WorldWideScience

Sample records for vegetation dynamic model

  1. Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

  2. Toward a Mechanistic Modeling of Nitrogen Limitation on Vegetation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Wilson, Cathy J.; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO(2) concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we deve...

  3. A method for climate and vegetation reconstruction through the inversion of a dynamic vegetation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garreta, Vincent; Guiot, Joel; Hely, Christelle [CEREGE, UMR 6635, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Europole de l' Arbois, Aix-en-Provence (France); Miller, Paul A.; Sykes, Martin T. [Lund University, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund (Sweden); Brewer, Simon [Universite de Liege, Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique, Liege (Belgium); Litt, Thomas [University of Bonn, Paleontological Institute, Bonn (Germany)

    2010-08-15

    Climate reconstructions from data sensitive to past climates provide estimates of what these climates were like. Comparing these reconstructions with simulations from climate models allows to validate the models used for future climate prediction. It has been shown that for fossil pollen data, gaining estimates by inverting a vegetation model allows inclusion of past changes in carbon dioxide values. As a new generation of dynamic vegetation model is available we have developed an inversion method for one model, LPJ-GUESS. When this novel method is used with high-resolution sediment it allows us to bypass the classic assumptions of (1) climate and pollen independence between samples and (2) equilibrium between the vegetation, represented as pollen, and climate. Our dynamic inversion method is based on a statistical model to describe the links among climate, simulated vegetation and pollen samples. The inversion is realised thanks to a particle filter algorithm. We perform a validation on 30 modern European sites and then apply the method to the sediment core of Meerfelder Maar (Germany), which covers the Holocene at a temporal resolution of approximately one sample per 30 years. We demonstrate that reconstructed temperatures are constrained. The reconstructed precipitation is less well constrained, due to the dimension considered (one precipitation by season), and the low sensitivity of LPJ-GUESS to precipitation changes. (orig.)

  4. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  5. Integration of biomass data in the dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delbart, N.; Viovy, N.; Ciais, P.; Le Toan, T.

    2009-04-01

    Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are aimed at estimating exchanges between the terrestrial vegetated surface and the atmosphere, and the spatial distribution of natural vegetation types. For this purpose, DVMs use the climatic data alone to feed the vegetation process equations. As dynamic models, they can also give predictions under the current and the future climatic conditions. However, they currently lack accuracy in locating carbon stocks, sinks and sources, and in getting the correct magnitude. Consequently they have been essentially used to compare the vegetation responses under different scenarii. The assimilation of external data such as remote sensing data has been shown to improve the simulations. For example, the land cover maps are used to force the correct distribution of plant functional types (PFTs), and the leaf area index data is used to force the photosynthesis processes. This study concerns the integration of biomass data within the DVM ORCHIDEE. The objective here is to have the living carbon stocks with the correct magnitude and the correct location. Carbon stocks depend on interplay of carbon assimilated by photosynthesis, and carbon lost by respiration, mortality and disturbance. Biomass data can therefore be used as one essential constraint on this interplay. In this study, we use a large database provided by in-situ measurements of carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of old growth forests to constraint this interplay. For each PFT, we first adjust the simulated photosynthesis by reducing the mean error with the in situ measurements. Then we proceed similarly to adjust the autotrophic respiration. We then compare the biomass measured, and adjust the mortality processes in the model. Second, when processes are adjusted for each PFT to minimize the mean error on the carbon stock, biomass measurements can be assimilated. This assimilation is based on the hypothesis that the main variable explaining the biomass level at a given location is the age

  6. Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonggang Xu

    Full Text Available Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO(2 concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO(2 concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of V(c,max (maximum carboxylation rate and J(max (maximum electron transport rate. A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO(2 concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the

  7. Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D; Wilson, Cathy J; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO(2) concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO(2) concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of V(c,max) (maximum carboxylation rate) and J(max) (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO(2) concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation

  8. Toward a Mechanistic Modeling of Nitrogen Limitation on Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Wilson, Cathy J.; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO2 concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of Vc,max (maximum carboxylation rate) and Jmax (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO2 concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks

  9. Assessing 20th century climate-vegetation feedbacks of land-use change and natural vegetation dynamics in a fully coupled vegetation-climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strengers, B.J.; Müller, C.; Schaeffer, M.; Haarsma, R.J.; Severijns, C.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Houdt, Van den R.; Oostenrijk, R.

    2010-01-01

    This study describes the coupling of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), Lund–Potsdam–Jena Model for managed land (LPJmL), with the general circulation model (GCM), Simplified Parameterizations primitivE Equation DYnamics model (SPEEDY), to study the feedbacks between land-use change and

  10. Soil dynamics and accelerated erosion: a sensitivity analysis of the LPJ Dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchoms, Samuel; Van Oost, Kristof; Vanacker, Veerle; Kaplan, Jed O.; Vanwalleghem, Tom

    2013-04-01

    It is widely accepted that humans have become a major geomorphic force by disturbing natural vegetation patterns. Land conversion for agriculture purposes removes the protection of soils by the natural vegetation and leads to increased soil erosion by one to two orders of magnitude, breaking the balance that exists between the loss of soils and its production. Accelerated erosion and deposition have a strong influence on evolution and heterogeneity of basic soil characteristics (soil thickness, hydrology, horizon development,…) as well as on organic matter storage and cycling. Yet, since they are operating at a long time scale, those processes are not represented in state-of-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which is a clear lack when exploring vegetation dynamics over past centuries. The main objectives of this paper are (i) to test the sensitivity of a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, in terms of NPP and organic matter turnover, variations in state variables in response to accelerated erosion and (ii) to assess the performance of the model under the impact of erosion for a case-study in Central Spain. We evaluated the Lund-Postdam-Jena Dynamic Vegetation Model (LPJ DVGM) (Sitch et al, 2003) which simulates vegetation growth and carbon pools at the surface and in the soil based on climatic, pedologic and topographic variables. We assessed its reactions to changes in key soil properties that are affected by erosion such as texture and soil depth. We present the results of where we manipulated soil texture and bulk density while keeping the environmental drivers of climate, slope and altitude constant. For parameters exhibiting a strong control on NPP or SOM, a factorial analysis was conducted to test for interaction effects. The simulations show an important dependence on the clay content, especially for the slow cycling carbon pools and the biomass production, though the underground litter seems to be mostly influenced by the silt content. The fast cycling C

  11. Vegetation dynamics and dynamic vegetation science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Maarel, E

    1996-01-01

    his contribution presents a review of the development of the study of vegetation dynamics since 1979, in the framework of a jubilee meeting on progress in the study of vegetation. However, an exhaustive review is both impossible and unnecessary. It is impossible within the few pages available

  12. Dynamic modeling of the cesium, strontium, and ruthenium transfer to grass and vegetables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renaud, P.; Real, J.; Maubert, H.; Roussel-Debet, S.

    1999-01-01

    From 1988 to 1993, the Nuclear Safety and Protection Institute (Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire -- IPSN) conducted experimental programs focused on transfers to vegetation following accidental localized deposits of radioactive aerosols. In relation to vegetable crops (fruit, leaves, and root vegetables) and meadow grass these experiments have enabled a determination of the factors involved in the transfer of cesium, strontium, and ruthenium at successive harvests, or cuttings, in respect of various time lags after contamination. The dynamic modeling given by these results allows an evaluation of changes in the mass activity of vegetables and grass during the months following deposit. It constitutes part of the ASTRAL post-accident radioecology model

  13. Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardö, Jonas

    2015-12-01

    Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

  14. An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

    2002-01-01

    Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

  15. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

  16. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

  17. Influence of vegetation dynamic modeling on the allocation of green and blue waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Francés, Félix

    2015-04-01

    The long history of the Mediterranean region is dominated by the interactions and co-evolution between man and its natural environment. It is important to consider that the Mediterranean region is recurrently or permanently confronted with the scarcity of the water. The issue of climate change is (and will be) aggravating this situation. This raises the question of a loss of services that ecosystems provide to human and also the amount of available water to be used by vegetation. The question of the water cycle, therefore, should be considered in an integrated manner by taking into account both blue water (water in liquid form used for the human needs or which flows into the oceans) and green water (water having the vapor for resulting from evaporation and transpiration processes). In spite of this, traditionally, very few hydrological models have incorporated the vegetation dynamic as a state variable. In fact, most of them are able to represent fairly well the observed discharge, but usually including the vegetation as a static parameter. However, in the last decade, the number of hydrological models which explicitly take into account the vegetation development as a state variable has increased substantially. In this work, we want to analyze if it is really necessary to use a dynamic vegetation model to quantify adequately the distribution of water into blue and green water. The study site is located in the Public Forest Monte de la Hunde y Palomeras (Spain). The vegetation in the study area is dominated by Aleppo pine of high tree density with scant presence of other species. Two different daily models were applied (with static and dynamic vegetation representation respectively) in three different scenarios: dry year (2005), normal year (2008) and wet year (2010). The static vegetation model simulates the evapotranspiration considering the vegetation as a stationary parameter. Contrarily, the dynamic vegetation model connects the hydrological model with a

  18. Effect of river flow fluctuations on riparian vegetation dynamics: Processes and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesipa, Riccardo; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2017-12-01

    Several decades of field observations, laboratory experiments and mathematical modelings have demonstrated that the riparian environment is a disturbance-driven ecosystem, and that the main source of disturbance is river flow fluctuations. The focus of the present work has been on the key role that flow fluctuations play in determining the abundance, zonation and species composition of patches of riparian vegetation. To this aim, the scientific literature on the subject, over the last 20 years, has been reviewed. First, the most relevant ecological, morphological and chemical mechanisms induced by river flow fluctuations are described from a process-based perspective. The role of flow variability is discussed for the processes that affect the recruitment of vegetation, the vegetation during its adult life, and the morphological and nutrient dynamics occurring in the riparian habitat. Particular emphasis has been given to studies that were aimed at quantifying the effect of these processes on vegetation, and at linking them to the statistical characteristics of the river hydrology. Second, the advances made, from a modeling point of view, have been considered and discussed. The main models that have been developed to describe the dynamics of riparian vegetation have been presented. Different modeling approaches have been compared, and the corresponding advantages and drawbacks have been pointed out. Finally, attention has been paid to identifying the processes considered by the models, and these processes have been compared with those that have actually been observed or measured in field/laboratory studies.

  19. Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... In this paper, we present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. ... Keywords: catastrophe theory; complexity theory; disequilibrium; hysteresis; moving attractors

  20. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  1. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  2. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  3. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  4. Improving dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulation of western U.S. rangelands vegetation seasonal phenology and productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. K.; Kim, J. B.; Day, M. A.; Pitts, B.; Drapek, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem process models are increasingly being used in regional assessments to explore potential changes in future vegetation and NPP due to climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model MAPSS-Century 2 (MC2) as one line of evidence for regional climate change vulnerability assessments for the US Forest Service, focusing our fine tuning model calibration from observational sources related to forest vegetation. However, there is much interest in understanding projected changes for arid rangelands in the western US such as grasslands, shrublands, and woodlands. Rangelands provide many ecosystem service benefits and local rural human community sustainability, habitat for threatened and endangered species, and are threatened by annual grass invasion. Past work suggested MC2 performance related to arid rangeland plant functional types (PFT's) was poor, and the model has difficulty distinguishing annual versus perennial grasslands. Our objectives are to increase the model performance for rangeland simulations and explore the potential for splitting the grass plant functional type into annual and perennial. We used the tri-state Blue Mountain Ecoregion as our study area and maps of potential vegetation from interpolated ground data, the National Land Cover Data Database, and ancillary NPP data derived from the MODIS satellite. MC2 historical simulations for the area overestimated woodland occurrence and underestimated shrubland and grassland PFT's. The spatial location of the rangeland PFT's also often did not align well with observational data. While some disagreement may be due to differences in the respective classification rules, the errors are largely linked to MC2's tree and grass biogeography and physiology algorithms. Presently, only grass and forest productivity measures and carbon stocks are used to distinguish PFT's. MC2 grass and tree productivity simulation is problematic, in particular grass seasonal phenology in relation to seasonal patterns

  5. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 2: Model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; Forkel, Matthias; Müller, Christoph; Knauer, Jürgen; von Bloh, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

  6. Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

    2015-01-01

    Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

  7. Increasing biological diversity in a dynamic vegetation model and consequences for simulated response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.

  8. Obtaining a Pragmatic Representation of Fire Disturbance in Dynamic Vegetation Models by Assimilating Earth Observation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantzas, Euripides; Quegan, Shaun

    2015-04-01

    Fire constitutes a violent and unpredictable pathway of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere into the atmosphere. Despite fire emissions being in many biomes of similar magnitude to that of Net Ecosystem Exchange, even the most complex Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) embedded in IPCC General Circulation Models poorly represent fire behavior and dynamics, a fact which still remains understated. As DVMs operate on a deterministic, grid cell-by-grid cell basis they are unable to describe a host of important fire characteristics such as its propagation, magnitude of area burned and stochastic nature. Here we address these issues by describing a model-independent methodology which assimilates Earth Observation (EO) data by employing image analysis techniques and algorithms to offer a realistic fire disturbance regime in a DVM. This novel approach, with minimum model restructuring, manages to retain the Fire Return Interval produced by the model whilst assigning pragmatic characteristics to its fire outputs thus allowing realistic simulations of fire-related processes such as carbon injection into the atmosphere and permafrost degradation. We focus our simulations in the Arctic and specifically Canada and Russia and we offer a snippet of how this approach permits models to engage in post-fire dynamics hitherto absent from any other model regardless of complexity.

  9. Development and validation of a dynamical atmosphere-vegetation-soil HTO transport and OBT formation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ota, Masakazu, E-mail: ohta.masakazu@jaea.go.jp [Research Group for Environmental Science, Division of Environment and Radiation, Nuclear Science and Engineering Directorate, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (Japan); Nagai, Haruyasu [Research Group for Environmental Science, Division of Environment and Radiation, Nuclear Science and Engineering Directorate, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (Japan)

    2011-09-15

    A numerical model simulating transport of tritiated water (HTO) in atmosphere-soil-vegetation system, and, accumulation of organically bound tritium (OBT) in vegetative leaves was developed. Characteristic of the model is, for calculating tritium transport, it incorporates a dynamical atmosphere-soil-vegetation model (SOLVEG-II) that calculates transport of heat and water, and, exchange of CO{sub 2}. The processes included for calculating tissue free water tritium (TFWT) in leaves are HTO exchange between canopy air and leaf cellular water, root uptake of aqueous HTO in soil, photosynthetic assimilation of TFWT into OBT, and, TFWT formation from OBT through respiration. Tritium fluxes at the last two processes are input to a carbohydrate compartment model in leaves that calculates OBT translocation from leaves and allocation in them, by using photosynthesis and respiration rate in leaves. The developed model was then validated through a simulation of an existing experiment of acute exposure of grape plants to atmospheric HTO. Calculated TFWT concentration in leaves increased soon after the start of HTO exposure, reaching to equilibrium with the atmospheric HTO within a few hours, and then rapidly decreased after the end of the exposure. Calculated non-exchangeable OBT amount in leaves linearly increased during the exposure, and after the exposure, rapidly decreased in daytime, and, moderately nighttime. These variations in the calculated TFWT concentrations and OBT amounts, each mainly controlled by HTO exchange between canopy air and leaf cellular water and by carbohydrates translocation from leaves, fairly agreed with the observations within average errors of a factor of two. - Highlights: > TFWT retention and OBT formation in leaves were modeled > The model fairly well calculates TFWT concentration after an acute HTO exposure > The model well assesses OBT formation and attenuation of OBT amount in leaves.

  10. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-08-01

    Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled

  11. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  12. Evaluation of the New Dynamic Global Vegetation Model in CAS-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jiawen; Zeng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Minghua; Dai, Yongjiu; Ji, Duoying; Li, Fang; Zhang, Qian; Zhang, He; Song, Xiang

    2018-06-01

    In the past several decades, dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been the most widely used and appropriate tool at the global scale to investigate vegetation-climate interactions. At the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a new version of DGVM (IAP-DGVM) has been developed and coupled to the Common Land Model (CoLM) within the framework of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Earth System Model (CAS-ESM). This work reports the performance of IAP-DGVM through comparisons with that of the default DGVM of CoLM (CoLM-DGVM) and observations. With respect to CoLMDGVM, IAP-DGVM simulated fewer tropical trees, more "needleleaf evergreen boreal tree" and "broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub", and a better representation of grasses. These contributed to a more realistic vegetation distribution in IAP-DGVM, including spatial patterns, total areas, and compositions. Moreover, IAP-DGVM also produced more accurate carbon fluxes than CoLM-DGVM when compared with observational estimates. Gross primary productivity and net primary production in IAP-DGVM were in better agreement with observations than those of CoLM-DGVM, and the tropical pattern of fire carbon emissions in IAP-DGVM was much more consistent with the observation than that in CoLM-DGVM. The leaf area index simulated by IAP-DGVM was closer to the observation than that of CoLM-DGVM; however, both simulated values about twice as large as in the observation. This evaluation provides valuable information for the application of CAS-ESM, as well as for other model communities in terms of a comparative benchmark.

  13. Predicting landscape vegetation dynamics using state-and-transition simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colin J. Daniel; Leonardo. Frid

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines how state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to project changes in vegetation over time across a landscape. STSMs are stochastic, empirical simulation models that use an adapted Markov chain approach to predict how vegetation will transition between states over time, typically in response to interactions between succession,...

  14. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  15. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tang

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981–2006 climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981–2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52. The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15% with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt

  16. Implications of introducing realistic fire response traits in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, D.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.

    2013-12-01

    Bark thickness is a key trait protecting woody plants against fire damage, while the ability to resprout is a trait that confers competitive advantage over non-resprouting individuals in fire-prone landscapes. Neither trait is well represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we describe a version of the Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX-Mv1) DGVM that incorporates both of these traits in a realistic way. From a synthesis of a large number of field studies, we show there is considerable innate variability in bark thickness between species within a plant-functional type (PFT). Furthermore, bark thickness is an adaptive trait at ecosystem level, increasing with fire frequency. We use the data to specify the range of bark thicknesses characteristic of each model PFT. We allow this distribution to change dynamically: thinner-barked trees are killed preferentially by fire, shifting the distribution of bark thicknesses represented in a model grid cell. We use the PFT-specific bark-thickness probability range for saplings during re-establishment. Since it is rare to destroy all trees in a grid cell, this treatment results in average bark thickness increasing with fire frequency and intensity. Resprouting is a prominent adaptation of temperate and tropical trees in fire-prone areas. The ability to resprout from above-ground tissue (apical or epicormic resprouting) results in the fastest recovery of total biomass after disturbance; resprouting from basal or below-ground meristems results in slower recovery, while non-resprouting species must regenerate from seed and therefore take the longest time to recover. Our analyses show that resprouting species have thicker bark than non-resprouting species. Investment in resprouting is accompanied by reduced efficacy of regeneration from seed. We introduce resprouting PFTs in LPX-Mv1 by specifying an appropriate range of bark thickness, allowing resprouters to survive fire and regenerate vegetatively in

  17. Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H

    2009-01-01

    Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.

  18. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance : Insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, Patricia; Harden, J. L.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and

  19. The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part I: Improved land surface scheme with vegetation dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Wang, Zhaomin [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre (GEC3), Montreal, QC (Canada); Brovkin, Victor [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-04-01

    The formulation of a new land surface scheme (LSS) with vegetation dynamics for coupling to the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) is presented. This LSS has the following notable improvements over the old version: (1) parameterization of deciduous and evergreen trees by using the model's climatology and the output of the dynamic global vegetation model, VECODE (Brovkin et al. in Ecological Modelling 101:251-261 (1997), Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16(4):1139, (2002)); (2) parameterization of tree leaf budburst and leaf drop by using the model's climatology; (3) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of the grass leaf area index; (4) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of tree leaf area index by using the time-dependent growth of the leaves; (5) calculation of land surface albedo by using vegetation-related parameters, snow depth and the model's climatology. The results show considerable improvement of the model's simulation of the present-day climate as compared with that simulated in the original physically-based MPM. In particular, the strong seasonality of terrestrial vegetation and the associated land surface albedo variations are in good agreement with several satellite observations of these quantities. The application of this new version of the MPM (the ''green'' MPM) to Holocene millennial-scale climate changes is described in a companion paper, Part II. (orig.)

  20. Ages and transit times as important diagnostics of model performance for predicting carbon dynamics in terrestrial vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos-Núñez, Verónika; Richardson, Andrew D.; Sierra, Carlos A.

    2018-03-01

    The global carbon cycle is strongly controlled by the source/sink strength of vegetation as well as the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain this carbon. These dynamics, as well as processes such as the mixing of old and newly fixed carbon, have been studied using ecosystem models, but different assumptions regarding the carbon allocation strategies and other model structures may result in highly divergent model predictions. We assessed the influence of three different carbon allocation schemes on the C cycling in vegetation. First, we described each model with a set of ordinary differential equations. Second, we used published measurements of ecosystem C compartments from the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site to find suitable parameters for the different model structures. And third, we calculated C stocks, release fluxes, radiocarbon values (based on the bomb spike), ages, and transit times. We obtained model simulations in accordance with the available data, but the time series of C in foliage and wood need to be complemented with other ecosystem compartments in order to reduce the high parameter collinearity that we observed, and reduce model equifinality. Although the simulated C stocks in ecosystem compartments were similar, the different model structures resulted in very different predictions of age and transit time distributions. In particular, the inclusion of two storage compartments resulted in the prediction of a system mean age that was 12-20 years older than in the models with one or no storage compartments. The age of carbon in the wood compartment of this model was also distributed towards older ages, whereas fast cycling compartments had an age distribution that did not exceed 5 years. As expected, models with C distributed towards older ages also had longer transit times. These results suggest that ages and transit times, which can be indirectly measured using isotope tracers, serve as important diagnostics of model structure

  1. Integrated modeling of long-term vegetation and hydrologic dynamics in Rocky Mountain watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert Steven Ahl

    2007-01-01

    Changes in forest structure resulting from natural disturbances, or managed treatments, can have negative and long lasting impacts on water resources. To facilitate integrated management of forest and water resources, a System for Long-Term Integrated Management Modeling (SLIMM) was developed. By combining two spatially explicit, continuous time models, vegetation...

  2. A Monte Carlo/response surface strategy for sensitivity analysis: application to a dynamic model of vegetative plant growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Gold, H. J.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1989-01-01

    We describe the application of a strategy for conducting a sensitivity analysis for a complex dynamic model. The procedure involves preliminary screening of parameter sensitivities by numerical estimation of linear sensitivity coefficients, followed by generation of a response surface based on Monte Carlo simulation. Application is to a physiological model of the vegetative growth of soybean plants. The analysis provides insights as to the relative importance of certain physiological processes in controlling plant growth. Advantages and disadvantages of the strategy are discussed.

  3. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

    2013-09-01

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

  4. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wenxin; Miller, Paul A; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model–downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961–1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051–2080), a poleward advance of the forest–tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH 4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH 4 , may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux. (letter)

  5. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  6. Evolution and challenges of dynamic global vegetation models for some aspects of plant physiology and elevated atmospheric CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende, L F C; Arenque, B C; Aidar, S T; Moura, M S B; Von Randow, C; Tourigny, E; Menezes, R S C; Ometto, J P H B

    2016-07-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) simulate surface processes such as the transfer of energy, water, CO2, and momentum between the terrestrial surface and the atmosphere, biogeochemical cycles, carbon assimilation by vegetation, phenology, and land use change in scenarios of varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations. DGVMs increase the complexity and the Earth system representation when they are coupled with atmospheric global circulation models (AGCMs) or climate models. However, plant physiological processes are still a major source of uncertainty in DGVMs. The maximum velocity of carboxylation (Vcmax), for example, has a direct impact over productivity in the models. This parameter is often underestimated or imprecisely defined for the various plant functional types (PFTs) and ecosystems. Vcmax is directly related to photosynthesis acclimation (loss of response to elevated CO2), a widely known phenomenon that usually occurs when plants are subjected to elevated atmospheric CO2 and might affect productivity estimation in DGVMs. Despite this, current models have improved substantially, compared to earlier models which had a rudimentary and very simple representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we describe this evolution through generations of models and the main events that contributed to their improvements until the current state-of-the-art class of models. Also, we describe some main challenges for further improvements to DGVMs.

  7. Remote sensing of vegetation dynamics in drylands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Feng; Brandt, Martin Stefan; Liu, Yi Y.

    2016-01-01

    Monitoring long-term biomass dynamics in drylands is of great importance for many environmental applications including land degradation and global carbon cycle modeling. Biomass has extensively been estimated based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a measure of the vegetatio...

  8. Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.; Wårlind, D.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.; Leadley, P.; Siltberg, J.; Zaehle, S.

    2014-04-01

    The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model uniquely combines an individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics with ecosystem biogeochemical cycling from regional to global scales. We present an updated version that includes plant and soil N dynamics, analysing the implications of accounting for C-N interactions on predictions and performance of the model. Stand structural dynamics and allometric scaling of tree growth suggested by global databases of forest stand structure and development were well reproduced by the model in comparison to an earlier multi-model study. Accounting for N cycle dynamics improved the goodness of fit for broadleaved forests. N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates reduces productivity of cold-climate and dry-climate ecosystems relative to mesic temperate and tropical ecosystems. In a model experiment emulating free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) treatment for forests globally, N limitation associated with low N-mineralisation rates of colder soils reduces CO2 enhancement of net primary production (NPP) for boreal forests, while some temperate and tropical forests exhibit increased NPP enhancement. Under a business-as-usual future climate and emissions scenario, ecosystem C storage globally was projected to increase by ca. 10%; additional N requirements to match this increasing ecosystem C were within the high N supply limit estimated on stoichiometric grounds in an earlier study. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C-N interactions in studies of global terrestrial N cycling, and as a basis for understanding mechanisms on local scales and in different regional contexts.

  9. A dynamic ecosystem process model for understanding interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation responses in the arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Travis, B. J.; Fisher, R. A.; Wilson, C. J.; McDowell, N.

    2010-12-01

    The arctic is expected to play an important role in the Earth’s future climate due to the large carbon stocks that are stored in permafrost and peatlands, a substantial proportion of which may be released to the atmosphere due to permafrost thawing. There may be positive feedbacks of permafrost thawing on plant growth by releasing stored nitrogen and increasing rooting depth; however, vegetation response to other changing variables such as CO2 and temperature can also modify soil hydrology and energy fluxes, leading to either positive or negative feedbacks on permafrost thawing. Disentangling the interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation growth is critical for assessing the potential role of arctic regions on current and future global carbon cycling. We have developed a mechanistic, regional, and spatially explicit dynamic ecosystem process model through the integration of a 3-D soil hydrology and biogeochemistry model (Arctic Hydrology, ARCHY) and a dynamic vegetation model (Ecosystem Demography, ED), to quantify the importance of plant-permafrost interactions to soil and plant carbon storage. This model integrates important processes including photosynthesis, transpiration, respiration, 3-D competition for light, 3-D soil hydrology, energy fluxes (ice melting in the soil and solar radiation interception by canopy), nitrogen cycles (microbial decomposition, nitrogen transportation in soil, passive and active nitrogen uptake by plants), species migration, and drought-related mortality. A sensitivity analysis has been implemented to assess the importance of the hydrological cycle, the nitrogen cycle and energy fluxes in regulating the above and below-ground carbon cycles in arctic regions. Our model can fill an important gap between field and global land surface models for assessing plot and regional level hypotheses in the context of global climate.

  10. Floodplain Vegetation Dynamics Modeling Using Coupled RiPCAS-DFLOW (CoRD): Jemez Canyon, Jemez River, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. J.; Gregory, A. E.; Turner, M. A.; Chaulagain, S.; Cadol, D.; Stone, M. C.; Sheneman, L.

    2017-12-01

    Interactions among precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, runoff and other landscape properties set the stage for complex streamflow regimes and cascading riparian habitat impacts, particularly in semi-arid regions. A consortium of New Mexico, Nevada, and Idaho, funded through NSF-EPSCoR, has promulgated the Western Consortium for Watershed Analysis, Visualization, and Exploration (WC-WAVE). Two WC-WAVE objectives are to advance understanding of hydrologic interactions and ecosystem services, and to develop a virtual watershed platform (VWP) cyber-infrastructure to unite and streamline coordination among teams, databases and modeling tools. To provide proof of concept for the VWP and to study coevolution of riparian habitat mosaics and flood dynamics, the study team selected two models and developed a model coupling system for the Jemez River Canyon, Jemez River, NM. DFLOW is a 2-D hydrodynamic model for steady and unsteady flow conditions; the Riparian Community Alteration and Succession (RipCAS) model, developed using concepts from a vegetation disturbance and succession model (CASiMiR), uses shear stresses and flood depths from DFLOW to evolve riparian vegetation maps with associated roughness. The Coupled RipCAS-DFLOW (CoRD) model allows serial annual time step feedback of changes in peak-flow-derived depth and shear stress and vegetation-derived roughness values. An intuitive command-line interface on a computing cluster is used to call CoRD, which provides commands to calculate boundary conditions, perform multiple file and data format conversions and archive and compress decades of data. Four thirty-year synthetic annual maximum flood scenarios were selected for CoRD simulations, representing a historical wet period (1957-1986) a historical dry period (1986-2015), and flows doubling the historical wet period and halving the historical dry period. Event-driven coupled modeling simulates the spatial distribution of floodplain vegetation community evolution

  11. Model-based prediction of nephropathia epidemica outbreaks based on climatological and vegetation data and bank vole population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haredasht, S Amirpour; Taylor, C J; Maes, P; Verstraeten, W W; Clement, J; Barrios, M; Lagrou, K; Van Ranst, M; Coppin, P; Berckmans, D; Aerts, J-M

    2013-11-01

    could be predicted 3 months ahead with a 34% mean relative prediction error (MRPE). This took into account solely the population dynamics of the carrier species (bank voles). The time series analysis also revealed that climate change, as represented by the vegetation index, changes in forest phenology derived from satellite images and directly measured air temperature, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. NE outbreaks in Belgium were predicted 3 months ahead with a 40% MRPE, based only on the climatological and vegetation data, in this case, without any knowledge of the bank vole's population dynamics. In this research, we demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be predicted using climate and vegetation data or the bank vole's population dynamics, by using dynamic data-based models with time-varying parameters. Such a predictive modelling approach might be used as a step towards the development of new tools for the prevention of future NE outbreaks. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Vegetation and Carbon Cycle Dynamics in the High-Resolution Transient Holocene Simulations Using the MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brovkin, V.; Lorenz, S.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.; Dallmeyer, A.

    2017-12-01

    One of the interesting periods to investigate a climatic role of terrestrial biosphere is the Holocene, when, despite of the relatively steady global climate, the atmospheric CO2 grew by about 20 ppm from 7 kyr BP to pre-industrial. We use a new setup of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model MPI-ESM1 consisting of the latest version of the atmospheric model ECHAM6, including the land surface model JSBACH3 with carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, coupled to the ocean circulation model MPI-OM, which includes the HAMOCC model of ocean biogeochemistry. The model has been run for several simulations over the Holocene period of the last 8000 years under the forcing data sets of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone, as well as land-use changes. In response to this forcing, the land carbon storage increased by about 60 PgC between 8 and 4 kyr BP, stayed relatively constant until 2 kyr BP, and decreased by about 90 PgC by 1850 AD due to land use changes. At 8 kyr BP, vegetation cover was much denser in Africa, mainly due to increased rainfall in response to the orbital forcing. Boreal forests moved northward in both, North America and Eurasia. The boreal forest expansion in North America is much less pronounced than in Eurasia. Simulated physical ocean fields, including surface temperatures and meridional overturning, do not change substantially in the Holocene. Carbonate ion concentration in deep ocean decreases in both, prescribed and interactive CO2simulations. Comparison with available proxies for terrestrial vegetation and for the ocean carbonate chemistry will be presented. Vegetation and soil carbon changes significantly affected atmospheric CO2 during the periods of strong volcanic eruptions. In response to the eruption-caused cooling, the land initially stores more carbon as respiration decreases, but then it releases even more carbon die to productivity decrease. This decadal

  13. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation and fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Ian D. Davies; Michael D. Flannigan; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; T. Scott Rupp

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a major disturbance in most ecosystems worldwide (Crutzen and Goldammer 1993). The interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans, often referred to as the fire regime (Agee 1993; Clark 1993; Swetnam and Baisan 1996; Swetnam 1997), has major effects on dominant vegetation, ecosystem carbon budget, and biodiversity (Gardner et aL...

  14. Modelling carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems in Western Europe using the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model: evaluation against eddy covariance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; François, Louis; Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Minet, Julien; Tychon, Bernard; Heinesch, Bernard; Horemans, Joanna; Deckmyn, Gaby

    2015-04-01

    Eddy covariance measurements are an essential resource to understand how ecosystem carbon fluxes react in response to climate change, and to help to evaluate and validate the performance of land surface and vegetation models at regional and global scale. In the framework of the MASC project (« Modelling and Assessing Surface Change impacts on Belgian and Western European climate »), vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes of forest and grassland ecosystems simulated by the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) are evaluated and validated by comparison of the model predictions with eddy covariance data. Here carbon fluxes (e.g. net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RECO)) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated with the CARAIB model are compared with the fluxes measured at several eddy covariance flux tower sites in Belgium and Western Europe, chosen from the FLUXNET global network (http://fluxnet.ornl.gov/). CARAIB is forced either with surface atmospheric variables derived from the global CRU climatology, or with in situ meteorological data. Several tree (e.g. Pinus sylvestris, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies) and grass species (e.g. Poaceae, Asteraceae) are simulated, depending on the species encountered on the studied sites. The aim of our work is to assess the model ability to reproduce the daily, seasonal and interannual variablility of carbon fluxes and the carbon dynamics of forest and grassland ecosystems in Belgium and Western Europe.

  15. Scaling of Sediment Dynamics in a Reach-Scale Laboratory Model of a Sand-Bed Stream with Riparian Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorrick, S.; Rodriguez, J. F.

    2011-12-01

    A movable bed physical model was designed in a laboratory flume to simulate both bed and suspended load transport in a mildly sinuous sand-bed stream. Model simulations investigated the impact of different vegetation arrangements along the outer bank to evaluate rehabilitation options. Preserving similitude in the 1:16 laboratory model was very important. In this presentation the scaling approach, as well as the successes and challenges of the strategy are outlined. Firstly a near-bankfull flow event was chosen for laboratory simulation. In nature, bankfull events at the field site deposit new in-channel features but cause only small amounts of bank erosion. Thus the fixed banks in the model were not a drastic simplification. Next, and as in other studies, the flow velocity and turbulence measurements were collected in separate fixed bed experiments. The scaling of flow in these experiments was simply maintained by matching the Froude number and roughness levels. The subsequent movable bed experiments were then conducted under similar hydrodynamic conditions. In nature, the sand-bed stream is fairly typical; in high flows most sediment transport occurs in suspension and migrating dunes cover the bed. To achieve similar dynamics in the model equivalent values of the dimensionless bed shear stress and the particle Reynolds number were important. Close values of the two dimensionless numbers were achieved with lightweight sediments (R=0.3) including coal and apricot pips with a particle size distribution similar to that of the field site. Overall the moveable bed experiments were able to replicate the dominant sediment dynamics present in the stream during a bankfull flow and yielded relevant information for the analysis of the effects of riparian vegetation. There was a potential conflict in the strategy, in that grain roughness was exaggerated with respect to nature. The advantage of this strategy is that although grain roughness is exaggerated, the similarity of

  16. Simulating boreal forest carbon dynamics after stand-replacing fire disturbance: insights from a global process-based vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Luyssaert, S.; Cadule, P.; Harden, J.; Randerson, J.; Bellassen, V.; Wang, T.; Piao, S.L.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.

    2013-01-01

    Stand-replacing fires are the dominant fire type in North American boreal forests. They leave a historical legacy of a mosaic landscape of different aged forest cohorts. This forest age dynamics must be included in vegetation models to accurately quantify the role of fire in the historical and current regional forest carbon balance. The present study adapted the global process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the CO2 emissions from boreal forest fire and the subsequent recovery after a stand-replacing fire; the model represents postfire new cohort establishment, forest stand structure and the self-thinning process. Simulation results are evaluated against observations of three clusters of postfire forest chronosequences in Canada and Alaska. The variables evaluated include: fire carbon emissions, CO2 fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration and net ecosystem exchange), leaf area index, and biometric measurements (aboveground biomass carbon, forest floor carbon, woody debris carbon, stand individual density, stand basal area, and mean diameter at breast height). When forced by local climate and the atmospheric CO2 history at each chronosequence site, the model simulations generally match the observed CO2 fluxes and carbon stock data well, with model-measurement mean square root of deviation comparable with the measurement accuracy (for CO2 flux ~100 g C m−2 yr−1, for biomass carbon ~1000 g C m−2 and for soil carbon ~2000 g C m−2). We find that the current postfire forest carbon sink at the evaluation sites, as observed by chronosequence methods, is mainly due to a combination of historical CO2 increase and forest succession. Climate change and variability during this period offsets some of these expected carbon gains. The negative impacts of climate were a likely consequence of increasing water stress caused by significant temperature increases that were not matched by concurrent increases in precipitation. Our simulation

  17. A dynamic growth model of vegetative soya bean plants: model structure and behaviour under varying root temperature and nitrogen concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J. T.; Wilkerson, G. G.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Gold, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation model of vegetative growth of the soya bean plant (Glycine max (L.) Merrill cv. Ransom') was developed to account for plant growth in a phytotron system under variation of root temperature and nitrogen concentration in nutrient solution. The model was tested by comparing model outputs with data from four different experiments. Model predictions agreed fairly well with measured plant performance over a wide range of root temperatures and over a range of nitrogen concentrations in nutrient solution between 0.5 and 10.0 mmol NO3- in the phytotron environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the model was most sensitive to changes in parameters relating to carbohydrate concentration in the plant and nitrogen uptake rate.

  18. Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

    2017-08-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

  19. Calibration of transfer functions between phytolith, vegetation and climate for integration of grassland dynamics in vegetation models. Application to a 50,000 yr crater lake core in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bremond, L.; Alexandre, A.; Hely, C.; Vincens, A.; Williamson, D.; Guiot, J.

    2004-12-01

    Global vegetation models provide a way to translate the outputs from climate models into maps of potential vegetation distribution for present, past and future. Validation of these models goes through the comparison between model outputs and vegetation proxies for well constrained past climatic periods. Grass-dominated biomes are widespread and numerous. This diversity is hardly mirrored by common proxies such as pollen, charcoal or carbon isotopes. Phytoliths are amorphous silica that precipitate in and/or between living plant cells. They are commonly used to trace grasslands dynamics. However, calibration between phytolith assemblages, vegetation, and climate parameters are scarce. This work introduces transfer functions between phytolith indices, inter-tropical grassland physiognomy, and bio-climatic data that will be available for model/data comparisons. The Iph phytolith index discriminates tall from short grass savannas in West Africa. A transfer function allows to estimate evapo-transpiration AET/PET. The Ic phytolith index accurately estimates the proportion of Pooideae and Panicoideae grass sub-families, and potentially the C4/C3 grass dominance on East African mountains. The D/P index appears as a good proxy of Leaf Area Index (LAI) in tropical areas. These environmental parameters are commonly used as vegetation model outputs, but have been, up to now, hardly estimated by vegetation proxies. These transfer functions are applied to a 50,000 yr phytolith sequence from a crater lake (9°S; 33°E Tanzania). The record is compared to the pollen vegetation reconstruction and confronted to simulations of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model (Stitch et. al, 2003).

  20. Modeling distribution of Schinus molle L. in the Brazilian Pampa: insights on vegetation dynamics and conservation of the biome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.P.M. Lemos

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Natural establishment of forests in the Brazilian Pampa biome should occur due to soil, hydrology and climate conditions, although no significant forest expansion over grassland has been noticed, precluded mainly by human interference and lack of environmental management. In this study, we used niche-modeling distribution of the tree species Schinus molle L. based on climatic variables to access the vegetation dynamics of the Brazilian Pampa and to develop strategies that assure the conservation of this biome, concerning both grassland and forest formations. Here we show that a large area of the Brazilian Pampa is suitable for expansion of S. molle populations, supporting the forest expansion over grassland as a natural process in this biome. We propose that the current absence of tree species expansion over the grassland in these areas is a result of the resilience of the grassland and of human interferences through expansion of agriculture, ranching and forestry with exotic species. Therefore, conservationist actions should focus on establishing preservation unities that include forest populations and grassland, while environmental management should be applied just in farming areas with historical human interference. Such actions will respect the ecological dynamics of the Pampa and value the forest formations in this grassland-dominated environment.

  1. Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2018-02-01

    Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.

  2. Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Epstein, Howard E; Box, Elgene O; Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goswami, Santonu; Iversen, Colleen M; Kattge, Jens; Norby, Richard J; van Bodegom, Peter M; Xu, Xiaofeng

    2014-07-01

    Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation. Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be

  3. Post-fire vegetation dynamics in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouveia, C.; Dacamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2009-04-01

    analysed for some selected areas and a regression model of post-fire recovery was fitted to the recorded values of NDVI. The model allowed characterising the dynamics of the regeneration process. It was found that recovery rates depend on geographical location, fire intensity/severity and type of vegetation cover. Díaz-Delgado, R., Salvador, R. and Pons, X., 1998: Monitoring of plant community regeneration after fire by remote sensing. In L. Traboud (Ed.), Fire management and landscape ecology (pp. 315-324). International Association of Wildland Fire, Fairfield, WA. Pausas, G.J. and Vallejo, V.R., 1999: The role of fire in European Mediterranean Ecosystems. In: E. Chuvieco (Ed.), Remote sensing of large wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin (pp. 3-16). Springer-Verlag. Trigo R.M., Pereira J.M.C., Pereira M.G., Mota B., Calado M.T., DaCamara C.C., Santo F.E., 2006: Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. International Journal of Climatology 26 (13): 1741-1757 NOV 15 2006.

  4. Effects of Telecoupling on Global Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viña, A.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    With the ever increasing trend in telecoupling processes, such as international trade, all countries around the world are becoming more interdependent. However, the effects of this growing interdependence on vegetation (e.g., shifts in the geographic extent and distribution) remain unknown even though vegetation dynamics are crucially important for food production, carbon sequestration, provision of other ecosystem services, and biodiversity conservation. In this study we evaluate the effects of international trade on the spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation at national and global scales, using vegetation index imagery collected over more than three decades by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor series together with concurrent national and international data on international trade (and its associated movement of people, goods, services and information). The spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation are obtained using the scale of fluctuation technique, which is based on the decomposition of the AVHRR image time series to obtain information on its spatial dependence structure over time. Similar to the correlation length, the scale of fluctuation corresponds to the range over which fluctuations in the vegetation index are spatially correlated. Results indicate that global vegetation has changed drastically over the last three decades. These changes are not uniform across space, with hotspots in active trading countries. This study not only has direct implications for understanding global vegetation dynamics, but also sheds important insights on the complexity of human-nature interactions across telecoupled systems.

