obtained with the information about plaque presence. Subclinical atheromatosis extent, including femoral arteries, influences CVE in CKD and its detection could improve the prediction of

  15. Factors predicting cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease patients. Role of subclinical atheromatosis extent assessed by vascular ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdivielso, José M; Betriu, Angels; Martinez-Alonso, Montserrat; Arroyo, David; Bermudez-Lopez, Marcelino; Fernandez, Elvira

    2017-01-01

    Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have an increased incidence of cardiovascular events (CVE). The contribution of subclinical atheromatosis extent, including femoral arteries, to CVE in CKD patients has not been investigated. In this paper, we examine the prognostic value of subclinical atheromatosis extent, assessed as the number of arterial territories with plaque, in predicting the incidence of major and minor CVE. The NEFRONA is a multicenter, prospective cohorts study that recruited 2445 CKD subjects and 559 controls, free from previous cardiovascular disease, in 81 medical centers across Spain. The presence of atheroma plaque was assessed by arterial ultrasound in ten arterial territories (carotid and femoral). The predictive power of the presence or absence of atheroma plaque in any territory was compared with the quantification of atheroma extent as the number of territories with plaque. During the median follow up of 48 months, 216 CVE were reported. Factors predicting the incidence of CVE in the whole cohort were being male, CKD patient, lower levels of 25(OH) vitamin D, higher levels of cholesterol and the extent of subclinical atheromatosis, yielding a higher concordance (C) index than the presence or absence of plaque. In stratified analysis including specific factors of CKD patients not on dialysis, the variables predicting CVE were the same as in the whole cohort, plus higher levels of potassium. Again, the inclusion of the information about atheromatosis as number of territories with plaque, presented a higher C index than the presence or absence of plaque. In the dialysis population, significant variables were older age, diabetes, dialysis vintage and higher levels of cholesterol and phosphate. In this case the higher C index was obtained with the information about plaque presence. Subclinical atheromatosis extent, including femoral arteries, influences CVE in CKD and its detection could improve the prediction of cardiovascular events.

  16. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments--a framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Auken, Esben; Bamberg, Charlotte A; Christensen, Britt S B; Clausen, Thomas; Dalgaard, Esben; Effersø, Flemming; Ernstsen, Vibeke; Gertz, Flemming; Hansen, Anne Lausten; He, Xin; Jacobsen, Brian H; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt; Koch, Julian; Nilsson, Bertel; Petersen, Christian; De Schepper, Guillaume; Schamper, Cyril; Sørensen, Kurt I; Therrien, Rene; Thirup, Christian; Viezzoli, Andrea

    2014-01-15

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30-50 m and 2m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  17. Predictive Value of Updating te Score Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Engine with Novel Biomarkers in a Type 2 Diabetes Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popa Loredana Mӑdӑlina

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: The aim of the study was to estimate the predictive value of some new biomarkers in the assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk in a type 2 diabetes (T2DM population and to perform a correlation between the SCORE risk results and the risk profile estimated by the use of these biomarkers. Finally, we aimed to establish if the CVD risk assessment can be improved by adding the biomarkers into the SCORE risk equation. Material and Methods: In the study population the CVD risk assessment was performed using the SCORE High Risk Chart. The new individual biomarkers were: estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, urinary albumin excretion (UAE rate, albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL and apolipoprotein B (apo-B. Results: The SCORE risk prediction model results were significantly altered by adding in the equation apo-B and HDLc values. An increase of one standard deviation of the apo-B values caused the increase of the SCORE results with 0.19 standard deviations while an increase of one standard deviation of the HDLc values decreased the SCORE results with 0.26 standard deviations. Conclusions: Advanced lipid testing, including the measurement of apo-B, provides a more comprehensive cardiac risk assessment and should be used in the development of specifically designed risk-scores for T2DM individuals.

