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Sample records for video-based prediction assessments

  1. Direct Observation vs. Video-Based Assessment in Flexible Cystoscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dagnaes-Hansen, Julia; Mahmood, Oria; Bube, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    .86. Interrater reliability was 0.74 for single measure and 0.85 for average measures. A hawk-dove effect was seen between the 2 raters. Direct observer bias was detected when comparing direct observer scores to the assessment by an independent video-rater (p

  2. Toward feasible, valid, and reliable video-based assessments of technical surgical skills in the operating room

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggarwal, R.; Grantcharov, T.; Moorthy, K.

    2008-01-01

    .72). Conclusions: Video-based technical skills evaluation in the operating room is feasible, valid and reliable. Global rating scales hold promise for summative assessment, though further work is necessary to elucidate the value of procedural rating scales Udgivelsesdato: 2008/2......Objective: To determine the feasibility, validity, inter-rater, and intertest reliability of 4 previously published video-based rating scales, for technical skills assessment on a benchmark laparoscopic procedure. Summary Background Data: Assessment of technical skills is crucial...... to the demonstration and maintenance of competent healthcare practitioners. Traditional assessment methods are prone to subjectivity through a lack of proven validity and reliability. Methods: Nineteen surgeons (6 novice and 13 experienced) performed a median of 2 laparoscopic cholecystectomies each (range 1-5) on 53...

  3. Recommendations to enhance constructivist-based learning in Interprofessional Education using video-based self-assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahmen, Uta; Schulze, Christine; Schindler, Claudia; Wick, Katharina; Schwartze, Dominique; Veit, Andrea; Smolenski, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Interprofessional collaboration is crucial to the optimization of patient care. This paper aims to provide recommendations for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with the core element of video-based self-assessment. A course for students in medicine, physiotherapy, and nursing was developed through interprofessional, cross-institutional collaboration. The course consisted of drawing on prior knowledge about the work done by each professional group in regard to a specific clinical scenario and an interprofessional treatment situation, filming a role play of this treatment situation, and a structured self-assessment of the role play. We evaluated the preparation and implementation of the three courses conducted thus far. Concrete recommendations for implementation were made based on evaluation sheets (students), open discussions (tutors, instructors, institutions) and recorded meeting minutes (project managers, project participants). Basic recommendations for implementation include: selecting appropriate criteria for self-assessment and a simulated situation that offers members of each professional group an equal opportunity to act in the role play. In terms of administrative implementation we recommend early coordination among the professions and educational institutions regarding the target groups, scheduling and attendance policy to ensure participant recruitment across all professions. Procedural planning should include developing teaching materials, such as the case vignette and treatment scenario, and providing technical equipment that can be operated intuitively in order to ensure efficient recording. These recommendations serve as an aid for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with video-based self-assessment at its core.

  4. Recommendations to enhance constructivist-based learning in Interprofessional Education using video-based self-assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahmen, Uta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Interprofessional collaboration is crucial to the optimization of patient care.Aim: This paper aims to provide recommendations for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with the core element of video-based self-assessment.Methodology: A course for students in medicine, physiotherapy, and nursing was developed through interprofessional, cross-institutional collaboration. The course consisted of We evaluated the preparation and implementation of the three courses conducted thus far. Concrete recommendations for implementation were made based on evaluation sheets (students, open discussions (tutors, instructors, institutions and recorded meeting minutes (project managers, project participants.Results: Basic recommendations for implementation include: selecting appropriate criteria for self-assessment and a simulated situation that offers members of each professional group an equal opportunity to act in the role play. In terms of administrative implementation we recommend early coordination among the professions and educational institutions regarding the target groups, scheduling and attendance policy to ensure participant recruitment across all professions. Procedural planning should include developing teaching materials, such as the case vignette and treatment scenario, and providing technical equipment that can be operated intuitively in order to ensure efficient recording.Conclusion: These recommendations serve as an aid for implementing an innovative constructivist educational concept with video-based self-assessment at its core.

  5. Video-based intervention for children with autism: towards improved assessment of pre-requisite imitation skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayner, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    To explore the relationship between responses to imitation assessment and video-based intervention (VBI) in children with autism. Interview- and observation-based imitation assessments were conducted for five boys with autism prior to VBI across three studies. In two of the three studies, the boys' imitative responses to videos with an animated model and a human model were also compared. Participants who were assessed to have strong imitation skills were also those who responded more positively to VBI. No clear differences were reported in the boys' responses to the equivalent videos with the animated model and the human model. The level of imitation skills required for successful VBI is relative to the target behaviour. Revision of existing imitation assessment measures, as well as development and validation of more comprehensive measures is warranted for use in conjunction with VBI.

  6. Validity and applicability of a video-based animated tool to assess mobility in elderly Latin American populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Ricardo Oliveira; Oliveira, Bruna Silva; Alvarado, Beatriz Eugenia; Curcio, Carmen Lucia; Rejeski, W Jack; Marsh, Anthony P; Ip, Edward H; Barnard, Ryan T; Guralnik, Jack M; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria

    2014-10-01

    To assess the reliability and the validity of Portuguese- and Spanish-translated versions of the video-based short-form Mobility Assessment Tool in assessing self-reported mobility, and to provide evidence for the applicability of these videos in elderly Latin American populations as a complement to physical performance measures. The sample consisted of 300 elderly participants (150 from Brazil, 150 from Colombia) recruited at neighborhood social centers. Mobility was assessed with the Mobility Assessment Tool, and compared with the Short Physical Performance Battery score and self-reported functional limitations. Reliability was calculated using intraclass correlation coefficients. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess associations among mobility assessment tools and health, and sociodemographic variables. A significant gradient of increasing Mobility Assessment Tool score with better physical function was observed for both self-reported and objective measures, and in each city. Associations between self-reported mobility and health were strong, and significant. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in women at both sites. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the Mobility Assessment Tool were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.97) in Brazil and 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.91) in Colombia. Mobility Assessment Tool scores were lower in Manizales than in Natal after adjustment by Short Physical Performance Battery, self-rated health and sex. These results provide evidence for high reliability and good validity of the Mobility Assessment Tool in its Spanish and Portuguese versions used in Latin American populations. In addition, the Mobility Assessment Tool can detect mobility differences related to environmental features that cannot be captured by objective performance measures. © 2013 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  7. A cadaveric procedural anatomy simulation course improves video-based assessment of operative performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Gaurav; Aycart, Mario A; O'Mara, Lynne; Havens, Joaquim; Nehs, Matthew; Shimizu, Naomi; Smink, Douglas S; Gravereaux, Edwin; Gates, Jonathan D; Askari, Reza

    2018-03-01

    Inadequate anatomic knowledge has been cited as a major contributor to declining surgical resident operative competence. We analyzed the impact of a comprehensive, procedurally oriented cadaveric procedural anatomy dissection laboratory on the operative performance of surgery residents, hypothesizing that trainees' performance of surgical procedures would improve after such a dissection course. Midlevel general surgery residents (n = 9) participated in an 8 wk, 16-h surgery faculty-led procedurally oriented cadaver simulation course. Both before and after completion of the course, residents participated in a practical examination, in which they were randomized to perform one of nine Surgical Council on Resident Education-designated "essential" procedures. The procedures were recorded using wearable video technology. Videos were deidentified before evaluation by six faculty raters blinded to examinee and whether performances occurred before or after an examinee had taken the course. Raters used the validated Operative Performance Rating System and Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill scales. After the course residents had higher procedure-specific scores (median, 4.0 versus 2.4, P 4.0 versus 3.0, P = 0.006), respect for tissue (4.0 versus 3.0, P = 0.0004), time and motion (3.0 versus 2.0, P = 0.0007), operation flow (3.0 versus 2.0, P = 0.0005), procedural knowledge (4.0 versus 2.0, P = 0.0001), and overall performance scores (4.0 versus 2.0, P < 0.0001). Operative Performance Rating System and Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill scales averaged by number of items in each were also higher (3.2 versus 2.0, P = 0.0002 and 3.1 versus 2.2, P = 0.002, respectively). A cadaveric procedural anatomy simulation course covering a broad range of open general surgery procedures was associated with significant improvements in trainees' operative performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Using Video-Based Self-Assessment to Develop Effective Conferencing Skills

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia Knoll

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Conferencing is the commonly used vehicle for improving instruction by providing feedback to teachers. However, it is the nature of the feedback given to the teacher and how it is delivered, using effective conferencing strategies and techniques, that will actually involve the teacher in understanding, accepting, agreeing and initiating changes, or make him angry and hostile. This article focuses on defining effective conferencing strategies, and the process that was used to help program participants preparing for leadership certification to practice these strategies in a clinical setting. The leadership program at Hunter College prepares educators for certification as school building and district leaders. Supervision of instruction for student achievement is considered the heart of the work of the school and district leader. Therefore a major focus for program participants seeking leadership certification is on content and practice for conferencing effectiveness. Participants learn and practice these skills in simulations, and then implement them by trying out their abilities in the field in real observation and conferencing experiences with a practicing classroom teacher. Participants video-tape themselves conducing conferences with their practicing classroom teacher clients following an observation. They then view the video of their conference performance and self-assess their conferencing skills by electronically recording the behaviors they observe using a set of criteria and design a growth plan for the further development of their conferencing skills.

  9. Video-based rendering

    CERN Document Server

    Magnor, Marcus A

    2005-01-01

    Driven by consumer-market applications that enjoy steadily increasing economic importance, graphics hardware and rendering algorithms are a central focus of computer graphics research. Video-based rendering is an approach that aims to overcome the current bottleneck in the time-consuming modeling process and has applications in areas such as computer games, special effects, and interactive TV. This book offers an in-depth introduction to video-based rendering, a rapidly developing new interdisciplinary topic employing techniques from computer graphics, computer vision, and telecommunication en

  10. Cultivating Opportunity Amid Crisis: Using Video-Based Assessment and Feedback to Support Parent-Child Relationships in Child Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Carla C.; Stacks, Ann M.; Rodgers, Andrea; Fox, Kate

    2017-01-01

    Infants, toddlers, and young children have unique needs when separated from their primary caregivers because of child abuse and neglect. Parents of these children often have their own histories of abuse and neglect and can benefit from assessments and interventions that bear in mind the effect caregiving histories have on present parenting. This…

  11. Video-based lectures: An emerging paradigm for teaching human ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Video-based teaching material is a rich and powerful medium being used in computer assisted learning. This paper aimed to assess the learning outcomes and student nurses' acceptance and satisfaction with the video-based lectures versus the traditional method of teaching human anatomy and physiology courses.

  12. Video-based lectures: An emerging paradigm for teaching human anatomy and physiology to student nurses

    OpenAIRE

    Rabab El-Sayed Hassan El-Sayed; Samar El-Hoseiny Abd El-Raouf El-Sayed

    2013-01-01

    Video-based teaching material is a rich and powerful medium being used in computer assisted learning. This paper aimed to assess the learning outcomes and student nurses’ acceptance and satisfaction with the video-based lectures versus the traditional method of teaching human anatomy and physiology courses. Data were collected from 27 students in a Bachelor of Nursing program and experimental control was achieved using an alternating-treatments design. Overall, students experienced 10 lecture...

  13. Video-based lectures: An emerging paradigm for teaching human anatomy and physiology to student nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rabab El-Sayed Hassan El-Sayed

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Video-based teaching material is a rich and powerful medium being used in computer assisted learning. This paper aimed to assess the learning outcomes and student nurses’ acceptance and satisfaction with the video-based lectures versus the traditional method of teaching human anatomy and physiology courses. Data were collected from 27 students in a Bachelor of Nursing program and experimental control was achieved using an alternating-treatments design. Overall, students experienced 10 lectures, which delivered by the teacher as either video-based or PowerPoint-based lectures. Results revealed that video-based lectures offer more successes and reduce failures in the immediate and follow-up measures as compared with the traditional method of teaching human anatomy and physiology that was based on printout illustrations, but these differences were not statistically significant. Moreover, nurse students appeared positive about their learning experiences, as they rated highly all the items assessing their acceptance and satisfaction with the video-based lectures. KEYWORDS: Video-based lecture, Traditional, Print-based illustration

  14. Video-based noncooperative iris image segmentation.

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    Du, Yingzi; Arslanturk, Emrah; Zhou, Zhi; Belcher, Craig

    2011-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a video-based noncooperative iris image segmentation scheme that incorporates a quality filter to quickly eliminate images without an eye, employs a coarse-to-fine segmentation scheme to improve the overall efficiency, uses a direct least squares fitting of ellipses method to model the deformed pupil and limbic boundaries, and develops a window gradient-based method to remove noise in the iris region. A remote iris acquisition system is set up to collect noncooperative iris video images. An objective method is used to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of the segmentation results. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. The proposed method would make noncooperative iris recognition or iris surveillance possible.

  15. Feedback in formative OSCEs: comparison between direct observation and video-based formats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod Perron, Noëlle; Louis-Simonet, Martine; Cerutti, Bernard; Pfarrwaller, Eva; Sommer, Johanna; Nendaz, Mathieu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Medical students at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland, have the opportunity to practice clinical skills with simulated patients during formative sessions in preparation for clerkships. These sessions are given in two formats: 1) direct observation of an encounter followed by verbal feedback (direct feedback) and 2) subsequent review of the videotaped encounter by both student and supervisor (video-based feedback). The aim of the study was to evaluate whether content and process of feedback differed between both formats. Methods In 2013, all second- and third-year medical students and clinical supervisors involved in formative sessions were asked to take part in the study. A sample of audiotaped feedback sessions involving supervisors who gave feedback in both formats were analyzed (content and process of the feedback) using a 21-item feedback scale. Results Forty-eight audiotaped feedback sessions involving 12 supervisors were analyzed (2 direct and 2 video-based sessions per supervisor). When adjusted for the length of feedback, there were significant differences in terms of content and process between both formats; the number of communication skills and clinical reasoning items addressed were higher in the video-based format (11.29 vs. 7.71, p=0.002 and 3.71 vs. 2.04, p=0.010, respectively). Supervisors engaged students more actively during the video-based sessions than during direct feedback sessions (self-assessment: 4.00 vs. 3.17, p=0.007; active problem-solving: 3.92 vs. 3.42, p=0.009). Students made similar observations and tended to consider that the video feedback was more useful for improving some clinical skills. Conclusion Video-based feedback facilitates discussion of clinical reasoning, communication, and professionalism issues while at the same time actively engaging students. Different time and conceptual frameworks may explain observed differences. The choice of feedback format should depend on the educational

  16. Feedback in formative OSCEs: comparison between direct observation and video-based formats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noëlle Junod Perron

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Medical students at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland, have the opportunity to practice clinical skills with simulated patients during formative sessions in preparation for clerkships. These sessions are given in two formats: 1 direct observation of an encounter followed by verbal feedback (direct feedback and 2 subsequent review of the videotaped encounter by both student and supervisor (video-based feedback. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether content and process of feedback differed between both formats. Methods: In 2013, all second- and third-year medical students and clinical supervisors involved in formative sessions were asked to take part in the study. A sample of audiotaped feedback sessions involving supervisors who gave feedback in both formats were analyzed (content and process of the feedback using a 21-item feedback scale. Results: Forty-eight audiotaped feedback sessions involving 12 supervisors were analyzed (2 direct and 2 video-based sessions per supervisor. When adjusted for the length of feedback, there were significant differences in terms of content and process between both formats; the number of communication skills and clinical reasoning items addressed were higher in the video-based format (11.29 vs. 7.71, p=0.002 and 3.71 vs. 2.04, p=0.010, respectively. Supervisors engaged students more actively during the video-based sessions than during direct feedback sessions (self-assessment: 4.00 vs. 3.17, p=0.007; active problem-solving: 3.92 vs. 3.42, p=0.009. Students made similar observations and tended to consider that the video feedback was more useful for improving some clinical skills. Conclusion: Video-based feedback facilitates discussion of clinical reasoning, communication, and professionalism issues while at the same time actively engaging students. Different time and conceptual frameworks may explain observed differences. The choice of feedback format should depend on

  17. Video-Based Surgical Learning: Improving Trainee Education and Preparation for Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Paulo; Carvalho, Nuno; Carvalho-Dias, Emanuel; João Costa, Manuel; Correia-Pinto, Jorge; Lima, Estevão

    2017-10-11

    Since the end of the XIX century, teaching of surgery has remained practically unaltered until now. With the dawn of video-assisted laparoscopy, surgery has faced new technical and learning challenges. Due to technological advances, from Internet access to portable electronic devices, the use of online resources is part of the educational armamentarium. In this respect, videos have already proven to be effective and useful, however the best way to benefit from these tools is still not clearly defined. To assess the importance of video-based learning, using an electronic questionnaire applied to residents and specialists of different surgical fields. Importance of video-based learning was assessed in a sample of 141 subjects, using a questionnaire distributed by a GoogleDoc online form. We found that 98.6% of the respondents have already used videos to prepare for surgery. When comparing video sources by formation status, residents were found to use Youtube significantly more often than specialists (p learning is currently a hallmark of surgical preparation among residents and specialists working in Portugal. Based on these findings we believe that the creation of quality and scientifically accurate videos, and subsequent compilation in available video-libraries appears to be the future landscape for video-based learning. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Water resources assessment and prediction in China

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    W. Guangsheng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii annual water resources assessment, and (iii industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

  19. Complementing Operating Room Teaching With Video-Based Coaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yue-Yung; Mazer, Laura M; Yule, Steven J; Arriaga, Alexander F; Greenberg, Caprice C; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Gawande, Atul A; Smink, Douglas S

    2017-04-01

    Surgical expertise demands technical and nontechnical skills. Traditionally, surgical trainees acquired these skills in the operating room; however, operative time for residents has decreased with duty hour restrictions. As in other professions, video analysis may help maximize the learning experience. To develop and evaluate a postoperative video-based coaching intervention for residents. In this mixed methods analysis, 10 senior (postgraduate year 4 and 5) residents were videorecorded operating with an attending surgeon at an academic tertiary care hospital. Each video formed the basis of a 1-hour one-on-one coaching session conducted by the operative attending; although a coaching framework was provided, participants determined the specific content collaboratively. Teaching points were identified in the operating room and the video-based coaching sessions; iterative inductive coding, followed by thematic analysis, was performed. Teaching points made in the operating room were compared with those in the video-based coaching sessions with respect to initiator, content, and teaching technique, adjusting for time. Among 10 cases, surgeons made more teaching points per unit time (63.0 vs 102.7 per hour) while coaching. Teaching in the video-based coaching sessions was more resident centered; attendings were more inquisitive about residents' learning needs (3.30 vs 0.28, P = .04), and residents took more initiative to direct their education (27% [198 of 729 teaching points] vs 17% [331 of 1977 teaching points], P based coaching is a novel and feasible modality for supplementing intraoperative learning. Objective evaluation demonstrates that video-based coaching may be particularly useful for teaching higher-level concepts, such as decision making, and for individualizing instruction and feedback to each resident.

  20. Effects of a Short Video-Based Resident-as-Teacher Training Toolkit on Resident Teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciotti, Hope A; Freret, Taylor S; Aluko, Ashley; McKeon, Bri Anne; Haviland, Miriam J; Newman, Lori R

    2017-10-01

    To pilot a short video-based resident-as-teacher training toolkit and assess its effect on resident teaching skills in clinical settings. A video-based resident-as-teacher training toolkit was previously developed by educational experts at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School. Residents were recruited from two academic hospitals, watched two videos from the toolkit ("Clinical Teaching Skills" and "Effective Clinical Supervision"), and completed an accompanying self-study guide. A novel assessment instrument for evaluating the effect of the toolkit on teaching was created through a modified Delphi process. Before and after the intervention, residents were observed leading a clinical teaching encounter and scored using the 15-item assessment instrument. The primary outcome of interest was the change in number of skills exhibited, which was assessed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Twenty-eight residents from two academic hospitals were enrolled, and 20 (71%) completed all phases of the study. More than one third of residents who volunteered to participate reported no prior formal teacher training. After completing two training modules, residents demonstrated a significant increase in the median number of teaching skills exhibited in a clinical teaching encounter, from 7.5 (interquartile range 6.5-9.5) to 10.0 (interquartile range 9.0-11.5; P<.001). Of the 15 teaching skills assessed, there were significant improvements in asking for the learner's perspective (P=.01), providing feedback (P=.005), and encouraging questions (P=.046). Using a resident-as-teacher video-based toolkit was associated with improvements in teaching skills in residents from multiple specialties.

  1. A video-based learning activity is effective for preparing physiotherapy students for practical examinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Benjamin K; Horan, Sean A

    2013-12-01

    To examine a video-based learning activity for engaging physiotherapy students in preparation for practical examinations and determine student performance outcomes. Multi-method employing qualitative and quantitative data collection procedures. Tertiary education facility on the Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Physiotherapy students in their first year of a two-year graduate entry program. Questionnaire-based surveys and focus groups were used to examine student perceptions and satisfaction. Surveys were analysed based on the frequency of responses to closed questions made on a 5-pont Likert scale, while a thematic analysis was performed on focus group transcripts. t-Tests were used to compare student awarded marks and examiner awarded marks and evaluate student performance. Sixty-two physiotherapy students participated in the study. Mean response rate for questionnaires was 93% and eight students (13%) participated in the focus group. Participants found the video resources effective to support their learning (98% positive) and rating the video examples to be an effective learning activity (96% positive). Themes emergent from focus group responses were around improved understanding, reduced performance anxiety, and enjoyment. Students were, however, critical of the predictable nature of the example performances. Students in the current cohort supported by the video-based preparation activity exhibited greater practical examination marks than those from the previous year who were unsupported by the activity (mean 81.6 SD 8.7 vs. mean 78.1 SD 9.0, p=0.01). A video-based learning activity was effective for preparing physiotherapy students for practical examinations and conferred benefits of reduced anxiety and improved performance. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Development opportunities of emotional intelligence with reflective strategies using video-based training

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    Andrea Pokorná

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Within nursing, Emotional intelligence (EI means the ability of nurses or nursing students to understand not only their own feelings and reactions, but also, and more importantly, the feelings and reactions of the patients in their care. EI plays an important part in forming successful human relationships as a part of emotional labour. Emotional labour is important in establishing therapeutic nurse–patient relationships but carries the risk of ‘burnout’ if prolonged or intense. Objective/Purpose: The assessment of students' views and perceptions of video-based training as an opportunity to develop emotional intelligence. Material and methods: Data about the video-based training in relation to EI were collected, after the completion of the reflection assignments, using semi-structured interviews and reflective sheets (ALACT model /acronym of the basic phases and steps/ - Action, Looking back on the action, Awareness of essential aspects, Creating alternative methods of action, Trial. The study included 46 students in total (post-graduate student Intensive care nurses in two sequential academic years (2012/13 n = 15 and 2013/14 n = 31. Results: The results showed that students in both cohorts considered video as an effective tool for carrying out self-evaluations and development of EI. The usefulness of video and peer-feedback for other reflection processes differed in students' view. Most students (80% appreciated the opportunity of viewing some unusual situations from clinical practice and appropriate ways of communicating. Some students (17% stated that they needed more time for similar teaching activities. Conclusion: 80% of all the students considered video-based training generally useful for all the reflection processes and improvement of EI; however they also indicated some limitations (i.e. time consuming teaching method. The study demonstrated that student-centric pedagogies and reflective activities on student learning

  3. Video-based problems in introductory mechanics physics courses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gröber, Sebastian; Klein, Pascal; Kuhn, Jochen

    2014-01-01

    Introductory mechanics physics courses at the transition from school to university are a challenge for students. They are faced with an abrupt and necessary increase of theoretical content and requirements on their conceptual understanding of phyiscs. In order to support this transition we replaced part of the mandatory weekly theory-based paper-and-pencil problems with video analysis problems of equal content and level of difficulty. Video-based problems (VBP) are a new problem format for teaching physics from a linked sequence of theoretical and video-based experimental tasks. Experimental tasks are related to the well-known concept of video motion analysis. This introduction of an experimental part in recitations allows the establishment of theory–experiment interplay as well as connections between physical content and context fields such as nature, technique, everyday life and applied physics by conducting model-and context-related experiments. Furthermore, laws and formulas as predominantly representative forms are extended by the use of diagrams and vectors. In this paper we give general reasons for this approach, describe the structure and added values of VBP, and show that they cover a relevant part of mechanics courses at university. Emphasis is put on theory–experiment interplay as a structural added value of VBP to promote students' construction of knowledge and conceptual understanding. (paper)

  4. A randomized controlled study to evaluate the role of video-based coaching in training laparoscopic skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pritam; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Tahir, Muaaz; Pucher, Philip H; Darzi, Ara

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates whether video-based coaching can enhance laparoscopic surgical skills performance. Many professions utilize coaching to improve performance. The sports industry employs video analysis to maximize improvement from every performance. Laparoscopic novices were baseline tested and then trained on a validated virtual reality (VR) laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) curriculum. After competence, subjects were randomized on a 1:1 ratio and each performed 5 VRLCs. After each LC, intervention group subjects received video-based coaching by a surgeon, utilizing an adaptation of the GROW (Goals, Reality, Options, Wrap-up) coaching model. Control subjects viewed online surgical lectures. All subjects then performed 2 porcine LCs. Performance was assessed by blinded video review using validated global rating scales. Twenty subjects were recruited. No significant differences were observed between groups in baseline performance and in VRLC1. For each subsequent repetition, intervention subjects significantly outperformed controls on all global rating scales. Interventions outperformed controls in porcine LC1 [Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills: (20.5 vs 15.5; P = 0.011), Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills: (21.5vs 14.5; P = 0.001), and Operative Performance Rating System: (26 vs 19.5; P = 0.001)] and porcine LC2 [Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills: (28 vs 17.5; P = 0.005), Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills: (30 vs 16.5; P < 0.001), and Operative Performance Rating System: (36 vs 21; P = 0.004)]. Intervention subjects took significantly longer than controls in porcine LC1 (2920 vs 2004 seconds; P = 0.009) and LC2 (2297 vs 1683; P = 0.003). Despite equivalent exposure to practical laparoscopic skills training, video-based coaching enhanced the quality of laparoscopic surgical performance on both VR and porcine LCs, although at the expense of increased time. Video-based coaching is a feasible

  5. The role of imitation in video-based interventions for children with autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, C J; Moore, D W; Anderson, A; Dillenburger, K

    2013-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to bridge the gap between the corpus of imitation research and video-based intervention (VBI) research, and consider the impact imitation skills may be having on VBI outcomes and highlight potential areas for improving efficacy. A review of the imitation literature was conducted focusing on imitation skill deficits in children with autism followed by a critical review of the video modelling literature focusing on pre-intervention assessment of imitation skills and the impact imitation deficits may have on VBI outcomes. Children with autism have specific imitation deficits, which may impact VBI outcomes. Imitation training or procedural modifications made to videos may accommodate for these deficits. There are only six studies where VBI researchers have taken pre-intervention imitation assessments using an assortment of imitation measures. More research is required to develop a standardised multi-dimensional imitation assessment battery that can better inform VBI.

  6. Evaluation of a HDR image sensor with logarithmic response for mobile video-based applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tektonidis, Marco; Pietrzak, Mateusz; Monnin, David

    2017-10-01

    The performance of mobile video-based applications using conventional LDR (Low Dynamic Range) image sensors highly depends on the illumination conditions. As an alternative, HDR (High Dynamic Range) image sensors with logarithmic response are capable to acquire illumination-invariant HDR images in a single shot. We have implemented a complete image processing framework for a HDR sensor, including preprocessing methods (nonuniformity correction (NUC), cross-talk correction (CTC), and demosaicing) as well as tone mapping (TM). We have evaluated the HDR sensor for video-based applications w.r.t. the display of images and w.r.t. image analysis techniques. Regarding the display we have investigated the image intensity statistics over time, and regarding image analysis we assessed the number of feature correspondences between consecutive frames of temporal image sequences. For the evaluation we used HDR image data recorded from a vehicle on outdoor or combined outdoor/indoor itineraries, and we performed a comparison with corresponding conventional LDR image data.

  7. Video-based Chinese Input System via Fingertip Tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Chang Yu

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a system to detect and track fingertips online and recognize Mandarin Phonetic Symbol (MPS for user-friendly Chinese input purposes. Using fingertips and cameras to replace pens and touch panels as input devices could reduce the cost and improve the ease-of-use and comfort of computer-human interface. In the proposed framework, particle filters with enhanced appearance models are applied for robust fingertip tracking. Afterwards, MPS combination recognition is performed on the tracked fingertip trajectories using Hidden Markov Models. In the proposed system, the fingertips of the users could be robustly tracked. Also, the challenges of entering, leaving and virtual strokes caused by video-based fingertip input can be overcome. Experimental results have shown the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed work.

  8. TENTube: A Video-based Connection Tool Supporting Competence Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert A Angehrn

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The vast majority of knowledge management initiatives fail because they do not take sufficiently into account the emotional, psychological and social needs of individuals. Only if users see real value for themselves will they actively use and contribute their own knowledge to the system, and engage with other users. Connection dynamics can make this easier, and even enjoyable, by connecting people and bringing them closer through shared experiences such as playing a game together. A higher connectedness of people to other people, and to relevant knowledge assets, will motivate them to participate more actively and increase system usage. In this paper, we describe the design of TENTube, a video-based connection tool we are developing to support competence development. TENTube integrates rich profiling and network visualization and navigation with agent-enhanced game-like connection dynamics.

  9. A Review on Video-Based Human Activity Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shian-Ru Ke

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This review article surveys extensively the current progresses made toward video-based human activity recognition. Three aspects for human activity recognition are addressed including core technology, human activity recognition systems, and applications from low-level to high-level representation. In the core technology, three critical processing stages are thoroughly discussed mainly: human object segmentation, feature extraction and representation, activity detection and classification algorithms. In the human activity recognition systems, three main types are mentioned, including single person activity recognition, multiple people interaction and crowd behavior, and abnormal activity recognition. Finally the domains of applications are discussed in detail, specifically, on surveillance environments, entertainment environments and healthcare systems. Our survey, which aims to provide a comprehensive state-of-the-art review of the field, also addresses several challenges associated with these systems and applications. Moreover, in this survey, various applications are discussed in great detail, specifically, a survey on the applications in healthcare monitoring systems.

  10. Automatic Video-based Analysis of Human Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fihl, Preben

    The human motion contains valuable information in many situations and people frequently perform an unconscious analysis of the motion of other people to understand their actions, intentions, and state of mind. An automatic analysis of human motion will facilitate many applications and thus has...... received great interest from both industry and research communities. The focus of this thesis is on video-based analysis of human motion and the thesis presents work within three overall topics, namely foreground segmentation, action recognition, and human pose estimation. Foreground segmentation is often...... the first important step in the analysis of human motion. By separating foreground from background the subsequent analysis can be focused and efficient. This thesis presents a robust background subtraction method that can be initialized with foreground objects in the scene and is capable of handling...

  11. Video based object representation and classification using multiple covariance matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yurong; Liu, Quan

    2017-01-01

    Video based object recognition and classification has been widely studied in computer vision and image processing area. One main issue of this task is to develop an effective representation for video. This problem can generally be formulated as image set representation. In this paper, we present a new method called Multiple Covariance Discriminative Learning (MCDL) for image set representation and classification problem. The core idea of MCDL is to represent an image set using multiple covariance matrices with each covariance matrix representing one cluster of images. Firstly, we use the Nonnegative Matrix Factorization (NMF) method to do image clustering within each image set, and then adopt Covariance Discriminative Learning on each cluster (subset) of images. At last, we adopt KLDA and nearest neighborhood classification method for image set classification. Promising experimental results on several datasets show the effectiveness of our MCDL method.

  12. Assessment and prediction of wind turbine noise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowson, M.V.

    1993-01-01

    The significance of basic aerodynamic noise sources for wind turbine noise are assessed, using information on the aero-acoustic mechanisms of other rotors, which have been studied in depth for many years. From the analysis, areas of potential improvement in wind turbine noise prediction are defined. Suggestions are made for approaches to wind turbine noise control which separate the noise problems at cut-in from those at rated power. Some of these offer the possibility of noise reduction without unfavourable effects on performance. Based on this analysis, a new model for prediction of wind turbine noise is presented and comparisons made between prediction and experiment. The model is based on well established aeroacoustic theory and published laboratory data for the two principal sources, inflow turbulence and boundary layer trailing edge interaction. The new method gives good agreement with experiment with the case studied so far. Parametric trends and sensitivities for the model are presented. Comparisons with previous prediction methods are also given. A consequence of the new model is to put more emphasis on boundary layer trailing edge interaction as a noise source. There are prospects for reducing noise from this source detail changes to the wind turbine design. (author)

  13. Nursing students' perceptions of a video-based serious game's educational value: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnsen, Hege M; Fossum, Mariann; Vivekananda-Schmidt, Pirashanthie; Fruhling, Ann; Slettebø, Åshild

    2018-03-01

    Despite an increasing number of serious games (SGs) in nursing education, few evaluation studies specifically address their educational value in terms of face, content, and construct validity. To assess nursing students' perceptions of a video-based SG in terms of face, content, and construct validity. In addition, the study assessed perceptions of usability, individual factors, and preferences regarding future use. A pilot study was conducted. An SG prototype was implemented as part of two simulation courses in nursing education: one for home health care and one for hospital medical-surgical wards. The SG aimed to teach clinical reasoning and decision-making skills to nursing students caring for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. A total of 249second-year nursing students participated in pilot testing of the SG. A paper-based survey was used to assess students' perceptions of the SG's educational value. Overall, students from both simulation courses perceived the SG as educationally valuable and easy to use. No significant differences were found in perceptions of educational value between nursing students with previous healthcare experience versus those with none. However, significantly more students in the home healthcare simulation course indicated that the SG tested their clinical reasoning and decision-making skills. Students from both the medical-surgical and home healthcare simulation courses suggested that more video-based SGs should be developed and used in nursing education. Overall, the survey results indicate that the participants perceived the SG as educationally valuable, and that the SG has potential as an educational tool in nursing education, especially in caring for patients with chronic diseases and in home healthcare simulation. Showing a SG's educational value and user acceptance among nursing students may justify the development and application of more SGs in nursing education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  14. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  15. Video-based depression detection using local Curvelet binary patterns in pairwise orthogonal planes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampouchidou, Anastasia; Marias, Kostas; Tsiknakis, Manolis; Simos, Panagiotis; Fan Yang; Lemaitre, Guillaume; Meriaudeau, Fabrice

    2016-08-01

    Depression is an increasingly prevalent mood disorder. This is the reason why the field of computer-based depression assessment has been gaining the attention of the research community during the past couple of years. The present work proposes two algorithms for depression detection, one Frame-based and the second Video-based, both employing Curvelet transform and Local Binary Patterns. The main advantage of these methods is that they have significantly lower computational requirements, as the extracted features are of very low dimensionality. This is achieved by modifying the previously proposed algorithm which considers Three-Orthogonal-Planes, to only Pairwise-Orthogonal-Planes. Performance of the algorithms was tested on the benchmark dataset provided by the Audio/Visual Emotion Challenge 2014, with the person-specific system achieving 97.6% classification accuracy, and the person-independed one yielding promising preliminary results of 74.5% accuracy. The paper concludes with open issues, proposed solutions, and future plans.

  16. Video-based training to improve perceptual-cognitive decision-making performance of Australian football umpires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Paul; Mesagno, Christopher; Berry, Jason; Spittle, Michael; Harvey, Jack

    2018-02-01

    Decision-making is a central component of the in-game performance of Australian football umpires; however, current umpire training focuses largely on physiological development with decision-making skills development conducted via explicit lecture-style meetings with limited practice devoted to making actual decisions. Therefore, this study investigated the efficacy of a video-based training programme, aimed to provide a greater amount of contextualised visual experiences without explicit instruction, to improve decision-making skills of umpires. Australian football umpires (n = 52) were recruited from metropolitan and regional Division 1 competitions. Participants were randomly assigned to an intervention or control group and classified according to previous umpire game experience (i.e., experienced; less experienced). The intervention group completed a 12-week video-based decision-making training programme, with decision-making performance assessed at pre-training, and 1-week retention and 3-week retention periods. The control group did not complete any video-based training. Results indicated a significant Group (intervention; Control) × Test interaction (F(1, 100) = 3.98; P = 0.02, partial ῆ 2  = 0.074), with follow-up pairwise comparisons indicating significant within-group differences over time for the intervention group. In addition, decision-making performance of the less experienced umpires in the intervention group significantly improved (F(2, 40) = 5.03, P = 0.01, partial ῆ 2  = 0.201). Thus, video-based training programmes may be a viable adjunct to current training programmes to hasten decision-making development, especially for less experienced umpires.

  17. Video-based measurements for wireless capsule endoscope tracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spyrou, Evaggelos; Iakovidis, Dimitris K

    2014-01-01

    The wireless capsule endoscope is a swallowable medical device equipped with a miniature camera enabling the visual examination of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. It wirelessly transmits thousands of images to an external video recording system, while its location and orientation are being tracked approximately by external sensor arrays. In this paper we investigate a video-based approach to tracking the capsule endoscope without requiring any external equipment. The proposed method involves extraction of speeded up robust features from video frames, registration of consecutive frames based on the random sample consensus algorithm, and estimation of the displacement and rotation of interest points within these frames. The results obtained by the application of this method on wireless capsule endoscopy videos indicate its effectiveness and improved performance over the state of the art. The findings of this research pave the way for a cost-effective localization and travel distance measurement of capsule endoscopes in the GI tract, which could contribute in the planning of more accurate surgical interventions. (paper)

  18. Video-based measurements for wireless capsule endoscope tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyrou, Evaggelos; Iakovidis, Dimitris K.

    2014-01-01

    The wireless capsule endoscope is a swallowable medical device equipped with a miniature camera enabling the visual examination of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. It wirelessly transmits thousands of images to an external video recording system, while its location and orientation are being tracked approximately by external sensor arrays. In this paper we investigate a video-based approach to tracking the capsule endoscope without requiring any external equipment. The proposed method involves extraction of speeded up robust features from video frames, registration of consecutive frames based on the random sample consensus algorithm, and estimation of the displacement and rotation of interest points within these frames. The results obtained by the application of this method on wireless capsule endoscopy videos indicate its effectiveness and improved performance over the state of the art. The findings of this research pave the way for a cost-effective localization and travel distance measurement of capsule endoscopes in the GI tract, which could contribute in the planning of more accurate surgical interventions.

  19. Using Video-Based Modeling to Promote Acquisition of Fundamental Motor Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrusnikova, Iva; Rattigan, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Video-based modeling is becoming increasingly popular for teaching fundamental motor skills to children in physical education. Two frequently used video-based instructional strategies that incorporate modeling are video prompting (VP) and video modeling (VM). Both strategies have been used across multiple disciplines and populations to teach a…

  20. An investigation of a video-based patient repositioning technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Yulong; Song Yulin; Boyer, Arthur L.

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: We have investigated a video-based patient repositioning technique designed to use skin features for radiotherapy repositioning. We investigated the feasibility of the clinical application of this system by quantitative evaluation of performance characteristics of the methodology. Methods and Materials: Multiple regions of interest (ROI) were specified in the field of view of video cameras. We used a normalized correlation pattern-matching algorithm to compute the translations of each ROI pattern in a target image. These translations were compared against trial translations using a quadratic cost function for an optimization process in which the patient rotation and translational parameters were calculated. Results: A hierarchical search technique achieved high-speed (compute correlation for 128x128 ROI in 512x512 target image within 0.005 s) and subpixel spatial accuracy (as high as 0.2 pixel). By treating the observed translations as movements of points on the surfaces of a hypothetical cube, we were able to estimate accurately the actual translations and rotations of the test phantoms used in our experiments to less than 1 mm and 0.2 deg. with a standard deviation of 0.3 mm and 0.5 deg. respectively. For human volunteer cases, we estimated the translations and rotations to have an accuracy of 2 mm and 1.2 deg. Conclusion: A personal computer-based video system is suitable for routine patient setup of fractionated conformal radiotherapy. It is expected to achieve high-precision repositioning of the skin surface with high efficiency

  1. Noise aliasing in interline-video-based fluoroscopy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, H.; Cunningham, I.A.

    2002-01-01

    Video-based imaging systems for continuous (nonpulsed) x-ray fluoroscopy use a variety of video formats. Conventional video-camera systems may operate in either interlaced or progressive-scan modes, and CCD systems may operate in interline- or frame-transfer modes. A theoretical model of the image noise power spectrum corresponding to these formats is described. It is shown that with respect to frame-transfer or progressive-readout modes, interline or interlaced cameras operating in a frame-integration mode will result in a spectral shift of 25% of the total image noise power from low spatial frequencies to high. In a field-integration mode, noise power is doubled with most of the increase occurring at high spatial frequencies. The differences are due primarily to the effect of noise aliasing. In interline or interlaced formats, alternate lines are obtained with each video field resulting in a vertical sampling frequency for noise that is one half of the physical sampling frequency. The extent of noise aliasing is modified by differences in the statistical correlations between video fields in the different modes. The theoretical model is validated with experiments using an x-ray image intensifier and CCD-camera system. It is shown that different video modes affect the shape of the noise-power spectrum and therefore the detective quantum efficiency. While the effect on observer performance is not addressed, it is concluded that in order to minimize image noise at the critical mid-to-high spatial frequencies for a specified x-ray exposure, fluoroscopic systems should use only frame-transfer (CCD camera) or progressive-scan (conventional video) formats

  2. The Validity of Interpersonal Skills Assessment via Situational Judgment Tests for Predicting Academic Success and Job Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lievens, Filip; Sackett, Paul R.

    2012-01-01

    This study provides conceptual and empirical arguments why an assessment of applicants' procedural knowledge about interpersonal behavior via a video-based situational judgment test might be valid for academic and postacademic success criteria. Four cohorts of medical students (N = 723) were followed from admission to employment. Procedural…

  3. Development and Validation of a Video-Based Social Knowledge Test for Junior Commissioned Army Officers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schneider, R. J; Johnson, J. W

    2004-01-01

    Social knowledge/skill are increasingly critical to the success of U.S. Army officers. In this paper, we describe development and criterion-related validation of an experimental video-based social knowledge test...

  4. Video-based instructions for surgical hand disinfection as a replacement for conventional tuition? A randomised, blind comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Uwe; Constantinescu, Mihai A; Woermann, Ulrich; Schmitz, Felix; Schnabel, Kai

    2016-01-01

    Various different learning methods are available for planning tuition regarding the introduction to surgical hand disinfection. These learning methods should help to organise and deal with this topic. The use of a video film is an alternative to conventional tuition due to the real presentation possibilities of practical demonstration. This study examines by way of comparison which form of communication is more effective for learning and applying surgical hand disinfection for medical students in their first year of studies: video-based instruction or conventional tuition. A total of 50 first-year medical students were randomly allocated either to the "Conventional Instruction" (CI) study group or to the "Video-based Instruction" (VI) study group. The conventional instruction was carried out by an experienced nurse preceptor/nurse educator for the operating theatre who taught the preparatory measures and the actual procedure in a two-minute lesson. The second group watched a two-minute video sequence with identical content. Afterwards, both groups demonstrated practically the knowledge they had acquired at an individual practical test station. The quality (a) of the preparation and (b) of the procedure as well as (c) the quality of the results was assessed by 6 blind experts using a check list. The acceptability of the respective teaching method was also asked about using a questionnaire. The group performance did not differ either in the preparation (t=-78, pvideo-based instruction achieved a significantly better result. In response to the question as to which of the two learning methods they would prefer, the significant majority (60.4%) of students stated video instruction. In this study, the use of the video-based instruction emerged as the more effective teaching method for learning surgical hand disinfection for medical students and is preferable to conventional instruction. The video instruction is associated with a higher learning effectiveness, efficiency

  5. Assessment of protein disorder region predictions in CASP10

    KAUST Repository

    Monastyrskyy, Bohdan; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Moult, John; Tramontano, Anna; Fidelis, Krzysztof

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the assessment of disorder region predictions submitted to CASP10. The evaluation is based on the three measures tested in previous CASPs: (i) balanced accuracy, (ii) the Matthews correlation coefficient for the binary predictions, and (iii) the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of predictions using probability annotation. We also performed new analyses such as comparison of the submitted predictions with those obtained with a Naïve disorder prediction method and with predictions from the disorder prediction databases D2P2 and MobiDB. On average, the methods participating in CASP10 demonstrated slightly better performance than those in CASP9.

  6. Assessment of protein disorder region predictions in CASP10

    KAUST Repository

    Monastyrskyy, Bohdan

    2013-11-22

    The article presents the assessment of disorder region predictions submitted to CASP10. The evaluation is based on the three measures tested in previous CASPs: (i) balanced accuracy, (ii) the Matthews correlation coefficient for the binary predictions, and (iii) the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of predictions using probability annotation. We also performed new analyses such as comparison of the submitted predictions with those obtained with a Naïve disorder prediction method and with predictions from the disorder prediction databases D2P2 and MobiDB. On average, the methods participating in CASP10 demonstrated slightly better performance than those in CASP9.

  7. Video-based instructions for surgical hand disinfection as a replacement for conventional tuition? A randomised, blind comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weber, Uwe

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Various different learning methods are available for planning tuition regarding the introduction to surgical hand disinfection. These learning methods should help to organise and deal with this topic. The use of a video film is an alternative to conventional tuition due to the real presentation possibilities of practical demonstration. Objective: This study examines by way of comparison which form of communication is more effective for learning and applying surgical hand disinfection for medical students in their first year of studies: video-based instruction or conventional tuition. Methodology: A total of 50 first-year medical students were randomly allocated either to the “Conventional Instruction” (CI study group or to the “Video-based Instruction” (VI study group. The conventional instruction was carried out by an experienced nurse preceptor/nurse educator for the operating theatre who taught the preparatory measures and the actual procedure in a two-minute lesson. The second group watched a two-minute video sequence with identical content. Afterwards, both groups demonstrated practically the knowledge they had acquired at an individual practical test station. The quality (a of the preparation and (b of the procedure as well as (c the quality of the results was assessed by 6 blind experts using a check list. The acceptability of the respective teaching method was also asked about using a questionnaire.Results: The group performance did not differ either in the preparation (=-78, <0.44 or in the quality (=-99, <0.34. With respect to performance, it was possible to demonstrate a strong treatment effect. In the practical (=-3.33, <0.002, =0.943 and in the total score (=-2.65, <0.011, =0.751, the group with video-based instruction achieved a significantly better result. In response to the question as to which of the two learning methods they would prefer, the significant majority (60.4% of students stated video instruction

  8. Shape Distributions of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems for Video-Based Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkataraman, Vinay; Turaga, Pavan

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a shape-theoretic framework for dynamical analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems which appear frequently in several video-based inference tasks. Traditional approaches to dynamical modeling have included linear and nonlinear methods with their respective drawbacks. A novel approach we propose is the use of descriptors of the shape of the dynamical attractor as a feature representation of nature of dynamics. The proposed framework has two main advantages over traditional approaches: a) representation of the dynamical system is derived directly from the observational data, without any inherent assumptions, and b) the proposed features show stability under different time-series lengths where traditional dynamical invariants fail. We illustrate our idea using nonlinear dynamical models such as Lorenz and Rossler systems, where our feature representations (shape distribution) support our hypothesis that the local shape of the reconstructed phase space can be used as a discriminative feature. Our experimental analyses on these models also indicate that the proposed framework show stability for different time-series lengths, which is useful when the available number of samples are small/variable. The specific applications of interest in this paper are: 1) activity recognition using motion capture and RGBD sensors, 2) activity quality assessment for applications in stroke rehabilitation, and 3) dynamical scene classification. We provide experimental validation through action and gesture recognition experiments on motion capture and Kinect datasets. In all these scenarios, we show experimental evidence of the favorable properties of the proposed representation.

  9. Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

  10. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  11. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  12. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  13. Audiovisual quality assessment and prediction for videotelephony

    CERN Document Server

    Belmudez, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The work presented in this book focuses on modeling audiovisual quality as perceived by the users of IP-based solutions for video communication like videotelephony. It also extends the current framework for the parametric prediction of audiovisual call quality. The book addresses several aspects related to the quality perception of entire video calls, namely, the quality estimation of the single audio and video modalities in an interactive context, the audiovisual quality integration of these modalities and the temporal pooling of short sample-based quality scores to account for the perceptual quality impact of time-varying degradations.

  14. Short communications A preliminary assessment of predictive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The high maintenance requirements of the breeding female contribute largely to this low efficiency (Dickerson, 1978). An improvement of both biological and economical effi- ciency therefore becomes increasingly important. The assessment of efficiency requires measurement of individual feed intake, which is unpractical ...

  15. Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

    2017-11-01

    Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Video-based respiration monitoring with automatic region of interest detection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, R.J.M.; Wang, Wenjin; Moço, A.; de Haan, G.

    2016-01-01

    Vital signs monitoring is ubiquitous in clinical environments and emerging in home-based healthcare applications. Still, since current monitoring methods require uncomfortable sensors, respiration rate remains the least measured vital sign. In this paper, we propose a video-based respiration

  17. Emotional Impact of a Video-Based Suicide Prevention Program on Suicidal Viewers and Suicide Survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Craig J.; Dhillon-Davis, Luther E.; Dhillon-Davis, Kieran K.

    2009-01-01

    In light of continuing concerns about iatrogenic effects associated with suicide prevention efforts utilizing video-based media, the impact of emotionally-charged videos on two vulnerable subgroups--suicidal viewers and suicide survivors--was explored. Following participation in routine suicide education as a part of the U.S. Air Force Suicide…

  18. Video-Based Interaction, Negotiation for Comprehensibility, and Second Language Speech Learning: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kazuya; Akiyama, Yuka

    2017-01-01

    This study examined the impact of video-based conversational interaction on the longitudinal development (one academic semester) of second language production by college-level Japanese English-as-a-foreign-language learners. Students in the experimental group engaged in weekly dyadic conversation exchanges with native speakers in the United States…

  19. Progress in the development of a video-based wind farm simulation technique

    OpenAIRE

    Robotham, AJ

    1992-01-01

    The progress in the development of a video-based wind farm simulation technique is reviewed. While improvements have been achieved in the quality of the composite picture created by combining computer generated animation sequences of wind turbines with background scenes of the wind farm site, extending the technique to include camera movements has proved troublesome.

  20. Promoting Savings at Tax Time through a Video-Based Solution-Focused Brief Coaching Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lance Palmer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Solution-focused brief coaching, based on solution-focused brief therapy, is a well-established practice model and is used widely to help individuals progress toward desired outcomes in a variety of settings. This papers presents the findings of a pilot study that examined the impact of a video-based solution-focused brief coaching intervention delivered in conjunction with income tax preparation services at a Volunteer Income Tax Assistance location (n = 212. Individuals receiving tax preparation assistance were randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups: 1 control group; 2 video-based solution-focused brief coaching; 3 discount card incentive; 4 both the video-based solution-focused brief coaching and the discount card incentive. Results of the study indicate that the video-based solution-focused brief coaching intervention increased both the frequency and amount of self-reported savings at tax time. Results also indicate that financial therapy based interventions may be scalable through the use of technology.

  1. Designing Effective Video-Based Modeling Examples Using Gaze and Gesture Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwehand, Kim; van Gog, Tamara|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/294304975; Paas, Fred

    2015-01-01

    Research suggests that learners will likely spend a substantial amount of time looking at the model's face when it is visible in a video-based modeling example. Consequently, in this study we hypothesized that learners might not attend timely to the task areas the model is referring to, unless their

  2. Effects of creating video-based modeling examples on learning and transfer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogerheide, Vincent; Loyens, Sofie M M; van Gog, Tamara

    2014-01-01

    Two experiments investigated whether acting as a peer model for a video-based modeling example, which entails studying a text with the intention to explain it to others and then actually explaining it on video, would foster learning and transfer. In both experiments, novices were instructed to study

  3. Validation of a Video-based Game-Understanding Test Procedure in Badminton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomqvist, Minna T.; Luhtanen, Pekka; Laakso, Lauri; Keskinen, Esko

    2000-01-01

    Reports the development and validation of video-based game-understanding tests in badminton for elementary and secondary students. The tests included different sequences that simulated actual game situations. Players had to solve tactical problems by selecting appropriate solutions and arguments for their decisions. Results suggest that the test…

  4. Facial Video-Based Photoplethysmography to Detect HRV at Rest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, J; Ramos-Castro, J; Movellan, J; Parrado, E; Rodas, G; Capdevila, L

    2015-06-01

    Our aim is to demonstrate the usefulness of photoplethysmography (PPG) for analyzing heart rate variability (HRV) using a standard 5-min test at rest with paced breathing, comparing the results with real RR intervals and testing supine and sitting positions. Simultaneous recordings of R-R intervals were conducted with a Polar system and a non-contact PPG, based on facial video recording on 20 individuals. Data analysis and editing were performed with individually designated software for each instrument. Agreement on HRV parameters was assessed with concordance correlations, effect size from ANOVA and Bland and Altman plots. For supine position, differences between video and Polar systems showed a small effect size in most HRV parameters. For sitting position, these differences showed a moderate effect size in most HRV parameters. A new procedure, based on the pixels that contained more heart beat information, is proposed for improving the signal-to-noise ratio in the PPG video signal. Results were acceptable in both positions but better in the supine position. Our approach could be relevant for applications that require monitoring of stress or cardio-respiratory health, such as effort/recuperation states in sports. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  5. Video-Based Self-Observation as a Component of Developmental Teacher Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo A. Mercado

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the benefits to teacher evaluation when video-based self-observation is done by teachers as a vehicle for individual, reflective practice. We explore how it was applied systematically at the Instituto Cultural Peruano Norteamericano (ICPNA bi-national center in Lima, Peru among hundreds of English as a foreign language (EFL teachers in two institution-wide initiatives that have relied on self-observation through video professional development. In these cases, we provide a descriptive framework for each initiative as well as information on what was ultimately achieved by teachers, supervisors and the institution as a whole. We conclude with recommendations for implementing video-based self-evaluation.

