WorldWideScience

Sample records for vehicle stock model

  1. Motor vehicle stocks, scrappage, and sales

    OpenAIRE

    Alan Greenspan; Darrel Cohen

    1996-01-01

    This paper offers a framework for forecasting aggregate sales of new motor vehicles; this framework incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer ''preferences,'' new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, th...

  2. Statistical modelling of fish stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine

    1999-01-01

    for modelling the dynamics of a fish population is suggested. A new approach is introduced to analyse the sources of variation in age composition data, which is one of the most important sources of information in the cohort based models for estimation of stock abundancies and mortalities. The approach combines...... and it is argued that an approach utilising stochastic differential equations might be advantagous in fish stoch assessments....

  3. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  4. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  5. Hidden Markov Model for Stock Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The hidden Markov model (HMM is typically used to predict the hidden regimes of observation data. Therefore, this model finds applications in many different areas, such as speech recognition systems, computational molecular biology and financial market predictions. In this paper, we use HMM for stock selection. We first use HMM to make monthly regime predictions for the four macroeconomic variables: inflation (consumer price index (CPI, industrial production index (INDPRO, stock market index (S&P 500 and market volatility (VIX. At the end of each month, we calibrate HMM’s parameters for each of these economic variables and predict its regimes for the next month. We then look back into historical data to find the time periods for which the four variables had similar regimes with the forecasted regimes. Within those similar periods, we analyze all of the S&P 500 stocks to identify which stock characteristics have been well rewarded during the time periods and assign scores and corresponding weights for each of the stock characteristics. A composite score of each stock is calculated based on the scores and weights of its features. Based on this algorithm, we choose the 50 top ranking stocks to buy. We compare the performances of the portfolio with the benchmark index, S&P 500. With an initial investment of $100 in December 1999, over 15 years, in December 2014, our portfolio had an average gain per annum of 14.9% versus 2.3% for the S&P 500.

  6. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  7. Launch vehicle selection model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, Alex J.

    1990-01-01

    Over the next 50 years, humans will be heading for the Moon and Mars to build scientific bases to gain further knowledge about the universe and to develop rewarding space activities. These large scale projects will last many years and will require large amounts of mass to be delivered to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It will take a great deal of planning to complete these missions in an efficient manner. The planning of a future Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) will significantly impact the overall multi-year launching cost for the vehicle fleet depending upon when the HLLV will be ready for use. It is desirable to develop a model in which many trade studies can be performed. In one sample multi-year space program analysis, the total launch vehicle cost of implementing the program reduced from 50 percent to 25 percent. This indicates how critical it is to reduce space logistics costs. A linear programming model has been developed to answer such questions. The model is now in its second phase of development, and this paper will address the capabilities of the model and its intended uses. The main emphasis over the past year was to make the model user friendly and to incorporate additional realistic constraints that are difficult to represent mathematically. We have developed a methodology in which the user has to be knowledgeable about the mission model and the requirements of the payloads. We have found a representation that will cut down the solution space of the problem by inserting some preliminary tests to eliminate some infeasible vehicle solutions. The paper will address the handling of these additional constraints and the methodology for incorporating new costing information utilizing learning curve theory. The paper will review several test cases that will explore the preferred vehicle characteristics and the preferred period of construction, i.e., within the next decade, or in the first decade of the next century. Finally, the paper will explore the interaction

  8. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  9. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  10. A Global Stock and Bond Model

    OpenAIRE

    Connor, Gregory

    1996-01-01

    Factor models are now widely used to support asset selection decisions. Global asset allocation, the allocation between stocks versus bonds and among nations, usually relies instead on correlation analysis of international equity and bond indexes. It would be preferable to have a single integrated framework for both asset selection and asset allocation. This framework would require a factor model applicable at an asset or country level, as well as at a global level,...

  11. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  12. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  13. Vehicle rollover sensor test modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McCoy, R.W.; Chou, C.C.; Velde, R. van de; Twisk, D.; Schie, C. van

    2007-01-01

    A computational model of a mid-size sport utility vehicle was developed using MADYMO. The model includes a detailed description of the suspension system and tire characteristics that incorporated the Delft-Tyre magic formula description. The model was correlated by simulating a vehicle suspension

  14. Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2003-06-01

    We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

  15. Stocks, Flows, and Distribution of Critical Metals in Embedded Electronics in Passenger Vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo, Eliette; Løvik, Amund N; Wäger, Patrick; Widmer, Rolf; Lonka, Radek; Müller, Daniel B

    2017-02-07

    One of the major applications of critical metals (CMs) is in electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), which is increasingly embedded in other products, notably passenger vehicles. However, recycling strategies for future CM quantities in end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) are poorly understood, mainly due to a limited understating of the complexity of automotive embedded EEE. We introduce a harmonization of the network structure of automotive electronics that enables a comprehensive quantification of CMs in all embedded EEE in a vehicle. This network is combined with a material flow analysis along the vehicle lifecycle in Switzerland to quantify the stocks and flows of Ag, Au, Pd, Ru, Dy, La, Nd, and Co in automotive embedded EEE. In vehicles in use, we calculated 5 -2 +3 t precious metals in controllers embedded in all vehicle types and 220 -60 +90 t rare earth elements (REE); found mainly in five electric motors: alternator, starter, radiator-fan and electronic power steering motor embedded in conventional passenger vehicles and drive motor/generator embedded in hybrid and electric vehicles. Dismantling these devices before ELV shredding, as well as postshredder treatment of automobile shredder residue may increase the recovery of CMs from ELVs. Environmental and economic implications of such recycling strategies must be considered.

  16. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-31

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison

  17. Quantum Brownian motion model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Guo, Hong

    2016-06-01

    It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysical framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single stocks into a reservoir consisting of many quantum harmonic oscillators and their stock index into a typical quantum open system-a quantum Brownian particle. In particular, the irrationality of stock transactions is quantitatively considered as the Planck constant within Heisenberg's uncertainty relationship of quantum mechanics in an analogous manner. We analyze real stock data of Shanghai Stock Exchange of China and investigate fat-tail phenomena and non-Markovian behaviors of the stock index with the assistance of the quantum Brownian motion model, thereby interpreting and studying the limitations of the classical Brownian motion model for the efficient market hypothesis from a new perspective of quantum open system dynamics.

  18. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

  19. Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

  20. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  1. Connecting single-stock assessment models through correlated survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Nielsen, Anders; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    2017-01-01

    times. We propose a simple alternative. In three case studies each with two stocks, we improve the single-stock models, as measured by Akaike information criterion, by adding correlation in the cohort survival. To limit the number of parameters, the correlations are parameterized through...... the corresponding partial correlations. We consider six models where the partial correlation matrix between stocks follows a band structure ranging from independent assessments to complex correlation structures. Further, a simulation study illustrates the importance of handling correlated data sufficiently...... by investigating the coverage of confidence intervals for estimated fishing mortality. The results presented will allow managers to evaluate stock statuses based on a more accurate evaluation of model output uncertainty. The methods are directly implementable for stocks with an analytical assessment and do...

  2. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  3. Flexible building stock modelling with array-programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøgger, Morten; Wittchen, Kim Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    Many building stock models employ archetype-buildings in order to capture the essential characteristics of a diverse building stock. However, these models often require multiple archetypes, which make them inflexible. This paper proposes an array-programming based model, which calculates the heat...... tend to overestimate potential energy-savings, if we do not consider these discrepancies. The proposed model makes it possible to compute and visualize potential energy-savings in a flexible and transparent way....

  4. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  5. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  6. Forecasting Analysis of Shanghai Stock Index Based on ARIMA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Chenggang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction and analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index is conducive for investors to investing in the stock market, and providing investors with reference. This paper selects Shanghai Composite Index monthly closing price from Jan, 2005 to Oct, 2016 to construct ARIMA model. This paper carries on the forecast of the last three monthly closing price of Shanghai Stock Index that have occurred, and compared it with the actual value, which tests the accuracy and feasibility of the model in the short term Shanghai Stock Index forecast. At last, this paper uses the ARIMA model to forecast the Shanghai Composite Index closing price of the last two months in 2016.

  7. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  8. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  9. Modelling energy demand in the Norwegian building stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sartori, Igor

    2008-07-15

    Energy demand in the building stock in Norway represents about 40% of the final energy consumption, of which 22% goes to the residential sector and 18% to the service sector. In Norway there is a strong dependency on electricity for heating purposes, with electricity covering about 80% of the energy demand in buildings. The building sector can play an important role in the achievement of a more sustainable energy system. The work performed in the articles presented in this thesis investigates various aspects related to the energy demand in the building sector, both in singular cases and in the stock as a whole. The work performed in the first part of this thesis on development and survey of case studies provided background knowledge that was then used in the second part, on modelling the entire stock. In the first part, a literature survey of case studies showed that, in a life cycle perspective, the energy used in the operating phase of buildings is the single most important factor. Design of low-energy buildings is then beneficial and should be pursued, even though it implies a somewhat higher embodied energy. A case study was performed on a school building. First, a methodology using a Monte Carlo method in the calibration process was explored. Then, the calibrated model of the school was used to investigate measures for the achievement of high energy efficiency standard through renovation work. In the second part, a model was developed to study the energy demand in a scenario analysis. The results showed the robustness of policies that included conservation measures against the conflicting effects of the other policies. Adopting conservation measures on a large scale showed the potential to reduce both electricity and total energy demand from present day levels while the building stock keeps growing. The results also highlighted the inertia to change of the building stock, due to low activity levels compared to the stock size. It also became clear that a deeper

  10. An econometric model of the South African stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

  11. Modeling stock return distributions with a quantum harmonic oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, K.; Choi, M. Y.; Dai, B.; Sohn, S.; Yang, B.

    2017-11-01

    We propose a quantum harmonic oscillator as a model for the market force which draws a stock return from short-run fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium. The stochastic equation governing our model is transformed into a Schrödinger equation, the solution of which features “quantized” eigenfunctions. Consequently, stock returns follow a mixed χ distribution, which describes Gaussian and non-Gaussian features. Analyzing the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index, we demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional stochastic process models, e.g., the geometric Brownian motion and the Heston model, with smaller fitting errors and better goodness-of-fit statistics. In addition, making use of analogy, we provide an economic rationale of the physics concepts such as the eigenstate, eigenenergy, and angular frequency, which sheds light on the relationship between finance and econophysics literature.

  12. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  13. MODELING OF THE TRACK AND ROLLING STOCK INTERACTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Khalipova

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Interaction of system’s elements of "carriage–track" modelling requires consideration of various criteria, it also requires analysis of many uncertainty and randomness factors’ influence on the basic parameters to ensure optimal or rational parameters of the system. The researching of interactions’ process requires new theoretical approaches to formulation of objectives, based on a generalization of existing modeling approaches. The purpose of this work is development of interaction models between track and rolling stock based on multiple structures of objects. Methodology. Dedicated and formed the main evaluation criteria of dynamic interaction between track and rolling stock optimization - quality assurance and safety of transportation process, improving of their efficiency and reducing of prime cost’s. Based on vector optimization methods, proposed model of rolling stock and track’s elements interaction. For the synthesis of the model used mathematical machine of multiple objects structures. Findings. Generalized approaches to modeling in the interaction of rolling stock and track for different structural elements of the system under different exploitation conditions. This theoretical approach demonstrated on the examples of modeling of passenger and freight cars with track under different exploitation conditions. Originality. Proposed theoretical approach to the problem of track and rolling stock interaction, based on a synthesis of existing models by using of multiple objects structures. Practical value. Using of proposed model allows to structure key data and rational parameters of rolling stock and track interaction’s modeling and to formulate optimal and rational parameters of the system, to determine the effective exploitation parameters and measurement system for rational use of infrastructure.

  14. The Influence of the Number of Different Stocks on the Levy-Levy-Solomon Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, R.

    The stock market model of Levy, Levy, Solomon is simulated for more than one stock to analyze the behavior for a large number of investors. Small markets can lead to realistic looking prices for one and more stocks. A large number of investors leads to a semi-regular fashion simulating one stock. For many stocks, three of the stocks are semi-regular and dominant, the rest is chaotic. Aside from that we changed the utility function and checked the results.

  15. Test Of Capital Asset Pricing Model On Stocks At Karachi Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbab Khalid Cheema

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically test the single-factor CAPM developed by Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 and others, which proposes that the expected returns of capital assets are dependent on their risk relative to the entire market which is quantified by a correlation co-efficient between asset returns and market returns. The test of 20 stocks at Karachi Stock Exchange have shown that though, the beta co-efficients are significant, their strength is considerably weak. Therefore, other factors which are unaccounted for in this model are important in determining risk and return. In addition, betas are less relevant in a volatile emerging capital markets like the KSE. Thus, the multi-factor models are better than the classical CAPM at determining the risk-return relationship. However, the single-factor CAPM remains in practice beacause of its simplicity.

  16. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  17. A Two Population Model for the Stock Market Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The development of the last year disaster in the Stock Markets all over the world gave rise to reconsidering the previous models used. It is clear that, even in an organized international or national context, large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur. This paper explores a two populations' model. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market) by following the main rules present, that is mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. The proposed model has special futures expressed by third order terms providing characteristic stationary points.

  18. A threshold model for Australian Stock Exchange equities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, William K.

    2005-02-01

    In this paper, we present a threshold model to describe the phenomena of zero return enhancement that is present in Australian Stock Exchange data. We examine the intraday behaviour of the ASX data and construct a new measure for the market activity using principal component analysis. We use this measure to create a business time scale that keeps the level of zero return enhancement constant throughout trading hours. Operating in this new time scale we fit the model to data for small and large time scales and find that the model affords an excellent approximation of the distribution of stock returns.

  19. Modeling Languages Refine Vehicle Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Cincinnati, Ohio s TechnoSoft Inc. is a leading provider of object-oriented modeling and simulation technology used for commercial and defense applications. With funding from Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts issued by Langley Research Center, the company continued development on its adaptive modeling language, or AML, originally created for the U.S. Air Force. TechnoSoft then created what is now known as its Integrated Design and Engineering Analysis Environment, or IDEA, which can be used to design a variety of vehicles and machinery. IDEA's customers include clients in green industries, such as designers for power plant exhaust filtration systems and wind turbines.

  20. A Comprehensive Model of Municipal Housing Stock Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muczyński Andrzej

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In many European countries there are still substantial housing needs which social landlords have to fulfill. Especially in countries with a shortage of affordable housing for underprivileged households, the effective and efficient management of the existing social housing stock, which includes technical, social, financial and tenure management activities on the strategic, tactical and operational level, is very important. The paper presents a comprehensive model of municipal housing stock management in the context of Polish conditions. This model was built by adapting the multidimensional concept of real estate management originally developed for commercial real estate portfolio management. It shows an integrative view of municipal housing stock management in Poland and contributes to the better organization and coordination of management activities and tasks in this area. The prepared model may be of interest to other countries where the functions of social landlords are mostly carried out directly by municipalities and their organizational units.

  1. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  2. A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

    2017-02-01

    A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

  3. A mathematical model for stock price forecasting | Ogwuche | West ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ) and the covariance (the volatility) of the change were computed leading to the formulation of the system of linear stochastic differential equations. To fit data to the model, changes in the prices of the stocks were studied for an average of 30 ...

  4. Artificial Neural Network versus Linear Models Forecasting Doha Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Adil; Elfaki, Faiz

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the instability of Doha stock market and develop forecasting models. Linear time series models are used and compared with a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network (ANN) namely Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Technique. It aims to establish the best useful model based on daily and monthly data which are collected from Qatar exchange for the period starting from January 2007 to January 2015. Proposed models are for the general index of Qatar stock exchange and also for the usages in other several sectors. With the help of these models, Doha stock market index and other various sectors were predicted. The study was conducted by using various time series techniques to study and analyze data trend in producing appropriate results. After applying several models, such as: Quadratic trend model, double exponential smoothing model, and ARIMA, it was concluded that ARIMA (2,2) was the most suitable linear model for the daily general index. However, ANN model was found to be more accurate than time series models.

  5. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  6. Equation-based model for the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O C; Atman, A P F; de Magalhães, A R Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  7. Equation-based model for the stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xavier, Paloma O. C.; Atman, A. P. F.; de Magalhães, A. R. Bosco

    2017-09-01

    We propose a stock market model which is investigated in the forms of difference and differential equations whose variables correspond to the demand or supply of each agent and to the price. In the model, agents are driven by the behavior of their trust contact network as well by fundamental analysis. By means of the deterministic version of the model, the connection between such drive mechanisms and the price is analyzed: imitation behavior promotes market instability, finitude of resources is associated to stock index stability, and high sensitivity to the fair price provokes price oscillations. Long-range correlations in the price temporal series and heavy-tailed distribution of returns are observed for the version of the model which considers different proposals for stochasticity of microeconomic and macroeconomic origins.

  8. A fuzzy logic model to forecast stock market momentum in Indonesia's property and real estate sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penawar, H. K.; Rustam, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The Capital market has the important role in Indonesia's economy. The capital market does not only support the economy of Indonesia but also being an indicator Indonesia's economy improvement. Something that has been traded in the capital market is stock (stock market). Nowadays, the stock market is full of uncertainty. That uncertainty values make predicting stock market is all that we have to do before we make a decision in the stock market. One that can be predicted in the stock market is momentum. To forecast stock market momentum, it can use fuzzy logic model. In the process of modeling, it will be used 14 days historical data that consisting the value of open, high, low, and close, to predict the next 5 days momentum categories. There are three momentum categories namely Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish. To illustrate the fuzzy logic model, we will use stocks data from several companies that listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in property and real estate sector.

  9. Modeling the time-changing dependence in stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frezza, Massimiliano

    2012-01-01

    The time-changing dependence in stock markets is investigated by assuming the multifractional process with random exponent (MPRE) as model for actual log price dynamics. By modeling its functional parameter S(t, ω) via the square root process (S.R.) a twofold aim is obtained. From one hand both the main financial and statistical properties shown by the estimated S(t) are captured by surrogates, on the other hand this capability reveals able to model the time-changing dependence shown by stocks or indexes. In particular, a new dynamical approach to interpreter market mechanisms is given. Empirical evidences are offered by analysing the behaviour of the daily closing prices of a very known index, the Industrial Average Dow Jones (DJIA), beginning on March,1990 and ending on February, 2005.

  10. A CcP model of the stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimshon Bichler

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Most explanations of stock market booms and busts are based on contrasting the underlying ‘fundamental’ logic of the economy with the exogenous, non-economic factors that presumably distort it. Our paper offers a radically different model, examining the stock market not from the mechanical viewpoint of a distorted economy, but from the dialectical perspective of capitalized power. The model demonstrates that (1 the valuation of equities represents capitalized power; (2 capitalized power is dialectically intertwined with systemic fear; and (3 systemic fear and capitalized power are mediated through strategic sabotage. This triangular model, we posit, can offer a basis for examining the asymptotes, or limits, of capitalized power and the ways in which these asymptotes relate to the historical and ongoing transformation of the capitalist mode of power.

  11. Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian Wu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for the projection of Chinese vehicle stocks and road vehicle energy demand through 2050 based on low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios. To derive a gross-domestic product (GDP-dependent Gompertz function, Chinese GDP is estimated using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE model. The Gompertz function is estimated using historical data on vehicle development trends in North America, Pacific Rim and Europe to overcome the problem of insufficient long-running data on Chinese vehicle ownership. Results indicate that the number of projected vehicle stocks for 2050 is 300, 455 and 463 million for low-, medium-, and high-growth scenarios respectively. Furthermore, the growth in China’s vehicle stock will increase beyond the inflection point of Gompertz curve by 2020, but will not reach saturation point during the period 2014–2050. Of major road vehicle categories, cars are the largest energy consumers, followed by trucks and buses. Growth in Chinese vehicle demand is primarily determined by per capita GDP. Vehicle saturation levels solely influence the shape of the Gompertz curve and population growth weakly affects vehicle demand. Projected total energy consumption of road vehicles in 2050 is 380, 575 and 586 million tonnes of oil equivalent for each scenario.

  12. Comparing Neural Networks and ARMA Models in Artificial Stock Market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krtek, Jiří; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 28 (2011), s. 53-65 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * vector ARMA * artificial market Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/krtek-comparing neural networks and arma models in artificial stock market.pdf

  13. Generalized Bogoliubov Polariton Model: An Application to Stock Exchange Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anh, Chu Thuy; Anh, Truong Thi Ngoc; Lan, Nguyen Tri; Viet, Nguyen Ai

    2016-01-01

    A generalized Bogoliubov method for investigation non-simple and complex systems was developed. We take two branch polariton Hamiltonian model in second quantization representation and replace the energies of quasi-particles by two distribution functions of research objects. Application to stock exchange market was taken as an example, where the changing the form of return distribution functions from Boltzmann-like to Gaussian-like was studied. (paper)

  14. Residential building stocks and flows as dynamic systems: Chilean dwelling stock and energy modeling, including earthquakes.

    OpenAIRE

    Gallardo, Carla

    2012-01-01

    The building sector comprises a very important part of each country s economy, playing an important role in the consumption of resources and energy. In practice there is little knowledge on how the building stock develops. It is useful then to understand the dynamics and the metabolism of the built environment. Research on building stocks, predominantly on the residential sector, has been performed mainly for developed countries. There is little or none research on building stock for developi...

  15. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  16. Space Vehicle Reliability Modeling in DIORAMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tornga, Shawn Robert [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-12

    When modeling system performance of space based detection systems it is important to consider spacecraft reliability. As space vehicles age the components become prone to failure for a variety of reasons such as radiation damage. Additionally, some vehicles may lose the ability to maneuver once they exhaust fuel supplies. Typically failure is divided into two categories: engineering mistakes and technology surprise. This document will report on a method of simulating space vehicle reliability in the DIORAMA framework.

  17. Application of Markowitz Model on Romanian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zavera Ioana Coralia

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Performance evaluation of financial instruments has become a concern for more and more economists, while security trading activities have developed over time. “Modern portfolio theory” comprises statistical and mathematical models which describe various ways in order to evaluate and especially analyse profitability and risk of these portfolios. This article offers an application of this type of model on Romanian stock market, the Markowitz model, by focusing on portfolios comprising three securities, and determining the efficient frontier and the minimum variance portfolio.

  18. Modeling Aggregate Hourly Energy Consumption in a Regional Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Kipping

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Sound estimates of future heat and electricity demand with high temporal and spatial resolution are needed for energy system planning, grid design, and evaluating demand-side management options and polices on regional and national levels. In this study, smart meter data on electricity consumption in buildings are combined with cross-sectional building information to model hourly electricity consumption within the household and service sectors on a regional basis in Norway. The same modeling approach is applied to model aggregate hourly district heat consumption in three different consumer groups located in Oslo. A comparison of modeled and metered hourly energy consumption shows that hourly variations and aggregate consumption per county and year are reproduced well by the models. However, for some smaller regions, modeled annual electricity consumption is over- or underestimated by more than 20%. Our results indicate that the presented method is useful for modeling the current and future hourly energy consumption of a regional building stock, but that larger and more detailed training datasets are required to improve the models, and more detailed building stock statistics on regional level are needed to generate useful estimates on aggregate regional energy consumption.

  19. Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javed Bin Kamal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

  20. Forecasting Performance of Asymmetric GARCH Stock Market Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojin Lee

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the asymmetry between positive and negative returns in their effect on conditional variance of the stock market index and incorporate the characteristics to form an out-of-sample volatility forecast. Contrary to prior evidence, however, the results in this paper suggest that no asymmetric GARCH model is superior to basic GARCH(1,1 model. It is our prior knowledge that, for equity returns, it is unlikely that positive and negative shocks have the same impact on the volatility. In order to reflect this intuition, we implement three diagnostic tests for volatility models: the Sign Bias Test, the Negative Size Bias Test, and the Positive Size Bias Test and the tests against the alternatives of QGARCH and GJR-GARCH. The asymmetry test results indicate that the sign and the size of the unexpected return shock do not influence current volatility differently which contradicts our presumption that there are asymmetric effects in the stock market volatility. This result is in line with various diagnostic tests which are designed to determine whether the GARCH(1,1 volatility estimates adequately represent the data. The diagnostic tests in section 2 indicate that the GARCH(1,1 model for weekly KOSPI returns is robust to the misspecification test. We also investigate two representative asymmetric GARCH models, QGARCH and GJR-GARCH model, for our out-of-sample forecasting performance. The out-of-sample forecasting ability test reveals that no single model is clearly outperforming. It is seen that the GJR-GARCH and QGARCH model give mixed results in forecasting ability on all four criteria across all forecast horizons considered. Also, the predictive accuracy test of Diebold and Mariano based on both absolute and squared prediction errors suggest that the forecasts from the linear and asymmetric GARCH models need not be significantly different from each other.

  1. Managing critical materials with a technology-specific stocks and flows model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Jonathan; Steinberger, Julia K; Dawson, David A; Purnell, Phil; Roelich, Katy

    2014-01-21

    The transition to low carbon infrastructure systems required to meet climate change mitigation targets will involve an unprecedented roll-out of technologies reliant upon materials not previously widespread in infrastructure. Many of these materials (including lithium and rare earth metals) are at risk of supply disruption. To ensure the future sustainability and resilience of infrastructure, circular economy policies must be crafted to manage these critical materials effectively. These policies can only be effective if supported by an understanding of the material demands of infrastructure transition and what reuse and recycling options are possible given the future availability of end-of-life stocks. This Article presents a novel, enhanced stocks and flows model for the dynamic assessment of material demands resulting from infrastructure transitions. By including a hierarchical, nested description of infrastructure technologies, their components, and the materials they contain, this model can be used to quantify the effectiveness of recovery at both a technology remanufacturing and reuse level and a material recycling level. The model's potential is demonstrated on a case study on the roll-out of electric vehicles in the UK forecast by UK Department of Energy and Climate Change scenarios. The results suggest policy action should be taken to ensure Li-ion battery recycling infrastructure is in place by 2025 and NdFeB motor magnets should be designed for reuse. This could result in a reduction in primary demand for lithium of 40% and neodymium of 70%.

  2. Models Supporting Trajectory Planning in Autonomous Vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Erik

    2018-01-01

    Autonomous vehicles have the potential to drastically improve the safety, efficiency and cost of transportation. Instead of a driver, an autonomous vehicle is controlled by an algorithm, offering improved consistency and the potential to eliminate human error from driving: by far the most common cause of accidents. Data collected from different types of sensors, along with prior information such as maps, are used to build models of the surrounding traffic scene, encoding relevant aspects of t...

  3. Biomass models to estimate carbon stocks for hardwood tree species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz-Peinado, R.; Montero, G.; Rio, M. del

    2012-11-01

    To estimate forest carbon pools from forest inventories it is necessary to have biomass models or biomass expansion factors. In this study, tree biomass models were developed for the main hardwood forest species in Spain: Alnus glutinosa, Castanea sativa, Ceratonia siliqua, Eucalyptus globulus, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus angustifolia, Olea europaea var. sylvestris, Populus x euramericana, Quercus canariensis, Quercus faginea, Quercus ilex, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus suber. Different tree biomass components were considered: stem with bark, branches of different sizes, above and belowground biomass. For each species, a system of equations was fitted using seemingly unrelated regression, fulfilling the additivity property between biomass components. Diameter and total height were explored as independent variables. All models included tree diameter whereas for the majority of species, total height was only considered in the stem biomass models and in some of the branch models. The comparison of the new biomass models with previous models fitted separately for each tree component indicated an improvement in the accuracy of the models. A mean reduction of 20% in the root mean square error and a mean increase in the model efficiency of 7% in comparison with recently published models. So, the fitted models allow estimating more accurately the biomass stock in hardwood species from the Spanish National Forest Inventory data. (Author) 45 refs.

  4. Commentary on the 2010 model law "on joint-stock companies" for CIS member states

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2011-01-01

    Kogu ajakirjanumber keskendub SRÜ Parlamentidevahelise Assamblee mudelseadusele avalike aktsiaseltside kohta. Kommentaar ja mudelseaduse tekst. Model law on joint-stock companies (17.veebr, 1996, muudet. 2005)

  5. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  6. Modelling and Forecasting Stock Price Movements with Serially Dependent Determinants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasika Yatigammana

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The direction of price movements are analysed under an ordered probit framework, recognising the importance of accounting for discreteness in price changes. By extending the work of Hausman et al. (1972 and Yang and Parwada (2012,This paper focuses on improving the forecast performance of the model while infusing a more practical perspective by enhancing flexibility. This is achieved by extending the existing framework to generate short term multi period ahead forecasts for better decision making, whilst considering the serial dependence structure. This approach enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the model to future price changes, particularly targeting risk minimisation. Empirical evidence is provided, based on seven stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX. The prediction success varies between 78 and 91 per cent for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts for both the short term and long term.

  7. An Agent-Based Computational Model for China’s Stock Market and Stock Index Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Chuan Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an agent-based computational cross market model for Chinese equity market structure, which includes both stocks and CSI 300 index futures. In this model, we design several stocks and one index future to simulate this structure. This model allows heterogeneous investors to make investment decisions with restrictions including wealth, market trading mechanism, and risk management. Investors’ demands and order submissions are endogenously determined. Our model successfully reproduces several key features of the Chinese financial markets including spot-futures basis distribution, bid-ask spread distribution, volatility clustering, and long memory in absolute returns. Our model can be applied in cross market risk control, market mechanism design, and arbitrage strategies analysis.

  8. Electric Vehicle Modeling and Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-08-01

    7* * E L E C T R I C V E t I C L E S U L A T I 0 N VEHICLE CCNITANTS AgE: FRCNIAL AREA- i.eO SCUARE PETERS PAYLCAD PASS=270. KILOCRAMS FIXEC...34 1CC ,FdPPqFM qOA lFCRPAIt35x 71-C2AC CCEFFICIENT.,F5.Z,,15Xl3HFqCNTAL AQEA.,FS.Z,3.AH CSCUARE PETERS ,]13PAYLOAC PASS-j,.O 4CH KCILOCRAPS9/35XILHFIXED...SPO CALL TRP.EFFPFETAh,?AATT.VVhRRAR.8SPO.TSTP,1TSTP ,ETATETAI C 10 ICo . zec 9204 ppP.EQ.0.I ~,9ZOS ;2C 5 P pCT-p5PC6cRIquiijcR1Ij5 S3 E"’EXPE.0311.-1

  9. Study on Standard Fatigue Vehicle Load Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, H. Y.; Zhang, J. P.; Li, Y. H.

    2018-02-01

    Based on the measured data of truck from three artery expressways in Guangdong Province, the statistical analysis of truck weight was conducted according to axle number. The standard fatigue vehicle model applied to industrial areas in the middle and late was obtained, which adopted equivalence damage principle, Miner linear accumulation law, water discharge method and damage ratio theory. Compared with the fatigue vehicle model Specified by the current bridge design code, the proposed model has better applicability. It is of certain reference value for the fatigue design of bridge in China.

  10. An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Buti

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA, a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.

  11. 3-D model-based vehicle tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Jianguang; Tan, Tieniu; Hu, Weiming; Yang, Hao; Maybank, Steven J

    2005-10-01

    This paper aims at tracking vehicles from monocular intensity image sequences and presents an efficient and robust approach to three-dimensional (3-D) model-based vehicle tracking. Under the weak perspective assumption and the ground-plane constraint, the movements of model projection in the two-dimensional image plane can be decomposed into two motions: translation and rotation. They are the results of the corresponding movements of 3-D translation on the ground plane (GP) and rotation around the normal of the GP, which can be determined separately. A new metric based on point-to-line segment distance is proposed to evaluate the similarity between an image region and an instantiation of a 3-D vehicle model under a given pose. Based on this, we provide an efficient pose refinement method to refine the vehicle's pose parameters. An improved EKF is also proposed to track and to predict vehicle motion with a precise kinematics model. Experimental results with both indoor and outdoor data show that the algorithm obtains desirable performance even under severe occlusion and clutter.

  12. APPLICATION OF DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL VALUATION AT MACEDONIAN STOCK-EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Dividend discount model (DDM is the simplest model for valuing equities in finance. Many analysts belived that DDM is outmoded, but much of the intuition that drives Discounted Cash Flow (DCF valuation is embedded in the DDM model. There are also specific companies stocks where the DDM model remains a useful tool for estimating value. The basic task of these research is to examine if DDM models offer relevant and safe valuation of long-term securities at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE through the process of empirical valuation of random chosen stocks. This research helped us to identify problems in use of DDM valuation models at MSE, to determine causes for differences between the intrinsic values and the stock market prices and to determine basic parameters for implementation of valuation on Macedonian financial market. We find that DDM models are usefull only as additional tool beside relative and DCF stocks valuation at MSE.

  13. An Analysis and Implementation of the Hidden Markov Model to Technology Stock Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyet Nguyen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Future stock prices depend on many internal and external factors that are not easy to evaluate. In this paper, we use the Hidden Markov Model, (HMM, to predict a daily stock price of three active trading stocks: Apple, Google, and Facebook, based on their historical data. We first use the Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC to choose the numbers of states from HMM. We then use the models to predict close prices of these three stocks using both single observation data and multiple observation data. Finally, we use the predictions as signals for trading these stocks. The criteria tests’ results showed that HMM with two states worked the best among two, three and four states for the three stocks. Our results also demonstrate that the HMM outperformed the naïve method in forecasting stock prices. The results also showed that active traders using HMM got a higher return than using the naïve forecast for Facebook and Google stocks. The stock price prediction method has a significant impact on stock trading and derivative hedging.

  14. The Use of Indicators in Modified Historical Model to Estimate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottwald Radim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The article mentions several methods of a fundamental analysis used to value stocks. It primarily focuses on the historical model. This model enables undervalued, correctly valued and overvalued stocks to be identified. The model is further modified in the article, using selected accounting indicators. The modified model versions are applied to selected stocks in the SPAD segment, Prague Stock Exchange, within the 2005-2010 period. Empirical analysis is applied to a comparison of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and accuracy of stock intrinsic value estimates, both separately for each stock and accounting indicator. The comparisons of accuracy of the accounting indicator value estimates and the accuracy of the stock intrinsic value estimates are also done based on the length of applied time period. With respect to the obvious fierce competition between stock issuers within the financial markets, the model enables potential investors, who are to select from an extensive offer of stocks, to make better informed investment decisions.

  15. Testing the CAPM and Three Factors Model in China: Evidence from the Shanghai Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Weixi

    2015-01-01

    Since inception, China’s stock market has grown rapidly and has become one of the most important emerging markets in the world. However, many popular financial media depicts China’s stock market as irrational. Besides, empirical studies on asset pricing in China’s stock market do not provide a consistent conclusion for different periods. This study tests the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama-French Three Factors Model in Shanghai Stock Exchange, China. For validity test of the CAPM,...

  16. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  17. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Weighted Geometric Brownian Motion Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gayo Willy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi is the main stock index of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE. PSEi is computed using a weighted mean of the top 30 publicly traded companies in the Philippines, called component stocks. It provides a single value by which the performance of the Philippine stock market is measured. Unfortunately, these weights, which may vary for every trading day, are not disclosed by the PSE. In this paper, we propose a model of forecasting the PSEi by estimating the weights based on historical data and forecasting each component stock using Monte Carlo simulation based on a Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM assumption. The model performance is evaluated and its forecast compared is with the results using a direct GBM forecast of PSEi over different forecast periods. Results showed that the forecasts using WGBM will yield smaller error compared to direct GBM forecast of PSEi.

  18. An Integrated Rolling Stock Planning Model for the Copenhagen Suburban Passenger Railway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorlacius, Per; Larsen, Jesper; Laumanns, Marco

    A central issue for operators of passenger railways is providing sufficient number of seats for passengers while at the same time minimising operating costs. This is the task of rolling stock planning. Due to the large number of practical, railway specific requirements that a rolling stock plan has...... to take into account, rolling stock plans are often constructed in a step-by-step manner, taking some requirements into consideration in each step. This may make it difficult in the final step to produce a plan that is feasible with regard to all of the requirements and at the same time economically...... attractive. This paper proposes an integrated rolling stock planning model that simultaneously takes into account all practical requirements for rolling stock planning at DSB S-tog, the suburban passenger train operator of the City of Copenhagen. The model is then used to improve existing rolling stock plans...

  19. An integrated rolling stock planning model for the Copenhagen suburban passenger railway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorlacius, Per; Larsen, Jesper; Laumanns, Marco

    2015-01-01

    A central issue for operators of passenger railways is providing sufficient number of seats for passengers while at the same time minimising operating costs. This is the task of rolling stock planning. Due to the large number of practical, railway specific requirements that a rolling stock plan has...... to take into account, rolling stock plans are often constructed in a step-by-step manner, taking some requirements into consideration in each step. This may make it difficult in the final step to produce a plan that is feasible with regard to all of the requirements and at the same time economically...... attractive. This paper proposes an integrated rolling stock planning model that simultaneously takes into account all practical requirements for rolling stock planning at DSB S-tog, the suburban passenger train operator of the City of Copenhagen. The model is then used to improve existing rolling stock plans...

  20. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  1. Forecasting Volatility of Dhaka Stock Exchange: Linear Vs Non-linear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masudul Islam

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Prior information about a financial market is very essential for investor to invest money on parches share from the stock market which can strengthen the economy. The study examines the relative ability of various models to forecast daily stock indexes future volatility. The forecasting models that employed from simple to relatively complex ARCH-class models. It is found that among linear models of stock indexes volatility, the moving average model ranks first using root mean square error, mean absolute percent error, Theil-U and Linex loss function  criteria. We also examine five nonlinear models. These models are ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH and restricted GARCH models. We find that nonlinear models failed to dominate linear models utilizing different error measurement criteria and moving average model appears to be the best. Then we forecast the next two months future stock index price volatility by the best (moving average model.

  2. Nonparametric NAR-ARCH Modelling of Stock Prices by the Kernel Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Chikhi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses cyclical behaviour of Orange stock price listed in French stock exchange over 01/03/2000 to 02/02/2017 by testing the nonlinearities through a class of conditional heteroscedastic nonparametric models. The linearity and Gaussianity assumptions are rejected for Orange Stock returns and informational shocks have transitory effects on returns and volatility. The forecasting results show that Orange stock prices are short-term predictable and nonparametric NAR-ARCH model has better performance over parametric MA-APARCH model for short horizons. Plus, the estimates of this model are also better comparing to the predictions of the random walk model. This finding provides evidence for weak form of inefficiency in Paris stock market with limited rationality, thus it emerges arbitrage opportunities.

  3. Applying an international CAPM to herding behaviour model for integrated stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Najmudin Najmudin

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Development of financial globalization in the form of stock market integration experiences a trend which is getting stronger. The analysis models in the field of finance and investments should be able to adjust to these developments. This adjustment includes the models used to detect the existence of herding behavior. All this time, the herding behavior model of individual stocks towards market consensus has been referring to CAPM theory. The basic assumption of CAPM is that financial assets at a domestic stock market are segmented from the financial assets’ movement at the global market. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an alternative view in the form of an international herding model that should be applied in the context of an integrated stock market. The model was created with reference to the international CAPM. This paper combined ICAPM method and international CSAD model to identify herding for eight stock markets, the sample period being from January 2003 to December 2016. The result found that for segmented stock markets, represented by China and the Philippines, herding happened for both overall the sample period and the market crisis period. In addition, for the integrated stock markets, represented by Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the UK, herding behavior was only found during the market crisis period. Therefore, classification of market integrations should be considered in assessing the herding behaviour at stock markets.

  4. On electric vehicle battery charger modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sainz Sapera, Luis; Mesas García, Juan José; Balcells Sendra, Josep

    2011-01-01

    The increase of electric vehicle (EV) battery chargers connected to electric networks could lead to future harmonic problems in power systems. These loads are nonlinear devices that inject harmonic currents and pollute network voltages. Thus, battery charger modeling must be studied in detail to determine their harmonic emissions and prevent future problems. This paper investigates EV battery charger behavior, analyzes its equivalent circuit and reports a model for each ...

  5. OPTIMAL STOCK MODELING FOR NON-FOODS RETAILER SELLING ON-CREDIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Manakhov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the problem of retail stock optimization within mo-nopolistic competition market while selling non-food goods to customers on-credit. Optimization model has been developed and appropriate technique of stock volume planning has been introduced

  6. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Qiu

    Full Text Available In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA. We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  7. Predicting the Direction of Stock Market Index Movement Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu

    2016-01-01

    In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. In this study, we compare two basic types of input variables to predict the direction of the daily stock market index. The main contribution of this study is the ability to predict the direction of the next day's price of the Japanese stock market index by using an optimized artificial neural network (ANN) model. To improve the prediction accuracy of the trend of the stock market index in the future, we optimize the ANN model using genetic algorithms (GA). We demonstrate and verify the predictability of stock price direction by using the hybrid GA-ANN model and then compare the performance with prior studies. Empirical results show that the Type 2 input variables can generate a higher forecast accuracy and that it is possible to enhance the performance of the optimized ANN model by selecting input variables appropriately.

  8. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  9. Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-01-15

    The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

  10. Minimizing waste (off-cuts using cutting stock model: The case of one dimensional cutting stock problem in wood working industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gbemileke A. Ogunranti

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The main objective of this study is to develop a model for solving the one dimensional cutting stock problem in the wood working industry, and develop a program for its implementation. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts the pattern oriented approach in the formulation of the cutting stock model. A pattern generation algorithm was developed and coded using Visual basic.NET language. The cutting stock model developed is a Linear Programming (LP Model constrained by numerous feasible patterns. A LP solver was integrated with the pattern generation algorithm program to develop a one - dimensional cutting stock model application named GB Cutting Stock Program. Findings and Originality/value: Applying the model to a real life optimization problem significantly reduces material waste (off-cuts and minimizes the total stock used. The result yielded about 30.7% cost savings for company-I when the total stock materials used is compared with the former cutting plan. Also, to evaluate the efficiency of the application, Case I problem was solved using two top commercial 1D-cutting stock software.  The results show that the GB program performs better when related results were compared. Research limitations/implications: This study round up the linear programming solution for the number of pattern to cut. Practical implications: From Managerial perspective, implementing optimized cutting plans increases productivity by eliminating calculating errors and drastically reducing operator mistakes. Also, financial benefits that can annually amount to millions in cost savings can be achieved through significant material waste reduction. Originality/value: This paper developed a linear programming one dimensional cutting stock model based on a pattern generation algorithm to minimize waste in the wood working industry. To implement the model, the algorithm was coded using VisualBasic.net and linear programming solver called lpsolvedll (dynamic

  11. TIRE MODELS USED IN VEHICLE DYNAMIC APPLICATIONS AND THEIR USING IN VEHICLE ACCIDENT SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman ELDOĞAN

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available Wheel model is very important in vehicle modelling, it is because the contact between vehicle and road is achieved by wheel. Vehicle models can be dynamic models which are used in vehicle design, they can also be models used in accident simulations. Because of the importance of subject, many studies including theoretical, experimental and mixed type have been carried out. In this study, information is given about development of wheel modelling and research studies and also use of these modellings in traffic accident simulations.