  5. Representing the effects of alpine grassland vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics by ecosystem models applied to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, S.; Li, N.; Xiang, B.; Wang, X.; Ye, B.; McGuire, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Soil surface temperature is a critical boundary condition for the simulation of soil temperature by environmental models. It is influenced by atmospheric and soil conditions and by vegetation cover. In sophisticated land surface models, it is simulated iteratively by solving surface energy budget equations. In ecosystem, permafrost, and hydrology models, the consideration of soil surface temperature is generally simple. In this study, we developed a methodology for representing the effects of vegetation cover and atmospheric factors on the estimation of soil surface temperature for alpine grassland ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our approach integrated measurements from meteorological stations with simulations from a sophisticated land surface model to develop an equation set for estimating soil surface temperature. After implementing this equation set into an ecosystem model and evaluating the performance of the ecosystem model in simulating soil temperature at different depths in the soil profile, we applied the model to simulate interactions among vegetation cover, freeze-thaw cycles, and soil erosion to demonstrate potential applications made possible through the implementation of the methodology developed in this study. Results showed that (1) to properly estimate daily soil surface temperature, algorithms should use air temperature, downward solar radiation, and vegetation cover as independent variables; (2) the equation set developed in this study performed better than soil surface temperature algorithms used in other models; and (3) the ecosystem model performed well in simulating soil temperature throughout the soil profile using the equation set developed in this study. Our application of the model indicates that the representation in ecosystem models of the effects of vegetation cover on the simulation of soil thermal dynamics has the potential to substantially improve our understanding of the vulnerability of alpine grassland ecosystems to

  6. Contribution of Dynamic Vegetation Phenology to Decadal Climate Predictability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiss, M.; Miller, P.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Noije, van T.; Stefanescu, S.; Haarsma, R.; Ulft, van L.H.; Hazeleger, W.; Sager, Le P.; Smith, B.; Schurgers, G.

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the impact of coupling and initializing the leaf area index from the dynamic vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) is analyzed on skill of decadal predictions in the fully coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model, the European Consortium Earth

  7. Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Murray

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995 and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

  8. Advances in Remote Sensing for Vegetation Dynamics and Agricultural Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Compton; Puma, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Spaceborne remote sensing has led to great advances in the global monitoring of vegetation. For example, the NASA Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group has developed widely used datasets from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors as well as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) map imagery and normalized difference vegetation index datasets. These data are valuable for analyzing vegetation trends and variability at the regional and global levels. Numerous studies have investigated such trends and variability for both natural vegetation (e.g., re-greening of the Sahel, shifts in the Eurasian boreal forest, Amazonian drought sensitivity) and crops (e.g., impacts of extremes on agricultural production). Here, a critical overview is presented on recent developments and opportunities in the use of remote sensing for monitoring vegetation and crop dynamics.

  9. Changes in the structure and function of northern Alaskan ecosystems when considering variable leaf-out times across groupings of species in a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euskirchen, E.S.; Carman, T.B.; McGuire, Anthony David

    2013-01-01

    The phenology of arctic ecosystems is driven primarily by abiotic forces, with temperature acting as the main determinant of growing season onset and leaf budburst in the spring. However, while the plant species in arctic ecosystems require differing amounts of accumulated heat for leaf-out, dynamic vegetation models simulated over regional to global scales typically assume some average leaf-out for all of the species within an ecosystem. Here, we make use of air temperature records and observations of spring leaf phenology collected across dominant groupings of species (dwarf birch shrubs, willow shrubs, other deciduous shrubs, grasses, sedges, and forbs) in arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska. We then parameterize a dynamic vegetation model based on these data for four types of tundra ecosystems (heath tundra, shrub tundra, wet sedge tundra, and tussock tundra), as well as ecotonal boreal white spruce forest, and perform model simulations for the years 1970 -2100. Over the course of the model simulations, we found changes in ecosystem composition under this new phenology algorithm compared to simulations with the previous phenology algorithm. These changes were the result of the differential timing of leaf-out, as well as the ability for the groupings of species to compete for nitrogen and light availability. Regionally, there were differences in the trends of the carbon pools and fluxes between the new phenology algorithm and the previous phenology algorithm, although these differences depended on the future climate scenario. These findings indicate the importance of leaf phenology data collection by species and across the various ecosystem types within the highly heterogeneous Arctic landscape, and that dynamic vegetation models should consider variation in leaf-out by groupings of species within these ecosystems to make more accurate projections of future plant distributions and carbon cycling in Arctic regions.

  10. Canopy Modeling of Aquatic Vegetation: Construction of Submerged Vegetation Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Z.; Zhou, G.

    2018-04-01

    The unique spectral characteristics of submerged vegetation in wetlands determine that the conventional terrestrial vegetation index cannot be directly employed to species identification and parameter inversion of submerged vegetation. Based on the Aquatic Vegetation Radiative Transfer model (AVRT), this paper attempts to construct an index suitable for submerged vegetation, the model simulated data and a scene of Sentinel-2A image in Taihu Lake, China are utilized for assessing the performance of the newly constructed indices and the existent vegetation indices. The results show that the angle index composed by 525 nm, 555 nm and 670 nm can resist the effects of water columns and is more sensitive to vegetation parameters such as LAI. Furthermore, it makes a well discrimination between submerged vegetation and water bodies in the satellite data. We hope that the new index will provide a theoretical basis for future research.

  11. Water dynamics of vegetable using radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko

    2000-01-01

    Neutral ray is specifically adsorbed and scattered by hydrogen, which is construction element of water. We applied nondestructive visualization of water dynamics in vegetable using neutral ray. The neutron ray was produced by JRR-3M of JAERI. Water dynamics of epigeal part of vegetable, tree, seed, root and soil near root were observed. The distribution and behavior of water were seen by image. For examples, the dry process of cedar, water adsorption process of seed of broad beam, corn, morning glory, rice and wheat. The growing process of root in the soil was analyzed by CT images that constructed three-dimensional image. Water image of root-soil system made clear water dynamics of the optional site near root. The distribution of water in the cut carnation was observed before and after dry treatment. The change of distribution of water was observed. (S.Y.)

  12. Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise, Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.

    2006-02-01

    Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.

  13. Taking off the training wheels: the properties of a dynamic vegetation model without climate envelopes, CLM4.5(ED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, R. A.; Muszala, S.; Verteinstein, M.; Lawrence, P.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Holm, J.; Rogers, B. M.; Spessa, A.; Lawrence, D.; Bonan, G.

    2015-11-01

    We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties using the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leaf trait database. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked to each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments and the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.

  14. The Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM: a diverse approach to representing terrestrial biogeography and biogeochemistry based on plant functional trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pavlick

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models typically abstract the immense diversity of vegetation forms and functioning into a relatively small set of predefined semi-empirical plant functional types (PFTs. There is growing evidence, however, from the field ecology community as well as from modelling studies that current PFT schemes may not adequately represent the observed variations in plant functional traits and their effect on ecosystem functioning. In this paper, we introduce the Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM as a new approach to terrestrial biosphere modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity than traditional modelling approaches based on a small number of fixed PFTs. JeDi-DGVM simulates the performance of a large number of randomly generated plant growth strategies, each defined by a set of 15 trait parameters which characterize various aspects of plant functioning including carbon allocation, ecophysiology and phenology. Each trait parameter is involved in one or more functional trade-offs. These trade-offs ultimately determine whether a strategy is able to survive under the climatic conditions in a given model grid cell and its performance relative to the other strategies. The biogeochemical fluxes and land surface properties of the individual strategies are aggregated to the grid-cell scale using a mass-based weighting scheme. We evaluate the simulated global biogeochemical patterns against a variety of field and satellite-based observations following a protocol established by the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project. The land surface fluxes and vegetation structural properties are reasonably well simulated by JeDi-DGVM, and compare favourably with other state-of-the-art global vegetation models. We also evaluate the simulated patterns of functional diversity and the sensitivity of the JeDi-DGVM modelling approach to the number of sampled strategies. Altogether, the results demonstrate the

  15. Dynamical effects of vegetation on the 2003 summer heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stéfanon, M.

    2012-04-01

    Dynamical effects of vegetation on the 2003 summer heat waves Marc Stéfanon(1), Philippe Drobinski(1), Fabio D'Andrea(1), Nathalie de Noblet(2) (1) IPSL/LMD, France; (2) IPSL/LSCE, France The land surface model (LSM) in regional climate models (RCMs) plays a key role in energy and water exchanges between land and atmosphere. The vegetation can affect these exchanges through physical, biophysical and bio-geophysical mechanisms. It participates to evapo-transpiration process which determines the partitioning of net radiation between sensible and latent heat flux, through water evaporation from soil throughout the entire root system. For seasonal timescale leaf cover change induced leaf-area index (LAI) and albedo changes, impacting the Earth's radiative balance. In addition, atmospheric chemistry and carbon concentration has a direct effect on plant stomatal structure, the main exchange interface with the atmosphere. Therefore the surface energy balance is intimately linked to the carbon cycle and vegetation conditions and an accurate representation of the Earth's surface is required to improve the performance of RCMs. It is even more crucial for extreme events as heat waves and droughts which display highly nonlinear behaviour. If triggering of heat waves is determined by the large scale, local coupled processes over land can amplify or inhibit heat trough several feedback mechanism. One set of two simulation has been conducted with WRF, using different LSMs. They aim to study drought and vegetation effect on the dynamical and hydrological processes controlling the occurrence and life cycle of heat waves In the MORCE plateform, the dynamical global vegetation model (DGVM) ORCHIDEE is implemented in the atmospheric module WRF. ORCHIDEE is based on three different modules. The first module, called SECHIBA, describes the fast processes such as exchanges of energy and water between the atmosphere and the biosphere, and the soil water budget. The phenology and carbon

  16. Vegetation dynamics induced by phreatophyte--aquifer interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridolfi, Luca; D'Odorico, Paolo; Laio, Francesco

    2007-09-21

    The dynamics of phreatophyte vegetation are strongly coupled to those of the shallow phreatic aquifers from which phreatophytes extract water. Vegetation is able to influence the depth of the water table, which, in turn, can induce stress in vegetation. These interactions are likely to affect the composition and structure of phreatophyte plant communities, as well as their successional dynamics. Despite the environmental and economical value of many wetland plant ecosystems around the world, the impact of vegetation-water table interactions on ecosystem succession and interspecies competition in phreatophyte plant communities remains poorly understood. This study develops a minimalistic modelling framework to investigate the dynamics of two phreatophyte species, and their interactions with the water table. In spite of its simplicity, the model exhibits a remarkable variety of dynamical behaviors, especially when the water table depth is forced by external drivers. It is shown that, even when one of the two species is dominant with respect to the other, these two species can coexist showing periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic dynamics. Moreover, in the presence of a random environmental forcing, noise-induced coexistence may emerge.

  17. Using a dynamic vegetation model for future projections of crop yields: application to Belgium in the framework of the VOTES and MASC projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemin, Ingrid; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Beckers, Veronique; Debusscher, Bos; Tychon, Bernard; Hambuckers, Alain; François, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Dynamic vegetation models (DVM) were initially designed to describe the dynamics of natural ecosystems as a function of climate and soil, to study the role of the vegetation in the carbon cycle. These models are now directly coupled with climate models in order to evaluate feedbacks between vegetation and climate. But DVM characteristics allow numerous other applications, leading to amelioration of some of their modules (e.g., evaluating sensitivity of the hydrological module to land surface changes) and developments (e.g., coupling with other models like agent-based models), to be used in ecosystem management and land use planning studies. It is in this dynamic context about DVMs that we have adapted the CARAIB (CARbon Assimilation In the Biosphere) model. One of the main improvements is the implementation of a crop module, allowing the assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields. We try to validate this module at different scales: - from the plot level, with the use of eddy-covariance data from agricultural sites in the FLUXNET network, such as Lonzée (Belgium) or other Western European sites (Grignon, Dijkgraaf,…), - to the country level, for which we compare the crop yield calculated by CARAIB to the crop yield statistics for Belgium and for different agricultural regions of the country. Another challenge for the CARAIB DVM was to deal with the landscape dynamics, which is not directly possible due to the lack of consideration of anthropogenic factors in the system. In the framework of the VOTES and the MASC projects, CARAIB is coupled with an agent-based model (ABM), representing the societal component of the system. This coupled module allows the use of climate and socio-economic scenarios, particularly interesting for studies which aim at ensuring a sustainable approach. This module has particularly been exploited in the VOTES project, where the objective was to provide a social, biophysical and economic assessment of the ecosystem services in

  18. Comparison of water-use efficiency estimates based on tree-ring carbon isotopes with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saurer, Matthias; Renato, Spahni; Fortunat, Joos; David, Frank; Kerstin, Treydte; Rolf, Siegwolf

    2015-04-01

    Tree-ring d13C-based estimates of intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE, reflecting the ratio of assimilation A to stomatal conductance gs) generally show a strong increase during the industrial period, likely associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2. However, it is not clear, first, if tree-ring d13C-derived iWUE-values indeed reflect actual plant and ecosystem-scale variability in fluxes and, second, what physiological changes were the drivers of the observed iWUE increase, changes in A or gs or both. To address these questions, we used a complex dynamic vegetation model (LPX) that combines process-based vegetation dynamics with land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange. The analysis was conducted for three functional types, representing conifers, oaks, larch, and various sites in Europe, where tree-ring isotope data are available. The increase in iWUE over the 20th century was comparable in LPX-simulations as in tree-ring-estimates, strengthening confidence in these results. Furthermore, the results from the LPX model suggest that the cause of the iWUE increase was reduced stomatal conductance during recent decades rather than increased assimilation. High-frequency variation reflects the influence of climate, like for example the 1976 summer drought, resulting in strongly reduced A and g in the model, particularly for oak.

  19. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  20. Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Epstein, H.E.; Box, E.O.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Goswami, S.; Iversen, C.M.; Kattge, J.; Norby, R.J.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Xu, X.

    2014-01-01

    Background Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the

  1. Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlström, Anders; Smith, Benjamin; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi; Arneth, Almut

    2015-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO 2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand

  2. Calibration of the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax using data mining techniques and ecophysiological data from the Brazilian semiarid region, for use in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. F. C. Rezende

    Full Text Available Abstract The semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, the Caatinga, is extremely important due to its biodiversity and endemism. Measurements of plant physiology are crucial to the calibration of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs that are currently used to simulate the responses of vegetation in face of global changes. In a field work realized in an area of preserved Caatinga forest located in Petrolina, Pernambuco, measurements of carbon assimilation (in response to light and CO2 were performed on 11 individuals of Poincianella microphylla, a native species that is abundant in this region. These data were used to calibrate the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax used in the INLAND model. The calibration techniques used were Multiple Linear Regression (MLR, and data mining techniques as the Classification And Regression Tree (CART and K-MEANS. The results were compared to the UNCALIBRATED model. It was found that simulated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP reached 72% of observed GPP when using the calibrated Vcmax values, whereas the UNCALIBRATED approach accounted for 42% of observed GPP. Thus, this work shows the benefits of calibrating DGVMs using field ecophysiological measurements, especially in areas where field data is scarce or non-existent, such as in the Caatinga.

  3. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  4. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

    2013-12-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and

  5. Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions

  6. An NDVI-Based Vegetation Phenology Is Improved to be More Consistent with Photosynthesis Dynamics through Applying a Light Use Efficiency Model over Boreal High-Latitude Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siheng Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing of high-latitude forests phenology is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and the response of vegetation to climate change. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI has long been used to study boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF and deciduous broadleaf forests. However, the NDVI-based growing season is generally reported to be longer than that based on gross primary production (GPP, which can be attributed to the difference between greenness and photosynthesis. Instead of introducing environmental factors such as land surface or air temperature like previous studies, this study attempts to make VI-based phenology more consistent with photosynthesis dynamics through applying a light use efficiency model. NDVI (MOD13C2 was used as a proxy for both fractional of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR and light use efficiency at seasonal time scale. Results show that VI-based phenology is improved towards tracking seasonal GPP changes more precisely after applying the light use efficiency model compared to raw NDVI or APAR, especially over ENF.

  7. Simulating sub-Milankovitch climate variations associated with vegetation dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tuenter

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability at sub-Milankovitch periods (between 2 and 15 kyr is studied in a set of transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere/ocean/vegetation model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2. Focus is on the region influenced by the African and Asian summer monsoon. Pronounced variations at periods of about 10 kyr (Asia and Africa and about 5 kyr (Asia are found in the monsoonal runoff in response to the precessional forcing. In the model this is due to the following mechanism. For low summer insolation (precession maximum precipitation is low and desert expands at the expense of grass, while for high insolation (precession minimum precipitation is high and the tree fraction increases also reducing the grass fraction. This induces sub-Milankovitch variations in the grass fraction and associated variations in the water holding capacity of the soil. The runoff does not exhibit sub-Milankovitch variability when vegetation is kept fixed. High-latitude vegetation also exhibits sub-Milankovitch variability under both obliquity and precessional forcing. We thus hypothesize that sub-Milankovitch variability can occur due to the dynamic response of the vegetation. However, this mechanism should be further tested with more sophisticated climate/vegetation models.

  8. Mediterranean evergreen vegetation dynamics : detection and modelling of forest and shrub-land development in the Peyne catchment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijland, W.

    2011-01-01

    Vegetation development in Mediterranean landscapes is often a slow process. The typical Mediterranean climate -with long dry periods in summer, mild winters and concentrated rainfall events in spring and autumn- is an important constraint on growth, enhanced by the often marginal and degraded soil

  9. Evolutionarily stable strategy of carbon and nitrogen investments in forest leaves and its application in vegetation dynamic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, E.; Farrior, C.; Dybzinski, R.; Pacala, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf lifespan (LL) are two highly correlated plant traits that are key to plant physiological and ecological properties. Usually, low LMA means short LL, high nitrogen (N) content per unit mass, and fast turnover rates of nutrients; high LMA leads to long LL, low N content, and slow turnover rates. Deciduous trees with low LMA and short lifespan leaves have low carbon cost but high nitrogen demand; and evergreen trees, with high LMA and long lifespan leaves, have high carbon cost but low nitrogen demand. These relationships lead to: 1) evergreen trees have higher leaf area index than deciduous trees; 2) evergreen trees' carbon use efficiency is lower than the deciduous trees' because of their thick leaves and therefore high maintenance respiration; 3) the advantage of evergreens trees brought by their extra leaves over deciduous trees diminishes with increase N in ecosystem. These facts determine who will win when trees compete with each other in a N-limited ecosystem. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model according to the relationships between LMA, LL, leaf nitrogen, and leaf building and maintenance cost, where LMA is the fundamental variable determining the other three. We analyze the evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) of LMA with this mathematical model by examining the benefits of carbon and nitrogen investments to leaves in ecosystems with different N. The model shows the ESS converges to low LMA at high N and high LMA at low N. At intermediate N, there are two ESSs at low and high ends of LMA, respectively. The ESS also leads to low forest productivity by outcompeting the possible high productive strategies. We design a simulation scheme in an individual-based competition model (LM3-PPA) to simulate forest dynamics as results of the competition between deciduous and evergreen trees in three different biomes, which are temperate deciduous forest, deciduous-evergreen mixed forest, and boreal evergreen forest. The

  10. Oscillations in a simple climate–vegetation model

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    J. Rombouts

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate–vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate–vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.

  11. Oscillations in a simple climate-vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rombouts, J.; Ghil, M.

    2015-05-01

    We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate-vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate-vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.

  12. Study on a Dynamic Vegetation Model for Simulating Land Surface Flux Exchanges at Lien-Hua-Chih Flux Observation Site in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, T. Y.; Li, M. H.; Chen, Y. Y.; Ryder, J.; McGrath, M.; Otto, J.; Naudts, K.; Luyssaert, S.; MacBean, N.; Bastrikov, V.

    2016-12-01

    Dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) is a state of art land surface component of the IPSL (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace) Earth System Model. It has been used world-wide to investigate variations of water, carbon, and energy exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study we assessed the applicability of using ORCHIDEE-CAN, a new feature with 3-D CANopy structure (Naudts et al., 2015; Ryder et al., 2016), to simulate surface fluxes measured at tower-based eddy covariance fluxes at the Lien-Hua-Chih experimental watershed in Taiwan. The atmospheric forcing including radiation, air temperature, wind speed, and the dynamics of vertical canopy structure for driving the model were obtained from the observations site. Suitable combinations of default plant function types were examined to meet in-situ observations of soil moisture and leaf area index from 2009 to 2013. The simulated top layer soil moisture was ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 and total leaf area was ranging from 2.2 to 4.4, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was performed to investigate the sensitive of model parameters and model skills of ORCHIDEE-CAN on capturing seasonal variations of surface fluxes. The most sensitive parameters were suggested and calibrated by an automatic data assimilation tool ORCHDAS (ORCHIDEE Data Assimilation Systems; http://orchidas.lsce.ipsl.fr/). Latent heat, sensible heat, and carbon fluxes simulated by the model were compared with long-term observations at the site. ORCHIDEE-CAN by making use of calibrated surface parameters was used to study variations of land-atmosphere interactions on a variety of temporal scale in associations with changes in both land and atmospheric conditions. Ref: Naudts, K., et al.,: A vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE (SVN r2290) and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2035-2065, doi:10.5194/gmd-8

  13. Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).

  14. Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Wei

    2018-02-01

    Several modelling studies reported elevated carbon emissions from historical land use change (ELUC) by including bidirectional transitions on the sub-grid scale (termed gross land use change), dominated by shifting cultivation and other land turnover processes. However, most dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) that have implemented gross land use change either do not account for sub-grid secondary lands, or often have only one single secondary land tile over a model grid cell and thus cannot account for various rotation lengths in shifting cultivation and associated secondary forest age dynamics. Therefore, it remains uncertain how realistic the past ELUC estimations are and how estimated ELUC will differ between the two modelling approaches with and without multiple sub-grid secondary land cohorts - in particular secondary forest cohorts. Here we investigated historical ELUC over 1501-2005 by including sub-grid forest age dynamics in a DGVM. We run two simulations, one with no secondary forests (Sageless) and the other with sub-grid secondary forests of six age classes whose demography is driven by historical land use change (Sage). Estimated global ELUC for 1501-2005 is 176 Pg C in Sage compared to 197 Pg C in Sageless. The lower ELUC values in Sage arise mainly from shifting cultivation in the tropics under an assumed constant rotation length of 15 years, being 27 Pg C in Sage in contrast to 46 Pg C in Sageless. Estimated cumulative ELUC values from wood harvest in the Sage simulation (31 Pg C) are however slightly higher than Sageless (27 Pg C) when the model is forced by reconstructed harvested areas because secondary forests targeted in Sage for harvest priority are insufficient to meet the prescribed harvest area, leading to wood harvest being dominated by old primary forests. An alternative approach to quantify wood harvest ELUC, i.e. always harvesting the close-to-mature forests in both Sageless and Sage, yields similar values of 33 Pg C by both

  15. Vegetation - Herbivory Dynamics in Rangeland Ecosystems: Geospatial Modeling for Savanna and Wildlife Conservation in California and Namibia

    OpenAIRE

    Tsalyuk, Miriam

    2014-01-01

    Rangelands cover about half of Earth's land surface, encompass considerable biodiversity, and provide pivotal ecosystem services. However, rangelands across the globe face degradation due to changes in climate, land use, and management. Moreover, since herbivory is fundamental to rangeland ecosystem dynamics, shifts in the distribution of herbivores lead to overgrazing and desertification. To better understand, predict, and prevent changes on rangelands it is important to monitor these landsc...

  16. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  17. Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

    2016-02-01

    Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer

  18. Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

    2015-12-01

    Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

  19. Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Sensitivity of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilker, Thomas; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Tucker, Compton J.; Hall, Forrest G.; Myneni, Ranga B.; Wang, Yujie; Bi, Jian; Mendes de Moura, Yhasmin; Sellers, Piers J.

    2014-01-01

    We show that the vegetation canopy of the Amazon rainforest is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation patterns and that reduction in rainfall since 2000 has diminished vegetation greenness across large parts of Amazonia. Large-scale directional declines in vegetation greenness may indicate decreases in carbon uptake and substantial changes in the energy balance of the Amazon. We use improved estimates of surface reflectance from satellite data to show a close link between reductions in annual precipitation, El Nino southern oscillation events, and photosynthetic activity across tropical and subtropical Amazonia. We report that, since the year 2000, precipitation has declined across 69% of the tropical evergreen forest (5.4 million sq km) and across 80% of the subtropical grasslands (3.3 million sq km). These reductions, which coincided with a decline in terrestrial water storage, account for about 55% of a satellite-observed widespread decline in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). During El Nino events, NDVI was reduced about 16.6% across an area of up to 1.6 million sq km compared with average conditions. Several global circulation models suggest that a rise in equatorial sea surface temperature and related displacement of the intertropical convergence zone could lead to considerable drying of tropical forests in the 21st century. Our results provide evidence that persistent drying could degrade Amazonian forest canopies, which would have cascading effects on global carbon and climate dynamics.

  20. Variation in stem mortality rates determines patterns of above-ground biomass in Amazonian forests: implications for dynamic global vegetation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michelle O; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Verbeeck, Hans; von Randow, Celso; Monteagudo, Abel; Phillips, Oliver L; Brienen, Roel J W; Feldpausch, Ted R; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela; Fauset, Sophie; Quesada, Carlos A; Christoffersen, Bradley; Ciais, Philippe; Sampaio, Gilvan; Kruijt, Bart; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Zhang, Ke; Alvarez-Davila, Esteban; Alves de Oliveira, Atila; Amaral, Ieda; Andrade, Ana; Aragao, Luiz E O C; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J M M; Arroyo, Luzmila; Aymard, Gerardo A; Baraloto, Christopher; Barroso, Jocely; Bonal, Damien; Boot, Rene; Camargo, Jose; Chave, Jerome; Cogollo, Alvaro; Cornejo Valverde, Fernando; Lola da Costa, Antonio C; Di Fiore, Anthony; Ferreira, Leandro; Higuchi, Niro; Honorio, Euridice N; Killeen, Tim J; Laurance, Susan G; Laurance, William F; Licona, Juan; Lovejoy, Thomas; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marimon, Bia; Marimon, Ben Hur; Matos, Darley C L; Mendoza, Casimiro; Neill, David A; Pardo, Guido; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Pitman, Nigel C A; Poorter, Lourens; Prieto, Adriana; Ramirez-Angulo, Hirma; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustin; Salomao, Rafael P; Silveira, Marcos; Stropp, Juliana; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Toledo, Marisol; Torres-Lezama, Armando; van der Heijden, Geertje M F; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Guimarães Vieira, Ima Cèlia; Vilanova, Emilio; Vos, Vincent A; Baker, Timothy R

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the processes that determine above-ground biomass (AGB) in Amazonian forests is important for predicting the sensitivity of these ecosystems to environmental change and for designing and evaluating dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). AGB is determined by inputs from woody productivity [woody net primary productivity (NPP)] and the rate at which carbon is lost through tree mortality. Here, we test whether two direct metrics of tree mortality (the absolute rate of woody biomass loss and the rate of stem mortality) and/or woody NPP, control variation in AGB among 167 plots in intact forest across Amazonia. We then compare these relationships and the observed variation in AGB and woody NPP with the predictions of four DGVMs. The observations show that stem mortality rates, rather than absolute rates of woody biomass loss, are the most important predictor of AGB, which is consistent with the importance of stand size structure for determining spatial variation in AGB. The relationship between stem mortality rates and AGB varies among different regions of Amazonia, indicating that variation in wood density and height/diameter relationships also influences AGB. In contrast to previous findings, we find that woody NPP is not correlated with stem mortality rates and is weakly positively correlated with AGB. Across the four models, basin-wide average AGB is similar to the mean of the observations. However, the models consistently overestimate woody NPP and poorly represent the spatial patterns of both AGB and woody NPP estimated using plot data. In marked contrast to the observations, DGVMs typically show strong positive relationships between woody NPP and AGB. Resolving these differences will require incorporating forest size structure, mechanistic models of stem mortality and variation in functional composition in DGVMs. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Li, Wei; McGrath, Matthew J.; Chang, Jinfeng; Peng, Shushi

    2018-01-01

    Land use change (LUC) is among the main anthropogenic disturbances in the global carbon cycle. Here we present the model developments in a global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 for a more realistic representation of LUC processes. First, we included gross land use change (primarily shifting cultivation) and forest wood harvest in addition to net land use change. Second, we included sub-grid evenly aged land cohorts to represent secondary forests and to keep track of the transient stage of agricultural lands since LUC. Combination of these two features allows the simulation of shifting cultivation with a rotation length involving mainly secondary forests instead of primary ones. Furthermore, a set of decision rules regarding the land cohorts to be targeted in different LUC processes have been implemented. Idealized site-scale simulation has been performed for miombo woodlands in southern Africa assuming an annual land turnover rate of 5 % grid cell area between forest and cropland. The result shows that the model can correctly represent forest recovery and cohort aging arising from agricultural abandonment. Such a land turnover process, even though without a net change in land cover, yields carbon emissions largely due to the imbalance between the fast release from forest clearing and the slow uptake from agricultural abandonment. The simulation with sub-grid land cohorts gives lower emissions than without, mainly because the cleared secondary forests have a lower biomass carbon stock than the mature forests that are otherwise cleared when sub-grid land cohorts are not considered. Over the region of southern Africa, the model is able to account for changes in different forest cohort areas along with the historical changes in different LUC activities, including regrowth of old forests when LUC area decreases. Our developments provide possibilities to account for continental or global forest demographic change resulting from past anthropogenic and

  2. Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions in Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixi Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth’s system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe’s eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under historical and future climates. Two of the articles examine how lake/pond water quality is related to human activity and climate. Overall, these articles can serve as important references for future studies to further advance our understanding of how water, soil, and vegetation interactively affect the health and productivity of the Earth’s ecosystem.

  3. Monitoring of vegetation dynamics and assessing vegetation response to drought in the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Haro, F. J.; Moreno, A.; Perez-Hoyos, A.; Gilabert, M. A.; Melia, J.; Belda, F.; Poquet, D.; Martinez, B.; Verger, A.

    2009-07-01

    Monitoring the vegetation activity over long time-scales is necessary to discern ecosystem response to climate variability. Spatial and temporally consistent estimates of the biophysical variables such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and leaf area index (LAI) have been obtained in the context of DULCINEA Project. We used long-term monthly climate statistics to build simple climatic indices (SPI, moisture index) at different time scales. From these indices, we estimated that the climatic disturbances affected both the growing season and the total amount of vegetation. This implies that the anomaly of vegetation cover is a good indicator of moisture condition and can be an important data source when used for detecting an monitoring drought in the Iberian Peninsula. The impact of climate variability on the vegetation dynamics has shown not to be the same for every region. We concluded that the relationships between vegetation anomaly and moisture availability are significant for the arid and semiarid areas. (Author) 6 refs.

  4. Monitoring of vegetation dynamics and assessing vegetation response to drought in the Iberian Peninsula

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Haro, F. J.; Moreno, A.; Perez-Hoyos, A.; Gilabert, M. A.; Melia, J.; Belda, F.; Poquet, D.; Martinez, B.; Verger, A.

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring the vegetation activity over long time-scales is necessary to discern ecosystem response to climate variability. Spatial and temporally consistent estimates of the biophysical variables such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and leaf area index (LAI) have been obtained in the context of DULCINEA Project. We used long-term monthly climate statistics to build simple climatic indices (SPI, moisture index) at different time scales. From these indices, we estimated that the climatic disturbances affected both the growing season and the total amount of vegetation. This implies that the anomaly of vegetation cover is a good indicator of moisture condition and can be an important data source when used for detecting an monitoring drought in the Iberian Peninsula. The impact of climate variability on the vegetation dynamics has shown not to be the same for every region. We concluded that the relationships between vegetation anomaly and moisture availability are significant for the arid and semiarid areas. (Author) 6 refs.

  5. Quantifying the Impacts of Environmental Factors on Vegetation Dynamics over Climatic and Management Gradients of Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Dubovyk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Currently there is a lack of quantitative information regarding the driving factors of vegetation dynamics in post-Soviet Central Asia. Insufficient knowledge also exists concerning vegetation variability across sub-humid to arid climatic gradients as well as vegetation response to different land uses, from natural rangelands to intensively irrigated croplands. In this study, we analyzed the environmental drivers of vegetation dynamics in five Central Asian countries by coupling key vegetation parameter “overall greenness” derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series data, with its possible factors across various management and climatic gradients. We developed nine generalized least-squares random effect (GLS-RE models to analyze the relative impact of environmental factors on vegetation dynamics. The obtained results quantitatively indicated the extensive control of climatic factors on managed and unmanaged vegetation cover across Central Asia. The most diverse vegetation dynamics response to climatic variables was observed for “intensively managed irrigated croplands”. Almost no differences in response to these variables were detected for managed non-irrigated vegetation and unmanaged (natural vegetation across all countries. Natural vegetation and rainfed non-irrigated crop dynamics were principally associated with temperature and precipitation parameters. Variables related to temperature had the greatest relative effect on irrigated croplands and on vegetation cover within the mountainous zone. Further research should focus on incorporating the socio-economic factors discussed here in a similar analysis.

  6. Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, J.P.; Sucksdorff, Y. [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method

  7. Soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikonen, J P; Sucksdorff, Y [Finnish Environment Agency, Helsinki (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    In this study the soil/vegetation/atmosphere-model based on the formulation of Deardorff was refined to hour basis and applied to a field in Vihti. The effect of model parameters on model results (energy fluxes, temperatures) was also studied as well as the effect of atmospheric conditions. The estimation of atmospheric conditions on the soil-vegetation system as well as an estimation of the effect of vegetation parameters on the atmospheric climate was estimated. Areal surface fluxes, temperatures and moistures were also modelled for some river basins in southern Finland. Land-use and soil parameterisation was developed to include properties and yearly variation of all vegetation and soil types. One classification was selected to describe the hydrothermal properties of the soils. Evapotranspiration was verified against the water balance method

  8. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  9. Noise-driven cooperative dynamics between vegetation and topography in riparian zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesipa, Riccardo; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Riparian ecosystems exhibit complex biotic and abiotic dynamics, where the triad vegetation-sediments-stream determines the eco-geomorphological features of the river landscape. Random fluctuations of the water stage are a key trait of this triad, and a number of behaviors of the fluvial environment can be understood only taking into consideration the role of noise. In fact, in a given plot, vegetation biomass can grow (if the stage is below the plot elevation) or decay (if the stage is above the plot elevation). As a result, biomass exhibits significant temporal variations. In this framework, the capability of vegetation to alter the transect topography (namely, the plot elevation) is crucial. Vegetation can increase the plot elevation by a number of mechanisms (trapping of water- and wind-transported sediment particles, production of organic soil, stabilization of the soil surface). The increment of plot elevation induces the reduction of the plot-specific magnitude, frequency and duration of floods. These more favorable plot-specific hydrological conditions, in turn, induce an increment of biomass. Moreover, the higher the vegetation biomass, the higher the plot elevation increment induced by these mechanisms. In order to elucidate how the stochastically varying water stage and the vegetation-induced topographic alteration shape the bio-morphological characteristics of riparian transects, a stochastic model that takes into account the main links between vegetation, sediments and the stream was adopted. In particular, the capability of vegetation to alter the plot topography was emphasized. In modeling such interactions, the minimalistic approach was pursued. The complex vegetation-sediments-stream interactions were modeled by a set of state-depended stochastic eco-hydraulic equations. The probability density function of vegetation biomass was then analytically evaluated in any transect plot. This pdf strongly depends on the vegetation-topography feedback. We

  10. Feasibility of coupled empirical and dynamic modeling to assess climate change and air pollution impacts on temperate forest vegetation of the eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell, T C; Reinds, G J; Sullivan, T J; Clark, C M; Bonten, L T C; Mol-Dijkstra, J P; Wamelink, G W W; Dovciak, M

    2018-03-01

    Changes in climate and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition caused pronounced changes in soil conditions and habitat suitability for many plant species over the latter half of the previous century. Such changes are expected to continue in the future with anticipated further changing air temperature and precipitation that will likely influence the effects of N deposition. To investigate the potential long-term impacts of atmospheric N deposition on hardwood forest ecosystems in the eastern United States in the context of climate change, application of the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community model VSD+PROPS was explored at three sites in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee. This represents the first application of VSD+PROPS to forest ecosystems in the United States. Climate change and elevated (above mid-19th century) N deposition were simulated to be important factors for determining habitat suitability. Although simulation results suggested that the suitability of these forests to support the continued presence of their characteristic understory plant species might decline by the year 2100, low data availability for building vegetation response models with PROPS resulted in uncertain results at the extremes of simulated N deposition. Future PROPS model development in the United States should focus on inclusion of additional foundational data or alternate candidate predictor variables to reduce these uncertainties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Vegetation Dynamics and Community Assembly in Post-Agricultural Heathland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kepfer Rojas, Sebastian

    that land-use legacies are still present in the soil and were important determinants of vegetation dynamics and community assembly. However, the effects of land-use legacies were mostly mediated by the understory vegetation and differed according to the functional groups. The distance to the edge, a proxy...... for the proximity to external seed sources, was an important factor affecting different components of the structure of the vegetation, demonstrating the importance of dispersal in the development of the community. My results indicate that the effect of the biotic interactions varies along abiotic gradients (e......Summary This PhD study aims at understanding how biotic, abiotic and stochastic factors interact to structure a heathland vegetation community managed under different traditional land-use practices for centuries prior to abandonment ca. 120 years ago. This study is part of one of the longest...

  12. Implementation of a Marauding Insect Module (MIM, version 1.0) in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS, version 2.6b4) dynamic vegetation-land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Price, David T.; Ramankutty, Navin; Parrott, Lael; Damon Matthews, H.

    2016-04-01

    Insects defoliate and kill plants in many ecosystems worldwide. The consequences of these natural processes on terrestrial ecology and nutrient cycling are well established, and their potential climatic effects resulting from modified land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, energy, and water are increasingly being recognized. We developed a Marauding Insect Module (MIM) to quantify, in the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS), the consequences of insect activity on biogeochemical and biogeophysical fluxes, also accounting for the effects of altered vegetation dynamics. MIM can simulate damage from three different insect functional types: (1) defoliators on broadleaf deciduous trees, (2) defoliators on needleleaf evergreen trees, and (3) bark beetles on needleleaf evergreen trees, with the resulting impacts being estimated by IBIS based on the new, insect-modified state of the vegetation. MIM further accounts for the physical presence and gradual fall of insect-killed dead standing trees. The design of MIM should facilitate the addition of other insect types besides the ones already included and could guide the development of similar modules for other process-based vegetation models. After describing IBIS-MIM, we illustrate the usefulness of the model by presenting results spanning daily to centennial timescales for vegetation dynamics and cycling of carbon, energy, and water in a simplified setting and for bark beetles only. More precisely, we simulated 100 % mortality events from the mountain pine beetle for three locations in western Canada. We then show that these simulated impacts agree with many previous studies based on field measurements, satellite data, or modelling. MIM and similar tools should therefore be of great value in assessing the wide array of impacts resulting from insect-induced plant damage in the Earth system.

  13. Earth Observation of Vegetation Dynamics in Global Drylands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tian, Feng

    Land degradation in global drylands has been a concern related to both the local livelihoods and the changes in terrestrial biosphere, especially in the context of substantial global environmental changes. Earth Observation (EO) provides a unique way to assess the vegetation dynamics over the past...

  14. Advances on Modelling Riparian Vegetation-Hydromorphology Interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Solari, L.; Van Oorschot, M.; Belletti, B.; Hendriks, D.; Rinaldi, M.; Vargas-Luna, A.

    2016-01-01

    Riparian vegetation actively interacts with fluvial systems affecting river hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and groundwater. These interactions can be coupled because both vegetation and hydromorphology (i.e. the combined scientific study of hydrology and fluvial geomorphology) involve dynamic

  15. Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

  16. Inter-species competition-facilitation in stochastic riparian vegetation dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2013-02-07

    Riparian vegetation is a highly dynamic community that lives on river banks and which depends to a great extent on the fluvial hydrology. The stochasticity of the discharge and erosion/deposition processes in fact play a key role in determining the distribution of vegetation along a riparian transect. These abiotic processes interact with biotic competition/facilitation mechanisms, such as plant competition for light, water, and nutrients. In this work, we focus on the dynamics of plants characterized by three components: (1) stochastic forcing due to river discharges, (2) competition for resources, and (3) inter-species facilitation due to the interplay between vegetation and fluid dynamics processes. A minimalist stochastic bio-hydrological model is proposed for the dynamics of the biomass of two vegetation species: one species is assumed dominant and slow-growing, the other is subdominant, but fast-growing. The stochastic model is solved analytically and the probability density function of the plant biomasses is obtained as a function of both the hydrologic and biologic parameters. The impact of the competition/facilitation processes on the distribution of vegetation species along the riparian transect is investigated and remarkable effects are observed. Finally, a good qualitative agreement is found between the model results and field data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Dynamics of climatic characteristics influencing vegetation in Siberia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shulgina, Tamara M; Genina, Elena Yu; Gordov, Evgeny P

    2011-01-01

    The spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics of surface air temperature and precipitation and those bioclimatic indices that are based upon factors which control vegetation cover are investigated. Surface air temperature and precipitation data are retrieved from the ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA datasets, respectively, which were found to be the closest to the observational data. We created an archive of bioclimatic indices for further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, which include carbon uptake changes related to changes of vegetation types and amount, as well as with spatial shifts of vegetation zones. Meanwhile, analysis reveals significant positive trends of the growing season length accompanied by a statistically significant increase of the sums of the growing degree days and precipitation over the south of West Siberia. The trends hint at a tendency for an increase of vegetation ecosystems' productivity across the south of West Siberia (55°–60°N, 59°–84°E) in the past several decades and (if sustained) may lead to a future increase of vegetation productivity in this region.

  18. Development of a dynamic growth-death model for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in minimally processed leafy green vegetables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKellar, Robin C; Delaquis, Pascal

    2011-11-15

    Escherichia coli O157:H7, an occasional contaminant of fresh produce, can present a serious health risk in minimally processed leafy green vegetables. A good predictive model is needed for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) purposes, which adequately describes the growth or die-off of this pathogen under variable temperature conditions experienced during processing, storage and shipping. Literature data on behaviour of this pathogen on fresh-cut lettuce and spinach was taken from published graphs by digitization, published tables or from personal communications. A three-phase growth function was fitted to the data from 13 studies, and a square root model for growth rate (μ) as a function of temperature was derived: μ=(0.023*(Temperature-1.20))(2). Variability in the published data was incorporated into the growth model by the use of weighted regression and the 95% prediction limits. A log-linear die-off function was fitted to the data from 13 studies, and the resulting rate constants were fitted to a shifted lognormal distribution (Mean: 0.013; Standard Deviation, 0.010; Shift, 0.001). The combined growth-death model successfully predicted pathogen behaviour under both isothermal and non-isothermal conditions when compared to new published data. By incorporating variability, the resulting model is an improvement over existing ones, and is suitable for QRA applications. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Multiple equilibria on planet Dune: climate–vegetation dynamics on a sandy planet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Cresto Aleina

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the interaction between climate and vegetation on an ideal water-limited planet, focussing on the influence of vegetation on the global water cycle. We introduce a simple mechanistic box model consisting in a two-layer representation of the atmosphere and a two-layer soil scheme. The model includes the dynamics of vegetation cover, and the main physical processes of energy and water exchange among the different components. With a realistic choice of parameters, this model displays three stable equilibria, depending on the initial conditions of soil water and vegetation cover. The system reaches a hot and dry state for low values of initial water content and/or vegetation cover, while we observe a wet, vegetated state with mild surface temperature when the system starts from larger initial values of both variables. The third state is a cold desert, where plants transfer enough water to the atmosphere to start a weaker, evaporation-dominated water cycle before they wilt. These results indicate that in this system vegetation plays a central role in transferring water from the soil to the atmosphere and trigger a hydrologic cycle. The model adopted here can also be used to conceptually illustrate processes and feedbacks affecting the water cycle in water-limited continental areas on Earth.