  6. Researchers and teachers learning together and from each other using video-based multimodal analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Jacob; Vanderlinde, Ruben

    2014-01-01

    integrated touch-screens into their teaching and learning. This paper examines the methodological usefulness of video-based multimodal analysis. Through reflection on the research project, we discuss how, by using video-based multimodal analysis, researchers and teachers can study children’s touch......This paper discusses a year-long technology integration project, during which teachers and researchers joined forces to explore children’s collaborative activities through the use of touch-screens. In the research project, discussed in this paper, 16 touch-screens were integrated into teaching...... and learning activities in two separate classrooms; the learning and collaborative processes were captured by using video, collecting over 150 hours of footage. By using digital research technologies and a longitudinal design, the authors of the research project studied how teachers and children gradually...

  7. Is Video-Based Education an Effective Method in Surgical Education? A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmet, Akgul; Gamze, Kus; Rustem, Mustafaoglu; Sezen, Karaborklu Argut

    2018-02-12

    Visual signs draw more attention during the learning process. Video is one of the most effective tool including a lot of visual cues. This systematic review set out to explore the influence of video in surgical education. We reviewed the current evidence for the video-based surgical education methods, discuss the advantages and disadvantages on the teaching of technical and nontechnical surgical skills. This systematic review was conducted according to the guidelines defined in the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses statement. The electronic databases: the Cochrane Library, Medline (PubMED), and ProQuest were searched from their inception to the 30 January 2016. The Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and keywords used were "video," "education," and "surgery." We analyzed all full-texts, randomised and nonrandomised clinical trials and observational studies including video-based education methods about any surgery. "Education" means a medical resident's or student's training and teaching process; not patients' education. We did not impose restrictions about language or publication date. A total of nine articles which met inclusion criteria were included. These trials enrolled 507 participants and the total number of participants per trial ranged from 10 to 172. Nearly all of the studies reviewed report significant knowledge gain from video-based education techniques. The findings of this systematic review provide fair to good quality studies to demonstrate significant gains in knowledge compared with traditional teaching. Additional video to simulator exercise or 3D animations has beneficial effects on training time, learning duration, acquisition of surgical skills, and trainee's satisfaction. Video-based education has potential for use in surgical education as trainees face significant barriers in their practice. This method is effective according to the recent literature. Video should be used in addition to standard techniques

  8. Infrared video based gas leak detection method using modified FAST features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Min; Hong, Hanyu; Huang, Likun

    2018-03-01

    In order to detect the invisible leaking gas that is usually dangerous and easily leads to fire or explosion in time, many new technologies have arisen in the recent years, among which the infrared video based gas leak detection is widely recognized as a viable tool. However, all the moving regions of a video frame can be detected as leaking gas regions by the existing infrared video based gas leak detection methods, without discriminating the property of each detected region, e.g., a walking person in a video frame may be also detected as gas by the current gas leak detection methods.To solve this problem, we propose a novel infrared video based gas leak detection method in this paper, which is able to effectively suppress strong motion disturbances.Firstly, the Gaussian mixture model(GMM) is used to establish the background model.Then due to the observation that the shapes of gas regions are different from most rigid moving objects, we modify the Features From Accelerated Segment Test (FAST) algorithm and use the modified FAST (mFAST) features to describe each connected component. In view of the fact that the statistical property of the mFAST features extracted from gas regions is different from that of other motion regions, we propose the Pixel-Per-Points (PPP) condition to further select candidate connected components.Experimental results show that the algorithm is able to effectively suppress most strong motion disturbances and achieve real-time leaking gas detection.

  9. Two-Stream Transformer Networks for Video-based Face Alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hao; Lu, Jiwen; Feng, Jianjiang; Zhou, Jie

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a two-stream transformer networks (TSTN) approach for video-based face alignment. Unlike conventional image-based face alignment approaches which cannot explicitly model the temporal dependency in videos and motivated by the fact that consistent movements of facial landmarks usually occur across consecutive frames, our TSTN aims to capture the complementary information of both the spatial appearance on still frames and the temporal consistency information across frames. To achieve this, we develop a two-stream architecture, which decomposes the video-based face alignment into spatial and temporal streams accordingly. Specifically, the spatial stream aims to transform the facial image to the landmark positions by preserving the holistic facial shape structure. Accordingly, the temporal stream encodes the video input as active appearance codes, where the temporal consistency information across frames is captured to help shape refinements. Experimental results on the benchmarking video-based face alignment datasets show very competitive performance of our method in comparisons to the state-of-the-arts.

  10. Personality assessment and behavioral prediction at first impression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vartanian, O.; Stewart, K.; Mandel, D.R.; Pavlovic, N.; McLellan, L.; Taylor, Paul J

    2012-01-01

    Research has demonstrated high levels of consensus and self-other agreement for extraversion and conscientiousness. However, the mechanisms whereby these assessments contribute to accuracy in behavioral predictions remain unclear. In this study, two judges rated targets on Big Five personality

  11. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  12. Assessment of PANC3 Score in Predicting Severity of Acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-05-18

    May 18, 2017 ... us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming or .... and Acute pancreatitis classification working group)[3] to assess the severity of ... belonged to 30–45 years age group, with mean age of.

  13. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  14. Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfan, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar

  15. Coding Scheme for Assessment of Students’ Explanations and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihael Gojkošek

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In the process of analyzing students’ explanations and predictions for interaction between brightness enhancement film and beam of white light, a need for objective and reliable assessment instrumentarose. Consequently, we developed a codingscheme that was mostly inspired by the rubrics for self-assessment of scientific abilities. In the paper we present the grading categories that were integrated in the coding scheme, and descriptions of criteria used for evaluation of students work. We report the results of reliability analysis of new assessment tool and present some examples of its application.

  16. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  17. Predicting Performance on MOOC Assessments using Multi-Regression Models

    OpenAIRE

    Ren, Zhiyun; Rangwala, Huzefa; Johri, Aditya

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempt...

  18. A coach's political use of video-based feedback: a case study in elite-level academy soccer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booroff, Michael; Nelson, Lee; Potrac, Paul

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the video-based pedagogical practices of Terry (pseudonym), a head coach of a professional junior academy squad. Data were collected through 6 in-depth, semi-structured interviews and 10 field observations of Terry's video-based coaching in situ. Three embracing categories were generated from the data. These demonstrated that Terry's video-based coaching was far from apolitical. Rather, Terry strategically used performance analysis technologies to help fulfil various objectives and outcomes that he understood to be expected of him within the club environment. Kelchtermans' micropolitical perspective, Callero's work addressing role and Groom et al.'s grounded theory were primarily utilised to make sense of Terry's perceptions and actions. The findings point to the value of developing contextually grounded understandings of coaches' uses of video-based performance analysis technology. Doing so could better prepare coaches for this aspect of their coaching practice.

  19. Is a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia as efficacious as a professionally administered treatment in breast cancer? Results of a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savard, Josée; Ivers, Hans; Savard, Marie-Hélène; Morin, Charles M

    2014-08-01

    To assess the short-term efficacy of a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) as compared to a professionally administered CBT-I and to a no-treatment group. Randomized controlled trial. Radio-oncology department of a public hospital affiliated with Université Laval (CHU de Québec). Two hundred forty-two women with breast cancer who had received radiation therapy in the past 18 mo and who had insomnia symptoms or were using hypnotic medications were randomized to: (1) professionally administered CBT-I (PCBT-I; n = 81); (2) video-based CBT-I (VCBT-I; n = 80); and (3) no treatment (CTL; n = 81). PCBT-I composed of six weekly, individual sessions of approximately 50 min; VCBT-I composed of a 60-min animated video + six booklets. Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) total score and sleep parameters derived from a daily sleep diary and actigraphy, collected at pretreatment and posttreatment. PCBT-I and VCBT-I were associated with significantly greater sleep improvements, assessed subjectively, as compared to CTL. However, relative to VCBT-I, PCBT-I was associated with significantly greater improvements of insomnia severity, early morning awakenings, depression, fatigue, and dysfunctional beliefs about sleep. The remission rates of insomnia (ISI insomnia (CBT-I) using a video format appears to be a valuable treatment option, but face-to-face sessions remain the optimal format for administering CBT-I efficaciously in patients with breast cancer. Self-help interventions for insomnia may constitute an appropriate entry level as part of a stepped care model. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00674830. Savard J, Ivers H, Savard MH, Morin CM. Is a video-based cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia as efficacious as a professionally administered treatment in breast cancer? Results of a randomized controlled trial.

  20. Online video-based resistance training improves the physical capacity of junior basketball athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klusemann, Markus J; Pyne, David B; Fay, Tristan S; Drinkwater, Eric J

    2012-10-01

    Junior basketball athletes require a well-designed resistance training program to improve their physical development. Lack of expert supervision and resistance training in junior development pathways may be overcome by implementing an online video-based program. The aim of this study was to compare the magnitude of improvement (change) in physical performance and strength and functional movement patterns of junior basketball athletes using either a fully supervised or an online video-based resistance training program. Thirty-eight junior basketball athletes (males, n = 17; age, 14 ± 1 year; height, 1.79 ± 0.10 m; mass, 67 ± 12 kg; females, n = 21; age, 15 ± 1 year; height, 1.70 ± 0.07 m; mass, 62 ± 8 kg) were randomly assigned into a supervised resistance training group (SG, n = 13), video training group (VG, n = 13) or control group (CG, n = 12) and participated in a 6-week controlled experimental trial. Pre- and posttesting included measures of physical performance (20-m sprint, step-in vertical jump, agility, sit and reach, line drill, and Yo-Yo intermittent recovery level 1), strength (15 s push-up and pull-up), and functional movement screening (FMS). Both SG and VG achieved 3-5% ± 2-4% (mean ± 90% confidence limits) greater improvements in several physical performance measures (vertical jump height, 20-m sprint time, and Yo-Yo endurance performance) and a 28 ± 21% greater improvement in push-up strength compared with the CG. The SG attained substantially larger gains in FMS scores over both the VG (12 ± 10%) and CG (13 ± 8%). Video-based training appears to be a viable option to improve physical performance and strength in junior basketball athletes. Qualified supervision is recommended to improve functional movement patterns in junior athletes.

  1. Predicting postoperative pain by preoperative pressure pain assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Yung-Wei; Somma, Jacques; Hung, Yu-Chun; Tsai, Pei-Shan; Yang, Chen-Hsien; Chen, Chien-Chuan

    2005-09-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate whether preoperative pressure pain sensitivity testing is predictive of postoperative surgical pain. Female subjects undergoing lower abdominal gynecologic surgery were studied. A pressure algometer was used preoperatively to determine the pressure pain threshold and tolerance. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess postoperative pain. A State-Trait Anxiety Inventory was used to assess patients' anxiety. Subjects received intravenous patient-controlled analgesia for postoperative pain control. The preoperative pain threshold and tolerance were compared with the postoperative VAS pain score and morphine consumption. Forty women were enrolled. Their preoperative pressure pain threshold and tolerance were 141 +/- 65 kPa and 223 +/- 62 kPa, respectively. The VAS pain score in the postanesthesia care unit and at 24 h postoperatively were 81 +/- 24 and 31 +/- 10, respectively. Highly anxious patients had higher VAS pain scores in the postanesthesia care unit (P pain tolerance was significantly correlated with the VAS at 24 h postoperatively (P pain tolerance after fentanyl administration (mean, 272 +/- 68 kPa) correlated significantly with morphine consumption in the first 24 h postoperatively (P pain tolerance is significantly correlated with the level of postoperative pain. Pain tolerance assessment after fentanyl was administered and fentanyl sensitivity predicted the dose of analgesics used in the first 24 h after surgery. The algometer is thus a simple, useful tool for predicting postoperative pain and analgesic consumption.

  2. Information assessment on predicting protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerstein Mark

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identifying protein-protein interactions is fundamental for understanding the molecular machinery of the cell. Proteome-wide studies of protein-protein interactions are of significant value, but the high-throughput experimental technologies suffer from high rates of both false positive and false negative predictions. In addition to high-throughput experimental data, many diverse types of genomic data can help predict protein-protein interactions, such as mRNA expression, localization, essentiality, and functional annotation. Evaluations of the information contributions from different evidences help to establish more parsimonious models with comparable or better prediction accuracy, and to obtain biological insights of the relationships between protein-protein interactions and other genomic information. Results Our assessment is based on the genomic features used in a Bayesian network approach to predict protein-protein interactions genome-wide in yeast. In the special case, when one does not have any missing information about any of the features, our analysis shows that there is a larger information contribution from the functional-classification than from expression correlations or essentiality. We also show that in this case alternative models, such as logistic regression and random forest, may be more effective than Bayesian networks for predicting interactions. Conclusions In the restricted problem posed by the complete-information subset, we identified that the MIPS and Gene Ontology (GO functional similarity datasets as the dominating information contributors for predicting the protein-protein interactions under the framework proposed by Jansen et al. Random forests based on the MIPS and GO information alone can give highly accurate classifications. In this particular subset of complete information, adding other genomic data does little for improving predictions. We also found that the data discretizations used in the

  3. A video-based system for hand-driven stop-motion animation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xiaoguang; Fu, Hongbo; Zheng, Hanlin; Liu, Ligang; Wang, Jue

    2013-01-01

    Stop-motion is a well-established animation technique but is often laborious and requires craft skills. A new video-based system can animate the vast majority of everyday objects in stop-motion style, more flexibly and intuitively. Animators can perform and capture motions continuously instead of breaking them into increments and shooting one still picture per increment. More important, the system permits direct hand manipulation without resorting to rigs, achieving more natural object control for beginners. The system's key component is two-phase keyframe-based capturing and processing, assisted by computer vision techniques. With this system, even amateurs can generate high-quality stop-motion animations.

  4. Video-based lane estimation and tracking for driver assistance: Survey, system, and evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    McCall, J C; Trivedi, Mohan Manubhai

    2006-01-01

    Driver-assistance systems that monitor driver intent, warn drivers of lane departures, or assist in vehicle guidance are all being actively considered. It is therefore important to take a critical look at key aspects of these systems, one of which is lane-position tracking. It is for these driver-assistance objectives that motivate the development of the novel "video-based lane estimation and tracking" (VioLET) system. The system is designed using steerable filters for robust and accurate lan...

  5. Advances in top-down and bottom-up approaches to video-based camera tracking

    OpenAIRE

    Marimón Sanjuán, David

    2007-01-01

    Video-based camera tracking consists in trailing the three dimensional pose followed by a mobile camera using video as sole input. In order to estimate the pose of a camera with respect to a real scene, one or more three dimensional references are needed. Examples of such references are landmarks with known geometric shape, or objects for which a model is generated beforehand. By comparing what is seen by a camera with what is geometrically known from reality, it is possible to recover the po...

  6. Advances in top-down and bottom-up approaches to video-based camera tracking

    OpenAIRE

    Marimón Sanjuán, David; Ebrahimi, Touradj

    2008-01-01

    Video-based camera tracking consists in trailing the three dimensional pose followed by a mobile camera using video as sole input. In order to estimate the pose of a camera with respect to a real scene, one or more three dimensional references are needed. Examples of such references are landmarks with known geometric shape, or objects for which a model is generated beforehand. By comparing what is seen by a camera with what is geometrically known from reality, it is possible to recover the po...

  7. Comparative and Predictive Multimedia Assessments Using Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, G.

    2002-05-01

    Multiple-pathway frameworks (sometimes referred to as multimedia models) provide a platform for combining medium-specific environmental models and databases, such that they can be utilized in a more holistic assessment of contaminant fate and transport in the environment. These frameworks provide a relatively seamless transfer of information from one model to the next and from databases to models. Within these frameworks, multiple models are linked, resulting in models that consume information from upstream models and produce information to be consumed by downstream models. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) is an example, which allows users to link their models to other models and databases. FRAMES is an icon-driven, site-layout platform that is an open-architecture, object-oriented system that interacts with environmental databases; helps the user construct a Conceptual Site Model that is real-world based; allows the user to choose the most appropriate models to solve simulation requirements; solves the standard risk paradigm of release transport and fate; and exposure/risk assessments to people and ecology; and presents graphical packages for analyzing results. FRAMES is specifically designed allow users to link their own models into a system, which contains models developed by others. This paper will present the use of FRAMES to evaluate potential human health exposures using real site data and realistic assumptions from sources, through the vadose and saturated zones, to exposure and risk assessment at three real-world sites, using the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), which is a multimedia model contained within FRAMES. These real-world examples use predictive and comparative approaches coupled with a Monte Carlo analysis. A predictive analysis is where models are calibrated to monitored site data, prior to the assessment, and a comparative analysis is where models are not calibrated but

  8. Effects of video-based, online education on behavioral and knowledge outcomes in sunscreen use: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, April W; Idriss, Nayla Z; Kim, Randie H

    2011-05-01

    To compare online video and pamphlet education at improving patient comprehension and adherence to sunscreen use, and to assess patient satisfaction with the two educational approaches. In a randomized controlled trial, 94 participants received either online, video-based education or pamphlet-based education that described the importance and proper use of sunscreen. Sun protective knowledge and sunscreen application behaviors were assessed at baseline and 12 weeks after group-specific intervention. Participants in both groups had similar levels of baseline sunscreen knowledge. Post-study analysis revealed significantly greater improvement in the knowledge scores from video group members compared to the pamphlet group (p=0.003). More importantly, video group participants reported greater sunscreen adherence (peducation vehicle more useful and appealing than the pamphlet group (peducational tool for teaching sun protective knowledge and encouraging sunscreen use than written materials. More effective patient educational methods to encourage sun protection activities, such as regular sunscreen use, have the potential to increase awareness and foster positive, preventative health behaviors against skin cancers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  10. Assessment of CASP7 structure predictions for template free targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauch, Ralf; Yeo, Hock Chuan; Kolatkar, Prasanna R; Clarke, Neil D

    2007-01-01

    In CASP7, protein structure prediction targets that lacked substantial similarity to a protein in the PDB at the time of assessment were considered to be free modeling targets (FM). We assessed predictions for 14 FM targets as well as four other targets that were deemed to be on the borderline between FM targets and template based modeling targets (TBM/FM). GDT_TS was used as one measure of model quality. Model quality was also assessed by visual inspection. Visual inspection was performed by three independent assessors who were blinded to GDT_TS scores and other quantitative measures of model quality. The best models by visual inspection tended to rank among the top few percent by GDT_TS, but were typically not the highest scoring models. Thus, visual inspection remains an essential component of assessment for FM targets. Overall, group TS020 (Baker) performed best, but success on individual targets was widely distributed among many groups. Among these other groups, TS024 and TS025 (Zhang and Zhang server) performed notably well without exceptionally large computing resources. This should be considered encouraging for future CASPs. There was a sense of progress in template FM relative to CASP6, but we were unable to demonstrate this progress objectively. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  11. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  12. On the proper use of Ensembles for Predictive Uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todini, Ezio; Coccia, Gabriele; Ortiz, Enrique

    2015-04-01

    uncertainty of the ensemble mean and that of the ensemble spread. The results of this new approach are illustrated by using data and forecasts from an operational real time flood forecasting. Coccia, G. and Todini, E. 2011. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the Model Conditional Processor approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 3253-3274. doi:10.5194/hess-15-3253-2011. Krzysztofowicz, R. 1999 Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2739-2750. Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 1155-1174. Reggiani, P., Renner, M., Weerts, A., and van Gelder, P., 2009. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system, Water Resour. Res., 45, W02428, doi:10.1029/2007WR006758. Todini E. 2004. Role and treatment of uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes 18(14), 2743_2746 Todini, E. 2008. A model conditional processor to assess predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting. Intl. J. River Basin Management, 6(2): 123-137.

  13. Supporting Problem Solving with Case-Stories Learning Scenario and Video-based Collaborative Learning Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Hu

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that case-based resources, which are used for assisting cognition during problem solving, can be structured around the work of narratives in social cultural psychology. Theories and other research methods have proposed structures within narratives and stories which may be useful to the design of case-based resources. Moreover, embedded within cases are stories which are contextually rich, supporting the epistemological groundings of situated cognition. Therefore the purposes of this paper are to discuss possible frameworks of case-stories; derive design principles as to “what” constitutes a good case story or narrative; and suggest how technology can support story-based learning. We adopt video-based Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning (CSCL technology to support problem solving with case-stories learning scenarios. Our hypothesis in this paper is that well-designed case-based resources are able to aid in the cognitive processes undergirding problem solving and meaning making. We also suggest the use of an emerging video-based collaborative learning technology to support such an instructional strategy.

  14. Video-based real-time on-street parking occupancy detection system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulan, Orhan; Loce, Robert P.; Wu, Wencheng; Wang, YaoRong; Bernal, Edgar A.; Fan, Zhigang

    2013-10-01

    Urban parking management is receiving significant attention due to its potential to reduce traffic congestion, fuel consumption, and emissions. Real-time parking occupancy detection is a critical component of on-street parking management systems, where occupancy information is relayed to drivers via smart phone apps, radio, Internet, on-road signs, or global positioning system auxiliary signals. Video-based parking occupancy detection systems can provide a cost-effective solution to the sensing task while providing additional functionality for traffic law enforcement and surveillance. We present a video-based on-street parking occupancy detection system that can operate in real time. Our system accounts for the inherent challenges that exist in on-street parking settings, including illumination changes, rain, shadows, occlusions, and camera motion. Our method utilizes several components from video processing and computer vision for motion detection, background subtraction, and vehicle detection. We also present three traffic law enforcement applications: parking angle violation detection, parking boundary violation detection, and exclusion zone violation detection, which can be integrated into the parking occupancy cameras as a value-added option. Our experimental results show that the proposed parking occupancy detection method performs in real-time at 5 frames/s and achieves better than 90% detection accuracy across several days of videos captured in a busy street block under various weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy, among others.

  15. Machinima and Video-Based Soft-Skills Training for Frontline Healthcare Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conkey, Curtis A; Bowers, Clint; Cannon-Bowers, Janis; Sanchez, Alicia

    2013-02-01

    Multimedia training methods have traditionally relied heavily on video-based technologies, and significant research has shown these to be very effective training tools. However, production of video is time and resource intensive. Machinima technologies are based on videogaming technology. Machinima technology allows videogame technology to be manipulated into unique scenarios based on entertainment or training and practice applications. Machinima is the converting of these unique scenarios into video vignettes that tell a story. These vignettes can be interconnected with branching points in much the same way that education videos are interconnected as vignettes between decision points. This study addressed the effectiveness of machinima-based soft-skills education using avatar actors versus the traditional video teaching application using human actors in the training of frontline healthcare workers. This research also investigated the difference between presence reactions when using avatar actor-produced video vignettes as compared with human actor-produced video vignettes. Results indicated that the difference in training and/or practice effectiveness is statistically insignificant for presence, interactivity, quality, and the skill of assertiveness. The skill of active listening presented a mixed result indicating the need for careful attention to detail in situations where body language and facial expressions are critical to communication. This study demonstrates that a significant opportunity exists for the exploitation of avatar actors in video-based instruction.

  16. A Novel Laser and Video-Based Displacement Transducer to Monitor Bridge Deflections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicente, Miguel A; Gonzalez, Dorys C; Minguez, Jesus; Schumacher, Thomas

    2018-03-25

    The measurement of static vertical deflections on bridges continues to be a first-level technological challenge. These data are of great interest, especially for the case of long-term bridge monitoring; in fact, they are perhaps more valuable than any other measurable parameter. This is because material degradation processes and changes of the mechanical properties of the structure due to aging (for example creep and shrinkage in concrete bridges) have a direct impact on the exhibited static vertical deflections. This paper introduces and evaluates an approach to monitor displacements and rotations of structures using a novel laser and video-based displacement transducer (LVBDT). The proposed system combines the use of laser beams, LED lights, and a digital video camera, and was especially designed to capture static and slow-varying displacements. Contrary to other video-based approaches, the camera is located on the bridge, hence allowing to capture displacements at one location. Subsequently, the sensing approach and the procedure to estimate displacements and the rotations are described. Additionally, laboratory and in-service field testing carried out to validate the system are presented and discussed. The results demonstrate that the proposed sensing approach is robust, accurate, and reliable, and also inexpensive, which are essential for field implementation.

  17. Using video-based observation research methods in primary care health encounters to evaluate complex interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asan, Onur; Montague, Enid

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the use of video-based observation research methods in primary care environment and highlight important methodological considerations and provide practical guidance for primary care and human factors researchers conducting video studies to understand patient-clinician interaction in primary care settings. We reviewed studies in the literature which used video methods in health care research, and we also used our own experience based on the video studies we conducted in primary care settings. This paper highlighted the benefits of using video techniques, such as multi-channel recording and video coding, and compared "unmanned" video recording with the traditional observation method in primary care research. We proposed a list that can be followed step by step to conduct an effective video study in a primary care setting for a given problem. This paper also described obstacles, researchers should anticipate when using video recording methods in future studies. With the new technological improvements, video-based observation research is becoming a promising method in primary care and HFE research. Video recording has been under-utilised as a data collection tool because of confidentiality and privacy issues. However, it has many benefits as opposed to traditional observations, and recent studies using video recording methods have introduced new research areas and approaches.

  18. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  19. Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

  20. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  1. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  2. Face puzzle—two new video-based tasks for measuring explicit and implicit aspects of facial emotion recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliemann, Dorit; Rosenblau, Gabriela; Bölte, Sven; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Dziobek, Isabel

    2013-01-01

    Recognizing others' emotional states is crucial for effective social interaction. While most facial emotion recognition tasks use explicit prompts that trigger consciously controlled processing, emotional faces are almost exclusively processed implicitly in real life. Recent attempts in social cognition suggest a dual process perspective, whereby explicit and implicit processes largely operate independently. However, due to differences in methodology the direct comparison of implicit and explicit social cognition has remained a challenge. Here, we introduce a new tool to comparably measure implicit and explicit processing aspects comprising basic and complex emotions in facial expressions. We developed two video-based tasks with similar answer formats to assess performance in respective facial emotion recognition processes: Face Puzzle, implicit and explicit. To assess the tasks' sensitivity to atypical social cognition and to infer interrelationship patterns between explicit and implicit processes in typical and atypical development, we included healthy adults (NT, n = 24) and adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD, n = 24). Item analyses yielded good reliability of the new tasks. Group-specific results indicated sensitivity to subtle social impairments in high-functioning ASD. Correlation analyses with established implicit and explicit socio-cognitive measures were further in favor of the tasks' external validity. Between group comparisons provide first hints of differential relations between implicit and explicit aspects of facial emotion recognition processes in healthy compared to ASD participants. In addition, an increased magnitude of between group differences in the implicit task was found for a speed-accuracy composite measure. The new Face Puzzle tool thus provides two new tasks to separately assess explicit and implicit social functioning, for instance, to measure subtle impairments as well as potential improvements due to social cognitive

  3. Effectiveness of a video-based aging services technology education program for health care professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weakley, Alyssa; Tam, Joyce W; Van Son, Catherine; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen

    2017-01-19

    Health care professionals (HCPs) are a critical source of recommendations for older adults. Aging services technologies (ASTs), which include devices to support the health-care needs of older adults, are underutilized despite evidence for improving functional outcomes and safety and reducing caregiver burden and health costs. This study evaluated a video-based educational program aimed at improving HCP awareness of ASTs. Sixty-five HCPs viewed AST videos related to medication management, daily living, and memory. Following the program, participants' objective and perceived AST knowledge improved, as did self-efficacy and anticipated AST engagement. About 95% of participants stated they were more likely to recommend ASTs postprogram. Participants benefitted equally regardless of years of experience or previous AST familiarity. Furthermore, change in self-efficacy and perceived knowledge were significant predictors of engagement change. Overall, the educational program was effective in improving HCPs' awareness of ASTs and appeared to benefit all participants regardless of experience and prior knowledge.

  4. Detection of Upscale-Crop and Partial Manipulation in Surveillance Video Based on Sensor Pattern Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyun, Dai-Kyung; Ryu, Seung-Jin; Lee, Hae-Yeoun; Lee, Heung-Kyu

    2013-01-01

    In many court cases, surveillance videos are used as significant court evidence. As these surveillance videos can easily be forged, it may cause serious social issues, such as convicting an innocent person. Nevertheless, there is little research being done on forgery of surveillance videos. This paper proposes a forensic technique to detect forgeries of surveillance video based on sensor pattern noise (SPN). We exploit the scaling invariance of the minimum average correlation energy Mellin radial harmonic (MACE-MRH) correlation filter to reliably unveil traces of upscaling in videos. By excluding the high-frequency components of the investigated video and adaptively choosing the size of the local search window, the proposed method effectively localizes partially manipulated regions. Empirical evidence from a large database of test videos, including RGB (Red, Green, Blue)/infrared video, dynamic-/static-scene video and compressed video, indicates the superior performance of the proposed method. PMID:24051524

  5. Open-Ended Interaction in Cooperative Pro-to-typing: A Video-based Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Susanne; Grønbæk, Kaj; Trigg, Randal

    1991-01-01

    Cooperative Prototyping can be characterized as the use and development of prototypes as catalysts during discussions between designers and potential users – the overall intention being one of mutual learning. On the one hand, the designers learn more about the work practices of the users in ways...... that are tied concretely to some current version of the prototype. On the other hand, the users learn more about the potential for change in their work practice, whether computer-based or otherwise. This paper presents the results of a field study of the cooperative prototyping process. The study is based...... on a fine-grained video-based analysis of a single prototyping session, and focuses on the effects of an open-ended style of interaction between users and designers around a prototype. An analysis of focus shifts, initiative and storytelling during the session is brought to bear on the question of whether...

  6. Image and video based remote target localization and tracking on smartphones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qia; Lobzhanidze, Alex; Jang, Hyun; Zeng, Wenjun; Shang, Yi; Yang, Jingyu

    2012-06-01

    Smartphones are becoming popular nowadays not only because of its communication functionality but also, more importantly, its powerful sensing and computing capability. In this paper, we describe a novel and accurate image and video based remote target localization and tracking system using the Android smartphones, by leveraging its built-in sensors such as camera, digital compass, GPS, etc. Even though many other distance estimation or localization devices are available, our all-in-one, easy-to-use localization and tracking system on low cost and commodity smartphones is first of its kind. Furthermore, smartphones' exclusive user-friendly interface has been effectively taken advantage of by our system to facilitate low complexity and high accuracy. Our experimental results show that our system works accurately and efficiently.

  7. A TBB-CUDA Implementation for Background Removal in a Video-Based Fire Detection System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel TBB-CUDA implementation for the acceleration of single-Gaussian distribution model, which is effective for background removal in the video-based fire detection system. In this framework, TBB mainly deals with initializing work of the estimated Gaussian model running on CPU, and CUDA performs background removal and adaption of the model running on GPU. This implementation can exploit the combined computation power of TBB-CUDA, which can be applied to the real-time environment. Over 220 video sequences are utilized in the experiments. The experimental results illustrate that TBB+CUDA can achieve a higher speedup than both TBB and CUDA. The proposed framework can effectively overcome the disadvantages of limited memory bandwidth and few execution units of CPU, and it reduces data transfer latency and memory latency between CPU and GPU.

  8. Video-based data acquisition system for use in eye blink classical conditioning procedures in sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nation, Kelsey; Birge, Adam; Lunde, Emily; Cudd, Timothy; Goodlett, Charles; Washburn, Shannon

    2017-10-01

    Pavlovian eye blink conditioning (EBC) has been extensively studied in humans and laboratory animals, providing one of the best-understood models of learning in neuroscience. EBC has been especially useful in translational studies of cerebellar and hippocampal function. We recently reported a novel extension of EBC procedures for use in sheep, and now describe new advances in a digital video-based system. The system delivers paired presentations of conditioned stimuli (CSs; a tone) and unconditioned stimuli (USs; an air puff to the eye), or CS-alone "unpaired" trials. This system tracks the linear distance between the eyelids to identify blinks occurring as either unconditioned (URs) or conditioned (CRs) responses, to a resolution of 5 ms. A separate software application (Eye Blink Reviewer) is used to review and autoscore the trial CRs and URs, on the basis of a set of predetermined rules, permitting an operator to confirm (or rescore, if needed) the autoscore results, thereby providing quality control for accuracy of scoring. Learning curves may then be quantified in terms of the frequencies of CRs over sessions, both on trials with paired CS-US presentations and on CS-alone trials. The latency to CR onset, latency to CR peak, and occurrence of URs are also obtained. As we demonstrated in two example cases, this video-based system provides efficient automated means to conduct EBC in sheep and can facilitate fully powered studies with multigroup designs that involve paired and unpaired training. This can help extend new studies in sheep, a species well suited for translational studies of neurodevelopmental disorders resulting from gestational exposure to drugs, toxins, or intrauterine distress.

  9. Analysis of facial expressions in parkinson's disease through video-based automatic methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandini, Andrea; Orlandi, Silvia; Escalante, Hugo Jair; Giovannelli, Fabio; Cincotta, Massimo; Reyes-Garcia, Carlos A; Vanni, Paola; Zaccara, Gaetano; Manfredi, Claudia

    2017-04-01

    The automatic analysis of facial expressions is an evolving field that finds several clinical applications. One of these applications is the study of facial bradykinesia in Parkinson's disease (PD), which is a major motor sign of this neurodegenerative illness. Facial bradykinesia consists in the reduction/loss of facial movements and emotional facial expressions called hypomimia. In this work we propose an automatic method for studying facial expressions in PD patients relying on video-based METHODS: 17 Parkinsonian patients and 17 healthy control subjects were asked to show basic facial expressions, upon request of the clinician and after the imitation of a visual cue on a screen. Through an existing face tracker, the Euclidean distance of the facial model from a neutral baseline was computed in order to quantify the changes in facial expressivity during the tasks. Moreover, an automatic facial expressions recognition algorithm was trained in order to study how PD expressions differed from the standard expressions. Results show that control subjects reported on average higher distances than PD patients along the tasks. This confirms that control subjects show larger movements during both posed and imitated facial expressions. Moreover, our results demonstrate that anger and disgust are the two most impaired expressions in PD patients. Contactless video-based systems can be important techniques for analyzing facial expressions also in rehabilitation, in particular speech therapy, where patients could get a definite advantage from a real-time feedback about the proper facial expressions/movements to perform. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessing the accuracy of software predictions of mammalian and microbial metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    New chemical development and hazard assessments benefit from accurate predictions of mammalian and microbial metabolites. Fourteen biotransformation libraries encoded in eight software packages that predict metabolite structures were assessed for their sensitivity (proportion of ...

  11. Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim evan Emmerik

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.

  12. Effects of Video-Based Visual Training on Decision-Making and Reactive Agility in Adolescent Football Players

    OpenAIRE

    Alfred Nimmerichter; Nikolaus J. R. Weber; Klaus Wirth; Andreas Haller

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the trainability of decision-making and reactive agility via video-based visual training in young athletes. Thirty-four members of a national football academy (age: 14.4 ± 0.1 years) were randomly assigned to a training (VIS; n = 18) or a control group (CON; n = 16). In addition to the football training, the VIS completed a video-based visual training twice a week over a period of six weeks during the competition phase. Using the temporal occlusion technique, the playe...

  13. Assessment of predictive capabilities for aerodynamic heating in hypersonic flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Doyle; Chazot, Olivier; Austin, Joanna; Badr, Mohammad Ali; Candler, Graham; Celik, Bayram; Rosa, Donato de; Donelli, Raffaele; Komives, Jeffrey; Lani, Andrea; Levin, Deborah; Nompelis, Ioannis; Panesi, Marco; Pezzella, Giuseppe; Reimann, Bodo; Tumuklu, Ozgur; Yuceil, Kemal

    2017-04-01

    The capability for CFD prediction of hypersonic shock wave laminar boundary layer interaction was assessed for a double wedge model at Mach 7.1 in air and nitrogen at 2.1 MJ/kg and 8 MJ/kg. Simulations were performed by seven research organizations encompassing both Navier-Stokes and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) methods as part of the NATO STO AVT Task Group 205 activity. Comparison of the CFD simulations with experimental heat transfer and schlieren visualization suggest the need for accurate modeling of the tunnel startup process in short-duration hypersonic test facilities, and the importance of fully 3-D simulations of nominally 2-D (i.e., non-axisymmmetric) experimental geometries.

  14. Predicting work Performance through selection interview ratings and Psychological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liziwe Nzama

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to establish whether selection interviews used in conjunction with psychological assessments of personality traits and cognitive functioning contribute to predicting work performance. The sample consisted of 102 managers who were appointed recently in a retail organisation. The independent variables were selection interview ratings obtained on the basis of structured competency-based interview schedules by interviewing panels, fve broad dimensions of personality defned by the Five Factor Model as measured by the 15 Factor Questionnaire (15FQ+, and cognitive processing variables (current level of work, potential level of work, and 12 processing competencies measured by the Cognitive Process Profle (CPP. Work performance was measured through annual performance ratings that focused on measurable outputs of performance objectives. Only two predictor variables correlated statistically signifcantly with the criterion variable, namely interview ratings (r = 0.31 and CPP Verbal Abstraction (r = 0.34. Following multiple regression, only these variables contributed signifcantly to predicting work performance, but only 17.8% of the variance of the criterion was accounted for.

  15. Can Preoperative Psychological Assessment Predict Outcomes After Temporomandibular Joint Arthroscopy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouloux, Gary F; Zerweck, Ashley G; Celano, Marianne; Dai, Tian; Easley, Kirk A

    2015-11-01

    Psychological assessment has been used successfully to predict patient outcomes after cardiothoracic and bariatric surgery. The purpose of this study was to determine whether preoperative psychological assessment could be used to predict patient outcomes after temporomandibular joint arthroscopy. Consecutive patients with temporomandibular dysfunction (TMD) who could benefit from arthroscopy were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. All patients completed the Millon Behavior Medicine Diagnostic survey before surgery. The primary predictor variable was the preoperative psychological scores. The primary outcome variable was the difference in pain between the pre- and postoperative periods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Pearson product-moment correlation were used to determine the association between psychological factors and change in pain. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed using a mixed-effects linear model and multiple linear regression. A P value of .05 was considered significant. Eighty-six patients were enrolled in the study. Seventy-five patients completed the study and were included in the final analyses. The mean change in visual analog scale (VAS) pain score 1 month after arthroscopy was -15.4 points (95% confidence interval, -6.0 to -24.7; P psychological factors was identified with univariable correlation analyses. Multivariable analyses identified that a greater pain decrease was associated with a longer duration of preoperative symptoms (P = .054) and lower chronic anxiety (P = .064). This study has identified a weak association between chronic anxiety and the magnitude of pain decrease after arthroscopy for TMD. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of chronic anxiety in the outcome after surgical procedures for the treatment of TMD. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Patient assessment: preparing for a predictable aesthetic outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shamir B; Banerji, Subir; Aulakh, Raman

    2015-01-01

    The flux of patients seeking to make changes to the appearance of their smile zone appears to be on a pathway of continual increase. This is possibly due to an increase in awareness towards oral health, and perhaps social, peer and media pressures, respectively. Cohorts of dental practitioners have thus responded to the latter demands by attending a plethora of educational courses, often focusing on either restorative techniques or other disciplines, notably orthodontics and clear aligners in particular. Consequently, treatment planning and thus treatment provision may carry the risk of being biased or indeed 'outcome driven' whereby the skills and knowledge of any clinician towards a particular faculty may significantly influence the ultimate treatment plan, with the unfortunate tendency sometimes to overlook the role of the interdisciplinary approach of concomitant restorative and contemporary techniques. The role of orthodontics to facilitate the provision of such treatment, along with predictable enamel bonding, has the distinct advantage of providing an acceptable aesthetic result with minimal biological intervention. However, to achieve an optimal result in such cases requires meticulous treatment planning and patient selection to avoid pitfalls with regards to long-term stability and function. This article suggests a standardized approach to patient assessment, with an interdisciplinary perspective in mind. Clinical Relevance: With the growth of patient demand for improving the appearance of the smile, a meticulous assessment protocol is required along with effective interdisciplinary communication. This enables a comprehensive treatment plan to be developed with the correct priorities.

  17. The Effect of Video-Based Tasks in Listening Comprehension of Iranian Pre-Intermediate EFL Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarani, Abdullah; Behtash, Esmail Zare; Nezhad Arani, Saieed Moslemi

    2014-01-01

    This study aims at finding the effect of video-based tasks in improving the listening comprehension ability of Iranian pre-intermediate EFL (English Foreign Language) learners. After determining the level of learners, an experimental and control group, each of 20 participants, were nominated to contribute to the study. From the time the pre-test…

  18. Use of Video-Based Cases as a Medium to Develop Critical Thinking Skills in Health Science Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipp, Genevieve Pinto; Maher, Cathy

    2010-01-01

    One learning strategy that, at present, has not been widely used in graduate Physical Therapy education is "video based cases". The use of visually unfolding case-base experience provides students a unique opportunity to experience real patient scenarios in their classroom environment. The purpose of this paper is to provide data on student…

  19. Effects of Video-Based and Applied Problems on the Procedural Math Skills of Average- and Low-Achieving Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottge, Brian A.; Heinrichs, Mary; Chan, Shih-Yi; Mehta, Zara Dee; Watson, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    This study examined effects of video-based, anchored instruction and applied problems on the ability of 11 low-achieving (LA) and 26 average-achieving (AA) eighth graders to solve computation and word problems. Performance for both groups was higher during anchored instruction than during baseline, but no differences were found between instruction…

  20. Keeping Kids Safe from a Design Perspective: Ethical and Legal Guidelines for Designing a Video-Based App for Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zydney, Janet Mannheimer; Hooper, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Educators can use video to gain invaluable information about their students. A concern is that collecting videos online can create an increased security risk for children. The purpose of this article is to provide ethical and legal guidelines for designing video-based apps for mobile devices and the web. By reviewing the literature, law, and code…

  1. Investigating Students' Use and Adoption of "With-Video Assignments": Lessons Learnt for Video-Based Open Educational Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Ilias O.; Giannakos, Michail N.; Mikalef, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The use of video-based open educational resources is widespread, and includes multiple approaches to implementation. In this paper, the term "with-video assignments" is introduced to portray video learning resources enhanced with assignments. The goal of this study is to examine the factors that influence students' intention to adopt…

  2. Youths' and Parents' Views on the Acceptability and Design of a Video-Based Tobacco Prevention Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahabee-Gittens, E. Melinda; Vaughn, Lisa; Gordon, Judith S.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the acceptability of a brief, video-based parental intervention that modeled parent-child communication about tobacco, delivered within an emergency department (ED) setting. While waiting to be seen by a physician in the ED, 20 parent-youth dyads watched the video together and then private, semi-structured…

  3. Detection Thresholds for Rotation and Translation Gains in 360° Video-Based Telepresence Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jingxin; Langbehn, Eike; Krupke, Dennis; Katzakis, Nicholas; Steinicke, Frank

    2018-04-01

    Telepresence systems have the potential to overcome limits and distance constraints of the real-world by enabling people to remotely visit and interact with each other. However, current telepresence systems usually lack natural ways of supporting interaction and exploration of remote environments (REs). In particular, single webcams for capturing the RE provide only a limited illusion of spatial presence, and movement control of mobile platforms in today's telepresence systems are often restricted to simple interaction devices. One of the main challenges of telepresence systems is to allow users to explore a RE in an immersive, intuitive and natural way, e.g., by real walking in the user's local environment (LE), and thus controlling motions of the robot platform in the RE. However, the LE in which the user's motions are tracked usually provides a much smaller interaction space than the RE. In this context, redirected walking (RDW) is a very suitable approach to solve this problem. However, so far there is no previous work, which explored if and how RDW can be used in video-based 360° telepresence systems. In this article, we conducted two psychophysical experiments in which we have quantified how much humans can be unknowingly redirected on virtual paths in the RE, which are different from the physical paths that they actually walk in the LE. Experiment 1 introduces a discrimination task between local and remote translations, and in Experiment 2 we analyzed the discrimination between local and remote rotations. In Experiment 1 participants performed straightforward translations in the LE that were mapped to straightforward translations in the RE shown as 360° videos, which were manipulated by different gains. Then, participants had to estimate if the remotely perceived translation was faster or slower than the actual physically performed translation. Similarly, in Experiment 2 participants performed rotations in the LE that were mapped to the virtual rotations

  4. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  5. Video-based versus Medical Personnel-led Training for the Knowledge on Condom Use, Partner Notification and Sexually Transmitted Infections in Rural Communities in Thailand: A Randomized Comparison Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nut Kittipongphat

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the knowledge regarding partner notification (PN, condom use (CU and sexually transmitted infections (STIs after video-based or medical personnel-led training. Methods: From December 2016 to January 2017, we conducted an opened-label randomized study in four communities (20 participants/ community in Bangsaphannoi district, Prachuabkirikhan province. In each community, the participants were randomly allocated into Group A (medical personnel-led training or Group B (video-based training. Both trainings covered similar contents which included knowledge about STIs (5 minutes; how to safely notify their partners (10 minutes and techniques of correct condom use (10 minutes. Participants’ knowledge was assessed by five one-best questions for each topic before and after the training. Comparison of scores within group and between groups was done by using Wilcoxon rank sum test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: From 160 eligible participants, 148 could complete the study (74 in Group A and 74 in Group B. Between two groups, there was no difference of participants’ characteristics, including age, education, employment, sex debut, STIs and number of partners. Both training techniques significantly improved participants’ knowledge and there was no difference between them. The lowest median score and least improvement of knowledge were found in PN. Conclusion: At the community level, both video-based training and medical personnel-led training improve the knowledge on PN, CU and STIs with comparable results.

  6. Adaptive metric learning with deep neural networks for video-based facial expression recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Ge, Yubin; Yang, Chao; Jia, Ping

    2018-01-01

    Video-based facial expression recognition has become increasingly important for plenty of applications in the real world. Despite that numerous efforts have been made for the single sequence, how to balance the complex distribution of intra- and interclass variations well between sequences has remained a great difficulty in this area. We propose the adaptive (N+M)-tuplet clusters loss function and optimize it with the softmax loss simultaneously in the training phrase. The variations introduced by personal attributes are alleviated using the similarity measurements of multiple samples in the feature space with many fewer comparison times as conventional deep metric learning approaches, which enables the metric calculations for large data applications (e.g., videos). Both the spatial and temporal relations are well explored by a unified framework that consists of an Inception-ResNet network with long short term memory and the two fully connected layer branches structure. Our proposed method has been evaluated with three well-known databases, and the experimental results show that our method outperforms many state-of-the-art approaches.

  7. Evaluation of a video-based head motion tracking system for dedicated brain PET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, S.; Beylin, D.; Stepanov, P.; Stepanov, A.; Weinberg, I. N.; Schaeffer, S.; Zavarzin, V.; Shaposhnikov, D.; Smith, M. F.

    2015-03-01

    Unintentional head motion during Positron Emission Tomography (PET) data acquisition can degrade PET image quality and lead to artifacts. Poor patient compliance, head tremor, and coughing are examples of movement sources. Head motion due to patient non-compliance can be an issue with the rise of amyloid brain PET in dementia patients. To preserve PET image resolution and quantitative accuracy, head motion can be tracked and corrected in the image reconstruction algorithm. While fiducial markers can be used, a contactless approach is preferable. A video-based head motion tracking system for a dedicated portable brain PET scanner was developed. Four wide-angle cameras organized in two stereo pairs are used for capturing video of the patient's head during the PET data acquisition. Facial points are automatically tracked and used to determine the six degree of freedom head pose as a function of time. The presented work evaluated the newly designed tracking system using a head phantom and a moving American College of Radiology (ACR) phantom. The mean video-tracking error was 0.99±0.90 mm relative to the magnetic tracking device used as ground truth. Qualitative evaluation with the ACR phantom shows the advantage of the motion tracking application. The developed system is able to perform tracking with accuracy close to millimeter and can help to preserve resolution of brain PET images in presence of movements.

  8. A video-based approach to calibrating car-following parameters in VISSIM for urban traffic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengyang Lu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Microscopic simulation models need to be calibrated to represent realistic local traffic conditions. Traditional calibration methods are conducted by searching for the model parameter set that minimizes the discrepancies of certain macroscopic metrics between simulation results and field observations. However, this process could easily lead to inappropriate selection of calibration parameters and thus erroneous simulation results. This paper proposes a video-based approach to incorporate direct measurements of car-following parameters into the process of VISSIM model calibration. The proposed method applies automated video processing techniques to extract vehicle trajectory data and utilizes the trajectory data to determine values of certain car-following parameters in VISSIM. This paper first describes the calibration procedure step by step, and then applies the method to a case study of simulating traffic at a signalized intersection in VISSIM. From the field-collected video footage, trajectories of 1229 through-movement vehicles were extracted and analyzed to calibrate three car-following parameters regarding desired speed, desired acceleration, and safe following distance, respectively. The case study demonstrates the advantages and feasibility of the proposed approach.

  9. Using learning analytics to evaluate a video-based lecture series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K H Vincent; Farooque, Pue; Leydon, Gary; Schwartz, Michael L; Sadler, R Mark; Moeller, Jeremy J

    2018-01-01

    The video-based lecture (VBL), an important component of the flipped classroom (FC) and massive open online course (MOOC) approaches to medical education, has primarily been evaluated through direct learner feedback. Evaluation may be enhanced through learner analytics (LA) - analysis of quantitative audience usage data generated by video-sharing platforms. We applied LA to an experimental series of ten VBLs on electroencephalography (EEG) interpretation, uploaded to YouTube in the model of a publicly accessible MOOC. Trends in view count; total percentage of video viewed and audience retention (AR) (percentage of viewers watching at a time point compared to the initial total) were examined. The pattern of average AR decline was characterized using regression analysis, revealing a uniform linear decline in viewership for each video, with no evidence of an optimal VBL length. Segments with transient increases in AR corresponded to those focused on core concepts, indicative of content requiring more detailed evaluation. We propose a model for applying LA at four levels: global, series, video, and feedback. LA may be a useful tool in evaluating a VBL series. Our proposed model combines analytics data and learner self-report for comprehensive evaluation.

  10. Georgia Tech video-based MS program in health physics/radiological engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Khalik, S.I.; Kahn, B.