  12. Vehicle Weight in Gipps' Car-Following Model

    OpenAIRE

    Nerem, Sebastian

    2013-01-01

    Car-following models are mathematical models, which describe the situation where vehicles drive behind each other on a single lane road section with no overtaking possibilities. The purpose of the models is to estimate how a vehicle reacts to the behavior of the vehicle ahead. A weakness in these models is that they do not take the weight of each vehicle into account. It can however be shown that a vehicle?s weight affects its driving behavior.The purpose of this master?s thesis is to investi...

  13. Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

    2017-03-01

    The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

  14. Underestimation of boreal soil carbon stocks by mathematical soil carbon models linked to soil nutrient status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina A.; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-08-01

    Inaccurate estimate of the largest terrestrial carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, is the major source of uncertainty in simulating feedback of climate warming on ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange by process-based ecosystem and soil carbon models. Although the models need to simplify complex environmental processes of soil carbon sequestration, in a large mosaic of environments a missing key driver could lead to a modeling bias in predictions of SOC stock change.We aimed to evaluate SOC stock estimates of process-based models (Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY soil sub-model v4) against a massive Swedish forest soil inventory data set (3230 samples) organized by a recursive partitioning method into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions.For two-thirds of measurements all models predicted accurate SOC stock levels regardless of the detail of input data, e.g., whether they ignored or included soil properties. However, in fertile sites with high N deposition, high cation exchange capacity, or moderately increased soil water content, Yasso07 and Q models underestimated SOC stocks. In comparison to Yasso07 and Q, accounting for the site-specific soil characteristics (e. g. clay content and topsoil mineral N) by CENTURY improved SOC stock estimates for sites with high clay content, but not for sites with high N deposition.Our analysis suggested that the soils with poorly predicted SOC stocks, as characterized by the high nutrient status and well-sorted parent material, indeed have had other predominant drivers of SOC stabilization lacking in the models, presumably the mycorrhizal organic uptake and organo-mineral stabilization processes. Our results imply that the role of soil nutrient status as regulator of organic matter mineralization has to be re-evaluated, since correct SOC stocks are decisive for predicting future SOC change and soil CO2 efflux.

  15. Hyper-X Vehicle Model - Side View

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A side-view of an early desk-top model of NASA's X-43A 'Hyper-X,' or Hypersonic Experimental Vehicle, which has been developed to flight test a dual-mode ramjet/scramjet propulsion system at speeds from Mach 7 up to Mach 10 (7 to 10 times the speed of sound, which varies with temperature and altitude). Hyper-X, the flight vehicle for which is designated as X-43A, is an experimental flight-research program seeking to demonstrate airframe-integrated, 'air-breathing' engine technologies that promise to increase payload capacity for future vehicles, including hypersonic aircraft (faster than Mach 5) and reusable space launchers. This multiyear program is currently underway at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California. The Hyper-X schedule calls for its first flight later this year (2000). Hyper-X is a joint program, with Dryden sharing responsibility with NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. Dryden's primary role is to fly three unpiloted X-43A research vehicles to validate engine technologies and hypersonic design tools as well as the hypersonic test facility at Langley. Langley manages the program and leads the technology development effort. The Hyper-X Program seeks to significantly expand the speed boundaries of air-breathing propulsion by being the first aircraft to demonstrate an airframe-integrated, scramjet-powered free flight. Scramjets (supersonic-combustion ramjets) are ramjet engines in which the airflow through the whole engine remains supersonic. Scramjet technology is challenging because only limited testing can be performed in ground facilities. Long duration, full-scale testing requires flight research. Scramjet engines are air-breathing, capturing their oxygen from the atmosphere. Current spacecraft, such as the Space Shuttle, are rocket powered, so they must carry both fuel and oxygen for propulsion. Scramjet technology-based vehicles need to carry only fuel. By eliminating the need to carry oxygen, future hypersonic

  16. Hyper-X Vehicle Model - Front View

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A front view of an early desk-top model of NASA's X-43A 'Hyper-X,' or Hypersonic Experimental Vehicle, which has been developed to flight test a dual-mode ramjet/scramjet propulsion system at speeds from Mach 7 up to Mach 10 (7 to 10 times the speed of sound, which varies with temperature and altitude). Hyper-X, the flight vehicle for which is designated as X-43A, is an experimental flight-research program seeking to demonstrate airframe-integrated, 'air-breathing' engine technologies that promise to increase payload capacity for future vehicles, including hypersonic aircraft (faster than Mach 5) and reusable space launchers. This multiyear program is currently underway at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California. The Hyper-X schedule calls for its first flight later this year (2000). Hyper-X is a joint program, with Dryden sharing responsibility with NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. Dryden's primary role is to fly three unpiloted X-43A research vehicles to validate engine technologies and hypersonic design tools as well as the hypersonic test facility at Langley. Langley manages the program and leads the technology development effort. The Hyper-X Program seeks to significantly expand the speed boundaries of air-breathing propulsion by being the first aircraft to demonstrate an airframe-integrated, scramjet-powered free flight. Scramjets (supersonic-combustion ramjets) are ramjet engines in which the airflow through the whole engine remains supersonic. Scramjet technology is challenging because only limited testing can be performed in ground facilities. Long duration, full-scale testing requires flight research. Scramjet engines are air-breathing, capturing their oxygen from the atmosphere. Current spacecraft, such as the Space Shuttle, are rocket powered, so they must carry both fuel and oxygen for propulsion. Scramjet technology-based vehicles need to carry only fuel. By eliminating the need to carry oxygen, future hypersonic

  17. A Model of Active Roll Vehicle Suspension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Čech

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes active suspension with active roll for four-wheel vehicle (bus by means of an in-series pump actuator with doubled hydropneumatic springs. It also gives full control law with no sky-craping. Lateral stiffness and solid axle geometry in the mechanical model are not neglected. Responses to lateral input as well as responses to statistical unevennesses show considerable improvement of passengers comfort and safety when cornering.

  18. Evaluation of approaches focused on modelling of organic carbon stocks using the RothC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koco, Štefan; Skalský, Rastislav; Makovníková, Jarmila; Tarasovičová, Zuzana; Barančíková, Gabriela

    2014-05-01

    The aim of current efforts in the European area is the protection of soil organic matter, which is included in all relevant documents related to the protection of soil. The use of modelling of organic carbon stocks for anticipated climate change, respectively for land management can significantly help in short and long-term forecasting of the state of soil organic matter. RothC model can be applied in the time period of several years to centuries and has been tested in long-term experiments within a large range of soil types and climatic conditions in Europe. For the initialization of the RothC model, knowledge about the carbon pool sizes is essential. Pool size characterization can be obtained from equilibrium model runs, but this approach is time consuming and tedious, especially for larger scale simulations. Due to this complexity we search for new possibilities how to simplify and accelerate this process. The paper presents a comparison of two approaches for SOC stocks modelling in the same area. The modelling has been carried out on the basis of unique input of land use, management and soil data for each simulation unit separately. We modeled 1617 simulation units of 1x1 km grid on the territory of agroclimatic region Žitný ostrov in the southwest of Slovakia. The first approach represents the creation of groups of simulation units based on the evaluation of results for simulation unit with similar input values. The groups were created after the testing and validation of modelling results for individual simulation units with results of modelling the average values of inputs for the whole group. Tests of equilibrium model for interval in the range 5 t.ha-1 from initial SOC stock showed minimal differences in results comparing with result for average value of whole interval. Management inputs data from plant residues and farmyard manure for modelling of carbon turnover were also the same for more simulation units. Combining these groups (intervals of initial

  19. A new method of measuring stock market manipulation through structural equation modeling (SEM)

    OpenAIRE

    Maxim, Maruf Rahman; Ashif, Abu Sadat Muhammad

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model of measuring a latent variable, stock market manipulation. The model bears close resemblance with the literature on economic well-being. It interprets the manipulation of a stock as a latent variable, in the form of a multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) model. This approach exploits systematic relations between various indicators of manipulation and between manipulation and multiple causes, which allows it to identify the determinants of manipulatio...

  20. Mathematical modelling of unmanned aerial vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarwar, S.; Rehman, S.U.

    2013-01-01

    UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) UAVs are emerging as requirement of time and it is expected that in next five to ten years, complete air space will be flooded with UAVs, committed in varied assignments ranging from military, scientific and commercial usage. Non availability of human pilot inside UAV necessitates the requirement of an onboard auto pilot in order to maintain desired flight profile against any unexpected disturbance and/or parameter variations. Design of such an auto pilot requires an accurate mathematical model of UAV. The aim of this paper is to present a consolidated picture of UAV model. This paper first consolidates complete 6 DOF Degree of Freedom) equations of motion into a nonlinear mathematical model and its simulation using model parameters of a real UAV. Model is then linearized into longitudinal and lateral modes. State space models of linearized modes are simulated and analyzed for stability parameters. The developed model can be used to design auto pilot for UAV. (author)

  1. Hypersonic Vehicle Propulsion System Simplified Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stueber, Thomas J.; Raitano, Paul; Le, Dzu K.; Ouzts, Peter

    2007-01-01

    This document addresses the modeling task plan for the hypersonic GN&C GRC team members. The overall propulsion system modeling task plan is a multi-step process and the task plan identified in this document addresses the first steps (short term modeling goals). The procedures and tools produced from this effort will be useful for creating simplified dynamic models applicable to a hypersonic vehicle propulsion system. The document continues with the GRC short term modeling goal. Next, a general description of the desired simplified model is presented along with simulations that are available to varying degrees. The simulations may be available in electronic form (FORTRAN, CFD, MatLab,...) or in paper form in published documents. Finally, roadmaps outlining possible avenues towards realizing simplified model are presented.

  2. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  3. A viability analysis for a stock/price model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerry, Chakib; Raissi, Nadia

    2012-09-01

    We examine the conditions for the sustainability of a stock/price system based on the use of a marine renewable resource. Instead of studying the environmental and economic interactions in terms of optimal control, we focus on the viability of the system. These viability/crisis situations are defined by a set of economic state constraints. This constraints combine a guaranteed consumption and a minimum income for fishermen. Using the mathematical concept of viability kernel, we reveal that with only economics constraints we guarantee a perennial stock/price system.

  4. The adaptive cruise control vehicles in the cellular automata model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Rui; Wu Qingsong

    2006-01-01

    This Letter presented a cellular automata model where the adaptive cruise control vehicles are modelled. In this model, the constant time headway policy is adopted. The fundamental diagram is presented. The simulation results are in good agreement with the analytical ones. The mixture of ACC vehicles with manually driven vehicles is investigated. It is shown that with the introduction of ACC vehicles, the jam can be suppressed

  5. Improving capacity of stock assessment for sea turtles: using ocean circulation modeling to inform genetic mixed stock analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Genetic approaches have been useful for assigning stock ID to sea turtles caught as bycatch in fisheries, or determining stock composition at foraging grounds. In...

  6. A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

    2018-06-01

    The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

  7. The Effects of Crude Oil on Stock Markets with use of Markov Switching Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wiese, Thor August Mediaas

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a two regime Markov switching (MS) model is implemented to examine the relationship between crude oil, both brent oil and WTI, and stock markets. In particular, the model is applied to stock markets in both oil importing and exporting countries which include Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States. This paper first evaluates the significance of oil parameters in the detected regimes, where the two regimes respond to low mean...

  8. ACCOUNTING FUNDAMENTALS AND VARIATIONS OF STOCK PRICE: METHODOLOGICAL REFINEMENT WITH RECURSIVE SIMULTANEOUS MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Sumiyana, Sumiyana; Baridwan, Zaki

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates association between accounting fundamentals and variations of stock prices using recursive simultaneous equation model. The accounting fundamentalsconsist of earnings yield, book value, profitability, growth opportunities and discount rate. The prior single relationships model has been investigated by Chen and Zhang (2007),Sumiyana (2011) and Sumiyana et al. (2010). They assume that all accounting fundamentals associate direct-linearly to the stock returns. This study ...

  9. Accounting Fundamentals and Variations of Stock Price: Methodological Refinement with Recursive Simultaneous Model

    OpenAIRE

    Sumiyana, Sumiyana; Baridwan, Zaki

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates association between accounting fundamentals and variations of stock prices using recursive simultaneous equation model. The accounting fundamentalsconsist of earnings yield, book value, profitability, growth opportunities and discount rate. The prior single relationships model has been investigated by Chen and Zhang (2007),Sumiyana (2011) and Sumiyana et al. (2010). They assume that all accounting fundamentals associate direct-linearly to the stock returns. This study ...

  10. Model of Risk Forewarn and Investment Decision in Stock Markets and Its Realization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU Hui-wen; TANG Bing-yong; WANG Li-ping; XU Guang-wei

    2004-01-01

    Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.

  11. Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horton, William

    1996-01-01

    This report documents the Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model GVSI is a top-level analysis tool designed to support engineering tradeoff studies and vehicle design optimization efforts...

  12. Effective business models for electric vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavrilescu Ileana

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The proposed study aims to use asyncretic and synthetic approach of two elements that have an intrinsic efficiency value: business models and electric vehicles. Our approach seeks to circumscribe more widespread concerns globally - on the one hand, to oil shortages and climate change - and on the other hand, economic efficiency to business models customized to new types of mobility. New “electric” cars projects besiege the traditional position of the conventional car. In the current economy context the concept of efficiency of business models is quite different from what it meant in a traditional sense, particularly because of new technological fields. The arguments put forward by us will be both factual and emotional. Therefore, we rely on interviews and questionnaires designed to fit significantly to the point of the study. Research in the field of new propulsion systems for vehicles has been exploring various possibilities lately, such as: electricity, hydrogen, compressed air, biogas, etc. Theoretically or in principle, it is possible for tomorrow’s vehicles to be driven by the widest variety if resources. A primary goal of our study would be to theoretically reconsider some of the contemporary entrepreneurship coordinates and secondly to provide minimum guidance for decision-making of businesses that will operate in the field of electric mobility. To achieve this, we shall specifically analyze an electric mobility system but in parallel we will address business models that lend themselves effectively on aspects of this field. With a methodology based on questionnaires that had to overcome the conventional mechanism using some of the most unusual ingredients, we hope that the results of our research will successfully constitute a contribution to the goals and especially as a means of managerial orientation for entrepreneurs in the Romanian market.

  13. An EPLS model for a variable production rate with stock-price sensitive demand and deterioration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy T.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available It is observed that large piles of consumer goods displayed in supermarkets lead consumers to buy more, which generates more profit to sellers. But a large number of on-hand display of stock leaves a negative impression on the buyer. Also, the amount of shelf or display space is limited. Due to this reason, we impose a restriction on the number of on-hand display of stock and also on initial and ending on-hand stock levels. We introduce an economic production lot size model, where production rate depends on stock and selling price per unit. A constant fraction deterioration rate is considered in this model. To illustrate the results of the model, four numerical examples are established. Sensitivity analysis of the changes of parameter values is also given.

  14. Generalized Linear Models in Vehicle Insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvie Kafková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Actuaries in insurance companies try to find the best model for an estimation of insurance premium. It depends on many risk factors, e.g. the car characteristics and the profile of the driver. In this paper, an analysis of the portfolio of vehicle insurance data using a generalized linear model (GLM is performed. The main advantage of the approach presented in this article is that the GLMs are not limited by inflexible preconditions. Our aim is to predict the relation of annual claim frequency on given risk factors. Based on a large real-world sample of data from 57 410 vehicles, the present study proposed a classification analysis approach that addresses the selection of predictor variables. The models with different predictor variables are compared by analysis of deviance and Akaike information criterion (AIC. Based on this comparison, the model for the best estimate of annual claim frequency is chosen. All statistical calculations are computed in R environment, which contains stats package with the function for the estimation of parameters of GLM and the function for analysis of deviation.

  15. Tensegrity Models and Shape Control of Vehicle Formations

    OpenAIRE

    Nabet, Benjamin; Leonard, Naomi Ehrich

    2009-01-01

    Using dynamic models of tensegrity structures, we derive provable, distributed control laws for stabilizing and changing the shape of a formation of vehicles in the plane. Tensegrity models define the desired, controlled, multi-vehicle system dynamics, where each node in the tensegrity structure maps to a vehicle and each interconnecting strut or cable in the structure maps to a virtual interconnection between vehicles. Our method provides a smooth map from any desired planar formation shape ...

  16. The relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and stock volatility in GARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Chen, Ting Ting

    2016-08-01

    We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of transactions as proxy for the rate of information arrivals affecting stock volatility. The impact of trading volumes or number of transactions on volatility is measured using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We find that the GARCH effects, that is, persistence of volatility, is not always removed by adding trading volumes or number of transactions, indicating that trading volumes and number of transactions do not adequately represent the rate of information arrivals.

  17. Longitudinal Control for Mengshi Autonomous Vehicle via Gauss Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbo Gao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic robustness and stability control is a requirement for self-driving of autonomous vehicle. Longitudinal control technique of autonomous vehicle is basic theory and one key complex technique which must have the reliability and precision of vehicle controller. The longitudinal control technique is one of the foundations of the safety and stability of autonomous vehicle control. In our paper, we present a longitudinal control algorithm based on cloud model for Mengshi autonomous vehicle to ensure the dynamic stability and tracking performance of Mengshi autonomous vehicle. The longitudinal control algorithm mainly uses cloud model generator to control the acceleration of the autonomous vehicle to achieve the goal that controls the speed of Mengshi autonomous vehicle. The proposed longitudinal control algorithm based on cloud model is verified by real experiments on Highway driving scene. The experiments results of the acceleration and speed show that the algorithm is validity and stability.

  18. Corporate sustainability and asset pricing models: empirical evidence for the Brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

  19. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  20. Modeling IPO In Dubai Stock Market: Booming Or Tumbling Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Viviane Y. Naïmy

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of IPO on Dubai Stock Market. We measured through detailed distribution analysis and hypothesis testing the Dubai markets reaction to IPO. We demonstrated that IPO had downbeat impact on Dubai market performance in terms of return as revealed by the rejection of the alternative hypothesis. The independency between market return and IPO was partially attributed to irrational valuations at the time of IPO.

  1. Vehicle System Management Modeling in UML for Ares I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Newton W.; Biehn, Bradley A.; Curry, Tristan D.; Martinez, Mario R.

    2011-01-01

    The Spacecraft & Vehicle Systems Department of Marshall Space Flight Center is responsible for modeling the Vehicle System Management for the Ares I vehicle which was a part of the now canceled Constellation Program. An approach to generating the requirements for the Vehicle System Management was to use the Unified Modeling Language technique to build and test a model that would fulfill the Vehicle System Management requirements. UML has been used on past projects (flight software) in the design phase of the effort but this was the first attempt to use the UML technique from a top down requirements perspective.

  2. Emergence of Opinion Leaders Based on Agent Model and Its Impact to Stock Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misawa, Tadanobu; Suzuki, Kyoko; Okano, Yoshitaka; Shimokawa, Tetsuya

    Recently, we can be able to get a lot of information easily because information technology has been developed. Therefore, it is thought that the impact to a society by communication of information such as word of mouth has been growing. In this paper, we propose a model of emergence of opinion leader based on word of mouth in artificial stock market. Moreover, the process of emergence of opinion leader and impact to stock prices by opinion leader are verified by simulation.

  3. Model of formation of low-risk stock portfolio in modern financial markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Дмитро Сергійович Богач

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The basic principles of formation of an investment portfolio in modern financial markets are determined. A method of forming stock portfolio due to the statistical properties of stationary process and relations between the behavior of stocks and economic sector, characterizing these actions, is proposed. Optimal points of recalculation of model depends on changes in current trends in the financial market is described

  4. Covariance of random stock prices in the Stochastic Dividend Discount Model

    OpenAIRE

    Agosto, Arianna; Mainini, Alessandra; Moretto, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Dividend discount models have been developed in a deterministic setting. Some authors (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998; Yao, 1997) have introduced randomness in terms of stochastic growth rates, delivering closed-form expressions for the expected value of stock prices. This paper extends such previous results by determining a formula for the covariance between random stock prices when the dividends' rates of growth are correlated. The formula is eventually applied to real market data.

  5. The Dividend Discount Model with Multiple Growth Rates of Any Order for Stock Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; El-Khatib, Youssef

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we provide a general solution for the dividend discount model in order to compute the intrinsic value of a common stock that allows for multiple stage growth rates of any predetermined number of periods. A mathematical proof is provided for the suggested general solution. A numerical application is also presented. The solution introduced in this paper is expected to improve on the precision of stock valuation, which might be of fundamental importance for investors as well as fin...

  6. A surplus production model including environmental effects: Application to the Senegalese white shrimp stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom

    2009-12-01

    In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic

  7. Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

    2015-11-01

    One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

  8. Modeling of electric vehicle battery for vehicle-to-grid applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pang, Ying; Brady, Cormac; Pellegrino, Giustino

    2013-01-01

    Electric vehicle battery models are essential when performing analysis of EV systems. The battery package of electric vehicles is complicated and unpredictable because of its chemical based functioning. In this paper, a battery model is presented with a number of internal and external factors taken...

  9. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  10. An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Turner; Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2006-01-01

    Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock...

  11. The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

  12. Reusable launch vehicle model uncertainties impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiaye; Mu, Rongjun; Zhang, Xin; Deng, Yanpeng

    2018-03-01

    Reusable launch vehicle(RLV) has the typical characteristics of complex aerodynamic shape and propulsion system coupling, and the flight environment is highly complicated and intensely changeable. So its model has large uncertainty, which makes the nominal system quite different from the real system. Therefore, studying the influences caused by the uncertainties on the stability of the control system is of great significance for the controller design. In order to improve the performance of RLV, this paper proposes the approach of analyzing the influence of the model uncertainties. According to the typical RLV, the coupling dynamic and kinematics models are built. Then different factors that cause uncertainties during building the model are analyzed and summed up. After that, the model uncertainties are expressed according to the additive uncertainty model. Choosing the uncertainties matrix's maximum singular values as the boundary model, and selecting the uncertainties matrix's norm to show t how much the uncertainty factors influence is on the stability of the control system . The simulation results illustrate that the inertial factors have the largest influence on the stability of the system, and it is necessary and important to take the model uncertainties into consideration before the designing the controller of this kind of aircraft( like RLV, etc).

  13. Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Model Data Mining For Recognizing Stock Data Sampling Pattern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvia Jane Annatje Sumarauw

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Capital market has been beneficial to companies and investor. For investors, the capital market provides two economical advantages, namely deviden and capital gain, and a non-economical one that is a voting .} hare in Shareholders General Meeting. But, it can also penalize the share owners. In order to prevent them from the risk, the investors should predict the prospect of their companies. As a consequence of having an abstract commodity, the share quality will be determined by the validity of their company profile information. Any information of stock value fluctuation from Jakarta Stock Exchange can be a useful consideration and a good measurement for data analysis. In the context of preventing the shareholders from the risk, this research focuses on stock data sample category or stock data sample pattern by using Fuzzy c-Me, MS Clustering Model which providing any useful information jar the investors. lite research analyses stock data such as Individual Index, Volume and Amount on Property and Real Estate Emitter Group at Jakarta Stock Exchange from January 1 till December 31 of 204. 'he mining process follows Cross Industry Standard Process model for Data Mining (CRISP,. DM in the form of circle with these steps: Business Understanding, Data Understanding, Data Preparation, Modelling, Evaluation and Deployment. At this modelling process, the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Model will be applied. Data Mining Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Model can analyze stock data in a big database with many complex variables especially for finding the data sample pattern, and then building Fuzzy Inference System for stimulating inputs to be outputs that based on Fuzzy Logic by recognising the pattern. Keywords: Data Mining, AUz..:y c-Means Clustering Model, Pattern Recognition

  14. The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phiri

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine linear and nonlinear cointegration and causal relations between unemployment and stock market returns in South Africa using quarterly data collected between 1994:Q1 and 2016:Q1. Our empirical results reveal significant cointegration effects between the time series in both linear and nonlinear models, even though both frameworks ultimately reject the notion of any causal relations between the variables. Collectively, our study rejects the notion of unemployment being a good predictor for stock market returns and neither do developments in the stock market have any effect on the unemployment rate. Such evidence advocates for weak-form efficiency in the JSE equity prices whereby unemployment data cannot help investors to predict the movement of future share prices and further suggests that policymakers cannot rely on stock market development as an avenue towards lowering the prevailingly high levels of unemployment as set in current macroeconomic policy objectives.

  15. Modeling of in-vehicle magnetic refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Ulrik Lund; Bahl, Christian R.H.; Engelbrecht, Kurt

    2014-01-01

    A high-performance magnetic refrigeration device is considered as a potential technology for in-vehicle air conditioners in electric vehicles. The high power consumption of a conventional air conditioner in an electric vehicle has considerable impacts on cruising distance. For this purpose...

  16. Modeling of In-vehicle Magnetic refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Ulrik Lund; Bahl, Christian; Engelbrecht, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    A high-performance magnetic refrigeration device is considered as a potential technology for in-vehicle air conditioners in electric vehicles. The high power consumption of a conventional air conditioner in an electric vehicle has considerable impacts on cruising distance. For this purpose...

  17. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  18. Vehicle modeling and duty cycle analysis to validate technology feasibility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castonguay, S. [National Centre for Advanced Transportation, Saint-Jerome, PQ (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    The National Centre for Advanced Transportation (CNTA) is a non-profit organization with a board consisting of representatives from the transportation industry, public service and public transit organizations, research and teaching institutions, and from municipal and economic development organizations. The objectives of the CNTA are to accelerate the introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles; act as a catalyst in projects; assist in increasing Canadian technology assets; initiate and support electric vehicle conversion projects; increase Canadian business for electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and plug-in electric vehicles; and provide a cost-effective solution and aggressive payback for road/off-road vehicles. This presentation provided an overview of the objectives and services of the CNTA. It discussed various road and off-road vehicles, duty cycle and technology of electric vehicles. Specific topics related to the technology were discussed, including configuration; controls and interface; efficiency maps; models and simulation; validation; and support. figs.

  19. Analysis of traversable pits model to make intelligent wheeled vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Abbasi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the issue of passing wheeled vehicles from pits is discussed. The issue is modeled by defining the limits of passing wheeled vehicles. The proposed model has been studied based on changes in the effective parameters. Finally, in order to describe the problem, the proposed model has been solved for wheeled vehicles based on the effective parameters by using one of the numerical methods.

  20. Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Mugoša

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are theirmain investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

  1. A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daxin Tian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

  2. Computational Aerodynamic Modeling of Small Quadcopter Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Seokkwan; Ventura Diaz, Patricia; Boyd, D. Douglas; Chan, William M.; Theodore, Colin R.

    2017-01-01

    High-fidelity computational simulations have been performed which focus on rotor-fuselage and rotor-rotor aerodynamic interactions of small quad-rotor vehicle systems. The three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on overset grids using high-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, low Mach number preconditioning, and hybrid turbulence modeling. Computational results for isolated rotors are shown to compare well with available experimental data. Computational results in hover reveal the differences between a conventional configuration where the rotors are mounted above the fuselage and an unconventional configuration where the rotors are mounted below the fuselage. Complex flow physics in forward flight is investigated. The goal of this work is to demonstrate that understanding of interactional aerodynamics can be an important factor in design decisions regarding rotor and fuselage placement for next-generation multi-rotor drones.

  3. Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.; Helder, J.; Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.

    2015-04-02

    In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

  4. Asymptotic Behavior of the Stock Price Distribution Density and Implied Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulisashvili, Archil; Stein, Elias M.

    2010-01-01

    We study the asymptotic behavior of distribution densities arising in stock price models with stochastic volatility. The main objects of our interest in the present paper are the density of time averages of the squared volatility process and the density of the stock price process in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model. We find explicit formulas for leading terms in asymptotic expansions of these densities and give error estimates. As an application of our results, sharp asymptotic formulas for the implied volatility in the Stein-Stein and the Heston model are obtained.

  5. Off-road vehicle dynamics analysis, modelling and optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Taghavifar, Hamid

    2017-01-01

    This book deals with the analysis of off-road vehicle dynamics from kinetics and kinematics perspectives and the performance of vehicle traversing over rough and irregular terrain. The authors consider the wheel performance, soil-tire interactions and their interface, tractive performance of the vehicle, ride comfort, stability over maneuvering, transient and steady state conditions of the vehicle traversing, modeling the aforementioned aspects and optimization from energetic and vehicle mobility perspectives. This book brings novel figures for the transient dynamics and original wheel terrain dynamics at on-the-go condition.

  6. Simulation of hybrid vehicle propulsion with an advanced battery model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nallabolu, S.; Kostetzer, L.; Rudnyi, E. [CADFEM GmbH, Grafing (Germany); Geppert, M.; Quinger, D. [LION Smart GmbH, Frieding (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    In the recent years there has been observed an increasing concern about global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to the environmental issues the predicted scarcity of oil supplies and the dramatic increase in oil price puts new demands on vehicle design. As a result energy efficiency and reduced emission have become one of main selling point for automobiles. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) have therefore become an interesting technology for the governments and automotive industries. HEV are more complicated compared to conventional vehicles due to the fact that these vehicles contain more electrical components such as electric machines, power electronics, electronic continuously variable transmissions (CVT), and embedded powertrain controllers. Advanced energy storage devices and energy converters, such as Li-ion batteries, ultracapacitors, and fuel cells are also considered. A detailed vehicle model used for an energy flow analysis and vehicle performance simulation is necessary. Computer simulation is indispensible to facilitate the examination of the vast hybrid electric vehicle design space with the aim to predict the vehicle performance over driving profiles, estimate fuel consumption and the pollution emissions. There are various types of mathematical models and simulators available to perform system simulation of vehicle propulsion. One of the standard methods to model the complete vehicle powertrain is ''backward quasistatic modeling''. In this method vehicle subsystems are defined based on experiential models in the form of look-up tables and efficiency maps. The interaction between adjacent subsystems of the vehicle is defined through the amount of power flow. Modeling the vehicle subsystems like motor, engine, gearbox and battery is under this technique is based on block diagrams. The vehicle model is applied in two case studies to evaluate the vehicle performance and fuel consumption. In the first case study the affect

  7. Modeling of Combined Phenomena Affecting an AUV Stealth Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Gerigk

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper some results of research connected with modeling the basic stealth characteristics of an AUV vehicle are presented. First of all a general approach to design of the stealth AUV autonomous underwater vehicles under consideration is introduced. Then the AUV stealth vehicle concept is briefly described. Next a method of modeling of the stealth characteristics is briefly described. As an example of the stealth characteristics investigations some results of modeling the boundary layer and wake are presented. Some remarks regarding the behavior of the AUV stealth vehicle in the submerged conditions are given. The final conclusions are presented.

  8. A Queueing Model for Supervisory Control of Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Autonomous Vehicles Joseph DiVita, PhD Robert L. Morris Maria Olinda Rodas SSC Pacific Approved...298 (Rev. 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 09–2013 Final A Queueing Model for Supervisory Control of Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles Joseph...Mission Area: Command and Control, Queueing Model; Supervisory Control; Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles M. O. Rodas U U U U 38 (619)

  9. Modeling changes in organic carbon stocks for distinct soils in southeastern brazil after four eucalyptus rotations using the century model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Augusto Miguel Nascimento Lima

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil organic matter (SOM plays an important role in carbon (C cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i soil organic carbon (SOC stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO, short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG, these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29 despite the opposite result obtained

  10. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  11. Modeling soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Spain using the GEFSOC system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Easter, Mark; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Paustian, Keith

    2010-05-01

    Currently, there is little information about soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Spain. To date the effects of land-use and soil management on SOC stocks in Spain have been evaluated in experimental fields under certain soil and climate conditions. However, these field experiments do not account for the spatial variability in management, cropping systems and soil and climate characteristics that exist in the whole territory. More realistic approaches like ecosystem-level dynamic simulation systems linked to geographic information systems (GIS) allow better assessments of SOC stocks at a regional or national level. The Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system was recently built for this purpose (Milne et al., 2007) and it incorporates three widely used models for estimating SOC dynamics: (a) the Century ecosystem model; (b) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (c) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. We modeled 9.5 Mha in northeast Spain using the GEFSOC system to predict SOC stocks and changes comprising: pasture, forest, cereal-fallow, cereal monoculture, orchards, rice, irrigated land and grapes and olives. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database and from Spanish census data on land use from 1926 to 2007. At the same time, current and historical management information was collected from different sources in order to have a fairly well picture of changes in land use and management for this area. Soil parameters needed by the system were obtained from the European soil map (1 km x 1 km) and climate data was produced by the Meteorology State Agency (Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Environs of Spain). The SOC stocks simulated were validated with SOC values from the European SOC map and from other national studies. Modeled SOC results suggested that spatial

  12. World modeling for cooperative intelligent vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papp, Z.; Brown, C.; Bartels, C.

    2008-01-01

    Cooperative intelligent vehicle systems constitute a promising way to improving traffic throughput, safety and comfort. The state-of-the-art intelligent-vehicle applications usually can be described as a collection of interacting, highly autonomous, complex dynamical systems (the individual

  13. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

    2014-01-01

    The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

  14. Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonghui Dai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

  15. Modelling Investment Attractiveness of a Public Joint Stock Company as the Basis of Managerial Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brukhovetskaya Natalia E.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses factors of influence upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company, which are factors by the sphere of origin. The article identifies the degree and direction of influence of the factors by the sphere of origin upon investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company; factors are divided into two groups, which could be regulated directly by society and which cannot be regulated. It justifies the necessity of modelling investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company under influence of the factors with the aim of managerial decision making of two groups of stakeholders: owners and managers, shareholders and investors. It conducts modelling of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company using the decision tree method. It develops a decision matrix, on the basis of which the owners, managers, shareholders and investors can make decisions regarding directions of increase of investment attractiveness of a public joint stock company and expediency of initial or further investing into society development.

  16. Enhancing Nursing Staffing Forecasting With Safety Stock Over Lead Time Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNair, Douglas S

    2015-01-01

    In balancing competing priorities, it is essential that nursing staffing provide enough nurses to safely and effectively care for the patients. Mathematical models to predict optimal "safety stocks" have been routine in supply chain management for many years but have up to now not been applied in nursing workforce management. There are various aspects that exhibit similarities between the 2 disciplines, such as an evolving demand forecast according to acuity and the fact that provisioning "stock" to meet demand in a future period has nonzero variable lead time. Under assumptions about the forecasts (eg, the demand process is well fit as an autoregressive process) and about the labor supply process (≥1 shifts' lead time), we show that safety stock over lead time for such systems is effectively equivalent to the corresponding well-studied problem for systems with stationary demand bounds and base stock policies. Hence, we can apply existing models from supply chain analytics to find the optimal safety levels of nurse staffing. We use a case study with real data to demonstrate that there are significant benefits from the inclusion of the forecast process when determining the optimal safety stocks.

  17. High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

    2008-02-01

    Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

  18. Effect of suspension kinematic on 14 DOF vehicle model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wongpattananukul, T.; Chantharasenawong, C.

    2017-12-01

    Computer simulations play a major role in shaping modern science and engineering. They reduce time and resource consumption in new studies and designs. Vehicle simulations have been studied extensively to achieve a vehicle model used in minimum lap time solution. Simulation result accuracy depends on the abilities of these models to represent real phenomenon. Vehicles models with 7 degrees of freedom (DOF), 10 DOF and 14 DOF are normally used in optimal control to solve for minimum lap time. However, suspension kinematics are always neglected on these models. Suspension kinematics are defined as wheel movements with respect to the vehicle body. Tire forces are expressed as a function of wheel slip and wheel position. Therefore, the suspension kinematic relation is appended to the 14 DOF vehicle model to investigate its effects on the accuracy of simulate trajectory. Classical 14 DOF vehicle model is chosen as baseline model. Experiment data is collected from formula student style car test runs as baseline data for simulation and comparison between baseline model and model with suspension kinematic. Results show that in a single long turn there is an accumulated trajectory error in baseline model compared to model with suspension kinematic. While in short alternate turns, the trajectory error is much smaller. These results show that suspension kinematic had an effect on the trajectory simulation of vehicle. Which optimal control that use baseline model will result in inaccuracy control scheme.

  19. Longitudinal Control for Mengshi Autonomous Vehicle via Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H. B.; Zhang, X. Y.; Li, D. Y.; Liu, Y. C.

    2018-03-01

    Dynamic robustness and stability control is a requirement for self-driving of autonomous vehicle. Longitudinal control method of autonomous is a key technique which has drawn the attention of industry and academe. In this paper, we present a longitudinal control algorithm based on cloud model for Mengshi autonomous vehicle to ensure the dynamic stability and tracking performance of Mengshi autonomous vehicle. An experiments is applied to test the implementation of the longitudinal control algorithm. Empirical results show that if the longitudinal control algorithm based Gauss cloud model are applied to calculate the acceleration, and the vehicles drive at different speeds, a stable longitudinal control effect is achieved.

  20. Dynamic Model for the Stocks and Release Flows of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Runsheng; Qin, Yuwei; Suh, Sangwon; Keller, Arturo A

    2017-11-07

    Most existing life-cycle release models for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are static, ignoring the dynamics of stock and flows of ENMs. Our model, nanoRelease, estimates the annual releases of ENMs from manufacturing, use, and disposal of a product explicitly taking stock and flow dynamics into account. Given the variabilities in key parameters (e.g., service life of products and annual release rate during use) nanoRelease is designed as a stochastic model. We apply nanoRelease to three ENMs (TiO 2 , SiO 2 and FeO x ) used in paints and coatings through seven product applications, including construction and building, household and furniture, and automotive for the period from 2000 to 2020 using production volume and market projection information. We also consider model uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation. Compared with 2016, the total annual releases of ENMs in 2020 will increase by 34-40%, and the stock will increase by 28-34%. The fraction of the end-of-life release among total release flows will increase from 11% in 2002 to 43% in 2020. As compared to static models, our dynamic model predicts about an order of magnitude lower values for the amount of ENM released from this sector in the near-term while stock continues to build up in the system.

  1. TEST OF THE CHEN-ROLL-ROSS MACROECONOMIC FACTOR MODEL: EVIDENCE FROM CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis Dolinar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the well-known Chen-Roll-Ross model on the Croatian stock market. Modifications of definitions of the Chen-Roll-Ross model variables showed as necessary because of doubtful availability and quality of input data needed. Namely, some macroeconomic and market variables are not available in the originally defined form or do not exist. In that sense this paper gives some alternative definitions for some model variables. Also, in order to improve statistical analysis, in this paper we have modified Fama-MacBeth technique in the way that second-pass regression was substituted with panel regression analysis. Based on the two-pass regression analysis of returns of 34 Croatian stocks on 4 macroeconomic variables during the seven-and-half-year observation period the following conclusion is made. In contrast to the results of Chen, Roll and Ross (1986 for the U.S. stock market, their model is not successful when describing a risk-return relation of Croatian stocks. Nevertheless, one observed version of the Chen-RollRoss model showed certain statistical significance. Namely, two risk factors in that version of the model were statistically significant: default premium, measured as risk premium for the corporate short-term bank loan financing, and term structure premium, measured on short-run basis.

  2. Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

    2014-09-01

    Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

  3. Model Design on Emergency Power Supply of Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanliang Zhao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the mobile storage characteristic of electric vehicles, an emergency power supply model about the electric vehicles is presented through analyzing its storage characteristic. The model can ensure important consumer loss minimization during power failure or emergency and can make electric vehicles cost minimization about running, scheduling, and vindicating. In view of the random dispersion feature in one area, an emergency power supply scheme using the electric vehicles is designed based on the K-means algorithm. The purpose is to improve the electric vehicles initiative gathering ability and reduce the electric vehicles gathering time. The study can reduce the number of other emergency power supply equipment and improve the urban electricity reliability.

  4. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Frid, Leonardo; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2018-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to any number of possible transitions. A current limitation of the STSM method, however, is that all of the state variables must be discrete.Here we present a new approach for extending a STSM, in order to account for continuous state variables, called a state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows (STSM-SF). The STSM-SF method allows for any number of continuous stocks to be defined for every spatial cell in the STSM, along with a suite of continuous flows specifying the rates at which stock levels change over time. The change in the level of each stock is then simulated forward in time, for each spatial cell, as a discrete-time stochastic process. The method differs from the traditional systems dynamics approach to stock-flow modelling in that the stocks and flows can be spatially-explicit, and the flows can be expressed as a function of the STSM states and transitions.We demonstrate the STSM-SF method by integrating a spatially-explicit carbon (C) budget model with a STSM of LULC change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. In this example, continuous stocks are pools of terrestrial C, while the flows are the possible fluxes of C between these pools. Importantly, several of these C fluxes are triggered by corresponding LULC transitions in the STSM. Model outputs include changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of C pools and fluxes across the landscape in response to projected future changes in LULC over the next 50 years.The new STSM-SF method allows both discrete and continuous state variables to be integrated into a STSM, including interactions between

  5. Modelling the effect of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon stocks: does soil erosion matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeu, Elisabet; Van Wesemael, Bas; Van Oost, Kristof

    2014-05-01

    Over the last decades, an increasing number of studies have been conducted to assess the effect of soil management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. At regional scales, biogeochemical models such as CENTURY or Roth-C have been commonly applied. These models simulate SOC dynamics at the profile level (point basis) over long temporal scales but do not consider the continuous lateral transfer of sediment that takes place along geomorphic toposequences. As a consequence, the impact of soil redistribution on carbon fluxes is very seldom taken into account when evaluating changes in SOC stocks due to agricultural management practices on the short and long-term. To address this gap, we assessed the role of soil erosion by water and tillage on SOC stocks under different agricultural management practices in the Walloon region of Belgium. The SPEROS-C model was run for a 100-year period combining three typical crop rotations (using winter wheat, winter barley, sugar beet and maize) with three tillage scenarios (conventional tillage, reduced tillage and reduced tillage in combination with additional crop residues). The results showed that including soil erosion by water in the simulations led to a general decrease in SOC stocks relative to a baseline scenario (where no erosion took place). The SOC lost from these arable soils was mainly exported to adjacent sites and to the river system by lateral fluxes, with magnitudes differing between crop rotations and in all cases lower under conservation tillage practices than under conventional tillage. Although tillage erosion plays an important role in carbon redistribution within fields, lateral fluxes induced by water erosion led to a higher spatial and in-depth heterogeneity of SOC stocks with potential effects on the soil water holding capacity and crop yields. This indicates that studies assessing the effect of agricultural management practices on SOC stocks and other soil properties over the landscape should

  6. Modeling dependence structure between stock market volatility and sukuk yields: A nonlinear study in the case of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nader Naifar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence structure between sukuk (Islamic bonds yields and stock market (returns and volatility in the case of Saudi Arabia. We consider three Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures namely Gumbel, Clayton, and Frank. This study shows that the sukuk yields exhibit significant dependence only with stock market volatility. In addition, the dependence structure between sukuk yields and stock market volatility are symmetric and linked with the same intensity.