  20. Comparison of Modeling Grassland Degradation with and without Considering Localized Spatial Associations in Vegetation Changing Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuwei Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Grassland ecosystems worldwide are confronted with degradation. It is of great importance to understand long-term trajectory patterns of grassland vegetation by advanced analytical models. This study proposes a new approach called a binary logistic regression model with neighborhood interactions, or BLR-NIs, which is based on binary logistic regression (BLR, but fully considers the spatio-temporally localized spatial associations or characterization of neighborhood interactions (NIs in the patterns of grassland vegetation. The BLR-NIs model was applied to a modeled vegetation degradation of grasslands in the Xilin river basin, Inner Mongolia, China. Residual trend analysis on the normalized difference vegetation index (RESTREND-NDVI, which excluded the climatic impact on vegetation dynamics, was adopted as a preprocessing step to derive three human-induced trajectory patterns (vegetation degradation, vegetation recovery, and no significant change in vegetation during two consecutive periods, T1 (2000–2008 and T2 (2007–2015. Human activities, including livestock grazing intensity and transportation accessibility measured by road network density, were included as explanatory variables for vegetation degradation, which was defined for locations if vegetation recovery or no significant change in vegetation in T1 and vegetation degradation in T2 were observed. Our work compared the results of BLR-NIs and the traditional BLR model that did not consider NIs. The study showed that: (1 both grazing intensity and road density had a positive correlation to vegetation degradation based on the traditional BLR model; (2 only road density was found to positively correlate to vegetation degradation by the BLR-NIs model; NIs appeared to be critical factors to predict vegetation degradation; and (3 including NIs in the BLR model improved the model performance substantially. The study provided evidence for the importance of including localized spatial

  1. Vegetation dynamics of the Tanbi Wetland National Park, The Gambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceesay, A.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in mangrove vegetation have been identified as an important indicator of environmental change. The mangroves of the Tanbi Wetland National Park (TWNP) connect the Atlantic coast with the estuary of the River Gambia and as such, play an invaluable role in the agriculture, tourism and fisheries sectors of The Gambia. Our research seeks to understand the long-term changes in the mangrove vegetation to strengthen the formulation of sustainable alternative livelihoods and adaptation strategies to climate change. Mangrove vegetation dynamics was assessed by remote sensing, using decadal Landsat images covering 1973 - 2012. Physicochemical parameters were analyzed during the rainy and dry seasons of The Gambia for correlation with climate data. Our findings indicate that the long-term changes in salinity (24.5 and 35.8ppt) and water temperature (27.6oC and 30.2oC) during the rainy and dry seasons respectively are retarding mangrove growth. Mangrove vegetation cover declined by 6%, while grassland increased by 56.4%. This research concludes that long-term hyper-salinity is the cause for the stunted vegetation and lack of mangrove rejuvenation. We propose that specialized replanting systems such as the use of saplings be adopted instead of the conventional use of propagules. Alternative livelihoods also need to be diversified to support coastal communities.

  2. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'ishi, R.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

    2013-07-01

    When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago) is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm). In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ). The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback) and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM). Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  3. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. O'ishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ. The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  4. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bastos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion.

    The main goals of the present work are (i to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively.

    The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998–2009, at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to

  5. Modelling post-fire vegetation recovery in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A.; Gouveia, C. M.; Dacamara, C. C.; Trigo, R. M.

    2011-12-01

    Wildfires in Mediterranean Europe have been increasing in number and extension over the last decades and constitute one of the major disturbances of these ecosystems. Portugal is the country with more burnt area in the last decade and the years of 2003 and 2005 were particularly devastating, the total burned areas of 425 000 and 338 000 ha being several times higher than the corresponding average. The year of 2005 further coincided with one of the most severe droughts since early 20th century. Due to different responses of vegetation to diverse fire regimes and to the complexity of landscape structures, fires have complex effects on vegetation recovery. Remote sensing has revealed to be a powerful tool in studying vegetation dynamics and in monitoring post-fire vegetation recovery, which is crucial to land-management and to prevent erosion. The main goals of the present work are (i) to assess the accuracy of a vegetation recovery model previously developed by the authors; (ii) to assess the model's performance, namely its sensitivity to initial conditions, to the temporal length of the input dataset and to missing data; (iii) to study vegetation recovery over two selected areas that were affected by two large wildfire events in the fire seasons of 2003 and 2005, respectively. The study relies on monthly values of NDVI over 11 years (1998-2009), at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, as obtained by the VEGETATION instrument. According to results from sensitivity analysis, the model is robust and able to provide good estimations of recovery times of vegetation when the regeneration process is regular, even when missing data is present. In respect to the two selected burnt scars, results indicate that fire damage is a determinant factor of regeneration, as less damaged vegetation recovers more rapidly, which is mainly justified by the high coverage of Pinus pinaster over the area, and by the fact that coniferous forests tend to recover slower than transitional woodland

  6. Modeling the land requirements and potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in Brazil and India using the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lapola, David M. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling, D-20146 Hamburg (Germany); Priess, Joerg A. [Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel (Germany); Bondeau, Alberte [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410 000 to 95 000 km{sup 2} if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212 000 km{sup 2}). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18 000-89 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 29 000 km{sup 2}), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. In Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211 000 km{sup 2} (mean of 33 000 km{sup 2}) and in India from 7000 to 161 000 km{sup 2} (mean 17 000 km{sup 2}). Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (author)

  7. Co-evolution of Riparian Vegetation and Channel Dynamics in an Aggrading Braided River System, Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gran, K. B.; Michal, T.

    2014-12-01

    Increased bank stability by riparian vegetation in braided rivers can decrease bed reworking rates and focus the flow. The magnitude of influence and resulting channel morphology are functions of vegetation strength vs. channel dynamics, a concept encapsulated in a dimensionless ratio between timescales for vegetation growth and channel reworking known as T*. We investigate this relationship in an aggrading braided river at Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, and compare results to numerical and physical models. Gradual reductions in post-eruption sediment loads have reduced bed reworking rates, allowing vegetation to persist year-round and impact channel dynamics on the Pasig-Potrero and Sacobia Rivers. From 2009-2011, we collected data detailing vegetation extent, type, density, and root strength. Incorporating these data into RipRoot and BSTEM models shows cohesion due to roots increased from zero in unvegetated conditions to >10.2 kPa in densely-growing grasses. Field-based parameters were incorporated into a cellular model comparing vegetation growth and sediment mobility effects on braided channel dynamics. The model shows that both low sediment mobility and high vegetation strength lead to less active systems, reflecting trends observed in the field. An estimated T* between 0.8 - 2.3 for the Pasig-Potrero River suggests channels were mobile enough to maintain the braidplain width clear of vegetation and even experience slight gains in area through annual removal of existing vegetation. However, persistent vegetation focused flow and thus aggradation over the unvegetated fraction of braidplain, leading to an aggradational imbalance and transition to a more avulsive state. While physical models predict continued narrowing of the active braidplain as T* declines, the future trajectory of channel-vegetation interactions at Pinatubo as sedimentation rates decline appears more complicated due to strong seasonal variability in precipitation and sediment loads. By 2011

  8. The role of vegetation dynamics in the control of atmospheric CO{sub 2} content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sitch, Stephen

    2000-04-01

    This thesis contains a description of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) and its application to infer the role of vegetation dynamics on atmospheric CO{sub 2} content at different time-scales. The model combines vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry in a modular framework. Individual modules describe ecosystems processes, including vegetation resource competition and production, tissue turnover, growth, fire and mortality, soil and litter biogeochemistry, including the effects of CO{sub 2} on these processes. The model simulates realistic post-disturbance succession in different environments. Seasonal exchange of H{sub 2}O and CO{sub 2} between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is modelled in reasonable agreement with observation. Global estimates of carbon stocks in soil, litter and vegetation are within their acceptable ranges and the model captures the present-day patterns in vegetation. Fire return intervals are simulated correctly in most regions. Results emphasise the important role of the terrestrial biosphere in both the seasonal cycle and in the inter-annual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. LPJ successfully reproduced both the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO{sub 2} content as measured at a global network of monitoring stations. The model predicted a small net terrestrial biosphere uptake of CO{sub 2} during the 1980s with a strong CO{sub 2} fertilisation effect, which enhances plant production, reduced by the effects of climate and land use change. Historical land use change and CO{sub 2} fertilisation have been the dominant, albeit opposing factors governing the response of the terrestrial biosphere with respect to carbon storage during the 20th century. LPJ is run using one future climate and atmospheric CO{sub 2} scenario until 2200. Enhanced production due to the CO{sub 2} fertilisation effect eventually reaches an asymptote, and consequently the ability of

  9. A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van P.M.; Douma, J.C.; Verheijen, L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist.

  10. Climatic and socio-economic fire drivers in the Mediterranean basin at a century scale: Analysis and modelling based on historical fire statistics and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouillot, F.; Koutsias, N.; Conedera, M.; Pezzatti, B.; Madoui, A.; Belhadj Kheder, C.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire is the main disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems, with implications on biogeochemical cycles, biosphere/atmosphere interactions, air quality, biodiversity, and socio-ecosystems sustainability. The fire/climate relationship is time-scale dependent and may additionally vary according to concurrent changes climatic, environmental (e.g. land use), and fire management processes (e.g. fire prevention and control strategies). To date, however, most studies focus on a decadal scale only, being fire statistics ore remote sensing data usually available for a few decades only. Long-term fire data may allow for a better caption of the slow-varying human and climate constrains and for testing the consistency of the fire/climate relationship on the mid-time to better apprehend global change effects on fire risks. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) associated with process-based fire models have been recently developed to capture both the direct role of climate on fire hazard and the indirect role of changes in vegetation and human population, to simulate biosphere/atmosphere interactions including fire emissions. Their ability to accurately reproduce observed fire patterns is still under investigation regarding seasonality, extreme events or temporal trend to identify potential misrepresentations of processes. We used a unique long-term fire reconstruction (from 1880 to 2016) of yearly burned area along a North/South and East/West environmental gradient across the Mediterranean Basin (southern Switzerland, Greece, Algeria, Tunisia) to capture the climatic and socio economic drivers of extreme fire years by linking yearly burned area with selected climate indices derived from historical climate databases and socio-economic variables. We additionally compared the actual historical reconstructed fire history with the yearly burned area simulated by a panel of DGVMS (FIREMIP initiative) driven by daily CRU climate data at 0.5° resolution across the

  11. Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epstein, Howard E; Myers-Smith, Isla; Walker, Donald A

    2013-01-01

    We present a focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on the ‘Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation’. The focus issue includes three perspective articles (Verbyla 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041003, Williams et al 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041004, Loranty and Goetz 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 011005) and 22 research articles. The focus issue arose as a result of heightened interest in the response of high-latitude vegetation to natural and anthropogenic changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and the consequences that these vegetation changes might have for northern ecosystems. A special session at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union Meeting on the ‘Greening of the Arctic’ spurred the call for papers. Many of the resulting articles stem from intensive research efforts stimulated by International Polar Year projects and the growing acknowledgment of ongoing climate change impacts in northern terrestrial ecosystems. (synthesis and review)

  12. Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmel, Yohay

    2018-01-01

    Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance

  13. Empirical analysis of vegetation dynamics and the possibility of a catastrophic desertification transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weissmann, Haim; Kent, Rafi; Michael, Yaron; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2017-01-01

    The process of desertification in the semi-arid climatic zone is considered by many as a catastrophic regime shift, since the positive feedback of vegetation density on growth rates yields a system that admits alternative steady states. Some support to this idea comes from the analysis of static patterns, where peaks of the vegetation density histogram were associated with these alternative states. Here we present a large-scale empirical study of vegetation dynamics, aimed at identifying and quantifying directly the effects of positive feedback. To do that, we have analyzed vegetation density across 2.5 × 106 km2 of the African Sahel region, with spatial resolution of 30 × 30 meters, using three consecutive snapshots. The results are mixed. The local vegetation density (measured at a single pixel) moves towards the average of the corresponding rainfall line, indicating a purely negative feedback. On the other hand, the chance of spatial clusters (of many "green" pixels) to expand in the next census is growing with their size, suggesting some positive feedback. We show that these apparently contradicting results emerge naturally in a model with positive feedback and strong demographic stochasticity, a model that allows for a catastrophic shift only in a certain range of parameters. Static patterns, like the double peak in the histogram of vegetation density, are shown to vary between censuses, with no apparent correlation with the actual dynamical features. Our work emphasizes the importance of dynamic response patterns as indicators of the state of the system, while the usefulness of static modality features appears to be quite limited.

  14. ALPINE VEGETATION ECOTONE DYNAMICS IN GANGOTRI CATCHMENT USING REMOTE SENSING TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Singh

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the satellite imagery reveals two different perspectives of the vegetation ecotone dynamics in Gangotri catchment. On one hand, there is evidence of upward shift in the alpine tree and vegetation ecotone over three decades. On the other hand, there has been densification happening at the past treeline. The time series fAPAR data of two decades from NOAA-AVHRR confirms the greening trend in the area. The density of trees in Chirbasa has gone up whereas in Bhojbasa there is no significant change in NDVI but the number of groves has increased. Near Gaumukh the vegetal activity has not shown any significant change. We found that the treeline extracted from satellite imagery has moved up about 327±80m and other vegetation line has moved up about 401±77m in three decades. The vertical rate of treeline shift is found to be 11m/yr with reference to 1976 treeline; however, this can be 5m/yr if past toposheet records (1924 – 45 are considered as reliable reference. However, the future IPCC scenario based bioclimatic fundamental niche modelling of the Betula utilis (a surrogate to alpine treeline suggests that treeline could be moving upward with an average rate of 3m/yr. This study not only confirms that there is an upward shift of vegetation in the alpine zone of Himalayas, but also indicate that old vegetation ecotones have grown denser

  15. Classifying and comparing spatial models of fire dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan

    2007-01-01

    Wildland fire is a significant disturbance in many ecosystems worldwide and the interaction of fire with climate and vegetation over long time spans has major effects on vegetation dynamics, ecosystem carbon budgets, and patterns of biodiversity. Landscape-Fire-Succession Models (LFSMs) that simulate the linked processes of fire and vegetation development in a spatial...

  16. Potential role of vegetation dynamics on recent extreme droughts over tropical South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical South America is a drought hot spot. In slightly over a decade (2005-2016), the region encountered three extreme droughts (2005, 2010, and 2016). Recurrent extreme droughts not only impact the region's eco-hydrology and socio-economy, but are also globally important as they can transform the planet's largest rainforest, the Amazon, from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Understanding drought drivers and mechanisms underlying extreme droughts in tropical South America can help better project the fate of the Amazon rainforest in a changing climate. In this study we use a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4) coupled with a comprehensive land-surface model (CLM4.5) to study the present-day hydroclimate of the region, focusing specifically on what might have caused the frequent recurrence of extreme droughts. In the context of observation natural variability of the global oceanic forcing, we tackle the role of land-atmosphere interactions and ran the model with and without dynamic vegetation to study how vegetation dynamics and carbon-nitrogen cycles may have influenced the drought characteristics. Our results demonstrate skillful simulation of the South American climate in the model, and indicate substantial sensitivity of the region's hydroclimatology to vegetation dynamics. This presentation will compare the role of global oceanic forcing versus regional land surface feedback in the recent recurrent droughts, and will characterize the effects of vegetation dynamics in enhancing the drought severity. Preliminary results on future projections of the regional ecosystem and droughts perspective will be also presented.

  17. Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Modeling Output Online

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yin, Yao; Rogala, Jim; Sullivan, John; Rohweder, Jason

    2005-01-01

    .... Predictions for distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation beds can potentially increase hunter observance of voluntary avoidance zones where foraging birds are left alone to feed undisturbed...

  18. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard; Ahuja, Narendra

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal

  19. Impact of dynamic vegetation phenology on the simulated pan-Arctic land surface state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teufel, Bernardo; Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek K.; Verseghy, Diana

    2018-03-01

    The pan-Arctic land surface is undergoing rapid changes in a warming climate, with near-surface permafrost projected to degrade significantly during the twenty-first century. Vegetation-related feedbacks have the potential to influence the rate of degradation of permafrost. In this study, the impact of dynamic phenology on the pan-Arctic land surface state, particularly near-surface permafrost, for the 1961-2100 period, is assessed by comparing two simulations of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)—one with dynamic phenology, modelled using the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM), and the other with prescribed phenology. These simulations are forced by atmospheric data from a transient climate change simulation of the 5th generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Comparison of the CLASS coupled to CTEM simulation to available observational estimates of plant area index, spatial distribution of permafrost and active layer thickness suggests that the model captures reasonably well the overall distribution of vegetation and permafrost. It is shown that the most important impact of dynamic phenology on the land surface occurs through albedo and it is demonstrated for the first time that vegetation control on albedo during late spring and early summer has the highest potential to impact the degradation of permafrost. While both simulations show extensive near-surface permafrost degradation by the end of the twenty-first century, the strong projected response of vegetation to climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations in the coupled simulation results in accelerated permafrost degradation in the northernmost continuous permafrost regions.

  20. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation Variability on the Vegetation Dynamics of the Mediterranean Rangelands using NDVI and Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Mitigating the vulnerability of Mediterranean rangelands against degradation is limited by our ability to understand and accurately characterize those impacts in space and time. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a radiometric measure of the photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation canopy chlorophyll and is therefore a good surrogate measure of vegetation dynamics. On the other hand, meteorological indices such as the drought assessing Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) are can be easily estimated from historical and projected datasets at the global scale. This work investigates the potential of driving Random Forest (RF) models with meteorological indices to approximate NDVI-based vegetation dynamics. A sufficiently large number of RF models are trained using random subsets of the dataset as predictors, in a bootstrapping approach to account for the uncertainty introduced by the subset selection. The updated E-OBS-v13.1 dataset of the ENSEMBLES EU FP6 program provides observed monthly meteorological input to estimate SPI over the Mediterranean rangelands. RF models are trained to depict vegetation dynamics using the latest version (3g.v1) of the third generation GIMMS NDVI generated from NOAA's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. Analysis is conducted for the period 1981-2015 at a gridded spatial resolution of 25 km. Preliminary results demonstrate the potential of machine learning algorithms to effectively mimic the underlying physical relationship of drought and Earth Observation vegetation indices to provide estimates based on precipitation variability.

  1. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

  2. Shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jiannong; Peringer, Alexander; Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin; Pǎtru-Stupariu, Ileana; Buttler, Alexandre; Golay, Francois; Porté-Agel, Fernando

    2018-10-15

    Many mountainous regions with high wind energy potential are characterized by multi-scale variabilities of vegetation in both spatial and time dimensions, which strongly affect the spatial distribution of wind resource and its time evolution. To this end, we developed a coupled interdisciplinary modeling framework capable of assessing the shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex mountain terrain. It was applied to a case study area in the Romanian Carpathians. The results show that the overall shifts in wind energy potential following the changes of vegetation pattern due to different land-use policies can be dramatic. This suggests that the planning of wind energy project should be integrated with the land-use planning at a specific site to ensure that the expected energy production of the planned wind farm can be reached over its entire lifetime. Moreover, the changes in the spatial distribution of wind and turbulence under different scenarios of land-use are complex, and they must be taken into account in the micro-siting of wind turbines to maximize wind energy production and minimize fatigue loads (and associated maintenance costs). The proposed new modeling framework offers, for the first time, a powerful tool for assessing long-term variability in local wind energy potential that emerges from land-use change driven vegetation dynamics over complex terrain. Following a previously unexplored pathway of cause-effect relationships, it demonstrates a new linkage of agro- and forest policies in landscape development with an ultimate trade-off between renewable energy production and biodiversity targets. Moreover, it can be extended to study the potential effects of micro-climatic changes associated with wind farms on vegetation development (growth and patterning), which could in turn have a long-term feedback effect on wind resource distribution in mountainous regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  3. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  4. Changes in Vegetation Growth Dynamics and Relations with Climate over China’s Landmass from 1982 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to projecting future ecosystem dynamics and the adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, we investigated vegetated growth dynamics (annual productivity, seasonality and the minimum amount of vegetated cover in China and their relations with climatic factors during 1982–2011, using the updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS third generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset and climate data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. Major findings are as follows: (1 annual mean NDVI over China significantly increased by about 0.0006 per year from 1982 to 2011; (2 of the vegetated area in China, over 33% experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth, mostly located in central and southern China; about 21% experienced a significant positive trend in growth seasonality, most of which occurred in northern China (>35°N; (3 changes in vegetation growth dynamics were significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation (p < 0.001 at a region scale; (4 at the country scale, changes in NDVI was significantly and positively correlated with annual air temperature (r = 0.52, p < 0.01 and not associated with annual precipitation (p > 0.1; (5 of the vegetated area, about 24% showed significant correlations between annual mean NDVI and air temperature (93% positive and remainder negative, and 12% showed significant correlations of annual mean NDVI with annual precipitation (65% positive and 35% negative. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth dynamics were controlled primarily by temperature and secondly by precipitation. Vegetation growth was also affected by human activities; and (6 monthly NDVI was significantly correlated with the

  5. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  6. The role of riparian vegetation density, channel orientation and water velocity in determining river temperature dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, Grace; Malcolm, Iain A.; Sadler, Jonathan P.; Hannah, David M.

    2017-10-01

    A simulation experiment was used to understand the importance of riparian vegetation density, channel orientation and flow velocity for stream energy budgets and river temperature dynamics. Water temperature and meteorological observations were obtained in addition to hemispherical photographs along a ∼1 km reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee, Scotland. Data from nine hemispherical images (representing different uniform canopy density scenarios) were used to parameterise a deterministic net radiation model and simulate radiative fluxes. For each vegetation scenario, the effects of eight channel orientations were investigated by changing the position of north at 45° intervals in each hemispheric image. Simulated radiative fluxes and observed turbulent fluxes drove a high-resolution water temperature model of the reach. Simulations were performed under low and high water velocity scenarios. Both velocity scenarios yielded decreases in mean (≥1.6 °C) and maximum (≥3.0 °C) temperature as canopy density increased. Slow-flowing water resided longer within the reach, which enhanced heat accumulation and dissipation, and drove higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures. Intermediate levels of shade produced highly variable energy flux and water temperature dynamics depending on the channel orientation and thus the time of day when the channel was shaded. We demonstrate that in many reaches relatively sparse but strategically located vegetation could produce substantial reductions in maximum temperature and suggest that these criteria are used to inform future river management.

  7. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Floodplain Vegetation Productivity and Carbon Cycle Dynamics of the Middle Fork Flathead River of Northwest Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakins, A. J.; Kimball, J. S.; Relyea, S.; Stanford, J. A.

    2005-05-01

    River floodplains are vital natural features that store floodwaters, improve water quality, provide habitat, and create recreational opportunities. Recent studies have shown that strong interactions among flooding, channel and sediment movement, vegetation, and groundwater create a dynamic shifting habitat mosaic that promotes biodiversity and complex food webs. Multiple physical and environmental processes interact within these systems to influence forest productivity, including water availability, nutrient supply, soil texture, and disturbance history. This study is designed to quantify the role of groundwater depth and meteorology in determining spatial and temporal patterns of net primary productivity (NPP) within the Nyack floodplain of the Middle Fork Flathead River, Northwestern Montana. We examine three intensive field sites composed of mature, mixed deciduous and evergreen conifer forest with varying hydrologic and vegetative characteristics. We use a modified Biome-BGC ecosystem process model with field-collected data (LAI, increment growth cores, groundwater depth, vegetation sap-flow, and local meteorology) to describe the effects of floodplain groundwater dynamics on vegetation community structure, and carbon/nitrogen cycling. Initial results indicate that conifers are more sensitive than deeper-rooted deciduous species to variability in groundwater depth and meteorological conditions. Forest productivity also shows a non-linear response to groundwater depth. Sites with intermediate groundwater depths (0.2-0.5m) allow vegetation to maintain connectivity to groundwater over longer periods during the growing season, are effectively uncoupled from atmospheric constraints on photosynthesis, and generally have greater productivity. Shallow groundwater sites (<0.2m) are less productive due to the indirect effects of reduced soil aerobic decomposition and reduced plant available nitrogen.

  9. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

    2012-01-01

    Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

  10. Impact of land use change on the land atmosphere carbon flux of South and South East Asia: A Synthesis of Dynamic Vegetation Model Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervarich, M.; Shu, S.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Stocker, B.; Arneth, A.; Viovy, N.; Kato, E.; Wiltshire, A.; Koven, C.; Sitch, S.; Zeng, N.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding our present day carbon cycle and possible solutions to recent increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide is dependent upon quantifying the terrestrial carbon budget. Currently, global land cover and land use change is estimated to emit 0.9 PgC yr-1 compared to emissions due to fossil fuel combustion and cement production of 8.4 PgC yr-1. South and Southeast Asia (India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Singapore) is a region of rapid land cover and land use change due to the continuous development of agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, and the increased demand of land for people to live. In this study, we synthesize outputs of nine models participated in Global Carbon Budget Project to identify the carbon budget of South and southeast Asia, diagnose the contribution of land cover and land use change to carbon emissions and assess areas of uncertainty in the suite of models. Uncertainty is determined using the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation of net ecosystem exchange and its component parts. Results show the region's terrestrial biosphere was a source of carbon emissions from the 1980 to the early 1990s. During the same time period, land cover and land use change increasingly contributed to carbon emission. In the most recent two decades, the region became a carbon sink since emission due to land cover land use changes. Spatially, the greatest total emissions occurred in the tropical forest of Southeast Asia. Additionally, this is the subregion with the greatest uncertainty and greatest biomass. Model uncertainty is shown to be proportional to total biomass. The atmospheric impacts of ENSO are shown to suppress the net biosphere productivity in South and Southeast Asia leading to years of increased carbon emissions.

  11. Relaxation dynamics and thermophysical properties of vegetable oils using time-domain reflectometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonkamble, Anil A; Sonsale, Rahul P; Kanshette, Mahesh S; Kabara, Komal B; Wananje, Kunal H; Kumbharkhane, Ashok C; Sarode, Arvind V

    2017-04-01

    Dielectric relaxation studies of vegetable oils are important for insights into their hydrogen bonding and intermolecular dynamics. The dielectric relaxation and thermo physical properties of triglycerides present in some vegetable oils have been measured over the frequency range of 10 MHz to 7 GHz in the temperature region 25 to 10 °C using a time-domain reflectometry approach. The frequency and temperature dependence of dielectric constants and dielectric loss factors were determined for coconut, peanut, soya bean, sunflower, palm, and olive oils. The dielectric permittivity spectra for each of the studied vegetable oils are explained using the Debye model with their complex dielectric permittivity analyzed using the Havriliak-Negami equation. The dielectric parameters static permittivity (ε 0 ), high-frequency limiting static permittivity (ε ∞ ), average relaxation time (τ 0 ), and thermodynamic parameters such as free energy (∆F τ ), enthalpy (∆H τ ), and entropy of activation (∆S τ ) were also measured. Calculation and analysis of these thermodynamic parameters agrees with the determined dielectric parameters, giving insights into the temperature dependence of the molecular dynamics of these systems.

  12. The Role of Different Plant Soil-Water Feedbacks in Models of Dryland Vegetation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silber, M.; Bonetti, S.; Gandhi, P.; Gowda, K.; Iams, S.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the processes underlying the formation of regular vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid regions is important to assessing desertification risk under increasing anthropogenic pressure. Various modeling frameworks have been proposed, which are all capable of generating similar patterns through self-organizing mechanisms that stem from assumptions about plant feedbacks on surface/subsurface water transport. We critically discuss a hierarchy of hydrology-vegetation models for the coupled dynamics of surface water, soil moisture, and vegetation biomass on a hillslope. We identify distinguishing features and trends for the periodic traveling wave solutions when there is an imposed idealized topography and make some comparisons to satellite images of large-scale banded vegetation patterns in drylands of Africa, Australia and North America. This work highlights the potential for constraining models by considerations of where the patterns may lie on a landscape, such as whether on a ridge or in a valley.

  13. Advantages of Using Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture over Gridded Precipitation Products and Land Surface Model Output in Assessing Regional Vegetation Water Availability and Growth Dynamics for a Lateral Inflow Receiving Landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, T.; McVicar, T.R.; Wang, G.J.; Chen, X.; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Liu, Y.; Shen, H.; Zhang, F.; Dolman, A.J.

    2016-01-01

    To improve the understanding of water-vegetation relationships, direct comparative studies assessing the utility of satellite remotely sensed soil moisture, gridded precipitation products, and land surface model output are needed. A case study was investigated for a water-limited, lateral inflow

  14. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

  15. Soil-geomorphic heterogeneity governs patchy vegetation dynamics at an arid ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestelmeyer, Brandon T; Ward, Judy P; Havstad, Kris M

    2006-04-01

    Soil properties are well known to affect vegetation, but the role of soil heterogeneity in the patterning of vegetation dynamics is poorly documented. We asked whether the location of an ecotone separating grass-dominated and sparsely vegetated areas reflected only historical variation in degradation or was related to variation in inherent soil properties. We then asked whether changes in the cover and spatial organization of vegetated and bare patches assessed using repeat aerial photography reflected self-organizing dynamics unrelated to soil variation or the stable patterning of soil variation. We found that the present-day ecotone was related to a shift from more weakly to more strongly developed soils. Parts of the ecotone were stable over a 60-year period, but shifts between bare and vegetated states, as well as persistently vegetated and bare states, occurred largely in small (<40 m2) patches throughout the study area. The probability that patches were presently vegetated or bare, as well as the probability that vegetation persisted and/or established over the 60-year period, was negatively related to surface calcium carbonate and positively related to subsurface clay content. Thus, only a fraction of the landscape was susceptible to vegetation change, and the sparsely vegetated area probably featured a higher frequency of susceptible soil patches. Patch dynamics and self-organizing processes can be constrained by subtle (and often unrecognized) soil heterogeneity.

  16. Mathematical Modeling of Flow Through Vegetated Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    of Illinois at Urbana - Champaign, 1996. [24] M.J. Dwyer, E.G. Patton, and R.H. Shaw. Turbulent kinetic energy budgets from a large-eddy simulation of...retardance in vegetated channels. Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE, 96:351–357, 1970. [33] W.H. Graf and S.C. Ko. Tests on cylinders

  17. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  18. The Prediction of Drought-Related Tree Mortality in Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinning, S.; Jensen, J.; Lomas, M. R.; Schwartz, B.; Woodward, F. I.

    2013-12-01

    Drought-related tree die-off events at regional scales have been reported from all wooded continents and it has been suggested that their frequency may be increasing. The prediction of these drought-related die-off events from regional to global scales has been recognized as a critical need for the conservation of forest resources and improving the prediction of climate-vegetation interactions. However, there is no conceptual consensus on how to best approach the quantitative prediction of tree mortality. Current models use a variety of mechanisms to represent demographic events. Mortality is modeled to represent a number of different processes, including death by fire, wind throw, extreme temperatures, and self-thinning, and each vegetation model differs in the emphasis they place on specific mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models generally operate on the assumption of incremental vegetation shift due to changes in the carbon economy of plant functional types and proportional effects on recruitment, growth, competition and mortality, but this may not capture sudden and sweeping tree death caused by extreme weather conditions. We tested several different approaches to predicting tree mortality within the framework of the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. We applied the model to the state of Texas, USA, which in 2011 experienced extreme drought conditions, causing the death of an estimated 300 million trees statewide. We then compared predicted to actual mortality to determine which algorithms most accurately predicted geographical variation in tree mortality. We discuss implications regarding the ongoing debate on the causes of tree death.

  19. Dynamic term structure models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

    This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

  20. Mathematical Modeling of Vegetable-Oil Crystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Jeppe Lindegaard

    be desirable to enhance specific properties such as shelf life, viscosity, texture, sensory aspects and physical appearance. Vegetable oils and fats constitute a considerable part of many food products such as chocolate, margarine, bread, spreads and ice cream. Several attractive properties found......In recent years the food sector has experienced a great boost in demand for tailor-made fats and oils to produce so-called functional foods, where ingredients have been carefully modified to yield products with specific, valuable properties. Depending on market segment and product, it may...... in these products, including flavor release, melting profile and appearance, are governed by the oils and fats added. Consequently, altering the fat phase may lead to enhanced properties of the products. The primary focus of the present work is vegetable oils and fats originating from different sources covering...

  1. Broad-Scale Environmental Conditions Responsible for Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Marsh

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem response to disturbance is influenced by environmental conditions at a number of scales. Changes in climate have altered fire regimes across the western United States, and have also likely altered spatio-temporal patterns of post-fire vegetation regeneration. Fire occurrence data and a vegetation index (NDVI derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR were used to monitor post-fire vegetation from 1989 to 2007. We first investigated differences in post-fire rates of vegetation regeneration between ecoregions. We then related precipitation, temperature, and elevation records at four temporal scales to rates of post-fire vegetation regeneration to ascertain the influence of climate on post-fire vegetation dynamics. We found that broad-scale climate factors are an important influence on post-fire vegetation regeneration. Most notably, higher rates of post-fire regeneration occurred with warmer minimum temperatures. Increases in precipitation also resulted in higher rates of post-fire vegetation growth. While explanatory power was slight, multiple statistical approaches provided evidence for real ecological drivers of post-fire regeneration that should be investigated further at finer scales. The sensitivity of post-disturbance vegetation dynamics to climatic drivers has important ramifications for the management of ecosystems under changing climatic conditions. Shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes are likely to result in changes in post-disturbance dynamics, which could represent important feedbacks into the global climate system.

  2. Effects of vegetation structure on biomass accumulation in a Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A myriad of interactions exist between vegetation and local climate for arid and semi-arid regions. Vegetation function, structure and individual behavior have large impacts on carbon–water–energy balances, which consequently influence local climate variability that, in turn, feeds back to the vegetation. In this study, a conceptual vegetation structure scheme is formulated and tested in the new Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model (BOSVM to explore the importance of vegetation structure and vegetation adaptation to water stress on equilibrium biomass states. Surface energy, water and carbon fluxes are simulated for a range of vegetation structures across a precipitation gradient in West Africa and optimal vegetation structures that maximize biomass for each precipitation regime are determined. Two different strategies of vegetation adaptation to water stress are included. Under dry conditions vegetation tries to maximize the water use efficiency and leaf area index as it tries to maximize carbon gain. However, a negative feedback mechanism in the vegetation–soil water system is found as the vegetation also tries to minimize its cover to optimize the surrounding bare ground area from which water can be extracted, thereby forming patches of vertical vegetation. Under larger precipitation, a positive feedback mechanism is found in which vegetation tries to maximize its cover as it then can reduce water loss from bare soil while having maximum carbon gain due to a large leaf area index. The competition between vegetation and bare soil determines a transition between a "survival" state to a "growing" state.

  3. Unifying Dynamic Prognostic Phenology, Heterogeneous Soil and Vegetation Fluxes, and Ecosystem Biomass and Carbon Stocks To Predict the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle and Land-Atmosphere Exchanges in the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, K. D.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, S.

    2016-12-01

    Future climate projections require process-based models that incorporate the mechanisms and feedbacks controlling the carbon cycle. Over the past three decades, land surface models have been key contributors to Earth system models, evolving from predicting latent (LE) and sensible (SH) heat fluxes to energy and water budgets, momentum transfer, and terrestrial carbon exchange and storage. This study presents the latest version of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB4), which builds on a compilation of previous versions and adds a new mechanistic-based scheme that fully predicts the terrestrial carbon cycle. The main SiB4 updates can be summarized as follows: (i) Incorporation of carbon pools that use new respiration and transfer methods, (ii) Creation of a new dynamic phenology scheme that uses mechanistic-based seasonal stages, and (iii) Unification of carbon pools, phenology and disturbance to close the carbon cycle. SiB4 removes the dependence on satellite-based vegetation indices, and instead uses a single mathematical framework to prognose self-consistent land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, water, energy, radiation, and momentum, as well as carbon storage. Since grasslands cover 30% of land and are highly seasonal, we investigated forty grass sites. Diurnal cycles of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), LE and SH have third-quartile root mean squared (RMS) errors less than 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 1.9 µmol m-2 s-1, 2.0 µmol m-2 s-1, 42 W m-2, and 78 W m-2, respectively. On the synoptic timeframe, all sites have significant LE correlation coefficients of non-seasonal daily data; and all but one have significant SH correlations. Mean seasonal cycles for leaf area index (LAI), GPP, RE, LE, and SH have third-quartile normalized RMS errors less than 32%, 25%, 28%, 16%, and 48%, respectively. On multi-year timescales, daily correlations of LAI, GPP, RE, and LE are all statistically significant, with third-quartile RMS

  4. A contribution to the thermal and aero-dynamical modelling of the urban micro-climate. Analysis of the water and vegetation impact on the comfort conditions in outdoor spaces; Contribution a la modelisation thermo-aeraulique du microclimat urbain. Caracterisation de l'impact de l'eau et de la vegetation sur les conditions de confort en espaces exterieurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinet, J.

    2000-11-01

    In summer, temperatures in cities may rise, thereby inducing the so-called 'urban heat island' and tremendous consequences on outdoor comfort, health risks, pollutant emission and energy consumption. Replacing vegetation and moist surfaces by concrete or asphalt may enhance these problems. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to quantify the impact of vegetation and water on urban micro-climate and comfort through numerical modelling; In the first part, a scientific literature review considers various topics applied to our problem such as urban micro-climate, simulations, urbanism, urban forestry and outdoor thermal comfort. This information is relevant to define and interpret further numerical modelling. Numerical simulations based on the coupling of the SOLENE. thermal program and the N3S CFD code are proposed to model wind flow, air and surface temperatures. The theoretical principles, hypothesis and coupling methodology are presented here. This set of numerical tools is combined in order to help urban or landscape planners, architects and engineers, to analyse the impacts of different projects on micro-climate and on outdoor thermal comfort, under hot summer conditions. To illustrate this approach, an open space in Montpellier (southern France) called the 'Place du Millenaire' and designed by Ricardo Bofill is studied, considering various cases (no vegetation, actual vegetation and vegetation in 30 years). The comparative results demonstrate improvements of urban form, micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort. (author)

  5. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D O; Troyo, A; Beier, J C

    2009-01-01

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  6. El Nino Southern Oscillation and vegetation dynamics as predictors of dengue fever cases in Costa Rica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuller, D O [Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-2221 (United States); Troyo, A [Centro de Investigacion en Enfermedades Tropicales, Departamento de ParasitologIa, Facultad de MicrobiologIa, Universidad de Costa Rica, San Jose (Costa Rica); Beier, J C [Global Public Health Program, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)], E-mail: dofuller@miami.edu

    2009-01-15

    Dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) are growing health concerns throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. This study focuses on Costa Rica, which experienced over 100 000 cases of DF/DHF from 2003 to 2007. We utilized data on sea-surface temperature anomalies related to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and two vegetation indices derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) from the Terra satellite to model the influence of climate and vegetation dynamics on DF/DHF cases in Costa Rica. Cross-correlations were calculated to evaluate both positive and negative lag effects on the relationships between independent variables and DF/DHF cases. The model, which utilizes a sinusoid and non-linear least squares to fit case data, was able to explain 83% of the variance in weekly DF/DHF cases when independent variables were shifted backwards in time. When the independent variables were shifted forward in time, consistently with a forecasting approach, the model explained 64% of the variance. Importantly, when five ENSO and two vegetation indices were included, the model reproduced a major DF/DHF epidemic of 2005. The unexplained variance in the model may be due to herd immunity and vector control measures, although information regarding these aspects of the disease system are generally lacking. Our analysis suggests that the model may be used to predict DF/DHF outbreaks as early as 40 weeks in advance and may also provide valuable information on the magnitude of future epidemics. In its current form it may be used to inform national vector control programs and policies regarding control measures; it is the first climate-based dengue model developed for this country and is potentially scalable to the broader region of Latin America and the Caribbean where dramatic increases in DF/DHF incidence and spread have been observed.

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Nones

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.

  8. Dynamic accelerator modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Hiroshi.

    1993-05-01

    Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

  9. Dynamic panel data models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.

    2013-01-01

    This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.

  10. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2018-01-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  12. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-11-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  13. Advances in monitoring vegetation and land use dynamics in the Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus; Nielsen, Thomas Theis

    2014-01-01

    of CO2 in the atmosphere, grazing pressure, bush fires and agricultural expansion or contraction. The use of satellite data in combination with field data played a major role in the monitoring of vegetation dynamics and land use in the Sahel, since the mega drought of the 1970s and the 1980s. This paper...... briefly reviews the advance of satellite-based monitoring of vegetation dynamics over these 40 years. We discuss the promises of current and likely future data sources and analysis tools, as well as the need to strengthen in situ data collection to support and validate satellite-based vegetation and land...

  14. Optimizing cloud removal from satellite remotely sensed data for monitoring vegetation dynamics in humid tropical climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashim, M; Pour, A B; Onn, C H

    2014-01-01

    Remote sensing technology is an important tool to analyze vegetation dynamics, quantifying vegetation fraction of Earth's agricultural and natural vegetation. In optical remote sensing analysis removing atmospheric interferences, particularly distribution of cloud contaminations, are always a critical task in the tropical climate. This paper suggests a fast and alternative approach to remove cloud and shadow contaminations for Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper + (ETM + ) multi temporal datasets. Band 3 and Band 4 from all the Landsat ETM + dataset are two main spectral bands that are very crucial in this study for cloud removal technique. The Normalise difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalised difference soil index (NDSI) are two main derivatives derived from the datasets. Change vector analysis is used in this study to seek the vegetation dynamics. The approach developed in this study for cloud optimizing can be broadly applicable for optical remote sensing satellite data, which are seriously obscured with heavy cloud contamination in the tropical climate

  15. A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

    2011-11-01

    The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

  16. Vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Epstein, H.E.; Walker, D.A.; Bhatt, U.S.

    2012-01-01

    increased 20-26%. • Increasing shrub growth and range extension throughout the Low Arctic are related to winter and early growing season temperature increases. Growth of other tundra plant types, including graminoids and forbs, is increasing, while growth of mosses and lichens is decreasing. • Increases...... in vegetation (including shrub tundra expansion) and thunderstorm activity, each a result of Arctic warming, have created conditions that favor a more active Arctic fire regime....

  17. [Simulation of vegetation indices optimizing under retrieval of vegetation biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling; Liu, Xiang-Nan; Zhou, Bo-Tian; Liu, Chuan-Hao; Li, Lu-Feng

    2012-12-01

    This study analyzed the sensitivities of three vegetation biochemical parameters [chlorophyll content (Cab), leaf water content (Cw), and leaf area index (LAI)] to the changes of canopy reflectance, with the effects of each parameter on the wavelength regions of canopy reflectance considered, and selected three vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function. Then, the Cab, Cw, and LAI were estimated, based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm and PROSPECT + SAIL model. The results showed that retrieval efficiency with vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function was better than that with all spectral reflectance. The correlation coefficients (R2) between the measured and estimated values of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 90.8%, 95.7%, and 99.7%, and the root mean square errors of Cab, Cw, and LAI were 4.73 microg x cm(-2), 0.001 g x cm(-2), and 0.08, respectively. It was suggested that to adopt vegetation indices as the optimization comparison targets of cost function could effectively improve the efficiency and precision of the retrieval of biochemical parameters based on PROSPECT + SAIL model.

  18. Floodplain rehabilitation in North Cameroon: impact on vegetation dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholte, P.; Kirda, P.; Adam, S.; Kadiri, B.

    2000-01-01

    Since the construction in 1979 of a dam in the Logone floodplain in the Sahelo-Sudanian zone of Cameroon, annual inundations have decreased, reducing perennial vegetation as important grazing source for nomadic herds and wildlife during the dry season. Presently, possibilities exist to release

  19. Groundwater dynamics in mountain peatlands with contrasting climate, vegetation, and hydrogeological setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, David J.; Cooper, David J.; Ronayne, Michael J.