    1991-01-01

    For the past several years, the health physics/radiation protection field has experienced a significant shortage of qualified professionals. The shortage is expected to continue for foreseeable future given the continued demand by both nuclear and medical facilities and the expected growth in the areas of waste management and environmental remediation. In response to such a shortage, beginning in the fall of 1984, Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) established a video-based instruction program that enables professionals in the nuclear field to earn a master of science degree in health physics/radiological engineering while working at a distant nuclear facility. The admission criteria and curricular requirements for the program are identical to those for the resident (on-campus) students (except that weekly attendance at departmental seminars is excused). The program is designed for students with undergraduate degrees in health physics, engineering, or appropriate sciences such as physics, chemistry, or biology. A total of 50 quarter credit hours is required, so that a student who takes one course per quarter can complete the program in four years

  11. A Model for Predicting Student Performance on High-Stakes Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dammann, Matthew Walter

    2010-01-01

    This research study examined the use of student achievement on reading and math state assessments to predict success on the science state assessment. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to test the prediction for all students in grades 5 and 8 in a mid-Atlantic state. The prediction model developed from the analysis explored the combined…

  12. Simplified Predictive Models for CO2 Sequestration Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Srikanta; RaviGanesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; Mooney, Douglas; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2014-05-01

    We present results from an ongoing research project that seeks to develop and validate a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The overall research goal is to provide tools for predicting: (a) injection well and formation pressure buildup, and (b) lateral and vertical CO2 plume migration. Simplified modeling approaches that are being developed in this research fall under three categories: (1) Simplified physics-based modeling (SPM), where only the most relevant physical processes are modeled, (2) Statistical-learning based modeling (SLM), where the simulator is replaced with a "response surface", and (3) Reduced-order method based modeling (RMM), where mathematical approximations reduce the computational burden. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. In the first category (SPM), we use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. In the second category (SLM), we develop statistical "proxy models" using the simulation domain described previously with two different approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface fit, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a Kriging metamodel fit using a quadratic trend and Gaussian correlation structure. For roughly the same number of

  13. An assessment on epitope prediction methods for protozoa genomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Resende Daniela M

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epitope prediction using computational methods represents one of the most promising approaches to vaccine development. Reduction of time, cost, and the availability of completely sequenced genomes are key points and highly motivating regarding the use of reverse vaccinology. Parasites of genus Leishmania are widely spread and they are the etiologic agents of leishmaniasis. Currently, there is no efficient vaccine against this pathogen and the drug treatment is highly toxic. The lack of sufficiently large datasets of experimentally validated parasites epitopes represents a serious limitation, especially for trypanomatids genomes. In this work we highlight the predictive performances of several algorithms that were evaluated through the development of a MySQL database built with the purpose of: a evaluating individual algorithms prediction performances and their combination for CD8+ T cell epitopes, B-cell epitopes and subcellular localization by means of AUC (Area Under Curve performance and a threshold dependent method that employs a confusion matrix; b integrating data from experimentally validated and in silico predicted epitopes; and c integrating the subcellular localization predictions and experimental data. NetCTL, NetMHC, BepiPred, BCPred12, and AAP12 algorithms were used for in silico epitope prediction and WoLF PSORT, Sigcleave and TargetP for in silico subcellular localization prediction against trypanosomatid genomes. Results A database-driven epitope prediction method was developed with built-in functions that were capable of: a removing experimental data redundancy; b parsing algorithms predictions and storage experimental validated and predict data; and c evaluating algorithm performances. Results show that a better performance is achieved when the combined prediction is considered. This is particularly true for B cell epitope predictors, where the combined prediction of AAP12 and BCPred12 reached an AUC value

  14. The IntFOLD server: an integrated web resource for protein fold recognition, 3D model quality assessment, intrinsic disorder prediction, domain prediction and ligand binding site prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Daniel B; Buenavista, Maria T; Tetchner, Stuart J; McGuffin, Liam J

    2011-07-01

    The IntFOLD server is a novel independent server that integrates several cutting edge methods for the prediction of structure and function from sequence. Our guiding principles behind the server development were as follows: (i) to provide a simple unified resource that makes our prediction software accessible to all and (ii) to produce integrated output for predictions that can be easily interpreted. The output for predictions is presented as a simple table that summarizes all results graphically via plots and annotated 3D models. The raw machine readable data files for each set of predictions are also provided for developers, which comply with the Critical Assessment of Methods for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) data standards. The server comprises an integrated suite of five novel methods: nFOLD4, for tertiary structure prediction; ModFOLD 3.0, for model quality assessment; DISOclust 2.0, for disorder prediction; DomFOLD 2.0 for domain prediction; and FunFOLD 1.0, for ligand binding site prediction. Predictions from the IntFOLD server were found to be competitive in several categories in the recent CASP9 experiment. The IntFOLD server is available at the following web site: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/.

  15. Assessing the Predictability of Scheduled-Vehicle Travel Times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiesyte, Dalia; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    One of the most desired and challenging services in collective transport systems is the real-time prediction of the near-future travel times of scheduled vehicles, especially public buses, thus improving the experience of the transportation users, who may be able to better schedule their travel......, and also enabling system operators to perform real-time monitoring. While travel-time prediction has been researched extensively during the past decade, the accuracies of existing techniques fall short of what is desired, and proposed mathematical prediction models are often not transferable to other...... systems because the properties of the travel-time-related data of vehicles are highly context-dependent, making the models difficult to fit. We propose a framework for evaluating various predictability types of the data independently of the model, and we also compare predictability analysis results...

  16. Assessment of a method for the prediction of mandibular rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R S; Daniel, F J; Swartz, M; Baumrind, S; Korn, E L

    1987-05-01

    A new method to predict mandibular rotation developed by Skieller and co-workers on a sample of 21 implant subjects with extreme growth patterns has been tested against an alternative sample of 25 implant patients with generally similar mean values, but with less extreme facial patterns. The method, which had been highly successful in retrospectively predicting changes in the sample of extreme subjects, was much less successful in predicting individual patterns of mandibular rotation in the new, less extreme sample. The observation of a large difference in the strength of the predictions for these two samples, even though their mean values were quite similar, should serve to increase our awareness of the complexity of the problem of predicting growth patterns in individual cases.

  17. Developing model-making and model-breaking skills using direct measurement video-based activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vonk, Matthew; Bohacek, Peter; Militello, Cheryl; Iverson, Ellen

    2017-12-01

    This study focuses on student development of two important laboratory skills in the context of introductory college-level physics. The first skill, which we call model making, is the ability to analyze a phenomenon in a way that produces a quantitative multimodal model. The second skill, which we call model breaking, is the ability to critically evaluate if the behavior of a system is consistent with a given model. This study involved 116 introductory physics students in four different sections, each taught by a different instructor. All of the students within a given class section participated in the same instruction (including labs) with the exception of five activities performed throughout the semester. For those five activities, each class section was split into two groups; one group was scaffolded to focus on model-making skills and the other was scaffolded to focus on model-breaking skills. Both conditions involved direct measurement videos. In some cases, students could vary important experimental parameters within the video like mass, frequency, and tension. Data collected at the end of the semester indicate that students in the model-making treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-making skill despite the fact that both groups shared a common physical lab experience. Likewise, the model-breaking treatment group significantly outperformed the other group on the model-breaking skill. This is important because it shows that direct measurement video-based instruction can help students acquire science-process skills, which are critical for scientists, and which are a key part of current science education approaches such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Advanced Placement Physics 1 course.

  18. Student Teachers' Modeling of Acceleration Using a Video-Based Laboratory in Physics Education: A Multimodal Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Trudel

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This exploratory study intends to model kinematics learning of a pair of student teachers when exposed to prescribed teaching strategies in a video-based laboratory. Two student teachers were chosen from the Francophone B.Ed. program of the Faculty of Education of a Canadian university. The study method consisted of having the participants interact with a video-based laboratory to complete two activities for learning properties of acceleration in rectilinear motion. Time limits were placed on the learning activities during which the researcher collected detailed multimodal information from the student teachers' answers to questions, the graphs they produced from experimental data, and the videos taken during the learning sessions. As a result, we describe the learning approach each one followed, the evidence of conceptual change and the difficulties they face in tackling various aspects of the accelerated motion. We then specify advantages and limits of our research and propose recommendations for further study.

  19. Effects of Video-Based Visual Training on Decision-Making and Reactive Agility in Adolescent Football Players

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Nimmerichter

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the trainability of decision-making and reactive agility via video-based visual training in young athletes. Thirty-four members of a national football academy (age: 14.4 ± 0.1 years were randomly assigned to a training (VIS; n = 18 or a control group (CON; n = 16. In addition to the football training, the VIS completed a video-based visual training twice a week over a period of six weeks during the competition phase. Using the temporal occlusion technique, the players were instructed to react on one-on-one situations shown in 40 videos. The number of successful decisions and the response time were measured with a video-based test. In addition, the reactive-agility sprint test was used. VIS significantly improved the number of successful decisions (22.2 ± 3.6 s vs. 29.8 ± 4.5 s; p < 0.001, response time (0.41 ± 0.10 s vs. 0.31 ± 0.10 s; p = 0.006 and reactive agility (2.22 ± 0.33 s vs. 1.94 ± 0.11 s; p = 0.001 pre- vs. post-training. No significant differences were found for CON. The results have shown that video-based visual training improves the time to make decisions as well as reactive agility sprint-time, accompanied by an increase in successful decisions. It remains to be shown whether or not such training can improve simulated or actual game performance.

  20. Assessing Prediction Performance of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Bladder Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Cremer, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is a treatment routinely prescribed to patients diagnosed with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Unfortunately, not all patients are responsive to this treatment and would greatly benefit from an accurate prediction of their expected response to chemotherapy. In this project, I attempt to develop a model that will predict response using tumour microarray data. I show that using my dataset, every method is insufficient at accurately classifying responders and non-respond...

  1. Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alencar Xavier

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr. We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set.

  2. Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M; Rainey, Katy Martin

    2016-08-09

    Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. Copyright © 2016 Xavie et al.

  3. Predicting personal preferences in subjective video quality assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Jari

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the visual quality of a specific test sample (e.g. a video clip) experienced by a specific user, based on the ratings by other users for the same sample and the same user for other samples. A simple linear model and algorithm is presented, where...... the characteristics of each test sample are represented by a set of parameters, and the individual preferences are represented by weights for the parameters. According to the validation experiment performed on public visual quality databases annotated with raw individual scores, the proposed model can predict...

  4. Predicting technology operational availability using technical maturity assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C.R.; Creque, T.R.

    1998-01-01

    A technical maturity assessment method was performed by systems engineers in collaboration with an advisory panel composed of team members from different Department of Energy sites and from different engineering and science disciplines. Various stabilization technologies were assessed annually as to their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. After three years of assessments, several of the technologies are now components of operational systems. A regression analysis of the historical assessments was performed, and it was concluded that the numerical technical maturity score produced by a team of experts can provide a powerful predictor of the time remaining until the operational application of technologies

  5. Video-based self-review: comparing Google Glass and GoPro technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paro, John A M; Nazareli, Rahim; Gurjala, Anadev; Berger, Aaron; Lee, Gordon K

    2015-05-01

    Professionals in a variety of specialties use video-based review as a method of constant self-evaluation. We believe critical self-reflection will allow a surgical trainee to identify methods for improvement throughout residency and beyond. We have used 2 new popular technologies to evaluate their role in accomplishing the previously mentioned objectives. Our group investigated Google Glass and GoPro cameras. Medical students, residents, and faculty were invited to wear each of the devices during a scheduled operation. After the case, each participant was asked to comment on a number of features of the device including comfort, level of distraction/interference with operating, ease of video acquisition, and battery life. Software and hardware specifications were compiled and compared by the authors. A "proof-of-concept" was also performed using the video-conferencing abilities of Google Glass to perform a simulated flap check. The technical specifications of the 2 cameras favor GoPro over Google Glass. Glass records in 720p with 5-MP still shots, and the GoPro records in 1080p with 12-MP still shots. Our tests of battery life showed more than 2 hours of continuous video with GoPro, and less than 1 hour for Glass. Favorable features of Google Glass included comfort and relative ease of use; they could not comfortably wear loupes while operating, and would have preferred longer hands-free video recording. The GoPro was slightly more cumbersome and required a nonsterile team member to activate all pictures or video; however, loupes could be worn. Google Glass was successfully used in the hospital for a simulated flap check, with overall audio and video being transmitted--fine detail was lost, however. There are benefits and limitations to each of the devices tested. Google Glass is in its infancy and may gain a larger intraoperative role in the future. We plan to use Glass as a way for trainees to easily acquire intraoperative footage as a means to "review tape" and

  6. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  7. Assessment of saddle-point-mass predictions for astrophysical applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelic, A.; Schmidt, K.H.

    2005-07-01

    Using available experimental data on fission barriers and ground-state masses, a detailed study on the predictions of different models concerning the isospin dependence of saddle-point masses is performed. Evidence is found that several macroscopic models yield unrealistic saddle-point masses for very neutron-rich nuclei, which are relevant for the r-process nucleosynthesis. (orig.)

  8. Predicting responsiveness to intervention in dyslexia using dynamic assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aravena, S.; Tijms, J.; Snellings, P.; van der Molen, M.W.

    In the current study we examined the value of a dynamic test for predicting responsiveness to reading intervention for children diagnosedwith dyslexia. The test consisted of a 20-minute training aimed at learning eight basic letter–speech sound correspondences within an artificial orthography,

  9. Assessment of indicators for predicting choledocholithiasis before laparoscopic cholecystectomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, Mohammed K.

    1998-01-01

    The objective of this report was to study the sensitivity of indicators used for predicting bile duct stones and their endoscopic removal before laparoscopic cholecystectomy. A retrospective study was conducted on 104 patients who successfully underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram (ERCP) before laparoscopic cholecysectomy at Riyadh Medical Complex between 1992 and 1994 (1412H-1414H). Six indicators --- jaundice, biliary pancreatitis, stones in bile duct on sonography, dilated bile duct (>7mm) on ultrasonography, dilated bile duct with deranged liver function test and deranged liver function test without jaundice ---were used for suspecting choledocholithiasis and endoscopic removal before laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Ultrasound correctly predicted bile duct stone in 75%, followed by dilated bile duct with deranged liver function test (46%). Clinical jaundice and biliary pancreatitis were equally sensitive indicators (42% each). Sensitivity of only dilated bile duct on ultrasonography in predicting duct stone was 36%. Deranged liver function without jaundice was the least sensitive (22%) of the predictors. Overall, these indicators correctly diagnosed bile duct stones in 34% of patients. Until laparoscopic exploration of bile duct or a noninvasive technique, such as magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatogram (MRCP), is widely available, these predictors will help in selecting patients with bile duct stones for preoperative removal. Other workers have suggested combining these indicators to improve the predictive value. (author)

  10. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  11. Orthology prediction methods: a quality assessment using curated protein families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trachana, Kalliopi; Larsson, Tomas A; Powell, Sean; Chen, Wei-Hua; Doerks, Tobias; Muller, Jean; Bork, Peer

    2011-10-01

    The increasing number of sequenced genomes has prompted the development of several automated orthology prediction methods. Tests to evaluate the accuracy of predictions and to explore biases caused by biological and technical factors are therefore required. We used 70 manually curated families to analyze the performance of five public methods in Metazoa. We analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and quantified the impact of biological and technical challenges. From the latter part of the analysis, genome annotation emerged as the largest single influencer, affecting up to 30% of the performance. Generally, most methods did well in assigning orthologous group but they failed to assign the exact number of genes for half of the groups. The publicly available benchmark set (http://eggnog.embl.de/orthobench/) should facilitate the improvement of current orthology assignment protocols, which is of utmost importance for many fields of biology and should be tackled by a broad scientific community. Copyright © 2011 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Information Fusion for High Level Situation Assessment and Prediction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ji, Qiang

    2007-01-01

    .... In addition, we developed algorithms for performing active information fusion to improve both fusion accuracy and efficiency so that decision making and situation assessment can be made in a timely and efficient manner...

  13. FACTORS PREDICTING CONSUMERS' ASSESSMENT OF ADVERTISEMENTS ON SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES

    OpenAIRE

    Hossam Deraz; Gabriel Baffour Awuah; Desalegn Abraha Gebrekidan

    2015-01-01

    Marketers act on social networking sites (SNSs) in order to be more efficient in merchandising their products and/or services. Even so, the scope of the published studies regarding the assessment of advertisements on social networking sites (SNAs) is limited. Consequently, the present study aimed to consider credibility and interactivity, in addition to information, entertainment and irritation values, as main factors for consumers’ assessment of SNAs, as perceived by SNSs’ users. An analysis...

  14. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

    OpenAIRE

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

  15. Assessment of CFD capability for prediction of hypersonic shock interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Doyle; Longo, José; Drikakis, Dimitris; Gaitonde, Datta; Lani, Andrea; Nompelis, Ioannis; Reimann, Bodo; Walpot, Louis

    2012-01-01

    The aerothermodynamic loadings associated with shock wave boundary layer interactions (shock interactions) must be carefully considered in the design of hypersonic air vehicles. The capability of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software to accurately predict hypersonic shock wave laminar boundary layer interactions is examined. A series of independent computations performed by researchers in the US and Europe are presented for two generic configurations (double cone and cylinder) and compared with experimental data. The results illustrate the current capabilities and limitations of modern CFD methods for these flows.

  16. A new measure-correlate-predict approach for resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Dept. of Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics, Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    In order to find reasonable candidate site for wind farms, it is of great importance to be able to calculate the wind resource at potential sites. One way to solve this problem is to measure wind speed and direction at the site, and use these measurements to predict the resource. If the measurements at the potential site cover less than e.g. one year, which most likely will be the case, it is not possible to get a reliable estimate of the long-term resource, using this approach. If long-term measurements from e.g. some nearby meteorological station are available, however, then statistical methods can be used to find a relation between the measurements at the site and at the meteorological station. This relation can then be used to transform the long-term measurements to the potential site, and the resource can be calculated using the transformed measurements. Here, a varying-coefficient model, estimated using local regression, is applied in order to establish a relation between the measurements. The approach is evaluated using measurements from two sites, located approximately two kilometres apart, and the results show that the resource in this case can be predicted accurately, although this approach has serious shortcomings. (au)

  17. Law Enforcement Use of Threat Assessments to Predict Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tracey Michelle

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative, descriptive multiple case study was to explore what process, policies and procedures, or set of empirically supported norms governed law enforcement officers in a selected county in the southwest region of the United States when threat assessments were conducted on potentially violent subjects threatening mass…

  18. Predictive no-reference assessment of video quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Torres Vega, M.; Mocanu, D.C.; Stavrou, S.; Liotta, A.

    2017-01-01

    Among the various means to evaluate the quality of video streams, light-weight No-Reference (NR) methods have low computation and may be executed on thin clients. Thus, these methods would be perfect candidates in cases of real-time quality assessment, automated quality control and in adaptive

  19. Prediction and assessment of depression rates in patients with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of the study is to assess, in advanced lung cancer patients, the frequency of depression and the related demographic and biomedical factors before diagnosis and after the initial treatment period. Seventy-nine patients from among 105 advanced lung cancer patients diagnosed between July 1994 and April 2003 in ...

  20. Assessment and prediction of speech quality in telecommunications

    CERN Document Server

    Möller, Sebastian

    2000-01-01

    The quality of a telecommunication voice service is largely inftuenced by the quality of the transmission system. Nevertheless, the analysis, synthesis and prediction of quality should take into account its multidimensional aspects. Quality can be regarded as a point where the perceived characteristics and the desired or expected ones meet. A schematic is presented which classifies different entities which contribute to the quality of a service, taking into account conversational, user as weIl as service related contributions. Starting from this concept, perceptively relevant constituents of speech communication quality are identified. The perceptive factors result from ele­ ments of the transmission configuration. A simulation model is developed and implemented which allows the most relevant parameters of traditional trans­ mission configurations to be manipulated, in real time and for the conversation situation. Inputs into the simulation are instrumentally measurable quality elements commonly used in tra...

  1. Assessment of Mars Exploration Rover Landing Site Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golombek, M. P.

    2005-05-01

    Comprehensive analyses of remote sensing data during the 3-year effort to select the Mars Exploration Rover landing sites at Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum correctly predicted the safe and trafficable surfaces explored by the two rovers. Gusev crater was predicted to be a relatively low relief surface that was comparably dusty, but less rocky than the Viking landing sites. Available data for Meridiani Planum indicated a very flat plain composed of basaltic sand to granules and hematite that would look completely unlike any of the existing landing sites with a dark, low albedo surface, little dust and very few rocks. Orbital thermal inertia measurements of 315 J m-2 s-0.5 K-1 at Gusev suggested surfaces dominated by duricrust to cemented soil-like materials or cohesionless sand or granules, which is consistent with observed soil characteristics and measured thermal inertias from the surface. THEMIS thermal inertias along the traverse at Gusev vary from 285 at the landing site to 330 around Bonneville rim and show systematic variations that can be related to the observed increase in rock abundance (5-30%). Meridiani has an orbital bulk inertia of ~200, similar to measured surface inertias that correspond to observed surfaces dominated by 0.2 mm sand size particles. Rock abundance derived from orbital thermal differencing techniques suggested that Meridiani Planum would have very low rock abundance, consistent with the rock free plain traversed by Opportunity. Spirit landed in an 8% orbital rock abundance pixel, consistent with the measured 7% of the surface covered by rocks >0.04 m diameter at the landing site, which is representative of the plains away from craters. The orbital albedo of the Spirit traverse varies from 0.19 to 0.30, consistent with surface measurements in and out of dust devil tracks. Opportunity is the first landing in a low albedo portion of Mars as seen from orbit, which is consistent with the dark, dust-free surface and measured albedos. The

  2. Assessment method to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reardon, P.T.; Eggers, R.F.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-06-01

    A method has been developed to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms of material loss in a nuclear facility. The computer program DETRES-1 was developed. The program first assigns the true values of control unit components receipts, shipments, beginning and ending inventories. A normal random number generator is used to generate measured values of each component. A loss estimator is calculated from the control unit's measured values. If the loss estimator triggers a detection alarm, a response is simulated. The response simulation is divided into two phases. The first phase is to simulate remeasurement of the components of the detection loss estimator using the same or better measurement methods or inferences from surrounding control units. If this phase of response continues to indicate a material loss, phase of response simulating a production shutdown and comprehensive cleanout is initiated. A new loss estimator is found, and tested against the alarm thresholds. If the estimator value is below the threshold, the original detection alarm is considered resolved; if above the threshold, an unresolved alarm has occurred. A tally is kept of valid alarms, unresolved false alarms, and failure to alarm upon a true loss

  3. Prediction of health risks from accidents: A comprehensive assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacFarlane, D.R.; Yuan, Y.C.

    1992-01-01

    We have developed two computer programs to predict radiation risks to individuals and/or the collective population from exposures to accidental releases of radioactive materials. When used together, these two codes provide a consistent, comprehensive tool to estimate not only the risks to specific individuals but also the distribution of risks in the exposed population and the total number of individuals within a specific level of risk. Prompt and latent fatalities are estimated for the exposed population, and from these, the risk to an average individual can be derived. Uncertainty in weather conditions is considered by estimating both the ''median'' and the ''maximum'' population doses based on the frequency distribution of wind speeds and stabilities for a given site. The importance of including all dispersible particles (particles smaller than about 100 μm) for dose and health risk analyses from nonfiltered releases for receptor locations within about 10 km from a release has been investigated. The dose contribution of the large particles (> 10 μm) has been shown to be substantially greater than those from the small particles for the dose receptors in various release and exposure conditions. These conditions include, particularly, elevated releases, strong wind weather, and exposure pathways associated with ground-deposited material over extended periods of time

  4. Quantitative accuracy assessment of thermalhydraulic code predictions with SARBM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years, the nuclear reactor industry has focused significant attention on nuclear reactor systems code accuracy and uncertainty issues. A few methods suitable to quantify code accuracy of thermalhydraulic code calculations were proposed and applied in the past. In this study a Stochastic Approximation Ratio Based Method (SARBM) was adapted and proposed for accuracy quantification. The objective of the study was to qualify the SARBM. The study compare the accuracy obtained by SARBM with the results obtained by widely used Fast Fourier Transform Based Method (FFTBM). The methods were applied to RELAP5/MOD3.2 code calculations of various BETHSY experiments. The obtained results showed that the SARBM was able to satisfactorily predict the accuracy of the calculated trends when visually comparing plots and comparing the results with the qualified FFTBM. The analysis also showed that the new figure-of-merit called accuracy factor (AF) is more convenient than stochastic approximation ratio for combining single variable accuracy's into total accuracy. The accuracy results obtained for the selected tests suggest that the acceptability factors for the SAR method were reasonably defined. The results also indicate that AF is a useful quantitative measure of accuracy.(author)

  5. Do daily fluctuations in inhibitory control predict alcohol consumption? : An ecological momentary assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jones, Andrew; Tiplady, Brian; Houben, Katrijn; Nederkoorn, Chantal; Field, Matt

    RATIONALE: Deficient inhibitory control is predictive of increased alcohol consumption in the laboratory; however, little is known about this relationship in naturalistic, real-world settings. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we implemented ecological momentary assessment methods to investigate the

  6. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg -1 d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg -1 d.m. (0.01 mol dm -3 CaCl 2 ), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg -1 d.m. (1 mol dm -3 NH 4 NO 3 ). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  7. Driving and Low Vision: Validity of Assessments for Predicting Performance of Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, J. Graham; Jutai, Jeffrey W.; Russell-Minda, Elizabeth; Evans, Mal

    2008-01-01

    The authors conducted a systematic review to examine whether vision-related assessments can predict the driving performance of individuals who have low vision. The results indicate that measures of visual field, contrast sensitivity, cognitive and attention-based tests, and driver screening tools have variable utility for predicting real-world…

  8. Computational data sciences for assessment and prediction of climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    Climate extremes may be defined inclusively as severe weather events or large shifts in global or regional weather patterns which may be caused or exacerbated by natural climate variability or climate change. This area of research arguably represents one of the largest knowledge-gaps in climate science which is relevant for informing resource managers and policy makers. While physics-based climate models are essential in view of non-stationary and nonlinear dynamical processes, their current pace of uncertainty reduction may not be adequate for urgent stakeholder needs. The structure of the models may in some cases preclude reduction of uncertainty for critical processes at scales or for the extremes of interest. On the other hand, methods based on complex networks, extreme value statistics, machine learning, and space-time data mining, have demonstrated significant promise to improve scientific understanding and generate enhanced predictions. When combined with conceptual process understanding at multiple spatiotemporal scales and designed to handle massive data, interdisciplinary data science methods and algorithms may complement or supplement physics-based models. Specific examples from the prior literature and our ongoing work suggests how data-guided improvements may be possible, for example, in the context of ocean meteorology, climate oscillators, teleconnections, and atmospheric process understanding, which in turn can improve projections of regional climate, precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones in an useful and interpretable fashion. A community-wide effort is motivated to develop and adapt computational data science tools for translating climate model simulations to information relevant for adaptation and policy, as well as for improving our scientific understanding of climate extremes from both observed and model-simulated data.

  9. Video-based peer feedback through social networking for robotic surgery simulation: a multicenter randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Stacey C; Chiang, Alexander; Shah, Galaxy; Kwan, Lorna; Montgomery, Jeffrey S; Karam, Amer; Tarnay, Christopher; Guru, Khurshid A; Hu, Jim C

    2015-05-01

    To examine the feasibility and outcomes of video-based peer feedback through social networking to facilitate robotic surgical skill acquisition. The acquisition of surgical skills may be challenging for novel techniques and/or those with prolonged learning curves. Randomized controlled trial involving 41 resident physicians performing the Tubes (Da Vinci Intuitive Surgical, Sunnyvale, CA) simulator exercise with versus without peer feedback of video-recorded performance through a social networking Web page. Data collected included simulator exercise score, time to completion, and comfort and satisfaction with robotic surgery simulation. There were no baseline differences between the intervention group (n = 20) and controls (n = 21). The intervention group showed improvement in mean scores from session 1 to sessions 2 and 3 (60.7 vs 75.5, P feedback subjects were more comfortable with robotic surgery than controls (90% vs 62%, P = 0.021) and expressed greater satisfaction with the learning experience (100% vs 67%, P = 0.014). Of the intervention subjects, 85% found that peer feedback was useful and 100% found it effective. Video-based peer feedback through social networking appears to be an effective paradigm for surgical education and accelerates the robotic surgery learning curve during simulation.

  10. Assessment of subchannel code ASSERT-PV for flow-distribution predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nava-Dominguez, A.; Rao, Y.F.; Waddington, G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Assessment of the subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow distribution. • Open literature and in-house experimental data to quantify ASSERT-PV predictions. • Model changes assessed against vertical and horizontal flow experiments. • Improvement of flow-distribution predictions under CANDU-relevant conditions. - Abstract: This paper reports an assessment of the recently released subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow-distribution in fuel bundles, including subchannel void fraction, quality and mass fluxes. Experimental data from open literature and from in-house tests are used to assess the flow-distribution models in ASSERT-PV 3.2. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 are compared to those from previous code versions. Separate-effects sensitivity studies are performed to quantify the contribution of each flow-distribution model change or enhancement to the improvement in flow-distribution prediction. The assessment demonstrates significant improvement in the prediction of flow-distribution in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles

  11. Assessment of subchannel code ASSERT-PV for flow-distribution predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nava-Dominguez, A., E-mail: navadoma@aecl.ca; Rao, Y.F., E-mail: raoy@aecl.ca; Waddington, G.M., E-mail: waddingg@aecl.ca

    2014-08-15

    Highlights: • Assessment of the subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow distribution. • Open literature and in-house experimental data to quantify ASSERT-PV predictions. • Model changes assessed against vertical and horizontal flow experiments. • Improvement of flow-distribution predictions under CANDU-relevant conditions. - Abstract: This paper reports an assessment of the recently released subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for the prediction of flow-distribution in fuel bundles, including subchannel void fraction, quality and mass fluxes. Experimental data from open literature and from in-house tests are used to assess the flow-distribution models in ASSERT-PV 3.2. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 are compared to those from previous code versions. Separate-effects sensitivity studies are performed to quantify the contribution of each flow-distribution model change or enhancement to the improvement in flow-distribution prediction. The assessment demonstrates significant improvement in the prediction of flow-distribution in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles.

  12. Does organizational justice predict empowerment? Nurses assess their work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuokkanen, Liisa; Leino-Kilpi, Helena; Katajisto, Jouko; Heponiemi, Tarja; Sinervo, Timo; Elovainio, Marko

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of the study was to explore how nurses assess their empowerment and clarify organizational justice compared to other work-related factors. In addition, we examined the major variables pertinent to empowerment. Cross-sectional survey data were used. A total of 2,152 nurses returned the completed questionnaire. The instruments consisted of nurse empowerment, organizational justice, job control, and possibilities for developing work. The data analysis was based on descriptive statistics and further statistical tests. Organizational justice and empowerment had a clear correlation. Job control, possibilities for developing work and organizational justice were statistically significant predictors of nurse empowerment. Organizational justice and the possibility to use one's individual skills at work are significant factors in staff activity and its development in nursing. They increase the level of empowerment and commitment as well as motivation to work. The results of this study confirm that nurses regard organizational justice as highly important. We can facilitate both work-related empowerment and organizational justice by creating and maintaining a culture of fairness and justice. Employees should be heard and involved more in the planning and decision making of work. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  13. Biodiversity in environmental assessment-current practice and tools for prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontier, Mikael; Balfors, Berit; Moertberg, Ulla

    2006-01-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity. Environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment are essential instruments used in physical planning to address such problems. Yet there are no well-developed methods for quantifying and predicting impacts of fragmentation on biodiversity. In this study, a literature review was conducted on GIS-based ecological models that have potential as prediction tools for biodiversity assessment. Further, a review of environmental impact statements for road and railway projects from four European countries was performed, to study how impact prediction concerning biodiversity issues was addressed. The results of the study showed the existing gap between research in GIS-based ecological modelling and current practice in biodiversity assessment within environmental assessment

  14. Video-Based Learning vs Traditional Lecture for Instructing Emergency Medicine Residents in Disaster Medicine Principles of Mass Triage, Decontamination, and Personal Protective Equipment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Henry A; Trang, Karen; Chason, Kevin W; Biddinger, Paul D

    2018-02-01

    Introduction Great demands have been placed on disaster medicine educators. There is a need to develop innovative methods to educate Emergency Physicians in the ever-expanding body of disaster medicine knowledge. The authors sought to demonstrate that video-based learning (VBL) could be a promising alternative to traditional learning methods for teaching disaster medicine core competencies. Hypothesis/Problem The objective was to compare VBL to traditional lecture (TL) for instructing Emergency Medicine residents in the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP; Irving, Texas USA) disaster medicine core competencies of patient triage and decontamination. A randomized, controlled pilot study compared two methods of instruction for mass triage, decontamination, and personal protective equipment (PPE). Emergency Medicine resident learning was measured with a knowledge quiz, a Likert scale measuring comfort, and a practical exercise. An independent samples t-test compared the scoring of the VBL with the TL group. Twenty-six residents were randomized to VBL (n=13) or TL (n=13). Knowledge score improvement following video (14.9%) versus lecture (14.1%) did not differ significantly between the groups (P=.74). Comfort score improvement also did not differ (P=.64) between video (18.3%) and lecture groups (15.8%). In the practical skills assessment, the VBL group outperformed the TL group overall (70.4% vs 55.5%; Plearning vs traditional lecture for instructing emergency medicine residents in disaster medicine principles of mass triage, decontamination, and personal protective equipment. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(1):7-12.

  15. Damage assessment of low-cycle fatigue by crack growth prediction. Development of growth prediction model and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki; Kawakubo, Masahiro

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the fatigue damage was assumed to be equivalent to the crack initiation and its growth, and fatigue life was assessed by predicting the crack growth. First, a low-cycle fatigue test was conducted in air at room temperature under constant cyclic strain range of 1.2%. The crack initiation and change in crack size during the test were examined by replica investigation. It was found that a crack of 41.2 μm length was initiated almost at the beginning of the test. The identified crack growth rate was shown to correlate well with the strain intensity factor, whose physical meaning was discussed in this study. The fatigue life prediction model (equation) under constant strain range was derived by integrating the crack growth equation defined using the strain intensity factor, and the predicted fatigue lives were almost identical to those obtained by low-cycle fatigue tests. The change in crack depth predicted by the equation also agreed well with the experimental results. Based on the crack growth prediction model, it was shown that the crack size would be less than 0.1 mm even when the estimated fatigue damage exceeded the critical value of the design fatigue curve, in which a twenty-fold safety margin was used for the assessment. It was revealed that the effect of component size and surface roughness, which have been investigated empirically by fatigue tests, could be reasonably explained by considering the crack initiation and growth. Furthermore, the environmental effect on the fatigue life was shown to be brought about by the acceleration of crack growth. (author)

  16. New encouraging developments in contact prediction: Assessment of the CASP11 results

    KAUST Repository

    Monastyrskyy, Bohdan

    2015-10-01

    © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This article provides a report on the state-of-the-art in the prediction of intra-molecular residue-residue contacts in proteins based on the assessment of the predictions submitted to the CASP11 experiment. The assessment emphasis is placed on the accuracy in predicting long-range contacts. Twenty-nine groups participated in contact prediction in CASP11. At least eight of them used the recently developed evolutionary coupling techniques, with the top group (CONSIP2) reaching precision of 27% on target proteins that could not be modeled by homology. This result indicates a breakthrough in the development of methods based on the correlated mutation approach. Successful prediction of contacts was shown to be practically helpful in modeling three-dimensional structures; in particular target T0806 was modeled exceedingly well with accuracy not yet seen for ab initio targets of this size (>250 residues).

  17. Predicting Pre-Service Teachers' Intention of Implementing Peer Assessment for Low-Achieving Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Su Yon; Cho, Young Hoan

    2016-01-01

    Despite the benefits of peer assessment, many teachers are not willing to implement it, particularly for low-achieving students. This study used the theory of planned behaviour to predict pre-service teachers' intention to use peer assessment for low-achieving students. A total of 229 pre-service teachers in Singapore participated in the survey…

  18. The importance of virulence prediction and gene networks in microbial risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wassenaar, Gertrude Maria; Gamieldien, Junaid; Shatkin, JoAnne

    2007-01-01

    For microbial risk assessment, it is necessary to recognize and predict Virulence of bacterial pathogens, including their ability to contaminate foods. Hazard characterization requires data on strain variability regarding virulence and survival during food processing. Moreover, information...... and characterization of microbial hazards, including emerging pathogens, in the context of microbial risk assessment....

  19. A comparison of the predictive properties of nine sex offender risk assessment instruments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smid, W.J.; Kamphuis, J.H.; Wever, E.C.; van Beek, D.J.

    2014-01-01

    Sex offender treatment is most effective when tailored to risk-need-responsivity principles, which dictate that treatment levels should match risk levels as assessed by structured risk assessment instruments. The predictive properties, missing values, and interrater agreement of the scores of 9

  20. The Utility of Risk Assessment Instruments for the Prediction of Recidivism in Sexual Homicide Perpetrators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andreas; Rettenberger, Martin; Habermann, Niels; Berner, Wolfgang; Eher, Reinhard; Briken, Peer

    2012-01-01

    To examine the predictive accuracy of four well established risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, and Static-99) in an important subgroup of sexual offenders, these instruments were assessed retrospectively based on information from forensic psychiatric court reports in a sample of 90 released male sexual homicide offenders (out of…

  1. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  2. ROBUSTNESS AND PREDICTION ACCURACY OF MACHINE LEARNING FOR OBJECTIVE VISUAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Hines, Andrew; Kendrick, Paul; Barri, Adriaan; Narwaria, Manish; Redi, Judith A.

    2014-01-01

    Machine Learning (ML) is a powerful tool to support the development of objective visual quality assessment metrics, serving as a substitute model for the perceptual mechanisms acting in visual quality appreciation. Nevertheless, the reliability of ML-based techniques within objective quality assessment metrics is often questioned. In this study, the robustness of ML in supporting objective quality assessment is investigated, specifically when the feature set adopted for prediction is suboptim...

  3. Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D; Street, Melissa E; Syed, S Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Stratford, Paul W; Miller, Patricia A

    2011-01-01

    To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke-McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from -0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted.

  4. Estimating the Accuracy of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment Predictive Equations for Stroke Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Mia; Ramsaran, Kalinda D.; Street, Melissa E.; Syed, S. Noreen; Barclay-Goddard, Ruth; Miller, Patricia A.

    2011-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: To estimate the predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness of the Chedoke–McMaster Stroke Assessment (CMSA) predictive equations. Method: A longitudinal prognostic study using historical data obtained from 104 patients admitted post cerebrovascular accident was undertaken. Data were abstracted for all patients undergoing rehabilitation post stroke who also had documented admission and discharge CMSA scores. Published predictive equations were used to determine predicted outcomes. To determine the accuracy and clinical usefulness of the predictive model, shrinkage coefficients and predictions with 95% confidence bands were calculated. Results: Complete data were available for 74 patients with a mean age of 65.3±12.4 years. The shrinkage values for the six Impairment Inventory (II) dimensions varied from −0.05 to 0.09; the shrinkage value for the Activity Inventory (AI) was 0.21. The error associated with predictive values was greater than ±1.5 stages for the II dimensions and greater than ±24 points for the AI. Conclusions: This study shows that the large error associated with the predictions (as defined by the confidence band) for the CMSA II and AI limits their clinical usefulness as a predictive measure. Further research to establish predictive models using alternative statistical procedures is warranted. PMID:22654239

  5. Preservice music teachers' predictions, perceptions, and assessment of students with special needs: the need for training in student assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanWeelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' levels of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders (EDBD) and students with acute cognitive delays (ACD). The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers' perceptions of all students' levels of mastery increased from prediction scores overall. Additionally, preservice teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' levels of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Implications for music therapists, as consultants in special education, are discussed.

  6. Effect of Video-Based versus Personalized Instruction on Errors during Elastic Tubing Exercises for Musculoskeletal Pain: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Jay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Workplace interventions have shown beneficial results of resistance training for chronic pain in the neck, shoulder, and arm. However, studies have relied on experienced exercise instructors, which may not be an available resource at most workplaces. The objective of this study is to evaluate the technical performance level of upper limb rehabilitation exercises following video-based versus personalized exercise instruction. We recruited 38 laboratory technicians and office workers with neck/shoulder pain for a two-week exercise training period receiving either (1 personal and video or (2 video only instruction in four typical neck/shoulder/arm rehabilitation exercises using elastic tubing. At a 2-week follow-up, the participants’ technical execution was assessed by two blinded physical therapists using a reliable error assessment tool. The error assessment was based on ordinal deviation of joint position from the ideal position of the shoulder, elbow, and wrist in a single plane by visual observation. Of the four exercises only unilateral shoulder external rotation had a higher normalized error score in the V group of 22.19 (9.30 to 12.64 (6.94 in the P group (P=0.002. For the remaining three exercises the normalized error score did not differ. In conclusion, when instructing simple exercises to reduce musculoskeletal pain the use of video material is a cost-effective solution that can be implemented easily in corporations with challenging work schedules not allowing for a fixed time of day to go see a personal trainer.

  7. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  8. Improving Multi-Sensor Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Recovery Assessment Using Gravimetry Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakouchak, Amir; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2015-04-01

    Development of reliable drought monitoring, prediction and recovery assessment tools are fundamental to water resources management. This presentation focuses on how gravimetry information can improve drought assessment. First, we provide an overview of the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) which offers near real-time drought information using remote sensing observations and model simulations. Then, we present a framework for integration of satellite gravimetry information for improving drought prediction and recovery assessment. The input data include satellite-based and model-based precipitation, soil moisture estimates and equivalent water height. Previous studies show that drought assessment based on one single indicator may not be sufficient. For this reason, GIDMaPS provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) and the Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) which combines SPI and SSI probabilistically. MSDI incorporates the meteorological and agricultural drought conditions and provides composite multi-index drought information for overall characterization of droughts. GIDMaPS includes a seasonal prediction component based on a statistical persistence-based approach. The prediction component of GIDMaPS provides the empirical probability of drought for different severity levels. In this presentation we present a new component in which the drought prediction information based on SPI, SSI and MSDI are conditioned on equivalent water height obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Using a Bayesian approach, GRACE information is used to evaluate persistence of drought. Finally, the deficit equivalent water height based on GRACE is used for assessing drought recovery. In this presentation, both monitoring and prediction components of GIDMaPS will be discussed, and the results from 2014

  9. Teaching social perception skills to adolescents with autism and intellectual disabilities using video-based group instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauch, Tiffany A; Plavnick, Joshua B; Sankar, Sudha; Gallagher, Annie C

    2018-05-17

    Few interventions focus on teaching social skills to adolescents with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and intellectual disabilities (ID) that are consistently used during interactions with peers ( Carter et al., 2014). The present study evaluated the effects of video-based group instruction (VGI) on the acquisition of social perception skills of five adolescents with ASD or ID in a public school setting. Social perception involves observing affective behaviors of others, discriminating relevant environmental stimuli, and differentially reinforcing the affective behavior of another person. Typically developing peers supported VGI implementation as social partners for participants. A multiple probe design across behaviors demonstrated the effectiveness of VGI for teaching social perception skills. Four of five participants acquired and maintained the targeted social perception skills, and we observed some transfer to a nontreatment setting. Results of this study suggest VGI may support the acquisition of social perception among adolescents with ASD or ID. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. Lessons Learned from Deploying a Video-Based Web 2.0 Platform in an Executive Education Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Katrina; Angehrn, Albert A.

    Although IT has been very successful in enabling distributed, collaborative learning and knowledge creation in open-source communities, its promise in other contexts is still an open question. In this paper, we describe the deployment of a video-based Web2.0 platform in an executive education context. The platform, which we developed, makes extensive use of video, profiling, game dynamics, agents and network visualizations in order to capture the attention and involvement of the learning community members. Our goal was to provide executive education participants with an attractive, interactive platform for extending their learning and networking beyond the classroom. This experience has allowed us to identify three main barriers to Web2.0 inter-organizational learning and collaboration in executive education: technological barriers, motivational barriers and the inter-organizational aspect itself.

  11. Improving Learning Outcomes in Office Automation Subjects Through Development of Video-Based Media Learning Operating Microsoft Publisher 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irma Mastumasari

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to produce instructional media video-based operate Microsoft Publisher 2010 which is validated by experts for student at class X of Office Administration in SMKN 1 Malang through experimental class and control class. This study uses Research and Development research design (R & D through 8 steps, namely: (1 research and information gathering early, (2 planning, (3 product development, (4 validation expert, (5 product revision, (6 the trial court (small groups, (7 the revision of the product, and (8 field trials (large group. Results of validation by material experts, media experts and 12 students, the media is expressed very valid and can be used. Based on t test, it is known that a significant difference between the average student learning outcomes experimental class and control class, so that learning media can be said to be effective for use in the learning process.

  12. A physical exercise program using music-supported video-based training in older adults in nursing homes suffering from dementia: a feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spildooren, Joke; Speetjens, Ite; Abrahams, Johan; Feys, Peter; Timmermans, Annick

    2018-04-28

    Motivation towards an exercise program is higher in a small group setting in comparison to individual therapy. Due to attentional problems, group exercises are difficult for people with Alzheimer disease (AD). This study evaluates the feasibility of a music-supported video-based group exercise program in older adults suffering from AD. Five participants with moderate AD were recruited from a nursing home. A progressive physical exercise program using a video-based training with musical accompaniment was performed and digitally recorded to investigate the adherence and performed accuracy of the exercises. The overall participation during the exercises was 84.1%. The quality of the performance was for all exercises above the cut-off scores. A music-supported video-based group exercise program is feasible in persons with AD. The participants were motivated and the expectations towards the program increased over time. Music seemed an important factor for attention in participants with AD.

  13. Comparative values of medical school assessments in the prediction of internship performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming; Vermillion, Michelle

    2018-02-01

    Multiple undergraduate achievements have been used for graduate admission consideration. Their relative values in the prediction of residency performance are not clear. This study compared the contributions of major undergraduate assessments to the prediction of internship performance. Internship performance ratings of the graduates of a medical school were collected from 2012 to 2015. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were used to examine the predictive values of undergraduate measures assessing basic and clinical sciences knowledge and clinical performances, after controlling for differences in the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). Four hundred eighty (75%) graduates' archived data were used in the study. Analyses revealed that clinical competencies, assessed by the USMLE Step 2 CK, NBME medicine exam, and an eight-station objective structured clinical examination (OSCE), were strong predictors of internship performance. Neither the USMLE Step 1 nor the inpatient internal medicine clerkship evaluation predicted internship performance. The undergraduate assessments as a whole showed a significant collective relationship with internship performance (ΔR 2  = 0.12, p < 0.001). The study supports the use of clinical competency assessments, instead of pre-clinical measures, in graduate admission consideration. It also provides validity evidence for OSCE scores in the prediction of workplace performance.

  14. Predictive models for the assessment of occupational exposure to chemicals: A new challenge for employers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Piotr Gromiec

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Employers are obliged to carry out and document the risk associated with the use of chemical substances. The best but the most expensive method is to measure workplace concentrations of chemicals. At present no "measureless" method for risk assessment is available in Poland, but predictive models for such assessments have been developed in some countries. The purpose of this work is to review and evaluate the applicability of selected predictive methods for assessing occupational inhalation exposure and related risk to check the compliance with Occupational Exposure Limits (OELs, as well as the compliance with REACH obligations. Based on the literature data HSE COSHH Essentials, EASE, ECETOC TRA, Stoffenmanager, and EMKG-Expo-Tool were evaluated. The data on validation of predictive models were also examined. It seems that predictive models may be used as a useful method for Tier 1 assessment of occupational exposure by inhalation. Since the levels of exposure are frequently overestimated, they should be considered as "rational worst cases" for selection of proper control measures. Bearing in mind that the number of available exposure scenarios and PROC categories is limited, further validation by field surveys is highly recommended. Predictive models may serve as a good tool for preliminary risk assessment and selection of the most appropriate risk control measures in Polish small and medium size enterprises (SMEs providing that they are available in the Polish language. This also requires an extensive training of their future users. Med Pr 2013;64(5:699–716

  15. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  16. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

    OpenAIRE

    Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). Methods A ...

  17. Predicting fitness-to-drive following stroke using the Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Carolyn A; Baker, Anne; Lannin, Natasha; Harries, Priscilla; Strahan, Janene; Browne, Matthew

    2018-02-28

    It is difficult to determine if, or when, individuals with stroke are ready to undergo on-road fitness-to-drive assessment. The Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery was developed to determine client suitability to resume driving. The predictive validity of the Battery needs to be verified for people with stroke. Examine the predictive validity of the Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery for on-road performance among people with stroke. Off-road data were collected from 148 people post stroke on the Battery and the outcome of their on-road assessment was recorded as: fit-to-drive or not fit-to-drive. The majority of participants (76%) were able to resume driving. A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis using four subtests (three cognitive and one physical) from the Battery demonstrated an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.8311. Using a threshold of 0.5, the model correctly predicted 98/112 fit-to-drive (87.5%) and 26/36 people not fit-to-drive (72.2%). The three cognitive subtests from the Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery and potentially one of the physical tests have good predictive validity for client fitness-to-drive. These tests can be used to screen client suitability for proceeding to an on-road test following stroke. Implications for Rehabilitation: Following stroke, drivers should be counseled (including consideration of local legislation) concerning return to driving. The Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery can be used in the clinic to screen people for suitability to undertake on road assessment. Scores on four of the Occupational Therapy - Driver Off Road Assessment Battery subtests are predictive of resumption of driving following stroke.

  18. Facial Video based Detection of Physical Fatigue for Maximal Muscle Activity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haque, Mohammad Ahsanul; Irani, Ramin; Nasrollahi, Kamal

    2016-01-01

    the challenges originates from realistic sce-nario. A face quality assessment system was also incorporated in the proposed system to reduce erroneous results by discarding low quality faces that occurred in a video sequence due to problems in realistic lighting, head motion and pose variation. Experimental...

  19. Using Video-Based Instruction to Integrate Ethics into the Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedaghat, Ali M.; Mintz, Steven M.; Wright, George M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a video case discussion project based on the IMA's Statement of Ethical Professional Practice that was administered in a cost accounting class to assess the extent to which students were able to identify and discuss ethical issues raised by the facts of a case scenario. The case was developed by the IMA to advance the…

  20. Predicting law enforcement officer job performance with the Personality Assessment Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowmaster, Sara E; Morey, Leslie C

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the descriptive and predictive characteristics of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) in a sample of 85 law enforcement officer candidates. Descriptive results indicate that mean PAI full-scale and subscale scores are consistently lower than normative community sample scores, with some exceptions noted typically associated with defensive responding. Predictive validity was examined by relating PAI full-scale and subscale scores to supervisor ratings in the areas of job performance, integrity problems, and abuse of disability status. Modest correlations were observed for all domains; however, predictive validity was moderated by defensive response style, with greater predictive validity observed among less defensive responders. These results suggest that the PAI's full scales and subscales are able to predict law enforcement officers' performance, but their utility is appreciably improved when taken in the context of indicators of defensive responding.

  1. A community effort to assess and improve drug sensitivity prediction algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, James C; Heiser, Laura M; Georgii, Elisabeth; Gönen, Mehmet; Menden, Michael P; Wang, Nicholas J; Bansal, Mukesh; Ammad-ud-din, Muhammad; Hintsanen, Petteri; Khan, Suleiman A; Mpindi, John-Patrick; Kallioniemi, Olli; Honkela, Antti; Aittokallio, Tero; Wennerberg, Krister; Collins, James J; Gallahan, Dan; Singer, Dinah; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Kaski, Samuel; Gray, Joe W; Stolovitzky, Gustavo

    2014-12-01

    Predicting the best treatment strategy from genomic information is a core goal of precision medicine. Here we focus on predicting drug response based on a cohort of genomic, epigenomic and proteomic profiling data sets measured in human breast cancer cell lines. Through a collaborative effort between the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) project, we analyzed a total of 44 drug sensitivity prediction algorithms. The top-performing approaches modeled nonlinear relationships and incorporated biological pathway information. We found that gene expression microarrays consistently provided the best predictive power of the individual profiling data sets; however, performance was increased by including multiple, independent data sets. We discuss the innovations underlying the top-performing methodology, Bayesian multitask MKL, and we provide detailed descriptions of all methods. This study establishes benchmarks for drug sensitivity prediction and identifies approaches that can be leveraged for the development of new methods.

  2. Feasibility of a Video-Based Advance Care Planning Website to Facilitate Group Visits among Diverse Adults from a Safety-Net Health System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Carly; Lum, Hillary D; Wistar, Emily; Horton, Claire; Sudore, Rebecca L

    2018-02-20

    Primary care providers in safety-net settings often do not have time to discuss advance care planning (ACP). Group visits (GV) may be an efficient means to provide ACP education. To assess the feasibility and impact of a video-based website to facilitate GVs to engage diverse adults in ACP. Feasibility pilot among patients who were ≥55 years of age from two primary care clinics in a Northern California safety-net setting. Participants attended two 90-minute GVs and viewed the five steps of the movie version of the PREPARE website ( www.prepareforyourcare.org ) concerning surrogates, values, and discussing wishes in video format. Two clinician facilitators were available to encourage participation. We assessed pre-to-post ACP knowledge, whether participants designated a surrogate or completed an advance directive (AD), and acceptability of GVs and PREPARE materials. We conducted two GVs with 22 participants. Mean age was 64 years (±7), 55% were women, 73% nonwhite, and 55% had limited literacy. Knowledge improved about surrogate designation (46% correct pre vs. 85% post, p = 0.01) and discussing decisions with others (59% vs. 90%, p = 0.01). Surrogate designation increased (48% vs. 85%, p = 0.01) and there was a trend toward AD completion (9% vs. 24%, p = 0.21). Participants rated the GVs and PREPARE materials a mean of 8 (±3.1) on a 10-point acceptability scale. Using the PREPARE movie to facilitate ACP GVs for diverse adults in safety net, primary care settings is feasible and shows potential for increasing ACP engagement.

  3. A Process for Assessing NASA's Capability in Aircraft Noise Prediction Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Milo D.