  18. Do personality traits assessed on medical school admission predict exit performance? A UK-wide longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, R K; Dowell, J; Ayansina, D; Cleland, J A

    2017-05-01

    Traditional methods of assessing personality traits in medical school selection have been heavily criticised. To address this at the point of selection, "non-cognitive" tests were included in the UK Clinical Aptitude Test, the most widely-used aptitude test in UK medical education (UKCAT: http://www.ukcat.ac.uk/ ). We examined the predictive validity of these non-cognitive traits with performance during and on exit from medical school. We sampled all students graduating in 2013 from the 30 UKCAT consortium medical schools. Analysis included: candidate demographics, UKCAT non-cognitive scores, medical school performance data-the Educational Performance Measure (EPM) and national exit situational judgement test (SJT) outcomes. We examined the relationships between these variables and SJT and EPM scores. Multilevel modelling was used to assess the relationships adjusting for confounders. The 3343 students who had taken the UKCAT non-cognitive tests and had both EPM and SJT data were entered into the analysis. There were four types of non-cognitive test: (1) libertariancommunitarian, (2) NACE-narcissism, aloofness, confidence and empathy, (3) MEARS-self-esteem, optimism, control, self-discipline, emotional-nondefensiveness (END) and faking, (4) an abridged version of 1 and 2 combined. Multilevel regression showed that, after correcting for demographic factors, END predicted SJT and EPM decile. Aloofness and empathy in NACE were predictive of SJT score. This is the first large-scale study examining the relationship between performance on non-cognitive selection tests and medical school exit assessments. The predictive validity of these tests was limited, and the relationships revealed do not fit neatly with theoretical expectations. This study does not support their use in selection.

  19. Assessing conservation relevance of organism-environment relations using predicted changes in response variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Barrow, Wylie C.; White, Joseph D.; Johnson-Randall, Lori; Cade, Brian S.; Zygo, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    1. Organism–environment models are used widely in conservation. The degree to which they are useful for informing conservation decisions – the conservation relevance of these relations – is important because lack of relevance may lead to misapplication of scarce conservation resources or failure to resolve important conservation dilemmas. Even when models perform well based on model fit and predictive ability, conservation relevance of associations may not be clear without also knowing the magnitude and variability of predicted changes in response variables. 2. We introduce a method for evaluating the conservation relevance of organism–environment relations that employs confidence intervals for predicted changes in response variables. The confidence intervals are compared to a preselected magnitude of change that marks a threshold (trigger) for conservation action. To demonstrate the approach, we used a case study from the Chihuahuan Desert involving relations between avian richness and broad-scale patterns of shrubland. We considered relations for three winters and two spatial extents (1- and 2-km-radius areas) and compared predicted changes in richness to three thresholds (10%, 20% and 30% change). For each threshold, we examined 48 relations. 3. The method identified seven, four and zero conservation-relevant changes in mean richness for the 10%, 20% and 30% thresholds respectively. These changes were associated with major (20%) changes in shrubland cover, mean patch size, the coefficient of variation for patch size, or edge density but not with major changes in shrubland patch density. The relative rarity of conservation-relevant changes indicated that, overall, the relations had little practical value for informing conservation decisions about avian richness. 4. The approach we illustrate is appropriate for various response and predictor variables measured at any temporal or spatial scale. The method is broadly applicable across ecological

  20. Misleading Health-Related Information Promoted Through Video-Based Social Media: Anorexia on YouTube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu-Chuan; Crain, Steven; Hsu, Min-Huei; Wang, Yao-Chin; Khandregzen, Dorjsuren; Chuluunbaatar, Enkhzaya; Nguyen, Phung Anh

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The amount of information being uploaded onto social video platforms, such as YouTube, Vimeo, and Veoh, continues to spiral, making it increasingly difficult to discern reliable health information from misleading content. There are thousands of YouTube videos promoting misleading information about anorexia (eg, anorexia as a healthy lifestyle). Objective The aim of this study was to investigate anorexia-related misinformation disseminated through YouTube videos. Methods We retrieved YouTube videos related to anorexia using the keywords anorexia, anorexia nervosa, proana, and thinspo on October 10, 2011.Three doctors reviewed 140 videos with approximately 11 hours of video content, classifying them as informative, pro-anorexia, or others. By informative we mean content describing the health consequences of anorexia and advice on how to recover from it; by pro-anorexia we mean videos promoting anorexia as a fashion, a source of beauty, and that share tips and methods for becoming and remaining anorexic. The 40 most-viewed videos (20 informative and 20 pro-anorexia videos) were assessed to gauge viewer behavior. Results The interrater agreement of classification was moderate (Fleiss’ kappa=0.5), with 29.3% (n=41) being rated as pro-anorexia, 55.7% (n=78) as informative, and 15.0% (n=21) as others. Pro-anorexia videos were favored 3 times more than informative videos (odds ratio [OR] 3.3, 95% CI 3.3-3.4, Panorexia information was identified in 29.3% of anorexia-related videos. Pro-anorexia videos are less common than informative videos; however, in proportional terms, pro-anorexia content is more highly favored and rated by its viewers. Efforts should focus on raising awareness, particularly among teenagers, about the trustworthiness of online information about beauty and healthy lifestyles. Health authorities producing videos to combat anorexia should consider involving celebrities and models to reach a wider audience. More research is needed to study