    2018-06-01

    Hydrological dynamics act as a primary control on ecosystem function in mountain peatlands, serving as an important regulator of carbon fluxes. In western North America, mountain peatlands exist in different hydrogeological settings, across a range climatic conditions, and vary in floristic composition. The sustainability of these ecosystems, particularly those at the low end of their known elevation range, is susceptible to a changing climate via changes in the water cycle. We conducted a hydrological investigation of two mountain peatlands, with differing vegetation, hydrogeological setting (sloping vs basin), and climate (strong vs weak monsoon influence). Growing season saturated zone water budgets were modeled on a daily basis, and subsurface flow characterizations were performed during multiple field campaigns at each site. The sloping peatland expectedly showed a strong lateral groundwater potential gradient throughout the growing season. Alternatively, the basin peatland had low lateral gradients but more pronounced vertical gradients. A zero-flux plane was apparent at a depth of approximately 50 cm below the peat surface at the basin peatland; shallow groundwater above this depth moved upward towards the surface via evapotranspiration. The differences in groundwater flow dynamics between the two sites also influenced water budgets. Higher groundwater inflow at the sloping peatland offset higher rates of evapotranspiration losses from the saturated zone, which were apparently driven by differences in vegetative cover. This research revealed that although sloping peatlands cover relatively small portions of mountain watersheds, they provide unique settings where vegetation directly utilizes groundwater for transpiration, which were several-fold higher than typically reported for surrounding uplands.

  20. Corruption dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

    2017-07-01

    The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

  1. Assessing vegetation structure and ANPP dynamics in a grassland-shrubland Chihuahuan ecotone using NDVI-rainfall relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Diaz-Sierra, R.; Turnbull, L.; Wainwright, J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and the widespread alteration of natural habitats are major drivers of vegetation change in drylands. A classic case of vegetation change is the shrub-encroachment process that has been taking place over the last 150 years in the Chihuahuan Desert, where large areas of grasslands dominated by perennial grass species (black grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and blue grama, B. gracilis) have transitioned to shrublands dominated by woody species (creosotebush, Larrea tridentata, and mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa), accompanied by accelerated water and wind erosion. Multiple mechanisms drive the shrub-encroachment process, including exogenous triggering factors such as precipitation variations and land-use change, and endogenous amplifying mechanisms brought about by soil erosion-vegetation feedbacks. In this study, simulations of plant biomass dynamics with a simple modelling framework indicate that herbaceous (grasses and forbs) and shrub vegetation in drylands have different responses to antecedent precipitation due to functional differences in plant growth and water-use patterns, and therefore shrub encroachment may be reflected in the analysis of landscape-scale vegetation-rainfall relationships. We analyze the structure and dynamics of vegetation at an 18 km2 grassland-shrubland ecotone in the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert (McKenzie Flats, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, NM, USA) by investigating the relationship between decade-scale (2000-2013) records of medium-resolution remote sensing of vegetation greenness (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation. Spatial evaluation of NDVI-rainfall relationship at the studied ecotone indicates that herbaceous vegetation shows quick growth pulses associated with short-term (previous 2 months) precipitation, while shrubs show a slow response to medium-term (previous 5 months) precipitation. We use these relationships to (a) classify landscape types as a function of the spatial distribution of dominant vegetation

  2. Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

    2018-02-01

    Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

  3. DYNAMIC LOAD DAMPER MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loktev Aleksey Alekseevich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors present their findings associated with their modeling of a dynamic load damper. According to the authors, the damper is to be installed onto a structure or its element that may be exposed to impact, vibration or any other dynamic loading. The damper is composed of paralleled or consecutively connected viscous and elastic elements. The authors study the influence of viscosity and elasticity parameters of the damper produced onto the regular displacement of points of the structure to be protected and onto the regular acceleration transmitted immediately from the damper to the elements positioned below it.

  4. Modeling soil water content for vegetation modeling improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cianfrani, Carmen; Buri, Aline; Zingg, Barbara; Vittoz, Pascal; Verrecchia, Eric; Guisan, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    adjusted-R2 ranging from 0.55 to 0.65. Bivariate models with higher performance were the one using OM and river distance for pF 2.7.We found that adding SWC improves vegetation models. It improves 51%-64% (depending on pF) of plant SDMs. In 6-10% of SDMs, SWC was the most important variable. In conclusion, this study emphasized that important information is still missing in SDMs to capture all abiotic drivers of plant species distributions.

  5. Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

    2018-04-01

    Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

  6. Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubovyk, Olena; Landmann, Tobias; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; Tewes, Andreas; Schellberg, Jürgen

    2015-06-01

    Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000-2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000-2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.

  7. Vegetation Variability And Its Effect On Monsoon Rainfall Over South East Asia: Observational and Modeling Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chiu, L.; Kafatos, M.

    2005-12-01

    Increasing population and urbanization have created stress on developing nations. The quickly shifting patterns of vegetation change in different parts of the world have given rise to the pertinent question of feedback on the climate prevailing on local to regional scales. It is now known with some certainty, that vegetation changes can affect the climate by influencing the heat and water balance. The hydrological cycle particularly is susceptible to changes in vegetation. The Monsoon rainfall forms a vital link in the hydrological cycle prevailing over South East Asia This work examines the variability of vegetation over South East Asia and assesses its impact on the monsoon rainfall. We explain the role of changing vegetation and show how this change has affected the heat and energy balance. We demonstrate the role of vegetation one season earlier in influencing rainfall intensity over specific areas in South East Asia and show the ramification of vegetation change on the summer rainfall behavior. The vegetation variability study specifically focuses on India and China, two of the largest and most populous nations. We have done an assessment to find out the key meteorological and human induced parameters affecting vegetation over the study area through a spatial analysis of monthly NDVI values. This study highlights the role of monsoon rainfall, regional climate dynamics and large scale human induced pollution to be the crucial factors governing the vegetation and vegetation distribution. The vegetation is seen to follow distinct spatial patterns that have been found to be crucial in its eventual impact on monsoon rainfall. We have carried out a series of sensitivity experiments using a land surface hydrologic modeling scheme. The vital energy and water balance parameters are identified and the daily climatological cycles are examined for possible change in behavior for different boundary conditions. It is found that the change from native deciduous forest

  8. State-and-transition prototype model of riparian vegetation downstream of Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralston, Barbara E.; Starfield, Anthony M.; Black, Ronald S.; Van Lonkhuyzen, Robert A.

    2014-01-01

    Facing an altered riparian plant community dominated by nonnative species, resource managers are increasingly interested in understanding how to manage and promote healthy riparian habitats in which native species dominate. For regulated rivers, managing flows is one tool resource managers consider to achieve these goals. Among many factors that can influence riparian community composition, hydrology is a primary forcing variable. Frame-based models, used successfully in grassland systems, provide an opportunity for stakeholders concerned with riparian systems to evaluate potential riparian vegetation responses to alternative flows. Frame-based, state-and-transition models of riparian vegetation for reattachment bars, separation bars, and the channel margin found on the Colorado River downstream of Glen Canyon Dam were constructed using information from the literature. Frame-based models can be simple spreadsheet models (created in Microsoft® Excel) or developed further with programming languages (for example, C-sharp). The models described here include seven community states and five dam operations that cause transitions between states. Each model divides operations into growing (April–September) and non-growing seasons (October–March) and incorporates upper and lower bar models, using stage elevation as a division. The inputs (operations) can be used by stakeholders to evaluate flows that may promote dynamic riparian vegetation states, or identify those flow options that may promote less desirable states (for example, Tamarisk [Tamarix sp.] temporarily flooded shrubland). This prototype model, although simple, can still elicit discussion about operational options and vegetation response.

  9. Response of alpine vegetation growth dynamics to snow cover phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Wu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine vegetation plays a crucial role in global energy cycles with snow cover, an essential component of alpine land cover showing high sensitivity to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a typical alpine vegetation ecosystem and is rich of snow resources. With global warming, the snow of the TP has undergone significant changes that will inevitably affect the growth of alpine vegetation, but observed evidence of such interaction is limited. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of the responses of alpine vegetation growth to snow cover variability is still not well characterized on TP region. To investigate this, we calculated three indicators, the start (SOS) and length (LOS) of growing season, and the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) as proxies of vegetation growth dynamics from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2000-2015. Snow cover duration (SCD) and melt (SCM) dates were also extracted during the same time frame from the combination of MODIS and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data. We found that the snow cover phenology had a strong control on alpine vegetation growth dynamics. Furthermore, the responses of SOS, LOS and NDVImax to snow cover phenology varied among plant functional types, eco-geographical zones, and temperature and precipitation gradients. The alpine steppes showed a much stronger negative correlation between SOS and SCD, and also a more evidently positive relationship between LOS and SCD than other types, indicating a longer SCD would lead to an earlier SOS and longer LOS. Most areas showed positive correlation between SOS and SCM, while a contrary response was also found in the warm but drier areas. Both SCD and SCM showed positive correlations with NDVImax, but the relationship became weaker with the increase of precipitation. Our findings provided strong evidences between vegetation growth and snow cover phenology, and changes in

  10. Dynamic wake meandering modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Gunner C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Bingoel, F. (and others)

    2007-06-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by analytical as well as by numerical studies. The dynamic wake meandering philosophy has been verified by comparing model predictions with extensive full-scale measurements. These comparisons have demonstrated good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as

  11. Dynamic of biogeochemical selenium cycle in terrestrial ecosystems: retention and reactivity in soil; role of vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Tullo, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    This work was performed in the frame of the safety assessment program prior to the possible construction of an underground repository for nuclear waste (HAVL). To consolidate risk assessment models associated to a potential 79 Se biosphere contamination, biogeochemistry of stable selenium was investigated, aiming firstly to highlight the dynamics of Se cycling in a forest ecosystem, in terms of inventories and annual fluxes. Consequently to these first results, which suggest a clay role of soil and its organic pool in the global Se cycle, two studies based on the use of isotopically enriched tracers were further carried out in order to clarify the processes involved in (i) Se retention and reactivity in soils and (ii) incorporation of inorganic Se within organic pool of vegetal biomass. (author) [fr

  12. Dynamical chiral bag model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colanero, K.; Chu, M.-C.

    2002-01-01

    We study a dynamical chiral bag model, in which massless fermions are confined within an impenetrable but movable bag coupled to meson fields. The self-consistent motion of the bag is obtained by solving the equations of motion exactly assuming spherical symmetry. When the bag interacts with an external meson wave we find three different kinds of resonances: fermionic, geometric, and σ resonances. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our results

  13. Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2013-07-02

    The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

  14. Global changes in dryland vegetation dynamics (1988–2008 assessed by satellite remote sensing: comparing a new passive microwave vegetation density record with reflective greenness data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Andela

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Drylands, covering nearly 30% of the global land surface, are characterized by high climate variability and sensitivity to land management. Here, two satellite-observed vegetation products were used to study the long-term (1988–2008 vegetation changes of global drylands: the widely used reflective-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and the recently developed passive-microwave-based Vegetation Optical Depth (VOD. The NDVI is sensitive to the chlorophyll concentrations in the canopy and the canopy cover fraction, while the VOD is sensitive to vegetation water content of both leafy and woody components. Therefore it can be expected that using both products helps to better characterize vegetation dynamics, particularly over regions with mixed herbaceous and woody vegetation. Linear regression analysis was performed between antecedent precipitation and observed NDVI and VOD independently to distinguish the contribution of climatic and non-climatic drivers in vegetation variations. Where possible, the contributions of fire, grazing, agriculture and CO2 level to vegetation trends were assessed. The results suggest that NDVI is more sensitive to fluctuations in herbaceous vegetation, which primarily uses shallow soil water, whereas VOD is more sensitive to woody vegetation, which additionally can exploit deeper water stores. Globally, evidence is found for woody encroachment over drylands. In the arid drylands, woody encroachment appears to be at the expense of herbaceous vegetation and a global driver is interpreted. Trends in semi-arid drylands vary widely between regions, suggesting that local rather than global drivers caused most of the vegetation response. In savannas, besides precipitation, fire regime plays an important role in shaping trends. Our results demonstrate that NDVI and VOD provide complementary information and allow new insights into dryland vegetation dynamics.

  15. CHEMIFOGV - A Model to Simulate Radiation Fogs and their Interaction with Vegetation and Chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterrath, Tanja; Bott, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    Radiation fog is an important modifier of atmospheric compounds in the planetary boundary layer. In vegetated areas effects are especially pronounced due to the enlarged surface area. Besides affecting the lower boundary of atmospheric models fog acts as a multi-phase reaction chamber leading to acid deposition. Here we present the 1-dimensional radiation fog modelCHEMIFOG V to simulate regional radiation fog events. The key feature of the fog model is the detailed microphysics, where the aerosol/droplet spectrum is described with a joint 2-dimensional distribution, but also the dynamics, thermodynamics, and radiative transfer are calculated. To investigate the interaction between fog and the biosphere a multi-layer vegetation module, including a soil module as well as a dry deposition module were coupled. Vegetation influences the dynamics, thermodynamics, and the radiation field of the lowest atmospheric layers. With CHEMIFOG V , numerical case studies on dry and moist deposition processes on vegetation surfaces were performed. Hereby multi-phase chemistry and the processing of aerosols were considered. The results show that the chemical composition of the deposited fog droplets is mainly determined by the aerosol composition. Dry deposition fluxes are dependent on the incoming radiation and the leaves' surface conditions with respect to water coverage.Due to chemical aerosol processing and deposition, the aerosol spectrum is significantly modified in the planetary boundary layer

  16. Modeling mechanisms of vegetation change due to fire in a semi-arid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J.D.; Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.; Randall, L.J.; Swint, P.

    2008-01-01

    Vegetation growth and community composition in semi-arid environments is determined by water availability and carbon assimilation mechanisms specific to different plant types. Disturbance also impacts vegetation productivity and composition dependent on area affected, intensity, and frequency factors. In this study, a new spatially explicit ecosystem model is presented for the purpose of simulating vegetation cover type changes associated with fire disturbance in the northern Chihuahuan Desert region. The model is called the Landscape and Fire Simulator (LAFS) and represents physiological activity of six functional plant types incorporating site climate, fire, and seed dispersal routines for individual grid cells. We applied this model for Big Bend National Park, Texas, by assessing the impact of wildfire on the trajectory of vegetation communities over time. The model was initialized and calibrated based on landcover maps derived from Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data acquired in 1986 and 1999 coupled with plant biomass measurements collected in the field during 2000. Initial vegetation cover change analysis from satellite data showed shrub encroachment during this time period that was captured in the simulated results. A synthetic 50-year climate record was derived from historical meteorological data to assess system response based on initial landcover conditions. This simulation showed that shrublands increased to the detriment of grass and yucca-ocotillo vegetation cover types indicating an ecosystem-level trajectory for shrub encroachment. Our analysis of simulated fires also showed that fires significantly reduced site biomass components including leaf area, stem, and seed biomass in this semi-arid ecosystem. In contrast to other landscape simulation models, this new model incorporates detailed physiological responses of functional plant types that will allow us to simulated the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 occurring with climate change coupled with fire

  17. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

    2013-01-01

    An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

  18. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic codes in general use for system calculations are based on extensive analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents following the postulated rupture of a large coolant pipe. In this study, time-dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into the RETRAN-02 computer code. This model addition was undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. The dynamic slip equation was derived from a set of two-fluid conservation equations. 18 refs

  19. Stochastic soil water dynamics of phreatophyte vegetation with dimorphic root systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, R.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2009-01-01

    As the direct uptake of deep groundwater by vegetation may be essential in semiarid regions, we incorporated this process in stochastic root zone water balance models. The direct water uptake by vegetation via deep tap roots is simulated using one additional empirical parameter. This is considered

  20. Deriving Vegetation Dynamics of Natural Terrestrial Ecosystems from MODIS NDVI/EVI Data over Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evrendilek, Fatih; Gulbeyaz, Onder

    2008-09-01

    The 16-day composite MODIS vegetation indices (VIs) at 500-m resolution for the period between 2000 to 2007 were seasonally averaged on the basis of the estimated distribution of 16 potential natural terrestrial ecosystems (NTEs) across Turkey. Graphical and statistical analyses of the time-series VIs for the NTEs spatially disaggregated in terms of biogeoclimate zones and land cover types included descriptive statistics, correlations, discrete Fourier transform (DFT), time-series decomposition, and simple linear regression (SLR) models. Our spatio-temporal analyses revealed that both MODIS VIs, on average, depicted similar seasonal variations for the NTEs, with the NDVI values having higher mean and SD values. The seasonal VIs were most correlated in decreasing order for: barren/sparsely vegetated land > grassland > shrubland/woodland > forest; (sub)nival > warm temperate > alpine > cool temperate > boreal = Mediterranean; and summer > spring > autumn > winter. Most pronounced differences between the MODIS VI responses over Turkey occurred in boreal and Mediterranean climate zones and forests, and in winter (the senescence phase of the growing season). Our results showed the potential of the time-series MODIS VI datasets in the estimation and monitoring of seasonal and interannual ecosystem dynamics over Turkey that needs to be further improved and refined through systematic and extensive field measurements and validations across various biomes.

  1. Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

    2012-12-01

    Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these

  2. Vegetable parenting practices scale: Item response modeling analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our objective was to evaluate the psychometric properties of a vegetable parenting practices scale using multidimensional polytomous item response modeling which enables assessing item fit to latent variables and the distributional characteristics of the items in comparison to the respondents. We al...

  3. Stochastic radiative transfer model for mixture of discontinuous vegetation canopies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shabanov, Nikolay V.; Huang, D.; Knjazikhin, Y.; Dickinson, R.E.; Myneni, Ranga B.

    2007-01-01

    Modeling of the radiation regime of a mixture of vegetation species is a fundamental problem of the Earth's land remote sensing and climate applications. The major existing approaches, including the linear mixture model and the turbid medium (TM) mixture radiative transfer model, provide only an approximate solution to this problem. In this study, we developed the stochastic mixture radiative transfer (SMRT) model, a mathematically exact tool to evaluate radiation regime in a natural canopy with spatially varying optical properties, that is, canopy, which exhibits a structured mixture of vegetation species and gaps. The model solves for the radiation quantities, direct input to the remote sensing/climate applications: mean radiation fluxes over whole mixture and over individual species. The canopy structure is parameterized in the SMRT model in terms of two stochastic moments: the probability of finding species and the conditional pair-correlation of species. The second moment is responsible for the 3D radiation effects, namely, radiation streaming through gaps without interaction with vegetation and variation of the radiation fluxes between different species. We performed analytical and numerical analysis of the radiation effects, simulated with the SMRT model for the three cases of canopy structure: (a) non-ordered mixture of species and gaps (TM); (b) ordered mixture of species without gaps; and (c) ordered mixture of species with gaps. The analysis indicates that the variation of radiation fluxes between different species is proportional to the variation of species optical properties (leaf albedo, density of foliage, etc.) Gaps introduce significant disturbance to the radiation regime in the canopy as their optical properties constitute major contrast to those of any vegetation species. The SMRT model resolves deficiencies of the major existing mixture models: ignorance of species radiation coupling via multiple scattering of photons (the linear mixture model

  4. Contact dynamics math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.

  5. Evaluation of one dimensional analytical models for vegetation canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Narendra S.; Kuusk, Andres

    1992-01-01

    The SAIL model for one-dimensional homogeneous vegetation canopies has been modified to include the specular reflectance and hot spot effects. This modified model and the Nilson-Kuusk model are evaluated by comparing the reflectances given by them against those given by a radiosity-based computer model, Diana, for a set of canopies, characterized by different leaf area index (LAI) and leaf angle distribution (LAD). It is shown that for homogeneous canopies, the analytical models are generally quite accurate in the visible region, but not in the infrared region. For architecturally realistic heterogeneous canopies of the type found in nature, these models fall short. These shortcomings are quantified.

  6. Statistical Models for Inferring Vegetation Composition from Fossil Pollen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paciorek, C.; McLachlan, J. S.; Shang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Fossil pollen provide information about vegetation composition that can be used to help understand how vegetation has changed over the past. However, these data have not traditionally been analyzed in a way that allows for statistical inference about spatio-temporal patterns and trends. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model called STEPPS (Spatio-Temporal Empirical Prediction from Pollen in Sediments) that predicts forest composition in southern New England, USA, over the last two millenia based on fossil pollen. The critical relationships between abundances of tree taxa in the pollen record and abundances in actual vegetation are estimated using modern (Forest Inventory Analysis) data and (witness tree) data from colonial records. This gives us two time points at which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available. Based on these relationships, and incorporating our uncertainty about them, we predict forest composition using fossil pollen. We estimate the spatial distribution and relative abundances of tree species and draw inference about how these patterns have changed over time. Finally, we describe ongoing work to extend the modeling to the upper Midwest of the U.S., including an approach to infer tree density and thereby estimate the prairie-forest boundary in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This work is part of the PalEON project, which brings together a team of ecosystem modelers, paleoecologists, and statisticians with the goal of reconstructing vegetation responses to climate during the last two millenia in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The estimates from the statistical modeling will be used to assess and calibrate ecosystem models that are used to project ecological changes in response to global change.

  7. Climate, people, fire and vegetation: new insights into vegetation dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean since the 1st century AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bakker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Anatolia forms a bridge between Europe, Africa and Asia and is influenced by all three continents in terms of climate, vegetation and human civilisation. Unfortunately, well-dated palynological records focussing on the period from the end of the classical Roman period until subrecent times are rare for Anatolia and completely absent for southwest Turkey, resulting in a lacuna in knowledge concerning the interactions of climatic change, human impact, and environmental change in this important region. Two well-dated palaeoecological records from the Western Taurus Mountains, Turkey, provide a first relatively detailed record of vegetation dynamics from late Roman times until the present in SW Turkey. Combining pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, sedimentological, archaeological data, and newly developed multivariate numerical analyses allows for the disentangling of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation change. Results show changes in both the regional pollen signal as well as local soil sediment characteristics match shifts in regional climatic conditions. Both climatic as well as anthropogenic change had a strong influence on vegetation dynamics and land use. A moist environmental trend during the late-3rd century caused an increase in marshes and wetlands in the moister valley floors, limiting possibilities for intensive crop cultivation at such locations. A mid-7th century shift to pastoralism coincided with a climatic deterioration as well as the start of Arab incursions into the region, the former driving the way in which the vegetation developed afterwards. Resurgence in agriculture was observed in the study during the mid-10th century AD, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. An abrupt mid-12th century decrease in agriculture is linked to socio-political change, rather than the onset of the Little Ice Age. Similarly, gradual deforestation occurring from the 16th century onwards has been linked to changes in

  8. Parameterization of a bucket model for soil-vegetation-atmosphere modeling under seasonal climatic regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Romano

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the potential impact of accounting for seasonal variations in the climatic forcing and using different methods to parameterize the soil water content at field capacity on the water balance components computed by a bucket model (BM. The single-layer BM of Guswa et al. (2002 is employed, whereas the Richards equation (RE based Soil Water Atmosphere Plant (SWAP model is used as a benchmark model. The results are analyzed for two differently-textured soils and for some synthetic runs under real-like seasonal weather conditions, using stochastically-generated daily rainfall data for a period of 100 years. Since transient soil-moisture dynamics and climatic seasonality play a key role in certain zones of the World, such as in Mediterranean land areas, a specific feature of this study is to test the prediction capability of the bucket model under a condition where seasonal variations in rainfall are not in phase with the variations in plant transpiration. Reference is made to a hydrologic year in which we have a rainy period (starting 1 November and lasting 151 days where vegetation is basically assumed in a dormant stage, followed by a drier and rainless period with a vegetation regrowth phase. Better agreement between BM and RE-SWAP intercomparison results are obtained when BM is parameterized by a field capacity value determined through the drainage method proposed by Romano and Santini (2002. Depending on the vegetation regrowth or dormant seasons, rainfall variability within a season results in transpiration regimes and soil moisture fluctuations with distinctive features. During the vegetation regrowth season, transpiration exerts a key control on soil water budget with respect to rainfall. During the dormant season of vegetation, the precipitation regime becomes an important climate forcing. Simulations also highlight the occurrence of bimodality in the probability distribution of soil moisture during the season when plants are

  9. Erosion-vegetation dynamics in the Lucciolabella biancane badland cultural landscape (Southern Tuscany, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maccherini, Simona; Vergari, Francesca; Santi, Elisa; Marignani, Michela; Della Seta, Marta; Rossi, Mauro; Torri, Dino; Del Monte, Maurizio

    2014-05-01

    In this work we present the results of multidisciplinary and long-lasting investigations on the complex cause-effect relationship among water erosion processes and vegetation cover on the Lucciolabella Natural Reserve, located in Upper Orcia Valley (Southern Tuscany). The area is a Site of Community Importance, where the cultural landscape of biancane badlands - water erosion landforms generated on Plio-Pleistocene marine clay outcrops - is preserved. We explored the direction and rate of change in land use and natural habitats of the biancana badland landscapes over the last 50 years, evaluating the erosion-vegetation dynamics and examining the processes involved in the biancana badland area. Historical information, such as early cadastral documents and diachronically analyzed aerial photographs, has been used to construct a database of the natural trends of modifications relative to habitat and plant species distribution, with the analysis of the consequent variations on the frequency of instability events. Old and recent land use maps were compared by using the TWINSPAN classification. Soil erodibility evaluation on the eroded biancana surfaces, regosols and well-developed vertisols, was carried out together with a decadal erosion monitoring program and the investigation of the physico-chemical properties of parent material. We also considered the effects of a few roots on saturated soil shear strength to introduce direct links between plants and soil processes. Moreover we run the LANDPLANER model in order to deepen the effect of the fragmentation of the vegetation cover on water erosion processes affecting biancana badlands. Long-lasting geomorphological survey and field erosion monitoring highlighted that biancana stations experience a very strong surface lowering rate due to water erosion, attaining an average rate of 2.4 - 2.6 cm/a. Moreover, biancanas in a more juvenile development phase, such as the ones of Lucciolabella Natural Reserve, show the maximum

  10. Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics and water/energy exchange at high latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Wirth, C.; Apps, M.; Beringer, J.; Clein, J.; Epstein, H.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Bhatti, J.; Chapin, F. S.; De Groot, B.; Efremov, D.; Eugster, W.; Fukuda, M.; Gower, T.; Hinzman, L.; Huntley, B.; Jia, G.J.; Kasischke, E.; Melillo, J.; Romanovsky, V.; Shvidenko, A.; Vaganov, E.; Walker, D.

    2002-01-01

    The responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change involve complex interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water and energy exchange. These responses may have important consequences for the earth system. In this study, we evaluated how vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange are related to environmental variation spanned by the network of the IGBP high latitude transects. While the most notable feature of the high latitude transects is that they generally span temperature gradients from southern to northern latitudes, there are substantial differences in temperature among the transects. Also, along each transect temperature co-varies with precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation, which are also variable among the transects. Both climate and disturbance interact to influence latitudinal patterns of vegetation and soil carbon storage among the transects, and vegetation distribution appears to interact with climate to determine exchanges of heat and moisture in high latitudes. Despite limitations imposed by the data we assembled, the analyses in this study have taken an important step toward clarifying the complexity of interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange in high latitude regions. This study reveals the need to conduct coordinated global change studies in high latitudes to further elucidate how interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation distribution influence carbon dynamics and water and energy exchange in high latitudes.

  11. Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

    2016-10-01

    We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  12. The role of ice dynamics in shaping vegetation in flowing waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Polvi, Lina E; Weber, Christine

    2014-11-01

    Ice dynamics is an important factor affecting vegetation in high-altitude and high-latitude streams and rivers. During the last few decades, knowledge about ice in streams and rivers has increased significantly and a respectable body of literature is now available. Here we review the literature on how ice dynamics influence riparian and aquatic vegetation. Traditionally, plant ecologists have focused their studies on the summer period, largely ignoring the fact that processes during winter also impact vegetation dynamics. For example, the freeze-up period in early winter may result in extensive formation of underwater ice that can restructure the channel, obstruct flow, and cause flooding and thus formation of more ice. In midwinter, slow-flowing reaches develop a surface-ice cover that accumulates snow, protecting habitats under the ice from formation of underwater ice but also reducing underwater light, thus suppressing photosynthesis. Towards the end of winter, ice breaks up and moves downstream. During this transport, ice floes can jam up and cause floods and major erosion. The magnitudes of the floods and their erosive power mainly depend on the size of the watercourse, also resulting in different degrees of disturbance to the vegetation. Vegetation responds both physically and physiologically to ice dynamics. Physical action involves the erosive force of moving ice and damage caused by ground frost, whereas physiological effects - mostly cell damage - happen as a result of plants freezing into the ice. On a community level, large magnitudes of ice dynamics seem to favour species richness, but can be detrimental for individual plants. Human impacts, such as flow regulation, channelisation, agriculturalisation and water pollution have modified ice dynamics; further changes are expected as a result of current and predicted future climate change. Human impacts and climate change can both favour and disfavour riverine vegetation dynamics. Restoration of streams

  13. Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. S.

    2001-05-01

    Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

  14. The general dynamic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James

    2016-01-01

    Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... of evolutionary processes in simulations derived from the mechanistic assumptions of the GDM corresponded broadly to those initially suggested, with the exception of trends in extinction rates. Expanding the model to incorporate different scenarios of island ontogeny and isolation revealed a sensitivity...

  15. Long-term dynamics of the hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius and its relationship with vegetation structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ameloot, Els; Verheyen, Kris; Bakker, Jan P.; De Vries, Yzaak; Hermy, Martin

    2006-01-01

    Questions: 1. How are the long-term dynamics of the root hemiparasite Rhinanthus angustifolius related to vegetation structure, grassland management and climate? 2. Does R. angustifolius have a long-term impact on standing crop and community composition? Location: A formerly fertilized grassland,

  16. Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Shea

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives. Edited by R. B. Singh, Udo Schickhoff, and Suraj Mal. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016. xvi + 399 pp. Hardcover: US$ 179.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28975-5. E-book: US$ 139.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28977-9.

  17. Using RapidEye and MODIS Data Fusion to Monitor Vegetation Dynamics in Semi-Arid Rangelands in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Tewes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Image time series of high temporal and spatial resolution capture land surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes. We applied the ESTARFM (Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model algorithm to multi-spectral images covering two semi-arid heterogeneous rangeland study sites located in South Africa. MODIS 250 m resolution and RapidEye 5 m resolution images were fused to produce synthetic RapidEye images, from June 2011 to July 2012. We evaluated the performance of the algorithm by comparing predicted surface reflectance values to real RapidEye images. Our results show that ESTARFM predictions are accurate, with a coefficient of determination for the red band 0.80 < R2 < 0.92, and for the near-infrared band 0.83 < R2 < 0.93, a mean relative bias between 6% and 12% for the red band and 4% to 9% in the near-infrared band. Heterogeneous vegetation at sub-MODIS resolution is captured adequately: A comparison of NDVI time series derived from RapidEye and ESTARFM data shows that the characteristic phenological dynamics of different vegetation types are reproduced well. We conclude that the ESTARFM algorithm allows us to produce synthetic remote sensing images at high spatial combined with high temporal resolution and so provides valuable information on vegetation dynamics in semi-arid, heterogeneous rangeland landscapes.

  18. The role of deep nitrogen and dynamic rooting profiles on vegetation dynamics and productivity in response to permafrost thaw and climate change in Arctic tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, R. E.; Helene, G.; Taylor, D. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Mack, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    The release of permafrost-derived nitrogen (N) has the potential to fertilize tundra vegetation, modulating plant competition, stimulating productivity, and offsetting carbon losses from thawing permafrost. Dynamic rooting, mycorrhizal interactions, and coupling of N availability and root N uptake have been identified as gaps in ecosystem models. As a first step towards understanding whether Arctic plants can access deep permafrost-derived N, we characterized rooting profiles and quantified acquisition of 15N tracer applied at the permafrost boundary by moist acidic tundra plants subjected to almost three decades of warming at Toolik Lake, Alaska. In the ambient control plots the vegetation biomass is distributed between five plant functional types (PFTs): sedges, evergreen and deciduous shrubs, mosses and in lower abundance, forbs. The warming treatment has resulted in the increase of deciduous shrub biomass and the loss of sedges, evergreen shrubs, and mosses. We harvested roots by depth increment down to the top of the permafrost. Roots were classified by size class and PFT. The average thaw depth in the warmed plots was 58.3 cm ± 6.4 S.E., close to 18 cm deeper than the average thaw depth in the ambient plots (40.8 cm ± 1.8 S.E.). Across treatments the deepest rooting species was Rubus chamaemorus (ambient 40.8 cm ± 1.8 S.E., warmed 50.3 cm ± 9.8 S.E.), a non-mycorrhizal forb, followed by Eriophorum vaginatum, a non-mycorrhizal sedge. Ectomycorrhizal deciduous and ericoid mycorrhizal evergreen shrubs were rooted at more shallow depths. Deeply rooted non-mycorrhizal species had the greatest uptake of 15N tracer within 24 hours across treatments. Tracer uptake was greatest for roots of E. vaginatum in ambient plots and R. chamaemorus in warmed plots. Root profiles were integrated into a process-based ecosystem model coupled with a dynamic vegetation model. Functions modeling dynamic rooting profile relative to thaw depth were implemented for each PFT. The

  19. A Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Coupled Riparian Vegetation-Geomorphic Response to Altered Flow Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manners, R.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    The ecogeomorphic response of riparian ecosystems to a change in hydrologic properties is difficult to predict because of the interactions and feedbacks among plants, water, and sediment. Most riparian models of community dynamics assume a static channel, yet geomorphic processes strongly control the establishment and survival of riparian vegetation. Using a combination of approaches that includes empirical relationships and hydrodynamic models, we model the coupled vegetation-topographic response of three cross-sections on the Yampa and Green Rivers in Dinosaur National Monument, to a shift in the flow regime. The locations represent the variable geomorphology and vegetation composition of these canyon-bound rivers. We account for the inundation and hydraulic properties of vegetation plots surveyed over three years within International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) Fastmech, equipped with a vegetation module that accounts for flexible stems and plant reconfiguration. The presence of functional groupings of plants, or those plants that respond similarly to environmental factors such as water availability and disturbance are determined from flow response curves developed for the Yampa River. Using field measurements of vegetation morphology, distance from the channel centerline, and dominant particle size and modeled inundation properties we develop an empirical relationship between these variables and topographic change. We evaluate vegetation and channel form changes over decadal timescales, allowing for the integration of processes over time. From our analyses, we identify thresholds in the flow regime that alter the distribution of plants and reduce geomorphic complexity, predominately through side-channel and backwater infilling. Simplification of some processes (e.g., empirically-derived sedimentation) and detailed treatment of others (e.g., plant-flow interactions) allows us to model the coupled dynamics of riparian ecosystems and evaluate the impact of

  20. Dynamic Linear Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

  1. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  2. An ecohydrological model for studying groundwater-vegetation interactions in wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Ting Fong May; Low, Swee Yang; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2011-10-01

    SummaryDespite their importance to the natural environment, wetlands worldwide face drastic degradation from changes in land use and climatic patterns. To help preservation efforts and guide conservation strategies, a clear understanding of the dynamic relationship between coupled hydrology and vegetation systems in wetlands, and their responses to engineering works and climate change, is needed. An ecohydrological model was developed in this study to address this issue. The model combines a hydrology component based on the Richards' equation for characterizing variably saturated groundwater flow, with a vegetation component described by Lotka-Volterra equations tailored for plant growth. Vegetation is represented by two characteristic wetland herbaceous plant types which differ in their flood and drought resistances. Validation of the model on a study site in the Everglades demonstrated the capability of the model in capturing field-measured water table and transpiration dynamics. The model was next applied on a section of the Nee Soon swamp forest, a tropical wetland in Singapore, for studying the impact of possible drainage works on the groundwater hydrology and native vegetation. Drainage of 10 m downstream of the wetland resulted in a localized zone of influence within half a kilometer from the drainage site with significant adverse impacts on groundwater and biomass levels, indicating a strong need for conservation. Simulated water table-plant biomass relationships demonstrated the capability of the model in capturing the time-lag in biomass response to water table changes. To test the significance of taking plant growth into consideration, the performance of the model was compared to one that substituted the vegetation component with a pre-specified evapotranspiration rate. Unlike its revised counterpart, the original ecohydrological model explicitly accounted for the drainage-induced plant biomass decrease and translated the resulting reduced transpiration

  3. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process. It is the most important disturbance worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomes affected; a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere (2-4 Pg per annum, equiv. 20-30% of global fossil fuel emissions over the last decade); and globally a significant source of particulate aerosols and trace greenhouse gases. Fire is also potentially important as a feedback in the climate system. If climate change favours more intense fire regimes, this would result in a net transfer of carbon from ecosystems to the atmosphere, as well as higher emissions, and under certain circumstances, increased troposphere ozone production- all contributing to positive climate-land surface feedbacks. Quantitative analysis of fire-vegetation-climate interactions has been held back until recently by a lack of consistent global data sets on fire, and by the underdeveloped state of dynamic vegetation-fire modelling. Dynamic vegetation-fire modelling is an essential part of our forecasting armory for examining the possible impacts of climate, fire regimes and land-use on ecosystems and emissions from biomass burning beyond the observation period, as part of future climate or paleo-climate studies. LPJ-GUESS is a process-based model of vegetation dynamics designed for regional to global applications. It combines features of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) with those of the General Ecosystem Simulator (GUESS) in a single, flexible modelling framework. The models have identical representations of eco-physiological and biogeochemical processes, including the hydrological cycle. However, they differ in the detail with which vegetation dynamics and canopy structure are simulated. Simplified, computationally efficient representations are used in the LPJ-DGVM, while LPJ-GUESS employs a gap-model approach, which better captures ecological succession and hence ecosystem changes due to

  4. Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated

  5. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  6. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.

    Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote

  7. Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

    Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat

  8. Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delcourt, H R; Delcourt, P A; Webb, T III

    1983-01-01

    Different environmental forcing functions influence vegetational patterns and processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the micro-scale (1 year to 5 x 10/sup 3/ years, 1 m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/) natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect establishment and succession of species populations. At the macro-scale (5 x 10/sup 3/ years to 10/sup 6/ years and 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/) climatic changes influence regional vegetational processes that include migrations of species as well as displacement of ecosystems. Mega-scale phenomena such as plate tectonics, evolution of the biota and development of global patterns of vegetation occur on the time scale of > 10/sup 6/ years and over areas > 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/. Our knowledge of past vegetational changes resulting from Quaternary climatic change can be used to predict biotic responses to future climatic changes such as global warming that may be induced by increased carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentrations in the atmosphere. The time scale for future climatic warming may be much more rapid than that characterizing the early- to mid-Holocene, increasing the probability of rapid turnover in species composition, changes in local and regional dominance of important taxa, displacement of species ranges and local extinction of species. Integration of ecological and paleoecological perspectives on vegetational dynamics is fundamental to understanding and managing the biosphere.

  9. Analysis of Decadal Vegetation Dynamics Using Multi-Scale Satellite Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Y.; Chen, K.

    2013-12-01

    This study aims at quantifying vegetation fractional cover (VFC) by incorporating multi-resolution satellite images, including Formosat-2(RSI), SPOT(HRV/HRG), Landsat (MSS/TM) and Terra/Aqua(MODIS), to investigate long-term and seasonal vegetation dynamics in Taiwan. We used 40-year NDVI records for derivation of VFC, with field campaigns routinely conducted to calibrate the critical NDVI threshold. Given different sensor capabilities in terms of their spatial and spectral properties, translation and infusion of NDVIs was used to assure NDVI coherence and to determine the fraction of vegetation cover at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on the proposed method, a bimodal sequence of intra-annual VFC which corresponds to the dual-cropping agriculture pattern was observed. Compared to seasonal VFC variation (78~90%), decadal VFC reveals moderate oscillations (81~86%), which were strongly linked with landuse changes and several major disturbances. This time-series mapping of VFC can be used to examine vegetation dynamics and its response associated with short-term and long-term anthropogenic/natural events.

  10. Fire in Fennoscandia: A palaeo-perspective of spatial and temporal variability in fire frequency and vegetation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clear, Jennifer; Bradshaw, Richard; Seppä, Heikki

    2014-05-01

    Active fire suppression in Fennoscandia has created a boreal forest ecosystem that is almost free of fire. Absence of fire is thought to have contributed to the widespread dominance of Picea abies (Norway spruce), though the character and structure of spruce forests operates as a positive feedback retarding fire frequency. This lack of fire and dominance by Picea abies may have assisted declines in deciduous tree species, with a concomitant loss of floristic diversity. Forest fires are driven by a complex interplay between natural (climate, vegetation and topography) and anthropogenic disturbance and through palaeoecology we are able to explore spatio-temporal variability in the drivers of fire, changing fire dynamics and the subsequent consequences for forest succession, development and floristic diversity over long timescales. High resolution analysis of palaeoenvironmental proxies (pollen and macroscopic charcoal) allows Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics to be reconstructed at the local forest-stand scale. Comparisons of fire histories with pollen-derived quantitative reconstruction of vegetation at local- and regional-scales identify large-scale ecosystem responses and local-scale disturbance. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability in biomass burning is explored to identify the drivers of fire and palaeovegetation reconstructions are compared to process-based, climate-driven dynamic vegetation model output to test the significance of fire frequency as a driver of vegetation composition and dynamics. Fire was not always so infrequent in the northern European forest with early-Holocene fire regimes driven by natural climate variations and fuel availability. The establishment and spread of Picea abies was probably driven by an increase in continentality of climate, but local natural and anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance may have aided this spread. Picea expansion led to a step-wise reduction in regional biomass burning and here we show the now

  11. Analysis of soil and vegetation patterns in semi-arid Mediterranean landscapes by way of a conceptual water balance model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Portoghese

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of various vegetation types on water balance variability in semi-arid Mediterranean landscapes, and the different strategies they may have developed to succeed in such water-limited environments. The existence of preferential associations between soil water holding capacity and vegetation species is assessed through an extensive soil geo-database focused on a study region in Southern Italy. Water balance constraints that dominate the organization of landscapes are investigated by a conceptual bucket approach. The temporal water balance dynamics are modelled, with vegetation water use efficiency being parameterized through the use of empirically obtained crop coefficients as surrogates of vegetation behavior in various developmental stages. Sensitivity analyses with respect to the root zone depth and soil water holding capacity are carried out with the aim of explaining the existence of preferential soil-vegetation associations and, hence, the spatial distribution of vegetation types within the study region. Based on these sensitivity analyses the degrees of suitability and adaptability of each vegetation type to parts of the study region are explored with respect of the soil water holding capacity, and the model results were found consistent with the observed affinity patterns.

  12. Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2012-12-01

    Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

  13. Complex responses of spring alpine vegetation phenology to snow cover dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Siyuan; Wang, Xiaoyue; Chen, Guangsheng; Yang, Qichun; Wang, Bin; Ma, Yuanxu; Shen, Ming

    2017-09-01

    Snow cover dynamics are considered to play a key role on spring phenological shifts in the high-latitude, so investigating responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics is becoming an increasingly important way to identify and predict global ecosystem dynamics. In this study, we quantified the temporal trends and spatial variations of spring phenology and snow cover across the Tibetan Plateau by calibrating and analyzing time series of the NOAA AVHRR-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during 1983-2012. We also examined how snow cover dynamics affect the spatio-temporal pattern of spring alpine vegetation phenology over the plateau. Our results indicated that 52.21% of the plateau experienced a significant advancing trend in the beginning of vegetation growing season (BGS) and 34.30% exhibited a delaying trend. Accordingly, the snow cover duration days (SCD) and snow cover melt date (SCM) showed similar patterns with a decreasing trend in the west and an increasing trend in the southeast, but the start date of snow cover (SCS) showed an opposite pattern. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of the BGS, SCD, SCS and SCM varied in accordance with the gradients of temperature, precipitation and topography across the plateau. The response relationship of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics varied within different climate, terrain and alpine plant community zones, and the spatio-temporal response patterns were primarily controlled by the long-term local heat-water conditions and topographic conditions. Moreover, temperature and precipitation played a profound impact on diverse responses of spring phenology to snow cover dynamics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

  15. Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

    2017-12-01

    Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land

  16. An improved parameterization of the allocation of assimilated carbon to plant parts in vegetation dynamics for Noah-MP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gim, Hyeon-Ju; Park, Seon Ki; Kang, Minseok; Thakuri, Bindu Malla; Kim, Joon; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2017-08-01

    In the land surface models predicting vegetation growth and decay, representation of the seasonality of land surface energy and mass fluxes largely depends on how to describe the vegetation dynamics. In this study, we developed a new parameterization scheme to characterize allocation of the assimilated carbon to plant parts, including leaves and fine roots. The amount of carbon allocation in this scheme depends on the climatological net primary production (NPP) of the plants. The newly developed scheme is implemented in the augmented Noah land surface model with multiple parameterization options (Noah-MP) along with other biophysical processes related to variations in photosynthetic capacity. The scheme and the augmented biophysical processes are evaluated against tower measurements of vegetation from four forest sites in various regions—two for the deciduous broadleaf and two for the needleleaf evergreen forest. Results from the augmented Noah-MP showed good agreement with the observations and demonstrated improvements in representing the seasonality of leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and latent heat flux. In particular, significant improvements are found in simulating amplitudes and phase shift timing in the LAI seasonal cycle, and the amount of GPP and ER in the growing season. Furthermore, the augmented Noah-MP performed reasonably well in simulating the spatial distributions of LAI, GPP, and NPP in East Asia, consistent with the satellite observations.