    2008-01-01

    An acoustic assessment is being conducted by NASA that has been designed to assess the current state of the art in NASA s capability to predict aircraft related noise and to establish baselines for gauging future progress in the field. The process for determining NASA s current capabilities includes quantifying the differences between noise predictions and measurements of noise from experimental tests. The computed noise predictions are being obtained from semi-empirical, analytical, statistical, and numerical codes. In addition, errors and uncertainties are being identified and quantified both in the predictions and in the measured data to further enhance the credibility of the assessment. The content of this paper contains preliminary results, since the assessment project has not been fully completed, based on the contributions of many researchers and shows a select sample of the types of results obtained regarding the prediction of aircraft noise at both the system and component levels. The system level results are for engines and aircraft. The component level results are for fan broadband noise, for jet noise from a variety of nozzles, and for airframe noise from flaps and landing gear parts. There are also sample results for sound attenuation in lined ducts with flow and the behavior of acoustic lining in ducts.

  4. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  5. Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Ruijian Zhang; Deren Li

    2017-01-01

    Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the ass...

  6. Low-Complexity Multiple Description Coding of Video Based on 3D Block Transforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Norkin

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a multiple description (MD video coder based on three-dimensional (3D transforms. Two balanced descriptions are created from a video sequence. In the encoder, video sequence is represented in a form of coarse sequence approximation (shaper included in both descriptions and residual sequence (details which is split between two descriptions. The shaper is obtained by block-wise pruned 3D-DCT. The residual sequence is coded by 3D-DCT or hybrid, LOT+DCT, 3D-transform. The coding scheme is targeted to mobile devices. It has low computational complexity and improved robustness of transmission over unreliable networks. The coder is able to work at very low redundancies. The coding scheme is simple, yet it outperforms some MD coders based on motion-compensated prediction, especially in the low-redundancy region. The margin is up to 3 dB for reconstruction from one description.

  7. Teachers' assessments of children aged eight predict life satisfaction in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honkanen, Meri; Meri, Honkanen; Hurtig, Tuula; Tuula, Hurtig; Taanila, Anja; Anja, Taanila; Moilanen, Irma; Irma, Moilanen; Koponen, Hannu; Hannu, Koponen; Mäki, Pirjo; Pirjo, Mäki; Veijola, Juha; Juha, Veijola; Puustjärvi, Anita; Anita, Puustjärvi; Ebeling, Hanna; Hanna, Ebeling; Koivumaa-Honkanen, Heli; Heli, Koivumaa-Honkanen

    2011-09-01

    The objective was to investigate how teachers' assessments of children predict life satisfaction in adolescence. This is a prospective cohort study on the population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (n = 8,959). Information was gathered from parents, teachers and adolescents using questionnaires at the age of 7, 8 and 15. Response rates were 80-90%. Emotional and behavioural problems were assessed with Rutter Children's Behavioural Questionnaires for teachers (RB2) and parents (RA2) during the first grade at age 8. At adolescence, self-reported life satisfaction was measured with a question including five response alternatives. According to teachers' assessments, 13.9% of the children had high emotional or behavioural problems (RB2 ≥9). These assessments predicted life dissatisfaction in adolescence (OR(crude) = 1.77; 95% CI 1.43-2.20) in several models including also health behaviour and use of psychotropic medicine. However, introducing all the significant variables in the same model, RB2 lost its significance (OR = 1.28; 0.96-1.70), but good school achievement assessed by teachers was still a significant predictor. Life satisfaction in adolescence was associated with a variety of favourable concurrent factors. In conclusion teachers' assessments of children during the first school year predicted life satisfaction in adolescence. In mental health promotion, teachers' early assessments should be utilized for the benefit of children.

  8. Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

    2018-05-01

    Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

  9. Assessment of ASSERT-PV for prediction of post-dryout heat transfer in CANDU bundles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Z.; Rao, Y.F.; Waddington, G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Assessment of the new Canadian subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for PDO sheath temperature prediction. • CANDU 28-, 37- and 43-element bundle PDO experiments. • Prediction improvement of ASSERT-PV 3.2 over previous code versions. • Sensitivity study of the effect of PDO model options. - Abstract: Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) has developed the subchannel thermalhydraulics code ASSERT-PV for the Canadian nuclear industry. The recently released ASSERT-PV 3.2 provides enhanced models for improved predictions of subchannel flow distribution, critical heat flux (CHF), and post-dryout (PDO) heat transfer in horizontal CANDU fuel channels. This paper presents results of an assessment of the new code version against PDO tests performed during five full-size CANDU bundle experiments conducted between 1992 and 2009 by Stern Laboratories (SL), using 28-, 37- and 43-element bundles. A total of 10 PDO test series with varying pressure-tube creep and/or bearing-pad height were analyzed. The SL experiments encompassed the bundle geometries and range of flow conditions for the intended ASSERT-PV applications for existing CANDU reactors. Code predictions of maximum PDO fuel-sheath temperature were compared against measurements from the SL PDO tests to quantify the code's prediction accuracy. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 were compared to those from previous code versions. Furthermore, separate-effects sensitivity studies quantified the contribution of each PDO model change or enhancement to the improvement in PDO heat transfer prediction. Overall, the assessment demonstrated significant improvement in prediction of PDO sheath temperature in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles

  10. Assessment of ASSERT-PV for prediction of critical heat flux in CANDU bundles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Y.F.; Cheng, Z.; Waddington, G.M.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Assessment of the new Canadian subchannel code ASSERT-PV 3.2 for CHF prediction. • CANDU 28-, 37- and 43-element bundle CHF experiments. • Prediction improvement of ASSERT-PV 3.2 over previous code versions. • Sensitivity study of the effect of CHF model options. - Abstract: Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) has developed the subchannel thermalhydraulics code ASSERT-PV for the Canadian nuclear industry. The recently released ASSERT-PV 3.2 provides enhanced models for improved predictions of flow distribution, critical heat flux (CHF), and post-dryout (PDO) heat transfer in horizontal CANDU fuel channels. This paper presents results of an assessment of the new code version against five full-scale CANDU bundle experiments conducted in 1990s and in 2009 by Stern Laboratories (SL), using 28-, 37- and 43-element (CANFLEX) bundles. A total of 15 CHF test series with varying pressure-tube creep and/or bearing-pad height were analyzed. The SL experiments encompassed the bundle geometries and range of flow conditions for the intended ASSERT-PV applications for CANDU reactors. Code predictions of channel dryout power and axial and radial CHF locations were compared against measurements from the SL CHF tests to quantify the code prediction accuracy. The prediction statistics using the recommended model set of ASSERT-PV 3.2 were compared to those from previous code versions. Furthermore, the sensitivity studies evaluated the contribution of each CHF model change or enhancement to the improvement in CHF prediction. Overall, the assessment demonstrated significant improvement in prediction of channel dryout power and axial and radial CHF locations in horizontal fuel channels containing CANDU bundles

  11. Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also

  12. Assessment of Prediction Capabilities of COCOSYS and CFX Code for Simplified Containment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Zhu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The acceptable accuracy for simulation of severe accident scenarios in containments of nuclear power plants is required to investigate the consequences of severe accidents and effectiveness of potential counter measures. For this purpose, the actual capability of CFX tool and COCOSYS code is assessed in prototypical geometries for simplified physical process-plume (due to a heat source under adiabatic and convection boundary condition, respectively. Results of the comparison under adiabatic boundary condition show that good agreement is obtained among the analytical solution, COCOSYS prediction, and CFX prediction for zone temperature. The general trend of the temperature distribution along the vertical direction predicted by COCOSYS agrees with the CFX prediction except in dome, and this phenomenon is predicted well by CFX and failed to be reproduced by COCOSYS. Both COCOSYS and CFX indicate that there is no temperature stratification inside dome. CFX prediction shows that temperature stratification area occurs beneath the dome and away from the heat source. Temperature stratification area under adiabatic boundary condition is bigger than that under convection boundary condition. The results indicate that the average temperature inside containment predicted with COCOSYS model is overestimated under adiabatic boundary condition, while it is underestimated under convection boundary condition compared to CFX prediction.

  13. Comparative assessment of predictions in ungauged basins – Part 3: Runoff signatures in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Viglione

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This is the third of a three-part paper series through which we assess the performance of runoff predictions in ungauged basins in a comparative way. Whereas the two previous papers by Parajka et al. (2013 and Salinas et al. (2013 assess the regionalisation performance of hydrographs and hydrological extremes on the basis of a comprehensive literature review of thousands of case studies around the world, in this paper we jointly assess prediction performance of a range of runoff signatures for a consistent and rich dataset. Daily runoff time series are predicted for 213 catchments in Austria by a regionalised rainfall–runoff model and by Top-kriging, a geostatistical estimation method that accounts for the river network hierarchy. From the runoff time-series, six runoff signatures are extracted: annual runoff, seasonal runoff, flow duration curves, low flows, high flows and runoff hydrographs. The predictive performance is assessed in terms of the bias, error spread and proportion of unexplained spatial variance of statistical measures of these signatures in cross-validation (blind testing mode. Results of the comparative assessment show that, in Austria, the predictive performance increases with catchment area for both methods and for most signatures, it tends to increase with elevation for the regionalised rainfall–runoff model, while the dependence on climate characteristics is weaker. Annual and seasonal runoff can be predicted more accurately than all other signatures. The spatial variability of high flows in ungauged basins is the most difficult to estimate followed by the low flows. It also turns out that in this data-rich study in Austria, the geostatistical approach (Top-kriging generally outperforms the regionalised rainfall–runoff model.

  14. Multi-model global assessment of subseasonal prediction skill of atmospheric rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are global phenomena that are characterized by long, narrow plumes of water vapor transport. They are most often observed in the midlatitudes near climatologically active storm track regions. Because of their frequent association with floods, landslides, and other hydrological impacts on society, there is significant incentive at the intersection of academic research, water management, and policymaking to understand the skill with which state-of-the-art operational weather models can predict ARs weeks-to-months in advance. We use the newly assembled Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) database, which includes extensive hindcast records of eleven operational weather models, to assess global prediction skill of atmospheric rivers on S2S timescales. We develop a metric to assess AR skill that is suitable for S2S timescales by counting the total number of AR days which occur over each model and observational grid cell during a 2-week time window. This "2-week AR occurrence" metric is suitable for S2S prediction skill assessment because it does not consider discrete hourly or daily AR objects, but rather a smoothed representation of AR occurrence over a longer period of time. Our results indicate that several of the S2S models, especially the ECMWF model, show useful prediction skill in the 2-week forecast window, with significant interannual variation in some regions. We also present results from an experimental forecast of S2S AR prediction skill using the ECMWF and NCEP models.

  15. Application of structural reliability and risk assessment to life prediction and life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.A.; Balkey, K.R.; Bishop, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    There can be numerous uncertainties involved in performing component life assessments. In addition, sufficient data may be unavailable to make a useful life prediction. Structural Reliability and Risk Assessment (SRRA) is primarily an analytical methodology or tool that quantifies the impact of uncertainties on the structural life of plant components and can address the lack of data in component life prediction. As a prelude to discussing the technical aspects of SRRA, a brief review of general component life prediction methods is first made so as to better develop an understanding of the role of SRRA in such evaluations. SRRA is then presented as it is applied in component life evaluations with example applications being discussed for both nuclear and non-nuclear components

  16. Learners' Use of Communication Strategies in Text-Based and Video-Based Synchronous Computer-Mediated Communication Environments: Opportunities for Language Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Yu-Wan; Higgins, Steve

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the different learning opportunities enabled by text-based and video-based synchronous computer-mediated communication (SCMC) from an interactionist perspective. Six Chinese-speaking learners of English and six English-speaking learners of Chinese were paired up as tandem (reciprocal) learning dyads. Each dyad participated…

  17. Construct-driven development of a video-based situational judgment test for integrity : A study in a multi-ethnic police setting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.A.L. de Meijer (Lonneke); M.Ph. Born (Marise); J. van Zielst (Jaap); H.T. van der Molen (Henk)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn a field study conducted in a multi-ethnic selection setting at the Dutch police, we examined the construct validity of a video-based situational judgment test (SJT) aimed to measure the construct of integrity. Integrity is of central importance to productive work performance of police

  18. Pregnancy Prevention at Her Fingertips: A Text- and Mobile Video-Based Pilot Intervention to Promote Contraceptive Methods among College Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh-Buhi, Eric R.; Helmy, Hannah; Harsch, Kristin; Rella, Natalie; Godcharles, Cheryl; Ogunrunde, Adejoke; Lopez Castillo, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    Objective: This paper reports on a pilot study evaluating the feasibility and acceptability of a text- and mobile video-based intervention to educate women and men attending college about non-daily contraception, with a particular focus on long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). A secondary objective is to describe the process of intervention…

  19. Comparing Learning Outcomes of Video-Based E-Learning with Face-to-Face Lectures of Agricultural Engineering Courses in Korean Agricultural High Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Youl; Kim, Soo-Wook; Cha, Seung-Bong; Nam, Min-Woo

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the effectiveness of e-learning by comparing the learning outcomes in conventional face-to-face lectures and e-learning methods. Two video-based e-learning contents were developed based on the rapid prototyping model and loaded onto the learning management system (LMS), which was available at http://www.greenehrd.com.…

  20. The Effect of Motion Analysis Activities in a Video-Based Laboratory in Students' Understanding of Position, Velocity and Frames of Reference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleza, Eugenia; Pappas, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we present the results of a qualitative research project on the effect of motion analysis activities in a Video-Based Laboratory (VBL) on students' understanding of position, velocity and frames of reference. The participants in our research were 48 pre-service teachers enrolled in Education Departments with no previous strong…

  1. An Examination of the Effects of a Video-Based Training Package on Professional Staff's Implementation of a Brief Functional Analysis and Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Courtney V.

    2011-01-01

    Minimal research has investigated training packages used to teach professional staff how to implement functional analysis procedures and to interpret data gathered during functional analysis. The current investigation used video-based training with role-play and feedback to teach six professionals in a clinical setting to implement procedures of a…

  2. Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machingambi, Zadzisai

    2017-01-01

    The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

  3. Predictive models for fish assemblages in eastern USA streams: implications for assessing biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meador, Michael R.; Carlisle, Daren M.

    2009-01-01

    Management and conservation of aquatic systems require the ability to assess biological conditions and identify changes in biodiversity. Predictive models for fish assemblages were constructed to assess biological condition and changes in biodiversity for streams sampled in the eastern United States as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Separate predictive models were developed for northern and southern regions. Reference sites were designated using land cover and local professional judgment. Taxonomic completeness was quantified based on the ratio of the number of observed native fish species expected to occur to the number of expected native fish species. Models for both regions accurately predicted fish species composition at reference sites with relatively high precision and low bias. In general, species that occurred less frequently than expected (decreasers) tended to prefer riffle areas and larger substrates, such as gravel and cobble, whereas increaser species (occurring more frequently than expected) tended to prefer pools, backwater areas, and vegetated and sand substrates. In the north, the percentage of species identified as increasers and the percentage identified as decreasers were equal, whereas in the south nearly two-thirds of the species examined were identified as decreasers. Predictive models of fish species can provide a standardized indicator for consistent assessments of biological condition at varying spatial scales and critical information for an improved understanding of fish species that are potentially at risk of loss with changing water quality conditions.

  4. Overview, comparative assessment and recommendations of forecasting models for short-term water demand prediction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Anele, AO

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available -term water demand (STWD) forecasts. In view of this, an overview of forecasting methods for STWD prediction is presented. Based on that, a comparative assessment of the performance of alternative forecasting models from the different methods is studied. Times...

  5. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steyerberg, Ewout W; Vickers, Andrew J; Cook, Nancy R

    2010-01-01

    The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver...

  6. Assessing the performance of prediction models: A framework for traditional and novel measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); A.J. Vickers (Andrew); N.R. Cook (Nancy); T.A. Gerds (Thomas); M. Gonen (Mithat); N. Obuchowski (Nancy); M. Pencina (Michael); M.W. Kattan (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the

  7. Predicting Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Oppositional Defiant Disorder from Preschool Diagnostic Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Elizabeth A.; Youngwirth, Sara D.; Thakar, Dhara A.; Errazuriz, Paula A.

    2009-01-01

    The present study examined the power of measures of early preschool behavior to predict later diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD)/conduct disorder (CD). Participants were 168 children with behavior problems at age 3 who underwent a multimethod assessment of ADHD and ODD symptoms and…

  8. Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Xingyu; Shi Zhongqi

    2002-01-01

    The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

  9. Advancing individual tree biomass prediction: assessment and alternatives to the component ratio method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaron Weiskittel; Jereme Frank; David Walker; Phil Radtke; David Macfarlane; James Westfall

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of forest biomass and carbon is becoming important issues in the United States. However, estimating forest biomass and carbon is difficult and relies on empirically-derived regression equations. Based on recent findings from a national gap analysis and comprehensive assessment of the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (USFS-FIA) component...

  10. Capnography for assessing nocturnal hypoventilation and predicting compliance with subsequent noninvasive ventilation in patients with ALS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Min Kim

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS suffer from hypoventilation, which can easily worsen during sleep. This study evaluated the efficacy of capnography monitoring in patients with ALS for assessing nocturnal hypoventilation and predicting good compliance with subsequent noninvasive ventilation (NIV treatment. METHODS: Nocturnal monitoring and brief wake screening by capnography/pulse oximetry, functional scores, and other respiratory signs were assessed in 26 patients with ALS. Twenty-one of these patients were treated with NIV and had their treatment compliance evaluated. RESULTS: Nocturnal capnography values were reliable and strongly correlated with the patients' respiratory symptoms (R(2 = 0.211-0.305, p = 0.004-0.021. The duration of nocturnal hypercapnea obtained by capnography exhibited a significant predictive power for good compliance with subsequent NIV treatment, with an area-under-the-curve value of 0.846 (p = 0.018. In contrast, no significant predictive values for nocturnal pulse oximetry or functional scores for nocturnal hypoventilation were found. Brief waking supine capnography was also useful as a screening tool before routine nocturnal capnography monitoring. CONCLUSION: Capnography is an efficient tool for assessing nocturnal hypoventilation and predicting good compliance with subsequent NIV treatment of ALS patients, and may prove useful as an adjunctive tool for assessing the need for NIV treatment in these patients.

  11. A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vliet, J.; Hagen-Zanker, A.; Hurkens, J.; van van Delden, H.

    2013-01-01

    The predictive accuracy of land use models is frequently assessed by comparing two data sets: the simulated land use map and the observed land use map at the end of the simulation period. A common statistic for this is Kappa, which expresses the agreement between two categorical maps, corrected for

  12. A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuit, E.; Kwee, A.; Westerhuis, M. E. M. H.; van Dessel, H. J. H. M.; Graziosi, G. C. M.; van Lith, J. M. M.; Nijhuis, J. G.; Oei, S. G.; Oosterbaan, H. P.; Schuitemaker, N. W. E.; Wouters, M. G. A. J.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.; Moons, K. G. M.; Groenwold, R. H. H.

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Schuit E, Kwee A, Westerhuis M, Van Dessel H, Graziosi G, Van Lith J, Nijhuis J, Oei S, Oosterbaan H, Schuitemaker N, Wouters M, Visser G, Mol B, Moons K, Groenwold R. A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery. BJOG 2012;119:915923. Objective To

  13. Applying Machine Learning and High Performance Computing to Water Quality Assessment and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruijian Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Water quality assessment and prediction is a more and more important issue. Traditional ways either take lots of time or they can only do assessments. In this research, by applying machine learning algorithm to a long period time of water attributes’ data; we can generate a decision tree so that it can predict the future day’s water quality in an easy and efficient way. The idea is to combine the traditional ways and the computer algorithms together. Using machine learning algorithms, the assessment of water quality will be far more efficient, and by generating the decision tree, the prediction will be quite accurate. The drawback of the machine learning modeling is that the execution takes quite long time, especially when we employ a better accuracy but more time-consuming algorithm in clustering. Therefore, we applied the high performance computing (HPC System to deal with this problem. Up to now, the pilot experiments have achieved very promising preliminary results. The visualized water quality assessment and prediction obtained from this project would be published in an interactive website so that the public and the environmental managers could use the information for their decision making.

  14. Predicting Grades from an English Language Assessment: The Importance of Peeling the Onion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgeman, Brent; Cho, Yeonsuk; DiPietro, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Data from 787 international undergraduate students at an urban university in the United States were used to demonstrate the importance of separating a sample into meaningful subgroups in order to demonstrate the ability of an English language assessment to predict the first-year grade point average (GPA). For example, when all students were pooled…

  15. Goals of patient care system change with video-based education increases rates of advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation decision-making and discussions in hospitalised rehabilitation patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Claire E; Chong, Jeffrey C; Wilkinson, Anne; Hayes, Barbara; Tait, Sonia; Waldron, Nicholas

    2017-07-01

    Advance cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) discussions and decision-making are not routine clinical practice in the hospital setting. Frail older patients may be at risk of non-beneficial CPR. To assess the utility and safety of two interventions to increase CPR decision-making, documentation and communication for hospitalised older patients. A pre-post study tested two interventions: (i) standard ward-based education forums with CPR content; and (ii) a combined, two-pronged strategy with 'Goals of Patient Care' (GoPC) system change and a structured video-based workshop; against usual practice (i.e. no formal training). Participants were a random sample of patients in a hospital rehabilitation unit. The outcomes were the proportion of patients documented as: (i) not for resuscitation (NFR); and (ii) eligible for rapid response team (RRT) calls, and rates of documented discussions with the patient, family and carer. When compared with usual practice, patients were more likely to be documented as NFR following the two-pronged intervention (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 6.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0; 13.6). Documentation of discussions with patients was also more likely (aOR: 3.3, 95% CI:1.8; 6.2). Characteristics of patients documented NFR were similar between the phases, but were more likely for RRT calls following Phase 3 (P 0.03). An increase in advance CPR decisions occurred following GoPC system change with education. This appears safe as NFR patients had the same level of frailty between phases but were more likely to be eligible for RRT review. Increased documentation of discussions suggests routine use of the GoPC form may improve communication with patients about their care. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

  16. Validating health impact assessment: Prediction is difficult (especially about the future)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petticrew, Mark; Cummins, Steven; Sparks, Leigh; Findlay, Anne

    2007-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been recommended as a means of estimating how policies, programmes and projects may impact on public health and on health inequalities. This paper considers the difference between predicting health impacts and measuring those impacts. It draws upon a case study of the building of a new hypermarket in a deprived area of Glasgow, which offered an opportunity to reflect on the issue of the predictive validity of HIA, and to consider the difference between potential and actual impacts. We found that the actual impacts of the new hypermarket on diet differed from that which would have been predicted based on previous studies. Furthermore, they challenge current received wisdom about the impact of food retail outlets in poorer areas. These results are relevant to the validity of HIA as a process and emphasise the importance of further research on the predictive validity of HIA, which should help improve its value to decision-makers

  17. Tools for Reflection: Video-Based Reflection Within a Preservice Community of Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Susan; Park Rogers, Meredith

    2016-06-01

    Current reform in science education calls for teachers to understand student thinking within a lesson to effectively address students' needs (NRC in A framework for K-12 science education: practices, crosscutting concepts, and core ideas. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2012; NRC in Guide to implementing the Next Generation Science Standards. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2015). This study investigates how to scaffold preservice teachers with learning to attend to students' thinking for the purpose of guiding curricular decisions. The study focuses on one team teaching a science unit during their early field experience. We sought to understand how participants' thoughts and abilities changed through participation in a moderated community of practice using video of their own teaching as a reflective tool. We examined how these changes affected both their classroom practice and their decision-making for future lessons. Evidence shows growth in participants' ability to identify opportunities to elicit, assess, and use students' thinking to guide instructional decisions. Implications for use of the approach used in this study to begin developing novice teachers' pedagogical content knowledge for teaching science are discussed.

  18. Video-based Learning Versus Traditional Method for Preclinical Course of Complete Denture Fabrication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayaz, Amir; Mazahery, Azita; Hosseinzadeh, Mohammad; Yazdanpanah, Samane

    2015-03-01

    Advances in computer science and technology allow the instructors to use instructional multimedia programs to enhance the process of learning for dental students. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a new educational modality by using videotapes on the performance of dental students in preclinical course of complete denture fabrication. This quasi-experimental study was performed on 54 junior dental students in Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences (SBMU). Twenty-five and 29 students were evaluated in two consecutive semesters as controls and cases, respectively for the same course. The two groups were matched in terms of "knowledge about complete denture fabrication" and "basic dental skills" using a written test and a practical exam, respectively. After the intervention, performance and clinical skills of students were assessed in 8 steps. Eventually, a post-test was carried out to find changes in knowledge and skills of students in this regard. In the two groups with the same baseline level of knowledge and skills, independent T-test showed that students in the test group had a significantly superior performance in primary impression taking (p= 0.001) and primary cast fabrication (p= 0.001). In terms of anterior teeth set up, students in the control group had a significantly better performance (p= 0.001). Instructional videotapes can aid in teaching fabrication of complete denture and are as effective as the traditional teaching system.

  19. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP)-round IX

    KAUST Repository

    Moult, John; Fidelis, Krzysztof; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2011-01-01

    This article is an introduction to the special issue of the journal PROTEINS, dedicated to the ninth Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to assess the state of the art in protein structure modeling. The article describes the conduct of the experiment, the categories of prediction included, and outlines the evaluation and assessment procedures. Methods for modeling protein structure continue to advance, although at a more modest pace than in the early CASP experiments. CASP developments of note are indications of improvement in model accuracy for some classes of target, an improved ability to choose the most accurate of a set of generated models, and evidence of improvement in accuracy for short "new fold" models. In addition, a new analysis of regions of models not derivable from the most obvious template structure has revealed better performance than expected.

  20. Assessment of predictivity of volatile organic compounds carcinogenicity and mutagenicity by freeware in silico models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerra, Lília Ribeiro; de Souza, Alessandra Mendonça Teles; Côrtes, Juliana Alves; Lione, Viviane de Oliveira Freitas; Castro, Helena Carla; Alves, Gutemberg Gomes

    2017-12-01

    The application of in silico methods is increasing on toxicological risk prediction for human and environmental health. This work aimed to evaluate the performance of three in silico freeware models (OSIRIS v.2.0, LAZAR, and Toxtree) on the prediction of carcinogenicity and mutagenicity of thirty-eight volatile organic compounds (VOC) related to chemical risk assessment for occupational exposure. Theoretical data were compared with assessments available in international databases. Confusion matrices and ROC curves were used to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of each model. All three models (OSIRIS, LAZAR and Toxtree) were able to identify VOC with a potential carcinogenicity or mutagenicity risk for humans, however presenting differences concerning the specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy. The best predictive performances were found for OSIRIS and LAZAR for carcinogenicity and OSIRIS for mutagenicity, as these softwares presented a combination of negative predictive power and lower risk of false positives (high specificity) for those endpoints. The heterogeneity of results found with different softwares reinforce the importance of using a combination of in silico models to occupational toxicological risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Membré, Jeanne-Marie; Lambert, Ronald J W

    2008-11-30

    In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment. A tailor-made, private expert system, developed to support safe product/process design assessment is introduced as an example of how predictive models can be deployed for use by non-experts. Its use in conjunction with other tools and software available in the public domain is discussed. Specific applications of predictive microbiology techniques are presented relating to investigations of either growth or limits to growth with respect to product formulation or process conditions. An example of a probabilistic exposure assessment model for chilled food application is provided and its potential added value as a food safety management tool in an industrial context is weighed against its disadvantages. The role of predictive microbiology in the suite of tools available to food industry and some of its advantages and constraints are discussed.

  2. The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

    2016-10-02

    The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

  3. Approach and Evaluation of a Mobile Video-Based and Location-Based Augmented Reality Platform for Information Brokerage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastageeri, H.; Storz, M.; Koukofikis, A.; Knauth, S.; Coors, V.

    2016-09-01

    Providing mobile location-based information for pedestrians faces many challenges. On one hand the accuracy of localisation indoors and outdoors is restricted due to technical limitations of GPS and Beacons. Then again only a small display is available to display information as well as to develop a user interface. Plus, the software solution has to consider the hardware characteristics of mobile devices during the implementation process for aiming a performance with minimum latency. This paper describes our approach by including a combination of image tracking and GPS or Beacons to ensure orientation and precision of localisation. To communicate the information on Points of Interest (POIs), we decided to choose Augmented Reality (AR). For this concept of operations, we used besides the display also the acceleration and positions sensors as a user interface. This paper especially goes into detail on the optimization of the image tracking algorithms, the development of the video-based AR player for the Android platform and the evaluation of videos as an AR element in consideration of providing a good user experience. For setting up content for the POIs or even generate a tour we used and extended the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard Augmented Reality Markup Language (ARML).

  4. An Energy-Efficient and High-Quality Video Transmission Architecture in Wireless Video-Based Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasaman Samei

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Technological progress in the fields of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS and wireless communications and also the availability of CMOS cameras, microphones and small-scale array sensors, which may ubiquitously capture multimedia content from the field, have fostered the development of low-cost limited resources Wireless Video-based Sensor Networks (WVSN. With regards to the constraints of videobased sensor nodes and wireless sensor networks, a supporting video stream is not easy to implement with the present sensor network protocols. In this paper, a thorough architecture is presented for video transmission over WVSN called Energy-efficient and high-Quality Video transmission Architecture (EQV-Architecture. This architecture influences three layers of communication protocol stack and considers wireless video sensor nodes constraints like limited process and energy resources while video quality is preserved in the receiver side. Application, transport, and network layers are the layers in which the compression protocol, transport protocol, and routing protocol are proposed respectively, also a dropping scheme is presented in network layer. Simulation results over various environments with dissimilar conditions revealed the effectiveness of the architecture in improving the lifetime of the network as well as preserving the video quality.

  5. An Energy-Efficient and High-Quality Video Transmission Architecture in Wireless Video-Based Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghdasi, Hadi S; Abbaspour, Maghsoud; Moghadam, Mohsen Ebrahimi; Samei, Yasaman

    2008-08-04

    Technological progress in the fields of Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and wireless communications and also the availability of CMOS cameras, microphones and small-scale array sensors, which may ubiquitously capture multimedia content from the field, have fostered the development of low-cost limited resources Wireless Video-based Sensor Networks (WVSN). With regards to the constraints of videobased sensor nodes and wireless sensor networks, a supporting video stream is not easy to implement with the present sensor network protocols. In this paper, a thorough architecture is presented for video transmission over WVSN called Energy-efficient and high-Quality Video transmission Architecture (EQV-Architecture). This architecture influences three layers of communication protocol stack and considers wireless video sensor nodes constraints like limited process and energy resources while video quality is preserved in the receiver side. Application, transport, and network layers are the layers in which the compression protocol, transport protocol, and routing protocol are proposed respectively, also a dropping scheme is presented in network layer. Simulation results over various environments with dissimilar conditions revealed the effectiveness of the architecture in improving the lifetime of the network as well as preserving the video quality.

  6. The use of video-based patient education for shared decision-making in the treatment of prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomella, L G; Albertsen, P C; Benson, M C; Forman, J D; Soloway, M S

    2000-08-01

    Increased consumerism, patient empowerment, and autonomy are creating a health care revolution. In recent years, the public has become better informed and more sophisticated. An extraordinary amount of treatment advice from books, the media, and the Internet is available to patients today, although much of it is confusing or conflicting. Consequently, the traditional, paternalistic doctor-patient relationship is yielding to a more consumerist one. The new dynamic is based on a participatory ethic and a change in the balance of power. This shared decision-making creates a true partnership between professionals and patients, in which each contributes equally to decisions about treatment or care. Evidence suggests that in diseases such as prostate cancer, where there may be a number of appropriate treatment options for a particular patient, shared decision-making may lead to improved clinical and quality-of-life outcomes. This article explores the evolving relationship between the physician and patient, the pros and cons of shared decision-making, and the use of video technology in the clinical setting. The authors review the use of medical decision aids, including a video-based educational program called CHOICES, in the treatment of prostate cancer and other diseases.

  7. Lane Detection in Video-Based Intelligent Transportation Monitoring via Fast Extracting and Clustering of Vehicle Motion Trajectories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianqiang Ren

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Lane detection is a crucial process in video-based transportation monitoring system. This paper proposes a novel method to detect the lane center via rapid extraction and high accuracy clustering of vehicle motion trajectories. First, we use the activity map to realize automatically the extraction of road region, the calibration of dynamic camera, and the setting of three virtual detecting lines. Secondly, the three virtual detecting lines and a local background model with traffic flow feedback are used to extract and group vehicle feature points in unit of vehicle. Then, the feature point groups are described accurately by edge weighted dynamic graph and modified by a motion-similarity Kalman filter during the sparse feature point tracking. After obtaining the vehicle trajectories, a rough k-means incremental clustering with Hausdorff distance is designed to realize the rapid online extraction of lane center with high accuracy. The use of rough set reduces effectively the accuracy decrease, which results from the trajectories that run irregularly. Experimental results prove that the proposed method can detect lane center position efficiently, the affected time of subsequent tasks can be reduced obviously, and the safety of traffic surveillance systems can be enhanced significantly.

  8. APPROACH AND EVALUATION OF A MOBILE VIDEO-BASED AND LOCATION-BASED AUGMENTED REALITY PLATFORM FOR INFORMATION BROKERAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Dastageeri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Providing mobile location-based information for pedestrians faces many challenges. On one hand the accuracy of localisation indoors and outdoors is restricted due to technical limitations of GPS and Beacons. Then again only a small display is available to display information as well as to develop a user interface. Plus, the software solution has to consider the hardware characteristics of mobile devices during the implementation process for aiming a performance with minimum latency. This paper describes our approach by including a combination of image tracking and GPS or Beacons to ensure orientation and precision of localisation. To communicate the information on Points of Interest (POIs, we decided to choose Augmented Reality (AR. For this concept of operations, we used besides the display also the acceleration and positions sensors as a user interface. This paper especially goes into detail on the optimization of the image tracking algorithms, the development of the video-based AR player for the Android platform and the evaluation of videos as an AR element in consideration of providing a good user experience. For setting up content for the POIs or even generate a tour we used and extended the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC standard Augmented Reality Markup Language (ARML.

  9. A simple video-based timing system for on-ice team testing in ice hockey: a technical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, David P; Noonan, Benjamin C

    2014-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe and evaluate a newly developed on-ice timing system for team evaluation in the sport of ice hockey. We hypothesized that this new, simple, inexpensive, timing system would prove to be highly accurate and reliable. Six adult subjects (age 30.4 ± 6.2 years) performed on ice tests of acceleration and conditioning. The performance times of the subjects were recorded using a handheld stopwatch, photocell, and high-speed (240 frames per second) video. These results were then compared to allow for accuracy calculations of the stopwatch and video as compared with filtered photocell timing that was used as the "gold standard." Accuracy was evaluated using maximal differences, typical error/coefficient of variation (CV), and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) between the timing methods. The reliability of the video method was evaluated using the same variables in a test-retest analysis both within and between evaluators. The video timing method proved to be both highly accurate (ICC: 0.96-0.99 and CV: 0.1-0.6% as compared with the photocell method) and reliable (ICC and CV within and between evaluators: 0.99 and 0.08%, respectively). This video-based timing method provides a very rapid means of collecting a high volume of very accurate and reliable on-ice measures of skating speed and conditioning, and can easily be adapted to other testing surfaces and parameters.

  10. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  11. Developing a Video-Based eHealth Intervention for HIV-Positive Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men: Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirshfield, Sabina; Downing, Martin J; Parsons, Jeffrey T; Grov, Christian; Gordon, Rachel J; Houang, Steven T; Scheinmann, Roberta; Sullivan, Patrick S; Yoon, Irene S; Anderson, Ian; Chiasson, Mary Ann

    2016-06-17

    Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) accounted for 67% of new US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in 2012; however, less than 40% of HIV-positive GBMSM are virally suppressed. Preventing transmission from virally unsuppressed men who have condomless anal sex (CAS) with serodiscordant partners is a public health imperative. New HIV infections in GBMSM are attributed in part to online access to sex partners; therefore, low-cost eHealth interventions are a unique opportunity to reach men where they meet partners. To describe the protocol of a randomized controlled trial evaluating whether video-based messaging delivered online may lead to reductions in serodiscordant CAS and increased HIV disclosure. Sex Positive!([+]) is a two-arm, phase III, video-based randomized controlled trial delivered online to GBMSM living with HIV. Participants in the intervention arm receive 10 video vignettes grounded in social learning and social cognitive theories that are designed to elicit critical thinking around issues of HIV transmission and disclosure. Participants in the attention control arm receive 10 video vignettes that focus on healthy living. All videos are optimized for mobile viewing. The study protocol includes five online assessments conducted over a 1-year period among 1500 US white, black, or Hispanic/Latino GBMSM living with HIV who report suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence or a detectable viral load in the past 12 months and recent CAS (past 6 months) with HIV-negative or unknown status male partners. Compared to the control arm, we hypothesize that men who watch the intervention videos will report at 12-month follow-up significantly fewer serodiscordant CAS partners, increased HIV disclosure, and improved social cognition (eg, condom use self-efficacy, perceived responsibility). Participant recruitment began in June 2015 and ended in December 2015. This protocol describes the underlying theoretical framework and

  12. Psychosocial assessments for young people: a systematic review examining acceptability, disclosure and engagement, and predictive utility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradford S

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Sally Bradford,1 Debra Rickwood1,21Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, 2Headspace National Youth Mental Health Foundation, North Melbourne, AustraliaAbstract: Adolescence and young adulthood are often turbulent periods in a person’s life. There are high rates of accidental deaths, suicide, mental health concerns, substance use, and sexual experimentation. Health care professionals need to conduct holistic assessments of clients in these developmental life stages to identify psychosocial risks and provide targeted early intervention and implement prevention strategies. The most useful psychosocial assessments for most health care professionals are those that can provide a complete picture of the young person’s life and circumstances. This article identifies psychosocial assessment instruments that can be used as an initial assessment and engagement tool with the general population of young people presenting for health care. We review the psychometric properties of each of the instruments, determining what type of instrument is most acceptable to young people, whether any can increase disclosure and improve engagement between young people and health professionals, and whether they have predictive utility. The search strategy complied with the relevant sections of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA statement. A total of 89 published articles were identified, covering 31 different assessment instruments. Results indicated that those that were self-administered were most acceptable to young people, although it is unclear whether pen-and-paper or computer formats were preferred. Most psychosocial assessments can improve rates of disclosure and enhance engagement between young people and health professionals; however, worryingly, we found evidence that clinicians did not always respond to some of the most serious identified risks. Only for one instrument was there any mention of

  13. Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

    2018-04-01

    Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

  14. Risk assessment models to predict caries recurrence after oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yai-Tin; Kalhan, Ashish Chetan; Lin, Yng-Tzer Joseph; Kalhan, Tosha Ashish; Chou, Chein-Chin; Gao, Xiao Li; Hsu, Chin-Ying Stephen

    2018-05-08

    Oral rehabilitation under general anaesthesia (GA), commonly employed to treat high caries-risk children, has been associated with high economic and individual/family burden, besides high post-GA caries recurrence rates. As there is no caries prediction model available for paediatric GA patients, this study was performed to build caries risk assessment/prediction models using pre-GA data and to explore mid-term prognostic factors for early identification of high-risk children prone to caries relapse post-GA oral rehabilitation. Ninety-two children were identified and recruited with parental consent before oral rehabilitation under GA. Biopsychosocial data collection at baseline and the 6-month follow-up were conducted using questionnaire (Q), microbiological assessment (M) and clinical examination (C). The prediction models constructed using data collected from Q, Q + M and Q + M + C demonstrated an accuracy of 72%, 78% and 82%, respectively. Furthermore, of the 83 (90.2%) patients recalled 6 months after GA intervention, recurrent caries was identified in 54.2%, together with reduced bacterial counts, lower plaque index and increased percentage of children toothbrushing for themselves (all P < 0.05). Additionally, meal-time and toothbrushing duration were shown, through bivariate analyses, to be significant prognostic determinants for caries recurrence (both P < 0.05). Risk assessment/prediction models built using pre-GA data may be promising in identifying high-risk children prone to post-GA caries recurrence, although future internal and external validation of predictive models is warranted. © 2018 FDI World Dental Federation.

  15. Assessing and Predicting Erosion from Off Highway Vehicle Trails in Front-Range Rocky Mountain Watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, M. J.; Silins, U.; Anderson, A.

    2016-12-01

    Off highway vehicle (OHV) trails have the potential to deliver sediment to sensitive headwater streams and increased OHV use is a growing watershed management concern in many Rocky Mountain regions. Predictive tools for estimating erosion and sediment inputs are needed to support assessment and management of erosion from OHV trail networks. The objective of this study was to a) assess erodibility (K factor) and total erosion from OHV trail networks in Rocky Mountain watersheds in south-west Alberta, Canada, and to b) evaluate the applicability of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) for predicting OHV trail erosion to support erosion management strategies. Measured erosion rates and erodibility (K) from rainfall simulation plots on OHV trails during the summers of 2014 and 2015 were compared to USLE predicted erosion from these same trails. Measured erodibility (K) from 23 rainfall simulation plots was highly variable (0.001-0.273 Mg*ha*hr/ha*MJ*mm) as was total seasonal erosion from 52 large trail sections (0.0595-43.3 Mg/ha) across trail segments of variable slope, stoniness, and trail use intensity. In particular, intensity of trail use had a large effect on both erodibility and total erosion that is not presently captured by erodibility indices (K) derived from soil characteristics. Results of this study suggest that while application of USLE for predicting erosion from OHV trail networks may be useful for initial coarse erosion assessment, a better understanding of the effect of factors such as road/trail use intensity on erodibility is needed to support use of USLE or associated erosion prediction tools for road/trail erosion management.

  16. Predicting short term mood developments among depressed patients using adherence and ecological momentary assessment data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Mikus

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Technology driven interventions provide us with an increasing amount of fine-grained data about the patient. This data includes regular ecological momentary assessments (EMA but also response times to EMA questions by a user. When observing this data, we see a huge variation between the patterns exhibited by different patients. Some are more stable while others vary a lot over time. This poses a challenging problem for the domain of artificial intelligence and makes on wondering whether it is possible to predict the future mental state of a patient using the data that is available. In the end, these predictions could potentially contribute to interventions that tailor the feedback to the user on a daily basis, for example by warning a user that a fall-back might be expected during the next days, or by applying a strategy to prevent the fall-back from occurring in the first place.In this work, we focus on short term mood prediction by considering the adherence and usage data as an additional predictor. We apply recurrent neural networks to handle the temporal aspects best and try to explore whether individual, group level, or one single predictive model provides the highest predictive performance (measured using the root mean squared error (RMSE. We use data collected from patients from five countries who used the ICT4Depression/MoodBuster platform in the context of the EU E-COMPARED project. In total, we used the data from 143 patients (with between 9 and 425days of EMA data who were diagnosed with a major depressive disorder according to DSM-IV.Results show that we can make predictions of short term mood change quite accurate (ranging between 0.065 and 0.11. The past EMA mood ratings proved to be the most influential while adherence and usage data did not improve prediction accuracy. In general, group level predictions proved to be the most promising, however differences were not significant.Short term mood prediction remains a difficult task

  17. Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connor, Jean E

    2014-01-01

    Age estimation in living subjects is primarily achieved through assessment of a hand-wrist radiograph and comparison with a standard reference atlas. Recently, maturation of other regions of the skeleton has also been assessed in an attempt to refine the age estimates. The current study presents a method to predict bone age directly from the knee in a modern Irish sample. Ten maturity indicators (A-J) at the knee were examined from radiographs of 221 subjects (137 males; 84 females). Each indicator was assigned a maturity score. Scores for indicators A-G, H-J and A-J, respectively, were totalled to provide a cumulative maturity score for change in morphology of the epiphyses (AG), epiphyseal union (HJ) and the combination of both (AJ). Linear regression equations to predict age from the maturity scores (AG, HJ, AJ) were constructed for males and females. For males, equation-AJ demonstrated the greatest predictive capability (R(2)=0.775) while for females equation-HJ had the strongest capacity for prediction (R(2)=0.815). When equation-AJ for males and equation-HJ for females were applied to the current sample, the predicted age of 90% of subjects was within ±1.5 years of actual age for male subjects and within +2.0 to -1.9 years of actual age for female subjects. The regression formulae and associated charts represent the most contemporary method of age prediction currently available for an Irish population, and provide a further technique which can contribute to a multifactorial approach to age estimation in non-adults.

  18. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  19. Positive predictive value of abnormal mammographic findings and role of assessment procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menna, S.; Marra, V.; Di Virgilio, M.R.; Macchia, G.; Frigerio, A.

    1999-01-01

    To investigate the positive predictive value for cancer of abnormal mammographic findings and the role of assessment, the authors reviewed a series of 962 patients recalled and examined in the first breast screening center of Turin (Italy), out of 18996 women aged 50-59 from 1991 to 1995, within a population-based mammography program. The results of this study confirm the accuracy of mammography in the early detection of breast cancer and the different role of assessment procedures in the various abnormal mammographic findings. The improvement in positive predictive value for screening demonstrates the importance of the learning curve within the screening team. Most of this improvement could be referred to refined diagnostic criteria for calcifications [it

  20. Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi; Boyer, Patrick; Brittain, John E.; Haakanson, Lars; Lepicard, Samuel; Smith, Jim T.

    2005-01-01

    The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed

  1. Assessment of predictive dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka Jankowska

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of dermal exposure to chemicals in the work environment is problematic, mainly as a result of the lack of measurement data on occupational exposure to chemicals. Due to common prevalence of occupational skin exposure and its health consequences it is necessary to look for efficient solutions allowing for reliable exposure assessment. The aim of the study is to present predictive models used to assess non-measured dermal exposure, as well as to acquaint Polish users with the principles of the selected model functioning. This paper presents examples of models to assist the employer in the the assessment of occupational exposure associated with the skin contact with chemicals, developed in European Union (EU countries, as well as in countries outside the EU. Based on the literature data dermal exposure models EASE (Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure, COSHH Essentials (Control of Substances Hazardous to Health Regulations, DREAM (Dermal Exposure Assessment Method, Stoffenmanager , ECETOC TRA (European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment, MEASE (Metal’s EASE, PHED (Pesticide Handlers Exposure Database, DERM (Dermal Exposure Ranking Method and RISKOFDERM (Risk Assessment of Occupational Dermal Exposure to Chemicals were briefly described. Moreover the characteristics of RISKOFDERM, guidelines for its use, information on input and output data were further detailed. Problem of full work shift dermal exposure assessment is described. An example of exposure assessment using RISKOFDERM and effectiveness evaluation to date were also presented. When no measurements are available, RISKOFDERM allows dermal exposure assessment and thus can improve the risk assessment quality and effectiveness of dermal risk management. Med Pr 2017;68(4:557–569

  2. [The value of 5-HTT gene polymorphism for the assessment and prediction of male adolescence violence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yue; Liu, Xiang; Yang, Zhen-xing; Qiu, Chang-jian; Ma, Xiao-hong

    2012-08-01

    To establish an adolescent violence crime prediction model, and to assess the value of serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene polymorphism for the assessment and prediction of violent crime. Investigative tools were used to analyze the difference in personality dimensions, social support, coping styles, aggressiveness, impulsivity, and family condition scale between 223 adolescents with violence behavior and 148 adolescents without violence behavior. The distribution of 5-HTT gene polymorphisms (5-HTTLPR and 5-HTTVNTR) was compared between the two groups. The role of 5-HTT gene polymorphism on adolescent personality, impulsion and aggression scale also was also analyzed. Stepwise logistic regression was used to establish a predictive model for adolescent violent crime. Significant difference was found between the violence group and the control group on multiple dimensions of psychology and environment scales. However, no statistical difference was found with regard to the 5-HTT genotypes and alleles between adolescents with violent behaviors and normal controls. The rate of prediction accuracy was not significantly improved when 5-HTT gene polymorphism was taken into the model. The violent crime of adolescents was closely related with social and environmental factors. No association was found between 5-HTT polymorphisms and adolescent violence criminal behavior.

  3. Risk assessment of pre-hospital trauma airway management by anaesthesiologists using the predictive Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nakstad Anders R

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Endotracheal intubation (ETI has been considered an essential part of pre-hospital advanced life support. Pre-hospital ETI, however, is a complex intervention also for airway specialist like anaesthesiologists working as pre-hospital emergency physicians. We therefore wanted to investigate the quality of pre-hospital airway management by anaesthesiologists in severely traumatised patients and identify possible areas for improvement. Method We performed a risk assessment according to the predictive Bayesian approach, in a typical anaesthesiologist-manned Norwegian helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS. The main focus of the risk assessment was the event where a patient arrives in the emergency department without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication for it. Results In the risk assessment, we assigned a high probability (29% for the event assessed, that a patient arrives without ETI despite a pre-hospital indication. However, several uncertainty factors in the risk assessment were identified related to data quality, indications for use of ETI, patient outcome and need for special training of ETI providers. Conclusion Our risk assessment indicated a high probability for trauma patients with an indication for pre-hospital ETI not receiving it in the studied HEMS. The uncertainty factors identified in the assessment should be further investigated to better understand the problem assessed and consequences for the patients. Better quality of pre-hospital airway management data could contribute to a reduction of these uncertainties.

  4. Assessment and prediction of air quality using fuzzy logic and autoregressive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbajal-Hernández, José Juan; Sánchez-Fernández, Luis P.; Carrasco-Ochoa, Jesús A.; Martínez-Trinidad, José Fco.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been used for the treatment of environmental problems. This work, presents two models for assessment and prediction of air quality. First, we develop a new computational model for air quality assessment in order to evaluate toxic compounds that can harm sensitive people in urban areas, affecting their normal activities. In this model we propose to use a Sigma operator to statistically asses air quality parameters using their historical data information and determining their negative impact in air quality based on toxicity limits, frequency average and deviations of toxicological tests. We also introduce a fuzzy inference system to perform parameter classification using a reasoning process and integrating them in an air quality index describing the pollution levels in five stages: excellent, good, regular, bad and danger, respectively. The second model proposed in this work predicts air quality concentrations using an autoregressive model, providing a predicted air quality index based on the fuzzy inference system previously developed. Using data from Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System, we perform a comparison among air quality indices developed for environmental agencies and similar models. Our results show that our models are an appropriate tool for assessing site pollution and for providing guidance to improve contingency actions in urban areas.

  5. The Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR): predictive validity in inpatient stroke rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breisinger, Terry P; Skidmore, Elizabeth R; Niyonkuru, Christian; Terhorst, Lauren; Campbell, Grace B

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate relative accuracy of a newly developed Stroke Assessment of Fall Risk (SAFR) for classifying fallers and non-fallers, compared with a health system fall risk screening tool, the Fall Harm Risk Screen. Prospective quality improvement study conducted at an inpatient stroke rehabilitation unit at a large urban university hospital. Patients admitted for inpatient stroke rehabilitation (N = 419) with imaging or clinical evidence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, between 1 August 2009 and 31 July 2010. Not applicable. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve for Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves of both scales' classifications, based on fall risk score completed upon admission to inpatient stroke rehabilitation. A total of 68 (16%) participants fell at least once. The SAFR was significantly more accurate than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (p Fall Harm Risk Screen, area under the curve was 0.56, positive predictive value was 0.19, and negative predictive value was 0.86. Sensitivity and specificity of the SAFR (0.78 and 0.63, respectively) was higher than the Fall Harm Risk Screen (0.57 and 0.48, respectively). An evidence-derived, population-specific fall risk assessment may more accurately predict fallers than a general fall risk screen for stroke rehabilitation patients. While the SAFR improves upon the accuracy of a general assessment tool, additional refinement may be warranted. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP) - round x

    KAUST Repository

    Moult, John; Fidelis, Krzysztof; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Schwede, Torsten; Tramontano, Anna

    2013-01-01

    This article is an introduction to the special issue of the journal PROTEINS, dedicated to the tenth Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to assess the state of the art in protein structure modeling. The article describes the conduct of the experiment, the categories of prediction included, and outlines the evaluation and assessment procedures. The 10 CASP experiments span almost 20 years of progress in the field of protein structure modeling, and there have been enormous advances in methods and model accuracy in that period. Notable in this round is the first sustained improvement of models with refinement methods, using molecular dynamics. For the first time, we tested the ability of modeling methods to make use of sparse experimental three-dimensional contact information, such as may be obtained from new experimental techniques, with encouraging results. On the other hand, new contact prediction methods, though holding considerable promise, have yet to make an impact in CASP testing. The nature of CASP targets has been changing in recent CASPs, reflecting shifts in experimental structural biology, with more irregular structures, more multi-domain and multi-subunit structures, and less standard versions of known folds. When allowance is made for these factors, we continue to see steady progress in the overall accuracy of models, particularly resulting from improvement of non-template regions.

  7. Critical assessment of methods of protein structure prediction (CASP) - round x

    KAUST Repository

    Moult, John

    2013-12-17

    This article is an introduction to the special issue of the journal PROTEINS, dedicated to the tenth Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiment to assess the state of the art in protein structure modeling. The article describes the conduct of the experiment, the categories of prediction included, and outlines the evaluation and assessment procedures. The 10 CASP experiments span almost 20 years of progress in the field of protein structure modeling, and there have been enormous advances in methods and model accuracy in that period. Notable in this round is the first sustained improvement of models with refinement methods, using molecular dynamics. For the first time, we tested the ability of modeling methods to make use of sparse experimental three-dimensional contact information, such as may be obtained from new experimental techniques, with encouraging results. On the other hand, new contact prediction methods, though holding considerable promise, have yet to make an impact in CASP testing. The nature of CASP targets has been changing in recent CASPs, reflecting shifts in experimental structural biology, with more irregular structures, more multi-domain and multi-subunit structures, and less standard versions of known folds. When allowance is made for these factors, we continue to see steady progress in the overall accuracy of models, particularly resulting from improvement of non-template regions.