  7. Interacting gaps model, dynamics of order book, and stock-market fluctuations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Svorenčík, A.; Slanina, František

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 57, - (2007), s. 453-462 ISSN 1434-6028 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1P04OCP10.001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520 Keywords : interacting gaps model * dynamics of order book * stock - market fluctuations Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.356, year: 2007

  8. Have East Asian stock markets calmed down? Evidence from a regime-switching model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chaudhuri, K.R.; Klaassen, F.

    2001-01-01

    The 1997-98 East Asian crisis was accompanied by high volatility of East Asian stock returns. This paper examines whether the volatility has already come down to the level of the years before the crisis. We use a regime-switching model to account for possible structural change in the unconditional

  9. Modeling investor sentiment and overconfidence in an agent-based stock market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lovric, M.; Kaymak, U.; Spronk, J.

    2010-01-01

    Agent-based stock markets as bottom-up models of financial markets allow us to study the link between individual investor behavior and aggregate market phenomena, and as such are a useful tool for investigating the implications of behavioral finance and investor psychology. In this paper we want to

  10. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  11. Vehicle logo recognition using multi-level fusion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Wei; Xiao, Jianli

    2018-04-01

    Vehicle logo recognition plays an important role in manufacturer identification and vehicle recognition. This paper proposes a new vehicle logo recognition algorithm. It has a hierarchical framework, which consists of two fusion levels. At the first level, a feature fusion model is employed to map the original features to a higher dimension feature space. In this space, the vehicle logos become more recognizable. At the second level, a weighted voting strategy is proposed to promote the accuracy and the robustness of the recognition results. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, extensive experiments are performed, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can achieve high recognition accuracy and work robustly.

  12. Battery electric vehicle energy consumption modelling for range estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, J.; Besselink, I.J.M.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2017-01-01

    Range anxiety is considered as one of the major barriers to the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). One method to solve this problem is to provide accurate range estimation to the driver. This paper describes a vehicle energy consumption model considering the influence of weather

  13. Port-based Modeling and Control of Underactuated Aerial Vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mersha, A.Y.; Carloni, Raffaella; Stramigioli, Stefano

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a generic model and a controller design for a class of underactuated aerial vehicles, namely for unmanned aerial vehicles whose primary support against gravity is thrust. The approach followed is based on energetic consideration and uses the formalisms of port-Hamiltonian

  14. A Comparative Study Of Stock Price Forecasting Using Nonlinear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diteboho Xaba

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study compared the in-sample forecasting accuracy of three forecasting nonlinear models namely: the Smooth Transition Regression (STR model, the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR model and the Markov-switching Autoregressive (MS-AR model. Nonlinearity tests were used to confirm the validity of the assumptions of the study. The study used model selection criteria, SBC to select the optimal lag order and for the selection of appropriate models. The Mean Square Error (MSE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE served as the error measures in evaluating the forecasting ability of the models. The MS-AR models proved to perform well with lower error measures as compared to LSTR and TAR models in most cases.

  15. Asset Pricing Model and the Liquidity Effect: Empirical Evidence in the Brazilian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aims to analyze whether a liquidity premium exists in the Brazilian stock market. As a second goal, we include liquidity as an extra risk factor in asset pricing models and test whether this factor is priced and whether stock returns were explained not only by systematic risk, as proposed by the CAPM, by Fama and French’s (1993 three-factor model, and by Carhart’s (1997 momentum-factor model, but also by liquidity, as suggested by Amihud and Mendelson (1986. To achieve this, we used stock portfolios and five measures of liquidity. Among the asset pricing models tested, the CAPM was the least capable of explaining returns. We found that the inclusion of size and book-to-market factors in the CAPM, a momentum factor in the three-factor model, and a liquidity factor in the four-factor model improve their explanatory power of portfolio returns. In addition, we found that the five-factor model is marginally superior to the other asset pricing models tested.

  16. Stochastic frontier model approach for measuring stock market efficiency with different distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Mustafa, Adli; Baten, Md Azizul

    2012-01-01

    The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation.

  17. Stochastic frontier model approach for measuring stock market efficiency with different distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Zobaer Hasan

    Full Text Available The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation.

  18. THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SELECTING THE ROLLING STOCK FOR PASSENGER BUS TRANSPORTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kostikova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem of choosing buses of different carrying capacity while simultaneously using them on regular urban routes is considered. The indicators that affect the selection of the rolling stock are analyzed. Methods for constructing models, which allow calculating the number of buses of different classes for one city route are proposed. The implementation of the constructed models will make it possible to obtain the savings in capital expenditures, as well as reduce the operational costs of an enterprise.

  19. A model of a fishery with fish stock involving delay equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P; Ducrot, Arnaud

    2009-12-13

    The aim of this paper is to provide a new mathematical model for a fishery by including a stock variable for the resource. This model takes the form of an infinite delay differential equation. It is mathematically studied and a bifurcation analysis of the steady states is fulfilled. Depending on the different parameters of the problem, we show that Hopf bifurcation may occur leading to oscillating behaviours of the system. The mathematical results are finally discussed.

  20. "A Simplified 'Benchmark” Stock-flow Consistent (SFC) Post-Keynesian Growth Model"

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio H. Dos Santos; Gennaro Zezza

    2007-01-01

    Despite being arguably one of the most active areas of research in heterodox macroeconomics, the study of the dynamic properties of stock-flow consistent (SFC) growth models of financially sophisticated economies is still in its early stages. This paper attempts to offer a contribution to this line of research by presenting a simplified Post-Keynesian SFC growth model with well-defined dynamic properties, and using it to shed light on the merits and limitations of the current heterodox SFC li...

  1. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decsion with Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-live...

  2. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  3. The Bekker Model Analysis for Small Robotic Vehicles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gerhart, Grant R

    2004-01-01

    .... This formalism consists or two fundamental equations. The ii ret uses the Coulomb-Mohr law and a linear, one degree or freedom spring/mass/damper model to predict terrain shear rates from maximum vehicle tractive effort...

  4. The Bekker Model Analysis for Small Robotic Vehicles

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gerhart, Grant R

    2004-01-01

    .... This formalism consists of two fundamental equations. The first uses the Coulomb-Mohr law and a linear, one degree of freedom spring/mass/damper model to predict terrain shear rates from maximum vehicle tractive effort...

  5. Business Models, transparency and efficient stock price formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Vali, Edward; Hvidberg, Rene

    has an impact on a company's price formation. In this respect, we analysed whether those companies that publish a lot of information that may support a business model description tend to have a more efficient price formation. Next, we turned to our sample of companies, and via interview-based case...... studies, we managed to draw conclusions on how to construct a comprehensible business model description. The business model explains how the company intends to compete in its market, and thus it gives an account of the characteristics that make the company unique. The business model constitutes...... the platform from which the company prepares and unfolds its strategy. In order to explain this platform and its particular qualities to external interested parties, the description must provide a clear and explicit account of the main determinants of the company's value creation and explain how...

  6. Fractality of profit landscapes and validation of time series models for stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Il Gu; Oh, Gabjin; Kim, Beom Jun

    2013-08-01

    We apply a simple trading strategy for various time series of real and artificial stock prices to understand the origin of fractality observed in the resulting profit landscapes. The strategy contains only two parameters p and q, and the sell (buy) decision is made when the log return is larger (smaller) than p (-q). We discretize the unit square (p,q) ∈ [0,1] × [0,1] into the N × N square grid and the profit Π(p,q) is calculated at the center of each cell. We confirm the previous finding that local maxima in profit landscapes are scattered in a fractal-like fashion: the number M of local maxima follows the power-law form M ˜ Na, but the scaling exponent a is found to differ for different time series. From comparisons of real and artificial stock prices, we find that the fat-tailed return distribution is closely related to the exponent a ≈ 1.6 observed for real stock markets. We suggest that the fractality of profit landscape characterized by a ≈ 1.6 can be a useful measure to validate time series model for stock prices.

  7. Modeling soil organic carbon with Quantile Regression: Dissecting predictors' effects on carbon stocks

    KAUST Repository

    Lombardo, Luigi

    2017-08-13

    Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) estimation is crucial to manage both natural and anthropic ecosystems and has recently been put under the magnifying glass after the Paris agreement 2016 due to its relationship with greenhouse gas. Statistical applications have dominated the SOC stock mapping at regional scale so far. However, the community has hardly ever attempted to implement Quantile Regression (QR) to spatially predict the SOC distribution. In this contribution, we test QR to estimate SOC stock (0-30 $cm$ depth) in the agricultural areas of a highly variable semi-arid region (Sicily, Italy, around 25,000 $km2$) by using topographic and remotely sensed predictors. We also compare the results with those from available SOC stock measurement. The QR models produced robust performances and allowed to recognize dominant effects among the predictors with respect to the considered quantile. This information, currently lacking, suggests that QR can discern predictor influences on SOC stock at specific sub-domains of each predictors. In this work, the predictive map generated at the median shows lower errors than those of the Joint Research Centre and International Soil Reference, and Information Centre benchmarks. The results suggest the use of QR as a comprehensive and effective method to map SOC using legacy data in agro-ecosystems. The R code scripted in this study for QR is included.

  8. Stochastic modeling of stock price process induced from the conjugate heat equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paeng, Seong-Hun

    2015-02-01

    Currency can be considered as a ruler for values of commodities. Then the price is the measured value by the ruler. We can suppose that inflation and variation of exchange rate are caused by variation of the scale of the ruler. In geometry, variation of the scale means that the metric is time-dependent. The conjugate heat equation is the modified heat equation which satisfies the heat conservation law for the time-dependent metric space. We propose a new model of stock prices by using the stochastic process whose transition probability is determined by the kernel of the conjugate heat equation. Our model of stock prices shows how the volatility term is affected by inflation and exchange rate. This model modifies the Black-Scholes equation in light of inflation and exchange rate.

  9. Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mascarin, Anthony [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Hannibal, Ted [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Raghunathan, Anand [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ivanic, Ziga [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Francfort, James [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. The strategic targets were a 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. The baseline vehicle was an average of several available vehicles in this class. Mass and cost breakdowns from several sources were used, including original equipment manufacturers’ (OEMs’) input through U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office programs and public presentations, A2Mac1 LLC’s teardown information, Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. breakdowns in their respective lightweighting studies, and IBIS Associates, Inc.’s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses. Information on lightweighting strategies in this analysis came from these same sources and the ongoing U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc. /Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, and many United States Council for Automotive Research’s/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs.

  10. FASTSim: A Model to Estimate Vehicle Efficiency, Cost and Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Wang, L.; Wood, E.; Lopp, S.; Ramroth, L.

    2015-05-04

    The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

  11. Models of evaluation of public joint-stock property management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakupova, N. M.; Levachkova, S.; Absalyamova, S. G.; Kvon, G.

    2017-12-01

    The paper deals with the models of evaluation of performance of both the management company and the individual subsidiaries on the basis of a combination of elements and multi-parameter and target approaches. The article shows that due to the power of multi-dimensional and multi-directional indicators of financial and economic activity it is necessary to assess the degree of achievement of the objectives with the use of multivariate ordinal model as a set of indicators, ordered by growth so that the maintenance of this order on a long interval of time will ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise in the long term. It is shown that these models can be regarded as the monitoring tools of implementation of strategies and guide the justification effectiveness of implementation of management decisions.

  12. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  13. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  14. Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Fang; Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Gao, Jieping

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents the efforts of using the evolutionary mix-game model, which is a modified form of the agent-based mix-game model, to predict financial time series. Here, we have carried out three methods to improve the original mix-game model by adding the abilities of strategy evolution to agents, and then applying the new model referred to as the evolutionary mix-game model to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The results show that these modifications can improve the accuracy of prediction greatly when proper parameters are chosen.

  15. A small-open-economy model and endogeous money stock

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kodera, Jan; Sladký, Karel; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 1 (2005), s. 27-34 ISSN 0572-3043 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/03/1292; GA AV ČR IAA7075202 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : non-linear dynamic model * money market dynamics * uncovered interest rate parity Subject RIV: AH - Economics

  16. A system dynamics model for stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasada, Ryuta, E-mail: r-kasada@iae.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Kwon, Saerom [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki-ken 319-1195 (Japan); Konishi, Satoshi [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Sakamoto, Yoshiteru; Yamanishi, Toshihiko; Tobita, Kenji [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Rokkasho-mura, Kamikita-gun, Aomori-ken 039-3212 (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • System dynamics model of tritium fuel cycle was developed for analyzing stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plants. • Sensitivity of tritium build-up to breeding ratio parameters has been assessed to two plant concepts having 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power. • D-D start-up absolutely without initial loading of tritium is possible for both of the 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power plant concepts. • Excess stock of tritium is generated by the steady state operation with the value of tritium breeding ratio over unity. - Abstract: In order to analyze self-efficiency of tritium fuel cycle (TFC) and share the systems thinking of TFC among researchers and engineers in the vast area of fusion reactor technology, we develop a system dynamics (SD) TFC model using a commercial software STELLA. The SD-TFC model is illustrated as a pipe diagram which consists of tritium stocks, such as plasma, fuel clean up, isotope separation, fueling with storage and blanket, and pipes connecting among them. By using this model, we survey a possibility of D-D start-up without initial loading of tritium on two kinds of fusion plant having different plasma parameters. The D-D start-up scenario can reduce the necessity of initial loading of tritium through the production in plasma by D-D reaction and in breeding blanket by D-D neutron. The model is also used for considering operation scenario to avoid excess stock of tritium which must be produced at tritium breeding ratio over unity.

  17. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  18. Prediction Model of Dividend Payment of Czech Joint Stock Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sejkora František

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The dividend payment is the very important part of investment decision for many stockholders. Results of this text identify finance factors that influence the management in dividend policy within the examined branch “Production and distribution of electric energy, gas and water”. Seven regressive models were created and they identify and define the effect of individual factors on the dividend payment among individual owner’s types. The retained earnings, the rate of return of invested assets in total and the size of company have the positive effect on the dividend payment. For the purpose of better interpretation the individual factors were quantified in form of the chance that the company will pay the dividend when compared to the fact that the company is not going to pay any dividend. The resulting regressive model was subsequently validated using the classification table and the receiver operating characteristic curve.

  19. Modeling of the Liquidity Evaluation on Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Zhelezko, B.; Siniavskaya, O.

    2012-01-01

    In the article the technology of securities rating creation is worked out. The peculiarities of this technology are fuzzy classification of particular liquidity indices, their subsets picking out and joint significance calculation. These peculiarities allow smoothing of extreme values influence in the generalized rating. The rating model is based on the multicriteria analysis by means of Choquet integral calculation. Method of such analysis is adapted to economic informatics processing. A num...

  20. Capital Liberalization and Imperfect Substitutability between Bonds and Stocks: Reexamination of the Mundell-Fleming Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Joon Kim

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic policies and foreign shocks on the stability of a small open economy, in which equity investment is more crucial than debt investment. The key assumption of our model is that stocks and bonds are imperfect substitutes. Accordingly, financial market equilibrium in our model is achieved only when both money and stock markets are simultaneously in equilibrium. In contrast to the Mundell-Fleming model, fiscal policy is relatively effective under the flexible exchange rate regime, while monetary policy is relatively effective under the fixed exchange rate regime. In the case of foreign shocks such as hike of world interest rates, the flexible exchange rate regime appears more effective in stabilizing the economy because the flexible exchange rate functions as a shock absorber. The empirical evidence from the Korean economy during 1998:4- 2000:11 supports these findings. After the 1997 currency crisis, the Korean monetary authorities adopted the independently floating exchange regime and fully liberalized the capital account. Using a vector autoregressive model consisting of money stock, interest rate, balance of payments and exchange rate, we analyze the effect of an expansionary monetary policy. An increase in money supply decreases the domestic interest rates but the balance of payments turns into surplus. This result confirms that the higher rates of return on equity results in net capital inflows, in spite of lower domestic interest rates, and thus appreciates the domestic currency.

  1. Vehicle - Bridge interaction, comparison of two computing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melcer, Jozef; Kuchárová, Daniela

    2017-07-01

    The paper presents the calculation of the bridge response on the effect of moving vehicle moves along the bridge with various velocities. The multi-body plane computing model of vehicle is adopted. The bridge computing models are created in two variants. One computing model represents the bridge as the Bernoulli-Euler beam with continuously distributed mass and the second one represents the bridge as the lumped mass model with 1 degrees of freedom. The mid-span bridge dynamic deflections are calculated for both computing models. The results are mutually compared and quantitative evaluated.

  2. Study about Markowitz Model Applicability on Romanian Stock Exchange Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Badea

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the application of the analysis on a portfolio made up of eight titles, through determination of the portfolio with absolute minimum variation and of the frontier of efficiency. Thus, using the Markowitz model, the dimensions of the portfolio with minimum absolute variation could be established but its profitability was smaller than the profitability offered by the BET rating. The best strategy to follow in this respect would have been to adopt a passive strategy and to take over the structure of the rating in the investment of portfolio for a good profitability but with a higher risk.

  3. Study about Markowitz Model Applicability on Romanian Stock Exchange Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Badea

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the application of the analysis on a portfolio made up of eight titles, through determination of the portfolio with absolute minimum variation and of the frontier of efficiency. Thus, using the Markowitz model, the dimensions of the portfolio with minimum absolute variation could be established but its profitability was smaller than the profitability offered by the BET rating. The best strategy to follow in this respect would have been to adopt a passive strategy and to take over the structure of the rating in the investment of portfolio for a good profitability but with a higher risk.

  4. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  5. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  6. Accounting for correlated observations in an age-based state-space stock assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders

    2016-01-01

    Fish stock assessment models often relyon size- or age-specific observations that are assumed to be statistically independent of each other. In reality, these observations are not raw observations, but rather they are estimates from a catch-standardization model or similar summary statistics base...... the independence assumption is rejected. Less fluctuating estimates of the fishing mortality is obtained due to a reduced process error. The improved model does not suffer from correlated residuals unlike the independent model, and the variance of forecasts is decreased....

  7. Determining the Best Arch/Garch Model and Comparing JKSE with Stock Index in Developed Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharisya Ayu Effendi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The slow movement of Indonesia economic growth in 2014 due to several factors, in internal factors; due to the high interest rates in Indonesia and external factors from the US which will raise the fed rate this year. However, JKSE shows a sharp increase trend from the beginning of 2014 until the second quarter of 2015 although it remains fluctuate but insignificant. The purpose of this research is to determine the best ARCH/ GARCH model in JKSE and stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI and then compare the JKSE with the stock index in developed countries (FTSE, Nasdaq and STI. The results obtained in this study is to determine the best model of ARCH / GARCH, it is obtained that JKSE is GARCH (1,2, while the FTSE obtains GARCH (2,2, NASDAQ produces the best model which is GARCH (1,1 and STI with GARCH (2,1, and the results of the comparison of JKSE with FTSE, NASDAQ and STI are that even though JKSE fluctuates with moderate levels but the trend shown upward trend. This is different with other stock indexes fluctuated highly and tends to have a downward trend.

  8. Development of vehicle model test-bending of a simple structural surfaces model for automotive vehicle sedan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, M. K. Mohd; Noordin, A.; Ruzali, M. F. S.; Hussen, M. H.; Mustapa@Othman, N.

    2017-04-01

    Simple Structural Surfaces (SSS) method is offered as a means of organizing the process for rationalizing the basic vehicle body structure load paths. The application of this simplified approach is highly beneficial in the development of modern passenger car structure design. In Malaysia, the SSS topic has been widely adopted and seems compulsory in various automotive programs related to automotive vehicle structures in many higher education institutions. However, there is no real physical model of SSS available to gain considerable insight and understanding into the function of each major subassembly in the whole vehicle structures. Based on this motivation, a real physical SSS of sedan model and the corresponding model vehicle tests of bending is proposed in this work. The proposed approach is relatively easy to understand as compared to Finite Element Method (FEM). The results prove that the proposed vehicle model test is useful to physically demonstrate the importance of providing continuous load path using the necessary structural components within the vehicle structures. It is clearly observed that the global bending stiffness reduce significantly when more panels are removed from the complete SSS model. The analysis shows the front parcel shelf is an important subassembly to sustain bending load.

  9. Modeling ground vehicle acoustic signatures for analysis and synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haschke, G.; Stanfield, R.

    1995-01-01

    Security and weapon systems use acoustic sensor signals to classify and identify moving ground vehicles. Developing robust signal processing algorithms for this is expensive, particularly in presence of acoustic clutter or countermeasures. This paper proposes a parametric ground vehicle acoustic signature model to aid the system designer in understanding which signature features are important, developing corresponding feature extraction algorithms and generating low-cost, high-fidelity synthetic signatures for testing. The authors have proposed computer-generated acoustic signatures of armored, tracked ground vehicles to deceive acoustic-sensored smart munitions. They have developed quantitative measures of how accurately a synthetic acoustic signature matches those produced by actual vehicles. This paper describes parameters of the model used to generate these synthetic signatures and suggests methods for extracting these parameters from signatures of valid vehicle encounters. The model incorporates wide-bandwidth and narrow- bandwidth components that are modulated in a pseudo-random fashion to mimic the time dynamics of valid vehicle signatures. Narrow- bandwidth feature extraction techniques estimate frequency, amplitude and phase information contained in a single set of narrow frequency- band harmonics. Wide-bandwidth feature extraction techniques estimate parameters of a correlated-noise-floor model. Finally, the authors propose a method of modeling the time dynamics of the harmonic amplitudes as a means adding necessary time-varying features to the narrow-bandwidth signal components. The authors present results of applying this modeling technique to acoustic signatures recorded during encounters with one armored, tracked vehicle. Similar modeling techniques can be applied to security systems

  10. Adaptive Modeling, Engineering Analysis and Design of Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, Vivek; Hsu, Su-Yuen; Mason, Brian H.; Hicks, Mike D.; Jones, William T.; Sleight, David W.; Chun, Julio; Spangler, Jan L.; Kamhawi, Hilmi; Dahl, Jorgen L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes initial progress towards the development and enhancement of a set of software tools for rapid adaptive modeling, and conceptual design of advanced aerospace vehicle concepts. With demanding structural and aerodynamic performance requirements, these high fidelity geometry based modeling tools are essential for rapid and accurate engineering analysis at the early concept development stage. This adaptive modeling tool was used for generating vehicle parametric geometry, outer mold line and detailed internal structural layout of wing, fuselage, skin, spars, ribs, control surfaces, frames, bulkheads, floors, etc., that facilitated rapid finite element analysis, sizing study and weight optimization. The high quality outer mold line enabled rapid aerodynamic analysis in order to provide reliable design data at critical flight conditions. Example application for structural design of a conventional aircraft and a high altitude long endurance vehicle configuration are presented. This work was performed under the Conceptual Design Shop sub-project within the Efficient Aerodynamic Shape and Integration project, under the former Vehicle Systems Program. The project objective was to design and assess unconventional atmospheric vehicle concepts efficiently and confidently. The implementation may also dramatically facilitate physics-based systems analysis for the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Mission. In addition to providing technology for design and development of unconventional aircraft, the techniques for generation of accurate geometry and internal sub-structure and the automated interface with the high fidelity analysis codes could also be applied towards the design of vehicles for the NASA Exploration and Space Science Mission projects.

  11. Data for developing allometric models and evaluating carbon stocks of the Zambezi Teak Forests in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngoma, Justine; Moors, Eddy; Kruijt, Bart; Speer, James H; Vinya, Royd; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N; Leemans, Rik

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents data on carbon stocks of tropical tree species along a rainfall gradient. The data was generated from the Sesheke, Namwala, and Kabompo sites in Zambia. Though above-ground data was generated for all these three sites, we uprooted trees to determine below-ground biomass from the Sesheke site only. The vegetation was assessed in all three sites. The data includes tree diameter at breast height (DBH), total tree height, wood density, wood dry weight and root dry weight for large (≥ 5 cm DBH) and small (importance-value indices of various species for large and small trees are also determined. Below and above-ground carbon stocks of the surveyed tree species are presented per site. This data were used by Ngoma et al. (2018) [1] to develop above and below-ground biomass models and the reader is referred to this study for additional information, interpretation, and reflection on applying this data.

  12. A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. Fung

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a considerable interest in the Bayesian approach for explaining investors' behaviorial biases by incorporating conservative and representative heuristics when making financial decisions, (see, for example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998. To establish a quantitative link between some important market anomalies and investors' behaviorial biases, Lam, Liu, and Wong (2010 introduced a pseudo-Bayesian approach for developing properties of stock returns, where weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks and stock prices. In response to the recent global financial crisis, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis. Properties of stock returns during the financial crisis and recovery from the crisis are established. The proposed model can be applied to investigate some important market anomalies including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during financial crisis. We also explain in some detail the linkage between these market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases during financial crisis.

  13. Are stock prices too volatile to be justified by the dividend discount model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdeniz, Levent; Salih, Aslıhan Altay; Ok, Süleyman Tuluğ

    2007-03-01

    This study investigates excess stock price volatility using the variance bound framework of LeRoy and Porter [The present-value relation: tests based on implied variance bounds, Econometrica 49 (1981) 555-574] and of Shiller [Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? Am. Econ. Rev. 71 (1981) 421-436.]. The conditional variance bound relationship is examined using cross-sectional data simulated from the general equilibrium asset pricing model of Brock [Asset prices in a production economy, in: J.J. McCall (Ed.), The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (for N.B.E.R.), 1982]. Results show that the conditional variance bounds hold, hence, our hypothesis of the validity of the dividend discount model cannot be rejected. Moreover, in our setting, markets are efficient and stock prices are neither affected by herd psychology nor by the outcome of noise trading by naive investors; thus, we are able to control for market efficiency. Consequently, we show that one cannot infer any conclusions about market efficiency from the unconditional variance bounds tests.

  14. A Hybrid Least Square Support Vector Machine Model with Parameters Optimization for Stock Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Chai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an EMD-LSSVM (empirical mode decomposition least squares support vector machine model to analyze the CSI 300 index. A WD-LSSVM (wavelet denoising least squares support machine is also proposed as a benchmark to compare with the performance of EMD-LSSVM. Since parameters selection is vital to the performance of the model, different optimization methods are used, including simplex, GS (grid search, PSO (particle swarm optimization, and GA (genetic algorithm. Experimental results show that the EMD-LSSVM model with GS algorithm outperforms other methods in predicting stock market movement direction.

  15. Persistent vs. Permanent Income Shocks in the Buffer-Stock Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Druedahl, Jeppe; Jørgensen, Thomas Høgholm

    2017-01-01

    relative risk aversion (CRRA) coefficient. If used for calibration, misspecified preferences could, for example, lead to a serious misjudgment in the value of social insurance mechanisms. Economic behavior, such as the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), of households simulated from the estimated......We investigate the effects of assuming a fully permanent income shock in a standard buffer-stock consumption model, when the true income process is only highly persistent. This assumption is computationally very advantageous, and thus often used, but might be problematic due to the implied...... (misspecified) model is, on the other hand, rather close to that from the correctly specified model....

  16. Modeling of hybrid vehicle fuel economy and fuel engine efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei

    "Near-CV" (i.e., near-conventional vehicle) hybrid vehicles, with an internal combustion engine, and a supplementary storage with low-weight, low-energy but high-power capacity, are analyzed. This design avoids the shortcoming of the "near-EV" and the "dual-mode" hybrid vehicles that need a large energy storage system (in terms of energy capacity and weight). The small storage is used to optimize engine energy management and can provide power when needed. The energy advantage of the "near-CV" design is to reduce reliance on the engine at low power, to enable regenerative braking, and to provide good performance with a small engine. The fuel consumption of internal combustion engines, which might be applied to hybrid vehicles, is analyzed by building simple analytical models that reflect the engines' energy loss characteristics. Both diesel and gasoline engines are modeled. The simple analytical models describe engine fuel consumption at any speed and load point by describing the engine's indicated efficiency and friction. The engine's indicated efficiency and heat loss are described in terms of several easy-to-obtain engine parameters, e.g., compression ratio, displacement, bore and stroke. Engine friction is described in terms of parameters obtained by fitting available fuel measurements on several diesel and spark-ignition engines. The engine models developed are shown to conform closely to experimental fuel consumption and motored friction data. A model of the energy use of "near-CV" hybrid vehicles with different storage mechanism is created, based on simple algebraic description of the components. With powertrain downsizing and hybridization, a "near-CV" hybrid vehicle can obtain a factor of approximately two in overall fuel efficiency (mpg) improvement, without considering reductions in the vehicle load.

  17. Nationwide impact and vehicle to grid application of electric vehicles mobility using an activity based model

    OpenAIRE

    Álvaro, Roberto; González, Jairo; Fraile Ardanuy, José Jesús; Knapen, Luk; Janssens, Davy

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the impact of electric mobility on the transmission grid in Flanders region (Belgium), using a micro-simulation activity based models. These models are used to provide temporal and spatial estimation of energy and power demanded by electric vehicles (EVs) in different mobility zones. The increment in the load demand due to electric mobility is added to the background load demand in these mobility areas and the effects over the transmission substations are analyzed. From t...

  18. Asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices using index-based model of A-MFDFA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Minhyuk; Song, Jae Wook; Park, Ji Hwan; Chang, Woojin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • ‘Index-based A-MFDFA’ model is proposed to assess the asymmetric multi-fractality. • The asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices are investigated using ‘Index-based’ and ‘Return-based’ A-MFDFA. • The asymmetric feature is more significantly identified by ‘Index-based’ model than ‘return-based’ model. • Source of multi-fractality and time-varying features are analyzed. - Abstract: We detect the asymmetric multi-fractality in the U.S. stock indices based on the asymmetric multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MFDFA). Instead using the conventional return-based approach, we propose the index-based model of A-MFDFA where the trend based on the evolution of stock index rather than stock price return plays a role for evaluating the asymmetric scaling behaviors. The results show that the multi-fractal behaviors of the U.S. stock indices are asymmetric and the index-based model detects the asymmetric multi-fractality better than return-based model. We also discuss the source of multi-fractality and its asymmetry and observe that the multi-fractal asymmetry in the U.S. stock indices has a time-varying feature where the degree of multi-fractality and asymmetry increase during the financial crisis.

  19. MOVES (MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION SIMULATOR) MODEL ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A computer model, intended to eventually replace the MOBILE model and to incorporate the NONROAD model, that will provide the ability to estimate criteria and toxic air pollutant emission factors and emission inventories that are specific to the areas and time periods of interest, at scales ranging from local to national. Development of a new emission factor and inventory model for mobile source emissions. The model will be used by air pollution modelers within EPA, and at the State and local levels.

  20. An integrated vendor-buyer model with stock-dependent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Thorstenson, Anders; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

    in a display area. The end-customer demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. With the proposed model we determine the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize...... total supply chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that it is more profitable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock-dependent. The analysis also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

  1. An Integrated Vendor-Buyer Model with Stock-Dependent Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorstenson, Anders; Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

    2009-01-01

    in the buyer's warehouse. The demand is assumed to be positively dependent on the amount of items shown in the display area. The proposed model determines the buyer's optimal shipment quantity and number of shipments, as well as the vendor's optimal production batch. The objective is to maximize total supply......-chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that as long as the maximum display area is not used, it is more valuable for the buyer and the vendor to cooperate in situations when the demand is more stock- dependent. It also shows the effect of double marginalization in this integrated vendor-buyer model....

  2. U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building Models of the National Building Stock

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deru, M.; Field, K.; Studer, D.; Benne, K.; Griffith, B.; Torcellini, P.; Liu, B.; Halverson, M.; Winiarski, D.; Rosenberg, M.; Yazdanian, M.; Huang, J.; Crawley, D.

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Program has set the aggressive goal of producing marketable net-zero energy buildings by 2025. This goal will require collaboration between the DOE laboratories and the building industry. We developed standard or reference energy models for the most common commercial buildings to serve as starting points for energy efficiency research. These models represent fairly realistic buildings and typical construction practices. Fifteen commercial building types and one multifamily residential building were determined by consensus between DOE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and represent approximately two-thirds of the commercial building stock.

  3. Design and analysis of experiments in ANFIS modeling for stock price prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Alizadeh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available At the computational point of view, a fuzzy system has a layered structure, similar to an artificial neural network (ANN of the radial basis function type. ANN learning algorithms can be employed for optimization of parameters in a fuzzy system. This neuro-fuzzy modeling approach has preference to explain solutions over completely black-box models, such as ANN. In this paper, we implement the design of experiment (DOE technique to identify the significant parameters in the design of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS for stock price prediction.

  4. Vehicle-manipulator systems modeling for simulation, analysis, and control

    CERN Document Server

    From, Pal Johan; Pettersen, Kristin Ytterstad

    2014-01-01

    Furthering the aim of reducing human exposure to hazardous environments, this monograph presents a detailed study of the modeling and control of vehicle-manipulator systems. The text shows how complex interactions can be performed at remote locations using systems that combine the manipulability of robotic manipulators with the ability of mobile robots to locomote over large areas.  The first part studies the kinematics and dynamics of rigid bodies and standard robotic manipulators and can be used as an introduction to robotics focussing on robust mathematical modeling. The monograph then moves on to study vehicle-manipulator systems in great detail with emphasis on combining two different configuration spaces in a mathematically sound way. Robustness of these systems is extremely important and Modeling and Control of Vehicle-manipulator Systems effectively represents the dynamic equations using a mathematically robust framework. Several tools from Lie theory and differential geometry are used to obtain glob...

  5. Some considerations in applying stock-recruitment models to multiple-age spawning populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawler, P.J.

    1988-01-01

    Several approaches used during the Hudson River power plant hearings (1977-1980) to permit quantitative estimation of the impact of power plant operation on the river's striped bass population are presented. The Ricker stock-recruitment model was adopted as a starting point to provide a reasonable working conceptualization of the stock-recruitment processes operating in this river. This model was then modified in a variety of ways to reflect multiple-age spawning by striped bass, and the results were fit to data on the river's commercial striped bass catch and effort, organized to reflect certain average age distribution parameters. Environmental variation in the system, represented in an overall fashion by the spring and summer variation in the river's freshwater flow, and the effect of certain assumed modes of cannibalism were also included in these analyses. Quantitative estimates of the Ricker parameters alpha and beta representing compensatory reserve and density dependent mortality, respectively, in the system were extracted from these fits. In addition, an approach to modeling the influence of certain density-dependent and density-independent growth factors on the various modes of mortality is presented. All of the above procedures are directed toward estimating the change a given impact may induce on the stock-recruitment model parameters alpha and beta. These changes in alpha and beta are used in various equilibrium reduction models to estimate the percentage change in the equilibrium spawning population that, all other things remaining equal, can be expected in the presence of the impact under study. 15 refs., 3 tabs

  6. Model Predictive Control for Connected Hybrid Electric Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijiang Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new model predictive control system for connected hybrid electric vehicles to improve fuel economy. The new features of this study are as follows. First, the battery charge and discharge profile and the driving velocity profile are simultaneously optimized. One is energy management for HEV for Pbatt; the other is for the energy consumption minimizing problem of acc control of two vehicles. Second, a system for connected hybrid electric vehicles has been developed considering varying drag coefficients and the road gradients. Third, the fuel model of a typical hybrid electric vehicle is developed using the maps of the engine efficiency characteristics. Fourth, simulations and analysis (under different parameters, i.e., road conditions, vehicle state of charge, etc. are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the method to achieve higher fuel efficiency. The model predictive control problem is solved using numerical computation method: continuation and generalized minimum residual method. Computer simulation results reveal improvements in fuel economy using the proposed control method.

  7. An Improved Car-Following Model in Vehicle Networking Based on Network Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Y. Kong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle networking is a system to realize information interoperability between vehicles and people, vehicles and roads, vehicles and vehicles, and cars and transport facilities, through the network information exchange, in order to achieve the effective monitoring of the vehicle and traffic flow. Realizing information interoperability between vehicles and vehicles, which can affect the traffic flow, is an important application of network control system (NCS. In this paper, a car-following model using vehicle networking theory is established, based on network control principle. The car-following model, which is an improvement of the traditional traffic model, describes the traffic in vehicle networking condition. The impact that vehicle networking has on the traffic flow is quantitatively assessed in a particular scene of one-way, no lane changing highway. The examples show that the capacity of the road is effectively enhanced by using vehicle networking.

  8. Regional on-road vehicle running emissions modeling and evaluation for conventional and alternative vehicle technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher; Zhai, Haibo; Rouphail, Nagui M

    2009-11-01

    This study presents a methodology for estimating high-resolution, regional on-road vehicle emissions and the associated reductions in air pollutant emissions from vehicles that utilize alternative fuels or propulsion technologies. The fuels considered are gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. The technologies considered are internal combustion or compression engines, hybrids, fuel cell, and electric. Road link-based emission models are developed using modal fuel use and emission rates applied to facility- and speed-specific driving cycles. For an urban case study, passenger cars were found to be the largest sources of HC, CO, and CO(2) emissions, whereas trucks contributed the largest share of NO(x) emissions. When alternative fuel and propulsion technologies were introduced in the fleet at a modest market penetration level of 27%, their emission reductions were found to be 3-14%. Emissions for all pollutants generally decreased with an increase in the market share of alternative vehicle technologies. Turnover of the light duty fleet to newer Tier 2 vehicles reduced emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) substantially. However, modest improvements in fuel economy may be offset by VMT growth and reductions in overall average speed.

  9. Mathematical Modelling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Sarwar

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available UAVs (Unmanned Arial Vehicleis UAVs are emerging as requirement of time and it is expected that in next five to ten years, complete air space will be flooded with UAVs, committed in varied assignments ranging from military, scientific and commercial usage. Non availability of human pilot inside UAV necessitates the requirement of an onboard autopilot in order to maintain desired flight profile against any unexpected disturbance and/or parameter variations. Design of such an autopilot requires an accurate mathematical model of UAV. The aim of this paper is to present a consolidated picture of UAV model. This paper first consolidates complete 6 DOF Degree of Freedom equations of motion into a nonlinear mathematical model and its simulation using model parameters of a real UAV. Model is then linearized into longitudinal and lateral modes. State space models of linearized modes are simulated and analyzed for stability parameters. The developed model can be used to design autopilot for UAV

  10. Genetic Algorithm Based Microscale Vehicle Emissions Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sicong Zhu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a need to match emission estimations accuracy with the outputs of transport models. The overall error rate in long-term traffic forecasts resulting from strategic transport models is likely to be significant. Microsimulation models, whilst high-resolution in nature, may have similar measurement errors if they use the outputs of strategic models to obtain traffic demand predictions. At the microlevel, this paper discusses the limitations of existing emissions estimation approaches. Emission models for predicting emission pollutants other than CO2 are proposed. A genetic algorithm approach is adopted to select the predicting variables for the black box model. The approach is capable of solving combinatorial optimization problems. Overall, the emission prediction results reveal that the proposed new models outperform conventional equations in terms of accuracy and robustness.

  11. Volatility forecasting with the wavelet transformation algorithm GARCH model: Evidence from African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Tahir Ismail

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The daily returns of four African countries' stock market indices for the period January 2, 2000, to December 31, 2014, were employed to compare the GARCH(1,1 model and a newly proposed Maximal Overlap Discreet Wavelet Transform (MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model. The results showed that although both models fit the returns data well, the forecast produced by the GARCH(1,1 model underestimates the observed returns whereas the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model generates an accurate forecast value of the observed returns. The results generally showed that the newly proposed MODWT-GARCH(1,1 model best fits returns series for these African countries. Hence the proposed MODWT-GARCH should be applied on other context to further verify its validity.

  12. Forecasting performance of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR model on travel and leisure stock index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Usman M. Umer

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Travel and leisure recorded a consecutive robust growth and become among the fastest economic sectors in the world. Various forecasting models are proposed by researchers that serve as an early recommendation for investors and policy makers. Numerous studies proposed distinct forecasting models to predict the dynamics of this sector and provide early recommendation for investors and policy makers. In this paper, we compare the performance of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR and linear autoregressive (AR models using monthly returns of Turkey and FTSE travel and leisure index from April 1997 to August 2016. MSCI world index used as a proxy of the overall market. The result shows that nonlinear LSTAR model cannot improve the out-of-sample forecast of linear AR model. This finding demonstrates little to be gained from using LSTAR model in the prediction of travel and leisure stock index. Keywords: Nonlinear time-series, Out-of-sample forecasting, Smooth transition autoregressive, Travel and leisure

  13. Modeling and simulation of dust behaviors behind a moving vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingfang

    Simulation of physically realistic complex dust behaviors is a difficult and attractive problem in computer graphics. A fast, interactive and visually convincing model of dust behaviors behind moving vehicles is very useful in computer simulation, training, education, art, advertising, and entertainment. In my dissertation, an experimental interactive system has been implemented for the simulation of dust behaviors behind moving vehicles. The system includes physically-based models, particle systems, rendering engines and graphical user interface (GUI). I have employed several vehicle models including tanks, cars, and jeeps to test and simulate in different scenarios and conditions. Calm weather, winding condition, vehicle turning left or right, and vehicle simulation controlled by users from the GUI are all included. I have also tested the factors which play against the physical behaviors and graphics appearances of the dust particles through GUI or off-line scripts. The simulations are done on a Silicon Graphics Octane station. The animation of dust behaviors is achieved by physically-based modeling and simulation. The flow around a moving vehicle is modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques. I implement a primitive variable and pressure-correction approach to solve the three dimensional incompressible Navier Stokes equations in a volume covering the moving vehicle. An alternating- direction implicit (ADI) method is used for the solution of the momentum equations, with a successive-over- relaxation (SOR) method for the solution of the Poisson pressure equation. Boundary conditions are defined and simplified according to their dynamic properties. The dust particle dynamics is modeled using particle systems, statistics, and procedure modeling techniques. Graphics and real-time simulation techniques, such as dynamics synchronization, motion blur, blending, and clipping have been employed in the rendering to achieve realistic appearing dust

  14. Simulation modeling of wheeled vehicle dynamics on the stand "Roller"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. O. Kotiev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The tests are an integral part of the wheeled vehicle design, manufacturing, and operation. The need for their conducting arises from the research and experimental activities to assess the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the vehicles in general, as well as the individual components and assemblies. It is obvious that a variety of design features of wheeled vehicles request a development of methods both for experimental studies and for creating the original bench equipment for these purposes.The main positive feature of bench tests of automotive engineering is a broad capability to control the combinations of traction loads, speed rates, and external input conditions. Here, the steady state conditions can be used for a long time, allowing all the necessary measurements to be made, including those with video and photo recording experiment.It is known that the benefits of test "M" type (using a roller dynamometer include a wide range of test modes, which do not depend on the climatic conditions, as well as a capability to use a computer-aided testing programs. At the same time, it is known that the main drawback of bench tests of full-size vehicle is that the tire rolling conditions on the drum mismatch to the real road pavements, which are difficult to simulate on the drum surface. This problem can be solved owing to wheeled vehicle tests at the benches "Roller" to be, in efficiency, the most preferable research method. The article gives a detailed presentation of developed at BMSTU approach to its solving.Problem of simulation mathematical modeling has been solved for the vehicle with the wheel formula 8 × 8, and individual wheel-drive.The simulation results have led to the conclusion that the proposed principle to simulate a vehicle rolling on a smooth non-deformable support base using a bench " Roller " by simulation modeling is efficient.