  17. Irrigation Requirement Estimation Using Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Franks, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    We explore an inverse biophysical modeling process forced by satellite and climatological data to quantify irrigation requirements in semi-arid agricultural areas. We constrain the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium, balance between vegetation and climate, and non-equilibrium, water added through irrigation. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated dry lands vary from equilibrium climate conditions is related to the amount of irrigation. The amount of water required over and above precipitation is considered as an irrigation requirement. For July, results show that spray irrigation resulted in an additional amount of water of 1.3 mm per occurrence with a frequency of 24.6 hours. In contrast, the drip irrigation required only 0.6 mm every 45.6 hours or 46% of that simulated by the spray irrigation. The modeled estimates account for 87% of the total reported irrigation water use, when soil salinity is not important and 66% in saline lands.

  18. Elephant movement closely tracks precipitation-driven vegetation dynamics in a Kenyan forest-savanna landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohrer, Gil; Beck, Pieter Sa; Ngene, Shadrack M; Skidmore, Andrew K; Douglas-Hamilton, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates the ranging behavior of elephants in relation to precipitation-driven dynamics of vegetation. Movement data were acquired for five bachelors and five female family herds during three years in the Marsabit protected area in Kenya and changes in vegetation were mapped using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index time series (NDVI). In the study area, elevations of 650 to 1100 m.a.s.l experience two growth periods per year, while above 1100 m.a.s.l. growth periods last a year or longer. We find that elephants respond quickly to changes in forage and water availability, making migrations in response to both large and small rainfall events. The elevational migration of individual elephants closely matched the patterns of greening and senescing of vegetation in their home range. Elephants occupied lower elevations when vegetation activity was high, whereas they retreated to the evergreen forest at higher elevations while vegetation senesced. Elephant home ranges decreased in size, and overlapped less with increasing elevation. A recent hypothesis that ungulate migrations in savannas result from countervailing seasonally driven rainfall and fertility gradients is demonstrated, and extended to shorter-distance migrations. In other words, the trade-off between the poor forage quality and accessibility in the forest with its year-round water sources on the one hand and the higher quality forage in the low-elevation scrubland with its seasonal availability of water on the other hand, drives the relatively short migrations (the two main corridors are 20 and 90 km) of the elephants. In addition, increased intra-specific competition appears to influence the animals' habitat use during the dry season indicating that the human encroachment on the forest is affecting the elephant population.

  19. VEGETATION MAPPING IN WETLANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. PEDROTTI

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The current work examines the main aspects of wetland vegetation mapping, which can be summarized as analysis of the ecological-vegetational (ecotone gradients; vegetation complexes; relationships between vegetation distribution and geomorphology; vegetation of the hydrographic basin lo which the wetland in question belongs; vegetation monitoring with help of four vegetation maps: phytosociological map of the real and potential vegetation, map of vegetation dynamical tendencies, map of vegetation series.

  20. Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rybakin

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

  1. Trends in soil-vegetation dynamics in burned Mediterranean pine forests: the effects of soil properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, L.; Malkinson, D.

    2009-04-01

    Fire can impact a variety of soil physical and chemical properties. These changes may result, given the fire severity and the local conditions, in decreased infiltration and increased runoff and erosion rates. Most of these changes are caused by complex interactions among eco-geomorphic processes which affect, in turn, the rehabilitation dynamics of the soil and the regeneration of the burnt vegetation. Following wildfire events in two forests growing on different soil types, we investigated runoff, erosion, nutrient export (specifically nitrogen and phosphorous) and vegetation recovery dynamics. The Biriya forest site, burned during the 2006 summer, is composed of two dominant lithological types: soft chalk and marl which are relatively impermeable. The rocks are usually overlain by relatively thick, up of to 80 cm, grayish-white Rendzina soil, which contains large amounts of dissolved carbonate. These carbonates serve as a limiting factor for vegetation growth. The planted forest in Biriya is comprised of monospecific stands of Pinus spp. and Cupressus spp. The Mt. Carmel area, which was last burned in the 2005 spring, represents a system of varied Mediterranean landscapes, differentiated by lithology, soils and vegetation. Lithology is mainly composed of limestone, dolomite, and chalk. The dominant soil is Brown Rendzina whilst in some locations Grey Rendzina and Terra Rossa can be found. The local vegetation is composed mainly of a complex of pine (Pinus halepensis), oak (Quercus calliprinos), Pistacia lentiscus and associations At each site several 3X3 m monitoring plots were established to collect runoff and sediment. In-plot vegetation changes were monitored by a sequence of aerial photographs captured using a 6 m pole-mounted camera. At the terra-rosa sites (Mt. Carmel) mean runoff coefficients were 2.18% during the first year after the fire and 1.6% in the second. Mean erosion rates also decreased, from 42 gr/m2 to 4 gr/m2. The recovering vegetation was

  2. The Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Remotely-sensed Vegetation Phenology in Central Asia in the 1982-2011 Period

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bohovič, Roman; Dobrovolný, Petr; Klein, D.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 2016, č. 49 (2016), s. 279-299 ISSN 2279-7254 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Phenology * vegetation dynamics * NDVI * GIMMS * Central Asia * SOS Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.533, year: 2016

  3. A Simple Mathematical Model of the Anaerobic Digestion of Wasted Fruits and Vegetables in Mesophilic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Chorukova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Anaerobic digestion is an effective biotechnological process for treatment of different agricultural, municipal and industrial wastes. Use of mathematical models is a powerful tool for investigations and optimisation of the anaerobic digestion. In this paper a simple mathematical model of the anaerobic digestion of wasted fruits and vegetables was developed and verified experimentally and by computer simulations using Simulink. A three-step mass-balance model was considered including the gas phase. The parameter identification was based on a set of 150 days of dynamical experiments in a laboratory bioreactor. Two step identification procedure to estimate 4 model parameters is presented. The results of 15 days of experiment in a pilot-scale bioreactor were then used to validate the model.

  4. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Donald McKenzie; Donald A. Falk; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Carol Miller; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

    2015-01-01

    The prospect of rapidly changing climates over the next century calls for methods to predict their effects on myriad, interactive ecosystem processes. Spatially explicit models that simulate ecosystem dynamics at fine (plant, stand) to coarse (regional, global) scales are indispensable tools for meeting this challenge under a variety of possible futures. A special...

  5. Using natural selection and optimization for smarter vegetation models - challenges and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Oskar; Han, Wang; Dieckmann, Ulf; Cramer, Wolfgang; Brännström, Åke; Pietsch, Stephan; Rovenskaya, Elena; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are now indispensable for understanding the biosphere and for estimating the capacity of ecosystems to provide services. The models are continuously developed to include an increasing number of processes and to utilize the growing amounts of observed data becoming available. However, while the versatility of the models is increasing as new processes and variables are added, their accuracy suffers from the accumulation of uncertainty, especially in the absence of overarching principles controlling their concerted behaviour. We have initiated a collaborative working group to address this problem based on a 'missing law' - adaptation and optimization principles rooted in natural selection. Even though this 'missing law' constrains relationships between traits, and therefore can vastly reduce the number of uncertain parameters in ecosystem models, it has rarely been applied to DGVMs. Our recent research have shown that optimization- and trait-based models of gross primary production can be both much simpler and more accurate than current models based on fixed functional types, and that observed plant carbon allocations and distributions of plant functional traits are predictable with eco-evolutionary models. While there are also many other examples of the usefulness of these and other theoretical principles, it is not always straight-forward to make them operational in predictive models. In particular on longer time scales, the representation of functional diversity and the dynamical interactions among individuals and species presents a formidable challenge. Here we will present recent ideas on the use of adaptation and optimization principles in vegetation models, including examples of promising developments, but also limitations of the principles and some key challenges.

  6. Validation of the marine vegetation model in Forsmark. SFR-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aquilonius, Karin (Studsvik Nuclear AB (Sweden)); Qvarfordt, Susanne; Borgiel, Micke (Sveriges Vattenekologer AB (Sweden))

    2011-04-15

    A regression model implemented in GIS of the marine vegetation in Forsmark were developed by SKB /Aquilonius 2010/ based on field investigations and video surveys /Fredriksson 2005/ and from correlations of field data and physical properties /Carlen et al. 2007/. The marine vegetation model describes distribution and biomasses of the marine vegetation and is used as input data in the dose modeling within the safety assessments performed by the SKB. In this study the predictive performance of the vegetation model in the less examined parts of the marine area in Forsmark is evaluated. In general, the vegetation model works very well in predicting absence of biomass, except for Red algae. In total and for Fucus sp., the model also predicts the observed biomass fairly well. However, for phanerogams, Chara sp., filamentous algae and red algae the vegetation model works less well in predicting biomass

  7. Validation of the marine vegetation model in Forsmark. SFR-Site Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aquilonius, Karin; Qvarfordt, Susanne; Borgiel, Micke

    2011-04-01

    A regression model implemented in GIS of the marine vegetation in Forsmark were developed by SKB /Aquilonius 2010/ based on field investigations and video surveys /Fredriksson 2005/ and from correlations of field data and physical properties /Carlen et al. 2007/. The marine vegetation model describes distribution and biomasses of the marine vegetation and is used as input data in the dose modeling within the safety assessments performed by the SKB. In this study the predictive performance of the vegetation model in the less examined parts of the marine area in Forsmark is evaluated. In general, the vegetation model works very well in predicting absence of biomass, except for Red algae. In total and for Fucus sp., the model also predicts the observed biomass fairly well. However, for phanerogams, Chara sp., filamentous algae and red algae the vegetation model works less well in predicting biomass

  8. The Importance of Representing Certain Key Vegetation Canopy Processes Explicitly in a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napoly, A.; Boone, A. A.; Martin, E.; Samuelsson, P.

    2015-12-01

    Land surface models are moving to more detailed vegetation canopy descriptions in order to better represent certain key processes, such as Carbon dynamics and snowpack evolution. Since such models are usually applied within coupled numerical weather prediction or spatially distributed hydrological models, these improvements must strike a balance between computational cost and complexity. The consequences of simplified or composite canopy approaches can be manifested in terms of increased errors with respect to soil temperatures, estimates of the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes or snow canopy interception and melt. Vegetated areas and particularly forests are modeled in a quite simplified manner in the ISBA land surface model. However, continuous developments of surface processes now require a more accurate description of the canopy. A new version of the the model now includes a multi energy balance (MEB) option to explicitly represent the canopy and the forest floor. It will be shown that certain newly included processes such as the shading effect of the vegetation, the explicit heat capacity of the canopy, and the insulating effect of the forest floor turn out to be essential. A detailed study has been done for four French forested sites. It was found that the MEB option significantly improves the ground heat flux (RMSE decrease from 50W/m2 to 10W/m2 on average) and soil temperatures when compared against measurements. Also the sensible heat flux calculation was improved primarily owing to a better phasing with the solar insulation owing to a lower vegetation heat capacity. However, the total latent heat flux is less modified compared to the classical ISBA simulation since it is more related to water uptake and the formulation of the stomatal resistance (which are unchanged). Next, a benchmark over 40 Fluxnet sites (116 cumulated years) was performed and compared with results from the default composite soil-vegetation version of ISBA. The results show

  9. Structural dynamic modifications via models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study shows that as many as half of the matrix ... the dynamicist's analytical modelling skill which would appear both in the numerator as. Figure 2. ..... Brandon J A 1990 Strategies for structural dynamic modification (New York: John Wiley).

  10. Dynamic programming models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Denardo, Eric V

    2003-01-01

    Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.

  11. Model-generated air quality statistics for application in vegetation response models in Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVehil, G.E.; Nosal, M.

    1990-01-01

    To test and apply vegetation response models in Alberta, air pollution statistics representative of various parts of the Province are required. At this time, air quality monitoring data of the requisite accuracy and time resolution are not available for most parts of Alberta. Therefore, there exists a need to develop appropriate air quality statistics. The objectives of the work reported here were to determine the applicability of model generated air quality statistics and to develop by modelling, realistic and representative time series of hourly SO 2 concentrations that could be used to generate the statistics demanded by vegetation response models

  12. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, Tarandeep S.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo; Seshadri, Pranay; Ganju, Neil K.; Beudin, Alexis

    2017-12-01

    Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method (ESQM v5.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Kalra

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST modeling system. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as the Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant stem density, height, and, to a lesser degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant stem density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space for future observational and modeling work.

  14. Dynamical models of the Galaxy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McMillan P.J.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.

  15. Drought Dynamics and Vegetation Productivity in Different Land Management Systems of Eastern Cape, South Africa—A Remote Sensing Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Graw

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Cape Province in South Africa has experienced extreme drought events during the last decade. In South Africa, different land management systems exist belonging to two different land tenure classes: commercial large scale farming and communal small-scale subsistence farming. Communal lands are often reported to be affected by land degradation and drought events among others considered as trigger for this process. Against this background, we analyzed vegetation response to drought in different land management and land tenure systems through assessing vegetation productivity trends and monitoring the intensity, frequency and distribution of the drought hazard in grasslands and communal and commercial croplands during drought and non-drought conditions. For the observation period 2000–2016, we used time series of 250 m Vegetation Condition Index (VCI based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS precipitation data with 5 km resolution. For the assessment of vegetation dynamics, we: (1 analyzed vegetation productivity in Eastern Cape over the last 16 years with EVI; (2 analyzed the impact of drought events on vegetation productivity in grasslands as well as commercial and communal croplands; and (3 compared precipitation-vegetation dynamics between the drought season 2015/2016 and the non-drought season 2011/2012. Change in total annual vegetation productivity could detect drought years while drought dynamics during the season could be rather monitored by the VCI. Correlation of vegetation condition and precipitation indicated areas experiencing significant vegetation productivity trends showing low and even negative correlation coefficients indicating other drivers for productivity change and drought impact besides rainfall.

  16. Five millennia of frozen vegetation and fire dynamics from an ice core in the Mongolian Altai

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brügger, S. O.; Gobet, E.; Sigl, M.; Osmont, D.; Papina, T.; Rudaya, N.; Schwikowski, M.; Tinner, W.

    2017-12-01

    The steppes of the Altai region in Central Asia are highly vulnerable to e.g. drought and overgrazing. Degradation during the past decades may undermine their resilience under global change conditions. Knowledge about past vegetation and fire dynamics in Mongolian Altai may contribute to a better understanding of future climate and human impact responses, however, paleo records are scarce in the area. Our novel high-alpine ice record from Tsambagarav glacier (48°39.338'N, 90°50.826'E, 4130m asl) in the Mongolian Altai provides unique paleoenvironmental informations at the landscape scale. The site is surrounded by dry steppes with scattered boreal tree stands. We assume that the site collects pollen and spores within several hundred km. The archive provides an exceptional temporal resolution with a sound chronology covering the past 5500 years (Herren et al. 2013). Microfossil analysis allows to reconstruct large-scale fire and vegetation dynamics to gain a better understanding of the timing and causes of late Holocene response variability. We use pollen as proxies for vegetation composition and structure, microscopic charcoal as a proxy for fire activity (Eichler et al. 2011), and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs or soots) as a proxy for fossil fuel combustion. Here we present the first microscopic charcoal record from Mongolia and link it to vegetation dynamics of the past. The reconstructed mid to late Holocene forest collapses likely in response to climate change underscore the vulnerability of relict forest ecosystems in the Mongolian Altai. Our multiproxy-study suggests that moisture is more important than temperature for forest preservation. The lacking resilience of vegetation to moisture changes in the past emphasizes the vulnerability of large forests in neighboring dry areas such as the Russian Altai, if global warming is associated to moisture declines as future projections forecast (IPCC; Climate Change 2013). References: Eichler et al. (2011

  17. A vegetation modeling concept for Building and Environmental Aerodynamics wind tunnel tests and its application in pollutant dispersion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gromke, Christof

    2011-01-01

    A new vegetation modeling concept for Building and Environmental Aerodynamics wind tunnel investigations was developed. The modeling concept is based on fluid dynamical similarity aspects and allows the small-scale modeling of various kinds of vegetation, e.g. field crops, shrubs, hedges, single trees and forest stands. The applicability of the modeling concept was validated in wind tunnel pollutant dispersion studies. Avenue trees in urban street canyons were modeled and their implications on traffic pollutant dispersion were investigated. The dispersion experiments proved the modeling concept to be practicable for wind tunnel studies and suggested to provide reliable concentration results. Unfavorable effects of trees on pollutant dispersion and natural ventilation in street canyons were revealed. Increased traffic pollutant concentrations were found in comparison to the tree-free reference case. - Highlights: → A concept for aerodynamic modelling of vegetation in small scale wind tunnel studies is presented. → The concept was applied to study pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons with avenue tress. → The wind tunnel studies show that modelling the aerodynamic effects of vegetation is important. → Avenue trees give rise to increased pollutant concentrations in urban street canyons. - Avenue trees in urban street canyons affect the pollutant dispersion and result in increased traffic exhaust concentrations.

  18. Development of a Dynamic Web Mapping Service for Vegetation Productivity Using Earth Observation and in situ Sensors in a Sensor Web Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sytze de Bruin

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of a sensor web based approach which combines earth observation and in situ sensor data to derive typical information offered by a dynamic web mapping service (WMS. A prototype has been developed which provides daily maps of vegetation productivity for the Netherlands with a spatial resolution of 250 m. Daily available MODIS surface reflectance products and meteorological parameters obtained through a Sensor Observation Service (SOS were used as input for a vegetation productivity model. This paper presents the vegetation productivity model, the sensor data sources and the implementation of the automated processing facility. Finally, an evaluation is made of the opportunities and limitations of sensor web based approaches for the development of web services which combine both satellite and in situ sensor sources.

  19. Microbial Dynamics During a Temporal Sequence of Bioreduction Stimulated by Emulsified Vegetable Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schadt, C. W.; Gihring, T. M.; Yang, Z.; Wu, W.; Green, S.; Overholt, W.; Zhang, G.; Brandt, C. C.; Campbell, J. H.; Carroll, S. C.; Criddle, C.; Jardine, P. M.; Lowe, K.; Mehlhorn, T.; Kostka, J. E.; Watson, D. B.; Brooks, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    Amendments of slow-release substrates (e.g. emulsified vegetable oil; EVO) are potentially pragmatic alternatives to short-lived labile substrates for sustained uranium bioimmobilization within groundwater systems. The spatial and temporal dynamics of geochemical and microbial community changes during EVO amendment are likely to differ significantly from populations stimulated by readily utilizable soluble substrates (e.g. ethanol or acetate). We tracked dynamic changes in geochemistry and microbial communities for 270 days following a one-time EVO injection at the Oak Ridge Integrated Field Research Challenge (ORIFRC) site that resulted in decreased groundwater U concentrations for ~4 months. Pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR of 16S rRNA and dissimilatory sulfite reductase (dsrA) genes from monitoring well samples revealed a rapid decline in bacterial community richness and evenness after EVO injection, concurrent with increased 16S rRNA copy levels, indicating the selection of a narrow group consisting of 10-15 dominant OTUs, rather than a broad community stimulation. By association of the known physiology of close relatives identified in the pyrosequencing analysis, it is possible to infer a hypothesized sequence of microbial functions leading the major changes in electron donors and acceptors in the system. Members of the Firmicutes family Veillonellaceae dominated after injection and most likely catalyzed the initial oil decomposition and utilized the glycerol associated with the oils. Sulfate-reducing bacteria from the genus Desulforegula, known for LCFA oxidation to acetate, also dominated shortly after EVO amendment and are thought to catalyze this process. Acetate and H2 production during LCFA degradation appeared to stimulate NO3-, Fe(III), U(VI), and SO42- reduction by members of the Comamonadaceae, Geobacteriaceae, and Desulfobacterales. Methanogenic archaea flourished late in the experiment and in some samples constituted over 25 % of the total

  20. RETRAN dynamic slip model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

    1981-01-01

    A time dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into a developmental version of the RETRAN computer code. This model addition has been undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. In this paper, the development of the slip model is summarized and the corresponding constitutive equations are discussed. Comparisons of RETRAN analyses with steady-state void fraction data and data from the Semiscale S-02-6 small break test are also presented

  1. Modeling Propellant Tank Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main objective of my work will be to develop accurate models of self-pressurizing propellant tanks for use in designing hybrid rockets. The first key goal is to...

  2. Dynamic modelling of Cs-137 contamination in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oehlenschlaeger, M.

    1989-01-01

    The paper describes the structure of a dynamic food-chain transport model for Cs-137 in the Danish terrestrial environment. The model solves a set of linear, coupled differential equations in order to estimate the inventories and concentrations of Cs-137 in the soil, vegetation, animal tissue and animal product as a function of time based on the Cs-137 concentrations in the air after an accidental release. Meteorological conditions and seasonal variations in agricultural practice are included. (orig.)

  3. SOSlope: a new slope stability model for vegetated hillslopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, D.; Schwarz, M.

    2016-12-01

    Roots contribute to increase soil strength but forces mobilized by roots depend on soil relative displacement. This effect is not included in models of slope stability. Here we present a new numerical model of shallow landslides for vegetated hillslopes that uses a strain-step loading approach for force redistributions within a soil mass including the effects of root strength in both tension and compression. The hillslope is discretized into a two-dimensional array of blocks connected by bonds. During a rainfall event the blocks's mass increases and the soil shear strength decreases. At each time step, we compute a factor of safety for each block. If the factor of safety of one or more blocks is less than one, those blocks are moved in the direction of the local active force by a predefined amount and the factor of safety is recalculated for all blocks. Because of the relative motion between blocks that have moved and those that remain stationary, mechanical bond forces between blocks that depend on relative displacement change, modifying the force balance. This relative motion triggers instantaneous force redistributions across the entire hillslope similar to a self-organized critical system. Looping over blocks and moving those that are unstable is repeated until all blocks are stable and the system reaches a new equilibrium, or, some blocks have failed causing a landslide. Spatial heterogeneity of vegetation is included by computing the root density and distribution as a function of distance form trees. A simple subsurface hydrological model based on dual permeability concepts is used to compute the temporal evolution of water content, pore-water pressure, suction stress, and soil shear strength. Simulations for a conceptual slope indicates that forces mobilized in tension and compression both contribute to the stability of the slope. However, the maximum tensional and compressional forces imparted by roots do not contribute simultaneously to the stability of

  4. Modelling group dynamic animal movement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.

    2014-01-01

    makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multi-state random walks. While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However...

  5. On the relative importance of vegetation terms in computational fluid dynamics on flow and Dispersion in the urban environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gromke, C.B.; Blocken, B.J.E.

    2013-01-01

    The relative importance of vegetation terms was analysed for flow and dispersion in an urban street canyon with avenue-trees. To this end, simulations with three k-e turbulence models and different approaches to model vegetation were performed. The different approaches resulted in rather slight

  6. Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing vegetation - landscape structure - resource interactions at different time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buis, E.

    2008-01-01

    This research is entitled ‘Arid landscape dynamics along a precipitation gradient: addressing
    vegetation – landscape structure – resource interactions at different time scales’ with as subtitle
    ‘A case study for the Northern Negev Desert of Israel’. Landscape dynamics describes the

  7. Determining Characteristic Vegetation Areas by Terrestrial Laser Scanning for Floodplain Flow Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Jalonen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Detailed modeling of floodplain flows and associated processes requires data on mixed, heterogeneous vegetation at river reach scale, though the collection of vegetation data is typically limited in resolution or lack spatial information. This study investigates physically-based characterization of mixed floodplain vegetation by means of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS. The work aimed at developing an approach for deriving the characteristic reference areas of herbaceous and foliated woody vegetation, and estimating the vertical distribution of woody vegetation. Detailed experimental data on vegetation properties were gathered both in a floodplain site for herbaceous vegetation, and under laboratory conditions for 2–3 m tall trees. The total plant area (Atot of woody vegetation correlated linearly with the TLS-based voxel count, whereas the Atot of herbaceous vegetation showed a linear correlation with TLS-based vegetation mean height. For woody vegetation, 1 cm voxel size was found suitable for estimating both the Atot and its vertical distribution. A new concept was proposed for deriving Atot for larger areas from the point cloud attributes of small sub-areas. The results indicated that the relationships between the TLS attributes and Atot of the sub-areas can be derived either by mm resolution TLS or by manual vegetation sampling.

  8. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A

    2014-01-01

    Widespread increases in Arctic tundra productivity have been documented for decades using coarse-scale satellite observations, but finer-scale observations indicate that changes have been very uneven, with a high degree of landscape- and regional-scale heterogeneity. Here we analyze time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed by Landsat (1984–2012), to assess landscape- and regional-scale variability of tundra vegetation dynamics in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic, a little-studied region with varied soils, landscape histories, and permafrost attributes. We also estimate spatio-temporal rates of land-cover change associated with expansion of tall alder (Alnus) shrublands, by integrating Landsat time-series with very-high-resolution imagery dating to the mid-1960s. We compiled Landsat time-series for eleven widely-distributed landscapes, and performed linear regression of NDVI values on a per-pixel basis. We found positive net NDVI trends (‘greening’) in nine of eleven landscapes. Net greening occurred in alder shrublands in all landscapes, and strong greening tended to correspond to shrublands that developed since the 1960s. Much of the spatial variability of greening within landscapes was linked to landscape physiography and permafrost attributes, while between-landscape variability largely corresponded to differences in surficial geology. We conclude that continued increases in tundra productivity in the region are likely in upland tundra landscapes with fine-textured, cryoturbated soils; these areas currently tend to support discontinuous vegetation cover, but are highly susceptible to rapid increases in vegetation cover, as well as land-cover changes associated with the development of tall shrublands. (paper)

  9. Regional vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change—a case study in the Tao River Basin in Northwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Changbin; Yang, Linshan; Wang, Shuaibing; Yang, Wenjin; Zhu, Gaofeng; Qi, Jiaguo; Zou, Songbing; Zhang, Feng

    2014-01-01

    The 30-year normalized-difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series from AVHRR/MODIS satellite sensors was used in this study to assess the regional vegetation dynamic changes in the Tao River Basin, which cuts across the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP) and the Southwestern Loess Plateau (SLP). First, principal component and correlation analyses were carried out to determine the key climatic variables driving ecological change in the region. Then, regression models were tested to correlate NDVI with the selected climatic variables to determine their predictive power. Finally, Sen’s slope method was used to determine how terrestrial vegetation has responded to regional climate change in the region. The results indicated an average winter season NDVI value of 0.14 in the ETP but only 0.04 in the SLP. Primarily driven by increasing temperature, vegetation growth has generally been enhanced since 1981; spring NDVI increased by 0.03 every 10 years in the ETP and 0.02 in the SLP. Further, results from trend analyses suggest vegetation growth in the ETP shifted to earlier-start and earlier-end dates, however in the SLP, the growing season has been extended with an earlier-start and later-end date. The precipitation threshold for vegetation germination, measured by the cumulative spring rainfall, was found to be 44 mm for both the ETP and SLP. (paper)

  10. Modeling Internet Topology Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddadi, H.; Uhlig, S.; Moore, A.; Mortier, R.; Rio, M.

    Despite the large number of papers on network topology modeling and inference, there still exists ambiguity about the real nature of the Internet AS and router level topology. While recent findings have illustrated the inaccuracies in maps inferred from BGP peering and traceroute measurements,

  11. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a...

  12. Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated

  13. Analysis of postfire vegetation dynamics of Mediterranean shrub species based on terrestrial and NDVI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Clemente, Rocío; Cerrillo, R M Navarro; Hernández-Bermejo, J E; Royo, S Escuin; Kasimis, N A

    2009-05-01

    The present study offers an analysis of regeneration patterns and diversity dynamics after a wildfire, which occurred in 1993 and affected about 7000 ha in southern Spain. The aim of the work was to analyze the rule in the succession of shrub species after fire, relating it to the changes registered in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Fractional vegetation cover was recorded from permanent plots in 2000 and 2005. NDVI data related to each time were obtained from Landsat images. Both data sets, from fieldwork and remote sensing, were analyzed through statistical and quantitative analyses and then correlated. Results have permitted the description of the change in plant cover and species composition on a global and plot scale. It can be affirmed that, from the seventh to the twelfth year after the fire, the floristic composition within the burned area remained unchanged at a global level. However, on a smaller scale (plot level), the major shrub species, Ulex parviflorus, Rosmarinus officinalis, and Cistus clusii, underwent significant changes. The regeneration dynamics established by these species conditioned plant species composition and, consequently, diversity indexes such as Shannon (H) and Simpson (D). The changes recorded in the NDVI values corresponding to the surveyed plots were highly correlated with those found in the regrowth of the main species. Areas dominated by U. parviflorus in a senile phase were related to a decrease in NDVI values and an increase in the number of species. This result describes the successional dynamics; the dryness of the main colonizer shrub species is allowing the regrowth and re-establishment of other species. Within the study area, NDVI shows sensitivity to postfire plant cover changes and indirectly expresses the diversity dynamics.

  14. Analysis of Postfire Vegetation Dynamics of Mediterranean Shrub Species Based on Terrestrial and NDVI Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Clemente, Rocío; Navarro Cerrillo, R. M.; Hernández-Bermejo, J. E.; Escuin Royo, S.; Kasimis, N. A.

    2009-05-01

    The present study offers an analysis of regeneration patterns and diversity dynamics after a wildfire, which occurred in 1993 and affected about 7000 ha in southern Spain. The aim of the work was to analyze the rule in the succession of shrub species after fire, relating it to the changes registered in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Fractional vegetation cover was recorded from permanent plots in 2000 and 2005. NDVI data related to each time were obtained from Landsat images. Both data sets, from fieldwork and remote sensing, were analyzed through statistical and quantitative analyses and then correlated. Results have permitted the description of the change in plant cover and species composition on a global and plot scale. It can be affirmed that, from the seventh to the twelfth year after the fire, the floristic composition within the burned area remained unchanged at a global level. However, on a smaller scale (plot level), the major shrub species, Ulex parviflorus, Rosmarinus officinalis, and Cistus clusii, underwent significant changes. The regeneration dynamics established by these species conditioned plant species composition and, consequently, diversity indexes such as Shannon (H) and Simpson (D). The changes recorded in the NDVI values corresponding to the surveyed plots were highly correlated with those found in the regrowth of the main species. Areas dominated by U. parviflorus in a senile phase were related to a decrease in NDVI values and an increase in the number of species. This result describes the successional dynamics; the dryness of the main colonizer shrub species is allowing the regrowth and re-establishment of other species. Within the study area, NDVI shows sensitivity to postfire plant cover changes and indirectly expresses the diversity dynamics.

  15. Analysing land and vegetation cover dynamics during last three decades in Katerniaghat wildlife sanctuary, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitale, V. S.; Behera, M. D.

    2014-10-01

    The change in the tropical forests could be clearly linked to the expansion of the human population and economies. An understanding of the anthropogenic forcing plays an important role in analyzing the impacts of climate change and the fate of tropical forests in the present and future scenario. In the present study, we analyze the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors in forest dynamics in Katerniaghat wildlife sanctuary situated along the Indo-Nepal border in Uttar Pradesh state, India. The study site is under tremendous pressure due to anthropogenic factors from surrounding areas since last three decades. The vegetation cover of the sanctuary primarily comprised of Shorea robusta forests, Tectona grandis plantation, and mixed deciduous forest; while the land cover comprised of agriculture, barren land, and water bodies. The classification accuracy was 83.5%, 91.5%, and 95.2% with MSS, IKONOS, and Quickbird datasets, respectively. Shorea robusta forests showed an increase of 16 km2; while Tectona grandis increased by 63.01 km2 during 1975-2010. The spatial heterogeneity in these tropical vegetation classes surrounded by the human dominated agricultural lands could not be addressed using Landsat MSS data due to coarse spatial resolution; whereas the IKONOS and Quickbird satellite datasets proved to advantageous, thus being able to precisely address the variations within the vegetation classes as well as in the land cover classes and along the edge areas. Massive deforestation during 1970s along the adjoining international boundary with Nepal has led to destruction of the wildlife corridor and has exposed the wildlife sanctuary to human interference like grazing and poaching. Higher rates of forest dynamics during the 25-year period indicate the vulnerability of the ecosystem to the natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the proximity of the sanctuary.

  16. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  17. Tropical climate and vegetation cover during Heinrich event 1: Simulations with coupled climate vegetation models

    OpenAIRE

    Handiani, Dian Noor

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the climate and vegetation responses to abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Two abrupt climate events are explored: the abrupt cooling of the Heinrich event 1 (HE1), followed by the abrupt warming of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA). These two events are simulated by perturbing the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean, with the intention of altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and also of in...

  18. Controlled laboratory experiments and modeling of vegetative filter strips with shallow water tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Garey A.; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Purvis, Rebecca A.

    2018-01-01

    Natural or planted vegetation at the edge of fields or adjacent to streams, also known as vegetative filter strips (VFS), are commonly used as an environmental mitigation practice for runoff pollution and agrochemical spray drift. The VFS position in lowlands near water bodies often implies the presence of a seasonal shallow water table (WT). In spite of its potential importance, there is limited experimental work that systematically studies the effect of shallow WTs on VFS efficacy. Previous research recently coupled a new physically based algorithm describing infiltration into soils bounded by a water table into the VFS numerical overland flow and transport model, VFSMOD, to simulate VFS dynamics under shallow WT conditions. In this study, we tested the performance of the model against laboratory mesoscale data under controlled conditions. A laboratory soil box (1.0 m wide, 2.0 m long, and 0.7 m deep) was used to simulate a VFS and quantify the influence of shallow WTs on runoff. Experiments included planted Bermuda grass on repacked silt loam and sandy loam soils. A series of experiments were performed including a free drainage case (no WT) and a static shallow water table (0.3-0.4 m below ground surface). For each soil type, this research first calibrated VFSMOD to the observed outflow hydrograph for the free drainage experiments to parameterize the soil hydraulic and vegetation parameters, and then evaluated the model based on outflow hydrographs for the shallow WT experiments. This research used several statistical metrics and a new approach based on hypothesis testing of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) to evaluate model performance. The new VFSMOD routines successfully simulated the outflow hydrographs under both free drainage and shallow WT conditions. Statistical metrics considered the model performance valid with greater than 99.5% probability across all scenarios. This research also simulated the shallow water table experiments with

  19. A minimal model of fire-vegetation feedbacks and disturbance stochasticity generates alternative stable states in grassland–shrubland–woodland systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batllori, Enric; Ackerly, David D; Moritz, Max A

    2015-01-01

    Altered disturbance regimes in the context of global change are likely to have profound consequences for ecosystems. Interactions between fire and vegetation are of particular interest, as fire is a major driver of vegetation change, and vegetation properties (e.g., amount, flammability) alter fire regimes. Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) constitute a paradigmatic example of temperate fire-prone vegetation. Although these ecosystems may be heavily impacted by global change, disturbance regime shifts and the implications of fire-vegetation feedbacks in the dynamics of such biomes are still poorly characterized. We developed a minimal modeling framework incorporating key aspects of fire ecology and successional processes to evaluate the relative influence of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on disturbance and vegetation dynamics in systems composed of grassland, shrubland, and woodland mosaics, which characterize many MTEs. In this theoretical investigation, we performed extensive simulations representing different background rates of vegetation succession and disturbance regime (fire frequency and severity) processes that reflect a broad range of MTE environmental conditions. Varying fire-vegetation feedbacks can lead to different critical points in underlying processes of disturbance and sudden shifts in the vegetation state of grassland–shrubland–woodland systems, despite gradual changes in ecosystem drivers as defined by the environment. Vegetation flammability and disturbance stochasticity effectively modify system behavior, determining its heterogeneity and the existence of alternative stable states in MTEs. Small variations in system flammability and fire recurrence induced by climate or vegetation changes may trigger sudden shifts in the state of such ecosystems. The existence of threshold dynamics, alternative stable states, and contrasting system responses to environmental change has broad implications for MTE management. (letter)

  20. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  1. Modeling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R. W. A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V. K.; Melton, J. R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

    2014-05-01

    Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model (Lund Potsdam Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) was adapted to simulate present-day potential vegetation as a baseline for climate change impact assessments in the evergreen and deciduous forests of Bolivia. Results were compared to biomass measurements (819 plots) and remote sensing data. Using regional parameter values for allometric relations, specific leaf area, wood density, and disturbance interval, a realistic transition from the evergreen Amazon to the deciduous dry forest was simulated. This transition coincided with threshold values for precipitation (1400 mm yr-1) and water deficit (i.e., potential evapotranspiration minus precipitation) (-830 mm yr-1), beyond which leaf abscission became a competitive advantage. Significant correlations were found between modeled and observed values of seasonal leaf abscission (R2 = 0.6, p days. Decreasing rainfall trends were simulated to reduce GPP in the Amazon. The current model setup provides a baseline for assessing the potential impacts of climate change in the transition zone from wet to dry tropical forests in Bolivia.

  2. Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giti Zahedzadeh

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The strategic interplay between counterterror measures and terror activity is complex. Herein, we propose a dynamic model to depict this interaction. The model generates stylized prognoses: (i under conditions of inefficient counterterror measures, terror groups enjoy longer period of activity but only if recruitment into terror groups remains low; high recruitment shortens the period of terror activity (ii highly efficient counterterror measures effectively contain terror activity, but only if recruitment remains low. Thus, highly efficient counterterror measures can effectively contain terrorism if recruitment remains restrained. We conclude that the trajectory of the dynamics between counterterror measures and terror activity is heavily altered by recruitment.

  3. Hydraulic and Vegetative Models of Historic Environmental Conditions Isolate the Role of Riparian Vegetation in Inducing Channel Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manners, R.; Schmidt, J. C.; Wheaton, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    An enduring question in geomorphology is the role of riparian vegetation in inducing or exacerbating channel narrowing. It is typically difficult to isolate the role of vegetation in causing channel narrowing, because narrowing typically occurs where there are changes in stream flow, sediment supply, the invasion of non-native vegetation, and sometimes climate change. Therefore, linkages between changes in vegetation communities and changes in channel form are often difficult to identify. We took a mechanistic approach to isolate the role of the invasive riparian shrub tamarisk (Tamarix spp) in influencing channel narrowing in the Colorado River basin. Detailed geomorphic reconstructions of two sites on the Yampa and Green Rivers, respectively, in Dinosaur National Monument show that channel narrowing has been progressive and that tamarisk encroachment has also occurred; at the same time, dams have been constructed, diversions increased, and spring snowmelt runoff has been occurring earlier in spring. We simulated hydraulic and sediment transport conditions during the two largest floods of record -- 1984 and 2011. Two-dimensional hydraulic models were built to reflect these conditions and allowed us to perform sensitivity tests to determine the dominant determinants of the observed patterns of erosion and deposition. Channel and floodplain topography were constrained through detailed stratigraphic analysis, including precise dating of deposits based on dating of buried tamarisk plants in a series of floodplain trenches and pits. We also used historical air photos to establish past channel topography. To parameterize the influence of riparian vegetation, we developed a model that links detailed terrestrial laser scan (TLS) measurements of stand structure and its corresponding hydraulic roughness at the patch scale to reach-scale riparian vegetation patterns determined from airborne LiDaR (ALS). This model, in conjunction with maps of the ages and establishment

  4. Atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO2 exchange processes: SOLVEG2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu

    2004-11-01

    A new atmosphere-soil-vegetation model named SOLVEG2 (SOLVEG version 2) was developed to study the heat, water, and CO 2 exchanges between the atmosphere and land-surface. The model consists of one-dimensional multilayer sub-models for the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. It also includes sophisticated processes for solar and long-wave radiation transmission in vegetation canopy and CO 2 exchanges among the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. Although the model usually simulates only vertical variation of variables in the surface-layer atmosphere, soil, and vegetation canopy by using meteorological data as top boundary conditions, it can be used by coupling with a three-dimensional atmosphere model. In this paper, details of SOLVEG2, which includes the function of coupling with atmosphere model MM5, are described. (author)

  5. The role of water availability in controlling coupled vegetation-atmosphere dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Todd Michael

    This work examines how water availability affects vegetation structure and vegetation-atmosphere exchange of water, carbon, and energy for a savanna ecosystem. The study site is the Kalahari Transect (KT), in southern Africa, which follows a north-south decline in mean annual rainfall from ˜1600 mm/yr to ˜250 mm/yr between the latitudes 12°--26°S. Eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements taken over a time frame of 1--9 days at four sites along the transect during the wet (growing) season revealed that the ecosystem water use efficiency for the sites, defined as the ratio of net carbon flux to evapotranspiration, decreased with increasing mean annual rainfall. EC data were used to parameterize a large eddy simulation model, which was applied over a heterogeneous remotely-sensed surface. Water availability for the vegetation was found to affect the relative controls (structural vs. meteorological) on the spatial distribution of vegetation fluxes. When the spatial distribution of vapor pressure deficit, D, was most predictable (i.e. non water-limiting conditions) it was unimportant in shaping the distribution of the vegetation fluxes, while at times when D was least predictable (i.e. water-limiting conditions) it was most important. This observation is explained by the relative degree of vegetation-atmosphere coupling and the complexity of the non-local effects on D , both of which are dependent upon water availability. Based upon the differing ways in which trees and grass respond to interannual variability in rainfall, a new method was developed to estimate fractional tree, grass, and bare soil cover from a synthesis of satellite and ground-based data. This method was applied to the KT where it was found that tree fractional cover declines with mean annual rainfall, while grass fractional cover peaks near the middle of the gradient. A soil moisture model applied to this data indicated a shift from nutrient- to water-limitation from the mesic to arid portions of

  6. Late- and post-glacial vegetation dynamics in Western Rhodopes (Bulgaria) based on pollen analysis and radiocarbon dating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filipovitch, L.; Lazarova, M.

    2002-01-01

    This study offers a reconstruction of Quaternary vegetation in the region of Shiroka Polyana (Western Rhodopes mountains) on the basis of pollen analysis and 14 C dating. It helps to trace out the trends in vegetation dynamics. The palaeosuccession cycle providing valuable floristic and coenotic information about the Late Glacial (13000 BP) and the entire Holocene throughout several major stages is recreated: grassy communities, thermophilus deciduous forests, fir-hornbeam-beech forests, spruce-pine forests, pine-spruce forests. (authors)

  7. Vegetation dynamic characteristics and its responses to climate change in Jinghe River watershed of Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F.; Liu, W.; Zhou, H.; Ning, T.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Jinghe River is a second-order tributary of the Yellow River, and located in the middle-south part of the Loess Plateau. The watershed area is 45421km², with the mean annual precipitation (P) being about 508mm and aridity index 2.09. For a long time, soil and water loss in this watershed is severe, resulting in very fragile ecological environment. The GIMMS-normalized vegetation index NDVI is used to reflect condition of vegetation cover, and P and Penman potential evapotranspiration (ET) to represent climate water and heat conditions. The annual actual ET is estimated as the difference between P and runoff (ignoring the change of watershed water storage during each hydrological year, May to April of the following year). These concepts were introduced to discuss the dynamic characteristics of vegetation cover and its response to climate change. Results showed that the mean annual NDVI value was 0.51, showing a stable increasing trend from 2000 with an annual increasing rate of 8.7×10¯³. This result is consistent with the implementation of the project that converts farmland to forests and grassland and has achieved remarkable success in the Loess Plateau since 1999. It also indicates that the positive impact of human activity has been strengthened under the background of climate change. From 1982 to 2012, the annual actual ET was 464mm, accounting for 93.6% of annual P over the same period. The NDVI value of main growing season (5-9 months) is significantly correlated with annual P and annual humid index (ratio of annual P to annual potential ET). Vegetation water consumption is the main part of land surface ET, and the relationship between annual actual ET and NDVI value over the same period is also significant. The NDVI value, P and potential ET variation varied substantially within the Jinghe River watershed, and their relationships in different regions at an inter-annual scale are different. Currently, we are investigating the influence of the changes in

  8. A dynamical model of terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firdaus Udwadia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.