  8. Predictive validity of the comprehensive basic science examination mean score for assessment of medical students' performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firouz Behboudi

    2002-04-01

    Full Text Available Background Medical education curriculum improvements can be achieved bye valuating students performance. Medical students have to pass two undergraduate comprehensive examinations, basic science and preinternship, in Iran. Purpose To measure validity of the students' mean score in comprehensive basic science exam (CBSE for predicting their performance in later curriculum phases. Methods This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on 95 (38 women and 55 men Guilan medical university students. Their admission to the university was 81% by regional quota and 12% by shaheed and other organizations' share. They first enrolled in 1994 and were able to pass CBS£ at first try. Data on gender, regional quota, and average grades of CBS£, PC, and CPIE were collected by a questionnaire. The calculations were done by SPSS package. Results The correlation coefficient between CBS£ and CPIE mean scores (0.65 was higher than correlation coefficient between CBS£ and PC mean scores (0.49. The predictive validity of CBS£ average grade was significant for students' performance in CPIE; however, the predictive validity of CBSE mean scores for students I pe1jormance in PC was lower. Conclusion he students' mean score in CBSE can be a good denominator for their further admission. We recommend further research to assess the predictive validity for each one of the basic courses. Keywords predictive validity, comprehensive basic exam

  9. Assessment of PANC3 score in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avreen Singh Shah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Acute pancreatitis is inflammatory process of the pancreas associated with local and systemic complications. At present, there are lots of scores (such as Ransons, APACHE II, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis that help us in predicting severity at the time of admission but these are time consuming or require complex calculation and are costly. Material and Methods: PANC3 Scoring System is one of the better systems because the three criteria used (hematocrit, body mass index, and pleural effusion are simple, easy to assess, readily available, and economic. In this prospective study, 100 cases were evaluated to see the prospects of PANC3 scoring in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis as decided by modified Marshals score. Results: The results showed that PANC3 score had a 96.43% specificity, 75% sensitivity, 80% positive predictive value, and 95.29% negative predictive value. Conclusion: Hence, the PANC3 score is a cost-effective, promising score that helps in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis leading to prompt treatment and early referral to higher center.

  10. Using the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial and Borderline Features Scales to Predict Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Morey, Leslie C; Edens, John F

    2016-11-01

    A substantial amount of research has examined the developmental trajectory of antisocial behavior and, in particular, the relationship between antisocial behavior and maladaptive personality traits. However, research typically has not controlled for previous behavior (e.g., past violence) when examining the utility of personality measures, such as self-report scales of antisocial and borderline traits, in predicting future behavior (e.g., subsequent violence). Examination of the potential interactive effects of measures of both antisocial and borderline traits also is relatively rare in longitudinal research predicting adverse outcomes. The current study utilizes a large sample of youthful offenders ( N = 1,354) from the Pathways to Desistance project to examine the separate effects of the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial Features (ANT) and Borderline Features (BOR) scales in predicting future offending behavior as well as trends in other negative outcomes (e.g., substance abuse, violence, employment difficulties) over a 1-year follow-up period. In addition, an ANT × BOR interaction term was created to explore the predictive effects of secondary psychopathy. ANT and BOR both explained unique variance in the prediction of various negative outcomes even after controlling for past indicators of those same behaviors during the preceding year.

  11. Assessing the model transferability for prediction of transcription factor binding sites based on chromatin accessibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sheng; Zibetti, Cristina; Wan, Jun; Wang, Guohua; Blackshaw, Seth; Qian, Jiang

    2017-07-27

    Computational prediction of transcription factor (TF) binding sites in different cell types is challenging. Recent technology development allows us to determine the genome-wide chromatin accessibility in various cellular and developmental contexts. The chromatin accessibility profiles provide useful information in prediction of TF binding events in various physiological conditions. Furthermore, ChIP-Seq analysis was used to determine genome-wide binding sites for a range of different TFs in multiple cell types. Integration of these two types of genomic information can improve the prediction of TF binding events. We assessed to what extent a model built upon on other TFs and/or other cell types could be used to predict the binding sites of TFs of interest. A random forest model was built using a set of cell type-independent features such as specific sequences recognized by the TFs and evolutionary conservation, as well as cell type-specific features derived from chromatin accessibility data. Our analysis suggested that the models learned from other TFs and/or cell lines performed almost as well as the model learned from the target TF in the cell type of interest. Interestingly, models based on multiple TFs performed better than single-TF models. Finally, we proposed a universal model, BPAC, which was generated using ChIP-Seq data from multiple TFs in various cell types. Integrating chromatin accessibility information with sequence information improves prediction of TF binding.The prediction of TF binding is transferable across TFs and/or cell lines suggesting there are a set of universal "rules". A computational tool was developed to predict TF binding sites based on the universal "rules".

  12. Repeated assessments of symptom severity improve predictions for risk of death among patients with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutradhar, Rinku; Atzema, Clare; Seow, Hsien; Earle, Craig; Porter, Joan; Barbera, Lisa

    2014-12-01

    Although prior studies show the importance of self-reported symptom scores as predictors of cancer survival, most are based on scores recorded at a single point in time. To show that information on repeated assessments of symptom severity improves predictions for risk of death and to use updated symptom information for determining whether worsening of symptom scores is associated with a higher hazard of death. This was a province-based longitudinal study of adult outpatients who had a cancer diagnosis and had assessments of symptom severity. We implemented a time-to-death Cox model with a time-varying covariate for each symptom to account for changing symptom scores over time. This model was compared with that using only a time-fixed (baseline) covariate for each symptom. The regression coefficients of each model were derived based on a randomly selected 60% of patients, and then, the predictive performance of each model was assessed via concordance probabilities when applied to the remaining 40% of patients. This study had 66,112 patients diagnosed with cancer and more than 310,000 assessments of symptoms. The use of repeated assessments of symptom scores improved predictions for risk of death compared with using only baseline symptom scores. Increased pain and fatigue and reduced appetite were the strongest predictors for death. If available, researchers should consider including changing information on symptom scores, as opposed to only baseline information on symptom scores, when examining hazard of death among patients with cancer. Worsening of pain, fatigue, and appetite may be a flag for impending death. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Understanding the Transfer Deficit: Contextual Mismatch, Proactive Interference, and Working Memory Affect Toddlers' Video-Based Transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Koeun; Kirkorian, Heather L; Pempek, Tiffany A

    2017-04-17

    Researchers tested the impact of contextual mismatch, proactive interference, and working memory (WM) on toddlers' transfer across contexts. Forty-two toddlers (27-34 months) completed four object-retrieval trials, requiring memory updating on Trials 2-4. Participants watched hiding events on a tablet computer. Search performance was tested using another tablet (match) or a felt board (mismatch). WM was assessed. On earlier search trials, WM predicted transfer in both conditions, and toddlers in the match condition outperformed those in the mismatch condition; however, the benefit of contextual match and WM decreased over trials. Contextual match apparently increased proactive interference on later trials. Findings are interpreted within existing accounts of the transfer deficit, and a combined account is proposed. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  14. An assessment of prediction methods of CHF in tubes with a large experimental data bank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leung, L.K.H.; Groeneveld, D.C.

    1993-01-01

    An assessment of prediction methods of CHF in tubes has been carried out using an expanded CHF data bank at Chalk River Laboratories (CRL). It includes eight different CHF look-up tables (two AECL versions and six USSR (or Russian) versions) and three empirical correlations. These prediction methods were developed from relatively large data bases and therefore have a wide range of application. Some limitations, however, were imposed in this study, to avoid any invalid predictions due to extrapolation of these methods. Therefore, these comparisons are limited to the specific data base that is tailored to suit the range of an individual method. This has resulted in a different number of data used in each case. The comparison of predictions against the experimental data is based on the constant inlet-condition approach (i.e., the pressure, mass flux, inlet fluid temperature and tube geometry are the primary parameters). Overall, the AECL tables have the widest range of application. They are assessed with 21 771 data points and the root-mean-square error is only 8.3%. About 60% of these data were used in the development of the AECL tables. The best version of the USSR/Russian CHF table is valid for 13 300 data points with a root-mean-square error of 8.8%. The USSR/Russian table that has the widest range of application covers a total of 18 800 data points, but the error increases to 9.3%. The range of application for empirical correlations, however, are generally much narrower than those covered by the CHF tables. The number of data used to assess these correlations is therefore further limited. Among the tested correlations, the Becker and Persson correlation covers the least amount of data (only 7 499 data points), but has the best accuracy (with a root-mean-square error of 9.71%). 33 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  15. Evaluation of a video-based Internet intervention as preparation for inpatient psychosomatic rehabilitation: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

    OpenAIRE

    Becker, Jan; Beutel, Manfred E.; Gerzymisch, Katharina; Schulz, Dirk; Siepmann, Martin; Knickenberg, Rudolf J.; Schm?deke, Stefan; Ferdinand, Peter; Zwerenz, R?diger

    2016-01-01

    Background Patients? treatment expectations are a key factor in psychotherapy. Several studies have linked higher expectations to better treatment success. Therefore, we want to evaluate the impact of a targeted video-based intervention on patients? expectations and the treatment success of inpatient rehabilitation. Methods/design All patients who will be referred to inpatient psychosomatic rehabilitation in three clinics will receive a study flyer with information about how to log in to the ...

  16. Zebrafish as a correlative and predictive model for assessing biomaterial nanotoxicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fako, Valerie E; Furgeson, Darin Y

    2009-06-21

    The lack of correlative and predictive models to assess acute and chronic toxicities limits the rapid pre-clinical development of new therapeutics. This barrier is due in part to the exponential growth of nanotechnology and nanotherapeutics, coupled with the lack of rigorous and robust screening assays and putative standards. It is a fairly simple and cost-effective process to initially screen the toxicity of a nanomaterial by using invitro cell cultures; unfortunately it is nearly impossible to imitate a complimentary invivo system. Small mammalian models are the most common method used to assess possible toxicities and biodistribution of nanomaterials in humans. Alternatively, Daniorerio, commonly known as zebrafish, are proving to be a quick, cheap, and facile model to conservatively assess toxicity of nanomaterials.

  17. Utility of Eating Assessment Tool-10 in Predicting Aspiration in Patients with Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuniga, Steven A; Ebersole, Barbara; Jamal, Nausheen

    2018-03-01

    Objective Examine the incidence of penetration/aspiration in patients with unilateral vocal fold immobility and investigate the relationship with self-reported perception of dysphagia. Study Design Case series with chart review. Setting Academic cancer center. Subjects and Methods Adult patients with unilateral vocal fold immobility diagnosed between 2014 and 2016 were reviewed. Patients were stratified into an aspiration group and a nonaspiration group using objective findings on flexible endoscopic evaluation of swallowing, as scored using Rosenbek's Penetration Aspiration Scale. Objective findings were compared to patient perception of dysphagia. Bivariate linear correlation analysis was performed to evaluate correlation between Eating Assessment Tool-10 scores and presence of aspiration. Tests of diagnostic accuracy were calculated to investigate the predictive value of Eating Assessment Tool-10 scores >9 on aspiration risk. Results Of the 35 patients with new-onset unilateral vocal fold immobility were evaluated, 25.7% (9/35) demonstrated tracheal aspiration. Mean ± SD Eating Assessment Tool-10 scores were 19.2 ± 13.7 for aspirators and 7.0 ± 7.8 for nonaspirators ( P = .016). A statistically significant correlation was demonstrated between increasing Eating Assessment Tool-10 scores and Penetration Aspiration Scale scores ( r = 0.511, P = .002). Diagnostic accuracy analysis for aspiration risk in patients with an Eating Assessment Tool-10 score >9 revealed a sensitivity of 77.8% and a specificity of 73.1%. Conclusion Patient perception of swallowing difficulty may have utility in predicting aspiration risk. An EAT-10 of >9 in patients with unilateral vocal fold immobility may portend up to a 5 times greater risk of aspiration. Routine swallow testing to assess for penetration/aspiration may be indicated in patients with unilateral vocal fold immobility.

  18. The effects of video-based and activity-based instruction on high school students' knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions related to seat belt use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Tudor Griffith, III

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of video-based science instruction and accompanying activity-based instruction on the knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions of high school students' use of seat belts. Secondarily, the purpose was to determine order effects and interactions between the two treatments used in the study: video-based instruction and hands-on activity-based instruction. The study used Ajzen and Fishbein's theory of reasoned action to investigate the factors influencing high school students' behavioral intentions regarding seat belt use. This study used a pretest-posttest-posttest treatment design. Data were collected on 194 students in high school introductory biology and chemistry classes in Gainesville, Florida. Ten intact high school science classes (eight treatment and two control) took pretests and posttests measuring physics knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions toward seat belt use prior to and after participating in the two treatments. The treatment group students participated in at least 500 minutes of instructional time divided among five lessons over 10 instructional days. All participants were pretested on physics knowledge, attitudes, and behavioral intentions toward seat belt use prior to two treatments. Treatment A was defined as participating in one 50-minute video-based instructional lesson. Treatment B was defined as participating in four hands-on science activities regarding crash-related physics concepts. Cronbach's coefficient alpha was used for analysis of the researcher-designed instruments, and ANOVA was used to analyze the data. The results of the analyses (p young adults.

  19. Assessing the ability of operational snow models to predict snowmelt runoff extremes (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A. W.; Restrepo, P. J.; Clark, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    In the western US, the snow accumulation and melt cycle of winter and spring plays a critical role in the region's water management strategies. Consequently, the ability to predict snowmelt runoff at time scales from days to seasons is a key input for decisions in reservoir management, whether for avoiding flood hazards or supporting environmental flows through the scheduling of releases in spring, or for allocating releases for multi-state water distribution in dry seasons of year (using reservoir systems to provide an invaluable buffer for many sectors against drought). Runoff forecasts thus have important benefits at both wet and dry extremes of the climatological spectrum. The importance of the prediction of the snow cycle motivates an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the US's central operational snow model, SNOW17, in contrast to process-modeling alternatives, as they relate to simulating observed snowmelt variability and extremes. To this end, we use a flexible modeling approach that enables an investigation of different choices in model structure, including model physics, parameterization and degree of spatiotemporal discretization. We draw from examples of recent extreme events in western US watersheds and an overall assessment of retrospective model performance to identify fruitful avenues for advancing the modeling basis for the operational prediction of snow-related runoff extremes.

  20. Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jay P; Desmarais, Sarah L; Van Dorn, Richard A

    2013-01-01

    The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. An integrative typology of personality assessment for aggression: implications for predicting counterproductive workplace behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Mark N; Stewart, Susan M; Davison, H Kristl; Green, Philip D; McIntyre, Michael D; James, Lawrence R

    2007-05-01

    This study presents an integrative typology of personality assessment for aggression. In this typology, self-report and conditional reasoning (L. R. James, 1998) methodologies are used to assess 2 separate, yet often congruent, components of aggressive personalities. Specifically, self-report is used to assess explicit components of aggressive tendencies, such as self-perceived aggression, whereas conditional reasoning is used to assess implicit components, in particular, the unconscious biases in reasoning that are used to justify aggressive acts. These 2 separate components are then integrated to form a new theoretical typology of personality assessment for aggression. Empirical tests of the typology were subsequently conducted using data gathered across 3 samples in laboratory and field settings and reveal that explicit and implicit components of aggression can interact in the prediction of counterproductive, deviant, and prosocial behaviors. These empirical tests also reveal that when either the self-report or conditional reasoning methodology is used in isolation, the resulting assessment of aggression may be incomplete. Implications for personnel selection, team composition, and executive coaching are discussed. 2007 APA, all rights reserved

  2. The predictive value of aptitude assessment in laparoscopic surgery: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramp, Kelvin H; van Det, Marc J; Hoff, Christiaan; Veeger, Nic J G M; ten Cate Hoedemaker, Henk O; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E N

    2016-04-01

    Current methods of assessing candidates for medical specialties that involve laparoscopic skills suffer from a lack of instruments to assess the ability to work in a minimally invasive surgery environment. A meta-analysis was conducted to investigate whether aptitude assessment can be used to predict variability in the acquisition and performance of laparoscopic skills. PubMed, PsycINFO and Google Scholar were searched to November 2014 for published and unpublished studies reporting the measurement of a form of aptitude for laparoscopic skills. The quality of studies was assessed with QUADAS-2. Summary correlations were calculated using a random-effects model. Thirty-four studies were found to be eligible for inclusion; six of these studies used an operating room performance measurement. Laparoscopic skills correlated significantly with visual-spatial ability (r = 0.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.39; p < 0.001), perceptual ability (r = 0.31, 95% CI 0.22-0.39; p < 0.001), psychomotor ability (r = 0.26, 95% CI 0.10-0.40; p = 0.003) and simulator-based assessment of aptitude (r = 0.64, 95% CI 0.52-0.73; p < 0.001). Three-dimensional dynamic visual-spatial ability showed a significantly higher correlation than intrinsic static visual-spatial ability (p = 0.024). In general, aptitude assessments are associated with laparoscopic skill level. Simulator-based assessment of aptitude appears to have the potential to represent a job sample and to enable the assessment of all forms of aptitude for laparoscopic surgery at once. A laparoscopy aptitude test can be a valuable additional tool in the assessment of candidates for medical specialties that require laparoscopic skills. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Predicting suicidal ideation in primary care: An approach to identify easily assessable key variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Pascal; Shedden-Mora, Meike C; Löwe, Bernd

    To obtain predictors of suicidal ideation, which can also be used for an indirect assessment of suicidal ideation (SI). To create a classifier for SI based on variables of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) and sociodemographic variables, and to obtain an upper bound on the best possible performance of a predictor based on those variables. From a consecutive sample of 9025 primary care patients, 6805 eligible patients (60% female; mean age = 51.5 years) participated. Advanced methods of machine learning were used to derive the prediction equation. Various classifiers were applied and the area under the curve (AUC) was computed as a performance measure. Classifiers based on methods of machine learning outperformed ordinary regression methods and achieved AUCs around 0.87. The key variables in the prediction equation comprised four items - namely feelings of depression/hopelessness, low self-esteem, worrying, and severe sleep disturbances. The generalized anxiety disorder scale (GAD-7) and the somatic symptom subscale (PHQ-15) did not enhance prediction substantially. In predicting suicidal ideation researchers should refrain from using ordinary regression tools. The relevant information is primarily captured by the depression subscale and should be incorporated in a nonlinear model. For clinical practice, a classification tree using only four items of the whole PHQ may be advocated. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ljunge, Martin

    2016-09-01

    Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Crowdsourced assessment of common genetic contribution to predicting anti-TNF treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieberts, Solveig K; Zhu, Fan; García-García, Javier; Stahl, Eli; Pratap, Abhishek; Pandey, Gaurav; Pappas, Dimitrios; Aguilar, Daniel; Anton, Bernat; Bonet, Jaume; Eksi, Ridvan; Fornés, Oriol; Guney, Emre; Li, Hongdong; Marín, Manuel Alejandro; Panwar, Bharat; Planas-Iglesias, Joan; Poglayen, Daniel; Cui, Jing; Falcao, Andre O; Suver, Christine; Hoff, Bruce; Balagurusamy, Venkat S K; Dillenberger, Donna; Neto, Elias Chaibub; Norman, Thea; Aittokallio, Tero; Ammad-Ud-Din, Muhammad; Azencott, Chloe-Agathe; Bellón, Víctor; Boeva, Valentina; Bunte, Kerstin; Chheda, Himanshu; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka; Dumontier, Michel; Goldenberg, Anna; Gopalacharyulu, Peddinti; Hajiloo, Mohsen; Hidru, Daniel; Jaiswal, Alok; Kaski, Samuel; Khalfaoui, Beyrem; Khan, Suleiman Ali; Kramer, Eric R; Marttinen, Pekka; Mezlini, Aziz M; Molparia, Bhuvan; Pirinen, Matti; Saarela, Janna; Samwald, Matthias; Stoven, Véronique; Tang, Hao; Tang, Jing; Torkamani, Ali; Vert, Jean-Phillipe; Wang, Bo; Wang, Tao; Wennerberg, Krister; Wineinger, Nathan E; Xiao, Guanghua; Xie, Yang; Yeung, Rae; Zhan, Xiaowei; Zhao, Cheng; Greenberg, Jeff; Kremer, Joel; Michaud, Kaleb; Barton, Anne; Coenen, Marieke; Mariette, Xavier; Miceli, Corinne; Shadick, Nancy; Weinblatt, Michael; de Vries, Niek; Tak, Paul P; Gerlag, Danielle; Huizinga, Tom W J; Kurreeman, Fina; Allaart, Cornelia F; Louis Bridges, S; Criswell, Lindsey; Moreland, Larry; Klareskog, Lars; Saevarsdottir, Saedis; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K; Friend, Stephen; Plenge, Robert; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Oliva, Baldo; Guan, Yuanfang; Mangravite, Lara M; Bridges, S Louis; Criswell, Lindsey; Moreland, Larry; Klareskog, Lars; Saevarsdottir, Saedis; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K; Friend, Stephen; Plenge, Robert; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Oliva, Baldo; Guan, Yuanfang; Mangravite, Lara M

    2016-08-23

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects millions world-wide. While anti-TNF treatment is widely used to reduce disease progression, treatment fails in ∼one-third of patients. No biomarker currently exists that identifies non-responders before treatment. A rigorous community-based assessment of the utility of SNP data for predicting anti-TNF treatment efficacy in RA patients was performed in the context of a DREAM Challenge (http://www.synapse.org/RA_Challenge). An open challenge framework enabled the comparative evaluation of predictions developed by 73 research groups using the most comprehensive available data and covering a wide range of state-of-the-art modelling methodologies. Despite a significant genetic heritability estimate of treatment non-response trait (h(2)=0.18, P value=0.02), no significant genetic contribution to prediction accuracy is observed. Results formally confirm the expectations of the rheumatology community that SNP information does not significantly improve predictive performance relative to standard clinical traits, thereby justifying a refocusing of future efforts on collection of other data.

  6. Predictive validity of measurements of clinical competence using the team objective structured bedside assessment (TOSBA): assessing the clinical competence of final year medical students.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Meagher, Frances M

    2009-11-01

    The importance of valid and reliable assessment of student competence and performance is gaining increased recognition. Provision of valid patient-based formative assessment is an increasing challenge for clinical teachers in a busy hospital setting. A formative assessment tool that reliably predicts performance in the summative setting would be of value to both students and teachers.

  7. Huntington's disease predictive testing: the case for an assessment approach to requests from adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binedell, J; Soldan, J R; Scourfield, J; Harper, P S

    1996-01-01

    Adolescents who are actively requesting Huntington's predictive testing of their own accord pose a dilemma to those providing testing. In the absence of empirical evidence as regards the impact of genetic testing on minors, current policy and guidelines, based on the ethical principles of non-maleficence and respect for individual autonomy and confidentiality, generally exclude the testing of minors. It is argued that adherence to an age based exclusion criterion in Huntington's disease predictive testing protocols is out of step with trends in UK case law concerning minors' consent to medical treatment. Furthermore, contributions from developmental psychology and research into adolescents' decision making competence suggest that adolescents can make informed choices about their health and personal lives. Criteria for developing an assessment approach to such requests are put forward and the implications of a case by case evaluation of competence to consent in terms of clinicians' tolerance for uncertainty are discussed. PMID:8950670

  8. Performance assessment of turbulence models for the prediction of moderator thermal flow inside CANDU calandria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Gong Hee; Bang, Young Seok; Woo, Sweng Woong

    2012-01-01

    The moderator thermal flow in the CANDU calandria is generally complex and highly turbulent because of the interaction of the buoyancy force with the inlet jet inertia. In this study, the prediction performance of turbulence models for the accurate analysis of the moderator thermal flow are assessed by comparing the results calculated with various types of turbulence models in the commercial flow solver FLUENT with experimental data for the test vessel at Sheridan Park Engineering Laboratory (SPEL). Through this comparative study of turbulence models, it is concluded that turbulence models that include the source term to consider the effects of buoyancy on the turbulent flow should be used for the reliable prediction of the moderator thermal flow inside the CANDU calandria

  9. Differential effects of two types of formative assessment in predicting performance of first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasne, Sally; Wimmers, Paul F; Relan, Anju; Drake, Thomas A

    2006-05-01

    Formative assessments are systematically designed instructional interventions to assess and provide feedback on students' strengths and weaknesses in the course of teaching and learning. Despite their known benefits to student attitudes and learning, medical school curricula have been slow to integrate such assessments into the curriculum. This study investigates how performance on two different modes of formative assessment relate to each other and to performance on summative assessments in an integrated, medical-school environment. Two types of formative assessment were administered to 146 first-year medical students each week over 8 weeks: a timed, closed-book component to assess factual recall and image recognition, and an un-timed, open-book component to assess higher order reasoning including the ability to identify and access appropriate resources and to integrate and apply knowledge. Analogous summative assessments were administered in the ninth week. Models relating formative and summative assessment performance were tested using Structural Equation Modeling. Two latent variables underlying achievement on formative and summative assessments could be identified; a "formative-assessment factor" and a "summative-assessment factor," with the former predicting the latter. A latent variable underlying achievement on open-book formative assessments was highly predictive of achievement on both open- and closed-book summative assessments, whereas a latent variable underlying closed-book assessments only predicted performance on the closed-book summative assessment. Formative assessments can be used as effective predictive tools of summative performance in medical school. Open-book, un-timed assessments of higher order processes appeared to be better predictors of overall summative performance than closed-book, timed assessments of factual recall and image recognition.

  10. Fall Risk Assessment Predicts Fall-Related Injury, Hip Fracture, and Head Injury in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Martin; Eriksson, Joel; Larsson, Berit; Odén, Anders; Johansson, Helena; Lorentzon, Mattias

    2016-11-01

    To investigate the role of a fall risk assessment, using the Downton Fall Risk Index (DFRI), in predicting fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and death, in a large cohort of older women and men residing in Sweden. Cross sectional observational study. Sweden. Older adults (mean age 82.4 ± 7.8) who had a fall risk assessment using the DFRI at baseline (N = 128,596). Information on all fall-related injuries, all fall-related head injuries and hip fractures, and all-cause mortality was collected from the Swedish Patient Register and Cause of Death Register. The predictive role of DFRI was calculated using Poisson regression models with age, sex, height, weight, and comorbidities as covariates, taking time to outcome or end of study into account. During a median follow-up of 253 days (interquartile range 90-402 days) (>80,000 patient-years), 15,299 participants had a fall-related injury, 2,864 a head injury, and 2,557 a hip fracture, and 23,307 died. High fall risk (DFRI ≥3) independently predicted fall-related injury (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-1.49), hip fracture (HR = 1.51, 95% CI =1.38-1.66), head injury (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.22), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.35-1.43). DFRI more strongly predicted head injury (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.21-1.36 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11) and hip fracture (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.30-1.53 vs HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.05-1.11) in 70-year old men than in 90-year old women (P Fall risk assessment using DFRI independently predicts fall-related injury, fall-related head injury and hip fracture, and all-cause mortality in older men and women, indicating its clinical usefulness to identify individuals who would benefit from interventions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  11. Systematic assessment of apraxia and functional predictions from the Birmingham Cognitive Screen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickerton, Wai-Ling; Riddoch, M Jane; Samson, Dana; Balani, Alex Bahrami; Mistry, Bejal; Humphreys, Glyn W

    2012-05-01

    The validity and functional predictive values of the apraxia tests in the Birmingham Cognitive Screen (BCoS) were evaluated. BCoS was developed to identify patients with different forms of praxic deficit using procedures designed to be inclusive for patients with aphasia and/or spatial neglect. Observational studies were conducted from a university neuropsychological assessment centre and from acute and rehabilitation stroke care hospitals throughout an English region. Volunteers from referred patients with chronic acquired brain injuries, a consecutive hospital sample of patients within 3 months of stroke (n=635) and a population based healthy control sample (n=100) were recruited. The main outcome measures used were the Barthel Index, the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale as well as recovery from apraxia. There were high inter-rater reliabilities and correlations between the BCoS apraxia tasks and counterpart tests from the literature. The vast majority (88.3%) of the stroke survivors were able to complete the screen. Pantomime and gesture recognition tasks were more sensitive in differentiating between individuals with left hemisphere damage and right hemisphere damage whereas the Multistep Object Use test and the imitation task had higher functional correlates over and above effects of hemiplegia. Together, the initial scores of the four tasks enabled predictions with 75% accuracy, the recovery of apraxia and independence level at 9 months. As a model based assessment, BCoS offers a quick and valid way to detect apraxia and predict functional recovery. It enables early and informative assessment of most stroke patients for rehabilitation planning.

  12. Medical communication and technology: a video-based process study of the use of decision aids in primary care consultations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Ruth

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Much of the research on decision-making in health care has focused on consultation outcomes. Less is known about the process by which clinicians and patients come to a treatment decision. This study aimed to quantitatively describe the behaviour shown by doctors and patients during primary care consultations when three types of decision aids were used to promote treatment decision-making in a randomised controlled trial. Methods A video-based study set in an efficacy trial which compared the use of paper-based guidelines (control with two forms of computer-based decision aids (implicit and explicit versions of DARTS II. Treatment decision concerned warfarin anti-coagulation to reduce the risk of stroke in older patients with atrial fibrillation. Twenty nine consultations were video-recorded. A ten-minute 'slice' of the consultation was sampled for detailed content analysis using existing interaction analysis protocols for verbal behaviour and ethological techniques for non-verbal behaviour. Results Median consultation times (quartiles differed significantly depending on the technology used. Paper-based guidelines took 21 (19–26 minutes to work through compared to 31 (16–41 minutes for the implicit tool; and 44 (39–55 minutes for the explicit tool. In the ten minutes immediately preceding the decision point, GPs dominated the conversation, accounting for 64% (58–66% of all utterances and this trend was similar across all three arms of the trial. Information-giving was the most frequent activity for both GPs and patients, although GPs did this at twice the rate compared to patients and at higher rates in consultations involving computerised decision aids. GPs' language was highly technically focused and just 7% of their conversation was socio-emotional in content; this was half the socio-emotional content shown by patients (15%. However, frequent head nodding and a close mirroring in the direction of eye-gaze suggested

  13. Pediatric Eating Assessment Tool-10 as an indicator to predict aspiration in children with esophageal atresia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soyer, Tutku; Yalcin, Sule; Arslan, Selen Serel; Demir, Numan; Tanyel, Feridun Cahit

    2017-10-01

    Airway aspiration is a common problem in children with esophageal atresia (EA). Pediatric Eating Assessment Tool-10 (pEAT-10) is a self-administered questionnaire to evaluate dysphagia symptoms in children. A prospective study was performed to evaluate the validity of pEAT-10 to predict aspiration in children with EA. Patients with EA were evaluated for age, sex, type of atresia, presence of associated anomalies, type of esophageal repair, time of definitive treatment, and the beginning of oral feeding. Penetration-aspiration score (PAS) was evaluated with videofluoroscopy (VFS) and parents were surveyed for pEAT-10, dysphagia score (DS) and functional oral intake scale (FOIS). PAS scores greater than 7 were considered as risk of aspiration. EAT-10 values greater than 3 were assessed as abnormal. Higher DS scores shows dysphagia whereas higher FOIS shows better feeding abilities. Forty patients were included. Children with PAS greater than 7 were assessed as PAS+ group, and scores less than 7 were constituted as PAS- group. Demographic features and results of surgical treatments showed no difference between groups (p>0.05). The median values of PAS, pEAT-10 and DS scores were significantly higher in PAS+ group when compared to PAS- group (p<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of pEAT-10 to predict aspiration were 88% and 77%, and the positive and negative predictive values were 22% and 11%, respectively. Type-C cases had better pEAT-10 and FOIS scores with respect to type-A cases, and both scores were statistically more reliable in primary repair than delayed repair (p<0.05). Among the postoperative complications, only leakage had impact on DS, pEAT-10, PAS and FOIS scores (p<0.05). The pEAT-10 is a valid, simple and reliable tool to predict aspiration in children. Patients with higher pEAT-10 scores should undergo detailed evaluation of deglutitive functions and assessment of risks of aspiration to improve safer feeding strategies. Level II (Development of

  14. Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations: Ground Motion Prediction Equations and Site Response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    The objective of this publication is to provide the state-of-the-art practice and detailed technical elements related to ground motion evaluation by ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and site response in the context of seismic hazard assessments as recommended in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. The publication includes the basics of GMPEs, ground motion simulation, selection and adjustment of GMPEs, site characterization, and modelling of site response in order to improve seismic hazard assessment. The text aims at delineating the most important aspects of these topics (including current practices, criticalities and open problems) within a coherent framework. In particular, attention has been devoted to filling conceptual gaps. It is written as a reference text for trained users who are responsible for planning preparatory seismic hazard analyses for siting of all nuclear installations and/or providing constraints for anti-seismic design and retrofitting of existing structures

  15. A Model for Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on Driver Personality Traits Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Čubranić-Dobrodolac

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The model proposed in this paper uses four psychological instruments for assessing driver behaviour and personality traits aiming to find a relationship between the considered constructs and the occurrence of traffic accidents. A Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11 was used for the assessment of impulsivity, Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ for assessing the aggressiveness while driving, Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ and the Questionnaire for self-assessment of driving ability. Besides these instruments, the participants filled out an extensive demographic survey. Within the statistical analysis, in addition to the descriptive indicators, correlation coefficients were calculated and four hierarchical regression analyses were performed to determine the predictive power of personality traits on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Further, to confirm the results and to obtain additional information about the relationship between the considered variables, the structural equation modelling and binary logistic regression have been implemented. A sample of this research covered 305 drivers, of which there were 100 bus drivers and 102 truck drivers, as well as 103 drivers of privately owned vehicles. The results indicate that BIS-11 and ADBQ questionnaires show the best predictive power which means that impulsivity and aggressiveness as personality traits have the greatest influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. This research could be useful in many fields, such as the design of selection procedures for professional drivers, development of programs for the prevention of traffic accidents and violations of law, rehabilitation of drivers who have been deprived of the driving license, etc.

  16. The GP tests of competence assessment: which part best predicts fitness to practise decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayaweera, Hirosha Keshani; Potts, Henry W W; Keshwani, Karim; Valerio, Chris; Baker, Magdalen; Mehdizadeh, Leila; Sturrock, Alison

    2018-01-02

    The General Medical Council (GMC) conducts Tests of Competence (ToC) for doctors referred for Fitness to Practise (FtP) issues. GPs take a single best answer knowledge test, an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE), and a Simulated Surgery (SimSurg) assessment which is a simulated GP consultation. The aim of this study was to examine the similarities between OSCEs and SimSurg to determine whether each assessment contributed something unique to GP ToCs. A mixed methods approach was used. Data were collated on 153 GPs who were required to undertake a ToC as a part of being investigated for FtP issues between February 2010 and October 2016. Using correlation analysis, we examined to what degree performance on the knowledge test, OSCE, and SimSurg related to case examiner recommendations and FtP outcomes, including the unique predictive power of these three assessments. The outcome measures were case examiner recommendations (i) not fit to practise; ii) fit to practise on a limited basis; or iii) fit to practise) as well as FtP outcomes (i) erased/removed from the register; ii) having restrictions/conditions; or iii) be in good standing). For the qualitative component, 45 GP assessors were asked to rate whether they assess the same competencies and which assessment provides better feedback about candidates. There was significant overlap between OSCEs and SimSurg, p < 0.001. SimSurg had additional predictive power in the presence of OSCEs and the knowledge test (p = 0.030) in distinguishing doctors from different FtP categories, while OSCEs did not (p = 0.080). Both the OSCEs (p = 0.004) and SimSurg (p < 0.001) had significant negative correlations with case examiner recommendations when accounting for the effects of the other two assessments. Inductive thematic analysis of the responses to the questionnaire showed that assessors perceived OSCEs to be better suited to target specific knowledge and skills. SimSurg was thought to produce a

  17. Quantifying Treatment Benefit in Molecular Subgroups to Assess a Predictive Biomarker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iasonos, Alexia; Chapman, Paul B; Satagopan, Jaya M

    2016-05-01

    An increased interest has been expressed in finding predictive biomarkers that can guide treatment options for both mutation carriers and noncarriers. The statistical assessment of variation in treatment benefit (TB) according to the biomarker carrier status plays an important role in evaluating predictive biomarkers. For time-to-event endpoints, the hazard ratio (HR) for interaction between treatment and a biomarker from a proportional hazards regression model is commonly used as a measure of variation in TB. Although this can be easily obtained using available statistical software packages, the interpretation of HR is not straightforward. In this article, we propose different summary measures of variation in TB on the scale of survival probabilities for evaluating a predictive biomarker. The proposed summary measures can be easily interpreted as quantifying differential in TB in terms of relative risk or excess absolute risk due to treatment in carriers versus noncarriers. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the proposed measures with data from completed clinical trials. We encourage clinical practitioners to interpret variation in TB in terms of measures based on survival probabilities, particularly in terms of excess absolute risk, as opposed to HR. Clin Cancer Res; 22(9); 2114-20. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  18. Sediment predictions in Wadi Al-Naft using soil water assessment tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alwan Imzahim Abdulkareem

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Sediment production is the amount of sediment in the unit area that is transported through the basin by water transfer over a specified period of time. The main aim of present study is to predict sediment yield of Wadi, Al-Naft watershed with 8820 Km2area, that is located in the North-East of Diyala Governorate in Iraq, using Soil-Water Assessment Tool, (SWAT and to predict the impact of land management and the input data including the land use, soil type, and soil texture maps which are obtained from Landsat-8 satellite image. Digital Elevation Model,(DEM with resolution (14 14 meter is used to delineate the watershed with the aid of model. Three Land-sat images were used to cover the study area which were mosaic processed and the study area masked- up from the mosaic, image. The area of study has been registries by Arc-GIS 10.2 and digitized the soil hydrologic group through assistant of Soil Plant Assistant Water Model, (SPAW which was progressed by USDA, Agricultural, Research Service, using the data of soil textural and organic matter from Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, the available water content, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and bulk density. The results of average, sediment depth and the maximum upland sediment for simulation period (2010-2020 were predicted to be (1.7 mm, and (12.57 Mg/ha, respectively.

  19. A polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system for efficient parameter inference and robust uncertainty assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Huang, G. H.; Baetz, B. W.; Huang, W.

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents a polynomial chaos ensemble hydrologic prediction system (PCEHPS) for an efficient and robust uncertainty assessment of model parameters and predictions, in which possibilistic reasoning is infused into probabilistic parameter inference with simultaneous consideration of randomness and fuzziness. The PCEHPS is developed through a two-stage factorial polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) framework, which consists of an ensemble of PCEs to approximate the behavior of the hydrologic model, significantly speeding up the exhaustive sampling of the parameter space. Multiple hypothesis testing is then conducted to construct an ensemble of reduced-dimensionality PCEs with only the most influential terms, which is meaningful for achieving uncertainty reduction and further acceleration of parameter inference. The PCEHPS is applied to the Xiangxi River watershed in China to demonstrate its validity and applicability. A detailed comparison between the HYMOD hydrologic model, the ensemble of PCEs, and the ensemble of reduced PCEs is performed in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Results reveal temporal and spatial variations in parameter sensitivities due to the dynamic behavior of hydrologic systems, and the effects (magnitude and direction) of parametric interactions depending on different hydrological metrics. The case study demonstrates that the PCEHPS is capable not only of capturing both expert knowledge and probabilistic information in the calibration process, but also of implementing an acceleration of more than 10 times faster than the hydrologic model without compromising the predictive accuracy.

  20. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

    2012-03-14

    Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified

  1. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marschollek Michael

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1, and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2. Methods A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493. A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. Results The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Conclusions Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack

  2. Comparing observed and predicted mortality among ICUs using different prognostic systems: why do performance assessments differ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

    2015-02-01

    To compare ICU performance using standardized mortality ratios generated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and a National Quality Forum-endorsed methodology and examine potential reasons for model-based standardized mortality ratio differences. Retrospective analysis of day 1 hospital mortality predictions at the ICU level using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models on the same patient cohort. Forty-seven ICUs at 36 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to May 2013. Eighty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-three consecutive unselected ICU admissions. None. We assessed standardized mortality ratios for each ICU using data for patients eligible for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum predictions in order to compare unit-level model performance, differences in ICU rankings, and how case-mix adjustment might explain standardized mortality ratio differences. Hospital mortality was 11.5%. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 0.89 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 1.07 using National Quality Forum, the latter having a widely dispersed and multimodal standardized mortality ratio distribution. Model exclusion criteria eliminated mortality predictions for 10.6% of patients for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 27.9% for National Quality Forum. The two models agreed on the significance and direction of standardized mortality ratio only 45% of the time. Four ICUs had standardized mortality ratios significantly less than 1.0 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa, but significantly greater than 1.0 using National Quality Forum. Two ICUs had standardized mortality ratios exceeding 1.75 using National Quality Forum, but nonsignificant performance using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa. Stratification by patient and institutional characteristics indicated that units caring for more

  3. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link,...... chronic diseases and mortality. A short, valid MMSE subscale, which was a powerful predictor of mortality especially among men, is attractive for research and clinical practice......., as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...... long intervals. The association persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, Body Mass Index, mobility, and comorbidity and was unaffected by self-reported specific chronic diseases in both men and women. In addition, disease related risk of mortality was substantially reduced...

  4. Analytical Model of Underground Train Induced Vibrations on Nearby Building Structures in Cameroon: Assessment and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezin Seba MINSILI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper was to assess and predict the effect of vibrations induced by an underground railway on nearby-existing buildings prior to the construction of projected new railway lines of the National Railway Master Plan of Cameroon and after upgrading of the railway conceded to CAMRAIL linking the two most densely populated cities of Cameroon: Douala and Yaoundé. With the source-transmitter-receiver mathematical model as the train-soil-structure interaction model, taking into account sub-model parameters such as type of the train-railway system, typical geotechnical conditions of the ground and the sensitivity of the nearby buildings, the analysis is carried out over the entire system using the dynamic finite element method in the time domain. This subdivision of the model is a powerful tool that allows to consider different alternatives of sub-models with different characteristics, and thus to determine any critical excessive vibration impact. Based on semi-empirical analytical results obtained from presented models, the present work assesses and predicts characteristics of traffic-induced vibrations as a function of time duration, intensity and vehicle speed, as well as their influence on buildings at different levels.

  5. Applying a multi-replication framework to support dynamic situation assessment and predictive capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, Craig; McGraw, Robert M.; Steinman, Jeffrey S.

    2005-05-01

    Technological advances and emerging threats reduce the time between target detection and action to an order of a few minutes. To effectively assist with the decision-making process, C4I decision support tools must quickly and dynamically predict and assess alternative Courses Of Action (COAs) to assist Commanders in anticipating potential outcomes. These capabilities can be provided through the faster-than-real-time predictive simulation of plans that are continuously re-calibrating with the real-time picture. This capability allows decision-makers to assess the effects of re-tasking opportunities, providing the decision-maker with tremendous freedom to make time-critical, mid-course decisions. This paper presents an overview and demonstrates the use of a software infrastructure that supports DSAP capabilities. These DSAP capabilities are demonstrated through the use of a Multi-Replication Framework that supports (1) predictivie simulations using JSAF (Joint Semi-Automated Forces); (2) real-time simulation, also using JSAF, as a state estimation mechanism; and, (3) real-time C4I data updates through TBMCS (Theater Battle Management Core Systems). This infrastructure allows multiple replications of a simulation to be executed simultaneously over a grid faster-than-real-time, calibrated with live data feeds. A cost evaluator mechanism analyzes potential outcomes and prunes simulations that diverge from the real-time picture. In particular, this paper primarily serves to walk a user through the process for using the Multi-Replication Framework providing an enhanced decision aid.

  6. Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzav, Joel

    2011-06-01

    According to Austro-British philosopher Karl Popper, a system of theoretical claims is scientific only if it is methodologically falsifiable, i.e., only if systematic attempts to falsify or severely test the system are being carried out [Popper, 2005, pp. 20, 62]. He holds that a test of a theoretical system is severe if and only if it is a test of the applicability of the system to a case in which the system's failure is likely in light of background knowledge, i.e., in light of scientific assumptions other than those of the system being tested [Popper, 2002, p. 150]. Popper counts the 1919 tests of general relativity's then unlikely predictions of the deflection of light in the Sun's gravitational field as severe. An implication of Popper's above condition for being a scientific theoretical system is the injunction to assess theoretical systems in light of how well they have withstood severe testing. Applying this injunction to assessing the quality of climate model predictions (CMPs), including climate model projections, would involve assigning a quality to each CMP as a function of how well it has withstood severe tests allowed by its implications for past, present, and nearfuture climate or, alternatively, as a function of how well the models that generated the CMP have withstood severe tests of their suitability for generating the CMP.

  7. Lessons learned from accuracy assessment of IAEA-SPE-4 experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.

    2002-01-01

    The use of methods for code accuracy assessment has strongly increased in the last years. The methods suitable to provide quantitative comparison between the thermalhydraulic code predictions and experimental measurements were proposed e.g. fast Fourier transform based method (FFTBM), stochastic approximation ratio based method (SARBM) and a few methods used in the frame of the recently developed automated code assessment program (ACAP). Further, in the frame of FFTBM also a procedure to quantify the whole calculation was proposed with averaging of the results. The problem is that averaging may hide discrepancies highlighted in the qualitative analysis when only quantitative results are published. The purpose of the study was therefore to propose additional accuracy measures. New proposed measures were tested with IAEA-SPE-4 pre- and post-test predictions. The obtained results showed that the proposed measures improve the whole picture of the code accuracy. This is important when the reader is not provided with the accompanied qualitative analysis. The study shows that proposed accuracy measures efficiently increase the confidence in the quantitative results.(author)

  8. Non-animal methods to predict skin sensitization (II): an assessment of defined approaches *.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinstreuer, Nicole C; Hoffmann, Sebastian; Alépée, Nathalie; Allen, David; Ashikaga, Takao; Casey, Warren; Clouet, Elodie; Cluzel, Magalie; Desprez, Bertrand; Gellatly, Nichola; Göbel, Carsten; Kern, Petra S; Klaric, Martina; Kühnl, Jochen; Martinozzi-Teissier, Silvia; Mewes, Karsten; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Strickland, Judy; van Vliet, Erwin; Zang, Qingda; Petersohn, Dirk

    2018-05-01

    Skin sensitization is a toxicity endpoint of widespread concern, for which the mechanistic understanding and concurrent necessity for non-animal testing approaches have evolved to a critical juncture, with many available options for predicting sensitization without using animals. Cosmetics Europe and the National Toxicology Program Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods collaborated to analyze the performance of multiple non-animal data integration approaches for the skin sensitization safety assessment of cosmetics ingredients. The Cosmetics Europe Skin Tolerance Task Force (STTF) collected and generated data on 128 substances in multiple in vitro and in chemico skin sensitization assays selected based on a systematic assessment by the STTF. These assays, together with certain in silico predictions, are key components of various non-animal testing strategies that have been submitted to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development as case studies for skin sensitization. Curated murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human skin sensitization data were used to evaluate the performance of six defined approaches, comprising eight non-animal testing strategies, for both hazard and potency characterization. Defined approaches examined included consensus methods, artificial neural networks, support vector machine models, Bayesian networks, and decision trees, most of which were reproduced using open source software tools. Multiple non-animal testing strategies incorporating in vitro, in chemico, and in silico inputs demonstrated equivalent or superior performance to the LLNA when compared to both animal and human data for skin sensitization.

  9. Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, Luigi; Brittain, John E.; Haakanson, Lars; Heling, Rudie; Smith, Jim T.; Zheleznyak, Mark

    2003-01-01

    A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary

  10. Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

    2013-07-01

    Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  11. Assessment and validation of the CAESAR predictive model for bioconcentration factor (BCF in fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Chiara

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bioconcentration factor (BCF describes the behaviour of a chemical in terms of its likelihood of concentrating in organisms in the environment. It is a fundamental property in recent regulations, such as the European Community Regulation on chemicals and their safe use or the Globally Harmonized System for classification, labelling and packaging. These new regulations consider the possibility of reducing or waiving animal tests using alternative methods, such as in silico methods. This study assessed and validated the CAESAR predictive model for BCF in fish. Results To validate the model, new experimental data were collected and used to create an external set, as a second validation set (a first validation exercise had been done just after model development. The performance of the model was compared with BCFBAF v3.00. For continuous values and for classification purposes the CAESAR BCF model gave better results than BCFBAF v3.00 for the chemicals in the applicability domain of the model. R2 and Q2 were good and accuracy in classification higher than 90%. Applying an offset of 0.5 to the compounds predicted with BCF close to the thresholds, the number of false negatives (the most dangerous errors dropped considerably (less than 0.6% of chemicals. Conclusions The CAESAR model for BCF is useful for regulatory purposes because it is robust, reliable and predictive. It is also fully transparent and documented and has a well-defined applicability domain, as required by REACH. The model is freely available on the CAESAR web site and easy to use. The reliability of the model reporting the six most similar compounds found in the CAESAR dataset, and their experimental and predicted values, can be evaluated.

  12. Prospective assessment of dosimetric/physiologic-based models for predicting radiation pneumonitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocak, Zafer; Borst, Gerben R.; Zeng Jing; Zhou Sumin; Hollis, Donna R.; Zhang Junan; Evans, Elizabeth S.; Folz, Rodney J.; Wong, Terrence; Kahn, Daniel; Belderbos, Jose S.A.; Lebesque, Joos V.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Clinical and 3D dosimetric parameters are associated with symptomatic radiation pneumonitis rates in retrospective studies. Such parameters include: mean lung dose (MLD), radiation (RT) dose to perfused lung (via SPECT), and pre-RT lung function. Based on prior publications, we defined pre-RT criteria hypothesized to be predictive for later development of pneumonitis. We herein prospectively test the predictive abilities of these dosimetric/functional parameters on 2 cohorts of patients from Duke and Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI). Methods and Materials: For the Duke cohort, 55 eligible patients treated between 1999 and 2005 on a prospective IRB-approved study to monitor RT-induced lung injury were analyzed. A similar group of patients treated at the NKI between 1996 and 2002 were identified. Patients believed to be at high and low risk for pneumonitis were defined based on: (1) MLD; (2) OpRP (sum of predicted perfusion reduction based on regional dose-response curve); and (3) pre-RT DLCO. All doses reflected tissue density heterogeneity. The rates of grade ≥2 pneumonitis in the 'presumed' high and low risk groups were compared using Fisher's exact test. Results: In the Duke group, pneumonitis rates in patients prospectively deemed to be at 'high' vs. 'low' risk are 7 of 20 and 9 of 35, respectively; p = 0.33 one-tailed Fisher's. Similarly, comparable rates for the NKI group are 4 of 21 and 6 of 44, respectively, p = 0.41 one-tailed Fisher's. Conclusion: The prospective model appears unable to accurately segregate patients into high vs. low risk groups. However, considered retrospectively, these data are consistent with prior studies suggesting that dosimetric (e.g., MLD) and functional (e.g., PFTs or SPECT) parameters are predictive for RT-induced pneumonitis. Additional work is needed to better identify, and prospectively assess, predictors of RT-induced lung injury

  13. Rigorous assessment and integration of the sequence and structure based features to predict hot spots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yong

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Systematic mutagenesis studies have shown that only a few interface residues termed hot spots contribute significantly to the binding free energy of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, hot spots prediction becomes increasingly important for well understanding the essence of proteins interactions and helping narrow down the search space for drug design. Currently many computational methods have been developed by proposing different features. However comparative assessment of these features and furthermore effective and accurate methods are still in pressing need. Results In this study, we first comprehensively collect the features to discriminate hot spots and non-hot spots and analyze their distributions. We find that hot spots have lower relASA and larger relative change in ASA, suggesting hot spots tend to be protected from bulk solvent. In addition, hot spots have more contacts including hydrogen bonds, salt bridges, and atomic contacts, which favor complexes formation. Interestingly, we find that conservation score and sequence entropy are not significantly different between hot spots and non-hot spots in Ab+ dataset (all complexes. While in Ab- dataset (antigen-antibody complexes are excluded, there are significant differences in two features between hot pots and non-hot spots. Secondly, we explore the predictive ability for each feature and the combinations of features by support vector machines (SVMs. The results indicate that sequence-based feature outperforms other combinations of features with reasonable accuracy, with a precision of 0.69, a recall of 0.68, an F1 score of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 on independent test set. Compared with other machine learning methods and two energy-based approaches, our approach achieves the best performance. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to predict hot spots of two protein complexes. Conclusion Experimental results show that support vector machine

  14. Rigorous assessment and integration of the sequence and structure based features to predict hot spots

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Systematic mutagenesis studies have shown that only a few interface residues termed hot spots contribute significantly to the binding free energy of protein-protein interactions. Therefore, hot spots prediction becomes increasingly important for well understanding the essence of proteins interactions and helping narrow down the search space for drug design. Currently many computational methods have been developed by proposing different features. However comparative assessment of these features and furthermore effective and accurate methods are still in pressing need. Results In this study, we first comprehensively collect the features to discriminate hot spots and non-hot spots and analyze their distributions. We find that hot spots have lower relASA and larger relative change in ASA, suggesting hot spots tend to be protected from bulk solvent. In addition, hot spots have more contacts including hydrogen bonds, salt bridges, and atomic contacts, which favor complexes formation. Interestingly, we find that conservation score and sequence entropy are not significantly different between hot spots and non-hot spots in Ab+ dataset (all complexes). While in Ab- dataset (antigen-antibody complexes are excluded), there are significant differences in two features between hot pots and non-hot spots. Secondly, we explore the predictive ability for each feature and the combinations of features by support vector machines (SVMs). The results indicate that sequence-based feature outperforms other combinations of features with reasonable accuracy, with a precision of 0.69, a recall of 0.68, an F1 score of 0.68, and an AUC of 0.68 on independent test set. Compared with other machine learning methods and two energy-based approaches, our approach achieves the best performance. Moreover, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to predict hot spots of two protein complexes. Conclusion Experimental results show that support vector machine classifiers are quite

  15. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  16. Seismic rupture modelling, strong motion prediction and seismic hazard assessment: fundamental and applied approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berge-Thierry, C.