  1. Misleading health-related information promoted through video-based social media: anorexia on YouTube.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Fernandez-Luque, Luis; Jian, Wen-Shan; Li, Yu-Chuan; Crain, Steven; Hsu, Min-Huei; Wang, Yao-Chin; Khandregzen, Dorjsuren; Chuluunbaatar, Enkhzaya; Nguyen, Phung Anh; Liou, Der-Ming

    2013-02-13

    The amount of information being uploaded onto social video platforms, such as YouTube, Vimeo, and Veoh, continues to spiral, making it increasingly difficult to discern reliable health information from misleading content. There are thousands of YouTube videos promoting misleading information about anorexia (eg, anorexia as a healthy lifestyle). The aim of this study was to investigate anorexia-related misinformation disseminated through YouTube videos. We retrieved YouTube videos related to anorexia using the keywords anorexia, anorexia nervosa, proana, and thinspo on October 10, 2011.Three doctors reviewed 140 videos with approximately 11 hours of video content, classifying them as informative, pro-anorexia, or others. By informative we mean content describing the health consequences of anorexia and advice on how to recover from it; by pro-anorexia we mean videos promoting anorexia as a fashion, a source of beauty, and that share tips and methods for becoming and remaining anorexic. The 40 most-viewed videos (20 informative and 20 pro-anorexia videos) were assessed to gauge viewer behavior. The interrater agreement of classification was moderate (Fleiss' kappa=0.5), with 29.3% (n=41) being rated as pro-anorexia, 55.7% (n=78) as informative, and 15.0% (n=21) as others. Pro-anorexia videos were favored 3 times more than informative videos (odds ratio [OR] 3.3, 95% CI 3.3-3.4, Panorexia information was identified in 29.3% of anorexia-related videos. Pro-anorexia videos are less common than informative videos; however, in proportional terms, pro-anorexia content is more highly favored and rated by its viewers. Efforts should focus on raising awareness, particularly among teenagers, about the trustworthiness of online information about beauty and healthy lifestyles. Health authorities producing videos to combat anorexia should consider involving celebrities and models to reach a wider audience. More research is needed to study the characteristics of pro-anorexia videos

  2. Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Jespersen, Jørgen

    2014-01-01

    Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C......-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards...... regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us...

  3. Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

    2018-02-01

    Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

  4. Assessing the predictive power of the multifactorial models of the bankruptcy risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Bărbuţă-Mişu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The bankruptcy prediction of the enterprises is a great interest issue, which has continued such attention to researchers and specialists for several decades. This paper evaluates the risk of bankruptcy of a sample of 20 enterprises acting in the construction sector in Romania, in 2008. The bankruptcy risk is evaluated using 4 models: 2 models very well-known at the international level - Altman model (1968 with 5 variables and Conan & Holder model (1979 - and 2 models created taking into account the specificity of the Romanian business environment: the A model (2000 and the model of determining the financial performance developed especially for features of the enterprises acting in the construction sector (2008. The aim of this paper is to find a link or match between predictive power of the most used multi-factorial models of bankruptcy risk, taking into account the period in which they were created, the specific characteristics of the economy and industry.

  5. AHEAD OF THE GAME: ADOPTING 21ST CENTURY LEARNING APPROACHES SUPPORTED BY VIDEO-BASED WEB CONFERENCING TECHNOLOGY IN A ROMANIAN PROFESSIONAL TRAINING MILITARY CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula CHARBONNEAU-GOWDY

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent major political uprisings are indicating the extent to which social learning Web 2.0 technologies, can infl uence change in informal learning settings. Recognition and a discussion of the potential of that infl uence in formal learning settings have only just begun. This article describes a study of an international distance learning project in 2004, using a variety of Web 2.0 technologies, including video-based web conferencing, that sought to initiate and respond to this urgent need for dialogue in the research. Self-selected participants took part in a 5-week English as a foreign language (EFL program, a joint NATO sponsored Canadian and Romanian Ministry of Defense-supported initiative. Clear evidence of linguistic knowledge construction and of important changes to participants’ learner identities, indicates the power of these technologies to support the kind of learning that can lead to the development of global citizens and the skills they will increasingly require in the 21st century.