  9. Effect of management systems and cover crops on organic matter dynamics of soil under vegetables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo Fernandes de Souza

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Vegetable production in conservation tillage has increased in Brazil, with positive effects on the soil quality. Since management systems alter the quantity and quality of organic matter, this study evaluated the influence of different management systems and cover crops on the organic matter dynamics of a dystrophic Red Latosol under vegetables. The treatments consisted of the combination of three soil tillage systems: no-tillage (NT, reduced tillage (RT and conventional tillage (CT and of two cover crops: maize monoculture and maize-mucuna intercrop. Vegetables were grown in the winter and the cover crops in the summer for straw production. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with four replications. Soil samples were collected between the crop rows in three layers (0.0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, and 0.10-0.30 m twice: in October, before planting cover crops for straw, and in July, during vegetable cultivation. The total organic carbon (TOC, microbial biomass carbon (MBC, oxidizable fractions, and the carbon fractions fulvic acid (C FA, humic acid (C HA and humin (C HUM were determined. The main changes in these properties occurred in the upper layers (0.0-0.05 and 0.05-0.10 m where, in general, TOC levels were highest in NT with maize straw. The MBC levels were lowest in CT systems, indicating sensitivity to soil disturbance. Under mucuna, the levels of C HA were lower in RT than NT systems, while the C FA levels were lower in RT than CT. For vegetable production, the C HUM values were lowest in the 0.05-0.10 m layer under CT. With regard to the oxidizable fractions, the tillage systems differed only in the most labile C fractions, with higher levels in NT than CT in the 0.0-0.05 m layer in both summer and winter, with no differences between these systems in the other layers. The cabbage yield was not influenced by the soil management system, but benefited from the mulch production of the preceding maize-mucuna intercrop as cover

  10. A model for estimating understory vegetation response to fertilization and precipitation in loblolly pine plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis L. VanderSchaaf; Ryan W. McKnight; Thomas R. Fox; H. Lee Allen

    2010-01-01

    A model form is presented, where the model contains regressors selected for inclusion based on biological rationale, to predict how fertilization, precipitation amounts, and overstory stand density affect understory vegetation biomass. Due to time, economic, and logistic constraints, datasets of large sample sizes generally do not exist for understory vegetation. Thus...

  11. Vegetation dynamics in Bishrampur collieries of northern Chhattisgarh, India: eco-restoration and management perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, A; Jhariya, M K; Yadav, D K; Banerjee, A

    2017-08-01

    Phytosociological study in and around reclaimed coal mine site is an essential requirement for judging restoration impact on a disturbed site. Various studies have been aimed towards assessing the impact of different restoration practices on coal mine wastelands. Plantation scheme in a scientific way is the most suitable approach in this context. During the present investigation, an effort have been made to assess the vegetation dynamics through structure, composition, diversity, and forest floor biomass analysis in and around Bishrampur collieries, Sarguja division, northern Chhattisgarh, India. We have tried to develop strategies for eco-restoration and habitat management of the concerned study sites. Four sites were randomly selected in different directions of the study area. We classified the vegetation community of the study sites into various strata on the basis of height. Two hundred forty quadrats were laid down in various directions of the study area to quantify vegetation under different strata. During our investigation, we found eight different tree species representing four families in the different study sites. The density of the various tree species ranged between 40 and 160 individuals ha -1 . The density of sapling, seedling, shrub, and herb ranged between 740 and 1620; 2000 and 6000; 1200 and 2000; and 484,000 and 612,000 individuals ha -1 , respectively, in different directions. The diversity indices of the tree reflected highest Shannon index value of 1.91. Simpsons index ranged between 0.28 and 0.50, species richness ranged between 0.27 and 0.61, equitability up to 1.44, and Beta diversity ranged between 2.00 and 4.00. Total forest floor biomass ranged between 4.20 and 5.65 t/ha among the study sites. Highest forest floor biomass occurred in the south direction and lowest at east direction. Total forest floor biomass declined by 6.19% in west, 13.10% in north, and 25.66% in east direction, respectively. The mining activities resulted

  12. Mathematical model of 137Cs dynamics in the deciduous forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamikhin, S.V.; Klyashtorin, A.L.

    1999-01-01

    A mathematical model of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest ecosystem is presented. The behaviour of this radionuclide is assumed to obey the same regularities as the behaviour of its stable chemical analogue, potassium. Radionuclide dynamics are considered in parallel with the dynamics of the phytomass. Radionuclides contained in the vegetation are pooled into two basic compartments: external and internal contamination, with separate analysis of each. The model was verified using the data obtained in the 30-km zone of the Chernobyl NPP in 1986-1994. The algorithm described was found to be the most efficient in terms of 137 Cs behaviour in the forest environments

  13. Influence of soil moisture on the modelling of evapotranspiration in sparse vegetation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villagarcia, L.; Were, A.; Morillas, L.; Garcia, M.; Domingo, F.; Puigdefabregas, J.

    2009-01-01

    This work analyses the relevance of soil water content (θ) on the estimation of actual evapotranspiration (λE) in sparse vegetated areas. This importance is evaluated through the effect of the θ heterogeneity, both vertical and horizontal (differentiating between bare soil (bs) and soil under vegetation (s)), on λE estimates. A clumped evapotranspiration model (CM) that considers vegetation (p), bs and s as sources of evaporation, was used. This model estimates λE of the whole vegetated area, as well as the contribution of each source. (Author) 11 refs.

  14. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

  15. Critical Zone Co-dynamics: Quantifying Interactions between Subsurface, Land Surface, and Vegetation Properties Using UAV and Geophysical Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dafflon, B.; Leger, E.; Peterson, J.; Falco, N.; Wainwright, H. M.; Wu, Y.; Tran, A. P.; Brodie, E.; Williams, K. H.; Versteeg, R.; Hubbard, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    Improving understanding and modelling of terrestrial systems requires advances in measuring and quantifying interactions among subsurface, land surface and vegetation processes over relevant spatiotemporal scales. Such advances are important to quantify natural and managed ecosystem behaviors, as well as to predict how watershed systems respond to increasingly frequent hydrological perturbations, such as droughts, floods and early snowmelt. Our study focuses on the joint use of UAV-based multi-spectral aerial imaging, ground-based geophysical tomographic monitoring (incl., electrical and electromagnetic imaging) and point-scale sensing (soil moisture sensors and soil sampling) to quantify interactions between above and below ground compartments of the East River Watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin. We evaluate linkages between physical properties (incl. soil composition, soil electrical conductivity, soil water content), metrics extracted from digital surface and terrain elevation models (incl., slope, wetness index) and vegetation properties (incl., greenness, plant type) in a 500 x 500 m hillslope-floodplain subsystem of the watershed. Data integration and analysis is supported by numerical approaches that simulate the control of soil and geomorphic characteristic on hydrological processes. Results provide an unprecedented window into critical zone interactions, revealing significant below- and above-ground co-dynamics. Baseline geophysical datasets provide lithological structure along the hillslope, which includes a surface soil horizon, underlain by a saprolite layer and the fractured Mancos shale. Time-lapse geophysical data show very different moisture dynamics in various compartments and locations during the winter and growing season. Integration with aerial imaging reveals a significant linkage between plant growth and the subsurface wetness, soil characteristics and the topographic gradient. The obtained information about the organization and

  16. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

  17. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...

  18. Landscape dynamics in the Arctic foothills: Landscape evolution and vegetation succession on disturbances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, D.A.; Walker, M.D.

    1990-10-20

    This document contains a summary of research accomplished by the University of Colorado's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) Joint Facility for Regional Ecosystem Analysis (JFREA) for the Department of Energy's R D research program for 1989--1990. Aerial photographs, orthophoto topographic maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Toolik Lake region site were prepared by Aeromap US at 1:500 and 1:5000 scales. During August 1990, the region surrounding Toolik Lake was mapped at 1:5000 scale, and the intensive research grid was mapped at 1:500 scale. Mapped variables include vegetation, landforms, surface forms, and percentage surface water. Soil data from the Imnavait Creek and Toolik Lake sites are central to the analysis of landscape evolution. Soils were collected from the base of the O horizon at 72 gridpoints on the 1:500-scale map area at Imnavait Creek, and 85 grid points at Toolik Lake. Soils are being analyzed for percentage moisture, pH (saturated paste), electrical conductivity, percentage organic matter, nitrate, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, iron, manganese, copper. Soils were also collected from 81 permanent plots (199 horizons) which will be used for vegetation-environmental analyses. Permanent 1 {times} 1-meter point-quadrat plots were established at 85 points of the Toolik Lake grid. Data from the plots will be stratified according to slope position and terrain unit and used to compare vegetation structure and cover on different aged surfaces. Work continued on the study of the effects of road dust on tundra vegetation. 28 figs.

  19. Radiative transfer in shrub savanna sites in Niger: preliminary results from HAPEX-Sahel. 3. Optical dynamics and vegetation index sensitivity to biomass and plant cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leeuwen, W.J.D. van; Huete, A.R.; Duncan, J.; Franklin, J.

    1994-01-01

    A shrub savannah landscape in Niger was optically characterized utilizing blue, green, red and near-infrared wavelengths. Selected vegetation indices were evaluated for their performance and sensitivity to describe the complex Sahelian soil/vegetation canopies. Bidirectional reflectance factors (BRF) of plants and soils were measured at several view angles, and used as input to various vegetation indices. Both soil and vegetation targets had strong anisotropic reflectance properties, rendering all vegetation index (VI) responses to be a direct function of sun and view geometry. Soil background influences were shown to alter the response of most vegetation indices. N-space greenness had the smallest dynamic range in VI response, but the n-space brightness index provided additional useful information. The global environmental monitoring index (GEMI) showed a large VI dynamic range for bare soils, which was undesirable for a vegetation index. The view angle response of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), atmosphere resistant vegetation index (ARVI) and soil atmosphere resistant vegetation index (SARVI) were asymmetric about nadir for multiple view angles, and were, except for the SARVI, altered seriously by soil moisture and/or soil brightness effects. The soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) was least affected by surface soil moisture and was symmetric about nadir for grass vegetation covers. Overall the SAVI, SARVI and the n-space vegetation index performed best under all adverse conditions and were recommended to monitor vegetation growth in the sparsely vegetated Sahelian zone. (author)

  20. Improved meteorology from an updated WRF/CMAQ modeling system with MODIS vegetation and albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Realistic vegetation characteristics and phenology from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products improve the simulation for the meteorology and air quality modeling system WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Qual...

  1. Microwave measurement and modeling of the dielectric properties of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Bijay Lal

    Some of the important applications of microwaves in the industrial, scientific and medical sectors include processing and treatment of various materials, and determining their physical properties. The dielectric properties of the materials of interest are paramount irrespective of the applications, hence, a wide range of materials covering food products, building materials, ores and fuels, and biological materials have been investigated for their dielectric properties. However, very few studies have been conducted towards the measurement of dielectric properties of green vegetations, including commercially important plant crops such as alfalfa. Because of its high nutritional value, there is a huge demand for this plant and its processed products in national and international markets, and an investigation into the possibility of applying microwaves to improve both the net yield and quality of the crop can be beneficial. Therefore, a dielectric measurement system based upon the probe reflection technique has been set up to measure dielectric properties of green plants over a frequency range from 300 MHz to 18 GHz, moisture contents from 12%, wet basis to 79%, wet basis, and temperatures from -15°C to 30°C. Dielectric properties of chopped alfalfa were measured with this system over frequency range of 300 MHz to 18 GHz, moisture content from 11.5%, wet basis, to 73%, wet basis, and density over the range from 139 kg m-3 to 716 kg m-3 at 23°C. The system accuracy was found to be +/-6% and +/-10% in measuring the dielectric constant and loss factor respectively. Empirical, semi empirical and theoretical models that require only moisture content and operating frequency were determined to represent the dielectric properties of both leaves and stems of alfalfa at 22°C. The empirical models fitted the measured dielectric data extremely well. The root mean square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (r2) for dielectric constant and loss factor of leaves

  2. Business model dynamics and innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm

    2011-01-01

    the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... and specifies four different types of business model change: business model creation, extension, revision, and termination. Each type of business model change is associated with specific challenges. Practical implications – The proposed typology can serve as a basis for developing a management tool to evaluate......Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...

  3. On whole Abelian model dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chauca, J.; Doria, R. [CBPF, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Aprendanet, Petropolis, 25600 (Brazil)

    2012-09-24

    Physics challenge is to determine the objects dynamics. However, there are two ways for deciphering the part. The first one is to search for the ultimate constituents; the second one is to understand its behaviour in whole terms. Therefore, the parts can be defined either from elementary constituents or as whole functions. Historically, science has been moving through the first aspect, however, quarks confinement and complexity are interrupting this usual approach. These relevant facts are supporting for a systemic vision be introduced. Our effort here is to study on the whole meaning through gauge theory. Consider a systemic dynamics oriented through the U(1) - systemic gauge parameter which function is to collect a fields set {l_brace}A{sub {mu}I}{r_brace}. Derive the corresponding whole gauge invariant Lagrangian, equations of motion, Bianchi identities, Noether relationships, charges and Ward-Takahashi equations. Whole Lorentz force and BRST symmetry are also studied. These expressions bring new interpretations further than the usual abelian model. They are generating a systemic system governed by 2N+ 10 classical equations plus Ward-Takahashi identities. A whole dynamics based on the notions of directive and circumstance is producing a set determinism where the parts dynamics are inserted in the whole evolution. A dynamics based on state, collective and individual equations with a systemic interdependence.

  4. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  5. Vegetable oil and fat viscosity forecast models based on iodine number and saponification number

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toscano, G.; Riva, G.; Foppa Pedretti, E.; Duca, D.

    2012-01-01

    Vegetable oil and fats can be considered as an important renewable source for the energy production. There are many applications where these biofuels are used directly in engines. However, the use of pure vegetable oils causes some problems as consequence of its chemical and physical characteristic. Viscosity is one of the most important parameters affecting several physical and mechanical processes of the operation of the engine. The determination of this parameter at different tis important to determine the behavior of the vegetable oil and fats. In this work we investigated the effects of two analytical chemical parameters (iodine number and saponification number) and forecasting models have been proposed. -- Highlights: ► Vegetable oil and fat viscosity is predicted by mathematical model based on saponification number and iodine number. ► Unsaturated vegetable oils with small size molecules of fatty acids have a lower viscosity values. ► The models proposed show an average error lower than 12%

  6. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  7. Modelling the number of viable vegetative cells of Bacillus cereus passing through the stomach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnands, L.M.; Pielaat, A.; Dufrenne, J.B.; Zwietering, M.H.; Leusden, van F.M.

    2009-01-01

    Aims: Model the number of viable vegetative cells of B. cereus surviving the gastric passage after experiments in simulated gastric conditions. Materials and Methods: The inactivation of stationary and exponential phase vegetative cells of twelve different strains of Bacillus cereus, both mesophilic

  8. A simulation model for methane emissions from landfills with interaction of vegetation and cover soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bian, Rongxing; Xin, Danhui; Chai, Xiaoli

    2018-01-01

    Global climate change and ecological problems brought about by greenhouse gas effect have become a severe threat to humanity in the 21st century. Vegetation plays an important role in methane (CH 4 ) transport, oxidation and emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills as it modifies the physical and chemical properties of the cover soil, and transports CH 4 to the atmosphere directly via their conduits, which are mainly aerenchymatous structures. In this study, a novel 2-D simulation CH 4 emission model was established, based on an interactive mechanism of cover soil and vegetation, to model CH 4 transport, oxidation and emissions in landfill cover soil. Results of the simulation model showed that the distribution of CH 4 concentration and emission fluxes displayed a significant difference between vegetated and non-vegetated areas. CH 4 emission flux was 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than bare areas in simulation conditions. Vegetation play a negative role in CH 4 emissions from landfill cover soil due to the strong CH 4 transport capacity even though vegetation also promotes CH 4 oxidation via changing properties of cover soil and emitting O 2 via root system. The model will be proposed to allow decision makers to reconsider the actual CH 4 emission from vegetated and non-vegetated covered landfills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

  10. Social Dynamics Modeling and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-29

    the experiment(s)/ theory and equipment or analyses. Development of innovative theoretical model and methodologies with experimental verifications...information. The methodology based on communication and information theory (thanks to leave at MIT supported by this research) is described in [J1], [C2...a dynamic system [C1] and as a social learning mechanism in details [J4]. Furthermore, by incentive seeding and rewiring connections, information

  11. Measurement and modelling of evapotranspiration in three fynbos vegetation types

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dzikiti, Sebinasi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available sites. In this study we determined water use by 3 fynbos vegetation types growing at 4 different sites, namely: (i) lowland Atlantis Sand Plain fynbos growing on deep sandy soils, (ii) Kogelberg Sandstone fynbos growing in a riparian zone on deep...

  12. Modeling the effects of urban vegetation on air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Patrick J. McHale; Myriam Ibarra; Daniel Crane; Jack C. Stevens; Chris J. Luley

    1998-01-01

    Urban vegetation can directly and indirectly affect local and regional air quality by altering the urban atmospheric environment. Trees affect local air temperature by transpiring water through their leaves, by blocking solar radiation (tree shade), which reduces radiation absorption and heat storage by various anthropogenic surfaces (e.g., buildings, roads), and by...

  13. Levels of tritium in soils and vegetation near Canadian nuclear facilities releasing tritium to the atmosphere: implications for environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.A.; Kwamena, N.-O.A.; Ilin, M.; Wilk, M.; Clark, I.D.

    2015-01-01

    Concentrations of organically bound tritium (OBT) and tritiated water (HTO) were measured over two growing seasons in vegetation and soil samples obtained in the vicinity of four nuclear facilities and two background locations in Canada. At the background locations, with few exceptions, OBT concentrations were higher than HTO concentrations: OBT/HTO ratios in vegetation varied between 0.3 and 20 and values in soil varied between 2.7 and 15. In the vicinity of the four nuclear facilities OBT/HTO ratios in vegetation and soils deviated from the expected mean value of 0.7, which is used as a default value in environmental transfer models. Ratios of the OBT activity concentration in plants ([OBT] plant ) to the OBT activity concentration in soils ([OBT] soil ) appear to be a good indicator of the long-term behaviour of tritium in soil and vegetation. In general, OBT activity concentrations in soils were nearly equal to OBT activity concentrations in plants in the vicinity of the two nuclear power plants. [OBT] plant /[OBT] soil ratios considerably below unity observed at one nuclear processing facility represents historically higher levels of tritium in the environment. The results of our study reflect the dynamic nature of HTO retention and OBT formation in vegetation and soil during the growing season. Our data support the mounting evidence suggesting that some parameters used in environmental transfer models approved for regulatory assessments should be revisited to better account for the behavior of HTO and OBT in the environment and to ensure that modelled estimates (e.g., plant OBT) are appropriately conservative. - Highlights: • We measured tritium in soils and plants near four nuclear facilities in Canada. • OBT/HTO ratios in plants are higher than default value in environmental models. • OBT/HTO ratios in background soils reflect historically higher atmospheric tritium. • Implications for environmental transfer models are discussed

  14. Savanna Vegetation Dynamics and their Influence on Landscape-Scale C, N, and P Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutton, T. W.; Zhou, Y.; Wu, X. B.; Hyodo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles are strongly interlinked and controlled through biological processes, and the P cycle is further controlled through geochemical processes. In grasslands, savannas, and other dryland ecosystems throughout the world, woody plant encroachment often modifies soil C, N, and P stores, although it remains unknown if these three elements change proportionally in response to this vegetation change. We evaluated proportional changes and spatial patterns of soil organic C (SOC), total N (TN), and total P (TP) following woody encroachment by taking spatially-explicit soil cores to a depth of 1.2 m across a subtropical savanna landscape which has undergone encroachment by trees and shrubs during the past century in the Rio Grande Plains, USA. SOC and TN were coupled with respect to increasing magnitudes and spatial patterns along the soil profile following woody encroachment. In contrast, TP increased slower than SOC and TN in surface soils, but faster in subsurface soils. Spatial patterns of TP strongly resembled those of vegetation cover throughout the soil profile, but differed from those of SOC and TN, especially in deeper portions of the profile. The encroachment of woody plants into this P-limited ecosystem resulted in the accumulation of proportionally less soil P compared to C and N in surface soils; however, proportionally more P accrued in deeper portions of the profile beneath woody patches where alkaline soil pH and high carbonate concentrations would favor precipitation of P as relatively insoluble calcium phosphates. Structural equation models (SEM) showed that fine root density explained the greatest proportion of variation in SOC, TN, and TP in the surface soil. In deeper portions of the profile, SEM showed that silt and clay explained much of the variation in SOC and TN, while soil pH strongly controlled TP. This imbalanced relationship highlights that the relative importance of biotic vs. abiotic

  15. [Application of biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes in urban biodiversity conservation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tian; Qiu, Ling; Chen, Cun-gen

    2010-09-01

    Based on the biotope classification system with vegetation structure as the framework, a modified biotope mapping model integrated with vegetation cover continuity attributes was developed, and applied to the study of the greenbelts in Helsingborg in southern Sweden. An evaluation of the vegetation cover continuity in the greenbelts was carried out by the comparisons of the vascular plant species richness in long- and short-continuity forests, based on the identification of woodland continuity by using ancient woodland indicator species (AWIS). In the test greenbelts, long-continuity woodlands had more AWIS. Among the forests where the dominant trees were more than 30-year-old, the long-continuity ones had a higher biodiversity of vascular plants, compared with the short-continuity ones with the similar vegetation structure. The modified biotope mapping model integrated with the continuity features of vegetation cover could be an important tool in investigating urban biodiversity, and provide corresponding strategies for future urban biodiversity conservation.

  16. Monitoring of oil palm plantations and growth variations with a dense vegetation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teng, Khar Chun; Koay, Jun Yi; Tey, Seng Heng

    2014-01-01

    The development of microwave remote sensing models for the monitoring of vegetation has received wide attention in recent years. For vegetation in the tropics, it is necessary to consider a dense medium model for the theoretical modelling of the microwave interaction with the vegetation medium....... In this paper, a multilayer model based on the radiative transfer theory for a dense vegetation medium is developed where the coherence effects and near field interaction effects of closely spaced leaves and branches are considered by incorporating the Dense Medium Phase and Amplitude Correction Theory (DM......-PACT) and Fresnel Phase Corrections. The iterative solutions of the radiative transfer model are computed with input based on ground truth measurements of physical parameters of oil palm plantations in the state of Perak, Malaysia, and compared with the SAR images obtained from RADARSAT2. Preliminary results...

  17. Fuel dynamics and fire behaviour in Australian mallee and heath vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juanita Myers; Jim Gould; Miguel Cruz; Meredith Henderson

    2007-01-01

    In southern Australia, shrubby heath vegetation together with woodlands dominated by multistemmed eucalypts (mallee) comprise areas of native vegetation with important biodiversity values. These vegetation types occur in semiarid and mediterranean climates and can experience large frequent fires. This study is investigating changes in the fuel complex with time, fuel...

  18. Changes in vegetative communities and water table dynamics following timber harvesting in small headwater streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    B. Choi; J.C. Dewey; J. A. Hatten; A.W. Ezell; Z. Fan

    2012-01-01

    In order to better understand the relationship between vegetation communities and water table in the uppermost portions (ephemeral–intermittent streams) of headwater systems, seasonal plot-based field characterizations of vegetation were used in conjunction with monthly water table measurements. Vegetation, soils, and water table data were examined to determine...

  19. Using vegetation structure estimates derived from multi-source remote sensing to predict dynamics of a semi-arid ecosystem in the western US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, R.; Mitchell, J. J.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

    2014-12-01

    The distribution of species and vegetation types across the western US are expected to shift in response to climate change. Previous studies have documented the change in fire regime and the increasing fire-invasive grass cycle occurring in the western U.S. The change in vegetation structure due to climate change and invasive species alters the fuel load, making these ecosystems vulnerable to high-severity fire. Synergistic remote sensing data, such as hyperspectral data and high-resolution lidar, can be leveraged to capture the composition and structural variability of short-statured semiarid vegetation (e.g. sagebrush, annual grasses). We use a random-forests based fusion technique to integrate multi-source airborne data (hyperspectral and LiDAR) and generate spatially-explicit estimates of vegetation composition and structure (biomass, cover, density, height, LAI) and associated uncertainty across a climate and elevation gradient in southern Idaho. The results will be used to initialize an individual-based terrestrial biosphere model (Ecosystem Demography, ED2) and estimate structural dynamics under future scenarios. This study will provide a basis for understanding feedback mechanisms related to changing climate conditions, fire regimes and patterns of non-native plant invasion. The forthcoming field and remote sensing collection campaigns are also designed for parameterizing a dryland shrub plant functional type in the ED2 model.

  20. Autophagy contributes to regulation of nuclear dynamics during vegetative growth and hyphal fusion in Fusarium oxysporum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corral-Ramos, Cristina; Roca, M Gabriela; Di Pietro, Antonio; Roncero, M Isabel G; Ruiz-Roldán, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    In the fungal pathogen Fusarium oxysporum, vegetative hyphal fusion triggers nuclear mitotic division in the invading hypha followed by migration of a nucleus into the receptor hypha and degradation of the resident nucleus. Here we examined the role of autophagy in fusion-induced nuclear degradation. A search of the F. oxysporum genome database for autophagy pathway components identified putative orthologs of 16 core autophagy-related (ATG) genes in yeast, including the ubiquitin-like protein Atg8, which is required for the formation of autophagosomal membranes. F. oxysporum Foatg8Δ mutants were generated in a strain harboring H1-cherry fluorescent protein (ChFP)-labeled nuclei to facilitate analysis of nuclear dynamics. The Foatg8Δ mutants did not show MDC-positive staining in contrast to the wild type and the FoATG8-complemented (cFoATG8) strain, suggesting that FoAtg8 is required for autophagy in F. oxysporum. The Foatg8Δ strains displayed reduced rates of hyphal growth, conidiation, and fusion, and were significantly attenuated in virulence on tomato plants and in the nonvertebrate animal host Galleria mellonella. In contrast to wild-type hyphae, which are almost exclusively composed of uninucleated hyphal compartments, the hyphae of the Foatg8Δ mutants contained a significant fraction of hyphal compartments with 2 or more nuclei. The increase in the number of nuclei per hyphal compartment was particularly evident after hyphal fusion events. Time-lapse microscopy analyses revealed abnormal mitotic patterns during vegetative growth in the Foatg8Δ mutants. Our results suggest that autophagy mediates nuclear degradation after hyphal fusion and has a general function in the control of nuclear distribution in F. oxysporum.

  1. Development of a functional approach in a grassland vegetation sub-model = Desenvolvimento de uma abordagem funcional em um submodelo vegetal campestre

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-François Soussana

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available To improve our understanding of grassland dynamics under different levels of utilization, a functional description of the vegetation was introduced in a deterministic model. The selected traits and their parameterization were based on the results of a longtermexperiment in which temperate grasslands were managed for 12 years with three levels of herbage use: high, medium and low. The integration of functional attributes of the community species within the model’s parameters can be seen as a new step in the study ofthe grassland ecosystem. With this tool, it is possible to decrease the number of interconnections in the system and consequently decrease the complexity. In this work a, functional definition of three different grassland communities was introduced into the subvegetation model. This was done by interchanging the model’s parameters with the functional attributes of the communities. From the conceptual point of view, the subvegetation model works adequately and it seems suitable to simulate the dynamic ofgrassland vegetation described by functional traits. The model fits experimental data well for high levels of utilization, but was poorly adjusted at medium and low levels of herbage use. We believe this is due to a better simulation of green biomass fluxes than forsenescence or reproductive fluxes. Some possible improvements of the model are discussed.Para aumentar a nossa compreensão sobre a dinâmica da vegetação campestre em diferentes níveis de utilização, foi introduzido num modelo determinístico uma descrição funcional da vegetação. Os atributos funcionais escolhidos e suas parametrizações foram baseadosem resultados de experimento de longo prazo, no qual pastagens temperadas foram manejadas por 12 anos com três níveis de utilização: alto, médio e baixo. A integração de atributos funcionais da comunidade vegetal nos parâmetros do modelo pode ser vista como um novo passo no estudo de ecossistemas pastoris

  2. LEAF AREA DYNAMICS AND ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS OF SPECIFIC VEGETATION TYPES OF A SEMI-ARID GRASSLAND IN SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bosco Kidake Kisambo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Leaf Area Index (LAI dynamics and aboveground biomass of a semi-arid grassland region in Southern Ethiopia were determined over a long rain season. The vegetation was categorized into four distinct vegetation types namely Grassland (G, Tree-Grassland (TG, Bushed-Grassland (BG and Bush-Tree grassland (BT. LAI was measured using a Plant Canopy Analyzer (LAI2000. Biomass dynamics of litter and herbaceous components were determined through clipping while the above ground biomass of trees and shrubs were estimated using species-specific allometric equations from literature. LAI showed a seasonal increase over the season with the maximum recorded in the BG vegetation (2.52. Total aboveground biomass for the different vegetation types ranged from 0.61 ton C/ha in areas where trees were non-existent to 8.80 ± 3.81ton C/ha in the Tree-Grassland vegetation in the study site. A correlation of LAI and AGB yielded a positive relationship with an R2 value of 0.55. The results demonstrate the importance of tropical semi-arid grasslands as carbon sinks hence their potential in mitigation of climate change.

  3. Multiscale modeling of pedestrian dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cristiani, Emiliano; Tosin, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    This book presents mathematical models and numerical simulations of crowd dynamics. The core topic is the development of a new multiscale paradigm, which bridges the microscopic and macroscopic scales taking the most from each of them for capturing the relevant clues of complexity of crowds. The background idea is indeed that most of the complex trends exhibited by crowds are due to an intrinsic interplay between individual and collective behaviors. The modeling approach promoted in this book pursues actively this intuition and profits from it for designing general mathematical structures susceptible of application also in fields different from the inspiring original one. The book considers also the two most traditional points of view: the microscopic one, in which pedestrians are tracked individually, and the macroscopic one, in which pedestrians are assimilated to a continuum. Selected existing models are critically analyzed. The work is addressed to researchers and graduate students.

  4. Evaluation of a Linear Mixing Model to Retrieve Soil and Vegetation Temperatures of Land Targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jinxin; Jia, Li; Cui, Yaokui; Zhou, Jie; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-01-01

    A simple linear mixing model of heterogeneous soil-vegetation system and retrieval of component temperatures from directional remote sensing measurements by inverting this model is evaluated in this paper using observations by a thermal camera. The thermal camera was used to obtain multi-angular TIR (Thermal Infra-Red) images over vegetable and orchard canopies. A whole thermal camera image was treated as a pixel of a satellite image to evaluate the model with the two-component system, i.e. soil and vegetation. The evaluation included two parts: evaluation of the linear mixing model and evaluation of the inversion of the model to retrieve component temperatures. For evaluation of the linear mixing model, the RMSE is 0.2 K between the observed and modelled brightness temperatures, which indicates that the linear mixing model works well under most conditions. For evaluation of the model inversion, the RMSE between the model retrieved and the observed vegetation temperatures is 1.6K, correspondingly, the RMSE between the observed and retrieved soil temperatures is 2.0K. According to the evaluation of the sensitivity of retrieved component temperatures on fractional cover, the linear mixing model gives more accurate retrieval accuracies for both soil and vegetation temperatures under intermediate fractional cover conditions

  5. Levels of tritium in soils and vegetation near Canadian nuclear facilities releasing tritium to the atmosphere: implications for environmental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, P A; Kwamena, N-O A; Ilin, M; Wilk, M; Clark, I D

    2015-02-01

    Concentrations of organically bound tritium (OBT) and tritiated water (HTO) were measured over two growing seasons in vegetation and soil samples obtained in the vicinity of four nuclear facilities and two background locations in Canada. At the background locations, with few exceptions, OBT concentrations were higher than HTO concentrations: OBT/HTO ratios in vegetation varied between 0.3 and 20 and values in soil varied between 2.7 and 15. In the vicinity of the four nuclear facilities OBT/HTO ratios in vegetation and soils deviated from the expected mean value of 0.7, which is used as a default value in environmental transfer models. Ratios of the OBT activity concentration in plants ([OBT]plant) to the OBT activity concentration in soils ([OBT]soil) appear to be a good indicator of the long-term behaviour of tritium in soil and vegetation. In general, OBT activity concentrations in soils were nearly equal to OBT activity concentrations in plants in the vicinity of the two nuclear power plants. [OBT]plant/[OBT]soil ratios considerably below unity observed at one nuclear processing facility represents historically higher levels of tritium in the environment. The results of our study reflect the dynamic nature of HTO retention and OBT formation in vegetation and soil during the growing season. Our data support the mounting evidence suggesting that some parameters used in environmental transfer models approved for regulatory assessments should be revisited to better account for the behavior of HTO and OBT in the environment and to ensure that modelled estimates (e.g., plant OBT) are appropriately conservative. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Simulating Microwave Scattering for Wetland Vegetation in Poyang Lake, Southeast China, Using a Coherent Scattering Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjuan Liao

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We developed a polarimetric coherent electromagnetic scattering model for Poyang Lake wetland vegetation. Realistic canopy structures including curved leaves and the lodging situation of the vegetation were taken into account, and the situation at the ground surface was established using an Advanced Integral Equation Model combined with Oh’s 2002 model. This new model can reasonably describe the coherence effect caused by the phase differences of the electromagnetic fields scattered from different particles by different scattering mechanisms. We obtained good agreement between the modeling results and C-band data from the Radarsat-2 satellite. A simulation of scattering from the vegetation in Poyang Lake showed that direct vegetation scattering and the single-ground-bounce mechanism are the dominant scattering mechanisms in the C-band and L-band, while the effects of the double-ground-bounce mechanism are very small. We note that the curvature of the leaves and the lodging characteristics of the vegetation cannot be ignored in the modeling process. Monitoring soil moisture in the Poyang Lake wetland with the C-band data was not feasible because of the density and depth of Poyang Lake vegetation. When the density of Poyang Lake Carex increases, the backscattering coefficient either decreases or remains stable.

  7. Design and dynamic simulation of a novel polygeneration system fed by vegetable oil and by solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calise, Francesco; Palombo, Adolfo; Vanoli, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A novel polygeneration system based on engines (RE) fed by rapeseed oil is investigated. ► RE are integrated with high temperature solar heating and cooling systems. ► The polygeneration system is dynamically investigated for a Mediterranean Climate. ► System performance is excellent from the energetic point of view. ► The system is economically profitable only in case of feed-in tariffs. - Abstract: In this paper the integration of vegetable oil-fed reciprocating engines with solar thermal collector is investigated, seeking to design a novel polygeneration system producing: electricity, space heating and cooling and domestic hot water, for a university building located in Naples (Italy), assumed as case study. The polygeneration system is based on the following main components: concentrating parabolic trough solar collector, double-stage LiBr–H 2 O absorption chiller and a reciprocating engine fed by vegetable oil. The engine operates at full load producing electrical energy which is in part consumed by the building lights and equipments, in part used by the system passive loads and the rest is eventually sold to the grid. In fact, the engine is grid connected in order to perform a convenient net metering. The system was designed and then simulated by means of a zero-dimensional transient simulation model, developed using the TRNSYS software. The simulation tool developed by the authors allows one to analyze the results for different time basis (minutes, days, weeks, months and years), from both energetic and economic points of view. The economic results show that the system under investigation is profitable, especially if properly funded.

  8. Vegetation patterns and dynamics on a rock glacier in the Northern Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomaselli, M.

    1990-12-01

    Full Text Available The vegetation colonizing a rock glacier in the north-western cirque of M. Giovo (Northern Apennines was recorded according to the Braun-Blanquet method. Numerical methods were employed both to classify and to order the phytosociological relevés. Relevés were classified by average linkage based on the similarity ratio. Four main vegetation types were so identified. They were ecologically characterized by an indirect gradient analysis based on correspondence analysis. Furthermore, dynamic connections between vegetation types were hypothesized by principal component analysis.

    [es] Modelos de vegetación y dinámica en un glaciar rocoso de los Apeninos del Norte (Norte de Italia. Se ha muestreado, según el método fitosociológico de Braun-Blanquet, la colonización vegetal de un glaciar rocoso en el circo glaciar noroeste del M. Giovo (Norte de los Apeninos. Los muestreos han sido clasificados por métodos de análisis numérico. Se definen cuatro modelos de vegetación con la ayuda de la clasificación numérica. El estudio ecológico de los modelos de vegetación se ha realizado con la ayuda del análisis de correspondencias y se ha verificado con el empleo de los valores indicadores ecológicos de LANDOLT (1977. Las tendencias dinámicas de la vegetación se definen con el análisis de componentes principales.
    [fr] Groupements végétaux et dynamique de la végétation sur un glacier rocheux dans les Apennins du Nord (Italie du Nord. La végétation colonisant un glacier rocheux dans le cirque glaciaire nord-ouest du M. Giovo (Apennins du Nord à été relevé selon le méthode phytosociologique. Les relevés ont été classifies et ordonnés par des méthodes d'analyse numérique. 4 types de végétation ont été définis a l'aide de la classification numérique. L'étude écologique des types de végétation à été réalisée par l'analyse des correspondances et vérifié avec l'emploi des valeurs indicatrices

  9. An Idealized Model of Plant and Soil Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burg, David; Malkinson, Dan; Wittenberg, Lea

    2014-05-01

    Following wildfire events the landscape commonly becomes denuded of vegetation cover, resulting in systems prone to soil loss and degradation. In this context soil dynamics are an intricate process balanced between pedogenesis, which is a relatively slow process and erosion which depends on many inert (e.g. soil texture, slope, precipitation and wind) and biological factors such as vegetation properties, grazing intensity, and human disturbance. We develop a simple homogenous, spatially implicit, theoretical model of the global dynamics of the interactions between vegetation and soil using a system of two nonlinear differential equations describing this interdependence, assuming a double feedback between them - plants control erosion and soil availability facilitates plants growth: ( ) dV- -K-- dt = rV K - 1+ aS - V (1) dS-= σ - ɛSe-cT dt (2) where V and S represent vegetation cover and soil availability, respectively. Vegetation growth is similar to the classical logistic model with a growth rate of r(yr1), however, the "carrying capacity" (K) is dependent on soil availability (a1 is the amount of soil where V is reduced by half). Soil influxes at a constant rate σ(mm×yr1) and is eroded at a constant rategɛ (yr-1), while vegetation abates this process modeled as a decreasing exponent as the effectiveness of vegetation in reducing soil erosion (c). Parameter values were chosen from a variable range found in the literature: r=0.01 yr1, K=75%, a1=1, σ=1 mm×yr1, ɛ=0.1 yr1, c=0.08. Complex properties emerge from this model. At certain parameter values (cK≤4) the model predicts one of two steady states - full recovery of vegetation cover or a degraded barren system. However, at certain boundary conditions (cK>4 and Λ1 ≤ σ/ɛ ≤ Λ2, see Article for terms of Λ1 and Λ2) bistability may be observed. We also show that erosion seems to be the determining factor in this system, and we identify the threshold values from which beyond the systems become unstable

  10. ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2017-12-01

    The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.

  11. CubeSats in Hydrology: Ultra-High Resolution Insights into Vegetation Dynamics and Terrestrial Evaporation

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Aragon, B.; Houborg, Rasmus; Mascaro, J.

    2017-01-01

    Satellite-based remote sensing has generally necessitated a trade-off between spatial resolution and temporal frequency, affecting the capacity to observe fast hydrological processes and rapidly changing land surface conditions. An avenue for overcoming these spatiotemporal restrictions is the concept of using constellations of satellites, as opposed to the mission focus exemplified by the more conventional space-agency approach to earth observation. Referred to as CubeSats, these platforms offer the potential to provide new insights into a range of earth system variables and processes. Their emergence heralds a paradigm shift from single-sensor launches to an operational approach that envisions tens to hundreds of small, lightweight and comparatively inexpensive satellites placed into a range of low earth orbits. Although current systems are largely limited to sensing in the optical portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, we demonstrate the opportunity and potential that CubeSats present the hydrological community via the retrieval of vegetation dynamics and terrestrial evaporation and foreshadow future sensing capabilities.

  12. CubeSats in Hydrology: Ultra-High Resolution Insights into Vegetation Dynamics and Terrestrial Evaporation

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    Satellite-based remote sensing has generally necessitated a trade-off between spatial resolution and temporal frequency, affecting the capacity to observe fast hydrological processes and rapidly changing land surface conditions. An avenue for overcoming these spatiotemporal restrictions is the concept of using constellations of satellites, as opposed to the mission focus exemplified by the more conventional space-agency approach to earth observation. Referred to as CubeSats, these platforms offer the potential to provide new insights into a range of earth system variables and processes. Their emergence heralds a paradigm shift from single-sensor launches to an operational approach that envisions tens to hundreds of small, lightweight and comparatively inexpensive satellites placed into a range of low earth orbits. Although current systems are largely limited to sensing in the optical portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, we demonstrate the opportunity and potential that CubeSats present the hydrological community via the retrieval of vegetation dynamics and terrestrial evaporation and foreshadow future sensing capabilities.

  13. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and

  14. Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Young-Ho; Fortunato, Santo

    2011-01-01

    Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well. PMID:21966387

  15. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RIVERBOAT DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Grm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Present work describes a simple dynamical model for riverboat motion based on the square drag law. Air and water interactions with the boat are determined from aerodynamic coefficients. CFX simulations were performed with fully developed turbulent flow to determine boat aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary angle of attack for the air and water portions separately. The effect of wave resistance is negligible compared to other forces. Boat movement analysis considers only two-dimensional motion, therefore only six aerodynamics coefficients are required. The proposed model is solved and used to determine the critical environmental parameters (wind and current under which river navigation can be conducted safely. Boat simulator was tested in a single area on the Ljubljanica river and estimated critical wind velocity.

  16. CoDCon Dynamic Modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Co-Decontamination (CoDCon) Demonstration project is designed to test the separation of a mixed U and Pu product from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The primary purpose of the project is to quantify the accuracy and precision to which a U/Pu mass ratio can be achieved without removing a pure Pu product. The system includes an on-line monitoring system using spectroscopy to monitor the ratios throughout the process. A dynamic model of the CoDCon flowsheet and on-line monitoring system was developed in order to expand the range of scenarios that can be examined for process control and determine overall measurement uncertainty. The model development and initial results are presented here.

  17. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  18. Dynamical modeling of tidal streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bovy, Jo

    2014-01-01

    I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.