    2007-05-01

    The defence to obtain the 'Habilitation a Diriger des Recherches' is a synthesis of the research work performed since the end of my Ph D. thesis in 1997. This synthesis covers the two years as post doctoral researcher at the Bureau d'Evaluation des Risques Sismiques at the Institut de Protection (BERSSIN), and the seven consecutive years as seismologist and head of the BERSSIN team. This work and the research project are presented in the framework of the seismic risk topic, and particularly with respect to the seismic hazard assessment. Seismic risk combines seismic hazard and vulnerability. Vulnerability combines the strength of building structures and the human and economical consequences in case of structural failure. Seismic hazard is usually defined in terms of plausible seismic motion (soil acceleration or velocity) in a site for a given time period. Either for the regulatory context or the structural specificity (conventional structure or high risk construction), seismic hazard assessment needs: to identify and locate the seismic sources (zones or faults), to characterize their activity, to evaluate the seismic motion to which the structure has to resist (including the site effects). I specialized in the field of numerical strong-motion prediction using high frequency seismic sources modelling and forming part of the IRSN allowed me to rapidly working on the different tasks of seismic hazard assessment. Thanks to the expertise practice and the participation to the regulation evolution (nuclear power plants, conventional and chemical structures), I have been able to work on empirical strong-motion prediction, including site effects. Specific questions related to the interface between seismologists and structural engineers are also presented, especially the quantification of uncertainties. This is part of the research work initiated to improve the selection of the input ground motion in designing or verifying the stability of structures. (author)

  17. Qualitative assessment of awake nasopharyngoscopy for prediction of oral appliance treatment response in obstructive sleep apnoea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Kate; Chan, Andrew S L; Ngiam, Joachim; Darendeliler, M Ali; Cistulli, Peter A

    2018-01-23

    Clinical methods to identify responders to oral appliance (OA) therapy for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) are needed. Awake nasopharyngoscopy during mandibular advancement, with image capture and subsequent processing and analysis, may predict treatment response. A qualitative assessment of awake nasopharyngoscopy would be simpler for clinical practice. We aimed to determine if a qualitative classification system of nasopharyngoscopic observations reflects treatment response. OSA patients were recruited for treatment with a customised two-piece OA. A custom scoring sheet was used to record observations of the pharyngeal airway (velopharynx, oropharynx, hypopharynx) during supine nasopharyngoscopy in response to mandibular advancement and performance of the Müller manoeuvre. Qualitative scores for degree ( 75%), collapse pattern (concentric, anteroposterior, lateral) and diameter change (uniform, anteroposterior, lateral) were recorded. Treatment outcome was confirmed by polysomnography after a titration period of 14.6 ± 9.8 weeks. Treatment response was defined as (1) Treatment AHI  50% AHI reduction and (3) > 50% AHI reduction. Eighty OSA patients (53.8% male) underwent nasopharyngoscopy. The most common naspharyngoscopic observation with mandibular advancement was a small ( 75% velopharyngeal collapse on performance of the Müller manoeuvre. Mandibular advancement reduced the observed level of pharyngeal collapse at all three pharyngeal regions (p < 0.001). None of the nasopharyngoscopic qualitative scores differed between responder and non-responder groups. Qualitative assessment of awake nasopharyngoscopy appears useful for assessing the effect of mandibular advancement on upper airway collapsibility. However, it is not sensitive enough to predict oral appliance treatment outcome.

  18. Predictive validity of the personal qualities assessment for selection of medical students in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowell, Jon; Lumsden, Mary Ann; Powis, David; Munro, Don; Bore, Miles; Makubate, Boikanyo; Kumwenda, Ben

    2011-01-01

    The Personal Qualities Assessment (PQA) was developed to enhance medical student selection by measuring a range of non-cognitive attributes in the applicants to medical school. Applicants to the five Scottish medical schools were invited to pilot the test in 2001 and 2002. To evaluate the predictive validity of PQA for selecting medical students. A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in which PQA scores were compared with senior year medical school performance. Consent to access performance markers was obtained from 626 students (61.6% of 1017 entrants in 2002-2003). Linkable Foundation Year (4th) rankings were available for 411 (66%) students and objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) rankings for 335 (54%) of those consenting. Both samples were representative of the original cohort. No significant correlations were detected between separate elements of the PQA assessment and student performance. However, using the algorithm advocated by Powis et al. those defined as 'non-extreme' (libertarian-communitarian moral orientation scales were ranked higher in OSCEs (average of 7.5% or 25 out of 335, p = 0.049). This study was limited by high attrition and basic outcome markers which are insensitive to relevant non-cognitive characteristics. However, it is the largest currently available study of predictive validity for the PQA assessment. There was one finding of significance: that those students who were identified by PQA as 'not extreme' on the two personal characteristics scales performed better in an OSCE measure of professionalism. Futures studies are required since psychometric testing for both cognitive and non-cognitive attributes are increasingly used in admission process and these should include more and better measures of professionalism against which to correlate non-cognitive traits.

  19. Validation of the multiplier method for leg-length predictions on a large European cohort and an assessment of the effect of physiological age on predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aird, J J; Cheesman, C L; Schade, A T; Monsell, F P

    2017-01-01

    The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) prospective cohort was used to determine the accuracy of the Paley multiplier method for predicting leg length. Using menarche as a proxy, physiological age was then used to increase the accuracy of the multiplier. Chronological age was corrected in female patients over the age of eight years with documented date of first menses. Final sub-ischial leg length and predicted final leg length were predicted for all data points. Good correlation was demonstrated between the Paley and ALSPAC data. The average error in prediction depended on the time of assessment, tending to improve as the child got older. It varied from 2.2 cm at the age of seven years to 1.8 cm at the age of 14 years. When chronological age was corrected, the accuracy of multiplier increased. Age correction of 50% improved multiplier predictions by up to 28%. There appears to have been no significant change in growth trajectories of the two populations who were chronologically separated by 40 years. While the Paley data were based on extracting trends from averaged data, the ALSPAC dataset provides descriptive statistics from which it is possible to compare populations and assess the accuracy of the multiplier method. The data suggest that the accuracy improves as the patient gets close to the average skeletal maturity but that results need to be interpreted in conjunction with a radiological assessment of the growth plates. The magnitude of the errors in prediction suggest that when using the multiplier, the clinician must remain vigilant and prepared to perform a contralateral epiphyseodisis if the prediction proves to be wrong. The data suggest a relationship between the multiplier and menarche. There appears to be a factorisation and when accounting for physiological age, one needs to correct by 50% of the difference between chronological and physiological age.

  20. ["Screening" in special situations. Assessing predictive genetic screening for hereditary breast and colorectal cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, Susanna; Wild, Claudia; Schamberger, Chantal

    2003-02-01

    The aim of this health technology assessment was to analyse the current scientific and genetic counselling on predictive genetic testing for hereditary breast and colorectal cancer. Predictive genetic testing will be available for several common diseases in the future and questions related to financial issues and quality standards will be raised. This report is based on a systematic/nonsystematic literature search in several databases (e.g. EmBase, Medline, Cochrane Library) and on a specific health technology assessment report (CCOHTA) and review (American Gastroenterological Ass.), respectively. Laboratory test methods, early detection methods and the benefit from prophylactic interventions were analysed and social consequences interpreted. Breast and colorectal cancer are counted among the most frequently cancer diseases. Most of them are based on random accumulation of risk factors, 5-10% show a familial determination. A hereditary modified gene is responsible for the increased cancer risk. In these families, high tumour frequency, young age at diagnosis and multiple primary tumours are remarkable. GENETIC DIAGNOSIS: Sequence analysis is the gold standard. Denaturing high performance liquid chromatography is a quick alternative method. The identification of the responsible gene defect in an affected family member is important. If the test result is positive there is an uncertainty whether the disease will develop or not, when and in which degree, which is founded in the geno-/phenotype correlation. The individual risk estimation is based upon empirical evidence. The test results affect the whole family. Currently, primary prevention is possible for familial adenomatous polyposis (celecoxib, prophylactic colectomy) and for hereditary mamma carcinoma (prophylactic mastectomy). The so-called preventive medical check-ups are early detection examinations. The evidence about early detection methods for colorectal cancer is better than for breast cancer. Prophylactic

  1. Initial clinical experience with an interactive, video-based patient-positioning system for head and neck treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, L.; Hadley, Scott W.; Milliken, Barrett D.; Pelizzari, Charles A.; Haraf, Daniel J.; Nguyen, Ai; Chen, George T.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate an interactive, video-based system for positioning head and neck patients. Materials and Methods: System hardware includes two B and W CCD cameras (mounted to provide left-lateral and AP-inferior views), zoom lenses, and a PC equipped with a frame grabber. Custom software is used to acquire and archive video images, as well as to display real-time subtraction images revealing patient misalignment in multiple views. Live subtraction images are obtained by subtracting a reference image (i.e., an image of the patient in the correct position) from real-time video. As seen in the figure, darker regions of the subtraction image indicate where the patient is currently, while lighter regions indicate where the patient should be. Adjustments in the patient's position are updated and displayed in less than 0.07s, allowing the therapist to interactively detect and correct setup discrepancies. Patients selected for study are treated BID and immobilized with conventional litecast straps attached to a baseframe which is registered to the treatment couch. Morning setups are performed by aligning litecast marks and patient anatomy to treatment room lasers. Afternoon setups begin with the same procedure, and then live subtraction images are used to fine-tune the setup. At morning and afternoon setups, video images and verification films are taken after positioning is complete. These are visually registered offline to determine the distribution of setup errors per patient, with and without video assistance. Results: Without video assistance, the standard deviation of setup errors typically ranged from 5 to 7mm and was patient-dependent. With video assistance, standard deviations are reduced to 1 to 4mm, with the result depending on patient coopertiveness and the length of time spent fine-tuning the setups. At current levels of experience, 3 to 4mm accuracy is easily achieved in about 30s, while 1 to 3mm accuracy is achieved in about 1 to 2 minutes. Studies

  2. Predicting Performance: A Comparison of University Supervisors' Predictions and Teacher Candidates' Scores on a Teaching Performance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandholtz, Judith Haymore; Shea, Lauren M.

    2012-01-01

    The implementation of teaching performance assessments has prompted a range of concerns. Some educators question whether these assessments provide information beyond what university supervisors gain through their formative evaluations and classroom observations of candidates. This research examines the relationship between supervisors' predictions…

  3. Workplace-based assessments of junior doctors: do scores predict training difficulties?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Colin; Bhat, Sarita; Herbert, Anne; Baker, Paul

    2011-12-01

    Workplace-based assessment (WPBA) is an increasingly important part of postgraduate medical training and its results may be used as evidence of professional competence. This study evaluates the ability of WPBA to distinguish UK Foundation Programme (FP) doctors with training difficulties and its effectiveness as a surrogate marker for deficiencies in professional competence. We conducted a retrospective observational study using anonymised records for 1646 trainees in a single UK postgraduate deanery. Data for WPBAs conducted from August 2005 to April 2009 were extracted from the e-portfolio database. These data included all scores submitted by trainees in FP years 1 and 2 on mini-clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), case-based discussion (CbD), direct observation of procedural skills (DOPS) and mini-peer assessment tool (mini-PAT) assessments. Records of trainees in difficulty, as identified by their educational supervisors, were tagged as index cases. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (ORs) for associations between mean WPBA scores and training difficulties. Further analyses by the reported aetiology of the training difficulty (health-, conduct- or performance-related) were performed. Of the 1646 trainees, 92 had been identified as being in difficulty. Mean CbD and mini-CEX scores were lower for trainees in difficulty and an association was found between identified training difficulties and average scores on the mini-CEX (OR = 0.54; p = 0.034) and CbD (OR = 0.39; p = 0.002). A receiver operator characteristic curve analysis of mean WPBA scores for diagnosing 'in difficulty' status yielded an area under the curve of 0.64, indicating weak predictive value. There was no statistical evidence that mean scores on DOPS and mini-PAT assessments differed between the two groups. Analysis of a large dataset of WPBA scores revealed significant associations between training difficulties and lower mean scores on both the mini-CEX and CbD. Models show that using WPBA

  4. NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT IN PATIENTS PREDICTED TO MAJOR ABDOMINAL SURGERY AT THE GENERAL HOSPITAL CELJE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Novak

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Malnutrition has serious implications for recovery after surgery. Early detection of malnutrition with nutritional support minimizes postoperative complications. Nutritional assessment tools need to be simple and suitable for use in everyday practice. In our study we wanted to determine, how many patients might benefit from nutritional support.Methods. From April to August 1999 fifty consecutively admitted patients predicted to major abdominal surgery have been examined. We used Mini nutritional assessment (MNA, Buzby’s nutrition risk index (NRI, blood albumin level and weight loss in the last 3 months period prior to the examination, to assess nutritional status.Results. We examined 50 patients (27 males and 23 females, age 76.5 ± 16.5 and confirmed malnutrition in 40% of patients with MNA and serum albumin level. The increased risk for nutrition-associated complications was confirmed by NRI and weight loss in 44%.Conclusions. A confident diagnosis of malnutrition and increased risk for nutrition-associated complications can be established by using a combination of simple methods like MNA, NRI, weight loss and serum albumin level. Almost half of the patients admitted for major abdominal surgery in General hospital Celje suffer from malnutrition and they may benefit with early nutritional intervention.

  5. Value of geriatric frailty and nutritional status assessment in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegels, Juul J W; de Maat, M F G; Hulsewé, K W E; Hoofwijk, A G M; Stoot, J H M B

    2014-03-01

    This study seeks to evaluate assessment of geriatric frailty and nutritional status in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery. Preoperatively, patients operated for gastric adenocarcinoma underwent assessment of Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI) and Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire (SNAQ). We studied retrospectively whether these scores were associated with in-hospital mortality. From 2005 to September 2012 180 patients underwent surgery with an overall mortality of 8.3%. Patients with a GFI ≥ 3 (n = 30, 24%) had a mortality rate of 23.3% versus 5.2% in the lower GFI group (OR 4.0, 95%CI 1.1-14.1, P = 0.03). For patients who underwent surgery with curative intent (n = 125), this was 27.3% for patients with GFI ≥ 3 (n = 22, 18%) versus 5.7% with GFI gastric cancer surgical mortality and geriatric frailty as well as nutritional status using a simple questionnaire. This may have implications in preoperative decision making in selecting patients who optimally benefit from surgery.

  6. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  7. Video-based quantification of body movement during social interaction indicates the severity of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupper, Zeno; Ramseyer, Fabian; Hoffmann, Holger; Kalbermatten, Samuel; Tschacher, Wolfgang

    2010-08-01

    In schizophrenia, nonverbal behavior, including body movement, is of theoretical and clinical importance. Although reduced nonverbal expressiveness is a major component of the negative symptoms encountered in schizophrenia, few studies have objectively assessed body movement during social interaction. In the present study, 378 brief, videotaped role-play scenes involving 27 stabilized outpatients diagnosed with paranoid-type schizophrenia were analyzed using Motion Energy Analysis (MEA). This method enables the objective measuring of body movement in conjunction with ordinary video recordings. Correlations between movement parameters (percentage of time in movement, movement speed) and symptom ratings from independent PANSS interviews were calculated. Movement parameters proved to be highly reliable. In keeping with predictions, reduced movement and movement speed correlated with negative symptoms. Accordingly, in patients who exhibited noticeable movement for less than 20% of the observation time, prominent negative symptoms were highly probable. As a control measure, the percentage of movement exhibited by the patients during role-play scenes was compared to that of their normal interactants. Patients with negative symptoms differed from normal interactants by showing significantly reduced head and body movement. Two specific positive symptoms were possibly related to movement parameters: suspiciousness tended to correlate with reduced head movement, and the expression of unusual thought content tended to relate to increased movement. Overall, a close and theoretically meaningful association between the objective movement parameters and the symptom profiles was found. MEA appears to be an objective, reliable and valid method for quantifying nonverbal behavior, an aspect which may furnish new insights into the processes related to reduced expressiveness in schizophrenia. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yu; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Grieneisen, Michael L; Zhang, Minghua; Di, Baofeng

    2018-02-01

    In China, ozone pollution shows an increasing trend and becomes the primary air pollutant in warm seasons. Leveraging the air quality monitoring network, a random forest model is developed to predict the daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations ([O 3 ] MDA8 ) across China in 2015 for human exposure assessment. This model captures the observed spatiotemporal variations of [O 3 ] MDA8 by using the data of meteorology, elevation, and recent-year emission inventories (cross-validation R 2  = 0.69 and RMSE = 26 μg/m 3 ). Compared with chemical transport models that require a plenty of variables and expensive computation, the random forest model shows comparable or higher predictive performance based on only a handful of readily-available variables at much lower computational cost. The nationwide population-weighted [O 3 ] MDA8 is predicted to be 84 ± 23 μg/m 3 annually, with the highest seasonal mean in the summer (103 ± 8 μg/m 3 ). The summer [O 3 ] MDA8 is predicted to be the highest in North China (125 ± 17 μg/m 3 ). Approximately 58% of the population lives in areas with more than 100 nonattainment days ([O 3 ] MDA8 >100 μg/m 3 ), and 12% of the population are exposed to [O 3 ] MDA8 >160 μg/m 3 (WHO Interim Target 1) for more than 30 days. As the most populous zones in China, the Beijing-Tianjin Metro, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Sichuan Basin are predicted to be at 154, 141, 124, and 98 nonattainment days, respectively. Effective controls of O 3 pollution are urgently needed for the highly-populated zones, especially the Beijing-Tianjin Metro with seasonal [O 3 ] MDA8 of 140 ± 29 μg/m 3 in summer. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first statistical modeling work of ambient O 3 for China at the national level. This timely and extensively validated [O 3 ] MDA8 dataset is valuable for refining epidemiological analyses on O 3 pollution in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  9. Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

    2018-06-01

    Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via

  10. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Coccia

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The work aims at discussing the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and flood emergency management, its relevance to improve the decision making process and the techniques to be used for its assessment.

    Real time flood forecasting requires taking into account predictive uncertainty for a number of reasons. Deterministic hydrological/hydraulic forecasts give useful information about real future events, but their predictions, as usually done in practice, cannot be taken and used as real future occurrences but rather used as pseudo-measurements of future occurrences in order to reduce the uncertainty of decision makers. Predictive Uncertainty (PU is in fact defined as the probability of occurrence of a future value of a predictand (such as water level, discharge or water volume conditional upon prior observations and knowledge as well as on all the information we can obtain on that specific future value from model forecasts. When dealing with commensurable quantities, as in the case of floods, PU must be quantified in terms of a probability distribution function which will be used by the emergency managers in their decision process in order to improve the quality and reliability of their decisions.

    After introducing the concept of PU, the presently available processors are introduced and discussed in terms of their benefits and limitations. In this work the Model Conditional Processor (MCP has been extended to the possibility of using two joint Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs, in order to improve adaptation to low and high flows.

    The paper concludes by showing the results of the application of the MCP on two case studies, the Po river in Italy and the Baron Fork river, OK, USA. In the Po river case the data provided by the Civil Protection of the Emilia Romagna region have been used to implement an operational example, where the predicted variable is the observed water level. In the Baron Fork River

  11. Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

    2009-08-01

    Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis

  12. Effect of an online video-based intervention to increase HIV testing in men who have sex with men in Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magaly M Blas

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Although many men who have sex with men (MSM in Peru are unaware of their HIV status, they are frequent users of the Internet, and can be approached by that medium for promotion of HIV testing.We conducted an online randomized controlled trial to compare the effect of HIV-testing motivational videos versus standard public health text, both offered through a gay website. The videos were customized for two audiences based on self-identification: either gay or non-gay men. The outcomes evaluated were 'intention to get tested' and 'HIV testing at the clinic.'In the non-gay identified group, 97 men were randomly assigned to the video-based intervention and 90 to the text-based intervention. Non-gay identified participants randomized to the video-based intervention were more likely to report their intention of getting tested for HIV within the next 30 days (62.5% vs. 15.4%, Relative Risk (RR: 2.77, 95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.42-5.39. After a mean of 125.5 days of observation (range 42-209 days, 11 participants randomized to the video and none of the participants randomized to text attended our clinic requesting HIV testing (p = 0.001. In the gay-identified group, 142 men were randomized to the video-based intervention and 130 to the text-based intervention. Gay-identified participants randomized to the video were more likely to report intentions of getting an HIV test within 30 days, although not significantly (50% vs. 21.6%, RR: 1.54, 95% CI: 0.74-3.20. At the end of follow up, 8 participants who watched the video and 10 who read the text visited our clinic for HIV testing (Hazard Ratio: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.40-2.85.This study provides some evidence of the efficacy of a video-based online intervention in improving HIV testing among non-gay-identified MSM in Peru. This intervention may be adopted by institutions with websites oriented to motivate HIV testing among similar MSM populations.Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00751192.

  13. Predictive validity of driving-simulator assessments following traumatic brain injury: a preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lew, Henry L; Poole, John H; Lee, Eun Ha; Jaffe, David L; Huang, Hsiu-Chen; Brodd, Edward

    2005-03-01

    To evaluate whether driving simulator and road test evaluations can predict long-term driving performance, we conducted a prospective study on 11 patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury. Sixteen healthy subjects were also tested to provide normative values on the simulator at baseline. At their initial evaluation (time-1), subjects' driving skills were measured during a 30-minute simulator trial using an automated 12-measure Simulator Performance Index (SPI), while a trained observer also rated their performance using a Driving Performance Inventory (DPI). In addition, patients were evaluated on the road by a certified driving evaluator. Ten months later (time-2), family members observed patients driving for at least 3 hours over 4 weeks and rated their driving performance using the DPI. At time-1, patients were significantly impaired on automated SPI measures of driving skill, including: speed and steering control, accidents, and vigilance to a divided-attention task. These simulator indices significantly predicted the following aspects of observed driving performance at time-2: handling of automobile controls, regulation of vehicle speed and direction, higher-order judgment and self-control, as well as a trend-level association with car accidents. Automated measures of simulator skill (SPI) were more sensitive and accurate than observational measures of simulator skill (DPI) in predicting actual driving performance. To our surprise, the road test results at time-1 showed no significant relation to driving performance at time-2. Simulator-based assessment of patients with brain injuries can provide ecologically valid measures that, in some cases, may be more sensitive than a traditional road test as predictors of long-term driving performance in the community.

  14. Assessing cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure to predict incident hypertension in a general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorbeer, Roberto; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Gläser, Sven; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Dörr, Marcus

    2015-07-01

    Cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure (BP) are not established in hypertension guidelines. The aim of the study was to assess optimal cutoff values for increased exercise BP to predict incident hypertension. Data of 661 normotensive participants (386 women) aged 25-77 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-1) with a 5-year follow-up were used. Exercise BP was measured at a submaximal level of 100 W and at maximum level of a symptom-limited cycle ergometry test. Cutoff values for increased exercise BP were defined at the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of incident hypertension. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated to investigate whether increased exercise BP adds predictive value for incident hypertension beyond established cardiovascular risk factors. In men, values of 160  mmHg (100  W level; AUC = 0.7837; NRI = 0.534, P AUC = 0.7677; NRI = 0.340, P = 0.003) were detected as optimal cutoff values for the definition of increased exercise SBP. A value of 190  mmHg (AUC = 0.8347; NRI = 0.519, P < 0.001) showed relevance for the definition of increased exercise SBP in women at the maximum level. According to our analyses, 190 and 210  mmHg are clinically relevant cutoff values for increased exercise SBP at the maximum exercise level of cycle ergometry test for women and men, respectively. In addition, for men, our analyses provided a cutoff value of 160  mmHg for increased exercise SBP at the 100  W level.

  15. Fatigue mechanics - An assessment of a unified approach to life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, J.C. Jr.; Phillips, E.P.; Swain, M.H.; Everett, R.A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Consideration is given to the development of a total-life prediction methodology for aerospace structures based solely on crack propagation from a microstructural defect at stress concentrations. Crack-growth lives were calculated for a given loading condition by integrating the crack-growth-rate-against-delta K relationships for crack growth from a microstructural defect size to failure. Both small- and large-crack growth rate data were used. The assessment was based on data on 2024-T3 aluminum alloy, 2090-T8E41 aluminum-lithium alloy, annealed Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy, and high-strength 4340 steel under either constant-amplitude or spectrum loading. Good agreement was found between fatigue lives measured on notched specimens with those computed from the total-life analysis. 29 refs

  16. Assessing fitness-for-duty and predicting performance with cognitive neurophysiological measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael E.; Gevins, Alan

    2005-05-01

    Progress is described in developing a novel test of neurocognitive status for fitness-for-duty testing. The Sustained Attention & Memory (SAM) test combines neurophysiologic (EEG) measures of brain activation with performance measures during a psychometric test of sustained attention and working memory, and then gauges changes in neurocognitive status relative to an individual"s normative baseline. In studies of the effects of common psychoactive substances that can affect job performance, including sedating antihistamines, caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, and prescription medications, test sensitivity was greater for the combined neurophysiological and performance measures than for task performance measures by themselves. The neurocognitive effects of overnight sleep deprivation were quite evident, and such effects predicted subsequent performance impairment on a flight simulator task. Sensitivity to diurnal circadian variations was also demonstrated. With further refinement and independent validation, the SAM Test may prove useful for assessing readiness-to-perform in high-asset personnel working in demanding, high risk situations.

  17. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-21

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  18. A high COPD assessment test score may predict anxiety in COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harryanto H

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Hilman Harryanto,1 Sally Burrows,2 Yuben Moodley1,2 1Department of Respiratory Medicine, Fiona Stanley Hospital, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, AustraliaThe prevalence of anxiety is 55% in patients with COPD,1 and it is associated with worse disease control. Therefore, early recognition and institution of treatment of this comorbidity significantly improve patient’s quality of life. Recently, a questionnaire called the COPD assessment test (CAT has been incorporated into the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD guidelines for the management of COPD, and a higher score is associated with increased COPD symptoms.2 Considering the regular use of CAT, it was evaluated whether this tool can also be used to identify anxiety. The CAT score was correlated with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS to determine the level at which CAT may predict anxiety.

  19. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-04-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions.

  20. Proceedings of the international symposium: Transfer of radionuclides in biosphere. Prediction and assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Hikaru

    2003-09-01

    The International Symposium : Transfer of Radionuclides in Biosphere - Prediction and Assessment was held at Mito on the 18th and 19th of December 2002. This International Symposium was organized by the Interchange Committee on Radionuclide Transfer in Soil Ecosphere. This project is the 3rd Phase Crossover Research, which is engaged in cooperation with five organizations: Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS), RIKEN (Institute of Physical and Chemical Research) and Institute for Environmental Sciences (IES). The main objective of this symposium is to discuss and exchange recent findings and ideas in the area of the behavior and transfer of radionuclides in biosphere. One of the important topics in this symposium is to discuss a suitable transfer model and transfer parameters which may be adapted for Southeast Asian countries including Japan, as environmental conditions and foodstuffs in this region are significantly different from those in Europe and North America. It will be hoped that the predictions of the consequences of the release of radionuclides in the terrestrial environment will be improved through exchange of views and new results. The symposium consisted of 12 invited lectures and 44 poster presentations. The 117 participants attended the symposium, including 19 foreigners coming from 12 countries. (author)

  1. Rapid in situ assessment for predicting soil quality using an algae-soaked disc seeding assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Sun-Hwa; Moon, Jongmin; Kim, Shin Woong; Kim, Hakyeong; Jeong, Seung-Woo; An, Youn-Joo

    2017-11-16

    The soil quality of remediated land is altered and this land consequently exerts unexpected biological effects on terrestrial organisms. Therefore, field evaluation of such land should be conducted using biological indicators. Algae are a promising new biological indicator since they are a food source for organisms in higher soil trophic levels and easily sampled from the soil. Field evaluation of soil characteristics is preferred to be testing in laboratory conditions because many biological effects cannot be duplicated during laboratory evaluations. Herein, we describe a convenient and rapid algae-soaked disc seeding assay for assessing soil quality in the field based on soil algae. The collection of algae is easy and rapid and the method predicts the short-term quality of contaminated, remediated, and amended farm and paddy soils. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is yet to be extensively evaluated, and the method cannot be applied to loamy sand soil in in situ evaluations. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay is recommended for prediction of soil quality in in situ evaluations because it reflects all variations in the environment. The algae-soaked disc seeding assay will help to develop management strategies for in situ evaluation.

  2. Use of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BUCKLEY, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This report provides background information on the implementation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) software package at the Savannah River Site for atmospheric modeling. Developed by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), HPAC is actually a suite of models that allows for various modes of release of radiological, chemical and biological agents, generates interpolated meteorological data fields based on inputted meteorology, and transports the material using a tested transport and diffusion model. A discussion of meteorological data availability for direct use by HPAC is given, and is important for applications to emergency response. An evaluation of the data input methodology for a release from SRS is examined, as well as an application to the World Trade Center attacks in New York City in September 2001. Benefits of the newer versions of HPAC now in use are then discussed. These include access to more meteorological data sources and improved graphical cap abilities. The HPAC software package is another tool to help the Atmospheric Technologies Group (ATG) provide atmospheric transport and dispersion predictions in the event of hazardous atmospheric releases

  3. The Wally plot approach to assess the calibration of clinical prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Paul; Gerds, Thomas A; Ekstrøm, Claus T

    2017-12-06

    A prediction model is calibrated if, roughly, for any percentage x we can expect that x subjects out of 100 experience the event among all subjects that have a predicted risk of x%. Typically, the calibration assumption is assessed graphically but in practice it is often challenging to judge whether a "disappointing" calibration plot is the consequence of a departure from the calibration assumption, or alternatively just "bad luck" due to sampling variability. We propose a graphical approach which enables the visualization of how much a calibration plot agrees with the calibration assumption to address this issue. The approach is mainly based on the idea of generating new plots which mimic the available data under the calibration assumption. The method handles the common non-trivial situations in which the data contain censored observations and occurrences of competing events. This is done by building on ideas from constrained non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation methods. Two examples from large cohort data illustrate our proposal. The 'wally' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable.

  4. Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

  5. Interactive Digital Serious Games for the Assessment, Rehabilitation, and Prediction of Dementia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Kazmi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Dementia is a serious, progressive, and often debilitating illness with no known cure, having a severe adverse effect on memory, behaviour, reasoning, and communication. A comprehensive review of current refereed research material in the use of games in this area is scarce and suffers from being orientated towards commercially available games or derivatives such as “Dr. Kawashima’s brain training.” There is much lesser concern for bespoke research grade alternatives. This review will attempt to assess the current state of the art in research orientated games for dementia, importantly identifying systems capable of prediction before the onset of the disease. It can be ascertained from the literature reviewed that there are clearly a large number of interactive computer game based mechanisms used for dementia. However, these are each highly intrusive in terms of affecting normal living and the patient is aware of being tested; furthermore their long-term or real benefits are unknown as is their effect over conventional tests. It is important to predict cognitive impairment at a stage early enough to maximise benefit from treatment and therapeutic intervention. Considering the availability, use, and increasing power of modern mobile smartphones, it is logically plausible to explore this platform for dementia healthcare.

  6. Prediction of Post-stroke Falls by Quantitative Assessment of Balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun Haeng; Jung, Se Hee

    2017-06-01

    To evaluate characteristics of the postural instability in patients with stroke and to present a prediction model of post-stroke falls. Patients with a first-ever stroke who had been evaluated by the Balance Master (BM) at post-stroke 3 months (±1 month) between August 2011 and December 2015 were enrolled. Parameters for the postural instability, such as the weight bearing asymmetry (WBA) and postural sway velocity (PSV), were obtained. The fall events in daily lives were assessed via structured telephone interview with a fall related questionnaire. A total of 71 patients (45 men; 45 with ischemic stroke) were enrolled in this study. All subjects underwent BM evaluation at 3.03±0.40 months after stroke. The mean WBA was 17.18%±13.10% and mean PSV (measured as °/s) were noted as 0.66±0.37 (eyes-open on firm surface), 0.89±0.75 (eyes-closed on firm surface), 1.45±1.09 (eyes-open on soft surface), and 3.10±1.76 (eyes-closed on soft surface). A prediction model of post-stroke falls was drawn by multiple logistic regression analysis as follows: Risk of post-stroke falls = -2.848 + 1.878 x (PSV ECSS ) + 0.154 x (age=1 if age≥65; age=0 if agerisk of post-stroke falls.

  7. Assessment of the GOTHIC code for prediction of hydrogen flame propagation in small scale experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jin-Yong . E-mail jinyong1@fnctech.com; Lee, Jung-Jae; Park, Goon-Cherl . E-mail parkgc@snu.ac.kr

    2006-01-01

    With the rising concerns regarding the time and space dependent hydrogen behavior in severe accidents, the calculation for local hydrogen combustion in compartment has been attempted using CFD codes like GOTHIC. In particular, the space resolved hydrogen combustion analysis is essential to address certain safety issues such as the safety components survivability, and to determine proper positions for hydrogen control devices as e.q. recombiners or igniters. In the GOTHIC 6.1b code, there are many advanced features associated with the hydrogen burn models to enhance its calculation capability. In this study, we performed premixed hydrogen/air combustion experiments with an upright, rectangular shaped, combustion chamber of dimensions 1 m x 0.024 m x 1 m. The GOTHIC 6.1b code was used to simulate the hydrogen/air combustion experiments, and its prediction capability was assessed by comparing the experimental with multidimensional calculational results. Especially, the prediction capability of the GOTHIC 6.1b code for local hydrogen flame propagation phenomena was examined. For some cases, comparisons are also presented for lumped modeling of hydrogen combustion. By evaluating the effect of parametric simulations, we present some instructions for local hydrogen combustion analysis using the GOTHIC 6.1b code. From the analyses results, it is concluded that the modeling parameter of GOTHIC 6.1b code should be modified when applying the mechanistic burn model for hydrogen propagation analysis in small geometry

  8. Prediction of pain in orthodontic patients based on preoperative pain assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Baoyu; Ren, Manman; Lin, Feiou; Yao, Linjie

    2016-01-01

    Aim To investigate whether pretreatment assessment of experimental pain can predict the level of pain after archwire placement. Methods One hundred and twenty-one general university students seeking orthodontic treatment were enrolled in this study. A cold pressor test was performed to estimate the pain tolerance of subjects before treatment. Self-reported pain intensity was calculated using a 10 cm visual analog scale during the 7 days after treatment. The relationship between pain tolerance and orthodontic pain was analyzed using Spearman’s correlation analysis. Results The maximum mean level of pain intensity occurred at 24 hours after bonding (53.31±16.13) and fell to normal levels at day 7. Spearman’s correlation analysis found a moderate positive association between preoperative pain tolerance and self-reported pain after archwire placement (P0.05). Conclusion A simple and noninvasive preoperative sensory test (the cold pressor test) was useful in predicting the risk of developing unbearable pain in patients after archwire placement. Self-reported pain after archwire placement decreased as individual pain tolerance increased. PMID:27042019

  9. Nutritional assessment: comparison of clinical assessment and objective variables for the prediction of length of hospital stay and readmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeejeebhoy, Khursheed N; Keller, Heather; Gramlich, Leah; Allard, Johane P; Laporte, Manon; Duerksen, Donald R; Payette, Helene; Bernier, Paule; Vesnaver, Elisabeth; Davidson, Bridget; Teterina, Anastasia; Lou, Wendy

    2015-05-01

    Nutritional assessment commonly includes multiple nutrition indicators (NIs). To promote efficiency, a minimum set is needed for the diagnosis of malnutrition in the acute care setting. The objective was to compare the ability of different NIs to predict outcomes of length of hospital stay and readmission to refine the detection of malnutrition in acute care. This was a prospective cohort study of 1022 patients recruited from 18 acute care hospitals (academic and community), from 8 provinces across Canada, between 1 July 2010 and 28 February 2013. Participants were patients aged ≥18 y admitted to medical and surgical wards. NIs measured at admission were subjective global assessment (SGA; SGA A = well nourished, SGA B = mild or moderate malnutrition, and SGA C = severe malnutrition), Nutrition Risk Screening (2002), body weight, midarm and calf circumference, serum albumin, handgrip strength (HGS), and patient-self assessment of food intake. Logistic regression determined the independent effect of NIs on the outcomes of length of hospital stay (available for analysis. After we controlled for age, sex, and diagnosis, only SGA C (OR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.28, 3.75), HGS (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99 per kg of increase), and reduced food intake during the first week of hospitalization (OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.11) were independent predictors of length of stay. SGA C (OR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.24, 3.93) and HGS (OR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.98) but not food intake were independent predictors of 30-d readmission. SGA, HGS, and food intake were independent predictors of outcomes for malnutrition. Because food intake in this study was judged days after admission and HGS has a wide range of normal values, SGA is the single best predictor and should be advocated as the primary measure for diagnosis of malnutrition. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02351661. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

  10. Endoscopic assessment and prediction of prostate urethral disintegration after histotripsy treatment in a canine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schade, George R; Styn, Nicholas R; Hall, Timothy L; Roberts, William W

    2012-02-01

    Histotripsy is a nonthermal focused ultrasound technology that uses acoustic cavitation to homogenize tissue. Previous research has demonstrated that the prostatic urethra is more resistant to histotripsy effects than prostate parenchyma, a finding that may complicate the creation of transurethral resection of the prostate-like treatment cavities. The purpose of this study was to characterize the endoscopic appearance of the prostatic urethra during and after histotripsy treatment and to identify features that are predictive of urethral disintegration. Thirty-five histotripsy treatments were delivered in a transverse plane traversing the prostatic urethra in 17 canine subjects (1-3/prostate ≥1 cm apart). Real-time endoscopy was performed in the first four subjects to characterize development of acute urethral treatment effect (UTE). Serial postprocedure endoscopy was performed in all subjects to assess subsequent evolution of UTE. Endoscopy during histotripsy was feasible with observation of intraurethral cavitation, allowing characterization of the real-time progression of UTE from normal to frank urethral disintegration. While acute urethral fragmentation occurred in 3/35 (8.6%) treatments, frank urethral disintegration developed in 24/35 (68.5%) within 14 days of treatment. Treating until the appearance of hemostatic pale gray shaggy urothelium was the best predictor of achieving urethral fragmentation within 14 days of treatment with positive and negative predictive values of 0.91 and 0.89, respectively. Endoscopic assessment of the urethra may be a useful adjunct to prostatic histotripsy to help guide therapy to ensure urethral disintegration, allowing drainage of the homogenized adenoma and effective tissue debulking.

  11. Towards understanding and predicting suicidality in women: biomarkers and clinical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levey, D F; Niculescu, E M; Le-Niculescu, H; Dainton, H L; Phalen, P L; Ladd, T B; Weber, H; Belanger, E; Graham, D L; Khan, F N; Vanipenta, N P; Stage, E C; Ballew, A; Yard, M; Gelbart, T; Shekhar, A; Schork, N J; Kurian, S M; Sandusky, G E; Salomon, D R; Niculescu, A B

    2016-06-01

    Women are under-represented in research on suicidality to date. Although women have a lower rate of suicide completion than men, due in part to the less-violent methods used, they have a higher rate of suicide attempts. Our group has previously identified genomic (blood gene expression biomarkers) and clinical information (apps) predictors for suicidality in men. We now describe pilot studies in women. We used a powerful within-participant discovery approach to identify genes that change in expression between no suicidal ideation (no SI) and high suicidal ideation (high SI) states (n=12 participants out of a cohort of 51 women psychiatric participants followed longitudinally, with diagnoses of bipolar disorder, depression, schizoaffective disorder and schizophrenia). We then used a Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to prioritize the candidate biomarkers identified in the discovery step by using all the prior evidence in the field. Next, we validated for suicidal behavior the top-ranked biomarkers for SI, in a demographically matched cohort of women suicide completers from the coroner's office (n=6), by assessing which markers were stepwise changed from no SI to high SI to suicide completers. We then tested the 50 biomarkers that survived Bonferroni correction in the validation step, as well as top increased and decreased biomarkers from the discovery and prioritization steps, in a completely independent test cohort of women psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of SI (n=33) and in a future follow-up cohort of psychiatric disorder participants for prediction of psychiatric hospitalizations due to suicidality (n=24). Additionally, we examined how two clinical instruments in the form of apps, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality (CFI-S) and Simplified Affective State Scale (SASS), previously tested in men, perform in women. The top CFI-S item distinguishing high SI from no SI states was the chronic stress of social isolation. We

  12. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  13. Earthquake Prediction Research In Iceland, Applications For Hazard Assessments and Warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefansson, R.

    Earthquake prediction research in Iceland, applications for hazard assessments and warnings. The first multinational earthquake prediction research project in Iceland was the Eu- ropean Council encouraged SIL project of the Nordic countries, 1988-1995. The path selected for this research was to study the physics of crustal processes leading to earth- quakes. It was considered that small earthquakes, down to magnitude zero, were the most significant for this purpose, because of the detailed information which they pro- vide both in time and space. The test area for the project was the earthquake prone region of the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ). The PRENLAB and PRENLAB-2 projects, 1996-2000 supported by the European Union were a direct continuation of the SIL project, but with a more multidisciplinary approach. PRENLAB stands for "Earthquake prediction research in a natural labo- ratory". The basic objective was to advance our understanding in general on where, when and how dangerous NH10earthquake motion might strike. Methods were devel- oped to study crustal processes and conditions, by microearthquake information, by continuous GPS, InSAR, theoretical modelling, fault mapping and paleoseismology. New algorithms were developed for short term warnings. A very useful short term warning was issued twice in the year 2000, one for a sudden start of an eruption in Volcano Hekla February 26, and the other 25 hours before a second (in a sequence of two) magnitude 6.6 (Ms) earthquake in the South Iceland seismic zone in June 21, with the correct location and approximate size. A formal short term warning, although not going to the public, was also issued before a magnitude 5 earthquake in November 1998. In the presentation it will be shortly described what these warnings were based on. A general hazard assessmnets was presented in scientific journals 10-15 years ago assessing within a few kilometers the location of the faults of the two 2000 earthquakes and suggesting

  14. A predictive approach to fitness-for-service assessment of pitting corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shekari, Elahe; Khan, Faisal; Ahmed, Salim

    2016-01-01

    Pitting corrosion is a localized corrosion that often causes leak and failure of process components. The aim of this work is to present a new fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment methodology for process equipment to track and predict pitting corrosion. In this methodology, pit density is modeled using a non-homogenous Poisson process and induction time for pit initiation is simulated as the realization of a Weibull process. The non-homogenous Markov process is used to estimate maximum pit depth, considering that only the current state of the damage influences its future development. Subsequently, the distributions of the operating pressure and the estimated burst pressure of the defected component are integrated with Monte Carlo simulations and First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method to calculate the reliability index and probability of failure. This methodology provides a more realistic failure assessment and enables consideration of uncertainty associated with estimating pit characteristics. The practical application of the proposed model is demonstrated using a piping case study. - Highlights: • A new model to estimate maximum pit depth and pit density as two main pit characteristics. • Integrating maximum pit depth with failure analysis considering allowable pressure of defected component. • Time dependent failure analysis to determine the remaining life.

  15. Reward sensitivity predicts ice cream-related attentional bias assessed by inattentional blindness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoming; Tao, Qian; Fang, Ya; Cheng, Chen; Hao, Yangyang; Qi, Jianjun; Li, Yu; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Xiaochu

    2015-06-01

    The cognitive mechanism underlying the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving is unknown. The present study explored the mechanism by examining the role of reward sensitivity in attentional bias toward ice cream cues. Forty-nine college students who displayed high level of ice cream craving (HICs) and 46 who displayed low level of ice cream craving (LICs) performed an inattentional blindness (IB) task which was used to assess attentional bias for ice cream. In addition, reward sensitivity and coping style were assessed by the Behavior Inhibition System/Behavior Activation System Scales and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Results showed significant higher identification rate of the critical stimulus in the HICs than LICs, suggesting greater attentional bias for ice cream in the HICs. It was indicated that attentional bias for food cues persisted even under inattentional condition. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the attentional bias and reward sensitivity after controlling for coping style, and reward sensitivity predicted attentional bias for food cues. The mediation analyses showed that attentional bias mediated the relationship between reward sensitivity and food craving. Those findings suggest that the association between individual differences in reward sensitivity and food craving may be attributed to attentional bias for food-related cues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Concentrations, input prediction and probabilistic biological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) along Gujarat coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosai, Haren B; Sachaniya, Bhumi K; Dudhagara, Dushyant R; Rajpara, Rahul K; Dave, Bharti P

    2018-04-01

    A comprehensive investigation was conducted in order to assess the levels of PAHs, their input prediction and potential risks to bacterial abundance and human health along Gujarat coastline. A total of 40 sediment samples were collected at quarterly intervals within a year from two contaminated sites-Alang-Sosiya Shipbreaking Yard (ASSBRY) and Navlakhi Port (NAV), situated at Gulf of Khambhat and Gulf of Kutch, respectively. The concentration of ΣPAHs ranged from 408.00 to 54240.45 ng g -1  dw, indicating heavy pollution of PAHs at both the contaminated sites. Furthermore, isomeric ratios and principal component analysis have revealed that inputs of PAHs at both contaminated sites were mixed-pyrogenic and petrogenic. Pearson co-relation test and regression analysis have disclosed Nap, Acel and Phe as major predictors for bacterial abundance at both contaminated sites. Significantly, cancer risk assessment of the PAHs has been exercised based on incremental lifetime cancer risks. Overall, index of cancer risk of PAHs for ASSBRY and NAV ranged from 4.11 × 10 -6 -2.11 × 10 -5 and 9.08 × 10 -6 -4.50 × 10 -3 indicating higher cancer risk at NAV compared to ASSBRY. The present findings provide baseline information that may help in developing advanced bioremediation and bioleaching strategies to minimize biological risk.

  17. Comparison of COPD Assessment Test and Clinical COPD Questionnaire to predict the risk of exacerbation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo YS

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Yong Suk Jo,1 Ho Il Yoon,2 Deog Kyeom Kim,3 Chul-Gyu Yoo,1 Chang-Hoon Lee1 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, 2Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Gyeonggi, 3Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government-Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea Background and objective: Guidelines recommend the use of simple but comprehensive tools such as COPD Assessment Test (CAT and Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ to assess health status in COPD patients. We aimed to compare the ability of CAT and CCQ to predict exacerbation in COPD patients. Methods: We organized a multicenter prospective cohort study that included COPD patients. The relationships between CAT, CCQ, and other clinical measurements were analyzed by correlation analysis, and the impact of CAT and CCQ scores on exacerbation was analyzed by logistic regression analyses and receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Among 121 COPD patients, CAT and CCQ score correlated with other symptom measures, lung function and exercise capacity as well. Compared with patients who did not experience exacerbation, those who experienced exacerbation (n=45; 38.2% exhibited more severe airflow limitation, were more likely to have a history of exacerbation in the year prior to enrollment, and demonstrated higher CAT scores. CCQ scores were not significantly associated with exacerbations. A CAT score of ≥15 was an independent risk factor for exacerbation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.40; 95% CI, 1.03–6.50; P=0.04. Furthermore, CAT scores of ≥15 demonstrated an increased predictive ability for exacerbation compared with currently accepted guidelines for the use of CAT (≥10 and CCQ (≥1 in the assessment of COPD

  18. Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Sung Kean; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Joon Yul; Lee, Wan Hyung; Oh, Ein; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2013-11-01

    A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

  19. How does image noise affect actual and predicted human gaze allocation in assessing image quality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röhrbein, Florian; Goddard, Peter; Schneider, Michael; James, Georgina; Guo, Kun

    2015-07-01

    A central research question in natural vision is how to allocate fixation to extract informative cues for scene perception. With high quality images, psychological and computational studies have made significant progress to understand and predict human gaze allocation in scene exploration. However, it is unclear whether these findings can be generalised to degraded naturalistic visual inputs. In this eye-tracking and computational study, we methodically distorted both man-made and natural scenes with Gaussian low-pass filter, circular averaging filter and Additive Gaussian white noise, and monitored participants' gaze behaviour in assessing perceived image qualities. Compared with original high quality images, distorted images attracted fewer numbers of fixations but longer fixation durations, shorter saccade distance and stronger central fixation bias. This impact of image noise manipulation on gaze distribution was mainly determined by noise intensity rather than noise type, and was more pronounced for natural scenes than for man-made scenes. We furthered compared four high performing visual attention models in predicting human gaze allocation in degraded scenes, and found that model performance lacked human-like sensitivity to noise type and intensity, and was considerably worse than human performance measured as inter-observer variance. Furthermore, the central fixation bias is a major predictor for human gaze allocation, which becomes more prominent with increased noise intensity. Our results indicate a crucial role of external noise intensity in determining scene-viewing gaze behaviour, which should be considered in the development of realistic human-vision-inspired attention models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of critical illness in elderly outpatients using elder risk assessment: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biehl M

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Michelle Biehl,1 Paul Y Takahashi,2 Stephen S Cha,3 Rajeev Chaudhry,2 Ognjen Gajic,1 Bjorg Thorsteinsdottir2 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, 2Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, 3Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Rationale: Identifying patients at high risk of critical illness is necessary for the development and testing of strategies to prevent critical illness. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between high elder risk assessment (ERA score and critical illness requiring intensive care and to see if the ERA can be used as a prediction tool to identify elderly patients at the primary care visit who are at high risk of critical illness. Methods: A population-based historical cohort study was conducted in elderly patients (age >65 years identified at the time of primary care visit in Rochester, MN, USA. Predictors including age, previous hospital days, and comorbid health conditions were identified from routine administrative data available in the electronic medical record. The main outcome was critical illness, defined as sepsis, need for mechanical ventilation, or death within 2 years of initial visit. Patients with an ERA score of 16 were considered to be at high risk. The discrimination of the ERA score was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Of the 13,457 eligible patients, 9,872 gave consent for medical record review and had full information on intensive care unit utilization. The mean age was 75.8 years (standard deviation ±7.6 years, and 58% were female, 94% were Caucasian, 62% were married, and 13% were living in nursing homes. In the overall group, 417 patients (4.2% suffered from critical illness. In the 1,134 patients with ERA >16, 154 (14% suffered from critical illness. An ERA score ≥16 predicted critical illness (odds ratio 6.35; 95% confidence interval 3.51–11.48. The area under the

  1. A Prediction Model to Help with the Assessment of Adenopathy in Lung Cancer: HAL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Oisin J; Almeida, Francisco A; Simoff, Michael J; Yarmus, Lonny; Lazarus, Ray; Young, Benjamin; Chen, Yu; Semaan, Roy; Saettele, Timothy M; Cicenia, Joseph; Bedi, Harmeet; Kliment, Corrine; Li, Liang; Sethi, Sonali; Diaz-Mendoza, Javier; Feller-Kopman, David; Song, Juhee; Gildea, Thomas; Lee, Hans; Grosu, Horiana B; Machuzak, Michael; Rodriguez-Vial, Macarena; Eapen, George A; Jimenez, Carlos A; Casal, Roberto F; Ost, David E

    2017-06-15

    Estimating the probability of finding N2 or N3 (prN2/3) malignant nodal disease on endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (EBUS-TBNA) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can facilitate the selection of subsequent management strategies. To develop a clinical prediction model for estimating the prN2/3. We used the AQuIRE (American College of Chest Physicians Quality Improvement Registry, Evaluation, and Education) registry to identify patients with NSCLC with clinical radiographic stage T1-3, N0-3, M0 disease that had EBUS-TBNA for staging. The dependent variable was the presence of N2 or N3 disease (vs. N0 or N1) as assessed by EBUS-TBNA. Univariate followed by multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a parsimonious clinical prediction model to estimate prN2/3. External validation was performed using data from three other hospitals. The model derivation cohort (n = 633) had a 25% prevalence of malignant N2 or N3 disease. Younger age, central location, adenocarcinoma histology, and higher positron emission tomography-computed tomography N stage were associated with a higher prN2/3. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.89), model fit was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.62; Brier score, 0.125). We externally validated the model in 722 patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.90). Calibration using the general calibration model method resulted in acceptable goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.54; Brier score, 0.132). Our prediction rule can be used to estimate prN2/3 in patients with NSCLC. The model has the potential to facilitate clinical decision making in the staging of NSCLC.