  6. A Depth Video-based Human Detection and Activity Recognition using Multi-features and Embedded Hidden Markov Models for Health Care Monitoring Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jalal

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increase in number of elderly people who are living independently needs especial care in the form of healthcare monitoring systems. Recent advancements in depth video technologies have made human activity recognition (HAR realizable for elderly healthcare applications. In this paper, a depth video-based novel method for HAR is presented using robust multi-features and embedded Hidden Markov Models (HMMs to recognize daily life activities of elderly people living alone in indoor environment such as smart homes. In the proposed HAR framework, initially, depth maps are analyzed by temporal motion identification method to segment human silhouettes from noisy background and compute depth silhouette area for each activity to track human movements in a scene. Several representative features, including invariant, multi-view differentiation and spatiotemporal body joints features were fused together to explore gradient orientation change, intensity differentiation, temporal variation and local motion of specific body parts. Then, these features are processed by the dynamics of their respective class and learned, modeled, trained and recognized with specific embedded HMM having active feature values. Furthermore, we construct a new online human activity dataset by a depth sensor to evaluate the proposed features. Our experiments on three depth datasets demonstrated that the proposed multi-features are efficient and robust over the state of the art features for human action and activity recognition.

  7. Automatic Traffic Data Collection under Varying Lighting and Temperature Conditions in Multimodal Environments: Thermal versus Visible Spectrum Video-Based Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Fu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vision-based monitoring systems using visible spectrum (regular video cameras can complement or substitute conventional sensors and provide rich positional and classification data. Although new camera technologies, including thermal video sensors, may improve the performance of digital video-based sensors, their performance under various conditions has rarely been evaluated at multimodal facilities. The purpose of this research is to integrate existing computer vision methods for automated data collection and evaluate the detection, classification, and speed measurement performance of thermal video sensors under varying lighting and temperature conditions. Thermal and regular video data was collected simultaneously under different conditions across multiple sites. Although the regular video sensor narrowly outperformed the thermal sensor during daytime, the performance of the thermal sensor is significantly better for low visibility and shadow conditions, particularly for pedestrians and cyclists. Retraining the algorithm on thermal data yielded an improvement in the global accuracy of 48%. Thermal speed measurements were consistently more accurate than for the regular video at daytime and nighttime. Thermal video is insensitive to lighting interference and pavement temperature, solves issues associated with visible light cameras for traffic data collection, and offers other benefits such as privacy, insensitivity to glare, storage space, and lower processing requirements.

  8. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  9. Assessment of dual tasking has no clinical value for fall prediction in Parkinson’s disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aner Weiss; Rianne Esselink; Alexander Geurts; Roy Kessels; Bastiaan Bloem; Katrijn Smulders

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the value of dual-task performance for the prediction of falls inpatients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). Two hundred sixty three patients with PD (H&Y 1–3, 65.2 ± 7.9 years)walked two times along a 10-m trajectory, both under single-task and dual-task

  10. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  11. Measurement and Predition Errors in Body Composition Assessment and the Search for the Perfect Prediction Equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katch, Frank I.; Katch, Victor L.

    1980-01-01

    Sources of error in body composition assessment by laboratory and field methods can be found in hydrostatic weighing, residual air volume, skinfolds, and circumferences. Statistical analysis can and should be used in the measurement of body composition. (CJ)

  12. Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poluyan, L. V.; Syutkina, E. V.; Guryev, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The comparative analysis of key features of the software systems TOXI+Risk and ALOHA is presented. The authors made a comparison of domestic (TOXI+Risk) and foreign (ALOHA) software systems allowing to give the quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in potentially hazardous objects of the oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. Both software systems use different mathematical models for assessment of the release rate of a chemically hazardous substance from a storage tank and its evaporation. The comparison of the accuracy of definition of impact areas made by both software systems to verify the examples shows good convergence of both products. The analysis results showed that the ALOHA software can be actively used for forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on the territories of municipalities.

  13. Trajectories of Psychosocial Problems in Adolescents Predicted by Findings From Early Well-Child Assessments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jaspers, Merlijne; de Winter, Anea F; Huisman, Mark; Verhulst, Frank C; Ormel, Johan; Stewart, Roy E; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To describe trajectories of emotional and behavioral problems in adolescents and to identify early indicators of these trajectories using data from routine well-child assessments at ages 0-4 years. Methods...