  19. Vegetation water stress monitoring with remote sensing-based energy balance modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Dugo, Maria P.; Andreu, Ana; Carpintero, Elisabet; Gómez-Giráldez, Pedro; José Polo, María

    2014-05-01

    Drought is one of the major hazards faced by agroforestry systems in southern Europe, and an increase in frequency is predicted under the conditions of climate change for the region. Timely and accurate monitoring of vegetation water stress using remote sensing time series may assist early-warning services, helping to assess drought impacts and the design of management actions leading to reduce the economic and environmental vulnerability of these systems. A holm oak savanna, known as dehesa in Spain and montado in Portugal, is an agro-silvo-pastoral system occupying more than 3 million hectares the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. It consists of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus ilex L.), combined with crops, pasture and Mediterranean shrubs, and it is considered an example of sustainable land use, with great importance in the rural economy. Soil water dynamics is known to have a central role in current tree decline and the reduction of the forested area that is threatening its conservation. A two-source thermal-based evapotranspiration model (TSEB) has been applied to monitor the effect on vegetation water use of soil moisture stress in a dehesa located in southern Spain. The TSEB model separates the soil and canopy contributions to the radiative temperature and to the exchange of surface energy fluxes, so it is especially suited for partially vegetated landscapes. The integration of remotely sensed data in this model may support an evaluation of the whole ecosystem state at a large scale. During two consecutive summers, in 2012 and 2013, time series of optical and thermal MODIS images, with 250m and 1 km of spatial resolution respectively, have been combined with meteorological data provided by a ground station to monitor the evapotranspiration (ET) of the system. An eddy covariance tower (38°12' N; 4°17' W, 736 m a.s.l), equipped with instruments to measure all the components of the energy balance and 1 km of homogeneous fetch in the predominant wind

  20. Characterizing the dependence of vegetation model parameters on crop structure, incidence angle, and polarization at L-band

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wigneron, J-P.; Pardé, M.; Waldteufel, P.

    2004-01-01

    To retrieve soil moisture over vegetation-covered areas from microwave radiometry, it is necessary to account for vegetation effects. At L-band, many retrieval approaches are based on a simple model that relies on two vegetation parameters: the optical depth (tau) and the single-scattering albedo......, wheat, grass, and alfalfa) based on L-band experimental datasets. The results should be useful for developing more accurate forward modeling and retrieval methods over mixed pixels including a variety of vegetation types....

  1. Broad-Scale Environmental Conditions Responsible for Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Casady, Grant M.; Marsh, Stuart E.

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem response to disturbance is influenced by environmental conditions at a number of scales. Changes in climate have altered fire regimes across the western United States, and have also likely altered spatio-temporal patterns of post-fire vegetation regeneration. Fire occurrence data and a vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were used to monitor post-fire vegetation from 1989 to 2007. We first investigated differences in post-fi...

  2. Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China); An, Ru [School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Xikang Road 129, Nanjing, 210098 (China); Li, Jianlong, E-mail: lijianlongnju@163.com [School of Life Science, Nanjing University, Xianlin Road 163, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210046 (China)

    2016-09-01

    The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −1}. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2} and − 0.08 g cm{sup −2} yr{sup −2}, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation

  3. Vegetation dynamics and its driving forces from climate change and human activities in the Three-River Source Region, China from 1982 to 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ying; Zhang, Chaobin; Wang, Zhaoqi; Chen, Yizhao; Gang, Chengcheng; An, Ru; Li, Jianlong

    2016-01-01

    The Three-River Source Region (TRSR), a region with key importance to the ecological security of China, has undergone climate changes and a shift in human activities driven by a series of ecological restoration projects in recent decades. To reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation dynamics and calculate the contributions of driving factors in the TRSR across different periods from 1982 to 2012, net primary productivity (NPP) estimated using the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach model was used to assess the status of vegetation. The actual effects of different climatic variation trends on interannual variation in NPP were analyzed. Furthermore, the relationships of NPP with different climate factors and human activities were analyzed quantitatively. Results showed the following: from 1982 to 2012, the average NPP in the study area was 187.37 g cm"−"2 yr"−"1. The average NPP exhibited a fluctuation but presented a generally increasing trend over the 31-year study period, with an increase rate of 1.31 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2. During the entire study period, the average contributions of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation to NPP interannual variation over the entire region were 0.58, 0.73, and 0.09 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. Radiation was the climate factor with the greatest influence on NPP interannual variation. The factor that restricted NPP increase changed from temperature and radiation to precipitation. The average contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP interannual variation were 1.40 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2 and − 0.08 g cm"−"2 yr"−"2, respectively. From 1982 to 2000, the general climate conditions were favorable to vegetation recovery, whereas human activities had a weaker negative impact on vegetation growth. From 2001 to 2012, climate conditions began to have a negative impact on vegetation growth, whereas human activities made a favorable impact on vegetation recovery. - Highlights: • Partitioned the

  4. Vulnerability and Resilience of Temperate Forest Landscapes to Broad-Scale Deforestation in Response to Changing Fire Regimes and Altered Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tepley, A. J.; Veblen, T. T.; Perry, G.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

    2015-12-01

    In the face of on-going climatic warming and land-use change, there is growing concern that temperate forest landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to the fire regime or altered post-fire vegetation dynamics could lead to extensive conversion to shrublands or savannas. To evaluate vulnerability and resilience to such conversion, we develop a simple model based on three factors we hypothesize to be key in predicting temperate forest responses to changing fire regimes: (1) the hazard rate (i.e., the probability of burning in the next year given the time since the last fire) in closed-canopy forests, (2) the hazard rate for recently-burned, open-canopy vegetation, and (3) the time to redevelop canopy closure following fire. We generate a response surface representing the proportions of the landscape potentially supporting closed-canopy forest and non-forest vegetation under nearly all combinations of these three factors. We then place real landscapes on this response surface to assess the type and magnitude of changes to the fire regime that would drive extensive forest loss. We show that the deforestation of much of New Zealand that followed initial human colonization and the introduction of a new ignition source ca. 750 years ago was essentially inevitable due to the slow rate of forest recovery after fire and the high flammability of post-fire vegetation. In North America's Pacific Northwest, by contrast, a predominantly forested landscape persisted despite two periods of widespread burning in the recent past due in large part to faster post-fire forest recovery and less pronounced differences in flammability between forests and the post-fire vegetation. We also assess the factors that could drive extensive deforestation in other regions to identify where management could reduce this potential and to guide field and modeling work to better understand the responses and ecological feedbacks to changing fire regimes.

  5. Development of atmosphere-soil-vegetation model for investigation of radioactive materials transport in terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Zhang, Leiming; Held, Andreas; Serca, Dominique; Klemm, Otto

    2010-01-01

    In order to investigate the transport of radionuclides in the terrestrial biosphere we have developed a one-dimensional numerical model named SOLVEG that predicts the transfer of water, heat, and gaseous and particulate matters in atmosphere-soil-vegetation system. The SOLVEG represents atmosphere, soil, and vegetation as an aggregation of several layers. Basic equations used in the model are solved using the finite difference method. Most of predicted variables are interrelated with the source/sink terms of momentum, water, heat, gases, and particles based on mathematically described biophysical processes in atmosphere, soil and vegetation. The SOLVEG can estimate dry, wet and fog deposition of gaseous and particulate matters at each canopy layer. Performance tests of the SOLVEG with several observational sites were carried out. The SOLVEG predicted the observed temporal changes in water vapor, CO 2 , and ozone fluxes over vegetated surfaces. The SOLVEG also reproduced measured fluxes of fog droplets and of fine aerosols over the forest. (author)

  6. [Vegetation spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics based on NDVI time series trajectories in grassland opencast coal mining].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Duo; Wang, Cang Jiao; Mu, Shou Guo; Zhao, Hua

    2017-06-18

    The spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vegetation in mining area are still unclear. This study utilized time series trajectory segmentation algorithm to fit Landsat NDVI time series which generated from fusion images at the most prosperous period of growth based on ESTARFM algorithm. Combining with the shape features of the fitted trajectory, this paper extracted five vegetation dynamic patterns including pre-disturbance type, continuous disturbance type, stabilization after disturbance type, stabilization between disturbance and recovery type, and recovery after disturbance type. The result indicated that recovery after disturbance type was the dominant vegetation change pattern among the five types of vegetation dynamic pattern, which accounted for 55.2% of the total number of pixels. The follows were stabilization after disturbance type and continuous disturbance type, accounting for 25.6% and 11.0%, respectively. The pre-disturbance type and stabilization between disturbance and recovery type accounted for 3.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Vegetation disturbance mainly occurred from 2004 to 2009 in Shengli mining area. The onset time of stable state was 2008 and the spatial locations mainlydistributed in open-pit stope and waste dump. The reco-very state mainly started since the year of 2008 and 2010, while the areas were small and mainly distributed at the periphery of open-pit stope and waste dump. Duration of disturbance was mainly 1 year. The duration of stable period usually sustained 7 years. The duration of recovery state of the type of stabilization between disturbances continued 2 to 5 years, while the type of recovery after disturbance often sustained 8 years.

  7. Assessing Vegetation Cover Dynamics Induced by Policy-Driven Ecological Restoration and Implication to Soil Erosion in Southern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jien Zhang

    Full Text Available In the aftermath of the severe droughts and floods at the end of the 20th century, the Chinese government launched several ecological restoration projects, including the Natural Forest Protection Program in 1998 and the Grain-for-Green Program in 1999, to promote afforestation and reforestation to reduce surface runoff and consequent soil erosion nationwide. However, it is still unclear how vegetation has changed in southern China since the launch of these programs. In this study, we used the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI to analyze the vegetation cover dynamics in southern China from 2000 to 2009 and evaluate the resulting effects of controlling soil erosion. Our observations indicate that 5.3% of the study area significantly increased and 0.98% significantly decreased in EVI value (p < 0.05. The spring EVI had largest increase in space. The conversions of croplands on steep slopes to forests resulting from national policies led to significant increases in EVI. The increase in EVI was not driven by annual average temperature and annual precipitation. By referencing ecological restoration statistical data and field observations, we showed that ecological restoration programs significantly improved vegetation cover in southern China. Increase in the area of farmland-converted forestlands has reduced soil erosion based upon monitoring sediment yields at hydrologic stations in the Yangtze River. This study displays the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth since the beginning of the 21st century in southern China and highlights the important role of China's afforestation program.

  8. System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2008-01-01

    /methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

  9. Climate and vegetation in a semi-arid savanna: Development of a climate–vegetation response model linking plant metabolic performance to climate and the effects on forage availability for large herbivores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin H. Seydack

    2012-02-01

    Developing the climate–vegetation response model involved three main components, namely (1 defining indicators of forage availability to herbivores (nitrogen productivity, nitrogen quality, carbon-nutrient quality, (2 identifying herbivore species guilds of similar nutritional requirements with respect to these indicators [bulk feeders with tolerance to fibrous herbage (buffalo, waterbuck, bulk feeders with preference for high nitrogen quality forage (short grass preference grazers: blue wildebeest and zebra and selective feeders where dietary items of relatively high carbon-nutrient quality represented key forage resources (selective grazers: sable antelope, roan antelope, tsessebe, eland] and (3 developing a process model where the expected effects of plant metabolic responses to climate on key forage resources were made explicit. According to the climate–vegetation response model both shorter-term transient temperature acclimation pulses and longer-term shifts in plant metabolic functionality settings were predicted to have occurred in response to temperature trends over the past century. These temperature acclimation responses were expected to have resulted in transient pulses of increased forage availability (increased nitrogen- and carbon-nutrient quality, as well as the progressive long-term decline of the carbon-nutrient quality of forage. Conservation implications: The climate–vegetation response model represents a research framework for further studies contributing towards the enhanced understanding of landscape-scale functioning of savanna systems with reference to the interplay between climate, vegetation and herbivore population dynamics. Gains in such understanding can support sound conservation management.

  10. Finding the food-fuel balance. Supply and demand dynamics in global vegetable oil markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savanti, P.

    2012-10-15

    Demand for vegetable oils for food and biofuel use is expected to increase by an additional 23 million tonnes by 2016; however supply is expected to struggle to keep up with this demand, according to this Rabobank report. Vegetable oil stocks have reached a 38 year low this year due in large part to constraints such as land availability and adverse weather.

  11. Early to Middle Eocene vegetation dynamics at the Wilkes Land Margin (Antarctica)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Contreras, L.; Pross, J.; Bijl, P.K.; Koutsodendris, A.; Raine, J.I.; van de Schootbrugge, B.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2013-01-01

    The early Eocene epoch was characterized by extreme global warmth, which in terrestrial settings was characterized by an expansion of near-tropical vegetation belts into the high latitudes. During the middle to late Eocene, global cooling caused the retreat of tropical vegetation to lower latitudes.

  12. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  13. Modeling Linkages Between Effective Impervious Surface and Urban Vegetation Productivity in Semi-arid Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, C. A.; Tague, C.

    2010-12-01

    With a majority of the world's population now living in urban areas, the role of vegetation in urban ecosystems warrants increased attention. We address the question of how the fine scale (significantly impact the productivity of vegetation and uptake of C and N. To gain insight into how landscape features influence vegetation productivity, we use a coupled ecohydrogic model to estimate impacts of the amount and arrangement of impervious surfaces on vegetation water use. We use the model to explore how concepts from research in natural semi-arid ecosystems can be applied in the urban context. Ecological research in semi-arid ecosystems has shown that the arrangement of vegetated and bare surfaces plays a key role in regulating both runoff and ecosystem water use and productivity. Systems that include a mixture of bare and vegetated surfaces, for example, tend to show less runoff and more productivity than those with more homogeneous cover. In some instances, patchiness of bare and vegetated surfaces is more important than total vegetated area in determining rates of runoff and vegetation use of rainfall. In an urban context, impervious surfaces can be viewed as analogous to the bare surfaces present in undeveloped ecosystems. We consider not only the total impervious area (TIA), but also the effect of impervious area with a direct hydrologic connection to the stream network, effective impervious area (EIA). While increases in total impervious area (TIA) have been widely shown to impact catchment hydrology, the role of effective impervious area (EIA) has been less extensively studied. A consensus is emerging from the literature that EIA is as important or even more important than TIA as an indicator of catchment response to urbanization. Ecohydrologic models offer a tool to quantify the role of EIA on water availability and plant productivity and demonstrate the potential of urban areas to act as C or N sinks (and minimize the impacts such as increased storm runoff

  14. Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

  15. Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Miriam C.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Willard, Debra A.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m−2 yr−1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.

  16. Bacterial community dynamics and product distribution during pH-adjusted fermentation of vegetable wastes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, N-F; Lü, F; Shao, L-M; Godon, J-J; He, P-J

    2007-10-01

    To estimate the effect of pH on the structures of bacterial community during fermentation of vegetable wastes and to investigate the relationship between bacterial community dynamics and product distribution. The bacterial communities in five batch tests controlled at different pH values [uncontrolled (about pH 4), 5, 6, 7 and 8] were monitored by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP). The two fingerprinting methods provided consistent results and principal component analysis indicated a close similarity of bacterial community at pH 7 and 8 in addition to those at pH 4-6. This clustering also corresponded to dominant metabolic pathway. Thus, pH 7-8 shifted from alcohol-forming to acid-forming, especially butyric acid, whereas both alcohol-forming and acid-forming dominated at pH 5-6, and at pH 4, fermentation was inhibited. Shannon-weaver index was calculated to analyse the DGGE profiles, which revealed that the bacterial diversities at pH 7 and 8 were the highest while those at pH 5 and 4 (uncontrolled) were the lowest. According to sequencing results of the bands excised from DGGE gels, lactic acid bacteria and Clostridium sp. were predominant at all pH values, but varieties in species were observed as pH changed and time prolonged. The bacterial community during fermentation was materially influenced by pH and the diverse product distribution was related to the shift of different bacterial population. The study reveals that the impact of pH on fermentation product distribution is implemented primarily by changes of bacterial community. It also provides information about the comparison of two fingerprinting methods, DGGE and SSCP.

  17. Sediment Retention Dynamics and Vegetation Along Three Tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, K.; Ross, K.; Hupp, C.; Alexander, L.; Alexander, L.

    2001-12-01

    Coastal Plain riparian wetlands in the Mid-Atlantic United States are the last place for sediment and contaminant storage before reaching critical estuarine and marine environments. The deteriorating health of the Chesapeake Bay has been attributed in part to elevated sediment loads. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of channelization and urbanization on sediment deposition and geomorphic processes along the Pocomoke and Chickahominy Rivers and Dragon Run, three Coastal Plain tributaries. Floodplain microtopography was surveyed in 100 x 100 m grids at three characteristic reaches along each river and woody vegetation analyses were conducted. Floodplain suspended sediment concentrations and short and long-term sedimentation rates were estimated at each reach using single stage sediment sampler arrays, clay pads and dendrogeomorphic techniques, respectively. Site hydroperiod and flow characteristics were determined from USGS gaging station records, floodplain water level recorders, and field observations. Channelized floodplain reaches along the Pocomoke River are flooded less frequently, have lower mineral sedimentation rates (2 mm/yr to 6 mm/yr) and woody species diversity than the unchannelized reaches. Along the Chickahominy River, floodplain wetlands close to urban centers are flooded more frequently, but have shorter hydroperiods (3.5 days/yr compared to more than 45 days/yr), lower sedimentation rates (1.8 mm/yr to 6.8 mm/yr), and lower woody species diversity (0.51 to 1.95 on the Shannon-Weiner diversity index) than floodplains further downstream. Suspended sediment delivery and deposition rates are significantly influenced by floodplain hydroperiod duration and channel-floodplain connectivity. These results suggest that understanding floodplain sediment dynamics and geomorphic processes with respect to dominant watershed landuse patterns is critical for effective water quality management and restoration efforts.

  18. Analysis of interactions between channel dynamics and vegetation development following damming: example of the Old Rhine downstream of Kembs (1949-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, F.; Béraud, C.; Piégay, H.; Schmitt, L.; Rollet, A.; Johnstone, K.; Hoenen, D.; Béal, D.

    2010-12-01

    1D hydromorphodynamical simulations. Indeed, numerical modelling is able to calculate the bed shear stress over the critical shear stress ratio for different grain sizes according to the type of vegetation observed and the magnitude and duration of floods occurred. Finally, both GIS study and 1D modelling are complementary revealing the channel and vegetation evolution and underlined the significant impact of vegetation development on the bed dynamics over decades.

  19. Impact of understory vegetation on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamic in aerially seeded Pinus massoniana plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Ping; Zhao, Fang; Ning, Jinkui; Ouyang, Xunzhi; Zang, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Understory vegetation plays a vital role in regulating soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) characteristics due to differences in plant functional traits. Different understory vegetation types have been reported following aerial seeding. While aerial seeding is common in areas with serious soil erosion, few studies have been conducted to investigate changes in soil C and N cycling as affected by understory vegetation in aerially seeded plantations. Here, we studied soil C and N characteristics under two naturally formed understory vegetation types (Dicranopteris and graminoid) in aerially seeded Pinus massoniana Lamb plantations. Across the two studied understory vegetation types, soil organic C was significantly correlated with all measured soil N variables, including total N, available N, microbial biomass N and water-soluble organic N, while microbial biomass C was correlated with all measured variables except soil organic C. Dicranopteris and graminoid differed in their effects on soil C and N process. Except water-soluble organic C, all the other C and N variables were higher in soils with graminoids. The higher levels of soil organic C, microbial biomass C, total N, available N, microbial biomass N and water-soluble organic N were consistent with the higher litter and root quality (C/N) of graminoid vegetation compared to Dicranopteris. Changes in soil C and N cycles might be impacted by understory vegetation types via differences in litter or root quality. PMID:29377926

  20. Characterizing and modeling citation dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Ho Eom

    Full Text Available Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well.

  1. Vegetation Dynamics in the Upper Guinean Forest Region of West Africa from 2001 to 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihua Liu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Upper Guinea Forest (UGF region of West Africa is one of the most climatically marginal and human-impacted tropical forest regions in the world. Research on the patterns and drivers of vegetation change is critical for developing strategies to sustain ecosystem services in the region and to understand how climate and land use change will affect other tropical forests around the globe. We compared six spectral indices calculated from the 2001–2015 MODIS optical-infrared reflectance data with manually-interpreted measurements of woody vegetation cover from high resolution imagery. The tasseled cap wetness (TCW index was found to have the strongest association with woody vegetation cover, whereas greenness indices, such as the enhanced vegetation index (EVI, had relatively weak associations with woody cover. Trends in woody vegetation cover measured with the TCW index were analyzed using Mann–Kendall statistics and were contrasted with trends in vegetation greenness measured with EVI. In the drier West Sudanian Savanna and Guinean Forest-Savanna Mosaic ecoregions, EVI trends were primarily positive, and TCW trends were primarily negative, suggesting that woody vegetation cover was decreasing, while herbaceous vegetation cover is increasing. In the wettest tropical forests in the Western Guinean Lowland Forest ecoregion, declining trends in both TCW and EVI were indicative of widespread forest degradation resulting from human activities. Across all ecoregions, declines in woody cover were less prevalent in protected areas where human activities were restricted. Multiple lines of evidence suggested that human land use and resource extraction, rather than climate trends or short-term climatic anomalies, were the predominant drivers of recent vegetation change in the UGF region of West Africa.

  2. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  3. Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

    2016-03-11

    Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

  4. Late Quaternary sedimentary dynamics in Western Amazonia: Implications for the origin of open vegetation/forest contrasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossetti, D. F.; Bertani, T. C.; Zani, H.; Cremon, E. H.; Hayakawa, E. H.

    2012-12-01

    depositional dynamics through time, a process that had an immediate effect on the development of large open vegetation patches intermingled with the Amazonian rainforest.

  5. Modeling dynamics of western juniper under climate change in a semiarid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, R.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

    2013-12-01

    Modeling future vegetation dynamics in response to climate change and disturbances such as fire relies heavily on model parameterization. Fine-scale field-based measurements can provide the necessary parameters for constraining models at a larger scale. But the time- and labor-intensive nature of field-based data collection leads to sparse sampling and significant spatial uncertainties in retrieved parameters. In this study we quantify the fine-scale carbon dynamics and uncertainty of juniper woodland in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southern Idaho, which is a proposed critical zone observatory (CZO) site for soil carbon processes. We leverage field-measured vegetation data along with airborne lidar and timeseries Landsat imagery to initialize a state-and-transition model (VDDT) and a process-based fire-model (FlamMap) to examine the vegetation dynamics in response to stochastic fire events and climate change. We utilize recently developed and novel techniques to measure biomass and canopy characteristics of western juniper at the individual tree scale using terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques in RCEW. These fine-scale data are upscaled across the watershed for the VDDT and FlamMap models. The results will immediately improve our understanding of fine-scale dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes of woody vegetation in a semi-arid ecosystem. Moreover, quantification of uncertainty will also provide a basis for generating ensembles of spatially-explicit alternative scenarios to guide future land management decisions in the region.

  6. Evaluation of a Linear Mixing Model to Retrieve Soil and Vegetation Temperatures of Land Targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, J.; Jia, L.; Cui, Y.; Zhou, J.; Menenti, M.

    2014-01-01

    A simple linear mixing model of heterogeneous soil-vegetation system and retrieval of component temperatures from directional remote sensing measurements by inverting this model is evaluated in this paper using observations by a thermal camera. The thermal camera was used to obtain multi-angular TIR

  7. Models of vegetation change for landscape planning: a comparison of FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. M. Barrett

    2001-01-01

    Landscape assessment and planning often depend on the ability to predict change of vegetation. This report compares four modeling systems (FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT) that can be used to understand changes resulting from succession, natural disturbance, and management activities. The four models may be useful for regional or local assessments in National Forest...

  8. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2003-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

  9. Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.

    2008-03-31

    Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.

  10. Measuring the pulse of urban green infrastructure: vegetation dynamics across residential landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vegetation can be an important component of urban green infrastructure. Its structure is a complex result of the socio-ecological milieu and management decisions, and it can influence numerous ecohydrological processes such as stormwater interception and evapotranspiration. Despi...

  11. To the analysis of the theory of mathematical model of hydrodynamics of a bulk layer of a mix of vegetative materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Bikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of research work on finding out the interdependence between the dynamic separation of the working apparatus (machine, statistic separation and the degree of filling the apparatus (machine. The final mathematic model of calculating separation - an important hydrodynamic parameter of a layer of vegetable material while extragent is being filtrated through it. The authors worked out a universal method of defining hydrodynamic characteristics of a layer of material which can be applied to any vegetable materials and their mixtures worked up as required.

  12. A Forward GPS Multipath Simulator Based on the Vegetation Radiative Transfer Equation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xuerui; Jin, Shuanggen; Xia, Junming

    2017-06-05

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have been widely used in navigation, positioning and timing. Nowadays, the multipath errors may be re-utilized for the remote sensing of geophysical parameters (soil moisture, vegetation and snow depth), i.e., GPS-Multipath Reflectometry (GPS-MR). However, bistatic scattering properties and the relation between GPS observables and geophysical parameters are not clear, e.g., vegetation. In this paper, a new element on bistatic scattering properties of vegetation is incorporated into the traditional GPS-MR model. This new element is the first-order radiative transfer equation model. The new forward GPS multipath simulator is able to explicitly link the vegetation parameters with GPS multipath observables (signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR), code pseudorange and carrier phase observables). The trunk layer and its corresponding scattering mechanisms are ignored since GPS-MR is not suitable for high forest monitoring due to the coherence of direct and reflected signals. Based on this new model, the developed simulator can present how the GPS signals (L1 and L2 carrier frequencies, C/A, P(Y) and L2C modulations) are transmitted (scattered and absorbed) through vegetation medium and received by GPS receivers. Simulation results show that the wheat will decrease the amplitudes of GPS multipath observables (SNR, phase and code), if we increase the vegetation moisture contents or the scatters sizes (stem or leaf). Although the Specular-Ground component dominates the total specular scattering, vegetation covered ground soil moisture has almost no effects on the final multipath signatures. Our simulated results are consistent with previous results for environmental parameter detections by GPS-MR.

  13. Vegetation, climate and fire-dynamics in East Africa inferred from the Maundi crater pollen record from Mt Kilimanjaro during the last glacial-interglacial cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüler, Lisa; Hemp, Andreas; Zech, Wolfgang; Behling, Hermann

    2012-04-01

    The pollen, charcoal and sedimentological record from the Maundi crater, located at 2780 m elevation on the south-eastern slope of Mt Kilimanjaro, is one of the longest terrestrial records in equatorial East Africa, giving an interesting insight into the vegetation and climate dynamics back to the early last Glacial period. Our sediment record has a reliable chronology until 42 ka BP. An extrapolation of the age-depth model, as well as matching with other palaeo-records from tropical East Africa, suggest a total age of about 90 ka BP at the bottom of the record. During the last Glacial the distribution as well as the composition of the vegetation belts classified as colline savanna, submontane woodland, montane forest, ericaceous belt, and alpine vegetation changed. The early last Glacial is characterized by high amounts of Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen suggesting a climatically dry but stable phase. Based on the absence of pollen grains in samples deposited around 70 ka BP, we assume the occurrence of distinct drought periods. During the pre-LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) a higher taxa diversity of the ericaceous and montane zone is recorded and suggests a spread of forest and shrub vegetation, thus indicating a more humid period. The taxa diversity increases steadily during the recorded time span. The decent of vegetation zones indicate dry and cold conditions during the LGM and seem to have been detrimental for many taxa, especially those of the forest vegetation; however, the early last Glacial seems to have been markedly drier than the LGM. The reappearance of most of the taxa (most importantly Alchemilla, Araliaceae, Dodonea, Hagenia, Ilex, Myrsine, Moraceae, Piperaceae) during the deglacial and Holocene period suggest a shift into humid conditions. An increase in ferns and the decrease in grasses during the Holocene also indicate increasing humidity. Fire played an important role in controlling the development and elevation of the ericaceous zone and the tree

  14. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, T. (Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States))

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.

  15. VEGETATION COVERAGE AND IMPERVIOUS SURFACE AREA ESTIMATED BASED ON THE ESTARFM MODEL AND REMOTE SENSING MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Hu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM, the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1 ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2 The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

  16. Vegetation Coverage and Impervious Surface Area Estimated Based on the Estarfm Model and Remote Sensing Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Rongming; Wang, Shu; Guo, Jiao; Guo, Liankun

    2018-04-01

    Impervious surface area and vegetation coverage are important biophysical indicators of urban surface features which can be derived from medium-resolution images. However, remote sensing data obtained by a single sensor are easily affected by many factors such as weather conditions, and the spatial and temporal resolution can not meet the needs for soil erosion estimation. Therefore, the integrated multi-source remote sensing data are needed to carry out high spatio-temporal resolution vegetation coverage estimation. Two spatial and temporal vegetation coverage data and impervious data were obtained from MODIS and Landsat 8 remote sensing images. Based on the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM), the vegetation coverage data of two scales were fused and the data of vegetation coverage fusion (ESTARFM FVC) and impervious layer with high spatiotemporal resolution (30 m, 8 day) were obtained. On this basis, the spatial variability of the seepage-free surface and the vegetation cover landscape in the study area was measured by means of statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results showed that: 1) ESTARFM FVC and impermeable surface have higher accuracy and can characterize the characteristics of the biophysical components covered by the earth's surface; 2) The average impervious surface proportion and the spatial configuration of each area are different, which are affected by natural conditions and urbanization. In the urban area of Xi'an, which has typical characteristics of spontaneous urbanization, landscapes are fragmented and have less spatial dependence.

  17. Assessing Vegetation Cover Dynamics Induced by Policy-Driven Ecological Restoration and Implication to Soil Erosion in Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jien; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2015-01-01

    In the aftermath of the severe droughts and floods at the end of the 20th century, the Chinese government launched several ecological restoration projects, including the Natural Forest Protection Program in 1998 and the Grain-for-Green Program in 1999, to promote afforestation and reforestation to reduce surface runoff and consequent soil erosion nationwide. However, it is still unclear how vegetation has changed in southern China since the launch of these programs. In this study, we used the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) to analyze the vegetation cover dynamics in southern China from 2000 to 2009 and evaluate the resulting effects of controlling soil erosion. Our observations indicate that 5.3% of the study area significantly increased and 0.98% significantly decreased in EVI value (p soil erosion based upon monitoring sediment yields at hydrologic stations in the Yangtze River. This study displays the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth since the beginning of the 21st century in southern China and highlights the important role of China's afforestation program.

  18. Large-scale assessment of soil erosion in Africa: satellites help to jointly account for dynamic rainfall and vegetation cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrieling, Anton; Hoedjes, Joost C. B.; van der Velde, Marijn

    2015-04-01

    Efforts to map and monitor soil erosion need to account for the erratic nature of the soil erosion process. Soil erosion by water occurs on sloped terrain when erosive rainfall and consequent surface runoff impact soils that are not well-protected by vegetation or other soil protective measures. Both rainfall erosivity and vegetation cover are highly variable through space and time. Due to data paucity and the relative ease of spatially overlaying geographical data layers into existing models like USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation), many studies and mapping efforts merely use average annual values for erosivity and vegetation cover as input. We first show that rainfall erosivity can be estimated from satellite precipitation data. We obtained average annual erosivity estimates from 15 yr of 3-hourly TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data (1998-2012) using intensity-erosivity relationships. Our estimates showed a positive correlation (r = 0.84) with long-term annual erosivity values of 37 stations obtained from literature. Using these TMPA erosivity retrievals, we demonstrate the large interannual variability, with maximum annual erosivity often exceeding two to three times the mean value, especially in semi-arid areas. We then calculate erosivity at a 10-daily time-step and combine this with vegetation cover development for selected locations in Africa using NDVI - normalized difference vegetation index - time series from SPOT VEGETATION. Although we do not integrate the data at this point, the joint analysis of both variables stresses the need for joint accounting for erosivity and vegetation cover for large-scale erosion assessment and monitoring.

  19. A comparison of two different approaches for mapping potential ozone damage to vegetation. A model study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, D.; Ashmore, M.R.; Emberson, L.; Tuovinen, J.-P.

    2007-01-01

    Two very different types of approaches are currently in use today for indicating risk of ozone damage to vegetation in Europe. One approach is the so-called AOTX (accumulated exposure over threshold of X ppb) index, which is based upon ozone concentrations only. The second type of approach entails an estimate of the amount of ozone entering via the stomates of vegetation, the AFstY approach (accumulated stomatal flux over threshold of Y nmol m -2 s -1 ). The EMEP chemical transport model is used to map these different indicators of ozone damage across Europe, for two illustrative vegetation types, wheat and beech forests. The results show that exceedences of critical levels for either type of indicator are widespread, but that the indicators give very different spatial patterns across Europe. Model simulations for year 2020 scenarios suggest reductions in risks of vegetation damage whichever indicator is used, but suggest that AOT40 is much more sensitive to emission control than AFstY values. - Model calculations of AOT40 and AFstY show very different spatial variations in the risks of ozone damage to vegetation

  20. [Soil respiration dynamics and its controlling factors of typical vegetation communities on meadow steppes in the western Songnen Plain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming; Liu, Xing-Tu; Li, Xiu-Jun; Zhang, Ji-Tao; Wang, Guo-Dong; Lu, Xin-Rui; Li, Xiao-Yu

    2014-01-01

    In order to accurately explore the soil respiration dynamics and its controlling factors of typical vegetation types in the western Songnen Plain, soil respiration rates of Chloris virgata, Puccinellia distans, Phragmites australis and Leymus chinensis communities were measured. The results showed that the diurnal curves of soil respiration rates of the four vegetation communities had simple peak values, which appeared at 11:00-15:00, and the valley values occurred at 21:00-1:00 or 3:00-5:00. The seasonal dynamic patterns of their soil respiration rates were similar, with the maximum (3.21-4.84 micromol CO2 x m(-2) x s(-1)) occurring in July and August and the minimum (0.46-1.51 micromol CO2 x m(-2) x s(-1)) in October. The soil respiration rates of the four vegetation communities had significant exponential correlations with ambient air temperature and soil temperature. Soil moisture, however, only played an important role in affecting the soil respiration rate of C. virgata community while air humidity near the soil surface was significantly correlated with the soil respiration rates of P. australis and L. chinensis communities. The soil salt contents seriously constrained the CO2 dioxide emission, and the soil pH, electrical conductivity (EC), exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) could explain 87%-91% spatial variations of the soil respiration rate.

  1. Genome Dynamics of Hybrid Saccharomyces cerevisiae During Vegetative and Meiotic Divisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhishek Dutta

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Mutation and recombination are the major sources of genetic diversity in all organisms. In the baker’s yeast, all mutation rate estimates are in homozygous background. We determined the extent of genetic change through mutation and loss of heterozygosity (LOH in a heterozygous Saccharomyces cerevisiae genome during successive vegetative and meiotic divisions. We measured genome-wide LOH and base mutation rates during vegetative and meiotic divisions in a hybrid (S288c/YJM789 S. cerevisiae strain. The S288c/YJM789 hybrid showed nearly complete reduction in heterozygosity within 31 generations of meioses and improved spore viability. LOH in the meiotic lines was driven primarily by the mating of spores within the tetrad. The S288c/YJM789 hybrid lines propagated vegetatively for the same duration as the meiotic lines, showed variable LOH (from 2 to 3% and up to 35%. Two of the vegetative lines with extensive LOH showed frequent and large internal LOH tracts that suggest a high frequency of recombination repair. These results suggest significant LOH can occur in the S288c/YJM789 hybrid during vegetative propagation presumably due to return to growth events. The average base substitution rates for the vegetative lines (1.82 × 10−10 per base per division and the meiotic lines (1.22 × 10−10 per base per division are the first genome-wide mutation rate estimates for a hybrid yeast. This study therefore provides a novel context for the analysis of mutation rates (especially in the context of detecting LOH during vegetative divisions, compared to previous mutation accumulation studies in yeast that used homozygous backgrounds.

  2. THEORETICAL MODELLING STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MULTI-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE VEGETATION INDEX AND VEGETATION PROPERTIES (OPTICAL DEPTH AND SINGLE SCATTERING ALBEDO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Talebi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a theoretical study of derivation Microwave Vegetation Indices (MVIs in different pairs of frequencies using two methods. In the first method calculating MVI in different frequencies based on Matrix Doubling Model (to take in to account multi scattering effects has been done and analyzed in various soil properties. The second method was based on MVI theoretical basis and its independency to underlying soil surface signals. Comparing the results from two methods with vegetation properties (single scattering albedo and optical depth indicated partial correlation between MVI from first method and optical depth, and full correlation between MVI from second method and vegetation properties. The second method to derive MVI can be used widely in global microwave vegetation monitoring.

  3. Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

    1980-01-01

    Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

  4. Dynamic Airspace Managment - Models and Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Peng; Geng, Rui

    2010-01-01

    This chapter investigates the models and algorithms for implementing the concept of Dynamic Airspace Management. Three models are discussed. First two models are about how to use or adjust air route dynamically in order to speed up air traffic flow and reduce delay. The third model gives a way to dynamically generate the optimal sector configuration for an air traffic control center to both balance the controller’s workload and save control resources. The first model, called the Dynami...

  5. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

    2017-08-01

    The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over

  6. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  7. System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

  8. A Test of the Optimality Approach to Modelling Canopy gas Exchange by Natural Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schymanski, S. J.; Sivapalan, M.; Roderick, M. L.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L. B.

    2005-12-01

    Natural vegetation has co-evolved with its environment over a long period of time and natural selection has led to a species composition that is most suited for the given conditions. Part of this adaptation is the vegetation's water use strategy, which determines the amount and timing of water extraction from the soil. Knowing that water extraction by vegetation often accounts for over 90% of the annual water balance in some places, we need to understand its controls if we want to properly model the hydrologic cycle. Water extraction by roots is driven by transpiration from the canopy, which in turn is an inevitable consequence of CO2 uptake for photosynthesis. Photosynthesis provides plants with their main building material, carbohydrates, and with the energy necessary to thrive and prosper in their environment. Therefore we expect that natural vegetation would have evolved an optimal water use strategy to maximise its `net carbon profit' (the difference between carbon acquired by photosynthesis and carbon spent on maintenance of the organs involved in its uptake). Based on this hypothesis and on an ecophysiological gas exchange and photosynthesis model (Cowan and Farquhar 1977; von Caemmerer 2000), we model the optimal vegetation for a site in Howard Springs (N.T., Australia) and compare the modelled fluxes with measurements by Beringer, Hutley et al. (2003). The comparison gives insights into theoretical and real controls on transpiration and photosynthesis and tests the optimality approach to modelling gas exchange of natural vegetation with unknown properties. The main advantage of the optimality approach is that no assumptions about the particular vegetation on a site are needed, which makes it very powerful for predicting vegetation response to long-term climate- or land use change. Literature: Beringer, J., L. B. Hutley, et al. (2003). "Fire impacts on surface heat, moisture and carbon fluxes from a tropical savanna in northern Australia." International

  9. Relationships between vegetation dynamics and hydroclimatic drivers in the northern high-latitude uplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Tetzlaff, D.; Buttle, J. M.; Carey, S. K.; Laudon, H.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.; Spence, C.

    2015-12-01

    IPCC projections show that climate warming will be particularly high in northern high-latitude regions, which has profound ecohydrological implications: a small rise of temperature may result in lower water availability in summer due to less rainfall and more evapotranspiration, increase flooding risks by accelerating melting rates in spring, and more rain rather than snow in winter, etc. These impacts will affect vegetation communities by altering timing of the spring "green-up" and fall "senescence". Change in vegetation water use will feedback to atmospheric and hydrological cycles. Here, we report results from the PLATO "Plant-water interlinkages in northern uplands - mediation of climate change?" project where we investigate water uptake by plants and consequent water availability in northern regions along a cross-regional climate gradient to understand future responses to change in high-latitude uplands. Six sites in Sweden (Krycklan), Canada (Wolf Creek; Baker Creek; Dorset), Scotland (Girnock) and the USA (Dry Creek) span moisture and energy gradients found at high-latitudes. We are presenting preliminary results of vegetation phenology changes from 2000 to 2014 by analysing remote sensing vegetation indices. The relationship between vegetation phenology and climatic drivers (temperature and precipitation) is also investigated.

  10. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  11. Hydration dynamics near a model protein surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, Daniela; Hura, Greg; Head-Gordon, Teresa

    2003-01-01

    The evolution of water dynamics from dilute to very high concentration solutions of a prototypical hydrophobic amino acid with its polar backbone, N-acetyl-leucine-methylamide (NALMA), is studied by quasi-elastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation for both the completely deuterated and completely hydrogenated leucine monomer. We observe several unexpected features in the dynamics of these biological solutions under ambient conditions. The NALMA dynamics shows evidence of de Gennes narrowing, an indication of coherent long timescale structural relaxation dynamics. The translational water dynamics are analyzed in a first approximation with a jump diffusion model. At the highest solute concentrations, the hydration water dynamics is significantly suppressed and characterized by a long residential time and a slow diffusion coefficient. The analysis of the more dilute concentration solutions takes into account the results of the 2.0M solution as a model of the first hydration shell. Subtracting the first hydration layer based on the 2.0M spectra, the translational diffusion dynamics is still suppressed, although the rotational relaxation time and residential time are converged to bulk-water values. Molecular dynamics analysis shows spatially heterogeneous dynamics at high concentration that becomes homogeneous at more dilute concentrations. We discuss the hydration dynamics results of this model protein system in the context of glassy systems, protein function, and protein-protein interfaces

  12. SPOT-Based Sub-Field Level Monitoring of Vegetation Cover Dynamics: A Case of Irrigated Croplands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Dubovyk

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Acquiring multi-temporal spatial information on vegetation condition at scales appropriate for site-specific agricultural management is often complicated by the need for meticulous field measurements. Understanding spatial/temporal crop cover heterogeneity within irrigated croplands may support sustainable land use, specifically in areas affected by land degradation due to secondary soil salinization. This study demonstrates the use of multi-temporal, high spatial resolution (10 m SPOT-4/5 image data in an integrated change vector analysis and spectral mixture analysis (CVA-SMA procedure. This procedure was implemented with the principal objective of mapping sub-field vegetation cover dynamics in irrigated lowland areas within the lowerlands of the Amu Darya River. CVA intensity and direction were calculated separately for the periods of 1998–2006 and 2006–2010. Cumulative change intensity and the overall directional trend were also derived for the entire observation period of 1998–2010. Results show that most of the vector changes were observed between 1998 and 2006; persistent conditions were seen within the study region during the 2006–2010 period. A decreasing vegetation cover trend was identified within 38% of arable land. Areas of decreasing vegetation cover were located principally in the irrigation system periphery where deficient water supply and low soil quality lead to substandard crop development. During the 2006–2010 timeframe, degraded crop cover conditions persisted in 37% of arable land. Vegetation cover increased in 25% of the arable land where irrigation water supply was adequate. This high sub-field crop performance spatial heterogeneity clearly indicates that current land management practices are inefficient. Such information can provide the basis for implementing and adapting irrigation applications and salt leaching techniques to site-specific conditions and thereby make a significant contribution to sustainable

  13. A simplified kinetic and mass transfer modelling of the thermal hydrolysis of vegetable oils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forero-Hernandez, Hector Alexander; Jones, Mark Nicholas; Sarup, Bent

    2017-01-01

    This work presents a combined modelling approach to investigate the kinetics and masstransfer effects on the hydrolysis of vegetable oils under subcritical conditions. The primary purpose of this simplified model is to interpret experimental data collected from typical batch tests and to estimate...... parameters for the proposed model. Due to its heterogeneous nature, the hydrolysis reaction is affected not only by the chemical kinetics but also by the rate of mass transfer between the oil and water as well as their specific contact area in this two phase emulsion. Considering these properties, a model...... and improvement accompanied by Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. Since the lack of experimental data is a crucial issue in the hydrolysis of vegetable oils, this model-based analysis of data is of substantial value to provide necessary information for detailed modeling and characterization of the process....

  14. Spatial pattern formation of coastal vegetation in response to external gradients and positive feedbacks affecting soil porewater salinity: A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, J.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Smith, T. J.; Teh, S.Y.; Koh, H. L.