  15. Development and applications of GREET 2.7 -- The Transportation Vehicle-Cycle Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnham, A.; Wang, M. Q.; Wu, Y.

    2006-01-01

    Argonne National Laboratory has developed a vehicle-cycle module for the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. The fuel-cycle GREET model has been cited extensively and contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations. The vehicle-cycle model evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling. With the addition of the vehicle-cycle module, the GREET model now provides a comprehensive, lifecycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles). This report details the development and application of the GREET 2.7 model. The current model includes six vehicles--a conventional material and a lightweight material version of a mid-size passenger car with the following powertrain systems: internal combustion engine, internal combustion engine with hybrid configuration, and fuel cell with hybrid configuration. The model calculates the energy use and emissions that are required for vehicle component production; battery production; fluid production and use; and vehicle assembly, disposal, and recycling. This report also presents vehicle-cycle modeling results. In order to put these results in a broad perspective, the fuel-cycle model (GREET 1.7) was used in conjunction with the vehicle-cycle model (GREET 2.7) to estimate total energy-cycle results

  16. Development and applications of GREET 2.7 -- The Transportation Vehicle-CycleModel.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burnham, A.; Wang, M. Q.; Wu, Y.

    2006-12-20

    Argonne National Laboratory has developed a vehicle-cycle module for the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. The fuel-cycle GREET model has been cited extensively and contains data on fuel cycles and vehicle operations. The vehicle-cycle model evaluates the energy and emission effects associated with vehicle material recovery and production, vehicle component fabrication, vehicle assembly, and vehicle disposal/recycling. With the addition of the vehicle-cycle module, the GREET model now provides a comprehensive, lifecycle-based approach to compare the energy use and emissions of conventional and advanced vehicle technologies (e.g., hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles). This report details the development and application of the GREET 2.7 model. The current model includes six vehicles--a conventional material and a lightweight material version of a mid-size passenger car with the following powertrain systems: internal combustion engine, internal combustion engine with hybrid configuration, and fuel cell with hybrid configuration. The model calculates the energy use and emissions that are required for vehicle component production; battery production; fluid production and use; and vehicle assembly, disposal, and recycling. This report also presents vehicle-cycle modeling results. In order to put these results in a broad perspective, the fuel-cycle model (GREET 1.7) was used in conjunction with the vehicle-cycle model (GREET 2.7) to estimate total energy-cycle results.

  17. Soil Models and Vehicle System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-07

    been further adapted to the Kayenta model [52]. The Sandia GeoModel has yet to be included in tire-terrain interaction studies. However, the...stiffness in one plane, and there is a transversely anisotropic version of the Kayenta model. Anisotropy may also be addressed using fabric tensors [53...71 [52] Brannon, R.M., Fossum, A.F., and Strack, O.E., 2009, “ KAYENTA : Theory and User’s Guide”, Sandia Report

  18. Modelling and Simulation of Cooperative Control for Bus Rapid Transit Vehicle Platoon in a Connected Vehicle Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahui Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to develop a cooperative control model for improving the operational efficiency of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT vehicles. The model takes advantage of the emerging connected vehicle technology. A connected vehicle centre is established to assign a specific reservation time interval and transmit the corresponding dynamic speed guidance to each BRT vehicle. Furthermore, a set of constraints have been set up to avoid bus queuing and waiting phenomena in downstream BRT stations. Therefore, many BRT vehicles are strategically guided to form a platoon, which can pass through an intersection with no impedance. An actual signalized intersection along the Guangzhou BRT corridor is employed to verify and assess the cooperative control model in various traffic conditions. The simulation-based evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can reduce delays, decrease the number of stops, and improve the sustainability of the BRT vehicles.

  19. Testing the Logistics Model of Supplying Military Vehicles with Spare Parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Spudić

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The use of advanced transport means understands alsotheir supply by spare and consumable parts. In order to solvethe problem of the required quantities, costs of purchase andstorage of the parts, it is necessary to solve the problem of stocksmanagement. The wear of tyres for military vehicles in extremeexploitation conditions is of random character. How fast thetyres will wear on the all-ten·ain and heavy motor vehicle dependson the driver's skill and the external conditions (weather,terrain. All the conditions are of random character and in orderto determine as accurately as possible the wear of tyres it isnecessary to monitor the wear of tyres within a certain time period,and to find the approximate probability of tyre wear in thefuture period of time. When the probability of tyre wear is determined,stochastic supply management model is used to calculatethe value of the stocks which allows optimal planning ofstocks of spare parts at minimal costs. The stochastic model allowsoptimal calculation for the purchase of consumable partsof transport means whose consumption depends on the randomconditions and events.

  20. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mascarin, Anthony [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Hannibal, Ted [IBIS Associates, Inc., Waltham, MA (United States); Raghunathan, Anand [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Ivanic, Ziga [Energetics Inc., Columbia, MD (United States); Clark, Michael [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research’s/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.’s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  1. Vehicle Lightweighting: Mass Reduction Spectrum Analysis and Process Cost Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mascarin, Anthony; Hannibal, Ted; Raghunathan, Anand; Ivanic, Ziga; Clark, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, Materials area commissioned a study to model and assess manufacturing economics of alternative design and production strategies for a series of lightweight vehicle concepts. In the first two phases of this effort examined combinations of strategies aimed at achieving strategic targets of 40% and a 45% mass reduction relative to a standard North American midsize passenger sedan at an effective cost of $3.42 per pound (lb) saved. These results have been reported in the Idaho National Laboratory report INL/EXT-14-33863 entitled Vehicle Lightweighting: 40% and 45% Weight Savings Analysis: Technical Cost Modeling for Vehicle Lightweighting published in March 2015. The data for these strategies were drawn from many sources, including Lotus Engineering Limited and FEV, Inc. lightweighting studies, U.S. Department of Energy-funded Vehma International of America, Inc./Ford Motor Company Multi-Material Lightweight Prototype Vehicle Demonstration Project, the Aluminum Association Transportation Group, many United States Council for Automotive Research's/United States Automotive Materials Partnership LLC lightweight materials programs, and IBIS Associates, Inc.'s decades of experience in automotive lightweighting and materials substitution analyses.

  2. An efficient background modeling approach based on vehicle detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jia-yan; Song, Li-mei; Xi, Jiang-tao; Guo, Qing-hua

    2015-10-01

    The existing Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) which is widely used in vehicle detection suffers inefficiency in detecting foreground image during the model phase, because it needs quite a long time to blend the shadows in the background. In order to overcome this problem, an improved method is proposed in this paper. First of all, each frame is divided into several areas(A, B, C and D), Where area A, B, C and D are decided by the frequency and the scale of the vehicle access. For each area, different new learning rate including weight, mean and variance is applied to accelerate the elimination of shadows. At the same time, the measure of adaptive change for Gaussian distribution is taken to decrease the total number of distributions and save memory space effectively. With this method, different threshold value and different number of Gaussian distribution are adopted for different areas. The results show that the speed of learning and the accuracy of the model using our proposed algorithm surpass the traditional GMM. Probably to the 50th frame, interference with the vehicle has been eliminated basically, and the model number only 35% to 43% of the standard, the processing speed for every frame approximately has a 20% increase than the standard. The proposed algorithm has good performance in terms of elimination of shadow and processing speed for vehicle detection, it can promote the development of intelligent transportation, which is very meaningful to the other Background modeling methods.

  3. Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2018-06-01

    The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen-Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

  4. An integrated vendor-buyer model with stock-dependent demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sajadieh, Mohsen S.; Thorstenson, Anders; Akbari Jokar, Mohammad R.

    2010-01-01

    We develop an integrated vendor-buyer model for a two-stage supply chain. The vendor manufactures the product and delivers it in a number of equal-sized batches to the buyer. The items delivered are presented to the end customers in a display area. Demand is assumed to be positively dependent...... on the amount of items displayed. The objective is to maximize total supply chain profit. The numerical analysis shows that buyer-vendor coordination is more profitable in situations when demand is more stock dependent. It also shows that the effect of double marginalization provides a link between the non...

  5. AFSC/REFM: Isolation by distance (IBD) Alaskan fish stock structure modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — There is no established management protocol for stocks subject to isolation-by-distance (IBD) stock structure. This study examines several management strategies for...

  6. Dr. von Braun With a Model of a Launch Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    1950-01-01

    Dr. von Braun stands beside a model of the upper stage (Earth-returnable stage) of the three-stage launch vehicle built for the series of the motion picture productions of space flight produced by Walt Disney in the mid-1950's.

  7. Deriving vehicle-to-grid business models from consumer preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohnsack, René; van den Hoed, Robert; Oude Reimer, Hugo

    2015-01-01

    Combining electric cars with utility services seems to be a natural fit and holds the promise to tackle various mobility as well as electricity challenges at the same time. So far no viable business model for vehicle-to-grid technology has emerged, raising the question which characteristics a

  8. A national scale estimation of soil carbon stocks of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea: a modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, K.; Park, C.; Ryu, S.; Lee, K.; Yi, M.; Kim, C.; Park, G.; Kim, R.; Son, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Soil carbon (C) stocks of Pinus densiflora forests in Korea were estimated using a generic forest soil C dynamics model based on the process of dead organic matter input and decomposition. Annual input of dead organic matter to the soil was determined by stand biomass and turnover rates of tree components (stem, branch, twig, foliage, coarse root, and fine root). The model was designed to have a simplified structure consisting of three dead organic matter C (DOC) pools (aboveground woody debris (AWD), belowground woody debris (BWD), and litter (LTR) pool) and one soil organic C (SOC) pool. C flows in the model were regulated by six turnover rates of stem, branch, twig, foliage, coarse root, and fine root, and four decay rates of AWD, BWD, LTR, and SOC. To simulate the soil C stocks of P. densiflora forests, statistical data of forest land area (1,339,791 ha) and growing stock (191,896,089 m3) sorted by region (nine provinces and seven metropolitan cities) and stand age class (11 to 20- (II), 21 to 30- (III), 31 to 40- (IV), 41 to 50- (V), and 51 to 60-year-old (VI)) were used. The growing stock of each stand age class was calculated for every region and representable site index was also determined by consulting the yield table. Other model parameters related to the stand biomass, annual input of dead organic matter and decomposition were estimated from previous studies conducted on P. densiflora forests in Korea, which were also applied for model validation. As a result of simulation, total soil C stock of P. densiflora forests were estimated as 53.9 MtC and soil C stocks per unit area ranged from 28.71 to 47.81 tC ha-1 within the soil depth of 30 cm. Also, soil C stocks in the P. densiflora forests of age class II, III, IV, V, and VI were 16,780,818, 21,450,812, 12,677,872, 2,366,939, and 578,623 tC, respectively, and highly related to the distribution of age classes. Soil C stocks per unit area initially decreased with stand age class and started to increase

  9. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  10. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....

  11. Modeling and Analyzing Electric Vehicle Charging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ove; Krogh, Benjamin Bjerre; Thomsen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    , such as wind turbines. To both enable a smart grid and the use of renewable energy, it is essential to know when and where an EV is plugged into the power grid and what battery capacity is available. In this paper, we present a generic spatio-temporal data-warehouse model for storing detailed information...... on all aspects of charging EVs, including integration with the electricity prices from a spot market. The proposed data warehouse is fully implemented and currently contains 2.5 years of charging data from 176 EVs. We describe the date warehouse model and the implementation including complex operations...

  12. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  13. A model predictive control approach combined unscented Kalman filter vehicle state estimation in intelligent vehicle trajectory tracking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiao Yu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Trajectory tracking and state estimation are significant in the motion planning and intelligent vehicle control. This article focuses on the model predictive control approach for the trajectory tracking of the intelligent vehicles and state estimation of the nonlinear vehicle system. The constraints of the system states are considered when applying the model predictive control method to the practical problem, while 4-degree-of-freedom vehicle model and unscented Kalman filter are proposed to estimate the vehicle states. The estimated states of the vehicle are used to provide model predictive control with real-time control and judge vehicle stability. Furthermore, in order to decrease the cost of solving the nonlinear optimization, the linear time-varying model predictive control is used at each time step. The effectiveness of the proposed vehicle state estimation and model predictive control method is tested by driving simulator. The results of simulations and experiments show that great and robust performance is achieved for trajectory tracking and state estimation in different scenarios.

  14. Investigating the Influence Relationship Models for Stocks in Indian Equity Market: A Weighted Network Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharjee, Biplab; Shafi, Muhammad; Acharjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    The socio-economic systems today possess high levels of both interconnectedness and interdependencies, and such system-level relationships behave very dynamically. In such situations, it is all around perceived that influence is a perplexing power that has an overseeing part in affecting the dynamics and behaviours of involved ones. As a result of the force & direction of influence, the transformative change of one entity has a cogent aftereffect on the other entities in the system. The current study employs directed weighted networks for investigating the influential relationship patterns existent in a typical equity market as an outcome of inter-stock interactions happening at the market level, the sectorial level and the industrial level. The study dataset is derived from 335 constituent stocks of 'Standard & Poor Bombay Stock Exchange 500 index' and study period is 1st June 2005 to 30th June 2015. The study identifies the set of most dynamically influential stocks & their respective temporal pattern at three hierarchical levels: the complete equity market, different sectors, and constituting industry segments of those sectors. A detailed influence relationship analysis is performed for the sectorial level network of the construction sector, and it was found that stocks belonging to the cement industry possessed high influence within this sector. Also, the detailed network analysis of construction sector revealed that it follows scale-free characteristics and power law distribution. In the industry specific influence relationship analysis for cement industry, methods based on threshold filtering and minimum spanning tree were employed to derive a set of sub-graphs having temporally stable high-correlation structure over this ten years period.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

  16. APLIKASI MODEL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS UNTUK STOCK FORECASTING DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Herdinata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research showed the applicat ion of model Art if icial Neural Networks (ANN orJaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST at the f ield of monetary science, especially for the applicat ion off inancial forecast ing. ANN or JST was a new alternat ive for the applicat ion of f inancialforecast ing.The purpose of this research was to know whether the stock index instantaneouslyand fully ref lect historical informat ion, in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. The research usedcomparison between return of technical t rading rule based Art if icial Neural Networks (ANNmodel and return of buy & hold st rategy. The result showed that the weakness form ofef f icient market hypothesis was rejected in the Indonesian capital market . Expectat ion ofthis research was giving informat ion and securing the market perpet rators that st ill enabledto get abnormal of return by doing commerce in chnical through forecast ing of model Art ificial Neural Networks (ANN or Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan ( JST.

  17. A model for the evaluation of systemic risk in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2011-06-01

    Systemic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market, differing from the risk associated with any particular individual or a group pertaining to the system, which may include banks, government, brokers, and creditors. After the 2008 financial crisis, a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. Although it is very difficult to predict when people begin to lose confidence in a financial system, it is possible to model the relationships among the stock markets of different countries and perform a Monte Carlo-type analysis to study the contagion effect. Because some larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones, a model inspired by a catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions, reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process, catalyzers may be used. In this work, a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. More specifically, the Hang Seng and Dow Jones indices are assumed to dominate Ibovespa (the Brazilian Stock Market index), such that the indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentrations of the reagents and the indices of smaller markets as concentrations of products. The role of the catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The actual data used to fit the model parameter consisted of the Hang Seng index, Dow Jones index, and Ibovespa, since 1993. “What if” analyses were carried out considering some intervention policies.

  18. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  20. Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models

    OpenAIRE

    Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, w...

  1. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  2. Simulation testing the robustness of stock assessment models to error: some results from the ICES strategic initiative on stock assessment methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deroba, J. J.; Butterworth, D. S.; Methot, R. D.

    2015-01-01

    The World Conference on Stock Assessment Methods (July 2013) included a workshop on testing assessment methods through simulations. The exercise was made up of two steps applied to datasets from 14 representative fish stocks from around the world. Step 1 involved applying stock assessments to dat...

  3. Analysis of crashes using FE vehicle models. Relations between vehicle types and crash characteristics; Yugen yoso model wo mochiita sharyo no shototsu kaiseki. Sharyo type to shototsu tokusei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takatori, O. [Japan Automobile Research Institute Inc., Tsukuba (Japan)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the crash characteristics of vehicles under the condition of real-world accidents. This paper pays attention to the differences in the crash characteristics of a vehicle colliding with a vehicle which is a different type. Vehicles on the market can be divided broadly into two vehicle structures, monocoque structure and frame structure. Monocoque structure is mainly used for passenger vehicles and frame structure is for recreational vehicles (RV). In recent years, RV has been a large seller on the market. So accidents between passenger vehicles and a RVs occur frequently. The analysis of experimental data and computer simulation, which is predicated on the experimental data, was carried out for this study. In the analysis of experimental data, barrier force data from the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) were analyzed. The FE passenger vehicle model which is based on systematic validation tests was used for the computer simulation of car-to-car collisions. (author)

  4. Modeling Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure to Support Passenger Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Muratori

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The year 2014 marked hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs first becoming commercially available in California, where significant investments are being made to promote the adoption of alternative transportation fuels. A refueling infrastructure network that guarantees adequate coverage and expands in line with vehicle sales is required for FCEVs to be successfully adopted by private customers. In this paper, we provide an overview of modelling methodologies used to project hydrogen refueling infrastructure requirements to support FCEV adoption, and we describe, in detail, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s scenario evaluation and regionalization analysis (SERA model. As an example, we use SERA to explore two alternative scenarios of FCEV adoption: one in which FCEV deployment is limited to California and several major cities in the United States; and one in which FCEVs reach widespread adoption, becoming a major option as passenger vehicles across the entire country. Such scenarios can provide guidance and insights for efforts required to deploy the infrastructure supporting transition toward different levels of hydrogen use as a transportation fuel for passenger vehicles in the United States.

  5. Beam response analysis of moving vehicle with half car modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badriyah, A.N.; Arifianto, D.; Susatio, Y.

    2016-01-01

    There were several tragedies concerning damages of bridge which seem to be sooner than the predicted period. One of hypothesis in this situation is an addition of vibration caused by long vehicle such as super long truck which has huge force transferred into the bridge and its long body causes more vibration due to phase difference of front and rear tire. The selected method which is used in this problem is using a simulation for modeling a bridge- vehicle system using half car vehicle model. The simulation is done using ANSYS Workbench 15.0 with some variation such us the thickness of beam and its supports. There are 3 kind of variation used in the thickness variety which are 2 m, 1 m, and 0.5 m. While in supports variation, we have fixed support, knife-edge support, and slider support. The results show that there is addition of vibration caused by long vehicle. It is proved by an oscillation which is showed in every response of beam's total deformation. Highest total deformation is achieved in slider support beam of 0.5 thicknesses, 1.08 mm in 1.12 second. First ripple seen in responses is at 0.84 second. Meanwhile, response of knife-edge and fixed support beam show a similarity. The ripple in this situation is caused by beat modulation from the front and rear tire. (paper)

  6. Beam response analysis of moving vehicle with half car modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badriyah, A. N.; Arifianto, D.; Susatio, Y.

    2016-11-01

    There were several tragedies concerning damages of bridge which seem to be sooner than the predicted period. One of hypothesis in this situation is an addition of vibration caused by long vehicle such as super long truck which has huge force transferred into the bridge and its long body causes more vibration due to phase difference of front and rear tire. The selected method which is used in this problem is using a simulation for modeling a bridge- vehicle system using half car vehicle model. The simulation is done using ANSYS Workbench 15.0 with some variation such us the thickness of beam and its supports. There are 3 kind of variation used in the thickness variety which are 2 m, 1 m, and 0.5 m. While in supports variation, we have fixed support, knife-edge support, and slider support. The results show that there is addition of vibration caused by long vehicle. It is proved by an oscillation which is showed in every response of beam's total deformation. Highest total deformation is achieved in slider support beam of 0.5 thicknesses, 1.08 mm in 1.12 second. First ripple seen in responses is at 0.84 second. Meanwhile, response of knife-edge and fixed support beam show a similarity. The ripple in this situation is caused by beat modulation from the front and rear tire.

  7. Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

  8. Volume Dynamics Propulsion System Modeling for Supersonics Vehicle Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Ma, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program the Supersonics Project is working to overcome the obstacles to supersonic commercial flight. The proposed vehicles are long slim body aircraft with pronounced aero-servo-elastic modes. These modes can potentially couple with propulsion system dynamics; leading to performance challenges such as aircraft ride quality and stability. Other disturbances upstream of the engine generated from atmospheric wind gusts, angle of attack, and yaw can have similar effects. In addition, for optimal propulsion system performance, normal inlet-engine operations are required to be closer to compressor stall and inlet unstart. To study these phenomena an integrated model is needed that includes both airframe structural dynamics as well as the propulsion system dynamics. This paper covers the propulsion system component volume dynamics modeling of a turbojet engine that will be used for an integrated vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic model and for propulsion efficiency studies.

  9. New JLS-Factor Model versus the Standard JLS Model: A Case Study on Chinese Stock Bubbles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongyi Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we extend the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS model by introducing fundamental economic factors in China (including the interest rate and deposit reserve rate and the historical volatilities of targeted and US equity indices into the original model, which is a flexible tool to detect bubbles and predict regime changes in financial markets. We then derive a general method to incorporate these selected factors in addition to the log-periodic power law signature of herding and compare the prediction accuracy of the critical time between the original and the new JLS models (termed the JLS-factor model by applying these two models to fit two well-known Chinese stock indices in three bubble periods. The results show that the JLS-factor model with Chinese characteristics successfully depicts the evolutions of bubbles and “antibubbles” and constructs efficient end-of-bubble signals for all bubbles in Chinese stock markets. In addition, the results of standard statistical tests demonstrate the excellent explanatory power of these additive factors and confirm that the new JLS model provides useful improvements over the standard JLS model.

  10. Competition or cooperation in transboundary fish stocks management: Insight from a dynamical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Trong Hieu; Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre; Trinh, Viet Duoc; Brehmer, Patrice

    2018-06-14

    An idealized system of a shared fish stock associated with different exclusive economic zones (EEZ) is modelled. Parameters were estimated for the case of the small pelagic fisheries shared between Southern Morocco, Mauritania and the Senegambia. Two models of fishing effort distribution were explored. The first one considers independent national fisheries in each EEZ, with a cost per unit of fishing effort that depends on local fishery policy. The second one considers the case of a fully cooperative fishery performed by an international fleet freely moving across the borders. Both models are based on a set of six ordinary differential equations describing the time evolution of the fish biomass and the fishing effort. We take advantage of the two time scales to obtain a reduced model governing the total fish biomass of the system and fishing efforts in each zone. At the fast equilibrium, the fish distribution follows the ideal free distribution according to the carrying capacity in each area. Different equilibria can be reached according to management choices. When fishing fleets are independent and national fishery policies are not harmonized, in the general case, competition leads after a few decades to a scenario where only one fishery remains sustainable. In the case of sub-regional agreement acting on the adjustment of cost per unit of fishing effort in each EEZ, we found that a large number of equilibria exists. In this last case the initial distribution of fishing effort strongly impact the optimal equilibrium that can be reached. Lastly, the country with the highest carrying capacity density may get less landings when collaborating with other countries than if it minimises its fishing costs. The second fully cooperative model shows that a single international fishing fleet moving freely in the fishing areas leads to a sustainable equilibrium. Such findings should foster regional fisheries organizations to get potential new ways for neighbouring fish stock

  11. A survey of wheel-rail contact models for rail vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meymand, Sajjad Z.; Keylin, Alexander; Ahmadian, Mehdi

    2016-03-01

    Accurate and efficient contact models for wheel-rail interaction are essential for the study of the dynamic behaviour of a railway vehicle. Assessment of the contact forces and moments, as well as contact geometry provide a fundamental foundation for such tasks as design of braking and traction control systems, prediction of wheel and rail wear, and evaluation of ride safety and comfort. This paper discusses the evolution and the current state of the theories for solving the wheel-rail contact problem for rolling stock. The well-known theories for modelling both normal contact (Hertzian and non-Hertzian) and tangential contact (Kalker's linear theory, FASTSIM, CONTACT, Polach's theory, etc.) are reviewed. The paper discusses the simplifying assumptions for developing these models and compares their functionality. The experimental studies for evaluation of contact models are also reviewed. This paper concludes with discussing open areas in contact mechanics that require further research for developing better models to represent the wheel-rail interaction.

  12. Determining the Optimum Portfolio of Sharia Stocks Using an Approach of Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhri Husein

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Shariah Compliant Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM is a modification of the model Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. This research is quantitative descriptive study of theories of optimal portfolio analysis applied to trading stocks, especially in stocks Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling technique used was purposive sampling and obtained 26 shares. The analysis tool used is MatLab R2010a. The results of this study are not prove theMarkowitz portfolio theory. This is explained by the amount of Beta market (β_m a value beta below 1 indicates that the fluctuation of stocks returns do not follow the movement of market fluctuations. Investors are likely to want a high profit, the investors are advised to choose a second portfolio groups, with rate of 0.176722% and investors are likely to enjoy a substantial risk in the investment portfolio are advised to choose the first group with a great risk of 0.8501%.

  13. ANALOG MODEL OF DYNAMIC BALANCE OF THE JOINT-STOCK BANK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bulanov Yu. N.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Reliability and financial stability of a commercial bank are based on economic interests of its stakeholders - influence groups. The main influence groups of a bank - Shareholders, Board of management, Administration and Responsible executives, Staff members, Depositors, Loan debtors, Clients - have competing economic interests, which are necessary to be taken into account and are to be realized in a balanced way in the process of strategic management. Quantitative outcomes of Strategy 2015 implementation in terms of its system-based stability, which is determinated by sufficient capital’s data, day-to-day liquidity as well as risk realization level of active bank transactions, turned out to be insufficient but expectable. The approach to definition of economic nature of the category “Financial stability” relating to the joint-stock bank, which is demonstrated with the use of the analog model of its development affected by influence groups, is represented. Such basic vectors of strategic development of the joint-stock bank as “Aggressive growth”, “Dumping”, “Conservatism”, “Evolutionary growth” were examined and analyzed. Operating results of a banking sector, which statistically reflect the effect of depositors’ and loan debtors’ forces on the bank, show stronger dependence on individual and corporate depositors. Statement on suitability and possibility of quantitative evaluation of a bank’s financial stability (reliability in indicator set “Return on assets - Liquidity - Risks”.

  14. Stock management in hospital pharmacy using chance-constrained model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurado, I; Maestre, J M; Velarde, P; Ocampo-Martinez, C; Fernández, I; Tejera, B Isla; Prado, J R Del

    2016-05-01

    One of the most important problems in the pharmacy department of a hospital is stock management. The clinical need for drugs must be satisfied with limited work labor while minimizing the use of economic resources. The complexity of the problem resides in the random nature of the drug demand and the multiple constraints that must be taken into account in every decision. In this article, chance-constrained model predictive control is proposed to deal with this problem. The flexibility of model predictive control allows taking into account explicitly the different objectives and constraints involved in the problem while the use of chance constraints provides a trade-off between conservativeness and efficiency. The solution proposed is assessed to study its implementation in two Spanish hospitals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modeling of a Photovoltaic-Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Station with Vehicle-to-Grid Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azhar Ul-Haq

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper is aimed at modelling of a distinct smart charging station for electric vehicles (EVs that is suitable for DC quick EV charging while ensuring minimum stress on the power grid. Operation of the charging station is managed in such a way that it is either supplied by photovoltaic (PV power or the power grid, and the vehicle-to-grid (V2G is also implemented for improving the stability of the grid during peak load hours. The PV interfaced DC/DC converter and grid interfaced DC/AC bidirectional converter share a DC bus. A smooth transition of one operating mode to another demonstrates the effectiveness of the employed control strategy. Modelling and control of the different components are explained and are implemented in Simulink. Simulations illustrate the feasible behaviour of the charging station under all operating modes in terms of the four-way interaction among PV, EVs and the grid along with V2G operation. Additionally, a business model is discussed with comprehensive analysis of cost estimation for the deployment of charging facilities in a residential area. It has been recognized that EVs bring new opportunities in terms of providing regulation services and consumption flexibility by varying the recharging power at a certain time instant. The paper also discusses the potential financial incentives required to inspire EV owners for active participation in the demand response mechanism.

  16. Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: Importance of vehicle fleet and local features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Hong; Zhang Qiang; He Kebin; Yao Zhiliang; Wang Xintong; Zheng Bo; Streets, David G.; Wang Qidong; Ding Yan

    2011-01-01

    We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control. - Highlights: → We examine vehicle emissions in 22 Chinese cities of different types and locations. → Vehicle emission factors of the cities differ by 50-90% due to distinct local features. → Each vehicle type contributes differently to total emissions among the cities. → A substantial increase in vehicle emissions in most Chinese cities is foreseeable. → City-specific fleet and local features are important in research and policy making. - Vehicle emission characteristics of Chinese cities are remarkably different, and local features need to be taken into account in vehicle emission studies and control strategy.

  17. Two models of the capacitated vehicle routing problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Borčinova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP is to find a set of minimum total cost routes for a fleet of capacitated vehicles based at a single depot, to serve a set of customers. There exist various integer linear programming models of the CVRP. One of the main differences lies in the way to eliminate sub-tours, i.e. cycles that do not go through the depot. In this paper, we describe a well-known flow formulation of CVRP, where sub-tour elimination constraints have a cardinality exponentially growing with the number of customers. Then we present a mixed linear programming formulation with polynomial cardinality of sub-tour elimination constraints. Both of the models were implemented and compared on several benchmarks.

  18. Prediction of selected Indian stock using a partitioning–interpolation based ARIMA–GARCH model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Narendra Babu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Accurate long-term prediction of time series data (TSD is a very useful research challenge in diversified fields. As financial TSD are highly volatile, multi-step prediction of financial TSD is a major research problem in TSD mining. The two challenges encountered are, maintaining high prediction accuracy and preserving the data trend across the forecast horizon. The linear traditional models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH preserve data trend to some extent, at the cost of prediction accuracy. Non-linear models like ANN maintain prediction accuracy by sacrificing data trend. In this paper, a linear hybrid model, which maintains prediction accuracy while preserving data trend, is proposed. A quantitative reasoning analysis justifying the accuracy of proposed model is also presented. A moving-average (MA filter based pre-processing, partitioning and interpolation (PI technique are incorporated by the proposed model. Some existing models and the proposed model are applied on selected NSE India stock market data. Performance results show that for multi-step ahead prediction, the proposed model outperforms the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and preserving data trend.

  19. Hyper-X Vehicle Model - Top Front View

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    A top front view of an early desk-top model of NASA's X-43A 'Hyper-X,' or Hypersonic Experimental Vehicle, developed to flight test a dual-mode ramjet/scramjet propulsion system at speeds from Mach 7 up to Mach 10 (7 to 10 times the speed of sound, which varies with temperature and altitude). Hyper-X, the flight vehicle for which is designated as X-43A, is an experimental flight-research program seeking to demonstrate airframe-integrated, 'air-breathing' engine technologies that promise to increase payload capacity for future vehicles, including hypersonic aircraft (faster than Mach 5) and reusable space launchers. This multiyear program is currently underway at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California. The Hyper-X schedule calls for its first flight later this year (2000). Hyper-X is a joint program, with Dryden sharing responsibility with NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. Dryden's primary role is to fly three unpiloted X-43A research vehicles to validate engine technologies and hypersonic design tools as well as the hypersonic test facility at Langley. Langley manages the program and leads the technology development effort. The Hyper-X Program seeks to significantly expand the speed boundaries of air-breathing propulsion by being the first aircraft to demonstrate an airframe-integrated, scramjet-powered free flight. Scramjets (supersonic-combustion ramjets) are ramjet engines in which the airflow through the whole engine remains supersonic. Scramjet technology is challenging because only limited testing can be performed in ground facilities. Long duration, full-scale testing requires flight research. Scramjet engines are air-breathing, capturing their oxygen from the atmosphere. Current spacecraft, such as the Space Shuttle, are rocket powered, so they must carry both fuel and oxygen for propulsion. Scramjet technology-based vehicles need to carry only fuel. By eliminating the need to carry oxygen, future hypersonic vehicles will

  20. Hyper-X Vehicle Model - Top Rear View

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    This aft-quarter model view of NASA's X-43A 'Hyper-X' or Hypersonic Experimental Vehicle shows its sleek, geometric design. The X-43A was developed to flight test a dual-mode ramjet/scramjet propulsion system at speeds from Mach 7 up to Mach 10 (7 to 10 times the speed of sound, which varies with temperature and altitude). Hyper-X, the flight vehicle for which is designated as X-43A, is an experimental flight-research program seeking to demonstrate airframe-integrated, 'air-breathing' engine technologies that promise to increase payload capacity for future vehicles, including hypersonic aircraft (faster than Mach 5) and reusable space launchers. This multiyear program is currently underway at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, California. The Hyper-X schedule calls for its first flight later this year (2000). Hyper-X is a joint program, with Dryden sharing responsibility with NASA's Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. Dryden's primary role is to fly three unpiloted X-43A research vehicles to validate engine technologies and hypersonic design tools as well as the hypersonic test facility at Langley. Langley manages the program and leads the technology development effort. The Hyper-X Program seeks to significantly expand the speed boundaries of air-breathing propulsion by being the first aircraft to demonstrate an airframe-integrated, scramjet-powered free flight. Scramjets (supersonic-combustion ramjets) are ramjet engines in which the airflow through the whole engine remains supersonic. Scramjet technology is challenging because only limited testing can be performed in ground facilities. Long duration, full-scale testing requires flight research. Scramjet engines are air-breathing, capturing their oxygen from the atmosphere. Current spacecraft, such as the Space Shuttle, are rocket powered, so they must carry both fuel and oxygen for propulsion. Scramjet technology-based vehicles need to carry only fuel. By eliminating the need to carry oxygen

  1. Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-07-30

    number of stowed kills Same basic load lasts longer range Gun/ammo parameters impact system weight, under - armor volume requirements Round volume...internal volume is reduced, the model assumes that the crew’s ability to operate while under armor will be impaired. If the size of a vehicle crew is...changing swept volume will alter under armor volume requirements for the total system; if system volume is fixed, changing swept volume will

  2. Modeling and Simulation of an Unmanned Ground Vehicle Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-28

    Wilhelm, A. N., Surgenor, B. W., and Pharoah, J. G., “Design and evaluation of a micro-fuel-cell-based power system for a mobile robot,” Mechatronics ... Embedded Control Systems ], Control Engineering, 91–116, Birkhuser Boston (2005). [12] Alur, R., Courcoubetis, C., Halbwachs, N., Henzinger, T., Ho, P.-H...Modeling and Simulation of an Unmanned Ground Vehicle Power System John Brodericka∗, Jack Hartnerb, Dawn Tilburya, and Ella Atkinsa aThe University

  3. Underestimation of soil carbon stocks by Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY models in boreal forest linked to overlooking site fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-04-01

    The soil organic carbon stock (SOC) changes estimated by the most process based soil carbon models (e.g. Yasso07, Q and CENTURY), needed for reporting of changes in soil carbon amounts for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by soil carbon management, can be biased if in a large mosaic of environments the models are missing a key factor driving SOC sequestration. To our knowledge soil nutrient status as a missing driver of these models was not tested in previous studies. Although, it's known that models fail to reconstruct the spatial variation and that soil nutrient status drives the ecosystem carbon use efficiency and soil carbon sequestration. We evaluated SOC stock estimates of Yasso07, Q and CENTURY process based models against the field data from Swedish Forest Soil National Inventories (3230 samples) organized by recursive partitioning method (RPART) into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions. These models worked for most soils with approximately average SOC stocks, but could not reproduce higher measured SOC stocks in our application. The Yasso07 and Q models that used only climate and litterfall input data and ignored soil properties generally agreed with two third of measurements. However, in comparison with measurements grouped according to the gradient of soil nutrient status we found that the models underestimated for the Swedish boreal forest soils with higher site fertility. Accounting for soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content) and structure (bulk density) in CENTURY model showed no improvement on carbon stock estimates, as CENTURY deviated in similar manner. We highlighted the mechanisms why models deviate from the measurements and the ways of considering soil nutrient status in further model development. Our analysis suggested that the models indeed lack other predominat drivers of SOC stabilization

  4. From models to measurements: comparing downed dead wood carbon stock estimates in the U.S. forest inventory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant M Domke

    Full Text Available The inventory and monitoring of coarse woody debris (CWD carbon (C stocks is an essential component of any comprehensive National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGHGI. Due to the expense and difficulty associated with conducting field inventories of CWD pools, CWD C stocks are often modeled as a function of more commonly measured stand attributes such as live tree C density. In order to assess potential benefits of adopting a field-based inventory of CWD C stocks in lieu of the current model-based approach, a national inventory of downed dead wood C across the U.S. was compared to estimates calculated from models associated with the U.S.'s NGHGI and used in the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program. The model-based population estimate of C stocks for CWD (i.e., pieces and slash piles in the conterminous U.S. was 9 percent (145.1 Tg greater than the field-based estimate. The relatively small absolute difference was driven by contrasting results for each CWD component. The model-based population estimate of C stocks from CWD pieces was 17 percent (230.3 Tg greater than the field-based estimate, while the model-based estimate of C stocks from CWD slash piles was 27 percent (85.2 Tg smaller than the field-based estimate. In general, models overestimated the C density per-unit-area from slash piles early in stand development and underestimated the C density from CWD pieces in young stands. This resulted in significant differences in CWD C stocks by region and ownership. The disparity in estimates across spatial scales illustrates the complexity in estimating CWD C in a NGHGI. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that the U.S. adopt field-based estimates of CWD C stocks as a component of its NGHGI to both reduce the uncertainty within the inventory and improve the sensitivity to potential management and climate change events.

  5. From models to measurements: comparing downed dead wood carbon stock estimates in the U.S. forest inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domke, Grant M; Woodall, Christopher W; Walters, Brian F; Smith, James E

    2013-01-01

    The inventory and monitoring of coarse woody debris (CWD) carbon (C) stocks is an essential component of any comprehensive National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGHGI). Due to the expense and difficulty associated with conducting field inventories of CWD pools, CWD C stocks are often modeled as a function of more commonly measured stand attributes such as live tree C density. In order to assess potential benefits of adopting a field-based inventory of CWD C stocks in lieu of the current model-based approach, a national inventory of downed dead wood C across the U.S. was compared to estimates calculated from models associated with the U.S.'s NGHGI and used in the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program. The model-based population estimate of C stocks for CWD (i.e., pieces and slash piles) in the conterminous U.S. was 9 percent (145.1 Tg) greater than the field-based estimate. The relatively small absolute difference was driven by contrasting results for each CWD component. The model-based population estimate of C stocks from CWD pieces was 17 percent (230.3 Tg) greater than the field-based estimate, while the model-based estimate of C stocks from CWD slash piles was 27 percent (85.2 Tg) smaller than the field-based estimate. In general, models overestimated the C density per-unit-area from slash piles early in stand development and underestimated the C density from CWD pieces in young stands. This resulted in significant differences in CWD C stocks by region and ownership. The disparity in estimates across spatial scales illustrates the complexity in estimating CWD C in a NGHGI. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that the U.S. adopt field-based estimates of CWD C stocks as a component of its NGHGI to both reduce the uncertainty within the inventory and improve the sensitivity to potential management and climate change events.

  6. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  7. Compression stockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Call your health insurance or prescription plan: Find out if they pay for compression stockings. Ask if your durable medical equipment benefit pays for compression stockings. Get a prescription from your doctor. Find a medical equipment store where they can ...

  8. Stock Status

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data inform the public of the most recent stock status for all stocks (FSSI and non-FSSI) in the fishery management unit contained in a fishery managment plan....

  9. Modeling connected and autonomous vehicles in heterogeneous traffic flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Lanhang; Yamamoto, Toshiyuki

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a heterogeneous traffic-flow model to study the possible impact of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) on the traffic flow. Based on a recently proposed two-state safe-speed model (TSM), a two-lane cellular automaton (CA) model was developed, wherein both the CAVs and conventional vehicles were incorporated in the heterogeneous traffic flow. In particular, operation rules for CAVs are established considering the new characteristics of this emerging technology, including autonomous driving through the adaptive cruise control and inter-vehicle connection via short-range communication. Simulations were conducted under various CAV-penetration rates in the heterogeneous flow. The impact of CAVs on the road capacity was numerically investigated. The simulation results indicate that the road capacity increases with an increase in the CAV-penetration rate within the heterogeneous flow. Up to a CAV-penetration rate of 30%, the road capacity increases gradually; the effect of the difference in the CAV capability on the growth rate is insignificant. When the CAV-penetration rate exceeds 30%, the growth rate is largely decided by the capability of the CAV. The greater the capability, the higher the road-capacity growth rate. The relationship between the CAV-penetration rate and the road capacity is numerically analyzed, providing some insights into the possible impact of the CAVs on traffic systems.

  10. Modelling stock order flows with non-homogeneous intensities from high-frequency data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorshenin, Andrey K.; Korolev, Victor Yu.; Zeifman, Alexander I.; Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Chertok, Andrey V.; Evstafyev, Artem I.; Korchagin, Alexander Yu.

    2013-10-01

    A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of such information system as the limit order book in financial markets. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of buy and sell orders that determine the price discovery mechanism. The proposed multiplicative model of stochastic intensities makes it possible to analyze the characteristics of the order flows as well as the instantaneous proportion of the forces of buyers and sellers, that is, the imbalance process, without modelling the external information background. The proposed model gives the opportunity to link the micro-scale (high-frequency) dynamics of the limit order book with the macro-scale models of stock price processes of the form of subordinated Wiener processes by means of limit theorems of probability theory and hence, to use the normal variance-mean mixture models of the corresponding heavy-tailed distributions. The approach can be useful in different areas with similar properties (e.g., in plasma physics).