  14. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  15. Predicting gene function through systematic analysis and quality assessment of high-throughput data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmeren, Patrick; Kockelkorn, Thessa T J P; Bijma, Theo; Donders, Rogier; Holstege, Frank C P

    2005-04-15

    Determining gene function is an important challenge arising from the availability of whole genome sequences. Until recently, approaches based on sequence homology were the only high-throughput method for predicting gene function. Use of high-throughput generated experimental data sets for determining gene function has been limited for several reasons. Here a new approach is presented for integration of high-throughput data sets, leading to prediction of function based on relationships supported by multiple types and sources of data. This is achieved with a database containing 125 different high-throughput data sets describing phenotypes, cellular localizations, protein interactions and mRNA expression levels from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, using a bit-vector representation and information content-based ranking. The approach takes characteristic and qualitative differences between the data sets into account, is highly flexible, efficient and scalable. Database queries result in predictions for 543 uncharacterized genes, based on multiple functional relationships each supported by at least three types of experimental data. Some of these are experimentally verified, further demonstrating their reliability. The results also generate insights into the relative merits of different data types and provide a coherent framework for functional genomic datamining. Free availability over the Internet. f.c.p.holstege@med.uu.nl http://www.genomics.med.uu.nl/pub/pk/comb_gen_network.

  16. Prediction of pressure ulcer development in hospitalized patients: a tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoonhoven, L; Grobbee, D E; Donders, A R T; Algra, A; Grypdonck, M H; Bousema, M T; Schrijvers, A J P; Buskens, E

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To identify independent predictors for development of pressure ulcers in hospitalized patients and to develop a simple prediction rule for pressure ulcer development. Design The Prevention and Pressure Ulcer Risk Score Evaluation (prePURSE) study is a prospective cohort study in which patients are followed up once a week until pressure ulcer occurrence, discharge from hospital, or length of stay over 12 weeks. Data were collected between January 1999 and June 2000. Setting Two large hospitals in the Netherlands. Participants Adult patients admitted to the surgical, internal, neurological and geriatric wards for more than 5 days were eligible. A consecutive sample of 1536 patients was visited, 1431 (93%) of whom agreed to participate. Complete follow up data were available for 1229 (80%) patients. Main outcome measures Occurrence of a pressure ulcer grade 2 or worse during admission to hospital. Results Independent predictors of pressure ulcers were age, weight at admission, abnormal appearance of the skin, friction and shear, and planned surgery in coming week. The area under the curve of the final prediction rule was 0.70 after bootstrapping. At a cut off score of 20, 42% of the patient weeks were identified as at risk for pressure ulcer development, thus correctly identifying 70% of the patient weeks in which a pressure ulcer occurred. Conclusion A simple clinical prediction rule based on five patient characteristics may help to identify patients at increased risk for pressure ulcer development and in need of preventive measures. PMID:16456213

  17. Assessment and prediction of thoracic gas volume in pregnant women: an evaluation in relation to body composition assessment using air displacement plethysmography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksson, Pontus; Löf, Marie; Forsum, Elisabet

    2013-01-14

    Assessment of body fat (BF) in pregnant women is important when investigating the relationship between maternal nutrition and offspring health. Convenient and accurate body composition methods applicable during pregnancy are therefore needed. Air displacement plethysmography, as applied in Bod Pod, represents such a method since it can assess body volume (BV) which, in combination with body weight, can be used to calculate body density and body composition. However, BV must be corrected for the thoracic gas volume (TGV) of the subject. In non-pregnant women, TGV may be predicted using equations, based on height and age. It is unknown, however, whether these equations are valid during pregnancy. Thus, we measured the TGV of women in gestational week 32 (n 27) by means of plethysmography and predicted their TGV using equations established for non-pregnant women. Body weight and BV of the women was measured using Bod Pod. Predicted TGV was significantly (P = 0·033) higher than measured TGV by 6 % on average. Calculations in hypothetical women showed that this overestimation tended to be more pronounced in women with small TGV than in women with large TGV. The overestimation of TGV resulted in a small but significant (P = 0·043) overestimation of BF, equivalent to only 0·5 % BF, on average. A Bland-Altman analysis showed that the limits of agreement were narrow (from -1·9 to 2·9 % BF). Thus, although predicted TGV was biased and too high, the effect on BF was marginal and probably unimportant in many situations.