  2. An Unobtrusive System to Measure, Assess, and Predict Cognitive Workload in Real-World Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracken, Bethany K.; Palmon, Noa; Elkin-Frankston, Seth; Irvin, Scott; Jenkins, Michael; Farry, Mike

    2017-01-01

    Across many careers, individuals face alternating periods of high and low attention and cognitive workload, which can result in impaired cognitive functioning and can be detrimental to job performance. For example, some professions (e.g., fire fighters, emergency medical personnel, doctors and nurses working in an emergency room, pilots) require long periods of low workload (boredom), followed by sudden, high-tempo operations during which they may be required to respond to an emergency and perform at peak cognitive levels. Conversely, other professions (e.g., air traffic controllers, market investors in financial industries, analysts) require long periods of high workload and multitasking during which the addition of just one more task results in cognitive overload resulting in mistakes. An unobtrusive system to measure, assess, and predict cognitive workload could warn individuals, their teammates, or their supervisors when steps should be taken to augment cognitive readiness. In this talk I will describe an approach to this problem that we have found to be successful across work domains including: (1) a suite of unobtrusive, field-ready neurophysiological, physiological, and behavioral sensors that are chosen to best suit the target environment; (2) custom algorithms and statistical techniques to process and time-align raw data originating from the sensor suite; (3) probabilistic and statistical models designed to interpret the data into the human state of interest (e.g., cognitive workload, attention, fatigue); (4) and machine-learning techniques to predict upcoming performance based on the current pattern of events, and (5) display of each piece of information depending on the needs of the target user who may or may not want to drill down into the functioning of the system to determine how conclusions about human state and performance are determined. I will then focus in on our experimental results from our custom functional near-infrared spectroscopy sensor

  3. Prediction of recidivism in extrafamilial child molesters based on court-related assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firestone, P; Bradford, J M; McCoy, M; Greenberg, D M; Curry, S; Larose, M R

    2000-07-01

    categories precluded an attempt to determine which combination of factors meaningfully predicted reoffending. However, for criminal recidivism, a stepwise discriminant function analysis to assess the combination of factors that most successfully distinguished between groups in terms of criminal recidivism was significant, with subjects' age, total number of criminal convictions, and pedophile assault index being retained for optimal prediction. The procedure correctly classified 70.6% of the original group, 82.8% of the nonrecidivists, and 52.6% of the recidivists. PCL-R Total Score alone was equally successful in a similar discriminant function.

  4. Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO) complementing the critical assessment of structure prediction in CASP12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Jürgen; Barbato, Alessandro; Behringer, Dario; Studer, Gabriel; Roth, Steven; Bertoni, Martino; Mostaguir, Khaled; Gumienny, Rafal; Schwede, Torsten

    2018-03-01

    Every second year, the community experiment "Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction" (CASP) is conducting an independent blind assessment of structure prediction methods, providing a framework for comparing the performance of different approaches and discussing the latest developments in the field. Yet, developers of automated computational modeling methods clearly benefit from more frequent evaluations based on larger sets of data. The "Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)" platform complements the CASP experiment by conducting fully automated blind prediction assessments based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the PDB Protein Data Bank. CAMEO publishes weekly benchmarking results based on models collected during a 4-day prediction window, on average assessing ca. 100 targets during a time frame of 5 weeks. CAMEO benchmarking data is generated consistently for all participating methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to benchmark and cross-validate their method's performance, and directly refer to the benchmarking results in publications. In order to facilitate server development and promote shorter release cycles, CAMEO sends weekly email with submission statistics and low performance warnings. Many participants of CASP have successfully employed CAMEO when preparing their methods for upcoming community experiments. CAMEO offers a variety of scores to allow benchmarking diverse aspects of structure prediction methods. By introducing new scoring schemes, CAMEO facilitates new development in areas of active research, for example, modeling quaternary structure, complexes, or ligand binding sites. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Cardiac Risk Assessment, Morbidity Prediction, and Outcome in the Vascular Intensive Care Unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dover, Mary

    2013-09-17

    Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine the predictive value of the Lee revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) for a standard vascular intensive care unit (ICU) population as well as assessing the utility of transthoracic echocardiography and the impact of prior coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary revascularization on patient outcome. Design: This is a retrospective review of prospectively maintained Vascubase and prospectively collected ICU data. Materials and Methods: Data from 363 consecutive vascular ICU admissions were collected. Findings were used to calculate the RCRI, which was then correlated with patient outcomes. All patients were on optimal medical therapy (OMT) in the form of cardioselective β-blocker, aspirin, statin, and folic acid. Results: There was no relationship found between a reduced ejection fraction and patient outcome. Mortality was significantly increased for patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as identified on echo (14.9% vs 6.5%, P = .028). The overall complication rates were significantly elevated for patients with valvular dysfunction. Discrimination for the RCRI on receiver-operating characteristic analysis was poor, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of .621. Model calibration was reasonable with an Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ statistic of 2.726 (P = .256). Of those with known CAD, 41.22% of the patients receiving best medical treatment developed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared to 35.3% of those who previously underwent percutaneous cardiac intervention and 23.5% of those who had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting. There was 3-fold increase in major adverse clinical events in patients with troponin rise and LVH. Conclusions: The RCRI\\'s discriminatory capacity is low, and this raises difficulties in assessing cardiac risk in patients undergoing vascular intervention. The AMI is highest in the OMT group without prior cardiac intervention, which mandates protocols to

  6. Dynamic reliability assessment and prediction for repairable systems with interval-censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Yizhen; Wang, Yu; Zi, YanYang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung; Zhang, Chuhua

    2017-01-01

    The ‘Test, Analyze and Fix’ process is widely applied to improve the reliability of a repairable system. In this process, dynamic reliability assessment for the system has been paid a great deal of attention. Due to instrument malfunctions, staff omissions and imperfect inspection strategies, field reliability data are often subject to interval censoring, making dynamic reliability assessment become a difficult task. Most traditional methods assume this kind of data as multiple normal distributed variables or the missing mechanism as missing at random, which may cause a large bias in parameter estimation. This paper proposes a novel method to evaluate and predict the dynamic reliability of a repairable system subject to interval-censored problem. First, a multiple imputation strategy based on the assumption that the reliability growth trend follows a nonhomogeneous Poisson process is developed to derive the distributions of missing data. Second, a new order statistic model that can transfer the dependent variables into independent variables is developed to simplify the imputation procedure. The unknown parameters of the model are iteratively inferred by the Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation and a real case study for gas pipeline compressor system are implemented. - Highlights: • A new multiple imputation strategy was developed to derive the PDF of missing data. • A new order statistic model was developed to simplify the imputation procedure. • The parameters of the order statistic model were iteratively inferred by MCEM. • A real cases study was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Assessment of NASA and RAE viscous-inviscid interaction methods for predicting transonic flow over nozzle afterbodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, L. E.; Hodges, J.

    1983-01-01

    The Langley Research Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Royal Aircraft Establishment have undertaken a cooperative program to conduct an assessment of their patched viscous-inviscid interaction methods for predicting the transonic flow over nozzle afterbodies. The assessment was made by comparing the predictions of the two methods with experimental pressure distributions and boattail pressure drag for several convergent circular-arc nozzle configurations. Comparisons of the predictions of the two methods with the experimental data showed that both methods provided good predictions of the flow characteristics of nozzles with attached boundary layer flow. The RAE method also provided reasonable predictions of the pressure distributions and drag for the nozzles investigated that had separated boundary layers. The NASA method provided good predictions of the pressure distribution on separated flow nozzles that had relatively thin boundary layers. However, the NASA method was in poor agreement with experiment for separated nozzles with thick boundary layers due primarily to deficiencies in the method used to predict the separation location.

  8. Optical Spectroscopy Approach for the Predictive Assessment of Kidney Functional Recovery Following Ischemic Injury

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raman, R N; Pivetti, C D; Rubenchik, A M; Matthews, D L; Troppmann, C; Demos, S G

    2010-02-11

    Tissue that has undergone significant yet unknown amount of ischemic injury is frequently encountered in organ transplantation and trauma clinics. With no reliable real-time method of assessing the degree of injury incurred in tissue, surgeons generally rely on visual observation which is subjective. In this work, we investigate the use of optical spectroscopy methods as a potentially more reliable approach. Previous work by various groups was strongly suggestive that tissue autofluorescence from NADH obtained under UV excitation is sensitive to metabolic response changes. To test and expand upon this concept, we monitored autofluorescence and light scattering intensities of injured vs. uninjured rat kidneys via multimodal imaging under 355 nm, 325 nm, and 266 nm excitation as well as scattering under 500 nm illumination. 355 nm excitation was used to probe mainly NADH, a metabolite, while 266 nm excitation was used to probe mainly tryptophan to correct for non-metabolic signal artifacts. The ratio of autofluorescence intensities derived under these two excitation wavelengths was calculated and its temporal profile was fit to a relaxation model. Time constants were extracted, and longer time constants were associated with kidney dysfunction. Analysis of both the autofluorescence and light scattering images suggests that changes in microstructure tissue morphology, blood absorption spectral characteristics, and pH contribute to the behavior of the observed signal which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer predictive capability.

  9. Prognostic, predictive and pharmacogenomic assessments of CDX2 refine stratification of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruun, Jarle; Sveen, Anita; Barros, Rita; Eide, Peter W; Eilertsen, Ina; Kolberg, Matthias; Pellinen, Teijo; David, Leonor; Svindland, Aud; Kallioniemi, Olli; Guren, Marianne G; Nesbakken, Arild; Almeida, Raquel; Lothe, Ragnhild A

    2018-06-14

    We aimed to refine the value of CDX2 as an independent prognostic and predictive biomarker in colorectal cancer (CRC) according to disease stage and chemotherapy sensitivity in preclinical models. CDX2 expression was evaluated in 1045 stage I-IV primary CRCs by gene expression (n=403) or immunohistochemistry (n=642) and in relation to 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and chemotherapy. Pharmacogenomic associations between CDX2 expression and 69 chemotherapeutics were assessed by drug screening of 35 CRC cell lines. CDX2 expression was lost in 11.6% of cases and showed independent poor prognostic value in multivariable models. For individual stages, CDX2 was prognostic only in stage IV, independent of chemotherapy. Among stage I-III patients not treated in an adjuvant setting, CDX2 loss was associated with a particularly poor survival in the BRAF-mutated subgroup, but prognostic value was independent of microsatellite instability status and the consensus molecular subtypes In stage III, the 5-year RFS rate was higher among patients with loss of CDX2 who received adjuvant chemotherapy than among patients who did not. The CDX2-negative cell lines were significantly more sensitive to chemotherapeutics than CDX2-positive cells, and the multidrug resistance genes MDR1 and CFTR were significantly downregulated both in CDX2-negative cells and patient tumors. Molecular Oncology (2018) © 2018 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Remote sensing and GIS-based prediction and assessment of copper-gold resources in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Shasha; Wang, Gongwen; Du, Wenhui; Huang, Luxiong

    2014-01-01

    Quantitative integration of geological information is a frontier and hotspot of prospecting decision research in the world. The forming process of large scale Cu-Au deposits is influenced by complicated geological events and restricted by various geological factors (stratum, structure and alteration). In this paper, using Thailand's copper-gold deposit district as a case study, geological anomaly theory is used along with the typical copper and gold metallogenic model, ETM+ remote sensing images, geological maps and mineral geology database in study area are combined with GIS technique. These techniques create ore-forming information such as geological information (strata, line-ring faults, intrusion), remote sensing information (hydroxyl alteration, iron alteration, linear-ring structure) and the Cu-Au prospect targets. These targets were identified using weights of evidence model. The research results show that the remote sensing and geological data can be combined to quickly predict and assess for exploration of mineral resources in a regional metallogenic belt

  11. A code MOGRA for predicting and assessing the migration of ground additions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Hikaru; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Uchida, Shigeo; Matsuoka, Syungo; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Hayashi, Hiroko; Kurosawa, Naohiro

    2004-01-01

    The environment should be protected from the toxic effects of not only ionizing radiation but also any other environmental load materials. A Code MOGRA (Migration Of GRound Additions) is a migration prediction code for toxic ground additions including radioactive materials in a terrestrial environment, which consists of computational codes that are applicable to various evaluation target systems, and can be used on personal computers for not only the purpose of the migration analysis but also the environmental assessment to livings of the environmental load materials. The functionality of MOGRA has been verified by applying it in the analyses of the migration rates of radioactive substances from the atmosphere to soils and plants and flow rates into the rivers. Migration of radionuclides in combinations of hypothetical various land utilization areas was also verified. The system can analyze the dynamic changes of target radionuclide's concentrations in each compartment, fluxes from one compartment to another compartment. The code MOGRA has varieties of databases, which is included in an additional code MOGRA-DB. This additional code MOGRA-DB consists of radionuclides decay chart, distribution coefficients between solid and liquid, transfer factors from soil to plant, transfer coefficients from feed to beef and milk, concentration factors, and age dependent dose conversion factors for many radionuclides. Another additional code MOGRA-MAP can take in graphic map such as JPEG, TIFF, BITMAP, and GIF files, and calculate the square measure of the target land. (author)

  12. STOPGAP: a database for systematic target opportunity assessment by genetic association predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Judong; Song, Kijoung; Slater, Andrew J; Ferrero, Enrico; Nelson, Matthew R

    2017-09-01

    We developed the STOPGAP (Systematic Target OPportunity assessment by Genetic Association Predictions) database, an extensive catalog of human genetic associations mapped to effector gene candidates. STOPGAP draws on a variety of publicly available GWAS associations, linkage disequilibrium (LD) measures, functional genomic and variant annotation sources. Algorithms were developed to merge the association data, partition associations into non-overlapping LD clusters, map variants to genes and produce a variant-to-gene score used to rank the relative confidence among potential effector genes. This database can be used for a multitude of investigations into the genes and genetic mechanisms underlying inter-individual variation in human traits, as well as supporting drug discovery applications. Shell, R, Perl and Python scripts and STOPGAP R data files (version 2.5.1 at publication) are available at https://github.com/StatGenPRD/STOPGAP . Some of the most useful STOPGAP fields can be queried through an R Shiny web application at http://stopgapwebapp.com . matthew.r.nelson@gsk.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  13. Predictive validity of the post-enrolment English language assessment tool for commencing undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glew, Paul J; Hillege, Sharon P; Salamonson, Yenna; Dixon, Kathleen; Good, Anthony; Lombardo, Lien

    2015-12-01

    Nursing students with English as an additional language (EAL) may underperform academically. The post-enrolment English language assessment (PELA) is used in literacy support, but its predictive validity in identifying those at risk of underperformance remains unknown. To validate a PELA, as a predictor of academic performance. Prospective survey design. The study was conducted at a university located in culturally and linguistically diverse areas of western Sydney, Australia. Commencing undergraduate nursing students who were Australian-born (n=1323, 49.6%) and born outside of Australia (n=1346, 50.4%) were recruited for this study. The 2669 (67% of 3957) participants provided consent and completed a first year nursing unit that focussed on developing literacy skills. Between 2010 and 2013, commencing students completed the PELA and English language acculturation scale (ELAS), a previously validated instrument. The grading levels of the PELA tool were: Level 1 (proficient), Level 2 (borderline), and Level 3 (poor, and requiring additional support). Participants with a PELA Level 2 or 3 were more likely to be: a) non-Australian-born (χ(2): 520.6, df: 2, pstudent (χ(2): 225.6, df: 2, pstudents who are at risk of academic underachievement. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Optical spectroscopy approach for the predictive assessment of kidney functional recovery following ischemic injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Rajesh N.; Pivetti, Christopher D.; Rubenchik, Alexander M.; Matthews, Dennis L.; Troppmann, Christoph; Demos, Stavros G.

    2010-02-01

    Tissue that has undergone significant yet unknown amount of ischemic injury is frequently encountered in organ transplantation and trauma clinics. With no reliable real-time method of assessing the degree of injury incurred in tissue, surgeons generally rely on visual observation which is subjective. In this work, we investigate the use of optical spectroscopy methods as a potentially more reliable approach. Previous work by various groups was strongly suggestive that tissue autofluorescence from NADH obtained under UV excitation is sensitive to metabolic response changes. To test and expand upon this concept, we monitored autofluorescence and light scattering intensities of injured vs. uninjured rat kidneys via multimodal imaging under 355 nm, 325 nm, and 266 nm excitation as well as scattering under 500 nm illumination. 355 nm excitation was used to probe mainly NADH, a metabolite, while 266 nm excitation was used to probe mainly tryptophan to correct for non-metabolic signal artifacts. The ratio of autofluorescence intensities derived under these two excitation wavelengths was calculated and its temporal profile was fit to a relaxation model. Time constants were extracted, and longer time constants were associated with kidney dysfunction. Analysis of both the autofluorescence and light scattering images suggests that changes in microstructure tissue morphology, blood absorption spectral characteristics, and pH contribute to the behavior of the observed signal which may be used to obtain tissue functional information and offer predictive capability.

  15. Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sim, Sarah; Hamel, Perrine; Bryant, Benjamin; Noe, Ryan; Mueller, Carina; Rigarlsford, Giles; Kulak, Michal; Kowal, Virginia; Sharp, Richard; Clavreul, Julie; Price, Edward; Polasky, Stephen; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Daily, Gretchen

    2017-01-01

    International corporations in an increasingly globalized economy exert a major influence on the planet's land use and resources through their product design and material sourcing decisions. Many companies use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate their sustainability, yet commonly-used LCA methodologies lack the spatial resolution and predictive ecological information to reveal key impacts on climate, water and biodiversity. We present advances for LCA that integrate spatially explicit modelling of land change and ecosystem services in a Land-Use Change Improved (LUCI)-LCA. Comparing increased demand for bioplastics derived from two alternative feedstock-location scenarios for maize and sugarcane, we find that the LUCI-LCA approach yields results opposite to those of standard LCA for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption, and of different magnitudes for soil erosion and biodiversity. This approach highlights the importance of including information about where and how land-use change and related impacts will occur in supply chain and innovation decisions. PMID:28429710

  16. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijdenes-Pijl, Miranda; Dondorp, Wybo J; Timmermans, Danielle Rm; Cornel, Martina C; Henneman, Lidewij

    2011-07-05

    This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3) and without (n = 1) a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2), and diabetes patients (n = 2). All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment (DNA test or obtaining family history) and also differ from

  17. Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornel Martina C

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Methods Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3 and without (n = 1 a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2, and diabetes patients (n = 2. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Results Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. Conclusion The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment

  18. Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice predictability in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-Y. Yang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multi-model spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3–7 years, but there is a re-emerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6–8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

  19. A Rat α-Fetoprotein Binding Activity Prediction Model to Facilitate Assessment of the Endocrine Disruption Potential of Environmental Chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Huixiao; Shen, Jie; Ng, Hui Wen; Sakkiah, Sugunadevi; Ye, Hao; Ge, Weigong; Gong, Ping; Xiao, Wenming; Tong, Weida

    2016-03-25

    Endocrine disruptors such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), diethylstilbestrol (DES) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) are agents that interfere with the endocrine system and cause adverse health effects. Huge public health concern about endocrine disruptors has arisen. One of the mechanisms of endocrine disruption is through binding of endocrine disruptors with the hormone receptors in the target cells. Entrance of endocrine disruptors into target cells is the precondition of endocrine disruption. The binding capability of a chemical with proteins in the blood affects its entrance into the target cells and, thus, is very informative for the assessment of potential endocrine disruption of chemicals. α-fetoprotein is one of the major serum proteins that binds to a variety of chemicals such as estrogens. To better facilitate assessment of endocrine disruption of environmental chemicals, we developed a model for α-fetoprotein binding activity prediction using the novel pattern recognition method (Decision Forest) and the molecular descriptors calculated from two-dimensional structures by Mold² software. The predictive capability of the model has been evaluated through internal validation using 125 training chemicals (average balanced accuracy of 69%) and external validations using 22 chemicals (balanced accuracy of 71%). Prediction confidence analysis revealed the model performed much better at high prediction confidence. Our results indicate that the model is useful (when predictions are in high confidence) in endocrine disruption risk assessment of environmental chemicals though improvement by increasing number of training chemicals is needed.

  20. Clinical Prediction Model and Tool for Assessing Risk of Persistent Pain After Breast Cancer Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meretoja, Tuomo J; Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Bruce, Julie

    2017-01-01

    are missing. The aim was to develop a clinically applicable risk prediction tool. Methods The prediction models were developed and tested using three prospective data sets from Finland (n = 860), Denmark (n = 453), and Scotland (n = 231). Prediction models for persistent pain of moderate to severe intensity......), high body mass index ( P = .039), axillary lymph node dissection ( P = .008), and more severe acute postoperative pain intensity at the seventh postoperative day ( P = .003) predicted persistent pain in the final prediction model, which performed well in the Danish (ROC-AUC, 0.739) and Scottish (ROC......-AUC, 0.740) cohorts. At the 20% risk level, the model had 32.8% and 47.4% sensitivity and 94.4% and 82.4% specificity in the Danish and Scottish cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Our validated prediction models and an online risk calculator provide clinicians and researchers with a simple tool to screen...

  1. A Multimethod Assessment of Juvenile Psychopathy: Comparing the Predictive Utility of the PCL:YV, YPI, and NEO PRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauffman, Elizabeth; Kimonis, Eva R.; Dmitrieva, Julia; Monahan, Kathryn C.

    2009-01-01

    The current study compares 3 distinct approaches for measuring juvenile psychopathy and their utility for predicting short- and long-term recidivism among a sample of 1,170 serious male juvenile offenders. The assessment approaches compared a clinical interview method (the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Forth, Kosson, & Hare,…

  2. Memory assessment in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy to predict memory impairment after surgery: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra-Díaz, P; García-Casares, N

    2017-04-19

    Given that surgical treatment of refractory mesial temporal lobe epilepsy may cause memory impairment, determining which patients are eligible for surgery is essential. However, there is little agreement on which presurgical memory assessment methods are best able to predict memory outcome after surgery and identify those patients with a greater risk of surgery-induced memory decline. We conducted a systematic literature review to determine which presurgical memory assessment methods best predict memory outcome. The literature search of PubMed gathered articles published between January 2005 and December 2015 addressing pre- and postsurgical memory assessment in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy patients by means of neuropsychological testing, functional MRI, and other neuroimaging techniques. We obtained 178 articles, 31 of which were included in our review. Most of the studies used neuropsychological tests and fMRI; these methods are considered to have the greatest predictive ability for memory impairment. Other less frequently used techniques included the Wada test and FDG-PET. Current evidence supports performing a presurgical assessment of memory function using both neuropsychological tests and functional MRI to predict memory outcome after surgery. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. The predictive value of measures of social cognition for community functioning in schizophrenia : Implications for neuropsychological assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pijnenborg, G.H M; Withaar, F.K.; Evans, J.J; van den Bosch, R.J.; Timmerman, M.E.; Brouwer, W.H.

    The objective of this study was to examine the unique contribution of social cognition to the prediction of community functioning and to explore the relevance of social cognition for clinical practice. Forty-six schizophrenia patients and 53 healthy controls were assessed with tests of social

  4. Prediction of the long term accumulation and leaching of copper in Dutch agricultural soils: a risk assessment study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenenberg, J.E.; Römkens, P.F.A.M.; Vries, de W.

    2006-01-01

    This report describes a model study to assess whether current copper inputs on agricultural land lead to accumulation of copper and in time to an exceedance of a Predicted No Effect Concentration. A copper mass balance model was applied to the whole Netherlands. Future copper concentrations after

  5. Wind Resource Assessment in Complex Terrain with a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Karin; Serafin, Stefano; Grubišić, Vanda; Dorninger, Manfred; Zauner, Rudolf; Fink, Martin

    2014-05-01

    A crucial step in planning new wind farms is the estimation of the amount of wind energy that can be harvested in possible target sites. Wind resource assessment traditionally entails deployment of masts equipped for wind speed measurements at several heights for a reasonably long period of time. Simplified linear models of atmospheric flow are then used for a spatial extrapolation of point measurements to a wide area. While linear models have been successfully applied in the wind resource assessment in plains and offshore, their reliability in complex terrain is generally poor. This represents a major limitation to wind resource assessment in Austria, where high-altitude locations are being considered for new plant sites, given the higher frequency of sustained winds at such sites. The limitations of linear models stem from two key assumptions in their formulation, the neutral stratification and attached boundary-layer flow, both of which often break down in complex terrain. Consequently, an accurate modeling of near-surface flow over mountains requires the adoption of a NWP model with high horizontal and vertical resolution. This study explores the wind potential of a site in Styria in the North-Eastern Alps. The WRF model is used for simulations with a maximum horizontal resolution of 800 m. Three nested computational domains are defined, with the innermost one encompassing a stretch of the relatively broad Enns Valley, flanked by the main crest of the Alps in the south and the Nördliche Kalkalpen of similar height in the north. In addition to the simulation results, we use data from fourteen 10-m wind measurement sites (of which 7 are located within valleys and 5 near mountain tops) and from 2 masts with anemometers at several heights (at hillside locations) in an area of 1600 km2 around the target site. The potential for wind energy production is assessed using the mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at hub height. The capacity factor is also evaluated

  6. Accuracy assessment of the ERP prediction method based on analysis of 100-year ERP series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Z.; Tissen, V. M.

    2012-12-01

    A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole motion (PM). In this study, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions made in 2006-2011 and PMpredictions made in 2009-2011making use of the SNIIM method with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), USNO. Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.

  7. Calibrated Multi-Temporal Edge Images for City Infrastructure Growth Assessment and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Ruzouq, R.; Shanableh, A.; Boharoon, Z.; Khalil, M.

    2018-03-01

    Urban Growth or urbanization can be defined as the gradual process of city's population growth and infrastructure development. It is typically demonstrated by the expansion of a city's infrastructure, mainly development of its roads and buildings. Uncontrolled urban Growth in cities has been responsible for several problems that include living environment, drinking water, noise and air pollution, waste management, traffic congestion and hydraulic processes. Accurate identification of urban growth is of great importance for urban planning and water/land management. Recent advances in satellite imagery, in terms of improved spatial and temporal resolutions, allows for efficient identification of change patterns and the prediction of built-up areas. In this study, two approaches were adapted to quantify and assess the pattern of urbanization, in Ajman City at UAE, during the last three decades. The first approach relies on image processing techniques and multi-temporal Landsat satellite images with ground resolution varying between 15 to 60 meters. In this approach, the derived edge images (roads and buildings) were used as the basis of change detection. The second approach relies on digitizing features from high-resolution images captured at different years. The latest approach was adopted, as a reference and ground truth, to calibrate extracted edges from Landsat images. It has been found that urbanized area almost increased by 12 folds during the period 1975-2015 where the growth of buildings and roads were almost parallel until 2005 when the roads spatial expansion witnessed a steep increase due to the vertical expansion of the City. Extracted Edges features, were successfully used for change detection and quantification in term of buildings and roads.

  8. Mini Nutritional Assessment predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumieiro, David N; Rafacho, Bruna P M; Gonçalves, Andrea F; Tanni, Suzana E; Azevedo, Paula S; Sakane, Daniel T; Carneiro, Carlos A S; Gaspardo, David; Zornoff, Leonardo A M; Pereira, Gilberto J C; Paiva, Sergio A R; Minicucci, Marcos F

    2013-05-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score (ASA) as predictors of gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. A total of eighty-eight consecutive patients over the age of 65 years with hip fracture admitted to an orthopaedic unit were prospectively evaluated. Within the first 72 h of admission, each patient's characteristics were recorded, and the MNA, the NRS 2002 and the ASA were performed. Gait status and mortality were evaluated 6 months after hip fracture. Of the total patients, two were excluded because of pathological fractures. The remaining eighty-six patients (aged 80·2 (sd 7·3) years) were studied. Among these patients 76·7 % were female, 69·8 % walked with or without support and 12·8 % died 6 months after the fracture. In a multivariate analysis, only the MNA was associated with gait status 6 months after hip fracture (OR 0·773, 95 % CI 0·663, 0·901; P= 0·001). In the Cox regression model, only the MNA was associated with mortality 6 months after hip fracture (hazard ratio 0·869, 95 % CI 0·757, 0·998; P= 0·04). In conclusion, the MNA best predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. These results suggest that the MNA should be included in the clinical stratification of patients with hip fracture to identify and treat malnutrition in order to improve the outcomes.

  9. Moving the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability to a Distributed, Portable Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, RW

    2002-09-05

    The Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) has been re-engineered from a Windows application with tight binding between computation and a graphical user interface (GUI) to a new distributed object architecture. The key goals of this new architecture are platform portability, extensibility, deployment flexibility, client-server operations, easy integration with other systems, and support for a new map-based GUI. Selection of Java as the development and runtime environment is the major factor in achieving each of the goals, platform portability in particular. Portability is further enforced by allowing only Java components in the client. Extensibility is achieved via Java's dynamic binding and class loading capabilities and a design by interface approach. HPAC supports deployment on a standalone host, as a heavy client in client-server mode with data stored on the client but calculations performed on the server host, and as a thin client with data and calculations on the server host. The principle architectural element supporting deployment flexibility is the use of Universal Resource Locators (URLs) for all file references. Java WebStart{trademark} is used for thin client deployment. Although there were many choices for the object distribution mechanism, the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) was chosen to support HPAC client server operation. HPAC complies with version 2.0 of the CORBA standard and does not assume support for pass-by-value method arguments. Execution in standalone mode is expedited by having most server objects run in the same process as client objects, thereby bypassing CORBA object transport. HPAC provides four levels for access by other tools and systems, starting with a Windows library providing transport and dispersion (T&D) calculations and output generation, detailed and more abstract sets of CORBA services, and reusable Java components.

  10. Remaining life prediction of I and C cables for reliability assessment of NPP systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santhosh, T.V.; Ghosh, A.K.; Fernandes, B.G.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A framework for time dependent reliability prediction of I and C cables for use in PSA of NPP has been developed using stress–strength interference theory. ► The proposed methodology has been illustrated with the accelerated thermal aging data on a typical XLPE cable. ► The behavior of insulation resistance when the degradation process is linear or exponential has also been modeled. ► The reliability index or probability of failure obtained from this approach can be used in system reliability evaluation to account for cable aging for PSA of NPP. - Abstract: Instrumentation and control (I and C) cables are one of the most important components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) because they provide power to safety-related equipment and also to transmit signals to and from various controllers to perform safety operations. I and C cables in NPP are subjected to a variety of aging and degradation stressors that can produce immediate degradation or aging-related mechanisms causing the degradation of cable components over time. Although, there exits several life estimation techniques, currently there is no any standard methodology or an approach toward estimating the time dependent reliability of I and C cables that can be directly used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) applications. Hence, the objective of this study is to develop an approach to estimate and confirm the continued acceptable margin in cable insulation life over time subjected to aging. This paper presents a framework based on the structural reliability theory to quantify the life time of I and C cable subjecting to thermal aging. Since cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables are extensively being used in Indian NPPs, the remaining life time evaluations have been carried out for a typical XLPE cable. However, the methodology can be extended to other cables such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene propylene rubber (EPR), etc.

  11. Assessment of data-assisted prediction by inclusion of crosslinking/mass-spectrometry and small angle X-ray scattering data in the 12th Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamò, Giorgio E; Abriata, Luciano A; Fonti, Giulia; Dal Peraro, Matteo

    2018-03-01

    Integrative modeling approaches attempt to combine experiments and computation to derive structure-function relationships in complex molecular assemblies. Despite their importance for the advancement of life sciences, benchmarking of existing methodologies is rather poor. The 12 th round of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP) offered a unique niche to benchmark data and methods from two kinds of experiments often used in integrative modeling, namely residue-residue contacts obtained through crosslinking/mass-spectrometry (CLMS), and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments. Upon assessment of the models submitted by predictors for 3 targets assisted by CLMS data and 11 targets by SAXS data, we observed no significant improvement when compared to the best data-blind models, although most predictors did improve relative to their own data-blind predictions. Only for target Tx892 of the CLMS-assisted category and for target Ts947 of the SAXS-assisted category, there was a net, albeit mild, improvement relative to the best data-blind predictions. We discuss here possible reasons for the relatively poor success, which point rather to inconsistencies in the data sources rather than in the methods, to which a few groups were less sensitive. We conclude with suggestions that could improve the potential of data integration in future CASP rounds in terms of experimental data production, methods development, data management and prediction assessment. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Nurses' Assessment of Rehabilitation Potential and Prediction of Functional Status at Discharge from Inpatient Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jamie S.; Grigsby, Jim; Teel, Cynthia S.; Kramer, Andrew M.

    2009-01-01

    The goals of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of nurses' predictions of rehabilitation potential in older adults admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities and to ascertain whether the addition of a measure of executive cognitive function would enhance predictive accuracy. Secondary analysis was performed on prospective data collected…

  13. Prediction of Tissue Outcome and Assessment of Treatment Effect in Acute Ischemic Stroke Using Deep Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne; Hansen, Mikkel Bo; Tietze, Anna

    2018-01-01

    of automatically identifying and combining acute imaging features to accurately predict final lesion volume. METHODS: Using acute magnetic resonance imaging, we developed and trained a deep convolutional neural network (CNNdeep) to predict final imaging outcome. A total of 222 patients were included, of which 187...

  14. Assessment of the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of Reading Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askov, Warren; And Others

    The predictive validity and the general usability of a battery of 10 tests reported by de Hirsch, Jansky, and Langford, the de Hirsch Predictive Index Tests of reading failure, were examined. The de Hirsch battery was administered to 433 kindergarten children in six public schools. When the pupils entered first grade, the Metropolitan Readiness…

  15. Frost tolerance in wild potatoes : Assessing the predictivity of taxonomic, geographic and ecological factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hijmans, R.J.; Jacobs, M.; Bamberg, J.B.; Spooner, D.M.

    2003-01-01

    The use of genetic resources could be more effective and efficient if we were able to predict the presence or absence of useful traits in different populations or accessions. We analyzed the extent to which taxonomic, geographic and ecological factors can predict the presence of frost tolerance in

  16. Assessment of Predictive Markers of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Breast Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mallika Tewari

    2010-10-01

    Conclusion: Of all parameters examined, only the apoptosis-related genes (Bcl-2 and BAX seemed to exert some influence on the response to NACT, and neither by itself was sufficient to predict pCR; however, 50 patients is not sufficient to simultaneously analyse several predictive markers.

  17. Editorial Commentary: Single-Image Slice Magnetic Resonance Imaging Assessments Do Not Predict 3-Dimensional Muscle Volume.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jefferson C

    2016-01-01

    No single-image magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment-Goutallier classification, Fuchs classification, or cross-sectional area-is predictive of whole-muscle volume or fatty atrophy of the supraspinatus or infraspinatus. Rather, 3-dimensional MRI measurement of whole-muscle volume and fat-free muscle volume is required and is associated with shoulder strength, which is clinically relevant. Three-dimensional MRI may represent a new gold standard for assessment of the rotator cuff musculature using imaging and may help to predict the feasibility of repair of a rotator cuff tear as well as the postoperative outcome. Unfortunately, 3-dimensional MRI assessment of muscle volume is labor intensive and is not widely available for clinical use. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Research on simulation technology for CBRN threat assessment system. Prediction technology for atmospheric dispersion of CBRN materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Hiroaki; Yano, Masanori; Nakata, Mitsuhiro; Takeda, Masaki

    2013-01-01

    The technical survey is conducted on the CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) Threat Assessment System Simulation Technology. The dispersion property of CBRN materials is summarized, and the current simulation techniques for CBRN materials dispersion are described. The effects of advection-diffusion, sedimentation by the gravity, buoyancy and wash-out by rainfall on the dispersion property of CBRN materials should be considered in the simulation modeling. The concentration distribution of CBRN materials is predicted through the meteorological analysis, the flow analysis and the dispersion analysis, and the hazard map will be produced from that. A selection of simulation method, model, domain and number of computational grid points is necessary to perform the simulation, considering the balance between calculation cost and prediction accuracy. For construction of CBRN Threat Assessment System, it is important how to integrate the developed simulation element technologies and threat assessment technologies. (author)

  19. Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman

    2017-11-24

    To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.

  20. Optimizing the Risk Assessment in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Comparison of 5 Scores Predicting 7 Outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Cúrdia Gonçalves

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Although different scores have been suggested to predict outcomes in the setting of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB, few comparative studies between simplified versions of older scores and recent scores have been published. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of pre- (PreRS and postendoscopic Rockall scores (PostRS, the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS and its simplified version (sGBS, as well as the AIMS65 score in predicting different clinical outcomes. Methods: In this retrospective study, PreRS, PostRS, GBS, sGBS, and AIMS65 score were calculated, and then, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each score to predict blood transfusion, endoscopic therapy, surgery, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, as well as 30-day rebleeding or mortality. Results: PreRS, PostRS, GBS, and sGBS were calculated for all the 433 included patients, but AIMS65 calculation was only possible for 315 patients. Only the PreRS and PostRS were able to fairly predict 30-day mortality. The GBS and sGBS were good in predicting blood transfusion and reasonable in predicting surgery. None of the studied scores were good in predicting the need for endoscopic therapy, admission to intensive/intermediate care unit, length of hospital stay, and 30-day rebleeding. Conclusions: Owing to the identified limitations, none of the 5 studied scores could be singly used to predict all the clinically relevant outcomes in the setting of UGIB. The sGBS was as precise as the GBS in predicting blood transfusion and surgery. The PreRS and PostRS were the only scores that could predict 30-day mortality. An algorithm using the PreRS and the sGBS as an initial approach to patients with UGIB is presented and suggested.

  1. Social justice in education: how the function of selection in educational institutions predicts support for (non)egalitarian assessment practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autin, Frédérique; Batruch, Anatolia; Butera, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    Educational institutions are considered a keystone for the establishment of a meritocratic society. They supposedly serve two functions: an educational function that promotes learning for all, and a selection function that sorts individuals into different programs, and ultimately social positions, based on individual merit. We study how the function of selection relates to support for assessment practices known to harm vs. benefit lower status students, through the perceived justice principles underlying these practices. We study two assessment practices: normative assessment-focused on ranking and social comparison, known to hinder the success of lower status students-and formative assessment-focused on learning and improvement, known to benefit lower status students. Normative assessment is usually perceived as relying on an equity principle, with rewards being allocated based on merit and should thus appear as positively associated with the function of selection. Formative assessment is usually perceived as relying on corrective justice that aims to ensure equality of outcomes by considering students' needs, which makes it less suitable for the function of selection. A questionnaire measuring these constructs was administered to university students. Results showed that believing that education is intended to select the best students positively predicts support for normative assessment, through increased perception of its reliance on equity, and negatively predicts support for formative assessment, through reduced perception of its ability to establish corrective justice. This study suggests that the belief in the function of selection as inherent to educational institutions can contribute to the reproduction of social inequalities by preventing change from assessment practices known to disadvantage lower-status student, namely normative assessment, to more favorable practices, namely formative assessment, and by promoting matching beliefs in justice principles.

  2. Uncertainty quantification's role in modeling and simulation planning, and credibility assessment through the predictive capability maturity model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rider, William J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Witkowski, Walter R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mousseau, Vincent Andrew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-04-13

    The importance of credible, trustworthy numerical simulations is obvious especially when using the results for making high-consequence decisions. Determining the credibility of such numerical predictions is much more difficult and requires a systematic approach to assessing predictive capability, associated uncertainties and overall confidence in the computational simulation process for the intended use of the model. This process begins with an evaluation of the computational modeling of the identified, important physics of the simulation for its intended use. This is commonly done through a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT). Then an assessment of the evidence basis supporting the ability to computationally simulate these physics can be performed using various frameworks such as the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM). There were several critical activities that follow in the areas of code and solution verification, validation and uncertainty quantification, which will be described in detail in the following sections. Here, we introduce the subject matter for general applications but specifics are given for the failure prediction project. In addition, the first task that must be completed in the verification & validation procedure is to perform a credibility assessment to fully understand the requirements and limitations of the current computational simulation capability for the specific application intended use. The PIRT and PCMM are tools used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to provide a consistent manner to perform such an assessment. Ideally, all stakeholders should be represented and contribute to perform an accurate credibility assessment. PIRTs and PCMMs are both described in brief detail below and the resulting assessments for an example project are given.

  3. Predictive value of quantitative dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy in assessing cardiovascular risk after vascular surgery in diabetes mellitus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, S.E.; Lewis, S.M.; Pippin, J.J.; Kosinski, E.J.; Campbell, D.; Nesto, R.W.; Hill, T.

    1989-01-01

    Cardiac complications represent a major risk to patients undergoing vascular surgery. Diabetic patients may be particularly prone to such complications due to the high incidence of concomitant coronary artery disease, the severity of which may be clinically unrecognized. Attempts to stratify groups by clinical criteria have been useful but lack the predictive value of currently used noninvasive techniques such as dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy. One hundred one diabetic patients were evaluated with dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy before undergoing vascular surgery. The incidence of thallium abnormalities was high (80%) and did not correlate with clinical markers of coronary disease. Even in a subgroup of patients with no overt clinical evidence of underlying heart disease, thallium abnormalities were present in 59%. Cardiovascular complications, however, occurred in only 11% of all patients. Statistically significant prediction of risk was not achieved with simple assessment of thallium results as normal or abnormal. Quantification of total number of reversible defects, as well as assessment of ischemia in the distribution of the left anterior descending coronary artery was required for optimum predictive accuracy. The prevalence of dipyridamole-thallium abnormalities in a diabetic population is much higher than that reported in nondiabetic patients and cannot be predicted by usual clinical indicators of heart disease. In addition, cardiovascular risk of vascular surgery can be optimally assessed by quantitative analysis of dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy and identification of high- and low-risk subgroups

  4. Assessing Genomic Selection Prediction Accuracy in a Dynamic Barley Breeding Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Sallam

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Prediction accuracy of genomic selection (GS has been previously evaluated through simulation and cross-validation; however, validation based on progeny performance in a plant breeding program has not been investigated thoroughly. We evaluated several prediction models in a dynamic barley breeding population comprised of 647 six-row lines using four traits differing in genetic architecture and 1536 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP markers. The breeding lines were divided into six sets designated as one parent set and five consecutive progeny sets comprised of representative samples of breeding lines over a 5-yr period. We used these data sets to investigate the effect of model and training population composition on prediction accuracy over time. We found little difference in prediction accuracy among the models confirming prior studies that found the simplest model, random regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP, to be accurate across a range of situations. In general, we found that using the parent set was sufficient to predict progeny sets with little to no gain in accuracy from generating larger training populations by combining the parent set with subsequent progeny sets. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.03 to 0.99 across the four traits and five progeny sets. We explored characteristics of the training and validation populations (marker allele frequency, population structure, and linkage disequilibrium, LD as well as characteristics of the trait (genetic architecture and heritability, . Fixation of markers associated with a trait over time was most clearly associated with reduced prediction accuracy for the mycotoxin trait DON. Higher trait in the training population and simpler trait architecture were associated with greater prediction accuracy.

  5. The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale

  6. Prediction uncertainty assessment of a systems biology model requires a sample of the full probability distribution of its parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon van Mourik

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-parameter models in systems biology are typically ‘sloppy’: some parameters or combinations of parameters may be hard to estimate from data, whereas others are not. One might expect that parameter uncertainty automatically leads to uncertain predictions, but this is not the case. We illustrate this by showing that the prediction uncertainty of each of six sloppy models varies enormously among different predictions. Statistical approximations of parameter uncertainty may lead to dramatic errors in prediction uncertainty estimation. We argue that prediction uncertainty assessment must therefore be performed on a per-prediction basis using a full computational uncertainty analysis. In practice this is feasible by providing a model with a sample or ensemble representing the distribution of its parameters. Within a Bayesian framework, such a sample may be generated by a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm that infers the parameter distribution based on experimental data. Matlab code for generating the sample (with the Differential Evolution Markov Chain sampler and the subsequent uncertainty analysis using such a sample, is supplied as Supplemental Information.

  7. Physics-based Modeling Tools for Life Prediction and Durability Assessment of Advanced Materials, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The technical objectives of this program are: (1) to develop a set of physics-based modeling tools to predict the initiation of hot corrosion and to address pit and...

  8. About Using Predictive Models and Tools To Assess Chemicals under TSCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of EPA's effort to promote chemical safety, OPPT provides public access to predictive models and tools which can help inform the public on the hazards and risks of substances and improve chemical management decisions.

  9. Predictive Models and Tools for Assessing Chemicals under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has developed databases and predictive models to help evaluate the hazard, exposure, and risk of chemicals released to the environment and how workers, the general public, and the environment may be exposed to and affected by them.

  10. Simplified predictive models for CO2 sequestration performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Ganesh, Priya [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Schuetter, Jared [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); He, Jincong [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Jin, Zhaoyang [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States); Durlofsky, Louis J. [Battelle Memorial Inst., Columbus, OH (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

  11. Predicting Ranger Assessment and Selection Program 1 Success and Optimizing Class Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Healthcare Specialist) 149 150 68X ( Mental Health Specialist) 1 74 74D (Chemical Operations Specialist) 15 15 88 88M (Motor Transport Operator) 27 27 89...regression and partition tree models to identify significant factors that contribute to a candidate’s success at RASP1 and predict graduation rates. We...tree models to identify significant factors that contribute to a candidate’s success at RASP1 and predict graduation rates. We use an integer linear

  12. The Expanded FindCore Method for Identification of a Core Atom Set for Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, David A.; Grullon, Jennifer; Huang, Yuanpeng J.; Tejero, Roberto; Montelione, Gaetano T.

    2014-01-01

    Maximizing the scientific impact of NMR-based structure determination requires robust and statistically sound methods for assessing the precision of NMR-derived structures. In particular, a method to define a core atom set for calculating superimpositions and validating structure predictions is critical to the use of NMR-derived structures as targets in the CASP competition. FindCore (D.A. Snyder and G.T. Montelione PROTEINS 2005;59:673–686) is a superimposition independent method for identifying a core atom set, and partitioning that set into domains. However, as FindCore optimizes superimposition by sensitively excluding not-well-defined atoms, the FindCore core may not comprise all atoms suitable for use in certain applications of NMR structures, including the CASP assessment process. Adapting the FindCore approach to assess predicted models against experimental NMR structures in CASP10 required modification of the FindCore method. This paper describes conventions and a standard protocol to calculate an “Expanded FindCore” atom set suitable for validation and application in biological and biophysical contexts. A key application of the Expanded FindCore method is to identify a core set of atoms in the experimental NMR structure for which it makes sense to validate predicted protein structure models. We demonstrate the application of this Expanded FindCore method in characterizing well-defined regions of 18 NMR-derived CASP10 target structures. The Expanded FindCore protocol defines “expanded core atom sets” that match an expert’s intuition of which parts of the structure are sufficiently well-defined to use in assessing CASP model predictions. We also illustrate the impact of this analysis on the CASP GDT assessment scores. PMID:24327305

  13. Breeding Jatropha curcas by genomic selection: A pilot assessment of the accuracy of predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo Peixoto, Leonardo de; Laviola, Bruno Galvêas; Alves, Alexandre Alonso; Rosado, Tatiana Barbosa; Bhering, Leonardo Lopes

    2017-01-01

    Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY) and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S) using restricted maximum likelihood (REML); to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.

  14. Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur

    2018-01-01

    The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

  15. Predicting space telerobotic operator training performance from human spatial ability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Andrew M.; Oman, Charles M.; Galvan, Raquel; Natapoff, Alan

    2013-11-01

    Our goal was to determine whether existing tests of spatial ability can predict an astronaut's qualification test performance after robotic training. Because training astronauts to be qualified robotics operators is so long and expensive, NASA is interested in tools that can predict robotics performance before training begins. Currently, the Astronaut Office does not have a validated tool to predict robotics ability as part of its astronaut selection or training process. Commonly used tests of human spatial ability may provide such a tool to predict robotics ability. We tested the spatial ability of 50 active astronauts who had completed at least one robotics training course, then used logistic regression models to analyze the correlation between spatial ability test scores and the astronauts' performance in their evaluation test at the end of the training course. The fit of the logistic function to our data is statistically significant for several spatial tests. However, the prediction performance of the logistic model depends on the criterion threshold assumed. To clarify the critical selection issues, we show how the probability of correct classification vs. misclassification varies as a function of the mental rotation test criterion level. Since the costs of misclassification are low, the logistic models of spatial ability and robotic performance are reliable enough only to be used to customize regular and remedial training. We suggest several changes in tracking performance throughout robotics training that could improve the range and reliability of predictive models.

  16. Breeding Jatropha curcas by genomic selection: A pilot assessment of the accuracy of predictive models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo de Azevedo Peixoto

    Full Text Available Genomic wide selection is a promising approach for improving the selection accuracy in plant breeding, particularly in species with long life cycles, such as Jatropha. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to estimate the genetic parameters for grain yield (GY and the weight of 100 seeds (W100S using restricted maximum likelihood (REML; to compare the performance of GWS methods to predict GY and W100S; and to estimate how many markers are needed to train the GWS model to obtain the maximum accuracy. Eight GWS models were compared in terms of predictive ability. The impact that the marker density had on the predictive ability was investigated using a varying number of markers, from 2 to 1,248. Because the genetic variance between evaluated genotypes was significant, it was possible to obtain selection gain. All of the GWS methods tested in this study can be used to predict GY and W100S in Jatropha. A training model fitted using 1,000 and 800 markers is sufficient to capture the maximum genetic variance and, consequently, maximum prediction ability of GY and W100S, respectively. This study demonstrated the applicability of genome-wide prediction to identify useful genetic sources of GY and W100S for Jatropha breeding. Further research is needed to confirm the applicability of the proposed approach to other complex traits.

  17. The predictive value of aptitude assessment in laparoscopic surgery : a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramp, Kelvin H.; van Det, Marc J.; Hoff, Christiaan; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; ten Cate Hoedemaker, Henk O.; Pierie, Jean-Pierre E. N.

    ContextCurrent methods of assessing candidates for medical specialties that involve laparoscopic skills suffer from a lack of instruments to assess the ability to work in a minimally invasive surgery environment. ObjectivesA meta-analysis was conducted to investigate whether aptitude assessment can

  18. The Quality of Open-Access Video-Based Orthopaedic Instructional Content for the Shoulder Physical Exam is Inconsistent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urch, Ekaterina; Taylor, Samuel A; Cody, Elizabeth; Fabricant, Peter D; Burket, Jayme C; O'Brien, Stephen J; Dines, David M; Dines, Joshua S

    2016-10-01

    The internet has an increasing role in both patient and physician education. While several recent studies critically appraised the quality and accuracy of web-based written information available to patients, no studies have evaluated such parameters for open-access video content designed for provider use. The primary goal of the study was to determine the accuracy of internet-based instructional videos featuring the shoulder physical examination. An assessment of quality and accuracy of said video content was performed using the basic shoulder examination as a surrogate for the "best-case scenario" due to its widely accepted components that are stable over time. Three search terms ("shoulder," "examination," and "shoulder exam") were entered into the four online video resources most commonly accessed by orthopaedic surgery residents (VuMedi, G9MD, Orthobullets, and YouTube). Videos were captured and independently reviewed by three orthopaedic surgeons. Quality and accuracy were assessed in accordance with previously published standards. Of the 39 video tutorials reviewed, 61% were rated as fair or poor. Specific maneuvers such as the Hawkins test, O'Brien sign, and Neer impingement test were accurately demonstrated in 50, 36, and 27% of videos, respectively. Inter-rater reliability was excellent (mean kappa 0.80, range 0.79-0.81). Our results suggest that information presented in open-access video tutorials featuring the physical examination of the shoulder is inconsistent. Trainee exposure to such potentially inaccurate information may have a significant impact on trainee education.