  11. Letter to the Editor: Electric Vehicle Demand Model for Load Flow Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; Vlachogiannis, Ioannis (John)

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces specific and simple model for electric vehicles suitable for load flow studies. The electric vehicles demand system is modelled as PQ bus with stochastic characteristics based on the concept of queuing theory. All appropriate variables of stochastic PQ buses are given...... with closed formulae as a function of charging time. Specific manufacturer model of electric vehicles is used as study case....

  12. On distributed model predictive control for vehicle platooning with a recursive feasibility guarantee

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Shengling; Lazar, Mircea

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a distributed model predictive control algorithm for vehicle platooning and more generally networked systems in a chain structure. The distributed models of the vehicle platoon are coupled through the input of the preceding vehicles. Using the principles of robust model

  13. Mathematical Modelling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles with Four Rotors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Benić

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical model of an unmanned aerial vehicle with four propulsors (quadcopter is indispensable in quadcopter movement simulation and later modelling of the control algorithm. Mathematical model is, at the same time, the first step in comprehending the mathematical principles and physical laws which are applied to the quadcopter system. The objective is to define the mathematical model which will describe the quadcopter behavior with satisfactory accuracy and which can be, with certain modifications, applicable for the similar configurations of multirotor aerial vehicles. At the beginning of mathematical model derivation, coordinate systems are defined and explained. By using those coordinate systems, relations between parameters defined in the earth coordinate system and in the body coordinate system are defined. Further, the quadcopter kinematic is described which enables setting those relations. Also, quadcopter dynamics is used to introduce forces and torques to the model through usage of Newton-Euler method. Final derived equation is Newton’s second law in the matrix notation. For the sake of model simplification, hybrid coordinate system is defined, and quadcopter dynamic equations derived with the respect to it. Those equations are implemented in the simulation. Results of behavior of quadcopter mathematical model are graphically shown for four cases. For each of the cases the propellers revolutions per minute (RPM are set in a way that results in the occurrence of the controllable variables which causes one of four basic quadcopter movements in space.

  14. Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: importance of vehicle fleet and local features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Hong; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin; Yao, Zhiliang; Wang, Xintong; Zheng, Bo; Streets, David G; Wang, Qidong; Ding, Yan

    2011-10-01

    We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Improved modelling of thermal energy savings potential in the existing residential stock using a newly available data source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dineen, D.; Rogan, F.; Ó Gallachóir, B.P.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a novel bottom up approach to modelling the energy savings potential of energy efficiency improvement measures to be applied through retrofit of the existing dwelling stock. It takes advantage of a newly available, rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the 2011 housing stock in Ireland. The methodological innovation centres on the use of wall construction type in the modelling and analysis. While Ireland is the focus, this approach is applicable to any EU member state for which data on dwelling characteristics exists from surveys carried as part of Energy Performance Certificate calculations. The model is calibrated to the national energy balance for 2011 by varying the internal temperature assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the effects of internal temperature and rebound. The paper also highlights some limitations posed by data availability on the accuracy and sophistication of models that can currently be developed, specifically in the Irish case. - Highlights: • Archetype model of energy savings potential from retrofit of existing dwelling stock. • Takes advantage of rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the Irish housing stock. • Innovative use of wall construction types in archetype definition possible due to improved data. • Results calibrated to top down estimate of heating demand by adjusting internal temperature. • Highlights limitations on the accuracy and sophistication of models posed by data availability.

  16. Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrovic, Stefan; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2014-01-01

    Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy...... conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark....... A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing...

  17. Methodology for assessing electric vehicle charging infrastructure business models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madina, Carlos; Zamora, Inmaculada; Zabala, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of economic implications of innovative business models in networked environments, as electro-mobility is, requires a global approach to ensure that all the involved actors obtain a benefit. Although electric vehicles (EVs) provide benefits for the society as a whole, there are a number of hurdles for their widespread adoption, mainly the high investment cost for the EV and for the infrastructure. Therefore, a sound business model must be built up for charging service operators, which allows them to recover their costs while, at the same time, offer EV users a charging price which makes electro-mobility comparable to internal combustion engine vehicles. For that purpose, three scenarios are defined, which present different EV charging alternatives, in terms of charging power and charging station ownership and accessibility. A case study is presented for each scenario and the required charging station usage to have a profitable business model is calculated. We demonstrate that private home charging is likely to be the preferred option for EV users who can charge at home, as it offers a lower total cost of ownership under certain conditions, even today. On the contrary, finding a profitable business case for fast charging requires more intensive infrastructure usage. - Highlights: • Ecosystem is a network of actors who collaborate to create a positive business case. • Electro-mobility (electricity-powered road vehicles and ICT) is a complex ecosystem. • Methodological analysis to ensure that all actors benefit from electro-mobility. • Economic analysis of charging infrastructure deployment linked to its usage. • Comparison of EV ownership cost vs. ICE for vehicle users.

  18. SIMULATING AN EVOLUTIONARY MULTI-AGENT BASED MODEL OF THE STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana MARICA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on artificial stock market simulations using a multi-agent model incorporating 2,000 heterogeneous agents interacting on the artificial market. The agents interaction is due to trading activity on the market through a call auction trading mechanism. The multi-agent model uses evolutionary techniques such as genetic programming in order to generate an adaptive and evolving population of agents. Each artificial agent is endowed with wealth and a genetic programming induced trading strategy. The trading strategy evolves and adapts to the new market conditions through a process called breeding, which implies that at each simulation step, new agents with better trading strategies are generated by the model, from recombining the best performing trading strategies and replacing the agents which have the worst performing trading strategies. The simulation model was build with the help of the simulation software Altreva Adaptive Modeler which offers a suitable platform for financial market simulations of evolutionary agent based models, the S&P500 composite index being used as a benchmark for the simulation results.

  19. High performance modeling of atmospheric re-entry vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Alexandre; Scalabrin, Leonardo C; Boyd, Iain D

    2012-01-01

    Re-entry vehicles designed for space exploration are usually equipped with thermal protection systems made of ablative material. In order to properly model and predict the aerothermal environment of the vehicle, it is imperative to account for the gases produced by ablation processes. In the case of charring ablators, where an inner resin is pyrolyzed at a relatively low temperature, the composition of the gas expelled into the boundary layer is complex and may lead to thermal chemical reactions that cannot be captured with simple flow chemistry models. In order to obtain better predictions, an appropriate gas flow chemistry model needs to be included in the CFD calculations. Using a recently developed chemistry model for ablating carbon-phenolic-in-air species, a CFD calculation of the Stardust re-entry at 71 km is presented. The code used for that purpose has been designed to take advantage of the nature of the problem and therefore remains very efficient when a high number of chemical species are involved. The CFD result demonstrates the need for such chemistry model when modeling the flow field around an ablative material. Modeling of the nonequilibrium radiation spectra is also presented, and compared to the experimental data obtained during Stardust re-entry by the Echelle instrument. The predicted emission from the CN lines compares quite well with the experimental results, demonstrating the validity of the current approach.

  20. Operations and support cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    1994-01-01

    The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this annual report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center which documents the development of an operations and support (O&S) cost model as part of a larger life cycle cost (LCC) structure. It is intended for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of an operations and support life cycle cost model. Cost categories were initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. A revised cost element structure (CES), which is currently under study by NASA, was used to established the basic cost elements used in the model. While the focus of the effort was on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs, the computerized model allowed for other cost categories such as RDT&E and production costs to be addressed. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the costing model included support and upgrades to the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model. The primary result of the current research has been a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely operations and support cost analysis during the conceptual design activities.

  1. Optimising a Model of Minimum Stock Level Control and a Model of Standing Order Cycle in Selected Foundry Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymszal J.

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available It has been found that the area where one can look for significant reserves in the procurement logistics is a rational management of the stock of raw materials. Currently, the main purpose of projects which increase the efficiency of inventory management is to rationalise all the activities in this area, taking into account and minimising at the same time the total inventory costs. The paper presents a method for optimising the inventory level of raw materials under a foundry plant conditions using two different control models. The first model is based on the estimate of an optimal level of the minimum emergency stock of raw materials, giving information about the need for an order to be placed immediately and about the optimal size of consignments ordered after the minimum emergency level has occurred. The second model is based on the estimate of a maximum inventory level of raw materials and an optimal order cycle. Optimisation of the presented models has been based on the previously done selection and use of rational methods for forecasting the time series of the delivery of a chosen auxiliary material (ceramic filters to a casting plant, including forecasting a mean size of the delivered batch of products and its standard deviation.

  2. Modeling thermal effects in braking systems of railway vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milošević Miloš S.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of thermal effects has become increasingly important in product design in different transport means, road vehicles, airplanes, railway vehicles, and so forth. The thermal analysis is a very important stage in the study of braking systems, especially of railway vehicles, where it is necessary to brake huge masses, because the thermal load of a braked railway wheel prevails compared to other types of loads. In the braking phase, kinetic energy transforms into thermal energy resulting in intense heating and high temperature states of railway wheels. Thus induced thermal loads determine thermomechanical behavior of the structure of railway wheels. In cases of thermal overloads, which mainly occur as a result of long-term braking on down-grade railroads, the generation of stresses and deformations occurs, whose consequences are the appearance of cracks on the rim of a wheel and the final total wheel defect. The importance to precisely determine the temperature distribution caused by the transfer process of the heat generated during braking due to the friction on contact surfaces of the braking system makes it a challenging research task. Therefore, the thermal analysis of a block-braked solid railway wheel of a 444 class locomotive of the national railway operator Serbian Railways is processed in detail in this paper, using analytical and numerical modeling of thermal effects during long-term braking for maintaining a constant speed on a down-grade railroad.

  3. REAL STOCK PRICES AND THE LONG-RUN MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN MALAYSIA: Evidence from Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naziruddin Abdullah

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This study adopts the error correction model to empirically investigate the role of real stock prices in the long run-money demand in the Malaysian financial or money market for the period 1977: Q1-1997: Q2. Specifically, an attempt is made to check whether the real narrow money (M1/P is cointegrated with the selected variables like industrial production index (IPI, one-year T-Bill rates (TB12, and real stock prices (RSP. If a cointegration between the variables, i.e., the dependent and independent variables, is found to be the case, it may imply that there exists a long-run co-movement among these variables in the Malaysian money market. From the empirical results it is found that the cointegration between money demand and real stock prices (RSP is positive, implying that in the long run there is a positive association between real stock prices (RSP and demand for real narrow money (M1/P. The policy implication that can be extracted from this study is that an increase in stock prices is likely to necessitate an expansionary monetary policy to prevent nominal income or inflation target from undershooting.

  4. Optimal Vehicle Design Using the Integrated System and Cost Modeling Tool Suite

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-01

    Space Vehicle Costing ( ACEIT ) • New Small Sat Model Development & Production Cost O&M Cost Module  Radiation Exposure  Radiation Detector Response...Reliability OML Availability Risk l l Tools CEA, SRM Model, POST, ACEIT , Inflation Model, Rotor Blade Des, Microsoft Project, ATSV, S/1-iABP...space STK, SOAP – Specific mission • Space Vehicle Design (SMAD) • Space Vehicle Propulsion • Orbit Propagation • Space Vehicle Costing ( ACEIT ) • New

  5. Vehicle Propulsion Systems Introduction to Modeling and Optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Guzzella, Lino

    2013-01-01

    This text provides an introduction to the mathematical modeling and subsequent optimization of vehicle propulsion systems and their supervisory control algorithms. Automobiles are responsible for a substantial part of the world's consumption of primary energy, mostly fossil liquid hydrocarbons and the reduction of the fuel consumption of these vehicles has become a top priority. Increasing concerns over fossil fuel consumption and the associated environmental impacts have motivated many groups in industry and academia to propose new propulsion systems and to explore new optimization methodologies. This third edition has been prepared to include many of these developments. In the third edition, exercises are included at the end of each chapter and the solutions are available on the web.

  6. Volume of the steady-state space of financial flows in a monetary stock-flow-consistent model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazan, Aurélien

    2017-05-01

    We show that a steady-state stock-flow consistent macro-economic model can be represented as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). The set of solutions is a polytope, which volume depends on the constraints applied and reveals the potential fragility of the economic circuit, with no need to study the dynamics. Several methods to compute the volume are compared, inspired by operations research methods and the analysis of metabolic networks, both exact and approximate. We also introduce a random transaction matrix, and study the particular case of linear flows with respect to money stocks.

  7. A generalized business cycle model with delays in gross product and capital stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattaf, Khalid; Riad, Driss; Yousfi, Noura

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A generalized business cycle model is proposed and rigorously analyzed. • Well-posedness of the model and local stability of the economic equilibrium are investigated. • Direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined. • A special case and some numerical simulations are presented. - Abstract: In this work, we propose a delayed business cycle model with general investment function. The time delays are introduced into gross product and capital stock, respectively. We first prove that the model is mathematically and economically well posed. In addition, the stability of the economic equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are investigated. Our main results show that both time delays can cause the macro-economic system to fluctuate and the economic equilibrium to lose or gain its stability. Moreover, the direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are determined by means of the normal form method and center manifold theory. Furthermore, the models and results presented in many previous studies are improved and generalized.

  8. Setting safety stocks in multi-stage inventory systems under rolling horizon mathematical programming models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boulaksil, Y.; Fransoo, J.C.; van Halm, E.N.G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of determining safety stocks in multi-item multi-stage inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are necessary to make the supply chain, which is driven by forecasts of customer orders, responsive to (demand) uncertainties and to achieve

  9. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    arrival process. On applying our sequential test procedure to the thirty individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the data suggest that it is important to allow for both time-varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects in order to satisfactorily describe the daily stock...

  10. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-levelbreak data to evaluate Earth system models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chadburn, S. E.; Krinner, G.; Porada, P.

    2017-01-01

    from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which...

  11. Observations and modeling of aboveground tree carbon stocks and fluxes following a bark beetle outbreak in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric M. Pfeifer; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Arjan J.H. Meddens

    2011-01-01

    Bark beetle epidemics result in tree mortality across millions of hectares in North America. However, few studies have quantified impacts on carbon (C) cycling. In this study, we quantified the immediate response and subsequent trajectories of stand-level aboveground tree C stocks and fluxes using field measurements and modeling for a location in central Idaho, USA...

  12. Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

  13. Measuring and modeling carbon stock change estimates for US forests and uncertainties from apparent inter-annual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2015-01-01

    Our approach is based on a collection of models that convert or augment the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis program survey data to estimate all forest carbon component stocks, including live and standing dead tree aboveground and belowground biomass, forest floor (litter), down deadwood, and soil organic carbon, for each inventory plot. The data, which include...

  14. Long Memory in Stock Market Volatility and the Volatility-in-Mean Effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Zhu, Jie

    We extend the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH (FIEGARCH) model for daily stock return data with long memory in return volatility of Bollerslev and Mikkelsen (1996) by introducing a possible volatility-in-mean effect. To avoid that the long memory property of volatility carries over to r...

  15. Updraft Model for Development of Autonomous Soaring Uninhabited Air Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Michael J.

    2006-01-01

    Large birds and glider pilots commonly use updrafts caused by convection in the lower atmosphere to extend flight duration, increase cross-country speed, improve range, or simply to conserve energy. Uninhabited air vehicles may also have the ability to exploit updrafts to improve performance. An updraft model was developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California) to investigate the use of convective lift for uninhabited air vehicles in desert regions. Balloon and surface measurements obtained at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Surface Radiation station (Desert Rock, Nevada) enabled the model development. The data were used to create a statistical representation of the convective velocity scale, w*, and the convective mixing-layer thickness, zi. These parameters were then used to determine updraft size, vertical velocity profile, spacing, and maximum height. This paper gives a complete description of the updraft model and its derivation. Computer code for running the model is also given in conjunction with a check case for model verification.

  16. Distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jiawen; Chen, Langnan; Liu, Hao

    2013-12-01

    We examine the distribution characteristics of stock market liquidity by employing the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model and three-minute frequency data from Chinese stock markets. We find that the BCPE distribution within the GAMLSS framework fits the distributions of stock market liquidity well with the diagnosis test. We also find that the stock market index exhibits a significant impact on the distributions of stock market liquidity. The stock market liquidity usually exhibits a positive skewness, but a normal distribution at a low level of stock market index and a high-peak and fat-tail shape at a high level of stock market index.

  17. Dividend Per Share, Retained Earnings, Book Value And Total Debt On Stock Price: Approximation Valuation Model Dividend Per Share, Retained Earnings, Book Value, dan Total Debt terhadap Harga Saham: Pendekatan Valuation Model.

    OpenAIRE

    khikmah, Khoirul

    2011-01-01

    This study examines to dividend per share, retained earnings, book valueand total debt on stock price: approximation valuation model. Data in this studyare manufacture firms listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2005 – 2008. Linearregression analysis used to analysis this data. Result of regression analysis findsthat dividend per share, retained earnings, book value and total debt on stock pricehave significant effect to stock price. Dividend per share and book value havesignificant effect in...

  18. A spatiotemporal model for snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) stock size in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cadigan, Noel G.; Wade, Elmer; Nielsen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    within-season depletion based on catch per unit of effort (CPUE; kg·pot–1) and also biomass values from a survey designed specifically for this stock. The model is formulated in a state-space framework. The main contribution of the model is to provide a better understanding of fishery-dependent factors...... of 0.4 provides a better fit to survey results. Model results suggest that there is no evidence of effort saturation in the fishery...

  19. NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS FOR AIR POLLUTION BY MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Scientific work involves: 1 development of 3D numerical models that allow calculating the process of air pollution by motor vehicles emissions; 2 creation of models which would allow predicting the air pollution level in urban areas. Methodology. To solve the problem upon assessing the level of air pollution by motor vehicles emissions fundamental equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer are used. For the solution of differential equations of aerodynamics and mass transfer finite-difference methods are used. For the numerical integration of the equation for the velocity potential the method of conditional approximations is applied. The equation for the velocity potential written in differential form, splits into two equations, where at each step of splitting an unknown value of the velocity potential is determined by an explicit scheme of running computation, while the difference scheme is implicit one. For the numerical integration of the emissions dispersion equation in the atmosphere applies the implicit alternating-triangular difference scheme of splitting. Emissions from the road are modeled by a series of point sources of given intensity. Developed numerical models form is the basis of the created software package. Findings. 3D numerical models were developed; they belong to the class of «diagnostic models». These models take into account main physical factors that influence the process of dispersion of harmful substances in the atmosphere when emissions from vehicles in the city occur. Based on the constructed numerical models the computational experiment was conducted to assess the level of air pollution in the street. Originality. Authors have developed numerical models that allow to calculate the 3D aerodynamics of the wind flow in urban areas and the process of mass transfer emissions from the highway. Calculations to determine the area of contamination, which is formed near the buildings, located along the highway were

  20. A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAO Baochao; LIU Qun; ZHANG Kui; Abdul BASET; Aamir Mahmood MEMON; Khadim Hussain MEMON; HAN Yanan

    2016-01-01

    A continuous time delay-difference model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes.The southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world.The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock.However,the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism.In this study,we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) species,which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery.It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) fishery.CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of(21510 t,23118 t).The catch in 2011 (24100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio (F2011/FMSY) is higher than 1.0.The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock.The CTDDM treats the recruitment,the growth,and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.

  1. Intelligent model-based diagnostics for vehicle health management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jianhui; Tu, Fang; Azam, Mohammad S.; Pattipati, Krishna R.; Willett, Peter K.; Qiao, Liu; Kawamoto, Masayuki

    2003-08-01

    The recent advances in sensor technology, remote communication and computational capabilities, and standardized hardware/software interfaces are creating a dramatic shift in the way the health of vehicles is monitored and managed. These advances facilitate remote monitoring, diagnosis and condition-based maintenance of automotive systems. With the increased sophistication of electronic control systems in vehicles, there is a concomitant increased difficulty in the identification of the malfunction phenomena. Consequently, the current rule-based diagnostic systems are difficult to develop, validate and maintain. New intelligent model-based diagnostic methodologies that exploit the advances in sensor, telecommunications, computing and software technologies are needed. In this paper, we will investigate hybrid model-based techniques that seamlessly employ quantitative (analytical) models and graph-based dependency models for intelligent diagnosis. Automotive engineers have found quantitative simulation (e.g. MATLAB/SIMULINK) to be a vital tool in the development of advanced control systems. The hybrid method exploits this capability to improve the diagnostic system's accuracy and consistency, utilizes existing validated knowledge on rule-based methods, enables remote diagnosis, and responds to the challenges of increased system complexity. The solution is generic and has the potential for application in a wide range of systems.

  2. Hybrid neural network bushing model for vehicle dynamics simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sohn, Jeong Hyun; Lee, Seung Kyu; Yoo, Wan Suk

    2008-01-01

    Although the linear model was widely used for the bushing model in vehicle suspension systems, it could not express the nonlinear characteristics of bushing in terms of the amplitude and the frequency. An artificial neural network model was suggested to consider the hysteretic responses of bushings. This model, however, often diverges due to the uncertainties of the neural network under the unexpected excitation inputs. In this paper, a hybrid neural network bushing model combining linear and neural network is suggested. A linear model was employed to represent linear stiffness and damping effects, and the artificial neural network algorithm was adopted to take into account the hysteretic responses. A rubber test was performed to capture bushing characteristics, where sine excitation with different frequencies and amplitudes is applied. Random test results were used to update the weighting factors of the neural network model. It is proven that the proposed model has more robust characteristics than a simple neural network model under step excitation input. A full car simulation was carried out to verify the proposed bushing models. It was shown that the hybrid model results are almost identical to the linear model under several maneuvers

  3. Spatial modeling of litter and soil carbon stocks with associated uncertainty on forest land in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, B.; Domke, G. M.; Russell, M.; McRoberts, R. E.; Walters, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Forest ecosystems contribute substantially to carbon (C) storage. The dynamics of litter decomposition, translocation and stabilization into soil layers are essential processes in the functioning of forest ecosystems, as they control the cycling of soil organic matter and the accumulation and release of C to the atmosphere. Therefore, the spatial distributions of litter and soil C stocks are important in greenhouse gas estimation and reporting and inform land management decisions, policy, and climate change mitigation strategies. In this study, we explored the effects of spatial aggregation of climatic, biotic, topographic and soil input data on national estimates of litter and soil C stocks and characterized the spatial distribution of litter and soil C stocks in the conterminous United States. Data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program within the US Forest Service were used with vegetation phenology data estimated from LANDSAT imagery (30 m) and raster data describing relevant environmental parameters (e.g. temperature, precipitation, topographic properties) for the entire conterminous US. Litter and soil C stocks were estimated and mapped through geostatistical analysis and statistical uncertainty bounds on the pixel level predictions were constructed using a Monte Carlo-bootstrap technique, by which credible variance estimates for the C stocks were calculated. The sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation depends on geographic region. Further, using long-term (30-year) climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in litter and soil C stock estimates. In addition, results suggest that local topographic aspect is an important variable in litter and soil C estimation at the continental scale.

  4. Development of Vehicle Model Test for Road Loading Analysis of Sedan Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Nor, M. K.; Noordin, A.; Ruzali, M. F. S.; Hussen, M. H.

    2016-11-01

    Simple Structural Surfaces (SSS) method is offered as a means of organizing the process for rationalizing the basic vehicle body structure load paths. The application of this simplified approach is highly beneficial in the design development of modern passenger car structure especially during the conceptual stage. In Malaysia, however, there is no real physical model of SSS available to gain considerable insight and understanding into the function of each major subassembly in the whole vehicle structures. Based on this motivation, a physical model of SSS for sedan model with the corresponding model vehicle tests of bending and torsion is proposed in this work. The proposed approach is relatively easy to understand as compared to Finite Element Method (FEM). The results show that the proposed vehicle model test is capable to show that satisfactory load paths can give a sufficient structural stiffness within the vehicle structure. It is clearly observed that the global bending stiffness reduce significantly when more panels are removed from a complete SSS model. It is identified that parcel shelf is an important subassembly to sustain bending load. The results also match with the theoretical hypothesis, as the stiffness of the structure in an open section condition is shown weak when subjected to torsion load compared to bending load. The proposed approach can potentially be integrated with FEM to speed up the design process of automotive vehicle.

  5. Application of GIS to modified models of vehicle emission dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Taosheng; Fu, Lixin

    This paper reports on a preliminary study of the forecast and evaluation of transport-related air pollution dispersion in urban areas. Some modifications of the traditional Gauss dispersion models are provided, and especially a crossroad model is built, which considers the great variation of vehicle emission attributed to different driving patterns at the crossroad. The above models are combined with a self-developed geographic information system (GIS) platform, and a simulative system with graphical interfaces is built. The system aims at visually describing the influences on the urban environment by urban traffic characteristics and therefore gives a reference to the improvement of urban air quality. Due to the introduction of a self-developed GIS platform and a creative crossroad model, the system is more effective, flexible and accurate. Finally, a comparison of the simulated (predicted) and observed hourly concentration is given, which indicates a good simulation.

  6. MAS architecture and knowledge model for vehicles data communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René MANDIAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;} Completely autonomous vehicles in traffic should allow to decrease the number of road accident victims greatly, and should allow gains in terms of performance and economy. Modelling the vehicles interaction, and especially knowledge sharing, is one of the main challenges to optimize traffic flow with autonomous vehicles. We propose in this paper a model of knowledge communication between mobile agents on a traffic network. The model of knowledge and of interaction enables to propagate new knowledge without overloading the system with a too large number of communications. For that, only the new knowledge is communicated, and two agents communicate the same knowledge only once. Moreover, in order to allow agents to update their knowledge (perceived or created, a notion of degradation is used. A simulator has been built to evaluate the proposal, before to implement it in mobile robots. Some results of the simulator are proposed in this article.

  7. MAS architecture and knowledge model for vehicles data communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel ADAM

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 21 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;} Completely autonomous vehicles in traffic should allow to decrease the number of road accident victims greatly, and should allow gains in terms of performance and economy. Modelling the vehicles interaction, and especially knowledge sharing, is one of the main challenges to optimize traffic flow with autonomous vehicles. We propose in this paper a model of knowledge communication between mobile agents on a traffic network. The model of knowledge and of interaction enables to propagate new knowledge without overloading the system with a too large number of communications. For that, only the new knowledge is communicated, and two agents communicate the same knowledge only once. Moreover, in order to allow agents to update their knowledge (perceived or created, a notion of degradation is used. A simulator has been built to evaluate the proposal, before to implement it in mobile robots. Some results of the simulator are proposed in this article.

  8. A housing stock model of non-heating end-use energy in England verified by aggregate energy use data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorimer, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a housing stock model of non-heating end-use energy for England that can be verified using aggregate energy use data available for small areas. These end-uses, commonly referred to as appliances and lighting, are a rapidly increasing part of residential energy demand. This paper proposes a model that can be verified using aggregated data of electricity meters in small areas and census data on housing. Secondly, any differences that open up between major collections of housing could potentially be resolved by using data from frequently updated expenditure surveys. For the year 2008, the model overestimated domestic non-heating energy use at the national scale by 1.5%. This model was then used on the residential sector with various area classifications, which found that rural and suburban areas were generally underestimated by up to 3.3% and urban areas overestimated by up to 5.2% with the notable exception of “professional city life” classifications. The model proposed in this paper has the potential to be a verifiable and adaptable model for non-heating end-use energy in households in England for the future. - Highlights: ► Housing stock energy model was developed for end-uses outside of heating for UK context. ► This entailed changes to the building energy model that serves as the bottom of the stock model. ► The model is adaptable to reflect rapid changes in consumption between major housing surveys. ► Verification was done against aggregated consumption data and for the first time uses a measured size of the housing stock. ► The verification process revealed spatial variations in consumption patterns for future research.

  9. Vehicle coordinated transportation dispatching model base on multiple crisis locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Ran; Li, Shanwei; Yang, Guoying

    2018-05-01

    Many disastrous events are often caused after unconventional emergencies occur, and the requirements of disasters are often different. It is difficult for a single emergency resource center to satisfy such requirements at the same time. Therefore, how to coordinate the emergency resources stored by multiple emergency resource centers to various disaster sites requires the coordinated transportation of emergency vehicles. In this paper, according to the problem of emergency logistics coordination scheduling, based on the related constraints of emergency logistics transportation, an emergency resource scheduling model based on multiple disasters is established.

  10. Modelling the mixing of herring stocks between the Baltic and the North Sea from otolith data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ulrich, Clara; Post, Søren Lorentzen; Worsøe Clausen, Lotte

    2012-01-01

    and Swedish commercial landings and surveys samples for the purpose of stock assessment. But the split estimates from sampling data are highly variable and noisy. Better understanding of the migration and exploitation patterns involved could therefore potentially improve the stock assessment as well...... and are consistent with existing ideas about the migration patterns of WBSS and NSAS within Division IIIa and adjacent waters. This work therefore provides the foundation for the development of a more rational management of the herring stocks in this area...

  11. Workload Model Based Dynamic Adaptation of Social Internet of Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazi Masudul Alam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Social Internet of Things (SIoT has gained much interest among different research groups in recent times. As a key member of a smart city, the vehicular domain of SIoT (SIoV is also undergoing steep development. In the SIoV, vehicles work as sensor-hub to capture surrounding information using the in-vehicle and Smartphone sensors and later publish them for the consumers. A cloud centric cyber-physical system better describes the SIoV model where physical sensing-actuation process affects the cloud based service sharing or computation in a feedback loop or vice versa. The cyber based social relationship abstraction enables distributed, easily navigable and scalable peer-to-peer communication among the SIoV subsystems. These cyber-physical interactions involve a huge amount of data and it is difficult to form a real instance of the system to test the feasibility of SIoV applications. In this paper, we propose an analytical model to measure the workloads of various subsystems involved in the SIoV process. We present the basic model which is further extended to incorporate complex scenarios. We provide extensive simulation results for different parameter settings of the SIoV system. The findings of the analyses are further used to design example adaptation strategies for the SIoV subsystems which would foster deployment of intelligent transport systems.

  12. Workload Model Based Dynamic Adaptation of Social Internet of Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Kazi Masudul; Saini, Mukesh; El Saddik, Abdulmotaleb

    2015-01-01

    Social Internet of Things (SIoT) has gained much interest among different research groups in recent times. As a key member of a smart city, the vehicular domain of SIoT (SIoV) is also undergoing steep development. In the SIoV, vehicles work as sensor-hub to capture surrounding information using the in-vehicle and Smartphone sensors and later publish them for the consumers. A cloud centric cyber-physical system better describes the SIoV model where physical sensing-actuation process affects the cloud based service sharing or computation in a feedback loop or vice versa. The cyber based social relationship abstraction enables distributed, easily navigable and scalable peer-to-peer communication among the SIoV subsystems. These cyber-physical interactions involve a huge amount of data and it is difficult to form a real instance of the system to test the feasibility of SIoV applications. In this paper, we propose an analytical model to measure the workloads of various subsystems involved in the SIoV process. We present the basic model which is further extended to incorporate complex scenarios. We provide extensive simulation results for different parameter settings of the SIoV system. The findings of the analyses are further used to design example adaptation strategies for the SIoV subsystems which would foster deployment of intelligent transport systems. PMID:26389905

  13. Modeling speed and width parameters of vehicle tires for prediction of the reduction in vehicle noise pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Esmael Forouhid

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Safe driving requires the ability of the driver to receive the messages and complying with them. The most significant consequences of noise pollution are on the human auditory system. Disorders in the auditory system can have harmful side effects for human health. By reducing this kind of pollution in large cities, the quality of life, which is one of the biggest goals of the governments, can be considerably increased. Hence, in the present research, some parameters of vehicle tires were examined as a source of noise pollution, and the results can be taken into consideration in noise pollution reduction. Material and Method: Several vehicles with different tire width were selected for measuring sound level. The sound levels were measured for moving vehicles with the use of the Statistical Pass By Method (SPB, ISO 11819-1. Following sound level measurements for moving vehicles and by considering tire width, mathematical model of noise level was predicted on the basis of the obtained information and by usage of SPSS program and considering vehicle tire parameters. Result: The result of this study showed that the vehicle speed and tire width can affect different sound levels emitted by moving tire on road surface. The average speed of vehicles can play an important role in the noise pollution. By increasing speed, rotation of the the tires on the asphalt is increased, as it is a known factors for noise pollution. Moreover, changing the speed of vehicles is accompanied with abnormal sounds of vehicle engine. According to regression model analysis, the obtained value of R2 for the model is 0.8367 which represents the coefficient of determination. Conclusion: The results suggest the main role of the vehicle speed and tire width in increasing the noise reaches to the drivers and consequent noise pollution, which demonstrates the necessity for noise control measures. According to the obtained model, it is understood that changes in noise

  14. Model-predictive control based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model for electrical vehicles delayed model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khooban, Mohammad-Hassan; Vafamand, Navid; Niknam, Taher

    2017-01-01

    Electric vehicles (EVs) play a significant role in different applications, such as commuter vehicles and short distance transport applications. This study presents a new structure of model-predictive control based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model, linear matrix inequalities, and a non......-quadratic Lyapunov function for the speed control of EVs including time-delay states and parameter uncertainty. Experimental data, using the Federal Test Procedure (FTP-75), is applied to test the performance and robustness of the suggested controller in the presence of time-varying parameters. Besides, a comparison...... is made between the results of the suggested robust strategy and those obtained from some of the most recent studies on the same topic, to assess the efficiency of the suggested controller. Finally, the experimental results based on a TMS320F28335 DSP are performed on a direct current motor. Simulation...

  15. MODELING OF INVESTMENT STRATEGIES IN STOCKS MARKETS: AN APPROACH FROM MULTI AGENT BASED SIMULATION AND FUZZY LOGIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEJANDRO ESCOBAR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simulation model of a complex system, in this case a financial market, using a MultiAgent Based Simulation approach. Such model takes into account microlevel aspects like the Continuous Double Auction mechanism, which is widely used within stock markets, as well as investor agents reasoning who participate looking for profits. To model such reasoning several variables were considered including general stocks information like profitability and volatility, but also some agent's aspects like their risk tendency. All these variables are incorporated throughout a fuzzy logic approach trying to represent in a faithful manner the kind of reasoning that nonexpert investors have, including a stochastic component in order to model human factors.

  16. Model for Determining Geographical Distribution of Heat Saving Potentials in Danish Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Petrovic

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Since the global oil crisis in the 1970s, Denmark has followed a path towards energy independency by continuously improving its energy efficiency and energy conservation. Energy efficiency was mainly tackled by introducing a high number of combined heat and power plants in the system, while energy conservation was predominantly approached by implementing heat saving measures. Today, with the goal of 100% renewable energy within the power and heat sector by the year 2035, reductions in energy demand for space heating and the preparation of domestic hot water remain at the top of the agenda in Denmark. A highly detailed model for determining heat demand, possible heat savings and associated costs in the Danish building stock is presented. Both scheduled and energy-saving renovations until year 2030 have been analyzed. The highly detailed GIS-based heat atlas for Denmark is used as a container for storing data about physical properties for 2.5 million buildings in Denmark. Consequently, the results of the analysis can be represented on a single building level. Under the assumption that buildings with the most profitable heat savings are renovated first, the consequences of heat savings for the economy and energy system have been quantified and geographically referenced. The possibilities for further improvements of the model and the application to other geographical regions have been discussed.

  17. Modelling the Carbon Stocks Estimation of the Tropical Lowland Dipterocarp Forest Using LIDAR and Remotely Sensed Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaki, N. A. M.; Latif, Z. A.; Suratman, M. N.; Zainal, M. Z.

    2016-06-01

    Tropical forest embraces a large stock of carbon in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the enormous amount of above and below ground biomass. The carbon kept in the aboveground living biomass of trees is typically the largest pool and the most directly impacted by the anthropogenic factor such as deforestation and forest degradation. However, fewer studies had been proposed to model the carbon for tropical rain forest and the quantification still remain uncertainties. A multiple linear regression (MLR) is one of the methods to define the relationship between the field inventory measurements and the statistical extracted from the remotely sensed data which is LiDAR and WorldView-3 imagery (WV-3). This paper highlight the model development from fusion of multispectral WV-3 with the LIDAR metrics to model the carbon estimation of the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of the study area. The result shown the over segmentation and under segmentation value for this output is 0.19 and 0.11 respectively, thus D-value for the classification is 0.19 which is 81%. Overall, this study produce a significant correlation coefficient (r) between Crown projection area (CPA) and Carbon stocks (CS); height from LiDAR (H_LDR) and Carbon stocks (CS); and Crown projection area (CPA) and height from LiDAR (H_LDR) were shown 0.671, 0.709 and 0.549 respectively. The CPA of the segmentation found to be representative spatially with higher correlation of relationship between diameter at the breast height (DBH) and carbon stocks which is Pearson Correlation p = 0.000 (p using multiple linear regression method. The study concluded that the integration of WV-3 imagery with the CHM raster based LiDAR were useful in order to quantify the AGB and carbon stocks for a larger sample area of the Lowland Dipterocarp forest.

  18. Modelling of an advanced charging system for electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan Jaafar, Abdul; Rahman, Ataur; Mohiuddin, A. K. M.; Rashid, Mahbubur

    2017-03-01

    Climate Change is recognized as one of the greatest environmental problem facing the World today and it has long been appreciated by governments that reducing the impact of the internal combustion (IC) engine powered motor vehicle has an important part to play in addressing this threat. In Malaysia, IC engine powered motor vehicle accounts almost 90% of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The need to reduce the emission is paramount, as Malaysia has pledged to reduce 40% of CO2 intensity by 2020 from 2005 level by 25% of improvement in average fuel consumption. The introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) is one of the initiatives. However in terms of percentage, the electric vehicles have not been commonly used by people nowadays and one of the reasons is lack in charging infrastructure especially when cars are on the road. The aim of this study is to simulate and model an advanced charging system for the charging infrastructure of EVs/HEVs all over the nation with slow charging mode with charging current 25 A, medium charging mode with charging current 50 A and fast charging mode with charging current 100 A. The slow charging mode is proposed for residence, medium charging mode for office parking lots, and fast charging mode is called fast charging track for charging station on road. With three modes charger topology, consumers could choose a suitable mode for their car based on their need. The simulation and experiment of advanced charging system has been conducted on a scale down battery pack of nominal voltage of 3.75 V and capacity of 1020 mAh. Result shows that the battery could be charging less than 1 hour with fast charging mode. However, due to limitation of Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) power grid, the maximum 50 A current is considered to be the optimized passive mode for the EV’s battery charging system. The developed advanced charger prototype performance has been compared with the simulation result and conventional charger performance, the

  19. Estimation of a simple agent-based model of financial markets: An application to Australian stock and foreign exchange data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas; Wagner, Friedrich

    2006-10-01

    Following Alfarano et al. [Estimation of agent-based models: the case of an asymmetric herding model, Comput. Econ. 26 (2005) 19-49; Excess volatility and herding in an artificial financial market: analytical approach and estimation, in: W. Franz, H. Ramser, M. Stadler (Eds.), Funktionsfähigkeit und Stabilität von Finanzmärkten, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005, pp. 241-254], we consider a simple agent-based model of a highly stylized financial market. The model takes Kirman's ant process [A. Kirman, Epidemics of opinion and speculative bubbles in financial markets, in: M.P. Taylor (Ed.), Money and Financial Markets, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1991, pp. 354-368; A. Kirman, Ants, rationality, and recruitment, Q. J. Econ. 108 (1993) 137-156] of mimetic contagion as its starting point, but allows for asymmetry in the attractiveness of both groups. Embedding the contagion process into a standard asset-pricing framework, and identifying the abstract groups of the herding model as chartists and fundamentalist traders, a market with periodic bubbles and bursts is obtained. Taking stock of the availability of a closed-form solution for the stationary distribution of returns for this model, we can estimate its parameters via maximum likelihood. Expanding our earlier work, this paper presents pertinent estimates for the Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate and the Australian stock market index. As it turns out, our model indicates dominance of fundamentalist behavior in both the stock and foreign exchange market.

  20. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  1. Estimating national forest carbon stocks and dynamics: combining models and remotely sensed information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallman, Thomas Luke; Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, Anthony; Williams, Mathew

    2017-04-01

    Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle, storing significant amounts of carbon, split between living biomass and dead organic matter. The carbon budget of forests is the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle - it is currently impossible to quantify accurately the carbon source/sink strength of forest biomes due to their heterogeneity and complex dynamics. It has been a major challenge to generate robust carbon budgets across landscapes due to data scarcity. Models have been used for estimating carbon budgets, but outputs have lacked an assessment of uncertainty, making a robust assessment of their reliability and accuracy challenging. Here a Metropolis Hastings - Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MH-MCMC) data assimilation framework has been used to combine remotely sensed leaf area index (MODIS), biomass (where available) and deforestation estimates, in addition to forest planting information from the UK's national forest inventory, an estimate of soil carbon from the Harmonized World Database (HWSD) and plant trait information with a process model (DALEC) to produce a constrained analysis with a robust estimate of uncertainty of the UK forestry carbon budget between 2000 and 2010. Our analysis estimates the mean annual UK forest carbon sink at -3.9 MgC ha-1 yr-1 with a 95 % confidence interval between -4.0 and -3.1 MgC ha-1yr-1. The UK national forest inventory (NFI) estimates the mean UK forest carbon sink to be between -1.4 and -5.5 MgC ha-1 yr-1. The analysis estimate for total forest biomass stock in 2010 is estimated at 229 (177/232) TgC, while the NFI an estimated total forest biomass carbon stock of 216 TgC. Leaf carbon area (LCA) is a key plant trait which we are able to estimate using our analysis. Comparison of median estimates for (LCA) retrieved from the analysis and a UK land cover map show higher and lower values for LCA are estimated areas dominated by needle leaf and broad leaf forests forest respectively, consistent with

  2. Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suharsono, Agus; Aziza, Auliya; Pramesti, Wara

    2017-12-01

    Capital markets can be an indicator of the development of a country's economy. The presence of capital markets also encourages investors to trade; therefore investors need information and knowledge of which shares are better. One way of making decisions for short-term investments is the need for modeling to forecast stock prices in the period to come. Issue of stock market-stock integration ASEAN is very important. The problem is that ASEAN does not have much time to implement one market in the economy, so it would be very interesting if there is evidence whether the capital market in the ASEAN region, especially the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand deserve to be integrated or still segmented. Furthermore, it should also be known and proven What kind of integration is happening: what A capital market affects only the market Other capital, or a capital market only Influenced by other capital markets, or a Capital market as well as affecting as well Influenced by other capital markets in one ASEAN region. In this study, it will compare forecasting of Indonesian share price (IHSG) with neighboring countries (ASEAN) including developed and developing countries such as Malaysia (KLSE), Singapore (SGE), Thailand (SETI), Philippines (PSE) to find out which stock country the most superior and influential. These countries are the founders of ASEAN and share price index owners who have close relations with Indonesia in terms of trade, especially exports and imports. Stock price modeling in this research is using multivariate time series analysis that is VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Modeling). VAR and VECM models not only predict more than one variable but also can see the interrelations between variables with each other. If the assumption of white noise is not met in the VAR modeling, then the cause can be assumed that there is an outlier. With this modeling will be able to know the pattern of relationship

  3. Optimal sizing of plug-in fuel cell electric vehicles using models of vehicle performance and system cost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Liangfei; Ouyang, Minggao; Li, Jianqiu; Yang, Fuyuan; Lu, Languang; Hua, Jianfeng

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► An analytical model for vehicle performance and power-train parameters. ► Quantitative relationships between vehicle performance and power-train parameters. ► Optimal sizing rules that help designing an optimal PEM fuel cell power-train. ► An on-road testing showing the performance of the proposed vehicle. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimal sizing method for plug-in proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell and lithium-ion battery (LIB) powered city buses. We propose a theoretical model describing the relationship between components’ parameters and vehicle performance. Analysis results show that within the working range of the electric motor, the maximal velocity and driving distance are influenced linearly by the parameters of the components, e.g. fuel cell efficiency, fuel cell output power, stored hydrogen mass, vehicle auxiliary power, battery capacity, and battery average resistance. Moreover, accelerating time is also linearly dependant on the abovementioned parameters, except of those of the battery. Next, we attempt to minimize fixed and operating costs by introducing an optimal sizing problem that uses as constraints the requirements on vehicle performance. By solving this problem, we attain several optimal sizing rules. Finally, we use these rules to design a plug-in PEM fuel cell city bus and present performance results obtained by on-road testing.