  18. Modification of the Feline-Ality™ Assessment and the Ability to Predict Adopted Cats’ Behaviors in Their New Homes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Emily; Gramann, Shannon; Drain, Natasha; Dolan, Emily; Slater, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary While millions of cats enter animal shelters every year, only 11.5% of pet cats are obtained from a shelter in the United States. Previous research has indicated that unrealistic expectations set by adopters can increase the chances of an adopted cat returning to the shelter. The ASPCA®’s Meet Your Match® Feline-ality™ adoption program was designed to provide adopters with accurate information about an adult cat’s future behavior in the home. This research explored the ability of the modified Feline-ality™ assessment when done one day after the cat entered the shelter. Our modified version was predictive of feline behavior post adoption. Abstract It is estimated that 2.5 million cats enter animal shelters in the United States every year and as few as 20% leave the shelter alive. Of those adopted, the greatest risk to post-adoption human animal bond is unrealistic expectations set by the adopter. The ASPCA®’s Meet Your Match® Feline-ality™ adoption program was developed to provide adopters with an accurate assessment of an adult cat’s future behavior in the home. However, the original Feline-ality™ required a three-day hold time to collect cat behaviors on a data card, which was challenging for some shelters. This research involved creating a survey to determine in-home feline behavior post adoption and explored the predictive ability of the in-shelter assessment without the data card. Our results show that the original Feline-ality™ assessment and our modified version were predictive of feline behavior post adoption. Our modified version also decreased hold time for cats to one day. Shelters interested in increasing cat adoptions, decreasing length of stay and improving the adoption experience can now implement the modified version for future feline adoption success. PMID:26479138

  19. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  20. Effects of Mathematics Content Knowledge on Pre-School Teachers' Performance: A Video-Based Assessment of Perception and Planning Abilities in Informal Learning Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunekacke, Simone; Jenßen, Lars; Blömeke, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    This study addresses the relation of pre-school teachers' mathematics content knowledge and their performance--how they perceive mathematical learning situations and whether they are able to plan adequate actions that foster children's learning--in the informal settings of pre-schools. It thus addresses a serious gap in teacher research that has…

  1. Euler Technology Assessment for Preliminary Aircraft Design: Compressibility Predictions by Employing the Cartesian Unstructured Grid SPLITFLOW Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Dennis B.; Karman, Steve L., Jr.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the second phase of the Euler Technology Assessment program was to evaluate the ability of Euler computational fluid dynamics codes to predict compressible flow effects over a generic fighter wind tunnel model. This portion of the study was conducted by Lockheed Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems, using an in-house Cartesian-grid code called SPLITFLOW. The Cartesian grid technique offers several advantages, including ease of volume grid generation and reduced number of cells compared to other grid schemes. SPLITFLOW also includes grid adaption of the volume grid during the solution to resolve high-gradient regions. The SPLITFLOW code predictions of configuration forces and moments are shown to be adequate for preliminary design, including predictions of sideslip effects and the effects of geometry variations at low and high angles-of-attack. The transonic pressure prediction capabilities of SPLITFLOW are shown to be improved over subsonic comparisons. The time required to generate the results from initial surface data is on the order of several hours, including grid generation, which is compatible with the needs of the design environment.

  2. Optimal escape theory predicts escape behaviors beyond flight initiation distance: risk assessment and escape by striped plateau lizards Sceloporus virgatus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William E. COOPER Jr.

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Escape theory predicts that flight initiation distance (FID = distance between predator and prey when escape begins is longer when risk is greater and shorter when escape is more costly. A few tests suggest that escape theory applies to distance fled. Escape models have not addressed stochastic variables, such as probability of fleeing and of entering refuge, but their economic logic might be applicable. Experiments on several risk factors in the lizard Sceloporus virgatus confirmed all predictions for the above escape variables. FID was greater when approach was faster and more direct, for lizards on ground than on trees, for lizards rarely exposed to humans, for the second of two approaches, and when the predator turned toward lizards rather than away. Lizards fled further during rapid and second consecutive approaches. They were more likely to flee when approached directly, when a predator turned toward them, and during second approaches. They were more likely to enter refuge when approached rapidly. A novel finding is that perch height in trees was unrelated to FID because lizards escaped by moving out of sight, then moving up or down unpredictably. These findings add to a growing body of evidence supporting predictions of escape theory for FID and distance fled. They show that two probabilistic aspects of escape are predictable based on relative predation risk levels. Because individuals differ in boldness, the assessed optimal FID and threshold risks for fleeing and entering refuge are exceeded for an increasing proportion of individuals as risk increases.