  19. Social justice in education: how the function of selection in educational institutions predicts support for (non)egalitarian assessment practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autin, Frédérique; Batruch, Anatolia; Butera, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    Educational institutions are considered a keystone for the establishment of a meritocratic society. They supposedly serve two functions: an educational function that promotes learning for all, and a selection function that sorts individuals into different programs, and ultimately social positions, based on individual merit. We study how the function of selection relates to support for assessment practices known to harm vs. benefit lower status students, through the perceived justice principles underlying these practices. We study two assessment practices: normative assessment—focused on ranking and social comparison, known to hinder the success of lower status students—and formative assessment—focused on learning and improvement, known to benefit lower status students. Normative assessment is usually perceived as relying on an equity principle, with rewards being allocated based on merit and should thus appear as positively associated with the function of selection. Formative assessment is usually perceived as relying on corrective justice that aims to ensure equality of outcomes by considering students’ needs, which makes it less suitable for the function of selection. A questionnaire measuring these constructs was administered to university students. Results showed that believing that education is intended to select the best students positively predicts support for normative assessment, through increased perception of its reliance on equity, and negatively predicts support for formative assessment, through reduced perception of its ability to establish corrective justice. This study suggests that the belief in the function of selection as inherent to educational institutions can contribute to the reproduction of social inequalities by preventing change from assessment practices known to disadvantage lower-status student, namely normative assessment, to more favorable practices, namely formative assessment, and by promoting matching beliefs in justice

  20. Usefulness of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) in predicting the nutritional status of people with mental disorders in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Alan C; Chou, Yuan-Ti; Chang, Tsui-Lan

    2011-02-01

    The study was to evaluate the ability of the Mini Nutritional Assessment in predicting malnutrition in people with three subtypes of mental disorder (schizophrenia, major depression and bipolar disorder) in Taiwan. The study involved a convenience sample of 120 residents of psychiatric wards managed by a hospital in central Taiwan (52 with schizophrenia, 36 with major depression and 32 with bipolar disorder) classified according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria. A structured questionnaire elicited subjects' personal data, disease history and answers to questions in the Mini Nutritional Assessment. Serum and anthropometrical parameters were measured. Nutritional status was evaluated with a content-equivalent version of the Mini Nutritional Assessment (Taiwan version-1, T1). The Mini Nutritional Assessment-Taiwan version-1 was effective in assessing the nutritional status of people of all three subtypes of disorder. Nutritional statuses predicted with the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Taiwan version-1 agreed well with other nutritional indicators such as BMI, waist circumference and appetite status. According to the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Taiwan version-1, people with major depression were more likely to be at risk of undernutrition, whereas people with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder were more likely to be at risk of overnutrition. The Mini Nutritional Assessment-Taiwan version-1 can effectively grade both undernutrition and overnutrition of people with schizophrenia, major depression or bipolar disorder. The Mini Nutritional Assessment enables nurses to monitor emerging nutritional problems in people with psychiatric disorder without relying on subjective judgement. With proper intervention, it can help reduce nutrition-related chronic conditions in these individuals and save on healthcare cost. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  1. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Kang, In-Sik; Shukla, J.; Park, C.-K.; Kumar, A.; Schemm, J.; Cocke, S.; Kug, J.-S.; Luo, J.-J.; Zhou, T.; Wang, B.; Fu, X.; Yun, W.-T.; Alves, O.; Jin, E. K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B.; Krishnamurti, T.; Lau, N. C.; Lau, W.; Liu, P.; Pegion, P.; Rosati, T.; Schubert, S.; Stern, W.; Suarez, M.; Yamagata, T.

    2009-07-01

    We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980-2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981-2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface

  2. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin; Lee, June-Yi; Fu, X.; Liu, P. [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, IPRC, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kang, In-Sik; Kug, J.S. [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea); Shukla, J.; Jin, E.K.; Kinter, J.; Kirtman, B. [George Mason University and COLA, Climate Dynamics Program, Calverton, MD (United States); Park, C.K. [APEC Climate Center, Busan (Korea); Kumar, A.; Schemm, J. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Cocke, S.; Krishnamurti, T. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Luo, J.J. [Frontier Research Center for Global Chnage, Yokohama (Japan); Zhou, T.; Wang, B. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG/Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Yun, W.T. [Korean Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea); Alves, O. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Melburne (Australia); Lau, N.C.; Rosati, T.; Stern, W. [Princeton University, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ (United States); Lau, W.; Pegion, P.; Schubert, S.; Suarez, M. [Godard Space Flight Center/NASA, Greenbelt, MD (United States)

    2009-07-15

    We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980-2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models' MME for the period of 1981-2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Nino 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface

  3. The Predictive Validity of Coordinate Algebra Common District Assessments on High-Stakes Coordinate Algebra End of Course Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Jessica Marie

    2016-01-01

    Formative assessments have been deemed the key to effectively measuring if students have mastered the understanding of curriculum standards. Thus, allowing teachers to use the results to tailor remediation and use other efforts to support mastery of student learning before the end of the school year has positive effects on student achievement.…

  4. [Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

    2015-12-01

    To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; Ppredictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; Ppredictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75.0%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. Cramped

  5. Assessment of MRI-Based Automated Fetal Cerebral Cortical Folding Measures in Prediction of Gestational Age in the Third Trimester.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, J; Awate, S P; Licht, D J; Clouchoux, C; du Plessis, A J; Avants, B B; Vossough, A; Gee, J C; Limperopoulos, C

    2015-07-01

    Traditional methods of dating a pregnancy based on history or sonographic assessment have a large variation in the third trimester. We aimed to assess the ability of various quantitative measures of brain cortical folding on MR imaging in determining fetal gestational age in the third trimester. We evaluated 8 different quantitative cortical folding measures to predict gestational age in 33 healthy fetuses by using T2-weighted fetal MR imaging. We compared the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age by these cortical folding measures with the accuracy of prediction by brain volume measurement and by a previously reported semiquantitative visual scale of brain maturity. Regression models were constructed, and measurement biases and variances were determined via a cross-validation procedure. The cortical folding measures are accurate in the estimation and prediction of gestational age (mean of the absolute error, 0.43 ± 0.45 weeks) and perform better than (P = .024) brain volume (mean of the absolute error, 0.72 ± 0.61 weeks) or sonography measures (SDs approximately 1.5 weeks, as reported in literature). Prediction accuracy is comparable with that of the semiquantitative visual assessment score (mean, 0.57 ± 0.41 weeks). Quantitative cortical folding measures such as global average curvedness can be an accurate and reliable estimator of gestational age and brain maturity for healthy fetuses in the third trimester and have the potential to be an indicator of brain-growth delays for at-risk fetuses and preterm neonates. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  6. Probabilistic Assessment of Above Zone Pressure Predictions at a Geologic Carbon Storage Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Namhata, Argha; Oladyshkin, Sergey; Dilmore, Robert M.; Zhang, Liwei; Nakles, David V.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage into geological formations is regarded as an important mitigation strategy for anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. This study first simulates the leakage of CO2 and brine from a storage reservoir through the caprock. Then, we estimate the resulting pressure changes at the zone overlying the caprock also known as Above Zone Monitoring Interval (AZMI). A data-driven approach of arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) Expansion is then used to quantify the uncertainty in the above zone pressure prediction based on the uncertainties in different geologic parameters. Finally, a global sensitivity analysis is performed with Sobol indices based on the aPC technique to determine the relative importance of different parameters on pressure prediction. The results indicate that there can be uncertainty in pressure prediction locally around the leakage zones. The degree of such uncertainty in prediction depends on the quality of site specific information available for analysis. The scientific results from this study provide substantial insight that there is a need for site-specific data for efficient predictions of risks associated with storage activities. The presented approach can provide a basis of optimized pressure based monitoring network design at carbon storage sites.

  7. Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

    2016-12-01

    Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

  8. Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

    2008-08-01

    This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

  9. Assessment of Lightning Transients on a De-Iced Rotor Blade with Predictive Tools and Coaxial Return Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillet, S.; Gosmain, A.; Ducoux, W.; Ponçon, M.; Fontaine, G.; Desseix, P.; Perraud, P.

    2012-05-01

    The increasing use of composite materials in aircrafts primary structures has led to different problematics in the field of safety of flight in lightning conditions. The consequences of this technological mutation, which occurs in a parallel context of extension of electrified critical functions, are addressed by aircraft manufacturers through the enhancement of their available assessment means of lightning transient. On the one hand, simulation tools, provided an accurate description of aircraft design, are today valuable assessment tools, in both predictive and operative terms. On the other hand, in-house test means allow confirmation and consolidation of design office hardening solutions. The combined use of predictive simulation tools and in- house test means offers an efficient and reliable support for all aircraft developments in their various life-time stages. The present paper provides PREFACE research project results that illustrate the above introduced strategy on the de-icing system of the NH90 composite main rotor blade.

  10. Performance Assessment of Turbulence Models for the Prediction of the Reactor Internal Flow in the Scale-down APR+

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Gonghee; Bang, Youngseok; Woo, Swengwoong; Kim, Dohyeong; Kang, Minku

    2013-01-01

    The types of errors in CFD simulation can be divided into the two main categories: numerical errors and model errors. Turbulence model is one of the important sources for model errors. In this study, in order to assess the prediction performance of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS)-based two equations turbulence models for the analysis of flow distribution inside a 1/5 scale-down APR+, the simulation was conducted with the commercial CFD software, ANSYS CFX V. 14. In this study, in order to assess the prediction performance of turbulence models for the analysis of flow distribution inside a 1/5 scale-down APR+, the simulation was conducted with the commercial CFD software, ANSYS CFX V. 14. Both standard k-ε model and SST model predicted the similar flow pattern inside reactor. Therefore it was concluded that the prediction performance of both turbulence models was nearly same. Complex thermal-hydraulic characteristics exist inside reactor because the reactor internals consist of fuel assembly, control rod assembly, and the internal structures. Either flow distribution test for the scale-down reactor model or computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation have been conducted to understand these complex thermal-hydraulic features inside reactor

  11. The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanie Riemer

    Full Text Available Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

  12. The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

    2014-01-01

    Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

  13. The Predictive Value of Early Behavioural Assessments in Pet Dogs – A Longitudinal Study from Neonates to Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

    2014-01-01

    Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2–10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40–50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited. PMID:25003341

  14. Assessing the suitability of soft computing approaches for forest fires prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samaher Al_Janabi

    2018-07-01

    Full Text Available Forest fires present one of the main causes of environmental hazards that have many negative results in different aspect of life. Therefore, early prediction, fast detection and rapid action are the key elements for controlling such phenomenon and saving lives. Through this work, 517 different entries were selected at different times for montesinho natural park (MNP in Portugal to determine the best predictor that has the ability to detect forest fires, The principle component analysis (PCA was applied to find the critical patterns and particle swarm optimization (PSO technique was used to segment the fire regions (clusters. In the next stage, five soft computing (SC Techniques based on neural network were used in parallel to identify the best technique that would potentially give more accurate and optimum results in predicting of forest fires, these techniques namely; cascade correlation network (CCN, multilayer perceptron neural network (MPNN, polynomial neural network (PNN, radial basis function (RBF and support vector machine (SVM In the final stage, the predictors and their performance were evaluated based on five quality measures including root mean squared error (RMSE, mean squared error (MSE, relative absolute error (RAE, mean absolute error (MAE and information gain (IG. The results indicate that SVM technique was more effective and efficient than the RBF, MPNN, PNN and CCN predictors. The results also show that the SVM algorithm provides more precise predictions compared with other predictors with small estimation error. The obtained results confirm that the SVM improves the prediction accuracy and suitable for forest fires prediction compared to other methods. Keywords: Forest fires, Soft computing, Prediction, Principle component analysis, Particle swarm optimization, Cascade correlation network, Multilayer perceptron neural network, Polynomial neural networks, Radial basis function, Support vector machine

  15. Developing risk prediction models for kidney injury and assessing incremental value for novel biomarkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Meisner, Allison; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

    2014-08-07

    The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients' risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  16. Use of citation analysis to predict the outcome of the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise for Unit of Assessment (UoA 61: Library and Information Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Holmes

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A citation study was carried out to predict the outcome of the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise. The correlation between scores achieved by academic departments in the UK in the 1996 Research Assessment Exercise, and the number of citations received by academics in those departments for articles published in the period 1994-2000, using the Institute for Scientific Information’s citation databases, was assessed. A citation study was carried out on all three hundred and thirty eight academics that teach in the UK library and information science schools. These authors between them received two thousand three hundred and one citations for articles they had published between 1994 and the present. The results were ranked by Department, and compared to the ratings awarded to the departments in the 1996 Higher Education Funding Council Research Assessment Exercise. On the assumption that RAE scores and citation counts are correlated, predictions were made for the likely RAE scores in the 2001 RAE. Comments were also made on the impact of staff movements from one Higher Education Institution to another.

  17. Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marshall, Andrew G. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, (Australia); Hudson, Debra; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

    2011-12-15

    We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December-February (austral summer) and least realistic in March-May (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3 weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October-March. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3 weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. (orig.)

  18. Misleading health-related information promoted through video-based social media: anorexia on YouTube.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed-Abdul, Shabbir; Fernandez-Luque, Luis; Jian, Wen-Shan; Li, Yu-Chuan; Crain, Steven; Hsu, Min-Huei; Wang, Yao-Chin; Khandregzen, Dorjsuren; Chuluunbaatar, Enkhzaya; Nguyen, Phung Anh; Liou, Der-Ming

    2013-02-13

    The amount of information being uploaded onto social video platforms, such as YouTube, Vimeo, and Veoh, continues to spiral, making it increasingly difficult to discern reliable health information from misleading content. There are thousands of YouTube videos promoting misleading information about anorexia (eg, anorexia as a healthy lifestyle). The aim of this study was to investigate anorexia-related misinformation disseminated through YouTube videos. We retrieved YouTube videos related to anorexia using the keywords anorexia, anorexia nervosa, proana, and thinspo on October 10, 2011.Three doctors reviewed 140 videos with approximately 11 hours of video content, classifying them as informative, pro-anorexia, or others. By informative we mean content describing the health consequences of anorexia and advice on how to recover from it; by pro-anorexia we mean videos promoting anorexia as a fashion, a source of beauty, and that share tips and methods for becoming and remaining anorexic. The 40 most-viewed videos (20 informative and 20 pro-anorexia videos) were assessed to gauge viewer behavior. The interrater agreement of classification was moderate (Fleiss' kappa=0.5), with 29.3% (n=41) being rated as pro-anorexia, 55.7% (n=78) as informative, and 15.0% (n=21) as others. Pro-anorexia videos were favored 3 times more than informative videos (odds ratio [OR] 3.3, 95% CI 3.3-3.4, Ptrustworthiness of online information about beauty and healthy lifestyles. Health authorities producing videos to combat anorexia should consider involving celebrities and models to reach a wider audience. More research is needed to study the characteristics of pro-anorexia videos in order to develop algorithms that will automatically detect and filter those videos before they become popular.

  19. Adapting Agriculture Platforms for Nutrition: A Case Study of a Participatory, Video-Based Agricultural Extension Platform in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiyala, Suneetha; Morgan, Emily H; Cyriac, Shruthi; Margolies, Amy; Roopnaraine, Terry

    2016-01-01

    Successful integration of nutrition interventions into large-scale development programmes from nutrition-relevant sectors, such as agriculture, can address critical underlying determinants of undernutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of on-going nutrition-specific activities. However, evidence on how this can be done is limited. This study examines the feasibility of delivering maternal, infant, and young child nutrition behaviour change communication through an innovative agricultural extension programme serving nutritionally vulnerable groups in rural India. The existing agriculture programme involves participatory production of low-cost videos promoting best practices and broad dissemination through village-level women's self-help groups. For the nutrition intervention, 10 videos promoting specific maternal, infant, and young child nutrition practices were produced and disseminated in 30 villages. A range of methods was used to collect data, including in-depth interviews with project staff, frontline health workers, and self-help group members and their families; structured observations of mediated video dissemination sessions; nutrition knowledge tests with project staff and self-help group members; and a social network questionnaire to assess diffusion of promoted nutrition messages. We found the nutrition intervention to be well-received by rural communities and viewed as complementary to existing frontline health services. However, compared to agriculture, nutrition content required more time, creativity, and technical support to develop and deliver. Experimentation with promoted nutrition behaviours was high, but sharing of information from the videos with non-viewers was limited. Key lessons learned include the benefits of and need for collaboration with existing health services; continued technical support for implementing partners; engagement with local cultural norms and beliefs; empowerment of women's group members to champion nutrition

  20. Adapting Agriculture Platforms for Nutrition: A Case Study of a Participatory, Video-Based Agricultural Extension Platform in India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suneetha Kadiyala

    Full Text Available Successful integration of nutrition interventions into large-scale development programmes from nutrition-relevant sectors, such as agriculture, can address critical underlying determinants of undernutrition and enhance the coverage and effectiveness of on-going nutrition-specific activities. However, evidence on how this can be done is limited. This study examines the feasibility of delivering maternal, infant, and young child nutrition behaviour change communication through an innovative agricultural extension programme serving nutritionally vulnerable groups in rural India. The existing agriculture programme involves participatory production of low-cost videos promoting best practices and broad dissemination through village-level women's self-help groups. For the nutrition intervention, 10 videos promoting specific maternal, infant, and young child nutrition practices were produced and disseminated in 30 villages. A range of methods was used to collect data, including in-depth interviews with project staff, frontline health workers, and self-help group members and their families; structured observations of mediated video dissemination sessions; nutrition knowledge tests with project staff and self-help group members; and a social network questionnaire to assess diffusion of promoted nutrition messages. We found the nutrition intervention to be well-received by rural communities and viewed as complementary to existing frontline health services. However, compared to agriculture, nutrition content required more time, creativity, and technical support to develop and deliver. Experimentation with promoted nutrition behaviours was high, but sharing of information from the videos with non-viewers was limited. Key lessons learned include the benefits of and need for collaboration with existing health services; continued technical support for implementing partners; engagement with local cultural norms and beliefs; empowerment of women's group members

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular reflexes is of limited value in predicting maximal +Gz-tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Lieshout, E. J.; van Lieshout, J. J.; Krol, J.; Simons, M.; Karemaker, J. M.

    1992-01-01

    The importance of +Gz-induced loss of consciousness as a major cause of inflight incapacitation emphasizes the need for predicting +Gz-tolerance and investigating its possible determinants. The cardiovascular changes from +Gz-stress are initially counteracted reflexly by the cardiovascular autonomic

  2. Assessment of a turbulence model for numerical predictions of sheet-cavitating flows in centrifugal pumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Houlin; Wang, Yong; Liu, Dongxi; Yuan, Shouqi; Wang, Jian [Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang (China)

    2013-09-15

    Various approaches have been developed for numerical predictions of unsteady cavitating turbulent flows. To verify the influence of a turbulence model on the simulation of unsteady attached sheet-cavitating flows in centrifugal pumps, two modified RNG k-ε models (DCM and FBM) are implemented in ANSYS-CFX 13.0 by second development technology, so as to compare three widespread turbulence models in the same platform. The simulation has been executed and compared to experimental results for three different flow coefficients. For four operating conditions, qualitative comparisons are carried out between experimental and numerical cavitation patterns, which are visualized by a high-speed camera and depicted as isosurfaces of vapor volume fraction α{sub v} = 0.1, respectively. The comparison results indicate that, for the development of the sheet attached cavities on the suction side of the impeller blades, the numerical results with different turbulence models are very close to each other and overestimate the experiment ones slightly. However, compared to the cavitation performance experimental curves, the numerical results have obvious difference: the prediction precision with the FBM is higher than the other two turbulence models. In addition, the loading distributions around the blade section at midspan are analyzed in detail. The research results suggest that, for numerical prediction of cavitating flows in centrifugal pumps, the turbulence model has little influence on the development of cavitation bubbles, but the advanced turbulence model can significantly improve the prediction precision of head coefficients and critical cavitation numbers.

  3. Assessment of correlations and models for the prediction of CHF in water subcooled flow boiling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celata, G. P.; Cumo, M.; Mariani, A.

    1994-01-01

    The present paper provides an analysis of available correlations and models for the prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF) in subcooled flow boiling in the range of interest of fusion reactors thermal-hydraulic conditions, i.e. high inlet liquid subcooling and velocity and small channel diameter and length. The aim of the study was to establish the limits of validity of present predictive tools (most of them were proposed with reference to light water reactors (LWR) thermal-hydraulic studies) in the above conditions. The reference dataset represents almost all available data (1865 data points) covering wide ranges of operating conditions in the frame of present interest (0.1 less than p less than 8.4 MPa; 0.3 less than D less than 25.4 mm; 0.1 less than L less than 0.61 m; 2 less than G less than 90.0 Mg/sq m/s; 90 less than delta T(sub sub,in) less than 230 K). Among the tens of predictive tools available in literature four correlations (Levy, Westinghouse, modified-Tong and Tong-75) and three models (Weisman and Ileslamlou, Lee and Mudawar and Katto) were selected. The modified-Tong correlation and the Katto model seem to be reliable predictive tools for the calculation of the CHF in subcooled flow boiling.

  4. Assessment of correlations and models for prediction of CHF in subcooled flow boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celata, G.P.; Mariani, A.; Cumo, M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of available correlations and models for the prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF) in subcooled flow boiling in the ranges of interest of fusion reactor thermal-hydraulic conditions, i.e., high inlet liquid subcooling and velocity and small channel diameter and length. The aim of the study was to establish the limits of validity of present predictive tools (most of them were proposed with reference to LWR thermal-hydraulic studies) in the above conditions. The reference data-set represents most of available data covering wide ranges of operating conditions in the framework of present interest (0.1 s ub, in < 230 K). Among the tens of predictive tools available in literature, four correlations (Levy, Westinghouse, modified-Tong and Tong-75) and three models (Weisman and Ileslamlou Lee and Mudawar and Katto) were selected. The modified-Tong correlation and the Katto model seem to be reliable predictive tools for the calculation of the CHF in subcooled flow boiling

  5. Non-emergency small bowel obstruction: assessment of CT findings that predict need for surgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshmukh, Swati D.; Shin, David S.; Willmann, Juergen K.; Rosenberg, Jarrett; Shin, Lewis; Jeffrey, R.B. [Stanford University, School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2011-05-15

    To identify CT findings predictive of surgical management in non-emergency small bowel obstruction (SBO). Contrast-enhanced abdominal CT of 129 patients with non-emergency SBO were evaluated for small bowel luminal diameter, wall thickness, presence of the small bowel faeces sign (intraluminal particulate matter in a dilated small bowel) and length, transition point, submucosal oedema, mesenteric stranding, ascites and degree of obstruction (low grade partial, high grade partial and complete obstruction). Medical records were reviewed for age, gender, management and history of abdominal surgery, abdominal malignancy, or SBO. Statistical analyses were performed with Stata Release 9.2. Degree of obstruction was the only predictor of need for surgery. Whereas 18.0% of patients with low-grade partial obstruction (n = 50) underwent surgery, 32.5% of patients with high-grade partial obstruction (n = 77) and 100% of patients with complete obstruction (n = 2) required surgery (P = 0.004). The small bowel faeces sign was inversely predictive of surgery (P = 0.018). In non-emergency SBO patients with contrast-enhanced CT imaging, grade of obstruction predicts surgery, while the small bowel faeces sign inversely predicts need for surgery. (orig.)

  6. Using Machine Learning Models to Predict Functional Use (Interagency Alternatives Assessment Workshop)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will outline how data was collected on how chemicals are used in products, models were built using this data to then predict how chemicals can be used in products, and, finally, how combining this information with Tox21 in vitro assays can be use to rapidly scre...

  7. Assessing the sensitivity and robustness of prediction models for apple firmness using spectral scattering technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spectral scattering is useful for nondestructive sensing of fruit firmness. Prediction models, however, are typically built using multivariate statistical methods such as partial least squares regression (PLSR), whose performance generally depends on the characteristics of the data. The aim of this ...

  8. Prediction of Composition and Emission Characteristics of Articles in Support of Exposure Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk to humans from chemicals in consumer products is dependent on both hazard and exposure. The prediction and quantification of near-field (i.e., indoor) chemical exposure from household articles such as furniture and building materials is an ongoing effort. As opposed to (...

  9. Interests, Work Values, and Occupations: Predicting Work Outcomes with the WorkKeys Fit Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaney, Kyle B.; Allen, Jeff; Casillas, Alex; Hanson, Mary Ann; Robbins, Steven B.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined whether a measure of person-environment (P-E) fit predicted worker ratings of work attitudes and supervisor ratings of performance. After combining extant data elements and expert ratings of interest and work value characteristics for each occupation in the O*NET system, the authors generated a "Fit Index"--involving profile…

  10. Predicting Future Antisocial Personality Disorder in Males from a Clinical Assessment in Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Loeber, Rolf; Burke, Jeffrey D.; Applegate, Brooks

    2005-01-01

    It is essential to identify childhood predictors of adult antisocial personality disorder (APD) to target early prevention. It has variously been hypothesized that APD is predicted by childhood conduct disorder (CD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or both disorders. To test these competing hypotheses, the authors used data from a…

  11. A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuit, E.; Kwee, A.; Westerhuis, M.E.M.H.; Dessel, van H.J.H.M.; Graziosi, G.C.M.; Lith, van J.M.M.; Nijhuis, J.G.; Oei, S.G.; Oosterbaan, H.P.; Schuitemaker, N.W.E.; Wouters, M.G.A.J.; Visser, G.H.A.; Mol, B.W.J.; Moons, K.G.M.; Groenwold, R.H.H.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To predict instrumental vaginal delivery or caesarean section for suspected fetal distress or failure to progress. Design Secondary analysis of a randomised trial. Setting Three academic and six non-academic teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. Population 5667 labouring women with a

  12. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Auken, Esben; Bamberg, Charlotte A.; Christensen, Britt S.B.; Clausen, Thomas; Dalgaard, Esben; Effersø, Flemming; Ernstsen, Vibeke; Gertz, Flemming; Hansen, Anne Lausten; He, Xin; Jacobsen, Brian H.; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt; Koch, Julian; Nilsson, Bertel; Petersen, Christian; De Schepper, Guillaume; Schamper, Cyril

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  13. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Auken, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Bamberg, Charlotte A. [City of Aarhus (Denmark); Christensen, Britt S.B. [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Clausen, Thomas [DHI, Hørsholm (Denmark); Dalgaard, Esben [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); Effersø, Flemming [SkyTEM Aps, Beder (Denmark); Ernstsen, Vibeke [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Gertz, Flemming [Knowledge Center for Agriculture, Skejby (Denmark); Hansen, Anne Lausten [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); He, Xin [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Jacobsen, Brian H. [Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jensen, Karsten Høgh [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Koch, Julian [Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark); Nilsson, Bertel [Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark); Petersen, Christian [City of Odder (Denmark); De Schepper, Guillaume [Université Laval, Québec (Canada); Schamper, Cyril [Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark); and others

    2014-01-01

    In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the

  14. Trajectories of Psychosocial Problems in Adolescents Predicted by Findings From Early Well-Child Assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaspers, Merlijne; de Winter, Andrea F.; Huisman, Mark; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Stewart, Roy E.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To describe trajectories of emotional and behavioral problems in adolescents and to identify early indicators of these trajectories using data from routine well-child assessments at ages 0-4 years. Methods: Data from three assessment waves of adolescents (n = 1,816) of the TRAILS were used

  15. PREDICTING LEVELS OF STRESS FROM BIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT DATA: EMPIRICAL MODELS FROM THE EASTERN CORN BELT PLAINS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biological assessment is becoming an increasingly popular tool in the evaluation of stream ecosystem integrity. However, little progress has been made to date in developing tools to relate assessment results to specific stressors. This paper continues the investigation of the f...

  16. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo [KEPCO Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided.

  17. Prediction of Maintenance Period of Equipment Through Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Gee Wook; Kim, Bum Shin; Choi, Woo Song; Park, Myung Soo

    2013-01-01

    Risk-based inspection (RBI) is a well-known method that is used to optimize inspection activities based on risk analysis in order to identify the high-risk components of major facilities such as power plants. RBI, when implemented and maintained properly, improves plant reliability and safety while reducing unplanned outages and repair costs. Risk is given by the product of the probability of failure (Pof) and the consequence of failure (COF). A semi-quantitative method is generally used for risk assessment. Semi-quantitative risk assessment complements the low accuracy of qualitative risk assessment and the high expense and long calculation time of quantitative risk assessment. The first step of RB I is to identify important failure modes and causes in the equipment. Once these are defined, the Pof and COF can be assessed for each failure. During Pof and COF assessment, an effective inspection method and range can be easily found. In this paper, the calculation of the Pof is improved for accurate risk assessment. A modified semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out for boiler facilities of thermal power plants, and the next maintenance schedules for the equipment were decided

  18. Misleading Health-Related Information Promoted Through Video-Based Social Media: Anorexia on YouTube

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu-Chuan; Crain, Steven; Hsu, Min-Huei; Wang, Yao-Chin; Khandregzen, Dorjsuren; Chuluunbaatar, Enkhzaya; Nguyen, Phung Anh

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The amount of information being uploaded onto social video platforms, such as YouTube, Vimeo, and Veoh, continues to spiral, making it increasingly difficult to discern reliable health information from misleading content. There are thousands of YouTube videos promoting misleading information about anorexia (eg, anorexia as a healthy lifestyle). Objective The aim of this study was to investigate anorexia-related misinformation disseminated through YouTube videos. Methods We retrieved YouTube videos related to anorexia using the keywords anorexia, anorexia nervosa, proana, and thinspo on October 10, 2011.Three doctors reviewed 140 videos with approximately 11 hours of video content, classifying them as informative, pro-anorexia, or others. By informative we mean content describing the health consequences of anorexia and advice on how to recover from it; by pro-anorexia we mean videos promoting anorexia as a fashion, a source of beauty, and that share tips and methods for becoming and remaining anorexic. The 40 most-viewed videos (20 informative and 20 pro-anorexia videos) were assessed to gauge viewer behavior. Results The interrater agreement of classification was moderate (Fleiss’ kappa=0.5), with 29.3% (n=41) being rated as pro-anorexia, 55.7% (n=78) as informative, and 15.0% (n=21) as others. Pro-anorexia videos were favored 3 times more than informative videos (odds ratio [OR] 3.3, 95% CI 3.3-3.4, P<.001). Conclusions Pro-anorexia information was identified in 29.3% of anorexia-related videos. Pro-anorexia videos are less common than informative videos; however, in proportional terms, pro-anorexia content is more highly favored and rated by its viewers. Efforts should focus on raising awareness, particularly among teenagers, about the trustworthiness of online information about beauty and healthy lifestyles. Health authorities producing videos to combat anorexia should consider involving celebrities and models to reach a wider audience. More

  19. Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

    2018-06-01

    The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

  20. Predicting adult pulmonary ventilation volume and wearing complianceby on-board accelerometry during personal level exposure assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodes, C. E.; Chillrud, S. N.; Haskell, W. L.; Intille, S. S.; Albinali, F.; Rosenberger, M. E.

    2012-09-01

    BackgroundMetabolic functions typically increase with human activity, but optimal methods to characterize activity levels for real-time predictions of ventilation volume (l min-1) during exposure assessments have not been available. Could tiny, triaxial accelerometers be incorporated into personal level monitors to define periods of acceptable wearing compliance, and allow the exposures (μg m-3) to be extended to potential doses in μg min-1 kg-1 of body weight? ObjectivesIn a pilot effort, we tested: 1) whether appropriately-processed accelerometer data could be utilized to predict compliance and in linear regressions to predict ventilation volumes in real-time as an on-board component of personal level exposure sensor systems, and 2) whether locating the exposure monitors on the chest in the breathing zone, provided comparable accelerometric data to other locations more typically utilized (waist, thigh, wrist, etc.). MethodsPrototype exposure monitors from RTI International and Columbia University were worn on the chest by a pilot cohort of adults while conducting an array of scripted activities (all volumes in-situ. For the subset of participants with complete data (n = 22), linear regressions were constructed (processed accelerometric variable versus ventilation rate) for each participant and exposure monitor type, and Pearson correlations computed to compare across scenarios. ResultsTriaxial accelerometer data were demonstrated to be adequately sensitive indicators for predicting exposure monitor wearing compliance. Strong linear correlations (R values from 0.77 to 0.99) were observed for all participants for both exposure sensor accelerometer variables against ventilation volume for recumbent, sedentary, and ambulatory activities with MET values ˜volume data. Computing accelerometric standard deviations allowed good sensitivity for compliance assessments even for sedentary activities. These pilot findings supported the hypothesis that a common linear

  1. Validation of prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery based on sonographic assessment of hysterotomy scar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranov, A; Salvesen, K Å; Vikhareva, O

    2018-02-01

    To validate a prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on sonographic assessment of the hysterotomy scar, in a Swedish population. Data were collected from a prospective cohort study. We recruited non-pregnant women aged 18-35 years who had undergone one previous low-transverse Cesarean delivery at ≥ 37 gestational weeks and had had no other uterine surgery. Participants who subsequently became pregnant underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination of the Cesarean hysterotomy scar at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 and at 19 + 0 to 21 + 6 gestational weeks. Thickness of the myometrium at the thinnest part of the scar area was measured. After delivery, information on pregnancy outcome was retrieved from hospital records. Individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated using a previously published model. Predicted individual probabilities were divided into deciles. For each decile, observed VBAC rates were calculated. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver-operating characteristics curves were constructed and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated. Complete sonographic data were available for 120 women. Eighty (67%) women underwent trial of labor after Cesarean delivery (TOLAC) with VBAC occurring in 70 (88%) cases. The scar was visible in all 80 women at the first-trimester scan and in 54 (68%) women at the second-trimester scan. AUC was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.28-0.60) among all women who underwent TOLAC and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.71) among those with the scar visible sonographically at both ultrasound examinations. The prediction model demonstrated poor accuracy for prediction of successful VBAC in our Swedish population. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. AHEAD OF THE GAME: ADOPTING 21ST CENTURY LEARNING APPROACHES SUPPORTED BY VIDEO-BASED WEB CONFERENCING TECHNOLOGY IN A ROMANIAN PROFESSIONAL TRAINING MILITARY CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula CHARBONNEAU-GOWDY

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent major political uprisings are indicating the extent to which social learning Web 2.0 technologies, can infl uence change in informal learning settings. Recognition and a discussion of the potential of that infl uence in formal learning settings have only just begun. This article describes a study of an international distance learning project in 2004, using a variety of Web 2.0 technologies, including video-based web conferencing, that sought to initiate and respond to this urgent need for dialogue in the research. Self-selected participants took part in a 5-week English as a foreign language (EFL program, a joint NATO sponsored Canadian and Romanian Ministry of Defense-supported initiative. Clear evidence of linguistic knowledge construction and of important changes to participants’ learner identities, indicates the power of these technologies to support the kind of learning that can lead to the development of global citizens and the skills they will increasingly require in the 21st century.

  3. Cost-effectiveness of a brief video-based HIV intervention for African American and Latino sexually transmitted disease clinic clients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweat, M; O'Donnell, C; O'Donnell, L

    2001-04-13

    Decisions about the dissemination of HIV interventions need to be informed by evidence of their cost-effectiveness in reducing negative health outcomes. Having previously shown the effectiveness of a single-session video-based group intervention (VOICES/VOCES) in reducing incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) among male African American and Latino clients attending an urban STD clinic, this study estimates its cost-effectiveness in terms of disease averted. Cost-effectiveness was calculated using data on effectiveness from a randomized clinical trial of the VOICES/VOCES intervention along with updated data on the costs of intervention from four replication sites. STD incidence and self-reported behavioral data were used to make estimates of reduction in HIV incidence among study participants. The average annual cost to provide the intervention to 10 000 STD clinic clients was estimated to be US$447 005, with a cost per client of US$43.30. This expenditure would result in an average of 27.69 HIV infections averted, with an average savings from averted medical costs of US$5 544 408. The number of quality adjusted life years saved averaged 387.61, with a cost per HIV infection averted of US$21 486. This brief behavioral intervention was found to be feasible and cost-saving when targeted to male STD clinic clients at high risk of contracting and transmitting infections, indicating that this strategy should be considered for inclusion in HIV prevention programming.

  4. A Depth Video-based Human Detection and Activity Recognition using Multi-features and Embedded Hidden Markov Models for Health Care Monitoring Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Jalal

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increase in number of elderly people who are living independently needs especial care in the form of healthcare monitoring systems. Recent advancements in depth video technologies have made human activity recognition (HAR realizable for elderly healthcare applications. In this paper, a depth video-based novel method for HAR is presented using robust multi-features and embedded Hidden Markov Models (HMMs to recognize daily life activities of elderly people living alone in indoor environment such as smart homes. In the proposed HAR framework, initially, depth maps are analyzed by temporal motion identification method to segment human silhouettes from noisy background and compute depth silhouette area for each activity to track human movements in a scene. Several representative features, including invariant, multi-view differentiation and spatiotemporal body joints features were fused together to explore gradient orientation change, intensity differentiation, temporal variation and local motion of specific body parts. Then, these features are processed by the dynamics of their respective class and learned, modeled, trained and recognized with specific embedded HMM having active feature values. Furthermore, we construct a new online human activity dataset by a depth sensor to evaluate the proposed features. Our experiments on three depth datasets demonstrated that the proposed multi-features are efficient and robust over the state of the art features for human action and activity recognition.

  5. Automatic Traffic Data Collection under Varying Lighting and Temperature Conditions in Multimodal Environments: Thermal versus Visible Spectrum Video-Based Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Fu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Vision-based monitoring systems using visible spectrum (regular video cameras can complement or substitute conventional sensors and provide rich positional and classification data. Although new camera technologies, including thermal video sensors, may improve the performance of digital video-based sensors, their performance under various conditions has rarely been evaluated at multimodal facilities. The purpose of this research is to integrate existing computer vision methods for automated data collection and evaluate the detection, classification, and speed measurement performance of thermal video sensors under varying lighting and temperature conditions. Thermal and regular video data was collected simultaneously under different conditions across multiple sites. Although the regular video sensor narrowly outperformed the thermal sensor during daytime, the performance of the thermal sensor is significantly better for low visibility and shadow conditions, particularly for pedestrians and cyclists. Retraining the algorithm on thermal data yielded an improvement in the global accuracy of 48%. Thermal speed measurements were consistently more accurate than for the regular video at daytime and nighttime. Thermal video is insensitive to lighting interference and pavement temperature, solves issues associated with visible light cameras for traffic data collection, and offers other benefits such as privacy, insensitivity to glare, storage space, and lower processing requirements.

  6. Evaluation of a video-based Internet intervention as preparation for inpatient psychosomatic rehabilitation: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Jan; Beutel, Manfred E; Gerzymisch, Katharina; Schulz, Dirk; Siepmann, Martin; Knickenberg, Rudolf J; Schmädeke, Stefan; Ferdinand, Peter; Zwerenz, Rüdiger

    2016-06-13

    Patients' treatment expectations are a key factor in psychotherapy. Several studies have linked higher expectations to better treatment success. Therefore, we want to evaluate the impact of a targeted video-based intervention on patients' expectations and the treatment success of inpatient rehabilitation. All patients who will be referred to inpatient psychosomatic rehabilitation in three clinics will receive a study flyer with information about how to log in to the study platform together with the usual clinic information leaflet. Patients will receive the study information and informed consent upon login and will be randomized into the intervention or the control group. The intervention group (n = 394) will get access to our virtual online clinic, containing several videos about inpatient rehabilitation, until their admission to inpatient rehabilitation. The control group (n = 394) will receive no special treatment preparation. Questionnaires will be given at study inclusion (T0), two weeks before admission to (T1), and at the end of (T2) inpatient rehabilitation. The primary outcome is the outcome expectancy measured with the Credibility Expectancy Questionnaire at T1. Secondary outcomes include treatment motivation, mental health, work ability, depression, anxiety, and satisfaction with and usage of the Internet platform. We expect the intervention group to benefit from the additional preparation concerning their outcome expectancy. If successful, this approach could be used in the future to enhance the efficacy of inpatient rehabilitation. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02532881 . Registered on 25 August 2015.

  7. Tulsa 1000: a naturalistic study protocol for multilevel assessment and outcome prediction in a large psychiatric sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victor, Teresa A; Khalsa, Sahib S; Simmons, W Kyle; Feinstein, Justin S; Savitz, Jonathan; Aupperle, Robin L; Yeh, Hung-Wen; Bodurka, Jerzy; Paulus, Martin P

    2018-01-24

    Although neuroscience has made tremendous progress towards understanding the basic neural circuitry underlying important processes such as attention, memory and emotion, little progress has been made in applying these insights to psychiatric populations to make clinically meaningful treatment predictions. The overall aim of the Tulsa 1000 (T-1000) study is to use the NIMH Research Domain Criteria framework in order to establish a robust and reliable dimensional set of variables that quantifies the positive and negative valence, cognition and arousal domains, including interoception, to generate clinically useful treatment predictions. The T-1000 is a naturalistic study that will recruit, assess and longitudinally follow 1000 participants, including healthy controls and treatment-seeking individuals with mood, anxiety, substance use and eating disorders. Each participant will undergo interview, behavioural, biomarker and neuroimaging assessments over the course of 1 year. The study goal is to determine how disorders of affect, substance use and eating behaviour organise across different levels of analysis (molecules, genes, cells, neural circuits, physiology, behaviour and self-report) to predict symptom severity, treatment outcome and long-term prognosis. The data will be used to generate computational models based on Bayesian statistics. The final end point of this multilevel latent variable analysis will be standardised assessments that can be developed into clinical tools to help clinicians predict outcomes and select the best intervention for each individual, thereby reducing the burden of mental disorders, and taking psychiatry a step closer towards personalised medicine. Ethical approval was obtained from Western Institutional Review Board screening protocol #20101611. The dissemination plan includes informing health professionals of results for clinical practice, submitting results to journals for peer-reviewed publication, presenting results at national

  8. Do personality traits assessed on medical school admission predict exit performance? A UK-wide longitudinal cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, R K; Dowell, J; Ayansina, D; Cleland, J A

    2017-05-01

    Traditional methods of assessing personality traits in medical school selection have been heavily criticised. To address this at the point of selection, "non-cognitive" tests were included in the UK Clinical Aptitude Test, the most widely-used aptitude test in UK medical education (UKCAT: http://www.ukcat.ac.uk/ ). We examined the predictive validity of these non-cognitive traits with performance during and on exit from medical school. We sampled all students graduating in 2013 from the 30 UKCAT consortium medical schools. Analysis included: candidate demographics, UKCAT non-cognitive scores, medical school performance data-the Educational Performance Measure (EPM) and national exit situational judgement test (SJT) outcomes. We examined the relationships between these variables and SJT and EPM scores. Multilevel modelling was used to assess the relationships adjusting for confounders. The 3343 students who had taken the UKCAT non-cognitive tests and had both EPM and SJT data were entered into the analysis. There were four types of non-cognitive test: (1) libertariancommunitarian, (2) NACE-narcissism, aloofness, confidence and empathy, (3) MEARS-self-esteem, optimism, control, self-discipline, emotional-nondefensiveness (END) and faking, (4) an abridged version of 1 and 2 combined. Multilevel regression showed that, after correcting for demographic factors, END predicted SJT and EPM decile. Aloofness and empathy in NACE were predictive of SJT score. This is the first large-scale study examining the relationship between performance on non-cognitive selection tests and medical school exit assessments. The predictive validity of these tests was limited, and the relationships revealed do not fit neatly with theoretical expectations. This study does not support their use in selection.

  9. A new air quality monitoring and early warning system: Air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhongshan; Wang, Jian

    2017-10-01

    Air pollution in many countries is worsening with industrialization and urbanization, resulting in climate change and affecting people's health, thus, making the work of policymakers more difficult. It is therefore both urgent and necessary to establish amore scientific air quality monitoring and early warning system to evaluate the degree of air pollution objectively, and predict pollutant concentrations accurately. However, the integration of air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction to establish an air quality system is not common. In this paper, we propose a new air quality monitoring and early warning system, including an assessment module and forecasting module. In the air quality assessment module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the main pollutants and evaluate the degree of air pollution more scientifically. In the air pollutant concentration prediction module, a novel hybridization model combining complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, a modified cuckoo search and differential evolution algorithm, and an Elman neural network, is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of six main air pollutant concentrations. To verify the effectiveness of this system, pollutant data for two cities in China are used. The result of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the major air pollutants in Xi'an and Jinan are PM 10 and PM 2.5 respectively, and that the air quality of Xi'an is better than that of Jinan. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed hybrid model is remarkably superior to all benchmark models on account of its higher prediction accuracy and stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

    2018-02-01

    Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

  11. Assessment of models predicting irradiation effects on tensile properties of reactor pressure vessel steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineau, L.; Landron, C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis of tensile data acquired as part of the French Reactor Vessel Surveillance Program (RVSP) is produced. This program contains amongst other mechanical tests, tensile tests at 20 and 300 C degrees on non irradiated base metals and at 300 C degrees only on irradiated materials. It shows that irradiation leads to an increase in the yield strength and a decrease in the strain hardening. The exploitation of tensile results has permitted to express a relationship between yield strength increase measured and fluence value, as well as between strain hardening decrease and yield strength evolution. The use of these relations in the aim at predicting evolution of tensile properties with irradiation has then permitted to propose a methodology to model entire stress-strain curves of irradiated base metal only based on the non irradiated stress-strain curve. These predictions were successfully compared with an experimental standard case. (authors)

  12. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  13. Software Systems for Prediction and Immediate Assessment of Emergency Situations on Municipalities Territories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poluyan, L. V.; Syutkina, E. V.; Guryev, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The comparative analysis of key features of the software systems TOXI+Risk and ALOHA is presented. The authors made a comparison of domestic (TOXI+Risk) and foreign (ALOHA) software systems allowing to give the quantitative assessment of impact areas (pressure, thermal, toxic) in case of hypothetical emergencies in potentially hazardous objects of the oil, gas, chemical, petrochemical and oil-processing industry. Both software systems use different mathematical models for assessment of the release rate of a chemically hazardous substance from a storage tank and its evaporation. The comparison of the accuracy of definition of impact areas made by both software systems to verify the examples shows good convergence of both products. The analysis results showed that the ALOHA software can be actively used for forecasting and immediate assessment of emergency situations, assessment of damage as a result of emergencies on the territories of municipalities.

  14. Prediction of Post-stroke Falls by Quantitative Assessment of Balance

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Hyun Haeng; Jung, Se Hee

    2017-01-01

    Objective To evaluate characteristics of the postural instability in patients with stroke and to present a prediction model of post-stroke falls. Methods Patients with a first-ever stroke who had been evaluated by the Balance Master (BM) at post-stroke 3 months (?1 month) between August 2011 and December 2015 were enrolled. Parameters for the postural instability, such as the weight bearing asymmetry (WBA) and postural sway velocity (PSV), were obtained. The fall events in daily lives were as...

  15. Predicted cancer risks induced by computed tomography examinations during childhood, by a quantitative risk assessment approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journy, Neige; Ancelet, Sophie; Rehel, Jean-Luc; Mezzarobba, Myriam; Aubert, Bernard; Laurier, Dominique; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2014-03-01

    The potential adverse effects associated with exposure to ionizing radiation from computed tomography (CT) in pediatrics must be characterized in relation to their expected clinical benefits. Additional epidemiological data are, however, still awaited for providing a lifelong overview of potential cancer risks. This paper gives predictions of potential lifetime risks of cancer incidence that would be induced by CT examinations during childhood in French routine practices in pediatrics. Organ doses were estimated from standard radiological protocols in 15 hospitals. Excess risks of leukemia, brain/central nervous system, breast and thyroid cancers were predicted from dose-response models estimated in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors' dataset and studies of medical exposures. Uncertainty in predictions was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations. This approach predicts that 100,000 skull/brain scans in 5-year-old children would result in eight (90 % uncertainty interval (UI) 1-55) brain/CNS cancers and four (90 % UI 1-14) cases of leukemia and that 100,000 chest scans would lead to 31 (90 % UI 9-101) thyroid cancers, 55 (90 % UI 20-158) breast cancers, and one (90 % UI risks without exposure). Compared to background risks, radiation-induced risks would be low for individuals throughout life, but relative risks would be highest in the first decades of life. Heterogeneity in the radiological protocols across the hospitals implies that 5-10 % of CT examinations would be related to risks 1.4-3.6 times higher than those for the median doses. Overall excess relative risks in exposed populations would be 1-10 % depending on the site of cancer and the duration of follow-up. The results emphasize the potential risks of cancer specifically from standard CT examinations in pediatrics and underline the necessity of optimization of radiological protocols.

  16. Assessment of liver volume with spiral computerized tomography scanning: predicting liver volume by age and height

    OpenAIRE

    Madhu Sharma; Abhishek Singh; Shewtank Goel; Setu Satani; Kavita Mudgil

    2016-01-01

    Background: Estimation of liver size has critical clinical implication. Precise knowledge of liver dimensions and volume is prerequisite for clinical assessment of liver disorders. Liver span as measured by palpation and USG is prone to inter-observer variability and poor repeatability. The aim was to assess the normal liver volume of healthy adults using spiral computed tomography scans and to observe its relationship with various body indices. Methods: In this prospective study, all the...

  17. Robustness and prediction accuracy of machine learning for objective visual quality assessment

    OpenAIRE

    HINES, ANDREW

    2014-01-01

    PUBLISHED Lisbon, Portugal Machine Learning (ML) is a powerful tool to support the development of objective visual quality assessment metrics, serving as a substitute model for the perceptual mechanisms acting in visual quality appreciation. Nevertheless, the reli- ability of ML-based techniques within objective quality as- sessment metrics is often questioned. In this study, the ro- bustness of ML in supporting objective quality assessment is investigated, specific...

  18. Safety analysis methodology with assessment of the impact of the prediction errors of relevant parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galia, A.V.

    2011-01-01

    The best estimate plus uncertainty approach (BEAU) requires the use of extensive resources and therefore it is usually applied for cases in which the available safety margin obtained with a conservative methodology can be questioned. Outside the BEAU methodology, there is not a clear approach on how to deal with the issue of considering the uncertainties resulting from prediction errors in the safety analyses performed for licensing submissions. However, the regulatory document RD-310 mentions that the analysis method shall account for uncertainties in the analysis data and models. A possible approach is presented, that is simple and reasonable, representing just the author's views, to take into account the impact of prediction errors and other uncertainties when performing safety analysis in line with regulatory requirements. The approach proposes taking into account the prediction error of relevant parameters. Relevant parameters would be those plant parameters that are surveyed and are used to initiate the action of a mitigating system or those that are representative of the most challenging phenomena for the integrity of a fission barrier. Examples of the application of the methodology are presented involving a comparison between the results with the new approach and a best estimate calculation during the blowdown phase for two small breaks in a generic CANDU 6 station. The calculations are performed with the CATHENA computer code. (author)

  19. Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: use of the patient-generated subjective global assessment in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lisa; Watanabe, Sharon; Fainsinger, Robin; Lau, Francis; Ghosh, Sunita; Quan, Hue; Atkins, Marlis; Fassbender, Konrad; Downing, G Michael; Baracos, Vickie

    2010-10-01

    To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer. A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0. A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS. We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

  20. Integration of artificial intelligence methods and life cycle assessment to predict energy output and environmental impacts of paddy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabavi-Pelesaraei, Ashkan; Rafiee, Shahin; Mohtasebi, Seyed Saeid; Hosseinzadeh-Bandbafha, Homa; Chau, Kwok-Wing

    2018-08-01

    Prediction of agricultural energy output and environmental impacts play important role in energy management and conservation of environment as it can help us to evaluate agricultural energy efficiency, conduct crops production system commissioning, and detect and diagnose faults of crop production system. Agricultural energy output and environmental impacts can be readily predicted by artificial intelligence (AI), owing to the ease of use and adaptability to seek optimal solutions in a rapid manner as well as the use of historical data to predict future agricultural energy use pattern under constraints. This paper conducts energy output and environmental impact prediction of paddy production in Guilan province, Iran based on two AI methods, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The amounts of energy input and output are 51,585.61MJkg -1 and 66,112.94MJkg -1 , respectively, in paddy production. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate environmental impacts of paddy production. Results show that, in paddy production, in-farm emission is a hotspot in global warming, acidification and eutrophication impact categories. ANN model with 12-6-8-1 structure is selected as the best one for predicting energy output. The correlation coefficient (R) varies from 0.524 to 0.999 in training for energy input and environmental impacts in ANN models. ANFIS model is developed based on a hybrid learning algorithm, with R for predicting output energy being 0.860 and, for environmental impacts, varying from 0.944 to 0.997. Results indicate that the multi-level ANFIS is a useful tool to managers for large-scale planning in forecasting energy output and environmental indices of agricultural production systems owing to its higher speed of computation processes compared to ANN model, despite ANN's higher accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Modification of the Feline-Ality™ Assessment and the Ability to Predict Adopted Cats’ Behaviors in Their New Homes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Emily; Gramann, Shannon; Drain, Natasha; Dolan, Emily; Slater, Margaret

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary While millions of cats enter animal shelters every year, only 11.5% of pet cats are obtained from a shelter in the United States. Previous research has indicated that unrealistic expectations set by adopters can increase the chances of an adopted cat returning to the shel