  4. Power-based electric vehicle energy consumption model: Model development and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiori, Chiara; Ahn, Kyoungho; Rakha, Hesham A.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The study developed an instantaneous energy consumption model (VT-CPEM) for EVs. • The model captures instantaneous braking energy regeneration. • The model can be used for transportation modeling and vehicle applications (e.g. eco-routing). • The proposed model can be easily calibrated using publically available EV data. • Usages of air conditioning and heating systems reduce EV energy consumption by up to 10% and 24%, respectively. - Abstract: The limited drive range (The maximum distance that an EV can travel.) of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is one of the major challenges that EV manufacturers are attempting to overcome. To this end, a simple, accurate, and efficient energy consumption model is needed to develop real-time eco-driving and eco-routing systems that can enhance the energy efficiency of EVs and thus extend their travel range. Although numerous publications have focused on the modeling of EV energy consumption levels, these studies are limited to measuring energy consumption of an EV’s control algorithm, macro-project evaluations, or simplified well-to-wheels analyses. Consequently, this paper addresses this need by developing a simple EV energy model that computes an EV’s instantaneous energy consumption using second-by-second vehicle speed, acceleration and roadway grade data as input variables. In doing so, the model estimates the instantaneous braking energy regeneration. The proposed model can be easily implemented in the following applications: in-vehicle, Smartphone eco-driving, eco-routing and transportation simulation software to quantify the network-wide energy consumption levels for a fleet of EVs. One of the main advantages of EVs is their ability to recover energy while braking using a regenerative braking system. State-of-the-art vehicle energy consumption models consider an average constant regenerative braking energy efficiency or regenerative braking factors that are mainly dependent on the vehicle’s average

  5. NASA 3D Models: Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) is one of the largest buildings in the world. It was originally built for assembly of Apollo/Saturn vehicles and was later...

  6. Modeling global mangrove soil carbon stocks: filling the gaps in coastal environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovai, A.; Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    We provide an overview of contemporaneous global mangrove soil organic carbon (SOC) estimates, focusing on a framework to explain disproportionate differences among observed data as a way to improve global estimates. This framework is based on a former conceptual model, the coastal environmental setting, in contrast to the more popular latitude-based hypotheses largely believed to explain hemispheric variation in mangrove ecosystem properties. To demonstrate how local and regional estimates of SOC linked to coastal environmental settings can render more realistic global mangrove SOC extrapolations we combined published and unpublished data, yielding a total of 106 studies, reporting on 552 sites from 43 countries. These sites were classified into distinct coastal environmental setting types according to two concurrent worldwide typology of nearshore coastal systems classifications. Mangrove SOC density varied substantially across coastal environmental settings, ranging from 14.9 ± 0.8 in river dominated (deltaic) soils to 53.9 ± 1.6 mg cm-3 (mean ± SE) in karstic coastlines. Our findings reveal striking differences between published values and contemporary global mangrove SOC extrapolation based on country-level mean reference values, particularly for karstic-dominated coastlines where mangrove SOC stocks have been underestimated by up to 50%. Correspondingly, climate-based global estimates predicted lower mangrove SOC density values (32-41 mg C cm-3) for mangroves in karstic environments, differing from published (21-126 mg C cm-3) and unpublished (47-58 mg C cm-3) values. Moreover, climate-based projections yielded higher SOC density values (27-70 mg C cm-3) for river-dominated mangroves compared to lower ranges reported in the literature (11-24 mg C cm-3). We argue that this inconsistent reporting of SOC stock estimates between river-dominated and karstic coastal environmental settings is likely due to the omission of geomorphological and geophysical

  7. Autonomous guided vehicles methods and models for optimal path planning

    CERN Document Server

    Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

    2015-01-01

      This book provides readers with extensive information on path planning optimization for both single and multiple Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGVs), and discusses practical issues involved in advanced industrial applications of AGVs. After discussing previously published research in the field and highlighting the current gaps, it introduces new models developed by the authors with the goal of reducing costs and increasing productivity and effectiveness in the manufacturing industry. The new models address the increasing complexity of manufacturing networks, due for example to the adoption of flexible manufacturing systems that involve automated material handling systems, robots, numerically controlled machine tools, and automated inspection stations, while also considering the uncertainty and stochastic nature of automated equipment such as AGVs. The book discusses and provides solutions to important issues concerning the use of AGVs in the manufacturing industry, including material flow optimization with A...

  8. Heterogeneous stock rat: a unique animal model for mapping genes influencing bone fragility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Imranul; Koller, Daniel L; Sun, Qiwei; Roeder, Ryan K; Cañete, Toni; Blázquez, Gloria; López-Aumatell, Regina; Martínez-Membrives, Esther; Vicens-Costa, Elia; Mont, Carme; Díaz, Sira; Tobeña, Adolf; Fernández-Teruel, Alberto; Whitley, Adam; Strid, Pernilla; Diez, Margarita; Johannesson, Martina; Flint, Jonathan; Econs, Michael J; Turner, Charles H; Foroud, Tatiana

    2011-05-01

    Previously, we demonstrated that skeletal mass, structure and biomechanical properties vary considerably among 11 different inbred rat strains. Subsequently, we performed quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis in four inbred rat strains (F344, LEW, COP and DA) for different bone phenotypes and identified several candidate genes influencing various bone traits. The standard approach to narrowing QTL intervals down to a few candidate genes typically employs the generation of congenic lines, which is time consuming and often not successful. A potential alternative approach is to use a highly genetically informative animal model resource capable of delivering very high resolution gene mapping such as Heterogeneous stock (HS) rat. HS rat was derived from eight inbred progenitors: ACI/N, BN/SsN, BUF/N, F344/N, M520/N, MR/N, WKY/N and WN/N. The genetic recombination pattern generated across 50 generations in these rats has been shown to deliver ultra-high even gene-level resolution for complex genetic studies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the usefulness of the HS rat model for fine mapping and identification of genes underlying bone fragility phenotypes. We compared bone geometry, density and strength phenotypes at multiple skeletal sites in HS rats with those obtained from five of the eight progenitor inbred strains. In addition, we estimated the heritability for different bone phenotypes in these rats and employed principal component analysis to explore relationships among bone phenotypes in the HS rats. Our study demonstrates that significant variability exists for different skeletal phenotypes in HS rats compared with their inbred progenitors. In addition, we estimated high heritability for several bone phenotypes and biologically interpretable factors explaining significant overall variability, suggesting that the HS rat model could be a unique genetic resource for rapid and efficient discovery of the genetic determinants of bone fragility. Copyright

  9. Harvesting policy for a delayed stage-structured Holling II predator-prey model with impulsive stocking prey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiao Jianjun; Meng Xinzhu; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    A predator-prey model with a stage structure for the predator, which improves the assumption that each individual predator has the same ability to capture prey, is proposed by Wang et al. [Wang W, Mulone G, Salemi F, Salone V. Permanence and stability of a stage-structured predator-prey model. J Math Anal Appl 2001;262:499-528]. It is assumed that immature individuals and mature individuals of the predator are divided by a fixed age and that immature predators do not have the ability to attack prey. We do economic management behavior for Wang model [Wang et al., 2001] by continuous harvesting on predator and impulsive stocking on prey. Then, a delayed stage-structured Holling type II predator-prey model with impulsive stocking prey and continuous harvesting predator is established. It is also assumed that the predating products of the predator is only to increase its bearing ability. We obtain the sufficient conditions of the global attractivity of predator-extinction boundary periodic solution and the permanence of the system. Our results show that the behavior of impulsive stocking prey plays an important role for the permanence of the system, and provide tactical basis for the biological resource management. Further, the numerical analysis is also inserted to illuminate the dynamics of the system.

  10. Modelling the topsoil carbon stock of agricultural lands with the Stochastic Gradient Treeboost in a semi-arid Mediterranean region

    KAUST Repository

    Schillaci, Calogero

    2016-10-29

    Efficient modelling methods to assess soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks have a pivotal importance as inputs for global carbon cycle studies and decision-making processes. However, laboratory analyses of SOC field samples are costly and time consuming. Global-scale estimates of SOC were recently made according to categorical variables, including land use and soil texture. Remote sensing (RS) data can contribute to the better modelling of the spatial distribution of SOC stock at a regional scale. In the present study, we used Stochastic Gradient Treeboost (SGT) to estimate the topsoil (0–30 cm) SOC stock of a Mediterranean semiarid area (Sicily, Italy, 25,286 km2). In particular, our study examined agricultural lands, which represent approximately 64% of the entire region. An extensive soil dataset (2202 samples, 1 profile/7.31 km2 on average) was acquired from the soil database of Sicily. The georeferenced field observations were intersected with remotely sensed environmental data and other spatial data, including climatic data from WORLDCLIM, land cover from CORINE, soil texture, topography and derived indices. Finally, the SGT was compared to published global estimates (GSOC) and data from the International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC) Soil Grids by comparing the pseudo-regressions of the SGT, GSOC and ISRIC with soil observations. The mean SOC stock across the entire region that was estimated by GSOC and ISRIC was 3.9% lower and 46.2% higher compared to the SGT. The SGT efficiently predicted SOC stocks that were < 70 t ha− 1 (corresponding to the 90th percentile of the observed values). On average, the coefficient of variation of the SGT model was 3.6% when computed on the whole dataset and remained lower than 23% when computed on a distribution basis. The SGT mean absolute error was 14.84 t ha− 1, 18.4% and 36.3% lower than GSOC and ISRIC, respectively. The mean annual rainfall, soil texture, land use, mean annual temperature and Landsat 7

  11. Modelling the topsoil carbon stock of agricultural lands with the Stochastic Gradient Treeboost in a semi-arid Mediterranean region

    KAUST Repository

    Schillaci, Calogero; Lombardo, Luigi; Saia, Sergio; Fantappiè , Maria; Mä rker, Michael; Acutis, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Efficient modelling methods to assess soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks have a pivotal importance as inputs for global carbon cycle studies and decision-making processes. However, laboratory analyses of SOC field samples are costly and time consuming. Global-scale estimates of SOC were recently made according to categorical variables, including land use and soil texture. Remote sensing (RS) data can contribute to the better modelling of the spatial distribution of SOC stock at a regional scale. In the present study, we used Stochastic Gradient Treeboost (SGT) to estimate the topsoil (0–30 cm) SOC stock of a Mediterranean semiarid area (Sicily, Italy, 25,286 km2). In particular, our study examined agricultural lands, which represent approximately 64% of the entire region. An extensive soil dataset (2202 samples, 1 profile/7.31 km2 on average) was acquired from the soil database of Sicily. The georeferenced field observations were intersected with remotely sensed environmental data and other spatial data, including climatic data from WORLDCLIM, land cover from CORINE, soil texture, topography and derived indices. Finally, the SGT was compared to published global estimates (GSOC) and data from the International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ISRIC) Soil Grids by comparing the pseudo-regressions of the SGT, GSOC and ISRIC with soil observations. The mean SOC stock across the entire region that was estimated by GSOC and ISRIC was 3.9% lower and 46.2% higher compared to the SGT. The SGT efficiently predicted SOC stocks that were < 70 t ha− 1 (corresponding to the 90th percentile of the observed values). On average, the coefficient of variation of the SGT model was 3.6% when computed on the whole dataset and remained lower than 23% when computed on a distribution basis. The SGT mean absolute error was 14.84 t ha− 1, 18.4% and 36.3% lower than GSOC and ISRIC, respectively. The mean annual rainfall, soil texture, land use, mean annual temperature and Landsat 7

  12. Occupant-vehicle dynamics and the role of the internal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, David J.

    2018-05-01

    With the increasing need to reduce time and cost of vehicle development there is increasing advantage in simulating mathematically the dynamic interaction of a vehicle and its occupant. The larger design space arising from the introduction of automated vehicles further increases the potential advantage. The aim of the paper is to outline the role of the internal model hypothesis in understanding and modelling occupant-vehicle dynamics, specifically the dynamics associated with direction and speed control of the vehicle. The internal model is the driver's or passenger's understanding of the vehicle dynamics and is thought to be employed in the perception, cognition and action processes of the brain. The internal model aids the estimation of the states of the vehicle from noisy sensory measurements. It can also be used to optimise cognitive control action by predicting the consequence of the action; thus model predictive control (MPC) theory provides a foundation for modelling the cognition process. The stretch reflex of the neuromuscular system also makes use of the prediction of the internal model. Extensions to the MPC approach are described which account for: interaction with an automated vehicle; robust control; intermittent control; and cognitive workload. Further work to extend understanding of occupant-vehicle dynamic interaction is outlined. This paper is based on a keynote presentation given by the author to the 13th International Symposium on Advanced Vehicle Control (AVEC) conference held in Munich, September 2016.

  13. Study on the Market Risk Measurement of the Style Portfolios in Stock Markets Based on EVT-t-Copula Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Zhou

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For the presence of non-normal distribution characteristics in the financial assets returns, the model of AR(1-GJR(1,1 is used to characterize the marginal distribution of the style assets in China stock market. The Copula function is introduced to analyze the dependency structure between the six style assets, combined with the marginal distributed residual sequences. And the joint return distribution of the style portfolios is simulated, combined with extreme value theory and Monte Carlo simulation method. Then the market risks (VaR and CVaR of the style portfolios in China stock markets are obtained. The results of the study show that the generalized Pareto distribution Model can well fit the non-normal distribution characteristics such as peak and fat tail in the style assets returns.

  14. Pengembangan Model Consignment Stock pada Sistem Rantai Pasok Dua Eselon dengan Permintaan Berfluktuasi dan Perubahan Order Awal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan D. Wangsa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Scheduling changes on the production floor are common in practice to meet the consumer demand and these cause the nervousness. The nervousness in turn will result in increased costs and reduced service level. This research deals with  production batch size and buffer stock taking into account changes in a preliminary order. Change in the demand for a given day is announced one day before and this is viewed as it occurs randomly. This research was considered in two echelon supply chain system with a single supplier and single manufacturer. The development of model is transactional relationship and consignment stock contract relationship. This study also considers the backorder and production capacity according to the real condition. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the performance of the models. From the numerical results, it appears that coefficient variation (CV of the demand affects the results obtained using method of SM and LUC.

  15. Study on Emission Measurement of Vehicle on Road Based on Binomial Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aly, Sumarni Hamid; Selintung, Mary; Ramli, Muhammad Isran; Sumi, Tomonori

    2011-01-01

    This research attempts to evaluate emission measurement of on road vehicle. In this regard, the research develops failure probability model of vehicle emission test for passenger car which utilize binomial logit model. The model focuses on failure of CO and HC emission test for gasoline cars category and Opacity emission test for diesel-fuel cars category as dependent variables, while vehicle age, engine size, brand and type of the cars as independent variables. In order to imp...

  16. Detection and 3d Modelling of Vehicles from Terrestrial Stereo Image Pairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coenen, M.; Rottensteiner, F.; Heipke, C.

    2017-05-01

    The detection and pose estimation of vehicles plays an important role for automated and autonomous moving objects e.g. in autonomous driving environments. We tackle that problem on the basis of street level stereo images, obtained from a moving vehicle. Processing every stereo pair individually, our approach is divided into two subsequent steps: the vehicle detection and the modelling step. For the detection, we make use of the 3D stereo information and incorporate geometric assumptions on vehicle inherent properties in a firstly applied generic 3D object detection. By combining our generic detection approach with a state of the art vehicle detector, we are able to achieve satisfying detection results with values for completeness and correctness up to more than 86%. By fitting an object specific vehicle model into the vehicle detections, we are able to reconstruct the vehicles in 3D and to derive pose estimations as well as shape parameters for each vehicle. To deal with the intra-class variability of vehicles, we make use of a deformable 3D active shape model learned from 3D CAD vehicle data in our model fitting approach. While we achieve encouraging values up to 67.2% for correct position estimations, we are facing larger problems concerning the orientation estimation. The evaluation is done by using the object detection and orientation estimation benchmark of the KITTI dataset (Geiger et al., 2012).

  17. A Technical Analysis Information Fusion Approach for Stock Price Analysis and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, we address the problem of technical analysis information fusion in improving stock market index-level prediction. We present an approach for analyzing stock market price behavior based on different categories of technical analysis metrics and a multiple predictive system. Each category of technical analysis measures is used to characterize stock market price movements. The presented predictive system is based on an ensemble of neural networks (NN) coupled with particle swarm intelligence for parameter optimization where each single neural network is trained with a specific category of technical analysis measures. The experimental evaluation on three international stock market indices and three individual stocks show that the presented ensemble-based technical indicators fusion system significantly improves forecasting accuracy in comparison with single NN. Also, it outperforms the classical neural network trained with index-level lagged values and NN trained with stationary wavelet transform details and approximation coefficients. As a result, technical information fusion in NN ensemble architecture helps improving prediction accuracy.

  18. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  19. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Guan

    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBPNeural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS. On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  20. A novel stock forecasting model based on High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation Trends and Back Propagation Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Hongjun; Dai, Zongli; Zhao, Aiwu; He, Jie

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid method to forecast the stock prices called High-order-fuzzy-fluctuation-Trends-based Back Propagation(HTBP)Neural Network model. First, we compare each value of the historical training data with the previous day's value to obtain a fluctuation trend time series (FTTS). On this basis, the FTTS blur into fuzzy time series (FFTS) based on the fluctuation of the increasing, equality, decreasing amplitude and direction. Since the relationship between FFTS and future wave trends is nonlinear, the HTBP neural network algorithm is used to find the mapping rules in the form of self-learning. Finally, the results of the algorithm output are used to predict future fluctuations. The proposed model provides some innovative features:(1)It combines fuzzy set theory and neural network algorithm to avoid overfitting problems existed in traditional models. (2)BP neural network algorithm can intelligently explore the internal rules of the actual existence of sequential data, without the need to analyze the influence factors of specific rules and the path of action. (3)The hybrid modal can reasonably remove noises from the internal rules by proper fuzzy treatment. This paper takes the TAIEX data set of Taiwan stock exchange as an example, and compares and analyzes the prediction performance of the model. The experimental results show that this method can predict the stock market in a very simple way. At the same time, we use this method to predict the Shanghai stock exchange composite index, and further verify the effectiveness and universality of the method.

  1. An EOQ Model with Stock-Dependent Demand under Two Levels of Trade Credit and Time Value of Money

    OpenAIRE

    H.A.O. Jia-Qin; M.O. Jiangtao

    2013-01-01

    Since the value of money changes with time, it is necessary to take account of the influence of time factor in making the replenishment policy. In this study, to investigate the influence of the time value of money to the inventory strategy, an inventory system for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand is investigated under two levels of trade credit. The method to efficiently determine the optimal cycle time is presented. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the model and...

  2. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadburn, Sarah E.; Krinner, Gerhard; Porada, Philipp; Bartsch, Annett; Beer, Christian; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; Boike, Julia; Ekici, Altug; Elberling, Bo; Friborg, Thomas; Hugelius, Gustaf; Johansson, Margareta; Kuhry, Peter; Kutzbach, Lars; Langer, Moritz; Lund, Magnus; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peng, Shushi; Van Huissteden, Ko; Wang, Tao; Westermann, Sebastian; Zhu, Dan; Burke, Eleanor J.

    2017-11-01

    It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that

  3. A Vehicle Active Safety Model: Vehicle Speed Control Based on Driver Vigilance Detection Using Wearable EEG and Sparse Representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zutao; Luo, Dianyuan; Rasim, Yagubov; Li, Yanjun; Meng, Guanjun; Xu, Jian; Wang, Chunbai

    2016-02-19

    In this paper, we present a vehicle active safety model for vehicle speed control based on driver vigilance detection using low-cost, comfortable, wearable electroencephalographic (EEG) sensors and sparse representation. The proposed system consists of three main steps, namely wireless wearable EEG collection, driver vigilance detection, and vehicle speed control strategy. First of all, a homemade low-cost comfortable wearable brain-computer interface (BCI) system with eight channels is designed for collecting the driver's EEG signal. Second, wavelet de-noising and down-sample algorithms are utilized to enhance the quality of EEG data, and Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) is adopted to extract the EEG power spectrum density (PSD). In this step, sparse representation classification combined with k-singular value decomposition (KSVD) is firstly introduced in PSD to estimate the driver's vigilance level. Finally, a novel safety strategy of vehicle speed control, which controls the electronic throttle opening and automatic braking after driver fatigue detection using the above method, is presented to avoid serious collisions and traffic accidents. The simulation and practical testing results demonstrate the feasibility of the vehicle active safety model.

  4. A Vehicle Active Safety Model: Vehicle Speed Control Based on Driver Vigilance Detection Using Wearable EEG and Sparse Representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zutao Zhang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a vehicle active safety model for vehicle speed control based on driver vigilance detection using low-cost, comfortable, wearable electroencephalographic (EEG sensors and sparse representation. The proposed system consists of three main steps, namely wireless wearable EEG collection, driver vigilance detection, and vehicle speed control strategy. First of all, a homemade low-cost comfortable wearable brain-computer interface (BCI system with eight channels is designed for collecting the driver’s EEG signal. Second, wavelet de-noising and down-sample algorithms are utilized to enhance the quality of EEG data, and Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT is adopted to extract the EEG power spectrum density (PSD. In this step, sparse representation classification combined with k-singular value decomposition (KSVD is firstly introduced in PSD to estimate the driver’s vigilance level. Finally, a novel safety strategy of vehicle speed control, which controls the electronic throttle opening and automatic braking after driver fatigue detection using the above method, is presented to avoid serious collisions and traffic accidents. The simulation and practical testing results demonstrate the feasibility of the vehicle active safety model.

  5. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...... to uncontrolled charging from load shifting based on driving pattern predictions. The future energy system in Denmark will most likely be based on renewable energy sources e.g. wind and solar power. These green energy sources introduce stochastic fluctuations in the electricity production. Therefore, energy...

  6. Uncertainty and Preference Modelling for Multiple Criteria Vehicle Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuping Yang

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A general framework for vehicle assessment is proposed based on both mass survey information and the evidential reasoning (ER approach. Several methods for uncertainty and preference modeling are developed within the framework, including the measurement of uncertainty caused by missing information, the estimation of missing information in original surveys, the use of nonlinear functions for data mapping, and the use of nonlinear functions as utility function to combine distributed assessments into a single index. The results of the investigation show that various measures can be used to represent the different preferences of decision makers towards the same feedback from respondents. Based on the ER approach, credible and informative analysis can be conducted through the complete understanding of the assessment problem in question and the full exploration of available information.

  7. Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated

  8. A Novel Mobile Personalized Recommended Method Based on Money Flow Model for Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingzhen Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Personalized recommended method is widely used to recommend commodities for target customers in e-commerce sector. The core idea of merchandise personalized recommendation can be applied to financial field, which can also achieve stock personalized recommendation. This paper proposes a new recommended method using collaborative filtering based on user fuzzy clustering and predicts the trend of those stocks based on money flow. We use M/G/1 queue system with multiple vacations and server close-down time to measure practical money flow. Based on the indicated results of money flow, we can select the more valued stock to recommend to investors. The experimental results show that the proposed method provides investors with reliable practical investment guidance and receiving more returns.

  9. SIMPLIFIED MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SMALL SIZED UNMANNED AIRCRAFT VEHICLE LAYOUT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Strong reduction of new aircraft design period using new technology based on artificial intelligence is the key problem mentioned in forecasts of leading aerospace industry research centers. This article covers the approach to devel- opment of quick aerodynamic design methods based on artificial intelligence neural system. The problem is being solved for the classical scheme of small sized unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAV. The principal parts of the method are the mathe- matical model of layout, layout generator of this type of aircraft is built on aircraft neural networks, automatic selection module for cleaning variety of layouts generated in automatic mode, robust direct computational fluid dynamics method, aerodynamic characteristics approximators on artificial neural networks.Methods based on artificial neural networks have intermediate position between computational fluid dynamics methods or experiments and simplified engineering approaches. The use of ANN for estimating aerodynamic characteris-tics put limitations on input data. For this task the layout must be presented as a vector with dimension not exceeding sev-eral hundred. Vector components must include all main parameters conventionally used for layouts description and com- pletely replicate the most important aerodynamics and structural properties.The first stage of the work is presented in the paper. Simplified mathematical model of small sized UAV was developed. To estimate the range of geometrical parameters of layouts the review of existing vehicle was done. The result of the work is the algorithm and computer software for generating the layouts based on ANN technolo-gy. 10000 samples were generated and the dataset containig geometrical and aerodynamic characteristics of layoutwas created.

  10. MODELLING THE CARBON STOCKS ESTIMATION OF THE TROPICAL LOWLAND DIPTEROCARP FOREST USING LIDAR AND REMOTELY SENSED DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. M. Zaki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forest embraces a large stock of carbon in the global carbon cycle and contributes to the enormous amount of above and below ground biomass. The carbon kept in the aboveground living biomass of trees is typically the largest pool and the most directly impacted by the anthropogenic factor such as deforestation and forest degradation. However, fewer studies had been proposed to model the carbon for tropical rain forest and the quantification still remain uncertainties. A multiple linear regression (MLR is one of the methods to define the relationship between the field inventory measurements and the statistical extracted from the remotely sensed data which is LiDAR and WorldView-3 imagery (WV-3. This paper highlight the model development from fusion of multispectral WV-3 with the LIDAR metrics to model the carbon estimation of the tropical lowland Dipterocarp forest of the study area. The result shown the over segmentation and under segmentation value for this output is 0.19 and 0.11 respectively, thus D-value for the classification is 0.19 which is 81%. Overall, this study produce a significant correlation coefficient (r between Crown projection area (CPA and Carbon stocks (CS; height from LiDAR (H_LDR and Carbon stocks (CS; and Crown projection area (CPA and height from LiDAR (H_LDR were shown 0.671, 0.709 and 0.549 respectively. The CPA of the segmentation found to be representative spatially with higher correlation of relationship between diameter at the breast height (DBH and carbon stocks which is Pearson Correlation p = 0.000 (p Dipterocarp forest.

  11. Modeling and Analysis of an Air-Breathing Flexible Hypersonic Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi-bin Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available By using light-weighted material in hypersonic vehicle, the vehicle body can be easily deformed. The mutual couplings in aerodynamics, flexible structure, and propulsion system will bring great challenges for vehicle modeling. In this work, engineering estimated method is used to calculate the aerodynamic forces, moments, and flexible modes to get the physics-based model of an air-breathing flexible hypersonic vehicle. The model, which contains flexible effects and viscous effects, can capture the physical characteristics of high-speed flight. To overcome the analytical intractability of the model, a simplified control-oriented model of the hypersonic vehicle is presented with curve fitting approximations. The control-oriented model can not only reduce the complexity of the model, but also retain aero-flexible structure-propulsion interactions of the physics-based model and can be applied for nonlinear control.

  12. Vehicle operation characteristic under different ramp entrance conditions in underground road: Analysis, simulation and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Qiming; Liu, Shuo; Liu, Yang

    2018-05-01

    An experimental design was used to study the vehicle operation characteristics of different ramp entrance conditions in underground road. With driving simulator, the experimental scenarios include left or right ramp with first, second and third service level, respectively, to collect vehicle speed, acceleration, lateral displacement and location information at the ramp entrance section. By using paired t-test and ANOVA, the influence factors of vehicle operating characteristics are studied. The result shows that effects of ramp layout and mainline traffic environment on vehicle operation characteristics are significant. The regression model of vehicle traveling distance on acceleration lane is established. Suggestions are made for ramp entrance design of underground road.

  13. Performance Measurement Model for the Consumer Industry Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange: DEA and SFA Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.Handono Eko Prabowo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  research  attempts  to  provide  performance  measurement  model  for  the  consumer industry listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX by  using the data envelopment analysis (DEA and the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA. There were 36 panel irms analyzed over the period of 2000-2005 or 216 pooled observations. The output variable was total sales and input variables were labor, inventory, ixed assets and capital. Z-variables are age of the irm, size  of  the  irm,  market  share  and  time  period.  Empirical  indings  reveal  that  the  average technical  eficiency  (mean  TE  for  consumer  industry  was  0.6630.  The  study  indicates  the existence of output slacks (output deicits and input slacks (input wastages in the consumer industry's  operation.  The  study  also  shows  that  the  joint  effect  of  four  z-variables  on  the technical  ineficiencies  of  the  consumer  industry  was  signiicant  although  the  individual effects of one or more variables might not be statistically signiicant. ";} // -->activate javascript

  14. Towards a Very Low Energy Building Stock: Modeling the U.S. Commercial Building Sector to Support Policy and Innovation Planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coffey, Brian; Borgeson, Sam; Selkowitz, Stephen; Apte, Josh; Mathew, Paul; Haves, Philip

    2009-07-01

    This paper describes the origin, structure and continuing development of a model of time varying energy consumption in the US commercial building stock. The model is based on a flexible structure that disaggregates the stock into various categories (e.g. by building type, climate, vintage and life-cycle stage) and assigns attributes to each of these (e.g. floor area and energy use intensity by fuel type and end use), based on historical data and user-defined scenarios for future projections. In addition to supporting the interactive exploration of building stock dynamics, the model has been used to study the likely outcomes of specific policy and innovation scenarios targeting very low future energy consumption in the building stock. Model use has highlighted the scale of the challenge of meeting targets stated by various government and professional bodies, and the importance of considering both new construction and existing buildings.

  15. Motion modelling and control strategies of over-actuated vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Edrén, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    With the growing concern for environmental change and uncertain oil resources, the development of new vehicle concepts will in many cases include full or partial electric propulsion. The introduction of more advanced powertrains enables vehicles that can be controlled with a variety of electric actuators, such as wheel hub motors and individual steering. With these actuators, the chassis can be enabled to adjust its properties depending on the driving situation. Manoeuvring of the vehicle, us...

  16. A Buffer Stock Model to Ensure Price Stabilization and Availability of Seasonal Staple Food under Free Trade Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyudi Sutopo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The price volatility and scarcity have been became a great problem in the distribution system of seasonal staple food produced by agro industry. It has salient supply disparity during the harvest and planting season. This condition could cause disadvantages to the stakeholders such as producer, wholesaler, consumer, and government. This paper proposes a buffer stock model under free trade considerations to substitute quantitative restrictions and tariffs by indirect market intervention instrument. The instrument was developed through buffer stock scheme in accordance with warehouse receipt system (WRS and collateral management system. The public service institution for staple food buffer stock (BLUPP is proposed as wholesaler’s competitor with main responsibility to ensure price stabilization and availability of staple food. Multi criteria decision making is formulated as single objective a mixed integer non linear programming (MINLP. The result shows that the proposed model can be applied to solve the distribution problem and can give more promising outcome than its counterpart, the direct market intervention instrument.

  17. Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Chin Wen

    2008-02-01

    This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

  18. State of the Irish housing stock—Modelling the heat losses of Ireland's existing detached rural housing stock and estimating the benefit of thermal retrofit measures on this stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahern, Ciara; Griffiths, Philip; O'Flaherty, Micheál

    2013-01-01

    Ireland's housing stock has been identified as being amongst the least energy efficient in Northern Europe. Consequently, atmospheric emissions are greater than necessary. Government funded schemes have been introduced to incentivise the uptake of thermal retrofit measures in the domestic Irish market. A study of Ireland's housing highlights the dominance of detached houses (43%), 72% of which are rurally located and are predominantly heated with fuel oil. This paper investigates the economic and carbon case for thermal retrofit measures to the existing detached, oil centrally heated, rural housing stock. The study found the case for energy efficiency measures to be categorical and supports the Irish Government's focus on energy efficiency policy measures. Thermal retrofit measures in the detached housing stock have the potential to realise an averaged 65% theoretical reduction in heating costs and CO 2 emissions for houses constructed prior to 1979 (coinciding with the introduction of building regulations) and around 26% for newer homes, thus offering a significant contribution (44%) to Ireland's residential carbon abatement projections and hence in meeting the EU's directives on energy and carbon. The greatest savings (36%) of Ireland's carbon abatement projections result from improving the energy efficiency of the pre 1979 stock. - Highlights: ► Model constructs base geometry of detached rural Irish dwellings by age band. ► Model quantifies savings to this stock via The National Insulation Scheme. ► Results offer significant contribution to Ireland's carbon abatement projections. ► Greatest savings result from retrofitting the pre 1979 stock. ► Government needs to introduce PAYS scheme or similar to engage public at large

  19. Forecasting the value-at-risk of Chinese stock market using the HARQ model and extreme value theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guangqiang; Wei, Yu; Chen, Yongfei; Yu, Jiang; Hu, Yang

    2018-06-01

    Using intraday data of the CSI300 index, this paper discusses value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting of the Chinese stock market from the perspective of high-frequency volatility models. First, we measure the realized volatility (RV) with 5-minute high-frequency returns of the CSI300 index and then model it with the newly introduced heterogeneous autoregressive quarticity (HARQ) model, which can handle the time-varying coefficients of the HAR model. Second, we forecast the out-of-sample VaR of the CSI300 index by combining the HARQ model and extreme value theory (EVT). Finally, using several popular backtesting methods, we compare the VaR forecasting accuracy of HARQ model with other traditional HAR-type models, such as HAR, HAR-J, CHAR, and SHAR. The empirical results show that the novel HARQ model can beat other HAR-type models in forecasting the VaR of the Chinese stock market at various risk levels.

  20. Modeling hydraulic regenerative hybrid vehicles using AMESim and Matlab/Simulink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Alfred; Smid, Edzko; Eshraghi, Moji; Caldwell, Niall; Woody, Dan

    2005-05-01

    This paper presents the overview of the simulation modeling of a hydraulic system with regenerative braking used to improve vehicle emissions and fuel economy. Two simulation software packages were used together to enhance the simulation capability for fuel economy results and development of vehicle and hybrid control strategy. AMESim, a hydraulic simulation software package modeled the complex hydraulic circuit and component hardware and was interlinked with a Matlab/Simulink model of the vehicle, engine and the control strategy required to operate the vehicle and the hydraulic hybrid system through various North American and European drive cycles.

  1. Three-dimensional flow structure measurements behind a queue of studied model vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, J.F.; Chan, T.L.; Zhou, Y.

    2009-01-01

    The three-dimensional flow structures of a queue of studied model vehicles (i.e., one-, two- and three-vehicle cases) were investigated comprehensively in a closed-circuit wind tunnel using particle image velocimetry (PIV) for the typical urban vehicle speeds (i.e., 10, 30 and 50 km/h). In this three-dimensional vehicle wake, a pair of longitudinal vortices is characterized by counter-rotating and moving downstream at relatively low velocity than their surrounding flow. The flow structures of multiple studied model vehicles are dominated by the wake generated from the last studied model vehicle but the preceding studied model vehicle(s) also has/have some minor effects. Cross-sectional turbulence distribution is non-uniform in the far-wake region for all studied cases. The lowest turbulence occurs at the center part of the vehicle wake while high turbulence occurs at its two sides. As such, it may lead to considerable underestimation in turbulence magnitude if the measurement is only taken along the centerline of the vehicle wake.

  2. Volatility Modeling, Seasonality and Risk-Return Relationship in GARCH-in-Mean Framework: The Case of Indian Stock and Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Brajesh Kumar; Singh, Priyanka

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on an empirical study of volatility, risk premium and seasonality in risk-return relation of the Indian stock and commodity markets. This investigation is conducted by means of the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the mean model (GARCH-in-Mean) introduced by Engle et al. (1987). A systematic approach to model volatility in returns is presented. Volatility clustering and asymmetric nature is examined for Indian stock and commodity markets. The risk-r...

  3. Detailed assessment of structural characteristics of Turkish RC building stock for loss assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bal, I. E.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui; Gülay, F. Gülten

    2008-01-01

    Assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the building stock in the earthquake-prone Marmara region of Turkey is of growing importance since such information is needed for reliable estimation of the losses that possible future earthquakes are likely to induce. The outcome of such loss assessment

  4. A model for predicting livemass gain from stocking rate and annual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The relationship between livemass gain and stocking rate was established for young beef animals grazing kikuyu and Coastcross II pastures in each of five grazing seasons. The annual rainfall within these seasons ranges from 506mm to 990mm. Relationships between pasture production variables and annual rainfall are ...

  5. The development and validation of a thermal model for the cabin of a vehicle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, David; Pino, Francisco J.; Bordons, Carlos; Guerra, José J.

    2014-01-01

    Energy management in modern vehicles is a crucial issue, especially in the case of electric vehicles (EV) or hybrid vehicles (HV), in which different energy sources and loads must be considered for the operation of a vehicle. Air conditioning is an important load that must be thoroughly analysed because it can constitute a considerable percentage of the energy demand. In this paper, a simplified and dynamic thermal model for the cabin of a vehicle is proposed and validated. The developed model can be used for the design and testing of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system of a vehicle and for the study of its effects on the performance and fuel consumption of vehicles, such as EVs or HVs. The model is based on theoretical heat transfer, thermal inertia, and radiation treatment equations. The model results obtained from simulations are compared with the cabin air temperature of a vehicle under different conditions. This comparison demonstrates the accuracy between the simulation results and actual results. - Highlights: •A thermal model of a vehicle cabin with two thermal inertias is developed. •The model is validated with experimental data. •The simulation results and the experimental data fit

  6. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  7. Operations Assessment of Launch Vehicle Architectures using Activity Based Cost Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.; McCleskey, Carey

    2000-01-01

    The growing emphasis on affordability for space transportation systems requires the assessment of new space vehicles for all life cycle activities, from design and development, through manufacturing and operations. This paper addresses the operational assessment of launch vehicles, focusing on modeling the ground support requirements of a vehicle architecture, and estimating the resulting costs and flight rate. This paper proposes the use of Activity Based Costing (ABC) modeling for this assessment. The model uses expert knowledge to determine the activities, the activity times and the activity costs based on vehicle design characteristics. The approach provides several advantages to current approaches to vehicle architecture assessment including easier validation and allowing vehicle designers to understand the cost and cycle time drivers.

  8. Temperature response functions introduce high uncertainty in modelled carbon stocks in cold temperature regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portner, H.; Wolf, A.; Bugmann, H.

    2009-04-01

    function of Lloyd&Taylor therefore is an adequate choice to model the temperature dependency of soil organic matter decomposition. The Ticino catchment (300-2300m) in Southern Switzerland was used to study the sensitivity of long-term changes (100 years) in the prediction of carbon storage. The uncertainty in temperature response introduced into the model lead to high uncertainties in long-term soil carbon stocks. Interestingly, the uncertainty increased with decreasing temperature and increasing elevation. The carbon pools in lower elevations (mean annual temperature > 15 °C) turned over faster and little carbon accumulated in the soil. The carbon pools in higher elevations and hence in higher latitudes experiencing colder temperature (mean annual temperature < 15 °C) turned over slower and therefore accumulated more carbon over the simulation period. Therefore, the high elevation soils stored more carbon, but the prediction of the carbon pool size had a much higher uncertainty than the low elevation soils. We concluded that with our model, the predictions of the potential loss of soil carbon in cold temperature regimes is more uncertain than the carbon loss in warmer regions, both due to the higher soil carbon pools, but also due to the higher uncertainty found in our simulations.

  9. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL METHOD USED IN MEASURING AND ANALYZING COMPANIES LISTED IN PEFINDO25 AT INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE PERIOD 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis M HUTABARAT

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The industry in Indonesia is an interesting business to capitalize. In Indonesia many companies were established since it is profitable. The capital market serves as an economic pillar in most countries. Indonesia is a rich country, rich in many ways especially in natural resources. However, the industry has its ups and downs in the stock market. It is interesting to see the performance of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange.  This study aimed to measure and analyze companies listed in Pefindo25 at Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample used is 25 companies listed at Pefindo25 index. Based on the results of the study, it can conclude that after analyzing the companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model that based on Beta analysis, the companies have the type of stocks that are aggressive and defensive. With positive and negative return. The company with aggressive beta shows that the company tend to face higher risk, as JPFA find itself with positif return 15.47% expected return. And companies with defensive type of stocks tend to have positive return such as: FISH, STTP, AISA, APLN, and others since they are not sensitive to market changes. It is recommended for further research to look on this CAPM method in analyzing the stock investment.

  10. Exploration of dispatch model integrating wind generators and electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haque, A.N.M.M.; Ibn Saif, A.U.N.; Nguyen, P.H.; Torbaghan, S.S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel business model for the BRPs is analyzed. • Imbalance cost of wind generation is considered in the UC-ED model. • Smart charging of EVs is included into the UC-ED problem to mitigate the imbalance cost. • Effects of smart charging on generation cost, CO 2 emissions and total network load are assessed. - Abstract: In recent years, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the electricity generation mix has been expanding rapidly. However, limited predictability of the RES poses challenges for traditional scheduling and dispatching mechanisms based on unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED). This paper presents an advanced UC-ED model to incorporate wind generators as RES-based units alongside conventional centralized generators. In the proposed UC-ED model, an imbalance cost is introduced reflecting the wind generation uncertainty along with the marginal generation cost. The proposed UC-ED model aims to utilize the flexibility of fleets of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to optimally compensate for the wind generation uncertainty. A case study with 15 conventional units and 3 wind farms along with a fixed-sized PEV fleet demonstrates that shifting of PEV fleets charging at times of high wind availability realizes generation cost savings. Nevertheless, the operational cost saving incurred by controlled charging appears to diminish when dispatched wind energy becomes considerably larger than the charging energy of PEV fleets. Further analysis of the results reveals that the effectiveness of PEV control strategy in terms of CO 2 emission reduction is strongly coupled with generation mix and the proposed control strategy is favored in cases where less pollutant-based plants like nuclear and hydro power are profoundly dominant.