  3. Assessment of the possibility of using data mining methods to predict sorption isotherms of selected organic compounds on activated carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dąbek, Lidia; Szeląg, Bartosz; Picheta-Oleś, Anna

    2017-11-01

    The paper analyses the use of four data mining methods (Support Vector Machines. Cascade Neural Networks. Random Forests and Boosted Trees) to predict sorption on activated carbons. The input data for statistical models included the activated carbon parameters, organic substances and equilibrium concentrations in the solution. The assessment of the predictive abilities of the developed models was made with the use of mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). The computations proved that methods of data mining considered in the study can be applied to predict sorption of selected organic compounds 011 activated carbon. The lowest values of sorption prediction errors were obtained with the Cascade Neural Networks method (MAE = 1.23 g/g; MAPE = 7.90% and RMSE = 1.81 g/g), while the highest error values were produced by the Boosted Trees method (MAE=14.31 g/g; MAPE = 39.43% and RMSE = 27.76 g/g).

  4. Human Reliability Assessments: Using the Past (Shuttle) to Predict the Future (Orion)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana L.; Bigler, Mark A.

    2017-01-01

    NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) uses two human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies. The first is a simplified method which is based on how much time is available to complete the action, with consideration included for environmental and personal factors that could influence the human's reliability. This method is expected to provide a conservative value or placeholder as a preliminary estimate. This preliminary estimate or screening value is used to determine which placeholder needs a more detailed assessment. The second methodology is used to develop a more detailed human reliability assessment on the performance of critical human actions. This assessment needs to consider more than the time available, this would include factors such as: the importance of the action, the context, environmental factors, potential human stresses, previous experience, training, physical design interfaces, available procedures/checklists and internal human stresses. The more detailed assessment is expected to be more realistic than that based primarily on time available. When performing an HRA on a system or process that has an operational history, we have information specific to the task based on this history and experience. In the case of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that is based on a new design and has no operational history, providing a "reasonable" assessment of potential crew actions becomes more challenging. To determine what is expected of future operational parameters, the experience from individuals who had relevant experience and were familiar with the system and process previously implemented by NASA was used to provide the "best" available data. Personnel from Flight Operations, Flight Directors, Launch Test Directors, Control Room Console Operators, and Astronauts were all interviewed to provide a comprehensive picture of previous NASA operations. Verification of the

  5. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) II: Ensemble combinations and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viney, N.R.; Bormann, H.; Breuer, L.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.W.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions. Both the single-model ensembles and the multi-model ensembles are shown to give predictions that are generally superior to those of their respective constituent models, both during a 7-year calibration period and a 9-year validation period. This occurs despite a considerable disparity in performance of the individual models. Even the weakest of models is shown to contribute useful information to the ensembles they are part of. The best model combination methods are a trimmed mean (constructed using the central four or six predictions each day) and a weighted mean ensemble (with weights calculated from calibration performance) that places relatively large weights on the better performing models. Conditional ensembles, in which separate model weights are used in different system states (e.g. summer and winter, high and low flows) generally yield little improvement over the weighted mean ensemble. However a conditional ensemble that discriminates between rising and receding flows shows moderate improvement. An analysis of ensemble predictions shows that the best ensembles are not necessarily those containing the best individual models. Conversely, it appears that some models that predict well individually do not necessarily combine well with other models in

  6. An Approach for Assessing the Signature Quality of Various Chemical Assays when Predicting the Culture Media Used to Grow Microorganisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, Aimee E.; Sego, Landon H.; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Kreuzer, Helen W.; Anderson, Richard M.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Tardiff, Mark F.; Corley, Courtney D.

    2013-02-01

    We demonstrate an approach for assessing the quality of a signature system designed to predict the culture medium used to grow a microorganism. The system was comprised of four chemical assays designed to identify various ingredients that could be used to produce the culture medium. The analytical measurements resulting from any combination of these four assays can be used in a Bayesian network to predict the probabilities that the microorganism was grown using one of eleven culture media. We evaluated combinations of the signature system by removing one or more of the assays from the Bayes network. We measured and compared the quality of the various Bayes nets in terms of fidelity, cost, risk, and utility, a method we refer to as Signature Quality Metrics