    2012-01-01

    Coastal vegetation of South Florida typically comprises salinity-tolerant mangroves bordering salinity-intolerant hardwood hammocks and fresh water marshes. Two primary ecological factors appear to influence the maintenance of mangrove/hammock ecotones against changes that might occur due to disturbances. One of these is a gradient in one or more environmental factors. The other is the action of positive feedback mechanisms, in which each vegetation community influences its local environment to favor itself, reinforcing the boundary between communities. The relative contributions of these two factors, however, can be hard to discern. A spatially explicit individual-based model of vegetation, coupled with a model of soil hydrology and salinity dynamics is presented here to simulate mangrove/hammock ecotones in the coastal margin habitats of South Florida. The model simulation results indicate that an environmental gradient of salinity, caused by tidal flux, is the key factor separating vegetation communities, while positive feedback involving the different interaction of each vegetation type with the vadose zone salinity increases the sharpness of boundaries, and maintains the ecological resilience of mangrove/hammock ecotones against small disturbances. Investigation of effects of precipitation on positive feedback indicates that the dry season, with its low precipitation, is the period of strongest positive feedback. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. (outside the USA).

  15. Vegetation in drylands: Effects on wind flow and aeolian sediment transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drylands are characterised by patchy vegetation, erodible surfaces and erosive aeolian processes. Empirical and modelling studies have shown that vegetation elements provide drag on the overlying airflow, thus affecting wind velocity profiles and altering erosive dynamics on desert surfaces. However...

  16. Global sampling of the seasonal changes in vegetation biophysical properties and associated carbon flux dynamics: using the synergy of information captured by spectral time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, P. K. E.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Middleton, E.; Voorhis, S.; Landis, D.

    2016-12-01

    Spatial heterogeneity and seasonal dynamics in vegetation function contribute significantly to the uncertainties in regional and global CO2 budgets. High spectral resolution imaging spectroscopy ( 10 nm, 400-2500 nm) provides an efficient tool for synoptic evaluation of the factors significantly affecting the ability of the vegetation to sequester carbon and to reflect radiation, due to changes in vegetation chemical and structural composition. EO-1 Hyperion has collected more than 15 years of repeated observations for vegetation studies, and currently Hyperion time series are available for study of vegetation carbon dynamics at a number of FLUX sites. This study presents results from the analysis of EO-1 Hyperion and FLUX seasonal composites for a range of ecosystems across the globe. Spectral differences and seasonal trends were evaluated for each vegetation type and specific phenology. Evaluating the relationships between CO2 flux parameters (e.g., Net ecosystem production - NEP; Gross Ecosystem Exchange - GEE, CO2 flux, μmol m-2 s-1) and spectral parameters for these very different ecosystems, high correlations were established to parameters associated with canopy water and chlorophyll content for deciduous, and photosynthetic function for conifers. Imaging spectrometry provided high spatial resolution maps of CO2 fluxes absorbed by vegetation, and was efficient in tracing seasonal flux dynamics. This study will present examples for key ecosystem tipes to demonstrate the ability of imaging spectrometry and EO-1 Hyperion to map and compare CO2 flux dynamics across the globe.

  17. [Research on the behavior of fruit and vegetable intake in adolescents with Transtheoretical Model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chen-Jia; Xu, Liang-Wen; Qu, Xu-Ping; Yang, Qi-Fa; Hu, Han-Qiong; Xu, Dong-Ming

    2010-05-01

    To study the current situation and factors influencing the behavior of fruit and vegetable intake in adolescents, and to discuss health education strategy related to the behavior. 1677 students were selected from primary school and middle school in urban area of Hangzhou by a multistage sampling method. The behavior of fruit and vegetable intake was surveyed by questionnaires of the patient-centered assessment and counseling for exercise plus nutrition project (PACE+) for adolescent-scale of fruit and vegetable consumption, and analyzed by Transtheoretical Model on the servings of intake, the stage of change, process of change, decisional balance and the current status of self-efficacy. The average intake of fruit and vegetable in adolescents was (3.21 +/- 1.50) servings per day ("one serving" means 100 g cooked vegetable or 100 g fruit). The behavior of consuming fruit and vegetable in most of the adolescents was in the contemplation stage, accounting for 36.91% (619/1677). The process of behavior change, decisional balance (Pros) and self-efficacy existed a positive correlation with the process of stage (r(process) = 0.38, r(decisional balance (Pros)) = 0.26, r(self-efficacy) = 0.33, t values were 16.78, 11.02 and 14.31, P < 0.05). The servings of fruit and vegetable intake existed a positive correlation with stage transition and self-efficacy (beta(stage transition) = 0.665, t = 35.07, P < 0.05; beta(self-efficacy) = 0.050, t = 2.63, P < 0.05), and existed a negative correlation with decisional balance (Cons) (beta(decisional balance (Cons)) = -0.051, t = -2.84, P < 0.05). Fruit and vegetable intake of these adolescents are under the recommended dietary intake. Along with behavior stage development and self-efficacy improvement, the intake of fruit and vegetable also increased correspondingly. Intervention strategies should aim at improving the awareness of adolescents on the health benefits of fruit and vegetable intake and promoting their confidence to reach

  18. Combining vegetation index and model inversion methods for theextraction of key vegetation biophysical parameters using Terra and Aqua MODIS reflectance data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houborg, Rasmus Møller; Søgaard, Henrik; Bøgh, Eva

    2007-01-01

    for the inversion of a canopy reflectance model using Terra and Aqua MODIS multi-spectral, multi-temporal, and multi-angle reflectance observations to aid the determination of vegetation-specific physiological and structural canopy parameters. Land cover and site-specific inversion modeling was applied...

  19. Approximate Mathematical Modeling of Osmotic Dehydration of Cone-Shaped Fruits and Vegetables in Hypertonic Solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sirousazar

    2017-01-01

    Water loss kinetics in osmotic dehydration of cone-shaped fruits and vegetables was modeled on the basis of diffusion mechanism, using the Fick’s second law. The model was developed by taking into account the influences of the fruit geometrical characteristics, initial water content of fruit, water diffusion coefficient in fruit, and the water concentration in hypertonic solution. Based on the obtained model, it was shown that the water diffusion coefficient and the initial water concentratio...

  20. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  1. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2012-12-01

    We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

  2. Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions for southern Appalachian upland hardwoods with a modified mortality model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip J. Radtke; Nathan D. Herring; David L. Loftis; Chad E. Keyser

    2012-01-01

    Prediction accuracy for projected basal area and trees per acre was assessed for the growth and yield model of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Southern Variant (FVS-Sn). Data for comparison with FVS-Sn predictions were compiled from a collection of n

  3. Using FLUXNET data to improve models of springtime vegetation activity onset in forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melaas, E.; Richardson, A.; Friedl, M.; Dragoni, D.; Gough, C.; Herbst, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate change and variability, and is a first order control on the carbon budget of forest ecosystems. Robust representation of phenology is therefore needed to support model-based projections of how climate change will affect ecosystem function. A variety of

  4. Network based early warning indicators of vegetation changes in a land–atmosphere model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, Z.; Dekker, S.C.; Rietkerk, M.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Numerous model studies demonstrate that ecosystems might not shift smoothly with a gradual change in resource concentration. At specific points, vegetation can suddenly shift from one stable state to another. To predict such undesirable shifts, statistical indicators are proposed for early

  5. Coastal marsh degradation: modeling the influence of vegetation die-off patterns on flow and sedimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepers, Lennert; Wang, Chen; Kirwan, Matthew; Belluco, Enrica; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Temmerman, Stijn

    2014-05-01

    erosion, which may explain their lower surface elevation. Therefore the establishment of marsh plants will be unfavorable. So far, however, this hypothesis has not been verified. In order to investigate the influence of these different types of pool patterns on spatial flow and sedimentation patterns, we used an existing hydrodynamic and sediment transport model (Delft3D) that has been calibrated and validated against field data on tidal marsh flow and sedimentation. The model reproduces the bio-geomorphologic effects of complete vegetation removal, but different pool patterns have not been studied until now. By simulating different pool patterns, we are able to verify our hypothesis regarding elevation changes and marsh recovery potential in degraded marsh pools. This highlights the importance of bio-geomorphologic feedbacks for marsh degradation and recovery.

  6. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in

  7. Monitoring Urbanization-Related Land Cover Change on the U.S. Great Plains and Impacts on Remotely Sensed Vegetation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krehbiel, C. P.; Jackson, T.; Henebry, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently in an era of rapid urban growth with >50% of global population living in urban areas. Urbanization occurs alongside urban population growth, as cities expand to meet the demands of increasing population. Consequently, there is a need for remote sensing research to detect, monitor, and measure urbanization and its impacts on the biosphere. Here we used MODIS and Landsat data products to (1) detect urbanization-related land cover changes, (2) investigate urbanization-related impacts on land surface phenology (LSP) across rural to urban gradients and (3) explore fractional vegetation and impervious surface area regionally across the US Great Plains and within 14 cities in this region. We used the NLCD Percent Impervious Surface Area (%ISA) and Land Cover Type (LCT) products from 2001, 2006, and 2011 for 30m classification of the peri-urban environment. We investigated the impacts of urbanization-related land cover change on urban LSP at 30m resolution using the NDVI product from Web Enabled Landsat Data (http://weld.cr.usgs.gov) with accumulated growing degree-days calculated from first-order weather stations. We fitted convex quadratic LSP models to a decade (2003-2012) of observations to yield these phenometrics: modeled peak NDVI, time (thermal and calendar) to modeled peak, duration of season (DOS), and model fit. We compared our results to NDVI from MODIS NBAR (500m) and we explored the utility of 4 μm radiance (MODIS band 23) at 1 km resolution to characterize fractional vegetation dynamics in and around urbanized areas. Across all 14 cities we found increases in urbanized area (>25 %ISA) exceeding 10% from 2001-2011. Using LSP phenometrics, we were able to detect changes from cropland to suburban LCTs. In general we found negative relationships between DOS and distance from city center. We found a distinct seasonal cycle of MIR radiance over cropland LCTs due to the spectral contrast between bare soils and green vegetation.

  8. Cross-correlation and time history analysis of laser dynamic specklegram imaging for quality evaluation and assessment of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel, Boni; Retheesh, R.; Zaheer Ansari, Md; Nampoori, V. P. N.; Radhakrishnan, P.; Mujeeb, A.

    2017-10-01

    Quality evaluation of fruits and vegetables is of great concern as there is a shortage of unadulterated items on the market. Even unadulterated fruits and vegetables, especially those with soft tissue, cannot be stored for longer times due to physical and chemical changes. Moreover, damage can occur during harvest and in the post-harvest period, while preserving or transporting the fruits and vegetables. This work describes the use of a laser dynamic speckle imaging technique as a powerful optoelectronic tool for the quality evaluation of certain seasonal fruits and vegetables in an Indian market. A simple optical configuration was designed for developing the dynamic speckle imagining system to record dynamic specklegrams of the specimens under different conditions. These images were analysed using a cross-correlation function and the temporal history of specklegrams. The technique can be effectively adapted to the industrial environment and would be beneficial for all stakeholders in the field.

  9. Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

    2006-01-01

    We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

  10. High spatial resolution three-dimensional mapping of vegetation spectral dynamics using computer vision and hobbyist unmanned aerial vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandois, J. P.; Ellis, E. C.

    2013-12-01

    High spatial resolution three-dimensional (3D) measurements of vegetation by remote sensing are advancing ecological research and environmental management. However, substantial economic and logistical costs limit this application, especially for observing phenological dynamics in ecosystem structure and spectral traits. Here we demonstrate a new aerial remote sensing system enabling routine and inexpensive aerial 3D measurements of canopy structure and spectral attributes, with properties similar to those of LIDAR, but with RGB (red-green-blue) spectral attributes for each point, enabling high frequency observations within a single growing season. This 'Ecosynth' methodology applies photogrammetric ''Structure from Motion'' computer vision algorithms to large sets of highly overlapping low altitude (USA. Ecosynth canopy height maps (CHMs) were strong predictors of field-measured tree heights (R2 0.63 to 0.84) and were highly correlated with a LIDAR CHM (R 0.87) acquired 4 days earlier, though Ecosynth-based estimates of aboveground biomass densities included significant errors (31 - 36% of field-based estimates). Repeated scanning of a 0.25 ha forested area at six different times across a 16 month period revealed ecologically significant dynamics in canopy color at different heights and a structural shift upward in canopy density, as demonstrated by changes in vertical height profiles of point density and relative RGB brightness. Changes in canopy relative greenness were highly correlated (R2 = 0.88) with MODIS NDVI time series for the same area and vertical differences in canopy color revealed the early green up of the dominant canopy species, Liriodendron tulipifera, strong evidence that Ecosynth time series measurements capture vegetation structural and spectral dynamics at the spatial scale of individual trees. Observing canopy phenology in 3D at high temporal resolutions represents a breakthrough in forest ecology. Inexpensive user-deployed technologies for

  11. Wind erosion in semiarid landscapes: Predictive models and remote sensing methods for the influence of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musick, H. Brad

    1993-01-01

    The objectives of this research are: to develop and test predictive relations for the quantitative influence of vegetation canopy structure on wind erosion of semiarid rangeland soils, and to develop remote sensing methods for measuring the canopy structural parameters that determine sheltering against wind erosion. The influence of canopy structure on wind erosion will be investigated by means of wind-tunnel and field experiments using structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments using model roughness elements to simulate plant canopies. The canopy structural variables identified by the wind-tunnel and field experiments as important in determining vegetative sheltering against wind erosion will then be measured at a number of naturally vegetated field sites and compared with estimates of these variables derived from analysis of remotely sensed data.

  12. Managing Understory Vegetation for Maintaining Productivity in Black Spruce Forests: A Synthesis within a Multi-Scale Research Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Joanisse

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable management of boreal ecosystems involves the establishment of vigorous tree regeneration after harvest. However, two groups of understory plants influence regeneration success in eastern boreal Canada. Ericaceous shrubs are recognized to rapidly dominate susceptible boreal sites after harvest. Such dominance reduces recruitment and causes stagnant conifer growth, lasting decades on some sites. Additionally, peat accumulation due to Sphagnum growth after harvest forces the roots of regenerating conifers out of the relatively nutrient rich and warm mineral soil into the relatively nutrient poor and cool organic layer, with drastic effects on growth. Shifts from once productive black spruce forests to ericaceous heaths or paludified forests affect forest productivity and biodiversity. Under natural disturbance dynamics, fires severe enough to substantially reduce the organic layer thickness and affect ground cover species are required to establish a productive regeneration layer on such sites. We succinctly review how understory vegetation influences black spruce ecosystem dynamics in eastern boreal Canada, and present a multi-scale research model to understand, limit the loss and restore productive and diverse ecosystems in this region. Our model integrates knowledge of plant-level mechanisms in the development of silvicultural tools to sustain productivity. Fundamental knowledge is integrated at stand, landscape, regional and provincial levels to understand the distribution and dynamics of ericaceous shrubs and paludification processes and to support tactical and strategic forest management. The model can be adapted and applied to other natural resource management problems, in other biomes.

  13. Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2010-01-01

    To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

  14. Evapotranspiration variability and its association with vegetation dynamics in the Nile Basin, 2002–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemu, Henok; Senay, Gabriel B.; Kaptue, Armel T.; Kovalskyy, Valeriy

    2014-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component in land-atmosphere interactions. In drylands, over 90% of annual rainfall evaporates. The Nile Basin in Africa is about 42% dryland in a region experiencing rapid population growth and development. The relationship of ET with climate, vegetation and land cover in the basin during 2002–2011 is analyzed using thermal-based Simplified Surface Energy Balance Operational (SSEBop) ET, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based MODIS Terrestrial (MOD16) ET, MODIS-derived NDVI as a proxy for vegetation productivity and rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Interannual variability and trends are analyzed using established statistical methods. Analysis based on thermal-based ET revealed that >50% of the study area exhibited negative ET anomalies for 7 years (2009, driest), while >60% exhibited positive ET anomalies for 3 years (2007, wettest). NDVI-based monthly ET correlated strongly (r > 0.77) with vegetation than thermal-based ET (0.52 < r < 0.73) at p < 0.001. Climate-zone averaged thermal-based ET anomalies positively correlated (r = 0.6, p < 0.05) with rainfall in 4 of the 9 investigated climate zones. Thermal-based and NDVI-based ET estimates revealed minor discrepancies over rainfed croplands (60 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET), but a significant divergence over wetlands (440 mm/yr higher for thermal-based ET). Only 5% of the study area exhibited statistically significant trends in ET.

  15. Stand structure and vegetation dynamics of a subalpine treed fen in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, J.B. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1997-06-01

    The tree population size structure and relationship between tree diameter and age were examined in a subalpine fen and surrounding Picea-Abies forest in northern Colorado. The fen grades from a sedge fen, through an ecotone, to a treed fen (i.e. fen colonized by trees). Tree growth rate varies across the vegetational gradient, with the sedge fen having the slowest growth, and the upland forest having the fastest growth. Differences in growth rate are related to the average size of peat hummocks, with areas containing tall hummocks exhibiting the highest tree growth rates. Size structures display the characteristic reverse-J distribution generally indicative of stable populations, but forest vegetation is expanding into the open regions of the fen, and within the treed fen an increase in Abies lasiocarpa is occurring. These changes are primarily attributed to a positive feedback situation wherein the fen`s surface is built up by peat accumulation. Distinct hummocks form first on the open fen but then coalesce to form raised peat islands in the treed fen. This new substrate provides habitat with a comparatively low water table and allows the growth of mesophytic forest vegetation. A pathway for this vegetational development is proposed. 40 refs., 2 figs.

  16. Vegetation dynamics at the upper elevational limit of vascular plants in Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolezal, Jiri; Dvorsky, Miroslav; Kopecky, Martin; Liancourt, Pierre; Hiiesalu, Inga; Macek, Martin; Altman, Jan; Chlumska, Zuzana; Rehakova, Klara; Capkova, Katerina; Borovec, Jakub; Mudrak, Ondrej; Wild, Jan; Schweingruber, Fritz

    2016-05-04

    A rapid warming in Himalayas is predicted to increase plant upper distributional limits, vegetation cover and abundance of species adapted to warmer climate. We explored these predictions in NW Himalayas, by revisiting uppermost plant populations after ten years (2003-2013), detailed monitoring of vegetation changes in permanent plots (2009-2012), and age analysis of plants growing from 5500 to 6150 m. Plant traits and microclimate variables were recorded to explain observed vegetation changes. The elevation limits of several species shifted up to 6150 m, about 150 vertical meters above the limit of continuous plant distribution. The plant age analysis corroborated the hypothesis of warming-driven uphill migration. However, the impact of warming interacts with increasing precipitation and physical disturbance. The extreme summer snowfall event in 2010 is likely responsible for substantial decrease in plant cover in both alpine and subnival vegetation and compositional shift towards species preferring wetter habitats. Simultaneous increase in summer temperature and precipitation caused rapid snow melt and, coupled with frequent night frosts, generated multiple freeze-thaw cycles detrimental to subnival plants. Our results suggest that plant species responses to ongoing climate change will not be unidirectional upward range shifts but rather multi-dimensional, species-specific and spatially variable.

  17. Dynamics of woody vegetation in a semi-arid savanna, with a focus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Increases in the tree:grass ratio with accompanying changes in herbaceous composition, called bush or shrub encroachment, is a worldwide phenomenon in ... Acacia mellifera-dominated savannas in the Northern Cape, South Africa, were investigated by means of vegetation classification and analyses of sequential aerial ...

  18. Using repeat electrical resistivity surveys to assess heterogeneity in soil moisture dynamics under contrasting vegetation types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Jonathan; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Bradford, John; Soulsby, Chris

    2018-04-01

    As the relationship between vegetation and soil moisture is complex and reciprocal, there is a need to understand how spatial patterns in soil moisture influence the distribution of vegetation, and how the structure of vegetation canopies and root networks regulates the partitioning of precipitation. Spatial patterns of soil moisture are often difficult to visualise as usually, soil moisture is measured at point scales, and often difficult to extrapolate. Here, we address the difficulties in collecting large amounts of spatial soil moisture data through a study combining plot- and transect-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys to estimate soil moisture in a 3.2 km2 upland catchment in the Scottish Highlands. The aim was to assess the spatio-temporal variability in soil moisture under Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris) and heather moorland shrubs (Calluna vulgaris); the two dominant vegetation types in the Scottish Highlands. The study focussed on one year of fortnightly ERT surveys. The surveyed resistivity data was inverted and Archie's law was used to calculate volumetric soil moisture by estimating parameters and comparing against field measured data. Results showed that spatial soil moisture patterns were more heterogeneous in the forest site, as were patterns of wetting and drying, which can be linked to vegetation distribution and canopy structure. The heather site showed a less heterogeneous response to wetting and drying, reflecting the more uniform vegetation cover of the shrubs. Comparing soil moisture temporal variability during growing and non-growing seasons revealed further contrasts: under the heather there was little change in soil moisture during the growing season. Greatest changes in the forest were in areas where the trees were concentrated reflecting water uptake and canopy partitioning. Such differences have implications for climate and land use changes; increased forest cover can lead to greater spatial variability, greater

  19. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

  20. A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect

  1. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome†

    OpenAIRE

    Estes, Anne M.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1) niche availability and habitat space and 2) a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determi...

  2. Stem breakage of salt marsh vegetation under wave forcing: A field and model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuik, Vincent; Suh Heo, Hannah Y.; Zhu, Zhenchang; Borsje, Bas W.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    2018-01-01

    One of the services provided by coastal ecosystems is wave attenuation by vegetation, and subsequent reduction of wave loads on flood defense structures. Therefore, stability of vegetation under wave forcing is an important factor to consider. This paper presents a model which determines the wave load that plant stems can withstand before they break or fold. This occurs when wave-induced bending stresses exceed the flexural strength of stems. Flexural strength was determined by means of three-point-bending tests, which were carried out for two common salt marsh species: Spartina anglica (common cord-grass) and Scirpus maritimus (sea club-rush), at different stages in the seasonal cycle. Plant stability is expressed in terms of a critical orbital velocity, which combines factors that contribute to stability: high flexural strength, large stem diameter, low vegetation height, high flexibility and a low drag coefficient. In order to include stem breakage in the computation of wave attenuation by vegetation, the stem breakage model was implemented in a wave energy balance. A model parameter was calibrated so that the predicted stem breakage corresponded with the wave-induced loss of biomass that occurred in the field. The stability of Spartina is significantly higher than that of Scirpus, because of its higher strength, shorter stems, and greater flexibility. The model is validated by applying wave flume tests of Elymus athericus (sea couch), which produced reasonable results with regards to the threshold of folding and overall stem breakage percentage, despite the high flexibility of this species. Application of the stem breakage model will lead to a more realistic assessment of the role of vegetation for coastal protection.

  3. The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, Peter; Glienke, Susanne; Lawrence, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Solar Radiation Management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to partly counteract global warming. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulated the climate consequences of a number of SRM techniques, but the effects on vegetation have not yet been thoroughly studied. Here, the vegetation response to the idealized GeoMIP G1 experiment is analyzed, in which a reduction of the solar constant counterbalances the radiative effects of quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations; the results from eight fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) are included. For most models and regions, changes in net primary productivity (NPP) are dominated by the increase in CO2, via the CO2 fertilization effect. As SRM will lower temperatures, in high latitudes this will reverse gains in NPP from the lifting of temperature limitations. In low latitudes this cooling relative to the 4xCO2 simulation decreases plant respiration whilst having little effect on gross primary productivity, increasing NPP. Despite reductions in precipitation in most regions in response to SRM, runoff and NPP increase in many regions including those previously highlighted as potentially being at risk of drought under SRM. This is due to simultaneous reductions in evaporation and increases in water use efficiency by plants due to higher CO2 concentrations. The relative differences between models in the vegetation response are substantially larger than the differences in their climate responses. The largest differences between models are for those with and without a nitrogen-cycle, with a much smaller CO2 fertilization effect for the former. These results suggest that until key vegetation processes are integrated into ESM predictions, the vegetation response to SRM will remain highly uncertain.

  4. A homeostatic-partly dynamic model for Cs-137 in trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frissel, M. J.

    1994-01-01

    To describe the uptake of Cs-137 (hereafter only called Cs) two types of models seem most promising: the simple concentration ratio model and the homeostatic model. The first one calculates the concentration of Cs in the vegetation from the Cs concentration in the soil by applying a multiplication factor which is often called a transfer factor. There is no dynamics in the system, the transfer factor or concentration ratio is a constant, which may depend on the ecological system under study. It is often applied to annual crops. The second type of model assumes that the Cs/K ratio in the soil determines the Cs/K ratio in the vegetation. Also this model is usually static. By taking into account variations of the Cs/K ratio in the soil with time - e.g. as caused by K fertilization - it can be extended into a dynamic model. (author)

  5. Integrated Modeling of Solutions in the System of Distributing Logistics of a Fruit and Vegetable Cooperative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleksandr Velychko

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A mechanism of preparing rationalistic solutions in the system of distributing logistics of a fruit and vegetable cooperative has been studied considering possible alternatives and existing limitations. Belonging of separate operations of the fruit and vegetable cooperative to technological, logistical or marketing business processes has been identified. Expediency of the integrated use of logistical concept DRP, decision tree method and linear programming in management of the cooperative has been grounded. The model for preparing decisions on organizing sales of vegetables and fruit which is focused on minimization of costs of cooperative services and maximization of profits for members of the cooperation has been developed. The necessity to consider integrated model of differentiation on levels of post gathering processing and logistical service has been revealed. Methodology of representation in the economical-mathematical model of probabilities in the tree of decisions concerning the expected amount of sales and margin for members of the cooperative using different channels has been processed. A formula which enables scientists to describe limitations in linear programming concerning critical duration of providing harvest of vegetables and fruit after gathering towards a customer has been suggested.

  6. Formation of banded vegetation patterns resulted from interactions between sediment deposition and vegetation growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tousheng; Zhang, Huayong; Dai, Liming; Cong, Xuebing; Ma, Shengnan

    2018-03-01

    This research investigates the formation of banded vegetation patterns on hillslopes affected by interactions between sediment deposition and vegetation growth. The following two perspectives in the formation of these patterns are taken into consideration: (a) increased sediment deposition from plant interception, and (b) reduced plant biomass caused by sediment accumulation. A spatial model is proposed to describe how the interactions between sediment deposition and vegetation growth promote self-organization of banded vegetation patterns. Based on theoretical and numerical analyses of the proposed spatial model, vegetation bands can result from a Turing instability mechanism. The banded vegetation patterns obtained in this research resemble patterns reported in the literature. Moreover, measured by sediment dynamics, the variation of hillslope landform can be described. The model predicts how treads on hillslopes evolve with the banded patterns. Thus, we provide a quantitative interpretation for coevolution of vegetation patterns and landforms under effects of sediment redistribution. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  7. Interactions of Vegetation and Climate: Remote Observations, Earth System Models, and the Amazon Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, Gregory R.

    transitions in sign (greener when warmer or drier to greener when cooler or wetter) along an emergent line in climate space with a slope of about 59 mm/yr/°C, twice as steep as contours of aridity. The mismatch between these slopes is evidence at a global scale of the limitation of both water supply due to inefficiencies in plant access to rainfall, and plant physiological responses to atmospheric water demand. This empirical pattern can provide a functional constraint for process-based models, helping to improve predictions of the global-scale response of vegetation to a changing climate. In Chapter 2, we use observations of vegetation interaction with the physical environment to identify where ecosystem functioning is well simulated in an ensemble of Earth system models. We leverage this data-model comparison to hypothesize which physiological mechanisms--photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability--dominate the ecosystem response in places with different climates. The models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem function across climate space except for simulating generally lower leaf area during warmer years in places with hot wet climates. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models. Finally, models and observations share an abrupt threshold between dry regions and wet regions where strong positive vegetation response to precipitation falls to nearly zero in places receiving around 1000 mm/year. In Chapter 3, we investigate how ecoclimate interactions change

  8. Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

    2014-01-01

    We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    More than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface is covered by grassland, which is also the major part (~ 70 %) of the agricultural area. Most of this area is used for livestock production in different degrees of intensity. The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (Sitch et al., Global Change Biology, 2003; Bondeau et al., Global Change Biology, 2007) is one of few process-based model that simulates biomass production on managed grasslands at the global scale. The implementation of managed grasslands and its evaluation has received little attention so far, as reference data on grassland productivity are scarce and the definition of grassland extent and usage are highly uncertain. However, grassland productivity is related to large areas, and strongly influences global estimates of carbon and water budgets and should thus be improved. Plants are implemented in LPJmL in an aggregated form as plant functional types assuming that processes concerning carbon and water fluxes are quite similar between species of the same type. Therefore, the parameterization of a functional type is possible with parameters in a physiologically meaningful range of values. The actual choice of the parameter values from the possible and reasonable phase space should satisfy the condition of the best fit of model results and measured data. In order to improve the parameterization of managed grass we follow a combined procedure using model output and measured data of carbon and water fluxes. By comparing carbon and water fluxes simultaneously, we expect well-balanced refinements and avoid over-tuning of the model in only one direction. The comparison of annual biomass from grassland to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) per country provide an overview about the order of magnitude and the identification of deviations. The comparison of daily net primary productivity, soil respiration and water fluxes at specific sites (FluxNet Data) provides

  10. Sustainable crop models for fruit, vegetable and flower quality productions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inglese Paolo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable development is a paradigm that has evolved over the time, since the ideas of socially acceptable and compatible development, on which it was originally based, are now supported by the more recent notions of ecological equilibria and production process economy, both of which need to be also preserved. Environmental and health safety, rational use of the natural resources and technological tools, upkeep of high social growth rates and respect of a social equity are the basis of the sustainability for any production process, including the agriculture. The new globalization framework has penalized small farms and, at the same time, has put serious constraints to the development of stronger economic systems (medium/large farms, as well. As consequence, the EU has outlined several strategic programs to support small agricultural systems in marginal areas by: 1 strengthening all the quality- related aspects of agricultural production, including nutritional and cultural traits associated to local, typical and in some cases to neglected crops; 2 improving traditional cultural practices by adapting the cropping cycles and fomenting new partnerships between the different parts of the production chain, as for example; promotion of small horticultural chains. Specific political actions for the horticultural production sector have also been developed. Some of these policies are specifically addressed to preserve the biodiversity and to create quality labels certifying typical and/or organic products. All of these are possible strategies that may counteract and cope with the globalization process and increase the competitiveness of many production systems especially those performed by local and small entrepreneurs. New sustainable development models are required by both the market and the implicit requirements of the production system, inside a context on which Europe must face with new emerging economies with lower production costs, by increasing

  11. Variations in annual water-energy balance and their correlations with vegetation and soil moisture dynamics: A case study in the Wei River Basin, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Shengzhi; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Zhao, Menglong; Meng, Erhao

    2017-03-01

    It is of importance to investigate watershed water-energy balance variations and to explore their correlations with vegetation and soil moisture dynamics, which helps better understand the interplays between underlying surface dynamics and the terrestrial water cycle. The heuristic segmentation method was adopted to identify change points in the parameter to series in Fu's equation belonging to the Budyko framework in the Wei River Basin (WRB) and its sub-basins aiming to examine the validity of stationary assumptions. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations between vegetation and soil moisture dynamics and to variations. Results indicated that (1) the omega variations in the WRB are significant, with some change points identified except for the sub-basin above Zhangjiashan, implying that the stationarity of omega series in the WRB is invalid except for the sub-basin above Zhangjiashan; (2) the correlations between soil moisture series and to series are weaker than those between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) series and omega series; (3) vegetation dynamics show significantly negative correlations with omega variations in 1983-2003 with a 4-8 year signal in the whole WRB, and both vegetation and soil moisture dynamics exert strong impacts on the parameter omega changes. This study helps understanding the interactions between underlying land surface dynamics and watershed water-energy balance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund

    2007-01-01

    The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...

  13. Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

    2002-01-01

    In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

  14. Spatiotemporal Dynamics in Vegetation GPP over the Great Khingan Mountains Using GLASS Products from 1982 to 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Hu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Gross primary productivity (GPP is an important parameter that represents the productivity of vegetation and responses to various ecological environments. The Greater Khingan Mountain (GKM is one of the most important state-owned forest bases, and boreal forests, including the largest primeval cold-temperature bright coniferous forest in China, are widely distributed in the GKM. This study aimed to reveal spatiotemporal vegetation variations in the GKM on the basis of GPP products that were generated by the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS program from 1982 to 2015. First, we explored the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation across the GKM. Then we analyzed the relationships between GPP variation and driving factors, including meteorological elements, growing season length (GSL, and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR, to investigate the dominant factor for GPP dynamics. Results demonstrated that (1 the spatial distribution of accumulated GPP (AG in spring, summer, autumn, and the growing season varied due to three main reasons: understory vegetation, altitude, and land cover; (2 interannual AG in summer, autumn, and the growing season significantly increased at the regional scale during the past 34 years under climate warming and drying; (3 interannual changes of accumulated GPP in the growing season (AGG at the pixel scale displayed a rapid expansion in areas with a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05 during the period of 1982–2015 and this trend was caused by the natural forest protection project launched in 1998; and finally, (4 an analysis of driving factors showed that daily sunshine duration in summer was the most important factor for GPP in the GKM and this is different from previous studies, which reported that the GSL plays a crucial role in other areas.

  15. Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2017-01-01

    and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

  16. Caesium dynamics in the peats and associated vegetation of northern Greece and northern Scotland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heaton, B.; Mitchell, R.D.J.; Killham, K.; Veresoglou, D.S.

    1990-01-01

    Sequential analyses have shown that Chernobyl-derived caesium has been largely retained in Greek basin peats (highly cultivated, base-rich, sedge peats) and retained/cycled in Scottish upland peats (uncultivated, base-poor, blanket peats). To investigate the mechanisms of retention and cycling in the Scottish peat/vegetation system, a laboratory experiment was carried out involving 'microcosms' intact peat cores. Festuca ovina was grown from seed in the cores prior to nebuliser-application of simulated rain containing caesium-134. The major factors investigated were competitive ion exchange from ammonium (designed to simulate animal waste inputs), freeze-thaw activity, and cropping (designed to simulate upland grazing). The effects of these factors are discussed in relation to the physio-cochemical and biological properties of the peat and vegetation and to our observations of the movement of caesium in the field. (author)

  17. Regeneration after fire in campo rupestre : Short- and long-term vegetation dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Le Stradic , Soizig; Hernandez , Pauline; Fernandes , Geraldo Wilson; Buisson , Elise

    2018-01-01

    International audience; The Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) is the second largest biome in Brazil, covering 22% of the country, and campo rupestre is one of the most biodiverse ecosystem. Campo rupestre are extremely old mountaintop tropical ecosystems, composed of a mosaic of herbaceous, shrubland and savanna vegetation, generally located above 900 m above sea level characterized by shallow, acidic and nutrient-poor soils. In the context of increased land-use changes, effective conservation and ...

  18. Quantification of the impact of macrophytes on oxygen dynamics and nitrogen retention in a vegetated lowland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desmet, N. J. S.; Van Belleghem, S.; Seuntjens, P.; Bouma, T. J.; Buis, K.; Meire, P.

    When macrophytes are growing in the river, the vegetation induces substantial changes to the water quality. Some effects are the result of direct interactions, such as photosynthetic activity or nutrient uptake, whereas others may be attributed to indirect effects of the water plants on hydrodynamics and river processes. This research focused on the direct effect of macrophytes on oxygen dynamics and nutrient cycling. Discharge, macrophyte biomass density, basic water quality, dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations were in situ monitored throughout the year in a lowland river (Nete catchment, Belgium). In addition, various processes were investigated in more detail in multiple ex situ experiments. The field and aquaria measurement results clearly demonstrated that aquatic plants can exert considerable impact on dissolved oxygen dynamics in a lowland river. When the river was dominated by macrophytes, dissolved oxygen concentrations varied from 5 to 10 mg l -1. Considering nutrient retention, it was shown that the investigated in-stream macrophytes could take up dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the water column at rates of 33-50 mg N kgdry matter-1 h. And DIN fluxes towards the vegetation were found to vary from 0.03 to 0.19 g N ha -1 h -1 in spring and summer. Compared to the measured changes in DIN load over the river stretch, it means that about 3-13% of the DIN retention could be attributed to direct nitrogen uptake from the water by macrophytes. Yet, the role of macrophytes in rivers should not be underrated as aquatic vegetation also exerts considerable indirect effects that may have a greater impact than the direct fixation of nutrients into the plant biomass.

  19. Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

  20. Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Binayak S Choudhury

    2018-03-16

    Mar 16, 2018 ... Accelerated expansion of the Universe; quintessence; dynamical system; Friedmann–Lemaitre–. Robertson–Walker ... accepted theoretical model. One of the .... Thus, quintessence loses its self-strength and gives dark matter.

  1. Modeling of truck's braking dynamics with ABS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxym DYACHUK

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article some questions of ABS simulation on the basis of plane vehicle's dynamics and automatic modeling are considered. The author's algorithm of ABS modulators control is presented.

  2. Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-19

    one dimension that has recently been studied in the computer science community. The model involves movement with a speed proportional to a “fear...more realistic model of human locomotion. The movement of the criminal agents follows a biased Levy flight with step sizes distributed according to a...power-law distribution. The biased Brownian motion of the original model is then derived as a special case. Starting with an agent-based model, we

  3. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  4. Application of a plane-stratified emission model to predict the effects of vegetation in passive microwave radiometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lee

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the application to vegetation canopies of a coherent model for the propagation of electromagnetic radiation through a stratified medium. The resulting multi-layer vegetation model is plausibly realistic in that it recognises the dielectric permittivity of the vegetation matter, the mixing of the dielectric permittivities for vegetation and air within the canopy and, in simplified terms, the overall vertical distribution of dielectric permittivity and temperature through the canopy. Any sharp changes in the dielectric profile of the canopy resulted in interference effects manifested as oscillations in the microwave brightness temperature as a function of canopy height or look angle. However, when Gaussian broadening of the top and bottom of the canopy (reflecting the natural variability between plants was included within the model, these oscillations were eliminated. The model parameters required to specify the dielectric profile within the canopy, particularly the parameters that quantify the dielectric mixing between vegetation and air in the canopy, are not usually available in typical field experiments. Thus, the feasibility of specifying these parameters using an advanced single-criterion, multiple-parameter optimisation technique was investigated by automatically minimizing the difference between the modelled and measured brightness temperatures. The results imply that the mixing parameters can be so determined but only if other parameters that specify vegetation dry matter and water content are measured independently. The new model was then applied to investigate the sensitivity of microwave emission to specific vegetation parameters. Keywords: passive microwave, soil moisture, vegetation, SMOS, retrieval

  5. Linkage of a Physically Based Distributed Watershed Model and a Dynamic Plant Growth Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, Billy E; Coldren, Cade L

    2006-01-01

    The impact of hydrological alteration on vegetation and of vegetation on water quality can be greatly facilitated by linking existing water engines with general ecosystem models designed to make long...

  6. Bond graph modeling of nuclear reactor dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A tenth-order linear model of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) is developed using bond graph techniques. The model describes the nuclear heat generation process and the transfer of this heat to the reactor coolant. Comparisons between the calculated model response and test data from a small-scale PWR show the model to be an adequate representation of the actual plant dynamics. Possible application of the model in an advanced plant diagnostic system is discussed

  7. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  8. Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

    2009-04-01

    In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

  9. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

    2017-01-01

    By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

  10. Modeling tidal marsh distribution with sea-level rise: evaluating the role of vegetation, sediment, and upland habitat in marsh resiliency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schile, Lisa M; Callaway, John C; Morris, James T; Stralberg, Diana; Parker, V Thomas; Kelly, Maggi

    2014-01-01

    Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant productivity under increased inundation, and limited upland habitat for marsh migration. We examined marsh resiliency under these uncertainties using the Marsh Equilibrium Model, a mechanistic, elevation-based soil cohort model, using a rich data set of plant productivity and physical properties from sites across the estuarine salinity gradient. Four tidal marshes were chosen along this gradient: two islands and two with adjacent uplands. Varying century sea-level rise (52, 100, 165, 180 cm) and suspended sediment concentrations (100%, 50%, and 25% of current concentrations), we simulated marsh accretion across vegetated elevations for 100 years, applying the results to high spatial resolution digital elevation models to quantify potential changes in marsh distributions. At low rates of sea-level rise and mid-high sediment concentrations, all marshes maintained vegetated elevations indicative of mid/high marsh habitat. With century sea-level rise at 100 and 165 cm, marshes shifted to low marsh elevations; mid/high marsh elevations were found only in former uplands. At the highest century sea-level rise and lowest sediment concentrations, the island marshes became dominated by mudflat elevations. Under the same sediment concentrations, low salinity brackish marshes containing highly productive vegetation had slower elevation loss compared to more saline sites with lower productivity. A similar trend was documented when comparing against a marsh accretion model that did not model vegetation feedbacks. Elevation predictions using the Marsh Equilibrium Model highlight the importance of including vegetation responses to sea

  11. A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

  12. Impact of climate variability on terrestrial environment in Western Europe between 45 and 9 kyr cal. BP: vegetation dynamics recorded by the Bergsee Lake (Black Forest, Germany).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duprat-Oualid, Fanny; Begeot, Carole; Rius, Damien; Millet, Laurent; Magny, Michel

    2016-04-01

    Between 9 and 45 kyr cal. BP, two great transitions lead the global climate system to evolve from the Last-Glacial period (115-14.7 kyr cal. BP), to two successive warmer periods, the Late-Glacial Interstadial (14.7-11.7 kyr cal. BP) and the Holocene (11.7-0 kyr cal. BP). δ18O variations recorded in Greenland ice cores (GRIP & NGRIP) revealed high frequency climate variability within the Last Glacial. These reference isotopic records highlighted a succession of centennial-to-millennial warm/cold events, the so-called Greenland Interstadials (GI) and Greenland Stadials (GS). The number continental records about the period 14.7-0 kyr cal. BP is substantial. This allowed to understand the vegetation dynamics in response to climate changes this period at the North-Atlantic scale. However, sequences covering the glacial period (beyond 20 kyr cal.BP) remain rare, because of hiatuses mostly due to local glaciers. Therefore, sedimentary continuous records of vegetation dynamics are still needed to better understand climate changes during the Last Glacial in Western Europe (Heiri et al. 2014). Here we present a new high-resolution pollen record from Lake Bergsee (47°34'20''N, 7°56'11''E, 382 m a.s.l). This lake is located south of Black Forest and north of the Alps, beyond the zone of glaciers maximal extension. Therefore it could have recorded the whole last climatic cycle, i.e. 120-0 kyr cal. BP. In 2013, a 29 m long core was extracted from the Bergsee. According to the depth-age model based on 14C AMS dating and the Laacher See Tephra (LST), the record spans continuously at least the last 45 kyrs. The first series of pollen analysis, focused on the 45-9 kyr cal. BP time window, allows us to reconstruct a precise, faithful and continuous vegetation history at the centennial scale. This high temporal resolution enabled to assess the response of vegetation to secular climate events (e.g. GI-4 = 200 yrs). First, our results show that vegetation responded to climate

  13. Vegetation greenness modelling in response to interannual precipitation and temperature changes between 2001 and 2012 in Liao River Basin in Jilin Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiao-Sheng; Tang, Jie; Li, Zhao-Yang; Li, Hai-Yi

    2016-01-01

    Liao River basin in Jilin Province is the place of origin of the Dongliao River. This study gives a comprehensive analysis of the vegetation coverage in the region and provides a potential theoretical basis for ecological restoration. The seasonal variation of vegetation greenness and dynamics based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in major land cover types in the region was studied. Analyzing the relationship NDVI, temperature and rainfall, we derived a set of predictor variables from 2001 to 2012 using the MODIS Terra level 1 Product (MOD02QKM). The results showed a general increasing trend in NDVI value in the region, while 34.63 % of the region showed degradation. NDVI values begin to rise from April when plants are regreening and they drop in September when temperature are decreasing and the leaves are falling in the study area and temperature was found decreasing during the period of 2001-2012 while rainfall showed an increasing trend. This model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and the dynamic effects of temperature and rainfall. This study provided important data for the environmental protection of the basin area. And we hope to provide scientific a