  11. Modeling and Simulation for Multi-Missions Space Exploration Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Max

    2011-01-01

    Asteroids and Near-Earth Objects [NEOs] are of great interest for future space missions. The Multi-Mission Space Exploration Vehicle [MMSEV] is being considered for future Near Earth Object missions and requires detailed planning and study of its Guidance, Navigation, and Control [GNC]. A possible mission of the MMSEV to a NEO would be to navigate the spacecraft to a stationary orbit with respect to the rotating asteroid and proceed to anchor into the surface of the asteroid with robotic arms. The Dynamics and Real-Time Simulation [DARTS] laboratory develops reusable models and simulations for the design and analysis of missions. In this paper, the development of guidance and anchoring models are presented together with their role in achieving mission objectives and relationships to other parts of the simulation. One important aspect of guidance is in developing methods to represent the evolution of kinematic frames related to the tasks to be achieved by the spacecraft and its robot arms. In this paper, we compare various types of mathematical interpolation methods for position and quaternion frames. Subsequent work will be on analyzing the spacecraft guidance system with different movements of the arms. With the analyzed data, the guidance system can be adjusted to minimize the errors in performing precision maneuvers.

  12. Nonlinear model predictive control of a passenger vehicle for automated lane changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, A.F.; Marquez-Ruiz, A.; Espinosa, J.J.

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC) for lane changes, based on a simplified Single Track Model (STM) of the vehicle. The STM includes the position of the vehicle in global coordinates as a state so that the position of the target lane can be specified to the MPC for

  13. Characteristic Model-Based Robust Model Predictive Control for Hypersonic Vehicles with Constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Designing robust control for hypersonic vehicles in reentry is difficult, due to the features of the vehicles including strong coupling, non-linearity, and multiple constraints. This paper proposed a characteristic model-based robust model predictive control (MPC for hypersonic vehicles with reentry constraints. First, the hypersonic vehicle is modeled by a characteristic model composed of a linear time-varying system and a lumped disturbance. Then, the identification data are regenerated by the accumulative sum idea in the gray theory, which weakens effects of the random noises and strengthens regularity of the identification data. Based on the regenerated data, the time-varying parameters and the disturbance are online estimated according to the gray identification. At last, the mixed H2/H∞ robust predictive control law is proposed based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs and receding horizon optimization techniques. Using active tackling system constraints of MPC, the input and state constraints are satisfied in the closed-loop control system. The validity of the proposed control is verified theoretically according to Lyapunov theory and illustrated by simulation results.

  14. Modelling domestic stock energy use and heat-related health risk : a GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mavrogianni, A.; Davies, M. [Univ. College London, London (United Kingdom). Bartlett School of Graduate Studies; Chalabi, Z.; Wilkinson, P. [London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medecine, London (United Kingdom); Kolokotroni, M. [Brunel Univ., London (United Kingdom). School of Engineering Design

    2009-07-01

    Approximately 8 per cent of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions produced in the United Kingdom are produced in London, one of the fastest growing cities worldwide. Based on the projected rates of population and economic growth, a 15 per cent increase of emissions is predicted. In addition to the national target to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, the Mayor of London Climate Change Action Plan set a target to reduce London's CO{sub 2} emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Significant carbon savings can be achieved in the building sector, particularly since 38 per cent of the total delivered energy in London is associated with domestic energy use. This paper demonstrated a systematic approach towards exploring the impact of urban built form and the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon on the levels of domestic energy consumption and heat-related health risk in London. It presented work in progress on the development of a GIS-based energy consumption model and heat vulnerability index of the Greater London Area domestic stock. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study areas with topdown energy statistics revealed that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic space heating demand. The health module can be used to determine environments prone to higher risk of heat stress by investigating urban texture factors. A newly developed epidemiological model will be feed into the health module to examine the influence on risk of heat-related mortality of local urban built form characteristics. The epidemiological model is based on multi-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave and non-heat wave days. 29 refs., 1 tab., 7 figs.

  15. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  16. A remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ballanti, Laurel; Thomas, Nathan; Nguyen, Dung; Holmquist, James R.; Simard, Marc; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

    2018-05-01

    Remote sensing based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, have the potential to play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas inventories and implementing climate mitigation policies. Our objective was to generate a single remote sensing model of tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon that represents nationally diverse tidal marshes within the conterminous United States (CONUS). We developed the first calibration-grade, national-scale dataset of aboveground tidal marsh biomass, species composition, and aboveground plant carbon content (%C) from six CONUS regions: Cape Cod, MA, Chesapeake Bay, MD, Everglades, FL, Mississippi Delta, LA, San Francisco Bay, CA, and Puget Sound, WA. Using the random forest machine learning algorithm, we tested whether imagery from multiple sensors, Sentinel-1 C-band synthetic aperture radar, Landsat, and the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), can improve model performance. The final model, driven by six Landsat vegetation indices and with the soil adjusted vegetation index as the most important (n = 409, RMSE = 310 g/m2, 10.3% normalized RMSE), successfully predicted biomass for a range of marsh plant functional types defined by height, leaf angle and growth form. Model results were improved by scaling field-measured biomass calibration data by NAIP-derived 30 m fraction green vegetation. With a mean plant carbon content of 44.1% (n = 1384, 95% C.I. = 43.99%-44.37%), we generated regional 30 m aboveground carbon density maps for estuarine and palustrine emergent tidal marshes as indicated by a modified NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program map. We applied a multivariate delta method to calculate uncertainties in regional carbon densities and stocks that considered standard error in map area, mean biomass and mean %C. Louisiana palustrine emergent marshes had the highest C density (2.67 ± 0.004 Mg/ha) of all regions, while San Francisco Bay brackish/saline marshes had the highest C density of all

  17. A novel improved fuzzy support vector machine based stock price trend forecast model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Shuheng; Li, Guohao; Bao, Yifan

    2018-01-01

    Application of fuzzy support vector machine in stock price forecast. Support vector machine is a new type of machine learning method proposed in 1990s. It can deal with classification and regression problems very successfully. Due to the excellent learning performance of support vector machine, the technology has become a hot research topic in the field of machine learning, and it has been successfully applied in many fields. However, as a new technology, there are many limitations to support...

  18. Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Modeling Tornado Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, M.; Doe, R. K.

    2017-12-01

    Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to assess storm damage is a useful research tool. Benefits include their ability to access remote or impassable areas post-storm, identify unknown damages and assist with more detailed site investigations and rescue efforts. Technological advancement of UAVs mean that they can capture high resolution images often at an affordable price. These images can be used to create 3D environments to better interpret and delineate damages from large areas that would have been difficult in ground surveys. This research presents the results of a rapid response site investigation of the 29 April 2017 Canton, Texas, USA, tornado using low cost UAVs. This was a multiple, high impact tornado event measuring EF4 at maximum. Rural farmland was chosen as a challenging location to test both equipment and methodology. Such locations provide multiple impacts at a variety of scales including structural and vegetation damage and even animal fatalities. The 3D impact models allow for a more comprehensive study prior to clean-up. The results show previously unseen damages and better quantify damage impacts at the local level. 3D digital track swaths were created allowing for a more accurate track width determination. These results demonstrate how effective the use of low cost UAVs can be for rapid response storm damage assessments, the high quality of data they can achieve, and how they can help us better visualize tornado site investigations.

  19. Modelling and analysis of the dynamics of a tilting three-wheeled vehicle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edelmann, Johannes; Plöchl, Manfred; Lugner, Peter

    2011-01-01

    To understand the handling behaviour of a three-wheeled tilting vehicle, models of the vehicle with different level of detail, corresponding to specific fields of investigation, have been developed. Then the proposed kinematics of the three-wheeler are assessed and optimized with respect to desired dynamic properties by applying a detailed multibody system model. The partially unstable nature of the motion of the vehicle suggests the application of an analytically derived, simplified model, to allow for focusing on stability aspects and steady-state handling properties. These investigations reveal the necessity of employing a steer-by-wire control system to support the driver by stabilizing the motion of the vehicle. Thus, an additional basic vehicle model is derived for control design, and an energy-efficient control strategy is presented. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the dynamic properties of the optimized kinematics and the control system, approved by successful test runs of a prototype.

  20. An overview of experimental results and dispersion modelling of nanoparticles in the wake of moving vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpentieri, Matteo; Kumar, Prashant; Robins, Alan

    2011-03-01

    Understanding the transformation of nanoparticles emitted from vehicles is essential for developing appropriate methods for treating fine scale particle dynamics in dispersion models. This article provides an overview of significant research work relevant to modelling the dispersion of pollutants, especially nanoparticles, in the wake of vehicles. Literature on vehicle wakes and nanoparticle dispersion is reviewed, taking into account field measurements, wind tunnel experiments and mathematical approaches. Field measurements and modelling studies highlighted the very short time scales associated with nanoparticle transformations in the first stages after the emission. These transformations strongly interact with the flow and turbulence fields immediately behind the vehicle, hence the need of characterising in detail the mixing processes in the vehicle wake. Very few studies have analysed this interaction and more research is needed to build a basis for model development. A possible approach is proposed and areas of further investigation identified. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Introducing a decomposition rate modifier in the Rothamsted Carbon Model to predict soil organic carbon stocks in saline soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setia, Raj; Smith, Pete; Marschner, Petra; Baldock, Jeff; Chittleborough, David; Smith, Jo

    2011-08-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) models such as the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) have been used to estimate SOC dynamics in soils over different time scales but, until recently, their ability to accurately predict SOC stocks/carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from salt-affected soils has not been assessed. Given the large extent of salt-affected soils (19% of the 20.8 billion ha of arable land on Earth), this may lead to miss-estimation of CO(2) release. Using soils from two salt-affected regions (one in Punjab, India and one in South Australia), an incubation study was carried out measuring CO(2) release over 120 days. The soils varied both in salinity (measured as electrical conductivity (EC) and calculated as osmotic potential using EC and water content) and sodicity (measured as sodium adsorption ratio, SAR). For soils from both regions, the osmotic potential had a significant positive relationship with CO(2)-C release, but no significant relationship was found between SAR and CO(2)-C release. The monthly cumulative CO(2)-C was simulated using RothC. RothC was modified to take into account reductions in plant inputs due to salinity. A subset of non-salt-affected soils was used to derive an equation for a "lab-effect" modifier to account for changes in decomposition under lab conditions and this modifier was significantly related with pH. Using a subset of salt-affected soils, a decomposition rate modifier (as a function of osmotic potential) was developed to match measured and modelled CO(2)-C release after correcting for the lab effect. Using this decomposition rate modifier, we found an agreement (R(2) = 0.92) between modelled and independently measured data for a set of soils from the incubation experiment. RothC, modified by including reduced plant inputs due to salinity and the salinity decomposition rate modifier, was used to predict SOC stocks of soils in a field in South Australia. The predictions clearly showed that SOC stocks are reduced in saline soils

  2. A comparative analysis of several vehicle emission models for road freight transportation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demir, E.; Bektas, T.; Laporte, G.

    2011-01-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in freight transportation requires using appropriate emission models in the planning process. This paper reviews and numerically compares several available freight transportation vehicle emission models and also considers their outputs in relations to field studies.

  3. Vehicle model for tyre-ground contact force evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Jiao, Lejia

    2013-01-01

    Economic development and growing integration process of world trade increases the demand for road transport. In 2008, the freight transportation by road in Sweden reached 42 million tonne-kilometers. Sweden has a tradition of long and heavy trucks combinations. Lots of larger vehicles, with a maximum length of 25.25 meters and weight of 60 tonnes, are used in national traffic. Heavier road transport and widely use of large vehicles contribute to the damages of pavement. According to a recent ...

  4. Tropical forest response to a drier future: Measurement and modeling of soil organic matter stocks and turnover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finstad, K. M.; Campbell, A.; Pett-Ridge, J.; Zhang, N.; McFarlane, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink and 29% of global soil carbon, but the stability of carbon in these ecosystems under a changing climate is unknown. Recent work suggests moisture may be more important than temperature in driving soil carbon storage and emissions in the tropics. However, data on belowground carbon cycling in the tropics is sparse, and the role of moisture on soil carbon dynamics is underrepresented in current land surface models limiting our ability to extrapolate from field experiments to the entire region. We measured radiocarbon (14C) and calculated turnover rates of organic matter from 37 soil profiles from the Neotropics including sites in Mexico, Brazil, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, and Peru. Our sites represent a large range of moisture, spanning 710 to 4200 mm of mean annual precipitation, and include Andisols, Oxisols, Inceptisols, and Ultisols. We found a large range in soil 14C profiles between sites, and in some locations, we also found a large spatial variation within a site. We compared measured soil C stocks and 14C profiles to data generated from the Community Land Model (CLM) v.4.5 and have begun to generate data from the ACME Land Model (ALM) v.1. We found that the CLM consistently overestimated carbon stocks and the mean age of soil carbon at the surface (upper 50 cm), and underestimated the mean age of deep soil carbon. Additionally, the CLM did not capture the variation in 14C and C stock profiles that exists between and within the sites across the Neotropics. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-736060.

  5. Scaling model for a speed-dependent vehicle noise spectrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Zambon

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Considering the well-known features of the noise emitted by moving sources, a number of vehicle characteristics such as speed, unladen mass, engine size, year of registration, power and fuel were recorded in a dedicated monitoring campaign performed in three different places, each characterized by different number of lanes and the presence of nearby reflective surfaces. A full database of 144 vehicles (cars was used to identify statistically relevant features. In order to compare the vehicle transit noise in different environmental condition, all 1/3-octave band spectra were normalized and analysed. Unsupervised clustering algorithms were employed to group together spectrum levels with similar profiles. Our results corroborate the well-known fact that speed is the most relevant characteristic to discriminate between different vehicle noise spectrum. In keeping with this fact, we present a new approach to predict analytically noise spectra for a given vehicle speed. A set of speed-dependent analytical functions are suggested in order to fit the normalized average spectrum profile at different speeds. This approach can be useful for predicting vehicle speed based purely on its noise spectrum pattern. The present work is complementary to the accurate analysis of noise sources based on the beamforming technique.

  6. Emergency oil stocks in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: What explains variation in convergence towards the EU model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosun, Jale

    2012-01-01

    The accumulation and maintenance of emergency oil stocks in accordance with the requirements of the European Union involve changes in legislation, the strengthening of national stockholding institutions and the attraction of investment. Despite these challenges, almost all Southeastern and Eastern European countries have begun to align their oil stockholding arrangements with the European model, albeit there is variation in the actual degree of convergence. The greatest convergence is observed for Croatia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. In marked contrast, the oil stockholding system of Moldova continues to be different from the European model. This study provides an overview of the Southeastern and Eastern European countries’ progress in approximating the European requirements for emergency oil stocks and identifies the factors responsible for the cross-country variation. The differences observed stem from the extent to which the countries are legally obliged to comply with the European provisions, their membership aspirations, levels of energy-related investment from the European Union, and dependence on oil imports. - Highlights: ► Southeastern and Eastern European countries are approaching the European stockholding model. ► Croatia and Macedonia demonstrate the highest degree of convergence. ► Moldova displays the greatest distance to the European model. ► Variation in convergence is determined by legal obligation, membership aspiration, investment and dependence on oil.

  7. Activity-dependent branching ratios in stocks, solar x-ray flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Elliot; Shreim, Amer; Paczuski, Maya

    2010-01-01

    We define an activity-dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series Xt . The branching ratio bx is defined as bx=E[ξx/x] . The random variable ξx is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to x , so ξx={Xt+1∣Xt=x} . If bx>1 , the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to x , while if bxmarket hypothesis.” For stock volumes, solar x-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, bx is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power-law behavior. For solar x-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where bx≃1 , which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for Xt and for ξx . For the BTW model the distribution of ξx is Gaussian, for x sufficiently larger than 1, and its variance grows linearly with x . Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where bx is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model—supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality.

  8. Resolving model parameter values from carbon and nitrogen stock measurements in a wide range of tropical mature forests using nonlinear inversion and regression trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuguang Liua; Pamela Anderson; Guoyi Zhoud; Boone Kauffman; Flint Hughes; David Schimel; Vicente Watson; Joseph. Tosi

    2008-01-01

    Objectively assessing the performance of a model and deriving model parameter values from observations are critical and challenging in landscape to regional modeling. In this paper, we applied a nonlinear inversion technique to calibrate the ecosystem model CENTURY against carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stock measurements collected from 39 mature tropical forest sites in...

  9. Option Pricing with a Levy-Type Stochastic Dynamic Model for Stock Price Process Under Semi-Markovian Structural Perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-30

    models ( Beckers 1980, Dupire 1997), the volatility depends on time and stock price through a deterministic func- tional. In both cases, in addition to...T1 ≤ T2 ≤ · · · ≤ Tn−1 are the regime switch- ing times caused by the semi-Markov process prior to t. For notational convenience, we denote θ−1 = θ0...of interest are currently being investigated: (1) an evaluation of the effects of the backward recurrence time, the sojourn time distribution and the

  10. An extended two-lane car-following model accounting for inter-vehicle communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ou, Hui; Tang, Tie-Qiao

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel car-following model with inter-vehicle communication to explore each vehicle's movement in a two-lane traffic system when an incident occurs on a lane. The numerical results show that the proposed model can perfectly describe each vehicle's motion when an incident occurs, i.e., no collision occurs while the classical full velocity difference (FVD) model produces collision on each lane, which shows the proposed model is more reasonable. The above results can help drivers to reasonably adjust their driving behaviors when an incident occurs in a two-lane traffic system.

  11. On the required complexity of vehicle dynamic models for use in simulation-based highway design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Alexander; Brennan, Sean

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents the results of a comprehensive project whose goal is to identify roadway design practices that maximize the margin of safety between the friction supply and friction demand. This study is motivated by the concern for increased accident rates on curves with steep downgrades, geometries that contain features that interact in all three dimensions - planar curves, grade, and superelevation. This complexity makes the prediction of vehicle skidding quite difficult, particularly for simple simulation models that have historically been used for road geometry design guidance. To obtain estimates of friction margin, this study considers a range of vehicle models, including: a point-mass model used by the American Association of State Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design policy, a steady-state "bicycle model" formulation that considers only per-axle forces, a transient formulation of the bicycle model commonly used in vehicle stability control systems, and finally, a full multi-body simulation (CarSim and TruckSim) regularly used in the automotive industry for high-fidelity vehicle behavior prediction. The presence of skidding--the friction demand exceeding supply--was calculated for each model considering a wide range of vehicles and road situations. The results indicate that the most complicated vehicle models are generally unnecessary for predicting skidding events. However, there are specific maneuvers, namely braking events within lane changes and curves, which consistently predict the worst-case friction margins across all models. This suggests that any vehicle model used for roadway safety analysis should include the effects of combined cornering and braking. The point-mass model typically used by highway design professionals may not be appropriate to predict vehicle behavior on high-speed curves during braking in low-friction situations. However, engineers can use the results of this study to help select the appropriate vehicle dynamic

  12. Development of Matlab Simulink model for dynamics analysis of passive suspension system for lightweight vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.

    2017-10-01

    In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.

  13. Fuzzy-Skyhook Control for Active Suspension Systems Applied to a Full Vehicle Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aref M.A. Soliman

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, most modern vehicles are equipped with controlled suspension systems for improving the vehicle ride comfort. Therefore, this paper is concerned with a theoretical study for the ride comfort performance of the vehicle. The theoretical investigation includes a suggestion of an active suspension system controller using fuzzy-skyhook control theory, which offers new opportunities for the improvement of vehicle ride performance. The ride comfort of the active suspension system has been evaluated using a 7 degree of freedom full vehicle mathematical model. The simulation results are presented in the time and frequency domain, also in terms of RMS values, and it’s shown that the proposed active suspension system with fuzzy-skyhook control improved the vehicle ride quality in terms of body acceleration, suspension working space and dynamic tyre load in comparison with the passive and skyhook suspension systems.

  14. Design, Modeling And Control Of Steering And Braking For An Urban Electric Vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Maciua, Dragos

    1996-01-01

    This report describes research which involved the design modification, modeling and control of automatic steering and braking systems for an urban electric vehicle. The vehicle is equipped with four-wheel independent drive, four-wheel independent braking and four-wheel steering. Control algorithms were developed for steering and braking. Simulation results show the feasibility of the algorithms.

  15. Investigation Into The Model Of The Vehicle System For Speed Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurij Grigorovič

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a rectilinear motion of a car modelled applyingsoftware package “Matlab/Simulink“ where two vehicles aremoving simultaneously one after the other. The parameters ofeach vehicle have been identified separately assessing a driver,road and environment.

  16. A time-use model for the automated vehicle-era

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pudāne, Baiba; Molin, Eric J.E.; Arentze, Theo A.; Maknoon, Yousef; Chorus, Caspar G.

    2018-01-01

    Automated Vehicles (AVs) offer their users a possibility to perform new non-driving activities while being on the way. The effects of this opportunity on travel choices and travel demand have mostly been conceptualised and modelled via a reduced penalty associated with (in-vehicle) travel time. This

  17. A Time-use Model for the Automated Vehicle-era

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pudane, B.; Molin, E.J.E.; Arentze, TA; Maknoon, M.Y.; Chorus, C.G.

    2018-01-01

    Automated Vehicles (AVs) offer their users a possibility to perform new non-driving activities while being on the way. The effects of this opportunity on travel choices and travel demand have mostly been conceptualised and modelled via a reduced penalty associated with (in-vehicle) travel time. This

  18. Incorporating vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saidi Siuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to incorporate vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models. Separate models were estimated for acceleration and deceleration responses to account for vehicle mix via both movement state and vehicle type. For each model, three sub-models were developed for different pairs of following vehicles including “automobile following automobile,” “automobile following truck,” and “truck following automobile.” The estimated model parameters were then validated against other data from a similar region and roadway. The results indicated that drivers' behaviors were significantly different among the different pairs of following vehicles. Also the magnitude of the estimated parameters depends on the type of vehicle being driven and/or followed. These results demonstrated the need to use separate models depending on movement state and vehicle type. The differences in parameter estimates confirmed in this paper highlight traffic safety and operational issues of mixed traffic operation on a single lane. The findings of this paper can assist transportation professionals to improve traffic simulation models used to evaluate the impact of different strategies on ameliorate safety and performance of highways. In addition, driver response time lag estimates can be used in roadway design to calculate important design parameters such as stopping sight distance on horizontal and vertical curves for both automobiles and trucks.

  19. Comparative study on DuPont analysis and DEA models for measuring stock performance using financial ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Shaari, Siti Nabilah Mohd; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-11-01

    Determining stock performance using financial ratio is challenging for many investors and researchers. Financial ratio can indicate the strengths and weaknesses of a company's stock performance. There are five categories of financial ratios namely liquidity, efficiency, leverage, profitability and market ratios. It is important to interpret the ratio correctly for proper financial decision making. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and DuPont analysis Models. The study is conducted in 2015 involving 116 consumer products companies listed in Bursa Malaysia. The estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis computes the efficiency scores and ranks the companies accordingly. The Alirezaee and Afsharian's method of analysis based Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) where Constant Return to Scale (CRS) is employed. The DuPont analysis is a traditional tool for measuring the operating performance of companies. In this study, DuPont analysis is used to evaluate three different aspects such as profitability, efficiency of assets utilization and financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is also calculated in DuPont analysis. This study finds that both analysis models provide different rankings of the selected samples. Hypothesis testing based on Pearson's correlation, indicates that there is no correlation between rankings produced by DEA and DuPont analysis. The DEA ranking model proposed by Alirezaee and Asharian is unstable. The method cannot provide complete ranking because the values of Balance Index is equal and zero.

  20. Agent-based Modeling Simulation Analysis on the Regulation of Institutional Investor's Encroachment Behavior in Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study explores the effective regulation of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market. Given the theoretical and practical importance, the present study examines the effect of the self-adaptive regulation strategy (adjusting the regulation factors such as punishment and the probability of investigating successfully in time for the sake of the small & medium-sized investor protection.Design/methodology/approach: This study was carried out through game theory and agent-based modeling simulation. Firstly, a dynamic game model was built to search the core factors of regulation and the equilibrium paths. Secondly, an agent-based modeling simulation model was built in Swarm to extend the game model. Finally, a simulation experiment (using virtual parameter values was performed to examine the effect of regulation strategy obtained form game model.Findings: The results of this study showed that the core factors of avoiding the institutional investor's encroachment behavior are the punishment and the probability of investigating successfully of the regulator. The core factors embody as the self-adaptability and the capability of regulator. If the regulator can adjust the regulation factors in time, the illegal behaviors will be avoided effectively.Research limitations/implications: The simulation experiment in this paper was performed with virtual parameter values. Although the results of experiment showed the effect of self-adaptive regulation, there are still some differences between simulation experiment and real market situation.Originality/value: The purpose of this study is to investigate an effective regulation strategy of institutional investor's encroachment behavior in stock market in order to maintain market order and protect the benefits of investors. Base on the game model and simulation model, a simulation experiment was preformed and the result showed that the self-adaptive regulation would be effective

  1. Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Chadburn

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France. We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI, the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our

  2. Thermal modeling of secondary lithium batteries for electric vehicle/hybrid electric vehicle applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hallaj, Said; Selman, J. R.

    A major obstacle to the development of commercially successful electric vehicles (EV) or hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) is the lack of a suitably sized battery. Lithium ion batteries are viewed as the solution if only they could be "scaled-up safely", i.e. if thermal management problems could be overcome so the batteries could be designed and manufactured in much larger sizes than the commercially available near-2-Ah cells. Here, we review a novel thermal management system using phase-change material (PCM). A prototype of this PCM-based system is presently being manufactured. A PCM-based system has never been tested before with lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and battery packs, although its mode of operation is exceptionally well suited for the cell chemistry of the most common commercially available Li-ion batteries. The thermal management system described here is intended specifically for EV/HEV applications. It has a high potential for providing effective thermal management without introducing moving components. Thereby, the performance of EV/HEV batteries may be improved without complicating the system design and incurring major additional cost, as is the case with "active" cooling systems requiring air or liquid circulation.

  3. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  4. 2001 Joint ADVISOR/PSAT Vehicle Systems Modeling User's Conference Proceedings (CD)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markel, T.

    2001-01-01

    The 2001 Joint ADVISOR/PSAT Vehicle Systems Modeling User Conference provided an opportunity for engineers in the automotive industry and the research environment to share their experiences in vehicle systems modeling using ADVISOR and PSAT. ADVISOR and PSAT are vehicle systems modeling tools developed and supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory respectively with the financial support of the US Department of Energy. During this conference peers presented the results of studies using the simulation tools and improvements that they have made or would like to see in the simulation tools. Focus areas of the presentations included Control Strategy, Model Validation, Optimization and Co-Simulation, Model Development, Applications, and Fuel Cell Vehicle Systems Analysis. Attendees were offered the opportunity to give feedback on future model development plans

  5. 2001 Joint ADVISOR/PSAT Vehicle Systems Modeling User's Conference Proceedings (CD)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markel, T.

    2001-08-01

    The 2001 Joint ADVISOR/PSAT Vehicle Systems Modeling User Conference provided an opportunity for engineers in the automotive industry and the research environment to share their experiences in vehicle systems modeling using ADVISOR and PSAT. ADVISOR and PSAT are vehicle systems modeling tools developed and supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory respectively with the financial support of the US Department of Energy. During this conference peers presented the results of studies using the simulation tools and improvements that they have made or would like to see in the simulation tools. Focus areas of the presentations included Control Strategy, Model Validation, Optimization and Co-Simulation, Model Development, Applications, and Fuel Cell Vehicle Systems Analysis. Attendees were offered the opportunity to give feedback on future model development plans.

  6. MODELING DRIVER BEHAVIOR IN THE DRIVING OF THEIR MOTOR VEHICLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Skrypnikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article holds the gradual formation of images and actions of the driver. As outlined the author's arguments based on the following assumptions: We consider the motion of the mass, mass-produced currently by the domestic industry of automobiles; considered the motion of single cars as the most common and most dangerous cases, allowing to evaluate the influence of parameters on the road driving mode "pure"; drivers tend to reduce travel times and therefore move with the maximum possible speed; drivers choose speed, visually estimating lying in front of part of the way and given the speed at the time of this evaluation; driver behavior, ceteris paribus determined the influence of visibility limitations and conditions visual perception; considered the motion on the ascent and descent, but the determining factor is the direction of descent. Set of operations, branches off the driver, can be represented as a multi-level system comprising three main groups of psycho-physiological processes, activities analyzers (perception of information; the work of the central nervous system (processing and storage; effective activity (responses to the implementation of the decision. On the basis of the received information in human consciousness formed images of the environment, the totality of which is an information model of the object. Comparing it with the standards (memory engrams, the driver generates the mo st appropriate in the circumstances set of actions. Implementation of the decision is the final stage of human response to the external environment and is expressed in the change of the degree of use of traction engine or braking force; change the steering angle as that does not affect the speed of motion, the algorithm of the driver is not taken into account. Analysis of the schemes of algorithms allows to obtain quantitative characteristics of the vehicle: stereotyped figures, logical complexity.

  7. Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2014-09-01

    The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

  8. A local-community-level, physically-based model of end-use energy consumption by Australian housing stock

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Zhengen; Paevere, Phillip; McNamara, Cheryl

    2012-01-01

    We developed a physics based bottom-up model to estimate annual housing stock energy consumption at a local community level (Census Collection District—CCD) with an hourly resolution. Total energy consumption, including space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting and other household appliances, was simulated by considering building construction and materials, equipment and appliances, local climates and occupancy patterns. The model was used to analyse energy use by private dwellings in more than five thousand CCDs in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The predicted results focus on electricity consumption (natural gas and other fuel sources were excluded as the data are not available) and track the actual electricity consumption at CCD level with an error of 9.2% when summed to state level. For NSW and Victoria 2006, the predicted state electricity consumption is close to the published model (within 6%) and statistical data (within 10%). A key feature of the model is that it can be used to predict hourly electricity consumption and peak demand at fine geographic scales, which is important for grid planning and designing local energy efficiency or demand response strategies. - Highlights: ► We developed a physics-based model to estimate housing stock energy consumption. ► House type and vintage, family type and occupancy time were considered. ► The model results are close to actual energy consumption at local community level. ► Its’ results agree well with the published model and statistical data at state level. ► It shows the model could provide from hourly to annual residential energy consumption.

  9. Modeling Of In-Vehicle Human Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaozhen; Frey, H. Christopher

    2012-01-01

    A method for estimating in-vehicle PM2.5 exposure as part of a scenario-based population simulation model is developed and assessed. In existing models, such as the Stochastic Exposure and Dose Simulation model for Particulate Matter (SHEDS-PM), in-vehicle exposure is estimated using linear regression based on area-wide ambient PM2.5 concentration. An alternative modeling approach is explored based on estimation of near-road PM2.5 concentration and an in-vehicle mass balance. Near-road PM2.5 concentration is estimated using a dispersion model and fixed site monitor (FSM) data. In-vehicle concentration is estimated based on air exchange rate and filter efficiency. In-vehicle concentration varies with road type, traffic flow, windspeed, stability class, and ventilation. Average in-vehicle exposure is estimated to contribute 10 to 20 percent of average daily exposure. The contribution of in-vehicle exposure to total daily exposure can be higher for some individuals. Recommendations are made for updating exposure models and implementation of the alternative approach. PMID:23101000

  10. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Switched Reluctance Motor in a Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Siavash Sadeghi; Mojtaba Mirsalim; Arash Hassanpour Isfahani

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic behavior analysis of electric motors is required in order to accuratelyevaluate the performance, energy consumption and pollution level of hybrid electricvehicles. Simulation tools for hybrid electric vehicles are divided into steady state anddynamic models. Tools with steady-state models are useful for system-level analysiswhereas tools that utilize dynamic models give in-depth information about the behavior ofsublevel components. For the accurate prediction of hybrid electric vehicl...

  11. Motor Vehicle Emission Modeling and Software Simulation Computing for Roundabout in Urban City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haiwei Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In urban road traffic systems, roundabout is considered as one of the core traffic bottlenecks, which are also a core impact of vehicle emission and city environment. In this paper, we proposed a transport control and management method for solving traffic jam and reducing emission in roundabout. The platform of motor vehicle testing system and VSP-based emission model was established firstly. By using the topology chart of the roundabout and microsimulation software, we calculated the instantaneous emission rates of different vehicle and total vehicle emissions. We argued that Integration-Model, combing traffic simulation and vehicle emission, can be performed to calculate the instantaneous emission rates of different vehicle and total vehicle emissions at the roundabout. By contrasting the exhaust emissions result between no signal control and signal control in this area at the rush hour, it draws a conclusion that setting the optimizing signal control can effectively reduce the regional vehicle emission. The proposed approach has been submitted to a simulation and experiment that involved an environmental assessment in Satellite Square, a roundabout in medium city located in China. It has been verified that setting signal control with knowledge engineering and Integration-Model is a practical way for solving the traffic jams and environmental pollution.

  12. Capital Asset Pricing Model Testing at Warsaw Stock Exchange: Are Family Businesses the Remedy for Economic Recessions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Lipiec

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we test the capital asset pricing model (CAPM on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE by measuring the performance of two portfolios composed of construction firms: family-controlled and nonfamily controlled. These portfolios were selected from the WIG-Construction (WIG—Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy—Warsaw Stock Exchange Index. The performance of both portfolios was measured in the period from 2006 to 2012 with respect to three sub-periods: (1 pre-crisis period: 2006–2007; (2 crisis period: 2008–2009; and (3 post-crisis period: 2010–2012. This division was constructed in this way to find out how family firms performed in crisis times in relation to nonfamily firms. In addition, the construction portfolio was chosen due to its sensitivity to recessions. When an economy faces a downturn, construction firms are among the first to be exposed to risk. The performance was measured by using the capital asset pricing model with statistical inference. We find that public family firms significantly outperformed non-family peers in the crisis times.

  13. Discrete Optimization Model for Vehicle Routing Problem with Scheduling Side Cosntraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juliandri, Dedy; Mawengkang, Herman; Bu'ulolo, F.

    2018-01-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important element of many logistic systems which involve routing and scheduling of vehicles from a depot to a set of customers node. This is a hard combinatorial optimization problem with the objective to find an optimal set of routes used by a fleet of vehicles to serve the demands a set of customers It is required that these vehicles return to the depot after serving customers’ demand. The problem incorporates time windows, fleet and driver scheduling, pick-up and delivery in the planning horizon. The goal is to determine the scheduling of fleet and driver and routing policies of the vehicles. The objective is to minimize the overall costs of all routes over the planning horizon. We model the problem as a linear mixed integer program. We develop a combination of heuristics and exact method for solving the model.

  14. Real-time model for simulating a tracked vehicle on deformable soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Meywerk

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulation is one possibility to gain insight into the behaviour of tracked vehicles on deformable soils. A lot of publications are known on this topic, but most of the simulations described there cannot be run in real-time. The ability to run a simulation in real-time is necessary for driving simulators. This article describes an approach for real-time simulation of a tracked vehicle on deformable soils. The components of the real-time model are as follows: a conventional wheeled vehicle simulated in the Multi Body System software TRUCKSim, a geometric description of landscape, a track model and an interaction model between track and deformable soils based on Bekker theory and Janosi–Hanamoto, on one hand, and between track and vehicle wheels, on the other hand. Landscape, track model, soil model and the interaction are implemented in MATLAB/Simulink. The details of the real-time model are described in this article, and a detailed description of the Multi Body System part is omitted. Simulations with the real-time model are compared to measurements and to a detailed Multi Body System–finite element method model of a tracked vehicle. An application of the real-time model in a driving simulator is presented, in which 13 drivers assess the comfort of a passive and an active suspension of a tracked vehicle.

  15. Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

    2017-10-01

    The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  16. BACKTESTING VALUE AT RISK MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF STRUCTURAL BREAK ON THE ROMANIAN AND HUNGARIAN STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cociuba Mihail Ioan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Transactions on financial markets are associated with variability, risk and uncertainty, so quantification of risk has a great importance. Beside Standard Deviation and Variance, one of the most involved risk measure methods is Value-at-Risk (VaR. In this study, we use daily return for the stock index from Romania (BET and Hungary (BUX for the 01:2007 - 02:2013 periods in order to test the influence of structural breaks on the VaR metrics. We find out that the ARCH phenomenon is present, so we use the GARCH family models. The structural breaks in the series mean and variance are identified using the Zivot-Andrews test and PELT algorithm, the structural break dates are captured using dummy variables in the GARCH models (struc-GARCH, the selection of models is done using the informational criterion [Akaike, Schwarz, Log-likelihood]. The results of present research show a greater volatility associated with a higher risk level in case of Romanian stock index. The stock market indices return follows a negatively skewed and leptokurtic distributions forms either in two cases, so is unspecific a normal distribution. After applying above mentioned tests we can conclude that there are eight structural breaks in BET index returns variance and there are five breakpoints in case of BUX. The breakpoints in mean show very closely results in time, for BET in February 2009 and for BUX March 2009. Backtesting VaR models are done by measuring the number of times the loss is greater than the VaR forecast. The first step for unconditional coverage testing consists in comparing of fraction of VaR violation for a particular risk model. The independence testing it is very important tool in back-testing, because it is not the same that the VaR violations are differentiated in time or there are clustered in some certain period. By checking the independence test, we have the possibility to discover and reject the model with clustered hit sequence. Testing the influence

  17. Sustainable Mobility: Using a Global Energy Model to Inform Vehicle Technology Choices in a Decarbonized Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Wallington

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of CO2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.

  18. Influence of wheel-rail contact modelling on vehicle dynamic simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgelman, Nico; Sichani, Matin Sh.; Enblom, Roger; Berg, Mats; Li, Zili; Dollevoet, Rolf

    2015-08-01

    This paper presents a comparison of four models of rolling contact used for online contact force evaluation in rail vehicle dynamics. Until now only a few wheel-rail contact models have been used for online simulation in multibody software (MBS). Many more models exist and their behaviour has been studied offline, but a comparative study of the mutual influence between the calculation of the creep forces and the simulated vehicle dynamics seems to be missing. Such a comparison would help researchers with the assessment of accuracy and calculation time. The contact methods investigated in this paper are FASTSIM, Linder, Kik-Piotrowski and Stripes. They are compared through a coupling between an MBS for the vehicle simulation and Matlab for the contact models. This way the influence of the creep force calculation on the vehicle simulation is investigated. More specifically this study focuses on the influence of the contact model on the simulation of the hunting motion and on the curving behaviour.

  19. The Use of Mixed Effects Models for Obtaining Low-Cost Ecosystem Carbon Stock Estimates in Mangroves of the Asia-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukoski, J. J.; Broadhead, J. S.; Donato, D.; Murdiyarso, D.; Gregoire, T. G.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves provide extensive ecosystem services that support both local livelihoods and international environmental goals, including coastal protection, water filtration, biodiversity conservation and the sequestration of carbon (C). While voluntary C market projects that seek to preserve and enhance forest C stocks offer a potential means of generating finance for mangrove conservation, their implementation faces barriers due to the high costs of quantifying C stocks through measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) activities. To streamline MRV activities in mangrove C forestry projects, we develop predictive models for (i) biomass-based C stocks, and (ii) soil-based C stocks for the mangroves of the Asia-Pacific. We use linear mixed effect models to account for spatial correlation in modeling the expected C as a function of stand attributes. The most parsimonious biomass model predicts total biomass C stocks as a function of both basal area and the interaction between latitude and basal area, whereas the most parsimonious soil C model predicts soil C stocks as a function of the logarithmic transformations of both latitude and basal area. Random effects are specified by site for both models, and are found to explain a substantial proportion of variance within the estimation datasets. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the biomass C model is approximated at 24.6 Mg/ha (18.4% of mean biomass C in the dataset), whereas the RMSE of the soil C model is estimated at 4.9 mg C/cm 3 (14.1% of mean soil C). A substantial proportion of the variation in soil C, however, is explained by the random effects and thus the use of the SOC model may be most valuable for sites in which field measurements of soil C exist.

  20. An overview of experimental results and dispersion modelling of nanoparticles in the wake of moving vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carpentieri, Matteo; Kumar, Prashant; Robins, Alan

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the transformation of nanoparticles emitted from vehicles is essential for developing appropriate methods for treating fine scale particle dynamics in dispersion models. This article provides an overview of significant research work relevant to modelling the dispersion of pollutants, especially nanoparticles, in the wake of vehicles. Literature on vehicle wakes and nanoparticle dispersion is reviewed, taking into account field measurements, wind tunnel experiments and mathematical approaches. Field measurements and modelling studies highlighted the very short time scales associated with nanoparticle transformations in the first stages after the emission. These transformations strongly interact with the flow and turbulence fields immediately behind the vehicle, hence the need of characterising in detail the mixing processes in the vehicle wake. Very few studies have analysed this interaction and more research is needed to build a basis for model development. A possible approach is proposed and areas of further investigation identified. - Research highlights: → Nanoparticle emissions experience very short transformation time scales. → Vehicle wakes need to be characterised to analyse nanoparticle dispersion. → Fast response measurements of nanoparticle evolution in vehicle wakes are very rare. → Wind tunnel methodologies can be further improved to include nanoparticle dynamics. → A simple mathematical approach has been proposed for future development. - The transformation of nanoparticles and the flow characteristics in both the near and far wake regions must be understood in order to develop mathematical models.

  1. The Prediction Performance of Asset Pricing Models and Their Capability of Capturing the Effects of Economic Crises: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erol Muzır

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is prepared to test the common opinion that the multifactor asset pricing models produce superior predictions as compared to the single factor models and to evaluate the performance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. For this purpose, the monthly return data from January 1996 and December 2004 of the stocks of 45 firms listed at Istanbul Stock Exchange were used. Our factor analysis results show that 68,3 % of the return variation can be explained by five factors. Although the APT model has generated a low coefficient of determination, 28,3 %, it proves to be more competent in explaining stock return changes when compared to CAPM which has an inferior explanation power, 5,4 %. Furthermore, we have observed that APT is more robust also in capturing the effects of any economic crisis on return variations.

  2. Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report

  3. Inventory Model for Non – Instantaneous Deteriorating Items, Stock Dependent Demand, Partial Backlogging, and Inflation over a Finite Time Horizon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Kumar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ model of two-warehouse deals with non-instantaneous deteriorating items, the demand rate considered as stock dependent and model affected by inflation under the pattern of time value of money over a finite planning horizon. Shortages are allowed and partially backordered depending on the waiting time for the next replenishment. The main objective of this work is to minimize the total inventory cost and finding the optimal interval and the optimal order quantity. An algorithm is designed to find the optimum solution of the proposed model. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the results. Also, the effect of changes in the different parameters on the optimal total cost is graphically presented.

  4. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  5. Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

    2017-11-01

    Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

  6. Modelling vertical uniform contact stress of heavy vehicle tyres

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steenkamp, Anton J

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available over the selected operating range of 25 kN to 45 kN which is the typical load range for heavy vehicle tyres due to legal axle load limits. The polynomial formulas require only the tyre inflation pressure and vertical tyre load as inputs, in order...

  7. Model identification of a flapping wing micro aerial vehicle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aguiar Vieira Caetano, J.V.

    2016-01-01

    Different flapping wing micro aerial vehicles (FWMAV) have been developed for academic (Harvard’s RoboBee), military (Israel Aerospace Industries’ Butterfly) and technology demonstration (Aerovironment’s NanoHummingBird) purposes. Among these, theDelFly II is recognized as one of themost successful

  8. Modelling the Aggregated Dynamic Response of Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziras, Charalampos; Hu, Junjie; You, Shi

    2017-01-01

    There is an increasing interest in the use of electric vehicles (EVs) for providing fast frequency reserves due to their large installed capacity and their very fast response. Most works focus on scheduling and optimization and usually neglect their aggregated dynamic response, which...

  9. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onut, S; Kamber, M R; Altay, G

    2014-01-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time

  10. A heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing model for solving the LPG distribution problem: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onut, S.; Kamber, M. R.; Altay, G.

    2014-03-01

    Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) is an important management problem in the field of distribution and logistics. In VRPs, routes from a distribution point to geographically distributed points are designed with minimum cost and considering customer demands. All points should be visited only once and by one vehicle in one route. Total demand in one route should not exceed the capacity of the vehicle that assigned to that route. VRPs are varied due to real life constraints related to vehicle types, number of depots, transportation conditions and time periods, etc. Heterogeneous fleet vehicle routing problem is a kind of VRP that vehicles have different capacity and costs. There are two types of vehicles in our problem. In this study, it is used the real world data and obtained from a company that operates in LPG sector in Turkey. An optimization model is established for planning daily routes and assigned vehicles. The model is solved by GAMS and optimal solution is found in a reasonable time.

  11. Lightweight Vehicle and Driver’s Whole-Body Models for Vibration Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    MdSah, Jamali; Taha, Zahari; Azwan Ismail, Khairul

    2018-03-01

    Vehicle vibration is a main factor for driving fatigue, discomfort and health problems. The ability to simulate the vibration characteristics in the vehicle and its effects on driver’s whole-body vibration will give significant advantages to designers especially on the vehicle development time and cost. However, it is difficult to achieve optimal condition of ride comfort and handling when using passive suspension system. This paper presents mathematical equations that can be used to describe the vibration characteristics of a lightweight electric vehicle that had been developed. The vehicle’s model was combined with the lumped-parameter model of driver to determine the whole-body vibration level when the vehicle is passing over a road hump using Matlab Simulink. The models were simulated at a constant speed and the results were compared with the experimental data. The simulated vibration level at the vehicle floor and seat were almost similar to the experimental vibration results. The suspension systems that are being used for the solar vehicle are able to reduce the vibration level due to the road hump. The models can be used to simulate and choose the optimal parameters for the suspensions.

  12. Cellular automata model for traffic flow at intersections in internet of vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Han-Tao; Liu, Xin-Ru; Chen, Xiao-Xu; Lu, Jian-Cheng

    2018-03-01

    Considering the effect of the front vehicle's speed, the influence of the brake light and the conflict of the traffic flow, we established a cellular automata model called CE-NS for traffic flow at the intersection in the non-vehicle networking environment. According to the information interaction of Internet of Vehicles (IoV), introducing parameters describing the congestion and the accurate speed of the front vehicle into the CE-NS model, we improved the rules of acceleration, deceleration and conflict, and finally established a cellular automata model for traffic flow at intersections of IoV. The relationship between traffic parameters such as vehicle speed, flow and average travel time is obtained by numerical simulation of two models. Based on this, we compared the traffic situation of the non-vehicle networking environment with conditions of IoV environment, and analyzed the influence of the different degree of IoV on the traffic flow. The results show that the traffic speed is increased, the travel time is reduced, the flux of intersections is increased and the traffic flow is more smoothly under IoV environment. After the vehicle which achieves IoV reaches a certain proportion, the operation effect of the traffic flow begins to improve obviously.

  13. Shore-based Path Planning for Marine Vehicles Using a Model of Ocean Currents

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop path planning methods that incorporate an approximate model of ocean currents in path planning for a range of autonomous marine vehicles such as surface...

  14. Hybrid Computational Model for High-Altitude Aeroassist Vehicles, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed effort addresses a need for accurate computational models to support aeroassist and entry vehicle system design over a broad range of flight conditions...

  15. Vehicles' Sample Generation and Realization in Car-Following Mathematical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Algimantas Danilevičius

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The object of the article is the adjustment of car-following mathematical models according to collected traffic data. Here the problem of ineffectively burdened road section is solved by adjusting the speed of vehicles in order to reduce the distance between the cars to a safe distance. The paper analyzes the car-following models to measure the interaction between vehicles in the same lane. Experimental data processed in Matlab and traffic distribution histograms are created using the most appropriate distribution curve. Distribution curve is used to compile congestion scenario of road section. Applicable model uses fundamental diagrams, which are created from the kind of traffic flow measurements. The mathematical model allows to choose the optimal vehicle speed while maintaining safe distance between vehicles, and to make recommendations to improve the traffic as the process.

  16. Hybrid Computational Model for High-Altitude Aeroassist Vehicles, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A hybrid continuum/noncontinuum computational model will be developed for analyzing the aerodynamics and heating on aeroassist vehicles. Unique features of this...

  17. Towards a detailed on-road vehicle emissions inventory: The use of a travel demand model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, Mogesh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available of Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) for every model grid cell. This has proven difficult in South Africa as well as internationally with methodologies ranging from generalized spatial surrogate application (leading to many assumptions being incorporated...

  18. Activity-dependent branching ratios in stocks, solar x-ray flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Elliot; Shreim, Amer; Paczuski, Maya

    2010-01-01

    We define an activity-dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series X(t). The branching ratio b(x) is defined as b(x)=E[xi(x)/x]. The random variable xi(x) is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to x, so xi(x)=[X(t+1) | X(t)=x]. If b(x)>1, the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to x, while if b(x)efficient market hypothesis." For stock volumes, solar x-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, b(x) is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power-law behavior. For solar x-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where b(x) approximately equal 1, which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for X(t) and for xi(x). For the BTW model the distribution of xi(x) is Gaussian, for x sufficiently larger than 1, and its variance grows linearly with x. Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where b(x) is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model-supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality.

  19. The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

    2017-01-01

    State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

  20. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Fengbin, E-mail: fblu@amss.ac.cn [Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Qiao, Han, E-mail: qiaohan@ucas.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Shouyang, E-mail: sywang@amss.ac.cn [School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Lai, Kin Keung, E-mail: mskklai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong); Li, Yuze, E-mail: richardyz.li@mail.utoronto.ca [Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto (Canada)

    2017-01-15

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  1. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model.

  2. Time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions model based on dynamic correlation with an application to crude oil and stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fengbin; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Lai, Kin Keung; Li, Yuze

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a new time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions (VAR) model, in which the coefficient is a linear function of dynamic lagged correlation. The proposed model allows for flexibility in choices of dynamic correlation models (e.g. dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, Markov-switching GARCH models and multivariate stochastic volatility models), which indicates that it can describe many types of time-varying causal effects. Time-varying causal relations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and the US Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock markets are examined by the proposed model. The empirical results show that their causal relations evolve with time and display complex characters. Both positive and negative causal effects of the WTI on the S&P 500 in the subperiods have been found and confirmed by the traditional VAR models. Similar results have been obtained in the causal effects of S&P 500 on WTI. In addition, the proposed model outperforms the traditional VAR model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Control Relevant Modeling and Design of Scramjet-Powered Hypersonic Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickeson, Jeffrey James

    This report provides an overview of scramjet-powered hypersonic vehicle modeling and control challenges. Such vehicles are characterized by unstable non-minimum phase dynamics with significant coupling and low thrust margins. Recent trends in hypersonic vehicle research are summarized. To illustrate control relevant design issues and tradeoffs, a generic nonlinear 3DOF longitudinal dynamics model capturing aero-elastic-propulsive interactions for wedge-shaped vehicle is used. Limitations of the model are discussed and numerous modifications have been made to address control relevant needs. Two different baseline configurations are examined over a two-stage to orbit ascent trajectory. The report highlights how vehicle level-flight static (trim) and dynamic properties change over the trajectory. Thermal choking constraints are imposed on control system design as a direct consequence of having a finite FER margin. The implication of this state-dependent nonlinear FER margin constraint, the right half plane (RHP) zero, and lightly damped flexible modes, on control system bandwidth (BW) and FPA tracking has been discussed. A control methodology has been proposed that addresses the above dynamics while providing some robustness to modeling uncertainty. Vehicle closure (the ability to fly a trajectory segment subject to constraints) is provided through a proposed vehicle design methodology. The design method attempts to use open loop metrics whenever possible to design the vehicle. The design method is applied to a vehicle/control law closed loop nonlinear simulation for validation. The 3DOF longitudinal modeling results are validated against a newly released NASA 6DOF code.

  4. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Experimental Model with CAN Network Real Time Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RATOI, M.

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an experimental model with a distributed control system of a hybrid electrical vehicle is presented. A communication CAN network of high speed (1 Mbps assures a distributed control of the all components. The modeling and the control of different operating regimes are realized on an experimental test-bench of a hybrid electrical vehicle. The experimental results concerning the variations of the mains variables (currents, torques, speeds are presented.

  5. A Traction Control Strategy with an Efficiency Model in a Distributed Driving Electric Vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Cheng; Cheng, Xingqun

    2014-01-01

    Both active safety and fuel economy are important issues for vehicles. This paper focuses on a traction control strategy with an efficiency model in a distributed driving electric vehicle. In emergency situation, a sliding mode control algorithm was employed to achieve antislip control through keeping the wheels' slip ratios below 20%. For general longitudinal driving cases, an efficiency model aiming at improving the fuel economy was built through an offline optimization stream within the tw...

  6. An automotive vehicle dynamics prototyping platform based on a remote control model car

    OpenAIRE

    SOLMAZ, Selim; COŞKUN, Türker

    2013-01-01

    The use of a modified remote control (RC) model car as a vehicle dynamics testing and development platform is detailed. Vehicle dynamics testing is an important aspect of automotive engineering and it plays a key role during the design and tuning of active safety control systems. Considering the fact that such tests are conductedi at great expense, scaled model cars can potentially be used to help with the process to reduce the costs. With this view, we instrument and develop a stand...

  7. A cellular automata model for traffic flow based on kinetics theory, vehicles capabilities and driver reactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzmán, H. A.; Lárraga, M. E.; Alvarez-Icaza, L.; Carvajal, J.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a reliable cellular automata model oriented to faithfully reproduce deceleration and acceleration according to realistic reactions of drivers, when vehicles with different deceleration capabilities are considered is presented. The model focuses on describing complex traffic phenomena by coding in its rules the basic mechanisms of drivers behavior, vehicles capabilities and kinetics, while preserving simplicity. In particular, vehiclés kinetics is based on uniform accelerated motion, rather than in impulsive accelerated motion as in most existing CA models. Thus, the proposed model calculates in an analytic way three safe preserving distances to determine the best action a follower vehicle can take under a worst case scenario. Besides, the prediction analysis guarantees that under the proper assumptions, collision between vehicles may not happen at any future time. Simulations results indicate that all interactions of heterogeneous vehicles (i.e., car-truck, truck-car, car-car and truck-truck) are properly reproduced by the model. In addition, the model overcomes one of the major limitations of CA models for traffic modeling: the inability to perform smooth approach to slower or stopped vehicles. Moreover, the model is also capable of reproducing most empirical findings including the backward speed of the downstream front of the traffic jam, and different congested traffic patterns induced by a system with open boundary conditions with an on-ramp. Like most CA models, integer values are used to make the model run faster, which makes the proposed model suitable for real time traffic simulation of large networks.

  8. A forward-looking, national-scale remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmquist, J. R.; Byrd, K. B.; Ballanti, L.; Nguyen, D.; Simard, M.; Windham-Myers, L.; Thomas, N.

    2017-12-01

    Remote sensing based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, have the potential to play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas inventories and implementing climate mitigation policies. Our goal was to generate a single remote sensing model of tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon that represents nationally diverse tidal marshes within the conterminous United States (CONUS). To meet this objective we developed the first national-scale dataset of aboveground tidal marsh biomass, species composition, and aboveground plant carbon content (%C) from six CONUS regions: Cape Cod, MA, Chesapeake Bay, MD, Everglades, FL, Mississippi Delta, LA, San Francisco Bay, CA, and Puget Sound, WA. Using the random forest algorithm we tested Sentinel-1 radar backscatter metrics and Landsat vegetation indices as predictors of biomass. The final model, driven by six Landsat vegetation indices and with the soil adjusted vegetation index as the most important (n=409, RMSE=310 g/m2, 10.3% normalized RMSE), successfully predicted biomass and carbon for a range of marsh plant functional types defined by height, leaf angle and growth form. Model error was reduced by scaling field measured biomass by Landsat fraction green vegetation derived from object-based classification of National Agriculture Imagery Program imagery. We generated 30m resolution biomass maps for estuarine and palustrine emergent tidal marshes as indicated by a modified NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program map for each region. With a mean plant %C of 44.1% (n=1384, 95% C.I.=43.99% - 44.37%) we estimated mean aboveground carbon densities (Mg/ha) and total carbon stocks for each wetland type for each region. Louisiana palustrine emergent marshes had the highest C density (2.67 ±0.08 Mg/ha) of all regions, while San Francisco Bay brackish/saline marshes had the highest C density of all estuarine emergent marshes (2.03 ±0.06 Mg/ha). This modeling and data synthesis effort will allow for aboveground

  9. Model and algorithm for bi-fuel vehicle routing problem to reduce GHG emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdoli, Behroz; MirHassani, Seyed Ali; Hooshmand, Farnaz

    2017-09-01

    Because of the harmful effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted by petroleum-based fuels, the adoption of alternative green fuels such as biodiesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) is an inevitable trend in the transportation sector. However, the transition to alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) fleets is not easy and, particularly at the beginning of the transition period, drivers may be forced to travel long distances to reach alternative fueling stations (AFSs). In this paper, the utilization of bi-fuel vehicles is proposed as an operational approach. We present a mathematical model to address vehicle routing problem (VRP) with bi-fuel vehicles and show that the utilization of bi-fuel vehicles can lead to a significant reduction in GHG emissions. Moreover, a simulated annealing algorithm is adopted to solve large instances of this problem. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on some random instances.

  10. An Integrated Model of Motion, Steering, Positioning and Stabilization of an Unmanned Autonomous Maritime Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Gerigk

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the aim of an interdisciplinary research is presented. The research method is introduced. An object the unmanned autonomous maritime vehicle is briefly described. The key research problem concerns a combined model of the vehicle motion including the loads of lift and hydrodynamic nature. The model takes into account the gravity and displacement forces, resistance and thrust forces, lift and other hydrodynamic forces. One of the major research tasks is to precisely predict the position of the vehicle. To do that an integrated model of acquiring, analyzing and processing the signals is necessary. The processed signals may then be used for the precise steering of the vehicle. The vehicle should be equipped with a stabilization system. Some information on an integrated steering, positioning and stabilization system of the vehicle is briefly presented in the paper. Such the system enables to obtain a fully autonomous vehicle. Some information on the propulsion and underwater energy supply systems are presented in the paper, too.

  11. A stock market forecasting model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis and radial basis function neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhiqiang; Wang, Huaiqing; Yang, Jie; Miller, David J

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement a hybrid model combining two-directional two-dimensional principal component analysis ((2D)2PCA) and a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to forecast stock market behavior. First, 36 stock market technical variables are selected as the input features, and a sliding window is used to obtain the input data of the model. Next, (2D)2PCA is utilized to reduce the dimension of the data and extract its intrinsic features. Finally, an RBFNN accepts the data processed by (2D)2PCA to forecast the next day's stock price or movement. The proposed model is used on the Shanghai stock market index, and the experiments show that the model achieves a good level of fitness. The proposed model is then compared with one that uses the traditional dimension reduction method principal component analysis (PCA) and independent component analysis (ICA). The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms the PCA-based model, as well as alternative models based on ICA and on the multilayer perceptron.

  12. Developing Inventory Projection Models Using Empirical Net Forest Growth and Growing-Stock Density Relationships Across U.S. Regions and Species Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes a set of empirical net forest growth models based on forest growing-stock density relationships for three U.S. regions (North, South, and West) and two species groups (softwoods and hardwoods) at the regional aggregate level. The growth models accurately predict historical U.S. timber inventory trends when we incorporate historical timber harvests...

  13. Development and assessment of a physics-based simulation model to investigate residential PM2.5 infiltration across the US housing stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Population Impact Assessment Modeling Framework (PIAMF) was expanded to enable determination of indoor PM2.5 concentrations and exposures in a set of 50,000 homes representing the US housing stock. A mass-balance model is used to calculat...

  14. A Discrete-Event Simulation Model for Evaluating Air Force Reusable Military Launch Vehicle Post-Landing Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Martindale, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop a discrete-event computer simulation model of the post-landing vehicle recoveoperations to allow the Air Force Research Laboratory, Air Vehicles Directorate...

  15. Effects of improved spatial and temporal modeling of on-road vehicle emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhjem, Christian E; Pollack, Alison K; DenBleyker, Allison; Shaw, Stephanie L

    2012-04-01

    Numerous emission and air quality modeling studies have suggested the need to accurately characterize the spatial and temporal variations in on-road vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact that using detailed traffic activity data has on emission estimates used to model air quality impacts. The on-road vehicle emissions are estimated by multiplying the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by the fleet-average emission factors determined by road link and hour of day. Changes in the fraction of VMT from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) can have a significant impact on estimated fleet-average emissions because the emission factors for HDDV nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are much higher than those for light-duty gas vehicles (LDGVs). Through detailed road link-level on-road vehicle emission modeling, this work investigated two scenarios for better characterizing mobile source emissions: (1) improved spatial and temporal variation of vehicle type fractions, and (2) use of Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES2010) instead of MOBILE6 exhaust emission factors. Emissions were estimated for the Detroit and Atlanta metropolitan areas for summer and winter episodes. The VMT mix scenario demonstrated the importance of better characterizing HDDV activity by time of day, day of week, and road type. More HDDV activity occurs on restricted access road types on weekdays and at nonpeak times, compared to light-duty vehicles, resulting in 5-15% higher NOx and PM emission rates during the weekdays and 15-40% lower rates on weekend days. Use of MOVES2010 exhaust emission factors resulted in increases of more than 50% in NOx and PM for both HDDVs and LDGVs, relative to MOBILE6. Because LDGV PM emissions have been shown to increase with lower temperatures, the most dramatic increase from MOBILE6 to MOVES2010 emission rates occurred for PM2.5 from LDGVs that increased 500% during colder wintertime conditions found in Detroit, the northernmost

  16. Data Fusion Modeling for an RT3102 and Dewetron System Application in Hybrid Vehicle Stability Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhibin Miao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available More and more hybrid electric vehicles are driven since they offer such advantages as energy savings and better active safety performance. Hybrid vehicles have two or more power driving systems and frequently switch working condition, so controlling stability is very important. In this work, a two-stage Kalman algorithm method is used to fuse data in hybrid vehicle stability testing. First, the RT3102 navigation system and Dewetron system are introduced. Second, a modeling of data fusion is proposed based on the Kalman filter. Then, this modeling is simulated and tested on a sample vehicle, using Carsim and Simulink software to test the results. The results showed the merits of this modeling.

  17. Model identification of a flapping wing micro aerial vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Aguiar Vieira Caetano, J.V.

    2016-01-01

    Different flapping wing micro aerial vehicles (FWMAV) have been developed for academic (Harvard’s RoboBee), military (Israel Aerospace Industries’ Butterfly) and technology demonstration (Aerovironment’s NanoHummingBird) purposes. Among these, theDelFly II is recognized as one of themost successful configurations of FWMAV, with a broad flight envelope, that spans fromhover to fast forward flight, revealing autonomous capabilities in the form of automatic flight and obstacle avoidance. Despite...

  18. Stock market dynamics created by interacting agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Riad Remita

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a stock market model, consisting in a large number of agents, going eventually to infinity, and evaluate the stock price under the influence of opinions of different agents. Next we study the behavior of prices when the market is very nervous; there appear discontinuities (phase transitions which can be interpreted as stock market crashes.

  19. Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Timothy; Yao, Runming

    2013-01-01

    The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures. - Highlights: ► Long term energy models are reviewed with a focus on UK domestic stock models. ► Existing models are found weak in modelling green technology buying behaviour. ► Agent models, Markov chains and neural networks are considered as solutions. ► Agent-based modelling (ABM) is found to be the most promising approach. ► A prototype ABM is developed and testing indicates a lot of potential.

  20. Identification of fine scale and landscape scale drivers of urban aboveground carbon stocks using high-resolution modeling and mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Matthew G E; Johansen, Kasper; Maron, Martine; McAlpine, Clive A; Wu, Dan; Rhodes, Jonathan R

    2018-05-01

    Urban areas are sources of land use change and CO 2 emissions that contribute to global climate change. Despite this, assessments of urban vegetation carbon stocks often fail to identify important landscape-scale drivers of variation in urban carbon, especially the potential effects of landscape structure variables at different spatial scales. We combined field measurements with Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data to build high-resolution models of woody plant aboveground carbon across the urban portion of Brisbane, Australia, and then identified landscape scale drivers of these carbon stocks. First, we used LiDAR data to quantify the extent and vertical structure of vegetation across the city at high resolution (5×5m). Next, we paired this data with aboveground carbon measurements at 219 sites to create boosted regression tree models and map aboveground carbon across the city. We then used these maps to determine how spatial variation in land cover/land use and landscape structure affects these carbon stocks. Foliage densities above 5m height, tree canopy height, and the presence of ground openings had the strongest relationships with aboveground carbon. Using these fine-scale relationships, we estimate that 2.2±0.4 TgC are stored aboveground in the urban portion of Brisbane, with mean densities of 32.6±5.8MgCha -1 calculated across the entire urban land area, and 110.9±19.7MgCha -1 calculated within treed areas. Predicted carbon densities within treed areas showed strong positive relationships with the proportion of surrounding tree cover and how clumped that tree cover was at both 1km 2 and 1ha resolutions. Our models predict that even dense urban areas with low tree cover can have high carbon densities at fine scales. We conclude that actions and policies aimed at increasing urban carbon should focus on those areas where urban tree cover is most fragmented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Ballanti, Laurel; Thomas, Nathan; Nguyen, Dung; Holmquist, James R.; Simard, Marc; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

    2018-01-01

    Remote sensing based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, have the potential to play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas inventories and implementing climate mitigation policies. Our objective was to generate a single remote sensing model of tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon that represents nationally diverse tidal marshes within the conterminous United States (CONUS). We developed the first calibration-grade, national-scale dataset of aboveground tidal marsh biomass, species composition, and aboveground plant carbon content (%C) from six CONUS regions: Cape Cod, MA, Chesapeake Bay, MD, Everglades, FL, Mississippi Delta, LA, San Francisco Bay, CA, and Puget Sound, WA. Using the random forest machine learning algorithm, we tested whether imagery from multiple sensors, Sentinel-1 C-band synthetic aperture radar, Landsat, and the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), can improve model performance. The final model, driven by six Landsat vegetation indices and with the soil adjusted vegetation index as the most important (n = 409, RMSE = 310 g/m2, 10.3% normalized RMSE), successfully predicted biomass for a range of marsh plant functional types defined by height, leaf angle and growth form. Model results were improved by scaling field-measured biomass calibration data by NAIP-derived 30 m fraction green vegetation. With a mean plant carbon content of 44.1% (n = 1384, 95% C.I. = 43.99%–44.37%), we generated regional 30 m aboveground carbon density maps for estuarine and palustrine emergent tidal marshes as indicated by a modified NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program map. We applied a multivariate delta method to calculate uncertainties in regional carbon densities and stocks that considered standard error in map area, mean biomass and mean %C. Louisiana palustrine emergent marshes had the highest C density (2.67 ± 0.004 Mg/ha) of all regions, while San Francisco Bay brackish/saline marshes had

  2. Measuring a conceptual model of the relationship between compulsive cell phone use, in-vehicle cell phone use, and motor vehicle crash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Stephen S; Shain, Lindsey M; Whitehill, Jennifer M; Ebel, Beth E

    2017-02-01

    Previous research suggests that anticipation of incoming phone calls or messages and impulsivity are significantly associated with motor vehicle crash. We took a more explanative approach to investigate a conceptual model regarding the direct and indirect effect of compulsive cell phone use and impulsive personality traits on crash risk. We recruited a sample of 307 undergraduate college students to complete an online survey that included measures of cell phone use, impulsivity, and history of motor vehicle crash. Using a structural equation model, we examined the direct and indirect relationships between factors of the Cell Phone Overuse Scale-II (CPOS-II), impulsivity, in-vehicle phone use, and severity and frequency of previous motor vehicle crash. Self-reported miles driven per week and year in college were included as covariates in the model. Our findings suggest that anticipation of incoming communication has a direct association with greater in-vehicle phone use, but was not directly or indirectly associated with increasing risk of previous motor vehicle crash. Of the three latent factors comprising the CPOS-II, only anticipation was significantly associated with elevated cell phone use while driving. Greater impulsivity and use of in-vehicle cell phone use while driving were directly and significantly associated with greater risk of motor vehicle crash. Anticipation of incoming cellular contacts (calls or texts) is associated with greater in-vehicle phone use, while greater in-vehicle cell phone use and impulsive traits are associated with elevated risk of motor vehicle crashes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Validating Virtual Safety Stock Effectiveness through Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Elena Nenni

    2013-08-01

    safety stock effectiveness through simulation in an inventory system using a base stock policy with periodic reviews and backorders. This approach can be useful for researchers as well as practitioners who want to model the behaviour of an inventory system under uncertain conditions and verify the opportunity for setting up a virtual safety stock on top of, or instead of, the traditional physical safety stock.

  4. Simulation of an electric vehicle model on the new WLTC test cycle using AVL CRUISE software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristian Cioroianu, Constantin; Marinescu, Dănuţ Gabriel; Iorga, Adrian; Răzvan Sibiceanu, Adrian

    2017-10-01

    Nowadays, environmental pollution has become a general issue and the automotive industry is probably the most affected. The principal air-quality pollutant emissions from petrol, diesel and LPG engines are carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, un-burnt hydrocarbons. Modern cars produce only quite small quantities of the air quality pollutants, but the emissions from large numbers of cars add to a significant air quality problem. Electric vehicles are an answer to this problem because they have absolutely no emissions. These vehicles have some major disadvantages regarding cost and range. In this paper, an electric vehicle model will be created in the AVL Cruise software. The constructed model is based on the existing Dacia Sandero. Also unlike the real car, the model presented has different characteristics since it is a full electric vehicle. It has an electric motor instead of the petrol engine and a battery pack placed in the trunk. The model will be simulated in order to obtain data regarding vehicle performance, energy consumption and range on the new WLTC test cycle. The obtained know-how will help on later improvements of the electric model regarding methods to increase the vehicle range on the new WLTC test cycle.

  5. Combining measurements and modelling to quantify the contribution of atmospheric fallout, local industry and road traffic to PAH stocks in contrasting catchments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gateuille, David; Evrard, Olivier; Lefevre, Irène; Moreau-Guigon, Elodie; Alliot, Fabrice; Chevreuil, Marc; Mouchel, Jean-Marie

    2014-01-01

    Various sources supply PAHs that accumulate in soils. The methodology we developed provided an evaluation of the contribution of local sources (road traffic, local industries) versus remote sources (long range atmospheric transport, fallout and gaseous exchanges) to PAH stocks in two contrasting subcatchments (46–614 km²) of the Seine River basin (France). Soil samples (n = 336) were analysed to investigate the spatial pattern of soil contamination across the catchments and an original combination with radionuclide measurements provided new insights into the evolution of the contamination with depth. Relationships between PAH concentrations and the distance to the potential sources were modelled. Despite both subcatchments are mainly rural, roadside areas appeared to concentrate 20% of the contamination inside the catchment while a local industry was found to be responsible for up to 30% of the stocks. Those results have important implications for understanding and controlling PAH contamination in rural areas of early-industrialized regions. - Highlights: • Contributions of several sources to PAH stocks in soils were investigated. • PAH stocks in soils varied between 13 and 735 mg m −2 depending on source vicinity. • Roadside areas concentrated 20% of the catchment contamination. • Local industry was found to be responsible for 30% of the stocks. - Source contributions to PAH soil contamination were investigated with distance-based models

  6. Model-based design approaches for plug-in hybrid vehicle design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendes, C.J. [CrossChasm Technologies, Cambridge, ON (Canada); Stevens, M.B.; Fowler, M.W. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Fraser, R.A. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Wilhelm, E.J. [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen (Switzerland). Energy Systems Analysis

    2007-07-01

    A model-based design process for plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) was presented. The paper discussed steps between the initial design concept and a working vehicle prototype, and focused on an investigation of the software-in-the-loop (SIL), hardware-in-the-loop (HIL), and component-in-the-loop (CIL) design phases. The role and benefits of using simulation were also reviewed. A method for mapping and identifying components was provided along with a hybrid control strategy and component-level control optimization process. The role of simulation in component evaluation, architecture design, and de-bugging procedures was discussed, as well as the role simulation networks can play in speeding deployment times. The simulations focused on work performed on a 2005 Chevrolet Equinox converted to a fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle (FCHEV). Components were aggregated to create a complete virtual vehicle. A simplified vehicle model was implemented onto the on-board vehicle control hardware. Optimization metrics were estimated at 10 alpha values during each control loop iteration. The simulation was then used to tune the control system under a variety of drive cycles and conditions. A CIL technique was used to place a physical hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) component under the control of a real time HEV/PHEV simulation. It was concluded that controllers should have a standardized component description that supports integration into advanced testing procedures. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  7. Development and demonstration of a validation methodology for vehicle lateral dynamics simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kutluay, Emir

    2013-02-01

    In this thesis a validation methodology to be used in the assessment of the vehicle dynamics simulation models is presented. Simulation of vehicle dynamics is used to estimate the dynamic responses of existing or proposed vehicles and has a wide array of applications in the development of vehicle technologies. Although simulation environments, measurement tools and mathematical theories on vehicle dynamics are well established, the methodical link between the experimental test data and validity analysis of the simulation model is still lacking. The developed validation paradigm has a top-down approach to the problem. It is ascertained that vehicle dynamics simulation models can only be validated using test maneuvers although they are aimed for real world maneuvers. Test maneuvers are determined according to the requirements of the real event at the start of the model development project and data handling techniques, validation metrics and criteria are declared for each of the selected maneuvers. If the simulation results satisfy these criteria, then the simulation is deemed ''not invalid''. If the simulation model fails to meet the criteria, the model is deemed invalid, and model iteration should be performed. The results are analyzed to determine if the results indicate a modeling error or a modeling inadequacy; and if a conditional validity in terms of system variables can be defined. Three test cases are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. The developed methodology successfully identified the shortcomings of the tested simulation model, and defined the limits of application. The tested simulation model is found to be acceptable but valid only in a certain dynamical range. Several insights for the deficiencies of the model are reported in the analysis but the iteration step of the methodology is not demonstrated. Utilizing the proposed methodology will help to achieve more time and cost efficient simulation projects with

  8. Research on vehicles and cargos matching model based on virtual logistics platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Yufeng; Lu, Jiang; Su, Zhiyuan

    2018-04-01

    Highway less than truckload (LTL) transportation vehicles and cargos matching problem is a joint optimization problem of typical vehicle routing and loading, which is also a hot issue of operational research. This article based on the demand of virtual logistics platform, for the problem of the highway LTL transportation, the matching model of the idle vehicle and the transportation order is set up and the corresponding genetic algorithm is designed. Then the algorithm is implemented by Java. The simulation results show that the solution is satisfactory.

  9. Measurement and modelling of noise emission of road vehicles for use in prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonasson, H.G.

    2000-07-01

    The road vehicle as sound source has been studied within a wide frequency range. Well defined measurements have been carried out on moving and stationary vehicles. Measurement results have been checked against theoretical simulations. A Nordtest measurement method to obtain input data for prediction methods has been proposed and tested in four different countries. The effective sound source of a car has its centre close to the nearest wheels. For trucks this centre seems to be closer to the centre of the car. The vehicle as sound source is directional both in the vertical and the horizontal plane. The difference between SEL and L{sub pFmax} during a pass-by varies with frequency. At low frequencies interference effects between correlated sources may be the problem. At high frequencies the directivity of tyre/road noise affects the result. The time when L{sub pFmax} is obtained varies with frequency. Thus traditional maximum measurements are not suitable for frequency band applications. The measurements support the fact that the tyre/road noise source is very low. Measurements on a stationary vehicle indicate that the engine source is also very low. Engine noise is screened by the body of the car. The ground attenuation, also at short distances, will be significant whenever we use low microphone positions and have some 'soft' ground in between. Unless all measurements are restricted to propagation over 'hard' surfaces only it is necessary to use rather high microphone positions. The Nordtest method proposed will yield a reproducibility standard deviation of 1-3 dB depending on frequency. High frequencies are more accurate. In order to get accurate results at low frequencies large numbers of vehicles are required. To determine the sound power level from pass-by measurement requires a proper source and propagation model. As these models may change it is recommended to measure and report both SEL and L{sub pFmax} normalized to a specified distance.

  10. Do More Economists Hold Stocks?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Joensen, Juanna Schröter; Rangvid, Jesper

    A unique data set enables us to test the hypothesis that more economists than otherwise identical investors hold stocks due to informational advantages. We confirm that economists have a significantly higher probability of participating in the stock market than investors with any other education......, even when controlling for several background characteristics. We make use of a large register-based panel data set containing detailed information on the educational attainments and various financial and socioeconomic variables. We model the stock market participation decision by the probit model...

  11. Unmanned Surface Sea Vehicle Power System Design and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-11-29

    Singh, C.J. Fennie , Jr., A.J. Salkind, and D.E. Reisner, "A Fuzzy Logic Methodology to Determine State-of-Charge (SOC) in Electric and Hybrid Vehicle...Systems", 16th IEEE Photovoltaic same length of 10 meters. Specialists Conference, pp. 513-518, 1982. [5] Pritpal Singh, Craig J. Fennie , Jr., Alvin J...34Estimation of Battery Charge in Photovoltaic Systems", 16th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, pp. 513-518, 1982. [5] Pritpal Singh, Craig J. Fennie , Jr

  12. Modeling the Turning Speed and Car Following Behaviors of Autonomous Vehicles in a Virtual World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrillo-González José Gerardo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with mathematical models for controlling vehicles behavior in a virtual world, where two behaviors are considered: 1 curve turning and 2 car following situations, in this last is essential to provide a safety distance between the leader and the follower and at the same time keep the follower not delayed with respect to the leader, and in a curve turning the complexity is to provide a safety speed inside the curve and keep the car inside the lane. Using basic information as vehicles position, mathematical models can be developed for explaining the heading angle and the autonomous vehicles speed on curves, i.e. the controlled by the models. A model that predicts the autonomous vehicle speed on curves is developed considering previous data in other curves. Two models that control the acceleration/deceleration behavior of autonomous vehicles in a car following situation are proposed. In the first model, the parameters are calibrated with a proposed algorithm which enables accuracy in order to imitate the human behavior for accelerating and braking, and the second model provides a safety distance between the follower and the leader at sudden stops of the latter and employs the acceleration/deceleration top capabilities to follow the leader car similar to the human behavior.

  13. Modeling and predicting low-speed vehicle emissions as a function of driving kinematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lijun; Chen, Wei; Li, Lei; Tan, Jianwei; Wang, Xin; Yin, Hang; Ding, Yan; Ge, Yunshan

    2017-05-01

    An instantaneous emission model was developed to model and predict the real driving emissions of the low-speed vehicles. The emission database used in the model was measured by using portable emission measurement system (PEMS) under actual traffic conditions in the rural area, and the characteristics of the emission data were determined in relation to the driving kinematics (speed and acceleration) of the low-speed vehicle. The input of the emission model is driving cycle, and the model requires instantaneous vehicle speed and acceleration levels as input variables and uses them to interpolate the pollutant emission rate maps to calculate the transient pollutant emission rates, which will be accumulated to calculate the total emissions released during the whole driving cycle. And the vehicle fuel consumption was determined through the carbon balance method. The model predicted the emissions and fuel consumption of an in-use low-speed vehicle type model, which agreed well with the measured data. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Geometry Modeling and Adaptive Control of Air-Breathing Hypersonic Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vick, Tyler Joseph

    Air-breathing hypersonic vehicles have the potential to provide global reach and affordable access to space. Recent technological advancements have made scramjet-powered flight achievable, as evidenced by the successes of the X-43A and X-51A flight test programs over the last decade. Air-breathing hypersonic vehicles present unique modeling and control challenges in large part due to the fact that scramjet propulsion systems are highly integrated into the airframe, resulting in strongly coupled and often unstable dynamics. Additionally, the extreme flight conditions and inability to test fully integrated vehicle systems larger than X-51 before flight leads to inherent uncertainty in hypersonic flight. This thesis presents a means to design vehicle geometries, simulate vehicle dynamics, and develop and analyze control systems for hypersonic vehicles. First, a software tool for generating three-dimensional watertight vehicle surface meshes from simple design parameters is developed. These surface meshes are compatible with existing vehicle analysis tools, with which databases of aerodynamic and propulsive forces and moments can be constructed. A six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear dynamics simulation model which incorporates this data is presented. Inner-loop longitudinal and lateral control systems are designed and analyzed utilizing the simulation model. The first is an output feedback proportional-integral linear controller designed using linear quadratic regulator techniques. The second is a model reference adaptive controller (MRAC) which augments this baseline linear controller with an adaptive element. The performance and robustness of each controller are analyzed through simulated time responses to angle-of-attack and bank angle commands, while various uncertainties are introduced. The MRAC architecture enables the controller to adapt in a nonlinear fashion to deviations from the desired response, allowing for improved tracking performance, stability, and

  15. Mark Stock | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock Mark Stock Scientific Visualization Specialist Mark.Stock@nrel.gov | 303-275-4174 Dr. Stock , virtual reality, parallel computing, and manipulation of large spatial data sets. As an artist, he creates . Stock built the SUNLIGHT artwork that is installed on the Webb Building in downtown Denver. In addition

  16. Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

    2017-09-01

    In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

  17. Post-vehicle-application lithium-ion battery remanufacturing, repurposing and recycling capacity: Modeling and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Robert Standridge

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: A mathematical model is used to help determine the manufacturing capacity needed to support post-vehicle-application remanufacturing, repurposing, and recycling of lithium-ion batteries over time.  Simulation is used in solving the model to estimate capacity in kWh.  Lithium-ion batteries that are commonly used in the electrification of vehicles cannot be simply discarded post-vehicle-application due to the materials of which they are composed.  Eventually, each will fail to hold a charge and will need to be recycled.  Remanufacturing, allowing a battery to return to a vehicle application, and repurposing, transforming a battery for use in a non-vehicle application, postpone recycling and increase value. The mathematical model and its solution using simulation test the hypothesis that the capacity needed for remanufacturing, repurposing, and recycling as well as new battery production is a function of a single parameter:  the percent of post-vehicle-application batteries that are remanufactured. Design/methodology/approach: Equations in the mathematical model represent the capacity needed for remanufacturing, repurposing, and recycling as well as new battery production as dependent variables.  Independent variables are exogenous quantities as such as the demand for electrified vehicles of all types, physical properties of batteries such as their application life distribution including the time to recycling, and a single decision variable:  the percent of post-vehicle-application batteries that are remanufactured.  Values of the dependent variables over time are estimated by simulation for values of the percent of post-vehicle-application batteries ranging from 0% to 85% in steps of 5%. Findings and Originality/value: The simulation results support important insights for investment in capacity for remanufacturing, repurposing, and recycling of post-vehicle-application batteries as well as new batteries.  The capacity needed for

  18. A path-following driver/vehicle model with optimized lateral dynamic controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behrooz Mashadi

    Full Text Available Reduction in traffic congestion and overall number of accidents, especially within the last decade, can be attributed to the enormous progress in active safety. Vehicle path following control with the presence of driver commands can be regarded as one of the important issues in vehicle active safety systems development and more realistic explanation of vehicle path tracking problem. In this paper, an integrated driver/DYC control system is presented that regulates the steering angle and yaw moment, considering driver previewed path. Thus, the driver previewed distance, the heading error and the lateral deviation between the vehicle and desired path are used as inputs. Then, the controller determines and applies a corrective steering angle and a direct yaw moment to make the vehicle follow the desired path. A PID controller with optimized gains is used for the control of integrated driver/DYC system. Genetic Algorithm as an intelligent optimization method is utilized to adapt PID controller gains for various working situations. Proposed integrated driver/DYC controller is examined on lane change manuvers andthe sensitivity of the control system is investigated through the changes in the driver model and vehicle parameters. Simulation results show the pronounced effectiveness of the controller in vehicle path following and stability.

  19. Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torsten Hothorn

    Full Text Available Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining

  20. Study of Model Predictive Control for Path-Following Autonomous Ground Vehicle Control under Crosswind Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fitri Yakub

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative study of model predictive control approaches of two-wheel steering, four-wheel steering, and a combination of two-wheel steering with direct yaw moment control manoeuvres for path-following control in autonomous car vehicle dynamics systems. Single-track mode, based on a linearized vehicle and tire model, is used. Based on a given trajectory, we drove the vehicle at low and high forward speeds and on low and high road friction surfaces for a double-lane change scenario in order to follow the desired trajectory as close as possible while rejecting the effects of wind gusts. We compared the controller based on both simple and complex bicycle models without and with the roll vehicle dynamics for different types of model predictive control manoeuvres. The simulation result showed that the model predictive control gave a better performance in terms of robustness for both forward speeds and road surface variation in autonomous path-following control. It also demonstrated that model predictive control is useful to maintain vehicle stability along the desired path and has an ability to eliminate the crosswind effect.